INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON
NUCLEAR WAR AND PLANETARY EMERGENCIES 30th Session: ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS:THE PONTIFICALACADEMY OF SCIENCES4WlX -THE “€TIORE MAIORANA‘ FOUNDATION AND CENTRE FOR SCIENTlf IC CULTURE 4OTH - H H JOHN PAUL I1 AI’OSTOLATE 25TH - CLIMATE/GLOUAL WARMING THE COSMIC RAY EFFECT; EFFECTS ON SPECIES AND BIODIVERSITY;HUMAN EFFECTS;PALEOCLIMATE IMPLICATIONS EVIDENCT FOR GLOBAL WARMING -POLLUTION: E ” 3 I N E DISRUFflNG CHEMICALS; HAZARDOUS MATERIAL; LEGACY WASTES AND RADIOACTIVEWASTE MANAGEMENT IN USA, EUROPE, SOUTHEASTASIA AND JAPAN -THE CULTURALPLANETARY EMERGENCY: ROLE OF THE MEDIA: INTOLERANCE;TERRORISM; IRAQI PERSPECTIVE;OPEN FORUM DEBATE -AIDS AND INFEcnOUS DISEASES: R W C S IN MEDICINE;AIDS VACCINE SIIWEGIES -WATER WATER CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST -ENERGY: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; MITIGATION O f GREENHOUSEWARMING -PERMANENT MONITORING PANELS REPORTS-WORKSHOPS: LONG-TERMSTEWARDSHIPOF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL; AIDS VACCINE STRATEGIESAND ETIHICS
THE SCIENCE AND CULTURE SERIES Nuclear Strategy and Peace Technology
Series Editor: Antonino Zichichi
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International Seminar on Nuclear War - 1st Session: The World-wide Implications of Nuclear War
1982
1984 -
International Seminar on Nuclear War - 2nd Session: How to Avoid a Nuclear War
1983
International Seminar on Nuclear War - 3rd Session: The Technical Basis for Peace
1981
International Seminar on Nuclear War - 4th Session: The Nuclear Winter and the New Defence Systems: Problems and Perspectives
1985 - International Seminar on Nuclear War - 5th Session: SDI, Computer Simulation, New Proposals to Stop the Arms Race 1986
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International Seminar on Nuclear War - 6th Session: InternationalCooperation: The Alternatives
1987
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International Seminar on Nuclear War - 7th Session: The Great Projects for Scientific Collaboration East-West-North-South
1988
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International Seminar on Nuclear War - 8th Session: The New Threats: Space and Chemical Weapons - What Can be Done with the Retired I.N.F. Missiles-LaserTechnology
1989
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International Seminar on Nuclear War - 9th Session: The New Emergencies
1990 - International Seminar on Nuclear War - 10th Session: The New Role of Science 1991 - International Seminar on Nuclear War - 11th Session: Planetary Emergencies 1991 - International Seminar on Nuclear War - 12th Session: Science Confronted with War (unpublished) 1991 - International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 13th Session: Satellite Monitoring of the Global Environment (unpublished) 1992
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International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 14th Session: Innovative Technologies for Cleaning the Environment
1992
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International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 15th Session (1st Seminar after Rio): Science and Technology to Save the Earth (unpublished)
1992
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International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 16th Session (2nd Seminar after Rio): Proliferationof Weapons for Mass Destructionand Cooperation on Defence Systems
1993
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International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies - 17th Workshop: The Collision of an Asteroid or Comet with the Earth (unpublished)
1993 - International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 18th Session (4th Seminar after Rio): Global Stability Through Disarmament 1994
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International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 19th Session (5th Seminar after Rio): Science after the Cold War
1995
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International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 20th Session (6th Seminar after Rio): The Role of Science in the Third Millennium
1996
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International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 21st Session (7th Seminar after Rio): New Epidemics, Second Cold War, Decommissioning, Terrorism and Proliferation
1997 - International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies -22nd Session (8th Seminar after Rio): Nuclear Submarine Decontamination, Chemical Stockpiled Weapons, New Epidemics, Cloning of Genes, New Military Threats, Global Planetary Changes, Cosmic Objects & Energy 1998 - International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 23rd Session (9th Seminar after Rio): Medicine & Biotechnologies,Proliferation 8, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Climatology & El Nino, Desertification,Defence Against Cosmic Objects, Water & Pollution, Food, Energy, Limits of Development, The Role of Permanent Monitoring Panels 1999
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International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies -24th Session: HIV/AIDS Vaccine Needs, Biotechnology, Neuropathologies, Development Sustainability- Focus Africa, Climate and Weather Predictions, Energy, Water, Weapons of Mass Destruction,The Role of Permanent Monitoring Panels, HIV Think Tank Workshop, Fertility Problems Workshop
2000
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InternationalSeminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 25th Session: Water - Pollution, Biotechnology- Transgenic Plant Vaccine, Energy, Black Sea Pollution, Aids - Mother-Infant HIV Transmission, Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy, Limits of Development - Megacities, Missile Proliferation and Defense, Information Security, Cosmic Objects, Desertification,Carbon Sequestration and Sustainability, Climatic Changes, Global Monitoring of Planet, Mathematics and Democracy, Science and Journalism, Permanent Monitoring Panel Reports, Water for MegacitiesWorkshop, Black Sea Workshop, Transgenic Plants Workshop, Research Resources Workshop, Mother-Infant HIV TransmissionWorkshop, Sequestrationand DesertificationWorkshop, Focus Africa Workshop
2001
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International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies -26th Session: AIDS and Infectious Diseases - Medicationor Vaccination for DevelopingCountries; Missile Proliferationand Defense; Tchernobyl - Mathematics and Democracy; Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy; Floods and Extreme Weather Events Coastal Zone Problems; Science and Technology for Developing Countries; Water Transboundary Water Conflicts; Climatic Changes -Global Monitoring of the Planet; Information Security; Pollution in the Caspian Sea; Permanent Monitoring Panels Reports; Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy Workshop; AIDS and Infectious Diseases Workshop; Pollution Workshop
2002 - International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 27th Session: Society and Structures: Historical Perspectives - Culture and Ideology; National and Regional Geopolitical Issues; Globalization- Economy and Culture; Human Rights - Freedom and Democracy Debate; Confrontations and Countermeasures: Present and Future Confrontations; Psychology of Terrorism; Defensive Countermeasures; Preventive Countermeasures; General Debate; Science and Technology: Emergencies; Pollution, Climate - Greenhouse Effect: Desertification,Water Pollution, Algal Bloom; Brain and Behaviour Diseases; The Cultural Emergency: General Debate and Conclusions; Permanent Monitoring Panel Reports; Information Security Workshop; Kangaroo Mother’s Care Workshop; Brain and Behaviour Diseases Workshop
2003 - International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies - 29th Session: Society and Structures: Culture and Ideology- Equity Territorial and Economics - Psychology -Tools and Countermeasures -Worldwide Stability - Risk Analysis for Terrorism -The Asymmetric Threat -America’s New “Exceptionalism” - Militant lslamist Groups Motives and Mindsets-Analysing the New Approach The Psychology of Crowds - Cultural Relativism- Economic and Socio-economic Causes and Consequences - The Problems of American Foreign Policy UnderstandingBiological Risk Chemical Threats and Responses - Bioterrorism Nuclear Survivial Criticalities Responding to the Threats - National Security and Scientific Openness - Working Groups Reports and Recommendations
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2004 - International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies- 30th Session: Anniversary Celebrations: The Pontifical Academy of Sciences 400th -The ‘Ettore Majorana’ Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture 40th - H.H. John Paul II Apostolate 25th -Climate/Global Warming: The Cosmic Ray Effect; Effectson Species and Biodiversity; Human Effects; Paleoclimate Implications; Evidence for Global Warming - Pollution: Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals; Hazardous Material; Legacy Wastes and Radioactive Waste Management in USA, Europe; Southeast Asia and Japan -The Cultural Planetary Emergency: Role of the Media; Intolerance; Terrorism; Iraqi Perspective; Open Forum Debate - AIDS and Infectious Diseases: Ethics in Medicine; AIDS Vaccine Strategies -Water: Water Conflicts in the Middle East - Energy: Developing Countries; Mitigation of Greenhouse Warming Permanent Monitoring Panels Reports - Workshops: Long-TermStewardship of Hazardous Material; AIDS Vaccine Strategies and Ethics
THE SCIENCE AND CULTURE SERIES
Nuclear Strategy and Peace Technology
"E. Majorana" Centre for Scientific Culture Erice, Italy, 18-26 August 2003
Series editor and Chairman: A. Zichichi
edited by R. Ragaini
r pWorld Scientific NEWJERSEY
*
LONDON
*
SINGAPORE
- SHANGHAI
*
HONGXONG
- TAIPEI - C H E N N A I
Published by World Scientific Publishing Co. Re. Ltd. 5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224 USA ofice: Suite 202, 1060 Main Street, River Edge, NJ 07661
UK ofice: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE
INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON NUCLEAR WAR AND PLANETARY EMERGENCIES 30m SESSION: ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS: THE PONTIFICAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 400m -THE 'ETTORE MAJORANA' FOUNDATION AND CENTRE FOR SCIENTIFIC CULTURE 40m-H.H. JOHN PAUL I1 APOSTOLATE 25'"- CLIMATEKLOBAL WARMING: THE COSMIC RAY EFFECT; EFFECTS ON SPECIES AND BIODIVERSITY; HUMAN EFFECTS; PALEOCLIMATE IMPLICATIONS; EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL WARMING - POLLUTION ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS; HAZARDOUS MATERIAL; LEGACY WASTES AND RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT IN USA, EUROPE; SOUTHEAST ASIA AND JAPAN-THE CULTURAL PLANETARYEMERGENCY: ROLE OF THE MEDIA; INTOLERANCE; TERRORISM; IRAQI PERSPECTIVE; OPEN FORUM DEBATE -AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: ETHICS IN MEDICINE; AIDS VACCINE STRATEGIES - WATER: WATER CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST - ENERGY: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE WARMING - PERMANENT MONITORING PANELS REPORTS - WORKSHOPS: LONG-TERM STEWARDSHIP OF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL; AIDS VACCINE STRATEGIES AND ETHICS
Copyright 0 2004 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved. This book, orparts thereoj may not be reproduced inanyformorby any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher.
For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy is not required from the publisher.
ISBN 981-238-820-6
Printed in Singapore.
vii
CONTENTS 1.
CELEBRATIONS
Marcel0 Sdnchez Sorondo The Pontifical Academy of Sciences Alan Cook Improving Natural Knowledge: The First Hundred Years of the Royal Society, 16661760
3
15
Guy Ourisson
The Acad6mie des Sciences and French Centralisation
21
Antonino Zickichi The 40th Anniversary of the ‘Ettore Majorana’Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture
28
Arnold Burgen The Academia Europaea
41
Rocco ButtigIione The 25th Anniversary of the Apostolate of H.H. John Paul I1
2.
CLIMATE: GLOBAL WARMING
Nir J. Shaviv Climate Change and the Cosmic Ray Connection
47
A. Townsend Peterson Climate Change Effects on Species and Biodiversity
59
B.D. Santer and T.M.L. Wigley New Fingerprints of Human Effects on Climate
69
Michael E. Mann Paleoclimate Implications for Recent Human Influence on Climate
86
David Parker and Chris.Folland Evidence for Global Warming
92
viii
3.
ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS
J.I? Myers, L.J. Guillette, Jx, I? Palanza, S. Parmigiani, S.H. Swan and KS. vom Saal The Emerging Science of Endocrine Disruption
4.
105
POLLUTION: LONG-TERM STEWARDSHIP OF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL
Carlo Giovanardi The Italian Policy for Waste Management and the Co-operation with the International Scientific Community
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James H. Clarke, Lome G. Everett and Stephen J.Kowall Containment of Legacy Wastes During Stewardship
125
William R. Fmdenburg @resented by James H. Clarke) Public Involvement and Communication in the Long-Term Management of U.S. Nuclear Waste Sites
130
AIIan G. Duncan A European Perspective on StakeholderInvolvement in Nuclear Waste Management
135
Balamurugan Gurusamy Hazardous Waste Management in SoutheastAsia
140
Tomio Kawata Responding to Fermi’s Warning: Japanese Approach to Dealing with Radioactive Waste Problems
150
Stephen J. KowaIl The U.S. Approach to the Science and Technology of Legacy Waste Management
157
5.
THECULTURAL PLANETARY EMERGENCY: FOLEOF THE MEDIA
Michael Stunner Spin in War and Peace
163
ix
6.
THECULTURAL PLANETARY EMERGENCY
Ahmad Kamal Cultural Intolerance
169
Antonio Marzano The Impact of the Planetary Emergencies on Worldwide Productivity and Cooperation with the International Scientific Community
174
Kctor Kremenyuk War on Terrorism: A Search for Focus
180
Hussain Al-Shahristani Iraq After Saddam: An Iraqi Perspective
184
7.
AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: ETHICS IN MEDICINE
Diego Buriot Health and Security: SevereAcute Respiratory Syndrome ( S A R S ) : Taking a New Threat Seriously
191
Udo Schiiklenk Professional Responsibilities of Biomedical Scientists in Public Discourse
196
J L . Hutton Ethics, Justice and Statistics
212
Ivan FranCa-Junior Is Access to HIV/AIDS Treatment a Human Right? Lessons Learned from the Brazilian Experience
218
8.
AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: AIDS VACCINE STRATEGIES
Jorma Hinkula, Claudia Devito, Bartek Zuber, Franco M. Buonaguro, Reinhold Benthin, Britta Wahren and UUSchroder Systemic and Mucosal Immune Responses Induced by HIV-1 DNA and HIV-Peptide or VLP Booster Immunization
229
X
Rigmor Thorstensson Pre-clinical Primate Vaccine Studies
243
Efwhia Vardas Preparing for Phase 1/11HIV Vaccine Trials in South Africa and Planning for Phase I11 Trials
247
9.
WATER CONFLICTS
Farhang Mehr The Politics of Water
255
Maher Salman and Wael Mualla The Utilization of Water Resources for Agriculture in Syria: Analysis of the Current Situation and Future Challenges
263
Uri Shavit, Ran Holtzman, Michal Segal, Ittai Gavrieli, Efrat Farber and Avner Vengosh The Lower Jordan River
275
Munther J. Haddadin Challenges to Water Management in the Middle East
289
Shad Sorek, K Borisov, A. Yakirevich,A. Melloul and S. Shaath Seawater Intrusion into the Gaza Coastal Aquifer as an Example for Water and Environment Inter-linked Actions
299
10.
THEPLANETARY EMERGENCIES: ITALIAN CIVIL PROTECTION
Guido Bertolaso The Italian Civil Protection Response to Planetary Emergencies and the Co-operation with the International Scientific Community (Kdeo)
11.
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THECULTURAL PLANETARY EMERGENCY Focus ON TERRORISM: MOTIVATIONS
Ahmad Kamal Report of the Open Forum Debate on Terrorism
3 13
xi
12.
ENERGY
Hishani Khatib Energy in Developing Countries - Is It a Special Case?
317
Bob van der Zwaan Some Perspectives on the Prospects of Nuclear Energy in the Developing World and Asia
326
Norman J; Rosenberg, R. Cesar Izaurralde and I;: Blaine Metting Applications of Biotechnology to Mitigation of Greenhouse Warming 335
13.
PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL MEETINGS AND REPORTS
Mother and Child Permanent Monitoring Panel Nathalie Charpak Panel Report
349
Limits of Development Permanent Monitoring Panel Hiltmar Schubert Panel Report
351
Albert0 Gonzalez-Pozo Urban Mobility in the Mexican Metropolis
359
K.C. Sivaramakrishnan Mobility in Megacities: Indian Scenario
374
World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Information Security Henning Wegener Panel Report
383
Henning Wegenel; Elliam A. Barletta, Olivia Bosch, Dmitry Chereshkin,Ahmad Kamal, Andrey Krutskikh, Axel H.R. Lehmann, Timothy L. Thomas, vitali Tsygichko and Jody R. Westby -Paper Toward a Universal Order of Cyberspace: Managing Threats from Cybercrime to Cybenvar
385
xii
Permanent Monitoring Panels on Floods and Unexpected Meteorological Events, Water and Climate Robert Clark Panel Report
43 6
Pollution Permanent Monitoring Panel Richard C. Ragaini Panel Report
43 9
Energy Permanent Monitoring Panel Richard Wilson Panel Report
443
Joseph Chahoud Syria’s Renewable Energy Master Plan: A Message from the Government
456
Andrei Gagarinski Status of Nuclear Energy
47 1
Mark D. Levine Energy Demand Growth in China: The Crucial Role of Energy Efficiency Programs
477
Risk Analysis Permanent Monitoring Panel Terence Taylor Panel Report
488
Andrey A. Piontkovshy The Pillars of International Security: Traditions Challenged
490
vladimir B. Britkov Safety as a Result of Providing Information
495
Reiner K. Huber Anticipatory Defense: Its Fundamental Logic and Implications
498
Desertification Permanent Monitoring Panel Andrew Warren Panel Report
512
xiii
Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals Permanent Monitoring Panel Stefan0 Parmigian i Panel Report
14.
516
LONG-TERM STEWARDSHIP OF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL WORKSHOP
Stephen J. Kowall and Lorne G. Everett Monitoring and Stewardship of Legacy Nuclear and Hazardous Waste Sites
519
Elizabeth K. Hocking Achieving Stewardship and Contributing to a Sustainable Society Through Stakeholder Involvement
522
A.I. Rybalchenko Radioactive Waste of Defense Activities in the 20th Century Handling and Management
526
David K. Smith, Richard B. Knap, Nina D. Rosenberg and Andrew EB. Tompson International Cooperation to Address the Radioactive Legacy in States of the Former Soviet Union
534
Igor S. Zektser Contamination and Vulnerability of Groundwater Resources in Russia
545
15.
AIDS VACCINE STRATEGIES AND ETHICS IN INFECTIOUS DISEASES WORKSHOP Joint Working Group Report of AIDS and Infectious Diseases PMP and Mother and Child Health PMP
Seminar Participants
55 1
557
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1.
CELEBRATIONS
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THE PONTIFICAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
MARCEL0 S h C H E Z SORONDO Chancellor Pontificia Academia Scientiarum, Rome, The Vatican See: Dialogo; Specola Vaticana THE NATURE AND GOALS OF THE ACADEMY The Pontifical Academy of Sciences has its origins in the Accademia dei Lincei ('the Academy of Lynxes') which was established in Rome in 1603, under the patronage of Pope Clement VIII, by the learned Roman Prince, Federico Cesi. The leader of this Academy was the famous scientist, Galileo Galilei. It was dissolved after the death of its founder but then recreated by Pope Pius IX in 1847 and given the name 'Accademia Pontificia dei Nuovi Lincei' ('the Pontifical Academy of the New Lynxes'). Pope Pius XI then re-founded the Academy in 1936 and gave it its present name, bestowing upon it statutes which were subsequentlyupdated by Paul VI in 1976 and by John Paul II in 1986. Since 1936 the Pontifical Academy of Sciences has been concerned both with investigating specific scientific subjects belonging to individual disciplines and with the promotion of interdisciplinary co-operation. It has progressively increased the number of its Academicians and the international character of its membership. The Academy is an independent body within the Holy See and enjoys freedom of research. Although its rebirth was the result of an initiative promoted by the Roman Pontiff and it is under the direct protection of the ruling Pope, it organises its own activities in an autonomous way in line with the goals which are set out in its statutes: 'The Pontifical Academy of Sciences has as its goal the promotion of the progress of the mathematical, physical and natural sciences, and the study of related epistemological questions and issues' (Statutes of 1976, art.2, 1). Its deliberations and the studies it engages in, like the membership of its Academicians, are not influenced by factors of a national, political or religious character. For this reason, the Academy is a valuable source of objective scientific information which is made available to the Holy See and to the international scientific community. Today, the work of the Academy covers six main areas: a) fundamental science; b) the science and technology of global questions and issues; c) science in favour of the problems of the Third World; d) the ethics and politics of science; e) bioethics; and fl epistemology. The disciplines involved are sub-divided into nine fields: the disciplines of physics and related disciplines; astronomy; chemistry; the earth and environment sciences; the life sciences (botany, agronomy, zoology, genetics, molecular biology, biochemistry, the neurosciences, surgery); mathematics; the applied sciences; and the philosophy and history of sciences. The new members of the Academy are elected by the body of Academicians and are chosen from men and women of every race and religion on the basis of the high scientific value of their activities and their high moral profile. They are then officially appointed by the Roman Pontiff. The Academy is governed by a President, appointed from its members by the Pope, who is helped by a scientific Council and by the Chancellor. Initially made up of eighty Academicians, of whom seventy were appointed for life, in 1986 John Paul II raised the number of members for life to eighty, side by side with a limited number of Honorary Academicians chosen because they are highly qualified figures, and others who are Academicians because of the
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posts they hold, amongst whom: the Chancellor of the Academy, the Director of the Vatican Observatory, the Prefect of the Vatican Apostolic Library, and the Prefect of the Vatican Secret Archive. In conformity with the goals set out in its statutes, the Pontifical Academy of Sciences 'a) holds plenary sessions of the Academicians; b) organises meetings directed towards the progress of science and the solution of technical-scientific problems which are thought to be especially important for the development of the peoples of the world; c) promotes scientific inquiries and research which can contribute, in the relevant places and organisations, to the investigation of moral, social and spiritual questions; d) organises conferences and celebrations; e) is responsible for the publication of the deliberations of its own meetings, of the results of the scientific research and the studies of Academicians and other scientists' (Statutes of 1976, art. 3, 9 1). To this end, traditional 'study-weeks' are organised and specific 'working-groups' are established. The headquarters of the Academy is the 'Casina Pi0 IV',a small villa built by the famous architect Piero Ligorio in 1561 as the summer residence of the Pope of the time. Surrounded by the lawns, shrubbery and trees of the Vatican Gardens, frescoes, stuccoes, mosaics, and fountains from the sixteenth century can be admired within its precincts. Every two years the Academy awards its 'Pius XI Medal', a prize which was established in 1961 by John XXUI. This medal is given to a young scientist who has distinguished himself or herself at an international level because of his or her scientific achievements. Amongst the publications of the Academy, reference should be made to three series: Scriuta Varia, Documenta, and Commentarii. The most important works, such as for example the papers produced by the study-weeks and the conferences, are published in the Scriuta Varia. In a smaller format, the Documenta series publishes the short texts produced by various activities, as well as the speeches by the Popes or the declarations of the Academicians on subjects of special contemporary relevance. The Commentarii series contains articles, observations and comments of a largely monographic character on specific scientific subjects. The expenses incurred by the activities of the Academy are met by the Holy See. During its various decades of activity, the Academy has had a number of Nobel Prize winners amongst its members, many of whom were appointed Academicians before they received this prestigious international award. Amongst these should be listed Lord Ernest Rutherford (Nobel Prize for Physics, 1908), Guglielmo Marconi (Physics, 1909), Alexis Carrel (Physiology, 1912), Max von Laue (Physics, 1914), Max Planck (Physics, 1918), Niels Bohr (Physics, 1922), Werner Heisenberg (Physics, 1932), Paul Dirac (Physics, 1933), Erwin Schroedinger (Physics, 1933), Sir Alexander Fleming (Physiology, 1945), Chen Ning Yang (Physics, 1957), Rudolf L. Mossbauer (Physics, 1961), Max F. Perutz (Chemistry, 1962), John Eccles (Physiology, 1963), Charles H. Townes (Physics, 1964), Manfred Eigen and George Porter (Chemistry, 1967), Har Gobind Khorana and Marshall W. Nirenberg (Physiology, 1968). Recent Nobel Prize winners who have also been, or are presently, Academicians may also be listed: Christian de Duve (Physiology, 1974), Werner Arber and George E. Palade (Physiology, 1974), David Baltimore (Physiology, 1975), Aage Bohr (Physics, 1975), Abdus Salam (Physics, 1979), Paul Berg (Chemistry, 1980), Kai Siegbahn (Physics, 1981), Sune Bergstrom (Physiology, 1982), Car10 Rubbia (Physics, 1984), Rita Levi-Montalcini (Physiology, 1986), John C. Polan9 (Chemistry, 1986), Jean-Marie Lehn (Chemistry, 1987), Joseph E. Murray (Physiology, 1990), Gary S. Becker (Economics, 1992), Paul J. Crutzen (Chemistry,
5 1995), Claude Cohen-Tannoudji (Physics, 1997) and Ahmed H. Zewail (Chemistry, 1999). Padre Agostino Gemelli (1878-1959), the founder of the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart and President of the Academy after its re-foundation until 1959, and Mons. Georges Lemaftre (1894-1966), one of the fathers of contemporary cosmology who held the office of President from 1960 to 1966, were eminent Academicians of the past. Under the Presidency of the Brazilian biophysicist Carlos Chagas and of his successor Giovanni Battista Marini-Bettblo, the Academy linked its activity of scientific research to the promotion of peace and the progress of the peoples of the world, and dedicated increasing attention to the scientific and health care problems of the Third World. The Presidency of the Academy is presently entrusted to the Italian physicist, Nicola Cabibbo. The goals and the hopes of the Academy, within the context of the dialogue between science and faith, were expressed by Pius XI (1922-1939) in the following way in the Motu Proprio which brought about its re-foundation: 'Amongst the many consolations with which divine Goodness has wished to make happy the years of our Pontificate, I am happy to place that of our having being able to see not a few of those who dedicate themselves to the studies of the sciences mature their attitude and their intellectual approach towards religion. Science, when it is real cognition, is never in contrast with the truth of the Christian faith. Indeed, as is well known to those who study the history of science, it must be recognised on the one hand that the Roman Pontiffs and the Catholic Church have always fostered the research of the learned in the experimental field as well, and on the other hand that such research has opened up the way to the defence of the deposit of supernatural truths entrusted to the Church...We promise again, and it is our strongly-held intention, that the 'Pontifical Academicians', through their work and our Institution, work ever more and ever more effectively for the progress of the sciences. Of them we do not ask anything else, since in this praiseworthy intent and this noble work is that service in favour of the truth that we expect ofthem'(AAS28, 1936, p. 427; Italian translation, OR, 31.10.1936). After more than forty years, John Paul II once again emphasised the role and the goals of the Academy at the time of his first speech to the Academicians which was given on 10 November 1979 to commemorate the centenary of the birth of Albert Einstein: 'the existence of this Pontifical Academy of Sciences, of which in its ancient ancestry Galileo was a member and of which today eminent scientists are members, without any form of ethnic or religious discrimination, is a visible sign, raised amongst the peoples of the world, of the profound harmony that can exist between the truths of science and the truths of faith...The Church of Rome together with all the Churches spread throughout the world, attributes a great importance to the function of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences. The title of 'Pontifical' given to the Academy means, as you know, the interest and the commitment of the Church, in different forms from the ancient patronage, but no less profound and effective in character. As the lamented and distinguished President of the Academy, Monsignor Lemaitre, observed: 'Does the Church need science? But for the Christian nothing that is human is foreign to him. How could the Church have lacked interest in the most noble of the occupations which are most strictly human - the search for truth? Both believing scientists and non-believing scientists are involved in deciphering the palimpsest of nature which has been built in a rather complex way, where the traces of the different stages of the long evolution of the world have been covered over and mixed up. The believer, perhaps, has the advantage of knowing that the puzzle has a solution, that the underlying writing is in the final analysis the work of an intelligent being, and that
6 thus the problem posed by nature has been posed to be solved and that its difficulty is without doubt proportionate to the present or future capacity of humanity. This, perhaps, will not give him new resources for the investigation engaged in. But it will contribute to maintaining him in that healthy optimism without which a sustained effort cannot be engaged in for long' ('Discorso alla Pontificia Accademia delle Scienze, 10.11.1979', inhegnumenti, II, 2 (1979), pp. 1119-1120). It was precisely in that speech that John Paul II formally called on historians, theologians and scientists to examine again in detail the Galileo case. And he asked them to do this 'in the faithful recognition of errors, by whomsoever committed', in order to 'remove the distrust that this case still generates, in the minds of many people, placing obstacles thereby in the way of fruitful concord between science and faith' (ibidem, pp. 1117-1118). A HISTORICAL SURVEY: FROM THE ACCADEMIA DEI LINCEI TO TODAY'S PONTIFICAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES The historical itinerary of the Academy is summarised in the articles written by Marini-Bettolo (1986) and by Marchesi (1988), and in broader fashion in the monograph by Regis Ladous (1994). As was observed at the beginning of this paper, the roots of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences are to be traced back to the post-Renaissance epoch. Its origins go back to the ancient Accademia dei Lincei, established in 1603 by Prince Federico Cesi (1585-1630) when he had just reached the age of eighteen. Cesi was a botanist and naturalist, the son of the Duke of Acquasparta, and a member of a noble Roman family. Three other young men took part in this initiative: Giovanni Heck, a Dutch physician aged twenty-seven; Francesco Stelluti di Fabriano; and Anastasio de Filiis de Temi. Thus it was that the first Academy dedicated to the sciences came into being, and it took its place at the side of the other Academies - of literature, history, philosophy and art - which had arisen in the humanistic climate of the Renaissance. The example of Cesi, and of the group of scholars led by him, was followed some years later in other countries - the Royal Society was created in London in 1662 and the AcadCmie des Sciences was established in France in 1666. Although he looked back to the model of the Aristotelian-Platonic Academy, his aim was altogether special and innovative. Cesi wanted with his Academicians to create a method of research based upon observation, experiment, and the inductive method. He thus called this Academy 'dei Lincei' because the scientists which adhered to it had to have eyes as sharp as lynxes in order to penetrate the secrets of nature, observing it at both microscopic and macroscopic levels. Seeking to observe the universe in all its dimensions, the 'Lincei' made use of the microscope (tubulus opticus) and the telescope (perspicillus-occhialino)in their scientific research, and extended the horizon of knowledge fiom the extremely small to the extremely large. Federico bestowed his own motto on the 'Lincei' - 'minima cura si maxima vis' ('take care of small things if you want to obtain the greatest results'). The Cesi group was also interested in the new scientific and naturalistic discoveries then coming fiom the New World, as is demonstrated by the most significant works of the college of the first 'Lincei' - the Rerum medicarum thesaurus novae Hispaniae, later known as the Tesoro Messicano, which was printed in Rome in 1628. This was a very extensive collection of new geographical and naturalistic knowledge, and contained in addition accounts of explorations canied out in the
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Americas. From the outset the Academy had its ups and downs. A few years after its foundation it was strongly obstructed by Cesi's father because he believed that within it activity was being engaged in which was not very transparent in character - for example, studies in alchemy. But after the death of Federico's father, the abundant economic resources which were now obtained thanks to Federico's inheritance, as well as the fact that renowned scholars such as Galileo Galilei, Giovan Battista della Porta, Fabio Colonna, and Cassiano dal Pozzo joined its ranks, enabled the Academy to progress and advance. The religious character of the Academy cannot be overlooked. It was placed under the protection of St. John the Evangelist who was often portrayed in the miniatures of its publications with an eagle and a lynx, both of which were symbols of sight and reason. It was therefore conceived as an assembly of scholars whose goal as one can read in its Rules, described as the 'Linceografo' - was 'knowledge and wisdom of things to be obtained not only through living together with honesty and piety, but with the further goal of communicating them peacefully to men without causing any harm'. Nature was seen not only as a subject of study but also of contemplation. Amongst the suggestions of the 'Linceografo' there is also that of preceding study and work with prayer - 'for this reason the Lynxes, before doing anything at all, must first raise their minds to God, and humbly pray to him and invoke the intercession of the saints' (cf. di Rovasenda and Marini-Bettblo, 1986, p. 18). Amongst the practices of spiritual piety of the members there was the reciting of the liturgical office of the Blessed Virgin Mary and the Davidic Psalter. For this reason, as Enrico di Rovesanda observes, 'the religious inspiration of the Lincei cannot be overlooked, as is done in many quarters, nor can it be reduced to an 'almost mystical glow of the school of Pythagoras', as has also been suggested. The high moral figure of Cesi acts to guarantee the sincere and loyal profession of its religious faith' (ibidem, p. 19). One of the mottoes of the Academy - Sapientiae cupidi - indicated the striving for constant research into truth through scientific speculation, based upon the mathematical and natural sciences but always located within a sapiential horizon. Like Galileo, whose great supporter he was, Cesi admired Aristotle but not the Aristotelians of the University of Padua who had refused to look at things through the telescope of the Pisan scientist. He was in addition rather critical of the university culture of his day. Federico Cesi also engaged in important activity of mediation between the Roman theological world and Galileo, reaching the point of advising the latter to not insist in his polemics about the interpretation of Holy Scripture so that he could dedicate himself in a more effective way to scientific research. Death struck Cesi down in 1630 when Galileo was about to finish his Dialog0 sui Massimi Sistemi, the manuscript of which Galileo wanted to send to Cesi himself so that the latter could organise its publication. After Cesi's death the activities of the Academy diminished to such an extent as to bring about its closure. The first attempts to bring the 'Lincei' back into existence took place in 1745 in Rimini as a result of the efforts of a group of scientists belonging to the circle made up of Giovanni Paolo Siomne Bianchi (known as Janus Plancus), Stefan0 Galli and Giuseppe Garampi. But the new Academy had a very short life. The attempt at refoundation made by Padre Feliciano Scarpellini (1762-1840) in Rome at the beginning of the nineteenth century met with greater success. He gave the name of 'Lincei' to a private academy that he had established in 1795. Despite a lack of funds and a whole series of difficulties, Scarpellini managed to keep the name of 'Lincei' alive and to
8 bring together in a single academic body the various scientists working in the Papal States such as the mathematician Domenico Chelini, the naturalist Carlo Bonaparte, the anatomist Alessandro Flajani, the chemists Domenico Morichini and Pietro Peretti, Prince Baldassarre Odescalchi, the physicists Gioacchino Pessuti and Paolo Volpicelli, and the physician Benedetto Viale (cf. Marini-Bettblo, 1986, p. 10). The authorities of the Papal States took new practical initiatives to re-found the Academy during the first half of the nineteenth century in response to the wishes of Pope Pius VII (1800-1823) and Leo XII (1823-1829), with the allocation of the second floor of Palazzo Senatorio in Capidoglio to the Academy as its headquarters. But in 1847 it was Pius IX who officially renewed the Academy with the name (which had already been suggested by Gregory XVI in 1838) of 'Accademia Pontificia dei Nuovi Lincei' ('the Pontifical Academy of the New Lynxes'), ensuring the drawing up of new statutes which envisaged, amongst other things, the presence of thirty resident members and forty correspondent members. During this period of activity famous astronomers and priests were present within its ranks, such as Francesco de Vico and Angelo Secchi. During the revolutionary upheavals of 1848 the Roman Republic sought to expel the Academy from the Campidoglio. However, the institution managed to keep its headquarters by using various bureaucratic manoeuvres. In 1870, following the fall of the independent Papal States and the unification of the Kingdom of Italy, the Academy divided into two different institutions: the 'Reale Accademia dei Lincei', which later became the present Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei with its headquarters in Palazzo Corsini alla Lungara, and the 'Accademia Pontificia dei Nuovi Lincei', which was transferred from the Capidoglio to the Casina Pi0 IV villa in the Vatican Gardens. One had to wait, as has already been observed, until 28 October 1936 for a further renewal of the institution, which took place in response to the insistent requests of the Jesuit Giuseppe Gianfranceschi. This scientist was Professor of Physics at the Gregorian University and had been the President of the Accademia Pontificia dei Nuovi Lincei since 1921. A new Pontifical Academy of Sciences was thus created by Pope XI by the Motu Proprio In Multis Solaciis (for an Italian translation see Marini-Bettblo, 1987, pp. 199-203. This work has an accurate summary of the life of the Academy for the years 1936-1986). The Presidency was entrusted to the Rector of the Catholic University, Padre Agostino Gemelli, who was seconded by the Chancellor, Pietro Salviucci, and by a Council composed of four Academicians. Annual (and later two-yearly) plenary sessions were proposed for all the Academicians. The accounts of the activities and the contributions of the members were published in the Acta Pontijiciae Academiae Scientiarum and later on in the Commentationes. The first assembly was inaugurated on 1 June 1937 by the then Cardinal Secretary of State, Eugenio Pacelli, the future Pope Pius XII. In discussing this period of the Academy reference should be made to the presence of such distinguished members as Ugo Armaldi, Giuseppe Armellini, Niels Bohr, Lucien Cuenot, Georges Lemaitre, Tullio Levi-Civita, Guglielmo Marconi, Robert Millikan, Umberto Nobile, Max Planck, Ernest Rutherford, Erwin Shrodinger, Francesco Seven, Edmund Whittaker, and Pieter Zeeman. During the years 1937-1946 the publications of the Academy had a largely Italian character, presenting, for example, the work of the Italian Academicians Pistolesi, Crocco, and Nobile on aerodynamics. But there were also papers by foreign Academicians such those as by E. Schrodinger in 1937 on quantum physics and by M. Tibor in 1937-1939 of an astronomical character. During the Second World War the
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Academy greatly reduced its activity but nonetheless found space for the publications of Jewish Italian scientists who had been marginalised by the race laws of 1938, amongst whom should be mentioned a group of mathematicians of Jewish descent including Tullio Levi-Civita and Vito Volterra, and others such as Giuseppe Levi, Rita Levi-Montalcini, E. FOB and G.S. Coen. Pius XI1 (1939-1958), who succeeded Pius X, did not fail to make addresses to the Academicians, even during the war years, such as the address of 30 November 1941 on the occasion of the inauguration of the fourth academic year. This address was dedicated to a long and profound reflection on the position of man in relation to the Creation and God (cf. Discorsi e Radiomessaggi, III,pp. 271-281). In the post-war period, at a time of sensitive reconstruction and the rebuilding of international relations, in the face of the great difficulties encountered at the level of scientific contacts and exchange, the Academy undertook the publication of the research results of greatest interest of the various fields of science which had been achieved during the war in its work Relationes de Auctis Scientiis ternpore belli (aa. 1939-1945). This publication was of marked importance in fostering the renewal of scientific contacts between the nations that had previously been at war. In 1946 Alexander Fleming (188 1 - 1955) was appointed Academician in recognition of his discovery of penicillin - a discovery that opened the way to the pharmacological production of antibiotics. During the 1950s, in parallel with the problems of reconstruction and the development of under-developed regions, the activity of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences centred around the questions and issues of applied science. In 1955 the study-week on trace elements was held, when for the first time the problem of agrarian production and food sources was addressed. After the election to the papacy of John XXIIl (1958), Padre Gemelli died in 1959. The Presidency of the Academy was then held by G. Lemaitre. The 1960s witnessed an exponential growth and development of science connected with electronics and the conquest of space. This gave new impetus to industry and technological advance but also to nuclear armaments. In astrophysics the discovery of new sensors and the development of radio-astronomy opened up the universe to new interpretations. Biology became directed towards the molecular study of genetics. In 1961 the Pontifical Academy of Sciences organised a study-week on the macromolecules of interest to biology, and in particular on the nucleoproteins, a subject which was then of major importance for international research. On that occasion, when meeting the Academicians, John XXIII reaffirmed the educational and cultural mission of the Church and the function of scientific progress in relation to the positive appreciation of the human person. The Pope recalled in addition that science is directed above all else towards the development and growth of the personality of man and the glorification of God the Creator: 'indeed, far from fearing the most audacious discoveries of men, the Church instead believes that every advance in the possession of the truth involves a development of the human person and constitutes a road towards the first truth, and the glorification of the creative work of God' ('Discorso in occasione del XXV dell'Accademia, 30.10.1961', in Discorsi, Messaggi e Colloqui del Santo Padre Giovanni XXlII, vol. III,p. 493). In 1962, at the time of the plenary session of that year, a study-week dedicated to astronomy which addressed the subject of cosmic radiation in space was held, guided in first person by the President of the Academy, Monsignor Lemaitre. In 1964, at the time of the pontificate of Paul VI (1963-1978), there appeared
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amongst the publications of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences the Miscellanea Galileiana of Monsignor Pi0 Paschini, who was Professor of History at the Lateran University. The Galileo case was slowly reopened, a development favoured by the reference made to it by Vatican Council II in n. 36 of Gaudium et Spes. This led to the address by John Paul 11 of 1979 to which reference has already been made. After the death of Georges Lemaitre, in 1966 Padre Daniel OConnell was made President of the Academy. A Jesuit and Irish astronomer, he had previously been Director of the Vatican Observatory and had been an Academician for life since 1964. He was also the author, together with other astronomers, of an important general atlas of the stars. The year 1967 was marked by the publication of the encyclical Popularurn Progressio, in which Paul VI brought to worldwide attention all the major problems inherent in the development of the Third World. This document also contained an appeal to engage in international scientific co-operation so that this could in all forms favour developing countries. It introduced the idea that scientific progress and advance must be guided by a 'new humanism': 'every advance of ours, each one of our syntheses reveals something about the design which presides over the universal order of beings, the effort of man and humanity to progress. We are searching for a new humanism, which will allow modem man to refind himself, taking on the higher values of love, fiiendship, prayer and contemplation' (n. 20). In harmony with the themes of the encyclical, the Academy thought it was necessary to open itself to collaboration with the scientists of the Third World and by 1968 it was already holding a study-week on the subject of 'organic matter and soil fertility', a subject which dealt with the application of science to agricultural production and the solution to the problems of hunger in the world. In 1972 for the first time a secular President was elected - the Brazilian Carlos Chagas, who had already been a member of the United Nations and the General Secretary of the first conference of the United Nations on Science and Technologies for Development. The new President imparted a new direction to the activities of the Academy, which were now more centred around solving the great problems of post-industrial society (cf. di Rovesanda, 2000). The scientific activity of the Academy was thus directed not only towards the subjects of science, which were more specific to Westem culture, but also began to be concerned, with the co-operation of Giovanni Battista Marini-Bettblo (who succeeded Chagas in 19SS), with the scientific and health care problems connected with the growth and development of the Third World ('development ethics'). The 1980s witnessed the development of new directions in scientific research which moved in the direction of the life sciences, the earth sciences, and ecology. Mankind had to face up to new problems, such as pollution, changes in the biosphere, energy reserves, and genetic manipulation. In 1982 the Academy committed itself at an international level to the promotion of peace with the drawing up of a document on nuclear armaments (cf. 'Dichiarazione sul disarm0 nucleare' ('Declaration on Nuclear Disarmament'), EV, 7, pp. 1811-1825) and devoted the next plenary session (of 1983) to the subject of 'science for peace'. In connection with that event, John Paul II appealed to members of governments to work in an effective fashion in order to remove the danger of a new war and invited States to engage in nuclear disarmament (cf. 'a sapere scientific0 edifichi la pace, 12.11.1983' ('Scientific Knowledge should Build Peace, 12.11.1983'), in Znsegnamenti, VI, 2 (1983), pp. 1054-1060). This document and appeal achieved a strong resonance in the United States of America and the Soviet Union. During the 1990s meetings and study-weeks were held which were
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dedicated to analysing the question of the prolonging of life; the question of determining the moment of death; the question of transplants and xenografts; and the question of sustainable growth and development. The issues of artificial fertilisation, cloning, and genetic manipulation were also considered. These were subjects which increasingly involved issues of an ethical character (bioethics) and which drew scientists, philosophers and theologians into dialogue. Although the usual practice of involving various disciplines was maintained, the research and the debates of the Academicians were directed in a special way towards reflection on the anthropological and humanistic dimensions of science. In November 1999 a working-group was held on the subject of 'science for man and man for science', and the Jubilee session of November 2000 was dedicated to the subject 'science and the future of mankind'. THE ROLE OF THE ACADEMY IN THE DIALOGUE BETWEEN SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT AND CHRISTIAN FAITH
In the relations which exist between Academies and the States in which they carry out their activities, the case of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences can be seen as a singular case, as indeed in basic terms the role of the small State which hosts it is also singular. During these long years this relationship has become very fertile. The Church has paid careful attention to the Academy. She has respected its work and fostered the autonomy of its scientific and organisational dynamics. Through the Academy, the Magisterium of the Church has sought to make the scientific world understand her teaching and her orientations in relation to subjects which concern the good of man and society, the complete human development of all the peoples of the world, and the scientific and cultural co-operation which should animate the relations between States. On the occasion of numerous addresses and messages directed towards the Academy by five pontiffs, the Church has been able to re-propose the meaning of the relationship between faith and reason, between science and wisdom, and between love for truth and the search for God. But through the Academy the Church has also been able to understand from nearer to hand, with speed and in depth, the contents and the importance of numerous questions and issues which have been the object of the reflection of the scientific world, whose consequences for society, the environment and the lives of individuals could not but interest her directly, 'given that there is nothing which is genuinely human which does not find echo in her heart' (cf. Gaudium et S p a , 1). The Pontifical Academy of Sciences has thus become one of the favoured forums for the dialogue between the Gospel and scientific culture, gathering together all the stimulating provocations but also the inspiring possibilities that such dialogue brings with it, almost thereby symbolising a shared growth - of both the scientific community and the Magisterium of the Church - of their respective responsibilities towards truth and good. The above survey, although general in character, dealing with the activity carried out over the sixty years since the foundation of the Pontifical Academy of Science, the subjects of the numerous meetings and study-weeks, and the publications which the Academy has produced, brings out all the contemporary relevance and the importance of the subjects which have been addressed. Scientists from all over the world, often co-operating closely with a group of philosophers and theologians, have examined questions and issues which have ranged from genetics to cosmology, from agriculture to the distribution of resources, fkom transplant surgery to the history of science, and from ecology to telecommunications. The speeches addressed by the
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Pontiffs to the Academicians, from Pius XI to John Paul II, have offered important elements of reflection not only in relation to the ethical and moral responsibility of their activities but also on the very meaning of scientific research, and on its striving for truth and an increasingly profound knowledge of reality. The subject of the relationship between science and faith, both at an epistemological and an anthropological level, has been the usual framework of almost all these papal addresses. The forms of language employed have been different as these decades have passed, and different emphases have been placed on the various questions and issues, but the attention paid to scientific work has been unchanging, as has been the case in relation to the philosophical and cultural dimensions which that work involves. Side by side with such dialogue, which we could call 'ordinary', international public opinion has been witness to certain 'out of the ordinary' events. From the mass media it has learnt about speeches of special importance for the relationship between science and faith, speeches given at the Academy in particular during the pontificate of John Paul II. Of these, reference should be made to the address with which, as has already been observed (see above section I), John Paul 11 spoke to the plenary session of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences in November 1979 to express his wish for, and then formally request, the establishment of a committee of historians, scientists, and theologians which would re-examine the Galileo case and present public opinion with a serene analysis of the facts as they occurred (Galileo, IV).The aim of this was not in a historical sense to recognise the inadvisability of the condemnation of the heliocentrism carried out four centuries beforehand by the Sant'Uffizio (something which had already been effected in 1757 with the removal of the works in question from the list of prohibited books), but rather to ensure that the historical-philosophical context of the episode, as well as its implications at a cultural level, were more illuminated, thereby clarifymg in a public way, which would be comprehensible to everybody, what had already been made clear in a narrower circle of intellectuals and experts. During a new assembly of the Academy, held on 3 1 October 1992, Cardinal Paul Poupard, in the presence of the Holy Father, presented the results of the committee and commented on the work which it had carried out. Four years later, on 22 October 1996, this time in the form of a message on the occasion of the sixtieth anniversary of its re-foundation, John Paul II once again chose the Pontifical Academy of Sciences as a qualified interlocutor to expound certain important reflections on the theory of evolution (Magistero, V.2; Uomo, Identitd Biologica e Culturale, V.3). Returning to and developing certain observations made by his predecessor Pius XII in the encyclical Humuni Generis (cf. DH 3896-3899), he now added that 'new knowledge leads the theory of evolution to no longer be considered as a mere hypothesis', thereby recognising 'that this theory has progressively imposed itself on the attention of researchers following a series of discoveries made in the various disciplines of knowledge', imposing itself also therefore on the attention of theologians and bible experts (Scienze Nuturali, Utilizzo in Teologia). It would not, however, be exact to confine only to recent years the climate of mutual listening and serene encounter on subjects of great relevance. History has also been a witness to other episodes of intense dialogue with the Roman Pontiffs in which the Academy, or some of its members, were the protagonists. This is the case, for example, of Max Planck, who wanted to make himself the interpreter in a direct way with Pius XII in 1943 on the risks of war connected with the use of armaments based upon nuclear fission (cf. Ladous, 1994, p. 144), or the close relationship between Pius
13 XI1 and Georges Lemaitre, who enabled the Pontiff to understand from closer to hand, at the beginning of the 1950s, the meaning of the new cosmological models which were by then beginning to become established in the scientific world, and the philosophical, or even theological, questions which at first sight appeared to be involved (Lemaitre, IV). In more recent years, Carlos Chagas was especially concerned in 1981 to take on the worries of John Paul II, who was still convalescing after the attack on his life, over the consequences for the planet of a possible nuclear war. He decided to himself present the studies carried out on the subject to the principal Heads of State in his capacity as President of the Academy (cf. di Rovesanda, 2000). In the letter sent to Padre George Coyne, the Director of the Vatican Observatory and a member of the Council of the Academy, a document which is certainly one of the most profound there is on the subject of the dialogue between science and faith, John Paul II observed that science has acted to purify faith and that faith has acted to generate scientific research, a truth demonstrated by the fact that modem Galilean science was born in a Christian climate with the increasing assimilation of the message of freedom placed in the heart of man. Thus, in the same letter, referring to the wider context of universities, the Pope declared that: 'The Church and academic institutions, because they represent two institutions which are very different but very important, are mutually involved in the domain of human civilisation and world culture. We carry forward, before God, enormous responsibilities towards the human condition because historically we have had, and we continue to have, a determining influence in the development of ideas and values and the course of human actions' ('Lettera a1 Direttore della Specola Vaticana, 1.6.1988' ('Letter to the Director of the Vatican Observatory, 1.6.1988'), OR 26.10.1988, p. 7.) For this to come about, the Pope stressed the importance of there being experts and places especially dedicated to such a dialogue: 'the Church, for a long time, has recognised the importance of this by founding the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, in which scientists of world-renown regularly meet each other to discuss their research and to communicate, to the wider community, the directions research is taking. But much more is required' (ibidem). And in this 'more' John Paul II saw the need, in their irreplaceable dialogue, for scientific institutions and the Catholic Church not to think in a reductive way about the settling of ancient conflicts, and also saw the more important need for mutual help in the investigation of truth and a shared growth in their responsibility for the good of the peoples of the world and their future. And it was in this logic, with this new readiness to engage in service, that the present President of the Academy, Professor Cabibbo, in his address to John Paul II on the occasion of the Jubilee plenary session on the subject of 'science and the future of mankind' (OR 13-14.11.2000, p. 6) was able to speak about the 'renewed commitment' of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences together with the Holy See to the good of the whole Church, of the scientific community, and of those men and women who search and believe. Pi0 XI, 'Motu proprio De Pontificia Academia Scientiarum, 28.10.1936: in AAS 28 (1936), pp. 421-452; Giovanni Paolo 11, 'Discorso alla Pontificia Accademia delle Scienze in occasione del 1000 anniversario della nascita di A. Einstein, 10.11.1979', in InsegnumentiII, 2 (1979), pp. 1115-1120; 'Discorso inoccasione del 500 della Rifondazione', in Insegnamenti IX, 2 (1986), pp. 1274-1285; 'Discorso in occasione della presentazione dei risultati della Commissione di
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studio sul caso Galileo, 3 1.10.1992',in Insegnamenti XV, 2 (1992), pp. 456-465; 'Messaggio in occasione del 600 della Rifondazione, 22.10.1996: in EV 15, pp. 1346-1354. BIBLIOGRAPHY For studies and works of a historical character see: E. di Rovasenda and G.B. Marini-Bettblo, Federico Cesi nel quarto centenario della nascita (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 63, 1986); G.B. Marini-Bettblo, Historical Aspects of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences (Pontificae Academiae Scientiarum Documenta, 21, 1986); G.B. Marini-Bettolo, L'attivitd della Pontijicia Accademia delle Scienze 1936-1986 (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 71, 1987); G. Marchesi, 'La Pontificia Accademia delle Scienze, luogo d'incontro tra ragione e fede', Civiltd Cattolica 139 (1988), 111, pp. 235-246; R. Ladous, Des Nobel au Vatican. La fondation de I'academie pontifcale des sciences (Cerf, Paris, 1994); P. Poupard (ed.), La nuova immagine del mondo. I1 dialog0 fra scienza e fede dopo Galileo (Piemme, Casale Monferrato, 1996); E. di Rovasenda, 'In ricordo dell'antico Presidente della Pontifica Accademia delle Scienze, C. Chagas', OR 21-22.2.2000. Some publications of the Academy on subjects referred to in this paper: P. Paschini (ed.), Miscellanea galileana, 3 vols., (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 1964); Science and Technology for Developing Countries (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 44, 1979); S.M. Pagan0 and A.G. Luciani, I documenti delprocesso di Galileo Galilei (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 53, 1984); The Artifcial Prolongation of Life and the Determination of the Exact Moment of Death (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 60, 1985); Discorsi indirizzati dai Sommi PonteJici Pi0 XI, Pi0 XI,Giovanni XXIl, Paolo VI, Giovanni Paolo II alla Pontifcia Accademia delle Scienze dal 1936 a1 1986 (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 64, 1986); The Responsibility of Science (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 80, 1988); Science for Development in a Solidarity Framework (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Documenta, 25, 1989); The Determination of Brain Death and its Relationship to Human Death (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 83, 1989); Science in the Context of Human Culture, I-II (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 85-86, 1990-199 1); Resources and Population (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 87, 1991); The Legal and Ethical Aspects Related to the Project of the Human Genome (Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia, 91, 1993); Discorsi dei Papi alla Pontifcia Accademia delle Scienze (1936-1993) (Pontificia Academia Scientiarum, Vatican City, 1994). For all the publications of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences see Publications of the Pontijical Academy of Sciences (1936-1999) (Vatican City, 1999).
IMPROVING NATURAL KNOWLEDGE: THE FIRST HUNDRED YEARS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY 1660 - 1760 SIR ALAN COOK Selwyn College, Cambridge, UK ABSTRACT
In the hundred years from the foundation of the Royal Society in 1660 to the general acceptance of Newtonian dynamics and celestial mechanics by 1760, fellows of the Society advanced theoretical and observational astronomy and biological studies. By 1760 the natural sciences were established as autonomous pursuits with their own aims and methods independent of external authority. The astronomical work of Edmond Halley and John Flamsteed and the biological studies of Leeuwenhoek, John Ray, Stephen Hales and others will be considered, as will, in particular Tycho Brahe, Kepler and Prince Federico Cesi. INTRODUCTION The Royal Society of London for Improving Natural Knowledge was founded in 1660 and by 1760 natural philosophy had taken on some of the principal features of modem science. The dynamics and celestial mechanics of Isaac Newton had become generally accepted throughout Europe; in retrospect we see them as the most spectacular feature of the new science. Newton was not alone, many other Fellows of the Royal Society contributed to develop modem science. I consider something of what they did in theoretical and observational astronomy, in biology and in establishing science as independent and autonomous. Modem science did not begin in 1660. In 2003 it is natural to recognise the achievements of the first fellows of the Accademia dei Lincei, of Galileo of course, but of others beside, and especially of the founder, Prince Federico Cesi. There were other precursors of the Royal Society. Fellows of the Society were familiar with the work of Johannes Kepler that led very directly to Newton’s achievements. If modem science began before 1660, it had not fully attained its present form by 1760. Ideas of history in particular were very far from those of today. For all the debts to the past and unresolved issues for the future, the ideas and methods of science did change greatly in the first century of the Royal Society and fellows of the Society did much to bring that about. The Royal Society was a society of independent scholars. The government neither supported nor directed it but we have a very important privilege in our Royal Charter, granted by Charles I1 in 1662. It conferred the right to print and publish despite the monopoly of the Stationers’ Company of London. Fellows of the Society took advantage of it to publish important works. The Philosophiae naturalis principia mathernatica (1687) of Newton is by far the most influential for the development of modem science, but biological works have also proved very important. Together with the journal, the Philosophical Transactions, and the extensive correspondence camed on by the first secretary of the Society, Henry Oldenburg, they made the studies of fellows of the
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Society known throughout Europe. Robert Boyle, many of whose works European scholars knew and possessed, was the fellow most admired in Europe. The public face of the Society was publishing, the private life was no less important in advancing modem science. Small groups of Fellows were wont to move to some coffee house (numerous in London) after the formal weekly meetings and there to engage in perhaps more speculative talk. Independence, important privileges, an open and sociable community, those were important characteristics of the early decades of the Royal Society when its fellows were advancing natural knowledge and laying the foundations of modem science ASTRONOMY In Rome in 1611 Galileo set up his new telescope on the Gianicolo and Prince Cesi and other Linceans saw for the first time the rough Moon, Venus like a crescent Moon, the satellites of Jupiter, and Saturn with his two ears. Galileo did indeed set astronomy on new paths, but different ways were taken in London fifty years later. London astronomers took up the challenges of understanding the results of Kepler and of improving the methods of Tycho Brahe. Kepler’s laws of planetary motion only made sense for a heliocentric solar system. By about 1680 Christopher Wren, Robert Hooke and Edmond Halley had found that both Kepler’s first law, that the orbit of a planet was an ellipse, and his third law, that the square of the period of a planet is proportional to the cube of its distance from the Sun, implied that the force between the planets and the Sun was as the inverse square of the distance. When the three of them took coffee together in January 1684 after a meeting of the Royal Society, they realised they could not show that an orbit under an inverse square law of force had to be an ellipse. More than six months later Halley visited Newton in Cambridge and put the question to him. Newton’s response became the Philosophiae naturalis principia rnathematica. Halley not only set Newton thinking, he edited the manuscript, saw it through the press and paid for it, and published and sold the book. Only Newton could have written Principia, but without Halley it would not have been born.’ We may not use Newton’s geometry today, the observations for which he had to account were limited indeed compared with the present wealth and extent of physical knowledge, but his methods are still ours - construction of an abstract model, the behaviour of which can be worked out mathematically and comparing it numerically with observation. Kepler’s laws were the challenge that stimulated Newton. John Flamsteed was gripped by the need to improve the catalogue of positions of stars that Tycho Brahe had made, and to do so using the new astronomical techniques that were coming to the fore at about the time of the formation of the Society. Adrien Auzout in Pans and Robert Hooke in London were maintaining that telescopic sights could be used to determine the directions of stars better that the open sights that Brahe (and after him Johann Hevelius) had used. Telescopes were especially effective with a micrometer in the eyepiece. At the same time clock makers in England and France were making the pendulum clock into a precision instrument. If a telescope were mounted on a wall so that it rotated in the meridian, the angle at which a star crossed the meridian, as determined with the
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micrometer telescope, gave the declination of the star, while the time of crossing, measured with a good clock, gave the right ascension. Halley had a micrometer telescope and a good clock when, as a very young man, he spent a year on St Helena and measured the positions of stars not seen from Paris or London. While he could not determine absolute positions, he produced the first catalogue with the new instruments. He became renowned throughout Europe.* Flamsteed meanwhile had been appointed His Majesty’s Astronomer Royal, the only fellow of the Royal Society paid to do science. At first the Society was not directly involved, but after Newton became President in 1704, he was appointed, together with a few other fellows, to be Visitors to oversee the work of the Astronomer Royal. Flamsteed was not pleased. Soon after Halley had come back from St Helena, Flamsteed was able to set up his mural telescope at Greenwich and then for the next forty years devoted himself to his telescopes and producing his Historia Coelestis, containing his observations and the catalogue of fixed stars derived from them. It was a great achievement. Alas, it was obsolete almost as soon as Flamsteed was dead. Halley discovered the proper motion of stars, that they move relative one to another, and James Bradley discovered the aberration of starlight, the composition of the velocity of light with that of the Earth about the Sun. The fixed stars were not fixed as Flamsteed and everyone else had supposed, and future star catalogues would have to allow for that. BIOLOGY The astronomical achievements of fellows of the Royal Society owed more to their predecessors of the north than to Galileo. Biologists among the fellows of the Society clearly took up the same topics as those to which the founders of the Lincei, and especially Prince Cesi himself, had devoted themselves. In 1624 Galileo sent Cesi a microscope, of what construction is not known. With it Cesi made many studies of the anatomy of plants, especially of fungi and seeds.3 Not until the last two decades or so have the scope and originality of his work become known. John Ray however knew about it and referred to it in his Historia Plantarum, though in how much detail is not clear. He learnt of it from a publication of the Lincei that appeared only in 1651, twenty years after Cesi had died. The book was the Mexican Thesaurus, an edited version of the account of Mexican animals and plants produced by the Spanish explorer Francisco Hernandez, to which Fabio Colonna added a note on Cesi’s microscopic studies that Ray quoted almost word for word. Ray also knew of the scheme for the classification of plants that Cesi had d e ~ i s e d .Anatomical ~ studies with the microscope, the first serious attempt at a classification based on the characters of the plants and not on such matters as medical uses, to those were added the first studies of fossils. Cesi’s estates at Acquasparta had large deposits of fossil wood. Cesi identified them as remains of once living trees and studied them microscopically. The Royal Society might be said to be the centre of microscopical anatomy, of plants and animals both, at the end of the seventeenth century. Three notable books were published with the imprimatur of the Society. The Micrographia of Robert Hooke is probably the one the best known today. It is a collection of studies of a wide variety of objects, animal, vegetable and mineral. Nehemiah Grew in The Anatomy of Plants described the structures that he had found in plants by systematic microscopical
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investigations. Marcello Malpighi of Bologna collected his microscopical studies of plants and chicken eggs in his Anatome Vegetale. Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, in the Netherlands, sent his observations to the Society, where some of his specimens still survive among his correspondence. Even John Locke, staying in Montpellier for his health, used a primitive single-lens microscope to study the eggs of insects from which a red dye was made.5 Taxonomy is the study of how living creatures are related in species, genera and so on. John Ray introduced new criteria for classification in the Historia Piscium, an account of fishes that he completed after the death of Frances Willughby.6 The many excellent illustrations made it very expensive and put the Society, which published it, in financial difficulties. Ray broke away, from old schemes based on supposedly authoritative accounts from long ago and instead used external morphology to determine relations between types of fish. That may seem primitive compared with using DNA or breeding habits to determine genetic relations, but it remains the only means by which many fossils can be classified. Later Linnaeus (who knew something of the microscopic work of Cesi) developed his well-known binomial scheme. There seems to be a clear sequence from the classification of Cesi, to that of Ray and then on to Linnaeus. Francisco Stelluti, who published Cesi’s studies of fossils after Cesi’s death, misunderstood them and suppressed or weakened Cesi’s conclusions that the fossils were remains of once-living organisms. Sir George Ent had received samples of Cesi’s wood from Cassiano dal Pozzo and they were shown at meetings of the Royal Society. John Evelyn (in Sylva) and Robert Hooke (in Micrographia) both concluded that they had once been pieces of trees. Fellows of the Royal Society were most certainly interested in fossils, especially objects such as shells that seemed to be like the shells of living creatures, and yet were not the same. John Ray, crossing the Alps from Switzerland into Italy in 1664, saw many in the alpine rocks and considered at some length various ideas about how they came to be, such as God put them there to mystify us. He concluded that they were indeed the remains of creatures that had once lived in a sea where the Alps now were. Robert Hooke in Micrographia, and Edmond Halley, who saw shells in rocks near Harwich on the east coast of England, thought the same.7 By the time of the foundation of the Royal Society, Cesi had been dead for thirty years and it is not easy to assess how well his works were known in England. Many of the drawings that recorded his microscopical studies passed into the collections of Cassiano dal Pozzo. Evelyn and Ray may have learnt of Cesi’s work when they saw dal Pozzo’s collection in Rome in 1644 and 1664 respectively.8 Sir George Ent also corresponded with Cassiano. There are copies of the Mexican Thesaurus in the Royal Society, and the British Library, but not in the University Library, Cambridge. Ray evidently knew it when he came to write the Historia Plantarum, but did he himself have a copy? As for Hooke, Grew and Malpighi, none of them mentioned Cesi. In the early decades of the eighteenth century, Stephen Hales FRS, who died in 1761, introduced new mechanical Newtonian ideas into the study of living creatures with his investigations into blood pressure and flow, published in Haemostasis, and into the rise of sap in plants, published in Vegetable Statics.’ Before him studies of living creatures were essentially anatomical, of structures, he asked how they worked mechanically.
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WHAT IS MODERN SCIENCE?
In what ways can the astronomy and biology of the first century of the Royal Society be said to be ‘modem’? In one important respect our predecessors were not modem. At the end of his life Newton had prepared a general chronology, including biblical chronology, for the personal use of Queen Caroline. After his death it came to be published and drew criticism from Etienne Souciet, a French abbe, who considered that Newton had misdated the Siege of Troy and the Voyage of the Argonauts. Halley came to Newton’s defence in two papers in Philosophical Transactions, arguing that Newton had correctly interpreted the astronomical evidence on which he had based those supposed dates. The distinction we make between myth and history was not yet clear.” What is modem science and what do we mean by it? A few characteristics that developed in the first century of the Royal Society do at least seem essential to modem science. Newly developed instruments, telescopes and microscopes, were used to look further into the heavens and probe deeper into the structures of objects living and inanimate. Clocks became increasingly reliable and precise so that time, once a psychological sensation, became a definite measurable physical variable. Mathematics was used to summarise observations, in the form of statistics, as summary formulae and in incipient set theory. Above all Newton showed how to set up an abstract analogue or model of a natural system, how to work out its behaviour and how to compare that behaviour numerically with observation. Newton and his contemporaries may not have made a clear distinction between history and myth, but they did realise that the world and its contents had not been made once and for all in the relatively recent past. Thus Halley estimated the ages of lakes and seas from their salinity and the rate at which rivers brought in salt. He also indicated that the Moon was speeding up in her orbit about the Earth, and later found the proper motion of stars.” The World was changing. Fossils too, showed that both the rocks and their contents had not always been as they are now. Those were disturbing ideas for traditional preconceptions; they aroused hostility in the 1660’s but were tacitly accepted by many in the 1760’s. New and improved instruments, new discoveries, new ideas, soon became widely known through printed publications. Prince Cesi himself had set that out as a principal aim of his new academy and the Royal Society actively followed his precepts, whether the fellows knew of them or not. The new discoveries would hardly have been made and if made, probably not published, had the Royal Society accepted the authority of the past, or of divines, or of philosophical schemes. The motto of the Royal Society is ‘Nullius in Verba’. Its exact meaning is debatable, but it might be paraphrased as ‘Do not believe text books’. Again, Cesi affords a precedent. In 1615 in a lecture in Naples, Del natural desiderio di supere, he asserted the human duty to study the natural world for itself and to make known the results. He strongly criticised all institutions (universities as well as ecclesiastical authorities and followers of Aristotle) that claimed authority over natural knowledge.12In the course of the first century of the Royal Society, its Fellows helped to establish the idea of science as an autonomous enterprise with its procedures determined by the phenomena being investigated, setting its own aims and methods, and independent of extraneous authority, whether historical, philosophical or religious.
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NOTES See Cook, Alan, Edmond Halley, Charting the heavens and the seas (Oxford, 1998),pp.147, 148. 2. See Cook, loc.cit., (note 1) Ch.3. For Cesi as botanist, see Pignatti, S and Mazzolin, G.: Federico Cesi Botanico, pp. 3. 212- 223, in Convegno celebrativo del IV centenario della nascita di FedericoCesi, (Acquasparta, 7-9 ottobre 1985) Atti dei Convegni Lincei 78, Roma, Academia dei Lincei, 1986. Ray, John, Historia Plantarurn (London, 1674), p.132; Hernandez, Francisco et al. 4. - Rerum Medicarum Novae Hispaniae Zkesaurus seu plantarium, animalium, mineralium MexicanoramHistoria. (Roma, 1651). 5. Hooke, Robert, Micrographia (London 1665); Grew, Nehemiah, Zke Anatomy of Vegetables (London 1672); Malpighi. Marcello, Anatome Plantarum (London 1675); for Locke see Lough, John,1953, John Lockes travels in France, 1675-9. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Ray, John Historia Piscium (London, 6. Evelyn, John, Sylva (London, 1664) pp.95-7. Hooke, Robert, Micrgraphia 7. (London, 1665), PP.105-7, 110-112. Ray, John 1673, Observations topographical physiological and moral (London), 499 pp. + Catalogus Stirpium ; for Halley’s comments, see Journal Book Copy, Royal Society of London, for 1 August 1688. Haskell, F. and McBurney, Henrietta, The Paper Museum of Cassiano dal Pozzo, 8. Visual Resources, 14, (1998), 1-17. The Diuiy of John Evelyn ed. J S de Beer. (Oxford, 1955) Vol 2, p.277. For Ray’s visit to the Cassiano collectiion, see Skippon, Philip, An account of a journey through part of the Low Countries, Germany, Italy and France, in A and J Churchill, 1732, A Collection of Voyages and Travels (London) pp. 361-736 and Index Hales, Stephen, Vegetable Statics (London, 1727); Haemeostaticks, vo1,II of 9. Statical Essays (London, 1733) 10. For Newton’s chronology, see Cook, Halley, loc.cit., (note 1) p. 400 11. See Cook, Halley, loc.cit., (note l), pp. 225-8,346,348-9. 12. For Cesi’s lecture, see Montalenti, Giuseppe, Introduzione a1 Convegno, in Convegno celebrativo del IV centenario della nascita di Federico Cesi, (Acquasparta, 7-9 ottobre 1985, 1oc.cit. (note 3)s. 1.
THE ACADEMIE DES SCIENCES AND FRENCH CENTRALISATION GUY OURISSON AcadCmie des Sciences, Strasburg, France INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
I hope the reader will accept a few highly personal introductory remarks, to explain why I am sensitive to the extent to which France remains defacto deeply, instinctively, Parisocentric, even in an age of global science. I was appointed to the Faculty of Sciences of Strasbourg in 1955 by the General Director of Higher Education in the Ministry. The University of Strasbourg was not consulted. He asked me to promise that I would stay there "at leastfive years", and signed the appointment letter. Fifty years later, after I have, in hundreds of scientific and administrative meetings, forcefully spoken in the name of the non-Parisians, I still meet colleagues or administrators who simply cannot believe that I still do not even have a small flat in Paris. I have been a member of the AcadCmie since 1981. My appointment was signed by the President of the Republic; it carries a pension, something that the French (among others) like very much (although its annual amount is about the monthly minimum wage, but it is drawn directly from the TrCsor Public, from the State's kitty... in earlier times it would have been drawn directly from the King's purse). In 1997, I was elected Vice-president of the Acadtmie, i.e. defacto Presidentelect, and thus in 1999-2001, for the first time ever, a "non-resident" (read: a nonParisian) occupied this exalted position since the foundation of the AcadCmie in 1666. I did in fact reside, Mondays through Thursdays, in a small studio on the premises; however, my successor being of course a Parisian, this studio was converted promptly into offices: the prospect that another "provincial" could be elected as President in the near future is negligible. The AcadCmie des Sciences is still very much a Parisian institution open to nonParisian members. WARNING I am a chemist, not a historian. I therefore feel unable to provide the eminent participants of this meeting with original and learned views, based on my own study of our Archives and revealing original documents. I have consulted our excellent Director of the Archives, Mme Florence Greffe, who gave me the titles of the books I should absolutely read if I wanted to sound informed.' This I did, and my text is based on these readings, as well as on my personal experience. This essay has therefore no historical value, but hopefully may constitute a testimony. GENERAL The word "Academie" (or "AcadCmie") leads to 246,000 Web sites through Google. Many are French sites, and lead to the 5 Academies of the Institut de France, but also to the French National AcadCmies (de MCdecine, de Pharmacie, de Technologies, etc., not part of the Institut de France), to the many regional Academies, often very poor institutions with a very rich and long history, to the US or
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Dutch Academies." The only ones we consider in this Symposium are those we regard to-day as the "National" ones: the Accademia dei Lincei, the Royal Society, the Prussian (now Berlin-Brandenburg) Academy, the National Academies US, and many others, now part of the international "families of Academies" : IAP, IAC, ALLEA.. . and of course the international ones like the Pontifical Academy or Academia Europzea. WHAT DO THESE ACADEMIES DO? One of us used to say, of course only for the French Academie : Theymeet, They vote to change their Statutes, They count their dead,"' They vote to elect new members, They vote to select laureates for their prizes, They meet, they vote, they count.. . .. . This is of course true, but largely incomplete : They also publish, They organise meetings, They prepare reports, They take part in international relations, They foster the creation of useful agencies. Thev mblish: A traditional activity of the Academie has been to publish scientific literature. With their British counterparts the Transactions, the Comptes-Rendus are one of the oldest continuously published scientific journals in the world. Since their heyday in the late XKth Century, they have progressively declined in importance as many more media became available, but they are regaining strength after what appeared to be their demise. They now publish about 10,000 pages of scientific original documents each year; we are however not happy at all with their poor performance as regards citation data. We should not forget that these journals in fact invented the modem publication procedure, where the author submits his publication proposal to one or two referees who advise for or against publication; in modem journals, refereeing is usually done under the cloak of anonymity, whereas in Comptes Rendus, tradition was that you should bring your manuscript in person to one of the members, who would read it and accept it, ask for changes, or reject it. I had to bring my first publication to the very old and powerful Marcel Delepine on a Monday, in his apartment; he asked me courteously to explain it briefly, and it was published the following Monday. I am not sure it deserved such rapid publication. Anyway, now, the process is less personal, referees are not only the Members of the AcadCmie and remain anonymous, but.. . publication takes much longer, even with electronic gadgetry. The AcadCmie also publishes reports, which are examined below. Thev meet and organise meetings: For many years, the meetings of the Academie were used to show Science. Some classical examples are : The presentation of "novel" fossils by Cuvier;
23 The demonstration of the effect of an electric current on a magnetic needle by Arago, following his description to the Academie, the preceding week, of (Ersted's results; The presentation by Pasteur of his sterile vials which he had opened in the clean air of the Mer de Glace; The presentation by Becquerel of his photographic plates which had been darkened not by light but by the "rays" emitted by uranium salts, etc, etc.; The presentation by Friedel of the discovery of radioactivity by Marie and Pierre Curie. Examples abound; but this is all past, and that fashion is apparently gone. In more than 20 years of active participation, I have never seen any experimental demonstration nor any presentation similar to the classical ones mentioned above. However, from the lectures, long or short, presented during our meetings, I have often gathered up-to-date information on the most diverse problems. From the way light passes through holes smaller than its wavelength, to the depth at which Antarctic penguins dive to catch fish; from new materials for car catalytic converters, to the disposal of fission products in a nuclear economy; from the concatenation of molecules into molecular knots or trefoils, to some news about prime numbers, etc. Reading general scientific journals, like Nature or Science, or specialised ones, is of course another way to achieve the same results, but one should not downplay the usefulness of the Academie from that point of view. It is true however that the benefit is restricted to the attendees, that the august Meeting Room is as ill-adapted as possible to presentations to the public, and that most of us have not learnt the delicate art of speaking to the public at large, journalists or TV people, or even to colleagues of other denominations. Another mode of transmission of scientific information is, in my view, much more efficient. It is linked with what has become in recent years a major contribution of the AcadCmie: the organisation of scientific meetings. Some of these are organised in the traditional way, with a roster of invited speakers and a programme leaving some time for discussions; the next one will be on "Water", and its wide-ranging programme will probably attract 200-300 participants. Some of these meetings are organised jointly with another of the National Academies, for instance, with the Academie de MCdecine on medical themes, others with a foreign Academy"'. The original advantage of the AcadCmie in organising these meetings is that it can cut across fields and disciplines more easily than the specialised scientific societies. It can also organise bi-national meetings, and has done so with the Academies of Spain, of the US, of Canada, of Russia and of China. In my personal experience, another useful activity of our AcadCmie has been to take advantage of its solemnity and undisputed seriousness to experiment with other types of meetings. I have personally invested much time in experimenting with a small number of young participants, strictly selected, and secluded in an isolated place for the duration of the meeting : The "Scientia Europa?aB"" meetings brought together 50 young" European scientists for five days, chosen from among approx. 350 nominees proposed as exceptionally good by the various European Academies (+ MPG, + CNRS, etc). "Exceptionally good" people should not require a programme; the posters they presented and discussed defined the programme. Seven such meetings have lured 350 participants from 35 European countries. Unfortunately, this highly successhl experiment
24
requires generous sponsors, and the ones we had found did not fare well on the Stock Market.. . Meetings on multidisciplinary topics, with a group of 20 young European participants, again good enough to take the shock of mixing hard scientists with archaeologists, or even with artists; there again, we met success on themes like "Physics of the isolated molecule" or "Surfaces", perhaps mostly because the good image of the Acadtmie could open the doors of a very beautiful domain in the South Alps for us, in a very generous Foundation. Meetings on organisation problems: a meeting co-organised with the German Leopoldina and the Junge Akademie dealt with a comparison of the problems encountered by young scientists in France and Germany at the beginning oftheir careers. 20 participants: 10 each from each country, 10 administrators of programmes intended to help beginning independent scientists (CNRS, MR, Volkswagen Stiftung, A. von Humboldt Stiftung, MPG.. .), 10 beneficiaries of these programmes. We shall continue. They prepare reports: In the early years of the AcadCmie, the King and his ministers considered it quite normal, as they were spending money on the AcadCmie and its Members, to ask them to contribute to the welfare of the Kingdom. A classic example of this activity has been the search, in France as in England with the Royal Society, of ways to measure longitude at sea: claims of ownership of newly discovered islands depended directly on this mastery, and this depended in turn on the development of reliable and sturdy chronometers. The presence, on the premises of the AcadCmie, of the "Bureau des Longitudes", is testimony to this activity. However, it is rather interesting that there were periods in the 19" century when a request for Reports was considered as an infringement on the real, exalted goals of the AcadCmie, and was quite efficiently resisted until the practice disappeared. Thus, it was a secular revival when, some 30 years ago, our Permanent Secretary Paul Germain obtained from the President of the Republic, Giscard d'Estaing, the request to prepare a report on "The state of mechanics in France". This led to intense work, and to the publication of the first "modem" report of the AcadCmie. In 1998 again, the President of the Republic, Jacques Chirac, asked the AcadCmie, through its then President Jacques-Louis Lions, to produce a series of reports on some general, worldwide problems. The preparation and publication of these reports demonstrated the capacity of the AcadCmie not only to mobilise its Members, but also to enlist the help of outside scientists - and not only, as some have malignantly suggested, of prospective candidates for election. Emboldened by the success of this endeavour, the AcadCmie suggested and accepted from an Interministerial Committee the charge of preparing Reports on Science and Technology each year, against a reasonable subsidy, which now constitute a major series of highly interesting publications, a sort of encyclopzediaby instalments."" They take part in international relations: Leibniz and Newton were "Membres" of the AcadCmie at its foundation. Note : not "Membres Ctrangers". Science is global ;like the other Academies, the AcadCmie tries to maintain and to enliven a vast network of inter-academic exchanges :
25
It now contains in its membership approximately 140 foreign members; it is true that, for most of them, it is only an honour, but some do take part actively in some of the activities of the AcadCmie; The AcadCmie entertains inter-academic exchanges of ”name-lectures’’ with the Royal Society, the Netherlands Academy, the Lincei; It plays an active role in the international organisations of Academies : the InterAcademy Panel ( U P ) , the InterAcademy Council (IAC), the InterAcademy Medical Panel (IAMP), the All-European Academies (ALLEA), the European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), the ConfCrences Amaldi, and it entertains close relations with ICSU, with the UE, with developing countries (via TWAS), and with the Scientific Unions. It is a rather recent development that the AcadCmie has strengthened its links with the French Foreign Office, in different ways: in selecting scientists to take part in international meetings; in helping some Scientific Councillors of our Embassies to evaluate scientific proposals of subsidies they receive (for meetings, for post-doctoral fellowships, etc.); in using visits of its Members to conference sites to organise informal meetings of their retinue of friends and colleagues with the Scientific Councillors, and thus to enlarge their basis of operations. It is true that the international alibi is not enough to make a useless action a good one. But it is also true that, in the scientific field, an action limited to its national dimensions is most often useless. They foster the creation of useful agencies: Like Queen Victoria (in a probably apocryphal declaration), the AcadCmie “may have little power, but is not devoid of influence”. It has used its influence to obtain the creation of informal organisations that later developed into very important agencies. LA MAIN A LA PATE: This is a programme resulting from the visionary and missionary work of Georges Charpak, Yves QuCrC and Pierre LCna, to innovate the teaching of experimental sciences in primary schools. It started as an experiment, wisely restricted to a few groups of children, and is progressively invading the whole tissue of primary education in France. This imaginative programme remains under the operational control of the Academie, but is being developed progressively, in France and in several foreign countries, notably in China, with the necessary modifications. The Ministry of Education has so far wisely refrained from appropriating this programme, which, despite its success, is still considered by its staunchest proponents as experimental - to avoid the freeze that would result from its transformation into a nation-wide official curriculum. But in a longer perspective, the destiny of La Main ci la Pite is not to be a permanent part of the AcadCmie, which has simply nurtured it, and has probably made it viable by protecting it in its infancy. The same is true of the Fondation nationale Arfred Kastler, which was set up as a service of the AcadCmie to try and improve the way foreign researchers, young or already established, were received in France: to inform them of the formalities before their arrival, to work with our foreign visitors to evaluate what may have been negative during their stay, with the research organisations and ministries to improve these sore points, to try and set up competent offices in the various Universities and
26 research centres to handle local problems, to exchange information between these centres, etc. The "FnAK" is now about ten years old; it has been remarkably successful in its endeavours, and had grown progressively into the largest service of the AcadCmie, budget- and personnel-wise. This very success has led to technical difficulties, and to the decision to find another administrative structure for the FnAK, which is now housed by the CitC Internationale Universitaire de Paris, as an autonomous component of this large organisation. In this case also, the destiny of the FnAK had not been to remain a permanent part of the AcadCmie ; however, it is quite certain that, without the protection of the Academie during the infancy of FnAK, this would not have been taken seriously by the various Ministries and agencies which have accepted to launch it and have ensured its growth. A further word about centralisation. The Academie has recognised, about the time it was getting ready to elect me as its Vice-president, that it now comprised a fair number of non-Parisian members. Our Permanent Secretary, Jean Dercourt, set up a series of meetings outside Paris. In the major Centres, the local Members are asked to set up a programme of two days, organised often in cooperation with the regional AcadCmie. Often, Members "exiled" from these Centers to Paris are invited to participate ; in some cases, their "return" is a major event for the local University and for the local newspapers. It is too early to really gauge the efficacy of these Meetings, but the effort must be pursued. Academies have to invent new ways of remaining useful, if they do not want to become dead bodies: the pride of their members in their membership is not in itself a justification for their perpetuation!
' Some sources : Roger Hahn - The Anatomy of a Scientific Institution - The Paris Academy of Sciences, 16761803, University of California Press, Los Angeles, London, 1971. Maurice Crosland - Science under Control - The French Academy of Sciences 1795-1914, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992. Elisabeth Badinter - Les Passions intellectuelles, 2 vol. , Fayard, Pans, 1999. Academie des Sciences - Rhglement, usages et science dans la France de I'absolutisme (Proceedings of a Colloquium - 1999), Lavoisier, Paris, 2002. li Also to the French regional administrative divisions of the Ministry of Education called AcadBmies, to Dance or Soccer Academies, to Billiard Academies, etc.
li' The total Membership of the Academie was defined, not the annual flux of new Members as in some other Academies. Counting the dead used therefore to be an important occupation. Now, it is the total number of Members under 80 years of age.
List of Symposia organised on the premises of the Acaddmie in 2002 and 2003: "Transferts de matiere a la surface de la terre" "Effet de sene : impacts et solutions. Quelle credihilite ?" "Cellules souches et therapie cellulaire" "L'irnmunite innee - De la drosophile a l'homme" "Chimie et nanosciences" "Les risques nucleaires" "Les risques chimiques" "La skurite sur la toile Internet" and two of the most recent inter-academy ones : "Chemistry and Mathematics : two scient$c languages ofthe 21" Century", organised by the Leopoldina with the participation of the Gattingen Academy and Academie des Sciences iv
27
"L'immunitd inn& - De la drosophile ci I'homme", organised with the Academy of Medical Sciences (UK)
" Registered trade-mark of the Academie. "I "Youth"should be defmed. I usually propose saying that "young" means no more than 5 years oldet than myself. However, in the case of the Scientia E u r o p m meetings, the limit was fixed at 40 years old.
vii
. ..
. . . .. . a
List of the Reports published by the AcadCmie. Etudes sur l'environnement - De l'echelle du territoire a celle du continent, De la transgenese animale a la biotherapie chez l'homme Les plantes genetiquement modifiees Rapport biennal sur la science et la technologie en France - Synthese 1998-2000 Systematique - Ordonner la diversite du Vivant Le monde vegetal - Du genome a la plante entiere Sciences aux temps ultracourts - De l'attoseconde aux petawatts La statistique Systemes rnoleculaires organises - Carrefour de disciplines I'origine de developpements industriels considerables La chimie analytique - Mesure et socikte Materiaux du nucleaire Radiochimie - Matiere radioactive et rayonnements ionisants Le medicament / Medicinal drugs Physiologie animale et humaine - Vers une physiologie integrative / Animal and human physiology - a step towards integrative physiology Developpement et applications de la genomique - L'aprks-genome Les neurosciences fonctionnelles et cognitives : recherches sur la physiologie et les pathologies du systeme nerveux Exploitation et surexploitation des ressources marines vivantes Stratospheric ozone Contamination des sols par les elements en traces: les risques et leur gestion / Soil contamination by rare elements: risk management L'ozone stratospherique Impact de la flotte aerienne sur I'environnement atrnospherique et le c h a t / The impact of aircraft fleets on the atmospheric environment and on the climate Aspects moleculaires, cellulaires et physiologiques des effets du cannabis / Molecular, cellular and physiological considerations appertaining to the effects of cannabis Problems associated with effects of low doses of ionising radiations Pollution atmospherique due aux transports et sante publique / Atmospheric pollution caused by transportaion and its effects on public health L'avenir de la recherche universitaire - Le devenir des docteurs des universites frangaises Valorisations non alimentaires et non Bnergetiques des produits agricoles / Development of tgricultural products for purposes other than food or energy Etat de la recherche toxicologique en France La recherche scientifique et technique dans le domaine de 1'6nergie Perspectives Bducatives des formations techniques et professionnelles. L'appareil &information sur la science et la technique Quelle place pour la m6trologie en France a l'aube du 216 Siecle ?
THE 40th ANNIVERSARY OF THE ‘ETTORE MAJORANA’ FOUNDATION AND CENTER FOR SCIENTIFIC CULTURE ANTONINO ZICHICHI CERN, Geneva, Switzerland and University of Bologna, Italy Over the course of the last 40 years, eighty-six thousand scientists from one hundred and forty nations have taken part in post-university activities that have rallied around the banner of a Science without secrets and without frontiers. This scientific community has striven to break down ideological, political and racial barriers that were invented not by Science, but by its worst enemies. The very existence of a scientific community as vast as that of Erice serves as concrete evidence that the new role of Science has already become a reality. To conduct Science means to discover the Fundamental Laws of Nature. The applications of great scientific discoveries almost always slip out of the control of Science itself. This is why technological development almost always contradicts the values instilled by Science: love for Creation and respect for life and human dignity. “Science and Faith are both gifts of God”, said John Paul 11. No Pope has ever before had the courage to put Science and Faith on pedestals of equivalent dignity, and it is out of this truth that the new role of Science is born. And it is this same truth that fathered the “Spirit of Erice”, known in the international scientific community as “The Erice Geist” (a mix of Italian, English and German). It was this “Erice Geist” that brought the greatest Defense intellects from the USA and the USSR to share the same table at Erice’s Seminars on Nuclear War. Thus it seems worthwhile to ask ourselves what happened at Erice 40 years ago. To understand what happened at Erice from 1963 on, it is first necessary to jump back nine hundred years in time. When the first University was founded nine hundred years ago in Bologna, the impetus came from a source that has still not run dry, even today. Quite the contrary. To learn the origins of the latest inventions and discoveries straight from the mouths of the inventors and discoverers themselves ... It was this possibility that pushed a group of well-educated men to establish the first University. In that era, the medical and juridical sciences were the centre of attention. To learn of the latest findings, one had to wait for the books to be drafted. The time necessary: ten years. But now books can be printed in a week. Why then should we insist on seeking the “living voice” of those who discover and invent?
28
29
Victor F. Weisskopf with Antonino Zichichi at CERN, in garden (1960).
30 While the time required to publish a volume has been reduced, our body of knowledge has expanded at an overwhelming pace. What we have learned from Galilei's time up to today is greater than everything that happened during the ten thousand years that separates us from the dawn of civilisation. And what has become of that institution called the University? Slowly and quietly it had to absorb the enormous growth of knowledge. In all fields. So, from the propulsive centre of new knowledge, it became a place of propaedeutic formation. Bringing young scholars to the threshold of new cognition, enabling them to understand what is being done in the most advanced sectors of the different disciplines through which human knowledge is articulated: that is the work of today's University. And it is not trivial work. How should we present the latest inventions and discoveries? By talking about who did them? How they were done? How the conclusions were reached? When a student opens a university text, he almost always gets the impression that the topic of study is a closed chapter. He will rarely find the space to discuss and comprehend what the open problems are in that field. Nevertheless, all fields have such problems to resolve. The expansion of human knowledge has brought university teaching to a temtory that is completely different from where it started out. Nine hundred years ago, a welleducated person could be versed in several different disciplines to their full depth. Today, the discipline of physics alone corresponds to an immense world of knowledge. There are molecular physics, atomic physics, and nuclear and subnuclear physics, to mention only a few of the largest subdivisions in the science of physics. And even if we focus on subnuclear physics alone, we find that there are at least ten recognized specialities within this field.
31
Victor F. Weisskopf, Sidney D. Drell and Antonino Zichichi (Erice, 26 May 1963).
32 In mathematics there are hundreds of sectors, each of great size and interest. Nothing changes if we shift from so-called pure Science to applied Science. To speak of medicine is to give one name to a thousand sectors. So what happens to a young student who wants to know the latest in the sector that is most fascinating to him? A single University might have, at best, only a couple of first-order superstars, and they alone certainly cannot cover all the fields of human knowledge. It is possible to locate the specialists that work on the cutting edge in any particular sector, but it would be an impossible undertaking to seek to learn directly from all of them. You would have to travel all over the world to have the privilege to meet with them and to sit in on their classes. At Erice, anyone who participates in the courses of a particular School - the oldest is that of subnuclear physics - is called a 'student'. In reality, this usually involves young scholars who have successfully completed their university studies and who come to Erice to find out what the new problems are. This happens in all fields, which are too many to enumerate here. It suffices to say that there are over one hundred schools in existence. But what distinguishes Erice the most is the spirit that animates all participants, both students and docents. The primary objective is to learn. No diplomas or degrees of any type are given out. As it was nine hundred years ago. The student listens to the lesson and then, after a break for lunch, the fun part begins. The student can ask any question of the professor. Even the most banal - it will not be punished. It is in everyone's interest to know the thoughts of young brains upon their exposure to scientific findings about which they had, presumably, already imagined many details and specifics, but rarely the same ones that are mixing around in the head of the docent. For a single problem, there are many different approaches. This is the whole point of discussion groups. When a group of scientists gathers to address themes of great scientific novelty, almost anything can happen. Once the Scientific Director of the Zurich branch of IBM came to this School. On his return to Zurich, he resigned from his directorship in order to dedicate himself to an idea that came to him during the courses at Erice. That idea led him to discover high-temperature superconductivity: he was awarded with the Nobel Prize. We are talking about Alex Muller. This is one example of how new ideas can be born at Erice.
33
The father of the Theorem of Time, Professor Eugene W i p e r (on the left in the photo) and Professor Paul Dirac (on the right in the photo), father of the equation which brought to Antimatter, with Antonino Zichichi.
34 The example cited refers to pure scientific research, even if the applications of high-temperature Superconductivity will be of enormous interest for the transport of electric energy and thousands of other activities. The idea of greatest value to come out of Erice, over the course of long years ridden by oft-ignored conflicts involving many countries, is that of the Manifesto that has been self-declared by more than ten thousand scientists from one hundred and fifteen nations. The mission of that Manifesto is the fight against secret laboratories. There will come a day when anyone who does scientific-technological research in great secrecy will be indicted for crimes against Humanity. Opening the doors of scientific laboratories, whatever type of research this action might unveil, would not only provide new impetus to scientific research in all fields of knowledge. It would also derail the insane spiral of the arms race that today, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, has no further reason to exist. Maybe it seems utopian to think that it would ever be possible to root out the secrets of the scientific-techno-military laboratories. One thing, however, is certain. If we fail to do so, sooner or later the planet is destined to go up in smoke. The project of establishing a World Lab that is open to the best intellects, without racial, ideological, political, religious or geographical (East, West, North, South) barriers, is the fruit of a promise that the scientific community - led by Erice - has made for the sake of all those who love peace not only as a word, but also as something that they wish to construct day by day out of facts. As mentioned in the beginning, the scientists of Erice have given life to a new way of conceiving international scientific collaboration: without secrets and without frontiers. This is the Spirit of Erice. As an indispensable part of this collaboration, the Voluntary Scientific Service has the objective of developing all the poor countries (Southern) that are far below the scientific and technological levels of today's industrialised countries (Northern). The Voluntary Scientific Service has leave to realise projects that would require enormous sums of money if it were not able to count on the work offered by thousands of scientists and specialists who ask nothing in terms of stipends or compensation for the work they put in. This voluntarism touches all levels, up to the highest. In fact, contributors to our projects include protagonists of global prestige from Science, Technology and Medicine, among which are many Nobel Laureates.
35
The memorable session when the putsch in Moscow destroyed Gorbachev’s attempt to bring the Soviet Union adiabatically towards democracy. All these events are closely connected with the activities at the EMCSC, with the World Federation of Scientists as the main point of reference for all problems. For example, when the putsch took place in Moscow, the Soviet scientists present in Erice received an ultimatum to return home immediately. Most of them were with members of their family and I vividly recall their terror over the possibility of seeing their common nightmare materialise, the return of a Stalinist-type dictatorship in their country. I sent a telegram to Moscow asking for confmation of the order received by my colleagues in Erice. According to official news, the new government wanted to maintain international collaboration. An order to go back was in contradiction with official statements by the new Soviet government and would have produced serious consequences in the international scientific community. That telegram allowed the USSR scientists present in Erice with their families not to immediately obey the peremptory order received. Fortunately the putsch was quickly over, and the figure above shows a picture celebrating the end of the terrible hours, when we all were convinced that the world was going to be confronted with another long period of cold war. The putsch was really a terrible surprise. In fact, before the destruction of the Berlin Wall, the scientific community participating in the Erice Seminars was optimistic enough to start considering the problems that the planet would have to face once the East-West confrontation was over. This is how the first studies on the Planetary Emergencies started.
36 The results obtained thanks to the Voluntary Scientific Service are born of the Spirit of Erice and demonstrate the importance of our promise as scientists from the industrialised countries (North) to create a scientific solidarity towards the states who are needy in every respect (South). To overcome the gap that grows bigger every year between the poor countries (South) and the rich (North), it is not enough to offer food and medicine. The poor countries (South) also need to learn how to approach and resolve with their own intellectual energy - the problems that inhibit their own development. The rich countries (North) must help them, not with wasted economic energy invested in useless projects, but intellectually and materially with concrete projects whose precise objectives have been elaborated by the scientific community in close collaboration with the best intellectual energy of the needy states themselves. Without the groundwork that the scientific community of Erice was able to establish over forty years of activity, NorthSouth relations would probably be fixed on a collision course. It is the Spirit of Erice that allows us to hope that it may be possible to avoid this. The Centre for Scientific Culture “Ettore Majorana” is neither an Academy nor a University like those familiar to everyone. It is an Institution born in the heart of the Frontiers of Science through the work of Bell, Blackett, Rabi, Weisskopf and the writer himself. We are talking about exponents of Science who will be remembered in the History of Physics of the 20th century. Patrick M.S. Blackett, Nobel Prize winner, Lord and Grand Admiral of the British Navy, discovered the first example of simultaneously produced “electron-antielectron”. In his Laboratory were discovered the first “strange particles”, so called because no-one had predicted or foreseen them. These particles would open up a new frontier in the Subnuclear Universe. Isidor I. Rabi, discoverer of the effect that bears his name, was awarded the Nobel for this; to him we owe the creation of the prestigious School of Physics of the University of Columbia in New York, and of the Scientific Committee of NATO: an enterprise of formidable originality in that it linked a military structure - with the end of defending Europe from the danger of invasion by the USSR - to the Science of free and democratic countries. It was the Laboratory of Columbia University in New York that brought in Enrico Fermi when he was unfortunately required to leave Italy because of racist laws.
37
8 May 1993, Professor Zichichi delivers to the Holy Father - on behalf of the ten thousand scientists of Erice - his welcome address.
38 Victor F. Weisskopf is a mythic figure of European Science. I was, with John Bell, at the beginning of my scientific career when Europe took its first steps towards building a structure that was capable of competing with the gigantic USA. This structure came to be called CERN (European Nuclear Research Center) and is located in Geneva. The mandate of this structure as desired by Rabi, Blackett and Niels Bohr (one of the founding fathers of Quantum Physics) was to evade the flight (the real one) of intellectuals towards the United States of America. CERN, endowed with the most advanced technological machines, was a necessary but insufficient condition for creating a global pole of attraction for the generations of European physicists who were already travelling outside of their home countries. In addition to its technological structure, CERN needed a leader. It would have to be a great scientist, an exceptional master capable of sparking new interests. Weisskopf was the first physicist in the world to calculate the “virtual” effects, in those days called the “polarisation of the vacuum”. Effects that are now the daily bread on the Frontiers of Physics. We would never have been able to reach the Supenvorld frontier if we had not been able to introduce “virtual” effects into the study of Galilean reality. Weisskopf led CERN to the centre of global scientific attention. John Bell, of my generation, became famous for discovering how to resolve the “paradox of Einstein-Podolsky and Rosen”, abbreviated as “The EPR paradox”. These giants of Galilean Science of the 20th century signed on the 8th of May, 1962, in Geneva, the constitutive act of the Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture “Ettore Majorana”. And so was born the so-called “Erice Centre” with its intent to give new meaning to Science and its culture. Science, said Fermi, enters into society through its applications, not based on the merit of its values. This is why it is necessary to distinguish scientific culture from its vulgarisation. The Erice Centre has demonstrated how it is possible for the values of science to enter into the culture of our times. On this subject, we need to overcome the paradox that has led us to the vulgarisation called “scientific”, which does not distinguish Science from Technology and has never had the courage to denounce political and economic violence. Because it did not denounce the actual roots of the arms race and the ravages of industrialisation, the greater public was exposed to the thesis that it was scientific progress itself, along with its founding fathers, that was responsible for a planet full of bombs and 53 planetary emergencies.
39 eETTORE W O R A N A s CENTRE FOR SCIENTIFIC CULTURE
Erice Statement It is unprecedented in human history that mankind has accumulateds u c h a m i l i y power to destroy. at once,all centres of civilizationin the world and to affect some vital properties of the planet.
The dnnger of a nuclear holocaust is not the unavoidable consequence of the great development of pure Sciena. In fact, Science is the study of the Fundamental Laws of Nature. Technology is the study. of how the power of
Here are our proposals:
1. Scientists who wish to devote all of their time, fully, to study theoretically or experimentally the basic laws of Nature. shouldin nowesufferfor thisfree choice, to do only pun Science. 1. All Governmentsshddmduevery effort to redua or eliminate nstrictions on the free flow of information,ideas and people. Such restrictions add to suspicion and animosity in the world.
manldndcanbeincreased.
3.
Technology can k for peace and for war. ’Ihe choice &tween peace and waris notascientific choice. It is a cultural one: the culiure of love produces peaceful technology. The culture of hnrred produces inshuments of war. Love and hatred have existed forever. In the bronv and iron ages, notoriously pre-scientiftc. mankind inventedandbuiltmkforpaandinsuuments of war. In the so called ’modern era” it is imperative that culture of love wins.
4.
An e n o m u s number of scientists share their
AII Governmentishouldmakeeveryeffort to reduce secrecy in the technology of defensc.The practice of secrecy generates hatred and distrust. To start a ban for military secncywillcreatcgsfabiliiy than offend by deterrence done.
AU Governments should continue their action to prevent the acquisitionof nuclear weapons hy additional nations or nonnational groups.
5 . All Govanmentsshould makeevcryefforI to reduce their nuclearweaponsstodrpiles.
t i n s between pure SdEncersearchand military applications. This is a fundamental sourn for the arms race.
6. AU Govemmmts shouldmakcevery effort to reduce the causes of insecurity of nonnuclear powm.
It is necessary thata new trend develops. inside thescimtificwmmunityommunityandonanintcmationa basis.
7.
It is of vital impoltance to identify the basic factors needed to start an effective process to protect human life and culture from a third and unprscdwrtcd catastrophicwar.To acwrnplish thisitkneccssarytochmgethepccmovement fmm a uniiawal action to a mtly international one involving proposals based on mutual and m e undemandmg.
Conclusion
All Govemmnu shouldmake evcry effort to ban all types of nudear tests in w a ~
technology.
Thosescientists-inthe EastandintheWest who agree with this &rice Statemenb, engage themselves morally to do everything possible inordatomaLethenewfrcnd,outlkd in the p e n t document,komeeffectivc all the world over and as s w n as possible.
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This Statement was written in ERICE, August 1982. by Paul A.M.DlRAC. Piow ICAPTZA and Antonino ZICHICHI. During the COUM of the thrce years (1982 1985) it has been signed by Tw THOUSAND scientists, the world over.
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The Erice Statement.
40 So phrases like “father of the atomic bomb” and “father of thc H-bomb” were coined, but without mentioning that the true fathers of these two devices were, respectively, Hitler and Stalin. It was they who gave life to the secret projects for those bombs. It is with the Erice Manifesto that justice was brought to bear on these cultural delusions, a justice that would be realised in 1989 with the collapse of the Berlin Wall. And it was always the Erice Centre that gave the example of the role of Science in confronting and resolving the problems that afflict this marvellous space ship in its voyage around the Sun. At Erice, in fact, will be founded the first nucleus of a new Laboratory with the mandate of studying Planetary Emergencies; not only the two most famous (the Greenhouse Effect and the Hole in the Ozone), but all 53. The new Laboratory is called ILSEAT (International Laboratory for Science Engineering and Advanced Technology) and has been inserted by the Governor of Sicily - Hon. Salvatore Cuffaro - into his government’sprogram. The international scientific community, grateful for the diligence that exponents like those cited - Bell, Blackett, Rabi, Weisskopf - and hundreds of other prestigious figures of Science have exhibited, has welcomed the enthusiastic interest of Governor Cuffaro for this new scientific-technological reality that is rooted in 40 years of activity at Erice. This, however, concerns the future.
THE ACADEMIA EUROPAEA
SIR ARNOLD BURGEN Downing College, The University of Cambridge, UK The creation of the Academia Europaea arose out of a suggestion made at a meeting of European Ministers of Science in 1985 that there was the need of a European Academy of Science. The proposal was developed through meetings at the Royal Society in London. These meetings led to meetings of senior European Scientists and to the creation of the Academia Europaea which held its Foundation Meeting in Cambridge in 1988. The core idea was that closer cooperation in Europe meant more than political and economic arrangements; there needed to be understanding and appreciation of the historical and social differences that focus national attitudes and that there was much to gain in bringing scholars together who might then learn to act in concert rather than in isolation or rivalry. It was agreed that the Academia should cover the whole of knowledge and include the whole of geographical Europe. These proposals need further clarification. At the time of the Academia’s foundation, the European Union represented only some of the countries of Western Europe and excluded those countries in Europe that were still within the Soviet pale and that later were undertaking reorganisation after the disappearance of Soviet control. Yet the scholars of these countries needed especially to be free to become members of any new Academy, which was to include the area that could be considered as sharing the Western heritage of ideas and culture. These features were, of course, not exclusive, having spread to the Americas and elsewhere, but could be contrasted with the cultures of the Middle East and Far East which were rising in importance. In most countries of Europe some version of a National Academy existed with varying degrees of competence, ranging from ones that were little more than social clubs to those that had control of a major area of national activity in the humanities and the natural sciences. For scholars from all these countries it was anticipated that the new Academy would provide wider horizons. The past century has been a period of unparalleled growth in knowledge in all areas but particularly in the natural sciences. The result has been both a growth in specialisation and compartmentation of new knowledge, but also in the formation of new subjects that broke away from their original affiliations and left their parent subject emasculated. In some cases, a great new idea or technology, such as molecular genetics or information technology, has drawn together contributors from a wide range of disciplines, but often at the price of incomprehensibility for those not in the know. Despite this there has been a general feeling that there were great dangers in new developments that occurred out of context, notably new developments that might affect the environment or raise serious problems for the future of mankind. These questions could best be dealt with by a program of cross-disciplinary contact and discussion. This then was the background against which the Academia Europaea was created and we now need to examine how it has tried to respond to these ideals and the problems encountered in trying to do so. The Academia now has over 2000 members elected from
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across Europe and also has some 100 foreign members, most of whom have close connections with Europe. There are no quotas for different countries, but members are elected on their merits, indeed the quality can be judged by the fact that nearly all European Nobel Prize winners are members; the size of the Academia is probably too small and there are many fine scholars who are not yet members, but a balance needs to be found between inclusiveness and the unwieldiness of excessive size. The Academia has held its annual conferences at locations in 14 countries (London, Strasbourg, Heidelberg, Budapest, Uppsala, Parma, Krakow, Barcelona, Gent, Basel, Copenhagen, Prague, Rotterdam, Lisbon and will be held this year in Graz). The theme of these meeting has always cut across disciplines; examples are "The impact of modem biology on the politics, culture and economy in Europe' (1998), "The sea in the Culture of Europe (1999), Concepts of Time (2000), "Risks" (2002), and "What makes us Human?"(2003). A problem that affects a European academy more than a National one is the ease of access of members to meetings. Whereas for a National academy, the distances that members need to travel to attend meetings may be relatively short, for the attendance at meetings of a European academy, the distances are relatively large and this has meant there was a preponderance of members from the local area where any Annual meeting was held. In 1999 the practice was introduced of inviting a group of young scholars from the host country to be the guests of the Academia, thus preventing it being only a matter of interest to older well-established scholars; this has proved to be a popular innovation. A feature of the Annual Meeting has been a keynote lecture (Erasmus Lecture) by a distinguished scholar covering such topics as "Can there be a European Law? (Emst Mestmacker), National identity and the formation of States (Alan Touraine), Power and insecurity in Europe (Lawrence Freedman) and Language and the evolution of the Human mind (Hubert Markl). Some of the difficulties of communicating across Europe can be overcome by printed publications and the European Review was designed with this in mind. It is a quarterly publication, whose aim is that the spread of the subject in every issue should be such, that there should be at least one article that appeals to the diversity of its readers, i.e., those who are not too narrow in their reading! This is not an easy objective to achieve, but it appears not to have missed the mark too often. The Review features what it terms Focuses in which a topic is explored by several authors; recent ones have been on "Quality of life for the Elderly","Risk", "China, Tradition and Modernity", "Japan and Europe, "Building social cohesions", "The future of Universities", "The Theatre" and a current one is on "History and memory" recounting how the population of various countries regard their conduct during World War I1 seen from a fifty year later perspective. The Academia has undertaken a series of special studies notably in the field of education, an area that is in a condition of stressful evolution everywhere in Europe, the old certainties being overturned by the desire to educate as many people as possible to a high level. The most recent publication is "Excellence in higher education", published this year, the result of a conference held jointly with the Wenner-Gren Foundation. Other themes have been "Psychosocial studies in Young People (1995)", "The idea of Progress"
43 (1 997), “Growing up with Science” (1997), and “The impact of electronic publishing on the academic community” (1998). In 1993 the Academia instituted a programme of Prizes to young scholars to aid the development of science and scholarship in Russia. This involves the award of twenty-five prizes each year and has gained support from the Soros Foundation, the Rayne Foundation, Amersham International, the International Science Foundation and others. It is one of the most successful activities that the Academia has initiated. These are some of the achievements of the Academia Europaea to date; there is feeling that more could have been achieved. What has inhibited a greater range of developments and impact? Two major constraints have been felt. The first is finance. It is much more costly to support a Europe-wide activity than one confined to a single country and yet it is very much more difficult to achieve financial support for an organisation that is European. It simply does not offer the local and political attractions to it support from governments that National academies can command, nor does it attract most National Foundations; we can be very grateful that some Foundations have been exceptions to this generalisation and have been such warm supporters. It would seem obvious that the European Commission should welcome such an organisation contributing so effectively to a European spirit in scholarship, but in fact its statutes have prevented its giving more than support for speakers at some of the meetings. The financial situation remains at present a serious brake on the development of new activities. The second restraint is related to the very broad perspective of the Academia. For instance, while the breadth and quality of the European Review is applauded, this puts it very low on the priorities of University and other libraries that are under intense pressure to subscribe to specialised publications which are appearing in ever increasing numbers, and in consequence its circulation is unduly restricted. It takes time for a new academic activity to make its mark on the international scene, and by the standards of the other academies represented at this meeting, the Academia Europaea is hardly into childhood! However, the time is ripe for an increase in its influence in Europe, notably through new activities now in preparation. There are so many instances in the modern world where a balanced judgement is required between interests that press their case without regard for opposing views and particularly where sound judgement is distorted by populist or political pressures; the Academia is in the position of being able to mobilise experts from across Europe to provide a balanced and well argued evaluation of the total picture.
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2.
CLIMATE: GLOBAL WARMING
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE COSMIC RAY CONNECTION NIR J. SHAVIV Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel ABSTRACT We review the evidence linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. In particular, we summarize recent results demonstrating that the long-term CRF variability associated with galactic spiral arm passages is the dominant climate driver over geological time scales. This can be concluded from the large correlation apparent between the reconstructed CRF history and the geologically reconstructed temperature record, and the lack of any correlation with the amount of atmospheric C02. The result can be used to quantify the CRF/temperature link and place an upper limit on the atmospheric response to COz variations. In turn,we show that this can be used to resolve the faint sun paradox and understand the origin of the global warming observed over the past century. INTRODUCTION - THE ALLEGED COSMIC RAY FLUX-CLIMATE LINK Accumulating evidence suggests that solar activity is responsible for at least some climate variability. This is indicated by the numerous correlations apparent between solar activity and either direct climatic variables or indirect climate proxies over time scales ranging from days to millennia (e.g., Herschel 1796, Labitzke and van Loon 1992, Eddy 1976, Friis-Cristensen & Lassen 1991, Soon et al. 1996, Soon et al. 2000, Beer et al. 2000, Hodell et al. 2001, Neff et al. 2001). It is therefore hard at this point to argue against any causal link between solar activity and climate on Earth. Nevertheless, the above correlations do not indicate which one of several possible pathways is actually responsible for the above correlations, with probably more than one mechanism at work. The most obvious link would be through direct changes in solar luminosity. However, the climatic variability attributable to solar activity is a few times larger than could be inferred from the 0.1% typical change observed in the solar irradiance (Beer et al, 2000, Soon et al. 2000). Namely, the variability in the thermal flux itself appears to be insufficient to explain the climate variations observed. Two possible pathways were suggested through which solar activity could be amplified and more effectively generate climate variations. First, if the global climate is sensitive to the amount of tropospheric ionization, it should be sensitive to solar activity as well. This is because the solar wind modulates the CRF, and with it, the amount of tropospheric ionization (Ney 1959). A second possibility includes the large UV flux variations. Since this flux is the primary source of heat in the stratosphere, it could affect, for example, the Hadley circulation (Haigh 1996). Correlations relating CRF modulations to climate on Earth exist on two time scales. Over the solar cycle, the solar wind strength varies considerably and, as a result, the amount of tropospheric ionization changes by typically 5%-10%. Svensmark (1998, 2000) and also Palle-Bag0 & Butler (2000) demonstrated that the variations over two decades in the amount of low altitude cloud cover nicely correlates with the CRF
47
48 reachipg Earth. Both signals, of the cloud cover and the CRF, lag by typically half a year behind other solar activity indices. This implies that it is more likely that the cloud cover is directly related to the CRF and indirectly to solar activity, than directly to solar activity. The reason the CRF lags behind solar activity to begin with is because it takes a few months for the solar wind to reach the heliopause and several months for the cosmic rays (CRs) to diffuse from the heliopause to Earth. Over the short time scale of days, various correlations relate CRF variations during Forbush events to various climatic variables. These events are marked by a sudden reduction in the CRF and a gradual increase over typically a 10-day period. Tinsley & Dean (1991) have shown that the Vorticity Area Index over Oceans is correlated with Forbush decreases. Similarly, Pudovkin & Veretenenko (1995) reported a cloud cover decrease (in latitudes of 60N-64N, where it was measured) synchronized with Forbush events. Later, a link between Forbush decreases and rainfall has also been claimed. Stozhkov et al. (1995) found an average 30% drop in rainfall in the initial day of a Forbush event over 47 events recorded during 36 years in 50 meteorological stations in Brazil (statistically significant to 30). While in Antarctica, Egorova et al. (2000) found that on the first day after a Forbush event, the temperature in Vostok station dramatically increases by an average of 10°K. And last, Todd & Kniveton (2002) have recently shown that Forbush decreases are associated with global decreases in cloud cover. Since Forbush events are relatively short, they can be more easily used to separate a CRFklimate effect from other possibilities. The reason is that over the time scale of a few days, there is significantly less correlation between CRF variability and other solar activity indices, such as UV or protons. And indeed, Tinsley & Dean (1991) have shown that the correlation they obtained completely disappears when the VAI is compared with UV changes. Similarly, Egorova et al. (2000) have shown that there is no measurable signal in sync with solar proton events. Moreover, a climatic correlation with Forbush events cannot arise from hypersensitivity to U V , since the latter is absorbed in the stratosphere, which cannot significantly influence tropospheric weather on the time scale of days. Given the above evidence, it is therefore quite reasonable to claim that cosmic rays affect the global climate and the link is most likely through control of the tropospheric ionization, which modifies the cloud formation process. Although the actual link is not critical to the rest of our discussion, it is interesting that several new results indeed point to the validity of this mechanism. Two particularly interesting results should be mentioned. First, Hamson & Aplin (2001) found experimentally that the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is correlated with natural variability in the CRF (e.g., due to statistical variability of CR air showers). In other words, this link is more than hypothetical. Second, using an advanced particle microphysics model, Yu (2002) discovered that a scenario in which the formation of CCN depends on tropospheric ionization, explains several interesting observations. Yu found that at low ionization rates, CCN formation increases with increasing ionization rates. This is because the system i s “ionization limited”. However, at large enough ionization rates, the formation of CCN decreases. This result, which at first might seem counter-intuitive, stems from the fact that if the ionization rate is large enough, condensation nuclei cannot grow quickly enough after they form, without discharging themselves through ion-ion recombination. The net result is that increasing the ionization
49
rate increases the CCN density at low altitudes, but it reduces the CCN density at high altitudes. This result is interesting as it implies that global warming induced by solar activity modulating the CRF should increase the surface temperature without changing the average tropospheric temperature by much. This offers an elegant solution as to why global warming in the past few decades was observed primarily near the surface but not by satellites and only marginally by balloons, since greenhouse gases are expected to heat the tropopause more uniformly. LONG TERM CRF VARIATIONS AND THE GEOLOGICAL RECORD An altogether independent piece of evidence linking CRF variability to temperature on Earth is the circumstantial link apparent between long-term CRF variations and geological reconstructions of climate on Earth. Long-term CRF variations arise because the solar system changes its galactic neighborhood as it revolves around the galaxy. When nearby supernova events are more numerous, more cosmic rays are accelerated in our galactic vicinity and the CRF reaching Earth is respectively higher. Moreover, studies of spiral galaxies like our own reveal that supemovae (SNe) occur predominantly in the vicinity of the galactic spiral arms. This is unsurprising considering that spiral arms harbor most of the star formation activity, and that massive stars live relatively short lives so that they are born and die within the spiral arm vicinity. The net result is that the CRF near spiral arms can be significantly higher, by a factor of a few, over the flux between the arms (e.g., Shaviv 2002b and references therein). Using astronomical data, the difference between the solar system’s angular velocity Qsun around the galaxy and the spiral arm pattern speed SZ, is found to be R,,,R,=ll.l+2.0 (km/s)/kpc (Shaviv 2002b). Since the Milky Way has 4 spiral arms, this angular velocity difference translates to a spiral arm passage every 1342~24Myr. Thus, the astronomical prediction is that the CRF reaching Earth should vary with the above period. If the CRF/climate link is real, we should see a climatic affect with the above periodicity. Figure 1 plots the predicted spiral arm passages using the astronomical data and the ensuing CRF using a model described in Shaviv (2002a,b). This is then compared with the geological sedimentation evidence for the occurrence of ice age epochs (IAEs) or warm periods (i.e., “icehouses” and “greenhouses”), as summarized by Frakes et al. (1992) and Crowell (1999). Interestingly, Frakes et al. claim that the geological data is sufficient to claim periodicity. Crowell on the other hand, claims that the data is insufficient to make the claim of periodicity and indeed his epochs occur less regularly. Irrespectively, both records are consistent with each other, but more importantly, they are consistent with the predicted CRF using the astronomical data. The correlation between astronomical and geological data suggests that indeed there is a causal link between galactic geography and climate. It does not point to the actual mechanism of the physical link. A smoking gun, which would point towards the CRF as the culprit, would be any historic record that can be used to reconstruct the CRF and, with it, show that the predicted periodic CRF variations indeed exist and that the
50 CRF varies in concordance with climate variations. Such a historic record exists in the form of exposure ages of Iron meteorites'. Figure 1: The past Eon. Panel A describes past Galactic spiral arms crossings assuming L&-Q=lO.9 (km/s)Apc. Panel B describes the CRF reaching the solar system using a CR dirusion model (Shaviv 2002b). Note that the CRF is predicted to lag behind spiral aim crossings. This is portrayed by the hatched regions, which qualitatively show the predicted occurrences of IAEs, if the CRF required to trigger them is the averagejlux. Arrows mark the middle of the spiral crossing and the expected mid-glaciation point. Panel C qualitatively describes the geologically recorded IAEs-its top ha& as summarized by Crowell (1999), and its bottom ha& as summarized by Frakes et al. (1992). By jne-tuning the observed pattern speed of the arms to best j t the IAEs, an intriguing correlation appears between the IAEs and their prediction. Note that the correlation need not be absolute since additionalfactors may affect the climate. Otherfactors that should be considered and noted in the graph are: (1) The mid-Mesozoic glaciations are signzjkantb less extensive than others. (2) It is unclear to what extent the period around 700 Myr BP was warmer than the IAEs before or since. (3) Thejrst IAE of the Neo-Proterozoic (if indeed distinct) is very uncertain. (4) Since Norma's crossing is an extrapolation@om smaller galactic radii, its location is uncertain. r f the arm's structure at smaller radii is indeed direrent (Shaviv ZOOZb), its preferred location will lag by about 20Myr. Panel D is a 1-2-1 averaged histogram of the 41Kf0K exposure ages of Fe meteorites, which are predicted to cluster around the CRF minima. The cluster-IAE correlationJitrther suggests an extra-terrestrial triggerfor the glaciations.
Using a set of exposure-dated Iron meteorites it is possible to reconstruct the CRF. This is because the CRF is the 'clock' used to exposure-date the meteorites. As a consequence, variations in the CRF translate into distortions in the exposure ages. Using a statistical method described in Shaviv (2002b) these distortions can be used to reconstruct the CRF variations. The principle behind this new method is the fact that during periods with a low CRF, when the exposure age 'clock' ticks slower, many meteorites cluster around these apparent exposure ages. This is because long real time intervals elapse while the exposure clock measures a short interval only. Thus, the prediction is that a histogram of the exposure ages of iron meteorites will show clustering around epochs with a lower CRF, when a warmer climate is expected. This clustering is indeed apparent in the data, (see figure 1) providing an independent link between CRF variations and climate variations on Earth. The climate history used in the above comparison was a qualitative reconstruction using geological sedimentation records. It could only indicate the existence of cold or
' Chondrites are not useful for this purpose, since their typical lifetime is short.
51 warm periods. More information would be learned if we could compare the CRF variations to a quantitative paleoclimatic record. At the least, it would allow the quantification of the CRF-climate link. isotope ratio measurements of fossils from tropical Using thousands of '80/'60 oceans, Veizer et al. (2000) reconstructed the temperature over the Phanerozoic2. This record was subsequently used for the quantitative comparison between CRF variations and climate (Shaviv & Veizer 2003). The results are graphically depicted in figure 2, where it is apparent that the reconstructed CRF history, using the extra-terrestrial record of meteorites, has a remarkable correlation with temperature. Since the residual in the fit bears no resemblance to the variation of atmospheric C02, an upper limit to its effect can be deduced. Using a statistical analysis, the following conclusions can be reached: CRF is responsible for 75% of the long-term (>50 M y ) variance in the 1) tropical temperature. Thus, the CRF is by f a r the most dominant climate driver over long time scales. An upper limit on the effect of C02 can be placed. At lo, the upper limit on 2) the temperature increase resulting from a doubled amount of atmospheric C02 is about 0.9"C (it is about 1.5"C and 2.6"C at the 90% and 99% confidence levels). This can be translated into a limit on the global temperature response of radiative forcing. As compared with the response of a hypothetical black body, Earth, the upper limit on the response is h <0.75 (or h 4 . 2 or 2.2 respectively). Namely, it is more likely that Earth has negative feedbacks that stabilize its climate response more than the behavior of a black body. Figure 2: Variations in the cosmic rayjlwc (0) and tropical temperature 15 anomaly (AT) over the Phanerozoic. g 1 The upper curves describe the 8 05 reconstructed CRF using iron meteorite exposure age data (Shaviv, hanemzoic Temperature ' 2002b). The thick solid line depicts 2 the nominal CRF, while the shading delineates the allowed error range. The two dashed curves are additional CRF reconstructions that fit within 4 the acceptable range. The shortdashed curve describes the nominal -2 CRF reconstruction after its period *. (Cosmic Rays + /meor) was fine-tuned to best fit the low-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 latitude temperature anomaly (i.e., it is the 'Solid-line " reconstruction. after the exact CRF periodicity was fine tuned, within the CRF reconstruction error). The bottom long-dashed curve depicts the reconstructed temperature anomaly (AT from Veizer et al. 2000 smoothed with a SO Myr window). The solid line is the predicted AT,,,,,~e~ using the short-dashed curve above, while also allowing a secular, long-term linear contribution. The thin line is the residual. The largest residual is at 250 Myr BP, where only a few measurements o f 8 ' 0 exist due
-
e- ,
2
The Phanerozoic is the last 550 M y from which fossils of multi-cellular life exist.
52 to the dearth of fossils subsequent to the largest extinction event in the Earth s history. The top bars are icehouse periods according to Frakes et al. Figure 3: Plotted are the period and phase of four independent signals, their agreement indicates that the CRF/climate link is highly probable. The phase is defined as the time t,, before present when 150 the cosmic rayflux is largest or the climate is warmest divided by the respective signal period. The four signals are the predicted 3 0 . CRF from astronomical data (using 11100 measurement of the pattern speed of the T I galactic spiral arms and a dij&sion model .-L0 . for the cosmic rays), reconstruction of the L cosmic ray flux in the solar system (using the exposure ages of Iron meteorites), occurrence of ice-age epochs (ice-houses) and warm periods (greenhouses) using 00 geological sedimentation records, and laslyt, the reconstructed tropical sea temperature (using ' 8 ~ / ' 6isotope ~ ratio in fossils).
-
Icehouse-Greenhouse EmkesetaliGaweU
Cosm'cRay fromFeMeteor'ter
-
-
v
0.2
Phase 0.4 = t,JP0.6
0.8
1
Figure 3 is a graphical summary of the above correlations. It depicts the period and phase of the four independent signals, showing their mutual agreement. Two of the signals are extra-terrestrial in nature. One is the predicted CRF variations arising from spiral arm passages as calculated using astronomical data. The other signal is the measured periodic CRF history using Iron meteorites. The two other periodic signals describe climate variations. One is of the coldwarm epochs as apparent from the geological sedimentation record, while the other is the reconstructed tropical temperature. The fact that the four results for the phase and period are in agreement, demonstrates that it is more than a statistical fluke. Moreover, since there are two independent extraterrestrial records and two independent climate records, the result is redundant. Armed with the quantitative relation between CRF variations and temperature change, as well as with the limit on the climatic effects of variations in the amount of atmospheric COz, we can proceed with application of these results. IMPLICATIONS OF THE CRF CLIMATE LINK - THE FAINT SUN PARADOX Standard solar models predict a solar luminosity that gradually increased by about 30% over the past 4.5 billion years. Under the faint sun, Earth should have been frozen solid for most of its existence. Yet, running water is observed to have been present since very early in Earth's history. This enigma is known as the faint sun paradox. The CRFklimate link has the power to significantly extenuate this problem (Shaviv 2003). To reach this conclusion, we should consider that the young sun was rotating faster. As a result, it must have had a higher non-thermal activity and, with it, a stronger solar
53 wind. Since the solar wind slows the flux of galactic CRs, the stronger wind necessarily lowered the CRF reaching Earth. A lower CRF would in turn translate into higher temperatures through the CRF/climate link. Thus, a stronger solar wind should have had a warming effect that acted to compensate the solar dimness. The effect can be quantified. To do so, one can calculate the attenuation effect of an evolving solar wind. The evolution itself can be reconstructed by comparison to the observation of stellar winds of nearby solar-like stars. The slowly increasing CRF and the CFWtemperature relation can then be used to calculate the global temperature and compare it with the effect of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. The results from the detailed analysis (Shaviv 2003) are graphically depicted in figure 4. The crux of the results is the following: a) The increasing solar wind and the ensuing reduction in CRF can explain about two thirds of the temperature increase required to resolve the faint sun paradox. b) The remaining third or so of the discrepancy can be explained with greenhouse warming by modest quantities of atmospheric COz (-0.01 bar), amounts that are consistent with geological constraints. c) Once the Milky Way’s star formation rate is included, the coldest temperatures are predicted to have occurred over the past Eon, and the between 2 and 3 Gyr before present. Interestingly, these are also the only epochs during which Earth experienced glaciations. d) The compensation between solar luminosity increase and CRF decrease is now reaching its end, since the solar wind reduction of the CFG is now only -10%. This implies that solar luminosity increase will now contribute to a slow warming trend over the coming billions of years. Figure 4: Past and future tong term global temperature 40 changes. Model (A) describes the temperature predicted without a CRF-climate effect, 30 with a nominal contribution by C02 (0.01 bar before 3 Gyr, U then exponentially decreasing ::20 afterwards to current levels, e and constant thereafter), and a ED radiative feedback parameter 10 of II =2.2 (which is statistically inconsistent with the long term temperature reconstruction at 0 the 3clevel). Model (C) is the same as model (A), except that II=0.75, which is the nominal Time BP [Gyr] value from temperature-CRFC02 comparison over the Phanerozoic. Model (B) is the same as model (C) except that it assumes a constant CO2 contribution. Model (0)and associated lines are the same as model (C) with the CRF/climate link included using the nominal parameters. The thick dashed line assumes that the CRF reaching the outskirts of the solar system is constant. The thin solid line includes the
Y
54 variations in the Milky W q ’ s star formation rate, while the long dashed line includes the range of variability associated with spiral a m passages. The dotted line denotes the total variability arisingfrom all long-term intrinsic variations in the CRF.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE CRF CLIMATE LINK - UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL WARMING Doubling the amount of atmospheric COz results with a radiative forcing of about 4 W/mz (e.g., IPCC 2001). This is hard to dispute. The big uncertainly in climate dynamics, however, is the global temperature response to this change in the energy budget. For a blackbody Earth, this response is 0.30°K / (W/m2). Earth however does not behave as a black body, and various positive and negative feedbacks act to either amplify or decrease this number by a factor h. Values obtained in global circulation models (GCMs) range between h=2 and 4.5, i.e., positive feedbacks act to significantly amplify the temperature response (e.g., IPCC 2001). There are however debated claims that various negative feedbacks should be considered, yielding a much smaller h of 0.5-1.3 (Lindzen, 2001), or even -0.2 (Ou, 2001). This number was also obtained from analyses of actual temperature variations. For example, from the rather quick return of the global temperature to its “average” after a series of volcanic eruptions, it was deduced that h-0.5 with h>l being inconsistent with the effects of volcanic driving (Lindzen & Giannitsis, 1998). On the other hand, Gregory et al. (2002) find that a lower limit of h=1.3 (at 95% confidence) can be placed by considering the increase in the ocean heat content. Another constraint was obtained by Covey et al. (1996) who compared COZ changes to temperature variations over geological time scales (in particular, the last glacial maximum, the Cretaceous and early Eocene). The authors of this study found that h is consistent with the range of values obtained in GCMs. However, the latter two constraints were obtained while neglecting the possible forcing of the CRF and the non-thermal solar activity. Thus, if CRF/climate link is real, these two constraints are not applicable anymore. In the previous sections, we have seen that once CRF variations are considered over geological time scales, a marked correlation is obtained between CRF as a driver and temperature change. This correlation, combined with the lack of correlation with COz variations, yields h < 0.75 (or h< 1.2 or 2.2 at 90% or 99% confidence level). Thus, ifthe CRFklimate connection is valid, which appears to be the case from the high CRF/AT correlation, we should consider h 0.75 as the most probable value. What does this result imply in the context of global warming? According to the IPCC, the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emissions since the 1 9 3 0 ’ ~ is~about 1 W/mz (IPCC, 2001). This does not include indirect forcing by the sun (through solar modulation of the CRF or other possible effects). The largest uncertainly in this number is the possible indirect effect of aerosols. For a GCM type climate response of h 2.5, this radiative forcing should have contributed a global warming of about 0.75”K. However, this assumes an equilibrium response. In reality, the oceans have a high heat capacity and it takes centuries for Earth
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We use the 1930’s for comparison, because the high energy CRF data required for comparison is not available before.
5 to reach equilibrium. On the short time scale, only about 2/3’s of this increase should appear (e.g., IPCC 2001). Thus, 1 W/m2 and h 2.5 can explain the 0.4-0.5”K global warming observed since the 1930’s. This is the standard lore. However, the CRF climate link is only consistent with a small value of h. If we take h 0.75, the global warming associated with “standard” contributions is only about 0.23”K in equilibrium, or 0.17”K over short time scales, that is, only about a third of the observed warming appears to arises from human activity and other standard contributions to the radiative forcing (e.g., as mentioned in the IPCC report, 2001). Where do the other 2/3’s come from? By comparing the CRF to temperature change over the phanerozoic, it was obtained that a CRF increase of 1% should translate to a temperature decrease of about 0.10~0.05°K.Over short time scales, the CRF variations are not “intrinsic” but instead arise from solar modulation, which is energy dependant. When trying to predict the temperature increase associated with the increased solar activity over the past century, we should therefore use the CRF energies that are most likely responsible for the apparent climate effect. These energies are those penetrating the troposphere and which can reach low geomagnetic latitudes. This is because cloud microphysics is most likely governed by the low altitude tropospheric ionization rate. Thus, the flux measured at the University of Chicago Neutron Monitor Stations in Haleakala, Hawaii and Huancayo, Peru is probably a fair measurement of the flux affecting the climate. Both stations are at an altitude of about 3km and relatively close to the magnetic equator (rigidity cutoff of 12.9 GeV). Typical variations of about 8% are generally recorded in the above stations between solar minimum and solar maximum. Since neither station was active before the 1950’s, we can use ion chamber data for comparison. Ion chambers record typical variations of 2% over the solar cycle, while the average ion chamber count decreased by 1.O% over the past 70 years. This implies that at energies most likely responsible for the climate effect, the decrease was about 4%. Using the result of Shaviv & Veizer (2003), this translates into a temperature increase of 0.4k0.2”K assuming equilibrium, or more realistically, to about a 0.27*0.13”K increase over the past 70 years. Thus, the result obtained by comparing CRF variations to temperature change over the past 550 Million years first implies that climate has a low response to radiative forcing, such that about a third of the increase should be attributed to anthropogenic gases and other “standard” radiative forcings. Secondly, the CRF-temperature relation implies that about two thirds should be attributed to the increased solar activity, which lowered the CRF reaching the Earth. Together, the observed global warming is consistently explained. Interestingly, this result was already independently reached by other means. Since the observed global warming over the past century was not monotonic-it decreased between the 1940’s and ~O’S,one can fit the global warming to an anthropogenic contribution (which was increasing monotonically) and a solar activity contribution (which also decreased between the 1940’s and 70’s). This was done by Soon et al. (1996), who found that the best fit arises when somewhat less than half of the increase is attributed to an anthropogenic cause, while somewhat more than a half is attributed to solar activity, without specifying the physical link.
-
-
56 SUMMARY Ample evidence links CRF variations to climate change on Earth. A partial list of results is summarized in Table 1. The result by Shaviv & Veizer (2003) is particularly important as it can quantify the CRFhemperature relation and it can be used to place a limit on the climate response to the radiative forcing of C02 variations. It was found that periodic CRF variations arise from galactic spiral arm passages, giving rise to a clear periodic temperature variation over the past 550 Million years. Specifically, the CRF variations can explain about 75% of the total temperature variance observed. Since C02 is expected to have varied over the phanerozoic as well, it should have left a mark in the temperature signal. Since no clear temperature variations arising from C02 variability are apparent, an upper limit to the effect of COz can be placed. Table 1.: Published result Result A correlation between '*o/'~o in stalagmites in a cave in Oman and I4C in the atmosphere (Neff et al. 2001) A correlation between low altitude cloud cover and CRF variations over the solar cycle (Svensmark 2000).
A Correlation between Forbush events and vorticity area index (Tinsley & Dean, 1991)
A Correlation between Forbush decreases in CRF and reduction in global cloud cover (Todd & Kniveton 2001) A Correlation between Spiral Arm passages, reconstructed CRF history using Iron meteorites and ice-age epochs on Earth (Shaviv 2002a.b) A Correlation between the reconstructed CRF
(inkingCRF variations to climatc. Not inclusive. Meaning of the Result By far, the nicest correlation between solar activity (of which I4C is a proxy) and global temperature (to which the 180/160 isotope ratio is sensitive). It implies that a robust link between solar activity and climate should exist. CRF appears to affect climate through modification of the cloud formation process, and it provides a natural link between solar activity, which modulates the CRF, and climate. The lag between both the CRF and cloud cover signals, and solar activity, supports the idea that the soladclimate link is through CRs, as opposed to other solarclimate links. This link is a stronger indication that climate is affected by the CRF. This is because there is a lack of any correlation with solar activity indices. (Namely, it not just a lag between CRF variations and solar activity, as obtained over the solar cycle). This result reaffirms that the CRF/climate link is most likely though the modification of the global cloud cover, and it again supports the role of CRF in the solar/climate link, since no direct correlation was found with solar activity. The result decouples CRF variations from solar variability, since the former are intrinsic. This firmly convicts the CRF as a climate driver. It also shows that the CRF/climate link does not saturate at small CRF variations, and the effect can be large. It also offers a solid explanation for the almost periodic occurrence of ice-age epochs. The correlation between CRF variations and temperature variability quant$es the CRF/climate link, thereby allowing
57
history and temperature predictions using this link. The lack of any correlation with on Earth. (Shaviv & COz variations is used to place an upper limit on the climate between CRF variations and cloud condensation nuclei (Harrison & Aplin 2002 A Cloud microphysics simulation by Yu (2002)
I
This innovative experimental result demonstrates that higher CRF give rise to higher concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei. CRF/ionization/cloud-condensationpicture, which hitherto was almost exclusively theoretical. The numerical simulations by Yu have shown that the formation of cloud condensation nuclei should be affected by the CRF. The detailed predictions explain why low altitude clouds are most sensitive to the CRF and why most of the global warming over the past century was measured 1 near the surface but not in the upper troposphere.
The normalized CRF/temperature relation can be used to explain about two thirds of the faint sun paradox. Because the sun was more active in its youth, its stronger solar wind was responsible for preventing most of the CRF from reaching Earth. Through the CRF/climate effect, this translated into elevated temperatures, which tended to compensate for the effect of the dim sun. The effect can only explain about 2/3s of the discrepancy. The remaining 1/3 can be naturally explained with a modest contribution of atmospheric C02. A second application of the limit on the climatic response to radiative forcing, and the relation between CRF and temperature variations, was to understand the global warming observed over the past century. It was found that the combined astronomicallgeological analysis implies that about two thirds of the global warming over the past century should be attributed to increased solar activity (which reduced the CRF reaching Earth), while only about a third should be attributed to “standard” radiative forcings, arising primarily from anthropogenic activity. This research was supported by the F.I.R.S.T. (Bikura) program of the Israel Science Foundation (grant no. 4048/03). REFERENCES: 1.
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CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON SPECIES AND BIODIVERSITY A. TOWNSEND PETERSON Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, USA INTRODUCTION: CLIMATE CHANGE AS A REALITY Perusal of recent issues of any number of scientific journals reveals numerous contributions treating climate change ([Anon] 2003, Gong and Shi 2003, Rahmstorf 2003, Rosqvist and Schuber 2003, Steemers 2003). In general, observations indicate dramatic warming trends across recent decades, changes in precipitation, and increasing frequencies of extreme events (Houghton et al. 2001). A broad initiative of modeling climate futures using general circulation models (GCMs) has yielded a rich suite of future-climate projections based on different scenarios of atmospheric composition (Flato et al. 1999, Nakicenovic and Swart 2000, Pope et al. 2002). Both the reality of these changes and their causes have been the subject of considerable controversy. Regarding the former, although some details are debatable, the reality of trends post-1960 is difficult to dispute (Houghton et al. 2001). Regarding the latter, however, the issue is less clear-whether climate change is caused by anthropogenic activities or not has been debated extensively (Laut 2003, Solanki and Krivova 2003), not only in scientific circles, but also in political circles. In general, though, an enormous body of evidence now points towards (1) the observed changes being real long-term trends, and (2) anthropogenic influences in the form of increasing ‘greenhouse gas’ concentrations being the primary cause of the changes (Houghton et al. 2001). For the purposes of this COI 1 ’ 1 d o n , nonetheless, the root causes are less important than that the changes are tak *: )lace-I focus on the implications of changing climates for elements of biodiversity. THEORETICAL EXPECTATIONS FOR BIODIVERSITY Biological diversity (“biodiversity,” for short) exists in a context of climates and landscapes, and species are well-known to respond to climatic factors in their phenology and geographic distributions (Grinnell 1917, 1924, MacArthur 1972, Brown 1995). In general, for geographic phenomena, we can refer to the concept of an ecological niche, defined as the conjunction of conditions within which a species can maintain populations without immigration (Grinnell 1917, 1924)-this concept differs from later versions, which focused more on the role of species in ecosystems (Hutchinson 1957, MacArthur 1972), but offers a clear geographic perspective on species’ ecology and distributions. In brief, the ecological niche serves as one important constraint on species’ geographic potential. Recent work in theoretical ecology and evolution has treated the evolution of ecological niche characters quantitatively, and led to a remarkable convergence of thinking between numerous theoretical ecologists (Brown and Pavlovic 1992, Holt and Gaines 1992, Kawecki and Steams 1993, Kawecki 1995, Holt 1996b, a, Holt and Gomulkiewicz 1996). Because populations existing under conditions outside of a species’
6 0 niche are expected to decline and have greatly reduced fitness, they contribute little to species’ evolutionary dynamics. As a result, stabilizing selection is expected to be strong, producing conservatism in ecological niche characteristics in most situations. Although niches obviously do evolve (or all species would share the same niche!), this prediction suggests that species will frequently not change dramatically in their ecological profiles, particularly over short periods of time (as are important in considerations of climate change). Empirical results relevant to this question are now accumulating as well-in general, they amply confirm theoretical expectations. Tests developed to date include predictivity of the geographic potential of species’ invasions in nonnative areas (Peterson and Vieglais 2001, Peterson In press), predictivity of species’ range shifts during past climatic shifts (Martinez-Meyer 2002), predictivity among sister species pairs (Peterson et al. 1999), and predictivity across phylogeny (Rice et al. In press). In general, and not without exceptions (Peterson and Holt In press), the general prediction of conservatism in species’ ecological niche characteristics is confirmed. Species’ ecological niche characteristics thus constitute long-term, stable constraints on their distributional potential. Given this tight relationship between species’ geography and features of climate, what are theoretical expectations for species’ responses to changing climates? In general, for a population residing in an area with a changing climate, three possible outcomes can be considered (Holt 1990): 1. Track appropriate conditions - Here, dispersal abilities of a population permit invasion of new areas as they become habitable, and populations ‘left behind’ in the previous distributional areas decline towards extirpation. This tracking can be in spatial (range shifts) or temporal (phenological shifts) dimensions. 2. Evolve to meet the new conditions - Here, the population has sufficient genetic variation to permit adaptive evolution of niche characteristics, and populations adjust to changing conditions without range shifts. 3. Go extinct - Failing the two previous options, populations are located at sites with conditions falling outside of their ecological niche envelopes, and populations decline towards zero. These three possibilities represent the range of reactions for species under changing climates, and thus will provide a framework for the rest of this contribution. Indeed, they can be translated into more concrete expectations of species’ responses to climate change: 1. Poleward and upward expansion cf populations - With warming trends, in general, conditions will improve at the poleward and upward (elevationally) limits of species’ geographic distributions. 2. Equator-side and lower-elevation extirpation of populations - With general warming trends, conditions will usually worsen for a species along the equator-side and lower-elevation border of its range. 3. Phenological sh$ts towards earlier timing - For species that emerge, breed, or whatever in spring, after a cold winter period, phenological shifts earlier in the season are expected. For species responding to other suites of factors (e.g., onset of rains), phenological shifts may occur, but are less generalizable as to the form that they will take.
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Extinction in bounded situations - Assuming that niche evolution is relatively uncommon, when species are limited from dispersal, they are expected to go extinct. Particularly frequent will be extinctions in bounded situationsmountaintops, islands, etc., in which no dispersal options exist. These expectations are derived directly from theoretical considerations, and provide a general rubric within which climate change effects on biodiversity can be considered. 4.
OBSERVED EFFECTS ON BIODIVERSITY The scientific literature is replete with examples of observed changes in phenology or distribution of species that are attributed to the effects of climate change (Bethke and Nudds 1995, Parmesan 1996, Allen and Breshears 1998, Inouye et al. 2000, Linderholm 2002, Walther et al. 2002, Beaugrand and Reid 2003, Cresswell and McCleery 2003, Crozier 2003, Inouye et al. 2003, Perfors et al. 2003, Saavedra et al. 2003). Given that species’ distributions are well-known to be fluid and changeable, some caution is merited in interpreting these attributions. Nevertheless, more detailed and controlled metaanalyses have confirmed that a great number of shifts are occurring and that they fit the generalities expected of climate-driven effects on species (Parmesan et al. 1999, Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Regarding the three theoretical expectations listed above, each has seen detailed consideration. Distributional shifts have been documented amply, as have phenological shifts, with species emerging, flowering, or breeding earlier with warming climates (Walther et al. 2002). Although these shifts are far from universal (Peterson 2003b), the overall pattern of changes nevertheless fits the specific climate change-related expectations listed above. Perhaps most interesting, however, are the cases of constraint that are now emerging. For instance, in a particularly well-known case, amphibians in many regions are experiencing catastrophic declines (Pounds and Crump 1994) at least in part attributable to aspects of changing climates. In at least one case (Pounds et al. 1999), these declines have been absolute, leading to the extinction of an amphibian species-this system was bounded, in the sense that the conjunction of forest and cloud layers that had provided the conditions necessary for the species to persist no longer existed. Other systems are now providing less dramatic but even better documented examples, in which evolutionary and/or dispersal capacities are likely to be insufficient to prevent extinctions or broad population losses (Etterson and Shaw 2001, Nadkarni and Solano 2002, Hoffmann et al. 2003, Zacherl et al. 2003). PROJECTED EFFECTS ON BIODIVERSITY Observed effects of climate change on species are fascinating, and provide a key documentation that theoretical expectations are more than just imagination, but rather are the first indications of what will likely prove to be a major concern in coming decades. While these observations are increasingly common, and have fit well with a priori predictions, they nevertheless do not provide the whole picture-if these changes are but thefirst steps, what form will subsequent steps take? That is to say, observed changes do not show us the whole picture of biodiversity consequences of climate change, and as a
6 2 result we must seek other, more anticipatory, means of understanding the dimensions of the challenge. Such anticipatory (predictive) approaches to understanding climate change effects on biodiversity have taken two general paths: modeling ecosystems and natural processes (not directly the focus of this paper), versus modeling individual species via ecological niche modeling (Peterson et al. In press). In the first case, a long evolution of increasingly complex models has produced an impressive literature regarding expected shifts and extents of ecosystems around the world (Prentice and Webb 1989, Neilson et al. 1992, Melillo et al. 1996, Neilson et al. 1998, Tian et al. 1998). Biogeography models evolved from statistically-based climate-vegetation classification approaches to process-based biome models (Box 1981). Newer ecosystemhiome models are increasingly processbased, rather than just based on statistical correlations in empirical data (Neilson et al. 1992, Prentice et al. 1992, Woodward et al. 1998). Most recently, however? a generation of dynamic global vegetation models has emerged (Prentice and Webb 1989), in which process simulation is even more biologically realistic, and results have been shown to be increasingly predictive of current patterns of ecosystem distribution. This direction of research, however, does not maintain a direct connection to individual species (the base elements of biodiversity), and so will not be explored fkther in this contribution. The second approach to anticipating climate change effects focuses on individual species’ ecological needs (modeling the ecological niche), and then uses the previous results demonstrating ecological niche conservatism to project ecological niche characteristics forward onto fiture climatic conditions. Ecological niches are modeled using a variety of tools, including statistical approaches (Huntley et al. 1995) and machine-learning approaches (Peterson et al. 2001), among others. While early implementations simply used imagined scenarios (e.g., +I% temperature, -5% precipitation) as scenarios (Carey and Brown 1994), recent work has used specific GCM scenarios as basis for more detailed projections (Peterson et al. 2001, Bakkenes et al. 2002, Berry et al. 2002, Midgely et al. 2002, Peterson et al. 2002, Midgley et al. 2003, Peterson 2003a, Siqueira and Peterson 2003). These species-specific approaches have now become sufficiently extensive as to provide some first indications of generalities that can be expected of climate change effects on biodiversity: 1. Extinctions - Species-specific models suggest that numbers of species likely to go extinct as a direct consequence of climate change effects vary dramatically among regions and among taxa, and can range from almost nil up to 40-50% in worst cases (Siqueira and Peterson 2003). 2. Idiosyncratic responses - Although on average future projections of species’ distributions obey the tendencies described above, many exceptions exist, emphasizing that species’ responses to climate change will be idiosyncratic and individualistic (Peterson 2003a). 3. Montane versus flatlands effects - A trend that appears to be emerging, although data are preliminary, is that montane systems will be considerably better buffered against horizontal climate change consequences than will be flatlands regions (Peterson 2003a). For instance, the Great Plains in the United States and the Cerrado in Brazil are both predicted to see rather severe climate change consequences for species (Peterson 2003a, Siqueira and Peterson
63 2003), whereas Mexico and the Rocky Mountains in the United States are expected to see less serious consequences (Peterson et al. 2002, Peterson 2003a). 4. Extinctions versus rearrangements - Although several major climate change impact surveys have indicated that numbers of species likely to go extinct as a direct result of climate change effects may prove relatively low, most species are expected to retract and expand their distributions here and there across their distributions, which will create many new ecological situationscommunities with unknown characteristics and behavior. 5 . Unknown environmental conditions - A major unknown in the implementation of these species-level models is how to treat new environmental combinations that emerge in future climate scenarios. This question is clearly related in many ways to the question of species’ adaptability. In sum, single-species modeling has now been implemented for sufficient regions and taxa as to permit a few first generalizations. Much more work, of course, remains to be done in order to provide a predictive view of likely future effects of climate change on biodiversity. SYNTHESIS Biodiversity depends critically on the distribution and configuration of climates across the Earth’s surface. Whereas climate change as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may be debatable, that climates are reorganizing worldwide is more difficult to deny. Biological species are, as expected, moving along with the climatic conditions, producing many range shifts and phenological changes that follow basic expectations about the behavior of biodiversity in a warming climate. Predictions and extrapolations for species’ geography based on climate change expected under global, climate model scenarios suggest strongly that the observed shifts are but the first step in a dramatic, broad-scale reorganization of global distributions of biodiversity. As a consequence, many shifts, disappearances, and invasions are expected as biodiversity responds to changing Earth climates. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank valued colleagues David Vieglais, Enrique Martinez-Meyer, Ricardo Scachetti Pereira, and Adolfo Navarro-Sigiienza for many helpful discussions and ideas. This research was supported by grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation.
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NEW FINGERPRINTS OF HUMAN EFFECTS ON CLIMATE B.D. SANTER Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, USA T.M.L. WIGLEY National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA mTRODUCTION
In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. The goals of this panel were threefold: to assess available scientific information on climate change, to evaluate the environmental and societal impacts of climate change, and to formulate response strategies. The IPCC’s first major scientific assessment, published in 1990, concluded that “unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more” (Houghton et al., 1990, page xxix). Six years later, the IPCC’s second scientific assessment reached a more definitive conclusion regarding human impacts on climate, and stated that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (Houghton et al., 1996, page 4). This cautious sentence marked a paradigm shift in scientific understanding of the nature and causes of recent climate change. The shift arose for a variety of reasons. Chief amongst these was the realization that the cooling effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols had partially obscured the warming signal arising from increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). A further major area of progress was the increasing use of so-called “fingerprint” studies, which involve detailed statistical comparisons of modeled and observed climate change patterns. “Fingerprinting” relies on the fact that each climate forcing mechanism (e.g., changes in solar irradiance, volcanic dust, sulfate aerosols, or GHG concentrations) has a unique pattern of response in climate records. Fingerprint studies have greatly enhanced our ability to diagnose cause and effect relationships in the climate system. The third and most recent IPCC assessment went one step further than its predecessor, and made an explicit statement about the magnitude of the human effect on climate. It concluded that “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” (Houghton et al., 2001, page 4). This conclusion was based on improved estimates of natural climate variability, better reconstructions of temperature fluctuations over the last millenium, continued warming of the climate system, refinements in fingerprint methodology, and the use of results from more (and improved) climate models, driven by more accurate and complete forcing estimates. The “bottom line” conclusions of the IPCC’s second and third scientific assessments have been endorsed by other independent evaluations, most recently by the US. National Academy of Sciences WAS, 2001). The clear message from these assessments is that human activities have altered both the chemical composition of the
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Earth’s atmosphere and the climate system. Changes in atmospheric composition are an immutable fact, not speculation. Evidence of such anthropogenic perturbations includes increases in well-mixed GHGs, decreases in stratospheric ozone, and changes in the atmospheric burdens of sulfate and soot aerosols. All of these atmospheric constituents interact with incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation and their potential to modify the climate significantly is undeniable. Human-induced changes in their concentrations modify the “natural” radiative balance of Earth’s atmosphere, and therefore perturb climate. Despite the overwhelming scientific evidence of pronounced anthropogenic effects on climate, important uncertainties remain. The experiment that we are performing with the Earth’s atmosphere lacks a suitable control - we do not have a convenient “parallel Earth”, on which there are no human-induced changes in atmospheric chemistry. We must therefore rely on other sources of information to estimate how the Earth’s climate might have evolved in the absence of any human intervention. Such sources include numerical models and proxy data (e.g., tree rings, ice cores, corals, boreholes; Mann and Jones, 2003). Numerical models and paleoclimatic reconstructions will always have uncertainties - so there will always be uncertainties in our estimates of the climate of “undisturbed Earth”, and hence in the magnitude of human effects on climate. One criticism of the “discernible human influence” findings of previous international and national assessments is that they have relied almost exclusively on fingerprint studies involving changes in near-surface temperature. This was a natural focus of initial work, since we live at the Earth’s surface, and are directly affected by surface temperature changes. Instrumental records of near-surface temperature span nearly 150 years and have reasonable spatial coverage for much of this period, making it one of the best-observed climate variables. Furthermore, climate model results indicate that surface temperatures should warm markedly in response to increasing GHG levels, suggesting that it is a good variable to monitor for evidence of an anthropogenic signal. It is not surprising, therefore, that the first fingerprint studies relied heavily on surface temperature (early exceptions are Santer et al., 1996, and Tett et al., 1996, both of which looked at zonal-mean, vertical temperature profiles). More recent fingerprint work, however, has considered a variety of other climate variables, such as changes in ocean heat content (Barnett et al., 2001), Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent (Vinnikov et al., 1999), sea level pressure (Gillett et al., 2003), and tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures (Santer et al., 2003a). These studies illustrate that a human-induced climate change signal is identifiable in many different aspects of the climate system. Such internal consistency, manifest in both observed and simulated climate changes, effectively refutes criticism that IPCC “discernible human influence” conclusions rest on a single variable only. The height of the tropopause is another variable that may provide useful information about the causes of recent climate change (Santer et al., 2003b,c). The tropopause is a transition zone between the turbulently-mixed troposphere (where most weather takes place) and the more stably-stratified stratosphere. It can be defined in a variety of different ways, based on thermal, chemical, or dynamical properties of the atmosphere (Hoinka, 1998; Seidel et al., 2001). In the following, we investigate whether changes in the height of the tropopause provide a further “fingerprint” of human effects on climate.
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DATA AND ANALYSIS METHODS We use a standard thermal definition of the tropopause to track changes in its height (World Meteorological Organization, 1957). This definition relies on lapse rates, which provide information about how temperature changes with increasing height (Figure 1). The algorithm that we employ to estimate tropopause height requires, as input, atmospheric temperature profiles (i.e., temperatures measured at discrete pressure levels above the Earth’s surface), and computes lapse rates from these profiles (Reichler et al., 1996). The algorithm identifies the level at which the lapse rate falls below a critical value of 2”C/km, and then remains less than this value for a specified vertical distance. The exact pressure at which the lapse rate attains this critical value is determined by linear interpolation. We refer to this pressure as PLRT (“pressure of lapse-Kate fropopause”). We calculate pLRT from both climate model and ‘observational’ temperature data. The model data are from the Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model (PCM), jointly developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Los Alamos National Laboratory (Washington et al., 2000). PCM is a state-of-the-art, coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (GCM), which has been used to perform a variety of different climate change experiments (Ammann et al., 2003). We analyze seven different experiments here? which differ in terms of the climate forcings included. The three anthropogenic forcings considered are changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases (G), the direct scattering effects of sulfate aerosols (A), and tropospheric and stratospheric ozone (0).The natural forcings are changes in total solar irradiance (S) and volcanic aerosols (V). In the first five experiments, only a single forcing was varied at a time - e.g., G was varied according to historical changes in GHGs, while A, 0, S, and V were held fixed at pre-industrial levels. In the sixth experiment (ALL), G, A, 0, S, and V were varied simultaneously. Only the natural forcings were changed in the final integration (SV). G, A, 0, and S commence in 1872, while V, SV, and ALL start in 1890. All seven experiments end in December 1999. To obtain more reliable estimates of the climate response to the imposed forcing change (i.e., to enhance the externally-forced signal relative to the ‘noise’ of internally-generated variability), four realizations of each experiment were performed. Each realization started from slightly different initial conditions. Since each has a different realization of the noise, averaging over all four approximately doubles the signal-to-noise ratio. For a full description of the experiments and forcings, see Santer et al. (2003~).A long (300 year) control integration was also performed, in which all five forcings were held fixed at pre-industrial values. This control run provides information about the unforced variability of the climate system (i.e., the internally-generated noise), which is a critical component of “fingerprint” detection work. Observational estimates of tropopause height were obtained from ‘reanalyses’, which are optimal combinations of numerical weather forecasts and observations (Pawson and Fiorino, 1999; Santer et al., 1999). Two different reanalysis products were used. The first (NCEP) was from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (Kalnay et al., 1996). The second (ERA) was performed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Gibson et al., 1997). NCEP data were available from 1948 to 2001, but data before 1979 are
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affected by serious inhomogeneities (Pawson and Fiorino, 1999; Santer et al., 1999) and were not used in our fingerprint analysis. ERA data were available for a much shorter period of time (1979 to 1993). As in the case of PCM data, PLRT was calculated from the NCEP and ERA atmospheric temperature profiles. Different climate forcing mechanisms have different effects on atmospheric temperature profiles, and hence on PLRT. Previous work has shown that PLRT is strongly influenced by temperature changes of the atmospheric layers above and below the tropopause (Santer et al., 2003b,c). To diagnose how different forcings affect PLRT,it is useful to calculate the average temperatures of the lower stratosphere and mid- to upper troposphere. In the real world, temperatures in these atmospheric layers are monitored by channels 4 and 2 of the satellite-based Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU). We calculated ‘equivalent’ MSU temperatures from PCM, NCEP, and ERA, using weighting functions to mimic how the MSU instrument samples the real-world atmosphere (Santer et al., 1999). ‘Equivalent’ MSU temperatures are referred to below as T4 (lower stratosphere) and T2 (mid to upper troposphere). GLOBAL-MEAN CHANGES
In both the PCM ALL and SV experiments, there is a small overall increase in tropopause height from 1890 to roughly 1965. This increase corresponds to an overall decrease in the pressure of the tropopause: i.e., PLRT declines by -1-2 hPa (Figure 2). From 1965 to 1999, tropopause height increases markedly in ALL, which includes anthropogenic forcings, but not in SV, which has solar and volcanic forcing only. The simulated height increase in ALL is in agreement with the global-mean height changes in both reanalyses (Figure 2)’. The multiple realizations of ALL and SV provide information about uncertainties in the climate response to the imposed forcings. These uncertainties arise from the inherently unpredictable noise of internally-generated variability. The four realizations of ALL and of SV define two different ‘envelopes’ of possible climate trajectories. These two envelopes clearly diverge in the 1980s. In ‘PCM world’, it is clear that the increase in tropopause height over the last two decades of the 20th century could not be due to the combined effects of natural internal variability and forcing by the Sun and volcanoes alone. Superimposed on these multi-decadal changes in tropopause height are large, shortterm (2-3 year) height decreases associated with the eruptions of Santa Maria (in 1902), Agung (in 1963), El Chich6n (in 1982) and Pinatubo (in 1991). These volcanic signals are large relative to the internal ‘noise’ of PLRT in volcanically-quiescent periods. The volcanic tropopause height signals in PCM are larger than in NCEP and ERA, for reasons discussed in Santer et al. (2003~). Figure 3 provides a simple conceptual model for interpretation of these low- and high-frequency PLRT changes. Calculations performed with simple radiative convective models and more complex atmospheric GCMs show that increases in atmospheric C02 cool the stratosphere and warm the troposphere (e.g., Hansen et al., 1984; Manabe and Wetherald, 1987). Both of these changes tend to increase tropopause height. Depletion of stratospheric ozone also causes a net increase in tropopause height through strong cooling of the stratosphere.” In contrast, volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere absorb
73 incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, thus warming the stratosphere and cooling the troposphere. Both of these changes decrease tropopause height. The previously-described PLRT changes in PCM, NCEP, and ERA are qualitatively consistent with this simple conceptual model. CONTRIBUTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL FORCINGS TO TROPOPAUSE HEIGHT CHANGES The PCM "individual forcing" experiments help to isolate the effects of different forcings on the atmospheric temperature profile, and hence on tropopause height. From the ensemble-means of G, A, 0, S, V, and ALL, we first calculated zonal-mean, monthlymean anomalies,"' and then computed the total linear changes" in T4, T2, and PLRT over 1900-1999. Consider first the results for stratospheric temperature changes (Figure 4A). ALL is characterized by coherent cooling of the stratosphere over the 20th century. This cooling is smallest in the tropics and largest at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Stratospheric ozone depletion is the major contributor to the T4 changes in ALL, consistent with findings by Ramaswamy et al. (1996). Ozone forcing also influences the hemispheric asymmetry in ALL's T4 changes,v since ozone-induced cooling is largest at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, where stratospheric ozone decreases are greatest. The stratospheric temperature response to well-mixed GHGs has a similar (but smaller) hemispheric asymmetry. The total linear changes in T4 caused by A, S, and V are much smaller than those arising from 0 and G. The direct (scattering) effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols yields a small net cooling of the stratosphere over 1900-1999, while the assumed increase in solar irradiance in the S experimentVileads to a slight warming of the stratosphere.vii Volcanic aerosols also cause a small overall warming of the stratosphere, primarily due to the occurrence of two large eruptions near the end of the century. The troposphere warms at most latitudes in the ALL case, with maximum warming in the tropics (Figure 4B).v"1 Well-mixed GHGs are the major contributor to this warming. The positive contribution of G is partly offset by the small net tropospheric coolings caused by sulfate aerosols, ozone, and volcanoes. Note that the T2 changes induced by sulfate aerosols have pronounced hemispheric asymmetry, with maximum tropospheric cooling in the Northern Hemisphere (where anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing is largest). Although the net effect of ozone changes is to cool T2, low-latitude increases in tropospheric ozone warm the tropical troposphere. Changes in solar irradiance also yield a small warming of T2. Figure 4C illustrates that ozone and well-mixed GHGs are the dominant influences on the tropopause height changes in ALL. Both forcings increase the height of the tropopause at all latitudes. The hemispheric asymmetry in ALL's height changes (with largest height increases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere) is primarily due to hemispheric asymmetries in the T4 responses to 0 and G (Figure 4A). As expected on the basis of our conceptual model (Figure 3), A and V produce slight decreases in tropopause height (increases in PLRT).Since forcing by S warms both T4 and T2, with offsetting effects on PLRT,the net effect of S depends on the relative magnitudes of stratospheric and tropospheric warming. In PCM, tropospheric warming predominates, and the net effect of S is a small increase in tropopause height.
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Figure 5 summarizes the effects of different forcings on the global-mean changes in tropopause height, T4, and T2. It shows the total linear changes in these three variables for the ALL experiment and the five individual forcing cases (G, A, 0, S, and V). Over 1900 to 1999, anthropogenic forcing by ozone and well-mixed GHGs explains over 80% of the overall height increase in ALL (Figure 5A; see also Santer et al., 2003~).The ozone effect on pLRT is manifest primarily through cooling of the stratosphere (Figure 5B). The influence of well-mixed GHGs occurs mostly through warming of the troposphere (Figure 5C). In PCM, natural external forcings make only a small contribution to the simulated 20thcentury changes in tropopause height and atmospheric temperatures. FINGERPRINT ANALYSIS We have shown that there is consistency between the global-mean tropopause height changes in reanalyses and the PCM experiment with combined natural and anthropogenic forcing (Figure 2). Results from the SV experiment indicate that this global-mean correspondence could not be achieved by natural forcing only. Global-mean agreement alone, however, does not provide compelling evidence of causality. A more reliable way of studying cause-effect relationships involves comparison of modeled and observed spatial patterns. As noted previously, the expected pattern of tropopause height change in response to combined natural and anthropogenic forcing (the “fingerprint”) has pronounced meridional structure and hemispheric asymmetry (Figure 4C). These largescale features are physically interpretable: they are related to the characteristic patterns of zonal-mean atmospheric temperature change arising from forcing by 0 and G (Figure 4A,B). Identification of the PCM ALL fingerprint pattern in reanalyses would enable us to attribute observed tropopause height changes to the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural forcing. We use a standard “fingerprinting” technique (Hasselmann, 1979). The fingerprint is obtained from the PCM ALL ensemble mean, and therefore represents the expected climate-change response to combined forcing by G, A, 0, S, and V. Our strategy is to search for an increasing expression of f in the reanalysis tropopause height data, and to estimate the “detection time” - the time at which the fingerprint becomes consistently identifiable gj a stipulated 5% significance level. We use both “raw” and “optimized” versions of f , referred to in Figure 6 as “RAW’ and :OPT”. Optimization is a standard statistical procedure that enhances the detectability of f by rotating the fingerprint away from high noise components.” We also perform the fingerprint analysis with and without the global-mean component of tropopause height change. Removal of global-mean changes focuses attention on smaller spatial scales, and constitutes a more rigorous test of modelldata pattern similarity. Fingerprinting relies on estimates of the internally-generated climate noise, which are obtained here from 300-year control runs (with no changes in external forcings) performed with PCM and the ECHAMWOPYC model (ECHAM) of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg (Roeckner et al., 1996). The use of control runs from two different models accounts for uncertainties in model-based estimates of internal variability. We note that our fingerprint test is performed with full 1atitudeAongitude patterns of tropopause height change rather than the zonal-mean patterns shown in Figure
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75 4C. The full 1atitudeAongitude patterns are shown in Santer et al. (2003c), which also provides further technical details of the fingerprinting procedure. In our fingerprint method, the assumed “start date” for monitoring tropopause height changes is 1979 (the beginning of both the ERA data and of the more reliable portion of the NCEP reanalysis). We need a miEimum- of 10 years of reanalysis data in which to search for the model-based fingerprint f . If f cannot be detected in the first 10 year “chunk” of NCEP or ERA (i.e., in data from 1979-1988), we add an additional year of data (1989), and repeat the detectionprocedure. This extension of the analysis period continues until we have either detected f , or the reanalysis data end (in 2001 for NCEP, and 1993 for ERA). When the global-mean is included, the ALL tropopause height fingerprint can be identified in both NCEP and ERA (Figure 6). Detection of the “,W’ fingerprint occurs in 1988 - the earliest possible detection date. Optimization of f cannot improve this result (which is already the best possible), When the global-mean is removed, and attention focuses on smaller spatial scales, f can be identified in the NCEP data only, and at a later date (1995) than in the “mean included” case. This suggests that the ERA data (which ends in 1993) is simply too short to identify the “mean removed” fingerprint. Our detection results are relatively insensitive to the choice of model control run used to estimate natural variability noise or optimize the fingerprint. CONCLUSIONS
In evaluating how well a novel has been crafted, it is important to look at the internal consistency of the plot. Critical readers examine whether the individual storylines are neatly woven together, and whether the internal logic makes sense. We can ask similar questions about the “story” contained in observational records of climate change. The evidence from previous fingerprint studies indicates that the climate system provides us with an internally consistent account of the causes of recent climate change. Over the last century, the Earth’s oceans and land surface have warmed (Bamett et al., 2001; Jones et al., 1999). Glaciers have retreated over most of the globe. Sea level has risen. Snow and sea-ice extent have decreased in the Northern Hemisphere (Vinnikov et al., 1999). The stratosphere has cooled, and there are now reliable indications that the troposphere has warned (Mears et al., 2003; Santer et al., 2003a). All of these changes are consistent with our scientific understanding of how the climate system should be responding to anthropogenic forcing. They are not consistent with the changes that we would expect to occur due to natural forcings only. Changes in tropopause height are yet another piece of the climate-change puzzle. Other studies have documented an increase in the height of the tropopause in radiosondes and reanalyses (Highwood et al., 2000; Randel et al., 2000; Seidel et al., 2001). Our work is the first to illustrate that observed changes are consistent with climate model results (Santer et al., 2003b,c). This consistency holds for both global-mean increases, as well as for more complex spatial patterns of tropopause height change. We find that the simulated increase in tropopause height is mainly due to two anthropogenic factors: the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion (which cools the stratosphere) and increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (which warm the troposphere). effects are necessary to explain the observed height increases.
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Our results strengthen the scientific case for a discernible human impact on global climate. We note, however, that there are still significant uncertainties in climate models, in observations, in estimates of climate forcings, and in our physical understanding of the climate system. The difficult problem that confronts us - as citizens of this planet - is how to act in the face of both scientific uncertainty and growing scientific evidence that our actions are altering global climate. We should be very clear about one point. The decisions we reach today will influence the climate that future generations inherit. REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4.
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29. Seidel, D.J., R.J. Ross, J.K. Angell, and G.C. Reid, 2001: Climatological characteristics of the tropical tropopause as revealed by radiosondes. J. Geophys. Res., 106,7857-7878. 30. Shaviv, N.J., and J. Veizer, 2003: Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate? GSA Today, 13,4-10. 31. Tett, S.F.B., J.F.B. Mitchell, D.E. Parker and M.R. Allen, 1996: Human influence on the atmospheric vertical temperature structure: Detection and observations. Science, 274, 1170-1173. 32. Vinnikov, K.Y., A. Robock, R.J. Stouffer, J.E. Walsh, C.L. Parkinson, D.J. Cavalieri, J.F.B. Mitchell, D. Garrett, and V.F. Zakharov, 1999: Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent. Science, 286, 1934-1937. 33. Washington, W.M., J.W. Weatherly, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Semtner Jr., T.W. Bettge, A.P. Craig, W.G. Strand, J. Arblaster, V.B. Wayland, R. James and Y . Zhang, 2000: Parallel Climate Model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Clim. Dyn., 16, 755-774. 34. Wigley, T.M.L., B.D. Santer, J.M. Arblaster, C. Ammann, G.A. Meehl, and M.F. Wehner, 2003: Testing for additivity in climate model responses to external forcing: The effect of model drift.In preparation. 35. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1957: Meteorology: A threedimensional science. Second Session of the commission for aerology. WMO Bull., 6(4), 134-138.
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Temperature (Kelvin)
Figure 1.: Typical low-latitude atmospheric temperature profile in the NCEP reanalysis. Results are climatological means over 1979-1997, and have been averaged from the equator to 30"N. The estimated tropopause pressure, PLRT,was computed with the algorithm of Reichler et al. (1996), and is indicated by the dashed horizontal line.
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Global Mean Changes in Tropopause Pressure A
-5 m m0)
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Figure 2.: Time series of global-mean monthly-mean anomalies in tropopause pressure, PLRT. Model results are from the PCM experiments with combined natural and anthropogenic forcing (ALL), and with natural forcing only (SV). There are four realizations of each experiment. The shaded areas mark the range between the highest and lowest values of the realizations. Darker shading denotes ALL results; lighter shading represents SV. The ensemble-mean values of ALL and SV are given by thin solid and thin dashed lines (respectively). All model PLRT anomalies were defined relative to climatological monthly means computed over 1890-1909. Estimates of 'observed' PLRT are from the NCEP reanalysis (thick solid line). Pre-1960 NCEP data were ignored because of deficiencies in the coverage and quality of assimilated radiosonde data. NCEP was forced to have the same mean as ALL over 1960-1999. Both PCM and NCEP results were low-pass filtered. Note that an increase in tropopause height corresponds to a decrease in PLRT.
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- Baseline temperature profile Cooling - - - - - -- Warming
Figure 3.: Conceptual model for the effect of three different forcings on tropopause height. The solid black lines are the ‘baseline’ atmospheric temperature profiles. The forcings shown here - depletion of stratospheric ozone, increasing atmospheric COz, and explosive volcanic eruptions - perturb this base state. The effect of the first two forcings is to increase tropopause height (indicated by the upward-pointing arrows), while volcanic aerosols decrease the height of the tropopause. The actual temperature perturbations associated with these forcings are more complex as a function of both altitude and latitude than the idealized changes illustrated here (Santer et al., 2003b).
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Zonal Mean Changes in T4, T2, and pLRTin PCM 0.5 0 -0.5 0 ,0
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Figure 4.: Zonal-mean changes in stratospheric temperature (T4; panel A), tropospheric temperature (T2; panel B) and tropopause height ( p ~ p , ;~panel C). Results are expressed as the total linear changes over 1900-1999, and were computed using ensemble-mean data from the PCM G, A, 0, S, V, and ALL experiments.
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Tropopause Height and Temperature Changes in PCM Contributions over 1900-1999
0.8 0.6 0.4 5 0.2
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V (volcanoes) I All forcings E 3 SUM (G+A+O+S+V)
Figure 5.: Total linear changes in global-mean, monthly-mean tropopause height (A), stratospheric temperature (B), and tropospheric temperature (C) in PCM experiments with individual forcings (G, A, 0, S, and V) and combined natural and anthropogenic forcings (ALL). Linear changes were calculated for the period 1900-1999 using ensemble-mean data. Anomalies were defined relative to climatological monthly means computed over 1900-1999. “SUM” is the sum of the linear changes in the five experiments with individual forcing.
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Mean included I
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Figure 6.: Detection times for the tropopause height “fingerprint” simulated in the PCM ALL experiment. Here is the (1atitudeAongitude) pattern of tropopause height change in response to combined natural and anthropogenic forcing, and is defined as described in Santer et al. (2003~).The fingerprint is searched for in two different ‘observational’ datasets (the NCEP and ERA reanalyses). Both raw and optimized versions of the fingerprint are employed (RAW and OPT). The left (right) side of the figure shows detection results achieved when the global-mean component of tropopause height change is included (removed). Control runs from two different models (PGM and ECHAM) are used for estimating natural variability statistics and optimizing f .The presence of a bar indicates positive detection of the fingerprig. The longer the bar, the earlier the detection date. The absence of a bar means that f could not be identified before the end of the reanalysis (2001 for NCEP, 1993 for ERA).
8 ‘ It is also in agreement with the changes in ERA (not shown). Depletion of stratospheric ozone cools both the stratosphere and the troposphere. These changes have effects of opposite sign on tropopause height. The stratospheric cooling influence predominates, so the net effect of ozone depletion is to raise tropopause height (Figure 3). Relative to climatological monthly means over 1900-1999. I” The total linear change is expressed as b x n, where b is the slope parameter of the leastsquares linear trend (in hPa/month or “C/month),calculated over n months. v Note that there is residual climate drift in the PCM control run. This drift is related to the behavior of sea ice. It is not hemispherically symmetric, and has a pronounced signature in near-surface temperature fields (Wigley et al., 2003). Since this residual climate drift was not subtracted from the PCM perturbation experiments analyzed here, it influences the results shown in Figure 4, and imparts some hemispheric asymmetry to the estimated linear changes. This “drift contamination” effect is largest close to the Earths surface, and is probably small for T4 changes. vl Total solar irradiance changes were prescribed according to Hoyt and Schatten (1993). There was no wavelength dependence of the forcing. vii Recently, Shauiu and Veizer (2003) have argued that solar-induced changes in cosmic ray flux influence the behavior of low-level tropical clouds, and that this mechanism might explain nearly two-thirds of observed near-surface temperature changes over the past 150 years. This argument cannot explain the pronounced cooling of the extratropical stratosphere seen in radiosondes and satellite-based MSU measurements (see, e.g., Santer et al., 1999, 2003a). Cosmic ray-induced amplification of the direct effect of solar irradiance changes (direct irrahance changes are the only solar forcing employed here) would also lead to marked discrepancies between modeled and observed T2 changes. viu Note that T2 cools a t high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. T h s occurs some of the strong stratospheric cooling in this region is sampled by the T2 weighting function used to compute an ‘equivalent’ MSU temperature. ix Here, this rotation is performed in the space of the first 15 Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of the PCM and ECHAM control runs.
PALEOCLIMATE IMPLICATIONS FOR RECENT HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE MICHAEL E. MANN Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia Charlottesville, USA Documenting past temperature changes is of particular importance in placing recent climate change in an appropriate long-term context. Because the fundamental boundary conditions on the climate (the parameters of the earth's orbit relative to the sun, and global patterns of vegetation and continental ice cover) have not changed appreciably over the past one-to-two millennia, the variations that have occurred in climate during this period are likely representative of the range of natural climate variability that might be expected in the absence of any human influence on climate. Placing modem (20th21st century) global warming in this longer-term context can thus aid in our ability to determine the role of anthropogenic factors, such as human greenhouse gas concentration increases, in more recent climate changes. Instrumental meteorological records can only provide a widespread direct indication of climate changes over roughly the past century. Prior to that, relatively few instrumental records are available (Jones et al, 1999). However, a number of distinct approaches exist for describing climate variations over a timeframe of roughly the past millennium. Among these is the use of theoretical models of the climate system that are driven with estimated changes in external parameters or 'forcings' such as greenhouse gas concentrations and solar output, which tend to warm the climate, and the fiequency and intensity of explosive volcanic eruptions which cool the climate through injecting reflective sulphate aerosol into the atmosphere (Crowley, 2000; Gerber et al, 2002; Bauer et al, 2003) This approach to reconstructing the past temperature history is limited by the imperfectly known history of these changes in forcing, which are typically estimated indirectly from trapped gas, radioisotopes and volcanic dust signals left behind in ice cores (Crowley, 2000). Moreover, the reconstruction is limited by any uncertainties in the model's representation of actual climate processes and responses. Finally, the approach only indicates the forced component of climate change; it cannot estimate the possible role of internal dynamics (e.g. natural changes in ocean circulation) in the actual climate changes in past centuries. Human documentary evidence provides another source for reconstructing climate in past centuries (see e.g. Wigley et al, 1981; Bradley, 1999). Records of frost dates, droughts, famines, the freezing of water bodies, duration of snow cover, and phenological evidence (e.g. the dates of flowering of plants, and the ranges of various species of plants) can provide insight into past climate conditions. Human accounts of mountain glacier retreats and advance during past centuries, diary or anecdotal evidence of weather conditions, and even a hand full of several centuries-long thermometer measurements, furthermore, are available in Europe for more than 1000 years. Plentiful human documentary evidence is limited, however, to those regions brimarily Europe and Eastern Asia) where a written tradition existed. They are thus not useful for documenting hemispheric, let alone global-scale climate variations, several centuries into the past. It is also important to note that human documentary records must be interpreted with caution,
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as they are not equivalent in their reliability to actual instrumental measurements of meteorological variables. Typically, these records provide indirect and potentially biased snapshots in time of climate-related phenomena. Geological evidence from terminal glacial moraines indicating the advance of mountain glaciers in past centuries can also provide inferences into past climate changes. However, owing to the complex balance between local changes in melting and ice accumulation, and the effects of topography, all of which influence mountain glacier extents, it is difficult to ascertain the true nature of temperature changes simply from evidence of retreat of mountain glaciers (e.g. Folland et al, 2001). Both increased winter precipitation and cooler summer temperatures can lead to the growth of a glacier, and large or even moderate glaciers respond slowly to any underlying climate changes. Estimates of long-term ground temperature trends from temperatures profiles retrieved from terrestrial borehole data over the globe (Huang et al, 2000) can also provide complementary large-scale information regarding ground surface temperature trends in past centuries, but impacts of changes in seasonal snow cover, land-surface changes, and other factors appear to yield biased estimates of past surface air temperature changes from such data (Mann et al, 2003). A more quantifiable source of information on climate changes in past centuries is provided by 'proxy' indicators of climate change - natural archives of information which, by their biological or physical nature, record climate-related phenomena (Bradley, 1999; Folland et al, 2001). Certain proxy indicators, including most sediments cores, ice cores, and preserved pollen do not have the capability to record climate changes at high temporal resolution, and are thus generally not useful for reconstructing climate changes over the past several centuries. However, high-resolution (annually-resolved) proxy climate records such as growth and density measurements from tree rings, laminated sediment cores, annually resolved ice cores, and isotopic information from corals can be used to describe year-to-year patterns of climate in past centuries (Bradley and Jones, 1993; Mann et al, 1998; 1999; Jones et al, 1998; Crowley and Lowery, 2000; Briffa et al, 2001). These indirect measurements of climate change vary considerably in their reliability as indicators of long-term climate (varying in the degree of influence by nonclimatic effects, the seasonal nature of the climate information recorded, and the extent to which the records have been "verified" by comparison with independent data). However, when taken together, and particularly, when combined with historical documentary information and the few long instrumental climate records available, they can provide a meaningll annually-resolved documentation of large-scale climate changes in past centuries, including patterns of surface temperature change, drought, and atmospheric circulation. Global assemblages of such high-resolution proxy indicators can be related to the modem instrumental surface temperature record, and then used to yield reconstructions of large-scale surface temperature patterns over several centuries, back over roughly the past millennium. The detailed spatial patterns of these reconstructions can often provide insights into the underlying climate changes. Hemispheric or global mean surface temperature estimates can be derived by spatially averaging over such estimates of past large-scale patterns of surface temperature change. It is most meaningful to estimate the average surface temperature changes for the Northern Hemisphere, where considerably more widespread past data is available. Different estimates of Northern Hemisphere
8 8 temperature changes over the past millennium have been made, using different sources of proxy data, some of which are representative of the full Northern Hemisphere, others of which are more indicative of extra-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The various proxy and model-based hemispheric temperature estimates, taken on the whole, indicate relatively modest variations in temperature over the past 1000 years, prior to the pronounced 20th century warming (Figure 1). At the full hemispheric scale, temperatures appear to have been slightly warmer (a couple of tenths of a degree C) during the period AD 1000-1400 than during the later, colder period AD 1400-1900. There is, however, no other multi-decadal period during the past millennium that is comparable, in warmth, to the latter 20th century. In fact, this conclusion likely extends to at least the past two millennia (Briffa and Osborn, 1999; Yang et al, 2002), though the fewer available proxy data lead to considerably greater uncertainty in reconstructions prior to the past thousand years. Some extra-tropical summer temperature reconstructions (Esper et al, 2002) suggest wider swings in temperature, including greater cooling during the 17th-19th century than is evident in either the instrumental, model, or proxy-based estimates. The greater variability in this case probably arises from the emphasis on extratropical continental regions (Mann, 2002). Regional variations in surface temperature in past centuries appear to have often been of greater amplitude than those for hemisphere mean, but were often not synchronous. In fact, offsetting patterns of cooling and warming in different regions in past centuries (e.g. Bradley and Jones, 1993; Hughes and Diaz, 1994; Crowley and Lowery, 2000) yield far more modest variations evident in hemispheric mean temperature. For this reason, regional evidence can often provide a very misleading picture of large-scale climate changes. While European temperatures indicate a distinct cold phase from the 17th-19th centuries for example (the so-called "Little Ice Age" of Europe--e.g. Lamb, 1965), with average winter temperatures during the coldest decades of the 17th century probably 2' C or colder relative to late 20th century temperatures (e.g. Shindell et al, 2001), the trend in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature (i.e. Figure 1) shows a far smaller, and more steady, long-term pattern of cooling prior to the 20th century. It is probable that the greater cooling during the "Little Ice Age" of Europe was associated with a regional enhancement of cooling by a tendency for the 'negative phase' of an atmospheric circulation pattern, the 'North Atlantic Oscillation' ("AO'), that is associated with a southward displacement in the mean position of the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic ocean and neighboring continental regions. Recent evidence suggests that the NAO can be altered, for example, by changes in the output of the sun (Shindell et al, 2001). Such changes may have led to enhanced cooling in Europe during the 18th century, when solar output was slightly weaker, and winter atmospheric circulation changes favored strong cooling in Europe, but much weaker cooling for the Northern Hemisphere on the whole (Shindell et al, 2001). The complexity of such regional variations in temperature trends underscores the principle that it is perilous to draw conclusions regarding hemispheric or global temperature trends from isolated regional information. While some challenges remain in reducing uncertainties in the regional details of past climate change, the conclusion that late 20th century hemispheric-scale warmth is anomalous in a long-term (at least millennial) context, and that anthropogenic factors
8 likely play an important role in explaining the anomalous recent warmth, represents the consensus view of the climate research community (Folland et al, 2001).
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Time A.D. Figure 1. Comparison of proxy-based NH temperature reconstructions [Jones et al, 1998; Mann et al, 1999; CrowZey andLowery, 20001 with model simulations of NH mean temperature changes over the past millennium based on estimated radiative forcing histories [Crowley, 2000; Gerber et al, 2002--results shown for both a 1.5' C I 2 x C02 and 2.5" C I 2 x C02 sensitivity; Bauer et al, 20031. Also shown is an independent reconstruction of warm-season extra-tropical continental NH temperatures [Esper et al, 20021. All reconstructions have been scaled to the annual, full Northern Hemisphere mean, over an overlapping period (1856-1980), using the NH instrumental record [Jones et al, 19991 for comparison, and have been smoothed on time scales of >40 years to highlight the long-term variations. The smoothed instrumental record (1856-2000) is also shown. The gray shading indicates estimated two-standard error uncertainties in the Mann et a1 [1999] reconstruction [Adapted from Mann, 20021.
9 0 REFERENCES 1. Bauer, E., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., Assessing climate forcings of the earth system for the past millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 (6), 1276-1279, doi: 10,1029/2002GL016639,2003. 2. Bradley, R.S., Paleoclimatology: reconstructing climates of the Quaternary. Harcourt , Academic Press, San Diego, 61Opp, 1999. 3. Bradley, R.S., and P.D. Jones, "Little Ice Age" summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends, The Holocene, 3, 367376,1993. 4.Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D, Mann, M.E., Scope of Medieval Warming, Science, 292,201 1-2012,2001. S.Briffa, K.R., T.J. Osbom, F.H. Schweingruber, I.C. Harris, P.D. Jones, S.G. Shiyatov, S.G. and E.A. Vaganov, Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree-ring density network. J. Geophys. Res., 106,2929-2941,2001. 6. Briffa, K.R., and T.J. Osbom, Seeing the Wood from the Trees, Science, 284, 926-927, 1999. 7. Crowley, T.J., Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science, 289, 270-277, 2000. 8. Crowley, T.J., and T. Lowery, How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?, Ambio, 29, 51-54,2000. 9.Esper, J., E.R. Cook and F.H. Schweingruber, Low-frequency signals in long treeline chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability, Science, 295, 2250-2253,2002. 10. Folland, C.K., T.R. Karl, J.R. Christy, R.A. Clarke, G.V. Gruza, J. Jouzel, M.E. Mann, J. Oerlemans, M.J. Salinger, S.-W. Wang, Observed Climate Variability and Change, in Climate Change 2001: The ScientiJic Basis, edited by J.T. Houghton et al., pp. 99-181, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 2001. 11. Gerber, S., F. Joos, P. Briigger, T. F. Stocker, M. E. Mann, S. Sitch, and M. Scholze, Constraining temperature variations over the last millennium by comparing simulated and observed atmospheric COz, Climate Dynamics, 20,28 1299,2003. 12. Huang, S., H. N.Pollack and P.-Y. Shen, Temperature Trends Over the Past Five Centuries Reconstructed from Borehole Temperature, Nature 403,756-758,2000. 13. Hughes, M.K. and H.F. Diaz, "Was there a 'Medieval Warm Period' and if so, when and where?" Climatic Change, 26, 109-142. 1994. 14. Jones, P.D., M. New, D.E. Parker, S. Martin, and I.G. Rigor, 1999: Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37, 173-199. 15. Lamb, H.H., The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel, Paleoceanogaphy, Paleoclimatology, Paleoecology, 1, 13-37, 1965.
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16. Mann, M.E., The Value of Multiple Proxies, Science, 297, 1481-1482,2002. 17. Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes, Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, 1998. 18. Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes, Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 759-762, 1999. 19. Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Keimig, F.T., Optimal Surface Temperature Reconstructions Using Terrestrial Borehole Data, Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (D7), 4203, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002532,2003. 20. Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A., Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, 2149-2152, 2001. 21. Wigley, T.M.L., Ingram, M.J., Farmer, G., Past Climates and their impact on Man: a review. in Climate and Histoly, Cambridge University Press, eds T.M.L. Wigley, M.J. Ingram, G. Farmer, pp. 3-50, 1981. 22. Yang, B., Braeuning, A., Johnson, K.R. and Yafeng, S., General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia, Geophys. Res. Letts., 10.1029/2001GL014485,2002.
EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL WARMING
DAVID PARKER AND CHRIS FOLLAND Hadley Centre, Met Office, U.K. ABSTRACT We review the evidence for global warming, firstly focusing on ocean surface water and air temperatures, and on air temperatures measured at land stations. We assess the various uncertainties involved in the use of these data to monitor climate, namely time-varying biases, random and sampling errors, and the uncertainties arising from the absence of data in substantial regions of the world especially in the earlier parts of the instrumental record. We then consider the radiosonde and satellite temperature records for the atmosphere up to the lower stratosphere. In the troposphere the pattern of warming is somewhat different from that at the surface, while in the lower stratosphere cooling is seen, as would be expected with an increase in greenhouse gases and a decrease in ozone. We offer an explanation as to why almost worldwide surface warming in the last 25 years has not been accompanied by warming in the tropical troposphere. SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE ANALYSES The major sources of uncertainty in estimating regional and global temperature deviations’ and trends are: incomplete geographical and temporal coverage of data; random measurement and sampling errors; and uncertainties due to systematic biases andor in the bias-corrections. Application of optimum averaging techniques, and additional estimates of bias-uncertainties in global blended land surface air temperatures and sea surface temperatures, show that the influences of data gaps, and of random measurement and sampling errors, are much smaller than the effects of uncertainties in our knowledge of the biases (Figure 1 and Folland et al., 2001b). Despite the latter uncertainties, the total two standard error uncertainty is only about one third of the warming signal, as expressed in the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that global warming in the twentieth century was 0.6 *0.2“C. Broadly similar results are seen for the two hemispheres.
’ These are usually expressed as differences from a reference or “normal” period such as 1961- 1990, and termed “anomalies”. 92
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FIGURE 1.: Global surface temperature anomalies PC), 1861-2000, smoothed ) estimated porn with a 21-term binomial filter. Uncertainties (shading: 5 2 ~ were annual values allowing for serial correlation. Dark shading: uncertainties from reduced space optimal averaging alone; intermediate shading: with added sea surface temperature bias-correction and urbanisation uncertainties; light shading: also including land thermometer exposure uncertainties. From Folland et al., 2001b. It is worth pointing out that the situation would be somewhat different on substantially smaller space scales. Here uncertainties, due to data gaps in particular, would increase quite strongly in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, except for a few well-observed regions like Europe.
REASONS FOR CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATUREANALYSES The agreement between global trends of land surface air temperature, marine air temperature and sea surface temperature over the last 150 years (Figure 2, updated and slightly amended from P C C 2001 (Folland et al, 2001a)) constitutes strong evidence for the reality of the trends, because these data sets are obtained by almost independent methods, and wholly independent after 1893. The agreement between the land surface air temperature and the sea surface temperature is supported (Folland et al., 2001b) by the close agreement between the observed trends of land surface air temperature and those simulated by an atmospheric model forced with the observed sea surface temperatures when these include the Folland and Parker (1995) bias corrections used in Fig 1. A third strand in our confidence is from circumstantial evidence: worldwide glacial retreat, reduction of Arctic sea-ice cover, changes in the temperature of the ground as measured from borehole data, and phenological changes.
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Annual Anomalies, 1860 June 2003 Gtobat Average Temperatures
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Figure 2.: Comparison of long-term changes in global land surface air temperature, marine air temperature and sea surface temperature. Note that the recent land data show significantly more warming than in Folland et a1 (2001a). This is due to very warm years over land in 2001 and 2002 and some improvements in the land data themselves (Jones and Moberg, 2003).
PARADOX OF THE COOLING TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE In the late 1950s the radiosonde network became sufficiently widespread to allow estimates of global temperature anomalies. Since then, overall global warming trends at the surface and in the low-mid troposphere (2-10 km aloft) have been similar (Figure 3). However between the mid-1960s and around 1980 the surface warmed less than the air aloft globally, whereas since then the reverse has been true (inset to upper panel of Figure 3). In particular, since the initiation of satellite Microwave Sounding Unit temperature retrievals in 1979, the globally averaged troposphere has warmed less than the surface, resulting in widespread controversy (Wallace et al. (U.S. National Research Council), 2000; Folland et al., 2001a). In fact the key changes are mainly seen in the global tropics. Problems of urbanisation at the surface can be discounted as a major cause. This is because the satellite and surface trends are almost identical over USA and Europe, regions where recent strong urbanisation might most be suspected as a factor; and in addition much of the tropics, where the major discrepanciesoccur, are oceanic.
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Seasonal lower tropospheric anomalies, DJF f95711&8 to S%N 2002
and surFar;e tern eratu
Seasanal lower stratosnheric
Figure 3.: Global temperature variations for (a) the su$ace and low-mid troposphere and (8) the lower stratosphere. In (a), Microwave Sounding Unit MSU 2LT retrievals since 1979 (Christy et al., 2003; heavy black) are compared with radiosonde-based temperatures (Parker et al., 1997; thin black) and surface data (Jones et al., 2001; grey) since 1958. In (8). MSU Channel 4 and Stratospheric Sounding Unit SSU 15Xretrievals since 1979 (Spencer and Christy 1993; Christy et al.. 2003, heavy black) are compared with radiosonde-based temperatures (Parker et al. 1997; thin black) since 1958. Values (deg c)are for 3-month running seasons ending September to November 2002, and are expressed relative to the 1981-2000 average. The stratospheric radiosonde data are adjusted to compensatefor known instrumental changes since 1979 using MSU Channel 4 as a reference.
96 In the tropics, observations of the troposphere (up to 15km) since the late 1970s actually show a slight cooling. (Figure 4). This is contrary to model predictions and differs from trends at the tropical surface. Qualitative agreement between radiosonde and satellite microwave sounding unit data in the lower and middle troposphere suggests that the cooling is real. It is most significant in areas where deep atmospheric convection occurs. THE STRATOSPHERE Cooling of the stratosphere is expected when there is an increase in carbon dioxide, because carbon dioxide is a strong emitter of long wave radiation, and in the stratosphere such emissions to space are relatively unhindered. However the magnitude of recent global lower-stratospheric cooling (Figures 3 and 4) is considerably greater than expected from carbon dioxide alone, and can only be explained when observed reductions in lower-stratospheric ozone are taken into account (World Meteorological Organization, 2002). Even though the reduction of ozone in the tropical stratosphere has been small, strong stratospheric cooling is truly global, pastly because of the worldwide influence of carbon dioxide, though the cooling in the lower stratosphere is not statistically significant near the equator (Figure 4 and World Meteorological Organization, 2002) where there is strong, natural, inter-annual variability. There is some evidence that the cooling of the stratosphere has altered the heat balance and the convective characteristics of the air below in the tropics: this is a subject of ongoing research but may partially explain the results in Figure 4. There may be other partial explanations. Thus the heat balance of the tropics may vary on multi-decadal time scales due, for example, to changes in the behaviour of the El Niiio phenomenon.
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Figure 4.: Trends in zonal-mean temperature anomalies for 1979-2001 (“Udecade), based on radiosonde (Parker et al., 1997) and surface (Jones and Moberg, 2003) data. In the radiosonde dataset, stratospheric iemperatures were adjusted to be consistent with MSU retrievals for the lower stratosphere (Christy et al., 2000) where known instrument changes occurred and the biases werefound to be signijicant using a student’s t-test. The thick black contour indicates trends significant at the 5% level (two-sided t-test). Top: annual; lower left: December to February: lower right: June to August.
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CONCLUSIONS We can now estimate uncertainties in global and regional temperature trends. The changing biases in the data contribute most to these uncertainties on global or hemispheric space scales. To place future estimates of observed climatic changes on a surer footing, a set of Climate Monitoring Principles for the Global Climate Observing System has been endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Appendix 1). It is intended to apply these principles to a comprehensive Global Climate Observing System which will evolve from the current less satisfactory system that is more attuned to the less demanding needs of weather forecasting. Nevertheless, despite the substantial uncertainties in the observational record, both the direct and indirect evidence for global warming at the Earth’s surface is strongly leading IPCC 2001 to conclude that global warming over the last century is “virtually certain” (a probability exceeding 99%). However, much remains to be understood regarding temperature trends aloft. The requirement for a homogeneous, globally complete Global Climate Observing System, integrating satellite) as well as and in situ observing networks, is clear (Appendix 1). REFERENCES 1. Christy, J.R., Spencer, R.W. and Braswell, W.D., 2000: MSU tropospheric temperatures: dataset construction and radiosonde comparisons. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 17,1153-1170. 2. Christy, J.R., Spencer, R.W., Noms, W.B., Braswell, W.D. and Parker, D.E., 2003: Error estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU/AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 20,613-629. 3. Folland, C.K. and Parker, D.E., 1995: Correction of instrumental biases in historical sea surface temperature data. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 121,319-367.
4. Folland, C.K., Karl, T.R., Christy, J.R., Clarke, R.A., Gruza, G.V., Jouzel, J., Mann, M.E., Oerlemans, J., Salinger, M.J. and Wang, S.-W., 2001a: Observed Climate Variability and Change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientijk Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. J. T. Houghton et al., Cambridge Univ. Press. 5.
Folland, C.K., Rayner, N.A., Brown, S.J., Smith, T.M., Shen, S.S.P., Parker, D.E., Macadam, I., Jones, P.D., Jones, R.N., Nicholls, N. and Sexton, D.M.H. 2001b: Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophysical Research Letters, 28,262 1-2624.
6. Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A., 2003: Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. Journal of Climate, 16,206-223.
99 7. Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J., Briffa, K.R., Folland, C.K., Horton, E.B., Alexander, L.V., Parker, D.E. and Rayner, N.A., 2001: Adjusting for sampling density in grid-box land and ocean surface temperature time series. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106,3371-3380. 8. Parker, D.E., Folland, C.K. and Jackson, M., 1995: Marine surface temperature: observed variations and data requirements. Climatic Change, 31, 559-600. 9. Parker, D.E., Gordon, M., Cullum, D.P.N., Sexton, D.M.H., Folland, C.K. and Rayner, N., 1997: A new gridded radiosonde temperature database and recent temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 24, 1499-1502. 10. Spencer, R.W. and Christy, J.R., 1993: Precision lower stratospheric temperature monitoring with the MSU: technique, validation and results 1979-1991. Journal of Climate, 6, 1194-1204. 11. Wallace, J. M., Christy, J. R., Gaffen, D. J., Grody, N. C., Hansen, J. E., Parker, D. E., Peterson, T. C., Santer, B. D., Spencer, R. W., Trenberth, K. E. and Wentz, F. J., 2000: Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. U.S. National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D. C., 85PP. 12. World Meteorological Organization, 2002: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002. WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Report No. 47. 13. Other bibliography referred to in the presentations: 14. Diaz, H.F., Folland, C.K., Manabe, T., Parker, D.E., Reynolds, R.W. and Woodruff, S.D., 2002: Workshop on Advances in the Use of Historical Marine Climate Data (Boulder, Co., USA, 29th Jan - 1'' Feb 2002). WMO Bulletin, 51 (4), 377-380. 15. Parker, D.E., 1994: Effects of changing exposure of thermometers at land stations. International Journal of Climatology, 14, 1-31. 16. Rayner, N.A., Parker, D.E., Horton, E.B., Folland, C.K., Alexander, L.V, Rowell, D.P., Kent, E.C. and Kaplan, A., 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), century. 10.1029/2002JD002670.
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Appendix 1. Global Climate Observing Principles endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization at its 14'h Congress, 2003.
Effective monitoring systems for climate should adhere to the following principles *:
1. The impact of new systems or changes to existing systems should be assessed prior to implementation.
2. A suitable period of overlap for new and old observing systems is required. 3. The details and history of local conditions, instruments, operating procedures, data processing algorithms and other factors pertinent to interpreting data (i.e., metadata) should be documented and treated with the same care as the data themselves.
4. The quality and homogeneity of data should be regularly assessed as a part of routine operations. 5 . Consideration of the needs for environmental and climate-monitoring products
and assessments, such as IPCC assessments, should be integrated into national, regional and global observing priorities. 6. Operation of historically-uninterrupted stations and observing systems should be maintained.
7. High priority for additional observations should be focused on data-poor regions, poorly-observed parameters, regions sensitive to change, and key measurements with inadequate temporal resolution. 8. Long-term requirements, including appropriate sampling frequencies, should be specified to network designers, operators and instrument engineers at the outset of system design and implementation. 9. The conversion of research observing systems to long-term operations in a carefully-planned manner should be promoted. 10. Data management systems that facilitate access, use and interpretation of data and products should be included as essential elements of climate monitoring systems.
Furthermore, operators of satellite systems for monitoring climate need to: (a) Take steps to make radiance calibration, calibration-monitoring and satellite-tosatellite cross-calibration of thefull operational constellation a part of the operational satellite system; and (b) Take steps to sample the Earth system in such a way that climate-relevant (diurnal, seasonal, and long-term interannual) changes can be resolved.
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n u s satellite systems for climate monitoring should adhere to thefollowing specijfc principles: 11. Constant sampling within the diurnal cycle (minimizing the effects of orbital decay and orbit drift) should be maintained. 12. A suitable period of overlap for new and old satellite systems should be ensured for a period adequate to determine inter-satellite biases and maintain the homogeneity and consistency of time-series observations.
13. Continuity of satellite measurements (i.e. elimination of gaps in the long-term record) through appropriate launch and orbital strategies should be ensured. 14. Rigorous pre-launch instrument characterization and calibration, including radiance confirmation against an international radiance scale provided by a national metrology institute, should be ensured.
15. On-board calibration adequate for climate system observations should be ensured and associated instrument characteristics monitored. 16. Operational production of priority climate products should be sustained and peerreviewed new products should be introduced as appropriate.
17. Data systems needed to facilitate user access to climate products, metadata and raw data, including key data for delayed-mode analysis, should be established and maintained. 18. Use of functioning baseline instruments that meet the calibration and stability requirements stated above should be maintained for as long as possible, even when these exist on de-commissioned satellites.
19. Complementary in situ baseline observations for satellite measurements should be maintained through appropriate activities and cooperation. 20. Random errors and time-dependent biases in satellite observations and derived products should be identified.
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3.
ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS
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THE EMERGING SCIENCE OF ENDOCRINE DISRUPTION J.P. MYERS Environmental Health Sciences, White Hall, USA L.J. GUILLETTE, JR. Department of Zoology, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA P. PALANZA S. PARMIGIANI Dipartimento di Biologia Evolutiva e Funzionale, Parma University, Parma, Italy
S.H. SWAN Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Missouri-Columbia School of Medicine, Columbia, USA
F.S. VOM SAAL Division of Biological Sciences, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, USA In this essay we provide an overview of the emerging science of endocrine disruption. We begin with a brief definition and a consideration of several inter-related concepts that are forcing important conceptual shifts in the theory and practice of toxicological science. We then examine some of the empirical bases for these conceptual shifts, first from studies of wildlife, then from studies with laboratory animals. In a final section, we shift to a consideration of the considerable challenges this new view of toxicology creates for human epidemiology. Some progress, however, is being made towards a more “environmentally-sensitive epidemiology” which we describe briefly and illustrate with a recent example relating to marked regional differences in sperm count in men living in the USA.
BACKGROUND Definitions All living organisms depend upon a large and intricate array of chemical signaling systems to guide biological development and regulate cell and organ activity (McLachlan 2001). Over the past two decades, scientific interest in the ability of many environmental contaminants to interfere with these sensitive systems has grown dramatically. A hybrid science, the study of endocrine disruption, has arisen from concerns about the effects of these phenomena on health and the environment (Colbom et al. 1996). This science incorporates findings and methodologies from multiple disciplines including toxicology, endocrinology, developmental biology, molecular biology, ecology, behavioral biology and epidemiology. Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are chemicals that can disrupt thyroid hormones, androgens, estrogens and other endocrine processes. EDCs disrupt development by interfering with the hormonal signals that control normal development of the brain and other organ systems. EDCs can also affect adults by similar mechanisms
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because these same hormones also play important regulatory roles in adults (Colbom et al. 1993; Colbom et al. 1998). EDCs can act at very low levels of exposure to produce profound effects on the course an organism follows from fertilized oocyte through to maturity, adulthood and death. The effects of EDCs on developing organisms are of greatest concern, since the disruptive effects of developmental exposure are permanent and irreversibletermed organizational effects-whereas EDC exposure produces measurable, activational effects in adults that may be reversible. A related field of research, “developmental origins of health and adult disease” is converging with research on endocrine disruption to consider how exposures during different stages of development, particularly during fetal life, contribute to adult chronic diseases including obesity, heart disease, diabetes, decreased fertility, impaired immune function and neurological deficits. Data accumulated over the past two decades reveal substantial global contamination by EDCs. Contaminant dispersal is brought about by a combination of factors, including purposeful or accidental release into the environment followed by long-range atmospheric transport. It also occurs because some EDCs have been incorporated inadvertently into consumer products. With regard to long-range transport, large masses of air have been tracked across the Pacific carrying a variety of pollutants from central Asia to the west coast of the US virtually undiluted, including ozone, heavy metals and organochlorine compounds. In addition, so-called “global distillation” processesrepeated sequences of volatilization and condensation-transport semi-volatile compounds from sites of production, use and disposal to colder regions, particularly at high latitude and altitude. Two of many examples of inadvertent contamination of people due to the use of consumer products include exposure to phthalates and bisphenol A (Myers 2003). Phthalates are used as additives in cosmetics, intravenous tubing and other polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastics. Polyvinyl chloride products contain phthalates to soften the otherwise brittle PVC. Exposure to bisphenol A is also widespread. Bisphenol A is a monomer (not just an additive) used in the manufacture of resins that line the inner surface of food cans (over 100 billion manufactured per year in the USA alone), and to manufacture polycarbonate plastic, which is used to make food and beverage containers. Phthalates and bisphenol leach from these products and disrupt endocrine function. Coincident with emerging knowledge of the ability of EDCs to disrupt a range of developmental processes, a series of emerging human epidemics have been reported. These include increases in the frequency of preterm birth, obesity, cognitivehehavioral dysfunctions (such as autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, ADHD), and decreases in reproductive function (such as a decline in sperm count) and immune function. The strength of the epidemiological evidence demonstrating these epidemics varies. There is little argument that there has been a wide-spread increase in rates of obesity and diabetes, but there is still significant debate about global decreases in reproductive function or increases in ADHD, due to limitations of historical data. While extensive study will be required to identify causes of these trends, their underlying biology suggests that alterations in inter- and intra-cellular signaling processes may be causally involved, and for each of the mentioned epidemics, data are available indicating one or more points of vulnerability to EDCs in the mechanisms of control. EDCs may also contribute importantly to geographic variability in these health endpoints.
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Demonstration of such variation in semen quality and its relationship to current-use pesticides as a probable cause is one such example, discussed fkrther below. Theoretical concepts New scientific findings on these issues are emerging at an exponential rate. Central to these findings is a reformulation of the traditional dichotomy between nature and nurture (the gene vs. environment argument) in the causation of disease (Figure 1). NEW
TRADITIONAL HEREDITY
PHENOTYPE What we become
HEREDITY
PHENOTYPE: What we become
Fig 1.: Contrasting traditional with new formulations of the interactions of genes and environment in the determination ofphenotype. Traditionally, genetic diseases have been seen us determined by heredity. In the new formulation, genetic patterns ofgene expression are vulnerable to disruption by environmental contaminants at multiple points in the sequence of steps that lead to gene expression, thereby rendering genetic diseuses susceptible to modijkation by environmentalfactors. In the old formulation, that which is “nature” is based on genes, while “nurture” comes from the environment, sensu latu. Functional status and disease linked to genes have been perceived as completely determined by heredity. Diseases traditionally viewed as non-hereditary (“environmental”) can be caused by a wide array of exposures, stressors, experiences, nutrition and other life-style factors. Concern about environment’s interaction with the genetic determination of disease and functional differences has focused traditionally upon two pathways: 1. high-dose chemical exposures causing mutations and thus alterations in the base sequence of genes, and 2. genetic variation among individuals leading some to be more susceptible than others to certain contaminants. The study of endocrine disruption today is turning this historical conceptualization on its head. Rather than simply being a factor determined by inheritance, a property linked to a gene is one that is vulnerable to environmental disruption, particularly by EDCs. This is because EDCs acting at low levels can act by interfering with gene expression and other cellular activities. Clearly some functional deficits and disease states are due to inherited mutations in genetic makeup, but many more diseases may be associated with alterations in gene expression. Initially, the majority of research on EDCs focused on interference with gene activation by the hormone 17P-estradiol (the most potent endogenous estrogen). Many EDCs can stimulate genes and other cellular processes in a manner similar to estradiol,
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whereas other EDCs antagonize estradiol or block the synthesis of estradiol (Welshons et al. 2003). However, over the last decade, EDCs have been shown to disrupt many other endogenous hormonal signaling molecules, including virtually all steroid hormones that have been carefully tested, as well as thyroid, retinoid, leptin, some transcription factors, growth factors and other molecules not traditionally classified as hormones. One recent study even documents interference with chemical signaling between two symbiotic organisms, the bacterium Rhizobium and its leguminaceous host (Fox et al. 2001). The presumption now is that any chemically-mediated signaling system is vulnerable, in principle, to disruption by chemicals to which wildlife and humans are exposed to in their daily lives. Given the enormous potential for EDCs to interfere with gene expression, how many of the 80,000+ chemicals registered for commercial use have endocrine disrupting activity? The vast majority of chemicals have not been tested in even the most basic way. Far fewer have been tested for endocrine disrupting effects, particularly during embryonic development, the most vulnerable time in life. Altered gene expression during organismal development can induce dramatic changes in developmental outcomes, that is, the disruption is irreversible. Known effects of EDCs range from structural changes to functional deficits. For example, alterations in the production of hormone receptors in tissues through the alteration in the expression of genes for these receptors have been shown in experiments with laboratory animals, and these changes can then lead to altered responses to hormonal stimulation throughout the remainder of life. This can, in turn,lead to altered (increased or decreased) susceptibility to contamination with hormonal activity (Gupta 2000; Richter et al. 2000). Altered gene expression and cellular signaling subsequent to development can cause transient changes, termed activational responses, or particularly through carcinogenesis, permanent detrimental effects. For example, lifetime exposure to estrogen is the best predictor of breast cancer in women, and exposure to EDCs that are “environmental estrogens” could plausibly increase breast cancer risk. Thus, the impact of EDCs will vary depending upon a variety of factors, including when in the life-cycle of the organism exposure occurs, as well as the duration and amount of exposure. Until recently, the great importance of life stage, the very great vulnerability of the embryo, and the fact that consequences of fetal exposure could be entirely different from those seen from adult exposure had not been appreciated. Collectively, these new data from studies of EDCs are forcing a series of conceptual shifts that undermine long-held assumptions underlying toxicological studies and the applications of results from these studies to developing public health standards. Foremost among these is a challenge to the operating assumption concerning appropriate dose. Focusing on traditional toxicological endpoints, such as gene mutations, weight loss and death, toxicologists customarily worked at what now are viewed as very high doses, typically in the range of parts per million and parts per thousand levels. New data suggest that extremely low doses of EDCs (in the part per billion and even part per trillion range) can cause measurable and highly significant endocrine disruption. A growing array of studies is revealing changes in gene expression, including both gene suppression and gene activation, as a result of low-level exposure to EDCs. For example, recent work on arsenic, long-established to be toxic at high doses, has revealed that at part per billion levels, arsenic can interfere with glucocorticoid
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activation of genes involved in the control of metabolism, response to stress, immune fimction and the suppression of tumor formation (Kaltreider et al. 2001). A second important conceptual shift arises from consistent findings that during the life cycle of an organism, developmental stages are typically far more vulnerable to signal disruption than adult. stages. This is thought to occur for several reasons, including the absence of l l l y developed protective enzyme systems and higher metabolic rates. Most importantly, however, the events underway in development involve a series of organizational choices that are irreversible once the “choice” in development is determined. In sharp contrast, in adults, the processes at play can very often be reversed by removing the EDC, thus returning gene expression levels and organ functioning to normal; these transient effects are termed “activational” effects. One recent example documenting extraordinary differential sensitivity of adult versus developing life-stages was presented by Hayes et al. (2002), finding adverse effects in tadpoles at 1/30,000ththe lowest concentration of atrazine, a herbicide, found to produce adverse effects in adults. One clear implication of this focus on low level exposure during fetal and neonatal development is that levels of exposure that have been dismissed as “background” and thus “safe” can have deleterious effects. This had never been realized due to the absence of any studies using these low doses combined with virtually no studies of developmental effects at any dose level. Many laboratory studies now support the conclusion of high sensitivity of the embryo and neonate, as do some epidemiological data from human studies. For example, a series of studies of children born to Dutch mothers, exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dioxin through consumption of fish and other food in Dutch markets, have shown that low parts-per-billion concentrations of these contaminants impair cognitive (Koopman-Esseboom 1996) and immune system development (Weisglas-Kuperus 2000). One reported consequence of exposure is a shift in the pattern of play behavior in boys toward patterns more typical of girls (Vreugdenhil 2002). Toxicological experiments, particularly those used to develop regulatory standards of acceptable levels of exposure to environmental chemicals have been based upon the assumption that “the dose makes the poison”, which implies that high doses invariably cause more harm than lower doses. It has been a surprise to regulators to learn that for hormonally active chemicals, this assumption may not be valid. Endocrinologists and physicians have known for decades that very high doses of hormones and drugs can block rather than stimulate some responses, resulting in what is referred to as a non-monotonic dose-response relationship (effects initially increase and then decrease with increasing dose).
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Concentration (molar) Figure 2.: Proliferative response of MCF-7 cells to 17-$’ estradiol over 10 orders of magnitude. Responses in the ‘physiological range” are mediated by binding with the estrogen receptor. Those in the “toxicologicalrange” reflect cell death. Adaptedfvom Welshons et al. 2003. For example, recent work by Welshons et al. (2003), examined effects in response to estradiol exposure in a line of human breast cancer cells (Figure 2). Estradiol levels between 0.1 and 100 parts per trillion produced an increased growth response in breast cancer cells, because at these levels, an increase in exposure causes an increase in the number of estrogen receptors bound by estradiol, thus leading to increased gene activation. At exposure levels in the typical toxicological dose range (part per million range), further increases in the dose of estradiol began to produce cell death. This result is extremely important for regulatory toxicology, because the high level exposures in these experiments are analogous to those used for the prediction of risk posed by low doses, but the actual effects of low doses predicted to be safe have, until very recently, never been examined experimentally (vom Saal and Sheehan 1998). Changes in dose within this very high part per million dose range cannot reveal variations in receptor-mediated gene activation, since all receptors are occupied at doses which are millions of times lower. Hence, testing EDCs at only very high doses is likely to miss signal disruption events that can be expected to occur at much lower levels of exposure. Identification of low-dose effects that are different from those seen at high doses, the importance of timing of exposure, recognition of the unique effects that can be disrupted during development, and genetic variation in genetically-determined susceptibility, render the overly simplistic assumptions previously used in risk assessment invalid for many environmental chemicals. WILDLIFE AND LABORATORY STUDIES For many decades, we have been concerned with the effects of environmental contaminants on the health and persistence of wildlife populations. Prior to work over the last 10 to 15 years, the vast majority of these studies examined the lethal
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consequences of exposure, or they focused on the induction of cancer or major birth defects. Although these endpoints are still critical in the study of toxicology, a growing collection of studies examining diverse wildlife species demonstrates that additional adverse outcomes can be produced in wildlife as a result of exposure to environmental contaminants. A number of these abnormalities have been attributed to the disruption of endocrine signaling (see Colbom and Clement, 1992; Guillette and Crain, 2000). Below, we examine just a few examples of endocrine disruption in wildlife. Fish, Vitellogenesis and Sewage In the 199Os, reports were published documenting that male fish living below sewage outfalls in Europe, Great Britain, North American and Japan had elevated plasma concentrations of the yolk protein vitellogenin (see Sumpter and Jobling, 1995). Naturally, vitellogenin is synthesized in the liver of the female following stimulation by elevated plasma estrogens of ovarian origin. Males of many vertebrate classes, including fish, amphibians and reptiles, have the ability to synthesize vitellogenin if stimulated by estrogen, although this does not occur normally. Intensive chemical fractionation of sewage identified two major classes of compounds capable of acting as estrogens in male fish, these included the pharmaceutical estrogen, ethinyl estradiol, and the industrial chemicals, nonylphenol and octylphenol. Ethinyl estradiol is a common ingredient o f the human birth control pill and is excreted in the urine of females taking this pharmaceutical agent. Ethinyl estradiol has been identified in the surface and reclaimed sewage waters from all continents where such studies have been performed (Kolpin et al. 2002). Similarly, nonylphenol, an alkylphenolic chemical, is widely used in industrial applications as a surfactant and is commonly released into the environment. It is persistent in the ecosystem with very large concentrations found associated with sediments and organic matter in freshwater and estuarine regions. It has been shown to be weakly estrogenic in mammalian laboratory animals, but is a potent estrogen in many fish (White et al., 1994). Laboratory-based life-cycle testing with ecologically relevant concentrations has shown that both of these compounds have adverse effects on the reproductive potential of males and females, and they also alter sex determination in developing embryos (Tyler and Routledge 1998). These common pollutants have the potential to disrupt the health of individual animals and the persistence of populations; some populations have no males. It has also been suggested that endocrine disruption could be associated with the decline of commercial and sport fish populations. Alligators and Pesticides Alligators and crocodiles are long-lived top predator species inhabiting most subtropical and tropical wetlands. Studies begun in the late 1980s reported abnormalities in central and south Florida (USA) populations of the American alligator exposed to various contaminant mixtures associated with modem agriculture, such as insecticides, herbicides and fertilizers (Guillette et al. 2000). These abnormalities include altered plasma sex steroid profiles, gonadal, genital and immune tissue anatomy, and hepatic steroid metabolism (Guillette and Gunderson 200 1). Specifically, male alligators exposed in ovo (as embryos) to various pesticides, due to deposition in the eggs prior to being laid by the female, exhibit significantly reduced plasma testosterone concentrations, aberrant testicular morphology, and small penis size. Females from the
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same contaminated locations displayed significantly elevated plasma concentrations of estradiol as neonates but reduced concentrations as sub-adults. Sub-adult females also had elevated plasma concentrations of the potent androgen dehydrotestosterone. They also exhibit a high frequency of polyovular follicles, an ovarian abnormality associated with low fertility and high embryonic mortality. These contaminated populations have shown elevated embryonic mortality greater than 50%. Polyovular follicles are a documented outcome of exposure of women to the estrogenic drug diethylstilbestrol during fetal life exposed as fetuses due to their mothers taking this drug during pregnancy, and these exposed women also suffer a decrease in fertility. Populations displaying these abnormalities have elevated egg, tissue or serum concentrations of a wide range of organochlorine pesticides or their metabolites, heavy metals and other widely used agricultural chemicals, such as nitrates. Experimental exposure of developing alligator embryos to various organochlorine pesticides or their metabolites induces many of the abnormalities seen in wild populations, such as altered plasma hormone profiles and small penis size as well as altered sex determination (Matter et al. 1998). Concentrations required to induce these abnormalities were in the part per trillion to part per billion range, 100-1000 times lower in concentration than the reported levels in alligator eggs or serum. Recent studies of Mosquito fish from the same contaminated lakes indicate that the reported abnormalities are not limited to a single lake or species, as male Mosquito fish have reduced tissue concentrations of testosterone, lower sperm counts and altered reproductive behavior (Toft et al. 2003). Fish and Pulp Mill Effluent Many studies have documented the detrimental effects of pulp mill effluent on the environment over many decades. Classical ecotoxicology studies reported wide scale disruption of populations, including the local extinction of many exposed freshwater or estuarine fish and invertebrate populations. Although modifications in the processing of pulp mill effluent have occurred over time, abnormalities persist. Studies from several Canadian locations report altered hormone profiles in fish exposed to pulp mill effluent, including alterations in hypothalamic, gonadal and adrenal hormones (McMaster et al. 1996). Exposed fish displayed altered stress responses and altered reproductive performance. Masculinization of females has also been reported. For example, female Mosquito fish living below effluent outfalls from paper pulp mills develop a gonopodium, a modified anal fin found in males of this species and used to transfer sperm to the female for internal fertilization (Davis and Bortone, 1992). The gonopodium develops in the male following exposure to androgens, specifically testosterone. Masculinized females do reproduce but have lower production of offspring and greatly elevated levels of aromatase activity in their brain and ovary (Orlando et al. 2002). Aromatase is an enzyme that converts the hormone testosterone to estradiol, the principle estrogen in these females. These females thus have an impaired potential to produce this critical hormone that regulates reproduction.
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Fish. Feedlots and Pharmaceuticals Modem animal production techniques, in many countries, involve the use of potent hormones and antibiotics. Although there has been an on-going debate on the safety of the meat products produced from such practices, few concerns have been voiced concerning the possible ecological impacts of these practices. We have recently examined feral fish exposed to effluent released from animal feedlots, including urine and feces, into a natural river system. We observed that male fish exhibited many of the classical signs of androgen exposure, including reduced testicular mass, reduced plasma testosterone and altered head morphology (Orlando et al., submitted). With the extensive use of anabolic steroids in cattle production, the potential for wide scale disruption of fish reproduction is possible, since the presence of ethinyl estradiol in rivers after excretion by women and bacterial action in water treatment plants leads to endocrine disruption in fish. Experimental laboratory-based studies support our field observations, as low level exposure to the commonly used anabolic steroid trenbolone alters fish development and reproduction in a manner similar to that observed in the wild fish (Ankley et al. 2003). These and many more observations of wildlife demonstrate that global contamination of wildlife populations has dramatic effects on the health and reproductive potential of these populations. The phenotype we observe in individuals is produced by the environment acting on the genotype. The abnormalities we observe in wildlife are not due to classically held concepts of gene mutations. Instead, they represent alterations in the timing of gene expression and the level of gene expression. If exposure occurs during embryonic development, these alterations can be permanent (see Guillette et al. 1995). Wildlife has acted as sentinels for human health for centuries. An important issue is whether the abnormalities reported in wildlife provide a warning that human health and development are at risk. Studies with Laboratory Animals Numerous studies in laboratory animals have documented profound embryonic disruption by low level exposure to environmental chemicals including pesticides (herbicides, insecticides and fungicides), and those contained in a range of industrial products (e.g., phthalate additives in polyvinylchloride plastic and the monomer bisphenol A used in the manufacture of polycarbonate plastic) profoundly disrupt fetal development. Parmigiani and colleagues at the University of Parma administered the widely-used insecticide methoxychlor to pregnant mice. The offspring were examined for neurochemical changes in the dopaminergic system in the basal ganglia area of the brain. Neurons that use dopamine as a neurotransmitter (the dopaminergic neural system) are involved in the control of locomotor activity and exploration. The basal ganglia was studied because one of the major impacts of methoxychlor on behavior is to increase exploratory activity to novel stimuli (Parmigiani et al. 1998, Palanza et al. 2002). This is also the area of the brain where degeneration occurs in Parkinson’s disease, as well as associated changes in behavior. A change in behavior was associated, particularly in females, with a decrease in dopamine receptors in the basal ganglia. Males exposed to methoxychlor also showed an increase in territorial behavior, which is associated with aggressiveness. These findings show that permanent changes in brain function and behavior are associated with very low levels of exposure to this pesticide, levels
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previously considered to be completely safe (P. Palanza, F. Morellini and S. Parmigiani, unpublished observation). Since 1997, a large number of peer-reviewed journal articles have been published showing that bisphenol A causes harm in animals at levels to which the average human is exposed. Bisphenol A is another chemical that, similar to methoxychlor, has the ability to bind to estrogen receptors and initiate cellular responses similar to those caused by estradiol. However, bisphenol A was incorrectly initially thought to only be a very weak estrogen-mimicking chemical. Instead, recent experiments have shown that at “low doses” that had previously been predicted to be safe based on models, not data, bisphenol A has dramatic adverse effects. Recent findings include chromosomal damage in developing oocytes in mouse ovaries, and abnormalities in the entire reproductive system in male mice, including a decrease in testicular sperm production and a decrease in fertility. In addition, fetal exposure to bisphenol A increases the rate of postnatal growth and decreases the age at which females mature sexually (go through puberty). These females also have mammary gland abnormalities and appear pre-cancerous by the time the females reach young adulthood. Bisphenol A also causes abnormal brain development, and changes in brain function and behavior, similar to methoxychlor. ASSESSING RISKS POSED BY EDCS TO HUMAN HEALTH It is likely that EDCs pose a significant threat to human health that classical epidemiological methods may not have the sensitivity to detect. Human studies on EDCs, which fall under the broader heading of environmental epidemiology, share many features with studies of environmental exposures such as to radon or total suspended particulates, which are not endocrine disruptors. However, they differ from non-EDC studies in several important ways (study hypothesis, exposure(s), effect(s), model selection, analysis and interpretation) that make detection of effects more difficult. We will consider these points and then examine a recent study that circumvents at least some of these problems. What triggers an investigation between an EDC and a human health effect? Traditional (“classical”) epidemiological studies were often designed to investigate unusual patterns of human health outcomes. Perhaps the most dramatic of these was the investigation of diethylstilbestrol (DES) in response to a cluster of seven cases of a rare vaginal cancer (clear cell adenocarcinoma) in young women. Similarly, an awareness of increasing rates of lung cancer triggered the first studies of smoking and lung cancer. Some epidemiological studies of EDCs have similar origins. Indeed, DES itself is a quintessential EDC, and current research into possible EDC involvement in breast cancer causation and fertility impairment have been provoked by observations of human trends. Many epidemiological questions raised by EDCs have their origins, however, in observations of impacts on laboratory animals and wildlife. These include the possible role of EDCs in increases in hypospadias, the effects of phthalates on male fertility, and the impact of polybrominated diphenyl ethers on neurocognitive development. In each of these cases, and many more, pronounced laboratory and field effects provoke questions about human impacts based on animal observations. All else being equal, the ability of an epidemiological study to identify the cause of an adverse outcome decreases as the prevalence of the outcome and the number of causal
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factors increase. For example, the identification of DES as the cause of clear cell vaghal adenocarcinoma in young women was relatively easy because very few cases of this rare cancer had ever been documented in this age group, and no other cause had ever (before or since) been identified. Conversely, causes of breast cancer are notoriously hard to find not only because it is a complex, multifactorial disease but because of its extremely high lifetime incidence (one in eight women). The metaphor of signal detection may be helpful in clarifying this point; high background levels of a disease contribute to background “noise” (as do alternative causes, errors in exposure identification and diagnoses) and make detection of the “signal” (the association under investigation) difficult to identify. Epidemiology handles diseases of low incidence, and strong associations well, but multifactorial diseases of high incidence only poorly. Consider the following thought experiment (Figure 3). Imagine a population of 5,000 women with a significant but not unusual spontaneous miscarriage rate of lo%, normally distributed. In that hypothetical population one would expect 500 miscarriages, M2. In this experiment, expose 1% of the women to a contaminant that increases the risk of that abortion, on average by X-fold, with X increasing from 1 (no effect on risk) to a 10-fold increase. Elevation in risk would have to be more than nine-fold before the signal of exposure-induced miscarriage rose above background noise.
Elevation in risk (-fold) Figure 3.: The expected number of miscarriages in a population of 5000 women as a function of risk elevated by exposure to a hypothetical contaminant. See textfor parameters. A crucial feature of EDCs is their ‘‘stealth” nature. Several recent studies have demonstrated that the general population has been exposed to, and currently carries measurable levels of, tens to hundreds of EDCs (CDC 2003, Thornton et al. 2003). The subject has no knowledge of these exposures; so the classical tools of epidemiologists (questionnaires, vital records, occupational histories etc.) provide no information. These presuppose the subject’s (or physician’s or employer’s) knowledge of exposure. Instead, it is necessary to obtain biological measures of exposure (biomarkers). Biomarker studies require that subjects agree to provide a biological sample (e.g. blood, urine or saliva) and give permission for its use in such a study. Obtaining subjects willing to do this, Institutional Review Boards willing to approve these protocols, and
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funding for such studies is becoming increasingly challenging. An increasing number of studies are taking this approach; we describe a recent example below. But for many EDCs, the analytical chemistry that would permit body burden measurements has not yet been developed, and for many for which it has, the chemical analyses are very costly, limiting sample size and thus statistical power. Moreover, the rapid metabolic degradation of some compounds means that single exposure measurements, for example from cord blood at birth, may completely miss critical exposures during pregnancy. Whether distinguishing between exposure and non-exposure in cases and controls or estimating changes in risk as a function of increasing exposure, epidemiological studies traditionally assume monotonic dose response curves. Higher exposure levels are assumed to produce larger effects. Laboratory work with EDCs clearly shows, however, that non-monotonic curves are commonly found. The result of use of inappropriate models, such as those that assume monotonicity of dose response, and absence of low dose effects, will result in “false negatives”. Epidemiology regularly compares exposed and unexposed populations. Yet the global distribution of EDCs means that finding unexposed populations is virtually impossible. Classical epidemiological studies were designed primarily to examine isolated exposures, ignoring concurrent exposures or considering them as confounding factors to be treated as “nuisance variables.” This is inappropriate with EDCs, however, for two reasons. First, EDCs from similar and different chemical families can work through the same mechanism. They are thus substitutable. Unless the possibility of substitution is factored into the study by measuring multiple exposures and examining their joint risk, such mixtures will increase misclassification of exposure (an important source of conservative bias) and thus increase the likelihood of false negatives. When mixtures of EDCs have been studied they have been seen to interact, often in unpredictable ways, with subadditive, additive and even synergistic effects. It is difficult, if not impossible, to isolate exposure to a singe pesticide, phenol or phthalate. As the EWG-Mt. Sinai study showed (Thorntonn 2003), it is likely that all subjects are exposed to measurable amounts of large numbers of these chemicals, many of which act along common pathways. These factors pose a significant and currently unsolved challenge to epidemiology. Long time lags between exposure and effect, which may span decades or even generations as in the case of DES, will further complicate detection of impacts. For nonpersistent compounds, all traces of the parent compound and its metabolites will be likely to have disappeared. With persistent contaminants, degradation of the parent compound into different metabolites, some toxic, some not, and some working via different mechanisms (e.g., DDT is estrogenic while its metabolite DDE is antiandrogenic) will further complicate interpretation even in cases where the study has measured biomarkers of exposure. Aside from ecological studies, epidemiology is conducted at the individual level. Effects of classical exposures are usually binary outcomes in individuals, which are well defined and severe (cancer case vs. non-case, birth with limb reduction or not). However, wildlife data suggests that changes from EDC exposure at the level of the individual are often subtle and difficult to classify (reduced fertility, poor semen quality, more feminine play behavior, genital dysmorphology). The effect of such changes at the population level, however, can be profound. As discussed above, trends in mean values of several
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outcomes have been reported but other changes at the population level, which may be even more profound, are increases in population variance and an increasingly non-normal (non-Gaussian) population distribution. While EDCs manifestly present challenges to epidemiological studies, and are likely to have led to false negatives and underestimates of true risk, some progress is being made in developing approaches that acknowledge these pitfalls and employ methods explicitly designed to avoid them. One of us (Swan) has been involved in such a study, investigating reduced semen quality in relation to pesticide exposure. This study is somewhat unusual from an EDC perspective because it focuses on what appear to be adult-mediated impacts rather than developmental impacts. This avoids the problem of the long time lags noted above. A studv of semen gualitv in relation to Desticide exDosure After finding that fertile men from the general population of an agrarian area (Columbia, MO) had decreased semen quality (for example. only 58% of the number of moving sperm as men from Minneapolis, MN) (Swan 2003A), pesticide exposure was examined as a cause of poor semen quality (Swan 2003B). The authors measured urinary metabolites of eight non-persistent, current-use pesticides in two groups of men from mid-Missouri; men with all semen parameters (concentration, % normal morphology and % motile) below median value (cases) and men in whom all semen parameters were within normal limits (controls). Pesticide metabolite levels were particularly elevated in cases compared to controls for the herbicides alachlor and atrazine, and for the insecticide diazinon (2-isopropoxy-4-methy1-pyrimidino1, or IMPY) (p-values for Wilcoxon rank test = 0.0007, 0.012, and 0.0004, for alachlor, atrazine and IMPY, respectively). Men with higher levels of alachlor or IMPY were significantly more likely to be cases than men with low levels (OR=30.0, 16.7 for alachlor and IMPY, respectively), as were men with atrazine over the LOD (OR=l1.3). The number of pesticides found in the urine at elevated levels was significantly related to the risk of poor semen quality (being a case rather than a control). These associations were seen in the general population, who were not occupationally exposed. The three pesticides most strongly associated with semen quality are among the five that have been measured most frequently in drinking water sources in the mid-West. These are not removed by routine water treatment. Therefore, drinking water is the most plausible route of exposure. These findings suggest that adult exposure to several widely-used pesticides via drinking water is a likely cause of the reduced semen quality seen in fertile men from mid-Missouri. Subject responses to questions about home and occupational pesticide use were not related to semen quality, suggesting that the relevant pesticide exposure was unknown to the subject. Therefore, collection of urine samples and assays for pesticide metabolites in the subject’s urine using highly sensitive GCMS were required to document exposure to the low levels of pesticides that were related to semen quality. In addition, effects were seen at the level of the individual, with likely more profound effects at the population level. The average decrease in sperm concentration in fertile men living in mid-Missouri relative to men living in Minneapolis, MO is 40 million s p e d m l . While the median sperm concentration for Missouri men (54 milliodml) was within normal limits, the sperm count for about 40% of these men fell below 40 milliodml, the point at which fertility declines significantly (Bonde et al. 1998).
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SUMMARY
In this paper we have outlined evidence from a diversity of sources indicating that a variety of manmade compounds can interfere with sexual and brain development, resulting in reduced fertility, altered brain function and behaviour in wildlife, laboratory animals and humans. Four summary points emerge: Contaminants at low levels can interfere with gene expression. Wildlife, laboratory animal and human effects are strongly concordant. The available data are not consistent with several key assumptions traditionally used to guide regulatory science and regulations. Traditional epidemiology will have great difficulty establishing causation of effects of these chemicals in humans. IMPLICATIONS The concordance of animal and human data, where the latter are available, indicates that when human data are not available health standards should be guided by animal research on a precautionary basis. It will be decades, at best, before epidemiological science is capable of thoroughly documenting the health impacts of even a small number of the contaminants to which humans are exposed daily. Zichichi (1993) has pointed out that many decisions are made about technology without an adequate scientific basis on which to assess costs and benefits. Endocrine disruption clearly fits that model, with toxicogical data on risk emerging decades after exposures began. The regulatory system can and should serve public health more effectively. Many of the chemicals of concern were produced to improve human welfare and provide economic benefit (for example, to increase crop production or to protect food from metal in food cans). This new science, however, is now revealing many unexpected adverse consequences, resulting from the ability of very low levels of these compounds to interfere with gene activation. Most of the chemicals now implicated were subject to little, if any, rigorous testing. Many tested using criteria now known to miss important risks were found “safe” and allowed to enter the marketplace. Now we are discovering their “stealth” characteristics only long after widespread exposure has occurred. Because of their “stealth” nature, we are currently unprepared to detect the effects of EDCs or defend against them. Many are persistent; they cannot be removed; they are globally distributed through our atmosphere, our seas and wildlife. Others, while not persistent, should be treated as persistent because of their chronic and ubiquitous use. They act at a population level and many have the potential to (individually or cumulatively) affect future generations, for example by decreasing fertility, feminizing males or reducing intelligence. All these endpoints have been produced in the laboratory and many have been observed in wildlife. New data - which must be confirmed by further study - suggest that comparable changes are being produced in human populations as well. Precaution dictates that we cannot wait for “conclusive” evidence of harm to human populations to take action.
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Chemical corporations and government agencies charged with regulating chemicals in the environment (air, soil, water and food), assure the public that these chemicals are safe. Because of absence of data concerning risk (often confused with evidence of an absence of risk) and the use of conservative models no longer supported by recent data, the public remains ignorant of the risk potential of the vast majority of chemicals. The public is routinely informed that these chemicals have been tested, that there are studies demonstrating the absence of their risk, and that regulatory agencies adequately protect public health. Clearly significant changes are needed to bring current regulatory practices into conformity with new scientific information. We propose that testing for health effects at doses within the range of human exposure (currently not done) with respect to longlatency effects of developmental exposure throughout the lifespan (currently not done) be required prior to the introduction of any chemical intended for use in commerce.
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Toft, G., Edwards, T., Baatrup, E. and Guillette, L. J., Jr. (2003). Disturbed sexual characteristics in male mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) from a lake contaminated with endocrine disrupters. Environ. Health Perspec. 11 1,695-701.
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Weisglas-Kuperus, N., Patandin, S., Berbers, G.A.M., Sas, T.C.J., Mulder, P.G.H., Sauer, , and Hooijkaas, H. 2000. Immunologic Effects of Background Exposure to Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Dioxins in Dutch Preschool Children. Environmental Health Perspectives 108:1203-l207.
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Welshons, W.V., Thayer, K.A., Judy, B.M., Taylor, J.A., Curran, E.M. and vorn Saal, F.S. 2003. Large effects from small exposures. I. Mechanisms for endocrine disrupting chemicals with estrogenic activity. Environmental Health Perspectives 1 11:994-1006.
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4.
POLLUTION: LONG-TERM STEWARDSHIP OF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL
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CONTAINMENT OF LEGACY WASTES DURING STEWARDSHIP JAMES H. CLARKE Vanderbilt University, Nashville, USA LORNE G. EVERETT Stone and Webster Management Consultants, Inc., Santa Barbara, USA STEPHEN J. KOWALL Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho Falls, USA LEGACY WASTE ISSUES Past waste management practices at industrial and governmental sites have resulted in the need to manage very large volumes of contaminated soil and buried wastes. In many cases, however, treatment technologies to destroy the hazardous and radioactive constituents are simply not available, nor are they expected for metals and pseudo-metals. The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that it will not be possible to restore the environment, at over 100 of their former nuclear weapons production facilities, to a degree that would allow unrestricted access. Consequently, containment and control technologies will be employed to isolate the contaminants and prevent migration to potential receptors. The time during which the residual contaminants could pose a threat to human health and the environment may be very long (100s to 1000s of years). The use of engineered barriers for long term isolation in the United States is complicated by several factors, not the least of which are: (1) design standards are prescriptive and embodied in the Federal environmental regulations; alternative designs must be shown to be "equivalent", and (2) our performance experience with the currently favored designs, while good and encouraging for the most part, is still only a few decades at best. The need for effective long-term isolation poses several challenges. The robustness of the containment system itself is, of course, of concern. However, it is unrealistic to expect even the very best approaches to endure for long times without maintenance and, eventually, intervention. Consequently, long-term system performance also requires effective approaches to long-term monitoring, maintenance and institutional controls. A total system approach is needed that integrates monitoring and other requirements with the engineered system itself to ensure long-term performance. THE EVOLUTION OF CONTAINMENT TECHNOLOGY AND DESIGN APPROACHES Containment technologies have historically been used to provide in-situ isolation of existing contaminated soils and buried wastes through the use of surface barriers (covers) and subsurface bamers (walls and floors) and to provide engineered containment (landfills, disposal cells) for the isolation of waste materials and contaminated media that are placed into these systems. In-situ installation of subsurface barriers poses additional challenges over those seen in new facilities that are built with the subsurface barriers in
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1 2 6 place before the waste materials are received. Also engineered landfills and disposal cells can be designed to accommodate leachate collection and monitoring, whereas these features must be retrofitted into in-situ containment systems. Land based surface contamination containment and control systems have evolved from rather simple systems employing, in many cases, a modest soil cover, designed to prevent rain water from contacting the waste and transporting the mobile constituents to deeper soils and groundwater, to very sophisticated multi-function systems featuring the use of synthetic as well as natural materials. The major system performance indicator has been, and most probably will continue to be, the effective hydraulic conductivity of the primary barrier - the function of which is to prevent the passage of water into the contaminated material that is being isolated. This barrier may be a major component of a cover or cap that is placed over the material, or a subsurface barrier that may be needed to manage the potential contact of ground water with the contaminated materials and wastes. As experience was gained concerning system performance and as knowledge increased with respect to the major natural processes affecting performance, cover system designs became increasingly complex. Synthetic materials believed to be durable, under expected environmental conditions, for at least a few hundred years were added, sometimes in place of, at other times in addition to, and more recently in combination with the natural soil barrier (e.g. the geosynthetic clay liner). Cover systems were modified to incorporate additional layers above the primary barrier to prevent erosion and biointrusion and to provide drainage of any infiltrating rainwater away from the primary barrier. Further design considerations were also needed to minimize the effects of freeze-thaw cycles, seismic events and bamerlwaste and groundwater incompatibility. Consequently, the engineered cover that is needed to comply with the prescriptive regulatory design requirements has evolved from a relatively simple cap, consisting of a few centimeters of compacted natural soils, into a very expensive, multi-layer, multicomponent system, several meters high, requiring extensive construction quality assurance and quality control measures. Subsurface barriers have evolved, and knowledge and experience have been gained. THE NEED TO FORECAST AND ACCOMMODATE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Implicit in the historical approach to engineered barrier design has been the belief that we can design and construct an isolation system that is robust and protective over long periods of time with minimal monitoring and maintenance requirements. The systems that have evolved, however, require that natural processes and environmental changes be resisted in order for the system to continue to perform effectively. While this is certainly manageable over relatively short time horizons (10s of years), longer time horizons (100s to 1000s of years) pose major challenges from the standpoint of not only available resources but in fact our commitment to ensure that the needed monitoring and maintenance continue. Recently there has been a great deal of interest in the use of alternative designs that work with (as opposed to against) natural processes and that incorporate our best forecasts of future environmental conditions, e.g. climate change and ecological
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succession. Ideally, we could construct a containment system that would require no maintenance and that would perform well even after being totally overtaken by its surroundings (i.e. design for the equilibrium state). Alternative cover systems that show great promise, especially in arid and semienvironments, feature the use of vegetation together with natural soils in a system that removes potentially infiltrating rain water through evapo-transpiration during the growing season and stores rain water above the waste (for future removal) during the non growing seasons. A capillary bamer design can also be combined with the evapo-transpiration approach. Performance data for both of these approaches (and a third as well - the anisotrophic design) are very promising and these systems can be provided at significantly reduced costs compared to the prescriptive design required by the regulations. More humid environments continue to pose a challenge to alternative designs. CONTAINMENT SYSTEM MONITORING APPROACHES Historically, containment system performance verification approaches have also been regulatory-driven and have focused almost exclusively on groundwater monitoring. While this approach might be sufficiently protective for relatively small containment systems close to the water table, groundwater monitoring alone lacks the ability to provide an early warning of a potential release. Rather, information is gained only after system failure has occurred. At this time there are no federal environmental requirements for in-system monitoring of the cover nor for monitoring of the vadose zone below the containment system. Both in-system and vadose zone monitoring may have a great deal of merit, however, and should be considered. While federal regulations are nonexistent, some states have extended monitoring requirements beyond ground water monitoring. Several approaches and technologies are available to provide both monitoring of the cover (moisture content, subsidence) and the underlying vadose zone (various types of lysimeters). In-system monitors for covers are being evaluated in a few cases and have recently been retrofitted into one existing system at the DOE facility in Fernald, Ohio. The lack of a regulatory driver, however, has clearly been an important deterrent to the use of these other monitoring approaches, especially at private sector sites. A SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAF' FOR LONG-TERM STEWARDSHIP OF LEGACY WASTE SITES Recently, the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, with support from the Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management, developed a "Science and Technology Roadmap for Long-Term Stewardship (S&T Roadmap)". Participants in the project included scientists and engineers, with a diverse array of expertise and experience in contaminated site investigation and remediation, representing government, industry and academia. An overarching conclusion was that long-term stewardship (LTS) is best provided through a system approach. The major system components are the engineered containment subsystem employed to provide
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contamination isolation and control, monitoring of the containment subsystem and the environment, communication within and beyond the LTS system and management of the LTS system. From a containment and monitoring perspective, this approach identified the following needed capabilities and capability enhancements: SYSTEM FUNCTION - CONTAINMENT OF RESIDUAL HAZARDS Key Capability 1. Site Conceptualization and Modeling Tools to improve geologic-hydrologic-biological-chemical-thermal (GHBCT) conceptual modeling for long term forecasting; provide tools for long-term forecasting of environmental conditions relevant to predicted end-states; provide tools for modeling the community at risk; conceptualize and predict containment/control system performance, including potential failure modes and levels of failure. Key Capability
- Improved Contamination Containment and Control Systems
engineer the GHBCT environment to limit contaminant toxicity and mobility; design, build and operate alternative (next generation) containment and control systems. SYSTEM FUNCTION - MONITOR THE SITE AND THE LTS SYSTEM Key Capability - Sensors and Sensor Systems for Site Monitoring Identify contaminant monitoring needs for all media of potential transport or exposure and fill sensor technology gaps where monitoring solutions are needed; Establish site-specific parameters for environmental exposure routes and for both occupational (on-site) and non-occupational (community at risk) human routes of exposure; Improve sensors and sensor systems for monitoring active and passive safety systems. The roadmap project identified capabilities and capability enhancements that are necessary for the communication and management system functions as well. SUMMARY Our current challenges are: To build upon the work that has been done to contain residual contamination that must be isolated and left in place (at least for now), with the recognition that there is a need to balance the desire for a permanent system with low maintenance
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needs and the realization that this may not be possible for very long time horizons, and To integrate monitoring capabilities with containment system design in a sitespecific environment so that we can decrease our need to rely on ground water monitoring as a means of containment system performance verification.
We are encouraged by the short-term performance that we are seeing with the alternative cover systems that are being demonstrated and installed. Ideally, we will move increasingly to engineered barrier systems that benefit from improved forecasting of those future environmental conditions critical to long-term performance and that better accommodate natural processes and environmental change. REFERENCES 1. Long-Term Institutional Management of US. Department of Energy Legacy
Waste Sites, National Research Council, National Academy Press, 2000. 2. Long-Term Stewardship, Science and Technology Roadmap (Draft), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, DOE/ID- 10926, October, 2002.
3. Performance and VeriJcation of Barriers Through Prediction and Monitoring, C. Chien, A.Gatchett and G. Chamberlain (eds), in press.
4. Handbook of Vadose Zone Characterization & Monitoring, L. G. Wilson, L. G. Everett, and S. J. Cullen, Lewis Publishers, 1995.
PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION IN THE LONG-TERM MANAGEMENT OF U.S. NUCLEAR WASTE SITES WILLIAM R. FREUDENBURG Dehlsen Professor of Environment and Society, Environmental Studies Program University of California, Santa Barbara, USA It is now clear to most observers that energetic public involvement efforts will need to be an integral component in the long-term management of the many sites in the U.S. that are now expected to require extremely long periods of institutional management, often extending centuries or millennia into the future. Not only are such time periods almost unprecedented in the history of fallible human institutions, but the difficulties of such efforts in the U.S. will be further amplified by the number, size and diversity of the contaminated sites, as well as by the enduring suspicions created by past failures. Although it is not clear whether or not these difficulties can be overcome, it is clear that they must be. Fortunately, recent findings in the scientific literature suggest that, if the challenges are taken quite seriously, well-designed and active collaboration with citizens who live near the contaminated sites may improve not just the sites’ relationships with socalled “stakeholders,” but also their near- and long-term management of risks to human health and the environment. In a remark that a recent report from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (2000) called “one of the most prescient comments of the nuclear age,“ Alvin Weinberg (1972) noted, “We nuclear people have made a Faustian bargain with society. On the one hand, we offer, in the catalytic nuclear burner, an inexhaustible source of energy... but the price that we demand of society for this magical energy source is both a vigilance and a longevity of our social institutions that we are quite unaccustomed to.” As is now clear, Weinberg’s ”vigilance and longevity” will be needed not just in a vacuum, but in the real world, and a real world where there is much less deference to institutions than there was at the time of his original remarks. Perhaps partly for this reason, it is now relatively common to hear that one of the requirements for long-term institutional management of nuclear wastes and contaminated nuclear sites will be ongoing and active programs of public involvement. Such observations are certainly accurate, as far as they go, but experience already shows that the reality of institutional management is likely to prove more complex than is being foreseen by many, even today. Rather than attempting to summarize all of these complexities, this paper will focus on some of the key challenges that are particularly noteworthy in the U.S. context, emphasizing the main lessons and opportunities that have been identified in the independent analyses that have been done to date. THE U S . CONTEXT Perhaps the most important issue to be understood when considering the management of nuclear materials and sites in the U.S. is the issue of magnitude. In
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comparison with most nations, the U.S. is a huge and diverse nation, and it has a huge and diverse range of sites. In terms of geographic area, just the 48 contiguous U.S. States stretch across a distance that is more than 3000 miles, or roughly 5000 kilometers, from coast to coast, and the 49th State of Alaska is itself large enough to double that distance. In terms of the existing magnitude of the problem, it needs to be recognized that, not only were nuclear weapons research and production activities carried out at an urgent pace -largely during an era when environmental safeguards were not as strong as they are today, and during times when the relevant officials were far more casual or optimistic about their ability to keep environmental problems within "acceptable" levels - but also that the activities were funded by Congress. Congressional funding wound up meaning that, inevitably, the political calculus of Senators and members of Congress was superimposed on top of technical and military considerations, leading to a proliferation of sites and to patterns of control and sequencing that future archeologists are likely to find utterly baffling. With one Senator after another insisting that "logic" (or at least political logic) required the next major facility to be built in a new state or Congressional district, the U.S. ultimately found itself with a number, range and diversity of contaminated sites that sometimes proves baffling even for present-day observers. To be more specific, according to one of the recent official counts - one that was used by the National Academy of SciencesINational Research Council (NAS/NRC), as taken from the U.S. Department of Energy, or DOE (the agency that actually held responsibility for most nuclear weapons researcWproduction activities) - there are 144 "waste sites" in the DOE weapons complex, and of these 144 sites, 109 at least have contamination problems that simply cannot be "cleaned up" to levels that permit normal public access, with currently known technologies, even with relatively high levels of funding. In the U.S., accordingly, there are over 100 sites in the weapons complex alone that will require precisely the kinds of extremely long-term "vigilance and longevity" noted by Weinberg. Each of those sites is to some degree unique, and this is all the more the case for the humans who live nearby. One of my own precepts, developed fkom having studied any number of human communities, is that when you have met one community, you have only met one community. In this context, there is thus a need to emphasize one of the most commonly offered of all warnings about public involvement programs, namely, that even though we often refer to "involving the public" (singular), there is a need to recognize that we will be dealing with "publics" (multiple), even at any one site, and all the more so across sites. More broadly, it also needs to be recognized that any overall observations being offered in this short paper are necessarily simplified ones. With these warnings in mind, however, it is possible to offer two main observations about the types of pressure that are likely to be represented by "public involvement" at many, if not most, of the sites in the United States. The first overall observation is that it is actually quite rare to encounter the specific form of pressure that is most often feared by engineers of my acquaintance, namely the pressure to make a site "perfectly safe." Most of the exceptions to this statement, moreover, come from the sites where existing contamination problems are sufficiently modest, and sufficiently contained, so that it might be at least in principle feasible to dig
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up virtually all of the contaminated materials and ship them “someplace else”. At most of the other contaminated sites in the U.S. that I have visited, including all of the seriously contaminated ones, most of the nearby citizens who have been paying attention to the contamination problems are acutely aware of the magnitude of the problem (and of the likely costs of remediation), and many of them are just as bothered by the extremely high costs involved as are the best engineers. The second overall observation is that, as a useful simplification, public involvement at any given site is likely to include (at least) two main groups, and two main forms of pressure. One group will be focused largely on the ways in which they, and their region, can profit from ongoing activities at the site, particularly over the relatively short term (i.e., the next 2-20 years); the other will have greater concerns about how the site can be managed safely, minimizing risks the human health and the environment, over the medium to long-term (i.e., the next 10-10,000years). To continue with the pattern of useful simplifications, the first group tends to be relatively small at most sites, but to have had a long history of working profitably with DOE and the federal government, and to be relatively well-connected politically -sometimes including connections to the very Senators and members of Congress who are still given credit for having brought the site to that area andor for assuring that the site would not be overlooked in Congressional budget bills. Although this is by no means always the case, members of this first group are often key actors in lobbying for “reindustrialization”or the reuse of former weapons-making facilities for other purposes, particularly at certain key sites, such as Oak Ridge in Tennessee. The second group, on the other hand, tends to be far larger, but perhaps understandably, also to be far more suspicious of DOE - and in another pattern that may also be understandable, the members of the two groups have often learned to be highly suspicious of one another, as well. This fact leads directly back to the earlier point about involving “the publics” (plural). As DOE and other U.S. agencies are likely to continue to learn in the future, it is quite unwise to assume that responding to the interests of any one group (especially one that is relatively small and unrepresentative) can safely be confused with responding to the broader public (publics), even at any given site. MAIN “LESSONS” TO DATE Based on independent analyses by groups such as the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (see for example NASNRC 2000; Dunlap et al. 1993) there are four main lessons that are worthy of attention in the context of this paper. The first is that maintaining effective public involvement with the second and larger group - those persons who do not have a long history of having worked profitably with DOE and with contaminated sites - is likely to be the larger and more important challenge for public involvement programs. The second is that success is likely to require more than simply “good manners,” or what an observer in another controversy called “sending a gorilla to charm school.” Even if a better-behaved “gorilla” made it more pleasant for him “to be in the same room,” as he noted, “the past behavior of the beast” made him wonder whether the improved manners reflected a genuine change, or merely something more cosmetic (see Freudenburg and Gramling 1984). The third lesson, by
133 contrast, is that the best way to maintain effective (and constructive) public involvement with the second and larger group is by dealing seriously with their concerns. The fourth and final lesson, fortunately, is that this very effort - that is, the. effort to deal seriously with the concerns of the broader public(s) - may well offer not just important challenges, but also important opportunities. Those opportunities are likely to prove important, in part because experience to date has been more than a little humbling. Despite millions of pages of official documents now in existence, a surprisingly high fraction of what we learned about contamination at sites now undergoing remediation has come from sources that are neither official nor documents, but rather from oral histories - often from low-level workers who simply happen to remember just what was buried where. This fact is scarcely comforting; human memories are fallible even under the best circumstances, and experience also shows that some of the people who might have been able to remember, at one time, may no longer be able to remember, and may no longer even be alive today. At the same time, however, this fact is helpful in another respect: it helps alert us to the importance of emphasizing new ways of combining "institutional instruments" including humans as well as hardware - that are not so sensitive to changing and sometimes politically derived incentives, such as the faithful reporting of the party line. Thus, just as it is important to develop new forms of (physical) instruments that can reliably indicate conditions and problems over very long periods of time, it is also important to search for institutional arrangements that offer greater promise of reliable and robust performance over the very long term. Based on the limited experience available to date (see for example the discussions in Chess et al. 1992; Clarke 1992; Shrader-Frechette 1993; NASINRC 2000), some of the most promising possibilities for improving organizational performance - not just so-called "risk communication," but actual risk management - are those that derive from what the technical literature sometimes calls increased "institutional permeability." In simpler terms, there appears to be great potential in taking greater steps to incorporate into management institutions some of the kinds of people who have often been excluded from those institutions in the past, specifically including those having strong interests in increased safety. (One of the prototypical examples involves local mothers of small children who live in the area, both now and in the future.) Just as it is important to do better at "designing with nature," in short, it is important to do better at "designing with human nature." In short, developing smarter ways of working with those who have often been critics of past management practices may well prove to be one of the most promising ways of improving our own performance in the future. REFERENCES 1.
Chess, Caron, A. Saville, Michal Tamuz et al. 1992. "The Organizational Links Between Risk Communication and Risk Managment: The Case of Sybron Chemicals Inc." Risk Analysis 12 (3): 431-38.
2.
Clarke, Lee 1992. "The Disqualification Heuristic: When do Organizations Misperceive Risk?" Presented at annual meeting of American Sociological
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Association, Pittsburgh, August.
3.
Dunlap, Riley E., Michael E. Kraft and Eugene A. Rosa. 1993. Public Reactions to Nuclear Waste: Citizens' Views of Repository Siting, Durham, NC: Duke Univ. Press.
4.
Freudenburg, William R. and Robert Gramling. 1994. Oil in Troubled Waters: Perceptions, Politics, and the Battle over Offshore Oil. Albany: State University of New York ( S U N Y ) Press.
5.
National Research Council. 2000. Long-Term Institutional Management of US. Department of Energy Legacy Waste Sites. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, National Academy of Sciences.
6.
Shrader-Frechette, Kristin. 1993. "Risk Methodology and Institutional Bias." Research in Social Problems and Public Policy 5 : 207-223.
A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE ON STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT IN NUCLEAR WASTE MANAGEMENT ALLAN G. DUNCAN NIREX Waste Management Advisory Committee Oxon, UK. THE NUCLEAR LEGACY IN EUROPE The countries of Europe include those that were involved in the earliest developments of nuclear technology in the 1940s and 1950s. Those countries now have a wide range of redundant plants and equipment associated originally with the development of nuclear power and, in some cases, with the development of nuclear weapons. They also have accumulations of the radioactive waste arising from operation and decommissioning of such plants and equipment. Originally, much of this waste was simply stored, and in situations that paid little heed to environmental issues or, indeed, to the need for its eventual disposal. In the case of nuclear weapons development in the immediate post-World War I1 years, of course, the contemporary priority was national defence and not environmental protection, which has been a major consideration for many years now. The ownership of this particular element of the legacy usually lies with national governments. These countries and some of the other countries in Europe have, since then, introduced commercial nuclear power programmes. These programmes have been subject to tight environmental regulation from the start but, nevertheless, have also resulted in the creation of wastes for which there is no current disposal route, other than for relatively low level wastes. This element of the nuclear legacy generally belongs to the relevant utilities but is progressively, throughout Europe, being transferred to national organisations created for its safe, long-term management. There are also countries that have no nuclear power programmes and whose radioactive wastes arise only from medical, industrial and research activities. It will be understood, therefore, that the extent and perception of the nuclear legacy issue is not uniform throughout Europe and, indeed, that different perceptions across national borders have become a most important issue in dealing with this legacy. EARLY ATTEMPTS TO DEAL WITH THE LEGACY With the progressive introduction of commercial nuclear power through the 1960s and 197Os, the safe management and disposal of nuclear waste became a major issue to the extent that in 1976 in the UK, for example, a Royal Commission for Environmental Protection recommended that no major new nuclear power programme should be undertaken before the matter of waste management and disposal was solved. Similar issues were being raised throughout the nuclear countries in Europe and, in the mid1970s, the European Commission initiated a major R&D programme on nuclear waste treatment and disposal, which continues to this day. At about the same time, individual countries were also planning national programmes for nuclear waste disposal.
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1 3 6 Typically, these programmes were technically driven with little involvement of those outside the nuclear industry, government or the regulatory authorities. By 1991 the international technical community was confident enough to formulate an opinion, published by the Nuclear Energy Agency of OECD, which: “Confirmed that safety assessment methods are available today to evaluate adequately the potential long-term radiological impacts of a carefully designed radioactive waste disposal system on humans and the environment” and, “Considered that appropriate use of safety assessment methods, coupled with sufficient information from proposed sites, can provide the technical basis to decide whether specific disposal systems would offer society a satisfactory level of safety for both current and future generations.” However, by about the same time, it was obvious that this technical confidence was not even close to bringing about the siting, construction or operation of disposal facilities for nuclear wastes other than low-level wastes. National programmes were facing opposition similar to that which had effectively blocked disposal of certain European radioactive wastes to abyssal trenches in the Atlantic Ocean some ten years earlier. Not only was there public opposition to proposals for development of solid waste disposal facilities; the international community, by way of the OSPAR Commission, was also exerting an influence on waste management at source, through decisions about treatment of liquid discharges to sea for example. Thus, it eventually became clear that no effective progress towards waste disposal was going to be possible except by way of meaningful involvement of the non-technical stakeholders and the consensus of a substantial majority. THE LEGAL BACKGROUND All countries in Europe have some form of control over land-use planning. Member States of the European Union (EU), specifically, have been bound since 1988 by a Directive on Environmental Impact Assessment that requires assessment of the consequences of specific projects likely to have significant environmental effects. These include “installations solely designed for the permanent storage or final disposal of radioactive waste”. Assessment entails examination of factors such as impact on amenities, landscape, noise, transport, general nuisance and effects of accidents as well as the more specific issues of waste management and effects of pollution. Also, and most importantly, it requires involvement of the public. Notably however, it addresses specific project proposals after they have been formulated. In this context, it is an example of the “decide, announce and defend” philosophy that has been so demonstrably unsuccessful in the siting and construction of nuclear waste disposal facilities, large conventional waste incinerators and other such controversial projects. It is significant, now, that another Directive on Strategic Environmental Assessment will come into force in 2004. This Directive, on the other hand, addresses the need for environmental assessment of plans and programmes, that is to say before any specific project proposal is formulated. It also
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delivers EU obligations under the Espoo and Aarhus conventions by requiring meaningful involvement of neighbouring countries as well as the domestic public. But what is “meaningful involvement”? And who are “the public”? STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONSENSUS With some admirable exceptions such as Finland and Sweden, where good agreement and progress on waste disposal has been achieved, it is only in recent years that most European countries have begun to come to terms, in the nuclear waste field, with the implications of the need for meaningful involvement of all interested parties, the so-called “stakeholders”, including the public. Substantial effort has been devoted to developing an understanding of how to involve stakeholders at an early stage and how to achieve consensus before major decisions or commitments are made. This work has been carried out at both national and international level. At national level, the utilities and regulatory bodies in Europe have developed arrangements for consulting stakeholders. Some utilities have formal stakeholder groups that are invited to advise on waste management issues before formulation of long-term waste management plans. Similar or equivalent arrangements have been made by some of the national organisations created specifically to assume responsibility for nuclear waste management. More significantly perhaps, some national governments have paused and taken a step back from the previously technically driven approach in order to consider how best to involve all interested parties and to arrive at a consensus on the way forward. France, for example, passed a law in 1991 that requires a period of information gathering and analysis before national decisions are made in 2006. The Federal Ministry of Environment in Germany has created a working group to develop a new procedure for selecting a waste repository site before restarting its waste disposal programme. In the UK, this step is even more fundamental. The Government is appointing a new independent body to review all the options for long-term management of waste, including long-term storage as well as various options for disposal. It is committed to engaging the public and stakeholder groups in debate and to advising Government on a way forward that is technically sound and that will command substantial support. Its first major task is likely to be establishing a framework for the debate and identifying the relevant stakeholders. In the international context, the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD has provided a particularly helpful forum for debate and has published the results of various workshops on the subject, often using the well-developed and apparently successful arrangements in Finland and Sweden as examples of good practice. Without going into details of the arrangements in these countries, the discussions around them, together with lessons from experience in other countries, have resulted in the identification of some key features of the process of “meaningful involvement” and establishing a stakeholder consensus. These are broadly as follows:
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The process must be open, transparent, fair and truly participatory. It should involve step-wise decision making, with clear defmition of the steps or stages, and the steps should be reversible in the light of new knowledge, so far as practicable. It should be clearly understood what is expected at each step, and how facts, expert opinions and value judgements will interact in decision making. The responsibilities of each stakeholder for each step should be defined and accepted by all. The procedures should ensure that all stakeholders, including the public, can participate effectively in regard to validating claims for trust, legitimacy and authenticity. Against this background it was also noted that important factors in achieving success in Finland and Sweden include: Support and effective involvement from national governments. Commitment to national self-sufficiency in waste management and no importation of foreign waste. Early involvement of local communitieshaving a veto power. Early involvement of competent, unbiased and respected regulatory bodies. Well-structured dialogue between operators, regulators, political decisionmakers and the general public. Absence of military waste from the inventory to be managed. Decoupling of consideration of waste management from consideration of policy on future use of nuclear power, or nuclear weapons. These features are now widely recognised in Europe as self-evident, and the focus is moving towards identification of the relevant stakeholders and to understanding their various points of view and how to reflect them in a consensus. THE STAKEHOLDERS AND THEIR POINTS OF VIEW The relevant stakeholders may vary from country to country but, in general, they include operators, regulators, politicians and government policy-makers, the general public, and neighbouring countries that might be affected by waste management arrangements. The roles and points of view of policy-makers, operators and regulators are relatively clear and straightforward given their respective responsibilities for converting political intent into policy and legislation, for implementing it and for securing compliance with it, together with individual and collective responsibility for providing accurate, unbiased information to the public. The “public” or, more specifically, “the public concerned” is effectively defined in the Aarhus Convention as “the public affected, or likely to be affected by, or having an interest in the environmental decision making. For the purpose of this definition, NonGovernmental Organisations (NGOs) promoting environmental protection and meeting any requirements under national law shall be deemed to have an interest.” This is helpful
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in focusing arrangements for stakeholder involvement and debate and for understanding their points of view. The public “affected” will certainly include the people in whose communities the waste is currently being processed or stored and who, as a result of recent events, will be increasingly aware of the hazards of having waste accumulations on or above ground in their neighbourhood. The public “likely to be affected” will include those whose communities may become the location of future waste processing, storage or disposal facilities. In both cases, the points of view are likely to be a relatively transparent mix of legitimate concerns about safety, environmental impact, employment and educational opportunities, property values, infrastructure development, etc. The public “having an interest” is harder to identify and it is not clear what points of view may emerge here. The NGOs, whether meeting requirements under national law or not, are likely to have substantial influence. Their campaigning material is generally convenient and attractive to the press and broadcast media. Hence, it has a substantial influence on the voting public and, therefore, on political attitudes. Their involvement in attempts to solve issues of waste management may, in some cases, be more complex. Those NGOs committed to phasing out nuclear power, or nuclear weapons, are well aware that failure to resolve the waste issue will further their cause, and this point of view will need to be recognised and understood. It is probably nalve, therefore, to think that waste management can be decoupled from consideration of future nuclear policies. In this context, it may be of interest to note that a recent survey of public opinion in Europe, the Eurobarometer survey of energy issues, showed that in respect of the features of energy sources 72% considered protection of the environment to be top priority. And in regard to which sources would be best for the environment 67% thought that the new renewable sources would be best, and 3% thought that nuclear fission would be best. Equally, neighbouring countries may have complex points of view that go beyond simply ensuring protection of their populations to within internationally accepted radiological standards. These may relate quite legitimately to the question of “spatial equity”. Why should non-nuclear, neighbouring countries be affected in any way by radioactivity from nuclear programmes from which they derive no benefit, regardless of the level of radiological impact? This is a very important political question and must be addressed in the context of the overall decision-making process. For most practical purposes it may be assumed that politicians will reflect the views of the voting public and the need to maintain cordial relations with neighbouring countries, but their commitment to the process and to implementing the outcome must be perceived as being whole-hearted and sincere.
CONCLUSION With some notable exceptions where good progress has already been made, European countries are only now learning how to design and implement processes for achieving consensus on how to deal with the nuclear legacy. The real challenge for the future would appear to be one of framing the debate between stakeholders with a wide variety of points of view and motives and managing it to a successful outcome.
HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
DR. BALAMURUGAN GURUSAMY The Institution of Engineers Malaysia, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
INTRODUCTION One of the greatest environmental challenges facing countries in Southeast Asia (SEA) is the problem of burgeoning hazardous wastes brought about by the fast pace of industrial expansion. Over the past two decades, the main target of industrial output has changed from domestic consumption to export markets. While an industry-driven economy creates higher income opportunities for some people, it also has an undeniable impact on the region’s environment and its natural resources. Industrialization has introduced into the region, as it has elsewhere, the use of hazardous substances as raw materials and the production of hazardous wastes. Hazardous wastes in many SEA countries are accumulating at a frightening pace and many of those wastes are compounds that biospheric systems cannot absorb and recycle. This paper summarizes the state of affairs regarding hazardous waste in SEA. It describes the background to the circumstances underlying the waste management problems, what has been done in terms of control and management and suggests what can be done to accomplish the goals of sustainable development. SOUTHEAST ASIA Southeast Asia (SEA) consists of ten counties, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The combined population of the SEA counties was over 522 million in year 2000 (Table 1) and is projected to reach 800 million in the year 2050 [l]. The 10 countries have a diversity of cultures, geographies, economies and lifestyles. Industrialization has, over the past few years, helped to alleviate poverty and improve the quality of life in the region. The engineering of water supply networks, dams, roads, houses and townships and the expansion of the manufacturing sector have all increased the level of comfort and economic affluence in most countries. Most SEA countries have, without doubt, benefited immensely from the industrialization process which has transformed sluggish rural economies into bustling ones. Table 1 :Profile of Southeast Asian Countries 1 Landarea(km2) 1 Population (Gillion) Brunei 5765 0.34 181035 11 Cambodia 1919317 212 Indonesia 236800 5.3 Laos 329758 23.3 Malaysia 676575 49 Myanmar Philippines 300000 78.4 448 4 Singapore 513115 62.3 Thailand 77.5 Vietnam 331700
1 Country
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I I
Per capita G D P ~1 ~ 2001 (USD) 12245 270 69 1 330 3696 151 914 20659 1831 416
I
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At the same time, industrial programs and projects have also brought about social and environmental problems. The environmental situation throughout SEA, and Asia in general, is deteriorating. We are witnessing an accelerating loss of biodiversity, land degradation, floods and water shortages. Many rivers in the SEA region are polluted. In Malaysia, for example, of the 120 rivers basin monitored by the Department of Environment in 2000, over 55% were categorized as polluted or slightly polluted [2]. The marine water quality in Malaysia has also suffered - more than half the 993 samples collected in the year 2000 exceed the national standards in terms of total suspended solids, oil and grease and E Coli [2].
Table 2 :Environmental Trends in the Asia Pacific Region 1990 - 1995
environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia ollution environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia environment south asia south eas asia asia Source : modified from [ 11 Management of wastes, particularly hazardous wastes, is among the greatest environmental challenges in SEA. The lack of resources and technology, limited know-how, insufficient regulation and enforcement have all contributed to the problem. HAZARDOUS WASTE SITUATION IN SOUTH EAST ASIA It is estimated that SEA countries currently generate about 5 millions tomes of hazardous wastes per year with Thailand and Indonesia leading the production. Data on waste generation is generally inaccurate and most governments are hard pressed to keep track of all industries and the types and quantities of wastes that they generate. In some countries, it is thought that for every one hazardous waste generator registered with the Government, there could be ten others not registered - thus the official wastes numbers and quantities could be gross underestimates. Countries like Singapore and Malaysia have made great strides in containing the hazardous wastes problem. Singapore has the most comprehensive hazardous waste management program in the region while Malaysia has achieved considerable progress. Despite the progress, incidences of illegal dumping are common. Countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar generate little hazardous waste as the pace of industrialization is relatively slow. There are no hazardous waste management programs in these
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countries and the main environmental challenges are the management of municipal solid waste, clean water and controlling the loss of biodiversity. In Indonesia, according to preliminary estimates by the BAF'EDAL (Environmental Impact Management Agency), the total amount of dangerous, hazardous and toxic wastes was approximately 450,000 tonnes in 1990 and is expected to reach 1 million tonnes by year 2000. Thailand is estimated to have generated some 2.8 millions tonnes of hazardous waste in 2000. Malaysia generated some 400,000 tonnes of hazardous wastes in 2000. It was estimated that about 280,000 tonnes of hazardous wastes were generated in the Philippines in 2000 [ 5 ] . The main sources of hazardous wastes are from the industrial sector. Industries such as electroplating, textile, tanning, chemical and metal processing often generate the most hazardous wastes. In Malaysia, for example, 33% of the hazardous wastes were from the metal industry, 24% from the chemical industry, 10% from electronics industry and the rest from a variety of industries. In Vietnam, it is estimated that 89% of all hazardous waste comes from the industrial sector and rest from hospitals and other sources. Most medium and small-scale industries generally do not treat hazardous wastes but instead discharge wastes directly into the drainage systems and nearby water bodies, discard waste together with municipal solid waste or simply bury hazardous wastes on site. Even wastes from hospitals are collected along with municipal solid wastes and transported to dumpsites where they are buried [3]. In Myanmar, the main sources of hazardous wastes include dyeing, printing and finishing processes of the textile and photoengraving industries. With the construction of waste treatment facilities in some countries and the introduction of tighter regulations in others, there is now a more concerted effort by the industries to minimize and recover wastes. In Malaysia, for example, since 1998 when the central facility for hazardous waste treatment became operational, industries found themselves with no more excuses not to send their wastes. This actually resulted in many industries beginning waste minimization and waste recovery and the number of waste recovery facilities has increased significantly. LEGISLATION Most SEA countries have, in the last two decades, promulgated legislation to control and manage hazardous wastes (Table 3). The major goal of the legislation is to enable the government to control and manage the generation, transport, reuse, recovery and disposal of hazardous wastes.
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Table 3.: Hazardous Waste Regulations in SEA Countries Country Malaysia
Basic legislation
Environmental Quality Act 1974 Environmental Quality (Scheduled Wastes) Regulations 1989 Vietnam Law on Environmental Protection/ Decree 175 Regulation on Hazardous Waste Management 1999 Philippines Toxic Substances and Hazardous and Nuclear Wastes Control Act of 1990 Thailand
Indonesia-
Singapore
Responsible Authority Department of Environment Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
Department of Environment and Natural Resources Enhancement and Conservation of the Ministry of Natural National Environmental Quality Act, 1992 Resources and Hazardous Substances Act 1992 Environment Treatment of Waste or Disused Substances 1997 Environmental Management Act 1997 Office of the State Government Regulations Concerning Minister for the Hazardous and Toxic Waste Management, Environment. 1994 Environmental Public Health (Toxic National Environment Agency Industrial Wastes) Regulations
The Vietnamese Government, for example, promulgated Regulation on Hazardous Waste Management in 1999, specifying treatment and disposal methods for hazardous wastes. The Regulation includes a definition of hazardous waste, responsibilities of relevant ministries and agencies, responsibilities of its generator, a certification system for entities hauling, treating and disposing of it, a manifest system under which to haul it, and emergency measures. It specifies detailed classifications of hazardous wastes, treatment standards, and treatment and disposal methods for waste in each classification. In Vietnam, these wastes are defined on the basis of the concentration of a hazardous component in waste, the place where waste is generated (e.g., metal pickling facilities), or the property specific to waste (e.g., explosive substances). In Thailand, the Hazardous Substances Act 1992 stipulates that hazardous waste must be stored in sealed and safe containers, and must be strictly separated from other types of waste. It is prescribed that the actual requirements regarding treatment methods and treatment standards for hazardous waste are to be notified under the Act by the Ministry of Industry. In 1997, however, new hazardous waste regulations were issued as Notification of the Ministry of Industry No. 6 under the provisions of the 1992 Factory Act. Current hazardous waste regulations are therefore based on this Notification of the MOI No. 6, 1997. The new notification does not introduce any major changes to the categories of hazardous waste, but it substantially increases the range of substances subject to regulation. Entitled “Treatment of Waste or Disused Substances,” Notification of the MOI No. 6, 1997 first of all prohibits any factory owner who possesses solid waste or unusable materials, in the form and with the characteristics described in the
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notification, from moving that waste out of the factory site except for the purpose of detoxification, treatment, disposal, or landfill in the prescribed manner. A detailed list of substances and treatment methods are laid down. Under these provisions, factory owners are obliged either to treat hazardous waste themselves, following the methods prescribed in the notification, or to contract out the treatment in compliance with the regulations. Notification No. 6, 1997 also sets out the particulars of hazardous waste treatments, and the standard forms of the required reports. In total, nearly 1,000 different substances are classified as hazardous waste. Legislation regarding scheduled wastes in Malaysia is basically set forth in three regulations and orders: Environmental Quality (Scheduled Wastes) Regulations 1989, Environmental Quality (Scheduled Wastes Treatment and Disposal Facilities) Order 1989, and Environmental Quality (Scheduled Wastes Treatment and Disposal Facilities) Regulations 1989. The term “scheduled wastes”, as used in Malaysia, refers to categories of wastes ranging from hazardous wastes to toxic substances. There are currently 107 categories of industrial wastes listed as scheduled wastes, including 28 types defined by their structure and composition rather than by their source, and 30 types that can be identified by source, such as sludge generated by wastewater treatment. The regulations on scheduled wastes do not prescribe any permissible limits in terms of discharge volume or concentration of contaminants. This means that even if a factory generates only a very slight amount of scheduled waste, final disposal in accordance with the laws and regulations is still required. The regulations stipulate that scheduled wastes can only be finally disposed of at “prescribed premises” approved by the Director General of the DOE, and the waste generator is required to store the waste if no prescribed premise exists. Indonesia, as a response to its ratification of the Basel Convention, enacted the Regulation Concerning Hazardous and Toxic Waste Management (No. 19, 1994). This marked the first implementation of regulations on hazardous and toxic waste in Indonesia. Together with this, five Decrees of Head of BAPEDAL (Decree of Head of Environmental Management Impact Agency, No. 1 to 5 , 1995) were prepared showing the details for the storage, collection, treatment and disposal procedures. The Regulation prescribes the duty of management of companies which discharge hazardous and toxic waste, the procedures for collection, storage, transport and treatment of hazardous and toxic waste, and the disciplinary measures for violators. It also provides details of specific substances that come under the term of hazardous and toxic substances. For transporting hazardous and toxic waste from discharging companies to treatment companies, a Hazardous and Toxic Waste Manifest must be prepared in a given format. Furthermore, companies that treat hazardous and toxic waste must set up treatment facilities that satisfy given conditions, and implement environmental impact assessment and environmental monitoring. The import of hazardous and toxic waste is prohibited. If exporting such waste, approval is required from both the Indonesian government and the government of the receiving country. Singapore probably has the most comprehensive hazardous waste management program in the region. The collection, recycling, treatment and disposal of hazardous wastes are controlled under the Environmental Public Health Act and the Environmental Public Health (Toxic Industrial Wastes) regulations (TIWR). Industrial wastes controlled under the TIWR are listed in the Schedule of the Regulations as waste streams from specific industrial activities, wastes with specified toxic components and as specific categories of wastes. Singapore acceded to the Basel Convention in 1996 and in 1998, enacted the “The Hazardous Waste (Control of Export, Import and Transit Act” to strengthen the control on export, import and transit
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of hazardous wastes in accordance to the principles and provisions of the Base1 Convention.
HAZARDOUS WASTE PROBLEMS The main problems pertaining to the safe treatment and disposal of hazardous wastes in SEA can be categorized as follows : The lack of adequate treatmentldisposal facilities The high costs of treatment Inadequate enforcement capacity Lack of incentives to recover/rninimizewastes The lack of adequate treatment/disuosal facilities Most SEA countries have limited or no facilities to treat and dispose of hazardous wastes in a safe and environment-friendly manner. Only Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia have centralized facilities to treat hazardous wastes. Other countries have planned for these facilities but due to lack of funds, these facilities have not yet been built. In Malaysia, the Environmental Quality (Scheduled Wastes) Regulations 1989 prescribes that hazardous wastes can only be finally disposed of at prescribed facilities. However, until 1997, or for around a decade after the regulations came into force, no prescribed final disposal facilities existed in Malaysia. Throughout this time, most industries were forced to store scheduled wastes on-site, and the majority of companies were faced with ever-growing stacks of wastes. The final disposal plant run by Kualiti Alam, a private company, became partially operational at the end of 1997 and started full operation in June 1998. The plant is relatively modem with facilities for physical and chemical treatment, incineration and landfilling. The main problem now is transportation because wastes from all over the country have to be brought here, involving distances up to 500 km since it is the only plant in the country. Thailand, at present, has five central facilities that can properly treat hazardous waste. The first two were constructed by the Ministry of Industry and are operated and managed by GENCO, a joint public-private sector company with partial equity investment from the MOI. One of these facilities is the Bang Khun Thian Hazardous Waste Treatment Plant, located in the southwest of Bangkok. It began operating in 1988 and has a processing capacity of 1,000 cubic meters per day of wastewater containing hazardous substances from textile and electroplating factories, plus 50 tons of solid hazardous waste per day. The other treatment facility, located in Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate in Rayong Province, began operation in 1997. This facility has stabilizing equipment, equipment for converting waste into fuel, and a landfill. It has the capacity to treat 70,000 tons of hazardous waste annually. All these facilities are still inadequate to cope with the approximately 1.6 million tons of hazardous waste generated in Thailand every year. To solve the problem, the government has proposed that several more facilities be built nationwide but all these projects were met with opposition from people living near the proposed sites, and some of the projects have already been shelved [4]. Indonesia, a country of 220 million people, has only one central hazardous waste treatment facility located in Bogor, central Java and built in 1994. The plant processes most of the hazardous wastes from the industrialized West Java and the main sources of wastes are from the chemical, textile and metal-finishing industries.
146 Facilities include waste stabilization and a secure landfill. One treatment facility is grossly inadequate even for the island of Java. Wastes from all other islands in Indonesia remain stored on-site or illegally disposed. Although the law in Vietnam requires hazardous wastes to be treated prior to disposal, there is neither a treatment facility nor a final disposal site for hazardous wastes. A site has already been secured for a waste incinerator and hazardous waste disposal site within the premises of the municipal landfill site at Nam Son, 50km north from the city center of Hanoi. The construction has not started, as fimding is not yet available. In Vietnam, hazardous wastes can be disposed of through a waste disposal contractor for a fee. However, these wastes seem to be dumped at a landfill disposal site together with general wastes. In order to prevent these wastes from causing any problem in the future, some companies store hazardous wastes within their own premises. They intend to store these wastes that way until the Vietnamese Government provides appropriate systems of legislation and treatment facilities. In the Philippines, the Government is looking for private investors to build the country’s first integrated hazardous waste treatment facility. However, the perceived poor compliance to the existing legislation is holding back potential investors. A quote from the Trade Union Congress states “how would an investor put his money into these facilities knowing that he has to compete with rivers, creeks, ravines and secret dumpsites as disposal sites for hazardous wastes”. High cost of treatment The high cost of treatment is seen as a major barrier towards proper disposal of wastes in almost all SEA countries. Long accustomed to simply dumping their wastes alongside with municipal wastes, most industries are reluctant to pay to have their industrial waste treated. In Malaysia, Kualiti Alam is the only company carrying out integrated treatment of scheduled wastes. In 1995 the government awarded the company a 15-year exclusive right to conduct the scheduled wastes final disposal operation in Malaysia. Since it started operations and until today, there have been grouses amongst the industry of the high treatment charges - often accusing the Kualiti Alam of using its monopoly to charge high rates. The rates that Kualiti Alam charges range from US$ 100/tonne for landfilling to US$ 750honne for incineration. These rates are higher than those charged even in some developed countries. In Indonesia, the charges for the hazardous waste treatment are US$ 150 per tonne for landfilling and US$ 200 for stabilization prior to landfilling - these rates are deemed too expensive by most Indonesian companies. Due to these perceived high costs of sending their wastes to the central waste treatment facility, industries would rather keep on storing their wastes on site or seek to dispose them illegally. Inadeauate enforcement capacity Inadequate enforcement of regulations remains a major barrier to proper disposal of hazardous wastes in most SEA countries. The relatively youthful environmental consciousness in this region means that the government agencies dedicated to environmental protection and management are also new. Consequently, these agencies face challenges in asserting their competence and enforcing legislation and are very often inadequately funded. Almost all the enforcement agencies are understaffed. For example, the Environmental Management Bureau in Philippines has about 800 personnel compared to the country’s population of close to 80 million. In a study carried out by JICA [5], it was noted that since the passage of the hazardous
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waste regulations in 1990 until 1999, the hazardous waste management section within the bureau received no budget allocation. In this respect Malaysia fares slightly better. For a country of 23 million people, the Department of Environment has over 600 personnel and recently the Government has approved an additional 600 posts for the department. Even then, 1200 personnel for the entire country are too little and the department is hard pressed to visit each factory even once in a year. With an increase in penalties for hazardous wastes offences (fines up to US$ 120,000 are possible), there has been an overall improvement in the compliance level amongst the industries. Similarly, in Vietnam, the environmental enforcement is weak. The Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment has limited capacity to enforce the law and, even when the law is enforced, the penalties are too low and inadequate as a deterrent, which results in very few companies complying with the law. For instance, under the Regulation on Fines for Violation of Standards on Transportation and Treatment of Waste and Wastewater, establishments that fail to treat waste or wastewater can be fined between $9 - $45 per incident, an amount deemed too low to be of consequence [6]. On the whole, enforcement capacity is poor in all SEA countries (Singapore is a probable exception). The enforcement personnel are often stretched thin, with small teams having to cover the entire country. While some countries have in recent years significantly increased penalties for violation, the penalties in most other countries remain puny and do not act as deterrent since it is cheaper to pay the fine than to treat the wastes. Lack of incentives to recover / minimize waste There are a number of barriers that hinder the recovery and minimization of wastes in SEA. Industry and government have typically addressed these and other industrial pollution concerns with the “end-of-pipe” approach, which involves the construction of waste treatment facilities. However, this is an expensive operation that does not completely eliminate the waste. Furthermore, the generation of waste implies a loss of resources, therefore a loss of production opportunity and profitability. A significant barrier is the cost of purchasing, maintaining and operating waste minimization equipment. Other economic barriers include the lack of a market for recycled or reusable material and the lack of pollution control regulations and their enforcement. Lack of awareness about waste recovery potential and technologies also hinder active waste recovery and minimization. There are two types of physical barrier to the implementation of waste recovery and minimization. The first one is the problem of having insufficient quantities of waste to justify internal use or external collection. This barrier is particularly significant for small industrial firms that generate low volumes of wastes - firms that dominate the industrial scene in SEA. Another physical barrier can arise from the lack of sufficient storage space to accumulate wastes for collection. Again, this tends to be a more significant problem for small firms. In recent years, there has been a steady rise in the number of privately run,offsite waste recovery facilities in SEA. Given the high costs of waste treatment and increasingly stringent regulations, more and more waste generators are turning to offsite waste recovery facilities as a better means to solve their waste problems and in many cases actually derive some additional income by selling their wastes.
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THE WAY FORWARD Many of the problems regarding hazardous waste management in SEA are similar to those experienced in many other parts of the world, especially in developing economies. While countries like Singapore have achieved a very high standard of hazardous waste management, the others are still struggling, albeit at various degrees. Malaysia has done relatively well - having stringent regulations, and good treatment and waste recovery facilities. Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam have taken steps in the right direction by enacting regulations and initiating the establishment of integrated waste treatment facilities. Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar have more fundamental challenges of providing food and clean water to their population and hazardous waste management is not likely to be high on the countries’ agenda. As Southeast Asia strive towards achieving sustainable development, initiatives that could be taken with regards to hazardous waste management include: Capacity building. The technical capability and level of skills of professional and semi-professionals involved in the waste management sector must be enhanced considerably. Training is needed in various aspects such as waste treatment technologies, waste minimization, cleaner production, health and safety issues, and enforcement and prosecution procedures. Sharing of experience amongst countries in the region is also vital. The institutional and legal frameworks for the management of hazardous waste need to be strengthened. Regulations need to be made more robust and better coordination amongst regulatory agencies is needed to optimize the scarce resources. 0 There is a need for more innovative economic instruments to cajole industries to minimize, recover and treat their hazardous wastes adequately. Regulations alone do not seem to be doing the job very well. SEA countries need to provide greater support for the growth of waste recovery facilities (as opposed to waste treatment) as these facilities utilize waste materials and reduce the overall costs of the country’s waste management. Data collection must be improved. One very important resource in a hazardous waste management program is information - about who is generating wastes, what quantities and types are being generated, and where it is going. Again, sharing of experience and data amongst the countries in the region is important. REFERENCES
[ 13 United Nations Environment Program. Second ASEAN State ofthe Environment Report 2000. Bangkok. 2001 [ 2 ] Department of Environment Malaysia. Malaysia Environmental Qualig Report 2000, Kuala Lumpur, 2001. [3] IUCN. (1998) Environmental Management Issues and Concerns in Vietnam: An Appraisal. The World Conservation Union, Hanoi.
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[4] Eamsakulrat, P., Patmasiriwat, D. & Huidobro, P. (1994) Hazardous waste management in Thailand, TDRI Quarterly Review, 9(3), 7-14.
[ 5 ] JICA (2002) The study of hazardous waste management in the Philippines. Japan International Cooperation Agency.
[6] Vui, P. (1998) Prevention of Environmental Pollution in Industrial Activities. National Environment Agency; Hanoi.
RESPONDING TO FERMI’S WARNING: JAPANESE APPROACH TO DEALING WITH RADIOACTIVE WASTE PROBLEMS TOM10 KAWATA Chief Senior Scientist, Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC) Ibaraki, Japan ABSTRACT
In spite of the early warning given by Enrico Fermi, the problems,of growing accumulation of radioactivity produced by the utilization of nuclear energy have remained unsolved. This paper briefly describes the historical background and the present status of Japan’s nuclear energy program. After providing a bird’s eye view of global-scale radioactivity problems, the paper describes the Japanese approach to taming radioactive waste problems including that of high-level radioactive waste. FERMI’S WARNING
In one of the meetings of the New Piles Committee in the Manhattan project years, Enrico Fermi was speculating about the future of nuclear energy, and expressed his concerns as follows’: “It is not clear that thepublic will accept an energy source thatproduces this much radioactivity and that can be subject to diversion of material for bombs.” Sixty years later, nuclear energy is producing some 16 % of the world’s electricity supply, and yet we are not quite successful in giving final solutions to these two fundamental warnings given by Fermi. Recent withdrawal of North Korea from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) vividly indicated that Fermi’s first concern was still hard to resolve. Solving the radioactive waste problems, especially that of high-level radioactive waste, is a prerequisite for continued utilization of nuclear energy, but so far, none of the countries operating nuclear power plants have succeeded in completely settling these problems despite all their efforts over many decades. In addition, some countries that committed to the development of nuclear arms are now facing a very heavy load of dealing with the resultant large volume of waste and considerable environmental contamination. NAKASONE SET ON THE START OF JAPAN’S NUCLEAR ENERGY PROGRAM WITH A BUDGET OF 235 MILLION YENS For the Japanese, the first encounter with ‘atomic energy’ was, without doubt, the two atomic bombs dropped over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. It was natural that these two overwhelming events caused an “atomic trauma” for post-war Japanese, and all matters related to “atom” except in pure physics became a kind of taboo even in academia. Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” speech in December 1953 followed by the first Geneva Conference in AugustBeptember 1955 ignited the boost of worldwide euphoria for nuclear energy. Even though preliminary discussion on the necessity of nuclear energy research had begun to emerge in a small scholar’s group of the Science Council of Japan (SCJ), many were still hesitant or cautious to be involved in the matter whose independency from military application was thought to be so difficult to achieve. It was a group of young politicians that triggered the actual start of the nuclear energy program in Japan. A 35 year-old congressman, Hiroyasu Nakasone, a future prime minister in the mid 198Os, proposed all of a sudden a starter budget for nuclear energy development in the amount of 235 million yen to the Diet in March 1954. The number 235 coincided with the mass number of a fissionable
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uranium isotope and was good to symbolize the inauguration of Japan’s nuclear energy program. Soon, Nakasone was paid a visit by the eminent professor Kaya, chairman of the SCJ at that time, who wished to protest. After an hour of discussion, he managed to persuade Kaya to agree with him, still with certain reluctance, on the necessity for the nation to commit to the nuclear energy program as soon as possible. It was in such a climate that the Atomic Energy Basic Law was enacted in December 1955. Article 2 of the Basic Law prescribes Japan’s fundamental policy as follows: “The research, development and utilization of atomic energy shall be limited to peaceful purposes, aimed at ensuring safety and performed independently under democratic management, the results therefrom shall be made public to contribute to international cooperation ”, With this legal renunciation of nuclear armament, the Japanese nuclear energy program has been and continues to be strictly limited to civil applications. JAPANESE NUCLEAR ENERGY PROGRAM TODAY Lacking any meaningful indigenous uranium resources, Japan has pursued a so-called closed fuel cycle policy from the early days, and has committed to every stage of the entire cycle at either the developmental or the industrial level. At present, 52 nuclear power plants (NPPs) are in operation throughout the country and produce more than one third of nation’s electricity. Uranium to feed these NPPs is purchased from foreign vendors, and enriched by both foreign and domestic enrichment service companies. Three domestic companies undertake fuel fabrication. From the operation of 52 NPPs, slightly more than 900 tons of spent fuel arise annually. Up to now, about 1,000 tons have been reprocessed in the pilot-scale Tokai Reprocessing Plant (TRP) since the commencement of operations in 1977. More than 7,000 tons have been transported to and are being reprocessed at La Hague in France and Sellafield in the UK. Japan Nuclear Fuel Limited (JNFL) is constructing the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) with a design throughput of 800 t-U/y. The construction is approaching its final stage aimed at commissioning in July 2005, and the cold chemical check-out test is now in progress. High-level liquid waste generated by reprocessing is being solidified into stable glass form, sealed in stainless steel canisters, and stored until final disposal. More than 600 canisters shipped back from European reprocessors are now stored in the facility built adjacent to the RRP. About 130 domestically produced canisters are being stored at the facility attached to the TRP. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC) is continuing research and development on a fast breeder reactor and associated fuel cycle system aiming at ultimate improvement of uranium utilization efficiency and to minimize proliferation risks and the waste burden. The Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) is leading, among other various basic researches, a fusion technology development program. Because of the wide scope of Japan’s nuclear activities, a broad spectrum of radioactive waste has been arising in spite of the absence of military-related activities. So far, there is no notable environmental deterioration caused by man-made radioactivity in Japan, partly because of the very cautious approach to radioactive waste management, and partly because of the somewhat delayed start of ground disposal of low-level radioactive waste which eventuated well with the avoidance of disposal under premature safety standards.
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GLOBAL PICTURE OF MAN-MADE RADIOACTIVITY PROBLEMS 'Tfyou know the enemy and know yourself; your victory will not stand in doubt, i f you know Heaven and know Earth, you may make your victory complete9! -Sun Tzu, The art of war Before describing the Japanese approach to dealing with radioactive waste problems, it would be worthwhile to look at a global picture of man-made radioactivity problems. Concerns on the global risks of artificial radioactivity from continued utilization of nuclear energy will be categorized in the following two fundamental questions: 1. What will be the effect of global dispersion of long-lived radionuclides released from continued operation of NPPs and fuel cycle facilities? 2. How can we deal with the large and growing inventory of radioactive waste? In regard to the first question, the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) estimated the maximum annual radiation dose &om the global dispersion of major long-lived radionuclides under the assum tion that the current level of nuclear energy utilization will continue far into the future! A major fraction of radionuclide release into the environment is attributed to the operation of reprocessing plants. Table 1 shows the estimated doses compared with the effects from other sources. This comparison suggests that, so long as proper safety measures at individual facilities or sites are maintained, the world average exposure due to continued release of long-lived radionuclides from nuclear energy utilization is negligibly small. In contrast, the world average of annual exposure from medical examination and treatment is now as high as 0.4 mSv. Regarding the second question, the comparison shown in Table 2 will help us to picture this problem from a global-scale view. In Table 2, the total inventory of radioactivity in the waste produced by nuclear power generation in the world is compared with the total amount of natural radioactivity contained in the continental portion of the earth's crust3. In 2001, the world electricity generation was 2544 TWh, or 290 GWa. If we assume 8.8 x 10l2 Bq/GWa as a production rate of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) in nuclear power reactors, the global production of LLW in 2001 amounts to 2.6 x l O I 5 Bq, which exactly matches the amount of natural radioactivity contained in a 1 km3 block of soil.
Table 1. Population exposure from worldwide releases of artificial radioactivity. Annual dose, mSv
Sources Maximum estimate of radiation dose due to continued utilization
I
14
C (half life: 5,739 y) *'Kr (10.8 y) 3 H (12.3 y) + 129 I ( 1 . 6 ~ 1 y) 0~ of nuclear energy Atmospheric nuclear explosion Peak radiation dose (1963) Radiation dose in 2000 tests Chemobyl accident Peak radiation dose (1986) Radiation dose in 2000 World average radiation dose from natural background
0.0001 0.000005 0.15 0.005 0.4 0.002 2.4
I
153 about 230,000 tons of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). If reprocessed, the activity of fission products and residual actinides corresponding to this amount of spent fuel is about lo2' Bq after 30 years cooling, and will decrease to 1.3 x 10l8 Bq after 1000 years. One can see in Table 2 that the activity after 30 years cooling is in the order of 0.01 % of natural radioactivity present in the continental crust, and this fraction will decrease by three orders of magnitude in 1000 years. It is widely accepted that the disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW), either in the form of vitrified waste after reprocessing or in the form of spent fuel itself, would be best achieved by the burial in deep underground repositories. In most cases, it is anticipated that the radionuclides in HLW would not begin to migrate into biosphere until after 1000 years owing to the protection by the so-called multi-barrier system. Assuming that an area of 100 m2 is necessary for the disposal of HLW corresponding to 1 ton of spent fuel, the area required for the disposal of whole HLW accumulated by 2000 is calculated to be 23 km'. From Table 2, the natural activity contained in 1 km thick soil layer with 23 km2 area is easily calculated to be 6 x 10l6Bq. The activity of 1.3 x 10" Bq for the whole HLW after 1000 years is, therefore, about 20 times larger than the natural radioactivity contained in a soil block that covers the repository area. As a crude comparison, one can recall that, in such places as Kerala in India, Guarapari in Brazil and Ramsar in Iran, the natural background radiation is significantly higher than the world average, typically by a factor of 10 to more than 100, and yet people live for many generations with no deteriorated health or genetic effects4. The increase of the radioactivity inventory by a factor of 20 in the deep underground chambers of a HLW repository area would by no means lead to any noticeable increase of background radiation in the vicinity. Table 2: Activity of natural radionuclides in the continental crust and total activity of wastes from nuclear power generation in the world (Bq).
I K-40
Content in continental crust (1.7 x l O I 9 tons) 7.3 block of soil 1 !a3 LLW from NPPs in 2001
HLW accumulated by the end of 2000
8.4
Th-232 chain
U-238 chain
Total
7.8
loz3
5.7
8.6 x
1 0 ' ~ 8.1
1014
9.2
1014
2.6
10'~
2.6
1015
1 x 1O2l (after 30 ears) 1.3 x 10' J (after 1000 Years)
JAPAN'S APPROACH TO TAMING RADIOACTIVE WASTE PROBLEMS In Japan, radioactive waste is categorized into two basic types: HLW and LLW. HLW is high-level liquid waste generated from spent fuel reprocessing or its vitrified form. All others are generally regarded as LLW and further categorized into several subcategories primarily based on their origin and nature. At present, shallow-land disposal of LLW is being made only for "reactor waste", which is generated from the normal operation and maintenance of NPPs. The aerial view of the Rokkasho LLW Disposal Center is shown in Figure 1. The reactor waste is generally composed of activated materials and most of the radioisotopes involved tend to decay in relatively
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short periods of time. Therefore, an institutional control is applied for this type of disposal facilities with three decreasing control levels and times which extend over 300 to 400 years. Beyond this control period, the population dose is assured to be lower than 10 pSv/y in my conceivable events, and the site is allowed to be released without any restrictions.
environment south asia south environment south asia south environment south asia south
A similar concept has been applied for the disposal of LLW with relatively higher activity that is expected to be produced in the course of decommissioning of retired NPPs. In this case, however, the burial pit or silo is designated to be placed underground deeper than 50 m from the surface so that the possibility of the intrusion based on usual human practice is practically eliminated. For other types of LLW such as transuranic low-level waste, efforts to establish regulations and standards for disposal are still under way. A SOCIETAL EXPERIMENT A VOLUNTARY AND STEPWISE APPROACH FOR SITING HLW REPOSITORY Gandalf: For even the very wise cannot see all ends” - J. R. R. Tolkien, The Lord of the Rings -
“......
Solving the problems on radioactive waste, especially on HLW, is not merely a technical or industrial task but also a very societal and political task which has to deal with wide spread public fear of radioactivity and uncertainties associated with the time range that extends well beyond our life span or even beyond the span of recorded human history. Following scientific research on geological disposal of HLW lead by JNC for over a quarter of century, the Specified Radioactive Waste Final Disposal Act was legislated in June 2000. This act institutionalized the fundamental scheme of HLW geological disposal together with a designated funding system in Japan. Based on this act, the Nuclear Waste Management Organization in Japan (NUMO) was established as an entity to implement final disposal of HLW. NUMO is responsible for site selection, construction, operation, and closure of the underground repository where some 40,000 vitrified HLW canisters are expected to be disposed of’. The concept of geological disposal in Japan is similar to that in many other countries, being based on a multi-barrier system which combines the natural geological environment with engineered barriers as shown in Figure 2. Considering the complexity of Japan’s geology, an engineered barrier system (EBS) with sufficient margins in its isolation functions to comply with a wide range of geological environments was developed. The major role of the overall barrier function of the disposal system is borne by the near-field, or the EBS and a limited volume of the surrounding host rock, while the remainder of the geosphere serves to reinforce and complement the performance of the EBS. Though Japan is in fact located in a
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tectonically active zone, historical studies on geological phenomena in the Quaternary revealed that both volcanic activities and active fault movements had occurred repeatedly in distinctly limited regions and there had been little change in these locations for more than a million years. Such studies indicate the existence of geological environments, which are stable enough to host an underground repository, and can provide favorable conditions for EBS performance and for the retardation of radionuclide migration in the surrounding rock during a time period in the order of hundreds of thousand years. Both crystalline and sedimentaryrocks are considered to be candidate rock media for hosting an underground repository. The HLW disposal program is a challenging enterprise both from technical and societal aspects as mentioned earlier, and a three-stage site selection process is employed to ensure that the decision process is flexible and transparent to the public. The first step of this process is the selection of several Preliminary Investigation Areas (PIA) where surface-basedgeological investigations including borehole drillings are to be conducted to evaluate site suitability and to select the areas for detailed investigation in the next step. In order to reach the attention of municipalities and invite them to voluntarily participate in the PIA selectionprocess, NUMO has prepared an educational information package and distributed it to all of over 3,200 municipalities in Japan. As part of the public outreach program, open symposia on HLW disposal program were held by the Government at 11 major cities, and by NUMO at 31 smaller cities located throughout the country during the period of 18 months beginning in mid-2001.
Stable Geological Environment
1
Figure 2 HLW Disposal Concept
LEARNING FROM THE ROSETTA STONE.. .
In parallel with the preliminary site selection effort by NUMO, supporting R&Ds are in progress in JNC and other related organizations to enhance the reliability of repository technology and to improve safety assessment methodology and data base. A project to build two underground laboratories, one in a crystalline rock formation and the other in a sedimentary one, is also being undertaken by JNC. On the regulatory side, the Nuclear Safety Commission published their first report in July 2000, “The Basis for Safety Standards of HLW Disposal”, which defined the fundamental process and preliminary guidelines for staged licensing in the course from repository construction to its final closure. Discussions on such issues as retrievabilityheversibility and the needs for institutional control are continuing.
156 Geological disposal is based on the passive safety and its long-term safety should not rely on active management. It is generally anticipated that some type of institutional control, which may include such active management as monitoring, will be applied up to the time of the repository closure. There is a growing opinion that some kind of post-closure institutional control (PCIC) may be necessary, or can be of value, in order to enhance societal confidence in long-term safety and to minimize the possibility of unintentional intrusion by future generations to the repository. It is logical to assume that the PCIC has to be passive. Such measures as the restriction of land use by laws or regulations, the preservation of relevant records and information, and the placing of markers or monuments at or in the vicinity of the site of a closed repository are considered as candidate measures for the PCIC. The first two measures cannot be guaranteed to survive if a country collapses as a result of either gradual decline or a sudden drastic change in the societal system, while the third may have a better chance to survive such societal degradation or catastrophe. When it comes to the markers or monuments, one can find an example of historical success in the Rosetta Stone displayed in the British Museum. The last part of its inscription reads as follows6: “This decree shall be inscribed on a stela of hard stone in sacred and native and Greek characters and set up in each of thefirst, second and third temples beside the image of the ever-living king”. The role of the markers or monuments is obviously to transfer some message to the generations in far future. In that aspect, the Rosetta Stone turned out to be a historical success in that it utilized a stela of hard stone (longevity as a recording media), inscribed in three languages (hieroglyphs, demotic and Greek; language redundancy) and was placed in three separate locations (physical redundancy). Geological disposal of HLW is a human practice with historical time scale, and some of the ancient wisdom will help us to better conduct this practice. “The future of man will continue to be inescapably radioactive. We must approach it wisely and safely for betterment of allpeople”. - C. R. Richmond, 0RNL’-
REFERENCES
1. Weinberg, A. M., The First Nuclear Era, The Lrfe and Emes of Technological Fixer, ALP Press, 1994. 2. UNSCEAR, Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation, UNSCEAR 2000 Report to the General Assembly, with Scientific Annexes, United Nations, 2000. 3. Jaworowski, Z., “Ionizing Radiation in the 20” Century and Beyond”, atw 47. Jg. (2002) Heft 1, pp22 - 27, January 2002. 4. Jaworowski, Z., “Radiation risk and ethics”, Physics Today 52 (9), pp24 - 29, 1999. 5 . Masuda, S. and Kawata, T., “The Japanese High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Program”, Geological Challenges in Radioactive Waste Isolation, Third Worldwide Review, LBNL-49767, December 2001. 6. Andrews, C., The Rosetta Stone, The British Museum Press, 1981. 7. Richmond, C R., “Population Exposure from the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Review and Future Direction”, Population Exposurefrom the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1988.
THE U.S. APPROACH TO THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF LEGACY WASTE MANAGEMENT STEPHEN J. KOWALL Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Idaho Falls, USA ABSTRACT Over 50% of the US. population depends on groundwater aquifers for their drinking water. The subsurface is also where we dispose of almost all our municipal and industrial solid wastes, and where we intend to dispose of residual wastes from our cleanup of nuclear weapons program sites. Stewardship of residual contamination remaining after cleanup of legacy disposal and industrial sites is necessary in nearly every state to guard against potential groundwater pollution. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently completed two documents designed to coordinate science and technology activities to improve our understanding and management of the subsurface and stewardship of waste sites. In August 2001, DOE published A National Roadmapfor Vadose Zone Science and Technology. This roadmap addresses the knowledge and tools needed to describe and forecast accurately the processes controlling contaminant movement and the consequences of subsurface contaminants on our groundwater. In October of 2002, DOE released for comment a complimentary report, the Draft Long-Term Stewardship Science and Technology Roadmap. This report describes technical and social capabilities necessary for containment and monitoring of contaminants at subsurface disposal and legacy cleanup sites specific to the nuclear weapons program sites and identifies needed enhancements to these capabilities. On October 1,2003 the U.S. DOE will launch the Office of Legacy Management to play a key role in a new program designed to manage, document and monitor the dismantling of the agency’s infrastructure from the Cold War nuclear weapons program. The mission of the office will be to provide for the long-term stewardship of legacy sites and to provide for the improved health and safety of DOE workers. The office will ensure that as the Environmental Management program completes its clean-up mission, the legacy activities will remain a visible priority responsibility of the federal government. The functions of the office include: land management, environmental surveillance and maintenance, record keeping, and maintaining benefits for former workers. THE SCALE OF THE PROBLEM Over 50% of the US. population depends on groundwater aquifers for their drinking water. The subsurface is also where we dispose of almost all our municipal and industrial solid wastes, and, where we intend to dispose of residual wastes from our cleanup of nuclear weapons program sites. Stewardship of residual contamination remaining after cleanup of legacy disposal and industrial sites is necessary in nearly every state to guard against potential groundwater pollution.
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Residual contamination in the subsurface remaining after remediation is potentially available for environmental transport and will need to be carefully monitored over the long term. Monitoring is distinct from characterization, in that it typically begins after a site has been characterized. Long-term monitoring is necessary to confirm engineered barrier system performance and serve as a sentinel for potential failures. The state-ofpractice for contaminant monitoring systems at DOE closure sites has recently been described as being as much as 25 years behind the state-of-the-art. Using today's knowledge of subsurface conditions and flow, complete removal or destruction of contaminants is not always possible. In some cases, quantities of pollutants will remain as part of planned remediation. Conceptual and numerical models, a key tool for making environmental management decisions, reflect our incomplete understanding of subsurface processes. In their 2000 report, the National Research Council reports that past predictions of contaminant flow through the unsaturated subsurface have been grossly in error. The uncertainty associated with conceptual and numerical models used to support remediation decisions has resulted in a lack of trust by the public and excessive conservatism in the design of remediation approaches. A primary cause of the uncertainty in conceptual and numerical models is incomplete understanding of the behavior of materials (contaminants, nutrients, and microorganisms) in the subsurface; where and how the materials move and change over time.
WORKING TO DEFINE A SOLUTION The nation has a critical need to reach a sound and defensible scientific understanding of how contaminants move in the subsurface through multiple geological environments. This understanding is needed to reduce the present uncertainties in predicting contaminant movement, which in turn will reduce or quantify uncertainties in water resource protection, remediation, long-term stewardship decisions, and future sustainable development. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently completed two documents designed to coordinate science and technology activities to improve our understanding and management of the subsurface and stewardship of waste sites. In August 2001, DOE published A National Roadmap for Vadose Zone Science and Technologv'. This roadmap addresses the knowledge and tools needed to describe and forecast accurately the processes controlling contaminant movement and the consequences of subsurface contaminants on our groundwater. In October of 2002, DOE released for comment a complimentary report, the Draft Long-Term Stewardship Science and Technology Roadmap". This report describes capabilities necessary for containment and monitoring of contaminants at subsurface disposal and legacy cleanup sites specific to the nuclear weapons program sites and identifies needed enhancements to these capabilities. The product of these initiatives will be a dramatic improvement in our fundamental understanding of properties and processes. The new knowledge and understanding will be sufficiently developed, tested, and verified such that issues of scientific uncertainty will exert far less influence on public debates over interventions or on regulatory procedures to implement public policy. The scientific basis for monitoring and remediation will be advanced to provide long-term protection of ground water resources.
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MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING Government agencies with responsibility for ensuring compliance with environmental laws and protection of public health and the environment, members of the Environmental Council of the States (ECOS) and the participating federal agencies have developed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to address LTS needs and activities at residual contamination sites. The purpose of the MOU is to provide a common understanding and basis for discussion and coordination between ECOS and relevant federal agencies regarding LTS. Given that there are multiple federal agencies conducting both cleanup and stewardship activities, a coordinated effort is needed to address LTS at these sites. Such a forum provides an opportunity for the parties to discuss LTS issues, policies, procedures, coordination mechanisms and generally applicable tools for LTS sites. This dialogue will help promote a greater level of consistency, effectiveness and public health and environmental protection at contaminated properties associated with federal government activities throughout the country and should help foster a stewardship ethic into remediation and post-remediation activities. The parties to this MOU are: the Environmental Council of the States (ECOS); the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD); the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI); the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE); and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). THE PATH FORWARD On October 1,2003 the U.S. DOE will launch the Office of Legacy Management to play a key role in a new program designed to manage, document and monitor the dismantling of the agency’s infrastructure from the Cold War nuclear weapons program. The mission of the office will be to provide for the long-term stewardship of legacy sites and to provide for the improved health and safety of DOE workers. The office will ensure that as the Environmental Management program completes its clean-up mission, the legacy activities will remain a visible priority responsibility of the federal government. The functions of the office include: land management, environmental surveillance and maintenance, record keeping, and maintaining benefits for former workers. The U.S. Federal government has a commitment to protect human health and the environment and manage the long-term costs of winning the Cold War. A separate Legacy Management program would allow the Environmental Management program to focus on clean-up at DOE’S sites. This focuses the Department on long-term legacy activities and increases visibility of stewardship functions. The new office provides a direct line to the DOE Secretary of Energy and provides a budget and management separate fiom EM. Long-term steward activities are a visible, priority responsibility. The current DOE Vision on Long-term Stewardship is as follows.
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Vision: DOE will avoid, delay, or reduce the kequency or impact of harmful exposures to hazardous substances remaining after DOE cleanup projects and other operations are completed. DOE will ensure that design, construction and operation of new facilities avoid creating waste and contamination problems that will require long-term stewardship. DOE will use improved technologies and institutional structures that improve the reliability and reduce the costs of long-term stewardship. The current process in developing science and technology solutions is conceptualized below.
REFERENCES
' A National Roadmap for Vadose Zone Science &Technology, Understanding, Monitoring, and Predicting Contaminant Fate and Transport in the Unsaturated Zone, U.S. Department of Energy, DOEDD-10871, August 2001, http://www.inel.gov/vadosezone/. " Draft Long-Term Stewardship Science and Technology Roadmap, U.S. Department of Energy, DOE/ID10926, August 2002.
5.
THE CULTURAL PLANETARY EMERGENCY: ROLE OF THE MEDIA
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SPIN IN WAR AND PEACE
MICHAEL STUERMER Friedrich-Alexander-Universitat,Erlangen-Niirnberg,Germany When Henry Kissinger, on one of his many trips around the Middle East, crossed the Jordan River, he told his retainers, “There you see what public relations can do for a river”. Henry himself, whether in or out of office, is a master in building his own legend. He h e w the secret of spin long before the word was exported from tennis to politics. In the modem media society anything can become the object of spin, especially matters of war and peace, power and legitimacy. They are too important to speak for themselves. Indeed, it was an ancient Greek philosopher, Heraclitus, who observed that it is not the deeds that make people tremble, but the words about the deeds. The Iraq war, before and after, is no exception. It has highlighted a new state of US. hegemony - and, indeed, imperial overstretch - and the worst crisis in U.S.-European relations for over a generation. In the helter-skelter course of events statecraft and the long term were sacrificed to spin and the short term by all sides. Besides, most players have lost sight of the fact that Asia, from the shores of the Mediterranean to the Taiwan straits will be the 21” Century’s cauldron of crisis. Iraq is only a beginning. More is to come, whether we like it or not. In the modem media society of the west, reaching out via a1 Jazeera, Arabia TV and other mass media to the Greater Middle East, TV creates its own reality, in fact its own moral and political universe, with responsibilities at best unclear, at worst sinister. In and around Iraq, the media war was a sequence of events with their own momentum, their own laws, their own victims - not the least being Mr. Kelly, the BBC-informer who seems to have cracked under pressure and committed suicide near his home in Oxfordshire. The media war was not so much about straightforward military facts - which both sides, whether winning or losing, had good and irrefutable reasons to twist, to hide and to manipulate - but much more about the politics of war and, above all, the centuries-old question of a just war: in fact the battle raged over who would conquer, maintain and, in the end, control the moral high ground. TV of course won the day. Who can escape the suggestive power of pictures of life and death? But it should be noted that TV, by and large, has come to rely on pictures, not on ideas. It is strong on impressions and short on analysis, let alone concepts. It is the “bibliapauperurn” of the modem age. Let me give you one telling episode. A few days into the war, the London Economist, pro-war, came out with a front page showing a U.S. Marine soldier walking from left to right in the sandstorm. Four days later, the same soldier was on the front page of the anti war Der Spiegel, this time walking in the opposite direction. The Economist carried a caption “The fog of war”, alluding to Clausewitz and the usual uncertainties surrounding what is happening on the battlefield. Der Spiegel was more specific: “World power in the sand”, alluding to a German idiom that refers to a hopeless failure. What happened meanwhile was a very different story. The “embeds” with the U.S. forward columns reported time and again, that the U.S. troops were unable to see and move, let alone fight a battle. Saddam was led to believe that he could outflank the American advance. The Medina Division was dispatched, one of three reliable divisions in his portfolio, and practically annihilated from the air, a ready victim of what has been called network-centric warfare. Meanwhile, neither 163
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Comic Ali back in Baghdad, nor General Tommy Franks in Kuwait, could be expected to tell the truth - as the truth or any distortion of it is invariably part of the conduct of warfare. One side effect of the war was the perfection of neologisms, from “embeds” to “neutralising” to “friendly fire”. The bloody and deadly nature of war, any war, was to be kept out of sight of the general public. The real grisly pictures did not appear on TV before the death of the two Saddam-scions, long after the official end of hostilities, had to be documented to Iraqis of all denominations and beliefs. In the run up to the war the immediate threat of WMD was “jazzed-up’’to use a now familiar phrase - and a link between A1 Qaida and Saddam was alleged. But in reality, neither was very likely. To use Bio- and Chemical weapons against m o u r e d columns dashing forward at high speed would have been useless, indeed folly - as every student of those weapons and their uses must know, including Iraqi generals. Similarly, the link between Saddam, a secular ruler and a butcher of clerics, and the ultra pious followers of A1 Qaida would have been totally unlikely. Add to this the wild story of yellow cake being brought from Niger to Iraq for the production of nuclear weapons - a story discarded long before, not believed in the State Department and not supported by the CIA - and you have a picture that is worrying at best, and dangerous at worst. Because a government’s credibility goes first, and what follows is trust and legitimacy. Next time, when the danger is real and immediate, intel-services and governments will have a hard time convincing the doubters - perhaps until it is too late. Terror and WMD are indeed a hellish mix, which requires some rethinking of holy beliefs and firm assumptions from a past that was very different. So the Iraq war was, in technology and strategy, a war totally different from any Cold War scenario. But it was not yet one of the wars of the future when proliferators not only possess WMD, but are also hell-bent on using them. Moreover, it had nothing to do, except in the White House mindset, with global terror of the 9/11 variety. There are indeed some serious lessons to be leamt from the events before, during and after the Iraq war, and the final verdict of history will not be formulated according to the quantity and quality of WMD but by whether the war and its aftermath brought about a more stable Middle East framework, with beneficial effects on the entire area, including the Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process, or whether war and civil war will ensue, leaving more WMD in more illegitimate hands, and the world’s oil in close proximity to the world’s most uncontrollable crisis. The most serious consequence, however, is the fact that from now on, when governments pronounce a clear and present danger and the need to pre-empt, the general public will be extremely sceptical. The first victim of any war is always the truth. The second, and probably more lasting one, is legitimacy. Britain’s PM, even more then the U.S. president, finds himself in a profound crisis of credibility. Spin can do a lot for public policy - including immersing it in a long-lasting crisis. The UN played many roles in all of this - but certainly not that of a world government. Indeed, the chief weakness of the UN is that it has, through its charter, the supreme legitimising role - but none of the wherewithal. Indeed, the crisis started as a crisis of UN sanctions: 16 resolutions that Iraq should open all its arsenals, and very little pressure to enforce them. The U.S., instead of assuming for itself the role of attorney of world order, was unsure whether to go with the UN, or against. With UNSC resolution 1441 it seemed that a basis for joint action had been found. However it turned out that the serious consequences threatened by 1441 were, after all, less serious for France and Russia, with vast oil and debt interests inside Iraq, than for Britain and the U.S.. The route via human rights and regional stability, an
165 alternative option presented by the UN charter and its contemporary interpretation, was never tried. So the authority of the SC, not very strong anyway, has also to be counted among the victims of the war. The Secretary General is now trying to repair the damage. He points out the fact that, whatever rifts there were in the recent past, the overriding task is now to reconstruct Iraq after Saddam. Most Europeans tend to follow that argument, but not all of them. France and Germany, unwisely, insist on their pound of flesh. What has happened has serious repercussions on world order, on the Western alliance, an U.S. leadership, on Europe’s strategic cohesion - but above all on the fiture management of terrorism and WMD and any combination of the two. Both WMD and intelligence, through their very nature, require anticipation, imagination, conceptual thinking and, if worst comes to worst, pre-emption - the latter with or without cover under Art. 51 of the UN Charter that allows an action in self-defence but requires that the defender consults to the UNSC as soon as possible. Our concepts of international law lie far behind the reality of threats in our time from WMD, the privatisation of war, failing states, terror and the relative ease with which all of the above can be accomplished. The laws and procedures of the UN are largely outdated, and the world organisation lacks the executive power to bring a miscreant to justice. If, at some time, the U.S. should withdraw from the evils of the world behind the security of two oceans, contrary to the views and illusions of many critics of the U.S., the world would not be a better place but a playground for chaos. Trust is the ultimate glue that keeps modem states together, and no less modem alliances. The Iraq war has shattered much of this: governments have jazzed-up intelligence findings, justified pre-emptive war with unlikely assumptions, others have looked for domestic profit irrespective of the cost to international security and trust. What remains is a contradictory picture: on one side the rise of WMD, the failure of non-proliferation, failing states and private wars. On the other side the weakness of the UN, the divisions within the Western alliance, the resentment of the general public and the loss of trust. The frolicking about the end of history is over. The world is still a dangerous place, and even more so than during most of the Cold War. World order, if it were not for the U.S., is nothing but an empty concept, fraught with illusion. WMD are great equalizers, promising invulnerability to the uninitiated and, along with global terror, they are the weapons of choice of the weak against the strong. Iraq is only the beginning - and its outcome is still very much open. The real test, very soon, will be over Iran and North Korea. Mercifully, the more reasonable countries seem to have learnt a few lessons from the past, and above all that the Iraq disaster must not be repeated. War, in the famous words of General de Gaulle, brings things to light that otherwise remain obscured.
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6.
THE CULTURAL PLANETARY EMERGENCY
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CULTURAL INTOLERANCE AHMAD KAMAL Senior Fellow, United Nations Institute of Training and Research New York, USA It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belieJ; it was the epoch of incredulig, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us ... - Charles Dickens Never in the history of the world has mankind had such powerful tools at its disposal, in communications, in medicine, in armaments, in access to knowledge, in everything. The speed of communications has made space and time curve around itself as we move closer and closer towards cheaper travel, instant emails, and awareness of distant events in real time. Advances in medicine have tapped the remotest comers of isolated rain-forests to unfold the mysteries of natural chemicals and brought them to our doorstep in our local pharmacies, while at the same time unravelling the innermost secrets of our being in an effort to clone us into our bionic alter-egos. The destructive capacity of armaments has reached proportions that give us a glimpse into Armageddon and hell. And for the first time in history, the access to information and knowledge has become a universal phenomenon, with no differentiation of race or colour or sex or belief. With such tools at our disposal, this should be about as close to paradise as we can get. Alas, at the same time, never in the history of the world has there been a greater gap between the potential of the available tools, and the actual delivery of results in an ever-shrinking world. The gap between the rich and the poor continues to grow, and has in fact speeded up in the past decade. In a world where much is touted about perfect markets and economic opportunity, one third of the world has no access to safe drinking water, one fourth of the world has seen its per capita income actually decline in just the last decade, one fifth of the world lives on less than a dollar a day. Conflicts and tensions abound; the death toll of the local, regional and ethnic wars of the last fifty years is greater than the total losses of life in World Wars I and I1 combined. Surrounded by poverty and pestilence and endemic disease, shunned or ignored by the rich and the powerfbl, for many in the world today, life is a living hell. The question then is, why this paradox in a co-existence of contradictory realities? How does it happen that with all the tools and the knowledge in our hands, we fall so short of the desired results? What prevents us fiom unleashing the pent-up potential in vast populations for the betterment of mankind as a whole? There may be many reasons for the gap between capacity and delivery, but shortage of resources and facilities is not one of them. We have an enormous surplus of wealth in the world, and to the extent that wealth is a fair indicator of the availability of resources, there is obviously no problem in the latter. So, what prevents us then from moving towards a more equitable world?
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The main problem appears to lie in cultural intolerance, and an artificial division of the world into “we” and “they”. Only our own problems and security and incomes and quality of life are important; the rest of the world becomes largely secondary or invisible on our radar screens. In many cases, even our basic knowledge of others, and of their problems and cultures, is sadly deficient. Slogans and sound bites become the basis of our assumptions about others, and with our minds thus made up, we do not then want to be confused by facts. For all of us, knowledge is after all an intensely personal experience. Whether we like it or not, all that we know is limited and contained inside each of our respective brains. We tap into the unlimited external databases of knowledge, but what we retain is only what each one of us soaks up and imbibes from that database of knowledge. So all knowledge becomes subjective in the ultimate analysis. There are no truths, only our own perceptions of the truth. From there, the jump into “self-centrism’’ is automatic. Each one of us has no choice but to place ourself at the centre of the world, since all our knowledge is so completely centred in each individual brain. “I alone am at the centre of the universe; everybody else is outside”. Once we begin thinking from this arrogant perspective, it is easy to extrapolate this self-centred view of the world to one in which the focal point or centre lies not just in each of us, but also in each of the cultures to which we belong, with each culture seeing itself as central or superior, and all others as subordinate and possibly inferior. How easy it then becomes to forget the commonality of our origins and the true history of human evolution. By all scientific evidence, human-kind started somewhere in the RiftValley of East Africa, and it is from there that the historic migrations of history took us across into the Middle East and Central Asia first, and then into the different branches which spread into South Asia, into Europe, and finally across the Bering Straits into North and South America. That is the scientific origin of the human species, and the history of human migrations. Thus we are all Africans in our origins and ancestry. The fact that our geographical migrations out of Africa have subsequently developed into different cultures and ethnicities does not belie our common origins. If there are differences among us, in colour, in language, in food patterns, in thinking processes, these are no more than environmental variations on a central theme that remains common to all of us. Neither our common origins, nor our outward differences should cause apprehension or concern. The latter particularly should be a source of wonder, and should coax us into an effort to learn from each other as we follow the impact of geography on commonalities. Only an intelligent and open-minded study of differences can lead to dialectical analysis, and only dialectics can lead us into the critical thinking that is of the essence in our search for truth. That is unfortunately not how most of us see the problem. The self-centricity and ethno-centricity from which all of us suffer has made each of us feel superior to all others. An effort was made by all religions to bring us back to reality with lessons in humility, but these have remained largely unsuccessful. All are guilty of transgression.
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In the Far East, we saw China consider itself as the self-contained centre of the world and for many centuries refuse all contacts with all other countries. Next door, the Japanese convinced themselves that they were, in any case, descended directly from heaven, and were thus a class apart, far from the maddening crowd of all other populations. In the Middle East, which saw the extraordinary birth of the three great monotheistic religions of the world, each of these three religions saw itself as the final truth, and looked down with relative scorn on the preceding ones. This is quite surprising, considering that each of these three monotheistic religions believes in the same one God, and each believes in all the Prophets of the past. Be that as it may, these three religions, with all their continuity and commonalities, have been responsible for some of the greatest human tragedies of human history, and have brought a bad name to faith and religion itself. That is even truer in current times, as religious extremists and cult members start disrespecting human life and innocent bystanders, and embark on warped terrorist acts. Meanwhile, Western civilisation has distinguished itself through recorded history with perhaps the worst excesses of arrogance and intolerance. From the initial mobs of the Crusaders, to the dark tortures of the Inquisition, to the inhuman treatment and pursuit of the Huguenots, to repeated Pogroms, to outright Slavery and Segregation, to the permanent blot of Colonialism, to the abhorrent racism of the Nazis, to continued Neo-Imperialism, the list is endless, as is the injustice and heartache that it generated. If only this cultural intolerance was a thing of the past. We could then let historians analyse the where, and the what, and the why. But it continues to fester and remains formative in our thinking processes even today. Consider some of the following examples: One of the important elements of contemporary history lies in the multilateral experience, as exemplified in the United Nations and in other international organizations, both governmental and non-governmental. The basic idea was to replace the rampant self-centred nationalism that had given rise to endless wars over previous centuries, and to two World Wars in the last century, by a system under which decisions of common import would be reached by debate and compromise and consensus, and not on the battlefield. That inevitably required a commitment to peace and non-violence as a “common objective”, and to Rule of Law. The subsequent results are far from reassuring. Take the balance sheet of the most important Member State of the United Nations, one which initiated the very idea of the Organisation, and was responsible not just for preparing the original draft of its Charter, but also for its very establishment, and much of its initial financing. A partial list of the internationally negotiated treaties and conventions that it has not signed or ratified is illuminating. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the Statute of the International Criminal Court, the Convention on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women, the Convention on the Rights of the Child, the Treaty on Anti-Personnel Landmines, the Kyoto Protocol on Global Warming, etc. It is perhaps unfair to single out a single country. Contradictions abound here between theory and practice, not just in one, but in many countries. The basic argument in all these cases is one of “selectivity”, namely that laws apply only to others. Each one of us is a king, and since the king is above the law, he
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should be able to pick and choose the rules that he wants to follow. Such exceptionalism flies in the face of the whole concept of Rule of Law, just as it negates the very fundamentals of Democracy. Some of this may be because of the enormous power that some Western countries have built up, either by the ruthless exploitation of other populations or lands, or by the measures taken to protect and expand their own economic dominance. Some of it may however be due to the mercantilist feeling that only one’s own interests are relevant or important, thus excluding or denying the whole interconnected nature of the world. Consider other examples: The Non-Proliferation Treaty, which is considered as the cornerstone of the international effort against nuclear weaponry, clearly makes a discriminatory definition of the threat, when it allows five countries to retain nuclear weapons, while it asks all others to give up the option to have them. The Security Council of the United Nations gives the same five countries the right to occupy their seats without going through the process of elections, and further gives each one of them a veto which can fly in the face of the political will of a 111 190 other Member States. And we have all been numbed into believing that this is normal and acceptable. Alas, the crimes that are committed in the name of democracy.. . Or consider the continued problems in trade flows. Despite all the talk of free markets and open economies, despite the existence of agreements negotiated and agreed to after years of arduous debate in the GATT and the WTO, trade flows remain seriously constricted by protectionism and subsidies and artificially low commodity prices. Vast sections of the world’s population, in fact its majority, are thus denied the ability to feed themselves adequately, while cats and dogs in developed countries dine on caviar andfoie g u s . Note that each cow in Europe is subsidized at a rate greater than the total per capita income of around two billion people in the world. “If they do not have bread, let them eat cake”. Or take the whole issue of migration. Human migrations are, as we well know, part of the fundamental forces of history. They have transported each one of us to where we are located today. And yet, new immigration laws and restrictions, developed only in the past hundred years or so, now place insurmountable impediments against human movements. In the process, such restrictions constitute a basic denial of the most fhdamental and historic human right to move freely in the search for a decent life. And we talk glibly of human rights. Surprisingly, the most stringent restrictions exist in those countries which tout themselves as champions of human rights and democracy, or pride themselves as “melting pots” where pioneers and immigrants have built up their own achievements in recent centuries. For thousands of years, human history has attempted to move away from the divine right of kings to do no wrong, towards concepts of responsibility to fellow man, and to democracy, and rule of law. That is not a dream; it is the inevitable march of history, of the unfolding of social rights and social responsibility, as human beings move constantly upwards from their lower caveman instincts to higher reasoning. It is also part of the spiritual underpinnings of society, and of all faith and belief. The question then is, is this situation of cultural intolerance and intellectual violence one which is inherent in our self-centred human metabolism, one that we
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will all have to just accept and live with, or is it permitted to us to question, and hope, and dream, and to propose solutions? The question is more important than it sounds. This is, after all, not an academic argument, but one that is determining much of the actions and situations in which we find ourselves hopelessly enmeshed. We live in a world of enormous cultural diversity, rich in the warp and weft of its texture,'nuanced in its tones and colours. Surely those cultural differences need to be studied and examined with due humility, so that the learning curve becomes enriching, rather than starting from the conviction that all others are inferior, that we alone carry the heavy burden of truth and knowledge, and all others are no more than incarnations of the devil. There is continuing danger that such arrogance will not only engender the type of frustrations and hostile reactions that we have witnessed in the recent past, but also erode the very principles of civilized behaviour that led to the glorious revolutions of the past, and which were then further refined over time into universal precepts and principles. Our modem age has all these principles laid out before it, democracy or the respect for the majority, human rights or the respect for the minority, empathy or the relative importance of the speck and the mote, dialectics or the constant search for truth, dialogue or debate with words and ideas, as opposed to swords and violence. Let history not judge us harshly for the gap between our precepts and our practice. Let wisdom and tolerance not be sacrificed at the altar of arrogance and instant self-gratification. That is the true planetary emergency today. With dialogue and understanding, and empathy and humility, all problems can be resolved. With cultural arrogance and superiority, none of them will.
THE IMPACT OF THE PLANETARY EMERGENCIES ON WORLDWIDE PRODUCTIVITY AND COOPERATION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
H.E. PROFESSOR ANTONIO MARZANO Minister of Productive Activities, Rome, Italy 1 - In the last two centuries, under the influence of the Enlightenment and of industrial transformation, there has been an evolution of the prevalent culture. Sensitivity towards the events of nature has declined. This has happened due to, on the one hand, scientific progress and, on the other hand, due to the reduced impact that natural disasters have had on the economy (with the passage from agriculture to industry). For almost two hundred years, the conviction that mankind's control over nature would become ever more complete has distanced the attention of public opinion and governments towards growing imbalances in nature. Peasant culture was much more attentive to, and almost dominated by, external natural events. Industry was not randomly labelled as 'manu'-facturing, i.e., as dependent on the hand (mano) of man and not on what happens in the fields. Not that there was a lack of the occasional upsetting event. Such external events, however unfortunate they might be, were not considered very relevant from an economic point of view. The velocity with which wealth was growing, thanks to industrialization, was more than adequate compensation for the earthly, material damages being incurred. These are remembered not as economic damage, but instead they remain in our collective memory as part of the natural drama of mankind. Sensitivity towards environmental issues remained marginal for centuries. One can say that this theme surfaced at the level of public opinion only in the last thirty years. One can also say that it is within that span of time that one finds the birth of political organizations dedicated, in their statutes, to addressing (not always in a rational manner) the environmental question. Today, sensitivities towards environmental catastrophes are much more acute. It seems to me that the turning point came with the awareness that the stock data regarding accumulated wealth had become more significant than the data regarding the annual production of wealth. The accumulated wealth is enormous, while the rate of the development of annual income has weakened, passing for example from 7-8% in the 1950s to 2% annually. To repair the material damage caused by destructive events that disrupt the huge amount of existing wealth would cost a much greater number of years of income flow. Another stock data came to assume greater importance: environmental damage also accumulates. When an industry produces environmental damage that cannot be repaired as rapidly as it is created, this damage continues to accumulate. A typical example is the greenhouse effect. The stock of environmental damage grows, and it soon reaches the point at which it becomes a collective problem. I would like to add that the urban concentration of the population has also contributed to evidence this problem. The concentration itself sharpens the environmental problem, as contrasted with the case of a lesser density, i.e., of a territorial diffusion of the population and of the productive structure. And so this brings me to explain, from an economic and political point of view, the cultural evolution that we have noted in times that are relatively recent with respect to the greater past.
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2 - What response could one rationally give to the worsening of these problems, and to the fears of public opinion? It does not seem to me that one could propose a return to the past, that is to say, the pre-industrial past. That past, contrary to what anyone thinks, was not at all an Arcadia. Arcadia, on the contrary, never actually existed. The pre-industrial conditions of life were, from any point of view, of great poverty, of great inequity, of great sanitary backwardness. It was a past in which the life of man was short and exhausting. The cities were filthy and dark. The hours of work were intolerable. The average life span was dramatically lower than today. The return to an epoch like this would itself be a catastrophe. It is enough to think about the manner in which the populations of entire continents that have never known industrial development still live today. Many of us visit these places in order to rediscover things that we no longer have: uncontaminated nature, the untainted traditions of life, more time spent for contemplation than for productivity! But we would not choose to live this life. Our curiosity lasts the length of a tourist trip, except in a minority of cases for the most noble of noble people who choose to dedicate their life to alleviate the suffering of local inhabitants. No, the return to the past is not the right choice. This must be said because whoever preaches a return to the past can easily find consensus in those, above all among young people, who are generically unsatisfied and would like a different world. Yes, they want a world that is different, as their saying goes. Different, but not worse. 3 - That being said, we certainly do not undervalue the problems that we have before us, but they must be analysed rationally. The theme is ample and well articulated. At this point I can only offer a few examples. The first example is the problem of water. It is especially difficult to ignore this problem on an island like Sicily, which is often caught up by the problem of water shortage. Furthermore, the year 2003 was declared by the United Nations to be the international year of water resources, thus bringing a great deal of attention to the planetary problem of assuring greater availability and better usage of water resources for the world. First, only about 1% of the available water on our planet is suitable for human consumption. In addition, the growth of pollution that results from agricultural as well as industrial activity tends to reduce the level of effective availability. It would first seem that we have to deduce the existence of a structural insufficiency of this vital resource with respect to the expansion of human needs. But this resource is also renewable at a very high frequency although a large part of it is wasted. It is estimated that about half of the water introduced into the water system is lost due to a scarcity of installations. We need instead to consider the perspective of the growth of needdrequirements; these depend largely on population dynamics, the heightening tenor of life and the expansion of industrial and agricultural usage. Agriculture, in specific, absorbs about 75% of the treated water from rivers and stratum; not only is water used intensively for cultivation, but very few techniques to save water and to control its dispersion are used. In light of these factors one could presume that in the future this will help to create a rising, demand-based pressure on a quantity of resources that tends to be stable. All else aside, the statistics relating to the American economy, which represents one of the world’s highest levels of consumption per inhabitant, indicate
176 that the intensity of the neearequirement in relation to population dynamics and to income levels has been in significant decline since the 1980s. The fact is that the American economy is now making better use of water, both in industry and in the family. Therefore, one cannot sustain the position that it finds itself facing a structural tendency towards the scarcity of this vital resource in relation to national needdrequirements. In reality we find that, in many parts of the world, water resources are poorly managed and poorly utilized in relation to different destinations of use. Being an article of vital consumption, in different areas water tends not to be treated as an item that is subject to the laws of supply and demand. Making it freely available to everyone has, in many countries of lower per-capita income, produced results that are the opposite of those considered desirable. It has been deduced, in fact, that if a country invests very little in the development of resources, it tends to make very poor use of what little is available. As a result, the poorer classes end up having to sustain the relatively higher costs of buying water from private vendors. The consequences are shown in precarious living conditions, lack of sanitation services and high incidence of illnesses due to lack of hygiene (according to some estimates, 60% of illnesses are caused by deficiencies in the water system), all because these countries remain embroiled in the trap of economic underdevelopment as well as traps created by human beings themselves. Among the types of intervention that may help to confront this problem, the first in line is political tariffs, both on prices and for the use of water. The determination of prices cannot have a character of consumer selection on the basis of income, treating it as a vital necessity for everyone. Nevertheless, it should function as a social sharing of the considerable costs of investment and of resource management. It should also function as an incentive-setter and optimiser of work in order to help adjust for particular practices that may be deep-rooted in the population (e.g., certain irrigation techniques for agriculture), but that are not very efficient. There is, in particular, an ample margin for reducing the extent of the investment for water in agriculture, and price mechanisms are suitable in this context. The private sector has an important role to carry out in improving the access to water resources. This sector can participate in financing investment projects, in infrastructure construction and in improving the management of supply services and the treatment of water. Considering the risk that, treating it as a natural monopoly, private interests can prevail over those of the community, it is indispensable to establish an entity of public regulation with well-defined regulatory outlines and entrusted with sufficient power. It must be publicly accountable for its work, being subject to the consequences of judiciary intervention when the community is dissatisfied with its work. The second example is that of energy. Energy is a fundamental factor of development, an essential key for continually improving the quality of life. The availability of energy is an indispensable condition for the growth of both developing countries and emerging countries, whose actual per capita consumption averages only 9% of that of North America and 16% of that of Europe. Energy, on the other hand, in all its forms of transformation and utilization, is responsible for a significant proportion of the emissions of environmental pollution; so here we find that we also have to confront one of the planetary emergencies, the change in the climate, with the simultaneous awareness that we will not be able to reduce the use of energy.
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In the foreseeable future and the technological perspective, according to the World Energy Outlook 2002 (WEO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy demand between 2000 and 2030 will increase by over 50%, mostly due to the growth of emerging economies. If, as indicated in the "reference scenario" of WEO, this increase in demand is primarily met with fossil fuels, we must expect an increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide by more than 50% with respect to current levels, with a probable growth in risks for the climatic balance of the planet. It is considered inevitable, at least until 2030, that the increase of emissions provoked by the growth in consumption of fossil fuels in the short-medium term will be attributable most of all to the greater needs of emerging countries. On the other hand, no one can speculate that the protection of the climate can be insured from hypothetical economic crises in China, India and other emerging economies whose determined competition increases the global consumption of energy with its consequent growth in emissions. Growth that, for its part, could not be balanced by the reduction of 5.2% in emissions of more developed countries, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol. However, to ensure the stabilization of the concentration of COz at safe levels before the end of the century, beginning in 2020 the response to the demand of energy will have to be based on the ever more diffuse use of renewable sources, of hydrogen technologies and of combustible cells, of "clean" and highly efficient technologies for the use of fossil fuels and of technologies for the "confinement and sequestration" of carbon dioxide. This is the scenario of the so-called "decarbonisation" of the economy. Hydrogen merits a discussion of its own, for it could be an "ideal" vector for local environmental impact. In the scientific sector there has been talk of hydrogen for over 25 years, but now it has passed into the sphere of serious research, development and demonstration, and the recent initiatives of the European Commission and the USA Administration have given credibility to such a hypothesis. The success of hydrogen, which does not exist naturally in its free state, will obviously be linked to the production of renewable sources that are either nuclear or from carbon with relevant "confinement and sequestration" of carbon dioxide: only in this way will the virtuous cycle towards which all countries must tend be primed. During the transition period (not short) towards this objective, which calls for a great investment in research, all activities linked to hydrogen technology will constitute an essential part of the know-how to acquire for the final half. At this stage there results a fully coherent activity that links the development of combustion cells, hybrid motors, the production of hydrogen from carbon with the capture and confinement of carbon dioxide, and new hydrogen turbines. I would like to remind you that recently Italy took part in an internationally organized effort, launched by the United States, referred to as the "Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum" and the first project was linked up, the "Power Gen" (project of research and development for the production of electricity and hydrogen from carbon with almost no emissions). But to return to the complex energy picture, in addition to intervening in production, one can act also on the front of energy demand. Here priorities converge on the efficiency of the final use, just as it did for supply services. The opportunities for intervention are very different from country to country. Italy, for example, is considered to be an efficient country because of its contained "energetic intensity" (energy consumed per unit of gross domestic product).
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There still remain many opportunities that need to be taken advantage of, however, such as the sectors of consumption in which it is possible and necessary to increase efficiency, and rationales already being employed that need to be pushed harder. Towards these ends, we are launching an interesting instrument called "white certificates", which are negotiable on the market like securities for ever more virtuous consumers; it is an initiative that parallels that of the "green certificates" that have already been launched to promote renewable sources. In the end, however, it is important to keep in mind that the diversification of supply with respect to fossil fuels demands an extraordinary effort of research and innovation, a true technological "shock", in order to create new and economically practical sources of "clean" and safe energy. I would like to underline the decisive role of research and technological development in confronting the planetary emergencies that we address here. Until now, in fact, I have spoken more than anything about how to best manage the problem of climate change due to the emission of greenhouse gas "sic stantibus rebus", with only a hint of the technological innovations that would allow us to confront the essence of the problem in order to resolve it at its roots. To do this in a way that science, technology, and the availability of qualified human resources are able to constitute a decisive tool for truly overcoming these planetary emergencies, it is opportune to point out the significance of research on supply and demand, and this is also the homework of governments. The third example that I would like to refer to is that of world hunger. It is a humanitarian catastrophe that strikes millions of people, 50% of which are children under the age of 15. The West does not do enough to eliminate or even to significantly attenuate this catastrophe. The problem is aggravated by the fact that our aid is often wasted by corrupt political regimes and by their propensity to use resources only for military purposes. In this context, technological research has proposed the Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). But the GMOs are typically debated in an ideological manner without any practical indicators. It is a debate brought to the forefront by trends that consider, in general, the advancement of technology to be a negative fact or that, for ethical motives, are opposed to the modification of the DNA of plants. Today, GMOs are being attacked in the same manner that the atom once was. Economics suggest, in reality, that we evaluate this and other similar problems based on the method of costs and benefits. If the benefit is represented by freedom from hunger, (and from the ecological viewpoint, the reduced use of pesticides) it seems difficult to me to find arguments of greater ethical value. There are costs, naturally, and of two varieties. The first is the protection of consumers, but I maintain that this could be overcome with clear information indicating the presence of GMOs and of scientific guarantees of safety. The other component is the high cost of production of the GMOs, especially for cultivation in Africa: here, there is hope that the latest technological advances are capable of reducing some costs such as, to begin with, those related to irrigation. These are real problems. But a prejudiced attitude towards this perspective must be rejected, both from an economic and a moral point of view. The President of the "Pontificial Council for Justice and Peace" has expressed this in exactly these terms. The Italian government proposes to raise the problem during its Semester of Presidency of the European Union.
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In conclusion, the problem of Planetary Emergencies probably cannot be completely removed, in all its manifestations of discontinuity in the balance of nature, from the human condition. Everything aside, it can be confronted in a more or less efficient mode that is based on a few conditions. The first two are political. Culture, before everything: I mean a sensitivity that is shared in public opinion, and over time a propensity to discuss these issues with a sense of realism and without ideological prejudices. This cultural transformation is the first objective for politicians. The second condition is Democracy: tyrannies are about other objectives, and they are not sensitive to planetary problems. The second group of conditions is technical in nature, and they are mostly economic. It is necessary to use the economic method of cost-benefit analysis. In relation to costs, one must first evaluate and then utilize the compensations that are acceptable and that appeal to that part of the population that is most directly interested in the best current technologies. This holds good in general for the energy sector, for example, just as it does for toxic or nuclear waste or GMOs. If the inhabitants of a certain area accept to host toxic waste, it is right that those from all o f the other areas thus freed from the problem confer on the first ones the benefit of compensatory resources. The last condition is the development of scientific research and technology. Only this path can provide us with significant practical responses. This is also true more generally, beginning with the monitoring of astronomic, volcanic, marine, flooding, and climatic phenomena, as well as re-emphasizing energy, water, poverty, hunger and epidemics. Humanitarian and economic damage is enormous: 35 billions of dollars in 2001; 55 billions of dollars in 2002. The financing of research in these sectors should be proportional, with a coefficient of a probabilistic type. Allow me to say at this point that the true Planetary Emergency is the opposition to scientific and technological progress; and, in second position, but not very far behind, the far too short time horizon for the actions of governments.
WAR ON TERRORISM: A SEARCH FOR FOCUS VICTOR KREMENYLJK Institute of USA Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ABSTRACT The war on terrorism has become an obsession for governments and the public at large. A tremendous amount of time and money is spent on what seems, from the point of view of conventional wisdom, to be a relevant and urgent policy task. But in reality what is done is rather far from the desired goal and may even contribute to the further growth of terrorism. INTRODUCTION What is terrorism? Which type of terrorism is currently discussed? The current literature is rich in descriptions and explanations of terrorism. From it we may get a general notion that terrorism is a policy/strategy that uses intimidation, threat, blackmail as a tool, as a method to reach success. A more specific description is so far unavailable. What we have instead is the operational description. But even in this case terrorism may and should be regarded in two main aspects. The first, “legitimate” terrorism because it is used by formal structures (governments, police, armed forces) in order to force their opponents to adhere to some international or domestic rules. The best and most demonstrative case in international relations is the nuclear deterrence which played the central role in the days of the Cold War and continues to do the same today in some dyads: Russia-USA, USA-China, RussiaChina, India-Pakistan. The policy is abhorred and rejected by many, but exists officially as a national security strategy. In domestic affairs the same “terrorism” is used as a method of intimidation of criminals and would be criminals. The method is sanctified by millenniums of existence. The other dimension of terrorism is the illegal use of intimidation and threats, its use by the outcasts, by the criminals or revolutionary groups as a tool in their struggle against oppression. This type of terrorism has the same long history as the first type and has, among its most spectacular cases, things as ancient as the assassination of Julius Caesar by conspirators or as important as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Evidently, in all current discussions of “terrorism”, the second notion is the focus of attention. But in discussing it we must remember always that “terrorism” as a policy, as a tool, as a mechanism, was invented by the authorities and, to a large extent, it continues to exist namely because it is a “legitimate” method of forcing the people to comply with existing rules and laws. This aspect is important because it completely contradicts the ideas of the “contrat social” which are regarded by many as the essence of social organization, while in reality it is often the brutal threat of force which forms the consensus in society. Understandably, this should in no case be regarded as justification of the “second” terrorism. Every act of violence provokes a feeling of disgust among psychologically sane people. Including the use of force by those who claim that their violence is only a “response” to official violence. But for the sake of fairness, as well as for 180
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the sake of the validity of the analysis, we must understand that the disgusting world of terrorism consists of two pillars and the first one, official terrorism, is not only of the same origin as the second, but it also creates the conditions which give birth to “illegal” terrorism. WHAT IS “ILLEGAL” TERRORISM? IS IT WHAT WE STUDY? “Illegal” terrorism, the use of violence by criminal or other opposition forces in response to coercion by governments or as a means of promoting their goals irrespective of the government’s actions, is a rather ancient problem. There were always people and conditions in which violence was legitimized and regarded as appropriate and even necessary by extremists - political, religious, traditionalist. Sects of assassins existed in Islamic countries, different groups of carbonarias or other revolutionaries as well as Mafiosi existed in the enlightened nations of Europe. Russian nihilists and narodniki turned the life of Russian society in late 19th century into a nightmare, killing even the Tsar Alexander 11. This type of terrorism appears to have been born of the conditions of the struggle between the upper and lower groups of the society, when socialDarwinism was regarded as a norm for social relations between different classes. Actually, Marxism was, in a way, one of the offspring of this major social trend because it has proclaimed revolution and dictatorship as a means to struggle for justice and equality. Terrorism, from this point of view, is a blend of some specific psychological approaches and feelings of despair and hopelessness, which very often accompany the life of millions. Simple poverty leads to the growth of crime when people hope to make their life better though illegal acquisitions of other people’s life or property. What leads to terrorism is poverty magnified by injustice, by demonstrative unfairness of life, which not only humiliates the oppressed but leaves them without any hope for justice and a better life. So, what we discuss as a major issue in global emergencies is a product of a certain policy and social structure magnified by psychological deviations caused by religion, ideology and human feeling. This is a complicated phenomenon that has no simple solution and in no case should be regarded as a police operation as it is treated in the official strategies of the governments.
WHY IS THIS SO IMPORTANT? Besides the threat to the lives of important people or important objects (palaces, monuments, infrastructure), terrorism has always played an important role in challenging the basic grounds of government. It has always been aimed at challenging the authorities and demonstrating their weakness, their inability to defend themselves and their people, their vulnerability. This was evidently the terrorists’ major “sin” in the eyes of the authorities, though very often the major argument in their reaction to terrorist attacks was genuine or false sympathy for the victims, to the innocent people who suffered fiom terrorists. For the terrorists it was more than important to demonstrate not only their rejection of the common rules and laws, not only their challenge to the established norms of respect of human life, but their ability to challenge the authorities, to demonstrate to what extent they were weak and unreliable. It was always mindless
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competition between official power and its enemies, the terrorists, where human lives and human feelings were the major currency. The difference between terrorist activity today and traditional terrorism is mainly the fact that current society has become too vulnerable and too fragile. Traditional medieval structure of society was extremely robust because it was based on independence and the autonomy of its elements. Each village, manor, or city was essentially independent, able to satisfy its basic needs, and could survive even if almost all its ties with the outside world were severed. The best examples of it are the Boers in South Africa who emigrated in the 16th century and until the 19th century had almost no contact with the outside world but still survived. Current society is built on another principle. Instead of autonomy and the independence of its units, it is based on the division of labor, market communication and interdependence. It makes links between different geographical and functional parts of the society both extremely important for the life of society as a whole, and extremely vulnerable because they cannot be protected completely from terrorists: air communications and airports, railways, roads, sea and river-ports and others. A blow to communications, including transportation, electric lines, gas and oil pipes, always has a tremendous resonance and is extremely painful for governments and societies. The other side of current terrorism - hostage-taking, threats to the common people (poison gas, radiation, epidemics, etc.) - also has a special effect because of the changes in values, because of the growing price of human life in the eyes of society, and its validity for economic life. Today’s terrorism deals a double blow to society: victorious barbarians make people feel desperate and question the basics of their life. There can be no doubt that terrorism is a significant threat to humankind and it may acquire even more dangerous proportions in the future if it acquires weapons of mass destruction, if it hits major communications or major cities, if it gets a possibility to use outer space. The task of fighting terrorism becomes as important as was the task of putting an end to Cold War brinkmanship. WHAT SHOULD AND CAN BE DONE? WHAT SHOULD NOT BE DONE? Terrorism is a sign of some serious disease in the society. It should be treated as such and, for the purposes of curing this disease, a certain strategy must be worked out. As a beginning for this strategy, two different dimensions should be outlined. WHAT ARE THE SOCIAL AND PSYCHOLOGICALMECHANISMS THAT PRODUCE TERRORISM? And what can be done to correct these mechanisms or, maybe, to destroy them: inequality, poverty, the isolation of separate groups (ethnic, religious), humiliation as a policy, denial of human rights and all the other elements that exist, which are very often detected and described by human rights watch-groups but are ignored by governments and the public. The international system is only at the beginning of the quest for human rights and the rights of minorities. The necessary documents exist but there is almost no adequate means in forcing the governments and other nations to comply
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with these documents. The notion of “national sovereignty” is very often used as a shield against legitimate and founded inspection of the situation in problem areas: Chechnya, the Balkans, Cyprus, Israel and Palestine, Libya, and many other cases where there are problems with justice and fair treatment of the people. However, this is not simply in response to our natural feeling of sympathy towards the oppressed; this is a strict demand of the whole human system that wants stability and protection from destructive variables. The purpose of this anti-terrorist strategy would be to reduce, as far as possible, the favorable environment for terrorists - sympathy of the people, inflow of volunteers, supply of information and protection. This can be done through a combination of social-psychological campaigns with strict and clear legislation that will differentiate between terrorists and people who help them (voluntary or involuntary), with the general purpose of stripping the terrorists of the image of “fighters for justice” and at the same time controlling those government mechanisms which sometimes multiply terrorists due to excessive brutality. The other part of this strategy is the struggle against terrorism as such. It is a crime. And we should remember that for millennia authorities have fought crime without definite success. Crime existed 5000 years ago; it exists today. There is something in human nature, as well as in the nature of the human society, which makes crime an inalienable element of life. The same may be said about terrorism. There should be special anti-terrorist units in the law enforcement agencies. There should be a global network to observe terrorist activities and collect information on them. There should be a well-grounded selective strategy that would sec thc difference between the terrorist activities and their followers. Punishment for terrorist activities should be equal to the gravest abuses of law: homicide, hostage-taking, intimidation, damage to the public and private property. But one point should be strongly made: terrorism should not be regarded as a propagandistic campaign and a political tool. In Russia, in Israel and in the USA, the governments have decided to actively use terrorism, or what they label as “terrorism”, as a means of seeking public support for their activities. For these purposes they over-exaggerate one side of terrorism - the military side - and present the whole case as a demonstration of their “will”, “decision” and “power”. Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestinian territory were indiscriminately bombed because of “terrorism”. Iran, Georgia and Libya are being threatened with bombing because of their “softness” on terrorism. In all cases it is no more than an attempt to use legitimate concern about terrorism as a means to gain political success by fostering people’s anxieties (very often with the help of the government’s propaganda). A legitimate war against terrorism was turned into an illegitimate political campaign that led to wars and domestic conflicts in which governments act as terrorists.
IRAQ AFTER SADDAM: AN IRAQI PERSPECTIVE PROFESSOR HUSSAIN AL-SHAHRISTANI Iraqi Rehgee Aid Council, London University of Guilford, Guilford, UK
In 1979, I had to make a choice: either work for Saddam on his nuclear weapon programme, or pay the price. The choice was simple, and the price turned out to be reasonable: 11 years and 3 months in prison. I returned to Iraq on 7 April 2003, two days before the fall of Saddam’s regime, on a humanitarian mission. First I had to go to the Abu Ghraib prison, where I had been imprisoned, to look for fellow political prisoners. None were found. I then went to look for them in mass graves. Tens of thousands of mass graves were uncovered; some held a few hundred remains and others had many thousands. Only a few people could be identified. On our humanitarian mission we visited many towns and villages and talked to common people about their hopes, expectations and dreams. Despite the diversity of Iraqi society, one common theme emerged. An Iraqi woman told us: “These three decades (under Saddam’s rule) were very hard. The first decade melted away our fat. The second ate the flesh. The third crushed the bones. But we are determined to keep our heads up.” An Iraqi man said: “Saddam tried to destroy the goodness of the Iraqi people. We must prove that he has failed.” A common commitment was: “Never again another dictator.” We discussed the current situation and the aspirations of the Iraqi people with the community leaders, religious leaders and intellectuals. It soon became very clear that the Iraqi people themselves must be engaged in a political process where they can take part in deciding their future and choosing their government. A simple road map is to hold elections for a founding assembly where all Iraqis, irrespective of their race, religion, sex or ethnic origin, can choose their representatives to this assembly. The assembly would then appoint a committee of experts in constitutional law to draft a constitution. This draft would be discussed, amended and adopted by the assembly. Then the draft constitution should be put to referendum where all eligible Iraqis would vote. Without such a constitutional process, Iraqis cannot be assured that their basic human and political rights are respected. They have a deep fear that another dictatorial regime might emerge in their country. Election of the founding assembly and holding of a referendum on the constitution must be held under UN auspices to ensure fair elections. The food ration registry that is currently being used for food distribution to every Iraqi family has complete data of
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people residing in every household and can be used for electoral registry. Failing to engage the people in a political process will further destabilize the country and provide fertile grounds for Saddam’s intelligence apparatus to recruit zealot youth to carry out terrorist acts as we have just witnessed in the tragic attack on the UN compound in Baghdad.
HOW THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY CAN HELP The international scientific community can play a very important role in helping Iraqis to overcome their tragedy and rebuild their lives and their country. Rebuilding institutions of higher education, universities and research centres is an important and urgent task. World universities, research centres and institutions can help Iraqi scientists through exchange visits to update their knowledge in a range of scientific fields. Iraqi universities have been cut off from the rest of the world for thirteen years. Most of the universities and research centres in Iraq were looted during the war and need to be resupplied with laboratory and research equipment and instruments. They also lack scientific journals. If international scientific journals cannot be provided directly, then Internet access to them would be very helpful. Two generations of Iraqi youth have been deprived of university education and have been forcibly recruited into military service. Rehabilitating hundreds of thousands of these youths by training them in different skills is absolutely crucial. Many of them would like to pursue a university education but it is impossible to physically place them in classrooms. Distance learning over the Internet is perhaps the most feasible and economical way of providing them with an opportunity to pursue a university career. Collaboration of various universities with Iraqi counterparts could bridge this gap and provide such an opportunity. Another area in which the scientific community can help Iraq is in providing sound scientific advice in cleaning areas contaminated with chemical, biological and radioactive waste. Saddam’s regime has produced large quantities of chemical and biological warfare agents and used them over the years in Iraq. Also depleted uranium was used near Basra during the Desert Storm operations. Radioactive waste has also leaked out from nuclear laboratories near Baghdad. A coordinated world effort is required to examine different contaminated areas in the country and assess the dangers to the population. This is an area in which Iraqi definitely needs the help of the international scientific community. SOUTHERN IRAQI MARSHES Restoration of the southern Iraqi marshes is another area in which international collaboration is required and the contribution of the scientific community is essential. The marshes were the cradle of human civilization and supported a unique culture and way of life that had continued almost unchanged since Sumerian times (3000 BC). Then these marshes were destroyed by Saddam’s regime. They were drained during 1992-95 and turned into a salty wasteland.
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The marshes: Yesterday
Today
Below are satellite images of the marshes before and after drainage
1972
2002
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The southern Iraqi Marshes are of global importance: For wildlife and biodiversity (81 species of waterfowl, which are rare or endemic); One of the most important wintering grounds for wildfowl in southwest Asia; They support almost the entire world population of two species: the Basra Reed Warbler and Iraq Babbler; Important natural resources for Iraq and for the people beyond Iraq's frontiers. Restoration of these marshes is a human, cultural and environmental concern, not only for the Iraqi people but for humanity at large. THE IRAQI ACADEMY OF SCIENCE The Iraqi academy was established in 1947. Saddam politicised the academy as he did with all other public institutions in the country. Under that regime scientists had to flee the country to avoid working on programmes to develop weapons of mass destruction. A group of recognised Iraqi scientists have set up a committee to revive the Iraqi academy. The mission of the new academy is to promote natural and applied sciences for the service of the people and country and to revive Iraqi creative talents for the good of humanity. Science is to be interpreted in its widest sense to include all natural sciences as well as engineering, technology and medicine. It is not to be a research establishment but rather a body of distinguished scientists dedicated to employing their talents for the advancement of science in the service of the people and country. The aims of the academy as outlined by the committee pursuing this goal are to: promote and strengthen science in Iraq in the service of the people and rebuilding the country; highlight science as part of the heritage and culture of Iraq; develop an ethical framework for the application of science for the benefit of the people and the country; attract and retain the best scientists and provide them with facilities to enhance their scientific contribution; ensure that Iraqi scientists engage with the best science around the world; promote science as a vital component of education at all levels; and provide independent scientific advice to the public and private bodies and encourage dialogue with the public. Support of the world academies, scientific institutions and the world scientific community is needed to help the Iraqi academy through its initial stages.
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7.
AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: ETHICS IN MEDICINE
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HEALTH AND SECURITY SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME ( S A R S ) : TAKING A NEW THREAT SERIOUSLY DR. DIEGO BURIOT WHO CSR Office, Lyon, France
The emergence of SARS is the second major event of the 21Stcentury to change the perception of the infectious disease threat in the eyes of politicians and the general public as well as public health professionals. The deliberate use of anthrax to incite terror, which quickly followed the events of 11 September 2001 in the U.S., was the first one. Prior to this event, the emergence of new diseases - and most especially, the devastation caused by AIDS -had sharpened concern about the infectious disease threat as a disruptive and destabilizing force, and given it space in national security debates. Since the mid-I970s, more than 40 new diseases capable of causing infection in humans have emerged. With the notable exception of AIDS, most of these new diseases, and older diseases that have established endemicity in new areas, have features that limit their capacity to pose a major threat to international public health. Some diseases, such as Escherichia coli 0 1 57.H7 and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakobdisease, depend on food as a vehicle of transmission. Diseases such as West Nile fever and Rift Valley fever that have spread to new geographical areas require a vector as part of the transmission cycle. Still others, such as Neisseria rneningitidis W135 , and the Ebola, Marburg, and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fevers, have strong geographical foci. Although outbreaks of Ebola haemorrhagicfever have been associated with case fatalities of 53% in Uganda and up to 88% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, person-to-person transmission requires close physical exposure to infected blood and other body fluids. Moreover, patients who are infected with Ebola virus during the period of high infectivity are visibly very ill and too unwell to travel. On 12 March, WHO alerted the world to the appearance of a severe respiratory illness of undetermined cause that was rapidly spreading among hospital staff in Viet Nam and Hong Kong. Three days later, on 15 March, a second mode of transmissionbecame clear: the new disease was traveling along major airline routes to reach new areas with great speed. Hospitals in Singapore and as far away as Toronto, Canada had begun to see cases. Alarmed by these events, WHO issued a second stronger warning later in the day, and gave the new disease its name: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. The global outbreak of S A R S moved into the spotlight of intense international concern, where it would stay for almost four months. In contrast to other epidemics, S A R S has features that make it a particularly ominous new threat. Its initial features - a concentration in hospitals and rapid international spread were cause enough for alarm. More disturbing facts quickly became apparent. Unlike many new diseases that bum out rapidly, S A R S was readily transmitted from person to person, with no weakening of its severity from one generation of cases to the next. At the start of the outbreak, the causative agent was unknown, as were its origins. No vaccine is available and no existing treatment has proved effective. Early diagnosis remains based on signs and symptoms commonly seen in a host of other diseases. Faced with these challenges, the health and medical professions were forced to rely on control tools from the earliest days of
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empirical microbiology: isolation, contact tracing, quarantine, and travel restrictions. The burden on health systems was enormous, further amplified by the number of hospital staff who became infected and the significant proportion of patients requiring intensive care. Certain life-saving procedures, such as artificial ventilation, intensified the risk of nosocomial transmission considerably. The first cases of SARS are now known to have emerged in mid-November 2002 in Guangdong Province, China. From November to January 2003, small outbreaks, each linked to an index case, occurred in seven cities in the Guangdong Province. Initial studies suggested a link between the index cases and occupational exposure to wild animals, and the civet cat in particular, consumed as human food or the markets where these animals were sold; this finding has not been substantiated in subsequent studies. S A R S was carried out of southern China on 2 1 February, when a medical doctor who had treated patients in Guangzhou and was himself suffering from respiratory symptoms checked into the Metropole Hotel in Hong Kong. Via mechanisms not yet understood, he transmitted the S A R S virus to at least 16 other guests and visitors. They carried the disease with them when they returned home to Toronto and Singapore, traveled on to Hanoi, or entered hospitals in Hong Kong. Doctors and nurses in Toronto, Hong Kong, Hanoi, and Singapore, unaware of the need to isolate patients and protect themselves, became the first victims as they struggled to save lives. Six months later, when WHO on 5 July announced that Taiwan, where the world’s last known probable case of SARS had been isolated 20 days earlier, had broken the chain of person-to-person transmission, a total of 8439 probable cases and 812 deaths have been reported throughout the world. That achievement marked the end of an unprecedented collaborative effort to halt the global emergency caused by a new disease. It also marked the end of a six-month period in which a disease dominated the news and demonstrated its capacity to cause damage in ways that went far outside the field of public health and far beyond the areas most heavily affected. SARS caused a level of social disruption and economic damage rarely linked to a health problem. Stock markets moved up or down according to the latest success or setback in the SARS situation. Major transportation and trade hubs were rendered quiet by a disease whose public face came to be symbolized by a mask. S A R S caused the closing of hospitals, schools, businesses, and borders. Public anxiety was expressed in the eruption of riots, mass population movements from affected cities, and unwarranted discrimination. Although much about the disease - including its future evolution - remains to be elucidated, several important lessons have already emerged. These lessons have been brought into sharp focus by the level of concern about SARS, which has also propelled exceptionally rapid solutions to some long-standing problems. Experiences in the containment of S A R S will be particularly useful in preparing for the next new disease, the next influenza pandemic, and the possible deliberate use of a biological agent to cause harm. The first and most compelling lesson concerns the need to report, promptly and openly, cases of any disease with the potential for international spread. In a globalized, electronically interconnected world, attempts to conceal cases of an infectious disease, for fear of social and economic consequences, must be recognized as a short-term stop-gap measure that carries a very high price: loss of credibility in the eyes of the international community, escalating negative domestic economic impact, damage to the health and economies of
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neighbouring countries, and a very real risk that outbreaks within the country’s own territory can spiral out of control. The second lesson is closely related: global alerts, especially when widely supported by a responsible press and amplified by electronic communications, work well as a preventive strategy. Following the alerts, all areas, with the notable exception of Taiwan, experiencing imported cases were able to either prevent any further transmission or keep the number of locally transmitted cases very low. Travel recommendations, including screening measures at airports, also appear to have been effective. Data on in-flight transmission of S A R S have implicated four flights in the exposure of 27 probable cases, of which 22 occurred on a single flight from Hong Kong to Beijing on 15 March. Following the implementation of recommended screeningmeasures, as advised on 27 March, no cases associated with in-flight exposure have been reported. Travel advisories have also given areas a benchmark for quickly containing SARS and then regaining world confidence that an area is safe from the risk of S A R S transmission. S A R S further demonstrates the decisive role of political commitment at the highest level. Viet Nam, which became the first country to break the chain of transmission in late April, showed how a developing country, affected by an especially severe outbreak, can triumph over a disease when reporting is prompt and open, commitment extends to the highest political level, and WHO assistance is quickly requested and fully supported. This success, subsequently repeated at all the known outbreak sites, demonstrates that S A R S can be contained, despite the absence of robust diagnostic tests, a vaccine, or any specific treatment. When awareness, commitment, and determination are high, even such comparatively primitive control tools as isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine can be sufficiently powerful to break the chain of transmission and cut off opportunities for further spread. On the positive side, progress in understanding the science of S A R S has been unprecedented. The urgency of S A R S challenged WHO to set in motion high-level scientific and medical collaboration. Within a week following the first global alert, WHO established three ‘’virtual’’ SARS-dedicated networks of virologists, clinicians, and epidemiologists to ensure a continuous research effort equal to the magnitude of the SARS emergency. One month after 11 leading laboratories joined the WHO collaborative effort, participating scientists collectively announced conclusive identification of the S A R S virus. Complete sequencing of its RNA followed shortly. This success is an encouraging sign of the willingness of the scientific community to set aside academic competition and collaborate to combat a shared threat. Of great importance, SARS has exposed serious weaknesses in health systems around the world. The disease places an enormous burden on health services in terms of measures for infection control, facilities for isolation, long periods of intensive care for a significant number of patients, and the demands of contact tracing and follow-up or quarantine. Even in areas with highly developed social services, the burden of coping with S A R S , including the number of hospitals with patients and the high number of health workers who became infected, often brought health systems to the verge of collapse. The costs of such care have likewise been enormous. Monitoring the evolution of S A R S has been hindered by the weak capacity of many national surveillance systems to provide detailed information daily. Data on age, sex, date of onset of illness, symptoms and signs, laboratory and clinical findings, and details of
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treatment and outcome are needed to further understanding of any rapidly evolving infectious disease threat. When surveillance in individual countries is strengthened along these lines, it generates the knowledge needed to support sound control measures and thus enhances prospects for global containment. The magnitude of the response demanded by SARS came at the expense of other diseases. Virtuallyno countryhad adequate surge capacity to cope with the S A R S caseload, especiallysince health care workers -the frontline troops at risk - were themselves frequent victims of the disease. Some hospitals were designated as solely for SARS. Others were closed. Still others were hastily organized almost overnight. Capacity to manage other medical emergencies shrank to dangerous levels. Diagnoses of serious epidemic-prone diseases, such as dengue, were missed. In China, programmes for the control of TB and AIDS and for childhood immunization were halted as S A R S usurped all available staff and resources. The shortage of expert staff to coordinate national and global responses to a rapidly evolving public health emergency is also an issue needing urgent attention. As a social phenomenon, S A R S provides a particularly striking example of the degree of public panic, social disruption, and economic losses caused by a severe and poorly understood new disease that threatens any country having an international airport. In the early weeks of the outbreak, S A R S competed with the war in Iraq as the top international news story. Schools and borders were closed and thousands of people were placed in quarantine, often enforced by surveillancecameras and military troops. Internationaltravel to affected areas plummeted by 50% to 70%. Hotel occupancy dropped by more than 60%. Many businesses, particularly in tourism-related areas, failed, while some large production facilities were forced to suspend operations when cases appeared among workers. Initial economic losses were estimated at U.S.$30 billion for the Far East alone. As a highly publicized, visible, and greatly feared disease, S A R S has stimulated an emergency response on a scale that has very likely changed public and political perceptions of the risk posed by all emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Just as Ebola came to symbolize the fear inspired by a new disease, S A R S vividly depicts a truism of the infectious disease situation in a highly mobile, interconnected world: an outbreak anywhere places every country at risk. The containment of S A R S - or any other epidemic-prone disease requires unprecedented solidarityand makes such an effort a matter of self-interestfor every nation. Much more research is also needed before scientists can make any confident predictions about the future of S A R S and the conditionsunder which human infection with the virus could recur. Like the Ebola virus, whose origins have never been discovered, the SARS virus could hide in some animal or environmental reservoir, only to resurface once conditionsagain become ripe for spread to its new human host. S A R S might also behave like many other respiratory diseases of viral origin, dying out as heat and humidity rise and then returningwhen the season turns cooler.As another possibility,person-to-persontransmission might still be occurring undetected somewhere in the world, but at a level so low that it defies detection until the disease once again flares up in an outbreak. The S A R S experience has some lessons about the importance of international collaboration and strong but politically neutral global leadership. Though exceptional in terms of its impact, severity,rapid international spread, and many puzzling features, S A R S is only one of around 50 internationallyimportant outbreaks to which WHO and its partners in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network respond in any given year. The high level
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of medical, scientific, political, and public attention focused on S A R S is helping the world to understand the severity of the infectious disease threat and the importance of international solidarity in the face of this threat. Following the end of the Cold War, when tensions were polarized by the superpowers and kept on edge by the nuclear arms race, attention has increasingly focused on threats to national and global security arising from events that undermine state stability or contribute to state failure. Such events include civil unrest, internal conflicts, mass migration of refugees, localized wars between neighbours, and infectious diseases, most notably emerging and epidemic-prone diseases. Due to the Anthrax cases in the U.S. in the late 2001, the reality of bioterrorism raised the infectious disease threat to the level of a high-priority security imperative worthy of attention in defence and intelligence circles. In so doing, it focused attention on several features of the infectious disease situation that make outbreaks - whatever their cause - an especially ominous threat. These include silent incubation periods that allow microbes to cross borders undetected and undeterred, the speed of spread made possible by the volume of air travel, and the potential for public panic amplified by instantaneous electronic communications. S A R S has now demonstrated these consequences in a dramatic way. It is the first new disease to spread along the routes of international air travel, placing any country with an international airport at risk. It demonstrates vividly the new reality of the infectious disease threat: an outbreak anywhere in the world places all countries everywhere at risk. SARS has also shown how, in a closely interconnected and interdependent world, a new and poorly understood disease can adversely affect economic growth, trade, tourism, business and industrial performance, and social stability as well as public health. S A R S is a serious public health concern, and in addition, can be perceived as a threat to national and international security due to the great social disruption it has caused. Fear of the disease has led to the closing of hospitals, schools, and borders, to travel restrictions, riots, mass population movements from affected cities, and unwarranted discrimination. In China, high-ranking government officials have lost their jobs. In all affected areas and neighbouring countries, the high economic costs of SARS are another potentially destabilizing force. This potential will be greatly aggravated should S A R S establish roots in a developing country with a poor health infrastructure. As a highly publicized, visible, and greatly feared disease, S A R S has stimulated an emergency response on a scale that has very likely changed public and political perceptions of the risk posed by all emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. At the same time, S A R S has shown how the containment of any emerging infectious disease depends on unprecedented solidarity of the international community. Given the universal nature of the risk, and the high price to be paid, such solidarity is also in the enlightened self-interest of each individual nation.
PROFESSIONALRESPONSIBILITIES OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENTISTS IN PUBLIC DISCOURSE Scientists should be aware of the social harm that can result from the premature proclamation of claims that are weakly founded. Scientists must be particularly careful when their science deals with questions of human import. They have entered the political arena. Jon Beckwith, Making Genes - Makmg Waves UDO SCHUKLENK Division of Bioethics, Faculty of Health Sciences University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa ABSTRACT This article describes how a small but vocal group of biomedical scientists propagates the views that either HIV is not the cause of AIDS, or that it does not exist at all. When these views were rejected by mainstream science, this group took its views and arguments into the public domain, including actively campaigning in newspapers, radio and television programmes for its views. I describe some of the harmful consequences of their activities, and ask two distinct ethical questions: what moral obligations do such minority-view type scientists have with regard to a scientifically untrained lay-audience, and what moral obligations mainstream newspapers and government politicians have when it comes to such views. The latter question will be asked because the ‘dissidents’ succeeded, for a number of years, in convincing the South African government of the soundness of their views. The consequences of their stance affected millions of HIV infected South Africans severely. INTRODUCTION Ever since the retrovirus HIV was declared to be the cause of AIDS, a small, but vocal group of scientists has argued in professional journals and publicly either that HIV is not the cause of AIDS, or that there is no evidence that HIV exists at all. The selfdeclared ‘HIV-dissidents’ blame other putative causes for AIDS, including the health consequences of highly active sex lives involving drug taking and multiple partners in developed countries, and/or poverty in developing countries.‘ They allege that essential AIDS drugs are one of the real causes of AIDS. A corollary of this position has been the view that AIDS is not infectious at all. Jurgen Habermas’ insights into our ‘erkenntnisleitendes Interesse’ encourage me to come clean at this stage and declare that I was one of those vocal HIV-dissident academics. Some years ago I changed sides in this dispute and accepted that mainstream views of HIV and AIDS are correct. Since I changed my views on this matter, I also happen to have changed my employer. I moved from developed-world, Australia, with its rather small number of people with AIDS, to developing-world South Africa, reportedly the country with the largest number of AIDS cases worldwide. Prevalence rates in the country among persons aged 15-49 years old are around 15%.2 Perhaps surprisingly for the uninitiated observer, the South African government’s publicly expressed views on HIV and AIDS, and its policies with regard to the provision of essential AIDS drugs have for a
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number of years mimicked, in important ways, the views of HIV-dissidents. There is some evidence that the government stance on HIV/AIDS has moved closer to mainstream views in 2002, but the question of whether this will translate into realistic HIV/AIDS policies remains unanswered at the time of writing. The publicly expressed views of the South Afiican President, Mr Thabo Mbeki, and his health minister, medical doctor Manto Tshabalala Msimang, are very strongly influenced by the views of HIV dissidents. In this article, I describe in some detail the inner workings of the HIV dissident group, its impact on high-risk groups in developed countries, as well as its impact on South African government policies. My attention will then turn to two interesting ethical questions that arise in this context. The first question is to do with the issue of what responsibilities biomedical professionals have towards a scientifically unqualified public. In the case under consideration, HIV-dissidents took their initially scientific dispute out of the arena of biomedical journals, with their standard processes of anonymous peer review, into the public domain, including TV programmes, gay magazines, daily newspapers and similar publications. Indeed, their Internet based offerings3 persuaded South African President Thabo Mbeki to take their views seriously. The consequences for the provision of essential AIDS drugs to those HIV infected among the country’s impoverished masses were grave. The question I should like to pose is this: if you are a biomedical scientist who fails to convince your peers of your views on a particular matter of legitimate scientific inquiry, is it acceptable that you take your minority views ‘to the streets’ in order to drum up public and media support for your stance? I will also examine whether one can legitimately blame the proponent of such a minority position for decisions made by members of the public who decide to act on such a minority view. The second ethical question is to do with the ethical responsibilities of leading politicians and government officials towards their sovereign, the citizens of the country. I shall argue that the South African government has, over many years, neglected its moral obligations towards HIV infected individuals and people with AIDS, while pursuing AIDS policies strongly influenced by dissident views. THE DISSIDENTS Much of the dissidents’ claim to fame and public recognition is based on original work and analysis undertaken by a German-American, University of California at Berkeley based biochemist Peter Duesberg. In 1987, he published a major review article in the journal Cancer Resear~h.~ This article evaluated the available evidence concerning the pathogenicity of retroviruses. There soon followed another major review article in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of science^.^ Duesberg, a highly decorated and elected member of the Academy, effectively concluded that there is no evidence that HIV causes AIDS. A few years later he complemented his stance on HIV with his own hypothesis as to what the causes of AIDS are.6 His views were quickly taken on board by some gay activists in the USA, including the late Michael Callen, a founding member of the People with AIDS Coalition in New York City, John Lauritsen, a writer with the now defunct weekly N e w York Native, as well as many others. I started writing articles in a Berlin based monthly AIDS magazine called vor-sicht (perhaps best translated as be carefur or have foresight). All these writings occurred quite early on in the epidemic. No
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life-extending AIDS medication existed at the time. People died in ever-growing numbers of one or another of the opportunistic infections now captured in the definition of AIDS. It certainly seemed prudent to me at the time to give support to critics of a hypothesis, the pursuit of which had done little to bring those in need closer to life-extending or lifesaving AIDS drugs. Very early on there were already obvious flaws in Duesberg’s publicly expressed opinion on HIV and AIDS. He stated categorically that HIV is not the cause of AIDS: while all he could have reasonably claimed on the basis of his analysis was that it had not been proven that HIV causes AIDS. Then there existed epistemological problems, such as the never resolved dispute between Duesberg and mainstream scientists over what constitutes proof of causation in the biomedical sciences. Still, Duesberg is no quack, and such was his personality that he actively sought the limelight, courting journalists as much as they courted him. A sharp and witty character, he quickly succeeded in gathering support. A group was established under the banner of ‘Rethinking AIDS’.’ This group consists of signatories under a petition demanding a thorough reappraisal of the HIV-AIDS hypothesis. It is worth having a closer look at the members of this group. Among its more influential members are a number of former Duesberg colleagues at the University of California at Berkeley, including Harvey Bialy, formerly Editor at Large of NutureBiotechnoZogy, and Kary Mullis, an iconoclastic Nobel laureate who was awarded the prize for his discovery of the polymerase chain reaction method. Other characters include Berkeley law professor Phil Johnson, best known for his creationist writings, assorted gay activists, and biomedical scientists many of whom have their own pet theory as to what causes AIDS. The group regularly points to a substantial number of scientists supportive of its agenda, to re-evaluate the HIV/AIDS hypothesis. Some of those members still listed are people who have been dead for a number of years. While it is correct that these people supported the objective of a scientific re-evaluation of the HIVIAIDS link when they were alive, it is clearly difficult to ascertain what these people would have made of the scientific developments and the accumulation of evidence for HIV as the crucial causative agent in AIDS, which has occurred in the years after their deaths. My own conversion to the mainstream view took place roughly when dissident predictions about AIDS deaths resulting from what they believed were highly poisonous drug cocktails (i.e. triple therapy) did not occur, and that actually the opposite became true. I saw people with AIDS, following years of decline, turn the comer after they began using these drugs. Dissidents would dispute this by various means, including claiming scientific fraud. Having seen with my own eyes the decline of close friends stop and revert, I was no longer an HIV dissident, for all practical intents and purposes. This is not to deny that there remain important open questions, including some very fundamental ones such as: by what exact direct or indirect mechanisms does HIV causes AIDS? And why is the epidemiology of AIDS so dramatically different on the African continent than it is in the USA, Europe, and most Southeast Asian countries? A second group of dissidents is led by Eleni Papadopulos-Eleopulos, a medical physicist based at Royal Perth Hospital in Australia. This group claims that HIV has never been fully isolated and seems to imply that it has not been proven that HIV does exist as a distinct entity at all.’ Duesberg certainly concurs that HIV does exist, but he believes it is a harmless passenger virus as opposed to the causative agent in AIDS.
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My contributions as a bioethicist were mostly of a critical nature. As it happened, some of the group’s predictions turned out to be true. For instance, during the years when the developed world was gripped by dire predictions about gigantic HIV/AIDS waves, tips of the iceberg metaphors and so forth, public health promotion campaigns designed to threaten those countries’ citizens with death if they refused to take proper precautions, were launched. This was a classic example of the health-belief model of health promotion campaigns in action. The dissidents claimed that there was nothing remotely resembling such an epidemic anywhere in the developed world. They predicted furthermore, that AIDS would remain restricted to the same high risk groups it was affecting at the time, namely men who have sex with men and IV drug users. I subscribed to those predictions and argued in several publications that it is ethically problematic to scare a whole population indiscriminately into changing its sexual behaviour based on questionable empirical evidence and predictions.” Most bioethicists’ writin s on AIDS in the late 1980s and . . . the uncritical adoption early 1990s were based on those types of predictions. 18 I cnticised of those predictions. While history has proven my analysis to be correct, it is worth noting that without my own ultimately flawed views on the HIV/AIDS connection, it would not have occurred to me to take the stance I took at the time. Alert peer reviewers of professional bioethics journals prodded me into establishing my conclusions without relying on the truth of the dissident position. Thanks to them, I do not find myself in a situation where I would have to withdraw anything I actually published in professional journals on AIDS - another outcome of the so often maligned process of peer review. Arguably, many of the publications that celebrated the ‘ethical issues’ of a non-existent heterosexual AIDS epidemic in developed countries did a disservice to the profession and to the public. HIV-DISSIDENTS’ HIGH PUBLIC PROFILE Dissident scientists and their lay support base did not limit their activities to legitimately questioning the mainstream consensus in scientific journals. The most obvious way of testing scientific hypotheses and theories is to present counter evidence and counter arguments. However, the dissidents decided also to take their views to a broader audience. Duesberg’s views featured prominently in feature-length TV programmes in most developed English-speaking countries, including the USA, UK, Canada and Australia. The Sunday Times in London ran several-month long campaigns designed to make a mockery of the mainstream consensus on HIV and AIDS. I am not entirely innocent with regard to content provided in Berlin’s magazine vor-sicht, at the time a widely read monthly non-peer-reviewed AIDS magazine, targeting primarily gay men in major metropolitan areas of Germany. Magazines such as Continuum in the UK targeted HIV infected individuals specifically, with issue after issue questioning the link between HIV and AIDS. Its pages are littered with advertisements for alternative concoctions such as homeopathy, complementary medicine, and other more or less absurd approaches to AIDS disease management. Scientists among the dissidents used this non-peer-reviewed magazine to thrash out arguments about content and personality in public. When eventually two of the magazine’s founders died of AIDS related illnesses, the dissident denial machine went into overdrive, speculating about the men’s former drug-taking habits, their number of sex partners, and pretty much any ‘cause’ other than HIV.
200 Part of the dissidents’ appeal was their claim that the ‘establishment’ was censoring their views. Evidently, nothing could have been further from the truth. The pros and cons of dissident arguments were evaluated with their active participation in mainstream journals, including Science, Cancer Research, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, AIDS Forschung, Genetica, and many others. In other words, while it may be true that exchanges between mainstream scientists and the dissidents have been acrimonious and at times emotional, there is little evidence that this impacted negatively on mainstream scientists acting as professional peer reviewers for leading medical journals, or else the dissidents’ paper would never have seen their work in print. The group’s initial reason for existence, a public appeal for a scientific re-evaluation of the HN-AIDS hypothesis, was published in Science.I3 Scientists among the HIV dissidents used their academic credentials and academic affiliations in order to generate interest, sympathy, and allegiances in lay audiences. They were not professionally troubled about recruiting lay people, who were clearly unable to evaluate the scientific validity or otherwise of their views, to their cause. I shall return to this theme in a moment. CONSEQUENCES OF HN-DISSIDENTS’ PUBLIC CAMPAIGNING IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD Inevitably, millions of people subjected to dissident views in TV programmes and their favourite broadsheets, would respond in a variety of different ways. To my knowledge, no scientific surveys were undertaken to analyse what impact such views had on people belonging to high-risk groups in developed countries. The anecdotal evidence I gathered from discussions on public and private emailing lists, subscribed to by people with HIV/AIDS, is that indeed (some) HIV positive people stopped practising safer sex, rehsed to inform their sexual partners about their HIV status, and also changed their treatment regimes. I vividly recall arguing on such a private mailing list with an HIV infected gay man about the issue of safer sex. He argued that there is little reason to use condoms because AIDS clearly is not infectious (as HIV dissident Professor Duesberg had shown), and that therefore he would not allow the ‘establishment’ to take the fun out of his sex life. Members of the dissident group actively encouraged his stance at the time. On an infected individual’s website, several years ago, I was thanked for providing arguments critical of zidovudine mono-therapy (the early first-line therapeutic response to AIDS targeting the causative agent directly). The individual strongly believed that he owed his life to my publications. Based on arguments I provided, he decided not to follow his doctor’s advice to begin taking zidovudine. It turned out that my scepticism about a ‘hit HIV early, hit it hard’ with zidovudine mono-therapy treatment strategy was confirmed years later by more sophisticated clinical research. Again, coincidentally, and luckily for me, my dissident convictions led to the publication of arguments and conclusions that history confirmed as correct. - My own anecdotal evidence is supported by similar reports gathered in an article by the San Francisco based AIDS F0undati0n.l~ What is important, however, is that such publications as well as the high profile activities of dissident scientists such as Duesberg influenced a lay public’s decisions with regard to treatment regimes and HIV protective behaviours. I think that while one can legitimately question whether scientists should engage in such public campaigning and posturing at a time when their argument is considered lost
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by their peers, there is no good reason to deny such professionals the opportunity to have their say publicly if they so wish, provided at least one condition is met: those infected individuals who make choices such as those described must be aware of the fact that the views expressed by dissidents are those of a very small minority of scientists. They must fully understand that the odds of these views being correct are miniscule at best. This does not contradict my earlier claim that lay people are unable to understand or evaluate the validity or otherwise of dissident views. My point is that on a more basic level they must understand how exceedingly small the number of professionals is who hold dissident views. In that sense, their decision to adopt the dissident stance is very much an autonomous choice.’’ It is a choice that is authentically their own. It is a considered choice that results in such individuals rejecting the advice of mainstream health promotional programmes. It is a considered choice to reject mainstream physicians’ advice. Arguably, therefore, the responsibility for their decisions, actions and the consequences of those decisions and actions, is largely their own.16 THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONTEXT A number of important empirical facts change the moral evaluation of dissident activities when looked at from a developing country, and in particular a Southern African context. Unlike in the developed world, the vast majority of people in developing countries are neither able to evaluate the validity of dissident claims, nor do they understand how small the number of professionals who support such views actually is. - I mentioned some salient facts about the scope of the epidemic in South Africa in my introductory remarks. Let me add a few pieces of additional information: in the year 2000, between 4.7 and 6 million of 40 million South Africans were reported to be HIV i n f e ~ t e d .A ’ ~ 1999 study of HIV infections among women seeking assistance in the country’s antenatal clinics registered prevalence rates between 5.2% and 32.2%, depending on the province in question. Some African governments, such as that of Uganda, have responded with mass education campaigns and attempts to increase access to essential AIDS drugs to as many of their infected citizens as possible. Not so the South African government. The main reason is that the country’s president, Mbeki, has lent his support to HIV dissident views. He has campaigned both publicly and behind the scenes to justify his government’s policy of not providing essential AIDS drugs to the majority of South Africa’s infected citizens. While Mbeki has prevaricated on this issue, the subsequent quotes from speeches he gave suggest strongly that HIV dissident views are at the core of his government’s response to the AIDS crisis in the country: Thus it happens that others who consider themselves to be our leaders take to the streets carrying their placards, to demand that because we [black people] are germ carriers, and human beings of a lower order that cannot subject its [sic] passion to reason, we must perforce adopt strange opinions [such as mainstream views on HIV and AIDS], to save the depraved and diseased people from perishing from self-inflicted disease. ... Convinced that we are but natural-born, promiscuous carriers of germs, unique in the world, they proclaim that our continent is doomed to an inevitable mortal end because of our unconquerable devotion to the sin of 1ust.18
202 The director of the country’s HIV/AIDS Law Project, Mark Heywood commented that these views “appear to describe those who believe AIDS is a virologically caused, mostly sexually transmitted disease that can be medically contained, as stigmatising and demeaning black people.”‘’ The ANC’s national leadership regurgitated these views in a lengthy document, taking a strongly HIV-dissident stance: For their part, the Africans believe this story, as told by their friends. They too shout the message thdt - yes, indeed, we are as you say we are! Y e s we are sex-crazy! Y e s we are diseased! Yes, we spread the deadly HIVirus through our uncontrolled heterosexual sex! In this regard, yes we are different from the US and Western Europe! Yes, we, the men, abuse women and the girl-child with gay abandon! Yes, among us rape is endemic because of our culture! Yes, we do believe that sleeping with young virgins will cure us of Aids! Yes, as a result of all this, we are threatened with destruction by the HIV/Aids epidemic! Yes, what we need, and cannot afford because we are poor, are condoms and anti-retroviral drugs! Help! ... Scare mongering ... is condemning millions of our own people to ill-health, disability and death because of a refusal to recognise the critical importance of the diseases of poverty and other illnesses that afflict our people, including STDs. This is done to sustain a massive political-commercial campaign to promote anti-retroviral drugs. ... Strange as it may seem, given what our friends tell us about the Virus everyday, nobody has seen it, including our friends. Nobody knows what it looks like.
South African academic Mandisa Mbali argues, quite convincingly, that while modem AIDS activism is concerned about access to treatment, Mbeki as a post-colonial African leader is fighting a different political battle, trying to assert an ‘African Renaissance‘ in response to racism, apartheid and colonialism.20He also went on the record in Time magazine stating, “YOUcannot attribute immune deficiency exclusively to a vi~ ~ 1 s .In ” ~parliament ‘ question time, he asked, “How can a virus cause a syndrome?”22 These views are mirrored in statements made by his health minister, which slam mainstream scientists and pharmaceutical companies for advocating anti-retroviral drugs “because they have a vested interest in doing There have been some, albeit inconclusive, indications that the author of the ANC document was Mbeki himself, because the embedded electronic signature of the document traces it back to: ‘Author: Thabo Mbeki’, and ‘Com any: Office of the President’, as an investigative report in a local newspaper revealed.2 B What these quotes suggest, is that Western dissident views have seemingly persuaded the powerful president of the developing country with the world-wide largest reported number of AIDS cases, to support their take on HIV and AIDS. The former president of the country’s Medical Research Council called Mbeki’s activities and views on this matter a “national ~candal.”’~ Mbeki established a presidential advisory panel stacked with dissidents and accompanied by some mainstream scientists, at great financial cost to the country. The panel’s deliberations led nowhere. Its establishment betrayed a gross misunderstanding of the process of scientific inquiry. Mbeki hoped to facilitate some sort of consensus or compromise between dissidents and mainstream scientists, as if the question of scientific truth was a matter of democratic consensus finding. What is of greater interest for our purposes, however, is how the dissidents used their elevated status (that is, of someone appointed to the presidential advisory panel) to influence public discussions in South Africa. Mbeki, who during 2002 apparently had another conversion and seemed more prepared to accept mainstream views on AIDS, reportedly instructed his health ministry to write to the dissidents and request that they refrain from signing their public statements as members of his advisory This is one
203 of many instances where dissidents use their affiliations (in this case, their membership in Mbeki’s expert panel) to boost their credibility. A few characteristic quotes that dominated the print media for months are as follows. Professor Sam Mhlongo, head of family medicine at the Medical University of South Africa is a member of the dissident group. Interestingly, at the time of writing he had not published a single peer-reviewed original paper based on empirical research on AIDS.27His main line of attack, unsurprisingly, is that Nevirapene, a drug proven to work, and recommended by both the WHO as well as UNAIDS because it reduces the likelihood of the mother-to-child-transmission of HIV from an infected pregnant woman, “is a notoriously very toxic drug.” He insists that HIV has “never in the history of the AIDS era been isolated.”28Dissident presidential panellist David Rasnick, from the USA, declared in interviews with local newspapers that “Africans are suffering and dying from the same things they have been suffering and dying from for generations before AIDS. They are not suffering and dying from something new called AIDS.” He is also reportedly convinced that “AIDS was neither contagious, sexually transmitted or caused by HIV and that anti-AIDS drugs accelerated death or made people sick with AIDS.” Utilising the sensitivities of South Africans with regard to the issue of apartheid, he claims that “South Africans were now being ruled by the ‘tyranny’ of orthodox science in the same way as the country’s white minority leaders under apartheid.”29Rasnick stressed his membership in Mbeki’s expert panel in his letters to editors of local newspapers. ETHICAL ISSUES Central to my discussion of ethical concerns is a statement made by Art Amman, head of Global Strategies for HIV Prevention. He said, “after reviewing the volumes of communication having to do with Duesberg disciples, personally listening in court for two days to these individuals, and surveying the damage they are invoking, I am trying to reach some conclusions and think about a rational approach to limiting their future damage and infl~ence.”~’ There are various ethical issues that should be raised with regard to the dissidents’ activities in South Africa, as well as the country’s president’s obvious failing to engage in a process of due diligence, before he decided on the country’s response to what is probably the most serious health disaster in South Africa’s history. It seems useful to begin by depicting how democratic developed societies responded to dissident views: dissidents were allowed to have their say in professional journals, and, as we have seen, in the mass media. The latter is a questionable strategy for a professional to pursue academic grievances, but clearly democratic liberal values at the heart of these societies permitted the dissidents’ publicity-seeking activities to go ahead. What were the ethical reasons for this? Undoubtedly, they had much to do with the attitudes so eloquently stated in John Stuart Mill’s treatise On Liberty: “if all mankind minus one were of one opinion, mankind would not be more justified in silencin that one person, than he, if he had the power would be justified in silencing mankind.”gFWhat were Mill’s arguments in support of this view?
204 We have now recognised the necessity to the mental well-being of mankind of freedom of opinion, and freedom of the expression of opinion on four distinct grounds (.. .): first, if any opinion is compelled to silence, that opinion may, for all we can certainly know, be true. To deny this is to assume our own infallibility. Secondly, though the silenced opinion may be an error, it may and very commonly does, contain a portion of truth (...). Thirdly, even if the perceived opinion be not only true, but the whole truth; unless it is suffered to be, and actually is, vigorously and earnestly contested, it will, by most of those who receive it, be held in the manner of a prejudice, with little comprehension or feeling of its rational grounds. (. ..) Fourthly, the meaning of the doctrine itself will be in danger of being lost, or enfeebled, and deprived of its vital effect on the character and conduct: the dogma becoming a mere formal profession, inefficacious for good, but cumbering the ground, and preventing the growth of any real and heartfelt conviction, from reason or personal e x p e r i e n ~ e . ~ ~
While these are powerful reasons to legally permit scientists to espouse minority views, there are good ethical reasons for why they ought to voluntarily refrain from campaigning publicly for their views. These reasons have to do with their moral obligations to the public, as professionals. Before 1 get to those reasons, however, let us have a closer look at Mill’s arguments. He is effectively stating that we should allow freedom of expression because otherwise we would run the risk of suppressing a view that could have been the correct one, or it could have contained a kernel of truth. In addition, those holding the mainstream view could quite possibly hold it without critical reflection on it, and without knowing why they are holding it. In fact, the mainstream paradigm may merely become a formality repeated by us without good reason. While all these arguments, to my mind, tip the scales in favour of freedom of academic expression in professional journals, according to the standard rules of academic debate, they are too weak to serve as a justification for the type of campaigning described in this article. After all, whether or not the dissident view is erroneous (Mill’s first point) will never be settled in the letters’ pages of daily newspapers in South Africa, or on talk-back radio shows in the US or on TV programmes in Canada or Australia. Even looked at from a dissident perspective, it seems obvious that the objective of ‘winning the day’ cannot be achieved by winning over the lay-public. As to Mill’s last point, I am happy to concede that I trust mainstream science’s findings sufficiently to accept them as prima facie correct. It is unreasonable to expect anything other of me. The odds are highly stacked against minority views of the sort that concentration camps did not exist in Nazi Germany (as proposed frequently by holocaust deniers), that high concentrations of vitamin C kill cancer, or indeed that your traditional stage-healing of a quadriplegic by a Reverend belonging to a charismatic church ever took place. PROFESSIONALISM AND THE PUBLIC GOOD Most professions are characterised, among other things, by the fact that their members pledge, usually publicly during graduation ceremonies, to abide by codes of ethics. Invariably these codes of ethics contain pledges promising to serve the interests of clients or patients and the public good.33334 Indeed, even most modem codes of professional ethics reflect the religious derivation of the term professionalism, meaning to profess publicly to serve the public good. I think that these professional ethical obligations toward the public may well serve as a factor limiting professionals’ claims to freedom of (public) speech. In the case under consideration, the argument in support of this view could be sketched like this: scientists among the HIV dissidents know that among their peers the
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number of people sharing their views is minuscule at best. While this is not proof of the wrongness of their views, it provides the dissenters with strong professional ethical reasons to refrain from running high-profile public campaigns designed to sway a lay-public after their failure to convince the professional public. While there are examples in history where minority views in scientific matters turned out to be correct, dissidents have good historical reasons to acknowledge that this is not usually the case. If dissident views had indeed been systematically censored by a mainstream HIV science conspiracy, arguably the dissidents would have been entitled to alert the public to this fact and aim to have the professional process of anonymous, unbiased peer review re-established. However, it is important to note that this has not been the case. Dissidents had plenty of opportunities to argue their case in professional journals. Afier a process of due diligence, health authorities in most countries have begun health promotion campaigns designed to inform their citizens about the risks of unsafe sex, and the benefits of HIV testing, given the availability of life-extending (if not life-saving) treatments. The public interest is not served by dissidents' attempts to convince the lay-public that their views are correct and that AIDS is not contagious, HIV is not the cause of AIDS, or indeed that HIV does not exist at all. For developed countries there is some anecdotal evidence that members of high-risk groups have taken dissidents' views sufficiently seriously to change their AIDS related risk assessments, including stopping the use of condoms to prevent an infection. While the responsibility for such choices should be placed mostly on the shoulders of those individuals who made them, clearly HIV dissidents are not entirely innocent either. Without their publicity seeking behaviours, it is unlikely that many lay-people would have taken notice. Turning to South Africa, there is more than anecdotal evidence to suggest that the dissident activities had negative health consequences. The following excerpt was published in a local broadsheet. Nkululeko Nxesi, the national director of the National Association of People Living with HIV and AIDS, said his organisation was experiencing rejection of the message that HIV caused AIDS "on a daily basis". "At the end of the day, I think people will want to hear the news that HIV does not cause AIDS," he said. "It is affecting what we're doing. It's not even two steps back, it's like 10 steps back. And it was such a struggle to encourage people to engage in safer sex in the first place." AIDS Consortium director Morna Comell said that, while she did not have first-hand experience of rejection of the AIDS message, she had heard anecdotal reports of confusion. Recently a friend had told her how she had been involved in an educational discussion on HIV in KwaZulu-Natal, where people had asked why they needed to use condoms if HIV did not cause AIDS."
Winstone Zulu, an AIDS patient, recounts the undesirable consequences of the president's support for the dissident stance on AIDS. Zulu initially took antiretrovirals to maintain his health. After stopping the use of antiretroviral medications, his health deteriorated and he eventually went back on life-saving essential AIDS drugs. Zulu explains how Mbeki's tacit support for dissident views convinced him that they were right. "With Mbeki coming in, I believed it was the link I needed to believe this," he explains. "When I saw that Mbeki was doubting, I thought this was A 2002 representative HIV prevalence study, undertaken by the country's Human Sciences Research Council, reveals that condom use and behavioural changes toward safer sex are lower amongst people who either believe HIV is not the cause of AIDS or who admit to be uncertain about the viruses role in the causation of AIDS, when com-
206 pared to people who believe HIV is the cause of AIDS. The authors of this study conclude, “correct, unequivocal knowledge that HIV causes AIDS ... is strongly associated with self-reported behaviour change over the past few years as a response to the risk of HIV infection, condom use in the last sexual experience and discussion of HIV prevention with a partner.’737About one in five respondents reported doubts about the question of whether HIV causes AIDS. My argument thus far suggests that minority-view-holding professionals in the biomedical sciences have particular professional ethical obligations to refrain from campaigning publicly among lay audiences, for support for their professional views. These reasons have to do with the idea that professionals ought to serve the public good. The public good is not served by scientists whose views have been rejected by their peers, and who are trying to ‘win’ the scientifically lost case in the lay-public’s domain. It also seems professionally irresponsible to impress the ‘truth’ of one’s views on a lay-audience while knowing full well that this audience is not equipped to evaluate the scientific merits or otherwise of one’s arguments. - At the same time, of course, nothing should prevent professionals holding minority views in their field of expertise to make their case in professional journals, provided standard procedures of anonymous peer review have been followed. This is also in the public’s best interest, because it constitutes a sound procedure for testing and (re)-evaluating scientific hypotheses and theories. What counter arguments could be advanced against the position developed so far? Some might be worried that my proposal would lead us down a slippery slope toward general legally imposed restrictions of free speech placed upon professionals. There is little that can be said with regard to this argument, other than that there is no reason to assume that a society would move easily from a voluntary self-restriction to outlawing such freedom of speech. However, even consequentialists, possibly persuaded by my argument that the dissidents caused unacceptable harm to the public good, might be womed about the question of whether it is possible to put my proposal into action on an operational level. After all, while most scientists tend not to look for the media limelight immediately, many professional journals alert the mass media to latest findings by way of distributing their table of contents via email to subscribing journalists. Inevitably, health journalists will contact the authors for media comments. How should scientists respond to such calls? Perhaps one way of answering this question is to acknowledge that minority views can be held on a range of issues. Some such views may affect only small numbers of people, or if acted upon, may result in harmful but reversible consequences. Under such circumstances, while the scientists still ought to restrain themselves in their interactions with the media, the consequences of their information-sharing would lead only to limited negative consequences. However, in cases where potentially large numbers of people might make problematic choices influenced by ‘dissident’ scientists, one would hope to see such professionals acknowledge and stress in their interactions with journalists, that the vast majority of their colleagues does not share their views and that there is a fair chance that they might have got this one wrong. Certainly, dissident scientists should not actively go about spreading their views in the mass media. This undoubtedly would have made a difference in the case I have described. The public good would have been better served if the protagonists had acted according to the lines suggested. - The troublesome issue of how scientists should respond to the mass media’s exploitation of their work is, of course, not
207 limited just to the issue of minority-view scientists. Jon Beckwith demonstrates this nicely in his discussion of geneticists’ work on a putative ‘criminal chromosome’ and on the general public’s misconceptions generated by the mass media’s reports on published research.38 POLITICIANS AND THE PUBLIC GOOD The consequences of dissident scientists’ public campaigns were particularly grave in South Africa. The country’s president, after stumbling across dissident views on one of his travails on the Internet, seems to have made their views more or less his own. The consequences were disastrous by any interpretation of what the public good would have required the govemment of the country, with the largest reported number of HIV infections and AIDS cases, to do. The South African government did everything possible to delay the provision of essential AIDS drugs to the impoverished masses, relying on public sector healthcare delivery. Initially, the government insisted that essential AIDS drugs were too expensive. When prices came down the true dissident colours of the government became more obvious. It insisted, among other things, that AIDS drugs were poisoning South African Blacks39,that the drugs were not proven to be effective4’, and that it is doubtful that viruses cause disease syndromes. These views were mirrored by at least one provincial ANC health minister, who reportedly fired a hospital director in Mpumalanga province for providing a hospital room to a non-governmental organisation supporting rape survivors with counselling, clean clothes, and post exposure medication. The politician justified her decision with this statement: “The health and lives of our poor black people were placed under serious threat by this organisation which claimed to have their interests at heart.’I4’ In court cases brought about by treatment access activist groups, the government went so far as to misrepresent a scientist’s research findings in order to prevent a courtfinding requiring it to provide medication designed to drastically reduce the mother-tochild transmission of HIV. The author of the findings went out of his way to inform the court in an affidavit that the government’s summary of his work and the conclusions drawn from it do not reflect his views.42 The argument supporting my contention that the South African government failed its moral obligations towards the citizens of the country is easy to make, and similar to the case brought against the HIV dissidents. While it is true that politicians are not professionals and therefore have no professional ethical obligations toward the public, they have other ethical obligations stemming from their role as elected representatives of the people. Democratically elected governments are morally obliged to serve the needs and interests of their sovereign, that is, the citizens of the country.43The South African government clearly failed on this count. THE ROLE OF THE MEDIA South African news media behaved responsibly in this affair, by and large. The activities of the presidential advisory panel nonetheless dominated the newspapers for some time. However, with the exception of the letters’ pages of the Johannesburg daily The Star, the dissidents were provided with comparably little space to propagate their views.
208 Indeed, Mbeki and his government were subjected to a continuous barrage of scathing criticism. The Star provided a great deal of space for a public spat between a local academic and a US based dissident. The dissident was challenged to have himself injected with HIV if he was so convinced HIV is not causing the immunodeficiency. The publicity-seeking HIV dissidents succeeded yet again in getting into the world media limelight, because the challenge was reported widely, even in newspapers in as far away places as Singapore and Australia. Arguably, if the country,’s president had not lent his support to the dissident cause by way of inviting many dissidents on his advisory panel on AIDS, the US based scientists involved in the challenge would probably not have received any publicity. The letters editor of that same newspaper influenced the public debate by publishing over months, letters written by dissidents. This misled the reading public into believing that there is a major debate taking place, while really the local dissidents mobilised their few supporters in various countries. The question is whether daily newspapers with large scientifically illiterate audiences, have a responsibility to their readership not to publish scientifically internationally discredited views. It seems clear that the letters editor of the paper in question has failed basic rules of journalism ethics in this regard. THE ROLE OF THE MEDICAL PROFESSION Various responses to the challenges that the HIV dissidents and its high-placed supporters in South Africa’s national and provincial governments posed, emanated f?om the organised medical profession. The South African Medical Association intervened at the height of presidential denialism with a consensus statement, reading in parts44: Whilst SAMA welcomes any debate on health it is obliged to point out that the view that HIV may not cause AIDS has been thoroughly discredited by several recent scientific studies. This view is dangerous and its propagation may lead to cases of AIDS that may have otherwise been prevented.
The country’s two leading health sciences faculties of the universities of the Witwatersrand and Cape Town, issued public statements criticising the govemment for its flawed response to the AIDS crisis and its prevarications on the issue of what causes AIDS. The chairman of the South African Medical Association harshly criticised the government in a speech and press release, and went so far as to accuse it of committing genocide by acts of omission (to provide access to essential AIDS drugs to poor South Africans). Bioethicists in the country acted responsibly. Some of the leading bioethicists actively criticised the government’s stance, even organising a high-profile petition and press release demanding the re-instatement of the hospital director who was fired in Mpumalanga province for offering facilities to the rape survivor group. Some doctors in public sector hospitals worked hard to find ways to subvert govemment policies and regulations, and provide as many needy patients as is possible with access to essential AIDS drugs. The Medical Research Council published a report debunking Mr. Mbeki’s public questioning of AIDS statistics, declaring that AIDS is the number one cause of death in the country. Its president subsequently resigned, only to describe to a journalist from The Economist how he and other scientists were subjected to govemment threats and bullying. The magazine reported: “The scientist accuses the minister of threatening that he will be fired and ‘forgotten by history’ for opposing the government policy and statements on AIDS.” The scientist comments that the minister ‘‘is trying to overrule sci-
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ence with politics. It is very frightening.”45Jonathan Glover in his book Humanity - A Moral History of the 2dhCentury provides an excellent analysis of the psychological underpinnings of such government activities.46 It is fair to say that the South African organised medical profession’s response to the dissident saga, unlike its response to challenges such as the Biko death some 25 years ago4’, has been vigorous. In that sense, many public sector healthcare professionals’ responses to a typical dual-loyalties based conflict were settled not in favour of the government’s demands, but in favour of their patients. They took their professional codes of ethics and their public pledges to put their patients’ interests first seriously. CONCLUSION I have argued in this article that scientists holding minority views on particular issues affecting the general public should voluntarily refrain from campaigning for their views among the lay-public. The case described in some detail in this article demonstrates convincingly the great harm done by HIV dissident scientists to the well-being of people with HIV and AIDS all over South Africa. News media with large scientifically illiterate audiences have particular professional responsibilities toward their readers not to propagate such minority views. Governments should be particularly diligent in their evaluation of such minority scientists’ views and should be as a matter of principle very cautious in adopting such minority views when developing public policy.48 A possible way forward would seem to be the development of ethical guidelines similar to the World Medical Association’s Declaration of Helsinki by organisations such as the American Society for the Advancement of Science, the British Association for the Advancement of Science and others. Quite possible this could be a task for international umbrella organisations such as CIOMS to take on. These guidelines could develop frameworks for scientists interactions with the wider (lay-)public. If scientists digress, journalists, for instance, as well as politicians would have good reasons to be concerned about their activities and have good prima facie reasons to reject the advice rendered by such individuals. Science organisations could consider censoring publicly such publicity seeking scientists.
REFERENCES
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Duesberg PH. 1992. AIDS: acquired by drug consumption and other non-contagious risk factors. Pharmacologv and Therapeutics 5520 1-277 Shisana 0, Simbayi L. 2002. South Afiican National HIVPrevalence, Behavioural Risks and Mass Media -Household Survey 2002. Human Sciences Research Council: Capetown. Accessed online at http://www.duesberg.com, http://www.virusmyth.com on November 27,2002. Duesberg PH. 1987. Retroviruses as carcinogens and pathogens: expectations and reality. Cancer Research 47:1199-1220 Duesberg PH. 1989. HIV and AIDS: Correlation but not Causation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 86755-764. Duesberg PH. 1992. Op.cit. Duesberg PH, Rasnick D. 1998. The AIDS Dilemma: drug diseases blamed on a passenger virus. Genetica 10485-132. Duesberg PH. 1988. HIV is not the Cause of AIDS. Science 241:514, 517. Indeed, one of the dissidents, physiologist Robert Root-Bemstein published a book under this title. RootBemstein R. 1993. Rethinking AIDS: the tragic cost ofpremature consensus. Free Press: New York.
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Papadopulos-Eleopulos E, Turner VF, Papadimitrious JM. 1993. Is a positive Western Blot Proof of HIV Infection? Bio/Technology 11:696-707. 10 Schuklenk U, Mertz D, Richters J. 1995. The bioethics tabloids: How professional ethicists have fallen for the myth of tertiary transmitted heterosexual AIDS. Health Care Analysis 3:27-36. I ’ Eg. Overall C, Zion WP. 1991. Perspectives on AIDS. Ethical and Social Issues. Oxford UP: Ontario, Hayry H, Hayry M. 1987. AIDS now. Bioethics 1:339-356. Page B. 2003. The Murdoch Archipelago. Simon & Schuster: London. l 3 Baumann E, Bethell T, Bialy H, Duesberg PH, Farber C, Geshekter CL, Johnson PE, Maver RW, Schoch R, Stewart GT. 1995. AIDS Proposal: Group for the Scientific Reappraisal of the HIV/AIDS hypothesis Science 267 1080. 14 SF AIDS Foundation. HIV causes AIDS. Accessed online at http://www.sfaf.org/aboutsfa~outreach/il on November 15,2002 at 12:32pm. l 5 Feinberg J. 1986. The moral limits of the criminal law: harm to self. Oxford UP: New York. 16 Schuklenk U. 1998. Access to experimental drugs in terminal illness: ethical issues. Haworth: New York. Rensburg Dv, Friedman I, Ngwena C, Pelser A, Stein F, Booysen F, Adendorff E. 2002. Strengthening localgovernment and civic response to the HIVAIDS epidemic in South Africa. Centre for Health Systems Research and Development, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein. Forrest D, Streek B. Mbeki bumbles into another AIDS debate. Mail & Guardian October 28,2001 I9 Forrest D, Streek B. 0p.cit. 20 Mbali M. 2002. MbekiS Denialism and the Ghosts of Apartheid and Colonialismfor Post-apartheidpolicy making. httu://www.nu.ac.za/ccs/files/mbeki.Ddf Accessed on-line on June 02, 2003. 21 Karon T. ‘You Cannot Attribute Immune Deficiency Exclusively to a Virus’. Time September 11,2000. 22 South African Parliament Question Time. September 20,2000. 23 Staff Writer. Minister slams AIDS drug propaganda. Mail & Guardian November 08,2000. 24 Barrel1 H. Would the real AIDS dissident please reveal himself. Mail & Guardian April 19, 2002. 25 Sulcas A. Mbeki’s AIDS call alarms scientists. Sunday Independent March 18, 2000. 26 Underhill G. Mbeki’s AIDS torch shines on in cyberspace. Cape Argus August 15,2002 27 MedLine search undertaken on November 14,2002 28 Staff writer. Medunsa AIDS dissident ‘advises’ health minister. Mail & Guardian May 09,2002 29 Reuters news agency report. Africans aren’t dying of AIDS, dissident says. April 06,2001. Accessed online at http://www.iol.co.zdindex.php?set-id=l &click-id=l 3&artPid=qw9865716648 10B243 on November 14,2002, 14:25pm. 30 Sulcas A. 0p.cit. 3 1 Mill JS. 1859 (1960). On Liberty. JM Dent: London, 79. 32 Mill JS. Op.cit., 111-112. 33 Koehn D. 1994. The Ground ofProfessiona1 Ethics. Routledge: London. 34 Chadwick RF (ed). 1994. Ethics and the Professions. Ashgate: Aldershot. 35 Altenroxel L. AIDS debate may undermine youth sex habits. The Mercury September 24,2000. 36 Altenroxel L. Wish you were right says Mbeki’s AIDS man. The Star July 19,2002 37 Shisana 0, Simbayi L. 0p.cit. 38 Beckwith J. 2002. Making Genes -Muking Waves. Harvard University Press: Boston, chapter 8. 39 Farham B. Time for Manto to Resign. Mail & Guardian July 19, 2002. 40 Staff Writer. 0p.cit. 4’ Altenroxel L. Insubordinate doctor fights to keep working. The Star February 28, 2002 42 Prof Robin Wood’s second affidavit can be found at http://www.tac.org.za/Documents/MTCTCou~Case/af~davi~robinwoodreplyaf~davit.doc , Accessed on November 15,2002, 11:46am. 43 Singer P. 2002. One world: the ethics ofglobalization. Yale UP: New Haven. 44 SAMA. 2000. HIV causes AIDS. SAMJ 90:461. 45 Editorial. Leave them be: South African scientists deplore their government’s meddling. The Economist April 06,2002, p 77. 46 Glover J. 1999. Humanity - A Moral History of the 20‘* Century. Jonathan Cape: London. 47 McLean GR, Jenkins T. 2003. The Steve Biko Affair: A Case Study in Medical Ethics. Developing World Bioethics 3: 77-95.
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48 I am grateful to my research assistant Vernon Naidoo for tracing relevant dissident quotes in the newsmedia, a$ well as Mandisa Mbali, Lynne Altenroxel, Thofi S. Bishop, Edwin Cameron, Romi Fuller, Bonnie Steinbock and Tim Trengove-Jones for helpful assistance with andor feed-back to earlier drafts of this article. Richard Ashcroft and an anonymous reviewer critically and diligently reviewed this paper foT the Journal of medical ethics. Both are thanked for triggering changes of (and hopefully improvements to) this paper.
This is a preprint of an article accepted for publication by the “Journal of Medical Ethics” and may not, save under the fair dealing of the provision of the Copyright Designs and Patents Act (1988), be reproduced without the consent of the BMJ Publishing Group.
ETHICS, JUSTICE AND STATISTICS
J. L. HUTTON Department of Statistics, University of Wanvick, U.K. All scientists work with a code of practice, though for many this is implicit rather than explicit. We discuss various ethical theories. The possibility of following a code of ethics, whether the official one, or an alternative code, is dependent on being able to obtain knowledge and understand the world. Professional knowledge has to be based on inferences from limited information. Ethics and epistemology are interdependent: how we decide and act depends on what we think we know, and what we seek to learn depends on what our ethics deem important. Studies which are of poor scientific quality are not ethical, as misuse of resources is universally discouraged. Statistics provide the optimal methods for designing studies and making inferences, and thus ethical professional conduct requires individual or collective understanding of some statistical theory and practice. Treatment of infectious disease requires not only knowledge of good strategies, but also infra-structure and resources to deliver such strategies. A particular concern is the quality of the design of trials and surveys. Considering whether the poverty of a country should influence the choice of treatments or the interpretation of ethical codes leads us to issues of justice and politics. Collectively owned, multi-professional work requires each of the various professions to take responsibility for the conduct of the research, and the impact that it might have. Statisticians share important responsibilities in maintaining ethical medical research in all countries. ETHICS The International Statistical Institute's Declaration of Professional Ethics (1985) recognises that statisticians collaborate with many other professions throughout the world. Therefore, it is important to be aware of the variations in cultural and ethical systems. I take 'ethics' to be the investigation of ideas of reasoning concerning concepts such as good, duty, responsibility, honour, choice, freedom, and the foundations and logical implications of these concepts. Applied ethics and morality, which address issues of actions in relation to human and other lives, environment and law, are the 'technology' of the 'science' of ethics. Four main ethical theories are commonly discussed by philosophers: deontological, consequential, utilitarian and virtue ethics. The relation between these theories and the various religions in not discussed. However, as we are concerned about disease, I expect the reader's religious understanding of suffering and the appropriate response to it to influence their interpretation. Aristotle addressed the nature of a good life, and declared that virtue is primary. The person who lives a virtuous life, who thinks and does what is good, is happy. Character is primary. Other concepts, such as duty, freedom and contentment are explicable in terms of virtue. Kant's imperative is to do what is right, to act in such a way that you would be willing to have others required to act in the same way. Duty is primary, hence this forms 'deontological ethics'. In contrast to ethics as a
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reflection of the person acting, or as intrinsic to particular actions, consequentialism evaluates actions in terms of their consequences. Mill extended this focus on outcomes by using the language of science: actions which maximise utility, or the happiness of the most people, are the right or just actions. Statistical decision theory provides a calculus which combines the probabilities, or risks, of events with the values, whether benefits or harms, and indicates the best course of action. Autonomy is a very widely used expression in western discussion of ethics. In medical ethics, autonomy is a dominating concept. It is based on the assumption that the rights of an individual person must be the dominant concern in health, social and economic decisions. Autonomy is incoherent in many contexts, as a person's freedom to take advice and choose their actions is dependent on the resources and opportunities within which they live. If there is no doctor or nurse, a person cannot rely on medical advice about or treatment of cancer. The training of professionals requires co-operation of many institutions and appropriate use of taxes. The UK policy of recruiting nurses and teachers from developing countries, instead of addressing the reasons for withdrawal of UK citizens from these professions, affects the 'autonomy' of people in other countries. Without drugs, or without food, focusing concern on preserving a patient's autonomy is paternalism expressed as abdication of responsibility. Infectious diseases, especially highly contagious infectious diseases, require responses which are not driven by a concern for doctors' or patients' individual rights as quarantine and vaccination are essentially communal in action. In Toronto, a doctor who chose to ignore requests for staff exposed to SARS to quarantine themselves spread the virus to many other people, some of whom died. His action respected his autonomy, but can easily be demonstrated to be immoral within deontological, utilitarian and virtue ethics. To paraphrase Mill, 'your autonomy in hand-waving stops short of my nose.' Tolerance is a dominating concept in discussions of cultural and religious differences, but is only effective when there is already agreement on basic values. In the UK and France, female genital mutilation is illegal, and cultural groups are forbidden this practice. Religions that believe certain offences require the death of the offender find such practices are not tolerated in many European countries. Not all cultural or religious differences can be resolved by tolerance, as any woman who has travelled and worked widely will know. Autonomy and tolerance are practical, subsidiary 'virtues', as they rely on secure social conditions and primary ethics. Such ethics are convenient for the rich and intellectually lazy. Trust is essential for professional-client and doctor-patient relationships. This then requires particular kinds of society and judicial systems. Some societies do not allow women to consult male doctors. Instead, the husband or father will consult the doctor, and described the symptoms. Implicitly, if not explicitly, the society believes that male doctors automatically defile a women by hearing her symptoms, or that men cannot be trusted not to molest women, even men who are doctors. Other societies assume that, in general, professionals can be trusted not to abuse their position.
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JUSTICE Justice is the fair or equitable treatment of people, and the use of authority to maintain what is right. It is another technological aspect of ethics, and requires evidence on which to base judgments of equality of treatment. Judicial decisions reveal the ethics of the judges and systems of law. With vaccination of children, a judicial system might have to consider the competing claims of mother, father, child and community, and hence rely on ethical theories that provide methods for choosing between people’s desires. In England, women and men are theoretically equal. Judgements in rape cases evaluate the reality of this ethic. In the 1980s, three men broke into a house, and tied up two men there. Two of them then viciously raped and buggered a young woman, though the older man tried to stop them. The older man was given a five-year prison sentence for stealing a video-recorder. The rapists were given less than two years imprisonment. Other judges have given lenient sentences so that the rapists’ careers won’t be too disrupted. Material possessions and men were rated higher than a woman‘s life. In medical negligence cases, the focus is usually on a single claimant. The collective impact of such cases has affected the practice of medicine in both the UK and the USA, which is not entirely positive. Excessively defensive medicine drives up costs, discourages professionals and can lead to harm. Often expensive technological interventions are presumed to be beneficial, without debate about the evidence used to evaluate the danger of not intervening. In a tax-funded system, the methods chosen to pursue and evaluate claims affect how much money is diverted from other health care uses. A court-case against Nelson Mandela, as President of South Africa, by multinational pharmaceutical companies, who objected to the use of cheap generic HIV drugs, illustrates the dominance of narrow utilitarianism in many countries. Claims that the USA is the defender of individual liberty and well-being ring hollow when US companies can inflict great damage with legal impunity, such as in the Bhopal disaster; the Kyoto agreement is ignored; or when the government erects trade barriers for steel or threatens the EU with trade sanctions because EU citizens are given food labels which allow them to choose whether to accept GMO products. Such judgements imply that actions that threaten the profits of the wealthy are deemed unjust - and unethical? Such narrow utilitarianism looks like the ethics of the tyrant: ‘might is right’; my life is far more important than yours. George Bush has criticised Europe for objecting to genetically modified organisms; he supports the claim that these agricultural products are intended to address hunger. However, the stated aims of Monsanto, a major player in the GMO field, indicate that ‘maximise my profit’ ethics are the basis of their strategy: “The business logic of sustainable development is that population growth and economic development will apply increasing pressure on natural resource markets. These pressures, and the world’s desire to prevent the consequences of these pressures if unabated, will create vast economic opportunity - when we look at the world through the lens of sustainability we are in a position to see current - and foresee impending - resource market trends and imbalances that create market needs. We have further focussed this lens on the resource market of water and land and there are markets -in which there are predictable sustainability challenges and therefore opportunities to
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create business value.. . Monsanto‘s Water and Aquaculture business, like its seed business, is aimed at controlling vital resources necessary for survival, converting them into a market and using public finances to underwrite the investments. A more efficient conversion of public goods into private profit would be difficult to find.. . “The right to water is the right to life.” (Monsanto Strutegypuper on water Report, 1991) The choice of ethical framework and its judicial implementation is critical in addressing planetary emergencies in health and water. Any policy that aims to limit the spread of infectious diseases in the developing world will be affected by conflicts between justice based on economically defined utilitarianism, and deontological or virtue-based ethics. Using poor populations as test beds for drugs, or their lands for storing hazardous wastes, has been described as exploitation of poverty. The assumptions that states make need to be made explicit. Listening to the language of most northern states, we hear utilitarianism: it drives the reasoning of politicians and economists, with concern for economic indicators overriding most other considerations. Here, the people whose happiness is to be maximised are defined to be ‘our shareholders‘ or ‘our race’ or ‘our state‘. Extended use of the metaphor of control of decisions by a market provides a favourable environment for ethics based on autonomy. People are presumed to be able to buy their health and to select their ethical codes. Those who believe that justice includes consideration of human rights - or basic human needs - will advocate ethical and judicial systems that aim to ensure a basic level of existence and development. In order to be fair, we need to know how communities live, what resources and opportunities they have. Deciding how countries and peoples are faring socially is very difficult. What can, and should be measured, and the challenges of respecting regional differences while obtaining comparable development indices is comprehensively addressed by Lievesley (2001). Statisticians have an important role in defining and refining, and statistical ethics states a duty to colleagues of support and information. INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY Some of the ethical challenges of research into treatment for infectious diseases in developing countries were extensively debated as a result of placebo controlled trials of anti-retroviral treatment to reduce mother-child transmission of HIV (Hutton, 2000). The arguments about the ethical factors to be considered depended substantially on the question the researchers chose to address and their view of evidence. The scope of many of the issues raised about the ethics of medical research is determined by how narrowly or broadly the research question is phrased, and which codes of ethics are considered. The debate started from the questions ‘what is appropriate care for control groups‘ of one drug aimed at one aspect of one disease, as placebo controlled trials were run in developing, but not developed countries. Initially debate focussed on which study designs, and what analyses and assessments of risk were best, as the best scientific methods were seen as the most ethical. But the quality of evidence required should be evaluated in terms of the research question and the social context (Ashcroft et a1 1998). For example, what are the prospects of an HIV free infant whose mother dies of AIDS? The value of preventing mother-child transmission will depend on nations’ willingness to care for orphans. If the appropriate control is the local standard of care, questions arise on the possibility of
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changing the costs or choice of treatment, or different methods of control of disease. This extends the debate to justice, politics and economics. Claims that the purpose of trials is to benefit poor nations can be evaluated by the prices set for access to the products being investigated. Local standards of care are a reflection of culture, trade laws and history. National infrastructure and education affect the options available for the control of epidemics. A universal standard of ethics is possible; this does not require the application of absolute principles to social questions (Resnick 1998). Infra-structural limitations in Africa raise further practical and ethical challenges. For example, following up patients with HIV or tuberculosis, to ensure that the full treatment is taken or to assess effectiveness of interventions, is difficult when many have no recognisable address. Solutions such as patient-held records, or visits to informal settlements have been proposed. However, without considerable care, these researchfocused solutions can put patients at risk. In informal settlements in South Africa, a visit to a dwelling by a stranger, particularly a stranger associated with health or social care, brings stigma, and often leads to the assumption that the residents have HIV. Patient-held records could facilitate surveys of disease prevalence, but with limited literacy, patients might ask others to explain the content of the records, and thus reveal information that they would prefer to be confidential. Violence against people with certain diseases is not UnknOWn.
Concern to assess and limit the spread of HIV means that pregnant women are routinely screened for HIV. As well as being relevant to the care of the infant, this information is potentially important for the woman's partner. A conference presentation of results of a Kenyan study revealed that about a quarter of HIV positive women informed their husbands. This led to a lively debate about the risks to women of revealing their HIV status, and the responsibility of health care personnel to patients' relatives. Some men claimed it was irresponsible of the women not to reveal their status, others recognised that the fear of violence and being left with no home and support was well founded. The effectiveness of social and judicial systems also affect the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Most teenagers surveyed in Malawi knew that abstinence was the best preventive method, and about the use of condoms. However, the majority of girls who had had intercourse by the age of 17 had been forced. In Uganda, secondary school education is not free, so girls can be faced with the choice between avoiding the risk of HIV or education, as prostitution is their only source of money. A judicial system that minimises the injustice of rape (as mentioned for UK) both reflects and endorses cruel treatment of girls and women. Breast-feeding by HIV positive women is a further difficult issue. The risk of transmission of the virus has to be assessed within circumstances often difficult for both the mothers and the researchers. Bottle-feeding without access to clean water and income to buy sufficient milk powder carries very high risks, and the risks of breast-feeding while receiving ART need to be studied. The evidence needed to make a sensible decision includes not only the risks of transmission and bottle-feeding, but also knowledge of the pressures which multinational companies will assert to maximise their profits. The promotion of milk powder has long been a matter of contention, and developed countries have already begun to restrict access to water. Before advising a mother not to breast-feed, doctors ought to assess the local economic situation. The choices of governments, corporations and citizens on the legitimacy ('justice) of markets
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in services such as water and education are part of the moral process of addressing epidemics. The health of a nation is linked to the education and well-being of women, as mothers and wives are generally responsible for hygiene and nutrition. Infectious disease epidemics are more serious where there is poverty, as poor access to food and water allows infections to lead to disease and to death. Malaria is responsible for more than a million deaths a year, and leads to poverty, as it limits children's education and the strength of adults. Science driven by state-based utilitarian ethics ignores non-profit making diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis in other states. Malaria research is neglected; the disease affects mainly poor people in countries that are unlikely to buy treatments at a price including a large profit margin. In 2001 at Doha, all World Trade Organisation members, including the United States of America, agreed that public health concerns should trump patent rights. But since then, the U.S.A. has consistently obstructed negotiations to provide access to affordable medicines for poor countries (Source: Oxfam UK). A strategy to deal with the stated-based utilitarianism on its own terms would be to emphasis the loss of consumers, or profit generators, arising from the death of the middle generations through AIDS, and loss of hture consumers who succumb to malaria and tuberculosis. The only epidemic capable of limiting population growth is HIV, as its main effect is on the active adult population. Non-governmental organisations have started to make use of commercial pressure to achieve humanitarian ends. CONCLUSION Attitudes to debts incurred in the knowledge of high risk of default, and assumptions that governments will protect Western banks are part of the moral environment within which we consider how to control epidemics. I suggest that discussion of ethical issues in infectious disease epidemiology leads to questions about world politics and concepts of states and justice. It is essential to look beyond traditional medical ethics that sees only the doctor-patient dyad, so that there is collaboration between a wide range of professionals, if infectious diseases are to be understood and controlled. REFERENCES R.E. Ashcroft, D.W. Chadwick, S.R.L. Clark, R.H.T. Edwards, L. Frith and J.L. Hutton. (1998) Implication of socio-cultural contexts for the ethics of clinical trials. In Health Services Research Methods: A guide to best practice (Ed. N. Black, J. Brazier, R. Fitzpatrick and B. Reeves. London. Brit Med Jou. 108-116. J.L. Hutton. (2000) Ethics of medical research in developing countries: the role of international codes of conduct. Stat. Meth. Med. Rex, 9:185-206. International Statistical Institute. Declaration of Professional Ethics. Voorburg, 1985. D. Lievesley. (2001) Making a Difference: A Role for the Responsible International Statistician. The Statistician. 50:367-406. D.B. Resnik. (1998) The ethics of HIV research in developing nations.
Bioethics, 12:286-306.
IS ACCESS TO HIV/AIDS TREATMENT A HUMAN RIGHT? LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE BRAZILIAN EXPERIENCE IVAN FRANCA-JUNIOR,MD Ph.D. Faculty of Public Health, University of SBo Paulo, Brazil INTRODUCTION Some may feel puzzled trying to answer such a question without any historical and practical experience in regards to AIDS dynamics in developing countries. This article tries to give some input by reviewing the history of the AIDS epidemic in Brazil: a) health impacts; b) governmental and societal responses; c) the Brazilian AIDS national drug policy and d) human rights analysis of the issue.
AIDS IMPACT ON HEALTH
In Brazil, the first AIDS cases were reported exactly twenty years ago. As of December 2002, 257.780 cases have been reported. At the beginning, the Brazilian epidemic was very similar to the USA, affecting mainly homosexuals, IV drug users (IDU) and people who had received transfusion of blood or blood products. This is no longer true. Since 1993, heterosexual contact is the major HIV/AIDS exposure category in Brazil (MinistCrio da Saude 2002). ‘
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(10.1%). Out of the total, 51 (5%) were living in orphanages and other institutions (Doring, Franqa-Junior, Stella 2003). Another ongoing study among adolescents living with HIVIAIDS in Slo Paul0 has indicated that fear of stigma and discrimination has a big impact on disclosure, access to care and impact on various areas of their social and educational lives, increasing their isolation and vulnerability to AIDS as well to other rights violations (ECVBrazil2002). Additional health and social impacts due to AIDS may arise if incidence increases in poor people, and heterosexual men and women and populations of small cities are not looked after. Brazil is a middle-income country (US$ 4,350 in 1999) with a relatively low AIDS prevalence (0.65%), but its epidemic has proven to severely impact the population, and to be multiform, complex and far from being resolved (UNAIDS 2002). SOCIETAL AND GOVERNMENTAL RESPONSES TO THE EPIDEMICS
In 1983, a Program on AIDS was established in the state of S l o Paulo, the first in Latin America, joining a group of public health professionals to work with epidemiological surveillance. It was a new disease, without an established cause. At that time this new disease was not even nominated as AIDS. “Gay pest” and “Gayrelated Immunodeficiency Disease” were common names, all of them with a stigma attached (Kalichmann 1993). Two years later, the National Program on STD/AIDS was created. The novelty was that the members of these programs were former political and social activists against military dictatorship (1961-1985), as well as committed and well-trained public health professionals. They were able to establish important national and international alliances in the governmental and societal responses (MinistCrio da Saude 2003). According to Daniel and Parker (1991:26) “The epidemic started its development atprecisely the same time as Brazilian society was tiying to take thefirst steps toward re-establishing a participative democracy, after two decades of an authoritarian regime.” That is why we could see the emergence of an organized civil society, which has played a major role. In 1985, the Support Group for the Prevention of AIDS (GAPA) was founded in Slo Paulo, which was followed by the establishment of other GAPAs in many states in Brazil. In 1986, another important group was founded, the Associaq5o Brasileira Interdisciplinar de AIDS (ABIA 2003) by Betinho, Herbert Daniel, Richard Parker, among others. 0 Grupo pela Vidda was founded by Herbert Daniel and aimed at gathering together people living with HIVIAIDS, their friends and families. Many other groups were created, diversifying the scope of the activities and the populations targeted (Silva 1998, Grupo pela Vidda 2003). In Brazil, as opposed to the USA’s response mainly based on a gay community mobilization, social response occurred from the development of a variety of groups created to combat AIDS as their specific priority (Daniel, Parker 1991). These NGO have been developing various activities from prevention to rehabilitation. In the first decade, for instance, the NGOs pushed, successfully, members of the parliament to eliminate the commercialization of blood donation in 1988 (Constituinte proibe ... 1988). At that time they also pioneered the combat of AIDS associated stigma and discrimination (Silva 1998). They were important partners in contacting hard to reach communities, promoting the use of condoms, HIV
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testing and the seeking of health care. They have also been at the forefront, pushing governments for the distribution of condoms for vulnerable populations. Nowadays, more than 200 NGOs are developing 1.780 projects with the Ministry of Health, which accounts for an investment of US$ 31 million (MinistCrio da Saude 2003). This long-standing, but sometimes contradictory partnership has allowed very creative and fruitful initiatives in the areas of public health and human rights. In the nineties, NGO focus changed (Galvlo 2002a). It emerged as transnational activism, pushing for global justice regarding the access to HIV/AIDS treatment, particularly antiretrovirals. It is important to mention that national, state and local governments have been pushed, through legal petitions and political pressure, for the distribution of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs. There were two remarkable moments in 1999 and 2000. There were rumors that the Brazilian government, due to rapid and important currency devaluation, was questioning the possibility of stopping the acquisition of AIDS related drugs. Important demonstrations were organised in many Brazilian cities by NGOs and health professionals. Eventually, the Federal Government gave up (Galvlo 2002a). In both years, the government expenditures on AIDS drugs were the highest, reaching 3.2% and 2.9% of the annual Ministry of Health’s budget, respectively. For 2003, expenses are at 1.87% (Ministerio da Saude 2003). After 20 years, the National AIDS Program has been recognized as an example of good interaction between governmental and non-governmental policies. Recently, the Brazilian National AIDS Program has been awarded the 2003 Gates Award for Global Health, a 1 million dollar prize (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 2003). According to Dr. William Foege, senior fellow at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Chairman of the Global Health Council’s Board of Directors, “Brazil has shown that with perseverance, creativity, and compassion, it is possible for a hard-hit county to turn back its AIDS epidemic“. And he added “Brazil is saving lives and saving resources at the same time, and that should be an inspiration to countries around the world.” Dr. Nils Daulaire, president and CEO of the Global Health Council, said, .‘the Brazilian National AIDS Program broke the logjam in the debate over AIDS treatment. Brazil showed the world that what was thought to be impossible - treating people with AIDS in a developing countv - was indeed possible in the context of a comprehensive AIDSprogranz, and that effective prevention und treatment efforts are enormously and mutually reinforcing.” ACCESS TO ARV DRUGS IN BRAZIL: PRODUCTION AND FREE DISTRIBUTION From 1991 on, the National AIDS Program has been distributing zidovudine (AZT) to AIDS carriers in the public health system (Passarelli 2001). Since then, a complex institution has been set up to ensure free access to HN/AIDS treatment. This policy includes: a) a network of public alternative care services (= 900 services); b) a national network of voluntary counseling and testing for HIV ( ~ 2 0 8services); c) a national network of laboratory support (HIV viral load: 73 laboratories; CD4+ cell count: 65 laboratories; HIV resistance testing: 12 laboratories); and a national ARV logistic control system in 424 dispensary units (Teixeira 2002).
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In 1993, Brazil started the production of the first AIDS drug (AZT) through a private company, followed by other governmental institutions. AZT was first synthesized in 1964 as a possible anticancer drug but it proved ineffective. Almost 30 years later, intellectual property rights no longer protected AZT. In 1996, a Federal Law established a comprehensive policy on HIV/AIDS treatment (Ministkrio da Saude 1996). This law was due to the persistent fight put up by community groups by bringing actions against their governments to ensure the right to treatment. Currently, Brazil is able to produce 8 out of 15 ARVs. These 8 ARVs are: didanosine (ddI), lamivudine (3TC), zidovudine (AZT), stavudine (d4T), zalcitabine (ddC), indinavir, nevirapine and the AZT+3TC associations in one single pill. FarManguinhos (a Federal Government Laboratory) produces, approximately, 6 out of 15 ARVs used in Brazil (Far-Manguinhos 2003). All of them have been tested and approved as regards bio-equivalence and licensed as generics. Six other companies and governmental laboratories can produce other ARVs as generics (Ministerio da Saude 2001). To accomplish such goals, it must be remembered that Brazil, so far, has not compulsorily licensed any drug. Brazil establishes a strategy of local production, respecting intellectual and property rights. According to GalvFio (2002b): “Brazil has threatened to break patents on certain antiretrovirals r f companies do not reduce prices. Such a measure, called compulsory licensing, would be admissible under Brazilian patent law, under certain circumstances. It must be emphasised, however, that despite such threats, and since Brazil implemented the TRIPS (trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights) agreement in 1996, compulsory licensing has not been applied, and no patent has been violated. Nonetheless, the threat has remained an important negotiating tool. For example, in February 2001, Brazil announced it was considering breaking patents for nelfinavir (Roche) and efavirenz (Merck) fi manufacturers did not reduce their prices. Negotiations ensued, and Merck agreed to reduce the price of efavirenz by 60%. Reductions offered for nelfinavir however were deemed inadequate.” Table 1 depicts the trajectory of expenditures figures in Brazil. Table 1 Public access to ARV therapy according calendar year and costs.
environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf
mdsfdfd mdsfdfd mdsfdfd mdsfdfd mdsfdfd mdsfdfd mdsfdfd
(Sources: Ministkrio da Saude 2001; Teixeira 2002)
In Table 2, we show some differences between the USA and Brazilian (Ministry of Health - MoH) policies regarding AIDS treatment (Teixeira 2002). Brazil has a cheaper program with a higher coverage and a more complete ARV scheme.
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Table 2 Comparison of US and Brazil policies on AIDS treatment. Parameters I MoH (Brazil) ** environment south asia south edfdf ADAP(USA)* sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf mdsfdfd Target HIV I Low Income Universal environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf mdsfdfd environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf mdsfdfd environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf mdsfdfd environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf mdsfdfd environment south asia south edfdf sdsdksdf skdfsd fksdjf mdsfdfd Aids Drugs Assistance Program ** Ministry ofskdfsd Health environment south* Source: asia south edfdf sdsdksdf fksdjf mdsfdfd Teixeira 2002
If Brazil had not established such a policy, expenditures could have reached, just for these 8 ARV drugs, the amount of R$1.325 billion! This would jeopardize any treatment effort. In 2003, unfortunately, the purchase of only 3 ARV drugs (Nelfinavir fi-om Roche, Lopinavir from Abbott and Efavirenz from Merck & Co.) have used up 63% (US$ 573 million) of the national ARV budget (MinistCrio da Sadde 2003). Brazilian government has just decreed, according to the WTO agreement on ARV generics, that “a patent can be compulsorily licensed for national emergencies or public purposes, (..) only for public non-commercial use (...) when attested that the patent holder, directly or by its representatives, does not fulfill the needs (Presidhcia da Repdblica 2003: l).” All these efforts have paid off. We have had major impacts by antiretroviral therapy policy from 1996 to 2001. Brazil has reduced AIDS mortality by 40-75%, morbidity by 60-80% and hospitalizations by 85%. It has also saved U$ 1.1 billion (Teixeira 2002). In regard to ARV treatment monitoring indicators, recent data indicate an overall adherence of 75.0% (CI 95% 73.1 - 76.9%) and primary HIV resistance of 6.6%. These values are similar or even better than developed countries (Nemes, Souza, Carvalho 2002; Bnndeiro et al. 2003) The Brazilian experience of AIDS treatment has shown that it is a viable strategy, even without international funding and any TRIPS violation. Despite its viability in Brazil, a question remains: Is access to AIDS treatment a human right? A HUMAN RIGHTS APPROACH TO AIDS TREATMENT ACCESS First of all, we must distinguish, in international human rights law, two different human rights characteristics (Mann, Gruskin, Grodin, Annas. 1999). There are some rights that are to be considered absolute. In other words, these human rights cannot be alienated for any reason. They are the right to life; not to be discriminated against; not to be tortured or punishedtreated in a degrading, cruel and inhumane way; not to be enslaved or submitted to servitude; not to be arrested for not fulfilling contractual obligations; non-retroactivity of criminal offences; to be recognized as a person by the judicial system; liberty of thought, conscience and religion. On the other hand, rights that could suffer derogation include the right to liberty, freedom of speech, property, movement, education, health and so on. One of the main issues surrounding AIDS treatment is the human rights conflict involving, on one side, the right to intellectual property (claimed by pharmaceutical
223 companies and the US government) and, on the other side, the right to life, right to health, and the right to not be discriminated against (claimed by AIDS activists and the governments of developing counties). As we can see, there are some absolute rights involved in such a conflict. Namely, the rights to life, and to not be discriminated against. Apart fiom this theoretical approach, Brazil and the USA have had some confrontations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) in regard to AIDS drugs patents. WTO accepted, in January 2001, a US government request for a discussion panel on the Brazilian patent law and its compatibility with the TRIPS agreement, specifically as related to the provisions on compulsory licensing. Brazil has received many manifestations of solidarity supporting its free-of-charge distribution of ARV drugs policy. More importantly, according to Galvao (2002b:3), “In April 2001, in what could be perceived as a sign of support for the Brazilian position, the 57th session of the UN Human Rights Commission approved a resolution, proposed by the Brazilian delegation, establishing access to medical drugs during pandemics-such as HIV/AIDS--as a basic human right. In June 2001, shortly before the UN General Assembly Special Session on HIV/AIDS, the USA withdrew the WTO panel against Brazil. In November 2001, the WTO, at its fourth ministerial conference, released a declaration allowing use of compulsory licensing in cases of national public-health emergencies. This declaration not only strengthened the Brazilian position but also suggested that the transnational movement for access to drugs for HIV/AIDS could lead to poor nations being able to acquire the necessary drugs.” In the UN Resolution, it is clearly stated that the UN Human Rights Commission: “Recognizes that access to medication in the context of pandemics such as HIV/AIDS is one fundamental element for progressively achieving the full realization of the right of everyone to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health” It is important to mention that this resolution was approved by a roll-call vote of 52 votes to none with 1 abstention. Finally, an agreement may have been reached by all countries, under WTO auspices, on 30 August 2003 (WTO 2003). Government members gathered in a WTO General Council meeting were able to find a common ground to break their standoff over intellectual property protection and public health. They agreed on legal changes that will make it easier for poorer countries to import cheaper generics made under compulsory licensing if they are unable to manufacture the medicines themselves. The document issued was called the Implementation of paragraph 6 of the Doha Declaration on the TRIPS Agreement and public health. Public health is a much more important matter than intellectual property rights. As Panitchpakdi (2003) put: “WTO Members recognize that the system that will be established by the Decision should be used in good faith to protect public health and, without prejudice to paragraph 6 of the Decision, not be an instrument to pursue industrial or commercial policy objectives”. The story of an effective international policy on HIV/AIDS treatment as a human right has just begun. Scientists, throughout the world, must join in the efforts to accomplish this goal. Without treatment, people living with HIV/AIDS are sent home to suffer and to die and no secondary prevention is possible with them. To treat is a human must and a technical need.
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ABIA.2003. Available at [2003 Sep 111 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Brazilian National AIDS Program Receives 2003 Gates Award for Global Health [online]. Seattle; 2003. Available at [2003 Sep 111 Brindeiro RM, Diaz RS, Sabino EC, Morgado MG, Pires IL, Brigido L, Dantas MC, Barreira D, Teixeira PR, Tanuri A,, The Brazilian Network for Drug Resistance Surveillance. Brazilian Network for HIV Drug Resistance Surveillance (HIV-BResNet): a survey of chronically infected individuals. AIDS, 17:1063-1069,2003 Brito AB, Castilho EA, Szwarcwald CL. AIDS e infecqlo pel0 HIV no Brasil: uma epidemia muldfacetada (AIDS and HIV infection in Brazil: a multifaceted epidemic). Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical 34(2): 207217,2000. Constituinte proibe toda comercializaqlo de sangue. Jornal do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, 1988 maio 18; cad. 1: 3. Daniel H, Parker R. Aids - A Terceira Epidemia. Slo Paulo: Iglu, 1991, p.2439. Dhalia C, Barreira D, Castilho EA. A AIDS no Brasil: situaqlo atual e tendhcias. Boletim epidemiol6gico de AIDS 2000 [online]. Brasilia (DF); 2000. Available at ~URL:http://www.aids.gov.br/udtv/boletim%5Fdez99%5Fjun00/aids~brasil.htm
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17.
> [2003 Sep 113 Doring M, Franqa-Junior I, Stella I. Relat6rio tCcnico final. Projeto Viver ou conviver com o hiv: um desafio para crianqas 6rf5s da aids. Port0 Alegre; 2003. ECI Brasil. Relat6rio preliminar. S l o Paulo; 2003 Far-Manguinhos. 2003. Available at [2003 Sep 111 Galvlo J. A politica brasileira de distribuiqgo e produqlo de medicamentos antiretrovirais: privilegio ou um direito? (Brazilian policy for the distribution and production of antiretroviral drugs: a privilege or a right?) Cad. Saude Publica, Rio de Janeiro, 18(1):213-219,jan-fev, 2002a. Galvlo J. Access to antiretroviral drugs in Brazil. Lancet, London, November 5, 2002b. Grupo pela Vidda. 2003. Available at [2003 Sep 111 Kalichman, A.O. Vigilincia epidemiol6gica de AIDS: recuperaqlo histdrica de conceitos e praiticas. S.P., 1993; DissertaqBo de mestrado / FMUSP. Mann J, Gruskin S, Grodin MA, Annas GJ. Health and Human Rights: a reader. Routledge: New Cork; 1999. MinistCrio da Saude. Lei No 9.313, De 13 de Novembro de 1996 [online]. (DF); 1996. Available at: Brasi1ia [2003 Sep 111 Ministbrio da Saude. Terapia anti-retroviral e saude publica: urn balanqo da expericncia brasileira [online]. Brasilia (DF); 1999. Available at
225 18. MinistCrio da Saude 2001b Acesso universal e gratuito [online]. Brasilia (DF); 2000. Available at ~URL:http:/lwww.aids.gov.brlpoliticdacesso%2Ouniversa10/o2Oe%2Ogratuito/ac esso.htm> [2003 Sep 111 19. MinistCrio da Saude. National AIDS drug policy [online]. Brasilia (DF); 2001. Available at: ~URL:http://www.aids.gov.br/final/bibliotecddrug/drug6.htm> [2003 Sep 111 20. MinistCrio da Saude. Boletim epidemiol6gico de AIDS 2002 [online]. Brasilia (DF); 2002. Available at <mu: http://www.aids.gov.br/final/biblioteca/ [2003 Sep 111 21. MinistCrio da Saude. 0 perfil da aids no Brasil e metas de govern0 para o controle da epidemia [online]. Brasilia (DF); 2003. Available at 12003 Sep - 11124. Passarelli CA. As patentes e 0s remCdios contra a AIDS: uma cronologia. Boletim ABIA, 2001, 46, p. 8-9. Available at 12003 Sep 111 29. UNAIDS. Brazil: Epidemiological Fact Sheets on HIVlAIDS and Sexually Transmitted Infections- 2002 Update [online]. Geneve; 2002. Available at [2003 Sep 111
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8.
AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: AIDS VACCINE STRATEGIES
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SYSTEMIC AND MUCOSAL IMMUNE RESPONSES INDUCED BY HIV-1 DNA AND HIV-PEPTIDE OR VLP BOOSTER IMMUNIZATION JORMA HINKULA CLAUDIA DEVITO', BARTEK ZUBER', FRANCO M. BUONAGUR04, REINHOLD BENTHIN', BRITTA WAHREN", ULF SCHRODER~ 1. Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Department of Virology, 171 82 Solna 2. Eurocine AB, Karolinska Science Park, 171 77 Stockholm, 3. Karolinska Institute, Microbiology and Tumorbiology Center, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden 4. Div.Vira1. Oncology & AIDS Reference Center 1" N u . Tumori "Fond. G. Pascale", Naples, Italy.
ABSTRACT & AIM Immunization performed intranasally with HIV-1 DNA gpl60/rev plasmid with or without CCRS-DNA plasmid in a novel mucosal cationic lipid adjuvant and gp41 peptide in L3 lipid adjuvant boostered a long-lasting HIV-1 subtype A, B and C specific systemic and mucosal B- and T-cell immune memory in mice. The inclusion of the HIV co receptor CCRS component in the vaccine may have enhanced the immunity towards HIV antigens. HIV-1 neutralizing antibodies were induced only in animals who received DNA-plasmid immunizations both in serum and in rectal mucosa. Systemic IFN-gamma secreting cell-mediated responses against the HIV- 1 envelope were seen still 12 months after immunization with HIV-1 DNA and peptide if N3/L3 adjuvants were used. Peptide immunised mice responded by developing a long-term gp41 specific systemic non-HIV neutralizing serum IgG responses but a shorter, upto 9 months long, mucosal gp41 specific IgA immunity. Intranasal administration of low amounts of recombinant HN-1 gag/gpl20 virus-like particles (2ug rVLP gag/gp120) resulted in serum IgG/IgA, vaginal and rectal IgA against HIV-1 gag antigens at after one single immunization when the L3 adjuvant was used. Long-term serum IgG and IgA against the human and macaque CCRS N-terminal and 2"douter loop region were detectable 8 months after the last immunization in one out of two macaques. The study was designed to analyse whether HIV-1 envelope DNA and gp41 transmembrane peptides mixed in novel adjuvants for mucosal immunization could provide a broadly HIV-1 subtype recognizing long-term HIV-1 envelope and/or CCRS peptide specific immunity, similar to what has previously been reported in highly exposed persistently HIV- 1 seronegative individuals.
229
230 INTRODUCTION Over 20 years of HIV research have, so far, not resulted in a preventive vaccine against HIV. Efforts have been made to better understand which mechanisms and molecules mediate a systemic and/or mucosal immune response against HIV-1 and which prevent or delay disease progression (McMichael et al. 2003). Study cohorts which have provided intriguing and possible clues on these issues are highly exposed persistently seronegative individuals (HEPS) and HIV-infected long-term nonprogressors (LTNP). Reasons for their apparent protection may be a genetic polymorphism of HLA genes or CC chemokine receptor genes, CCR5. However, the 32 base-pair deletion in the gene that encodes the coreceptor CCRS is present in only 2-4% of Caucasian individuals. The presence of innate and adaptive cell-mediated factors such as cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) and T-helper cell responses which might protect against the establishment of infection by limiting viral dissemination has been described for HEPS and for preventing disease in LTNF'. It has been postulated that HIV-specific T-helper or cytotoxic T-lymphocytes can cross-react with different HIV subtype sequences. In studies on primates protective immunity has been obtained by passive immunotherapy, both with polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies (Putkonen et a1.1991, Baba et al. 2000). The presence of antibodies in serum and mucosal samples can thus limit virus replication. In studies performed on humans it has been shown that serum and mucosal IgA from HEPS can neutralize primary isolates of HIV-1. Further it was shown in vitro that mucosal IgA collected from African HEPS could neutralize HIV-1 primary isolates representing many subtypes and were capable of inhibiting HIV-1 transcytosis in vitro (Devito et al. 2000, Belec et a1.2001). Studies performed on LTNP have revealed that proportions of these individuals have potent, broadly HIV-neutralizing antibodies in serum, thus probably supporting the protective role of neutralizing antibodies against HIV. Recently, it has been shown that IgA of HEPS recognized an epitope located on the gp41 protein, which differs from the IgA epitope recognized by HIV infected individuals. It was shown that serum IgA molecules from HEPS bind to an epitope (restricted to aa 581-584 (LQAR) which corresponds to the conserved coiled coil pocket in the alpha helic region of gp41 (Clerici et al. 2002). Studies performed by Bomsel et al. 1998 further support the interest in aiming for a vaccine-induced antibody response towards the gp41 transmembrane epitopes (aa 661-675) especially for mucosal immunity. This specific epitope was shown to bind to putative mucosal HIV receptors and that antibodies against or peptides representing this region were able to inhibit virus attachment to epithelial cells in vitro. Previous studies have also shown that certain HIV-1-exposed individuals may develop antibodies against the HIV- 1 NSI phenotype co receptor CCRS (Lopalco et a1.2000). The protective capacity of antibodies directed against this co receptor has thus been investigated as a vaccine approach with interesting possibilities in vivo. Considering that experimental approaches may be necessary in the design of an effective prophylactic vaccine against HIV, we have evaluated the immunogenicity of the gp41 coiled-coil-pocket in mice and if these immune responses can be enhanced by combining HIV-1 rgpl60 DNA, CCRS DNA and CCRS peptides with other well-conserved epitopes of the envelope from clade A, B, C and D representing HIV-1 clades circulating in Subsaharan Africa represented by two Ugandan strains (A and D), one South American clade C from Brazil and the clade B/MN isolate from Western Europe and USA. A collection of targeted epitopes from subtypes A to D could provide both a broad HIV-1 clade immunity combined
231 with auto antibodies against the prominent co receptor CCR5 bound to the HIV-1 envelope. We hypothesised that this approach would result in a more robust neutralizing immunity, better able to resist development of escape mutations so commonly seen with HIV-1 virus. The aim was further to induce systemic and mucosal immunity of long duration by using safe, low cost, efficient and temperaturestable novel antigedadjuvants for delivering non-live experimental vaccine candidates against HIV-1. MATERIALS & METHODS Animals, immunizations and adjuvants: Balb/ c and C57B1/6 mice were immunized twice with 4-8 week intervals. An intranasal HIV- 1 gpl60/rev DNA vaccine prime (8ug DNA/mouse/immunization) followed by a gp4lpeptide (10 ug/mouse/immunization) booster immunization was compared with gp41 peptide or rVLP-gaglgpl20 (2 ug/mouse/immunization) and control immunizations with adjuvant or PBS alone. The DNA plasmids were given mixed with N3 adjuvant (cationic lipid-based adjuvant) or in saline at a total volume of 12 ul/mouse and the peptide/protein boosters were given with L3 adjuvant (an endogenous lipid-based adjuvant) or PBS at a total volume of 14 ul/mouse. Titrations of the N3 and L3 adjuvants were performed to find the minimal required adjuvant amount for obtaining immune responses without side effects (Schroder et al. 1999). Mice were anaesthetized with Isofurane for 1 minute when receiving the intranasal immunogens. The animals were kept under pathogen free conditions according to the ethical permissions at the Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Stockholm. Sweden. Antigens: HIV-1 gp160 and gagp37 DNA plasmids used represented HIV-1 subtype B/BaL(Hinkula et al. 1997), the human CCRS-expressing plasmid has been described elsewere (Zuber et al. 2001). Virus-like particles gag/gpl20 representing a Ugandan HIV-1 clade A have previously been described elsewere (Buonaguro et al. 2002). Synthetic peptides (amino acids 20-mers) representing HIV-1 gp120 envelope and gp41 transmembrane regions of subtypes A, B, C and D and human CCRS were purchased from ThermoHybaid, Ulm, Germany. Antibody responses: HIV-1 antigen specific serum IgG and IgA, fecal sample, vaginal wash and lung lavage IgA reactivity was analysed by ELISA and HIV-1 neutralization assays. In brief, ELISA plates were coated with recombinant proteins 1 ug/ml or 10 ug/ml of peptides representing HIV-1 gagp24, gp 120 envelope, gp41 transmembrane peptides representing HIV subtypes A, B and C and human CCRS 2"d loop region. Coating was performed with 0,05M sodium carbonate buffer (PH 9,s-9,6). Serum samples were diluted in PBS with 1 mg/rnl BSA, 2% inacivated goat-serum, 0,05% Tween 20 and added 100 ul/well in antigen coated plates, incubated for 90 min. at 37 C. After incubation, plates were washed and conjugates were added, goat-anti-mouse IgG (BioRad, Richmond, CA) or anti-mouse IgA (Southern Biotechnologies, Birmingham, AL) dilution 1:1000, was added at 100 pVwe11, incubated for 2 h at 37O C, and OPD (2 mg/ml orthophenylendiamine in 0.05M sodium citric acid pH 5,s with 0.003% H202) was added as substrate at 100 pl/well. After a 30 minute incubation period, the reaction was stopped by adding 100 pl/well 2.5M HzS04. Absorbances
232 were measured at 490nm. Values above the mean optical density of the negative control plus two SD were used as the cut off and values above were considered as positive. Presence of IgG and IgA in mucosal samples were tested with the same assays but with the first incubation performed at +4 C over night, thereafter as described above. HIV-1 neutralization assays: Heat inactivated mouse sera (56 C for 25-30 min) and Captive A/E purified mucosal IgA were tested for their antiviral activity against HIV-1 isolates representing HIV-1 subtype B (SF2 and 6920), subtype A (92UG029) and subtype C (HIV-1 11160) (Zuber et al. 2000). In brief, HIV-1 and test samples were mixed and incubated for 60 min. at 37 C before added to PHA-ativated human PBMCs (100 000 cells per well) and incubated an additional 16 hours at 37 C, cells were washed twice with RPMI 1640 supplemented with 5% inactivated fetal calf serum, and then cultured for 5-6 days in RPMI supplemented with 10% FCS, 20 m/ml rIL-2, 4 mM L-glutamine, 2uM 2-mercaptoethanol, 2 uM sodium pyruvate, 5IU/ml penicilline and 50 uglml streptomycin. At day 6-7 presence of HIV-1 p24 antigen in the culture supernatants was tested with an HIV-1 p24 antigen capture ELISA (Devito et al. 2000). An 80% reduction of HIV-1 p24 antigen detection was considered as a reliable neutralizing titer (NT80%). Cell-mediated immune responses: T-cell immunity was analysed by T-cell proliferation and cytokine release assays (Hinkula et al. 1997, 2002). In brief, spleen cells were collected from mice at 2,4, 8, 12, 24, 36, 52 and 64 weeks. Spleen cells (200 000 per well) were cultured in triplicate samples, 250 ul/well for 4-5 days in RF’MI 1640 supplemented with 5% inactivated fetal calf serum, 4 mM L-glutamine, 2uM 2-mercaptoethanol, 2 uM sodium pyruvate, 5IU/ml penicillin and 50 ug/ml streptomycin. Cells were cultured in presence of 0.1-1 ug antigen, mitogen and medium as control. At day 4 a Soul volume of tritiated-thymidine (1 uCi) was added per well for 16 h and thymidine incorporation was measured in a beta-counter. The mean reactivity (counts per minute, cpm) was calculated for all triplicate antigens, control antigen, mitogen and medium control. To obtain a value for specific proliferation (stimulation index, SI) the mean cpm value for each antigen was divided by the cpm value for medium. Stimulation was considered positive if the SI value was 3. supernatants were collected at 72 hours after antigen stimulation and Interferon-gamma and interleukin 5 release was measured by commercial ELISA capture assays (R&D Systems, UK). Efficacy of novel mucosal adjuvants for DNA-plasmid administration (N3adjuvant) and for recombinant Virus-like particles (rVLPgaglgpl20) protein or gp41 peptide administration (L3-adjuvant, monooleate/oleic acid) were analysed with regard to their immune enhancing properties. RESULTS Humoral immune responses: Table 1 shows the frequency of serum and mucosal antibody responders to HIV-1 antigens after one or two immunizations with HIV-1 DNA plasmids or rVLPgaglgpl20 alone or after the booster immunization with gp41 peptides. Longterm humoral immunity was shown to persist for over 12 months after the booster
233 immunization shown by the presence of HIV-1 gp41 and CCRS specific IgG and IgA secreting B lymphocytes in spleen and regional lymph nodes in immunized mice. Intranasal HIV-1 gp160lrev-DNA with N3 adjuvant and HIV-1 gpl6Olrev plus human CCRS DNA immunization followed by gp41/CCR5 peptide L3-adjuvant immunization resulted in long-term (>12 months) subtype A, B and C HIV-1 gp41 specific and CCRS 2"d loop peptide B--memory responses in serum. In Table 2 the frequency of HIV-1 neutralizing activity in serum is shown in the different groups at 3-12 months after last immunization. A long-term mucosal (intestinal, vaginal and lung lavage I@) response was obtained in addition to a systemic immune response. The inclusion of the HIV co receptor CCRS component in the vaccine may have enhanced the immunity also towards HIV antigens. In primates, immunization with CCR5-DNA followed by peptide booster induced high titers of CCRS-specific serum IgG and IgA capable of inhibiting CCR5dependent HIV-infection in vitro (Zuber et al. 2002). These immune responses remained in the immunized primates for over 9 months after the last immunization (not shown). In figure 1 the median vaginal IgA responses towards different HIV-1 subtypes are shown over time in animals immunized with and without
HIVgpl60/CCR5-DNA-priming.
Figure 1. Median vaginal wash IgA kinetics against gp41 subtype A and B in four groups of twice intranasaly immunized mice over a period of 12 months. 45
0
gp41 peptides
(A)
HIViCCRS-DNAi@lpept HIV-DNAigp4lpept
Controls
0
(A)
(A)
gp41 peptides
(B)
HIV/CCRS-DNNgp4lpept HIV-DNAigpllpept
Controls
0
1
3
6
9
(A)
(B)
(B)
12
Time (Months) Using the N3 adjuvant for the intranasal DNA-immunizations showed that a 1040-fold reduction of DNA could be obtained. When the N3-adjuvant was titrated for efficacy and safety we were able to show that a final concentration of 1-2% of the adjuvant was efficiently supporting the immune responses even with as little as 0.8ug DNA-plasmid (data not shown). For the presented results in this study the 2% N3 adjuvant concentration was used. Peptide immunized mice responded by developing a
(B)
234
long-term gp41 specific systemic serum IgG responses but a shorter, up to 9 months long, mucosal gp41 specific IgA immunity. The possibility of using rVLP g a g a 1 2 0 instead of peptides is being tested in ongoing studies. Primary results indicate that the dosage of rVLP can be reduced 10-fold (to 2ug/immunization) when recombinant VLP was mixed with the L3-adjuvant as compared with doses needed without adjuvant. Figure 2. Fecal IgA responses against HIV-1 gp160 envelope antigen pre- and postintranasal gp41 peptide booster immunization in HIV-1 gpl60hev DNAN3 adjuvant (0-4%) immunized mice. Fecal wash dilution: 1/4.
Cell-mediated immunity Figure 3A. Release of IL4 in mice intranasally HIV-1 gpl60hev DNA-N3(04%) immunized pre- and post HIV-1 gp41 peptide booster. Gp160 antigen stimulated cells. 80
g
2
~
706050
-
40
-
30
-
.
Figure 38. Responders d F N gamma secreting cells after intranasal HIV-I gpl60lrev DNA-N3 adjuvant (04%) immunization pre- and post HIV-I gp41 peptide booster. Supernatant of rgpl60 antigen stimulated cells in vitro, IFN-gamma. I
3/5 I
In Table 3 and Figures 3A and B the frequency of HIV-1 proliferative and interferon gamma responders are shown. Mice receiving the 8ug dose DNA-plasmids with N3 adjuvant and boostered with L3-adjuvant mixed peptides/proteins always responded more strongly, both as T-cell proliferative responses and as higher amounts of released IFN-gamma or IL-5 than mice receiving antigens without the adjuvants. The possibility of using rVLP gag/gpl20 instead of peptides is being tested in ongoing studies. Primary results indicate that the dosage of rVLP can be reduced 10fold (to 2ug/immunization) when rVLP is mixed with the L3-adjuvant as compared to the doses needed without adjuvant. DISCUSSION HIV-1 neutralizing serum antibodies were induced which were still present 12 months after booster immunization Serum was shown to be capable of neutralizing HIV-1 strains representing HIV clades B=A>C. HIV-1 SF2 neutralizing serum, fecal and lung IgA was detectable only in the DNA primed mouse groups. Immune responses were enhanced by using the novel N3 adjuvant for delivering DNAvaccines as demonstrated by the lower amounts of DNA-plasmid needed to evoke systemic and mucosal immune responses. In fact, it was possible to reduce the amount ofHIV-lgpl60/rev DNA to 0,8 ug DNA in a mixture with 1-2% N3 adjuvant to obtain a detectable mucosal IgA and cell-mediated (IFN-gamma) immune response. In recent years great progress has been made in the field of AIDS- and DNA-vaccination when combined with heterologous boosters with live vectors such as modified recombinant vaccinias (MVA) or adeno virus vectors (Amara et al. 2001, Robinson H.L. 2002). These vaccine candidates have efficiently induced potent and protective cell-mediated immune responses in primates in experimental settings. The general problem with the HIV-vaccines has been to evoke a potent, long-lasting
1
I
2
I
3
I
4
I
5
I
6
1
1
236 humoral immunity preferably present at mucosal sites, the main port for HIV-1 transmission. Passive immunotherapy trials have shown promising possibilities, but similar antibodies have been very difficult to obtain by immunization. Important factors to bear in mind when aiming at functionally important antibodies is that we know relatively little of their efficacy on mucosal surfaces while studies performed by Baba et al. 2001 and others have shown that systemic antibodies can work well. At least in a number of studies, what seems to be the most prominent, broadly neutralization inducing epitopes in the HIV-1 envelope have been detected (Broliden et al. 1992, Muster et al. 1993, Burton DR. 2000, Zwick et al. 2001). The unfortunate finding when the most efficient broadly neutralizing antibodies are being characterized, has been their unusual CDR3 regions, often longer than seems possible to obtain in rodents such as mice or guinea pigs. Further, the N-linked glycosylation of the envelope seem to play an important role in hiding neutralizing epitopes which are still an important factor to take into account when selecting vaccine candidates (Scanlan et al. 2002). The only way to properly investigate the efficacy of a neutralizing, antibody-inducing vaccine will thus always be man. The aim of this study was to develop and analyze at least one HIV-I DNA prime and HIV-1 peptide booster (DNA-PEP) or virus-like particle candidate for a clinical trial. The basis and the strategy of the vaccine efforts are based on the immune study results performed on highly HIV-exposed, persistently seronegative individuals (Shearer et al. 1996, Devito et al. 2000, Belec et al. 2001, Clerici et al. 2002). The facinating finding in parts of these cohorts have been their capacity to develop an immune response specific for the HIV gp41 trans-memberane region as well as against self, such as the HIV-1 coreceptor CCRS. This kind of double-directed antibody response should logically be less sensitive to virus mutations. If it were possible to mimic this kind of antibody response by vaccination, it might result in a more robust protective immunity than when targeting the HIV envelope only. The focus would be to provide HIV-vaccines with non-live vaccine candidates but with the potential of providing the desired immune responses that can be obtained with live vaccines. The main aim of this concept of preventive vaccine would be to provide longlasting mucosal (genital, rectal) sIgA responses against conserved HIV-1 suppressinglinhibiting regions in the HIV envelope, and to understand the basic mucosal immunology behind the intranasally induced immunity. Using intranasal delivery would also often provide a systemic immunity, a second line of immunity in the blood and peripheral organs. Combining a smart vaccine delivery device with new promising adjuvants for mucosal delivery would increase and provide a more longlasting immunity than vaccination without an adjuvant. This study would propose vaccine candidates who would be based on heterologous vaccine strategies where in part circular HIV-DNA plasmids previously shown to be safe and in part synthetic peptides/proteins, and efficiently induce HIV-specific immunity in HIV-infected individuals or animals but which have never been given intranasally in man. Alternatively in our ongoing studies HIV-1 subtype-broad (subtypes A, B and C) minimalistic HIV-DNA candidates are being studied for analysis and comparison of efficacy in inducing broadly HIV subtype recognizing long-lasting memory responses (Ljungberg et al. 2002, Devito et al. 2002). One special task that we plan to address with our envelope vaccines, will be to provide humoral sIgA and systemic IgG immunity towards both phenotypes of HIV, both the rapidhigh and the commonly sexually transferred slow/Iow phenotypes. For these kinds of studies we need novel, safe and inexpensive adjuvants, such as the ones proposed in this study.
237 CONCLUSIONS Intranasal DNA-N3 prime followed by one peptide-13 booster immunization was able to induce a subtype broad humoral B-cell memory and HIV-1 neutralizing immunity for at least half of a mouse’s lifetime. REFERENCES Amara RR., Villinger F., Altman JD., et al. Control of a mucosal challenge and prevention of AIDS by a multiprotein DNNMVA vaccine. Science 2001,292:69-74. Baba TW., Liska V., Hofinann-Lehmann R., Vlasak J., Xu W., Ayehuni S., Cavacini LA., Posner MR., Katinger H., Stiegler G., Bernacky BJ., Rizvi TA., Schmidt R., Hill R., Keeling ME., Lu Y., Wright JE., Chou TC., Ruprecht F W . Human neutralizing monoclonal antibodies of the IgGl subtype protect against mucosal simian-human immunodeficiency virus infection. Nature Med. 2000,6,200-206.. Tranchot-Diallo J., Diallo MO., et Belec L., Ghys PD., Hocini H., Nkengasong IN., al. Cervicovaginal secretory antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) that block viral transcytosis through tight epithelial barriers in highly exposed HIV-1-seronegative African women. Jhfect. Dis. 2001, 184:1412-1422. Bomsel M., Heyman M., Hocini H., Lagaye S., Belec L., Dupont C., Desgranges C. Intracellular neutralization of HIV transcytosis across tight epithelial barriers by antiHIV envelope protein dIgA or IgM. Immunity 1998,9:277-287. Broliden P.A., von Gegerfelt A., Clapham P., Rosen J., Fenyo EM., Wahren B., Broliden K. Identification of human neutralization-inducing regions of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 envelope glycoproteins. Proc.Nat1. Acad. Sci. USA, 1992, 89,461-465. Buonaguro L., Racioppi L., Tonesello M.L., Arra C., Visciano M.L., Biryahwaho B., Sempala S.D.K., Giraldo G., Buonaguro F.M. Induction of neutralizing antibodies and cytotoxic T lymphocytes in Balb/c mice immunized with virus-like particles presenting a gp120 molecule from a HIV-1 isolate of clade A. Antiviral Res. 2002, 54, 189-201. Burton DR, Montefiori DC. The antibody response in HIV-1 infection. AIDS 1997; 11: S87-S98. Burton D.R., Parren P.W. Vaccines and the induction of functional antibodies: time to look beyond the molecules of natural infection ? Nat.Med 2000, 6:123-125. Clerici M., Barassi C., Devito C., Pastori C., Piconi S., Trabattoni D., Longhi R., Hinkula J., Broliden K., Lopalco L. Serum IgA of HIV-exposed uninfected individuals inhibit HIV through recognition of a region within the alfa-helic of gp41. AIDS 2002,6:1731-1741. Devito C., Hinkula J., Kaul R., Kimani J., Kiama P., Lopalco L., Barass C., Piconi S., Trabattoni D., Bwayo J.J., Plummer F., Clerici M., Broliden K. Cross-clade HIV-1specific neutralizing IgA in mucosal and systemic compartments of HIV-1 exposed, persistently seronegative subjects. J.AIDS, 2002, 30;413-420. Devito C., Levi M., Broliden K., Hinkula J. Epitope-mapping of B-cell epitopes in rabbits immunized with various gag antigens for the induction of HIV-1 gag capture ELISA reagents. J.Immuno1. Methods 2000, 238, 69-80.
238 Devito C. Functional properties of antibodies in resiatance against HIV-1 infection. Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, Thesis 2002. Hinkula J, Svanholm C, Schwartz S, Lundholm P, Brytting M, Engstrom G, Benthin R, Glaser H, Kohleisen B, Erfle V, Okuda K, Wigzell H, Wahren B. Recognition of prominent viral epitopes induced by immunization with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 regulatory genes. J.Viro1. 1997,71,5528-5539. Kaul R, Plummer FA, Kimani J, Dong T, Kiama P, Rostron T, Njagi E, MacDonald KS, Bwayo JJ, McMichael AJ, Rowland-Jones SL. HIV-1-specific mucosal CD8-t lymphocyte responses in the cervix of HN-1-resistant prostitutes in Nairobi. J Immunol2000 Feb 1;164(3):1602-11 Ljungberg K., Rollman E., Eriksson L., Hinkula J., Wahren B. Enhanced immune responses after DNA vaccination with combined envelope genes from different HIV1 subtypes. Virology 2002,302:44-57.. Lopalco L., Barassi C., Pastori C., Longhi R., Burastero SE., Tambussi G., Mazotta F., Lazzarin A,, Clerici M., Sicardi AG. CCR5-reactive antibodies in seronegative partners of HIV-seropositive individuals down-molulate surface CCRS in vivo and neutralize infectivity of R5 strains of HIV-1 in vitro. J.Immuno1. 2000, 164, 34263433. McMichael A.J., Hanke T. HIV vaccines 1983-2003. Science 2003,7:874-880. Muster T., Steidl F., Putscher M., Trkola A., Klima A., Himmler G., Ruker F., Katinger H. A conserved neutralizing epitope on gp41 of human immunodeficiency virus type 1. J.Viro1. 1993,67, 6642-6647. Myers G., Lenroot R. HIV glycosylation: What does it portend i AIDS Res. Human Retrov. 1992, 8, 1459-1460. Putkonen P., Thorstensson R., Ghavamzadeh L., Albert J., Hild K., Biberfeld G., Norrby E. Prevention of HIV-2 and SIVsm infection by passive immunization in cynomolgus monkeys. Nature 1991,352: 434-436. Robinson HL. New hope for an AIDS vaccine. Nat. Rev. Immunol. 2002,2,239-250. Scanlan C.N. et al. The broadly neutralizing anti-human immunodeficiency virus type 1 antibody 2G12 recognizes a cluster of alfa-2 mannose residues on the outer surface of gp120. J.Viro1. 2002, 76, 7306-7321. Schroder U., Svenson SB. Nasal and parenteral immunizations with diphteria toxoid using monoglyceride/fatty acid lipid suspensions as adjuvants. Vaccine 1999, 17, 2096-2103. Shearer G.M., Clerici M. Protective immunity against HIV infection: has nature done the experiment for us ? Immunol. Today 1996, 17-21. Zwick M.B., Labrijn A.F., Wang M., Spenlehauer C., Saphire E.O., Bilney J.M., Moore J.P., Stiegler G., Katinger H., Burton D.R., Parren P.W. Broadly neutralizing antibodies targeted to the membrane-proximal external region of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 glycoprotein gp41. J.Viro1. 2001, 75:10892-10905. Zuber B., Hinkula J., Vodros D., Lundholm P., Nilsson C., Morner A., Levi M., Benthin R., Wahren B. Induction of immune responses and break of tolerance by DNA against the HIV-1 coreceptor CCRS but no protection from SNsm challenge. Virol. 2000,278,400-41 1.
239 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by research grants from the Swedish Research Council, the Karolinska Institutet Research Fund and the Swedish Medical Society
240 Table 1 : Frequency of serum, rectal and vaginal IgG and IgA responders against HIV-1 antigens in groups of mice intranasally immunized with HIV-DNA alone or with peptide booster and with and without mucosa] adjuvants N3 and L3. No. of mice Groups and immunogens
Adjuvant
No. of
immunizations
Serum ISG rgpl60
gagp24
rgpl60
gagp24
gpieo
Fectal IgA
Serum IgA
Vaginal IgA gagp24 gp!60 gagp24
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gpl60/rev
Saline
8
2
0/8
0/8
1/8
0/8
0/8
0/8
0/8
0/8
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gpl60/rev
N3
6
2
5/6
0/6
6/6
0/6
6/6
0/6
5/6
0/6
80 ug HIV-1 DNA gpl60/rev + gp41 peptides Salme/L3
6
2
6/6
N.A
6/6
N.A
6/6
NA
6/6
NA
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gpl60/rev 1 gp41 peptides
N3/L3
12
2
12/12
N.A
12/12
N.A
7/7
N.A
6/7
NA
10 ug gp41 peptides
Saline
8
2
1/8
0/4
0/8
0/4
0/8
NA
0/8
NA
50 ug gp41 peptides
Saline
5
2
2/5
0/5
1/5
N.A
1/5
NA
0/5
NA
10 ug gp41 peptides
L3
7
2
111
N.A
6/7
N.A
6/6
0/6
6/6
NA
2ugrVLPgag/gpl20
PBS
6
1
0/6
0/6
0/6
0/6
0/6
0/6
0/6
0/6
2ugrVLPgag/gpl20
L3
6
1
0/6
6/6
0/6
6/6
0/6
6/6
0/6
5/6
N3/L3
10
2
0/10
0/10
0/10
0/10
0/6
0/3
0/6
0/3
L3 or N3 adjuvant Abbreviations: N.A = Not analysed.
Table 2: Frequency of HIV-1 neutralizing serum and rectal antibody responders against HIV-1 antigens in groups of mice intranasally immunized with HIV-DNA alone or with peptide booster and with and without mucosal adjuvants N3 and L3. Neutralizing antibodies in serum Groups, doses and immunogens.
No. of mice
HIV-1 Subtype A
HIV-1 Subtype B
Adjuvant
Neutralizing antibodies rectal HIV-1 HIV-1 Subtype C SF2 Subtype B
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gp!60/rev
Saline
8
0/8
0/8
0/8
0/4
0/4
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gpl60/rev NT80%
N3
6
1/6 30
6/6 20-60
0/6 <20
0/3 <2
0/3 <2
80 ug HIV-1 DNA gpl60/rev + gp41 peptides Saline/L3 NT80%
6
N.A
6/6 20-220
N.A
3/3 4-8
2/3 4-5
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gp!60/rev + gp41 peptides NT80%
N3/L3
12
3/6 20-40
6/6 30-120
2/6 20-30
4/4 4-12
4/4 4-8
10 ug gp41 peptides
Saline
8
0/8
0/8
0/8
0/4
0/4
50 ug gp41 peptides
Saline
5
0/5
0/5
0/5
0/4
0/4
10 ug gp41 peptides
L3
7
0/6
0/6
0/6
0/4
0/4
2ugrVLPgag/gpl20
PBS
6
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
2ugrVLPgag/gpl20
L3
6
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
L3 or N3 adjuvant
N3/L3
10
0/3
0/3
0/3
0/2
0/2
Abbreviations: N.A = Not analysed, NT80% reciprocal dilution resulting in 80% reduced HIV-1 p24 antigen production.
241
242
Table 3: Frequency of cell proliferation and interferon-gamma responders against HIV-1 antigens in groups of mice intranasally immunized with HIV-DNA alone or with peptide booster and with and without mucosal adjuvants N3 and L3.
Groups, doses and immunogens. Adjuvant
Cell-mediated immunity T-cell proliferation No. of mice HIV-1 gpieo gp41 peptides
gagp24
IFN-gamma responses HIV-1 gpieo gp41 peptides
gagp24
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gp!60/rev
Saline
8
2/8
0/8
0/8
0/8
0/8
N.A
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gpl60/rev
N3
6
6/6
3/6
N.A
5/6
2/6
N.A
80 ug HIV-1 DNA gp!60/rev + gp41 peptides
Saline/13
6
6/6
2/6
N.A
6/6
2/6
N.A
8 ug HIV-1 DNA gpl 60/rev + gp41 peptides
N3/L3
12
12/12
12/12
0/4
10/12
11/12
0/4
10 ug gp41 peptides
Saline
8
0/8
0/8
0/8
0/8
0/4
N.A
50 ug gp41 peptides
Saline
5
0/5
0/5
0/5
0/5
0/5
N.A
10 ug gp41 peptides
L3
7
4/6
6/6
0/6
1/6
2/6
0/4
2ugrVLPgag/gpl20
PBS
6
0/6
0/6
1/6
N.A
0/6
0/6
2ugrVLPgag/gpl20
L3
6
0/6
0/6
6/6
N.A
1/6
3/6
N3/L3
10
0/6
0/6
0/7
0/3
0/3
0/3
L3 or N3 adjuvant Abbreviations: N.A = Not analysed.
PRE-CLINICAL PRIMATE VACCINE STUDIES RIGMOR THORSTENSSON Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Stockholm, Sweden AIDS is a serious challenge both in industrialised and developing countries especially in Africa and Southeast Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa, the most affected area with almost 70% of the global total of HIV-positive people, the life expectancy at birth is set to recede to levels seen half a century ago. According to UNAIDS and WHO there were 42 million people, including 3.2 million children, living with HIV infection at the end of year 2002, 5 million of which were infected during the last year. The global AIDS epidemic is caused by different HIV-1 subtypes (designated AJ), which differ from each other in about 30% of their genetic sequence. Subtype B dominates in North America, Australia and Europe and is therefore the most studied of all subtypes (1). However, subtype C is the most widely spread subtype globally. In Africa all subtypes occur, but subtypes A, C and D are the most prevalent (2). Anti-retroviral therapy has changed the course of HIV disease in developed countries. However, therapy is not usually available in developing countries and it is not useful for prophylaxis. Vaccination is therefore necessary, in order to decrease the spread of HIV infection. It is also a means of increasing the immunity of those already infected during anti-retroviral treatment, so called immunotherapy. Non-human primate models are important to bridge the gap between concept and practice by helping to prioritise between different experimental immunogens and to predict the relative protective efficacy of different candidate immunogens (3). The only available HIV-1 challenge model is the HIV-1 chimpanzee model, but it is considered as a less suitable model due to several disadvantages: an endangered species, extremely expensive, and rarely develops full-blown AIDS. Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) induces a disease in monkeys that is similar to AIDS in humans. Monkeys can be infected by intravaginal, intravenous, intrarectal and oral routes thereby mimicking the principal routes of HIV infections in humans. The incubation period and severity of the disease correlate with the viral load in a way that is similar to the disease in humans (4). The most effective HIV vaccine should protect against both cell-free and cellassociated virus and against virus on mucosal surfaces as well as systemically disseminated virus. Therefore an ideal HIV vaccine should induce both humoral and cellular immunity both systemically and mucosally. A number of vaccine studies in monkey models have failed to identify a clear correlate of protection, but in recent experiments a correlation between the breadth and strength of the immune responses and the protective efficacy has been demonstrated. HIV sub-unit vaccine candidates stimulate good antibody responses but are poor at initiating or boosting cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTL), whereas live vector vaccines often generate CTL responses but low antibody responses. The so-called prime-boost vaccine regimen uses two candidate vaccines with complementary immunogenicity profiles, thus inducing both cellular and humoral immunity (5-7; own data). The extensive genetic diversity of HIV is often viewed as a serious banier to the development of an AIDS vaccine. Especially of concern is the lack of vaccineinduced antibodies to HIV, which are able to neutralize primary HIV isolates. The viral proteins most commonly used for immunizations of nonhuman primates or humans have been envelope glycoproteins. Envelope subunits given alone (in an adjuvant) have been shown to induce protective immunity against non-
243
244 pathogenic challenge virus in the HIV-l/chimpanzee model and in the HIV2/macaque and SHIV/macaque models but not against pathogenic SIV challenge in macaques. A limitation with the use of gp120 subunits as vaccines alone or in primeboost regimens, is the failure of these subunits to induce cross-neutralizing antibodies against primary HIV-isolates. However, there are some recent reports of new candidate vaccines based on HIV-1 envelope-CD4 receptor complexes or the CD4 receptor-co-receptor complex for HrV that have been able to induce broadly neutralizing antibodies against primary HIV isolates in experimental animals (8, 9). Live attenuated vaccines have generally been the most successful approaches in immunizing against viral-induced disease. We, and others, have been able to demonstrate vaccine-induced complete protection against SIV infection (so called sterilizing immunity) or reduction of virus production and prevention of SIV associated disease by use of different live attenuated vaccines (5; own data). Live recombinant virus-based vaccines have the potential of being useful HIV vaccines since they mimic live attenuated vaccines in inducing both humoral and cellular immune responses (5-7; own data) but do not have the safety risks of live attenuated vaccines. Several vaccine trials in macaques as well as in humans (phase UII), using priming with live recombinant vaccine and boosting with viral proteins, have shown that the prime-boost approach enhanced the immune responses relative to the use of either component alone. Enhanced immune responses have also been demonstrated by the use of other prime-boost combinations, i e viral DNA followed by a live recombinant vaccine or a combination of two live recombinant vaccines based on different viral vectors. Furthermore, studies of vaccine-induced protection in macaques have shown a higher protective efficacy by the use of prime-boost combinations. Poxviruses, including vaccinia, attenuated vaccinia and canarypox have been the most commonly used live viral vectors in HIV/SIV vaccine studies (6). Other viral vectors used in HIV/SIV vaccine studies comprise Semliki Forest Virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus, adenovirus, polio virus and hepatitis virus. For a vaccine to be effective against HIV-1 infection in man, it will have to protect against mucosal challenge since the most common route of HIV transmission is through sexual exposure. We, and others, have shown protection against mucosal (rectal or vaginal) SIV challenge in macaques vaccinated with live attenuated virus (4). Control of infection with homologous SIV or chimeric SIVMIV-1 (SHIV) inoculated intrarectally has also been demonstrated in a proportion of macaques immunized with live recombinant SIV vaccine based on an attenuated vaccinia vector (MVA or Nyvac) or immunized with a DNA based vaccine followed by a MVAbased vaccine (10, 11). In our most recent experiment macaques systemically immunized with a combination of SFV-HIV-l/SIV and MVA-HIV-l/SIV and challenged intrarectally with SHIV showed a significant reduction of the plasma viral load compared to the controls. Although the non-human primate models have provided information that has significantly advanced vaccine design, only comparison with the outcome of clinical phase I11 trials in humans will elucidate the accuracy of the experimental models (Table 1). The first phase I11 trials for any vaccine candidate, bivalent subtype B and subtype B/E envelope glycoprotein are ongoing in North America, Europe and Thailand among HIV-negative volunteers with high-risk behaviour. Initial results presented on 24 February 2003 showed that the vaccine, although safe, did not prove effective in the trials in North America and Europe (12). More than 150 completed
245
phase I and I1 vaccine trials using approximately 50 different HIV-1 vaccine candidates, presented as live poxvirus vectors, recombinant protein subunits, synthetic peptides, plasmid DNA or a combined prime boost regimen, have shown that the vaccines are safe and well tolerated (13).
Table 1. Only phase I11 trials in humans can tell the real importance of animal models. HIV-infection in humans
Animal models
Main route of transmission is by sexual intercourse
Few studies with mucosal challenge Limited knowledge about local immune
responses Low virus doses (0.1 - 1% transmission rate)
High doses of challenge virus (100% transmission rate)
Different subtypes in different geographical regions
Often homology between vaccine and challenge virus Limited knowledge about cross-protection against different subtypes
REFERENCES 1.
UNAIDS, WHO: AIDS Geneva:UNAIDS/WHO, 2002.
2.
Peeters M. and Sharp PM: Genetic diversity of HIV-1: the moving target. AIDS 14 (SUppl3): S129-S140,2000.
3.
Nathanson N., Hirsch VM., Mathieson BJ. The role of nonhuman primates in the development of an AIDS vaccine. AIDS 13(Suppl A): S113-S120, 1999.
4.
Whetter LE., Ojukwu IC., Novembre FJ., Dewhurst S. Pathogenesis of simian immunodeficiencyvirus infection. J Gen. Virol. 80:1557-1568, 1999.
5.
Letvin NL., Barouch DH., Montefiori DC. Prospects for vaccine protection against HIV-1 infection and AIDS. Annu. Rev. Immunol. 20:73-99, 2002.
6.
Robinson HL. New hope for an AIDS vaccine. Nature Reviews Immunology 2: 239-250,2002,
7.
Mascola JR. and Nabel GJ. Vaccines for the prevention of HIV-1 disease. Current Opinion in Immunology 13: 489-495,2001,
8.
Fouts T., Godfiey K., Bobb K. et al. Crosslinked HIV-1 envelope-CD4 receptor complexes elicit broadly cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies in rhesus macaques. Proc. Natl Acad Sci 99:11842-11847,2002.
9.
Wang CY., Shen M., Tam G. et al. Synthetic AIDS vaccine by targeting HIV receptor. Vaccine 21 :89-97,2002,
epidemic
update:
December
2002.
10. Benson J., Chougnet C., Robert-Guroff M., Montefiori D., Markham P., Shearer G., Gallo RC., Cranage M., Paoletti E., Limbach K., Venzon D., Tartaglia J.,
246 Franchini G. Recombinant vaccine-induced protection against the highly pathogenic simian immunodeficiency virus SIV(mac251): dependence on route of challenge exposure. J. Virol. 72:4170-4182, 1998.
11. Amara RR. Et al. Control of a mucosal challenge and prevention of AIDS by a multiprotein DNPJMVA vaccine. Science 292: 69-74, 2001. 12.
VaxGen, Inc. Investor Relations, http://www.vaxgen.com
13. IAVI
Database
of
Preventive AIDS
httu://www.iavi.orrr/trialsdb/basicsearchform.asu
Vaccines
in
Human
Trials.
PREPARING FOR PHASE I/II HIV VACCINE TRIALS IN SOUTH AFRICA AND PLANNING FOR PHASE I11 TRIALS
DR. EFTYHIA VARDAS Specialist Clinical Virologist and Director, HIV AIDS Vaccine Division, Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, Soweto, South Africa ABSTRACT The Perinatal HIV Research Unit (PHRU) recently established an HIV AIDS Vaccine Division (HAVD) in order to test multiple phase I/II HIV vaccine candidates as safely and as quickly as possible, in strict adherence to the International Conference on the Harmonization of Good Clinical Practice (ICH GCP) and the South African Department of Health GCP guidelines. The purpose of testing multiple phase I/II candidates is to quickly identify the most suitable vaccine candidates, with good safety profiles and promising immunogenicity, which must be tested without delay in large scale phase I11 efficacy studies in South Africa in order to expedite the availability of a licensed preventative HIV vaccine, which is an important aspect of controlling the HIV epidemic in this country. Conducting multiple phase I/II studies requires the participation of several hundred, low-risk HIV negative, healthy volunteers and many ethical issues need to be addressed during the process to achieve this. An important ethical issue is the potential exploitation of communities and previously disadvantaged groups in South Africa participating in medical research, therefore it is essential to establish mechanisms to ensure transparent researcher-community-research participant interactions and provide a fully informed, low risk, HIV-negative cohort willing to be enrolled in specific phase I/II HIV vaccine trials. Potential participants and communities that are fully informed, in a transparent manner, about the risks and benefits of participating in HIV vaccine trials can make their own decisions about trial participation without fear of undue coercion and exploitation by researchers and vaccine manufacturers. A specific “prescreening protocol” was designed by PHRU-HAVD to channel willing HIV negative clients from a free adult voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) service into a structured programme called the “prescreening protocol”, which is not HIV vaccine trial specific but is aimed at accumulating a cohort of potential volunteers for specific phase I/II trials as they become available. This recruitment protocol ensures that all potential HIV vaccine trial participants have the opportunity to lower their risk for acquiring HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases based on the advice received during risk reduction counseling sessions. In preparing for Phase I11 efficacy testing of promising HIV vaccine candidates, ethical issues concerning the potential cohorts that may be used and how efficacy will be established have arisen. Of great ethical importance is the proposed use of occupational cohorts, like gold miners that have historically been exploited, the participation of adolescents, the primary target group for an HIV vaccine and eventually also younger children and the equal distribution of men and women and individuals of all races in HIV vaccine research.
247
248 BACKGROUND The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that more than 60 million adults and children were living with HIV/AIDS in 2002, and that about 20 million people have already died of AIDS'. Sub-Saharan Africa is most severely affected and within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region there are approximately 24 million people living with HIV/AIDS. More specifically, in South Africa there is a significant burden of HIV infection with approximately 4.5 million people, 1 1.4% of all South Africans, living with HIV/AIDS with higher prevalence rates in young women reflecting their increased vulnerability to HIV infection'. In South Africa, there is no access within the public sector to effective and life saving antiretroviral drugs for infected individuals and despite ongoing preventative measures like intensive HIV education programmes and campaigns and freely available condoms there appears to be little impact in decreasing the number of infected individuals. Therefore, in the face of few affordable and effective long-term options to control the growing burden of HIV infection, a safe and effective preventative HIV vaccine remains an attractive goal for South Africa. However, the time-lines for development and availability of an effective HIV/AIDS vaccine for Africa remain unclear and distant even though, globally, over 80 candidate HIV vaccines of various designs, depending on different modes of inducing immune responses in recipients, containing different adjuvants and with different inserts are currently being tested in Phase I and I1 trials3. South African researchers have as yet to test a candidate HIV vaccine in Phase I, even though the infrastructure and human resources required for these trials have been established. There are many different reasons for this delay in testing HIV vaccines in Africa, however, the longer these delays remain unresolved, the longer it will take for an effective HIV vaccine to be found and more people will die from AIDS. The simplest issue to address has been to build up the relatively undeveloped clinical and laboratory infrastructure necessary to conduct highly stringent Federal Drug Administration (FDA) level phase VII HIV vaccine trials. In the past two years in South Africa, at least three potential phase I/II HIV vaccine testing sites have been developed with donor funding in already existing research structures in three provinces of South Africa (Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape)4. The placement of the sites was very dependant on whether existing research experience and infrastructure, including clinical and laboratory capability already existed at the sites. The greatest barriers that remain for HIV vaccine research are due to the extraordinary and inter-linked community, ethical, political, regulatory and scientific challenges associated with phase 1/11 and phase I11 HIV vaccine trials. Many of these challenges are the same for all HIV vaccine research whether they are early safety and immunogenicity trials involving hundreds of healthy, low-risk individuals or large scale, community based trials with high-risk individuals, however important differences will be highlighted and discussed separately. A critical aspect necessary for successfully completing HIV vaccine work, and to ultimately achieve an effective HIV vaccine for South Africa, is the recruitment of potential volunteers prepared to participate in this type of research. HIV vaccine trials can only be conducted in communities that thoroughly understand the issues around HIV
249
vaccine research and feel empowered to become actively involved in all aspects of this research. Forming, strengthening and maintaining relationships between HIV vaccine researchers and the communities they work in are essential to ensure true community participation in future HIV vaccine trials’. Communities are no longer seen as mere sources of volunteers, but rather as equal partners that can contribute to successful HIV vaccine research design and implementation. True community participation in research involves the creation of democratic systems that enable affected communities to become full collaborative partners in the research process. An open dialogue and formation of a formal democratically elected and representative “mediating” structure like a Community Advisory Board (CAB) that functions as a conduit between the researchers and communities is a very effective way to ensure that communities and individual research participants are fully informed when making the decision to participate in HIV vaccine research. In Soweto, initial activities to inform the community about HIV vaccines and the types of trials required to test them and prove their efficacy was done with a series of structured community outreach workshops of approximately 60-80 representatives of different governmental and “non governmental” organisations based in Soweto. Initially four community based HIV workshops were held in late 2001, however these events are now held annually to further increase the community understanding of HIV vaccine research. The first community workshop series was also used to help identify and establish a specific “vaccine orientated” CAB and a democratic election of 21 community members representing the youth, military and correctional services, traditional healers, church groups, health care workers and teachers, was established to be the CAB for a term of 2 years at the last workshop in 2001. It is envisaged that as the two year term of the first CAB comes to an end, at the end of 2003, a similar format will be used to elect new CAB members. An important lesson learnt from this HIV Vaccine workshop information strategy was the clear interest and need for disseminating information regarding HIV vaccines in Soweto. HIV vaccine research has been at the forefront of transforming the conventional researcher-study participant and community relationship in South Africa. The Soweto HIV Vaccine CAE3 have been directly involved in the key debates in developing country policy and approaches to phase VII HIV vaccine trials. Many of these are key issues surrounding the benefits (undue coercion; either financial or access to antiretroviral drugs) and risks (inter-current HIV infection and other serious side-effects) for individuals participating in HIV vaccine trials. Of particular concern to the CAB has been the delay and apparent slowness imposed on the research by the Medicines Control Council (MCC) and related regulatory process. The next important challenge was to establish a recruitment strategy in order to be able to accumulate, recruit and maintain well informed, suitable HTV negative volunteers from the community and guarantee their follow up over reasonable periods of time for phase VII HIV vaccine trials. Previously, exploitation of communities that provided most research participants occurred, especially when illiterate communities were approached to join research activities without true understanding of the consequences of this participation. Therefore a specific, innovative strategy had to be designed and employed to identify well-informed, suitable volunteers for HIV vaccine trials in Soweto. At HAVD this took the form of specifically designing, funding and implementing an investigator driven study called the “Prescreening Protocol”. The logical entry point for
250 HIV negative potential volunteers into the “prescreening protocol”, as in other African countries conducting HIV vaccine research, is from adult voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) centres6. Previously, VCT services provided by the PHRU were targeted to provide a service for pregnant women attending antenatal clinics as part of research to prevent mother to child transmission of HIV with the use of antiretroviral therapy. Therefore it was necessary to create a separate VCT service to allow men and women equal access to free HIV counseling and testing. So an adult VCT service was established linked to the existing HIV Vaccine clinic in February 2002. Posters and flyers advertising the service were distributed at bus and taxi ranks near the hospital and a large mural was painted on a wall outside the hospital compound. It took some time for the service to become known, and initially on average only about 58 clients accessed the free VCT per month. In 2002, from February to December a total of 643 clients were seen. By early 2003, news of the service had spread and the average number of clients attending had increased to 131 per month, so that from January to the end of May a total of 655 clients have already been seen. The demographics of clients accessing the VCT were also very interesting. Mainly young men between the ages of 25-35 years that are Soweto residents used the VCT service. The HIV prevalence at the VCT clinic, which obviously does not reflect the community prevalence, is 40%. All individuals found HIV positive during VCT are referred to the PHRU support groups and “Wellness Clinic” which although it does not provide antiretrovirals, can provide basic health care, screening for TB and antibiotics for the prevention of opportunistic infections. All HIV negative individuals are offered the chance to join the “prescreening protocol”. It is very carefully explained that this is not a vaccine trial, but a protocol to inform people, screen them and make sure that they are ready physically and mentally to enter an HIV vaccine trial if eventually they so wish. On average about 27 HIV negative individuals agree to join the prescreening protocol per month. These people are given appointment dates to return for the information visits of the protocol called “vaccine discussion groups”. Through the prescreening protocol, a prospective cohort study whereby HIV negative, healthy, well-informed, low-risk persons from South Africa who are eventually prepared to enter a specific HIV phase VII vaccine trial is conducted. The protocol is currently allowed to progress over a 36 to 48-month accrual period. Each participant must attend for a minimum two months of follow-up that includes at least two clinical and two non-clinical visits. Full participation in the cohort includes up to 14 different contacts with the research facility; 6 clinical and 8 non-clinical visits or VDG visits. At the start of the protocol, participants complete an assessment of understanding questionnaire (AOUQ) and a lifestyle questionnaire. Results of the lifestyle questionnaire are used to give tailor-made risk reduction counseling for each individual. The information given to participants during the VDG’s is in a “support-group’’ like structure and a fixed curriculum covering the basics of HIV and HIV vaccines, the risks and benefits of participating in this research, the participants bill of rights and the specifics of the HIV trials are all covered during these sessions. At the end of the 8 VDG sessions another AOUQ is administered to assess the current level of understanding of the potential participant. Participants must score 100% to be allowed to enroll in an HIV vaccine trial. During the prescreening protocol clinical visits, individuals are screened for HIV, other sexually transmitted diseases (hepatitis B, syphilis, gonorrhoea, chlamydia), pregnancy and indicators of general health (liver function, full blood count and kidney function).
251
Ultimately only healthy, low risk, HIV negative volunteers can be enrolled in HIV vaccine trials, so participant review from the prescreening protocol occurs every 2-3 months and individuals can be appropriately referred out of the protocol if necessary. From December 2001 when the first participants started to enter the prescreening protocol until the end of June 2003, 240 people have been recruited of which 179 have completed (74.5% retention rate) and 122, i.e. 68%, are eligible for vaccine trial participation. The attrition rate from VCT to potential suitable participants for HIV vaccine trials is considerable with only 50% of individuals identified as H N negative agreeing to be part of the prescreening protocol, and eventually only two thirds of these individuals actually continuing with the process and being found suitable to enter into a vaccine trial, if they still want to. The attrition from eligible to actual participants is still not known and will be apparent as enrollment for HIV vaccine trials begin in September 2003. It is essential for South Africa to start planning and to develop the appropriate capability to test future preventative HIV vaccines that have gone through preliminary phase I and I1 testing in phase I11 trials. Currently there is only one established phase I11 testing site in South Africa (the MRC-Africa Centre-University of Natal Hlabisa site). However, microbicide research has already started in this community thus limiting the eligible cohorts for Phase I11 vaccine efficacy trials. So many more sites will be required if South Africa is to be well prepared to do large-scale efficacy trials with favourable vaccine candidates as efficiently, quickly and as safely as possible. Planning for phase I11 trials is an essential part of the national HIV vaccine plan and will require collaboration within the Southern Africa region between multiple study sites in order to achieve the large numbers of individuals or volunteers that will be necessary for these large-scale phase I11 studies needed to prove vaccine efficacy. South Africa offers several advantages that will enable phase I11 studies to be done quickly and efficiently, including higher HIV incidence rates in parts of the country that will greatly facilitate trials to evaluate the protective efficacy of HIV vaccines and access to a variety of cohorts especially if it is necessary to evaluate vaccine efficacy against different routes of transmission (heterosexual and perinatal). Expanding the network of potential phase I11 sites has already started, with formal networks of demographic surveillance system (DSS) sites located in Africa and Asia, known as the INDEPTH (International Network for the Demographic sites) Network, are joining up to conduct future vaccine and related clinical and community trials. This system will increase phase I11 capability in many developing countries of the world, especially in Africa where the majority of the INDEPTH sites are based. South Africa has also started to explore the various ethical challenges of conducting phase I11 HIV vaccine trials. The constant question from CAB and community members is how will HIV vaccine efficacy be proven and a lot of effort needs to be made to dispel the misconceptions that exist within theses communities that people will be exposed to H N on purpose. Other phase I11 initiatives using occupational cohorts based on gold mines in South Africa have also started and the use of occupational cohorts, especially in mines, which historically have been associated with exploitation of workers, is an important ethical and moral challenge. Finally, there has been considerable debate in South Afiica about the use of adolescents in phase I11 trials. The proponents that argue for the use of adolescents in HIV vaccine trials base their arguments on the fact that this
252 is the group that will, eventually, be the prime target of an HIV vaccine and that they are physiologically different from adults. People arguing against the use of adolescents in phase I11 trials give evidence that there are no physiological differences, there are many problems with adolescents consenting themselves to participate in HIV vaccine research and that there has been no precedent with other viral vaccines to show that adolescents respond differently to them. As South Africans embark on testing HIV-preventative vaccines in phase HI, there are still many important issues and challenges that must not be forgotten. The issue of “therapeutic” HIV vaccination is very important in a country with 4.5 million infected people and must be pursued. HIV vaccine access, once licensure has been granted, must be ensured in the countries that most require it. The tragedies of expensive and inaccessible antiretroviral drugs in the developing countries of the world with the most need must not be repeated. REFERENCES
1.
UNAIDS 2002. Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Geneva. UNAIDS. UNAIDS 2001.
2.
Human Sciences Research Council 2002. Nelson MandeldHSRC Study of HIV/AIDS. South African National Behavioural Risks and Mass Media, Household Survey 2002. Cape Town. Human Sciences Research Council 2002.
3.
HVTN 2003..http:\\www.org.nt
4.
Vardas E, Slack C. Getting HIV vaccine trials started in Soweto. Continuing Medical Education, September 2002,20(9); 593-594.
5.
Vardas E, Mogale M, Maketla M, A Mafokhola, Mntambo M, Gray G. The HIV vaccine community outreach programme and the establishment of a dedicated vaccine community advisory board (CAB) in Soweto, South Africa. International AIDS Conference, Poster Number ThPeD7712, Barcelona. 2002.
6.
Kaleebu P. Experiences and results of Uganda’s first HIV vaccine trial and preparations for the second. Retroviruses of Human AIDS and Related Animal Viruses. XIII” Cent Gardes Symposium. Paris. Nov 2002.
9.
WATER CONFLICTS
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THE POLITICS OF WATER FARHANG MEHR University of Boston, Boston, USA The scarcity of water at a global level is becoming a planetary emergency. Population growth, urbanization, intensive cropping, the diversion of traditionally shared waters as well as the drainage and construction of dams on shared rivers by upstream countries have all contributed to the unfair distribution of water and thus increased the political tensions in many regions. Forty percent of the world’s population faces a water shortage. Currently, the World Bank lists 102 countries as having a water shortage crisis; of these 22 are listed as severe, the remainder as serious. The crisis exists because of a gradual increase in the demand for water. Eighty five percent of the water is allocated for agricultural and industrial usage. The consumption of water in the developed world is ten times more than that consumed in the developing world. Compounded with the resulting famine, and hygiene-related illnesses, the cost of the crisis is further magnified in the poor countries. To date no international mediator exists to regulate a fair and equitable division of water, nor do adequate international laws regulating equitable division of rivers by adjacent countries exist. Aside from the question of boundaries and the right of navigation, the issue of control and disposition of the waters of international rivers is closely tied to the water shortage crisis. An international river is a watercourse that runs through more than one territorial jurisdiction, or forms the boundaries between two or more states. In most cases, discord results when both the upper and lower riparian states of an international river claim fill control and absolute jurisdiction over the disposal of water. Two alternatives exist for resolving this conflict of interest: (1) subject the control and disposal of the water to a community of riparian states or countries through which the river flows or (2) create an international regime which provides the laws and the effective means for their enforcement. It is in the Middle East and Northern Africa that the implementation of these alternatives could be most effective. The water crisis in the Middle East is alarming. Nearly every leader in this region has warned that solving the water problem is essential to the tenuous peace in the Middle East. In a region already marred by numerous territorial disputes, armed confrontations,political differences and religious enmity, their concerns that a water shortage will spark more frequent and escalated clashes is well founded. The present conflict over control of the Nile River is one example. The Nile River originates from two sources: the Blue Nile River flows from Lake Tana in Ethiopia while the White Nile River flows ffom Lake Victoria in Uganda. The White Nile is 5,584 lun long; the Blue Nile flows a distance of 1,529 km from its source in Lake Tana. Both rivers joint in Khartoum, Sudan and then flow on to Egypt, which is exceptionally arid. Approximately 85% of the water that Egypt consumes annually for agriculture and otherwise originates ffom the Blue Nile River while the remainder comes from the White Nile. Concern for the free flow of the Nile River has therefore shaped Egypt’s policies towards its neighbors. In fact, Boutros Boutros Ghali, when serving as Egypt’s foreign
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256 minister, said, “The national security of Egypt is in the hands of eight other African countries in the Nile basin.” The extent of this precarious position has become apparent with Ethiopia and Sudan’s plans to build hydroelectric dams on the Nile that would affect the flow of water to Egypt. Within Ethiopia, the Blue Nile is 960 km long and has an annual flow of approximately 55 million cubic meters, constituting the major portion of the Nile. In fact, over an entire year, about 86% of the Nile’s waters originate from Ethiopia; in contrast, the White Nile contributes only 14%. While Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan recognize the international character of the Blue Nile, they have not come to an agreement on their equitable use of the water. The control and the disposal of the waters of the Blue Nile between Egypt and Ethiopia has been an ongoing issue since 1902. Acting on behalf of Egypt, Great Britain signed a treaty with Ethiopia in 1902 whereby the latter agreed to refrain from constructing any device that would obstruct the flow of waters into the Nile, without the prior consent of ,Britain and Egypt’s southern neighbor, Sudan. However, the AngloEthiopian Treaty was never ratified by the British Parliament or by the Ethiopian Crown Council. Since 1956, Ethiopia has claimed that its plans to build dams on the Nile are not in violation of any outstanding international treaties. The Egyptian government, arguing otherwise, most recently stated in 1991 that it was ready to use force to protect its access to the Nile. Over the years, the Ethiopian government has argued that the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Agreement has no legal basis to control its actions. The 1929 Agreement stipulated that “no irrigation or power works or measures are to be constructed or taken on the River Nile or its tributaries or on lakes from which it flows in so far as all these are in the Sudan or in countries under British administration, which would entail prejudice to the interest of Egypt.” According to Ethiopia, the Agreement, although limiting actions of the Sudan, and British colonies, does not prevent Ethiopia who was never subject to “British administration” from building structures on the Nile River. Furthermore, even if Ethiopia were subject to the agreement, it could declare the agreement void since it preserves and promotes Egypt’s rights and interests without providing any reciprocal consideration. In addition, Ethiopia has argued that it has a right to exploit the waters in its own territory for development purposes, much as Egypt has done with the building of the High Aswan Dam. Ethiopia chose not to recognize the Agreement of 1959 between Egypt and Sudan on the division of the Nile. The Agreement gave Egypt 75% of the waters of the Nile (55.5 billion cubic meters) and 25% to the Sudan (18.5 cm3 billion). In 1959, the Sudan agreed to the building of the Aswan Dam by Egypt and Egypt agreed to the building of a dam by the Sudan on the Nile. The 1959 treaty stated that Sudan and Egypt had “acquired rights” in the Nile water and refers to them as having “full control of the river.” The High Aswan Dam was completed in 1971, despite Ethiopia’s protests. It enabled Egypt to significantly increase its crop production and the country’s agricultural yield. The High Aswan Dam also enabled Egypt to use far more of the annual flow of the Nile River (approximately 80 cubic kilometers) than any of the other eight nations along the Nile River: Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya and the Congo. Since as early as 1927, and again in the mid-fifties, Ethiopia has explored the possibility of building a dam on Lake Tana, a project that has taken on a greater urgency in recent years.
257 Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan all face rapid population growth and a greater projected increase in their need for water. The population of Egypt, which grows by more than one million annually, has been projected to reach 85 million by the year 2015. Projected water deficits threaten Egypt’s agriculture and industry. The growth of Islamic radicalism in Egypt and Sudan makes a water shortage, in both Egypt and the Sudan, a further threat to peace and security in the region. Ethiopia now has a population nearly the size of Egypt’s. It is predicted that by 2025, Ethiopia’s population could be 112 million, double its current level. Also, the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s that repeatedly struck Ethiopia, causing great loss of life and considerable poverty, have emphasized the need for Ethiopia to take remedial measures and ensure that it is able to feed its population. Ethiopia began the first phase of building its $300 million Tana Beles project in 1988. The project aimed at doubling Ethiopia’s hydroelectric power and providing for irrigation by a plan to take water from Lake Tana to the Beles River over which five dams were to be built and resettle approximately 200,000 farmers. However, Ethiopia was unable to receive the required loan from the African Development Bank, some argue, because of Egypt’s interference. In August 2002, Ethiopia began construction on a $224 million hydroelectric dam in a joint venture project with the China Natural Water Resources Hydropower Engineering Corporation. The dam will be 185 meters high (10 meters higher than China’s controversial Three Gorges Dam project) and is expected to take five years to complete. The Tekeze Dam (built on the Tekeze River, a tributary of the Nile flowing into Eritrea) will help to irrigate large tracts of land in northern Ethiopia. Sudan is also preparing to build a $1.73 billion dam on the Nile, in the country’s northern region in order to reduce flooding and to provide more electricity. The Hamdab Dam in Merowe, north of Khartoum, will triple electricity production in Sudan. The dam, which is expected to be completed in six years, will have a capacity of 1,250 megawatts. By supplementing the 250 Mw generated by the smaller Rosairis dam built by Sudan on the Nile, the Hamdab Dam will increase power production significantly. In 1999, Egypt also began digging a canal, ironically called the Salam or Peace Canal, aimed at carrying 12.5 million cubic meters a day of fresh Nile water into Northern Sinai by traversing the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The $1.4 billion project will enable Egypt to irrigate 400,000 acres of new farmland and open up a region populated by approximately 300,000 people to three million people. Ethiopia and Sudan have voiced their opposition to this project. In the absence of a treaty, there is no rule of international law to obligate a riparian state to obtain consent of other riparian states in changing the course or quantity of water by building a dam or canal. Nor is there any law restricting the upstream riparian state from building dams or a hydroelectric power plant on the river to the detriment of the downstream riparian state. A legal body with enforcement machinery is needed to resolve these issues, monitor compliance with treaties and prevent the countries from entering armed conflicts over water. Although the median line on the Hirmand River has never been disputed as part of the border between the riparian states, the respective rights of both Iran and Afghanistan over the disposal of its water has been a matter of dispute for over 120 years. The Hirmand River originates in Afghanistan and empties into the Hamoon Lake, located in the Sistan region of Iran. The economy of the Zabol, the capital of Sistan, depends solely
258 on this lake and on the water of the Hirmand River. Prior to the formation of the independent state of Afghanistan, the control of distribution of the water of the Hirmand River was not a subject of dispute. In 1872, the British General Goldsmid, arbitrating the Iran-Afghanistan border included the following in his award: “The parties should not resort to any act that would result in the disruption of the water presently used by the other side”. The status quo was in essence endorsed. Estimated statistics indicate that two thirds of the water at that time was used by Iran. In 1909, G.P. Tate, a British officer, reported that the area of the Hamoon Lake was 150,OO square miles and the water input by the Hirmand River at its high, no less than 20,000 cubic feet per second. In 1905, the British Colonel Henry McMahon, following a dispute over water in 1903, changed General Goldsmid’s award of 1872. He ruled two thirds of the Hirmand’s waters as belonging to Afghanistan, and the remaining third to Iran. Iran objected and asked for another arbitration that never came to fruition. In a subsequent treaty, the two countries in 1939 agreed to the equal division of the waters. Between 1945-1949, Afghanistan constructed several dams and diverted canals on the Hirmand, thus reducing the amount of water entering the Hamoon Lake. In the midst of the Cold War and concerned with maintaining stability in the politically strategic region, the United States, in 1948, mediated a new agreement between the two countries. The agreement although not formally accepted by either side, became the de facto agreement between them. Upon coming to power in the 1990s, the Taliban government of Afghanistan disregarded this de facto agreement. Four years of drought in conjunction with an active policy by the Taliban of diverting the rivers flow into Afghanistan, has dried up the Hamoon Lake, ruined an ecological habitat and resulted in mass population migration from the area. The water crisis in the Middle East is not limited to Iran and Afghanistan. After the signing of the 1979 peace treaty with Israel, President Anwar Sadat of Egypt predicted that the next war, should it erupt, would be over water. King Hussein of Jordan and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin of Israel expressed similar concerns with Rabin stating, “If we solve every other problem of the Middle East, but do not satisfactorily resolve the water problem, our region will explode. Peace will not be possible.” A principal reason for Israel to prolong the occupation of the Palestinian lands, both the Gaza strip and the West Bank, is linked to the use of underground water in the area and control of the Jordan River. The main water sources for Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and Syria, are the Jordan River, the Yarmuk (a tributary of the Jordan River), and indirectly the Euphrates, as well as underground sources. The salty water of the Sea of Galilee is unsuitable for agriculture. The Jordan and Yarmuk rivers supply 40% of Israel’s fresh water, 70% of which is used for agriculture. Eighty percent of the renewable water resources of the mountain aquifers in that region are exploited by Israel. The controversial truce between the Arab states and Israel, after the creation of the later state in 1948, did not create any arrangement for the use of shared waters in the region. Numerous confrontations arose between Israel and her neighbors. In response to the 1951 Syrian-Israel border clashes over water, the Eisenhower administration proposed a plan for an equitable distribution of the water resources. The Arab states rejected the plan arguing that Israel should not be entitled to 33% of flow of the Jordan River when only 23% originates in Israel.
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In 1956, Israel adopted the National Water Carrier Project or Jordan Project. Completed in 1964, the project linked the regional water projects throughout Israel and transported water from Lake Kinneret in the north to the dry Mitzpe Ramon in the south. With tensions between Israel and the Arab states mounting, the Arab states decided to divert the Jordan River’s water at the source thus depriving Israel of the River’s water. The Israel air raids of Syria came in April 1967, followed by the Six Day War two months later. The conflicts were based on territorial and water claims, a fact that was confirmed by Ariel Sharon who has said: “People generally regard June 5, 1967, as the day the Six Day War began. That is the official date, but in reality it started two and a half years earlier on the day Israel decided to act against the diversion of the Jordan River.” This conflict played out among the Arab states as well. In 1975, Syria and Iraq nearly went to war over the Euphrates River. The building of the Keban Dam in 1965 in southern Anatolia by Turkey and the Tabqa Dam by Syria in the mid-1960s and early 1970s significantly increased the tensions in the region. Only half of Syria’s land is arable and only about 30% of that half is under cultivation. Half of Syria’s water is supplied by the Euphrates and the rest from other rivers and underground resources. Although bilateral and tripartite meetings had taken place among the three riparian states since the mid-l960s, with occasional Soviet involvement, no formal agreements had been reached by the time the dams were filled. Although Syria in 1974 agreed to an Iraqi request that Syria allow an additional flow of water from the Tabqa Dam, by 1975 the amount of the water flow was in dispute and Iraq asked the Arab League to intervene. A technical committee was set up by the Arab League to mediate the conflict but Syria, after defending its actions, pulled out of the meetings and closed its airspace to Iraqi flights. Both Iraq and Syria were reported to have transferred troops to their mutual border. Through Saudi mediation, the parties were able to resolve their conflicts and, on June 3, 1975, entered into an agreement that averted the impending war. The terms of the agreement were not made public although it has been written that under the agreement, Syria was allowed to keep 40% of the flow of Euphrates within its borders while the rest was allowed to flow through to Iraq. The Southeast Anatolia Development Project, which consists of a massive project to build 21 dams and 19 hydroelectric plants on both the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers, has again increased tensions between Syria, Iraq and Turkey. If completed as planned, the Project could significantly reduce downstream water quantity and quality. In 1980, Iraq and Turkey established a Protocol of the Joint Economic Committee to address the issues. In 1983, Syria joined the discussions but the meetings of the group have been intermittent and with limited success. Turkey and Syria signed an agreement in 1987, reportedly, but whether the agreement addressed Syria’s needs is not clear. Meetings between the three countries in the 1990s have similarly not resolved the potential water crisis. Like Syria, Jordan also faces a looming water crisis. Jordan shares both the Jordan and Yarmuk rivers with Israel and Syria. The river Zaqa is the only river exclusively supplying Jordan. At present, several Jordanian cities have rationed their water supply, and use the drip irrigation system as means of avoiding water shortage in an attempt to avoid a catastrophe as the regions’ population growth continues. How can we solve the water crisis in the Middle East and North Africa?
260 This escalating shortage of water can be met through the availability of more per capita fresh water. This can be achieved by educating people on the importance of preventing water waste and through population control. As controversial policies in Peru and China demonstrate, population control can only be achieved through the voluntary participation of the people involved; any policies tied to quotas will only breed hostility towards those implementing the policy. Similarly, water conservation requires changes in the use of water at the corporate, governmental and individual levels. Programs committed to recycling used water, including wastewater treatment plants, should be pursued. The dearth of media programs on the current water crisis is surprising. By initiating programs aimed at educating the public about the current shortages and the importance of water preservation, governments can begin to spread awareness of the issue. There are countries in the Middle East that do not face an immediate water crisis. However, with the adoption of erroneous policies they risk a water shortage in the near future. Turkey, a water rich nation by Middle Eastern standards, may soon face a political crisis if some of her over-ambitious projects are not abandoned. Turkey has extensive plans to construct dams to increase its water resources and hydroelectric power supplies. The Anatolia project for example, will result in the construction of 22 dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, a detriment to both Syria and Iraq. To raise revenues for this project, Turkey is selling water from the Manavgat River to countries across the region, including Israel. While ambitious, Turkey’s plans will most likely lead to a zero net gain or loss of water in itself, while creating tensions with its neighbors in Syria and Iraq. Iran, with similar plans, is selling water to Kuwait. Without evidence that such plans can succeed in the long run, it is dangerous for countries with marginal water surpluses to adopt them. The improvement of desalination technology is promising as a means to meet the challenge posed by the water crisis. Although pioneered by the United States, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Israel and Germany are involved in serious and persistent research and have contributed significantly to making the process less expensive and therefore more practical as a solution to the water crisis. The experience of Saudi Arabia with desalination is worth noting. Extremely arid, Saudi Arabia’s terrain is 92% desert, with a low rainfall, depleted deep underground aquifers, almost no rivers and a fast growing population. Saudi Arabia has overcome these unfavorable natural disadvantages thanks to the foresight of its leaders and its substantial oil revenues. Through desalination plants, Saudi Arabia currently produces over 800 million gallons of fresh water per day, which amounts to 20% of its total consumption, the remainder being obtained from underground aquifers. Once a net food importer, Saudi Arabia now exports food and stockpiles wheat. Saudi Arabia currently exports water to Egypt. At present there are about 11,000 desalination plants in 120 countries, more than half in the Middle East. Although the cost for desalination has decreased, it is still more expensive than fresh water. Also important is the reduction or elimination in the “green house warming” phenomenon, sulfur dioxide from cars and factories that contribute to the pollution of water supplies. It is particularly in this area that cooperation among different countries is important. This brings me to suggest the importance of creating a body under the
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auspices of the United Nations that should be devoted to resolving the impending global water crisis. Given the politics of water, the importance of creating a legitimate, nongovernmental organization devoted to finding equitable resolutions to issues arising from water related conflicts cannot be overemphasized. This includes resolving conflicts with regard to existing treaties, amending them to ensure that they are equitable and just and enforcing treaties that are being violated prior to outbreak of armed conflicts. The organization can also devise means to finally resolve long-standing conflicts where treaties have either never been adopted or are contested by a party. By facilitating discussions and negotiations leading to agreements for shared use of rivers by riparian countries, this organization could find the means of resolving long standing disputes. Such an organization can ensure that the treaties related to the control and utilization of shared waters proceed on the basis of mutuality, reciprocal obligations, equitable apportionment of the waters and a benefit system that is aimed at implementing what is just and reasonable. In determining what is just and reasonable, the following factors should be taken into account: historical background, population, development needs of the country, the extent of dependency of each state on the waters in question; the economic and social gains accruing from the alternative uses of the waters in question to the respective state and the entire region, as well as the physical and climatic conditions repercussions of a given decision. Finally, such an organization could devote resources to gathering existing research on water related issues including hydrological studies and finding efficient means of sharing such knowledge among countries facing similar crises. Only by recognizing that the current water crisis is global can we begin to address it. Some important steps have been taken in this direction. In 1997, with the support of the World Bank and the IUCN - the World Conservation Union, a World Commission on Dams was formed to evaluate the effectiveness of large dams for developmental purposes and to suggest criteria and standards for analyzing them. Upon publishing its report in November 2000, the Commission disbanded. The United Nations Environment Program has begun a Dams and Development Project (DDP) with the stated mission of improving decision-making, planning and management of dams and their alternatives. Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have agreed to design a project that will enable them to jointly utilize the Tekeze, Baro, Akobo and Nile rivers effectively and equitably. The success of the committee established to formulate this project will be important for the stability of the region. Similarly, the Nile basin countries have set up a Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat at Entebbe, Uganda to enable them to unite in the pursuit of sustainable development and management of the Nile. Despite these positive developments, the current policies and on-going trends in population growth and water consumption make a global water crisis unavoidable. It is my hope that by recognizing the crisis and committing to its resolutions that governments will find a means to ensure that the crisis does not become a catastrophe.
262 REFERENCES 1.
D.P. O’Connel, “International Law”, Vol.1 , second edition, London 1970.
2.
Paul Simon, “Tapped Out: The coming world crisis in water and what we can do about it”, New York 2001.
3.
Pirouz Mojtahed-Zadeh, “Evolution of Eastern Iranian Boundaries”, Ph.D. Thesis, University of London 1993.
3.
G.P. Tate, “The Frontier of Balouchistan: Travel on the border of Persia, and Afghanistan”, London 1909.
4.
Daniel Kendie, “Egypt and Hydro-Politics of the Blue Nile River”, Academic Forum.
5.
Alan J.A. “The Nile: Sharing a Scarce Resource”, Cambridge University Press 1996.
Also News Articles from New York Times, The Washington Post and The BBC.
THE UTILIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES FOR AGRICULTURE IN SYRIA: ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGES M. SALMAN PTRID, AGL, FAO, Rome, Italy W. MUALLA Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Damascus, Damascus, Syria INTRODUCTION The countries of the Middle East are characterized by large temporal and spatial variations in precipitation and by limited surface and groundwater resources. The rapid growth and development in the region have led to mounting pressures on scarce resources to satisfy water demands. The dwindling availability of water to meet development needs has become a significant regional issue, especially as a number of countries are facing serious water deficits (ESCWA, 1998). For Syria, located along the Mediterranean shores of the Middle East, water is becoming progressively scarcer as demand comes close or even surpasses available resources (Varela-Ortega and Sagardoy, 2002). Syria had a population of 18 million in 2002, and its Total Renewable Water Resources (TRWR) is estimated to be around 16 BCM per year. In other words, the per capita TRWR is less than the water scarcity index (1000 m3/person/year).Although this would still rank Syria amongst countries with moderate water stress, it will be soon classified as a country with severe water stress if its population continues to grow at its current rate (about 3%) and water use efficiency is not effectively increased (Mualla and Salman, 2002). In Syria, and until fairly recently, emphasis has been put on the supply side of water development. Demand management and improvement of patterns of water use have received less attention. Water managers and planners have given high priority to locating; developing and managing new water resources. The aim was always to augment the national water budget with new water. The most popular way of achieving this aim was to control surface flows by building new dams and creating multi-purpose reservoirs (there are now around 160 dams in Syria with a total capacity of 14 BCM). Imgation schemes were also built and agricultural activities were greatly expanded to achieve self-sufficiency in essential food products and food security. Over the years, however, the most attractive alternatives for the development of water resources infrastructure have already been implemented and it is hard to think of feasible alternatives for a further increase in supply. In addition, the cost of developing less accessible water is high and time consuming. Therefore, the emphasis must now be shifted and a new vision of the utilization of water resources for agriculture must be valorized. This paper provides a brief background on water supply and use in Syria. It describes the pressure on water resources for agriculture, analyses key issues and constraints facing this sector, and proposes a set of recommendations for efficient utilization.
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WATER SUPPLY AND USE IN SYRIA In Syria, the total estimated water use volume is about 15 billion m3. The Euphrates and Orontes basins account for about 50% and 20% of the water use respectively. Table 1 shows water availability and use in the various basins of Syria. As shown in this table, water balance in most basins has been in deficit (except in the coastal basin and the Euphrates basin). This will be exacerbated further, especially in those basins encompassing large urban areas such as Damascus and Aleppo.
Table 1.: Water availability and use (Adapted from 2001 World Bank Report).
with highest from the sector. domi Imgation demand Domestic ema Industrial Total Use agriculture Water Deficit Resources
Basin
(m.m3)
(m.m3)
I
Yarmouk
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