TRADING
AND
Joe Ross
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Table of Contents Introduction ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .• 9 Foreword ....................................................... 11 Preface ......................................................... 13 Chapter 1 What is a "Spread?" .•...•.•.•.•••...•.•••..••.••••..••• 15 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6
Why Use Spreads? ..•.....•.....•..•.•.••.•••.•••••.•.• 21 How to Trade Spreads to Reduce Risk ...••..•.•••••••.•.•• 29 Seasonal Spread Trade Selection ....•••••••.•..•...•.••.. 45 Filtering Process: Checking the Fundamentals Filtering Process: Time Window
•••.•••.•••.• 53
..•..•.•.••••••.•••.•.•.• 61
Chapter 7 Filtering Process: Entry and Exit Signals •..•..•..••....••• 67 Chapter 8 Seasonal Spread Examples ...........••..•••.•..••••..•• 75 Chapter 9 Non-Seasonal Spreads ..•........•......••...•••.••.•••• 89 Chapter 10 Fractional Spreads ......•..•...•.......••.••.•.••...•. 97 Chapter 11 Conversions .....•..•...•...•..•.....•.•..••..•.•••.• 103 Chapter 12 Using Spreads to Reduce Volatility ....•...••.••.••..••.• 111 Chapter 13 Trading Spreads Using Technical Indicators .•.•••.••..••. 119 Chapter 14 Technical Filtering for Spreads .••••••..•••..•.••..•.••• 127 Chapter 15 Chapter 16 Chapter 17 Chapter 18
Seasonal Spread Trading wl Bollinger Bands and RSI Introducing Seasonals
•..••• 147
.•.....••..••..•.•..•..•..•..•.. 165
What is a "Seasonal?" ......•...•.•••.••••••.••.•••.••. 167 Seasonal Futures Market Selection •••...•••.•..••••.•••. 173
Chapter 19 Seasonal Futures Trade Selection ••••..••••.•.•••.•••••• 177 Chapter 20 Outright Seasonal Futures: Checking the Fundamentals ..•• 179 Chapter 21 Seasonal Futures: Time Window •.••••••••••.••••••••.•• 187 Chapter 22 Seasonal Futures w/Chart Patterns and Bollinger Bands •••• 195 Chapter 23 Chapter 24 Chapter 25 Chapter 26 Chapter 27
Thinking and Trading Go Together ••.••..••••••••••••.•• 219 Beware of Stop Running ..•.•••..•..••••••••••••••••••• 229 Carrying Charge Spreads ••.••.•••.•••••••.••.••••••••• 253 Converting Daytrades to Spreads
••.•••••••••••••.••.••• 259
Wrap-Up .........••..•••••..••..•.•••••••.••••••.••• 263
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Table of Contents Appendix A Chart Patterns for Outright Seasonal Futures ............. 271 Appendix B Decision Tables ..................................... 307 Appendix C Resources .......................................... 321 Index
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Introduction Joe has done it again in his seventh published volume: Trading Spreads and Seasonals: a down-toearth, easy-to-read common sense book for the practical commodity futures trader Turn off your "black box" and computer, and learn about the real-live facets of trading spreads and seasonals, as Joe takes your hand and leads you through the sometimes tricky mechanics of intra and intennarket spreads and looks through the mostly predictable windows of opportunity offered in seasonal trading. The answers to he whats and whys of spreading and seasonal trading are explained in plain, precise language which should be easily understood by old timer and new trader alike. Joe's famous "Ross Hook" is used in great detail in the spread and seasonal examples, and his filtering processes, entry and exit signaJs, and other technical studies are well founded. The examples shown are excellent. The use of "Bollinger Bands" and RSI, as applied to spreads are unique, and are as important as those used in open positions. Joe pulls it all together: the fundamentals, the technicals, and the histories, to produce state-ofthe-art solutions to the oldest of commodity trades, spreads and seasonals In reviewing my past 46 years of trading seasonals and spreads, and as publisher of a commodity futures spread newsletter for many years, I found Joe's Trading Spreads and Seasonals a refreshing, informative, and rewarding work. Bob McGovern Laguna Niguel, CA
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Foreword I have corresponded with JoeRoss for over a year, initially discussing several educational essays he kindly contributed to the monthly Moore Research Center Report. More recently our conversations have centered on an objective critique of this book as a work-in-progress. Joe was always concerned with accuracy and validity. He wished not only to confirm the legitimacy of what he was presenting but also to be sure it was in no way misleading. So, these first comments are directed more to the man than to the book. My impression of Ioe Ross is that he is an honest man-tough but honest. I mean honest in a larger sense. He appears to be open and earnest in his efforts to share some of the vast trading wisdom he has accumulated in his nearly 40 years of trading futures. I mean tough because he views "trading as a business" not to be taken lightly. He does not appear to one who wishes merely to avoid "fabrication of fact" and, therefore, regulatory wrath. Yes, he probably has an ego ,that hopes this book becomes a classic. Yes, he is likely a confirmed capitalist who wants his book to sell-but, I don't believe he merely wants to take the money and run. I think Ioe honestly wants to help narrow a gap in knowledge. Some may decry this in the foreword to a book about speculating in a dog-eat-dog industry. However, I would submit that ,the business breeds a certain degree of cynicism. How many advertisements have you seen for the latest" 'must have' new system, guaranteed to ,.. ?" How many seminars will unlock for the first time ever "the 'ultimate' secrets" to unlimited profits? How many times could you have spent several thousand dollars for a "breakthrough that reveals market destiny?" How many books offer "my insider strategy"-to which the author himself no longer adheres? In Trading Spreads and Seasonals there may be no "black boxes," no "foolproof" techniques, no sophisticated complexity, but there are straightforward trading tactics. It may not be a literary masterpiece; but, in providing basics that every trader, both novice and professional, should know, it reads as though the author practices what he preaches. After trading spreads and seasonals for so long, he still trades them. Why? Because they have always been excellent trading vehicles and they always will be. Furthermore, they each offer their own specific advantages, and once understood, neither is especially difficult.
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Trading spreads fell out of favor in the early 1980' s when revised tax codes removed favorable treatment for long-term capital gains. Funds don't concentrate on spreads, and very little literature on the subject has appeared recently. A generation of futures traders (time is compressed in this industry) have never learned either the art or the science of trading relationships. Trading Spreads and Seasonals can help fill that void. Ioe defines spreads, describes their various types, points out in which markets they are most viable, and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. This book is not a theoretical, conceptual treatise, however. It takes a hands-on, howto approach in not illustrating only those spreads which succumb to his theories. He wants to educate readers for real-time trading-how to find spreads, filter them, analyze them, and place orders. He also shows how just a couple of well-known technical indicators can further filter and enhance entry and exit. Old-time fundamental traders (pre-1970's) used to rely on seasonal tendencies for consistency in their trading approach. After the huge inflationary bull markets of the 1970's, the marketplace was flooded with a new breed of traders who had no knowledge of, no time to learn, and cared little about a market's own tendencies, the normal effect on prices caused by the annual rhythm in supply/demand. Computers, trading systems, and technical concepts ruled instead. Even with their access to the most current market fundamental conditions, you may rest assured that commercial interests are aware of and often rely on seasonal tendencies. Their own market activity is dictated by shifts in supply and demand. However, those shifts which are annual in nature. (big new supplies at harvest, temporarily reduced monetary liquidity after April 15) must be anticipated by commercial firms who intend to stay in business. Therefore, those who are aware of a market's own historical trading patterns may more consistently be able to trade with, rather than against, the most knowledgeable and deepest pockets in the industry. Ioe is one of the few in recent years to consider how those historical tendencies can be analyzed for trading in current real-time. Historical tendencies are powerful tools, but in practice most traders need to maintain some flexibility and use some judgment. This book helps demystifY seasonal price movement. As you read through Trading Spreads and Seasonals and examine the ideas Ioe discusses, you may broaden your knowledge and scope of understanding of the business of trading. As you begin to recognize that "trading is a business," you may become a more mature, patient trader. As your trading takes on the added dimensions of maturity and patience, you may become more relaxed; and as you become more relaxed, you may view markets-and life-with greater clarity Trade 'em, Ierry Toepke, Editor Moore Research Center, Inc.
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Preface I suppose I should have written this manual a long time ago. I have known about seasonal trend and seasonal spread trading for many years. Amazingly, this knowledge is just as valid in today's markets as it has ever been, and can be quite profitable for the trader who is willing to pursue it. The concept of trading seasonal trends and seasonal spreads has been almost entirely overlooked by the hordes of daytraders who today riffle the markets with their almost frantic noise. It is also overlooked by the fimd traders. By fund traders I mean those massive pools of managed money residing in hedge funds, commodity pools, pension funds, bond funds, securities funds, etc. In fact, with the exception of the large commercial interests, the whole concept of seasonal trend and seasonal spreading has been overlooked by most traders. Seasonal concepts extend far beyond seasonality itself. They probe the very core of what trading is all about. The fact that there have been only two widely read books written about seasonal trend and seasonal spread trading has not accomplished much in the way of dispensing knowledge in the area of this type of timely trading. It's as though this knowledge is a closely guarded secret, not to be taught. Such may well be the case. Some of the best, most profitable, and highly reliable trades come as a result of trading seasonally. This book has been inspired in part by Techni-Seasonal Commodity Trading, a book by Everet Beckner. It is a book that has been in my private collection for many years, and one I have never hesitated to recommend. It is one of the two books mentioned above. Other works that may be helpful to the reader are listed in the Appendix C of this course.
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In Trading Spreads and Seasonals, it is my purpose to teach you everything I can about the wonderful trading vehicles created by seasonality. I hope to go beyond anything you may have encountered in the past. This course is organized according to degree of risk rather than order of complexity. The first part of this course deals with seasonal spreads, the second part with outright seasonal trades in futures. In my opinion, spreads carry considerably less risk than outright futures trades. For those who have read my other manuals and courses and are familiar with 1-2-3's, Ledges, Trading Ranges, and Ross Hooks, I have spared you from having to review (unless, of course, you want a review) these four basic trading fonnations for outright futures trades. For new readers, you will find them in Appendix A. Appendix B features seasonal Decision Tables courtesy of Moore's Research Center. Appendix C lists various resources that may be of interest. Chapter 25 is special in that it deals with carrying charge spreads. Chapter 26 is another special chapter dealing with the concept of spreading day trades in order to keep them overnight. Neither the material in Chapter 25 nor that of Chapter 26 fits the concept of seasonality. However, I felt this book would not be complete without the inclusion of this important part of my own trading. Before getting started, here is a special note to the ladies: I tried to write this book in a way that is gender neutral. Ladies, it just didn't work. So please forgive the fact that I used the masculine gender throughout. It is not my intent to offend you in any way.
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Chapter 1
What Is a "Spread?"
If you already know what a spread is, you may be tempted to skip this initial chapter. However, I advise against it. Besides being presented for those who know, it is presented here for those who are not sure, and also for those who know that they know that they don't know. I have been amazed at the number of traders who show up at my seminars who do not know what a spread is. Additionally, they do not know its numerous purposes or its many uses.
A Spread is... For purposes of this book, a spread is defined as the sale of one or more futures contracts and the purchase of one or more offsetting futures contracts. You can turn that around and state that a spread is the purchase of one or more futures contracts and the sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts. A spread is also created when a trader owns (is long) the physical vehicle and offsets by selling (going short) futures. However, this course will not cover the long physicals, short futures types of spreads. Furthennore, for purposes of this course, a spread is defined as the purchase and sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts nonnally recognized as a spread by the futures exchanges. 15
This ex~licitly excludes those exotic spreads that are put forth by some vendors but are nothing more than computer generated coincidences which will not be treated as s~reads by the exchanges. Such exotic spreads as long Bond futures and short Bean 011 fu~es may show up as reliable computer generated spreads, but they are not recogruzed as such by the exchanges, and are in the same category with believing the annual performance of the US stock market is somehow related to the outcome of a sporting event.
Eithe~ wa~, for tactical reasons in carrying out a particular strategy, you want to end WIth SImultaneous long futures and short futures positions or, if you prefer, SImultaneously short futures and long futures positions.
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The primary ways in which this can be accomplished are: 1. Via an intermarket spread. 2. Via an intramarket spread. 3. Via an inter-exchange spread.
Intermarket Spreads An interrnarket spread can be accomplished by going long futures in one market and short futures of the same month in another market. For example: Short May Wheat and Long May Soybeans. Intermarket spreads can become calendar spreads by using long and short futures in dIfferent markets and in different months. These spreads are specialized and uncommon, but it may be profitable for you know they are available.
Intramarket Spreads Officially, intramarket spreads are created only as calendar spreads. You are long and short futures ill the same market but in different months. An example of an intramarket spread is that you are long July Corn and simultaneously short December Corn. Other unofficial methods for creating intramarket spreads are beyond the scope ofthis course.
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Inter-Exchange Spreads A less commonly known method of creating spreads is via the use of contracts in similar markets but on different exchanges. These spreads can be calendar spreads using different months, or they can be spreads in which the same month is used. Although the markets are similar, because the contracts occur on different exchanges they are able to be spread. An example of an inter-exchange calendar spread would be simultaneously long July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat, and short an equal amount of May Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBOT) Wheat. An example where the same month is used might be long December CBOT Wheat and Short December KCBOT Wheat.
Offsetting Contracts Although both the long and the short futures may be entered simultaneously through a "spread broker," it is often advantageous to enter a spread one "leg" at a time. However, until both the long and short futures are in place, there is no offset and consequently no spread exists. Offsetting merely defines the difference between the futures contracts, i.e., simultaneously both long and short futures. A spread consists of two "legs." Each side of the trade constitutes one leg. Long futures is one leg and short futures is the other leg. There are times when offsetting may be accomplished by using inter-exchange spreads employing differing numbers of contracts. Let's say, for instance, you are short 5,000 ounces of July Comex (CMX) Silver and would like to offset with an equal amount of June Silver. You could create the necessary inter-exchange calendar spread by purchasing five Mid-America Exchange (Mid-Am) June, 1,000 ounce Silver contracts. Currency positions at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) can be similarly offset by contracts at the Mid-Am. I can offset a long CME DMark contract with two Mid-Am D-Mark contracts.
Sources of Spread Information All the major US exchanges publish materials on seasonal spreads. Generally this material can be had free or, at most, for a nominal charge.
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For example, the CBOT and the CME are happy to send you lovely color brochures showing charts of their exchange-recognized intermarket and intramarket spreads dating back over a period of 12 years. If you call and ask, they will send them at little or no charge. Don't forget to ask for both their commodity and financial futures material. Years ago, before the advent of computerized data bases, I used to obtain the CBOT's "Year Book." I am not aware if they still publish it, but it was chock full of tables giving actual prices for every contract for an entire year. It provided me with a complete data base of prices that at the time was incomparable. I used that data as a historical base for creating a history of which spreads worked best seasonally. It was laborious and tedious work, but I manually entered much of the data into myoid Epson QX-I0 computer so I could produce an historical graph. The public library where I lived carried the Year Book on its reference shelf and I made an arrangement with the head librarian to pick up last year's volume as soon as they received the latest, newest volume. Seasonal tendencies in futures change little, if any, over the years. I still trade the same seasonal spreads today as I did decades ago. There are more seasonal spreads today than there were then because there are more markets in which to trade, and because computers are able to spot very short term trends in spreads that would have been difficult and impractical, if not impossible, to detect by manual methods. Today, you can trade not only agricultural spreads, but also exchange-recognized spreads in the currency, fmancia1, energy, and metals futures. There is also an abundance of non-seasonal, intermarket and intramarket exchangerecognized spreads. Many of these non-seasonal spreads do have some seasonal tendencies and can be traded as seasonal spreads as well as outright spreads based on an event, fundamental knowledge, or some observable chart pattern. In addition to the material provided by the exchanges, there are also private sources of information on spreads. Some of these sources, with a brief description of each, are listed in the Appendix B of this course.
Markets Suitable for Spreads 18
When trading spreads, I am careful to trade in liquid markets and generally reject spreads in very thin markets. However, because there is essentially no such thing as "stop running" when trading spreads, I can afford to take them in markets that are a bit more illiquid than what I normally would consider appropriate for trading. I consider the following markets suitable for trading spreads: Currency: British Pound, D-Mark, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen. Any of these, one versus the other, on an intermarket basis. Energy: Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Un1eaded Gas, Natural Gas. Any of these on an intermarket or intramarket basis, along with the "Crack Spread." Grain: Corn, Chicago Wheat, Soybeans, Chicago Oats on an intermarket or intramarket basis. Chicago Wheat and Kansas City Wheat on an intermarket or intramarket basis. Soy Oil and Soy Meal on an intermarket or intramarket basis, and the Soybean "Crush" spread. Financial: US Treasury Bonds, Treasury Ten Year Notes, Treasury Five Year Notes, and Municipal Bonds on an intramarket basis and on an intermarket basis. (MOB spread, NOB spread, etc.) Two year notes on an intramarket basis. Eurodollars on an intramarket basis. T -Bills and Eurodollars on an intermarket basis. (TED Spread) Meat:
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Live Cattle and Live Hogs on an intramarket basis. Feeder Cattle on an intermarket basis with Live Cattle entered only as a spread. Metal: Gold, Silver, Copper on an intramarket basis, and Gold, Silver on an intermarket basis. Softs: Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice on an intramarket basis. (Caution: Coffee, Cotton, and Orange Juice in particular are among the world's most treacherous markets and I never trade outright futures positions in any of them. In this writer's opinion, trades in Cotton and Orange Juice should be avoided by non-commercial interests.) Of the above named markets, I will not take any trade that involves legging into a spread in any of the following markets: Orange Juice, Heating Oil, Unleaded Gas, Copper, Coffee, Cotton, Live Hogs, T-Bills, and Feeder Cattle. I wiII leg out of any of these only in dire emergencies, preferring to liquidate the trade intact, as a spread, both legs at the same time at a specified spread differential. "Legging in" refers to a situation in which both sides of the spread are not put on simultaneously. "Legging out" refers to exiting the spread one side at a time and not exiting both legs simultaneously. I wiII not take any trades that involve Lumber, Value Line, Canadian Dollar, or Pork Bellies. I tend to reject spreads in very thin markets or delivery months. As a rule, I will not take any trades that involve spreads that are not recognized by the exchange as being a spread. However, I may take a non-recognized spread if it occurs in related markets such as Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal.
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Chapter 2 Why Use Spreads?
There are certain advantages to using spreads. Stop for a moment and think about what they might be. I'II list them here and you wiII also see them discussed as appropriate throughout the course.
Advantages of Spreads Spreads can be insensitive to the trend or lack thereof in the outright futures. Of course, there are execeptions. In a bull market, the front months usually outperform the back months, and in a bear market, the back months usually outperform the front months. Generally, the absolute direction of the underlying futures is of little concern. The important thing is whether or not the trend of the spread differential moves favorably in the direction you would prefer. Exchange-recognized spreads carry lower initial and lower maintenance margin requirements. This is because spreads involve lower volatility. Most of the time true spreads do not move as frantically as do the underlying futures. A spread position is automatically a hedged position most of the time and therefore usually involves less risk. Some cases of "old crop" vs. "new crop" can refute this. They sometimes look like different animals. Spreads serve to reduce the volatility impact of the underlying futures. In an intramarket spread, if the front month of a contract suddenly comes crashing down, it is highly likely that all the remaining months will also crash down.
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The only thing the spread trader is interested in is whether or not a change in the spread differential has helped or hurt his position. Spreads allow a trader to take a fractional approach when putting on a futures position. Did you think you could do that only with options? Let's say you want to get long Treasury Bond (T -Bond) futures. After speaking with your broker, you realize that the margin for a single T-Bond trade is greater than you feel you can handle in your account. You notice that on most days, Treasury Note (T-Note) futures generally move some fraction of the amount of T-Bond futures. You also notice that the long T-Bonds, short T-Notes spread is widening. By going long T-Bond futures and short T-Note futures, you have created a fractional position in the interest rate futures. If T-Notes are moving 80% as much as T-Bonds, then your spread renders a move that is 20% of a long position in T-Bond futures. For example, if T-Bonds move up 10 points ($312.50), and at the same time T-Notes move up 8 points ($250), then the spread, T-Bonds/T -notes will have widened by 2 points ($62.50) i.e., 20% ($62.50/$312.50). Spreads have yet another advantage: they are convertible. It is possible to "leg out" of a spread, leaving yourself with an outright futures position. Conversion can work both ways, outright futures may be convertible to spread positions, and spreads are convertible to outright futures positions. Convertibility adds a great amount of flexibility to your futures trading. Don't tell them, but options traders think they're the only ones who can do this. Spread trading helps the trader to avoid a lot of the noise created during the intraday market trading. Much of the intraday noise is that of stop running by the locals on the floor. There are no stops in the traditional sense with spread trades. There is no stop running available when there is no stop order in the market. Why is there no stop running in spreads? Because the stop exists in the spread differential, and can be obtained by a combination of any number of futures prices. This leads to another feature of spread trading, confidentiality. When you are in a spread, and both long and short at the same time, you have no exit order in either market. If you are long Corn and short Beans, there is no exit order in place other than to exit at a certain difference between the contracts. Your trade is confidential. The locals have no idea of your true position or intent. They can't see both of your positions and have no reason to look. 22
Spreads, by their very nature, constitute a hedge. The economic rationale for the futures markets is to provide an arena in which risk may be hedged. A futures speculator can also hedge. His hedge is created by using an offsetting position. He creates the offset by putting on a spread. Have you ever wanted to hedge your position but didn't know how? Spreading can, at least temporarily, stop or lessen the pain of a bad trade. There is one further, somewhat obscure advantage of spreads. It is possible in some markets to use far distant back months for the offsetting position. In other instances, where you might be involved in a back month, you can use closer-in months for the offsetting position. In a later chapter, I will show you an example of how this advantage could have been utilized to save what would have otherwise resulted in a disastrous situation in the Coffee futures. Uses of Spreads
There are numerous reasons to use spreads. You might want to pause a moment to think about what they might be. Spreads are usually, but not always, used by speculators to reduce the risk of holding a position overnight or, indeed, to lower risk at any time at all. Spreads are used by traders to take advantage of historical seasonal tendencies. Spreads are used by traders to trade sideways markets where the futures spread is trending at the same time outright futures prices are seemingly moving sideways within Trading Ranges. Spreads are also used to convert an outright futures position to a combination futures position where the trader feels for any number of reasons that it is better to carry the offsetting positions available by spreading. Spreads are also used as outright intermarket and intramarket speculations. Spreads are used when there is a desire to remove the effects of futures directionality or trending from a trade. Spreads can be employed to reduce the amount of initial margin and maintenance margin required to trade a particular contract. Finally, spreads can be used to reduce and greatly eliminate the effects of volatility and the resulting uncertainty from a trade. Let's briefly look at each of the above situations in order to gain an overview and somewhat deeper insight into the reasoning behind each. In later chapters, when I show how I trade the various spreads, I will probe the depths of the reasons for taking spread trades. In conjunction with the reasons, I
will also show you my strategies and the tactics by which I carry them out. Keep in mind, it is entirely possible to lose on both sides of a spread. Reducing the Risk of Holding a Position It is not,~co~on in ~iqui~ or illiquid markets f~r a floor trader to hedge his positlOn by spre~dIDg off agamst the same market ID another month, or against a rela~ed market ID the same month. I have seen this kind of floor trading tactic in such IlltqUId markets as the Value Line, and even in more liquid markets such as Soybeans, Eurodollars, and Bonds. In fact, arbitraging through spreads in distant back months by financial traders is commonly done while greatly reducing risk. If floor traders think it's important to "spread off;' don't you think it's important for you to do the same thing? Value Line floor traders, in an effort to make a market, will take the opposite side of an entry order c.oming in from off the floor. Then, because volume and liquidity are so tembly low ID thIS m.arket, the Value Line floor trader will offset his position by takIDg an OppOSIte posltlOn ID the S&P 500. By doing so, he has hedged his risk. It IS not uncommon for a floor trader in the Soybean pit to offset and hedge his risk by taking an OppOSIte eqUIty posItIon III Soybean Oil or Soybean Meal. Financial floor traders will hedge risk by spreading intermarket contracts and intramarket back month contracts. Often these are not perfect spreads and often they are not spreads recognized by the exchange as such. Nevertheless, they are regularly used by floor traders and are illustrative of the use of spreading off as a means to reduce risk and thereby create a hedge. Off-0e-floor traders can also hedge risk by use of offsetting positions to be held ove~~t. Both daytraders and position traders can create spreads that considerably
nulliIlllze the nsk of a position that might be held overnight. Day trades can be converted to position trades by spreading. Position trades can be held considerably longer at less risk by spreading.
Taking Advantage of Historical Seasonal Tendencies
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Probably the most common use of outright spread trading is for the purpose of taking advantage of the seasonal tendencies that occur in various futures markets. Trades with a high probability of being profitable can be entered this way. Trades with success probabilities in the 80th and 90th percentiles are quite common among seasonal spread trades. Seasonal spreads are not exclusive to consumable commodity futures. They occur in the currency and financial futures markets as well. The proof of the reliability of seasonal trading is extensive. In fact, not that many years ago it was the mainstay of many a successful trader. Knowing when the markets are following their normal seasonal behavior and taking advantage of the fact is one of the safest and surest ways to trade the futures markets. One has to be patient and restrained from greed when trading seasonals. The reward is well worth the effort. Trading in Sideways Futures Markets It is not unusual for a particular futures market to be moving sideways. Experts have stated that markets spend approximately 85% of their time with their prices moving sideways and not trending. Whereas overall markets may be moving sideways, there is often a trend occurring between different months of the same underlying futures or the same or various months of related futures. Markets that tend to incur long periods of congestion may very well be trending when a front month is offset against a back month. One month may be moving sideways with an upward bias while another month is moving sideways with a downward bias. The difference gives rise to a spread trend and an opportunity to profit from the spread differential.
Converting an Outright Futures Position to a Spread Quite often an outright futures position can be converted to a spread position. The result can be less risk and will require less margin. I have entered such conversions in my trading and have witnessed what would have been a loss, had I held outright futures, turn into a profit by way of conversion to a spread. Trades of this sort will be illustrated later in this course. Ending up in a spread has usually been the result of a need or willingness to hedge. The resulting profit has often been greater from the spread than it would have been had an outright futures position been maintained. Have you used this privilege ID your trading? Outright Inter-Exchange, Intermarket, and Intramarket Speculations A spread trade is often entered without the benefit of seasonality as an outright spread position. This may be done as a counter-seasonal trade due to
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backwardation in a market. Any news event, rumor, fundamental fact, or technical formation can cause a trader to enter a spread based on the merits of his ascertaining that a spread trade would be in his best interests. Outright spread trades may be entered when it is unknown which way a market will break from congestion. Once the break has occurred, the losing side of the spread is dropped and the winning side is maintained. Entire strategies and the resulting tactics needed to carry them out can be built around outright spread trades. Any time a spread is trending, sufficient reason exists to consider entry via the spread method of trading futures. Should it become advantageous, any spread position can at any time be converted to an outright futures trade by simply dropping the losing side of the spread. Removing the Effects of Directionality Spread trades are not fully dependent upon the trend or lack thereof of the individual futures of which they are comprised. Rather, they are dependent upon the trend of the spread differential itself. This is why, even when markets are not trending, a spread trade can make money from the trend in the spread differential. However, spreads can also make profits in trending markets. If the long side of a spread trade trends higher and faster than the short side of that same trade, profits will be acquired by virtue of the upward trend in the spread differential. In like manner, if the short side of a spread trends lower and faster than the long side of that same trade, profits will be acquired by virtue of the upward trend in the spread differential. This may seem confusing, but it points out the fact that the trend of a spread can be up even while the two legs of the spread contract are plunging down.
Both Sides of a Spread Can Win or Lose While on the subject of directionality, keep in mind that directionality of profit or loss is another matter. It is entirely possible to be profitable on both sides of a spread as well as to be unprofitable and actually lose on both sides of a spread. Reducing the Amount of Initial and Maintenance Margin Exchanges recognize the reduced risk of spread trades and the corresponding reduction in the effects of volatility by making the margin requirements necessary to carry
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spread trades much lower than those for outright futures trades. Spreads are generally fractionally less volatile than outright futures positions. Every spread trade carries in it the elements of hedging, and the elements of risk. Hedgers require less margin to trade because they are both long and short the same or a related commodity. That is one reason why, with a few exceptions involving related markets, we do not advocate exotic, exchange-non-recognized spreads for purposes of this course. Lowered margin requirements are a major positive reason for entering spread trades. Lower margins can mean more opportunities to enter or add to positions in the same market or to diversify through additional positions in other markets. If you are trading a small account, are you aware that spread trading may offer a way to obtain more trading opportunities? Reduce and Greatly Eliminate the Effects of Volatility and Uncertainty As stated above, it is the hedging nature of spreads that can reduce risk and margin. This reduction is directly related to the lessened exposure to volatility that may be carried by spread trades. If you are both long and short the Japanese Yen and it explodes into a 500 point price rise in a single day, you may profit if the long side of the trade moves up more than the short side. If the opposite is true, you will lose only fractionally the amount you would have lost if you were holding an outright short futures position. The long futures will always mitigate the effects of any loss you might be taking on the short side of the spread trade. Disadvantages of Spreads Since I've been listing the advantages of spreads, it is only fair that I list the disadvantages of spreads. Nothing in life is perfect. Spread trading is not totally without some drawbacks. You wouldn't want me to pretend there are none, would you? Probably the greatest disadvantage in the minds of some traders is that trading spreads limits profit potential. Of course, this is true. When you limit the risk in a trade, you usually end up limiting the amount of profit available in that trade. Limited profit potential must be weighed against the benefits and advantages that accrue to a trader who utilizes spreads. Another disadvantage in spread trading is the limited amount of written information about spreads. There are few books indeed that cover the subject. One of the
27
reasons for my preparing this course is to provide an in-depth treatment of the subject of spread trading. Ordering of spread trades is another draw-back for many traders. It takes a greater effort to place a spread order than other types of orders. Although the ordering of a spread trade involves no more than a few additional words, this seems to be an insunnountable obstacle for those not willing to make the effort. I believe this degree of reluctance derives from the fact that traders are not sure of themselves when it comes to placing spread trades. This lack of certainty revolves around not understanding the mechanics of ordering, and also a lack of understanding of how spread trades work Ignorance in this area is not solely in the realm of the trader. It also involves the broker. This leads to another disadvantage of spread trading, broker uncertainty. I've been amazed at how few brokers know anything about how to place a spread order. Therefore they are sometimes of little help to the trader seeking such information. That's too bad, isn't it? Perhaps the final disadvantage of spread trading is found at the spread desk itself. For spreads that involve the existence of an actual spread desk, i.e., spreads like the TED spread which involves a spread across two markets, and therefore trades at an official TED spread desk of the International Money Market, there is a loss of the confidentiality that is available were the trader to avoid the spread desk and simply leg into the spread trade. I feel that it is often better to leg into spreads, especially where the trader has the time and resources to observe the market and enter at a more propitious differential. The back office computer is oblivious to legging in. It cannot tell whether the spread was entered as a spread or was entered by legging-in.
28
Chapter 3
How to Trade Spreads to Reduce Risk
As previously stated, off-the-floor traders can hedge and reduce risk by offsetting positions to be held overnight. Both daytraders and position traders can create spreads that considerably minimize the risk of a position that might be held overnight. Daytrades can be converted to position trades by spreading (see Appendix C for an example). Position trades can be held considerably longer at less risk by spreading. Let's take some real examples so I can show you what I mean.
fr tl1
Profitable here, hedged before close)ll Report due out after market close
Lon~ on breakout rtJt[11r(
tf~ti[hlItl
l
20.050
ItHI f tt
'ir
11
~j
}tlf\ l)fhlJlrlf
20.500
I,r'\nl
19.600
11' tf f 1\
19.150
It
- t ri' ~
18.700
I1
I (ffit ll_
18.250
17.800
17.350
t 01
15
02
16
30
13
27
29·
11
25
08
22
16.900
20.500
h~,.
d,,,, It
""'fitabl, h, .!g,d b,''" Report due out after market close
Long on breakout
}Ilf\
t)
~I
[t
flllll[1\(1
20.050
11111 f
it
r~ I
tfll f I) I\[f It
19.600
rf
[tf}~ jt
-t
fll !*llf ~f'\1It1iI
19.150
ft
r
18.700
I
I
I1
18.250 17.800
Illflll
17.350
t
16.900 Dec.
01
15
02
16
30
13
27
11
25
08
22
Some time ago, I was long Crude Oil futures based upon a position trade entry. After a few days, I was showing a nice profit. However, the report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) was due out. If the report were negative, I stood the chance of losing any profits I had made and possibly of incurring a loss. At times, the Crude Oil market reacts violently to the API report, and in my earlier years I often took a beating when such things happened. As an item of interest, another event that often rocks the Crude Oil market are the rumors (news?) that occur just before, during, and immediately after OPEC meetings. At this point, I need to back up somewhat and show you something I do on position trades in anticipation of the fact that I may at some time have to use a spread to reduce my risk. Prior to entering the Crude Oil trade, I looked at the spread among the most liquid Crude Oil contracts to see which, if any, were trending in a way favorable to me should I find that I need to offset my long Crude Oil futures with a short Crude Oil futures. Why do I do this?
30
I want to make sure before entering my outright long Crude Oil futures position that I have a possible way to hedge should the trade require such tactics. I knew before entry that the API report was due out soon. So prior to any entry, I ascertained that the spread was neutral or favorable to me should I need it to hedge and thereby reduce any risk I might have in the trade. So far as I knew, I might have to hedge the trade on the very first day, or on any subsequent day. This is how the spread looked at the time I was
".dy" ,.W my ,_. C~de Oil ''''''''', , ....]
.2611
I
.2411~
. 221'1a1 .21'11'1e l
.1Bl'l el
fV
.16118 .141'11'11 .121'18 .U1111lj .I'IBl'lel
.1'161'181 .1'I41'1el .u2111'11 .1'11'181'11 -1'I.020I'1i -8.1'1481'11 -1'1.061'11'11 -ILUB81'11 -0·11'11'11'11 -11.12001 -0.141'11'11 -0. 1600i -0.!BOOI
-0.20001 , , r . , , , , , , , " , , . , , , , . , , , . , , , , , 1 , r , 1 I 11 , 1I, I , , 1 111 1 I 1 I 1 1111 rill 1 I 1I111IIIIIIII1
How to Chart a Spread As you can see, at the time I needed to know about the spread, it was fairly neutral between the two contract months I decided to use. When you chart a spread you subtract the closing prices for the month you want to be short from the closing prices of the month you want to be long. The result should display a graph that is moving up, indicating the spread is working in your favor, or a graph that is neutral, indicating that, at least for the moment, the spread is not working strongly against you. Next, let's look at both the outright futures position and a continuation of the spread chart so you can see what happened at the time I needed to actually enter the spread in order to hedge my position. 31
20.500 20.050 19.600 19.150 18.700 18.250 17.800 17.350 16.900 Dec,
01
02
15
16
30
27
13
11
25
08
22
This is how the spread looked the day I put it on This is how the spread
.421'1 ."101'10 .381'11'1 .3601'1 .3"11'10 .3201'1 .31'101'1 .2801'1 .261'11'1 .2"11'11'1 .221'1 .21'11'10 .181'11'1 .1601'1
. HOB .1201'1 .HlBO .1'1801'1 .061'10 .1'1"11'11'1 .1'121'1 .1'101'11'1 -fU121'10 -1'1.1'1"11'11'1 , "
"
I , "
I ,
I "
, "
I , I I I , I 1 I I , "
1 , I
I
1 11 I 1 11 11 1 11 1111111 1111 11I11111111
32
On the chart at the top of the preceding page, Crude Oil futures prices reacted negatively to the API (American Petroleum Institute) report. Prices went down for a period of three days following the report. During that time, the spread went against me for a few days. You can see it on the chart below. Did you notice how the graph line of the spread went down soon after I put it on? However, had I not hedged my risk by using the spread, I would have ended up giving back virtually all the profits I had previously made in the trade, and could very possibly have been stopped out with little or no gain.
1
This is howthe spread looked the day I put it on This is how the spread looked the day I entered
against me
, , • I I I , , ,
1,
I • , , "
I "
I "
I 1 I 1 , I I I , 1
.121'11'11 .11'11'11'11 .381'11'1 .361'11'11 .311'11'1 .321'11'1 .31'11'11'11 .2800 .261'11'1 .2"11'11'11 .221'11'11 .21'11'11'1 .1801'1 .161'11'11 .111'11'1 .121'10, .101'11'11 0800 .1'1601'1 ..1'1"11'11'11 .1'121'11'1 .001'11'11 -1'1.1'121'11'1 -1'1.1'111'10
I 11 1 1 11111111 11I1111111111111111111
In terms of numbers, I entered the spread when the difference between the long and short futures was 12 points ($120). The worst the spread ever moved against me was to a differential of 6 points ($60). My greatest risk for the entire time I held the spread was only $60. Had I remained long futures, it would have required me to maintain a protective stop of 124 points ($1,240) to prevent my being stopped out of the trade entirely. The futures numbers are as follows: I entered my long futures at a price of 1880. The market moved as high as 1996. At that point I had 116 points, ($1,160) of unrealized paper profits. After the API report came out, prices moved down to 1873.
33
I would have needed a stop at 1872 in order to stay in the trade. Instead of risking $1,240, the spread allowed me to risk only $60. Once prices moved my way again, I could have dropped the short side of my spread and stayed long futures for a maximum gain of an additional 57 points ($570). Had I not dropped the short side of the spread, my additional maximum possible gain would have been 26 points ($260). Of course, one rarely gets the maximum possible gain. The spread at its widest shown below was 38 points. Since I entered it when it was at 12 points, the most I could have gained was another 26 points.
Maximum possible gain for the spread~
.4200 .4000 .3800 .3600 . 3409 3200 .3909 . 1 .2800 2609 . 1 .2409 2200 ..2000 1 .18001 1600 . 1 .1409 1200 1 . .1090 1
This is how the spread looked the day I put it on This is how the spread looked the day I entered
.08001 .0600 .IH90 .0200 .0009 -0.9200 -0.0400
By hedging my long futures via the technique of "spreading off," I sharply reduced my risk. Admittedly, by staying in the spread I also reduced my potential profits to a degree dependent upon how long I stayed hedged. However, from the point in time that I entered the spread by shorting a back month of Crude Oil futures, my margin requirements had been greatly reduced. Directionality of my long futures was no longer a factor in the trade.
34
My main concern was the direction of the trend in the differential. The hedge itself was an intramarket calendar spread. Since markets were created for hedgers to be able to reduce risk, as a speculative trader I was also hedging risk, thereby fulfilling the economic purpose for which futures markets exist.
Risk Reduction Considerations This particular trade worked out quite well. The only thing that could have been more reassuring at entry would have been to have seen a rising trend in the spread itself.
This is haw the spread looked at the time I was ready to enter my long Crude Oil futures position .
A rising trend would have given me more confidence at entry time
.2600 .2400 .2200 .2000 .1800 .1680 .1480 .1200 .1080 .0880 .0688 .0400 .0280 .9131313 -8.02130 -0.0400 -8.0600 -0.0880 -8.11309 -0.1280 -0.1400 -0.1600 -0.1800 -0.2000
, , 1 . , , , , , . , , , , , . , " .• , , , • " , " I I 1 , I I I I I I I, I , , I I11 I I I I I I 11 11 I11 I I 1I111111111111
Many days may pass and the trend of the spread can change between the time I enter an outright futures position and the time I decide I need to spread off in order to hedge my position and reduce risk. However, at the time of entry I have no idea of when I will need to use the hedge. There have been many times when the hedge needed to be put on the very same day as the day of entry into my outright futures. So whenever possible, I look for the spread trend to be up. 35·
If chart shows the spread trend is moving sideways and is only neutral, I will think a lot harder about whether or not I can use this technique. In turn, this will affect whether or not I choose to enter the trade at all. If at the time of entry the spread trend is opposite of what I need it to be and trending down, I may reverse the way I enter the trade and go long the month I would normally have sold short and go short the month I would normally have bought long. Let's look at that situation now. Here is a trade in Corn:
CORN !
28.500 28.000 27.500 27.000 26.500 26.000 25.500 25.000 24.500
22
09
D
23
J
06
21
07
21
F
04
18
02
16
A
My intention was to go long December futures. During the month of March prices took out the high indicated by the arrow. As a precaution, I looked to see how I might protect myself and lower my risk should the trade go against me. The normal thing to do would be to buy December futures and look to short another month for a positive trend in the spread. I looked at the spread differential between the May and December contracts, and I looked at the spread differential between the July and December contracts. When I charted the possibility of creating a hedge trade, the spread appeared as you see it on the chart on the following page. 36
I
Do you see the pronounced downward bias to this spread? CZlCK -2044.BB -2051.00 -2058.BB -2()65.BO -2072.BB -2079.0B -20136.BO -2093.BB -2Hl£l .£IB
The spread looked like this
\ I
" " " , " , ' , ' , ' " 1"1,,,1, "1,,11,,, "" Dec
Jan
-2107.130 -2114.BO -2121.BO -2128.00 -2135.1'l1'l -2142. BB -2149.01'l -2156.01'l -2163. BB -·21713 .I'll'l -2177 .1'l0 -2184.1'l1'l -2191.130 -2198.130 -2205.00
",I""II'I"IIIIIII! [IIII! feb
Mar
CZICK was hardly conducive to my wanting to enter a long position in December Corn. It had been falling for quite some time, and the spread differential had just broken to new lows. I then looked at CZ/CN to see if it would be any better.
Based on a comparison between CZ/CN and CZ/CK, which spread would you have chosen to enter? CVCN
The spread was more negative
\ 11111111111111"
Dec
-2986.99 -2993.99 -2193.33 -2137.30 -2114.66 -2121.60 -2128.66 -2135.90 -2142.00 -2119.03 -2156.30 -2163.00 -2170.30 -2177.00 -2181.00 -2191.99 -2198.00 -2235.99 -2212.00 -2219.33 -2226.33 -2233.33 -2213.30 -2217.33
"IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Jan
Feb
Mar
The spread CZ/CN appeared more negative than CZ/CN. On the basis of the spread chart, I decided to enter long July and short December Corn. Although I never would have had to hedge my long July position, if I had, the spread kept going in favor of long July Corn until just a few days before first notice day.
38
When trading futures I like to have every possible element of the trade favoring my chances for success. Even ",ith the precautions I take, things don't always work out the way I plan. Sometimes the trade goes against the best of my plans. Recently one of my students, I'll call him Jay, found himself in trouble on a trade. Let's look at that trade now.
WZ
41.750 41. 000
I
1111
1111 f I I
d\ r
rr
Ilfll[ jll!
[" d
I
f 11
fit
II
39.500 38.750
IrI [il
38.000 37.250
I
II1
40.250
36.500 35.750
05
12
19
Apr
26
0::
10
17
24
31
07
14
Jun
May
Jay was long December Wh~at, and in late June the market looked as you see it on the above chart. Prices had begun to be more volatile with the daily range on average becoming greater. The market appeared to be choppy, and he feared that it was beginning to top out. Jay wanted to protect his position by hedging it via a spread in which he would offset his long December Wheat by going short July Wheat. At the time he originally entered the trade, the spread December over July was steadily working in his favor and looked as you see it on the next page.
39 .
W'ZJWN
I
lJ' I
11,1" I I11 d,1111111111111111111111,11,11111111111" 11111111111111111111111111111111111111 Mar
Apr
May
24.000 23.50 23.01313 22.51313 22.01313 21.51313 21.131313 213.51313 2B.BOO 19.5BB 19.Baa 18.5aa 18.0aa 17.5aal 17. aaol 16.50a 16.aaa 5ao 15. lS.0a0l 14.S0a 14.aaal 13.5aa 13.aOO 12.saol
Jun
That night, about 10 minutes before the close, Jay offset his long December Wheat by sharting the July contract. In his estimation, he stood to make money by dropping the hedge should Wheat continue to move up. He felt that if it stayed in a choppy trading range, or topped out, he would continue to profit from the spread, which had been working in favor of December over July for quite some time. Unfortunately for Jay, the markets suddenly changed and the spread began to move rather strongly against him. Within a few days, Jay found himself looking at a spread chart such as the one you see on the following page.
40
WZlWN
2s.0ao oao 24. 23.oao 22.000 21. oa 01 2fulOal 19.000 l'
IB.OOOI
17.0001 16.000 15.0001 14.0aa! 13.0001 12.000 11.0001' 10.000 9.00001 8.00001 7.00001 6.0000i 5.00001 4.00001 3.00001 1111'111111,,1111,1,111111111,11111111111111111 1111111111111111111111111111111111111I i 1111 Apr
Jun
Mall
Jul
L - -_ _ _ _ _
2.0000
,
1
Jay now had an important decision to make. Since the spread was working against him, he could choose to exit the trade by liquidating both ills long and short Wheat positions. He could choose to go back to his original position by dropping the short July Wheat position and staying long the December contract. His final choice could have been to stay hedged by continuing to hold the spread. Before I tell you what Jay did, let me ask you what you would have done?
41
In this case, Jay chose to exit the position entirely because he was no longer comfortable with it. That choice turned out to be a "middle of the road" decision. Had Jay stayed with the spread, here is what would have happened to him. W'ZJWN
111111111111111111 Apr
It 1I \ 11111111 illlllllllllllll
2S.flflfl 24.flflfl 23.flflfl 22.flflfl 21.flflfl 2fl.flflfl 19.flflfl IB.flflfl 17.flflfl 16.flflfl lS.flflfl 14.flflfl 13.flflfl 12.flflfl ll.flflfl Ifl.flflfl 9.flflflfl B.flflflfl 7.flflflfl 6.flflflfl S.flflflfl '1.flflflfl 3.flflflfl 2.flflflfl
111111II1111111 \ I11 \ 11111 \ \ \ \ \ 1\11111111111
Ma4
Jun
Ju 1
If Jay had chosen to stay long December Wheat, he would have made more money as Wheat prices moved 42 points higher before forming a Trading Range. Had Jay been able to get out at the very top, he would have made $2,100 more per contract than he did. However, Jay was correct in detecting that the move in Wheat prices was almost over. Would the additional gain have been worth being uncomfortable with the trade? Only Jay could have made that decision. We each have our own level of comfort. Jay traded within his comfort level. He had made profits and he took his profits. Any time a trader chooses to take profits, I will applaud that decision.
42
WZ 46.250
f f
I' I tf
fl
111'\1 tlfltlll r r fit f t t [ l rl [ t
~
~~d it
45.000
J
~
1f
t
43.750 42.500 41.250
t
40.000 38.750
~I
37.500 36.250
01
08
15 May
22
29
05
12
19
Jun
26
03
10 Jul
Summarizing Risk I want to make sure you realize that spreads can be, and are used, to reduce risk. I also want to be sure you understand that it is possible to lose on both sides of a spr~ad trade, once it is ent~red. It is entirely possible for the long side of a spread to begm to worsen your pOSItion relative to the short side of that spread. When that happens, under certain circumstances, you could find yourself losing more, by way of a spread trade, than you would have in an outright futures position.
43
44
Chapter 4
Seasonal Spread Trade Selection
Seasonal spreads are among the best trades possible for those who are willing to wait for these excellent opportunities to come along. They have the advantage of a very high degree of reliability over a period of many years. Trades that work 80% or more of the time are certainly worth taking. Many of these trades work 100% of the time for periods spanning 15 years or more. Yet seasonal spreads must be filtered in order to obtain the very best results. A lot of money can be lost by blindly taking these trades based upon computer generated dates for entry and exit. Seasonal spreads can be heavy losers in those years when they fail to work as predicted by computer generated studies. Even in those years where a seasonal spread does what it is expected to do, it can also work strongly against a trader, resulting in substantial losses if it is entered or exited at the wTOng time, or under the wrong conditions. In the first chapter, I showed you ways to discover seasonal spreads. In this chapter I will show you how I filter them in order to get the best results. My filter is simple, as you will soon see. My entry technique usually gains me a better entry than one based solely on a computer generated date. I will also show you how I exit seasonal trades. My exit technique generally results in greater profits than those obtained by exiting the trade based solely upon a computer generated date. In all fairness to those private services which provide computer generated entry and exit dates, let me say that those dates are given by them as approximations with adequate warnings as to the fact that they do need to be filtered.
The Filtering Process My filtering process is simple, and threefold: I check to see if there is any fundamental reason for the spread to behave abnonnaIly. In the case of a consumable item, I want to know if there is a current supply shortage of one of the underlying commodities. In the case of all contract items, I want to know if there is any news or market situation that might affect the trade I'm about to enter. I enter a proven seasonal spread during a time window covering ten trading days prior through ten trading days subsequent to, the usual entry date for the trade, a total time window of twenty trading days. I enter the trade based upon a signal from a simple chart pattern. If such a signal does not appear, I refrain from entering the trade regardless of the probability of success. If I miss a good trade because of a failure of the chart pattern to appear, I simply consider that this seasonal trade did not have my name on it. However, in order for you to appreciate my filtering process, I want you to understand what is involved with selecting a seasonal spread. The conclusion of the matter is that the simplest, easiest way is to employ computer generated seasonal spreads that have been proven to work over a period of many years. After all, my job is to spend my time making money trading seasonal spreads, not researching them as I had to do in the past. Considerations in Manual Selection of Seasonal Trades To identifY a seasonal spread, it is necessary to ascertain the relative action of the underlying futures contracts. This is no easy task. To accomplish this, I must have charts or data of how the underlying contracts have behaved in the past. The exchange brochures are excellent for viewing past price behavior over a period of many years. Yet it is extremely difficult in some years to visually see the spread between two bar charts, unless prices are charted as a spread.
46
It is also possible to purchase computer databases containing daily prices going back for many, many years, in some cases as far back as the beginning of trading of a particular contract. Such data can then be massaged to show the outcome of spreading one futures contract against another.
Here is an example of what is involved in identifying seasonal spreads. A spread I've been familiar with for many years is to get long CBOT Corn and short CBOT Wheat around the first of May. The reason for entry into this particular spread is that Wheat prices generally tend to be pushed down by the commercial interests, in May, just ahead of the harvest, while at the same time of year the quality and quantity of the future Corn harvest is unknown. This spread works more than 90% of the time over a period of years. The Corn/Wheat spread works even in years when Wheat prices are rising, as long as Corn prices are rising more strongly. Weekly ComlWheat
-'IS.aaB -SILaaB -ss.aBa -6ILaIlB -6S.aIlB -7a.aIlB -7S.aIlB -Ba.aIlB -BS.aIlB -9B.aIlB -9S.aIlB This is how it looked -18a.Ba the following year. -laS.IlB -11Il.Ba Remember, this is a -11S .00 weekly spread chart. -12B.IlB That seemingly small -12S.8B -138.00 move was a move of -13S .00 15.75 points. At $50 -Ha .00 a point, that move was -HS.Ba worth $787.50. -lsa.OO -lSS.OO -1613.00
\Thl," ......,,,"0' looked like one year.
11I1111111111111111111111111111111I11111111111111111111I111111111111
F M A
M
J
J
A
S
0
M
47·
D
J
F
M
A
M
~ooking over a multiple year period, I can see that Wheat prices generally dropped m.the ~onth of May, e1ght out of twelve years. On the sole basis of falling Wheat pnces ill the month of May, the spread would succeed only 66.7% of the times as long a~ ":"heat pnces fall faste~ ~an Corn prices. So just looking at falling Wheat pnces 1S msuffic1ent for determmmg the probability that the spread might work.
Id=close down from monthly open
Monthly Wheat
Iu'cl". up from m , _ 'p,n W
/,~~
~I
r
45.000 42.500 40.000 37.500 35.000
j
~
I
I
if \~
32.500 30.000
\~
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
48
31
27.500 25.000
31
31
31
31
Looking at Corn prices over the same twelve year period, I can see that Corn prices generally rose in seven out of twelve years. From this we can see that in some years Corn and Wheat prices have a tendency to diverge during the month of May. d=close down from monthly open u=close up from monthly open Monthly Corn 35.250 32.750 30.250 27.750 25.250 22.750 20.250 17.750 15.250
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
From that analysis, we can begin to see why this spread has a tendency to work as Long Corn, Short Wheat. However, were I to select this spread based only upon the years that Corn prices rose and Wheat prices fell, I would have had only a few opportunities to make the trade. The fact is, only four times in twelve years did Corn prices rise while Wheat prices fell. Analyzing the charts, can you see that there were three years where both Corn and Wheat prices rose, four years where both Corn and Wheat prices fell, and five out of twelve years where the trend in Corn and Wheat prices differed? Ofthose five, Corn prices rose four times while Wheat prices fell and Wheat prices rose once when Corn prices fell. Ob\iously, the safest trades came in the four years when Corn prices rose while Wheat prices fell.
49
However, that does not account for the high percentage (over 90%) of years when this spread worked. The only conclusion is that in years when both Corn and Wheat prices fell, Wheat prices fell more dramatically than Corn prices. In the years where both Corn and Wheat prices rose, Corn prices rose more dramatically than Wheat prices. As a matter of fact, the only year when the spread didn't work was the one year when Wheat prices rose and Corn prices fell during the month of May. The result is that if this spread trade were entered and exited correctly during the twelve years shown on the chart, the trade was successful 91.67% of the time. The fact of the matter is that the two, Corn and Wheat, must be looked at together and the amount of rise and fall in prices must be looked at relationally. This is extremely tedious and difficult to do without the aid of a computer. In the ComlWheat spread I will show, Wheat was in short supply from the previous year's harvest, and therefore the spread would not work. Could you see that this was going to be the case simply by looking at the spread trend prior to the time it is normally entered?
50
The chart is right below you, take a look. CNIWN
I
,,' ",11,1" I"", I, 1"1",,,,1, ,,11111111111, 11111111111111111
Feb
Mar
d111I111 [1111 J! IIII1 [11 [Ill
Apr
-7S.eeIJ -76.50a -78.1'109 -79.501'1 -61.0011 -62.S0IJ -64.0011 -6S.S011 -67.00a -66.50a -90.eOB -91.50B -93.00B -94.501:) -%.00a -97.50B -99.e0B -tEI0.SI:) -102.00 -103.50 -105.01'1 -106.59 -108.01:) -109.59
May
I !
When I consider the CNIWN spread, I look at a window in time beginning ten trading days before the first Monday in May, and up to ten trading days after the first Monday in May. Ten trading days prior to the first Monday, the spread was movmg sharply upward. However, I did not see an entry signal during that time Cl will be showing you my pattern entry signals a bit later in this course). By the time prices were five trading days prior to the first Monday, prices began moving dO\\l1. From that time until ten trading days after the first Monday, the trend of the spread was counter-seasonal and no entry signal was given. Looking at the two charts on the following page will show why the spread was not following its normal seasonal tendency. 51.
H DAILY
2:66.88 264.00 262.08 2:68,68 258.80 256.80
254.80 252.08 258.80
248.80 246.80 244.80
...." I,
•
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
Rpr
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I1
I
I
I
I
I
I 1 I 1 1
Ha'14
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
H I>AILY 374.00
370,00 366.210 362.80 358.e0 354.08 350.00 346.88 342.210 338.00 334.88 I, Maro
,1,
I,
I I
, I ,
1 , ,
Rpr
I,
I
1 11 1 I 1
I
I,
330.80
1 1 1 I 11 11 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 I "ay
During the twenty-day (bracketed) window in time when I considered entering this trade, Corn moved up 3.5 points. However, during that same period, Wheat moved up 8.25 points. The non-seasonal differential caused CN/WN to trend the wrong way.
52
Chapter 5
Filtering Process: Checking the Fundamentals
The first step of my filtering process is to check everything I can about the fundamentals of the underlying fuMes contracts relative to the time of year I propose making my entry. For me, this means looking at the most basic of fundamentals. I've often said that as an individual trader I cannot hope to compete with the large commercial interests in gathering fundamentals. That statement remains true today. Why? Because the large commercials can afford to have agents worldwide who can go out in the fields and examine crops, research intended plantings and actual plantings, pore over government and private reports of crop conditions, weather, soil conditions, insect infestations, etc. However, there is certain fundamental information available to the individual trader and, in fact, with the news reports available via a live data feed, there is more information than I can possibly handle or want to know. Checking Fundamentals: Weather It doesn't take a great deal of effort to turn on the news and find out the weather,
not only in one's own country, but all over the world. If there is flooding or drought in the Midwest that will affect the grains, it doesn't take much effort to find out about it.
53-
If there is a freeze in Brazil that could affect coffee or soybeans, it doesn't take a lot of research to be informed about that either. I can quite easily find out if the Silver miners in Mexico are tlu-eatening a strike. If there is trouble in South Africa that might affect the mining of gold, it will be part of the news. If OPEC is planning a meeting, energy prices are likely to be affected, and it's not difficult to fmd out. The news will carry tales of unrest in the Ivory Coast that might affect the supply of cocoa beans, etc. The point I am making is as old as the hills, "LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP." This point is in keeping with myoid adage, "Trade what you see, not what you think." Any oddity in the weather is going to cause me to take a hard look at a proposed spread trade in a commodity that is eaten by someone or something. I am going to see if the underlying markets appear at all normal individually and relative to each other. I'm going to take a hard look at the inter-exchange, intermarket, and intramarket spreads as is appropriate. I may even consider entering the spread inversely. I'm also going to look for the next item.
Checking Fundamentals: Backwardation One of the easiest things to spot is the reversal of the natural order of prices. This reversal is known as "backwardation" and can be seen in any newspaper that features a section carrying futures prices. For all futures contracts except interest rate contracts, the normal carrying charges (insurance, storage, interest) usually cause prices in the later (back) months to be higher than prices in the nearer (front) months. However, when some change in the fundamentals occurs to cause excessive demand in the front months, the prices in the front months may rise higher than those of some of the back months, causing backwardation. Backwardation can be caused when someone is willing to pay a premium today to get something that they fear may be much more costly later on. With regard to backwardation, the experts at Moore Research state: "In certain markets (live cattle, crude oil, heating oil, e.g.) this phenomenon provides the very foundation for some seasonal trading and spread strategies wherein deferred contracts tend to rise toward cash as front months expire. (We found this to be the case when analyzing contracts included in the CME's GSCI. Note how rarely cattle producers are able to place forward hedges without doing so at progressive discounts to cash)."
54
If I see backwardation in anything but interest rate futures (where it is normal for contract prices in the front months to be higher), I am immediately alerted to the fact that a normal seasonal futures trade may not be profitable. In fact, such a condition may cause me to consider going opposite to the seasonal tendency. Notice that I used the words alerted and consider. As stated by Moore Research, backwardation is the underlying cause for many seasonal futures trades. Backwardation in the interest rate contracts is the opposite of that in the commodities. The back months become higher in price than the front months. Backwardation there will also cause me to be alerted to potential problems.
Checking Fundamentals: Position of Commercials and Large Traders There are two sources I can look at to see the position of the major players in the markets:
1. The exchange issued "Position of Large Traders Report." 2. The open interest of Put and Call options on futures. The normal position of commercial and large traders is to be short the various commodity markets, and long the interest bearing financial futures. What I am concerned with is if the "big guys" decide to get long commodity futures (short financial futures). This situation mayor may not occur in conjunction with backwardation. Getting long commodity futures means the large traders are buying futures or selling Put options. Getting long interest rates means getting short financial futures. To do this the "big guys" are selling financial futures, and buying Put options. If a major shift in open interest does occur, I will reconsider any proposed seasonal spread trades, and may even consider a reverse spread entry.
The Position of Large Traders Report This report is issued once a month by the exchanges.
55
It is not a timely report and is issued two weeks after the data are known. It becomes increasingly less reliable as time passes and the next report is due. However, for purposes of spread trading, this report is fairly adequate. The Position of Large Traders Report is available by calling the exchanges and is available from data services that carry news reports.
Put and Call Open Interest A current view of the position of commercial and large trader interests can be ascertained by looking at the Put and Call open interest in options for the individual contracts that are going to be included in the seasonal spread. The reason for checking this factor is that the large traders and commercials are the parties who write and sell most of the available options in any market. Put and Call open interest by month is not generally available in newspapers. As far as I know, it must be obtained commercially from data services that carry the daily reported figures. Availability probably includes every live and end-of-day data service, because the exchanges release open interest by contract along with volume and prices on a daily basis. (By the way, futures and options volume and open interest figures are always reported a day late.) I'm going to show you what I see and what I look for on my computer screen. Suppose I had a seasonal trade to get long the September contract for US 30 Year Bonds (T-Bonds) and short the September contract for US 10 Year Notes (TNotes), also known as the NOB Spread (shouldn't it be called the BON Spread?). Assuming there is no news that would prevent me from taking this trade, I would then begin examining the options open interest for bonds. First I would look at the open interest of the near and at-the-money strike prices in the September T -Bonds. Since the commercials are usually short interest rates, the normal position for them to be in the T-Bonds would be to be short Puts or long I-Bonds. Remember, interest rate markets are upside down from the commodity markets. For the market to be normal, there should be significantly more Put open interest than Call open interest. If this were not the case, I would be alerted that there may be something abnormal going on, perhaps something I have not picked up from the news.
56
20 18 20 2746 7292
..... 'jii 36 36 6370 13008
10 355
12-15
12-15
100 355
12-15
12-15
12-15
With Treasury Bond futures at 117-15, Put open interest for the 117 down to the 112 strike prices totals 60,604 contracts. Now let's look at the open interest for the same strikes on the September Treasury Bond Calls.
57
.. ····j9 37 37 6003 11610
10 2 8 2435 6030
36 355
2 355
12-15
12-15
12-15
12-15
12-15
The Call open interest for the 118-123 strike prices totals only 45861, showing that the Put sellers, usually the commercial interests in T-Bonds, are still short interest rates by being short Puts (in effect, long Bonds) by a substantial margin over noncommercial interests (generally the public). Since this is the normal condition I would expect for the T-Bonds, I have only to ascertain that T-Notes are in a similar condition. An inspection ofT-Note open interest shows 38,220 Calls and 48,176 Puts. There is obviously a much more balanced open interest condition in T-Notes than in T-Bonds. This is probably because the public does not usually get involved in T-Notes. Nevertheless, the T-Note open interest is in line with what I would expect it to be. The short Put open interest among the commercials is greater than the short open interest in Calls. I would now be able to proceed with the trade based upon the factor of open interest provided everything else was correct. To repeat, I want a normal progression in TBond and T -Note prices from high front months to lower back months because this trade involves an interest rate spread. Let's now look to see if there is any backwardation in my supposed NOB spread.
58
US TREASURY BOND PRICES September
11106
December
11023
March
11008
June
10923
September
10907
The progression from high to low prices is normal for T-Bonds. US TREASURY TEN YEAR NOTE PRICES September
10824
December
]0811
March
]0802
June
10723
I
]0711
September
The progression from high to low prices is normal for T -Notes.
Based upon any market moving news, a normal progression ofT-Bond and T-Note prices, and a normal condition in open interest, I would be inclined to take this trade. The only remaining factor is an entry based upon an appropriate chart signal. My chart entry signals will be discussed in a later chapter.
59
60
Chapter 6 Filtering Process: Time Window
Seasonal spreads, no matter how they are derived, will pass through an optimal window in time when an entry is "best" made. There will also be an optimal "best" time for exit. These time windows were and are discovered by a process of iteration and averaging. Today, with the aid of high speed computers, they are fairly precise in their optimization. Yet the various services that provide seasonal spread trades will generally agree that blindly trading seasonal windows is not the best way to enter seasonal spread trades. I have seen seasonal windows open in excess of one month on either side of the optimized best window. It is because of this variance, that some sort of technical indicator is needed as a filter to enhance the timing of entry and exit. One needs to see when prices are actually creating the conditions for entry. Let's view some actual seasonal spread trades in light of the optimized seasonal windows and compare those seasonal windows with the period of time in which the best actual entry could have been made. First let's look at a May SoybeanlWheat spread to be entered on about the third Monday in February. This trade is based on the fact that Soybeans tend to be flat to slightly up in the Spring, while Wheat prices are beginning to be depressed by the commercials going into the Wheat harvest. This trade generally works 13 out of 15 years.
61
SKIWK
242.50 240.00 237.59 235.09 232.59 ., 230 . 00 onibl e optimize d 227.59 exit date. 225 .00 222.50 220.1'19 217.50 215.1'10 212.59 210.1'11'1 207.50 285.80 202.50 208.1'11'1 197.50 195.1'11'1 192.58 190.81'1 167.51'1 """",","",,,, I, I"" ,,,,,,, 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111,11111111,,, ,."" ....... I Jdn Feb Mdr Apr MdY
165.1'10
Can you see that the optimized entry date for this trade was about as good as it gets? It harmonized perfectly with a chart pattern signal I will show you later. But look at the terrible exit this trade would have made if you were to follow the trade until the optimized completion date. Also note the position of the exit had you liquidated the trade based upon a chart pattern. The difference between the two exit dates was 18 points or $900. The chart pattern exit was good for a total gross gain on the trade of $1,525. The gross gain using the optimized exit was $625.00. Taking the trade in the period shown above was obviously not typical of the best exit dates found in other years. I have proven repeatedly that it is much better to exit via chart patterns than on optirnized dates. Next I want to show you a chart in which a great improvement over the optimized entry date could have been made.
62
LCJfLCQ
Pattern entry date
Optiroized Optimi:zsd entry date_
I I
11.698 11.288 10.898 10.488 10.898 9.6898 9.2098 6.6888 6.4898 6.0888 7.6888 7.2098 6.S808 6.4088 6.0088 5.6000 5.2988 4.S0ae 4.4088 4.1'1088 3.6000 3.2000 2.60013 2.40813
",.11,1111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111[111111111111111111111111111111111111 Jdn
Feb
Mdr
Apr
The chart above shows the seasonal spread long April Live Cattle, short August Live Cattle. Years of testing has shown this spread to be 93% accurate. It is generally profitable 14 out of 15 years. Optimizing the entry date would have this trade entered on about the third Friday in March. Did you notice that the optimized exit date could not have been more perfect? It hit the exact high of the very brief widening of the spread. In fact, this trade is an excellent example of how seasonality works. For most of the year, August Cattle gained on April Cattle. Research into seasonality through numerous computer iterations spotted that approximate window in time when April Cattle either rose in price more than August Cattle or decreased in price at a slower rate. In this particular instance, Live Cattle prices for both contracts were in steep decline at the very inception of the optirnized window in time. By March 31, both contracts had made an abrupt turn and moved up sharply, ending the decline in Cattle prices. The chart pattern entry caught this turn around in Live Cattle prices one day after the turn. However, the optirnized exit date proved to be far superior to the pattern exit date. 63
Let's l?ok at a few more charts to see what we can learn about seasonal spreads. Then, If you haven't already figured it out, I'll show you my astoundingly simple pattern recognition entry technique. EDJI.1IEDZ Opt:inliled exit date
1
.651313 .6131313 .551313 .5131313 .451313 .4131313 .351313 .3131313 .251313 .2131313 .151313 .1131313 .13500 .1313013 -0.1351313 -13 .1131313 -13.151313 -13.2131313 -13.251313 -13.3131313 -13.35013 -13.4131313 -13.451313 -13.5131313
The seasonal spread shown above involves long June Eurodollars/short December Eurodollars. This trade is entered approximately the end of the first week in March and exited the last week in April. It has been profitable, on average, 91% of the time. Did you notice that if you had entered and exited this trade on the optimized dates, you would have lost money? However, using chart pattern entry signals, there never would have been an entry because there never was an entry signal within the time window I would use for an~ spread trade, i.e., ten trading days before until ten trading days after the optimized entry date.
64
LCVIFCK
Opt:imized entry date
I, ... ,1,.,,,.,,,,, ,,,., 1.,." .. 1," I,ll, .,,111111 1IIIIIIIIIilIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIMllllllllllIi1IIIIIIIIIJlllllllllllllllilllillJIII11dllllllllll Feb
Mar
Apr
ay
un
67.6139 67.299 66.81313 66.41313 66.1399 65.61313 65.299 64.899 64.4139 64.91313 63.6139 63.2139 62.899 62.4139 02.131313 01.61313 01.2913 013.8130 60.4139 00.13139 5'3.6130 5'3.209 58.809 58.41313
u
The spread pictured above involves long October Live Cattle and short May Feeder Cattle. The optimized entry date is about the second Friday in March. The optimized exit date is around the last Friday in April. Obviously the trade was a loser in the year shown, although this trade is profitable 93% of the time over a 15 year period. Here we see a perfect example of a generally reliable trade losing because of fundamental conditions. In the previous year, there was a shortage of Feeder Cattle. Not many cattle had been brought to the feed pens. Feed lots did not have a sufficient number of feeders to sell to the slaughter houses. Simultaneously, there were plenty of Cattle still out on the farms and ranches. Therefore, the seasonal spread could only have worked in reverse, i.e. non-seasonally. Understanding how to trade this spread wasbased on knowledge of the fundamentals. Can you see that it's important to have such fundamental knowledge? There is no pattern entry signal at or on either side of the entry date for taking the trade on a seasonal basis.
65.
In fact, b~sed on the fundamentals, there was a wonderful chart pattern entry signal f?r reversmg thi.s trade and domg the exact opposite of the nOImal seasonal spread. I 11 show you this same trade done properly in Chapter 7. LCVIFCK
Optimized entry date
".".1",,,.,,, ' ' ' ' ' ' 'oI,,,'',,,,,,,"IIIIIIIIIIIIIII,IIIIIII'111111111i11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
67.600 67.200 66.800 66.400 66.000 65.600 65.200 64.800 64.400 64.000 63.600 63.200 62.800 62.401'1 62.000 61.600 61.200 60.800 60.400 60.000 59.600 59.200 58.81'10 58.400
Jut
A bit later, the situati.on changed and a nonnal seasonal spread window opened up nght on schedule. It IS the reverse of the trade on the previous page. It is long May ~eeder Cattle/short October (or August) Live Cattle. The chart above shows where ~t happened. The optimized entry is the first Monday in May, and the optimized exit IS the second Friday in May.
T~is trade gave virtually perfect entry and exit signals corresponding almost exactly WIth chart pattern signals. The above chart gives an upside down view of the spread. You see it as LCVIFCK Nonnally, one would graph the futures to show the spread FCKlLCV. . I sup~ose it' ~ about time to show you these same charts and perhaps a few others to explam my sunple entry and exit signals. 66
Chapter 7 Filtering Process: Entry and Exit Signals
My entry and exit signals for spread trading are about the same as my entry and exit signals for outright futures trades. The main difference is that in the case of spreads I'm looking at a line chart of connected closes instead of a bar chart showing opens, highs, lows, and closes. The Law of Charts Over many years of trading, I have come to understand that there is an invisible law that governs anything that can be depicted as either a bar or line chart. All bar or line charts have certain things in common. They all make fonnations that I call "1-2-3's," "Ledges," "Ross Hooks," and "Trading Ranges." (See Appendix A for details on these fonnations when using bar charts.) It doesn't seem to matter what is being charted. The chart can be of egg production by Leghorn hens in August, average gas meter readings in Pacoima, or typical mortgage loans in Eastern Pennsylvania for the past two decades. These fonnations are more easily spotted on a bar chart than on a line chart. Nevertheless, they exist on all charts. Here is what they look like on a line chart of spreads:
67·
r will enter on the upside or downside breakout of
I will enter on a breakout of the high or low point of a ledge when all filters are right for the trade.
the #2 point of a 1-2-3 fonnation if all other filters are right for the trade.
Ledge ~
~ 1
3
A Ross Hook (Rh) is fanned at the point made by the fIrst and all subsequent price corrections following the breakout of a #2 point or the frrst correction subsequent to the breakout of a Ledge or a Trading Range.
The chart patterns I use and my entry and exit signals are shown above and below. There is really no difference between them. An entry signal to go short is the same as an exit signal for a long position. An entry signal to go long is the same as an exit signal for a short position. ns = natural suppon
nr =
natural rtsiS'tanCt too
Ledge_~
_
bottom
bottom
I will exit .. long trade on Q take· out of a natucaI support point. I will exit a short trade upon a take· out of a natucaI resistance point. Rh
~ n
1
":'
n,
1
3
68
Now let's look at the charts we previously viewed. After that, we'll look at additional charts so you can see more of how everything works together. SKIWK
Natural Suppo The entire topping fonnation is nothing more than a large Trading Range.
corresponds exactly to the breakout of a Ross Hook. Entry- could also have been made at a breakout of the #2 point.
212.513 210.013 237.513 235.00 232.513 Homble optimized 2313.139 exit date. 227.59 225.1313 222.513 2213.013 217.50 215,00 212.50 210 .00 297.50 295.00 202.50 21313.1313 197.50 1'35.013 192.513 190.00 187.513 185.130
11""""IIII'"'"'I""'IIIIIIIII'illlllllllllllllllllllll1IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII,lllilllll",II,."" .... Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Here we see a 1-2-3 low coming during the window of time in which the trade might have been entered. A breakout of the #2 point is a satisfactory chart pattern entry signal. If the breakout of the 1-2-3 is not taken, then a breakout of the Ross Hook (Rh) also gave an excellent entry signal and was coincident with the optirnized entry date. The chart pattern exit signal of natural support was far superior to the optimized entry signal and factored into account the fact that the spread was no longer working. Did you notice that prior to the optinrized exit date, there was a 1-2-3 high followed by a series of Ross Hooks, and that the entire topping formation was a highly volatile Trading Range? There was a ledge forming at the optinrized exit date.
69
LCJtLCQ
11.600 11,200 10.800 10.'100 10.000 9.6000 9.2000 8.8080 8.'1000 8.0008 7.6800 7.2000 6.8008 6.'1000 6.0808 5.6800 5.2800 '1.8080 '1.'1008 '1.0808 3.6800 3.2000 2.8000 2.'1000
Pattern entry date
Optimized entry date
1,1",1,,11111,11111111111,111111111111111,11111111111111II1111111111111111111111,11111,1,, Jan
Feh
Mar
Apr
This trade presented a superior entry signal at a breakout of the #2 point of the 1-2-3 low. Even an entry at a breakout of Rh would have been acceptable. However, the natural support exit signal was much worse than the optimized exit signal. The exit based on the chart pattern signal would have resulted in a breakeven trade with an entry base upon a breakout of the #2 point, and a loss with an entry based upon a break out of the Rh. In trading you have to take the good with the bad. There is no perfect way to trade. Later, when we get into "Contrarian Trading," you'll see that you could have reversed this spread and profited nicely by doing so. Do you see that the pattern exit date is really the taking out of a #2 point of a 1-2-3 high? Reversing the spread at the pattern exit point would have resulted in an excellent long term trade because the spread continued down beyond what is shown on the chart.
70
ED:MIEDZ Optimized entry date Optimized
1111111111111111 Mar
I ,
11Iilllllll I 11 11 ; I1II1I , I Ill, illllllllllllll II1 Apr
May
LJiJun 11I1IIII1
.6508 .6008 .5508 .5008 .'1508 .'1808 .3508 .3808 .2508 .21:108 .1588 .11:188 .8500 .8008 -8.0588 -0.1008 -0.1508 -0.2008 -0.2508 -0.3008 -0.3508 -0.'1008 -0.'1508 -0.5808
Entry via a chart pattern signal could not have been made on this seasonal spread. The trade was to go long the spread, but an entry signal never appeared within the allotted time window. The lack of a pattern entry signal filtered out what would have been a losing trade had entry been made solely on optimized dates. Do you realize that during most of the time between optimized dates the spread was in a Trading Range? Reversing the spread as prices took out the low of that Trading Range would have yielded fat profits. When you notice that for fundamental reasons a spread is obviously not working, the best thing you can do is to reverse it and go the other way. That is what I call "Reality Trading," or the "Thinking Man's Way to Trade." Later on in the course we will delve more deeply into this kind of trading.
71
FCKlLCV
,.... 1",,, .. ""''''''''''''''oI""""'llllllllllilllllIll,,III,II[II[1111lllllllllltlllllllIlllllllllll[lllllilllllllllllliliilllIII Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jui Do you remember this trade? Based solely on optimized entry dates, this trade would have been a big loser. This is the one where the fundamentals in Live Cattle versus Feeder Cattle should have had us going counter-seasonally. What I've done here is to show you how !lIe chart would have looked if it had been graphed as FCKfLCV instead of LCVIFCK. You can see that a breakout of the #2 point, or even a breakout of the first or second Rh, would have resulted in a profitable trade. The natural support exit worked just fine and came 17 trading days before the optimized exit date on the last Friday in April. Later on, the FCKfLCV trade worked again, only this time it was seasonally correct. We showed it upside down in the previous chapter. On the next page, you will see it right side up.
72
FCKlLCV
Exit on breakout
".. ,.1",.,."".""".,."""."""",'1111111111III[IIIII"IIII[IIII[IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIJIIIIIII11[11111"'I'IIJI"'illiliillllll Feb
Mar
Apr
May
un
u
This is the trade that could have been picked almost perfectly by using optimized dates. The optimized dates in this case did a little better on both the entry and the exit signals than did the chart pattern trades. It is not untypical for a seasonal trade to have entry and exit dates quite close to one another. In this case, the seasonally optimized days were only 10 trading days apart. Before the advent of the computer, it was virtually impossible to so closely pinpoint seasonal spreads. Seasonal spread profitability windows were much less specific.
When I learned these trades many years ago, the best I could do was to memorize the general time period in which the trade usually worked. These time frames typically covered at least a month and sometimes more. I had no way in the world to slice time windows as precisely as can be done by computer.
73 .
I believe that now is the time to show you some additional seasonal spreads. Once again, the computer has done something that would have been extremely difficult to do in years past. Some good examples of computer generated spreads are found in the currencies. How in the world would a person go about manually detecting a spread such as long Japanese Yen and short British Pound? Such spreads are difficult to think of as seasonal. Is there really a time of the year when J-Yen goes up against B-Pound? Apparently there is. We begin the next chapter with such a trade and others like it. If at this point in the book you are not thoroughly familiar with my pattern entry signals, then I suggest you go back to Chapters 6 and 7, and review the charts in them. You might also take a look at Appendix A for additional help. From here on we're going to move right along with these seasonal trades. We'll also be introducing some other uses of spreads along with examples in subsequent chapters.
74
Chapter 8
Seasonal Spread Examples
We begin with a JYUIBPU spread.. Entry is made on a breakout of the #2
optimizedl entry date is same as #1 point.
orns.
OptinUzed exit date
.... ,""'"",1111111111111111111111111111111 Jun
75.
Jul
-9.3339 -9.3'188 -9.3509 -9.3609 -9.3709 -9.3809 -9.3909 -0.4009 -IL4139 -0.4209 -1'1.4309 -0.4409 -9.4509 -0.4609 -IL4709 -0.4809 -0.49Be -9.5088 -9.5188 -0.5200 -9.5339 -9.5400 -9.5500 -0.5688
We begin with a JYUil3PU spread. Entry is made on a breakout of the #2
entry date is same as #1 point.
orns. Optimized exit date
-B.33BO -B.31BO -B.3S90 -9.3690 -B.3790 -9.3B90 -B.3999 -9.4090 -9.'1190 -B.4290 -9.4390 -B.H90 -B.4S00 -0.4600 -9.4700 -0.4B90 -0.19BO -0.5BBO -0.SHlO -0.5Z90 -0.5390 -0.5400 -0.5500 -B.560B
",,,,,,,,,,,11111111111111111,1111111111111 Jun Jul
The first thing to notice is that, although this spread usually is profitable 12 out of 15 years, overall this doesn't seem to be one of the major winning years. The optimized entry was a little better than the pattern entry, but after much struggling, had you liquidated the trade on the optimized exit date, a very small profit was available. The same situation holds true for the pattern entry and exit dates. Virtually the same small profit was available. I show you this because I don't want to delude you into thinking that you will always win when trading seasonal spreads. The fundamentals for this trade are based on the tendency for B-Pound to move lower against other currencies beginning the fourth week in May and continuing until the fourth week in June. A spread trade in September currencies taken in May would be tenuous indeed. The back months of the currencies trade very thinly and truly lack liquidity. Spreads between national currencies were not common until recently. Now there is sufficient data to be able to compute a reliability factor for such trades.
76
Apparently, B-Pound did not want to go down against the D-Mark as well. This can be seen in the seasonal spread chart that follows. By the way, 1-2-3 fonnations can fonn within a Trading Range. I purposely did not mark every fonnation on these charts so that you could learn by marking them off yourself. It might be advantageous for you to be doing that as we go along through the course. DMUil3PU No entty signal within 2 weeks of optimize d entry date. _ _ _ _ _--.
RossHook came more than 2 weeks after the optimized entry date.
-0.8400 -0.B440 -9.84BO -0.8520 -0.BS6B -0.86BO -B.8640 -0.86BO -B.8720 -0.B760 -0.BBBB -B.8B40 -B.BBBO -B.8920 -0.8960 -0.9B90 -0.904B -B.90B0 -0.9120 -0.9160 -0.9200 -B.9240 -0.92BO -0.9320
, .. ,,,,,,,,,1111111111111111,1111111111111 Jun Jul
The reason I wanted to show you this trade is that my simple chart entry signals would have kept you out of the trade, whereas the entry from the optimized time window would have resulted in a breakeven or minimally profitable trade. The available profit was hardly worth the accompanying emotional and mental stress that were also available. The lack of chart signals during the two-week window prior to the optimized entry date may seem to have given a hint that all might not be well with the seasonality factor of this spread. However, one cannot give too much emphasis to the chart patterns prior to and subsequent to optimized entry dates unless the patterns signal that the move is coming early or late and that entry is at hand. Seasonal spread trades do not need periods of accumulation or distributio~ to work. 77
They also do not need a top or bottom following a trend. They can occur suddenly and counter-trend to the previous spread action. What you are trading with seasonal spreads is the proven tendency for them to behave in a certain manner during a certain time period. The following long August Soymeallshort August Bean Oil was an unusual trade in that the optimized entry date and the optimized exit date both fell within my own, in this case larger, window in time. The optimized entry date was the second Thursday in June. The optimized exit date was the third Thursday in June. In other words, the entire trade was to take place within a single week. If you'll remember, my own entry window is from ten trading days prior to the optirnized entry date until ten trading days after the optimized entry date. That means the window in time I would be looking at would span in time from the last Thursday in May through the fourth Thursday in June. Let's look at that trade now. SMQIBOQ The fu-st possible entry date for my time window.
Optinrized exit date
-68.000 -70.000 -72.000 -74.000 -76.000 -78.000
-Ba.aaa
Last possible entry date for my time window.
.................. ,.,'".,,",",',,',', II,IIII'II""'lIoIlIllIllllilllllllllllllllllll Apr May Jun Jul
-BZ.333 -B4.0B3 -86.000 -88.3130 -90.3133 -9Z.003 -94.383 -96.01313 -98.0133 -1013.130 -lBZ.BB -104.130 -1136.133 -10B.BB -110.00 -11Z.03 -114.03
The trade taken on the optimized dates made a small profit. No entry signal of mine occurred that would have gotten me into this trade.
78
Perhaps you're wondering whether or not I miss a lot of trades. The answer is yes, I do. I want trades to be as near a sure thing as I can get them to be. I do not consider the small profit that was made on this trade to have been worth the effort. My entry signals are part of my filtering process, and I want them to keep me out of trades that carry more than an ordinary risk of not working. Taking every trade that comes along just because it is there has never worked for me. I want to be as selective as I possibly can. Taking every trade just because it exists or has proven profitable a high percentage of the time is, in my opinion, a form of overtrading. Far too many traders are overtraders. One sign of a mature trader is that he is able to judge which trades are worth taking and which are not. The mature trader typically has methods for filtering his trades. He seldom chases a trade. Computerization of futures prices into databases has made possible many seasonal spread trades that in the past were not readily seen or even known. Some of these trades may eventually prove to have been solely a matter of time and chance. Sometimes it is difficult to see any known fundamental rationale for the trade. It is therefore all the more important to filter these trades by any practical means. Two days after the optimized close of SMQIBOQ another seasonal trade window was about to begin. This trade was BON/SMN, long July Oil, short July Meal. You'll find it on the next page.
79.
Before continuing wi~ our discu~sion of this trade, it might be helpful for you to mark and label the vanous formatIons you see. This page is for you to use for that purpose.
BON/S:MN
11.41313 11.21313 11.131313 10.81313 10.61313 10.41313 113.21313 113.131313 9.813130 9.0131313 9.1131313 9.2131313 9.013130
B.8BBB
entry date identical with breakout day.
exit date resulted in small loss.
"""""""""'''''''''''''""01"11""11,1"",,,,,,11,,1,1111,111111111111111111111111111111111111111111,111111111111 Feh
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
I
8.60130 8.4000 8.213013 8.1313130 7.813130 7.6131313 7.4000 7.20130 7.0131313 6.8131313
Jul"'"''''''
What is the formation called that corresponds to the optimized entry date? H would you label the formati.on that created the natural support exit? Wha~ wo~~ you call the very last formatIOn that IS forming on the chart, the one next to the last arrow on the chart? Do you see any Ledges on this chart? Note: On the following chart, con~ecutIve 1-2-3 fo.rmations, e.g. 1-2-3 low followed by 1-2-3 high or viceversa, mdIc~te conges~IOn In the form of either a Ledge or a Trading Range. Every Ross Hook IS a potentIal # 1 pomt, but not every # 1 point is a Ross Hook.
80
Note: A RDSS Hook is always a potential #1 point.
BON/S:MN
Rh!
11.498 11.298 11.1398 10.898 113.698 10.498 10.298 113.098 9.B098 9.6098 9.4088 9.2098 9.13088 B.B088 8.6098 8.4088 B.2088
Ent on breakout
B.BOB8
!
Rh
exit date resulted in small loss.
1 Rh
7.8088 7.0088 7.4080 7.2098 7.13088 6.8088
""""",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,11111,",'"11111,,,1111.111111111111111111111[111111111111111.1111,1111,[11111111111111"" Feh
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Ju I
The optimized entry date and the chart pattern entry date were identical. However, the chart pattern exit gave far superior results to the optimized exit. Again, the optimized dates gave a very brief window of time for this trade. The optimized dates for being both in and out were 10 days, from the third Friday in June through the fifth Thursday. This trade finds its fundamental rationale in the greater demand for Soybean Oil over Soybean Meal in late Spring and early Summer. It has an 80% probability that it will work in any given year. It typically works 12 out of 15 years. It might interest you to know that in the years the trade works within the optimized dates, it averages $732.50 per contract. In the years in which it loses, the average loss is S 170. Based on my pattern entry and exit dates, the trade made 24 points. However, this is an "equity" trade. An equity trade is one in which the contracts involved do not have identical tick values. In this case, Bean Oil has a tick value of $6 and Soy Meal has a tick value of $10. I'll show you how to handle this sort of trade. It's a bit tricky.
81
Computing Spread Equity
The problem is that we are confronted with two futures contacts having differing price values per tick. Because of that, we cannot calculate our profit or loss as simply the difference between prices. We have to make an adjusted calculation for this kind of trade. We can use the BON/SMN trade as an example. For the trade on the previous page, let's assume that we entered the spread when July Oil was at a price of 2730 and July Meal was at a price of 1765. The spread differential is 965. In other words, we entered the spread at 965 points of difference. How do we value those 965 points on an equity basis? Oil moves at $6 and Meal at $10 per tick. If the prices of each contract were to fall by 50 ticks, the price differential would remain the same 965 points, but what would happen to the trade equity? To find out, we have to compute an equity value for each of the two underlying futures in the spread. Calculation 2730 x 6.00=16,380 1765 x 10.00=17,650 At entry, the equity value for the trade is 16,380 - 17,650 = -1270 If prices moved down 50 points on each of the underlying futures, we would have: 2680 x 6.00=16,080 1715 x 10.00=17,150 The equity value for the traQe would be 16,080 - 17,150 = -1,070. Our equity is less negative and we are making money. Ifprices moved up 50 points on each of the underlying futures, we would have: 2780 x 6.00=16,680 1815 x 10.00=18,150 The equity value for the trade is 16,680, - 18,150 = -1,470. We would be losing on this trade because we now would be more negative than when we first entered. A brief exanlination of what is happening will further explain the equity situation. 82
If both Oil and Meal are going down the same number of price ticks, Meal at $10 is going down faster than Oil at $6.00. Since the spread is long Oil ~d short Meal, Oil is moving down a lesser dollar amount than Meal and we are making profits. When both Oil and Meal are going up at the same rate of speed in price ticks, Meal at $10 is going up a greater dollar amount than Oil at $6.00. Since the spread is long Oil and short Meal, Oil is moving up less distance in dollars than Meal and we are losing money on the spread. For those with sufficiently deep pockets, there is a solution to the equity problem when one doesn't want to compute the equity in the trade. The solution is to equate the position on a fractional basis. Since Bean Oil is 60% (3/5) as much per tick as Meal, it is possible that for every three Meal contracts sold, five 011 contracts would be purchased. This renders a perfectly even spread, provided that the two extra 011 contracts can be purchased at the same price as those for the remamder of the spread. Obviously, placing the trade in this fashion would require legging in on all contracts. Why? Because there is no way to know at what pnce 011 would be entered via a spread trade. The broker who fills a spread trade is interested only in the price differential of the spread and not in the actual price of the futures used. The broker is going to try to put that spread on at the specified 965 po~ts. H~ may use any of a number of combinations of Oil and Meal prices to accomplIsh the Job. There are many exchange recognized equity trades that have been proven over the years. The Crush Spread and the Crack Spread are two of these. Gold and Silver also have proven track records as the underlying contracts for seasonal spreads. With that in mind, let's look at a spread between Gold and Silver. On an equity basis I use two Silver contracts for every Gold contract. Silver moves at $50 per full point. A full point in Gold is valued at $100. The spread we will be tracking is long December Gold and short December Silver. I'll show you how the spread chart looks on a one-to-one basis. I'll als~ show you how the same chart looks on a two-silver-to-one-gold basis. The trade IS nonnally entered around the second Monday in June, with an optirnized exit date around the last Wednesday in June.
83.
GCZlSIZ Break below natural Supp ort
entry date
Breakout of Trading Range high
-75.I'IBI'I -82.51'11'1 -91'1.1'11'11'1 -97.51'11'1 -11'15.BI'I -112.51'1 -12B.BI'I -127.51'1 -135.BI'I -142.51'1 -15B.BI'I -157.51'1 -165.BI'I -172.51'1 -18B.I'II'I -187.51'1 -195.BI'I -21'12.51'1 -21B.BI'I -217.51'1 -225.1'11'1 -232.51'1 -24B.BB -247.5B
""A""" ... I,I'I,"""'", ,11""" """1,11""",1"""'1,,,,,1,,11,11111111 r
~
~n
~i
GCZI2SIZ Do you notice the difference between this chart and the one above? The .difference is in the price scale on the right . In thi s case, I have . mutliplied the spread to indicate 2 short Silver contracts for each lonll: Gold.
t . I •• I . I I , •• I I I .
A
r
.1,1,101",,,,"'" ,1""",.""""11"","1,,,,,",,,,,,1,,1,,11111111 a
Jun
84
Jui
-541'1.131'1 -555.1313 -571'1.131'1 -585.1'11'1 -61'11'1.1313 -615.1313 -631'1.1'113 -645.1'11'1 -661'1.1'113 -675.131'1 -691'1.1313 -71'15.1'11'1 -7213.1'11'1 -735.1'113 -751'1.1'11'1 -765.1'11'1 -781'1.1313 -795.131'1 -8113.131'1 -825.1313 -8413.1313 -855.013 -8713.01'1 -885.1313
Some seasonal spreads are based upon the fundamental relationship between an old crop and a new crop. Some Live Cattle seasonal spreads are based upon a similar condition. The fundamentals underlying Live Cattle spreads have to do with the gestation period of cows and when they drop their calves, and the availability of feed at certain times of the year. Also involved are the times of year when farmers typically bring cattle to the feed lots. In the following seasonal spread, we purchase October Live Cattle and sell the following year's February Live Cattle. The spread is put on late in the fourth week of June. This is to take advantage of the seasonal tendency for October Live Cattle to gain on the following February. This old time trade usually lasts for several weeks. The optirnized exit date is at the end of the first week in August. LCVI1.CG -B.151'11'1 -1'1.31'11'11'1 -1'1.451'11'1 -1'1.61'11'11'1 -1'1.751'11'1 -1'1.91'11'11'1 -1.1'151'11'1 -1.21'11'11'1 -1.351'11'1 -1.51'11'11'1 . , d try d t-1.651'11'1 The optimiZe en a ':-1. 81'11'11'1 and the pattern entry -1. 951'11'1 are identical. -2.11'11'11'1 -2.251'11'1 -2.41'11'11'1 -2.551'11'1 -2.71'11'11'1 -2.851'11'1 -3.1313131'1 -3.151'113 -3.31'1131'1 -3.45131'1 -3.61'1131'1
At the time this chart was made, the trade was still continuing to be profitable.
111111111111,1",1111111111111111111111,1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 A r
Ma
Jun
Jul
It will be interesting to see which exit technique garners the best results.
85
A Word about Optimized Exit Dates Some optimized exit dates on seasonal trades occur after First Notice day. In fact, some of the dates come during the delivery period. In my own trading, I will be out of any spread trade within a day or two on either side of First Notice day. If past price action subsequent to First Notice day is what has caused the spread to be profItable, then I am not interested in such price action. Many seasonal spreads occur in already thin and illiquid markets. I do not want to jeopardize my capital by being in a spread trade after First Notice day when even the most liquid of contracts become very thin and illiquid. Also on the topic of optimized exit dates, when they come before I get an exit signal, and if the spread is moving my way, I will stay with my natural support, natural resistance exit signals. Time and experience have proven these to be superior overall to optimized exit dates. Exit from any trade, including seasonal spread trades, always involves a certain amount of judgment on the part of the trader. I would not find it unreasonable to see a trader using a money stop, a percentage stop, etc. At least some sort of catastrophic stop should always be used. For years I have said and written that no one can tell you where to place your stop. In the case of seasonal spreads, your stop can be mental, or resting in the market as a spread order inverse to the trade in which you hold a position, based on the number of points in the spread differential.
Spread Order Entry Order entry for spread trades is a bit different from orders solely for entry into an outright futures trade. When putting on the trade as a spread, here is the usual way I enter the order: Buy number of contracts, month and commodity, and sell number of contracts, month, and commodity, on a spread of number of points premium to the buy/sell side.
86
Premium refers to the amount of positive differential between the contracts to be spread. If the differential is a positive number, i.e . the. price of the ~uy side is greater than the price of the sell side, then the prelllium IS to the llliY sIde. If the contracts to be sold are greater in price than the contracts to be purchased, then the premium is to the sell side. It is acceptable to tag the premium to the name of the commodity by saying "premium to the Wheat," or "premium to the Gold." Here's an example: With December Corn at 2.95 a bushel and December Wheat at 4.75 a bushel, if you wanted to buy Corn and sell Wheat, the price differential for the December contracts is a negative 1.80 a bushel. I would place the order like this: Buy one December Corn contract and sell one December Wheat contract on a spread, one-dollar-eighty, premium to the sell side, or premium to the Wheat. When putting on the trade one leg at a time, I place the entry order for both sides of the trade in the normal way I would enter any outright futures trade. For those of you who would like more information on ordering futures, options, and spreads, I refer you to the TOPS entry in Appendix C.
A Dual Entry Trade Before ending this chapter, I want to show you a "dual entry" trade. This is a trade that gave more than one entry signal within the time window I allotted for the trade. The trade took place via an SMQIBOQ spread. Interestingly, the optimized entry and exit dates produced a sure-fire loser. The chart pattern entries produced two winners, with the second winner being even better than the first. Both trades had entries within the twenty-trading-day time window. The following page contains all the details.
87 -
SMQIBOQ -625. -659. -675.
-799. -725. -759. -775.
-899. -825. -859. -875. -999. -925.
-959. -975.
exit date
'M"""""" ,,,11,,,1,,,,,,,,,,",,11111111111111111111111111111111111 a.y
Jun
Jul
-1999. -1925. -1859. -1975. -1199. -1125. -1158. -1175. -1299.
Aug
The optimi~ed window was only five trading days in length, with the optimized entry date fallmg on the very high of the upward move,
88
Chapter 9
Non-Seasonal Spreads
Not all high probability spreads are seasonal. Many times simple common sense will unearth excellent spread trades. 1 usually find these through news stories and by staying alert to what is happening in agriculture, currencies and interest rates. Simple observation has given me many a winning trade spreading the D-Mark and the S-Franc, I have also found many excellent spread situations in the NOB (NoteslBonds) spread. When you are long l\otes and short Bonds, you are long the NOB. When you are short Notes and long Bonds, you are short the NOB. A quick glance at the yield curve, a news story, a speech by some important dignitary, an unexpected event or unexpected outcome of a statistical report from a governmental agency, or any change in governmental interest rate policies can create remarkable trending in this spread.
In earlier chapters I showed you an instance in which the LCIFC spread failed to work. Knowledge that Feeder Cattle were going up in price at the same time there was an oversupply of Live Cattle in the feed lots would have been sufficient information for the entry into a non-seasonal FC/LC spread. 1 also showed you a year in which Wheat was in short supply compared with the other grains. Long Wheat and short any other grain position could have been taken non-seasonally.
89
A news story that South African gold miners are going to go out on strike is more than adequate to justify entry into a long Gold/short Silver spread. If Mexican silver miners are rumored to be going on strike, you could use reverse logic for the spread. Let's look at some non-seasonal spreads that could have been taken based simply on common sense and a bit of knowledge of what was going on in the world at the time they could have been entered. DMBP
3
.. ",Jun ,.,., ."llllllld III1I1111 dlllillllllJilllJiill1 Jul Aug
-8458 -8475 -8588 -8525 -8558 8575 -8688 1 -8625 -86581 -8675 -8788 -8725 -8751l -8775 -8888 -8825 -8858 -8875 -8988 -8925 -8958 -8975 -9888 -9825
In June of 1995, there was a crisis in the British Government. The Prime Minister tendered his resignation, causing a vote in Parliament to have to be taken to see who would win as the next party leader. During this brief crisis, traders lost confidence in the British Pound due to uncertainty about the leadership in the United Kingdom. As far as I know, there was no seasonal trade that called for anyone to be long DMark and short British Pound at that time. Wouldn't common sense have dictated that you enter such a spread? Yes, simple logic dictates that when there is a crisis in leadership in any country, that country's currency is likely to take a hit.
90
In like manner, it should also have been just as clear that as soon as the crisis was over, if currency traders were satisfied that there would be no economic repercussions subsequent to the end of the crisis, there would be a good chance that the relationship between the D-Mark and the B-Pound would return to the proximity that was in effect before the crisis. DM'BP
Return to approximate original relationship~
3
.,,,', ,,' ,,,llllllllIlllllllllllllllllllllllllldllll Jun Jul Aug
-8458 -8475 -8588 -8525 -8558 -8575 -8688 -8625 -8658 -8675 -871l1l -8725 -8758 8775 -8888 1 -8825 -8858 -8875) -8988 -8925 -8958 -8975 -9888 -9825
Indeed, that is exactly what happened. No insider information was necessary to take advantage of this situation. The story was all over the news, Simple understanding and observation were all that was needed to enter the spread and thereby profit from it. This sort of event is not uncommon. In fact, it is becoming increasingly more common to encounter news events that can cause markets to make sharp moves. Taking advantage of such situations is a thinking person's way to trade.
91
Of course, at the time the crisis in the UK was over, you would have entered the spread BPIDM. Then it would have looked as you see in on the chart below. BPfDM
geee 8975 8958 8925 8988 8875 8858 8825 8888
87751 875BI
8725
.,.""",,1111111111111111,11111111111111111111111 Jun
Jul
87BB 8675 865B 8625 86BB 8575 855B 8525 85BB 8175 815B 8125
Aug
Sometimes an event occurs that does very little for a spread relationship between two contracts. In an earlier chapter I mentioned that quite often backwardation is a sign that opportunity may be just around the corner. In the chart that follows, you will see that Soybean Oil encountered backwardation, but did little in the way of giving a profit opportunity. Let's look at that now.
92
On the price page below, we can see that there is backwardation in Soybean Oil. g.Ji!jl.,'J .... @II·Jli'*
GB
IB R "
BOSZ
BOSU
BOSU
.2624 +.00110 t ... t ... .2625 .2598
.2617 +.01'188 t1".l. H ... .2628 .2591
l. .......
.2698
.261'18
.261112
.2591'1
1357 28113 43 20111
7385 15433 119 21'101
2378 11929 43 2001
15478 36895 253 2881
.2620 20111 .2607 1251
.2611 21'101 .2515 1336
.261l7 1326 . 26115 20111
.2603 1336 .2598 2001
BOSQ
.261'15 +.001'18 .261'18 .2590
.2626
.262O
,2608
.2598 08-23-95
.2591 09-21-95
.2590 10-23-95
.2591 '.0088 .•• .2685 .2565
tUt~
I
B06P .2595 +.0000 1 ....... .2681'1 .2571il
BOf>H .2595 ·.8U90 J. ....... .2690 .2588
.258!!
.2588
362 4636 17 2001
1978 5143 15 2801
.2600 1325 .2581'1 1301
.2598 1326 .2585 131!1i
.2G05
.260i1
.2565 12-20-95
el-23-96
.25?1'I
.260O
.2588 03-21-96
The August contract B05Q is priced at .2624. Each subsequent delivery month U, V, and Z are priced lower. It is only when you get to January of the following year B06F that you see prices in a later month higher than those in the previous month. This situation means that somebody is willing to pay a premium in August to lock in a price for Bean Oil in case it goes higher in the future. Someone wants that Bean Oil now' Backwardation is a situation that nonnally gives an alert that conditions are not nor· mal in any particular market. When I take note of backwardation, I immediately be· gin to look at a spread, long the front month and short a back month. I would expect the demand for the front month to cause it to move away from the back months, thereby causing a widening of the spread. However, in the case of Bean Oil the widening was minimal. It was certainly not enough to have made a really great trade. The chart on the following page shows the spread. The page after that shows the August and December Bean Oil charts. There is one other point of interest with this trade which I would like you to note. Although there was backwardation in Bean Oil, that backwardation occurred in a market whose prices were literally "all over the place." It is possible for that to happen. Even though someone urgently wanted the August Bean Oil and was willing to pay a premium to get it, during the period of backwardation the Bean Oil market overall moved strongly up and strongly down.
93·
The spread moved from -2 to 33 for a total of35 points and $210 as of the last date shown. However, it took from mid-May until early August to do so. BOQIBOZ 162 159 137 125 112 199 87 75 62 59 37 25 12
1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1
-12 -25 9 -37 1 -59 9 -62 1 -75 9 -87 1 -199. -112. -125.
This spread did not offer the smoothest of rides. There were a number of times where, unless you used a relatively large stop, you would have been stopped out. As a trader, you never win them all. Yet trades like this compel the trader to take them when the opportunity arises. It is only by looking back that you realize that this trade didn't turn out as well as might be expected. At its widest the spread was 40 points, i.e., $240.
94
BOQ
I
28.60(
i IIII \
2B.10(
t
27.60(
f
\ !ldlt f
27.10(
26.60(
tl[rl
[[
26.10(
2S.60(
25.10(
24.60(
OB
22 11
04
1B A
02
16
31
14
11
J
28
12 J
26 A
BOZ 28.350 27 850 27.350 26 850 26.350 25.850 25.350 24.850 24.350
95
96
Chapter 10 Fractional Spreads Fractional spreads may be created when a greater or lesser position is desired than what can be obtained through an outright futures position. What is a Fractional Spread? All that is necessary to create a fractional spread is to utilize exchange recognized spreads in futures that move radically differently from one another or which have different minimum tick fluctuations. Fractional spreads can be seasonal or nnnseasonal. They can also be derived from hedging. Differing Tick Fluctuations It is possible to spread Crude Oil with a minimum tick fluctuation of $10 against Heating Oil or Unleaded Gas, which each have minimum tick fluctuations of $4.20. It is possible to spread Soybeans with a minimum tick fluctuation of $12.50 against Soybean Meal with a minimum tick fluctuation of $10, or Soybeans against Bean Oil with a minimum tick fluctuation of $6. Actually, we've already looked at these types of spread from the viewpoint of tracking equity. Now we want to look at them to see how we can take a fractional position rather than an outright 100% futures position.
97
I'll ,show you some e~ampl~s of fractional spreads having differing tick fluctuations. Let s assume. that m mId-July you decided to begin watching the spread Soymeal/SoyOlI (SMlBO), and that you had infonnation that convinced you that SM w?uld move up strongly against BO. Let's also assume that you felt confident about this move, but that y~u did not feel that you could create total equity by buying 3 SM contracts and sellmg 5 BO. Instead ~ou decide to enter a fractional trade, long 2 SMll BO. Y~u would need to track this trade based on equity because SM ticks at $10 and BO tIcks at $6. At the time of entry, you would have created a fractional trade.
-525. -55B. -575. -6BB. -625. -65B. -675. -7BB. -725.
-75B . ... SMJBO -775.
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The strong upward thrust in early July could have given you the confidence you needed to enter 2 SM for each BO contract. The chart above is plotted at a I-to-l ratio. The chart on the following page shows the same trade plotted at a 2-to-l ratio.
98
2S:MflBO
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On a I-to-l basis, the trade would move 135 points. On a 2-to-l basis, the trade moves 262 points. As mentioned previously, you would track a trade like this one on an equity basis in order to know how much you are really making. During the period of this trade from entry to exit, BO moved down by 8 ticks. SM moved up 129 ticks. Since the trade was long 2 SM contracts, a profit of 1290 x 2 = $2,580 would have been made on that portion of the spread. An additional $48 would have been made on the short Bean Oil portion of the spread, for a total of $2,628. Looking at the arithmetic as we did earlier we have: Exit Entry SM-1962 x 10.00=19620 SM-1833 x 10.00=18330 BO-2723 x 6.00=16338 BO-2731 x 6.00=16386 At exit the equity value is 3282 At entry the equity value is 1944 Entry equity value 3282 - Exit equity value 1944 = 1338 + 1290 from second futures contract = $2,628. 99.
Radically Different Movements Ten Year Note futures often move much more slowly than do Long Bond futures. For some reason, the notes are less volatile than the bonds. I believe the greater volatility in the bonds is due to the greater number of speculators in the bonds. There are similar situations in other markets but not necessarily for the same reasons. The New York Stock Exchange futures (YX) typically move 55%-65% as much as the S&P 500 (SP) futures, but it has nothing to do with volatility. In the case of the stock indices, the size of the base has a lot to do with how these indices move relative to one another.
In one particular year, with a robust first-half year for the US stock markets, an outright futures position in the SP would have required margin of $8,000. As time progressed, the market became more volatile, and the margin requirements rose to $12,000. The margin on a YX futures contract was considerably less. Depending on your broker, margins ranged from $4,000 to $6,000 during the same period. It was obvious to many from the previous year's events that the stock market was going to rise. In actuality, by mid-year it had risen more than many had expected. It was also clear that investor money was going into the blue chip stocks more rapidly than into the broader market. Since the SP represents only 500 stocks versus YX which represents 1,500 stocks, it was clear that the narrower SP futures were going to rise faster than the broader YX futures. Now let's say you had wan~d to be long the US stock market futures, but you were unable or unwilling to put up the margin for an outright SP futures position. You could have made a fractional trade by purchasing long one S&P futures and selling short one YX futures. AS'mentioned earlier, YX moves approximately 55%-65% of the amount that SP moves. That means you could have created a position that moved fractionally as much as the SP, and you could have done it using the much lower spread margins of SP/YX. Let's compare an outright futures position in the SP with a spread SP/YX,
100
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The move in the outright S&P futures from the low shown on the chart to the highest point shown on the chart was 6,620 points or $165,500. Ho~e."er, for the average trader it would have taken considerable margin to hold the posltIOn from January 23 until June 15.
An
tright futures position in YX would have also required more margin than many
trad~~s are willing or able to put up, and would have resulted in a move of 3,285 points or $82,125.
In this case, the move by YX was far more disproportional to S&P than usual. It moved only 49.6% as much as SP. Let's look a chart of the spread SP/YX. 101'
................................................ 1.,,1111I1I1I1I11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111I111I11111111111111 Jdn
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
The spread moved 3,378 points or $84,450. It actually did better than an outright YX futures position and it did it at much less risk and with lower margins. The spread moved a bit more than 51% as much as did S&P. In what way was there less risk? Because the short YX position acted as a hedge against a sudden crash in S&P. There are a lot of S&P traders whose fortunes would have been "saved" had they been spread SP/YX in the debacle of October 1987. Do you realize that it is not difficult to benefit from stock index futures? Are you aware that many traders, who normally cannot afford the risk entailed in trading the S&P 500 from a daily chart, could more easily trade it by employing a spread? It is commonly known when the broader market is faring better or worse than the blue chip S&P 500. Usually, that particular condition will last over a period of months.
102
Chapter 11 Conversions
There are times when it becomes desirable to convert a spread trade into an outright futures trade. This is done by dropping one leg of the spread . What are the conditions under which this might be done? Let's say that two sides of a spread had been moving sideways, the long futures s.ide with a slightly upward bias and the short futures side with a slightly do~ward bIas. In such a case, the spread itself would be trending upward and hopefully It would be widening sufficiently to show a profit to the spread trader. Then suppose that one or the other sides of the s~read began to tren~ in the futures. It might become desirable to abandon the spread m favor of the trendmg futures. The series of charts that follow show just such a situation in the currencies. The trade revolves around being long September Swiss Francs and short September Japanese Yen. The two markets were drifting sidewa~s, but ~e ~wiss Franc prices were moving consistently away from Japanese Yen pnces, Wldenmg the spread between the two.
103.
SFU/JYU -2825. -2188. -2175. -2258. -2325. -2488. -2475. -2558. -2&25. -2788. -2775. -2858. -2925. -3888. -3875. -3158. -3225. -3388. -3375. -3458. -3525. -3&89. -3&75. -3759. ........................... " .. ",11111111111111111.11I1111111I11I1111111111111111 l1ay Jun Jui Aug
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The spread was steadily making money until JUly when it began to widen markedly. The question is, would it -have been better to stay in the spread, or to make a conversion to an outright futures position by dropping one side of the spread? Let's look at the two futures contracts during the same period as the one shown on the spread chart above.
104
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102.8(
Up until the first Friday in July, the spread had been making money as the Swiss Franc slowly but persistently gained by narrowing the spread between Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen prices. It did so by stubbornly moving sideways and slightly up, while the Japanese Yen began to gradually drift down. Do you see that, beginning the first Friday in July, the Japanese Yen broke downward out of its sideways pattern while the Swiss Franc continued to move sideways until the middle of the second Thursday in August? Dropping the long Swiss Franc leg of the trade beginning with the first Friday in July would have resulted in substantially greater profits than holding on to the spread. Let's look at the numbers. On the first Friday in July, the SFU/JYU spread stood at negative 2969. By the last day shown on the spread chart, the spread had narrowed to negative 2122 for a gain on the spread of 847 points, or $10,587.50. Dropping the long Swiss Franc on the first Friday in July and retaining a short outright futures position in the Japanese Yen would have yielded a result as follows: The Japanese Yen closed at a price of 11652 on the first Friday in July. It closed at 10269 on the second Thursday in August. A short futures position in the Yen would have gained 1,383 points, or $17,287.50.
In Appendix A I show you my entry patterns for outright futures. You will be able to see why it would have been appropriate to drop the long Swiss Franc and be short the Japanese Yen. In this particular instance it worked out well to have dropped the long Swiss Franc, because the Japanese Yen moved down rapidly without a lot of chopping up and down and wild volatility. The transition from the spread to an outright futures position would have been relatively easy. At times, this is not so. Sometimes it is far better to stay with the spread than to give up the advantages of Iow margins, comparatively low volatility, and lower risk. I'll give you an example of what I mean just ahead.
106
On the second Wednesday in July, the spread line between Long November Soybeans and short September Soybeans reached bottom. From there, it began to move up, until the first Thursday in August when the spread line began to move up more sharply.
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The question is, would it have paid to drop the short September Soybeans and remain long November Soybeans in an outright futures position? A quick look at the Soybeans chart will give us an answer.
107.
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The chart for November Soybeans is shown above. September Soybeans were virtually identical in appearance. Would you have been willing to jump from the safety of the nicely trending spread into the chaos of the outright futures chart? Only you can decide that. My preference would be to stay with the spread. A futures trade can be mercilessly whipsawed in a market that is chopping sideways as are Soybeans pictured above. Volatility is high and the market has no direction, while the spread is trending nicely. The risk in the outright futures is far greater than the risk in the spread. Profits for the spread will probably be less than in the futures, but not necessarily so. The outright futures trade may turn out to be a loser ifthe trade is whipsawed.
108
There is one additional conyersion type trade that I want to show you before we move on to the next chapter. It involves the situation in which you are in a spread trade and the spread trendline goes flat. If, at that time, the futures are trending, you may want to convert the spread to an outright futures trade. Here is a picture of that happening in a spread trade, WZ/WU.
The sprei trended.
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ended.
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From the third Friday in March until the third Friday in April, the spread line trended upward. The spread line then began to go sideways. What were the futures doing at this time?
109.
They were beginning to trend!
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Would you agree that in this instance, it would have paid to drop the short September Wheat and remain long December Wheat? The futures trended strongly, while the spread went nowhere until late in June. At that time, the spread would have turned against the position,long December Wheat and short September Wheat.
110
Chapter 12
Using Spreads to Reduce Volatility
One of the greatest threats to a futures trader can be price volatility in the futures market. Whereas an options trader can thrive on futures volatility, futures volatility materially increases the risk to any outright futures position. That is not to say that volatility in and of itself is a bad thing. It is either good or bad depending upon your position and the way you trade. Tons of money have been made by trading short term volatility along a spread line. Yes, spreads themselves can become very volatile. This can happen even when the futures themselves are not particularly volatile. A market can become extremely volatile almost instantly. Who can forget being long the S&P 500 when it crashed in 1987? How many of those traders are still around? Who can forget being short grains when the nuclear reactor at Chemobyl experienced a melt-down? Believe me, many a trader's account melted down right along with the plant at Chemobyl. Prices for grains and other foodstuffs become extremely volatile during droughts, floods, or pestilence. Prices of Gold, Silver, or other metals become volatile during worker strikes, threatened strikes, political instability, threats of war, etc. In like manner, Crude Oil and other petroleum based products can literally go wild before and after OPEC meeting, API reports, Middle Eastern disruptions, etc.
111.
Government reports of all kinds or speeches by dignitaries and government officials can set off wild price gyrations in the currency and financial markets. Extremes of volatility are increasing in both size and number. This is due to a major change in the composition of the markets. The markets now play host to large institutional traders, increasing amounts of managed money, and huge funds and pools. These very large market .participants attempt to place large numbers of contracts into a market in their attempts to put on a position. Since most of them use similar models and mechanical systems, they tend to get trading signals at virtually the same time. There are only a few measurable factors with regard to price. You can ascertain the open, high, low, and close. No matter how you analyze these four factors, there is bound to be correlation among the various analyses, and trading signals are bound to be similar among those who use them. When a buy signal is issued on one model, it is bound to be issued on other similar models. This causes a mad rush to get long the market. The volume of buying increases dramatically, and prices begin to rise. In fact, they may explode. By the time most of the funds, pools, and institutional traders have put on a position, there is precious little left to buy. When the overwhelming majority of orders are buy orders, a market is precariously close to a collapse. The reverse is true when a sell signal is issued by the various correlated models. Everyone is trying to sell at the same time. When there are too many sellers in the market, the market is liable to collapse or turn into a huge chopping Trading Range. Trading Ranges are extremely difficult for most traders to trade. And so it goes. The markets have become more volatile than at any other time in my many years of trading, perhaps more volatile than at any other time in history. There are only two ways I know to take away the effects of price volatility at times when they are not wanted. One way is with options, which has been adequately covered in my manual and course Trading Optures and Futions, and has no place in this work. The other way to take the sting out of volatility is with futures spreads. We've already discussed this somewhat in previous chapters.
112
Now, let's take some specific examples and work them ~ough S? you can see to what extent spreading is effective as a technique for reducmg volatIh~. There are a number of situations in which this technique can be used. Can you think of any? In the first instance of using a spread to reduce the effects of volatility, I will be showing you how to enter a wildly volatile marke~ via a spre~d. For whatever reasons one might have for entering such a market, this method WIll suffice.
Here is a blow-off top in December Corn. CZ 30.00(
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Let's .assume that when you-saw the top being put in place in late in June, you were suffiCIently as~te to realize there would probably be a second run to a top due to the fact that ~IS ~st top was created by major profit taking by professionals. Your plan IS to :--"mt un~II a second top is attempted or actually made, and then to short the market ~th outn~t futures contracts. This type of trade typically occurs in midsummer ill the graIn markets, and it occurs in many years.
114
You decide to look at the spread between September Corn and December Corn.
125 8 112 1 188 8 87 1 75 8 62 1 58 8 37 1 Z5
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Apr
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Jun
Jul
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You note that at the time you want to enter, the spread line for long September Corn and short December Corn is rising, although subsequently the spread actually made money if held merely as a spread. The tremendous amount of volatility as Corn made a top has been virtually neutralized. You would then be in position to either hold onto the spread, or drop the long September Corn and remain short December Corn, more or less at your leisure. Now let's look at another situation.
Suppose you were short a market, and suddenly the market moved and locked limit up against you. Can a spread help in that situation? One advantage in spread trading is the ability to extricate oneself from such a situation by offsetting the troubled trade using a distant back month. The reason this can work is that when you go out far enough, you are dealing with a different crop or market situation, one that is not yet affected by the conditions extant in the market that is making the limit move. This situation is true in many of the grains and foodstuffs such as sugar, coffee, cocoa, and the meats. Conversely, if for some reason a trader is involved in the use of a back month for his outright futures trade, he may be able to offset by using a month that is closer to the front month, or even the front month itself. Just such a situation occurred in July Coffee futures, on a day in which prices for December Coffee futures moved limit up, and remained locked limit the entire day. Prices then proceeded to open locked limit on numerous additional days. Prices locked limit a sufficient number of days to have wiped out most trading accounts. Had you been short December Coffee futures or short December Coffee Call options, the situation was sufficiently desperate and traumatic to cause you to flail around in an attempt to extricate yourself from this situation. As mentioned, one solution would have been to try to offset in a far distant month. However, far distant months in Coffee are sufficiently illiquid that execution of such a trade may not have been possible without having to incur an unusually large amount of slippage. My understanding is that in this case the nearest back month that did not also make a limit move was late into the following year. Coffee futures that far out trade quite thinly if at all, but if they did trade, it might have been possible to trade in such a month and thereby be saved from almost certain disaster. A better solution turned out to be an offset in September Coffee futures. I've included a weekly Coffee futures chart on the following page. Keeping in mind that you are looking at a weekly chart, can you see the enormous explosion that took place in Coffee prices? Many a trading account containing a short position in Coffee futures or Call options was wiped out in this move.
116
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In light of the fact that such situations can and do occur when trading futures, it is imperative for survival to plan for such continge?cies. Plans. must be ade before disaster occurs. Prior to entering a short trade m Coffee, trIal spread lmes should have been examined in various other months in order to ascertain where a line of de-
rr:
fense might have been set up.
If a trader is serious about this business, he will plan his trades so that he always has some sort of fall-back situation. If such a retreat is not available, then a trader IS most unwise to entertain any position at all in the futures. In case you're wondering how the daily chart for futures in December and September Coffee appeared, I've included them on the next page.
117.
T
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24&.99 249.99 234.99 22B.99 222.99 21&.99 219.911 2114.1111 19B.1I1I 192.911 lB&.1I11 lBII.1I1I 174.119 l&B.1I1I 1&2.1111 15&.1111 1511.1111 144.1111 13B.1I1I 132.99 12&.1111 1211.911 114.911 19B.BII
December Coffee making 14 limit days, U of them locked limit.
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September Coffee was trading during the days ~en December Coffee was locked limit.
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118
Sep'
Chapter 13
Trading Spreads Using Technical Indicators
Not all traders enjoy trading simply based on chart patterns. In my many years of trading, I have come to the conclusion that not all traders can see the formations I use in my own trading. Additionally, some technical indicators are able to help you see forces in the market that are unlikely to be clear without some sort of visual aid.
In the remainder of this chapter, I'm going to show you a technical indicator I have found useful in trading spreads whether they be seasonal or non-seasonal in nature. The study that has evolved into what are now called "Bollinger" Bands is one that has proved to be most helpful in trading spreads. Bollinger Bands, when set with a 20-Bar simple moving average of the close and channel lines at two standard deviations, have the unique quality of containing approximately 95% of the price action for a spread. Since spread lines generally are drawn from close to close, one can expect that 95% of the spread line will be contained within the channel. This ability of Bollinger Bands to contain most of the price action makes them exceptionally valuable as a measure of volatility. The wider the band width, the more volatile is the underlying price action. The narrower the band width, the less volatile is the underlying price action. Bollinger Bands are extremely sensitive to large moves, which gives them additional value. The bands are quick to react to price development. With these features in mind. let's look at a few spread charts containing Bollinger Bands to see how they can work to help in the trading of spreads. 119.
Upper BB_
19.000 18.000 17.000 16.000 15.000 14.000 13.000 12,000 11.000 10.000 WZIWU 9,0000 8,0000 7,0000 6.0000 5.0000 '1.0000 3.0000 2,0000 1.0000 .0000 -1.0000 -2,0000 -3.0000 -'1.0000
j
...........F..e..b·· ........................... , .... " ..... , .. ,"",.",.,",",,,""" Mar Apr May
111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111,1 Jun
Jul
In the chart above, WZIWU, we see that the Bollinger Bands remained fairly constant during most of the life of the spread. Spread volatility was quite moderate. During May and until the third week in June, spread volatility began to increase due to uneasiness about the supply of Wheat. Did you notice that the increase in volatility was reflected by a widening of the bands during that period? Finally, when a shortage of Wheat became fully realized, September Wheat prices shot up as buyers wanted all they could get now, fearing the shortage in Wheat would drive prices even higher. The grab for September Wheat caused the spread to invert and plunge downward. Notice the action of the Bollinger Bands in how quickly they responded to both price development and volatility. Do you see that the distance between the upper and lower bands became quite great? That condition is indicative of extremely high volatility.
120
You might be interested in seeing the September Wheat chart during this same period of time.
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May
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'183.00 '176.00 '169.00 '162,00 '155.00 '1'18.00 '1'11.00 '13'1.00 427.00 420.00 413.00 '106.00 399,00 392.00 385.00 378.00 371.00 364.00 357.00 350.00 3'13.00 33&,00 329.00 322.00
u
Here you can see that during the time December Wheat was trending upwru:d slightly faster than September Wheat, September was also in an uptrend. Then ill late June, September outpaced December which r.e~ulted in a do:vntu~ of the spread line. Notice that in this case the futures volatlhty was almost Ide~tl~al to the spread volatility from late June to the l~st bar sho~ on the chart. This IS not always the case, and it certainly wasn't pnor to and dunng ~ost ?fthe month of May. A close look at the bands will indicate that they were qwte different m the futures from those of the spread. Bollinger Bands have other characteristics th~t make them useful. Whe~ ~e. u~per band begins to curve upward and the spread Ime hugs the upper band, this IS mdicative of a very strong move to the upside.
121
Conversely, when the lower band turns downward and the spread line hugs the lower band, it is indicative of a very strong move to the downside.
-ZB.BBB -3B.BBB -4B.BBB -SB.BBB -oB.BBB -7B.BBB -BB.BBB -9B.BBB -lBB.BB -l1B.BB -lZB.00 -13B.BB -14B.BB -lSB.BB -lIiB.BB -17B.BB -lBB.BB -19B.BB -ZBB.BB -ZlB.BB -ZZB.BB -230.0B -240.BB -ZS0.BB
Prices turn down, exceed the lower band and then hug ~_ _-\--~ the lower band.
····F-eh
··········i1~r····
....... ,.,., ......... ,.... " ..... ,.. "."."",,1111111,1111,1111111111111111111,1111111111111 Apr
May
Jun
Ju I
Auy
The chart above shows the spread long August Gold and short September Silver. Do ~ou see that at first the spread was narrow, indicative of low volatility? Prior to making a strong downward move, spread volatility increased, reflected in the widening of the bands. At the end of March, the spread line dropped sharply below the lo~er band and remained outside the lower band for four days. From then on, pnces tended to hug the lower band by consistently remaining in the channel that existed between the moving average and the lower band.
122
A Coffee spread, long September and short December, gives us a picture of how prices can exceed the upper band and remain that way for eight trading days.
4.400B 4.BBBB 3.IiBOO 3.ZBBB Z.BBBB Z.4BBB Z.BBOO 1.6009
The spread line broke through the upper band and remained at or outside the upper band for eight days.
l.ZBBB .BBBB .4BBB .BBBB -B.4BBB -El.BBBB -l.ZBBB -1.IiBBB -Z.BBBB -Z.4BBB -Z.BBBB -3.ZBBB -3.IiBBB -4.BBBB -4.4BBB -4.BBBB
.,', ....... ,... ,.,',", .... ",., ... ,.. "',",.,,, .. ,,'.,.".,"01",1"".""""1"",,1111,,,11,,111,1111111111111111111111111111111 Feh
Mar
'Apr
May
Jun
Jul
For the spread line to remain outside the upper band for a period of eight days requires a mighty strong move in the spread differential. Such a move is the equivalent of an outright futures trade in which futures prices begin to move almost straight up. Such a move is often indicative of a blow-off, and is generally followed by either a strongly chopping Trading Range, or a complete turnabout in the price action. Interestingly, this particular spread had a seasonal tendency to move in favor of December Coffee rather than September Coffee futures just three days before the beginning of the spread widening in favor of September Coffee. Anyone blindly following an optirnized entry date would have sustained a considerable drawdown for almost a month, until the spread finally turned over in favor of December Coffee. I've shown how that trade developed on the chart on the next page.
123
The seasonal tendency takes hold here.
--....,c;,
The move up was counter-seasonal.
KCZlKCU
4.4000 4.BBBB 3.6BB0 3.2BBB 2.BBBB 2.4BB0 2.B0B0 1. 60BB 1.2BBB .BBBB .4BBB .B0BB -B.40B0 -0.B0B0 -1.2000 -1.6B00 -2.B00B -2.4BBB -2.BBBB -3.2BB0 -3.6BBB -4.BBBB -4.40BB -4.80B0
"""", .. """""""",11""""".,."",1"",1,"."."."""""11"",,,.,111,1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
As you can see, the seasonal tendency for December Coffee to outpace September finally to.ok hold, ~d the spread turned in favor of December. Immediately followmg the highest pomt ofKCUIKCZ, the spreadline turned sharply down. It then proceeded to break through the lower band. Subsequent to what is shown above the spr~ad ~ine contin~ed. down~ard, hugging the band, for an additional five da;s at whlch tlme the optrrrnzed eXlt date occurred. The turn in the spread line came too la~e for my s~asonal window. Had it not, I would have coupled my 1-2-3 formation Wlth th~ Bollmger Bands to give me an entry signal. But supposing I wanted to take an outnght non-seasonal spread trade based upon an expected reversal after the blowoff? Let's see how that would have worked. I'm going to turn the chart over so that it shows KCZIKCU.
124
Pattern exit.
4.8000 4.40BB 4.BB00 3.60B0 3.20B0 2.8BBB 2.41300 2.13000 1.6131313 1.2000 .80013 .4131313 .00130 -0.413130 -B.8B0B -1.213130 -1.60130 -2.13131313 -2.40013 -2.81300 -3.2131313 -3.6000 -4.131300 -4.4131313
The optimize d entry date is the same as the pattern entry date.
Pattern entry. ,"""""',.".,',.,',.,"",",.,', ..... "",'.",'""."., .. """""11""",,,111,1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
The chart shows what turned out to be bad entry on the optimized entry date. The trade is exited with a loss. Following the loss, there is a pattern reversal. The reversal and breakout to new lows on the spread line give an opportunity for an entry into the spread KCUIKCZ. The exit from KCUIKCZ comes in conjunction with the entry into KCZIKCU. Such an entry can be anticipated following the very strong move in KCU as it counter-seasonally pulled away from KCZ. However, supposing you wanted to make an entry into this trade based solely upon technical indicators? Could that be done? Is there any specific indicator that might work well in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands? In the chapter that follows, we will explore the attributes of Bollinger bands. Fol-
lowing that we will examine Welles Wilder's RSI indicator in conjunction with Bollinger Bands. John Bollinger likes to use a 9 bar RSI together with the bands. Personally, I use both a 14 and a 9 bar RSI. Perhaps the two together, RSI and BB's, will provide just what you are looking for if you are a trader who prefers technical studies in your trading. 125
126
Chapter 14 Technical Filtering for Spreads
Throughout most of my trading life, my most important tool has been the fonnations on the price chart, insofar as what I need to see. Yet there are times when I do use technical indicators to assist me in seeing things that are not easily discerned just by looking at a chart. One of the things I am unable to visualize is the location of two standard deviations. Another is the whereabouts of the mean deviation of a moving average of typical prices. Technical indicators are able to graphically display certain market properties not otherwise easily seen. If you find charts confusing, then you may need help from an indicator. If you do use indicators, keep them simple and make sure you use no more than two, and that they present different aspects of the market. For example, Bollinger Bands and the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) are a good combination. Keltner Channel or most any channel method combined with anyone of a number of momentum oscillators is usually acceptable. Why? Because channeling usually presents you with a measure of volatility as well as other enhancements. You can see the channel change width, indicating more volatility or less volatility. All the oscillators with which I am familiar measure momentum, and to some extent, "overboughtloversold." How much is overbought? When is a market oversold? Who is to say? A market can be overbought or oversold for months, and that's why I really dislike those tenns. When dealing with indicators, please realize that there are few things in the markets that are measurable. Moving averages of the open, high, low, close, or some combination thereof are the basis for most oscillators. This means that all oscillators are more or less correlated. An interesting study is called "On Balance Volume" (OBV). Here the designer coupled volume with a momentum oscillator. OBV is useful in detecting signs of 127.
accumulation or distribution. The indicator is created by taking a bar's volume and adding it to a cumulative sum of the volume when the closing price is higher than the close of the previous bar. The volume is subtracted from the sum when the closing price is lower than the previous bar's close. OBV and a channel make a good combination that you might want to try. The reaso~ for c?mbining an os~illator with a channel is to gain differing perspectives of the pnce actIOn. ConfinnatIOns of the two generally offer a strong entry or exit signal. However, remember that indicators are always presenting you with history. They are always late. They cannot possibly indicate that which has not yet taken place, nor can they ever be fully current. They cannot register their information until after prices are settled. The closest I have ever come to making a technical indicator reflect what is current was when I created a pressure indicator based on the open rather than the close. The open is the most current fact available during any trading session. Why? Becau~e the high, low, and close cannot be officially known until they occur, after tradmg has stopped. But the open is already history at the time when results from indicators based upon the high, low, or close have not yet been detennined. :x'e'll be looking a~ a number of combinations to see how they may help in the tradmg of spreads. FIrst, we'll take a look at the combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands as applied to spread trading. We'll begin with a more thorough explanation of the assets offered by Bollinger Bands. Then we'll look at those offered by the RSI. After that, we'll see how to use them together to trade spreads.
Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands offer not only the visual aid of a simple moving average, but they also offer a continuing view of volatility as expressed through a moving average of standard deviation. Bollinger bands are sensitive to extremes of deviation. The resul~ is that the bands are quick to register volatile or non-volatile movement in price actIOn. The distance between the bands will quickly widen once a large movement in price IS underway. Conversely, the band width will quickly collapse once the market becomes less volatile and reaches a level of relative equilibrium. The number of bars 128
in the moving average (20) represents the intermediate trend. I have found that this adapts best to a daily chart of the spread line. When using Bollinger Bands, I choose to use two standard deviations, because at that setting the bands contain 95+% of the spread line. Any movement outside the bands beckons the trader to take notice. It is movement in price that causes the spread line to make extremes. The most noteworthy movements of the spread line occur when the spread line comes close to or exceeds the bands. Neither Bollinger Bands nor other bands give entry and exit signals. They merely reflect whether the spread line is wider or narrower relative to where it has previously been. Bollinger Bands as well as other bands are best used in conjunction with a particular chart pattern, or with an oscillator that measures a different factor of the market action. For instance, I would not use Bollinger Bands together with Commodity Channel Index (CCI). Bollinger Bands measure standard deviation of price and CCI measures mean deviation of price. Used together, they are multicolinear. (How's that for a mouthful?) Here are some comments taken from John Bollinger's Capital Growth Letter, available from Bollinger Capital Management. 1. Sharp moves tend to occur after the bands tighten to the average (volatility lessens). The bond market and foreign currencies are good examples of this. 2. A move outside the bands calls for a continuation of the trend, not an end to it. Often, the first push of a major move wiJI carry prices outside of the bands. This is an indication of the relative strength of one side of the spread over the other. 3. A sharp move outside the bands followed by an immediate retracement of that move is a sign of exhaustion. 4. Bottoms (tops) made outside the bands followed by bottoms (tops) made inside the bands
s.
call for a reversal in trend. The bands can help in diagnosing double tops and bottoms, especially when the second part of the top (bottom) is higher (lower) than the first and lower (higher) in relation to
the bands. 6. The average should give support (resistance) during bull (bear) moves. 7. A move originating at one band tends to go to the other band. This is useful for proj ecting price targets early on and provides revised targets as events unfold.
Now let's examine a few spreads in conjunction with the bands in order to see some of the features mentioned above at work. Please keep in mind that Bollinger Bands in and of themselves are insufficient for giving entry and exit signals. They must be coupled with either chart patterns or a technical indicator. 129
~harp moves tend to occur after the bands tighten to the average (volatil-
Ity lessens).
KCKlKCU
Bollinger Bands tighten. _ _ _ _....l...-_ _ _...J
"'D~~""'·"""··J~~"""""""',~~~,IIIIIIIIIII~IIIIIIIIIII,II,IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII",,,,."'."'""",,111 ar
Apr
130
May
13.999 12.999 11.999 19.999 9.9999 B.9999 7.9999 6.9999 5.9099 4.9099 3.9990 2.9999 1.0909 .0099 -1.9999 -2.9099 -3.9900 -4.9999 -5.9999 -6.9090 -7.9900 -B.9999 -9.9090 -19.909
A move outside the bands calls for a continuation of the trend, not an end to it. Often, the first push of a major move will carry prices outside of the bands. This is an indication of the relative strength of one side of the spread over the other. SlKIGCJ
21.999 20.250 19.599 IB.759 IB.900 17.259 16.599 15.759 15.999 14.259 13.599 12.759 12.999 11.250 19.590 9.7599 9.9090 B.2509 7.5909 6.7599 6.9999 5.2509 4.5909 3.7590 Dec
..... ,", .. ".,"',,111111111,1111111111111,111111111111111111111111111111,,111111111, ...... . Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
131
May
A sharp move outside the bands followed by an immediate retracement of that move is a sign of exhaustion. W5Z1S5X
-41'1.000 -50.000 -60.000 -70.000 -80.000 -90.000 -100.00 -110.00 -120.00 -130.00 -140.00 -150.00 -160.00 -170.00 -180.00 -190.00 -200.00 -210.00 -220.00 -230.00 -240.00 -250.00 -260.00 -270.00
A sharp move outside the band followed by a major retracement resulted in exhaustion.
....... " ....• ,.. , .... ,.... " .. ,.... ",,, .. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,"ilIIIIIIII,"11I111111I1I1111111111I1111111111111111111111I11111111111111111 Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Auy
Sep
I might add based on my own observations, the retracement must be substantial for this to be true.
132
Bottoms (tops) made outside the bands followed by bottoms (tops) made inside the bands call for a reversal in trend. LCVILCG
A top made outside the band followed by a top inside the band, indicates a possible
re~nd[4
•••.••.•.•• ,",,","" ",.,,,", ",,, I""""", "Ill".", ,,"" 'J"" 11"" III 11",,, "J" "1' d01 h111111 tI Mar Apr May un u
133
~ Iyl l l l l l l l \I~~Ip
h
.6000 . 40B0 . 20B0 .0000 -0.20B0 -0.4000 -1'1.6000 -0.80B0 -1.B000 -1.2000 -1. 40B0 -1.6000 -1.8000 -2.0000 -2.2000 -2.4000 -2.6000 -2.8000 -3.0000 -3.2000 -3.4000 -3.6000 -3.8000 -4.0000
The bands can help in diagnosing double tops and bottoms, especially when the second part of the top (bottom) is higher (lower) than the first and lower (higher) in relation to the bands. LCVILHV
24.800 24.400 24.000 23.600 23.200 22.B00 22.400 22.000 21.600 21.200 20.800 20.400 20.000 19.600 19.200 lB.800 18.400 18.000 17.600 17.200 16.800 16.400 16.000 15.600
Triple tops, none making it above the band line.
............ ".,"""""" .. ,,,'' ,,',,,'' ' ' ' ' 11,,'' ' ' ' ,,'' '11'1111'1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 I Mar
Apr
May_
Jun
Ju 1
Auy
Sep
Double tops and bottoms of the kind described above are not generally encountered when trading spreads. I looked through dozens of charts to find the one shown above. Some chartists would have labeled this a double top.
134
The moving average should give support (resistance) during bull (bear) moves. TYMfUSM
~support at the moving average.
135.
112.50 111.75 111.00 11£1.25 109.50 10B.75 10B.00 107.25 106.50 105.75 105.00 104.25 103.50 102.75 102.00 101.25 100.50 99.750 99.000 9B.250 97.500 96.750 96.000 95.250
A move originating at one band tends to go to the other band. This is useful for projecting price targets early on and provides revised targets as events unfold. I suspect that this would better be restated as: A move originating at one band tends to go towards the other band. This is useful for early projection of spread differentral targets and provides for revised targets as events unfold. SFUIBPU -0.6920 -0.696B -0.700B -0.7040 -0.70BB -0.712B -B.7160 -0.720B -0.7240 -0.72B0 -0.732B -0.736B -0.7400 -0.744B -0.74B0 -0.7520 -0.756B -13.761313 -0.76413 -0.76B0 -13.77213 -0.776B -0.7BBB -E1.7B4E1
Prices originating at one band tend to move towards the other band.
Mar
............ "",,1111111111111111,1111111111111111111II111111I1I111111111111111
Jun
Jul
Aug
Now let's take a look at RSI and see what it has to offer.
136
Sep
RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX
9barRSlof . 92BB .915B .91BB .9B5B .9BBB .B95B .B90B .BB5B .BBBB .B75B .B70B .B6S0 .B6BB .B55B .B50B .B450 .B40B .B35B .B30B .B250 . BZBB .B15B .B10B .BBSB
Swiss Franc prices.
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Much has been written about RSI. There are many who teach it and are expert at using and interpreting it. To the best of my knowledge, Welles Wilder is the originator of RSI, and I present it here because John Bollinger has had good results using it in combination with Bollinger Bands. For more in-depth information about RSI, I suggest reading Wilder's book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, available from most book distributors . RSI presents a graphical view of a ratio that looks at the net change in price taking place during each time period for which it is invoked. The average net amount that price has moved up during that time is measured against the average net amount that price has moved down. Therefore, RSI purports to measure two things, price momentum and the (infamous) overboughtloversold condition of a market. In measuring overboughtloversold, it is no better (or worse) than any other indicator used to measure this somewhat fictitious condition of a market. 137 .
9 barRSI of Swiss Franc prices.
May
Jun
Jul
f'lug
.9Z00 .9150 .9100 .9050 .9008 .8958 .8988 .8858 .8888 .8750 .8700 . 8658 .8608 .8550 .8588 .8450 .B400 .8358 .8300 .8Z50 .8Z88 .8150 .8180 .8858
Sep
Oct
Another use for RSI is that of offering a visualization of divergence from its peaks and troughs relative to the highs (peaks) and lows (troughs) in actual futures prices. RSI is plotted over horizontal grid lines indicating the 20%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 80% levels of an absolute vertical scale that can go no higher than 100 or lower than zero. Interpretations ofRSI It is said that when markets are choppy and generally moving sideways, you should consider being a buyer when prices diverge lower and RSI is rising, and consider being a seller when prices diverge higher and RSI is falling. It is also said that when markets are trending, you should consider being a buyer when RSI crosses above the 50% RSI grid line, and consider being a seller when RSI crosses below the 50% RSI grid line. 138
Another interpretation of how to use a 14 bar RSr states that when a market is choppy and moving sideways consider selling when the RSr movement is above 70% (overbought), and consider buying when the RSI movement is below 30% (oversold). The percentages are increased to 80% and 20% when using a 9 bar RSI. When a market is trending and a 14 bar RSI is being used, the 80% level becomes the overbought indicator and the 20% level becomes the oversold indicator. I have underlined the word consider because too many traders blindly and mechanically trade the RSI according to the methods indicated above. Unfortunately, such trading is done to their own financial destruction . It is important to recognize the strengths and weaknesses ofRSI in order to properly use it. Among its strengths are the fact that it smoothes distortions that would occu: ~s old prices are dropped off and new prices added into the fonnula: In the op~on of some, a strength is found in the constant vertical scale. By fixing the amplItude ~f the scale from zero to 100, RSr provides a constant band for purposes of companson. Other oscillators do not use a fixed scale and therefore make it possible to compare an extreme move relative to a previous extreme move. The weaknesses ofRSI are identical with its strengths. How much smoothing is the correct amount? Should you use 14 bars of smoothing, 9 bars of smoothing, or some other number? Should you change the smoothing factor if prices begin to trend? Should you change the smoothing factor if prices cease trending? Obviously, a 9 bar RSI, at times, is going to give substantially different signals than a 14 bar RSI. You'll have to decide for yourself when to use 9, 14, or some other value for RSI. Is a constant vertical scale the best way to view the net changes in price? There are those who would argue that a variable scale w@uld be better. A constant scale causes an oscillator to scrunch up and become meaningless in a trending market. So called overboughtJoversold readings become virtually worthless.
Since our purpose here is not to argue the merits and inadequacies .of RSI, let's now view some RSI charts in order to show you the various interpretatIOns and methods 139·
of trading with RSI. After that, we can view how it works best in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands for profitable trading in spreads.
140
When markets are choppy and generally moving sideways, you should consider being a buyer when prices diverge lower and RSI is rising, and consider being a seller when prices diverge higher and RSI is falling.
HOX/HUX -IUIB45 -B.BB&B -B.BB75 -B.BB9B -B.B1B5 -B.B12B -B.B135 -B.B15B -B.Bl&5 -B.B1BB -B.B195 -B.B21B -B.B225 -B.B24B -B.B255 -B.B27B -B.B2B5 -B.B3BB -B.B315 Prices -B.B33B -B.B345 diverKe -B.B3&B lower----.1 -B.B375 -B.B39B
with 9 bar RSI
BB----------------------------------------------------------------------
2B ___________________________________________________________________ _
May
Jun
RSI diverges higher resulting in a buy signaL_ Jui Aug Sep Oct
141
When a market is choppy and moving sideways, consider selling when the RSI movement is above 70% (overbought), and consider buying when the RSI movement is below 30% (oversold). The percentages are increased to 80% and 20% when using a 9 bar RSI.
USHlTYH with 14 bar
RSI
\
716 700 616 6B0 516 500 416 400 316 300 216 200 116 Hl0 16
o
-16 -100 -116 -200 -216 -3B0 -316
30- --------------------------------
----------------------------------
l:Buy
20 _____________________________________________________________________ _ May
Jun
Jul
Aug
142
Sep
Oct
When markets are trending, you should consider being a buyer when RSI crosses above the 50% RSI grid line, and consider being a seller when RSI crosses below the 50% RSI grid line. WZlCZ 195.BB 19B.BB 185.BB IBB.BB 175.BB 17B.BB 165.99 16B.BB 155.BB 15B.BB 145.9B HB.BB 135.9B 13B.9B 125.9B 1ZB.BB 115.9B llB.BB IB5.BB IBB.BB 95.BBB 9B.BB8 85.998 BB.BBI!
B0------------------------------------
--------------------------------
20____________________________________________________ -----------------Mar
Apr
/lay
Jun
Jui
143·
Aug
Scp
Oct
When a market is trending and a 14 bar RSI is being used, the 80% level becomes the overbought indicator and the 20% level becomes the oversold indicator. CLZlCLJ .4500 .4Z00 .3900 .3&00 .3399 .3099 .Z790 .Z490 .Z199 .1BOO .1509 .lZ00 .9999 .9&00 .IB90 .9999 -9.931111 -11.11&011 -0.119110 -9.1Z09 -11.15011 -1I.1BOII -1I.Zl00 -0.Z409
144
Now that we've seen some examples of how people interpret and use RSI signals, let's combine these signals with optimized entry dates, the 20-day window, and Bollinger Bands in order to see how technical indicators can work for spread trading.
145
146
Chapter 15
Seasonal Spread Trading with Bollinger Bands and
RSI
A trade with which I've been familiar for many years is to get long October Live Cattle and short the following February's Live Cattle around the third week in June. Moore's Research Report lists the optimized entry date for the year shown at June 22. This means the window for this trade opened on June 8. The chart below begills with the way the chart looked on that date. LCVILCG with 20 bar BB
-8.6888 -8.7588
.t/8 =~: ~~::
On June 8, we see that the market is clearly trendinl: with prices remaining in the upper portion of the channel. However. BB does not in and of itself eive a buy sil:Dai. We need to mter this trade with RSI to get a confinning ently signal.
147
-1.21188 -1.35118 -1.5888 -1.651111 -1.BIIIIII -1. 95B8 -2.18118 -2.25118 -2.4D88 -2.5588 -2.78611 -2.B5118 -3.88BB -3. 15BB -3.38811 -3.4588 -3.688B -3.7588 -3.98B8 -4.1151111
LCVILCG with 20 bar BB
On JWle 8, we see that the market is clearly trending with prices remaining in the upper portion of the channeL However BB does not in and of itself give a buy signal. We need to fllte~ this trade with RSI to get a COnImning entty signal.
-0.6000 -0.7500 -0.9000 ~/8 -1.0500 -1.2000 -1.3500 -1.5000 -1.6500 -1.8000 -1.9500 -2.1000 -2.2500 -2.4000 -2.5500 -2.7000 -2.8500 -3.0000 -3.1500 -3.3000 -3.4500 -3.6000 -3.7500 -3.9000 -4.05130
14 barRSI There is no cle ar cut buy signal from RSI to go along with the uptrend in the chart above. I would prefer to wait and see if a buy signal emerges within the next 20 days. ________________________________________________________________ --------------
____________________
13---------------------------------------------------------------------1'1 ______________________________________________________________________
Mar
Apr
May
148
Jun
-0.6000 -13 .7500 -13.901313 -1.0500 -1.213130 -1.3500 -1.50130 -1.6500 -1.80130 -1.95130 -2.1000 -2.2500 -2.4000 -2.55130 -2.7000 -2.851313 -3.1301313 -3.1500 -3.3131'11'1 -3.45130 -3.601'10 -3.751313 -3.91'11'10 -4.1351'10
A few days later, with the Bollinger Bands holding fairly steady, prices begin a retracement falling below the moving average line and reaching across to the lower BB line. RSI crosses below the 50% line. It is now June 15. If prices were to begin moving up so that RSI moves above its 50% line, I would want to enter the trade LCVILCG. LCVILCG with 20 bar BB
I would be tempted to take a bounce ofl'the lower BB if RSI also COnIums and prices are still within the time window.
-0.61'100 -13.751'11'1 -1'1.90130 -1.05130 -1.2000 -1.3500 -1.50130 -1.6500 -1.8000 -1.9500 ..,Y15-2.1001'1 -2.25130 -2."101'11'1 -2.5500 -2.7000 -2.8501'1 -3.01300 -3.1500 -3.3000 -3.4500 -3.6000 -3.7500 -3.9000 -"1.0500
14 barRSI If RSI crosses above the 50% line I would be tempted to enter the seasonal trade LCVILCG.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
30---------------------------------------------------------------------20 ____________________________________________________ ------------------
Mar
A
I'
Ma
149-
Jun
On the opposite page we see an actual entry signal. Do you see that RSI has crossed the 50% line, and prices themselves are a hair above the simple moving average line of the Bollinger Bands? It would be quite easy to make a mechanical entry here, but it is much better to enter based upon an understanding of what these indicators are telling us. The entry signal was given on the 20th and again on the 22nd, the optimized entry date. The normal expectation for a trend is that it will continue. Are the indicators pointing to a continuation of the trend? Let's see. RSI is a momentum indicator. If prices were to cause this indicator to again rise above the 50% line, what do you think it would mean? In my opinion, this would be a clear indication of a reversal in the short term momentum and possibly a continuation of the longer term trend momentum. Bollinger Bands give us a picture of volatility. Certainly there has been little change in the volatility depicted by the bands. The distance between them has remained fairly constant. If volatility were to drop off, might we not suspect that the move is weakening and that prices are ready to move sideways and not continue to trend upward? The 20 bar simple moving average of the Bollinger Bands is a trend indicator. This moving average is usually based on the close although you may want to base it upon the open or even an average daily price. Prices have moved just above the simple moving average. This means they now reside in the upper channel. This too is indicative of a continuation of the trend. It is the combination of th~se technical factors in conjunction with the fact that we are in the seasonal window that make this a strong entry signal. At the very least, I would be willing to make an attempt. The fairly high reliability of the optimized entry date is a contributing factor. That date is only two days in the future.
How does one enter such a trade? If able to monitor the market intraday, I suggest that a software alert can be set to signal the event of RSI crossing the 50% line, prices moving above the simple moving average, or both. If unable to monitor the market intraday, an entry differential can be exactly or approximately (depending upon available tools) ascertained based upon the moving average. The order can then be phoned into a broker for execution should that price differential occur.
150
i
-8.6888 -8.7588 -8.9990 -1.BSBB -1.2080 -1.3580 I20 -1.5880 -1.6590 -1.8088 -1.9580 -2.1090 -2.2590 -2.4000 -2.5580 -2.7000 -2.8500 -3.9900 -3.1590 -3.3080 -3.4500 -3.6000 -3.7500 -3.9080 -4.0588
---------------------------------- --------------------------
30------------------------------------------------ ----------
------------
20 ____________________________________________________ -----------------Apr
/ldy
Jun
151
Below, you can see the results of this trade. If entry was not made on the 20th, it most certainly was possible on the 22nd or 23rd.
natural support
817 optimize d exit date
"4....,,,.<::.---6120 and 6122 en1ries were ahnost identical.
818, RSI gives reversal sign
.BBBB -B.ISBB -B.3BBB -B.1SBB -B.6BBB -B.7SBB -B.9BBB -1. BSBB -1.2BBB -1.3SBB -1.SBBB -1.6SBB -1.BBBB -1.9SBB -2.IBBB -2.2SBB -2.1BBIl -2.SSBB -2.7BBB -2.SSBB -3.BBBB -3.ISBB -3.3BBB -3 ASBB
'11111111,1111111111111111,,111111111,1111111111111111'1I111111111111111111111 May
Ju 1
Jun
Aug
What about exiting from this trade? Certainly exit could have been made from the simplest technical indicator of them all, a trendline. My own preference is that of natural support (a chart formation), which gave the best exit in this case. Coincidentally, the optimized exiCdate also gave a profitable exit on the same day that exit could have been made via the trendline. The worst exit would have been that of a crossing of the Bollinger Band moving average or the crossing of the 50% line of the RSI. Both occurred on 8/8. I do not believe that using the same technical indicator for entry and exit necessarily makes any sense. However, this is exactly what most mechanical systems do. I also believe that is why most of them lose. By the time tl!e cumulative forces that generated the entry signal reverse, most of the profit, if any, is gone. All too often the result is a net loss for tl!e trade. 152
It is my firm belief that in order to maximize profits and minimize losses,. entries and exits should be considered in completely different ways. If you are gomg to enter trades with technical indicators, you should exit them using a chart pattern. In a trending market, this technique has given the best results over a period of many years. Let's look at one more seasonal spread trade using technical indicators before moving on to the next chapter. Buying next year's May Sugar #11 and selling this year's October Sugar #~ 1 is another high percentage seasonal spread that had worked 100% of the tune m a succession of 15 years. Both May and October contracts have good open interest, and ??th hav~ ~dequate volume. World Sugar is one of the most widely traded commoditIes and It IS traded well into the future as the commercials use vast quantities of it and have a need to hedge long term. The trade is typically entered in the last week of July, and the Moore Research Center listed this trade's optimized entry date as 24 July, with an optimized exit date of 4 September. Let's begin looking at this spread 10 days prior to 24 July. We will begin with 10 July, which is the opening of our seasonal window. We want to coordinate any signals from RSI together with the status of the Bollinger Bands. We want to keep in mind volatility, momentum, divergence, if ~y, and. the ~o-called overboughtloversold condition of price in the event the ~arket IS ~ov:ng.sldeways. These factors constitute the essence of trading spreads usmg technical mdlcators. In any event, we want to see clear cut signals from our indicators or we will not trade. SBKlSBV follows on the next page.
153
SBKtSBV The spread is not indicating steady volatility, not has it recently been trendinll. Recent volatility has been relatively !lreat. The band lines do not indicate an uptr nd in progress.
above the moving average is no indication of trend. However, it is indicative of momentum. Momentum alone is not sufficient for an ently at this time.
-11.11&1111 -11.1191111 -11.121111 7!IO -11.151111 +-1I.1BIIII -11.211111 -11.241111 -11.271111 -11.3111111 -11.331111 -11.3&1111 -11.391111 -11.421111 -11.451111 -1I.4BIIII
-11.511111 -11.541111 -1I.S7BII -II.&BIIII
-11.&31111 -11.&&1111 -1I.&9I1B
-11.721111 -B.7SIII1
Neither the 9 bar RSI above or the 14 bar RSI show any divergence from price. RS! is showine; momentum. It has crossed the 50% marker, but is well within the bounds of neutrality. It is moving sideways in a sideways market. 11----------------------------------------------------------------------
11______ -----------------------------------------------________________ _ Hay Jun Jui Apr
The 14-Bar RSI (not shown) is halfway between the 50% and 70% lines. Together, RSIand BB are indicative of a sideways market with prices bouncing from one extreme to the other. If anything, I would be tempted to short this spread on "overboueht" condition of the RSI.
154
On 7/13, after a brief one-day correction, prices rise sharply and penetrate the upper BB. Once allain we have upward momentum. However, look at the bands themselves. They they are not trending. The upper band is moving up and the lower band is moving up and .118811 . b thbd"d' -11l138li the l~r ~an~ is mo~g dawn. .The ~:mce ~tween e an s IS WI enmg. -11: l168li This IS mdicative of an mcrease m volatility. It IS not uncommon -11.l198li for prices to move rapidly from one band to the other when -11.12911 volatility increases. -11.15811 -11.111811 -11.211111 -11.24l1li -11.271111 -11.39911 -11.331111 -11.3&1111 -1I.39BII
Mter all, BB is a measure of volatility. As you can see, it is quick to pick up the fact that this market has become more volatile. But we still are in need of direction.
-11.42911 -11.45811 -11.48911 -11.511111 -11.541111 -11.571111 -11.&l1li11 -11.&31111 -1I.&6B1I
-11.&9911
The 14 bar RSI baraely confinns the momentum of the price move as set allainst the BB's. The indicator has not reached the "o.... rbouaht" level. However, the fact that price has penetrated the upper BB line may be indicative of a trend that will continue. At this point, it is better to wait. This is quite bften where the amateur trader is separated from the professional What appears to b. a major move in price is not really that much of a move.
B----------------------------------------------------------------------
B---------------------------------------------------------------------Apr
------------------------------------------------------Jui Jun Hay
The scale on which the chart is shown can be deceptive as to the magnitude of a move. This market has been moving sideways. The price scale will tend to magnify the size of the move. We still do ot have a clear indication of direction. Entry at this point carries more risk than I am willing to take.
155
SBKlSBV By 7118, prices have moved even higher. They have been outside the upper BB for several days. A pull-back here and then another advance would cause me to enter the spread. As yet we have no confinnation from the lower band that we are indeed trencting. All we really have is a sudden and definite increase in volatility. BB in and of itself is not sufficient for Jl.eneraUnJl. entry siltnals. We still have to filter through RSL
, I "
, "
"
, "
Apr
' "
, , "
, "
nay
.1131111 .11111111 -11.1131111 -1I.lIbllll -11.1191111 -11.121111 -11.151111 -1I.1BIIII -11.211111 -11.2'11111 -11.271111 -11.3111111 -11.331111 -1I.3bllll -11.391111 -11.'121111 -1l.'ISIlII -1l.'IBIlIl -1l.Slllll -1l.S'I1l1l -1l.S71l1l -Il.bllllll -1l.b31l1l -Il.bbllll
.IT the market begins to trend, this line will turn up
/ , "
~/l8
"
• "
, , ,
I , , , " , , " I I " I I , I , , " , , .1111111111
Jun
,"
Jul
I, ,II1
I
Not only do we have a CaiI\D'e oC the lower BB to turn in and upward, we also have no confirmation from the 14 bar RSI that there has been a real change in momen-
tum. In fact, while prices are makinll a new high, RSI is somewhat diverllent in that it is failing to make a new high. This could mean that temporarily, at least this move is running out DC steam. 1iI---------------------------------------------------------------------B----------
--------------------------------------------------------~7/l8
RSIis failing to conflml.
1iI---------------------------------------------------------------------1iI _____________________________________________________________________ _
Apr
nay
Jun
Jul
It remains to be seen if we have a real move here or not. We are still aCew days shy oCthe optimized entry date.
156
By 7124, prices relative to the BB have plunlled across and below the movinll average. This is not unusual in a sideways chopping market. Volatility remains high but steady. The lower BB has turned upward and now both bands are shawing an uptrend. Any crossover to the upside of the simple moving average, if confumed by RSI, would cause me to ent~ trade.
.Ilbllll .1I31l1i1 .1iI1l1iI1iI -1I.1iI31i11i1 -1iI.llblillil -1iI.1iI91i111 -1I.12111i1 -1iI.1SIiIII -1I.1BIiIIiI -1I.211i11i1 -1iI.2'11i11l -1iI.271i11i1 7124-1iI. 31l1l1i1 ... -1l.331i11i1 -1I.3blilll -1iI.391i111 -1iI.'I21i11i1 -1I.'ISIiIIiI -B.'IBBB -1I.Slli1li1 -1iI.S'IBII -1iI.S7BIiI -1iI.blillllil -1iI.b31i11i1
RSI, ..ruch never did confum the move in price, has naw gone well belawthe SOG/.line. I would now suspect that the divergence between price and the RSI has been oC real significance. Being patient with this trade has paid otT.
11----------------------------------------------------------------------
7124
11---------------------------------------------------------------------B_____________________________________________________ -----------------
nay
Jun
Jul
I'm not denying that some money could have been made by entering at the bee:inninll oC the time window based on price move alone, but such trading results in losses more often than not. Since 7124 is the optimized entry date, let's continue to monitor this trade for another 10 days.
157
At the time the 20 day window dosed, itwas obvious that prices had reversed and were in a large chopping Trading Range. The optimized date had utterly failed. Since we are trading here oniywith technicais, we have preduded rmding out ..my, fundamentally,,,,,, are seeing such a divergence with the past 15 years of success in this spread. As it turned out there was a presently perceived shortage of sugar, worldwide.' However, BB is not yet signaling a downtrend in the spread.
No trend is evident, only a lot o£Volatility.
.1299 .9999 .9&99 .9399 .9999 -9.9399 -9.9&99 -9.9999 -9.1299 -9.1599 -9.1B99 -9.2199 -9.2499 -9.2799 -9.3999 -9.3399 -9.3&99 -9.3999 817-9.4299 +"' -9.4599 -9.4B99 -9.5199 -9.5499 -9.5799
The 14 bar RSI is doin!: the reverse of what it did earlier. It is lagging the price move. It is not giving any signal at all other than having crossed the 500;. line. The same things we said about waiting for an upward move are now true of waitfor a dOWIlWard move. However, our 20 day window dosed with the completion of 817.
9---------------------------------------------------------------------9----------------------------------------------------------------------
_817
9---------------------------------------------------------------------nay
Jun
Jul
Auy
It might interest you to know what happened after the closing of the 20 day window. The optimized em date for this trade does not occur mltil9/4. I believe that when you see it, you will be convinced of the wisdom extant in following signals or lack thereof given by these indicators should you choose to use them.
158
, " " " , iI
I, , I I , I "
Jun
11 " I
I
IIIIIII1111 " "I'll I1I1I1 , , I I I , I d Jul
Aug
t! I I1 I
lilt I1 It! 11 1
.B4BB .BBBB -B.B4BB -9.98BB -9. 12BB -B.16B9 -B.299B -9.24BB -B.2BBB -9.32BB -B.36BB -B.4BBB -9.44BB -9.48BB -9.52BB -B.56B9 -B.6BBB -9.64BB .214 -9.6899 -B.7ZBB -B.76B9 -B.BBBB -B.B4BB -B.B8BB
I
Sep
The chart above shows the final outcome of SBKlSBV at the time of the optimized entry date. Shortly after the 20 day window, there was a truly clear, non-seasonal entry signal. I would be remiss if! didn't show you this event. It will serve to make an additional point of which I feel you should be aware: Whereas a price chart always reflects all the knowledge that is in the market, it cannot possibly show knowledge that is soon to be included in the market. Nothing I know of can foretell the future. The fact that the spread failed to act in accordance with its historical profile within the 20 day window served as a strong warning that all was not fundamentally as it should be. Although this in itself was not predictive of future price action, it still offered a situation in which great caution should have been taken with regards to the fundamentals that were underlying the sugar contracts. There is an inherent weakness in blindly following a mechanical system. We saw that weakness in the previous Cattle trade and now again in this Sugar trade. 159
The si
al to reverse e
ectations and enter SBV/SBK is shown on the next chart.
On 819 prices made a new low for the entire series of prices shown on the chart. That new low caused the upper BB to turn over and clearly indicate a downtrend. .2500 The lower BB was already indicating a downtrend in force as was the simple .2000 moving average. In other words, all three segments of the BB's showed a .1500 downtrend. .1000 .0500 . Snnple downtrend .0000 -0.0500 -0.1000 -0.1500 -0.2000 -0.2500 -0.3000 -0.3500 -0.4000 +-819-0.4500 -0.5000 In conjunction with this event, the bands began to -0.5500 manifest a steady distance apart. There remained -0.6000 only a confImlation from RSI that it, too, was trending -0.6500 -0.7000 down and not already in an "oversold" state (i.e., below the 20% line). -0.7500 -0.8000 -0.8500
160
SBVlSBK
0----------------------------------------------------------------------
~
0_ ______________ _________________ _________
________
Simple downtrend _ofRSI.
_ ___ _
_819 RSIis not 0--------------------------------------------------------------------iiversold. 0 _____________________________________________________________________ _
May
Jul
Jun
Aug
Reversing the trade, SBKlSBV to SBV/SBK on a non-seasonal basis would have been a good idea if simple fundamentals were taken into consideration, i.e., that World Sugar was perceived to be in short supply.
A final word about counter-seasonal spreads is in order here. Whenever you are confronted with counter-seasonal trades, it is a good idea to extend the expectation of such counter-seasonality to all trades within the same or even related markets. It is not unusual for counter-seasonality to continue for some time. You can make some wonderful trades from markets that are moving against their normal seasonal pattern. When you see them, jump on them. You will have little if any competition from other traders. Typically, when a seasonal spread goes the opposite way than expected, there will be a substantial move, one from which you can profit greatly.
161'
162
PARTII
OUTRIGHT SEASONALS
163
164
Chapter 16
Introducing Seasonals
I've been showing you concepts and techniques using line charts. I know that most of you are not as familiar with line charts as you are with bar charts. Please be aware that the techniques I've shown you regarding Bollinger Bands and RSI are as equally applicable to bar charts as to line charts. Now, in Part n, I am going to show you techniques using bar charts that are equally applicable to the use of line charts. I've chosen to show these techniques using bar charts because of most readers' greater familiarity with them.
In Trading by the Book I presented a concept that I am going to repeat here. It is one of the overriding principles of all trading. The concept looks like this:
Usually, it will
continue - - - >
When momentum
165.
What must be realized is; that w~en fundamental conditions exist that impart momentum to a market, most of the tIme that momentum will continue. This is a rather simp~~stic ~~~lanation ~d certainly there is more to it than what I've just shown. The more IS found ill the center of the chart, typically called a retracement or correction. The retracement or correction is much shorter in time and much smaller in magnitude than the rest of the move. The causes of the retracement are several and can occur in a variety of ways depending upon the participants. The reasons and how th~ participants fit into the pic~e, are taught at my seminars, but I won't'leave you WIthout a clue. One of the major causes of every retracement is that of profit taking.
In periods when markets are retracing, the magnitude and extent of the retracement ~s largely dependent upon_who the participants are and their reasons for taking profIts where and when they do. ~'ll give ~ou ~other clue, one that anyone who aspires to trade must always take mto consIderatIon The markets are driven by fear and greed, and of the two, fear is the more pervasive.
Before I introduce the various techniques and tools that I use for trading seasonals I need to explain just what I mean by a seasonal trade. '
166
Chapter 17
What is a "Seasonal?"
For purposes of this course, a seasonal is an outright futures trade whose main reason for entry is that it falls within an optimized window in time. In other words, the primary filter for a seasonal futures trade is a time-tested entry window. Why Trade Seasonals? Over a period of many years, seasonal entry signals for trades have proven to be among the most consistently effective and reliable of all entry signals. This does not mean that one can blindly enter a seasonal trade without the use of other entry filters, but when trading seasonal trades in futures, the primary rationale for the trade is the fact that it is taking place during a time period that has repeatedly proven to be a "best" time for successful entry. The chances for a winning trade are greatly multiplied.
My Own Experience Decades ago, when I was being taught the art of trading, I was instructed to memorize certain seasonal trades. I was taught that at certain times of the year various commodities had a tendency to rise, and at other times of the year those same commodities had a tendency to fall.
167.
In fact, much of my early trading success centered around the reliability of seasonal trades. At that time I did not have the benefit of a commercial computerized service to assist me in selecting such trades. I was taught most of them. Those in which I was not directly instructed I leamed as a result of studying charts and information available from the exchanges. I also leamed some of them from the work and research of brokerage firms and other traders. The entire process spanned many years of trading. As with seasonal spreads, outright seasonal futures trades must be filtered by means other than a simple time window. In my opinion, filtering seasonal futures is more difficult than filtering seasonal spreads. Let's take a look at the advantages and disadvantages of seasonal futures. Advantages of Seasonal Futures The main advantage to trading seasonal futures is the enhanced opportunity for success. Another benefit is the lack of competition in these trades. In their anxiety to get rich quickly, most traders ignore seasonality in trading futures. Although much has been written about seasonal trading, few traders have the patience to wait for seasonal windows to open a better opportunity. Seasonal trading has the advantage of commercial power. The strong hands in the market are totally aware of seasonality. In fact, in many cases their actions are the primary factor behind a seasonal trade. Prior to a harvest, commercial interests have a compelling reason to attempt to push down the prices of a cOII1Il1odity in order to be able to buy for less. As a general rule, commercial interests are more powerful than are producers. Producers tend to be smaller and weaker than the commercials who buy their output. What individual or corporate farmer can compete financially with a company the size of some of the major food processors in the US, Canada, or Europe? Under normal circumstances, their actions, especially in commercially dominated markets such as cocoa and coffee, tend to depress prices for a period of time. That period of time, in part, gives rise to the seasonality in a particular commodity market.
168
When the commercial interests decide to buy, that, too, gives rise in part to seasonality in the markets. Governments, with their various agricultural policies, can affect seasonality in various commodity markets. Governments tend to try to dissipate seasonality. By encouraging massive storage programs, governments try to even out the supply of commodities. Government subsidies and protective tariffs also tend to modify the seasonality normally extant in commodities. Perhaps the first government intervention of this sort is recorded in Bible. The patriarch Joseph stored grains for seven years having been apprised of a comingfamine that would last equally as long. Cartels, such as OPEC and the Cocoa and Coffee Cartels, are an attempt by producers to control the prices of commodity markets and offset the effects of commercial domination. Very often these cartels are also formed to offset the effects of government policies. The greatest overriding factor involved in seasonality is that of weather. Weather conditions can overwhelm even the largest commercial interests, producer cartels, or governments. Generally speaking, I like the idea that when I am shorting a market, the major interests, the strong hands in the market, are busily depressing prices. Conversely, I feel a lot better about buying a market when these same interests are eager to buy a particular commodity. Just as there are times when the strong hands are busy depressing prices, there are periods in which the strong hands traditionally drive prices up. Once they have completed their purchases of a commodity at the lowest prices possible, having driven out the weak hands in a market, it is in their best interests to drive prices up. They love to do this at times when demand is the greatest. There are seasonal tendencies in demand as well as in supply. Seasonal trading has the advantage of professionalism. The wise traders in the market are the ones aware of seasonal tendencies. Their actions tend to aid my cause in trading. Funds, large pools, and institutional traders rush in and out of markets, greedily eager to grab off some quick profits. Their trading tends to be mechanical, based upon some mathematical model or computerized trading system. Much noise in the
169
markets is created by the charging in and out of a myriad of daytraders. Such trading is often unwise, as is evidenced by the horrendous mortality rate among such traders. The institutional traders, the large pools of money, etc., pay little attention to seasonality, lacking both patience and wisdom. It is exactly the opposite amongihe commercial interests, the cartels, and the large traders. They have the wisdom of many years. They are totally aware of seasonal tendencies and they often have the power to move markets. They can do it despite the noise created by those who foolishly jump in and out of markets in a frenzied, greed-driven manner of trading. Even in those markets that appear quite erratic due to constant in-and-out trading, the undercurrent of the wise traders can be followed. They are the ones who create and maintain the trends in the markets, they are the ones who know where a particular market is going, and they are the ones, the strong hands, who can take it there.
The seasonal trader has the advantage of being in step with the wise and powerful traders. It is difficult to think of a stronger entry filter. Disadvantages of Seasonal Futures The disadvantage of seasonal futures trading are many, but with proper management they can be overcome. It is not my purpose to scare anyone away from the trading of futures, but happy is the trader who knows and understands what one is up against when dealing in futures. In Part III of this course, I will be discussing some of the problems encountered. At that time, I will address only those disadvantages that are peculiar to seasonal futures. The main disadvantage to trading seasonal futures is that of being mislead or misinformed about the need for additional filters. Seasonal futures trades do not stand on their own strength. They must be filtered beyond the fact of seasonality. Such filters can be fundamental in nature, technical in nature, or both, but they must be put in place in order to increase the expectation of success. I'm happy to say that providers of information on seasonal futures warn against blindly taking seasonal entries. If a commodity is trading in a seasonal window that calls for a trader to sell, and that commodity is in short supply, then it would be the height of foolishness to attempt a short position in such a market. Understanding the condition of a market
170
before entry entails some work. It involves some research. It means you will have to exert some effort to find out at least a small amount of fundamental information about the vehicle that underlies the futures contract you are about to enter. Some traders would consider having to perform this kind of work to be a disadvantage. To properly trade seasonal futures involves the expense of discovering which trades are seasonal. My opinion is that these are best discovered through the use of a commercial service or advisory. A trader earns money by trading so that he can pay for research. The major research into seasonal trades is best left to specialists who have the facilities for ongoing exploration of such trades. Over time, seasonal windows can shift, appear, and disappear. Shifts, appearances, and disappearances can be attributed to local or global shifts in supply and demand, changes in weather, and changes in economic and political policies of regions and nations. To some traders, the expense of discovering and keeping current on seasonality in futures is viewed as a disadvantage. Sources of Seasonal Futures Information The various exchanges publish information about seasonality in the outright futures. Generally this material can be obtained at nominal cost and in many instances is free. There are also some excellent commercial sources for seasonal futures trades. Such trades are discovered by computer analysis, and the sources are listed in Appendix C of this course.
171
172
Chapter 18 Seasonal Futures Market Selection
Although seasonal futures traders have many disadvantages from which seasonal spread traders find themselves considerably protected, there is still reason to enter outright seasonal futures trades. The effect of seasonality is so considerable that, in my opinion, it ought to be one of the primary considerations for any position trade in outright futures. Market selection in seasonal futures is somewhat more complicated than it is in seasonal spread selection. This is because seasonal futures trading lacks many of the advantages of seasonal spread trading. Stop running, which is not a factor with seasonal spreads, is a serious factor with seasonal futures. To a large extent seasonal spread trading avoids volatility in the market place. Not so with seasonal futures. Seasonal futures trades are fully exposed to volatility. Seasonal spreads have the advantage of being largely unresponsive to the direction of the trend in outright futures. This is not true of seasonal futures trades. Seasonal futures trades will suffer greatly when the underlying market trends against the trader's position. While seasonal spreads are mostly immune to explosions and collapses in the underlying futures, seasonal futures positions are much more vulnerable to explosive events and can be devastated by explosions and collapses.
173.
Liquidity looms much more important with seasonal futures trading than with seasonal spread trading, as does treachery in markets that are controlled by a few traders, which I call "Old Boy" markets. Whereas I would consider a seasonal spread trade in Orange Juice to be viable, I would refuse to take an outright trade in such a treacherous market no matter what the potential profits might seem to be. While I might enter a trade in the TED Spread, I would never take an outright position in T-Bills because they are much too thin and illiquid. With the exception of highly unusual circumstances, I will not trade outright seasonal futures in Feeder Cattle, Coffee, Copper, Heating Oil, or Unleaded Gas. I refuse to trade Cotton even when it is not thin because of the treachery that takes place among the "good old boys" in the Cotton Pit. Such markets as Feeder Cattle, Lumber, Value Line, Canadian Dollars, Pork Bellies, and often Coffee are much too thin to trade and should be left to those having a commercial interest. Trades in Cocoa may at times be acceptable. I know that some of my readers will say, "Why did you leave out Platinum futures, or what's wrong with trading Heating Oil contracts? My answer is that I can only indicate to you those markets in which I would personally consider seasonal trades. You may not agree with my choices. You may have a favorite market not mentioned in my list. You may have a commercial or hedger's interest in a market not discussed here. Certainly, you should choose to trade in those markets in which you are the most comfortable. It is generally preferable to select markets in which you have knowledge and a genuine interest. In any case, there are plenty of markets in which to trade outright seasonal futures:
Currencies: D-Mark, J-Yen, S-Franc, and occasionally B-Pound. B-Pound can be thin at times. Energy: Crude Oil, and hopefully, Natural Gas.
Grain:
174
Corn, Chicago Wheat, Soybeans, Kansas City Wheat, Soybean Oil. Financial: US Treasury Bonds, Ten Year Treasury Notes, Eurodollars. Meat: Live Cattle and Live Hogs (be careful with the Hogs). Metal: Gold, Silver.
175
176
Chapter 19
Seasonal Futures Trade Selection
Seasonal futures trades require a filtering process, as do trades in seasonal spreads. The filtering process is a bit more difficult for seasonal futures than for seasonal spreads.
Outright Seasonal Futures: The Filtering Process Here is my filtering process: I check to see if there is any fundamental reason for the seasonal futures to behave abnormally. I want to know if there is any news or market situation that would affect the seasonal tendencies of the trade 1'm about to enter; drought, flood, shortages, oversupply, governmental decisions, political situations, etc,. In short, I want to know about anything that might affect the market and my proposed trade. I enter a proven seasonal futures trade during a time window covering ten trading days prior through ten trading days subsequent to the usual entry date for the trade, a total time window of twenty trading days in all.
177·
I e~ter the trade based upon a signal from a simple chart pattern. If such a signal d~e.s not appear, I refrain from entering the trade regardless of the probability of success. If I miss a good trade because of a failure of the chart pattern to appear> I consider that this was not my trade. The chart patterns are detarled ill Appendix A. As discussed previ?usly, ",:ith the ~dvent of computerized selection of seasonal futures trades and With that info~atlOn so readily available, I no longer go through the process of trymg .to mem~nze them. My time as a trader is far too valuable for me to pore over ancI~nt trading history looking for seasonal futures trades. For a small sum, I can obtaill more opportunities than I would find by man 11 h ing these types of trades. ua y researc It is also necessary to check the fundamentals when trading seasonally with outright
fu~es. Rather than ~sk you to re-read Chapter 5, I'm going to include a modified
verSion of ItS content ill the next chapter.
178
Chapter 20
Outright Seasonal Futures: Checking the Fundamentals
The first step of my filtering process is to check everything I can about the general fundamentals of the underlying futures contracts relative to the time of year I propose making my entry. F or me this means looking at the most basic of fundamentals that are readily available. I've written elsewhere that as an individual trader I carmot hope to compete with the large commercial interests in gathering fundamentals. That statement remains true today. The large commercials can afford to have agents worldwide who can go out in the fields and examine crops, research intended plantings and actual plantings, pore over government and private reports of crop conditions, weather, soil conditions, insect infestations, etc. However, there is certain fundamental information available to the individual trader and, in fact, with the news reports available via a data feed, there is more information than I can possibly handle or want to know. Seasonal Futures: Checking the Weather It doesn't take a great deal of effort to turn on the news and find out the weather, not only in one's own country, but worldwide.
179
If there is flooding or drought in the Midwest that will affect the grains, it doesn't take much effort to find out about it. If there is a freeze in Brazil that could affect coffee or soybeans, it doesn't take a lot of research to be informed about that either. I can quite easily find out if the silver miners in Mexico are threatening a strike. If there is trouble in South Africa that might affect the mining of gold or platinum, it will be part of the news. If OPEC is planning a meeting, energy prices are likely to be affected, and it's not difficult to find out. The news will carry tales of unrest in the Ivory Coast that might affect the supply of cocoa beans, etc. The point I am making is as old as the hills, "LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP." This point is in keeping with myoid adage, "Trade what you see, not what you think." Any oddity in the weather is going to cause me to take a hard look at a proposed seasonal futures trade in a commodity that is eaten by someone or some thing. I am going to see if the underlying markets appear at all normal individually and relative to each other. Depending upon what I find, I may even consider entering a seasonal futures trade opposite to the way in which it was intended to be traded. I'm also going to look for the next item. Seasonal Futures: Checking for Backwardation One of the easiest things to spot is the reversal of the natural order of prices. This reversal is known as "backwardation" and can be seen in any newspaper that features a section carrying futures prices. For all futures contracts except interest rate contracts, the normal carrying charges (insurance, storage, interest) cause prices in the later (back) months to be higher than prices in the nearer (front) months. However, when some change in the fundamentals occurs to cause excessive demand in the front months, the prices in the front months may rise higher than those of some of the back months, causing backwardation. Backwardation is caused when someone is willing to pay a premium today to get something that they fear may be much more costly later on. If I see backwardation in anything but interest rate futures (where it is normal for contract prices in the front months to be higher), I am immediately alerted to the fact that a normal seasonal futures trade may not be profitable. In fact, such a condition may cause me to consider going opposite to the seasonal tendency.
180
Backwardation in the interest rate contracts is the opposite of that in the commodities the back months become higher in price than the front months. Backwardation the:e will cause me to be alerted to potential problems. Suppose I had a seasonal trade calling for shorting January Soybeans future.s. I would want to see a normal progression in prices from lower front months to hlgher back months because this would be the normal progression for Soybeans. Let's now look to see if there is any backwardation in my supposed Soybean futures trade. SOYBEAN FUTURES PRlCES January
679112
March
688114
May
692 112
July
693
The progression from low to high prices is normal for ~oybean price~. If there is also a normal condition in open interest, I would be mclmed to take this trade. The only remaining factors would then be an entry based upon an appropriate chart signal within the seasonal window. Seasonal Futures: Checking the Position of Commercials and Large Traders There are two sources I can look at to see the position of the major players in the markets: l. The exchange issued "Position of Large Traders Report."
2. The open interest of Put and Call options on futures. The normal position of commercial and large traders is to be short the various commodity markets and long the interest bearing financial fu~es. What I am concern~d with is if the "big guys" decide to get long commodlty futures (short financlal futures).
181'
This situation mayor may not occur in conjunction with backwardation. Getting long commodity futures means the big guys are buying futures or selling Put options. Getting long interest rates means getting short financial futures. To do this, the big guys are selling financial futures and selling Call options. If a major shift in open interest does occur, I will reconsider any proposed seasonal futures trades and, again, may even consider a reverse futures entry.
The Position of Large Traders Report This report is issued once a month by the exchanges. It is not a timely report and is issued two weeks after the data are known. It becomes increasingly less reliable as time passes and the next report is due. I find that for purposes of seasonal futures trading, this report is not quite adequate. The Position of Large Traders Report is available by calling the exchanges, and is generally available from data services that carry news reports.
Put and Call Open Interest A current view of the position of commercial and large trader interests can be ascertained by looking at the Put and Call open interest in options for the individual contract that is going to be included in the seasonal futures trade. The reason for checking this factor is that the large traders and commercials are the parties who write and sell most of the available options in any market. Put and Call open interest by month is not generally available in newspapers. As far as I know, it must be obtilined commercially from data services that carry the daily reported figures. Availability probably includes every live and end-of-day data service because the exchanges release open interest by contract along with volume and prices on a daily basis. (By the way, futures and options volume and open interest figures are always reported a day late.) I'm going to show you what I see and what I look for on my computer screen.
182
Ill.
h. ;,
I'm interested in the numbers I've circled. Those represent the amount of open interest for, in this case, Soybean Puts at the strike prices shown at the top of the column.
183
···:1250 .1250 .1250
~
··1:13131313
.7500 1.0000
~
. ·7:251313 4.7500 5.5000
69 ~
··24:51313
17.750 19.000 36 4045
~upposing I had the same seasonal trade discussed under the topic of backwardatIOn. Th~ trad~ was to get short the January contract for Soybean futures on a seasonal ?aSls. Sm.ce I found that the normal progression for prices was in effect, and assurmn~ there l~ ~o news that would prevent me from taking this trade, I would then be~ exammmg the options open interest for Soybeans. First I would look at the open mterest of the near and at-the-money strike prices in the January Soybeans Sin~e the commercials are usually short Soybeans, the normal position for them t~ be m the options would be to be short Calls, or short futures. For the market to be no~al, there should be significantly more Call open interest than Put open interest. If ~lS were not the case, .1 would be alerted that there may be something abnormal gomg on, perhaps something I have not picked up from the news. It may mean that I have to dig further into the fundamentals of the Soybean market.
With Soybean futures at-679, and prices generally rising, Put open interest for the first three strikes below the market (625, 650, and 675) totals 22,222 contracts. Now let's look at the open interest for the three strikes above the market on the January Soybean Calls.
184
The Call open interest for those three strikes (700, 725, and 750) totals 23,367 showing that the commercial interests in Soybeans are not overwhelmingly short. If they were, I would have expected them to write many more Calls. Call open interest exceeds Put open interest by only a small amount. This may indicate that the commercials are neutral or are themselves long this market.
.•. :8750
··17:51313
.5000 .7500
12.000 16.000 867 ?279
12-15
12-15
~
12-15
12-15
12-15
This is not the normal condition I would expect for Soybean futures. I would now be alert to the possibility of an inverted seasonal trade. I would feel unable to proceed with the trade based upon the factor of options open interest even if everything else were correct. As it turned out in actual practice, Soybeans continued to rise higher for some time due to an unusual demand for them. Had you not looked at any fundamentals, the lack of an excess of Calls over Puts in this market was sufficient reason for you to seek additional information on the fundamentals of Soybeans.
185
186
Chapter 21 Seasonal Futures: Time Window
Seasonal futures trades work best from a window in time. Computer generated seasonals offer an optimized entry date and an optimized exit date. I have found, and the providers of such dates state, that you shouldn't enter a trade based solely upon optimized dates. That is why I use a time window of twenty trading days based around an optimized entry date. Of course, sometimes I miss good trades that fall in line before or after my preferred window. I assume these trades were not meant for me and look elsewhere for opportunities. Sometimes the optimized seasonal dates produce better results than my seasonal window, but most times, my seasonal window produces the better results. That's why I continue to use them. The results using my entry window are similar to those for seasonal spread trades. The following comparison charts will show you that sometimes the optimized dates are better and sometimes my own window is better.
187
A trade to get short November Soybeans on 7117 and exit on 8/8 was previously unknown to me. As you can see by the dates, this seasonal tendency does not last all that long. Yet Moore's research reports this trade as having worked in 13 out of 15 years for an 86% accuracy rating.
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111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111I111111111111111111111111111111 Ju 1 Aug Sep Oct
&7f>.liIB &72.BB &&8.BB &&4.BB &&B.BB &5&.BB &52.BB M8.BB &44.BB &4B.BB &3&.BB &32.BB &28.BB 624.BB 62B.BB 61&.BB 612.BB &B8.BB &B4.BB 6BB.BB 596.BB 592.BB 588.BB 584.BB
It would have been diffi~ult to come up with a better entry date than the optirnized entry date for this trade. Following the chart pattern would have resulted in less of a gain and not quite as good an exit. The only way the optimized exit date could have been better would have been if it came 3 days later than it did (8111). The entry date to go short was the top of the market at that time.
As long as I get my piece out of the middle, I'm happy. But there is no question on this trade that had you taken the optirnized entry date you would have made more money. However, that entry date does not take into account any filters that might have been used. Depending upon which filters were used, the trade might not have been as good as was the pattern trade, and the trade might not have been entered at all. For instance, look at the following chart: 188
On the optimized entry date, BB's were moving apart showing the increased volatility in the Soybean market. Both the upper BB and moving average lines were clearly in an uptrend.
8 _____________________________________________________________________ _ Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
A 14 bar RSI gave a sell signal the day after the top was in place. Would you have been willing to enter on that signal alone without confnmation from BB? To me it looked as though prices were possibly going to go higher, and that the inside day after the top was merely a p aus e for profit taking in the market.
189
68B.B8 675.B9 67B.B8 &&5.138 66B.B8 655.138 65B.B8 645.138 64B.B9 635.B8 63B.B9 &25.B9 620.99 615.B9 61B.BB &B5.B9 6BB.BB 595. BB 59B.BB 585.BB 58B.B9 575.BB 57B.BB 565.BB
So you see it's all a matter of perception. No one gets all the trades. No one always can pick tops or bottoms. There is no perfect way to trade. Here's another seasonal futures trade. Again, it is short term, and one I would not have known about without its being computer generated. The trade has worked 13 out of 15 years, i.e., 86% accurate based upon the optimized entry and exit dates. The trade calls for shorting September Cocoa. This trade calls for an opfunized enby date of 7124 and with an optimized exit on 8/17. The chart pattern gavae no enby signal whatsoever and so a lot of agrravation, drawdown, and eventual loss was avoided.
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13.920 13.840 13.769 13.680 13.600 13.520 13.440 13.360 13.289 13.200 13.120 13.040 12.960 12.880 12.800 12.720 12.M0 12.560 12.480 12.400 12.320 12.240 12.160 12.080
'Sep ..
This trade never fulfilled any chart pattern and so no trade was made. However, in this case no trade was better than a trade taken from the combination of Bollinger Bands and RSI. Unfortunately, these technical indicators, BB and RSI, gave an even worse signal than did the optimized entry date. You can see what happened on the next page.
190
Cell 14.300 14.200 14.100 14.000 13.900 13.809 13.700 13.600 13.509 13.400 13.300 13.200 13.100 13.000 12.900 12.800 12.700 12.609 12.500 12.400 12.300 12.200 12.100 12.000
RSI and BB technical
All of the BB lines are pointing down at this point.
.. ' ., ••• " I,ll, '" , ••• 1". ,I"", .1"" I,
Apr
May
"I'I'IIIII'IIIIIIIIIIIIII~JIIIIIIIIIIIIII Jun
---------------- ----------------------- ---------------------
----------------------- -----------------~---
14 barRSI
0 _____________________________________________________ ---;- ----------Apr
May
Jun
Ju
RSI, having crossed the 50% line, is heading down. It is not yet" oversold."
191
The third trade I'm going to show in this chapter involves another trade I would not have known about without the benefit of computer optimized seasonality. This trade caIls for buying the September Swiss Franc on July 31, and selling it on August 22. This trade has 80% accuracy and has worked 12 out of 15 years. SFU
"Note: The number 3 point of the pattern comes 10 days prior to the optimized exit date.
....
exit date
" .. ,.""",1111111111111111111111111111111111111111IIIIIIIIIIillllllllllllllll l " , Jun Jul Aug Sep
.B950 .B988 .BB50 .B880 .B750 .B788 .B650 .B688 .8550 .8S88 .B158 .B180 .8358 .B380 . 82S9 .B299 .8159 .B109 .B9S9 .8999 . 79S9 .7999 .7859 .7899
Can you see that the pattern entry, if made at the exact prices shown by the arrows, would have resulted in a breakeven or small loss? The optimized entry date would have gotten you into this trade the day before the high of the Trading Range was made, and the optimized exit date resulted in a disastrous trade. In this case, the best trade signal of all was given by the BoIlinger Bands and the 14 Bar RSI. Because neither one of them gave any kind of a signal at all, you would not have entered the trade. I have shown how the market looked during the entire 20 day window up until contract expiration.
192
SFU B9.290 B8.888 B8.499 B8.080 B7.680 87.290 B6.889 B6.180 86.080 BS.680 BS.2BB B4.899 B4.499 B4.990 B3.699 B3.290 B2.890 B2.499 B2.090 B1.699 B1.299 B9.899 B9.490 B9.9B9
BB's remained flat and gave no ~ signal during the 1 10 days prior to the optimized entry date.
Jun
Jul
Aug
14 bar RSI chopped along the 50% line during the same period and most certainly did not give a buy signal.
193
Sep
~ t~s chapter I've tried to sho~ you that there are no perfect methods for filtering e est overall for my own trading has been chart pattern entries.
.
In lthl' e nexBt chdapter I'm going to show you how to use chart patterns coupled with Bo mger an s.
194
Chapter 22 Trading Seasonal Futures with Chart Patterns and Bollinger Bands
As we begin this chapter, I want to remind you that the techniques I show here are equally applicable to the trading of seasonal spread charts. I have had much success using chart patterns in conjunction with Bollinger Bands. The bands are used to enhance what I see in the chart patterns and not the other way around. In other words, the chart patterns are able to stand on their own, but the bands are used to provide information I am unable to see in the chart patterns themselves. The Bollinger Bands are not able to be used in and of themselves for entry and exit signals. There must be a filter, non-correlated to the greatest degree possible. Why Use Bollinger Bands with Chart Patterns? Bollinger Bands are an excellent measure of volatility. They are closely related to the volatility measurements used in options trading models, where volatility is considered to be of utmost importance. In truth, an options model is only as accurate as its ability to accurately compute true historical volatility. Bollinger bands come as close as anything I've ever seen to accurately giving a pictorial view of historical volatility. Bollinger bands offer a way to see a statistical measurement that would otherwise be quite difficult to ascertain in any other manner. That measurement is the location of two standard deviations. 195
Why is this important? Two standard deviations give an excellent profile of where approximately 96% of the price action will be contained. Pure statistics dictate that if yo~ measure n:vo standard deviations from a 20 bar moving average of the close, you wIll see contaInment of 96% of those closes. This represents knowledge of major significance to a trader. If a chart pattern yielding 65% accuracy in being correct for entry signals is coupled with an indicator containing 96% of the price action at the close, then an entry technique based upon the chart pattern and the Bollinger Bands should yield a method that is 62 4% (96% x 65%) accurate in calling tradable entry signals. If a chart pattern is ac~urate 80% of the time, then coupling those chart pattern signals with an indication from the Bollinger Bands should offer a method that is 76.8% (96% x 80%) accurate in providing a good entry signal. Of course, entry signals represent only a small part of trading. . It is what you do once you are in the trade that counts. It is trade, risk, money, busmess, and person~ management that should make up the bulk of a trader's activity. Exiting prop~rly IS far more important than anything one can do at entry. Entry can be done WIth the flip of a coin or by throwing a dart at a dart board. ~f the. trade is pr??erly man~ged thereafter, the chances for a win are far greater than If a high probabIlIty entry SIgnal is coupled with a poorly managed, poorly exited trade. Unfo~ately, most traders spend the majority of their time looking for the perfect entry SIgnal, and thoroughly neglect all other matters of management on the mistaken idea that if ~ey c~ make the perfect entry, everything else will work itself out and they cannot faIl to wm. Bollinger Bands are also useful as an overboughtl~ve~sold indicator.. In my opinion, they are every bit as accurate as any other mdIcator purportmg to .measure overboughtloversold. Overboughtloversold indicators give an accurate pIcture of this so-called condition only when a market is moving sideways. Once a market begins to trend, they are virtually worthless as far as .be~g acc~rate for the overboughtloversold condition. As a market trends, these mdIcators sImpl~ wobbl~ along in the overbought or oversold area, continuously ~ving false readmgs untIl such time as the market begins to move sideways once agam. Bollinger Bands also give excellent overboughtloversold signals when a market is moving sideways in a Trading Range. As prices approach the upper or lower bands,
196
they will often bounce off of those bands and head back across the channel toward the opposite band. When a market begins to trend, eventually the bands will begin to trend, offering a far better indication of what is taking place than is available from overboughtloversold oscillators. As we go through the various charts in this section, you will see the validity of what I'm writing here. When you see prices hugging a Bollinger Band, and the Band is trending, you know you are in a trend. However, Bollinger Bands do not offer a very accurate picture of momentum. They are far too sensitive for that. When a market has been moving sideways for awhile, alInost any sizable move will send prices scurrying from one band to the other. This situation was seen in the chapter on combining Bollinger Bands with RSI. Quite often, prices seemingly rushed from one side of the channel to the other, while RSI failed to confirm what appeared to be great momentum. The reason for the inaccuracy of Bollinger Bands to properly record momentum is that in a sideways market, any sizable one day price move is going to show a major deviation from a moving average of price moves. This brings me to a final adYantage of using Bollinger Bands. They are extremely sensitive to sizable one-day price moves. This means the bands will respond relatively quickly to the beginning of a trend, or to the ending of a trend. When properly assessed in conjunction with chart patterns, a trader can obtain an excellent visualization of what is happening in a market. Over the years, the more I have used Bollinger Bands, the more I have come to rely on them for a broader and more in-depth picture of the markets I observe. I use them on daily, weekly, and monthly charts. In recent years I have used them on long-term charts to pick up major moves in Gold, Eurodollars, and British Pound. However, none of those were seasonal trades. Since this is a course on seasonal trading, the situations and charts I will be showing pertain strictly to seasonal trades. Seasonality has been a major filter for me since I began trading almost four decades ago. However, be aware that even if you are not using seasonality as a filter, these techniques are still valid. They can be used on intraday charts as well as weekly and monthly charts. Seasonality is not really a factor on intraday charts, and it has limited use on weekly and monthly charts. When trading those, I generally have to forego the benefits of seasonality . 197
Understand, also, that the series of trades that are illustrated in this chapter are not meant to impress you with the "magic" of trading with this method. I have not included here a bunch of spectacular trades with which to impress you. In my trading career, the vast majority of trades have been mundane. I try to make my living from the day to day trading that occurs in the day to day markets. I know professional traders who have never made the really "big" score. They don't have time for that. They take their piece of what they can get, realizing that even the smallest win is a victory because it means they didn't lose. Each trade included in this chapter is designed to teach a lesson. Each is designed to bring home to you the things I look for. Each has one or more points to make. All of these trades exhibit the exercise of discipline. I hope, also, that you will see that consistency is the key to successful trading. I recently received a letter from one of my students which I will print here for you, because it gives me a great thrill every time I hear from a student who is finally making it in this tough business. "Dear Joe, I have just finished reading Trading Is a Business for the umpteenth time and it seemed appropriate to write and thank you for the insights contained therein. "I have been trading consistently since May and have never had a losing month in that time. They have not all been brilliant successes, mind you! "It has taken a while, but it finally dawned on me that the patterns are less important that the con-
text in which they occur. In the right conditions the techniques have a greater probability of success. As a result I am able to take entries in a strongly trending market (S&P) with no more than six ticks at risk. Some of my friends think that I am crazy, but I do not care because it works. "Also, I have performed exhaustive back testing of different exit techniques with the hope that one would prove to be better than the rest. You know what I discovered? They produced different results on a trade by trade basis, but overall the results were so similar as to make little difference. Then the light came on. The key is be consistent!"
Dear readers of this book, please take the preceding comments to heart. And now onward and upward.
Why Not to Use Bollinger Bands With Chart Patterns If you are the type of trader who requires lots of action, the combination of chart patterns and Bollinger Bands may provide too much of a filter for you. You may have to wait longer than you would like to see situations in which the seasonal 198
window the chart pattern, and the Bollinger Bands are all signaling an entry. Invariably: such entry signals will rarely be at the very inception of a move. ~owever, such signals will pick up major moves in the markets. VefY, often, ge~g your piece of a major move may turn out to be worth more than gettmg a large plece of a lesser move. It is up to you as an individual trader to work out those levels in which you find yourself most comfortable. We are not all the same. There are traders who need and thrive on the action down on the trading floor. At the other extreme, there are traders who quite happily and contentedly trade from monthly chart~. I have a European student who was quite pleased being continuousl~ long Vla th~ S~P 500 monthly chart for a period extending over 5 years the last tune I spoke With him. Some traders have a tendency towards great caution in their trading and others are ready to throw caution to the winds if they feel they are "on a roll." The entry method under discussion in this chapter requires that an entry formation confinned by the Bollinger Bands takes place within the time frame of a s~asonal window. Such occurrences will not be frequent. If you do not have the patlent endurance to wait for these, then you will need to use one of the other methods presented in this course. present this method here because there are mature traders. ~ho appre.ciate the greater potential of this type of trading filter and who are Wlllmg to Walt for the
r
greater certainty of the move.
Bollinger Bands: A Wheat Trade The following trade surprised me when I read about it in Moore's research report. I ly atn used to selling December Wheat on a seasonal basis in late summer or eax: fall of the year. However, Moore's report calls for purchasing March Wheat m late 199
September. I was previously unaware of this trade. However, it has worked in 13 of 15 years for an 86% accuracy based upon the optimized entry and exit dates. WH
59(UIB 195.99 499.139 185.99 181'1.99 475.99 179.99 165.1313 4613.139 155.1313 1513.1313 445.1313 1113.139 135.1313 4313.1313 125.1313 1213.1313 115.1313 1113.139 4135.1313 41313.1313 395.1313 3913.1313 385.1313
Beginning with the interfuediate low, I count a 1-2-3 formation. Thereafter, every retracement that does not create a newer low than the previous retracement's low results in a Ross Hook (Rh). At the time, ten days prior to the optimized entry date, I would normally enter on a breakout of the high of the most recent Rh. That means I would be attempting entry on a breakout of the Rh just prior to the last one shown as the highest high on the chart. That signal is in and of itself a good signal. Now let's see if we can gain any depth of information from a look at the Bollinger Bands.
200
WH
Optimized entIy d~
The proposed seasonal entry is on a take out ofthis Rh...,.
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599.1313 495.1313 199.1313 185.913 1813.1313 475.1313 179.139 165.1313 4613.1313 155.139 1513.1313 115.1313 1113.1313 135.1313 4313.1313 425.1313 1213.1313 415.1313 4113.1313 1135.1313 41313.1313 395.1313 3913.1313 385.1313
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an uptrend ~ progre~s at the time of the proposed chart pattern entry. Notice that all three lmes ~e m an uptrend. Prices ~e hugging the upper band line and remaining constantly m the upper channel. V?lah.lity is also confinning theuptrend. When the Bol1~ger B~~s are. bo~ trending m the same direction and stay at relatively the same distance, It IS mdicahve of moderate volatility, exactly what should be found in a strongly trending market. The Bollinger Bands are in every way confirming an entry at the breakout of the Rh. Had a choice been made to enter this trade based upon the optimized entry date, the Bollinger Bands were still confirming the uptrend, although in and of themselves they are not giving a buy signal.
201 .
Bollinger Bands: A Yen Trade The next trad~ using chart patterns and Bollinger Bands involves buying the Japanese Yen. This trade has an 80% chance of Success if held from the optimi d try dat until th timiz d . d ze en e e op. e e'?t ate. Those dates call for entry in the last week of September and eXIt ill the third week of November. The trade has worked 12 of 15 years. JYZ 1.2900 1.2750 1.2600 1.2450 1.2300 1.2150 1.2000 1.1B50 1.1700 1.1550 1.1400 1.1250 1.1100 1.0950 1.0B00 1.0650 1.0500 1.0350 1.0200 1.0050 .9900 .9750 .9600 .9450
At the time of the proposed entry date, a chart pattern is just beginning to form. It is not yet .cl~ar whether or not a #3 point has been made. As much as ten days prior to the op~zed entry date, there was no buy signal of any kind as the market was clearly ill a downtrend. Now let's look at what the Bollinger Bands are telling us.
202
JYZ
OptiJni:zed entry date
Apr
May
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......AllY,......... ,.........Sep ,.... "I I I I~I I
1.2908 1.2758 1.2608 1.2458 1.2308 1.2158 1.2008 1.1B58 1.1708 1.1558 1.1408 1.1258 1.1108 1.0958 1.0B08 1.0658 1.0508 1.0358 1.0Z08 1.0050 .9908 .9758 .9608 .9458
Notice that the lower Bollinger Band has turned in. The two bands are coming together in a pincer-like movement. This signifies decreasing volatility and is a hint that the market may begin to move sideways for awhile. The bands had been fairly constant in their distance apart, but recently they became somewhat volatile and are now narrowing. The combination of these two factors having this kind of action is typical of at least a temporary market bottom. As you look back at the chart, you can see that virtually every sideways step in this market has been associated with bands displaying similar characteristics. The chart pattern is also revealing here. The extra long bars at the recent bottom are indicative of a change in momentum. This, too, occurs at market bottoms. I would not trade a breakout of the #2 point unless I had much confirmation from the Bollinger Bands that an uptrend was soon to be in progress. Now let's look to see if at any tinIe during the 20 day entry window a buy signal occurred for this seasonal trade.
203
JYZ
···, ...... ,......... ,.... "d
Jul
Auy
Sep
1.2900 1.2150 1.2600 1.2150 1.2300 1.2150 1.2000 1.1650 1.1100 1.1550 End of time 1 .1100 window. 1 .1250 1.1100 1.0950 1.0600 1.0650 1.0500 1.0350 1.0200 1.0050 .9900 .9150 .9600 .9150 11 1111 I1 111/1111111 Oct
At no time during the 20 day window did a signal arise from either the chart pattern or from anything visible from the Bollinger Bands. The bands have narrowe~ and at least the lower band has definitely gone flat. The moving average is flat as well. No trade has been possible based upon the technique for filtering used here. Let me show you one more chart that takes us beyond the exit date as set out for this trade. It will help you to see the action of the Bollinger Bands as they move into an extended Trading Range.
204
JYZ
Optimized entry date Optimized
...... ··tiay·· ······Jiin
. jiii"
....Auy ,...................Sep ,.... "dlllilllllll/III/IIII,III,lliI Oct
1.2900 1.2150 1.2600 1.2150 1.2300 1.2150 1.2000 1.1650 1.1100 1.1550 1.1100 1.1250 1.1100 1.0950 1.0600 1.0650 1.0500 1.0350 1.0200 1.0050 .9900 .9150 .9600 .9150
Looking at the chart between the time of the optimized entry date and the optimized exit date we can see an ever decreasing amount of volatility. By the time shown at the end ~f the chart, we have never had an entry chart pattern, and the Bollinger Bands are about as narrow as they can get. When the Bollinger Bands become extremely narrow, volatility is very low and this situation portends a soon-coming expansion of volatility. The breakout from this extended congestion could go either way. There is no way to predict the direction based upon what we see here. The seasonality of this trade failed to materialize. An entry on the optimized entry date would have produced a small loss by the time of the optimized exit date. The filters for this trade have worked well to keep us out of the market.
205
Bollinger Bands: A Soybean Trade The next trade I'm going to show you reveals what can happen when a trader flies in the face of not only his indicators, but the fundamentals as well. It is a seasonal trade in Soybeans in a year when demand for all grains was much greater than supply. This condition was easily ascertained from even the most cursory scanning of agricultural news. The trade calls for selling November Soybeans during the second week in September and buying them back in the first week of October. Commercial interests are usually hammering down Soybean prices during this time period just ahead of the bulk of the US harvest. As mentioned previously, even the strongest interests cannot overcome the forces of supply and demand, weather, or any other real fundamental reason for a market to behave the way it does when such fundamentals truly exist.
sx &&4.88 &&8.88 &5&.88 &52.88 &4B.88 &44.88 &48.88 &3&.88 &32.88 &2B.88 &24.88 &28.88 &1&.88 &12.88 &8B.88 &84.89 688.88 59&.00 592.88 5BB.88 584.00 588.80 57&.90 572.90 ,." .... ""',',."',",,.',',,',"',,"',',',","" ",1111111,.1",1,111111111111111111111111111111111111111I11111111111111111111111111 Apl'
May
Jun
Ju 1
Aug
Sep
Chart patterns for this trade indicate a steady uptrend beginning with a 1-2-3 formation followed by a series ofRoss Hooks. Certainly not a situation that lends itself to selling. Even as early as 10 days before the optimized entry date, there is no chart pattern indication to go short.
206
The Bollinger Bands confirm our conclusions.
sx Optimized
,..... ,,,", .. ,0000,,,,,,,,,',",,,,,,,"'"1','" Apl'
May
"lil Il'JI"I I I I I I I I I ~1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I g l I I I I I I I I ~ I ! I I I I un
&75.89 &79.09 &&5.09 &&8.09 &55.09 &50.09 &45.09 &40.99 &35.09 &38.99 &Z5.08 &20.89 &15.89 &10.09 &95.09 &99.89 595.09 598.89 5B5.80 588.89 575.89 579.80 5&5.80 5&8.89
u
At all times during the initial 10 days of the window, including ~e optimized entry date, all aspects of the Bollinger Bands are indic~tive of. a trend ID .progress. At the expense of being repetitive, both bands are tren~IDg, as 1S the mo~g average. ~e upper and lower bands are remaining at appr?Xlillately. ~e same distance apart, IDdicative of moderate volatility and a trend. Prices remam ID the upper channel. The market is trending. Add to this the fact that grains in related markets su~h as wheat and corn were in short supply. These factors when taken together give a strong indication that seasonality is not in effect.
207
Bollinger Bands: A Swiss Franc Trade This next trade in the Swiss Franc is entered in mid August with an optimized entry date of 8117. The trade calls for getting long December Swiss Francs almost one month prior to expiration. With that much time left, getting long December Swiss Francs would put you into a mighty thin market. I would prefer to enter long into the September contract and roll over into the December contract at such time the trade warrants continuation and the Volume and Open Interest in December exceed that of September. In currency trades I am particularly interested in liquidity, and December does not offer that liquidity until much closer to first notice day. First notice day for the currencies takes place in mid September.
srn
."".".""llllllllllllllll.lIllllllllllllllllllllllldlll1 Jun Jul Aug
.9599 .9490 .9390 .9290 .9190 .9090 .B990 .BB99 .B71i11i1 .B699 .B590 .B41i11i1 .B31i10 .B291i1 .Blli1li1 .B099 .7999 .7B1iI0 .7790 . 7691i1 . 751i11i1 .7499 .7399 .721i11i1
From ten days prior to the optimized entry date, until that actual date, there were no entry signals based upon chart patterns. As you will soon see, the optimized entry date turned out to be just about the perfect time to have entered this trade. Before we can make any judgments, we need to see the entire trade, including whatever patterns might develop in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands.
208
It is rare to get the benefit of an entire move. If we can manage to get "our piece"
of the move I will be content. Let's see what happened.
SFU .9590 .9490 . 931i10 .9290 .9190 . 901i10 .B990 .BB99 .B790 .B699 .6590 .B41i10 .B390 .B290 .B191i1 .B1iI1iI0 .7909 .7B1iI0 .7799 .7609 . 751i10 .7490 .7390 .7200
'May"
..... ,.,',,'" "J'u'n"'"
,1111111111111111,1111111111111111111111111111111111 Jul
Aug
Shortly after the optimized entry date a 1-2-3 low takes place on the chart .pattern. If we so choose, we can enter this seasonal trade on a breakout of the. #2 pomt. But because we are also filtering these trades with Bollinger Bands, we WIll have to WaIt until some sort of confirmation comes from them.
209
SFU
t~}HJ The chad pattern has given a breakout entry signal.
.......... ",,1111111111111111,11111111111111111111111Ilrlllllllllll Jun
Jul
.9500 .9100 .9300 .9200 .9100 .9000 .B900 .BB00 .B700 .B600 .B500 .B100 .B300 .B200 .B100 .B000 .7900 .7B00 .7700 .7600 .7500 .7100 .7300 .7200
Aug
We have ~ entry signal fr~n: ~e ~h~ pattern, but at this time all of the parameters o~ the Bollinger Bands are stIll mdlcatmg a short position is in order. Discipline for this method dictates that we stay out of the market. If we are going to use a method we need to be consistent in staying with our strategy and carrying out our tactics. ' Not always, but often, patience has its reward.
210
SJru
.9050 .9000 .B950 .B900 .BB50 .B800 .B750 .B700 .B650 .B600 .B550 .B500 .B150 .B100 .B350 .B300 .B250 .B200 .B150 .B100 .B050 .B000 .7950 .7900 .... , ..... ""IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIllllllllllllllllllrIIII1I1I1111111 Jlln
Jul
Aug
During the 20 day window allotted for entering this trade, Bollinger Bands never gave a confirming signal. We never managed to get our piece of the move. Does that bother you? Does that disappoint you? Do you think you must now run out and change parameters so that you do get an entry signal? Has much been missed by not getting into this trade? In my opinion, no! An optirnized entry would have delivered 118 points up to the last bar shown on the chart where my own 20 day window is closed. A few days later (not shown) witnessed the disappearance of all that paper profit, and a panicky exit could have ended up with an actual loss. Now, let's look at one more outright seasonal futures trade. I will show you one in Copper. Although I personally do not trade outright futures in Copper, others do, and there is particular lesson I want you to see.
211
Bollinger Bands: A Copper Trade At the. be~g of this chapter I said that only from time to time would a trade c~m~ m which an .entry pattern, confirmed by the Bollinger Bands, takes place WIthin a seasonal wmdow. Now let's look at this trade in September Copper so you can see for yours~lf that such things do happen. The trade called for entry at the end of the ~~t wee~ m June. The optimized entry date for the year shown was 6/6, with an optl1illzed eXIt date of7/2S. HGU
'D""·"I,.II",, .. "".".", ... 'I, .. """ .. ec
Jan
Feb
,~.II .... I"." .. ,... 'III",."".1"1",1."",,,11,111111111,11,11,11111 Mar
Apr
14100 13950 13800 13650 10 days 13500 prior to the 13350 optimize d 13200 ntry date 13050 12900 12750 12600 12450 12300 12150 12000 11850 11700 11550 11400 11250 11100 10950 10800 10650
May
Immediately prior to the opening of the 20 day window, prices formed a 1-2-3 low and on th~ very day the window opened, prices thrust upward taking out the high of ~e #2 pomt of the 1-2-3 pa~em. ~t ~at particular time the Bollinger Bands had Just reached a narrow flattenmg out mdlcatmg low volatility. We might say that all components of the bands were just about flat.
212
HGU
Rh
Optimized entry date
14109 13959 13899 13659 13599 13359 13299 13959 12909 12759 12699 12459 12399 12159 12999 11859 11799 11559 11409 11259 11190 19959 10899 10659
".".,."1 .. 11",, .. ,.".".", ... "".""" .. ,'.,.", ... 1.,." ...... ,111",."","'1",1 .. "".,11,111111111,11,11,111111111111II1 Dec
Jan
Feb
Ma.r
Apr
May
Jun
A second Ross Hook is formed on the very day of the optimized entry date. By this time, the Bollinger Bands are giving a strong entry signal. All three components have turned up. Prices remain in the upper channel and have been hugging the bands. The 20 bar moving average is indicating an uptrend, and the lower band has also turned the corner and is pointing up. If I traded Copper, I would enter this trade by attempting to get back into the longer term trend at the earliest practical moment that affords me the momentum of the market to help my cause. Any breakout of the high of a correcting bar signals an entry into the trade. For example, a breakout of the high of the correcting (retracing) bar, the last one shown on the chart, should cause entry, because for prices to take out the high of that bar would be an indication that momentum is now back in the direction of the trend. Let's see what happened to the remainder of this move. Did it work, or did it fall apart? Can a trader get a piece of the action? Will what is obtained have been worth the wait? 213
RGU 141.1'11'1 141'1.1'11'1 139.1'11'1 13B.aa 137.1'11'1 136.1'11'1 135.1'11'1 131.1'11'1 133.1'11'1 132.1'11'1 131.1'11'1 131'1.1'11'1 129.1'11'1 12B.aa 127.1'11'1 126.1'11'1 125.1'11'1 121.1'11'1 123.1'11'1 12Z.aa 121.1'11'1 121'1.1'11'1 119.1'11'1 llB.aa jd~""'''''''''Feb''''
Mar
Apr
...... ,.,"" .. " .. ,.".,",.""""1"',",,11111111 May
Jun
It turns out that it was possible to get a nice chunk of the move made in copper. Everyone has his own way of getting out of a trade. That is why I labeled the chart "exit this day or sooner." In my opinion, exit should have been made on that very day having given back less than most people. The reason I say that is because as soon as prices began making lower tops, in the way I trade I would have begun tightening my exit point by moving it closer to the price action. Of course, this gets me stopped out more often than it does someone who is willing to keep his exit stop further back. But tightening the stop when I see a decent profit for a trade has worked for me and suits my comfort level.
Notice there was no signal from the Bollinger Bands themselves. One more question comes to mind. What would have been the result had a trader stayed with the trade until the optimized exit date? Would he have done better? Worse? Won more money? Lost money?
214
HGU
entry date
"'AP~"
......... "........ ,..... ,... May
".,.J.,",.,.".,I"IIIIII~~Iilllllllll\\\,
111.1'11'1 111'1.1'11'1 139.1'11'1 13B.BB 137.00 136.1'11'1 135.1'11'1 131.1'11'1 133.1'11'1 132.1'11'1 131.1'11'1 131'1.1'11'1 129.1'11'1 12B.I'IB 127.1'11'1 126.1'11'1 125.1'11'1 121.1'11'1 123.1'11'1 122.1'11'1 121.1'11'1 121'1.1'11'1 119.1'11'1 HB.BB
un
Even using only the optimized dates, this trade ga~e you a piece of the hm:k~a:~: would have gotten out. I think that because eac ay h I think I y h e some shown were market failed to move hi~er, I would have tight~ne~ :y~op. If ~~ :~ i;~ works other way that is more sUltable to your own s~ e 0 a g. '. for you, then stay with it. Consistency is very llllportant to your tradmg.
215
216
PART III REALITY TRADING
217
218
Chapter 23
Thinking and Trading Go Together
So far in this course we have looked at a lot of definitions, rules, and techniques. My intention has been to give you a realistic look at seasonal trading. In this section we need to look at the concept of "how to trade the trade." Entry technique is all well and good, but it is only a small part of trading. A much more important aspect of trading is that of having a strategy and then deploying the tactics that will fulfill the intent of that strategy. In other words, now that you're in the trade, what do you do next? Of course, the use of seasonality is part of our strategy and the main concept behind what we've been looking at, but what are the tactics we can use to keep losses small and maximize wins? What can be discerned from careful inspection of a chart as the trade progresses? What problems might we run into during the course of a seasonal trade, etc? To bring these things to light, I am going to look at some additional seasonal trades and at least one of the trades we looked at previously. We will in effect revisit them to see how we might have improved on them. We will use outright seasonal trades because we want the use of standard bar charts. Bar charts and outright seasonals reveal the kinds of problems we are likely to encounter, whereas line-type spread charts are not subject to such problems as stop running and the perception of many other traders. We will use any or all of the tools previously discussed, only this time we will be less mechanical and more interpretive. We're going to start looking at these charts the way a trader really should view them. We want to glean all the information we can as the trade runs its course. We may bend a few rules or even 219
throw a few out, because real trading is that way. That's why I have called this section of the course REALITY TRADING. Do you remember the trade from Chapter 21 in which we had a seasonal signal to get short November Soybeans on 7117? Let's look at that market again, only this time we'll back up in time to show more of what immediately preceded the optimized entry date.
sx
..
""""."""""""I"""'~"""""" Apr
May
664.1313 6613.1313 656.1313 652.1313 646.1313 644.139 6413.139 636.139 632.1313 626.1313 624.1313 6213.1313 616.1313 612.139 6136.139 6134.1313 61313.1313 596.1313 592.1313 566.139 564.1313 5613.139 576.139 572.1313 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 Jun Jul
From this picture we see that Soybean prices had been moving sideways in a major Trading Range just before the explosive breakout day. That breakout came in conjunction with a weather scare. It could be seen in all the grains, but the one grain most affected by the news was the Soybeans, because the scare came at a time that is crucial to the growing cycle of Soybeans.
220
However, a few days later, when the scare failed to materialize, Soybeans st~ed inching back towards the former Trading Range. In fact, the gap up was qmc~y closed leaving an island reversal at the top of the chart. This represented a maSSIve pattern failure, leaving the chart as you see it below.
sx 664.139 6613.139 656.139 652.139 646.1313 644.1313 6413.139 636.139 632.99 626.139 624.139 6213.139 616.1313 612.139 696.139 6134.139 6913.139 596.1313 592.139 566.1313 564.139 5613.1313 576.139 572.1313
Although there was no way to have improved on the optimized entry date because it called the exact day of the top, the chart, without benefit of anything else, was saying, "think about getting short." The reality is, that even with the knowledge of the failure, the trade ~ould have been difficult to enter. Why'" Because unless you had entered short durmg the few days of congestion following the failure, you would have been looking at a chart like the one at the top of the next page.
221
sx
II
:Such a chart is indeed ditlicult to trade. The huge gap back into the Trading Range would unnerve most traders, leaving them confused and wondering what in the world was really going on in this market.
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The market spoke loudly and it did it seasonally but not everyone
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661.BO 66B.BO 656.BO 652.BO 618.BO 611.BO 61B.BO 636.00 632.BO 628.BB 621.BB 62B.BO 616.BB 612.BB 608.BO 601.BO 60B.BO 59f>.l'I0 592.BB 588.BO 581.BO 58B.BB 576.BB 572.BO
................................. " ..... ,., ...•. ,.... , ... ,., .. 1"" .. ""1""".,,.,1,11"'11,,1,111111111111111111111111111111111111111 Feh
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
sx The optimized exit date didn't exactly catch the lowest low, but it did pretty well. A good chart trader might have looked at that bounce and really tightened his stops when he saw the close come all the way back
II
661. BB 66B. BB
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on a large size bar like the last one shown.
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222
Jul
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572.BB
Contrarian Trading From time to time, it becomes clear that a particular market is not going to behave seasonally. What makes it clear? Unexpected backwardation, unusual weather, a known shortage, a strong trend in the direction opposite to which you would expect the market to be moving, a trending market at a time when you would normally expect prices to be in congestion, or congestion when you would normally expect a market to be trending. Obviously, this type of information precludes your being ignorant of the basic fundamentals of the market in which you are attempting to trade seasonally. At times, when it becomes clear to you that the market is behaving abnormally, it may be practical to consider trading the opposite way because the changes in fundamentals preclude any hope of using a seasonal filter. In my experience there have been a number of years in which, for one reason or another, individual markets, entire complexes, and even the majority of market groups, failed to behave seasonally. Such behavior invariably can be explained by changes in the underlying fundamentals governing supply and demand. When it becomes clear that such is the case, the seasonal trader can choose to sit on the sidelines or trade on the knowledge that trading with a seasonal filter just isn't going to work. I believe that in such situations, the reasons for trading counter-seasonally are very strong. So strong, in fact, that the probabilities for success are as great or greater than they would be for taking a seasonal trade, and most certainly greater than for just entering a market based on one's opinion or a signal from some technical indicator. I mentioned earlier that there have been years in which the underlying fundamentals precluded any reasonable expectation of seasonality. In fact, an attempt to trade using a seasonal filter would be the height of foolishness. We've looked at a few counter-seasonal spreads earlier in the course. Now let's look at a very powerful counter-seasonal move in the grains.
The move to which I refer took place in the wheat market. At the beginning of the year, worldwide wheat reserves were lower than they had been in many years. The 223
previou~
year's wheat harvest .h~d been lean, and the demand for wheat was quite strong, m part because of a surular shortage in the reserves of all grains. It was hoped that the wheat harvest would be plentiful, but for the second consecutive year, the worldwide wheat harvest was poor in both quality and quantity. In such a year, would anyone expect wheat to behave seasonally? Of course not! Wheat gave a wonderful opportunity to be a seasonal contrarian.
Let's look at a series of seasonal Wheat trades that call for selling Wheat futures to see what happened to those trades. We'll look at seasonal short trades that were called for after it became known that the Wheat harvest was going to be poor for a second consecutive year. Along with the poor condition of the crop came the knowledge that wheat reserves were lower than they had been in 40 years. This knowledge became available in early March of the year.
wu 46.000 45.500 45.000 44.500 44.000 43.500 43.000 42.500 42.000 41.500 41.000 40.500 40.000 39.500 39.01'11'1 38.500 38.1'100 31.51'10 31.01'10 36.501'1 36.01'10 35.500 35.000 34.500 ",l"
I, I . ,
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May
The first trad~ call~ for selling September Wheat during the last week of April. Comcldent WIth this trade were the following seasonally optirnized trades:
224
Sell September Wheat 2nd week in May, exit last week in May. Sell September Wheat 2nd week in May, e~t last week in June. Sell September Wheat 2nd week in May, eXl~ second week ~ July. Sell September Wheat 3rd week in May, eXlt second week m July. As you can see, all such trades failed miserably, yet the the time and no trade of this type has done worse than
Pr?n~ trade wi~s 87.% o~ Will
8010 of the tune m 1)
years.
wz 490.00 463.00 476.01'1 469.00 462.00 455.00 448.00 441.00 434.00 427.00 420.00 413.00 406.00 399.00 392.00 365.00 378.00 371.00 364.00 357.00 TAA December Wheat contract seasonal trade did not fare much better. On the 350.00 -next chart, you see it from a broader view. This was truly a demand driven market. 343.00 336.00 329.00 Exit 2nd week in July
I I I I I
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225
wz Demand overcomes what would have been a normal
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Apr
Ma.y
Jun
Jui
Aug
Sep
Qct
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I mentioned earlier that sometimes the fundamentals underlying an entire complex can cause a situation in which it is wiser to trade as a contrarian. The signal can be very strong indeed. Look at the Corn chart for the same year.
226
cz 34B.BIiI 336.BIiI 332.BIiI 328.BIiI 324.BIiI 328.BIiI 316.B8 312.88 38B.B8 384.B8 3BB.88 296.88 292.88 288.88 2B4.88 288.88 276.88 272.80 268.BIiI 264.88 268.88 256.88 252.88 248.80
Would a thinking trader take such a seasonal trade? I don't think so! There are times when every trader needs to use common sense. That is why it is important to a seasonal trader to have some knowledge of the most basic fundamentals of the markets in which he trades. Having such knowledge pays off handsomely. By his realization of the demand driving the grain markets, a trader could have made a great deal of money trading them. This is what reality trading is all about. A similar situation was found in the Soybean market during the same period.
227.
If you find that seasonals are not working well, or not working at all in a particular market, then you must find out if they have a reasonable chance of working out in related markets. This kind of thinking must be used in the grains, the Crude Oil complex, the currencies, the interest rate contracts, and the stock indices. It would be the height of folly to do otherwise. If anyone member of a complex is not behaving normally, then look to see if the same thing is happening to the other members. If you notice that the Chicago Oat contract is not behaving seasonally, you need to look with great caution at Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal. Conversely, if you see that seasonally grain contracts are making tons of money, you can be pretty sure that grains are the very markets you should trade. If you see Crude Oil behaving seasonally, then you can be fairly sure that seasonal trades in Heating Oil and Unleaded Gas will also behave seasonally. Of course, other considerations may enter the picture that will serve to break the link between Crude Oil and the rest of the complex. A very severe winter can drive Heating Oil futures to new highs despite the fact that, seasonally, Crude Oil is behaving as one might expect.
228
Chapter 24 Beware of Stop Running
One of the major differences between trading seasonal spreads and trading seasonal futures is that of stop running. The spreads, especially those that are put on one leg at a time, do not have that problem. A chief advantage of spreads is that no one but yourself need know that you are holding a particular position. However, this advantage is not available to the seasonal futures trader. He is totally exposed to the vagaries of stop running. What Constitutes Stop Running?
Stop running, or "stop fishing" as it is sometimes known, generally, but not necessarily, involves action by the locals on the floor. The "strong hands," in order. to drive out the "weak hands" in the market, are also know to run stops. Such actIOn is commonly known as a "squeeze." The majority of locals are scalpers trading for only a few ticks. It is important for you to realize that when order flow into the pit dries up, markets do not trend nor do they exhibit very much movement. Trends do not originate among the locals on the floor. Typical action by the floor traders is that of trying to scalp out a few ticks from very short term price moves. The floor traders call this action "picking each other's pockets." Real moves in the market invariably come from orders originating off the floor. This order flow from non-locals is generally referred to as "paper."
229
It is paper that moves the market. Until paper comes into the market, it will not move much. Paper is what creates the bunching of orders that enables the locals to move a market from one point to another. I can best show you this with a couple of pictures. Assuming the open in Chicago as shown, we see that the market subsequently moved to the indicated high. At the high, some traders shorted the market. . 7£181 Their stops will be located just above the morning high. That is where the .7£182 paper is. There is also paper below the market as stops would naturally .7£18£1 accumulate belowthll.se points. THINKl Where .7£178
_-~~P~_Y:::1TOM
S)bl~11 i :~
-f
t1\t hi
Chicago open---,
r
I
_-Jiff
15 minute D-Mark/
11
-
j
-Stops
J-_I-
In 1111111111, 2
~:~~
ltLtops: .7£16£1 .7£158 .7£156 .7£151 .7£152 .7£15£1
dd37,... ,,,8 ........... ,.... ,. ,..... ,... 011015 ".,.,6 01111., ...7" .. , 8.illl/I/IIIIIIIII/IIIIIII"I. 91111'11 2 3 4 9 11'1
.7£118 .7£146 .7£141 .7£142 .7£14£1
.7£138
If you were a local on the floor looking for only a few ticks to scalp for profit, where would you look first? You know there is paper (order tickets) just below you. That means if you sell, there are sell stops below you to guarantee that when you buy back you can unload your short position profitably. It remains only for you to determine your sell point. This will probably be decided by the action you witness around you on the floor. To me it looks as though there would be more sell stops in the market than there would be buy stops. This is because most of the early action has been to the upside. The buyers, since the open, have outnumbered the sellers, and therefore are protecting their long positions with sell stops. 230
Conversely, there are some buy stops above you, placed there by those who sho~ed the morning high. By the way, those fly-speck looking price bars are from trading on the very thin Globex Exchange during the Asian and European sessions. If you are able to watch the price action intra-day you will see that if stop fishing is taking place, you will generally see an extra long bar that takes out the stops, and then either reverses direction immediately or reverses direction on the very next bar. It looks like thiS: DM
5 Minute
- -- - -_--- J---__ -1
-i
.7£181 .7£182 .7£1S£I .7£178 .7£176 .7£171 .7£172 .7£17£1 .7£168 .7066 .71'164 .7£162 .7£16£1 .7£158 .7£156 .7£151 .7£152 .7£15£1 .71348 .7£146 .7£144 .7£112 .7£14£1 .7£138
Interestingly, you will see the same price pattern on daily charts. As a ~easonal trader you are most interested in daily charts. So let's look at the same thing happening there.
231
Stop running on the daily chart usually involves a larger number of contracts because there is more time for paper to accumulate. That is why in Trading by the Minute I said that the taking out of yesterday's high or low was a major event for a daytrader. It is even more important when the highest high or lowest low of the last three days is taken out. In any case, the price action looks the same.
DM .744B . 74BB . 736B •73ZB .?ZBB .7Z4B . ?ZBB .716B .71ZB .7BBB .7B4B .7BBB .696B .6'3ZB .6BBB .6B4B .6BBB .676B .672B .66BB . 664B . 66BB . 656B . 652B
.. ,.... Sep ,..... ,"1111111,"'"1'Oct 111111111111111"'"Nou 1 You've seen it, what are you going to do about it? Where will you place your stop if you see a market breakout during a seasonal window where you have an entry signal? Perhaps a better question would be when should you place your stop in the market in light of the problem of stop running?
232
The Importance of Second Time Through Stop running takes place simply because that is where the paper is. When a preponderance of orders are available at a certain price, it is just a matter of time until the market fills those orders. Let's face it, that's why markets exist. The markets are there to fill orders. The more orders that can be filled in a market at popular prices, the more that market is considered to be efficient. When orders are filled you have price discovery, and that is what futures is all about, isn't it? In light of the knowledge that bunched orders are going to be filled, how can you defend yourself against this kind of action?
The answer to that question is to do the opposite of what we did with spreads where, in defending ourselves, we dropped one side. It is something I've already introduced earlier in the course - we hedge. Remember, the markets were created for hedgers . When we are positioned in a trade and we suspect that a bit of stop fishing is going to take place, or that we may be facing a seasonal anomaly, we place a hedge stop in the market. A hedge stop gets us stopped into a spread rather than stopped out of a market. We then wait hedged until the stops have been run. Once they have been run, and we are sure the market is going our way, we can lift our hedge and hold a position in the market. If the first time through is a real move, and we are convinced that it is, then we act as a contrarian and reverse our position. We do this by liquidating the original position and staying with the position we put on as a hedge . If what I've just stated leaves you puzzled then re-read it until you understand it. This concept may be one of the most important things you will ever learn about trading. We are talking here about the "thinking" person's way to trade. If you think you do understand, then continue on because next I'm going to go through a chart example of what I'm talking about.
Revisiting a Wheat Trade
233
Do you recall one of the seasonal Wheat futures trades of the previous chapter? It called for getting short September Wheat approximately the last week of April with a proposed exit in the second week of July. Let's look at it close up. Let's simply take the optimized entry date and optimized exit date for this trade. We'll use no confirming chart pattern, no technical indicator, no filter of any kind. Why? Because I want to show you how to turn a lemon into lemonade.
wu
:~~::~::.":.'::..':.:~~"!~ 'W-~r;p j\V1Ill( 11/\
[I h )ljl t )it} -
Jan
tif if
11)
stop? We look at the spreads!
36.458 36.300 36.158 36.888 35.858 35.788 35.558 35.488 35.258 35.188 34.958 34.888 34.658 34.588 34.358 34.288 34.858 33.988 33.758 33.688 33.458 33.388 33.158 33.888
... "."., .. , .... , . 00" .. ,,,.,,,,,1,,,,,,,1'1111111111,1111'1111111111111 Feb
Mar
A r
We want to use another month in the market for a possible hedge in case we are wrong about this trade. To do so, we will look to see which spread, if any, is the most favorable to us. We will look at WNIWU and WZJWU.
234
WNIWU
-8.3288 -8.3488 -8.3608 -8.3888 -0.4808 -0.4208 -0.4408 -0.4608 -0.4898 -8.5888 -8.5280 -8.5488 -8.5688 -8.5880 -8.0080 -8.0280 -8.0480 -8.0688 -8.0888 -0.7880 -8.7208 -8.7488 -8.7688 -8.7808
J
"11"",,, ",,11.11 dill, 1111, ,11., """"11 1IIIMIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIlpl 11111111111111 Jan
Feb
ar
W'UWU
Based on the chart pattern W'lJWU looks stronger to me. A bottom in the spread seems to be in place in the form of a Trading Range. 1
.......... ,.. ,','., .. ,', .. ,....... ".,.",,'1,1'11.11'111'11,1111'IAllIl,dlllllllllll Jan
Feb
Mar
235
pr
-2955.88 -2978.88 -2985.80 -3888.88 -3815.80 -3830.80 -3845.88 -3808.80 -3875.88 -3898.80 -3185.80 -3120.80 -3135.88 -3158.80 -3105.00 -3188.88 -3195.08 -3218.80 -3225.88 -3248.88 -3255.80 -3278.88 -3285.88 -3388.08
Since we decided to use December Wheat as our possible hedge, we will look at the December Wheat contract to place our hedge stop.
wz 37&.59 375.88 373.58 372.88 378.59 3&9.88 3G7.59 36&.89 304.59 3&3.89 3&1.59 3&9.89 358.59 357.89 355.59 354.89 352.59 351.89 349.59 318.89 34&.58 345.99 313.58 342.89
You can see the similarity of the December Wheat chart with that of the September Wheat chart. The higher price of December Wheat was because of the greater interest and carrying charges attributable to December being further from delivery than September. We also can see that there was no backwardation in effect at this time.
236
The outright short in WU made money for a couple of days, but then prices reversed and took out the high in the September contract.
The high (not shown) in the December contract was also taken out, and so on the first day of May the trade was stopped into a hedged position WZIWU. Was this a continuation of the trend that is now becoming apparent, or was this simply stop running? We'll take a look at the market as prices progressed. Right now, I want to show you what the spread looked like at the time we were stopped into our hedge.
237
Wl1WU
Entry pointfor hedge
I III1111 I11 I11 I ............. ,.. " .... " ... ,..... """"",tI.lilll,,,IIIIIIIIIIIIIIILd Jan
Feb
Mu
Apr
-2955.99 -2979.99 -2985.99 -3999.99 -3915.99 -3939.99 -3945.99 -3969.99 -3975.99 -3999.99 -3195.99 -3129.99 -3135.99 -3159.99 -3165.99 -3189.99 -3195.99 -3219.99 -3225.99 -3249.99 -3255.99 -3279.99 -3285.99 -3399.99
May
The entry point for the SJ)read indicates that if remained hedged, we may have lost on the hedge. As prices broke out in both contracts, September Wheat gained on December Wheat. At this point, it remains to be seen whether or not we would wish to remain hedged, drop the hedge in favor of long December Wheat, or in favor of short September Wheat.
238
Next comes an important part of our analysis. We have reversal of trend on the breakout day, the following day, or even the day after that. This would lead us to believe that there was more to this breakout than merely stop running. When prices finally do reverse, we suspect that a correction is taking place and that prices will go higher. A correction is different from stop running. A correction points to an eventual continuation of the trend. You can see that a trend has formed. This market was going up. Admittedly, it is choppy, but overall the move is up.
wu 37.299 37.999 36.899 36.699 36.499 36.290 36.900 35.800 35.690 35.490 35.299 35.000 34.890 34.690 34.499 34.209 34.090 33.800 33.699 33.490 33.299 33.090 32.800 32.699 jan
.... , ..... , ....... , ...... , .......... 1. 111.".,1111111111111111111111111111111111111 Feb
Ma.r
Apr
Now let's look at the position of our hedge on this same day.
239
May
By remaining hedged from the time prices broke out and stopped us into the spread, the most the trade was down was 30 ticks, or $375.00 W71WU
-297B.BB -2985.BB -3BBB.BB -3B15.BB -3B3B.BB -3B45.BB -3B6B.BB -3B75.BB -3B9B.BB -31B5.BB -312B.BB -3135.BB -315B.BB -3165.BB -318B.BB -3195.BB -321B.BB -3225.BB -324B.BB ... -3255.BB Obviously, we took some /~ -327B.BB -3285.BB heatbetweenhere~_ -33BB.BB -3315.BB ............... ,.. "., .. , .... , ..... ",."".".",.,.,".1, .• 11111111.1111.,111111111111111111 Jdn
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Believing that this is a correction and not just stop running, our decision is to drop the hedge in favor of a long December position the next time September prices move outside the local (most recent) high. We note the price where a breakout of the local high took place in the September contract. We then place a buy order in the market at that price level.
240
Here's how the market looked the day the hedge was dropped. The price at which the short September Wheat was liquidated was determined in advance.
wu
t, \VlrV111\ i\ ill \J I J) ! 14\IA~ IIII } l1frlfu ~t t \
\
III
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14 }tU lllll \j
'jan ., .• ,.". ,.. ,.. 'F'eb' ,', .. " .. ".
M~~"'" 1", III.IIII.~~~. IIIIIIIIIIIII~~~ I11
37.2BB 37.BBB 36.8BB 36.6BB 36.4BB 36.2BB 36.BBB 35.8BB 35.6BB 35.4BB 35.2BB 3S.BBB 34.8BB 34.6BB 34.4BB 34.2BB 34.BBB 33.8BB 33.6BB 33.4BB 33.2BB 33.BBB 32.8BB 32.6BB
I
Since we were still within the time window for this market to trade short September, we would plan to hedge our now long December position by shorting September on any day in which prices close at the level of stop we are willing to risk. In other words, if we are willing to risk $400 on this trade, we will hedge the position as close to that amount as possible. If we are willing to risk $500, we will hedge the position as close to that amount as we possibly can. We'll remain hedged until the market gives a clear cut signal as to which way it is actually going to go.
241
Here's the way the spread looked at the time it was dropped in favor of a long December position. The hedge had lost about 6 ticks, or $75. WlJWU -2971'1.1'10 -2985.1'11'1 -31'11'11'1.01'1 -31'115.1'11'1 -31'131'1.1'11'1 -31'145.00 -31'161'1.1'10 -31'175.1'11'1 -31'191'1.1'10 -3105.1'10 -3121'1.1'11'1 -3135.00 -3151'1.00 -3165.1'10 -3180.1'10 -3195.1'10 -3210.1'10 -3225.1'10 -3240.00 -3255.00 -3270.09 -3285.1'19 -3390.1'19 -3315.09
The trade was long December Wheat. For the sake of this example, let's assume we are willing to risk $400. At that amount of risk we never again would have to hedge this trade. The most it went against us was $375.
242
From the close at the optimized entry date until the close on the optimized exit date, there were 63.25 points available, or $3,162.50. Obviously we would not have gotten all of the available money. We did not filter this trade, which could have made it better or worse. We also did not trail a stop, which would no doubt have made possible the extraction of more of the available profit. We also did not allow the trade to run as far as it might ultimately have gone. Once it became clear that this was a bonafide move with strong underlying fundamentals, I would have a tendency to trail my stop two natural support areas behind. In other words, each time prices break to a new high, I move my stop so that it rests just below the low of the second to last retracement. In that event, I would not have been stopped out at any time during the course of the trend shown.
wz 46B.00 462.00 456.00 459.90 444.00 438.00 432.00 426.80 420.80 414.00 408.B0 402.00 396.00 390.B0 384.09 37B.00 372.00 366.00 360.00 354.00 34B.00 342.00 336.00 330.00
243
Let'~ take.a final look at this December Wheat contract at a time just a few days before
It
expIred. The trade has an interesting end.
wz
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~}{ {
{+l1H(
111i
~ ~ l\+tllTl
J{ f fHt
tf~1J4}J
~
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.,Wnd _'"
j
11111.11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
<
51&.BB 51B.BB 5B4.BB 49B.B0 49Z.B0 4B&.B0 4B0.00 474.00 46B.aa 46z.aa 456.aa 45a.aa 444.00 436.a0 43z.aa 42&.B0 4za.aa 414 .aa 4aB.aa 4az.aa 39&.aa 39a.a0 364.a0 37B.aa
tlou
You see the first and second natural support area. You also see the day the stops at the s~c?nd natural support. area were taken out. Look closely at that day. Notice that It IS an ~xtra .long daIly bar. Now notice what happened the following day You guessed It, pnces reyersed. The strong hands in the market, not the locals, r~ the stops. There must have been a considerable amount of paper accumulated beneath tha~ second nam:al support area. Notice that once those stops were run Wheat pnces never agam went that low. ' There ~e tinres when there is no way to stop the strong hands from doing this The only thing th~t could have been done would have been to use a hedge stop ~ather than a protective s~op. The hedge st.op would have kept you in the market until you were sure as to which way It was ultunately going to go. A knowledge of the fundamentals would have encouraged you to use a hedge stop in this particular situation.
244
Next, I am going to describe a few events that can mess up the best of trades. We need to be aware of these events and we need to know what to do when they happen. The solution is the same for all events, and it is one that we've already discussed a number of times throughout this course.
Reports Various entities put out various reports at various times. Some of these reports have a great inrpact on the futures markets and can cause them to go somewhat berserk for a period varying from a few minutes to several days, on up to a few weeks. The Crop Report can cause the grains to react violently. The Cattle on Feed Report can cause wild gyrations in the Live Cattle futures, and the Pig Report can cause similar gyrations in the Live Hog futures.
I have seen the American Petroleum Institute CAPI) Report cause the Crude Oil Complex to go wild. A meeting by the OPEC cartel can causes a comparable wild reaction in this complex. Government economic reports, speeches by government officials and dignitaries, and proposed actions and speeches by central banks and their spokesmen can cause huge fluctuations in the currency, interest rate, and stock index futures. Picture yourself safely ensconced in a winning seasonal trade when one of these reports come out. Can you imagine losing all your winnings because of the reaction to a report? It happens many tinres! How do you protect yourself, what do you do?
Options Expiration Another event that can cause frantic short term futures trading to take place is the day that options are due to expire. Why? Because the large firms that write most of the options are not willingly going to let them expire in-the-money! When options writers are overwhelmingly short a particular strike price, and futures prices are challenging their position at or close to options expiration day, these large firms can muster an army of traders to buy or sell futures in an attempt to drive futures prices away from the threatened strike so the options will expire worthless. Similarly, when at or near options expiration day it becomes apparent to these large frrms that they cannot defend a particular strike price, they may attempt to move the market away from the threatened strike just long enough for them to enter the futures ahead 245
of the endangered strike, and then reverse their futures position. From their now winning futures position, they can explode prices through the formerly threatened strike in an effort to drive prices high enough or low enough to cause options premiums at further-out strikes to become exceedingly high. At that point they will sell additional options at very high prices to go along with their winning futures trades. Let me give you an example of each situation. Suppose that on expiration day, T-Bond futures prices are approaching an even numbered strike above the market. Suppose also that there is a very large open interest in the Calls at that strike. The large traders and large firms who have written those Calls do not want them to expire in-the-money. They will sell futures in an attempt to drive prices down so that the options will expire out of the money. Suppose that two days prior to options expiration day Soybean futures prices are collapsing and moving strongly toward a very large number of Puts written by commercial interests. Suppose also that those interests realize that they cannot stop the collapsing prices in Soybean futures. These large firms can attempt to get short futures ahead of the threatened strike. If prices have already reached the threatened strike, they may enter the market long by buying large amounts of futures contracts. They may attempt to drive prices upward and away from the threatened strike just long enough for them to short futures ahead of the short Puts. If they are able to accomplish this, they are now in a winning position. There is no way for them to lose on the short Puts and they no longer care if those Puts finish in the money. To amplify their winnings, they may sell considerably more futures contracts than they bought in their effort to drive the market away from the threatened Puts. This extra selling will cause more distant Put strikes to rise exceedingly in premium. The added selling causes great volatility in the market and options premiums rise markedly irt response to increased volatility. The large firms may then choose to take advantage of those extra high premiums by writing more Puts at inflated prices, far below the current market. Is it wrong for the large firms to do this? Wouldn't you do the same if you had the capability? When they act in this manner, the large firms are simply being astute in business. Maybe that's how they got to be large firms in the first place. They have a strategy and those are the tactics they are using to carry out their strategy.
246
There you are in your winning seasonal futures trade. You are an ant and they are the elephants. What happens to the ants when the elephants stampede? Your winning position can be turned into a loser in a short time. Wha~ do y?U ~o? What can you do? Think for a moment! We have already covered It earher ID the course. Here's a hint. The futures markets serve a purpose that enables people to - - - ?
Holidays
~Vic, a large trader in the Japanese Yen, had a plan. The markets
Volatility would be closed Friday for a holiday. Vic knew that on Thursday, ahead of the holiday, the market would be very thin. In fact, many traders would not even show up, because they wanted to get a head start on the holiday. On Wednesday, minutes before the close, Vic began to sell Yen futures. He sold a number of contracts and a bank stepped in and bought them. He then sold a larger number of contracts, and another buyer faded his order. He sold even more contracts on his next offer. The Bank of Japan bought those. His next offer was larger yet. At that point, Yen futures broke. The market collapsed and Yen future.s went crashing down. The Bank of Japan took a terrible hit. During the close, VIC covered his shorts and went home flat. It was a great day for Vic. The next day, the day before the holiday, the market was even lower. During the night, .c~e~cy traders worldwide picked up on Vic's momentum and bashed the Yen, drivmg It further down. On Thursday, knowing the futures market would be thin, Vic showed up and began buying huge amounts of Yen. Yen futures rose in response to his buying. Vic bought fast and furiously at different times throughout the trading hours. ~y the time the market was to close, the Yen was considerably higher than where It had closed the previous day. Vic unloaded his long futures and went home happily flat. The preceding incident is based on a true story. I've changed the details just enough so that you will not know who it was and in which market it happened.
What if you had a winning seasonal long Yen futures position when Vic decided to short futures just before the Wednesday close? You would have seen all or most of your profits disappear. You may even have sustained a considerable loss. What could you have done? How would you protect yourself?
Hedging With Spreads
247
The solution to all of the. described situations is to learn to spread ahead of these events. When you know that a report is due out that will affect your trade, hedge by spreading. When you know that you are within a few days of options expiration, and futures prices are threatening an options strike price having a relatively large open interest, hedge by spreading. When you know you are within a few days of a holiday in which the markets will be closed, hedge by spreading. The professional traders "even-up" their positions before such events. Shouldn't you? The financial futures can become very quiet two to three days ahead of a major report. Why? Because the professional traders, those who do the majority of trading, will get themselves relatively flat waiting for the report to come out. Professional traders know better than to be in a market a day or two ahead of a holiday. If they retain a position, they spread it so they cannot be hurt. Knowledgeable professionals are acutely aware of options expiration dates. If they continue to hold a position, they protect it by offsetting in some manner. Shouldn't you do the same? The most money is made in the markets by those who are able to maintain a position for many days, weeks, or months. My very best student carried a long position in the S&P 500 for at least six years. During those years he made a fortune. At the time of this writing and to the best of my knowledge he is still long, going into his seventh year. His stop is such that there is no way he can lose. But prior to that time, he regularly hedged in the NYFE stock index futures. My very first student made over one million dollars in T-Bond futures. He held 100 contracts for over five months. He never allowed himself to be stopped out. Until he could maintain a stop at a considerable distance from the current price action, he regularly hedged in the T-Note futures. He hedged ahead of reports, holidays, and options expiration days. He dropped his hedges only when he was convinced that T -Bonds were moving higher. At times he made money incrementally simply by being short the NOB. Earlier in this course I showed you a 500 point day in the Japanese Yen. I also showed you that had you been spread, the amount of heat you would have taken was considerably less than the devastation you would have suffered in the outright futures. 248
Now I want to show you three Live Hog charts I simply chose at random. They all show February Live Hogs because that's what you would have been trading in December. Live Hogs are a thin market at any time. The last day of trading before Christmas the market is extremely thin. I have watched this market since the day it began trading. I don't like to trade it other than with options positions. These charts will serve to show you how a thin market can be run, first one way and then the other. They will also serve to demonstrate to you what can happen just before a holiday. The three charts are typical of Live Hog price movements just prior to Christmas. You might find it interesting to check many charts in various markets over a .period of many years to see what happens to prices the last trading day before Christmas. Get set for a shock if you do. Then you might try looking at all markets the day of a major report, and from now on, observe what happens on ?ptions expirati?n day when strikes having major open interest are threatened. ObVIOusly I cannot mclude hundreds of such charts in this course. However, I guarantee that you will have a major eye-opening experience if you undertake to do as I've suggested. The Hog charts follow.
249
LHG
51.000 50.500 50.000 49.500 49.000 48.500 48.000 47.509 47.909 46.500 46.000 45.500 45.039 44.509 44.003 43.500 43.009 42.500 42.000 41.509 41.000 40.500 40.000 39.500
This particular year, theJast trading day before Christmas was December 21. The market gapped down on the open and traded down briefly before heading higher. The locals ran the market from one extreme to the other creating an outside day. This is typical of the kind of price action you will see in many markets on the trading day before a holiday.
250
LHG
30.25B 30.008 29.75B 29.508 29.25B 29.008 2B.75B 28.50B 2B.25B 2B.00B 27.758 27.508 27.25B 27.f!SB 26.758 26.508 26.25B 26.008 25.75B 25.50B 25.258 25.00B 24.758 24.508
This year the locals on the floor really had themselves a party. They opened the market with a tremendous 100 point gap (limit is 150 pointS). They filled all the buy stops above the preceding double high right at the open. Then they shorted the market for most of the day badly burning all the longs. As you can see, they didn't do too badly for themselves on the first trading day after Christmas, or the two days following. The last down day in their series was??? You might have guessed it December 31, the next thin day prior to a trading holiday.
251
LHG 21.250 21.000 20.750 20.599 20.250 20.000 19.750 19.500 19.250 19.000 18.750 18.500 18.250 18.000 17.750 17.500 17.250 17.000 16.750 16.500 16.250 16.000 15.758 15.500
In the year above, the locals must have been tired of running stops on the long side. This time they nailed all the sell stops at the open. However, they must have been feehng the Christmas spirit of generosity and giving, because it could have been a lot worse. After filling all the sell stops, they could have then taken the market up doing just the reverse of what we saw on the previous page.
252
Chapter 25 Carrying Charge Spreads
There is a type of spread that is seasonal in a somewhat different manner from all other seasonal spreads. The carrying charge spread is in season whenever a certain situation occurs. I don't believe there is any service in particular that can give you accuracy statistics for carrying charge spreads. Few traders know about them, but there is a seasonal situation in which it pays to investigate them.
Sure Thing Spreading The carrying charge spread is as close to a sure thing as one can get when conditions for trading it are right. They are especially worthwhile investigating: 1.) in a prolonged bear market. 2.) when it is likely that interest rates will fall. Therefore, I especially look for them in conjunction with the fact that seasonality indicates an outright seasonal short position for a particular market. To trade this kind of spread you will have to do a bit of leg work. You will have to ascertain the prime rate of interest, and the amount being charged for storage and insurance for each market in which you wish to take a position.
What Are Carrying Charges? Storable commodities, grain complex, cotton, frozen concentrated orange juice, metals, energy complex, cocoa, and coffee are examples of commodities that sustain carrying charges.
253
Carrying charges are made up of interest, storage, handling, and insurance, with interest charges being by far the greatest part of the cost of carry. Some currencies, interest rate futures, and stock indices have carrying charges, but these markets are not storable commodities. At the time a futures contract expires and delivery is to take place, the full costs of carrying the commodity will be incurred and have to be paid in cash. What Is a Carrying Charge Spread? A canying charge spread involves the differential between two futures contracts of the same commodity, but calling for delivery in different months. For instance, the spread differential between October and December Soybean Oil is, at least in part, made up of the difference in carrying charges. In a normal market, the distant month would be at a higher price than the nearby month. Carrying charge spreads are usually undertaken in a normally priced market, but can become more profitable in a market that subsequently goes into backwardation. Normally the progression of prices for storable commodities is that distant months tend to carry higher prices than nearby months. This progression of prices is called the contango. Backwardation, you may recall, is when the normal progression of prices becomes inverted. If the price for the distant month is equal to or greater than the price for the near month plus the carrying charge for the period between, the spread is considered to be a "full-carry" spread. In actual practice, carrying charge spreads seldom exceed 80% of full carry because the commercial traders are able to borrow at less than the prime rate of interest. How Do You Trade a Carrying Charge Spread? I mentioned earlier that these spreads work best in prolonged bear markets. Therefore, I look for seasonal short positions in markets that are already moving down at the time. If an outright seasonal futures trade calls for selling a commodity, and that commodity is already in a downtrend, a carrying charge spread will be an almost "sure thing" trade. In such a situation, I buy the nearby month and sell the distant month. If I am able to sell the distant month at or near full carry to the nearby month, the chances for failure are extremely slim. The risk is about as low as it is possible to get when trading futures. I have the filter of seasonality working in my favor, and unless some unusual or unexpected event occurs that would suddenly cause the situation to change, the carrying charge spread is going to work. The profits from such a trade are good and the
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risk is very low. If the trade is working, I will hold onto it until first notice day in the nearby month but no more than a day or two thereafter. I don't want to run the risk of being delivered upon. If the trade does nothing at all, I will drop it and eat the commissions and fees for having entered the trade. As the spread gets closer to full carry, it attracts more traders, mostly commercials who are acutely aware of these spreads and buy the nearby contract while selling the distant contract. The buying causes upward pressure on the nearby contract, and downward pressure on the distant contract. The spread will then narrow or move away from full carry. Since I am long the nearby contract and short the distant contract, with the nearby contract gaining on the distant contract, I am making money. Carrying Charge Spread Advantages The carrying charge spread has all the advantage of spreading. In particular, nobody has any idea what it is that you are doing, not even the traders at a spread desk. No one is going to run your stops. You can enter such spreads in virtually every market that incurs carrying charges, even markets like cotton and orange juice. They are especially good in the metals, because with metals interest rate make up close to 99% of the costs of carry. If taken in conjunction with a seasonal short in a downtrend, you will encounter spreads that go as close to full carry as they can possibly go, and may, in extremely rare cases, go beyond full carry because of bearish sentiment. Ideally, we want to see the development of backwardation because usually when that happens, the near month will begin gaining on the distant! Carrying Charge Spread Risks As mentioned earlier, the carrying charge spread is typically done when you expect interest rates to fall. The risk in a carrying charge spread is that there may be a sudden upward surge in interest rates or that nothing at all will happen to interest rates. Such situations seldom occur in bear markets, but be aware that when trading, anything can and does happen. If conditions suddenly change, liquidate the trade. Keep your losses small. Computing Carrying Charges A bit of research is involved in computing carrying charges. I always call my broker or the exchange to find out the current costs of storage and insurance. For interest rates, I figure 1% over prime. Of course, the commercial interests are able to obtain lower interest rates than I % over prime, and that is why you seldom see more than
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80% of full carry by the time you have to liquidate the spread. The commercial interests are often able to borrow at fed funds rate, which is usually lower than the prime rate. Interest is computed on the entire amount of the contract. For example, if Soybean Oil is trading at .2500, the contract is worth $15,000 (60,000 pounds x .2500), and the prime rate is 9%, then you would determine the interest to be 10% (1 point over prime) of $15,000 or $1,500, or $125 per month. If your broker tells you that the cost of storage and insurance is 10 points per contract per month, then storage and insurance for a Soybean Oil contract is going to be $60 (10 points x $6) per month. Let's assume you had an outright seasonal trade in Soybean Oil that called for you to short the May contract. You look and you see that May Bean Oil is already in a downtrending market, and is priced at .2500. You notice that the July contract is also in a downtrend. You find out that on the day of entry, interest rates, storage, and msurance are as stated above, and that interest is going to cost $1,500. $1,500 divided by 12 months means that interest is $125 per month. You determine that the rest of the overhead will be at $60 a month for the May contract. At the time of entry, there is no backwardation in the market. You look at the July contract and you see that it is trading at .2535. The July contract is going to run two months longer than the May contract. You compute the following: May Soybean Oil: 60,000 Lbs. x .2500 = $15,000 = value of May contract 10% x $15,000 = $1,500112 = $125 = monthly interest on one Ba contract. 10 points x $6 point for Bean Oil = $60 = monthly overhead for one Ba contract. 2 months x $60 = $120 = total overhead for two months for one Ba contract. 2 months x $125 = $250 = total interest for two months for one Ba contract. $15,000 + $250 + 120 = $15,370 the theoretical price of full carry if May were to be carried an extra two months. $15,370/60,000 Lbs. = .2562, the theoretical price per pound for July Bean Oil. July Soybean Oil is at .2535, therefore the spread would be at 56.45% of full carry. The July contract's value at the time of entry is $15,210. Full carry is equal to .0062. The actual difference is .0035. Therefore, May vs. July is 56.45% of full carry (.0035/ .0062 = .5645 offull carry). 256
When to Use the Carrying Charge Spread Carrying Charge Spreads are a way to incrementally pick the pocket of ~e market. You will have little competition when you trade them. They may be espeCIally good for traders who have difficulty in shorting a market in a downtrend. The carrying charge spread is used to profit from a change in carrying charges. Storage and insurance costs are small in the costs of carry. This is particularly true in the calculation of carrying costs for the gold and silver, where storage and insurance comprise about 1% of the costs of carry. Any change in carrying costs can, for all practical purposes, be attributed to a change in borrowing costs. A carrying charge spre~d. is a way of managing a change in interest rates. Gold and silver are ideal commodlt1es to trade as a spread because of their direct relationship to interest rates. Our example will be a spread using silver. Assuming an existing downtrend, and a seasonal short is called for, to trade this spread effectively you must make a judgment on the direction of interest rates. Suppose the prime lending rate is at 10%. If you thought interest rates were going to decline, you could attempt to profit from this decline by using a carrying charge spread. For instance, you could short a distant month because it would not cost as much to finance the metal in the future as it does in the present. You would go long a nearby contract, expecting the spread to narrow as rates declined. Let's say that the prime rate fell to 8%. The following table shows the result.
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Example of Carrying Charge Spread In Silver
Date June
January
Action
Futures Price per Ounce
Profit/(Loss) per Ounce
Buy one 5,000 ounce December Silver contract
$5.75
SeJI one 5,000 ounce February Silver contract
$592
Sell one 5,000 ounce December Silver contract
$4.85
($0.90)
Buy one 5,000 ounce February Silver contract
$4.97
$0.95)
$005
$005
Total Profit/(Loss)
~250
Iler sllread
Seasonally or not, when you see a bear market, take a look at entering a Carrying Charge Spread. If nothing else, you wiIllearn a good deal more about how markets work than you ever previously knew.
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Chapter 26 Converting Daytrades to Spreads
Question: Why would anyone want to convert a daytrade into a spread? Answer: Because at times it is good sensible business to do so! Question: Isn't it true that daytraders have to be out of the market by the close? Answer: No! Question: What possible benefit can you gain by spreading off on a day trade? Answer: You can hedge a position until you are more certain which way the market will go! You can drop the hedge intraday or you can keep your position hedged up overnight. Question: Why not just get out of a trade you are not sure of and reenter later? Answer: You probably won't enter later or you might not be able to enter later! The reality of trading is that rules are made to be broken. Will it hurt your feeling of security to convert a daytrade into a spread, perhaps one you even hold overnight? There is no law against holding a daytrade overnight. There is no law against converting it to a spread and holding the spread until you are more certain of market direction. It's a lot better than moving your stop further back to "give the market more room??!!"
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Allow me to relate to you one of the most inane statements I've ever heard made by a professional trader. He said, "Joe, I'm entirely into daytrading now. I just could not stand leaving all that money lying on the table." It is my opinion, after having traded almost every way imaginable way for close to four decades, including over twelve years of daytrading like a mad fool, that it is the daytrader who leaves the most money on the table. I am not knocking daytrading. It has its place among the trading tools that are available to be mastered by any trader who is inclined to do so. I'm not even against daytrading all day long, if that suits your emotional and psychological makeup. However, when a daytrader is holding a winning position at the end of the day, why should he let go of that position? Is it because the rules in his mind say he has to? Is it because he doesn't want to make additional money that may be available by staying with the trade? Is it because he feels sorry for his broker, the NFA, and the exchanges, and wants make an offering to them of additional commissions and fees? Perhaps the daytrader is afraid to hold his position overnight? Yes! That may be it!! He is driven by fear. Yet, every hedger knows that spreading off the risk can greatly reduce the impact of any calamity which might take place in a market overnight. The locals in the trading pits understand how to spread off, and their positions are usually a lot shorter in duration than that of a daytrader. I've already shown how a hedged trade in the Yen could have easily withstood a 500 point move. I can think of dozens of examples in which limit moves occurred in markets where I, as a daytrader, had hedged my position and safely rode out the wild gyrations of a market gone seemingly insane. I have entered tight markets with both long and short positions, through different accounts at different brokerages. In other words, I've entered the market absolutely flat waiting for the inevitable break to one side or the other. "But," you say, "Why not simply get long when the market breaks to the upside, or get short when the market breaks to the downside?" The answer is that the move may be such that you cannot get in! The move may be such that it startles you and your fear or caution will not let you in. However, 260
except in the case of a limit move, you can drop the wrong side of the trade and keep the winning side. If you are long D-Marks at the CME, and at the end of the day you are in a winning position, you can create a perfect hedge by shorting two D-Mark contracts at the Mid-Am. If during the night the D-Mark moves 200 points in a direction that would have been against you, you will not be hurt because you are flat. You are equally long and short. When you are finally convinced that the D-Mark is going to continue to move, which is entirely possible because of the momentum behind the move, all you have to do is drop the losing side of the trade and keep the winning side. If you are short Soybeans and have a winning trade at the end of trading, why not spread off on another month? You can buy a back month contract and have an almost perfect hedge. Who knows, with a little luck and planning you may even make money on the spread? You say, "But if I hold Soybeans overnight I will be held to full margin and I can't afford that. My account is not big enough." I say, "For an overnight spread in Soybeans, your account may very well be big enough!" At a time when Soybean margin was $1,350 per contract, spread margin was $500. Even the S&P 500 can be spread for holding ovemight. Granted, S&P 500 back months are very thinly traded. But you can usually find enough traders to lock in a spread. At least you can try. The volume may be 500 contracts, or it may be 1500 contracts. At a time when S&P 500 margins were $9,000 per contract, S&P spread margins were only $490!! That's right, only $490. Surely anyone daytrading the S&P 500 can come up with that much margin. What exactly are the advantages of hedging a daytrade? For the price of a commission, you can buy more time. The advantage is tactical in that you may not have been able to enter a particular trade, but by being already in the market you can decide when and which side to drop. The advantage is psychological if you find it easier to drop a position rather than enter a position. (There are many traders who fit this description.) 261.
The advantage can be financial if the spread begins to outperfonn the outright futures position. Of course, this will never happen in cases of a perfect hedge. It seems strange to me that futures traders have not seen this way of trading as a viable tactic. Yet it is commonly done among options traders. It is not a big problem for an options trader to buy both an at -the-money Put and Call, and when the market breaks to drop one or the other and thus be either long or short the market via an option. The identical situation can be achieved by a futures trader having two accounts. I have even heard of a futures trader having two accounts with the same broker. He did it so he could be both long and short at the same time. His broker was aware of the way he traded, and periodically shifted money from one account to the other to keep them in balance.
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Chapter 27 Wrap-Up
I am going to end this course with a review of certain thoughts and concepts that I have and hold with regards to trading. Since I've been a private individual trader all of my trading career, my views are necessarily derived from that perspective. Comfort
I feel it is extremely important for a trader to find his level of comfort in trading. That entails discovering the following: Account size: You must find the account size with which you are at ease. Coincident with that, you must find out how much of it you are comfortable in trading. What I mean is that one trader may be comfortable trading 80% of a $100,000 account, whereas another trader, in order to trade a similar amount of money, may need to trade 16% of a $500,000 account. Use a cushion with which you feel comfortable.
I cannot tell you how many dozens of times I have been contacted by letter and by telephone by aspiring traders calling me to ask how big an account they need to have to "make a living" as a trader. Think about the absurdity of that question. How much money is a "living?" Is a "living" the same for you as it is for me?
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Contrary to what you may read or have read in magazine ads and fliers that are beyond my control to edit, I live a very simple life, one in which I am constantly trying to get rid of material possessions. I am at that stage of life where I no longer want a lot of "things. "
Markets: You must discover those markets in which you enjoy trading regardless of what others may say about them. If you are getting good fills and making steady profits in one or more markets, stay with them. Learn all you can about them, and trade there, even if that involves trading in only a single market. Time-frame: Determine a time-frame in which you are at ease in trading. Select one that gives you adequate time to think, one that is suited to your temperament. Decide whether or not you want to be a daytrader or a longer tenn trader. If you want to trade seasonally, you will probably choose the daily charts. But if trading the daily charts drives you to distraction, then perhaps you are better off trading a five minute chart. Only you can make this detennination. It is a totally individual decision. Not all of us can stand to be enslaved to a five minute S&P chart all day long. Not all of us can stand to wait an entire month to see one more bar on our chart. Charts: Select the kind or kinds of charts you will look at. Do you prefer candlestick charts? Fine, use them. They give you a strong visualization of a very important concept in the market, the relationship between the open and the close. Do you prefer line charts? Wonderful, your perception of a market will be somewhat different from that of most of the other traders. Here's a suggestion, try using a line chart that connects open to open rather than close to close for the session you are going to trade. The open is far more important than the close. The open reflects many more hours of price discovery world wide than does the close, which reflects only a few hours' price action. Try looking at Point and Figure charts. I have a friend who is a successful trader using Point and Figure charts. It wasn't until he switched to them that he became successful.
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Indicators: If you are going to use one or more indicators in your trading, then you must know everything about that indicator that is possible to know. If possible, learn how it is constructed. What aspect of the market does it measure? Learn its patterns ofbehavior. How does it act when a market is trending? How does it act at the beginning of a trend? How does it behave at the end of a trend? What does it look like when a market congests and moves sideways? Remember, too, that an indicator will always lag the price action. Indicators, without exception, are totally dependent on what has already happened. I used to think that there were such things as "leading" indicators. But logic alone should tell you that such a thing is impossible. The greatest weakness in using indicators is that you become married to them. This takes away your flexibility and skews your ability to think. However, if you trade best when using indicators, then use them. Use those with which you are comfortable. Brokerage: Finding the right broker for your chosen style of trading is of the utmost importance. It is one of the toughest jobs a trader faces. As a rule, brokers are an odd lot. You may have to search long and hard to find a broker with whom you are compatible, who gives you good service and good fills, who stays in the industry (the turnover is very high), who is generally honest, who understands the way you trade, and who will give you reasonable commissions and margin requirements. Predicting I have probably written this a thousand times in other places: "It is not within the realm of man to be able to tell the future. Telling the future is reserved for God." You will no doubt read about people, methods, and systems that can predict tops and bottoms. My advice is, don't believe a word of it! If anyone really knew how to tell the future, why would they tell you how to do it? Anyone who can predict highs and lows would be filthy rich. Anyone who could truly tell tops and bottoms, or where, when, and how much a market will turn, would surely own the whole world and would probably set himself up as God. As the famous saying goes, "in a land where everyone else is blind, the one-eyed man is king."
The results of trying to predict the future are these:
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You cannot predict with sufficient consistency to actually trade by your predictions. When you do predict, you will become married to your own view, and will lose the flexibility needed to change when you are incorrect about your prediction. Mechanical Systems While I agree that it is possible to trade with a mechanical system and win, to do so takes an iron discipline - one much more difficult than the discipline needed to trade as a thinking person. You have to be willing to bite the bullet and follow the system come hell or high water. This is not a way that has been comfortable for me in my own trading. In addition, there is a total loss of flexibility when trading a mechanical system. When trading a mechanical system, one becomes a slave of that system. When markets change, and they do so with increasing frequency, you are a prisoner of your mechanical system. You are unable to change. You are in a marriage gone sour and have no way out because you have never really learned how to trade. What you have learned is how to follow a system, and how to have a rigid discipline. While that may be commendable, it is not really trading. Stops Learning where other people have placed their stops is one of the most important lessons you can learn. When you are trading, it is absolutely essential to determine where the paper is. The market is always going to go to wherever the orders are. You can determine where the paper is by calling your floor persons, or have your broker call them. You Cllp. also determine where it is by noticing where natural support and resistance are located. Sooner or later, prices will move to where the orders are and the floor or the strong hands in the market will run the stops. They are not out to get you. They are trying to make money, and if there are a lot of sell stops below them, they are going to sell knowing that when they cover their shorts by buying, whoever has that paper is going to sell to them.
Conversely, if there are sufficient buy orders above the current price action, someone is going to buy at the current price level, knowing that when prices rise to a level where the buy orders are located, they will be able to liquidate their long position by selling to those buyers.
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Fundamentals Whereas I do not trade from fundamentals in the sense that most fundamental traders do, I have found that it is essential to be aware of the type of fundamental knowledge that can be found in the news and other easily accessible places. You must be aware of report dates, options open interest, breaking news, weather, governmental policies, etc. Basic fundamentals such as these are of particular importance to seasonal traders. You must try to ascertain the probability of the success for a seasonal trade. You simply cannot spit into the wind. If there is a reason why a seasonal trade will probably not work, then by all means create a plan to fade that situation. Such trades usually work better and longer than the seasonal trades would have worked. Such trades are relatively few and far between, but when they occur, jump on them and trade them with the utmost confidence that huge profits will be available. Be Aware of Order Flow The market goes nowhere until orders come in from off the floor. The floor traders are mostly scalpers and it takes orders from the retail trade, the commercials, the large traders, the funds, managed money, or institutional traders to cause real movement in a market. Until this outside money comes in, prices will go nowhere in particular and a market will remain congested in a tight trading range. Order flow can be monitored via volume, but remember that volume is always reported too late to do the off-the-floor trader any good. One way to find out what is going on and the amount of volume in the market, as well as whether or not large trade participants are in the market, is to have adequate connections to the floor. You can find out who is trading and the degree of volume simply by asking someone at an arb or trade desk what is going on.
Know How to Give Orders You must make it your business to know and understand every kind of order that can be given and what it does. You can then plan entire strategies with that knowledge, because ordering is part and parcel with the kinds of tactics you use in
267
implementing your strategies. For that purpose, I have prepared a course on tape cassettes. Trading Order Power Strategies teaches you how to order and how to use ordering to increase your profits and minimize your losses. See the Appendix C for fiuther details. I am constantly amazed at how little attention is paid to this vital aspect of trading. You must know everything you can about order placement, tactics, and strategies. Stay Flexible One of the most important things I've learned over my long association with the markets is that markets can and do change. In recent years, markets have changed more rapidly than ever before. To be able to profit in such markets, you must be able to adapt, to change with the markets. To do that you must remain flexible and willing to change. That is why mechanical systems are a greater hindrance than you might imagine. I have seen mechanical systems that worked well for many years, but eventually they failed. You think to yourself, "what do I care if markets change, all I want is for this system to work long enough for me to make my money, then I can run!" I have no doubt that such has and will happen to some traders. Many of the great luminaries of trading had that exact thing happen to them. They made a ton of money during a short period of time, and now they spend their time writing about it and basking in former glory. However, that is not the way to make a career of trading. All too many of those who hit it big during a short period of time end up giving back all of what they made and more. I've seen it happen dozens of times. Trading for the short run, knowing that what you are doing is going to fail when the markets change, is a form of gambling. A career trader knows the markets will change and that he has to change with them. It's the only way I have ever seen to have and maintain a career as a trader. Learn to Take What the Market Gives You A professional trader leams to take consistent profits out of the market on a regular basis. I know many professional traders who have never, during long careers, hit a really big winner. They never caught the grains during a drought, they were not short the S&P when it crashed, and they were not long any of the currencies when they made 500 point days. They learned to take their profits out of the middle or wherever they could get them. They leamed to be satisfied with whatever the market handed them. They were already out of the market with their money when the big move came. This is the life of a professional trader. Be consistent, be disciplined, and 268
avoid being greedy. Quit trying to win the lottery in the futures markets. If you take a lot of chances and are a gambler, you are in one of the worst places you could possibly be. In a gambling casino or at a race track, you do not start out in a hole. You do not have to pay commissions and fees. When you use the futures markets to gamble, you start out as a loser every time. You are always in the hole by the amount of your overhead. And, believe me, it is considerable. You have the costs of data, brokerage, exchange fees, hardware, software, maintaining an office, etc. Be a trader, not a gambler, and take your profits regularly. I wish you the very best in your trading.
Joe Ross
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Appendix A Chart Patterns for Outright Seasonal Futures Charts Made Easy
Note: The material in this appendix is not new. Much of it is taken from my course on TRADING OPTURES AND FUTIONS. I present it here primarily for the benefit of those who are not familiar with my other writings. What does a spread trader need to know about the futures markets to successfully employ them in his trading? The answer is, surprisingly little. Since this book is not a primer on futures trading, I assume that the reader has at least a basic understanding of what a futures contract is, and the mechanics involved in the trading of futures.
In my previous works, TRADING BY THE BOOK, TRADING BY THE MINUTE, TRADING THE ROSS HOOK, and TRADING IS A BUSINESS, I have presented various chart formations, and methods and techniques for trading those formations. The formations discussed in those books have stood the test of time. This appendix briefly describes those formations. Seasonal futures are merely another method or technique for trading those same price formations.
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This should not come as a surprise. Virtually anything you can do with a nonseasonal futures contract can be accomplished by the buying and selling of seasonally filtered contracts. My success as a trader is a testament to the infallibility of the time tested price formations I will be showing you. Recognition of these basic chart formations has enabled me to profitably trade the futures markets for many years. The truth is the truth, it does not change. Those readers thoroughly familiar with these chart formations may wish to skip this appendix and move on to the next. However, you may find a review useful to your trading. Any other price formations used for trading seasonal futures was shown in the context pertinent to the particular seasonal strategy.
Patterns for Success I'm now going to show you some very potent patterns for trading in any time frame. These price patterns are my major entry signals. They are not the only signals I've shown in this manual. Others were shown in context in previous chapters. Those in this appendix are ideal for grasping the basic tenets of chart reading.
Major Entry Signals My major entry signals are as follows, and I give them my highest priority. They are all derived from the DAILY BAR CHART: • The breakout of a Trading Range. • The breakout ofa 1-1-3 high or low. • The breakout of a Ross Hook. • The breakout of a Ledge. Let's take these in the order listed above.
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THE BREAKOUT OF A TRADING RANGE Most of the time, a Trading Range will be preceded on the daily chart by either a gap or a day which is relatively large in size from high to low. The next figure illustrates this point. (Readers of my other books, please note that 1 mayor may not draw an expanded envelope around a Trading Range when trading seasonally. Whether or not I do is subjective, based upon what I am seeing on the chart.)
11781
..J............ . .1.J..6.J.J. .. ..J.. ........~ .. 1.1~.:.a.3 ..
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My first step after noting a gap, a series of gaps, or a large size trading day, is to begin to watch for a Trading Range to evolve. Here is how it will usually happen: • There will be a gap or large one day move up into or down into what will eventually be seen as a Trading Range. • There will be a leg (this is a leg I, or this \) counter to the thrust of the gap or large day move. • Then there will be a second leg back in the direction of the gap or large single day move. At that point, the market's most recent action looks like this!\ or this Vfrom a bird's eye view.
273
It is then that I draw a horizontal line across the highest high and a parallel horizontal line across the lowest low. It will usually take about 1 0 days or so for all of this to happen. The fonnations !\ or V constitute "market swings."
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• In the next few days, a third leg will fonn, giving us N, or \1\. This is the beginning of what may turn out to be a Trading Range. Again I draw horizontal lines across the highest high and lowest low, unless the old ones are still intact. I have now established a rudimentary envelope that is delineated by drawing a simple horizontal line across the top of the Trading Range and-a parallel line across the bottom of the Trading Range. • My next step is to count the number of bars on the daily chart. Sometime between 21 and 29 days, a fourth leg will usually be completed. The Trading Range now looks like M, or W. If there had been a new high or low, or both, during that last leg, I would have redrawn the envelope. Usually this is not necessary.
274
I can now set a mental alert or a computer alert, or both, to tell me when I am approaching the proximity of these numbers which represent the outer limits of the envelope. Any non-gap breakout of these numbers will constitute an entry point for me to trade. This will be the least frequently occurring entry technique in my arsenal, but it will be one of the best. The thrust out of an envelope will yield many a worthwhile trade. The next figure will serve to demonstrate this point.
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s
A
Q
t
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n
Double gap down
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lit tlf~tr 'l\ ,- ----··7
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I go long or short the day following a close outside of the Trading Range.
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My entry point is a trade-through by prices of the breakout point. The breakout point is the highest high or the lowest low of the Trading Range. I will enter a trade at or (for those familiar with the Trader's Trick) before the breakout. I will not enter if prices gap past my entry point. The Trader's Trick is discussed in detail in TRADING THE ROSS HOOK, and TRADING IS A BUSINESS. When I take the first breakout of a Trading Range, I anticipate a short tenn trade, two, perhaps three price bars in the direction of the breakout. The time frame has no bearing on my expectations. Obviously, a two or three bar move on the daily chart is going to cover a lot more price movement than would a two or three bar move on an intraday chart. 275
In any event, I anticipate a short-tenn move of a few bars, followed by a correction of some kind. The more conservative approach is to wait for the correction to take place, and then attempt entry into the market. In the figure below, you can see that the first breakout failed. After such a failure, a reentry of the range is probable and a breakout on the opposite side is possible.
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I go long or short the day fonowing a close outside of the Trading Range.
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On a daily chart, such a move would be nicely profitable. On a five minute chart, such a move would not have been nearly as profitable, and probably would have had the trader scrambling for his life. Should the breakout momentum continue, resulting in an extension of the long upward trend that preceded the initial Trading Range, the probabilities are that such a resumption of the major upward trend would see the realization of a nice profit on any bar chart, in any time frame. For more detail on how I use the envelopes described, consult my previous course, TRADING BY THE BOOK.
276
THE BREAKOUT OF A 1-2-3 HIGH OR LOW Let's illustrate what a 1-2-3 is: 2
(----
Buy a breakout of the #2 point in an uptrend. --)
3
Sell a breakout of 2 the #2 point in a downtrend•
Note: The #3 point does not come down as low as the # 1 point in a uptrend, or as high as the # 1 point in a down trend . I set a mental or computer alert, or both, to warn me of an impending breakout of these key points. I will not enter a trade if prices gap beyond my entry point. I will enter it only if the market trades through my entrY point. 1-2-3 highs and lows come only at market turning points at the end of a trend. I look for 1-2-3 lows when a market seems to be making a bottom, or has reached a 50% or greater retracement of a preceding leg up. I look for 1-2-3 highs when a market appears to be making a top, or has reached a 50% or greater retracement of a preceding leg down. Entrv will always be at or prior to the actual breakout of the #2 point. The next figure illustrates this entry technique in action.
277
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The 1-2-3 low is characterized by the fact that the #3 point does not come back (retrace) as low as the #1 point. A 1-2-3 high is characterized by the fact that the #3 point does not come backiretrace) as high as the # 1 point. Detailed discussion of how I use the 1-2-3 to trade futures can be found in TRADING BY THE BOOK and either TRADING BY THE MINUTE or TRADING THE ROSS HOOK. The essential concept is to buy or sell as the price action "takes out"
(trades through) the #2 point. There are other refinements to this concept which are discussed in the aforementioned volumes.
278
THE BREAKOUT OF A HOOK A Ross Hook looks like this:
~The top is the point of the hook. A 1-2-3 low formation is not necessary. U prices go back up and take out the point of the hook~ I buy.
1
11
I
The bottom is the point of the hook. A 1-2-3 high formation is not necessary. H prices take out the point of the hook, I sell. ~
I I
In a sense, a hook is a part of a 1-2-3, but it doesn't have to have a definitive high or low. It may pop out of a congestion area, or otherwise be indistinguishable as to any exact formation. Ross Hooks occur only in trending markets, whereas 1-2-3 lows occur at market bottoms, and 1-2-3 highs occur at market tops . A Ross Hook does not need more than one correction bar on the chart. In a down market, as soon as you have a higher low, you have a hook. In an up market, as soon as you have a lower high, you have a hook. The correction can be an inside bar, just make sure the market is truly trending. A more conservative view would be that to create a hook in a down market you have to have both a higher low and a higher high, and in an up market, you have to have both a lower high and a lower low to create a hook. The choice must be your own according to experience. My own preference is that any correction bar, including an inside bar, forms a hook. The next figure shows what I mean by Ross Hooks.
279
Ross Hook (Rh),
Once the #2 point oC a
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a new low constitutes a
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The difference a and a,Ross Hook is that the 1-1-3 comes at an mtermediate 0]' ma:.Jo]' turninlllloint at the ...~.c;;.•. ~.. . end oC a trend, and Hooks occur only after a trend is defined b y " .:16J9.. . a 1-2-3, ...~."'.J.;t.. .
A Ross Hook can occur only after a valid 1-2-3, or , in the absence of a 1-2-3 after the ~reakout of a Trading Range or Ledge. The #2 point is created by a corr~ction but is not a Ross Hook-'. All subsequent points created by corrections are Ross Hooks. The above Ross Hooks "Rh" were tradable because they had non-gap breakouts. There are other Hooks shown, but, because of gap openings, they were not tradable. I've shown 1-2-3 lows and highs to demonstrate the difference between 1-2-3's and Ross Hooks. An automatic alert should be placed the minute a market makes a hook on the daily chart. I place the alert at a point prior to the taking out of the hook. The Ross Hook appears in all of my earlier books, and is discussed in great detail in TRADING THE ROSS HOOK.
280
THE BREAKOUT OF A LEDGE This is what a Ledge might look like:
This is how I determine what constitutes a Ledge: I look for a correction or congestion that is at least three bars in length, but no more than ten bars in length. The Ledge is characterized by a "squaring off" of highs andlor lows, the flatter the better. Perfect squares are best. I trade the potential breakout in either direction. Opinion CANNOT be allowed to enter the picture. I do NOT know which way the breakout will occur! For every alert on one side of the Ledge, there is an opposite alert entered at the other side of the Ledge. I can go back only as far as the first leg of the previous market swing to find a matching high or low.
281
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When defining the Ledge, I can go back no further than the first of the four legs. What I have done here is to allow the market to tell me what it is going to do. In a sense, this technique is a "straddle." It's not a straddle as the word is used in options trading. The technique I use becomes possible because the market decides to move sideways for a number of bars on the chart, thereby making it possible for me to straddle the prices with my buy and sell orders at natural support and resistance points. I mark these off as soon as I can draw a line with a ruler across two highs or two lows, just so long as they match in price. I will enter a trade only if prices break out of the Ledge by trading through the high or the low (or both). I will not enter a trade if prices gap past my entry points. 282
Once there are more than ten bars on the chart, I stop trying to trade the ledges. I wait for the market to start trending again, or for a full blown Trading Range to complete itself. Why does this entry technique work so well? Because it takes advantage of natural support and resistance points. A breakout of a natural support or resistance point will usually carry good momentum. There should be enough explosive force to give a profitable short term trade. In order to show more clearly what I'm doing with this technique, I have shown a Swiss Franc chart in the next figure.
SWISS FRANC
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283
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I find two matching highs. I find two matc~ lows. Then I b.uy the breakout of the highs, or sell the breakout of the lows
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matches do not have to be exact. They can be I 1 E;1I~.1 ..... off by one to three ticks, but no more than that. Exact f r'~';' matches are best. If I h.ave any doubt, I lea.ve it alone. 1 ~.. J,. I can match a high WIth a low, or a low WIth a high, as long as the ~ .E:.~~? .... first match IS separated from the second by at least one price bar. .~~'.'fJ .... :me
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From left to right, I would take the first and second , 11 ledge breakouts, but not the third or fourth This is I1 ;. t -t because of the gap openings beyond \ -1111 f.. ttI I my entry point.
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Not all ledges ~e sUltable for trading. I take only those in which there are no gap openings past the entry point.
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This last le dge was a ~~
ruce one.
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In the figure above, I trade only an actual breakout of the Ledge. The breakout point is where I have drawn the line connecting two matching highs or two matching lows. This may not be the absolute high or low of the entire congestion on a chart of daily prices. 284
Ledge trades should be taken only in strongly trending markets. You will be killed if you attempt them in Trading Ranges. What is a strongly trending market? One that is moving at a 45° or greater angle. For more detail on how I trade ledges in the futures markets, see my book TRADING IS A BUSINESS .
SUMMARY OF MAJOR ENTRY SIGNALS • The breakout of a Trading Range. • The breakout of a 1-2-3 high or Iow. • The breakout of a Ross Hook. • The breakout of a Ledge.
Note: some of these may occur concurrent with one another. That's it! Four simple patterns are all you need to trade seasonals properly. Congestion Since this may be the reader's first contact with my writings, I must, for the sake of building a foundation, explain what various chart patterns are like, what congestion consists of, why congestion occurs, and how it looks. I will also be showing how to identify a trend. Being able to identify either congestion or a trend for the most part used to be sufficient. If a market was trending, then it was not in congestion. If a market was in congestion, it was not trending. If you were not sure, then you stood aside until you were sure.
285
What Is Congestion?
If we have rules for defining congestions and trends, why do we need to examine the fundamental causes? Because as much as we would like to set rules about market action, the markets do not always accommodate our rules. We've seen how congestion appears, but what is it? Why does it occur? When does it occur? Congestion is characterized by an area where prices move sideways. Prices move in a "Trading Range." There is a price zone of relative support, and a price zone of relative resistance. Support and resistance are usually readily seen at a price area that is tested or challenged more than once. Congestion is typified by alternating bars of lower-open, higher-close and higheropen, lower-close, as well as Doji bars. Technically, a Doji bar is a price bar having an equal open and close. Congestion may be an area of neutrality of opinion. Congestion may be an area of equilibrium. Supply and demand are approximately equal, or in balance. Congestion may be an area of accumulation or distribution. Why Congestion Occurs
A number of reasons for congestion are described in the next few paragraphs. There are other reasons as well. Equilibrium: A balance between supply and demand may cause a market to move sideways in a Trading Range. This happens because at the lower price zone of the Trading Range, prices are perceived by some traders as being inexpensive, and buying takes place. At the upper price zone of the Trading Range prices are high enough that some traders are willing to take profits. To whom do they sell? To those traders who buy the market thinking that prices will go up even further. They are looking for a breakout. Why does their buying not cause the market to break out and go higher?
286
Because in addition to the selling by those who take profits, there is selling by those traders who feel the market has gone too high, they trade "resistance." Their selling defeats the buying by the breakout traders, and the market moves back down to the lower price zone. At the lower price zone, the sellers who sold high buy back their short positions in order to take profits. From whom do they buy? From those traders who feel the market is now underpriced. Why doesn't the market continue down? Because in addition to the bargain shoppers, there will be traders who are buying "support." If more traders buy than sell, the market will begin to rise, thus prolonging the length of the Trading Range. One aspect of equilibrium then is profit taking, which in itself is a reason that markets congest. Profit taking: When a market has been trending for awhile, a point will be reached where accumulated profits in the trade are too tempting to be left in the market. Profit taking will result in a pause in the trend, at which point an active exchange between buyers and sellers will take place. Profit takers will be met by those eager to join the trend on a retracement. Accumulation and distribution: These phases of a market's price action usually cause it to enter congested Trading Ranges. Those eager to accumulate a given tradable will buy when the price drops below their target, but stop buying when the price rises above what they perceive to be the "value area." The price will then have to drop to encourage new buyers. Those who want to distribute will sell, but only when the price is sufficiently high. Doubt: A market will tend to move sideways when traders are not sure concerning various fundamentals that affect a particular market. Uncertainty regarding whether there will be sufficient or excess rain or any early freeze may affect foodstuff markets. A threatened strike by gold miners in Africa or silver miners in Mexico may create doubt and cause those markets to move sideways. The threat of central bank intervention may cause currencies to move sideways. Divergence of opinion concerning a report to be issued can cause congestion in a market. Confusion: When government policies affecting a market are not clear, the market may move in a Trading Range. Conflicting government reports on the economy can cause markets to go into congestion.
287
Conflicting private or government weather reports, conflicting statements by governmental and quasi-governmental officials can cause a market to congest.
In general, anything that creates confusion or doubt may cause a market to stop trending and congest before resuming an existing trend or changing direction and forming a new trend. Remember, if a formation is not congestion, then it must be a trend, and vice-versa. Let's begin by learning to .visualize congestion. Visualizing Congestion What does congestion look like? How does it appear to the eye? I'm going to show you a series of charts, all of which, at least in some part, depict congestion. GLft.»
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....uu . ... .uu.. The chart above shows nearly seven months' worth of daily price bars. The entire chart is one big congestion, and contains numerous smaller congestion areas.
288
Only at the far left of the chart do we see two brief periods when the market trended for a few days. Now we will take a closer look at some other charts and derive the definitions of trend and congestion.
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Above is a typical congestion or Trading Range. Begin looking carefully to see if you can spot where and why congestion began. How could you tell visually? Take a few minutes to think about this chart. It will help you to understand what follows. Take note, if you will, that the congestion began while the market was still trending. Only by looking back can it be seen that congestion began at the point I marked on the chart .
289
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I4hel'e did COTl!Jestion begin?
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Ask yourself, "Why does ;ongestion begin there? Why not somewhere else?" How can one tell it began there? What are the characteristics of congestion? Was there any place on the chart where congestion ended? Why? See if you can anticipate how we will define congestion.
290
Defining Congestion One of the concepts I learned in the earliest years of my trading was how to know when I was in congestion. I was taught each of the concepts I will present, the most recent by my trader fuend, NeaI Arthur Muckler. I'll begin with that one. Any time prices close on four consecutive bars, within the confines of the range of a single price bar and subsequent to that bar, you have congestion. This is regardless of where the highs and lows may be located. The single price bar may be termed a measuring bar. You will have to closely and carefully study congested areas. Congestion can be very subtle in appearance. Often the difference between congestion or trend is the positioning of a single open or close. Now it's time to review another way to know when we are in congestion. Any time we are not making higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows, and we can see four alternating bars, at times coupled with inside bars, at times coupled with Dojis, we have congestion. Alternating bars are ones where prices open lower and close higher on one bar, and open higher and close lower on the next. Inside bars look like this:
{- Inside Bar
291
Dojis are bars where the open and close are at the same price or very near to the same price, yielding a bar that looks like this:
A1l!:J collthfnat.fon at roW'" of' 'these is congeation.
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rh is. too. is congest ion.
A doJi ..ay be used as a
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A combination of alternate closing high-low, low-high pairs is congestion. "Pointy" places made when the market is in congestion are not Ross Hooks.
292
The first bar of the congestion may very well be the last bar of what had been a trend. A congestion may look similar to any of the following, as long as it consists of four or more bars:
Conl5f.S'Uon l:ty high-low pAirs.
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d~l o.an be USH as "wUclo&J"d. A cloJi toweother with a.ny OOMloinaUOh o£ on. or MO_ non-d.~i b .... c.n he consid. ....... &5 congestion. le th._ .... t h _ such non-doJi ......... one oC thttM MUSt alt .. zonat .. high-low with tIM oUter- ~.
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Frequently congestion will start or end with a doji. Frequently congestion will begin or end with a long bar move, or a gap. Another way to identify congestion is when you see M or W on the chart. The smallest possible number of bars that can make up this formation is four. Let's see how this can be done.
293
"'bat we have here is an open higher close lower, followed. by an open lower close hi9'her. followed by an open hJ9'fter close lower. followed by an open lower close h i9'her sequence Thi s fOMS a. ,,,y .
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Here we haue an open lower close higher. followed ~ an open hi9'her close lower. followed ~ an open lower close higher, rollowed by an open higher close lower sequence. This tOrl"S an /V'.
In reality, we may get something that looks more like the following:
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What we haue here is an open higher clo.... lower. followed by an open lower close higher. rollowed by an open hi9'her close lower. rollowed by an open lower close higher sequence This rOrMS a 'A/.
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Here we haue openhigher lower close close hig ....r.followed. by followed by ananopen lower, an open lower close hi9'har. followed by an open higher close lower sequence, This forlllS an .IV,.
294
If we were to get a formation that looked like the following, the Ross Hook would be as marked. If that Hook is taken out, we would want to be long. Notice that the bar that created the Ross Hook was the last bar of the trend and the first bar of the congestion.
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The Ross hook we're interested in occurred at the high just
pr ior to congest ion,
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Now, let's see if you're really getting this.
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There is a second Hoss hook forMed dur ing the congest ion Do ~ou know where it is J and wh~ it is a Ross hook? I
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The Ross Hook is as marked below.
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A 1-2-3 £oll""ed by a Rh. when occurring in congestion. glues a new Rh. The ne.. 1Ih supereed•• bot.h the aid. Rh, and. the congestion. A tuing out or the new Rh would be a. tradable euent..
Note: A 1-2-3 followed by a breakout of the #2 point, that subsequently results in a Ross Hook, supersedes any congestion, or previous Ross Hook. The price bar labeled "b" made a new local low. The take out by prices of the local double resistance, "a" and "b", is a significant event. "a" and "b", together, constitute the number two point of a 1-2-3 low occurring in congestion. The new Ross Hook represents an even more significant breakout point. Combined with the old Rh, there is significant resistance, and within a few ticks, the two constitute a double top. lfprices take them both out, you would normally expect a relatively longer term, strong move up. I use the term "relatively" here, because the intensity and the duration of the move would be relative to the time frame in which the price bars were made. Obviously such a move on a one minute chart would hardly compare with an equivalent move on a daily chart. While we are looking at the chart, there is something else of importance to notice. Prices retreated from the resistance point, thereby creating the second Ross Hook.
297
This represented a failure to break out. This failure is why Reverse Ross hooks are important. Now, let's give you a brief review of the various congestions. All of the three following conditions that define congestion must occur without consistently making higher highs or lower lows. Congestion by Opens/Closes: Four consecutive closes or opens within the range of a measuring bar. Congestion by Combination: A series of four consecutive dojis, or at least one doji and any three alternating bars. The doji is a wild card and can be used to alternate with any other bar. If there are three non-doji bars, one of them must alternate highto-low with the other two non-doji bars. Congestion by Alternation: A series of four consecutive alternating open high close low, open low - close high bars in any sequence. This definition includes Congestion by High/Low pairs.
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WI1ere did congest ion end?
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Congestions are supposed to have a beginning. At times they can continue quite a long while before they have an end. It is just as important to be able to identify the end of congestion as it is to identify the beginning. When congestion ends, a new trend may be born. Sometimes the market just quickly moves to a new congestion area. That is what we are seeing more of now - periods of extended congestion alternating with sudden explosions and collapses of price. If you have studied in detail the previous charts in this section, perhaps you are beginning to see how I define congestion. For purposes of trading as shown in this course, I define congestion as the absence o/trend.
299,
SF J Ihe Swiss Franc was alnost lille the D-Marl1 on the previolls chart, 'DIe!'e Will: a prie!' uptI'end leading to congestion. I've narked the uptrend. Where tl id congest ion begin and end?
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Including the first bar, if you said it began with the ninth bar from the left you were correct. Including the last- bar, if you said congestion ended with the eleventh bar from the right, you were right again. In a moment you will see why. So much for the suspense. The next few charts will reveal what I see that helps me define both trends and congestion areas. Remember, for this exercise it can be one or the other, but not both.
300
Defining A Trend JIl
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This chart does not show you where congestion began. The rtarket I1 }I any is in congestion frooo the beginning of the chart. But where. if place did congestion end? Is a new trend beginning?
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...Ilil?? .. .!.9.IlIl. .. '!'9.5.~. .. .!.9.?iI. .. .!.Illlf> . .. .7.Il5.? . .!.B11l . .. .7.7.Il~ . 77511
I am going to show you a new way to define a trend. This is not in conflict with my other writings, rather it is in addition to them . Including the last bar, congestion ended with the seventh bar from the right Why? A new trend is beginning. Why? The seventh bar from the right is the fourth successive bar that has closed higher than it opened. A trend is being born. Following a turning point (five bars prior to the seventh bar), four successive bars that close higher than they open indicate a trend being born. But what of the bars following that seventh bar from the right? We have three correcting bars followed by a breakout bar. The breakout bar dermes the trend. It took out the high of the fourth bar that closed higher than it had opened. A new trend has been born within the old congestion. There is no guarantee as to the probable duration of this new trend. Nevertheless, for purposes of this book a new trend has started, it has been defined. It remains to be seen whether this new trend will break out of the old congestion. Later we'll see what all this means and how we can trade it.
301
GC A " J 3557 Gold hefall a ..ajo,. cD~estion with a gap dawn intD it. P,.iCJl'to that tlIere was a brief dDWntrend. As YD.. ca.n see, by reasDn 0£' our definition of the .3~~ of a neu trend, there has been area "hatsoeyer . that could hue been designated as s"ch. 3525
I
Ifjbe9innin9"
no
nlJI l~~)~ t
ftrJ
ltf
.. 3~~
It
1 }t 339b
Look at the relatio~ship ~etween ~e opens and the closes on the Gold chart. They are mostly alternatmg, WIth occaslOnal bars (Dojis) where the open and the close are the same. Th.ere is not a single s~ries offour or more bars after a turning point, where there IS a steady progreSSIOn of closes higher than opens to signifY the birth of an uptrend, nor a single progression of opens higher than closes signifYing a downtrend being born. The first rule of an emerging trend is that there must be at least a series of four closes higher than opens, or a series offour closes lower than opens, following a turningj>oint (some call them pivot points) in order for a trend to be considered as emerging. What constitutes a turning point? Looking back you see that the .market has ch~ged direction. It may be a correction in process, but the ma:ket IS no longer gomg in the same direction. I don't know how to predict turning po~ts, but. I can see them ~hen I look at what has happened. When I say after a mz:ung pomt, I mean the Pivot bar c~ot be counted in the progression. A turning pomt would have been a Ross Hook ill the prior trend, or is near the extreme of a Trading Range, or could also be either a #1 or #3 point.
302
difficult. If you can get this one, you are well on your way to becoming a Inuch better trader than you presently
: : e it a try, I'll help you
I
J
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Nowhere is a chart that is a bit Inore }
tj t l r It
11!Zi1
~
l 1 t j of
11 t jlll
1 • }J)I ) 111 rr
Ij 1r
on the following pages.
1~ 1
11i'B!1
11182
.~~~~ .!~1.~~ )~~
11lOO5 Be very, very honest, and very careful. Hint: From beginning to end there are three trends trying to be born. One of them made it and teaches us a new rule. Another Inade it according to the original rule. One other, as far as this chart is concerned never made it, and so the rest of the chart is cong;estion.
. ~~~? . !~~ leJ5'3 .. .......
18218
Let's look at this chart and learn a new rule. The rule is, that if subsequent to a turning point, there are three successive open-lower, close-higher bars followed immediately by a gap up opening beyond the Trading Range of the previous bar, or three successive open-higher, close-lower bars followed immediately by a gap down opening beyond the Trading Range of the previous bar, a trend is attempting to emerge. Once again, this must occur after the turning point. We now have two rules that show the birth or emergence of a trend out of congestion. Let's repeat them: 1. Subsequent to a turning point, four successive open-lower, close-higher bars, or four successive open-higher, close-lower bars, mean a trend is attempting to emerge. 2. Subsequent to a turning point, three successive open-lower, close-higher bars followed immediately by a gap up opening beyond the high of the previous bar, or three successive open-higher, close-lower bars followed immediately by a gap down opening beyond the low of the previous bar, mean a trend is emerging or being born. 303
Under either rule the emerging trend is not yet defined. We cannot say the trend is defined unless and until the highest high of the emerging trend is taken out in an upmove, or the lowest low of the emerging trend is taken out in a down-move. When the appropriate breakout has taken place, we have a defined trend. I've also labeled the successor to the defined trend. We will call it an established trend. An established trend takes place when there is a correction subsequent to a defined trend. When the extreme of the defined trend is taken out, we then have an established trend. IIG
.J
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.1.1.41'1;1 q2~;!
.m~~ JEl9~~
.1.e.s!'IE. .1.e.65.1. }Il!:J",~
.1.";3~9. 1821B
In a rising market: • Subsequent to a turning point, four successive closes higher than the opens = emerging trend. • Subsequent to a turning point, three successive closes higher than the opens, followed by a gap up open beyond the high of the previous bar = emerging trend. • The break out of the high of an emerging trend = defined trend. • The breakout of the high of a defined trend = established trend,
304
In a falling market: • Subsequent to a turning point, four successive closes lower than the opens = emerging trend. • Subsequent to a turning point, three successive closes lower than the opens, followed by a gap down open beyond the low of the previous bar = emerging trend. • The breakout of the low of an emerging trend = defined trend. • The breakout of the low of a defined trend = established trend .
J
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R
CQIlg:stiQn begins
...~~?~
..~~~~
,
.~'-fl8
4133 3977
...3.1?1 }U.~G 3811!
Now let's learn some other rules: 3. A correction can last no more than three bars. Four bars marks either congestion or the birth of a trend in the opposite direction. A correction in an uptrend is any failure by prices to make a new high. A correction in a downtrend is any failure by prices to make a new low, 4. Once a trend is defined, it requires at least four non-trending bars to break the trend, i.e., four or more bars in which the trend fails to continue, either by virtue of congestion or correction.
305
5. An uptrend is defined when the highest high of an emerging trend is taken out or violated. A downtrend is defined when the lowest low of an emerging trend is taken out or violated. 6. An uptrend is established when, after a reaction or even a sideways hesitation (Ledge), the high of the defined uptrend is taken out or violated and the trend continues. A downtrend is established when after a reaction or even a sideways hesitation (Ledge), the low of the defined downtrend is taken out or violated and the trend continues. Combining Rules 5 and 6, a trend is first defined, and later established. A defined trend puts us on alert. An established trend is a tradable event. If we know how to identify an emerging trend, then by default we know how to identify congestion. Anything that is not a trend must, by definition, be congestion. However, congestion can also be defined on its own terms, for fundamental reasons, as described earlier.
I
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A
Congestion begins
1Z55
...~u~?
...~1.~~ . ~8.1I11 .~8.3.3. 3977 :'l~~1,
.3.9.6.6. 38111
.. .3.1.5.5. 3799
306
Appendix B
Decision Tables
In several places throughout the text, I mentioned the fact that you can get professionally researched data on seasonality. I asked Moore's Research Center for permission to reproduce their seasonal tables so that you could see first hand the format of what I am able to see when I look for seasonality in a trade. The following pages contain examples of the Moore's Research Decision Tables. All tables show a fifteen year history. The top section of the tables is explained below. The bottom section of the tables is explained at the end of this Appendix .
1. The Contract Year 2. The Optirnized approximate Entry Date 3. The theoretical Entry Price for that Entry Date 4. The Optirnized approximate Exit Date 5. The theoretical Exit Price for that Exit Date 6. The theoretical Profit Amount had you entered on the Optirnized Entry Date and exited on the Optirnized Exit Date. 7. The Best Equity Date, which represents the date for each year on which the trade had the greatest amount ofunrealized paper profits. 307
a
A Decision Table Showing a history ofthe September D-MarkIB-Pound sp
1
Bu)' Sep 95 Deutsche Mark(IMM) / Sell Sep 95 British Poun
Moo<, Re!;earchCenter,Inc
Enter on approximately OS/26 - Exit on approximately 06120 CONT YEAR
w o co
ENTRY DATE
ENTRY PRICE
EXIT DATE
PROm AMOUNT
EXIT PRICE
BEST EQUITY DATE
BEST EQUITY AMOUNT
1994
05126/94
-18438
06120/94
-17875
562.50
06/20/94
562.5
1993
05126/93
-20237
06/18/93
-19275
962.50
06/04/93
2600.0
1992
OS/26/92
-35875
06/19/92
-36225
-350.00
09/03/92
800.0
1991
OS/28/91
-34463
06/20/91
-31725
2737.50
06/18/91
3387.5
1990
05129190
-29238
06120/90
-31425
-2187.50
06/04/90
375.0
1989
05126/89
-34725
06120189
-31725
3000.00
06/14/89
3287.5
1988
05126/88
-42238
06120/88
-39350
2887.50
06/06/88
3887.5
1987
05126/87
-31575
061l9/87
-31325
250.00
OS/27/87
643.7
1986
OS/27/86
-37838
06/20/86
-37025
812.50
06/04/86
1031.2
1985
05128/85
-36856
06/20/85
-38169
-1312.50
06/05/85
131.2
1984
05129184
-40769
06120/84
-40169
600.00
06120/84
600.0
3718.7
1983
OS/26/83
-49381
06/20/83
-46075
330625
06/1 5/83
1982
OS/26/82
-58331
06/18/82
-57800
531.25
06117/82
793.7
1981
OS/26/81
-77025
06/1 9/81
-71938
5087.50
06/05/81
8031.2
1980
OS/27/80
-74425
06/20/80
-72425
2000.00
06/03180
Percentage Correct Average Profit on Winoing Trades Average Loss on Trades Average Net Profit Per Tra
-
4281.2
Protective S
80 1894.79
1894.79
-1283.33
-1283.33
1259.17
1259.17
Winners Losers --
Total Trades
HYPOTIIETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HA YE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN AC11JAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMtiL ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO. SINCE TIlE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXEClITED n-ffi REsULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR QVER-COt-APENSATED FO MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROORAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJEC-r TO TIlE FACT TIfAT TIlEY AR HINDSIGlIT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE sHO NECESSARILY IMPLY FUTURE PROFITS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD TIffiREFORE CA TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITIoN. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COlvfMISSrONS AND SLIPPAGE
Sol
~ S o N' o Cl) s..c.. c..Cl) ::r::S
~~ ~§
~c.. Cl) Cl> ::s ~.
'0
.....
Slg. ~ et
'" e: '"U).
Cl>
Cl>
g-
::s c..
~* § 0
c..::s Cl) ~ ~.
Cl>
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~
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o
~ Cl)
~. o a
.~
~
Cl>
~
~
~
~
~
o ......,
pread
nd (IMM)
50
WORST EQUITY DATE
WORST EQUITY AMOUNT
06/08/94
-1025.00
06/18/92
-387.50
06120/90
-2187.50
00
00
50
00
50
50
05127/88
-75.00
75
06/12/87
-1706.25
25
06/1 1186
-181.25
25
06/18/85
-2356.25
00
06/01184
-37.20
75
05/31183
-656.25
75
06/07/82
-1281.25
25
05/27/81
-212.50
25
Stop
es
(1637) 12 3 ----
15
LATED RESULTS 00 NOT REPRESENT OR TIlE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAfN RE DESIGNED WITH TIlE BENEFIT OF OWN. SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT AREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH
Percentage Correct
92
verage Profit on Winning Trades verage Loss on Trades
Protective St
0.20
490.91
-0.05
-125.00
Losers
0.18
439.58
Total Trades
Average Net Profit Per Trade
WilUlcrs
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RES{JL TS HA VE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITAnONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERfORMANCE RECORD, sIMUL ACTUAL TR.AI)ING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXEClITED TIlE RESULTS MAY HAVE 11NDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SlMULATED TRADING PROORAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO TIlE FACT THAT THEY ARE HlNDSIGfIT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS UKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO mOSE sHO NECESSARILY IMPLY FUTURE PROFITS. TIlE RISK OF LOSS IN 1RADING COMMOorTY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAR TRADING IS SUIT ABLE FOR YOU IN UGlIT OF yOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR CO~SSIONS AND SLIPPAGE
A Decision Table Showing a history of the May Feeders/August Fat Catt
"
CONT YEAR
CJJ
'~
Buy May 95 Feeder Cattle (CME)/Sel/ AlIg 95 Live Cattie
Moore Research Center, lne
Enter on approximately 04/30 - Exit on approximately 05/14 ENTRY DATE
ENTRY PRICE
EXIT DATE
PROFIT AMOUNT
EXIT PRICE
BEST EQUITY DATE
BEST EQUITY AMOUNT
19941
05102/94
11295
05ft3/94
11040
-255.00
19931
04/30/93
13477
05114/93
13775
298.00
05114/93
298.00
19921
04/30192
109101
05114192
11722
812.001
05114/92
812.00
1991 1
04/30/91
144201
05/14/91
15205
785.001
05108191
957.00
19901
04/30/90
126651
05114/90
13387
722.001
05/11/90
777.00
II)X') I
OSlO 1IXI)
110101
OS1121H'!
111'17
lH7.0ol
OSII2/HQ
JH7.00
19881
05102/88
12290
05113188
12705
415.001
05ft3/88
415.00
19871
04/30/87
9380
05114/87
10300
920.00
05/14/87
920.00
19861
04/30/86
5957
05/14/86
6760
803.00
05/13/86
1045.00
19851
04/30/85
6627
05/14/85
9642
315.00
05/10/85
648.00
19841
04/30184
63671
05114/84
6392
25.001
05114/84
25.00
19831
05102/83
73551
05/13/83
7742
387.001
05/13/83
387.00
19821
04/30/82
74101
05114/82
7427
05106/82
240.00
19811
04/30181
63751
05114/81
6890
1980 1
04/30/80
7602
05114/80
8892
Percentage Correct
17.00 1
515.001 1290.00
05114/81
515.00
05/12/80
1728.00
Protective St
93
Winners
549.36
549.36
iAverage Loss on Trades
-255.00
-255.00
Losers
IAverage Net Profit Per Trade
495.73
495.73
Total Trades
verage Profit on Winning Trades
HYPOllIETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HA VE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD. SIMUL ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO. SINCE Tlm TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXEctJrED nm RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROORAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT lHAT THEY ARE HINDSIGHT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE TIlAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHO NECESSARIL Y IMPLY F1J11JRE PROFITS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COlvlMODlTY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBST ANfIAL. you SHOULD TIffiREFORE CAR TRADING IS SUIT ABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION RESULTS NOT ADfl)STED FOR COMMISSIONS AND SLIPPAGE
top
(571) 11
s
12
LATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT R THE ll-APACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN E DESIGNED wrrn THE BENEFIT OF OWN. SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REFULL Y CONS£DER WHETHER SUCH
le
e(CME) WORST EQUITY DATE
WORST EQUITY AMOUNT
05110/94
-498.00
05/04/92
-385.00
0
05101190
-158.00
0
05/oJ/R9
-HS.OO
05105187
-220.00
05109/84
-915.00
01
05112182
-213.00
01
05105/81
-635.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
01
0
0
top
s
(644) 14
15
LATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT R Tlm IMPACT. IF ANY. OF CERTAIN E DESIGNED WI1l-l TIlE BENEFIT OF OWN. SIMULATED RESULTS 00 NOT REFULLY CONSIDER WHEllIER SUCH
1982
06/11182
2870
06/28182
4330
1460.00
06/21/82
2450.0
1981
06111181
-5750
06/26/81
-2845
2905.00
06126/81
2905.0
1980
06111/80
-20450
06/27/80
-17930
2520.00
06/23/80
93
Percentage Correct
3730.0
Protective S
!Average Profit on Winning Trades
1403.93
1403.93
Winners
lA verage Loss on Trades
-405.00
-405.00
Losers
IAverage Net Profit Per Trade
1283.33
1283.33
Total Trades
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFOIUviANCE RECORD, SIMUL ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE TIlE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTIJALLY BEEN EXECUTED TIlE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR QYER-COMPENSAiED FO MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAM:S IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT TIIAT TIiEY AR HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE TIIAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO rnOSE SHO NECESSARIL Y IMPL Y FUTURE PROFITS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD TIlEREFORE CA TRADING IS SUJTABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSIONS AND SLIPPAGE
a
II _
A Decision Table Showing a history of the September J- YenIB-Pound spre
~'::'hC'n'" In, M~"
Bu)' Sep 95 Japal/ese Yen(IMM) / Sell Sep 95 British Pound
. . Research Center. Inc
Enter on approximately 05121 - Exit on approximately 06125 CONT YEAR
ENTRY DATE
ENTRY PRICE
EXIT DATE
EXIT PRICE
PROFIT AMOUNT
BEST EQUITY DATE
BEST EQUITY AMOUNT
1994
05/23/94
26763
06124194
28250
1487.50
06/21/94
2600.00
1993
05121193
17575
06/25193
26063
8487.50
06/25193
8487.50
1992
05121/92
-15763
06125192
-17100
-1337.50
06/02/92
1862.50
1991
05121191
-16138
06/25/91
-10888
5250.00
06/20/91
5262.50
1990
05/21190
-21700
06/25/90
-25962
-4262.50
05/25190
2000.00
1989
05/22/89
-8\00
06/23/89
-5975
2125.00
06/23/89
2125.00
I'JHH
IISI2J/HH
-IS2011
O()/24/HH
-11171111
,I SilO Oil
IIM2,I/HH
4500.00
1987
05/21187
-14888
06125/87
-14519
368.75
05/27/87
2518.75
1986
05/21/86
-19138
06/25/86
-18688
45000
06120/86
1250.00
U> .....
1985
05/21/85
-28413
06/25/85
-29137
-725.00
05/24/85
1356.25
U>
1984
05121/84
-33188
06/25/84
-31631
1556.25
06/25/84
1556.25
1983
05/23/83
-441 SO
06/24/83
-43650
500.00
06/22/83
1481.25
1982
05121182
-59150
06125182
-58700
450.00
06/25/82
450.00
1981
05/21181
-74094
06/25/81
-66450
7643.75
06/05/81
8950.00
1980
05/21/80
-87669
06125/80
-86581
\087.50
06103/80
Percentage Correct Average Profit on Winning Trades IAverage Loss on Trades Average Net Profit Per Trade
80 2825.52
2825.52
-2108.33
-2108.33
1838.75
3087.50
Protective St
1838.75 _ _
Winners Losers
Total Trades
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMUL ACTUAL TRADING ALSO, SINCE TIlE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALL Y BEEN EXECUTED TIlE RESULTS MA Y HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FO MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMU1~ATED TRADING PROORAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO TIlE FACT THAT nillY AR lIINIJSIGIIT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACIlIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHO NECESSARILY IMPL Y FUTURE PROFITS HIE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAR TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LImIT OF YOUR FINANCIAl. CONDITION RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMtvllSSIONS AND SLIPPAGE
00
00
06/12/81
-800.00
00
06113/80
-850.00
Stop
(1668) 14 I
s
IS
LATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT OR THE llvfPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN RE DESIGNED Wlrn TIIE BENEFIT OF OWN SIMULATED REsULTS DO NOT AREFln..LY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH
ead
d (IMM)
0
WORST EQUITY DATE
WORST EQurry AMOUNT
I
06/06/94
-1287.50'
0
06/24/92
-1475.00
0
05/28/91
-1087.50
0
06125/90
-4262.501
0
06/]5/89
-1187.50'
5
06112/87
-381.25
0
06/02/86
-400.00
5
06/]8/85
-1637.50
5
06/09/83
-3212.50
0
06/07/82
-1775.00
0
05127/81
-181.25
0
05/28/80
-1556.25
0
0
5
top
s
(2390) 12 3 ___
__
I~
LATED RESULTS 00 NOT REPRESENT R THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN RE DESIGNED Wll1l THE BENEFIT OF OWN SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REFULLY CONSIDER Wl-IETHER SUCH
19821
03117/82
4.63
04107/82
7.72
3.09
1236.001
04/07/82
1236.0
19811
03117/81
-448
04/07/81
-643
-1.95
-780.001
03123/81
112.0
19801
03!l7/80
-1.38
04/07/80
-1.05
0.33
132.001
03/31/80
93
Percentage Correct
1.56
626.00
-1.95
-780.00
1.33
532.27
verage Profit on Winning Trades
vcrage Loss on Trades verage Net Profit Per Trade
132.0
Protective St
Winners Losers
Total Trades
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORlvlANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LiMITATIONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFOJU...tANCE RECORD. SIMUL ACTUAL TRADING ALSO, SINCE nm TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED THE RESULTS MAY HAVE tINDER· OR OVER·COMPENSATED FO MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT TIlAT THEY AR HINDSIGl-IT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCoUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHO NECESSARIL Y IMPLY FlITURE PROFITS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL YOU SHOULD lHEREFORE CAR TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION RESill.TS NOT ADJUSTED FOR CONfMISS}ONS AND SLlPPAnE
A Decision Table Showing a history of the October Fat Cattle/May Feeders s
a
Enter on approximately 0311 0 - Exit on approximately 04128
CONT YEAR
.~ 01
Buy Oct 95 Live Cattle(CME)ISell May 95 Feeder Cattle(
Moore Research Center, lnc
ENTRY DATE
ENTRY PRICE
EXIT DATE
PROFIT AMOUNT
EXIT PRICE
BEST EQUITY DATE
BEST EQUITY AMOUNT
19941
03/10/94
-11055
04/28/94
-10490
565.001
04/28/94
565.0
19931
03/10/93
-13102
04/28/93
-13017
85.001
04/12/93
530.0
19921
03/10192
-10830
04/28/92
-10687
143001
03123/92
375.0
19911
03/11191
-13305
04/26/91
-13697
-392.001
03113/91
268.0
19901
03112/90
-11525
04127/90
-11427
98001
04/04/90
515.0
19891
03110/89
-116551
04128/89
-10580
1075.001
04/27/89
1333.0
19881
03110/88
-129551
04128/88
-12365
590.001
04/1 5/88
1195.0
273.00 I
03/13/87
300.0
19871
03/10/87
-94901
04/28/87
-9217
19861
03110/86
-86251
04128/86
-5817
2808.001
03/28/86
2808.0
19851
03111/85
-96921
04/26/85
-7392
230000 I
04/25/85
2370.0
19841
03112/84
-86301
04/27/84
-7270
1360.001
04/27/84
1360.0
19831
03/10/83
-9680
04/28/83
-8680
1000.00
04/22/83
1618.0
273.00
04/19182
638.0
1698.0
0311 0/82
-8370
04/28/82
-8097
19811
03110/81
-9220
04/28/81
-8007
1213.00
03/20/81
1980 I
0311 0180
-12632
04128/80
-8845
3787.00
04/28/80
I 9821
Percentage Correct
3787.0
Protective S
93 1112.14
1112.14
Winners
Averugc l.oss on Trudes
-392.00
-)92.00
Losers
Average Net Profit Per Trade
101 \.87
101 \.87
Total Trade
verage Profit on Winning Trades
HYpOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS IlAVE CERTAlN INllERENT LIMITATiONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIM ACTUAL TRADING ALSO, SINCE TIlE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECtIfED TIlE RESULTS MAY IlAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED F MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SIMULATED TRADING PROGR.AlI.1S IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO TIlE FACT THAT THEY A IIINDSIGIIT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE TIIAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROfITS OR LossES SIMILAR TO THOSE SH NECESSARILY IWLY FUTURE PROFITS. 11ffi RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COt..1lv{ODlTY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUDSTANTIAL. YOU SilOULD TItEREFORE C TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LlGlIT OF YOUR FINANCIAl, CONDITION. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COM:MISSIONS AND SLIPPAGE
00
03/22/82
-80.00
00
04/07/81
-780.00
00
03/25/80
-288.00
top
(692) 14
s
15
LATED RESULTS IX> NOT REPRESENT OR THE UvfPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN RE DESIGNED WITH TIffi BENEFIT OF OWN. SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH
spread
(CME) WORST EQUITY DATE
WORST EQUITY AMOUNT
00
04/05/94
-197.00
00
03123/93
-108.00
00
04/09/92
-577.00
00
04/05/91
-512.00
00
04116/90
-267.00
00 I
03/27/89
-852.00
001
03115/88
-270.00
001
03125/87
-635.00
001
03112/89
-12.00
00
00
00
03116/83
-6700
00
04/06/82
-410.00
00
03112/81
-62.00
00
03/11/80
-240.00 (1315)
Stop
14
15
es
tn,AlCD RESULTS no NOT REPRESENT FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN ARE DESIGNED WIrn BENEFIT OF HOWN. SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT CAREFill.LY CONSIDER WHETI-lER SUCH
nrn
1982
06/22182
-0.67
08/06/82
1.48
2.15
86000
08/06/82
1981
06122181
-145
08107/81
-1.07
0.38
152.00
08103/81
388.00
1980
06123/80
-2.00
08/07/80
-0.87
1.13
452.00
07129180
712.00
93
Percentage Correct
A veragc Loss on T fades
Protective Sto
1.96
676.57
-0.90
-360.00
1.52
60747
Average Profit on Winning Trades
Average Net Profit Per Trade
860.00
Winners
Losers
Total Trades
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS lJNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULA ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE TIlE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER· OR. OVER-COMPENSATED FOR MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT 1llAT THEY ARE lIINDSIGlIT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOIJNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO A~HIEVE PROFITs OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOW NECESSARILY IMPLY FUTtJRE PROFITS. lliE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMlvlODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD TIlEREFORE CARE TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANC1AL COND1TlON RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSIONS AND SLIPPAGE
_ Ila ~,:O:;
A Decision Table Showing a history of the May Soybean/Wheat spread
Moo"
Bll)' 5111 Ma)' 95 So),bealls(CBOT)ISell 5M May 95 Wheat(
. . ResearchCenter,lnc
Enter on approximately 02112 - Exit on approximately 04/23 CONT YEAR
,~ --.J
ENTRY DATE
ENTRY PRICE
EXIT DATE
EXIT PRICE
PROFIT
PROFIT AMOUNT
BEST EQUITY DATE
BEST EQlnTY AMOUNT
1994
02114/94
325.00
04122/94
344
19.00
950.00
03/23/94
1993
02112/93
231.50
04/23/93
240.25
8.75
437.50
03110/93
1762.50
1237.50
1992
02/12/92
159.50
04/23/92
200.75
41.25
2062.50
04115192
2750.00
1991
02112/91
321.00
04/23/91
312
-9.00
-450.00
03/08/91
250.00
1990
02112/90
209.00
04/23/90
235.5
26.50
1325.00
03/09/90
1875.00
1989
02113/89
309.00
04/21/89
345.5
36.50
1825.00
03122189
2837.50
1988
02/12/88
302.75
04/22/88
348.5
45.75
2287.50
04104/88
3287.50
1987
02112/87
222.50
04/23/87
237.5
15.00
750.00
04/23/87
750.00
1986
02112/86
242.00
04/23/86
243.25
125
62.50
02119186
525.00
1985
02112/85
241.25
04123/85
247.5
6.25
312.50
03119/85
1050.00
1984
02113184
384.75
04/23/84
418.25
33.50
1675.00
03/20/84
3650.00
1983
02114/83
254.50
04122183
296.25
41. 75
2087.50
04122183
2087.50
1982
02112/82
263.50
04/23/82
286.25
22.75
1137.50
04108/82
1525.00
1981
02112/81
305.50
(4/2)/81
34425
38.75
1937.50
04!O9/81
2987.50
1980
02112/80
222.75
04123180
203
-19.75
-987.50
02113/80
Percentage Correct Average Profit on Winning Trades Average Loss on Trades Average Net Profit Per Trade
87
412.50
Protective Sto
25.92
1296.15
Winners
-14.38
-718.75
Losers
1027.50
Total Trades
__ ~~~
_____
HYPOTIlETICAl.. OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT lIMITATIONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAl. PERFORA-fANCE RECORD, SlMUL AC111AL TRADING ALSO, SINCE TI£E TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMill.ATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAl ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO TIlE FACT TIlAT TIlEY ARE HINDSIGHT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE TIIAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO rnOSE SHO NECESSARILY IMPLY FUI1JRE PROFITS. TIIE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. yoU SHOULD TIlEREFORE CAR TRADING IS sUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITioN RESULTS NOT ADflJSTED FOR COMlv{ISSIONS AND SLiPPAGE
-180.00
07128/82 07106/81
-220.00
07121180
-100.00
op
(790) 14 11 15
1
~
ATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN DESIGNED WITH TIlE BENEFIT OF WN SIMULATED RESULTS 00 NOT EFULLY CONSIDER WHETIffiR SUCH
d
(CBOT) WORST EQUITY DATE
WORST EQUITY AMOUNT
0
04/07/94
0
04116/93
-237.50
0
02114/92
-325.00
0
03/25/91
-1787.50
0
02/26/90
-37.50
0
04103189
-375001
0
02116/88
-450.00
0
03/02/87
-1162.50
0
04104/89
-1475.00
0
04/15/85
-500.00
0
02114/84
-25.00
0
02116183
-112.50
-737.50
0
03103/82
-587.50
0
03102/81
-712.50
0
04/09/80
-2437.50
op
(1336) 13 2 __ _
15
LATED RESULTs 00 NOT REPRESENT R THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN E DESIGNED WJrn llffi BENEFIT OF OWN SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REFULLY CONSIDER WHEHffiR SUCH
1982
06/08/82
6570
0611 5/82
6768
198.00
0611 1182
302.00
1981
06/08/81
7360
06/15/81
7386
26.00
06/10181
150.00
1980
06/09180
4246
06/13/80
4288
42.00
0611 1/80
Percentage Correct
93
Average Profit on Winning Trades Average Loss on Trades
lA verage Net Profit Per Trade
70.00
Protective Stop
563.14
563.14
-176.00
-176.00
513.87
513.87
Winners Losers
Total Trades
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULA ACTUAL TRADING ALSO, SINCE TIIE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED THE RESULTS MAy HAVE UNDER· OR OVER-COtvtPENSATED FOR MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT l1lAT THEY ARE HINDSIGlIT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOW NECESSARIL Y INfPLY FUTURE PROFITS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTlAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CARE TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGlIT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSIONS AND SLIPPAGE
,&aliA. I
A Decision Table Showing a history of the July Soybean OilJSoymeal sprea Moo"
Buy Jut 95 Soybeall Oi/(CBOT)ISell Jul95 Soybeall Meat(C
,
Research Cenler, Inc
Enter on approximately 06/17 - Exit on approximately 06129 CONT YEAR
-(...)
......
co
ENTRY DATE
ENTRY PRICE
EXIT DATE
PROFIT AMOUNT
EXIT PRICE
BEST EQUITY DATE
BEST EQillTY AMOUNT
1994
06117/94
-3722
06/29/94
-3406
316.00
06/21/94
776.00
1993
06117/93
-6314
06/29/93
-6264
50.00
06118193
\78.00
1992
06117192
-5700
06/29/92
-5804
-104.00
06/19/92
124.00
1991
06117/91
-5566
06128/91
-4942
624.00
06/28/91
624.00
1990
06118/90
-2862
06/29/90
-3140
-278,00
06/19/90
198.00
1989
06/19/89
-9892
06129189
-9138
754.00
06/22/89
830.00
1988
06117/88
-13504
06/29/88
-9850
3654.00
06129/88
3654.00
1987
06117/87
-8532
06/29/87
-7344
1188.00
06122/87
1286.00
1986
06117/86
-4866
06/27/86
-4788
78.00
06/25/86
204.00
1985
06117/85
6262
06128/85
6134
-128.00
1984
06/18/84
1472
06/29/84
2502
1030.00
06/26/84
1198.00
1983
06117/83
-6024
06/29/83
-5782
242.00
06/29/83
242.00
1982
06/17182
-6860
06129/82
-6826
34.00
06128/82
120.00
1981
06117/81
-7222
06/29/81
-6586
636.00
06/25/81
878.00
1980
06117/80
-4044
06/27/80
-3860
18400
06/23/80
Percentage Correct Average Profit on Winning Trades
lAverage Loss on Trades Average Net Profit Per Tra~
188.00
Protecti ve Sto
80 732.50
732.50
-170.00
-\70.00
552.00
552.00
Winners Losers Total Trades
HYPOTIIETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFOR1v1ANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULA ACnJAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXEClITED THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR hMRKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMtR.ATED TRADING PROORAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT TI-lAT TIIEY ARE HINDSIGHT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SrMILAR TO l1{OSE SHOW NECESSARILY IflAPLY FUTURE PROFITS THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMM:GOITY CONTRACTS CAN BE:. SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD TIIEREFORE CARE TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COfvll..1ISSIONS AND SLIPPAGE
06/12/80
op
-2.00 (668) 14
I 15
ATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT THE IIvWACT. IF ANY, OF CERTAIN DESIGNED WITH llffi BENEFIT OF WN. SIl\.1ULATED RESULTS 00 NOT EFULL Y CONSIDER V/HElHER SUCH
ad
CBOT)
op
WORST EQUITY DATE 06/23/93
WORST EQUITY AMOUNT -168.00
06126/92
-138.00
06119/91
-276.00
06/27/90
-446.00
06/21/88
-800.00
06118/86
-42.00
06120/85
-824.00
06/20/84
-122.00
06124/83
-130.00
06/21/82
-196.00
06/19/80
-86.00 (718) 12 3 15
ATED RESULTS 00 NOT REPRESENT TIIE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN DESIGNED WITH TI£E BENEFIT OF WN. SIMULATED RESUlTS 00 NOT EFULL Y CONSIDER WHETIIER SUCH
You will note that beneath each Decision Table there is section showing statistical information that helps you to get a better overall picture of the history shown above, year by year. You see the following: 1. The Percentage of years in which the spread worked in accordance with the Optirnized Entry and Exit dates. 2. The Average Profit on those trades which were Winning Trades. 3. The Average Loss on those trades that did not work within the optirnized dates. 4. The Average Net Profit Per Trade, i.e., the average net profit from all trades both winners and losers. 5. A suggested Protective Stop. The stop is an optimized amount based on the fifteen year history shown in the Decision Table. 6. The Total Number of Winners in fifteen years. 7. The Total number of Losers in fifteen years. 8. The Total number of trades in fifteen years.
320
Appendix C
Resources
Seasonal and Spread Services Commodity Futures Spreads, A Biweekly Futures Spread Letter, by Bob McGovem. If you enjoy monitoring or even trading the spreads offered by a multi-year, oldtimey veteran commodity trader, then Bob McGovern is your man. You can learn a ton from his biweekly letter. Bob uses good old-fashioned logic and reasoning in selecting his spread trades. He is a wealth of information on the economy, politics, and markets. [Bob McGovern, 30882 Colonial Place, Laguna Niguel, CA 92677. Phone: 714-363-6667 Fax: 714-363-6672 E-Mail: [email protected]] Moore Research Center Report, A Monthly Seasonal and Spread Report, compiled by the staff at Moore Research Center, Inc. A thorough and comprehensive report listing upcoming computer generated seasonal and seasonal spread trades, along with a recap of trades still current and ongoing. Trades have up to 15 year reliability. This report features commentaries by members of the staff as well as illuminating articles by some of the top names in futures trading. The report contains charts, optimized entry and exit dates, and strategies. This report is the Cadillac of seasonal trading information. [Moore Research Center, 321 West 13th Ave., Eugene, OR 97401. Phone: 503-484-7256 or 800-927-7259 Fax: 503-484-2202 e-mail: [email protected] World Wide Webb Home Page: http://www.mrci.com] The $upertrader's Almanac by Frank A. Taucher. A yearly Almanac and reference manual listing computer generated seasonal and seasonal spread trades and 321
computer generated exotic seasonal and seasonal spread trades. Trades have seven year reliability. The Almanac contains a plethora of philosophy, techniques, and astrological data pertaining to the futures markets. [Market Movements, Inc. 5212 East 69th Place, Tulsa, OK 74136. Phone: 918493-2897] The Seasonal Trader Report - Futures Price and Seasonal Factor Data Book, A quarterly report listing trades having a seven to ten year reliability. (Seasonal Trader Report 889 Ridge Lake Blvd., Suite 350, Memphis, IN 38120. Phone: 901-766-4510 or 800-526-4612]
Seasonal and Spread Books Techni-Seasonal Commodity Trading, by Everet H. Beckner, Windsor Books, P.O. Box 280, Brightwaters, NY, 11718. The Handbook ofCommoditv Spreads, by Wayne Esserman, P.G. Box 201, Delphi, IN 46923.
Materials - Products and Services from Ross Trading Inc. Trading by the Book Position trading primarily from daily charts and focus on 4 major entry techniques: Trading Ranges, 1-2-3's, Ross Hooks, Ledges. Basic use of oscillators and moving averages Trading by the Minute Intraday trading in various time frames. Major, Minor and Intermediate entry signals. Trading organization-and issues. Trading is a Business The trading business, organization and management. Trading psychology and temperment. Trading entrys, exits and warnings. Tricks, techniques and analysis. Trading the Ross Hook Ross Hooks - the basics, variations and tricks. Trade filters, rules, and studies - Volatility Stop, Stochastics, Envelopes, Bollinger Bands, MA Bands and other filters. 322
Trading Order Power Strategies Four, one-hour audio cassettes and manual. Rules, entry orders and exit orders. Orders for options and spreads. Important considerations and strategy development. Trading Optures and Futions Combining options and futures into a powerful, trading strategy. Using Optures and Futions to offset weaknesses of trading only options or only futures. Create a "income pump" and increase profits. Traders Notebook The monthly educational teaching letter - covering: Futures, Economy, Other Investments and Implications on you. Chart Reading, Technicals, Questions/Answers, Considerations. Introduction to Futures Seminar One day seminar - the basics and the foundation. Markets, exchanges, basic chart reading, how money is made. Papertrading. Resources and your educational path to trading success. Introduction to Options Seminar One day seminar - the basics and the foundation. Nomenclature and terms explained. Basic option strategies. Resources and your educational path to trading success. 911 -Get Help Seminar Two day seminar - focus on the mechanics and execution. Markets, environments, pits and a fundamentals review. Chart reading. Defensive Trading Seminar Two day seminar - focus on hedging, spreads, seasonal trades and seasonal spreads. Primary defensive techniques to manage the trade. Strategic trading and the evolution of the trade. Trade the Truth Seminar Three day seminar - Bar-Anatomy. Interrelated Determinants in Trading. The trading business, organization and management. Extensive chart reading and practical tricks and techniques. 323
Trading Optures and Futions Seminar Three day seminar - market analysis and anatomy. Basic and Advanced Optures - Basic and Advanced Futions. Chart reading and the applications of Optures and Fution strategies. Referral and Customer Services We keep an extensive database of resources and references which we are happy to share including: Hardware, Software, Brokerage, Research materials, Reference Materials, Books by other Authors and Systems Analysis. From our own research and contributions by others.
324
