Disaster Risk Reduction: Cases from Urban Africa

Disaster Risk Reduction Disaster Risk Reduction Cases from Urban Africa Edited by Mark Pelling and Ben Wisner with f...

Author: Mark Pelling | Ben Wisner | Anna Kajumulo Tibaijuka

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Disaster Risk Reduction

Disaster Risk Reduction Cases from Urban Africa

Edited by Mark Pelling and Ben Wisner with foreword by Anna Kajumulo Tibaijuka

London • Sterling, VA

First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2009 Copyright © Mark Pelling and Ben Wisner, 2009 All rights reserved ISBN:

978-1-84407-556-0

Typeset by MapSet Ltd, Gateshead, UK Printed and bound in the UK by MPG Books, Bodmin Cover design by Ruth Bateson For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan Dunstan House 14a St Cross Street London EC1N 8XA, UK Tel:+44 (0)20 7841 1930 Fax: +44 (0)20 7242 1474 Email: [email protected] Web: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan publishes in association with the International Institute for Environment and Development A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for Disaster risk reduction : cases from urban Africa / edited by Mark Pelling and Ben Wisner ; with foreword by Anna Kajumulo Tibaijuka p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-84407-556-0 (hardback) 1. Emergency management–Africa–Case studies. 2. Risk management–Africa–Case studies. 3. Disaster relief–Africa–Case studies. I. Pelling, Mark, 1967– II. Wisner, Benjamin. HV551.1.5.A35D57 2008 363.34'6096091732–dc22 2008036287

The paper used for this book is FSC-certified. FSC (the Forest Stewardship Council) is an international network to promote responsible management of the world’s forests.

Contents

List of boxes, figures and tables List of acronyms and abbreviations Foreword by Anna Tibaijuka

ix xiii xv

PART I: URBANIZATION AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN AFRICA 1

2

3

Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk in Africa Mark Pelling and Ben Wisner Why Care about Urban Risk in Africa? Conceptualizing Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk Structure of the Book References African Cities of Hope and Risk Ben Wisner and Mark Pelling Introduction: Urbanization in Africa Hazards and Disasters in African Cities The Continuum of Urban Risk in Africa The Accumulation of Risk: Processes that Expose People to Hazard Impact and Make Recovery Difficult Approaches to Urban Safety Summary and Conclusions References Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Mark Pelling and Ben Wisner Introduction Options for Disaster Risk Reduction Techniques for Urban Disaster Risk Reduction Conclusions References

3 6 8 10 16 17 17 25 32 34 37 39 40 43 43 46 48 59 59

vi Disaster Risk Reduction

PART II: CASE STUDIES OF URBAN DISASTER RISK IN AFRICA 4

5

6

7

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring: Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana Jacob Songsore, J. S. Nabila, Yvon Yangyuoru, Sebastian Avle, E. K. Bosque-Hamilton, Paulina E. Amponsah and Osman Alhassan Introduction Methods Environmental Change and the Distribution of Risks and Hazards Some Illustrative Results of the Study Policy Issues References Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard: Kisii and Kisumu, Kenya Andre Yitambe, James Okello, C. M. Ooko Nguka, Caroline Ochieng and Ana Peña del Valle Introduction Urbanization in Kenya Disasters in Kenya Case Study: RTAs in Western Kenya Summary of Findings Discussion Conclusions References Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa Robyn Pharoah A City of Contrasts Cape Town’s Developmental Context The Accumulation of Risk in Informal Settlements Fire Risk in Informal Settlements The MANDISA Project Conclusions References Building Disaster-Resilient Communities: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Robert B. Kiunsi and John Lupala with Fred Lerise, Manoris Meshack, Benedict Malele, Ally Namangaya and Emanuel Mchome Introduction Risk Accumulation

65

65 69 69 73 81 82

87

87 88 90 93 98 99 102 103 105 106 108 110 112 114 123 124

127

127 127

Contents vii Risk Accumulation Processes in Dar es Salaam Disaster Risk Reduction Case Studies Emerging Issues and Coping Strategies Discussion and Conclusions References 8

9

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals: Flood Risk Reduction in Saint-Louis, Senegal Khady Diagne and Abdoulaye Ndiaye Introduction Risk Accumulation and Local Governance Flood-Related Disaster Risk and Risk Reduction Measures Four Case Studies of Local Governance Applied to Flood Risk Reduction in Saint-Louis Conclusions and Recommendations Note References Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria Djillali Benouar and Yamina Ait Meziane Introduction Risk Accumulation Earthquake Disaster Risk and its Reduction Conclusions and Recommendations Annex: Estimation of the Earthquake Vulnerability Functions of Masonry Constructions in the City of Algiers References

132 135 135 138 145 145

147 147 150 156 159 164 166 166 169 169 170 179 181 183 191

PART III: A VISION FOR A SAFER URBAN AFRICA 10

Towards a Safer Urban Future: Conclusions and Recommendations Djillali Benouar, Khady Diagne, Robert Kiunsi, Jacob Songsore, Mark Pelling, Robyn Pharoah, Ben Wisner, Abdoulaye Ndiaye and Andre Yitambe Science, Politics and Constrained Action Twin Challenges for Governance in Urban Risk Reduction Specific Conclusions and Recommendations A Final Word References

Author Biographies Index

195

195 197 200 209 210 211 215

List of Boxes, Figures and Tables

BOXES 8.1 Learning from experience in Dakar: The Jaxaay Plan 9.1 Major milestones of increasing Algerian earthquake risk awareness

158 180

FIGURES 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 9.1

Population density in Africa (2000) Millions of people in African cities, by region (1972–2000) Percentage urban population in Africa Percentage of youth working in the informal sector and living in slum areas Residential areas, Greater Accra Metropolitan Area Quintiles of aggregate environmental burden for residential areas, GAMA Environmental fraction of the burden of disease, GAMA RTAs in Kenya, 1998–2006 Number of informal dwelling units serviced by Cape Town City Council Housing backlog compared to housing delivery Number of dwelling fires between 1990 and 2005 Number of dwellings affected by fires between 1990 and 2005 Total number of informal dwelling fires by suburb, 1990–2005 Informal dwelling fire losses, Langa–Joe Slovo, 1995–2005 The incidence and severity of fires by month, 1995–2005 Population growth in Dar es Salaam, 1891–2001 Spatial expansion of Dar es Salaam, 1945–1998 Location of the study sites Location of Saint-Louis in Senegal Aerial view of Saint-Louis Flood-prone areas of Saint-Louis The location of Algiers

18 21 21 23 67 74 76 92 108 110 117 118 118 121 122 128 130 133 148 152 154 171

x Disaster Risk Reduction 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10 9.11 9.12 9.13 9.14 9.15 9.16

Bab El Oued district, Algiers 172 Bab El Qued street pattern taken from microzonation exercise map 173 Variation of the section of bearing elements of the number of storeys 185 Variation of the ratio (hi/l) of bearing elements in terms of number of storeys 185 Variation of the ratio between the height and one plan dimension of the building 185 Variation of the fundamental period in terms of the elasticity modulus E 186 Variation of the displacement capacity of storeys 1 and 6 in terms of elastic modulus E 186 Results of ambient vibration tests of the representative building in Bab El Oued 186 The first mode shape of the representative building 188 Variation of the ultimate capacity in terms of shear force 188 Variation of the ultimate capacity in terms of displacements 188 Shear force capacity of the structure in terms of the mortar strength fmo 189 Ductility capacity of the building model in terms of the mortar strength fmo 189 Vulnerability curve for tensile stress ␶t = 89kPa and compression stress fc = 1780kPa of terms of the ratio E/G 190 Vulnerability curve corresponding to two types of mortar and E/G =6 190

TABLES 1.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

Linking visions of the city to pathways for managing vulnerability Percentage urban populations living in slums African urban disasters from a media review Comparing disasters, small disasters and everyday risks in urban Africa Urban disaster risk reduction: Multiple activities and stakeholders Institutions, policies and techniques for disaster risk reduction Burden of disease, injury and the top five diseases in sub-Saharan Africa by disability adjusted life years, 1990 and 2000 Flood incidence in GAMA Growth of some of the urban centres, 1969–1999 Growth of urban centres, 1948–1999 Growth of urban centres by actual population size, 1962–1999 Chronology of recent disasters in Kenya Factors that determine the occurrence of RTAs

9 20 26 33 44 47 66 78 88 89 89 91 94

List of Boxes, Figures and Tables xi 5.6 Frequency with which respondents noted a vehicle type being involved with RTAs 5.7 Top ten injuries in Kisumu, 2005 5.8 Citizens’ views on RTA risk management in Kisii and Kisumu 6.1 Direct recorded losses for small-, medium- and large-scale fires in Joe Slovo, 2000 6.2 The proportion of informal dwellings to informal dwelling fires, 2002–2005 6.3 Fire severity in the five suburbs, 1995–2005 7.1 Inter-census annual average growth rates for Dar es Salaam 7.2 Number of cholera patients in Ilala municipality on 27 October 2003 7.3 Prevalence of top ten diseases in Chang’ombe, January–March 2006 8.1 Problems identified and solutions suggested

96 98 99 112 119 120 129 142 143 162

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

AFESD AMA ARSDRR AURAN CBO CCM CCU CGS CIUP CORUS CRGPI DALY DiMP DMD DMTC DOI EAM Enda TM ESS FAO GAMA GD GED GESCAN GIS GNP GPS GWD IIED ILO

Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development Accra Metropolitan Area Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction African Urban Risk Analysis Network community-based organization Chama Cha Maendeleo Chama Cha Uchumi Centre National de Recherche Appliquée en Génie Parasismique Community Infrastructure Upgrading Program Coopération pour la Recherche Universitaire et Scientifique Commission Régionale de Gestion Prévisionnelle des Inondations disability adjusted life year Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme Disaster Management Department Disaster Management Training Centre direct overseas investment Evangelical Association of Malawi Enda Tiers Monde Emergency Services System United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Greater Accra Metropolitan Area Ga District Ga East District Gestion des Catastrophes Naturelles par Télédétection et Système d’Information Géographique geographical information system gross national product global positioning system Ga West District International Institute for Environment and Development International Labour Organization

xiv Disaster Risk Reduction IMF ISDR MANDISA

International Monetary Fund International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Monitoring, Mapping and Analysis of Disaster Incidents in Southern Africa MCM meningococcal meningitis MDG Millennium Development Goal NDOC National Disaster Operation Centre NGO non-governmental organization PADE Processus d’Amélioration Durable de l’Environnement PMO Prime Minister’s Office REVA plan de retour vers l’agriculture RTA road traffic accident TMA Tema Municipal Area UCLAS University College of Lands and Architectural Studies UCT University of Cape Town UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNDRO United Nations Disaster Relief Organization UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UN-HABITAT United Nations Human Settlements Programme VIMIDA Vingunguti Miembeni Development Association WCDR World Conference on Disaster Reduction WHO World Health Organization

Foreword

Risks of Urbanization

This publication rightly asks us to consider the challenges of overcoming the hazards of earthquakes, flooding, fires and traffic and other calamities occurring in and around cities throughout Africa. On a continent fraught with vulnerability to political, social and economic shocks, with the highest rate of urbanization in the world and containing many of the world’s least developed nations, the struggle of coping with natural hazards is daunting. The complex world of human settlements, the manner in which they develop and the security they provide their residents are made even more complex through urban influx, problems of strained management capacity and minimal resources for ensuring human security. Although the threat to human lives remains, the tools to build human security exist, and to overlook or under-prioritize these is an injustice to the communities that make up this continent. This is not new information, either for states struggling to improve the resilience of their cities, or for their international partners. Tools, conventions and other international instruments have all been developed to assist and guide nations in ensuring the safety and security of their citizens. Sadly, however, there is little commitment from either states or the international community to supporting local government, which is a key actor in creating resilience to hazards. I support the idea that the time has come for all stakeholders both inside and outside Africa engaged in development to take note and act at a local level. This publication, with its focus on African cities, puts forward a rationale for looking at disaster risk reduction from an urban perspective; a view that forms the basis for the mandate of UN-HABITAT in our work in this sector. This perspective allows for an examination of urban functions that integrates the key factors of urban resilience, namely: the built environment, physical and social infrastructure, the natural environment, the administration of land, urban economic capacity and vigorous participation by ordinary citizens. Each of these functional primary elements can be examined from the perspective of the capacity of governance systems to create an urban profile that highlights

xvi Disaster Risk Reduction hazards, risks, gaps and deficiencies as a foundation for action. This examination must be carried out in dialogue with stakeholders. Lessons that are learned from the case studies described herein should be applied within this integrated profile. Treating any hazard separately from overall structures that regulate the functioning of cities is in itself one more risk not wisely taken. On behalf of my agency, I welcome this initiative to research hazards from an urban standpoint, and encourage those who read this publication to apply it wherever possible in promoting the resilience of human settlements in Africa. Anna K. Tibaijuka Executive Director, UN-HABITAT and Under-Secretary-General, United Nations

Part I

Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa

1

Introduction: Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk in Africa

Mark Pelling and Ben Wisner

Africa is the world’s most rapidly urbanizing continent. Already there are more people living in urban settlements in Africa than all of Western Europe or North America (UN-HABITAT, 2006). Most of this urban growth is unplanned and driven by natural growth among already marginalized urban populations and inmigration of the poor and displaced. Migrants come from smaller towns or rural villages and often cross international borders, sometimes illegally, generating new excluded and vulnerable populations. Riots and street violence targeted at urban in-migrants in South Africa in 2008 demonstrated the challenge for integration when international migration reaches high levels. Urban migrants seek an escape from the economic, environmental and political insecurity of life. The tragic deaths of sea-borne migrants attempting to cross from West Africa to Spain also show the desperation created by such push factors. Increasingly though, through poverty, lack of basic needs and human rights and the extension of cities into unsafe land, urban centres are becoming hotspots of disaster risk. This is clear for anyone living in or visiting Africa’s growing cities, but has hardly been acknowledged by the international policy and academic communities – a gap that this book seeks to take a first step towards filling. This study supports the emerging view that places adaptation to shocks associated with climate change as a subset of disaster risk reduction. A review of climate change impacts on urbanization by the International Institute for Environment and Development (Huq et al, 2007) found that floods are already having very severe impacts on cities, smaller urban centres and rural areas in

4 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa many African nations. Examples cited include floods in Mozambique in 2000, which displaced around 4000 people in Maputo alone and crippled transport networks, breaking market links (Christie and Hanlon, 2001); the floods in Algiers in 2001 that killed around 900 people and affected 45,000 others (see Chapter 9); heavy rains in East Africa in 2002 that brought floods and mudslides and forced tens of thousands to leave their homes in Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda (Huq et al, 2007). More common, but less often reported, are the many small floods that affect neighbourhoods in cities and small towns such as the 2 June 2008 storm that led to flooding in the western region of the Gambia destroying houses in Darsilameh village and affecting 300 people (IFRC, 2008). Disaster hazards associated with climate change extend beyond flooding to include sea-level rise, additional storminess, landslides, urban water scarcity, temperature extremes and indirect impacts through changes in disease vector ecology. Climate change adds to existing disaster hazard burdens in the city associated with natural hazards (flooding, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, storms and temperature shocks), pollution and technological hazards. To this list can be added environmental crises directly caused by infrastructure or market failures (water and food insecurity) and wider failures in environmental health leading to endemic and epidemic communicable disease (for example dysentery and cholera) and rising populations of disease vectors such as malaria-carrying mosquitoes. All these forms of environmental hazard interact with each other (the health impacts of air pollution are higher on hot days, for example) to produce compound and hybrid hazards. They also serve to undermine coping capacity as people’s health and livelihood resources are worn down by continuous exposure – Chambers (1989) described this as the ratchet effect of vulnerability. In addition, urban dwellers face a rising tide of crime and civil unrest. Government responses to real and imagined challenges to authority may constitute social hazards in their own right, such as brutal attacks on street vendors by government-mobilized militias in the lake-side city of Mwanza, Tanzania, and the infamous case of mass expulsions from Zimbabwe’s capital, Harare. Unexplained arson (possibly the acts of landlords or the government) has forced other thousands from their homes in Nairobi. As hazardousness is growing, so too is vulnerability with few examples of local or government-led coordinated disaster risk reduction (ActionAid, 2006). In Kampala, Uganda, for example, residents of squatter settlements have been recorded working to prevent flood waters entering their homes and, when this fails, temporarily moving to stay with friends or in mosques and churches (ActionAid, 2006). These individual and reactive strategies are typical but limited in reducing risk. Collective local action and proactive interventions to reduce risk are more effective but have rarely been recorded in urban Africa. Exceptions do exist such as the creation of a network of ‘warm houses’ by the Alexandra Clinic

Introduction: Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk in Africa 5 in the township of that name in Johannesburg, where mothers with new babies can enjoy a few weeks out of the severe southern hemisphere winter (Wisner, 1997). The relative paucity of such collective solutions is probably a function of a lack of research studies as much as the weakness of social capital and governance regimes. While many national governments in Africa have disaster risk management legislation and national bodies, such as Ghana’s National Disaster Management Organization, there continues to be very limited capacity to undertake risk awareness or reduction work on the ground. Underlying this is a lack of political priority allocated to urban disaster risk – a classic case of failure of political will. The speed of population growth in African cities and towns is both a challenge and an opportunity for managing disaster risk. Reducing risk is much harder and more expensive when retrofitting buildings and infrastructure that are already in place (Lewis, 1999). Realizing this potential requires that African citizens and authorities learn from the experience of already urbanized societies in Latin America and Asia. This also requires political will and technical knowledge on the ground. The speed of growth is beyond the capacity of urban governments to cope with alone, but similarly local action has not yet shown itself capable of achieving the scale of change needed to improve resilience for the large number of the urban poor. Informal settlements beyond the reach of land-use planning, construction codes and even potable water, sanitation, police and health or education services are a growing reality. Public–private partnerships and community or non-governmental organizations (NGOs) contribute to the provision of critical infrastructure and services and so also need to be included in efforts to plan risk out of urban neighbourhoods (Pelling, 2003). A first step for engaging with urban disaster risk reduction is to identify risk – there are many ways this can be done. Engineering and public health professionals recognize different aspects of risk and use different kinds of tools. People at risk also use different logics to recognize and evaluate competing risks. It is frequently noted that the poor do not take action to reduce their exposure to environmental risks because they are consumed by the immediate demands of survival and of avoiding the physical, social and psychological risks associated with poverty (UN-HABITAT, 2007). It is in this context that this book aims to make a contribution. Theoretical, review and case study chapters identify challenges and also ways forward to engage with multiple stakeholders, including the poor and urban government, to first identify and then communicate and set up institutions and interventions for disaster risk reduction. This book seeks to contribute to both the generation of political will and better utilization of technical and lay knowledge on urban disaster risk. It is a product of the African Urban Risk Analysis Network (AURAN) (www.proventionconsortium.org/?pageid=32&projectid=4), which seeks to build understanding of the ways in which urban development processes and their failings shape disaster risk, to identify the main constraints to disaster risk

6 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa reduction in urban areas and contribute to risk reduction through developing risk identification and communication tools for specific cities and to catalyse support for the urban risk reduction agenda across Africa. AURAN is coordinated from the Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme (DiMP) at the University of Cape Town with partner institutions including universities and NGOs in six urban areas across Africa with support from both ProVention Consortium and the United Nations Development Progamme (UNDP). Each city partner has contributed one case study chapter to this book.

WHY CARE ABOUT URBAN RISK IN AFRICA? The physical scale and human diversity of Africa defy easy generalizations. Extending over an area of more than 30 million square kilometres, the continent could contain all of the US, Europe, China, India and Argentina. More than 2000 local languages are spoken (Grimes, 2000). This richness adds to Africa’s strength. But it also allows established assumptions about African development to go unquestioned, as social and environmental change is difficult to see. This book challenges three predominant images that infuse African research and policy on development and disaster risk. We argue that these images are now becoming perilously close to presenting a false vision of Africa and distorting development policy and practice. The images to be challenged are that Africa is a rural continent, that African disasters are caused by drought and that Africa relies on international support to manage disaster risk. Instead we argue that Africa is an increasingly urban continent, that disasters are multidimensional and that Africa has a critical mass of indigenous capacity to manage disaster risk. The false images that we challenge are related. As Africa becomes more urbanized, the predominant focus on drought as the driver for disaster through a direct link to food insecurity becomes difficult to maintain. Unplanned and rapid urbanization provide the conditions for natural events such as earthquakes to become disastrous, and also modify the physical environment, generating hazard and risk from flooding and fire. The density of urban life and land use produce public health concerns, while also exposing people to neighbouring industrial accidents including explosions and release of toxic chemicals. Density and informal settlement patterns increase the risk from traffic accidents. But urbanization also provides a critical mass of human skill and capacity that can be directed towards reducing risk and coping with the impact of disasters. In this way urbanization both generates risk and pathways for resilience. Food security is likely to continue to be a major development challenge for the continent, but this is a function of failing local and national economies, political weaknesses, inadequate transport infrastructure and fluctuating global commodity prices. A similar crisis is emerging in water security. Indeed urban centres, once thought of as places of refuge from food insecurity, are now also exposed to risk as food becomes too expensive to buy. Africa has already

Introduction: Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk in Africa 7 witnessed two episodes of urban food insecurity that has led to rioting in cities across the continent. The first triggered by food price rises caused in turn by the removal of subsidies as part of structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s and 1990s (Briggs and Yeboah, 2001). The second, at the time of writing in 2008, triggered by global hikes in the price of food and caused by a combination of poor harvests, increasing oil prices, biofuel cropping and commodity speculation (ARB, 2008). In this way, food security becomes one of a range of human security concerns linked to development policy, only part of which is directly associated with local rural environments and drought. Urban food security is one example of the growing interdependence of individual settlements with urban networks and with global economic systems. Across Africa, connections to global circuits of capital are limited although increasing. Certainly, compared to Asia or Latin America, foreign direct investment is low. But the food crisis has shown the deep connection of African cities with global commodity markets and distribution systems. Urban neighbourhoods and cities are also sites for the export of risk with potential or actual global impact. McGranahan et al (2001) use Accra, Jakarta and Sao Paulo to demonstrate an urban environmental transition model. This observes that as cities (or neighbourhoods) become wealthier (‘develop’) they can deploy technology and institutions (and to this could be added changes in behaviour and cultural norms) that allow local environmental hazards to be pushed further and further away in time and distance. So a poor neighbourhood produces human waste that accumulates locally and is a public health hazard. With wealth, the neighbourhood can export this waste, becoming locally cleaner but potentially causing a hazard elsewhere. See Chapter 2 for more on the McGrahanan model. In a similar fashion, a middle-income city may have a functioning sanitation system but will have industrial pollution. This though is externalized into the air, affecting the city region. Rich cities maintain high consumption. The chemical waste associated with their affluent lifestyles may be illegally transferred around the world, as in the infamous case of a sea-going tanker-load of toxic waste from Mediterranean coastal cities spread under cover of night in the suburbs of Abidjan, Ivory Coast, in 2006 (Greenpeace, 2008). Developed to developing world inter-urban transfers or externalization of waste is also created by high rates of private car ownership and city form that make private transport necessary. This contributes to global climate change. African cities are notable for their as yet limited contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, contrasting sharply with the vulnerability of their populations to the local impacts of climate change – half of Africa’s 37 cities with populations above one million are within low elevation coastal zones and therefore vulnerable to sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storms and flooding. Following the logic of the urban environmental transition model it becomes clear that the urban poor suffer from a fourfold burden of environmental risk:

8 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa local public health hazards, local and city region industrial pollution, regional air and water pollution (including additional hazardousness associated with the local impacts of climate change), as well as suffering vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes and storms (Pelling, 2003).

CONCEPTUALIZING URBANIZATION, HUMAN SECURITY AND DISASTER RISK

Urbanization processes contain many threads. From different perspectives urbanization can be seen as a motor for generating macroeconomic wealth, an organism turning raw materials into products and waste, a source of livelihoods for urban citizens, an historical accumulation of physical assets and infrastructure or a place for cultural and political exchange and debate. Each vision of urbanization determines what urbanization means, who the winners and losers are, and – under adaptation to climate change or in efforts to change urban life to reduce risk or recover from disaster – what aspects of urbanization are to be protected or are dispensable. These competing visions of the city also go some way to explaining the tension that lies at the heart of urban governance, with different viewpoints making compromise difficult and at best messy. Table 1.1 shows how specific conceptualizations of the city can lead to differences in emphasis in policy to reduce risk including that which seeks to adapt to climate change. This in turn leads to the identification of key strategies for managing vulnerability in the city. The dominant social science literature base with which each vision is associated is also noted. Underlying each vision of the city are historical and ideological influences that are themselves rooted in economic and material interests (Kohler and Chaves, 2003). The interpenetration of historical, material, cultural and situational processes may produce combinations not represented in Table 1.1. For example, heritage structures in a cityscape may take on cultural and social values far in excess of their marketplace or economic replacement value – as shown by numerous studies of recovery from urban disaster (Jigyasu et al, 2008). The emerging crisis in environmental risk and human security in African cities (and cities elsewhere) can be thought of as a failure in the social contract. The social contract is a much-debated concept (Pelling and Dill, 2008), but here it is used to represent the balance of rights and responsibilities in society. It is the outcome of the interaction of individual rights (for example entitlements to basic needs such as clean drinking water) and social responsibilities (constraints on individual behaviour for the social good such as driving legislation or safe building codes). Risk is always present in society but becomes unacceptable when it is manifest as a result of failures in governance systems to resolve conflict between rights and responsibilities (for example one person’s right to use a motor vehicle impacts on another’s right to clean air) or where rights

Introduction: Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk in Africa 9 Table 1.1 Linking visions of the city to pathways for managing vulnerability Vision of the city

Vulnerable objects

Pathways for Literature managing vulnerability

An engine for economic growth

Physical assets and economic infrastructure

Insurance, business continuity planning

An organism or integrated system linking consumption and production

Critical/life-support infrastructure

Mega-projects Political-ecology, connecting urban and systems theory rural environmental systems

A source of livelihoods

The urban poor, households, livelihood tools

Extending and meeting entitlements to basic needs

Livelihoods analysis and medical sociology

A stock of accumulated assets

Housing and critical/ life-support infrastructure

Safe construction and land-use planning

Political-economy and urban sociology

A political and cultural arena

Political freedoms, cultural and intellectual vitality

Inclusive politics and the protection of human rights

Discourse analysis and public administration/ political theory

Econometrics of business continuity and insurance

Source: based upon Pelling (2008)

and responsibilities are not upheld (corruption means schools are not built to earthquake-resistant standards). In both cases, accepted levels of risk are exceeded because of failures in governance systems. Another pathway for the manifestation of risk opens when new information on hazard or vulnerability, or changes in the values that shape society, lead to a questioning of existing levels of acceptable risk. Science and local knowledge underpin the production of new information shaping frontiers of known risk. Science (or external specialist knowledge) has played the dominant role in producing knowledge about the impacts of climate change and so forced a rethinking of established benchmarks for planned urbanization and infrastructure provision as sea levels rise. For example, changing groundwater levels and changes in hydrometeorological systems mean existing building guidelines and construction standards may no longer be safe (Worldwatch Institute, 2007). People’s science (local, vernacular or lay knowledge) shapes local coping as well as perceptions of safety and blame for risk and is an important determinant of local action and also policy advocacy. There are strong interactions between these two sciences and bodies of knowledge, sometimes colliding and conflicting and sometimes merging and creating synergistic, hybrid forms of knowledge. New values can be brought as a result of changes in political systems and result in a shift in the social contract. South Africa’s transition from apartheid to political (though not economic) democracy changed the values underlying the social contract, extending rights and responsibilities. This is reflected in the high

10 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa volume of reforming legislation that South Africa has enjoyed in the last decade, including new legislation for municipalities to manage disaster risk (Wisner, 1997; Pelling and Holloway, 2007). The case study chapters in this book focus on the potential for new information on vulnerability, hazard, risk and loss to influence development policy and disaster risk reduction in the city. They also discuss ways in which projects aiming at collecting data on risk can also act to build social resilience through strengthening civil society and state organizations, and the blending and integration of local knowledge and external specialist knowledge (Wisner, 2007)

STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK Despite Africa being the most rapidly urbanizing continent, and disaster risk now increasingly being an urban phenomenon worldwide, there is little literature on urban disaster risk and its reduction in Africa. We aim to address this gap through a book that uses theory and case studies to show how urban livelihoods, governance, environmental change and risk are interlinked. The book highlights practical as well and strategic ways of moving towards more resilient cities in Africa. These findings will be relevant for cities in Asia and Latin America, but the focus is on Africa. This book develops the argument that rapid urbanization in Africa can be seen as an opportunity to develop urban governance systems and planning regimes that promote political inclusiveness, economic and social equity and security from environmental risk. The book addresses four interrelated themes: urban livelihoods, the urban environment, urban governance, and urban risk and its reduction. Filling this gap is made urgent by climate change and rapid urbanization. While both these processes look set to generate increased vulnerability and loss, urbanization itself need not be a pathway to increased risk. The book maps out the ways in which disaster risk has accumulated in African cities (Chapter 2) and identifies a toolkit for urban risk reduction (Chapter 3). The extent to which urban disaster risk is being engaged with in Africa and the elements of the available toolkit employed are explored through case studies drawn from North (Algeria), West (Senegal and Ghana), East (Kenya and Tanzania) and southern (South Africa) Africa, which cover everyday hazards (traffic accidents, public health), local disasters (flooding, fire) and catastrophic disaster (earthquake). Finally the book looks towards the future to find visions of a safer urban Africa (Chapter 10) The individual case study chapters include an overview of urbanization processes, background on the history of disaster in the city and an analysis of risk accumulation processes focusing on the ways in which development has led to the generation of risk; this might include informal settlements and lack of planning, failure to regulate building or to support artisan building skills, lack of

Introduction: Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk in Africa 11 integration of disaster risk reduction into urban development, as well as processes of marginalization (denial of access and political voice) suffered by certain socio-economic groups. General discussions then give way to a focused analysis of a single disaster risk management intervention including discussion of methods and results, and actual or potential policy impact. The case studies are ordered to reflect three levels of urban disaster risk (see Chapter 2 for a full discussion): everyday – public health in Accra, Ghana (Chapter 4) and traffic accidents in Kisii and Kisumu, Kenya (Chapter 5); small – dwelling fires in Cape Town, South Africa (Chapter 6) and flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (Chapter 7); and large – flooding in Saint-Louis, Senegal (Chapter 8) and earthquakes in Algiers, Algeria (Chapter 9), followed by a synthesis of key conclusions and recommendations for a safer urban Africa (Chapter 10). The highlights of each individual case study are presented below.

Everyday disasters The Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana: Environmental health and disaster monitoring Jacob Songsore, University of Ghana, Legon and co-authors share in their chapter a project whose primary objective is to apply a set of proxy indicators and a geographical information system (GIS) database for environmental health and disaster monitoring and management. Hazards include communicable diseases related to poor environmental conditions, flood risk and earthquake risk. Because the perception of communities of everyday risk is not necessarily the same as the risks identified by experts, the knowledge base is skewed in favour of those who are most at risk by means of an iterative participatory process. The research investigates perceptions of risk at household level and is disaggregated by gender to reveal differences within households. The chapter reports on a rapid assessment undertaken at the citywide level and a community self-assessment completed in one low-income community, namely Nima. The chapter discusses challenges faced by the research team. The team succeeded in engaging local stakeholders at the outset of the research. Challenges included building internal community capacity to drive this process and go on to develop their own monitoring systems based on their own priorities. The research team came across organizations with ideas for solving local problems with simple, appropriate ways of addressing concerns, but that lacked funding. Another challenge was to ensure the research could be sustained over a period of time so that identified trends can be monitored. There is a role here for local government but also for NGOs and community-based organizations (CBOs).

Kisii and Kisumu, Kenya: Road traffic accidents as an everyday hazard Andre Yitambe, Kenyatta University, Kenya and co-authors present research in their chapter indicating that road traffic accidents (RTAs) are one of the top

12 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa causes of death and disease in Kenya. Per passenger kilometre, a traveller is 30 times more likely to die in Kenya than in Europe. By 2010, RTAs are expected to become the number one killer in Africa. Although many Kenyans are resigned to accepting accidents as a part of life, most are avoidable. This research explores the causal factors of accidents involving matatus (minibus taxis) in Kisii and Kisumu, two cities in western Kenya, in order to understand what mechanisms, structures and systems are needed to reduce RTAs, to identify gaps in the Road Traffic Act, and to create an action learning network of professionals interested in reducing RTAs in western Kenya. Matatu drivers drive from morning to evening without food, chewing qat to keep themselves awake. Long working hours are needed to earn an income after rent is paid to vehicle owners. Tougher traffic regulations have been introduced to reduce speed and make travelling by road safer, but lack of enforcement means these are not effective – a problem repeated in Uganda, South Africa and other African countries. Primary data come from focus group discussions and questionnaires, with secondary data drawn from medical records from two hospitals. The research revealed that the main causes of accidents in the two cities are first, human behaviour, second, mechanical problems and third, environmental factors such as slippery roads, landslides and poor visibility. There is a high correlation between the number of RTAs and a wide variety of costs such as hospital costs, the costs to the economy and the social costs for families who have to look after accident victims. Recommendations coming from this research include: implementing educational and awareness-raising programmes; enforcing the road traffic rules; providing an avenue for community participation in enforcement; devising a multi-stakeholder national safety policy; and improving the design and maintenance of roads.

Small disasters Cape Town, South Africa: Fire risk in informal settlements Robyn Pharoah from the University of Cape Town presents the work of DiMP and the development of the MANDISA database. MANDISA records small and large disaster events such as fires and floods in Greater Cape Town. The current emphasis of MANDISA is on recording fire events in informal settlements where there has been damage to a structure, based on official fire services records. The reported project systematically characterizes the determinants and consequences of informal fire risk in Cape Town in order to inform better informal fire risk management. It also aims to strategically communicate its risk research outcomes to inform transversal mainstreaming of risk reduction. The chapter discusses the period 1990–2004, during which about 41,000 informal dwellings were destroyed or damaged and about 164,000 people lost their household assets and their homes. The data indicate that fire events are concentrated in informal settlements and they seem to be on the increase. There

Introduction: Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk in Africa 13 is a cyclical trend in informal fire events – once a large-scale event has taken place, people are more careful for a time, but then the number of incidents increases again. An analysis of informal fire occurrence and fire severity in five at-risk areas of Cape Town shows that risk varies from place to place. In one informal settlement, a clear link can be seen between increasing population density and fire risk. In another area, the fire data show an accumulation of fire risk, and this is an early warning of increasing household livelihood stress. A major challenge in mainstreaming risk reduction is to bridge the gap between strategic risk reduction sectors/disciplines and fire fighting/emergency responders. Strategic risk-reducing disciplines have strong analytic capability, but limited disaster risk content knowledge (economics and planning). Disaster management and fire-fighting disciplines have strong fire risk knowledge, but limited analytic and strategic risk communication capability. A second challenge is to overcome the obstacles in interdisciplinary risk reduction planning and resource allocation. The challenges for MANDISA were in the collection of data, due to the institutional constraints facing the official structures with which DiMP worked. There were irregularities in the storage and reporting of data and incomplete spatial referencing for incidents. There was a mismatch between available population data and the way fire incident information was captured, which made correlating incident information with population density and rates of densification very difficult. Another problem had to do with just what constituted an ‘informal’ area. Two years ago, officials were reluctant to share information with DiMP, but a political change and institutional restructuring in the municipality has helped to overcome this constraint. The data informed various levels of policy. University students have also been able to use the information, with the outcome of their research projects being fed back to communities.

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Building disaster-resilient communities Led by Robert B. Kiunsi and John Lupala from University College of Lands and Architectural Studies, Dar es Salaam, and assisted by others, this chapter examines disaster risk in low-income residential Dar es Salaam. The project used an action research approach and aimed, through the collection and analysis of risk data, to mainstream awareness of risk accumulation processes and improve the capacity of local communities and urban councils to develop and implement risk reduction management plans. Three case study areas were examined as indicative of the endemic risks in Dar es Salaam and other urban settlements in Tanzania. The areas chosen were all in Dar es Salaam – Vingunguti settlement in Ilala municipality, Chang’ombe Toroli settlement in Temeke municipality, and Msasani Bonde la Mpunga settlement in Kinondoni municipality. Msasani is a wetland next to the sea, which is prone to flooding and health risks associated with stagnant water. The draining of certain pockets of this land for housing the rich has exacerbated these

14 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa problems for the poor. Vingunguti has very high housing density and its pit latrines overflow into water wells because of the high water table. There is a waste dump in the area and there are endemic communicable diseases such as cholera that spread every year. In Chang’ombe Toroli, industrial activities such as woodworking create a fire hazard and air pollution that causes respiratory disease. There were perhaps three major challenges in the collection of data for this case study and research project. First was the lack of quantifiable data. The study team had to develop much of the data itself, or further develop some of the data that were available. Second, politicization of the development process made it difficult to identify common problems that, if they were solved, would help everyone. The process of bringing groups together was often accompanied by tension, with groups sometimes blocking a good idea simply to prevent another group from claiming credit. Third, was the importance of managing respondents’ expectations. During action research, respondents are inclined to think ‘local government has seen our problem, the university has seen our problem, we have always had to reduce our expectations, but now something must be done!’. It is necessary to ensure that people know that all parties must make a contribution to solving shared problems.

Large disasters Saint-Louis, Senegal: Multi-actor governance for flood risk education Khady Diane from the NGO ENDA-Tiers Mode, Senegal, presents a chapter concerning work her organization undertook on improving the living conditions of people living in slums in Saint-Louis, a city of 200,000 inhabitants about 280km from Dakar. In 1999, an integrated waste management programme known as PADE (Processus d’Amélioration Durable de l’Environnement) SaintLouis caused the stabilizing of sedimentation in river beds of the area, increasing flood events. The scale of the problem was beyond the capacity of a single municipal institution to manage. ENDA-Tiers Mode used an action research methodology to bring stakeholders together to develop an integrated and comprehensive approach to urban flood risk. Efforts have been made to allow the process to continue after the case study research has been completed through regular and systematic dialogue and exchange. Under the AURAN project initiated in 2004, ENDA-Tiers Mode worked with communities to develop tools that people could use to mitigate flood risk. ENDA-Tiers Mode also engaged in awareness-raising activities in various districts, including exhibitions, educational visits to schools, and drama, as a way of persuading communities to actively engage in reducing the risk posed by floods. This chapter shows that the local population was very supportive and took up many flood risk reduction activities. They also worked on better solid waste and wastewater management to combat unsanitary conditions and reduce the risks these pose to the health of slum dwellers. Municipalities and then

Introduction: Urbanization, Human Security and Disaster Risk in Africa 15 central government were engaged in developing the case study. This was unusual because in Senegal governmental stakeholders do not usually support the activities of NGOs. This case study is useful because it can help us to understand the causes of, and how to reduce risk of, floods in the much larger city of Dakar. Exposure to flood risk here has been caused by people being forced to settle in low-lying areas of the city. Even when people have been moved into tents to escape flooding they then have no choice but to move back once the water subsides. Some residents have even been charged by government to return to their land. The central dilemma is how best to deal with people moving into unsafe areas that are well located and facilitate residents’ ability to generate a livelihood.

Algiers, Algeria: Evaluating seismic vulnerability This chapter by Djillali Benouar, University of Science and Technology of Bab Ezzouar, discusses a case study based on a project that had three avenues of enquiry: pure scientific enquiry to develop a statistical index of vulnerability, lobbying the government and positively influencing human behaviour through ‘soft’ sciences such as sociology. The project objectives were to: evaluate the seismic vulnerability of the city of Algiers, identify vulnerability factors, develop risk reduction initiatives with local authorities and others, and develop measures to reduce vulnerability. The district of Bab El Oued was chosen for the study. A theoretically representative type of building for the area was chosen and the ability of buildings to resist earthquake damage was tested. From the resulting data, statistical functions of vulnerability were calculated – plotting the acceleration of an earthquake against the kind of damage it could be expected to cause to a ‘typical’ building. These functions of vulnerability were tested against damage actually caused by an earthquake in 1989 in Tipaza in which 35 people died, 700 were injured and 50,000 were made homeless. Engineers who had inspected the damage to buildings after the event were asked to fill in a questionnaire. The research team then correlated the observed level of damage sustained in the Tipaza earthquake with its vulnerability index. Djillali describes his team’s interest in raising awareness and in positively influencing the way people behaved after a seismic event had taken place. The state statistics agency had collected information on how people had behaved after the last major earthquake in 2003, using a questionnaire based on a Japanese postseismic questionnaire. This work should make it possible to assess the seismic risk for an earthquake with certain characteristics. It is intended to assist all levels of government to reduce seismic risk by implementing adequate preventive measures and reducing the vulnerability of buildings.

16 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa

REFERENCES ActionAid (2006) Climate Change, Urban Flooding and the Rights of the Urban Poor in Africa: Key Findings from Six African Cities, Action Aid, London, www.actionaid.org/assets/ pdf%5CUrban%20Flooding%20Africa%20Report.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 ARB (Africa Research Bulletin) (2008) ‘Food crisis: High prices spark riots’, Africa Research Bulletin, vol 45, no 3, pp17763A–17765C (3) Briggs, J. and Yeboah, I. E. A. (2001) ‘Structural adjustment and the contemporary subSaharan African city’, Area, vol 33, no 1, pp18–26 Chambers, R. (1989) ‘Editorial introduction: Vulnerability, coping and policy’, IDS Bulletin , vol 20, no 2, pp1–7 Christie, F. and Hanlon, J. (2001) Mozambique and the Great Flood of 2000, Indiana University Press, Bloomington, IN Greenpeace (2008) Toxic Waste in Abidjan: Greenpeace Evaluation, www.greenpeace.org/ international/news/ivory-coast-toxic-dumping/toxic-waste-in-abidjan-green accessed 29 July 2008 Grimes, B. F. (ed) (2000) Ethnologue: Languages of the World, Summer Institute of Linguistics, Dallas, TX Huq, S., Kovats, S., Reid, H. and Satterthwaite, D. (2007) ‘Editorial: Reducing risks to cities from disasters and climate change’, Environment and Urbanization, vol 19, no 1, pp3–15 IFRC (2008) The Gambia Storm, DREF Operation note, www.ifrc.org/docs/appeals/08/ MDRGM00401.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Jigyasu, R., Land, J. and Wisner, B. (2008) ‘Putting heritage on the map: A discussion about disaster management and cultural heritage’, Conservation (Getty Conservation Institute), vol 23, no 1, pp10–15, www.getty.edu/conservation/publications/newsletters/23_1/ dialogue.html accessed 29 July 2008 Kohler, G. and Chaves, E. J. (eds) (2003) Globalization: Critical Perspectives, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, New York Lewis, J. (1999) Development in Disaster Prone Places, Intermediate Technology Publications, London McGranahan, G., Jacobi, P., Songsore, J., Surjadi, C. and Kjellén, M. (2001) The Citizens at Risk: From Urban Sanitation to Sustainable Cities, Earthscan, London Pelling, M. (2003) The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social Resilience, Earthscan, London Pelling, M. (2008) ‘The vulnerability of cities to disasters and climate change: A conceptual introduction’, in H. G. Brauch (ed) Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security, Springer-Verlag, London Pelling, M. and Dill, K. (2008) Disaster Politics, EPD Working Paper 1, www.kcl.ac.uk/ schools/sspp/geography/research/epd/working.html accessed 29 July 2008 Pelling, M. and Holloway, A. (2007) Legislation for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction, Tearfund, London, p33 UN-HABITAT (2006) State of the World’s Cities, 2006/7, Earthscan, London UN-HABITAT (2007) Enhancing Urban Safety and Security: Global Report on Human Settlements 2007, Earthscan, London Wisner, B. (1997) ‘Environmental health and safety in urban South Africa’, in B. Johnston (ed) Life and Death Matters, Altamira Press, Walnut Creek, CA Wisner, B. (2007) ‘Climate change and cultural diversity: Reflections from the bottom up and from the top down’, background paper commissioned for State of Cultural Diversity, UNESCO, Paris Worldwatch Institute (2007) State of the World 2007: Our Urban Future, Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC

2

African Cities of Hope and Risk

Ben Wisner and Mark Pelling

INTRODUCTION: URBANIZATION IN AFRICA This chapter provides an overview of the key processes shaping urbanization, poverty and disaster risk in Africa’s diverse and growing urban settlements.

Urban history and location Most major African cities were situated by colonial powers to facilitate international trade through the extraction of value from the interior. They chose coastal and riverine positions, and others were strategically placed along railway lines (for example Lusaka, Harare and Gaborone). Some nations have built new capital cities ex nihilo, such as Abuja in Nigeria or Dodoma in Tanzania; others have expanded smaller towns into new, more centrally located national capitals. Lilongwe, Malawi, is an example. As these cities have grown from their colonial or early post-colonial origins, location alone makes many of them highly exposed to coastal storms, sea-level rise and flooding. Lack of drainage and poor maintenance of drainage works exacerbate the flood hazard. Some cities pre-existing the colonial period were built on Islamic-inspired design principles such as Kano, Nigeria and Timbuktu, Mali and the string of Indian Ocean cities and towns built by Omani Arabs in the 18th century. Several were adopted by the Europeans as hubs of their administrative, military and commercial activities. Djibouti, Mogadishu and Dar es Salaam are the best examples, but smaller towns also featured in sub-national administration by colonial powers: Lamu and Mombassa (Kenya), Lindi (Tanzania), and Pemba and Beira (Mozambique). Addis Ababa was an ancient mountain city that was

18 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa

0 0–5 5–10 10–25 25–50 50–100 100–250 250–500 500–1000 1000–5000 5000–10,000 10,000–25,000 25,000–50,000 50,000–100,000

Source: UNEP (2007b)

Figure 2.1 Population density in Africa (2000) briefly occupied and expanded by Italian colonizers. The landlocked countries of sub-Saharan Africa are the product of the 19th century European ‘scramble for Africa’, and their cities reflect administrative and transportation principles. Such patterns of urbanization are superimposed on a diffuse pattern of rural population density and privilege interior upland and coastal locations, and the shores of rivers and lakes (see Figure 2.1). Colonial and contemporary patterns of urban primacy produce a highly skewed distribution of cities by size of population. Typically the so-called primate city in each country is its capital and major commercial, financial and industrial hub. These are many times larger than the second or third rank cities by population, and there are several in Africa with primate city populations in the millions. At the bottom of the size ranking there are many small towns and hundreds of intermediate cities of 100,000 residents or more. These, however, as we shall see, get little attention from planners concerned with risk; awareness, research and programming tend to focus on stereotypical ‘rural’ African problems such as drought and associated food emergencies, and the social and health problems of the largest cities.

African Cities of Hope and Risk 19

Urban form and infrastructure Rural immigrants and even Africa migrants from other countries have filled up informal settlements surrounding the former colonial cores. Some of these take the shape of formalized and serviced working-class neighbourhoods, but many of these settlements enjoy little and sometimes no centrally provided infrastructure such as paved roads, drainage, sewerage, solid waste collection or piped water. Schools and health centres are also scarce. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 2007b) estimates that 72 per cent of all Africa’s urban population lives ‘under slum conditions’ as opposed to 56 per cent in South Asia. The definition of slum conditions can draw from physical, legal, demographic or functional perspectives. Based on legal and functional variables three kinds of slum settlement can be differentiated: • • •

squatter settlements on public or private land; illegal commercial suburban land subdivisions on private or customary land; overcrowded, dilapidated buildings in city centres or densely urbanized areas.

This definition is complemented by that of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT, 2006) that describes slum settlements in terms of the basic needs their residents are denied through lack of market access and public sector or civil society support. UN-HABITAT defines a slum household as one that lacks one or more of the following: durable housing, sufficient living area, access to improved water, access to sanitation and/or secure tenure. Functional urban boundaries in Africa are difficult to map because migrants to the city often settle on the periphery, where land is available and at first glance lifestyles and even land use have a distinctly rural appearance. Such ‘rurban’ development is a challenge to planners because population dispersion requires longer and more costly service delivery corridors, but is also an asset to cities that face the challenge of de-densifying old cores or, as we shall see in the case of Saint-Louis, Senegal, moving an entire well-established fishing community out of an area of chronic flooding. Although sprawl increases the cost of transport, infrastructure and service provision (Frumkin et al, 2004), in the case of these African cities their peripheries provide valuable food and livelihood opportunities and undeveloped lower-risk sites for relocating people from the older, more risk-prone cores.

Urbanization in Africa African nations are currently urbanizing faster than any other region in the world. In terms of percentage of the total population living in cities, now on

20 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa average 40 per cent of national populations, Africa currently exceeds South Asia. While in 2005 sub-Saharan Africa had no officially recognized mega-cities (defined as urban regions of more than 10 million inhabitants), the greater Cairo urban region at more than 15 million should be considered a mega-city, and greater Lagos at more than 9 million is near. However, in functional terms as opposed to numbers within formal jurisdictional boundaries, several huge aggregations already exist in Africa. Greater Lagos may actually have 14 million inhabitants and Gauteng Province in South Africa would qualify as a mega-city if the corridor running from Pretoria and Midrand through Johannesburg to Sasolburg were counted (Toulmin and Wisner, 2005). On a transnational scale, an urban swath of 70 million exists between Abidjan and Ibadan (Davis, 2004). Table 2.1 shows how absolute numbers of urban residents living in slums in African cities has accelerated in recent decades, with most growth in subSaharan Africa, and Figure 2.2 shows the growth of the urban population from 1972 to 2000, while Figure 2.3 gives approximate percentage values for urban populations in each African nation. UNEP (2007a) estimates that Africa’s urban population will double from 294 million in 2000 to 742 million by 2030. Three cities in the Sahelian zone of West Africa grew rapidly in population between 1980 and 2000, sprawling out into formerly agricultural and open land on their peripheries: the capital city of Burkina Faso (118 per cent increase) and the capitals of Mali (62 per cent) and Niger (63 per cent increase) (Manu et al, 2003).

Small- and medium-sized cities: Africa’s burden and hope Much of Africa’s rapid urbanization from the decade of the 1990s onwards has taken place in smaller towns and cities. According to a UN study cited by Dubresson and Raison (2007), the number of urban places in Africa with populations between 5000 and 20,000 inhabitants grew from 750 to 2470 in the period 1960–1990, and in the same period, cities in the size range 20,000–100,000 expanded from 285 to 790. Those of medium size (100,000–500,000) – such as Kisumu and Saint-Louis among our African Urban Risk Analysis Network (AURAN) case studies – increased from 39 to 180. Table 2.1 Percentage urban populations living in slums Per cent 1990

1990 Slum Population (millions)

Per cent 2005

2005 Slum Population (millions)

31 47 6 38 72

715 654 42 22 101

31 41 6 25 72

998 933 47 21 199

World Developing Countries Developed Regions North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source: UN-HABITAT (2006)

African Cities of Hope and Risk 21 300 Western Indian Ocean 250

Western Africa Southern Africa

200

Northern Africa Eastern Africa

150

Central Africa

100

50

0 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Source: UN Population Division (2001), compiled by UNEP (2003)

Figure 2.2 Millions of people in African cities, by region (1972–2000)

98

Central African Republic

97

Burkina Faso Chad

95

Tanzania

95

Mali

95

Ethiopia

93

Mozambique

90

Madagascar

88

Uganda

86

Rwanda

84

Nigeria

77

Malawi

76

Senegal

71

Benin

71

Togo

66

Zambia

63

Guinea

54

Kenya Cameroon Ghana Cote d’Ivoire

53 49 48 46

Source: UN Population Division ( 2001), compiled by UNEP (2003)

Figure 2.3 Percentage urban population in Africa

22 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa An optimistic view of this trend might invoke two somewhat old-fashioned notions from urban geography. If one believed in growth poles – a popular but disappointing policy-oriented theoretical model from the 1960s, then smaller cities are well placed to feed their rural hinterland with agricultural inputs and the kinds of manufactured goods required to ‘leapfrog’ via clean and green technologies into sustainable development. This is a rosy picture, indeed, but so far there is little evidence that it is taking place, or indeed that the urban growth being witnessed is integrated into strategic development planning. Rather the demographic growth of small- and medium-sized urban centres is spontaneous (driven by in-migration and natural population growth), sometimes associated with local economic booms but often more a symptom of relative rural poverty. At a minimum, then, one might at least view smaller towns and cities as intervening opportunities that provide stepping stones for migrants destined for larger centres and, through economies of scale and as centres of population, offer the potential for disseminating technological and governance reform from the top down and bottom up. Decentralization of the nation state’s administrative functions (though often without commensurate local control of public finance) can also help to account for the growth of smaller urban centres. In Tanzania and Malawi sub-national administrative urban hubs may take on important disaster risk reduction roles, for example in one case observed by Wisner in 2006 where Nsanji district officials in southern Malawi collaborated with local people in moving a school that was frequently flooded. Visiting northern Tanzania in 2007, he found that the Moshi district executive officer had decided to requisition sorghum as emergency food rather than maize in order to reintroduce into the diet a more drought-resistant grain. So much for the hope. However, without resources in personnel and finance for programming, the local governments of these growing small towns and medium-sized cities will hardly be able to protect their own inhabitants from the range of hazards discussed below, let alone serve as a beacon and aid to people in their hinterlands. Likewise, the manufacturing potential of such centres for adding value to agrarian production and for feeding producers with inputs cannot be tapped without investment, reliable banking services and a more imaginative approach to the skills already possessed by tens of thousands of metal workers, carpenters, ceramicists and many other tradespeople who have come up through traditional apprenticeship systems common throughout Africa. As the World Bank (2000, p130) has observed ‘cities in Africa are not serving as engines of growth and structural transformation. Instead they are part of the cause and a major symptom of the economic and social crises that have enveloped the continent’.

Africa’s urbanites African urban populations are largely young and male. This reflects the continu-

African Cities of Hope and Risk 23

0–20% 21–40% 41–60% 61–80% 81–100%

Source: Mboup (2004)

Figure 2.4 Percentage of youth working in the informal sector and living in slum areas ing linkage between city and country, and the importance of wage migrant remittance of income to wives and extended families in the countryside. However, this urban demographic pattern is changing because, since the 1980s, natural increase has been an equal or more important source of African urban growth, and a more stable, permanent urban working class and middle class have emerged, thus weakening bonds with rural homes (though they do not disappear) (Bilsborrow, 1998; Beall et al, 1999; Beall, 2002, 2005). As contributors to Guyer’s (1987) volume, Feeding African Cities, show, there has long been a reciprocal relation between urban and rural economies. In good times, the country feeds the city, and in bad times in urban economic terms, the unemployed return – at least temporarily to the countryside (see also Women Feeding Cities, 2004). Yet, as the 1941 famine in Malawi attests, women in the rural areas cannot necessarily count on remittances when drought or other hazards create food emergencies (Vaughan, 1987). Informal sector employment is very highly developed in African cities (see Figure 2.4). The creativity and energy of informal workers – mechanics, carpenters, masons, electricians and many others – is legendary. Petty trade supports the formal economy, and can do so with limited environmental burden, as in the

24 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa case of non-mechanized transportation of goods. The formal industrial working class is usually quite small as a proportion of the urban population. The ‘petty salariat’ and middle class is now smaller than before structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s enforced large cuts in public sector employment. Informality goes beyond the economic realm. Governance in informal settlements is not a straightforward matter of official bureaucratic authority, but often involves a negotiation of power among elders (representing indigenous and sometimes immigrant ethnic and tribal groups), business people and the local representative of the state. Civil society organization in these areas often involves women’s groups with specific objectives such as protection of their rights as roadside vendors, and faith-based groups organized around mosque and church. International agencies are often also engaged in local governance for urban formal and informal settlements directly or through local affiliates. The complexity of urban governance in such working-class and squatter settlements is both a weakness and a strength. On the side of weakness, decision-making takes a long time and implementation may be flawed in the case of top-down urban improvement projects. However, on the side of strength, there is a depth of commitment to the community and knowledge of social relations among informal leaders. This can lead to important roles for women’s, youth and faith-based groups, for example in settling disputes and in peace making – even in extreme situations such as the violence in Mogadishu, Somalia and the inter-tribal violence in Kenyan cities. Many of the best-trained people emerging from tertiary education and graduate school still end up working outside Africa – the so-called brain drain continuing to distort and limit professional leadership required for urban planning and management (and development more generally). Party political organization is strong in African cities, and often government policies are skewed in favour of urban interests (for example cheap food) or the interests of party supporters. Cities are also sometimes the focus of discontent, with student strikes and protests common. Likewise, relations between the governed and the government in African cities are often fraught with mistrust. One sees this in exaggerated form with the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands of people formerly living in Harare’s informal and peripheral settlements, but also in the campaigns against street vendors in Mwanza, a Tanzanian city on Lake Victoria’s shore, and elsewhere. From a risk management point of view, such mistrust and antagonistic history between the state and elements of civil society (often highly organized informally, as with market women in many cities, or taxi drivers) means that it is difficult to mobilize support for public safety campaigns or more broadly to communicate information from local or central government aimed at changing citizen’s behaviour to reduce risk.

African Cities of Hope and Risk 25

HAZARDS AND DISASTERS IN AFRICAN CITIES Overview Reading through African nations’ reports to the UN and sampling donor projects and academic research, one would think that Africa suffers mostly from drought, food emergencies (both often exacerbated by violent conflict), epidemics and floods. The overwhelming impression is of rural vulnerability to the vicissitudes of climate, pests, warlords and tyrants. However, this stereotype is false. As we have seen, Africa has a substantial and rapidly growing urban population. Data available from the Centre for the Epidemiology of Disaster provides a counter to the myth of rural hazards (EM-DAT, 2008). The EM-DAT database records 166 urban disasters for some 28 African cities in the period 1997–2008. These span a range from urban drought, epidemic, earthquake, windstorm and flood to extreme temperature events, industrial accidents and transportation accidents involving mass casualties. Urban fire is not included in this database, but we shall see below that it is a significant urban hazard in African cities. These 166 events affected a total of 3.3 million people. Of these nearly a third were affected by urban flooding. 300,000 people were affected by urban epidemics – a reflection of poor sanitation. The monetary value of damage for the whole suite of events is given as US$631 million; however, nearly all of this is due to flooding (US$624 million), suggesting that the true social cost of all the other events was not captured. A category EM-DAT called ‘miscellaneous accidents’ (28 of them, affecting 67,000 people) probably includes spontaneous building collapses (discussed below), and only one of these has any cost estimate. Despite the limitations of such overview data, clearly African cities face a variety of threats similar to cities in Asia and Latin America. These threats belong to a continuum of risk (see below). Much of the risk of daily existence in African cities is a function of people’s vulnerability to events outside the realm of ‘natural’ hazards. Cameroon’s two largest cities, Douala and Yaounde exemplify this pattern. A review of press accounts in the Cameroon Tribune for the whole of 2006 reveals 40 traffic accidents in and around these two cities, killing 135 people as well as 21 fires and one outbreak of cholera (Direction de la Protection Civile, 2007). During 2005, government fire fighters dealt with five factory and warehouse fires in these large cities, including one in a palm oil processing factory, an explosion and large brush fire. All of these threatened surrounding residential areas, given the structure and density of the cities (Direction de la Protection Civile, 2007). Table 2.2 supports a multi-hazard view with examples drawn from recent press accounts of accidents and disasters in many African cities. Of course African cities also are prone to a variety of extreme natural events, many triggered or exacerbated by human action.

26 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa Table 2.2 African urban disasters from a media review AIRCRAFT CRASHES April 2008 January 2008 October 2007 December 2006

Aircraft crashed in a residential area Air crash kills six DR Congo plane crash ‘kills many’ Airplane crashes into flats in South Africa

July 2002

Cargo plane crashes in residential area

May 2002

Plane crashes in the north Nigerian city of Kano ‘40 dead’ in Angola helicopter crash

December 2001

Birere, Congo Windhoek, Namibia Near Kinshasa, DR Congo Johannesburg, South Africa Bangui, Central African Republic Kano, Nigeria Luanda, Angola

FIRES AND EXPLOSIONS May 2008 May 2008 January 2008 September 2007 August 2007 June 2007 March 2007 December 2007 January 2002

100 dead in Nigeria oil pipeline fire Explosion rocks Ethiopian capital Nigerian fuel tanker explosion leaves at least 30 dead Kumasi gas fire victims Kerosine explosion kills four in P. Harcourt Dozens trapped in Durban high-rise fire, 70 rescued Explosion at weapons depot sows panic in Maputo Christmas day pipeline fire kills 45 near Lagos Armoury explosion

Near Lagos, Nigeria Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Port Harcourt, Nigeria Kumasi, Ghana Port Harcourt, Nigeria Durban, South Africa Maputo, Mozambique Lagos, Nigeria Lagos, Nigeria

FERRY BOAT SINKING January 2008

Congo ferry sinking kills 17, 120 survive

April 2006 March 2006 October 2002

120 deportees perish on Volta Lake 127 feared dead in Cameroon ferry sinking Ferry sinks in Senegal

Lake Tanganyka, DR Congo Volta Lake, Ghana Cameroon Dakar, Senegal

TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS November 2004 January 2003 June 2008 July 2008 April 2007 January 2008

Traffic accident kills 27, injures 44 in Khartoum Khartoum, Sudan Traffic accident kills at least 70 in Cameroon Ebomey, Cameroon Zambia bus accident kills 26 people Near Lusaka, Zambia Taxi accident near Johannesburg Johannesburg, South Africa Traffic accident kills 16 Egyptian students Cairo, Egypt 20 people crushed in Lagos accident Lagos, Nigeria

African Cities of Hope and Risk 27 EPIDEMIC OUTBREAKS February 2008 January to April 2008 October to November 2007 August 2007

Congo cholera epidemic hits in mining province Meningitis in Burkina Faso

Lubumbashi, DR Congo

Cholera in Tanzania

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Uganda

Kampala and Kambenge, Uganda Luanda and Benguela, Angola Kampala, Uganda

August 2007

Poliomyelitis in Angola

December 2007

January 2002 to April 2005 March 2004

Panic spreads as Uganda reports 101 Ebola cases Cholera and diarrhoea, Zimbabwe Poliomyelitis in Namibia Cholera outbreak in Angola: 652 infected and 22 dead Cholera outbreak claims six lives, more deaths expected Epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in Kumasi, Ghana Cholera in Mozambique

May 2003

Yellow fever outbreak, Southern Sudan

January 2007 June 2006 February 2006 December 2005

Burkina Faso

Harare, Zimbabwe Windhoek, Namibia Luanda, Angola Lusaka, Zambia Kumasi, Ghana Maputo, Gaza, Sofala, Zambesia, Nampula, Inhambane, Tete, Mozambique Southern Sudan

BUILDING COLLAPSES April 2008 December 2007 2006 November 2006 April 2008 March 2008 June 2008 January 2008 March 2006 March 2006

Building collapses killing high school girl 23 dead in building collapse in Egypt Lagos building collapses New building collapses in Lagos Death toll climbs in Angola building collapse School building collapses, kills 13 pupils Six-storey building collapses in Dar es Salaam Uganda building collapse kills at least ten Building collapse kills at least 20 in Ugandan capital 23 confirmed dead in Ugandan church collapse

Nairobi, Kenya Alexandria, Egypt Lagos, Nigeria Lagos, Nigeria Luanda, Angola Ibadan, Nigeria Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Kampala, Uganda Kampala, Uganda Kampala, Uganda

RIOTS February 2008 November 2007 November 2005

Douala burns as taxi strike turns into general rioting Riots in Dakar Ethiopian violence spreads

Douala, Cameroon Dakar, Senegal Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Source: authors and Ana Pena Del Valle, based on EM-DAT database, University of Louvaine, Brussels

28 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa

Natural hazards Floods Floods are very common in African cities, are becoming more frequent and affect the urban poor most severely (Douglas et al, 2008). It is no surprise that flooding is taken up as a subject in several of the case study chapters in this book. In 1988, large portions of working-class Khartoum were under water. In 2000, Maputo, Mozambique, suffered extensive flooding, as did other smaller coastal cities further north on the Indian Ocean coast, Xai Xai and Chokwe (Christie and Hanlon, 2001; Cairncross and Alvarinho, 2006). Mozambique has a very long coastal plain, nearly 2000km, and it is crossed by 93 permanent and intermittent rivers, most of which originate outside its national borders, high on the African plateau (Wisner, 1979). This complicates meteorological extremes, such as large amounts of rain that accompany cyclones; there are land-use and even hydro-engineering practices over which Mozambique has no control. Thus a decision to release water from the Kariba dam in Zimbabwe without forewarning the management of the Cabora Basa dam downstream on Mozambique’s reach of the Zambezi necessitated an emergency release of water, in turn without sufficient warning to Mozambicans living downstream and at the mouth of the river (Christie and Hanlon, 2001; Wisner et al, 2004). Alexandra Township, a well-known working-class settlement near the centre of Johannesburg, suffers from frequent flash floods. The Juskei River flowing downslope of Alex (as it is called) is, in fact, a small but highly urbanized stream. Over the years so much of its catchment has been made impermeable by urbanization that it floods quickly. These floods undermine cliffs made up on unconsolidated landfill, on which some of Alex’s poorest and most recent residents have built shelters. In addition, three small tributaries descend Alex’s sloping terrain but disappeared under shack construction years ago. So even without major flooding on the Jukskei River, localized floods in the blocked path of these tributaries are common (Wisner, 1997).

Coastal storms Coastal storms are also common, and, as just noted, are connected with some forms of flooding. Winter gales from the Antarctic lash the large slum known as Kayalisha, near Cape Town, and cyclones affect the cities of Africa’s eastern coast, including cities on the Indian Ocean islands of Madagascar, the Comoros and Reunion.

Mass movements Landslides, mudslides and other mass movements are hazards in Africa’s mountainous regions, where low-income people live on steep slopes and in ravines near towns and cities such as Nairobi (Kenya), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Antananarivo (Malagasy Republic), Yaounde (Cameroun), Blantyre (Malawi), Durban (South Africa) and Kigali (Rwanda), in order to be near sources of livelihood.

African Cities of Hope and Risk 29

Seismic and volcanic hazards Earthquake and tsunami hazards are not unknown in Africa. Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania were all affected by the Asian tsunami in 2004, as the energy released by a large earthquake near Indonesia propagated across the Indian Ocean. The tsunami killed an estimated 150 people, displaced 5000 and affected 44,000 others in the north-eastern coastal region of Somalia (USAID, 2005). The Great Rift Valley runs from the Red Sea, south through Lake Malawi and into Mozambique. Seismic activity is common, but given relatively low population densities and low-rise flexible construction, deaths are not. Large dam construction – bound to accelerate as a national-level response to global climate change – may also increase seismic risk in some regions (Kirby, 2002). From 1980 to 2002 there were 50 serious earthquakes in sub-Saharan Africa, killing 23,000 people (UNEP, 2002). Addis Ababa’s authorities were sufficiently concerned with seismic hazards in the large highland city that they enrolled as one of the eight core cities in the UN’s RADIUS programme during the last three years of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990–1999). More recently, Kampala in Uganda has mobilized academic and political resources to focus on its seismic risk. In North Africa, Algeria’s coast has the highest levels of earthquake hazard – as discussed in the AURAN case study in this volume. Volcanic eruptions may threaten cities. There are quiescent and even active volcanoes ranging from Ethiopia, through Kenya and Tanzania, and into Malawi. In 2002 Goma, Republic of Congo, a city of 500,000 people and major trading centre, was split in two by fast-flowing lava from Mount Nyiragongo. Because the city was in the hands of an insurgent army at the time, there was no state or municipal administration to provide warning and to supervise evacuation (Wisner, 2002). Currents studies point to continued violent activity of Nyiragongo, a volcano that produces the fastest-flowing lava known. It is also possible that the carbon dioxide gas trapped deep in Lake Kivu near Goma could be released in a deadly cloud by a violent eruption and associated earthquakes. Given the proximity of growing cities such as Arusha to volcanoes, eruption emergencies cannot be ruled out. Even without lava flow hazards, accumulation of ash can be destructive and also harmful to people’s respiratory health.

Anthropogenic and technological hazards Explosions, fires and toxic emissions These acute urban hazards have taken place in African cities. They are not only centred in industrial facilities and ports but also ammunition storage used by the military. In January 2002, a munitions dump in Lagos exploded in the night, causing nearby residents to flee into swampy land in the dark, where many were drowned and trampled. Near many Nigerian towns over recent years people attempting to steal petrol from pipelines have sparked fires that have engulfed

30 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa whole neighbourhoods and killed scores of people. A similar accident occurred in Goma in 2002 when looters at a filling station were killed when rapidly advancing lava from the volcano ignited stored petrol.

Subsidence and sink holes Coastal erosion affects some cities and has recently been reported as accelerating along the East African coast and coastal Benin and Liberia. Sink holes are a hazard in areas where mining has taken place, as in the area to the south of Johannesburg, South Africa.

Illegal dumping of hazardous materials The twin dynamics of exclusion and informality provide ample space for the continuation of illegal dumping from both domestic and international sources, despite the international treaty banning export of hazardous waste (the Basel Convention of 1986, www.basel.int/convention/basics.html). Most dramatically, thousands of residents of the low-income suburbs of Abidjan, Cote D’Ivoire, became ill and some died after a sea-going vessel full of toxic material landed and secretly sent its cargo to be spread over a wide area at night. This boat had been turned away at a Dutch harbour and then made its way to the West African coast.

Shack fire Shack fires are a common occurrence in working-class and informal settlements in many African cities. They are endemic in South African cities. In some cases (for example Nairobi) there have been allegations that authorities have had fires set deliberately to move squatters from land desirable for development. The AURAN case study of Cape Town examines the threat of urban fire.

Air pollution Urban air quality is deteriorating in some African cities and has become a pervasive or seasonal hazard. The urban poor in many cities use charcoal as cooking fuel. In South African cities and elsewhere in southern Africa (Meseru, Lesotho and Gaborone, Botswana) mineral coal may be used. Both produce a pall of haze and particulates. A campaign to ban the use of leaded gasoline in automobiles has only been partly successful. In addition, very few industries from flour milling and wood working to refining have adequate technology to control emissions, as discussed in the AURAN case study of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Air quality in the vicinity of industrial facilities in Algiers is also mentioned as a problem in that AURAN case study.

Transportation hazards Transport is risky in and around African cities, as well as between them. Road safety is very poor, with the highest rate of injuries and fatalities per passenger kilometre in the world. The AURAN case study of Kisumu, Kenya focuses on

African Cities of Hope and Risk 31 road hazards and transportation accidents. In the recent past, old and poorly maintained aircraft have crashed into residential quarters near airports. Railway derailments and collisions occur, one in Tanzania on the central line from Dar es Salaam to the interior in 2002 taking nearly 300 lives (BBC, 2002). So too are ferry boat disasters known on Africa’s Great Lakes and off its coasts.

Public health hazards Water and sanitation hazards These remain a very great concern for the 72 per cent of African urban dwellers who live in slums. Not only is diarrhoea still one of the major causes of child death, but malaria is also a water-related hazard linked to improper and inadequate drainage. Between the two of them, diarrhoeal disease and malaria kill 6 million African children each year (BBC, 2008; UNICEF, 2008). Many of these children are in cities, despite the fact that, in theory, there is better access to medical attention for those suffering. As Moreno and Warah (2006) observe: In some cities like Khartoum and Nairobi, the prevalence of diarrhoea is much higher among slum children than those in rural areas. Child deaths in slums are attributed not so much to lack of immunization but more to inadequate living conditions, such as lack of access to water and sanitation or indoor air pollution, which leads to water-borne and respiratory illnesses among children.

HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS incidence is higher in southern and eastern African cities than in the countryside (UNAIDS, 2006). The risks of transmission are correspondingly higher. Although, against this are balanced the more accessible media messages of state and civil society about the risk, and access to condoms in cities. HIV/AIDS is a major crisis for African cities and is considered here as an element of the hazard landscape, for example in the AURAN chapter from Ghana, but also as a larger framing pressure that contributes to the development challenge for all urban centres in Africa and worldwide.

Social hazards Violent crime Crimes against persons are prevalent in African cities; small arms have flooded much of the continent owing to the many African countries that experienced civil conflict during the 1990s. In South Africa some 50,000 murders occur each year. Former child soldiers who are not successfully reintegrated into society may fall prey to criminal gangs in cities and are themselves at considerable risk. Thus for social as well as individual health reasons, more attention needs to be

32 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa focused on psychological and social recovery of these youthful victims/perpetrators (Wisner, 2004). However, one must also avoid accepting an outsider’s stereotype of anomie and social chaos. Sophie Body-Gendrot studied Johannesburg and concluded that there is a great deal of local informal response to the hazards posed by crime (2008, p144): More innovative, it seems to me, are efforts of the poor themselves to take charge in a quiet way … These [efforts] take place on the margins of the law … [for example] building street barriers, keeping attack dogs … negotiation with gangs. Survival depends on an exchange of services and compromise, and the informal solution of conflict.

Civil conflict While during periods of civil war, as during the 1980s in Mozambique and Angola, rural people sought refuge in cities, in other cases the city itself has become the site of vicious fighting, as in Mogadishu (Somalia) and Monrovia (Sierra Leone). In 2008 we have seen considerable urban violence in the Kenyan cities of Eldoret, Nakuru, Kisumu and in the slums of Nairobi as rival youth militias organized by tribal or clan leaders attacked people they thought responsible for post-colonial injustices. All this was simmering for many years in the form of rural land disputes in the west of the country but exploded over perceived election irregularities in 2008. Similarly, many South African cities were the scene of violent attacks on foreign Africans who had migrated, many from urban violence in Zimbabwe. These riots killed 40 and displaced another 26,000.

Terrorism This is a new and somewhat exotic hazard to appear on the African urban scene, possibly exaggerated as a policy and resource priority because of donor and diplomatic pressure since the US embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, and the attacks on Israeli tourists in Mombassa. There is very limited evidence of the urban poor being targeted for terrorist attacks but nevertheless, international policy priorities mean this is now squarely on the risk management agenda of urban Africa.

THE CONTINUUM OF URBAN RISK IN AFRICA What should one make of the wide array of risks facing the average urban dweller in an African city? One thing is clear: day-to-day risks ranging from public health hazards, transportation accidents and threats to pedestrians, to social violence are doubtless the first concerns of most people. They are most frequent, and while not producing mass casualties in most cases, the people and

African Cities of Hope and Risk 33 families affected have few resources to fall back upon. Compared with these everyday concerns and those of urban fire and seasonal flooding, it is likely that risk communication efforts targeting high-impact but low-frequency disasters associated with volcanic eruption, earthquakes, tsunami or even large coastal storm hazards will have a difficult uphill struggle. The salience of these less frequent events in people’s already burdened lives is a difficult connection to make. A team based in the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) has proposed the following scheme to represent the continuum of risk in African cities (see Table 2.3). Note in the schema that the impact for the city in economic and political terms is greatest for catastrophic events. This is because of the media attention paid to them and the fact that infrastructure is often damaged or destroyed that is public and thus repair or replacement falls to the city. Little African urban infrastructure is insured by comparison with other parts of the world. By contrast, small everyday events are the main cause of premature death and serious injury (and in epidemiological terms, in aggregate, a large reduction of disability adjusted life years – DALYs). Their economic and social costs fall on the families of the affected and have Table 2.3 Comparing disasters, small disasters and everyday risks in urban Africa Nature of event

Disasters

Small disasters

Everyday hazards

Frequency

Generally infrequent

Every day

Scale

Large, or potential to be large (e.g. 10 or more killed, 100 or more seriously injured, need for external assistance) Can be catastrophic for particular places and times for most low- and middleincome nations, but generally a low overall contribution to premature death and serious injury

Frequent (often seasonal) 3–9 persons killed, 10 or more injured

Total impact

An integrated framework incorporating risk from disasters and ‘non-disaster’ events

Probably a significant and considerably underestimated contribution to premature death and serious illness or injury

VERY LARGE IMPACT FOR CITY LOW FREQUENCY

Source: Bull-Kamanga et al (2003)

1–2 persons killed, 1–9 injured

In most African urban areas, these remain the main cause of premature death and serious injury

SMALL IMPACT FOR CITY CONTINUUM OF RISK

VERY HIGH FREQUENCY

34 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa little political fallout on the city administration. Much African urban flooding, large shack fires and epidemics fall into the intermediate category. This kind of risk is largely unstudied – falling between the professional mandates of medical science and disaster studies, which tend to focus on small and very large events, respectively. The erosive effect of this intermediate group of risks on economic life and social cohesion may well be underestimated.

THE ACCUMULATION OF RISK: PROCESSES THAT EXPOSE PEOPLE TO HAZARD IMPACT AND MAKE RECOVERY DIFFICULT

Over the past two decades a consensus has emerged that risk is a function of a hazard and the vulnerability of a population. As we have seen above, the range of hazards in African urban space is large and diverse, including many physical, social and economic events and their attendant processes and contexts. However, not everyone is equally vulnerable to the impact of these events. Likewise, people do not have equal chances of recovery. To understand why these hazards exist in African cities and the origin and persistence of disparities in their impacts, one has to return to this chapter’s earlier discussion of African urbanization and urban life.

The challenge of urban planning The core of most Africa cities is colonial, and with this today’s planners have inherited the earlier spatial pattern of racial segregation transformed now into one of economic privilege. Core and periphery persist, and the periphery has grown so that in many cities the majority of the population lives in ‘peripheral’ areas with limited access to public services. At independence, African administrations were faced with already large working-class settlements that were minimally served or completely unserved by infrastructure and urban public services. While attempting to extend services during the 1970s and 1980s, these cities faced increasing migration from rural areas, expansion of their periphery and, indeed, the development of ‘rurban’ conditions even, beyond squatter or spontaneous settlements. Most African governments are quite centralized in terms of financial management and budgeting (despite the rhetoric of decentralization). Thus cities in the 1970s and 1980s were dependent on national budgets for the means of governing increasing populations, providing them with basic services, and supervising the health and safety of formal sector construction and industrial investment. Financial conditions became even tighter for urban managers from the mid1980s onwards as structural adjustment plans imposed by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) took hold. National budgets and payrolls were slashed. New groups of urban poor were generated as many public sector workers lost their jobs and livelihoods. For the urban poor, life became harder as

African Cities of Hope and Risk 35 government investment in public sector health, education, social housing and policing was reduced (Riddell, 1997). Add to this an increasing degree of corruption as people at various levels struggled with the new realities of structural adjustment in the 1990s, and it is easy to see why high-rise buildings are inadequately inspected and collapse – most recently a ten-storey building in the heart of Dar es Salaam’s old colonial core in June 2008. So, too, traffic law enforcement, maintenance of roads, inspection of potentially hazardous industries, fire prevention and sanitation all come at a cost, and the means are less and less available. From the 1980s onwards, investment in maintaining urban infrastructure began to fall. In Dar es Salaam, for example, the city maintenance budget fell by 8.5 per cent annually from 1978–1987. In Nairobi, the maintenance was budgeted at US$7.30 per inhabitant in 1981 but only US$2.30 by 1987 (Dubresson and Raison, 2007). During the 1990s, a wave of infrastructure privatization was touted as a solution to the fiscal crisis of the African city. Economic globalization had seen the rise of huge, transnational engineering firms that were taking on urban water supply, sanitation and electricity in cities across the continent and globally. The theory was that direct overseas investment (DOI) by such firms with long-term management contracts would allow extension of infrastructure and improvements in efficiency. Nairobi’s water system notoriously lost 40 per cent of its water before it reached the end user, for example. Results have been mixed. Usually the new managers raised the charges for service, and this provoked popular protest and even riots, adding to the political woes of African governments. Promised extensions have not kept pace with urban growth. Meanwhile, the city governments themselves usually did not have the trained personnel to properly oversee these complex management contracts.

Tale of two cities What has emerged are urban centres composed of at least two cities. Economic globalization and corruption have created opportunities for the few. The African elite live in the gated suburbs and the beach developments of the former colonial civil servants. The ‘modern’ city boasts some degree of standard urban services and safety – although street crime remains a threat. But little of the largesse of oil revenues, DOI, tourist income and direct budget support by donors has ‘trickled down’ to the working poor. They live in the expanding urban periphery, in rurban homesteads where they try to grow for the urban market (for example, the fishing community discussed in the AURAN case study of Saint-Louis, Senegal), or enclaved in the slums of the former colonial core and sprawling periphery. Most of the hazards discussed above are rife in these underserved or unserved urban peripheries, where there is minimal or no regulation of waste dumping (including hazardous waste), poor drainage and little fire protection.

36 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa The French geographers Dubresson and Raison (2007) express a cynical view of the de facto division of African urban space into these two parts. Rather than seeing this as the outcome of a failed policy or of policy still-born for lack of resources, they believe that the urban poor have simply been excluded by the political elite.

Fourfold burden of the poor What makes the situation more critical is the fact that the better-off zones of the city externalize nuisances and waste and these can accumulate in those zones inhabited by the poor. McGranahan et al (2001) describe this process as the urban environmental transition that results in a burden for the poor of multiple, nested environmental risks. From the perspective of the urban poor, production of waste is limited to household or small business waste, and where sanitation or solid waste collection services are inadequate this generates a local hazard for public health, fire and flooding as drains are blocked. Industrialization produces wealth for a minority and work for some but air and water pollution for many in unregulated cities; it is the poor who live in closest proximity to polluting industry and are thus exposed to a second additional threat (this became a disaster most strikingly in Bhopal, India where a toxic gas release killed 15,000 neighbouring low-income residents). As cities grow in wealth and complexity – especially through increased demand for energy and transport – greenhouse gas emissions can increase; these feed back to the city by increasing hydrometeorological hazard and sea-level rise and also contributing to uncertainty in the global economy that can be felt locally, for example in increased food costs. The poor who have least capacity to protect themselves or each other from uncertainty are again most at risk to this third burden of the environmental transition. To this Pelling (2003) adds a fourth burden, the poor are often exposed to extreme natural events, such as flooding and landslides, as well as other risks, such as fire, because of the locations of their settlements, their density and the building materials used. Robert Chambers wrote, now classically, in 1983 of the ratchet effect that locked people into poverty through the interaction of political powerlessness, illness, marginality and vulnerability. In precisely this way, over time there is an accumulation of risk in African urban dwellers’ lives. As noted earlier, the truly catastrophic disasters are relatively infrequent. However, lives and livelihoods are stressed by the daily accumulation of insults to the body, mind and physical environment due to pollution, poor sanitation, transportation hazards, crime and poverty. The social cost of disability due to the many amputations that followed the Pakistan earthquake has been recognized, as has the enormous toll in blindness and chronic respiratory dysfunction that even 20 years after the Bhopal gas leak are the condition of life for thousands of Indians. However, city authorities do not routinely monitor the erosive effect of injuries in small, unregulated factories, traffic accidents and shack fires.

African Cities of Hope and Risk 37

City as melting pot or battle ground? Colonial era sociology thought of the city as the venue for a process of detribalization. At that time some saw this as a social hazard because of the chance that a less governable urban underclass would emerge. As Mamdani (1996) notes, late colonialism employed indirect rule over native subjects by local chiefs who invoked customary law. Without tribal identity and the power structure of chiefs and sub-chiefs in the city, indirect rule would have to become direct rule. Confrontations between the state and the governed would be inevitable (and they were). Others saw the process as positive as it would lead to a ‘modernization’ of attitudes. In fact, those debates are moot because the interplay among culture, identity, politics and economic interest has proven to be much more complex. Clan war in Mogadishu and other Somali towns have made them some of the most dangerous places on the continent. The post-election violence in Kenya (December 2007 and onward) saw formerly cosmopolitan slums such as Kibera and Mathare erupt along tribal lines, as did the cities of Kisumu, Eldoret and Nakuru. The massacre of foreign African shopkeepers and job seekers in several South African cities during the summer of 2008 came also as a surprising outburst of xenophobia. In a more muted way, crime committed in the cities of the north of Tanzania – Arusha and Moshi – is popularly attributed to Kenyans from across the border. Elites in Africa are not above using a divide and rule strategy similar to the creation of what Mamdani (1996) calls decentralized despotism by the colonial inventors of indirect rule. Therefore, judging by recent events and the great efforts of local peace movements notwithstanding, the African city may become even more hazardous as identity-linked social conflict increases.

APPROACHES TO URBAN SAFETY Chapter 3 provides an overview of good practice and an ‘ideal’ system of urban risk management. As we will see in the AURAN case studies, few African cities have managed to achieve such a system, although there are some good practices to be cited. Chapter 10 takes up approaches to urban safety again from the point of view of the lessons learned from the case studies. However, as a preliminary broad-brush overview, one might say there are both informal and formal approaches to the risks of African urban life.

Informal approaches to urban safety Informality has already been mentioned above. It is often ignored or misunderstood. Satterthwaite (in ProVention Consortium, 2006 p24, emphasis in original) states that:

38 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa while helping low-income groups to adapt to risk is an important part of risk reduction, it is important to consider whether efforts to help them are also helping to change the risk profile. Experience had shown that even developmental states and NGOs had failed to deliver. Organised federations of the urban poor in many locations had done their own hazard mapping in two weeks at between one tenth and one twentieth of the cost of professional engagement. Earlier discussion of the continuum of risk including everyday risk, or what others have called the risks of daily life (Wisner, 1993), remind one that spontaneous, informal coping can only take some but not all of the risks into account. Individual household and neighbourhood resources are scarce. Time is also scarce in situations where people are struggling day to day to make ends meet. ‘Doing nothing’ is, counter-intuitively, a proactive coping option under such circumstances, and, as we shall see in several of the AURAN case studies, also in situations where regulations or suggestions provided by representatives of the state are either unrealistic or lack credibility because the state or its representative is not trusted. Insecure land tenure in the city is arguably the most important single constraint shaping the willingness of individuals to invest scarce personal or communal resources in safety. Pelling (2008, p186) explains: The most important physical asset for the urban poor is housing. Housing provides personal security, but can also be a livelihood resource … lack of secure tenure reduces people’s willingness to upgrade and therefore mitigate local environmental hazard. Renters as well as those living in squatter settlements are at risk from eviction. Much informal response to risk is nevertheless highly organized, although nongovernmental. Various studies have revealed complex issues of governance and social networks. Groups such as slum dwellers that may in the past have been thought to be ‘counter-development’ are now regarded as having innovative solutions to urban problems. Chapter 3 discusses a number of tools and methods that allow these innovative solutions to be brought explicitly into the formal urban planning context.

Formal approaches to urban safety Pelling (2004) states: Local or municipal government is perhaps the most critical actor in urban governance. Only local government can act as a facilitator between local communities and the state, between civil society and the private sector. Most importantly it is only local government that is elected and can represent the

African Cities of Hope and Risk 39 diverse communities of the city. In recent years it has not been fashionable for donors or national government to support local government but the tide here is turning and real opportunities exist for building imaginative urban development policy centred around inclusive governance. In large cities this generally means that sub-metropolitan jurisdictions such as the ward or neighbourhood committees should feature prominently in risk awareness and mitigation work. However, in African cities capacity and financial resources are often scarce, even at the national and metropolitan scale. Such constraints limit implementation but they do not invalidate the importance of having a highly local interface between government and civil society (as well as the private sector). Another characteristic of African urban governance is fragmentation. Issues of urban safety fall among numerous professional and administrative departments, including the police and fire services, health care and public health, public works, education, housing and so on. As a result of international encouragement during the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990–1999) and the continuing work of the UN’s International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR, 2005), some African nations now have interdepartmental platforms for disaster risk reduction. Also in some cases African nations have built disaster risk reduction into their World Bank-assisted poverty reduction strategy programmes, and indeed one of the Millennium Development Goals (number 7) – to improve the lives of 100 million slum dwellers by 2020 – provides an important policy opportunity to make disaster risk reduction a major urban priority. Do date, however, urgent day-to-day urban problems in rapidly growing, resource-poor African cities have limited the degree to which coordinated, focused disaster risk reduction has become an explicit and routine part of urban governance, including that focused on adaptation to the local and citywide impacts of climate change. This is not surprising since urban safety involves the root causes of vulnerability. These lie deeply embedded in fragile livelihoods, macroeconomic and microeconomic systems that are generally not ‘pro-poor’, and the physical form of cities that are mostly unplanned and minimally serviced (Pelling, 2004).

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Africa is urbanizing rapidly due primarily to natural increase in cities and rural exodus due to the hardships suffered by rural dwellers – ranging from civil war to the economic pressures of globalization. Much of this growth is taking place in small towns and medium-sized cities, where there is potential for responsive governance and sustainable regional development, yet to date they are underfinanced and poorly staffed outposts of the centralist nation state. The World

40 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa Summit on Hunger meeting in Rome in June 2008 estimated that industrialcountry subsidies to their farmers (running at more than US$1 billion a day) cost small farmers in the South as much as US$10 billion in income because they cannot compete for market share. Partly as a result, in Africa as well as Latin America and parts of Asia one has witnessed a process of de-peasantization. Small farmers and pastoralists are giving up and moving to cities. The resulting urban form and sociology is distinctly informal in African cities, and the interface between formal urban governance and informal ways of life is often fraught with misunderstanding and outright mistrust. Civil society serves to a degree as a mediator between that state and the mass of working poor in African cities, but so far has not taken on much of a role in urban risk reduction – the important exceptions are some social and health areas of concern: youth violence, peace making, HIV/AIDS and malaria, for example. Some examples of civil society involvement in urban disaster risk reduction in the AURAN case studies show the potential for their involvement, yet they remain exceptions to the rule. Formal institutional arrangements for risk assessment and reduction are weak and lack capacity. Links between academia and the state are also very limited in this area. Disinvestment in maintenance of infrastructure and services from the 1980s onwards make it difficult enough for the urban state to provide routine services, let alone effectively plan for and prevent disasters. Thus while urban Africans face a wide continuum of risk from daily to occasional catastrophic risks, there is little capacity or funding and few institutional vehicles for dealing with them in a comprehensive manner.

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African Cities of Hope and Risk 41 Cairncross, S. and Alvarinho, M. J. C. (2006) ‘The Mozambique floods of 2000: Health impact and response’, in R. Few (ed) Flooding and Health, Earthscan, London, pp111–127 Chambers, R. (1983) Rural Development: Putting the Last First, Longman, London Christie, F. and Hanlon, J. (2001) Mozambique and the Great Flood of 2000, Indiana University Press, Bloomington, IN Davis, M. (2004) ‘Planet of slums’, New Left Review 26, 2nd Series, March–April, pp5–34 Direction de la Protection Civile (2007) Rapport sur L’Etat de la Protection Civile au Cameroun, Government of Cameroun, Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization, Yaounde, Cameroun, www.dpcminat.cm Douglas, I., Alam, K., Machenda, M., McDonnell, Y., McClean, L. and Campbell, J. (2008) ‘Unjust waters: Climate change, flooding and the urban poor in Africa’, Environment and Urbanization, vol 20, no 1, pp187–205, http://eau.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/20/1/187 accessed 31 July 2008 Dubresson, A. and Raison, J.-P. (2007) L’Afrique subsaharienne: Une geographie du changement, Armand Colin, Paris EM-DAT (2008) Emergency Events Database, CRED, Louvain, Belgium, www.emdat.be/ accessed 16 July 2008 Frumkin, H., Frank, L. and Jackson, R. (2004) Urban Sprawl and Public Health, Island Press, Washington DC Guyer, J. (ed) (1987) Feeding African Cities, Manchester University Press, Manchester Kirby, A. (2002) ‘Earthquake risk from dams’, BBC Online, 9 May, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1974736.stm accessed 21 October 2007 Mamdani, M. (1996) Citizen and Subject: Contemporary Africa and the Legacy of Late Colonialism, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ Manu, A., Twumasi, Y.A., Coleman, T. L. and Jean-Baptiste, T. S. (2003) ‘Investigation of the impact of urban sprawl in three Sahelian cities using remotely-sensed information’, Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Proceedings IEEE International, vol 2, no 21–25, pp988–990 Mboup, G. (2004) ‘Measurement/indicators of youth employment’, Expert Group Meeting on Strategies for Creating Urban Youth Employment: Solutions for Urban Youth in Africa. UN-Habitat, Nairobi, www.un.org/esa/socdev/social/presentation/ urban_mboup.ppt accessed 21 October 2007 McGranahan, G., Jacobi, P., Songsore, J., Surjadi, C. and Kjellen, M. (2001) The Citizen at Risk: From Urban Sanitation to Sustainable Cities, Earthscan, London Moreno, E. L. and Warah, R. (2006) ‘Urban and Slum Trends in the 21st Century’, UN Chronicle On-Line Edition, vol 43, no 2, www.un.org/Pubs/chronicle/2006/issue2/0206p24.htm accessed on 14 October 2007 Pelling, M. (2003) The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social Resilience, Earthscan, London Pelling, M. (2004) ‘The vulnerability of cities’, The Environment Times, UNEP/GRID Arendal, www.grida.no/publications/et/ep3/page/2600.aspx accessed 24 July 2008 Pelling, M. (2008) ‘Disaster risk: Conditions, trends and impacts’, in UN-HABITAT (ed) Enhancing Urban Safety and Security: Global Report on Human Settlements, Earthscan, London ProVention Consortium (2006) ‘Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in the management of urban planning and governance in Africa’, summary report on the African Urban Risk Analysis Network (AURAN) workshop, 7–9 March, Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by DiMP, University of Cape Town, www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/default/ pdfs/urban_risk/AURAN_March06_report.pdf accessed 25 October 2007 Riddell, B. (1997) ‘Structural adjustment programmes and the city in tropical Africa’, Urban Studies, vol 34, no 8, pp1297–1307

42 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa Toulmin, C. and Wisner, B. (2005) ‘Introduction’, in B. Wisner, C. Toulmin and R. Chitiga (eds) Towards a New Map of Africa, Earthscan, London, pp1–49 UNAIDS (2006) UNAIDS 2006 Report Slide Show, http://data.unaids.org/pub/ GlobalReport/2006/2006GlobalReportSlide008.ppt accessed 31 July 2008 UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) (2002) ‘Earthquake risk alert for Africa’s mountain regions’, www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID= 248&ArticleID=3047&l=en accessed 19 October 2007 UNEP (2003) ‘Urban areas: Africa’, GEO-3, www.grida.no/geo/geo3/english/410.htm#fig248b accessed 26 October 2007 UNEP (2007a) ‘Africa: Urban population to double,’ www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=72956 accessed 27 October 2007 UNEP (2007b) ‘Population data base’, Global Resource Information Base, GRID-UNEP, Sioux Falls, SD, http://na.unep.net/cgi-bin/mapserv?map=%2Fedclxs25%2Fwww%2Fims% 2Fmapfiles%2Funep%2Fpopafrica.map&layers=Population00&program= %2Fcgibin%2Fmapserv&map_web_imagepath=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_imageurl= %2Ftmp%2F&map_web_template=%2Fedclxs25%2Fwww%2Fhtdocs%2FUNEP% 2Fms_demo2%2Fpopulation%2FmainPop.html&layers=Countries accessed 27 October 2007 UN-HABITAT (United Nations Human Settlement Programme) (2006) State of the World’s Cities 2006/7, Earthscan, London UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund) (2008) The State of Africa’s Children, UNICEF, New York, www.unicef.org/childsurvival/files/SOAC.pdf accessed 31 July 2008 UN-ISDR (2005) Hyogo Framework of Action, www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/docs/Hyogo-framework-for-action-english.pdf accessed 30 July 2008 UN Population Division (2001) World Urbanization Prospects, The 2001 Revision, United Nations, New York USAID (United States Agency for International Development) (2005) ‘Somalia complex emergency and Tsunami situation report #2’, ReliefWeb, www.reliefweb.int/rw/ rwb.nsf/db900SID/EGUA-6GQS2G?OpenDocument accessed 24 July 2008 Vaughan, M. (1987) The Story of a Famine, Oxford University Press, Oxford Wisner, B. (1979) ‘Flood prevention and mitigation in the People’s Republic of Mozambique’, Disasters, vol 3, no 3, pp293–306 Wisner, B. (1993) ‘Disaster vulnerability: Scale, power, and daily life’, GeoJournal, vol 30, no 2, pp127–140 Wisner, B. (1997) ‘Environmental health and safety in urban South Africa’, in B. Johnston (ed) Life and Death Matters, Altamira, Walnut Creek, CA Wisner, B. (2002) ‘Goma: A city at risk’, Peacework (March), www.peaceworkmagazine.org/pwork/0203/020319.htm accessed 10 October 2007 Wisner, B. (2004) ‘Urbanization’, in The Feinstein International Famine Center (ed) Ambiguity and Change: Humanitarian NGOs Prepare for the Future, report prepared for World Vision, CARE, Save US, Mercy Corps, Oxfam USA, Oxfam GB and Catholic Relief Services, The Feinstein International Famine Center, Tufts University, Medford, MA http://nutrition.tufts.edu/docs/pdf/famine/ambiguity_and_change.pdf accessed 25 July 2008 Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T. and Davis, I. (2004) At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters, 2nd Edition, Routledge, London Women Feeding Cities (2004) ‘Women feeding cities’, workshop in Accra, Ghana, 20–23 September, www.ruaf.org/node/59 accessed 26 July 2008 World Bank (2000) Entering the 21st Century: World Development Report 1999/2000, Oxford University Press, Oxford

3

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

Mark Pelling and Ben Wisner

INTRODUCTION This chapter provides a review of disaster risk reduction practice to help frame the case studies in Part II. The chapter is divided into four areas of professional practice. Each interacts with the others on the ground but is separated here to help analysis. Two areas are predominantly considered to be the responsibility of urban development and two of disaster management. Where disaster risk reduction works best, the activities of both groups of professionals are integrated and, most importantly, wherever possible urban dwellers and their civil society organizations are involved. Table 3.1 presents these areas of professional practice and for each identifies core activities and lead stakeholders. Of the four areas of practice identified as central for urban disaster risk reduction, only one – emergency management – includes the emergency services, civil defence and disaster management coordinators. The remaining three areas of practice have primary stakeholders from the development community. This highlights the significance of disaster risk management as a development concern. As Chapter 2 has shown, it is private sector activity, public sector urban management (or the lack of it) and the efforts of ordinary people to provide themselves with shelter and livelihoods that shape vulnerability and hazard landscapes in the city. Consequently, all of these stakeholders are well placed to reduce disaster risk, especially if they cooperate with one another. The actor with the single greatest potential to contribute to urban disaster risk reduction is the local or municipal government. Pelling (2008) identifies the

44 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa Table 3.1 Urban disaster risk reduction: Multiple activities and stakeholders Professional Community

Development Planning

Development Regulation

Risk Management

Core activities Land use, transport, critical infrastructure

Building codes, pollution control, traffic policing

Vulnerability and risk assessment, building local resilience

Primary stakeholders

Environmental regulation, law enforcement, contractors, factory owners, drivers’ and transporters’ associations

Urban planners, city engineers, critical infrastructure planners, homeowners, private property managers, investors, transportation users, taxi drivers’ associations, other professional associations, academia

Emergency Management

Early warning, emergency response and reconstruction planning Primary health Environmental care, sanitation monitoring, and water supply, emergency community services, civil development, defence, disaster local economic management development, coordination, fire infrastructure fighters, police, management, military, Red waste hauliers’ Cross/Crescent associations, societies water users’ representatives

following contributions of local government to urban disaster risk reduction that range across each of the four practice areas identified in Table 3.1: • • • • • •

land tenure regularization and upgrading of settlements; relocation of settlements at high risk; land-use planning to inform new construction; updating and implementing building codes for disaster-resistant housing and places of work; protecting critical infrastructure; improving early warning systems.

In theory, local government can extend its contribution to urban disaster risk reduction beyond these management functions through its unique positioning in the institutional architecture of urban governance. Local government has access to local knowledge as well as national government support and influence. It acts as a regulator and commissioner for private sector and civil society work. It serves also as an arbiter in decision-making as well as an advocate for local needs and priorities. Following disaster, it is local government that is best placed to coordinate emergency response, relief and reconstruction, unless the event is hugely catastrophic and renders local government dysfunctional, in which case sub-national (regional) or national response is required. Local government also should have, in theory, the authority to negotiate with international humanitarian

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 45 NGOs and to connect aid packages to pre-disaster development goals. Perhaps most important, local government is directly accountable to the population through elections and also through everyday contact with local leaders and community actors, who provide legitimacy (Pelling, 2003). This, at any rate, is the ideal situation. Sadly, across urban Africa and wider afield, local government is unable to achieve the ambitions of theory. Co-option by political and economic interests undermines legitimacy and distances local government from the electorate. In the worst cases local government is less concerned with advocating for local needs and more with controlling local development and political organization or extracting rent for private gain. Most commonly though, local government lacks the skills and organizational and economic capacity to fully meet even its core tasks (Simone, 2002). The undercapacity of local government has worsened over the last 15 years with decentralization programmes that have transferred national government responsibilities to local government without a commensurate increase in funding or support. In poor cities or neighbourhoods, where property tax and other income for local government is minimal, this has created a crisis in capacity – a major contributing factor to the continuing inability of urban development actors in Africa to work to reduce disaster risk (UNDP, 2004). The pervasive importance of local government is reflected in the selection of stakeholders highlighted in Table 3.1. There is a focus on public sector actors working for the municipal government or line ministries. But this is not a complete picture. Alongside the public sector and working with varying degrees of partnership are the private sector and civil society. The private sector is also a lead actor in development planning through the provision and management of critical infrastructure including potable water, solid waste management and electricity generation. Privatization of service provision in 16 African countries was sought by private consortia between 1990 and 2007. The results have been mixed, with a recent report for the World Bank arguing that privatization has not improved the efficiency or equity in access to drinking water for African cities (Kirkpatrick et al, 2006). Local private sector actors are also involved in providing critical infrastructure, for example, 25 independent operators are registered in Bamako, Mali and about 200 in Maputo and Matola, Mozambique (Kauffmann and Pérard, 2007). The formal involvement of civil society actors is most prominent in local risk management programmes and projects. CBOs, local associations and local NGOs are common leaders or partners in local risk reduction through community health care, local hazard mitigation or livelihood strengthening work, as well as through the national societies of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, often active in schools and boasting many hundreds of trained first aiders and other volunteers. Because all development and risk reduction work affects local actors, civil society is potentially an active and leading partner in each of the four areas of

46 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa practice. Roles played by civil society vary from passive consultation to participation through labour to leadership roles as local actors contributing to plans and to regulation and management decision-making. For example, local citizens’ groups may be included in government-led upgrading of slum settlements. Each neighbourhood and city has its own balance of public, private and civil society involvement in the activities that comprise urban disaster risk reduction. This is determined by the legacy of past development policy and by present initiatives. In Dar es Salaam, Tanzania for example, there is a strong foundation for civil society involvement built on a post-colonial investments in adult literacy, democratic elections and a strong (although mixed) legacy of Ujaama (cooperative development), as well as traditional local leadership structures. This social heritage is enhanced by the active presence of many international developmental NGOs. The influence of the international private sector is also felt, with support from financial institutions, such as the World Bank, that have promoted privatization of potable water provision, albeit with limited success. Each area of practice is discussed in detail below and case study evidence is presented throughout the chapter. Although public sector and civil society projects are most common, the reader is invited to ask what scope there may be for more involvement from the private sector, as well as innovative ways in which the public sector and civil society can intervene to reduce disaster risk.

OPTIONS FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Disaster risk reduction initiatives include all of those actions that seek to make individuals, households, communities or society as a whole more resilient to disaster. But change is needed to effect any action that will reduce risk. The processes of making change are crucial components of disaster risk reduction. It is one thing to have an encyclopaedia of techniques for reducing disaster, but without advocacy to build support among practitioners, politicians and the public, disaster risk reduction initiatives will be difficult to move from rhetoric to practice. This can be as much of a challenge at the local level as it is in municipal and national government. When thinking about making change in African cities, three levels of engagement are equally important: institutions, policies and techniques. Table 3.2 outlines the focus and provides examples for each level of engagement. Each level supports the others so it is easier to lobby for local disaster risk reduction investment in a city where there is a legal responsibility on the part of local government to facilitate risk management. It is also easier to lobby for the virtues of risk reduction in a city where local experience has shown the economic and social benefits of this approach to development policy. Across Africa, governments are beginning to integrate disaster risk reduction into development planning. One of the first was Morocco, which established a National Coordination Committee within the Division of the

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 47 Table 3.2 Institutions, policies and techniques for disaster risk reduction Level of Change

Focus

Examples

Institutions

Lobby for supportive legislation. Challenge cultural norms and received wisdom that assume disaster risk and loss are acceptable costs for economic growth. Integrate disaster risk reduction stakeholders into decision-making across city and national government. Integrate the goals of disaster risk reduction into poverty alleviation, economic planning and environmental management policy.

Legislation enacting a national framework for disaster risk reduction with specified responsibilities at the municipal and local levels. Disaster risk reduction advocates invited to sit on committees for economic and policy planning.

Policies

Techniques

Introduce disaster risk reduction techniques into everyday work practices for urban development.

Social policy including social safety nets, social housing, community health care and social insurance to target the reduction of vulnerability to disaster risk as part of poverty alleviation. Construction techniques, land-use planning, slum upgrading to include disaster risk reduction tools.

Environment at the Ministry of Land Use Planning, Water and Environment in 1994. The National Committee has held several thematic workshops, for example on housing and urban planning, and on the development of a national strategy for disaster risk management. More recently South Africa’s Disaster Management Act, 2003, is one of the most comprehensive national frameworks for disaster risk reduction worldwide. The Act identifies specific responsibilities for municipal government for hazard mitigation and risk reduction (Pelling and Holloway, 2006). Policy integration is also taking place in Africa. One success story comes from Malawi. Here, through partnership with an international NGO (Tearfund), a national NGO, the Evangelical Association of Malawi (EAM), with experience in disaster risk reduction, was asked to participate in the formulation of a National Social Protection Policy. Before this, civil society representation had not included an organization with expertise in disaster risk reduction. The invitation arose from a research project where Tearfund and EAM worked with the government of Malawi to assess national capacity. The government also included EAM in a group of stakeholders to meet with government to monitor and contribute to its progress on addressing climate change (La Trobe and Faleiro, 2007). New techniques for reducing vulnerability and mitigating hazard are also being applied across urban settlements in Africa. Some innovations are local, while others have been imported from experiences elsewhere, often through the work of international NGOs or South–South cooperation. For example, The

48 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa Women and Shelter Network (www.hicwas.kabissa.org/memtray.htm), which was formed in 1987 with support from UN-HABITAT, has partners in 30 countries, including member organizations in Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The network promotes women’s rights to safe and secure housing, including safety from environmental hazards and disasters. At the forefront of applying new techniques to reduce disaster risk are local actors: CBOs, local government, primary health care, local police and emergency services. The remainder of this chapter provides detail on the kinds of technical innovations and opportunities that exist and are being applied in African cities. A common challenge for all is the difficulty of building on local success stories so they can spread to the wider city – or even other cities. In ending this section we have come to a central challenge for urban disaster risk reduction. How to bring together bottom-up energy and innovation for disaster risk reduction with top-down legislative and policy support? Across Africa and wider afield, progress in one realm is often disconnected from the other. New institutional arrangements and legislation do not appear to generate the local changes needed to reduce disaster risk; similarly where local innovations are successful they are rarely scaled up and reproduced through municipal and national government support and action.

TECHNIQUES FOR URBAN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Development planning Development planning activities include planning, construction and maintenance of the physical infrastructure of the city. Activities are principally the responsibility of local government or central government line ministries with varying degrees of consultation with, and participation of, community associations and business interests. Where infrastructure works are supported by international financial institutions these actors will also influence design and management decisions, though implementation is usually a responsibility for national and local actors.

Land-use planning Land-use planning is perhaps the most fundamental tool for integrating disaster risk reduction with urban planning. Decision-making for land-use planning requires a multi-stakeholder approach, with a rigorous, independent and transparent procedure for overcoming conflicting interests. Algeria’s National Land Use Planning Model is a case in point. Developing this national framework in 2005 necessitated coordination between scientists, planners and policy-makers, and harmonization with local land-use planning models (ISDR, 2005).

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 49 There are three overriding challenges for urban planning: 1

2

3

Capacity is limited for designing and implementing comprehensive land-use planning in smaller cities. Initiatives that seek to extend risk reduction planning to smaller municipalities have begun to emerge, although there is still much to be done. In Kitale, a city of 163,000 people in western Kenya, collaboration between the NGO Practical Action, local government and community actors led to the development of a local development plan, including the construction of a footbridge. There are a growing number of local interventions such as this, but longer-term strengthening of local planning capacity is more difficult than the implementation of short-term needs planning (Practical Action, 2007). In large cities, many people are excluded from planning. It is estimated that in 2010 there will be 271 million urban slum dwellers in Africa (UNHABITAT, 2007). Slums are typically cramped, with industrial and residential land uses in close proximity (sometimes in the same building), and exposed to natural hazards. Egypt, South Africa and Tunisia are examples where national programmes for slum upgrading and service provision have led to an overall reduction in the growth rates of slums (UN-HABITAT, 2006). Disaster risk is lowered as people gain security of tenure and access to basic services in safe locations. Where hazards are too high, upgrading might be counterproductive and relocation becomes an option of last resort. Careful consultation with those to be rehoused and the community into which people will be moved is essential to minimize disruption of livelihoods and prevent social tension. Land-use planning inside cities is difficult to connect with wider ecological and environmental processes. This has special significance for natural hazard mitigation through processes such as the deforestation of hill slopes leading to landslides, the erosion of coastal wetlands increasing exposure to storm surges or competition for water or productive agricultural land undermining access to sustainable basic needs. There are few successful examples of this highly integrated approach, but there are many places where the large scale of planning might bring dividends.

Planners are often unable to keep up with mapping new settlements, let alone planning land use for them. Set against these pressures, innovative methods for reaching populations at risk are needed. Alternatives include facilitating community-led planning where plans are owned and researched by local communities. Such plans have limited legal standing but provide a planning mechanism for those left outside of the formal planning process. When technical support and oversight is provided by local government, such plans can enable communities to identify and monitor land use in hazardous locations or organize to regulate development, reduce risk and prepare for disaster. Integration of

50 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa satellite imagery, geographical positioning systems and other technology into participatory planning at the neighbourhood scale is now possible because of user-friendly platforms (participatory GIS: www.iapad.org/participatory_ gis.htm) and low-cost hardware.

Transport planning Transport planning can reduce risk to human health and life from road traffic for road users, neighbouring communities and the environment. In urban areas, hazard is directly generated from injuries sustained in accidents and from the health effects of pollution. More indirectly, all urban residents are exposed to risk associated with climate change with motor vehicle emissions contributing around 5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions – only a little less than all agricultural practices worldwide (UNDP, 2007). Transport planning therefore has a huge potential to contribute to security directly and through mitigating climate change (Bulkeley and Betsill, 2005). Transport planning that seeks to reduce the accumulation of risk in the city often meets with conflict from vested interests where the transport sector has economic and political influence. The motor car is presented by some as a symbol of modernity, but increasing injury and death rates, environmental degradation and the economic costs of congestion point to integrated public transport as a more efficient and less damaging basis for transport planning for cities in the 21st century (Simon, 1996). Good transport planning does not put the needs of pedestrians and cyclists second to those of motorized transport (Barter, 2001). Integrated planning that combines land use with transport is especially valuable because it can lower traffic hazard by reducing the number and length of journeys taken. Slum dwellers are often especially exposed to road traffic risk as settlements are established alongside major roadways (Hardoy et al, 2001). Reducing risk through combined planning has been successful in countries as diverse as Singapore, Costa Rica and Brazil (Sim et al, 2001; GRSP, no date). For Africa’s rapidly growing cities, this approach provides a key opportunity to build risk reduction into urban development. Transport planning is most effective when local road users participate. Pedestrians are unlikely to use walkways or underpasses if these are inconveniently located or are poorly maintained. There is also a great need to focus on small and medium-sized urban settlements that are expanding the most rapidly in Africa yet have the least-developed transport plans. This is true for reducing existing risk, for example through the separating of pedestrian walkways and bicycle lanes from motorized transport, and for planning risk out of cities in the future through integrated land-use and transport planning. Medium-sized cities (in the low millions of population) that are undergoing rapid population growth may experience the greatest benefits from integrated planning with the least cost (Dimitriou, 2006).

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 51

Critical infrastructure There are two types of critical infrastructure: networks (electricity, potable water and sanitation, telecommunications, transport networks) and fixed assets (health care, education, administration, security). Disruption in either kind of critical infrastructure makes it more difficult for people, neighbourhoods and cities to recover from an extreme event and can magnify the effects of a hazard impact. A localized hazard that damages critical infrastructure (for example, a hospital or communication network) can have an impact that spreads across the city. Each city has its own mixture of networks and assets. The limited critical infrastructure in small cities brings some security as impacts are less likely to spread from one system to another, but also produces more vulnerability as there are limited alternatives should one system or asset become damaged (for instance, perhaps only one hospital or water pumping station). Risk accumulates in cities where networks have been built over time through piecemeal development projects. It is not unusual to find city centres reliant on water and sanitation systems built in the colonial era, which are connected to an array of different subsystems provided from different development projects. This is complicated further by the partial privatization of water and other critical services. In an increasing number of cities, informal provision of services from water to policing also makes it challenging to coordinate the identification of network vulnerability and subsequent risk mitigation. There is a large technical literature on risk management for critical infrastructure and services. The majority concerns risk management procedures to be undertaken as part of good business practice. There has been relatively little work on linkages with the urban planning community (Robert et al, 2003). Progress is more advanced for protecting health and educational infrastructure as part of overall city planning. In public health facilities, simple procedures such as securing expensive equipment and backing up records to protect them from local hazards have proven very effective and could be copied (ISDR, 2008). A 2007 survey by the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) found that schools had begun to integrate disaster risk reduction into the school curriculum in Cape Verde, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, South Africa and Tanzania, but that no African country had yet successfully implemented a comprehensive plan to make school buildings hazard resilient (ISDR, 2007; Wisner, 2006).

Development regulation Building control With appropriate design features, even buildings exposed to flood, earthquake and windstorm can resist damage. Bursa (2004, p6) makes the economic case: ‘US$1 invested in construction saves US$40 if the building has to be rebuilt after an earthquake; US$1 invested in retrofitting saves US$8’. Where buildings do not resist damage, this indicates a failure of design and building control. Most

52 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa countries have building codes aimed at ensuring construction meets a minimum standard of disaster resilience. In some cases, codes are the legacy of a colonial period or simply imported from other countries. In both cases codes need revision. They must be relevant to the range of hazards faced by buildings today and in the future, with climate change taken into account. Codes also need to be appropriate for the economic and technical capacities of a country (ISDR, 2004). There is considerable technical knowledge to improve construction and a number of international initiatives aimed at transferring this knowledge. North African states are well integrated into this framework. Among other African states, Algeria, Egypt and Morocco are prominent in the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (see www.emi-megacities.org/), linked to the World Seismic Safety Initiative. This was initiated in 1997 to promote comprehensive citywide disaster management systems in large cities exposed to seismic hazard and has helped build institutional capacity such as Uganda’s Seismic Safety Association. The greatest challenge is not defining appropriate codes but their implementation. In the formal sector, perverse incentives make it more attractive for administrators, architects, builders, contractors and even house owners to circumvent construction standards. This has led some to suggest that regulation might be better undertaken by a contracted private sector organization that derives its revenue from enforcement and prosecution (Kreimer et al, 2003). The majority of those at risk from disaster in African cities live in informal settlements, largely beyond the reach of building regulation except perhaps for schools, health centres, sports stadiums and administrative buildings. These are important exceptions as these are buildings that protect the most vulnerable and can also act as shelters after disasters. That the majority of these buildings continue to be built below disaster-resistant standards is a primary factor in the accumulation and magnification of urban disaster risk.

Pollution control Capacity to regulate industrial pollution and hazardous waste varies widely across the region. Increasing rates of pollution have a health impact and require more expensive pollution monitoring and control technologies and institutional reform (McGranahan and Murray, 2003). Often increasing pollution is exacerbated by geography. For example, Harare in Zimbabwe lies in its own water catchment so that industrial effluent and untreated sewage flow into the city’s water reservoir, Lake Chivero. Regulating standards vary, with some countries falling below World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) water guidelines or, like Tanzania, maintaining temporary standards. Even where standards are in place, enforcement is hampered by a lack of personnel and equipment. In many Zambian towns only 20 per cent of sewage is treated (Tsiho, 2007). The use of nuclear power in South Africa has led to radioactive as

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 53 well as toxic pollution releases despite regulation. In 1991, the Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa caused a huge spill of 80,000–100,000 tonnes of caustic soda near the Hartbeesport dam, leading to massive fish deaths and the killing aquatic animals (Tsiho, 2007). Industrial pollution can be reduced through the application of cleaner production technology, or the addition of effluent capture and cleaning technology. A recent study in Nigeria has found that most firms complying with regulations employ the latter strategy (Adeoti, 2001). This study also found that firms’ compliance with regulation is not just an outcome of the regulatory framework but also of the characteristics of individual firms, including their technical capacity. Internationally owned firms were among those with the better environmental emissions records. Smaller firms were least likely to comply with regulations. Vehicle emissions are making a growing contribution to poor health and atmospheric pollution. Not only is the number of vehicles in African cities increasing but it includes many motorcycles with highly polluting two-stroke engines. Also poor maintenance of private and public mass transit vehicles magnifies air pollution. A study of 433 first-grade school children from the lowincome Alexandria township in Johannesburg found that 78 per cent of children had levels of lead in their blood exceeding international standards (Mathee and von Schirnding, 2003). This is likely to come from breathing vehicle emissions. In Asian cities where emissions have reached crisis levels, reforms and regulation have improved air quality. This provides a lesson that can be applied to the growing cities of Africa before such levels of pollution are reached.

Traffic regulation Regulation and education are both needed to change behaviour and improve road safety. Road safety campaigns can target defensive driving, the use of safety equipment including helmets and car safety belts, and safe road use for pedestrians. An example of such a campaign comes from South Africa, where 2500 school children participated in a pedestrian visibility campaign using reflective material on school bags (WHO, 2004). Driver impairment can also be enforced through regulation. Sources of impairment include alcohol, drugs, lack of sleep and distraction (such as talking to the drivers of public transport vehicles or drivers using mobile phones). Pressure from employers can lead to commercial drivers working for dangerously long periods combined with fast driving. In Kenya, on average, a public minibus or matatu driver works 14 hours a day every day of the week (Chitere and Kibual, 2006). Transport risk in Kenya has prompted progressive legislation but, as with many regulatory processes in risk management, vested interests have tried to derail the process of reform. In Kenya in October 2003, Legal Notice No. 161 was issued seeking to regulate the matatu sector by controlling speeding, requiring vehicles to have regular checks, requiring safety belt use and making

54 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa clear the legal responsibility of minibus drivers, conductors and owners in the event of an accident. The Notice challenged the working culture and economic advantages of the matatu sector. The Matatu Owners’ Association and Matatu Welfare Association opposed the legislation and organized a nationwide strike that paralysed the entire transport system in the country. This action resulted in legal interventions and a series of modifications to legislation and delayed enactment for almost a year. Despite this delay, accidents were reduced by 73 per cent in the first six months of implementation compared to the same time in the previous year (Chitere and Kibual, 2006). The enforcement of driving codes continues to be a challenge. Experience from South Africa suggests that partnerships between community groups and the police can help. Barriers to partnership exist on both sides, with accident victims often anticipating unfair police treatment. Drive Alive in South Africa was set up to help road crash survivors and has advised on road safety and worked with police to jointly lobby government for regulatory reform. Community groups can also be involved in identifying local accident hotspots, volunteering to act as traffic wardens and partner police in road traffic monitoring exercises (Aeron-Thomas, 2003).

Risk management Risk management is applied when development planning and regulation fail to prevent the accumulation of risk. Tasks include citywide and local initiatives aimed at reducing human vulnerability and environmental hazard.

Vulnerability and risk assessment One principal source of data is public health monitoring, which includes data on the incidence of public health risks associated with everyday hazards – diarrhoea, upper respiratory tract infections, animal bites, skin conditions, heat stroke, traffic injuries and so on. Such data sets, managed by ministries of health, are valuable because they tend to conform to WHO definitions of ill-health, have formal reporting mechanisms and are undertaken in most cities. Routine analysis is often restricted to monitoring population-wide data. Data are not routinely analysed using geographical information systems (GIS) to integrate environmental and socio-economic conditions with health standards for local populations. This scale of analysis is required to identify inequality and trends in environmental health that may be seasonal, linked to natural or technological environmental change, or changes in the social status of a local population. It is also expensive for centrally managed data sets to integrate hospital, health centre and primary health clinic records so that low-impact environmental health concerns (such as child diarrhoea that does not require emergency rehydration) are less likely to be included. Systematic citywide assessment of the vulnerability of physical infrastructure and housing to disaster risk is not common. For major construction

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 55 projects, including critical infrastructure and major commercial and public buildings, individual assessment of structural resilience is required for insurance purposes. But data on building resilience are not always reliably or promptly reported to development control sections of urban planning departments. Without a central database that is regularly updated to keep pace with urban growth and to reassess buildings over time, especially following hazard exposure, it is difficult to construct a citywide assessment of physical vulnerability. Insurance companies may have a better picture of physical vulnerability in major urban centres of Africa than municipal authorities. Munich Reinsurance has undertaken an analysis of the exposure of financial assets tied to physical infrastructure to large natural disasters in 50 large cities worldwide. Four African cities are included and ranked by value of assets exposed to risk: Cairo, exposed to earthquakes and flooding, is ranked 42nd; Alexandria, exposed to earthquakes, storms and tsunamis, is ranked 45th; Lagos, exposed to storms and flooding, is ranked 49th; and Abidjan, exposed to storms and flooding, is ranked 50th (Munich Re, 2004). The cities with most assets exposed are Tokyo, San Francisco and Los Angeles, reflecting the high concentration of wealth in these world cities. The vulnerability of economic systems to disaster impact has been assessed for agricultural economies in Africa, showing a magnifying effect for more complex economies (Benson and Clay, 2004). The vulnerability of urban economic systems and the potential for contagion effects for national and regional economies is yet to be assessed, although some individual studies have shown magnifier effects. In Mozambique, flooding in 1999–2000 destroyed roads linking Maputo to neighbouring towns and countries, damaging international as well as local trade (UN-HABITAT, 2007). The preceding discussion has focused on vulnerability and risk assessments undertaken primarily by government. For systematic data collection and analysis government coordination is essential. However, this work is complemented, and in cases where government institutions and capacity are limited it is replaced, by local vulnerability and risk assessments. Often initiated or assisted by local or international NGOs, these approaches are participatory and apply a range of methods from extensive questionnaire surveys to detailed life history or household livelihood analysis (Pelling, 2006). The focus is usually local and can include assessment of hazards (including social, economic and political as well as environmental), the vulnerability of people and property, and capacity to cope with risk. ProVention Consortium maintains an internet site dedicated to reporting on community vulnerability and risk assessment methodologies (www.provention consortium.org/?pageid=46). The site presents many varied methodologies including integrated hazards and vulnerability assessment. In one example, from Brickaville, Madagascar, Catholic Relief Services worked with local actors and government to undertake an integrated hazard and vulnerability assessment in

56 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa communities exposed to floods and cyclones. Risk analysis was undertaken and led to canal clearing and the planning of a dam to mitigate flood hazard; it is also argued that capacity was increased in the community because locals took on management of funds as well as supporting mitigation works through a village committee (Catholic Relief Services, 2004).

Building local resilience: Vulnerability reduction and hazard mitigation Working with local actors to build resilience enables risk reduction work to be tailored to the varied needs of those living with risk. Capacity-building is most effective when undertaken within a wider framework of social development. Government- or municipality-sponsored social safety nets, the upgrading of slum, social housing or community development programming have great potential for bringing multiple benefits including risk reduction. Gaining access to land title provides security and stimulates investment by the urban poor (UNHABITAT, 2007). Work in sub-Saharan Africa has shown that living conditions are most improved when tenure is coupled with investment in critical infrastructure (Gulyani and Bassett, 2007). Social safety nets are most effective at alleviating vulnerability when targeting social groups such as the elderly or households affected by HIV/AIDS (Nkurunziza and Rakodi, 2005), while also encompassing those at risk from or suffering losses caused by natural or technological hazards. Government- or agency-led social development projects that include local actors in planning and implementation can build social as well as physical capacity. In Maputo, Mozambique, UN-HABITAT is using inclusive strategies for slum upgrading that have led to the integration of flood risk reduction and a recognition that flood risk is a problem of development and not one merely for humanitarian relief. In this case, careful management of conflict resolution and transparent decision-making have made for an efficient process avoiding the costs of field surveys and also saving time (Spaliviero, 2006). Where government support for local capacity-building is insufficient, local actors and civil society can still make a positive contribution, but it is difficult for local pockets of resilience to be replicated or scaled up across the city without the resources and coordinating capacity of government. Risk has proximate as well as root causes, and both can be addressed by local civil society action. Proximate causes of vulnerability include danger coming from the location or unsafe construction of houses – especially those in slum and squatter settlements that are not regulated or where landlords are unwilling to invest in maintenance. Resilience can be built through strengthening livelihoods and local governance. Livelihood opportunities are enhanced by urban microcredit and by skills training. Microcredit remains predominantly a rural method for alleviating poverty but there is much scope for urban programmes. Building local governance rests on the confidence and knowledge of community leaders. Both can be supported through partnerships with NGOs or government that share responsibility for decision-making.

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 57 Proximate causes of hazard include danger coming from land-use change, perhaps linked to local livelihood or survival mechanisms, such as the deforestation of hill slopes, the dangerous location of small-scale industrial or manufacturing plants in residential areas, or local road conditions that encourage dangerous driving. Resilience and capacity can be built through local actions and often form the core of programmes or projects that can also build local confidence, leadership skills and skills training so that generating resilience to reduce vulnerability and mitigate hazard can be achieved simultaneously. Root causes of risk include danger generated by legislative bias, government policy and failures in development regulation. Resilience can be built and is demonstrated when local actors use legislation to force change. South Durban, South Africa is a highly polluted area where 200,000 vulnerable and disadvantaged residents live next to heavy industry. In 2002, successful legal action was taken by the community with support from the environmental justice NGO Groundwork, preventing the development of a paper incinerator by Mondi, a paper manufacturing company, that would have produced sulphur dioxide emissions in excess of WHO and national standards (UN-HABITAT, 2007).

Risk response Early warning Providing early warning in cities is particularly difficult because of the multihazard context and because rapid growth in some parts of cities changes land uses and generates new hazards and vulnerable populations. These challenges can partly be met when centralized and local warning systems support one another, providing complementary information. There are, however, few examples of such systems worldwide or in the cities of Africa. Indeed, few cities have dedicated early warning systems that go beyond the everyday hazards associated with public health. Most state-controlled early warning systems are oriented towards national security and large disasters. This works well for major urban areas, which are important for the national economy and political stability, but they serve small and medium urban centres less well. These have to rely on translating national warnings for local use. Thus, one challenge that prevents early warning from getting to those at risk is the mismatch between national and local information needs. Also, as the human tragedy of the Asian tsunami showed, even where warning systems may exist, they are only useful if they can go ‘the last mile’ and reach slum dwellers, urban-based fishers who may be at sea, people in the rurban peripheries of a city, and do so at any time of day or night. Recognition of the vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes and the high human losses that can result have stimulated much research and development in city-level early warning systems for geophysical hazards. Collaboration between national and city researchers and practitioners has been high, for example through the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative, which makes a significant

58 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa contribution to urban security for cities exposed to earthquake risk in North Africa in particular. Less work has been undertaken on early warning for hydrometeorological hazards associated with climate change or on small disasters. Food emergency warning systems such as FEWS are usually focused on rural populations. Urban centres have many advantages over rural areas for early warning that suggest such challenges can be met. In cities, information networks are dense, providing those at risk with the potential to draw information from multiple sources. Nevertheless, to date, too often there are no reliable or timely warnings or reports on disasters as they unfold and this leads to panic that may magnify the loss. For example, in Lagos, Nigeria, more than 1000 people were killed in 2002, most by drowning in a canal, while fleeing in panic from an explosion in an army barrack. Survivors recall a lack of information contributing to general panic about the cause of the explosions (BBC, 2003). Urban centres can also provide an opportunity for information from local observation and government agencies to be brought together. This requires capacity-building and clear lines of communication between local and central teams. A success story comes from Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo. In 2002, a volcanic lava flow destroyed 40 per cent of property despite having been predicted by a local academic geologist. The absence of a municipal or national early warning system meant his information was not acted upon. In response, a Community Preparedness for Volcano Hazards Programme (2002–2004) was undertaken to strengthen community understanding of risk, information networks and the disaster response capacity of government and local actors (UN-HABITAT, 2007). In 2005, ISDR found that the weakest elements of warning systems concern warning dissemination and preparedness to act. Warnings may fail to reach those who must take action, and may not be understood or address their concerns. Root causes of these problems appear to be inadequate political commitment, weak coordination among the various actors, and lack of public awareness and public participation in the development and operation of early warning systems (ISDR, 2006).

Emergency response and reconstruction planning It is difficult to build institutions that can operate during emergencies and in post-disaster recovery. In municipal and national government as well as in civil society organizations, day-to-day concerns take precedence so that even where organizational structures are designed, they may not function well when needed. As with early warning, post-disaster communication and coordination seem to work best when they are built onto existing institutional relationships that are in use every day. The extent to which risk reduction is built into reconstruction depends on pre-disaster planning and post-disaster coordination. In large disasters, external

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 59 agencies from the national government or international humanitarian community can overwhelm local organizations. Local development plans can easily be ignored. Indeed there are many cases where reconstruction has been counterdevelopmental, generating inequality as low-income (but often high-value) residential land is redeveloped for commercial or high-income residential use. Social tensions can rise when survivors are relocated into existing communities. Relocation should be a last resort. Success measured in improved livelihood opportunities and access to critical infrastructure is uncommon.

CONCLUSIONS There are many ways in which urban disaster risk can be reduced. This chapter has organized intervention around ten themes associated with four areas of professional practice: development planning, development regulation, risk management and emergency management. Only the last two of these are core areas for risk managers and even here there is a great contribution to be made through partnership with agencies and individuals experienced in development planning and regulation. The technical options outlined in this chapter are available for any municipal government, developmental or humanitarian NGO or community organization to work with. This provides a considerable toolkit. But in parallel with learning new tools for disaster risk reduction it is important that advocacy work at the political and policy levels in government and among local leaders is successful in demonstrating the social and economic advantages of acting to reduce risk. It is in bringing the kinds of practical experience and tools presented here together with political advocacy and policy development that cities will realize their potential to reduce risk while providing livelihoods for sustainable development. The following chapters provide examples of local innovations moving towards this goal.

REFERENCES Adeoti, J. (2001) ‘Technology investment in pollution control in sub-Saharan Africa: The case of the Nigerian manufacturing industry’, unpublished PhD thesis, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, Maastricht Aeron-Thomas, A. (2003) Community Traffic Policing Scoping Study, TRL Report PR/INT/265/2003, TRL, London Barter, P. (2001) Linkages between Transport and Housing for the Urban Poor: Policy Implications and Alternatives, UN-HABITAT Discussion Paper, www.unhabitat.org/categories.asp?catid=373 accessed 29 July 2008 BBC (2003) ‘Nigeria remembers deadly barracks blast’, BBC Online, January, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/2698081.stm accessed 29 July 2008 Benson, C. and Clay, E. J. (2004) Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters, Disaster Risk Management Series No 4, World Bank, Washington DC

60 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa Bulkeley, H. and Betsill, M. (2005) Cities and Climate Change: Urban Sustainability and Global Environmental Governance, Routledge, London Bursa, M. (2004) ‘Policies and practices in Turkey’, paper presented at an International Seminar on Policies and Practices in the Management of Seismic Risks in Urban Areas, 16–18 November, Tehran, www.gignos.ch/reps/Tehran.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Catholic Relief Services (2004) Plan d’Action Communautaire pour la Réduction des Risques des Catastrophes, CRS,Tananarive, www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/default/pdfs/ CRA/Madagascar.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Chitere, P. O. and Kibual, T. N. (2006) ‘Efforts to improve road safety in Kenya: Achievements and limitations of reforms in the matatu industry’, Discussion Paper DP/081/2006, Institute of Policy Analysis and Research, Nairobi, Kenya, www4.worldbank.org/afr/ssatp/Resources/CountryDocuments/Road-Safety-KenyaIPAR.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Dimitriou, H. T. (2006) ‘Towards a generic sustainable urban transport strategy for middlesized cities in Asia: Lessons from Ningbo, Kanpur and Solo’, Habitat International, vol 30, no 4, pp1082–1099 GRSP (Global Road Safety Partnership) (no date) Moving Ahead: Emerging Lessons, GRSP, Switzerland, www.grsproadsafety.org/ accessed 29 July 2008 Gulyani, S. and Bassett, E. M. (2007) ‘Retrieving the baby from the bathwater: Slum upgrading in sub-Saharan Africa’, Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, vol 25, no 4, pp486–515 Hardoy, J. E., Mitlin, D. and Satterthwaite, D. (2001) Environmental Problems in an Urbanizing World, Earthscan, London ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) (2004) Living with Risk: A Review of Global Disaster Reduction Initiatives, ISDR, Geneva, www.unisdr.org/eng/about_isdr/bdlwr-2004-eng.htm accessed 29 July 2008 ISDR (2005) ‘Algeria: Disaster risk reduction discussed at national land use planning meeting’, ISDR Informs 6, December, www.unisdr.org/africa accessed 29 July 2008 ISDR (2006) Global Survey of Early Warning Systems, ISDR, Geneva, www.unisdr.org/ppew/info-resources/ewc3/Global-Survey-of-Early-WarningSystems.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 ISDR (2007) Towards a Culture of Prevention: Disaster Reduction Begins at School, ISDR, Geneva, www.unisdr.org/eng/public_aware/world_camp/2006-2007/good-practices-en.htm accessed 29 July 2008 ISDR (2008) 2008–2009 World Disaster Reduction Campaign, ISRD, Geneva, www.unisdr.org/ eng/public_aware/world_camp/2008-2009/pdf/wdrc-2007-2008-about.pdf accessed on 29 July 2008 Kauffmann, C. and Pérard, E. (2007) ‘Stocktaking of the water and sanitation sector and private sector involvement in selected African countries’, Background Note for the Regional Roundtable on Strengthening Investment Climate Assessment and Reform in NEPAD Countries, www.oecd.org/dataoecd/17/8/39679099.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Kirkpatrick, C., Parker, D., and Zhang, Y.-F. (2006) ‘An empirical analysis of state and private-sector provision of water services in Africa’, The World Bank Economic Review, vol 20, no 1, pp143–163 Kreimer, A., Arnold, M. and Carlin, A. (2003) Building Safer Cities: The Future of Disaster Risk, Disaster Risk Management Series No 3, World Bank, Washington DC La Trobe, S. and Faleiro, J. (2007) Why Advocate for Disaster Risk Reduction, Tearfund, London, www.tearfund.org/webdocs/Website/Campaigning/Policy%20and%20research/Why% 20DRR%20A5.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Mathee, A. and von Schirnding, Y. (2003) ‘Air quality and health in Greater Johannesburg’, in G. McGranahan and F. Murray (eds) Air Pollution and Health in Rapidly Developing Countries, Earthscan, London

Reducing Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 61 McGranahan, G. and Murray, F. (eds) (2003) Air Pollution and Health in Rapidly Developing Countries, Earthscan, London Munich Re (2004) Megacities: Megarisks, Trends and Challenges for Insurance and Risk Management, Munich Re, Munich, www.munichre.com/publications/302-04271_en.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Nkurunziza, E. and Rakodi, C. (2005) Urban Families Under Pressure: Conceptual and Methodological Issues in the Study of Poverty, HIV/AIDS and Livelihood Strategies, Working Paper No 1, International Development Department, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, www.idd.bham.ac.uk/research/Projects/HIV_AIDS/urban% 20household%20livelihood%20and%20HIV%20amd%20AIDS.%20Working% 20paper%201.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Pelling, M. (2003) The Vulnerability of Cities: Social Resilience and Natural Disaster, Earthscan, London Pelling, M. (2006) ‘Measuring vulnerability to urban natural disaster risk’, Open House International, vol 31, no 1, pp125–132 Pelling, M. (2008) ‘The vulnerability of cities to disasters and climate change: A conceptual introduction’, in H. G. Brauch (ed) Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security, Springer, London Pelling, M. and Holloway, A. (2006) Legislation for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction, Tearfund, London, www.tearfund.org/webdocs/website/Campaigning/ Policy%20and%20research/DRR%20legislation.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Practical Action (2007) Building Effective Partnerships, Practical Action, Rugby, http://practicalaction.org/?id=ia3_partnerships accessed 29 July 2008 Robert, B., Sabourin, J. P., Glaus, M., Petit, F. and Senay, M. H. (2003) ‘New structural approach for the study of domino effects between life support networks’, in A. Kreimer, M. Arnold and A. Carlin (eds) Building Safer Cities: The Future of Disaster Risk, Disaster Risk Management Series No 3, World Bank, Washington DC Sim, L. L., Malone-Lee, L. C. and Chin, K. H. L. (2001) ‘Integrating land use and transport planning to reduce work-related travel: A case study of Tampines Regional Centre in Singapore’, Habitat International, vol 25, pp399–414 Simon, D. (1996) Transport and Development in the Third World, Routledge, London Simone, A. (2002) Principles and Realities of Urban Governance in Africa, UN-HABITAT, Nairobi, www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/2112_6752_Principles%20and% 20Realities%20of%20Urban%20Gov%20in%20Africa.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Spaliviero, M. (2006) ‘Integrating slum upgrading and vulnerability reduction in Mozambique’, Open House International, vol 31, no 1, pp106–115 Tsiho, S. (2007) ‘Water pollution in southern Africa’, Gibbs Magazine, www.gibbsmagazine.com/Water%20Pollution%20in%20Southern%20Africahas%20Got ten%20Bad.htm accessed 29 July 2008 UN-HABITAT (2006) Urban Safety: A Review, a Collective Challenge for Sustainable Human Settlements in Africa, UN-HABITAT, Nairobi UN-HABITAT (2007) Global Report on Human Settlements, 2007: Enhancing Urban Safety and Security, Earthscan, London UNDP (2004) Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development: A Global Report, UNDP, New York, www.undp.org/cpr/whats_new/rdr_english.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 UNDP (2007) Human Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting Climate Change, Human Solidarity in a Divided World, Palgrave, Hampshire, UK WHO (2004) World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention, WHO, Geneva, www.who.int/ violence_injury_prevention/publications/road_traffic/world_report/en/index.html accessed 29 July 2008

62 Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa Wisner, B. (2006) Let Our Children Teach Us: A Review of the Role of Education and Knowledge in Disaster Risk Reduction, ISDR and Action Aid, Geneva and London, www.unisdr.org/eng/partner-netw/knowledge-education/docs/Let-our-ChildrenTeach-Us.pdf accessed 31 July 2008

Part II

Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

4

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring: Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana

Jacob Songsore, J. S. Nabila, Yvon Yangyuoru, Sebastian Avle, E. K. Bosque-Hamilton, Paulina E. Amponsah and Osman Alhassan

INTRODUCTION Large natural disasters have far less impact on human well-being than everyday disaster risks associated with environmental health inadequacies in poor cities and in especially their poor, unserviced and disadvantaged neighbourhoods. It is often argued that these inadequacies are perhaps the most important avoidable environmental cause of ill-health (Songsore et al, 2005). Songsore et al (1997) argue that global improvement in local environments could avert the loss of almost 80 million ‘disability free’ years of human life each year – more than the feasible improvement attributable to all other identified environmental measures combined (see also World Bank, 1993; McGranahan et al, 1996; UNCHS, 1996; WHO, 1997; World Resources Institute/UNEP/UNDP/World Bank, 1998). As Table 4.1 shows, sub-Saharan Africa with a population of 640 million lost 353.3 million disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2000. According to the World Health Organization (WHO, 1997, p232): Each DALY indicates the loss of a year of healthy life; that is, time lived with a disability or time lost through premature death. The number of

66 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Table 4.1 Burden of disease, injury and the top five diseases in sub-Saharan Africa by disability adjusted life years, 1990 and 2000 Disease/ Condition

Deaths

1. AIDS 0.2 2. Malaria 0.7 3. Acute respiratory 1.0 infections 4. Perinatal conditions 0.5 5. Diarrhoea 1.0 6. Top 5 subtotal (1 to 5) 3.4 7. Other communicable diseases 1.9 8. Communicable Diseases( 6+7) 5.3 9. Non-communicable diseases 1.9 10. Injuries 1.0 Total (8 to 10)

8.2

1990 DALY

DALY (%)

Deaths

2000 DALY

DALY (%)

8.4 27.1 30.2

2.8 9.2 10.2

2.4 1.0 1.1

72.7 35.7 30.4

20.6 10.1 8.6

19.3 32.1

6.5 10.9

0.6 0.7

22.2 21.5

6.3 6.1

117.1

39.7

5.1

182.5

51.7

77.5

26.2

2.4

76.0

21.5

194.6

65.9

7.5

258.5

73.2

55.4 45.3

18.8 15.4

2.3 0.8

65.3 29.5

18.5 8.4

295.3

100.0

10.6

353.3

100.0

Note: The top five diseases are ranked in terms of DALY lost in 2000. Totals have been rounded up. Absolute death in DALY figures are in millions Source: Murray and Lopez (1996); WHO (2001)

DALYs in different regions provides a guide to the relative distribution of disease burden: the higher the DALYs, the greater the burden. The number of DALYs lost per capita in the region remains the highest in the world (Songsore, 2004). In 2000, this was equivalent to more than half a DALY lost per capita. This means half a year of healthy life is lost per capita (Doumani, 2002; see also Smith et al, 1999). At this scale of loss, health burdens have a detrimental impact on society and the economy as well as for individuals and their households. As Table 4.1 shows, communicable diseases alone accounted for 73 per cent of the burden of disease in 2000, up from about 66 per cent in 1990. This increase is largely explained by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Despite this, overall, environment-related diseases such as respiratory infection, malaria, diarrhoea, intestinal worms, plus the childhood cluster (of vaccine-preventable diseases) continue to exceed losses by HIV/AIDS. On the ground both sources of morbidity interact to exacerbate ill-health and increase the likelihood of early mortality among the ill. Injuries, which accounted for 15 per cent of the disease burden in 1990 declined to about 8 per cent in 2000. These injuries relate to road traffic accidents, wars, urban violence, domestic violence, natural disasters and occupational injuries (McGranahan et al, 1999). The observed reduction is possibly associated with a period of reduced levels of armed conflict for the region.

AMA

3km

Airport

Gulf of Guinea

TEMA DISTRICT

DANGBE WEST DISTRICT

Figure 4.1 Residential areas, Greater Accra Metropolitan Area

Source: Jacob Songsore with the assistance of Ben Doe and Doris Tetteh of the Accra Sustainable Cities Programme and CERSGIS

CENTRAL REGION

GA DISTRICT

EASTERN REGION

68 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa The Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) is a low-income city in a heavily indebted poor country at the first stage of the urban environmental transition (McGranahan et al, 1996). The greatest environmental health threat comes from unmet basic needs – sanitation, potable water, solid waste management and drainage, smoky kitchens, crowding and shelter poverty. Limited industrial development and per capita consumption means that GAMA does not as yet suffer from urban concentrations of sulphur dioxide and contributes little in terms of emission of ozone-depleting or greenhouse gases (Songsore, 2003a). As a result, the major health problems in the city ‘still remain preventable and communicable diseases, diseases attributable to poor environmental sanitation, ignorance and poverty’ (Songsore and McGranahan, 1993, p11). Chronic diseases, such as hypertension, are also beginning to climb up the ladder of disease burdens. In addition to the burden of everyday risk associated with environmental health, small disasters are frequently reported and there is risk of catastrophic disaster from flooding and earthquake hazards. However, to date the greatest threat to life comes from everyday hazards. GAMA includes the Accra Metropolitan Area (AMA), Tema Municipal Area (TMA), and Ga West District (GWD) and Ga East District (GED), which was known until recently as the Ga District (GD). These collectively constitute one sprawling urban agglomeration (see Figure 4.1). With a total population in 1994 of 1.3 million and a 2000 Census population figure of about 2.7 million, it ranks as the largest metropolitan area in Ghana (APDP/UNDP/UNCHS, 1992; Songsore, 1997). The current estimate puts the population of GAMA at between 3 million and 4 million. The current condition, in part, has been as a result of deliberate policies pursued by the colonial and post-colonial state. As was the general practice in all British colonies in Africa, urban planning practice enshrined a policy of separate development for African and European residential areas. These were often separated from each other by a cordon sanitaire of open spaces provided by parks, race courses and railway lines (Drakakis-Smith, 1987; Larbi, 1996). In Accra, the colonial capital, land-use planning was restricted to state lands under European residential occupation. By contrast, the African town was largely devoid of social services and formal planning, producing organic and high-density settlement patterns. Planning interventions in indigenous areas were often dictated by expediency, especially fears of epidemic disease outbreaks that would spread to engulf European as well as African areas. For example, primary health measures were only extended to African quarters in Accra after outbreaks of plague and yellow fever in Accra and the colony (Songsore, 2003b). With a few exceptions, the acquisition of land and provision of housing for low-income groups was left to the market, while subsidized rental bungalow housing was provided for the colonial bureaucracy. This was in sharp contrast to British policy at home where municipal or council housing was provided for the poor (Ospina, 1987; Songsore, 2003b; Songsore et al, 2004).

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 69 Post-colonial planning and development control of GAMA followed the colonial model. Though barriers to residential segregation were removed, the fundamental principles, laws and procedures of planning remained the same (Larbi, 1996). The main exception was in the adjoining port city of Tema, which was comprehensively planned and developed by the Nkrumah regime. This chapter presents the methods and findings of a study into the environmental health burdens faced in GAMA and their social, spatial and seasonal distributions.

METHODS A geographical information system (GIS) database was developed, extending a 2001 study (Songsore et al, 2005) to include indicators for small and large disaster hazards as well as the everyday hazards of public health. Data were first collected through rapid assessment of everyday hazards and disaster risks for the entire metropolis, with a more in-depth community self-assessment survey in the low-income neighbourhood of Nima. The output of this phase provided the input for GIS mapping and its analysis (Songsore et al, 1998, 2008). The study brought together indicators for everyday risks, local and catastrophic disasters, which coexist along a risk continuum. A rapid assessment survey covered indicators for nine environmental problems (water, sanitation, pests, sullage/drainage, food contamination, hygiene, solid waste, housing problems and indoor/outdoor air pollution); morbidity data (the top ten most important health problems in each residential area disaggregated by gender and age); and disasters (earthquakes, floods, HIV/AIDS and other unspecified disasters). HIV/AIDS was classified as a disaster in this study because of its catastrophic impact on the economy and social fabric when allowed to spread unchecked in any community (Dorrington et al, 2001). Once identified, attribute data were integrated into GIS data layers originally defined in the 2001 study to allow combined and comparative analysis, including an analysis of seasonality (which is not discussed in this chapter).

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF RISKS AND HAZARDS

Everyday risks Seasonal weather patterns combine with longer-term cycles in flood risk and seismicity frequency to produce complex patterns of hazard over time. These patterns are being made less predictable by the local consequences of rapid urbanization and climate change. Weather conditions and cycles affect the transmission of infectious diseases, especially those transmitted by pathogens that

70 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa spend part of their life cycle outside the human body (Kovats et al, 2003). As Drasar et al (1981 p102), argue: The main climatic factors determining the transmission of infections are rainfall and temperature. They affect disease by way of breeding of vectors, the survival of pathogenic organisms, and the proliferation rate of microbes in the environment. The human host also plays a large part. Malnutrition may influence the susceptibility to infection, while seasonal variations in human behaviour may also have an effect. It is this complex of relationships involving the physical environment, micro-organisms, vectors and human hosts, which justifies the notion of seasonal ecology. Throughout the year the diseases with the highest incidence levels in GAMA include malaria, which is insect-borne, and diarrhoea, cholera and typhoid, which are either of bacterial or viral origin. Respiratory diseases, which are also common, are also mainly of viral origin. Infectious skin diseases of viral, fungal, bacterial and parasitic genesis also comprise up to 90 per cent of total skin disease (Porter, 1981). The incidence of these diseases is associated with specific environmental conditions, which can be considered hazards, contributing to risk when combined with behavioural, physiological and socio-economic vulnerability factors. Malaria is the most dramatic illness in its impact since it accounts for between 30 and 40 per cent of the cases reported at outpatient facilities on a yearly basis. Anopheles mosquitoes, the vectors of the parasite that causes malaria, breed more prolifically during the rainy season resulting in increased health risk. However, year-round breeding is made possible, largely because of the microecological niches found in most residential areas of GAMA and associated with poor drainage caused by choked gutters and drains, and inadequate solid waste and sullage disposal (Benneh et al, 1993). Thus failures in urban environmental health planning and individual behaviour (constrained by social structures such as income and education) combine to generate environmental risk (Chinery, 1984; Benneh et al, 1993). Where rainfall is highly seasonal with breeding sites remaining dry, malaria will be a seasonal health risk, but where breeding sites remain permanent because of poor drainage, such as in GAMA, malaria becomes holoendemic – independent of seasonality (Blacker, 1991). In GAMA, the onset of the rains is often associated with the occurrence of cholera epidemics, with increased incidence of typhoid and diarrhoeal diseases (which are generally endemic). The diarrhoeal condition is a syndrome with many causal factors and with varying seasonal patterns combining with poor nutritional conditions of the population and environmental factors. However, no direct links exist between rainfall and diarrhoeal disease except maybe indirectly through water pollution, vector proliferation and inadequate hygiene (Drasar et al, 1981).

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 71 Respiratory diseases can be fatal for children in the metropolis and incidence is influenced by environmental conditions. For reasons not well known, measles and pneumonia appear to be more prevalent in many parts of Africa during the dry season (Goetz, 1981; Sutton, 1981; Tomkins, 1981; Blacker, 1991). Respiratory infections including colds, influenza, bronchitis and pneumonia are more prevalent in cold conditions when people huddle together for warmth allowing diseases to spread, or use smoky fires for warmth that irritate the respiratory system (Blacker, 1991). In a study of measles cases in Bamako, Mali, Fargues and Nassour (1987) found seasonal variations in mortality with a sharp peak in April, which in Mali is the hottest time of the year and at the end of the dry season. Gaegbe (1987) also found that in Yaounde deaths from measles were at a maximum in March, again the hottest month of the year since it comes at the end of the dry season and the beginning of the short rains (Blacker, 1991). Other potentially fatal or debilitating diseases with strong environmental triggers are meningococcal meningitis and skin conditions. Meningococcal meningitis (MCM) is an infectious disease clearly driven by environmental conditions (Sultan et al, 2005) endemic in Sahelian West Africa. Outbreaks often start in February and disappear by late May. Although limited to the biogeographical Sahelo-Sudanian band, through migration it can sometimes spread as far south as the GAMA. This belt is characterized by a long dry season during which the epidemic occurs. This period is dominated by the dry north-easterly winds called the Harmattan that damage the mucus membranes, allowing easier transmission of the bacteria causing MCM (Sultan et al, 2005). Epidemics disappear with the onset of seasonal rains. In the tropics, up to 90 per cent of skin diseases are viral, fungal, bacterial or parasitic in origin (Porter, 1981), associated with crowding, poor hygiene and inadequate water for washing. It is therefore not surprising that skin diseases sometimes rank among the top ten causes of ill-health in GAMA. In one study in the Gambia the overall prevalence rate of skin diseases was 34 per cent in the rainy season, dropping to 26 per cent in the dry season, with bacterial and fungal diseases showing larger inter-seasonal variation while viral and parasitic skin infections showed little variation (Porter, 1977). Where conditions are hot and humid, as is often the case in GAMA, fungal infections thrive.

Disaster risks Flood hazard is more frequent during the rainy season but flash flooding can occur at any time. During the rainy season, between May to June or August, flooding of large areas of GAMA has become a predictable seasonal routine. This is accentuated because of the flat low-lying terrain, inadequate drainage facilities and haphazard location of buildings along watercourses, together with the choking of drains with sediment and solid waste and concretization which encourages rapid runoff (Songsore et al, 2005). At the time of the 2001 survey

72 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa for example, the Daily Graphic reported that flood events for June were the worst since the 4 July 1995 disaster, with 91 mm of rainfall leading to the deaths of 12 persons and the displacement of over 100 families. Many houses and industrial buildings were also submerged under a deluge of water (Songsore et al, 2005). GAMA is also situated in Ghana’s earthquake-prone coastal belt. The provisional seismic risk map of the country places GAMA in Zone 4, classified as the highest risk area. The city sits on highly fractured bedrock; many faults have been mapped, indicating tectonic activity and reinforcing evidence of earthquake proneness (Ayetey, 1988).

Looking to the future: Global environmental change While it is crucial to try to understand the seasonality of infectious diseases and its variation, it is equally important for the researcher to try to conjecture the effects of long-term climate change on the accumulation or reduction of everyday hazards and disaster risk and the implications for human health and the occurrence of infectious diseases. Climate change affects seasonal disease patterns through ‘the lengthening of transmission seasons and the crossing of environmental and demographic thresholds that underlie seasonal outbreaks’ (Pascual and Dobson, 2005, p18). Knowledge of seasonal drivers and how these are affected by long-term climate change can be of critical importance in the understanding of human health in the future. Evidence of climate scenarios developed for climate change impact assessment in Ghana indicates trends towards rising temperature and declining rainfall for all ecological zones in the country (EPA, 2000a; Minia, 2004). The projected effects of climate change and ozone depletion are global, with uncertain regional and local impacts. ‘Major effects are likely to be increased temperatures and frequency of extreme weather events, along with a rise in sea level’ (McGranahan et al, 1999, p171). For example, a preliminary assessment of the impacts of sea-level rise on a global scale indicates that about ‘two-thirds of the total land area potentially at risk of flooding and shoreline recession in Ghana lies within the East Coast’ (EPA, 2000b, pv). The health threats of climate change include possible malnutrition from drought, spread of infectious diseases as a result of the spread of disease vectors advantaged by climate change, direct loss of life from sea-level rise and extreme weather events (McGranahan et al, 1999; EPA, 2000a; Ahern et al, 2005). Just as climate change is likely to impact the occurrence of everyday risks, so it is likely to affect extreme events such as flood disaster risk, especially in coastal cities such as GAMA where increased risk is associated with changes in precipitation and sea-level rise. In parallel with climate change, the depletion of stratospheric ozone, which absorbs harmful ultraviolet radiation, could also increase skin cancer, eye damage and immune system suppression (McGranahan et al, 1999). Extreme weather events associated with global climate change

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 73 coupled with rising sea level could trigger much greater impacts of storm surges. Increasing sea level will also make the salination of groundwater more likely. The Ghanaian Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has identified sea-level rise as a compounding factor with earthquake risk, increasing risk from liquefaction as soil moisture content is increased, with Accra being most at risk (EPA, 2000b, pv). GAMA is therefore seriously at risk from global climate change.

SOME ILLUSTRATIVE RESULTS OF THE STUDY This section draws on results from the 2005 study (see Songsore et al, 2008) and analyses environmental burdens and health correlates, flood disaster events, HIV/AIDS and earthquake threats along with comment on the influence of climate and seasonality on these elements of urban environmental risk.

Environmental burdens in GAMA The data have been analysed to identify areas of vulnerability and in need of priority attention to reduce risk by development planners. The study illustrates the environmental burdens and spatial variations in levels of risk within GAMA for nine environmental problem areas associated with: inadequate water supply, inadequate sanitation, pest prevalence, inadequate sullage/drainage provision, food contamination, inadequate hygiene, inadequate solid waste disposal, housing stress and indoor air pollution. It also indicates the aggregate environmental burdens or risks for each residential area as a composite index (for details see, Songsore et al, 2005). This was calculated using the Delphi technique in which 200 points were allocated in a weighted fashion across the nine environmental problem areas and within each problem area expert informants were asked to reallocate points to produce relative weights. The total scores for each environmental problem area were expressed as percentages of the maximum score for each residential area. A similar procedure was used to express the aggregate score for all the nine environmental problem areas combined within each residential area. The higher the percentage score, the more severe the risk. These are expressed as quintiles of environmental burdens (1–20 per cent, 21–40 per cent, 41–60 per cent, 61–80 per cent and 81–100 per cent). Figure 4.2 shows the quintiles of aggregate environmental burdens or risks. As indicated in the analytical procedures above, this indicator reflects the combined or cumulative risks from the nine environmental problem areas and the associated risks suffered by each community. In that sense, it is a shorthand measure of the most environmentally deprived communities in GAMA. Those residential areas showing most relative environmental deprivation lie in the fifth quintile. Overall, AMA, which is the core of GAMA, tops the list of most deprived communities. In AMA, about 12 communities lie within the fifth quintile and

GA DISTRICT

EASTERN REGION

AMA

Gulf of Guinea

Airport

TEMA DISTRICT

1 Local

2

3

4

5

DANGBE WEST DISTRICT

Figure 4.2 Quintiles of aggregate environmental burden for residential areas, GAMA

Source: Rapid assessment survey 2005

CENTRAL REGION

3km

x

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 75 experience absolute deprivation in the nine environmental domains. These communities include Gbegbeyise, Sabon Zongo, Jamestown, Korle Dudor, Kotobabi, Nungua, La and North Teshie. In Tema, the only community with higher risk is Tema New Town. The two most affected communities in GD are Oblogo and Ofankor Village. These communities (along with another 22) recorded major deprivation. Only about 19 communities had excellent environmental quality standards, i.e. those that lie in the first quintile of environmental burdens that suffered the least risks. Another 36 recorded good environmental quality standards i.e. those that lie in the second quintile of environmental burdens. This is largely because GAMA is only partially planned, while high/medium-density low-income indigenous areas, high-density low-income migrant areas and the rural fringe have been excluded from any meaningful planning and delivery of environmental services. Even where services are planned, lack of financial and human capacity in metropolitan government limits service provision. Failures in provision are chronic following long decades of economic decline and structural adjustment.

Social inequality in urban environmental and health burdens This section analyses the link between the environmental characteristics of residential areas and the health conditions of households. It uses morbidity indicators gathered from the rapid assessment. The overall morbidity profile supports the argument that in low-income cities facing a constellation of environmental burdens at home and in the neighbourhood, the major preventable health risks relate to communicable diseases (see Songsore et al, 2005). Prominent diseases were ranked by incidence for each neighbourhood (with 1st as the most frequent to 10th ranked as least frequent). Data were derived from city-level experts, local pharmacies and local clinic records for January to March 2005, and from focus group discussions with local residents, including men and women. Two indicators were derived from these data. First, the environmental fraction of the burden of disease. This was calculated by expressing the total number of environment-related diseases listed from the three methods identified above as a percentage of the total number of listed diseases. Second, an aggregate weighted ranking of diseases. This was calculated by pooling together all disease rankings for the three groups within each residential area, and re-ranking the results. Figure 4.3 shows the geographical variation in the environmental fraction of the burden of disease. The entire metropolitan region shows a high environmental fraction, indicating that environmental conditions are a major factor in ill-health. This affects both the wealthy and the poor alike. Nowhere in GAMA is the environmental fraction of the burden of disease below 50 per cent. This is consistent with data from the Ministry of Health showing that the top ten most important health problems reported at outpatient facilities are primarily environment related.

Source: Rapid assessment survey 2005

CENTRAL REGION

3km

Gulf of Guinea

AMA

Airport

TEMA DISTRICT

91–100%

81–90

71–80

61–70

50–60

<50%

DANGBE WEST DISTRICT

Figure 4.3 Environmental fraction of the burden of disease, GAMA

GA DISRICT

EASTERN REGION

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 77 This finding reinforces the view that public health concerns should be a primary focus for urban development. More than this though, it supports the main premise of this book: that environmental hazard – from everyday to catastrophic – needs to be seen as an interacting whole. That this in turn shapes the distribution of development burdens in the city is reflected in the dominance of mortality and morbidity losses among the poor, despite rich and poor neighbourhoods in GAMA being exposed to the burdens of environmental hazard. In GAMA, the local consequences of global environmental change including climate change are yet to have been mainstreamed into urban public health planning. Climate change remains cast as a problem of over-consumption and a policy area for rich countries. In other words, the focus of policy discourse and action remains on mitigation. Adapting to the environmental health consequences of a changing urban climate is not yet on the agenda.

Flood, earthquake and HIV/AIDS disaster events In this section the incidence and severity of small and large natural disasters are discussed in order to put the everyday disaster of environmental health into perspective. Out of the ten major flood events recorded for GAMA from 2001 to 2005, seven occurred during the major rainy season (March–June), two events occurred during the dry season (January), which is unusual, and one during the minor rainy season (September). These events show the severity of flooding from rivers, streams and drainage channels that can occur within GAMA. As shown in Table 4.2, floods have claimed several lives and destroyed public infrastructure and private property. The picture is one in which small localized floods occur every year within residential, commercial and industrial areas situated within flood-prone zones. This condition is exacerbated by poor land-use planning, the flouting of zoning regulations, inadequate drainage infrastructure and the dumping of garbage within drainage channels. Yet another disaster threat is from earthquakes. Records of damaging earthquakes date as far back as 1615. Notable are the 1636, 1862, 1906 and 1939 earthquakes (Junner, 1941; Quaah, 1980; Ambraseys and Adams, 1986). The epicentres of most of these events are located in GAMA. The maximum recorded intensity for historic events was high at 6.9 on the Richter scale in 1939, indicating widespread damage to even well-built structures. Moderate earthquakes struck the country in 1964 (4.5) and 1969 (4.7). The 1939 earthquake was the most recent event to cause great damage in GAMA. Seventeen people were killed and many others were injured. The greatest damage in Accra was in areas underlain by shale and interbedded shales and sandstones. The damage was more prominent where these rocks were covered by soils, clay or sand. These geological formations are the most unstable in the event of an earthquake (Harris, 1970). Since this time, the population and size of

78 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Table 4.2 Flood incidence in GAMA Date

District or Area

Season

Extent of Flood Severity or Damage

June 2001

Tetteh-Quarshie Interchange

Major wet season

Sep 2001

Western Accra

Minor wet season

Jan 2002

Odawna, Abossey Okai, Madina, Kaneshie, Graphic road, Awoshie and the Spintex road Kwame Nkrumah Circle, Odawna, Abossey Okai, Sodom and Gomorrah, Agbogbloshie, and other low-lying areas Kwame Nkrumah Circle, Odorkor, Sakama, Otorjor

Dry season

Violent storms and rains, described by the meteorologists as the heaviest since July 4, 1995 hit the metropolis. Six people were killed, two bridges caved in, one at Secaps hotel near Tetteh-Quarshie interchange and the other on the Spintex road. Western Accra was flooded from an early downpour obstructing movement of commuters, especially those routes linking the city centre. A three-hour downpour affected low-lying suburbs. Flood waters from the Odaw river filled living rooms and open compounds. In some areas choked drains caused flooding.

June 2002

June 2002

Jan 2003

June 2003

June 2003 June 2004,

March 2005

Major wet season

The floods caused traffic congestion. Business in affected areas came to a standstill as workers and pedestrians could not commute or had a hard time commuting.

Major wet season

Floods disrupted businesses and hampered residents commuting to the central business district and other destinations. The military rescued distressed residents with dinghies at Otorjor. Flooding in South Industrial Area, Odorkor and Awoshie. Commuting was disrupted.

South Industrial Dry Area, Odorkor, season Awoshie Otorjor and Major wet Exhibition at season Dansoman, Banana-Inn, West Sowutuom, Asylum Down, Adabraka, Alajo, Avenor, Kwame Nkrumah Crcle, Anyaa, Fan Milk near Ablekuma and Graphic road Teshie Major wet season Asylum Down, Major wet Kwame Nkrumah season Circle Asylum Down, Major wet Obetsebi Lamptey- season mortuary road

Knee-deep floods along watercourses. In Tema, affected communities included the naval base, Ashiaman underpass, Timber market and coastal estates on Spintex road.

Floods destroyed houses because of inadequate drainage in the area. Heavy rains washed away roads. A road linking the Kwame Nkrumah Avenue was also washed away. Major flooding occurred at Asylum Down. Most affected areas were streets along the Odaw River; the rains also washed away the Obetsebi Lamptey-mortuary road.

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 79 the city have grown greatly with poverty, while inadequate governance of construction indicating susceptibility as well as exposure has also grown. There have been several earth tremors with magnitudes ranging from 1.0 to 4.0 on the Richter scale in recent years (Amponsah, 2002, 2003). The historical record shows that more than 200 earth tremors have been recorded in Ghana, with the majority having epicentres in or close to GAMA. Another potential major disaster unfolding in GAMA is the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Although this does not have an environmental root cause there is no doubt that one of the greatest challenges to health and human security in Ghana is HIV/AIDS. The challenge of HIV/AIDS impacts on personal and household resilience to environmental hazards and on the capacity of the health services to cope. In recognition of this, the government, through the Ministry of Health, has placed HIV/AIDS as number one on the list of diseases prioritized for eradication (Ministry of Health, 2003). Recent reports indicate that the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS is gradually declining countrywide. The current prevalence rate of the pandemic in the country (2005) is 2.7 per cent. It has dropped, first from 3.6 per cent in 2003 to 3.1 per cent in 2004, and then to 2.7 per cent in 2005 (NACP, 2006; Daily Graphic, 9 May 2006, No 149732). The 2005 study showed that most cases of HIV/AIDS were located in the eastern corridors of GAMA, mainly in TMA. Both East and West Ashaiman recorded the highest number of cases (1901). Between 200 and 300 cases were reported in Tema Community 1 and Tema New Town. The proximity of these communities to Tema Harbour is notable, suggesting that the pattern of exposure and incidence of HIV/AIDS is linked to the large numbers of travelling workers from outside and within the country, and to access to the sex industry in these low-income areas. The highest incidence of HIV/AIDS was recorded in Ashaiman, a district with a disproportionately high number of transient workers and a hotspot for the commercial sex industry. Communities with between 101–200 cases include Tema Community 2, Nungua, La, Osu, Adabraka and Mamprobi. These are largely high-density indigenous areas where crowding can be a risk factor associated statistically with HIV/AIDS infection. Other residential areas with the same number of cases were Nima, Mamobi, Madina and Abeka. Most of these are migrant communities with large numbers of people of relatively low socio-economic status. The pattern of concentration of most HIV/AIDS cases in high-density low-income areas in GAMA suggests that poverty and lack of knowledge are the underlying factors to risky sexual behaviour that predispose the population to risk from exposure to HIV/AIDS. This section has used quantitative data to reinforce the intuitive association between environmental risk, ill-health, poverty and inadequate access to basic services. This association has been shown to hold for small and large flood and earthquake events and also for the disaster that is HIV/AIDS. Exposure to vulnerability and losses from these disasters are disproportionately born by the poor who are forced to live in conditions that are environmentally risky.

80 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Exclusion from the market and a lack of capacity in government and civil society to meet the basic needs for environmental security suggest that imaginative policy is needed if the environmental burdens carried by the poor and subsequent health risks and loss are not to be worsened as urbanization intensifies and the local impacts of climate change are felt.

Emerging trends This section compares data collected from the dry season 2005 study with the 2001 study. The data show that between 2001 and 2005, social inequality and lack of adequate environmental services grew in depth and breath. However, data do not show a clear distinction in everyday environmental and health burdens between the two periods. The same cannot be said of seasonal disaster events such as flooding, which are concentrated in the wet seasons. The longterm trends of climate change, crowding of urban activities and poor land-use planning can only serve to heighten risk. Poverty and lack of collective action to meet basic needs combined with crowding and informal construction exacerbate the possible effects of earthquakes, sea surges, floods and epidemics in the absence of meaningful long-term policy change. In terms of spatial trends we recognize the overall impact of young migrants moving into the city, often with junior secondary school education but lacking the skills for employment in the highly competitive labour market. These migrants have spontaneously colonized spaces for street vending and for shack settlements. All these, together with a natural increase in the urban population, especially in low-income high-density areas in conditions of growing poverty, pose enormous problems for solid waste management, sanitation and shelter poverty. This is the flip side of the injustice perpetrated against food crop producers and the rather depressed living conditions in rural areas generally with the implementation of over 20 years of neoliberal structural adjustment, which has ruined the agricultural economy outside the cocoa sector. As citizens with minimum opportunities, young rural people are voting with their feet by migrating to the centre of wealth creation, crowding into unsafe urban habitats as the competition for urban space between different land uses intensifies. Squatter settlements such as Sodom and Gomorrah, Abuja and those studded all along the railway line and unsafe lagoon outlets in Tema are very much in evidence and on the increase. These settlements are in areas most prone to flooding and other disasters and with high environmental health burdens. High-income development has also included areas at risk of disaster. A case in point is the location of plush residences downstream of the Weija Dam, creating a disaster waiting to happen. These areas are flooded whenever the spillway of the dam is opened to free excess water downstream. In the event of an earthquake leading to a rupture of the dam, these wealthy properties will simply be washed out into the sea. Recently, residents of Weija have been in tense negotiations with the Ghana Water Company following the earmarking of 2000 houses

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 81 for demolition, as authorities claim they have been illegally sited in the Weija Dam area (Donkor and Okine, 2007). More positively, improvements in environmental quality were found in GD. These improvements were under development during the 2001 study and the completion of these newly developed communities is reflected in improved risk indicators in the 2005 study. Residents, who are relatively wealthy middle-income earners, have replaced the squatters in the buildings formerly under construction in 2001. Quality of life has improved in this area as a result of much better access to services. An outcome of this has been the displacement of the squatter community by middle-income households so that while the health indicators for the area have improved, social inequality continues as the squatters relocate to new frontiers of residential construction. This flags a weakness in GIS-based methodologies and emphasizes the importance of local knowledge in analysing trends. The contribution that development planning can make to managing environmental health is self-evident in the overall environmental quality of Tema and the planned areas of Accra. Recourse to free markets therefore does not mean the abandonment of land-use planning, regulation, zoning controls and above all the provision of low-income housing that can be sustained. However, as the rural population becomes increasingly excluded from national development, so will they crowd around the wealth of urban areas, generating new challenges for management and governance as demand for environmental services outstrips supply (Songsore, 2003a). The decline in the prevalence of cerebro-spinal meningitis, yellow fever, measles and other childhood killer diseases such as whooping cough, poliomyelitis, diphtheria and tetanus have been the result of successful public health campaigns and childhood vaccinations and growth monitoring programmes. This underlines the potential for positive health outcomes with a determined effort by the Ghana Health Service and support from the World Health Organization and other multilateral and bilateral organizations. Public health interventions can help eradicate or reduce infections, some of which have seasonal cycles of occurrence.

POLICY ISSUES The observations made in the 2001 study of a need to focus on urban primary health care interventions are reinforced by the 2005 study. These include infrastructure provision and public health education and promotion. It is hoped that the combined influence of debt cancellation, an international and national focus on water and sanitation issues and the Millennium Development Goals articulated in Ghana’s Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy 2 will lead to a much greater focus on public health, not only in GAMA but in the country at large. This study also brings attention to the potential for climate change impacts to shift the temporality and spatial distribution of environmental health hazards.

82 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa There was limited popular awareness on the causes of floods, and hardly any awareness of earthquake risk and coping strategies among respondents in this study, an area for public education about risks and the relationships between everyday, local and catastrophic disaster risks and losses and human casualties, and between urban development, individual action and the social distribution of environmental risk. An important element of this agenda is to undertake rigorous epidemiological work in order to inform the public of risk levels and options for risk reduction in various communities. Cities do not exist in isolation, and at the national level, the Ministry of Health has pledged to completely eradicate malaria, which it argues causes total economic costs to the national economy of US$772.4 million per annum. This agenda will have a great benefit for the poor and less poor in GAMA that are exposed to this risk. The strategy includes ongoing programmes such as the distribution of insecticide-treated nets and promotion of intermittent treatment of malaria among pregnant women, as well as the proper case management of those with malaria. In addition new programmes are being proposed to scale up the control of malaria as well as tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS with funds from the Global Fund and other development partners. Much earlier health interventions show that success is possible – Ghana is polio-free and also has successfully reduced measles cases in the past four years to below 500, with no reported deaths in Ghana in 2006 (GNA, 2007).

REFERENCES Ahern, M., Kovats, R. S., Wilkinson, P., Few, R. and Matthies, F. (2005) ‘Global health impacts of floods: Epidemiologic evidence’, Epidemiologic Reviews, vol 27, pp36–46 Ambraseys, N. N. and Adams, R. D., (1986) ‘Seismicity of West Africa’, Annales Geophysicae, vol 4, no 6, pp679–702 Amponsah, P. E. (2002) ‘Seismic activity in relation to fault systems in southern Ghana’, Journal of African Earth Sciences, vol 35, pp227–234 Amponsah, P. E. (2003) ‘Seismic activity in Ghana: The past, present and future’, Annals of Geophysics, vol 47, no 2/3, April/June, pp539–543 APDP/UNDP/UNCHS (1992) Strategic Plan for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Draft Report, Vol.1: Context Report, Ministry of Local Government, Accra Ayetey, J. K. (1988) ‘Earthquake site response study of Accra Area, Ghana’, Bulletin, International Association of Engineering Geology, no 38, pp45–49 Benneh, G., Songsore, J., Nabila, J. S., Amuzu, A. T., Tutu, K. A., Yangyuoru, Y. and McGranahan, G. (1993) Environmental Problems and the Urban Household in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) – Ghana, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm Blacker, J. G. C. (1991) ‘Infant and child mortality: Development, environment and custom’, in R. G. Feachem and D. T. Jamison (eds) Disease and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank, Oxford University Press, Oxford Chinery, W. A. (1984) ‘Effects of ecological changes on malaria vectors Anopheles funestus and the Anopheles gambiae complex of mosquitoes in Accra, Ghana’, Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol 87, pp75–81

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 83 Donkor, M. and Okine C. B. (2007) ‘Weija residents, GWCL in a Tango’, www.graphicghana.com Dorrington, R., Bourne, D., Bradshaw, D., Laubscher, R. and Timaeus, I. M. (2001) The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Adult Mortality in South Africa, Technical Report, Burden of Disease Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa Doumani, F. M. (2002) Environmental Health in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Road Map (Draft), World Bank Africa Region, Washington DC Drasar, B. S., Tomkins, A. M. and Feachem, R. G. (1981) ‘Introduction’, in R. Chambers, R. Longhurst and A. Pacey (eds) Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty, Frances Pinter, London Drakakis-Smith, D. (1987) The Third World City, Methuen, London EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) (2000a) Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment on Water Resources in Ghana, EPA, Accra EPA (2000b) Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Zones, EPA, Accra Fargues, P. and Nassour, O. (1987) ‘Les saisons de la mortalite urbaine en Afrique’, paper presented at the IUSSP seminar on mortality and society in sub-Saharan Africa, 19–23 October, Yaounde, Cameroon Gaegbe, T. V. (1987) ‘Saisonnalite et causes de deces infantiles a Yaounde’, paper presented at the seminar on mortality and society in sub-Saharan Africa, 19–23 October, Yaounde, Cameroon GNA (Ghana News Agency) (2007) News archive, www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/ accessed 20 November 2007 Goetz, J. P. (1981) ‘A study of childhood disease in Tanzania’, in R. Chambers, R. Longhurst and A. Pacey (eds) Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty, Frances Pinter, London, Harris, N. (1970) ‘Geology of the Devonian rocks of Accra with special reference to subsurface investigations’, Ghana Geological Survey Bulletin, No 38, pp48–55 Junner, N. R. (1941) ‘The Accra earthquake of 22nd June, 1939’, Gold Coast Geological Survey, Bulletin, no 13, pp3–41 Kovats, R. S., Bouma, M. J., Hajat, S., Worrall, E. and Haines, A. (2003) ‘El Niño and Health’, The Lancet, http://image.thelancet.com/extras/02art5336web.pdf accessed 20 May 2003 Larbi, W. O. (1996) ‘Spatial planning and urban fragmentation in Accra’, Third World Planning Review, vol 18, no 2, pp193–215 McGranahan, G., Songsore, J. and Kjellen, M. (1996) ‘Sustainability, poverty and urban environmental transitions’, in C. Pugh (ed) Sustainability, the Environment and Urbanization, Earthscan, London McGranahan, G., Lewin, S., Fransen, T., Hunt, C., Kjellen, M., Pretty, J., Stephens, C. and Virgin, I. (1999) Environmental Change and Human Health in Countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm Minia, Z. (2004) Climate Scenarios Developed for Climate Change Impacts Assessment in Ghana, report prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency under the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Programme (NCCSAP), Phase 2, Part 1, Accra Ministry of Health (2003) 5-Year Programme of Work, 2002–2006: Partnership for Health: Bridging the Inequality Gap, The Second Health Sector, Ministry of Health, Government of Ghana, Accra Murray, C. and Lopez, A. (1996) The Global Burden of Disease, Global Burden of Disease and Injuries Series, WHO and the World Bank, Harvard School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA NACP (National AIDS Control Programme) (2006) HIV Sentinel Survey Report 2005, Ghana Health Service, Accra Ospina, J. (1987) Housing Ourselves, Hilary Shipman, London

84 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Pascual, M. and Dobson, A. (2005) ‘Seasonal patterns of infectious diseases’, PLoS Medicine, vol 2, no 1, January, available at http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=getdocument&doi=10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0020005 accessed 1 October 2008 Porter, M. J. (1977) ‘An epidemiological approach to skin diseases in the tropics’, Tropical Doctor, vol 7, pp59–66 Porter, M. J. (1981) ‘Infectious skin diseases’, in R. Chambers, R. Longhurst and A. Pacey (eds) Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty, Frances Pinter, London Quaah, A. O. (1980) ‘Microseismicity, past seismic activity and seismic risk in southern Ghana’, unpublished PhD thesis, University of London, London Songsore, J. and McGranahan, G. (1993) ‘Environment, wealth and health: Towards an analysis of intra-urban differentials within the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana’, Environment and Urbanization, vol 5, no 2, pp10–34 Songsore, J. (1997) ‘Strategies pertaining to urban environmental health problems in Africa: The case of Accra’, report prepared for ECA, University of Ghana, Accra Songsore, J. (2003a) Regional Development in Ghana: The Theory and The Reality, Ghana Universities Press, Accra Songsore, J. (2003b) ‘The urban housing crisis in Ghana: Capital, the state versus the people’, Ghana Social Science Journal (New Series), vol 2, no 1, pp1–31 Songsore, J. (2004) Urbanization and Health in Africa: Exploring the Interconnections between Poverty, Inequality and the Burden of Disease, Ghana Universities Press, Accra Smith, K. R., Corvalan, C. F. and Kjellstom, T. (1999) ‘How much global ill-health is attributable to environmental Factors?’, Epidemiology, vol 10, no 5, pp573–584 Songsore, J., McGranahan, G. and Kjellen, M. (1997) ‘An environmental health indicator profile for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) – Ghana’, paper presented at Workshop on Public Participation and Urban Environmental Health Services, A Concerted Action, 23–26 September, Bamako, Mali Songsore, J., Nabila, J. S., Amuzu, A. T., Tutu, K. A., Yangyuoru, Y., McGranahan, G. and Kjellen, M. (1998) Proxy Indicators for Rapid Assessment of Environmental Health Status of Residential Areas: The Case of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA), Ghana, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm Songsore, J., McGranahan, G. and Kjellen, M. (2004) ‘Tenure, housing and environmental management among families in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) of Ghana’, Research Review, Supplement, vol 15, pp69–83 Songsore, J., Nabila, J. S., Yangyuoru, Y., Amoah E., Bosque-Hamilton, E. K., Etsibah, K. K., Gustafsson, J.-E. and Jacks, G. (2005) State of Environmental Health Report of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA), 2001, Ghana Universities Press, Accra Songsore, J., Nabila, J. S., Yangyuoru, Y., Avle, S., Bosque-Hamilton, E. K., Amponsah, P. A., Alhassan, O. and Satterthwaite, D. (2008) Environmental Health Watch and Disaster Monitoring in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA), 2005, Ghana Universities Press, Accra (forthcoming) Sultan, B., Labadi, K., Guegan, J. F. and Janicot, S. (2005) ‘Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in West Africa’, PLoS Medicine, www.plosmedicine.org, vol 2, no 1e6, pp0043–0049 Sutton, R. N. P. (1981) ‘Respiratory diseases’, in R. Chambers, R. Longhurst and A. Pacey (eds) Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty, Frances Pinter, London Tomkins, A. (1981) ‘Seasonal health problems in the Zaria Region’, in R. Chambers, R. Longhurst and A. Pacey (eds) Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty, Frances Pinter, London UNCHS (United Nations Centre for Human Settlements) (1996) An Urbanizing World: Global Report on Human Settlements 1996, Oxford University Press, Oxford

Integrated Disaster Risk and Environmental Health Monitoring 85 WHO (World Health Organization) (1997) Health and Environment in Sustainable Development: Five Years after the Earth Summit, Executive Summary, WHO/EHG/97.12, World Health Organization, Geneva WHO (2001) The World Health Report 2001: Mental Health: New Understanding New Hope, WHO, Geneva World Bank (1993) World Development Report: Investing in Health, Oxford University Press, New York World Resources Institute/UNEP/UNDP/World Bank (1998) World Resources 1998–99: A Guide to the Global Environment, Oxford University Press, Oxford

5

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard: Kisii and Kisumu, Kenya

Andre Yitambe, James Okello, C. M. Ooko Nguka, Caroline Ochieng and Ana Peña del Valle

INTRODUCTION WHO (2007) estimates 1.2 million people are killed in road traffic accidents each year, more than the annual average global mortality for any medium- or largescale natural or technological disaster type. Some 90 per cent of these deaths occur in middle- and low-income countries with the highest mortality rates at 28 per 100,000 from Africa (Commission for Global Road Safety, 2006). These data do not include those whose health is destroyed by air pollution. Compared to other African nations, Kenya has a reasonably high proportion of vehicles per head of population – 11 vehicles for every 1000 persons, compared with 2 in Ethiopia and 5 in Uganda (UN-HABITAT, 2007), making Kenya a strategically important country in which to study the impacts of and social responses to transport risk. Road traffic accidents are a public health problem, both in developing and developed countries of the world. They are the leading cause of injury worldwide (Murray and Lopez, 1996), ahead of respiratory infections, tuberculosis, war, diarrhoeal diseases and HIV/AIDS as a cause of incapacitation and as a public health concern. Road traffic accidents in Kenya compound pressure on development and quality of life exerted by other everyday, small and large disaster risks. All are made worse by rapid and unplanned urbanization, high population densities and poor infrastructure (Murray and Lopez, 1996).

88 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa This chapter begins by exploring the linkages between risk accumulation and disaster in urban areas, and then goes on to consider the status of vulnerability in Kenya. Finally we explore the detail of people’s perceptions and policy responses to road traffic accidents based on an action research project in two medium-sized towns in western Kenya: Kisii and Kisumu.

URBANIZATION IN KENYA Kenya has witnessed a rapid rate of urbanization (about 6 per cent per annum) since independence in 1963. Independence guaranteed freedom of movement, which spurred high rates of rural–urban migration. Against rapid urban growth, the country has registered deterioration in institutional and physical infrastructure. As a result, Kenyan urban centres are characterized by expansive informal settlements, poor water and sanitation infrastructure and services (Obudho, 1997; Odhiambo and Manda, 2003). Also, structural adjustment in the 1990s ushered in increasing urban poverty, a situation that threatens to heighten in future. Currently, over 60 per cent of Kenyans live below the national poverty live. Urbanization in Kenya is explained in large measure by the growth pole theory. Further, the urban development policies in the country are founded on the theory. Kenya’s urban hierarchy is characterized with one metropole (Nairobi city) together with a limited number of major urban centres (Mombasa, Kisumu, Eldoret, Nakuru and Thika). The various strategies used by the government to Table 5.1 Growth of some of the urban centres, 1969–1999 Urban centre Nairobi Mombasa Kisumu Nakuru Eldoret Thika Machakos Kitale Meru Kericho Kisii Malindi Karatina Nyeri Naivasha Kakamega Kitui Bungoma Kangundo

1969

1979

509,286 383,452 32,431 47,151 18,196 18,387 6312 11,573 4475 10,144 6080 10,757 2436 10,004 6920 6244 3071 4401 1540

827,775 341,148 152,643 92,851 50,503 41,324 84,320 72,049 29,661 35,753 32,025 -

Source: CBS (1970, 1981, 1991 and 2001)

1989 1,324,570 461,753 192,733 163,927 111,882 57,603 116,293 56,218 94,947 48,511 44,149 34,047 5554 91,258 34,519 58,862 9,305 26,805 10,880

1999 2,143,254 665,018 322,734 231,262 197,449 106,707 143,274 86,282 126,427 93,213 65,235 118,428 126,337 101,238 158,678 74,115 106,873 73,048 179,952

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard 89 Table 5.2 Growth of urban centres, 1948–1999 Population class Over 100,000 20,000–99,999 10,000–19,999 5000–9999 2000–4999 100–1999 Total

1948

1962

1969

1979

1989

1999

1 1 2 3 10 – 17

2 2 3 11 16 – 34

2 3 7 11 25 – 47

3 13 11 22 42 – 91

6 21 19 32 61 65 139

20 82 18 23 51 82 276

Source: CBS (1970, 1981, 1991 and 2001)

catalyse development have largely failed. Therefore, there is need to rethink urban development strategies to arrest the inevitable crises that are likely to ensue following policy failures and strategies (Mireri, 2006). Set against these policy failures, Kenya’s urbanization rates increase, with urban centres accounting for 7.8 and 27 per cent of the population in 1962 and 1999 respectively, as shown in Table 5.1. It is evident that the country has witnessed a major structural change in urban development during the last 50 years. For example, there were 34 urban centres in 1962 compared to 91 in 1979. The country witnessed a very high rate of urbanization between 1989 and 1999. During that period, the number of urban centres rose from 139 to 276 (see Table 5.2). The decline in the number of smaller urban centres may be explained in part by the perceived better opportunities that the larger urban centres offer, for example infrastructure and services, employment and market. The larger urban centres increased in number compared with the smaller urban centres (with population less than 10,000). Theoretically, within the framework of the ranksize rule it is expected that the number of urban centres should increase with the decrease in the size of urban centres. The Kenyan scenario, where the smaller urban centres declined in number during the 1989–1999 period, is indicative of structural failure in our urban development in which few large urban centres dominate the country’s urban system. In just three decades, the urban population has increased by about 250 per cent (see Table 5.3). Table 5.3 Growth of urban centres by actual population size, 1962–1999 Size of centre

1962

100,000 523,079 20,000–99,999 61,707 10,000–19,999 44,005 5000–9999 69,862 2000–4999 49,002 Total 749,651 % of national total 7.8

1969 756,359 79,582 685 71,396 81,886 989,908 9.9

Source: CBS (1970, 1981, 1991 and 2001)

1979 1,321,566 568,099 149,756 154,181 122,094 2,315,696 15.1

1989 2,371,158 822,971 257,775 232,259 194,554 3,878,697 18.0

1999 3,316,603 3,852,778 259,564 154,187 170,380 7,753,512 27.0

90 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa The three largest urban centres account for 40 per cent of the urban population according to the 1999 National Population Census (with Nairobi city, Mombasa and Kisumu municipalities accounting for 28, 8 and 4 per cent respectively). However, these numbers have not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in investment in urban institutional and physical infrastructure and service delivery, including in transport. As a result, the urban centres have been exposed to deteriorating and inadequate urban infrastructure and environmental services. This state of affairs may not be blamed on the urbanization process per se, but the inability of urban planning and development authorities to cater for basic needs of the increasing population (Mireri, 2006). Growth centre policy has been part of the national development plan of Kenya since the 1970s. First reflected in the national development plan of 1970–1974, this strategy aimed at promoting development of small- and medium-size urban centres and redirecting urban development away from Nairobi city and Mombasa municipality. The government intended to invest in infrastructure of the designated growth centres to make them attractive for investment and human settlement. The growth centres would them promote development of their hinterlands and absorb rural–urban migrants and alleviate congestion in Nairobi city and promote regional development. Implementation has been phased. For example, the initial phase of growth centre policy covered the following centres: Kisumu, Kakamega, Nakuru, Eldoret, Nyeri, Thika and Embu, while the second phase included Meru, Bungoma, Kericho and Kisii. However, the growth centres have not prevented rapid growth in the urban core because of the excessive number of designated centres (lack of appropriate data on the urban centres and the hinterlands made it impossible to develop effective selection criteria), lack of financial and technical resources, poorly coordinated implementation efforts and weak and or non-existent decentralization policies.

DISASTERS IN KENYA Historically, policy development in Kenya has been a top-down process. Disaster management in Kenya has not been viewed as an integral part of central development planning. Management has been reactive and ad hoc. It was only after the November–December 1997 El Niño floods in Kenya that the National Disaster Operation Centre (NDOC) was set up. According to the first draft of the First National Water Resources Management Strategy, the El Niño-induced floods of 1997–1998 caused public property damage worth US$151.4 million. In June 1999, the government of Kenya in collaboration with the United Nations Disaster Management Unit was mandated to prepare disaster management strategies. The overall goal of the National Disaster Management Policy is to establish and maintain an efficient, effective and coordinated system for managing disasters in order to minimize losses and resulting disruptions of

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard 91 Table 5.4 Chronology of recent disasters in Kenya Year

Type of disaster

Area of coverage

Number of people affected

1971, 1975, 1977, 1980 1982 1982 1983–1984 1984–2001

Drought

Widespread

More than 150, 000 in total

Floods Fire Drought HIV/AIDS

1985 1990 1994 1995–1996 1997–1998 August 1998 1999–2000 March 2003 May 2003 2006

Floods Fire Ferry accident Drought El Niño floods Bomb blast Drought Floods Bomb blast Collapse of buildings Fire

Nyanza Nairobi Widespread Widespread and continuing Nairobi – Western Lamu Mtongwe Widespread Widespread Nairobi Widespread Budalangi Mombasa Building collapse at Nyamakima in Nairobi Fire at Barot Agency at Libra House

4000 10,000 200,000 2.2 million dead by 2001, 700 daily mortality as of 2001 10,000 20 dead 270 dead Up to 1.41 million on food aid Up to 1.5 million on food aid 214 dead and 5600 injured 4.4 million on food aid 47 dead and 60,000 displaced 12 dead and several injured 16 people dead and over 200 buried alive and or injured 10 dead and property worth millions destroyed

2006

Source: Shauri (2006)

population, economy and the environment. Table 5.4 shows the chronology of recent disasters in Kenya. The disaster management policy recognizes the importance of effective coordination and communication at all levels. It also recognizes the need to strengthen linkages with local development plans and poverty reduction strategy programmes. It recognizes the role of communities and promotes community consultations and participation in disaster mitigation, preparedness, prevention, response and recovery. The need for research and information dissemination and implementation of research findings is also recognized. Since the policy promotes regional linkages between disaster management and other institutions, its strategies for the prevention and mitigation of flood disaster, for instance, include development of policies on settlement in floodprone areas, improvement of catchment conservation and protection, development of infrastructure design parameters and regulations, and development of flood control infrastructure. The policy’s strategies on flood preparedness include data collection and management, public awareness, insurance, early warning, and training and capacity-building for appropriate response (Mango et al, 2007). All of these are areas of investment that are underserved for reducing risk from road traffic accidents.

92 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

Trends in road traffic accidents, 1998–2006 Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are an everyday hazard in urban areas. Among the most vulnerable are young men who dominate road use, but also school children. Pedestrians and cyclists are most at risk and tend to be poorer road users as the choosing of means of transport depends on income. This can be demonstrated by the use of bicycle taxis called boda-boda in Kisumu and Kakamega in western Kenya. People who use this means of transport are at high risk from RTAs. In 1998, 62 per cent of all reported crashes involved public transport vehicles, especially matatus (privately operated minibuses, the most common form of mass transport) (Odero, 2004). Annual fatal accident rates can reach 3000 (Odero et al, 2003), and the most recent year for which records exist, 2006, recorded 1900 fatal road accidents (UN-HABITAT, 2007). In addition, RTAs constitute the most costly health problem for Kenya, with an estimated cost of approximately US$76 million for the country’s struggling economy (Lacey, 2004), representing 2–5 per cent of the country’s gross national product (GNP) (Nyantulya and Muli-Musiime, 2001; Odero, 2004). In 2003, the Kenyan government issued the Traffic Amendment Act (Government of Kenya, 2004), this included regulations for road safety measures, such as compulsory use of seatbelts and fitted speed governors to reduce the increasing rates in RTAs. Despite this, in 2006, a substantial upward trend in the number of RTAs was observed (see Figure 5.1), indicating a lack of public awareness and police enforcement of the Act. 2000 1800

1769

1715

1600

Number of RTAs

1400 1265

1200 1000

1011 798

800

815 681

600 400 200 0 1998

1999

2001

2003

2004

Year

Source: EM-DAT (2007)

Figure 5.1 RTAs in Kenya, 1998–2006

2005

2006

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard 93

Social hazards These hazards are associated with poverty and inequality, and generally deteriorated living conditions, which lead to crime, civil unrest and sometimes terror campaigns or violent demonstrations. In Kisumu, the recent post-election unrest following controversial elections in December 2007 led to urban violence (Obmati, 2008). Some 250,000 Kenyans have been forced to leave their homes as a result (Dunkel, 2008). Kenya has also experienced terrorist incidents including the bombing of the Norfolk Hotel in 1981, the American embassy in 1998 and the Paradise Hotel in 2003 in Mombasa.

CASE STUDY: RTAS IN WESTERN KENYA Background This project examined stakeholder perceptions of the causes of RTAs in Kisumu and Kisii districts, western Kenya. In both settlements, surveys were undertaken with a range of road users. An action-learning approach was taken where two public health officers were included in the project team. This also provided a route for gaining access to the policy community.

Kisumu Kisumu City is one of the oldest towns in Kenya and lies at the head of the railway from Mombasa. The city is situated on the low-lying Kano plains by Lake Victoria and suffers floods during rainy seasons. It is the third largest town in Kenya but has a comparable population to Kisii, estimated at 504,359, with an annual population increase of 7 per cent (CBS, 2004). Kisumu is well integrated into national trade and transport networks, not only through the railway but also by a major road to Nairobi, about 400km away. These roads carry very heavy traffic and are designed to meet this requirement. The roads enter the municipality as single carriageways and cause congestion and traffic jams near the municipal market. The city also has all the transport-related civic infrastructure, including an airfield, railway facilities, a port and all roads, tracks and paths. Most of the roads in the city lack road signs. There are 25 ‘black spots’ (accident-prone zones), most are straight roads but lack road signs and speed bumps. An example is Rabuor Shopping Centre, which is 6km from central Kisumu on the main Nairobi road, has shops, a health centre, divisional administrative offices, primary and secondary schools, and three churches built in an area close to the road. The place lacks speed bumps and road signs, vehicles race by and once a week on a market day, which involves animal trade, an accident is almost unavoidable. Railway crossings lack visible road signs in Kisumu. The average wage of the business community is less than a dollar per day and threequarters of inhabitants live below the poverty line (CBS, 2004).

94 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

Kisii The study was carried out in Kisii Central District, one of the twelve districts that form Nyanza Province. Kisii Central District has a population of 491,786 people, occupying an area of 648.9km2 (CBS, 2004). Kisii town is the main administrative and commercial centre for the region, which has a rich agricultural base (CBS, 2004). The main mode of transport is through the road network.

Research findings: Kisumu City Perceived determinants of RTAs Respondents identified environmental, behavioural and mechanical causes for RTAs (see Table 5.5), with behavioural factors being most frequently cited. Environmental factors included heavy rain. During the rainy seasons, road surfaces get slippery for vehicles resulting in an increased chance of accidents. In addition, due to rain that occurs in some places, for example along Kiboswa road, landslides eat up the surface of the road making it narrow for motorists, while falling stones cause dangerous obstacles on the road, especially during night hours. Mist or fog interferes with clear vision, and conversely, too much sunshine results in heated road surfaces that occasionally cause burst tyres. The respondents reported diverse causes of RTAs related to behavioural factors, including: • • • • • • •

speeding; intoxicated drivers (i.e. use of alcohol and other drugs); unqualified drivers; unnecessary stopping where there is no designated bus stop (for matatus); overloading; arrogance or lack of respect for the traffic code by drivers (e.g. overtaking at sharp corners); and negligence by drivers (e.g. ignoring traffic signs for zebra crossings or railway crossings).

In addition, there is a lack of road signs to direct all road users, and other causes of RTAs include motorists (especially matatus) giving bribes that compromise the police, and poor road quality (i.e. roads with potholes and narrow roads). Table 5.5 Factors that determine the occurrence of RTAs Causal factor Environmental Behavioural Vehicular/mechanical Total

Frequency reported

Total percentage

32 128 50 210

15 61 24 100

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard 95 Passengers and traffic police were blamed for failing to correct the dangerous behaviour of matatu drivers and conductors. Matatus are the leading cause of accidents in Kisumu. Passengers are blamed for their reluctance in reporting incidences of speeding and careless driving. In addition, passengers seldom complain and report cases of overloading to the concerned authorities, and this aggravates the chances of RTAs. Police, for their part, are blamed for accepting bribes and letting dangerous drivers go unpunished – i.e. letting drunk drivers go on driving and unroadworthy vehicles pass their roadblocks after giving kitu kidogo (bribes). Vehicular/mechanical factors reported include: unroadworthy vehicles, poorly maintained vehicles, tampering with or total removal of speedometers, faulty brakes and worn-out tyres and or incorrect tyre pressure. The respondents emphasized the fact that because most traffic police are reluctant and corrupt, they let these mechanical-related factors thrive on the roads in Kisumu, hence contributing to the occurrence of traffic accidents. The data above highlight the role of behavioural factors in road safety. This was also the target for the 2003 Act. The following section provides an analysis of respondents’ perceptions and attitudes with regard to the 2003 traffic rules.

Perceptions and attitudes to the 2003 traffic rules Respondents were asked whether they were aware of the new traffic rules of 2003. The majority – 85 per cent – were aware of them. Subsequent questions focused on specific policy areas: seatbelts, pedestrian and driver compliance with road signs and views on police enforcement, with 92 per cent of respondents saying that they used seatbelts. Even if this is an exaggerated response, it reflects the high level of awareness of the benefits of seatbelt use for personal safety. Respondents were asked whether or not they observed road signs while walking or crossing the roads. Most respondents (62 per cent) reported only rarely having followed road signs, and only 38 per cent made an attempt to adhere to road signs. This perhaps shows difference in emphasis of traffic rules, whereby, for example, the use of belts has been emphasized more by the police than other rules such as the strict observation of road signs by pedestrians. Indeed it may be that road signs are assumed to apply more to other road users or are difficult for the police to enforce among pedestrians. This trend is worrying given that pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users. It reflects a deeper issue of responsibility for road safety and the extent to which pedestrians should be asked to control their behaviour. If pedestrians do not see that other road users also have to control their behaviour on the road – for example through traffic-calming measures – a focus on pedestrian behaviour alone will have limited, though important, impact. Respondents were asked to rate the attitudes of other drivers regarding adherence to road signs and 60 per cent of the respondents rated drivers as nonobservant of road signs. This finding is particularly worrying, showing the

96 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa limited scope for road signs to change behaviour without reinforcement – cultural, economic or legislative. In order to establish whether the traffic police are perceived as effective in enforcing the new traffic rules, respondents were asked to rate the traffic police on this basis, and 46 per cent felt that the police are not effectively enforcing the new traffic rules. Only 20 per cent felt the police were effective.

Research findings: Kisii City The Kisii sample was drawn both randomly and purposively from the area to represent a range of stakeholder groups. The categories of this population included, 45 drivers, 50 passengers, 24 pedestrians, 34 handcart pushers, 16 cyclists and 6 key informants, totalling to 175 respondents. Age and genders were mixed.

Factors influencing road traffic accidents Environmental factors included rainy season concerns: heavy rain that makes roads slippery and fog that reduces visibility. Behavioural factors included: speeding, careless driving, drunkenness, unqualified drivers and overloading, obstruction by pedestrians or cart pushers and forgetfulness. The most commonly cited behavioural factors were careless driving (37 per cent) and speeding (36 per cent); drunkenness was the next most frequently cited concern (8 per cent). The few drivers who mentioned drunkenness, however, did not implicate themselves. Overloading was least mentioned, perhaps this is due to comparisons with the situation before the new traffic rules, when passenger service vehicles could carry double the stipulated number of passengers. The new traffic rules have meant that the number of seats in the passenger vehicles has been reduced and all the passengers, including the conductor, should be seated. In this way, the problem of overloading appears to have been effectively overcome. Vehicular and mechanical factors included unroadworthy vehicles, congestion on the roads due to road width, and lack of speedometers in vehicles. Closely related to mechanical factors is the issue of the type of vehicles perceived to be most involved in accidents. Table 5.6 shows strikingly the attribution of reckless and dangerous driving to matatus. Table 5.6 Frequency with which respondents noted a vehicle type being involved with RTAs Type of vehicle

Percentage

Matatus Buses Pickups Private vehicles Others

90 3 2 2 3

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard 97 Several reasons were given for the high association of matatus with RTAs: • • • • •

Matatu operators need to earn money and rush for passengers. There are many matatus on the roads and so they get congested. Their drivers often indulge in careless driving. There is a culture of non-compliance with rules. Some matatu drivers are not qualified to drive.

For the other categories of vehicle, different reasons were given. For instance, for the private vehicles, the respondents observed that these vehicles were taking advantage of the fact that to a large extent the new rules do not apply to them. Reasons given for the buses were that they are big relative to the narrow roads and so this in itself makes it difficult to maintain a smooth flow of vehicles, leading to vulnerability to RTAs.

Perceptions and attitudes to the traffic rules of 2003 The 2003 rules relating to road traffic operations were received with mixed feelings and attitudes. These attitudes were examined in the present study in terms of police effectiveness: 71 per cent of respondents felt the police were not effective in implementing the new traffic rules, while 9 per cent felt that they were. It could be argued that a relaxed approach to enforcement allows individual road users to take the initiative to comply. Unfortunately this is not borne out by data on the rising number of RTAs (see Figure 5.1). It seems that for meaningful change in people’s behaviour to occur, there needs to be strong law enforcement, however, enforcement appears to have broken down. The study also sought to assess compliance by the public by asking for information on the use of seatbelts in public vehicles. A large majority of respondents reported that they did use seatbelts (87 per cent). The present study did not go beyond this quantitative assessment to find out why, given widespread negative attitudes towards the new traffic rules, many people appear to be use their seatbelts. However, it is our considered opinion that passengers use their belts just to avoid the penalties levelled against them if they are stopped by the police when not using a seatbelt. Also, it has been observed that occasionally, the conductor reminds the passengers to put their belts on. Alternatively it may be that respondents claim to use belts when this is not always the case. It would therefore appear that the majority of the passengers use seatbelts just because they have been made to do so and not because they consider it the logical thing to do to reduce the risk of injury. Thus behaviour has changed but not underlying values. This would perhaps explain the seeming mismatch between respondents’ relatively negative attitudes towards the new traffic rules and the seemingly positive response to these rules.

98 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Table 5.7 Top ten injuries in Kisumu, 2005

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Injuries

No.

%

Soft tissue injuries Head injuries Multiple injuries Rib (thorax) Tibia/fibula Pelvis Shoulder Spinal injury Femur Radius TOTAL

253 35 21 11 11 7 4 4 3 3 352

72 10 6 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 100

Source: Kisumu Provincial Hospital

Types of injury incurred and reported The study also sought to find out the types of injury incurred and reported either at police stations or hospitals in order to assess the extent of the road accidents that take place within the sample area. Table 5.7 provides these findings. The data in Table 5.7 were retrieved manually from medical records of Kisumu Provincial Hospital. Poor management of data was observed due to lack of computerized systems. There was no specific database on road traffic injuries. This made the research quiet difficult as we had to go through all the paper records to retrieve the relevant data.

Knowledge of new traffic rules As stated previously, the research sought to assess knowledge levels of the public regarding the new traffic rules. A large majority of the respondents, 84.6 per cent, declared that they had some knowledge of the new traffic rules. Despite this, of the drivers in our sample, 70 per cent said they routinely did not follow instructions on road signs. Pedestrians were more inclined to follow signs (47 per cent), but still routine non-compliance is high.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS In Kisii, respondents perceived speeding and careless driving to be the main risk factors leading to RTAs. Additional risk factors included drunkenness, the overcrowding of buses (matatus) and driving conditions (heavy rain and narrow roads). Some 90 per cent of people who reported accidents said that they had involved matatus. Matatu drivers were infamous for reckless driving, overcrowding buses and failing to observe traffic regulations. Most injuries reported to police stations or hospitals were minor, although a high proportion of respon-

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard 99 Table 5.8 Citizens’ views on RTA risk management in Kisii and Kisumu Respondents’ views Awareness of new traffic rules by road users Use of seatbelts by drivers and commuters Pedestrians’ compliance with road signs Drivers’ compliance with road signs Effective police enforcement of the road traffic regulations

Kisii (%)

Kisumu (%)

84 87 53 30 9

85 92 38 40 20

dents – one in seven – reported having been in an accident involving a fatality. In Kisumu, mechanical failures (24 per cent) were identified as the predominant cause of RTAs, along with human behaviour (16 per cent) and environmental conditions (15 per cent). Among the most important contributory factors were speeding, intoxicated or unqualified drivers, reckless driving and unsafe road use by pedestrians, cyclists and handcart pushers. In addition, inadequate road signage, the giving of bribes to police and the poor condition of roads were noted. For urban authorities, communicating and enforcing regulations to improve safety are core concerns. This is the case for RTAs as it is for flood or earthquake risk management. In both settlements, respondents were asked about their views on recently introduced national traffic regulations. Table 5.8 shows the views of the citizens on RTA risk management in Kisii and Kisumu. High awareness of new regulations perhaps explains the high levels of seatbelt use, with this being a key message in road traffic safety campaigns. More worrying were the low levels of driver and pedestrian compliance with road safety signs and the high proportion of road users viewing police enforcement of new regulations as ineffective.

DISCUSSION This study explored perceived causes of and attitudes to road traffic accidents in two urban settlements in Kenya. The study builds on previous research that highlights human factors as responsible for up to 80 per cent of the causes associated with traffic accidents in Kenya (Odero, 2004). The study in Kisumu and Kisii explored determinants of traffic accidents in the light of people’s perception and behaviour, which are thought to influence understanding and exposure to risk. Results showed that participants distinguish between various risk factors in RTAs, such as hazardous weather conditions and unsafe vehicles. However, they emphasized risk behaviours, particularly careless driving, speeding and drunkenness, as the most important factors for most traffic accidents. The study also addressed risk accumulation in urban contexts in Kenya, emphasizing how road safety might be difficult to achieve in deprived socioeconomic and political environments. Urban poverty increases peoples’ vulnerability and levels of injury in disasters (Schmidt et al, 2005). The poor

100 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa often have to travel further than the less poor to find work and are forced to use less safe modes of transport. Results from the study also suggest a failure between perception and communication of risk and safety measures among road users and related actors. Government initiatives, in the case the 2003 Act, have not led to the degree of behavioural change that was hoped for. This may be because the Act lacks popular support. There was vocal protest from matatus drivers and owners, but the wider public was generally in support when the Act was announced. Why is it that legislation that formalizes popular views does not then catalyse behavioural change? This is a complex question but the research here suggests that part of the answer lies in people reproducing habits of behaviour, even if they know these are both unsafe and illegal. In some cases, lack of knowledge of risks to oneself and others can also lead to unwillingness to change behaviour. Finally, for those making their livelihood from transport, regulations that curtail income generation require firm police enforcement, and this was lacking. The one exception to this was the overcrowding of buses, which is both visible and objected to (and so in part policed) by the travelling public. Low levels of compliance with road safety signs and a high proportion of participants regarding police enforcement of new traffic regulations as ineffective, indicate a lack of trust in government and police initiatives. In this way, deeply held views on government actions, such as the 2003 traffic rules, and suspicion that government action may be politically or economically motivated, reduce peoples’ propensity to change behaviour and comply with regulations imposed by the state. This is a fundamental way in which urban development history and the culture of governance influence behaviour and risk accumulation in the city. The delivery of effective warning messages and actions to different groups of urban road users – both those at risk and those generating risk – requires focused information dissemination. For those most at risk – young male road users, especially pedestrians and cyclists but also users of public transport (both men and women, and of all age groups) – it might be helpful to integrate road safety information and statistics on deaths and injuries into public health information campaigns and local public health programmes. This approach is novel but takes inspiration from the more general recognition that risk reduction is best achieved when mainstreamed into existing poverty reduction and public health frameworks and organizations. As this discussion has shown, mainstreaming road traffic safety challenges the current legal institutional framework and governance, as well as the wider democratic sphere. This study supports the view that the vulnerability of a population is a determinant of disaster; vulnerability essentially decides whether a hazard leads to harm and turns into a disaster.

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard 101

Law as an instrument for disaster reduction In trying to minimize the impact of disasters on the population, the government of Kenya has elaborated several projects, including NDOC and the National Disaster Management Policy. It is also a signatory to many international programmes aimed at reducing risk and vulnerability and promoting sustainability. In addition, bringing effective responses to small-scale accidents, such as RTAs, requires Kenyan society to strengthen governance and social institutions. The Disaster Risk Management Act is an instrument that can promote preventive measures. Structures based on this legal framework, with detailed roles and responsibilities at all levels, are needed in order to assure transport sustainability as a part of a vision for integrated development and urban risk reduction. The implementation of the Traffic Rule Amendment reduced accidents in Kenya (see Figure 5.1). However, in some cases, policy-makers have been reluctant to introduce legislation on interventions that is proven to be effective in reducing RTAs. For instance, although driving while drunk is known to be a major risk factor for accidents, the use of roadside alcohol breath tests by police has been rules out following legal challenges. Corruption is also a major challenge. Very frequently when people are caught committing traffic offences they are able to simply part with some money and are set free. The police also lack the necessary resources and logistics, such as limited access to transport, and the courts are overwhelmed with many cases, causing delays in convictions.

Governance and resilience to road traffic accidents To meet long-term goals for human security, societies need to strengthen their resilience. This means that they need to enhance their capacity to respond to and adjust to diverse risks, from small-scale hazards such as RTAs to other natural and human-made disasters. Promoting resilience, along with stronger governance for road safety, enables societies to accommodate risks in their daily life contexts. This allows societies to develop a variety of protective strategies by using their own knowledge and attributes to confront the causes of hazard and vulnerability. It should also reduce the negative consequences arising from injuries, and help affected people recover from lives lost and damaged. Resilience can be built at various levels (local, regional) through educational and sensitization programmes, including first aid training. As Chapter 3 has shown, key factors accounting for good resilience that can be applied to traffic accidents include the need to engage multiple stakeholders (from the police and hospitals to local communities living close to dangerous roads and professional drivers) and the active participation by individuals and communities both causing and at risk from specific hazards.

102 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

CONCLUSIONS Looking at this research on RTAs, the main contributory factors are behavioural, mechanical and environmental factors. Research points to future priorities for disaster risk reduction in urban areas: •

•

• •

• •

• •

There is a need to implement educational/sensitization programmes. This would foster awareness on RTA avoidance by both road users and law enforcers. Road marking and signs, especially designation of accident black spots, need to be put in place. A study of black spot RTAs and avoidance strategies would be useful. Training in first aid, particularly among the public and especially in the public health department, to improve skills in this area is important. There is a need for research on the RTA vulnerability of children and cyclists (boda-boda) and on the constraints to enforcing safety measures, especially for primary school children. There remains great scope to foster awareness on RTA avoidance among road users and law enforcers. Road marking and signs are a cost-effective way of managing risk – when undertaken in conjunction with road safety education and the mobilization of local communities exposed to high levels of dangerous road use. Greater investment in post-accident care, including first aid and tracking household livelihood impacts, is required. There is a need for research and policy to confront the RTA vulnerability of high risk-road users including children, pedestrians and cyclists, perhaps starting with the enforcement of safety measures aimed at travel to and from primary school.

Various factors have impeded measures aimed at promoting road safety in Kenya and Africa in general: poor data on road traffic accidents and resultant injuries, imprecise surveillance methods, limited research on causes and risk factors, as well as lack of awareness of existing interventions by the public and many policy-makers (Odero, 2004). In some cases, policy-makers have been reluctant to introduce legislation on interventions proven to be effective in reducing RTAs. For instance, the alcohol breath test for drivers was removed under pressure from private vehicle owners. Yet drunken driving contributes significantly to RTAs in Kenya. Blatant corruption is also a major challenge, and in many instances, people caught committing traffic offences simply part with some money and are set free. The police also lack the necessary resources and logistics and the courts are overwhelmed. A variety of road safety approaches have been applied in high-income nations, yet little attempt has been made to promote and implement them in

Road Traffic Accidents as an Everyday Hazard 103 Kenya. Lack of sufficient data that can lead to the formulation of relevant policy is also a challenge that needs to be explored. User behaviour also poses a major challenge and has been an impediment to successful implementation of the Traffic Amendment Rules of 2003. Most people do not wear seatbelts, contrary to law. Aside from the recommendations arising from the case study, as a way forward, the following measures should also be explored: • • •

• • •

regional initiatives on road traffic accidents; improving data quality by developing and establishing appropriate RTA surveillance systems; evaluation of various interventions to assess the main impediments to their success (for instance, the main reasons why the Traffic Amendment Rules of 2003 is not being fully enforced, and what can be done for the rules to succeed); awareness creation on the importance of adhering to road traffic rules; proper regulation of driving schools in the country and the curriculum taught, which should inculcate safe road use behaviour; the linking of government disaster management strategies with those outlined in the Hyogo Framework for Action.

REFERENCES CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics) (1970) National Population Census, 1969, Central Bureau of Statistics, Republic of Kenya, Nairobi CBS (1981) National Population Census, 1979, Central Bureau of Statistics, Republic of Kenya, Nairobi CBS (1991) National Population Census, 1989, Central Bureau of Statistics, Republic of Kenya, Nairobi CBS (2001) National Population Census, 1999, Central Bureau of Statistics, Republic of Kenya, Nairobi CBS (2004) Statistical Abstract, Government Printer, Nairobi Commission for Global Road Safety (2006) Make Roads Safe: A New Priority for Sustainable Development, Commission for Global Road Safety, www.makeroadssafe.org accessed 31 July 2008 Dunkel, G. (2008) ‘Kenyan explosion fueled by poverty, flawed election’, Workers World, 10 January, www.workers.org/2008/world/kenya_0117/ EM-DAT (2007) The OFAD/CRED International Disaster Database, Catholic University of Louven, Brussels, Belgium, www.em-dat.net accessed 30 July 2008 Government of Kenya (2004) ‘The Traffic Act. (Cap. 403). The Traffic Amendment Rules, 2003’, Kenya Gazette Supplement No. 79, Government Printers, Nairobi Lacey, M. (2004) ‘Driving in Kenya can be hazardous to your health’, The New York Times, 2 May Mango, N., Kirui, I. A. and Yitambe, A. (2007) ‘Status of disaster risk management in Kenya’, in Environmental and Sustainable Development, vol II, Kenyatta University School of Environmental Studies and Human Resource, Nairobi

104 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Mireri, C. (2006) ‘Urbanization challenges in Kenya’, in Environment and Sustainable Development, vol I, Kenyatta University School of Environmental studies and Human Resource, Nairobi Murray C. J. and Lopez, A. D. (1996) The Global Burden of Disease: A Comprehensive Assessment of Mortality and Disability from Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in 1990 and Projected to 2020, vol 1, Global Burden of Disease and Injury Series, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA Nyantulya, M. V. and Muli-Musiime, F. (2001) ‘Kenya: Uncovering the social determinants of road traffic accidents’, in Challenging Inequities in Health, Oxford University Press, Oxford Obmati, C. (2008) ‘Kenya: Police termed Kisumu shooting regrettable’, The East African Standard, 19 January 2008 Obudho, R. A. (1997) ‘Nairobi: National capital and regional hub’, in C. Rakodi (ed) The Urban Challenge in Africa: Growth and Management of its Large Cities, United Nations University Press, Tokyo Odero, W. (2004) ‘Road traffic injury research in Africa: Context and priorities’, paper presented at the Global Forum for Health Research Conference (Forum 8), Mexico City Odero, W., Meleckidzedeck, K. and Heda, P. H. (2003) ‘Road traffic injuries in Kenya: Magnitude, causes and status of intervention’, Injury Control and Safety Promotion, vol 10, no 1–2, pp53–61 Odhiambo, W. and Manda, D. K. (2003) ‘Urban poverty and labour force participation in Kenya’, paper presented at the World Bank Urban Research Symposium, 15–17 December, Washington DC Schmidt, A., Bloemertz, L. and Macano, E. (2005) Linking Poverty Reduction and Disaster Risk Management, Deutsche Gesellshaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH, Eschborn, Germany Shauri, S. (2006) Social Services in Disaster Situations, Institute of Open Learning, Kenyatta University, Nairobi UN-HABITAT (United Nations Human Settlements Programme) (2007) Enhancing Urban Safety and Security: Global Report on Human Settlements 2007, UN-HABITAT, Earthscan, London WHO (World Health Organization) (2007) Youth and Road Safety, WHO, Geneva

6

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa

Robyn Pharoah

Over half of South Africa’s 42.1 million people live in urban areas. South Africa’s cities are centres of employment, production and innovation, and provide opportunities for a better life for millions of people, but they are also characterized by poverty, marginalization and poorly managed urban growth. Lower-income neighbourhoods are often marked by acute poverty and are at once overcrowded and under-serviced. This is particularly so in the sprawling informal settlements that have become a ubiquitous feature of South Africa’s urban landscape. Estimates on the proportion of the urban population living in informal settlements vary, from 26 per cent (Boraine et al, 2006) to 33 per cent (UN-HABITAT, 2007), but it is likely that such figures substantially underestimate the number of people living in informal settlements. Informal settlements occupy an ambiguous legal position – they are technically illegal but residents are protected by legislation granting them de facto tenure rights by virtue of living on the land, and are broadly characterized by a lack of formal housing and service delivery. They are generally home to the poorest and most marginalized urban populations. The combination of poverty, marginality, overcrowding and limited, if any, service provision, exposes residents to a range of ongoing hazards, particularly informal dwelling fires, severe weather events and flooding, and creates a risk environment in which the effects of even minor incidents can be devastating for affected households. Informal settlement fires are a particular problem in Cape Town. They destroy dwellings on an almost weekly basis, undermining fragile livelihoods and compounding the conditions of extreme vulnerability in which poor households

106 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa live. The city authorities have prioritized the reduction of fire risk in informal settlements, but there has been a near absence of systematic data collection and analysis to guide the city’s activities. In an effort to fill this gap, the Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme (DiMP) at the University of Cape Town (UCT) began in 1998 to collect data on informal dwelling fires in Cape Town between 1990 and 1998. With funding from the African Urban Risk Analysis Network (AURAN), the project was extended to include records from 1999 through to the end of December 2004 – providing 15 years of consolidated disaster incident data. The Monitoring, Mapping and Analysis of Disaster Incidents in Southern Africa (MANDISA) database now contains over 18,000 records and provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyse the nature and parameters fire risk in Cape Town’s informal settlements. This chapter examines the context, nature and consequences of fire risk in informal settlements in Cape Town, as well as the insights provided by the MANDISA database. In so doing, it aims to contribute to knowledge on the conceptualization and drivers of risk in urban areas in Africa, and draw out lessons for prescriptive risk reduction interventions, both in South Africa and elsewhere. The chapter begins by examining the developmental underpinnings of fire risk in Cape Town, before examining the factors that increase exposure and vulnerability to hazards, and fire in particular. It goes on to discuss the MANDISA project, including the difficulties encountered in gathering and analysing data. The chapter concludes by examining what the data tell us about fire risk and the implications for initiatives aimed at reducing risk.

A CITY OF CONTRASTS Cape Town lies in the Western Cape, the second most urbanized of South Africa’s nine provinces, where urbanization levels are estimated at 90 per cent (South African Cities Network, 2006). It is home to an estimated 3.27 million people and has seen among the highest urban growth rates of any city outside of Gauteng province, South Africa’s economic and administrative heartland. Between 1996 and 2006, Cape Town’s population grew by 700,000 people, with an annual average growth rate of 3 per cent. The bulk of this growth has been due to the inflow of migrants from the neighbouring province of the Eastern Cape, and to a lesser extent, elsewhere on the continent. The latest estimates suggest that the growth of the city’s population is slowing but it is still expected to increase by 300,000 people between 2006 and 2021. This is mainly due to reduced fertility, the impact of HIV/AIDS and reduced migration to the city (City of Cape Town, 2006). It is a city of sharp contrasts. Wealthy, lush suburbs nestle around the mountains surrounding the city bowl, while the majority of the city’s poorer residents live on the Cape Flats, an inhospitable, spatially and topographically disadvantaged plain on the eastern outskirts of the city, far from commercial and

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 107 residential centres. This development pattern is rooted in both apartheid planning and the continued ‘peripheralization’ of informal settlements and lowincome housing in the post-apartheid era (Mabin, cited in Huchzermeyer, 2003). Under apartheid, segregation allowed non-whites only restricted access to urban areas. Thousands of people were either forcibly removed or restricted to living in the poorly serviced socially excluded black and coloured townships of the Cape Flats and other designated non-white areas – initially in housing projects, but over time increasingly in informal settlements. Unlike wholly or predominantly formal areas, which originated through planned urban development and are characterized by formal site planning and service infrastructure, the informal areas are entirely unplanned and have little or no infrastructure. Most pertinent to this chapter, they fall outside of building regulations that might reduce the risk of fire and have limited or no access to piped water, fire hydrants or other infrastructure that could help in putting out fires. At the national, regional and local levels, the post-apartheid government has committed itself to spatially and socio-economically integrating the city, but the housing and redistributive models adopted nationally have done little to address the inequalities of the past. As Marie Huchzermeyer (2003, p130) observes: Low-income housing development in South Africa since 1994 has not contributed to the spatial integration of the apartheid urban form. By and large, massive standardised housing projects have perpetuated segregation by income group, allocating the most disadvantaged urban/peri-urban locations to the poorest sectors of society … projects are in places where no high income earner will wish to locate: the shallow sandy wind-swept [Cape Flats]. This, together with housing backlogs and the failure of housing policy to keep pace with population growth, has led to growth in the number and density of informal settlements in the city. New settlements have sprung up on the fringes of the expanding city and around the city’s wealthier suburbs. In the absence of an efficient and affordable public transport system and the continued concentration of income opportunities and resources in better-off areas, older and more central settlements such as Langa, Gugulethu, Nyanga and Khayelitsha have grown exponentially as people have sought housing closer to jobs, schools and other amenities. The distinction between formal and informal areas is also becoming increasingly blurred. Low-income housing areas are becoming increasingly informalized as residents build makeshift backyard dwellings without planning permission to house relatives or to rent out for income, while in-situ regularization and upgrading of informal settlements is raising the number of more permanent formal homes and businesses in some areas (UCT/DiMP, forthcoming). According to the city authorities, the number of informal settlements has risen from approximately 50 in 1993, to well over 200 in 2005 (Rodriques et al,

108 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 120,000

Count of dwellings

100,000

96,951

104,216 98,031 94,972

83,684

80,000 72,140 59,854

60,000

40,000 28,300 20,000

0 1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Source: Rodriques et al (2006)

Figure 6.1 Number of informal dwelling units serviced by Cape Town City Council 2006), with some government officials putting the number at 250. As shown in Figure 6.1, it is estimated that the number of informal dwellings – shacks – serviced by the city almost tripled over this period, from just over 28,000 to over 100,000 (Rodriques et al, 2006). Population densities in Cape Town are highest in informal settlement areas, where they may rise to between 350 and 450 people per hectare.

CAPE TOWN’S DEVELOPMENTAL CONTEXT Decades of distorted development in the city are manifested in a highly skewed distribution of income and wealth, reflected in high levels of absolute poverty. It is estimated that over a third (38 per cent) of households – approximately 1.2 million people – live below a minimum subsistence level of R1600 per month (approximately US$230). The current distribution of economic activity in the city, including the recent growth of the real estate and tourism sectors, is also skewed towards those with the greatest skills and access to resources, precluding the large majority of the city’s population from meaningful participation in the economy. It is estimated that one out of every six people (16 per cent) are unemployed (City of Cape Town, 2006). Those living in Cape Town’s informal settlements are among the poorest and most marginalized of the city’s residents. A recent study in three informal settlements revealed unemployment levels of approximately 40 per cent, with around half of household heads reporting that members of their households always (14 per cent) or sometimes (39 per cent) went hungry (De La Harpe, cited in City of Cape Town, 2006).

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 109 Poor households living in informal settlements and low-income housing projects face a range of chronic everyday risks associated with marginal living conditions and poor service delivery. These include inadequate access to safe drinking water, sanitation and waste removal, communicable diseases such as tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, and extraordinarily high levels of crime and violence. One in ten of the city’s residents do not have access to adequate sanitation and drinking water, while approximately 4 per cent of households have no access to refuse removal (City of Cape Town, no date). It is estimated that as many 27,000 people contract tuberculosis each year. One in six people is living with HIV/AIDS, with prevalence levels reaching almost 30 per cent in areas such as Khayelitsha and Nyanga. Cape Town also has some of the highest murder rates in the world, with a rate of 60 deaths per 100,000 people, on a par with other high-risk cities such as Rio de Janeiro (City of Cape Town, 2006). The City of Cape Town has made progress in rolling out services to informal settlements and other poor areas, but local government in South Africa is notoriously under-resourced, and most government departments simply cannot keep pace with rapidly growing and often unplanned demands for service provision. As illustrated in Figure 6.2, for example, the housing backlog almost doubled between 1999 and 2006 from 150,000 to 265,000 units, with the city authorities only managing to deliver just over 19,000 units between 2001 and 2004 (City of Cape Town, 2006). The pressures of rapidly rising demand have been exacerbated by political infighting within the city administration, as well as limited institutional capacity to address delivery backlogs. This is illustrated by the city’s water and sanitation directorate, where in 2006, a single individual oversaw the roll-out, servicing, upgrading and maintenance of water and sanitation infrastructure in all of the city’s informal settlements. In this context, Marie Huchzermeyer (2003) highlights the perverse incentives faced by local government with respect to service delivery. She observes that while rolling out even basic services is expensive – she estimates it costs the city an estimated R1200 (US$175) per household annually to provide informal settlements with sanitation, refuse collection, communal standpipes for water and emergency services – widespread poverty limits cost recovery. With reference to housing delivery, she notes that municipalities that are praised for their high rates of housing delivery are also faced with dramatically increased service requirements, which they are expected to maintain without additional funding from national government and with a limited revenue base. This leaves many municipalities in perpetual debt, hamstrung by service delivery to the poorest communities, and suggests that without changes to the way local government is funded, service delivery in the city will remain a Sisyphean endeavour.

110 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 300,000 265,000 240,000

250,000

245,000

240,000

221,000

Count of dwellings

265,000

240,000

200,000

150,000

150,000

100,000 Housing backlog Housing delivery

50,000 4110

9729

2001

2002

1808

3469

2003

2004

0 1999

2000

2005

2006

Source: City of Cape Town (2006)

Figure 6.2 Housing backlog compared to housing delivery

THE ACCUMULATION OF RISK IN INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS In addition to creating an environment conducive to informal dwelling fires, rapid urban growth exposes many of the city’s poor to hazards such as flooding, high levels of pollution and poor environmental health. While Cape Town has experienced disasters triggered by extreme weather, flash floods and drought, these are rare and the human and material losses associated with insidious everyday and small hazards far outweigh those incurred as a result of more spectacular acute events – although these costs are difficult to quantify. Seasonal low-intensity flooding, for example, is a perennial problem during the winter months, particularly on the Cape Flats, and where informal settlements have expanded into ecologically fragile areas such as wetlands. A 2004 flood assessment found that there were approximately 24 major flood events in Cape Town between 1989 and 2004, most of which occurred in informal settlements (DiMP, 2005). This flooding is primarily associated with leakage, particularly leaking roofs and walls that allow water into dwellings, and the seasonal rising of the water table that pushes through the sandy soil, submerging the floors of many low-lying informal dwellings for the best part of the winter. It is unclear how climate change will impact on this profile. Climate change modelling suggests that the Cape Town area will experience a shortening of its winter rainy season, but the models disagree over whether there will be more rain or less. While a shorter less-intense winter season may alleviate water tablerelated flooding, more severe weather could see a shorter period of more acute flooding (Midgley et al, 2005).

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 111 Data collected by DiMP show that in 2006, as many as 10,458 dwellings in 47 informal settlements – 20 per cent of all dwellings – were built in areas at high risk of flooding. This flooding is seldom life threatening but results in considerable hardship and livelihood losses. A study in Khayelitsha found that average household losses to flooding were approximately R2750 (approximately US$400) per event, and included mattresses, blankets, food, clothing, school uniforms and books. These costs significantly exceeded respondents’ average monthly household income of R837 (US$120) (Bahry, 2007). Inadequate service delivery increases both people’s exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Poor drainage infrastructure, for instance, prevents flood waters from draining away, while rotting human and household waste clogs drainage ditches and contaminates standing water with germs and poisonous chemicals that cause disease. Beyond the generic backlogs, the precarious legal position of informal settlements frequently prevents the provision of even nominal levels of service. Many informal settlements originated in illegal invasions of vacant privately owned land. South African law protects people’s right to remain on land they have occupied for any length of time, but such settlements fall outside the mandate of the city, and delivery of services hinges on the goodwill of landowners. City authorities often purchase land occupied by well-established settlements, but protracted negotiations over the sale of land have cut some settlements off from assistance for as much as a decade or more. Households living in under-serviced settlements are often operating at the limits of their capacity, as they attempt to juggle multiple stressors such as unreliable incomes, food insecurity, disease and the effects of crime and violence (DiMP, 2008). Hazards such as fire and flooding erode whatever attempts have been made to accumulate resources and savings, progressively increasing the vulnerability of households to the effects of hazards over time. This pushes households to the point where even a relatively minor incident can be devastating. The immediate physical costs of even a single incident can exceed households’ available financial resources, but these are often matched or outweighed by less direct losses such as health consequences or work or school days lost. In South Africa, where government grants are an important source of income for most households, loss or damage to identity documents, for example, can prevent people from claiming pensions and other benefits. These costs often spill over into other households as people take in friends and relatives who have lost their homes and possessions. Not all poor households are either equally exposed or equally vulnerable to the effects of hazards. It is usually the poorest and the most recently arrived residents – frequently also the poorest – who live in the most marginal and hazardous areas. Recent research in Masiphumelele, an informal settlement bordering a wetland, shows that those living in the wetland had fewer assets then those living on dry land. Living in a wetland increased households’ likelihood of experiencing flooding. It also increased their risk of experiencing an informal

112 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa dwelling fire, as they had less access to electricity and were more likely to use paraffin stoves and other flammable sources of heat and light. Households living in the wetland were also less resilient to the effects of flooding and fires as they had fewer assets to fall back on in times of crisis. However, even among the better off there were differing risk and vulnerability profiles. Backyard dwellings attached to formal dry-land households, for example, were considered at lower risk of fire than stand-alone informal dwellings, as this part of the settlement was less dense and more accessible to the emergency services during fires (Solomon, 2006).

FIRE RISK IN INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS Over 18,504 fire incidents were reported between January 1995 and the end of December 2004, of which 8554 occurred within informal settlements (MANDISA, no date). As discussed in the next section, the majority of these fires were localized small- to medium-sized events, but cumulatively affected over 40,000 people (MANDISA, no date). It is unknown how many people are killed and injured by informal settlement fires, but it is clear that they cause significant damage to and loss of property and assets, placing strain on both communities and local government, which is tasked with assisting those affected by fire. As Table 6.1 illustrates, fires in just one settlement during 2000 resulted in estimated losses of over R500,000 (approximately US$79,000). This does not include the cost to the city’s social services budget to provide food and temporary shelter, blankets and other goods and financial assistance to help households rebuild their dwellings, but assuming an average cost of R500 (US$79) per family, these could have reached R148,000 (US$21,143) – bringing total losses to R702,989 (US$100,427). In addition, direct losses were concentrated at the household level, amounting to R419,000 (US$59,857). Fire risk in informal settlements is primarily generated by socio-economic conditions. While triggers stem from poor people’s reliance on cheap but hazardous sources of energy and light, particularly candles, paraffin stoves, Table 6.1 Direct recorded losses for small-, medium- and large-scale fires in Joe Slovo, 2000 Services

Type

Amount (R)

Fire services Social services Red Cross Losses to households Sub-total

Response cost Recovery cost Relief cost Loss to property

110,989 15,856 Data not available 25,000 3571 419,000 59,857

4.5 75.5

554,989.00

100

Source: DiMP (2002)

Amount (US$) total loss (%)

79,284

20

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 113 hearth fires and illegal electricity connections, it is social, economic and political conditions within informal settlements that drive fire risk. Research in several different informal settlements suggests that fires are often linked to factors such as alcohol abuse and domestic violence. In Imizamo Yethu, residents report that fires are commonly started when people return from a night of drinking in local shebeens and either fall asleep with candles or stoves burning or knock them over. Such behaviour is reportedly most common among young men living alone, suggesting that both the number of drinking establishments and the demographic profile of settlements may influence fire risk (MacGregor et al, 2005; Morrissey and Taylor, 2006). Arson also appears relatively common. Residents report that fires are often started by jealous, spurned or angry romantic partners (DiMP, 2002; MacGregor et al, 2005; Morrissey and Taylor, 2006; Solomon, 2006), and there is anecdotal evidence that some fires are started deliberately in an attempt to jump the queue for government-subsidized low-cost housing. Several structural features of informal settlements help to increase the spread and severity of fires. Most informal dwellings are constructed with materials that are cheap but highly flammable, including plastic, untreated wood and cardboard. High residential densities make it easy for fire to spread between dwellings and difficult for emergency services to reach affected areas – a situation that is often compounded by a lack of fire hydrants and water mains. The spaces between dwellings are often clogged with potential fuel, from flammable household waste to disused cars. A description of Imizamo Yethu settlement in Morrissey and Taylor (2006, p100) captures these and other dynamics: Situated in a central part of the city, many move into the informal settlement hoping to increase their chances of finding employment. Limited potential for expansion, and the lack of formal land ownership and demarcation mean that, as more people move into Imizamo Yethu, new dwellings are erected between existing ones, creating a situation of rapid densification … due to the cost, and lack of, a formal electricity supply, many Imizamo Yethu residents have illegally connected to the electricity mains resulting in live, and often exposed, wires snaking overhead and on the ground … when the wind blows the exposed wires sway, rubbing on the metal roofs of shacks causing sparks. These low-slung ‘spaghetti wires’ also inhibit access for emergency and maintenance vehicles to the settlement. This description also draws attention to the role weather and climatic factors may play in initiating and spreading fires. Research following a major fire in Joe Slovo informal settlement in November 2000, for example, suggests that the combination of uncharacteristically hot and dry conditions and gale-force winds may have increased the risk of fire (DiMP, 2002). Comparing weather and fire data for 2001 and 2002, the authors show that all of the more extensive fires

114 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa were associated with significant winds. The wind was particularly strong during the November fire, suggesting that it may have helped to fan the flames. There has been no specific research into the impact of climate change on fire risk in South Africa’s urban areas. However, modelling suggests that in addition to a shortening of the winter rainfall season, Cape Town is likely to experience higher average temperatures, while observed trends suggest that the frequency of hot and dry ‘berg winds’ has increased in the province since 1958 (Midgley et al, 2005). Taken together with the tentative findings from the Joe Slovo study, these results broadly suggest that climate change may increase the risk of fire in informal settlements, but it is unclear how sensitive urban fire risk is to climatic as opposed to socio-economic factors. While hot, dry and windy weather almost certainly contribute to the risk of fire in informal settlements, socio-economic factors play a key role in the generation of fire risk, and it may be that climatic change may be of less importance that prevailing socioeconomic trends – although there is a need for concrete research to test this hypothesis.

THE MANDISA PROJECT The starting point for the AURAN project was DiMP’s pre-existing MANDISA database. This is a GIS-based database of fire events, designed for use as a strategic planning tool by disaster risk management and development practitioners and decision-makers. At the initiation of the AURAN project, the database contained an historical record of fires from 1990–1998, including information on the location and losses attributed to all recorded fire events in Cape Town. The types of data captured included: • • • • • •

incident location, which was geo-referenced and mapped using GIS software; date, time of day and duration of the incident; type of fire; source of the information; cause or trigger of the fire if recorded in the incident report; the impact of the fire, including the number of dwellings damaged and destroyed, as well as costs incurred by the city (DiMP, 2006).

Both electronic and analogue data were collected, primarily from records kept by the city’s disaster management unit and the emergency and fire services. This was captured by data analysts specially trained to understand Cape Town’s disaster risk profile, as well as the varying recording formats used by the different agencies. The MANDISA database is related to the DesInventar database, allowing comparative analysis between the Cape Town and Latin American data.

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 115 A total 18,504 fire incidents are now included in the MANDISA database, of which 11,000 occurred between the beginning of 2000 and the end of 2004. The data provide an unprecedented opportunity to gain insight into the city’s risk profile and feed into strategic planning at a range of scales. MANDISA has helped local government officials in their mandated task of identifying high firerisk settlements, including informal settlements. At the provincial level, the data informed a Risk Reduction and Emergency Management Sector chapter in the province’s Strategic Infrastructure Plan. It was also used in the province’s strategic study on the impact of climate change. Nationally, economic loss information generated by MANDISA has been used in advocacy aimed at convincing the National Treasury to allocate funds for the implementation of South Africa’s Disaster Management Act (DiMP, 2006).

Difficulties and constraints Two main difficulties were encountered during the data-capture process: considerable unevenness in the storage of incident reports across the city’s different administrative areas, and the often poor quality of information, particularly in the Linux-based Emergency Services System (ESS). This was largely due to the absence of either uniform methods for reporting and recording fire incidents or a common incident management system prior to 2000. Other challenges included reconciling the data captured in the ESS and MANDISA systems. Problems included mismatches between spatial location information, particularly in informal areas or along long roads running through several suburbs, and the misclassification of fire types in the ESS (DiMP, 2006). The inaccurate geo-referencing of fire events by the fire services in informal settlements posed particular challenges. The absence of formal street addresses or other permanent spatial identifiers in informal settlements often made it difficult to precisely capture the location of fires. Robust recording of fire locations was further compromised by the dynamic nature of the boundaries between different settlements. The growth of nested clusters of informal dwellings with their own identity and name proved particularly challenging. These are sometimes recorded separately from the larger better-known settlements of which they form part, while at other times they are subsumed into these areas, making it difficult to accurately capture the number of fires in some sites (DiMP, 2006). This has been made easier since 2006, when the fire and emergency services began installing global positioning systems (GPS) in all fire engines. Data collection was also challenging at the household level. As with the fire incident data, there was unevenness in how accurately data on the number of houses destroyed were recorded, and the recording of direct economic loss for affected households. It is likely that these estimates have not been informed by accurate assessments of the actual assets and property ownership, and may significantly underestimate the true impact of fires on poor households (DiMP, 2006).

116 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Analytically, the frequent mismatch between census, aerial photograph and house-to-house assessments of settlement size has also complicated analysis requiring the calculation of standard rates. Disaggregating and analysing events that span both everyday events and small and large disasters has also proved challenging (DiMP, 2006). However, ongoing examination and application of economic, epidemiological and actuarial science estimation methods promises to overcome many of these obstacles. A final, and crucial difficulty, has been the reluctance of some city agencies with stakes in fire risk management and urban development to engage with the data. Prior to 2006, both the uptake of the MANDISA outputs and demand for updated information by the Fire Service’s operational personnel were limited. However, recent changes in the leadership of the Fire and Emergency Service have resulted in greater openness to the benefits of strategic approaches to fire risk reduction – along with increased willingness to work more collegially with partners such as DiMP (DiMP, 2006). A remaining challenge to the mainstreaming and uptake of the information is that the sectors that are best positioned to reduce disaster risks, and which are well resourced with analytical capacity, such as agencies responsible for housing and welfare, have not historically engaged with disaster risk issues. Conversely, while the fire, disaster risk management and emergency services have strong insights into the social and environmental processes leading to the generation of fire risk, their focus is operational rather than analytic, limiting both demand for data and the potential for strategic intervention to reduce fire risk. To address these gaps, DiMP has applied MANDISA in complementary ways, by disseminating economic and other fire loss information among more strategic risk reduction sectors and by strengthening the strategic analytic and planning capabilities of selected fire fighters. In 2006, for example, DiMP held a two-day workshop with personnel from the city’s fire and emergency services to help them better engage with the quantitative information collected both by their own structures and MANDISA. Participants included the heads of the Fire Service’s training, operations, fire safety, and command and control departments. The data have also been accessibly presented at several workshops and consultations with not only local government officials, but also communitybased organizations (CBOs) and informal settlement residents.

Insights into informal settlement fires in Cape Town Despite the obstacles encountered during the collection and collation of the data, MANDISA provides invaluable data on fire-risk trends in Cape Town. The data show that 47 per cent of all the incidents recorded between 1994 and the end of 2004 occurred in informal settlements. The proportion of informal dwelling fires to other fires increased noticeably between 2001 and the end of 2004, with informal dwelling fires accounting for well over half (56 per cent) of all fires by 2005. As shown in Figure 6.3, the total annual number of informal

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 117 1000

918

891

900 799

800 704 700

Incidents

802

624

727

718

665

578

600 500 390

400 300 251

278

259 183

200 100 0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: DiMP (2006)

Figure 6.3 Number of dwelling fires between 1990 and 2005 dwelling fires increased from 535 in 1990 to 891 by the end of 2004. This increase may have been influenced by a change to electronic reporting by the emergency services, but the increase in the number of incidents from 624 in 1995 to 891 by 2005 suggests that the data reflect a steady growth in the number of fires over the 15-year period. A total of 41,301 informal dwellings were affected by fire during the 15 years (see Figure 6.4). As with the number of incidents, the number of dwellings affected increased between 1990 and the end of 2004 – although not as steeply, supporting research findings that fire severity is bound up with structural and non-structural features of individual settlements. Interestingly, the two years where the greatest number of dwellings were affected – 1996 and 2004 – were both election years, suggesting that informal dwelling fires may often be associated with political conflict (DiMP 2006). Fires tend to be very destructive. The data show that three-quarters (76 per cent) of the dwellings affected by fire were destroyed. Figure 6.5 shows the total number of informal dwelling fires between 1990 and the end of 2004 illustrated by suburb. The data show that, contrary to expectations, great variability exists in the distribution and severity of fires across Cape Town’s informal settlements. Analysis by suburb shows that the total number of incidents ranged from less than ten in some areas to well over 150 in others. Fires were concentrated in the suburbs encompassing Langa, Crossroads, Gugulethu, Nyanga and Khayelitsha, in which there were approximately 3338 recorded fires. These make up almost two-fifths (38 per cent) of all the fires recorded in the City of Cape Town between 1990 and 2005. The data on the number of dwellings damaged and destroyed conformed to this pattern, with 14,794 dwellings damaged or destroyed in these areas.

118 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 8000 7288 7000 6000 4722

Dwellings

5000

4175 4000

3370 2937

2916

3000

2572 2149

2000

1940

2182

2495

1603 1156

1000

1136 660

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: DiMP (2006)

Figure 6.4 The number of dwellings affected by fires between 1990 and 2005 The absence of systematically collected population density data makes it is difficult to establish the extent to which the distribution of fires is a function of the population size. Comparison of existing data collected by local government with MANDISA data allows some tentative analysis. In 2006, Cape Town municipal150+ incidents 50 to 150 10 to 50 0 to 10

Langa 10km CAPE TOWN

Crossroads Gugulethu Nyanga

Khayelitsha Source: DiMP (2006)

Figure 6.5 Total number of informal dwelling fires by suburb, 1990–2005

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 119 ity attempted a retrospective count of the number of informal dwellings in the municipality using aerial photographs for the period between January 1993 and December 2005 (Rodriques et al, 2006). This count excluded informal dwellings in formalized townships and so provides only a partial snapshot of trends. Comparing the average estimates for the 12 areas with over 1000 dwellings and the MANDISA data on informal fires for the four-year period between January 2002 and December 2005 – the most complete and reliable figures – suggests that the incidence of fires is partly a function of the number of dwellings, but is also influenced by other factors. As shown in Table 6.2, for example, Langa has only a moderate number of informal dwellings but has the highest proportion of fires to dwellings, with one fire for every three dwellings. These comparisons support the other findings on the drivers of fire risk in informal settlements that show that the likelihood of informal dwelling fires is influenced by the structural density of settlements, as well as a range of socioeconomic variables. The data support other findings on the scale of the losses involved. While there is no information on human losses, a relatively small number of dwellings were destroyed during each event (see Table 6.3). In the majority cases (63 per cent), fires destroyed less than ten dwellings, while just under one third (31 per cent) destroyed no dwellings at all. Fewer than one tenth (6 per cent) of fires destroyed more than nine dwellings, with only a minority – 49 incidents in total – destroying more than 49 homes. The exception is Langa, where over one quarter (28 per cent) of incidents destroyed more than nine dwellings, and 6 per cent – 27 events – destroyed 50 or more dwellings. Detailed analysis underscores considerable variation between these areas, highlighting both the heterogeneity of informal dwelling fire risk across Cape Town and the importance of meso- and micro-level analysis in understanding it (DiMP, 2006). The data show that there were a total of 480 incidents in Langa, Table 6.2 The proportion of informal dwellings to informal dwelling fires, 2002–2005

Khayelitsha Philippi Gugulethu Strand Langa Nyanga Mfuleni Wallacedene Crossroads Hout Bay Milnerton Atlantis

Average number of informal dwellings

Size ranking

Ratio of dwellings to fires

Rank of dwellings to fires

36466 15222 8003 5937 4770 3791 3006 2822 2338 2014 1895 1393

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

71 38 48 13 3 24 89 120 56 8 12 127

9 6 7 4 1 5 10 11 8 2 3 12

Source: Rodriques et al (2006); MANDISA database

120 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Table 6.3 Fire severity in the five suburbs, 1995–2005 Suburb 0 Langa Khayelitsha Crossroads/Gugulethu/Nyanga Total

21.2 50.3 18.2 30.9

Number of dwellings destroyed (%) 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 109 >109 55.8 47.4 76.8 62.5

8.9 1.8 1.9 2.9

8.3 0.2 2 2.2

3.3 0.1 0.6 0.8

2.2 0 0.3 0.4

Source: DiMP (2006)

1272 fires in Khayelitsha and 1586 in the spatially contiguous area encompassing Crossroads, Gugulethu and Nyanga. It shows that while only 14 per cent of the fires occurred in Langa, almost half (48 per cent) of all the houses destroyed by fire were in this area. An average 14.7 dwellings were destroyed per fire event in Langa between 1995 and the end of 2004, compared to 8.2 dwellings in Crossroads, Gugulethu and Nyanga and 2.09 dwellings in Khayelitsha. Moreover, while Khayelitsha and Crossroads, Gugulethu and Nyanga saw significant reductions in the severity of losses for each fire event over the period, the number of houses destroyed in Langa per incident rose by a staggering 119 per cent, pointing to the particular accumulation of fire risk in this area (DiMP, 2006). Research in Joe Slovo informal settlement in Langa (DiMP, 2002; Smith, 2004) suggests that the greater occurrence of fires in Langa may be linked to its residential density. Prior to 2001, residential densities in Joe Slovo were high. Following the destruction of 950 dwellings in the major fire of November 2000, settlement sites were reconfigured by the authorities through the installation of 8m-wide gravel access roads and 5m-wide firebreaks to create residential ‘cells’. The study shows that while this did little to address densification within cells, and thus the number of small to medium events in each cell, it did significantly reduce the number of large events by making the settlement more accessible to the emergency services and preventing the spread of fires to other areas – although within only two years the severity for fires again began to rise (Smith, 2004). The reasons for this reversal point to the challenges of implementing sustainable disaster mitigation strategies in developing world settings, and informal settlements in particular. The reconfiguration of the settlement and the creation of the firebreaks and roads were sponsored by external NGOs in the wake of the extreme event of 2000. The roads and tracks were temporary and needed to be regraded regularly. However, because Joe Slovo was considered a temporary settlement site, the City of Cape Town did not see itself as responsible for the maintenance of the tracks or the upgrading of them to the standard established in sites earmarked for permanent settlement. More importantly, within months of the roads and tracks being completed, the pressures of inmigration led people to begin building close to and on them, undoing much of

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 121

LANGA

JOE SLOVO KEWTOWN BRIDGETOWN

Fire loss

SILVERTOWN

0.3km

Source: DiMP (2006)

Figure 6.6 Informal dwelling fire losses, Langa–Joe Slovo, 1995–2005 the de-densification of 2001 (DiMP, 2002). There is also anecdotal evidence that conflict between the residents of Joe Slovo and others in Langa over access to government-subsidized housing may have led to arson, both as a result of anger and people’s attempts to boost their eligibility for housing. Micro-level analysis within Langa shows high numbers of fires affecting informal dwellings within formally planned areas – underlining the complexity of urban development and planning processes (DiMP, 2006). Figure 6.6 shows the distribution of fire incidents in Langa–Joe Slovo between 1995 and 2005. As shown on the map, large numbers of ‘informal dwelling’ fires occurred well beyond the boundaries of the informal settlement. This points to the growing informalization of formal low-income housing through the construction of backyard dwellings, and illustrates the potential for poorly thought-through development initiatives to increase risk. The small size of government-subsidized housing – the dwellings provided under the most common form of government-subsidized housing schemes have a prescribed floor space of only 30m2 – leaves owners with few alternatives but to build on to their dwellings should they need more room (Huchzermeyer, 2003; Dixon and

122 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 120

70 64

Average dwellings affected

60

63

56

96

100

50 48

Fires

44 39

40 30

30 20

39

42 38

38

60

32

23

0 Feb

40

31

31

10

Jan

80

41

Mar

8

10

Apr

May

5

6

7

3

4

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Average dwellings affected

Fires

20

0 Nov

Dec

Source: MANDISA (no date)

Figure 6.7 The incidence and severity of fires by month, 1995–2005 Ramutsindela, 2006). However, in the context of widespread poverty, few have the money to build brick and mortar structures, leading to the inevitable proliferation of informal structures. Growth in the number of backyard dwellings increases the risk of informal dwelling fires, but as noted by Morrissey and Taylor (2006), renting out backyard dwellings also provides an important source of income and social connections for poor households. This suggests that superficial interventions, such as removing or banning the construction of backyard dwellings, will be of limited effectiveness in addressing fire risk, and underscores the need for greater synergy between development planning and disaster risk reduction. Analysis of fire data for 1995 through to the end of 2005 illustrates a seasonal component to fire risk in Langa–Joe Slovo. As shown in Figure 6.7, the number of fires is highest in November and December – mid-summer in South Africa – with large numbers of fires also occurring in the winter months of July and August. The vast majority (90 per cent) of these fires were in informal settlements. These peaks are explained by a mix of climatic and socio-economic factors. The hot, dry and windy conditions of the summer increase both the risk of fires and that fires will spread, but fires are also most common and affect the most dwellings over the festive season and New Year because people are more likely to be drinking, and because many residents travel to visit their families elsewhere in South Africa, leaving their homes unattended. The number of fires increases again in winter, as people bring fires and stoves into their homes to warm themselves, but the severity of these fires is greatly reduced by the generally wet conditions.

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 123

CONCLUSIONS Risk in informal settlements in Cape Town is driven by a complex blend of environmental, political, spatial and socio-economic factors that are intimately bound up with both the inequalities engendered by apartheid and the approaches adopted by planners in the post-apartheid era. People living in informal settlements are exposed to a range of both chronic ongoing hazards and simultaneous, often reinforcing, everyday risks that intersect to create generally small and occasionally large disasters. The data collected under the MANDISA project provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the sources and nature of fire risk in the city’s informal settlements. These data, together with more localized research into both fire risk and urban flooding, reveal both the often highly individualistic nature of the risk environment in different settlements and the developmental underpinnings of risk. While individual informal settlements – and as shown by data, formal areas – may have there own particular bundle of risk and vulnerability factors, the data and research point to the importance of socio-economic factors in driving fire risk. While weather and climatic conditions contribute to the risk of fires, it is poverty, exclusion and associated social ills, such as alcohol abuse and violence, that create an environment conducive to the fires that are an ever-present part of life in informal settlements. This underscores the importance of mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into developmental and urban planning. Fire risk cannot be addressed by disaster management or the emergency services; while these functions clearly have an important role play in a holistic approach to reducing risk, other governmental institutions are more strategically and realistically placed to drive down risk. Risk reduction must be integrated into the planning of human settlements and the roll-out of services. South Africa’s integrated developmental planning framework provides a platform for integrating risk reduction into these areas, but progress has to date been limited. This is in large part due to the lack of engagement with risk reduction issues by actors outside of disaster management and the fire and emergency services. Creating entry points and forums for such interaction will be crucial in reducing risk in the long term. The MANDISA project provides a tool to open avenues of engagement by providing accessible visual information to governmental and non-governmental stakeholders on how informal dwelling fires are relevant to their work. The MANDISA experience provides valuable lessons, not only for deepening the scope and impact of the existing project in Cape Town, but also for applying similar tools to risk environments in the rest of South Africa and internationally. Building on these experiences to collect, consolidate and analyse and apply data strategically to inform planning at a range of scales would contribute valuably to risk reduction in South Africa and internationally.

124 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

REFERENCES Bahry, M. (2007) ‘The relationship between household livelihood profile and fire and floodrelated vulnerability’, unpublished Honours thesis, University of Cape Town, Cape Town Boraine, A., Cranckshaw, O., Engelbrecht, C., Gotz, G., Sithole, M., Narsoo, M. and Parnell, S. (2006) ‘The state of South African cities a decade after democracy?’, Urban Studies, vol 43, no 2, pp259–284 City of Cape Town (2006) State of Cape Town Report 2006: Development Issues in Cape Town, City of Cape Town, Cape Town City of Cape Town (no date) ‘2001 census data suburb profiles’, www.capetown.gov.za/ censusinfo/Census2001-new/Suburbs/Langa.htm accessed 25 November 2007 DiMP (Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme) (2002) Evaluation of the Fire Mitigation Programme in Joe Slovo Informal Settlement, Cape Town, report prepared for the Ukuvuka Operation Fire-Stop programme, University of Cape Town, Cape Town DiMP (2005) ‘August 2004 severe storm: Post flood assessment’, unpublished report prepared for the Catchments, Stormwater and River Management Directorate, City of Cape Town, University of Cape Town, Cape Town DiMP (2006) ‘Final AURAN Report’, unpublished report prepared for the African Urban Risk Analysis Network (AURAN), University of Cape Town, Cape Town DiMP (2008) Weathering the Storm: Participatory Risk Assessment for Informal Settlements, Peri Peri Publications, Cape Town Dixon, J. and Ramutsindela, M. (2006) ‘Urban resettlement and environmental justice in Cape Town’, Cities, vol 23, no 2, pp129–139 Huchzermeyer, M. (2003) ‘Low-income housing and commodified urban segregation in South Africa’, in C. Haferburg and J. Obenbrugge (eds) Ambiguous Restructurings of PostApartheid Cape Town, Lit Verlag, Munster, Hamburg and London MacGregor, H., Bucher, N., Durham, C., Falcao, M., Morrissey, J., Silverman I., Smith, H. and Taylor, A. (2005) Hazard Profile and Vulnerability Assessment for Informal Settlements: An Imzamo Yethu Case Study with Special Reference to the Experience of Children, University of Cape Town, Cape Town MANDISA (no date) Monitoring, Mapping and Analysis of Disaster Incidents in Southern Africa. Database comiled by DiMP, University of Cape Town, Cape Town Midgley, G., Chapman, R., Hewitson, B., Johnston, P., De Wit, M., Ziervogel, G., Mukheibir, P., Van Niekerk, L., Tadross, M., Van Wilgen, B., Kgope, B., Morant, P., Theron, A., Scholes, R. and Forsyth, G. (2005) A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape, report to the Western Cape Government, Cape Town, CSIR Report no. ENV-S-C 2005-073, Stellenbosch Morrissey, J. and Taylor, A. (2006) ‘Fire risk in informal settlements: A South African case study’, Open House, vol 31, no 1, pp98–105 Rodriques, E., Gie, J. and Haskins, C. (2006) Informal Dwelling Count for Cape Town: 1993–2005, Strategic Information Branch, City of Cape Town, Cape Town, http://web.capetown.gov.za/eDocuments/Informal_Dwelling_Count_38200681212_ 359.pdf accessed 25 November 2007 Smith, H. (2004) ‘The relationship between settlement density and informal settlement fires: A case study of Imizamo Yethu, Hout Bay and Joe Slovo, Cape Town Metropolis’, unpublished Honours thesis, University of Cape Town, Cape Town Solomon, F. (2006) ‘Developing an economic estimation methodology for assets lost in informal settlements due to fire’, unpublished Honours thesis, University of Cape Town, Cape Town

Fire Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town, South Africa 125 South African Cities Network (2006) State of the Cities Report 2006, South African Cities Network, Braamfontein, www.sacities.net/left/documents.stm accessed 25 November 2007 UCT/DiMP (University of Cape Town/Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme) (forthcoming) Weathering the Storm: Participatory Risk Assessment and Planning for Informal Settlements, University of Cape Town, Cape Town UN-HABITAT (2007) Tomorrow’s Crisis Today: The Humanitarian Impact of Urbanisation, United Nations, Nairobi

7

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Robert B. Kiunsi and John Lupala with Fred Lerise, Manoris Meshack, Benedict Malele, Ally Namangaya and Emanuel Mchome

INTRODUCTION This chapter focuses on analysis of disaster risks in unplanned settlements of Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. It identifies the various disaster risks, processes causing them and measures adopted by different stakeholders.

RISK ACCUMULATION Background on urbanization processes in Dar es Salaam As is the case for many African cities, Dar es Salaam has been experiencing rapid urbanization under conditions of poverty. Unlike industrialized countries where urbanization was fuelled by industrialization and economic expansion, in much of Africa city growth is propelled by rapid population increase and uncontrolled expansion with limited growth in the economy and its productive bases. African cities are characterized high unemployment and urban poverty, growth and expansion of informal settlements, deterioration of existing infrastructure and social services, proliferation of informal economic activities and growth of periurban or ‘rurban’ pursuits such as urban farming (UNCHS, 1996). This pattern has been called ‘urbanization under abject poverty’ by some authors (Lupala,

128 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 2002). By abject poverty we mean extremely poor living conditions accompanying limited opportunities for household income-generating activities and poor access to basic facilities and utilities such as potable water, sanitation, health and education.

Historical development of Dar es Salaam Before 1862, Dar es Salaam existed as a series of small fishing village settlements called Mzizima, Kunduchi, Msasani, Mjimwema and Mboamaji. In 1862, the Sultan of Zanzibar established it as a small port and trading centre. When the Germans took over East Africa in 1891 they shifted the capital from Bagamoyo to Dar es Salaam (Sutton, 1970). By then, the spatial extent of Dar es Salaam was limited to a 2km radius with a population of only 4000 inhabitants. The spatial extent remained more or less the same until 1914 when the British took over from the Germans. Both population growth and spatial expansion of the city were relatively slow. Exponential growth started immediately after independence (in 1961) as a result of abandonment of colonial policies that prohibited Africans from migrating to towns. Whereas the city population was recorded as 356,286 inhabitants in 1967, by 1978 the population had grown to 782,000 inhabitants and further to 1,360,850 by 1988. In 2002, the city population had reached 2,497,940 (see Figure 7.1). Dar es Salaam is the largest city in the country with a population six times larger than the second city Mwanza of 476,846 inhabitants (URT, 2003). Dar es Salaam, accommodates about 10 per cent of the total national population and slightly more than 40 per cent of the national urban population. However, due to lack of effective urban planning, about 75 per cent of the Dar es Salaam population resides in unplanned settlements, which lack essential municipal services. There is also uncoordinated densification in those settlements. Even 3,500,000 3,000,000

Inhabitants

2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1891 1894 1900 1913 1921 1931 1943 1945 1948 1952 1957 1963 1967 1978 1988 1992 2001

Source: Lupala (2002)

Figure 7.1 Population growth in Dar es Salaam, 1891–2001

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 129 Table 7.1 Inter-census annual average growth rates for Dar es Salaam Period Rate (%)

1948–1957

1957–1967

1967–1978

1978–1988

1988–2002

7.1

7.8

9.7

4.8

4.4

Source: Population Census Reports; Strategic Plan (1998)

though Dodoma was declared the National Capital in 1974, Dar es Salaam has continued to play a key role as the primate city and the centre of administration and industrial establishments. As such it is the final destination for most of the rural–urban immigrants in the country. The annual average growth rate increased from 7.1 to 7.8 per cent between 1948 and 1957 and further to 9.7 per cent for the period between 1967 and 1988. This is one of the highest growth rates in sub-Saharan African cities, even though diminishing trends have been noted in the periods 1978–1988 and 1988–2002 (see Table 7.1). The city’s spatial expansion has been estimated at an average annual rate of 7.2 per cent. For example, while the extent of the urbanized area of Dar es Salaam was only limited to a 2km radius in 1891 covering 122ha, in 1963 it reached 3081ha and 11,331ha in 1978. In 2001, the urbanized part of the city had expanded to 57,211ha, stretching to about 32km northwards, 28km westwards and 14km southwards. The south-eastern part is limited in terms of rapid spatial expansion due to the lack of a bridge across the ocean channel that separates this area with the other areas of the city (see Figure 7.2). The legal boundaries of Dar es Salaam coincide with those of the region (mkoa) of the same name, one of 26 primary sub-national administrative units in the country. However, the urbanized area has not yet reached the boundaries of the region. Therefore, there are still large pockets of undeveloped land, especially as one moves outwards on the four major roads radiating from the city centre. These are areas where informal land development has been rapidly taking place with limited guidance from the local authorities. The key players in managing these areas are the three municipalities of Ilala, Kinondoni and Temeke, which together constitute the city council. The council is responsible for management of cross-cutting issues such as trunk infrastructure and public transport, while municipalities are responsible for lower-level services such as construction of secondary and access roads, schools, health centres and dispensaries.

Urban form The dominant house form is the single-storey low-rise house. About 50 per cent of the city’s land area is occupied by informal settlements of this type. Density in informal settlements varies considerably between old consolidated and newly emerging informal settlements. About 50 per cent of the settlements have structures covering less than 42 per cent of the land surface and the typical floor area ratio is 0.41 (Lupala, 2002). The floor area ratio refers to the total floor space in

130 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

32 km Built-up areas 1945 Built-up areas 1967 Built-up areas 1978 Built-up areas 1992 Built-up areas 1998 10km

28 km

20 km

14 km

Source: Lupala (2002)

Figure 7.2 Spatial expansion of Dar es Salaam, 1945–1998 the built-up areas divided by the total land covered by the buildings. Based on this approach, settlements with multi-storey buildings have higher floor area ratios compared to those dominated with single-storey buildings. The latter pattern of urban land use is typically associated with under-utilization of land and infrastructure and contributes to city sprawl. As a consequence of this pattern, authorities can no longer provide services to the limits of the city. The poor are mostly affected as they have to spend more on transport costs to reach their respective workplaces and to access basic service areas. A study conducted in 2002 revealed that the poor in Dar es Salaam

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 131 were paying about 48 per cent of their monthly incomes for transport costs to reach the various livelihood areas in the city (Kombe and Kreibich, 2000). While in the 1960s almost all residents in Dar es Salaam were served with a piped water supply, in 1992, only 26 per cent had water supply on their plots. Many residents have been forced to search for alternative sources of water including surface and groundwater, which is not safe for drinking. Given that the majority of the residents (90 per cent) use pit latrines as the main sanitary system, most groundwater sources are polluted. The use of polluted groundwater subjects residents to water-borne diseases such as cholera, dysentery and typhoid. Only 5 per cent have connections to a sewerage system, 33 per cent are connected to an electricity supply, and only 2.3 per cent of the total developed land has acceptable road conditions (Kironde, 1994; Lupala, 2002).

Urban economic conditions The increasing cost of living and unemployment subjects many households to risks related to disease, crime and hunger. In the 1960s, the economic base of Dar es Salaam was largely the industrial sector and accounted for 32 per cent of total national industrial employment. Most of industrial establishments collapsed in the 1980s as a consequence of an earlier oil price crisis, the structural adjustment policies imposed by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the collapse of public sector-run enterprises. While in 1980 the industrial sector accounted for 25 per cent of the city’s regional product, in 1992 its gross regional product contribution had gone down to 14 per cent (URT, 1994). Implementation of structural adjustment policies also resulted in a massive lay-off of public sector employees. This economic collapse was paralleled by a rapid rise of informal activities and employment. By 1991, the informal sector was providing employment to 315,958 inhabitants accounting for 22 per cent of total jobs in Dar es Salaam (URT, 1994). This figure has increased in recent years. According to International Labour Organization (ILO) reports, new jobs created in the formal sector fell from 31,713 to 2882 per annum for the period 1982–1992 (ILO, 1999). Similar trends are shown in the period from 1992 to 2001. Comparing the 1992 and 2001 labour force statistics, it is evident that selfemployment mainly in the informal sector, including urban agriculture, in Tanzania is increasingly gaining ground among livelihood strategies of the urban residents (Lerise and Kyessi, 2003). As we shall see below, informal economic activity brings with it a variety of urban risks.

City administration The political administration of Dar es Salaam has five levels: 1

Dar es Salaam City Council, a metropolitan authority that oversees cross-

132 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

2

3 4 5

cutting issues for the whole metropolitan area with representative councillors from the three municipalities; the three municipalities of Temeke, Ilala and Kinondoni that are responsible for service provision, planning and management in their respective jurisdictional areas as provided in the Local Government (Urban Authorities) Act of 1982; the wards with the ward executive committees being their executive arms; the sub-ward (mtaa, plural: mitaa) with the mitaa committees serving as executive arms; finally, the Dar es Salaam Region is the political organ responsible for policy and programme coordination aspects representing the central government. As noted earlier, the metropolitan area still fits within this regional boundary.

Across these five levels, disaster risk reduction has yet to emerge as a key area of concern. With time, the managerial, financial and technical capacities of the all levels are decreasing. The main source of finance for the city council’s capital and current expenditure is allocated from the central government. However, the city council received only 50 per cent of its total financial requirement for the years 1992–2001 (Kyessi, 2002; Lupala, 2002), a pattern of underfunding that still persists. Similarly, the number of technical personnel (planners, valuers, surveyors, architects) for the three municipalities consistently falls short of actual requirements.

RISK ACCUMULATION PROCESSES IN DAR ES SALAAM Due to inadequately managed urbanization processes, most urban residents, especially those in unplanned and unserviced settlements, are exposed to a number of risks including those related to health (diseases, epidemics, injury, accidents, fire, food insecurity, lack of shelter), livelihood (unemployment, limited access to productive resources such as credit, land or space), social relations (crime, domestic violence, lack of adequate access to political processes) and environmental quality (pollution, land degradation and floods). The majority of urban dwellers in Tanzania are vulnerable because of the conditions in which they live and their inadequate coping strategies – the knowledge, resources and life skills available to them. Therefore, hazards such as floods, strong winds, social conflicts, epidemics, fire and motor and industrial accidents easily cause disasters (PMO and UCLAS, 2004).

Unguided settlement densification and land use Housing development takes place without guidance from the local urban authorities. Building may be authorized by grassroots community leaders, but these have limited knowledge of space requirements for public services and utilities.

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 133 The result is congested settlement layouts with limited space for provision of basic utility lines such as access roads, water pipes and pathways. Unguided densification and change of land use has led to consolidated compact settlements that inhibit upgrading efforts. During the 1970s, some unplanned settlements such as Manzese and Mtoni Tandika were upgraded by providing access roads, drainage channels, water supply and electricity. These efforts faded in the 1980s because of lack of funds, poor cost recovery and over-dependence on donor funding (in this case the World Bank). Density levels and densification processes in unplanned settlements are increasing at a very high rate (Lupala, 2002). High density is associated with limited outdoor space and minimal setbacks between buildings and thus undermines environmental qualities such as cross-ventilation and lighting. Change of use of plots and buildings in planned areas is increasing due to non-enforcement of land-use rules. Streets that were earlier planned for residential activities have been turned into commercial corridors. Various recreational grounds and residential buildings have also been developed into shops, guest houses and music halls within residential areas. The uncoordinated change of use has resulted in incompatible land-use activities locating close to each other.

oa d

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MSASANI BONDE LA MPUNGA

ad Ro

iv Un

Sinza Indian Ocean Manzese Mo

rog

oro

Roa

d

nd

Ma ela

Kariakoo

Ma

Kilw

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CHANG ’OMBE TOROLI

oad

Uh ur u

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VINGUNGUTI

Road

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ad re Ro Nyere

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3km

Figure 7.3 Location of the study sites

134 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa For instance in the Sinza area, garages, small-scale manufacturing, commercial activities and residential areas all mingle together (see Figure 7.3). This has resulted in overcrowded streets, lack of safety to pedestrians especially children, increased environmental risks such as air pollution, noise and high risk of fire accidents. In some planned areas such as in Kariakoo (see Figure 7.3), outdoor space and setbacks are extremely low or totally blocked, alleys between buildings are dark and side balconies are blocked. It is generally unsafe to walk or window shop on the congested streets of Kariakoo due to increased risks related to pickpocketing, daylight robbery and other minor crimes.

Deteriorating social services and public utilities Rapid population growth and diminishing managerial capacity of government have meant that services and public utilities are overburdened. Even though privatization of service provision in sectors such as public transport and solid waste collection has somewhat relieved the extreme pressures of the 1980s and 1990s, service levels are still too low. One of the major shortfalls of privatization has been inadequate control by the responsible authorities to ensure that the private sector provides the required services while it generates profit. Low service penetration and deteriorating quality have led to the accumulation of risk. Health risks increase because of the accumulation of uncollected refuse and piles of decaying waste. Schools are overcrowded and sanitary conditions are poor. In some schools, class sizes of up to 120 students have been reported as compared to the government norm of 45 students.

Decline in formal employment and proliferation of the informal sector The informal sector is inadequately regulated and poorly serviced. Many economic, social and health-related risks are associated with it. These include insecurity of premises, irregular income, insecurity of assets and lack of public financial support (investment capital, loans, etc.). Some informal sector activities have encroached onto road reserves, resulting in reduced road capacity and causing traffic accidents. Recreational grounds and areas reserved for community facilities such as schools, markets, churches and mosques have also become targets for informal sector activities.

Lack of security of tenure Most of the houses in informal settlements lack official titles to land, such as long-term leases. Access to formal land titles is limited due to the expensive and prolonged procedures required by government. As a result of development without official title to land, many houses in these settlements face the risk of demolition without compensation in the case of road extension, sewerage and

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 135 drainage works. Demolition of buildings with or without compensation renders tenants and property owners homeless and poor, thus increasing their level of vulnerability to other shocks.

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION The institution dealing with disaster management is the Disaster Management Department (DMD) in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). DMD is supported by sectoral ministries, region and district authorities who have the coordination roles in their respective areas, guided by the Disaster Management Act of 1990. Since its formation, DMD has been active in raising the awareness of local communities and NGOs concerning the importance of disaster risk reduction. Following a series of disasters from 1995 to 1999 including the El Niño rains that led to flooding in many areas in the country, the sinking of MV Bukoba ferry in Lake Victoria and the bombing of the US embassy in Dar es Salaam, disaster management activities were strengthened. New projects included the creation of the Disaster Management Training Centre (DMTC) at Ardhi University. The DMTC prepared manuals and conducted short courses for disaster management contact persons and trainers of trainers from ministries, administrative regions and districts. This programme also strengthened the capacity of DMD and the first participants included the Ministry of Health, Tanzania Red Cross Society and the Fire Brigade.

CASE STUDIES Methodology A participatory action research approach was applied in three communities in the city. One settlement from each of the three municipalities in Dar es Salaam was selected through purposive sampling (see Figure 7.3). Research was conducted in two phases. Phase one was devoted to preparation and fieldwork (July to October 2004). The first phase covered activities including the development of research instruments and the identification and contact with research partners in the field and the municipalities. Research partners included primary stakeholders – that is, members drawn from the communities as representatives. Partners were also drawn from the central government, municipalities, NGOs and CBOs as well as research and training institutions, who acted as secondary stakeholders. Other activities included documentation of risk accumulation processes through in-depth interviews, informal discussions, observations and focus group discussions. Each community was requested to nominate at least three contact persons who, together with the research team, constituted the coordination committee. The

136 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa project coordination committee met on a monthly basis. Members from the secondary stakeholders joined the monthly meeting depending on the issues discussed. Phase two lasted four months and focused on identifying potential community risk reduction initiatives. This was done through meetings that evaluated and prioritized specific risk reduction initiatives to be supported by the project. In addition, the identification of actors to collaborate with communities in the implementation of mitigation measures for risk reduction was carried out. There were no serious limitations in carrying out research as community members and local government officials were very willing to participate and contribute their time. However, the research project created unrealistic expectations on the part of the local communities in all three areas. The implementation of projects identified in phase two has not yet begun (over three years later). Many community members have been demoralized and consider the previous efforts to have been only of an academic nature. However, phase two for Msasani Bonde la Mpunga is expected to start in August 2008. In Vingunguti, there was a power struggle among NGOs and between one NGO and the local government concerning who should be the main contact person for the project. Some political differences among community members from the selected communities were noted, especially during the period of data collection, which happened to coincide with the election of local and national leaders. This created some confusion and meetings were postponed until the electoral session was completed.

Vingunguti unplanned settlement Vingunguti settlement is located in Ilala municipality. The settlement covers 32ha and has a total population of 69,000 people and about 2800 houses, built mostly in lowland areas with poor drainage. Typical houses in the area are built using cement blocks roofed with corrugated iron sheets. Housing density is relatively high at about 87 houses per hectare. The majority of the residents, about 53 per cent, are employed in the informal sector, where they are mostly engaged in petty trading, while 27 per cent earn livelihoods in the private sector, 13 per cent are active in the public sector and 7 per cent are unemployed (Meshack et al, 2006). The provision of services including water, supply roads and electricity is poor. Only a few people are connected to a piped water supply; the rest use shallow wells. Only one road is surfaced with tarmac. The rest are unsurfaced, narrow and are not passable during the rainy season. Most people use pit latrines as the main method for excreta disposal. Solid waste management in the area is very poor and it is common to find heaps of uncollected decomposing solid waste. Wastewater effluent from nearby industries is also deposited into the natural drainage channels passing through the settlement. Vingunguti has a local government (mtaa) and NGOs working for the socio-economic development of the area.

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 137 This case focused on disaster risks associated with unguided housing development including flooding, loss of houses due to a change of river course, pollution and disease.

Chang’ombe Toroli unplanned settlement Chang’ombe Toroli is an unplanned settlement located in Chang’ombe ward in Temeke municipality. It borders the Chang’ombe industrial area, Chang’ombe Road and the Tanzania Railways residential quarters. The settlement has a population of 8000 people or 2647 households living in 634 houses (2005 figures). It covers an area of 17ha. The settlement is characterized by highdensity housing conditions, limited vehicular accessibility and a poor drainage system. The settlement accommodates many carpentry workshops and furniture show spaces. Its proximity to the central business district of Dar es Salaam (about 3km away) makes it an attractive location for both carpentry-related industrial activities and housing for low-income people who have their livelihood activities located in the city centre. Chang’ombe Toroli settlement is prone to disaster risks from fire, respiratory and water-borne diseases, loss of property, traffic accidents and occupational health hazards.

Msasani Bonde la Mpunga planned and unplanned settlement Msasani Bonde la Mpunga is a mixed residential-commercial settlement located in Kinondoni municipality about 6km away from the city centre along the old Bagamoyo Road in a former wetland. It has an area of about 60ha. The residential areas are a mixture of very poor and medium housing structures, while the commercial areas are dominated by large and expensive buildings that are internationally funded. Due to its proximity to the city centre, Msasani Bonde la Mpunga has attracted expensive investments such as supermarkets, hotels, conference centres, office accommodation and cinema halls. It is therefore one of the fastest-growing settlements in the municipality despite being located in a wetland. Other contributing factors to the development of the area include its proximity to a referral private hospital and pre-existing modern shopping centres. The abutting settlement with low-cost housing structures is continuously being replaced by large commercial buildings. The Msasani Bonde la Mpunga case dealt with risks associated with the disregard for disaster risks in the urban planning process, including flooding, groundwater and surface water pollution. The new upmarket investments block the natural drainage lines that used to drain off storm water towards the Indian Ocean.

138 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

EMERGING ISSUES AND COPING STRATEGIES Unguided house construction in hazardous areas In all three cases, houses have been developed primarily in low-lying areas that were either wetlands or river courses. Blocking of river courses that drain storm water to the Indian Ocean in Msasani Bonde la Mpunga by affluent developers has culminated in flooding in the nearby settlements occupied by the poor households. Flooding also occurs in Vingunguti with severe effects on potable water and sanitation. Similar conditions prevail in Chang’ombe Toroli, which was developed in an area that was swampy.

Flooding Flooding occurs in all the three settlements. In Vingunguti settlement during the rainy season, a large part of the area is flooded including the houses and pit latrines. Flood water spreads human excreta from toilets and uncollected solid waste. Similarly in Msasani Bonde la Mpunga, water stagnates in the settlement making it unhealthy for human habitation during and after rainy seasons. The most seriously affected area of the settlement is the south-eastern and the eastern part of the Bonde la Mpunga depression, where low-income groups predominate. During the rainy season, flood water usually remains standing for more than two months. Stagnant water pools create good mosquito breeding, thus increasing the risk of malaria. Housing densification is a key factor. For example in the Vingunguti area, the number of dwellings increased from 270 in 1975 to 1683 in 2005 and the housing density from 4.1 to 25.2 houses per hectare. Similar trends were observed in Chang’ombe Toroli and Bonde la Mpunga. Before 1979, Bonde la Mpunga was mostly virgin wetland used for paddy farming. The 1979 Dar es Salaam master plan correctly designated the area as hazardous land for building. ‘Hazardous land’ was defined as having physical limitations for development activities including flood susceptibility, erosion, steep slopes associated with river valleys or other physical limitations. Years after the approval of the master plan, residential houses continued to increase in the area. In 1992, the city council together with the Ministry of Lands and Human Settlements Development prepared and approved a local subdivision plan for the area, officially turning the area from hazardous land to ‘residential land’. The Ministry of Lands and the city authorities saw fit to subdivide the area because it had become a prime development destination, especially for wealthy developers who were able to fill in the wetland for development of their structures. In addition the area was at that time not legally owned by any individuals due to its status as hazardous land. The city was thus able to transfer title to the wealthy developers. In the course of their economic calculations, the authorities turned a blind eye to the ecological function of this urban wetland as a water sink for the city.

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 139

Flood coping strategies A number of initiatives at household, community and local government levels and at different scales have been taken in the three settlements. Common initiatives include elevating pit latrines to avoid storm water flooding pit latrine sub-structures. To prevent houses from being flooded the plinth level of the external doorsteps leading into the house are usually raised. Alternatively, households that are financially well off raise the foundation of their houses to prevent flood water from doing damage. However, these initiatives make the streets even more flooded, thus preventing free movement of people. To overcome the problem of flooded streets, cement blocks or stones are arranged on flooded streets to make them passable. Children and the elderly and infirm find it difficulty to use these ad hoc walkways. Some individual households vacate or abandon their houses or rooms when the settlement is flooded. At the community level, residents seek assistance from the municipal council to minimize the flooding problem in their areas. For example Vingunguti residents have asked the municipal authority to provide pipes for culvert construction in the area. Ilala municipality committed itself to solving storm water problems by constructing a drainage system. Actions so far include surveying, designing, costing and constructing a lined open storm water drain near the Vingunguti Primary School. The central government is funding the implementation of the Community Infrastructure Upgrading Program (CIUP) in the city through loans from the World Bank, and Ilala municipal council is covered by this project. At Bonde la Mpunga, residents and property owners in the low-income area have organized themselves under the local government in the area and formed a committee to deal with flood issues. This committee is charged with the responsibility of seeking intervention from the municipal council to reduce the flood risks facing the settlement. Residents want the municipal authorities to coordinate efforts of the large-scale developers so that drainage channels are properly redesigned and expanded. The local communities also approached the media in order publicize their problems. This prompted politicians to make visits to the area and hold discussions with the residents with the view to finding a lasting solution. At the level of civil society, various NGOs and CBOs have been active, for example involved in the Vingunguti area are Chama Cha Maendeleo (CCM) (established in 1995), Chama Cha Uchumi (CCU) (established 1996) and Vingunguti Miembeni Development Association (VIMIDA) (established 2000). One of the general objectives of CCM was to sensitize community members to the need to address local environmental issues. CCM had a community development committee that was comprised of 12 members. In mobilizing resources, the committee used the office of their mtaa leader to seek assistance from adjacent industries. However, the initiative did not last long, leading to the collapse of the organization.

140 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa CCU was comprised of 280 households aiming to solve flooding problems through the construction of a drainage system in the area. This involved joint efforts by the local community, mtaa leadership and three nearby industries (BECCO, Fida Hussen and OKI Plastics). The CBO managed to construct 62m of unlined drainage channel, however, the channel was poorly constructed, leading water to stagnate along the drain, actually increasing the magnitude of the problem, as it became the breeding ground of mosquitoes and a dumping place for solid waste. VIMIDA took over where CCM and CCU had left off. It contacted experts from the then University College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS) who visited the area and made a preliminary design for a main drainage channel. The drainage system was later improved by the city council and is currently under further construction through CIUP. In general it can be said that efforts by these CBOs and NGOs in the area are fragmented and uncoordinated but have had some, though not large, impact in minimizing disaster risks. At Bonde la Mpunga, the large-scale investors tried to construct a storm water drainage channel. In fact, construction of drainage was among the development conditions set by the municipality. However, as there was no comprehensive study to establish the necessary size of drains, the works were not able deal with all the storm water. According to the residents and research observations in the settlement, the main drainage channel is too narrow and shallow. When it rains, water remains or drains towards the lower part of the settlement, which is occupied largely by low-income households.

Water pollution Surface water and groundwater pollution are a serious disaster risk for Vingunguti and Bonde la Mpunga settlements. In Vingunguti, the majority of the population depend on groundwater (deep and shallow wells) as their main source of water. The water is polluted, the main cause of this being toxins leached from an old and disused solid waste dump. Shallow wells are also polluted by the wastewater from traditional pit latrines and contaminated surface water. About 80 per cent of the total population depend on the traditional pit latrine. These are poorly constructed and are flooded during the rainy season. Commonly unlined, pit latrines in areas with a high water table also contribute to contamination of groundwater. Management of solid waste is also poor and contributes to contamination of surface water run off. The collection, storage, transportation and disposal of solid waste are all inadequate. Household waste is indiscriminately disposed of in open spaces. Some areas are inaccessible to collection lorries due to narrow streets. Thus there are heaps of uncollected waste that become breeding places for disease and vermin such as mosquitoes, flies, cockroaches and rats. Initiatives to control groundwater and surface water pollution are minimal. At the household level, some families do burn solid waste and boil drinking

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 141 water, and some pay for their solid waste to be collected by private companies. At the community and mtaa level, the local government declares special cleanliness days on which it burns heaps of uncollected waste. Many people do not pay the charges levied by the government for public waste collection, so these intermittent cleanliness days amount to a kind of amnesty. Ilala municipal council has allowed private solid waste collection groups using hand carts to collect waste from houses twice a week in the Vingunguti area and take it to a transfer station. The council, using its garbage collection lorries, collects the waste from the transfer stations and transports it to the city dump for final disposal. VIMIDA together with the local government are working to raise awareness of the dangers of surface water and groundwater pollution and possible remedies. They also identify and warn people who discharge wastewater from pit latrines during the rainy season.

Disease Malaria and water-borne diseases are among the ten leading causes of death in Tanzania (Ministry of Health, 2002). According to National Bureau of Statistics and Marco (2005) Malaria is still a major health concern in Tanzania, especially for pregnant women and children under five years of age. The national government Poverty and Human Development Report (URT, 2005) cites cholera as one of the leading diseases in coastal areas. In Dar es Salaam, cholera prevalence was 150.2 per 10,000 people. The case studies reflect some of the leading diseases found in Tanzania, especially those related to water. The most common diseases found were malaria, cholera, dysentery and diarrhoea. In Chang’ombe Toroli, acute respiratory diseases are common due to the dust from timber processing. Also in Chang’ombe Toroli, one finds pneumonia, skin infections, cardiovascular disease and bodily injuries. Outbreaks of cholera in both dry and rainy seasons are a testimony to the serious water management issues in all settlements, and especially in Vingunguti. In the dry season, widespread cholera is caused by the shortage of clean and safe water which forces people to resort to using polluted water from shallow wells. In the rainy season, cholera is due to the flooding problems already described. Table 7.2 shows the occurrences of cholera in Ilala municipality. One sees that Vingunguti settlement is ranked third. In general Table 7.2 shows that unplanned areas with high population densities and poor sanitary conditions and without piped water systems are more prone to cholera. These include Buguruni, Tabata and Vingunguti. Lower frequency of cholera is seen in planned areas such as Kariakoo and Mchikichini and Upanga Magharibi with piped water supply systems and in peri-urban areas such as Kipawa, Segerea and Chanika that still have low population densities Explanations for the prevalence of respiratory illness in Chang’ombe Toroli are partly found in the dust emanating from unorganized timber activities.

142 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Table 7.2 Number of cholera patients in Ilala municipality on 27 October 2003 Rank

Settlement

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Buguruni Tabata Vingunguti Ilala Kiwalani Ukonga Mchikichini Kariakoo Kivukoni Kipawa Segerea Chanika Jangwani Pugu Upanga Magharibi Kinyerezi Gerezani Total

Number of cholera patients 247 164 130 111 51 46 36 29 13 13 11 8 8 3 2 1 1 874

Source: Ilala Municipal Council Health Office

Workers in these activities conduct their business without dust protection masks. The proximity of the residential settlement to the industrial area of Chang’ombe exposes people to polluted air. In a workshop that was studied in the settlement, participants reported that it was common that each workshop unit had a worker who was suffering from a respiratory disease. Results from interviews with workshop workers in Toroli settlement also showed that out of 60 workers, 28 (48 per cent) had suffered from lung diseases caused by the dusty working environment. Data from Afford, a private dispensary in Chang’ombe Toroli settlement, are presented in Table 7.3 and reveal the pattern in the occurance of ten diseases. There are no government health services within the study area. Another hazard related to unregulated livelihood activities in Toroli settlement as reported by residents was hearing impairment. This was caused by the continuous noise that is usually endured while operating the woodworking machines in timber factories and welding machines. Lack of ear protection for the workers increases their vulnerability to this problem. A number of initiatives have been undertaken at different levels to contain disease outbreaks. At the household level, some families boil drinking water, install wire mesh to prevent mosquitoes from entering their houses and use mosquito nets. In addition, a number of households have constructed ventilated improved pit latrines and are covering the toilet hole to prevent free movement of flies when not in use. At the community level, not much is done to prevent disease. However, at the municipal level a number of activities are carried out

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 143 Table 7.3 Prevalence of top ten diseases in Chang’ombe, January–March 2006 Rank

Disease

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Malaria Minor surgery Acute respiratory infection Urinary tract infection Intestine infection Diarrhoea Pneumonia Skin infection Cardiovascular Asthma Total

Number of cases 1291 192 146 112 88 70 69 67 50 30 2115

Percentage 61.0 9.1 6.9 5.3 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.4 1.4 100.0

Source: Afford Dispensary in Chang’ombe Toroli, January–March 2006

including inspecting toilets and giving advice on how to clean and maintain them. Ilala municipal council, for example, conducted seminars and training workshops for local government and CBO leaders on how to keep the environment clean. In addition, the council conducts ad hoc seminars and provides training for food and water vendors on how to prepare and sell food in a clean manner. Civic organizations carry out a number of activities to try to minimize disease occurrence. For example, PLAN International had two initiatives at Vingunguti that were aimed at combating cholera and dysentery: rehabilitation of the Vingunguti government dispensary and construction of safe shallow wells, both in 1994.

Fire Fire is one of the hazards frequently affecting Chang’ombe Toroli settlement due to the use of electric machines without adequate precautions. Fire is less frequent in the other two settlements of Msasani and Vingunguti. Use of sawdust as a domestic cooking fuel is also a cause of fire in Chang’ombe Toroli. In the last ten years, three devastating fires have occurred. In 1996, a fire led to loss of property and loss of life. The accident was caused by poor wiring of electricity cables. A second fire disaster occurred in 2002 and began in one of the furniture-making workshops during the night. It caused loss of property – wood working machines, timber, furniture and tools. A third fire accident occurred in 2004, originating from one of the nearby industries. This disaster resulted in air pollution for the whole settlement of Toroli due to the heavy smoke that was emitted from the burning factory. Despite this history of fire and high fire risks, this settlement does not have even simple equipment such hand-held fire extinguishers. No workshop visited had any equipment for fire fighting, and nor did local government offices. The city fire brigade is located about 5km from the area, but it does not respond quickly to fire emergences due to the fact that they have only a few fire engines.

144 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa The municipal authorities have not taken initiatives to develop safety guidelines for avoiding fire risk. Construction guidelines for public buildings in Tanzania require that premises occupied or used by many people should be provided with such safety measures. These requirements are yet to be implemented in Chang’ombe Toroli settlement.

Traffic accidents According to a PMO and UCIAS report (2004), traffic accidents are among the top ten ranked hazards in Tanzania. The report also shows that coastal areas (including Dar es Salaam) have the second highest rate of traffic accidents after the Southern Highland zone of the country. An inventory of reported traffic accidents taken from two daily newspapers in Dar es Salaam for the year 2003 showed that there were a total of 832 accidents in Dar es Salaam in 2003 alone. These accidents led to 465 deaths and 1266 injuries. This study was conducted by UCLAS in 2004. At Chang’ombe Toroli settlement, completed furniture is stored along the edges of the main road. Small accidents are common in this area due to heavy foot and vehicular traffic. In June 2005, two people died in car accidents near the Sigara-Chang’ombe road junction. A speeding vehicle skidded along the road and crashed into an area where furniture selling was taking place. Respondents observed that unless efforts are taken to separate vehicular and pedestrian traffic, and to make provisions for the roadside furniture-selling activities, traffic accidents would increase. The municipality has recognized this problem and has put in place speed bumps close to the bus stops so as to force vehicles to reduce speed while approaching the area. However, no efforts have been made to reorganize the furniture-selling activities that have encroached road reserves.

Occupational health hazards The majority of carpenters in Toroli settlement have not attended any formal training on the use of carpentry machines, and also have no access to the basic protective gear required for machine operation. Some of the workers have sustained body injuries such as amputation of fingers and arms. This has resulted in lifelong injuries to the affected workers. This not only affects individuals who are operating the machines but also their families due to loss of income. In order to protect themselves from injuries, senior carpenters and workshop owners employ and provide on-job training to young casual workers for more risky activities such as sandpapering of timber. Workshop owners usually subcontract such tasks because they believe it is the finishing process that produces the finest wood dust that is easily inhaled and most dangerous. Therefore, the most vulnerable in this process are the poor and young causal workers who have few alternative sources of employment.

Building Disaster-Resilient Communities 145

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Large parts of urban Tanzania are unplanned and unregulated due to a number of factors. These include land policy, land tenure, physical planning procedures and the socio-economic conditions of the urban dwellers. Tanzania, like many other countries, has policies, laws and procedures for guiding urban development for both planned and unplanned areas and in recent years has developed policies, laws and institutions for dealing with disaster issues. However, the mainstreaming of disaster risk reduction into physical planning is absent. Planning itself is problematic. While there are comprehensive plans and guidelines for implementation, implementation is constrained by poor project management, inadequate understanding of disaster risk accumulation processes and outright malpractice by both planners and developers. As revealed in Msasani Bonde la Mpunga, rezoning and allocation of commercial plots was not instigated by local low-income inhabitants or small-scale developers, rather, by planners working at the behest of wealthy individuals with access to foreign capital. By contrast, disaster risk accumulation in settlements such as Chang’ombe Toroli and Vingunguti are driven by informal urbanization processes and not upmarket investment. In order to minimize hazards in urban areas, both in planned and unplanned settlements, disaster risk reduction measures should be part and parcel of the policies, laws and planning procedures. Once institutionalized, these measures must be consistently enforced. In all schemes for upgrading unplanned settlements, disaster risk reduction must become as common as the usual proposals for improving access to services such as roads, water supply, education and health facilities. Climate change may exacerbate the intensity of hazards in unplanned settlements in Tanzania. According to Paavola (2004), temperatures in Tanzania may increase by as much as 2–10°C by the year 2100. This could lead to either an increase or reduction in rainfall in different areas of the country. The National Adaptation Programme of Action predicts an increase in rainfall that may lead to increased occurrences of floods (Vice President’s Office, 2005).

REFERENCES ILO (International Labour Organization) (1999) Review of Labour and other Labour Related Laws with Emphasis on Promotion of Women’s Employment in the Context of SAP, Ministry of Labour and Youth Development of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam Kironde, J. M. L. (1994) ‘The evolution of land use structure of Dar es Salaam, 1890–1990: A study in the effects of land policy’, unpublished PhD thesis, University of Nairobi, Nairobi Kombe, W. and Kreibich, V. (2000) Formal Land Management in Tanzania, Springer Research Series No 29, Springer Verlag, Dortmund

146 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Kyessi, A. (2002) Community Participation in Urban Infrastructure Provision: Servicing Informal Settlements in Dar es Salaam, Springer Research Series No 33, Springer Verlag, Dortmund Lerise, F. and Kyessi, A. (2003) Trends of Urban Poverty in Tanzania, Research and Poverty Alleviation, REPOA Report, REPOA, Dar es Salaam Lupala, J. M. (2002) Peri-Urban Land Management for Rapid Urbanisation: The Case of Dar es Salaam, Springer Research Series No 32, Springer Verlag, Dortmund Lupala, J. M. (2002) Urban Types in Rapidly Urbanizing Cities: Analysis of Formal and Informal Settlements in Tanzania, KTH, Stockholm Meshack, M., Kiunsi, R., Lerise, F., Lupala, J., Mchome, E., Malele, B. and Namangaya, A. (2006) ‘Community initiative in managing urbanization and risk accumulation processes’, unpublished research report, UCLAS, Dar es Salaam Ministry of Health (2002) Health Statistics Abstract 2002. MOH, Health Information and Research Section, Policy and Planning Department, Dar es Salaam National Bureau of Statistics (2001) Household Budget Survey, Government Printers, Dar es Salaam National Bureau of Statistics (2002) Household Budget Survey, National Bureau of Statistics, Dar es Salaam National Bureau of Statistics and ORG Marco (2005) Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey, National Bureau of Statistics and ORG Marco, Dar es Salaam Paavola, J. (2004) Livelihood, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Morogoro Region, Tanzania, CSERGE working paper EDM 04-12, Centre for Social and Economic Research on Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich PMO and UCLAS (Prime Minister’s Office and University College of Land and Architectural Studies) (2004) ‘Disaster vulnerability assessment Phase II’, unpublished report, PMO, Dar es Salaam Sutton, J. G. (ed) (1970) ‘Dar es Salaam: A sketch of hundred years’, Theme issue, Tanzania Notes and Records, No 71 UNCHS (United Nations Centre for Human Settlements) (1996) An Urbanizing World, Global Report on Human Settlements, Oxford University Press, Oxford URT (United Republic of Tanzania) (1994) Dar es Salaam Regional Abstract, National Bureau of Statistics, Government Printers, Dar es Salaam URT (2003) National Population Census Reports, Government Printers, Dar es Salaam URT (2005) Poverty and Human Development Report, Mkuki and Nyota Publishers, Dar es Salaam Vice President’s Office (2005) National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), Dar es Salaam

8

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals: Flood Risk Reduction in Saint-Louis, Senegal

Khady Diagne and Abdoulaye Ndiaye

INTRODUCTION The impact of flood in West Africa and Senegal Africa and African cities are prone to many hazards. In addition, the consequences of global warming, climate change and a rise in sea level, combined with uncontrolled urbanization, are among the causes of increasingly frequent floods. These disasters jeopardize development and welfare in African nations including Senegal (Auran, various dates; GOS, 1999). Between 1990 and 2005, flooding in West and Central African countries claimed 1516 casualties. They break down as follows: 98 in Benin; 111 in Niger; 225 in Ghana and 676 in Nigeria (EM-DAT, 2008). In addition, flooding seriously affected 6,722,405 people, particularly in Senegal (577,269), Ghana (1,203,127) and Benin (1,973,196). The economic and social impact of flooding was evaluated as follows in the EM-DAT database for the hardest hit countries: US$108 million in Ghana; US$11 million in Niger; US$8 million in Benin; US$2 million in Nigeria and a huge US$439 million in Senegal.

148 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 100km

Se ne g

M AU R I TA N I A

al

Ri

ver

Saint-Louis

Thes Diourbel

DAKAR

S

E

N

E

G

A

L

Kaolack

M A L I

Tambacounda BANJUL

G A M B I A ive rG amb

R

Kolda

ia

Ziguinchor

G U I N E A - B I S S AU G U I N E A

Source: Authors

Figure 8.1 Location of Saint-Louis in Senegal

Disaster risk reduction: Senegal’s official approach In view of the grave risks and high cost of such hazards, worldwide a disaster risk reduction approach has led to the adoption of frameworks and strategies reaffirming the close links between disaster risk reduction and sustainable development, in particular the Hyogo 2005–2015 Declaration and Framework of Action: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, and the Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (ARSDRR) and subregional disaster risk reduction strategies. In addition, though not explicating targeting disaster risk reduction, this is implicit and required to meet the targets within the Millennium Development Declaration – the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (Pelling, 2003). The Millennium Declaration and the MDGs call on the international community to adopt a broader vision of development that sees achieving human development as an essential component of sustainable social and economic progress (UNDP, 2000). The MDGs directly set eight priority objectives, each of which is related directly or indirectly to disaster risks (DFID, 2005).

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 149 The Hyogo Declaration and Framework of Action, adopted by the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR), emphasizes the increasing frequency and toll of disaster events on human survival, dignity and especially on the livelihood sustainability of the poor and of development gains lost when infrastructure and investment in human capital are lost. WCDR sets forward a (non-binding) agenda for action to tackle disaster risks up to 2015 (UN-ISDR, 2005). With a view to achieving this goal, the Hyogo Framework of Action sets three priority objectives: 1

2

3

the more effective integration of disaster risk considerations into sustainable development policies, planning and programming at all levels, with a special emphasis on disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness and vulnerability reduction; the development and strengthening of institutions, mechanisms and capacities at all levels, in particular at the community level, that can systematically contribute to building resilience to hazards; the systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the design and implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery programmes in the reconstruction of affected communities.

Like the MDGs and the Hyogo Framework for Action, the ARSDRR and its sub-regional strategies are intended to promote sustainable development and the eradication of poverty by pursuing better identification and evaluation of disaster risks; improved management of disaster risk reduction capacities; greater public awareness of disaster risk reduction; incorporation of disaster risk reduction into emergence response management; and improved governance of bodies involved in disaster risk reduction (African Union, 2004, 2005). The governance frameworks required for disaster risk reduction give governments a key role through coordination and participation mechanisms. This requires the definition of policy, establishment of robust institutions, local authority capacity-building, and partnerships between numerous stakeholders, including civil society, NGOs and the private sector. In short, it requires participatory management of disaster risk reduction. In Senegal, the application of governance in the flood risk reduction field, the theme of this chapter, has led to a number of initiatives: •

•

the adoption of a national strategy for the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, designed to facilitate the inclusion of a climate change dimension in development policies; the creation of a national climate change committee;

150 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa •

the establishment of bodies for flood prevention and control, such as the National Long-Term Flood Management Commission, subsequently replaced by the National Flood Prevention and Control Cell.

Priority has been given to disaster risk reduction in Senegal’s poverty reduction strategy, on the same level as wealth creation, access to social services and good governance (GOS, 2005, 2006). This initiative is backed by a national disaster risk reduction programme including sectoral components for flood risk prevention and industrial accident risk prevention. In addition, local authorities have been encouraged to participate more in disaster risk reduction. In 1996, the national state transferred to these local bodies powers relating to regional development, urban planning, the environment and the construction, rehabilitation and maintenance of structures such as schools, stadiums and markets. Moreover, this transfer of powers was consolidated in 2008 by the government’s decision to transfer the funding allocated to them in the investment budget. This represents a transfer of means of implementing local projects, some of which will have an impact on disaster risk reduction.

Organization of the chapter Saint-Louis, the former national capital and a city rich in history, has high human vulnerability to flooding, despite the steps taken in recent years by public and private actors, civil society and NGOs. This chapter deals in particular with governance as it relates to flood risk reduction in Saint-Louis. The first section describes the accumulation of flood risk, while the second analyses risk reduction measures taken within the framework of the city’s development policy. The third section features a detailed study of four projects developed by the national state and the city, the University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar and the NGO Enda Tiers Monde (Enda TM). These projects differ in focus and scope. They concern, respectively, the construction of two flood protection facilities, the introduction of satellite image technology into flood risk prevention and efforts to deal with the city’s environmental problems by providing information and building awareness. The final section, which serves as a conclusion, asks whether it is possible, and under what conditions, to reduce the city’s vulnerability to flooding by 2015, the date set by the international community for achieving the MDGs and implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action.

RISK ACCUMULATION AND LOCAL GOVERNANCE Saint-Louis is the administrative capital of the region of Saint-Louis, known formerly as the River Region. Since 1990, the city has suffered recurrent flooding due to a combination of rainwater and peak flows of the Senegal River (POSL, various dates). The rise in river level can be traced to a combination of

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 151 factors. These include a rise in the level of the riverbed, which is used as a dumping site for household garbage; uncontrolled urban development that has led to the shrinkage of zones that can absorb the flood waters; and a water table that rises to ground level during the flooding period. Flooding is also triggered by water released from hydroelectric dams by the Senegal River Development Organization, which has flooded several villages and much farmland, especially on the right bank. Water releases have led to breaks in dikes, bridges and roads, cutting off villages located inside the river’s estuary. Released water reaches Saint-Louis. Flooding has a more general hazard context in the city of Saint-Louis. A continuum of risk exists that includes the danger of drowning in the river or sea, fire (markets, hotels, dance halls, housing), collapse of dilapidated buildings or infrastructure (housing, public and private edifices, bridges), tidal waves, various technological accidents and public health hazards related to poor sanitation. However, flooding constitutes the greatest risk facing the city.

Geographic location and urban structure The urban structure of Saint-Louis is determined by the city’s specific geographic location. It has four sectors (see Figure 8.2): •

• •

•

The Barbary Spit (Langue de Barbarie), a narrow strip of land 24km long and 250m wide, wedged between an armlet of the Senegal River and the Atlantic Ocean. The Ile de Saint-Louis (‘the Island’), the historical centre of the city, a nexus of administration, business, socio-cultural activities and tourism. Sor, the most continental part of the city. Originally, it included only the neighbourhoods of Tendjiguène, Balacoss and Ndiolofène, which were built during the colonial period. Its market attracts people from different parts of the city, which results in traffic problems on the Avenue de Gaulle and access to Faidherbe Bridge. The outskirts, a prime zone for urban expansion. Although this zone offers real opportunities for development from a spatial perspective, the space occupied is an incoherent, disjointed whole.

Historically the city of Saint-Louis developed by the water – on three islands isolated by arms of the Senegal River, their tributaries and the ocean. The omnipresence of water is the main characteristic of the site. The water table is shallow, and some low-lying areas are at altitudes of less than 2.5m above sea level. Because of this, Saint-Louis is exposed to upwellings of groundwater when water levels rise sharply, with development on reclaimed land being most at risk.

152 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Source: Authors

Figure 8.2 Aerial view of Saint-Louis

Population: Growth and distribution Saint-Louis had 180,000 inhabitants in 2002. The population is projected to reach 342,700 by 2020. The rate of natural growth for the period 1975–2000 was 4 per cent per annum in the latest census (POSL, 2005c). As in Senegal as a whole, the city’s population is quite young, with those under 20 years of age accounting for 51 per cent, as compared with 7 per cent for those over 60. Women make up 51 per cent of the total population. The inhabitants are housed on 14,300 surveyed lots, including both formal and informal settlement (POSL, 2005c). According an urban development planning survey, 60 per cent of Saint-Louis’ plots of land are authorized, with a relatively high proportion (38.5 per cent) of occupation being informal and unregistered. Saint-Louis has 17,969 households, of which nearly two-thirds live in structured working-class neighbourhoods (35.9 per cent) or irregular working-class areas (28.8 per cent). The remaining inhabitants live in the traditional neighbourhoods on the Barbary Spit (13.6 per cent), in medium-sized households. Population growth has been boosted by various construction projects that attracted workers who stayed on, such as the Diama dam and Gaston Berger University of Saint-Louis. The 1989 conflict between Senegal and Mauritania also led to a massive refugee inflow, while population growth is also affected by the migration from the countryside, which may be cyclical, especially during the dry season. The droughts of the 1970s and desertification in surrounding areas encouraged many farmers to migrate to Saint-Louis, leading people to settle in low-lying areas and alongside the river’s banks for farming, thereby preventing proper gravity-based water runoff and accelerating the process of ecosystem modification. In all, the population of Saint-Louis has more than tripled over the past 30 years. Consequently, adequate urban management has become a key challenge for the city. Planning is further constrained by to a shortage of land suitable for habitation.

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 153 The population of Saint-Louis will continue to grow and certain social categories, which are already penalized by low income, will become increasingly vulnerable to disasters and poverty. Moreover, poverty is the reason why, following episodes of drought or food crisis for example, many people are obliged to leave rural areas and settle in cities or cross national borders in search of work. Consequently, with a view to slowing such rural–urban migration, the government has taken a number of steps (POSL, 2005a,b). These include responding to the food crisis that developed in 2008 in order to induce those tempted to migrate to cities to remain on their land. The latest of these government initiatives was REVA )plan de retour vers l’agriculture, a ‘plan for a return to agriculture’), and the Grande Offensive Agricole pour la Nourriture et l’Abondance, a large-scale agriculture offensive to promote food production. Spontaneous and unregulated occupation of space has given rise to excessive population concentration. Population density varies throughout the city. The lion’s share of the inhabitants live in working-class areas (63.6 per cent) and traditional neighbourhoods (16.5 per cent). There is one new development – an upmarket residential area that now contains 7 per cent of the city’s inhabitants, edging out the Island’s historic colonial quarters (6.3 per cent). The most densely populated areas are Pikine II and Diamagueme (593 inhabitants/ha) and Guet Ndar (755/ha). Average density for the rest of the city comes to 370/ha (POSL, 2005c). As there is no possibility of expanding densely populated zones, where the inhabitants even occupy traffic lanes, making it very difficult for emergency vehicles, authorities have given thought to restructuring these districts or relocating the population (see Figure 8.3).

Flooding, economic conditions and social relations Although income distribution varies greatly in Saint-Louis, salaries remain relatively low regardless of place of residence and are consistently below the minimum wage (Salaire Minimum Inter Garanti). The informal economy and fishing are the two sectors that employ some 60 per cent of the working population. Districts in the Barbary Spit such as Guet Ndar, where many fishermen live, are often very exposed to flooding from rain, the river or the ocean. Such flooding has not only affected housing but has also cut off the inhabitants from basic infrastructure that was built when these districts began to develop (schools, markets, health centres), the hotel complexes (a potential source of employment) and Thiaka Ndiay cemetery, adjacent to Goxumbacc district. The cemetery has an important cultural value. As it began to be flooded, rather than digging up the bodies of the deceased and reburying them at another site, the authorities opted to pump out stagnant water and to build dikes to protect against flooding. In fact, this solution was applied not only in Saint-Louis but also in Rufisque, for example, a city located some 20km from Dakar, where certain districts were hit by tidal waves, with waves breaking over the cemeteries of Diokoul and Thiawlène.

154 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

Goxumbacc

Ile de S t-Louis

Tendijiguene

Darou

Khor

Diamaguene

Ndiolofène

Sor Leona

Atlantic Ocean

S e n e g a l

Barbary Spit

R i v e r

Eaux-Claires Diaminar Medina Course Pikine I Pikine II

Pikine III

Canal Railway Dike Road with revetment Bridge 1km

Source: Based on www.saintlouisdusenegal.com/geographiedesaintlouis.php#1

Figure 8.3 Flood-prone areas of Saint-Louis When flooding occurs, the administrative authorities and community leaders house the flood-stricken families in those schools that escape flood damage, a situation that could well jeopardize efforts to achieve MDG two, aimed at ‘ensuring primary education for all’. This is why the authorities often concentrate on pumping out flood waters and disinfecting those houses temporarily abandoned by their occupants as well as flooded schools.

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 155

Women’s involvement in prevention activities Women are the most vulnerable to disasters because they must continue to provide food and look after the family under difficult post-disaster conditions. In addition, they are excluded from decision-making, not involved in implementing flood prevention activities, not sufficiently informed and, above all, left without access to resources. This situation makes implementation of community-based flood control and sanitation projects difficult because women’s skills and labour are needed. Indeed, some prevention activities carried out by state and municipal authorities have had to be discontinued because women did not get involved. Consequently, in order to put an end to the exclusion of women from disaster risk reduction and facilitate efforts to achieve MDG three, ‘promoting gender equality and the empowerment of women’, the government has taken various steps, including the establishment of a Ministry of the Family, Women Entrepreneurs and Micro-Finance. As far as poverty reduction strategies are concerned, microfinance is a tool giving the vulnerable, especially women, improved access to means to carry out income-generating activities. It can empower women by helping them become economic agents who are less vulnerable to disasters and who play a more important part in disaster risk reduction.

Health and environmental sanitation problems Sanitation is a major problem in Saint-Louis. Fewer than 10 per cent of all homes in greater Saint-Louis are connected to the sewerage network. During flooding or the rainy season, serious sanitation problems arise because water in the drains flows back inland rather than running off into the river, particularly in some densely populated low-lying areas. Climate change plus the combination of garbage build-up, standing water and high population density favour the spread of a wide variety of insects, including the vectors of malaria. Deterioration in living conditions is also linked to the behaviour of inhabitants who often dump their garbage and wastewater near their homes or into the river or the ocean. Only 30 per cent of households have access to organized solid waste collection systems. In the districts of the Barbary Spit and Pikine I, one finds water pollution due to the reuse of untreated wastewater for irrigation, particularly for market gardening. Other causes of sanitation problems include occasional overflows of wastewater into the streets, stagnant rainwater in lowlying areas, contamination of the subsoil through seepage from wastewater near spillover sites and poorly designed local sanitation systems. Women and children in direct contact with their environments are the most vulnerable to such contamination, along with the inhabitants of overcrowded districts. Public health education has been targeted as a strategy to reduce risk and contribute to the meeting of MDGs for child mortality (MDG four), to combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases (MDG six) and achieve environ-

156 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa mental sustainability (MDG seven). Local authorities and national state technical services have supported dialogue and awareness-raising, but little improvement in health indicators has been seen. In response, the state has acted to enforce regulations in cases of persistent breaches of hygiene and health standards. Ironically, though, having to abandon the dialogic mode of communication for enforcement has undermined attempts to build a co-learning conversation.

FLOOD-RELATED DISASTER RISK AND RISK REDUCTION MEASURES

Various stakeholders have attempted to address the flood hazard in Saint-Louis. Flood protection works have been built (see Figure 8.3) and the sanitation network has been maintained and expanded. An urban development policy has been designed and an institutional framework has been introduced for brainstorming and exchanging views on flood prevention and management. Also a system has been set up to provide flood warnings and handle environment problems linked to hydroelectric dams.

Building flood protection facilities Two steps have been taken in this respect: a dike-road has been built in Khor and Pikine districts, and the embankments on the Island have been raised and expanded (see Figure 8.3). However, the fact that these dikes show cracks, are eroded in places and could well break during peak water loads has led government bodies and the municipal authorities to build makeshift dikes using sand bags, which cannot hold up to flooding over the long term.

Servicing and expanding the sanitation network As sanitation is an essential component of the everyday management of cities, an intervention programme for comprehensive integrated waste management was worked out in 1999. It focuses on the National Sanitation Office expanding the sewerage system and maintaining the network before every rainy season. In addition, cooperation among the NGO Enda TM, the National Sanitation Office and the Regional Water Service has led to improved sanitation management and in particular to proper treatment and better water quality (Enda Rup, 2005). However, the beneficial impact of these initiatives has been lessened by the extremely precarious socio-economic conditions of the inhabitants of the basins and slums that to date are unserved by the sanitation network.

Residents’ urban development expectations The inhabitants of the flood-prone districts of Saint-Louis, who are primarily fishermen, expect the state and the municipal authorities to take more extensive

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 157 flood reduction steps and to improve their living conditions by setting up sanitation facilities designed to cope with the number of inhabitants and protect basic existing infrastructures from flooding. They also want dikes to be built to protect housing and infrastructure exposed to the risk of flooding, tidal waves and coastal erosion. Finally, they expect the authorities to ensure that if inhabitants of flood-prone zones do have to relocate permanently, they will have access to fully serviced plots of land, for example in the new zone prepared in Ngallèle near Khor district, where new essential infrastructure such as schools, dispensaries and markets are to be set up. If this component is included in the urban development programme, inhabitants will be more likely to accept relocation to sites that have been fully prepared for building. For example, in Pikine district, geomorphological and topographical conditions make it very difficult to control flooding and, in addition, there is a deficiency of sanitation facilities (dilapidated and far too small in number to serve the present population). However, it should be noted that new, more suitable basic facilities such as piping and pumping stations can only be installed once restructuring starts. Indeed, it makes more sense to install such facilities when restructuring is underway and in the new fully serviced zones that will be subdivided into housing plots, rather in Pikine district as it stands. However, research has made clear that, as far as restructuring and regularization of land occupation is concerned, some families will only agree to move if they are convinced that they will not lose their place of residence and have to face the same problems all over again at the relocation sites. What is more, they ask two questions. First, why did the municipal authorities fail to take timely measures to prevent uncontrolled occupancy of zones not suitable for building in the first place? Second, why not improve their living conditions where they already live, rather than making them move? The inhabitants express such concerns because they do not feel fully involved in the design and implementation of the restructuring programmes and because they fear that they will not have access to the plots of land or housing built after restructuring because they do not earn enough to purchase fully serviced housing or plots, which will not be given away.

Framework for exchanging views on flood prevention A regional long-term flood management commission, the Commission Régionale de Gestion Prévisionnelle des Inondations (CRGPI), comprising representatives of state and municipal bodies was set up to monitor progress made towards installing the flood protection facilities, such as increasing pumping capacity, raising awareness of hygiene-related measures to observe before and after the rainy season, organizing social assistance for flood victims, building makeshift dikes with sand bags and so on. In 2005, CRGPI took bold measures to protect against rain and peak flows, to the tune of US$8,288,700:

158 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

BOX 8.1 LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE IN DAKAR: THE JAXAAY PLAN Of relevance to Saint-Louis is an experiment launched in 2006 by the Senegalese government in the Dakar area, the Jaxaay Plan (GOS, 2005–2006). It involved use of raised sites used for rehousing a large proportion of the former inhabitants of floodprone zones. Implementation of the Jaxaay Plan was preceded by broad-based consultations between the administrative authorities, community officials, neighbourhood leaders, decentralized state services and representatives of the target districts in order to explain the plan to the inhabitants and secure their support by establishing a climate of mutual trust – a prerequisite for dialogue. The flood victims identified by survey were briefed on all actions undertaken, in addition to receiving information and awareness-raising provided through meetings and working sessions organized by both the prefectures and by the districts targeted by the operations (ProVention, 2008). Following this process of dialogue, homes situated in flood-prone areas were demolished, social housing was provided to the former inhabitants, socio-economic infrastructure was set up, and the zones freed up were turned into artificial ponds, lakes and parks. Financing for the first phase of the Jaxaay Plan for the construction of housing projects (some US$104 million) came partly from national funds and partly from the funds initially earmarked for the holding of legislative elections, which the government decided to postpone because of natural disasters. However, this decision led to strong protests from a coalition of opposition political parties and civil society organizations. The Jaxaay Plan experiment in Guédiawaye and Pikine in the Dakar area symbolizes a new vision, and could be broadened to include other cities such as Saint-Louis if the evaluation results are conclusive and positive.

• • • •

construction of flood protection facilities and sanitation facilities (US$6,628,600); maintenance and stabilization work (US$1,600,100); procurement of capital goods (motor-driven pumps) (US$30,000); research (US$30,000).

However, apart from the purchase of motor-driven pumps, sewage treatment and the installation of pumping stations, most of these measures have yet to be implemented (by August 2008). State and municipal authorities are therefore endeavouring, through bilateral and decentralized cooperation arrangements, to secure funding for projects and operations that have not yet been carried out.

Flood warning system and management of environmental problems linked to hydroelectric dams In cooperation with the regional water service, the Senegal River commission has set up a system for monitoring river level increase in order to determine when to release water from hydroelectric dams. Although the runoff canal dug on the Barbary Spit has mitigated the impact of water releases from hydroelec-

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 159 tric dams, it has led to the intrusion of large quantities of seawater into residential and crop-growing areas located around the city. The spread of invasive aquatic plants such as water lettuce (Pistia stratiotes), Typha and Salvinia molesta has reduced the amount of cropland, wrought environmental havoc and decimated livestock, killing scores of small ruminants. Steps have been taken by the governments of Mali, Mauritania and Senegal, together with the Office of the Senegal River High Commissioner, to prevent environmental dangers stemming from the operation of dams, such as water-borne diseases and the spread of harmful plant species.

FOUR CASE STUDIES OF LOCAL GOVERNANCE APPLIED TO FLOOD RISK REDUCTION IN SAINT-LOUIS Peak flow protection facilities The Khor dike-road The dike-road was built following the unprecedented flood of 1994, which required the implementation of the emergency evacuation response plan. Even though the new installation protects the city to a certain extent from peak flows, it increases flood risk for the outskirts. Indeed, water diverted by the dike has flooded some districts of greater Saint-Louis, such as Khor and the nearby villages of Maka Toube, Gandiole and Leybar, which have no flood protection facilities. Also, cracks in the dike have required repairs that have not prevented spillovers in districts that the dike was supposed to protect, underscoring the need for preventive maintenance to avoid even bigger cracks. Even though it was initially intended to serve as a bypass road for heavy trucks travelling to other towns in the region, the dike, which is composed of laterite soil (muram), has not yet been asphalted. As a result, heavy trucks cannot use it to transport goods and products produced by the industrial units located in the area. In addition, some people have built houses a few metres from the dike, despite the danger of flooding and accidents.

The Barbary Spit runoff canal 2003 was marked by abundant rainfall in the Senegal River basin. This brought early large-scale flooding. Following field research, a decision was taken by government to dig a runoff canal in the zone situated 7km downstream from Saint-Louis, with a view to mitigating flooding impact. The breach, dug during the night of 3 to 4 October 2003 as an emergency measure, was initially 100m long, 4m wide and 1.5m deep. However, it rapidly widened from 4 to 200m on 6 October 2003, following a very strong ebb tide, and lengthened from 100 to 329m by 23 October 2004. What is more, when rough seas hit, the south face of the canal was subjected to further erosion while the north face underwent sedimentation, widening the runoff canal to 450m.

160 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Even though digging the canal has helped reduce the risk of flooding from peak flows, serious problems have emerged owing to the erosion of the immediate surroundings of the canal, the impact of salt water on the water table, for example in the zone of Gandiolé, and the risk of shipwreck for fishermen using the canal to set out to sea. It might be argued that the emergency justified by the forecast of large-scale flooding did not leave the authorities enough time to take all of the necessary precautions before opening the breach, such as consulting the inhabitants and conducting an environmental impact assessment. However, this episode sparked a fierce debate, and a committee for monitoring the installations was set up under the authority of the governor of the region, with a view to limiting the collateral damage caused by the opening of the breach.

Introducing modern technology into flood management The CORUS/GESCAN (Coopération pour la Recherche Universitaire et Scientifique/Gestion des Catastrophes Naturelles par Télédétection et Systeme d’Information Géographique) project to use space technology for disaster management in Saint-Louis concerns on-site data collection, communication and exchange at national, regional and international scientific meetings. The project revolves around preparation of geographical information systems (GIS) for flood management (UCAD, no date). The strategy used is based on the establishment of a multidisciplinary team of teachers, researchers and students, close cooperation with a network of partners in possession of useful information and with expertise in natural disaster management as well as the involvement of local actors. In terms of outcomes, accurate mapping of the timing and extent of the annual flood of the Senegal River should make it possible to monitor the impact of flooding on inhabitants, buildings and infrastructure as well as evaluate the potential for flood-recession cultivation. In addition, GIS can help decisionmakers before, during and after a disaster with flood monitoring and production of vulnerability and risk maps. GIS can also help grasp the impact of flooding on low-lying land in order to better understand the role of flood-aggravating factors and provide data to be entered into hydrological models.

Raising inhabitants’ risk awareness and improving living conditions The NGO Enda TM has for some years been implementing local development activities designed to improve the living conditions of people in poor urban districts. Since 1991, it has developed technological and organizational approaches to environment problems by encouraging neighbourhood management of wastewater and household solid waste, building local capacity and so on. The project described here was not designed to build flood production infrastructure. Rather, its primary goal was to develop awareness-raising and training strategies, for both communities and local authorities, with a view to encouraging changes in behaviour.

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 161 Methodology The methodology used by Enda TM consisted of: • • • •

identifying and concentrating on vulnerable groups and communities; building community capacity via disaster risk reduction tools; establishing a network for the exchange of experience between communities; documenting local knowledge with regard to awareness-raising and mapping flood-prone zones, and to this end, Enda TM worked with the Institute of Earth Sciences of the University of Dakar.

Implementation The inhabitants of Saint-Louis were consulted on 13 and 14 April 2004 on governance relating to flooding problems. The primary aim of the meeting was to launch a programme for increasing awareness of the relationships among urbanization, environmental change and disaster risk accumulation. The facilitators, Enda TM, focused on two main themes. First, the technical issues of mapping high-risk zones, building drainage systems, dredging the river and restructuring housing. Second, information, education and awareness-raising. Enda TM set up a coordinating committee that brought together the various actors: municipal authorities, decentralized consultation committees, inhabitants, the Community Development Agency, the regional technical services, community organizations and other NGOs. To launch the programme, Enda TM, the municipal authorities and Community Development Agency organized a workshop on 15 March 2005. The purpose was to ensure greater involvement by the various actors within the framework of a coordinated process. The broader context for this work was a forum called Processus d’Amélioration Durable de l’Environnement (PADE) that had been meeting to explore solutions to problems that are beyond the skills or capacities of the community per se. Activities Project activities covered a wide range of tasks: • • • • •

taking photographs of flooded zones, aimed at better understanding the problems inhabitants face during the rainy season; preparation of educational posters and a CD. organization of key interviews before, during and after the rainy season; awareness-raising activities in certain districts such as Diamaguène, Bango, Léona, Diaminar, Eaux Claires and Balacos; the organization of open-air conferences.

Open-air community conferences clarified concepts such as natural risks, natural disasters, climate change, poverty and development. They also briefed participants on the African Urban Risk Analysis Network (AURAN) and on future

162 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Table 8.1 Problems identified and solutions suggested Problems identified

Suggested solutions

River salinization

Dam and dike construction

Capillary upwelling from water table

Watertight cesspools

Faecal contamination

Sanitation projects

Pathogenic contamination

Water disinfection

Population displacement

Rehousing

Dermatosis

Compliance with hygiene standards

Malaria

Use of treated mosquito nets

Diarrhoea

Respect for hygiene rules

Enda TM activities, as well as providing details on the preliminary programme goals. At the close of the open-air conference, some participants objected to river pumping and negative practices such as the excavation of sand, as well as damage done to facilities designed to manage rainwater through the dumping of household garbage. A final important activity was capacity-building for steering committee members. The committee’s role was to evaluate the activities set out in the plan of action and discuss what remained to be done. The committee requested training sessions designed to assist them in shaping powerful messages to change behaviour. The discussions that took place during the committee meetings benefited from active input from representatives of the inhabitants, working in a participatory process. Representatives included those from Pikine district, who formed a local flood prevention and control committee. Meeting participants endeavoured to identify a number of problems that affect the city and to find solutions (see Table 8.1). In addition, during the committee’s feedback sessions, Koranic experts, among others, severely criticized the unsanitary behaviour of inhabitants who often dump the contents of their septic tanks anywhere during the rainy season, and condemned other unhealthy practices, such as dumping liquid waste in the streets and water courses, thereby aggravating the effect of the rise in the water level. They stressed the good habits of ancestors with regard to education and respect for living conditions. Anecdotal evidence from remarks participants made at feedback sessions suggest that the inhabitants became more and more aware of the importance of protecting their environment in order to live in a healthy milieu. For example, many families used their household solid waste to build dikes during the rainy season. Through talk sessions and theatre plays, the steering committee showed them the detrimental effect of this practice. During the feedback sessions, these families let the committee know that they had stopped this practice.

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 163

Lessons learned from the four case studies A look at the four projects described here suggests the following: •

•

•

•

•

•

There has been a tacit division of labour between the various flood risk reduction actors in Saint-Louis. State and municipal services have focused on carrying out large-scale works such as dikes, the Barbary Spit runoff canal and sewerage installations that require considerable financial means. Other actors such as the University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar and Enda TM, have focused on medium-sized projects for which it is much easier to secure the necessary funding. The projects analysed have a common goal – reducing the city’s vulnerability to flooding. Consequently, these projects must not be viewed as mutually exclusive initiatives but rather as complementary practices, even though the principles underlying governance can be applied at different levels from one project to another. The actors concerned have not always coordinated their efforts when designing and implementing the various projects. This is no doubt due to the fact that there is no suitable framework for coordination allowing all of the actors to pool their activities. So far the body set up to facilitate coordination (CRGPI) has not succeeded. A prerequisite for involving all actors in flood risk reduction is the introduction of a unifying framework for coordination such as a flood risk reduction platform. Such a framework for organizing integrated, participatory and coordinated disaster risk reduction would have to link the state (conventionally thought of as a main actor in disaster risk reduction) and institutions that also bear responsibility in this field. These include decentralized bodies, private sector organizations, NGOs and researchers. In addition, even though the state has heretofore consistently thought of itself as the main actor in the disaster risk reduction field, given the complex, multidimensional nature of risks, civil society organizations and NGOs must be given more power. Such a division not only of labour but of power, is foreseen in the Hyogo Framework of Action mentioned at the beginning of this chapter. Genuine synergy must be created when designing and implementing disaster risk reduction programmes and projects, in order to avoid dispersion or duplication of efforts and ensure optimum utilization of funds mobilized. The additional responsibilities entrusted to local authorities have led to a decision to transfer to the local authorities financial credits earmarked in the consolidated national investment budget, allowing the local authorities not only to carry out large-scale projects but also support local projects designed by the inhabitants. This measure was supposed to come into force from 2008; however, by August of that year the central government had not trans-

164 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa ferred any funds to Saint-Louis. 3 of the 12 provinces had received some devolved funding but only for the health and education sectors. Thus one must still wait to see if the hope is fulfilled that decentralization can meaningfully address urban problems. If the national government follows through on its decision and provides Saint-Louis with funding that can be used for urban flood prevention and urban restructuring and resettlement, the city’s decentralized bodies will no longer be limited to managing relief operations targeting disaster victims, the main focus of their interventions to date; rather, they should be able to enter a field where they have yet to leave their mark: disaster risk reduction.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Long-term approach: Prerequisites for the success of urban development projects As a result of lighter rainfall recorded in Saint-Louis between 2004 and 2007, and to some extent the various initiatives described above, the scope of flooding has lessened over the past few years. However, this respite is likely to be temporary, hence the need to monitor the implementation of more robust flood risk reduction measures, in particular the restructuring of certain districts. All sorts of difficulties have delayed the application of an urban development programmes that can lead to temporary or permanent rehousing of the inhabitants, once the latter have been consulted. However, the central and municipal authorities responsible for implementing these programmes must make sure that transferring inhabitants does not simply mean transferring problems from one place to another. They must ensure that these inhabitants enjoy better living conditions in the new sites, so that those who are the most vulnerable to flood risk cannot take this as an excuse to refuse to move to the new sites that have been prepared. Any viable urban restructuring project must take into consideration the following measures and among others: •

•

•

Establish a platform for dialogue with the inhabitants, who must be fully engaged with project design, execution and follow-up, through their representatives on the project steering committee. Provide the construction of basic infrastructure such as markets, schools, dispensaries, places of workshop, playgrounds, socio-educational centres, security (constabulary) and emergency posts (fire fighters) in urban development. Include in the project the construction, if necessary, of such works as dikes, flood protection walls, drainage and sewerage networks (piping, pumping stations, stagnant water collection ponds), supply systems for electricity and

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 165

•

•

• •

drinking water, and the introduction of a system for collecting household solid waste and street cleaning. Identify homes in high-risk areas where relocation can be beneficial. Relocation must proceed only after consulting with owners and renters including those without legal rights; and introduce a transparent and equitable procedure for compensating owners whose homes may be demolished and for allocating fully serviced plots or new housing units. Any replacement plots should be identified in consultation with those scheduled for relocation and be designed with wide goals of integrated urban planning (for example by minimizing the need to travel to work or school). Relocation rarely succeeds in replicating the economic and social support mechanisms of the poor and should only be considered as a last resort. Redevelop the freed-up flood-prone areas for flood-resistant land uses – parks, artificial lakes or playgrounds in order to avoid their reoccupation by others. Secure national and outside funding to implement the different phases of the urban development project. Establish an independent audit system to ensure that no corruption creeps into the process of spending the money allocated to urban restructuring.

There is a need to create a climate of greater trust between the central and local authorities and the inhabitants who are supposed to benefit from the urban development projects. This is the key to the success of these programmes, which are designed for the inhabitants and require their support for implementation. Unfortunately, the four case studies do not demonstrate great progress yet in the direction of building trust. While there is some tolerance or even enthusiasm for dialogue with citizens in flood-prone areas, in the end we have seen that the city reserves the right to use force to implement sanitary and flood control improvements. The citizens know this. The iron fist remains under the velvet glove in view during open-air conferences. In addition, the behaviourism dominating awareness campaigns does not delve deeply enough into the root causes of unsanitary behaviour or reluctance on the part of some to relocate. What economic causes are there? Is it sufficient simply to exhort people to ‘behave differently’ without understanding the causes of that behaviour?1

Compensatory flood risk reduction measures and the MDGs With a view to further reducing the vulnerability of Saint-Louis to natural hazards such as flooding and to poverty by 2015 within the context of the MDGs, the following recommendations are made: •

Make it a priority to include flood risk reduction in the policies, strategies and programmes defined by the central and municipal authorities, and set up

166 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

•

• • • •

•

a local flood risk reduction platform to include all stakeholders and actors, as discussed above. Draw up a multi-year integrated flood risk reduction programme by including a flood risk reduction dimension in programmes and projects for environmental management, town and country planning, and construction of infrastructure, taking the governance and climate change dimensions into consideration in these programmes. Evaluate and monitor flood risk, reduce underlying risk factors and set up an early warning system. Involve NGOs, the private sectors, development partners, local media and education and research systems in the process. Develop a flood risk reduction culture at all levels, through training, information and awareness-raising programmes. Hold regular consultations with the members of the community, in particular women, the elderly and young people, who are the most vulnerable to flooding. Incorporate a disaster risk reduction dimension into the management of emergency situations and encourage communities to get more involved in relief and assistance operations through expansion of the Senegalese Red Cross community volunteer system.

NOTE 1 This last paragraph was inserted editorially (by Wisner) after a long series of email consultations with the authors, in particular, Abdoulaye Ndiaye. However, the editor should bear any blame officialdom may wish to dispense for what he judges to be an appropriately vehement critique.

REFERENCES African Union (2004) African Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, African Union, Pretoria, www.unisdr.org/africa/af-hfa/docs/africa-regional-strategy.pdf accessed 28 July 2008 African Union (2005) New Partnership for Africa’s Development, African Union, Pretoria, www.nepad.org/2005/files/inbrief.php and www.uneca.org/nepad/ accessed 28 July 2008 AURAN (various dates) Reports of the African Urban Risk Analysis Network, ProVention Consortium, Geneva DFID (Department for International Development) (2005) Disaster Risk Reduction: A Development Concern, DFID, London EM-DAT (2008) International Emergency Database, Centre for the Epidemiology of Disaster, Louvain, www.emdat.be/ accessed 14 May 2008 Enda (no date) Project proposals and project data base files, Enda TM and Enda Rup, Dakar

History, Governance and the Millennium Development Goals 167 Enda Rup (2005) Process for Sustainable Environmental Improvement (PADE), Enda Rup, Dakar GOS (Government of Senegal) (1999) documents on the National Strategy for the Implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Ministry of the Environment and Nature Protection, Dakar (October) GOS (2005) documents for the Accelerated Growth Strategy, Ministry of the Economy and Finance, Dakar GOS (2005–2006) Jaxaay Plan, Ministry for Urbanism and Construction, Dakar, www.environnement.gouv.sn accessed 22 July 2008 GOS (2006) National Poverty Reduction Strategy Document 2006–2010, Ministry of the Economy and Finance, Dakar Pelling, M. (2003) ‘Disaster risk and development planning: The case for integration’, International Development Planning Review, vol 25, no 4, ppi–ix ProVention Consortium (2008) Reducing the Risks of Natural Disasters in West and Central Africa: Local Prospects, ProVention Consortium, Geneva POSL (Province of Saint-Louis) (2005a) Masterplan, Province of Saint-Louis, Saint Louis POSL (2005b) Regional Territorial Development Plan, Province of Saint-Louis, Saint-Louis POSL (2005c) Saint-Louis Urban Development Plan, Province of Saint-Louis, Saint-Louis POSL (various dates) Reports of the Regional Flood Prevention and Control Commission, Province of Saint-Louis and Regional Division of Hydraulics, Saint-Louis UCAD (University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar) (no date) CORUS/GESCAN, UDAC and Enda Rup, Dakar UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) (2000) Millennium Declaration and Millennium Development Goals. UNDP, New York, www.undp.org/mdg/ accessed 30 July 2008 UN-ISDR (United Nations Inter-Agency Secretariat for the International Disaster Prevention Strategy) (2005) Hyogo Framework for Action: 2005–2015, UN-ISDR, Geneva, www.unisdr.org/wcdr/intergover/official-doc/L-docs/Hyogo-framework-for-actionenglish.pdf accessed 30 July 2008

9

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria

Djillali Benouar and Yamina Ait Meziane

INTRODUCTION The objective of this chapter is to provide an overview of the accumulation of risk in an old and rapidly growing primate city, Algiers, with particular attention to seismic risk. The chapter is subdivided in four main parts: 1

2 3 4

discussion of risk accumulation illustrating the urbanization process of the city of Algiers, the history of disaster in the city, and the pattern of urban development that led to the increase of vulnerability and risk; prior attempts at the reduction of disaster risk, including approaches to earthquake disaster; a detailed case study of seismic risk in the city of Algiers; and conclusions and recommendations of relevance to the reduction of urban risk in Algiers and more widely.

Algeria is a major country in the Mediterranean basin, located on the northern boundary of the African tectonic plate, which is in collision with the Eurasian plate causing seismic activity. Algeria is located in a moderate seismic activity zone, and its northern part has experienced numerous destructive earthquakes. So far in this century, the Boumerdes earthquake of 2003 caused greatest loss of life and property damage.

170 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

RISK ACCUMULATION Urbanization of Algiers Rapid urbanization, population increases, the development of critical engineering works, industrialization and the construction of modern types of buildings, and the concentration of population in hazardous urban locations are matters of growing concern. They are likely to contribute to heavier loss of life and to increase the economic losses in future disaster events. Pushed by a high demographic growth rate and by an influx of migration towards the cities, the Algiers region has grown significantly over recent decades. The heavy demand on housing combined with a lack of regulatory oversight has resulted in disparate and often uncontrolled urbanization, significantly increasing vulnerability and thus risk. The average population density of Algiers is about 600 inhabitants/ha and the rate of annual population growth is approximately 2.8 per cent. The most recent disasters to affect Algiers are the huge flash floods of 10 November 2001 that hit Bab El Oued (a populous district of Algiers) and other regions of the country, and the strong earthquake (Magnitude 6.8) of 21 May 2003 that affected the highly populated region of Boumerdes and Algiers in the central part of the country and that resulted in many deaths and more than US$3 billion in losses. Algiers and its surroundings communities have a combined population of approximately 3 million (see Figure 9.1). It is the intellectual, social, political and economic centre of the country. In recent years disaster risks have increased due to overcrowding, poor land-use planning and construction, inadequate infrastructure and services, and environmental degradation. The present pace and patterns of rural–urban migration and unplanned urbanization are causing increased population densities in Algeria’s urban centres, particularly Algiers. Such areas are prime locations of increasing vulnerability. This situation has led the public and the government alike to question the seismic hazard and risk of the city. In this context of growing risk and political concern, decision-makers need adequate information on the likely intensity of the disasters cities will face if they are to reduce disaster vulnerability. To study the vulnerability of the city of Algiers, a representative district – Bab El Oued – was chosen. The selection of the district was based on: (1) geographical situation, (2) density of population, (3) availability of the data, (4) architectural homogeneity of the constructions and (5) the most representative district of the old part of the city of Algiers. Figure 9.2 shows the position of Bab El Oued within Greater Algiers and the high density of the area can also be clearly seen. The zone encompassing Bab El Oued (site of the flash flood in 2001) is overcrowded, with 750 inhabitants/ha and a density of housing units of 120/ha. Its urban situation includes narrow streets and a topography that blocks evacua-

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 171 M e d i t e r r a n e a n

S e a

El Marsa

Bab El Oued

ALGIERS Moretti

A

L

Boufarik

G

E

R

I

A

Larba

Source: Farsi and Benouar (2004)

Figure 9.1 The location of Algiers tion in several directions. Access is limited to the north and east by the Mediterranean Sea and to the west and south by hills. The urban development of this part of the city had no land-use planning, nor regulation of construction. It is an uncontrolled settlement on steep slopes and in stream beds or gullies (oueds). Vulnerability is compounded by critical infrastructure (roads, drainage and sewerage, drinking water and electricity networks) that were designed more than 50 years ago for a much smaller population. A geotechnical map of the Algiers region developed as part of a microzonation study (CPVA, 1840–1962; CGS, 1998) shows that Bab El Oued is built on deposits of unstable fill, slope debris and quarry waste of between 6 and 11m in thickness (see Figure 9.3). The site takes the form of an irregular natural basin. Its topography falls into two parts separated by a contour line: a low part and a high part (CNERU, 2002). Its growth is the result of a long process that superimposes natural, historical, functional and administrative features. Modern day Algiers is the product of a long historical process (Lespes, 1930; Deluz, 1988; Malverti and Picard, 1989; Petruccioli, 1989) with three distinct phases. The first is represented by the fahs or houses outside the old town wall (before 1854), a period marked by the layout of the basic urban fabric. From 1846–1854 administrative structures were also developed. The second phase witnessed the development of suburbs (1881–1915) in concentric expansions on the hills surrounding the old town core. During this period, the expansion of the city reached the heights of Telemly. The third phase

172 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa M e d i t e r r a n e a n

10km

S e a

El Marsa Ral Hamidou Bologhine ibn Zibi Bains Romains Bab Oued Bab ElelOued Ain Benian Bouzabeah Bordi el Bahri Ain Taya Benimes Sous Alger Alger med El Biab Haraoua ALGIERS Cheraga Ben Aknoun Mohammed Bordi el Kiffan Iel y Brahim El Mouradia Hamma Anassers Hydrabir El Madania Husseindey Beghaia Staoueli Rouiba El Achour El Magharia Mohammadia Bib Mouradrai Ouled Fayei Rouba Bach Dierrah Beb Bezouar Iraeria Bourouba Xouidanta Bir Khadem El Harrach Zeralda

Baba Hassen

Disr Ksenina Xaoula

Bahmania

Khraissia Mahelma

Louera

Babaki

Bibiqouia Iassala el Merija

Oueled Chebel

M I T I D J A

Sidi Moussa

P L A I N

Oued Xmad Dab el Beida Les Eucalyptus

Population density (persons per square km) 30,001–100,000 20,001–30,000 10,001–20,000 5001–10,000 3001–5000 2001–3000 1001–2000 751–1000 501–750 460–500

Source: www.aldjazair.net/images_wilayas/alger_carte.jpg

Figure 9.2 Bab El Oued district, Algiers (1915–present), during which Bab El Oued developed, has been one of infill and localized high-density development producing small plots of newer buildings. In the contemporary period, urban development has broadly followed the topography of the underlying landscape. The design of subdivisions has followed a geometrical criterion in the relationship between street width and building height (Hautecoeur, 1960). The plots are regular with dimensions of 20–25m by 30–40m (Petruccioli, 1989). The morphological irregularities of the environment are absorbed by small triangular plots. According to drawings found in the city hall of Algiers (CPVA, 1840–1962), the urban district was constructed in its totality between 1870 and 1954. The research reported on here was based on a two-stage sampling process where first the district and then the building design for study were identified. From the 515 technical drawings inspected, buildings with stone load-bearing walls represented more than 70 per cent, of which five-storey buildings were most common. The structures in Bab El Oued show great architectural homogeneity, with more than 50 per cent having stone load-bearing walls. The majority of buildings have floors raised using arches. Many buildings also have basements and accessible terraces. Reinforced concrete constructions using column beams and floors made of reinforced concrete slabs first made their appearance in this district in 1920. Some mixed structures also exist, as do buildings that have undergone extensions. Mixed structures for example may have

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 173

Source: Urbanis (1998)

Figure 9.3 Bab El Oued street pattern taken from microzonation exercise map load-bearing walls with cast iron columns filled with a cement mortar and walls of stone masonry with column-beam systems. For detailed analysis, a single building form was identified. Selection was made through statistical analysis of the 515 drawing files to identify a representative structure of the building stock in the district of Bab El Oued. This led to the choice of a structure built in 1904. This type of structure typically has six storeys, including a basement and an accessible terrace. Its bearing structure is made of stone masonry walls with a thickness varying from 50 centimetres (cm) (top) to 80cm (bottom). Its dimensions in plan are 18.30m long and 16.60m wide and its total height is 22.9m. Its foundations consist of footings of about 10–20 cm larger than that of the walls in the first storey.

174 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

The risk context of Algiers Algiers is confronted by earthquakes, floods and landslides, as well as industrial pollution in four industrial zones, atmospheric pollution (from road traffic, industries and waste dumps), solid waste pollution, water pollution, marine pollution, soil pollution, degradation of forests and green spaces and geological risks (Benouar, 2002a). The topography, the waterfront location and the ancient neighbourhoods make it difficult to effect radical engineering solutions to most of its problems. In the last two decades, the city of Algiers and its surroundings have seen rapid growth in residential as well as in the industrial zones with environmental degradation and pollution from many sources. This is a product of informal (unregulated) settlement, a lack of integration of disaster risk reduction into urban development and the exclusion of civil society from participation in decisions affecting city management. There is no disaster risk reduction strategy integrated into urban planning for prevention, mitigation or preparedness, and civil society is not well enough organized to lobby for disaster risk reduction to be implemented by local authorities. Existing civil society organizations with interests in environmental management are government funded and play a complementary role determined by the authorities.

Industrial pollution Industrial activity constitutes a significant source of pollution. Greater Algiers represents one of the largest industrial concentrations in the country. There are approximately 735 public and private industrial units in the Wilaya (administrative unit) of Algiers, that is to say 7.2 per cent of the national total number (estimated at 10,200 units), of which 5242 are located on the coast. Polluting industrial activity is concentrated around the periphery of Algiers, mainly in the east, in the industrial zones of Gué de Constantine (8km from the city centre), El Harrach (11km distant), Oued Smar (15km away) and Rouiba-Réghaia (27km to the east). The most polluting units in and around the city of Algiers are paper mills and factories producing batteries, oils and soaps, yeasts, detergents, heavy metals, pharmaceutical products, fertilizers and petroleum products (gas, gasoline, asphalt).

Air pollution The principal sources of air pollution in Algiers are very intense road traffic, industrial units sited in the city or its peripheral industrial zones, and the combustion of solid waste at the public waste management facility at Oued Smar. Algiers has approximately 560,000 vehicles of all categories and an average daily traffic flow of 1500–2000 vehicles/hour. This represents a quarter of the national automobile fleet. Vehicle emissions approximately consist of CO2 (15 per cent), CO (35 per cent), NO (35 per cent), unburnt hydrocarbon residues (10

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 175 per cent) and SO2 (5 per cent). A quantity of 180 tonnes of lead/year is emitted in the streets of the capital at a rate of 0.5g of lead/litre of gasoline for the vehicles, that is to say an annual average of 3.8mg/m3 (an average higher than that of the capitals of the other countries). The annual average recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), as a standard of quality of the air not to be exceeded, ranges between 0.5 and 1mg/m3, whereas lead concentration in the agglomeration of Algiers is about 2.01mg/m3 (Aoudia, 1991). Industrial sources of air pollution are varied and dispersed across the city in hotspots of pollution. For example, in Oued Smar polluting industries include a cable-making factory that emits dust charged with lead, a paint factory that emits gas dust charged with asbestos and lead, and a battery plant that emits lead oxide dust. In the harbour zone, a cooking oil factory emits fumes with nauseous odours. An oil refinery at Baraki (12km from the centre of Algiers) releases hydrocarbon gases. Tobacco processing units at Bab El Oued and El Hamma (both located within the centre of Algiers) emit harmful fumes from the use of fuel. Just one detailed case is a cement factory at Rais Hamidou that emits 30 tonnes of cement dust per day charged with combustion gas, NO, CO2 and CO (the standard ranges are between 15 and 250 tonnes/km2/year) (DDAHA, 1990). This cement factory, sited in the heart of an urban zone (6km west of the centre of Algiers), unquestionably constitutes a significant harmful effect on the health of residents and the whole environment in the vicinity. Producing 750 tonnes of cement per day, this cement factory emits fine particles, made up mainly of limestone, which generate respiratory diseases. The threshold of 1000g of dust per 100m2/month, determined by a model of dispersion as a norm, is largely exceeded at a radius of 3km (INGECO, 1997). Unfortunately, statistics on respiratory disease in the city are not available.

Solid waste pollution The public solid waste dump site at Oued Smar releases nauseous fumes, CH4, CO2 and NH3 from the combustion of household refuse from Algiers and its surroundings as well as solid waste from the industrial zones. This pollution is visible at Oued Smar, El Harrach, Bab Ezzouar, Hamiz, Dar El Beida and Eucalyptus. Naturally, the government is implementing some measures to reduce and regulate emission by installing filters in various factories that contribute to pollution. Also, environmental legislation exists but unfortunately is seldom enforced. Because of the recentness of the transition from a socialist regime where everything was controlled by the authorities, to a free market system where civil society including the private sector has a stake in city management, there is no tradition of citizen involvement in protecting the environment except in really extreme cases, such as the public dump of Oued Smar where neighbouring inhabitants have protested on several occasions.

176 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa The atmospheric pollution caused by the public waste dump at Oued Smar has already been discussed. This site collects waste from the Wilaya of Algiers. The initial extent of the dump was 10ha but today it has reached 37.5ha. It is located 13km from the centre of Algiers on impermeable clay soil. The dump has reached a very advanced degree of saturation. Mounds of stored waste exceed 6m in height. A city Engineering and Design Department study estimated that 4000 tonnes/day of waste arrives, including 1600 tonnes/day of domestic waste (Kaoula, 1996). That is equivalent to approximately 1 million tonnes/year, coming from a region that encompasses Algiers, Boumerdes and Tipaza. In Algiers, public services find it difficult to collect all household refuse because of the large quantities involved, so waste sometimes accumulates in the streets. Unofficial/informal waste dumps have also developed where inhabitants deposit their waste without paying any attention to the impact on the environment. A lack of information, awareness and of respect for the law all combine to allow citizens to dump their solid waste more or less anywhere – especially in isolated places. It is estimated that about 1408 tonnes of waste are generated in central Algiers each day (ANAT, 1996). More than 2500 tonnes/day are produced by all the Wilaya of Algiers, that is to say more than 910,000 tonnes/year. Industrial facilities contribute daily more than 2000 tonnes of diverse and unregulated waste. Of particular danger to public health and the environment are asbestos, acid, cyanide and phosphorus. Waste from slaughterhouses is also sent directly into the public dump of Oued Smar (Rouidi, 1995; Sellali, 1995). There is little up-to-date data on solid waste. The most recent data, collected by IEA (1997) showed that the annual total of solid waste is composed of: • • • • • • •

domestic waste (657,000 tonnes/year); industrial waste (930,000 tonnes/year); waste from businesses and public administration (paper, cardboard, etc.) (90,000 tonnes/year); market waste (50,000 tonnes/year); medical waste (syringes, bandages, etc.) (3900 tonnes/year); trade waste from commercial activities, services, car wash products, waste oil from tune-ups, etc. (80,000 tonnes/year); toxic waste (30,000 tonnes/year).

Water pollution The pollution resulting from solid waste includes contamination of most of the groundwater networks underlying the city. Surface water pollution is caused mainly by the deterioration of sewerage systems and inadequate treatment of effluents poured in the natural gullies (oued) that cross the urban region. Although the city of Algiers and its surroundings have a complete primary,

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 177 secondary and tertiary sewerage system, not all the wastewater is treated. There are three old water treatment plants but unfortunately they do not function permanently because of breakdowns. The problem is compounded by a general insufficiency of water resources and by the fact that surrounding cities pour their sewer effluent into the sea, either directly or by the means of Oued El Harrach. The total volume of the waste water poured in the Oued El Harrach is approximately 57,000m3/day (IEA, 1997). This ends up, mostly untreated, in the coastal waters of the Mediterranean Sea. The water table of the Mitidja Plain is the main water aquifer for the region (see Figure 9.2). It is prone to many forms of contamination from pesticides, nitrate fertilizers, the sewage that infiltrates into the water table, and nitrates that originate in the catchment basin of Oued El Harrach. Pollution of the water table by hydrocarbons is also a serious problem since it spreads to surrounding fields. Most wells and bore holes analysed present a very high degree of pollution, showing levels of hydrocarbons (10mg/litre) that exceed agreed safety limits for water intended for human consumption (Bruchet, 1985). Discharge of domestic and industrial wastewater without treatment also threatens the water table, coastal ecology and public health. This is especially – when discharge occurs where there are no permanent oueds or where flow is low – causing pollutants to build up locally. There are no statistics on water-borne diseases available.

Marine pollution The bay of Algiers covers a water area of 184ha and is polluted from urban and industrial sources. Most of the cities in the Wilaya and industrial facilities established on the coast of the bay of Algiers pour their wastewater into the sea directly or indirectly via streams (quads), without preliminary processing. Algiers harbour has 25 outlets for urban and industrial waste water, with oil and grease coming from the harbour maintenance workshops, the sewage waters of Hamma, the hospital of Mustapha Bacha, the cooking oil factories, the pasta production unit, oil company and electricity generation plant, in addition to emptying of ballast water by tankers and other ships either within the harbour or at sea (Abdelouaheb and Sadoun, 1996; Urbanis, 1998).

Soil pollution The pollution of the soil also has its origin in industrial and agricultural activities. The massive use of the artificial fertilizers, the use of certain organic soil conditioners and the systematic use of pesticides result in a very significant increase in agricultural outputs. Unfortunately this rise in productivity is accompanied by an increase in the heavy metal loading of soils. Analysis of soils carried out on the Mitidja Plain shows a nitrate content of between 50 and 250mg/litre, whereas the standard set by WHO is 45mg/litre (DVAHA, 1990; Abdelouaheb and Sadoun, 1996; ANAT, 1996 ).

178 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

Deforestation The forests of the Wilaya of Algiers cover a surface of 633ha including 37 recreational forests but have recently deteriorated (Melha, 2001). The principal causes of deterioration of the forests are: insect attack, fires, atmospheric pollution from industrial activity (for example the case of the cement factory at Rais Hamidou that devastated the forest of Bainem), neglect of forests in land-use decisions, unregulated urbanization, and the proliferation of informal settlements. Land use in and around the city is managed by the local authorities, but under strong pressure from rural migrants, local authorities accept what they say are ‘temporary’ settlements, including those in hazardous zones or in forests around the urban area. This is state-owned land but little is done to constrain settlement in ecologically sensitive or environmentally hazardous areas – or to limit harm to people and nature once informal settlement has begun.

Floods Rapid urbanization is a major factor in the increase of floods. Flash floods are a growing concern due to extensive surfacing with concrete that absorbs little water but forces rapid surface flow, the decline of open spaces that can absorb water, engineering works that divert river flows and a weak city drainage system (neglected and poorly maintained). Housing located on river banks or near the delta is most exposed to risk. A flood and mudflow in Algiers on 10 November 2001 caused the loss of 712 lives, with an additional 116 listed as missing, 350 injured, and 1800 housing units, 56 schools, scores of bridges, roads and other public works damaged. One million cubic metres of mud accumulated up to 10m deep in the streets of Bab El Oued. More than 350 vehicles (cars, trucks and buses) with passengers were buried under the mud. An estimate of the cost was US$250 million (Benouar, 2002b). The main causes of this flood disaster can be summarized as follows. Bab El Oued (‘Door of the River’ in Arabic) was built between two catchments where people have seriously damaged the forest cover and built informal settlements. Between the two catchments, in the valley, there is an old road constructed in the 1940s on the top of a well-designed flood evacuation system. Unfortunately because of lack of maintenance, the system could not handle the quantity of water and debris flow coming from the catchments and thus everything flowed on the road toward the city.

Landslides There is a growing amount of badly constructed housing built on or below steep slopes, on cliffs, or at river mouths of mountain valleys in the Greater Algiers region. Landslides have occurred with or without triggering by earthquakes. During the last Algiers flood and mudflow of 10 November 2001, several landslide cases provoked by heavy rain were recorded within Algiers and its surroundings (Benouar, 2002b).

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 179

Traffic accidents For the year 2005, road traffic accidents caused 3711 deaths and injured 58,082 in 39,233 accidents nationwide in Algeria. The number of road traffic accidents was reduced in 2005 by about 15 per cent compared to 2004. The rate of severe traffic accidents had also diminished from 10 deaths per 100 accidents to 9 deaths per 100 accidents. Overall, the number of accidents diminished by about 11 per cent, the number of deaths by 15 per cent and that of injured by 0.25 per cent (www.algerie-dz.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-20550.html).

Earthquakes The earthquake catalogue for the Wilaya of Algiers goes back to 1365. The building stock of the capital Algiers is highly vulnerable to earthquake loads and thus seismic risk management is urgently needed if the government wants to avoid tragic shocks (Ait Meziane et al, 2004). The following section and the Annex to this chapter provide an overview of earthquake risk and risk reduction and demonstrate this challenge with a detailed case study.

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK AND ITS REDUCTION Background to earthquake risk and its reduction The region of Algiers-Boumerdes and its surroundings have historically been affected by moderate to large earthquakes, including the great earthquake of 1716 that destroyed the city of Algiers and caused more than 20,000 fatalities. In recent history the most important event was on 21 May 2003 when a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck 10km offshore of the coastal city of Zemmouri in the province of Boumerdes, about 60km east of Algiers, killing 2300 people and causing extensive damage to structures and industries. The Boumerdes earthquake shocked the Algerian people by the extent of its human and financial losses of approximately US$3 billion. Yet, the earthquake should not have been a surprise – neither its occurrence, nor its impact. The coastal region of Algeria and particularly its central section is known to be part of an active tectonic structure. The Boumerdes earthquake intensified interest in instituting earthquake risk reduction measures to protect the population, livelihoods and the infrastructure of Algeria and in particular of Algiers. There exists a body of scientific and technical knowledge about the seismicity and historical earthquakes in the vicinity of Algiers, as well as studies regarding the vulnerability of urban structures and institutions to future earthquakes. The government has begun a number of initiatives including educational campaigns (mainly aimed at schools), improvement of national emergency management systems and construction control mechanisms. It has also commissioned several scientific and risk studies for Algiers and its region.

180 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa

BOX 9.1 MAJOR MILESTONES OF INCREASING ALGERIAN EARTHQUAKE RISK AWARENESS • •

• • •

•

•

1981: Appearance of the first edition of the Algerian building seismic code (RPA 81). 1982: Meeting of the Arab ministers of construction in which they recommended a programme for the evaluation and reduction of seismic risk in the Arab countries – Programme for Assessment and Mitigation of Earthquake Risk in the Arab Region (PAMERAR). 1985: The Algerian parliament adopted Law 85-231 of 25 August 1985, which established disaster relief and civil defence organizations. 1985: Appearance of the first recommendations for strengthening, reinforcement and repair of damaged earthquake constructions (CGS, 1985). 1985: The Centre National de Recherche Appliquée en Génie Parasismique (National Centre for Applied Research in Earthquake Engineering, CGS) was established with the cooperation of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations Distaster Relief Organization (UNDRO), UNDP and the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD). 1900–1990: Review and analysis of the seismicity of Algeria and adjacent regions during the 20th century, leading to a seismic hazard assessment of Algeria and adjacent region based on historical earthquakes. 1994: Publication of the Maghreb earthquake catalogue for the period 1900–1990.

Algeria has a centralized public sector with a highly bureaucratic administration. The decision-making process is centralized in the hands of a few policy-makers and bureaucrats who hold enormous power, benefit from the status quo and have little incentive to change. Little authority and few resources are provided to local authorities and institutions. There is no tradition in the country of community involvement or civil society movements. Further, institutions (both governmental and non-governmental) are poorly trained, have limited capacity and provide few incentives for personal initiative. The flow of information within institutions is tightly controlled as information is generally equated with social and political power. Cross-organizational and cross-sectoral initiatives are neither part of the bureaucratic culture nor part of civil society traditions.

Timeline of growing earthquake risk awareness The 1980 El-Asnam earthquake created awareness in the government and civil society alike but for a short time only. It was, however, sufficient to generate a rapid increase of interest in seismic risk mitigation. Following the earthquake, numerous measures were taken to reduce the seismic risk in Algeria, the most important are presented in Box 9.1 (Benouar, 1999). The two more recent major disasters – the Bab El Oued flash flood and Bourmerdes earthquake have undoubtedly contributed to new awareness and a new impulse for programmes and actions including the government updating and strengthening the national policy and the programme of action and also the

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 181 legal and regulatory framework. The Algerian parliament adopted on 25 December 2004 the ‘Law related to major risks reduction and management in the framework of sustainable development’. This law requires the establishment of a National Delegation for Major Risks. Unfortunately, that National Delegation has not yet been established.

Detailed analysis of urban earthquake risk The complete analysis of the standard representative building in the district of Bab El Oued focused on load-bearing wall constructions made up of stone masonry without links between walls. It showed that the design of the structure is in accordance with the basic criteria recommended by the Algerian seismic code (RPA 99 /22) (readers interested in the technical details of the analysis should see the Annex). The results of this analysis allowed the construction of vulnerability functions relating the rate of damage to representative buildings given a certain rate of ground motion acceleration. These functions show that the total collapse of masonry constructions occurs for seismic loads of between 14%g and 18%g (g is acceleration produced by the Earth’s gravity that is equal to 980cm/s2). Calculations were done for two values of mortar resistance. Damage starts to appear from 7%g and 8%g approximately (≈20 per cent of damage) and is comparable to that obtained by other authors. The results obtained by research on unreinforced masonry stone wall piers and on complete structures, tested on shaking tables, led to a limit of the acceleration for constructions built with this type of material at about 17%g, which thus confirms the results obtained in this study.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS General conclusions and recommendations In a country that is as disaster-prone as Algeria, it is of crucial importance to have a well-established and well-regulated disaster risk reduction management strategy and action programme at the national level. This enables the government to avoid undue crisis management when future emergencies occur. It is also of crucial importance, again at the macro-level, to integrate disaster risk reduction management in all its facets into government’s mainstream policies and plans for urban development. To fulfil these goals, it is very much recommended that Algeria establish a national disaster risk reduction management organization that would have two objectives. First, to prepare the national disaster risk reduction management strategy and action programme. Second, to create a sustainable cadre of disaster risk reduction management staff at all levels and promote institutional and public awareness of disasters, their effects and likely relief activities. This should

182 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa include the establishment of a permanent integrated data collection system to gather information relevant to disaster risk reduction management in all its aspects. Establishment of an effective national data collection system will require extensive work. Several partial data bases are already available and these can be drawn upon. A comprehensive data management system should also incorporate existing government, non-government and community information/data sources in order to provide an overall picture of potential danger zones, multisectoral early warning indicators and available resources for risk mitigation, preparedness and response. This could enable particular attention to be paid to disaster risk reduction and the consequent mobilization and allocation of resources in advance of disasters (Benouar and Chabaat, 1999). However, the success of this initiative is much dependent on triggering cultural, societal and bureaucratic changes within society in general.

Seismic safety recommendations The vulnerability functions constructed in Algeria until now have been based on an empirical approach using the damage observed in constructions following the earthquakes of Chlef (10 October 1980) and Tipaza (29 October 1989). Those that were developed within the framework of the work reported in this chapter are a first attempt at an analytical approach. They could be refined by repeating the same analysis for buildings representative of other identified construction types that vary by the number of storeys, the type of floors, their age, materials used and so on. Decision-makers need adequate integrated information on the likely intensity of the disasters the city will face if they are to reduce disaster vulnerability. This research shows the need for integrated disaster risk management in Algiers as well as in the other cities in Algeria. In order to reduce seismic risk to existing buildings in Algiers, constructions should be reinforced and their resistant capacity increased according to the weaknesses demonstrated in this research work.

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 183

ANNEX: ESTIMATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS OF MASONRY CONSTRUCTIONS IN ALGIERS Analytical methodology Selection of the building sample For a better understanding of the various types of buildings composing the constructions under study, a data acquisition procedure was developed. The whole built stock was subdivided according to characteristics that most influence their behaviour under the stress of earthquakes.

Evaluation of mechanical and dynamic characteristics of the sample The assessment of the capacity of existing buildings to resist earthquakes of probable intensity requires the evaluation of the buildings’ geometrical, mechanical and dynamic characteristics. In this research work, geometrical characteristics were collected by direct observation of the buildings and also drawn from archived construction details for buildings in Bab El Oued. Dynamic characteristics were evaluated by testing the buildings using ambient vibrations (such as those caused by lorries passing in the street). Because of the difficulties of collecting the mechanical characteristics of masonry (for example, the breaking point of stones or concrete block from the building itself), we had to consider several mortar strengths as well as a reference value adopted from the literature (Benedetti et al, 1984).

Selection of the mathematical model The choice of the model was based on the fundamental frequency obtained during the ambient vibration test. We found two rupture modes for the constructions: a rupture mode by deflection and a rupture mode by shear. The most important information obtained from the ambient vibration tests was the mode shape of the vibrations. This allowed the identification of the type of rupture mode for the structure considered.

Evaluation of resistance capacity of the building selected Bruneau (1994) and Madelaigue (1997) have demonstrated that the characteristic of rigid floors or links of walls has little influence on the behaviour of structural vertical elements. The appearance of fissures in the connections of these elements is not prevented; only a delay in their appearance was observed. Moreover, the floors of the old buildings were mainly built either of wood or in metal elements over brick arches. The reinforcement of lintels by metal elements is very often destroyed by rusting (oxidation). Taking into account these considerations and the model adopted, the evaluation of the resistance capacity of the structures focused on structures with rigid panels and fissured lintels. This step consisted of evaluating resistance capacity in terms of shear force and deformation withstood by the bearing elements before failure (Benedetti et al, 1984; Bozinovski and Gavrilovic, 1993). In other words, the evaluation of the resistance capacity of the bearing walls (structure) in terms of the intensity and deformation before they collapse.

Behaviour law of the structure adopted The response analysis of the structure to a vertical or horizontal load requires knowledge of the behaviour of the elements that compose it. Experience has shown, for flexible constructions, that the displacement capacity controls the rupture, whereas for rigid constructions, the rupture is controlled by the shear force capacity.

184 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa Concerning the representative building selected, because only the construction system is known, the behaviour of the level responsible for the rupture needed to be identified. In other words, the capacity in shear forces and structural deformations needed to be defined. The diagram illustrating the behaviour of the critical storey of the sample is bilinear and is characterized by two limiting states (Beolchini, 1992; Bozinovski and Gavrilovic, 1993). The coordinates of the points will be the capacity of the storey in an elastic state, with coordinates ⌬y and Qy, and in an ultimate state, with coordinates ⌬U and Qu (⌬ being displacement and Q shearing force),

Definition of the damage factor Rigid masonry constructions are structures that absorb energy. Therefore they resist shearing action. This is the reason why we are interested specifically in the first storey of the model, where the shear force is the largest. The definition of the global damage factor in terms of the acceleration of the ground is represented by the following expression from Angeletti et al (1988):

D ⫽ 100

A ⫺ Ai Ac ⫺ Ai

where A is ground acceleration, Ai is acceleration corresponding to the first damage and Ac is acceleration corresponding to the collapse of the building.

Statistical analysis according to parameters of buildings and populations The statistical analysis of the buildings in the city of Algiers was performed by defining zones based on the results of the general census of population and housing (ONS, 1998). The objective was to identify the most vulnerable zones according to seismic hazard, with consideration of the density of housing units and population. The results revealed that the zone including Bab El Oued has a high density of population and its situation makes evacuation and access difficult (see Figure 9.3). This zone is exposed to multiple hazards; consequently it was selected as a pilot area, where the identification of the typology of its built structures was made in the most complete way.

Analysis of the representative building design One of the fundamental criteria for the design of masonry buildings is based on the reduced section of the walls (CGS, 1999). The ratio between sections of the walls and section of floor for any storey should not be lower than 5 per cent. In the case of the representative building, this ratio is constant on the last five storeys and is about 6 per cent (see Figure 9.4). Except on the top storey, it is approximately the same for the two directions. The second parameter influencing the bearing capacity of a wall, after the mortar strength, is the ratio of the height over length of the element panel (Amrhein, 1978; Benedetti and Benzoni, 1984; Benedetti et al, 1984; Bruneau, 1994). Figure 9.5 illustrates the geometrical variation of panels defined by the height of the storey over the length of the bearing element (hi/l) for each storey of the structure. This variation lies between 1 and 3 for the intermediate storeys, and is definitely higher for the first storey, which could be explained by the height of storey which is 4.70m. The constancy of the geometrical twinge in the two directions of each storey, defined by the height of storey on one horizontal dimension (length and width) of the building, confirms the characteristic of square configuration in plan of the building. As well as the linear variation of the ratio of the building (height of a storey considering i hi/length or width) as shown in Figure 9.6, which is explained by the regularity of building elevation.

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 185 8.0 Direction (Y) 7.5

Direction (x)

Sr / S (%)

7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0

niv 1

niv 2

niv 3

niv 4

niv 5

niv 6

Figure 9.4 Variation of the section of bearing elements of the number of storeys

5.0

2200

4.5

1935

4.0

1570

3.5

1205

3.0

840

2.5

470

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0

xLa 1 xLa 2 xLa 3 xLa 4 xLa 5 xLa 6 xLb 1 xLb 2 xLc 1 xLc 2 xLd 1 xLd 2

Figure 9.5 Variation of the ratio (hi/l) of bearing elements in terms of number of storeys

Ratio (hi/li) and (Hi/Li)

1.6

hi/L

1.4

hi/l

1.2

Hi/L

1.0

Hi/l

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

6

5

3

4

2

1

Level

Figure 9.6 Variation of the ratio between the height and one plan dimension of the building

Fundamental period of buidling (sec)

186 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 1.2

E = 6G E = 2.5G

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Elasticity modulus E (106kPa)

Ultimate displacements at the bottom (d1) and top (d6) of the building

Figure 9.7 Variation of the fundamental period in terms of the elasticity modulus E 1.6

d1 (E = 6G)

1.4

d1 (E = 2.5G)

1.2

d6 (E = 6G)

1.0

d6 (E = 2.5G)

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

1

2

4

5

6 7 8 9 10 Elasticity modulus E (106kPa)

11

12

Figure 9.8 Variation of the displacement capacity of storeys 1and 6 in terms of elastic modulus E Autospectral density of terrace

Autospectral density of terrace

15.0

6.0 f = 3.40 Hz

10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 f = 4.00 Hz 0 0.00 1.25 2.50 3.75 5.00 6.25 7.50 8.75 10.00 Frequency

5.0 G units PSD/Hz (10–5)

G units PSD/Hz (10–5)

12.5

4.0 f = 3.30 Hz 3.0 2.0 f = 4.00 Hz 1.0 0 0.00 1.25 2.50 3.75 5.00 6.25 7.50 8.75 10.00 Frequency

Figure 9.9 Results of ambient vibration tests of the representative building in Bab El Oued

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 187 The load-bearing wall constructions (masonry) are known to be rigid structures. Figure 9.7 confirms this characteristic and shows that their fundamental period of vibration remains lower than 0.5 seconds, despite the large variation of the elasticity modulus E. It is noted that the natural period of vibration of the building analysed lies between 0.2 and 0.5 seconds for an elasticity modulus varying between 3 and 12 ⫻ 106kPa for a ratio of E:G equal to 2.5, where G is the shear modulus. However, the natural period of vibration increases abruptly for values of E ranging between 1 and 3 ⫻ 106kPa. For a ratio of E:G equal to 6, the variation of the natural period of vibration follows the same trend. While varying with the elasticity modulus E, the results obtained from the capacity analysis model in displacements are compatible with those obtained from the analysis of its own natural period of vibration. In fact, as Figure 9.8 shows, the form of the curve of the displacements capacity at the top (d6) or at the base (d1) of the building is comparable to that representing the variation of the natural period of vibration of the model (see Figure 9.7). This remark is also true when the ratio E:G changes from 2.5 to 6. The displacement capacity remains small and lower than 0.5cm for values of the elasticity modulus E higher than 4 ⫻ 106kPa and becomes rapidly significant for values of E lower than 3 ⫻ 106kPa. It can be easily noted that the displacement capacity at the sixth storey (d6) for a ratio of E:G equal to 6 is practically equal to that of the first storey (d1) for a ratio of E:G equal to 2.5. Thus the following conclusion may be drawn: the rigidity of a structure in load-bearing walls increases when the ratio E:G increases.

Selection of the mathematical model The ambient vibration tests carried out on the selected building led to the determination of the fundamental natural period of vibration of the structure at 0.294 seconds and 0.303 seconds respectively for each principal direction (see Figure 9.9), which confirms the regularity in the two directions of the building. The iterative research of the elasticity modulus for the two values of ratio E:G led for the representative building to E1 equal to 11.7 ⫻ 106kPa and E2 equal to 5.77 ⫻ 106kPa. The corresponding values of the rigidity modulus are respectively G1 equal to 1.95 ⫻ 106kPa, and G2 equal to 2.30 ⫻ 106kPa for the ratios of E:G taken successively equal to 6 (Benedetti and Benzoni, 1984; UNIDO/UNDP, 1984), and 2.5 (Amrhein, 1978). It may be noted that E1 is almost double E2; that is in the same trend as the two values selected for the ratio E:G. Figure 9.10 shows the mode shapes obtained by the test and the mathematical model.

Analysis of the model The capacity analysis in terms of shear force and displacements of the representative building shows that the doubling of the ratio E:G does not provide to the structure any significant increase in capacity reserve, nor in terms of forces or displacements (see Figures 9.11 and 9.12).

Analysis of structure capacity in mortar strength The findings show that the capacity in terms of shear forces of a masonry structure is proportional to the mortar strength (see Figure 9.13). It is noted that the tensile stress ␶ref equal to 89kPa, considered as a reference value, Benedetti /4/ corresponds to an intermediate value of the mortar strength fmo ranging between 15 and 20MPa, which correspond respectively to mortar classes M and S (Amrhein, 1978). Ductility capacity analysis of the model, for two resistance values fmo of the mortar (15 and 20 MPa), and considering the referential constraint of tensile stress of masonry ␶ref, shows that this capacity varies between 2.15 and 2.4 for the first three levels (see Figure 9.14). The values obtained are in agreement with those found by other authors (Benedetti et al, 1984; Bruneau, 1984; Decanini et al, 2000).

188 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 2500

EG = 6 EG = 2.5

Height of level (cm)

2000

Test

1500

1000

500

0

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Figure 9.10 The first mode shape of the representative building 3000

Capacity effort E/G = 6 Capacity effort E/G = 2.5

Height of level (cm)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 Level 6

Level 5

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

Figure 9.11 Variation of the ultimate capacity in terms of shear force 2500

E/G = 2.5 E/G = 6

Height of level (cm)

2000

1500

1000

500

0

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

Displacement (cm)

Figure 9.12 Variation of the ultimate capacity in terms of displacements

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 189 3000

ftref = 89kPa

fmo = 20MPa

fmo = 15MPa

fmo = 10MPa

fmo = 5MPa

fmo = 2.5MPa

Sharps efforts (kN)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 Level 6

Level 5

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

Figure 9.13 Shear force capacity of the structure in terms of the mortar strength fmo 2.55

Ductility capacity of diverse level

2.35 2.15

cont ref (89kPa) fmo = 20MPa fmo = 15MPa

1.95 1.75 1.55 1.35 1.15 0.95 0.75

Level 6

Level 5

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

Figure 9.14 Ductility capacity of the building model in terms of the mortar strength fmo

Interpretation of scientific findings into damage The damage functions are constructed, in the first step, for two values taken for the ratio E:G. The reference value for the tensile stress of masonry is taken equal to 89kPa and for the compressive stress is taken equal to the average value of 1780kPa. In the second step, the ratio E:G is taken equal to 6 and the curves are developed for three values of the masonry resistance (see Figure 9.15). The damage is evaluated using the relation developed by Angeletti et al (1988) expressing the ratio between the difference of two accelerations (see page 184). The first result of the analysis (see Figure 9.15) shows that the capacity of the representative building to resist a total collapse cannot go beyond an acceleration of 10%g, for a ratio

190 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa 120

E/G = 2.5

Ductility capacity of diverse level

E/G = 6 100

80

60

40

20

0

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5 9.5 Acceleration (%g)

10.5

14

16.5

16.8

Figure 9.15 Vulnerability curve for tensile stress ␶t = 89kPa and compression stress fc = 1780kPa of terms of the ratio E:G E:G = 2.5 and of 16%g for a ratio E:G = 6. These limit values of the ground acceleration, beyond which the structure cannot resist, are compatible with those obtained by tests on scale models (Benedetti and Benzoni, 1984; Benedetti et al, 1984). Figures 9.11 and 9.12 correspond respectively to the capacity analysis in terms of shear force and displacements according the ratio E:G, and show that the increase in this ratio involves the increase in the capacity as well as in forces and displacements. For a constant value of the ratio E:G equal to 6, the analysis of the damage while varying the value of the masonry tensile stress (see Figure 9.16) shows that the damage curve corresponding to the reference tensile stress ␶ref (89kPa) remains between those corresponding to the mortar strength of the types M (fmo = 15MPa) and S (fmo = 20MPa). This observation was already made (Figures 9.13 and 9.14) during the capacity analysis in terms of shear force and ductility. 120

Type M Type S

100

REF (89)

Damage (%)

80

60

40

20

0

5

6.7

7

8

9

10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 Acceleration (%g)

14.2

16

18

20

30

Figure 9.16 Vulnerability curve corresponding to two types of mortar and E/G =6

Disaster Risk Reduction in Algiers, Algeria 191

REFERENCES Abdelouaheb, N. and Sadoun, T. (1996) ‘Evaluation de la pollution de l’eau par les métaux lourds à l’aide des moules de la région d’Alger’, Communications 1er Séminaire Maghrebin sur l’Eau, Université de Tizi Ouzou (Algérie), Juin Ait Meziane, Y., Benouar, D. and Farsi, M. (2004) ‘Seismic vulnerability estimation of a representative building in Bab El Oued district (Algiers, Algeria)’, European Earthquake Engineering Journal, vol 18, no 1, pp27–36 Amrhein, J. E. (ed) (1978) Reinforced Masonry Engineering Handbook, Masonry Institute of America (ed), 3rd Edition, Masonry Institute of America, Torrance, CA ANAT (Agence Nationale d’Aménagement du Territoire) (1996) ‘Schéma d’organisation de l’armature urbaine de la région métropolitaine d’Alger’, ANAT, Algiers Angeletti, P., Bellina, A., Grandori, E. G., Moretti, A. and Petrini, V. (1988) ‘Comparison between vulnerability assessment and damage index, some results’, in Proceedings of 9th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, Tokyo, vol 7, ppVII-181–VII-186 Aoudia, T. (1991) ‘Pollution atmosphérique dans la région Est d’Alger’, in Etudes: Estimation des concentrations dans l’air à l’aide d’un modèle de boite, rapport interne, CERHYD, Algiers Benedetti, D. (1984) ‘Repairing and strengthening stone masonry building’, in 8th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco, vol 1, pp503–515 Benedetti, D. and Benzoni, G. M. (1984) ‘A numerical model for seismic analysis of masonry buildings: Experimental correlations’, Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, vol 12, pp817–931 Benedetti, D., Benzoni, G. M. and Petrini, V. (1984) ‘Experimental evaluation of seismic provisions for stone masonry building’, in Proceedings of 8th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco, vol 1, pp845–852 Benouar, D. (1999) ‘Governmental measures to mitigate earthquake impacts in Algeria’, 2nd International Disaster and Emergency Readiness and 5th International Emergency Planning Conference, 12–14 October, The Hague Benouar, D. (2002a) ‘The need for an integrated disaster management strategy for cities of geo-techno-environmental risks in north Africa: A case study of Algiers (Algeria)’, Integrated Disaster Risk Management 2002 Conference: Megacity Vulnerability and Resilience, 29–31 July, Luxemburg Benouar, D. (2002b) ‘Algiers (Algeria) floods and debris flows of 10 November 2001’, 4ème Symposium International de l’Eau, Palais des Festivals de Cannes, 3–7 June, Cannes Benouar, D. and Chabaat, M. (1999) ‘Proposition de création d’une agence nationale de recherche et de gestion des catastrophes naturelles en Algérie’, 2nd Rencontre en Génie Parasismique des Pays Méditerranéens (SISMICA 99), 28–30 October, Faro Beolchini, G. C. (1992) ‘Mechanical properties of old stone masonries’, Proceedings of the 10th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, Madrid, pp3499–3504 Bozinovski, Z. and Gavrilovic, P. (1993) ‘Static, dynamic and ultimate state of masonry buildings subjected to vertical and horizontal loads’, Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia Bruchet, A. (1985) ‘Recherche d’hydrocarbures dans les forages de la nappe d’Alger’, Rapport Lyonnaise des Eaux, Laboratoire Central, Paris, France Bruneau, M. (1994) ‘A state of the art report on seismic performance of unreinforced masonry buildings’, Journal of Structural Engineering, vol 120, no 1, pp230–251 CGS (Centre National de Recherche Appliquée en Génie Parasismique) (1985) ‘Microzonage sismique de la région d’Alger’, rapport interne, CGS, Algiers CGS (1998) ‘Etude de microzonation de la ville d’Alger’, rapport interne, CGS, Algiers CGS (1999) Règles Parasismiques Algériennes, Ministère de l’habitat, editées par le Centre National de Recherche Appliquée en Génie Parasismique, CGS, Algiers

192 Case Studies of Urban Disaster Risk in Africa CNERU (Centre National d’Etudes et de Recherches Appliquées en Urbanisme) (2002) ‘Plans d’occupation des sols (POS) de Bab-El-Oued (U12)’, rapport interne, CNERU, Algiers CPVA (Conseil Populaire de la Ville d’Alger) (1840–1962) Archives plans de la Wilaya d’Alger, CPVA, Algiers DDAHA (Division du Développement des Activités Hydrauliques et Agricoles) (1990) ‘Dossier pollution et nuisances de la Wilaya d’Alger’, Division du Développement des Activités Hydrauliques et Agricoles, Service Environnement des forêts de la Wilaya d’Alger, DDAHA, Algiers Decanini, L., Gavarini, C. and Mollaioli, F. (2000) ‘Some remarks on the Umbria-Marche earthquakes of 1997’, Journal of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering, vol 14, no 3, pp18–48 Deluz, J. J. (1988) Aperçu Critique sur l’Architecture et l’Urbanisme à Alger, Pierre Mardaga Edition, Liège DVAHA (Division du Développement des Activités Hydrauliques et Agricoles) (1990) ‘Dossier pollution et nuisances de la Wilaya d’Alger’, Division du Développement des Activités Hydrauliques et Agricoles, Service Environnement des forêts de la Wilaya d’Alger, DVAHA, Algiers Farsi, M. N. and Benouar, D. (2004) ‘Seismic vulnerability estimation of a representative building in Bab El Oued district (Algiers, Algeria)’, European Earthquake Engineering Journal, vol 18i, no 1, pp27–36 Hautecoeur, L. (1960) Le permis de construire, 1957–58, sous la direction de Deville et Hochereau, Academie des Beaux Arts, Paris IEA (Inspection Environnementale Alger) (1997) ‘Rapport sur l’état environnementale’, Inspection de l’Environnement de la Wilaya d’Alger, rapport interne, IEA, Algiers INGECO (Ingénierie de l’Ecologie) (1997) ‘Audit environnemental de la cimenterie de Rais Hamidou,’ rapport préliminaire, INGECO, Algiers Kaoula, A. (1996) ‘Alger, une capitale malade de ses ordures,’ revue, Symbiose, No 5, pp7–24 Lespes, R. V. (1930) Alger, Etude de Géographie et d’Histoire Urbaine. Collection de centenaire de l’Algérie, 1930, Editon agrégée, Librairie Felix Alcan, 1830–1930, Algiers Madelaigue, C. (1997) ‘Renforcement du bâti existant en zone sismique’, PhD thesis, l’université, Paris VI, Option mécanique, 2ème Partie, Paris Malverti, X. and Picard, A. (1989) Les tracés des villes et le savoir des ingénieurs du génie – Algérie 1830–1870, Edition ecole d’architecture de Grenoble, Paris Melha, A. (2001) ‘Les enjeux environnementaux en Algérie’, Pifp, Algiers ONS (Office National des Statistiques) (1998) Recensement général de l’habitat et de la population, RGHP 98, ONS, Algiers Petruccioli, A. (1989) ‘Alger 1830–1930, pour une lecture typologique des immeubles d’habitation’, Environmental Design: Journal of the Islamic Environmental Design Research Centre, vol 12, pp104–117 Rouidi, L. (1995) ‘Les déchets solides urbains du Grand Alger: Quantification, caractérisation et propositions techniques pour leur élimination’, Revue Edil – Info. Alger., no 6, pp12–31 Sellali, B. (1995) Influence des rejets urbain et industriels sur l’environnement du littoral: Quelques exemples en Algérie, Actes de la Conférence Nationale sur la Nouvelle Politique de l’Eau, AGEP, Algiers UNIDO/UNDP (1984) Construction Under Seismic Conditions in the Balkan Region, vol. 3: Design and Construction of Stone and Brick Masonry Buildings, UNIDO/UNDP, Vienna Urbanis (1998) ‘Problèmes environnementaux dans le Gouvernorat du Grand Alger’, internal report, Province of Algiers, Algiers

Part III

A Vision for a Safer Urban Africa

10

Towards a Safer Urban Future: Conclusions and Recommendations

Djillali Benouar, Khady Diagne, Robert Kiunsi, Jacob Songsore, Mark Pelling, Robyn Pharoah, Ben Wisner, Abdoulaye Ndiaye and Andre Yitambe

SCIENCE, POLITICS AND CONSTRAINED ACTION In the opening chapter of this book we set out to challenge three images of Africa. We argued that received wisdom was in danger of distancing imagined and lived experiences and distorting policy away from urban disaster risk reduction. We argued that Africa is a substantially urban continent, that its hazards and disaster losses are multidimensional and that there is a critical mass of indigenous energy and focus to tackle urban disaster risk reduction. The subsequent review and case study chapters have left little doubt that urbanization is of substantial and growing importance in shaping development trajectories and the environment–society relationship, and that disaster risk is indeed diverse and multilayered. Research from Accra demonstrates this most clearly with GIS techniques revealing the multiple environmental risk burden of the poor, and also that the poor in different parts of the city experience different combinations and priorities in environmental risk, shaped by livelihoods, access to basic needs and environmental conditions. The chapters in this volume have also shown the scope of opportunity and challenges for urban disaster risk reduction in Africa across the continuum from everyday through small to large disasters. Our third premise has proven most difficult to support. Certainly as Chapter 3 has shown there is a huge diversity of potential and application in disaster risk

196 A Vision for a Safer Urban Africa reduction activities, but the case study chapters highlight the difficulties of engaging with urban disaster risk reduction. The gap between global technical knowledge on disaster risk reduction (which is reasonably sound) and local experience (which across the case studies shows a lack of development and application) is stark. In some cases, Algeria for example, strong local technical capacity leads the way in planning for environmental safety, but is constrained by the policy choices that can be made in a centralized governance regime. In contrast, in Cape Town, a decentralized governance structure has provided formal scope for innovation but not supported this with investment in financial and organizational capacity. In both cases, expert scientific knowledge coupled with the participation of local actors and the partnership of government agencies for urban planning and emergency services has opened policy space for disaster risk reduction and begun to move political will. The need to engage with social and political processes to raise the profile of disaster risk and move beyond denial or an assumption that poverty alleviation alone reduces risk from environmental hazards was exemplified by work in Saint-Louis, Senegal, where civil society organizers had succeeded in giving disaster risk and its reduction political visibility among local communities at risk and urban planners. The gap between knowledge and action was also shown to be related to processes of change in urban systems that require planning to keep pace and need to be insulated from the economic and political power of elites who seek to override planning principles for the sake of profit – for example the case of Dar es Salaam’s upmarket development in a coastal wetland. The challenge of unregulated growth also was evident in the case of Kenya, where increasing use of motorized transport generated risk in the absence of adequate enforcement of traffic and road safety rules. As Chapter 1 noted, the limited range of research on urban disaster and everyday risk suggests that there is more local activity than is brought to the attention of academic studies and international agencies, especially in informal and slum settlements and in smaller urban centres where there is least research. The need to reduce disaster risk and prevent avoidable loss of life, injury and damage to livelihoods and urban infrastructure is magnified by the concerns of climate change. Climate change both undermines the resilience of urban systems and demands changes in the energy economy of urbanization. As the case study chapters reflect, there is little discussion of carbon economics and mitigation in African cities, with discourse placing the burden of mitigation on richer countries. Adaptation is recognized as a need and framed in terms of flood hazard mitigation and changing disease ecologies. The emphasis on adaptation is justifiable (climate change-associated threats are real and immediate while African cities continue to contribute relatively little to global greenhouse gas emissions) but is in danger of missing a great opportunity for Africa’s urban expansion to take on board combined mitigation and adaptation principles and so build risk reduction into the city. Combined mitigation/adapta-

Toward a Safer Urban Future 197 tion planning can also enhance social justice in the city, for example through partnerships between slum dwellers and urban planners to bring safe livelihood opportunities closer to where people live, reducing reliance of exposed critical infrastructure and the carbon costs and health impacts of transport. Climate change requires a step change in coordinated action and the inclusion of the vulnerable in policies for urban (and rurban) risk reduction. This is a function of governance. Here lies Africa’s greatest challenge.

TWIN CHALLENGES FOR GOVERNANCE IN URBAN RISK REDUCTION

The State of the Humanitarian Enterprise (Donini et al, 2008) points up two major challenges that certainly apply to governance for urban risk assessment and reduction in Africa. One is the problem of coherence – how complex problems can be tackled across institutional boundaries, mandates and disciplinary perspectives. The other is globalization – the increasing number and intensity of external drivers of risk that need, somehow, to be anticipated and engaged, not only through local adaptation but also at strategic national, regional and global scales of the political economy.

The challenge of coherence Coherence demands practical cooperation among stakeholders, including those who may not be used to the way others are motivated and organized. Urban risk reduction in Africa, as elsewhere, demands cooperation across many kinds of human activities – many government departments at various levels, the private sector and civil society. Simply to understand what needs to be done to identify the complex hazards and vulnerabilities shaping urban environmental risk in Africa requires interdisciplinary thinking and capacity that is unusual – though not absent entirely in fields such as development studies and urban studies. So the problem of coherence is also an intellectual one. For the case of Algeria, as in other countries in transition from centralized to democratic governance, traditions of cooperation among stakeholders are limited. There is a need to develop cultures of risk reduction that empower local actors to take responsibility and hold government to account. Part of this process is the movement towards greater independence from the state in developmental civil society. Another challenge for coherent policy and practice is strikingly similar to that faced by humanitarian organizations in extreme situations: civilian–military relations and liaison. A tension in work on the everyday hazards presented by poor sanitation, chaotic vehicular traffic and management of utilities such as water and electricity involves perceptions of authority and discipline. On the whole, inspectorates – be they building inspectors, health inspectors or traffic

198 A Vision for a Safer Urban Africa police – are not popular. They project state power in petty but real ways. This is where the UN’s ambitious guiding principles for disaster risk reduction (the Hyogo Framework of Action) begin to get bogged down. Can one build a ‘culture of prevention’ in an urban situation where building codes, marketplace rules and solid waste management arrangements are seen as impositions by a mistrusted and remote government? Judith Tendler in her classic book, Good Governance in the Tropics (1997) writes about ‘street level bureaucrats’ in Brazil who were able to turn such situations around by not fining people for infringements, but showing them low-cost ways to comply, while also reaping benefits: the butcher who is taught how to protect meat from flies and can now sell it more profitably because it remains high quality. This philosophy on local risk management has much to teach the broader field of urban risk reduction in a majority of Africa’s urban settlements – where the state is ineffective, absent or counterdevelopmental. It is important in finding a local solution to state weakness – one that does not simply shift to impositions by a bureaucracy built by international NGOs in which lines of patronage and dependency are simply reoriented rather than challenged. This is an important message and one that goes against the tide of development practice where international NGOs have great influence in many cities, such as Dar es Salaam and Saint-Louis in this volume.

The challenge of globalization Globalization, too, takes many forms relevant to African urban risk and safety. On average, African countries continue to receive less overseas direct investment than countries in any other world region (Montgomery et al, 2003). Isolation from investment and opportunities to market goods overseas are contributing causes of Africa’s poverty. But connection to international investment brings with it dangers. African nations are now receiving direct overseas investment from many quarters including China, India and Brazil, as well as more traditional sources in European countries and North America. It is difficult for African mayors or even officials in Africa’s national governments to demand care with hazardous technology when they are negotiating with huge overseas corporations or relatively rich governments and feel they need investment in infrastructure to exploit resources. Social unrest and environmental degradation in Nigeria and Sudan have both been associated with international investment and exploitation of natural resources. Globalization has also brought with it the opportunity, sometimes combined with external political pressure from donors and the World Bank, to privatize urban public utilities such as water and electricity in African cities. ActionAid (2004) describes how the World Bank pushed Dar es Salaam to privatize its water system. In Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, privatization was encouraged by the World Bank and French government (Ménard and Clarke, 2000). Large multinational corporations such as Lyonnaise-des-Eaux (see www.lyonnaise-des-eaux.fr/) have taken charge of urban water systems under contracts that provide incentives for

Toward a Safer Urban Future 199 them to extend services to unserved populations and to reduce water wastage. Incomplete provision and costs recovery have led to a sustained critique of the degree to which low-income households have benefited from privatization (Castro, 2008). Moreover it is exceptional for planning incentives to exist for such private managers to build critical water and sanitation infrastructure that is resilient against disaster impacts such as flood or storm. Climate change means that future hydrometeorological regimes cannot be planned for based on historical trajectories but still this is the basis for much infrastructure planning, with the effect of magnifying risk potential for failure in critical infrastructure. Also viewed from the perspective of the private sector, globalization has brought both opportunities – whether entirely for profit or in some cases also for socially responsible investment – and new risks. The World Economic Forum published in 2008 a Global Risk Network Briefing entitled Africa@Risk (World Economic Forum, 2008). It focuses on ‘non-business risks that affect businesses (i.e. not financial, operational or project risks, or strategic risks within a firm’s span of control)’ (p4). Among these the briefing analyses: climate change, the environment and challenges to Africa’s development; geopolitical instability; and food and freshwater security. All of these are closely linked to rate and patterns of growth of African cities (rapid and largely informal, as we have seen), governance and the credibility of urban as well as national governance (questionable in many cases), and measures to secure critical infrastructure and supplies of food and water in African cities. State failures to manage growth, to secure the trust and functional cooperation of people living under conditions of informality in rurban peripheries and central slums, and to provide food and basic services can result in riots and geopolitical instability. In 2006–2008, Africa suffered rioting in towns in Senegal, Cameroon, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Tanzania and Kenya, to mention just a few (World Bank, 2008). Transboundary connections also link African cities. Events such as that caused by the land tenure disputes and post-election riots in Kenya may disrupt vital supplies of fuel and food for cities in landlocked African states (Uganda, Burundi and DR Congo in the Kenyan case). Following Mozambique’s great flood of 2000, roads linking Maputo to neighbouring countries were blocked and destroyed. This halted trade and prevented the distribution of relief supplies. Food prices rose rapidly in urban areas (UN-HABITAT, 2007). Integrated and cross-national economies can add complexity that undermines efforts to manage disaster risk, for example structural steel bars imported from one African country to a neighbouring one may not comply with the building standards required for multi-storey public buildings (such as hospitals and secondary schools) in seismically hazardous cities such as Kampala, Arusha and Addis Ababa. These are the overall challenges we have seen exemplified in case studies from six African cities. In addition, a dozen specific conclusions and recommendations suggest themselves.

200 A Vision for a Safer Urban Africa

SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The challenge of immobility and informality We have seen that much of urban life and form in Africa is informal. This has physical expression in the inner-city slums, converted colonial cores and sprawling peripheral squatter settlements that can make up more than 50 per cent of the residential land in rapidly growing cities. Slums and squatter settlements are growing more rapidly in Africa than any other continent. Informality in land use and the economy is a response to the inability of African states and urban authorities to exercise guidance and control and of the exclusive and limited nature of formal markets in urban land and other commodities. On the one hand, such informality is a source of strength and sustainable livelihoods for many people, but on the other hand and from the point of view of urban governance, it makes it harder to know how to engage in planning, especially when sacrifices such as resettlement seem to be required. As McAuslan, (1985, p114) writes: There is an enormous gap between the lifestyles and prospects of the urban poor and the urban elite; there is also an enormous disparity of power between the two groups and between their relationships to the organized processes of municipal administration and policy-making. The urban poor live beyond the pale of the law. Their whole life is one long illegality, while the urban elite make the laws and determine the penalties for breaking them. In many countries in Africa, the dividing line between legal and illegal is one that has been inherited, largely unaltered from the colonial past. This tension lies at the heart of planning for risk reduction in African cities. The expansion of African cities opens an opportunity to plan for risk minimization through land use and construction standards. This is not as easy and is more costly in cities where rapid growth has slowed and risk reduction is focused on redesign – in Latin America for example. However, realizing this potential will be challenging and requires informal as well as formal organizations and worldviews to come together. At present it is hard to imagine how the state in any of the countries considered in this book could generate the trust and mutual understanding to convince poor urban squatters to relocate, even if what is on offer sounds like good housing, services and even income opportunities. The question is whether the people would believe such promises after more than four decades of failed development projects and broken promises.

Prioritizing a broad range of hazards and risks The case studies demonstrate that daily life in urban Africa is rife with dangers: inadequate sanitation, shack fire, violence and crime, traffic accidents and indus-

Toward a Safer Urban Future 201 trial pollution. Episodically there may also be building collapses, large explosions, epidemics, floods or storms. However, national policy-makers, researchers and city managers still tend to look at risk from the point of view of their specialities and give special attention to more conspicuous risk. This makes it difficult to see the urban hazardscape through the eyes of a child walking to school or an elder or disabled woman trying to access clean water. Recognizing that risk is a product of hazard and vulnerability places emphasis on the value of social, economic and cultural processes in shaping who is in danger from environmental harm. Often, but not always, it is the same social groups who are most at risk – the very young and elderly, women, the disabled and chronically ill, distressed households with low incomes and recent urban migrants. There are some important exceptions – it is young men, for example, that are most often injured or killed in road traffic accidents and young sexually active adults that succumb to HIV/AIDS. With this social view as a starting point for risk reduction, it becomes possible to plan for strategic investment to build local economic and social capacity that can be available as a generic resource for those facing multiple risks. At the same time though, it is important to realize that one solution to risk for individual households – to gain economic mobility and move out of places at risk – will only shift risk (to new residents in the expanding urban population), not reduce it. This means that investment (from local communities, the government and international actors) to mitigate local hazards is also needed alongside work to reduce vulnerability.

Underdevelopment of urban civil society engagement with risk Civil society in the form of NGOs and, to some extent, CBOs are responsive to donor-defined priorities. As a result most NGOs and CBOs are project and problem specific in their work. HIV/AIDS, street children, women’s rights, malaria and other donor concerns dominate. While there is no doubt that these are real problem areas in urban Africa and would probably be high on the list of priorities of African urbanites as well, the result is that urban risk has not found its place onto the agenda of civil society. Elsewhere, for example in Algeria, it is a strong state that has most influence over the activities of parastatal and civil society activities. This challenge can be responded to by donors, international NGOs and local actors including local government and line ministries by engaging in more open discussion. This can help to minimize overlapping priorities and competition between agencies and identify gaps – such as integrated urban risk reduction – that require joined-up action from the top down and bottom up and from all stakeholders. Without cooperation it becomes more difficult for individual agencies to contribute. For instance, vulnerability might be reduced by social development and livelihoods agencies but if, at the same time, environmental hazards are allowed to go unmitigated, potential gains from risk reduction will be lost.

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Governing well and learning from government efforts Many African nations now have laws setting up decentralized systems of governance. However, mere devolution of responsibility is not the same as decentralization of decision-making and the financial means to carry out decisions. Thinking back on the case studies in this book, it is clear that the subdivisions of Algiers, Cape Town and Saint-Louis have little autonomy in more centralized systems of governance, while subdivisions such as Ilala in greater Dar es Salaam and a smaller city such as Kisumu in western Kenya have more capacity to develop and implement policy. In the case of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, an elaborate structure of governance exists without the necessary coordination at the level of the three constituent parts of the region, which consists of Accra Metropolitan Area, Tema Municipal Area (recently upgraded into a metropolitan area) and Ga District (recently divided into Ga West and Ga East Districts). There is hardly any horizontal coordination of policies and planning among these constituent parts, even though economically, physically and socially they can only function well when considered as a system. In a similar fashion, the subdivision of metropolitan areas into sub-metropolitan areas has not led to any significant functional and financial decentralization to enhance operational efficiency within the constituent parts. A creative tension should exist between sufficient meaningful decentralization to allow smaller administrative units of larger cities to deal creatively with local problems and sufficient central state involvement to encourage coordination within the larger context of the urban region. African national and city government also needs to directly and forcefully face the problem of corruption. The most recently installed regime in the World Bank appears to be easing off pressure for transparency. After elections in Africa that focused attention on corruption of the incumbent administration, a year or so later, the new elite is often mired in the same ‘business’. African nations rank very high in the Global Corruption Report (Transparency International, 2008). Not only does corruption waste precious resources that could be used for urban infrastructure, essential services and risk reduction, but it has a corrosive social impact that makes trust and cooperation between citizen and government more difficult.

Development of strong civil society–local government–private sector partnerships Privatization of services and infrastructure in some countries such as Ghana and South Africa has resulted in protests by civil society. Protests over water shortages have become an annual ritual in Nairobi. Where the city does not have the financial and management capacities to expand and maintain services (such as water supply), then there is something to be said for making arrangements with

Toward a Safer Urban Future 203 companies to step in. However, the contractual terms must be carefully written and even more carefully monitored for their execution and results. Targets, incentives and penalties need to be written in. Safeguards for the poorest also are required such as South Africa’s constitutionally mandated minimum supply of clean water for every citizen. Privatization is not a panacea and there will be contexts where private sector investment will be difficult to secure. Imaginative solutions do exist. In Dar es Salaam and many other cities, an army of informal sector water vendors serves those without access to water and could be extended both as a livelihood opportunity and to provide safe drinking water to the poor who at present cannot afford clean water. Such initiatives, like support for informal waste recyclers, do not fit comfortably alongside contemporary privatization agendas that are oriented towards large corporations (rather than partnering with multiple petty capitalists). This is partly an outcome of the influence of donors including the World Bank, which has championed the privatization agenda in African cities despite setbacks. In the case of Ghana, World Bank-supported water privatization has not prevented a water crisis. In the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, children and women go water hunting on a daily basis while water tariffs continue to escalate.

Adapting to global environmental change African urban centres contribute relatively little to global greenhouse gas emissions and yet will be among the most impacted locations. As African cities grow and consumption increases, adaptation planning will need to be complemented by efforts to mainstream mitigation into development. Redesigning cities for adaptation, to reduce climate change impacts, for example flood events, can include the relocation of settlements, despite the difficulties of motivating people to move. However, even if relocation is successful, a climate change perspective means that planners also need to consider additional carbon costs of transport to work for residents from the new safer location. In this case, mainstreaming mitigation into adaptation planning reinforces existing best practice in urban development that encourages integrated community planning with work opportunities close to home and access to affordable public transport. Climate change will also impact urban critical infrastructure – in particular water and power supply. Much urban power supply in Africa is dependent on hydroelectricity, and in some cases, increasingly expensive diesel generators. Water supply and hydroelectricity are both highly susceptible to variations in rainfall. In 2006, Dar es Salaam suffered power cuts because drought affected the level of the reservoir used to generate the city’s power. In Ghana, persistent shortfalls in hydroelectric generation from the Akosombo dam as a result of inadequate rains over three years have stalled economic activities and limited economic growth prospects. Indeed, the Volta Aluminum Company has had to shut down to prevent imminent collapse of the dam. Water and energy conser-

204 A Vision for a Safer Urban Africa vation offer real opportunities for cities in Africa to reduce vulnerability. Scope for local energy production using solar and wind power, and for local water distribution systems can open economic development opportunities for local economies. Foreign investment, technology and training may be needed and this is an important future role for donors and development agencies alongside the private sector. It is hoped that partnering development agencies, local actors and foreign interests will prioritize the accumulation of skills and economic rewards at the local level rather than see emerging environmental businesses as an opportunity for capital to be extracted from the local to national elite and international business interests (Gunewardena and Schuller, 2008). A number of major coastal African cities including Alexandria, Dar es Salaam, Saint-Louis, Maputo and the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area are low lying and vulnerable to sea-level rise and increased storminess over the next 50–100 years. As populations grow, planning must keep pace with such likely hazards and guide populations into areas less likely to be affected. To date there has been little political will and popular support for relocation. The economic and social costs of relocation are high, and past experience with urban relocation has shown it often leads to social disruption and the undermining of livelihoods and quality of life for those being relocated. Serious consideration is needed to weigh up the costs and benefits in social, cultural and environmental as well as livelihood and macroeconomic terms of relocation as part of a proactive adaptation strategy for coastal and riverine settlements, and to search for alternatives where relocation is not practical or does not have political or popular support. At the very least a national discussion is needed. Climate change will bring changes in the disease ecology of many urban settlements and, as noted in the Ghana and Dar es Salaam case studies, this will interact with local environmental services (drainage, waste collection, housing quality and sanitation) to shape future disease burdens for the urban poor. Here climate change adaptation provides additional impetus for existing urban management priorities – providing and maintaining adequate environmental services – and can be used to lobby for greater support to extend services into slum and squatter communities. This is a prime example where adaptation to climate change can be undertaken now – detailed climate projects are not needed to argue for the importance of basic environmental services to protect public health.

Benefiting from global economic interdependence and new forms of industrialization There have been a number of notable ‘scrambles for Africa’. The current one concerns access to petroleum and natural gas reserves and minerals (uranium, gold, copper, coltan and gems). Africa’s potential for food, biofuel and fibre export is also gaining new interest among investors in South Africa and also outside the continent, including the Gulf, where once again, as in the 1980s, the

Toward a Safer Urban Future 205 formula of Arab capital, African land and labour has been reinvented (Wisner, 1988). Even if other forms of manufacturing lag behind in Africa’s cities, at a minimum there is considerable potential for industries that provide the oil industry, mining, agribusiness and transportation with key inputs, repair services and even add value to primary products. As urban economies become more diversified, they potentially improve their resilience to disaster risk. Multiple economic pathways mean it is more likely that some will be unaffected or recover quickly from disaster shocks. At the same time, greater connectedness to regional and global trade and investment can expose urban economies to new risks. Disruption of transport systems caused by flooding, loss of markets as a result of conflict or economic crisis can all undermine the economic base of a city but are also outside the scope of urban and even national authorities to control. This is not an argument for reducing linkages – Africa’s economic plight is partly a result of limited regional and global interconnectivity – but for investment to support the social as well as the economic base of urban sustainability to provide a resource during hard times. It should also be remembered that industrial growth, important as it is for Africa’s economic emancipation, can endanger public health and safety unless it is zoned and regulated properly by the state. We saw in the Dar es Salaam case that even on a small scale, wood processing produced a good deal of air pollution hazard. Although heavy industries are the main polluters, it is easy to forget that a proliferation of unregulated informal enterprises also poses significant health risks to the operators and neighbouring residents.

Increasing polarization between rich and poor in urban Africa Economic globalization is creating winners and losers. In some countries such as India and China, huge middle classes have arisen, while hundreds of millions still live on a few dollars a day. While the scale of such polarization in Africa is not as great, the gap between rich and poor is as wide as anywhere and shows no sign of closing. The anti-immigrant riots in South African cities in 2008 were largely a matter of the very poor scapegoating poor foreign migrants and venting anger over the failure of South Africa’s democracy to ‘raise all boats’ after 14 years since majority rule elections were held. Urban youth gang activity and criminality is also fuelled by a perceived gap between rich and poor. To the extent that some of the super-wealth accumulated is perceived as the result of corruption, there is a demonstration effect from above. Thus petty corruption thrives and this fuels mafia-like protection, resistance, reprisal and in some cases arson and worse. Under such conditions of a downward social spiral, it is hard to implement local urban participatory programmes that require trust among neighbours and between the community and government.

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Building human capital for Africa Africa’s own research and higher education and training capacity is not adequately linked with local government or with civil society. In part this is a function of the conservative nature of academia, something not unique to Africa. Also, this problem is due to the scarcity of resources in African academia and heavy teaching loads. Academics and civil society tend to survive on soft money from project to project, mostly at the request of external donors. From the side of government, there are memories of past protests by university students in many countries and a lingering mistrust of the academic sector. A number of university faculty members have of late set up very viable independent NGOs involved in advocacy work, which include issues of governance, environment, trade justice and so on. Examples are the Third World Network, Institute of Democratic Governance, Centre for Economic Policy Analysis in Ghana; the African Centre for Technology Studies in Nairobi; LiNKS Africa and RAPOA in Tanzania that focus on indigenous knowledge and the analysis of poverty, respectively; as well as the southern African network of NGOs working on disaster risk called Peri Peri, coordinated by DiMP at the University of Cape Town. Besides, in Ghana, Tanzania, South Africa and Kenya, academics have worked with both the state and non-state sectors on many urban and rural development questions and, indeed, have on several occasions provided the only alternative discourse to donor-driven policy interventions. However, governments continue to rely heavily on external opinion, sometimes because of past distrust of the political intensions of their own academics and professionals, but also because external consultation is written into donor arrangements. In fact, such required external consulting takes up a large share of donor funds. Changes, therefore, are required on all sides if the full potential of Africa’s own formal research capacity is to be focused on urban risk reduction among other strategic development sectors. There is also potential for South–South co-learning, for example through networks of academics. Examples include Peri Peri, a network of natural, physical and social scientists focused around questions of natural disaster risk, and AARSE (www.itc.nl/aarse/), an African network of modellers and physical scientists working to develop hazard-monitoring tools.

Collecting meaningful and helpful data Chapter 2 showed that international disaster databases do not track the full range of urban risks anywhere in the world, and certainly not in African cities. Where they exist, data are dispersed among many specialized research and public institutions that deal with transportation, health, housing or meteorology. Data need to be compiled across the full continuum of urban risk and presented in ways that are helpful to managers of Africa’s cities. We have seen that in Cape Town MANDISA has made a start in that direction.

Toward a Safer Urban Future 207 Given the large degree of self-building and informality in these cities, there is an undervaluation of the value of housing stock, small workshops, marketplaces, as well as peri-urban horticulture and animal production. When these are damaged or destroyed in extreme events, their full value is seldom taken into account in recovery plans. Economic data gathering needs to be retooled so that the value of informally produced assets is accounted for, as well as the value of social capital. Critical questions about them concern who controls and who benefits from data. There is little effort by researchers today to report their findings back to the citizens who host research studies and give their time. Much so-called ‘participatory’ research is superficially participatory. Participation does not extend to ownership and control over data (just as we have seen, much ‘decentralization’ is hollow because it comes without financial control). When working with local stakeholders it is important to find a balance between presenting research as being useful but also being honest about the very indirect linkages between academic research and policy or project outcomes for individuals and local areas. This balance is delicate and some of the work presented here was arguably constrained by the high expectations of local actors generated in the early stages of research. Delays or misperceptions by stakeholders can produce disappointment and harden their hearts against future collaboration with researchers or local government. Therefore it is vital to make the ground rules clear from the beginning and make every effort to follow through on promises. A lot is made these days of the value of so-called mixed methods in development-oriented and risk research. This phrase refers to mixing qualitative narrative data with quantitative data. To be sure, this is a strong combination, but researchers need to be mindful of sampling and other scientific methods while conducting both kinds of research. The AURAN work reported on in this book applied a range of methods with varying outcomes. At one end of the spectrum Chapters 4, 6 and 9 were able to build on past research and applied quantitative, as well as qualitative data collection and analysis. More explorative work was undertaken in Chapters 5 and 8 where a focus on human behaviour opened scope for follow-up research into the complexities of citizen and decision-maker values, attitudes and behaviour. Finally Chapter 7 applied a case study approach that enabled the textures of everyday life and risk to reveal themselves. No one method is recommended for other work on risk and disaster loss in African cities; each project needs to apply a method to support its philosophical position and project aims. If there is a criticism of the approaches used here it is perhaps that some, especially those applying a behavioural lens, were constrained by limited evidence – observations made by a few people in focus groups for example. Finally, this sort of research depends a good deal on the theoretical framework brought to it in the first place. In two of the AURAN cases, Saint-Louis and Kisumu/Kisii, the framework (and body of assumptions) guiding the work

208 A Vision for a Safer Urban Africa was behavioural. The object of theoretical interest and hence data collection was individual human behaviour – driving behaviour or household waste disposal behaviour. While useful, this is a limited perspective on its own. Other theoretical frameworks, for example the political economic or political ecological, can complement behavioural research and dig more deeply to investigate the root causes of such behaviour in terms of power relationships and access to resources (Pelling, 2003; Wisner et al, 2004). Indeed, the coupling of behavioural and structural analysis is a central philosophical and methodological concern of social science research, including that on disaster risk.

Overcoming the neglect of smaller urban places African towns of 10,000–50,000 inhabitants and many approaching 100,000 or more are quite likely to receive many rural–urban migrants over the next few decades, either as permanent new townspeople or as temporary movements in the course of step-wise migration toward larger centres. Unless all the talk at events such as the Rome Food Summit (June 2008) turns to action, the conditions of rural life and sustainability of livelihoods will continue to decline. Conflicts, small and large, will also continue. Both tend to push people from rural areas to small towns such as Goma in eastern DR Congo and Wau in Southern Sudan. Yet these small towns are very poorly served with infrastructure and urban finance, and their capacity for self-governance and planning is low. For example, few towns of this size actually have a lawyer working as a part of the city administration. It is difficult for such town councils to fully understand laws relating to planning, environmental quality and a host of urban issues, let alone enforce them. Global climate change could increase the proneness to flooding and landslides in some of these smaller towns, while growing populations may be situated in harm’s way. Planning, management and anticipatory capacity must increase if smaller central places are to avoid heavy human and financial losses.

Understanding and benefiting from rurbanization The peri-urban peripheries of many Africa cities provide a good deal of food security for urban dwellers. Also, in some cases, these lower-density areas are capable of absorbing people who agree to resettle themselves from high-density, highly hazardous inner-city areas. However these actual or potential benefits do not happen automatically. Vegetable, dairy and other agro-production in rurban Africa requires all-weather farm-to-market transport, fair market prices and protection from unregulated dumping of waste or poorly considered siting of polluting industries. Likewise, demographic infill of these areas resulting from resettlement requires consultation on all sides, compensation for people who become hosts for these new neighbours and clear land tenure arrangements. In the case of Saint-Louis, we saw that many difficulties stand in the way of reset-

Toward a Safer Urban Future 209 tling the long-established fishing communities from their unsanitary and floodprone locations to peri-urban locations. Similarly in Accra, Algiers, Cape Town and Dar es Salaam, while de-densification and relocation may seem logical options for risk-prone, high-density informal settlements, the economic, social and political challenges are very great.

A FINAL WORD Africa is on the threshold of a new reality. Already 40 per cent of the continent’s population is urban. With annual urban growth rates for sub-Saharan Africa the highest of any world region at 4.58 per cent (UN-HABITAT, 2007), the continent is forecast to reach an urban population of 50 per cent by 2025. For some people, Africa’s urban shift will bring opportunities for access to health care and education, and freedom from conflict. Urban areas provide economies of scale, bring human energy and ingenuity together, and can fulfil this promise. But without significant changes in urban governance and in the roles played by national governments, international NGOs and donors, and local actors alike, the urban future facing Africa and especially its poor majority is more likely to be characterized by increasing exposure to environmental, social and economic violence. This book has sought to open a dialogue on the opportunities and constraints that shape environmental risk in urban Africa and its governance. The work is a product of five years of collaboration through the AURAN network; collaboration that has led African scientists and practitioners in urban planning, engineering and development to question the ways in which risk is conceptualized and its management institutionalized in cities across Africa. As the case study chapters show, there is great diversity in the range of hazards facing Africa’s cities, in the size and status of cities and neighbourhoods at risk and in the capacities of citizens, civil society groups, governments and universities to map and respond to risk. The book is not an end but a beginning for those seeking to understand urban risk. Rapid urbanization means transformation in the way development is experienced. Academic and policy actors need to catch up with this new reality. Add to this transformation climate change, food, water and energy security concerns, and wider changes in the global political economy arising from the growth of China and India, and the pathways for Africa’s urban future are at the same time uncertain and full of opportunity. Integrating disaster risk reduction into planning and development processes requires getting urban planners, development workers and government administrators to see that risk reduction is something that is relevant to them and something that they should care about – something that is almost entirely missing in Africa today. International agendas for adaptation and mitigation to climate change can help add pressure for mainstreaming progressive policies in

210 A Vision for a Safer Urban Africa the areas of land use, access to basic services, strengthening of local economies and governance reform. However, for this to happen, local voices in Africa need to be heard. We hope the case studies in this book, and future work by AURAN partners and others in the field of urban risk management, will contribute to the democratizing of development and move towards achieving the human right to security from avoidable harm for all.

REFERENCES ActionAid (2004) Turning off the Taps: Donor Conditionality and Water Privatisation in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, www.actionaid.org.uk/_content/documents/TurningofftheTAps.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Castro, J. E. (2008) ‘Neoliberal water and sanitation policies as failed development strategy: Lessons from developing countries’, Progress in Development Studies, vol 8, no 1, pp63–83 Donini, A. (team leader), Fast, L., Hansen, G., Harris, S., Minear, L., Mowjee, T. and Wilder, A. (2008) Humanitarian Agenda 2015: The State of the Humanitarian Enterprise, Feinstein International Center, Tufts University, Medford, MA, http://fic.tufts.edu/ downloads/HA2015FinalReport.pdf accessed 29 July 2008 Gunewardena, N. and Schuller, M. (eds) (2008) Capitalizing on Catastrophe, Alta Mira Press, Lantham, MD McAuslan, P. (1985) Urban Land and Shelter for the Poor, Earthscan, London Ménard, C. and Clarke, G. (2000) Reforming the Water Supply in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No 2377, World Bank, Washington DC Montgomery, M. R., Stren, R., Cohen, B. and Reed, H. E. (2003) Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and its Implications in the Developing World, Earthscan, London Pelling, M. (2003) The Vulnerability of Cities: Social Resilience and Natural Disaster, Earthscan, London Tendler, J. (1997) Good Governance in the Tropics, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD Transparency International (2008) Global Corruption Report 2008, www.waterintegritynetwork.net/page/430/ [Water Integrity Network] and www.transparency.org/publications/gcr [Transparency International] accessed 30 July 2008 UN-HABITAT (United Nations Human Settlements Programme) (2007) Enhancing Urban Safety and Security: Global Human Settlements Report 2007, Earthscan, London Wisner, B. (1988) Power and Need in Africa, Earthscan, London. Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T. and Davis, I (2004) At Risk, 2nd Edition, Routledge, London World Bank (2008) Food Riots Hit West and Central Africa, 13 March, World Bank Information Center, World Bank, Washington DC, www.bicusa.org/en/Article.3702.aspx accessed 13 April 2008 World Economic Forum (2008) Africa@Risk, www.weforum.org/pdf/Africa2008/ Africa_RiskReport_08.pdf accessed 29 July 2008

Author Biographies

Khady Diagne holds an MSc in geography and has worked at the Urban Water and Sanitation Department and at the Camberene sewerage works in Senegal. She then joined ENDA-Tiers Monde’s Relay for Participatory Urban Development, where she managed several programmes including the Habitat and Sustainable Environment Network, relations between Governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) (the Gongo projects), the Social Production of Habitat and the programme on flooding in Saint Louis. She facilitates networks at regional and international levels, and is a member of both the board of directors and the executive committee of the Habitat International Coalition, as well as being a member of Africa’s Urban Risk Analysis Network (AURAN). She has co-authored many publications including ‘From local environmental initiatives to city management’, ‘Disaster risk reduction in West and Central Africa: Local initiatives’ and ‘Local development observatories: Regional policy dialogue on Social Production of Habitat’. Since June 2008, she has coordinated the African Civil Society Network on Water in Sanitation (ANEW) in the West African Region. The goal of this project is to reinforce the participation and coordination of African civil society organization voices in the formulation of policies and strategies in order to promote good management of water for the underprivileged. Contact: [email protected] Benouar Djillali (Eng., MSc, PhD, DIC) is a Professor in earthquake engineering at the University of Science & Technology Houari Boumediene (USTHB) and Director of the Built Environment Research Laboratory LBE (USTHB). He is an Associate Member of the Third World Academy of Science (TWAS) and a Senior Associate to the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). He has published widely on earthquake risk management and seismic hazard, and has acted as a consultant for the World Bank, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), the Arab League Educational, Cultural and Scientific Organization (ALECSO) and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR). In 2005 he was awarded the UNESCO-GADR-AWARD2005 for disaster risk reduction. Contact: [email protected] Dr Robert Kiunsi is a Senior Lecturer and a Director of postgraduate studies, research and publication at Ardhi University (Tanzania), in the School of Environmental Science and Technology, Department of Environmental Science and Management. In addition to teaching undergraduate and postgraduate students, Dr Kiunsi is also engaged in research and consultancy activities in environmental planning, environmental assessment, disaster risk reduction and natural resources assessment using remote sensing and geographical information systems. He has a PhD in land degradation from the University of Cape Town; a Masters in environmental planning and rural ecology survey from Nottingham University and ITC in The Netherlands, respectively; a Postgraduate Diploma in rural ecology and survey; and a

212 Disaster Risk Reduction Diploma in urban and rural ecology survey. Dr Kiunsi has authored a number of publications mainly on land degradation and disaster risk reduction. Contact: [email protected] Dr John Modestus Lupala took a PhD in built environment analysis at the Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm in 2002. He is now a Senior Lecturer and Dean of the School of Urban and Regional Planning at Ardhi University. He is a Council Member of the Tanzania Association of Planners. Before joining the University in 1991, Dr Lupala worked as a Town Planner in the Capital Development Authority from 1987–1991. As a Lecturer and Researcher, he has participated in several research and consultancy projects focusing on urban planning and design theory, landscape design, sustainable urban transportation, community-based upgrading, conflicts in community-managed projects, informal urbanization and regularization, and inner city redevelopment dynamics. He has been a consultant to Local Government Authorities, the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlement Development, the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), the World Bank and other international agencies. Abdoulaye Ndiaye has a Masters degree in legal studies and certificate from the Senegal’s National College of Administration (ENAM). Abdoulaye Ndiaye has spent a long career in Senegalese government service, occupying a number of management positions, including 10 years as Director of Civil Protection in the Ministry of Interior, from 1994–2006. He is very active professionally in the area of natural hazard risk reduction in Senegal and abroad. Notably, he was coordinator of the working group concerned with the Charter between the Government of Senegal and the National Council of Employers concerning prevention of risk and the management of industrial accidents and disasters (2002); national focal point for the International Civil Protection Organization (1995–2006) and for UN-ISDR; and coordinator of the multi-sectoral working group that included the disaster risk reduction dimension in the national Strategy for Poverty Reduction (PRSP). He collaborated in editing the 2005–2006 report on ‘Civil protection, sustainable development and disaster risk reduction in Senegal’, as well as the 2008 ProVention Consortium and ENDA-Rup publication ‘Local perspectives on disaster risk reduction in West and Central Africa’. Ana Peña del Valle holds a PhD in human geography from King’s College London, and completed a BSc in biology in the Faculty of Science, and an MSc in environmental geography (awarded with distinction in 2003) in the Faculty of Philosophy and Arts, both at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). She has seven years of experience working in development agencies and consultancy, and four as a research assistant in diverse projects of the Institute of Geography and the Centre of Atmospheric Sciences at UNAM. She has participated in several projects involving INGOs such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), as well as national governmental ministries. Her focus and interests are climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience, environmental policy and management and rural–urban development. She is currently working on issues related to the dynamism of vulnerable groups and processes alongside the simultaneous responses that are developed to face changing conditions in socio-economic and environmental terms. Currently, Ana is visiting fellow at IIED, and visiting scholar in the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP). She is also working in collaboration with the Centre of Atmospheric Sciences (UNAM). Contact: [email protected] Mark Pelling is Reader in human geography at King’s College London. His research interests are in the theory and practice of disaster risk reduction, including adaptation to climate change. His research focuses on Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, but has also

Author Biographies 213 included European countries and communities. He is author of The Vulnerability of Cities: Social Resilience and Natural Disaster (2003, Earthscan) and Natural Disasters and Development in a Globalizing World (2003, Routledge), as well as numerous academic papers and book chapters. He has acted as consultant for the Department of International Development (DFID), UNDP, UN-HABITAT, Tearfund and ProVention Consortium. He is Chair of the Climate Change Research Group of the Royal Geographical Society, London. Contact: [email protected] Robyn Pharoah is a doctoral candidate at the University of Cape Town in South Africa working on urban risk reduction and early warning. She has a background in development policy research on a range of socio-economic and health issues in South and Southern Africa. Contact: [email protected] Jacob Songsore is a Professor of geography with specialization in urban studies and regional development planning. He has researched extensively on many themes including urban and rural–regional development in the context of structural adjustment and globalization, urban environmental health, gender and environmental care and inequalities and development. Although his primary research focus has been on Ghana, he has co-edited a publication on ‘Urban health in developing countries’ and co-authored a book titled: The Citizens at Risk: From Urban Sanitation to Sustainable Cities (2001, Earthscan). He has been the study team leader of a trans-disciplinary team of scholars who have been working on the environmental question of the capital city of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area in Ghana for well over 15 years. He was the Dean of the School of Research and Graduate Studies of the University of Ghana from October 2003 to July 2007, and has been a member of the New York Academy of Sciences since 1995. He was elected Fellow of the Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2006. He is a member of AURAN. Contact: [email protected] Ben Wisner has been involved in African development issues since 1966, when he lived for two years in a Tanzanian ujamaa village and experienced his first village residential fire, first flood and first drought. His PhD field research was on how farmers cope with drought in eastern Kenya (1971–1976). He taught community health at Dar es Salaam medical school (1972–1974) and population geography in Maputo, Mozambique (1978–1980). His more recent African work includes studies of flooding in Malawi, Mozambique and South Africa, and flood and drought in Tanzania. Earlier he contributed the environmental technical background to post-conflict planning by a range of Somali scholars and clan representatives, as well as UN and NGO reports on a variety of development issues in Lesotho and Botswana. He was leader of a United Nations University research project on urban social vulnerability in six megacities, including greater Johannesburg (1998–2002), and was lead author of At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters, 2nd Edition (2004, Routledge), lead editor of Towards a New Map of Africa (2005, Earthscan), as well as the earlier Earthscan book Power and Need in Africa (1988). He collaborates with the ProVention Consortium as consultant and acts as adviser to the UN-ISDR, United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security and a number of INGOs. His research affiliations include hazard, risk and crisis-related institutes at the London School of Economicss, University College London, Northumbria University, Durham University and Oberlin College, Ohio. Contact: [email protected] Andre Yitambe is a Lecturer at Kenyatta University, Department of Public Health. From 1999–2002, he was an Assistant Lecturer at Moi University, Faculty of Health Sciences, Kenya. He is a member of the International Research Committee on Disaster (RC39). He contributed to the launch of AURAN funded by UNDP and ProVention Consortium. He is also a member of Gender Disaster Network (GDN).

214 Disaster Risk Reduction Andre’s co-authors are: James Onyango Okello, a public health student at Kenyatta University, Department of Public Health. He teaches at the Kenya Medical Training College, Kisumu, Kenya. C. M. Ooko Nguka, a public health student at Kenyatta University, Department of Public Health who teaches at the Kenya Medical Training College, Kisii, Kenya. Caroline Adongo Ochieng, a Tutorial Fellow at Kenyatta University, Department of Public Health and PhD student at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Currently she is conducting research on climate change and food insecurity in arid and semiarid lands of Kenya, funded by ProVention Consortium. Contact: [email protected]

Index

AARSE 208 academia 208 Accra climate change and 72–73, 77, 80, 204 colonial period 68 development planning 68–69, 81 disaster risks 71–72, 77–80 diseases 68, 70–71, 75 earthquakes 72, 77–79, 82 emerging trends 80–81 environmental burdens 73–75 environmental health monitoring 11, 65–82 methods 69, 197 results 73–81 everyday risks 69–71 floods 71–72, 77, 78, 82 GAMA 68–69 HIV/AIDS 79–80, 82 housing 68 local governance 202 maps 67, 74, 76 policy issues 68–69, 81–82 population 68 relocation 81, 211 sea-level rise 72, 203 social inequality 75–77, 81 squatter settlements 80 urban environmental transition model 7 water pollution 70, 203 accumulation of risk Algiers 174–179 Cape Town informal settlements 110–112 critical infrastructure 51–52 Dar es Salaam 132–135 Kenya 99–100 process 34–37 Saint-Louis 150–156

ActionAid 198 African Centre for Technology Studies 206 African Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction 148 African Urban Risk Analysis Network (AURAN) 5–6, 14, 106, 161, 207, 209, 210 agricultural subsidies 40 aircraft crashes 26 air pollution 30, 174–175, 205 Algeria Algiers See Algiers building seismic code 180 centralized state 180, 196, 199, 201 earthquakes 169 Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative 52 National Land Use Planning Model 48 waste management 175 water supply 177 Algiers Bab El Oued 15, 170–173, 178 civil society 174 deforestation 178 earthquake risk reduction 15, 179–181 awareness 179–180 recommendations 182 regulation 181 research 179, 180 risk analysis 181, 183–191 earthquakes 179 floods 4, 170, 178 historical development 171–172 industrial pollution 174 informal settlements 174 landslides 174, 178 local governance 180, 202 maps 171, 172, 173 marine pollution 177 population 170

216 Disaster Risk Reduction relocation 209 representative structure 173 research methodology 172–173 risk reduction recommendations 181–182 risks 174–179 soil pollution 177 traffic accidents 179 urbanization 170–173 waste pollution 175–176 water pollution 176–177 Angola 32 audits 165

Benin 30, 147 Bhopal disaster 36 Body-Gendrot, Sophie 32 Botswana 30 brain drain 24 Brazil 50, 198 building collapses 27, 35 building control 44, 51–52 Bursa, M. 51 Burundi 4, 199

Cairo 20, 55 Cameroon 25, 28, 199 capacity-building 56–57, 101, 162 Cape Town city of contrasts 106–108 context 108–110 DesInventar database 114 fires alcohol abuse 113 arson 113 building materials 113, 122 distribution 117, 121 domestic violence 113 electricity 113 factors 123 firebreaks and roads 120–121 infrastructure 111 losses 119–20, 121 MANDISA project 114–123 numbers 118–119 recommendations 123 research results 116–123 residential density 119, 120 risks 12–13, 105–106, 112–114

weather factors 113–114, 122 housing 109–110, 121 informal settlements 105, 107–108 accumulation of risk 110–112 climate change 110, 114 diseases 109 fire risks 12–13, 105–106, 112–114 floods 110–111, 112 poverty 108–109 wetlands 111–112 local governance 109, 196, 202 planning 107, 123 population 106 relocation 211 Cape Verde 51 Catholic Relief Services 55–56 cement 175 Centre for Economic Policy Analysis 206 Chama Cha Maendeleo (CCM) 139–140 Chama Cha Uchumi (CCU) 139–140 Chambers, Robert 4, 36 chiefs 37 child mortality, MDG 155 child soldiers 31 China 198 cholera 4, 14, 25, 70, 131, 141, 142, 143 civil conflicts 32, 37, 93, 199 civil society advocacy work 206 Algiers 174 Dar es Salaam 46, 139–140, 198 donor-defined priorities 201 functions 40 informal settlements 24 NGO patronage 198 Saint-Louis 196, 198 strengthening 202–203 under-engagement with risk 201 urban safety role 45–46 climate change Accra 72–73, 77, 80 Cape Town and 110, 114 global environmental change 203–204 infrastructures and 199 Senegal 155 UN Framework Convention 149 urban disasters 3–4, 7, 196–197 coastal storms 17, 28, 33 coherence 197–199 colonialism 17–18, 37, 52 commodity markets 7

Index 217 communicable diseases 66 Comoros Islands 28 Congo (DRC) 29, 30, 58, 199 cooperation 197, 201 corruption 9, 35, 95, 101, 102, 165, 202, 205 CORUS/GESCAN 160 Costa Rica 50 crime 4, 31–32, 205 customary law 37

dams 151, 152, 158–159 Dar es Salaam adult literacy 46 air pollution 30, 205 building collapses 35 case studies 135–145 Chang’ombe Toroli unplanned settlement 137 methodology 135–136 Msasani Bonde La Mpunga unplanned settlement 137 Vingunguti unplanned settlement 136–137 civil society 46, 139–140, 198 climate change and 204 colonialism 128 disaster risk reduction 135 economic conditions 131 electricity cuts 203 historical development 128–129 housing 129–130 informal employment 127, 134 land tenure 134–135 land use 132–134 local governance 129, 131–132, 202 map 133 population 128, 129 pre-colonial city 17, 128 public utilities 134 relocation 145, 209 risk accumulation 132–135 sanitation 131 sea-level rise 203 social services 134 unplanned settlements 127, 128, 132–134 case studies 135–145 CBOs 139, 140 Chang’ombe 137

diseases 141–143 fires 143–144 flood coping strategies 139–140 floods 138 Msasani Bonde La Mpunga 137 occupational risks 144 traffic accidents 144 unguided building in hazardous areas 138–140 Vingunguti 136–137 waste management 140–141 water pollution 140–141 urbanization 127–131 US embassy bombing 32 water supply 131, 203 wetland development 137, 138, 198 databases 11, 12, 25–7, 55, 69, 106, 114, 147, 206–208 decentralization 22, 34, 45, 202 deforestation 178 Delphi technique 73 demography of Africa population density 18 urban population 21, 22–24 DesInventar database 114 detribalization 37 development planning audits 165 community-led planning 49 critical infrastructure 51 land use planning 34–36, 48–50 long-term approaches 164–165 risk reduction and 43, 46–47, 48–51 transport 50 diarrhoea 31, 54, 66, 70, 87, 141 DiMP 6, 12–13, 106, 111, 116, 206 disaster risk reduction See urban disaster risk reduction disasters See urban disaster risk diseases Accra 68, 70–71, 75 African diseases 66 Cape Town 109 Dar es Salaam 141–143 environment-related diseases 66 impact on Africa 65–66 Millennium Development Goals 155 Djibouti 17 Dobson, A. 72 Donini, A. 197 Drasar, B. S. 70

218 Disaster Risk Reduction drinking water 45, 51, 109, 140–141, 142 drought 6, 25 Dubression, A. 36 dysentery 4, 131, 141, 143

early warning systems 44, 57–58, 158–159 earthquakes Accra 72, 77–79, 82 Algeria 169, 179–181 hazards 25, 29 Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative 52, 57–58 education, MDG 154 Egypt 20, 49, 52, 55, 203 electricity 51, 113, 143, 203 elites 36, 37, 200 EM-DAT 25–7, 147 emergency management 43 employment health and safety 144 informal employment 23–24 ENDA-Tiers Monde 14, 150, 156, 160–162 energy production 203–204 environment See also climate change environmental health, Accra 11, 65–82 global environment change 203–204 Millennium Development Goals 155–156 urban environmental transition model 7 epidemics 4, 25, 27, 34, 68, 70, 71, 79, 80, 201 Ethiopia 17–18, 28, 29 Evangelical Association of Malawi 47 everyday disasters 11–12, 65 explosions 6, 26, 29–30, 58, 201

FAO, water guidelines 52 Fargues, P. 71 farming subsidies 40 ferry boat sinking 26 fires Cape Town 12–13, 112–123 Dar es Salaam 143–144 hazards 25, 29–30 media reports 26 shack fires 30, 34 floods

Algiers 4, 170, 178 Ghana 71–72, 77, 78, 82, 147 hazards 3–4, 25, 28 international assumptions 25 Kenya 4, 90, 91 Mozambique 4, 28, 55, 201 Senegal 19, 147, 150–151, 153–154, 156–166, 158 South Africa 28, 110–111, 112 Tanzania 4, 135, 138–140 West Africa 147 food insecurity 6–7, 25, 58, 153 foreign direct investment 7, 35, 198 France 198

Gaborone, origins 17 Gaeghe, T. V. 71 Gambia 4 gender equality 155 geographical information systems 11, 54, 69, 114, 160, 195 Germany 128 Ghana See also Accra academics and development 206 agriculture 80 Centre for Economic Policy Analysis 206 electricity supply 203 floods 147 Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy 81 National Disaster Management Organization 5 polio 81, 82 privatizations 202 squatter settlements 80, 81 structural adjustments 80 vaccinations 81 water supply 203 Weija Dam 80–81 Ghana Water Company 80–81 Global Corruption Report 202 globalization challenge 198–199 commodity markets 7 economic benefits 204–205 TNCs 35 Global Risk Network Briefing 199 governance

Index 219 See also decentralization; local government coherence 197–199 globalization and 198–199 good governance 202 ineffective states 198 informal settlements 24 risk reduction challenges 197–199 street level bureaucracy 198 greenhouse gases 36, 50, 203 Groundwork 57

Harare 17, 24, 52 Harmattan 71 hazards anthropogenic and technological 29–31 mitigation 56–57 natural hazards 28–29 overview 25–34 poverty 36 priorities 200–201 public health 31 social hazards 31–32 HIV/AIDS 31, 40, 56, 69, 79–80, 82, 109, 201 Huchzermeyer, Marie 107, 109 human capital 206 human security crisis 8–10 Hyogo Framework for Action 103, 148, 149, 150, 163, 198

illness See diseases IMF 34, 131 India 36, 198 indigenous knowledge 206 industrial pollution 7–8, 52, 57, 174 informal employment 23–24, 131, 134 informal settlements Algiers 174 Cape Town See Cape Town Dar es Salaam 127 disaster risks 52 Ghana 80 governance 24 growth 5, 200 process 19 shack fires 30 youth in 23 infrastructure climate change and 203–204

planning critical infrastructure 44, 48, 51, 56, 164 private sector role 45 privatizations 199 risk assessment 55 Institute of Democratic Governance 206 institutions, disaster risk management 47 International Institute for Environment and Development 3–4, 33 International Labour Organization 131 International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR) 39, 51, 58 Islam, sanitation and 162 Ivory Coast 7, 198–199

Jakarta 7 Jaxaay Plan 158 Johannesburg 4–5, 32, 53

Kenya academics and development 206 arson 4 car ownership 87, 196 civil conflicts 32, 37, 93, 199 colonial towns 17 corruption 95, 101, 102 disasters 38, 90–91 floods 4, 90, 91 growth centre policy 90 inter-tribal violence 24 land use planning 49 local governance 204 matatus 12, 92, 95, 98, 100 Nairobi 28, 32, 35 National Disaster Management Policy 90–91, 101 poverty 88, 93, 99–100 regulation as risk reduction strategy 101 risk accumulation 99–100 slums 37 social hazards 93 structural adjustments 88 terrorism 32, 93 traffic accidents 30–31 1998–2006 trends 92 behavioural research 207–209 case study 11–12, 93–99 factors 94–95, 96–97, 98–99 incidence 87

220 Disaster Risk Reduction Kisii 94, 96–98 Kisumu 93, 94–96, 99 recommendations 102–103 resilience building 101 types of injuries 98 traffic regulation 53–54, 92 attitudes to 95–96, 97, 98, 99 impact 100, 101 political resistance 102–103 tsunami 29 urban centres 88, 90 urbanization 20, 88–90 volcanoes 29 Kisii See Kenya Kisumu See Kenya

Lagos 20, 29, 55, 58 landslides 4, 12, 28, 36, 49, 94, 174, 178, 208 land tenure 38, 44, 199 land use planning 48–50 large disasters 14–15 law See regulation Liberia 30 LINKS Africa 206 local government Algiers 180, 202 capacities 45, 56, 204 Dar es Salaam 129, 131–132, 202 importance 43–45 risk reduction and 38–39, 43–45, 196 Saint-Louis 159–164, 202 South Africa 109 Los Angeles 55 Lusaka 17 Lyonnaise-des-Eaux 198–199

McAuslan, P. 200 McGranahan, G. 7, 36, 72 Madagascar 28, 51, 55–56 malaria 4, 31, 40, 66, 70, 82, 138, 141, 155, 201 Malawi 17, 22, 23, 28, 29, 47 Mali 17, 45, 51, 71, 159 Mamdani, M. 37 MANDISA 112 difficulties and constraints 115–116 insights 116–123 meaningful data 206

objectives 106 overview 12–13, 114–123 marine pollution 177 mass movements 28 matatus 12, 92, 95, 98, 100 Mauritania 152, 159 measles 71, 81, 82 media 26–27, 33, 139, 166 mega-cities 20 melting pot 37 meningitis 71, 81 microcredit 56 migration, motivation 3 Millennium Development Goals child mortality 155 diseases 155 education 154 environmental sustainability 155–156 gender equality 155 Ghana 81 life of slum dwellers 39 objectives 148 Saint-Louis flood risk reduction and 165–166 Mogadishu 17, 24, 32 Mondi 57 Moreno, E. L. 31 Morocco 46–47, 52 Morrissey, J. 113, 122 Mozambique civil war 32 colonial towns 17 earthquakes 29 floods 4, 28, 55, 199 private sector 45 schools 51 sea-level rise 203 slum upgrading 56 mudslides 4, 28 Munich Reinsurance 55

Nairobi 28, 32, 35 Nassour, O. 71 natural resources 204–205 neighbourhood committees 39 NGOs See civil society Niger, floods 147 Nigeria environmental degradation 198 explosions 29, 58

Index 221 floods 147 Lagos 20, 29, 55, 58 measles 71 origins of cities 17 pollution control 53 social unrest 198, 199 noise 142

public health Accra 65–82 Dar es Salaam 134 hazards 31 monitoring 54 Senegal 155–156 public utilities 35, 134, 198

oil revenues 35 Omani Arabs 17

Raison, J.-P. 36 RAPOA 206 reconstruction planning 58–59 Red Cross/Red Crescent 45, 135 regulation risk reduction strategy 101 traffic regulation 53–54, 101 relocation 204 research data 206–208 Reunion 28 riots 3, 7, 27, 32, 35, 199, 205 risk See urban disaster risk risk accumulation See accumulation of risk risk management building local resilience 56–57 hazard mitigation 56–57 overview 54–57 vulnerability and risk assessment 54–56 vulnerability reduction 56–57 risk response early warning systems 57–58 emergency response 58–59 overview 57–59 reconstruction planning 58–59 road traffic See traffic accidents rural Africa paradigm 6, 18 rurbanization 19, 34–5, 127, 199, 208–209 Rwanda 4, 28

PADE 14, 161 Pakistan 36 participatory research 207 Pascual, M. 72 Pelling, Mark 9, 36, 38–39, 43–44 Peri Peri 206 PLAN International 143 planning, land use 34–36, 44, 48–50 policy issues 47, 68–69, 81–82 polio 81, 82 politics 5, 9–10, 24, 102–103 pollution air pollution 30, 174–175, 205 Algiers 174–178 control 52–53 industrial pollution 7–8, 52, 57, 174 marine pollution 177 soil pollution 177 unregulated cities 36 waste pollution 175–176 water pollution 70, 140–141, 176–177, 203 poverty abject poverty 127–128 Cape Town 108–109 Dar es Salaam 127–128 factors 198 fourfold burden 36 growing inequalities 205 hazard 36 Kenya 88, 93, 99–100 Senegal 153 urbanization and 127–128 poverty reduction strategy programmes 39 Practical Action 49 private sector 45, 201 privatizations 35, 45, 51, 134, 198, 202–203 ProVention Consortium 6, 55–56

Saint-Louis, Senegal colonial core v periphery 35 economic conditions 153 flood coping strategies 153–154 flood risk reduction 14–15, 156–166 awareness raising 160–161, 165 Barbary Spit runoff canal 159–160 behavioural research 207–208 capacity-building 162 case studies 159–164 civil society 196, 198 coordination 163

222 Disaster Risk Reduction expectations 156–157 flood prevention works 156 institutional framework 156–157 Khor dike-road 159 lessons learned 163 link to dams 158–159 local government initiatives 159–164, 202 long-termism 164–165 MDGs and 165–166 modern technology 160 peak flow protection 159–160 power 163 problems and solutions 162 recommendations 164–166 resources 163–164, 165 sanitation 155–156, 162 warning system 158–159 waste management 162 women 155 floods 19, 150–151 geography 151 housing 152 maps 148, 154 PADE 14, 161 population 20, 152–153 relocation 153, 157, 164–165, 208–209 risk accumulation 150–156 sanitation 155–156, 156 sea-level rise 203 unplanned settlements 152 urban structure 151 view 152 waste management 155, 162 San Francisco 55 sanitation Cape Town 109 critical infrastructure 51 Dar es Salaam 131 hazards 25, 31 infrastructures 199 peripheral sprawls 36 Saint-Louis 155–156, 162 Sao Paulo 7 satellite image technology 150 Satterthwaite, David 37–38 Senegal See also Saint-Louis cemeteries 153 conflict with Mauritania (1989) 152 dams 151, 152, 158–159

desertification 152 disaster risk reduction 148–150 floods 147, 158 food insecurity 153 Jaxaay Plan 158 map 148 PADE 14, 161 poverty 153 poverty reduction strategies 155 riots 199 Sierra Leone 32, 51 Singapore 50 sink holes 30 slums definition 19 growth 20, 200 informality 200 percentage of population in 20 road traffic risks 50 sanitation 31 upgrading 49 young population 23 small disasters 12–14 smaller towns 20–22, 208 social contract 8–10 social hazards 31–32, 93 soil pollution 177 Somalia 17, 24, 29, 32, 37 Songsore, Jacob 65 South Africa academics and development 206 air pollution 30 anti-migrant violence 37, 199, 205 apartheid 107, 123 Cape Town See Cape Town coastal storms 28 DiMP 6, 12–13, 106, 111, 116, 206 Disaster Management Act (2003) 47 floods 28 Gauteng Province 20, 106 industrial pollution 57 informal settlements 105 Johannesburg 4–5, 32, 53 landslides 28 local government 109 MANDISA See MANDISA murders 31 natural resources 204 privatizations 202 radioactive pollution 52–53 right to clean water 203

Index 223 road safety campaign 53 schools 51 sink holes 30 slum upgrading 49 social contract 9–10 traffic regulation 54 urban centres 105 stereotypes 18, 25, 32 structural adjustment plans 34, 80, 88, 131 subsidence 30 subsidies 40 Sudan 28, 198

Tanzania See also Dar es Salaam academics and development 206 cholera 141 colonial towns 17 construction guidelines 144 crime 37 disaster risk reduction 135 floods 4, 135 food security 22 government violence 4 malaria 141 origins of cities 17 pollution standards 52 railway derailments 31 riots 199 schools 51 street vendors 24 structural adjustment plans 131 traffic accidents 144 tsunamis 29 volcanoes 29 Taylor, A. 113, 122 Tearfund 47 techniques of risk reduction development planning 43, 46–47, 48–51 development regulation 51–54 overview 47–59 regulation strategy 101 risk management 54–57 risk response 57–59 technological gap 196 telecommunications 51 Tendler, Judith 198 terrorism 32, 93 Third World Network 206 Tokyo 55

tourism 35 toxic chemicals 6, 36 toxic waste 7 traffic accidents Algiers 179 hazards 30–31 Kenya See Kenya media reports 26 rates 87 Tanzania 144 transnational companies 35 transparency 202 transport networks 51 planning 50 traffic regulation 53–54 tsunamis 29, 57 tuberculosis 82, 87, 109 Tunisia 49 typhoid 70, 131

Uganda 4, 29, 52, 199 UNDP 6, 19 UNEP 20 UN-HABITAT 19, 20, 48, 56 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 149 International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction 29, 39 RADIUS programme 29 urban disaster risk acceptable risk 9 accumulation See accumulation of risk changing benchmarks 9 continuum 32–34, 38 everyday disasters 11–12 false assumptions 6, 18 hazards 25–34 identification 5 large disasters 14–15 overview 25–34 politics 9–10 reasons to care 6–8 small disasters 12–14 urban disaster risk reduction activities 44 actors 43–46 approaches 37–9 collective local action 4–5

224 Disaster Risk Reduction cooperation 197, 201 development planning 43, 46–51 development regulation 51–54 formal approaches 38–39 governance challenges 197–199 informal approaches 37–38 institutions 47 local government and 38–39, 43–45, 196 options 46–48 pathways 9 policies 47 politics 5, 9–10 professional practice 43, 44 recommendations 200–209 regulation strategies 101 risk management 54–57 risk response 57–59 science 9 Senegal 148–150 social contract 8–10 Tanzania 135 techniques 47–59 technological gap 196 urban environmental transition model 7 urbanization of Africa Algiers 170–173 cities of contrasts 35–6, 106–108, 200 climate change and 3–4, 196–197 colonial period 17–18 crime 4, 31–32, 205 Dar es Salaam 127–131 debate 37 demography 22–4 forms 19 governance 10, 24, 37 growth 3, 5, 10, 19–20, 211 hazards 25–34 informal employment 23–4 infrastructure 19, 35 Islamic design 17–18 Kenya 88–90 mega-cities 20 melting pot or battle ground 37 modernization and 37 overview 17–24 party politics 24 peripheral developments 35–36 planning 34–36 poverty 36, 127–128 processes 8, 37 smaller towns 20–22, 208

violence 3 urban planning 34–36, 44, 48–50

vaccinations 81 Vingunguti Miembeni Development Association (VIMIDA) 139–140 volcanoes 4, 29, 30, 33, 58 Volta Aluminium Company 203–204

Warah, R. 31 waste dumping of hazardous waste 30 management 36, 140–141, 155, 175 pollution 175–176 transfers 7 water international guidelines 52 levels 9 pollution 70, 140–141, 176–177, 203 privatizations 51, 198–199 right to clean water 203 security 6 wetlands 111–112, 196 Wisner, Ben 22, 166 women, flood risk reduction 155 Women and Shelter Network 48 World Bank 22, 34, 39, 45, 46, 131, 139, 198, 202, 203 World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR) 149 World Economic Forum 201 World Health Organization 52, 65–66, 81, 87, 175 World Seismic Safety Institute 52 World Summit on Hunger (Rome, 2008) 40

yellow fever 68, 81 young people criminal gangs 205 risks 201 slum dwellers 22–23

Zambia 52 Zanzibar, Sultan of 128 Zimbabwe 4, 28, 199 See also Harare