Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects

Advance Praise for

REIHVEHTInB COLLHPSE D m i t r y Orlov brings a penetrating intelligence to a subject few dare to face squarely: the i m p e n d i n g tragic implosion of the American D r e a m . H e writes with assurance, clarity and wit f r o m a singular point-of-view — someone w h o has witnessed the prior Soviet crack-up. This b o o k is indispensable for anyone w h o seeks to u n derstand the economic storm that is about to make landfall on our shores. —

JAMES H O W A R D K U N S T L E R

Author of The Long Emergency

Be prepared to have your window shoved open and feel the fresh air shake you up. But don't worry, reading D m i t r y Orlov usually j u s t means gaining special insights with a strange, h u m o r o u s twist. D m i t r y is unique, contributing mightily to the vital b u t suppressed discussion of collapse a n d rebirth. — JAN LUNDBERG, Culture Change

Unlike many commentators, Orlov has seen collapse first h a n d , in the Former Soviet U n i o n — there aren't too many books about the impending collapse of civilization that make you laugh out loud, b u t Reinventing

Collapse is one of t h e m . —

BART ANDERSON,

energybulletin.net

Heretical, hysterically funny, always on point, deeply perceptive - D m i t r y Orlov has been t h r o u g h a societal collapse and come out the other side. O n t h a t other side is a fascinating view of contemporary American society, a good deal of wisdom and a surprising a m o u n t of h o p e - not t h a t some magical transformation will fix everything for us, b u t t h a t even the collapse of empire is not the end of the world. —

SHARON ASTYK,

author of

Depletion &• Abundance: Life on the New Home Front and blogger, www.sharonastyk.com

Orlov's Russian perspective on the American collapse is valuable n o t j u s t for its predictions, b u t for its attitude: economic collapse is not an unthinkable horror, b u t a routine a n d fascinating part of history, and if you find yourself in one, you should look a r o u n d . — RAN PRIEUR, ranprieur.com

D m i t r y Orlov has set o u t to write a gloomy comparison of what h a p p e n e d to Russia at the end of the Soviet Empire and h o w illprepared the American Empire is for the same fate, and ended u p writing something wickedly funny, profoundly h o p e f u l and filled with good advice. H i s advice is not to avoid collapse, that would be futile, b u t to prosper and thrive in the midst of it. —

ALBERT BATES,

attorney, inventor, and author of

The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook

Dmitry OrLou

F! E 111 V E n TI KdlllOl The Souiet Example and American Prospects

N E W SOCIETY PUBLISHERS

C A T A L O G I N G IN PUBLICATION

DATA:

A catalog record for t h i s p u b l i c a t i o n is available f r o m t h e N a t i o n a l L i b r a r y of C a n a d a . C o p y r i g h t © 2008 by D m i t r y Orlov. All rights reserved. C o v e r design by D i a n e M c i n t o s h . P r i n t e d in C a n a d a . First p r i n t i n g A p r i l 2008. P a p e r b a c k ISBN: 978-0-86571-606-3

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Collapse

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CONTENTS

Introduction 1

vii

T h e Soviet Example

1

The Collapse of the Soviet Union: An Overview

7

My Return to Russia

9

My Premise 2

15

S u p e r p o w e r Similarities

19

The Myth of Inclusiveness

•

25

The Cost of Technological Progress

33

Militarism

••

World's Jailers

3

23

Technological Progress

35 42

Evil Empires

47

Bankruptcy

49

Collapse of Legitimacy

52

T h e Collapse G a p

59

Collapses in General

60

Housing

62

Transportation

66

Employment

69

Families

73

Money

76

Consumerism

79

Food

82

Medicine

89

Education

93

Ethnicity

98

Religion

100

Energy.

101

Inevitable Conclusion

105

v

CONTENTS

VI

4

Collapse Mitigation Reasonable Expectations Political Solutions

5

6

• • HO H3

Private Sector Solutions

H5

Activism and Apathy

H6

Boondoggles to the Rescue!

118

Investment Advice

120

D o It Yourself

122

Adaptation

125

Loss of "Normalcy"

126

Smelling the Roses

12&

Comforts and Necessities

130

Surviving Radical Cashectomy

132

The Revised Playbook

134

Lowering Your Standards

135

Playing the Part

137

The Settled and the Nomadic

139

Career O p p o r t u n i t i e s

143

Asset Stripping

144

Drugs and Alcohol

146

Providing Security

147

Serving Your Country

149

Alternative Medicine

151

Alternative Transportation

152

Social Work in the H o m e

154

In Conclusion

159

Index

161

A b o u t the A u t h o r .

165

INTRODUCTION

I a m n o t an expert or a scholar or an activist. I a m m o r e of an eyewitness. I watched t h e Soviet U n i o n collapse a n d this has given m e the necessary insights to describe w h a t the A m e r i c a n collapse will look like. It has been a couple of years since I started writing on the subject of economic collapse as it occurred in t h e Soviet U n i o n a n d as it is likely to occur here in the U n i t e d States. T h u s far, I remain reasonably content w i t h m y predictions: all t h e pieces of t h e collapse scenario I imagined are lining up, slowly b u t surely. But for m e it all started late in the s u m m e r of 1996, w h e n I arrived in t h e U S after an extended stay in Russia. I was j u s t married a n d my t h o u g h t s t u r n e d to the future. I h a d visited Russia m a n y times before, on family visits as well as on business trips, a n d was able to observe in detail t h e fall of C o m m u n i s m a n d t h e ensuing economic collapse. Unlike t h e people w h o h a d lived there t h r o u g h o u t t h a t period, a n d also unlike those w h o h a d visited j u s t once or twice, I was able to notice b o t h t h e gradual changes a n d t h e s u d d e n ones. Because I was b o r n a n d grew u p in Russia, I was n o t t h w a r t e d by any cultural or linguistic barriers. It was j u s t t h e place where I grew up, in s o m e ways remarkably u n c h a n g e d after m o r e t h a n a decade of absence, b u t in o t h e r ways it h a d u n d e r g o n e a remarkable transformation. By t h e t i m e my wife a n d I settled back in t h e States, I h a d seen a n d heard enough to grasp t h e complete a n d u t t e r hollowness of b o m b a s t i c phrases such as "the defeat of C o m m u n i s m " or "Cold W a r victory." For a time, there was even talk of t h e Cold W a r paying a dividend, b u t it was soon followed by recriminations over "who lost Russia." I h a d already u n d e r s t o o d t h a t t h e Soviet collapse h a d precious little to d o w i t h C o m m u n i s t ideology, a n d was n o t hugely influenced by anything Americans said or did. Rather, I could n o t help b u t feel t h a t t h e relative timing of the collapse of the two superpower adversaries was a m a t t e r of luck. A n d so I came back to the

VII

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States expecting that the second superpower shoe would be d r o p ping sometime soon, certainly within my lifetime, and the question for me became: H o w soon? Let us imagine t h a t collapsing a m o d e r n military-industrial superpower is like making soup: chop u p some ingredients, apply heat and stir. T h e ingredients I like to p u t in my superpower collapse soup are: a severe and chronic shortfall in the production of crude oil (that magic addictive elixir of industrial economies), a severe and worsening foreign trade deficit, a runaway military budget and ballooning foreign debt. T h e heat and agitation can be provided most efficaciously by a humiliating military defeat a n d widespread fear of a looming catastrophe. In the Soviet case, crude oil production peaked a few years before the collapse, foreign trade imbalance had much to d o with the Soviets' inability to grow enough food or m a n u f a c t u r e enough consumer goods, the military budget was huge to start with and was f u r t h e r swelled by the Soviets' knee-jerk response to a silly thing called "Star Wars," Afghanistan provided the military humiliation and C h e r n o b y l the backdrop of catastrophe. It took a couple of decades for the United States to catch up, b u t now all the ingredients are in the p o t a n d starting to simmer. U S crude oil p r o d u c t i o n peaked in 1970 a n d global (conventional) crude oil p r o d u c t i o n appears to have peaked sometime in 2005, with all of the largest oil fields in terminal decline and global oil exports set to start crashing. T h e trade imbalance is such that the U S produces little of the high technology on which it depends, having exported j o b s and moved p r o d u c t i o n offshore for over a generation now. A l t h o u g h the U S grows enough food to feed itself, it imports the fossil fuels with which to grow it and deliver it, at a ratio of roughly ten calories of fossil fuels to one calorie of food. T h e runaway military budget, which now stands at one trillion dollars a year, has been swelled by something called t h e " W a r on Terror." T h e situation with regard to runaway foreign debt is slightly different: it is d e n o m i n a t e d in Americas own currency, giving the U S the option of inflating it away rather t h a n defaulting o n its obligations. But the results are the same: a worthless national currency and u n h a p p y

INTRODUCTION

IX

international creditors unwilling to extend f u r t h e r credit. Iraq provides the needed military defeat and killer hurricanes that are p a r t of global climate upheaval the fear of a catastrophe. Let us n o t even try to imagine that this will all j u s t blow over. M a k e no mistake about it: this soup will be served, and it will not be tasty! M y soup-based m e t h o d of predicting superpower collapse may not please a scholar or an expert or an activist (as I mentioned, I am n o n e of these) b u t it is probably rigorous enough to adequately warn a n d equip an innocent bystander. I am n o t too interested in constructing rigorous scientific models and producing forecasts. N o r do I wish to set agendas, p r o m o t e reforms or take part in protests. T r y to form a picture in your mind: it is a superpower, it is huge, it is powerful, and it is going to come crashing d o w n . You or me trying to do something about it would have the same effect as you or me wiggling our toes at a tsunami. N o r d o I wish to force my opinions on you, so please form your own. But I d o want to guide your imagination by providing a lot of real world detail about an actual economic collapse that has recently transpired, along with some honest, apples-to-apples, oranges-to-oranges comparisons between the U n i t e d States a n d the Soviet Union, to serve as a foundation for setting some c o m m o n s e n s e expectations a n d making your own plans, separately f r o m the happy toe-wiggling masses. People generally find it h a r d to act on knowledge that contradicts their everyday experience. T h e experience m u s t come first, even if it is second-hand; hence all the s u p p o r t groups for people w h o want to change their lives or their habits. There are plenty of books on subjects similar to this one, complete with tables of figures, charts, graphs and diagrams, that argue for or against this or that thesis, initiative or proposal. This, I h o p e you will be happy to find, is n o t one of them. M y goal is to take various i m p o r t a n t aspects of the Soviet post-collapse experience a n d to recast t h e m in an American context, allowing you to imagine what will become of your surroundings, your situation a n d your options, I h o p e to add a lot of detail to what, I would h a z a r d to guess, is currently something of a white spot on your cognitive map. In the same way that

VIII

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COLLAPSE

medieval cartographers sometimes drew sea monsters on yet-to-beexplored sections of the ocean, perhaps yours is populated by dreary Mel G i b s o n clones, or leather-clad extras f r o m the movie "Waterworld," or those charming little Cannibalistic H u m a n o i d Underg r o u n d Dwellers f r o m "C.H.U.D.," Douglas Cheek's 1984 film in which grotesquely d e f o r m e d sewer dwellers terrorize N e w York. Beyond giving your imagination something meaty to chew on, I would like you to take some specific steps, b u t it would be arrogant of me to p r e s u m e to k n o w w h a t they should be. You will have to work that o u t for yourself. H e r e is one starting point: currently, over a third of the working-age population in the United States responds in the negative to the survey question "Will you be able to afford to retire? " Perhaps you are one of t h e m or would consider joining t h e m after giving the question some t h o u g h t . By the way, the question is splendidly euphemistic, making it seem as if being ready for retirement is like being ready for the big weekend. T h e actual question is, "Will you be able to survive once you are too old to work?" If not, then w h a t are you planning to do about it? Slave away until destitute old age catches u p with you? H e r e is a bad solution: get d r u n k a lot. W i t h any luck, you would not live long enough to reach retirement age a n d you would be too d r u n k to care even if you did. I don't wish to set any unreasonable expectations, b u t I d o h o p e that I can help you come u p with a better solution t h a n that! Let's keep in m i n d that in every age a n d circumstance, some people have always managed to find enlightenment, fulfillment and freedom: this is the best that can be h o p e d for. A n d I h o p e t h a t by helping you overcome your fear of the f u t u r e and the old, ingrained habits of t h o u g h t that p r o m o t e reliance on what m u s t surely be a transient and unstable present, I will make it easier for you to start your process of adaptation sooner t h a n necessary, instead of too late, and to go on to live a full a n d happy life, come what may.

THE SOVIET EHHUIPLE

R

decade a n d a half ago the world went f r o m bipolar to unipolar, because one of the poles fell apart: T h e S U is n o more. T h e other

pole — symmetrically n a m e d the U S — has n o t fallen apart, yet; b u t there are o m i n o u s rumblings o n the horizon. T h e collapse of the United States seems a b o u t as unlikely now as the collapse of the Soviet U n i o n seemed in 1985. T h e experience of the first collapse may be instructive to those w h o wish to survive the second. I anticipate that some Americans will react rather badly to having their country compared to the U S S R . I would like to assure you that the Soviet people would have reacted similarly, h a d the U n i t e d States collapsed first. "Of course the U n i t e d States collapsed," they would have s a i d / a n d why wouldn't it have? It was a hopelessly backward system, destined for the scrapheap of history: self-enriching political elites, industry predicated on generating profits for the elites rather t h a n o n serving public needs, b o o m and bust cycles, homelessness, unemployment, a legacy of slavery a n d Indian genocide, yadda-yadda. W h a t could it possibly have in c o m m o n with us, w h o solved all these problems decades ago, t h a n k s to progressive social policy and centrally planned production? S t o p prattling on about t h a t failed former British colony! W e have more i m p o r t a n t things to do than listen to you! W e are busy building C o m m u nism — on Mars!"

1

2

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COLLAPSE

Jingoism, you see, is usually a two-sided coin, neither side containing anything particularly informative. Feelings aside, here are two 20th century superpowers, w h o wanted more or less the same things — things like technological progress, economic growth, full employment a n d world d o m i n a t i o n — b u t disagreed about the m e t h o d s . A n d they obtained similar results — each h a d a good run, intimidated the whole planet a n d kept the other scared. Each eventually went b a n k r u p t . Reasonable people w o u l d never argue t h a t the two poles were exactly symmetrical; along with significant similarities, there are equally significant differences. Both are valuable in predicting how the second half of the clay-footed superpower giant t h a t once bestrode the planet will fare once it too falls apart. Until recently, however, few people would have taken this premise seriously. A f t e r all, w h o could have d o u b t e d t h a t the world economic powerhouse that is the U n i t e d States, having recently w o n the Cold W a r and the G u l f War, would continue, triumphantly, into the bright future of superhighways, supersonic jets and interplanetary colonies? But more recently the n u m b e r of doubters has started to climb steadily. O n e key observation is that the U S economy is d e p e n d e n t on the availability of cheap, plentiful oil a n d natural gas to a greater extent t h a n any other country. O n c e oil and gas become expensive (as they already have) a n d in ever-shorter supply (a matter of one or two years at most), economic growth will stop a n d the economy will collapse. T h e t e r m "collapse" as I try to use it here has been given a precise m e a n i n g by J o h n Michael Greer's theory of catabolic collapse in his 2005 b o o k How Civilizations

Fall: A Theory of Catabolic

Collapse. U n d e r this theory, collapse can be calculated to occur when "production fails to meet maintenance requirements for existing capital." T h e theory adds some m u c h needed rigor to the poorly u n d e r s t o o d recurring p h e n o m e n o n of advanced societies suddenly going'poof." But even w i t h o u t delving too deeply into theory, it is possible to sketch out very simple collapse scenarios that anyone can under-

THE

SOVIET

EXAMPLE

3

stand. Oil powers j u s t about everything in the U S economy, f r o m food p r o d u c t i o n a n d distribution to shipping, construction and plastics manufacturing. W h e n less oil becomes available, less is produced, b u t the a m o u n t of m o n e y in circulation remains the same, causing the prices for the now scarcer p r o d u c t s to be bid up, causing inflation. T h e U S relies on foreign investors to finance its purchases of oil, a n d foreign investors, seeing high inflation and economic turmoil, flee in droves. Result: less money with which to buy oil and, consequently, less oil with which to produce things. Lather, rinse, repeat; stop w h e n you r u n o u t of oil. N o w look a r o u n d : W h e r e did t h a t economy disappear to? A t this point, it appears that 2005 set the all-time record in global (conventional) oil production and although it is still theoretically possible that this record will be exceeded in coming years, pessimistic, and usually under-reported, news of rapidly depleting reserves, delayed projects a n d collapsing production at key supergiant fields far outweighs optimistic, and usually over-hyped, news of new discoveries or new projects coming onstream. There is also a cottage industry of professional optimists, proudly serving the needs of clients whose long-term investment strategy is to continually invest for the short t e r m . O p t i m i s m is contagious, and so they are the ones w h o get m o s t of the press. N o t that the professional realists are in short supply. T h e y are to be f o u n d at the C I A , the Defense D e p a r t m e n t , the General Accounting Office a n d the U S Congress. They all insist t h a t looming energy shortages are a severe threat and that something m u s t be d o n e to address it. (The most realistic of these realists point out that something should have been d o n e about it already, starting one or two decades ago.) M o r e a n d m o r e municipalities across the country are passing Peak Oil resolutions, determined to cut energy cons u m p t i o n before circumstances force their h a n d . Efforts to label the observable, measurable p h e n o m e n o n of peaking oil production as a "theory" neatly parallel the efforts of global w a r m i n g deniers. N o t e , however, t h a t what is k n o w n on the subject now is more or less w h a t was k n o w n a decade or so ago. Thus, the lack of attention

4

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COLLAPSE

paid to the subject over the decades resulted not f r o m ignorance b u t f r o m denial: although the basic theory that is used to model a n d predict resource depletion has been well u n d e r s t o o d since the 1960s, most people prefer to remain in denial. A n d although the dynamics of denial are a bit off the subject of Soviet collapse and what it may teach us about our own, I can't resist saying a few words about it, for it is such an interesting subject. I also h o p e that it will help some of you to go beyond denial, this being a helpful step towards understanding what I a m going to say here. N o w that a lot of the Peak Oil predictions are coming true more or less on schedule, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the steady climb of energy prices a n d the dire warnings f r o m energy experts of every stripe, outright denial is being gradually replaced with subtler forms of denial, which center a r o u n d avoiding any serious, d o w n - t o - e a r t h discussion of the likely actual consequences of Peak Oil and the ways one might cope with t h e m . Instead, there is m u c h discussion of policy: w h a t ' w e " should do. T h e "we" in question is presumably some e m b o d i m e n t of the G r e a t American C a n - D o Spirit: a brilliantly organized consortium of government agencies, leading universities and research centers and major corporations, all working together toward the goal of providing plentiful, clean, environmentally safe energy to fuel a n o t h e r century of economic expansion. Welcome to the sideshow at the end of the universe! O n e often hears that" W e could get this done, if only we wanted to." M o s t often one hears this f r o m non-specialists, sometimes f r o m economists, but hardly ever f r o m scientists or engineers. A few back-of-the-envelope calculations are generally enough to suggest otherwise, b u t here logic runs u p against faith in the G o d d e s s of Technology: that she will provide. O n her altar are assembled various ritualistic objects used to s u m m o n the C a n - D o Spirit: a p h o t o voltaic cell, a fuel cell, a vial of ethanol and a vial of bio-diesel. O f f to the side of the altar is a Pandora's box packed with coal, tar sand, oceanic hydrates and p l u t o n i u m : if the G o d d e s s gets angry, it's curtains for life on E a r t h .

THE

SOVIET

EXAMPLE

5

But let us look beyond mere faith, and focus on something slightly m o r e rational instead. This "we," this highly organized, high-powered problem-solving entity, is quickly r u n n i n g out of energy, and once it does, it will n o t be so high-powered any more. I would like to humbly suggest that any long-term plan it attempts to u n d e r t a k e is d o o m e d , simply because crisis conditions will make long-term planning, along with large, ambitious projects, impossible. Thus, I would suggest against waiting a r o u n d for some miracle device to p u t u n d e r the h o o d of every S U V and in the basement of every M c M a n s i o n , so that all can live happily ever after in this subu r b a n dream, which is looking more and more like a nightmare in any case. T h e next circle of denial revolves a r o u n d what m u s t inevitably come to pass if the G o d d e s s of Technology were to fail us: a series of wars over ever more scarce resources. Paul C . Roberts, w h o is very well informed on the subject of Peak Oil, has this to say: " W h a t desperate states have always d o n e w h e n resources t u r n scarce... [is] fight for them." (Mother Jones, N o v e m b e r 12,2004) Let us n o t argue that this has never happened, b u t did it ever a m o u n t to anything more than a futile gesture of desperation? W a r s take resources; w h e n resources are already scarce, fighting wars over resources becomes a lethal exercise in futility. Those with more resources would be expected to win. I am n o t arguing t h a t wars over resources will not occur. I a m suggesting that they will be futile, and that victory in these conflicts will be barely distinguishable f r o m defeat. I would also like to suggest that these conflicts would be self-limiting: m o d ern warfare uses u p prodigious a m o u n t s of energy, a n d if the conflicts are over oil and gas installations, then they will get blown up, as has h a p p e n e d repeatedly in Iraq. This will result in less energy being available and, consequently, less warfare. Take, for example, the last two U S involvements in Iraq. In each case, as a result of U S actions Iraqi oil production decreased. It now appears that the whole strategy is a failure. S u p p o r t i n g S a d d a m , then fighting S a d d a m , then imposing sanctions on S a d d a m , then finally overthrowing him, has left Iraqi oil fields so badly damaged

REINVENTING

6

COLLAPSE

that the "ultimate recoverable" estimate for Iraqi oil is now d o w n to 10-12 percent of w h a t was once t h o u g h t to be u n d e r g r o u n d (according to the New York

Times),

S o m e people are even suggesting a war over resources with a nuclear endgame. O n this point, I a m optimistic. As R o b e r t M c N a m a r a once thought, nuclear weapons are too difficult to use. A n d although he has d o n e a great deal of work to make t h e m easier to use, a n d h a d considerable success in advocating the introduction of small, tactical, battlefield nukes a n d the like, a n d despite recently renewed interest in nuclear " b u n k e r busters," they still make a bit of a mess a n d are h a r d to work into any sort of a sensible strategy that would reliably lead to an increased supply of energy. N o t i n g t h a t conventional weapons have n o t been effective in this area, it is unclear why nuclear weapons would produce better results. But these are all details; the point I really want to make is t h a t proposing resource wars, even as a worst-case scenario, is still a f o r m of denial. T h e implicit assumption is this: if all else fails, we will go to war; we will win; t h e oil will flow again; a n d we will be back to business as usual in no time. Again, the Iraqi experience should b e enough to sober u p anyone still waiting a r o u n d for the success of a global police action to redirect the lion's share of t h e dwindling world oil supplies t o w a r d the U n i t e d States. O u t s i d e this last circle of denial lies a vast wilderness called the Collapse of W e s t e r n Civilization, r o a m e d by the Four H o r s e m e n of the Apocalypse, or so some people will have you believe. H e r e we find not denial b u t escapism: a hankering for a grand finale, a heroic final chapter. Civilizations d o collapse — this is one of the b e s t - k n o w n facts a b o u t t h e m — b u t as anyone w h o has read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire will tell you, the process can take m a n y centuries. W h a t t e n d s to collapse rather suddenly — a n d with far greater regularity t h a n civilizations — is t h e economy. A n economy does not collapse into a black hole f r o m which n o light can escape. Instead, something else happens: society begins to spontaneously reconfigure itself, establish new relationships a n d evolve new rules,

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in order to find a point of equilibrium at a lower rate of resource expenditure. N o t e t h a t the exercise carries a high h u m a n cost: w i t h o u t an economy, many people suddenly find themselves as helpless as n e w b o r n babes. M a n y of t h e m die sooner t h a n they would o t h e r wise: some w o u l d call this a"die-ofE" T h e r e is a p a r t of the population t h a t is m o s t vulnerable: t h e young, the old a n d the infirm; the foolish a n d the suicidal. T h e r e is also another p a r t of the population t h a t can survive indefinitely o n insects a n d tree bark. M o s t people fall somewhere in between. Economic collapse gives rise to new, smaller a n d poorer economies. T h a t pattern has been repeated many times, so we can reason inductively a b o u t similarities a n d differences between a collapse t h a t has already occurred a n d one t h a t is about to occur. Unlike astrophysicists, w h o can confidently predict w h e t h e r a given star will collapse into a n e u t r o n star or a black hole based on measurements a n d calculations, we have to w o r k with general observations a n d anecdotal evidence. However, I h o p e t h a t my t h o u g h t experim e n t will allow me to guess correctly at the general shape of the new economy, a n d arrive at survival strategies t h a t may be of use to individuals a n d small communities. T H E C O L L A P S E OF T H E S O V I E T U N I O N : AN

OVERVIEW

W h a t h a p p e n s w h e n a m o d e r n economy collapses a n d the complex society it s u p p o r t s disintegrates? A look at a country that has recently u n d e r g o n e such an experience can be m o s t educational. W e are lucky enough to have such an example in the Soviet U n i o n . I spent about six m o n t h s living, traveling a n d doing business in Russia d u r i n g the perestroika period a n d immediately afterward, a n d was fascinated by the transformation I witnessed. T h e specifics are different, of course. T h e Soviet problems seem to have been largely organizational rather t h a n physical in nature, although the fact that the Soviet U n i o n collapsed j u s t three years after reaching peak oil p r o d u c t i o n is hardly a coincidence. T h e

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ultimate cause of t h e Soviet U n i o n s spontaneous collapse remains s h r o u d e d in mystery. W a s it R o n a l d Reagan's Star Wars? O r was it Raisa Gorbachev's American Express card? It is possible to fake a missile defense shield; it is not so easy to fake a H a r r o d s d e p a r t m e n t store. T h e arguments go back a n d forth. O n e contemporary theory w o u l d have it t h a t the Soviet elite scuttled the whole p r o g r a m w h e n they decided t h a t Soviet Socialism was not going to make t h e m rich. (It remains unclear why it should have taken the Soviet elite 70 years to come to this startlingly obvious conclusion.) A slightly m o r e c o m m o n s e n s e explanation is this: d u r i n g the pre-perestroika "stagnation" period, d u e to the chronic underperformance of the economy, coupled with record levels of military expenditure, trade deficit a n d foreign debt, it became increasingly difficult for the average Russian middle-class family of three, w i t h b o t h parents working, to make ends meet. (Now, isn't t h a t beginning to s o u n d familiar?) O f course, the government bureaucrats were n o t too concerned about the plight of the people. But the people f o u n d ways to survive by circumventing government controls in a myriad of ways, preventing the government f r o m getting the results it needed to keep the system going. Therefore, t h e system h a d to be reformed. W h e n this became the consensus view, reformers lined u p to try a n d reform the system. Alas, the system could n o t be ref o r m e d . Instead of adapting, it fell apart. Russia was able to bounce back economically because it remains fairly rich in oil a n d very rich in natural gas, a n d will p r o b ably continue in relative prosperity for at least a few m o r e decades. In N o r t h America, o n the other h a n d , oil p r o d u c t i o n peaked in t h e early 1970s and has been in decline ever since, while natural gas p r o d u c t i o n is n o w set to fall off a p r o d u c t i o n cliff. Yet energy d e m a n d continues to rise far above w h a t the continent can supply, making such a spontaneous recovery unlikely. W h e n I say t h a t Russia bounced back, I a m n o t trying to understate the h u m a n cost of the Soviet collapse or the lopsidedness a n d the economic disparities of the reborn Russian economy. But I a m suggesting that where Russia b o u n c e d back because it was n o t fully spent, the

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U n i t e d States will be m o r e fully spent a n d less capable of bouncing back. But such "big picture" differences are n o t so interesting. It is the micro-scale similarities t h a t offer interesting practical lessons on h o w small groups of individuals can successfully cope with economic a n d social collapse. A n d t h a t is where the post-Soviet experience offers a m u l t i t u d e of useful lessons. M Y R E T U R N TO R U S S I A

I first flew back to Leningrad, which was soon to be rechristened St. Petersburg, in t h e s u m m e r of 1989, a b o u t a year after Gorbachev freed the last batch of political prisoners, my uncle a m o n g them, w h o h a d been locked u p by General Secretary A n d r o p o v s final, senile a t t e m p t at clenching an iron fist. For the first time it became possible for Soviet escapees to go back a n d visit. M o r e t h a n a decade h a d passed since I left, b u t the place was m u c h as I r e m e m bered it: bustling streets full of Volgas a n d Ladas, C o m m u n i s t slogans on the roofs of towering buildings lit u p in neon, long lines in shops. A b o u t the only thing new was a flurry of activity a r o u n d a newly organized Cooperative movement. A newly hatched entrepreneurial class was busy complaining t h a t their "cooperatives" were only allowed to sell to the government, at government prices, while they contrived ingenuous schemes to skim something off the top through barter arrangements. M o s t were going b a n k r u p t . It did not t u r n o u t to b e a successful business m o d e l for t h e m or for t h e government, which was, as it t u r n e d out, also on its last legs. I went back a year later a n d f o u n d a place I did n o t quite recognize. First of all, it smelled different: the s m o g was gone. T h e factories h a d largely shut down, there was very little traffic a n d the fresh air smelled w o n d e r f u l ! T h e stores were largely empty (in the sense of being quite u n c o n t a m i n a t e d by consumer goods) a n d often closed. T h e r e were very few gas stations o p e n and the ones that were h a d lines t h a t stretched for m a n y blocks. T h e r e was a ten-liter limit on gasoline purchases.

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Since there was n o t h i n g better for us to do, my friends a n d I decided to take a road trip to visit the medieval Russian cities of Pskov and N o v g o r o d , taking in the surrounding countryside along the way. For this, we h a d to obtain fuel. It was h a r d to come by. It was available on the black market, b u t no one felt particularly inclined to let go of something so valuable in exchange for something so useless as money. Soviet m o n e y ceased to have value, since there was so little t h a t could be b o u g h t with it, a n d people still felt skittish a r o u n d foreign currency. Luckily, there was a limited supply of another sort of currency available to us. It was close to the e n d of Gorbachev's ill-fated antialcoholism campaign, d u r i n g which vodka was rationed. T h e r e was a death in my family, for which we received a funeral's w o r t h of vodka coupons, which we of course redeemed right away. W h a t was left of the vodka was placed in the t r u n k of the trusty old Lada, and off we went. Each half-liter bottle of vodka was exchanged for ten liters of gasoline, giving vodka far greater effective energy density t h a n rocket fuel. W h e n the time came for the trip back, we discovered t h a t we definitely did n o t have enough gas. W o r s e yet, we were out of vodka! I was doing my usual m e a n d e r t h r o u g h closed gas stations a n d empty industrial back lots, questing after gasoline, idling in t h i r d gear a n d trying n o t to touch either the gas pedal or the brakes to conserve t h e precious vapors. Finally, I spotted my quarry: a plucky urchin with a jerrycan. I was sent in to negotiate. K n o w i n g h o w little we h a d to offer, I worked h a r d to establish u n d e r s t a n d ing, sympathy a n d trust. This t o o k some time. A f t e r a while, it did appear t h a t we would get some gas, b u t not w i t h o u t parting with something valuable. T h e plucky urchin wanted a replacement for his unfashionable sweatpants and his imagination inevitably seized u p o n the jeans I was wearing. W e were considering a trade, b u t t h e n even h e conceded t h a t I would look ridiculous in his sweatpants. T h e deal remained tentative all the while the gasoline was being dispensed, b u t in t h e end h e walked away, disappointed, with j u s t a wad of rubles. T o celebrate, we stopped for lunch in a

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forest. Back o n the highway, as we approached the hillside s t u d d e d with giant concrete letters spelling "Leningrad Region," our urchin friend was perched on top of the letter "L," his jerrycan by his side. H a d I b r o u g h t a spare pair of jeans, we could have obtained a reserve; w i t h o u t it, we crawled back into t o w n timidly, with hardly a slosh to be heard f r o m the gas tank, a n d his wardrobe remained unfashionable. T h e r e is a lesson to be learned here: when faced with a collapsing economy, one should stop thinking of wealth in t e r m s of money. Access to actual physical resources a n d assets, as well as intangibles such as connections and relationships, quickly becomes m u c h more valuable t h a n mere cash.

T w o years later, I was back again, this time in the dead of winter. I was traveling on business t h r o u g h Minsk, St. Petersburg a n d Moscow. M y mission was to see w h e t h e r any of t h e former Soviet defense industry could b e converted to civilian use. I t o u r e d formerly top secret factories a n d institutes. I managed to get a sample batch of p r o d u c t (little circuit boards) shipped to the U S , b u t only after t h e government delayed t h e s h i p m e n t a n d slapped o n an exp o r t d u t y t h a t neatly equaled our margin on the entire p r o d u c t i o n run. So, the business p a r t of the trip was a total fiasco a n d a complete waste of time, j u s t as one w o u l d expect. In other ways, it was quite educational. M i n s k seemed like a city rudely awakened f r o m hibernation. D u r i n g t h e short daylight hours, t h e streets were full of people, w h o j u s t stood a r o u n d as if w o n d e r i n g what to d o next. T h e same feeling pervaded the executive offices, where people I used to think of as the representatives of the "evil empire" sat a r o u n d u n d e r dusty portraits of Lenin b e m o a n i n g their fate. N o one h a d any answers. T h e only beam of sunshine came f r o m a smarmy N e w York lawyer w h o h u n g a r o u n d the place trying to organize a state lottery. H e was almost the only m a n with a plan. T h e director of a research

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institute which was formerly charged with explosion-welding parts for nuclear fusion reactor vessels also h a d a plan: h e wanted to build s u m m e r cottages. T h e director of another research institute, one formerly charged with developing t h e silent magneto-hydrodynamic drive for nuclear submarines, h a d taken to h u n t i n g ducks in t h e city park. H e proudly reported t h e m to b e free of radionuclides, b u t they tasted quite vile. T h e r e were also a lot of G e r m a n businessmen, ostensibly in t o w n on business, b u t really j u s t to drink on the cheap a n d to sample the local w o m e n , a wide assortment of w h o m was on display at each of the t w o big tourist hotels. I w r a p p e d u p my business early a n d caught a night train to St. Petersburg. O n the train, a comfortable old sleeper car, I shared a c o m p a r t m e n t with a young, newly retired army doctor, w h o explained to m e a truly medieval technique of curing recruits of the c o m m o n cold using a vat of h o t water a n d some turpentine, showed m e his fat roll of h u n d r e d - d o l l a r bills, a n d told m e all a b o u t the local d i a m o n d trade. H e was also dabbling in real estate: apartments in St. Petersburg were t h e n selling for a r o u n d one twenty-fifth of w h a t they are w o r t h now. W e split a bottle of cognac a n d snoozed off. It was a pleasant trip. St. Petersburg was a shock. T h e r e was a sense of despair that h u n g in the winter air. T h e r e were old w o m e n standing a r o u n d in spontaneous o p e n air flea markets trying to sell toys t h a t probably belonged to their grandchildren to buy something to eat. Middleclass people could be seen digging a r o u n d in the trash. Everyone's savings h a d been wiped o u t by hyperinflation. I arrived with a large stack of one-dollar bills. Everything was one dollar, or a t h o u s a n d rubles, which was a b o u t five times t h e average m o n t h l y salary. I h a n d e d o u t lots of these silly t h o u s a n d - r u b l e notes: "Here, I j u s t w a n t to make sure you have enough." People would recoil in shock: "That's a lot of money!""No, it isn't. Be sure to spend it right away." However, all the lights were on, there was heat in m a n y of t h e h o m e s a n d the trains ran o n time. M y business itinerary involved a trip to the countryside to t o u r a n d have meetings at a scientific facility. T h e p h o n e lines to the place

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were d o w n , a n d so I decided to j u s t j u m p o n a train a n d go there. T h e only train left at 7 A.M. I showed u p a r o u n d 6, thinking I could find breakfast at the station. T h e station was dark a n d locked. Across t h e street, there was a store selling coffee, with a line that w r a p p e d a r o u n d the block. T h e r e was also an old w o m a n in f r o n t of the store,' selling b u n s f r o m a tray. I offered her a t h o u s a n d - r u b l e note. "Don't t h r o w your m o n e y around!" she said. I offered to buy her entire tray. " W h a t are the other people going to eat?" she asked. I went a n d stood in line for the cashier, presented my t h o u s a n d - r u b l e note, got a pile of useless change a n d a receipt, presented the receipt at the counter, collected a glass of w a r m b r o w n liquid, d r a n k it, returned the glass, paid the old w o m a n , got my sweet bun, a n d t h a n k e d her very m u c h . It was a lesson in civility. A f t e r that, there was n o t h i n g to d o except stand o n the dark platform, look at the one illuminated object — the clock, a n d wait for the train. O n c e on the train, it eventually d a w n e d on m e t h a t I didn't k n o w where I should be getting off or where I should be going after that, so I strolled t h r o u g h the train, hoping to spot a scientist, I suppose. I f o u n d one fellow reading an English textbook and, considering it to be close enough, asked h i m w h e t h e r he knew of the place I was visiting. N o t only did h e k n o w it, b u t h e worked there a n d knew the people I was planning to visit. W e arrived there together, at w h a t was clearly the most i m p o r t a n t building on the entire c o m p o u n d — the cafeteria — j u s t as the lunch h o u r ended. Everyone felt sorry t h a t I h a d missed lunch, b u t nothing could be d o n e about it: lunchtime was officially over. This was quite an illustrious institution, with many world-renowned scientists w h o h a d contributed to international scientific collaborations, b u t it could n o longer pay salaries, with the cafeteria remaining as one of the few remaining perks.

Three years later I was back again, and the economy h a d clearly started to recover, at least to t h e extent t h a t goods were available

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to those w h o h a d money, b u t enterprises were continuing to shut d o w n a n d most people were still clearly suffering. 1Tbere were new, private stores, which h a d tight security, a n d which sold i m p o r t e d goods for foreign currency. Very few people could afford to shop at these stores. T h e r e were also open air markets in m a n y city squares, at which m o s t of the shopping was done. M a n y kinds of goods were dispensed f r o m locked metal booths, quite a few of which belonged to the C h e c h e n mafia: one shoved a large pile of paper m o n e y t h r o u g h a hole a n d was h a n d e d back the item. It was all a bit sketchy, b u t here, at least, one could pay with rubles. T h e r e were sporadic difficulties with the m o n e y supply. I recall standing a r o u n d waiting for banks to open in order to cash my traveler s checks. T h e banks were closed because they were fresh out of money; they were all waiting for cash to be delivered. O n c e in a while, a b a n k manager would come o u t and m a k e an announcem e n t : the m o n e y is on its way, n o need to worry. T h e r e was a great divide between those w h o were unemployed, underemployed or working in the old economy, and the new merchant class. For those working for the old state-owned enterprises — schools, hospitals, the railways, the telephone exchanges and what remained of the rest of the Soviet economy — it was lean times. Salaries were paid sporadically or n o t at all. Even w h e n people got their money, it was barely enough to subsist on. But t h e worst of it was clearly over. A new economic reality h a d taken hold. A large segment of t h e population saw its s t a n d a r d of living reduced, sometimes permanently. It took the economy ten years to get back to its pre-collapse level, and the recovery was u n even, Alongside the nouveau riche, there were m a n y whose fortunes would never recover. T h o s e w h o could n o t become p a r t of t h e new economy, especially t h e pensioners, b u t also many others w h o h a d benefited f r o m the n o w d e f u n c t socialist state, could barely eke out a living. This t h u m b n a i l sketch of my experiences in Russia is intended to convey a general sense of w h a t I h a d witnessed. But it is the details of what I have observed t h a t I h o p e will be of value to those

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w h o see an economic collapse looming ahead a n d want to plan in order to survive it. MY

PREMISE

You may have guessed by now t h a t an economic collapse is amazing to observe, a n d very interesting if described accurately and in detail. A general description tends to fall short of the mark, b u t let me try. A n economic arrangement can continue for quite some time after it becomes untenable, t h r o u g h sheer inertia. But at some point a tide of broken promises and invalidated assumptions sweeps it all o u t to sea. O n e such untenable arrangement — t h e one on which continued U S prosperity currently rests — assumes t h a t it is possible to perpetually b o r r o w m o r e a n d m o r e m o n e y f r o m abroad t o pay for m o r e a n d more energy imports, while the price of these i m p o r t s continues to double every few years. Free m o n e y with which to buy energy equals free energy, a n d free energy does n o t occur in nature. This m u s t therefore be a transient condition. W h e n the flow of energy snaps back toward equilibrium, m u c h of the U S economy will quite literally r u n o u t of fuel, a n d will be forced to s h u t d o w n . This is b u t one such untenable arrangement; there are many others as well. I therefore take it as my premise t h a t at some p o i n t during the coming years, d u e t o an array of factors, with energy scarcity foremost a m o n g them, the economic system of t h e U n i t e d States will teeter and fall, to be replaced by something t h a t most people can scarcely guess at, and t h a t even those w h o see it coming prefer not to t h i n k about. This stunning failure of the collective imagination is the specific problem this b o o k seeks to address. T h e risk is there for all to see, and it is huge. Even if you happen to believe that the probability of economic collapse is low, it is t h e p r o d u c t of the two — the probability of it h a p p e n i n g times the value of everything t h a t is at risk — against which you should seek to insure yourself. In a nation t h a t insures itself against loss of life a n d limb, car accidents, medical emergencies, fire, flood, accidents

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at sea a n d pratfalls resulting in litigation, such w a n t o n disregard is most striking. Perhaps it is difficult for a people t h a t a t t e m p t to quantify every k i n d of risk in t e r m s of its m o n e t a r y value to t h i n k about a type of risk t h a t can only be compensated for t h r o u g h accepting a different living arrangement. Perhaps it is difficult for a nation t h a t has n o t experienced war o n its h o m e soil in m a n y generations to imagine a f u t u r e t h a t does n o t generally resemble the past. Americans still appear to see theirs as t h e land of free ice cream a n d perpetual sunshine — m u c h evidence to t h e contrary — in a way t h a t the Russians or the G e r m a n s or t h e Chinese decidedly d o not. O r perhaps the force of the social convention t h a t a m o d i c u m of o p t i m i s m be required for o n e s admission into polite company throws u p an invisible perceptual barrier. Perhaps m o s t importantly, Americas national mythology makes it a n a t h e m a to t h i n k of collective failure. All failure is to b e regarded as individual failure — something that h a p p e n s to somebody else, or to you, b u t only if you h a p p e n to be unlucky or d o n o t try h a r d enough. Fair enough: economic collapse will in fact h a p p e n for each of you individually, in t u r n . For some, like the retired schoolteacher in S a n t a Barbara w h o lives in a car w i t h her cats, it has h a p p e n e d already. Certain others will have to wait their t u r n , until one day they find t h a t t h e mansion is cold a n d dark, t h e Rolls Royce is out of gas a n d t h e bank is o u t of money, so there is n o t h i n g left to d o except mix really stiff drinks a n d sit a r o u n d the fireplace. W h a t e v e r t h e causes of this failure of collective imagination h a p p e n to be, I believe I have f o u n d a way to break d o w n this wall. M y m e t h o d is one of comparative analysis, taking the actual prea n d post-collapse conditions in the Soviet U n i o n a n d comparing t h e m to the hypothetical pre- a n d post-collapse conditions in the U n i t e d States. I will focus on categories t h a t are key for survival: food, shelter, transportation, education, finances, security a n d a few others. In general, w h e t h e r post-collapse conditions for each of these categories are dire or relatively benign d e p e n d s in great measure o n h o w closely coupled the pre-collapse arrangement is to the s m o o t h

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functioning of the rest of the economic system. Looking at each of these factors in t u r n will help focus the imagination on the salient details of each thing, rather t h a n the vague big picture. T h e n , of each i m p o r t a n t thing in your life, you will be prepared to answer two very i m p o r t a n t questions:"Is it collapse-proof?" and, if it is not, " W h a t can I d o to make it collapse-proof?" If, for a given thing, t h e answers t u r n o u t t o b e " N o " a n d "Nothing," t h e n t h e very i m p o r t a n t follow-up question should be: " H o w can I live w i t h o u t it?" H a v i n g obtained these answers, it will b e u p to you w h e t h e r to act o n t h e m and how quickly. It takes a brave a n d i n d e p e n d e n t n a t u r e to follow your own orders, rather t h a n try to fulfill the expectations of the people a r o u n d you. A n d it will take imagination and actual work, as well as a good deal of luck, to adequately collapseproof yourself a n d your family. But even if the steps you take are largely symbolic, their value as mental preparation will n o t be. A n economic collapse is the worst possible time to suffer a nervous breakdown, yet so often this is exactly w h a t h a p p e n s . Taking an unsentimental look at w h a t is coming u p can help p u t you at the top of your game at a time w h e n everyone a r o u n d you is reeling in shock a n d flailing a b o u t randomly. This will make you a very useful person, b o t h to yourself a n d to others, in making t h e best of a bad situation. This is also something that you a n d I should realistically expect to b e able to achieve.

e H A p T E R

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SUPERPOUIER SimiLflHITIES

O

fficial p r o p a g a n d a has always tried to portray superpower conflict as an obvious a n d inevitable consequence of the irreconcilable

differences between the two sides. One's own side was represented as the manifestation of all t h a t is good and j u s t in the world and the other as all that is evil a n d repressive. There was usually a catchy label to go with t h e description t h a t tested well w i t h t h e target audience, such as the "Imperialist Aggressor" or the"Evil Empire." W h e n you switched sides, the orientation of the p r o p a g a n d a you h a d j u s t heard flipped automatically: it was like stepping t h r o u g h a mirror. It is axiomatic t h a t in order for a contest to make an engaging spectacle, the contestants have to be evenly matched. A m o c k pugilistic contest between a schoolgirl a n d her p e t kangaroo may provide a m u s e m e n t , b u t it cannot be regarded as p r o p e r sport. W h a t we generally look for is a fair fight, or at least the semblance of one, a n d this requires that the t w o fighters weigh about the same, have similar training a n d be able to go o n expertly p u n c h i n g a n d blocking for several rounds. T h e y would probably t u r n o u t to have other things in c o m m o n as well: a diet rich in red meat or a tendency to try solving many different kinds of problems by throwing punches. A

given audience may decide to cheer one a n d b o o the other, making the contest m o r e interesting to watch, b u t t h a t is irrelevant to the outcome.

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If a contest goes on for an extended, period of time — in the case of the superpower contest, over three decades — it would appear safe to conclude t h a t the contestants h a d been evenly matched. But we will probably never k n o w for certain why the Soviet fighter chose to take a dive in the f o u r t h r o u n d , because that certainly did n o t look like a p r o p e r k n o c k - o u t . It is also h a r d to u n d e r s t a n d why t h e American fighter concluded his little victory jig by kneeing himself in the teeth, or why he is n o w d r a p e d unconscious over the ropes a n d getting p u m m e l e d by some j u n i o r featherweights f r o m the stands. A n d why is the Soviet fighter n o w seated back in his corner, laughing? It is never easy to give u p the title of W o r l d Superpower C h a m p i o n , especially w h e n it is n o t being challenged, b u t this is ridiculous! W h a t sort of sporting event is this anyway? Bring back the schoolgirl a n d the kangaroo!

T u r n i n g slightly m o r e serious, some w o u l d find a direct comparison between the U n i t e d States a n d the Soviet U n i o n incongruous, if n o t downright insulting. A f t e r all, w h a t g r o u n d s are there to compare a failed C o m m u n i s t empire to t h e u n d i s p u t e d world leader? O t h e r s might find it preposterous t h a t t h e loser might have advice for the winner in w h a t they might see as an ideological conflict. Since the differences between the two appear glaring to most, let m e j u s t indicate some similarities, which I h o p e you will find are no less obvious. T h e Soviet U n i o n a n d the U n i t e d States are each either the winner or the r u n n e r - u p in the following categories: the space race, the arms race, the jails race, the hated evil empire race, the squandering of natural resources race and the b a n k r u p t c y race. In some of these categories, the U n i t e d States is, shall we say, a late bloomer, setting new records after its rival was forced to forfeit. Both believed, with giddy zeal, in science, technology a n d progress, right u p until the C h e r n o b y l disaster occurred. A f t e r that, there was only one true believer left.

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They are the two p o s t - W o r l d W a r II industrial empires t h a t att e m p t e d to impose their ideologies on the rest of the world: democracy and capitalism versus socialism a n d central planning. B o t h h a d some successes: while the U n i t e d States reveled in growth a n d prosperity, t h e Soviet U n i o n achieved universal literacy, universal health care, far less social inequality a n d a guaranteed — albeit lower — standard of living for all citizens. T h e state-controlled media took pains to make sure t h a t most people didn't realize j u s t h o w m u c h lower it was: "Those happy Russians don't k n o w h o w badly they live," S i m o n e Signoret said after a visit. Both empires m a d e a big mess of quite a few other countries, each one financing, funneling a r m s and directly taking p a r t in bloody conflicts a r o u n d the world in order to impose its ideology and t h w a r t the other. Both m a d e quite a big mess of their o w n country, setting world records for the percentage of population held in jails ( S o u t h Africa was a contender at one point). In this last category, the U S is n o w a runaway success, supporting a burgeoning, partially privatized prison-industrial complex. W h i l e the U n i t e d States used to have far m o r e goodwill a r o u n d the world t h a n the Soviet Union, the'evil empire"gap has narrowed since the Soviet U n i o n disappeared f r o m the scene. Now, in many countries a r o u n d the world, including W e s t e r n countries like Sweden, t h e U n i t e d States ranks as a bigger threat to peace t h a n Iran or N o r t h Korea. In the hated-empire race, the U n i t e d States is now beginning to look like t h e c h a m p i o n . These almost universal negative feelings are likely to prove m o r e durable t h a n t h e superpower's good fortune: n o b o d y likes a loser, especially if the loser is a failed superpower. N o b o d y h a d any pity for the poor defunct Soviet Union; a n d nobody will have any pity for p o o r d e f u n c t America either. T h e b a n k r u p t c y race is particularly interesting. Prior to its collapse, t h e Soviet U n i o n was taking on foreign debt at a rate t h a t could n o t be sustained. T h e combination of low world oil prices a n d a peak in Soviet oil p r o d u c t i o n sealed its fate. Later, the Russian Federation, which inherited the Soviet foreign debt, was forced to default o n its obligations, precipitating an international

financial

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crisis. Russia's finances later improved, primarily d u e to rising oil prices along with rising oil exports, a n d it is n o w well o n its way to becoming an energy superpower. T h e U n i t e d States is now facing a current account deficit t h a t c a n n o t b e sustained, a falling currency a n d an energy crisis, all at once. It is now t h e world s largest debtor nation, a n d most people d o n o t see h o w it can avoid defaulting o n its debt. According to a lot of analysts, it is technically b a n k r u p t a n d is being p r o p p e d u p by foreign reserve banks, which hold a lot of dollar-denominated assets, and, for the time being, want to protect the value of their reserves. T h i s game can only go o n for so long. T h u s , while the Soviet U n i o n deserves honorable m e n t i o n for going b a n k r u p t first, the gold in this category ( p u n intended) will u n d o u b t e d l y go to the U n i t e d States, for the largest default ever. T h e r e are many other similarities as well. For instance, b o t h countries have been experiencing chronic depopulation of farming districts. In Russia, family farms were decimated d u r i n g collectivization, along with agricultural o u t p u t ; in the U S , a variety of other forces p r o d u c e d a similar result w i t h regard to rural population, b u t w i t h o u t any loss of p r o d u c t i o n . Both countries replaced family f a r m s with unsustainable, ecologically disastrous industrial agribusiness, addicted to fossil fuels. T h e American ones work better, as long as energy is cheap and, after that, probably won't w o r k at all. All the similarities are too n u m e r o u s to mention. I h o p e t h a t w h a t I outlined above is enough to signal a key fact: t h a t these are, or were, the antipodes of the same industrial, technological civilization. But w h a t is interesting for o u r p u r p o s e s is to identify a n d describe the key elements t h a t m a d e these superpower contestants so evenly m a t c h e d t h a t their sparring w e n t on for decades. N o n e of these key elements can b e sustained forever. T h e hypothesis I wish to test is that the lack of these same key elements, readily identifiable in the Soviet collapse, likewise spells t h e demise of America, definitely as a superpower, probably as a m a j o r part of t h e world economy, and possibly as a recognizable entity o n the political map.

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T H E M Y T H OF I N C L U S I V E N E S S

Like t h a t of our metaphorical heavyweight champion, a superpower's diet m u s t contain plenty of red meat — in this case, h u m a n flesh. A superpower m u s t continually ingest plenty of highly skilled and motivated personnel — managers, scientists, engineers, military officers — w h o must be willing to e n d u r e hardship, give u p their best years, ruin their health, perhaps even give their lives, slaving away designing and building things, fighting a n d doing all the dirty work. Motivating t h e needed quantities of people with money is o u t of the question, because t h a t would n o t leave enough for the ruling elites to siphon off. T h e u p p e r classes t e n d to already be highly motivated by b o t h m o n e y a n d status, b u t they also t e n d to be allergic to dirty work, a n d they can never b e n u m e r o u s enough to satisfy a superpower's appetite for flesh. T h e only thing t h a t can possibly provide the necessary motivating force is an idea: a comm u n a l myth powerful enough to cause people to c o m m i t their insignificant yet essential selves to the righteousness a n d glory of the great whole. A superpower's vitality is critically d e p e n d e n t o n the sustaining power of this m y t h . Shortly after it fails, so does the superpower. Both the Soviet and t h e American models featured an inclusiveness m y t h as their centerpiece. In the Soviet case, it was the myth of the classless society. T h e great revolutionary upheaval was said to have erased class a n d ethnic distinctions, creating an egalitarian society t h a t provided for everybody's basic needs, curbed excesses of wealth and allowed people f r o m h u m b l e origins to become educated a n d rise to positions of respect and authority. This m y t h proved to b e so p o w e r f u l t h a t it propelled a poor, industrializing b u t still mainly agrarian nation on a trajectory to becoming a leading military and industrial power. A s the decades wore on, the m y t h gradually lost most of its luster. T h e satisfaction of basic needs gave rise to an insatiable appetite for i m p o r t e d consumer goods, which were either inaccessible or in short supply, except to the elite, a n d this, in turn, ruined the appearance of egalitarianism. "They p r e t e n d to pay us, a n d we pretend to work," went the saying,

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a n d morale p l u m m e t e d . This led to a situation where n o new comm o n effort could be organized. A s everyone started thinking for themselves, a slow rot set in, a n d the superpower gradually became enfeebled. America's belated and half-hearted answer to t h e classless society of t h e Soviets is t h e m i d d l e class society. A f t e r wallowing t h r o u g h the G r e a t Depression a n d grasping at straws d u r i n g the N e w Deal, the U n i t e d States reaped a gigantic windfall following W o r l d W a r II, as the only large industrial player left standing. M u c h of the rest of the w o r l d s industrial infrastructure h a d been b o m b e d to rubble, giving the U n i t e d States an opening. T h e y used it to p u t every American within striking distance of achieving a cheap simulacrum of landed gentry, symbolized by a detached house surr o u n d e d by a patch of land big enough to accommodate private parking, a patch of grass a n d some shrubbery, a n d adorned, as an absolute necessity, by one's o w n private automobile. American society is classless, at least in theory, since no one wants to a d m i t to being either u p p e r or lower class. T h e r e is, supposedly, one large a n d h o m o g e n e o u s middle class; in fact, though, there is a small u p p e r p o r t i o n and a large a n d rapidly expanding lower portion. T h e w o n d e r f u l thing a b o u t the American middle class concept is its malleability, because it is almost entirely symbolic. You could be middle class, o w n an ancestral mansion in an old brick a n d fieldstone suburb, drive a Mercedes a n d send your children to an Ivy League school. O r you could b e middle class, live in a dolled-up trailer home, drive a s o u p e d - u p pickup truck, a n d send your children t o a c o m m u n i t y college t h a t teaches t h e m h o w to milk hogs. T h e least c o m m o n d e n o m i n a t o r is t h a t you have to drive a m o t o r vehicle, otherwise you can n o longer p e r f o r m this charade. T h i s is why there is so m u c h denial a b o u t it being necessary to give u p the car a n d all t h e current talk a b o u t resorting to bio-fuels to continue feeding the car addiction. Biofiiels a m o u n t to b u r n i n g one's food a n d destroying what is left of the topsoil in order to continue driving. This is also why so many Americans would forgo a healthy diet, a reasonable work schedule, education for their children,

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needed medical t r e a t m e n t a n d even give u p their house, rather t h a n give u p their car. N o t having a car makes one, within the American s u b u r b a n landscape, a non-person. T h e universal right to drive a car is the linchpin of the American c o m m u n a l m y t h . O n c e a significant p o r t i o n of t h e population finds t h a t cars have become inaccessible to t h e m , t h e effect o n the national psyche may be so p r o f o u n d as to make the country ungovernable. Solving the underlying transportation problem, t h r o u g h the reintroduction of public transportation or other means, is beside the point: the image of the automobile is indelibly imprinted on t h e national psyche a n d it will n o t be easily dislodged. For many, their car is a public extension of their persona, a status symbol and even a symbol of sexual potency, a n d this makes the automobile, along with the gun, a sacred national fetish. Like the gun, the car is also a p o t e n t weapon t h a t can b e used for m u r d e r or for suicide. It is propelling the American c o m m u n a l myth toward a flaming crash with the reality of p e r m a n e n t fuel shortage, compared to which the gradual fading away of the Soviet c o m m u n a l myth will have been gentle a n d benign. TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS

Both the U n i t e d States and the Soviet U n i o n aspired to achieving better living t h r o u g h science, staking their very existence on the ability to deliver technological fixes to all m a n n e r of existing p r o b lems, as well as to all the unforeseen new problems t h a t were created in the course of applying technological fixes to existing problems. T h e inability to either prevent or successfully mitigate catastrophes, which, in a technology-based civilization, shows u p as the inability to deal with a set of technical challenges, eventually destroys the p o p u l a t i o n s faith in t h e system. In a society where every k i n d of prestige and status emanates f r o m the exercise of technical prowess, such failure destroys trust a n d u n d e r m i n e s respect for every k i n d of authority. Each of the two superpowers strove to position itself at the forefront of science and technology. It is no surprise, therefore,

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t h a t science and technology were arenas of serious competition and relentless copying between the superpowers. Americans led in p r o d u c t design; many Soviet research institutes were busy secretly reverse-engineering American-designed products. T h e Soviets held an advantage in basic science; n u m e r o u s American P h D candidates laboriously deciphered the Cyrillic of obscure Soviet scientific articles, t h e n scurried back to the lab to reproduce their results. Both superpowers p r o d u c e d impressive results in areas such as energy, power generation, weaponry, shipbuilding a n d aerospace. Sovietbuilt capital e q u i p m e n t has proven to be extremely hard-wearing and relatively easy to maintain, a n d Soviet-built m o t o r vehicles, aircraft a n d plenty of other machinery are still in use t h r o u g h o u t Eastern Europe, Africa a n d Asia. In an ironic twist, Soviet-built planes have been pressed into service to resupply American troops in Iraq a n d Afghanistan because they are uniquely able to handle r u t t e d and cratered runways. O n e area of superpower technology competition t h a t was particularly b o u n d u p with national prestige was the space race. T h e t w o early Russian wins — the first u n m a n n e d success of the Sputnik, a n d Yuri Gagarins first m a n n e d orbital flight — struck fear into the hearts of Americans, causing t h e m to get slightly more serious a b o u t learning m a t h a n d Russian a n d in d u e course to counter with the Apollo missions to the m o o n a n d other impressive exploits. T h e Soviet m a n n e d space p r o g r a m is alive and well u n d e r Russian m a n agement a n d now offers first-ever space charters. (As I write this, a f o r m e r Microsoft executive is on his way to the International Space Station, accompanied by two Russian cosmonauts, having paid $20 million for the privilege. O n c e there, h e will try making some of Dr. M a r t h a Stewart's recipes in zero-gravity — i m p o r t a n t scientific work, to be sure!) Americans f r o m t h e official space p r o g r a m have been hitching rides o n the Soyuz as well, while their remaining spaceships mostly sit in t h e shop, plagued by loose heat tiles a n d cracks in the f o a m insulation. To be fair, the Americans have been quite successful with their u n m a n n e d missions to Mars, fly-by missions to the outer planets a n d other robotic spacecraft.

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The Soviet Union failed to remain technologically competitive in three important technological categories: food production, consumer goods and information technology. N o n e of these factors was lethal on its own, b u t the combination was quite damaging, to the prestige as well as the pocketbook. It is uncanny that the United States now appears poised to fail in these same categories as well — which is why I chose to include t h e m here. Food

Production

There is no reason why food production should be relegated to the area of technology; after all, people grew and gathered food with little or no technology for many thousands of years. But the introduction of collectivized, mechanized agriculture broke the back of pre-revolutionary Russian agrarian society, and no a m o u n t of technical supervision f r o m Moscow was able to restore the prolific productivity of the backward old village. Before the revolution Russia was a well-fed country, known for its blini-eating contests, that supplied wheat to Western Europe. In Soviet times, it had to imp o r t wheat from the United States on credit, and many people were forced to supplement what was available in the state-run shops with what they could buy at the farmers' markets, gather in the woods and produce f r o m their own small kitchen garden plots. Corporate, mechanized agriculture in the United States is often viewed as a success story, able to supply its people with a highfat, high-protein diet, which also contains plenty of salt and sugar, along with many mystery chemicals. Never mind that it spans the entire spectrum of flavors — f r o m sawdust all the way to cardboard — cleverly disguised by the fat, salt, sugar and mystery chemicals. Never mind that this questionable food is often ingested in a hurry, f r o m a piece of paper or plastic. Never mind that it makes the people fat, crazy and sick. The portions are nothing if not generous, even for the poorest people, many of w h o m sport cathedral-like domes and buttresses of fat. The U S also produces many agricultural commodities for export. However, this agricultural system depends on the availability of

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fossil fuel-based energy, mainly in the form of diesel for agricultural machinery and transportation and natural gas for fertilizer and other chemical manufacturing. In effect, the industrialized agricultural system transforms fossil fuels into food calories with the help of soil (which it gradually destroys in the process) and sunlight. T h e ratio of fossil fuel energy to derived food energy has been calculated to be about ten calories f r o m fossil fuels for each calorie of consumed food. The combination of depleted domestic oil and gas resources and d e m a n d outstripping foreign supplies, coupled with increasing d e m a n d for biofuels and the predicted onset of dust-bowl conditions due to global warming, represents a less than rosy scenario for American food security in the coming years. Consumer

Goods

T h e Soviets' inability to compete in the area of mass-produced consumer goods stemmed mainly f r o m an administrative preference for financing capital goods expenditures while ignoring light industry. Also, consumer goods production requires a flexible economic model that is difficult to accommodate within a centrally planned economy. C o n s u m e r goods were regarded not as an important segment of the Soviet economic system b u t as a cost to the government, competing with other, more essential social services, such as housing, education and health care. As it turned out, the trickle of imported consumer items eventually turned into a flood; coupled with falling oil export revenues, this exacerbated the Soviet Union's financial shortfalls. Since the talent to design fashionable, attractive clothing was certainly always present, this was strictly a failure — one of many — on the part of the Soviet leadership. W h a t they entirely missed was the ability of consumer goods, especially clothing, to undermine morale by allowing privileged young people to differentiate themselves in appearance f r o m the rest of the population, and to do so in a way that quietly made a mockery of the official ideology, without any sign of overt dissent. It is well known that putting on a uniform has a profound effect on a person's behavior. Attire that

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is branded with an ideologically charged symbol actually influences one's ideology, because putting it on implies making a statement, and because people tend to agree with themselves, standing by the statements they make. Consequently, putting on attire that is branded with an ideologically hollow symbol, such as a designer logo, is nway of shrugging off ideology altogether and of denying the power of ideologically charged symbols. It gave young people a painless way to opt out of looking and feeling Soviet. Today, the United States is being flooded with imported consumer goods, j u s t as the Soviet Union was during the stagnation period of the 80s, and with similar impact on the country's trade deficits, b u t here these branded products are too common to serve as a social differentiator. To the contrary, with the exception of sports brands, it is the cheap clothing that is most often emblazoned with a corporate brand, not the high-priced articles. T h e few consumer articles that are still manufactured in the United States more often than not have a strangely old-fashioned, stolid, institutional look, reminiscent of Soviet production, and maintain their tentative foothold within the domestic market by appealing to the U S consumer's sense of patriotism. W h e n the exporting countries finally decide to stop selling their products on credit, and their container ships stop visiting America's ports, perhaps the institutional look will become fashionable. T h e n again, the h o m e - m a d e look may win out, or the threadbare look, or the clothing-optional look; the future of fashion is hard to predict. T h e worst possible outcome is that everyone will d o n uniforms, fashioning themselves into identical, mass-produced, ideologically lobotomized servants of the fully privatized, corporate-run state. Information

Technology

O n e area of superpower competition in which the United States declared early victory, and in which it is now handily defeating itself, is the area of information technology. T h e Soviet Union failed to keep u p for a n u m b e r of reasons, b u t perhaps the most important one was the insistence that the whole endeavor be shrouded in

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secrecy, for security reasons, d u e to t h e Soviet government's deep mistrust of its o w n people. Their failure to keep u p was especially striking in view of the fact that they h a d some of the best talent. D u r i n g the late 70s, m a n y of the pioneering American computer companies were staffed by specialists w h o h a d recently emigrated f r o m Russia. Also, the explosive development of computer technology has generally proceeded t h r o u g h oversight a n d r a n d o m , accidental successes, rather t h a n t h r o u g h successful central planning. T h e U S f u n d e d the development of Internet routing protocols hoping to create a n e t w o r k t h a t would b e resilient in the face of nuclear attack. Luckily, this ability was never to be tested, b u t the factors t h a t m a d e it resilient also m a d e it anarchic, a n d this eventually gave us w o r m s a n d viruses, botnets, peer-to-peer networks and spam. I B M released their P C architecture into the wild, thinking it worthless, a n d others took the basic blueprint a n d m a d e a m u l t i t u d e of cheap clones of it. A few tinkerers in a garage came u p with t h e first generation of Apple's machines. A few other tinkerers at Bell Labs used their copious spare time to write the Unix operating system, more or less as a joke, a n d it eventually took over m o s t of the bigger machines. It later m o r p h e d into Linux, which is now gradually taking over many of the smaller ones. M i c r o s o f t blundered across a good thing w h e n I B M mistakenly failed to provide a viable operating syst e m for the P C , a n d n o a m o u n t of subsequent blundering has been able to erase this initial advantage. T h e Soviets, with their secretiveness a n d tight central control, simply could n o t match this level of amateurism, h a p h a z a r d innovation a n d r a n d o m improvisation. It took a while, b u t the U n i t e d States eventually f o u n d ways to approximate t h e Soviet failure in this area, a n d is presently h a r d at w o r k looking for creative ways to kill t h e goose that lays golden eggs — by developing some secretiveness a n d tight central control of its own. T h e U S is executing a three-pronged attack on the goose: t h r o u g h enforcing intellectual property laws, t h r o u g h criminalizing w o r k in the area of computer security a n d t h r o u g h perpetuating a

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f r a u d called enterprise software, which has become something of a poster child for national dysfunction. It is in the n a t u r e of all information to want to spread freely, a n d networked computers make it ridiculously easy for it to d o so. This is really j u s t a m i n o r effect, because information f o u n d ways to be shared before the advent of computers a n d it will go on being shared after the lights go out for good a n d t h e disk drives stop spinning. But as computers started to displace newspapers, stereos, television sets and library books, corporate interests decided to start charging rent on the use of information, as opposed to charging for p r o d u c t s or services, a n d they p u s h e d t h r o u g h laws to make t h a t possible. These laws are h a r d to enforce a n d the information they are intended to hold for r a n s o m is easy to liberate, with some u n i n t e n d e d consequences. It is n o w possible to buy a D V D of an American film — or any other — in Beijing or Moscow before it even premieres in the U n i t e d States. It also means t h a t a Chinese or a Russian can generally use any commercial software free of charge, whereas an American has to either pay for it or be threatened with prosecution. T h e officials in these countries actually like intellectual property laws, because they give t h e m arbitrary authority to prosecute anyone they h a p p e n to dislike, but, based o n their record of enforcing these laws, they seem to like most people. Finally, let us consider the fact t h a t American corporate equity, with intellectual property included, is being b o u g h t u p by foreign interests, which are n o longer happy accepting U S Treasury paper. W h a t this means, in the end, is t h a t Americans will be reduced to paying foreigners for t h e privilege of using their o w n creations, while everyone else enjoys t h e m free of charge. A d d to this the dubious American innovation of extending patent law to cover software. Software is basically speech — an expression of t h e programmer's t h o u g h t s in mathematical or logical constructs — a n d software patents are limits on such speech, restricting what sorts of things a p r o g r a m m e r is allowed to write. According to the very highly respected computer scientist D o n a l d K n u t h , the computer revolution of the 1980s would probably never

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have h a p p e n e d h a d software patents existed then. T h e existence of software patents means t h a t any software project may r u n afoul of some n u m b e r of patents, which are expressed in vague a n d t o r t u r e d legalese, m a k i n g it legally unsafe to sell software in the U n i t e d States w i t h o u t entering into various corporate alliances by cross-licensing patents. T h e only viable strategy with regard to software patents is to fashion yourself into a sufficiently large nuisance by having plenty of patents of your o w n a n d by threatening litigation against anyone w h o infringes on them, so t h a t anyone thinking of litigating against you would o p t to negotiate a cross-licensing arrangement instead. This strategy is only o p e n to large a n d well-connected software companies, which are also t h e ones least likely to d o innovative work. W i t h regard to computer security, the U n i t e d States is making strides in making its computers less secure. C o m p u t e r systems are considered secure if they are very difficult to break into (it is never impossible, unless the power is off or the network cable is u n plugged) a n d n o t by virtue of the fact that n o b o d y is trying to break into t h e m . In fact, if the general public is prevented f r o m trying, t h e n we are to assume t h a t they are n o t secure at all, because they have not been tested in a real world environment. Currently, federal prosecutors in the U n i t e d States are trying to extradite a British youth, G a r y M c K i n n o n , w h o broke into some D e p a r t m e n t of Defense systems looking for evidence of U F O s . Clearly, American officials find it easier to secure their jails t h a n their computer systems, b u t since it is n o t possible to pre-emptively imprison every potential hacker, this is n o t an effective w o r k a r o u n d . S u c h prosecutorial zeal is very helpful to professional information thieves, w h o might want to hack into the government's systems in order to accomplish something more serious — say, steal a nuclear b o m b or two — by making sure t h a t their security remains untested by helpful amateurs. T h e t h i r d p r o n g of t h e three-pronged attack o n I T is t h e effort to maximally bureaucratize t h e process of software developm e n t via something called enterprise software. T h e p r o g r a m m e r is n o w b u r i e d u n d e r layers of n o n - p r o g r a m m e r s : p r o d u c t managers,

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project managers, solutions architects, various other managers a n d directors, a n d let's n o t forget marketing a n d sales. T h e product, if one ever emerges, is evaluated by technical buyers, n o t by the p o o r people w h o will have to actually use it. T h e software itself is built u p of a m u l t i t u d e of pieces, many of t h e m purchased and licensed separately, a n d getting these pieces to talk to each other often requires diplomatic efforts by a team of consultants. Finally, it all has to be written in a language t h a t is maximally bureaucratized as well. Imagine a language whose dictionary defines each n o u n as a list of other n o u n s , which are defined elsewhere, followed by a list of verbs t h a t apply specifically to t h a t noun, b u t only some of which are defined. N o w try writing something using this language. You will have to b e creative, because you will have to find ways to navigate the strictures of the language, b u t you will soon enough find t h a t you are too demoralized to actually say anything new or interesting. Is it any wonder, then, that so few people w a n t to get degrees in computer science? A n d so it h a p p e n s that all the best software is now written outside of t h e large software companies a n d is free, while horribly bloated, bug-infested, expensive, unstable and only marginally usable software is m o r e often t h a n n o t the flagship p r o d u c t of one of America's premier software companies. I n f o r m a tion technology is one of the few sectors of the economy t h a t the U n i t e d States could be p r o u d of, a n d these developments d o n o t b o d e well for it.

T H E C O S T OF T E C H N O L O G I C A L P R O G R E S S

W h e t h e r one succeeds or fails in any given technological endeavor, technological progress itself exacts a high cost o n b o t h t h e natural a n d the m a n - m a d e environment. Both in the former Soviet Union and in N o r t h America, the landscape has fallen victim to a massive, centrally managed uglification program. Moscow's central planners p u t u p identical drab a n d soulless buildings t h r o u g h o u t the vastness of Soviet territory, disregarding regional architectural traditions a n d erasing local culture. America's land developers have played a largely similar role, with a similarly ghastly result: the U n i t e d States

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of Generica, where many places can be told apart only by reading their highway signs. T h e commonplace result is a place n o t w o r t h caring about — w h e t h e r you are f r o m there or not, it is j u s t like m o s t other such places in the world. T h e Soviet public's faith in science a n d technology was severely shaken by the explosion of nuclear reactor n u m b e r four at Chernobyl. N o t only did t h e disaster itself expose an obvious lack of technical competence (it was caused, it later t u r n e d out, by the technical incompetence of some political appointees), b u t the lack of t r u t h f u l n e s s in addressing the immediate consequences a n d in communicating t h e t r u e state of affairs to the public did much to u n d e r m i n e t r u s t in the government, as well as tarnishing the prestige of science a n d technology overall. Initial public pronouncem e n t s t h a t "the reactor core is being cooled" were followed by evidence t h a t there was n o reactor core left. Highly radioactive chunks of nuclear fuel a n d graphite m o d e r a t o r rods t h a t once m a d e u p the reactor core were later f o u n d scattered a r o u n d t h e reactor site. T h e catastrophe awakened a latent environmentalist sentiment within the population: these were their ancestral lands t h a t were being m a d e radioactive a n d uninhabitable for generations. Specialists with access to scientific e q u i p m e n t ceased to have faith in the veracity of official government research a n d began to m a k e and exchange their o w n m e a s u r e m e n t s of radioactivity a n d industrial pollutant levels. T h e results were n o t encouraging a n d many started to feel t h a t the Soviet economic development p r o g r a m h a d to be s h u t down. T h e C h e r n o b y l disaster has some elements in c o m m o n with the handling of the h u m a n i t a r i a n disaster following H u r r i c a n e Katrina. Similarities include lack of truthfulness in addressing the immediate consequences, loss of ancestral lands a n d political appointeeism (a horse specialist nicknamed "Brownie" was t h r u s t in c o m m a n d , based o n his credentials as t h e college r o o m m a t e of a friend of the President). A f t e r H u r r i c a n e Katrina, the government continued to claim that the refugees were being evacuated, while in reality they were h e r d e d together, t u r n e d back by police a n d national guard

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troops when they tried to walk out of the disaster zone and allowed to die. As with Chernobyl, the government continued to lie until there was a public outcry, with much damage to the reputations of all concerned. Differences include the fact that an increased frequency of killer hurricanes and other extreme weather events is a predicted consequence of ongoing rapid climate change. Rather than one giant explosion, this is more likely to be death by a thousand cuts. After each one, the promise of a technological remedy will begin to seem ever more outlandish, and the person proffering it will come to be seen as progressively less trustworthy. MILITARISM

T h e arms race is commonly viewed as the key element of the superpower standoff k n o w n as the Cold W a r (one hesitates to call it a conflict or even a confrontation because both sides diligently practiced conflict avoidance through deterrence, detente and arms control negotiations). Military deterrence and parity is seen as the p a r a m o u n t defining factor of the bipolar world that was dominated by the two superpowers. Military primacy between the United States and the Soviet Union was never actively contested and there was quite a lot of inconclusive militaristic preening and posturing. W h i l e the Americans feel that they won the Cold W a r (since the other side forfeited the contest) and are about to start awarding themselves medals for this feat, it is actually something of a success story for Russia. Beyond the superficial and assumed offensive parity, the historical landscapes that underlie Soviet and American militarisms could n o t be more different. H i e United States considers itself a victor country: it goes to war when it wishes and it likes to win. It has not been invaded during any of the major modern conflicts and war, to it, is primarily about victory. Russia is a victim country. It has been invaded several times, but, since the Mongol invasion, never successfully. To Russians, war is not about victory — it is about death. The epithet that Russians like to apply to their country is nepobedimaya — "undefeatable."

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T h e U n i t e d States is a country that enjoys b o m b i n g other countries. T h e Soviets, having seen m u c h of their country b o m b e d to smithereens d u r i n g W o r l d W a r II, h a d a particularly well- developed sense of their vulnerability. T o compensate for it, they devoted a large part of their centrally planned economy to defense. T h e y p r o d u c e d a staggering n u m b e r of nuclear missiles, nuclear submarines, tanks, bombers, fighter jets, warships a n d other military j u n k , m u c h of which now sits quietly rusting somewhere a n d perpetually threatening to wreak havoc on the environment. T h e nuclear stockpile continues to pose a particularly nasty problem. M u c h of this war p r o d u c t i o n was a complete waste a n d even the object of some h u m o r : "I work at a sewing machine factory, b u t every time I bring t h e parts h o m e a n d assemble t h e m , I end u p with a machine gun!" But they did n o t get b o m b e d by the Americans — hence victory. T h e list of countries which the U S has b o m b e d since the e n d of W o r l d W a r II is a long one, f r o m "A" for Afghanistan to " Y" for Yemen (that the list does n o t r u n "A" t o " Z " is presumably explained by the fact that Z a m b i a a n d Z i m b a b w e d o n o t present a sufficiently target-rich environment to Americas military planners). T h e Soviet U n i o n did not d o nearly as m u c h bombing. Czechoslovakia a n d H u n g a r y received w h a t a m o u n t e d to a slap. Afghanistan was the one significant exception, playing host to a sustained a n d bloody military confrontation. Perhaps one positive effect of having one's h o m e l a n d extensively b o m b e d is that it makes one t h i n k twice a b o u t inflicting t h a t experience o n others. A n d so it is quite a satisfactory o u t c o m e t h a t the U n i t e d States has n o t been able t o b o m b a single country within the f o r m e r W a r saw Pact a n d to this day has to play careful with Russia a n d her friends. This is because m u t u a l assured destruction remains in effect: each side has enough nuclear weapons to obliterate the other. Since this is an affront to the American military ego, Americans have continued to preen a n d posture, announcing a defense doctrine t h a t allows nuclear first strikes a n d actively pursuing the develo p m e n t of strategic missile defense. T h e Russians d o n o t appear to be i m p r e s s e d . " W e believe this strategic anti-missile defense system

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is s o m e w h a t chimerical, to p u t it mildly," said Sergei Ivanov, Russia's first d e p u t y p r i m e minister. " O n e can find a m u c h cheaper response to any such system." T h e cheapest response I can t h i n k of is simply having M r . Ivanov periodically stand u p a n d say a few words. Perhaps t h a t is all the response the situation calls for, b u t Russia sells a lot of weapons, including a n e w generation of supersonic missiles a n d torpedoes, against which the U S has no adequate defense, and successfully marketing t h e m requires taking a stand in defense of national military prestige. A n d so we are b o u n d to hear a great deal more about Americans destabilizing the security of Europe, a n d about Russia countering this threat with some anti-missile chimeras of their o w n — much cheaper ones. T h e U n i t e d States needs a new Cold W a r to show itself a n d the world t h a t it still matters, a n d Russia, finding the venture n o t too risky a n d quite profitable, is willing to hold u p a mirror to American militarism. But the whole thing is a farce, a n d Vladimir P u t i n was quick to offer an old Russian saying by way of explaining it: "Don't blame t h e mirror if your face is crooked." Russia has scaled back defense spending considerably after the Soviet collapse, b u t t h e defense budget of the U n i t e d States has kept growing like a t u m o r a n d is on course to match a n d surpass w h a t the entire rest of the world spends on defense. W h i l e one might naively assume that the rest of the world is quivering before such overwhelming military might, nothing of the sort is occurring. T h e r e is a little secret t h a t everyone knows: the United States military does not k n o w h o w to win. It j u s t knows h o w to blow things up. Blowing things u p may b e fun, b u t it cannot b e the only element in a winning strategy. T h e other key element is winning the peace once m a j o r combat operations are over, a n d here the mighty U S military tends to fall squarely o n its face a n d lay p r o n e until political s u p p o r t for the war is w i t h d r a w n a n d the troops are b r o u g h t back h o m e . T h e U n i t e d States could not conquer N o r t h Korea, resulting in the world's longest-running cease-fire. It is a stalemate p u n c t u a t e d by crises. T h e U n i t e d States could n o t defeat the N o r t h Vietnamese with their u n d e r g r o u n d tunnels and their primarily bicycle-based

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transportation system. T h e first G u l f W a r was precipitated by a m i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g caused by diplomatic incompetence: S a d d a m H u s s e i n was a generally cooperative a n d helpful tyrant a n d all could have been resolved amicably h a d n o t April Glaspie, the U S ambassador to Iraq, told h i m : " W e have n o opinion o n your A r a b - A r a b conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait." S a d d a m took her at her word a n d t h o u g h t t h a t h e could p u n i s h the Kuwaitis for stealing his oil. Bush Senior then proceeded to stand p o o r April on her head, declaring t h a t "this will n o t stand!" T h e ensuing skirmish ended inconclusively, with Iraq humiliated and in stasis for a generation. This was considered a victory, with endless parades and much flag-waving. T h e U S military was said to have recovered f r o m " V i e t n a m syndrome." But n o t h i n g could hide the fact t h a t it was a j o b left unfinished. T h e m o r e recent Iraq war is a full-blown, complete disaster, like Vietnam, or like Afghanistan was for the Soviets, b u t actually a lot worse, because Iraq is situated in the region which produces most of the oil. T h e longer U S troops stay in Iraq, the worse the situation there becomes. T h e longer they wait to withdraw, the worse the situation will be once they do. Iraq started o u t as a war of choice (a startlingly p o o r choice) b u t it is n o w a war of survival — certainly of America's status as a superpower, a n d quite possibly of its economic survival as well. Moreover, it is a war that appears to have already been lost. T h e rest of America's recent military conflicts either consisted of or centered a r o u n d a b o m b i n g campaign, a n d generally fall into one of two categories: strategic spoiling attacks, and attempts to bolster t h e presidential m a n h o o d . A strategic spoiling attack is a preventive action against a potential enemy who, if left unchecked, might attack you some time in the f u t u r e . It is m o r e or less a bullying tactic, and, as such, already an admission of defeat on the diplomatic f r o n t . O n e should prefer to live a m o n g strong friends, n o t weakened enemies. Presidential manhood-bolstering b o m b i n g campaigns have come f r o m b o t h sides of the political s p e c t r u m (not m u c h of a

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spectrum, it t u r n s out, since b o t h sides are shades of ultra-violent). T h e r e was the b o m b i n g of P a n a m a , ostensibly to p u n i s h t h e apostate C I A asset M a n u e l Noriega, b u t really to mitigate against Bush Senior's so-called "wimp factor." T h e r e was also Clinton's d e s p o n d e n t b o m b i n g of an aspirin factory in t h e S u d a n a n d the bouncing a r o u n d of some rocks in Afghanistan, ostensibly to p u n ish terrorists for b o m b i n g U S embassies in East Africa, b u t really to express frustration over t h e inordinate difficulties faced by the leader of the free world as a result of procuring oral sex. I feel his pain, but, to paraphrase Freud, sometimes a cruise missile isn't j u s t a cruise missile. It may appear t h a t the U S military is n o t capable of prevailing over any enemy, n o m a t t e r h o w badly armed, demoralized or minuscule. W h i l e the Koreans a n d t h e Vietnamese were formidable, the U S military could n o t bring to heel even the starving Somalis with their pickup trucks full of narcotic cud-chewing, Kalashnikovtoting youths. N o r could they pacify the Iraqis, even after softening t h e m u p with b o m b s a n d sanctions for m o r e t h a n a decade. T h e r e is one notable exception. If we look at any of the military conflicts that involved the U S military since W o r l d W a r II, there is one that stands out as a complete success: t h e liberation of the tiny Caribbean island of G r e n a d a . There, valiant American troops dislodged an unsavory a n d frightening Marxist regime which was s u p p o r t e d by C u b a a n d Nicaragua a n d replaced it with a democratic, proAmerican regime, m u c h to t h e satisfaction of Grenada's Caribbean neighbors a n d cruising yachtsmen alike. T h e Soviets never learned their lesson in Afghanistan. T h e slow, relentless, senseless carnage of that war did m u c h to tarnish the image of the R e d Army, which was until t h e n still regarded as the people's champion for defeating H i t l e r a n d for standing u p to the Americans. It t o o k the disaster of the t w o campaigns in C h e c h n y a after t h e Soviet collapse for the message to finally sink in. Russia eventually got C h e c h n y a u n d e r control, t h r o u g h political rather t h a n military means. A military effort alone can never defeat a p o p u l a r insurgency. T h e insurgents never have to win, they j u s t

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have to continue to fight. In fighting t h e m , the military is forced to fight t h e people of the country, a n d by perpetuating a state of war it continually thwarts its stated purpose, which is to establish peace. T h e r e is n o r o o m for victory in this scenario, b u t only for an everwidening spiral of murder, hatred a n d shame. T h e lesson t h a t the U n i t e d States desperately needs to learn is t h a t their trillion-dollar-a-year military is n o t h i n g m o r e t h a n a gigantic public m o n e y sponge t h a t provokes outrage a m o n g friends a n d enemies alike a n d p u t s t h e country in ill repute. It is useless against its enemies, because they k n o w better t h a n to engage it directly. It can never be used t o defeat any of the major, nuclear p o w ers, because sufficient deterrence against it can be maintained for relatively little money. It can never defuse a popular insurgency, because t h a t takes political a n d diplomatic finesse, n o t a compulsion to b o m b far-away places. Political a n d diplomatic finesse cannot b e procured, even for a trillion dollars, even in a country t h a t believes in extreme makeovers. A s Vladimir P u t i n p u t it, "If g r a n d m o t h e r h a d testicles, shed be a g r a n d f a t h e r " T h e long sequence of American military failures in its many wars of choice may n o t b e significant in a n d of itself. People t h r o u g h o u t the world may cringe, b u t it is easy for Americans to consign these u n h a p p y adventures to oblivion. T h e y are skilled at rewriting, if n o t history, t h e n at least their strangely foggy recollections of it. But at some p o i n t a key national interest becomes involved a n d t h e military adventure becomes m o r e t h a n j u s t a way for the military to justify having an outsized budget. For the Soviets, this point came w h e n they lost Afghanistan. T h e y were in Afghanistan in accordance with the Brezhnev Doctrine, which stated unequivocally t h a t n o Socialist country would b e allowed to backslide toward barbarous Capitalism. O n c e they let go of Afghanistan the tide t u r n e d , a n d the C o m m u n i s t s h a d t o let go of t h e W a r s a w Pact, the Soviet U n i o n , a n d finally Russia itself. It is c o m m o n knowledge t h a t the U S forces invaded Iraq for n o adequately explained reason. W h a t few people realize is t h a t there is an American c o u n t e r p a r t t o the Brezhnev Doctrine. It is the C a r t e r

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Doctrine, which states that the U n i t e d States would use military force if necessary to defend its national interests in the Persian G u l f region. C a r t e r a n n o u n c e d it in a State of the U n i o n speech in J a n u ary of 1980, in response to t h e Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It is in the national interest of the U n i t e d States to be able to efficiently exploit the oil resources of Iraq a n d direct the resulting flow of oil to eager motorists back h o m e . T h e military failure in Iraq (which as of this writing appears complete) is t a n t a m o u n t to a declaration that the C a r t e r D o c t r i n e is no longer in effect. T h e ensuing backslide will mean m o r e t h a n j u s t the loss of Iraqi oil production; it may force the U S o u t of the entire region. Coupled with other u n h a p p y developments, such as the ongoing devaluation of t h e U S dollar, widespread oil production shortfalls due to oil field depletion a n d increasing political instability in several oil-exporting countries, this may cause the U S to lose access to oil in other regions as well. This will not make motorists back h o m e happy. Moreover, it will spell the e n d of the American d r e a m of global d o m i n a n c e a n d the definitive loss of superpower status. A f t e r the Soviet U n i o n collapsed, Russia faced a dilemma. It h a d stationed a great many troops abroad in Eastern E u r o p e a n d particularly in East Germany. These troops were n o t all Russian: some were recruited f r o m the various Soviet Republics, a n d their allegiance was to the R e d A r m y — an entity t h a t no longer existed. Repatriating a n d resettling these troops t u r n e d o u t to be a logistical nightmare. T h e r e was n o housing a n d n o j o b s for the returning troops. But this was n o t h i n g compared to the problem that will be faced by the U n i t e d States, which has over a t h o u s a n d overseas military bases. T h e vast majority of these serve no vital p u r p o s e a n d are f u r t h e r examples of massive military bloat. In the coming years, starved of fuel a n d other resources, they will become worse t h a n useless. Liquidating t h e m and repatriating the troops will pose a far greater challenge t h a n that faced by the Soviets. A m i d the general confusion, some of the smaller military installations are likely to be simply forgotten, with the troops left to fend for themselves a n d their weapons going missing.

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T h e last aspect of the superpower arms race worth mentioning is the arms sales race. The U S and the S U both supplied weapons to their client states. The U S conducted their arms trade on better terms, by lending the client state money with which to buy the weapons or by forcing the client state to spend its oil export revenue on weapons systems. T h e Soviets more or less gave their weapons away to the brotherly peoples they held in their sway. Russia, which inherited most of the Soviet defense industry, has updated its business plan, and is now positioned to surpass the United States in weapons sales. Military defeats do not make for successful weapons marketing campaigns. WORLD'S JAILERS

T h e jails race once showed the Soviets with a decisive lead, thanks to their innovative Gulag program. U n d e r Lenin, and later under Stalin, millions of people were herded into labor camps to provide slave labor for massive construction projects such as the Belomor Canal, which links the Baltic to the N o r t h Sea. Over the years, the inmate population was comprised not only of criminals, who were always plentiful, b u t also of aristocrats associated with the ancien regime who were not fleet enough to emigrate to a new career of driving taxicabs in Berlin, Paris or N e w York. The inmates also included ethnic minorities such as the Chechens (who found themselves in disfavor after they welcomed the N a z i invaders), soldiers who had surrendered to the enemy instead of dying heroically (surrender was considered a form of desertion), priests and nuns (to rid the country of unscientific "religious superstitions") and plenty of innocent bystanders, who were swept up by a well-oiled judiciary machine. T h e arrests often happened in the middle of the night and those arrested simply vanished f r o m society. Their disappearance was studiously ignored and the families of the disappeared were shunned by society. Society was afraid, b u t since any admission of fear could be misinterpreted as an admission of guilt (of suspecting that the system itself was criminal), even the fear had to remain hidden.

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A f t e r Stalin's death, a gradual liberalization took place. M a n y of those falsely accused and imprisoned were rehabilitated, often posthumously. Thereafter, the ranks of the political prisoners s h r a n k steadily. T h e appearance of Alexander Solzhenitsyn's The

Gulag

Archipelago became a watershed event, lifting t h e veil on a secret parallel universe, with its own language and customs, yet one that was very recognizably Soviet. It could operate in the shadows, b u t once t h r u s t into the broad light of day it immediately became obvious for w h a t it was: a world-class abomination, o n p a r with the N a z i holocaust. A popular m o v e m e n t developed, devoted to keeping track of prisoners of conscience a n d communicating their names to foreign news sources. T h e resulting external pressure on the Soviet gove r n m e n t m a d e it difficult for the judiciary meat grinder to operate normally. T h e monsters r u n n i n g this system generally did n o t crave parading their monstrousness before a world audience, and this gradually starved the system of new blood. N e a r the end, u n der General Secretary Andropov, there was an a t t e m p t to stem the tide by r o u n d i n g u p a few dissidents, w h o by this time h a d grown quite bold in their opposition, b u t it was futile a n d died along with A n d r o p o v w h e n he, as it were, d r o p p e d off. A n d so the Soviet U n i o n gradually fell b e h i n d in the jails race. By the time t h e Soviet U n i o n fell apart, its worst atrocities h a d started to recede into history. T h e r e were no widespread calls for reprisals against those w h o h a d c o m m i t t e d them, w h o were by t h e n either retired or dead. In the end the jails race has been w o n by the Americans, w h o are currently holding t h e world record for the percentage of population held in jail. Here, the judiciary meat grinder relies less o n secrecy t h a n on obscurity, gorging itself on the p o o r a n d the defenseless, while being careful a r o u n d t h e moneyed and the privileged. To m a s k its naked aggression against its citizens, the U n i t e d States has traditionally used t h e fig leafs of constitutional rights a n d due p r o cess. But t h e ill winds now blowing across the country have wilted this decorative flora, and n o t a week seems to go by w i t h o u t some new reports of abuses or atrocities.

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T h e American justice system favors the educated, the corporations a n d the rich, a n d takes unfair advantage of the uneducated, t h e private citizen a n d the poor. It would seem that almost any legal entanglement can be resolved t h r o u g h the judicious application of money, while almost any tussle with t h e law can result in

financial

penalties a n d even i m p r i s o n m e n t for those w h o are forced t o rely on public defenders. In essence, any sufficiently complex system of laws is inherently unjust, favoring those few w h o have the resources to grapple with its extreme complexity. This is clearly t h e case in the United States where, in civil disputes, those with m o r e m o n e y can almost always prevail over those with less, simply by threatening to sue. M a n y people believe that a criminal is someone w h o c o m m i t s a criminal act. This is n o t true, at least n o t in the American system of justice. Here, a criminal is someone w h o has been accused of committing a criminal act, tried for it a n d f o u n d guilty. W h e t h e r or n o t t h a t person has in fact c o m m i t t e d the act is immaterial: witnesses may lie, evidence can b e fabricated, juries can b e manipulated. O n t h e other h a n d , a person w h o has c o m m i t t e d a criminal act b u t has n o t been tried for it, or has been tried a n d exonerated, is n o t a criminal, a n d for anyone to call h i m a criminal is libelous. It therefore follows that, within the American justice system, committing a crime a n d getting away with it is substantially identical to n o t c o m m i t t i n g a crime at all. Wealthy clients have lawyers w h o are constantly testing and, whenever possible, expanding t h e b o u n d s of legality. C o r p o r a t i o n s have entire armies of lawyers a n d can almost always win against individuals. Furthermore, corporations use their political influence to p r o m o t e the use of binding arbitration, which favors them, as the way to resolve disputes. T h e U S is by n o means u n i q u e in jailing or executing innocents a n d in neglecting to p u n i s h t h e guilty. But while in other countries such injustices can be p u t d o w n t o corruption, oppression or other problems with the justice system, in the U S they are designed into the justice system itself. This state of affairs makes it hopelessly naive for anyone to confuse legality with morality, ethics or justice.

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You should always behave in a legal manner, b u t this will n o t necessarily save you f r o m going to jail. In w h a t m a n n e r you choose to behave legally is between you a n d your conscience, G o d or lawyer, if you h a p p e n to have one, a n d may or may n o t have anything to d o with obeying laws. Legality is a p r o p e r t y of the justice system, while justice is an ancient virtue. T h i s distinction is lost on very few people: m o s t people possess a sense of justice and, separate f r o m it, an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of w h a t is legal a n d w h a t they can get away with. T h e U S legal system, as it stands, offers a fine luxury model, b u t its budget model is manifestly unsafe. It is good for those w h o can afford it a n d b a d for those w h o cannot. In recent years, appalling n u m b e r s of those awaiting execution have been exonerated as a result of D N A testing. This a m o u n t s to an a t t e m p t e d m u r d e r rate high enough to c o n d e m n t h e entire criminal justice system t h a t is responsible for it and, at the very least, ban everyone involved in it f r o m f u r t h e r public service. But n o t h i n g of t h e sort is likely to happen, since most of the victims are p o o r a n d are therefore of no consequence to the larger system. A s ever-increasing n u m b e r s of people find themselves lapsing into poverty, they will also find t h a t they cannot pay w h a t it takes to secure a good legal o u t c o m e for themselves. T h e y will start to see the system n o t as one of justice b u t as a tool of oppression, a n d will learn to avoid it rather t h a n look to it for help. A s oppression becomes t h e n o r m , at some p o i n t the pretense to be serving justice will be dispensed w i t h in favor of a m u c h simpler, efficient, streamlined system of social control, p e r h a p s o n e based o n martial law. To some extent, this shift has already occurred. America n o w has secret jails, indefinite detention, secret tribunals, Soviet-style show trials, torture of prisoners, family detention for those w h o h a p p e n to cross US-controlled territory w i t h o u t t h e p r o p e r papers a n d psychiatric i m p r i s o n m e n t for b o t h adults a n d children, where they are subjected to regimens of experimental anti-psychotic drugs. T h o s e w h o b e m o a n the out-of-control American criminal justice system w o u l d like to find ways to make it more effective.

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But p e r h a p s the real problem is t h a t it is too effective, a n d needs to become m u c h less so. It is obvious t h a t the jails race serves t h e p u r p o s e s of the law enforcement class, providing t h e m with employment, status a n d ample f u n d s . But it bears pointing o u t t h a t it serves the interests of t h e criminal class even better. T h e prison system offers m a n y services to criminals: it allows t h e m to congregate, netw o r k a n d hold seminars o n the finer points of criminal technique a n d new ways to c o m m i t bigger a n d better crimes w i t h o u t getting caught. Furthermore, it gives criminals a periodic sabbatical, making r o o m for t w o million more criminals t h a n the victim population could otherwise sustain, ensuring t h a t whenever there arises a fruitful o p p o r t u n i t y to c o m m i t a crime, an ample supply of well-rested a n d highly trained specialists is available to m a k e use of it. H i e rationale for imprisoning over t w o million people in t h e U n i t e d States — the world's highest rate of incarceration — is t h a t it deters crime. Sociologists slice a n d dice crime statistics looking for a correlation between increased rates of incarceration a n d decreased crime rates. T h e best they seem to be able to find is a correlation of a b o u t 0.25 between an increased rate of incarceration a n d a decrease in the crime rate. T h a t is, the measurable effect of incarceration levels o n crime levels is n o t significant enough to state t h a t an increase in t h e f o r m e r causes a decrease in the latter. M o r e evidence w o u l d be needed to declare t h a t the mass incarceration p r o g r a m is in any sense functional. It is sometimes possible to find a stronger correlation between, say, rain dances a n d rainfall amounts. W h i l e the criminal justice system seems like an effective way to p r o m o t e crime, it may be even m o r e effective in serving the atavistic desire of t h e population to see p u n i s h m e n t doled out, which in m o r e barbaric times b r o u g h t crowds to gaze u p at the sacrificial altar atop a pyramid, or t h e scaffold, the stake or the guillotine, a n d which even today brings a strange glint to the eye of American elected leaders w h e n the subject of capital p u n i s h m e n t comes u p d u r i n g political debates. It is in t h e nature of powerless people to vicariously enjoy the exercise of arbitrary power by others.

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W h e r e a s t h e Nazis h a d to t a t t o o identification n u m b e r s on their concentration camp victims, Americans n o w have access to m o r e m o d e r n technology, such as implantable radio-frequency identification ( R F I D ) tags, biometric a n d face-recognition systems, satellite surveillance, ubiquitous surveillance cameras a n d globally networked databases. These can theoretically enable the U n i t e d States to t u r n m u c h of the planet into a single large Gulag, or at least to overextend itself a n d collapse while trying. W h e n this system finally collapses (as they all do), its surviving victims, w h o have n o experience of anything better, will likely p e r p e t u a t e this culture of abuse at an ever lower a n d more miserable level. A t this point, there is really very little to b e d o n e about the American culture of crime — except suffer f r o m it, reaping what has already been sown. T h e long-term effect of p e r p e t u a t i n g an unequal a n d u n j u s t social order, amplified by a p r o g r a m of mass imprisonment, is to create a vast society of victims. EVIL EMPIRES

W h e n Ronald Reagan referred to the Soviet U n i o n as the "evil empire," this label, impolitic t h o u g h it was, m a d e sense to a great n u m ber of people a n d the label stuck. But w h a t a difference two decades can make! Shortly after Reagan stood at the B r a n d e n b u r g G a t e in Berlin a n d spoke the w o r d s , " M r . Gorbachev, tear d o w n this wall!" the Berlin wall was indeed broken d o w n into souvenir-sized pieces, b u t twenty years later big political walls are again fashionable, except now it is Americans and their clients that are p u t t i n g t h e m up. There is a wall along the U S - M e x i c a n border, countless walls carving u p Palestine into a p a t t e r n J i m m y C a r t e r accurately labeled as "apartheid," a currently stalled plan to partition Baghdad into Shiite and S u n n i ghettos a n d n u m e r o u s walls within the U S itself a r o u n d gated communities and exclusive c o m p o u n d s . For an American, hiding b e h i n d a wall is becoming an increasingly good idea. O v e r the last t w o decades, m e m o r y of the Soviet U n i o n has faded f r o m view, while the U n i t e d States has taken its place as the symbol of all t h a t is evil t h r o u g h o u t m u c h of Europe,

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the M u s l i m countries a n d m a n y other parts of the world. W h e r e v e r there is public protest — b e it against war, injustice, globalization, violations of h u m a n rights, environmental destruction or policies that accelerate catastrophic climate change — it is the U n i t e d States t h a t offers a conveniently large a n d easy target. W h i l e m u c h of the population t h r o u g h o u t the world is dead set against cooperation with the U n i t e d States, their political leaders have to b e careful: the U n i t e d States is still a little too powerful to oppose directly. O n the other h a n d , any appearance of overt appeasement of American ambitions has come to spell automatic disaster at the polls, so the politicians stall and bide their time. A s t h e ultimately futile nine-year Soviet occupation of A f g h a n istan wore on, t h e economy stagnated a n d a succession of dour, gray-faced, geriatric General Secretaries succeeded each other atop the Lenin mausoleum, a n u m b e r of people within t h e higher echelons of the C o m m u n i s t party started to find their evilness somew h a t humiliating. T h e imperial status was non-negotiable, as was the socialist ideology, b u t some sort of w o r k a r o u n d strategy was clearly required for the evilness bit. Gorbachev gave voice to these official yearnings t h r o u g h his glasnost andperestroika campaigns. A great n u m b e r of partial excuses, of the "mistakes were made" variety, were offered. I r e m e m b e r a certain conversation t h a t took place a r o u n d t h a t time, in the late 80s. T h e topic of discussion was," W h a t could these bastards (meaning the Soviet government) possibly w a n t now?" A wizened old lady offered an answer t h a t seemed nonsensical at first, b u t m a d e a lot of sense u p o n reflection: they w a n t shame. T h e y are tired of being b a d as in'evil"; n o w they j u s t want to be b a d as i n ' n o t very good." T h e y are even willing to feel a little bit a s h a m e d about it a n d to offer some vaguely w o r d e d apologies, provided t h a t these fall well short of t h e m actually accepting any responsibility. You see, evil a n d incompetence d o n o t mix. O u r imagination cannot conceive of t h e Devil w h o w o u l d have your i m m o r t a l soul in a jiffy, if only he could locate the p a p e r w o r k . It's one H e l l of a mess d o w n there. T h e d e m o n s w h o handle t h e p a p e r w o r k have become so lazy it's a sin.

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"To hell with t h e m ! " the Devil w o u l d like to say, b u t that's where they reside already, plus he can't recall the details of w h o lost what when, and so there is n o t h i n g to be done. A s mistakes continue to be made, the sinners can breathe m o r e easily. Twenty years later, it is the American officials t h a t are making a spectacular show of their incompetence. But rather t h a n mincing words Gorbachev-style, the Americans are able to achieve a wonderful theatrical effect, t h a n k s to their plain-spoken, straight-talking President. F r o m "Mission accomplished," spoken as the Iraqi insurgency takes off, to "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job!" as N e w Orleans drowns, to m a n y other, similarly preposterous statements, we hear a Presidential clarion call to national incompetence. It is a mistake to view such utterances as gaffes or blunders or flights of whimsy: they are true t h o u g h t leadership. O t h e r high officials have their o w n strategies: the Vice President pretends to be delusional, producing a steady stream of strongly w o r d e d statements of fiction, while the former A t t o r n e y General simulates early onset Alzheimer's with a compelling display of fogged memory. O t h e r administration officials make a show of accidentally destroying imp o r t a n t d o c u m e n t s but, for a d d e d effect, they destroy t h e m incompetently, so t h a t copies are soon retrieved. American officials at all levels should fall in line with this brilliant strategy t h a t has been h a n d e d d o w n to t h e m f r o m o n high as stone tablets f r o m M o u n t Sinai. S h o u l d they fail to d o so, history will r e m e m b e r t h e m as evil. S h o u l d they succeed, history will mercifully consign their m e m o r y to oblivion, j u d g i n g t h e m to be merely incompetent. BANKRUPTCY

For several decades now, the U S dollar has been able to keep its value in the face of ever larger trade a n d fiscal imbalances largely because it is the currency m o s t of the world uses w h e n buying oil. O t h e r nations have been forced to export p r o d u c t s to the U n i t e d States because this is the only way for t h e m to gather the dollars they need to purchase oil. This has p r o d u c e d a continuous windfall for the U S Treasury. This state of affairs is coming to an end: as

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m o r e a n d m o r e oil-producing nations find alternative ways of doing business with their customers, trading oil for Euros or food, the U S dollar erodes in value. A s the dollar d r o p s in value, the price of an ever-increasing list of essential i m p o r t s goes up, driving u p inflation. A t some point, inflation will start to feed o n itself a n d will give rise to hyperinflation. If your immediate t h o u g h t is, "Hyperinflation in the U S ? Impossible!" t h e n you are n o t alone. A lot of people have trouble thinking a b o u t the possibility of hyperinflation, economists a m o n g t h e m . Hyperinflation, they say, requires the government to emit vast a m o u n t s of money, which, being a good, p r u d e n t government, it simply will n o t do. But this government is d r o w n i n g in red ink a n d will d o w h a t desperate governments have always done: o p t for inflating its d e b t away rather t h a n defaulting o n it, to retain at least some spending ability in t h e face of a collapsing tax base a n d d r i e d - u p foreign credit. T h e people at the Fed d o have to be kept fed, after all. S o m e of those w h o d o u b t t h e inevitability of hyperinflation point to the weakness of trade unions, and say that workers in t h e U S are too poorly organized to bargain collectively a n d secure cost of living a d j u s t m e n t s that would propel the economy along an inflationary

spiral. These people seem to feel t h a t the workers will

s o m e h o w continue to be able to w o r k even as their entire paycheck disappears as they buy gasoline for their daily c o m m u t e . T h e y rem i n d me of the proverbial farmer w h o trained his horse to stop eating a n d almost succeeded, b u t unfortunately the horse died first. T h o s e w h o have w o r k t h a t needs to be d o n e will have to m a k e it physically possible for someone to d o it. T h e r e are also plenty of people in the U S — the ones w h o are closer to the top of t h e economic f o o d chain or j u s t feel like they are — w h o will pay themselves whatever they require, giving t h e m selves, a n d those u p o n whose loyalty they m u s t depend, any cost of living a d j u s t m e n t they d e e m necessary. T h e y will continue doing so until they are b a n k r u p t . Because wealth is distributed so unevenly, these people m a k e a disproportionately large difference.

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Lastly, there is a large g r o u p of people w h o feel t h a t such matters are for economists to decide. But decide for yourself: in M a r c h of 1999, The Economist ran a cover story entitled " D r o w n i n g in Oil." In D e c e m b e r of the same year, it was compelled to publish a retraction. Economists are starting to look a bit ridiculous, as their predictive abilities are repeatedly s h o w n to be quite feeble. Moreover, the whole discipline of economics is starting to become irrelevant because its m a i n concern is with characterizing a system — the fossil fuel-based growth economy — which is starting to collapse. Alan Greenspan, the f o r m e r C h a i r m a n of t h e Federal Reserve, has voiced the viewpoint that since oil expenditure is such a small percentage of the overall economy, increased oil prices will have little effect on it, a n d he is right, to a point: oil prices will have to double a few more times before enough consumers are priced o u t of the market to cause serious economic damage. But even if this point is never reached, we should still be concerned about lower overall quantities of oil, regardless of the price, because, in an economy t h a t runs on oil, these would result in less economic activity. H o w is a smaller national economy going to be able to s u p p o r t a bigger national debt? H e r e is an idea: print some money. T h e new Fed chairman, M r . Bernanke, seems to b e following my advice, b u t instead of cranking u p the printing presses, he secretly creates huge pools of dollars and directly injects t h e m into t h e financial markets, to provide liquidity a n d to artificially p r o p u p equity values. This strategy is not working, a n d the dollar is setting some new all-time low records against other currencies. Perhaps the difficulty in reconciling oneself to t h e possibility of a worthless U S dollar stems f r o m history a n d culture, not economics. Unlike the Russians or the G e r m a n s , whose historical m e m o r y includes one or more episodes of hyperinflation, it is h a r d for Americans to imagine living in a time w h e n their paper m o n e y is n o t w o r t h its weight in toilet paper. But such conditions have been k n o w n to occur. Savings boil off into the ether. People w h o still receive paychecks or retirement checks cash t h e m immediately, and d o their best to buy the things they need to survive as quickly as they can, before t h e prices go u p again.

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B e y o n d the mere indignity o f h a v i n g to rush a r o u n d w i t h b u n dles o f w o r t h l e s s paper, national b a n k r u p t c y brings m o r e serious effects. O n e is t h a t a large s e g m e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n — pensioners a n d others o n fixed i n c o m e s — are left penniless. A n o t h e r is that i m p o r t s g r o w scarce. In the case o f the U n i t e d States, w h i c h i m p o r t s over h a l f o f its e n e r g y a n d a large p r o p o r t i o n o f its c o n s u m e r g o o d s , this will m e a n gasoline shortages, b l a c k o u t s a n d e m p t y shelves in stores. T h e s e are a c c o m p a n i e d b y a credit c r u n c h , w h i c h m a k e s it impossible to finance n e w projects. T h e c o m b i n e d effect o f these d i s r u p t i o n s causes business activity to slow to a crawl a n d personal i n c o m e s to p l u m m e t , driving d o w n g o v e r n m e n t revenues, in t u r n causing g o v e r n m e n t services to b e curtailed. For m o s t p e o p l e in the U S , rich or poor, life w i t h o u t m o n e y is u n t h i n k a b l e . T h e y m a y w a n t to give this p r o b l e m s o m e t h o u g h t , a h e a d o f time. C O L L A P S E OF L E G I T I M A C Y For each o f the t w o s u p e r p o w e r s , their sense o f identity has been firmly r o o t e d in their singular i d e o l o g y — either socialism or capitalism. It is their e x t r e m e adherence to o n e or the o t h e r that h a s d o o m e d their societies, a n d economies, in the l o n g r u n . A l l o f the m o r e successful d e v e l o p e d nations are b o t h socialist a n d capitalist to different degrees, because b y this p o i n t in t i m e it is very well u n d e r s t o o d that i d e o l o g y has its limits. T h e profit m o t i v e h a s to b e t e m p e r e d s o m e h o w to serve the needs o f society at large i f that society as a w h o l e is to succeed, a n d n o t j u s t the m i n o r i t y that controls t h e capital. L i k e w i s e , relinquishing all control o f the e c o n o m y to p o n d e r o u s g o v e r n m e n t bureaucracies is unlikely to p r o d u c e a rosy e c o n o m i c scenario. In the healthier democracies, a b r o a d p o litical s p e c t r u m stands in t h e w a y o f profiteering w i t h i n the public sector in areas s u c h as e d u c a t i o n or medicine, as well as t h w a r t i n g a t t e m p t s t o over-regulate industry. T h u s , t h e purely capitalist or t h e purely socialist c o u n t r y is like a stroke patient w h o denies t h e existence o f her right or left h a n d . T h e fact that t h e ideological distinction is artificial w a s first s p o t t e d

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b y A l b e r t C a m u s , w h o p o i n t e d o u t that b o t h W e s t e r n industrialism a n d its c o m m u n i s t version achieve similar results t h r o u g h similar m e a n s — industrialization a n d specialization o f labor. In the 1950s, in Defence

de L'Homme

Revoke,

C a m u s accurately p r e d i c t e d that i f

the c o m m u n i s t e x p e r i m e n t were to fail, this w o u l d b e m i s u n d e r s t o o d as an ideological victory b y the W e s t . C a m u s also indicated a specific failure o f b o t h systems: their inability to provide creative, m e a n i n g f u l w o r k . W e see this failure in the very h i g h rates o f depression. W e a t t e m p t to define depression as a psychological ailment, b u t it is a s y m p t o m o f a cultural failure: the inability to m a k e life m e a n i n g f u l or enjoyable. D e p r e s s i o n in the face o f depressing circumstances is a s y m p t o m o f u n c o n s c i o u s rebellion. A l t h o u g h t h e rebellious can a n d are m e d i c a t e d into submission, this d o e s n o t address the u n d e r l y i n g p r o b l e m . T o b e fair, the U n i t e d S t a t e s is far m o r e socialist t h a n the S o v i e t U n i o n w a s capitalist. T h e d e a d h a n d o f S o v i e t central planners p u t a curse o n j u s t a b o u t every t y p e o f entrepreneurial endeavor, f r o m agriculture to f a s h i o n accessories. E x c e p t i o n s were m a d e for certain national c h a m p i o n s — technological concerns that p r o d u c e d w e a p o n s or aircraft or o t h e r t e c h n o l o g y p r o d u c t s . C u l t u r a l activities w e r e less v i c t i m i z e d b y central p l a n n i n g t h a n by ideological control, b u t in areas w h e r e i d e o l o g y a n d p l a n n i n g did n o t m a t t e r the c o u n t r y d i d quite well. T h e U n i t e d States features m a n y aspects o f socialism —

many

m o r e t h a n it is w i l l i n g to a d m i t to. For instance, there is a great deal o f e m p t y talk a b o u t private retirement, b u t it turns o u t that m o s t retirees are critically d e p e n d e n t o n S o c i a l Security, a n d w o u l d starve w i t h o u t it. L i k e w i s e , M e d i c a r e provides the services n e e d e d to keep the elderly alive longer; w i t h o u t it, life e x p e c t a n c y w o u l d p l u m m e t , j u s t like it d i d in R u s s i a after t h e gradual disappearance o f socialized m e d i c i n e f o l l o w i n g the S o v i e t collapse. T h e g o v e r n m e n t also pays for m o s t o f the transportation infrastructure (neglecting railroads, for historical reasons), a n d heavily subsidizes industrial agriculture. N o m o d e r n industrial e c o n o m y can survive w i t h o u t direct g o v e r n m e n t investment in i n d u s t r y and the U n i t e d States is no

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exception. Because o f ideological constraints, the U n i t e d S t a t e s g o v e r n m e n t c a n n o t d o this o p e n l y a n d effectively; it m u s t instead s u p p o r t its industrial base via t h e e v e r - e x p a n d i n g defense b u d g e t . T h i s is very inefficient, since the p r o d u c t s in w h i c h this investment results are largely useless and, w h e n used, destroy w e a l t h rather t h a n create it. In the U n i t e d States, there is also a fair a m o u n t o f m e l d i n g b e t w e e n g o v e r n m e n t a n d private structures, especially in the area o f medicine. S i n c e t h e m e l d i n g c a n n o t b e overt, it is effected b y m e a n s o f an institutional device k n o w n as the "revolving door," w h i c h a h l o w s specialists to circulate b e t w e e n the private a n d the public sector, t a k i n g their projects w i t h t h e m . T h u s it turns o u t that, over time, t h o s e w h o regulate n e w d r u g s also w o r k for the c o m p a n i e s that profit f r o m t h e m . T h i s s c h e m e is far m o r e susceptible to corr u p t i o n than o u t r i g h t g o v e r n m e n t m a n a g e m e n t o f business, b u t far m o r e conducive to extracting a profit, b o t h f r o m g o v e r n m e n t b u d gets a n d f r o m t h e p o p u l a t i o n . H a v i n g an i d e o l o g y is all well a n d g o o d , b u t it actually has to w o r k in t e r m s o f p r o v i d i n g for a satisfactory life for m u c h o f the p o p u l a t i o n . T h e S o v i e t m o d e l failed w h e n it b e c a m e o b v i o u s that it simply w a s n o t k e e p i n g up: the average w o r k e r in a W e s t e r n nation fared m u c h better than the average w o r k e r in the w o r k e r s paradise t h a t c o m m u n i s m w a s c o m m i t t e d to p r o d u c i n g . T h e A m e r i c a n m o d e l o f s u p p o s e d l y u n a d u l t e r a t e d capitalism is p r o d u c i n g steadily s i n k i n g f o r t u n e s for the vast majority, b u t is p r o p p e d u p b y the fact that it allows a small m i n o r i t y to b e c o m e fabulously rich, c o u p l e d w i t h t h e n o t i o n that y o u (or any r a n d o m p e r s o n ) c o u l d s o m e h o w m i r a c u l o u s l y b e c o m e o n e o f t h e m . T h e r e is also a pathological

fiction

k n o w n as the " A m e r i c a n Dream," w h i c h is aggressively p r o m o t e d b y the m e d i a a n d finds m o s t o f its v i c t i m s a m o n g t h e w o r k i n g class. It consists o f the n o t i o n t h a t diligent w o r k a n d playing b y the rules will m a k e y o u successful. M a s q u e r a d i n g as h o p e , it gains its effectiveness f r o m a perversion o f pride, a p s y c h o l o g i c a l trick p e o p l e c h o o s e to play o n themselves to obscure their powerlessness. T h e y can sense t h a t t h e y are oppressed, a n d they can see that rebelling against this

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o p p r e s s i o n w o u l d b e futile, a n d so their last p r i d e f u l stand is to pret e n d that their failures are o f their o w n m a k i n g , even if they have b e e n m o s t conveniently arranged for t h e m b y their oppressors. B o t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a n d the U n i t e d S t a t e s d e v o t e d a great deal o f fanfare to p u b l i c i z i n g their d e m o c r a t i c institutions —

much

m o r e than these institutions deserved. Far m o r e d e m o c r a t i c c o u n tries m a k e far less noise a b o u t their d e m o c r a t i c institutions — they simply take t h e m for granted because they w o r k . T h e S o v i e t election system w a s a system o f coerced consent: the C o m m u n i s t p a r t y selected candidates a n d the voters w e r e c o m p e l l e d to either vote for t h e m , b y d e p o s i t i n g an u n m a r k e d ballot in an urn, or to vote against t h e m , by crossing o u t the ballot u n d e r the w a t c h f u l eyes o f election officials. N e e d l e s s to say, m o s t candidates sailed into office w i t h astronomically high p o l l n u m b e r s . T h e A m e r i c a n election system is o n e o f o p t i o n a l false choice: the o n e uniquely m e a n i n g f u l choice that is perennially missing is "none o f the above." T h e S o v i e t U n i o n h a d a single, entrenched, systemically c o r r u p t political party, w h i c h held a m o n o p o l y o n p o w e r . T h e U S has t w o e n t r e n c h e d , systemically c o r r u p t political parties, w h o s e positions are o f t e n indistinguishable a n d w h i c h together h o l d a m o n o p o l y o n p o w e r . In either case, there is, or was, a single g o v e r n i n g elite, b u t in the U n i t e d S t a t e s it o r g a n i z e s itself into o p p o s i n g t e a m s to m a k e its stranglehold o n p o w e r seem m o r e sportsmanlike. It is certainly m o r e sporting to have t w o capitalist parties g o at each o t h e r than j u s t having the o n e c o m m u n i s t p a r t y to vote for. T h e t h i n g s they fight over in public are generally s y m b o l i c little tokens o f social policy, chosen for ease o f public p o s t u r i n g . T h e C o m m u n i s t p a r t y o f f e r e d j u s t one bitter pill. T h e t w o capitalist parties offer a choice o f t w o placebos. T h e latest innovation is the p h o t o finish election, w h e r e each party p r e - p u r c h a s e s exactly 50 percent o f t h e vote t h r o u g h largely symmetrical allocation o f c a m p a i g n resources a n d the result is pulled o u t o f statistical noise, like a rabbit o u t o f a hat. It is a tribute to the intelligence o f the A m e r i c a n p e o p l e that so f e w o f t h e m b o t h e r to vote. T h e S o v i e t version o f d e m o c r a c y w a s clearly stillborn w h i l e the A m e r i c a n version is s u p p o s e d l y still alive in s o m e sense, b u t it is little

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m o r e t h a n w i n d o w - d r e s s i n g for the real business o f politics, w h i c h h a p p e n s b e h i n d closed d o o r s a n d mainly involves the exchange o f vast s u m s o f money. T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s still w o r k s w i t h an early p r o t o t y p e version o f d e m o c r a c y — D e m o c r a c y i.o B e t a —

which

c o u l d have evolved into a m o d e r n representative d e m o c r a c y given the chance, b u t n o w seems to b e d e v o l v i n g into a monarchy. T h e r e is the B u s h dynasty, a n d next w e m i g h t have the C l i n t o n dynasty. T h e existence o f t w o sparring royal families can b e u s e d to obscure the fact that t h e y are b o t h proxies for largely the same g r o u p o f people. B o t h the S o v i e t U n i o n a n d the U n i t e d States w e r e quite aggressive in spreading their i d e o l o g y a n d their system o f governm e n t a r o u n d the w o r l d . T h e S o v i e t U n i o n e x p a n d e d its sphere o f influence over E a s t e r n E u r o p e as a side effect o f repelling G e r m a n aggression. In other parts o f the w o r l d , it l o o k e d for openings, providing s u p p o r t w h e r e v e r p e o p l e revolted against colonial regimes a n d W e s t e r n exploitation. It w a s a p o o r bargain for their clients, entered into o u t o f ignorance or desperation, that traded e c o n o m i c exploitation for political oppression. T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s generally c o u l d n o t d r a w o n public s u p p o r t in e x p a n d i n g its sphere o f influence a n d relied o n various o t h e r techniques, such as political assassinations (as in Iran, Iraq a n d C h i l e ) , w h i c h w e r e o f t e n carried o u t t h r o u g h a proxy. O u t r i g h t invasion w a s tried o n a f e w occasions, w i t h very m i x e d success. B u t a n o t h e r technique, w h i c h w e n t u n d e r t h e g u i s e o f p r o m o t i n g e c o n o m i c dev e l o p m e n t , w o r k e d quite well for a time. H e r e , a country's natural resources were d e v e l o p e d a n d exploited b y p r o v i d i n g d e v e l o p m e n t assistance. T h e p r o c e e d s o f such d e v e l o p m e n t w e r e usually expatriated a n d d e p o s i t e d in W e s t e r n b a n k s rather t h a n reinvested w i t h i n the country. T h i s assistance t o o k the f o r m o f loans, w h i c h w e r e partly e m b e z z l e d b y the country's p r o - W e s t e r n elites, w i t h the rem a i n d e r u s e d to pay A m e r i c a n c o m p a n i e s to develop the resources. T h e c o u n t r y itself w a s saddled w i t h the costs o f d e b t r e p a y m e n t . T h e loans w e r e usually overly generous, m a k i n g the j o b lucrative for A m e r i c a n companies, w h i l e also m a k i n g sure that t h e c o u n t r y w o u l d remain in d e b t forever. I f it b e c a m e unable to service its debt,

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the International M o n e t a r y F u n d c a m e in and i m p o s e d austerity c o n d i t i o n s . C o u n t r i e s that m a n a g e d to escape the stranglehold o f the I M F a n d the W o r l d B a n k generally d i d better t h a n t h o s e that didn't. In recent years, the U n i t e d S t a t e s has also a t t e m p t e d to stagem a n a g e d e m o c r a t i c revolutions in various u n f o r t u n a t e countries that w e r e f o r m e r l y p a r t o f the S o v i e t sphere o f influence. T h e s e w e r e t h e w o r k o f the C o l o r R e v o l u t i o n S y n d i c a t e . T h e y w e r e wello r g a n i z e d , foreign-financed events that involved mass p r o d u c t i o n a n d s h i p p i n g in o f flags a n d t-shirts, p r o m o t i o n via international mass media, c o o r d i n a t e d political pressure f r o m W e s t e r n governm e n t s a n d even catering services for the d e m o n s t r a t o r s , w h o were mostly y o u n g , b o r e d a n d d i d n o t n e e d m u c h o f an excuse to g o a n d d e m o n s t r a t e . T h e y d e m o n s t r a t e d for f r e e d o m a n d d e m o c r a c y a n d w h i l e the f r e e d o m in q u e s t i o n w a s mainly i n t e n d e d for foreign corp o r a t i o n s a n d d e m o c r a c y w a s to s t a n d for m o n e y politics a n d stagem a n a g e d elections, such subtleties w e r e lost o n their simple m i n d s . T h e trial r u n w a s c o n d u c t e d in S e r b i a in 2000. T h e R o s e R e v o lution in l o n g - s u f f e r i n g G e o r g i a w a s likewise a success, a n d involved s w i t c h i n g an o l d p r o - W e s t e r n stooge, S h e v a r d n a d z e , for a y o u n g e r one, Saakashvili, to secure Georgia's role as a U S - d o m i n a t e d " P i p e lineistan." B u t there the success streak e n d e d . T h e O r a n g e R e v o l u t i o n in the U k r a i n e e n d e d in the travesty o f a p e r m a n e n t l y d y s f u n c t i o n a l g o v e r n m e n t . T h e T u l i p R e v o l u t i o n in K y r g y z s t a n resulted in a n e w g o v e r n m e n t that is quite closely aligned w i t h M o s c o w . T h e C e d a r R e v o l u t i o n in L e b a n o n resulted in a H e z b o l l a h takeover a n d an e n s u i n g Israeli invasion. T h e halfheartedly a t t e m p t e d n o n - c o l o r e d revolution in Belarus e n d e d in a y a w n a n d a w h i m p e r . T h e C o l o r R e v o l u t i o n S y n d i c a t e seems spent for now, h a v i n g achieved very little, b u t there is a n e w effort to generate m e d i a noise for internal c o n s u m p t i o n , to p e r p e t u a t e the fiction that s o m e t h i n g , s o m e w h e r e , is g o i n g America's way. A s an example, take the W e s t e r n , a n d particularly A m e r i c a n , press coverage d e v o t e d to t h e A p r i l 2007 a n t i - g o v e r n m e n t d e m o n s t r a t i o n s in M o s c o w a n d S t . Petersburg, w i t h the f o r m e r chess master G a r y K a s p a r o v as a cheerleader. N o -

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b o d y in the W e s t e r n press b o t h e r e d to m e n t i o n that K a s p a r o v is c o n n e c t e d w i t h the U S neoconservative m o v e m e n t , or that t h e d e m o n s t r a t o r s w e r e a ragtag assemblage o f nationalists, d i e - h a r d Perestroika

C o m m u n i s t s a n d students, m a n y o f w h o m w e r e p a i d to

s h o w up. A n y R u s s i a n w i t h t h e slightest bit o f political sense can tell that K a s p a r o v d o e s n o t have Russia's best interests in m i n d . B u t this is irrelevant: his g a m b i t is strictly f o r foreign c o n s u m p t i o n . T h i s , a n d o t h e r similarly delusional efforts to rekindle the C o l d W a r , signal t h e desperation felt b y the A m e r i c a n propagandists. W i t h Iraq a r e s o u n d i n g defeat, w i t h t h e w i d e r W a r o n T e r r o r only succeeding in d o u b l i n g the n u m b e r o f terrorist attacks, and w i t h a w a r against Iran u n w i n n a b l e even as a b o a r d g a m e played b y retired generals, the U S desperately needs an e n e m y to j u s t i f y h a v i n g a military t h a t c a n n o t w i n . T h i s e n e m y m u s t b e safe to rail against, b u t obviously t o o p o w e r f u l to attack directly, leaving a p r o u d a n d p u r p o s e f u l paralysis as the o n l y possible choice o f action. T h e fact t h a t R u s s i a remains largely indifferent to these hostile overtures m a k e s this an i n n o c u o u s b u t h u m i l i a t i n g farce. If, to use P r e s i d e n t Bush's expression " W e ' r e n o t w i n n i n g ; we're n o t losing," then w e w o u l d at least h o p e to b e exceptionally a n n o y i n g . B u t w h a t if o u r s u p p o s e d e n e m i e s c a n n o t even b e p r o v o k e d to the p o i n t o f a n n o y ance? W h e r e f o r e then, O m i g h t y s u p e r p o w e r ?

C

H

A P T E

U

3

THE COLLAPSE GDP n C h a p t e r 2 , 1 have s h o w n h o w the t w o s u p e r p o w e r s , the extant U n i t e d States a n d t h e d e f u n c t S o v i e t U n i o n , w e r e n o t t o o dissimilar to disallow a f r u i t f u l c o m p a r i s o n o f the t w o . T h e elements that caused t h e latter to collapse, economically a n d politically, appear quite likely to b r i n g d o w n the f o r m e r at s o m e unspecified t i m e (estim a t e s vary). T h e r e are those w h o w o u l d take this to m e a n that b o t h s u p e r p o w e r s are richly deserving o f i g n o m i n y for the viciousness o f their m e t h o d s , o f ridicule for their fruitlessness a n d o f disdain for the h y p o c r i s y o f the ideologies t h e y respectively p r o f f e r e d in defense o f these m e t h o d s . T h o s e w h o w i s h to feast at this b a n q u e t o f negative e m o t i o n m i g h t find that the U S S R no longer l o o k s appetizing, w h i l e the U S A is still very m u c h o n the m e n u . W e , however, have s o m e t h i n g m o r e i m p o r t a n t to discuss: W h e r e is y o u r meal ticket really g o i n g to c o m e f r o m ? A r e y o u still h o p i n g that it will b e issued b y a s u p e r p o w e r ? I f so, w h a t is y o u r b a c k - u p plan? A s u p e r p o w e r ( w h i c h e v e r o n e y o u h a p p e n to prefer) in s o m e w a y s resembles a n o r m a l country, in that it provides all the essential life s u p p o r t services to the p e o p l e w h o inhabit its d o m a i n . L i k e a supernova that briefly outshines all o t h e r stars, a superpower's social services can b e quite lavish, for a time. W h e t h e r directly or indirectly, it can p r o v i d e f o o d a n d shelter, medical care, the m e a n s for getting a r o u n d , e d u c a t i o n for one's children, s u p p o r t in old age a n d so o n . I f any o f these is w i t h d r a w n (as can h a p p e n swiftly, as o u r

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supernova collapses into a black hole or a n e u t r o n star),

a great m a n y p e o p l e are adversely affected; s o m e o f t h e m even die. It is therefore i m p o r t a n t to f o c u s o n these k e y services, a n d see h o w they fare in an e c o n o m i c collapse a n d the upheaval a n d paralysis that f o l l o w s it. W h i l e the S o v i e t U n i o n p r o v i d e d m o s t o f these k e y services u s i n g t h e public sector, t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f the U n i t e d States is critically d e p e n d e n t o n t h e private sector for most, if n o t for all o f t h e m . W e will find that this a r r a n g e m e n t m a y p r o v i d e a higher standard o f living w h i l e the e c o n o m y is still f u n c t i o n i n g , b u t that it is far f r o m o p t i m a l for survival once it shuts d o w n .

COLLAPSES IN GENERAL In C h a p t e r i, I have described w h a t I have o b s e r v e d . I don't see w h y w h a t h a p p e n s to t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s h o u l d b e entirely dissimilar, at least in general terms. T h e specifics are different a n d w e will get to t h e m in a m o m e n t . W e s h o u l d certainly e x p e c t shortages o f fuel, f o o d , m e d i c i n e a n d countless c o n s u m e r items, outages o f electricity, gas and water, b r e a k d o w n s in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems a n d other infrastructure, hyperinflation, w i d e s p r e a d s h u t d o w n s a n d mass layoffs, a l o n g w i t h a lot o f despair, c o n f u s i o n , violence a n d lawlessness. W e definitely s h o u l d n o t e x p e c t any g r a n d rescue plans, innovative t e c h n o l o g y p r o g r a m s , or miracles o f social cohesion. W e s h o u l d e x p e c t the political establishment to remain intact, at least initially, a n d to a t t e m p t to k e e p u p appearances, w h i l e sufferi n g progressive paralysis d u e to its inability to s p e n d m o n e y in the m a n n e r to w h i c h it has b e c o m e a c c u s t o m e d . A u t h o r i t i e s at every level will n o longer c o m m a n d respect. L a w e n f o r c e m e n t will be o v e r w h e l m e d , replaced in p a r t b y private security a n d hastily organ i z e d local self-defense units. M a n y laws will b e universally ignored. W e s h o u l d also e x p e c t the m a i n t e n a n c e o f every t y p e o f infrastructure, b o t h public a n d private, f r o m roads a n d bridges to water a n d sewage, f r o m public utilities to transportation systems, to b e either rationed or f o r e g o n e altogether, causing m a n y disasters, large a n d small. M u n i c i p a l services, such as garbage removal, will be either curtailed or halted altogether. Fuel deliveries to r e m o t e locations

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will no longer occur, a n d places that are n o t survivable w i t h o u t h e a t or air c o n d i t i o n i n g will b e c o m e uninhabitable a n d p r o d u c e a flood o f internal refugees. W e s h o u l d definitely n o t expect any g r a n d n e w mitigation projects, because u n d e r such c o n d i t i o n s no l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g is possible. T h e h o r i z o n for p l a n n i n g activities will b e the same w e e k , i f n o t the same day, a n d large n e w projects will n o t even b e considered. T h e m i n d - b e n d i n g difficulties o f securing f u n d i n g in a hyperinflationary era, o f p r o c u r i n g supplies in a t i m e o f shortages a n d w i d e s p r e a d looting a n d hoarding, a n d assorted logistical nightmares d u e to the b r e a k d o w n o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system, will m a k e any a t t e m p t e d big n e w projects m o r e likely to t u r n o u t like the recent Iraqi reconstruction p r o j e c t than like the M a r s h a l l P l a n . T h u s , all successful adaptations to the n e w circumstances will have to b e m a d e at the local level, a n d will have to rely o n existing infrastructure, inventory and locally available talents a n d skills. W h e n faced w i t h s u c h d e v e l o p m e n t s , s o m e p e o p l e are q u i c k to realize w h a t they have to d o to survive a n d start d o i n g these things, generally w i t h o u t p e r m i s s i o n . A sort o f e c o n o m y emerges, c o m pletely informal, a n d o f t e n semi-criminal. It revolves a r o u n d liquidating and recycling the remains o f the old economy. It is b a s e d o n direct access to resources and the threat o f force, rather than o w n e r ship or legal authority. P e o p l e w h o have a p r o b l e m w i t h this w a y o f d o i n g business quickly find themselves o u t o f the g a m e . W i t h the official e c o n o m y at a standstill, the old capital, consisting o f stocks, b o n d s a n d cash, quickly b e c o m e s w o r t h l e s s . M u c h o f the capital e q u i p m e n t , such as t r u c k a n d airplane fleets, w h i c h are inoperable a n d u n m a i n t a i n a b l e w i t h o u t cheap a n d plentiful energy, b e c o m e s t r a n d e d assets, w o r t h their w e i g h t in scrap metal. S o m e scientific a n d industrial e q u i p m e n t m a y b e e x p o r t e d , along w i t h art objects a n d antiques, in a process k n o w n as asset stripping. O n the o t h e r h a n d , p e r s o n a l c o n n e c t i o n s , favors a n d physical access to needed supplies p r o v e to b e o f abiding value. W i t h the n o m i n a l , official g o v e r n m e n t powerless to control the situation, or even to influence t h e course o f events, n e w p o w e r

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structures arise. E l e m e n t s o f o r g a n i z e d crime, urban gangs, form e r military, military contractors a n d freelancers and f o r m e r law e n f o r c e m e n t , a m a l g a m a t e to various extents, in w h a t is sure to b e a very messy, b l o o d y process. W h e r e these elements b e c o m e separated b y racial or ethnic divides, civil conflicts m a y erupt, w h i c h , if left u n c h e c k e d , m a y d e s c e n d into ethnic cleansing a n d genocide. In m a n y places, p r o v i d e d one's life is n o t i m m e d i a t e l y threatened b y lack o f f o o d , w a t e r or shelter, or by violence, life simply slows to a crawl. T h e rush h o u r traffic is g o n e a n d multi-lane h i g h w a y s that w e r e previously p a c k e d w i t h cars are reclaimed for other, i m p r o v i s e d uses, such as trailer parks, o p e n air m a r k e t s a n d shantyt o w n s . O n a previously b u s y t h o r o u g h f a r e , a single s c h o o l b u s m i g h t roll t h r o u g h t w o or three t i m e s a day, slowly p i c k i n g its w a y b e t w e e n p o t h o l e s o n the one o p e n lane, t r a n s p o r t i n g adults rather than children, w i t h the rest o f the traffic m a d e u p o f a steady trickle o f bicycles and pedestrians. For m o s t people, the w o r l d at large will once again b e c o m e relegated to t h e realm o f storytelling and

fiction,

w h i l e t h e real w o r l d shrinks d o w n to the p a t c h o f g r o u n d they can cover o n f o o t a n d the p e o p l e they e n c o u n t e r along the way. T h e s e are the generalities. N o w let's l o o k at s o m e specifics. HOUSING O n e i m p o r t a n t element o f collapse preparedness is m a k i n g sure that y o u d o n o t need a f u n c t i o n i n g e c o n o m y to k e e p a r o o f over y o u r h e a d . In t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , all h o u s i n g b e l o n g e d to the governm e n t , w h i c h m a d e it available directly to the people. S i n c e all h o u s ing w a s also built by the g o v e r n m e n t , it w a s only built in places that t h e g o v e r n m e n t c o u l d service using public t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . A f t e r the collapse, a l m o s t everyone m a n a g e d to k e e p their place. In the S o v i e t U n i o n , n o b o d y o w n e d their place o f residence. T h i s m e a n t that the e c o n o m y c o u l d collapse w i t h o u t causing h o m e lessness: j u s t a b o u t everyone w e n t o n living in the same place as b e fore. T h e r e existed no m e c h a n i s m to parallel the A m e r i c a n practice o f evictions or foreclosures. T h e right to o c c u p y one's assigned place o f residence, w h i c h w a s inscribed in one's internal passport, c o u l d

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the e c o n o m y collapsed, it w a s o f t e n the grandparents w h o t o o k to serious g a r d e n i n g a n d raised f o o d d u r i n g the s u m m e r m o n t h s . W o r k i n g - a g e p e o p l e t o o k to e x p e r i m e n t i n g in the black m a r k e t , w i t h m i x e d results: s o m e w o u l d get l u c k y a n d strike it rich, w h i l e for others it w a s lean times. W i t h e n o u g h p e o p l e living together, these accidental disparities t e n d e d to even o u t at least to s o m e extent. In the U n i t e d States, very f e w p e o p l e o w n their place o f residence free and clear, a n d even t h e y need an i n c o m e to pay real estate taxes. T h e real o w n e r s o f real estate in the U S are b a n k s a n d corporations. P e o p l e w i t h o u t an i n c o m e face homelessness. W h e n the e c o n o m y collapses, very f e w p e o p l e will continue to have an income, so homelessness w i l l b e c o m e r a m p a n t . M o s t p e o p l e in t h e U S , o n c e their savings are depleted, will in d u e course b e forced to live in their car, or in s o m e secluded stretch o f w o o d s , in a tent or u n d e r a tarp. T h e r e is currently n o m e c h a n i s m by w h i c h landlords can be m a d e n o t to evict d e a d b e a t tenants, or b a n k s b e prevailed u p o n n o t to foreclose on n o n p e r f o r m i n g loans. A w h o l e s a l e r e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f rent control seems politically unlikely. O n c e e n o u g h residential a n d c o m m e r c i a l real estate b e c o m e s vacant, a n d law e n f o r c e m e n t b e c o m e s lax or nonexistent, s q u a t t i n g b e c o m e s a real possibility. S q u a t t e r s usually find it hard to get mail and o t h e r services, b u t this is a very m i n o r issue. M o r e importantly, they can b e easily dislodged again a n d again. G i v e n the c a r - d e p e n d e n t nature o f m o s t U S suburbs, w h e r e over h a l f o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n n o w lives, w e s h o u l d e x p e c t m a n y o f t h e m to b e a b a n d o n e d , resulting in mass migrations o f h o m e l e s s p e o p l e t o w a r d the m o r e survivable city centers. B y a l u c k y accident, m u c h o f the s u b u r b a n h o u s i n g stock is actually o f very l o w intrinsic value, c o n s t r u c t e d o u t o f a f e w sticks, a bit o f tar p a p e r a n d s o m e plastic a n d c a r d b o a r d sheets. T h e s e A m e r i c a n - s t y l e P o t e m k i n villages w i l l b e simple to k n o c k d o w n . W h e r e a s m o r e solidly c o n s t r u c t e d buildings m i g h t require a f e w swings w i t h a w r e c k i n g ball, the merest t o u c h f r o m a b u l l d o z e r will b e sufficient to cause these little m a r k e t bubbles to f o l d u p into a pile o f k i n d l i n g a n d d u s t w i t h barely a groan. S u b u r b i a will leave n o majestic ruins, a n d even

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a post-industrial p o p u l a t i o n o f the f u t u r e will have little trouble reclaiming it as f a r m l a n d or pasture. In the m o r e densely b u i l t - u p areas, w e can i m a g i n e that the n o w p e r m a n e n t l y e m p t y p a r k i n g garages a n d p a r k i n g lots w i l l t u r n into trailer parks and s h a n t y t o w n s , that city parks will b e d u g u p to g r o w staples such as p o t a t o e s , a n d that elevated roadways will b e lined w i t h barrels to collect rainwater ( w h i c h will r u n clear once industry and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n have b o t h largely s h u t d o w n ) . W i t h little o f the old c o m m e r c e or business c o n t i n u i n g to f u n c t i o n , m u c h o f the c o m m e r c i a l real estate, i n c l u d i n g office towers, may c o m e to b e inhabited, a l t h o u g h n o t h i n g above the tenth floor will b e o f m u c h use once t h e elevators stop running. Even the m o s t c o m m o n s e n s e a n d h u m b l e adaptations will present public officials in the U S w i t h a terrible choice: enforce p r o p e r t y laws or let p e o p l e die. T h e U S a n d the S o v i e t U n i o n were at t w o extremes o f a c o n t i n u u m b e t w e e n t h e public and the private. In the S o v i e t U n i o n , m o s t land w a s o p e n to the public. E v e n apartments were o f t e n c o m m u n a l , m e a n i n g that the b e d r o o m s w e r e private b u t the kitchen, b a t h r o o m a n d hallway w e r e c o m m o n areas. In the U S , m o s t o f the land is privately o w n e d , s o m e b y p e o p l e w h o p u t up signs threatening to s h o o t trespassers. M o s t "public places" are in fact private, m a r k e d " C u s t o m e r s O n l y " a n d " N o Loitering." W h e r e there are public parks, these are o f t e n "closed" at night, and anyone trying to s p e n d a night there is likely to b e told to "move along" by the police. T h e t e r m "loitering" d o e s n o t even translate into R u s sian. T h e closest equivalent o n e can find is s o m e t h i n g a l o n g the lines o f " h a n g i n g a r o u n d " or "wasting time" in public. T h i s is i m p o r t a n t , because o n c e n o b o d y has a j o b to g o to, the t w o r e m a i n i n g choices are to sit at h o m e or, as it were, to loiter. I f loitering is illegal, t h e n staying at h o m e b e c o m e s the only choice. I f there is n o h o m e , then b r e a k i n g the law b e c o m e s the only o p t i o n . A f t e r the collapse, R u s s i a experienced a swelling o f the ranks o f p e o p l e described by the a c r o n y m B O M Z h , w h i c h stands for "persons w i t h o u t a definite place o f residence or occupation," T h e

bom-

zhies, as they c a m e to be called, o f t e n i n h a b i t e d u n u s e d bits o f the

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urban or rural landscape where, w i t h n o b o d y to tell t h e m to "move along," they were left largely in peace. S u c h an indefinite place o f residence was often referred to as a bomzhatnik.

English badly needs

a term for that. W h e n the U S e c o n o m y collapses, one w o u l d expect e m p l o y m e n t rates and, w i t h them, residency rates, to p l u m m e t . It is hard to estimate w h a t percentage o f the U S population w o u l d , as a result, become homeless, b u t it could be quite high, perhaps bec o m i n g so c o m m o n p l a c e as to remove the stigma. A country w h e r e most o f the n e i g h b o r h o o d s are structured so as to exclude people o f inadequate means in order to preserve property values is not a pleasant place to be a b u m . T h e n again, w h e n property values start d r o p p i n g t o zero, w e may find that some o f the properties spontaneously rezone themselves into bomzhatniks,

w i t h no political will or

p o w e r anywhere to d o anything about them. I d o not mean to imply that Russian b u m s had a g o o d time o f it. B u t because m o s t Russians were able to keep their place o f residence in spite o f a collapsing economy, the percentage o f bomzbies

in the

general population never m a d e it into the double digits. T h e s e most unfortunate cases led short, brutal lives, often in an alcoholic haze, and accounted for quite a lot o f Russia's spike in post-collapse mortality. S o m e o f t h e m were refugees — Russians ethnically cleansed f r o m the newly independent, suddenly nationalistic former Soviet republics — w h o c o u l d not be easily reabsorbed into the Russian population due to Russia's chronic housing shortage.

TRANSPORTATION Soviet public transportation was more or less all there was, b u t there was plenty o f it. A typical Russian city has a subway (metro), buses, streetcars (trams) and electric buses (trolley-buses). Cities are connected to their suburbs by electric trains (elektrichki) and to other cities by long-distance passenger service, featuring a variety o f sleeping arrangements, ranging f r o m platskart

(a live geometric

experiment in efficiently packing bodies in three dimensions using multiple tiers o f folding cots) to coupe (lower population density, affording slightly more privacy using sliding doors) to the luxurious

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S V (sleeper car). A l l o f this public infrastructure w a s designed to be a l m o s t infinitely maintainable, a n d c o n t i n u e d to r u n even as the rest o f the e c o n o m y collapsed. R u s s i a n h o u s i n g is generally accessible by public transportation, w h i c h c o n t i n u e d to r u n d u r i n g the w o r s t o f times. M o s t o f the S o v i e t - e r a d e v e l o p m e n t s were centrally p l a n n e d a n d central planners d o n o t like sprawl: it is t o o difficult and expensive to service. F e w p e o p l e o w n e d cars a n d even f e w e r d e p e n d e d o n cars for getting a r o u n d . E v e n t h e w o r s t gasoline shortages resulted in only m i n o r inconveniences for m o s t people: in the springtime, they m a d e it difficult to transport seedlings f r o m t h e city to the d a c h a for planting; in the fall, they m a d e it difficult to h a u l the harvest b a c k to the city. T h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e U n i t e d States is a l m o s t entirely card e p e n d e n t , a n d relies o n markets that control oil i m p o r t , refining and distribution, as well as o n c o n t i n u o u s public investment in road c o n s t r u c t i o n and repair. T h e cars themselves require a steady stream o f i m p o r t e d parts a n d are n o t d e s i g n e d to last very long. W h e n these intricately i n t e r c o n n e c t e d systems stop f u n c t i o n i n g , m u c h o f the p o p u l a t i o n will find itself stranded. O n c e cars b e c o m e inaccessible to a significant p o r t i o n o f the p o p u l a t i o n , n o t only will this developm e n t s o u n d t h e death knell for the m y t h o f A m e r i c a n inclusiveness, b u t t h e anger a n d envy o f t h e automotively dispossessed will quickly m a k e cars an unsafe f o r m o f travel for the rest o f the p o p u l a t i o n . T h e resulting e n v i r o n m e n t is likely to run the g a m u t b e t w e e n w h a t w e see in Israel (paramilitary security, high walls a n d w a t c h t o w e r s , a n d private r o a d w a y s for the rich) a n d w h a t w e see in Iraq (endless checkpoints, roadside b o m b s and a r m e d convoys). For t h o s e o f us w h o d o n o t w i s h to live a n d die b y the automobile, the challenge is n o t j u s t o n e o f eliminating cars f r o m o u r o w n lives, b u t o f c o n s t r u c t i n g an e n v i r o n m e n t that is sufficiently inhospitable to cars to m a k e their d e m i s e a n o n - e v e n t . T h i s challenge c a n n o t b e m e t b y p r i n t i n g u p b u m p e r stickers a n d o r g a n i z i n g events to w h i c h p e o p l e can drive, effectively placing it o u t s i d e the scope o f A m e r i c a n politics. T h u s , the c o m i n g w i d e s p r e a d unavailability o f cars has placed A m e r i c a n politics o u t s i d e the scope o f reality, a n d it

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is o n l y a matter o f t i m e b e f o r e p e o p l e are f o r c e d to notice this particular inconvenient truth. A 1 Gore's prescription, presented playfully to music at the e n d o f his n o w f a m o u s film, is basically to drive carefully so as n o t to leave t o o m a n y c a r b o n f o o t p r i n t s . I believe this rather misses the p o i n t . W h a t are y o u s u p p o s e d to d o w i t h y o u r last t a n k o f gas? D r i v e o f f a cliff slowly, so as to conserve energy? W h e n it c o m e s to h o l d i n g the c o u n t r y t o g e t h e r in the p o s t p e t r o l e u m age, t h e U S has left itself very f e w viable options. W i t h o u t a concerted effort to rebuild transcontinental railroad links prior to t h e onset o f crisis conditions, once the airlines a n d the interstate h i g h w a y system b e c o m e a t h i n g o f the past, the t w o coasts will remain c o n n e c t e d b y t h e P a n a m a C a n a l only, f o r c i n g t h e m to part company. T h e r e is no evidence that such an effort is even b e i n g considered. N a v i g a b l e rivers a n d canals will o n c e again start serving a vital f u n c t i o n , d e t e r m i n i n g w h i c h p o p u l a t i o n centers remain in c o m m u n i c a t i o n w i t h t h e rest o f the world, w i t h the rest b e c o m i n g largely isolated. T h e canal system remains for the m o s t part intact, a n d b u i l d i n g barges is a l o w - t e c h p r o p o s i t i o n , achievable using h a n d tools and reclaimed materials, even in the m i d s t o f an e c o n o m i c standstill. M a n y t o w n s have partially a b a n d o n e d w a t e r f r o n t s , w h i c h have b e e n supplanted, first b y the rail-heads, t h e n b y the h i g h w a y s a n d t h e airports. T h e s e can surely b e p u t to g o o d use. T h e m o s t successful f o r m o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n b y far is the bicycle. W h i l e there is currently a bicycle for almost every p e r s o n in the U S , these bicycles b y a n d large sit still in garages a n d basements, r u s t i n g a n d g a t h e r i n g d u s t . A b o u t a t e n t h o f t h e m m i g h t b e rideable at any given time. I f large n u m b e r s o f p e o p l e a t t e m p t to start using them, the i m m e d i a t e effect will b e a shortage o f bicycle tires, w h i c h deteriorate d u e to d r y rot. E v e n if this p r o b l e m finds a solution, it will s o o n b e discovered that the vast m a j o r i t y o f the bicycles are in fact toys d e s i g n e d for sport, n o t for h a u l i n g loads or for t h e rigors o f a daily c o m m u t e , and m o s t o f t h e m will fail w i t h i n a year o f h a r d daily use. O v e r h a u l i n g t h e m requires a w i d e a s s o r t m e n t o f i m p o r t e d spare parts, w h i c h is unlikely to b e available. T h e old three-speed C o l u m bias a n d other antiques, w h i c h w e r e d e s i g n e d to carry 300 p o u n d s

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and to g o 100,000 miles b e t w e e n overhauls, will s u d d e n l y b e c o m e highly p r i z e d . M a n y other bikes will still b e used, even i f they are n o longer rideable, as p u s h - b i k e s , H o C h i M i n h - t r a i l style: they will b e w a l k e d instead o f ridden, w i t h one stick shoved d o w n the seatpost, a n o t h e r tied to the h a n d l e b a r a n d h e a v y loads slung in bags over the t o p tube. S h o p p i n g carts, released en masse f r o m the confines o f d e f u n c t s h o p p i n g areas, can b e e x p e c t e d to proliferate wildly. T h e y are already a b u n d a n t : I once c o u n t e d over a d o z e n in the course o f a short w a l k t h r o u g h the w o o d s o n the b a n k s o f the C h a r l e s River j u s t w e s t o f B o s t o n , rusting peacefully o n the riverbank. S h o p p i n g carts are ugly, noisy a n d unreliable, b u t they are also an o b v i o u s fallback for a p o p u l a t i o n that has lost all access to transportation: they are plentiful, their operation a n d m a i n t e n a n c e s h o u l d n o t p r e s e n t m u c h o f a learning curve to the general p o p u l a t i o n and everyone w h o w a n t s o n e seems to b e able t o get one.

EMPLOYMENT E c o n o m i c collapse affects public sector e m p l o y m e n t a l m o s t as m u c h as private sector e m p l o y m e n t —

eventually. Because g o v e r n m e n t

bureaucracies t e n d to b e slow to act, t h e y collapse m o r e slowly. A l s o , because s t a t e - o w n e d enterprises t e n d to b e inefficient a n d stockpile inventory, there is p l e n t y o f it left over for the employees to take h o m e a n d use in barter. M o s t S o v i e t e m p l o y m e n t w a s in the public sector a n d this gave p e o p l e s o m e t i m e t o t h i n k o f w h a t to d o next. Private enterprises tend to b e m u c h m o r e efficient at m a n y things, such as laying o f f their people, s h u t t i n g their d o o r s a n d liquidating their assets. S i n c e m o s t e m p l o y m e n t in the U n i t e d States is in the private sector, w e s h o u l d e x p e c t the transition to p e r m a n e n t u n e m p l o y m e n t to be quite a b r u p t for m o s t people. A s p o n t a n e o u s s o f t l a n d i n g is unlikely in the U S , w h e r e a large c o m p a n y can decide to shut its d o o r s b y executive decision, laying o f f p e r s o n n e l a n d a u c t i o n i n g o f f capital e q u i p m e n t a n d inventory. S i n c e in m a n y cases the e q u i p m e n t is leased a n d the inventory is j u s t - i n - t i m e a n d therefore very thin, a business can b e m a d e to

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evaporate virtually overnight. S i n c e m a n y executives m a y decide to c u t their losses all at once, seeing the same e c o n o m i c p r o j e c t i o n s a n d interpreting t h e m similarly, t h e effect o n c o m m u n i t i e s c o u l d b e utterly devastating. T h e S o v i e t centrally p l a n n e d b e h e m o t h w a s extremely inefficient, w i t h high levels o f loss and o u t r i g h t w a s t e at every level. T h e distribution system w a s so inflexible that enterprises h o a r d e d inventory. It excelled at p r o d u c i n g capital g o o d s , b u t w h e n it c a m e to m a n u f a c t u r i n g c o n s u m e r g o o d s , w h i c h require m u c h m o r e

flexibil-

ity t h a n a centrally p l a n n e d system can provide, it failed. It also failed miserably at p r o d u c i n g f o o d a n d w a s forced to resort to i m p o r t i n g m a n y basic f o o d s t u f f s . It o p e r a t e d a h u g e military a n d political e m pire but, paradoxically, failed to derive any e c o n o m i c benefit f r o m it, r u n n i n g the entire enterprise at a net loss. A l s o paradoxically, these very failings a n d inefficiencies m a d e for a s o f t landing. B e c a u s e there w a s no m e c h a n i s m b y w h i c h state enterprises c o u l d g o b a n k r u p t , t h e y o f t e n c o n t i n u e d to operate for a t i m e at s o m e l o w level, h o l d i n g b a c k salaries o r scaling b a c k p r o d u c tion. T h i s lessened the n u m b e r o f instant mass layoffs or o u t r i g h t closings, b u t w h e r e these d i d occur, t h e y w e r e a c c o m p a n i e d b y very h i g h m o r t a l i t y rates a m o n g m e n b e t w e e n t h e ages o f 45 a n d 55, w h o turn o u t to b e psychologically t h e m o s t vulnerable to s u d d e n loss o f career, a n d w h o either d r a n k themselves to death or c o m m i t t e d suicide. P e o p l e c o u l d s o m e t i m e s use their old, s e m i - d e f u n c t place o f e m p l o y m e n t as a b a s e o f o p e r a t i o n s o f sorts, f r o m w h i c h to r u n t h e k i n d o f black m a r k e t business that a l l o w e d m a n y o f t h e m to gradually transition to private enterprise. T h e inefficient distribut i o n system, a n d the h o a r d i n g to w h i c h it gave rise, resulted in very high levels o f inventory, w h i c h c o u l d b e bartered. S o m e enterprises c o n t i n u e d to operate in this manner, bartering their leftover invent o r y w i t h o t h e r enterprises in order to supply their employees w i t h s o m e t h i n g they c o u l d use or sell. W h a t parallels can w e draw f r o m this to e m p l o y m e n t in the post-collapse U n i t e d States? P u b l i c sector e m p l o y m e n t m a y p r o v i d e

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somewhat better chances for keeping one's j o b . For instance, it is unlikely t h a t all schools, colleges a n d universities will dismiss all of their faculty a n d staff at t h e same time. N o r will government agencies, g o v e r n m e n t - f u n d e d research labs or government contractors involved in s u p p o r t and maintenance activities. It is s o m e w h a t more likely that their salaries will n o t be enough to live on, b u t they may, for a time, be able to maintain their social niche. Properties a n d facilities m a n a g e m e n t is probably a safe bet: as long as there are properties t h a t are considered valuable, they will need to be looked after. W h e n the time comes to dismantle t h e m a n d barter off the pieces, it will help if they are still intact, and if you are the one w h o has the keys to t h e m .

<#> O n e major difference is t h a t the Soviet U n i o n was entirely selfsufficient w h e n it came to skilled labor. Both before a n d after the collapse, skilled labor was one of its m a i n exports, along w i t h oil, weapons a n d industrial machinery. N o t so with the U n i t e d States, where n o t only is most of t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g being carried out abroad, b u t a lot of service back h o m e is being provided by immigrants. This runs the g a m u t f r o m f a r m labor, landscaping and office cleaning to the professions, such as engineering a n d medicine, w i t h o u t which society a n d its infrastructure would unravel. M o s t of these people came to the U n i t e d States to enjoy t h e superior standard of living — for as long as it remains superior. M a n y of t h e m will eventually head home, leaving a gaping hole in the social fabric. I have h a d a chance to observe quite a few companies in the U S f r o m the inside a n d have spotted a certain constancy in the staffing profile. A t the top, there is a group of highly compensated senior lunch-eaters. T h e y t e n d to spend all of their time pleasing each other in various ways, big a n d small. T h e y often hold advanced degrees in disciplines such as Technical S c h m o o z i n g and Relativistic Beancounting. T h e y are obsessive on t h e subject of m o n e y a n d cultivate a p o s h country set atmosphere, even if they are j u s t one generation

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o u t of the coal mines. A s k t h e m to solve a technical problem a n d they will politely demur, often taking t h e o p p o r t u n i t y to flash their wit with a self-deprecatingjoke or two. S o m e w h a t f u r t h e r d o w n the hierarchy are the people w h o actually d o the work. T h e y t e n d to have fewer social graces a n d c o m m u nication skills, b u t they d o k n o w h o w to get t h e work done. A m o n g t h e m are f o u n d the technical innovators, w h o are o f t e n t h e company's raison d'etre. M o r e often t h a n not, the senior lunch-eaters at the top are native-born Americans and, m o r e often t h a n not, the ones lower d o w n are either visiting foreigners or immigrants. These find themselves in a variety of situations, f r o m the working visa holders w h o are often forced to choose between keeping their j o b a n d going home, to those w h o are waiting for a green card and m u s t play their other cards j u s t right, to those w h o have one, to naturalized citizens. T h e natives at the top always try to standardize t h e j o b descriptions a n d lower the pay scale of t h e immigrants at the b o t t o m , playing t h e m against each other, while trying to portray themselves as super-achieving entrepreneurial mavericks w h o can't be p i n n e d d o w n to a mere set of marketable skills. T h e opposite is often t h e case: the natives are often the c o m m o d i t y items, a n d w o u l d p e r f o r m similar f u n c t i o n s w h e t h e r their business were biotechnology or salted fish, while those w h o w o r k for t h e m may be u n i q u e specialists, doing w h a t has never been d o n e before. It is n o surprise t h a t this situation should have come about. For the last few generations, native-born Americans have preferred disciplines such as law, communications a n d business administration, while immigrants a n d foreigners t e n d e d to choose the sciences a n d engineering. All their lives the natives were told to expect prosperity w i t h o u t end, a n d so they felt safe in joining professions t h a t are mere embroidery on the fabric of an affluent society. This process became k n o w n as the "brain drain" — America's extraction of talent f r o m foreign lands, to its advantage a n d their detriment. This flow of brain p o w e r is likely to reverse direction, leaving the U S even less capable of finding ways to cope with its

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economic predicament. This may mean t h a t even in areas where there will be ample scope for innovation a n d development, such as restoration of rail service, or renewable energy, America may find itself w i t h o u t the necessary talent to make it h a p p e n . FAMILIES

W o m e n received the right to education a n d a career in Russia earlier t h a n in the U S , b u t Russian a n d American families are in similarly sad shape, with high divorce rates a n d many out-of-wedlock births. T h e chronic shortage of h o u s i n g did force m a n y families to stick it out, with mixed results. It often resulted in three generations living together u n d e r one roof. This didn't make t h e m happy, b u t at least they were used to each other. T h e usual expectation was t h a t they w o u l d stick it out together, come w h a t may. A n o t h e r key difference between Russia a n d t h e U S is t h a t Russians, like m o s t people a r o u n d the world, generally spend their entire lives living in one place, whereas Americans move a r o u n d constantly. N o t only d o most Russians live close to family, b u t they generally know, or at least recognize, most of t h e other people w h o s u r r o u n d t h e m . W h e n the economy collapses, everyone has to c o n f r o n t an unfamiliar situation. T h e Russians, at least, did n o t have to c o n f r o n t it in the company of complete strangers. O n the other h a n d , Americans are far more likely t h a n Russians to help out strangers, at least when they have something to spare. In the U n i t e d States, families t e n d to be atomized, spread out over several states. T h e y sometimes have trouble tolerating each other w h e n they come together for Thanksgiving or C h r i s t m a s , even during the best of times. They might find it difficult to get along in b a d times. T h e r e is already too m u c h loneliness in this country, a n d I d o u b t that economic collapse will cure it. W h e n confronting hardship, people usually fall back on their families for s u p p o r t . Since for m a n y people in the U S this option has been foreclosed by their atomized living arrangement, we need to look to other possibilities. M o s t surprisingly, Americans make better c o m m u n i s t s t h a n Russians ever did, or cared to try. T h e y excel at

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c o m m u n a l living, with plenty of good, stable r o o m m a t e situations, which compensate for their weak, alienated or nonexistent families. These r o o m m a t e situations can be used as a template a n d scaled u p to village-sized self-organized communities. Big households t h a t pool their resources make a lot m o r e sense in an unstable, resourcescarce environment t h a n the individualistic approach. W i t h o u t a functioning economy, a household t h a t consists of a single individual or a nuclear family ceases to be viable, a n d people are forced to live in ever larger households, f r o m r o o m m a t e situations to taking lodgers to doubling u p to forming villages. W h e r e any Russian would cringe at such an idea, because it stirs the still fresh memories of the failed Soviet experiment at collectivization and forced comm u n a l living, many Americans are adept at making fast friends a n d getting along a n d generally seem to possess an u n t a p p e d reserve of gregariousness, c o m m u n i t y spirit a n d civic-minded idealism. In the U S , cheap energy a n d the giant economic bubble it has fueled have given rise to some social arrangements t h a t are n o t destined to survive t h e onset of p e r m a n e n t energy scarcity. O n e of these is the notion t h a t a few young people will anonymously contribute a large p a r t of their income for the welfare of many old people they have never m e t or even heard of. For most of h u m a n history, parents took care of their children as their t o p m o s t priority in life. As with m a n y other species, it was their biological imperative to do so; beyond that, most of t h e m were conscious of the fact t h a t if their children did n o t survive, neither would they: their genes, their memories, their culture or anything else about t h e m would be erased by time. T h e care of children could b e e n t r u s t e d to family m e m b e r s but never to complete strangers. T h e education of children took place largely in the home, t h r o u g h storytelling, shared labor a n d rites of passage. T h e elderly, a n d especially t h e grandparents, took an active p a r t in rearing a n d educating children. It was they w h o watched a n d attended to young children t h r o u g h o u t the day a n d w h o inculcated in t h e m m u c h of the ancestral w i s d o m — the stories, m y t h s a n d practical knowledge — t h r o u g h ceaseless, tiresome repetition.

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A t the trailing edge of t h e fossil fuel age, where the lone remaining superpower now finds itself, prosperous society looks quite different. B o t h parents work increasingly dismal a n d t i m e - c o n s u m i n g jobs, mostly away f r o m home, in order to keep themselves o u t of bankruptcy. T h o s e w h o prosper most attend to their careers with far greater attention t h a n to their children, a b a n d o n i n g t h e m to the care of strangers for the better p a r t of most days. T h e grandparents live elsewhere, enjoying their golden years, the fruits of their labors encapsulated in some properties, some investments a n d a merciful central government that has promised to at least keep t h e m alive if all else fails. T h e y are living o n artificial life s u p p o r t t h a t is a b o u t to be shut off. O n c e the joy ride ends, h u m a n society will revert to n o r m , b u t m a n y will suffer a n d many lives will be cut short. T h e elderly will get a dose of their o w n toxic medicine. A d u l t children will take care of their helpless parents only inasmuch as their parents t o o k care of t h e m w h e n they were young a n d helpless. W e r e they placed in day-care, sent off to a boarding school, or encouraged to join the military? Well then, institutional care for the elderly m u s t be the perfect solution! ( A n d no use complaining; w h e n their children were three years old and complained, did they listen to them?) W e r e they m a d e to w o r k for their allowance, to learn the spirit of free enterprise at a young age? Well then, h o w d o their parents expect to earn their keep w h e n they are eighty? S h a p e u p or ship out! These words will not necessarily be said out loud; b u t they will be felt a n d lived. W h a t will make matters worse is t h a t most of the children are humans-"Lite" — deprived of the stories, m y t h s a n d trials t h a t h u m a n children have been p u t t h r o u g h for the past few million years, m i n u s a bizarre century or two — a n d so are gravely ill-equipped for life outside the artificial life s u p p o r t system. T h e y are an industrial p r o d u c t : almost f r o m birth they are placed in an entirely artificial social context, where they are evaluated, classified and shoved t h r o u g h a series of institutions, to be readied for a lifetime of service in a system whose feedstock is a c o m m o d i t y h u m a n p r o d u c t : G r a d e

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A h u m a n , marketable skills up-to-date, properly credentialed. Even if their parents a n d grandparents were intact a n d able to i m p a r t wisdom, the children h a d n o t been p r o g r a m m e d to process t h a t sort of information. All t h a t t h e people in the U S can h o p e for is t h a t strangers will be nice to t h e m . Indeed, there does seem to be a layer of basic decency a n d niceness to at least some parts of American society, which has been all b u t destroyed in Russia over the course of Soviet history. T h e r e is an altruistic impulse to help strangers a n d pride in being helpful to others. In many ways, Americans are culturally h o mogeneous. T h e biggest interpersonal barrier between t h e m is t h e fear a n d alienation fostered by their racially a n d economically segregated living conditions. T h e two m o s t i m p o r t a n t social institutions within the U S are the individual a n d the nuclear family, a n d neither is designed to survive economic collapse. MONEY

In the Soviet Union, very little could be obtained for money. It was treated as tokens rather t h a n wealth, a n d was shared a m o n g friends. M a n y things — housing a n d transportation a m o n g t h e m — were either free or almost free. Since m o n e y was not particularly useful in t h e Soviet era economy, a n d did n o t convey status or success, it was n o t particularly prized either, a n d was shared rather freely. Friends t h o u g h t n o t h i n g of helping each other o u t in times of need. It was i m p o r t a n t t h a t everyone h a d some, n o t t h a t one h a d more t h a n the others. W i t h the arrival of m a r k e t economics, this cultural trait disappeared, b u t it persisted long enough to help people survive the transition. M o s t people in the U n i t e d States cannot survive very long w i t h o u t an income. This may s o u n d curious to some people in t h e U S : H o w can anyone, anywhere survive w i t h o u t an incomer 1 Well, in post-collapse Russia, if you didn't pay rent or utilities (because no One else was paying t h e m either), a n d if you grew or gathered a bit of your o w n food, a n d you h a d some friends a n d relatives to help you out, t h e n an income was n o t a prerequisite for survival.

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T o keep evil at bay, Americans require money. In an economic collapse, there is usually hyperinflation, which wipes o u t savings. T h e r e is also widespread u n e m p l o y m e n t , which wipes o u t incomes. T h e result is a population t h a t is largely penniless. Beyond the inconveniences associated with having zero disposable income, there is a fantastic social stigma attached to being broke, although an ever-growing g r o u p of people in the U S gets along quite well without much m o n e y at all, and m a n y m o r e could d o the same. T h e list includes pensioners o n small fixed incomes, the disabled and those on public assistance. T h e r e is also a growing group of conscientious economic underachievers a n d various categories of t h e creatively underemployed, such as adult children dwelling in their parents' garages or basements. M a n y others avoid having to earn rent by house-sitting, camping or living aboard boats. But the toxic social environment makes it a sad way to live. T h e penniless are forcefully prevented f r o m enjoying their f r e e d o m f r o m economic necessity, and only the very strong-minded ones can e n d u r e with their dignity intact. It takes a great deal of skill to be penniless in the U S even with t h e economy still functioning, a n d producing plenty of surplus stuff available for the asking. O n c e it shuts down, even those skilled in the art of surviving w i t h o u t money will be at a loss, while most of t h e rest of the population will be rendered absolutely helpless. T h e c o m m o n s e n s e approach to reconciling yourself to the prospect of n o t having any m o n e y is to look for ways to survive w i t h o u t needing any. These ways m u s t be as unique, creative and discrete as the people practicing t h e m because any sufficiently popular trick for getting s o m e t h i n g for n o t h i n g is automatically rendered useless by its very popularity: other people catch on a n d start charging t h e m money. This approach also neatly solves the associated problem of losing access to products on which to spend money. But should some p r o d u c t s still be available, this approach also avoids the p r o b lem of convincing people to accept something as worthless as m o n e y in exchange for their ever more valuable p r o d u c t s . Lastly, this approach also offers a solution to crime: the best way to avoid getting

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r o b b e d is to have n o t h i n g t h a t is w o r t h stealing. However, instead of concentrating o n this c o m m o n s e n s e approach, a great m a n y people w h o are aware of t h e energy predicament a n d its implications for the U S economy prefer t o concentrate o n a high-risk approach: h o a r d ing. A great deal of discussion is devoted to t h e subject of w h a t to h o a r d a n d where to h o a r d it. S h o u l d it be gold or silver, or land or other resources? A n d the follow-on question inevitably becomes: W h a t weapons to buy to safeguard all this stuff? But there is another follow-on question, which is hardly ever asked: H o w m u c h is this stuff really going to be worth? Currently, the value of m o n e y a n d other tokens of wealth, such as gold coins, is amplified by fossil fuel energy providing a replacement for h u m a n a n d animal labor equivalent to h u n d r e d s of personal slaves for each American. O i l is a b o u t the cheapest liquid m o n e y can buy, cheaper t h a n milk, cheaper even t h a n bottled water. W h e n this fossil fuel energy is no longer available, n o personal slaves will suddenly m a terialize o u t of nowhere a n d be willing to w o r k for a few pennies a day, because these pennies, in t u r n , will buy nothing. Even assets t h a t might seem perennially useful, such as farmland, may n o t make too m u c h sense if it is your o w n two h a n d s t h a t have to m a k e it productive. W i t h o u t tractors or combines, irrigation p u m p s , fertilizers, pesticides a n d trucks to get t h e produce t o market, a big f a r m becomes j u s t a patch of fallow land. A n y t h i n g beyond a dozen acres may well become j u s t a n o t h e r stranded asset. If life w i t h o u t m o n e y is to become n o r m a l for m o s t people in the U S , t h e n it seems inevitable t h a t the flow of h u m a n i t y will become bifurcated. T h o s e w h o are m o s t helpless will find themselves o n the inside, in institutional settings such as jails, asylums a n d hastily organized camps for the internally displaced, kept alive while the institutions hold together a n d supplies last. T h o s e w h o are m o r e resourceful will find ways to remain on the outside, a n d may find themselves p u r s u e d a n d persecuted as terrorists, while the institutions hold together a n d supplies last, b u t eventually they will b e left alone as the supplies needed to continue persecuting t h e m r u n low. S o m e clever people are sure to find ways to work as conduits

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p r o d u c t s that are useable, b u t o n l y for a certain d u r a t i o n . T h e result w a s a stock o f utilitarian a n d easily repairable c o n s u m e r items that were sufficiently durable to g o o n f u n c t i o n i n g l o n g after they w e r e no longer b e i n g m a n u f a c t u r e d . In c o m p a r i s o n , w i t h t h e p r o f i t m o t i v e present and sacrosanct, the U n i t e d S t a t e s has a flourishing c o n s u m e r g o o d s sector. H o w ever, it suffers f r o m several f u n d a m e n t a l flaws. O n e o f these flaws is that m a k i n g a n e w t y p e o f long-lasting p r o d u c t n o r m a l l y spells disaster for the m a n u f a c t u r e r : o n c e e n o u g h o f the p r o d u c t has b e e n sold, the m a r k e t for it can r e m a i n saturated for decades, w i t h only a trickle o f n e w sales. M a n u f a c t u r e r s e m p l o y several tricks to escape this p r e d i c a m e n t a n d to shift as m u c h o f their p r o d u c t line as p o s sible to w h a t a m o u n t s to a rent-based revenue m o d e l . O n e standard trick is to m a k e the p r o d u c t disposable, f o r c i n g c o n s u m e r s to p a y for each use. A n o t h e r is to m a k e the p r o d u c t o u t o f materials that decay at a carefully p r e d e t e r m i n e d rate. Plastics offer excellent possibilities for this sort o f fine-tuning: t h e y d e g r a d e over time, b e c o m i n g brittle. T h i s is especially the case for items u s e d o u t o f doors, w h i c h suffer p h o t o d e g r a d a t i o n f r o m the s u n s ultraviolet rays. O n c e a plastic c o m p o n e n t breaks, it can rarely b e m e n d e d or replaced w i t h a h a n d m a d e piece a n d m u s t usually b e replaced w i t h a m a t c h i n g , m a s s - p r o d u c e d part. M a n u f a c t u r e r s also have the o p t i o n o f refusing t o sell n e w parts, instead forcing c o n s u m e r s to "upgrade" to a new, m o r e expensive m o d e l . It is o f t e n sufficient to replace j u s t o n e m e t a l part w i t h a plastic o n e to curtail the lifespan o f t h e overall p r o d u c t . For example, bicycle derailleurs n o w c o m m o n l y feature a plastic bracket, ostensibly shaving o f f an insignificant a m o u n t in weight, b u t c a p p i n g their lifespan at a b o u t ten years. T h e p e r n i c i o u s result o f this approach in times o f e c o n o m i c d i s r u p t i o n is o b v i o u s : as the flow o f p r o d u c t s is curtailed, disposable p r o d u c t s simply vanish. A f t e r an initial p e r i o d o f hoarding, t h e y b e c o m e available sporadically a n d in small quantities, b u t are n o w treated carefully a n d reused as m u c h as possible. D i s p o s a b l e cups, plates, bags, syringes, shavers a n d countless other items suddenly b e c o m e far less disposable, i m m e r s i n g everyone in a w o r l d

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o f increasingly useless, h a l f - b r o k e n p o s t - c o n s u m e r trash. A n oldf a s h i o n e d straight shaver, or a stainless steel-and-glass syringe, suddenly b e c o m e p r i z e d possessions. T h i s w o u l d b e a dramatic cultural reversal for a n a t i o n accust o m e d to w o r s h i p i n g at the altar o f the new. For decades now, the m a i n t h r u s t o f m a r k e t i n g has b e e n t o convince e v e r y o n e that n e w is better than old, all the w h i l e w i t n e s s i n g a steady degradation in the quality o f m a n y items. T a k i n g the case o f f u r n i t u r e as an example, it has evolved f r o m solid h a r d w o o d to s o f t w o o d w i t h a h a r d w o o d veneer, to particleboard w i t h a h a r d w o o d veneer, to particleboard w i t h a f a u x - w o o d g r a i n plastic veneer. W h i l e solid h a r d w o o d f u r n i ture can b e s a n d e d d o w n a n d refinished, m a k i n g it as g o o d as new, the cult o f the n e w forces p e o p l e to t h r o w it o u t a n d t h e n p a y for a new, shoddy, disposable, b u t n e w - l o o k i n g replacement. O v e r the years, I have consistently been able to trash-pick better f u r n i t u r e than I c o u l d find in stores, w h i l e the overall quality o f the trash has also g o n e d o w n continually. A t present, m o s t o f the trash I see, even in p r o s p e r o u s n e i g h b o r h o o d s , is simply appallingly b a d a n d n o t w o r t h picking. A n o t h e r way of making consumers dependent on a continuous flow o f n e w p r o d u c t s is t h r o u g h the use o f fashion. H e r e the goal is to m a k e p r o d u c t s that are ugly, w h i l e simultaneously convincing c o n s u m e r s that a certain k i n d o f ugly is "in" this year. N e x t year, a subtly different k i n d o f ugliness reigns supreme, w h i l e t h e p r e v i o u s year's ugliness is simply that — ugly, a n d therefore n o longer desirable. T h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f teenage rebellion, adolescent c o n f o r m i s m and plain i m m a t u r e silliness offers particularly fertile g r o u n d for this t y p e o f mass uglification. T h e result is, again, o b v i o u s : w h e n the flow o f fashionably ugly n e w p r o d u c t s stops, the p r o d u c t s that rem a i n are j u s t plain ugly, a n d t h e self-esteem o f t h o s e w h o are forced to use t h e m rather low. O n c e the c o n s u m e r has b e e n p r o p e r l y a d d l e d into accepting a c o n t i n u o u s flow o f disposable, shoddy, instantly obsolete p r o d u c t s , the next o b v i o u s profit-seeking step is to l o c k u p this state o f affairs w i t h i n a financial a r r a n g e m e n t b a s e d o n debt. T h e t w o - p r o n g e d

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approach involves o u t s o u r c i n g p r o d u c t i o n to countries w i t h cheap labor and spare energy resources, w h i l e p r o v i d i n g d o m e s t i c c o n s u m ers w i t h access to c o n s u m e r credit to m a k e u p for the shortfall in w a g e s f r o m the lost m a n u f a c t u r i n g j o b s . T h i s p u t s b o t h the country, a n d the c o n s u m e r w i t h i n the country, p e r m a n e n t l y in debt. T o service this debt, c o n s u m e r s m u s t w o r k ever harder w h i l e c o n s u m i n g ever less: an a r r a n g e m e n t over w h i c h S o v i e t central planners w o u l d surely have salivated profusely. T h e last act in the A m e r i c a n c o n s u m e r i s t tragedy will e n d w i t h the n o w n a k e d c o n s u m e r s t a n d i n g o n top o f a g i a n t m o u n d o f plastic trash. A t t h e e n d o f an e c o n o m y w h e r e e v e r y t h i n g is disposable stands the disposable consumer. B u t o n c e the c o n s u m e r is d i s p o s e d of, w h o will be left to take h i m o u t w i t h the trash? FOOD T h e inability to feed their p e o p l e stands as the S o v i e t U n i o n s m o s t striking failure. In j u s t a c o u p l e o f generations, a c o u n t r y that w a s the b r e a d b a s k e t o f E u r o p e h a d b e e n t u r n e d into Europe's agricultural basket case, so that by the time the S o v i e t U n i o n collapsed it w a s

financially

a n d politically h a m s t r u n g b y its need to o b t a i n

grain i m p o r t credits f r o m countries that w e r e hostile to its interests. In t h e 1970s, an oil b o o m m a d e it complacent, b u t w h e n the b o o m e n d e d a n d oil prices collapsed it w a s left w i t h no r o o m to maneuver. Its oil provinces reached their all-time p e a k o f p r o d u c t i o n in the m i d - 8 o s ; consequently, it w a s unable to f u r t h e r r a m p u p p r o d u c t i o n a n d b o o s t exports. H o w d o e s a c o u n t r y w i t h m o r e arable land t h a n j u s t a b o u t any other, an ancient a n d successful agricultural tradition c o m p l e t e w i t h all-you-can-eat f o o d festivals a n d a history o f grain surpluses, p r o duce s u c h a d i s m a l result? A short excursion into R u s s i a n history m i g h t be instructive here: small m i s h a p s can be p r o d u c e d accidentally, b u t disasters o n this scale take serious effort. S p e a k i n g o f agricultural disasters as a class, it is w o r t h n o t i n g at the o u t s e t that agriculture is seriously dull w o r k , best d o n e by decidedly simple p e o p l e w h o d o n o t m i n d b e n d i n g d o w n to t o u c h the g r o u n d all d a y

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until they l o o k like h u n c h b a c k s . A l m o s t genetically p r e d i s p o s e d to g r o w i n g f o o d , these h u n c h b a c k s are to b e f o u n d in all traditional f a r m i n g societies the w o r l d over. A s they toil, they w e a r o u t the soil very slowly or, i f t h e y are n o t t o o stressed, a n d j u s t a bit clever, n o t at all. In return for their h u m b l e servitude, they stay in daily a n d direct c o n t a c t w i t h nature in all o f its fickle bounty, r e m a i n i n g p a r t o f it. A s l o n g as they d o n o t resort to shortcuts, such as relying o n j u s t o n e plant, b e it m a i z e or p o t a t o , their n u m b e r s fluctuate naturally along w i t h the climate. B u t try replacing the h u m b l e h u n c h back w i t h a university-trained agronomist, her h o e w i t h a tractor, her b a g o f h e i r l o o m seeds w i t h s o m e m a s s - p r o d u c e d h y b r i d a n d rainfall w i t h an irrigation p u m p , a n d y o u s o o n find yourself o n the road to e n v i r o n m e n t a l oblivion. W h i l e R u s s i a n agriculture presents us w i t h a particularly f r i g h t e n i n g example, let us n o t d i s c o u n t A m e r i c a n efforts in the same direction: w i t h e n o u g h effort at subj u g a t i n g nature, t h r o u g h chemical farming, genetic m a n i p u l a t i o n , p u m p i n g d o w n n o n - r e p l e n i s h i n g aquifers, ethanol p r o d u c t i o n and o t h e r w e a p o n s o f mass desertification, a n y t h i n g is achievable, even starvation, right here in the U S . U p to the m i d d l e o f the 19 th century, t h e R u s s i a n empire operated s o m e t h i n g vaguely a n a l o g o u s to the plantation s y s t e m in t h e old S o u t h , w i t h an ever m o r e distant, F r e n c h - s p e a k i n g nobility presiding over a m u l t i t u d e o f illiterate, R u s s i a n - s p e a k i n g serfs. B a s e d on a m o r e h u m a n e s e r f d o m rather t h a n o u t r i g h t slavery, it b o u n d peasants to the land, giving the l a n d o w n e r control over its use a n d n o m i n a l responsibility for their welfare. A s the 19 th century w o r e on, the imperial t h r o n e f o u n d the p e r p e t u a t i o n o f s e r f d o m increasingly embarrassing to its international prestige as a leading E u r o p e a n power, a n d so, in 1861, less t h a n a m o n t h b e f o r e the o u t b r e a k o f the A m e r i c a n C i v i l W a r , s e r f d o m w a s abolished b y imperial decree, w i t h o u t any b l o o d s h e d a n d w i t h o u t any serious d e t r i m e n t to agricultural p r o d u c t i o n . S o m e peasants w e r e gradually able to acquire their o w n land, a n d b y the early 20 th century the m o r e fertile parts o f R u s s i a a n d the U k r a i n e h a d m a n y p r o s p e r o u s f a r m i n g families. P r e - R e v o l u t i o n a r y R u s s i a was, b y all accounts, a w e l l - f e d place.

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T h e n came the m a n - m a d e disaster, k n o w n as collectivization, t h e results o f w h i c h can b e plainly visible to this d a y to a n y o n e w h o travels t h r o u g h rural R u s s i a a n d t h e s u r r o u n d i n g lands. T h e epicenter o f this disaster is central Russia, a n d t h e f u r t h e r o u t o n e travels — to the Baltic states or to W e s t e r n U k r a i n e — the less o n e sees o f its e n d u r i n g devastation. It is as i f a series o f plagues h a d s w e p t t h r o u g h the land, leaving p o v e r t y a n d desolation in its w a k e . U n d e r the revolutionary slogan "All land to the p e o p l e ! " the p r o s p e r o u s f a r m i n g families w e r e labelled as t h e class e n e m y a n d p e r s e c u t e d . G r a i n , in• eluding seed grain, w a s confiscated to feed the starving cities. T h e result w a s starvation in t h e c o u n t r y s i d e a n d a collapsing rural p o p u lation. In place o f the p r o s p e r o u s family farms, collective f a r m s w e r e o r g a n i z e d , once again b i n d i n g peasants to t h e land, b u t w i t h o u t the benefit o f the old c h u r c h - b o u n d f e u d a l traditions. T h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f m e c h a n i z e d f a r m machinery, chemical fertilizers, pesticides a n d "scientific" f a r m i n g m e t h o d s d i d little to forestall the disaster: t h e best farmers w e r e either d e a d or h a d escaped to the cities. D e s p i t e m u c h g o v e r n m e n t e f f o r t a n d s o m e w i l d l y creative solutions, such as a t t e m p t s at b r o a d c a s t i n g seeds using rockets, agricultural p r o d u c tion never fully recovered, because fixing the p r o b l e m involved u n d o i n g collectivization a n d this w a s n o t politically advisable. A n o t h e r t h i n g n o t politically advisable w a s neglecting to feed the people. In particular, all areas at all times h a d to b e supplied w i t h bread, w h i c h , m o r e t h a n any o t h e r staple, w a s s y m b o l i c o f the c o v e n a n t b e t w e e n the C o m m u n i s t g o v e r n m e n t a n d the subservient masses. B r e a d riots, w h i c h c o u l d n o t b e repressed a n d c o u l d only b e quelled b y a serendipitous delivery o f bread, struck fear into the heart o f every local C o m m u n i s t functionary. T o m a k e such a scenario unlikely, there w e r e local food.stockpiles in every city, s t o c k e d a c c o r d i n g to a g o v e r n m e n t allocation scheme, a n d staples s u c h as b r e a d w e r e a l m o s t always available. A n d w h i l e the quality o f o t h e r g o v e r n m e n t - s u p p l i e d f o o d w a s s o m e t i m e s questionable, the b r e a d w a s always excellent — a reflection o f its s y m b o l i c i m p o r t a n c e . B u t the right to b e fed d i d n o t necessarily e x t e n d b e y o n d the basic carbohydrates, especially in the o u t l y i n g areas. M o s c o w w a s

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always the best-supplied city, w i t h L e n i n g r a d a distant second, w h i l e in m a n y provincial t o w n s the store shelves were m o s t l y bare except for bread, v o d k a a n d a f e w varieties o f c a n n e d f o o d s , a n d w h e n e v e r s o m e scarce item, s u c h as sausage, s u d d e n l y appeared, lines w o u l d instantly f o r m until it w a s sold o u t . S h o p p i n g w a s rather labor intensive, a n d involved carrying heavy loads. S o m e t i m e s it resembled h u n t i n g — stalking that elusive piece o f m e a t l u r k i n g b e h i n d s o m e store counter. S h o r t l y b e f o r e the S o v i e t Union's collapse, it b e c a m e k n o w n i n f o r m a l l y that the ten p e r c e n t o f f a r m l a n d allocated to kitchen gardens (in meager tenth o f a h e c t a r e plots) a c c o u n t e d for s o m e 90 percent o f d o m e s t i c f o o d p r o d u c t i o n . D u r i n g a n d after the econ o m i c collapse, w i t h the g o v e r n m e n t stores quite u n c o n t a m i n a t e d b y f o o d , a n d o f t e n closed altogether, these plots b e c a m e lifesavers for m a n y families. T h e s u m m e r o f 1990 particularly stands o u t in m y m i n d : it w a s the s u m m e r w h e n w e ate n o t h i n g b u t rice ( i m p o r t e d ) , z u c c h i n i ( g r o w n b y us) a n d fish ( f r o m a local lake, c a u g h t b y s o m e neighbors). T h e dismal state o f S o v i e t agriculture t u r n e d o u t to b e paradoxically beneficial in fostering a k i t c h e n g a r d e n economy, w h i c h h e l p e d R u s s i a n s to survive the collapse. Russians always g r e w s o m e o f their o w n f o o d , a n d scarcity o f h i g h - q u a l i t y p r o d u c e in the gove r n m e n t stores k e p t the k i t c h e n g a r d e n tradition g o i n g d u r i n g even the m o r e p r o s p e r o u s times o f the 60s a n d the 70s. A f t e r the collapse, these k i t c h e n gardens t u r n e d o u t to b e lifesavers. W h a t m a n y R u s s i a n s practiced, either t h r o u g h tradition or b y trial a n d error, or sheer laziness, w a s in s o m e w a y s a k i n to the n e w organic f a r m i n g a n d p e r m a c u l t u r e techniques. M a n y p r o d u c t i v e plots in Russia l o o k like a riot o f herbs, vegetables, a n d flowers g r o w i n g in w i l d profusion. In t h e w a n i n g years o f t h e S o v i e t era, the k i t c h e n g a r d e n e c o n o m y c o n t i n u e d to gain in i m p o r t a n c e . B e y o n d u n d e r s c o r i n g the gross inadequacies o f S o v i e t - s t y l e c o m m a n d a n d control industrial agriculture, the success o f the private kitchen gardens is indicative o f a general fact: agriculture is far m o r e efficient w h e n it is carried o u t o n a small scale, using m a n u a l labor.

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W h i l e m o s t families c o o k e d a n d ate at h o m e , institutional fare w a s also considered i m p o r t a n t . W i t h salaries regulated and w i t h n o t h i n g interesting to s p e n d t h e m on, h o w well fed o n e w a s a t w o r k t o o k o n a d d e d significance. Institutional f o o d varied in quality: officers in the nuclear navy ate remarkably well, w h i l e privates in the i n f a n t r y were fed u n r e m a r k a b l e porridge a n d soup. Jobs at m a n y g o v e r n m e n t o r g a n i z a t i o n s , factories a n d institutes w e r e valued for the quality o f their commissaries. T h e s e s o m e t i m e s stayed o p e n even as the e c o n o m y c r u m b l e d , p r o d u c t i o n lines s t o o d still, and salaries w e n t u n p a i d for m o n t h s , p r o v i d i n g an i m p o r t a n t lifeline. S o m e fact o r y cafeterias even w e n t b e y o n d p r o v i d i n g a h o t meal; there, w o r k ers c o u l d b u y a w h o l e u n c o o k e d c h i c k e n or scarce c a n n e d g o o d s , all very reasonably priced. R e s t a u r a n t s d i d exist, b u t were generally o u t s i d e the b u d g e t a r y constraints o f m o s t families; T h e y always struck m e as rather o d d , because their m e n u s were b y a n d large w o r k s o f fiction. W h a t e v e r it w a s y o u tried to order, the waitress w o u l d invariably r e s p o n d w i t h a laconic "Nyetu!"

( " W e don't have that"). A f t e r a f e w a t t e m p t s at or-

dering s o m e t h i n g y o u m i g h t actually w a n t , y o u w o u l d b r e a k d o w n a n d ask: " W h a t d o y o u have?" T h e answer to this mystery w o u l d b e s o m e t h i n g like " B o r s c h t . It's-good today." Surprisingly e n o u g h , it o f t e n w a s quite g o o d . A l t h o u g h restaurants w e r e s o m e t h i n g o f a rarity, there w e r e always p l e n t y o f snack bars, ice c r e a m parlors a n d r e f r e s h m e n t stands. In addition to small-scale farming, forests in R u s s i a have always been u s e d as an i m p o r t a n t additional source o f f o o d . R u s s i a n s reco g n i z e and eat j u s t a b o u t every edible m u s h r o o m variety and all o f the edible berries. D u r i n g t h e p e a k m u s h r o o m season, w h i c h is generally in the fall, forests are overrun w i t h m u s h r o o m pickers. T h e m u s h r o o m s are either pickled or dried a n d stored, a n d o f t e n last t h r o u g h o u t t h e winter. In spite o f the m o n u m e n t a l failures o f S o v i e t

agriculture,

the overall structure o f S o v i e t - s t y l e f o o d delivery p r o v e d to b e paradoxically resilient in the face o f e c o n o m i c collapse and d i s r u p tion. T h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f local f o o d stockpiles a d m i n i s t e r e d by

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politicians c o n d i t i o n e d t o treat b r e a d riots as career-ending calamities, the prevalence o f g o v e r n m e n t institutions t h a t attended to the sustenance o f their employees a n d p l e n t y o f k i t c h e n gardens, m e a n t that there w a s n o starvation a n d very little malnutrition. B u t will fate b e as k i n d to t h e U n i t e d States? In the U n i t e d States, m o s t p e o p l e get their f o o d f r o m a superm a r k e t , w h i c h is supplied f r o m far a w a y using refrigerated diesel trucks, m a k i n g t h e m entirely d e p e n d e n t o n the w i d e s p r e a d availability o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n fuels a n d the c o n t i n u e d maintenance o f the interstate h i g h w a y system. In an energy-scarce w o r l d , neither o f these is a given. M o s t s u p e r m a r k e t chains have j u s t a f e w days' w o r t h o f f o o d in their inventory, relying o n advanced logistical p l a n n i n g a n d j u s t - i n - t i m e delivery to m e e t d e m a n d . T h u s , in m a n y places, f o o d supply p r o b l e m s are a l m o s t g u a r a n t e e d to develop. W h e n they do, n o local a u t h o r i t y is in a p o s i t i o n to exercise control over the situation a n d the p r o b l e m is h a n d e d over to federal e m e r g e n c y m a n a g e m e n t authorities. B a s e d o n their p e r f o r m a n c e after H u r r i c a n e K a t r i n a , these authorities are n o t only manifestly i n c o m p e t e n t , b u t also appear to b e ruled b y t h e e t h o s that it is better for the governm e n t to deny services than p r o v i d e t h e m , to avoid creating a p o p u lation that is d e p e n d e n t o n g o v e r n m e n t help. M a n y p e o p l e in t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s don't even b o t h e r to s h o p a n d j u s t eat fast f o o d . T h e drive to m a x i m i z e p r o f i t w h i l e m i n i m i z i n g costs has resulted in a p r o d u c t that m a n i p u l a t e s the senses into accepting as edible s o m e t h i n g that is mainly a.waste p r o d u c t . U n der strict process control procedures, agro-industrial wastes, sugar, fat a n d salt are c o m b i n e d into an appealing presentation, p a c k a g e d , a n d reinforced b y v i g o r o u s advertising. O n c e accepted, it beguiles the senses b y its reliable consistency, creating a lifelong a d d i c t i o n to b a d f o o d . T h e c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y obliges w i t h an array o f d e o d o r a n t s to m a s k the sickly b o d y o d o r s u c h a diet p r o d u c e s . I m m e r s e d for a lifetime in a field o f artificial sensory perceptions, d o m i n a t e d b y chemical, m a n - m a d e tastes a n d smells, p e o p l e recoil in s h o c k w h e n c o n f r o n t e d w i t h s o m e t h i n g natural, b e it a simple piece o f b o i l e d c h i c k e n liver or the smell o f a healthy h u m a n body. Perversely, they

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d o n o t m i n d car e x h a u s t a n d actually like the carcinogenic "new car smell" o f vinyl upholstery. W h e n p e o p l e d o c o o k , they rarely c o o k f r o m scratch, b u t simply re-heat p r e p a c k a g e d f a c t o r y - p r o d u c e d meals. W h e n t h e y d o c o o k f r o m scratch, t h e s u p p o s e d l y fresh ingredients c o m e f r o m t h o u s a n d s o f miles a w a y a n d are selected for ease o f s h i p p i n g rather than any actually desirable qualities, m a k i n g t h e m w o o d y or p u l p y a n d only barely edible. S i n c e g o o d taste is n o longer o n the m e n u , the f o c u s shifts to quantity, resulting in appallingly s i z e d p o r t i o n s o f undifferentiated p r o t e i n a n d starch d r o w n e d in fat, a d m i n i s t e r e d in national festivals o f pathetic gorging, o f w h i c h T h a n k s g i v i n g seems to b e the m a i n one. B u t this is all g o o d for business a n d keeps the cancer, diabetes a n d heart disease industries h u m m i n g . T h i s is all very unhealthy, a n d the effect o n the n a t i o n s girth is visible clear across the p a r k i n g lot. A lot o f t h e people, w h o j u s t w a d d l e to a n d f r o m their cars, seem u n p r e p a r e d for w h a t is c o m i n g next. I f they s u d d e n l y h a d to start living like R u s s i a n s t h e y w o u l d b l o w o u t their knees. M o s t o f t h e m w o u l d n o t even try, b u t simply wait, patiently or impatiently, for s o m e o n e to c o m e a n d feed t h e m . A n d i f that f o o d arrives a n d consists o f a s t y r o f o a m b o x c o n t a i n ing a p u c k o f p s e u d o - m e a t bejtween t w o p u c k s o f p s e u d o - b r e a d a n d a plastic b o t t l e o f water laced w i t h p s e u d o - s y r u p , t h e y w o u l d b e satisfied. B u t t h e f o o d m a y never arrive. T h e r e is already a fair a m o u n t o f h u n g e r in the U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d m a n y families are f o r c e d to c h o o s e b e t w e e n f o o d a n d gasoline. G a s o l i n e is the greater o f the t w o necessities, because it is necessary for t h e m to drive to b u y f o o d : their car always gets to eat first. In the future, the choice will b e m a d e for t h e m : they will b e priced o u t o f the market, their f o o d u s e d to p r o d u c e ethanol, so that t h e m o r e f o r t u n a t e can k e e p driving their cars a tiny bit longer. T h e process o f starving t h e m o u t m i g h t g o by o n e o f t h e e u p h e m i s t i c t e r m s e c o n o m i s t s s e e m to favor, s u c h as the s o m e w h a t sinister " d e m a n d destruction," or the m o r e b l a n d "load shedding." T h i s process is already u n d e r w a y in M e x i c o , w h e r e corn m a s a p r o d u c e r s w h o provide a staple p u r c h a s e d b y the p o o r

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are s q u e e z e d o u t b y t h e e t h a n o l p r o d u c e r s . T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s is next. W h o is that skeleton driving a p i c k u p truck? L e t us h o p e it is n o t y o u , b u t s o m e o n e else — s o m e o n e less f o r t u n a t e than you, w i t h w h o m y o u are n o t acquainted. MEDICINE T h e S o v i e t g o v e r n m e n t t h r e w resources at i m m u n i z a t i o n p r o grams, infectious disease control a n d basic care. It directly o p e r a t e d a system o f s t a t e - o w n e d clinics, hospitals a n d sanatoriums. M a n y e n d e m i c a n d e p i d e m i c diseases, s u c h as smallpox a n d polio, w e r e eliminated t h r o u g h aggressive i m m u n i z a t i o n p r o g r a m s . O t h e r s , such as tuberculosis, w e r e k e p t in c h e c k . P e o p l e w i t h fatal ailments or chronic c o n d i t i o n s o f t e n h a d reason to c o m p l a i n a n d h a d to pay for private care — i f they h a d the money. B u t access to medical care w a s g u a r a n t e e d for everyone. P e o p l e m a n a g e d to live o u t their years n o t w o r r y i n g t o o m u c h a b o u t finding a d o c t o r i f t h e y n e e d e d one. N o r d i d the S o v i e t m e d i c a l system m a k e people sick f r o m w o r r y i n g a b o u t it, p u t t h e m in d e b t or leave t h e m to die if t h e y c o u l d n o t pay for treatment. P e r h a p s the o n e truly evil part o f t h e S o v i e t medical establishm e n t w a s t h e system o f psychiatric i m p r i s o n m e n t , w h i c h treated political dissent w i t h aggressive r e g i m e n s o f antipsychotic drugs. T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s is only n o w starting to catch u p in this area, b u t has already p r o d u c e d s o m e s t u n n i n g innovations, such as the psychiatric i m p r i s o n m e n t o f children, w h e r e m i s b e h a v i n g adolescents are t a k e n f r o m their families against their families' w i s h e s a n d c o m m i t t e d to m e n t a l hospitals. S o m e o f these children are even subj e c t e d to aggressive regimens o f antipsychotic m e d i c a t i o n s that have n o t b e e n a p p r o v e d for general use b u t are p r o v i d e d b y p h a r m a c e u t i cal c o m p a n i e s for experimental p u r p o s e s . S i n c e t h e dissolution o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , R u s s i a n m e d i c i n e has b e e n largely privatized, w i t h disastrous c o n s e q u e n c e s for public health. It is still possible to b e a d m i t t e d to a hospital w i t h o u t b e ing forced to pay, b u t o n c e there, the patient m a y languish w i t h o u t t r e a t m e n t until f u n d s arrive. A c h i l d h o o d friend o f m i n e landed in

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a provincial hospital after a b a d car accident, w h i c h left h i m first u n c o n s c i o u s , t h e n disoriented. A n d there h e r e m a i n e d , m o r e or less ignored, until an influential f r i e n d accidentally f o u n d h i m there. S h o c k e d b y w h a t he saw, the f r i e n d w a l k e d into the c h i e f s u r g e o n s office, t o o k o u t his g u n , placed it o n t h e surgeon's d e s k a n d a s k e d for a very t h o r o u g h e x p l a n a t i o n . " O h , so y o u w a n t us to treat h i m ? " w a s the startled response. W h i l e the collapse o f the S o v i e t U n i o n w a s an abrupt, seismic event, the dissolution o f its medical system t o o k t h e better part o f a decade. S u r g e o n s c o n t i n u e d to operate, hospitals a n d neighborh o o d clinics stayed o p e n , children c o n t i n u e d to b e i m m u n i z e d a n d t r a u m a v i c t i m s c o n t i n u e d to b e p a t c h e d u p a n d reanimated. Periodically, desperate pleas c o u l d b e h e a r d f r o m various d a r k corners o f the f o r m e r empire, asking for life-preserving d r u g s to b e sent, heart medications especially; eventually these pleas c o u l d b e h e a r d n o more. T h e w e a k e n e d system o f public health has b e e n unable to c h e c k the spread o f A I D S , w h i l e R u s s i a n p r i s o n s have b e c o m e incubators for n e w strains o f drug-resistant tuberculosis. A t the o t h e r extreme, the R u s s i a n m i d d l e class can generally a f f o r d to pay for medical t r e a t m e n t a n d l u x u r i o u s clinics offer all m a n n e r o f special services t o t h o s e w i t h d e e p p o c k e t s . S o v i e t - s t y l e medical care is still b e i n g practiced in C u b a and, t h a n k s t o C u b a n medics, in m a n y o t h e r countries, especially a r o u n d the C a r i b b e a n . C u b a n m e d i c s stayed b e h i n d in P a k i s t a n to treat e a r t h q u a k e v i c t i m s after the j o u r n a l i s t s left a n d W e s t e r n rescue t e a m s d e p a r t e d in haste. M o t i v a t e d b y an e t h o s o f public service rather than profit, t h e y m a k e a positive difference for m a n y lives. In Belize, w h i c h is q u i t e a p o o r country, I received p r o m p t a n d excellent free e m e r g e n c y medical care f r o m o n e s u c h C u b a n medic. In t h e U S , in similar circumstances, I h a d to w a i t eight h o u r s in an emerg e n c y r o o m , t h e n w a s seen for five m i n u t e s b y a sleep-deprived intern w h o scribbled o u t a prescription for s o m e t h i n g that is available w i t h o u t a prescription a l m o s t e v e r y w h e r e else in t h e w o r l d . T h e n there e n s u e d a p a p e r battle b e t w e e n the hospital a n d t h e insurance company, lasting m a n y m o n t h s , over w h e t h e r t h e hospital c o u l d

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a reason to b e depressed, b u t instead o f c o n s u l t i n g t h e m to c h a n g e their lives to b e less depression-inducing, d o c t o r s prescribe dangero u s a n d o f t e n addictive palliatives. A vicious cycle is created: a j o b causes depression, a d r u g enables a p e r s o n to stay in t h e j o b a n d t h e j o b m a k e s it possible to continue receiving the d r u g . T h e d o c t o r w h o p e r p e t u a t e s this vicious cycle is t r a p p e d in a vicious cycle o f her o w n , forced to stay w i t h i n t h e system in order to m a k e p a y m e n t s against the m o u n t a i n o f s t u d e n t loans a c c u m u l a t e d d u r i n g medical school. S o m e politicians in the U n i t e d S t a t e s like to p a y lip service to s o m e t h i n g they refer to as universal health insurance. W h a t t h e y m e a n b y this is a plan to pass federal legislation to force p e o p l e to b u y private health insurance w h e t h e r t h e y can a f f o r d to d o so or not. T h e i r goal is n o t to i m p r o v e access to health care, b u t to m a k e free care for t h e indigent — s o m e t h i n g their friends in the m e d i c a l i n d u s t r y dislike —

a t h i n g o f the past. B u t the actual c o n c e p t o f

i n s u r i n g someone's health is itself p r e p o s t e r o u s . Insurance applies to rare, u n f o r e s e e n events, s u c h as fires or floods, n o t events that are g u a r a n t e e d to o c c u r to everyone, such as sickness a n d d e a t h . ( L i f e insurance is an exceptional case o f i n s u r i n g others against the risk o f one's p r e m a t u r e death.) Further, health insurance is b a d for y o u r health: in a situation w h e r e basic t r e a t m e n t is always p r o v i d e d u n conditionally, b u t chronic or fatal c o n d i t i o n s are given as m u c h att e n t i o n as society can afford, p e o p l e m a k e an effort to stay healthy. I f their t r e a t m e n t for a possibly self-inflicted c o n d i t i o n is insured, t h e y lack t h e s t r o n g incentive to avoid risky behaviors or lifestyles. Lastly, health insurance largely reduces the scope o f m a k i n g p o l i c y decisions regarding the feasibility o f c o n t i n u i n g to p r o v i d e m e d i c a l care to a financial consideration. I f the imperative is for m e d i c i n e to c o n q u e r death, t h e n t h e financial b u r d e n o f such a medical s y s t e m is infinite. W i t h health insurance, the imperative b e c o m e s t o k e e p s o m e o n e alive until the m o n e y runs o u t . G i v e n an increasingly sick a n d aging p o p u l a t i o n , this a r r a n g e m e n t h a s n o future, a n d any exp e r t o n t h e f u t u r e o f M e d i c a r e w i l l tell y o u that it c a n n o t b e p a i d for. G i v e n the quality o f the d i s c u s s i o n o n this issue so far, a t t e m p t s at r e f o r m i n g it s e e m likely to b e fruitless at best.

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G i v e n this situation, there is n o t m u c h that s o m e o n e w h o d o e s n o t w i s h to w a l l o w in w a g e slavery can reasonably d o . For t h o s e w i t h s o m e money, catastrophic health insurance w i t h a very h i g h d e d u c t ible, plus at least the a m o u n t o f the deductible t u c k e d a w a y s o m e where, can a f f o r d s o m e p r o t e c t i o n against accidents. For everyone, staying healthy t h r o u g h g o o d habits, a healthy a m o u n t o f m a n u a l labor, avoidance o f stress, o v e r w o r k , p a c k a g e d f o o d , p o l l u t e d places a n d vicious p e o p l e is, o f course, always advisable. M e d i c a l evacuation to a c o u n t r y w i t h a m o r e reasonable health care system s h o u l d n o t b e neglected as a viable o p t i o n . Lastly, staying a w a y f r o m d o c tors, a n d especially f r o m hospitals, seems advisable: m a n y p e o p l e die f r o m m e d i c a t i o n s prescribed b y doctors, w h i l e hospitals spread disease, i n c l u d i n g drug-resistant bacteria. For t h o s e w h o have or foresee significant o n g o i n g medical needs, staying in the U n i t e d S t a t e s will p o s e a u n i q u e set o f p r o b l e m s ; t h e y m i g h t w i s h to consider s e e k i n g refuge in o n e o f t h e m a n y countries that provides free basic a n d e m e r g e n c y medical care to their entire p o p u l a t i o n . W h e n it c o m e s to medicine, almost any c o u n t r y in the w o r l d will b e better than o n e that is f u l l - u p w i t h u n e m p l o y e d medical specialists, insurance consultants a n d medical billing experts.

EDUCATION T h e S o v i e t e d u c a t i o n system w a s generally quite excellent. It prod u c e d an o v e r w h e l m i n g l y literate p o p u l a t i o n a n d m a n y

great

specialists. E d u c a t i o n w a s free at all levels, b u t higher e d u c a t i o n s o m e t i m e s p a i d a stipend a n d o f t e n p r o v i d e d r o o m a n d b o a r d . T h e educational system h e l d t o g e t h e r quite well after the e c o n o m y collapsed. T h e p r o b l e m w a s that the graduates h a d n o j o b s to l o o k forw a r d to u p o n graduation. M a n y o f t h e m lost their way. A s w i t h m o s t things S o v i e t , e d u c a t i o n w a s centrally o r g a n i z e d w i t h c u r r i c u l u m set a n d t e x t b o o k s a p p r o v e d by M o s c o w . T h e schools served the n e i g h b o r h o o d s in w h i c h they were located a n d m o s t p u pils w a l k e d to school, a l t h o u g h s o m e u s e d public transportation. T h e t e a c h i n g style w a s decidedly o l d - f a s h i o n e d . S t a n d a r d i z e d tests were u n h e a r d of. G r a d e s w e r e issued b a s e d largely o n oral exams:

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w h e n called, the p u p i l s t o o d u p a n d recited the lesson b e f o r e the class o r c a m e u p to the b l a c k b o a r d a n d w o r k e d o u t a p r o b l e m . A l i e n inventions such as s t a n d a r d i z e d tests, g r a d i n g o n a curve, varsity sports or the p r o m , were, obviously, u n h e a r d of: s c h o o l w a s a b o u t learning. B u t there w e r e usually s o m e club activities available after h o u r s : w o o d w o r k i n g or chess, for instance. T h e pressure to learn w a s enforced rather simply: n o t learning w a s never an o p t i o n . P u pils w h o w e r e held b a c k a g r a d e w e r e automatically s t i g m a t i z e d . B e cause p u p i l s m o v e t h r o u g h the grades as a g r o u p (I w a s in G r o u p B), b e i n g h e l d b a c k a grade m e a n s h a v i n g to j o i n a n o t h e r g r o u p , m a d e u p o f y o u n g e r b u t already m o r e successful children. T h o s e w h o w e r e expelled w e r e automatically enrolled in b o a r d i n g schools, w h i c h h a d m u c h stricter discipline. T h o s e w h o c o u l d n o t pass the e x a m s to g o o n to 9 t h a n d 10 th grade w o u l d g o o n to a trade school or b e enlisted in the army. T h o s e w h o d i d succeed in c o m p l e t i n g all ten grades tried their best t o g o o n to h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n — an institute or a university — by h i r i n g private tutors a n d b y s u b m i t t i n g to entrance exams, w h i c h were, o n c e again, oral e x a m s before a c o m m i t tee. I f accepted, they received r o o m , b o a r d a n d stipend, and, at least prior to the collapse, g u a r a n t e e d e m p l o y m e n t after g r a d u a t i o n . I f n o t accepted, t h e y were, once again, d r a f t e d into the army. P u b l i c p r i m a r y a n d secondary e d u c a t i o n in the U S fails to achieve in 12 years w h a t S o v i e t s c h o o l s generally achieved in 8 . 1 a m sure that this failure can b e attributed to m a n y factors: a diet o f sugar-water a n d j u n k f o o d , m a n y h o u r s o f m i n d - d e s t r o y i n g television a n d video g a m e s , the s e n s o r y deprivation o f the s u b u r b a n envir o n m e n t a n d car society, the a t o m i z e d nature o f A m e r i c a n society, the u n d e r p a i d schoolteachers, t h e n o n s e n s e o f s t a n d a r d i z e d testing a n d so f o r t h . T h o s e w i t h p l e n t y o f spare t i m e s h o u l d feel free to p o n d e r such factors, b u t a m u c h simpler explanation s h o u l d suffice: A m e r i c a n s c h o o l s fail to e d u c a t e because t h a t is n o t their f u n c tion. T h e i r f u n c t i o n is to institutionalize children at an early age. In d u e course, they will g o o n to o t h e r institutions: jails, psychiatric hospitals, the military or, for t h o s e w h o learn o b e d i e n c e w h i l e retaining s o m e s e m b l a n c e o f sanity, colleges a n d universities. T h e r e

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is a reason w h y jails, hospitals a n d schools are o f t e n architecturally indistinguishable: they are b u t different p a r t s o f the s a m e system, representing different phases o f the institutionalization life cycle. I can offer m y o w n experience w i t h the t w o e d u c a t i o n a l systems to illustrate the difference b e t w e e n S o v i e t a n d A m e r i c a n public education. W i t h six i n c o m p l e t e grades o f lackluster academic perform a n c e at a L e n i n g r a d s c h o o l b e h i n d me, I arrived in the U S . H e r e , I w a s enrolled in t h e 8 th grade. I w a s always m u c h m o r e interested in languages, history a n d social studies t h a n in m a t h or science, a n d so I d i d m y best to avoid learning any m o r e m a t h . T h i s t u r n e d o u t to b e surprisingly easy, and, t h a n k s to m y six grades o f R u s s i a n m a t h , I coasted to g r a d u a t i o n w i t h similar, consistently lackluster results. A f t e r graduation, I c o n t i n u e d to coast along, f i n d i n g that c o m p u t e r w o r k offered the easiest w a y to m a k e money. B u t the w o r k t u r n e d o u t to b e rather dreary, t h e l o n g h o u r s k e p t getting longer (I w a s a u t o m a t i n g a c c o u n t i n g chores at a m a j o r b a n k a n d m a d e m o s t o f m y overtime m o n e y c o m p i l i n g quarterly reports), a n d so I d e c i d e d that m o r e s c h o o l wouldn't b e a n y worse. S i n c e I w a s already u p to m y n e c k in c o m p u t e r s , I t h o u g h t t h a t m o r e o f t h e s a m e w o u l d n o t h u r t t o o m u c h a n d applied. T w o local universities accepted m e into their c o m p u t e r engineering p r o g r a m s a n d offered m e a full scholarship. I enrolled at the o n e that d i d n o t a t t e m p t to place m e in a remedial m a t h course. D u r i n g m y consistently lackluster college career, I h a d to take h a l f a d o z e n m a t h courses, f r o m C a l c u l u s I t h r o u g h M u l t i v a r i a t e C a l c u l u s , i n c l u d i n g s o m e applied m a t h courses. Consistently, I d i d w o r s e t h a n usual w h e n the professor w a s an A m e r i c a n and t u r n e d in stellar results i f t h e p r o f e s s o r h a p p e n e d to b e a R u s s i a n (there were, and are, a lot o f R u s s i a n s teaching at this s c h o o l ) . T h i s w a s because the A m e r i c a n s w o u l d inevitably try to p r e p us for t a k i n g e x a m s a n d teach us b a s e d o n examples o f inane, meaningless p r o b l e m s , w h i l e the R u s s i a n s tried to teach us t o t h i n k b a s e d o n general principles, presenting each topic in t h e m o s t general t e r m s possible, s o m e t i m e s even i n c l u d i n g s o m e b a c k g r o u n d i n f o r m a t i o n o n h o w the particular theoretical p o i n t w a s settled a n d w h y o n earth it w a s still b e i n g pre-

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sented to us. M o s t A m e r i c a n s t u d e n t s f o u n d t h e R u s s i a n approach cruel a n d unusual. T h e y j u s t w a n t e d to k n o w w h a t w a s g o i n g to be o n t h e m i d t e r m a n d the final a n d w e r e frustrated b y t h e fact that t h e p r o f e s s o r h a d n o t given t h e q u e s t i o n any t h o u g h t . T h e exams w e r e s o m e t i m e s a hilarious train w r e c k : t h o s e w h o u n d e r s t o o d the principles, a n d c o u l d d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t t h e y u n d e r s t o o d t h e m by a p p l y i n g t h e m to any r a n d o m p r o b l e m , passed; t h o s e w h o tried to c r a m for the e x a m b a s e d o n h o m e w o r k p r o b l e m s , failed miserably. I particularly r e m e m b e r o n e e x a m w h e r e I c o u l d only w o r k o u t three o f t h e f o u r p r o b l e m s a n d w a l k e d into the professor's office l o o k i n g rather sheepish. T h e l o o k I g o t f r o m h i m w a s priceless: I g o t 75; the p a s s i n g score w a s 22. T h e higher e d u c a t i o n system in the U n i t e d S t a t e s is g o o d at m a n y things — g o v e r n m e n t a n d industrial research, team sports, vocational training. B u t A m e r i c a n colleges and universities o f t e n fail t o achieve in f o u r years w h a t S o v i e t secondary s c h o o l s achieved in t w o (9 t h a n d 10 th grades). T h a t is, t h e y fail to p r o d u c e graduates w h o have a d e q u a t e general k n o w l e d g e , g o o d c o m m a n d o f their native language a n d t h e ability t o acquire specialized k n o w l e d g e w i t h o u t any f u r t h e r institutional assistance. I a m sure that this failure can b e attributed to m a n y factors: t h e star system o f professorship, w h e r e politically c o n n e c t e d faculty m e m b e r s teach seminars o n h o w a n d w h y t h e y are glorious, w h i l e m o s t o f the actual teaching is left u p to adjuncts, associate professors, p o s t - d o c s , teaching fellows a n d other academic rabble; the d e a d w e i g h t o f so-called chips o f f t h e o l d b l o c k — children o f a l u m n i ; the refusal o f talented A m e r i cans to teach, leaving t h e field o p e n to foreigners w h o couldn't g e t in at h o m e , a n d so forth. T h o s e w i t h p l e n t y o f spare t i m e s h o u l d feel free to p o n d e r s u c h factors, b u t , again, a m u c h simpler explanation s h o u l d suffice: t h e goal o f the A m e r i c a n higher e d u c a t i o n system is n o t to educate. T o me, an e d u c a t e d p e r s o n is s o m e o n e free in m i n d a n d spirit to explore the universe o n their o w n . Perhaps to y o u it is j u s t s o m e o n e w h o can get a j o b that pays well; in w h i c h case, therein lies y o u r und o i n g . T h e A m e r i c a n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n system succeeds brilliantly at

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one thing: p r o d u c i n g a subservient g r a d u a t e w h o has n o choice b u t j o i n the labor force o n the terms d i c t a t e d b y her f u t u r e c o r p o r a t e masters. A l o n g w i t h accepting the b u r d e n o f educational debt, the graduate m a k e s a n u m b e r o f k e y concessions: that financial success is m o r e i m p o r t a n t t h a n d o i n g w h a t y o u w a n t ; that h a v i n g a career is m o r e i m p o r t a n t t h a n family life; and, p e r h a p s m o s t importantly, that failure is n o t an o p t i o n . T h e n e w l y g r a d u a t e d dentist c a n n o t afford to realize that rotten teeth really freak her o u t a n d that she should p e r h a p s d o s o m e volunteer w o r k unrelated to dentistry. T h e need to repay t h e g u a r a n t e e d s t u d e n t loans m e a n s that she m u s t drill those teeth, w h e t h e r she w a n t s to or not, w h i l e heavily m e d i cated if necessary. In the U n i t e d States, higher e d u c a t i o n is rarely a b o u t e d u c a t i n g people, in the sense o f t h e m learning h o w to learn, and h a v i n g t h e intellectual f r e e d o m to d o so. It is m o s t c o m m o n l y a b o u t training: the i m p a r t i n g o f temporary, q u i c k l y obsolescent skills, n o t universal k n o w l e d g e . ( T h i s , b y the way, explains t h e strange prevalence o f adult e d u c a t i o n a n d other f o r m s o f retraining: t h e g r a d u a t e s have n o t been t a u g h t h o w to learn o n their o w n . ) B u t it is mainly a b o u t securing u n q u e s t i o n i n g o b e d i e n c e w i t h i n a c o m p l e x r u l e - f o l l o w i n g system. T h e S o v i e t system required absolute obedience o f its e d u cated citizens, b u t at least s o m e o f t h e m w e r e e q u i p p e d w i t h s o m e thing called krugozor,

w h i c h English can express only approximately

as a w i d e m e n t a l h o r i z o n , a n d w h i c h m a d e t h e m at least theoretically capable o f disobedience. T h e elegant trick o f the A m e r i c a n higher e d u c a t i o n system is that the o b e d i e n c e it exacts is a u t o m a t i c : the e d u c a t e d citizens d o n o t k n o w w h a t d i s o b e d i e n c e w o u l d b e like, b e y o n d the seemingly pointless, self-defeating refusal to profit f r o m the system, w h i c h is really all t h a t t h e y have b e e n t a u g h t h o w to d o . T h i s a r r a n g e m e n t m a y w o r k passably w e l l for t h e t i m e being, w h i l e there is still a system f r o m w h i c h t h e y can profit, b u t it is really a very h i g h price to p a y f o r a b i t o f vocational training. T w e l v e years o f s c h o o l plus f o u r years o f college is quite a lot o f waste, considering t h a t eight years o f s c h o o l a n d t w o years o f vocational training has b e e n d e m o n s t r a t e d to achieve a c o m p a r a b l e result. U n d e r t h e

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m o r e austere e c o n o m i c regime b e f i t t i n g a b a n k r u p t nation, m u c h o f this vainglorious educational i n f r a s t r u c t u r e is b o u n d to fall b y the wayside. For t h o s e interested in p r e s e r v i n g s o m e s e m b l a n c e o f civilization o n t h e N o r t h A m e r i c a n continent, as well as for t h o s e w h o d o n o t w i s h to p u s h themselves or their children t h r o u g h w h a t will a l m o s t certainly a m o u n t to a failed p r o g r a m , t h e e m p h a s i s s h o u l d b e o n h o m e schooling, apprenticeships, a n d literacy. Illiteracy is already very h i g h in the U n i t e d States, a b n o r m a l l y h i g h for a d e v e l o p e d nation, a n d it w i l l b e a battle to k e e p this p r o b l e m f r o m g r o w i n g m u c h w o r s e . It is definitely a battle w o r t h fighting. ETHNICITY In t e r m s o f racial a n d ethnic c o m p o s i t i o n , the U n i t e d S t a t e s resembles Yugoslavia m o r e t h a n R u s s i a . Ethnically m i x e d societies are fragile a n d have a t e n d e n c y t o explode. T h e social a t m o s p h e r e o f post-collapse A m e r i c a is unlikely to b e as placid a n d amicable as that o f p o s t - c o l l a p s e Russia. A t least in parts, it is m o r e likely to resemble other, m o r e ethnically m i x e d , a n d therefore less fortunate parts o f the f o r m e r S o v i e t U n i o n , such as the Fergana valley (a fertile, densely settled a n d politically explosive C e n t r a l A s i a n valley, shared by U z b e k s , T a j i k s , K y r g y z a n d o t h e r ethnicities) and, o f course, t h a t " b e a c o n o f f r e e d o m " (or so says the U S president) in t h e Caucasus, Georgia. T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s has traditionally b e e n a very racist c o u n try, w i t h n u m e r o u s categories o f p e o p l e o n e w o u l d n ' t w a n t one's d a u g h t e r or sister to marry, n o m a t t e r w h o o n e h a p p e n s to be. It w a s f o u n d e d o n the exploitation o f A f r i c a n slaves a n d t h e exterm i n a t i o n o f the natives. O v e r its formative years, there w a s no form a l intermarriage b e t w e e n the E u r o p e a n s a n d the A f r i c a n s or t h e E u r o p e a n s a n d t h e Indians. T h i s s t a n d s in stark contrast t o o t h e r A m e r i c a n c o n t i n e n t nations s u c h as Brazil. T o this day in t h e U S there remains a d i s d a i n f u l attitude t o w a r d any tribe other t h a n the A n g l o - S a x o n . G l a z e d over w i t h a layer o f political correctness, at least in polite society, it c o m e s o u t w h e n o b s e r v i n g w h o m m o s t s u c h A n g l o - S a x o n p e o p l e actually c h o o s e to m a r r y o r date.

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R u s s i a is a c o u n t r y w h o s e ethnic profile shifts slowly f r o m mainly E u r o p e a n in the W e s t to A s i a n in the East. Russia's settlem e n t o f its vast territory w a s a c c o m p a n i e d b y intermarriage w i t h every tribe t h e R u s s i a n s m e t o n their drive east. O n e o f the f o r m a tive episodes o f R u s s i a n h i s t o r y w a s t h e M o n g o l invasion, w h i c h resulted in a large i n f u s i o n o f A s i a n b l o o d into R u s s i a n genealogy. O n the o t h e r side, R u s s i a received quite a f e w i m m i g r a n t s f r o m W e s t e r n E u r o p e . Currently, Russia's ethnic p r o b l e m s are limited to c o m b a t i n g ethnic mafias a n d to the m a n y small b u t h u m i l i a t i n g e p i s o d e s o f a n t i - S e m i t i s m , w h i c h have b e e n a feature o f R u s s i a n society for centuries and, in spite o f w h i c h , Jews, m y f a m i l y included, have d o n e quite well there. J e w s were, however, b a r r e d f r o m s o m e o f the m o r e prestigious universities a n d institutes a n d held b a c k in other ways. T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s remains a p o w d e r k e g o f ethnic tension w h e r e u r b a n blacks feel o p p r e s s e d by s u b u r b a n w h i t e s , w h o in t u r n fear to venture into m a j o r sections o f the cities. In a t i m e o f p e r m a nent crisis, u r b a n blacks m i g h t w e l l riot a n d l o o t the cities, because t h e y don't o w n t h e m , a n d the s u b u r b a n w h i t e s are likely to get foreclosed o u t o f their "little cabins in the woods," as James K u n s t l e r c h a r m i n g l y calls t h e m , a n d d e c a m p to a nearby trailer p a r k . A d d to this already volatile m i x t u r e t h e facts that firearms are w i d e l y available a n d violence p e r m e a t e s A m e r i c a n society, particularly in the S o u t h , the W e s t a n d the d e a d industrial cities like D e t r o i t . N o part o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s is an o b v i o u s choice for the s u r v i v a l - m i n d e d , b u t s o m e places are obviously riskier t h a n others. A n y place w i t h a history o f racial or ethnic tension is probably u n safe. T h i s rules o u t m u c h o f the S o u t h , the S o u t h w e s t , a n d m a n y large cities elsewhere. S o m e p e o p l e m i g h t find a safe h a r b o r in an ethnically h o m o g e n e o u s enclave o f their o w n k i n d , w h i l e the rest w o u l d b e well-advised to l o o k for t h e f e w c o m m u n i t i e s w h e r e interethnic relations have b e e n c e m e n t e d t h r o u g h integrated living a n d intermarriage a n d w h e r e the strange a n d fragile entity that is multiethnic society m i g h t have a c h a n c e o f h o l d i n g together.

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RELIGION In t e r m s o f religion, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w a s relatively free o f apocalyptic d o o m s d a y cults. V e r y f e w p e o p l e there w i s h e d for a planetsized a t o m i c fireball to herald the second c o m i n g o f their savior. T h i s w a s i n d e e d a blessing. P r e - r e v o l u t i o n a r y Russia's t w o - h e a d e d eagle s y m b o l i z e d t h e m o n a r c h y a n d t h e church, w i t h a c r o w n o n o n e h e a d a n d a miter o n the other. A l o n g w i t h its s o m e w h a t holier manifestations, such as its i c o n o g r a p h y a n d m o n a s t i c tradition, the R u s s i a n O r t h o d o x c h u r c h w a s as bloated w i t h w e a l t h a n d ostentation, a n d as oppressive, as the m o n a r c h y w h o s e p o w e r it h e l p e d legitimize. B u t over the course o f the 20 th century R u s s i a m a n a g e d to evolve in a distinctly secular way, o p p r e s s i n g religious p e o p l e w i t h c o m p u l s o r y atheism. T h e U n i t e d States, uncharacteristically for a W e s t e r n nation, remains a fairly religious place, w h e r e m o s t p e o p l e l o o k f o r a n d find G o d in a c h u r c h , s y n a g o g u e or m o s q u e . T h e colonies' precocious m o v e to leave the f o l d o f the British E m p i r e has m a d e t h e U S s o m e t h i n g o f a living fossil in t e r m s o f cultural evolution. T h i s is m a n i f e s t e d in s o m e trivial ways, s u c h as the inability to grasp the metric system (placing it in c o m p a n y w i t h Liberia a n d M y a n m a r ) or its distinctly 18 th c e n t u r y t e n d e n c y to m a k e a fetish o f its national flag, as well as in s o m e m a j o r ones, s u c h as its rather h a l f - h e a r t e d e m b r a c e o f secularism. W h a t this difference m e a n s in t h e c o n t e x t o f e c o n o m i c collapse is, surprisingly, next to n o t h i n g . P e r h a p s the A m e r i c a n is m o r e likely t h a n n o t t o start q u o t i n g t h e Bible a n d g o i n g o n a b o u t the A p o c a lypse, the e n d o f times, a n d the R a p t u r e . T h e s e t h o u g h t s , need I say, are n o t conducive to survival. B u t the s u p p o s e d l y atheist R u s s i a n t u r n e d o u t to b e j u s t as likely to g o o n a b o u t T h e E n d o f the W o r l d , a n d flocked to t h e n e w l y o p e n e d c h u r c h e s in search o f certainty a n d solace. P e r h a p s t h e m o r e significant difference is n o t b e t w e e n prevalence or lack o f religion, b u t the differences b e t w e e n the d o m i n a n t religions. In spite o f the architectural ostentation o f the R u s s i a n O r t h o d o x C h u r c h , a n d the p o m p a n d c i r c u m s t a n c e o f its rituals, its

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message has always been one o f asceticism as the road to salvation. Salvation is for the p o o r and t h e h u m b l e , because y o u r rewards are either in this w o r l d or the next, n o t b o t h . T h i s is rather different f r o m P r o t e s t a n t i s m , the d o m i n a n t religion in A m e r i c a , w h i c h m a d e the dramatic shift to c o n s i d e r i n g w e a l t h as one o f G o d ' s blessings, i g n o r i n g s o m e inconvenient p o i n t s rather emphatically m a d e b y Jesus to t h e effect that rich p e o p l e are extremely unlikely to b e saved. Conversely, p o v e r t y b e c a m e associated w i t h laziness a n d vice, robb i n g p o o r p e o p l e o f their dignity. T h u s , a R u s s i a n is less likely to consider a s u d d e n descent into p o v e r t y as a fall f r o m G o d ' s grace a n d e c o n o m i c collapse as G o d ' s p u n i s h m e n t u p o n t h e people, w h i l e the religions t h a t d o m i n a t e A m e r i c a — P r o t e s t a n t i s m , J u d a i s m a n d Islam — all feature t e m poral success o f their followers as a k e y piece o f evidence that G o d is w e l l - d i s p o s e d t o w a r d t h e m . W h a t will h a p p e n o n c e G o d ' s g o o d will t o w a r d t h e m is no longer manifest? C h a n c e s are, they will b e c o m e angry a n d try to find s o m e o n e other t h a n their o w n selves to blame, that b e i n g o n e o f the central m e c h a n i s m s o f h u m a n psychology. W e s h o u l d l o o k f o r w a r d to u n e x p e c t e d l y w r a t h f u l congregations eager to d o t h e w o r k o f an u n e x p e c t e d l y w r a t h f u l God. T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s is b y n o m e a n s h o m o g e n e o u s w h e n it c o m e s to intensity o f religious sentiment. W h e n l o o k i n g for a survivable place to settle, it is probably a g o o d idea to l o o k for a place w h e r e religious fervor d o e s n o t r u n to extremes. ENERGY T h e S o v i e t U n i o n d i d n o t need to i m p o r t energy. T h e p r o d u c t i o n a n d distribution system faltered, b u t never collapsed. Price controls k e p t t h e lights o n even as h y p e r i n f l a t i o n raged. T h e r e w e r e s o m e supply disruptions, s o m e o f w h i c h f r o z e o u t certain r e m o t e settlements, especially in the A r c t i c . T h e e n e r g y supply system p r o v e d to b e m u c h m o r e resilient t h a n the political system or the e c o n o m y overall. It w a s d e s i g n e d as an a l m o s t purely physical system, d e c o u p l e d f r o m any mental elements o f m a r k e t p s y c h o l o g y :

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material w a s d u g u p or p u m p e d , processed, s h i p p e d a n d c o n s u m e d , according to an allocation scheme, u n d e r central control. T h e t e r m "market failure" s e e m s to fit the e n e r g y situation in t h e U n i t e d States. Free markets develop s o m e pernicious characteristics w h e n there are shortages o f k e y c o m m o d i t i e s . Specifically, situations in w h i c h c o n s u m e r s are in n o p o s i t i o n to bargain present p e r f e c t o p p o r t u n i t i e s for profiteering. D u r i n g W o r l d W a r II, t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s g o v e r n m e n t u n d e r s t o o d this a n d successfully rationed m a n y things, f r o m gasoline to bicycle parts. B u t that w a s a l o n g t i m e ago. S i n c e then, t h e inviolability o f free markets h a s b e c o m e an article o f faith. B e t h a t as it m a y ; as it turns out, free m a r k e t f u n d a m e n t a l i s m has h a d limited effects o n the all-but-assured o u t c o m e o f e c o n o m i c collapse. It has prevented the U n i t e d S t a t e s f r o m entering into l o n g - t e r m p r o d u c t i o n agreements w i t h energy p r o d u c e r s , a l l o w i n g its international c o m p e t i t o r s to divide u p m u c h o f t h e world's r e m a i n i n g energy reserves. B u t this is j u s t a n o t h e r e x a m p l e o f h o w t h e rest o f the w o r l d h a s f o u n d w a y s to b y p a s s t h e i d e o l o g y w h i c h the U n i t e d S t a t e s h a s tried to i m p o s e o n it. Entire b o o k s h e l v e s full o f b o o k s have b e e n d e v o t e d to the energy situation t h a t c o n f r o n t s the U n i t e d States, there to read for a n y o n e w h o w a n t s to delve deeply into this seriously depressing subject. H e r e , I will simply list s o m e o f the m o s t salient facts. T h e U S i m p o r t s three quarters o f its oil. O i l p r o d u c t i o n in the U S p e a k e d in 1970, a n d has b e e n declining ever since. Globally, c o n ventional oil p r o d u c t i o n appears to have p e a k e d in 2005. T h e w o r l d currently c o n s u m e s over f o u r units o f oil for each n e w unit it finds. M u c h o f this oil c o m e s f r o m ageing giant fields, such as G h a w a r in S a u d i A r a b i a , B u r g a n in K u w a i t , C a n t a r e l l in M e x i c o a n d D a q u i n g in C h i n a . T h e s e g i a n t fields are s h o w i n g very serious a n d s u d d e n declines, so that, for example, M e x i c o will shortly b e in no p o s i t i o n to c o n t i n u e e x p o r t i n g oil t o the U S . M o s t o f the world's t r a n s p o r t a t i o n infrastructure r u n s o n oil. E v e n if it c o u l d b e redesigned to r u n o n s o m e t h i n g else, the process o f replacing it w o u l d take decades a n d require fantastic a m o u n t s o f oil.

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T h e oil i n d u s t r y has invested heavily in new technology, resultg in m u c h better exploration a n d p r o d u c t i o n techniques. T h e ihanced exploration techniques have failed to reverse the trend ward fewer a n d smaller new finds. W h i l e enhanced p r o d u c t i o n chniques have increased t h e a m o u n t of extractable oil, they have so allowed reserves to be p u m p e d o u t at a m u c h faster rate, resultg in s u d d e n crashes in p r o d u c t i o n — like the 25 percent annual :cline recently experienced by Mexico's Cantarell — rather t h a n ntle declines. It is also notable t h a t the new recovery techniques e quite energy intensive, reducing the effective energy yield of the I they produce. Thus, the new technology resembles a treadmill, lowing the oil industry to r u n faster a n d faster while standing ill. M o s t of the remaining oil reserves are in countries that have owing economies a n d increasing internal oil d e m a n d . M o s t of ese countries are past their internal oil p r o d u c t i o n peaks a n d d o >t wish to increase oil p r o d u c t i o n even w h e n they can. R a t h e r an exporting m o r e energy, they w o u l d prefer to use that energy r domestic industry a n d c o n s u m p t i o n . Saudi Arabia is n o w buildg refineries a n d chemical factories. T h e f u t u r e of Saudi Arabia is >t oil; it is plastics. Russia is t h e world's largest oil producer b u t is JO past its peak and, with its economy booming, looks to reducing [ exports. T h e U n i t e d States has consistently d e m o n s t r a t e d its inability to fluence this state of affairs a n d its influence has been eroding even :th such former allies as Kuwait. T h e military option has already en exercised in Iraq, with disastrous consequences. However, it is II quite possible t h a t the U n i t e d States will choose to engage in m e futile new conflict, for instance with Iran. Such a move would in keeping with the d i c t u m ' T f you can't solve a problem, enlarge ' It would also provide political cover for a variety of domestic easures, f r o m gasoline rationing to the imposition of martial law d the crushing of political dissent. T h e p r o d u c t i o n of natural gas — the other clean, high-grade urce of energy — is long past its peak in N o r t h America. S o far,

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serious gas supply p r o b l e m s have b e e n averted b y s h u t t i n g d o w n local m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d replacing it w i t h i m p o r t s . T h i s process has largely r u n its course. G a s pipelines c a n n o t span oceans, a n d a sufficiently

large liquefied natural gas t a n k e r fleet is n o t an affordable

o p t i o n . T h u s , serious natural gas supply p r o b l e m s are directly a h e a d for the U S . N a t u r a l gas is u s e d for heat a n d for p e a k l o a d electric generation t h r o u g h o u t m u c h o f the U S , a n d so the e x p e c t e d result is w i n t e r f r e e z e - o u t s a n d s u m m e r b l a c k - o u t s . C o a l w a s previously t h o u g h t to b e plentiful, b u t the reserve n u m b e r s appear to have been vastly overstated. M o s t o f the h i g h grade, energy-rich d e p o s i t s have already b e e n excavated a n d b u r n e d , leaving b e h i n d a lot o f l o w e r - g r a d e b r o w n coal. C o a l can be converted to synthetic oil, using a m e t h o d p i o n e e r e d in N a z i G e r m a n y , w h i c h can b e u s e d as a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n fuel o f last resort, b u t it is a p o o r replacement for liquid fuels because a lot o f energy is lost in the conversion process. C o a l is u s e d t o generate h a l f t h e electricity in the U n i t e d States. It is the dirtiest o f fuels, c o n t r i b u t i n g three t i m e s m o r e c a r b o n dioxide per u n i t o f energy t h a n natural gas, causing acid rain a n d the acidification o f t h e oceans. Biofuels, w h i c h are s o m e t i m e s t o u t e d as a solution, are a w a y o f using f a r m l a n d to g r o w f u e l rather than f o o d . T h e i r p r o d u c t i o n is m a k i n g f o o d u n a f f o r d a b l e for the p o o r e r parts o f the p o p u l a t i o n , causing malnutrition, w h i l e enriching certain farmers t h r o u g h federal subsidies a n d accelerating the depletion o f topsoil. T h e y will never replace m o r e t h a n a small percentage o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n fuels. T h e b o o m in p a l m oil for biodiesel a n d sugar cane for e t h a n o l prod u c t i o n will accelerate t h e disappearance o f the world's r e m a i n i n g tropical rainforests. M o s t o t h e r alternative sources o f energy — solar, w i n d , water, nuclear, garbage incineration, gerbil w h e e l s or h o t air p i p e d in directly f r o m W a s h i n g t o n — will h a v e o n l y a small overall i m p a c t . T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s will n o t have e n o u g h energy to keep its e c o n o m y f u n c t i o n i n g . T h e r e is also neither e n o u g h energy, n o r e n o u g h time, to b u i l d a different, m o r e energy-efficient economy, o n the s a m e scale as t h e present one. T h e best alternative b y far is to reduce e n e r g y

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c o n s u m p t i o n b y progressively s h u t t i n g d o w n all non-vital parts o f the economy, w h i l e c o m m a n d e e r i n g a n d redistributing resources to u n i f o r m l y provide for the w e l f a r e o f t h e entire p o p u l a t i o n . S i n c e s u c h a revolution is n o t politically possible, the only r e m a i n i n g alternative is e c o n o m i c a n d political collapse. INEVITABLE CONCLUSION M y conclusion is that t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w a s m u c h better prepared for e c o n o m i c collapse than is the U n i t e d States. A m e r i c a s e c o n o m y will evaporate like t h e m o r n i n g mist. Its p o p u l a t i o n will be s t r a n d e d w h e r e v e r t h e y h a p p e n to be, a n d will w a i t to b e rescued. T h e y will expect to b e fed, sheltered, d e f e n d e d f r o m each o t h e r and told w h a t to d o . M a n y o f t h e m will b e angry and disoriented and l o o k for s o m e o n e to blame. M a n y o t h e r s k n o w exactly w h o to blame, a n d will g o o n a rampage to avenge age-old injustices. It is i m p o r t a n t to u n d e r s t a n d that the S o v i e t U n i o n achieved collapse-preparedness inadvertently, and n o t because o f the success o f s o m e crash p r o g r a m . E c o n o m i c collapse has a w a y o f t u r n i n g econ o m i c negatives into positives. T h e last t h i n g w e w a n t is a perfectly f u n c t i o n i n g , g r o w i n g , p r o s p e r o u s e c o n o m y that s u d d e n l y collapses o n e day a n d leaves e v e r y b o d y in the lurch. Luckily, there is little p r o s p e c t o f such a scenario. W h a t w e are seeing instead is a steady erosion o f quality o f life for m o s t people. T h e m a s s m e d i a d o e s its best to o b s c u r e or distract f r o m it, b u t a n y o n e w h o w i s h e s to see t h r o u g h this thin veil o f denial can d o so. A n d a l t h o u g h the U S is unlikely to achieve the s a m e h i g h level o f collapse-preparedness as a w h o l e , individuals a n d small g r o u p s w i t h i n it can take a variety o f steps to close t h e collapse gap, setting themselves u p to suffer t h r o u g h c i r c u m s t a n c e s only s o m e w h a t m o r e d i s m a l t h a n t h o s e that c o n f r o n t e d the citizens o f the f o r m e r S o v i e t U n i o n .

C H A P T E R

4

COLLHPSE miTIGHTIOII

D

ire circumstances

provide

the

impetus

to

Do

Something.

For example, the need to d o s o m e t h i n g a b o u t 9/11 gave us the

q u a g m i r e s in A f g h a n i s t a n ( w h e r e the size o f the o p i u m harvest is a b o u t the only t h i n g left to b r a g a b o u t ) a n d Iraq ( w h e r e there are n o such b r i g h t spots). H o w t h e imperative to D o S o m e t h i n g o p erates in the absence o f any w o r k a b l e ideas will b e discussed later on, u n d e r B o o n d o g g l e s . For now, let the f o c u s b e o n the subject o f this action — the first p e r s o n plural personal p r o n o u n "we" —

for

it is inevitably W e w h o are e x h o r t e d to D o S o m e t h i n g , n o t "they," nor "you," nor m e m b e r s o f the target c o n s t i t u e n c y — t h o s e a b o u t w h o m S o m e t h i n g M u s t B e D o n e . N o r m a l l y , t h e y are considered part o f t h e p r o b l e m , n o t part o f t h e solution. S o m e w h a t counterintuitively, then, the scope o f the p r o b l e m generally d e t e r m i n e s the scope o f t h e p r o n o u n "we." I f the p r o b l e m is local, such as the prevalence o f d r u g trafficking a n d p r o s t i t u t i o n o n a certain street corner, the target c o n s t i t u e n c y includes the easily identifiable b u t politically voiceless j u n k i e s , p i m p s a n d w h o r e s , a n d W e — the activist p a r t o f the c o m m u n i t y in c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h local officials — m i g h t have s o m e effectiveness in relocating these u n d e sirable activities to a less fashionable street corner. I f the p r o b l e m is global o z o n e depletion, t h e n W e are the fairly small c o m m u n i t y o f chemical m a n u f a c t u r e r s t h a t p r o d u c e refrigerants a n d other C F C s , t o g e t h e r w i t h the g o v e r n m e n t s that regulate t h e m , m a k i n g

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the M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l that p h a s e d o u t C F C s a matter o f navigating international bureaucracy. B u t m o s t other p r o b l e m s are n o t so easy. W h e n it c o m e s to g r e e n h o u s e gas emissions, the target constituency ranges f r o m the o w n e r o f a l u x u r y m e g a - y a c h t that b u r n s a d o z e n gallons to the mile, to the equally conscientious decaying m o s s in the t h a w i n g t u n d r a , a n d W e , the sensitive environmentalist moviegoers, are unlikely to p e r s u a d e either o f t h e m to change their global-warming ways. T h e biggest p r o b l e m facing the earth is h u m a n o v e r p o p u l a t i o n , a n d here the target c o n s t i t u e n c y is p e o p l e w h o w a n t to have children, w h o are politically unassailable. T h e y d o n o t even have to speak o u t in favor o f f u r t h e r o v e r p o p u l a t i o n . A l l they have to d o is c o n t i n u e h a v i n g babies, a n d W e , the g r o w n - u p babies, can barely b r i n g ourselves to m e n t i o n the p r o b l e m , never m i n d d o a n y t h i n g a b o u t it. A related p r o b l e m is the w a v e o f extinction s w e e p i n g the earth d u e to habitat d e s t r u c t i o n : t h e planet is b e i n g carved u p to a c c o m m o d a t e m o r e babies. H e r e , it is a p o p u l a r i t y contest b e t w e e n h u m a n babies a n d animals, m a n y o f w h i c h are unpersonable, nameless invertebrates. T h e s e countless e n d a n g e r e d species can never parallel the political force o f the g o o - g o o s a n d p o o p s o f a single h u m a n infant, a l t h o u g h the cutest a n d furriest ones m i g h t b e g r a n t e d a n e w life as the infant's p l u s h toys. T h i s p l a n e t - d e v o u r i n g h o m u n c u l u s is n o w a force o f nature, a weedy, invasive species g o i n g t h r o u g h its natural cycle o f o v e r s h o o t a n d die-off, a n d W e w h o m u s t D o S o m e t h i n g a b o u t it are really j u s t its g o n a d s g o i n g t h r o u g h their involuntary spasms. W h e n e v e r w e c o n f r o n t a p r o b l e m for w h i c h no political solution exists, the inevitable result is an u n c o m f o r t a b l e impasse filled w i t h a w k w a r d , self-censored chatter. D u r i n g t h e S o v i e t establishment's fast slide t o w a r d dissolution, G o r b a c h e v ' s glasnost

campaign

unleashed a torrent o f w o r d s . In a sort o f n a t i o n - w i d e t a l k i n g cure, m a n y previously t a b o o subjects c o u l d b e b r o a c h e d in public, a n d ' m a n y i m p o r t a n t p r o b l e m s c o u l d suddenly b e discussed. A n i m p o r t a n t caveat still applied: the p r o b l e m s always h a d to b e cast as "specific difficulties," or "singular p r o b l e m s " a n d never as a small

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piece w i t h i n t h e larger mosaic o f o b v i o u s s y s t e m - w i d e failure. T h e spell w a s really only b r o k e n b y Yeltsin, w h e n , in the a f t e r m a t h o f the failed putsch,

h e forcefully affixed the prefix " f o r m e r " to the t e r m

" S o v i e t Union." A t t h a t p o i n t , old, p r o - S o v i e t , n o w irrelevant standards o f patriotic t h o u g h t a n d b e h a v i o r s u d d e n l y b e c a m e ridicu-' lous — the d o m a i n o f h a l f - c r a z e d , destitute pensioners, p a r a d i n g w i t h portraits o f L e n i n a n d Stalin. B y then, fear o f political reprisals h a d already f a d e d into history, b u t o l d habits die hard, a n d it t o o k years for p e o p l e s t h i n k i n g t o catch u p w i t h the new, p o s t - i m p e r i a l reality. It w a s n o t an easy transition, a n d m a n y r e m a i n e d e m b i t t e r e d for life. In t o d a y s A m e r i c a , it is also quite possible to talk a b o u t separate difficulties a n d singular p r o b l e m s , p r o v i d e d they are k e p t separate a n d singular a n d served u p u n d e r a patriotic sauce w i t h a dash o f opt i m i s m o n t o p . It is quite possible to refer to depressed areas, to the g r o w i n g underclass a n d even to h u m a n rights abuses. It is, however, n o t allowable to refer t o A m e r i c a as a chronically depressed country, an increasingly lower-class a n d i m p o v e r i s h e d c o u n t r y or a c o u n t r y that fails to take care o f its citizens a n d o f t e n abuses t h e m . Yes, there are prisons w h e r e h e r o i n addicts are strapped to a chair w h i l e they g o t h r o u g h w i t h d r a w a l , a t r e a t m e n t so effective that s o m e o f t h e m have to b e carried o u t in b o d y bags later, b u t that, y o u see, is a specific difficulty, a singular p r o b l e m , if y o u will. B u t , n o no no, w e are a decent, f r e e d o m - l o v i n g c o u n t r y in spite o f such little p r o b l e m s . W e j u s t have a slight p r o b l e m w i t h the w a y w e all treat each o t h e r . . . and others. W e d i d recently invade a c o u n t r y that h a d p o s e d n o threat to u s a n d c a u s e d a b o u t a h a l f a million civilian deaths there, b u t n o n o no, w e are a peace-loving c o u n t r y ! T h a t is j u s t a specific difficulty w i t h o u r foreign policy, n o t a true reflection o f o u r national character ( w h i c h is to s q u i r m w h e n p r e s e n t e d w i t h u n p l e a s a n t facts a n d to roll o u r eyes w h e n s o m e o n e d r a w s general conclusions f r o m t h e m b a s e d o n a p r e p o n d e r a n c e o f evidence). W h e n it c o m e s to collapse mitigation, there is no one w h o will u n d e r t a k e an o r g a n i z e d effort to m a k e t h e collapse survivable, to save w h a t can b e saved and to avert t h e catastrophes that can still

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b e averted. W e w i l l all d o o u r best to delay or avert the collapse, possibly b r i n g i n g it o n s o o n e r a n d m a k i n g it w o r s e . C o n s t i t u t i o n ally incapable o f conceiving o f a f u t u r e that d o e s n o t include the system that sustains o u r public personae, w e will prattle o n a b o u t a b r i g h t f u t u r e for t h e c o u n t r y for as l o n g as there is e n o u g h electricity to p o w e r t h e video c a m e r a that is p o i n t e d at us. G o r b a c h e v ' s perestroika

is an e x a m p l e o f j u s t such an effort at self-delusion: h e gave

speeches that ran to several h o u r s , d e v o t e d to mystical entities such as the "socialist marketplace." H e only p a u s e d to d r i n k water — cop i o u s a m o u n t s o f it, it s e e m e d — causing p e o p l e to w o n d e r w h e t h e r there w a s a c h a m b e r p o t inside his p o d i u m . T h e r e are f e w g r o u n d s for o p t i m i s m w h e n it c o m e s to o r g a n i z ing a timely a n d successful effort at collapse mitigation. N e v e r t h e l e s s , miracles d o h a p p e n . F o r instance, in spite o f inadequate preparation, in t h e a f t e r m a t h o f the S o v i e t collapse, n o n e o f t h e h i g h - g r a d e nuclear fissile material has e n d e d u p in the h a n d s o f terrorists, a n d a l t h o u g h there w e r e a f e w reports o f radiation leaks, n o t h i n g h a p p e n e d that a p p r o a c h e d the scale o f the C h e r n o b y l catastrophe. In o t h e r w a y s , t h e miserable experience h a d b y all w a s m i t i g a t e d b y the very nature o f t h e S o v i e t system, as I described in C h a p t e r 3. N o such a u t o m a t i c w i n d f a l l s are d u e t h e U n i t e d States; here, collapse preparation, if any, is likely to b e t h e result o f an overdue, h a p h a z ardly o r g a n i z e d a n d h a s t y effort. REASONABLE

EXPECTATIONS

I f the entire c o u n t r y w e r e to e m b r a c e the n o t i o n that collapse is inevitable and that it m u s t prepare for it, a n e w political p a r t y m i g h t b e f o r m e d : the C o l l a p s e Party. I f this party w e r e to succeed in u p e n d ing the t w o - p a r t y m o n o p o l y a n d f o r m i n g a m a j o r i t y g o v e r n m e n t , this g o v e r n m e n t w o u l d t h e n w a n t t o i m p l e m e n t a crash p r o g r a m to d i s m a n t l e institutions that have no future, create n e w ones that are d e s i g n e d t o survive collapse a n d save w h a t e v e r can b e saved. If, further, this crash p r o g r a m s o m e h o w succeeded, in spite o f constitutional limitations o n g o v e r n m e n t action, a n d in spite o f the inevitable lack o f financial resources for such an a m b i t i o u s u n d e r t a k i n g , >

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T h e y are o f t e n resupplied b y private contractors, w h o s e p r o c u r e m e n t operations rely o n the d o m e s t i c civilian economy. A s l o n g as the e c o n o m y is intact, t h e y can b r i n g three flavors o f ice cream to an a i r - c o n d i t i o n e d tent in t h e m i d d l e o f a desert, b u t o n c e the e c o n o m y collapses, they will collapse w i t h it, a n d the military m a y t u r n o u t to lack even the resources to t r u c k in water. O v e r s e a s military bases s h o u l d b e d i s m a n t l e d a n d the t r o o p s repatriated. I w o u l d like to see the h u g e p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n w h i t t l e d a w a y in a controlled manner, ahead o f time, instead o f in a chaotic general amnesty. S u c h an a m n e s t y will have to h a p p e n as a m a t t e r o f course, once the resources that sustain the p r i s o n system stop flowing. T h e scenario to avoid is o n e in w h i c h , in the m i d s t o f general chaos, the entire p o p u l a t i o n o f prisoners is released en masse and, w i t h n o other resources available to t h e m , they start plying their various criminal trades. Paroling t h e non-violent, s h o r t e n i n g sentences, d e c r i m i n a l i z i n g drugs, a n d p r o v i d i n g r o o m a n d b o a r d to form e r inmates, are all reasonable steps to take to p r e v e n t a crime wave o f staggering p r o p o r t i o n s o n c e t h e criminal j u s t i c e system finally shuts d o w n . Lastly, I t h i n k that this farce w i t h debts that will never b e rep a i d h a s g o n e o n l o n g e n o u g h . C o l l a t e r a l i z e d d e b t will evaporate once the value o f the collateral is t o o l o w to secure the debt: if the h o u s e has n o water, c a n n o t b e lit, h e a t e d or reached b y transportation, its value is effectively zero, a n d so is the value o f the mortgage. N o n - c o l l a t e r a l i z e d debt, such as credit card d e b t in the p o s t - b a n k r u p t c y - r e f o r m era, is secured by the threat o f force — be it b r e a k i n g legs or g a r n e r i n g w a g e s — a n d even s u c h measures b r i n g d i m i n i s h i n g returns in a collapsing economy. W i p i n g the slate clean a h e a d o f t i m e will give society s o m e t i m e to readjust to the n e w reality. P e r h a p s m o s t importantly, b y canceling debts b e f o r e they b e c o m e unrepayable, it m a y b e possible to prevent the current system

—

o n e o f i n d e n t u r e d servitude b a s e d o n d e b t — f r o m evolving into a system o f p e r m a n e n t servitude b a s e d o n force: a n e w A m e r i c a n slavery. I r e m a i n optimistic that the forces o f chaos w i l l prevent such a system f r o m b e c o m i n g entrenched; nevertheless, it m i g h t

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b e p r u d e n t to take s o m e measures to m a k e such an o u t c o m e even less likely. POLITICAL SOLUTIONS Before, d u r i n g a n d i m m e d i a t e l y after the S o v i e t collapse, there w a s ' a great deal o f political activity b y g r o u p s w e m i g h t regard as p r o gressive: liberal, environmentalist, p r o - d e m o c r a c y reformers. T h e s e g r e w o u t o f the dissident m o v e m e n t s o f the S o v i e t era a n d m a d e quite a significant i m p a c t for a time. A d e c a d e later "democracy" a n d "liberalism" are generally c o n s i d e r e d dirty w o r d s in Russia, c o m m o n l y associated w i t h exploitation o f R u s s i a by foreigners a n d other rot. T h e R u s s i a n state is centrist, w i t h authoritarian t e n d e n cies. M o s t Russians dislike a n d distrust their g o v e r n m e n t b u t are afraid o f weakness, a n d w a n t a s t r o n g h a n d at the h e l m . It is easy t o see w h y political idealism fails to thrive in the m u r k y p o s t - c o l l a p s e political e n v i r o n m e n t . T h e r e is a s t r o n g pull to the right b y nationalists w h o w a n t to find scapegoats (inevitably, foreigners a n d ethnic minorities), a s t r o n g p u l l to t h e center by m e m bers o f the ancien regime t r y i n g to h o l d o n to r e m n a n t s o f their power, a n d a great u p w e l l i n g o f indecision, c o n f u s i o n and inconclusive debate o n the left b y t h o s e t r y i n g to d o g o o d a n d failing to d o anything. S o m e t i m e s the liberals get a chance to try an e x p e r i m e n t or t w o . Yegor G a i d a r g o t to try s o m e liberal e c o n o m i c reforms as t h e P r i m e M i n i s t e r in the p o s t - S o v i e t g o v e r n m e n t o f Boris Yeltsin, H e is a tragicomic figure, and m a n y R u s s i a n s n o w cringe w h e n rem e m b e r i n g his efforts (and t o b e fair, w e don't even k n o w h o w helpful or d a m a g i n g his r e f o r m s m i g h t have been, since m o s t o f t h e m w e r e never i m p l e m e n t e d ) . Liberals, reformists a n d progressives in the U n i t e d States, w h e t h e r self-styled or so labeled, have h a d a h a r d t i m e i m p l e m e n t i n g their a g e n d a . E v e n their f e w h a r d - w o n victories, such as S o c i a l Security, m a y get d i s m a n t l e d . E v e n w h e n they m a n a g e d to elect a president m o r e to their liking, the effects were, b y W e s t e r n standards, reactionary. T h e r e w a s the C a r t e r doctrine, a c c o r d i n g to w h i c h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s will p r o t e c t its access to oil by military

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aggression i f necessary. T h e r e w a s also Clinton's welfare r e f o r m , w h i c h forced single m o t h e r s to w o r k menial j o b s w h i l e placing their children in s u b s t a n d a r d daycare. P e o p l e in the U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d the S o v i e t U n i o n have h a d b r o a d l y similar attitudes t o w a r d politics. In the U S , this is o f t e n referred to as "voter apathy," b u t it m i g h t b e m o r e accurately described as n o n - v o t e r indifference. T h e S o v i e t U n i o n h a d a single, entrenched, systemically c o r r u p t political party, w h i c h held a m o n o p o l y o n p o w e r . T h e U S h a s t w o entrenched, systemically c o r r u p t political parties, w h o s e p o s i t i o n s are o f t e n indistinguishable a n d w h i c h t o g e t h e r h o l d a m o n o p o l y o n p o w e r . In either case, there is, or was, a single g o v e r n i n g elite, b u t in the U n i t e d S t a t e s it o r g a n i z e d itself into o p p o s i n g teams to m a k e its stranglehold o n p o w e r seem m o r e sportsmanlike. In t h e U S , there is an i n d u s t r y o f political c o m m e n t a t o r s a n d p u n d i t s w h i c h is d e v o t e d to i n f l a m i n g political passions as m u c h as possible, especially b e f o r e elections. T h i s is similar to w h a t sports w r i t e r s a n d c o m m e n t a t o r s d o to d r a w attention to their g a m e . It seems that the m a i n force b e h i n d political discourse in the U S is b o r e d o m : o n e can chat a b o u t the weather, one's j o b , one's m o r t g a g e a n d h o w it relates to current a n d p r o j e c t e d p r o p e r t y values, cars a n d the traffic situation, s p o r t s and, far b e h i n d sports, politics. In an effort t o m a k e p e o p l e p a y attention, m o s t o f the issues t r o t t e d o u t b e f o r e t h e electorate p e r t a i n to r e p r o d u c t i o n : abortion, birth control, stem cell research a n d similar small bits o f social p o l i c y are b a n d i e d a b o u t rather than settled, simply because they get g o o d ratings. " B o r i n g " b u t vitally i m p o r t a n t strategic issues s u c h as sustainable d e v e l o p m e n t , e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n a n d e n e r g y p o l i c y are studiously avoided. A l t h o u g h p e o p l e o f t e n b e m o a n political apathy as if it w e r e a grave social ill, it s e e m s to m e that this is j u s t as it s h o u l d be. W h y s h o u l d essentially p o w e r l e s s p e o p l e w a n t to engage in a h u m i l i a t i n g farce d e s i g n e d to d e m o n s t r a t e the legitimacy o f those w h o w i e l d the p o w e r ? In S o v i e t - e r a R u s s i a , intelligent p e o p l e d i d their best to ignore t h e C o m m u n i s t s : p a y i n g attention to t h e m , w h e t h e r t h r o u g h

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criticism or praise, w o u l d o n l y serve to give t h e m c o m f o r t a n d enc o u r a g e m e n t , m a k i n g t h e m feel as if they mattered. W h y s h o u l d A m e r i c a n s w a n t to act any differently w i t h regard to the R e p u b l i c a n s a n d t h e D e m o c r a t s ! For love o f d o n k e y s a n d elephants? PRIVATE SECTOR SOLUTIONS C e r t a i n S o v i e t state enterprises w e r e basically states w i t h i n states. T h e y controlled w h a t a m o u n t e d to an entire e c o n o m i c system a n d c o u l d go o n even w i t h o u t the larger economy. T h e y k e p t to this arr a n g e m e n t even after they w e r e privatized. T h e y drove W e s t e r n m a n a g e m e n t consultants m a d w i t h their endless kindergartens, retirement h o m e s , laundries, clinics a n d vacation resorts. T h e s e weren't part o f their core competency, y o u see. T h e y n e e d e d to divest a n d streamline their operations. T h e W e s t e r n m a n a g e m e n t g u r u s o v e r l o o k e d the m o s t i m p o r t a n t t h i n g : the core c o m p e t e n c y o f these enterprises lay in their ability t o survive e c o n o m i c collapse. M a y b e t h e y o u n g geniuses at G o o g l e can w r a p their heads a r o u n d this one, b u t I d o u b t that their s t o c k h o l d e r s will. T o m a k e itself collapse-proof, a c o m p a n y w o u l d need to f o l l o w a strategy that is antithetical t o h o w a business is s u p p o s e d to operate. It w o u l d have to consciously eliminate suppliers, cancel o u t s o u r c i n g arrangements a n d m o v e all p r o d u c t i o n a n d operations in-house. It w o u l d t h e n need to s h r u g o f f investors, t a k i n g the c o m p a n y private if it is public, t h u s eliminating the need to generate a profit. Lastly it w o u l d n e e d t o eliminate t h e n e e d for c u s t o m e r s a n d for cash flow, a d a p t i n g the m o d e o f only serving its o w n employees. W i t h i n the c o n t e x t o f a collapsing economy, this w o u l d require the c o m p a n y to diversify its operation, to include mining, m a n u f a c t u r i n g , farming, transportation, h o u s i n g (including retirement h o m e s ) , health care, education, security, a n d e n t e r t a i n m e n t —

to p r o v i d e e v e r y t h i n g

that its w o r k force m i g h t require. P r o v i d e d all o f the previous steps w e r e carried o u t successfully, the c o m p a n y c o u l d t h e n c u t t h e w o r k w e e k d o w n to a n o m i n a l f e w h o u r s , p r o v i d e m o n t h - l o n g vacations, a n d lower t h e retirement age t o t h e mid-50s: a worker's paradise o n earth.

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T h e r e d o n o t appear to exist any c o m m e r c i a l entities in the U n i t e d S t a t e s that w o u l d b e capable o f f o l l o w i n g such a plan. T h e bigger entities that o w n a sufficient range o f facilities, b e they p u b lic, semi-public or private — the a r m e d forces, for instance, or t h e larger universities — are far t o o a d d i c t e d to b o t h public a n d private money, a n d have o u t s o u r c e d t o o m a n y f u n c t i o n s to b e able to d r a w t h e m i n - h o u s e in time. B u t an even bigger h u r d l e is psychological: there is n o t h i n g to force t h e required radical shift in t h i n k i n g . In the S o v i e t U n i o n it o c c u r r e d gradually, over generations, as the industrial b e h e m o t h s b e g o t b y central p l a n n i n g adjusted to the s h o r t c o m i n g s o f the same central p l a n n i n g system b y d r a w i n g in as m a n y s u p p o r t f u n c t i o n s as they c o u l d . T h e r e is n o m e c h a n i s m by w h i c h A m e r i c a n s can rep r o d u c e any o f the proverbial S o v i e t industrial c o n g l o m e r a t e s such as U r a l m a s h or G a z p r o m quickly. M o r e o v e r , there is no longer even the d o m e s t i c industrial base to s u p p o r t industrial operations o n such a massive scale: a lot o f the e q u i p m e n t a n d stock w o u l d have to b e i m p o r t e d , n e g a t i n g the premise. T h u s , w h i l e successful private sector solutions to collapse mitigation m i g h t n o t b e impossible, t h e y are very, very unlikely.

ACTIVISM AND APATHY C r i s i s - m i t i g a t i n g agendas for "us" to i m p l e m e n t , w h e t h e r they involve w a r s over access to resources, nuclear plant construction, w i n d f a r m s or h y d r o g e n dreams, are n o t likely to b e i m p l e m e n t e d , because t h i s ' w e " entity will n o longer b e f u n c t i o n a l . I f w e are n o t likely to b e able to i m p l e m e n t o u r agenda p r i o r to the collapse, then w h a t ever is left o f us is even less likely to d o so a f t e r w a r d . T h u s , there is little reason to o r g a n i z e politically in order to try to d o g o o d . B u t if y o u w a n t to prepare to take advantage o f a b a d situation — well, that's a different story! Politics has great potential for m a k i n g a b a d situation w o r s e . It can cause war, ethnic cleansing a n d g e n o c i d e . W h e n e v e r p e o p l e gather into political o r g a n i z a t i o n s , w h e t h e r voluntarily or forcibly, it is a sign o f trouble. I w a s at the annual m e e t i n g o f m y c o m m u n i t y

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g a r d e n recently a n d a m o n g the generally placid and shy g r o u p o f gardeners there w e r e a c o u p l e o f self-styled "activists." B e f o r e t o o long, o n e o f these w a s raising the q u e s t i o n o f expelling people. P e o p l e w h o don't s h o w u p for annual meetings a n d don't sign u p to d o cleaning a n d c o m p o s t i n g a n d so o n — w h y are t h e y a l l o w e d to h o l d o n to their plots? W e l l , s o m e o f t h e "rogue element" t h e activist w a s referring to consisted o f elderly R u s s i a n s w h o , d u e to their extensive experience w i t h such things d u r i n g the S o v i e t times, are exceedingly unlikely t o ever b e c o m p e l l e d to take part in c o m m u nal labor or sit t h r o u g h m e e t i n g s w i t h the collective. Frankly, they w o u l d prefer death. B u t t h e y also love to garden. T h e reason the "element" is a l l o w e d to exist in this particular c o m m u n i t y g a r d e n is because t h e w o m a n w h o runs the place all o w s t h e m to h o l d o n to their plots. It is her decision: she exercises leadership a n d she d o e s n o t engage in politics. S h e makes the gard e n f u n c t i o n , a n d allows the activists to m a k e their noise, once a year, w i t h n o ill effects. B u t i f the situation w e r e to c h a n g e and the k i t c h e n g a r d e n s u d d e n l y b e c a m e a source o f sustenance rather than a hobby, h o w l o n g w o u l d it take b e f o r e the activist e l e m e n t w o u l d start d e m a n d i n g m o r e p o w e r a n d asserting its authority? L e a d e r s h i p is certainly a h e l p f u l quality in a crisis, w h i c h is a particularly b a d t i m e for lengthy deliberations a n d debates. In any situation, s o m e p e o p l e are better e q u i p p e d to h a n d l e it t h a n others, a n d can help others b y giving t h e m directions. T h e y naturally acc u m u l a t e a certain a m o u n t o f p o w e r for themselves, a n d this is fine as l o n g as e n o u g h people benefit f r o m it, a n d as l o n g as n o b o d y is h a r m e d or oppressed. S u c h p e o p l e o f t e n s p o n t a n e o u s l y emerge in a crisis. A n equally u s e f u l quality in a crisis is apathy. T h e R u s s i a n p e o p l e are exceptionally patient: even in the w o r s t o f post-collapse times, they d i d n o t riot a n d there w e r e n o significant protests. T h e y c o p e d as best t h e y c o u l d . T h e safest g r o u p o f p e o p l e to b e w i t h in a crisis is one that d o e s n o t share s t r o n g ideological convictions, is n o t easily swayed by a r g u m e n t a n d d o e s n o t possess an overdeveloped, exclusive sense o f identity.

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C l u e l e s s b u s y b o d i e s w h o feel that t h e y m u s t D o S o m e t h i n g a n d can be s p u n a r o u n d b y any h a l f - w i t d e m a g o g u e are b a d e n o u g h , b u t the m o s t d a n g e r o u s g r o u p , a n d o n e to w a t c h o u t for a n d r u n f r o m , is a g r o u p o f political activists resolved to o r g a n i z e a n d p r o m o t e s o m e p r o g r a m or other. E v e n i f the p r o g r a m is benign, even i f it is beneficial, t h e p o l i t i c i z e d a p p r o a c h to solving it m i g h t n o t b e either. A s t h e saying goes, revolutions eat their children. T h e n t h e y t u r n o n everyone else. T h e life o f a refugee is a f o r m o f survival; stayi n g a n d fighting an o r g a n i z e d m o b generally is not.

B O O N D O G G L E S TO T H E R E S C U E ! E c o n o m i c collapse has a w a y o f t u r n i n g e c o n o m i c negatives into positives. It is n o t necessary for the U n i t e d S t a t e s to e m b r a c e the tenets o f c o m m a n d e c o n o m y a n d central p l a n n i n g to m a t c h the S o v i e t lackluster p e r f o r m a n c e in this area. W e have o u r o w n m e t h o d s that are w o r k i n g a l m o s t as well. I call t h e m " b o o n d o g g l e s . " T h e y are solutions to p r o b l e m s that result in m o r e severe p r o b l e m s t h a n those t h e y a t t e m p t to solve. Just l o o k a r o u n d a n d y o u will see b o o n d o g g l e s s p r o u t i n g u p e v e r y w h e r e , in every field o f e n d e a v o r : w e have military b o o n doggles like Iraq, financial b o o n d o g g l e s like the d o o m e d retirement system, medical b o o n d o g g l e s like private health insurance a n d legal b o o n d o g g l e s like the intellectual p r o p e r t y system. A t s o m e p o i n t , creating a n o t h e r b o o n d o g g l e b e c o m e s the preferred course o f action: since the o u t c o m e can b e predicted w i t h c o m p l e t e accuracy, there is little risk. P r o p o s i n g a solution that m i g h t w o r k runs the risk o f it n o t w o r k i n g . S o w h y not, as a m a t t e r o f policy, only p r o p o s e solutions that are guaranteed to simply create m o r e p r o b l e m s , f o r w h i c h f u r t h e r solutions can t h e n b e p r o p o s e d ? A t s o m e point, a b o o n d o g g l e event h o r i z o n is reached, like the light event h o r i z o n that exists at the surface o f a black hole. B e y o n d t h a t h o r i z o n , the only possible course o f action is to create m o r e b o o n d o g g l e s . T h e c o m b i n e d w e i g h t o f all these b o o n d o g g l e s is slowly b u t surely p u s h i n g us all d o w n . If it p u s h e s us d o w n far e n o u g h , then

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e c o n o m i c collapse, w h e n it arrives, will b e like falling o u t o f a g r o u n d - f l o o r w i n d o w . W e j u s t have to help this process along, or at least n o t interfere w i t h it. S o if s o m e b o d y c o m e s to y o u a n d says, "I w a n t to m a k e a b o o n d o g g l e t h a t runs o n h y d r o g e n " — by all m e a n s encourage h i m ! It's n o t as g o o d as a b o o n d o g g l e that b u r n s m o n e y directly, b u t it's a step in the right direction. O n c e y o u u n d e r s t a n d the principles involved, b o o n d o g g l i n g will c o m e naturally. L e t us w o r k t h r o u g h a sample p r o b l e m : there is n o longer e n o u g h gasoline to g o a r o u n d . A simple b u t effective solut i o n is to b a n the sale o f n e w cars, w i t h the exception o f certain fleet vehicles u s e d b y public services. First, older cars are overall m o r e energy-efficient t h a n n e w cars, because the massive a m o u n t o f energy that w e n t into m a n u f a c t u r i n g t h e m is m o r e highly a m o r t i z e d . S e c o n d , large e n e r g y savings accrue f r o m the s h u t d o w n o f an entire i n d u s t r y d e v o t e d to designing, building, m a r k e t i n g a n d financing n e w cars. T h i r d , older cars require m o r e maintenance, reinvigorati n g the local e c o n o m y at the e x p e n s e o f mainly foreign car m a n u f a c turers, a n d h e l p i n g reduce t h e trade deficit. Fourth, this will create a shortage o f cars, translating automatically into fewer, shorter car trips, a higher passenger o c c u p a n c y p e r trip a n d m o r e bicycling a n d use o f public transportation, saving even m o r e energy. Lastly, this w o u l d allow t h e car to b e m a d e obsolete o n a b o u t the same t i m e line as the oil i n d u s t r y that m a d e it possible. O f course, this solution d o e s n o t q u a l i f y as a b o o n d o g g l e , so it will n o t b e seriously considered. T h e p r o b l e m s it creates are t o o small, a n d they o f f e r t o o little s c o p e f o r creating f u r t h e r b o o n d o g gles. M o r e o v e r , i f this solution w o r k e d , t h e n e v e r y o n e w o u l d b e happily driving their slightly older cars, completely u n p r e p a r e d for s o m e inevitable, cataclysmic, e c o n o m y - c o l l a p s i n g event. It is better to i n t r o d u c e s o m e b o o n d o g g l e s , s u c h as c o r n - b a s e d e t h a n o l and coal-to-liquids conversion. E t h a n o l p r o d u c t i o n creates very little additional e n e r g y b u t it d o e s create s o m e fantastic p r o b l e m s for f u r t h e r b o o n d o g g l i n g : a shortage o f f o o d a n d higher f o o d prices, m a l n u t r i t i o n a m o n g the p o o r a n d inflation. It also reinforces a large existing b o o n d o g g l e : b y fiinneling resources to p e t r o c h e m i c a l - b a s e d

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agribusiness, w h i c h depletes a n d p o i s o n s the soil a n d has no f u t u r e in an age w h e n p e t r o c h e m i c a l s are scarce, it helps u n d e r m i n e f u t u r e f o o d security. C o a l - t o - l i q u i d s conversion offers similarly excellent o p p o r t u n i t i e s . B y a t t e m p t i n g to alleviate a shortage o f gasoline, it will cause a shortage o f coal, resulting in p o w e r outages a n d dramatically higher electricity rates. It will a d d m o r e c a r b o n dioxide to the atmosphere, accelerating global w a r m i n g . It will p r o b a b l y call for s o m e coal i m p o r t s , inefficiently m o v i n g a very b u l k y fuel f r o m far away, and fostering e n e r g y d e p e n d e n c e o n suppliers such as C h i n a a n d Russia, f u r t h e r e n h a n c i n g t h e trade deficit. A l o n g w i t h cornb a s e d ethanol, this excellent b o o n d o g g l e reinforces the e r r o n e o u s n o t i o n that A m e r i c a n s will b e able to c o n t i n u e to drive cars into the indefinite future, c o n d i t i o n i n g t h e m to clamor for m o r e b o o n doggles in place o f any real solutions. W i t h a bit o f practice, y o u s h o u l d b e able to c o m e u p w i t h s o m e excellent b o o n d o g g l e s o f y o u r o w n in y o u r o w n field o f endeavor. I f y o u r b o o n d o g g l e w o r k s , it will create m o r e p r o b l e m s for y o u to solve in the next r o u n d , as l o n g as there is t i m e for o n e m o r e r o u n d . A n d if there is not, t h e n y o u will b e w h e r e y o u w a n t to be: at a g r o u n d - f l o o r w i n d o w , staring into an abyss o f o n l y a couple o f feet. A l t h o u g h b y then it m a y feel unnatural, at that p o i n t y o u m u s t resist the t e m p t a tion to create yet a n o t h e r b o o n d o g g l e b y j u m p i n g d o w n head-first.

INVESTMENT

ADVICE

O f t e n w h e n p e o p l e hear a b o u t the possibility o f e c o n o m i c collapse, t h e y w o n d e r , " L e t ' s s u p p o s e that the U S e c o n o m y is g o i n g to collapse s o o n . W h y is this even w o r t h t h i n k i n g about, if there is n o t h i n g I can d o a b o u t it?" W e l l , I a m n o t a professional investment advisor, so I risk n o t h i n g b y m a k i n g s o m e suggestions for h o w o n e can c o l l a p s e - p r o o f one's i n v e s t m e n t portfolio. T h e nuclear scare gave rise to t h e a r c h e t y p e o f t h e A m e r i c a n Survivalist, h o l e d u p in t h e hills w i t h a b o m b shelter, a fantastic n u m b e r o f tins o f S p a m a n d an a s s o r t m e n t o f g u n s a n d plentiful a m m u n i t i o n w i t h w h i c h to fight o f f n e i g h b o r s f r o m f u r t h e r d o w n hill, or p e r h a p s j u s t to s h o o t beer cans w h e n the n e i g h b o r s c o m e

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over for beer a n d S P A M w i c h e s . A n d , o f course, an A m e r i c a n flag. T h i s sort o f survivalism is a b o u t as g o o d as b u r y i n g y o u r s e l f alive, I suppose. T h e idea o f stockpiling is n o t altogether bad, t h o u g h . S t o c k piling f o o d is, o f course, a rotten idea, literally. B u t certain m a n u f a c t u r e d items are certainly w o r t h considering. S u p p o s e y o u have a retirement account, or s o m e m u t u a l f u n d s . A n d s u p p o s e y o u feel reasonably certain that b y the t i m e y o u are scheduled to retire this won't b e e n o u g h to b u y a c u p o f coffee. A n d s u p p o s e y o u realize that y o u can currently b u y a lot o f g o o d s t u f f that has a l o n g shelf life and will b e n e e d e d a n d valuable far into the future. A n d suppose, further, that y o u have a small a m o u n t o f storage space: a f e w h u n d r e d square feet. N o w , w h a t are y o u g o i n g to do? S i t by a n d w a t c h y o u r savings evaporate? O r take the tax hit and invest in things that are n o t c o m p o s e d o f vapor? O n c e the cash m a c h i n e s are o u t o f cash, the stock ticker stops ticking a n d the retail chain breaks d o w n , p e o p l e will still have basic needs. T h e r e will b e flea markets a n d private barter a r r a n g e m e n t s to serve these needs, using w h a t e v e r local t o k e n o f exchange is available; b u n d l e s o f h u n d r e d dollar bills, bits o f g o l d chain, packs o f cigarettes or w h a t have y o u . It's n o t a b a d idea to o w n a f e w o f everyt h i n g y o u will need, b u t y o u s h o u l d also invest in things y o u will be able to trade for t h i n g s y o u will need. T h i n k o f c o n s u m e r necessities that require h i g h t e c h n o l o g y and have a l o n g shelf life. H e r e are s o m e suggestions to get y o u started: d r u g s (over-the-counter and prescription), razor blades, c o n d o m s . Toiletries, such as g o o d soap, will b e l u x u r y items. Fill s o m e s h i p p i n g containers, n i t r o g e n - p a c k t h e m so that n o t h i n g rusts or rots a n d store t h e m s o m e w h e r e . A f t e r t h e S o v i e t collapse, there swiftly appeared a category o f itinerant m e r c h a n t s w h o p r o v i d e d people w i t h access to i m p o r t e d p r o d u c t s . T o p r o c u r e their wares, these p e o p l e h a d to travel abroad, to P o l a n d , to C h i n a , to Turkey, o n trains, carrying g o o d s b a c k and f o r t h in their baggage. T h e y w o u l d exchange a suitcase o f R u s s i a n m a d e w a t c h e s for a suitcase o f other, m o r e u s e f u l c o n s u m e r p r o d ucts, such as s h a m p o o or razor blades. T h e y w o u l d have to grease

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the p a l m s o f officials along their route, a n d w e r e o f t e n r o b b e d . T h e r e w a s a p e r i o d o f t i m e w h e n these people, called chelnoki,

which

is R u s s i a n for "shuttles," w e r e the only source o f c o n s u m e r p r o d ucts. T h e p r o d u c t s w e r e o f t e n factory rejects, d a m a g e d or past their sell-by date, b u t this d i d n o t m a k e t h e m any less valuable. B a s e d o n their example, it is possible to p r e d i c t w h i c h i t e m s will b e in h i g h d e m a n d a n d to stockpile these items a h e a d o f time, as a h e d g e against e c o n o m i c collapse. N o t e that chelnoki

h a d intact e c o n o m i e s

to trade w i t h , accessible b y train — this is n o t g u a r a n t e e d to b e the case in the U S . A stockpile o f this sort, in a walkable, socially stable place, w h e r e y o u k n o w everybody, w h e r e y o u have s o m e close friends a n d s o m e family, w h e r e y o u o w n y o u r shelter a n d s o m e land free a n d clear, and w h e r e y o u can g r o w m o s t o f y o u r o w n f o o d a n d barter for the rest, s h o u l d enable y o u to survive e c o n o m i c collapse w i t h o u t t o o m u c h trouble. A n d , w h o k n o w s , m a y b e y o u will even find happiness there.

D o IT YOURSELF C e r t a i n types o f m a i n s t r e a m e c o n o m i c behavior are n o t p r u d e n t o n a personal level a n d are also c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e to b r i d g i n g the collapse gap. A n y b e h a v i o r that m i g h t result in c o n t i n u e d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a n d p r o s p e r i t y is c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e : the h i g h e r y o u j u m p , the h a r d e r y o u land. It is traumatic to g o f r o m h a v i n g a big retirem e n t f u n d to h a v i n g no retirement f u n d because o f a m a r k e t crash. It is also traumatic to g o f r o m a h i g h i n c o m e to little or no i n c o m e . If, o n t o p o f that, y o u have k e p t y o u r s e l f incredibly b u s y a n d suddenly have n o t h i n g to do, t h e n y o u will really b e in r o u g h shape. E c o n o m i c collapse is a b o u t the w o r s t possible t i m e for s o m e o n e to suffer a n e r v o u s b r e a k d o w n , yet this is w h a t o f t e n h a p p e n s . T h e p e o p l e w h o are m o s t at risk psychologically are successful m i d d l e aged m e n . W h e n their career is s u d d e n l y over, their savings g o n e a n d their p r o p e r t y worthless, m u c h o f their sense o f s e l f - w o r t h goes as well. T h e y t e n d to d r i n k themselves to death a n d c o m m i t suicide in d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e n u m b e r s . S i n c e they t e n d to b e the m o s t

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experienced a n d capable people, this is a staggering loss to society. T h e y w o u l d b e well-advised to cash o u t early and s p e n d t i m e learning h o w to redefine personal success in w a y s that are n o t critically d e p e n d e n t o n their c o n t i n u e d ability to p r o d u c e a n d c o n s u m e . I f the economy, a n d y o u r place w i t h i n it, are really i m p o r t a n t to y o u , y o u will b e really h u r t w h e n t h e y go away. Y o u can cultivate an attitude o f s t u d i e d indifference, b u t it has to b e m o r e than j u s t a conceit. Y o u have to develop the lifestyle, habits a n d physical stamina to b a c k it up. It takes a lot o f creativity a n d effort to p u t together a fulfilling existence o n the m a r g i n s o f society. A f t e r the collapse, these m a r g i n s m a y turn o u t to b e s o m e o f the best places to live.

C H A P T K R

5

S

o m e t i m e s , t h e socially proactive a p p r o a c h seems to be rather a

w a s t e o f time. R a t h e r t h a n a t t e m p t i n g to u n d e r t a k e the H e r -

culean task o f mitigating the u n m i t i g a t a b l e — a t t e m p t i n g to stop the w o r l d a n d p o i n t it in a different direction — it seems far better to t u r n i n w a r d a n d w o r k to t r a n s f o r m y o u r s e l f into s o m e o n e w h o m i g h t s t a n d a chance, given t h e world's a s s u m e d trajectory. M u c h o f this t r a n s f o r m a t i o n is psychological a n d involves letting g o o f m a n y n o t i o n s that w e have b e e n c o n d i t i o n e d to accept unquestioningly. S o m e o f it involves acquiring n e w skills a n d a different set o f habits. S o m e o f it is even physiological, c h a n g i n g one's b o d y to prepare it for a life that has far f e w e r creature c o m f o r t s a n d conveniences, w h i l e requiring far m o r e physical labor. It m u s t b e u n d e r s t o o d that n o t everyone is able to adapt. T h e r e are m a n y w h o are, even to their o w n m i n d , a s u m total o f their character flaws: take a w a y their b a d habits a n d w h a t w o u l d b e left o f t h e m except s o m e nameless fear? M a n y others, t h o u g h they m a y b e convinced that certain unpleasant changes are necessary, are unwilli n g to e n d u r e any unnecessary inconveniences or d i s c o m f o r t s until circumstances force t h e m to d o so, a n d ipso facto

will c h o o s e to re-

m a i n u n p r e p a r e d . Finally, there are p l e n t y o f those w h o , w h e t h e r b y choice or b y accident, have so e n c u m b e r e d themselves by their current living arrangement that t h e y have left themselves no m e a n s o f escape a n d no o p p o r t u n i t y for m a k i n g gradual changes. T h e s e , and

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m a n y others, are likely to have a m o s t unpleasant experience w h e n b r o u g h t face to face w i t h catastrophe. B u t if y o u d o have a m o d i c u m o f f r e e d o m a n d the ability to change course, consider the f o l l o w i n g t w o points. First, y o u are that strangest i n h a b i t a n t o f the animal k i n g d o m — an animal that can evolve w i t h o u t u n d e r g o i n g genetic m u t a t i o n . Y o u can evolve culturally. A n d since cultural m u t a t i o n s are never r a n d o m , y o u r evolution can b e fast. S e c o n d , y o u need n o t i n f o r m any other living t h i n g o f y o u r n e w status as a cultural m u t a n t . T o all o u t w a r d appearances, y o u can r e m a i n indistinguishable f r o m the rest o f the h e r d . B u t t h e space a n d t i m e in w h i c h y o u m o v e will n o longer b e the space a n d t i m e created a n d allotted b y society, b u t those that y o u have carved o u t for y o u r s e l f b y r e d u c i n g y o u r needs, e x p a n d i n g y o u r abilities a n d s h e d d i n g the habits, b o t h m e n t a l a n d physical, b y w h i c h others are enslaved. In order to adapt, y o u will n e e d plenty o f free time. G r a n t i n g y o u r s e l f this t i m e requires a leap o f faith: y o u have to a s s u m e that the f u t u r e has already arrived. Y o u r lying eyes will b e o f little help here, so shut t h e m tight. T h e old n o r m a l is that life will go o n j u s t like before. T h e n e w n o r m a l is that n o t h i n g will ever b e the same. Y o u r c o n s o l a t i o n is t h a t even if the n e w n o r m a l never arrives, y o u will b e w e l l a d a p t e d for that too.

Loss

OF " N O R M A L C Y "

A n early v i c t i m o f collapse is t h e sense o f normalcy. P e o p l e are initially s h o c k e d to find that it's missing, b u t quickly forget that s u c h a t h i n g ever existed, except for t h e o d d vague t w i n g e o f nostalgia. N o r m a l c y is n o t exactly normal: in an industrial economy, the sense o f n o r m a l c y is an artificial, m a n u f a c t u r e d item. W e m a y b e h u r t l i n g t o w a r d s e n v i r o n m e n t a l d o o m , and t h a n k fully never quite get there b e c a u s e o f resource depletion, but, in the m e a n t i m e , the lights are on, there is traffic o n the streets and, even if the lights g o o u t for a w h i l e d u e to a blackout, t h e y will b e b a c k o n in d u e course a n d the s h o p s will r e o p e n . Business as usual will resume. T h e s u m p t u o u s b u f f e t l u n c h will b e served o n time, so that

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t h e a s s e m b l e d luminaries can r e s u m e discussion o f m e a s u r e d steps w e all need to take to avert certain disaster. B u t the lunch is n o t served; t h e n the lights g o o u t . A t s o m e point, s o m e b o d y calls the w h o l e t h i n g a farce, a n d the luminaries a d j o u r n forever. In Russia, n o r m a l c y b r o k e d o w n in a series o f steps. First, p e o ple s t o p p e d b e i n g afraid to speak their m i n d . T h e n t h e y s t o p p e d t a k i n g the authorities seriously. Lastly, the authorities s t o p p e d taking each o t h e r seriously. In the final act, Yeltsin s t o o d o n t o p o f a R e d A r m y t a n k w i t h the R u s s i a n tricolor flag for a b a c k d r o p a n d s p o k e the w o r d s , " F o r m e r S o v i e t Union." In the S o v i e t U n i o n , as this t h i n g called n o r m a l c y w o r e thin d u e to t h e stalemate in A f g h a n i s t a n , the C h e r n o b y l disaster and general e c o n o m i c stagnation, it c o n t i n u e d to be enforced t h r o u g h careful m a n a g e m e n t o f the mass m e d i a well into the p e r i o d k n o w n as perestroika.

In the U n i t e d States, as the e c o n o m y fails to create

e n o u g h j o b s for several years in a row, and the entire c o u n t r y tilts t o w a r d s bankruptcy, business as usual continues to b e a top-selling p r o d u c t , or so w e are led to believe. A m e r i c a n n o r m a l c y circa 2005 s e e m e d as i m p r e g n a b l e as S o v i e t n o r m a l c y circa 1985. I f there is a difference b e t w e e n t h e S o v i e t a n d the A m e r i c a n a p p r o a c h e s to m a i n t a i n i n g a sense o f normalcy, it is this: the S o v i e t s tried to maintain it b y force, w h i l e the A m e r i c a n s ' superior a p p r o a c h is to maintain theirs t h r o u g h fear. Y o u t e n d to feel m o r e n o r m a l if y o u fear falling o f f y o u r p e r c h a n d cling to it for dear life t h a n if s o m e b o d y nails y o u r feet to it. M o r e to the p o i n t : in a c o n s u m e r society, a n y t h i n g that p u t s p e o p l e o f f their s h o p p i n g is dangerously disruptive, and all consumers sense this. A n y expression o f the truth a b o u t o u r lack o f p r o s p e c t s for c o n t i n u e d existence as a highly d e v e l o p e d , p r o s p e r o u s industrial society is disruptive to t h e c o n s u m e r i s t collective u n c o n scious, T h e r e is a h e r d instinct to reject it, a n d therefore it fails, n o t t h r o u g h any overt action, b u t by failing to t u r n a profit because it is unpopular. In spite o f this small difference in h o w n o r m a l c y is or w a s enforced, it w a s b r o u g h t d o w n , in the late S o v i e t U n i o n as in the

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c o n t e m p o r a r y U n i t e d States, t h r o u g h a l m o s t identical means, alt h o u g h w i t h different technology. In t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , there w a s s o m e t h i n g called samizdat,

or self-publishing: w i t h the help o f

m a n u a l t y p e w r i t e r s a n d c a r b o n paper, R u s s i a n dissidents m a n a g e d to circulate e n o u g h material to neutralize the effects o f enforced normalcy. In the c o n t e m p o r a r y U n i t e d States, w e have websites a n d bloggers: different technology, same difference. T h e s e are w r i t i n g s for w h i c h e n f o r c e d n o r m a l c y is n o longer the n o r m ; the n o r m is the t r u t h — or at least someone's earnest a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f it. S o w h a t h a s b e c o m e o f these S o v i e t mavericks, s o m e o f w h o m foretold the c o m i n g collapse w i t h reasonable accuracy? T o b e brief, they f a d e d f r o m view. B o t h tragically a n d ironically, t h o s e w h o bec o m e experts in explaining the faults o f the system a n d in p r e d i c t i n g the course o f its d e m i s e are very m u c h part o f t h e system. W h e n the system disappears, so d o e s their area o f expertise a n d their audience. P e o p l e stop intellectualizing their p r e d i c a m e n t a n d start t r y i n g to escape it — t h r o u g h d r i n k or d r u g s or creativity or c u n n i n g — b u t t h e y have n o t i m e for p o n d e r i n g t h e larger context.

SMELLING THE ROSES O n c e the e c o n o m y collapses, there is generally less to do, m a k i n g it a g o o d t i m e for the naturally idle a n d a b a d t i m e for t h o s e p r e d i s p o s e d to k e e p i n g busy. S o v i e t - e r a culture h a d r o o m for t w o types o f activity: normal, w h i c h generally m e a n t avoiding b r e a k i n g a sweat, a n d heroic. N o r m a l activity w a s expected, a n d there w a s never any reason to d o it h a r d e r t h a n expected. In fact, that sort o f t h i n g t e n d e d to b e f r o w n e d u p o n b y "the collective," or the r a n k a n d file. H e r o i c activity w a s celebrated, b u t n o t necessarily r e w a r d e d

financially.

R u s s i a n s t e n d to l o o k in b e m u s e d p u z z l e m e n t o n the A m e r i c a n c o m p u l s i o n to " w o r k hard a n d play hard." T h e t e r m "career" w a s in the S o v i e t days a pejorative t e r m — t h e attribute o f a "careerist" — s o m e o n e greedy, u n s c r u p u l o u s a n d overly "ambitious" (also a p e j o rative term). T e r m s like "success" a n d "achievement" w e r e very rarely applied o n a p e r s o n a l level, because they s o u n d e d o v e r w e e n i n g a n d p o m p o u s . T h e y w e r e reserved for b o m b a s t i c public p r o n o u n c e m e n t s

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a b o u t the great successes o f the S o v i e t people. N o t that positive personal characteristics d i d n o t exist: o n a p e r s o n a l level, respect w a s given to talent, professionalism, decency, s o m e t i m e s even creativity. B u t to a R u s s i a n " h a r d w o r k e r " s o u n d e d a lot like "fool." A collapsing e c o n o m y is especially h a r d o n t h o s e w h o are ac- ' c u s t o m e d to p r o m p t , c o u r t e o u s service. In the S o v i e t U n i o n , m o s t official service w a s r u d e and slow a n d involved s t a n d i n g in l o n g lines. M a n y o f the p r o d u c t s that w e r e in short supply c o u l d n o t b e o b t a i n e d even in this manner, a n d required s o m e t h i n g called blat: special, unofficial access or favor. T h e exchange o f personal favors w a s far m o r e i m p o r t a n t to the actual f u n c t i o n i n g o f the e c o n o m y than the exchange o f money. T o Russians, blat is almost a sacred t h i n g : a vital part o f culture t h a t h o l d s society together. It is also the only part o f the e c o n o m y t h a t is collapse-proof, and, as such, a valuable cultural adaptation. M o s t A m e r i c a n s have h e a r d o f c o m m u n i s m , and automatically believe that it is an apt description o f the S o v i e t system, even t h o u g h there w a s n o t h i n g particularly c o m m u n a l a b o u t a welfare state a n d a vast industrial e m p i r e r u n b y an elitist central p l a n n i n g bureaucracy. B u t very f e w o f t h e m have ever h e a r d o f the real operative "ism" that d o m i n a t e d S o v i e t life: "dofenism," w h i c h can b e loosely translated as "not giving a rat's ass." A l o t o f people, m o r e a n d m o r e d u r i n g the "stagnation" p e r i o d o f the 1980s, felt n o t h i n g b u t c o n t e m p t for the system, did w h a t little they h a d to d o to get b y (night w a t c h m a n a n d f u r n a c e stoker were favorite j o b s a m o n g the highly educated) a n d g o t all their pleasure f r o m their friends, f r o m their reading or f r o m nature. T h i s sort o f disposition m a y s e e m like a c o p - o u t , b u t w h e n there is a collapse o n the h o r i z o n , it w o r k s as psychological insurance: instead o f g o i n g t h r o u g h the a g o n i z i n g process o f losing a n d rediscovering one's identity in a post-collapse e n v i r o n m e n t , one c o u l d simply sit b a c k a n d w a t c h events u n f o l d . I f y o u are currently a "mover a n d shaker," o f things or p e o p l e or whatever, then collapse will surely c o m e as a s h o c k t o y o u , a n d it will take y o u a l o n g time, p e r h a p s forever, to find m o r e things to m o v e and shake to y o u r sat-

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isfaction. However, if your current occupation is as a keen observer of grass a n d trees, t h e n post-collapse you could take on something else that's useful, such as dismantling useless things. T h e ability to stop a n d smell the roses — to let it all go, to refuse to h a r b o r regrets or n u r t u r e grievances, to confine one's serious attention only to t h a t which is immediately necessary a n d not to worry too m u c h a b o u t the rest — is perhaps the one most critical to post-collapse survival. T h e m o s t psychologically devastated are usually the middle-aged breadwinners who, once they are n o longer gainfully employed, feel completely lost. D e t a c h m e n t a n d indifference can b e m o s t healing, provided they d o n o t become m o r b i d . It is good to take your sentimental nostalgia for w h a t once was, is, a n d will soon n o longer be, u p front, a n d get it over with. COMFORTS AND NECESSITIES

Economic progress creates a ratcheting effect, by which w h a t are at first comforts a n d conveniences gradually become necessities. For example m o s t Americans will tell you that owning a car is a necessity. But even clothing a n d shoes are, strictly speaking, n o t necessities: we evolved bipedal locomotion a n d ran a r o u n d the planet naked a n d barefoot for all b u t the last few t h o u s a n d years. M o s t of us still can, a n d some of us still enjoy doing so when we can. M o s t Americans will also tell you t h a t things like i n d o o r r u n n i n g water, flush toilets, central heating a n d o n - d e m a n d h o t water are necessities. In fact, they are luxuries. T r u e necessities are those few items f o u n d at the base of Maslow's necessity hierarchy: oxygen, water a n d food, in t h a t order. T h e order is d e t e r m i n e d by seeing h o w long someone can stay alive w h e n deprived of any of these: a few m i n u t e s for oxygen; a few days for water; a few weeks for f o o d . These are followed by n o n necessities such as shelter, companionship, opportunities for sexual release a n d meaningful activities, such as exercise, play or work. M o s t people can survive w i t h o u t these for m o n t h s , p e r h a p s years; I even k n o w some people w h o have survived for their entire lifetime w i t h o u t work. Cars, water heaters a n d flush toilets are not anywhere

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on this list. Sanitation is i m p o r t a n t for avoiding disease, b u t there are many other ways to achieve this t h a n diluting excrement with drinking water a n d flushing it d o w n a sewer. T h e p r o b l e m with the luxuries t h a t are considered necessities is t h a t those w h o have come to consider t h e m necessities, w h e n they are suddenly deprived of t h e m , become preoccupied by an overwhelming feeling of unwellness, m a k i n g t h e m p o o r company for a time. W h e n I was in St. Petersburg in the s u m m e r of 1995, there was n o r u n n i n g h o t water in m u c h of the city. T h e exceptions were a few a p a r t m e n t s in the old parts of the city, which h a d antique inline gas water heaters t h a t p r o d u c e d a trickle of w a r m shower water. A t the time, I was renting a r o o m in o n e such a p a r t m e n t a n d people w o u l d come over to visit me, b u t really j u s t to take a h o t shower. T h e Russians did it for the luxury; the rest of the time, they showered in cold water, w e n t t o a public bath (a venerable institution, f o u n d in m a n y countries, Russia included), or h a d a periodic splash in a washbasin t h a t they filled f r o m a kettle. T h e visiting Americans did it to get back to feeling n o r m a l again. C o n d i t i o n e d to p e r f o r m a certain daily ablution, w h e n deprived of it they itched, were offended by their o w n smell a n d h a d trouble holding their o w n a r o u n d other people. T u r n i n g the comfort-necessity dichotomy completely around, beyond the first three (air, water, food), the only true necessity for survival is discomfort. Deprived of discomfort, o u r bodies t u r n into a tender, marshmallowy mess. T o shed a false necessity, it is necessary to e n d u r e discomfort for a time — sometimes m o n t h s or years. T o eliminate the need for shoes, you need to go barefoot a n d e n d u r e the pain a n d t h e blisters until calluses develop a n d your gait reverts to its original u n s h o d design — although your toes, stunted a n d d e f o r m e d by a lifetime of cruel footwear, may never regain their full dirt-gripping power. To eliminate the need for w a r m clothing, you need to underdress for t h e weather, shivering as needed until your b o d y improves its capacity for non-shivering thermogenesis by developing layers of vascularized, b r o w n fat t h a t can directly generate heat. T o eliminate t h e need for washing, you need to stop washing

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until the b o d y stops constantly re-secreting the protective layer of oil t h a t soap constantly washes away. This is best d o n e away f r o m other people. T o eliminate the need for three meals a day, you habitually exert yourself for long periods of t i m e while fasting, a n d only let yourself eat afterwards, forcing your b o d y to start b u r n i n g fat. A t first, it is reluctant t o d o so, because you have to convince it t h a t you really are starving, b u t once it does, you will have lots of energy o n d e m a n d . T o eliminate the need for transportation, you need to cover significant distances o n foot, carrying loads, until your b o d y adjusts by developing denser bone, thicker cartilage, stronger muscles, a n d a m o r e powerful cardiovascular system. M i n d you, there is n o t h i n g w r o n g with comforts, a n d even with luxuries. Bicycling is better t h a n walking. Collecting rainwater a n d using a solar water heater for showers is better t h a n going a r o u n d smelling like a goat. A solar panel a n d a battery are an excellent idea if you like to read before bedtime. W h a t is i m p o r t a n t is t h a t these things be treated as luxuries rather t h a n necessities, because t h e n their s u d d e n disappearance will n o t come as a shock. Moreover, each of these luxuries can become an encumbrance if the situation calls for a s u d d e n change of plans a n d you cannot f u n c t i o n w i t h o u t t h e m . A n d you will need to f u n c t i o n — if only to provide comforts to those a r o u n d you w h o cannot f u n c t i o n w i t h o u t t h e m . SURVIVING RADICAL CASHECTOMY

It seems inevitable t h a t large parts of the population, including those t h a t currently consider themselves middle class, will become penniless well before m o n e y becomes useless a n d therefore u n i m p o r t a n t . T h o s e w h o have d e b t will find it harder a n d harder to m a k e t h e payments. T h o s e w h o o w n property will find it harder a n d harder to afford the property taxes and t h e municipal fees. T h e m o n e y system will take an ever-increasing bite o u t of everything you do. But this is only t r u e of economic relationships t h a t are m o n e t i z e d — t h a t have m o n e t a r y value a n d involve the exchange of money. T o reduce dep e n d e n c e on t h e m o n e y economy, everyone will b e forced to invent ways to d e m o n e t i z e their lives a n d t h a t of t h e people a r o u n d t h e m .

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Savings a n d personal property can be t r a n s f o r m e d into the stock in trade of h u m a n relationships, which then give rise to reciprocal flows of gifts a n d favors — efficient, private a n d customized to personal needs. This requires a completely different mindset f r o m that cultivated by the consumer society, which strives to standardize a n d reduce everything, including h u m a n relationships, to a client-server paradigm in which m o n e y flows in one direction while p r o d u c t s and services flow in the opposite direction. C u s t o m e r A gets the same thing as customer B, for the same price. This is very inefficient f r o m a personal perspective. Resources are squandered o n new p r o d u c t s whereas reused ones can w o r k j u s t as well. Everyone is forced to m a k e d o with mediocre, off-theshelf p r o d u c t s t h a t are designed for planned obsolescence a n d d o n o t suit t h e m as well as ones crafted to meet their specific needs. A c o m m o d i t y p r o d u c t can be m a n u f a c t u r e d on the opposite side of the planet, whereas a custom one is likely to be m a d e locally, providing work for you and the people in your community. But comm o d i t y p r o d u c t s are also very efficient, f r o m the p o i n t of view of extracting profits a n d concentrating wealth while depleting natural resources a n d destroying the environment. However, this is not the sort of efficiency you should be concerned with. It is n o t in your interest. This, then, is the correct stance vis a vis the m o n e y economy: you should appear to have n o m o n e y or significant possessions. But you should have access to resources, such as food, clothing, medicine, places to stay a n d w o r k and even money. W h a t you do with your m o n e y is u p to you. For example, you can simply misplace it, the way squirrels do with n u t s a n d acorns. O r you can convert it into c o m m u n a l property of one sort or another. You should avoid getting paid, b u t you should accept gifts and, of course, give gifts in return. You should never work for money, b u t always donate your t i m e a n d effort charitably. You should have a m i n i m u m of personal possessions, b u t plenty to share with others. Developing such a stance is hard, but, once you do, life actually gets better. Moreover, by adopting such a stance, you become collapse-proof.

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T H E REVISED PLAYBOOK

People have been k n o w n to get along quite happily w i t h o u t written law, lawyers, courts or jails. Societies always evolve an idea of w h a t is forbidden a n d find ways to p u n i s h those w h o transgress. In the absence of an official system of justice, people generally become m u c h m o r e careful a r o u n d each other, because r u n n i n g afoul of s o m e o n e may lead to a duel or give rise to a vendetta, a n d because, in t h e absence of jails, p u n i s h m e n t s t e n d to become draconian, coming to include dispossession, b a n i s h m e n t a n d even death, which are all int e n d e d to deter a n d to neutralize rather t h a n to punish. T h e transition to a lower-energy system of jurisprudence will no d o u b t be quite t u m u l t u o u s , b u t there is s o m e t h i n g we can b e sure of: many laws will become unenforceable at its very outset. T h i s development, given o u r definition of what is criminal, will d e facto decriminalize many types of behavior, opening new, relatively safe avenues of legal behavior for multitudes of people, creating new opportunities for the wise and f u r t h e r t e m p t i n g the evil a n d the foolish. A s a safety precaution, you might want to distance yourself f r o m the legal system and, to the extent t h a t this is possible, find your o w n justice. A s an exercise, examine each of your relationships t h a t is based on a contract, lease, deed, license, promissory note or other legal i n s t r u m e n t a n d look for ways to replace it with a relationship based on trust, m u t u a l respect a n d c o m m o n interest. T h i n k of ways to make these relationships work within the context of friendships a n d familial ties. T o protect yourself f r o m getting savaged by the justice system as it degenerates into oppression, try to weave a thick web of informal interdependency all a r o u n d you, where any conflict or disagreem e n t can be extinguished by drawing in more a n d more interested parties, all of t h e m eager to resolve it peaceably, a n d n o n e of t h e m willing to let it escalate beyond their midst. Struggle for impartiality w h e n attempting to mediate disputes a n d be guided by your wisd o m and your sense of justice rather t h a n by laws, rules or precedents, which offer p o o r guidance in changing times.

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LOWERING YOUR STANDARDS

H e r e are a few highlights f r o m w h a t a m o u n t s to a very large set of abnormal social standards. T h e pattern is a general one: w h e n an a b n o r m a l society imposes a n d enforces a standard, there is a reasonable likelihood that the standard itself is p a r t of the overall so-' cial pathology. It makes sense to re-examine w h a t society considers i m p o r t a n t , a n d why. For example, Americans t h i n k it is i m p o r t a n t to have perfectly straight, shiny bluish-white teeth, and children are said to need o r t h o d o n t i c treatments. In other countries, ivorycolored teeth are considered n o r m a l for people a n d elephants alike, a n d crooked teeth are fine, provided they do not interfere with chewing food. A n o t h e r example: Americans consider b o d y odors a n d animal smells repulsive, b u t acrid, toxic chemical odors (be they f r o m d e o d o r a n t s a n d disinfectants, engine exhaust or off-gassing plastics a n d synthetic fabrics) are j u s t fine, although it is the latter t h a t are likely to kill you by causing cancer. Finally: although gluttony still makes the list of m o r t a l sins, in America it is quite permissible to be obese a n d people can let themselves go w i t h o u t being regarded as weak-willed. But there is no such special dispensation for abusers of substances other t h a n f o o d . T h o s e w h o are not obese are considered "in shape" — t h a t is, especially virtuous, t h a n k s to some special diet coupled with an a r d u o u s exercise regimen. In the p a n t h e o n of American celebrities, there is n o deity for a normal person to worship — a non-exercising n o n - g l u t t o n o u s non-dieter — while exactly such people are t h e n o r m the world over. American children f r o m about age 6 u p to the age of 14 should properly be counted as p a r t of the prison population. A t best the prison is a minimum-security establishment, where children get day passes to engage in an approved set of activities, which nevertheless have to b e supervised by properly authorized b u t u n d e r p a i d a n d often u n d e r e d u c a t e d adults. I was lucky to have grown u p like child r e n in m u c h of the rest of t h e world, wandering a r o u n d by myself as I pleased, roaming the countryside with other children, and was generally left alone m u c h of the time. From about age eight, d u r i n g the s u m m e r vacation, I was charged with doing most of the grocery

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shopping, which I often did on my bicycle, riding h o m e with heavy sacks precariously balanced o n the handlebar. By the time I was n , my parents t h o u g h t n o t h i n g of taking a vacation w i t h o u t me, leaving m e with the keys a n d some money. In the U n i t e d States, they would have been ratted o u t by some supposedly helpful, concerned neighbor, charged with child neglect, a n d Child Protective Services would have r u s h e d in to confiscate m e a n d p u t m e in a kiddy concentration camp, first medicating m e into submission, then forcing m e to eat j u n k f o o d while watching countless h o u r s of television. O f course, some American babies d o need to be baby-sat their entire lives — b u t that's w h a t the Secret Service is for. A s for the rest of t h e m , I wish t h e m the best of luck in staying away f r o m babysitters, C h i l d Protective Services goons a n d nosy busybody neighbors, because they will certainly need it. S o o n e r or later, we all have to die, a n d it is only a slight exaggeration to say t h a t in America death is either a crime or a medical accident. O f course, death is never one to ask permission of the courts or the doctors, b u t those w h o d o death's bidding can easily find themselves charged with a crime or sued. Suicide is illegal, a n d t h e suicidal are considered insane a n d medicated until they become easy to control, n o matter h o w watertight their reasons for wanting to e n d it all quickly. H e l p i n g s o m e o n e c o m m i t suicide is also illegal. D y i n g in your o w n bed is almost impossible unless you d o it in secret: anyone w h o finds o u t t h a t you are dying a n d doesn't call an ambulance may e n d u p in a lot of trouble. If you refuse or interfere with your own treatment, you are likely b e deemed incompetent a n d restrained, sedated a n d forcibly treated. W h a t is n o t illegal is keeping people alive against their will a n d fashioning t h e m into wired, intubated, ghastly science experiments. D o c t o r s pride themselves on such incongruous achievements, a n d those w h o manage to extend their life beyond all o d d s are considered heroic. M a n y of the higher animals, h u m a n s a m o n g them, possess an instinct t h a t tells t h e m w h e n they are near death. Following this instinct, they stop feeding, seek seclusion, become very still a n d await the inevitable end with dignified resignation. This innate

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behavior is denied to Americans, be they h u m a n or animal: they are n o t qualified to decide w h e n it is time for t h e m t o die. This is a deep cultural flaw t h a t affords the pathological fear of death the status of a heroic struggle. This large set of abnormal social standards makes it perfectly ' n o r m a l to be highly suspicious of American officials or professionals w h o declare t h a t something is required for reasons of safety, health or public order. But one m u s t be very careful a r o u n d them, lest they forcibly medicate you, dispossess you, imprison you or take away your children. Challenging t h e m is like challenging your local insane asylum's N a p o l e o n Bonaparte — with t h e added complication t h a t he h a p p e n s to b e r u n n i n g t h e asylum. A s t h e system t h a t p r o p s t h e m u p decays a n d crumbles a n d their p o w e r wanes, they are likely to start grasping at straws, asserting their dominance in ever m o r e controlling a n d forceful ways. Staying off their radar will require skill a n d imagination. But once this transition period is over, you will be able to set your o w n standards on h o w to be born, grow up, live a n d die, as m a n k i n d has d o n e for millennia, a n d for this it is helpful to t h i n k ahead a n d discard m o s t of t h e cultural garbage t h a t has been foisted on you by some rather questionable authorities. PLAYING THE PART

W h e n faced with economic collapse, national b a n k r u p t c y or outright failure of the entire social a n d political experiment, there doesn't seem to be a lot of scope for fruitful large-scale social collaboration. G a t h e r i n g large segments of a collapsing society a r o u n d you is unlikely to help you escape its fate. A d a p t i n g to a drastically new set of circumstances is a deeply personal matter, because the process of adaptation is highly individual a n d largely psychological a n d n o t something to be shallowly bantered about with strangers. A s far as preparation, beyond a fairly small set of glaringly obvious steps, preparing for collapse in groups may b e quite futile. T h e specific circumstances are impossible to predict and any sufficiently specific or realistic plan breaks d o w n into m i n u t e details that are of little interest to anyone confronting even slightly different circum-

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stances. Preparing in groups by following a single template may also t u r n o u t to be worse t h a n futile, producing the u n i n t e n d e d effect of p u t t i n g more eggs in fewer baskets. Lastly, the effectiveness of any given trick is inversely proportional to the n u m b e r of people w h o are aware of it a n d a t t e m p t to make use of it. However, becoming a h e r m i t is neither desirable nor possible for m o s t of us. W h a t public persona can we present t h a t w o u l d n o t mire us in self-contradiction? H o w does one play the p a r t of someone w h o is well-informed, n o t too frightened by the prospect of a f u t u r e t h a t does n o t resemble the past a n d wants to be prepared for it? M y simple answer is t h a t there is n o role, n o screenplay or storyb o a r d or character. This is n o t to say t h a t acting skills are useless. Q u i t e the opposite — navigating t h r o u g h a disrupted time requires a higher t h a n usual level of mimicry and o u t w a r d conformism. A large p r o p o r t i o n of t h e people you will encounter will be suffering a n d looking for someone t o blame for their suffering — someone w h o is n o t one of "us." Beyond t h e i m p o r t a n t m a t t e r of personal safety, you will need to u n d e r s t a n d w h o has w h a t you need a n d h o w to get it f r o m t h e m . Keep in m i n d t h a t these people will most likely b e too stressed to be interested in you, your opinions, knowledge or unique persona. T h e y will be too busy trying t o get w h a t they need to survive. W h a t they will w a n t to see in you is a faithful a n d respectful reflection of themselves. If their m i n d s are simple, t h e n even a rough approximation will suffice to convince t h e m t h a t you are one of them, a n d t h a t therefore they should help you rather t h a n h u r t you; b u t if you plan to plead your case before the subtle a n d the powerful, it may be helpful to b r u s h u p o n Stanislavsky's system of m e t h o d acting. T h e best roles you will find will be cameos in other people's plays. In a completely fascist country, the one remaining personal f r e e d o m is the f r e e d o m to look a n d act like a complete fascist. In a country t h a t has been gradually slipping toward greater authoritarianism a n d ever-tighter social control, be it t h r o u g h increasing militarism, t h e criminal justice meat-grinder or any of the other, parallel trends, other f r e e d o m s may still exist, b u t their exercise is likely to

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become increasingly dangerous. Displays of extreme individualism, such as the public expression of n o n - m a i n s t r e a m political opinions, are b o u n d to become quite risky. Taking such risks seems rather unnecessary, unless one wants to play the p a r t of a m a r t y r for a lost cause — and it is h a r d to see w h y anyone should want to play t h a t role. T H E SETTLED AND THE N O M A D I C

In the U S , there appear to be few ways to make the collapse scenario work o u t smoothly for oneself and one's family. T h e whole place seems too far gone in a particular, unsustainable direction. It is a real creative challenge a n d we should be giving it a lot of serious t h o u g h t . S o m e of us are, and m o s t often the flight of this t h o u g h t alights on a singular existential question: W h e r e to ensconce a n d secrete o u r precious selves, there to sit o u t the gathering storm? In a nation of n o m a d s , w h o t h i n k n o t h i n g of growing u p in one state, going to school in another a n d settling d o w n in a third, it is surprising to see t h a t so m a n y people come to t h i n k that, d u r i n g the most unsettled of times, some special place will sustain t h e m perpetually. M o r e likely t h a n not, they will be forced to stay o n the move. S u p p o s e you live in a big city, in an a p a r t m e n t or a condo. You d e p e n d on municipal services for survival. A week w i t h o u t electricity, or heat, or water, or gas, or garbage removal spells extreme discomfort. A n y two of these is a calamity. A n y three is a disaster. Food comes f r o m the supermarket, with help f r o m the cash machine or the credit card slot at the checkout station. Clean clothes come f r o m the l a u n d r o m a t , which requires electricity, water a n d natural gas. O n c e all the businesses have shut d o w n and your a p a r t m e n t is cold, dark, smells like garbage (because it isn't being collected) and excrement (because the toilet doesn't flush), p e r h a p s it is time to go camping a n d explore the great outdoors. S o let's consider t h e countryside. S u p p o s e that you o w n a homestead a n d have a tiny fixed rate mortgage t h a t shrivels to next to n o t h i n g after a good b o u t of inflation, or t h a t you o w n it free a n d clear. If it's in a developed s u b u r b a n subdivision, there will still be

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problems with taxes, code enforcement, psychopathic members of your local owners' association and other problems, which could get worse as conditions deteriorate. Distressed municipalities may at first attempt to jack u p rates to cover their costs instead of simply closing up shop. In a misguided effort to save property values, they may also attempt to enforce codes against such necessities as compost heaps, outhouses, chicken coops and crops planted on your front lawn. Keep in mind, also, that the pesticides and herbicides lavished on lawns and golf courses leave toxic residues. Perhaps the best thing to do with suburbia is to abandon it altogether. A small farm offers somewhat better possibilities for growing food, b u t most farms in the U S are mortgaged to the hilt, and most land that has been u n d e r intensive cultivation has been mercilessly bombarded with chemical fertilizers, herbicides and insecticides, making it an unhealthy place, inhabited by men with tiny sperm counts. Small farms tend to be lonely places, and many, without access to diesel or gasoline, would become dangerously remote. You will need neighbors to barter with, to help you and to keep you company. Even a small farm is probably overkill in terms of the a m o u n t of farmland available, because without the ability to get crops to market or a functioning cash economy in which to sell them, there is no reason to grow a large surplus of food. Tens of acres are a waste when all you need is a few thousand square feet. M a n y Russian families managed to survive with the help of a standard garden plot of one sotka, which is 100 square meters, or, if you prefer, 0.024710538 acres or 1076.391 square feet. T h e best place to settle down seems to be a small town or village: a relatively small, dense settlement, with about an acre of farmland for every 30 or so people, and with zoning regulations designed for fair use and sustainability, not opportunities for capital investment, growth, increased property values or other sorts of "development." Further, it will have to be a place where people know each other and are willing to help each other — a real community. There may still be a few h u n d r e d communities like that tucked away here and there in the poorer counties in the United States, b u t there are not

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enough of them, a n d most of t h e m are too p o o r to absorb a significant population of economic migrants. It is risky to stay p u t a n d d e p e n d o n a small annual crop of staples to keep you alive, because climate upheaval is likely to produce crop failures, wreaking havoc with even the best-laid local plans for ensuring f o o d security. Successfully defending one's turf against bandits requires weapons, training a n d an effective organization for maintaining patrols a n d watches, a n d the tiny society locked u p inside its fortress walls may fall victim to its o w n siege mentality, cutting itself off f r o m the world and degenerating into group psychosis. T h o s e with varied interests a n d skills are unlikely to find ample scope for t h e m in a small, landlocked c o m m u n i t y a n d become d e s p o n d e n t a n d depressed. In tough times, the locals have a tendency to get ornery a n d reject newcomers, m a k i n g it difficult to settle either within or anywhere near an established community. A n d so it t u r n s out t h a t there may be plenty of places to visit, b u t there may n o t be a single place to g o a n d stay. Like digging a grave, sitting d o w n next to it and waiting for a nice passerby to tip you in w h e n the time comes, the quest for a final abode as preparation for an uncertain time seems s o m e w h a t quixotic. W e may be enticed by the call to regain the G a r d e n of E d e n , to build a new Jerusalem or simply to escape to a rustic cabin in the wilderness, leaving all evil a n d corruption b e h i n d . But, as a practical matter, once there, we will quickly find reasons to move on, or at least to take a vacation. H a v i n g a p e r m a n e n t base of operations is certainly a good thing but, if so, t h e n having two or three is even better. A n itinerant lifestyle t h a t cycles t h r o u g h t h e m has many advantages. N o matter h o w ornery the natives get, they will always welcome a familiar visitor w h o has something to offer: a few luxury items, stories of the outside world, spare parts a n d t h e k n o w - h o w to maintain decrepit mechanical systems, or magic elixirs to calm, soothe a n d d e - w o r m . T h e n o m a d is likely to develop heightened situational awareness a n d an acute sense of danger, a n d flee before deteriorating circumstances instead of becoming t r a p p e d by t h e m . A settled c o m m u n i t y may quickly deplete every resource within a day's walk, b u t n o m a d s

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can glean a n d gather w h a t they need as they move, surviving off a m u c h p o o r e r environment. A t a m i n i m u m , it makes sense to m a i n tain at least a winter camp a n d a s u m m e r camp, because the needs and opportunities of each season are often very different. S u m m e r is t h e time for spending time outside, ranging widely, gathering in t h e t e m p o r a r y b o u n t y of nature a n d storing it for f u t u r e use. W i n t e r is the time for staying p u t , for safeguarding a n d c o n s u m i n g reserves and for m e n d i n g things, while hiding f r o m inclement weather. W i t h o u t fossil fuel-based transportation, travel will revert to its ancient, organic forms. People will move over unpaved f o o t p a t h s or navigable waterways. W h e n traveling on foot, they will use pack animals such as mules or donkeys to carry provisions, letting t h e m graze along the way. W a t e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n will once again rely primarily o n sailboats, rowboats and, along canals a n d slow-moving rivers, barges pulled by either d r a f t animals or people. In colder climates, frozen waterways provide a perfectly level a n d virtually frictionless surface, m a k i n g for a particularly efficient f o r m of seasonal transportation. Since settled communities are always suspicious of nomads, it is best to never let on t h a t you are one. If your itinerary ranges between p o i n t A a n d point B, t h e n it should b e perfectly obvious to the people at point A t h a t you are a p e r m a n e n t resident at p o i n t B, a n d vice versa. Settled people often have trouble imagining w h a t it w o u l d be like t o live as a n o m a d , a n d so it is best n o t t o tax their imagination, to avoid provoking a fit of xenophobia. O n the other h a n d , settled people feel an instinctual p a n g of sympathy toward anyone w h o is trying to find their way h o m e . T o seek o u t that symp a t h y in strangers, you need to have a place you call home, even if t h a t place only exists in the past, in your imagination or w r a p p e d in a rag at the b o t t o m of your kit bag. In a world where old systems are breaking d o w n a n d old patterns of behavior n o longer apply, discovering a good place to stay is likely to be the result of a happy accident rather t h a n careful planning. A n d until such an accident occurs, the best plan is to keep moving.

L

CAREER OPPDRTUfllTIES t may seem t h a t a post-collapse economic environment would n o t be conducive to thinking productively a b o u t concepts such as career a n d success. O r w o u l d it? U n d e r n o r m a l circumstances, during a typical day in the U S A , m o s t people are struggling to keep their heads above water financially, while a tiny minority of already wealthy individuals becomes even richer. A f t e r t h e collapse occurs, most people will have no h o p e of holding it together. T h e fabulously rich will surely be in for a rocky ride as well, as their investments p l u m m e t in value, their property is looted a n d it becomes harder a n d harder for t h e m to keep the distance between their precious persons and the tide of t h e great unwashed lapping at their f r o n t lawns. But there is sure to b e a t h i r d category — those who, by d i n t of being in t h e right place at the right time, unexpectedly e n d u p with all the loot. T h e s e are people w h o have direct access to actual, physical resources: stockpiles of supplies or access to facilities t h a t can provide a safe harbor, sustenance, transportation or medical aid. Their m a i n concern will be with making sure t h a t their h o a r d is n o t exposed: in insecure circumstances, obscurity becomes the better p a r t of security. A n d there will certainly b e a larger, f o u r t h category — those w h o have skills that many people need a n d the foresight to equip themselves for practicing t h e m w i t h o u t relying o n t h e continued existence of an economy. This could be a carpenter w h o has the foresight to invest in a good set of traditional h a n d - p o w e r e d tools

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(electric-powered tools will b e of little use), or a pharmacist with the foresight to take his stock h o m e right before his p h a r m a c y is looted, or an obstetrician w h o is brave enough to start moonlighting as a midwife. Lastly, a great m a n y people would prefer to retain a profession, even if it n o longer provides gainful employment. Postcollapse, a medical marketing expert becomes an ex-medical marketing expert t u r n e d professional ditch-digger, while an expert o n early 19th century French romanticism remains able to find perfect felicity in sharing specialized knowledge, even if necessity intrudes on it with episodes of tiresome freelance ditch-digging. S o m e professions are only viable in the context of a functioning economy and therefore transitory. O t h e r s are of little economic value to start with and, having little to lose, are sometimes spared t h e worst ravages of collapse. Clearly, many professions will n o t hold m u c h promise in a postcollapse environment. For example, t h e d e m a n d for lawyers, plastic surgeons, psychiatrists, fashion consultants a n d financial advisers will drop, because ever fewer middle-class people will require or be able to afford their services. Likewise, j o b s in sales a n d marketing are likely to dwindle. O t h e r professions, such as repo-men, auctioneers a n d undertakers, will still b e very m u c h in d e m a n d , for a time. W h e t h e r or n o t you decide to switch professions, you should choose s o m e t h i n g lucrative, w o r k h a r d for a while, stock u p on w h a t you need to start living sustainably a n d get out. T h e r e is n o sense in diving into m u r k y waters except to m a k e a bundle, a n d it is risky to expose your wealth should you manage to accumulate any. E n d lessly r u n n i n g o n a financial treadmill, as so many people d o today, will n o longer be a viable option. ASSET STRIPPING

Russia's post-collapse economy was for a t i m e d o m i n a t e d by one type of wholesale business: asset stripping. T o p u t it in an American setting: suppose you have title, or otherwise u n h i n d e r e d access, to an entire s u b u r b a n subdivision, which is no longer accessible by transportation, either public or private, too far to reach by bicycle

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a n d is generally no longer suitable for its intended p u r p o s e of housing a n d accumulating equity for fully employed c o m m u t e r s w h o used to shop at the n o w d e f u n c t nearby mall. A f t e r t h e mortgages are foreclosed a n d the properties repossessed, w h a t more is there to do, except b o a r d it all u p a n d let it rot? Well, w h a t has been developed can be j u s t as easily undeveloped. W h a t you d o is strip it of anything valuable or reusable, and either sell or stockpile the materials. Pull the copper o u t of the streets a n d the walls. H a u l away the curbstones and t h e utility poles. Take d o w n the vinyl siding. Pull out the fiberglass insulation. T h e fancy b a t h r o o m fixtures can surely find a new use somewhere else, especially if new ones are n o longer being i m p o r t e d due to lack of international credit. H a v i n g bits of the landscape disappear can be a r u d e surprise. O n e s u m m e r I arrived in St. Petersburg a n d f o u n d t h a t a new scourge h a d descended o n the land while I h a d been away: a lot of manhole covers were mysteriously missing. N o b o d y knew where they went or w h o h a d profited f r o m their removal. O n e guess was t h a t the municipal workers, w h o h a d n o t been paid in m o n t h s , took t h e m h o m e with t h e m , to be r e t u r n e d once they got paid. T h e m a n h o l e covers did eventually reappear, so there may b e some t r u t h to this theory. W i t h t h e gaping manholes positioned t h r o u g h o u t the city like so many anteater traps for cars, you h a d the choice of driving either very slowly a n d carefully, avoiding each one, or very fast, betting your life on the p r o p e r functioning of your shock absorbers. Post-collapse Russia's housing stock stayed largely intact, b u t an orgy of asset stripping of a different kind took place: n o t j u s t leftover inventory, b u t entire factories were stripped d o w n a n d exp o r t e d . W h a t went o n in Russia u n d e r the guise of privatization is a subject for a different book, b u t w h e t h e r one refers to it as "privatization" or "liquidation" or "theft" doesn't m a t t e r : those with title to something worthless for its intended use will still find a way to extract value f r o m it, making it even m o r e worthless. A n a b a n d o n e d s u b u r b a n subdivision might be worthless as housing, b u t it may still be valuable as a d u m p site for toxic waste.

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Just because the economy is going to collapse in the most heavily oil-addicted country on earth doesn't necessarily mean that things will be j u s t as bad everywhere else. As the Soviet example shows, if the entire country is for sale, buyers will materialize o u t of nowhere, crate it u p and haul it away. First they will export the high-value items: furnishings, equipment, works of art, antiques. T h e last remnant of industrial activity is usually the scrap iron business. There seems to be no limit to the a m o u n t of iron that can be extracted f r o m a mature post-industrial site using manual labor. DRUGS AND ALCOHOL

A rather striking similarity between Russians and Americans is their propensity to self-medicate. W h i l e the Russian has traditionally been single-heartedly dedicated to the pursuit of vodka, the American is more likely than not to have also tried cannabis. Cocaine has also had a big effect on American culture, as have opiates. There are differences as well: the Russian is somewhat less likely to drink alone or to be apprehended for drinking, or being drunk, in public. To a Russian, being d r u n k is almost a sacred right; to an American, it is a guilty pleasure. M a n y of the unhappier Americans are forced by their circumstances to drink and drive; this does not make them, nor the other drivers, nor the pedestrians (should any still exist) any happier. T h e Russian can get furiously d r u n k in public, stagger about singing patriotic songs, fall into a snow bank, and either freeze to death or be carted off to a d r u n k tank. All this produces little or no remorse in him. Based on my reading of H . L. Mencken, America was also once u p o n a time a land of happy drunks, where a whiskey bottle would be passed around the courtroom at the start of the proceedings and a drunken j u r y would later render a d r u n k e n verdict. But Prohibition ruined all that. Russia's prohibition lasted only a few short years, when Gorbachev tried to save the nation from itself and failed miserably. W h e n the economy collapses, hard-drinking people everywhere find all the more reason to get drunk, b u t much less wherewithal

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with which to procure d r i n k . In Russia, innovative market-based solutions were quickly improvised, which it was my privilege to observe. It was summer, and I was o n a local electric train heading o u t of St. Petersburg. It was packed, so I stood in the vestibule of the car a n d gazed at rainbows (it h a d j u s t rained) t h r o u g h the missing windowpane. Soon, activity within the vestibule caught my attention. A t each stop, grannies with jugs of m o o n s h i n e would approach the car door a n d offer a sniff to the eager customers waiting inside. Price a n d quality were quickly discussed, an agreed-upon quantity was dispensed in exchange for a fistful of notes, j u g to mug, a n d the train moved on. T h e a t m o s p h e r e was tense, because along with the paying customers there came m a n y others, w h o were simply along for the ride, b u t expected their fair share nevertheless. I was forced to make a hasty exit a n d j a m myself into the salon, because the freeloaders t h o u g h t I was taking u p valuable freeloading space. T h e r e might be a few m o o n s h i n e - m a k e r s left in rural parts of the U n i t e d States, b u t m o s t of the country seems to be addicted to cans a n d bottles of beer, or jugs, plastic or glass, of liquor. W h e n this source dries u p d u e to problems with interstate trucking, local breweries will n o d o u b t continue to operate, a n d even expand production, to cope with b o t h old a n d new d e m a n d , b u t there will still be plenty of r o o m for improvisation. I w o u l d also expect cannabis to become even m o r e widespread; it makes people less prone to violence t h a n liquor, which is good, b u t it also stimulates their appetite, which is bad if there isn't a lot of f o o d . Still, it is m u c h cheaper to produce t h a n alcohol, which requires either grain or natural gas and complicated chemistry. In all, we should expect drugs a n d alcohol to become one of the largest s h o r t - t e r m post-collapse entrepreneurial opportunities in the U n i t e d States, along with asset stripping a n d security. PROVIDING

SECURITY

Security in the post-collapse Soviet U n i o n was, shall we say, lax. I came t h r o u g h unscathed, b u t I k n o w quite a few people w h o did n o t . A childhood friend of mine a n d her son were killed in their

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a p a r t m e n t over t h e measly s u m of one h u n d r e d dollars. A n elderly lady I k n o w was knocked out a n d h a d her j a w broken by a burglar w h o waited outside her door for her to come home, assaulted her, took her keys a n d looted her place. T h e r e is an infinite supply of stories of this sort. Empires are held together t h r o u g h violence or the threat of violence. B o t h the U S a n d Russia were, a n d are, serviced by a legion of servants whose expertise is in using violence: soldiers, policemen, prison wardens a n d private security consultants. B o t h countries have a surplus of battle-hardened m e n w h o have killed, w h o are psychologically damaged by the experience, a n d have n o qualms about taking h u m a n life. In b o t h countries, there are many, many people whose stock in trade is their use of violence, in offense or defense. N o matter w h a t else happens, they will be employed or selfemployed; preferably t h e former. In a post-collapse situation, all of these violent m e n automatically fall into the general category of private security consultants. T h e y have a way of creating enough work to keep their entire tribe busy: if you don't hire them, they will still d o the work, b u t against you rather t h a n for you. Rackets of various sizes a n d shapes proliferate, and, if you have some property to protect, or wish to get something done, a great deal of your time a n d energy becomes absorbed by t h e effort to keep your private security organization h a p p y a n d effective. To r o u n d o u t t h e violent p a r t of the p o p u l a tion, there are also plenty of criminals. A s their sentences expire, or as jail overcrowding and lack of resources force the authorities to grant amnesties, they are released into the wild a n d return to a life of violent crime. But now there is n o b o d y to lock t h e m u p again because the machinery of law enforcement has broken d o w n due to lack of f u n d s . This f u r t h e r exacerbates the need for private security a n d p u t s those w h o cannot afford it at additional risk. T h e r e is a c o n t i n u u m of sorts between those w h o can provide security a n d mere thugs. T h o s e w h o can provide security also t e n d to k n o w h o w to either employ or otherwise dispose of mere thugs. T h u s , f r o m the point of view of an uneducated security consumer,

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it is very i m p o r t a n t to work with an organization rather t h a n with individuals. T h e need for security is huge: with a large n u m b e r of desperate people about, anything t h a t is n o t watched will be stolen. T h e scope of security-related activities is also huge: f r o m sleepless grannies w h o sit in watch over t h e cucumber patch to bicycle parking lot attendants a n d housesitters, all the way to a r m e d convoys a n d snipers on rooftops. A s the government, with its policing and law enforcement functions, atrophies, private, improvised security measures cover the gap it leaves b e h i n d . In Russia, there was a period of years d u r i n g which the police were basically n o t functioning: they h a d no equipment, no budget, a n d their salaries were n o t sufficient for survival. M u r d e r s went unsolved, muggings a n d burglaries were n o t even investigated. T h e police could only survive t h r o u g h graft. T h e r e was a substantial a m o u n t of melding between the police a n d organized crime. As the economy came back it all got sorted out, to some extent. W h e r e there is n o reason to expect the economy to ever come back, one m u s t learn h o w to make strange new friends, a n d keep them, for life. T h e scope for security operations is virtually unlimited: as the populace becomes increasingly distressed economically, all items of value will need to be kept o u t of view or carefully guarded — preferably b o t h . T h e first requirement in any middling-to-large transaction will b e to provide security. A n organization t h a t can provide security in an unstable environment is t h u s well-positioned to branch o u t into a m u l t i t u d e of other services: warehousing, logistics, transportation, finance a n d legal services. SERVING YOUR COUNTRY

If you find t h a t you need to switch professions, and want to remain within t h e official economy, t h e n you may decide to transition into the area of government contracting, availing yourself of the ample o p p o r t u n i t i e s presented by official corruption, graft a n d politically sanctioned organized crime, which are sure to continue seeing substantial growth. T h e r e will be a great deal of government inventory of all sorts — f r o m very expensive weapons systems to very

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expensive toilet seats — to b e sold off, sometimes at a substantial profit. If you have a flair for international deal-making, t h e n

finding

foreign buyers for liquidated U S g o v e r n m e n t assets m i g h t be somet h i n g you could ease your way into. A l t h o u g h g o v e r n m e n t w o r k may be steady for a time, it also involves following rules a n d regulations (or at least p r e t e n d i n g to), toeing t h e line, t u r n i n g a blind eye a n d playing t h e politics. Also, it rarely provides t h e satisfaction of getting s o m e t h i n g useful accomplished. Finally, unless you m a n a g e to position yourself close to t h e t o p of t h e f o o d chain, where billions in public m o n e y regularly go missing w i t h hardly any questions asked, it is also n o t going to be particularly lucrative. Profiting f r o m g o v e r n m e n t c o r r u p t i o n is a high-stakes game, w i t h only t h e extremely well-connected a d m i t t e d to t h e table. O n e area of g o v e r n m e n t e m p l o y m e n t to avoid is in t h e federal intelligence a n d security agencies, because they are m u c h too silly. C o m p a r e d to t h e Soviet Union's K G B , which was k n o w n for t h e high quality of its staff a n d its fearsome competence, t h e b u m b l i n g A m e r i c a n intelligence a n d security services have never m e a s u r e d up. D u r i n g t h e C o l d War, o n e of their m a i n activities was exaggerating t h e Soviet t h r e a t t h r o u g h fanciful interpretation of scarce a n d a m b i g u o u s data, in order to j u s t i f y their o w n budgets, as well as those of their colleagues in national defense. O n e Soviet deserter I spoke with, w h o at t h e t i m e w o r k e d as a consultant for t h e C I A , privately characterized it as "a very silly organization." It m a y be t h a t t h e people h e consulted for — Kremlinologists, t h e ones w h o failed to predict t h e Soviet collapse — are a bit sillier t h a n t h e others, but, overall, t h e c o m m o n image is one of a politicized, bumbling, sprawling a n d ineffectual bureaucracy. T h e attacks of S e p t e m b e r n , 2001, which it failed to detect, prevent or even adequately u n d e r s t a n d after they occurred, were a palpable h i t to its reputation, a n d although terrorism is n o t a m a j o r source of mortality in t h e U S (it w o u l d take a 9/n-sized attack almost every m o n t h for it to rival t h e h o m i cide rate) t h e response was a sort of desperate h y p e r t r o p h y of t h e A m e r i c a n security apparatus. It is getting bigger a n d m o r e invasive

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all the time, b u t there are few signs that it is getting any smarter, a n d its growth is starting to look like the final feeding frenzy of a fatally w o u n d e d beast. W h i l e m e m b e r s of the K G B went on to play a big role in Russia's post-collapse government, because they were c o m p e t e n t a n d well-organized, n o such h a p p y end seems likely for t h e hapless American spooks. O n c e the air starts leaking o u t of the federal budget, their fortunes will deflate along with it. ALTERNATIVE

MEDICINE

Black m a r k e t medicine promises to be particularly interesting, alt h o u g h perhaps n o t particularly lucrative. T h e cash economy will inevitably come to include pharmaceuticals, which in the U S are overpriced a n d often not available over the counter, b u t which can be m a n u f a c t u r e d in u n d e r g r o u n d laboratories, or purchased elsewhere in the world a n d i m p o r t e d in bulk. In addition, every year there are more a n d m o r e people for w h o m Western medicine does n o t work, or works badly, a n d w h o are learning to avail themselves of the pharmacopeia of traditional medicine. A l t h o u g h there are some exotic ingredients used in traditional medicine, many medicinal herbs can b e grown in most places, d o n o t require complex cultivation a n d are, in fact, weeds. O n c e W e s t e r n medicine and t h e pharmaceutical industry o n which it d e p e n d s enter a period of decline, it is likely t h a t acceptance of traditional medicine will increase. If black m a r k e t pharmaceuticals may be s o m e w h a t lucrative, t h e n w h a t a b o u t black market medical practice? At some point it will come to include office visits a n d even surgery that are at first administered as "free care," b u t if one wants a follow-up visit, t h e n one w o u l d have to offer a "gift." Currently, doctors in the U S are sandwiched between layers of lawyers, insurance companies a n d pharmaceutical companies, all of w h o m require a profit in order to exist. O n c e there is no profit to be m a d e by anyone, only t h e doctors will remain, because they (and nurses) are the only ones w h o are indispensable t o the practice of medicine. T h e y will once again start making house calls a n d work for whatever they can get: a bit of cash or even food, or simply because they care a b o u t their patients

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a n d want to be helpful a n d respected. T h e y w o u l d be well advised to become c o m p e t e n t herbalists before their pharmaceutical supply dries up. ALTERNATIVE

TRANSPORTATION

W h e n I was in St. Petersburg in the s u m m e r of 1990, the lives of drivers were complicated by gasoline shortages, which resulted in long lines at the few gas stations that h a p p e n e d to be open, often m a d e worse by a ten-liter limit on gasoline purchases. For many drivers, this m e a n t t h a t m a n y h o u r s h a d to be spent looking for gas. S o m e knew h o w to buy gasoline on the black market, t h r o u g h the various government d e p o t s t h a t received their allotments separately f r o m the retail distribution system, b u t there they h a d to pay black market prices. W h a t was a headache for drivers t u r n e d o u t to be a b o n a n z a for the non-drivers: almost every private car was for hire, in a m a n n e r of speaking. T o get a lift, all I h a d to d o was stand by the side of t h e road a n d stretch o u t my h a n d . W i t h i n minutes, a car w o u l d pull over. T h e driver w o u l d ask m e where I wanted to go, a n d give a yes or n o answer. T h e r e was rarely r o o m for negotiation: either it was along his way, or it was n o t . T h e driver would also n a m e the price — usually t w o or three rubles — which was m o s t reasonable. A couple of years later, the gasoline situation improved a n d I could have stood by t h e side of t h e r o a d with my h a n d o u t all day, if I w a n t e d to, a n d be in n o danger of getting anywhere. S t a n d i n g by the side of t h e road all day with your h a n d o u t describes the situation we should expect to see in the U n i t e d States once gasoline shortages set in. W i t h o u t a private car, it seems m o r e difficult to get a r o u n d in the U S t h a n j u s t about anywhere in the world: there is little to n o public transportation a n d little help f r o m the people either. T h i s was n o t always the case: j u s t t w o decades ago, it was still quite possible to hitchhike across the country. A s m o r e a n d m o r e people find themselves stranded by gasoline shortages, hitchhiking is likely to see a rebirth, along with a variety of jitney services. T h e r e are certainly efficiencies t o b e gained by having passengers stand rather t h a n sit, packing people shoulder to shoulder

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in the beds of pickup trucks. T h e C u b a n s have d o n e quite well using flatbed trucks to t r a n s p o r t bicyclists across H a v a n a . There is little d o u b t t h a t countless similar solutions can be improvised; the challenge lies in suspending commercial regulations a n d public safety laws, a n d in muzzling the lawyers to prevent litigation in case of accident. Unsafe transportation is better than n o n e at all. M a n y people still enjoy flying, in spite of the constant stream of h o r r o r stories about passengers detained a n d searched w i t h o u t reason, possessions confiscated, jets full of passengers left stranded on the tarmac for days, a n d days a n d nights spent in airports whenever the weather t u r n s inclement. T h e m o r e or less constant stream of terror alerts focusing o n airlines results in ever more onerous public safety measures at airports. T h e notorious shoe b o m b e r was taking a step in a particular direction, m a k i n g it j u s t a m a t t e r of time before a n o t h e r ideologically confused nobody decides to parlay an airline ticket into a lifetime of r o o m a n d board care of the American taxpayer a n d takes the obvious next step, flying with a b o m b u p his rectum — or even j u s t p r e t e n d i n g to, interrupting the in-flight e n t e r t a i n m e n t with loud cries of'Blimey, I fink I got a b o m b u p m e b u m ! " A f t e r that, it will b e b o d y cavity searches for everyone, to be p e r f o r m e d by some eager high school d r o p o u t s w h o m H o m e l a n d Security will recruit and train. O n c e u p o n a time, flying was only for the bravest a m o n g us, a n d it is becoming t h a t way again. For those w h o do n o t want to drive or to fly, it is still possible to get a r o u n d quite a bit of the country by train. Here, however, we find a system so neglected t h a t trains on even the popular r u n s such as the N o r t h e a s t C o r r i d o r are slow a n d unreliable. A t t e m p t s to breathe new life into the rail system, such as the Acela high-speed train, have r u n into problems with antiquated track, Byzantine organization and an ancient piece of legislation that compelled the engineers to design Acela to be the heaviest high-speed train in t h e world. Even w i t h o u t fuel shortages, which are sure to come, Americas transportation infrastructure is already in a b a d way. It is b o u n d to continue getting worse. For those w h o still w a n t to travel, w h a t

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alternatives are there? Aside f r o m the truly exotic ones ( h o t air balloons, etc.) there are j u s t two options that are widely available, reasonably safe, practical a n d enjoyable: sailing a n d bicycling. T h e two work well in combination. Sailboats can carry bicycles (with some difficulty: they need to be disassembled, placed in waterproof bags, a n d lashed to t h e lifelines). A sailboat's range is unlimited, a n d it can often carry m a n y months' w o r t h of provisions. Bicycles are perfect for inland forays u p to a few h u n d r e d miles in search of m o r e provisions. If you believe t h a t sailboats are luxury items, accessible only to t h e well-to-do, j u s t check t h e foreclosure listings for t h e m . You will find t h a t a few m o n t h s ' rent will buy you a new, floating, rent-free h o m e . If the cost is still too much, all you have to d o is wait: the sailb o a t m a r k e t is going f r o m b a d to worse. O n c e afloat, you will find t h a t people on t h e water are almost invariably nice to each other and that there is n o such thing as "waterway rage." T h e r e is also safety in n u m b e r s : b o t h sailors a n d bicyclists t e n d to look out for each other. H a v i n g a moat a r o u n d you provides a remarkable a m o u n t of b o t h privacy and security: even if you're j u s t yards away f r o m shore, you might as well be in another world to anyone w i t h o u t a boat. SOCIAL W O R K IN THE H O M E

In the ripe-for-collapse service economy, in the more prosperous places a n d for the more prosperous people, life can resemble an ext e n d e d stay at an all-included resort or aboard a cruise ship. It is really quite amazing h o w many different types of service you can obtain, j u s t walking or, m o r e often, driving d o w n a single street a n d waving a piece of plastic in every place you enter. Starting with breakfast, you can walk into a m o m a n d p o p diner (there are p r o b ably one or two left) a n d get your eggs d o n e the way you like. N e x t , you can get a shave a n d a haircut, perhaps even a pedicure. A f t e r that, for whatever little thing t h a t ails you, you have a choice of a chiropractor, shiatsu massage, a c u p u n c t u r e or C h i n e s e herbs. W i t h the onset of cocktail hour, s o m e o n e will be on h a n d to serve you a drink.

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A n d t h a t is if everything is O K . S h o u l d you suddenly experience some serious problem, a n u m b e r of other professionals will be on h a n d to assist you: the police, emergency r o o m staff, a n d a variety of counselors a n d therapists to assist with your rehabilitation. O n c e you are fully rehabilitated, it will be back to the pedicures, the massages a n d the cocktails. A t n o p o i n t would you need to ask anyone to d o you any favors: it is their j o b to help you! Your friends might hear about your negative experiences, b u t at n o point would you need to inconvenience t h e m by actually asking for help. T h e y would, of course, show concern; after all, what are friends for? In an environment where most of one's needs are addressed by readily available, standardized product-service offerings, actual h u m a n relationships become a luxury, reserved for sex a n d f u n . Even traditionally private, face-to-face functions, such as procreation and child-rearing, can easily be taken care of by fertility clinics a n d child care centers. M a n y people spend most of their free time alone, having few close friends and a r a n d o m , revolving collection of casual acquaintances. Deprived of any vital purpose, their interactions t e n d to become shallow a n d scripted, focusing o n artificial subjects such as politics, sports events or business a n d technology. Successfully socialized individuals t e n d to favor simple, easy-to-read, overwhelmingly positive emotions a n d t e n d to avoid complex, nuanced or dark feelings or thoughts, for fear t h a t these would negatively impact their inclusive fitness, p e r h a p s causing t h e m to be seen as troubled, a n d therefore in need of professional intervention. Service economies are a rather recent invention. It was previously t h o u g h t t h a t value was created by taking various kinds of raw materials and t r a n s f o r m i n g t h e m into useful artifacts by the application of energy and skilled labor. This approach works, b u t creates a problem for the capitalists: once consumers have obtained everything they need, they n o longer have to work as hard. W h e n t h a t happens, economic growth slows d o w n or even stops, resulting in fewer opportunities to productively reinvest capital in further p r o d u c t i o n . Capital — the accumulated profits f r o m previous p r o d u c t i o n — is worthless unless it can b e used to charge interest

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via loans or to secure a share of f u t u r e profits via direct investment in m o r e p r o d u c t i o n . Tricks such as planned obsolescence a n d the p r o d u c t i o n of ever m o r e short-lived, increasingly s h o d d y p r o d u c t s are helpful here, b u t t h e real solution is to repackage p r o d u c t s as services, allowing those holding t h e capital to collect rent. It has been f o u n d t h a t t h e d e m a n d for services is far less flexible t h a n the d e m a n d for products. For example, a consumer is more likely to defer the purchase of a new television set t h a n to suspend her cable television service. A l t h o u g h it is o f t e n t h o u g h t t h a t a service economy produces value, as an empirical m a t t e r it can be observed t h a t w h a t it produces in the United States is debt. O n e borrows m o n e y in order to provide a n d to receive services. Loans are extended based on the expectation that, in the future, d e m a n d for these services will be even higher, driving f u r t h e r economic g r o w t h . However, this is n o t a closed system: t h e delivery of these services is linked to external energy flows. Greater flows of energy, in the f o r m of increased oil a n d natural gas imports, increased coal p r o d u c t i o n a n d so forth, are failing to occur, for a variety of geological a n d geopolitical reasons. T h e r e is every reason to expect t h a t the ability to deliver services will suffer as a result of energy shortages, collapsing t h e debt pyramid. T h e day is coming w h e n you walk into an establishment waving a piece of plastic, a n d n o b o d y is particularly impressed with it and eager to serve you. N o w imagine a s u d d e n transition to a world where it is nobody's j o b to serve you or to assist you. A t first, we should expect bewilderment, accompanied by unprecedented levels of verbal a n d physical abuse, as those with u n m e t needs a t t e m p t to assert their vestigial consumer rights. Alongside t h e c o m m u n a l violence, m a y h e m and looting, people will start picking each other o u t f r o m the crowds a n d connecting o n an entirely new level by accepting responsibility for each other, a n d for each others' needs. T h e needs, it will t u r n out, are of two complementary kinds: to be helped a n d to give help. In those w h o give help, t h e triggering of the altruistic instinct, or the return to a traditional sense of virtue, combined with the instant

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of confirming ones usefulness, p r o d u c e s a power-

ful e n d o r p h i n release, giving rise to a feeling of euphoria. In those w h o receive help t h a t is freely given, a deep feeling of gratitude is created, which, if it is expressed a n d acknowledged graciously, creates a powerful b o n d , b u t which, if it is expressed awkwardly, or t h r o u g h clumsy a t t e m p t s at instant reciprocation, or if it is expressed b u t goes unacknowledged, can easily give rise to m u t u a l resentment. In the a f t e r m a t h of a society t h a t strives to regiment, compartmentalize and, if possible, monetize all h u m a n interactions, the transition to a society where aid a n d comfort are given directly requires a t h o r o u g h cultural t r a n s f o r m a t i o n . W h i l e m a n y will find it liberating to cast aside the straitjacket of their j o b s a n d to give help directly, m a n y others will find t h a t they lack the social skills to function outside the commercial, client-server pattern. T h o s e parts of t h e population t h a t have recent or continuing experience with circumstances t h a t have forced t h e m to provide for their m u t u a l welfare — recent immigrant groups, minorities a n d the p o o r — can perhaps provide t h e cultural seed stock to m a k e this transformation possible. Moving away f r o m an environment where behavior is controlled by the implicit threat of violence or p u n i s h m e n t f r o m outside the group — be it imprisonment, other kinds of penalties or dismissal f r o m one's j o b — to o n e where n o such external disciplinary authority exists, is b o u n d to raise t h e intensity of h u m a n relationships. T h e m e t h o d s of control that evolve may be brutal or subtle, their evolution affected by myriad factors, a n d the society t h a t results can r u n the g a m u t f r o m one where hell is other people, to one where only t h e children ever need to be disciplined a n d even they m o r e often t h a n n o t by a mere shrug or a raised eyebrow. T h e transition f r o m a f r a m e w o r k where services are rendered by strangers to one where needs are served by friends a n d acquaintances will bring m o r e a n d m o r e activities back into the h o m e : the kitchen, the basement workshop, the back yard a n d the h o m e office. For as long as the authorities a t t e m p t to maintain a stranglehold on professional activities — for instance, arresting foreign-trained a n d

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unlicensed medical practitioners w h o serve those w h o cannot afford official medicine — a lot of this activity will be driven u n d e r g r o u n d . But it makes sense to start this transition early, avoiding a n d preventing complications with t h e authorities as needed. Eventually, t h e authorities' regulatory zeal will become t e m p e r e d by their need to be fed, clothed a n d treated for their ailments, making it possible to bring these activities back into the open, w i t h o u t fearing reprisal. S o m e may even come to play a helpful role, for instance, by closing streets to traffic a n d helping to t r a n s f o r m t h e m into viable public spaces. But until t h a t happens, life will have to continue in private, in seclusion, centered a r o u n d the h o m e .

in conclusion S

ince I have started writing articles on the subject of collapse, quite a few people have contacted me to tell m e that, shocking as it may

seem to t h e m , basically they agree with me. This is, of course, heartening to hear, b u t what does it mean, really? All I've d o n e is f o r m u late a technique for comparing superpower collapses, and exploit it for all it is w o r t h in a series of intentionally provocative t h o u g h t experiments. I h o p e that agreeing with m e is j u s t a developmental stage of sorts, a resting point on the way f r o m being in agreement with the country at large to grasping the sad t r u t h about it a n d being in agreement with j u s t a few close soul mates, if that. T h e big, rowdy p a r t y t h a t was this country, with its lavish, garish, oversized, d o m i n a t i n g ways is nearing its e n d a n d soon the festive gathering will split u p a n d people will w a n d e r home, each their own separate way. People like to party together b u t they like to nurse their hangovers alone. Q u i t e a few people have also written to ask m e a question or two. " W h e n is the collapse going to happen?" Well, I d o n o t want the economy to collapse before everyone gets a chance to purchase this book, so let us h o p e for the b e s t . " W h a t d o I plan to do?" Well, I a m n o t sure. But I do wish to share this: I certainly d o n o t plan to be trapped by any one p l a n , " W h a t should I do?" Well, you should figure out w h a t it is you absolutely need to lead a healthy, happy, fulfilling existence. T h e n figure o u t a way to continue getting it once

159

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COLLAPSE

the U S economy collapses, taking a lot of society with it. (This is easier said t h a n done; good luck!) In this book, I have said some obvious things a n d some things t h a t should s u r p r i s e j u s t about everyone. I have tried to express w h a t many people t h i n k b u t fear to say, a n d p e r h a p s even a few things that people fear to t h i n k . I have worked very h a r d to write a b o o k o n an i m p o r t a n t b u t seriously depressing subject that's nevertheless f u n to read; I h o p e that I have succeeded. All t h a t I ask in return is t h a t you retain the ability to see things clearly, decide for yourself, and keep your sense of h u m o r — n o m a t t e r w h a t h a p p e n s . I firmly believe t h a t only an individual approach can bring something close to happiness. T h a t is, ultimately, n o one can k n o w w h a t is best for you a n d n o one can prepare you for anything except you yourself. This, unfortunately, is impossible to do w i t h o u t feeling the pain of loneliness w h e n things are n o t going so well. However, this pain does n o t have to b e p e r m a n e n t : it also allows you to feel joy a n d satisfaction w h e n the situation changes for the better. W h a t many people forget is that m o s t everyone feels pain in their lives. A l t h o u g h superficially it creates a feeling of separation f r o m the rest of t h e world, it can also bring us closer together.

INDEX

bomzhies, 65-66 boondoggles, 118-120 "brain drain,"72-73 135-137 Brandenburg Gate, 47 Acela high-speed trains, 153 bread riots, 84,87 activism, 116—117,118 Brezhnev Doctrine, 40 activity, 128-130 Burgan, Kuwait, 102 adaptation, 125-142 Bush, George (senior), 38,39 Afghanistan, Clinton's campaign, 39; effect of Soviet loss Bush, George W., 34,49,58,98 C in, 40; Soviet invasion, viii, camps, 78 38,41,48; Soviet normalcy and, 127; Soviet planes in, 26; canal system, 68,142 terrorist attacks and, 107; US cannabis, 146,147 Cantarell, Mexico, 102,103 invasion, 36 capital (investments), 61,120agribusiness, 22,120 agriculture. See farming 122,155-156 alcohol, 146-147 capital goods, 28,61,70,79 ambition, 128-129 capitalism, 21,52-54 "American Dream," 54 careers, 128,143-158 amnesties, 112,148 cars; banning new, 119; depenAndropov, Yuri, 9,43 dence on, 64; gasoline shortanti-alcoholism campaign, 10, ages and, 67,152; necessity of, 146 130; right to own, 24-25 Carter, Jimmy, 41,47 antidepressants, 92 Carter Doctrine, 40-41,113— apathy, 117 114 apprenticeships, 98 aquifers, 83 catabolic collapse, 2 Caucasus, 98 arms race, 20,21,35-42 Cedar Revolution, 57 asset stripping, 61,144-146 central planning; capitalism authoritarianism, 138-139 and, 53; consumer goods and, automobiles. See cars 70; control of, 129; housing, B 33,67; successes of, 21 Baghdad, 47 Chechen mafia, 14 bankruptcy race, 20,21-22, Chechens, 42 49-52 Chechnya, 39 banks, 14,64 Cheek, Douglas, x barter, 70,121 chelnoki, 122 base of operations, 141-142 chemical farming, 83 Belarus, 57 Chernobyl disaster, viii, 20,34, Bell Labs, 30 127 Belomor Canal, 42 Child Protective Services, 136 Berlin, 47 children, 74,75-76,135-136 Bernanke, Ben, 51 China, 102,120 bicycles, 68-69,154 CIA, 3,150-151 biodiesel, 4,104 cities, 64-65,139 biofuels, 24,28,104 civilizations, collapse of, 6 biometric systems, 47 black market, 10,64,70,151,152 classless society, 23-24 client-server paradigm, 133, blat, 129 blogs, 12 8 154-158

A abnormal social standards,

161

climate change, 34-35, hi, 141; See also global w a r m i n g

Clinton, Bill, 39,114 clothing, 28-29,81,131 coal, 4,104,120 coal-to-liquids conversion, 104, 119,120 Cold War, vii, 2,35,58,150 collapse; adaptation, 125—142; of civilizations, 6; definition of, 2; of economy, 6-7; in general, 60-62; likelihood of, 1; mitigation, 107-123,125 collateralized debt, 112 collectivization, 22,83-84 comforts, 130-132 commodity products, 133 communal living, 74 communism, vii, 129 Communist party, vii, 48,55,114 communities, 140-142 comparative analysis, 16,159 computers, 29-33,47 conformism, 138,139 construction industry, 3 consumer goods; central planning and, 70; commodity products, 133; comparison, 79-82; ideology and, 28-29; imports, 52; investing in, 120-122; as services, 156 consumer society, 127,133 conveniences, 130—132 corporations; collapse prevention for, 115-116; food industry, 87-88; judicial system and, 44; real estate ownership, 64; staffing structure, 71-72 crime, 44,77,136 criminals, 46,148 Cuba, 39,90,153 Czechoslovakia, 36 D death, 136-137 debt, viii, 112,132,156 defense. See military; security democracy, 21,56,57,113 democratic institutions, 55 denial, 3—6

162

INDEX

gifts, 133 gtasnost, 48,108 Glaspie, April, 38 56-57 global warming, 3,28, in, 120; diesel, 27 See also climate change diet, 27; See alsofoodsupply golf courses, 140 diplomatic interventions, 40 Gorbachev, Mikhail; glasnost disabilities, persons with, 77 campaign, 108; on perception disciplinary authorities, 157of Communist party, 48; per158 estroika speeches, no; politidiscomfort, 131-132 cal prisoner release, 9 disobedience, 97 Gore, Al, 68 disposable products, 80-81 dissidents, 43,113,128 government contracting, 149doctors, 91-93,136,151 151 drugs, 107,146-147; See also governments; during collapse, pharmaceutical companies 60,61; collapse mitigation, E no—in; evil empires, 20,21, Eastern Europe, 26,41,56 47-49; liquidating assets, economists, 51 149-150; response in disasters, 34-35,87; sphere of in' economy; collapse of, 6—7,15fluence, 56-57 16; energy dependence of, food production; central plan2-3; effect of ideology, 52; ning and, 70; comparison of, Great Depression, 24 expectations of collapse, 27-28; effect of biofuels, 104, greenhouse gas emissions, 108 ix-x; industrial, 54; promot119-120; importance of oil to, Greenspan, Alan, 51 Greer, John Michael, 2 ing development of, 56-57; 3; See also farming recovery in Soviet Union, food supply; comparison of, 16; Grenada, 39 13-14; recycling the remains in Soviet collapse, 82-87; in The Gulag Archipelago ( S o l of, 61; service-based, 129, zhenitsyn), 43 US, 87-89 154-158 Gulag program, 42-43,47 foreclosures, 62 education, 16,52,93-98 foreign debt, viii; See also bank- Gulf War, 2,38 elderly, 52,74-75,77 H ruptcy race election system, 55 foreign investors, 3,31 habitat destruction, 108 electricity, 104,120 forests, 86 health care. See medicine employment; alternatives to fossil fuels. See diesel; gasoline; health insurance, 91-93,118 salaries, 86; effect of ecoherbicides, 140 natural gas; oil nomic collapse, 69-73,77> ef- free markets, 102 Hezbollah, 57 fect of for-profit medicine, 91; Freud, Sigmund, 39 higher education, 96-98 middle-aged workers, 70,122, fuel cells, 4 highways, future uses of, 62 130; reducing dependence on fuels. See diesel; gasoline; natu- hitchhiking, 152 money, 133; skilled labor, 71Hitler, Adolf, 39 ral gas; oil hoarding, 61,70,80. See stockG 72,143-144 piling energy; imports, 15; service de- Gagarin, Yuri, 26 Homeland Security, 153 livery and, 156; supply sysGaidar, Yegor, 113 homelessness, 64,66 tem, 101-102; See also coal; gangs, 62 housing; comparison of, 16; efgasoline; natural gas; oil garden plots, 27,63,64,85,87, fect on families, 73; in Soviet enterprise software, 31,32-33 117,140 Union, 62-64,65-66; in US, ethanol; effect on food supply, gasoline, 9-10,50,67,88,119, 64-65 83,88-89,104; expectations 152 How Civilizations Fall: A for, 4; as solution, 119,120 Gazprom, 116 Theory of Catabolic Collapse ethnic cleansing, 62,66,116 General Accounting Office, 3 (Greer), 2 evictions, 62,64 genetic seed manipulation, 83 Hungary, 36 evil empires, 20,21,47-49 genocide, 62,116 extinction, 108 Georgia, 57,98 Hurricane Katrina, 34-35,49, F Germany, 41,104 87 Ghawar, Saudi Arabia, 102 factories, 145 hyperinflation, 12,50,51,61,77, families, 73-76 101 depression, 53,92 development assistance loans,

farming; comparison of, 27-28; depopulation of districts, 22; effect of biofuels, 104,119120; kitchen gardens, 85—86, 87,140; Soviet history of, 8284; value of land, 78 fascism, 138 fast food, 87 federal intelligence agencies, 150-151 Federal Reserve, 51 fertilizers, 28, 78, 84,140 finances; comparison of, 16; consumer goods and, 28; debt cancellation, 112; debtbased, 81-82 firearms, 99 fixed income, 52 flea markets, 121 flying, 153

INDEX

I IBM, 30 ideologies; disadvantages of, 116-118; identity and, 52-54; imposition of, 21; sphere of influence, 56—57 illiteracy, 98 immunization programs, 89 imports, 14,23,28,52,67,68, 104,116,121,145 inclusiveness myth, 23-25,67 income, 52,76,77; See also money individualism., 139 industrial economies, 53,54, 126 industrial infrastructure, 24 infectious diseases, 89 inflation, 50,52 information technology, 29-33 institutional food, 86 insurance, health, 91-93,118 insurgencies, 39-40 intellectual property laws, 30, 31,118 International Monetary Fund, 57

Internet, 30 investments, 61,120-122,155-

156 Iran, 21,56,58,103 Iraq; American oil access, 4 0 41; as boondoggle, n8;.expanding influence in, 56; invasion of Kuwait, 38; resource wars, 5-6,39,103; Soviet planes in, 26; terrorist attacks and, 107; travel in, 67 iron, 146 Israel, 57,67 Ivanov, Sergei, 37

j

jails, 78,112,134,148 jails race, 20,21,42-47 justice system, 44-46,60,134, 148 K Kasparov, Gary, 58 KGB, 150,151 Kbrusbcheby,

63

Knuth, Donald, 31-32 krugozor,

97

Kunstler, James Howard, 99 Kuwait, 38,102,103 Kyrgyzstan, 57

L law enforcement, 60,134,148 laws, 30,31-32,65 leadership, 49,117 legal system, 45,60,134,148 Lenin, Vladimir, 11,42 Leningrad, 9,85; See also St.

Petersburg liberalism, 113 life insurance, 92 literacy, 21,98 loans, 56-57, ii2,156 lower class, 24 luxuries, 130-132 M manufacturing, 80-81 martial law, 45 Maslow's hierarchy of needs, 130 McKinnon, Gary, 32 McNamara, Robert, 6 Medicare, 53,91-93 medicine; death and, 136-137; effect of ideology, 52; forprofit, 91; post-collapse, 151152; privatization of, 89-90; public/private interaction, 54; in Soviet Union, 89-90; in US, 91-93 Mencken, H.L., 146 Mexico, 47,89,102,103 middle class society, 24 middle-aged workers, 70,122, 130 military; abandonment of soldiers, 41,111-112; budget, viii; central planning and, 70; collapse prevention for, 116; comparison, 35-42; new power structures and, 62; support of industry, 54 military bases, 41 mine sites, ill Minsk, 11—12

163

N natural gas; agriculture and, 28; dependence on, 2-3; production levels, 8; US supply, 103104; wars over, 5-6 natural resource squandering race, 20 necessities, 130-132 needs, 156-157 New Deal, 24 nomadic lifestyle, 141-142 non-collateralized debt, 112 normalcy, loss of, 126-128 North Korea, 21,37,39 Novgorod, 10 nuclear power plants, 111 nuclear weapons, 6,36, no nurses, 151

O oil; alternatives, 101-103; arms trade and, 42; currency for, 49; deliveries of, 60-61; denial of shortages, 3-6; dependence on, 2-3; effect on economy, 22,51,82; global supply, 102-103; imports of, 52; production levels, viii, 3,8, 41; wars over, 5-6,38; as wealth, 78 opiates, 146 oppression, 45,55 Orange Revolution, 57 organized crime, 62,149 overpopulation, 108 ownership of property, 65 P Pakistan,go Palestine, 47 Panama, 39 Peak Oil, viii, 3-4 pensioners, 52,74-75, 77 perestroika, 7-14,48,127

Persian Gulf, 41 pesticides, 140 money; investing for the future, pharmaceutical companies, 54, 120-122; judicial system and, 89,91-92,151 44; as motivation, 23; reduc- photovoltaic cells, 4 ing dependence on, 132-133; planned obsolescence, 79-80, survival without, 76-79; 133- >56 value of, 10,11,78 plastics manufacturing, 3,80, Mongol invasion, 35,99 103 Montreal Protocol, 108 plutonium, 4 morbidity rates, 91 police, 148,149 mortality rates, 66,70,91,122 political interventions, 39,40 Moscow, 58,84-85 political system; activism, 116municipalities, 3,132,140

164

117,118; apathy, 114-115,117; central planning and, 70; during collapse, 60,61; reformation attempts, 113114 population, 7,23,108 possessions, 133 post-collapse; adaptation, 125142; careers, 143-158 poverty, 45,84,101 power, 116—118 power structures, emergence of, 61-62 prison system. Seejails; jails race prison wardens, 148 private ownership, 65 private sector, 60,69,115-116 private security consultants, 60-61,148-149 privatization, 145 problem solving, 118-120 prohibition, 10,146 property, 64-65,132 prostitution, 107 psychiatric imprisonment, 89 psychological insurance, 129130 psychological risk, 17,122-123 public assistance, 77 public health, 89-91 public ownership, 65 public sector, 60,69,70-71 public transportation, 25, 66-67 punishment, 157 Putin, Vladimir, 37,40 R racism, 98-99 radioactive materials, 111 radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags, 47 railroads, 53,68,73,153 Reagan, Ronald, 8,47 real estate, 64,65 Red Army, 39,41 relationships, 11,134,155-158 religion, 42,100-101 resources, 5-6,11,133 retirement funds, 121,122 retirement system, x, 53,115,118 retraining, 97 Roberts, Paul C., 5 Rose Revolution, 57 Russian Federation, 21 Russian Orthodox Church, 100-101

INDEX

S Saakashvili, Mikheil, 57 Saddam Hussein, 5,38 sailboats, 154 salaries, 13,14,70,71,86,149

T tar sands, 4 technology, 4-5,25-35 terrorism, viii, 39,58,78,150,153 tools, 143-144 towns, 140-141 samizdat, 128 toxic materials, 111 sanitation, 131 trade imbalance, viii, 29 Saudi Arabia, 102,103 traditional medicine, 151 * science and technology, 4-5, trains, 53,68,73,153 25-35 security; of communities, 141; transportation; canal system, 68, 142; comparison of, 16; depencomputer, 30,32; developdence on oil, 102; of food supment of, 60; post-collapse, ply, 87,88; infrastructure, 53; 147—149; private consultants, necessity of, 132; post-collapse, 60-61,148-149; of stock68-69,152-154; public, 66-67; piles, 143 trains, 53, 68,73,153; in US, Serbia, 57 67-68; without fuel, 142 serfdom, 83 troops, repatriation of, 41,111-112 service economy, 129,154-158 Tulip Revolution, 57 settled communities, 140-142 U shavers, 80-81 Shevardnadze, Eduard, 57 Ukraine, 57 shippingindustry, 3 United States; bankruptcy of, 22; shoes, 131 collapse mitigation, 109; colSignoret, Simone, 21 lapse of, 15-16,60-62; colskilled labor, 71-72,143-144 lapse-preparedness, 105; social equality, 21 comparison with Soviet Social Security, 53 Union, 1,20-22; value of dolsocial standards, 135—137 lar, 49-50 socialism, 8,21,52-54 United States Department of soldiers, 41,111-112,148 Defense, 3,32 Soviet Union; collapse mitiga- United States Treasury, 31,49 tion, 108—109; collapse of, 7- universal health care, 21 14; collapse-preparedness, universal health insurance, 92-93 105; comparison with US, universities, 96-98,116 20-22; services provided by, Uralmash, 116 59-60; view of US, 1 V space race, 20,26 Vietnam, 37,38,39 St. Petersburg, 9,12,58,131,145, villages, 140-141 violence, 148,157 i47» 152 vodka, 10,146-147 Stalin, Joseph, 42,43,109 W Stanislavsky, Constantin, 138 War on Terror, viii, 58 stockpiling; of consumer Warsaw Pact, 36,40 goods, 80,121-122; of food washing, 132 supply, 84,87; in public sector, 61,69,70; as solution, 78 water supplies, 111,130 suburbs, 64-65,139—140,144- water transportation, 68,142 wealth, 11,78 145 welfare reforms, 114 sugar cane, 104 Western medicine, 151 suicide, 70,122,136 superpowers; comparison of, 2, where to live, 139-142 20-58; conflict between, 19- work. See employment 20; services provided by, 59- Y 60 Yeltsin, Boris, 109,113 Yemen, 36 surveillance, 47 Yugoslavia, 98 survivalism, 120-121

A B O U T THE A U T H O R

DMITRY ORLOV was b o r n a n d grew u p in Leningrad, b u t has lived in t h e U n i t e d States since t h e mid-seventies. H e was an eyewitness to t h e Soviet collapse over several extended visits to his Russian h o m e l a n d between t h e late eighties a n d mid-nineties. H e is an engineer w h o has c o n t r i b u t e d to fields as diverse as high-energy Physics a n d I n t e r n e t security, as well as a leading Peak O i l theorist.

165

H a t the Souiet experience can teach us about the collapse of the United States. "...indispensable for anyone who seeks to understand the economic storm that is about to make landfall on our shores." — James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency

"Heretical, hysterically funny, always on point, deeply perceptive — Dmitry Orlov has been through a societal collapse and come out the other side..." — Sharon Astyk, author of Depletion & Abundance: Life on the New Home Front and blogger, www.sharonastyk.com

During the Souiet Union's collapse in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Dmitry Orlov went to see for himself the various stages of the disintegration of a superpower. What he saw was shocking and often surprising, as an empire ceased to exist and a society was forced to reorganize itself from top to bottom. The collapse of the United States may seem as unlikely right now as the demise of the Soviet Union appeared to be in 1988, but the warning signs read loud and clear: the American Dream is about to become a nightmare. Reinventing Collapse examines the circumstances of the Soviet fall. How did people manage day to day? Orlov looks at everything from food and transportation, to housing and a "radical cashectomy." It notes the differences and similarities between the US and the USSR in how the two cultures might deal with such massive change, and offers clear insights into how people in the US might prepare for coming events. Focusing on personal and cultural transformation, Orlov suggests there is room for optimism. With characteristic dark humor, he identifies three stages of response to the looming crisis: • Mitigation - alleviating the impact of the coming upheaval • Adaptation - adjusting to the reality of changed conditions • Opportunity - flourishing after the collapse. A tour de force of immense and timely proportions, Reinventing Collapse takes issues of energy, geopolitics and life in a post-Peak Oil world to a whole new level. "Be prepared to have your window shoved open and feel the fresh air shake you up. But don't worry, reading Dmitry Orlov usually just means gaining special insights with a strange, humorous twist." — Jan Lundberg, Culture Change

Dmitry Orlou was

born in Leningrad and immigrated to the United States at the age of 12 He was an eyewitness to the Soviet collapse over several extended visits to his Russiar homeland between the late eighties and mid-nineties. He is an engineer and a leading Peal Oil theorist whose writing is featured on such sites as powerswitch.org.uk, energybulletin.ne and lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. ISBN

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978-0-86571-60<

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