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Enterprise and Venture Capital
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Enterprise and Venture Capital A business builder’s and investor’s handbook
FOURTH EDITION
Christopher C. Golis MA MBA FSIA FAICD
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This edition published in 2002 Copyright © Christopher C. Golis 1989, 1993, 1998, 2002 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. The Australian Copyright Act 1968 (the Act) allows a maximum of one chapter or 10 per cent of this book, whichever is the greater, to be photocopied by any educational institution for its educational purposes provided that the educational institution (or body that administers it) has given a remuneration notice to Copyright Agency Limited (CAL) under the Act. Allen & Unwin 83 Alexander Street Crows Nest NSW 2065 Australia Phone: (61 2) 8425 0100 Fax: (61 2) 9906 2218 Email:
[email protected] Web: www.allenandunwin.com National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry: Golis, Christopher C. Enterprise and venture capital: a business builder’s and investor’s handbook. 4th ed. Bibliography. Includes index. ISBN 1 86508 650 9. 1. Venture capital—Australia. 2. Business enterprises— Australia—Finance. 3. Entrepreneurship—Australia. 4. Capitalists and financiers—Australia. I. Title. 338.040994 Typeset in 10.5/12.5 pt Caslon by Midland Typesetters, Maryborough Printed by South Wind Productions, Singapore 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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FAVOURITE SAYINGS Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat. The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand. Sun Tzu
Profits are an opinion, cash is a fact. Anonymous
Hope is not a strategy. M. Henos
Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment. Barry LePatner
There are two kinds of people, those who do the work and those who take the credit. Try to be in the first group; there is less competition there. Indira Gandhi
The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it. George Bernard Shaw Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power. Abraham Lincoln
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When men speak of the future, the gods laugh. Chinese proverb
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself— and you are the easiest person to fool. Richard Feynman
A compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he has the biggest piece. Ludwig Erhard
We divide business plans into three categories: candy, vitamins, and painkillers. We throw away the candy. We look at vitamins. We really like painkillers. We especially like addictive painkillers! K. Fong
There are only four ways for a venture capitalist to exit a deal: IPO, M&A, redemption, or bankruptcy. You can divorce your wife, but you can’t divorce us! J. Kelly
Entrepreneurs have to be comfortable with never having their desk clear at the end of the day. P. Petit
Look out the window, not in the mirror. Anonymous
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If there had only been government research establishments in the Stone Age, by now we would have had absolutely superb flint tools. But no one would have invented steel. A. C. Clarke
Take the money. S. Fleming
The money you see on the table at the time of the close is all you are ever going to see. John Parselle
There is no question that irrespective of the horse, the race or the odds, it is the jockey (the entrepreneur) who fundamentally determines whether the venture capitalist will place a bet at all. Professor Ian MacMillan, Wharton Business School
Not houses finely roofed, nor the stones of walls well built, nor canals, nor dockyards, make the city, but men able to use their opportunity. Alceus (600 BC)
Every company I’ve ever been involved in looked like a piece of Swiss cheese up close. Dick Kramlich, New Enterprise Associates and a VC since 1978
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There are three times to sell: early, late, and exactly at the right time. Selling at the right time all the time is intellectually impossible, selling too late is foolish. That leaves selling early. Nick Ferguson, Chairman, Schroder Venture Holdings
When the tide goes out, you get to see who’s been swimming naked. Warren Buffet
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Contents
Favourite sayings Tables Figures Acronyms Acknowledgements Introduction—playing the game
v xi xiii xv xvii xix
Part One Starting a business 11 The entrepreneur—have you got what it takes? 12 The market—how to analyse it 13 The competitive advantage—why will your business win? 14 The initial financial analysis 15 Taking over an existing business
21 26 33
Part Two The venture capital spectrum 16 How the game is played 17 Seed and start-up capital 18 Expansion capital 19 Funding for management buy-outs
41 60 77 85
Part Three Raising the money—what entrepreneurs must do 10 How to write a business plan 11 Choosing the appropriate structure
3 8
95 101
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Preparing a business plan—market analysis and market strategy Preparing a business plan—the financial analysis Preparing a business plan—organisational and operational issues Choosing a venture capitalist Negotiations with venture capitalists
111 129 143 150 154
Part Four Investing the money—what investors must do 17 Screening criteria and due diligence 18 Valuation 19 Structuring the deal 20 Post-investment activities 21 Exit mechanisms
165 185 200 213 220
Part Five Managing a venture capital fund 22 Fund formation and structures 23 How to run a venture capital fund 24 Portfolio management
239 262 276
Appendices A Pro-forma cash flow projection, income statements and balance sheets B Sample spreadsheet for investment monitoring
288 293
Glossary Bibliography Index
295 307 309
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Tables
14.1 Monthly profit and loss with percentages 16.1 Funding requirements for a high-growth company ($000) 16.2 Pro-forma financing history of a high-growth company 16.3 Australian and New Zealand venture capital investment levels 1996–2000 18.1 AVCAL/Venture Economics summary of the venture capital industry 18.2 A comparison of the US and Australian venture capital industries 19.1 A typical balance sheet for a small MBO 11.1 The 125 per cent R&D tax deduction 12.1 Pricing a new product 13.1 Break-even variations 13.2 Working capital ratios in sales-days for listed companies 16.1 An example of option value 18.1 Step-up levels for various industries 18.2 Growth stages in a company 18.3 The stage financing model 18.4 Implied annual compound growth rates 20.1 Venture capitalists’ non-financial support 21.1 Australian venture capital exits (year ending 30 June)
30 51 54 59 82 84 88 106 119 134 139 162 187 193 198 199 214 235
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22.1 Legal organisation of Australian venture capital funds 22.2 Relative size of PDF sector 22.3 Sources of funding for Australian venture capital funds 22.4 A scaledown management fee structure for a $30 million fund 23.1 Dispersion of venture capital investment by size of investment 23.2 Investment by region 23.3 Investment by stage of company (ABS 2000) 23.4 Investment by stage of company (AVCJ 2000) 24.1 The probability of success 24.2 A typical VC portfolio 24.3 Kleiner-Perkins’s first fund 24.4 Australian venture capital investment by industry 24.5 Venture capital portfolio model
241 248 249 255 266 267 267 267 277 278 278 282 285
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Figures
12.1 15.1 16.1 16.2
16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 17.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 12.1 12.2 12.3 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6
Porter’s five-factor industry model 18 Increasing equity in an LBO 35 Factors affecting the venture capital industry 42 US venture capital partnership returns versus public market returns—funds formed 1969–2000 (quarterly returns) 43 Funds raised in stages 51 Dilution of founders’ equity 52 Increasing value of founders’ equity 52 Example of a shareholding post listing 53 The Double Whammy 55 The four stages of development for a new technology growth firm 65 Business structures 102 Trading trust structure 103 Company structure 104 Competitive analysis 115 The learning curve 118 The product life cycle 127 Typical division of the sales dollar 130 Typical break-even chart 131 Manufacturing company break-even chart 132 Retail company break-even chart 133 The operating cash cycle 135 Cumulative cash flow curve 138
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18.1 Australian P/E ratios 1983–2001 18.2 Ten-year bond rate 1983–2001 21.1 Funds raised in Australian IPOs 1/1/200 to 30/6/2001 22.1 Pooled development registrations for the financial years 1993–2000 22.2 PDFs: funds raised versus funds invested 22.3 Cumulative cash flow curve for an institution investing across five VCF managers 23.1 How a venture capital company operates (after Tyebjee & Bruno) 23.2 St George Development Capital Limited operations 24.1 VC returns—Australia versus USA, 1986–99 24.2 Venture capital model—required rates of return
191 193 223 247 247 250 263 273 279 286
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Acronyms
ABS ARD ASC ASX ATG AVCAL AVCJ BLEC COGS CSR DEC DISR EBIT EMDG ESOP ESOT FAI GIRD IIF IPO LBO M&A
Australian Bureau of Statistics American Research and Development Australian Securities Commission Australian Stock Exchange Australian Technology Group Australian Venture Capital Association Limited Australian Venture Capital Journal Capital (formerly Business Loans and Equity Capital Ltd) cost of goods sold CSR Limited Digital Equipment Corporation Department of Industry, Science and Resources earnings before interest and taxation Export Market Development Grants Scheme Employee Stock Ownership Plan Employee Stock Ownership Trust FAI Insurances Grants for Industrial Research and Development Innovation Investment Fund initial public offering leveraged buy-out Mergers and Acquisitions
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MAMECH MBI MBO MIC NASDAQ OCC PDF PMA R&D ROCE ROE SBIC SFG USM USP VCF VCM VEDC
Market, Advantage, Management, Endorsements, Capital, History management buy-in management buy-out management and investment companies National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation system operating cash cycle pooled development fund positive mental attitude research and development return on capital employed return on equity Small Business Investment Corporation self-financing growth rate unlisted securities market unique selling proposition venture capital fund venture capital manager Victorian Economic Development Corporation
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Acknowledgements
It is now some seventeen years since my first involvement in the Australian venture capital industry, when in May 1984 I was successfully involved in selling investors on the idea by way of the BT Innovation Limited prospectus. Since that time the Australian venture capital industry has shown a remarkable if somewhat tortuous development. Not only has the industry grown dramatically both in Australia and overseas, but so has the literature both in written and in electronic form. There are now a number of websites dedicated to the venture capital industry and many published interviews and articles. Just as important, the surveys of the venture capital industry have come of age, which means there is much more quantitative information available. Another book has also entered the Australian venture capital canon, Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained by Bill Ferris, and published by Allen & Unwin. This provides an excellent insight into how a venture capitalist operates and is highly recommended. On the practical level I would like to thank the authors of the 4000 business plans I have read so far and the 50 entrepreneurs who were selected for investment. I would also like to thank Vicki Mead and Kylie Schumacher for their considerable assistance, and our good friends at St George Bank, especially Peter Gow. Victor Bivell, editor of the Australian Venture Capital Journal, a monthly publication recommended for any entrepreneur or investor, also provided help and assistance.
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Anyone who has any questions about the material in this book, or has a business seeking equity funding, should contact me at Nanyang Ventures via email:
[email protected] Once again I thank my daughters Louisa and Laura, and my wife Vivienne, for their encouragement and patience. Finally, the proviso of the first edition still stands. I have taken all care to ensure the information contained in this book is true at the time of publication. However, I cannot represent the information as accurate or complete because of the changes that are continually occurring in the business, government, financial, legislative and taxation environments. The changes in the four years since the third edition have been significant. Readers should not use or rely on this book as a substitute for detailed advice or as a basis for formulating business decisions.
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Introduction—playing the game Venture capital, in the sense of financing new ventures, has existed throughout history. One of the more famous examples would have been the financing by Queen Isabella of Spain of Christopher Columbus’s expedition to the New World in 1492. Before receiving funding from the Queen, Columbus wandered around the offices of the venture capitalists of the time, namely the courts of Europe, seeking finance for what must have appeared a ridiculous venture. The business plan, to sail three ships due west across the Atlantic Ocean, was based on the self-evidently absurd hypothesis that the world was round. The results were beyond Isabella’s wildest expectations. The mineral wealth extracted from the New World laid the foundations for the Spanish domination of Europe for the next one hundred years. The Americans converted the ad hoc support of ventures to systematic work—that is, an industry—after World War II. General Doriot, a French emigré and influential professor at the Harvard Business School during the 1930s, rose to the rank of Brigadier General during World War II. After the war, he founded the first venture capital company, American Research & Development (ARD). In 1956 General Doriot made one of the more satisfactory venture capital investments—a majority investment of $70 000 in a fledgling company started by a young engineer, Kenneth Olsen. Over the next fourteen years, Doriot guided Olsen and his company until by 1971 the $70 000 investment was valued at $350 million. Olsen’s idea was to connect
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two inventions, the television and the batch computer, and produce an ‘interactive’ computer. The company was Digital Equipment Corporation. The annualised compound return on the investment was 84 per cent. This book deals with true entrepreneurs, defined as the builders of businesses, and venture capital from an Australian perspective. While Australia has had a long tradition of business-building entrepreneurs, the formal venture capital industry started officially in May 1984 with the beginning of the government-sponsored Management and Investment Company Program. Since then there has been a boom-bustboom cycle of venture capital activity. In this book we will examine in detail entrepreneurs and venture capital intermediaries. While the number of successful entrepreneurs and professional venture capitalists in Australia has grown significantly in the past five years, the concepts discussed in this book have far wider applications. Among the people who should find this book of use would be students of business and commerce, private investors and those people who wish to start or run their own business. This book is aimed at people working in and building growth companies. It is not aimed at people running shops, consultancies or restaurants. Nevertheless, the principles enunciated here would be helpful in analysing the potential success of a small business. Reading this book will not automatically make you rich. The primary requirements for a successful business remain a receptive market, a significant competitive advantage, sufficient capital, good people, tenacity and luck. However, if reading this book does not make you rich it could well stop you becoming poor. Even after eighteen years in the venture capital industry I am still amazed by the amount of time, effort and money invested in products that have little or limited chance of success. I am further distressed by how poor organisation and financial structure have ruined potentially excellent ideas. The book is divided into five parts. The first part deals with entrepreneurs and tries to teach them how to analyse markets,
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products and the financials of a company. It finishes with a chapter on the easiest way of getting to run your own business, which is to take over an existing company. Unfortunately, the word ‘entrepreneur’ in Australia still has some negative connotations. In Australia, instead of meaning a business builder as it does in other parts of the English-speaking world, it has a number of disparaging associations and for many people is synonymous with a hustling wheeler-dealer. The fault for this shift in meaning was due in part to the business media that glorified individuals who subsequently either ended in jail or fled the country. Fortunately for Australia, this perception has begun to change. Both of the major political parties have recognised that to build a prosperous, growing and full-employment economy it is necessary to have individuals who can commercialise ideas, not just create them. The second part of the book looks at the spectrum of venture capital available. In Australia, the term ‘venture capital’ is sometimes treated as synonymous with high technology business start-ups. Overseas, the term covers not only start-up and seed capital, but also development capital to fund growth and acquisition capital for buy-outs. This wider definition is becoming increasingly accepted in Australia and is the one we will use. Simply put, venture capital may be regarded as an equity investment where investors expect significant capital gains in return for accepting the risk they may lose all their equity. Typically the investment is in either a privately held company or a publicly listed company that has just started and does not have a track record of producing dividends for investors. The other major form of venture capital investment is in the leveraged buy-out of stable, mature businesses. Here the buy-out is financed with a larger than usual proportion of debt, placing the equity component in a correspondingly riskier position. The final chapter of the second part examines leveraged and management buy-out financing. Part III is about the nexus between the entrepreneur and the investor. It teaches the entrepreneur what form of investment vehicle to choose, how to prepare a business plan attractive to
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investors, what one should look for in a business and how to negotiate with prospective investors. Part IV reverses roles and examines the deal from the viewpoint of the investor. The investor is taught what makes a successful investment, how to investigate a proposal, how to do valuations and structure shareholdings, what investor involvement should occur after investing and finally how to exit from an investment. The final part of the book is aimed at those investors who are in the fortunate position of having more than one investment, and describes the characteristics and idiosyncrasies of raising and managing a venture capital fund. Nanyang Ventures now manages three funds and the art of venture capital fund management has generated considerable literature. We live in the most rapidly changing period of human history. When I was first learning the craft of selling, a key lesson was that change in an organisation usually meant opportunity for the salesperson. As entrepreneurs make products that people buy, change favours the entrepreneur even more than the salesperson. Numerous studies have shown how wealth is concentrated in few hands. Typically 20 per cent of the population of a country controls 80 per cent of the wealth. What is not often realised is the turnover within the wealthy 20 per cent. By definition the entrepreneurs of tomorrow are the young unknown people of today. Those who learn today how to play the game are the ones who will dislodge the current occupants of the top 20 per cent and have fun in the process.
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Part One STARTING A BUSINESS
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The entrepreneur—have you got what it takes? When trying to establish whether you are an entrepreneur you need to distinguish between ‘the entrepreneur’ and ‘entrepreneurial tendencies’. A useful metaphor is to compare an artist with a person who has artistic tendencies. There are many people with artistic tendencies. These individuals visit museums and galleries, attend auctions and collect or perhaps go to arts and craft classes. On the other hand, there are few people who have the necessary combination of creativity, talent and persistence to call themselves artists. In a similar fashion one can distinguish between natural entrepreneurs and people with entrepreneurial tendencies. However, it is easier to become an entrepreneur than an artist. Many more people can satisfy the requirements of the entrepreneur than those of the artist. It is easier to be a successful businessperson than a successful opera singer. Let us begin by considering some of the characteristics of entrepreneurs. One feature is a high energy level. Entrepreneurs as a whole get up early in the morning. Entrepreneurs hate to stay in bed. They tend to be enthusiastic people who realise the only thing more contagious than enthusiasm is the lack of it. The next quality is an interest in money. Typically a natural entrepreneur will have had jobs in childhood and understand naturally the value of money and how to use it as a resource. Bill Gates, for example, started his first business at the age of
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sixteen and was filling in company tax forms by the age of eighteen. The third characteristic is a creative attitude towards obstacles. When faced with obstacles typical entrepreneurs find a new way of overcoming them. Most people are conservative. They do not like changes to occur and prefer life to become a habit. Consequently, most people respond to proposals for change with resistance and doubt. The role of entrepreneurs is to create new businesses. They conflict with this widespread conservatism. Most people are constantly putting obstacles in the paths of entrepreneurs trying to achieve their goals. The ability to overcome these obstacles with creative solutions and do it again and again and still maintain enthusiasm is a sign of an entrepreneur. A concept which may be familiar to some readers is known as positive mental attitude (PMA for short). PMA has long been put forward as a cure for poor sales performance if not the world’s ills. Optimistic tenacity can be a most useful weapon. I remember a top salesman telling me he liked getting the first refusal from a prospect. His philosophy was that, because it usually takes five trial closes to make a sale, when he received his first refusal he knew he had only four more closes to go. What distinguishes the entrepreneur from the average salesperson is that while the salesperson returns repeatedly with the same closing technique and fails, the entrepreneur comes up with a new design to overcome the obstacle and often succeeds. Phillip Kahn, founder of Borland International, one of the first successful personal computer software companies, described how in 1983, after Borland had developed its first software product, there were no funds available for advertising. He wanted to put a full page ad in the computer magazine Byte but the cost was $20 000. He arranged prior to the advertising salesperson’s arrival for two extra temporary staff to be hired and for his friends to ring the office constantly during the meeting. He also had on his desk a media plan for all the computer magazines, with Byte crossed out. The salesperson ‘inadvertently’
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noticed the omission and asked why. He was told the media plan was done and that Byte was not the right audience. After a few moments’ persuasion Kahn ‘reluctantly’ agreed to place a one-page advertisement on deferred payment terms. That advertisement generated the first $150 000 of sales. Borland grew from this first step into a $250 million revenue company within thirteen years. Entrepreneurs are famous for their risk-taking ability. However, it is my experience that successful entrepreneurs are not risk-takers when compared with gamblers or speculators. Entrepreneurs usually operate on stretched resources, yet carry out a realistic evaluation of the risks. They try to establish a position where the risk is limited and the reward is substantial. In other words, they tend to look at risk–reward ratios while gamblers think only of the rewards. The four qualities of enthusiasm, creative tendency, calculated risk-taking and energy are necessary ingredients in the personality of an entrepreneur. You can establish whether you have sufficient amounts of these qualities by taking on positions where they are required. At the same time you will gain further skills and experience. The most common reason for rejection of a business plan is inadequate management. This alone covers a multitude of reasons for rejection. However, the proven ability to sell is most important. At least three to four years’ employment in sales and sales management, particularly in the area of corporate goods or corporate services, should be regarded as critical training for the future. Corporate selling is useful because the selling cycle typically takes several months and usually requires a multi-level sale. The buying organisation contains a number of decision-makers and recommenders and a salesperson’s success depends on style in communicating with these various individuals working at different levels in the organisation. Running a business requires the same communication skills plus the ability to negotiate with and analyse people. Not only are these skills necessary when dealing with customers, but similar skills are required when recruiting and motivating
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employees. Finally, the entrepreneur must be able to convince financiers, be they the banks, finance companies or venture capitalists, that they are as important as the customers and employees. Many of the biographies of successful entrepreneurs demonstrate either a natural selling ability or several years learning the skills of selling. A good entrepreneur is typically a good communicator and is interested in the Engish language. Most are excellent communicators in the written form and write business letters in strong, simple English. One reason why venture capitalists prefer the business plan to be produced by the entrepreneur rather than the financial adviser is that the plan then provides a good indication of the communication skills of the entrepreneur. The next skill one likes to see in the entrepreneur is an understanding of numbers. A businessperson needs to understand the principles of accounting. Gauss, one of the greatest mathematicians who ever lived, called double-entry bookkeeping the greatest mathematical achievement of mankind. I am constantly amazed to meet the number of potential entrepreneurs who do not understand the basic principles of balance sheets, profit and loss accounts, cash flows and so on. Many do not even know how to calculate the break-even point of their business. Far too many entrepreneurs leave the figures to their accountants. Successful entrepreneurs understand how to read and analyse accounts. Articles about entrepreneurs often describe how they started in business by working at selling jobs during the day and studying accounting at night. Night courses on accounting are available at many institutions. In addition, the Securities Institute of Australia has produced an excellent home study course on understanding annual reports. Once you understand how to read company reports the next stage is to learn how to analyse them. In later chapters we will discuss some of the most useful techniques of financial analysis, but just reading these chapters is inadequate. The way to learn company financial analysis is to actually do it and have money riding on the result. One way to achieve this understanding is to invest small
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amounts of money in two or three public companies and develop the habit of both recording and analysing their progress. The best companies are those that are in the same or similar industries. Over time you will develop a feel for what are the ratios and structures that represent a successful company. Another skill the entrepreneur needs is an understanding of financial and company structuring, a topic dealt with more fully in later chapters. Entrepreneurs should be familiar with the difference between equity and debt, with the roles and responsibilities of directors and the law governing companies and shareholders. The other part of the legal process the entrepreneur must understand is the law of contract. This is most easily gained when working as a salesperson, but again there are simple books and courses run by such bodies as the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Another way of gaining entrepreneurial experience is to attend the Enterprise Workshop. The Enterprise Workshop is a nine-month program that starts every February. The Enterprise Workshop operates independently in each state and is funded by a combination of government grants, corporate sponsorship and participants’ fees. Participants learn first how to prepare a business plan. They then form into groups and prepare a business plan for an actual invention. The plans are then judged in a state competition and the state winners entered into a national competition. A number of successful companies have been conceived at Enterprise Workshops. Ideally the best preparation an entrepreneur can have is to work as a general manager in charge of a profit centre for a large company. Several years learning the disciplines of profit centre management are invaluable. However, there is still nothing to compare to starting up and running your own business. It is the one item on the résumé that gets venture capitalists excited. The question they ask is, ‘How many times has the CEO been around the block?’ By this they mean, ‘How many times has the entrepreneur started and sold out of a business?’ There is a key difference between management and ownership—and true entrepreneurs understand that difference.
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The market—how to analyse it In 1962 The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas S. Kuhn was published. This book effectively demolished the commonly held view of science being an objective progression towards the truth. Kuhn established a different philosophy. He said each science had several theories that were widely accepted by nearly all the scientists involved. They conducted continuous experiments ‘confirming’ these generally held theories. This type of work he called ‘normal’ science. Gradually more and more experiments would generate complications to a theory that would destroy that theory’s initial simple elegance. Then an individual would inevitably put forward a radical new theory that would explain all the earlier idiosyncrasies but would meet violent opposition from the established scientific community. Kuhn called this the paradigm shift. Afterwards, when the new paradigm was accepted, the scientists rewrote the history of science to reinforce the idea of steady progression. Business too has its paradigm shifts. Two of the more famous would be double-entry bookkeeping in the sixteenth century and joint stock companies in the seventeenth. In the twentieth century there have been several paradigm shifts, including the introduction of the marketing concept. The previous paradigm was based on production. Provided the product worked and the price was reasonable, businesspeople assumed the product would automatically sell. Henry Ford best summed up the
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production philosophy in a statement about the Model T automobile: ‘The customer could have any colour as long as it was black.’
THE MARKETING CONCEPT The marketing concept takes the opposite view. Successful businesspeople continually examine and investigate their markets and develop products to satisfy their customers’ needs. A former president of Revlon epitomised the marketing philosophy when he said, ‘In the factory Revlon makes lipstick, but in the marketplace it sells hope.’ In the next two chapters we will explain some simple techniques for analysing markets and products. They are not meant to be comprehensive but they should provide the aspiring entrepreneur with the means of testing whether the product has a role in the marketplace. The economic institutions of the world have expended much time and effort analysing markets. A classic rule of business success is to copy those practices and policies that contribute to your competitor’s success. Let us now examine the methods by which economists analyse a market. Demand and supply analysis is basic to the procedure. Indeed, an old dictum of economists tells them to remember they have two eyes—one for demand and the other for supply. Let us first look at demand analysis, by which economists try to establish what is the demand type for the product, the market size, the growth rates and the buyer trends.
DEMAND ANALYSIS Step 1: establish the demand type Typically the economist divides demand into three types: consumer, distributor and producer. The most familiar is consumer demand. The demographics for consumers are well known and documented. Not only are the population and
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dwelling statistics available but so are the results of expenditure surveys and so on. It is thus easy to establish the consumer demand for many products. To take a simple example, a new shopping mall has shop premises available and you and a friend wish to set up a fashion boutique. The area is middle class. On a map you draw up the catchment area for your shop. First you draw a series of midpoints between the mall and the surrounding competitive malls and then a rough circle joining up the midpoints. The next step is to establish the number of households in the area. Ringing up the local council that makes up the largest segment of your catchment area and finding out how many domestic rate notices it sends achieves this step. You then multiply that number by the ratio of the local council area to the catchment area to establish the number of households. Your calculations indicate there are 19 000 households in the catchment area. You go to your favourite search engine, enter ‘Australian household expenditure on women’s clothing’, go to the appropriate Australian Bureau of Statistics webpage and discover the average weekly expenditure per household on women’s clothing was $9. A few seconds on a calculator tells you the total annual expenditure in your catchment area is $8.89 million. You also note from one website that between 1993–94 and 1998–99, spending on clothing and footwear fell by 5 per cent. Notably, the CPI recorded no price change for clothing over this period. There are 36 shops in your catchment area. Add your shop and assume everything else is equal, and you have potential annual sales of $247 000. Of course all things are not equal; establishing the degree of inequality is the subject of the next chapter. The next type of demand is distributor demand. A good example of this is a Nanyang Ventures investment, Nu-Korc, which manufactures extruded plastic wine corks. Many people know that Australian wine exports have grown dramatically. In 1990–91, the UK accounted for 25 per cent of Australian wine exports, taking 13.5 ML. By the end of 2000, the UK recorded
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a 17.3 per cent annual compound growth in volume to just under 150 ML, and accounted for 48 per cent of total Australian wine export sales. The value of wine sold to the UK increased by 14.1 per cent to A$626 million. Australia now has 15 per cent of the UK wine market. What many people do not know is that about 80 per cent of the wine sold in the UK goes through the supermarket chains and these organisations above all else do not want to deal with returns. Therefore they are demanding that for drink-now wine costing under $10 per bottle, plastic wine closures be used. The final type of demand is producer or industrial demand. This refers to the demand of companies or governments for products or services that help the organisation produce the products they provide to the marketplace. Raw materials, business computers and merchant banking are examples of products whose sales are determined by producer demand.
Step 2: establish the correct size of the market The next question is, How big is the market for the business entity? A common reason for business failure is overestimation of the size of the market and inclusion in the market estimate of prospects who would never buy anything from the business entity. To establish the size of the market you need a clear picture in your mind of the person who is going to buy your product. Let us assume you have the opportunity to obtain Australian distribution rights for a new form of imported bath gel that retails for $15, each bottle lasting about twelve months. Despite large expenditures on advertising and marketing it is difficult to envisage a household having more than one bottle of gel at a time. Thus you could define the potential market as all the households in Australia (say 8 million). One estimate for potential annual sales would be $120 million. The next question to ask yourself is which households would buy your product? Since bath gel is a luxury or fad item bought by the upper income households, the potential market is now
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reduced to, say, 10–20 per cent of the total households in Australia, or $12–$24 million. But you will not be selling direct to the households. You will sell to retail pharmacies, of which there are 5400. They will want a 50 per cent mark-up on this product and will only provide an initial order of a dozen bottles. If the product is successful they tell you they would expect to place the same order once a month. The market now shrinks to about $6 million. Again, you will only be able to sell to the pharmacies that serve upper income localities, so you have to apply the same 10–20 per cent rule—and the market potential now shrinks to about $1 million. Just having a potential market is not enough; the company must penetrate the market and obtain market share. Again there are some common rules worth remembering. First, it is rare for any business to gain more than one-third market share and it is rare for a product to build up market share at more than 2–3 per cent a year. Thus for our hypothetical bath gel we are probably looking at a maximum annual sales of say $250 000–$300 000 and initial sales of probably $50 000–$75 000. Although this analysis may appear curt it is far more thorough than many experts’ reports on products for companies that have listed on Australian share markets. The market for a new engine has been defined as all the new cars built in the world when it is really the car manufacturers. The market for a new rapid paint hardener has been described as the paint sold to industrial users throughout the world, and so on. When defining the size of the market the entrepreneur should try to establish the following equations: Size of the market in dollars = Average purchase size × Number of purchasers Size of the market in dollars = Average purchase price/unit × Number of units The reason for calculating these two equations is that inconsistencies between the number of buyers, number of units sold and average cost per purchase will quickly establish themselves in your perception of the market.
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Step 3: establish the growth rate of the market After verifying the type and size of the market demand, the next step is to establish the market growth rates. The first part of this step is to use a search engine such as Google or Dogpile, which will generally lead you to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) website, which houses a staggering amount of information. Often the information you need is immediately available. Even if it is not, you can often obtain surrogate information, which indicates demand growth or decline. Two useful surrogate indicators are employment in the industry and the amount of imports. If employment in the industry is growing, it is an indicator the market for that product is growing. Growth in imports may be distorted significantly by changes in the exchange rate, but changes in import statistics do provide a useful indicator of changes in demand growth. If the ABS is unable to help, other government departments may provide useful data. Both federal and state governments usually have a Department of Industry, which may well have a section head who monitors data or produces reports on the industry you are interested in. Another potential source of information is the Productivity Commission website, which operates at the micro-economic level and produces a variety of reports: <www.pc.gov.au>. The reports typically begin with a detailed economic analysis of the industry, which can provide useful marketing information. There are other sources of information besides the government. Most industries have some form of trade association, which can be a useful source of information even if its covert role may be to keep newcomers out. These associations often produce surveys of expectations and provide a monitoring role. They may supply a history of price movements or wage increases. If either of these indicators is moving significantly upward, so may demand. The other source of industry information is the local industry newspaper. Nearly every industry has at least one trade newspaper. (If it does not, starting one may be an excellent entrepreneurial opportunity.) Half an hour with
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the editor or its best reporter can provide you with a substantial amount of information. Finally, recently retired senior executives may also provide useful information. They have often gained extensive knowledge about an industry and it has been my experience they welcome the opportunity to discuss it. Their analyses are usually intelligent and penetrating. Finally, there is now the Internet. This is a prolific source of market information about any product, market, industry or competition. Entering ‘venture capital’ in June 2001 generated 1 460 000 hits under Google. In the 1980s the two biggest boons to the entrepreneur were the facsimile machine and the personal computer. Now it is the mobile phone and the Internet. If your business card does not have both a mobile phone number and an email address you may well lose the interest of potential investors.
Step 4: establish whether the buyer trends are favourable The final stage of this initial analysis is to establish whether the consumer dynamics are favourable. To list all the buyer trends is impossible, but a key to the success of entrepreneurs is their ability to focus on what new things people and organisations will buy. The demographics of a country are the basis for the demand. Among those that will characterise Australia for the next ten years are: • •
• • •
ageing of the population and the shift of the baby boomers to retirement; polarisation of wealth based on the aspirational society, and the formation of the new poor based on a combination of unemployment, family separations and early retrenchment; increased use of personalised information technology; the shift to the sunbelt; a concern for the environment.
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Any analysis of people’s preferences and expectations is bound to be subjective. Nevertheless, writing down the type, size and growth rates of your market, followed by the dynamics of demand, and then referring to it later is a key task in any business analysis.
SUPPLY ANALYSIS With supply analysis, the focus changes from the customer to the industry. The first step in supply analysis is to establish the stage of the industry. The next step is defining the industry structure. The third step is to then use what is probably the most significant business strategy tool to be developed in the last 20 years, Michael Porter’s five-factor industry analysis model.
Step 1: establish the stage of the industry Each industry goes through a number of phases and the opportunity for entrepreneurs varies with each stage. The first stage is the establishment stage, when there is one product with limited variety and the companies making it are small. The industry is generally started by a technical innovation, although occasionally a change in government policy provides an opportunity. Two famous Australian examples would be FM radio and the deregulation of the telecommunications markets. Another opportunity comes from social changes. Financial planning is an example of industrial opportunity created by social change. The next stage is the growth stage, when companies develop variety in their products and their marketing methods improve. More companies enter the industry and all show good growth independent of their efficiency. The growth stage provides an excellent opportunity for the entrepreneur. Tourism and mobile communications would be good examples of growth industries in Australia. When demand for a product stabilises and the market gradually transforms itself from initial purchase to replacement purchase,
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the industry reaches the mature stage. Competition intensifies and rationalisation occurs as larger companies discover that takeovers of their smaller competitors are the easiest way to increase market share. The opportunities for entrepreneurs in mature industries, until recently, were limited. However, new financing techniques, particularly leveraged buy-outs, have provided a new opportunity for entrepreneurs. Brewing, food, consumer durables and funerals are all examples of mature industries that have rationalised in the past 20 years. The final stage is the decline stage, when an industry’s products are superseded by new products or processes, or demand falls because of a change in lifestyle. Sometimes a technological innovation or a change in the price of a substitute product can rejuvenate an industry and provide opportunity to entrepreneurs. A good example of rejuvenation was the coal industry, which was revived by the large increase in the oil price in the 1970s. Entrepreneurial opportunities exist at each stage of the industry cycle, but the growth stage combines the greatest opportunity with the least risk.
Step 2: establish the structure of the industry Economists define an industry structure according to the number of supplying firms. The number can range from single suppliers, such as Australia Post in the postal industry, to few suppliers, as in the television industry, to many suppliers, as in the advertising industry. Structure is important as it determines the ability of an individual company to set prices. If the number of companies in the market is large, then the company essentially becomes a price taker, concentrating on production costs and trying to establish product differentiation. With some products differentiation is possible, but generally it is limited. There are few single-supplier industries or monopolies. Monopolies typically occur because of government licensing, either by setting up a public corporation such as Telstra or Australia Post or by the granting of a patent. Xerox and
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Polaroid are examples of companies that have occupied monopoly positions. Monopoly companies are price makers, and typically set the price as high as the market will bear while still able to buy all the goods produced. Between these two extremes are found most industries in the Australian private sector. One common structure is an industry with few suppliers or dominated by several large companies. Economists define this structure as oligopolistic. Competition can be based either on price or on other factors. The brewing industry provides a good example. In the early 1980s the New South Wales market was subject to heavy discounting until Castlemaine took over Tooheys and Carlton United Breweries took over Tooths. The price war stopped and the competition became non-price as both companies engaged in heavy advertising and established new brands. This shift to non-price competition allowed the entry of new and boutique breweries. However, in the 1990s the price wars resumed as both Fosters and Lion Nathan attacked each other in their respective home markets. The new and boutique breweries were either taken over or disappeared. The other common structure is called monopolistic competition. In this type there are many small units, but each differs in small ways from its competitors. The typical differentiation is location, although factors not related to price, such as advertising and branding, may effect competition. A good example of monopolistic competition is the photo-finishing industry. For entrepreneurs structure is important for two reasons. If the competition is non-price, they have the opportunity to create product differentiation, although this may be expensive. On the other hand, if the competition is solely on price and they discover a new form of low-cost production, they will be able to penetrate a market rapidly, as happened in photo-finishing.
Step 3: build the Porter model for the industry Michael Porter’s five-factor model is demonstrated in Figure 2.1. One of the most useful exercises an entrepreneur can undertake
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Figure 2.1
Porter’s five-factor industry model
is to construct a Porter model for their own business. The first key concept in the Porter model is to establish the relative bargaining power of suppliers and customers. Among the factors that affect bargaining power, the entrepreneur should assess: • • • • • •
The relative fragmentation of buyers and sellers. How significant is the purchase as a proportion of the total expenditure? Product standardisation or differentiation. The costs of switching to another supplier. How important is the quality of the product to the buyer? How much information does the buyer have about the supplier?
A good demonstration of the Porter model in action is to use it to answer the question of why institutional equity fund managers are paid 10–20 times the salaries of public sector teachers?
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•
•
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First, there are many teachers to one buyer—the Department of Education. By contrast there are around 100 buyers of fund managers in Australia but the pool of managers is limited. There is no measure of how good a teacher is except by hearsay. By contrast there are at least three actuarial firms measuring the performance of fund managers. The buyers know who are the best performers and exactly what they have achieved in the past. Standardisation of the curriculum means the switching costs between teachers are low and the buyer is indifferent to the quality. On the other hand, good fund managers can and generally do take their clients with them so, to the employing institution, the switching costs, in terms of lost revenue, can be very high.
All these factors explain why fund managers are highly paid while teachers are poorly paid. What is interesting is that the teacher’s union is ensuring that the status quo remains. The next key concept in the Porter model is the threat of new entrants or substitute products. Even in a monopoly situation, there is the potential for substitute products. For example, electricity has gas as a competitor for heating, synthetic fibres may replace wool and cotton, and wine may replace beer. Supply analysis requires consideration of such potentials. However, the threat of new entrants is probably the more important. It has been suggested that in an oligopolistic structure what the few companies fear most is the entry of new companies from other industries or overseas. The entry of new companies will reduce market shares and disturb pricing structures. Hence, companies in oligopolistic industries try to set up barriers to entry. In the next chapter, we define how entrepreneurs must establish sustainable competitive advantage. This is equivalent to creating barriers to entry, so to prevent repetition we simply say here that typical barriers to entry are capital costs of entry, control over distribution outlets or factors of production, brand
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image and advertising, economies of large-scale production and unavailability of finance. The final key factor in the Porter model is the degree of competitive rivalry. In Chapter 12 we will spend some time on competitive analysis. In the meantime, the following checklist provides a useful guide to establishing the degree of competitive rivalry in an industry: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Numerous or equally balanced competitors Slow industry growth High fixed or storage costs Lack of differentiation or switching costs Capacity augmented in large increments Diverse competitors (some without the profit motive) High strategic stakes High exit barriers (low liquidation values of fixed assets, long-term labour contracts, emotional barriers, government restrictions)
High competitive rivalry generally leads to lower industry profits. Of course, participants will tell you how tough and competitive their industry is. However, some industries are inherently more profitable than others. For years the free-to-air television industry in Australia, because of governmentimposed barriers to entry and few competitors, has been very profitable. On the other hand, retailers of personal computers, because of low capital entry costs, many competitors (some who were irrational about pricing) and low customer loyalty (because of no perceived service value), have provided very poor returns to their investors.
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The competitive advantage—why will your business win? In the previous chapter we examined the methods of deciding on the size of a market. The reasons for this were twofold. First, insufficient size of market is a common reason for business failure. Aspiring entrepreneurs can save much time and money if by dint of analysis they establish the market is too small to support the business proposal. Second, by analysing a market in the manner proposed, aspiring entrepreneurs should be able to create another necessary criterion for success: a sustainable competitive advantage. The sustainable competitive advantage is based on what the advertising industry defines as USPs, or unique selling propositions. USPs are those unique features of a product which provide the benefits that satisfy the customer’s buying motive. An example will best explain the concept. Imagine you are a creative writer for an advertising agency and an agricultural marketing board has come in with a new fruit, which they are calling an ‘orange’. They give you a dozen of them, along with a dossier on the product, and ask you to devise an advertising campaign. After you have read the dossier and tasted the product you take the first step in any marketing campaign and list the product features: • • •
citrus fruit natural—grows on trees contains large amounts of vitamin C
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distinctive taste orange colour distinctive smell can be made into marmalade makes a juice juice can be fermented and distilled into a liqueur product has an impermeable skin skin is easily peeled product can be segmented product contains a self-reproducing mechanism (seed) product can be sliced skin not easily edible skin can be shredded and put into Christmas and other cakes spherical shape easy to pack into display pyramids high fruit to skin ratio between skin and fruit is a material called pith, etc.
The next step is to establish what might motivate people to buy the product. This list is usually far shorter. Venture capitalists are always asking themselves (about a new product or service): ‘will the dogs eat the dog food?’ The potential reasons for buying the ‘orange’ appear to be: • • •
desire for healthy food and drink pleasure desire to cook cakes, etc.
The next step is to then write down the main features of the product that you think the customers might be looking for. Features natural citrus fruit contains vitamin C orange colour
Benefit healthy healthy healthy pleasure to the eye
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different taste goes into cakes makes juice makes marmalade
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pleasure to taste desire to cook desire to drink desire to cook
The next question is then to establish if there are any unique selling propositions. As you go down the list, you strike out the following items: • • • • • • •
natural—pears, apples, etc. are natural citrus fruit—lemons and grapefruits are citrus fruits contains vitamin C—lemons, grapefruit and limes are sources of vitamin C orange colour—tangerines are orange goes into cakes—so does a lot of fruit makes marmalade—ginger, grapefruit and lemons make marmalade makes juice—nearly all fruit can be juiced
Thus at the end of your analysis you establish that the only USP is the taste of the orange. You decide to make taste the focus of your marketing campaign. This discussion, although hypothetical, has some clear lessons: • • •
first, all products or services have associated with them a whole host of features; second, customers have, by contrast, little motivation to buy; third, there are in reality few USPs that can be associated with a product.
It is the task of the entrepreneur to first recognise what a product’s USPs are, and then ensure the marketing campaign is based on them. Far too many products or services are established with no USPs. Even when USPs are available they are either forgotten or buried under a host of other features.
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Product-related USPs that cannot be imitated are the best. The classic situation is a business based on a technical monopoly, such as that achieved by Cochlear and Res-med. Location is another good USP. Retailers have long been aware of how location is often the key competitive edge that one shop has over another. Another common USP is price. If, because of some manufacturing advantage, you have the lowest priced product then you have a definite USP. It is important to try to ensure that the USPs are tangible. A friend of mine once invested in a small snap-printing business located in a side street in the centre of a major city. After several months, sales were flat and going nowhere, and he asked for help. I visited the shop and during the meeting with the management, asked what made their business unique. Their response was ‘service’. I then asked them to quantify service, which they were unable to do. We then carried out the exercise of listing features, motivations and benefits. We concluded the important USP of the business was two off-street parking spaces, which meant customers and couriers could easily deliver and collect printing jobs. A flyer was printed with this message, and mailed out, and business boomed. Another technique of developing a USP is to segment a market according to some variable, and focus on that segment. A common variable is household income or wealth; another is age of the customer. McDonald’s focuses on families with young children, Mercedes on more affluent households. Over time the company develops an image appealing to this market niche. Complementing the idea of USPs is the economist’s concept of barriers to entry. As the market for a product or service develops, a few companies gradually become dominant. It becomes increasingly difficult for new companies to enter the marketplace. The older companies’ success builds barriers to entry that other organisations must hurdle. Examples of barriers to entry are listed below. • Economies of scale. The large-scale plant investment by the incumbent companies means they are the lowest-cost suppliers.
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•
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•
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Blocked distribution channels. Retailers are disinclined to provide shelf space to new companies and prefer successful brands. Retailers charge significant fees to carry a new line of products. Advertising. New entrants have to spend significant amounts of money to obtain any form of brand recognition and the major advertising companies are already handling the incumbents’ accounts. Reference sales and national service networks. This can be a significant barrier for new companies targeting the industrial and government markets. Large capital requirements. Many inexperienced entrepreneurs fail to calculate the realistic capital requirements for a business. For example, it takes about $12 million to set up a reasonable bottled spring water delivery business. Only one company, Neverfail Spring Water Co., has raised anything like that amount of capital and it holds about 80 per cent of the Australian market.
When addressing the question, ‘Why will their business win?’, entrepreneurs should view the marketplace as a set of scales. In one pan is the business with its USPs and in the other pan is the competition with its barriers to entry. How the scale pointer moves provides some indication of the market share the company could expect to gain. Thus the next step in analysing business potential is to establish if the company has sufficient competitive advantage to get a market share that will provide adequate returns to shareholders. If entrepreneurs are satisfied the business opportunity is there and the competitive advantage can be sustained, they can then take the third and final step—financial analysis.
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4
The initial financial analysis Let us assume the prospective business passes the twin tests of sufficient market size and sustainable competitive advantage. The next step is to establish the financial viability and financial requirements of the business. Business provides rewards in many ways but to attract the institutional investor reward must come in some financial form. Businesspeople need capital to establish and operate a business. The capital may come in the form of equity, supplier credit, debt or some combination of these. The providers of capital typically seek a return and this measure, the return on capital employed, is the fundamental ratio used to analyse a business. The return on capital employed is calculated by dividing the annual profit earned by a business by the capital employed in that business. All businesses may be defined as enterprises that purchase inputs such as labour and materials, add value in some form (usually requiring the purchase of capital equipment), and then sell the transformed inputs. Enterprises, besides needing capital to fund start-up costs and capital equipment, also need capital to fund the continuous purchase of materials and labour, the cost of offering credit to customers, and start-up costs. The cycle of buying and selling is then repeated. The amount of assets needed to support one dollar of sales is called the asset intensity of a business. For example, a retailer who buys goods on credit and mainly has cash customers has a
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much lower asset intensity than a miner who needs to buy substantial plant, to stockpile produce, and has limited trade inputs. One key to business success is achieving lower asset intensity than your competitors. One way to calculate asset intensity is to divide the total assets employed in the business by the annual sales. Another more common way is to subtract current liabilities from total assets and define the result as ‘capital employed’. The ratio of capital employed to annual sales is the capital intensity. The balance sheet of the company describes how much capital is employed in a business and how it is distributed among the various assets. In accounting terms: Assets = Liabilities Long-term assets + Current assets = Current liabilities + Long-term debt + Shareholders’ funds Long-term assets + Current assets – Current liabilities = Long-term debt + Shareholders’ funds Definitions: Working capital = Current assets – Current liabilities Capital employed = Long-term debt + Shareholders’ funds Thus: Long-term assets + Working capital = Capital employed Another key to business success is the difference that is obtained between the purchase price of the inputs and the selling price of the outputs. The profit and loss account is the accounting report that businesspeople use to measure this difference. Successful businesses are defined by the profits they achieve. The usual measurement is the percentage of annual sales that annual profit represents. This percentage is known as the profit margin.
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The return on capital employed (ROCE) may be defined as profit divided by capital employed or as the profit margin divided by the capital intensity: ROCE = Profit ÷ Capital employed ROCE = Profit margin ÷ Capital intensity The target figure of, say, 20 per cent for the pre-tax return on capital employed is the same for the majority of businesses. However, the means by which this target is achieved varies from industry to industry. Oil refineries need extensive capital investment and usually have profit margins of 20–30 per cent and capital intensities of $1 or more. Retail establishments, which sell mostly for cash, lease their fixed assets, and whose major asset is stock, typically have pre-tax profit margins of 2–3 per cent and capital intensities of $0.10–$0.15 per dollar of sales. Once the capital requirements are defined, the next step is to establish the mixture of supplier credit, debt and equity to finance the business. Typically for most businesses, supplier credit is the cheapest form of financing, followed by debt and then equity. The financing task is to try to borrow as much as is possible and top up any deficiency with equity. This is the leveraged buy-out financing technique. The corollary is that, because interest payments must be met, debt increases the financial risk of a business. For a start-up business the business risk is already high, so adding financing risk can be too much. Thus, if possible, equity should finance new businesses. Indeed, if entrepreneurs try to raise equity and fail, they are receiving an important message. To neglect this signal and try to fund a start-up with debt is a common mistake, and often leads to bankruptcy. Returning to the questions set at the beginning of this chapter, the steps to establish the financial viability and financial needs of a business are set out below. •
First, draw up a monthly pro-forma profit and loss account of the business when it is an on-going business and operating profitably. At this stage the business should be generating positive cash flows.
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• •
•
•
29
Then, calculate the gross and pre-tax profit margin ratios and establish whether they are sensible. Convert the monthly pro-forma profit and loss accounts to annual figures. Then establish the capital employed ratios for similar industries and calculate the capital requirements for the continuing business. Next, try to establish how much capital will be needed to fund the business until the business turns from cash negative to cash positive. This should not be longer than two years but is often longer than one year. Add together the on-going capital requirements with the start-up capital requirements and then decide if and how you can raise the needed capital.
Let us now take as an example a company that wishes to manufacture a new form of electronic widget. The total market is estimated to be $15–$20 million and you believe that in two years, because of your pricing and technical advantages, you will obtain 10–15 per cent of the market. •
•
You estimate widgets will cost $1500 to make and sell at an average price of $3000. You estimate that to achieve sales of $180 000 per month the company will need a sales manager and four salespeople. Other necessary staff overheads include an accountant, a research and development engineer, a technician, a secretary and a receptionist. You then draw up a monthly pro-forma profit and loss as shown in Table 4.1 and calculate percentages. Note we are assuming nothing about the method of financing and are supposing there is no interest to be paid. Thus EBIT (earnings before interest and taxation) is equal to the pretax profit. Fixed manufacturing costs refers to those manufacturing costs such as rent, equipment leases and so forth which do not vary with the volume of manufacturing. Cost of goods sold refers to the direct labour and material costs incurred in production.
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Table 4.1
Monthly profit and loss with percentages $
Sales Cost of goods sold Gross margin Marketing and sales Administration Research and development Fixed manufacturing Earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT)
•
•
•
•
180 000 90 000 90 000 40 000 15 000 10 000 12 000 13 000
% 100 50 50 22 8 6 7 7
You then check the pro-forma profit and loss percentages against industry norms and establish whether your projections are realistic. The most important percentage is the profit before tax. More business plans lose credibility with this figure than any other. Manufacturing enterprises may occasionally exceed 10 per cent but it is rare. Resourcebased businesses in good years may achieve 40 per cent but the matching cost is the enormous capital infrastructure that must be built. Few businesses continuously achieve pre-tax margins of more than 15 per cent. The next step is to find out the asset intensity for an electronics manufacturing business. From your research you find the typical asset intensity for an electronics manufacturer is $0.67. Thus by calculating the annual sales for the company, $2.16 million, you estimate that its asset requirements would be about $1.4 million. Creditors and leave provisions typically represent 20–25 per cent of total assets, leaving an operating capital requirement of $1.2 million. For a manufacturing company of this size the assets would typically be fixed assets of $500 000, stock of $450 000, debtors of $400 000 and other assets of, say, $50 000. In addition you estimate it will take the company eighteen months to build up to monthly sales of $180 000. Thus, in the first month the company will make a gross margin of
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$5000, in the second month $10 000, and so on. Over eighteen months the total gross margin earned will be $855 000. The monthly fixed costs are estimated as starting at $38 000 and growing to $77 000 at a rate of $2000 per month. Over eighteen months the total costs will be $990 000. The difference between the total gross margin and total costs is a capital deficiency of $180 000. The total capital requirement is thus about $1.25 million. The monthly profit before tax is estimated to be $13 000, which leads to an annual pre-tax profit of $156 000 or a return on capital employed of about 12.5 per cent. This simple example is at the required level of initial analysis. Perhaps the most common reason stated for business failure is undercapitalisation. What undercapitalisation usually means is that the entrepreneur underestimated the capital requirements. The key step is the second one which, after drawing up a proforma profit and loss or income statement, is calculating the various percentages. Ken Olsen, the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, has said the first question he asks of any aspiring entrepreneur is to see the income statement. He does this before asking any questions about markets, technologies or previous track record. He says he knows whether the business has any chance of success from the quality of the income statement. If the income statement appears reasonable the next step is to calculate the margins. In a start-up manufacturing company one usually looks for gross margins over 50 per cent, marketing costs of 20–25 per cent, administration costs of 7–10 per cent, and research and development costs of 5–10 per cent. For a retail or wholesale operation you look for margins of 25 per cent and overheads of around 18 per cent. Once you have estimated the income statement, the calculation of the capital intensity is a relatively simple task. Typically manufacturers have ratios of $0.50–$0.67 while retailers which can sell for cash, lease equipment and premises, and use suppliers’ credit can achieve capital intensities of $0.08–$0.12.
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The more difficult task is the calculation of capital needed to fund the business until break-even cash flow is achieved. Each business is different but there are some rough rules of thumb. Most companies require at least a year to start making a profit from a branch operation. Another rule of thumb is that for every $1 spent on successful research and development (R&D), $3 are needed for production engineering and $6 for the marketing and production launch. Underestimation of the start-up capital is a major risk for most investors, particularly if the investment needs further R&D. Thus a preferred alternative for many entrepreneurs is to take over an existing business; that is the subject of the next chapter. Of course these calculations are only satisfactory for a first analysis, but they do help to provide some useful indicators. Any formal fundraising will need a business plan and detailed monthly cash flow forecasts. Later chapters describe how these reports are prepared, but in Part Two we examine those financial intermediaries that can provide debt and equity capital to entrepreneurs.
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5
Taking over an existing business Until now we have been examining the initial analysis necessary for starting a new business. However, while starting a new business and succeeding can bring about some of the more spectacular gains, there are other ways to win, namely turnarounds and leveraged buy-outs. When entrepreneurs take over failing (or failed) companies and by a combination of innovative marketing and cost-cutting convert the losses into profit, this is called a turnaround. Lee Iacocca of Chrysler and Victor Kiam of Remington are two wellknown examples of such entrepreneurs. Their books are well worth reading and are an inspiration to any budding entrepreneur or manager. Turnarounds, however, are notoriously difficult. Successful company doctors, another name for turnaround experts, are as rare as successful artists. Thus, if you are offered a turnaround opportunity it is necessary to exercise extreme caution and ensure you have developed a business plan for success. The leveraged buy-out (LBO) is another method of buying companies, and it has become increasingly popular over the past five years. A leveraged buy-out replaces business risk with financing risk. All businesses are subject to failure; indeed failure is the essence of the capitalist system. Failure redirects resources at more productive enterprises. Business failure often comes about because the marketplace or competition prevents adequate sales or margins (business risk). In other
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Starting a business
cases, the business has been financed by too much debt in proportion to equity and, because of an economic downturn, is unable to meet its interest payments. It is then foreclosed by the debt financiers (financing risk). Figure 5.1 illustrates the risks facing businesses as a simple grid. Section 1 is the well-managed successful business. Typically the debt to equity ratio is 50:50. Section 2 is a start-up financed by equity. The business risk for a start-up is always high but the financing risk is small by having little debt on the balance sheet. Section 3 is a start-up financed by debt. This is usually a disaster. Section 4 is the leveraged buy-out. A business with little risk and a strong balance sheet is purchased principally by debt financing, generally raising the debt to equity ratio up to a maximum of 90:10. The essence of a leveraged buy-out is to weaken a previously strong balance sheet. The reward for the entrepreneur comes by using the cash flows of the business to repay the debt so that in time, the ratio of debt to equity reduces to, say, 50:50. The result, provided the business keeps the same value, is a fivefold increase in the equity. Figure 5.2 illustrates this. LBOs have become increasingly popular overseas. Financiers and entrepreneurs now have the ability to perform cash flow analysis on personal computers. Sufficient successful examples of LBOs are available to convince doubtful lenders. Some large LBOs have already been carried out in Australia. The most successful was the Kerry Packer buy-out of Consolidated Press. He bought the half shareholding his family did not own from the public in 1983 for $300 million. He then sold half the business
Figure 5.1
Risks facing businesses
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Taking over an existing business
Figure 5.2
35
Increasing equity in an LBO
(the Nine television network) for $1.1 billion to Alan Bond in 1987, who in turn listed the television company. Kerry Packer then bought back a controlling interest in the listed television company in 1989 for $200 million. In 1992 he sold off half the magazines (effectively one-quarter of the business) to the public for $600 million. He then re-merged the two entities in 1995. Understanding the LBO process was probably the first key step towards Kerry Packer becoming Australia’s wealthiest individual. The success of an LBO, provided the price is right, depends on a steady cash flow. Thus one looks for businesses in quasi-monopoly situations with high barriers to entry. For Consolidated Press television licences were restricted and the demand for television advertising generally exceeded supply. The cost of setting up a new newspaper or magazine in the markets served by Consolidated Press publications was prohibitive. Castlemaine Tooheys, which was an LBO executed by Alan Bond, was in a similar position. The costs of building a largescale brewery to obtain the economies of scale and the necessary distribution by substantial advertising and significant
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discounting means breweries are almost impregnable. The last attempt by a new entrant into Australia, Power Breweries, did gain initial marketing success. However, it was soon taken over by Fosters Brewing as price-cutting diminished its profits. Consumer businesses that have strong brand names and few competitors are popular targets for LBOs. Other potential candidates are industrial companies that are sole or dominant suppliers. Good examples of the latter include Simsmetal and Austoft, which is the dominant worldwide supplier of cane harvesting equipment to the sugar industry. While the LBO is the underlying financial structure, the name applied to the transaction depends on who is doing the buying. If it is a buy-out specialist it will be an LBO. If it is incumbent management buying the business from its current owners, say a multinational divesting a non-core business, then it is known as a management buy-out or MBO. If it is new management buying in, then it is known as a management buyin or MBI. The first step in an LBO is establishing the size and stability of the market. The second step is to discover the degree of competition. It is critical to establish the potential for pricecutting by competitors. A highly leveraged company cannot afford to engage in a discounting war and is particularly vulnerable to a squeeze on margins. Finally, the entrepreneur must establish whether the company can refinance the debt from the operating cash flow or asset redeployment. Usually a new emphasis on asset management can reduce stock and debtors by around 10 per cent, and delaying payment to creditors may significantly reduce the working capital requirements of a company. Some fixed assets, particularly land and buildings, can often be sold and leased back. On a per-capita basis, Australia has the largest property trust industry in the world and these institutions are often seeking good properties or tenants. The principal form of asset redeployment is probably reduction of stock levels. Typical measures carried out by management are:
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• • •
37
doing product rationalisations (long-established companies typically have an excessive number of low-margin products); introducing stock recording and control systems; reducing set-up times on machines so the factory can produce on shorter runs.
If entrepreneurs cannot establish a means of financing the debt (the price is too high), there is no deal. In this chapter we have concentrated on LBOs. However, entrepreneurs contemplating a start-up can also consider the purchase of a small existing company. The purchase of a small company that already has a number of facilities in place (phone, post office box, etc.) and a developed credit history may often prove to be an intelligent step. Entrepreneurs should remember that the winner of the ABC Flying Start Award (a competition organised to find the best growth business in Australia in 1987), DKS Pty Limited, began its corporate history by the original shareholders buying a small manufacturing company in 1979 for a five-figure sum. They sold the business to James Hardie in 1991 for an eight-digit sum.
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Part Two THE VENTURE CAPITAL SPECTRUM
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6
How the game is played
In Part One we described how entrepreneurs should analyse a business and decide whether it is worth trying to raise funds. In Part Two we will examine the various venture capital intermediaries. Before this, however, let us first look at how the entrepreneurship/venture capital game is played. Not much in the venture capital game is new. What is different is that the game and the roles of the various players have become more precisely defined. The rules for this game developed in California during the 1960s and 1970s. It is only recently that the game has really started in Australia for industrial companies. Note, however, that it is well known and widely used among the Australian junior resource companies. People often make the comment that there is no venture capital in Australia, whereas the reality is that the Australian mining sector has one of the best-developed venture capital markets in the world. Significant changes in the financial system of Australia during the last ten years have made the entrepreneurship/venture capital game a more popular one to play. Most importantly, with the effective halving of the rate of capital gains tax to 24.25 per cent, it is a much more financially rewarding route for an ambitious individual to follow than previously. Figure 6.1 summarises the key factors that determine the health of the venture capital industry.
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The venture capital spectrum
Figure 6.1
Factors affecting the venture capital industry
FACTORS AFFECTING THE VENTURE CAPITAL INDUSTRY Exit routes Venture capital generates returns to its investors by successful exits. One study by Venture Economics showed that initial public offerings (IPOs) on average provided venture capitalists (VCs) with an average 2.95 × cash-out ratio in 4.2 years or a 29 per cent investment return rate (IRR). Trade sales gave a 1.4 × cash-out ratio in 3.7 years or a 9.5 per cent IRR. While mediocre-performing companies will find it very difficult to list, except in exceptional bull markets as was the case in the twelve months leading up to March 2000, trade sales can occur at any price. Hence one would expect the study to show IPOs in a more favourable light. On the other hand much of the returns generated by the US VC managers over the past ten years
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would be attributable to the strength of NASDAQ as shown in Figure 6.2. Finally, besides trade sales and IPOs, buy-backs are now permitted under Australian law.
Financial In the past ten years there has been a substantial increase in the commitment by Australian financial institutions to the venture capital asset class. For example, the 2000 ABS survey of the VC industry showed that 53 per cent of the $4.9 billion committed to VC investment was sourced from Australian financial institutions. The survey stated that there were 97 active venture capital fund managers managing 123 investment vehicles. This is a dramatic transformation from the situation ten years ago, when the commitment would have been only in the hundreds of millions and there would have been perhaps 20 funds in Australia.
80 VC Partnerships NASDAQ
40 20 0
Se
-20
p Ju 86 n M 87 ar D 88 ec Se 88 p Ju 89 n M 90 ar D 91 ec Se 91 p Ju 92 n M 93 ar D 94 ec Se 94 p Ju 95 n M 96 ar D 97 ec Se 97 p Ju 98 n M 99 ar D 00 ec 00
Quarterly return
60
-40
Figure 6.2
Quarter
US venture capital partnership returns versus public market returns—funds formed 1969–2000 (quarterly returns)
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The venture capital spectrum
Regulatory The halving of the capital gains tax rate has already been noted for individuals. For entrepreneurs, $5 million of capital gains can now be rolled over into new businesses tax-free and $1 million put into superannuation tax-free. These are significant tax-free amounts which, in combination with the increase in the superannuation levy to 30 per cent for high-income earners, has completely changed the attractiveness of starting your own business. The taxation rate for companies is now 30 per cent. The goods and services tax now means that exporters, who used to carry a terrible taxation burden, have a significant competitive advantage. On the taxation front the situation has become more favourable to entrepreneurs than it has been for some 30 years. The legal framework is now also far more favourable for fundraising as the prospectus rules have been relaxed for approaches to professional investors. Companies can now make personal offers and accept 20 new shareholders on a rolling twelve-months basis for total amounts of less than $2 million (the 20/12/2 rule) without having to register a prospectus.
Innovation Because of the tyranny of distance, Australia has always been an innovative country. However, there has been a substantial recent increase in innovative activity in a favourable government climate. Not only are there START and COMET grants and Innovation Investment Funds, but small companies with less than $5 million turnover and $1 million R&D expenditure can obtain a cash rebate of money spent on R&D. In addition, the various scientific research institutions such as the universities and the CSIRO are actively looking for commercial collaborators.
Economic The economic climate in Australia has become increasingly benign. At the macro-economic level the float of the Australian
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dollar has meant that credit crunches and rises in short-term interest rates to 20 per cent should now be of very short duration. Rather than have recessions induced by high interest rates, the authorities will let the dollar take the pressure. This means more monetary stability. At the micro-economic level deregulation has led to lower prices in a number of industries and in labour markets. Australia has become a low-cost producer for tertiary industries. These two changes have resulted in one of the longest periods of stable economic growth for Australia, broken only by the one-quarter decline in the second half of 2000.
Culture The key questions here are whether Australia embraces an entrepreneurial culture, and how does it compare to the rest of the world? These two topics are frequent subjects of debate in the media. Fortunately, in 1999 a pilot study known as the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor was started, followed by a full 21-country study in 2000. This is the first attempt at international comparisons of entrepreneurial activity carried out on a systematic basis. Professor Kevin Hindle of the Swinburne University of Technology carried out the study in Australia. It might surprise some people, but of the 21 countries Australia ranked in the top five in terms of entrepreneurial activity. The major problems for Australia in the study were a high capital gains tax rate (since addressed), an underdeveloped venture capital industry (becoming much better), a negative media and over-reliance on the public sector for R&D.
Market The key factor here is to have large and growing markets. The small size of the domestic market is often said to be Australia’s weakness. On the other hand, Australians often fail to realise the size and wealth of their economy. For example, if Sydney were in the USA, where would it rank in terms of population? Sydney (4.6 million) would be the sixth largest city in the USA, ranking
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The venture capital spectrum
between Washington (4.9 million) and Detroit (4.4 million). Many countries in the world have no world-class cities; Australia is fortunate to have two. Australia is also wealthy; of the 30 economies tracked by the OECD, Australia is the eleventh largest. Many budding entrepreneurs may find this difficult to believe, but a big problem facing the Australian venture capital community is the lack of good investments. Australia is not alone in this predicament. Venture capitalists in the USA had the same difficulty in the late 1960s and early 1970s. However, understanding of how the entrepreneurship/venture capitalist game was played gradually developed. It first spread by word of mouth and has now been documented in several books. In this book I have tried to summarise how to play the same game in Australia. There are many players in the game, but the two most important are the entrepreneurs and the venture capitalists. Venture capitalists in essence are financial intermediaries. Investors typically subscribe equity capital into a fund. Venture capitalists in turn invest the funds raised into small private companies, mainly in the form of equity. The objective is to grow the funds under management. There are two reasons for this: 1 2
The management fees received are often related to the amount of funds under management. There is usually a performance incentive in the form of a percentage (typically 20 per cent) of the value added to the initial funds raised.
Venture capitalists achieve their return as capital gain. The exit mechanism is generally either by an IPO or an acquisition by a larger corporation. Typically, they invest in companies with a value of up to $10 million and seek to grow them to valuations of $35–$50 million. To achieve a successful float on the Australian Stock Exchange, a company should have a valuation of at least
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$20 million. This practical limit is set by the need to have a floor under the share price. To ensure a minimum price a company should have the support of the institutions such as the large insurance companies and pension funds. The institutions prefer to invest minimum amounts of $1 million and prefer to own less than 5 per cent of a company. If they own a larger amount and wish to sell, the selling program may depress the exit price. To achieve a valuation of $30 million, a new float should have a history of gradually increasing profits, a profit after tax of $1.5–$2 million for the year preceding the float and a prospective forecast profit after tax of $2–$3 million. What venture capitalists seek are investments in growth companies or in LBOs where there is significant potential for growth in the value of the equity. The definition of entrepreneur in the Concise Oxford Dictionary is ‘a person in effective control of a commercial undertaking’. A better definition may be ‘a person who converts an idea into a product or a service people buy’. Entrepreneurs may do this for many reasons, but the successful entrepreneur does it for one underlying reason, and that is to get rich. If the profit motive is not there then a necessary ingredient for success is missing. Note that a desire to get rich is not sufficient. Many of the wheeler-dealers of the 1980s had the desire for wealth in abundance but, instead of being entrepreneurs as they claimed, they were arsonists, destroying the companies they acquired. How are entrepreneurs to become rich? In the 2000s they best fulfil this aim by owning shares in a public company. It is worth analysing some figures provided by the Sydney Stock Exchange. As of 31 December 2000 there were 1230 domestic companies listed on the Main Board of the Australian Stock Exchange. Each of these companies has a market capitalisation that is defined as the product of the number of shares on issue times the last traded share price. The market capitalisation is the valuation placed on the company by the market. The total market capitalisation of the Australian stock market on
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1 January 2001 was $671 billion, which meant that the average capitalisation of a company listed on the stock market was $545 million. Such a figure is misleading. In Australia the 500 companies that make up the All-Ordinaries Index and represent 96 per cent of the total market capitalisation dominate the share market. What we should look at is the average figure for the 830 non-Index stocks, which is $27.6 million. If an entrepreneur owns 10 per cent of an average non-Index company he or she thus has a relatively liquid asset of $2.8 million. To accomplish the goal of public listing the entrepreneurs have to perform, and the key measure of performance is after-tax profit. The price–earnings ratio for the Sydney Stock Exchange on 1 January 2001 was around 21.3. Thus (after eliminating the 500 All-Ordinaries companies) the average non-Index Australian public company was earning $1.3 million after tax. The major constraint on entrepreneurs is the recognition that they should be seeking equity funding rather than debt. Investors think of equity capital as risk capital because they have no guarantee of any return on their investment, nor of its repayment. By contrast, debt has predetermined rates of interest and principal repayments and a fixed term over which the money is lent. From the perspective of a business, debt is more risky than equity. Financiers use the ratio of debt to equity, known as gearing, as a measure of financial risk. For a new company the business risk is high, therefore the entrepreneur should minimise the financial risk. The source of funding should thus be equity rather than debt. In the USA, high-tech companies have little or no debt on the balance sheet. The major constraint on the venture capitalist is operational. The fees from $15 million of investments will support one venture capitalist and administrative overheads. The maximum number of investments a venture capitalist can manage is around six, which gives an automatic average funding amount of $2.5 million per investment and a minimum amount of around $1.5 million.
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Now we have defined the objectives and constraints it is necessary to define how the entrepreneur/venture capital game is played. Perth has long had the reputation of being the entrepreneurial capital of Australia. Various reasons have been suggested for this, one being that the major industry in Western Australia is mining. If you wish to set up a company for exploration you do not go to the bank for funds. What you try to do is raise equity and the most common way is by small public company listings or private subscription. As the culture of fundraising by equity develops, the word spreads and more true entrepreneurs appear and use the same fundraising techniques in other industries. True entrepreneurs flourish in a climate of equity fundraising. On the other hand, a major cause of the 1991–92 recession was ‘new’ entrepreneurs attempting to finance equity investments using debt. The entrepreneurship/venture capital game has seven rules. 1 2
3
4
5 6
A rapidly growing business is always short of cash and the over-financed company does not exist. Raising cash is done by a series of capital placements, which results in continual dilution of the equity holdings of earlier investors and founders. The founders play a game of divide and conquer with their investors. Their objective is to have a mix of investor shareholdings while their own shareholding is diluted below 50 per cent. What the founders aim at avoiding is having one shareholder with more than a 50 per cent holding and singular control of the company. All the shareholders are driven towards the goal of maximising after-tax profits and an eventual public listing, even though they know that if they are successful the greater likelihood (by a factor of 4) is a takeover by a multinational. Entrepreneurs who worry a lot about voting control usually have nothing to worry about. There is no limit on what you can do or how far you can go—if you don’t mind who gets the credit.
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7
The probability of success of a small company is inversely proportional to the size of the entrepreneur’s office multiplied by the monthly lease on his or her car. Let us examine an imaginary company (see Table 6.1) where: • • • • • • • •
turnover doubles every year; there is a gross margin of 50 per cent; 10 per cent is earned in after-tax profit; all fixed assets are leased; debtors pay 60 days after receipt of invoice; creditors require 30 days and represent 50 per cent of cost of goods sold; stock levels are two months of cost of goods sold; 80 per cent of after-tax profit is retained in the company.
As can be seen from the table, even a business with such attractive characteristics is still short of capital, mainly because its retained earnings are insufficient to fund the growth in working capital. Faced with such a scenario the entrepreneur has two choices. One is to slow down the rate of growth and fund the working capital increase from retained earnings. This is called bootstrapping. The other choice is to go to the venture capital market repeatedly to fund the working capital requirements arising out of rapid growth. Table 6.1 is made more relevant by the following practical example (see Table 6.2), which shows the financing history of a company over a four-year period. The company begins with the founders subscribing $15 000 in the form of 1.5 million 1-cent shares. The first venture capital investor puts in $500 000 for 25 per cent of the company. A year later another venture capitalist puts in $1 million. The following year a syndicate of two other venture capitalists put in $1 million each. Finally the company lists in the following year, raising $3 million from the public. What happens (as illustrated respectively by Figures 6.3, 6.4 and 6.5) is that funds are raised in stages, the founders’ equity is diluted at each stage, and although the percentage holding
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Table 6.1
51
Funding requirements for a high-growth company ($000)
Year Sales Profit after tax Retained earnings Stock Plus: Debtors Less: Creditors and provisions Working capital requirements Less: retained earnings Funding requirements
1
2
3
4
5
100 10 8 8 16 4 20 8 12
200 20 16 16 32 8 40 16 24
400 40 32 32 64 16 80 32 48
800 80 64 64 128 32 160 64 96
1600 160 128 128 256 64 320 128 192
becomes smaller the real value of the holding becomes greater as the value of the company increases. This example is important and all budding entrepreneurs should study it carefully. It demonstrates a number of key principles of the venture capital game: •
•
The founders and management end up owning 34 per cent of the business; the holding is now worth $9 million, compared with an original value of $15 000. The founders, while they end up with less than 50 per cent of the company, make sure that no other investor ends up with more than 50 per cent. A key to success is to play
Figure 6.3
Funds raised in stages
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The venture capital spectrum
Figure 6.4
Dilution of founders’ equity
Figure 6.5
Increasing value of founders’ equity
•
‘divide and conquer’ among the shareholders. Secondly, the entrepreneur must aim at raising equity from more than one investor. Post listing, the shareholding in our hypothetical example would be as shown in Figure 6.6. Entrepreneurs should see their company as a wheel around them and their shareholders as the spokes. The more spokes the stronger the wheel. If there is only one investor shareholder and it holds more than 50 per cent, the entrepreneur and the team are effectively employees. On the other hand, if the founders/management team end up with a minority position but split up the remaining majority shareholding across a diversity of venture capital institutions and the
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Fig 6.6
• •
•
•
53
Example of a shareholding post listing
public, they retain effective management control of the business. Money invested stays in the company and is used to finance the growth of the business. Equity is used to compensate the executives and the employees. Everyone in the company has a vested interest in increasing the value of the company’s shares. The executives do not erode profits by taking high salaries, leasing expensive cars or having elaborate offices. The fundraising never stops. The finance director is responsible for raising the next round of equity. Typically, in the intervals, the finance director arranges debt as bridging finance to cover timing differences. The dilution curve for the founders is a hyperbola. While the founders are initially only diluted by the start-up
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Table 6.2
Pro-forma financing history of a high-growth company
Stage Month Issued shares New shares Total shares Share price Post-funding valuation Funds raised Pre-funding valuation Cumulative funds raised
Share structure
Founders’ Start-up issue
Float
Post– float
0
0
12
24
36
48
15 00K 15 00K $0.01
1 500K 500K 2 000K $1.00
2 000K 666K 2 666K $1.50
2 666K 1 000K 3 666K $2.00
3 666K 750K 4 416K $4.00
4 416K – 4 416K $10.00
$15K $15K
$2 000K $500K
$4 000K $1 000K
$7 333K $2 000K
$17 666K $44 166K $3 000K $0
$0
$1 500K
$3 000K
$5 333K
$14 666K $44 166K
$15K
$515K
$1 515K
$3 515K
Shares on issue
Founders/employees 1 100 000 Managing director 200 000 Marketing director 100 000 Finance director 40 000 Operations director 60 000 Investors: Angels 1&2 500 000 Round 1: VC1 666 667 Round 2: VC2&3 1 000 000 Public float 750 000 Total 4 416 667
•
Round 1 Round 2
Percentage holdings
55.00 10.00 5.00 2.00 3.00 25.00
41.25 7.50 3.75 1.50 2.25 18.75 25.00
30.00 5.45 2.73 1.09 1.64 13.64 18.18 27.27
100.00
100.00
100.00
$6 515K
$6 515K
Value 24.91 $11 000K 4.53 $2 000K 2.26 $1 000K 0.91 $400 000 1.36 $600K 11.32 $5 000K 15.09 $6 666K 22.64 $10 000K 16.98 $7 500K 100.00 $44 166 670
investors, in subsequent rounds the earlier investors share the dilution with the founders. The increase in value of the company is a combination of two processes. Firstly, there is the increase in value generated by the continual increase in profitability, which financial analysts refer to as the ‘quality of earnings’ effect. As a business grows in earnings year-by-year, the price– earnings multiple applied to that business also grows. Secondly, there is the increase in value that comes from the
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conversion from a private to a publicly listed company. As a rough rule of thumb a company may be valued as follows: • 1/3 the all-industrials P/E when private; • 2/3 the all-industrials P/E on listing; • 100 per cent of the all-industrials P/E after making the forecasted profit stated in the prospectus. This effect (the increase in P/E ratio as the profit after tax increases and the increase in P/E with increasing liquidity) is known as the Double Whammy (see Figure 6.7).
THE FIVE-STAGE MODEL OF SMALL BUSINESS GROWTH Entrepreneurs and investors should also realise at what stages venture capitalists invest. The seminal paper on small business growth is by Churchill and Lewis, published in the Harvard Business Review in 1983. In this paper the authors begin by
Market Capitalisation
$m 60
P/E PAT
40
20
0
1
Figure 6.7
2
3
4
The Double Whammy
5
6
7
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dispelling the myth that companies follow the classic product cycle of start-up, rapid growth, maturity and decline. Instead they developed their own five-stage model of small business growth.
Stage I: existence At start-up a company’s strategy is to remain alive. The owner does everything and is the major supplier of energy and direction and, with relatives and friends, capital. Systems are non-existent. The owner controls the company by watching the bank balance.
Stage II: survival At this stage the company is at marginal profitability. Many ‘mum and dad’ stores are at this stage. The owners may have some employees and an external accountant. If the company appears to be succeeding it may raise capital from wealthy individuals known as ‘angels’, or from the public sector, or very occasionally from venture capitalists.
Stage III: stability The company has succeeded and is showing an economic return on investment. It is generating cash. Professional managers in the form of a financial controller and an operations manager join the company and basic systems are introduced. The owner then has two choices. He or she can decide to disengage from the business and use the money to finance a pleasant lifestyle. As outlined earlier, another common strategy in Australia has been to buy property. The other strategy is to go for growth. In Australia this would mean opening interstate or other branch offices, for example. Now the owner must be deeply involved. He or she can use several different financing strategies. Franchising is a good technique for consumer products provided the gross margin is
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large enough. Bakers Delight is a good example of a well-run franchised operation. What started as a single bakery in the Melbourne suburb of Hawthorn in 1980 has grown to a franchise chain employing 8000 staff across 450 bakeries in both Australia and New Zealand, boasting an annual turnover in excess of $250 million. The other method is to seek equity from venture capitalists and go the dilution route outlined above. This technique works best with products and services sold to the industrial and government markets.
Stage IV: rapid growth In this stage the company grows rapidly. The two key problems facing the business are financing the growth, and organising the delegation and decentralisation of responsibility. Two mistakes often occur. The owner does not realise that dilution is the name of the game and the way to protect himself or herself is to ensure a spread of ownership and not let one party control the company. It is at this stage when there are multiple fundraisings from venture capitalists. The other common mistake is for the owner not to realise that the business and ownership have become separate and that the business is going to need other management resources besides him or her to run the company.
Stage V: resource maturity At this stage the company has delegated and decentralised management and has formal planning systems in place. The company has arrived. If it can preserve its entrepreneurial spirit it will be a formidable force in the market. It is generating cash and the problems now become those of diversification. The point about this model is that it describes the businesses venture capitalists seek. They do not seek companies at Stage I or II. Occasionally, when this does occur, it is the stuff of legend.
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Digital Equipment Corporation, mentioned earlier, is a case in point. These companies, known as new technology growth firms or NTGFs, are discussed in more detail in Chapter 7. They follow a slightly different model. However, for many companies, even those claimed by the venture capitalists as successes, such as Apple in the USA and Neverfail SpringWater Co. in Australia, the initial start-up financing was done by the entrepreneur and friends, the survival stage was financed by ‘angels’, and only in the stability and rapid-growth stages did the venture capitalists appear. Neverfail SpringWater Co. is a good example of the equity dilution–high growth model in action. The company started in the late 1980s and listed 1 July 1999. During that period: • the turnover went from nothing to over $57 million annually; • the total venture capital raised was $15 million from four institutions; • the founder went from 100 per cent to 13 per cent ownership; • the founder’s shareholding grew in value from $60 000 to $44 million; • the share price went from $1 to $376 over thirteen years, a 66 per cent annual compound growth. It is not just the skill of the management, nor the implementation of the business concept, but the method of financing that is a key to the success of Neverfail. The venture capital industry over the past five years has shown substantial growth. Every quarter the Australian Venture Capital Journal, with PriceWaterhouseCoopers, runs a survey monitoring the venture capital investment activity in Australia and New Zealand. As can be seen in Table 6.3, the amount of funding in the three key areas of early stage funding, expansion stage, and buy-outs have all shown major increases. In 1996 total investment activity was $347 million. By 2000 the amount had more than tripled to $1.14 billion. Corroboration for the increased size of the early stage investment sector was
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Table 6.3
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Australian and New Zealand venture capital investment levels 1996–2000
A$m Seed Start-up Early expansion Expansion MBO/MBI Turnaround Secondary purchase Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
17.93 19.93 24.13 194.62 77.35 3.60 9.26 347
16.08 41.31 38.06 144.39 184.08 10.80 38.20 473
59.83 94.69 81.75 403.54 281.08 4.70 45.45 971
85.3 258.8 170.7 427.8 169.4 8.7 19.2 1140
ABS results 269 612 761 426 54 2122
provided by the Venture Capital Survey carried out by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The stage of investment as reported by the 97 managers managing 123 funds is shown in the final column. Note the ABS numbers are the total amounts invested in each stage over the life of each fund. According to the PriceWaterhouseCoopers’ survey, seed, startup and early expansion funding has increased in four years from $62 million to $515 million, which represents an annual growth rate of 102 per cent. The ABS survey has total early stage funding at just below $900 million. Chapter 7 will cover the sources of funding into this area, which have widened dramatically. Expansion funding, which is still the single largest class of venture capital in Australia has grown from $195 to $428 million. This represents an annual increase of 30 per cent. Expansion funding is covered in Chapter 8. The other major class of venture capital is the MBO/MBI (managed buyout/managed buy-in) market. This segment showed strong growth for the first two years but has since retreated. Chapter 9 then looks at the financing of LBOs and also explains how the rules of the LBO game differ.
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7
Seed and start-up capital
As indicated in the previous chapter, the entrepreneur who is trying to build a high-growth business must realise that the fundraising never stops and it is a process of staged equity dilution. However, the hardest part is raising seed money. In this chapter we analyse the various sources of seed and start-up equity funding. The various financing stages are defined below. Seed: financing to start up a company and develop prototypes. Start-up: financing received before a company makes any sales. Stage I: Seed and start-ups are grouped together as Stage I financing when the company has no sales and no profits. Stage II: financing received when a company is making sales but no profits (called early expansion financing). Stage III: financing received when a company is making sales and profits (sometimes called development or expansion financing). As stated in the previous chapter, the usual process for entrepreneurs is to use either their own resources or those of other individuals for Stage I and Stage II funding. In Australia venture capitalists typically only provided Stage III expansion finance when they believed the company’s business had been
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proven to be viable. However, the past five years have seen venture capitalists move lower down the food chain to earlier stages of financing. In 1997, start-up financing by VCs was just under $20 million and represented some 5.7 per cent of total VC funds invested. By 2000 VC start-up funding had risen to 22.7 per cent of VC funding, or $259 million.
PRIVATE-SECTOR NON-INSTITUTIONAL FUNDING This is probably the largest source of funds for seed and start-ups both in Australia and overseas. These are funds sourced from friends and relatives or wealthy individuals known as angels. Angels are usually businesspeople who often (but not always) take an active role in the enterprise but usually offer business skills at the strategic level. Angels typically invest in the range between tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars. Until recently the angel market had been unorganised and dependent on informal networks of accountants, lawyers and stockbrokers. There have also been various attempts to formalise the matching process. Australian Business Limited <www.australianbusiness. com.au> runs a formal angel-matching service known as Australian Business Angels. It claims to have a 600-strong investor network and represents $200 million in available capital. The program also runs investment-readiness workshops and regular ‘pitchfests’ where entrepreneurs pitch their business opportunities to an audience of angels. Another formalised group of angels is Tinshed. Several managers are paid a retainer from a group of wealthy individuals, investments are screened by the managers and selectively backed by some of the angels. A good source of angel networks is the Australian Venture Capital Association Limited (AVCAL) website <www.avcal. com.au>. AVCAL has a guide to angel networks that it updates regularly along with an annual listing of investor members. The Australian Venture Capital Guide <www.vcjournal.com.au> publishes an annual directory that contains a guide to business introduction services.
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The other major change that has occurred in this market was the introduction in January 1991 of the new prospectus regulations. Before January 1991 there was always a question of whether entrepreneurs were breaking the law when seeking equity funds. Under the Companies Code it was necessary to register a prospectus only if a person was seeking money from the public. Who was ‘the public’ was a moot point. For example, an offer to 38 000 members of a credit union was ruled by the courts not to be an offer to the public. Under the new Corporations Code the rules are far less ambiguous. A prospectus must be registered unless there is a relevant exception. This is not the place to list all the exceptions but the key ones for entrepreneurs are: •
• • •
an offer of at least $50 000 in one lot—it does not matter if the investor takes up a smaller amount but the expectation must be the offer will be accepted for the minimum amount; an offer to an investor controlling net assets of at least $10 million; an offer to executive officers, their relatives, and family companies; an offer made to no more than 20 persons in the previous twelve months.
These four exemptions make it unlikely that any entrepreneur who wishes to follow the entrepreneur/venture capital game (see Chapter 6) need worry about having to register a prospectus. On the other hand, any entrepreneur should still follow the main precept of all prospectuses now being issued. All prospectuses now put out by law shall: . . . contain all such information as their investors and private advisers would reasonably require, and reasonably expect to find in the prospectus, for the purpose of making an informed assessment of: (a) the assets and liabilities, financial position, profits and losses, and prospects of the corporation; and (b) the rights attaching to the securities.
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Thus entrepreneurs can form a company, prepare a business plan, and go out and seek money from private investors and venture capital companies without fear of legal retribution. The other method of trying to raise seed and start-up money is by registering a prospectus and raising the money with the promise of listing the company. This can only be done during a very strong bull market. For example, in the eighteen months up to 30 June 2001, some 207 IPOs occurred on the Australian stock market, of which 118 raised less than $10 million. However, there are a number of reasons why listing a start-up company on the stock market is doomed to failure. The first difficulty is cost. To produce a prospectus a company needs a sponsoring broker, underwriters, investigating accountants, independent experts and a solicitor. Under the new prospectus requirements these individuals, along with the directors and executive officers of the company, are liable for any misrepresentations or misinformation in the prospectus. Therefore they must all carry out extensive due diligence. All these advisers want fees, documents must be printed, and listing and share registry fees must be paid. Costs vary, but a good recent example would be PEG Technology Limited, which successfully raised $12 million in June 2000. The expenses for the issue were $1.2 million, which represents 10 per cent of the funds raised. This figure is not high. Fundraising fees are capital costs and cannot be written off in the year of fundraising. Besides the initial costs, publicly listed companies also face the on-going costs of listing fees, stricter financial reporting requirements and continuous disclosure. Thus, while public listing is important and the ‘king hit’ in venture capital, it is not to be done lightly. The funds raised should be at least $5 million and used as a base for further growth. Another problem highlighted by the PEG Technology issue is the difficulty of obtaining spread. The Australian Stock Exchange requires that a listed company must have a minimum spread of 500 shareholders, each holding a minimum parcel worth $2000. This represents a total of $1 million. The sharebroker responsible for the PEG Technology issue raised the
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$12 million within days of the prospectus being registered. Its difficulty came when trying to achieve the required spread. This is not a criticism of either the sharebroker or PEG Technology, which was a quality small issue. PEG had an earnings history, defined niche and growth strategy and an excellent board. A major difficulty in listing small companies on any stock market is achieving spread. Another problem is the volatility in the share price caused by instability in the share register. Institutions prefer not to support small capitalised companies if they have no earnings history. As a general rule institutions prefer to invest in amounts greater than $1 million and have holdings less than 5 per cent of a company. This leads to a minimum capitalisation of $20 million, which is greater than the capital subscription of many start-ups. The share prices of small companies tend to fluctuate more widely than older, more established companies.
NEW TECHNOLOGY GROWTH FIRMS The typical investment by a venture capitalist occurs at Stage III, when the entrepreneur has proven the viability of the business, has a track record of sales and profits, and is seeking expansion finance to open in other areas or export. However, there is a start-up business that does attract venture capital and that is the NTGF or new technology growth firm. Gordon Bell, in his book High-Tech Ventures: The Guide for Entrepreneurial Success, developed one of the more thorough models of the NTGF. Bell was the second computer engineer hired by Digital Equipment Corporation and is justly famous as the product architect of DEC’s VAX product line. From a study of over 600 businesses Bell states that the successful NTGF goes through four well-defined stages of development (see Figure 7.1).
Stage I: concept stage While the idea for a company may come from anywhere, what drives the formation of an NTGF are new ideas for innovating
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Concept Stage I
Figure 7.1
Seed Stage II
Product development Stage III
65
Market development Stage IV
The four stages of development for a new technology growth firm
technology and building products in ways that have significant market benefit and commercial impact (e.g. $50 million sales in five years). Generally, two to three people begin this process and they are usually working either at a university or industrial research department, or for another high-technology marketing company. Six months is the typical duration of the concept stage, and the founders of the company fund their own activities. They prepare a ‘skeletal’ six- to ten-page business plan, which includes the central unifying vision of the company and statement of requirements for the seed stage. It is ideal if one of the founders is capable of leading the company (as its CEO) through initial product development and market entry, though in reality it is not at all unusual to find a change of leadership occurring during the first four stages. Two typical funding paths are used to fuel the company. One is to secure seed financing, sufficient to reinforce technology/ product uniqueness and complete adequate business planning for the subsequent stages. The other is to obtain (or raise a larger amount) of financing to cover all activities through Stage III, the product development stage. A key to achieving funding success is validation of the idea by three reputable outside sources.
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Stage II: seed stage The seed stage lasts from three months to a year and is when the concept for the company and product is explored in greater detail and planned. The stage is marked by an infusion of capital by either the founders, venture capitalists or other outside sources. The purpose of this stage is to conduct further research on the technology or product, including preparing prototypes of critical areas and/or components, and to build the formal business plan for the company. The key task is the translation of innovation to market benefits. If marketing aspects are unclear then time must be spent defining assumptions, building hypothetical applications using prospective user profiles and market models with a ‘map’ of the marketplace, including the most likely means of distribution to the user. Segments are sized according to a cursory market model and ‘missionary’ programs are developed to persuade buyers. The detailed business plan is developed at this stage and serves two purposes. The first is to secure the funds necessary for product development. Secondly, and more importantly, the business plan is the document that will guide the company’s operations, establish controls, and set goals and objectives for the firm. Because of this, a detailed business plan should always be prepared during the seed stage, even in cases where additional funding may not be required.
Stage III: product development stage The product development stage consists of four phases. 1
2
Product specification: during this sub-stage the engineering team is hired, the product detail specified and detailed planning done for the project and all the supporting design processes. In this phase, marketing and engineering must agree on the product specifications. Product design, which consists of formal testing of the specification; simulating the actual design; and building
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3 4
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operational prototypes for use. By the end of this phase, the quality and timeliness of the product design is a direct reflection of the quality of the team. Alpha (internal) product testing and product refinement, under operational conditions with real use. Beta (external) product testing at customer sites, in actual operational and environmental conditions.
Stage IV: market development stage In the market development stage, all the resources of the company are aimed at producing revenue. The first customer shipment marks entry into this stage and exit is usually marked by company acquisition, an IPO or a decision to remain private. When the product has proven itself, the company must begin to spend significantly more money producing, marketing and selling its product. The rate of expenditure typically triples when the company enters this stage, provided that the inventory costs can be kept to a minimum. The market development stage includes three distinct sub-stages. 1
2
Calibration, lasting three to nine months. These first months in the marketplace serve as an initial ‘acid test’ of all of the company’s plans and programs. Most critically, the market planning is tested and now fine-tuned, by ascertaining whether targeted customers will buy the product as predicted, and according to marketings’ and sales’ models of market development and revenue generation. The company’s priority is to support sales in all ways possible. Exit from calibration occurs only when the company is certain that, based on successful marketing and sales performance (75 per cent of plan or better), it has a valid financial model and business plan for operating the company. Expansion, normally six to twelve months in duration. With a refined business plan and market/sales model, the company begins to expand the market for its product(s),
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3
The venture capital spectrum
both in terms of sales volume and additional applications and market segments. Exit from expansion occurs when the company achieves its first quarter of profitability. Steady-state operation, marked by six consecutively profitable quarters. Having achieved profitability, the company demonstrates that it can operate as a stable business entity with solid long-term prospects.
PUBLIC-SECTOR FUNDING For entrepreneurs the key to making a successful NTGF is to realise that a major source of seed and start-up funding is the public sector. In most OECD countries the public sector provides seed finance and no doubt will continue to do so in the future. However, if there is a funding trend developing in the public sector, it is the recognition that it should switch the philosophy from a scattered approach of funding a multitude of small projects to large-scale funding of major projects. Surprisingly, no government has ever formally expressed the reasons for this change in strategy. Nevertheless, the economic reasoning is sound. Since World War II world trade has expanded significantly. Unfortunately for Australia, the segment showing the highest rate of growth has been elaborately transformed manufactures, while the slowest growing segment has been commodities. As the Espie Report noted (Australian Academy of Technological Sciences, 1993), it is not small companies that provide the elaborately transformed manufacturers but the rapidly growing companies. In the past ten years Australia has seen a number of these NTGFs emerge, such as Cochlear, ResMed and Vision Systems. In other words, to establish a more favourable balance of trade, Australia does not need to promote small business but rather rapidly growing businesses. If we define a rapidly growing business as one that doubles in turnover every year, then, if the first year’s turnover is $1 million, the company’s sales over a five-year period should total $31 million. Let us assume R&D expenditure is 10 per cent of turnover, and that the R&D budget is split equally
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between new products and product enhancement. In addition, if the average product life cycle is five years, the initial R&D funding base for the first product will need to be of the order of $1.5 million. This change in philosophy in the public sector augurs well for entrepreneurs. Previously, the scattered approach rejected commercial and realistic projects in favour of trying to spread as much money among as many projects as possible. Now entrepreneurs have an excellent opportunity to raise significant seed funding from government sources. The number of grant programs provided by the federal and state governments is substantial. Indeed, the federal government has set up a webpage <www.grantlink.gov.au> to help the aspiring entrepreneur establish the more suitable grant programs. However, there are three programs that should be examined closely.
COMET Commercialising Emerging Technologies (COMET) is a Commonwealth Government program focusing on innovation and its commercialisation. The program commenced on 17 November 1999. In 1999–2000 the program received 215 applications, approved 157 and distributed $8.3 million. COMET is designed to increase the commercialisation of innovative products, processes and services by providing individuals, early-stage growth firms and spin-off companies with a tailored package of support to improve their potential for successful commercialisation. National managers and business advisers have been engaged from the private sector to provide AusIndustry with the expertise needed in the delivery of COMET. There are two key areas where COMET operates. 1
Tailored Assistance for Commercialisation. This is an intensive stream in which clients work with a business adviser to develop and implement a tailored assistance plan designed to make clients more attractive to investors or venture
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partners. The assistance plan will focus on one or more of the following areas: • • • • • •
strategic/business planning market research establishment of a sound management team an intellectual property strategy proven technology a working prototype.
The program will provide 80 per cent of the cost with the remaining 20 per cent met by the applicant. In the majority of cases, assistance is between $20 000 to $50 000, but is capped at $100 000 for exceptional applicants. 2
Management Skills Development. This stream is designed for applicants with immediate needs in the area of management skills related to innovative practices and financial management of commercialisation. Applicants who receive funding under this stream are given assistance to undertake training in an existing management skills course. COMET will fund up to half the cost of a management skills course, to a maximum of $5000.
START START stands for Strategic Assistance for Research and Development (R&D START) and has been operating since 1996. The R&D START program, available only to Australian companies, is a merit-based program designed to assist Australian industry to undertake research and development and commercialisation through a range of grants and loans. In 1999–2000 the Industrial Research & Development (IR&D) Board offered nearly $177 million to 219 new projects from some 304 applications. More than 25 per cent of the projects approved came from companies with less than $1 million turnover, while more than 70 per cent came from companies with less than $5 million
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turnover. Over 75 per cent of the projects received amounts less than $1 million. Projects must involve R&D, but can also include related product development and market research activities. Projects should have clearly identified commercial potential and applicants need to be able to demonstrate that they are able to fund their share of project costs. Grants up to $15 million are available, but typically range between $100 000 and $5 million. Grants available are dependent on company turnover. •
•
Core Start provides grants of up to 50 per cent of project costs for Australian companies with an annual turnover of less than $50 million. Start Plus provides grants of up to 20 per cent of project costs for larger Australian companies with group turnover of $50 million or more.
High-quality projects can obtain further assistance through Start Premium, which offers companies an additional repayable amount which tops up either Core Start or Start Plus assistance to a maximum of 56.25 per cent of project costs. For larger companies, which receive a grant of 20 per cent of project costs, Start Premium can provide an additional 36.25 per cent of repayable financial assistance. Applicants are required to provide a repayment plan as part of the application.
Innovation Investment Funds The Innovation Investment Fund (IIF) program was announced in the May 1997 Federal Budget. This program aims at creating a self-sustaining Australian early-stage technology-based venture capital market and to improve the commercialisation outcomes of Australia’s strong R&D capabilities. The objective of the program is to set up a number of VC funds that invest in companies which are commercialising innovative technology that have an annual revenue of $4 million or less, averaged over
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the past two years, with maximum sales of $5 million in any one year. Investments are in the form of equity. Funds operate in the following manner: •
•
•
•
• •
• •
• • • •
the ratio of Commonwealth capital to privately sourced capital contributed to the licensed fund will not exceed a ratio of 2:1; a fund may be structured as a unit trust, company or other structure approved by the IR&D Board, consistent with the Corporations Law; funds will not have access to debt, with the exception of short-term debt for the purpose of maintaining the shortterm liquidity of the fund; a fund must source at least 30 per cent of the private capital from entities not related, associated or affiliated with the fund manager; a fund must invest only in new technology based firms, as defined in the guidelines; a fund must provide funding to the investee companies by means of equity purchase; at least 40 per cent of the fund’s invested capital must be in defined early stage investments; at least 75 per cent of the fund’s capital must be invested within five years; an investee company must not receive funds in excess of $4 million or 10 per cent of the fund’s initial capital, whichever is the smaller; the Commonwealth will realise its investment in the fund in a prudent manner after ten years; all transactions are to be carried out at arm’s length; funds must not have any conflict of interest, and must not engage in any form of self-dealing; distribution of returns will be made in the following order: 1 2
government and private capital (pro-rata) indexed to the long-term bond rate pro-rata; of the funds remaining, 10 per cent will go to government and 90 per cent to the private investors; and
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20 per cent of the private distribution will be retained by the fund manager provided they achieve a hurdle rate of return greater than the long-term bond rate. In effect the government bears up to two thirds of the risk while taking 10 per cent of the reward. Investors take up to one third of the risk yet receive 70 per cent of the reward. So far the IR&D Board has awarded nine IIF licences. Five were awarded in the first round and the firms were operational by December 1998. Four more licences were awarded in the second round in November 2000 and the firms were operational in June 2001. Committed capital under the program now exceeds $350 million. The IIF model has been used for the Renewable Energy Equity Fund and will be used in the newly announced Biotechnology Fund. A good strategy for entrepreneurs is to raise grant money conditionally. The game then becomes one of interesting other investors, conditional on raising R&D Start money, which is then obtained. Entrepreneurs can then go to the other investors with their R&D Start money as a bargaining chip. Any proposal that results in doubling of the investors’ leverage will have some appeal. To be successful, of course, entrepreneurs require a commercially valid business plan. How to write one is the subject of Part Three of this book. A good example of a company that used this strategy is Fingerscan. The company was originally founded in 1989 with an agency to import a fingerprint identification system from the USA. Armed with a knowledge of the market and an understanding of what it needed, founder John Parselle raised money from a combination of government grants and investors (Australian Mezzanine Investments). This conditional fundraising strategy is a good way to start an NTGF. A study of companies that had received R&D grants showed that around 45 per cent had ten employees or less; and around 43 per cent of them were aged three years or less at the time of their application and nearly two-thirds were six years old or less.
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Other government funding programs The federal government has several other grant and industry assistance programs. Some are directed towards specific industry segments and are often the result of campaign promises made in the heat of an election. For example, there are over 20 agricultural R & D funds. The budgets are large and often not allocated. Besides the federal government funding, each state also has several bodies providing funding assistance. For example, New South Wales has a scheme known as FIRST (Funding for Innovation, Research and State Technology) which so far has invested $2.5 million in seed projects. It is estimated that there are over 500 different business assistance programs available to Australian companies. Accessing the appropriate program can be quite a daunting task. Accordingly, the federal and state governments have set up in each state and territory a single entry point for all Australian government assistance programs and services called AusIndustry. That organisation in turn has produced a web portal <www. bizlink.gov.au>, a directory of business assistance programs and services designed to assist small and medium enterprises. There are many consultants who specialise in raising money from government bodies. The good consultant charges on a success-only basis and typical rates, depending on the funds raised, are between 3 and 5 per cent. Consultants can be most useful providing they are wired into the network—and the only way to find out is to establish their track record. The good consultant should be able to screen your proposal and provide realistic counsel on the potential for fundraising. The consultant should also have good lobbying contacts and be able to advise on the preparation of grant applications. Your local COMET office should be able to supply a register of suitable consultants.
PRIVATE-SECTOR INSTITUTIONAL FUNDING While the IIF program provides a mixture of public and private equity, a number of private venture capital companies also
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provide early stage funding. Some VC funds are totally dedicated to early stage funding, others allocate part of their committed capital. Success on raising funds depends as much on exogenous factors as on indigenous ones. Key issues, such as how well the company performs to its business plan, its product competitiveness and its perceived intangible value, will all determine funding availability. However, exogenous factors such as the condition of the overall economy, the desire of a given source of funds to be in a particular sector and the current health of the financial community are equally important. For example, up to March 2000 an Internet-based business plan was very attractive to venture capitalists. Six months later the prefix e- or the suffix .com would be enough to kill a transaction. Consequently, given the lifespan of this book the reader is recommended to obtain the most recent copy of a venture capital directory. An excellent directory, Australian Venture Capital Guide (the Guide), is produced annually by Pollitecon Publications, who also produce the monthly Australian Venture Capital Journal (AVCJ). The AVCJ is well worth its subscription price as it gives a flavour to the industry and contains useful articles and stories. Readers who want either the Guide or the AVCJ should contact Pollitecon Publications at <www.vcjournal.com.au>. The 2001 Guide lists 55 sources of seed capital, 65 sources of start-up capital and 92 sources of early expansion capital. As with seed capital, start-up capital is typically provided by funds that either specialise in specific industries, such as information technology, or in geographic or regional preference. Another good source of information is the Australian Venture Capital Association, which can be contacted at <www.avcal.com.au>
CONCLUSION The total amount of R&D spending in Australia exceeds $8 billion. The amount of total seed and start-up capital available in Australia to commercialise this R&D up until 1997 was around $50 million. Professor Gordon Murray, a leading
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European academic expert in venture capital, defined this imbalance in funding as the ‘hourglass’ effect: a large amount of funded R&D was not able to be commercialised because it was squeezed by the lack of early stage funding. The IIF scheme has made a substantial difference to this funding bottleneck. Even so, the providers of early stage capital regard their biggest problem as finding suitable investments. Part Three describes how to access this stock of seed and startup capital, but in the following chapter we consider the sources of second-stage financing.
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8
Expansion capital
In this chapter we examine the significant sources of expansion finance. Expansion finance is the generic term for larger second-stage companies and development financing. A second-stage company is one making sales and losses; expansion financing in this case refers to companies with annual revenues greater than $5 million. Development financing is provided to a company making sales and profits. Funding again is available from many sources. The Australian Venture Capital Guide 2001 states that of the 135 managers listed 92 are interested in early expansion investment and 95 in expansion opportunities. This chapter adopts the same format as Chapter 7, discussing public-sector funding first followed by private-sector funding.
PUBLIC-SECTOR FUNDING The most popular source of federal funding is the Export Market Development Grants (EMDG) scheme, which is operated by Austrade <www.austrade.gov.au>. Using the EMDG, companies recoup expenditure made to promote exports. Applicants may qualify for reimbursement of up to 50 per cent of eligible export marketing expenses above $15 000 per annum, to a maximum of eight grants. Up to $200 000 per annum may be reimbursed, or a maximum of $1.6 million. In 1999–2000, $135.7 million was paid out to 2956 companies.
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To be eligible, the exporter must have sales of less than $50 million in the grant year combined with export earnings of less than $25 million. The exporter must also have incurred at least $20 000 of eligible export expenses under the scheme. First-time applicants are required to satisfy Grant Entry requirements, which include providing an acceptable export plan. Goods made in Australia should have at least 50 per cent Australian content, while goods made outside Australia must have at least 50 per cent Australian content in at least 75 per cent of their components. There are six categories of expenses eligible under the EMDG scheme: • • • • • •
overseas representation marketing visits communications free samples trade fairs, literature and advertising short-term consultants
Because of the small size of the Australian markets, many rapidly-growing companies should plan to have export sales. Indeed, the term ‘born global’ has been applied to those companies that plan to export even at their formation stage. The EMDG scheme is a useful source of funds. What the entrepreneur should do is carefully time the first expenditure to ensure maximum recoupment. The maximum expenditure which can be recouped in the first year is $200 000. Usually, a US office will cost about $500 000 to set up and it will take about a year before sales start. Hence, as the Australian financial year runs from the beginning of July to the end of June, it makes sense to begin operations midway in the financial year, say in January. The enterprise should then be able to recoup start-up costs over two fiscal years. Most of the state governments, while enthusiastic supporters of having venture capitalists in their state, have withdrawn from having state-run venture capital firms. The massive write-offs
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during the late 1980s of the Victorian Economic Development Corporation and the West Australian Development Corporation have probably ensured that state public-sector involvement as venture capital investors will be restrained. Technology parks are another state government initiative, which may in the long run turn out to be more visible than useful. In the USA, sociologists have observed that the two largest high-technology clusters are next to universities. Silicon Valley lies between Stanford and the University of California; Route 128 circumscribes Harvard and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. One may debate the causality in this correlation, but the correlation alone was seen as a justification for technology parks. Several state governments have set up parks with modern buildings and offer rent holidays to attract new enterprises. The most famous is the technology park in Adelaide, but Queensland, Tasmania, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have all been imitators. The Advanced Technology Park in Sydney, based in the old railway engineering works at Redfern, has achieved some major funding successes particularly in the field of photonics. This park was a joint venture between the universities of Sydney, New South Wales and Macquarie. The jury is still out on whether the technology parks will be a success. While the universities may act as providers of skilled labour, there is a danger of regarding universities as all the same. Most people would include the four American institutions named above in any top ten universities list. Moreover, it is doubtful if one could name another group of four universities that would offer as many Nobel Prize winners. In addition, these four universities are all richly endowed and have a long tradition of funding prototypes. Hewlett-Packard, DEC and Wang are examples of companies whose first sales came from producing prototypes for universities. Silicon Valley and Route 128 also have other significant advantages. San Francisco and Boston are significant financial centres; both cities would have larger venture capital funding bases than either Sydney or
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Melbourne. Both areas also have access to inexpensive labour— Silicon Valley has Mexican immigrants while New England had a large pool of unemployed from the closure of the original New England textile factories. On the other hand, there is no doubt some Australian research and development is of world class, two examples being the bionic ear and the Sullivan sleep apnoea mask. In both these examples perspicacious entrepreneurs used a combination of federal government funding and Australian venture capital to commercialise the research and development. In both cases the technology has led to companies valued in excess of $1 billion each.
PRIVATE-SECTOR FUNDING The most obvious sources of debt funding are the trading banks and finance companies which, provided they have security, will generally lend. Sometimes entrepreneurs complain when seeking funding from banks or finance companies because they must provide either security or guarantees. They ask why security is necessary when the banks have so much money. They forget that, while the banks do have money, it is nearly all in the form of deposits; only a small part of the total assets of a bank is equity. Surprising as it may seem, most banks and finance companies are equity-short. Indeed, one reason why the banks are on lower price–earnings multiples compared with most other industrial companies is the threat of recurrent rights issues. For example, banks make most of their profit on the interest spread between the funds they borrow and the funds they lend less administration costs. The actual profit on total assets is less than 1 per cent, so retained earnings build up slowly. The regulatory authorities require every $100 of deposits to be supported by a specific amount of equity. A common prudential ratio for a bank is $1 of equity to support $12.50 of debt. The banks not only suffer a loss of equity by writing off a bad debt, but they also have to suffer an opportunity cost by having to reduce debt levels by $12.50 for each
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$1 of bad debt. Consequently, banks usually adopt a policy of equity maintenance by undertaking few, if any, venture capital investments. Sometimes, as happened in the late 1980s when the Australian government ran a lax monetary policy and allowed explosive credit growth, this policy is ignored. Then the bad debt write-offs become significant when the bubble bursts. Apart from the banks, another source of ‘debt funding’ is supplier’s credit. Retailers and wholesalers have known this for years and many a business has funded itself by stretching out payments to suppliers and obtaining cash from customers. Overseas suppliers, especially those trying to build market share, are often able to offer generous payment terms. These terms are often available because of a loan guarantee supplied by a government trying to encourage exports or by a government body set up to encourage exports. However, while debt funding and creditors are important components of the financing of any company, fast-growth entrepreneurs need to use venture capital. Fortunately, in the past five years the venture capital industry has shown explosive growth.
CURRENT SIZE OF THE VENTURE INDUSTRY A sign of increasing maturity in any industry is the formation of an industry association. The Australian Venture Capital Association Limited (AVCAL) organises an annual conference, generally held in October and acts as spokesperson for the industry. Its website <www.avcal.com.au> contains a directory of members and, as at 2001, had 42 investor members. In collaboration with Venture Economics it produces an annual survey of the Australian Venture Capital Industry. The industry history for the past five years is tabulated in Table 8.1. In 1995 the VC industry totalled some $850 million. Total capital raised for the period 1996–2000, according to the table above, is $2.8 billion. This leads to an estimate of capital under management of $3.6 billion. This figure is partially corroborated by the first ABS survey carried out for the year ending June 2000. According to the
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Table 8.1
AVCAL/Venture Economics summary of the venture capital industry
Year Number of VC managers Number of new funds New capital raised ($m) Number of new investments $ invested Average new investment ($m) Number of exits
1996
1997
1998
38 7 103 94 186 1.98
46 11 409 141 309 2.19
54 13 266 80 221 2.76 14
1999
2000
62 68 23 42 812 1197 124 145 405 832 3.27 5.74 17 13
survey there were 97 active venture capital managers managing 123 funds with some $4.9 billion under management and some $2.6 billion invested. The Australian Venture Capital Guide 2001 provides the final estimate of size. It says there are 120 Australian VC managers that have some $7.4 billion of capital commitments of which $3.5 billion has been invested. I take a middle view of the three estimates. Another driver for expansion funding has been the success of the Pooled Development Funds (PDF) scheme, which according to the ABS survey accounted for 47 (38 per cent) of the 123 Australian venture capital funds and $568 million (21 per cent) of the $2.76 billion in assets. The PDF scheme was first announced in the February 1992 Economic Statement as a new vehicle to replace the MIC program, which expired in June 1991. The scheme has been modified on several occasions. The PDFs have been given certain advantages: • • • •
income of PDFs will be taxed at 15 per cent; distributions of dividends from PDFs will be tax exempt or carry franking credits; Australian pension funds investing in a PDF will have any tax paid by the PDF proportionally rebated; capital gains on the disposal of PDF shares will be tax exempt.
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In return the PDFs have to comply with a number of criteria. The PDFs: • • • • •
•
•
must be companies; may only invest in newly issued shares in companies having total assets less than $50 million; may not invest more than 30 per cent of their committed capital in any one business; may not take up less than 10 per cent of each investee business; may not invest in retailing operations and real estate other than tourism projects or industrial buildings used by an investee in a manufacturing project; may not have a shareholder with greater than 30 per cent shareholding unless that shareholder is either a bank or life insurance company; must invest 65 per cent of funds raised within five years.
PDFs have been used as a mechanism for investing in small listed equities, mainly in the resources area. However, a number of venture capital fund managers have chosen the PDF structure, including SME Growth, Loftus and St George/Nanyang. The most popular structure is as a listed retail fund, but the unlisted institutional fund has gained popularity in recent years.
CONCLUSION The ABS estimated the Australian VC industry to have some $4.9 billion in investor commitments, which is $257 per head of population and is beginning to put Australia on a par with countries such as Canada. The activity levels in Australia are much higher than is traditionally recognised, as Table 8.2 demonstrates. In terms of dollars invested the USA is much bigger, but in terms of deals done Australia is far more active than is generally recognised. The merchant banks, stockbrokers, large accounting organisations, major legal firms and the National Industry Extension
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Table 8.2
A comparison of the US and Australian venture capital industries
Item VC invested (2000) GDP % VC/GDP Population (2000) VC deals done (2000) Deals/million population
USA
Australia
$60.5 billion $9.9 trillion 0.61 276 million 5119 19
$991 million $622 billion 0.16 19.3 million 514 27
Service (NIES) data bases are all sources that can provide entrepreneurs with introductions to potential investors. The reader seeking funds is also recommended to use the directories mentioned at the end of Chapter 7. Investment bankers on Wall Street have a famous saying: ‘Money talks, the deal walks.’ Entrepreneurs are reminded that perhaps the most critical factor for success in raising money is whether the investor is familiar with the investment. One of the most useful tasks entrepreneurs can do is to make a half-day available each month visiting potential new investors. The entrepreneur should prepare a simple 20–25 minute presentation using a tool such as PowerPoint software that covers the key points and progress of his or her business. The presentation should be updated every six months and presented to venture capitalists on a regular basis.
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Funding for management buy-outs We have now examined two of the three major types of venture capital funding. Seed and start-up venture capital is funding for companies that have neither sales nor profits. Expansion venture capital is funding for companies that have sales but whose profits can grow significantly. The third kind of venture capital is for those companies whose sales and profits are stable, and which are targets for a buy-out. There are three classes of buy-outs. The first type is when the current management organises the purchase of the business from the owners and takes a substantial equity participation in the company. The most famous and successful Australian management buy-out (MBO) was Kerry Packer’s purchase in 1983, for $350 million, of the 50 per cent of Australian Consolidated Press his family did not control. A leveraged buy-out (LBO) classically occurs when the purchaser is an independent party. The basic financial structure is similar. The cash flow of a target company is used to service and repay debt secured by the assets of the company. Debt to equity ratios of 4:1 are common for buy-outs compared with the financial norm of 1:1. If the LBO acquirer also provides the management, the transaction is sometimes described as a management buy-in or MBI. Vendors typically sell businesses to management for a number of reasons. One is to shed a non-core activity. Another is if the vendor is under financial pressures. A third reason is if the vendor wants to rearrange the assets in a portfolio of
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businesses that the vendor may hold. Typically, the advantages of a MBO are speed and confidentiality, the retention of special relationships (particularly the management with key clients and suppliers), and the positive public relations that may occur. The major disadvantage may be price; if the MBO is particularly successful, shareholders of the original vendor have been known to take legal action against the vendor directors. Management participates in a buy-out for several reasons, such as gaining control over their destiny and achieving ultimate strategic responsibility for the business. While both of these are personally satisfying, the other key reason is gaining wealth through ownership. For many managers it is the only opportunity they will have to make serious money, defined as millions of dollars. Once it has been established that the target has a history of steady cash flow, the future cash flow is reliable due to a strong industry position, and the management team is strong, the next task is to try to finance the deal. The first task when seeking finance is to carry out an audit of the assets of the enterprise and establish how much secured financing could reasonably be raised. Within the lending industry several rules of thumb have developed about the amount lent on the asset provided. Property and debtors are regarded as the safest assets for security and accordingly one can borrow up to 75–80 per cent of asset value. This ratio will vary according to the quality of the asset. Debtors’ ledgers that are riddled with bad debts and contain large clients with poor credit ratings will be regarded as poor collateral. So will a poorly located factory. Stock and plant are considered less safe assets for security and most lenders have had the bitter experience of the monetary results from a stock or equipment auction. Consequently these assets will often secure lending facilities of only up to 50 per cent of book value. Stock that has a low turnover or high risk of obsolescence, such as fashion items, may secure less debt. Similarly, equipment with a limited resale market will have lower collateral value.
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Besides the value of the assets, the other key to obtaining secured lending is to demonstrate how the loan principal will be repaid. Banks and merchant banks are the usual sources of secured debt and banks in particular want to see principal repayments in any debt-servicing plan. On the other hand, while merchant banks will consider roll-over financing, the interest charged usually makes merchant bank financing the earliest to be paid off. Secured lenders will often want additional charges over personal assets of the managers or shareholder guarantees. This requirement should not be necessary for an on-going business. Fortunately the deregulation of the finance sector has led to increased competition and astute entrepreneurs should be able to find a lending institution willing to lend yet not seek extra collateral. If entrepreneurs cannot get the financial support from institutions, the fault probably lies more with the deal itself than with the lender. The next step is to establish how much equity the managers can invest. The difference between the consideration required by the seller and the sum of the secured lending and manager’s equity is the financing gap. If the financing gap is zero or negative the deal can go ahead, otherwise unsecured lenders and equity from institutions must cover the difference. This financing is known as ‘mezzanine financing’ because it ranks between the upper levels of debt and the bottom floor of equity in the unfortunate event of liquidation. The financing instrument used by mezzanine financiers is typically a hybrid debt/equity instrument. The usual instruments are either subordinated debt with options, convertible notes or convertible redeemable preference shares. All these instruments are described in Chapter 19. The following is a typical buy-out structure supplied by Catalyst Investment Managers (now owned by Prudential), widely regarded as Australia’s most successful MBO fund manager. The target is a business with annual sales of, say, $30 million and an EBIT of $3.3 million (shown in Table 9.1). On a valuation of $14 million the price/EBIT ratio would be 4:2.
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Table 9.1 Assets
A typical balance sheet for a small MBO $m
Debtors 4.3 Inventory 9.0 Goodwill 2.0 Fixed Assets 2.2 Less: Creditors and provisions (3.5) Total 14.0
Liabilities Bank debt Mezzanine debt Fund equity Management equity
$m 6.5 6.0 1.05 0.45
70% 30%
14.0
Typically buy-out funds prefer price/EBIT ratios of less than 5 and no more than 7. The interest cover would be around 2.1 and this is near the maximum with which lenders would be comfortable. In Australia the mezzanine financier would normally also be the specialist buy-out fund. The fund manager would be looking for an overall return of 25 per cent internal rate of return (IRR) on the total of its equity and mezzanine financing. It would achieve this IRR by convincing the bank to allow the mezzanine debt to be repaid first. Say this was achieved in three years and the company’s EBIT and valuation has not changed. The total equity is now worth $7.5 million. Management’s portion is 30 per cent and they have made five times their money, or an IRR of 71 per cent. The buy-out fund’s portion is now worth $5.25 million but it did have exposure of $7.05 million in total at the beginning. The payback schedule plus interest on the mezzanine financing would lead to 30 per cent plus IRR. The problem with this buy-out is the investor’s exit. Assume the bank debt interest is around 12 per cent or, say, $800 000 per year. Assuming an EBIT of $3.3 million and a corporate tax rate of 30 per cent, the post-tax profit is $1.8 million. A company with high-growth prospects and a post-tax profit of $1.8 million will attract support for a public listing, and give its investors an exit. However, a low-growth company, which is the type favoured by buy-out funds (they want to retire debt, not fund increases in working capital), would be unlikely to obtain
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listing support at that level of profitability. How does the buyout investor then exit? The likely approach is with an acquisition of, say, equivalent size. This would lead to an entity with post-tax profits of around $4 million, which would be an attractive public listing. The problem with this strategy is the strain that this puts on the management team. Buy-outs are stressful. The management must continually focus on costs and minimising working capital. Capital expenditure is kept as low as possible. Research in the UK shows that while a management team immediately produces a 10–20 per cent increase in value due to efficiency increases, after about four years the management team burns out. The first executive to go is generally the finance officer. Competition, sensing a weakened competitor, will often engage in price warfare, leading to resignations from sales and marketing. The fixed assets starved of capital expenditure begin to deteriorate and production begins to suffer. There are few management teams and CEOs who can first do a successful buy-out and then follow it with a successful acquisition. There are other providers of funds besides mezzanine financiers. One key provider of finance can be the vendors, who may abstain from providing equity but will often provide debt. The provision of a seller’s note can often be structured as a discount security, which means the interest payment is paid at the same time as the principal is due. The valuation often determines whether vendor finance is provided. If the valuation of the business is less than book value and therefore the vendor must take a loss, it will be a persuasive entrepreneur who can then induce the vendor to provide finance. On the other hand, if the vendor does not take a loss on the sale he or she will be much more amenable about providing vendor finance. The other source of funds is the business itself. Usually one aims at a 5–10 per cent reduction in working capital, as the managers realise it is their money at stake. Asset sales (formerly called asset stripping but now called asset redeployment), especially in real estate, have been a common source of funds, as is sale and lease-back of property. The collapse of the
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property market and the property trust industry in Australia has now made sale and lease-backs far more difficult to achieve. It is useful to compare what has happened in the USA and UK markets with Australia. The USA divides the market between what is called ‘classic’ venture capital, which is early and expansion equity finance for growth companies, and what is called ‘merchant’ venture capital, which is the LBO/MBO capital described above. In the USA around two-thirds of the total venture capital market is LBO/MBO and in the UK the figure is nearly 70 per cent. In both these countries commentators often decry the LBO/MBO funds as not being ‘true’ venture capitalists, but more like financial engineers who earn their returns by using a combination of equity and mezzanine finance. In Australia the LBO/MBO market has had a chequered history. Since 1992 at least six fund managers that had targeted the buy-out market have left. During the 1990s it is fair to say there was only one successful specialist buy-out manager in Australia, Catalyst. This fund manager used the positioning statement ‘Australia’s Management Buy-Out People’ with only a limited amount of hyperbole. The first Catalyst fund of $14 million was very successful, with an IRR of over 30 per cent including such companies as National Textiles and Ingram. The management closed a second fund in 1994, raising a further $36 million, and a third fund in 1997 of $100 million. Subsequently Catalyst was taken over by Prudential, one of the more successful UK LBO/MBO managers. In the late 1990s several new major LBO/MBO managers entered the Australian market, including Pacific Equity Partners and CHAMP. Never has so much Australian LBO/MBO funding been available. The Australian Venture Capital Guide 2001 records 63 of the 135 named managers as having an interest in management buy-outs. Nevertheless, the level of LBO/MBO activity in Australia remains much lower than in the USA and UK. Indeed, in 2000 both the AVCAL and PWC surveys recorded drops in activity. The PWC survey saw a drop in activity from 25 to 11 transactions, and a drop in value from $281 million to $169 million.
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Why is Australia different? One factor is cultural. Even though there have been a number of successful buy-outs, such as Orlando, NBN and others, there is a stigma attached to buyouts, stemming mainly from the excesses of the 1980s. Indeed, whereas overseas ‘entrepreneur’ is still a term of respect used for a business builder, in Australia the term was taken over by wheeler-dealers and con-men who were idolised by the media. In Australia managers rarely consider themselves as potential owners; they see themselves only as employees. Another factor is the competition provided by the public listing. There are over 100 stockbrokers in Australia, many of whom will cut fees for a large listing. There is also a considerable appetite from the financial institutions that highly value a business that can provide a steady stream of fully franked dividends. There have been a number of occasions in the last five years where specialist overseas LBO funds seeking to buy a division from a major corporate have been out-bid by a stockbroker underwriting a public listing. In the USA the underwriting fees are much higher and the listing process is substantially longer. Buy-outs in Australia are probably subject to a higher level of business risk than buy-outs overseas. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, the Australian market is small. The essence of the buy-out market can be thought of as moving companies back and forth across the listed/unlisted boundary depending on the investment climate. The ideal target is the non-core division of a listed company, which is purchased and, after significant debt is paid off, re-listed. To do this you need companies which have a minimum turnover of around $50 million. There are not many organisations of that size in Australia. Secondly, the business markets in Australia are also fickle. A major underlying strength of the Australian economy is its primary producers. Unfortunately the price and demand for commodities varies, which leads to fluctuations in demand for other products and services. Revenues for most companies in Australia are far more volatile than overseas and fixed costs
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are often hard to reduce for larger companies because of the industrial relations system and the comparatively heavy weight of government charges. Finally, the financial system in Australia is volatile. The variability in interest rates is probably one of the highest of the OECD countries. Buy-outs which rely on stability to work successfully have had mixed success in Australia. Some have been successful but there have been a number of wellpublicised failures. Nevertheless the LBO/MBO market in Australia can be expected to grow. One market in particular that is expected to grow is the public-to-private market. This refers to the privatisation of listed public companies by a debt-financed vehicle. Early in 2001 the board of Goodman Fielder reportedly rejected the first major public-to-private offer made in Australia. More will surely come.
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Part Three RAISING THE MONEY— WHAT ENTREPRENEURS MUST DO
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10
How to write a business plan In the next seven chapters we outline the various steps entrepreneurs must take to raise funds. As suggested earlier, the preferred method is to raise equity from venture capitalists and other sources. Thus in this section we will concentrate on this fundraising method in our choice of examples and techniques. However, the principles and advice provided are equally applicable to other sources of funds such as banks and finance companies. Essential to success is a formal business plan. There are some legendary examples of entrepreneurs who raised funds without a written plan, or at best on the back of a napkin, but these are the exception rather than the rule. The following chapters provide considerable advice on the content of a business plan, but in this chapter we will focus on generalities. The first question is, Who should write the business plan? The answer is simple: the entrepreneur and his or her team. The business plan is the demonstrable proof of how thoroughly entrepreneurs understand their business. If they cannot write about the business, it is unlikely they will be able to run it. Successful entrepreneurs are usually good communicators in writing. There are many companies and individuals offering a consultancy service for the preparation of business plans. Some can be useful for checking figures or doing research. However, as a rule entrepreneurs should not use consultants to write a plan unless the entrepreneur makes a substantial contribution.
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Preparing a business plan is not simple and is often neglected. The procrastination is often due to deficiencies in the business concept. In an oral presentation it is easy to work up an idealistic fervour. However, the oral presentation should be regarded as a sketch—the business plan stands as the finished product. It is easier to talk about a concept rather than to write about it. The absence of a plan usually indicates some combination of lack of drive, inadequate business experience or poor business concept. A business plan is more than a method of raising funds or separating entrepreneurial wheat from chaff. It is the blueprint for building the business. Just as it would be folly to renovate a house without architectural drawings, so an investor would be foolish to invest in a business without a formal business plan. The business plan’s role as a blueprint transcends its use as a fundraising document. Anyone who has renovated or built a house knows the first plan is usually different from the finished product. When the concept is down on paper it is easier to change and improve. A plan may go through several modifications. Even more important, it may demonstrate the impracticality of the concept. It is disappointing to prepare a business plan and later conclude the business idea is weak. But the disappointment is minor compared with the pain and anguish that results from a failed business enterprise. Today’s entrepreneurs have a big advantage over those of just ten years ago in access to personal computers. Personal computers have probably cut down the task of producing a business plan by a factor of three to four. Word processing programs, particularly those supplied with spelling and grammar checkers, help entrepreneurs to produce clear typewritten prose with no spelling errors. Spreadsheet programs are another useful tool for producing financial projections of cash flows, profit and loss statements and balance sheets. In addition, the Internet now makes the gathering of market information far easier and less costly. Finally, entrepreneurs can buy business-planning tools over the Internet. A business plan is not just a prospectus or information memorandum. For those readers unfamiliar with the terms, a
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prospectus is the formal document used to raise funds from public non-professional investors. It is a typeset document that must be registered with the Australian Securities Commission. Companies wishing to go public, finance companies raising funds via debentures and unit trusts seeking subscriptions from the public are organisations that prepare prospectuses. Information memoranda are similar documents, used when raising funds from professional investors. Word processors are used for information memoranda and produce documents that are of good quality. They are typically prepared for institutional fundraising by private placement or for financing projects. A prospectus or information memorandum is not a business plan. However, a business plan used to raise money from professional investors is an information memorandum. While the business plan should not just be a device for raising funds, whether the plan raises funds or not is a good measure of its potential success. It is the key selling document for getting a foot through the door of the venture capitalist. The average venture capitalist probably receives around five business plans a week. They rarely read them for the first time at the office, being more likely to scan them while commuting or at home in the evening. Thus if entrepreneurs want their business plan read they should keep it under 40 pages and ensure it will fit into a briefcase. If not, the plan will sit in the pending tray for several weeks until guilt finally forces the venture capitalist to spend ten minutes skimming the contents and writing the rejection email. One of the most important sections of the business plan is the executive summary. This section should be written last but have the most time spent on it. (Many business plans conform to the saying attributed to Oscar Wilde: ‘I have written you a long letter because I did not have the time to write you a short one.’) The executive summary should probably be rewritten six or seven times. The first paragraph is crucial and the first sentence critical. Just as in an advertisement, the first sentence of the executive summary must grab the reader’s attention.
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The executive summary needs to contain the salient points of the business but three sections are fundamental: the concept, the objectives and the deal. The concept, sometimes called the mission statement, defines the business in terms of what is to be bought, by whom, and why. Theodore Levitt, in a paper entitled ‘Marketing Myopia’, published in 1960, illustrated the importance of defining the business mission. He provided two now-famous examples—the railroad industry, which declined because management failed to realise its customers were buying transport, and the movie industry, which slumped until management understood its customers were buying entertainment. The managing director of a large Australian chemical company that had just completed a three-year period of sustained growth was asked for the secret of his success. He replied: ‘I spent the first three months talking to management, customers, suppliers and employees working out what we did. I then spent the next three months agreeing with management a 25-word mission statement for our business, which made no reference to chemicals. The next two and a half years I spent reminding the management and employees of the jointly prepared mission statement.’ Without a mission statement a business can muddle through but it can rarely sustain a high rate of growth. The objectives of the concept should be twofold: financial and personal. Financial objectives are simple. They comprise the target figures for sales, profits and returns on investment. Personal objectives are equally important. Far too often the founders of the business realise too late that their personal objectives conflict with the needs of the business. In the end, much of the capital accumulated by these businesses has ended up in the bank accounts of lawyers. If one founder wants to reinvest the capital to grow the business while another wants a high income to pursue an expensive lifestyle, it is better to resolve the conflict now rather than later. Finally, the executive summary must specify the deal. Valuations and structures are discussed in subsequent chapters.
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The executive summary should at least state the funding requirements and on what basis the investors are expected to invest. The deal will change during negotiation but it can save much time if the investor understands the entrepreneur’s expectations. The executive summary should enable a potential investor to answer three key questions: • • •
How much money do they want? What are they going to do with it? How much money am I going to make?
The fourth question any investor tries to answer is, ‘What are the risks?’ While some mention may be made of risk in the executive summary, risk analysis and how these risks are to be mitigated is a critical section. No two business plans have the same structure but they have certain segments in common. In the marketing segment there is typically a ten-page market analysis section. This should be followed by a five-page market strategy section that defines how the product or service is to be sold. The next segment should contain operational information. Typically, there should be sections on people, management structure, corporate ownership, future product development, product ownership and manufacturing. Overall this segment should contain 15 to 20 pages. Finally, there is the financial segment, which contains summaries of the cash flow, profit and loss, and balance sheet projections. One or two year’s history combined with three years of estimates, tabulated on two to four pages, are all that is necessary. Once the business plan is completed, the entrepreneur should ask several associates who work in the business to read and criticise it. The feedback should be invaluable. The key questions to ask are whether they would invest in the concept, and if not, why not? If the reply is negative then the entrepreneur must seriously reconsider continuing, either forgetting the project or trying to license the product or process. Budding
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entrepreneurs should realise that for most inventions licensing is the preferred alternative. While the potential reward is lower, the risks and time spent are far less. The frequent complaint of inventors that licensees do not take up their inventions is usually a result of wishful thinking on the inventor’s part. The reality is that the pressure of competition usually means that if an invention or process does have a chance of commercial success it will be tried. One only has to look at the statistics (where over 95 per cent of products launched fail in the marketplace) to realise that companies must often be enthusiastic about new products. Before proceeding to the chapters on market analysis and strategy, operational issues and financial analysis, we will first consider the types of business structures available and the steps required to form a company. While this may appear to be putting the cart before the horse, the appropriate capital structure is a key decision, and takes time to implement. Formation of the company should be done in parallel with the preparation of the business plan and when completed will provide a useful bargaining tool when negotiating with investors.
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Choosing the appropriate structure In modern society, the public sector represents perhaps 40 per cent of a country’s gross national product. Besides acting as a major consumer of goods and services supplied by the private sector, the public sector interacts with the private sector by making laws and regulations. The legal environment in which a business operates may be divided into two broad categories. Statute laws are the laws made by the federal and state parliaments; common law represents the decisions made by judges and followed by others to the extent that they become generally accepted practice. While businesspeople cannot hope to become experts in commercial law, they need to develop a working knowledge of it. The more businesspeople know about the laws and regulations, the more effectively they can manage their businesses. Moreover, they can avoid the costs and time involved in legal action, which can cripple the operation of a business. Fortunately, many booklets and courses are now available for businesspeople to learn about the legal process without paying large fees. Under common law, of particular importance is the law of contract, especially with customers, suppliers and employees. Under statute law the most important Acts are the Income Tax Act, Trade Practices Act, the Intellectual Property Protection Acts (e.g. patents, copyright, designs, trademarks) and the Corporations Act. The national statute in company law,
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combined with the complementary state legislation and the ordinances of the relevant territories, is generally described as the Corporations Law. There are also the various Acts empowering government departments to apply regulations on the use of premises, hours of trading, safety and fire precautions, electrical installations, use of weights and measures, and so on. It is not the purpose of this book to provide an introduction to business law. On the other hand, there is one area of law where the entrepreneur and venture capitalist do interact—the ownership and control of business enterprises. A small business may operate in one of four ways, of which two need a separate legal entity. Figure 11.1 illustrates this. The sole trader is the simplest structure to set up and run. A sole trader is only suitable for a small business and not for an enterprise that intends to grow rapidly. Partnerships also do not involve a separate legal entity. A partnership is defined as a relationship between two or more persons carrying on a business with a common view to making profits. Partnerships can become large—for example, the bigger accounting and legal firms operating as partnerships in Australia employ up to 1000 people. Partnerships have one major drawback to investors, namely the joint and several unlimited liability of all partners for a firm’s debts and obligations. An investor who invests under the aegis of a partnership has an individual liability for the debts of the partnership and the actions of the other partners, and can be personally sued for the liability of the partnership. Litigants tend to sue the richest partner. Even if there is a formal partnership agreement, which restricts the number of partners able to incur
No separate entity
Figure 11.1
Separate entity
Sole trader
Trading trust
Partnership
Limited company
Business structures
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debts, it may be insufficient protection and if litigants are unaware of the restriction they may sue the other partners for recovery. The advantage to investors of a partnership is that they will be able to claim any losses made by the investment as a tax deduction by treating the loss as an expense against other forms of income. However, investment in a partnership will limit the potential for capital gains because of the small market for selling a share of a partnership. As indicated earlier, the object of the venture capital game is to accumulate wealth by capital gain; so a partnership structure is the wrong structure because it severely restricts the potential capital gain. It is also an unsound structure because investors will often invest on the basis of an expected income tax deduction during the start-up period. Thus the question becomes which of the two separate legal entities to choose: the trading trust or the limited company. While a book could be written on the pros and cons of either structure, tax considerations (ironically) affect the choice. The trading trust structure was the preferred option until the mid1980s. A typical trust structure is shown in Figure 11.2. A trading trust paid no income tax provided all the income passed to the beneficiaries. The beneficiaries would then pay income tax on any income received. The trustee company would operate on a nominal profit basis, covering expenses out
Founders hold shares in and are directors of
owns Trustee company
Assets of business
Figure 11.2
earn income
Trading trust
Trading trust structure
transmits income
Beneficiaries (founders)
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of the trust income, and have paid-up capital of $2. If the trust went into receivership, the creditors would have no recourse against the assets of the beneficiaries. The creditors would have recourse against the assets of the trust and could also move against the trustee. The action would generally gain $2. However, directors of a trustee company are jointly and severally liable for claims made by creditors if there are insufficient assets, unless the contracts between trustees and the creditor deliberately exclude the liability. The inclusion of such clauses makes it difficult to gain reasonable credit from suppliers. The company structure, illustrated by Figure 11.3, is simpler than the structure of the trading trust. Effectively, the founders subscribe for shares in a new legal entity and become directors of that company. The company is liable for any debts incurred and upon liquidation the shareholders’ maximum loss is their shareholding. Creditors do not have recourse to the personal assets of shareholders or directors unless they can establish either fraud or negligence. This concept of liability being limited to the subscriptions of shareholders originated in England during the eighteenth century and was a primary reason for the entrepreneurial explosion which occurred during the Victorian era. Until recently the problem of double taxation negated the benefit of limited liability. Companies paid a tax on profits,
Shareholders
appoint
manage
invest in Company owns Assets
Figure 11.3
Directors
Company structure
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company tax, at a rate of between 40 and 50 per cent. What remained could then be either retained in the company or distributed as dividends. The recipient of the dividends then paid tax at their marginal rate of taxation. Private unlisted companies faced a further complication, in that if they retained profits above a certain level (even for the justifiable reasons of funding further expansion) they had to pay an additional undistributed profits tax. It would be difficult to devise a taxation regime more likely to inhibit economic growth. Either population growth or increases in productivity endogenously generate economic growth. One cause of productivity growth is the technological innovation developed and introduced into the economy by new companies. If the taxation environment restricts new companies from adopting new technologies the economy will grow at a correspondingly slower rate. The introduction of dividend imputation and the taxation of profits made by public trading trusts at corporate rates has now significantly reversed the anti-company bias of the taxation system. With these legislative changes corporate profits are now effectively taxed only once. Dividends received by shareholders on which Australian company tax has been levied are known as franked dividends. Shareholders, who receive franked dividends and whose marginal tax rate is the same as the company tax rate, do not pay any further tax on the franked portion. Indeed, those shareholders whose marginal rate of taxation is below the corporate tax rate will receive a tax credit. However, there are several other taxation benefits that accrue only to companies. One is the 125 per cent research and development tax deduction (see Table 11.1). Under present legislation, R&D expenditure that normally may be charged against income only as a normal expense, may for tax calculations be charged at 125 per cent. This can increase post-tax profits. In addition to the 125 per cent tax deduction, the federal government announced further significant changes in January 2001. In particular, for small companies (defined as having less
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Table 11.1
The 125 per cent R&D tax deduction
Normal deduction
125% deduction
Sales Other expenses R&D
100 80 10
Profit before tax Tax Profit after tax
10 3 7
Sales Other expenses R&D 125% adjustment Taxable profit Tax Profit after tax
100 80 10 2.5 7.5 2.25 7.75
Note: the profit after tax increases by 11 per cent
than $5 million turnover and spending less than $1 million on R&D and thus unlikely to be able to use a tax deduction) there is a cash rebate of 37.5 cents in the dollar. There is also a 175 per cent premium deduction for additional R&D above the average R&D intensity for the past three years. ‘Intensity’ is defined as R&D as a percentage of sales. The deduction only applies to labour-related R&D. On the other hand, the 175 per cent premium R&D and cash-back concessions are not mutually exclusive. A third advantage for small companies is the capital gains tax relief that occurs for owners on the sale of their business before retiring. The guidelines in this area are constantly being changed and professional advice must be taken, but given proper structuring the tax relief is significant. Finally, taxing public trading trusts has now removed their prime reason for existence. If the goal of the venture capital game is to publicly list, then the trading trust has become the wrong structure.
SETTING UP A COMPANY The current taxation environment now firmly supports setting up a company. The questions then become how, and what type? Effectively there are two types of companies: first, proprietary companies, which cannot offer their shares to the public, and second, public companies, which may sell their shares to the
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public. Proprietary companies require a minimum of one shareholder and director and allow up to a maximum of 50 shareholders. Public companies require a minimum of five shareholders, three directors and a company secretary, and have no upper limit on the number of shareholders. While all listed companies are public companies, a public company is not necessarily listed. As stated before, the objective of the venture capital game should be to create a listed company. While it is possible to later convert a private company to a public company, entrepreneurs who wish to play the venture capital game should start with a public company. The administration is perhaps more onerous and name changes take longer to execute (which is one reason for starting on the task earlier rather than later), but the later savings are immeasurable. To convert a private company to a public company requires changes to the constitution, which in turn requires shareholders’ meetings. If you have already managed to attract several venture capitalists, they will all hire their legal firms to analyse the changes—at your cost. Incorporating these changes earlier avoids costs and delays. The basic document that details the way a company operates is called the company constitution. The constitution defines the capital structure. As there is now no minimum size parvalue share, the company should issue, say, a million shares at, say, $0.001 per share, or $1000 worth. In addition, the company will also almost certainly be issuing redeemable preference shares, so it is advisable to set up, say, ten classes of redeemable preference shares defined as ‘A’, ‘B’, ‘C’ class, and so on. The constitution is important and needs close scrutiny. It should allow rapid calling of shareholders’ and directors’ meetings; implementing share issues, transfers and sales by ordinary resolutions; and allow the use of modern methods of communication. The simplest way to set up a public company is to buy one ‘off the shelf’. Most of the larger legal firms located in the city will have a shelf company available for a cost of around $1000.
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Once you have set up or purchased your company, several key issues must be addressed, namely: • • •
how much share capital should be subscribed; the appointment of directors; the appointment of a company secretary.
The issue of initial share capital is important because it gives a clear signal to investors of how much you as an entrepreneur are willing to risk. It is possible to set up a public company with five shares of $0.20 each or an issued capital of $1. Many companies have an issued capital of $2, being two $1 shares. Thus one way of distinguishing your balance sheet from those of other companies is to subscribe capital. If you go to an investor with a balance sheet that contains, say, $20 000 of subscribed share capital, he or she will treat it far more seriously than a proposal based on a company with $2 of issued capital. It is very important when forming a company that the shareholders have similar goals. A classic problem is two partners forming a company on a 50/50 shareholding. The company is successful. One partner wants to reinvest profits and go for growth. The other, happy with his lot, wants to take dividends. Conflict arises and with a 50/50 shareholding the debate can become acrimonious and often may finish in court. As a precaution there should be a shareholders’ agreement in place or, embedded in the constitution, a mechanism for the company to buy back shares. An even worse situation is when three people form a company with equal shareholdings and each is a director. Over time one person becomes the de facto CEO by effort and force of personality. However, on major strategic issues such as the re-investment of profits for growth, the CEO can now be outvoted 2:1. One company that we saw at Nanyang had been formed when six former employees had got together— the CEO had only 16.7 per cent of the shareholding and the board had all six employees as directors. It took some doing,
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but before Nanyang invested four of the directors were removed and a buy-back clause inserted in the shareholders’ agreement. The choice of directors is important because it provides entrepreneurs with one of their few opportunities to independently test their business plan and gain credibility for their proposal. Promoters of public companies are aware of the importance of a reputable board and spend much time in choosing the appropriate independent directors. For entrepreneurs the same opportunities are available. An important initial task of the entrepreneur is to recruit a chairperson who is independent, commercially experienced and who will provide credibility. The chairperson should provide independent questioning and advice, and not be merely a supporter, as this will dissipate the motivation and enthusiasm so necessary in a business start-up. The other key appointment is the company secretary. In time this should be an employee of the company but at the beginning one possibility might be to use a lawyer as a trade-off for a directorship. As this chapter points out, the law plays a large part in the operation of a company. The person charged with the responsibility of ensuring the company is meeting its legal requirements is the company secretary. Unfortunately this role is often underestimated. Before investing, venture capitalists will require the company to be in complete compliance with the Corporations Code. Among the areas they will scrutinise are: • • • •
filings with the Australian Securities Commission; issuing of shares and the share register; quality of the minutes of shareholders’ meetings and board reports; quality and timeliness of the seal register.
The company secretary, besides ensuring the company is meeting its legal requirements, also plays an important role when disagreements occur among founders and investors. The company secretary controls the timing, calling and recording
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of various board and shareholder meetings. Another advantage of the company structure is that when things go amiss there is a considerable body of statute and common law to protect the rights of shareholders.
CONCLUSION This chapter recommends entrepreneurs adopt the public company structure as preparation for public listing. The ultimate financial benefits outweigh the administrative costs. Although the company structure restricts the entrepreneurs’ freedom compared with a partnership, they will usually appoint themselves the directors of the company. The company constitution lists the directors’ powers. However, legislation requires that shareholders meet at regular intervals and for certain decisions, such as appointing directors and setting directors’ fees. The law also places quite onerous duties on the directors to act for the benefit of the company. They have a general responsibility to avoid conflicts of interest and must declare personal interests in transactions that might involve the company. Directors must also certify that the company keeps proper accounting records. At the beginning it is usually necessary to hire an outside accountant but the task should became an internal function as soon as possible. Creditors do not have recourse to directors for debt. However, the law states that directors are personally liable and subject to criminal penalty where they allow the company to incur debts of which repayment is unlikely. Lending institutions will frequently require directors’ personal guarantees before lending to the company. Introducing substantial equity into the company is a method of removing the need for these guarantees. Forming a public company is a key task in raising equity. Another key task is preparing a business plan. The next three chapters deal with this task.
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Preparing a business plan—market analysis and market strategy The March 1887 edition of the Scientific American contained the following passage: Inventors often complain of the difficulty experienced in inducing capitalists to join them in their enterprises. Not infrequently the blame rests as much with the inventor as with the man of money. The capitalist is often blamed for not seeing into the advantages of an enterprise, when the fact is it has never been presented to him in the right light. Every man, therefore, who would seek the aid of capital in furthering his plans for introducing an invention should first be prepared to show the whole state of the art covered by such an invention, and wherein the improvement lies. Second, he should, if possible, show what particular market needs to be supplied with such improvements, and something approximating to the returns which reasonably may be expected. Third, he should have some well-settled plan of introducing the new product or furthering the new scheme. If his invention is worth pushing, in nine cases out of ten there will be little trouble in procuring financial help if the proper methods be employed.
It is doubtful if any better advice on how to prepare a business plan has since been given. A key to the successful business plan is separating the market analysis from the market strategy. In Chapter 2 we demonstrated the technique of analysing a market. We analysed the demand for the product and then we
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analysed the supply—separately. These techniques for analysing a market may also be applied to the business plan; instead of screening we use the techniques to develop a strategy. If the results of the screening are positive then the market analysis section of a business plan will contain answers to the questions posed in Chapter 2. In this chapter we will first discuss several extra techniques for market analysis.
MARKET ANALYSIS The two techniques that should be included in any business plan are customer decision analysis and competitive analysis. A fundamental question for any business is deciding who really is the customer for the product. Customer decision analysis consists of establishing the purchase dynamics of the product. These are the answers to the famous questions posed by Rudyard Kipling: Six true and faithful friends have I; What, Where, How, When, Who and Why?
In other words, entrepreneurs find the answers to the following questions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
Who will make the decision to purchase? What are the decision criteria? Where is the product bought? How is the product bought? When is the product bought? Why is the product bought?
Entrepreneurs may establish the answers in two ways—by using the imagination or by going into the field, arranging meetings with ten to twenty potential buyers and asking them the questions listed above. The latter course is preferable as it provides some tangible data. It may also provide some prospects for the
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product. Furthermore, entrepreneurs can also gather data about the competition that will help them prepare a formal competitive analysis. Successful entrepreneurs are aware of their need to stay in touch with the market. They know the best way is to meet faceto-face with prospective and actual customers. Even in the largest companies, the successful executives are the ones who get into the offices of their customers. What applies to successful entrepreneurs applies even more to potential entrepreneurs. They must go into the field early and talk about the product to prospective customers. After each meeting with a customer the first task is to write up notes. If possible you should tape-record the meeting. It has long been known that researchers unconsciously seek out data and information that support their hypotheses. Consequently, good scientists try to set up experiments to disprove a favourite theory. Entrepreneurs must approach market research the same way. They must be careful not just to seek information in support of a new product and reject information that indicates possible failure. When interviewing prospective customers, entrepreneurs need to be careful. Their passion for a product will often blind them to any negative reaction from the market. They must provide a calmly optimistic description which allows the prospect to react. If the prospect’s reaction is not enthusiastic within five to ten minutes, there is cause for concern. In the last 50 years we have seen many new products introduced: colour television, videocassette recorders, personal computers, compact discs, mobile telephones and so on. The market response has been enthusiastic and immediate. I have also been associated with the launch of several product successes and even more product failures. The successes did not take long to build up momentum. Word of mouth seemed to ensure their success or failure. The data collected from the field should be written up and summarised. The summary should be part of the business plan. The individual reports of the meetings should be kept in a
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separate file and handed over only if requested. On the other hand, if entrepreneurs do obtain an enthusiastic response from prospective customers they should seek to crystallise the enthusiasm with a formal endorsement on company notepaper. Such endorsements are most valuable and are among the most useful documents start-up entrepreneurs can provide as part of a business plan. Besides customers there are many other people who can provide useful information about a market and how it operates. As mentioned earlier, I have found the most useful to be: • • • • •
ex-executives in the industry; editors of trade journals; advertising agencies which have run campaigns for the product; government advisory bodies for the industry; university professors.
Many of these people will have presented papers or done interviews that are now held on the Internet. Another important technique is competitive analysis. All businesses face competition—even government monopolies. A distinguishing characteristic of successful businesspeople is their realistic appraisal of their competitive strengths and weaknesses and the development of a competitive strategy. While there are many different ways of analysing competition, a method that I have found both easy and effective is illustrated in Figure 12.1—simply fill in the required information. There are several sources that can be used to complete the chart. Facts on the individual companies can be obtained from the Australian Securities Commission or credit agencies such as Dun & Bradstreet. Product brochures and newspaper searches are another source of information. In the majority of Australian business plans, little if any attention is paid to the competition. Omitting any reference to the competition probably does more to damage the credibility of a business plan than any other action. Including a short, realistic
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Name of competitor
Estimated market share
Estimated yearly sales
Pricing policy
Advertising/promotion strategy
Distribution policy
Service
Selling force
Major strength
Major weakness
Position in product life cycle
Figure 12.1
Competitive analysis
analysis and then using the analysis to develop a competitive business strategy provides a good indication of management capabilities. While the chart begins with some suggested quantitative information, it is not necessary to be precise. Big organisations in stagnant markets may spend hundreds of thousands of dollars establishing market share to 0.1 per cent; such research is a luxury unavailable to the small and growing company.
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Far more important is to establish a qualitative feel for the market and the competition. What entrepreneurs need to do is establish the pricing, promotional and distribution strategies of the competition and then try to identify their various market positions. Deciding on a positioning strategy is the first and most important step in developing a marketing strategy. Positioning refers to where a company places itself along certain axes by which it defines the market. Occasionally a new product may be introduced to the market and incorporated in its positioning strategy will be a new dimension on which the competition will be positioned. A good example of this is the car industry. At one time Ford dominated the motor industry with a market share of more than 80 per cent. General Motors, under the new leadership of Arthur Sloane, then developed a new positioning strategy introducing driver status. Against each of the models in the Ford range, General Motors positioned a slightly more expensive car fitted with some extra options to increase the status of the model. The strategy worked very successfully, and General Motors became the market leader. In the 1970s, as rising oil prices forced consumers to reconsider cost, the Japanese introduced the new dimension of value-formoney. In a similar way, Volvo created a new dimension of safety and positioned itself at the top end. Once the positioning strategy is established, the other components of a competitive marketing strategy, namely pricing, distribution, promotion and packaging, follow.
MARKETING STRATEGY There are three basic marketing strategies that a company may adopt: 1 2 3
be the low-cost supplier; develop a unique selling proposition (USP); focus on a market segment.
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The lowest-cost supplier is a market position available to only a few companies. If a company is the low-cost supplier to an industry it then has a strong, sustainable, competitive advantage. Typically, the cost advantage comes from economies of scale. Economies of scale refer to the ability of a large-scale manufacturer, particularly if it has considerable investment in capital equipment, to produce goods at a lower unit cost than the small manufacturer. Examples in Australia are brewing, aluminium and electricity production. For a small, growing company, competitive advantage created by economies of scale is unlikely. However, there is a competitive advantage that can be derived from being first in an industry; it is known as riding the learning curve. The learning curve refers to a discovery made in the aircraft industry during the 1950s. The cost accountants noted as a general rule of thumb that for each doubling of the production run, the average unit cost of production over the total run fell by 20 per cent. Figure 12.2 shows the learning curve effect for a hypothetical product with an initial unit cost of $100. After about 4096 items are produced the average cost of production has dropped to around $10 and the marginal cost (the actual cost to produce the 4097th item) is even lower. The learning curve has been shown to operate across a wide range of industries. The best known is the semiconductor industry. A company launches a new design that becomes popular and then rides down the learning curve ahead of the competition. Developing a technically based USP is probably the most useful marketing strategy of the high-tech business. If by research and development a company can provide a new product in the marketplace with a genuine use then it can acquire a large market. Examples in Australia of such development are rare. One is the titanium pacemaker developed by Nucleus, but more prosaic examples include the Monier roof tile and the Westfield shopping centre. A USP need not just be a technical advantage; company positioning may also generate
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Average cost of producton ($)
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100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1
2
4
8
16
32
64
128 256 512 1024 2048 4096
Number of items produced
Figure 12.2
The learning curve
market leadership. One famous technique is to choose an unusual colour—Farley Lewis distinguished its concrete from other concrete by painting its trucks pink. The final strategy is to focus on a market segment. By simply generating a new variable or concentrating on a particular segment of the market a company can gradually establish a market position. The retail market abounds with examples of market niches developed by a focused marketing strategy. McDonald’s, Just Jeans and Knitwit are all examples of organisations whose initial marketing strategy was to focus on a product or a particular segment of a market.
PRICING After the positioning and marketing strategy, the next key decision is pricing. Pricing separates the successful businesses from the failures. The secret to pricing is to first analyse the competition and establish the range of prices from lowest to highest. Pricing then becomes a question of solving the equation:
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Price (new product or service) = Price (lowest of competition) + F (price range)
Table 12.1
Pricing a new product
Fuel economy Safety 4 doors Power steering Automatic Power windows Total
Ranking
Maximum score
10 9 8 6 4 2
10 10 10 10 10 10 390
Product score 5 6 0 10 3 0
Weight 50 54 0 60 12 0 176
The value of the factor F can be estimated in a number of ways but the simplest method is to list, rank and weight all the features in the marketplace and then score your product on a range of one to ten. F is then the weighted average mean of the various features expressed as a percentage. For example, let us assume that you wish to introduce a new car to the family market. You might rank the features as illustrated in the first column of Table 12.1. You would then score your product against the competition as in the third column. The weight in the fourth column is the product of the first and third columns. Here, F = (176/390) = 45 per cent. Pricing in this fashion could justly be regarded as an artificial calculation. On the other hand, it introduces systematic analysis into the pricing calculation. Pricing policy should also address: • • • •
add-ons up-rates discounts rent rolls.
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Add-ons refer to supplementary charges that can be justifiably added on without causing grief or embarrassment. Add-on charges are an economical way of adding to profit. Companies that have been in existence for a long time have generally developed several add-on charges. A good example would be the supplementary charges banks add on to a loan besides the standard interest charge. These charges can add substantially to the total interest bill. As you are intending to establish a company that will be in existence for some time, developing a range of add-on charges is excellent policy. Up-rating refers to the method by which the pricing schedule is changed to reflect inflation, changes in costs, discounting by competitors, and so on. Pricing is probably the most important marketing factor after positioning but usually receives insufficient attention. One of the best lessons I ever learned about business concerned a division of a large freightforwarding multinational which had just slipped into loss-making. It was decided to hold a management conference to agree on remedial policies to restore profits. The managers gave their individual presentations on how this could be done. The state managers wanted money for more salespeople, the marketing manager wanted more money for promotion, the operations manager wanted new trucks, the administration manager wanted a new computer, and so on. After about six hours the managing director of the company, who is one of Australia’s most successful businesspeople, stood up, after having said nothing all day. He turned to the general manager, asked how much freight was carried a week, and received the answer, ‘4000 tonnes’. He then looked at the budget and said that the weekly budgeted profit shortfall was $8000. He suggested adding-on $2 per tonne to the price and walked out. The decision was implemented and profits were restored. What the MD knew was that while the price sensitivity of new customers is high, once a prospect is a regular customer, price sensitivity lessens. Successful businesspeople adjust their price schedules accordingly. The other key aspect of pricing is discounting. In the
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computer industry it is said, ‘You do not have your first site until you have your first sale; but you cannot get your first sale till you have your first site.’ This maxim refers to the need for a reference or demonstration site for capital goods or service marketing. A common strategy for many companies is to set up and staff a demonstration site. This is a mistake. Big companies can afford high marketing costs; small, growing companies cannot. What the small company must do is discount. It is important that the discount is understood to be a one-off, special, never-to-be-repeated offer. Entrepreneurs must gain from their initial clients as many non-financial benefits as possible, particularly reference visits. To quote the example of the freight-forwarding division again, when the company opened a new route it would discount to marginal cost and load up the first truck with new business. It would then start to up-rate and replace any lost business with new business at the new up-rated price. The salespeople would no longer focus on discounts but on service, reliability and satisfied customers. When the first truck was earning adequate profits a new truck would be introduced and the process repeated. The final aspect of pricing policy is establishing a rent roll. What entrepreneurs want is for the business to make money while they sleep. They want to establish a steady cash flow rather than rely on one-off sales. Consumer items that wear out, such as razor blades and ballpoint pens (53 million ballpoint pens are sold in Australia each year!), maintenance contracts and management fees are all examples of steady cash flow. Warehouse pallets provide a good example of an average business converted into spectacular returns by introducing a weekly hiring policy. It is even better if the regular income is linked to the consumer price index (CPI). A good example is maintenance contracts for computer equipment, which start as an annual charge of 10–20 per cent of the purchase price and rise with the CPI. Over a five-year period the client usually pays more for maintenance than the initial purchase price.
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PACKAGING Packaging is becoming an increasingly important part of the marketing mix. As the cost of sales staff and media advertising continues to rise, and the retailing and wholesaling industries continue to move to self-service supermarkets, packaging is becoming the silent salesperson. Packaging is the last part of the marketing mix a prospect sees before he or she makes a purchase decision. Industries such as alcohol and tobacco, which have government restrictions on advertising, are spending increasing amounts on packaging. Industrial products are also making increasing use of sophisticated design and packaging concepts. An example familiar to many people is the gradual increase in quality of the manuals for computer software. In the beginning the manuals were often photocopies stapled together. Now they are sophisticated works of publishing which may cost over $100 000 to write and produce. Re-packaging or a packaging difference may create a USP for a product which can often result in a telling competitive advantage. DBase was the first top-selling database package for personal computers. It achieved its dominant position by innovative packaging. The package sold in a shrink-sealed wrapper with a sample system on a separate disk. Prospective users, on payment of the package price, were given both the sample disk and the system disk with the guarantee that if the system disk was returned with the seal unbroken they would receive their money back. The manufacturer removed the risk of purchase with a simply administered system. The cost of the sample floppy disk, which the customer kept, was easily outweighed by the interest earned on the early receipt of cash. Packaging is also important when considering export markets. To achieve the necessary size and profits for a public flotation it is usually necessary for Australian companies to have an export strategy. Cultural differences can spring some nasty surprises. Asians consider reds and yellows to be colours of quality while Anglo-Saxons consider them tawdry. Southern Europeans like serif typefaces while northern Europeans prefer Helvetica.
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While some brands have created a global image, such as the Coke bottle and the McDonald’s golden arches, other companies market differentiated products. In the USA, Campbell’s soups have a famous red and white label, immortalised by the pop artist Andy Warhol, but in the UK Campbell’s has positioned its products with a variety of labels.
EXPORTS As indicated above, a necessary requirement for building an Australian public company may be to develop an export strategy. One obvious target is the USA, with its population of 280 million and a gross national product about twenty times that of Australia’s, similar language and customs, and plenty of market research supplied by USA television and products. However, there are differences, particularly in the banking, legal and industrial relations systems. The USA is a fragmented market and should be regarded as 100 cities equivalent in size to Sydney or Melbourne. Each area requires a tailored approach, as the variations can be startling. Two marketing strategies are available: either buy a company or start up an office from scratch. The first strategy, while probably the most cost-effective, entails risks. A famous example is HC Sleigh, which paid $20 million for 50 per cent of a US coal trading company, AOV. A few months later AOV went into receivership. The concern about the effect on HC Sleigh’s profits depressed its share price and it was taken over. Private companies are difficult to audit and analyse. The fragmented banking system in the USA makes credit analysis more difficult, compounding the problem. Thus the second alternative, of setting up your own office, is probably preferable for many small companies. The question then becomes whether you use an American or an Australian to head the operation. Again opinions vary, but limited experience suggests it is better to use someone familiar with the company and the product to start up operations. There are of course excellent entrepreneurs and managers in the USA. The
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problem is that they are almost impossible to recruit and it is more likely that the Australian company will end up with a second-rate operator. Television and tourism have helped us all feel far more comfortable dealing with overseas businesspeople. Indeed, while it would be a mistake to promote aggressively the Australian characteristics of the business it can certainly help to create corporate differentiation. Also, a visit to Australia by prospective customers can be a very effective sales weapon. The cost and time to enter the USA should not be underestimated. A US office will require at least $1 million start-up funding and take at least twelve months to generate sales. The other export markets that are becoming popular are the Asian markets. The cost of start-up here can be considerably lower than in the USA. As a general rule, if the dominant language is English (such as in Singapore) you can set up a greenfields operation. On the other hand, for non-Englishspeaking cultures such as Thailand it is far safer to set up a joint venture with a local partner. Many companies have found that rather than the USA or Asia, Europe has been a more favourable export market to consider. The USA is fiercely competitive but generally not tainted by corruption. Asia is competitive and suffers from corruption. Europe is not corrupt and not so competitive. Costs are higher but countries such as Eire offer significant concessions. If there are two observations to make, the first is to go where the customers are. It is far better to build a website with suitable meta-tags and generate interest in that way. Perhaps the most effective use of the export marketing dollar is to use trade shows. Austrade regularly runs collective tradeshows to various regions and they can be an excellent initial marketing effort. The second observation to make is not to under-estimate the time taken to build and maintain a distribution network. A business plan that contains statements such as ‘we will create a 20-country distribution network in two years’ demonstrates to the reader that the author has never built a distribution network in his life. Distribution networks take time and effort
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to set up. You need to do extensive reference checking. Once you have signed up a distributor network you then need to service it. Pareto’s 80/20 law will hold—not only will 20 per cent of your distributors generate 80 per cent of your revenue, but 20 per cent of your distributors will leave each year and need to be replaced.
PROMOTION AND ADVERTISING For a new Australian consumer product a major problem is the concentration of buying power in the retail industry. The emergence of buying chains has made new product introduction more difficult. Typically, in the grocery trade new products are given only twelve weeks to prove themselves. Also, the retail chains have introduced a new-line fee to cover the introduction of new products. A common charge would be $250 000. In addition, at least $500 000 is probably required for the advertising launch. At least $750 000 and nearer to $1 million is probably the minimum marketing funding required to launch a new consumer product. Hershey, a US company with an excellent reputation, tried to launch its chocolate products in Australia and spent $500 000 on advertising. The competitive advertising budgets were estimated to be $6 million for Cadburys and $5 million for Mars and Rowntree Hoadley. The launch failed and retailers later said Hershey should have spent at least $3 million on advertising. These figures, combined with the knowledge that over 90 per cent of new consumer products wither and die within eighteen months, help explain why venture capitalists often reject investment proposals based on consumer products. On the other hand, consumer products that have a self-financing form of distribution are attractive. Direct mail is one approach, franchising is another. Franchising has been a popular form of investment in the USA, representing about 10 per cent of venture capital. The size of the market in the USA means sufficient branches can be established to require only a small royalty to cover central office overheads. In Australia the
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market is smaller so creating an adequately sized network is more difficult. The product must have sufficient gross margin to provide satisfactory profits for both the franchiser and franchisee. Only a few products, such as pizza and tax planning, have sufficient gross margins. Otherwise, franchisers must obtain their returns from either supply of the ingredients (Bakers Delight) or asset growth by leasing the premises (McDonald’s). The high risk and entry cost of consumer products result in most venture capitalists preferring industrial products, which can also be sold to government entities when they have established credibility in the marketplace.
THE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE It is important to recognise that every market contains potential purchasers as well as actual purchasers, and that at the time a new product or service is launched practically the whole of the market represents ‘potential’. Converting potential purchasers into actual purchasers takes time; it will often take between five and twenty years before 90 per cent of the members of a particular group of people have adopted a new product. Within an established market, a new product will take a similar length of time to become generally recognised as a practical and efficient alternative to the established products. Over such a long period the market itself changes: some people die, or become too old to participate in the market, or migrate away from the market. At the same time, immigration and children growing up will increase the market size. Some people may become too poor to buy the products while others may reach a sufficient level of affluence to enter the market. A decision to enter a market for the first time, or to change to a new product, will often be sufficiently significant to require considerable investigation and management resources. Inexperienced start-up entrepreneurs are hurt and bewildered to learn that their potential customers continue to buy old and inferior products. If they study those customers closely, they
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will find that they are ordinary people with many other demands on their time. Investigating a new product or service may be fairly low on their priority list. For most markets that have been studied, no more than 5 per cent, and often less than 1 per cent, of the potential purchasers targeted by advertising, point of sale and other promotional material, and sales ‘cold calls’, actually enter a new market or buy a new product in the year following the product’s launch. Most people do not have the time to make a careful personal investigation of a new market or a new product, and they do so vicariously. When a trusted friend or colleague has used a new product, and praises it, people who have not personally examined it in detail will become significantly more likely to buy it for themselves or their business. This ‘internal growth’ among users of a new product can amount to between 25 and 75 per cent of the growth in demand for a new product. It tapers off as the number of actual users rises and the number of potential ones falls. The combined effect of a few of the potential users responding to the marketing effort while many more respond to the influence of those who have already joined the market, gives the product life cycle its characteristic shape (Figure 12.3). These facts must be taken into account when estimating sales in future years, and particularly when estimating the time it will take for a new venture to break even. Under some circumstances, a venture must be re-planned at this point—
% saturation
100 80 60 40 20 0
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Figure 12.3
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8 Years
The product life cycle
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if not cancelled. If, for example, a new product is unlikely to get more than a 15 per cent market share, and needs a market share of 12 per cent to break even, it probably never will. Figure 12.3 shows a product (or market) life cycle for a fairly attractive product (such as a VCR). Note that although 97 per cent of the potential purchasers will be using the product fifteen years after its launch, in the first year less than 1 per cent of the potential users adopt the product and enter the actual market. The model used to produce Figure 12.3 is very basic, and more sophisticated models take into account factors like the entry of competitors and life cycle price changes. The effort required to develop a life cycle model is usually amply repaid.
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13
Preparing a business plan—the financial analysis In this chapter we examine the techniques of financial analysis which demonstrate to potential investors that the entrepreneur understands the business. When they describe their business finances many company annual reports and many businesspeople do so with a pie chart, similar to Figure 13.1. The chart demonstrates how much of every sales dollar the company must pay for labour and materials, interest payments and taxes. Usually the chairperson’s report contains some comment about how little is left for dividends and retained earnings. Unfortunately the diagram is misleading. It implies that in every dollar of sales there is an element of profit. The pie chart illustrates the misconception that the basic equation of business is the same as the profit and loss statement: Sales – Costs = Profit.
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS Break-even analysis uses a different and more realistic approach. Every business has two types of costs. Fixed costs are those costs that must be paid irrespective of sales. Examples are rent, utilities, management salaries and so on. No profit can be earned unless the fixed costs are covered. Variable costs refer to those costs that vary according to sales. Examples are raw materials, manufacturing labour costs,
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Dividends 4%
Retained earnings 4%
Material costs 24%
Labour costs 40%
Interest 6%
Other costs 18%
Figure 13.1
Corporate tax 4%
Typical division of the sales dollar
transport and warranty provisions. The actual business equation is as follows: Sales – Variable costs = Contribution Contribution – Fixed Costs = Profit The equation is often portrayed in chart form as shown in Figure 13.2. As the sales increase so the profit increases, as indicated by the rising profit line. The angle of the profit line depends on the contribution. The greater the contribution per dollar of sales the steeper the gradient of the profit line. If sales are zero, the loss is equal to the fixed costs or where the profit line cuts the Y-axis. If there are sufficient sales that the contribution equals the fixed costs, the business is at break-even (the profit is zero) and the break-even point is where the profit line cuts the X-axis. The first step in break-even analysis is to calculate the contribution rate. This is usually expressed as a percentage and defined as follows:
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(Sales – Variable Costs) / Sales = Contribution rate
Profit 30 20 10 0
20
40
60
-10
80
100 Sales
-20 -30
Figure 13.2
Typical break-even chart
The gross margin (sales less cost of goods sold) is often taken as a surrogate for contribution. The approximation assumes identical stock levels at the beginning and end of the accounting year. The break-even point is then calculated by dividing the fixed costs by the contribution rate. The break-even point may be expressed as a sales figure (‘We need $30 000 sales a month to break even’). If the business is dominated by a single product or has a standard measure of volume, the break-even point can be expressed in physical terms (‘We need to carry 5000 passengers a day’). A simple business may sell $50 000 worth of product a month, have a cost of goods sold of $30 000 and show a profit before tax of $4000. What is its break-even point?
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Sales Variable costs Contribution Fixed costs Profit Contribution rate
$50 000 – $30 000 = $20 000 – $16 000 = $ 4 000 $20 000 = 40% 50 000 Break-even point = Fixed costs = 16 000 = $40 000 Contribution rate 40% Break-even analysis can be used to predict profits. What would be the profitability at $60 000 sales per month? Using the equation below provides the solution: Profit = (Sales – Break-even point) × Contribution rate = (60 000 – 40 000) × 40% = $8 000 Increasing sales by 20 per cent doubles the profits of the business. Break-even analysis is a fundamental tool of successful entrepreneurs. They should calculate it every accounting period. Every business has a different break-even chart. As shown in Profit
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
0
Figure 13.3
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100 Sales
Manufacturing company break-even chart
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Profit 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
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100 Sales
-30
Figure 13.4
Retail company break-even chart
Figures 13.3 and 13.4, manufacturing companies typically have high fixed costs and high contribution rates while retail organisations have low fixed costs and low contribution rates. Besides providing a tool for predicting profits at different levels of sales and understanding the dynamics of a business, break-even analysis can be a useful tool when deciding on business strategy. Increasing sales volumes, reducing fixed costs or increasing the contribution rate can increase profits. If each variable can be altered by 10 per cent with equivalent effort, then the calculations for one business would be as shown in Table 13.1. Readers should repeat the four calculations themselves to ensure they understand break-even points. In this simple example, the strategy of either increasing sales (by a new advertising campaign, say) or increasing the contribution rate (by changing transport companies, for example) would be equally profitable. While the example above is simple, calculating the effect of cost reductions on the breakeven point is usually illuminating. The contribution rate can be increased in three ways: 1 2
increasing selling prices, which is probably the most common technique; changing the product mix to increase the total contribution rate by replacing low-margin products with higher-margin products;
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Table 13.1 Break-even variations Base case Sales Variable costs Contribution Fixed costs Profit before tax Contribution rate Break-even point
3
$50 000 $30 000 $20 000 $16 000 $4 000 40% $40 000
10% increase 10% decrease 10% increase in sales in fixed costs in contribution $55 000 $33 000 $22 000 $16 000 $6 000 40% $40 000
$50 000 $30 000 $20 000 $14 000 $5 600 40% $36 000
$50 000 $28 000 $22 000 $16 000 $6 000 44% $36 364
decreasing variable costs by switching suppliers or introducing labour-saving equipment.
SELF-FINANCING GROWTH RATE Another key number for the entrepreneur to calculate and understand is the self-financing growth rate (SFG). This is the maximum rate at which a company can grow using its internally generated cash resources. Traditionally entrepreneurs underestimate the working capital required to fund their businesses. Calculating the SFG is a good way of understanding the working capital needs for a business. The calculation requires four steps: 1 2 3 4
First work out the operating cash cycle (OCC) for the business. Establish the cash tied up ($T) in each OCC, in the form of both working capital and operating expenses. Work out the cash generated ($G) for each OCC. Then work out the SFG by the following formula: SFG = ($G/$T) × (365/OCC)
The OCC is best understood by considering Figure 13.5. In this simple example, a distributor purchases stock which is held and then sold. Its variable costs are the costs of purchasing
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Operating cash cycle
Days of accounts receivable
Days of holding inventory
Days of accounts payable
Inventory received
Figure 13.5
Payment for inventory
Duration cash is tied up Cost of sales cycle
Goods sold
Payment received
The operating cash cycle
stock while its fixed costs are its operating expenses (rent, labour etc.) To the distributor the variable costs are equivalent to Costs of Goods Sold (COGS). COGS is an accounting term and is defined as opening stock plus cost of purchases over the period less closing stock. In this simple example we assume stock levels are the same at the beginning and the end, so COGS will be equal to cost of purchases. The business consumes cash in two ways. First there is the cash consumed in working capital. The business must fund the purchase of the goods, the time the goods are held in inventory, and then the time between the invoice and eventual payment by a customer. Secondly there is the cash consumed in paying the operating expenses of the company. Cash tied up in inventory is calculated in COGS days (COGS/365) while cash tied up in accounts receivable is calculated in sales days (Sales/365). The sum (in days) is the OCC. The duration that
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cash is tied up is reduced by the Accounts Payable, again calculated in COGS days. This is known as the Cost of Sales (COS) cycle. Let us take a simple example. The operating cash cycle is 150 days and the cost of sales is 120 days. In this example we assume that operating expenses are paid over half the operating cash cycle. Duration cash is tied up (in days) Accounts receivable Inventory Operating cash cycle (OCC) Accounts payable Cost of sales Operating expenses
70 80 150 30 120 75
The simple income statement is shown below. COGS is 60 cents in the dollar while operating expenses are 35 cents. Cash generated on each dollar of sales is the profit of 5 cents. For simplification we are omitting tax, fixed assets and depreciation. Income statement Sales Cost of goods sold Operating expenses Total costs Profit (cash)
$ $ $ $ $
1.000 0.600 0.350 0.950 0.050
The cash tied up in each sales dollar is calculated thus: Amount of cash tied up per sales dollar Cost of sales $ 0.600 × 120 / 150 or 0.800 = $ 0.480 Operations $ 0.350 × 175 / 150 or 0.500 = $ 0.175 Cash required for each OCC $ 0.655 Cash generated per sales dollar $ 0.050 To calculate the SFG there are two parts. First we calculate the SFG for one OCC and then we multiply that by the number of
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OCCs in one year. The product generated is the annual SFG rate. SFG rate calculations OCC SFG rate $ 0.050 / $0.655 =117.63% OCCs per year 365 / 150 = 2.433 Annual SFG rate 7.63% × 2.433 =118.58% This company thus has a self-financing growth rate of 18.58 per cent. To grow faster it will need some form of financial injection.
CASH FLOW FORECASTS Break-even analysis is also useful for providing a format for cash flow forecasts. In every business plan there must be a section on financial projections. A business plan without projections is like a body without a heart. The quality of the financial projections is of key importance to venture capital investors. The task for entrepreneurs is to prepare a valid set of projections. Presentation is also of paramount importance. Financial projections have three components: 1 2 3
monthly cash flows; annual profit and loss statements (now to be known as statements of financial performance); annual balance sheets (now known as statements of financial position).
The monthly cash flows should extend for at least twelve months after the cash flow turnaround. It helps to plot a cumulative cash flow curve, as shown in Figure 13.6. The cash flow curve is similar to the economists’ J-curve for the balance of payments following a devaluation. Capital expenditure, set-up costs and working capital burn up cash, then as sales occur the cash flow turns from negative to positive. When laying out the cash flows, label the months as month 1, month 2, starting from the first capital injection. Otherwise
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you will need to constantly update the projections during the negotiations. The cash flow layout should consist of four sections: 1 2 3 4
operating cash in (sales, royalties, etc.); operating cash out (material, labour, rents, etc.); capital expenditure; financing cash flows (debt, equity, interest and dividends).
Cash balance
Operating cash in refers to cash received. Cash received comes from sales or government grants and not from financing. The key is to first make a sales estimate and then, using a lag of two to three months, estimate the debtors. Most entrepreneurs underestimate the debtors requirements. It is worth noting the actual figures in sales-days for some groups of listed companies. A sales-day is the annual sales divided by 365. Average debtors typically vary between 40 and 60 sales-days (see Table 13.2). Operating cash out is calculated in several steps. Step one is to work out the labour and material requirements for the variable cost section of the operating costs. This will vary from business to business. However, it is worth noting stock levels and creditors for certain businesses. Typical ratios are 60 salesdays of stock held and 35 sales-days for creditors. Step two is to work out the cash flows of the fixed costs such as management, sales administration and R&D. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100
Figure 13.6
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36 Month
Cumulative cash flow curve
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Table 13.2
139
Working capital ratios in sales-days for listed companies
Group
Stock
Debtors
Creditors
Builders’ suppliers Chemicals Food manufacturing Paper and packaging Retail Textiles
55 88 56 70 49 107
51 56 38 52 4 62
36 28 37 28 22 29
The third group of cash flows is capital expenditure. Tax payments should also be calculated. Taxable income will be equal to net operating cash flow less depreciation and provisions. Tax is typically paid nine months in arrears but recently has varied from Budget to Budget. After calculating the operating cash flows the next step is to prepare the financing cash flows. The usual technique is to first calculate the cash flows as if the financing were 100 per cent equity and no dividends. Then introduce debt financing into the model. It is necessary to do an iterative calculation, for interest will reduce the taxable income and in turn reduce the rate of repayment of debt. After completing the cash flows the entrepreneur needs to prepare profit and loss accounts and balance sheets. The preferred layouts below are described in full in Appendix A. The business plan should contain a maximum of five years’ figures. Two years should be summaries of past results while three years should be projections. If past results are not available then you only provide the forecasts. One format for the pro-forma profit and loss statement is: Sales – Cost of goods sold = Gross profit – Selling, general & administration = Earnings before interest and taxation – Interest
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= Pre-tax profit – Tax = Post-tax profit One format for the pro-forma balance sheet is: Current assets + Fixed assets + Intangible assets = Total assets Current liabilities + Long-term liabilities + Shareholders’ funds or equity = Total liabilities and equity Then a number of key ratios should be calculated, as detailed below.
Net margin This is the percentage that post-tax profits represents of the sales. Anything over 10 per cent is suspicious.
Gearing This is expressed as the percentage that total debt represents of shareholders’ funds, and is a measure of financial risk. Anything over 100 per cent is regarded as high.
Stock, creditors and debtors ratios These are collectively known as the working capital ratios. They should be calculated in terms of sales-days or annual sales divided by 365. Anything below 60 sales-days of stock, below 50 sales-days of debtors or above 40 sales-days of creditors is probably unrealistic.
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Return on equity The return on equity equals post-tax profits divided by shareholders’ funds expressed as a percentage. The return on equity should be above 15 per cent.
Interest cover This ratio is defined as pre-interest cash flow divided by interest payments. If the interest cover falls below 2 the financing risk of the business is too high.
Annual sales/employee This ratio should be calculated monthly but expressed as an annual figure. To calculate it you need to prepare a workforce planning chart which shows the monthly growth in staff. The monthly sales figures from your cash flow forecasts are then matched with the monthly workforce totals. Publicly listed companies vary from a low of $80 000 to a high of $200 000. If your figures fall outside this range, your workforce estimates are probably too low, or your sales growth estimates are too high.
Contribution and break-even point These two ratios should also be calculated on a monthly basis for the business. As a check you should also include detailed manufacturing cost calculations for the two or three most popular products. As indicated previously, before the introduction of personal computers such calculations before would have been very timeconsuming and expensive. With the advent of spreadsheets they are now easy to prepare and should take two to three days at most. Moreover, if your financial estimates are available on a spreadsheet you can change or modify your model relatively effortlessly.
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One mistake entrepreneurs make is to project at too detailed a level too far into the future. Remember that the plan should fit into a briefcase. Including pages of spreadsheets will try the patience of most investors. One page for annual profit and loss statements, balance sheets and ratios, combined with two to three pages for cash flows and workforce estimates, is often enough. The back-up documentation should be available but not included. On the other hand, key assumptions in the estimates should also be stated in the financial section. Samuel Goldwyn once said it is difficult to prophesy, especially about the future. If there is a consensus developing about forecasts it is that to try and make them for a ten-year period is impossible—just budgeting for eighteen months ahead is difficult enough. Entrepreneurs should have their minds fixed on two key dates. First, how long will it take before the business turns cash-flow positive, and second, in what year will net profit after tax exceed $2 million? The financial analysis should provide a good indication of those two dates.
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14
Preparing a business plan—organisational and operational issues The operational and organisational issues of importance to investors comprise the final significant part of a business plan. Among these are the organisational structure, quality of management, implementation plan, environmental threats, protection of intellectual property and employee ownership of shares. The first key task is to have a management team organised. The ideal management team includes people with skills in selling, finance and administration, operations and product development. Typically some necessary skills are missing but usually a start-up needs at least three individuals. There should be someone who understands and can sell to the market, someone who can develop and manufacture the product, and someone who can handle finance and administration. As important as having key individuals on board is ensuring relatives and friends are not freeloading off the company. Both the management and the board of the company should comprise competent people who are interested in increasing the net worth of the business. The best indication of quality of management is a track record in the industry with experience of start-ups. A good example of this would be the Sock Shop, a UK retail chain that specialises in hosiery. In the first four years of operation the company set up 59 small shops. In the fourth year turnover and net profits were $35 million and $3 million respectively. The
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company floated after three years when net profit exceeded $1 million. The management team is a husband and wife. The wife began her career in the typing pool of Marks and Spencer, the largest retailer in the UK, and worked her way up to become the chairman’s secretary. She left to help start Tie Rack Pty Limited, a chain of speciality tie shops, where she met her husband, a chartered accountant. In the eighteen months they both worked at Tie Rack, the number of stores went from zero to fifteen. This team of two together had the three key skills of sales, operations and accounting, and a track record in the industry. Although many investors and venture capitalists rejected their business plan, after four years the company had a market valuation of over $125 million. The business plan must include an implementation plan. This should start with a statement of the two or three key objectives the company will accomplish in each of the next two to three years. The plan should then contain a reasonably detailed operational checklist of the various steps that are going to happen in each calendar quarter. If these objectives are displayed in chart form, showing the start date and duration of each activity, so much the better. After the operational plan there should be a section on external obstacles to success. These may be legal restrictions and regulations, or problems with unions. Other difficulties may result from the manufacturing process. Aquaculture businesses, for example, must consider problems of food supply, temperature, energy costs, disease and predators. The operation section should address the ownership of intellectual property. Intellectual property refers to those intangible assets a company owns which are a result of invention or creative thinking. Many federal laws cover the protection of intellectual property. Among the more important are the patents, copyright, design, trademarks and trade practices Acts. The patent is the best-known form of intellectual property protection. Patent applications are valid if the invention is new, not in the public domain, and applies to a new substance,
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machine or process. Patents are expensive to obtain and cost $2000–$3000 per country. A worldwide patent could cost more than $300 000. Thus inventors may choose only to patent their invention in certain countries. To keep a patent the holder may have to prove the invention has not been in the public domain, otherwise the patent will not hold. There have been some unfortunate examples, such as the invention of monoclonal antibodies, where the desire of the academic to publish meant that patent protection was refused. Another problem with patents is that although governments grant patents they do not enforce them. Enforcement rests with the patent holder, who must go to court to stop infringements. It is the court that enforces patents. Another drawback with patents is the time taken to process the patent application. The first step in getting a patent is to lodge a provisional specification, which is a brief description of the invention. The date of lodgement of the provisional specification is known as the ‘priority date’, which a court will use to establish claims. Within twelve months the applicant must lodge a complete specification with descriptions and drawings, otherwise the provisional application will lapse. Once the complete specification is lodged, and up to a maximum of eighteen months after the priority date, the patent office publishes the complete specifications to allow the public to inspect and to object. Within five years of lodging the complete specification you must request examination by the Australian Patent Office which, if satisfied the invention is ‘new’, will grant the patent. The patent stays in force provided the annual fee is paid for sixteen years from the date of lodgement of the complete specification. Another problem is that for some products, such as medical ones, sixteen years is insufficient time to complete testing, launch the product and recover costs. Indeed a major industry has developed in the USA for the generic production of those popular drugs whose patents have run out. To speed up the patent process there is a lower order of patents, called petty patents, which allow the inventor to patent just one part of an
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invention. Petty patents last initially for one year and may be extended for a further five. A common strategy now is to go for a petty patent and extend it to a full patent if the product becomes a commercial success. Another problem with patents, especially with the advent of electronic databases, is that on publication the invention is in the public domain. Hence many companies now avoid patents and rely on other techniques for protection. While a patent is no guarantee of uniqueness it is wise for entrepreneurs to carry out a patent search. A patent attorney or entrepreneurs themselves can do this at the patent office. It is not a difficult task and the patent office can be very helpful. The advantage of the patent process is that it can be used as a negotiating tool if the entrepreneur or inventor decides the more profitable course of action is to license the technology. The inventor first lodges a provisional patent and, in the twelve months before lodging a complete specification, negotiates with several licencees. As a potential bargaining weapon the inventor can threaten to put the invention in the public domain so that nobody has unique licensing rights. Because of the sixteen-year time span for patents, intellectual property is better protected by copyright. Copyright protects the material form but not the idea itself. Computer programs, company manuals and silicon chip designs are examples of items that may now be subject to protection by copyright. Copyright rests with the author of a work except if he/she is an employee, in which case it rests with the employer. Protection typically lasts for 50 years after the death of the author. Copyright prevents copying of the original material form, such as an instruction manual, whereas patents provide a total monopoly which stops either production or use of an invention or process. However, as copyright protection arises when the work is produced and costs almost nothing, copyright protection is often sought because there is no delay, as with patents. Designs and trademarks are not regarded as vital for highgrowth business. They are for buy-outs, where often a trademark (which can last forever) may be a key asset of the company.
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Because patent registration means publication, more and more companies are using the protection provided by trade secrets. Many companies ask their customers, employees and suppliers to sign confidentiality agreements, either explicitly or as a term in a supply contract. In any trade secrets action part of the onus of proof is on the prosecutors, who must demonstrate they have made reasonable efforts to keep the product or method secret. The courts, after years of siding with defenders, are now beginning to side with the prosecutors over patent, trade secret and copyright infringements. For example, Kodak had to close down its instant camera division following a successful action by Polaroid. While patents may excite some investors, most investors prefer intellectual property to be protected by secrecy arrangements. What granted patents do provide to the investor is a limited proof of uniqueness. In the area of employment compensation, the business plan should cover two topics: the company’s policies on employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) and employment contracts. ESOPs are part of the venture capital game in the USA. It is almost an article of faith that employees should be able to acquire shares at a low cost and, if the company becomes successful and lists, share in the fruits. For example, in the week following the initial public offering of Apollo Computers, 39 new Mercedes appeared in the employees’ parking lot! In the USA special tax concessions exist which treat favourably employees who have received shares as an incentive. In Australia the position is unfortunately different, with a more complicated tax structure. Furthermore, the US experience indicates share distribution should be limited. If employees holding shares later leave the company, they may cause difficulties and be an impediment to the company’s growth. A common technique to avoid undue share dispersion prior to listing is to interpose a company or a unit trust called an employee share ownership trust (ESOT). The board or trustee
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will typically be a new company with the same board of directors as the issuing company. Employees are invited to take up issues of units depending on seniority and length of service. The next problem is to eliminate the tax burden created by section 26AAC of the Income Tax Act. Effectively, an employee shareholder who buys a share at a discount to market value will pay tax on the discount. Under recent changes, a discount to the market price is now tax-free provided the amount of discount is less than $1000. If the share is subject to conditions or restrictions of sale or if title to the share may be rendered null and void (if, for example, the employee leaves the company), tax is assessable when the restrictions are removed or the share is sold. One structure is to create a special class of partly paid shares that are paid to 1 cent. These shares are entitled to dividends and capital profits, but only participate on liquidation to the amount of capital paid. Another technique is to issue options on shares. If the employee believes the value of the shares is going to rise, he or she may elect under 28AAC to be assessed in the year the option was acquired on the value of the share less the exercise price less the issue cost of the option. Any capital profit the employee makes will still be assessable under the capital gains legislation. Options may be granted for up to five years and typically are non-exercisable if the employee leaves the company. The rate of capital gains tax (CGT) has been a major problem in Australia. In the USA the capital gains tax rate has now been reduced to 18 per cent and shareholders who invest in companies of less than $50 million valuation are only taxed at 10 per cent. This is a major shift in government policy and has resulted because the US federal government recognises the importance of new innovative companies in generating wealth and employment. One study indicated that 70 per cent of the new jobs created in the USA came from only 4 per cent of the growth companies. Thankfully, in Australia an internationally competitive CGT has at last been introduced. For individuals the CGT rate is half their marginal rate provided the asset is held for at
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least twelve months. For superannuation funds the rate is twothirds the superannuation tax rate or 10 per cent. Dividend imputation is a most positive measure for designing effective staff incentive schemes. By having partly paid shares that are entitled to full dividends and dividends that are fully franked, employees can pay the remainder due on their shares with a tax-free income stream. The company will also retain the capital for further growth. Moreover, employees can be given an interest-free loan to purchase employee shares, one of the few benefits not subject to fringe benefits tax. Another way of using dividend imputation is to pay dividends to employees instead of bonuses. Indeed, paying a dividend out of post-tax income has two additional benefits. First, the company establishes itself as a dividend-paying company. This is a characteristic that always attracts investors, particularly if the dividends are fully franked. Second, it has minimal effect on the investment analysts, who tend to look at annual profits after tax rather than retained earnings. The second topic in the employment compensation area is executive employment contracts. Experience demonstrates that such contracts favour the executive far more than the company. If entrepreneurs need the security of a contract and are insufficiently confident of their job, can investors be confident about the business? Equity should be a sufficient tie and adequate reward. The company policy, set at board level, should be not to have employment contracts.
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15
Choosing a venture capitalist Once a company has been formed, a business plan prepared and one or two successful businesspeople attracted as board members, a platform on which to raise money has been established. The next step is to contact venture capitalists and organise a presentation. Entrepreneurs should remember they are on a selling exercise—what they are selling is part of the company. For consideration they are obtaining cash plus intangible costs and benefits. The money invested will usually be coloured by the investor’s reputation. Investors with good reputations are invaluable. As mentioned earlier, part of the venture capital game is the continual round of fundraising. Entrepreneurs should expect support from early investors in raising extra funds. Important in the fundraising is the reputation of early investors. Entrepreneurs must establish the character of the venture capitalist. One simple test is to see if the venture capitalist is an investor member of the Australian Venture Capital Association Limited (AVCAL). The list of investor members is at the AVCAL website <www.avcal.com.au>. If the venture capitalist is listed, you can ask a stockbroker. Stockbrokers, leading accountants and corporate lawyers generally have a good idea of who are the venture capitalists with good reputations. The easiest way to find out about a venture capital company is to go to its website. The website should provide at minimum
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a description of key staff, investment philosophy and the investment portfolio. The website should also enable you to determine how much of the funds are invested and how much are available for new investments. Venture capitalists typically invest around 75 per cent of a fund and aim at keeping 25 per cent in reserve and for fees. If the website does not contain this information send an email requesting it. Websites of venture capital companies, besides providing an indication of the funds available, also usually contain a summary of individual investments. From reading it, entrepreneurs should be able to develop a feel for the type and size of investments. If the average investment is $3 million and you are seeking only $1 million, you may have a problem. The website may also provide the names of referees. Entrepreneurs can contact the managing directors of the investee companies and find out what the venture capitalists are like as investors and partners. Venture capitalists, if they become interested in a proposition, should spend a lot of time checking the entrepreneur’s references. There is no reason why entrepreneurs should not act similarly. The website should also provide the names of the company’s auditors and lawyers. While entrepreneurs can also use them as referees, they must be more circumspect. On the other hand, auditors and lawyers or investment managing directors can be used as introducers. Entrepreneurs who ask them for an introduction and reinforce the request with a business plan and creditable board members may well get an associate of the venture capitalist to carry out an introduction. Even better, the introducer may persuade the venture capitalist to ring the entrepreneur. Either method is preferable to either sending in the business plan unsolicited or leaving it behind after a coldcall presentation. Another key criterion is distance. The farther the business is from the money the smaller the probability of gaining funds. The more successful of the American venture capitalists, especially when they are expected to be the lead investor, refuse to consider any business where the head office is located more
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than 90 minutes’ travelling distance. Venture capital requires hands-on involvement and being too far away can be a knockout. Entrepreneurs are encouraged to adopt a focused approach to venture capital. The Australian venture capitalist community, while rapidly growing, still has an informal network and a scattergun approach can backfire. Perhaps the most important factor is the stage and type of the investment. Taking a seed or early-stage information technology proposition to an early-stage biotechnology fund or an MBO fund is a waste of time. Most venture capitalists regard themselves as hands-on investors, and the most common form of interaction will be at board level. Entrepreneurs should find out early who is going to sit on the board, what their experience in business is, and what has been the experience of other entrepreneurs with them as directors. Entrepreneurs should also establish how often they would have contact with the venture capitalists. Ideally, venture capitalists should talk to the entrepreneur at least once a week and visit, say, once a fortnight. If a venture capitalist is sitting on the boards of twelve companies and nominates someone else to maintain contact, it is a warning to the entrepreneur that there will be little personal contact. The first visit will probably be by the entrepreneur to the office of the venture capitalist. If the venture capitalist prefers to visit the entrepreneur first, that can be taken as an encouraging sign about the calibre of the venture capitalist. The entrepreneur should have prepared a short (fifteen-minute) PowerPoint presentation on the company, covering the mission statement, staff, the market, competition and financial requirements. The presentation will effectively be a show and tell. The best technique is to have either an overhead presentation or a set of slide copies bound into a booklet. Entrepreneurs should remember the rule of six: ‘No more that six lines per slide, no more than six words per line.’ If the investor asks questions at the end of the presentation that is a positive sign. However, the entrepreneur should remember the objective of the presentation is to get the investor to read the business plan.
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Many ventures are now using videos but, in my opinion, videos turn off an experienced investor just like business plans prepared by accountants. The first meeting is principally about establishing credibility for both parties. Further meetings will then get down to negotiation of the deal, and that is the subject of the next chapter.
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16
Negotiations with venture capitalists Negotiation is often compared to a game of poker. At first glance the odds would appear to heavily favour the venture capitalist. The venture capitalist has the money. The venture capitalist can walk away from the game and still have the money. The venture capitalist is repeatedly dealing with entrepreneurs so his or her negotiating skills are continually being honed, while the entrepreneur seldom meets with investors. On the other hand, entrepreneurs should remember that while a venture capitalist may see many deals, few merit investment. If your proposal attracts the venture capitalist, you have crossed the first hurdle. Furthermore, entrepreneurs can use the same weapon monopoly sellers have always used—the threat of a counter-offer. If the venture capitalist is aware you are discussing your proposal with other investors it can well speed up and help complete the negotiations. It is useful to note the characteristics of good (defined as tough) negotiators. Good negotiators typically: • • • •
open with a very high but realistic demand; make a few small concessions but no large ones; decrease their concessions as negotiations continue; are undisturbed by threats of deadlock but are conscious of methods of avoiding deadlock.
In venture capital negotiations the first key variable is the pre-funding valuation placed on the company before injecting
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funds. Valuations are discussed more thoroughly in Chapter 18 but the key equation, assuming all money invested stays within the company (the investors will subscribe to newly issued shares), is: funds invested Pre-funding valuation = – funds invested % of company owned For example, a company with an issued capital of 3 million shares issues a further 1 million shares for $500 000. Then: Pre-funding valuation = ($500 000) – $500 000 25% = $1.5 million It is important for entrepreneurs to realise there is no one true valuation of a private company. The valuations of public companies can vary substantially, as any reader of the financial pages who has followed takeovers would be aware. For private companies the range can be even greater. However, while the range may be wide it is not infinite. Entrepreneurs should aim at the high end of the realistic range. Moreover, there are many other negotiating issues besides valuation. While the business plan (which may be considered as the opening offer) may omit these topics, they will be negotiating points. Whatever structure the business plan proposes will almost certainly be modified. Venture capitalists seek several financial objectives in a deal, which are generally met by the structure of a deal. Structure refers to the number and type of shares issued and the mix of equity, debt, options and guarantees given. Every business plan contains financial projections—but venture capitalists know from bitter experience that the likelihood of entrepreneurs meeting projections is low. In the expectation that the company will fail to meet the forecasts, venture capitalists often suggest that they take a bigger share of the company at the start but have options granted to entrepreneurs related to performance. To counter this proposal the
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entrepreneur may suggest that options over part of the entrepreneur’s shares be granted to the venture capitalists if the performance is lower than projected. Another concern of the venture capitalist is that although the company may grow and prosper, entrepreneurs may change their objectives and decide to stay as head of a private company. If this change of plan occurs, the venture capitalists will have capital tied up in the company with no opportunity of recovery. Consequently, venture capitalists often seek to invest in the form of redeemable preference shares so they have the opportunity to redeem their original investment. Other venture capitalists choose a hybrid debt/equity instrument where the debt may be converted to equity if the company goes public. Examples of these so-called ‘Irish equity’ instruments are convertible notes or a subordinated loan with options. Entrepreneurs should seek to bank the investment as equity. While they will be continually seeking rounds of equity, they may need to use debt as bridging finance between rounds. A key ratio for lending institutions is the debt/equity ratio. The enterprise will find it difficult to borrow if there is already excessive debt on the balance sheet. Once the valuation and structure are agreed, entrepreneurs should obtain a letter of intent or term sheet. This is a two- to three-page document that contains the amount and type of investment, a list of the representations and warranties required, and the affirmative and negative covenants. The representations and warranties are defined in the shareholders’ agreement. Typical requirements are evidence of incorporation, schedules of leases and assets, latest audited accounts, schedules of insurance, and so on. On behalf of the company, entrepreneurs will then disclose the state of the company; the disclosures are attached as appendices to the agreement. These documents take some time to prepare and asking for what is required earlier rather than later lends a sense of urgency to the negotiations. The affirmative covenants are a list of actions entrepreneurs agree to carry out as long as the venture capitalist is an
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investor in the company. Common requirements are monthly board meetings, regular financial statements, payment of all government taxes, regular filings and maintenance of company records, preparation of an annual budget, and so on. The negative covenants are a list of actions entrepreneurs will not do or allow to occur without the approval of the investors. Common terms are increases in salary of key executives, purchase or lease of capital equipment above certain limits, acquisition or merger with another company, and changes in capital structure. These three areas of warranties, affirmative covenants and negative covenants should all be regarded as negotiable. Entrepreneurs should not be averse to asking why a clause is included. They will gain credibility with investors if their objections are thoughtful and sensible. Board composition is often a contentious topic. It is well worth spending some time on it because it will play an important role in developing the company. Entrepreneurs should aim at having a right of veto of appointment. A growing business typically goes from crisis to crisis. These crises tend to erupt at board meetings, and having inexperienced external directors who understand neither the technology nor the market can be disastrous. A final negotiating point is the payment of legal fees. This is a common procedure in the USA and is also attempted in Australia. In fact a company in Australia is unable to pay for the legal fees owing to the Corporations Law, which prohibits companies from purchasing or aiding in the purchase of their shares except in special cases. Venture capitalists may ask entrepreneurs to pay the legal fees or make some other form of payment as advisory fees. As a minimum, entrepreneurs should put a cap on the fees paid. Somehow discussions tend to be shorter if both parties are paying the bills instead of just one. On completion of the term sheet negotiations, the lawyers will draft and negotiate the shareholders’ agreement. If the venture capitalist has any ‘form’, a standard document should be available. Here entrepreneurs have to accept the golden rule of business: ‘He who has the gold makes the rules.’ On the
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other hand, you should have your legal officer inspect the document and list in order of priority the key clauses to negotiate and those susceptible to concession. Lawyers tend to treat all points of issue as material, while the commercial reality is that perhaps only 20 per cent are of commercial importance. One common technique of negotiation is to adopt a tough stance on all points and, if you think it necessary to concede, to do so on a point of minor importance. The shareholders’ agreement should follow the outline of the term sheet. You should, as an intelligent entrepreneur, have the accounts audited by a big accounting firm. Investors asking for a further audit should be told that will be fine as long as they pay for it. Warranties are a key part of the shareholders’ agreement. The investor will ask entrepreneurs to make a series of statements about the company, such as that no government taxes and duties are outstanding, the bad debt provisions are adequate, there are no lawsuits against the company, and so on. Investors rely on the word of entrepreneurs, and the shareholders’ agreement is the formal crystallisation of this. Many entrepreneurs become unduly concerned by the warranties. First, they should remember that once they have made the disclosure and the venture capitalist subsequently invests, the venture capitalist will have no recourse. Disclosure actually protects entrepreneurs more than venture capitalists and the policy should be to disclose everything. The tactic entrepreneurs should adopt is to try to ensure that included in each of the warranties is a disclaimer, something along the lines: ‘The entrepreneur has taken such fair and reasonable action as a businessperson would take to ensure, etc.’ Entrepreneurs should then take fair and reasonable action. With bad debts, for example, instead of just warranting that the provisions are adequate it is better to warrant that for the past three years bad debts were $X representing Y per cent of debtors, as of ‘a date’ the debtors’ list showed the following debtors as more than 90 days due. Furthermore, on telephone contact all the 90-day debtors indicated payment would be made in 30 days. Entrepreneurs should
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get hold of the list of required warranties early and start acting on them as soon as realistically possible. While the list of required warranties is gradually becoming standard there are still significant differences among investors. By now you may be wondering if the activity outlined in this section is worthwhile. Entrepreneurs should expect to spend at least six months, and up to a year, on preparing a business plan, meeting with venture capitalists, answering the due diligence questions and negotiating a shareholders’ agreement. The time initially taken and then repeated annually is what makes the financial controller, who should be a qualified accountant, an important member of the initial entrepreneurial team. Most business textbooks stress the need for such an individual, particularly when the company employs more than a dozen people. A typical rationale is the need for a business to have accurate reporting and cash forecasting systems. While such requirements are mandatory, the main reason for employing a financial controller for a high-growth company is the need to have one person focused on raising the next round of finance. Entrepreneurs should remember how to generate net worth. Net worth or shareholders funds’ is defined as assets less liabilities. One objective of business is to increase the net worth of the company. Indeed, many successful entrepreneurs have used a steady annual increase in net worth as their fundamental business objective. The failure of many businesses to remember this objective is a common reason for their business difficulties. One way to increase net worth is to increase assets. A typical technique of many high-tech companies is to capitalise research and development instead of writing it off against profit. Another common technique is to create some intangible asset such as intellectual property. Most people in the financial community are aware of such techniques of balance sheet improvement and will automatically remove such intangibles from the list of assets. Another technique is to reduce liabilities; for most businesses leasing does this. Leasing can be effective, but entrepreneurs should remember wide variations can occur in
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the marketplace. Annualised interest rates can vary by as much as 7 per cent over a four-year period. Such a difference could represent a total extra interest payment of over 30 per cent. Leasing is expensive and it pays to shop. Thus, to increase shareholders’ funds entrepreneurs have to produce retained earnings and raise new rounds of equity. Entrepreneurs should compare the two methods. A good business operates on a post-tax margin of 5 per cent. To add $500 000 to shareholders’ funds will require $10 million in sales. Ask most entrepreneurs if they would prepare a 30-page proposal, go through say 20 meetings, and negotiate a 30-page agreement for a $10 million contract, and the answers would be, ‘How? who? and when?’ Ask the same entrepreneurs to prepare a 30-page business plan and negotiate with financiers and many will say it is too difficult. Successful entrepreneurs know raising equity is the easier task. What is required is the ability to learn and speak the language of the financier. Another method of raising funds is to hire an investment banker or financial adviser. Many companies offer their services; few are satisfactory. Advisers can help in preparing a memorandum and may establish a realistic valuation. They can usually generate the first meeting with investors through their range of contacts. This can be useful if you are trying to attract institutional money. Financial advisers are also useful during negotiations. They can be more aggressive negotiators and any stigma or bitterness should stay attached to them. All sorts of companies are now involved in financial advisory work, ranging from accountants to the retail banks. Entrepreneurs should decide upon their advisers using the same criteria for choosing any service organisation: reputation, people and price. Contacts are important, especially when raising finance. Fundraising is selling. When choosing a financial adviser, ask him or her to sell to you. Ask the adviser for three recent references and details of three recent deals. Finally, get some feeling for price. Typically, fees are either on an hourly basis (the accountants) or on a fee-for-success basis. Entrepreneurs
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should at least get an estimate for the job and ask for a ‘cap’. With a fee for success the adviser takes a fee if the fundraising is successful. Fees vary but US rates are 5 per cent for the first million, 4 per cent for the second and 3 per cent thereafter. Entrepreneurs should be aware that a fees-for-success basis is riskier for the adviser. However, a successful adviser should gain more reward. Entrepreneurs should also be aware that investment bankers will sometimes ask for both time-based charges and a fee for success. A common method is to work on a ‘best efforts’ basis combined with share options. ‘Best efforts’ represent an effort and not a result. Paying someone a fee for a ‘best effort’ should be resisted, particularly if the effort is not defined. Entrepreneurs should also treat options with care, although they can be a most useful weapon when raising finance. Most entrepreneurs do not realise options have both an intrinsic value and a time value. The intrinsic value is easy to understand—it is the difference between the buy-in price of the option and the actual price per share. For example, if you have an option to buy shares at $1 (known as the strike price) and the present price is $1.50, then the option has an intrinsic value of $0.50. The time value is more difficult to define. As an indication of the time value one can look at the Exchange Traded Options in the newspaper. The value of an option varies according to many factors, including interest rates, share price expectations, share price volatility, time to expiry date and the ratio of current price to strike price. Options have a time value. Typically this will gradually erode as the option expiry date draws nearer, declining steeply in the final months. As an example of option value, take the price of an Exchange Traded Option for MIM on 30 June 2001, whose strike and current price were identical ($1.20). The value of the option depended purely on the time to expiry (see Table 16.1). For every month beyond two months the option price increased by 1 per cent, and for a two-month option the price is around 7 per cent. All too often entrepreneurs give away options when they should act as another source of funds.
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Table 16.1
An example of option value
Time to expiry of option 2 months 4 months 10 months
% of current price 6.7 8.3 13.3
Until now we have been discussing how to raise equity capital for a high-growth company. Raising money for a management buy-out uses many of the same principles, but is complicated by the greater number of players. Typically, you have the vendor, the management, equity investors, debt lenders and mezzanine investors. For a management buy-out you almost certainly want a financial adviser. However, to maintain credibility your adviser should also invest some equity in the buy-out. The tax and financing aspects of buy-outs are complex and current legislation affecting buy-outs in Australia is constantly being modified. It is critical for a buy-out that the structuring be done in the most tax-effective manner. Furthermore, during a buy-out, because of the number of different parties, allegiances keep changing. Negotiations are similar to the diplomatic negotiations that occur when the state and federal governments meet for the annual Premiers’ Conference. Management may agree with the vendors that the warranties required by the investors are too strict, and the next day side with the institutional investors against the lenders, who maintain that the debt/equity ratios of the proposed structure are too high. Negotiations are a complex process. The time spent on them and the stress they engender should not be underestimated. But initial sound negotiations followed by good documentation will reduce the negotiating load during later rounds of investment.
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Part Four INVESTING THE MONEY—WHAT INVESTORS MUST DO
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17
Screening criteria and due diligence In the second half of this book we examine the task of the venture capital investors. This and the next four chapters follow a single deal through the investment cycle. The venture capital investment cycle goes through five stages: 1 2 3 4 5
screening and due diligence; valuation; structuring and completion; post-investment activities; exits.
In this part of the book we devote an individual chapter to each stage. The last part of the book deals with the investor who is managing a portfolio of venture capital investments.
SCREENING CRITERIA Chapter 2 advised entrepreneurs to analyse a market by remembering the economists’ dictum of keeping one eye on demand and the other on supply. Similarly, venture capitalists should keep one eye on buying and the other on selling. Unfortunately, most non-professional (and many professional) investors develop a squint and prefer the excitement of purchasing and spending money to the strain of selling. Many commentators regard the late Larry Adler of FAI as one of the most astute investors in Australia. He had a particular
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reputation for picking takeover targets. He never made any secret of his formula for success. Instead of examining a target and trying to establish whether the current market valuation was lower than some intrinsic valuation, he tried to establish whether there was another potential purchaser of the company in the market. If he could envisage one or more potential purchasers of the company, he bought first. Venture capitalists should adopt a similar perspective. Successful real estate investors adopt the same philosophy. What the oft-quoted rule ‘location, location, location’ means is that the most common objection a potential buyer has to a property is its location. Location is a knockout emotional objection. While a seller can overcome many other objections, poor location is almost impossible. All the seller can do is wait for buyers for whom location is not a major issue, and those buyers are few. Otherwise they may start dropping the price to widen the potential market and compensate for the objection. Venture capital investors, therefore, should examine their investment in terms of potential buyers. The two most rewarding takeout mechanisms for the venture capital investor are the stock market and the corporate investor. As a general rule the venture capital investor will get a greater return from the stock market. While both techniques are examined in more detail in the chapter on exit mechanisms, the simplest rule to remember is both groups want profits and preferably a profit after tax of at least $1–$2 million. It follows that the first question venture capitalists should ask is whether the proposed investment can generate $1–$2 million in profit after tax in a reasonable time (say, between three and seven years). The investment task then becomes twofold. First, venture capitalists should carry out an initial screening to establish whether the business can reach $1–$2 million in posttax profits. If the answer is positive, the second stage, known as due diligence, establishes the risk of failure. The first stage of initial screening is to meet the entrepreneur and read the business plan. Investors are then like salespeople after the first cold call on a prospect. They must qualify the
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prospect to try to establish whether it is worth meeting again. When I was a salesman I was taught to qualify prospects using the acronym MAN, which led me to ask the following questions. • • •
Does the prospect have the Money to buy the product? Does the prospect have the Authority to buy the product? Does the prospect have a Need for the product?
Investors should have a similar grid or questionnaire to screen deals. One way is to use the simple mnemonic MAMECH to help you remember how to qualify an investment prospect: • • • • • •
Market size Advantage Management team Endorsements Capital requirements History.
Market size If the market is too small then no matter what happens the company will never be able to produce the necessary profit. As a rough rule of thumb, it is impossible to generate profits of $1– $2 million plus from a market smaller than $50 million. Market share and product penetration rates rarely increase at more than 3–5 per cent a year. Thus it will be difficult to build up a market share greater than 20 per cent within five years. Net profits after tax for most businesses rarely exceed 10 per cent. The highest annual net margin, achieved by Cochlear, has been 23 per cent. Thus, if the potential market is less than $50 million, venture capitalists should pass. On the other hand, if the potential market is large the investment becomes increasingly attractive.
Advantage The next question is what is the significant competitive advantage of the business? Normally the advantage is some product
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or technological edge, but there may be others, such as a new method of marketing or access to capital. It helps if the technological edge is proprietary. As mentioned earlier, protection provided by patent is limited and products protected by design, copyright or confidentiality agreements are preferred. It is useful to have an accurate costing of the R&D. Generally R&D represents 1–3 per cent of the total turnover of a product. Take a product that is projected to have annual sales in the next eight years of, say, $1m, $3m, $6m, $10m, $10m, $6m, $3m and $1m, or $40 million in total. Something between $400 000 and $1.2 million should have been spent on R&D. If not, there is probably an inconsistency in the product sales projections. Investors should remember that single-product and singleinvention companies generally fail. To succeed, a business needs a core technology or capability from which it can generate a host of products. Revenue growth is a good indicator of whether the company is keeping up with technology. If a company is not achieving top-line growth of greater than 15 per cent per year it might well be slipping behind its competitors.
Management team The management team is the next variable. Typically the team will consist of an entrepreneurial leader and several managers. Entrepreneurs come in all shapes and sizes but there are some defining characteristics. One common quality of successful entrepreneurs is an abundance of energy, which can best be gauged by meeting them. Entrepreneurs need to be enthusiastic about their business, their products and their markets. The only thing more contagious than enthusiasm is the lack of it. Another essence of the entrepreneur is persistence. Again and again entrepreneurs have overcome obstacles by a combination of tenacity and rat-like cunning. You can gauge the level of persistence by asking entrepreneurs to tell their stories, asking them about lessons they have learned and mistakes they have made. These will all provide clues.
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Another attribute of entrepreneurs is fluency. Business plans are valuable to investors because they show something of how well the entrepreneur can communicate. If entrepreneurs cannot communicate with investors, how can they communicate with customers and employees? Another characteristic of entrepreneurs is the ability to set realistic goals and achieve them. Nearly all successful entrepreneurs follow the management axiom of ‘planning the work and then working the plan’. Most admit that events modify the original plan and goals change. Nevertheless, conscious goal-setting is a common management style of successful entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs also think like owners rather than managers. While many multinational companies exhort managers to treat shareholders’ money as if it were their own, few actually do. Many managers worry about profit but do not have to worry about cash as there are credit departments and treasury operations to take care of that function. Owners on the other hand are driven by cash flow. If there are insufficient funds in the company they will not pay themselves. They are always looking for the cheapest option and how they can reduce outward cash flow. Owners travel at the back of the plane, multinational managers at the front. Investors should be seeking entrepreneurs not only with high IQ, but also with high OQ or ‘ownership quotient’. While gauging the energy level, persistence, fluency, goalsetting capability and ownership quotient of an entrepreneur is difficult and subjective, it is possible to measure his or her financial commitment. There is debate among venture capitalists as to whether the commitment should be everything or substantial but there is no doubt it should be significant. If investors do not see a financial commitment from the entrepreneur that represents a significant part of his or her assets (known in the game as ‘hurt money’), they should wonder if the investment would succeed. The entrepreneur is a key part of any deal but no entrepreneur can walk alone. It is difficult to gauge the quality of a
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management team but within the organisation there should be people assigned to carry out the business functions of marketing, operations and administration.
Endorsements The next step is to deduce from the plan the quality of the approvals the company and the concept have received. Some endorsements are better than others. Support accompanied by the receipt of money, such as a sale to a large customer or investment by a reputable institution, is better than an expert’s report obtained by payment of fees. The best endorsement is one given by a large technically competent buyer who has bought the product. A qualified investor who has invested equity in the project provides another good endorsement. If neither is available, venture capitalists must look to other endorsements. Again, the quality of these can vary. Future investors are happier if a successful and respected businessperson is either a director or, preferably, a non-executive chairman. On the other hand, it has been my experience that technical and market research reports by experts have limited value. Unfortunately, as many investors in high-technology floats have realised, the predictions of experts often fail to occur. Many experts have only limited knowledge of the marketplace in which the company operates. Reports prepared by management consultants or auditors tend to have the same defect.
Capital requirements The next step is to establish whether the capital requirements of the business are reasonable and within the investors’ limits. It is important to establish exactly how much entrepreneurs need and in what form. Investors should be sensitive to the total amount of capital exposure. As a rule Australian entrepreneurs tend to underestimate the funds required.
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History Finally, investors should have in mind the history of the company. The company should provide the latest copy of the accounts with the business plan. Failure to do so is suspicious. A business history of persistence, innovative marketing campaigns and a fierce dedication to controlling costs are signals of a good investment. After one meeting and a skim of the business plan, investors should be able to reject the plan or decide that the company is worth further investigation. The finance industry describes the further examination as due diligence. The most common reasons for rejection are: • • • • • •
•
The market is too small; The market is large but the company has insufficient competitive advantage; The financial projections lack credibility; The entrepreneur/management team is either inadequate or considered over-optimistic; The capital requirement is too small; The pre-funding valuation by the entrepreneur is too high or the investor believes the required return objectives will not be met; The investment falls outside the guidelines of the fund either because of stage, location or type of industry.
Pooled development funds, for example, are proscribed from investing in companies that are retail- or property-based, or have more than $50 million in assets. Furthermore, the first investment by a PDF must be for greater than 10 per cent of the company. Valuation, the subject of the next chapter, is the one variable it is possible to change. Valuation is a movable feast. Investors should wait for entrepreneurs to value the company first, in the small hope of undervaluation. Once this valuation is given,
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there is no reason for investors not to reply with their own estimate without prejudice. It is rare for an entrepreneur to value his or her company less than an investor. When this does occur it is typically the investor who is later proven wrong. If venture capitalists do consider a proposal worthwhile examining further, they should draft an internal paper on the proposal using the headings above. The completed document should be read again the next day. If the sentiment is still positive, the next step is to proceed to due diligence. Venture capitalists employed by a venture capital management company would distribute the paper among their colleagues, who would discuss the proposition in the weekly investment committee meeting and jointly establish whether they should go on with due diligence.
DUE DILIGENCE Investing is a trade-off between risk and reward. The reward side of the equation depends on the valuation and structure of the deal, which are covered in the next two chapters. Due diligence establishes the level of risk inherent in an investment. There are seven risks investors should analyse when carrying out due diligence: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
development manufacturing market management financing valuation exit.
The information required to establish these risks comes from a variety of sources and typically takes at least one to two months of effort to collect. It will usually take two to three months in chronological time to complete the due diligence task.
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Development risk Development risk is the risk that no product, only ‘vapourware’, will be or has been developed. Contrary to the popular notion, venture capitalists rarely invest in products yet to be developed. A statement such as ‘I need $1 million dollars to prove the concept’ will send venture capitalists ducking for cover. There are occasional exceptions to the rule, but they are rare and generally represent no more than 5 per cent of a venture capitalist’s portfolio. Entrepreneurs in start-up mode may raise funds from three sources: the public sector, large corporations that are looking for marketing rights or wealthy individuals, known as ‘angels’, who look upon the investment as a combination of tax loss and pleasure. What may attract an Australian venture capitalist to a start-up proposal is an exceptional management team, large market potential and substantial commitment of government funding. Venture capitalists must try to establish whether there is a potential new or outside development that will prevent the firm making the target post-tax profit of $1–$2 million. If the significant competitive advantage of the company is based on technology, investors should ask independent experts. While technical or academic experts may be helpful, a better alternative is to contact recently retired chief executives in the industry. Because of their experience these individuals have a wealth of information about the market and product development cycles. Moreover, they think in strategic terms and can often provide useful insights about the industry. While it is difficult to predict the technological future for a company, investors should try to obtain a history of product developments for the past ten years. Typically, product cycles range from between three to five years on release to the market. Venture capitalists will usually require, at minimum, a working prototype installed on trial at a customer’s site. If, however, they decide to invest in R&D it is worth remembering some statistics. For the period 1979–85 the federal government funded a number of large-scale R&D projects under a scheme
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known as the Section 39 Public Interest Program. The program invested $53.6 million across 29 projects. The program initiators, concerned that public funding would result in commercial success and possibly enrich companies, biased the program towards projects that were in the public interest. Nevertheless, several astute entrepreneurs arranged funding of some major projects which developed into successful businesses. The program was later the subject of a report that noted among other things that the typical project took twice as long as originally estimated and overshot the cost budget by about 33 per cent. The common reasons for the time delay were the inability to either recruit the right staff or get the necessary equipment. If the company has built up sales to, say, $10 million, what is then important is the annual budget for R&D. A consistent R&D effort is more important for a technology company than for any other, and it should be spending around 7–10 per cent per year.
Manufacturing risk If the company has developed a prototype the next step is to establish whether it can commercially produce the product. The most common reason for rejection of proposals based on life sciences such as biotechnology or aquaculture is excessive manufacturing risk. Even the most experienced farmers have crop failures due to poor weather or disease. A similar problem occurs with companies based around a new form of advertising. The entrepreneur may typically have invented a sign that uses new technology such as holograms or computers. The profits, based on the number of advertisers who will flock to use the new medium, look terrific. Unfortunately, the company is unable to obtain sites on which to place the advertisements. Another manufacturing risk is risk of supply. Electronics companies in Australia have a problem finding inexpensive components. Investors should establish whether there are any critical components supplied only by a single source. Another
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problem in Australia is the supply of certain types of labour. Cheap and illegal Mexican labour has built Silicon Valley. There are few chip plants around Boston. Government restrictions or legal changes are another risk. Investors must obtain warranties or proof if they are investing in a manufacturing business that the necessary government approvals have been secured or may be secured without difficulty. Government restrictions in Australia, while not onerous, are numerous and compliance is expensive. Similar difficulties arise when trying to export electronics and communications products overseas. Venture capitalists will bear manufacturing risk if they believe there is a guaranteed market. For many commodity and primary produce products the market is definite and the selling costs are minimal. If you can produce the product you can sell it. Even so, investors should understand the dynamics of the market, especially the price history. Moreover, once the manufacturing facility is built, the company should be the low-cost producer. As an example, CSR can produce sugar at 10 cents a kilogram. No matter what happens it is the world’s lowest-cost producer and it can usually make a profit even in times of over-supply and depressed prices. Even if the company is manufacturing the product, investors still need due diligence. They should take the bill of materials for two or three major products, establish the product cost and calculate the gross margin. If the gross margin is below 50 per cent, it is unlikely that the company will produce adequate profits. Good manufacturing businesses have gross profit margins of over 50 per cent and successful investments have gross margins of between 60 and 80 per cent.
Market risk Venture capitalists prefer not to bear either development or manufacturing risk. They do expect to bear the market and management risks. The marketing risk is the risk that there will be inadequate sales for the product. Among the key issues
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investors should address are the size, growth and expected market share of the company. Entrepreneurs are by nature optimistic and their optimism is reflected in the way they perceive the size of the potential market and the potential market share. The size of a market and its growth rate are usually difficult to establish and investors must spend time trying to ascertain both figures independently. One problem with Australia is that the market statistics are limited. On the other hand, the USA keeps comprehensive statistics and sometimes a guess may be made by extrapolation. For example, if you know that annual US frozen yoghurt consumption is 3.62 kilograms per capita, you may estimate the total potential Australian market as 18 × 3.62 or 65 million kilograms. Government studies, particularly Productivity Commission reports, are another source of information. These reports usually contain a comprehensive industry analysis. In addition, the reports generally list the major competitors and experts in the industry. Another public source of information is import/export statistics. These are obtained by a visit to the Australian Bureau of Statistics or its website <www.abs.gov.au>. Currency fluctuations may distort the figures but they still provide a useful guide to the size and growth rate of a market. The statistics are comprehensive and reasonably timely. Industry associations may also provide estimates of market size. Industry association executives can provide a wealth of information about the industry and should be contacted. Association executives are often familiar with the entrepreneurs in an industry and can provide independent corroboration of many details. Another source of information is the media. The easiest way to access the media is to use a computerised search facility. There are now companies that prepare abstracts of articles and books and then load the abstracts onto the Internet. By entering a key word and time period, users can obtain a listing of article abstracts for the subject. After reading the abstracts they can then choose those articles they think will be of interest.
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Customers are another source of corroboration. Investors should talk to at least six customers and establish their views about the product and the company. Talking to customers should also help establish the competition, the buying criteria, the reputation of the entrepreneur, and so on. Another tip for investors is to write out a summary immediately after a telephone interview. If not, they will find later interviews will overwrite it in memory. Finally there is the Internet. Many companies have put the equivalent of an electronic brochure on the World Wide Web and this can provide useful information. You can also access many of the articles archived by trade journals and business publications. Using the Internet search engines is a simple operation and the user is generally overwhelmed by the amount of information available. There are several other characteristics of markets that venture capitalists like to see besides size (greater than $100 million) and growth (greater than 20 per cent per year). One is low promotional cost. High advertising costs are a barrier to entry, causing immediate difficulty. Products advertised widely by word of mouth have a greater likelihood of success. Products or services that do not require advertising are preferred because they do not attract competition so easily. Advertised consumer products readily attract competition. Take, for example, the first wine coolers, which are a mixture of white wine and fruit juice. While the initial launch products gained large market shares, over 40 competitive products appeared within six months. Venture capitalists also prefer many competent buyers who are homogeneous. It is important to market a basic, easy-touse product which, if necessary, can be simply and easily tailored by the customer. Products that require substantial after-sales service or tailoring usually result in marginally profitable companies. An ideal product/market nexus is an item that retails for around $2000 to industrial buyers and includes some element of repeat business. Good examples would be modems, facsimile machines, cellular telephones and bottled spring-water coolers.
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If selling to either industrial buyers or to distributors, it is important to understand the industry norms with regard to credit terms. Also, the quality of the revenues should be checked by looking at the credit history of the five largest clients and also plotting the debtors ratio in terms of days’ sales outstanding (DSOs). A company may be trying to boost sales by booking as ‘sold’ shipments for which it will not be paid for several months. On average DSOs should range from 45 to 60 days. If the trend is increasing, the harder the company has to work to make the sale. Finally, there should not be any significant institutional barriers to sales. Examples of such barriers are Underwriting Laboratory approval in the USA for electronic goods, drug approvals by the Department of Health in Australia, and telecommunications authority approvals for connecting new products to public communications networks. When analysing a market, investors should distinguish between flows and stock. Tourism, for example, comprises travel to and from the destination and activity while there. For carriers such as airlines the crucial measure of the market is flow. For hotels the size of the market depends on the stock of visitors. The stock is the average flow multiplied by the average length of stay. The flow is easy to measure and length of stay may be obtained by survey. This leads to anomalies, such as the flow of Japanese tourists to Australia and Australian visitors to Europe being roughly the same but the stock of Australian visitors in Europe being five times greater. Thus many hotels which are being justified on the basis of increased tourism flows will probably be initially unprofitable because of low stock. One key to business success is to convert the revenue from a one-off stock sale into a regular cash flow. The Chep pallets division of Brambles is a good example of this process. Pallets could be sold from stock but by renting them Brambles obtains an even and steady cash flow. Once investors have decided on the size of the market they can take the sales projections in the business plan and calculate
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the market share. A first-year market share greater than 1–2 per cent and a market share within three years of greater than 10 per cent are danger signs. Companies do not gain 25 per cent market share in three years. If they do the market is generally too small.
Management risk Management risk is the risk that even though products may be manufactured and sold no profits will be made. Again, the best technique of establishing this risk is the interview. Ask the entrepreneur for at least six references. The selection is usually informative. After asking referees how long they have known the individual and how often they meet, the real interview starts. The key questions to ask are set out below. • • •
• • • • • • •
What are the entrepreneur’s three strongest characteristics? Does the entrepreneur have a track record of making profits in the industry? Can you relate any experiences where the entrepreneur showed persistence and originality in overcoming problems? How does the entrepreneur perform under stress? What do you think are the entrepreneur’s goals in life? How well does the entrepreneur manage other people? Does the entrepreneur finish projects or leave them incomplete? Would you have any doubts about the entrepreneur’s integrity? Would you invest in the business if you were given the opportunity? Who else knows the individual and could give me a reference?
In addition you should also do a credit check on the company and its directors by using a well-known agency such as Dun & Bradstreet. What you are trying to discover is whether the entrepreneur and his or her associates have the combination of drive,
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intelligence and persistence to succeed. Investors should have their antennae ready to detect any signs of lack of integrity. If there is the slightest doubt about integrity you must walk away from the deal. It is doubtful whether the referees supplied by entrepreneurs will provide an indication about integrity, but friends of friends often do. The best referees are those who have both worked with the individual concerned and also know you sufficiently well to be frank. The credit-checking agencies are other sources of information and should be used. About one deal in 20 has a whiff of scam about it. What distinguishes the professional investor from the amateur is not so much the ability to pick winners but the ability to minimise losses. It has been my experience with references that the entrepreneur either checks out well or a feeling of doubt begins to develop and then becomes stronger. It is rarely a marginal case. The market and technology can seduce investors, who then disregard lukewarm approval. They may not bother to check references. But they should obtain positive endorsement from the reference-checking and not 50/50 statements. A good measurement of management effectiveness is the operating margin (pre-tax profit over sales) of the business. If it is declining or it falls below 10 per cent it means either the company is discounting to make sales, expense controls have slipped or gross margins are falling. Another good measure to examine is the inventory level. If the stock intensity (stock level per dollar of sales) is rising and the business is one where inventory is only valuable if it is sold quickly, then the investor should be concerned. Some companies achieve stock intensities of $0.10, which is equivalent to ten stock turns per year. The best reference of all is track record. People who have been successful and made money for investments or employers tend to be able to repeat the process. What investors like to see is an entrepreneur who has gained experience as a general manager for a profit centre of a multinational corporation. He or she should know about performing to budgets, reducing costs and generating sales and profits, and should have developed management skills but think like an owner. This will occur if the
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entrepreneur has also started or owned a business. Venture capitalists want serial entrepreneurs most of all. These are people who have a track record of starting and selling businesses. Real entrepreneurs begin their business careers early. Bill Gates started his first business when he was sixteen. Management risk is regarded by venture capitalists as the most important risk to assess. Venture capital may be regarded as backing long shots compared to backing favourites (blue chips). There is no question that irrespective of the horse (the product), the horse race (the market) or the odds (financial criteria), it is the jockey (the entrepreneur) who fundamentally determines whether the venture capitalist will place a bet at all (Professor Ian MacMillan, Wharton Business School).
Financing risk Financing risk is the risk that when the injected funds are used up, the company will be unable to raise further funds. As stated earlier, the venture capital game regards fundraising as an annual event. The financing risk may be estimated in several ways. If the cash burn needed to develop the product or build the factory is faster than projected, the equity raised may be used up too quickly. Sales may also occur later than projected. Finally, either the variable or fixed expenses may be underestimated. Venture capitalists can quantify the financing risk by producing on a personal computer their own cash flow model of the investment using a spreadsheet. They should use a spreadsheet with graphics capability; then they can play around with the model, increasing the expenses, lagging the sales, and so on. They should develop their own sensitivity analysis for the company. For example, each month the launch is delayed will burn $30 000 of cash flow. By using a cumulative cash flow graph, investors can develop a feel for the realism of the entrepreneur’s projections and try to establish whether the business will reach a cash flow break-even point before it goes broke.
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The next task is to produce pro-forma balance sheets and income statements, and then calculate key ratios. There are a number of packages available to ensure consistency between the cash flows, profit and loss accounts and the balance sheets. Investors should first calculate the after-tax and gross margins. Far too many business plans contain ridiculous estimates of net profit margins. Figures over 10 per cent for after-tax margins are likely to be over optimistic. Expenses as a percentage of sales should also be calculated. R&D should be 5–10 per cent, administration should be 8–10 per cent, and marketing expenses should be 10–25 per cent. The next set of ratios calculated should be the asset intensity ratios. Manufacturers rarely have asset intensity ratios less than $0.33, wholesalers seldom beat $0.20. Debtors typically run 60 to 75 sales days, as does stock. Also, the debt/equity ratios should be calculated to see if the company is overgeared. As a general principle total debt should not be greater than net tangible assets. Finally, the ratio of pre-interest cash flow to interest payments should be calculated. A growing company should have a buffer of at least twice the interest payment. Finally, investors should calculate the sales/employee ratio. The poor business plan generally contains too many people at the beginning and too few people at the end. A good target figure for the sales/employee ratio for a manufacturer is between $150 000 and $200 000, while for a wholesaler it should be twice that. After the cash flow and ratio analysis, the final tool of financial analysis is break-even analysis. The calculations have been discussed in Chapter 13. One good test of entrepreneurs is to see if they have calculated the break-even point for their business. What is important for investors to calculate is the desired income point, which is the amount of sales required to generate a desired income. The formula for calculating the desired income point is: Desired income point =
(fixed costs + desired income) contribution rate
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For most businesses the variable costs are few. For example, in a restaurant the variable costs are food, drink and credit card charges. Investors must establish accurate fixed costs and then determine what prices will be necessary to achieve the desired income. Many new businesses price their services or products too low. On the other hand, if the market is one with a high degree of price sensitivity the investors could have problems. Investors need to be comfortable with the funds required and how they are going to be used. They should then try to establish the profits and performances of the company in one year’s time in the event everything goes to plan and in the event of things going wrong. Then a valuation for the company can be developed, using the techniques discussed in the next chapter. From the projected valuation investors should then establish the risk of not being able to raise further funds. Once investors have established the risks involved in a project they can balance the risks against the estimated reward. As a general rule investors should not accept more then two risks in an investment. Any more is likely to lead to capital loss.
Valuation risk Valuation risk is the risk that the investor pays too much for the investment. The subject of valuation is discussed in more detail in Chapter 18 but there are some checks that the investor can do to gain comfort. First, is any money ‘leaving the ring’ or are all of the funds being raised staying with the company? If funding is going into the entrepreneur’s pocket the investor should be suspicious. As a general rule, first-in last-out applies to fundraising and returns. If the entrepreneur or other investors are investing money at the same company valuation as other investors, that is a positive. Venture capitalists are judged on their returns and overvaluation can be expensive. Take, for example, two investments, one made on a post-funding valuation of $6 million and the other at $10 million. The venture
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capitalist exits on a valuation of $30 million in five years. The first investment provides a return of five times the original investment in five years or a pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 38 per cent. The second investment gives a three times return in five years or an IRR of 25 per cent. Returns above 30 per cent are rarely achieved and will certainly be accompanied by institutions providing more capital to the venture capital fund (VCF) manager.
Exit risk This is the risk the investor will not be able to exit the investment within three to five years. Most venture capital funds are terminating funds with a ten-year life span. Typically the manager has five years to make investments and then harvests the investments over the next five years. What venture capital investors fear most is the inability to exit the investment and therefore being trapped with a ‘living dead’ investment. This is an investment that is breaking even or making insufficient profits to list or sell to another party. There are certain industries that constantly make low or inconsistent returns to investors. Freight forwarding, textiles, fashion, new product retailing and franchising, and agriculture are examples of industries in which investors find it difficult to consistently make good returns or exit easily. Accordingly, investors do not value these businesses very highly. Besides avoiding investor unfriendly industries, investors can reduce the exit risk by structuring the investment to include some form of exit by either a put option or a redemption mechanism. The redemption can often be done over time, say three to five years. Typically, investors do not make much of a return but at least the capital is regained. The threat of a redemption will often cause the entrepreneur to come up with innovative forms of exit or replacement investors.
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18
Valuation
Once venture capitalists decide the investment proposal will serve a sufficiently large market, has significant competitive advantage, and at minimum has a competent and commercial entrepreneur, they must value the proposition. In deciding on the valuation the investors must first distinguish between the post-funding and pre-funding valuations. The difference is best described by an example. Assume a company with 100 000 issued shares decides to make a new issue of 20 000 shares at $50 per share to raise $1 million. The post-funding valuation is then 120 000 x $50, or $6 million; the pre-funding valuation is 100 000 x $50 or $5 million. Another way is to calculate the post-funding valuation by percentages and then deduct the cash remaining in the company to calculate the pre-funding valuation. For example, if an investor, after an investment of $1 million cash which remains in the company, owns 40 per cent of the voting capital, then the post-funding valuation is $1 million/0.4 or $2.5 million. The pre-funding valuation is then $2.5 million less $1 million or $1.5 million. If, on the other hand, 50 per cent of the cash ‘leaves the ring’, then the pre-funding valuation increases to $2 million. Many inexperienced entrepreneurs fail to recognise the difference between pre-funding and post-funding valuations, which can be useful during negotiations. Many do not either look at the value of their company or think in terms of share
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price. They tell themselves they do not want to give up more then 40 per cent of the company and the company needs $2 million. Thus they fix the pre-funding value implicitly at $3 million, even though this figure has no bearing on reality. Entrepreneurs should ask themselves what their company is really worth before an injection of funds. Even better is to think in terms of share price. For example, if a company has 150 000 shares on issue and its board considers the current share price to be $3.25, the company is valued at $487 500. As the company grows and funds are injected annually, the entrepreneur and other members of the management team are cognisant of the need to increase the share price and to do so in a commercially appealing fashion. Indeed, entrepreneurs may use this approach to advantage. One Australian entrepreneur, after every injection of equity, automatically raises the share price by 50 per cent and only accepts minimum parcels of $500 000. In the same way some US venture capitalists will not invest on principle at a share price greater than 400 per cent of the last purchase price. How much the investment steps-up in value as it passes from stage to stage depends on the industry. Table 18.1 shows the step-up ratio for various industries in the USA. This way of calculating the pre-funding valuation will help venture capitalists in negotiations with entrepreneurs involved in start-ups or where the company has a limited history of sales or earnings. It is difficult to put a pre-funding valuation greater than $500 000 on any start-up unless entrepreneurs are able to put money on the table from their own pockets, other investors or government schemes. Another rule the Australian venture capital investor should consider adopting is not investing in expansion deals at a prefunding valuation greater than $10 million or early-stage pre-funding valuations greater than $5 million. Higher valuations should only apply to companies that are near to a public listing. A valuation greater than $10 million is usually too high and probably has inadequate growth potential to justify the risk involved.
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Valuation
Table 18.1
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Step-up levels for various industries Valuation by industry and stage ($m) Start-up Development Shipping
Profitable
COMPUTER HARDWARE Average deal size Average pre-funding valuation Average post-funding valuation Step-up ratio
$4.1 $4.1 $8.2
$5.5 $11.2 $16.7 1.37
$4.8 $20.4 $25.2 1.22
$5.9 $47.6 $53.5 1.89
COMPUTER SOFTWARE Average deal size Average pre-funding valuation Average post-funding valuation Step-up ratio
$2.3 $3.0 $5.3
$3.1 $7.4 $10.5 1.40
$3.4 $14.1 $17.5 1.34
$5.3 $29.5 $34.8 1.69
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Average deal size Average pre-funding valuation Average post-funding valuation Step-up ratio
$2.7 $2.2 $4.9
$4.5 $8.3 $12.8 1.69
$4.2 $17.8 $22.0 1.39
$5.2 $34.6 $39.8 1.57
HEALTH CARE Average deal size Average pre-funding valuation Average post-funding valuation Step-up ratio
$2.6 $2.8 $5.4
$5.3 $16.2 $21.5 3.00
$4.4 $18.5 $22.9 0.86
$3.3 $41.4 $44.7 1.81
INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT Average deal size Average pre-funding valuation Average post-funding valuation Step-up ratio
$2.2 $2.1 $4.3
$3.3 $6.9 $10.2 1.60
$3.3 $13.0 $16.3 1.27
$2.5 $33.6 $36.1 2.06
SEMICONDUCTORS Average deal size Average pre-funding valuation Average post-funding valuation Step-up ratio
$2.6 $2.2 $4.8
$5.4 $13.8 $19.2 2.88
$6.2 $29.2 $35.4 1.52
$6.2 $52.0 $58.2 1.47
On the other hand, the valuation for an LBO should be considerably higher. Assume the exit mechanism for an LBO is predicated to be a public offering. If the minimum valuation acceptable to institutions is $20 million, the leveraged buy-out
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valuation should be similar. Both investors and entrepreneurs should note as a general rule that in an LBO investors should pay no more than seven times earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) and aim at a valuation of five times EBIT. As the EBIT for a mature company is usually 7–10 per cent of sales, the minimum range of turnover for an LBO is between $28 million and $40 million. The public stock market has established several ways of valuing a company which can also be applied to private company investment. There are, however, some important differences to consider in tandem with the methods of valuation.
NET WORTH VALUATION The first way to value a company is to use its net worth (assets less liabilities) and then adjust it for undervalued or undisclosed assets. This approach is most commonly used to value investment or real estate companies and should be used to value an LBO. For any investment, an investor must always calculate the net assets per share, net tangible assets per share and the price-to-book value ratio. Many people dismiss asset valuations for high-growth companies as irrelevant. On the other hand, many new companies include intangible assets on their balance sheet. One class of intangible asset is the revalued asset. Typically the revalued asset is either an intellectual property or a marketing licence. From the asset revaluation it used to be possible in Australia to issue bonus shares to the existing shareholders. Such issues are no longer possible, but the revaluations are still done to try to add value to a company. As the board of directors carrying out the revaluation and entrepreneurs seeking funds at the highest valuation are often closely associated, any investor should treat such revaluations with caution. The other form of asset revaluation is to capitalise R&D or product-launch expenses. This practice has the double effect of reducing expenses in the profit and loss account and building up the asset side of the balance sheet. As R&D is a future
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benefit, some argue it should be taken out of future sales. It is similar to the justification property developers sometimes use to capitalise interest on a mortgage on the grounds it will be recovered when the building is sold. The countervailing view is to account conservatively, accept the bad news early and the good news when it happens. Interest rates may compound faster than the capital growth of the land. Professional institutional equity-investment managers prefer the latter principle and automatically remove intangible assets unless there is a history of profits and sales as justification. Examples of acceptable intangible assets are newspaper mastheads and longstanding brand names. Venture capitalists and private investors should follow the professionals. If the price-to-book ratio is greater than 1, or the net assets contain significant intangibles, the investor must demand justification. They can turn the asset valuation method to advantage. They should calculate the pre-funding valuation, subtract the net tangible worth of the company and ask the entrepreneur to justify the difference. The difference can only be one of two asset types: identifiable intangibles and a residual amount, commonly called goodwill, which comprises unidentifiable intangible assets. What value you put on identifiable intangibles is a matter of contention. However, let us take the extreme example of an invention that will attract a licence fee of 2.5 per cent and whose expected annual sales will be worth $1 million. The life of such a product will be ten years, which in today’s environment is a long product cycle. If we apply a discount rate of 12 per cent, then the net present value of the licence is $141 255. Few products achieve $10 million in total sales. Thus, when one sees licence revaluations of several millions in new companies, the directors, probably unintentionally, are implying sales of several tens of millions. When trying to establish the value of an intangible asset, ask who would really pay that value for the asset. Is it transferable? How long will the intangible asset hold its value? Patents, for example, have a limited life span and are only of value if the holder has the power to fight an infringer in court.
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PRICE-EARNINGS RATIO The most common valuation technique used by investment analysts for industrial stocks is the price-earnings ratio (commonly known as the P/E ratio). One calculates the P/E ratio in two steps. First calculate the market capitalisation of a company by multiplying the number of ordinary shares on issue by the last sale price for a share. Then divide the market capitalisation by the total earnings due to the ordinary shares on issue. Earnings due to shareholders are generally defined as profits after tax. Implicit in the P/E ratio is the assumption that earnings will be maintainable over that period or will substantially increase. For example, a company with a net profit of $1 million on a P/E of 10 is expected to earn a similar figure for at least the next ten years. Investors should be aware of several traps with P/E ratios. First, net profit is a post-tax figure. Far too many Australian entrepreneurs show complete ignorance of P/E ratios and apply them to pre-tax figures. Moreover, it is easy to distort the earnings figure. One popular technique is to treat extraordinary profits as ordinary profits. Another method is to use a lower than standard corporate tax rate. When carrying out a valuation the investor should eliminate extraordinary profits such as asset sales and one-off royalties, and profits earned from interest-bearing deposits, and use the normal tax rate. The earnings figure should also be calculated after deducting the payment of any preference dividends and minority interests. If a company does not fully own a subsidiary then it cannot claim 100 per cent of the profit the subsidiary may make. The accounting convention for minority interests is to first claim 100 per cent of earnings and then deduct that profit attributable to outside shareholders. The average P/E ratio for all listed stocks is calculated weekly by the Australian Stock Exchange and published each Monday in the Australian Financial Review. It is a useful figure and every investor should be familiar with the current value. Two ratios are published: the All-Ordinaries and All-Industrials.
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The Australian Stock Exchange has a higher proportion of resource stocks then most stock exchanges, although as a percentage it has declined substantially in recent years. Resource stocks tend to be price takers and fluctuating commodity prices dominate the profits. The P/E ratios for mining stocks tend to be volatile. Also, when considering the All-Industrials, it is worth noting the high proportion of banking stocks in the Australian index. Banks, because of their high gearing, tend to be rated on lower P/E ratios. Figure 18.1 shows the All-Ordinaries P/E ratio over the period 1983–2001. As can be seen there has been a secular increase over that period from around 12 to 20. While the publicly listed P/E ratios are important, they cannot be applied indiscriminately to private companies. First, the publicly listed P/E ratios contain a premium for liquidity. As many stock market investors found to their cost, the eventual selling price of second-line stocks after the millenium tech-wreck resulted in P/E ratios about half those of the blue chips. A good example was Macquarie Bank, that prior to listing ran a ‘informal market’ in their shares on the last Wednesday of each month. When Macquarie Bank announced 60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
Ja n Ju -83 l Ja -83 nJu 84 lJa 84 n Ju -85 Ja l-85 nJu 86 lJa 86 nJu 87 Ja l-87 nJu 88 lJa 88 n Ju -89 l Ja -89 nJu 90 lJa 90 n Ju -91 l-9 Ja 1 nJu 92 lJa 92 nJu 93 Ja l-93 nJu 94 lJa 94 n Ju -95 Ja l-95 nJu 96 lJa 96 n Ju -97 Ja l-97 nJu 98 lJa 98 n Ju -99 l-9 Ja 9 nJu 00 lJa 00 n01
0.0
Figure 18.1
Australian P/E ratios 1983–2001
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that it would seek public listing the informal market price increased some 50 per cent in anticipation. Second, the market requires a company to prove itself and develop a history of improving earnings. A newly listed stock is not brought to the market at a P/E equal to the prevailing ratio but at a discount, typically of about one-third. Again, when Macquarie announced to the market it was going to exceed its prospectus forecasts, the market, in a stunned reaction to this unusual event, increased the share price by some 50 per cent. To incorporate these two factors of limited liquidity and lack of earnings history, investors must discount the P/E ratio by about two-thirds for private companies. Thus, over the past 20 years investors in a private company would have used a P/E range of from 3 to 9 depending on market conditions. The problem with using P/E ratios with many private or newly started companies is there are no profits. Two approaches to combat this have been developed in the USA: to use either an estimate of future earnings or a price-to-revenue ratio. The price-to-revenue ratio is an easy multiple to understand (it is the ratio of market capitalisation to annual operating revenues) and is a common calculation for publicly listed stocks in the USA. As a rule US investors look to buy on price/revenue ratios of around 50 per cent and would regard a ratio of 300 per cent as a maximum. The earnings/sales ratio varies between about 3 and 8 per cent for most industrial companies. These ratios imply a minimum P/E ratio of 4 to 12 and a maximum ratio between 37.5 and 100. The private company investor who uses the price-to-revenue ratio technique should aim at a ratio of one-third and not pay more than 150 per cent of revenue. The estimate of future earnings approach is probably the method most commonly described in the venture capital textbooks. The calculation involves taking an earnings figure in say three to four years’ time, multiplying it by some price/earnings ratio and then discounting the value back using a discount rate to a net present value. Investors using this method must make three decisions:
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1 2 3
193
What P/E ratio should be used? What discount rate should be used? What time period should be used?
The prevailing interest rates and the stage of the investment combine to determine the discount rate. Interest rates over the last ten years have shown as much fluctuation as equity prices, as Figure 18.2 illustrates. What the investor must do is use a market-sensitive long-term rate. The easiest to use is the tenyear Commonwealth bond rate, which is published in the financial section of most major newspapers. The question then Table 18.2
Growth stages in a company
Stage
Description
I II III
Seed/start-up Second stage Development stage
Sales
Profits
Multiple
No Yes Yes
No No Yes
7–9 5–7 3–5
16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00
Ja n Ju -83 l Ja -83 nJu 84 lJa 84 n Ju -85 Ja l-85 nJu 86 lJa 86 nJu 87 Ja l-87 nJu 88 lJa 88 n Ju -89 l Ja -89 nJu 90 lJa 90 n Ju -91 l Ja -91 nJu 92 lJa 92 nJu 93 Ja l-93 nJu 94 lJa 94 n Ju -95 Ja l-95 nJu 96 lJa 96 n Ju -97 Ja l-97 nJu 98 lJa 98 n Ju -99 l Ja -99 nJu 00 lJa 00 n01
0.00
Figure 18.2
Ten-year bond rate 1983–2001
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becomes which multiple to apply to this interest rate. The multiple must vary according to the stage of the business (see Table 18.2). Using the definitions stated earlier in the book, there are three precise stages in the growth of a company. The gross multiple is then varied according to size of market, significant competitive advantage and quality of management team. The second decision is in which year to apply the P/E ratio. Earlier in the book we set as a screening criterion whether the business was capable of earning $1–$2 million post tax. The year this occurs is the time to apply the P/E ratio. However, the $1–$2 million in net profit must be based on a fully applied tax rate and should not be used when the profit figure is favourably distorted by carried-forward tax losses. Hence, the year chosen will typically be when the pre-tax operating profit exceeds $1.6 million. Let us now look at three examples, which were calculated on 30 June 2001. The All-Industrials P/E ratio was around 18 so the applied P/E ratio was 6. The ten-year Commonwealth bond rate was around 6 per cent.
Case 1 A start-up company is seeking $500 000 and projects earnings of $1.5 million in five years. The market is large, advantage is average and the management team is excellent. Apply a discount multiple of 8, giving a discount rate of 48 per cent. Then the value in five years is 6 times 1.5 or $9 million. 1.48 raised to the fifth power is 7. Net present value of $9 million discounted at 48 per cent over five years is $1.27 million, so $500 000 should buy 39 per cent.
Case 2 A second-stage company is seeking $1 million, projecting $1.25 million earnings in three years. The market is average, advantage is significant and the management team is average. Apply a discount multiple of 6, or 36 per cent. Then value in
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three years is 6 times 1.25 or $7.5 million. 1.36 raised to the third power is 2.52. Net present value of $7.5 million discounted at 36 per cent over three years is $2.98 million, so $1 million should buy 33 per cent.
Case 3 A development-stage company is seeking $1 million, projecting $1 million net profits in two years. The market is average, advantage is significant and the management team is good. Apply a discount multiple of 4, or 24 per cent. Value in two years is 6 times $1 million or $6 million. 1.24 raised to the second power is 1.54. Net present value of $6 million discounted at 24 per cent over two years is $3.9 million, so $1 million should buy 26 per cent. Someone familiar with the financial markets might regard the discount rates used as excessively high. In mitigation, venture capitalists offer two explanations. Firstly, the investments are long term, typically at least three and more often at least five years. Over a five-year period, as Figure 18.1 clearly demonstrates, the prevailing P/E ratio varies substantially. So although a venture capitalist may have built a diversified portfolio, the portfolio still suffers from substantial systemic risk. Moreover, studies have shown the volatility of a VC portfolio to be more than twice that of the share market index. Secondly, while liquidations do occur in the listed market they are relatively uncommon. By contrast the average VC portfolio may have up to a third if not a half of the portfolio written off. Most VCs target a return of 20–25 per cent to investors. Accordingly, to achieve those returns, given that half the portfolio is going to be written off, means the other half of the portfolio is going to have to generate 40–50 per cent returns. If the venture capitalist decides to use the discounted earnings approach as a means of valuation, he or she should remember that the entrepreneur might use any or all of these three strategies:
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•
•
•
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First, it is likely the future projections will be overoptimistic, because the greater the future valuation of the company the less equity they will have to sell to raise their venture capital. The public offering will be proposed earlier rather than later because the shorter the holding period for the investment the less equity will need to be sold. Expand the company as quickly as possible before raising venture capital, because the longer the entrepreneur can wait the lower the required rate of return and the shorter the holding time to harvest.
INDUSTRY STANDARDS VALUATION The third method of valuation is to use comparable company results or industry standards. In many industries there are rules of thumb such as multiples of weekly revenues for restaurants, multiples of litres pumped for gas stations, $X per phone for cellular telephone companies, and so on. Unfortunately many of these multiples are only available for stable industries and the ratios generally favour the seller. Many entrepreneurs quote US figures. These are figures for listed companies, which as noted before will be about three times the value for a private company. Also, the size of the US market reduces the business risk. Industry standards have limited appeal as a valuation method for the private company investor.
OTHER APPROACHES While all these forms of financial valuation are in the venture capital books, venture capitalists often use a different approach. To offset the risk of the investment, they look for high returns. Typical expectations are five to ten times the original investment in three to five years. These objectives equate to compound growth rates of 71 per cent and 58 per cent respectively. Venture capitalists also realise the fundraising never stops and each year brings a new injection of equity. These rounds
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are commonly called Series A, Series B, Series C, and so on. Hence a method they commonly use is to establish both a reasonable time and date for the exit and work backwards. Table 18.3 demonstrates this approach. Let us say a university department has been carrying out research over the past three years and so far has received some $1 million in funding. They contact an early-stage VC and together develop a business plan that shows it will take some $21 million over the next five years to commercialise and roll out the product. The VC believes in five years the IPO will be for $40 million and $10 million will be raised. That leaves $11 million to be raised over the next four years. The VC then creates the stage financing model, showing the amount required each year and the expected IRR for that round. For the first year the VC will invest $0.5 million and wants a 65 per cent IRR. In year 2, $1.5 million needs to be raised and the expected IRR is 55 per cent, and so forth. Working backwards, the VC establishes that to achieve the necessary return in the first round the required share ownership is 21.8 per cent. This puts an implied valuation of $1.79 million on the research, which is a reasonable step up on the money invested so far. The university agrees and it sets up a company with 100 000 1-cent shares, of which the university takes half and the researchers take half. In the Series A round the VC subscribes for 27 933 shares at $17.90 per share, leading to a dilution factor of 21.8 per cent. The dilution factor is calculated by dividing the new shares issued by the total shares post the issue, or 27,933/127,933. This leaves the founders with 78.2 per cent of the company. As can be seen over the next four rounds, the dilution factor is between 25 and 30 per cent. However, as explained in Chapter 6, the founders share the dilution with earlier investors. Hence, by the IPO the founders own some 22.4 per cent of the business and their carried interest would be worth some $11.2 million. Of course, life is not a smooth trajectory and what is known as ‘down rounds’ can occur, where instead of the valuation rising it declines. However, the principle of shared dilution still applies. One of the more famous down rounds in VC history was
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Table 18.3 Stage
The stage financing model
Year
Funds Cumulative Expected Post-fund. Pre-fund. invested funding
Founders Series A Series B Series C Series D IPO
0 1 2 3 4 5
0.001 0.5 1.5 3 6 10
0.001 0.501 2.001 5.001 11.001 21.001
IRR
65% 55% 45% 35% 25%
Dilution Founder’s
valuation valuation
1.79 2.29 5.28 11.19 22.22 40
1.79 1.79 3.78 8.19 16.22 30
holding
21.8% 28.4% 26.8% 27.0% 25.0%
100% 78.2% 56.0% 41.0% 29.9% 22.4%
Federal Express in the USA. The share prices on the four rounds were $47.45, $204.17, $7.34 and $0.63. The IPO was at $6 and the founders ended up with 0.7 per cent of the company. But then 0.7 per cent of US$12 billion is not a bad reward. All these methods of valuation are valid and will lead to a range of values. Ultimately, the investor and entrepreneur must remember that the valuation is the price at which people are willing to invest and it is a subjective figure. If no deal is done no actual valuation has been achieved. On the other hand, there are several reality checks investors can apply before investing. One question to ask is whether they would be able, with a reasonable amount of effort, to sell their newly acquired holding and break even or make a small profit? If the answer is not convincing, then they should not invest. Another reality check is to work out the implied compound annual sales growth required from the investment. Table 18.4 contains two examples, ‘Ozzie Trier’ and ‘Internet Dreamer’. Ozzie Trier has $3.5 million in revenues and obtains a VC investment of $2 million at a post-funding valuation of $6 million. The VC hopes for a 40 per cent IRR and to exit in five years, leading to a valuation of $32.3 million. Given an expected P/E of 15, net profits will be $2.15 million which, if then divided by the expected net profit margin of 10 per cent, leads to expected sales in five years of $21.5 million. To achieve this result sales must compound at 44 per cent per annum. The
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199
Implied annual compound growth rates Ozzie Trier
Current annual revenues Post funding valuation Expected IRR Expected time in years Valuation at exit time Expected P/E ratio Expected profits Expected net profit margin Expected turnover Compound annual growth rate
$3.50 m $6.00 m 40% 5 $32.27 m 15 $2.15 m 10% $21.51 m 44%
Internet Dreamer $0.50 m $20.00 m 40% 5 $107.56 m 15 $7.17 m 10% $71.71 m 170%
reality check is that the best sales growth that Microsoft achieved over a five-year period was 53 per cent; for Dell it was 66 per cent. Internet Dreamer typifies the numbers that Nanyang Ventures were presented with during the dot.com boom of 1999–2000. As can be seen, the required compound sale growth was 170 per cent, which is out of touch with reality. Accordingly, deal after deal was rejected—indeed, for the period December 1999 to September 2000 Nanyang withdrew from the market. This simple test saved investors considerable sums of money.
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19
Structuring the deal
If investors decide a proposal is believable and the valuation is such that the rewards outweigh the risks, the next step is to structure the deal. We will first discuss the objectives of entrepreneurs and investors, followed by a description of the tools of structuring, and finish with a discussion of other structuring issues investors should address. Due diligence of the business opportunity and agreeing on the valuation appear to take most of the time, but the structure of a deal is probably more important. Good business prospects have been ruined by improper structures; similarly, entrepreneurs or investors have not received their just reward from business success because of poor structure. We have already stated the rules of the venture capital game, but it is important to repeat those relevant to structuring: •
• •
•
The common objective of both parties is to build an enterprise generating sufficient after-tax profits so the institutions will invest in a public listing. Building such an enterprise will require a series of funding injections. The reduction in the rate of capital gains tax and limited liability rules make the private company the most attractive business organisation. The financing task is finding sources of unsecured debt and equity.
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The first step in determining the investment structure is to realise that the objectives of investors and entrepreneurs differ. Entrepreneurs’ wishes are simple—they wish to give up as little equity for as much cash as possible. Surprisingly, it is a mistake for the investor to take the opposite view and try to get as much equity for as little cash as possible. If the cash amount is too small (and usually entrepreneurs underestimate the cash requirements), the business stalls because another round of funding must be started. On the other hand, if the business is overcapitalised, entrepreneurs may purchase luxury cars and lease space in expensive offices. Every farmer knows too much water can kill a crop as well as too little—the amount of funding is as important as the implied valuation. Secondly, if initial investors take too much equity, later dilutions may result in too little equity residing with the entrepreneurs, who will lose motivation. Venture capital investors should have different goals. They should be seeking the return of their capital with an adequate reward for the risk taken, combined with the ability to share in the gains on an equitable basis with the entrepreneurs if the business becomes a success. Private investors and entrepreneurs should also carefully evaluate their motives when investing. If investors do not aim to achieve a return by a publicly listed vehicle, or if entrepreneurs are uncomfortable with sharing ownership, then both should seek other forms of funding. The private investor can provide a second mortgage, ask for a royalty on sales or even purchase a building and lease it for a minimal rental. These types of investment substantially reduce the gain but significantly reduce the pain. It is also important to understand that objectives may change over time. The young entrepreneur may come to realise that the business will not grow large enough to list publicly and be content to draw a healthy salary, join the Rotary Club and seek election to the local council. The investor will then own illiquid private shares with no buyer until the incumbent appointee decides to retire. The enterprise may fail to meet the original projections. Investors then seek capital recovery and need to ensure they
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regain their capital before the entrepreneur does. Investors should also consider obtaining a note from entrepreneurs to repay any investment, if not now, then some time in the future. As a matter of principle, entrepreneurs must have some hurt money at stake. Asking them or their families to recognise a future obligation to repay former backers is not unreasonable. Times change, and while one enterprise may fail another may be very successful. On the other hand, investors occasionally find an entrepreneur who has failed in an enterprise but whose creditors or lenders did not lose any money. Even better, the entrepreneur paid them back even when not obligated to do so. Investors should back such an individual almost without question. In summary, venture capital investors are not looking to gain as much ownership for as little money as possible. What they are trying to accomplish is capital return, with some capital gain for either indifferent or marginal performance or significant capital gain if the enterprise prospers, while acknowledging the risk that all their capital may disappear. To produce this result venture capital investors may use various tools. Venture capital financing is mezzanine financing. The term mezzanine financing is best understood by regarding the choice facing the corporate financier as a multi-storey building. Debt financiers in their search for collateral prefer debt to be secured with a fixed charge against a specific company asset. This debt is at the top of the building and is senior to all other payments at the time of liquidation. Beneath the top floor could be a secured lender with a floating charge over assets. Then there may be unsecured lenders, who rank behind the secured lenders if the company goes into liquidation. Often unsecured lending is done by a negative pledge. This refers to certain financial ratios, which the company agrees not to breach. The most common ratios used in a negative pledge are gearing and interest cover. Gearing is the ratio of debt to shareholders’ funds. Interest cover is the ratio of earnings before interest and tax to interest paid. Typical target values for gearing and interest cover are below 100 per cent and above 3 per cent respectively.
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On the bottom floor of the building are the ordinary shareholders. The original shareholders usually subscribe for shares, typically at a value of $0.50 or $1. Later investors subscribe at a higher valuation. Ordinary shares have voting rights plus the right to receive ordinary dividends. Dividends are paid out of the after-tax profit and are usually paid semi-annually. On the stock exchange, where shares are traded, there could be confusion about whether the buyer or seller is entitled to a dividend. The confusion is eliminated by setting an ‘ex dividend’ date whereby shares traded after that date are ‘ex’ (without) the dividend, denoted by XD after the share’s name. Shares traded before that date are traded ‘cum’ (with) dividend. Mezzanine finance refers to financing between the top floors of debt and bottom floors of equity. Hybrid securities and ‘Irish equity’ are other names. The three most popular forms of hybrid securities are convertible notes, subordinated debt with options, and redeemable preference shares.
CONVERTIBLE NOTES Convertible notes, as the name implies, are a loan for a fixed period at a fixed (but possibly floating) rate of interest. The holders of convertible notes have the right to convert them to ordinary shares at specified dates in the future. If the conversion does not occur the loan is paid off at maturity. In order for the company to be able to deduct the interest payments for tax, conversion of the notes cannot occur within two years from the date of issue, but must occur within ten years. The conversion is at any time, at the option of the lenders. The conversion price must be the greater of the par value of the share or 90 per cent of the market price of the shares during a valuation period before the time of issue. Convertible notes are popular when interest rates are high and there is a bull market. Convertible notes are a cheaper source of capital compared to equity. If the shares are selling at a high yield, by issuing a convertible note the company will gain the tax deduction on the interest. Sometimes financiers
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recommend convertible notes as a form of financing for initial seed capital. Convertible notes are a good financing method for projects that might take several years to be profitable but where the costs and time of development can be predicted with a reasonable degree of certainty. The lower cost to the company during the development stage converts to a higher cost when the project is profitable. However, for this type of project financing (say a building or a mine), experience provides a reasonably good estimate for development costs, so it is easier to calculate the funding requirements. A convertible note is usually priced at a premium to share price. The premium is usually a function of the running yield of the note less the dividend yield of the share. Typically, investors regard a premium of more than twice the net running yield as too high. For example, assume a company’s shares are trading at $2 and pay an $0.08 dividend, so the dividend yield is 4 per cent. Say the company, which is currently paying 15 per cent on bank bills, wishes to refinance with a convertible note paying around 8 per cent. The maximum amount of premium would be twice the net running yield of (9 – 4 = 5 per cent) or 10 per cent of $2 or $0.20. Thus the company could expect to raise funds at $2.20 per note, paying an annual coupon of $0.20 convertible into one ordinary share. For venture capital funding each company will have different needs and the funding estimates will always be wrong. The essence of venture capital is to raise funds in tranches. The problem with convertible notes is that they deter the financiers for the next round. Debt lenders regard convertible notes as debt and refuse to lend because the gearing ratio will be too high or the interest cover will be too low. On the other hand, equity investors will immediately convert the convertible note to equity, and calculate the earnings per share post-dilution. The equity investors will usually think the convertible noteholders have too sweet a deal and demand a lower price. But the convertible notes can be useful in leveraged buy-outs where later fundraisings are not envisaged.
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SUBORDINATED DEBT/OPTIONS The subordinated debt/option combination suffers from the same deficiencies as the convertible note. Major shareholders typically use subordinated debt for fiduciary or other reasons when they do not want or need to take any more equity as an asset but only want to have debt. A good example would be a venture capitalist already at the 50 per cent ownership level of a company needing to inject further funds into an investment. However, company options can be a most useful form of incentive for both investors and entrepreneurs. A company option is the option to take up (buy) a new share from a company at some future date at a fixed price known as an exercise or strike price. Options are attractive to investors as an equity ‘sweetener’. The market typically values long-dated options higher than their worth when calculated by the mathematical formulas. Thus a company can often obtain equity by attaching to a new issue of shares either an option or part of an option as a sweetener. The legal time limit for options is five years. Options should not be free but should be used to raise money. Company options are useful to motivate entrepreneurs and the employees. Options can be tied to the performance of a company. A typical employee share scheme allows the company to issue between 5 and 10 per cent of shares to employees. By issuing options tied to profit performance, investors achieve both the profits to repay their capital and a more equitable split between the investor and entrepreneurs. A variation on this theme is to use piggy-back options. A second series of options are attached to an initial series, typically at a strike price 50 to 100 per cent higher than the strike price of the first set. The issue of the second set occurs upon the exercise of the first options and subscription to the new shares.
PREFERENCE SHARES Because of the difficulties outlined above, the most popular form of venture capital financing is the preference share. Preference
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shares rank above ordinary shares for claims on assets, earnings and dividends, but below creditors and lenders. Preference shares usually have a fixed dividend rate attached, unless they are participating preference shares, in which case they may also participate in ordinary dividend distributions. Venture capital investors consider convertible redeemable preference shares as an excellent instrument. If there is success, the ability to convert to ordinary shares means investors may participate in any public listing. In the event of failure, the investors take preference over entrepreneurs. If the investment becomes a ‘living dead’, with moderate but insufficient earnings to list, investors can redeem their shares and recover their original capital. To motivate entrepreneurs to achieve a public listing, venture capitalists use financial incentives. One technique is to attach a high preference dividend to the shares after a period of, say, four years, so that if listing does not happen the company’s profit will all go to the investors. Even more attractive to investors is to make the dividend payments cumulative—if a preference dividend payment is missed, the dividend accumulates and is paid when the company has sufficient profits. Another method is for the investors to have attached to their shares a put option to the entrepreneur or have an enforceable company buy-back. The company options discussed earlier were call options (i.e. the holder has the right to buy stock in the future at a fixed price). Put options give the holder the right to sell shares at a certain price. Buyers of put options treat them as an insurance policy. Sellers of put options believe the company value is going to rise continuously, which a priori is what entrepreneurs believe. Another structuring technique is to divide the investment into two or more separate segments. For simplicity, assume the entrepreneurs have the option to redeem one-half of the investment at twice the entry price and that the second half is redeemable only by the investors. The entrepreneurs will then try to generate sufficient profits to redeem the first segment, as it will increase their ownership percentage. For example, say
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a company has 20 000 shares on issue and it raises $1 million by the issue of 10 000 ‘A’ class shares and 10 000 ‘B’ class shares at an issue price of $50 per share. The redemption price of the ‘A’ class share is $100. If the entrepreneurs then have the company redeem the ‘A’ class preference shares, their ownership will move from 50 per cent to 67 per cent. The advantage of preference shares, particularly if they are convertible, is that corporate financiers regard them as equity rather than debt. This means entrepreneurs can then raise debt finance and obtain government grants, where a common requirement is that any grant given be matched dollar for dollar with equity. For start-ups there is often a need for staged funding, with the injection of further funds depending on the results of the previous stage. A fast-growing company may be compared to a mining start-up where, say, $1 million is wanted for a broad exploration of a claim. If a strike occurs, a further $2 million is raised for precise definition of the ore body and project planning. If the body proves suitable for drilling, then $7 million will be needed over two years to start production. If stages I or II produce negative results, the funding stops. The structure often adopted for start-ups is partly-paid or contributing shares. In the example above, the company could issue 10 million partly-paid $1 shares in annual tranches of 10 cents, 20 cents, 35 cents, and 35 cents. In a public limited liability company the shareholder must pay the calls, so financiers invented no liability (NL) companies, whereby shareholders do not need to pay any uncalled amounts. Partly-paid shares are also a way of providing ownership to entrepreneurs. The partly-paid shares are often entitled to full dividends, but voting power depends on the amount paid on the shares. As the company grows and is successful, entrepreneurs and their employees use the dividends to pay out the remainder of their contribution. The problem with partly-paids is that in the event of liquidation the remainder of the unpaid capital could be called up. The way around that problem is to have the partly-paids held by a $2 company that can default.
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Earnouts, put options and redemption tied to profit performance are all important structuring techniques and the investor should use them to the fullest extent. Arthur Lipper, in his excellent book Investing in Private Companies, quoted a typical US guideline whereby if investors put up all the money they should get 100 per cent of the equity. The stake the entrepreneurs ultimately own depends on the speed at which they pay back the investment. Repayment in one year means the entrepreneurs get 80 per cent, two years, 60 per cent, three or more years, 40 per cent. Earnout structures should relate to market conditions and any formula should be tied to market conditions. A valuation based on a P/E of 5 would have appeared low in 1997 but reasonable in 2001. Earnouts may be structured by either the redemption of preference shares or the issue of new contributing shares. Astute entrepreneurs sometimes reverse the earnout mechanism to a giveback. In this structure, if the entrepreneurs fail to perform they give up equity. The problem with an equity giveback is that the investors may end up owning more of a lemon. As indicated in Chapter 16 on negotiations, the documents used in venture capital funding are the letter of intent or term sheet, and the shareholders’ agreement. The term sheet should contain the structure of the deal and a summary of key clauses. The key clauses in the term sheet for venture capitalists, besides the usual warranties and covenants, are: • • • • • •
key man insurance; right of co-sale if the entrepreneur obtains a buyer for all or some of his or her stock; pre-emptive right of first refusal on the issue of any new shares; agreed exit mechanism; board seat and right to monthly reports and cash flows; remedies in the event of non-compliance and impending liquidation.
There are some other clauses that are matters of debate. One important issue is employee contracts. Experience has shown
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that employee contracts favour employees and seldom benefit the company. Many venture capitalists would recommend against signing service agreements. A service contract is useful if the buyer of a company wants the previous owner to stay around and run the company for one to two years while the buyer learns about the business. Often, however, the training period is shortened by mutual consent. Another important topic is the issue of guarantees. One description of a guarantor is a fool with a pen in hand. While many people regard the secret of venture capital as picking winners, the essence is more one of limiting losses. Venture capitalists should be prepared to lose all the capital they have invested in a company. They should not be required to lose more. It is better to put up the whole amount of risk capital as equity. Similarly, entrepreneurs often request a debt/equity mix. Venture capitalists should regard all the funds they provide as risk money. Other parties should provide debt funding. If venture capitalists must provide debt, it should be as a convertible note or have call options attached. Anti-dilution provisions are another common subject of negotiation. These provisions prevent the dilution of a shareholder’s stake even if further funding is required. Investors should avoid these like the plague, especially if they are to be granted to an entrepreneur. In venture capital deals where there will be several rounds of funding, seed investors should remember such clauses will be a big negative to future investors because such clauses cause the dilution effect to fall on the remaining parties. Future investors would have to seriously doubt the business acumen of any individual who would agree to such a clause. Moreover, because future investors will demand a similar clause, not only is it a special slice of the pie that cannot shrink; over time the slice begins to expand! On the other hand a clause frequently required by venture capitalists is down-round protection. This clause says that if the next round of venture funding is at a lower share price, investors in the previous round will have bonus shares issued so that the previous fundraising will be at the new price. This
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means in the event of a down round the VC for that round will not have to make a write-down in its portfolio. Entrepreneurs should insist, however, that down rounds do not last more than one round. A clause most investors should consider including in a shareholders’ agreement is the Mexican stand-off, or call/put clause, especially when there are a few parties with roughly equal ownership. Investors may be given the right to buy out the other parties. However, under a Mexican stand-off, the other parties have the right to turn around and buy the offerer’s interest at the same price. As the parties may not have similar wealth, often a long offer period is imposed (about six to nine months) to allow the less wealthy party to raise finance. The reason this clause is useful is that it keeps all parties honest. Entrepreneurs who are close to a business may realise the company is going to suddenly increase in value. They may try to buy out their present investors, conveniently forgetting the importance of their original contribution. Such a clause in the shareholders’ agreement will always make one party stop and think before offering too low a value. Finally, investors in a private company transaction must never allow themselves to be hurried. It is all too easy to buy; it is far harder to sell. When negotiating the shareholders’ agreement it is worth remembering that whoever controls the documentation is in the more powerful position. Everyone says a contract, once signed, should go into the drawer and only be pulled out if something goes wrong. The investor should remind himself that Murphy was a venture capitalist. Something will go wrong and the agreements, constitution and other documents will appear. Investors need to ensure, and here lawyers are essential, that their interests are protected if something goes amiss. No investor should ever hand over a cheque unless he or she has cosigned a shareholders’ agreement with the entrepreneur, which both the investor’s lawyers and the investor have agreed is a satisfactory protection of the investor’s interests. In the USA lawsuits between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists are common. Supposedly New South Wales ranks second
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to Orange County, California in terms of litigation. Accordingly, it is likely that VC lawsuits will become more common in Australia. There has already been one case heard against a venture capitalist in New South Wales over purported misleading and deceptive conduct. The entrepreneur alleged that the venture capitalist during eight months of protracted and exclusive negotiations continually made assertions that the financing would be forthcoming. In the end the financing did not eventuate and the entrepreneur alleged that if the Australian VC had not engaged in misleading conduct he would have closed down his local operations and headed for the USA and tried to attract American venture capital. On the specific facts of the case the court did not find the conduct of the venture capitalist sufficiently misleading or deceptive. Nor did the court find it proven that the entrepreneur would have achieved a successful US capital-raising strategy. However, the court left it open for other cases, where it could be shown that a clear link existed between investor misconduct and investee loss of opportunity, for entrepreneurs to enter a claim for damages. In this case the venture capitalist allegedly shifted from no tranches to eventually multiple tranches, and went from not requiring the entrepreneur to put more hurt money in to requiring a significant infusion of personal capital. The court did find in favour of the entrepreneur for approximately $400 000 for damages incurred in continuing to operate the business when he would have walked away from the investment and shut it down. A common suit in the USA is for a rejected entrepreneur to sue a venture capitalist for breach of confidentiality when the venture capitalist later invests in a similar business. One such case has already started in Australia. Investors and portfolio companies should always operate within a cloak of confidentiality. If a non-disclosure agreement is signed it must contain a termination date. A new form of venture litigation that has started in the USA is based on tortious interference. A person who unjustifiably interferes with the contract of another is guilty of wrongdoing.
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The protection of the law is not limited only to those contracts already made, but also protects a person’s interest in a reasonable expectation of economic gain. In one case a business sued a VC firm for tortious interference after one of its portfolio companies poached a specific team of experts from the business. The logic was that the VC has aided the portfolio company in the poaching and, having the deepest pockets, the VC was a prime target for the lawsuit. Another example would be when one venture capitalist offered, say, a role in a syndicate, goes ahead and does the transaction on its own. Another case would be if the venture capitalist, after signing confidentiality agreements, contacts the other members of the syndicate and tries to beat down the price.
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20
Post-investment activities
Lead venture capitalists usually take a board seat upon completion of the investment. The contribution of venture capitalists may be overstated, usually by venture capitalists themselves, especially when they make a successful investment. The Greeks best summarised the attitude when they said, ‘Victory has many fathers but defeat is an orphan.’ In 1997 Coopers & Lybrand Australia produced a report entitled The Economic Impact of Venture Capital that was generated from a 311-company (104-response) survey. The report showed that average staff numbers of VC-backed companies increased by 20 per cent a year between 1992 and 1996 compared to 2 per cent for the top 100 Australian companies. Average sales increased by 42 per cent per year and exports by 27 per cent per year. Besides the provision of finance, these VCbacked companies stated that the venture capital investor had made a major contribution to their business (see Table 20.1). The emphasis on financial management is not surprising, given that venture capitalists are essentially financial intermediaries. Venture capital is high-risk capital, typically in the form of equity, directed towards high rates of return. Venture capitalists invest in the future earnings potential of a business with little security and seek their return in the form of capital gain rather than through dividends. The management of the businesses in which they invest usually has limited financial skills; venture capitalists provide a
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Table 20.1
Venture capitalists’ non-financial support
Area Sounding board for ideas Advising on corporate strategy and direction Financial advice Challenging the status quo Contacts/market information Management recruitment Marketing strategy
% reporting major contribution 65 58 48 40 33 13 13
level of experience that previously was only available to clients of merchant banks and stockbrokers. Indeed, it is the combination of entrepreneurs’ business skills and venture capitalists’ financial skills that provides much of the added value. Whether board representation is a management support activity or a perk of the job is arguable. It has been my experience that when a board seat is offered in a high-growth company which has had a significant injection of equity, the queue of people willing to make the noble sacrifice of serving as a director is longer than one might expect. Venture capitalists who sit on investee boards must be prudent. They must be careful not to be perceived as someone who will override their obligations as board members in favour of the interests of their venture firms. They need to disclose potential conflicts and, if necessary, remove themselves. Venture capitalists and portfolio companies should always operate within a cloak of confidentiality and keep the information they find out about one another’s operations to themselves unless authorised to release it to the broader business community. Should it transpire that a VC unwittingly or intentionally released specific intellectual property that was subsequently received by a competitor and used to the portfolio company’s disadvantage, then the VC has not only harmed the investment, but is also exposed to a lawsuit for damages. One of the better definitions of the venture capitalist’s role appeared in Peter Drucker’s stimulating book Innovation and
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Entrepreneurship. He defined the three key elements supplied by venture capitalists as follows: 1 2 3
focus on the strategic plan; focus on the people; focus on the financial needs of the company.
FOCUS ON STRATEGIC PLAN Businesses succeed on the whole not because the executives come up with the perfect plan, but because they decide on one course of action based on sound commercial principles. The management then executes the plan without distracting itself with outside activities. McKinsey and Co. is probably the world’s most reputable strategic management consultancy. They deal regularly with the chief executives of the largest private and public organisations. The principal of a McKinsey office was once asked for the secret of its success. He replied that it was a matter of first establishing with the chief executive of the client organisation what were the three most important tasks for the next twelve months. The second step was to convince the chief executive not to spend any time on anything else. The final step was to reinforce the advice by charging a fee of $100 000 plus. Entrepreneurs as a general rule are energetic people and easily distracted. Venture capitalists need to ensure that a strategic plan is formally produced every year. It need not be a long document and much of the content will be repeated year after year. Four of the most useful tasks a venture capitalist can perform for an investee business are: 1 2 3 4
defining what business the company is in; developing a Porter analysis for the company and industry; redefining the mission statement; setting just three corporate objectives for the following twelve months.
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Strategic plans should be formulated every year as part of the budgeting process and after face-to-face contact with the more important customers. The role of venture capitalists is to ensure that this task is done and then followed through. The Romans used to place a slave behind a successful general as he was riding on a chariot through the city in a triumphal procession. The slave would continually whisper in the ear of the general, ‘Remember you are a mortal.’ In the same way, venture capitalists should repeatedly be whispering in the ear of the entrepreneur, ‘Remember the strategic plan—are you increasing the return to yourself and your shareholders?’ A big advantage of personal computers is that they make it easy to update last year’s plan. Many entrepreneurs fail to realise that the fundraising never stops. The secret is to put the fundraising on a systematic, rather than ad hoc, basis. A fundamental tool for success is an up-to-date formal business plan stored on a word processor. One of the most successful fundraisers I know has the technique refined exquisitely. He only accepts equity injections in $500 000–$750 000 tranches and each new tranche must be at a share price 50 per cent higher than the last. When approached by an investor he produces a new plan from the word processor with the appropriate figures updated. Where venture capitalists can be of significant help is in acting as a devil’s advocate about the business plan. Active venture capitalists probably see three or four business plans a week. After a time they develop a feel for a likelihood of success. In this way they compensate for a weakness of the smaller organisation—the lack of management depth. Large organisations have the management resources available to examine potential concepts thoroughly before making a decision. Weaknesses are rooted out and usually non-viable concepts are rejected. Major failures rarely occur; their scarcity accounts for the publicity received when they do.
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FOCUS ON THE PEOPLE One golden rule of venture capital is that, given the choice between an ‘A’ class product with ‘B’ class people, or a ‘B’ class product with ‘A’ class people, one should choose the latter. Surveys of venture capitalists again and again report the most common reason for rejection of a business plan was inadequate management. This can range from low leadership potential in the lead entrepreneur or management team, to lack of industry experience, poor track record of the entrepreneur or management team, poor marketing/sales capabilities in the team, to poor organisation/administration capabilities in the team. Thus it is unusual to see recruitment ranked so low as a management support activity in the Coopers & Lybrand survey. Drucker makes focusing on people a key task for venture capitalists. Much of the venture capitalist’s job consists of meetings and interviews with a variety of people. They can act either as a screener or as a second opinion before hiring of key staff. It is a principle of high-growth companies that they should over-hire. Over-hiring means the companies must recruit people who can handle more complex and sophisticated roles in three to four years’ time. Most important of all, the five key positions in the company, namely the general manager, the chief marketing officer, the chief financial officer, the chief operations/ technical officer and the chief legal officer, must be filled with able executives. The best executives are those who have had profit-centre experience with a division of a multinational company. Small start-up companies often lack status. A venture capitalist with a high profile can be helpful in supplying credibility for such a small company. An established name serves to reassure both the recruiting agents and potential recruits. Entrepreneurs should remember it is not how much money is invested but who is investing that is often more important.
FOCUS ON THE FINANCIAL NEEDS OF THE COMPANY Here venture capitalists can be of particular value in ensuring proper monthly accounting records are kept, monthly cash flow
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forecasts and annual budgets are prepared, and assisting in further rounds of funding. Besides the actual investment made, venture capitalists must help the company source extra funds and lines of credit. Venture capitalists must dedicate some time to dealing with the bankers of the company. They should be able to arrange debt financing to act as bridging between rounds of equity. Venture capitalists can also help with the public listing. The procedures of underwriting, choosing a broker, preparing a prospectus and carrying out Australian Securities Commission (ASC) and Stock Exchange negotiations are unfamiliar to entrepreneurs and typically only done once, while venture capitalists generally have experience of several listings. One of the keys to the game is understanding that the company, if successful and growing, will need funds continuously and that this should be raised by successive rounds of equity. In Silicon Valley the companies have this process down to an art form and the chief financial officer, as soon as he or she has raised one round, immediately starts organising the next. Funds are traditionally raised on an annual basis. The intelligent entrepreneur uses the annual fundraising process to maintain control by playing a game of divide and conquer among the investors. A famous exponent is Jimmy Treybig of Tandem Computers. In 1985 I spent two weeks in the USA visiting a number of successful venture capitalists. I could not understand how about ten of the funds each had 3 per cent of Tandem. What had happened was that the early venture capitalists that had taken, say, 15 per cent, had been diluted by later raisings and the last purchasers had been able to buy only 2–3 per cent of the company. Entrepreneurs will often ask the initial venture capitalist to make a follow-on investment. The question often becomes one of either injecting new funds or pulling the plug. As a rule, if venture capitalists cannot attract a new party to co-invest in the next round, they themselves should not invest. This is another example of how syndication acts as an independent means of setting a valuation.
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Besides raising cash, venture capitalists can also be of help in saving cash. It is fundamental to the success of a company that a culture of conserving cash prevails. One maxim is ‘lease the pencils’. Three-monthly cash forecasts must be prepared every month, and debtors and stock watched closely. Venture capitalists should take an active role in preparation of cash forecasts, and in asset and liability management. The other key financial role of venture capitalists is in introducing ratio analysis. ‘Sell more’ and ‘Keep costs down’ are useless statements. Aiming at $200 000 sales per employee and keeping overheads below 20 per cent of turnover, just as your competitors do, are measurable objectives. Good venture capitalists should practise what they preach and prepare a monthly monitoring sheet, as shown in Appendix B. This is a simple spreadsheet that shows monthly actuals for income, balance sheet items, cash flow and budgets. A number of key ratios are also calculated, along with the monthly breakeven point. Using a spreadsheet package makes this an easy task. Moreover, if the package has a graphics capability it is easy to produce graphs for demonstrations at board meetings. Venture capitalists perform several other functions. The legal protection of intellectual property is a difficult area, unfamiliar to many lawyers and often overlooked by small business. Licensing agreements, patents, trademarks, and so on are expensive to arrange and venture capitalists could help save on legal costs and prevent costly mistakes. A key task is ensuring that all consultants who act for the company sign consulting agreements which pass to the company the title for all inventions and designs made while employed by the company. Venture capitalists can also provide support in sales presentations to key suppliers and clients. However, if they can fulfil the role of emphasising the plan, the people and the finance, their contribution to the success of a business will be both significant and satisfying.
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21
Exit mechanisms
Ultimately venture capital investors must look to exit from their investment. In this chapter we examine in detail three possible exit mechanisms: public listing, selling out to a third party and re-leveraging. We assume the investor has built into the shareholders’ agreement and share structure the fourth mechanism, which is redemption of original capital. Finally, we consider some other capital recovery strategies. As indicated in Chapter 19, although at the beginning both parties may have sought public listing as an objective, the company may not grow to the size expected because the market is not of the size projected. The company will now join what venture capitalists call the ‘living dead’. Suppose that after five years the company is producing $300 000 a year in after-tax profits and that the venture capitalists had earlier bought onethird for $1 million. They would be looking at a yield of 10 per cent and the entrepreneur would be looking at $200 000 fully franked income. While this is a reasonable return it is inadequate to cover other losses in the venture capital portfolio. The investors are locked in with nowhere to go. If, however, the investors have put into the shareholders’ agreement a nodividend policy and forced redemption of investors’ capital, they can at least get their capital back and go play the game somewhere else.
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PUBLIC LISTING In this section we shall examine the ways a company can go public. There are effectively two methods: the public offering and the backdoor listing. We will not try to describe them all in detail but will point out some of the key decisions. The key to the public listing is the prospectus. Promoters now have to prepare and register a prospectus with the Australian Securities Commission (ASC) which in turn must register it in fourteen days or reject it for non-compliance. A prospectus must contain all information that investors and their professional advisers reasonably require and reasonably expect to find in a prospectus for the purpose of making an informed assessment of assets and liabilities; financial position; profits and losses; prospects; and rights attaching to the securities. If the prospectus is found to contain errors or misrepresentations, the promoters face both criminal and civil liabilities, which are quite severe. The net of liability includes not only the company and directors but also those entities which previously could exclude themselves, such as promoters, stockbrokers, underwriters, auditors, bankers, solicitors, professional advisers and experts. The idea is that these individuals will now pre-vet the prospectus and the ASC registration should just be a rubber stamp.
Public offering One of the more unpleasant aspects of capitalism has been the history of wheeler-dealers raising funds from the public for various projects. The net result has been to convert the capital of the investors into income for the wheeler-dealers. The regulatory authorities in most countries have introduced laws to ensure that public offerings of shares are accompanied by a document known as a prospectus. This document should contain sufficient, adequate and reliable information to allow the investor to judge the present financial condition of the company and its potential. The various people and parties
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involved in preparing a prospectus have duties of disclosure and of care. In Australia, the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) has its own listing rules and regulations. These are the rules covering the number of shareholders, profit history, types of shares allowed, and so on. The minimum spread of shareholders is 500 persons and each must be holding a share parcel to the value of at least $2000. This imposes a minimum capitalisation of $1 million on the company. In addition the company must satisfy the profit or asset tests. For the profit test the company must have had a pre-income tax aggregated operating profit of at least $1 million over the past three full financial years. It must have had unqualified audited accounts for three full financial years. It must have been in the same predominant business activity for a minimum of three full financial years. Finally, the company must have had a pre-income tax operating profit of at least $400 000 for the twelve months prior to the lodging of a prospectus. This is exactly the type of company the venture capitalists and entrepreneurs should be trying to build. The asset test is typically used in two cases, the investment fund and the start-up business. The investment fund requirements are fairly simple. The fund must have net tangible assets of at least $15 million after deducting the costs of fundraising, unless it is a pooled development fund, in which case the net tangible assets requirement is reduced to $2 million after deducting the costs of fundraising. A start-up business must have net tangible assets of at least $2 million after deducting the costs of fundraising, or a market capitalisation of at least $10 million. After the fundraising, less than half of the total tangible assets (after raising any funds) must be cash or in a form readily convertible to cash. If half or more of the entity’s total tangible assets (after raising any funds) are in cash or in a form readily convertible to cash, then the prospectus or information memorandum must have clearly stated business objectives and include an expenditure program to meet the 50 per cent cash maximum rule. Say, for example, a start-up company raises $2.3 million, and the cost of its
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capital raising is $300 000, the ASX would normally require it to have commitments for an additional $850 000 (which, with the $300 000, is half the $2.3 million raised). Note that the ASX would normally not treat inventories and receivables as readily convertible to cash. On the other hand, it may comfort those about to start the initial public offering (IPO) route to remember that others have trodden the path before. As can be seen from Figure 21.1, there were 207 IPOs in the eighteen months beginning 1 January, 2000 in which some $5.2 billion was raised. What the diagram shows is that 50 per cent of the companies raised less than $8 million, while the average amount raised was $25 million. The conventional wisdom is that there must be ‘free float’ of $15 million (capital raised plus shares sold into the issue). This chart shows that the conventional wisdom is defied around two-thirds of the time. What it does reflect is the demand for IPOs by the hundred or so
600
500
Number of IPOs 207 Funds raised in total $5163m Average size $24.94m Medium size $8.00m
400
300
200
100
0 7
13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151 157 163 169 175 181 187 193 199 205
Figure 21.1
Funds raised in Australian IPOs 1/1/2000 to 30/6/2001
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operating brokers. This demand gives venture capitalists the opportunity to exit. The two problems with IPOs are cost and timing. Typically, a float costs between $500 000 and $750 000. To make it worthwhile a company should be seeking to raise at least $10 million cash. What is called the IPO window can open and close depending on the financial appetite of investors. For example, in Australia in the six months starting 1 January 2000 there were 76 IPOs, but in the six months starting 1 January 2001 there were only 38. There is also a seasonality in IPOs caused by the need for three years of audits. As most companies end their annual accounting period on 30 June, most firms aim to list September to November. Even in the period July–December 2000 when market conditions were worsening there were 93 IPOs. As has been stated several times, the goal of both the entrepreneur and venture capitalists is a public listing to achieve the greatest capital gain. Consequently, the company should have already appointed reputable auditors and solicitors. The first critical step after deciding to float the company is to appoint an underwriter. Underwriters guarantee that the funds required will be raised at a specific time and under specific terms. The underwriter must take up the balance, referred to as the shortfall, of any amount sought and not raised. Appointing an underwriter is most important and should not be left to chance or personal contact. As in most purchase decisions, the buyer should contact at least three underwriters and ask why the company should choose one over the others. The first criterion of choice is the after-market support the underwriter can provide. Listing is not just a means of raising money or profile. It also provides negotiability for stock. If the underwriter cannot convince the entrepreneur that it will provide after-market support by promoting the company to the investing institutions and private clients, the entrepreneur should look elsewhere. Therefore it is probably better to ensure that the underwriter is a stockbroker or that a stockbroker is intimately involved. To measure the after-market support, ask
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the underwriter to provide the price and volume history graphs since listing of the last three stocks it has underwritten. The underwriter should price the issue at 15–20 per cent under the expected market price to ensure after-market support. These profits are known as ‘stag’ profits, in contrast to the bulls and bears of the stock market. If the price falls after the issue, one may assume the underwriter has lost credibility in the market. Besides the price–volume graphs, the company should ask to see the latest three prospectuses and ask which institutions subscribed to the issues. This will provide some measure of how the market views the underwriter. The stockbroking industry has fairly high staff turnover and institutions tend to follow individuals. It is also necessary to establish which representative of the underwriter is going to be advising on the issue and what his or her experience is. IPOs are not difficult, as the listing figures above attest, but there are some horror stories of companies failing to list on schedule owing to oversight caused by lack of experience, and of thousands of copies of prospectuses being shredded. Another criterion is the financial capacity of the underwriter and its ability to meet a shortfall. In times of boom, capital strength is overlooked, but when there is a correction it becomes important. It is necessary to understand that underwriting is risky business. While the fees appear high compared to the work done, every so often an issue takes a bath and the shortfall is large. The cash flow in underwriting consists of a stream of reasonable profits interspersed with the occasional large loss. All underwriters understand this problem; they try to delay signing the underwriting agreement as long as possible and insert as many escape clauses as they can. If there is a market correction but the expected shortfall is a small part of its capital base, it is likely that the underwriter will still go ahead. If, however, the shortfall is a large part of its capital base, the underwriter will pull out of the agreement. The company has limited redress; suing an underwriter will not gain the support it will ultimately want from the financial community.
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Finally, the company should try to establish the fee structure and terms of the issue. Typical fees, including brokerage, range from 3 to 5 per cent but they can go higher for speculative issues. Once the underwriter has been chosen, work can commence. The underwriter should immediately prepare a timetable and a list of the parties involved. The new rules mean that with focused effort an IPO can take about three months. Australia is perhaps the fastest and least expensive country in the world to achieve a public listing. This is one reason for the smaller than expected LBO industry in this country. Parent companies find it faster to list a division than to sell it to either a financier or another business. The company must appoint an executive responsible for the various documents and the roadshow presentation. This is usually the financial director or the company secretary. The company will need to draft the marketing part of the prospectus. It will need to ensure the necessary board resolutions and shareholders’ meetings occur. The investigating accountants must complete their report on time. As a full audit must be completed no more than six months prior to listing, many companies list in the third quarter of the calendar year following the 30 June close. The company should appoint someone to maintain the share register. Finally, the executive responsible must organise the preparation for the roadshow. This refers to the visits to and by institutional investors and major private clients at the time of selling the issue, which is after registration of the prospectus and before listing. A key IPO decision is the pricing and structure of the issue. Each IPO is different. The typical price for shares has ranged from $0.20 to $1. In the USA, however, under the NASDAQ rules, shares that trade under $1.00 for three months are delisted. This has led to an American perception that a company is ‘tainted’ if its share price is below $1. This can be deleterious to the company if it is seeking overseas clients or distributors. Accordingly, some companies are now looking to list at prices above $1. VeCommerce, an Australianlisted company that was developing applications in natural speech language recognition, for example, carried out a 10:1
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consolidation so that its share price would be above the $1 psychological level. Another important factor is the free float. This refers to the amount of shares freely available at the time of listing. Typically, brokers want a minimum of $15 million. This often means that the venture capitalists must sell some of their shares. Because an IPO is new, exciting and technically fascinating, many companies fail to use it as a marketing weapon. The prospectus can be a most useful sales aid, yet it is surprising how many prospectuses fail to contain such simple details as the locations and telephone numbers of the company’s branch offices. Moreover, the executives should make sure they reserve sufficient shares for distribution to clients and suppliers. Stockbrokers do not just do underwritings for the fee income. If the company is successful and a stockbroker becomes known as the broker for the stock it will earn far more in commissions. Even more important, if it can provide stag profits for its clients it will generate loyalty for new deals. Newly listed companies should also use the loyalty created by stag profits by placing shares among their clients, employees and suppliers.
Backdoor listings One of the benefits of capitalism is that failed companies eventually lose their value and resources are allocated elsewhere. On every stock exchange there are listed companies which have lost their original means of producing profits and have slowly lost all value. What remains is a shell. The present shareholders have their scrip at the bottom of a drawer or on the wall. Listing by the back door consists first of buying up to 19.9 per cent of the shell in order not to breach the takeover provisions of the Corporations Code. A shareholders’ meeting is held to allow a consolidation of capital of the shell company so that the net tangible assets per share is lifted to something meaningful. On completion of the consolidation, the shell company then issues as consideration a sufficient number of new shares in exchange for all the shares of the target company. The new issue requires
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majority approval of the shareholders other than the acquirer and his or her associates. Usually the incumbent shareholders are so happy to see something positive finally happening to the company that they approve the resolutions with alacrity. To ensure the consideration is fair and reasonable the authorities require an independent expert’s valuation of the acquired company. A backdoor listing is a form of reverse takeover in which a smaller company by issuing shares takes over a larger company. Typical shells have a market capitalisation of $300 000 or less and the acquired companies will be valued at $5 million upwards. The IPO is the king hit in venture capital. The current Australian financial environment favours the IPO as an exit more than the USA does. Not only is the exit price lower (US companies typically require a US$5 million earnings figure to obtain institutional support) but the escrow provisions in Australia are less stringent. In Australia pre-IPO shareholders typically have their shares held in escrow for a year. In the USA they may only dribble on to the market 1 per cent of their holding every quarter. Besides timing, costs and escrow, another problem is the blockbuster float like Telstra. This float, which raised $8.5 billion out of a total $12.3 billion raised for the year, drained interest away from other floats during its fundraising period.
SELLING OUT TO A THIRD PARTY AND RE-LEVERAGING Another alternative to the IPO is selling out to a third party. As Table 21.1 at the end this chapter shows, acquisition occurs 2.5 times more often than the IPO as a form of exit. Large companies, particularly those with mature products and steady cash flows, prefer to buy profitable companies rather than build up businesses from nothing. A mature listed company, in order to maintain its stock price, must show steady growth in earnings. Starting new entities is expensive, especially if management uses equity to fund the start-up. On the other hand, buying an
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already operating and profitable company entails less risk. Moreover, the purchase can increase earnings per share if the purchase is done by debt and the pre-tax profit of the business is greater than the interest costs. Even if the purchase is financed with shares, provided the P/E of the purchase is less than the P/E of the acquiring company the earnings per share of the acquiring company will increase. The other acquisition method becoming increasingly common is the leveraged buy-out. While fast-growth companies are not typically LBO targets, if the business growth has topped and expected growth is declining, the company may well be a candidate. The founders and incumbent venture capitalists may agree that a re-leveraging of the company is the best form of exit. For example, Macquarie Investment Trust (MIT) exited Neverfail SpringWater via a specific buyback of MIT shares funded by bank debt. Timing the acquisition of an investee company is as important as timing an IPO. The investee company should still have potential for growth, so it is always better to sell a business on the rise rather than one that has peaked or where the market has become too competitive. An enterprise that has proven its technology platform in Australia and which has secured market position in Australia and Asia is particularly attractive to US and European multinationals looking both to move into Asia and seeking new products to take into the USA and Europe. This is sometimes called a ‘third-leg’ acquisition. Other reasons that a company may wish to acquire an investee company include: • • • •
acquiring people, skills or intellectual property (particularly likely in the IT and high-technology sectors); ability to integrate the investee business into other operations; desire to inject new life into the business through different management, investment or processes; a competitor desiring to increase market share and gain critical mass (industry rationalisations can be very profitable);
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customers wishing to move upstream in the supply chain to ensure supply and reduce costs; suppliers moving downstream wishing to control market share.
However, while acquisitions should make strategic sense it is well to remember that people buy companies. There is always emotional content in any company purchase. The intangibles are generally more important than the tangibles. Analyses have shown that some 80 per cent of acquisitions perform poorly, consequently the buyer must be assured that profits and gross margins will continue to grow. Buyers gain confidence from a healthy backlog of orders and proposals. Market timing is another critical issue. The first is the market for the company’s products or services—is it thriving and growing? The second aspect is the market for similar types of businesses. An active and bullish stock market will tend to increase both merger activity and acquisition prices. The final marketing stage is to consider the time of year. If the business is seasonal, you will be much more confident discussing the company’s prospects when the management accounts have shown a solid six months of profit. For example, the corporate financing activity in Neverfail Spring Water always occurred in March and April after the strong summer results. Acquisitions were always targeted in August and September when the target companies would have weak cash flows and reserves. Many acquisitions are based on gaining the management team. Indeed, I have seen more than one acquisition justified solely on the cost and time of recruiting a similar management team. Accordingly, contracts and compensation plans must be in place to ensure an orderly changeover. One technique it to give management options so that if the transaction goes ahead they will make serious money. The private company should try to create a market by talking to more than one buyer. Far too often a business accepts the first offer. By creating a market, the shareholders will have a
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better chance of obtaining a fair and reasonable price. It is best to approach several buyers simultaneously, inviting potential bidders to make offers for the business on the basis of the selling memorandum. A clear-cut timetable is then imposed, giving a period for negotiations and a deadline by which offers (subject to contract) must be received. It is probably best to use an agent, particularly ones with overseas connections and the technology to ensure as wide as possible a market is developed. Selling a business is similar to selling a house. Real estate agents would rather get a smaller fee on a fire sale than no fee at all. A good method of obtaining fair value is to ladder the fee. For example, if you think your company is worth $10 million, say you will pay the agent 0.5 per cent for the first $10 million, 3 per cent for the next $5 million and 30 per cent for any amounts received over $15 million. Using a laddered fee can do wonders for the ‘independent valuation’ your expert will provide when you begin negotiations. Brokers have a difficult problem because they earn by pure commission and such deals can take nine months to consummate. Many brokers will ask for an up-front fee; a laddered fee should enable entrepreneurs to persuade brokers that they should receive commissions only for success. Another tactic is to make sure the recurring profits are as high as possible. If the company has been supporting a lossmaking branch it should close the branch. Long-term investments in areas such as new computer systems or new product development should be deferred. All interrelated activities such as inter-company loans should be cleared up. Accounts should be audited at least three years prior to the sale and physical stocktakes done regularly. Surplus cash should not be left in the company. The company should take out options on renewing any leases. Many businesses lose much of their value if their lease is about to run out and is not renewable. Any assets in the business that are not of real use should be disposed of. As many large companies like to have property on the balance sheet, it may pay to sell the property and rent it back under an arrangement that will continue when the business is sold.
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A problem with a company sale is confidentiality. If information about a potential sale leaks out, employees and customers may begin to get nervous and competitors may start spreading rumours about the financial stability of the company. Just as the venture capital investor is aware that the structure of the deal is as important as the valuation, so when selling a company the terms may be more important than the price. A key determinant in any sale is the effect of tax, and professional advice should be sought before entering the sale process. Tax considerations usually determine whether the sale consists of either assets or shares. Stamp duty has been removed from shares and provided the sale follows the guidelines the sale of a business for shares should not trigger any tax liability. As the stamp duty for the sale of assets may be as high as 5.5 per cent, it is now becoming more common to sell shares. In consideration the sellers generally want cash, although venture capital companies may be more comfortable with shares. Often consideration can be a mixture of shares and cash and the vendors may receive different proportions. One benefit often proposed for asset sales is that the acquiring company does not take over the liabilities of the acquisition. While this is true, an asset acquirer will still need to negotiate with clients, suppliers and employees. Often clauses are inserted in distribution and maintenance agreements that allow termination if there is a change of ownership, but these are rarely enforced. A typical request by purchasers, especially if the deal is a LBO, is some form of vendor finance, typically a promissory note. A seller’s note may be structured in a number of ways. The bank will want delayed payment of principal and the purchaser will want a low rate of interest. However, a seller’s note may be the concession that makes or breaks a sale. It is important that professional advice is taken, particularly with regard to the capital gains tax implications. Another problem with share sales and vendor finance is the prohibitions in the Corporations Code against companies providing financial assistance for acquiring their own shares
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except in specific circumstances. However, the shareholders by special resolution at a general meeting can authorise such assistance provided it is advertised in the daily newspapers. If neither members, creditors, nor the Australian Securities Commission object, the vendor finance may proceed 21 days after publication. Other common requests are for the entrepreneur and/or management to stay with the company for several years and for the purchase price to be adjusted according to either future earnings or revenue. While profit is the usual criterion, both parties may find it preferable to agree on revenue as a basis for valuation. But, if profit is the basis, it is common for the seller to reduce all forms of long-term expenditure, be it capital equipment, product or market development, replacement stock, and so on. Sellers may shelter some of the purchase price by taking some of the payment as a consulting agreement. While capital gain is indexed against inflation, salaries are taxed initially at a lower tax and the entrepreneur will also be able to shelter some salary with superannuation. Entrepreneurs should also develop an understanding of how prospective acquirers operate. Many entrepreneurs have ended up staying with and eventually running the acquiring company. In fact, if the entrepreneur sees such an opportunity, he or she might well accept either a lower price or a consideration containing a larger amount of the acquirer’s stock. Because most sales will be shares rather than assets, representations and warranties will be needed from both the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist. Make sure that the offer memorandum (usually prepared by the broker) does not contain any items that neither the entrepreneur nor the investor is willing to warrant. Here venture capitalists, with experience on the other side of the table, should ensure fair and reasonable terms for all parties. Also, purchase agreements will usually contain some form of non-compete agreement based on some mixture of location, product and time. While the non-compete domain can be set quite wide, it will be difficult to uphold in court.
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Both stock and asset sales are complicated transactions, due to the tax implications. The past decade has seen changes in company tax every year and many areas of the tax code require rulings from the authorities. Also, the laws will change over time, so all parties need professional advice. One reason for using a big auditing firm is it should have expert tax partners. Another is the possibility of the fourth exit mechanism, receivership. This is not the book in which to consider windingup and liquidations. However, investors should realise entrepreneurs tend to be optimistic until the removal of the telephones. Thus the investors must provide the realism. The earlier realism sets in, the more likely investors will be able to recover some of their investment. Also, the investors should ensure they participate in any sale discussions. Often entrepreneurs wishing to save their own skins and gain credibility with new buyers will forget their fiduciary duties to present shareholders. They will team up with the new buyers and try to persuade the current investors to accept a fire-sale valuation. It is galling to decline what turns out to be a good investment opportunity. But it does not compare with what investors on the wrong side of a fire sale feel when they suddenly see their disposal become a successful business. There are various tactics that venture capitalists adopt to prevent a write-down. One technique is to convert the equity to debt, which will be paid with a balloon payment and accrues interest cumulatively. Such an arrangement removes any upside but delays a write-down for the term of debt. Other techniques are to license unused intellectual property, or buy another company if there is any residual cash left. Generally, however, these two alternatives are not available. The venture capitalist may choose to sell out to the management and get releases from any liability. Otherwise the best alternative may be to consider the business as a start-up, decide on what is the best capital structure with management and participating investors and then wash out from the capital structure all non-participating investors.
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AUSTRALIAN VENTURE CAPITAL EXIT HISTORY The annual AVCAL Venture Capital Survey tabulates the various exits achieved by investor members. The results set out in Table 21.1 demonstrate that while up to 1997 IPO exits were few, in the period 1998–2000 there was a dramatic increase reflecting the bull market in equities. Unfortunately, the overall percentage of write-offs (31 per cent) is comparable to overseas but the performance of the industry, as the skills and experience of the managers increase, is resulting in fewer write-offs. Indeed, for the fiscal year 2000 the amount written off was less than 0.1 per cent of total funds under management. Table 21.1
Australian venture capital exits (year ending 30 June)
Write-offs Floats Sale to trade buyers Other exit Total
cum. 1997
1998
1999
2000
Total
101 17 91 82 291
1 6 6 1 14
2 7 5 3 17
1 11 1 0 13
105 41 103 86 335
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Part Five MANAGING A VENTURE CAPITAL FUND
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22
Fund formation and structures The final part of this book addresses the organisation or individual who invests in more than one venture capital investment and is effectively managing a venture capital portfolio. The part comprises three chapters. This chapter examines the formation and structuring of a venture capital fund, Chapter 23 analyses fund operations, and the final chapter discusses portfolio management. While many entrepreneurs complain about the lack of venture capital in Australia, there is probably more than is realised. The problem lies in the definition. There have never been and probably never will be sufficient funds available to fund the production of prototypes of all the inventions developed in Australia. The mistake is to think that venture capital is start-up and seed capital. Even in the USA, the most developed venture capital market, at the height of the dot.com boom seed and start-up capital comprised only a minority of the private equity allocation. The IIF initiative has gone a long way to filling this equity gap in Australia but it is still there. The more important word in the phrase ‘venture capital’ is capital. Unfortunately, far too many investors imitate the entrepreneurs in whom they invest and become more intrigued by the venture side of the business than by the capital. Raising a new venture capital fund is a time-consuming task. The process takes about two years for a new management team. Even after the first fund is raised, raising the next fund is still a time-consuming task.
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US FUND STRUCTURES In the USA the typical venture capital fund structure is a limited partnership with funds raised from professional investors. In a standard partnership the partners are liable on a joint and several basis. If one partner fails to meet his share of the partnership debts, creditors and lenders may look to other partners for settlement on either a joint or individual basis. In a limited partnership the limited partners can only lose all of their original investment. A general partner, which may comprise one or more individuals, manages the partnership for an annual fee and a share in the generated capital gains. The partnership agreement generally precludes the general partner from raising another fund until the current fund is fully invested. The agreement also includes restrictions such as those put on company directors to ensure duties of faith and care and prevent conflicts of interest. The fund usually has a fixed investment period of five years and a termination date of ten years with an option to extend the partnership annually. Funds are called down on an as-required basis, to both make investments and pay the management fees (usually done quarterly in advance). Investors prefer the limited partnership structure because it is both easy to dissolve it and to distribute the spoils (a mixture of cash and shares in listed companies) without incurring either capital transfer or capital gains taxes. Unfortunately in Australia, as limited partnerships are either illegal and/or taxed as companies (distributions are deemed to be dividends and losses cannot be distributed), their utility as a financial structure is meagre.
AUSTRALIAN FUNDS In Australia a venture capital fund manager needs to make two critical decisions: •
Is it going to raise funds from the retail or wholesale markets?
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Is the venture capital fund going to be a tax-transparent trust or a pooled development fund?
Retail versus wholesale markets The 1999–2000 ABS Survey segmented the legal organisation of the venture capital market as shown in Table 22.1. Australia is unusual in that retail funds represent a much higher percentage of the VC market than they do overseas. Besides the listed companies there are several unlisted companies and trusts that are retail based. Among the listed companies, pooled development funds (PDFs) are a common structure. As the person who in June 1984 raised the first listed venture capital fund in Australia, BT Innovation Limited with 1600 shareholders, the author is familiar with the advantages and disadvantages of a retail venture capital fund. The advantage is simple—for new venture capital managers retail funds are generally the only structure available. In the USA the first small business investment corporations (SBICs) were listed and in Australia the first management and investment companies (MICs) and PDFs were listed. Some retail investors have an appetite for risk much greater than the institutions. Unfortunately they are often speculators with short time horizons. Retail funds have a number of problems. The first is due to structure. An institutional fund makes calls on its investors for both quarterly management fees and investments. Typically a ten-year fund with, say, fifteen investments will make some 60 calls over the life of the fund. This is done to maximise the Table 22.1
Legal organisation of Australian venture capital funds
Legal organisation Listed company Unlisted company Trust Other Total
Numbers 18 57 43 5 123
% 14.6 46.3 35.0 4.1
$m 565 777 1336 80 2758
% 20.5 28.2 48.4 2.9
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IRR. For a retail investor this process would be a nightmare, and typically subscriptions are done in one or two calls. Hence, while the prospectus of a retail fund will quote the IRRs made by institutional funds, a one- or two-call structure alone means the IRR will be much lower. Simple modelling demonstrates that if a retail and an institutional fund made identical investments, the retail fund would report an IRR around 40 per cent lower. Retail investors need liquidity, while institutions have the time and incoming cash flow to participate in ten-year liquidating funds. Listed investment funds generally trade at significant discounts to their net tangible asset (NTA) per share valuations; VC funds in particular do so. Lion Selection Group, a PDF that specialises in the mining industry and is very well run with experienced managers, generally trades at a 25 per cent discount to its stated NTA. This is because the NTAs of venture capital funds comprise shares in companies with substantial intangibles/blue sky and limited liquidity, and the marketplace prices such investments accordingly. Thirdly, in venture capital the lemons fall before the plums. Unsuccessful investments go under while successful ones grow in value and are kept in the portfolio. Hence with semi-annual reporting and continuous disclosure a listed VC fund for the first three or four years is reporting losses. This again drives the share price down. Finally, the administration of retail venture capital funds is more time consuming and costly, particularly if the fund is listed. If given the choice, most venture capital fund managers would rather manage a wholesale fund, of say, fifteen investors than a retail fund of, say, 3000 investors. On the other hand, institutional fundraising is not for the faint-hearted. It generally takes at least two years for a newly formed venture capital fund manager to raise its first fund. Even then the fund will typically be small and have only one or two cornerstone investors. As many institutions refuse to have a shareholding greater than 10 per cent of a fund, fundraising can be frustrating at the best of times. What happens is that the venture capital fund manager gets a small fund going in
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which it tries to prove itself. One fund manager describes this time as the ‘turn out the lights fund’, as every time you leave the office you turn out the lights to save on costs. This period is good for venture capitalists, however, as it provides them with first-hand experience of what a start-up entrepreneur has to endure.
Tax-transparent trusts versus pooled development funds Trusts are a more popular structure but companies in the form of PDFs are becoming more common. The PDF structure does have some major disadvantages. First there are some investment restrictions: •
•
• • •
• •
PDFs must invest in newly issued shares unless granted an exception by the PDF Board, so they cannot invest in buyout transactions. PDFs must invest in firms that will establish a new business, substantially expand production or expand markets. In other words, funds must be for the growth of enterprises. PDFs must invest in firms whose total assets are less than $50 million at the time of the initial investment. No more than 30 per cent of the PDF’s capital may be invested in any one investee. PDFs must own at least 10 per cent of the investee’s paidup capital at the time of initial investment (no maximum is prescribed). Within five years 65 per cent of the PDF’s capital must be invested. PDFs cannot invest in companies whose primary activity is retailing or property venture.
Secondly, there are some restrictions on PDF shareholdings. In particular, banks, insurance companies and widely held superannuation funds may hold up to 100 per cent of a PDF but other entities may only hold up to a maximum of 30 per cent.
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Finally, there are some administration requirements placed on PDFs. In particular, an annual report must be submitted to the PDF Board. However, there are some major benefits to institutions investing in PDFs and these are set out below. Higher income return Pooled development funds pay 15 per cent tax on income or capital gains derived from their investment in eligible small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Thus Australian superannuation funds, which at 37 per cent represent the largest investment group in the Australian venture capital industry, should be indifferent as to whether a VC fund uses a tax-transparent trust and/or PDF structure. This view is incorrect. This is because the PDF is able to split its dividend into two parts, a tax-free dividend and a fully-franked dividend that allows a superannuation fund to shield other income. For overseas investors, of course, PDFs are even more attractive as the tax-free dividends are not subject to withholding tax. In addition, two major changes were put into law on 23 June 2000. Firstly, Australian superannuation funds may claim back any tax paid by a PDF on capital gains from an SME. This makes a PDF almost a tax-free investment for an Australian superannuation fund. Secondly, PDFs can now buy back their own shares. This means PDFs can now emulate the limited partnership structure, in that on the realisation of an investment both the gain and the principal can be returned to the investor. Prior to this change the gain could be distributed as a dividend but the principal would be locked up in the PDF until it was wound up. No capital gains tax Another major advantage of a PDF compared to a trust is that PDF shares are not liable to capital gains tax while the sale of units in a trust would attract capital gains tax. While this is more attractive to retail investors who are generally on higher rates of tax, zero per cent for a PDF compares favourably to 15 per cent for a tax-transparent trust. With the growth of
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secondary funds which wish to acquire operating VC funds, this feature is becoming more attractive to institutional investors. Less risk Another major benefit of a PDF compared to a trust is that if an investor has to move to take control of an underperforming investment, a tax-transparent trust may well lose its tax transparency and be taxed as a company. This loss of tax transparency could well cause the investor to be reluctant to take the necessary steps. For the PDF manager, on the other hand, there would be no such worry of a loss. Unfortunately the reality is that in the sphere of venture capital the need to take control does occur and often it is better to strike earlier rather than later. If such a move is restricted because of fears of loss of tax transparency, then the case for the PDF as the preferred vehicle is even stronger. Not only does the PDF offer a higher return; it is less risky. Other approaches to circumvent this problem by mirror/parallel trusts are cumbersome to negotiate and implement. Ease of entry and exit by investors Investors in tax-transparent trusts need to negotiate complex unit-holders’ agreements to protect their rights. Legislation to protect their rights in this area is limited. On the other hand, the rights of shareholders in PDFs and the duties of the PDF directors are regulated under the Corporations Law and the Pooled Development Funds Act as PDFs are public companies. In addition there should be a majority of independent nonexecutive directors on the PDF board. Further protection should be provided by an equitable management agreement that allows termination of the agreement on a vote by PDF shareholders. Entry into a PDF is then simply a matter of completing a share application form and signing a cheque. Ease of administration Trustees, particularly in the light of the Burns Philp cases and others, perceive that they must do more than simply accept the
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managers’ recommendations for investments. Investees must not only deal with the legal representatives of the venture capital manager, they must also deal with the legal representatives of the trustee when concluding a shareholders’ agreement. Not only does this take more time, it may significantly increase the cost of an investment. Thus PDFs will be able to make their investments more rapidly and less expensively, giving them significant competitive advantage. Use of cumulative convertible redeemable preference shares In the USA the instrument of choice for investment is the convertible redeemable preference share (CRPS). The argument is that if you have a terminating fund (and terminating funds are the only structure that should be used for investment by institutions in this area) then the fund must be able to redeem shares. Unfortunately, under Australian tax laws the dividends paid by CRPS may be caught by the deemed debt provision. However, we consider that as the PDF pays tax at only 15 per cent the marginal cost is well worth the benefit of redemption. This instrument is not tax-effective if the investing fund is a tax-transparent trust. Figures 22.1 and 22.2 best show the increasing popularity of PDFs. The first shows the number of PDFs registered with the PDF Board. As can be seen for the period 1993–1999, between 4 and 18 PDFs were registered in a year. In 2000 the number jumped to 24 and some $140 million was invested in PDFs. While part of the popularity reflects the bull market, and many of the PDFs would be listed entities, there is no doubt that PDFs are increasingly becoming a vehicle of choice for Australian VC managers. Figure 22.2 shows the steady rise in dollars invested. Indeed, by June 2000 the PDF program had resulted in a cumulative investment of $309 million in some 289 companies. It should be noted that funds raised is not the same as funds committed. Institutional funds generally use a drawdown structure to maximise the internal rate of return of the fund. For example,
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40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1993
1994
Figure 22.1
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Pooled development registrations for the financial years 1993–2000
160 $m raised
$m invested
140 120 $m 100 80 60 40 20 0
1993
Figure 22.2
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
PDFs: funds raised versus funds invested
2000
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Table 22.2
Relative size of PDF sector
Pooled development funds Other government Private sector Total
Numbers
%
$m
%
47 7 69 123
38.2 5.7 56.1
568 91 2100 2759
20.6 3.3 76.1
Source: ABS Venture Capital Survey 1999–2000
St George Development Capital II Limited is an institutional fund with $69.8 million of committed capital. The fund was closed in November 1999 but had only drawn-down $4 million by June 2000 because the manager Nanyang Ventures pulled out of the market January–September 2000 because of excessive valuations caused by the dot.com bubble. According to the PDF 1999–2000 Annual Report, there were an additional $120 million of commitments to PDFs as of June 2000. The Australian Bureau of Statistics Venture Capital Survey provides the best analysis of the relative size of the PDF segment, summarised in Table 22.2. PDFs effectively represent 38 per cent by number of the VC funds in Australia and 21 per cent by funds invested. From Table 22.3 we see that the dominant source of funding is the superannuation funds, whose importance is continuing to grow. The institutions in Australia have begun to take a portfolio approach to investing in venture capital. They are losing their concern about the lack of liquidity, realising that provided the institution invests in terminating funds the asset class is self-funding. This is best understood by reference to a speech given by David Lewis, Vice-Chairman, Hambros Bank London at the 1995 AVCAL Annual Conference dinner. The lack of liquidity is often cited by institutional as well as other investors as being a major contributor to risk. In private equity investment funds, to my mind, this is a non sequitur. If it is liquidity you want, you are by definition a short-term investor and you should not be in a private equity fund: the listed markets are for you.
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Table 22.3
249
Sources of funding for Australian venture capital funds $m
Banks Foreign Fund of funds Government Life insurance companies Other Private trading enterprises Public trading enterprises Superannuation funds Amount raised
229 310 173 60 92 593 221 63 883 2624
% 8.7 11.8 6.6 2.3 3.5 22.6 8.4 2.4 33.7 100.0
Source: ABS Venture Capital Survey 1999–2000
Experienced institutional fund managers in the USA and Europe invest not in a single fund but a series of funds. It is, like everything else, unwise to invest all your funds in one basket. Distributions (and thereby returns on capital) typically start in years four and five of a ten-year fund. It makes sense, therefore, to invest an annual allocation of resources over a five-year period in different funds. At the end of the five-year period, distributions will begin giving profits and cash flow to be recycled into new private equity funds. Most experienced US and UK institutional investors adopt this approach as they know only too well that some years are good, vintage ones and others are not so good.
It is a simple exercise to build a straightforward spreadsheet model for an institution allocating, say, 5 per cent of its portfolio to private equity and deciding to spread its investment across five venture capital fund (VCF) managers. Each year it picks a new VCF and makes a commitment of $5 million. Each VCF performs identically. For years 1–5 the VCF draws down $1 million a year and for years 6–10 the VCF returns 17 per cent compound or $2.2 million per year. In year 5 of the first fund, the manager commences fundraising for a second fund, which is successful and starts in year 6. This process is repeated for
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$m 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Years
Figure 22.3 Cumulative cash flow curve for an institution investing across five VCF managers
each of the five fund managers. The cash flow for an institution adopting this strategy is shown in Figure 22.3. This investment strategy has a number of interesting results. Firstly, even though the institution has committed $25 million to venture capital, its actual exposure is only $18.4 million. Indeed, asset consultants advise institutions that are investing in venture capital funds for the first time to generally make commitments around twice the asset allocation. Hence, if a $1 billion fund wishes to allocate 5 per cent to venture capital it should commit to $100 million of venture capital funds. Secondly, after seven years the cash flow goes positive and after eleven years the cumulative cash flow is positive. The alternative asset class becomes self-funding. This state of affairs has already been reached in the USA. Indeed, in 1996 a milestone was reached where US pension funds committed more to alternative assets (4.4 per cent) then they did to property (3 per cent) as an asset class. Thus, given that an institution decides to allocate funding to
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the venture capital asset, what approach can it take? One is to set up its own venture capital arm and hire its own managers to make investments on its own behalf. This structure is known as the captive management approach. It has been adopted by such organisations as National Australia Bank, AMP Investments and Citicorp Australia. Overseas captive venture capital funds, particularly those run by non-financial corporates, have had limited success. One reason for failure has been the staff chosen to operate the funds. Engineers or corporate planners are usually chosen, and they make the common mistake of thinking (possibly correctly) that if they were running the investee business it would succeed. The policies of the parent corporation towards remuneration and personnel will often conflict with those needed for venture capital funds. The parent corporation policies will be based on salaries and probably incorporate job rotation every two to three years. Thus, the good managers seek promotion to other areas within the parent corporation or are headhunted internally. A venture capital management company motivates itself on capital gains. This requires a different type of person who has a longer-term perspective. Another difficulty for a captive VCF is that the capital investment process adopted is similar to that used for capital equipment. Capital investments are carefully considered and subject to the overall capital budget of the corporation, which can vary quarter by quarter. Furthermore, changes in the environment may cause the parent company to change its corporate strategy. For example, Telstra, as part of its privatisation program, dissolved the Telstra Product Development Fund. Finally, corporations tend to demand control and are uncomfortable either in syndications or in taking in new partners in further fundraisings, which is the heart of the venture capital model. Another institutional approach is that adopted by St George Bank which, although it set up a captive fund with $20 million, St George Development Capital Limited, decided to outsource the management to an independent manager, Nanyang Ventures. In the second fund, St George Development Capital
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II Limited, the bank committed to another $20 million but this time an additional $50 million was subscribed by superannuation funds and the Development Australia Fund. The Development Australia Fund (DAF) was Australia’s first Fund of Funds. It has been an important driver of the venture capital industry in Australia. The first fund of $100 million started in 1990 with $50 million from the AMP and $50 million from four industry superfunds. DAF II was raised in 1995 and had $350 million of commitments from seventeen superfunds. DAF has so far invested in some 20 VC managers. It is probably fair to say that an Australian VC manager would regard having DAF as an investor as a critical seal of approval. The fourth approach an institution can take is to become an investor in an independent venture capital fund, which can either be institutionally backed (e.g. Macquarie Investment Trust) or be totally independent (such as Australian Mezzanine Investments). The issue then becomes one of selecting which fund structures and managers to use. Many superannuation fund trustees have outsourced the choice of fund managers to asset consultants, who are sometimes known as gatekeepers. The leading asset consultants in Australia are Wilshire, Industry Fund Services (who advise DAF) and Quentin Ayers. Most of the major superannuation fund investors use gatekeepers to help them in their choice of fund managers. They have been very influential in Australia and have forced through quite onerous terms by US standards. On the other hand, they have played a major role in the education of trustees and in establishing industry standards. The classic fund structure now used by institutional funds is a terminating fund. The typical fund structure is summarised as: •
•
The manager draws down funds on an as-required basis to either make investments or pay management fees quarterly in advance. Funds are invested once only and then, when the investment is harvested, both the capital originally invested and the profit are returned to the institutional investor.
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•
253
The fund has a fixed life typically of around ten years. Investments are only made in the first five years of the fund, after which investments are harvested.
By the combination of a drawdown structure, terminating fund, fixed investment period, and only one investment per dollar committed and hopefully higher returns, institutional investors gain compensation for the lack of liquidity.
FEE STRUCTURES Fee structures generally comprise two elements, a management fee paid quarterly and the carried interest. Best practice is set out below. Management fees are calculated during the investment period as a percentage of total funds committed. After the investment period terminates the management fee gradually reduces, reflecting the smaller amount of work involved. Typical values are 2.5 per cent for the first five years declining to 1–1.5 per cent in the final two years. This structure is called a scaledown. When the investment period finishes the capital base on which the management fee is calculated is the total of the funds drawn down. As divestments begin to occur, the principal returned on each divestment further reduces the capital base. Table 22.4 provides an example of the scaledown management fee structure in place for a $30 million fund. As can be seen, over the life of the fund the average management fee is 1.69 per cent. Investors then require that they then receive back all their capital including both principal invested and management fees. In addition, in Australia an index is generally applied to this principal. Indexes used in Australia are the inflation rate, the ten-year Commonwealth Bond rate at the date of fund formation, or a stock market accumulation index, but the standard is moving to a fixed percentage of 8 per cent. The performance index prevents managers of large funds receiving
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what could be significant rewards for little or no work. This is called the preferred return. Once the investors have recovered their original capital in the form of dividends and capital returns, a performance incentive then cuts in, with investors receiving the majority of the gains achieved and managers a carried interest. Typically the carried interest is 20 per cent. New managers generally get away with a higher management fee (say 2.5 per cent) to compensate for the smaller fund size but on the other hand get only their 20 per cent on the excess over the preferred return. Fund managers with larger funds typically charge a lower management fee (1.5–2 per cent) but once they have beaten the preferred return share 80/20 before the index applies. This requires a clawback clause to restore the distribution ratio for 100/0 to 80/20. Typically the clawback ranges from 80 to 100 per cent of the next distributions. Occasionally the management fee starts off slightly lower in year 1, rises in year 2 and then stays level in years 3–6 before it starts to decline. Called a scaleup/scaledown structure, this is illustrated in Table 22.4. Investors should note that this fee structure has not been the common practice in Australia. Instead, fees for venture capital funds have frequently been calculated on the drawdown amount or the asset valuation, whichever is the higher. This structure is regarded by many investors as not in their best interests, as it results in fees that are low at the beginning of the fund and high at the middle and the end. This structure has been abandoned overseas for three reasons: •
•
The old structure puts pressure on the manager to make investments as rapidly as possible in order to attract fees. This does not make for good investment decision-making. The managers are not properly resourced at the beginning and consequently are apt to make poorer investment decisions. By adopting the scaledown structure the management team is properly resourced over the whole of the initial investment period.
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Table 22.4 A scaledown management fee structure for a $30 million fund Year 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10
•
Y/E adjusted capital ($m) 30 30 30 30 30 22 16 10 4 0 Average
Management fee (%) 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.693
Actual fee ($) 750 750 750 750 750 585 380 228 105 30 507
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 800
Under the old structure the managers tend to hold onto investments or put extra money into them in order to maintain fees rather than seek the exit and capital gain. Under the scaledown structure the reverse practice applies.
MANAGEMENT SELECTION CRITERIA Alignment of institutional and management interests This is probably regarded by most institutional investors as the most critical factor. Investors in venture capital funds should apply the same principle that venture capitalists apply to their own investments—that is, to use structure and performance incentives to induce the correct behaviour, and in the event of non-performance move to control and replace the management team. One key is to establish a drawdown structure. The institution should not commit all its investment at once. If it is unhappy with what the manager is doing it stops investing. Further, the investors must have the right to terminate the management agreement by a simple vote. Golden shares and golden
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parachutes should not be allowed. They generally protect incompetence. Another important technique is to use the scaledown fee structure outlined above. Yet another way to ensure alignment of interests is to have the manager either invest in the fund itself or make co-investments at the same time the fund makes an investment. This is a very common approach taken by institutions that are raising venture capital funds and seeking other institutional investors. For example, Macquarie Bank committed 20 per cent to the first two Macquarie venture capital funds. Independent fund managers lacking such a capital base co-invest in each transaction. For example, Nanyang Ventures co-invests $10 000 in every investment that it recommends its funds make. This follows the famous aphorism of Warren Buffet, who is widely regarded as the best investor in the world and the USA’s wealthiest individual after Bill Gates: ‘Good fund managers should eat their own cooking.’ Another key to remove conflict of interest is to ensure that all consulting, monitoring or fund raising fees pass to the fund and not the manager. This is very much the case for venture capital funds in the US and is becoming more common in Australia.
Life expectancy of managers A major problem in Australia has been management teams either leaving or breaking up before the end of the fund’s investment cycle. If you look at the experience overseas, the successful long-term venture capital managers have not been those founded by either corporate or financial institutions but those where the managers have significant equity. There should be a founding management team in place comprising at least three principals. It is best if they have worked together, but what is more important is that the management team has significant equity in the success of the venture. Venture capital is a long-term process. Equity is a long-term reward. If the management team does not have equity in the management
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fund then they generally move on, as has often proved the case in Australia. The loss of key staff has become a critical issue for American and European institutional investors. Typically, if a key person of the management team leaves, the investors have the right to suspend all further investments, or any further calls, or in some cases to terminate the fund.
Disciplined investment strategy It is most important that the investment manager has a disciplined investment strategy that stacks up. Most particularly, it must have the ability to provide above-average returns; the target return from investees must be at least three times the prevailing long-term bond rate. The strategy may be focused on sector (e.g. Technology Venture Partners) or on structure (e.g. Prudential).
Experienced management team Two words are important here—experience and team. There should be at least three founding members of the management team who expend significant sweat equity raising the funds. People tend to be more cautious with other people’s money if they have worked hard to get it. Experience is also important. There are two key skills a venture capitalist requires: equity investment analysis/ management and equity corporate finance. Unfortunately much of the corporate finance skills gained by people with smaller companies are based on debt. Venture capital is an equity process and the principals must understand methodologies of equity finance. There is a school of thought that places emphasis on operations experience but, while useful, it is not a key skill. Indeed, it has been the experience overseas that general managers, particularly those who come out of large transnationals, cause problem. Most have never worked under a cash constraint and
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they also tend to apply big company solutions to small company problems. Entrepreneurs who have built a business and successfully floated can be of use. How much experience do you need? Typically a minimum of five years in the venture capital field or a similar field is necessary. In addition, there must be a base of transactional experience. As a minimum the founding management team should have done at least ten transactions among themselves.
Successful track record Of course, the management team can be both experienced and focused and still be a poor venture capital manager. There must be a clear demonstration of a successful track record. There should be not just one successful investment but a number. In addition, there should be a clear demonstration of the ability to handle problem investments (workouts). However, even success is not enough because the management team could have been lucky. There is something else that is necessary and that is intellectual firepower. In the long run, intelligence will win out and to quote David Hoare, the Chairman of Bankers Trust and many other major organisations: ‘Venture capital is a game that requires more intelligence than most.’ Intellectual firepower is not a sufficient condition for success—you also need rat-like cunning and energy—but it is a necessary condition. Again, if you do not have the results of an independently assessed IQ test you must look at educational track record for guidelines.
Externally generated non-standard deal flow Potential deals will always come to money; what is important is the manager having the ability to generate deals outside the standard deals that will flow past all the venture fund managers. This is frequently stressed as the most important criterion by overseas institutions and venture capital
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managers. If you are merely reactive to deal flow you will not get the winners. As one well-known Australian asset consultant has said, ‘If there is no petrol to put into the car, it is not going to run.’
Syndication capability Two key issues face the venture capitalist when investing. The first is whether the initial price is too high. The best comfort is to have another independent investor willing to pay the same price. The second is a request for follow-on funding. Investors must ask themselves whether they are throwing good money after bad? The best protection is to have another independent investor set the price; if you cannot find another investor, decline the request for more funds. The first loss is usually the best loss. In Australia, because of the lack of players, these two processes of syndication and independent follow-on funding rarely occurred. Now, however, syndication is much more common. For the institutional investor another key criterion should be whether the venture capital manager has a track record of syndication and deal-making with other venture capital managers. Another key issue for a new manager is the fundraising target. As a minimum, a $20 million fund is necessary. A smaller total amount does not allow sufficient portfolio diversification if a fund has a reasonable minimum investment level. Otherwise, adequate diversification is only achieved with insufficiently sized investments. Too much money can be raised. While megafunds (funds larger than $500 million) are unusual in Australia they have become common in the USA. Their performance has been mediocre. First, there is a tendency to put too much cash into a deal trying to lay off funds. As the failure of many dot.coms has demonstrated, too much equity funding can do as much harm as too little. Secondly, the megafunds do not syndicate; they tend to do the total deal themselves. Syndication is useful to venture capitalists, not so much because of risk diversification but because
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it provides a method of independently pricing and testing a deal. If several contemporaries refuse to invest for logical reasons, perhaps the deal should be reconsidered. It is the same as an underwriter looking for sub-underwriters; if an underwriter cannot lay off some of the risk to professional investors it will drop a proposed underwriting. A venture capital fund should use syndication as independent confirmation of a deal. Finally, megafunds will have a tendency when coming up to a refinancing to throw money at an investment instead of refusing. Again, when refinancing of the next round is due, the earlier investors should look to having at least one new party in the round. If the original investors cannot induce a new party to join the deal, they must reconsider their position and ensure they are not throwing good money after bad. Thus, too much money can be as much a problem as too little. A good size for an Australian venture capital fund is probably between $50 and $150 million.
CORPORATE VENTURE CAPITAL Many corporations, particularly in the USA, aggressively set up in-house venture capital funds, either as a source of profit or as a way to keep tabs on new technologies. During 1995, corporate VC funds invested $361 million in 59 companies; by 2000, that had mushroomed to $5.7 billion in investments in 340 companies, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. The amounts being invested in 2001 have declined by some 80 per cent, however. History is littered with companies that jumped into venture capital when times were good, only to jump right out when the environment soured. Some famous venture capital investments such as Apple and Digital Equipment Corp. opened and shut venture capital funds within five years. In Australia, Telstra had its own venture capital fund run by its own managers that subsequently shut down in preparation for its listing. Part of the problem is that corporations tend to be latecomers to the venture capital party, arriving just in time to pay top prices.
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Also CEOs change, and last year’s strategic diversification becomes this year’s lack of focus. There is often conflict about whether investments should be made for strategic or financial goals. Then there are problems about compensation, since managers running the corporate VC fund cannot be rewarded with a profit incentive as in a traditional venture firm. Hence, corporate venture capital managers often join independent VC managers after several years. Nevertheless, corporations can achieve exposure to the venture capital asset class by investing in independent funds or outsourcing. IBM and Boeing have invested in Allen & Buckeridge’s venture capital funds while St George Bank outsourced its first venture capital fund (a wholly owned subsidiary) to Nanyang Ventures.
CONCLUSION While structure and sourcing are important, the most important determinant of fundraising success is the overall condition of the financial markets. Is the equity window open? The management track record then follows. While prospective venture capitalists can do little about the former, they can do something about the latter. The following chapter describes the management skills necessary to operate a venture capital company.
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23
How to run a venture capital fund Before describing how to run a venture capital fund (VCF), it is worth noting how a VCF is similar to other forms of financial intermediaries, such as banks and building societies. First, a VCF seeks funds from a number of investors, which it in turn invests. Second, the VCF invests in many different enterprises to diversify risk. Third, the VCF, by professional management and more efficient administration, tries to achieve a higher return than the investor who makes his or her own direct investment into private companies. Nevertheless, the investments of a VCF are different from other financial intermediaries. High-growth companies lack the performance history on which to judge the investment. The investment is illiquid for some considerable time. There is also the implicit recognition by the investor that the business will need more funds. Finally, the investment usually needs a much greater degree of hands-on involvement by the managers of the fund. Gradually, academics are carrying out research on how a VCF is managed. The seminal paper by Tyebjee & Bruno (1984) published the results of a telephone survey of 46 venture capitalists and a detailed analysis of 90 investments made by 41 different venture capitalists. The Tyebjee & Bruno model, a five-step process, is shown schematically in Figure 23.1. In this chapter we will compare the Tyebjee & Bruno model with information gained from the annual AVCAL surveys (AS)
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and the Coopers & Lybrand study The Economic Impact of Venture Capital (EIVC).
STEP 1: DEAL ORIGINATION Tyebjee & Bruno analysed the origins of completed deals as follows: • • •
unsolicited cold calls referrals active search
25 per cent 65 per cent 10 per cent
The rate of referrals is due in part to the substantial syndication that occurs in the USA. Syndication refers to the process whereby one VCF, acting as a lead investor, seeks other funds to participate. Syndication is a method of both diversifying risk and performing due diligence and valuation. The greatest comfort an investor can have is to know there is another investor making the same decision. As the pool of venture capitalists has grown, syndication has become increasingly common in Australia. Cold contacts
Referrals
Deal origination
Technology scans
Screening
Evaluation
Structuring
Post-investment activities
Figure 23.1
How a venture capital company operates (after Tyebjee & Bruno)
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The other source of referrals is from entrepreneurs and the advisory network. Successful entrepreneurs who know the venture capital game are probably the best source of deals. Thus, a golden circle of investment can begin where a budding entrepreneur either works for or asks the advice of successful entrepreneurs. If successful entrepreneurs detect the entrepreneurial spirit, they pass the carrier on to the venture capitalists and a new business success story may begin. Similarly, auditors and lawyers who work on successful deals develop reputations which further attract future successful entrepreneurs. In Australia networks are gradually developing. However, the VCF fund should try to develop networks so the fund is the recipient of a deal flow. Some of these networks are already formed. For example, Nanyang Ventures, via its management of St George Development Capital Limited, has the 400-plus St George Bank branch network as a source of non-standard deal flow. Entrepreneurial training programs such as Corporation Builders and the Enterprise Workshop are another source of deal flow. The latter is a year-long program under which budding entrepreneurs attend a group of seminars and weeklong live-in courses, learn to analyse business plans and then prepare a business plan for a new venture. Also, universities such as Swinburne and Bond are now running post-graduate training programs in business planning and entrepreneurship. There is also an element of luck in finding partners. The angels market appears like a giant game of hide and seek where both the entrepreneurs and angels search for each other with blindfolds on. However the growth of the Australian venture capital industry over the past five years has seen directories, pitchfests, advisory networks and Internet matching services all develop.
STEP 2: SCREENING A VCF tends to run on a small staff. Given a good deal flow it is necessary to set up screening criteria to select proposals for
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further investigation. Typically, about 75 per cent of the flow is screened out at this stage. Investors face two major screening errors. A type I error is rejecting a deal that is ultimately successful. A type II error is accepting a deal that ultimately fails. The quality of a venture capital company effectively comes down to how few of both errors it makes and what criteria it uses. •
•
Size of the investment and the policy of the venture fund. An implicit lower limit is set on investment size because each investment takes around the same time to monitor and venture capitalists cannot afford to spread themselves too thin. The monitoring limit is five to eight investments per manager, compared to say 30–40 equity investments for the average listed equity portfolio manager who operates in a hands-off style. At the top end there is a limit set by the size of the fund. No prudent fund manager would expose more than 10 per cent of a portfolio to one investment. The Coopers & Lybrand survey of 104 companies (summarised in Table 23.1) demonstrates the investment dispersion of $718 million. The median amount is in the $2–$5 million band. In addition, besides setting policies on the size of the transaction, fund specialisation has occurred in Australia according to structure and technology. Catalyst, for example, specialises in management buy-outs but not management buy-ins. The IIF funds are not allowed to invest in companies whose turnover is greater than $5 million. The technology and market sector of the venture. As a general view the venture capitalist is investing as much in an industry as in an individual business. In the USA where the deal flow is much greater, the venture capitalist cannot hope to understand more than a few industries so implicit specialisation occurs. In Australia some industry specialisation is also occurring. Advent has a specialist tourism fund, while Allen & Buckeridge and TVP specialise in the information technology industry. Rothschild has a specialist biotech fund, while Gresham-Rabo has a specialist food and agriculture fund. In general, venture capitalists prefer
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Table 23.1
Dispersion of venture capital investment by size of investment
Size of total investment ($m) <0.5 0.5–1 1–2 2–5 5–10 10–20 20–50 >50
•
•
% of total 9 7 14 30 19 10 9 2
products to services, the industrial to the consumer market, and nascent to mature technology when investing. Geographic location of the venture. Since venture capitalists should meet regularly with the key management, they prefer to choose nearby investments. Although all VCFs usually state they will accept proposals from anywhere, over time their portfolios do develop a geographic specialisation. The majority of venture capitalists are located in Sydney and Melbourne and, as the Australian Venture Capital Journal noted in its March 2001 issue, that is where most of the activity occurs (see Table 23.2). Stage of financing. This is probably the most important screening criterion in Australia. Tables 23.3 and 23.4 show the investment by stage as recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics survey (2000) and the Australian Venture Capital Journal (March 2001). Note the AVCJ survey also includes New Zealand.
As can be seen, the expansion stage is the preferred investment stage for investment by Australian venture capitalists.
STEP 3: EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT The Tyebjee & Bruno paper, using the latest statistical techniques, exhaustively analysed the decision variables used in an
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Table 23.2
Investment by region
Region
Number
% total
A$m
% total
178 151 37 30 49 11 4 11 2 473
37.6 31.9 7.8 6.3 10.4 2.3 0.8 2.3 0.4 100.0
508.7 214.3 116.7 54.4 72.2 24.0 2.9 36.0 1.0 1030.2
49.4 20.8 11.3 5.3 7.0 2.3 0.3 3.5 0.1 100.0
New South Wales Victoria New Zealand Queensland Western Australia South Australia Tasmania Australian Capital Territory Northern Territory Total
Table 23.3
Investment by stage of company (ABS 2000)
Stage Seed Early Expansion Turnaround Late LBO/MBO/MBI Total
Table 23.4
267
Number
%
$m
%
122 183 169 9 28 58 569
21.4 32.2 29.7 1.6 4.9 10.2 100.0
269 612 761 54 157 426 2279
11.8 26.9 33.4 2.4 6.9 18.7 100.0
Investment by stage of company (AVCJ 2000)
Stage Seed Start-up Early expansion Expansion LBO/MBO/MBI Turnaround Other Total
Number
%
$m
%
95 104 111 184 11 5 12 522
18.2 19.9 21.3 35.2 2.1 1.0 2.3 100.0
85.3 258.8 170.7 427.8 169.4 8.7 19.3 1140.0
3.7 7.5 18.8 7.4 0.4 0.8 38.7
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evaluation. From an original list of 23 variables Tyebjee & Bruno found that five factors often mentioned by non-players were unused or dismissed. The five criteria not used were: 1 2 3 4
5
patentability of the product; raw material availability; production capability; tax benefits, because the venture capitalist would be looking at the investment to provide capital gain and not a tax shelter; reduction of portfolio risk; investments were considered on a one-at-a-time basis.
By contrast, the study found five factors that were mentioned time and again by the US venture capitalists. They were as follows (the sign in the brackets refers to relative strength): 1 2 3 4 5
market attractiveness (++); product differentiation (+); cash-out potential; environmental threat resistance (obsolescence, low barriers to entry)(–); managerial capabilities(– –).
Investors are looking at both return and risk. The first three factors raise the potential rate of return while the last two increase the likelihood of failure. The lack of experience of the early Australian venture capitalists probably led to insufficient time being spent on assessing the growth prospects for the investment and how large was the market for the company’s product or service. For a start-up these assessments are difficult. On the other hand, for an expansion-based company these risks can be assessed more accurately. Other common deal killers that come out during the evaluation/due diligence stage are a flawed or incomplete marketing strategy, unrealistic or incomplete financial projections, and weak administration systems.
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As noted above, around 75 per cent of deals are rejected at the screening stage. Of the remaining 25 per cent around 23 per cent are subsequently rejected. What makes for success? The first is personal empathy. Studies in the UK have shown that the single most important factor for the entrepreneur in gaining investment is maintaining contact with the venture capitalist. An investment decision is a buying decision and, as any salesperson knows, buying is done with the heart and not the head. Gradually a venture capitalist will gain emotional commitment to a proposition and not see the red flags as they begin to emerge. The second key is the level of personal commitment by the entrepreneur and whether he or she thinks like an owner. If the entrepreneur already has business ownership experience, the venture capitalist is far more readily attracted. Another key to success is having other investors. Coinvestment provides significant comfort to other investors. Often the process is one of gradual pyramid building. One investor may commit, say, half the investment with the proviso that the other half must be found from somewhere else. This then becomes a carrot to induce other investors. Some names are better than others. Finally, it should be noted that, although a venture capitalist may do only two or three deals out of every 100 seen, the actual hit rate for entrepreneurs is much higher. There are now 44 investor members in AVCAL. The actual percentage of the deal flow that is done is much higher than the 2 or 3 per cent often quoted in the press. Of course, not all deals pass by every venture capitalist and many deals are syndicated. Nevertheless, the proportion of deals that do get away is higher than most people realise. Indeed, while steps 2 and 3 have been mainly about rejection, acceptance does happen. If a proposition has a strong management team with significant business experience, a history of growth and the potential for more, a proven and credible marketing strategy to get to $50 million turnover, and a technology base to spin off new products, then the more likely scenario is competition among venture capitalists to do the deal.
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STEP 4: STRUCTURING THE DEAL If the evaluation proves satisfactory, the next stage is structuring the deal. No single methodology for valuation is generally accepted, but the earlier chapters on structuring and valuation describe some of the more common techniques. A secret of venture capital is to use the structure of the financing to focus entrepreneurs on reaching the goals set out in the business plan. The approach differs depending on whether the investment is a start-up or second-stage investment. For the start-up the secret is to tranche the investment. If an entrepreneur requires about $750 000, then instead of investing the amount in one tranche the funding should be divided into, say, three tranches of about $250 000 each. The investment of the first tranche occurs immediately and the second and third tranches only follow on the achievement of some mutually agreed project milestones. For the second-stage investment the venture capitalist may adopt a structure known as reverse tranching. Assume an investment requires $1.2 million for 46 per cent of the company post investment, and the company is expected to be profitable within two years. The company intends to list in four years. One possible structure is to invest, say, 25 per cent in ordinary shares and 21 per cent in redeemable preference shares. At the end of the second, third and fourth years, 7 per cent of the redeemable preference shares can be redeemed and replaced with bonus shares for the entrepreneurs if mutually agreed profit targets are reached. The reverse tranche structure is a good structure for introducing reality into the projections of the entrepreneur. Typically, the initial conservative profit projection estimates are: Years 1 Profit ($m) 0
2 3
3 6
4 9
When the concept of the reverse tranche is introduced and accepted, the profit projections are usually revised:
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Years 1 Profit ($m) 0
2 0.1
3 0.2
271
4 0.3
The art of structuring then becomes one of agreeing on a profit growth that is sensible and achievable. By using tranches the venture capitalist can achieve the best platform for a successful listing—quality of earnings. Tranching also has the important benefit of focusing the mind of the entrepreneur on the key objective of business, namely growth in profits.
STEP 5: POST-INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES The essence of venture capital is that it should not just be money but should add value in other ways, which have been detailed in Chapter 20. For the fund manager whose time may be limited the key activities are summarised below. •
•
•
•
Sourcing additional funds. Venture capitalists play a key role in sourcing additional funds, such as equity, debt or lines of credit. They should aim at leveraging their equity investment by an equivalent amount of debt and government grants. Acting as a devil’s advocate. Since small-business people walk alone and have no sounding boards, venture capitalists act as devil’s advocates. By simply reading many business plans one begins to develop a good ‘feel’ for the keys to success—what the financial ratios should be, whether the market projections are realistic, and so on. Fostering the correct climate. This may be defined as the combination of marketing enthusiasm and attention to costs that is not found in large companies. It is important to prevent the ‘BMW complex’ developing—this is when the first purchase of a newly funded company is a BMW for the entrepreneur. Providing credibility for big sales. Since small start-up companies lack status, having a venture capitalist as a referee, especially if the company the venture capitalist represents has a high profile, can be most helpful.
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•
•
•
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Exit mechanisms. Since the procedures of underwriting, choosing a broker, prospectus preparation and other exit mechanisms may be unfamiliar to entrepreneurs, venture capitalists also provide negotiating support in these areas. Recruitment of founders and management. Since entrepreneurs often start from an engineering or production background and lack either marketing or financial skills, venture capitalists can play an important role in staff recruitment. Advising on legal protection. Since intellectual property rights are unfamiliar to many lawyers, and licensing agreements, patents and trademarks are expensive to arrange, venture capitalists can be useful and helpful advisers and prevent costly mistakes.
ST GEORGE DEVELOPMENT CAPITAL Figure 23.2 shows the operating statistics for the first fund of Nanyang Ventures, St George Development Capital Limited. This was a $20 million PDF wholly owned by St George Bank. The fund began operations in April 1996 and in October 1999 made its eleventh and final investment. Over the 3.5 years the managers received 808 business plans and considered 75 in its weekly Monday meeting. This is known internally at Nanyang as the first screen and the staff use the MAMECH formula described in Chapter 17. From the 75 (MAMECHs), 28 prospective investees were selected for the second screen, the four-hour Bell-Mason Diagnostic. Twenty-two companies made it through the BMD and the CEO then did a three-hour psychographic profile. This screening process takes around three weeks elapsed time. Fifteen companies made it to due diligence, and at this time Nanyang Ventures was able to inform the CEO that there was about a 70 per cent chance of securing funding. Four companies did not make it through due diligence and 11 investments were completed. The time taken from exchange of business cards to cash injection is known as the card-to-cash ratio (C2C). Nanyang Ventures aims at a C2C of
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808 deals
65 MAMECHS week 1
22 psychographic profiles week 3
15 due diligence weeks 4–7
Figure 23.2
273
28 BMDs week 2
11 investments week 8
St George Development Capital Limited operations
around thirteen weeks and the best it has achieved is eleven weeks. At the height of the dot.com mania, US C2C ratios were around three weeks. To quote one US VC, ‘If you asked to do due diligence in 1999, you lost the deal.’ Now the time has extended back out to several months and valuations have dropped. Typical deals are no longer structured just as straight convertible preferred securities, which are convertible to common shares at the holder’s option, but investors are now demanding and getting full participating preferred stock. Participating preferred stock gives the holders their money back, plus accrued dividends, plus a share in the remaining proceeds of the sale or IPO.
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CONCLUSION In his excellent book, Venture Capital—The Complete Guide for Investors, upon which many of the concepts of this book are based, A. D. Silver identifies eight functions in venture capital investing: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
deal generation due diligence structuring the terms and conditions syndication monitoring adding value selling out and exiting portfolio management.
We have covered the first seven activities in some detail and will discuss portfolio management in the last chapter. What qualifications and skills are necessary to be a venture capitalist? One essential would be a combination of market analysis, investment appraisal and due diligence skills. Someone who has worked either in security analysis, portfolio management, corporate lending, market research, corporate planning or product development would have these skills. Another requirement is the ability to monitor and add value to investments; this would come from having worked as a general manager in a company or division of a multinational. The final skills are a combination of corporate finance, underwriting and syndication skills which could be derived from either stockbroking or merchant banking. Deal cutting is another key skill for the venture capitalist. Finally, what should be the degree of personal financial involvement of the venture capital managers themselves? The classic question that should be asked of the portfolio manager is, ‘Would you put your own money in this company?’ For the venture capitalist the question should be restated as, ‘How much of your own money are you going to put in this deal?’
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They should be prepared to eat their own cooking. In the same way that entrepreneurs should have hurt money at stake so should the managers of a venture capital fund. Obviously, the amount must be sensible, as the recommending manager should have investments in about half a dozen deals. The willingness of venture capital fund managers to invest their own capital is perhaps the strongest recommendation they can make for an investment proposal.
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24
Portfolio management
In this final chapter we discuss the portfolio management aspects of a venture capital fund. Among venture capital funds there is a spectrum of management involvement ranging from active hands-on to almost pseudo-institutional hands-off investing. Hands-off management is an alternative for the larger fund but most venture capital funds in Australia are small and adopt a hands-on style. Hands-on management is the traditional style and it is the one discussed in this book. If we compare a traditional portfolio, investing in either bonds or equities, with a hands-on venture capital fund, we note several differences. The first difference in managing the two types of portfolio is the marketability of investments. It makes no difference whether equity or bond managers make poor or brilliant decisions; either way they can recover some, or a significant multiple, of their capital. On the other hand, the venture capital investor has difficulty with liquidity—the public listing market and the company sale market are both slow in operation. Listings can take up to six months, company acquisitions from three to twelve months. The compensation venture capitalists must have for this lack of liquidity comes first from control. If the venture starts to veer away from the track of the business plan, venture capitalists should have built into the shareholders’ agreement enough controls and devices to ensure they can take remedial action. The chapters on structuring and post-investment activities
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describe the techniques. Failure to include control mechanisms enshrined in formal and legally binding agreements will soon lead to portfolio loss and disaster.
RETURNS The second way of compensating for lack of liquidity is from the target returns for investment. In an ideal world, all of a fund’s investments would be winners. But the world is not ideal; even with the best management; the odds of failure for any individual company are high. On average, good plans, people and businesses succeed only one in ten times. To see why, consider Table 24.1, which lists eight of many factors critical to a company’s success. The best companies might have an 80 per cent probability of succeeding at each of them. But even with these odds, the probability of eventual success will be less than 20 per cent. Reduce the probability of success of any factor to 50 per cent, and the probability of eventual success drops to less than 10 per cent. These odds also play out in venture capital portfolios (see Table 24.2); more than half the companies will at best return only the original investment and at worst be total losses. Given the portfolio approach and the deal structure VCs use, however, only 10–20 per cent of the companies funded need to be real winners to achieve the targeted return rate of 25–30 per Table 24.1
The probability of success
Individual event Company has sufficient capital Management is capable and focused Product development goes as planned Production and component sourcing goes as planned Competitors behave as expected Customers want product Pricing is forecast correctly Patents are issued and are enforceable Combined probability of success
Probability (%) 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 17
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Table 24.2
$m invested Payout year 5 Gross return Net return
A typical VC portfolio Bad
Alive
Okay
Good
Great
Total
200 0 0 (200)
400 1X 400 0
200 5X 1000 800
100 10X 1000 900
100 20X 2000 1900
1000 4400 3400
cent. In fact, VC reputations are often built on one or two good investments. As a reality check consider Table 24.3, which contains the first portfolio of the manager generally regarded as the best in the world, Kleiner-Perkins. The first fund invested $7.5 million in seventeen companies and returned $345 million. Note that two investments, Tandem and Genetech, between them generated $325 million. The fund had a TVPI (total value received Table 24.3
Kleiner-Perkins’s first fund
Venture
Year
Cost ($)
1986 value
Advanced Recreation Equipment Amtekna Inc. Antex Industries Applied Material Inc. Dynastor Inc. Movacor Medical Corp. Office Communications Inc. Qume Corp. Speech Technology Corp. American Athletic Shoe Cetus Corp. Tandem Computers Inc. Amadahl Corp. Genetech Inc. Collagen Corp. Enviro Development Co. Andros Analysers Inc. Total
1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1976 1976 1977 1977 1980
229 200 275 000 200 000 317 658 497 405 674 000 429 748 246 760 41 353 418 782 500 100 1 450 001 92 500 200 000 655 211 953 495 279 059 7 460 272
—111 150 000 2 529 561 000 500 000 1 912 000 94 453 7 964 000 —111 —111 641 795 165 968 000 607 148 160 372 000 4 010 000 —111 2 780 000 345 562 925
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per input $) ratio of over 46 and a weighted average return of 44 per cent. The AVCAL 2000 report contained a comparison of the returns achieved by Australian funds (19) with US funds (576) over the period 1986–99, as shown in Figure 24.1. These return numbers are worth examining closely. Firstly, many people, particularly promoters of retail venture capital funds, will quote the average return earned by the venture capital asset class. What they omit to mention is the wide dispersion in returns earned by VC fund managers. As can be seen, the lower quartile figure of 0.7 per cent earned in Australia is not that different from the 2.3 per cent earned in the USA. In fact, the returns from VC managers the world over are quite similar. • •
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
The bottom 25 per cent of the managers will lose most if not all of your money. The next 25 per cent will give you a return around the cash rate.
44.7
26.4 19.7 12.2
0.7
2.3
Lower quartile
1.37
Average
Upper quartile Oz
Figure 24.1
2.38
TVPI
USA
VC returns—Australia versus USA, 1986–99
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The next 25 per cent will give you the return on an indexed equity fund with much more administration. The top quartile will give outstanding returns in the order of 25–30 per cent post fees, fund after fund.
If you compare this to the listed equity market, where the standard deviation around the mean return is 1.5 per cent, you understand the challenge facing institutions when selecting a new VC manager. Secondly, there has been outstanding performance in terms of IRRs by the top quartile US VC managers up until 31/12/99. There are two reasons for this exceptional performance. First there was the NASDAQ dot.com bubble. As explained in The New New Thing, a highly recommended book by Michael Lewis, the floodgates opened in 1995. Jim Clark, with KleinerPerkins’s aid, set a precedent by taking Netscape public despite its possessing few revenues and no great business plan. Subsequently 133 Internet companies, nearly all backed by VCs, staged initial public offerings prior to May 1999. What is not often realised is how American VC companies obtain their returns. In Australia the investors demand that returns are calculated on a cash in–cash out basis. In the case of an IPO the VC must sell the shares on the market and distribute the cash to the investors. In the USA, once the investee company lists and the shares come out of escrow, the shares are immediately distributed in specie to the institutional investors. The VC takes as his exit valuation (and the one used to calculate the IRR) the price at the time of distribution. When the VC manager is distributing Cisco or Microsoft everyone is happy. On the other hand, when the investor has received, in return for his $10 million investment, shares in Internet companies that are now worth, say, $500 000 and yet the VC manager is claiming returns of 100 per cent plus, a debate on the validity of VC returns ensues. Since then quarterly returns have dropped and there is now much debate of what the price should be on the date of distribution. There has been a shift from the price on the date of distribution to the average of the five days before and five days after.
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DIVERSIFICATION One problem for venture capitalists managing a portfolio is that if many investments go wrong concurrently they very quickly run out of time to handle the fires. What venture capitalists must do is diversify this risk by spreading their investments among different industries and among companies at different stages of venture, and by spreading them over time. Diversification among different industry sectors is difficult in Australia. The primary industry sector, mining and agriculture, is high risk. You either strike oil or you don’t. Agriculture is similarly high risk—with new ventures such as aquaculture suffering from high manufacturing risk and poor track records. Commodity prices are volatile and the fluctuations can destroy the quality of earnings so necessary to raise further rounds of funds. The manufacturing sector in Australia, especially in electronics, is by international comparisons small and weak. However, the decline in the dollar combined with the change from wholesale sales tax to the GST has made the manufacturing sector far more internationally competitive. The services sector, while fast growing, still tends to be small and fragmented. The small size of the domestic market and the ‘tyranny of distance’ has long limited the potential of Australian service companies. However, cost reductions and improvements in telecommunications and air travel have made Australian service companies far more export orientated. Nevertheless there is a quite wide investment diversification, as shown by the survey results in Table 24.4, based on the ABS Venture Capital Survey 1999/2000 (ABS); and Australian Venture Capital Journal/PricewaterhouseCoopers 2000 survey (AVCJ). The AVCJ study includes New Zealand, and is for the 2000 calendar year. The ABS survey covers the 1999/2000 financial year. Another means of diversification is by geography. While for the equity and bond manager investing in overseas markets has become increasingly popular, geographical diversification for venture capitalists is less so. As mentioned earlier, a golden
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Table 24.4
Australian venture capital investment by industry
Activity
ABS %
AVCJ %
General manufacturing Computer related General services Mining and exploration Communications Technology Agriculture Medicine/health related Retail Personal and recreation services Tourism Construction Food/beverages Financial services Transportation Government and infrastructure Environment related Entertainment
24.9
15.9 11.1 1.3 3.7 22.7 3.2 0.4 8.3 5.5
19.3 6.2 11.2 2.4 8.7 8.5 3.8 0.8 9.7 2.8 0.9 0.8
0.7 1.3 2.7 14.5 2.7 1.0 5.0
rule of venture capital is to invest within one hour’s travel of the investment. This principle usually outweighs the need for geographical diversification. Venture capitalists usually achieve some diversification by being a passive syndicate partner in interstate investments. Unfortunately, as mentioned before, Australia has only two cities of sufficient market size to support most start-ups. Hence, a fund based outside Victoria or New South Wales suffers both from inadequate deal flow and the need to invest much of the portfolio away from the fund managers. The final and perhaps most important form of diversification is the time of investment. Venture capitalists should try to spread out their portfolio and not concentrate their investments into too short a timespan. Fashions change. In three short years Australia, emulating the USA, has seen Internet consumer
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applications, Internet business applications and telecommunications infrastructure become the focus of considerable venture capital, a run-up followed by collapse in valuation. A good example of what can happen was Loudcloud. Loudcloud was an Internet company led by the founder of Netscape, Marc Andreessen. In June 2000, it raised $120 million from a syndicate of venture capitalists on post-funding valuation of $800 million. (Its quarterly revenue at the time was $6.5 million.) The plan was for an IPO at a valuation of around $1.2 billion. In March 2001 it eventually listed at less than $400 million post funding and its share price is now at two-thirds its IPO price. The venture capitalists have lost 75 per cent of their investment in nine months. While venture capitalists will find it difficult to buy straw hats in winter, they should not focus too much on the hot industry of the moment nor listen too closely to the forecasters of the time. Cash management trust managers who invest primarily in 90-day bank bills can effectively index their fund by splitting it into thirteen equal amounts. A thirteenth of the fund is invested every week in new issues and the bills held until maturity. Venture capitalists should adopt the same philosophy and aim at developing a pipeline of deals with an average time in the pipeline of, say, four years. The corollary of this principle is that if the maximum spread of investments a venture capitalist should be handling is eight, then he or she should be completing about two new deals a year. On completion value should be added and the investment driven to a public listing within three years. Natural slippage will mean the average time to exit will slide to about four years until takeout. This concept of buying into companies at low valuations, increasing their value and then exiting at high valuations is not new. As A. D. Silver has noted, the best proponents of this investment cycle were the British merchant banks in the late nineteenth century; they developed it into an art form. When the portfolio begins to age and difficulties begin to appear, the VC fund manager needs to make the critical decision of follow-on funding. One rule of venture capital
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investing is that high-growth companies need at least twice the amount of funding initially estimated in the business plan. The difficulty for venture capitalists is in establishing whether the need for follow-on funding is because of failure or success which is just around the corner. The acid test is whether with the follow-on funding the venture capitalists can attract new syndicate partners. If not, they must carefully consider whether to make the follow-on investment. Experience recommends not, because it would probably be throwing good money after bad. What may happen is the investment goes on the drip feed, whereby the investment is given monthly cash amounts while the management and the incumbent venture capitalists look for additional funding. Even on the drip feed the venture capitalists should set careful limits. In the same vein, another problem with venture capital funds is that the lemons fall before the plums. Assume a venture capitalist has made two equal investments and after a year both require funds—one because it has sold nothing and the other because it is growing faster than expected and needs additional working capital. New investors are queuing up to invest in the latter company at a 75 per cent increase above the initial postfunding valuation. None wishes to invest in the former company. The incumbent investor must concede defeat and write off the first investment as a lemon. However, his total portfolio will now suffer a loss in value. If the second investment shows the same increase of 75 per cent at the end of the third year the compounding effect will more than compensate for the lemon. However, the plum still falls after the lemon. This rule of lemons falling before plums is one reason venture capital funds in the USA do not list on the share markets— because of the initial drop in net tangible assets for the first two to three years. Another problem with venture capital funds is the search for the big winner. One of the first venture capital firms was American Research & Development, mentioned earlier. Founded in 1947, ARD was very successful with its initial investment in Digital Equipment Corporation which, over a sixteen-year
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period, had a compound growth of 84 per cent. The original $70 000 investment was subsequently worth $350 million. The success of DEC dominated the performance of the ARD portfolio. In time the prevalent venture capital strategy became the search for the king hit. It is possible to simulate a model of a venture capital portfolio using a spreadsheet, as shown in Table 24.5. In this model it is assumed the portfolio begins on day one with ten equal investments and runs for five years. The objective of the portfolio is to show a 25 per cent compound growth over the period. It is assumed certain investments are going to fall over and only 10 per cent of the original asset will be salvaged (the lemons). Figure 24.2 shows the rate of return needed from the remaining investments (the plums) in order to achieve the overall portfolio objective. Figure 24.2 shows that if nine of the ten investments are lemons, the remaining investment must achieve a compound annual return of 97 per cent. The relationship is not linear. If only six lemons occur, the average return required from the remaining plums is 55 per cent. This suggests venture Table 24.5 Initial value 10
Lemons 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Venture capital portfolio model Required return
Period (years)
Final value
Salvage ratio
25%
5
30.52
10%
Remaining final value
Remaining initial value
30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6
9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0
Required return (%)
Difference (%)
27.6 30.5 34.0 38.1 43.1 49.6 58.3 71.6 96.9
3.0 3.4 4.1 5.0 6.4 8.8 13.3 25.4
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% 100 80 60 40 20 0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Number of lemons
Figure 24.2
Venture capital model—required rates of return
capitalists might better spend their time on three or four investments than trying to find one king hit. A corollary of adopting such a strategy is a limitation on the number of investments a venture capitalist can manage. Reducing the portfolio rate of return objective has a negligible effect on the slope of the curve or required rates of return. As demonstrated in Table 24.5 and Figure 24.2, a portfolio with an objective of 25 per cent needs a 97 per cent return from one remaining asset but 72 per cent if two remain, making a difference of 25 per cent. If the objective is increased to 35 per cent, then the required rates of return are 113 per cent and 86 per cent respectively, resulting in a difference of 27 per cent. Another rule of venture capital management is that the more patient the venture capitalist, the better the return on the portfolio. This rule sits uncomfortably with most institutional portfolio managers, who are influenced by quarterly surveys and advisers’ reports. Yet the model supports this approach. If
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the same overall return objective is kept but the time horizon is lengthened, the required rates of return curve drops substantially. As an example, the required rate of return for a single remaining asset in a five-year 25 per cent target return portfolio is 97 per cent. If the portfolio termination date extends to seven years, the required return figure falls to 73 per cent. As indicated above, venture capitalists should make sure they gain control over the investment if it fails to perform. Many venture capital textbooks expound this rule as a key clause to be contained in the shareholders’ agreement. As venture capitalists often have the minority position, the disaster clause usually contains some trigger point such as an asset/liability ratio being breached. Venture capitalists either gain control of the board, are assigned the voting rights of the entrepreneurs, or appoint a governing director. Venture capitalists spend much time negotiating this clause with entrepreneurs. After being assured by the venture capitalists that they only want a minority position, the entrepreneur then finds disaster clauses are inserted, demanding total control. It is debatable whether the conflict is necessary. If the model is run with the salvage ratio set at 90 per cent rather than 10 per cent, it makes little difference to the slope of the required rate of return curve; it just drops to slightly lower values. If only one asset remains, the required rate of return drops from 97 to 86 per cent. Thus venture capitalists, instead of concentrating their efforts on the disaster clause or subsequently trying to resuscitate the lemons, might be better advised to cut their losses. The venture capital philosophy of Kleiner-Perkins, regarded by many as the number one venture capital firm in the USA, supports this belief. Eugene Kleiner, one of the founders of Silicon Valley, has been quoted as saying: ‘There is a time when panic is the appropriate response. However, if you make a mistake, get out quickly, just get it over because otherwise it takes so much time.’ On the other hand, replacing the chief executive officer may be the one change that a company needs to survive and grow.
: Mon 1 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :
Cash receipts
Sales Govt grants – EMDG Govt grants – GIRD Govt grants – BOUNTY Royalties/Other
Total cash receipts
Variable payments
Staff costs: Salaries and wages Payroll tax Superannuation Other Freight and cartage Stock Sales tax
Total variable payments
Gross margin
Fixed payments
: : : : :
Year Year Year Year Year
1 1 1 1 1
: : : : :
Year Year Year Year Year
2 2 2 2 2
: : : : :
Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3
: : : : :
: : : : : : : :
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
: : : : : : : :
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
: : : : : : : :
Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3
: : : : : : : :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 12 12 12 12
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
Pro-forma cash flow projection, income statements and balance sheets
Operating cash flows
Appendix A
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12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
: : : : : : : : : : :
Total fixed payments
: : : : : : : : : :
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 : : : : : : : : : :
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 : : : : : : : : : :
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3
Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 : : : : : : : : : :
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : :
Staff costs: Salaries and wages Payroll tax Superannuation Other Service costs: Commissions Motor vehicles Travel and entertain. Promotion and advert. Other Facilities: Rent Rates and land tax Leasing Computer Repairs and maintenance Other Other costs Admin. (Acct, bank fees) Insurance Electricity Telephone and telex Printing, post and stat. Interest Other
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: : : : : :
: Mon 1 : : : : : : : : : :
Non P & L payments
Capital expend. Tax/FBT/other Total cash payments
Surplus/(deficit)
Cumulative operating C/F
Financing cash flows
Debt Equity Less: Debt principal repay. Dividends
Total financing C/F
Net cash flow
Opening balance–cash
Closing balance–cash
Overdraft limit $
: Mon 1
: : : : :
Year Year Year Year Year
1 1 1 1 1
: : : : :
Year Year Year Year Year
2 2 2 2 2
: : : : :
Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3
: : : : :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 12 12 12 12
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year 3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 : 12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 : 12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year 3 :
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: :
Gross profit
Total expenses
: :
Less: COGS
: : :
:
Total revenue
+Purchase –Closing stock Cost of goods sold
: : :
Sales Other operating income
:
Other
: Year 1 ...
Projected P & Ls
Opening stock
Stock
:
Total non-cash expenses
Total assets
Investments Intangibles
Fixed assets
Total current assets
Current assets: Cash Deposits
: : : : :
Depreciation Leave provisions Bad debt provisions Stock provisions Tax provisions
Balance sheets
: Mon 1
Non-cash expenses : : : : :
Year Year Year Year Year
1 1 1 1 1
: : : : :
Year Year Year Year Year
2 2 2 2 2
: : : : :
Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3 Year3
: : : : :
Year 1 ...
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year3 :
12 12 12 12 12
12 : Year 1 : Year 2 : Year 3 :
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:
–Dividends
–Tax
Shareholders’ funds
Paid-up capital Retain, earn.–Open. bal. Net profit Less dividends Other
Non-current liabs: Loans Leave provisions Other Total liabilities
Other
: :
Provisions Loans
: :
Tax
Profit after tax
Provisions
:
Creditors
:
Profit before tax
Bank overdraft
:
+/– Non-operating items
Current liabilities:
:
Operating profit (loss)
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Appendix B
Sample spreadsheet for investment monitoring
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Glossary
Add-ons Marketing term used to describe the extra charges and fees added to the basic price of a product. Affirmative covenants Terms contained in a shareholders’ agreement where the company or management agree to carry out certain actions. Examples would be to prepare annual budgets and supply monthly accounts. Aftermarket support Term used to describe the activities of a broker or underwriter after a listing to ensure the share price remains steady or rises. This can vary from acting as a principal buying shares to demanding immediate payment of the underwriting fees. Agency capture What happens when politicians, full of good intent, instead of using the threat of competition create a bureaucratic agency to protect consumers. The major suppliers then capture the agency and change it into a lobbying agent for themselves among the politicians. Angel A private individual who subscribes early-stage capital. Aquaculture Growing crops in water rather than on land. Agriculture has been in existence for about 10 000 years and aquaculture 100 years, which is a reasonable insight into the risks involved. Asset intensity The value of assets required by a business to support $1 in sales. The figure is the reciprocal of asset turn and varies from, say, $2 for a capital-intensive manufacturer to $0.15 for a retailer.
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296
Glossary
Asset redeployment Term used by new owners of a company to explain how they intend to improve the return on assets. For example, actions might include selling businesses which are not an intrinsic part of the business, rationalising product lines, and so forth. Asset turn The ratio obtained when the annual sales are divided by the assets of the company. The ratio can vary from 1 for a miner to, say, 8 for a retailer. Blue chips In Australia the top one hundred companies ranked by market capitalisation which would be able to borrow unsecured from banks and whose shares would be an automatic choice in most institutional portfolios. Break-even analysis Financial tool which is used to establish whether the gross profit of a business will exceed the fixed costs. Buy-in price Price at which an investor purchases new shares for transactions where the cash remains with the company. Buy-out price Price at which an investor purchases old shares for transactions where the cash goes with the seller. Call option A contract whereby the holder of an option has the right to buy from the grantor shares at a specific price (strike price) at some time in the future. Capital employed Capital employed is the sum of equity and long-term debt used by a company to purchase long-term assets and for working capital. Capital gain The amount realised on exit less the amount invested. Capital intensity The amount of capital employed needed by a business to support $1 of sales. The reciprocal of capital turn. Captive funds Venture capital funds, usually part of a bank, using a bank’s retained earnings to invest in equity of private companies. Capital structure The composition of a company’s source of funds, especially long-term funds. Capital turn The ratio obtained by dividing the annual sales of a company by the capital employed.
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Glossary
297
Carried interest The share of a venture capital fund’s investment profits that go to the venture capital fund manager, typically 20 per cent after the investors have recovered all their invested capital, sometimes known as carry. Closed-ended funds Funds with a limited life span, e.g. ten years, to be invested and realised and which raise a targeted sum of commitments and then close to further commitments. Cold-call presentation Selling term used to describe the first meeting between a buyer and seller where the initial contact has been at most a telephone call arranging a meeting. Contributing shares Shares on which only part of the capital amount and any premium has been paid. Often useful in tranching structures. Contribution rate Accounting term expressed as a percentage calculated by subtracting variable costs from sales. The contribution rate then describes what percentage of each sales dollar is available to cover fixed costs. Convertible notes Hybrid fixed-interest security whereby the holder has the option of converting the debt to equity at some pre-arranged date and conversion price. Convertible preference shares Preference shares which may be converted to ordinary shares at the option of the holder. Corporate fund A venture capital fund wholly owned by a corporation and typically managed by in-house staff. Cost of goods sold Accounting term defined by the equation opening stock plus purchases plus expenses related to purchases less closing stock. Deal flow Venture capital term used to describe the number of proposals being received by a venture capital fund on some calendar basis, such as three deals a week. Debt Capital supplied for which there is a fixed income, fixed repayment period and fixed repayment schedule. Development capital Capital required by an established company to fund the expansion of the business.
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298
Glossary
Dilution of equity Stock market term used to describe the situation whereby the issue of new shares results in the original shareholders owning a smaller share of the company. Dividend yield Stock market term which expresses as a percentage return the annual dividend per share divided by the latest market price. Due diligence The process of researching a business and its management prior to proceeding with a venture capital deal, or not. Early-stage capital Finance for companies to initiate commercial manufacturing and sales. Earnouts Venture capital term used to describe the technique whereby the management or owners increase their ownership or sell-out price according to the profits they produce over some period. Economies of scale Economic term used to describe the cost benefits that accrue from increasing size, such as volume discounts on purchases or spreading fixed costs over an increasingly larger production base. Entitlement issue See non-renounceable rights issue. Equity The proportion of a company that shareholders own. Sometimes described as shareholders’ funds. Owners typically receive income in the form of dividends, have no security with regard to repayment of their investment, and there is no defined time period for holding their investment. Equity hybrid A security that combines the characteristics of debt and equity, such as a convertible note. Equity kicker Shares or call options offered to lenders, underwriters, promoters or management as additional consideration for services rendered. Equity sweetener Effectively the same as equity kicker, but generally used when referring to free options granted to subscribers to a new issue of shares. Escrow provisions Legal term used to describe undertaking given by present shareholders not to sell shares unless certain conditions are met.
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Glossary
299
Exit mechanism Venture capital term used to describe the method by which a venture capitalist will eventually sell out of an investment. Expansion capital See development capital. Financing gap Venture capital term used in leveraged buyouts to describe the difference between the purchase price of a company and the debt raised on the assets and cash flow of the company. Fire sale Finance term used to describe the situation when a company is forced to sell off assets cheaply because of lack of cash. Fixed costs Those costs such as rent that do not vary according to changes in sales levels. Flip A short-term investment made by a venture capital fund manager with the intention to list and exit within eighteen months. Floor Stock-market term used to describe the situation where a buyer has a permanent order in to buy shares at a certain price. Franked dividend Dividend paid out of after-tax profits on which tax at the full corporate rate (presently 39 per cent) has been paid. Recipients of franked dividends are not subject to further taxation on the dividend. Gearing The ratio of debt to equity as stated in a company’s balance sheet. Golden share A share whose vote must be included in any motion passed by the shareholders. Gross profit Sales less cost of goods sold. Hands-on A relationship involving close regular contact and significant influence and participation in management decisions. Hands-off A relationship involving less frequent contact and only participation and influence in major strategic decisions. Hurt money Cash invested or exposure made by an entrepreneur to the business. The greater the proportion hurt money represents of the entrepreneur’s personal wealth the more convincing the argument to the investor.
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300
Glossary
Identifiable intangibles Intangible assets for which it is possible to set a valuation such as future income tax benefit. Illiquid Term used to describe an investment for which there are few buyers. Implementation plan Plan defining the steps and activities required to achieve goals. Independent funds Venture capital funds raised from more than one source and run independently. Initial public offering The first fundraising done from the general public and which generally results in a listing on a stock exchange. Intangible assets Assets owned or generated by a company that are not easily sold except with the company as a whole and usually are not easily measurable. Intellectual property Legal term used to describe the patents, licences, copyrights, trademarks and designs owned by a company. Interest cover Pre-interest cash flow divided by interest payments. Internal rate of return The basis by which returns to the investor are forecast or measured. Effectively it is the compound rate of return over the life of the investment and combines capital gain with income earned either in the form of dividends or interest. It is greatly affected by the timing of the exit. Learning curve An imaginary curve which describes the reduction in cost that occurs as a factory makes more and more of a particular product. Also used to describe the increase in skill of an employee over time. Letter of intent Document which is not legally binding but given by one party to another to show good faith and which describes the main agreed points of a transaction. Leveraged buy-out Purchase of a company where the purchaser uses a larger than normal amount of debt to finance the transaction. Living dead Term used by venture capitalists to describe
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Glossary
301
investments which while not decreasing in value are showing no growth. Management buy-in Usually a leveraged buy-out organised by new managers or management team. Management buy-out Usually a leveraged buy-out organised by the existing management of the company. Management fee The fee paid to a venture capital manager for running a venture capital fund. Typically, for the first five years it is 1.5–2.5 per cent annually and paid quarterly, some times known as the base fee. Market capitalisation Value of a company calculated by multiplying the number of shares on issue by the last sale price. Mexican stand-off Term in a shareholders’ agreement which states that a shareholder who offers to buy shares from another is obliged to sell to the other party at the same price. The clause is used to ensure any offer is fair and reasonable. Mezzanine financing Financing obtained using instruments that fall between the bottom floor of equity and the top floor of secured debt. Monopolistic competition Industry structure where there are many small suppliers each of which has a monopoly position in the area it serves. Negative covenants Terms in a shareholders’ agreement that state actions the management of a company may not carry out without the permission of the investors or their representatives. Examples include changes in executives’ salary levels and sales of major fixed assets. Negative pledge Lending agreement where the borrower covenants are not to exceed certain limits, such as gearing levels. Net profit Sales less all expenses, which may or may not include corporate tax. Net tangible assets The difference between tangible assets (e.g. stock, debtors, land, etc.) and liabilities in the balance sheet.
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302
Glossary
Net worth The difference between the assets and liabilities of a company on its balance sheet. Net worth is equal to shareholders’ funds. Non-price competition Competition among suppliers using such items as warranty periods, credit terms and after-sales service. Non-renounceable rights issue Rights issue where the shareholders may either take up rights or let them lapse. The shareholders are not allowed to sell the rights to another party. Also known as an entitlement issue. Oligopolistic structure Industry structure where a few suppliers dominate the market. Open-ended funds Funds with no set time span imposed. Ordinary shares The equity in a company constituting ownership; ordinary shareholders are entitled to dividends and to vote. Owner’s equity The residual of assets less external liabilities. Partly-paid shares See contributing shares. P/E ratio Price/earnings ratio; the ratio of share price to earning per share. Petty patent Special patent that allows the inventor to protect only one aspect of an invention for only a short period of time (five years) but is less expensive than a worldwide patent and obtained within six months. Portfolio diversification Investment strategy where the portfolio manager spreads investments across many industries and thus tries to diminish the risk of a single-industry depression reducing the portfolio return. Positioning strategy Marketing term used to define a strategy where a company tries to distinguish itself from its competitors by focusing on some market segment. Post-funding valuation Valuation of company after an equity injection that is obtained by multiplying the total shares on issue by the share purchase price. Preference shares Shares that rank ahead of ordinary shares for dividends or payment upon winding up of the company.
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Glossary
303
Preferred return Distribution of a venture capital fund’s profits made first to institutional investors until they have recovered their initial capital investment and in some cases an indexed additional amount. Pre-funding valuation The valuation of the company prior to funding calculated by subtracting the cash that remains within the company from the post-funding valuation. Price taker Marketing term used to describe a supplier of goods whose price is set independently by the market. Price to book value ratio The ratio of the share price to the net worth per share. Price to revenue ratio The ratio of the share price to the company revenues per share. Product differentiation Marketing term used to describe the strategy of defining new or current product features or benefits that distinguish the product from the competition. Pro-forma accounts Balance sheets and profit and loss statements for future years prepared in the same format as the current accounts. Put option A contract whereby the holder of the option has the right to sell to the grantor shares at a specific price (strike price) at some time in the future. Ride Venture capital term used to describe the potential percentage of profits or equity ownership available if a deal works out as planned. Redeemable preference shares Preference shares which at a stated maturity date will be redeemed by the issuing company. Revalued asset Asset assigned some value other than the book value (cost price less any depreciation). Revaluations may be either downwards (e.g. investments devalued to market price) or upwards (e.g. real estate or directors’ revaluation of licence agreements). Rights issue An issue of new shares on a proportional basis to existing shareholders, usually at a discount to market price, to raise additional shareholders’ funds. The shareholder may allow the offer to lapse or, if the issue is renounceable, sell or transfer the rights to another party.
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304
Glossary
Road-show presentation Series of presentations made to institutional and large private investors to sell a new issue. Running yield The return on an investment expressed as cash earned over cash invested. No account is taken of potential capital gain or redemption. Scale-down Management fee structure where after the investment period the management fee declines as the venture capital fund moves to divestment. Scale-up Management fee structure where for the first one or two years the management fee rises as the fund builds investment momentum. Second-line stock Shares of listed companies that do not rank as blue chip or first-line companies. Secured debt Loan where the lender, in the event of a failure to meet either an interest or principal payment, gains title to an asset. Secured lending Making loans only to parties who can provide an asset as security in the event of non-payment of interest or principal. Seed capital Financing allowing the development of a business concept. Seller’s note Sometimes known as vendor finance; the seller of the asset accepts some part of the payment on deferred terms. Sensitivity analysis Financial analysis where variables such as selling price are adjusted upwards and downwards by some factor (say 20 per cent) to establish the effect on profits. Shelf company A company which has been created but never traded. Shortfall The difference in a fundraising between the expected amount and the amount actually raised, which in turn must be provided by the underwriters. Stag profits Profits made by someone who subscribes to a new issue and sells on the first day of trading. Start-up capital Financing allowing product development and initial marketing.
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Glossary
305
Strike price The price of the underlying share at which a call or put option is exercisable. Subordinated debt A loan which ranks behind other debts if a company is wound up. Subordinated loans, if provided by a venture capitalist, would either command a higher interest rate or have call options attached. Suppliers’ credit Often overlooked form of financing provided by creditors when they offer extended payment terms. Takeout mechanism See exit mechanism. Taking a bath Slang term used by an investor who has seen a significant reduction in value of an investment, or by an underwriter with a significant shortfall. Technology parks Industrial estates located next to universities or other research establishments and designed to attract advanced technology companies. Term sheet A short two- or three-page document that outlines the investment agreement between an entrepreneur and investors. Tranching Investment made in stages, each stage being dependent on achievement of targets. Trial close Selling term used to describe when a salesperson asks for the order, not expecting success but hoping to unearth further objections from the prospect. Turnaround Company converted from making losses to profits. A turnaround situation is a company which is still making losses but which an investor believes has sufficient turnover to make potential profits. Undercapitalisation Situation for a company where insufficient equity has been supplied by the shareholders or retained in the company to support the activities of the business. Unsecured lending Lending where the borrower has not provided any assets in the event of non-payment of interest or principal. Uprates Marketing term used to describe upward revisions in pricing schedules.
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Vapourware Computer industry term used to describe nonexistent products compared to actual hardware and software. Variable cost Costs such as materials and manufacturing labour that vary with the level of sales. Warranties Terms in shareholders’ agreement whereby the promoter or vendor guarantee the past and present operating condition of a company. Examples include operating in a legal fashion; no bad debts or stock, etc. Breach of warranty gives the investor the right to claim damages but does not destroy the contract. Working capital Capital employed by the company to fund the excess of current assets (stock, debtors, etc.) over current liabilities (creditors, leave provisions, bank overdraft, etc.) Yield Income payable by an investee to an investor.
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Bibliography
Andersen, A., ‘AVCAL Survey of Venture Capital’, Sydney, 1993–98. Australian Venture Capital Journal (various) Victor Bivell (ed.), Pollitecon Publications, Sydney. Bell, C. G., High-Tech Ventures: The Guide for Entrepreneurial Success, Addison-Wesley, New York, 1991. Bygrave, W. D. & Timmons, J. A., Venture Capital at the Crossroads, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, 1992. Churchill, N. C. & Lewis, V. L. ‘The five stages of small business growth’, Harvard Business Review, Boston, January 1983. Churchill, N. C. & Mullins, J. W., ‘How fast can your company afford to grow’, Harvard Business Review, Boston, May 2001. Coopers & Lybrand, ‘The Economic Impact of Venture Capital’, Sydney, 1997. Drucker, P. F., Innovation and Entrepreneurship, William Heinemann, London, 1985. Ferris, W., Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained, Allen & Unwin, Sydney, 2000. Golis, C. C., ‘Where angels should not fear to tread’, JASSA, June 1994. ——‘Criteria for choosing a development capital fund manager’, Australian Venture Capital Journal, September 1994. ——‘Why are PDFs a better investment vehicle than tax transparent trusts?’, Australian Venture Capital Journal, September 1994. —— ‘A pro-active development capital Investment Strategy for Australian institutional investors’, Australian Venture Capital Journal, September 1995. ——‘Nothing ventured—Why our institutions have no appetite for alternative assets’, JASSA, December 1995.
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308
Bibliography
Gompers, P. & Lerner, J., The Venture Capital Cycle, MIT Press, Boston, 1999. Kaplan, J., Startup: A Silicon Valley Adventure Story, Houghton Mifflin, Boston, 1995. Kuhn, T., The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press, Third Edition, 1996. Legge, J. M, The Competitive Edge, Allen & Unwin, Sydney, 1992. Levitt, T., ‘Marketing myopia’, Harvard Business Review, September– October 1975. Lewis, M., The New New Thing: A Silicon Valley Story, Penguin, London 2001. Lipper III, A., Investing in Private Companies, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, Ill., 1984. Moore, G. A., Crossing the Chasm, Harper Collins, New York, 1991. Nesheim, J. L., High Tech Start Up, The Free Press, New York, 1997. Porter, M. E., Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, Free Press, New York, 1984. Silver, A. D., Venture Capital—The Complete Guide for Investors, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1983. Timmons, Dr J. A., ‘Venture capital: More than money’, in Pratts Guide to Venture Capital Sources, 8th edn., Venture Economics, Inc., Mass., 1983. Tyebjee, T. T. and Bruno, A.V., ‘A model of venture capitalist investment activity’, Management Science, 1984, Vol. 30, No. 9, PP.1051-1066. Venture Economics, ‘AVCAL Yearbooks 1999–2000’, Newark, New Jersey, 1999–2000. Wallace, J. & Erickson, J., Hard Drive, Bill Gates and the Making of the Microsoft Empire, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1992.
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Index
ABC Flying Start Award, 37 acquisitions, 228–34 add-ons, 120 Adler, Larry, 165 Advanced Technology Park, 79 advisers, use of 160–61 affirmative covenants, 156 after-market support, 224 Allen & Buckeridge, 261 American Research and Development, xix, 284 AMP Investments, 251 angel networks, 61 anti-dilution provisions, 209 asset intensity, 26, 182 asset redeployment, 36–7, 89 AusIndustry, 74 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 13, 43, 59, 81, 176, 248 Australian Business Limited, 61 Australian Mezzanine, 73 Australia Post, 16 Australian Securities Commission, 97, 109 Australian Stock Exchange, 46, 47, 222 Australian Venture Capital Association, 61, 75, 81, 150 Australian Venture Capital Guide, 75, 77, 82, 90
Australian Venture Capital Journal, 58, 75 AVCAL/Venture Economics Venture Capital Survey, 81 backdoor listing, 227–8 Bakers Delight, 57, 126 balance sheet, 27, 140, 291–2 barriers to entry, 24–5 Bell, Gordon, 64 bionic ear, 80 Boeing, 261 Bond, Alan, 35 bootstrapping, 50 Borland International, 4 break-even analysis, 129–34, 141 Buffet, Warren, 256 business plan, 95–100 business risk, 34 Byte 4 Cadburys, 125 call option, 148, 161–2 Campbell's soups, 123 capital employed, 26–7 capital gains tax, 41, 44, 106, 148 capital intensity, 27 captive managers, 251 Carlton United Breweries, 17 cash flow forecasting, 137–9, 288–91
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310
Enterprise and Venture Capital
Castlemaine Tooheys, 17, 35 Catalyst, 87, 90 CHAMP, 90 Christopher Columbus, xix Chrysler, 33 Churchill and Lewis small business growth model, 55–7 Cisco, 280 Citicorp, 251 clawback, 254 Cochlear, 68 COMET, 44, 69–70 common law, 101 company constitution, 107 company secretary, 109 competitive analysis, 114–6 competitive rivalry, 19 Consolidated Press, 34, 35, 85 consumer demand, 9 contributing shares, 148, 207 contribution rate, 141 convertible notes, 203–4 convertible preference shares, 206 Coopers & Lybrand, 213 copyright, 146 cost of goods sold, 26 CSIRO, 44 CSR Limited, 175 cum dividend, 203 customer decision analysis, 112–14 Dbase, 122 DEC, xx, 31, 58, 79, 260, 284 deal flow, 263 deal organisation, 263 demand types, 9–11 desired income point, 182 Development Australia Fund, 252 development risk, 173–4 dilution of equity, 51–4 directors, 108–9 discounting, 120 distributor demand, 10 dividend imputation, 105, 148–9 dividend yield, 169 DKS Pty Ltd, 37
Dogpile, 13 Doriot, General, xix double whammy, 55 down-round, 197, 209 Drucker, Peter, 214 due diligence, 172–84 Dun & Bradstreet, 114 Earnings Before Interest and Taxation (EBIT), 188 earnouts, 208 Employee Stock Ownership Plans, 147 employee contracts, 149, 209 Enterprise Workshops, 7, 215 entrepreneurs, characteristics of, 3–5 definition, 47 needed skills, 5–7 negotiating with venture capitalists, 154–62 objectives, 201 producers of business plan, 95 Espie report, 68 ex dividend date, 203 exit mechanisms, 220–35 exit risk, 184 expansion finance, 77–84 Export Market Development Grants Scheme, 77–8 export strategies, 123–25 executive summary, 97–9 exit history, 235 exit mechanisms, 220–35 FAI Insurance, 165 Farley Lewis, 118 Federal Express, 198 fee structures, 253–55 financial projections, 137–9 financial ratios, 140–1, 153 financing gap, 87 financing risk, 181–3 Fingerscan, 73 FIRST, see Funding for Innovative Research and State Technology fixed costs, 129
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Index
follow-on financing, 50–5 Ford, Henry, 8 Fosters Brewing, 17, 36 franchising, 56, 126 franked dividend, 105 free float, 227 fund fee structures, 253–5 Funding for Innovative Research and State Technology (FIRST), 74 gatekeepers, 252 Gates, Bill, 3, 181, 256 Gauss, 6 gearing, 48, 140, 202 General Motors, 116 Genetech, 278 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, 45 Goldwyn, Samuel, 142 Google, 13, 14 gross profit, 29, 139 guarantees, 209 HC Sleigh, 123 Hershey, 125 Hewlett Packard, 79 Hindle, Kevin, 45 Hoare, David, 209 hourglass effect, 76 hurt money, 169 hybrid securities, 156, 203 Iacocca, Lee, 33 IBM, 261 identifiable intangibles, 188 industrial demand, 11 Industry Fund Services (IFS), 252 industry stages, 15–16 industry standard valuations, 196 industry structures, 16–17 information memorandum, 97 initial public offering, 42, 223–7 initial screening, 167–72, 264–6 Innovation Investment Funds, 44, 71–3, 239 intangible assets, 189 intellectual property, 144–7
311
interest cover, 141, 202 investment evaluation, 266–9 Irish equity, 156, 203 James Hardie, 37 Just Jeans, 118 Kahn, Phillip, 4 Kiam, Victor, 33 Kipling, Rudyard, 112 Kleiner, Eugene, 287 Kleiner-Perkins, 278, 280, 287 Knitwit, 118 Kuhn, Thomas, 8 laddered fees, 231 learning curve, 117 leveraged buy-out, 33–7, 85–92 Levitt, Theodore, 98 Lewis, David, 248 Lewis, Michael, 280 limited company, 104–10 limited partnership, 240 Lion Nathan, 17 Lion Selection Group, 242 Lipper, Arthur, 208 living dead, 21 McDonalds, 24, 118 McKinsey & Co, 215 Macquarie Investment Trust, 229, 256 MAMECH mnemonic, 167–71 Management and Investment Company Scheme, xx management buy-in, 85 management buy-out, 85–92 management risk, 179–81 management team, 120, 142–3 manufacturing risk, 174–5 market analysis, 9–15 market capitalisation, 47 market risk, 175–9 marketing concept, 9 marketing strategy, 116–18 Marks and Spencer, 144 mega-funds, 259
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312
Enterprise and Venture Capital
Mercedes, 24 Mexican standoff, 210 mezzanine financing, 202 Microsoft, 280 MIM, 161 mission statement, 98, 215 Monier roof tile, 117 monopolistic competition, 17 Murray, Professor Gordon, 76 Nanyang Ventures, 16, 108, 199, 248, 251, 256, 261, 264 NASDAQ, 43, 280 National Australia Bank, 251 National Industry Extension Service, 83 NBN, 91 negative covenants, 156 net margin, 140, 182 Netscape, 280 net tangible assets, 188 net worth, 188 Neverfail SpringWater, 25, 58, 229 New Technology Growth Firms, 58, 64–8 non-price competition, 17 Nucleus, 117 NuKorc, 10 objectives, 98 oligopolistic structure, 17, 19 Olsen, Kenneth, xix, 31 operating margin, 180 option, share, see call option Orlando, 91 over-hiring, 217 Pacific Equity Partners, 90 packaging, 122–3 Packer, Kerry, 34, 35, 85 paradigm shift, 8 Parselle, John, 73 partly paid shares, see contributing shares partnerships, 102–3 patents, 144–6 PEG Technology, 63–4
petty patent, 146 piggy-back options, 171 Polaroid, 17 Pollitecon Publications, 75 Pooled Development Fund, 82–3, 171, 241 advantages over tax transparent trusts, 243–8 Porter, Michael, 15, 17 Porter model, 17–20 portfolio diversification, 261 positioning strategy, 116 Positive Mental Attitude (PMA), 4 post-funding valuation, 155, 185 Porter analysis, 17–20, 215 Power Breweries, 36 pre-funding valuation, 155, 185 preference shares, 205–7 price-earnings ratio, 190–2 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 58–9, 260 price-to-book value ratio, 188–9 price-to-revenue ratio, 192 pricing, 118–19 profit and loss account, 27, 140, 291–2 pro-forma accounts, 139–40, 291–2 producer demand, 11 Productivity Commission, 13 product life cycle, 126–8 profit margin, 27 promotion and advertising strategy, 125–6 proprietary company, 106–7 prospectus, 62–3, 84, 183–4 public company, 106–7 public listing, 221–8 public offering, 221–7 public-to-private, 92 quality of earnings, 54 Queen Isabella, xix Quentin, Ayers, 252 R & D intensity, 106 redeemable preference shares, 205–7, 246
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Index
re-leveraging, 229 Remington, 33 rent roll, 121 representations (in shareholders’ agreements), 156 ResMed, 68 retail funds, 241–2 return on capital employed, 26–8 return on equity, 141 reverse tranching, 270 Revlon, 9 roadshow, 226 Route 128, 79 rules of venture capital game, 49 running yield, 204 sales/employee ratio, 141, 182 St. George Development Capital Limited, 251, 261, 264, 272–3 scaledown fee structure, 253, 255 scaleup/scaledown fee structure, 254 Scientific American 111 screening criteria, 165–72, 264–6 secured debt, 86–7, 202 secured lending, 86–7, 202 seed finance, 60–76 selection criteria for VC managers, 255–9 self timing growth rate, 134–7 seller’s note, 89 share option, see call option shelf company, 107 shell company, 227–8 shortfall, 224 Silicon Valley, 79 Silver, David, 274, 283 Sloane, Arthur, 116 Sock Shop, 143 sole trader, 102 spread of shareholders, 63, 222 stag profits, 225 staged financing valuation, 196–8 start-up finance, 60–76 statute law, 101 step-up, 186–7 stock intensity, 180
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Strategic Assistance for Research & Development (START), 44, 70–1 structuring, 200–14 subordinated debt, 205 Sullivan sleep apnoea mask, 80 suppliers’ credit, 81 sustainable competitive advantage, 19, 21–3 Swinburne Institute of Technology, 45 syndication, 227 takeout mechanism, see exit mechanism Tandem Computers, 218, 278 tax deduction for research and development, 105–6 tax transparent trusts, 103, 243 technology parks, 79 Telecom Product Development Fund, 251 Telstra, 16, 251, 260 term sheet, 156, 208 third leg acquisition, 229 Tie Rack, 144 Tinshed, 61 Tooheys, 17, 35 Tooths, 17 tortions interference, 211 trading trusts, 103–4 tranching, 270 Treybig, Jimmy, 218 turnaround, 33 Tyebjee & Bruno Venture Capital Fund Model, 262–72 undercapitalisation, 31 underwriter, 224–7 underwriting agreement, 225 unique selling proposition, 21–4, 116–7 up-rates, 120 valuation risk, 183 valuation techniques, 185–99 vendor finance, 89, 232 venture capital, definition, xxi
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Enterprise and Venture Capital
venture capital funds, as a subsidiary, 260 fee structures, 253–5 financial structures, 243–6, 252 funding sources, 249 head office location, 266, 281 optimum size, 259 portfolio management, 276–87 retail vs wholesale, 241–3 returns, 277–80, 285–7 selection criteria for managers, 255–60 venture capitalists, choosing, 150–3 motives, 201
negotiating with, 154–62 post-investment activities, 213–19, 271–2 Vision Systems, 68 Volvo, 116 Wang, 79 Warhol, Andy, 123 warranties, 156, 158 Westfield, 117 wheeler dealer, xxi, 47, 91 Wilde, Oscar, 97 Wilshire, 252 working capital ratios, 140 Xerox, 16
