Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050: Strategic General Report of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Yongxiang Lu

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050 Strategic General Report of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Chinese Academy of Sciences

Yongxiang Lu Editor-in-Chief

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050 Strategic General Report of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

With 12 figures

Editor-in-Chief Yongxiang Lu The Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100864, China

ISBN 978-7-03-025385-9 Science Press Beijing ISBN 978-3-642-04822-7 e-ISBN 978-3-642-04823-4 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2009935457 © Science Press Beijing and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: Frido Steinen-Broo, EStudio Calamar, Spain Printed on acid-free paper Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

Editor-in-Chief Yongxiang Lu

Editorial Committee Yongxiang Lu

Chunli Bai

Erwei Shi

Xin Fang

Zhigang Li

Xiaoye Cao

Jiaofeng Pan

Writing Group of the General Report Xiaoye Cao

Jiaofeng Pan

Feng Zhang

Baichun Zhang

Lanxiang Zhao

Research Group on China’s S&T Roadmap for Priority Areas to 2050 (In the alphabetical order of Chinese surname) Guoxiang Ai Dong Chen Shupeng Chen Yaning Chen Ning Dai Yongjian Ding Ying Fan Xiaolan Fu Lizhi Gao Jianfang Gui Lei Guo Tianyao Hao Jianguo Hou Chunsheng Hu Heqing Huang Ningsheng Huang Guibin Jiang Tingyun Kuang Fenghua Li Jiangang Li Xiaosen Li Guanghui Lin Gongshe Liu Jianming Liu Wenzhao Liu Zhiheng Liu Dadao Lu Xiaorong Luo Jianwen Ma Fudi Ni Bo Qin Leqing Qu Jingkang Shen Yunyu Shi

Xinhe Bao Hesheng Chen Tian Chen Yong Chen Songyuan Dai Suocheng Dong Chuanglin Fang Feng Gao Xiaoshan Gao Aike Guo Hua Han Rongqiao He Xiyong Hou Dunxin Hu Hongwen Huang Peng Huang Jingshan Jiang Fuhai Leng Guojie Li Miao Li Yanmei Li Huimin Lin Guangding Liu Li Liu Xinhou Liu Zhiyong Liu Huimin Lu Daren Lv Li Ma Ziyuan Ouyang Dahe Qin Hongxuan Ren Qianhua Shen Zhongzhi Shi

Xianwu Bi Kaixian Chen Xi Chen Yunfa Chen Xiangdong Deng Enkui Duan Shouxian Fang Fu Gao Fuzhou Gong Guangcan Guo Jing Han Tianbai He Yijun Hou Ruizhong Hu Jikun Huang Weiguang Huang Xiaoming Jiang Chaolun Li Guomin Li Ping Li Yin Li Qishui Lin Guiju Liu Ruiyu Liu Yansui Liu Lijuan Long Ke Lu Long Lv Longlong Ma Feng Pan Song Qin Kangcheng Ruan Liusi Sheng Hong Song

Guotian Cai Lidong Chen Xiaolong Chen Zhiming Chen Yong Deng Ziyuan Duan Songlin Feng Hongjun Gao Xingfa Gu Huadong Guo Xingguo Han Maochun Hong Ziqiang Hou Wenrui Hu Jinchuan Huang Lucheng Ji Duo Jin Chuanrong Li Haoran Li Tiegang Li Yu Li Xiangdi Lin Guobin Liu Runqiu Liu Ying Liu Zhiping Lou Xiwu Luan Fengshan Ma Tingcan Ma Duanqing Pei Yunshan Qin Ming’an Shao Huli Shi Xianfang Song

Weiping Cai Runsheng Chen Yan Chen Shenghui Cui Zongwu Deng Jie Fan Xinbin Feng Liubin Gao Yidong Gu Jinghui Guo Yizhuo Han Baorong Hou Chaoqun Hu Zhiyong Hu Mingbin Huang Dongliang Jiang Fengjun Jin Chunlai Li Huiquan Li Tibei Li Zhensheng Li Changming Liu Haitao Liu Weidong Liu Zhenxing Liu Congming Lu Hongjie Luo Guanghui Ma Xiaowei Ma Hui Peng Jiuhui Qu Zhixiang She Ping Shi Ronghui Su

Roadmap 2050

Members of the Editorial Committee and the Editorial Office

Roadmap 2050

Bing Sun Wei Sun Anjun Tao Chi Wang Huijun Wang Shouyang Wang Yi Wang Baowen Wei Guojiang Wu Yirong Wu Liye Xiao Guifang Xing Honghua Xu Zhiwei Xu Luguang Yan Genqing Yang Xin Yang Guirui Yu Xiaogan Yu Zhenhong Yuan Aimin Zhang Jun Zhang Si Zhang Xinshi Zhang Yudong Zhang Qiguo Zhao Jiangning Zhou Jianqiang Zhu

Bo Sun Hong Tan Baonian Wan Daowen Wang Jianyu Wang Shudong Wang Yu Wang Yiming Wei Ji Wu Bin Xia Weigang Xiao Xuerong Xing Hongjie Xu Zhizhan Xu Qing Yan Guishan Yang Yonghui Yang Haibin Yu Yingjie Yu Zhibin Yuan Guofan Zhang Linxiu Zhang Wei Zhang Xu Zhang Daiqing Zhao Tong Zhao Mingjiang Zhou Yongguan Zhu

Huili Sun Ruobing Tan Fan Wang Dongxiao Wang Jiaqi Wang Tianran Wang Yuelin Wang Chuangzhi Wu Jiarui Wu Jun Xia Xianming Xiao Zhizhong Xing Jian Xu Qinzhao Xue Wen Yan Guozhen Yang Zhaoping Yang Jianrong Yu Yinglin Yu Zhiming Yuan Jiabao Zhang Pengjie Zhang Wensheng Zhang Xuejun Zhang Guoping Zhao Houzhi Zheng Shaoping Zhou Xuliang Zhuang

Lilin Sun Zongying Tan Chen Wang Feiyue Wang Jinxia Wang Wen Wang Zheng Wang Dexin Wu Shiguo Wu Jianhai Xiang Sishen Xie Yan Xiong Tao Xu Qunji Xue Yonglian Yan Hongsheng Yang Hong Yi Lu Yu Dongliang Yuan Zhigang Zeng Jiebin Zhang Qian Zhang Xiangsun Zhang Yaping Zhang Hongwu Zhao Junwei Zheng Xiangyu Zhou Yan Zhuo

Song Sun Zhangcheng Tang Chengjin Wang Haixia Wang Jiyang Wang Xianhong Wang Zhifeng Wang Dong Wu Xiangping Wu Libin Xiang Yi Xie Yonglan Xiong Zhigang Xu Jun Yan Changchun Yang Hui Yang Dong Yu Rencheng Yu Jianxia Yuan Mingguo Zhai Jifeng Zhang Shuangnan Zhang Xiaolei Zhang Yi Zhang Jingzhu Zhao Yuanyuan Zhong Daoben Zhu

Review Group (In the alphabetical order of Chinese surname) Chunli Bai Maicun Deng Fuxi Gan Ding Li Zhigang Li Erwei Shi Tingda Wang Guozhen Yang Wenlong Zhan

Xiaoye Cao Zhongli Ding Yan He Jiayang Li Yongxiang Lu Zhaobing Su Zhanguo Wang Le Yang Zhibin Zhang

Xiaoya Chen Xin Fang Qiheng Hu Jinghai Li Ziyuan Ouyang Tieniu Tan Zhizhen Wang Shengli Yang Daoben Zhu

Yiyu Chen Bojie Fu Mianheng Jiang Wenhua Li Jiaofeng Pan Jing Tian Libin Xiang Danian Ye

Ruwei Dai Congbin Fu Li Kong Zhensheng Li Yunshan Qin Enge Wang Jianzhong Xu Hejun Yin

Cheng Tao

Li Xiao

Secretariat Feng Zhang

Wenyuan Wang

Lanxiang Zhao

English Translation & Revision Ang Xu

Haiyan Guo

Foreword

*

China’s modernization is viewed as a transformative revolution in the human history of modernization. As such, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) decided to give higher priority to the research on the science and technology (S&T) roadmap for priority areas in China’s modernization process. What is the purpose? And why is it? Is it a must? I think those are substantial and significant questions to start things forward.

Significance of the Research on China’s S&T Roadmap to 2050 We are aware that the National Mid- and Long-term S&T Plan to 2020 has already been formed after two years’ hard work by a panel of over 2000 experts and scholars brought together from all over China, chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao. This clearly shows that China has already had its S&T blueprint to 2020. Then, why did CAS conduct this research on China’s S&T roadmap to 2050? In the summer of 2007 when CAS was working out its future strategic priorities for S&T development, it realized that some issues, such as energy, must be addressed with a long-term view. As a matter of fact, some strategic researches have been conducted, over the last 15 years, on energy, but mainly on how to best use of coal, how to best exploit both domestic and international oil and gas resources, and how to develop nuclear energy in a discreet way. Renewable energy was, of course, included but only as a supplementary energy. It was not yet thought as a supporting leg for future energy development. However, greenhouse gas emissions are becoming a major world concern over

* It is adapted from a speech by President Yongxiang Lu at the first High-level Workshop on China’s S&T Roadmap for Priority Areas to 2050, organized by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in October, 2007.

Roadmap 2050

the years, and how to address the global climate change has been on the agenda. In fact, what is really behind is the concern for energy structure, which makes us realize that fossil energy must be used cleanly and efficiently in order to reduce its impact on the environment. However, fossil energy is, pessimistically speaking, expected to be used up within about 100 years, or optimistically speaking, within about 200 years. Oil and gas resources may be among the first to be exhausted, and then coal resources follow. When this happens, human beings will have to refer to renewable energy as its major energy, while nuclear energy as a supplementary one. Under this situation, governments of the world are taking preparatory efforts in this regard, with Europe taking the lead and the USA shifting to take a more positive attitude, as evidenced in that: while fossil energy has been taken the best use of, renewable energy has been greatly developed, and the R&D of advanced nuclear energy has been reinforced with the objective of being eventually transformed into renewable energy. The process may last 50 to 100 years or so. Hence, many S&T problems may come around. In the field of basic research, for example, research will be conducted by physicists, chemists and biologists on the new generation of photovoltaic cell, dye-sensitized solar cells (DSC), high-efficient photochemical catalysis and storage, and efficient photosynthetic species, or high-efficient photosynthetic species produced by gene engineering which are free from land and water demands compared with food and oil crops, and can be grown on hillside, saline lands and semi-arid places, producing the energy that fits humanity. In the meantime, although the existing energy system is comparatively stable, future energy structure is likely to change into an unstable system. Presumably, dispersive energy system as well as higher-efficient direct current transmission and storage technology will be developed, so will be the safe and reliable control of network, and the capture, storage, transfer and use of CO2, all of which involve S&T problems in almost all scientific disciplines. Therefore, it is natural that energy problems may bring out both basic and applied research, and may eventually lead to comprehensive structural changes. And this may last for 50 to 100 years or so. Taking the nuclear energy as an example, it usually takes about 20 years or more from its initial plan to key technology breakthroughs, so does the subsequent massive application and commercialization. If we lose the opportunity to make foresighted arrangements, we will be lagging far behind in the future. France has already worked out the roadmap to 2040 and 2050 respectively for the development of the 3rd and 4th generation of nuclear fission reactors, while China has not yet taken any serious actions. Under this circumstance, it is now time for CAS to take the issue seriously, for the sake of national interests, and to start conducting a foresighted research in this regard. This strategic research covers over some dozens of areas with a longterm view. Taking agriculture as an example, our concern used to be limited only to the increased production of high-quality food grains and agricultural by-products. However, in the future, the main concern will definitely be given to the water-saving and ecological agriculture. As China is vast in territory, · viii ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Population is another problem. It will be most likely that China’s population will not drop to about 1 billion until the end of this century, given that the past mistakes of China’s population policy be rectified. But the subsequent problem of ageing could only be sorted out until the next century. The current population and health policies face many challenges, such as, how to ensure that the 1.3 to 1.5 billion people enjoy fair and basic public healthcare; the necessity to develop advanced and public healthcare and treatment technologies; and the change of research priority to chronic diseases from infectious diseases, as developed countries have already started research in this regard under the increasing social and environmental change. There are many such research problems yet to be sorted out by starting from the basic research, and subsequent policies within the next 50 years are in need to be worked out. Space and oceans provide humanity with important resources for future development. In terms of space research, the well-known Manned Spacecraft Program and China’s Lunar Exploration Program will last for 20 or 25 years. But what will be the whole plan for China’s space technology? What is the objective? Will it just follow the suit of developed countries? It is worth doing serious study in this regard. The present spacecraft is mainly sent into space with chemical fuel propellant rocket. Will this traditional propellant still be used in future deep space exploration? Or other new technologies such as electrical propellant, nuclear energy propellant, and solar sail technologies be developed? We haven’t yet done any strategic research over these issues, not even worked out any plans. The ocean is abundant in mineral resources, oil and gas, natural gas hydrate, biological resources, energy and photo-free biological evolution, which may arise our scientific interests. At present, many countries have worked out new strategic marine plans. Russia, Canada, the USA, Sweden and Norway have centered their contention upon the North Pole, an area of strategic significance. For this, however, we have only limited plans. The national and public security develops with time, and covers both Foreword

· ix ·

Roadmap 2050

diversified technologies in this regard are the appropriate solutions. Animal husbandry has been used by developed countries, such as Japan and Denmark, to make bioreactor and pesticide as well. Plants have been used by Japan to make bioreactors which are safer and cost-effective than that made from animals. Potato, strawberry, tomato and the like have been bred in germfree greenhouses, and value-added products have been made through gene transplantation technology. Agriculture in China must not only address the food demands from its one billions-plus population, but also take into consideration of the value-added agriculture by-products and the high-tech development of agriculture as well. Agriculture in the future is expected to bring out some energies and fuels needed by both industry and man’s livelihood as well. Some developed countries have taken an earlier start to conduct foresighted research in this regard, while we have not yet taken sufficient consideration.

Roadmap 2050

conventional and non-conventional security. Conventional security threats only refer to foreign invasion and warfare, while, the present security threat may come out from any of the natural, man-made, external, interior, ecological, environmental, and the emerging networking (including both real and virtual) factors. The conflicts out of these must be analyzed from the perspective of human civilization, and be sorted out in a scientific manner. Efforts must be made to root out the cause of the threats, while human life must be treasured at any time. In general, it is necessary to conduct this strategic research in view of the future development of China and mankind as well. The past 250 years’ industrialization has resulted in the modernization and better-off life of less than 1 billion people, predominantly in Europe, North America, Japan and Singapore. The next 50 years’ modernization drive will definitely lead to a better-off life for 2–3 billion people, including over 1 billion Chinese, doubling or tripling the economic increase over that of the past 250 years, which will, on the one hand, bring vigor and vitality to the world, and, on the other hand, inevitably challenge the limited resources and eco-environment on the earth. New development mode must be shaped so that everyone on the earth will be able to enjoy fairly the achievements of modern civilization. Achieving this requires us, in the process of China’s modernization, to have a foresighted overview on the future development of world science and human civilization, and on how science and technology could serve the modernization drive. S&T roadmap for priority areas to 2050 must be worked out, and solutions to core science problems and key technology problems must be straightened out, which will eventually provide consultations for the nation’s S&T decision-making.

Possibility of Working out China’s S&T Roadmap to 2050 Some people held the view that science is hard to be predicted as it happens unexpectedly and mainly comes out of scientists’ innovative thinking, while, technology might be predicted but at the maximum of 15 years. In my view, however, S&T foresight in some areas seems feasible. For instance, with the exhaustion of fossil energy, some smart people may think of transforming solar energy into energy-intensive biomass through improved high-efficient solar thinfilm materials and devices, or even developing new substitute. As is driven by huge demands, many investments will go to this emerging area. It is, therefore, able to predict that, in the next 50 years, some breakthroughs will undoubtedly be made in the areas of renewable energy and nuclear energy as well. In terms of solar energy, for example, the improvement of photoelectric conversion efficiency and photothermal conversion efficiency will be the focus. Of course, the concrete technological solutions may be varied, for example, by changing the morphology of the surface of solar cells and through the reflection, the entire spectrum can be absorbed more efficiently; by developing multi-layer functional thin-films for transmission and absorption; or by introducing of nanotechnology and quantum control technology, etc. Quantum control research used to limit mainly to the solution to information functional materials. This is surely too narrow. In the ·x·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

In terms of computing science, we must be confident to forecast its future development instead of simply following suit as we used to. This is a possibility rather than wild fancies. Information scientists, physicists and biologists could be engaged in the forward-looking research. In 2007, the Nobel Physics Prize was awarded to the discovery of colossal magneto-resistance, which was, however, made some 20 years ago. Today, this technology has already been applied to hard disk store. Our conclusion made, at this stage, is that: it is possible to make long-term and unconventional S&T predictions, and so is it to work out China’s S&T roadmap in view of long-term strategies, for example, by 2020 as the first step, by 2030 or 2035 as the second step, and by 2050 as the maximum. This possibility may also apply to other areas of research. The point is to emancipate the mind and respect objective laws rather than indulging in wild fancies. We attribute our success today to the guidelines of emancipating the mind and seeking the truth from the facts set by the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 1979. We must break the conventional barriers and find a way of development fitting into China’s reality. The history of science tells us that discoveries and breakthroughs could only be made when you open up your mind, break the conventional barriers, and make foresighted plans. Top-down guidance on research with increased financial support and involvement of a wider range of talented scientists is not in conflict with demand-driven research and free discovery of science as well.

Necessity of CAS Research on China’s S&T Roadmap to 2050 Why does CAS launch this research? As is known, CAS is the nation’s highest academic institution in natural sciences. It targets at making basic, forward-looking and strategic research and playing a leading role in China’s science. As such, how can it achieve this if without a foresighted view on science and technology? From the perspective of CAS, it is obligatory to think, with a global view, about what to do after the 3rd Phase of the Knowledge Innovation Program (KIP). Shall we follow the way as it used to? Or shall we, with a view of national interests, present our in-depth insights into different research disciplines, and make efforts to reform the organizational structure and system, so that the innovation capability of CAS and the nation’s science and technology mission will be raised to a new height? Clearly, the latter is more positive. World science and technology develops at a lightening speed. As global economy grows, we are aware that we will be lagging far behind if without making progress, and will lose the opportunity if without making foresighted plans. S&T innovation requires us to make joint efforts, break the conventional barriers and emancipate the mind. This is also what we need for further development. Foreword

· xi ·

Roadmap 2050

future, this research is expected to be extended to the energy issue or energybased basic research in cutting-edge areas.

Roadmap 2050

The roadmap must be targeted at the national level so that the strategic research reports will form an important part of the national long-term program. CAS may not be able to fulfill all the objectives in the reports. However, it can select what is able to do and make foresighted plans, which will eventually help shape the post-2010 research priorities of CAS and the guidelines for its future reform. Once the long-term roadmap and its objectives are identified, system mechanism, human resources, funding and allocation should be ensured for full implementation. We will make further studies to figure out: What will happen to world innovation system within the next 30 to 50 years? Will universities, research institutions and enterprises still be included in the system? Will research institutes become grid structure? When the cutting-edge research combines basic science and high-tech and the transformative research integrates the cutting-edge research with industrialization, will that be the research trend in some disciplines? What will be the changes for personnel structure, motivation mechanism and upgrading mechanism within the innovation system? Will there be any changes for the input and structure of innovation resources? If we could have a clear mind of all the questions, make foresighted plans and then dare to try out in relevant CAS institutes, we will be able to pave a way for a more competitive and smooth development. Social changes are without limit, so are the development of science and technology, and innovation system and management as well. CAS must keep moving ahead to make foresighted plans not only for science and technology, but also for its organizational structure, human resources, management modes, and resource structures. By doing so, CAS will keep standing at the forefront of science and playing a leading role in the national innovation system, and even, frankly speaking, taking the lead in some research disciplines in the world. This is, in fact, our purpose of conducting the strategic research on China’s S&T roadmap.

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Yongxiang Lu President of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

· xii ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

CAS is the nation’s think tank for science. Its major responsibility is to provide S&T consultations for the nation’s decision-makings and to take the lead in the nation’s S&T development. In July, 2007, President Yongxiang Lu made the following remarks: “In order to carry out the Scientific Outlook of Development through innovation, further strategic research should be done to lay out a S&T roadmap for the next 20–30 years and key S&T innovation disciplines. And relevant workshops should be organized with the participation of scientists both within CAS and outside to further discuss the research priorities and objectives. We should no longer confine ourselves to the free discovery of science, the quantity and quality of scientific papers, nor should we satisfy ourselves simply with the Principal Investigators system of research. Research should be conducted to address the needs of both the nation and society, in particular, the continued growth of economy and national competitiveness, the development of social harmony, and the sustainability between man and nature. ” According to the Executive Management Committee of CAS in July, 2007, CAS strategic research on S&T roadmap for future development should be conducted to orchestrate the needs of both the nation and society, and target at the three objectives: the growth of economy and national competitiveness, the development of social harmony, and the sustainability between man and nature. In August, 2007, President Yongxiang Lu further put it: “Strategic research requires a forward-looking view over the world, China, and science & technology in 2050. Firstly, in terms of the world in 2050, we should be able to study the perspectives of economy, society, national security, eco-environment, and science & technology, specifically in such scientific disciplines as energy, resources, population, health, information, security, eco-environment, space and oceans. And we should be aware of where the opportunities and challenges lie. Secondly, in terms of China’s economy and society in 2050, we should take into consideration of factors like: objectives, methods, and scientific supports needed for economic structure, social development, energy structure, population and health, eco-environment, national security and innovation capability. Thirdly, in terms of the guidance of Scientific Outlook of Development on science and technology, it emphasizes the people’s interests and development, science and technology, science and economy, science and society, science and eco-

Roadmap 2050

Preface

Roadmap 2050

environment, science and culture, innovation and collaborative development. Fourthly, in terms of the supporting role of research in scientific development, this includes how to optimize the economic structure and boost economy, agricultural development, energy structure, resource conservation, recycling economy, knowledge-based society, harmonious coexistence between man and nature, balance of regional development, social harmony, national security, and international cooperation. Based on these, the role of CAS will be further identified.” Subsequently, CAS launched its strategic research on the roadmap for priority areas to 2050, which comes into eighteen categories including: energy, water resources, mineral resources, marine resources, oil and gas, population and health, agriculture, eco-environment, biomass resources, regional development, space, information, advanced manufacturing, advanced materials, nano-science, big science facilities, cross-disciplinary and frontier research, and national and public security. Over 300 CAS experts in science, technology, management and documentation & information, including about 60 CAS members, from over 80 CAS institutes joined this research. Over one year’s hard work, substantial progress has been made in each research group of the scientific disciplines. The strategic demands on priority areas in China’s modernization drive to 2050 have been strengthened out; some core science problems and key technology problems been set forth; a relevant S&T roadmap been worked out based on China’s reality; and eventually the strategic reports on China’s S&T roadmap for eighteen priority areas to 2050 been formed. Under the circumstance, both the Editorial Committee and Writing Group, chaired by President Yongxiang Lu, have finalized the general report. The research reports are to be published in the form of CAS strategic research serial reports, entitled Science and Technology Roadmap to China 2050: Strategic Reports of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The unique feature of this strategic research is its use of S&T roadmap approach. S&T roadmap differs from the commonly used planning and technology foresight in that it includes science and technology needed for the future, the roadmap to reach the objectives, description of environmental changes, research needs, technology trends, and innovation and technology development. Scientific planning in the form of roadmap will have a clearer scientific objective, form closer links with the market, projects selected be more interactive and systematic, the solutions to the objective be defined, and the plan be more feasible. In addition, by drawing from both the foreign experience on roadmap research and domestic experience on strategic planning, we have formed our own ways of making S&T roadmap in priority areas as follows: (1) Establishment of organization mechanism for strategic research on S&T roadmap for priority areas The Editorial Committee is set up with the head of President Yongxiang Lu and · xiv ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

(2) Setting up principles for the S&T roadmap for priority areas The framework of roadmap research should be targeted at the national level, and divided into three steps as immediate-term (by 2020), mid-term (by 2030) and long-term (by 2050). It should cover the description of job requirements, objectives, specific tasks, research approaches, and highlight core science problems and key technology problems, which must be, in general, directional, strategic and feasible. (3) Selection of expertise for strategic research on the S&T roadmap Scholars in science policy, management, information and documentation, and chief scientists of the middle-aged and the young should be selected to form a special research group. The head of the group should be an outstanding scientist with a strategic vision, strong sense of responsibility and coordinative capability. In order to steer the research direction, chief scientists should be selected as the core members of the group to ensure that the strategic research in priority areas be based on the cutting-edge and frontier research. Information and documentation scholars should be engaged in each research group to guarantee the efficiency and systematization of the research through data collection and analysis. Science policy scholars should focus on the strategic demands and their feasibility. (4) Organization of regular workshops at different levels Workshops should be held as a leverage to identify concrete research steps and ensure its smooth progress. Five workshops have been organized consecutively in the following forms: High-level Workshop on S&T Strategies. Three workshops on S&T strategies have been organized in October, 2007, December, 2007, and June, 2008, respectively, with the participation of research group heads in eighteen priority areas, chief scholars, and relevant top CAS management members. Information has been exchanged, and consensus been reached to ensure research directions. During the workshops, President Yongxiang Lu pinpointed the significance, necessity and possibility of the roadmap research, and commented on the work of each research groups, thus pushing the research forward. Special workshops. The Editorial Committee invited science policy Preface

· xv ·

Roadmap 2050

the involvement of Chunli Bai, Erwei Shi, Xin Fang, Zhigang Li, Xiaoye Cao and Jiaofeng Pan. And the Writing Group was organized to take responsibility of the research and writing of the general report. CAS Bureau of Planning and Strategy, as the executive unit, coordinates the research, selects the scholars, identifies concrete steps and task requirements, sets forth research approaches, and organizes workshops and independent peer reviews of the research, in order to ensure the smooth progress of the strategic research on the S&T roadmap for priority areas.

Roadmap 2050

scholars to the special workshops to discuss the eight basic and strategic systems for China’s socio-economic development. Perspectives on China’s sciencedriven modernization to 2050 and characteristics and objectives of the eight systems have been outlined, and twenty-two strategic S&T problems affecting the modernization have been figured out. Research group workshops. Each research group was further divided into different research teams based on different disciplines. Group discussions, team discussions and cross-team discussions were organized for further research, occasionally with the involvement of related scholars in special topic discussions. Research group workshops have been held some 70 times. Cross-group workshops. Cross-group and cross-disciplinary workshops were organized, with the initiation by relative research groups and coordination by Bureau of Planning and Strategies, to coordinate the research in relative disciplines. Professional workshops. These workshops were held to have the suggestions and advices of both domestic and international professionals over the development and strategies in related disciplines. (5) Establishment of a peer review mechanism for the roadmap research To ensure the quality of research reports and enhance coordination among different disciplines, a workshop on the peer review of strategic research on the S&T roadmap was organized by CAS Bureau of Planning and Strategy, in November, 2008, bringing together of about 30 peer review experts and 50 research group scholars. The review was made in four different categories, namely, resources and environment, strategic high-technology, bio-science & technology, and basic research. Experts listened to the reports of different research groups, commented on the general structure, what’s new and existing problems, and presented their suggestions and advices. The outcomes were put in the written forms and returned to the research groups for further revisions. (6) Establishment of a sustained mechanism for the roadmap research To cope with the rapid change of world science and technology and national demands, a roadmap is, by nature, in need of sustained study, and should be revised once in every 3–5 years. Therefore, a panel of science policy scholars should be formed to keep a constant watch on the priority areas and key S&T problems for the nation’s long-term benefits and make further study in this regard. And hopefully, more science policy scholars will be trained out of the research process. The serial reports by CAS have their contents firmly based on China’s reality while keeping the future in view. The work is a crystallization of the scholars’ wisdom, written in a careful and scrupulous manner. Herewith, our sincere gratitude goes to all the scholars engaged in the research, consultation · xvi ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

To precisely predict the future is extremely challenging. This strategic research covered a wide range of areas and time, and adopted new research approaches. As such, the serial reports may have its deficiency due to the limit in knowledge and assessment. We, therefore, welcome timely advice and enlightening remarks from a much wider circle of scholars around the world. The publication of the serial reports is a new start instead of the end of the strategic research. With this, we will further our research in this regard, duly release the research results, and have the roadmap revised every five years, in an effort to provide consultations to the state decision-makers in science, and give suggestions to science policy departments, research institutions, enterprises, and universities for their S&T policy-making. Raising the public awareness of science and technology is of great significance for China’s modernization.

Writing Group of the General Report February, 2009

Preface

· xvii ·

Roadmap 2050

and review. It is their joint efforts and hard work that help to enable the serial reports to be published for the public within only one year.

Introduction ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 1

1

The World is at the Eve of a New S&T RevolutionĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 7 1.1 Modernization Calls for a New S&T RevolutionĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ7 1.2 Signs and Possible Directions of S&T Revolution ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 22

2

The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 28 2.1 China Must Be Fully Prepared for an Impending S&T RevolutionĂĂĂĂ 28 2.2 New Demands on S&T Innovation in China’s Modernization Process ĂĂ 35

3

China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development  ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 42 3.1 The System of Sustainable Energy and ResourcesĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 42 3.2 The Green System of Advanced Materials and Intelligent ManufacturingĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 51 3.3 The System of Ubiquitous Information NetworkingĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 58 3.4 The System of Ecological and High-value Agriculture and Biological IndustryĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 63 3.5 The Generally Applicable Health Assurance System ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 68 3.6 The Development System of Ecological and Environmental ConservationĂ74 3.7 The Expanded System of Space and Ocean Exploration CapabilityĂĂĂ 81

Roadmap 2050

Contents

Roadmap 2050

3.8 The National and Public Security SystemĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 89

4

Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 92 4.1 Six S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s International Competitiveness ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 92 4.2 Seven S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s SustainabilityĂ 98 4.3 Two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s National and Public Security ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 107 4.4 Four Basic Science Initiatives Likely to Make Transformative Breakthroughs ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 109 4.5 Three Emerging Initiatives of Cross-disciplinary and Cutting-edge ResearchĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 112

5

S&T Innovation with Chinese CharacteristicsĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 115 5.1 Relying on Domestic Efforts and Effectively Integrating the Global Innovation Resources in Line with Opening to the Outside WorldĂĂĂ 117 5.2 Assembling and Cultivating Talents via Innovation Practice in Line with the Principle of Putting People FirstĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 120 5.3 Integrating the Market’s Primary Role and the Government’s Macro-regulation in Line with China’s Reality ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 125 5.4 Ensuring Division of Labor and Cooperation among Stakeholders in the National Innovation System in Line with Deepening ReformĂĂĂĂĂĂ 127 5.5 Promoting Innovation through Management Innovation in Line with Integrated Planning ĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂĂ 131

· xx ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Science and technology is the engine to human modernization, and is also the major solution to the economic crisis. The global financial crisis caused by the subprime credit crisis of the USA undermines the economic entity. This may give rise to the possibility of a global economic crisis and lead to a great change for world economic structure. History tells us that any global economic crisis always expedites great S&T innovation and breakthroughs. And that employing S&T innovation to boost economy and upgrading the development mode is the fundamental way-out of the economic crisis. For instance, the two major technology revolutions, electric revolution and electronic revolution broke out following the global economic crises in 1857 and 1929 respectively. The current financial crisis will speed up the progress of science and innovation, and may eventually lead to a new revolution in science and technology within the next 10–20 years. This is a huge challenge for us, but, at the same time, a great opportunity for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The current global financial crisis has already hit China’s economy. This has set higher demands on China’s science professionals that greater efforts must be made to employ science and innovation to ensure economic growth, boost domestic demands and consumption, and adjust industrial structure. In the final analysis, the employment of S&T innovation to adjust industrial structure, to boost economy and to sort out the development mode is the best solution to the economic crisis. We must be able to foresee world science development, make overall arrangements for China’s S&T strategies, and sort out the priority areas and the solutions to the key S&T problems which may affect China’s modernization by 2050. We must energize innovation with Chinese characteristics to make overall arrangements, figure out the priorities, and prepare for the impending S&T revolution. We must vigorously support China’s science and its sustainability, and build up an innovation-driven country by modern science. The world is at the eve of a new round of S&T revolution, which happens as a consequence of the powerful demands of modernization, and innovation and transformative breakthroughs in knowledge and technology system. Looking at the world modernization process, the conflict between the magnificent drive towards modernization by over 3 billion people, including Chinese, in an effort to have a better-off life and the decreased natural resources and deteriorating eco-environment becomes increasingly sharp. It

Roadmap 2050

Introduction

Roadmap 2050

will be difficult to continue the conventional mode of economic growth with the sacrifice of non-renewable natural resources and eco-environment, or by grabbing world resources as some countries used to do. We must develop with a scientific, coordinative and sustainable manner, and call for transformative breakthroughs and revolution in science and technology. Looking at the current world S&T development, the first half of the 20th century witnessed the major scientific discoveries that established the foundation of modern science and technology. “The Silence of Science” has so far remained for over 60 years. Mass conflicts within the knowledge-based system gradually emerge. There are now signs of transformative breakthroughs in some key S&T problems, as evidenced in the scientific areas: the regulation of mass and energy, quantum information monitoring and transmission, genetic heredity, variation and evolution, synthetic biology, brain structure and function, cognition, and evolution of earth systems, and in the strategic areas: energy, resources, information, advanced materials, modern agriculture, population and health. Looking back at the modernization history, every great revolution was closely linked with transformative breakthroughs in science and technology, which had a far-reaching impact on the rise and fall of a nation and the destiny of a country as well. The countries that were able to seize the opportunity and achieve the economic take-off had taken the lead in fulfilling modernization. While, China, because of its repeated loss of the opportunity in modern history, fell from a world economic power into a poverty-stricken country, subject to insult and humiliation by other powers. In the face of the opportune moment of an impending S&T revolution and with the strategic objectives in mind to achieve modernization and a better-off society, China can no longer afford to lose this opportunity, but must be fully prepared itself for it. This general report describes the prospects of China’s modernization in 2050 in terms of politics, economy, culture, society, conservation culture, and opening-up to the outside. It sets forth the perspectives of building up eight basic and strategic systems for socio-economic development with the support of science and technology, and lays out the characteristics and objectives of the eight systems at different stages. Firstly, in terms of the system of sustainable energy and resources, efforts must be done to improve the efficient use of energy and resources, to prospect the strategic resources such as those in the continental shelf and deep earth, and to develop new energy, renewable energy and replaceable energy. Secondly, in terms of the green system of advanced materials and intelligent manufacturing, efforts must be done to speed up the process of introducing environmental-friendly, intelligent and cyclic renewable technologies in fabricating materials and manufacturing products, to promote the updating of the manufacturing structure and strategies, and to ensure the effective supporting of materials and equipments for the progress of China’s modernization, and the related clean, high efficient, cyclic renewable utilization. Thirdly, in terms of the system of ubiquitous information networking, efforts must be done to promote technologies such as intellectual broadband wireless ·2·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Introduction

·3·

Roadmap 2050

networking, network super-computing, advanced sensing & display and reliable software, to speed up the growth, raise the application level, and eliminate digital divide. We need to explore a path of sustainable development featuring universal adoption of trustworthy and low-cost IT. Fourthly, in terms of the system of ecological and high-value agriculture and biological industry, efforts must be done to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, and facilitate smooth transformation of China’s agriculture toward high-yield, high-quality, high-efficient and eco-friendly agriculture, and that will also improve China’s food safety. Fifthly, in terms of the generally applicable health assurance system for China’s one billion-plus population, efforts must be done to transform the therapy-oriented medicine to a system based on predictive intervention, to combine the frontier life science with the strength of traditional Chinese medicine, and strive for taking a leading role in world health. Sixthly, in terms of the development system of ecological and environmental conservation in favor of the coexistence between man and nature, efforts must be done to completely recognize the laws governing environmental evolution, to raise China’s capabilities in eco-environmental monitoring, protection, restoration and in tackling the global climate change, and enhance its ability in the prediction, prevention and alleviation of natural disasters. Related technologies and measures must be developed in order to provide the total solutions. Seventhly, in terms of the expanded system of space and ocean exploration capability, efforts must be made to improve China’s ocean exploration and application ability, ocean resources development and utilization ability, space science and technology ability, and the ability of earth observation and multispatial information application. Eighthly, in terms of the national and public security system, efforts must be made to develop both conventional and nonconventional security technologies, and to improve its monitoring, early warning, and quick-response capacity. Based on the eight basic and strategic systems, the general report has laid out the S&T roadmap and sorted out twenty-two S&T initiatives of strategic importance to China’s modernization as follows. The first is the six S&T initiatives of strategic importance to China’s international competitiveness, including: new principles and technologies of “Post-IP” network and its testbeds, green production of high-quality raw materials, process engineering of high-efficient, clean, and cyclic utilization of resources, ubiquitous informationized manufacturing system, Exa (1018) supercomputing technology, molecular design of animal and plant products in agriculture. The second is the seven S&T initiatives of strategic importance to China’s sustainability, including: “4,000 meter transparence underground” program, new renewable energy power systems, deep geothermal energy power generation, a new nuclear energy system, a marine capacity expansion plan, stem cell and regenerative medicine, early diagnosis and systematic intervention of major chronic diseases. The third is the two S&T initiatives of strategic importance to China’s national and public security, including: space situation awareness network (SSAN),

Roadmap 2050

and social computing & parallel management systems (PMS). The forth is the four basic science initiatives likely to make transformative breakthroughs, including: exploration of dark matter and dark energy, controlling the structure of matter, artificial life and synthetic biology, and mechanism of photosynthesis. The fifth is the three emerging initiatives of cross-disciplinary and cuttingedge research, including: nano-science and technology, space exploration and satellite series, and mathematics and complex systems. These S&T initiatives of strategic importance have not yet or not sufficiently been laid out in the existing national S&T plans. As such, actions must be taken, at the national level, to mobilize integrated resources to accomplish large undertakings, under China’s unique political and institutional system. Such measure as precursory projects, key research programs, or research priority clusters must be employed for further implementation, scientific plans be worked out, overall plans be made, division of labor as well as cooperation be adopted, and key research projects be tackled. By doing everything we can, breakthroughs in scientific theories and transformative innovation in key technology and system integration are expected to be achieved. The eight basic and strategic systems for socio-economic development must be carried out by employing S&T innovation in line with objective laws and China’s reality, and achieving the strategic transform from imitation to innovation. S&T innovation with Chinese characteristics means that we must adopt the following approaches: relying on domestic efforts and effectively integrating the global innovation resources in line with opening to the outside world; assembling and cultivating talented people via innovation practice in line with the principle of putting people first; integrating the market’s primary role and the government’s macro-regulation based on China’s reality; ensuring division of labor as well as cooperation among stakeholders of the national innovation system in line with deepening reform; and promoting S&T innovation through management innovation in line with comprehensive planning.

The Economic Crisis of 1857–1858 The economic crisis of 1857 was the first world crisis of overproduction in the capitalist history. Before the outbreak of the crisis, the world economy increased at a high speed. The UK abolished Corn Laws ushered in the ideological trend of free trade. World market rapidly expanded and quantum of world trade rocketed. The UK entered a seven-year period of prosperity after 1850, which drove the economic prosperity of other countries. In 1850–1857, the capital in American industries and transportation increase sharply, half of which was attributable to British bonds and

·4·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

World Economic Crisis of the 1930s The 1929–1933 economic crisis was the most serious world-wide economic crisis in the 20th century, also called “the Great Depression of the 1930s”. It was triggered by the nosedive of American stocks in October 1929, when the New York stock market crashed which started an unprecedented financial crisis in history. The January of 1933 witnessed an average of 82.8% drop in the prices of 30 industrial stocks, 80.3% drop in the prices of 20 public utility stocks, and 84.4% drop in the prices of 20 railway stocks. By July 1933, 5/6 of the stock value in American stock market vanished. The bankruptcy of such large German banks as Darmstadt and Dresden caused credit crisis, followed by South American and East European banks getting stuck. Bank credit crisis broke out in the USA in 1933 which led to the subsequent worldwide breakdown of gold standard system. In 1929–1933,

Introduction

·5·

Roadmap 2050

stocks. Driven by enormous profits, credit highly expanded and speculation was rampant. In Fall 1857, those importers and exporters who relied on bad checks or export credit first went bankrupt in a huge number, and then banks closed down. Monetary crisis first broke out in the USA, and reached its peak in mid October, when 62 out of 63 banks in New York stopped payment. The entire bank system went into paralysis, and the stock market fell by 20%–50%, with stocks of many railway companies downward by more than 80%. The American monetary crisis quickly went rampant to real economy. In 1857 alone, almost 5000 American enterprises went bankrupt. The output of American metallurgical and textile industries declined by 20%–30%, and railway constructions by a half and shipbuilding by 3/4. Due to the impact of Russian crops, crop prices decreased considerably. The American banks, railway and commercial companies whose capital was provided by the UK went bankrupt one after another, leading to the crisis rampant to Britain and the European Continent. In December 1857, the output of British industries plummeted by a half. Textile, metallurgical, and coal industries stopped work or reduced production on a large scale, and commodity prices declined drastically. The situation was even worse in France, where the railway construction shrunk by over 2/3, and the prices of silk textile goods descended by 30%–40% and the prices of crops by a half. Neither did Germany luckily escape. By the end of 1857, the output of its cotton textile industry fell by 28% and the prices nosedived. The crisis also resulted in a large quantity of laidoff workers. In November 1857, more than 10,000 out of 45,000 workers in Manchester of the UK lost their jobs, and 18,000 partially unemployed. Thanks to its advanced technology and equipment and strong competitiveness, the UK was able to take advantage of the crisis to dump abroad, and became the first country to recover from the crisis. By the second half of 1858, British export had witnessed an obvious increase. Subsequently, the other countries in the world broke away from the economic crisis one after another.

Roadmap 2050

10,706 banks in the USA went into bankruptcy, accounting for 42.3% of the total number in this country. The crisis caused industrial production to shrink and the unemployment to increase dramatically. From 1929 to 1939, the industrial output was reduced by 55.6% in America, 52.2% in Germany, 36.1% in France and 32.0% in the UK, with the lowest point dropping to the levels of 1905, 1896, 1911 and 1897 respectively. During the crisis, the output of production material witnessed an especially drastic drop. At the end of 1932, the output of production material in major industrial countries declined by 43%, that of consumption material by 14.3%. The crisis gave rise to a drastic drop in the profits of industrial companies and even bankruptcy. During the period, over 140,000 enterprises went into bankruptcy in the USA, 60,000 in Germany, 57,000 in France, and 32,000 in the UK. The number of the unemployed rapidly grew, with the total number increased from the prior-crisis figure of 1,500,000 to 13,200,000 in America, to 7,000,000 in Germany, around 3,000,000 in Britain and France respectively. International trade plunged severely. The total international trade value of the world’s major industrial countries in 1933 shrunk by 2/3 compared to that of 1929. The crisis caused a severe overproduction of agricultural products, a drastic decline in prices and a serious reduction in agricultural incomes. According to League of Nations, the agricultural incomes in these countries dropped by: 56.8% in the USA, 54.0% in Canada, 34.0% in Germany, 40.6% in Argentina, 44.0% in Hungary and 68% in Denmark.

·6·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The modernization process is, in essence, the history of S&T progress and innovation. Every change in modern society correlates closely with the transformative breakthroughs in science and technology. A S&T revolution is always driven by the tremendous demands from modernization, and is the consequence of innovation and breakthroughs in knowledge and technology.

1.1 Modernization Calls for a New S&T Revolution Modernization originated from the West Europe some 250 years ago and then spread unceasingly around the world. The Renaissance, Enlightenment Movement, and Science Revolution catalyzed European industrial revolution, political revolution and religious reform, and, accordingly, initiated the process of industrialization and modernization. In the history of modernization, two important science revolutions gave rise to the revolution in epistemology, led to the reforms in man’s outlook on world, values and development, and provided knowledge backing for technology revolution. The first science revolution started in the fields of astrology, physics, and physiology during the 16th and 17th century. N. Copernicus’ De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium (the Celestial Movement) smashed man’s infinitive trust on the capacity of sense organ, Galileo Galilei’s creative research changed the empirical science into the experimental science, and Isaac Newton’s Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica (The Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy) shed light on the laws governing the motions of terrestrial bodies and celestial bodies, and their identities, all of which freed natural sciences from theology and thus established a new world outlook on mechanics completely different from the old. The Calculus set up by Isaac Newton and Leibniz provided scientific backing for mechanics and other sciences, and thus changed man’s mode of thinking. On the Origin of Species by Charles Robert Darwin fully described the laws governing the origin and evolution of species, which broadened man’s knowledge on competition and development, and even

Roadmap 2050

1

The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

Roadmap 2050

became important ideological base for future social changes. And the classic electromagnetism theory set the scientific base for electric revolution. The basic structure of modern science system was jointly set up, in the early 20th century, by the revolution in physics represented by quantum mechanics and theory of relativity, and the major science events such as Big Bang Theory, the Double-helical Structure of DNA, Plate Tectonics Theory and computing science. This revolution in modern science cast light on the basic laws governing the micro material world, described the interrelations among time, space, matter and energy, advanced a new outlook on time and space, and demonstrated the great power of science in productivity development, which helped shape man’s modern life and had a far-reaching impact on its future life. Taking this opportunity, developed countries took the lead in stepping into the knowledge-based economy. Hence began a new round of modernization drive in human history. In the modernization process, the technology revolutions and industrial revolutions reinforced each other, resulting in a leap-frog advance in productivity and abundance of material wealth and causing extensive changes in economy, society and military force, thus becoming the engine to man’s modernization drive. The discovery of steam engine in Europe and its extensive application in the mid-18th century marked the first technology revolution, which broke the limit of natural motive power and reached to large-scale production and mechanization. The first industrial revolution broke out in the UK with the advancement of technology revolution. The machine-equipped industry gradually developed into five industrial systems from textile to excavating, metallurgical, machine manufacturing and transporting industries, making the UK into the first industrial power in the world. The European continent and the USA followed up to launch their industrialization drive in the first half of the 19th century, with France, Germany and the USA being the fastest in development and largest in scale. The first industrial revolution completely smashed the old relations of production and changed the world structure. Hence began the era of industrial civilization of mankind. The advent of electric power technology marked the second technology revolution, in the 1830s, by advancing human society from steam to electric age. Internal combustion engine and motor engine gradually replaced the steam engine. Heavy industries such as electric power, oil and chemical industry rose very rapidly. The advancement of productivity caused the formation of industry structure featured by huge consumption of natural resources and fossil fuels as well. Germany and the USA emerged as new industry powers and gradually broke the monopoly of the UK. These big powers competed in the world market to pursue or even plunder natural resources, causing frequent warfare around the world. The advent of electronic technology, space and aeronautic technology, nuclear technology, information and the Internet technology, since the ·8·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

·9·

Roadmap 2050

1940s, has marked the third technology revolution, bringing mankind into the electronic age from the electric age. The rapidly developing electronic industry gave rise to many emerging industries, promoted the upgrading of conventional industry and the development of military and related industries. The industrial productivity increased tremendously, with the 20 years’ world gross industrial output value from 1953 to 1973 almost totaling that of the previous years. The major capitalized countries such as the USA, Germany, France and the UK stepped into a period of matured industrialization. Since the 1970s, the extensive use of information technology and digital networking has given impetus to the development of modern service industry, greatly changed man’s way of life and mode of production as well, speeded up the globalization, and advanced human society into information age. The rapid development of biotechnology has brought out the progress in medicine, health and agriculture industry. Looking into the future of modernization, man’s strong desire for modern life will rise in sharp conflict with the affordability of natural resources and ecoenvironment as well, which will be, to a larger extend, determine the direction, scale and progress of human modernization. In the next 50 years, more than 2–3 billion people, including Chinese and Indian, will strive for modernization, and a majority of developing countries will dedicate themselves to industrialization. Over 200 years’ industrialization in human history has brought less than 1 billion people into modernization, but with the severe exhaustion of natural resources and fossil fuels, and at the great sacrifice of natural environment. We can no longer boost our economy with the conventional mode of plundering non-renewable natural resources and centering the world resources only on a few big powers. Instead, we are in urgent need to develop new resources, sort out new development mode and way-outs, and set up new mode of production and lifestyle. This need strongly calls for transformative breakthroughs in science and technology, and the benefits of science and technology for a majority of people. Human civilization requires a new round of S&T revolution and industrial revolution as well. Science and technology is by nature revolutionary, so far as its laws of development is concerned. Both science revolution and technology revolution take place unexpectedly as a consequence of knowledge explosion, and goes through cycles in revolution. A science revolution comes out of the fundamental conflicts between the existing theories and scientific observation and experiments and, thus, causes a leap in scientific thinking. It appears in the form of a new system of scientific theories. Since the second half of the 20th century, the knowledge explosion has just helped to optimize the existing science theories, but not given rise to any breakthroughs or discoveries which can be placed on a par with the theory of relativity and the like in the first half of the 20th century. “The Silence of Science” has remained for over 60 years and, in the meantime, the inner contradiction within the knowledge system of science and technology comes into being.

Roadmap 2050

Technology revolution causes a leap in man’s way of living and development. It comes out of the practical experience of mankind and the creative application of scientific theories, leads to innovation in major equipments and methods, and results in substantial enhancement of man’s capability and efficiency. Technology revolution goes through in cycles and is likely to occur every one century. It has been 80 years since the third technology revolution broke out in the 1930s and the 1940s, during which major technology innovation occurred one after another, and the time span for the transfer of key technology discoveries into industrial production shortens. Since the 1970s, the cycle of technology transfer became even shorter. And in the field of information technology, technology transfer occurs once every a few months. In conclusion, the world is at the eve of a transformative S&T revolution, which may likely to happen in the first half of the 21st century. The big change in world economic structure caused by the current global financial crisis will speed up the advent of another round of S&T revolution.

The First Science Revolution The first science revolution took place in the period from the middle of the 16th century to the end of the 17th century. Before that, Aristotelian tradition had, for long time, been a basis of knowledge shared by Western scholars. The natural philosophy in his Physics, Problemata Mechanica, and De Caelo as well as the subsequent geocentric theory, developed by Claudius Ptolemy, dominated the theoretical illumination about mechanics and cosmology. Till the 16 th and 17th centuries, Aristotelian tradition was seriously challenged with practical and theoretical research. In 1543, after a few years’ hesitation, N. Copernicus finally published, right before his death, the De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium (the Celestial Movement) and his new model of revolutions of planets, which overturned Ptolemy’s geocentric theory. In the same year, Andreas Vesalius published a famous book on anatomy, De Humani Corporis Fabrica (the Structure of the Human Body), to correct the wrong explanation of the circulation of blood given by Galen, a doctor in ancient Rome. The mechanical researches done by Galileo Galilei and Isaac Newton were masterstrokes in the first science revolution. The problems in the movement of projectile and single pendulum, the stability of buildings as well as the movement of planets in practice were sharply contradictory to the explanations in Aristotelian tradition and became challenging research objects. Galileo Galilei, an Italian, developed experimental research methods and combined experimental methods with mathematical ones. He creatively discovered movement laws of single pendulum, a falling body and projectile. In 1609, he made astronomic observation with a telescope for the first time. Based on the accurate record of observation made by Tycho Brahe, Johannes Kepler brought forward a new law of movement of planets. It was a sheer coincidence that Isaac Newton was born in the same year of 1642 when Galileo died. Newton summarized the law of motion and the law

· 10 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 11 ·

Roadmap 2050

of gravity, and integrated the theories of classical mechanics in The Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy published in 1687, which set up a reliable basic structure for modern science. The first science revolution resulted in transformative development of main disciplines in the period from the 17th to the 19th centuries, and established an integrative system of modern science. - In the 17th century, Descartes founded analytic geometry, while Newton and Leibniz established calculus. Henceforth, analysis became the mainstream of mathematics, in which many branches were established, but it was not yet precise in theory. Till the 19th century, mathematical analysis gradually became a precise logical system. For examples: A. L. Cauchy, a French mathematician, rigorously defined the continuum of a function, differential coefficient and integral with limit; K. Weierstrass, a German mathematician, set up a strict basis for mathematical analysis; G. F. B. Riemann, a German mathematician, contributed quite a lot to mathematics with his research in the fields of algebraic function theory, differential geometry, analytic number theory and potential theory; G. Cantor, a German mathematician, established set theory for mathematical analysis; E. Galois and others set up group theory; Leman further developed non-Euclidean geometry while D. Hilbert, a German mathematician, improved methods of axiom. - While classical mechanics kept being improved, there were important breakthroughs in the fields of optics, thermodynamics and electromagnetic in physics. Robert Hooke and Christiaan Huygens respectively proposed a wave theory of light, which was proved with experiment done by Jean Foucault, a French physicist. Thomas Young, an English polymath, discovered interference law of light, which was proved with mathematics by Augustin-Jean Fresnel, a French engineer. By studying efficiency of steam engine, Nicolas Léonard Sadi Carnot, a French physicist, proposed principles of heat engine. By inventing voltaic pile and battery, Alessandro Volta approached to the world of electricity with a big step. Electrical current magnetic effect discovered by Hans Christian Oersted, the Ampere law discovered by Andre Marie Ampere, and the law of electromagnetic induction discovered by Michael Faraday, an English chemist and physicist, formed the basis of the invention of electrical machinery. James Clerk Maxwell, a Scottish theoretical physicist and mathematician, summarized all electromagnetic phenomena with a group of mathematical equations. His predictions of the existence of electromagnetic wave and that electromagnetic wave spread with velocity of light were proved with experiment by Heinrich Rudolf Hertz, a German physicist. Thus, electricity, magnetism and optics were connected together. More than ten European scientists, including Julius Robert Mayer, respectively discovered principle of conversation of energy, which revealed integrity of various sorts of movement among heat, mechanics, electricity and chemistry and made physics unparalleled integrality. - Chemistry broke away from alchemy in the 18th century and stepped into an age of real scientific research, resulting in a revolution. Antoine-Laurent de Lavoisier found, through experiments, that burning was, in fact, oxidation, so that new burning theory replaced phlogiston theory. In 1789 when French Revolution took place, Lavoisier published his book, Traité Élémentaire de Chimie (Elementary Treatise on Chemistry), in which the table of the 33 elements were divided into four groups. In

Roadmap 2050

1803, Dalton, an English chemist, meteorologist and physicist, proposed chemical atomism, in which he clarified the conceptions of element, elementary substance and compound with atom. This gave a theoretical explanation to experiential chemical laws. In 1811, A. Avogadro, an Italian physician, brought about concept of molecule which was finally accepted by chemists after half a century disputes. The theories of atom and molecule established theoretical basis for chemistry and blazed a way for construction theory of organic compound, and the development of organic analysis and organic synthesis. Dmitri Ivanovich Mendeleyev, a Russian chemist, and J. L. Meyer, a German chemist, respectively brought forward the periodic table of the elements in 1869, which guided the study of elements, and searching for new elements and new materials as well. - The microscope invented in the 17th century was a good tool to understand the microworld. Marcello Malpighi, Robert Hooke and Antonie van Leeuwenhoek made use of microscope to observe cells, and animalcules. Based on the work of Carl von Linné, a Swedish botanist, physician and zoologist, biological taxonomy was established in the 18th century. Biology developed into an integral discipline in the 19th century, in which the most important achievement was evolutionism. J. B. de Lamarck, a French botanist and invertebrate zoologist, was the first person who put forth the theory of biological evolution. After half a century, Charles Robert Darwin, a British scientist, clarified biological evolutionism systematically in The Origin of Species published in 1859. Based on experimental research of biology, A. Weismann, a German zoologist, developed Darwin’s theory. In the 19th century, another important achievement was cytology. With the development of the technology of microscope and experimental science, scientists made some new achievements by observing cells, based on which M. J. Schleiden, a German physiologist and histologist, and T. Schwann, a German physiologist, put forth the theory of cells in the period from 1838 to 1839. The first science revolution formed new world outlook and methodology. Science became an independent social organizational system. Copernicus and Galileo established new scientific theories, which were contradictory to religious credenda which predominated during that period. Christianity, the then paramount authority, was challenged so that the church was very sensitive to any challenges to Aristotle’s tradition. In 1600, Giordano Bruno was burned to death because he championed Copernicus’ theory. In 1633, prestigious Galileo was tried by the church and was sentenced to imprisonment for life. However, science couldn’t stop developing in spite of the church’s opposition. Darwin’s evolutionism beat Genesis and was accepted by a majority of people. It also exerted a far-reaching influence on biology, physiology, social science and religion. During the first science revolution, induction based on experiment that Francis Bacon emphasized and deduction generalized by Rene Descartes formed methodology in science which became popular to this day. The establishment of Florence Science Society in Italy, the Royal Society in Britain, the Royal Academy of Sciences in France, and Berlin Academy of Sciences in Germany symbolized the organizational system of modern science, which evolved into two kinds of national research organizations in science: the British and American tradition, and the European continental tradition. The former was represented by the Royal Society in Britain and the American Academy of Sciences, while the latter was represented

· 12 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The Second Science Revolution The second science revolution was a fundamental transformation in natural science theory at the beginning of the 20th century, mainly represented by the theory of relativity and the quantum theory. In the end of the 19th century, facing powerful classical physics, people generally thought that only improvement and complement could be made in physics in the future. However, crisis laid dormant in physics during the period. In 1900, Lord Kelvin of Largs, a British scientist, mentioned that there were two dark clouds above the mansion of physics: one was “ultraviolet disaster” in black-body radiation; another was relative to the failure of the aether-drift experiment. The problem of black-body radiation was a hot topic at the end of the 19th century. In 1896, Wilhelm Wien, a German physicist, deduced hot body energy distribution law. However, the experimental result was quite different from the part of low frequency. In 1900, John W. Rayleigh, a Britain physicist, corrected Wien’s hot body energy distribution law, and made the part of low frequency correspond with experimental result. However, there was still warp between high frequency and the result of experiment as the part of high frequency was close to the violet of spectrum. This nonidentity was called “ultraviolet disaster”. In December of that year, Max Planck put forth the concept of “quantum” in his lecture delivered in Germany physics society, which was the first thunder in science revolution in the 20th century, and conduced to the quantum theory, the first footstone in modern physics. Its revolutionary character was that it introduced discontinuity of energy into physics, which almost penetrated into all microcosmic fields. In 1905, Einstein brought forward the concept of “photons” and explained the problems of photoemission perfectly. In 1911, Niels Bohr applied quantum theory to theory of atomic model, whose quantum orbit of its hydrogen atom was completely consistent with experimental result. During the period from 1923 to 1924, Louis de Broglie put forward matter wave hypothesis and extended to all material particles. In 1925, with the help of Max Born and P. Jordon, Werner Heisenberg, a German theoretical physicist, established matrix mechanics, which was improved soon by Paul Adrie Maurice Dirac, a Britain theoretical physicist. In 1926, based on the work accomplished by Louis de Broglie, Erwin Schrödinger, an Austrian physicist, established wave mechanics. Before long, he proved that matrix mechanics and wave mechanics were equivalent in mathematics. Quantum mechanics exerted a profound influence on human being’s view of nature and greatly promoted the development of atomic physics, solid-state physics and nucleus physics. It was a powerful tool to study the atom, molecule, solid as well as the structure and movement of atomic nucleus, and formed theoretical basis for semiconductor technology and atomic energy technology.

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 13 ·

Roadmap 2050

by the French Academy of Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, the Kaiser Wilhelm Society in Germany (later named as The Max Planck Society), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, French National Center for Scientific Research, etc.

Roadmap 2050

Aether-drift experiment was designed by two American scientists, Albert Michelson and Edward Morley, to prove the existence of aether. Scientists in the 19th century thought that it was luminiferous and full of universe. Results of the highly precise experiment conducted by the two American scientists showed that the velocity of aether was zero, or that velocity of light was a constant. This was completely contradictory to relativity principle in classical physics. In 1905, A. Einstein published On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies and put forward Special Relativity. With Special Relativity, many amazing results could be obtained. Although they were so absurd, experiments over a hundred years proved that it was correct. Special Relativity thoroughly revealed integrity among movement, time and space. With ten years research onward, Einstein completed General Relativity in 1915, which revealed integrity among four-dimension time and space and substance. The establishment of Relativity formed the other footstone of modern science and let us has new knowledge of the nature of time, space and the universe. In his late years, Einstein concentrated on the study of unified field. Although his efforts were made in vain, he encouraged himself with the words of Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, a Germany writer: “It is not the truth that a man possesses, or believes that he possesses, but the earnest effort which he puts forward to reach the truth, which constitutes the worth of a man.” In 1929, Edwin P. Hubble, an American astronomer, put forth his famous Hubble’s Law: The velocity of galaxy moved from solar system and the distance between them was direct ratio. Based on General Relativity and Hubble’s Law, modern cosmography rose vigorously, in which the most famous was Big Bang theory put forth by George Gamow in the 1940s. In 1964, Arno Penzias and Robert Woodrow Wilson, American radio astronomers, discovered the cosmic microwave background radiation, which supplied important foundation to Big Bang theory. In the field of micro-sized particles, James Chadwick, a British physician, discovered neutron in 1932, which didn’t carry electricity but it could be an ideal “bomb” to bombard atomic nucleus. In the same year, P. Anderson, an American physicist, discovered positrons which had been predicted by Paul Dirac. In the 1940s, mesotron was found which was previously predicted by Hideki Yukawa. In the 1950s, neutrino was found predicted by Wolfgang E. Pauli. In the research of weak interaction between elementary particles, Tsung-Dao Lee and Chen-Ning Yang discovered violations of the principle of parity conservation (the quality of space reflection symmetry of subatomic particle interactions) in 1956, which was proved in Chien-Shiung Wu’s experiment soon after. In 1964, Murray Geli-Mann brought forward quark model of hadronic structure. In 1968, Steven Weinberg and Abdus Salam respectively developed the theory of the weak force and electromagnetic interaction, and unified the weak force and electromagnetic interaction. The 20th century witnessed a rapid development in biology. In 1900, three scientists from different countries coincided in discovering Mendel’s work which had been neglected for 35 years and hence established a new discipline, genetics. Afterward, gene in Mendelian genetic theory found its application in the study of American Morgan School. The discovery of the Double-helical Structure of DNA was the most progressive in biology in the 20th century. The discovery was closely relevant to the development of genetics, cytology and chemistry. There were three scientific research teams engaged in the research of crystal structure of DNA.

· 14 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The First Technology Revolution The first technology revolution refers to the fundamental technological innovation which started in the UK in the middle of the 18th century and was interdependent with industrial revolution, mainly represented by the invention and

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 15 ·

Roadmap 2050

However, it was James D. Watson, an American biologist, and Francis Crick, a British physicist, that put forth the Double-helical Structure of DNA at first in 1953. This symbolized the naissance of molecular biology. Geocentric theory was a dominant view in geology at the end of the 19th century. In 1912, Alfred Lothar Wegener, a German rocksy, proposed the theory of continental drift in 1912 and clarified it systematically in 1915. He thought that the continents and oceans were formed due to their drifting apart from a giant continent in Paleozoic, and supported his theory with evidences. However, there was no reliable explanation of drifting motivity in the theory of continental drift. In the 1960s, Seafloor Spreading Theory further explained the theory of continental drift. Afterward, Plate Tectonics Theory proposed by Xavier Le Pichon, a French geophysicist, supplied a rational explanation to how the continents drifted. The development from Continental Drift Theory to Plate Tectonics Theory was a significant revolution in geological theories. Mathematical research in the 20 th century reflected in the following three aspects: pure mathematics tended to abstraction and unification; applied mathematics developed unprecedentedly; and mathematics was combined with computer science closely. Based on the development of Group Theory in the 19th century, abstract algebra greatly developed in the first half of the 20th century. French Bourbaki school put forth general view of algebraic structures. Modern Algebra written in 1931 by Bartel Leendert van der Waerden, a Netherlander mathematician, was the first sample of such a mathematical structure. Boundaries between each branches of mathematics got to blur in the second half of the 20th century. Meanwhile, interaction between mathematics and other fields was gradually strengthened. Therefore, there emerged cross-disciplines, such as mathematical physics, biological mathematics and mathematical economics. Alan Turing’s Computability Theory, Boolean Switching Algebra by Claude Elwood Shannon and Architecture for a Computer System by John Von Neumann made the electronic computer come into reality, and established scientific basis for human beings to step into the information era. The science revolution in the 20th century revealed the natures and laws of micro-sized particles, macro universe and living creatures, caused fundamental changes in world outlook and scientific activities, and resulted in a leap in man’s understanding of nature. Moreover, scientific research model was changing. Scientists engaged, more and more, into teamwork, and international cooperation was strengthened. “Mega Science” model was becoming conspicuous. People could feel strongly the revolutionary power of science in human civilization.

Roadmap 2050

application of the steam engine as well as machinery work instead of manual labor. This technology revolution mainly reflected in the following five aspects: Firstly, machines were invented and applied in textile industry. In 1733, J. Kay invented a flying shuttle which doubled the efficiency of a loom. Thereafter, lots of machines and tools were invented and applied in spinning and weaving. In 1764, J. Hargreaves invented Spinning Jenny; in 1768, S. D. Arkwright made a water frame; in 1779, S. Crompton invented his Spinning Mule; and in 1785, E. Cartwright invented a power loom, which increased efficiency in tens of times. With mechanization and technological innovation in textile industry, it became an urgent and technologic need to seek for mechanical power, which could replace natural power, such as animal power, wind power and water power. Secondly, steam technology was invented and improved. Steam engine was made to drain in mine at first. Till the 17th century, coal became important fuel in Britain and drainage was a main factor to restrict output of coal. In 1698, T. Savery invented a steam driven water pump, Miner’s Friend, which was further improved by T. Newcomen, and initially solved the problem of drainage in coal mining. In 1769, J. Watt made a great improvement in Newcomen’s steam engine and overcame such shortages as big size, high consumption of coal and low thermal efficiency; and in 1781, Watt invented revolving steam engine. Thereafter, the steam engine became a “universal power machine” rather than a drainage device. It finally turned fuel into power, broke through restriction of natural power and supplied large amounts of power to textile machines. Thirdly, manufacturing was formed to produce various kinds of machines. At the end of the 18th century, with the establishment of various factories, it was urgent to produce a large number of machine tools for steam engines and textile machines. In 1797, H. Maudslay invented a key device in manufacture, an accurate screw cutting lathes, which directly resulted in large machine processing factories. Hence, a group of outstanding designers of machine tools and manufacturers, such as J. Whitworth, and a series of inventions promoted the development and improvement of modern machine tools. Various kinds of machines and tools were gradually produced, which established the foundation of mechanization in modern industry. Fourthly, smelting technology of iron and steel developed. The rising of machine manufacturing required more and more iron and steel, which gave rise to the quick development of smelting technology. In 1709, Abraham Darby smelted iron with coke instead of charcoal. Henceforth, smelting of iron got rid of restriction of forest resources. In 1760, John Roebuck improved technology of blast in smelting of iron. During the period from 1783 to 1784, H. Cort invented puddling and shingling processes, with which wrought iron and steel were made. These inventions increased iron output dramatically. There was a breakthrough in smelting of steel, too. In 1740, B. Huntsman used a crucible to make cast steel parts for the first time. Fifthly, steamship and train were invented. In 1807, Robert Fulton, an American engineer and inventor, invented a ship driven by a steam engine, which resulted in changes in modern transportation by water. The invention of a train was resulted from the steam engine fixed in a vehicle on land. In 1825, G. Stephenson built the first practical rail line, which began an era of railway transportation.

· 16 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The Second Technology Revolution The second technology revolution was a tremendous transformation in the technologies of electricity and electrical apparatus, internal-combustion engines, steel-making, petroleum and new vehicles, which took place in the 1930s and was mainly represented by the technology of electric power and the invention of internalcombustion. Firstly, electric power and electrical apparatus developed. Based on the achievements of electromagnetic such as the law of electromagnetic induction, scientists and engineers had invented various kinds of electrical machinery. In 1832, H. Pixii invented the first permanent-magnet direct current dynamo. In 1866, W. Siemens invented a self-excited generator, which made it technologically possible to build electrical machinery with big capacity. In 1870, Z. T. Gramme made the first practical direct current dynamo which could really generate continuous current. In 1873, Siemens Company invented drum armature, which made electrical machinery more efficient. In 1879, T. Edison invented vacuum carbon filament lamp, and he made 110-volt self-excited direct current generator in 1880. In 1882, Edison Electric Light Company built the first direct current power plant in New York, in which there were six dynamos. Each dynamo could light 1500 15-Watt bulbs, which symbolized the appearance of the first electrical lighting system for civil use. In order to solve contradictory problems between high voltage in long distance transmission of direct current and low voltage power for civil use, alternating current electrical machinery and transformer were invented one after another. In 1886, N. Tesla made a two-phase electromotor. In 1889, M. von Dolivo-Dobrovolsky, a Russian engineer, invented three-phase squirrel-cage asynchronous motor and three-phase convertor one after another and put forth three-phase system. In 1891, three-phase alternator, three-phase asynchronism motor and transformer were put into service. This symbolized a new stage of the development of electrical machinery. With innovation in the way to supply power, electrical technology quickly spread. Therefore, a series of brand-new technological fields formed, such as, electro analysis, electroplating, galvanothermy, electro smelting, electroacoustics, and electrical lamp-house. This resulted in a technological system with technology of electric power as its core. With the development of electrical technology, the technologies of telegraph, telephone, radio and television came out one by one. In 1836, S. F. B. Morse, an American inventor, made the earliest wire telegraph in the world. In 1876, A. G.

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 17 ·

Roadmap 2050

From the end of the 18 th century to the beginning of the 19 th century, technology of steam engine interacted with the technologies in the fields of coal, mining and smelting, machine manufacture, textile and transportation and formed a brand-new technological system. The wide application of these technologies was the most decisive factor of Industrial Revolution. This technology revolution caused a leap forward in productivity and established a capitalistic mode of production. Hence, the Western Europe stepped into an industrial society.

Roadmap 2050

Bell, an American inventor, invented telephone. In 1896, M. G. Marconi, an Italian, invented radio. Five years later, Marconi succeeded in sending aerogram across the Atlantic Ocean. In 1904, J. A. Fleming, an English electrical engineer and physicist, invented electronic vacuum diode while, in 1907, an American inventor, L. de Forest, invented electronic vacuum dynatron which solved the problem of electronic signal amplification. In 1916, an American, Frank Conrad, built a radio station. Till 1930, there was a global radiobroadcast system. Such parts as photoelectrical kinescope, magnetron, klystron and travelling-wave tube were invented one after another, which laid the foundation of television, radar and microwave corresponding. Secondly, internal-combustion engine was invented and applied. In 1862, Alphonse Beau de Rochas, a French engineer, put forward the theory of operating cycle to make an internal-combustion engine with high efficiency, which laid a theoretical foundation for the development of internal-combustion engine. In 1876, Nicolans August Otto, a German inventor, made a four-separate-stroke gas engine, which was as significant as the steam engine improved by Watt. In 1883, Gottlieb Daimler, a German engineer, made the first gasoline engine in the world. In 1898, Rudolf Diesel, a German inventor and engineer, invented a diesel engine. Internalcombustion engine directly made it possible for Daimler to invent a practical car and for the Wright brothers to invent the first controlled powered plane. At the beginning of the 20th century, American Ford Motor Company developed the assembly-line manufacturing technology. Henceforth, cars were used as vehicles for transportation and travel. Internal-combustion engine replaced steam engine, and became dominant in the fields of automobiles, tractors, planes, ships, engineering machines and war vehicles. With the great development of internal-combustion engine and its application, gasoline and natural gas gradually became major energy sources in the world. Thirdly, technology of material developed. Machinery manufacturing and railway stimulated the breakthrough of iron and steel technology. In 1856, Henry Bessemer, an English engineer and inventor, invented the steel-making converter. Manufacture of steel with this process was fast and low in energy consumption. Therefore, it spread quickly. During the period from 1856 to 1864, Carl Wilhelm Siemens, a German engineer, and P. Martin, a French engineer, invented a process called “open hearth steelmaking” which was very economical. In the second half of the 19th century, output of steel increased rapidly. The global output of crude steel increased from 510,000 tons in 1870 to 27.83 million tons in 1900. In 1882, S. R. Hadfield, a British metallurgist, developed manganese steel, marking a milestone of the development of alloy steel. In 1886, C. M. Hall, an American inventor and engineer, invented an electrolytic process for producing aluminum. At the end of the 19th century, ferroconcrete played an important role, which marked an epoch in architecture. Thereafter, breakthroughs were made in macromolecule. In 1907, Leo Backland, an American chemist, synthesized a kind of plastic, Bakelite. In 1908, H. Staudinger, a German chemist, invented methyl rubber, which was put into industrial production in 1912. The second technology revolution produced a large number of new industries, such as electric power and electrical apparatuses, automobiles, and petroleum chemical industries. This technology revolution improved the level and scale of the industries of machinery and smelting, and pushed a mechanical industrial society

· 18 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The Third Technology Revolution The third technology revolution started in the 1930s and 1940s. After the World War II, new technological innovations took place one after another and developed in a diversified and integral way. The main symbol of the third technology revolution was the development of electronic technology, computer and network information technology. Meanwhile, there were significant breakthroughs in the fields of nuclear energy, space technology, new materials and bio-technology. The invention of electronic technology and computer started the third technology revolution. Owing to the need of the World War II, the USA successfully developed the first electronic computer in the world, ENIAC. Computers experienced four phases of development: the first generation vacuum tube computer (1946–1959), the second generation transistor computer (1959–1964), the third generation integrated circuit computer (from 1964 to the early 1970s), the forth generation large-scale integration and ultra-large scale integration computers (after the early 1970s). In the 1980s, people began to probe computers of artificial intelligence, biology, photonic integrated circuit and quanta. The development of computer technology attributed to the inventions of transistor and integrated circuit technology. In 1948, J. Bardeen, an American physicist and electrical engineer, invented transistor, whose special working principle made it possible for electric circuit to integrate and for information to digitize. In 1950 and 1956, transistor televisions and transistor computers came into being one after another. In 1958 and 1959, American engineers, Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce, independently invented integrated circuit. Thereafter, integrate circuits developed from small scale, medium scale, large-scale to ultra-large scale. Integration level increased in one time every 18 months. Meanwhile, its cost decreased in a half, which was close to physical limit of semiconductor. The advent of the Internet marked another important leap in information technology. Around 1969, ARPANET was built in four universities in the USA, which was the beginning of computer internet. In the early 1980s, with the popularization of personal computer, mutual communication among computers was in great need. This promoted the development of the Internet. In 1993, the USA initiated Information Superhighway Plan, which drew the attention of many countries. It also tremendously changed people’s ways of working, learning, shopping and living. Nowadays, the Internet era is transferring into the “Post-IP” era. Right before the World War II, scientists discovered neutron and the fission chain reaction through experiments, and calculated that uranium fission could produce enormous energy. Governments in Germany, Britain, the USA and the former

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 19 ·

Roadmap 2050

into an electric era, in which employment structure and living style had tremendous changes. The Western European countries and the USA not only became major industrial powers but also expanded their influences to Asia and Latin America. Industrial civilization became a mainstream of development in the world.

Roadmap 2050

Soviet Union successively organized researchers to study uranium fission and its military application. Franklin Roosevelt, the then American president, authorized the Manhattan Engineering District, an atomic bomb building plan, in 1941. In 1942, Enrico Fermi, an Italian physicist, developed the first reactor in the USA. In 1945, the USA developed three A-bombs. The development of nuke, such as A-bombs and H-bombs, exerted a profound influence on the political pattern of the world after the World War II. The nuclear reactor was applied to build nuclear power plant, introducing a new kind of energy source to human beings. The technology of isotope and radiation was widely applied in the fields of industry, agriculture, medicine, scientific research, resources, the environment and public safety. After aviation stepped into a jet age, space technology grew up. In 1957, Soviet Union succeeded in launching the first man-made satellite, which announced the coming of the space age. In 1961, it also succeeded in manned spacecraft flight, which was the first time for human being to enter into outer space. In 1969, the USA realized Apollo Project, marking a big leap forward in space exploration. In 1971, Soviet Union transported a space station into outer space for the first time. In 1981, the successful flight-test of an American space shuttle marked the beginning of space navigation transport. After navigating for over 30 years, the Voyager 2, launched by the USA in 1977, finally arrived at the borderline of solar system in 2008. In 1993, the USA finally built up Global Position System (GPS) after 20 years’ efforts and at the cost of 20 billion US dollars. Space technology was applied broadly to civil use, such as communications, navigation and remote sensing. It offered tools for human beings to make use of outer space. From the end of the 1920s, nickel steel, aluminum alloys, titanium alloys were produced in large quantities. Since the 1930s, large molecule synthetic polymer, such as rubber, plastic and chemical fiber, had developed rapidly. Abionon-metal materials, such as a new type of porcelain, semiconductor materials, glass and cement, had kept developing dramatically. Since the 1950s, researches on rare metal smelting and compound materials have evolved greatly. Some significant events were as follows: the DuPont Company of the USA invented Nylon-66 in 1935, and in the same year, the USA and Germany began to produce chloroethylene plastics. Macromolecule materials kept on replacing natural materials and played a more and more important role. In the 1960s, the world output of synthetic rubber overtook natural rubber for the first time. According to its calculated volume, the world output of plastics was almost equal to that of lumber and cement in the 1970s, and even surpassed that of steels in the early 1980s. Breakthrough in new material realized a big leap forward from natural materials, artificial materials to the creation of new materials, which laid a material base for the third technology revolution. In this round of technology revolution, except for the technologies mentioned above, there were some breakthroughs made in advanced manufacturing technology, bio-technology and ocean engineering. The third technology revolution enormously improved technological level in various industrial fields. The industrial structure in the world changed dramatically. New industries, represented by the tertiary industry, developed rapidly. More significantly, machinery gradually replaced some mental labor, which pushed society forward into a new era of globalization, knowledge, information and the Internet. Some developed countries stepped into

· 20 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

World Modernization Process Modernization is a profound change of human civilization since the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, and a complex process of the formation, development, transformation and international interaction of modern civilizations. From the 18 th century to the end of the 21 st century, the process of world modernization can be divided into two major periods. The first modernization, known as the classical modernization, refers to the transformation from agricultural society to an industrial one, and an agricultural economy to an industrial one, featured by industrialization, urbanization, marketization and democratization. The second modernization, known as the new modernization, refers to the transformation from an industrial society to a knowledge-based one, and an industrial economy to a knowledge-based one, featured by knowledge-intensiveness, informatization, globalization and ecologization. In 2005, there were about 24 countries finalized the first modernization and entered into the second modernization, with about 930 million people in total (see the following table). The level of modernization of 24 countries in 2005 Countries USA

Population (million)

First Second modernization index modernization index

296

100

109

Sweden

9

100

105

Denmark

5

100

102

128

100

102

Norway

5

100

101

Finland

5

100

101

20

100

98

7

100

95

The Netherlands

16

100

93

Germany

82

100

93

Belgium

10

100

92

Korea, Rep.

48

100

92

France

61

100

92

Canada

32

100

91

UK

60

100

91

4

100

91

Japan

Australia Switzerland

New Zealand

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 21 ·

Roadmap 2050

post-industrial era while others developed into emerging industrial countries through technology innovation. Some developing countries, represented by China and India, are advancing rapidly in the modernization process. The structure of the world is transforming profoundly. A new civilization is forming, which is different from the industrial civilization.

Roadmap 2050

(Continued) Countries

Population (million)

First Second modernization index modernization index

Austria

8

100

89

Singapore

4

100

88

Israel

7

100

84

Ireland

4

100

81

Spain

43

100

78

Italy

59

100

78

Portugal

11

100

68

Hungary

10

100

65

Source: Research Group for China Modernization Strategies. 2009. China Modernization Report 2009: Cultural Modernization. Beijing: Beijing University Press

1.2 Signs and Possible Directions of S&T Revolution Precise prediction of an impending S&T revolution may be difficult, particularly in a certain area. However, it does not mean that there is no way of tracing its sources, which may be rooted either in the transformation of socioeconomic development mode caused by modernization and its consequent challenges, or in the transformative breakthroughs caused by the inner contradiction of a knowledge-based system. - In terms of energy resources, man’s excessive consumption of fossil fuels and natural resources to develop its economy should be fundamentally transformed into the use of post-fossil fuels and recycling resources. To achieve this, research breakthroughs must be made to address such basic S&T problems as: mass-energy transformation and its essence, the mechanism of solar energy transformation and photosynthesis, high efficiency hydrogen production and storage, distributed renewable energy with stability and high efficiency, the earth system and its evolution, exploited natural resources in deep earth and continental shelves, high-efficient, clean and circular use of non-renewable energy, the recyclable mechanism and efficient utilization of water resources, bioscience and bionic resource study. - In terms of information technology, it is likely that, by around 2020, fundamental obstacles may impede the continuous development of almost all the existing information technologies, such as integrated circuits, magnetic disk storage, high performance computers, Internet technology and the like. To achieve this goal, there is a due call for innovation in information science and transformative breakthroughs in information technology, such as: new network theory, new architectures of high-performance network computing, · 22 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 23 ·

Roadmap 2050

network security and intelligence, human-computer interaction, language/text/ image recognition and transformation, virtual reality, massive data mining and management, new computing technologies based on photoelectron, photon or quantum, self-spinning electron devices, and new generation of chips integrating computing, storage and communication capabilities. - In terms of advanced materials, possible breakthroughs in future materials science and technology may occur in areas such as: the relationship between materials structures and properties; the evolution laws and mechanisms of materials properties under extreme conditions; in-situ real time macro-analysis and characterization of materials performance; precise design and control of materials synthesis and processing; new energy, information and biology materials, nano-materials, and bio-mimetic materials; highly intelligent multi-scale composites; materials with integrated structural and functional properties; life-cycle cost and related controlling technologies; green fabrication process of materials and low-cost high-efficient recycling technologies; continuous processing of materials for near-net-shape forming of components; technologies of material-device integration; and intelligently controlled processing technologies. - In terms of agriculture, it will enter into the ecological, highly efficient and sustainable development age. It will not only keep its traditional role to guarantee food safety and national economy, but also take the new missions to alleviate global energy crisis, providing diverse demand and creating a better ecological environment. To achieve this, research breakthroughs must be made to deal with such basic S&T problems as: processes and mechanisms for evolutionary biodiversity, basic sciences and methods for effective breeding, interaction mechanism and control methods among nutrients, soil, water, light, temperature and plants, scientific theory for sustainable land use, the response of agriculture to global change, and food and nutritional structural evolution. - In terms of population, it is expected that the world population will reach to 9 billion in the middle of the 21st century. In such case, we must control population growth, improve population quality, ensure the safety of food and ecology, conquer important human diseases, and take preemptive measures, then develop a cost-effective and generally applicable health assurance system. Therefore, research breakthroughs must be made in such S&T problems as: the effects of nutrition, environment and behaviors on physiological and psychological health; the mechanisms of genetic heredity, variation and their functions; the new technologies for early prediction, diagnosis and preemptive measures, stem cell and regeneration medicine. - There are some basic science initiatives which are likely to make transformative breakthroughs in the coming decades. In terms of cosmology, the exploration of dark matter, dark energy and antimatter will greatly deepen or even completely change our understanding of the Universe. In terms of the structure of matter, the Control Age is coming into being. Atoms, molecules, even electrons, as constituents of matter, can be manipulated. Thus,

Roadmap 2050

new breakthroughs in high-efficient light/electric/heat energy conversion, photosynthesis, photo-catalysis, energy storage and transfer, information storage, transmission and processing will give rise to new waves of technological and industrial revolution, producing an enormous impact on the human society. In terms of origin and evolution of life, in addition to tools of comparative and evolution genomics for systematic analysis at the molecular level, the emerging “synthetic biology” opens the door of transforming non-living chemical materials to “artificial life”. It promises to explore a new avenue to decipher essential/critical puzzles of life via holistic approach. Potentially, synthetic biology will lead to great breakthroughs in life science and bio-technology. It will have revolutionary effects on the improvement of human health, biotechnologyfostered economy, environment protection, and resource preservation. In the research area of brain and cognition, the essence of consciousness is one of the most challenging issues of the modern era, and its breakthroughs will greatly deepen our understanding of nature and human beings, leading to revolutions in information and intelligence science and technology. Its tremendous impacts on the human society are difficult to predict. Any original scientific innovation in the above areas will open new space in the creation of new scientific paradigms, leading to scientific revolutions. Major technical breakthroughs in any of the above areas will cause new industrial revolution, add new vigor and vitality to world economic growth, give rise to new social transformations, and speed up the modernization and sustainable development process.

Post-Fossil Fuel Era Energy is an important material base for the survival and development of human beings. In the human history, each revolution of energy resources has promoted the great progress of human civilization. The history of energy use has experienced three periods: traditional bio-energy & firewood period, coal period, and oil period. Now energy use will enter into the post-fossil fuel era, which is dominated by new and renewable energy. With the eventual exhaustion of traditional fossil energy and the deteriorating environmental pollution caused by fossil energy use, man begins to diversify its energy mix, doing R&D and utilizing nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy and etc. These new and renewable energies will eventually supplement and replace the fossil energy, and will become the major energy in the post-fossil energy era.

· 24 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Primary Energy Use (EJ/a)

1,400 1,200

Solar power (photovoltaics and solar thermal generation)

1,000 800

Wind Biomass (advanced) Biomass (traditional) Hydroelectricity Nuclear power Gas Coal Oil

600 400 200 0 2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2100

Year

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change. 2004. World in Transition: Towards Sustainable Energy Systems. Earthscan. London and Sterling,VA

Profound Changes in Information Science and Technology Information science and technology is entering the mass adoption stage worldwide. Information technology beneficial to general public will become a main theme in the coming decades. Increasing attention will be paid to the sustainable development of the information service industry. In the next 10–15 years, advances in micro-nano electronics technology are expected to follow three paths. 1) The path to continue Moore’s law, i.e., to successively miniaturize the feature size of CMOS devices, to increase integration, and to advance system-on-chip (SoC) technology. 2) The path to expand Moore’s law, i.e., to realize diverse functions via system-in-package (SiP), not put miniaturization as the only goal. 3) The path of “beyond CMOS”, by exploring new principles, new structures and new materials for nano-devices, such as those based on self-spin-electron, single-electron, quantum, molecule, etc. Information world is changing into a ternary universe comprised of human society, cyberspace, and physical world. The use of information technology will expand from simulating the physical world to embodiment-embedded physical world, from man-machine interaction to planting chips into human bodies. Computing is becoming the link of interaction and convergence among multiple disciplines. The first half of the 21st Century will see the emergence of an information science revolution, featuring high-performance computing and digital simulation as the very fabric of other sciences, to foster new science forms.

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 25 ·

Roadmap 2050

Geothermal Other renewables Solar thermal (heat only)

1,600

Tool Theory Principle Thinking

Formal language & automata Network theory

Coding Turing machine Digital

Algorithm theory

Concurrent theory

Computer family

Quantum information

Electronic

Network effect Moore’s Law Parallel computing

Automation Automatic computing

Energy-saving principles Principles of sustainable IT

Personal computing Computational thinking

Intelligence Networking

1960

Man-cyber-physical ternary universe

New information science for the man-cyber-physical ternary universe

Business computing

1950

Social computing Economic computing Network computing Computational lens Natural computing Intelligence science Biological computing

REST principle

Human-computer Viral market symbiosis End-to-End Argument

Binary

1940

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Universalization of computational thinking

2040

2050

Year Long-term Development Trend of Information Science and Technology

A new revolution in information technology in the second half of the 21st Century

Developing Progress

Roadmap 2050

Developmental, evolutionary, adaptive information systems Energy, value, productivity optimization and guarantee Software services/Services science/ Personalized computing for the masses

Virtualization Validity verification Numerical method Programming language Von Neumann machine Compiler method WWW Stored program Architecture Internet Artificial intelligence Information theory Database theory

Rapid development of information technology in the second half of the 20th Century

Information Technology Breakthroughs in information science in the first half of the 21st Century

Information Science Most of the basic theories of information technology were completed in the 1960s, and there has been no major breakthrough in information science for nearly 40 years

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year Priority Areas of Information Science to 2050

· 26 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Materials science and engineering is a discipline which correlates chemical compositions, processing, fabrication, structures and performance of materials and the related application. The main trends in the development of this discipline are: 1) The research and development of nano-materials and nano-structures have been deployed as the most important aspect in the strategy of materials science research. 2) Materials technologies related to information, biology and energy technologies have had rapid development, and attentions paid to these areas are increased. 3) More and more researches are done in optimizing materials properties by combining or integrating different materials, or exploring the new high-performance material systems. 4) The detailed characterization and measurement of material structures, new principles and techniques of ultra-fine assembly processing, have become the prime impetus for the pioneering development in materials science. 5) Greater emphasis has been placed on the development of computational materials science.

Materials Life-cycle Cost and Related Controlling Technologies The fabrication and application of materials mainly go through the following procedures: natural resources—raw materials—components—parts of an apparatus—a machine system—wastes/resources. Accordingly, the life-cycle cost of materials includes that for developing raw materials, fabrication, machining process, assemblage and integration, detection, maintenance, repair, and recycling. It is the accumulation of the materials consumption in resources, energy, human resources, environment, and other aspects during their service life cycle. With the development of socio-economy and the progress of science and technologies, it will be the inevitable trend to consider the life-cycle cost and analyze related controlling technologies of materials application. Materials life-cycle cost and related controlling technologies have become important topics with the most universal, urgent, and prospective characteristics in the area of materials science. The restraining factors are: cost from the dependence of resources, cost in the fabrication and processing of materials, cost and efficiency determined by the quality and reliability of materials properties, cost of pollution, and rate of recycling. The key factors of lowering the life-cycle cost can be achieved by breaking through the following core S&T problems: the prediction, design and control of materials service behavior; high efficient recycling of materials; integrating of materials structural characteristics and functional characteristics; technologies of characterizing materials structure as well as analyzing and testing of materials properties.

1 The World is at the Eve of a New S&T Revolution

· 27 ·

Roadmap 2050

Main Trends in the Development of Materials Science and Engineering

Roadmap 2050

2

The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization

2.1 China Must Be Fully Prepared for an Impending S&T Revolution Looking back at the modernization history, every great revolution in science and technology had had a far-reaching impact on the rise and fall of a nation, and the destiny of a country as well. The countries that were able to catch up the opportunity and achieve its economic take-off took the lead in fulfilling modernization. As the science center in the middle of the 18th century, the UK seized the opportunity of the first industrial revolution to develop itself, within less than 100 years, from an underdeveloped country with only 2% of the world population into a world economic power. When the science center transferred to Germany in the middle of the 19 th century, Germany caught up the opportunity of the second technology revolution to rapidly lift itself into a world industrial power. Likewise, the USA benefited itself greatly from the second technology revolution by lifting its gross industrial output value to the first place in the world in 1890 and subsequently exceeding the total of the UK, France and Germany in 1913. The science center transferred to the USA when World War II broke out. This enriched backing of science gave impetus to America’s rise as the world No. 1 power, a position which it has been proudly enjoying since then. In the 19th century, Japan took the full advantage of the second technology revolution and established its industrial base. By further seizing the opportunity of the third technology revolution after World War II, Japan rebuilt itself up by technology and achieved its economic take-off with 120 times of economic growth from 1950 to 1985, establishing itself as an economic power only second to the USA. The former Soviet Union accomplished its industrialization through science and technology in the first half of the 20th century. After the World War II, breakthroughs made in high-tech areas, such as aerospace, helped establish this country as an important component of the world political and economic structure.

2 The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization

· 29 ·

Roadmap 2050

However, the modern history witnessed China repeatedly losing opportunities in S&T revolution, and falling from a world economic power into a poverty-stricken country subject to insult and humiliation by other powers. When industrial civilization throve in Europe, the Qing Dynasty in China indulged itself in the so-called “Prosperous Time of Kangxi and Qianlong Emperors” with an unwarranted sense of pride in itself as a “Central Power of the Heaven”. It satisfied itself with the traditional mode of production as an agriculture society and turned a blind eye to the modern science and technology and industrial civilization, resulting in its loss of the opportunity in science revolution and industrial revolution. After the Opium War, West Powers invaded China by warships and artilleries. The Qing advocates of the Westernization initiated the Self-strengthening Movement to “introduce the advanced technologies of Western production for the purpose of defeating the Western countries”. The efforts failed due to the backward feudalistic system and its limited understanding of modern science and technology, which resulted in China’s loss of another opportunity in S&T revolution. When the second science revolution broke out at the beginning of the 20th century, China was still at an initial stage of development in modern science and technology. The warlords engaging in tangled warfare and subsequent foreign invasions caused China to lose another opportunity to save the nation by science and industries as well. During the “Cultural Revolution”, the precious S&T strength established since the founding of the People’s Republic of China had been badly destroyed, while a new round of technology revolution emerged one after another outside China, which once again widened the gap between China and the world level of science and technology. With an impending S&T revolution ahead, China can no longer be satisfied itself with the traditional mode of development, but must be fully prepared for this historic opportunity. Up to now, China has established a relatively complete system in science and technology with its S&T ability greatly raised and its innovation capacity rapidly increased. This backing of science better prepares China for a new round of revolution in science and technology. Tracing back to the end of the 19th century, China introduced the modern science and technology into the country by abolishing the imperial civil examination and establishing Western style schools, and launched the establishment of S&T system. Soon after the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the Chinese government established the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), launched its “Drive for Science”, worked out the National Long-term Plan for Developing Science and Technology (1956–1967) and put into practice. Hence, a relatively complete S&T system had been set up. After China’s opening-up and reform in the late 1970s, science thrived in China. Rejuvenating China through science and education, sustainable development, enriching China through talents, construction of the national innovation system, raising innovation capability, construction of an innovationdriven country and the like are all the strategic policies made in the period. The Outlined Plan for China’s Mid- and Long-term Science and Technology

Roadmap 2050

Development (2006–2020) has also been worked out and thus put into practice. China’s science and technology is undergoing a great development. In all, the increasing development of China’s overall S&T capacity narrows its gap with the world level in science. It keeps its pace with developed countries in some key research areas, while it has already reached to the world level or even ranked top in some emerging research areas. China’s output in science and technology increased fast; its innovation capacity has been greatly strengthened, the role of science and technology in socio-economic development largely enhanced, and the public awareness of innovation and science greatly improved. In the meantime, we must be fully aware that China’s innovation capacity and organizational mechanism are by far unable to address the challenge of a S&T revolution and the demand of modernization, as evidenced in the followings: The first is China’s deficiency in science innovation. In some research areas likely to make transformative breakthroughs, China mainly follows the tracks of the advanced level. Hardly any landmark science problem and theory have been initiated or discovered by the Chinese. The second is that China is still under other powers’ control in core technology. China still relies heavily on importing foreign technologies in many of its key industries. And it is slow in developing some leading strategic high technologies, which directly hinders the country’s upgrading in industrial structure, the development of emerging industries and national security as well. The third is that the mode of developing science and technology with Chinese characteristics has not yet been taken shape, as science and technology have not been fully employed in the economic development. The existing macro management system in science and technology fundamentally holds back the initiatives of the institutions into full play within the national innovation system. The government guidance is sometimes alienated into “institutional interests”, making it difficult to mobilize integrated resources to accomplish large undertakings. Market orientation is usually alienated into competition in disorder, instead of orderly competition and high-efficient cooperation. China is still deficient in its ability to make precise prediction of world S&T development and thus to work out foresighted plans to address the nation’s long-term development. A matured set of policies and rules to effectively compete for and retain creative talents has not yet been formed. The vigor and autonomy of innovation team and the confidence and initiatives of creative talents are in need of further promotion. Major developed countries in the world are preparing themselves fully for the impending S&T revolution by making strategic plans and foresighted arrangements. A whole series of major strategic research reports, innovation policies and long-term development plans have been put forwards at all once. In 2006, Innovate America: Thriving in a World of Challenge and Change, Rising above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future and American Competitiveness Initiative were released by the USA. In 2007, Innovation 2025: Long-term Strategic Guidelines and Technology Strategy Roadmap 2007 were promulgated by Japan. In recent years, the · 30 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The Transfer of the World Science Center The development of science has gone through a process from the rise of diversified units to the formation of the science center and its subsequent transfer. Over the modern history, the science center has taken its form in Italy, Britain, France, Germany and the USA in succession, which has helped provide the scientific backing for these countries to seize the opportunity of technology

2 The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization

· 31 ·

Roadmap 2050

developed countries and major international organizations have successively put forwards some development roadmap in research priorities. For instance, the European Space Agency issued, in 2001, the AURORA program, aiming at 2030/2040 to send human on Mars. NASA of the USA, in 2004, released new exploration initiative for returning human beings to the Moon and further to land on Mars in 2030s. The European Commission promulgated European Roadmap for Research Infrastructures Report 2006, outlining Europe’s priorities in research infrastructure in the next 10–20 years. And the International Energy Agency released Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, pinpointing 17 energy roadmaps to 2050. In his tour to CAS at the end of 2004, Chinese President Hu Jintao made the clear requirement that CAS “must enhance its ability of forecasting the world development in science and technology, stick on enhancing science innovation with a view of catching up with the world level and promoting technology innovation with a view of raising its international competitiveness, and strive for taking a guiding role in the nation’s S&T development.” At the joint session of the General Assembly of CAS and CAE in 2006, he made further requirement that both CAS and CAE “must take into full play their strengths in crossdisciplinary, inter-departments and high-level research, and provide strategic, foresighted and comprehensive consultations for the decision-makings over such key S&T problems related to socio-economic development, raising people’s living standard, and ensuring national defense and security.” In 2007, CAS launched its strategic research on roadmap for priority areas to 2050, with the participation of over 300 CAS experts in science, technology, and management, including about 60 CAS members, and engaged in eighteen research areas. The purpose is to forecast the world development in science and technology, figure out the new demands by S&T innovation in China’s modernization drive, and make strategic plans for future development. After over one year’s hard work, the strategic demands on priority areas in China’s modernization drive to 2050 have been sorted out, some core S&T problems been raised, and relevant S&T roadmap been worked out based on China’s reality. CAS strategic research serial reports will be released successively for the public.

Roadmap 2050

revolutions to take the lead in the world economy. Italy became the science center from the mid-16th century to mid-17th century, mainly represented by Galileo’s Discourse and Mathematical Demonstration Relating to Two New Sciences: the Strength of Materials and the Motion of Objects(1638). The UK came to be the center of science from the mid-17th century to mid- and late 18th century, mainly represented by Newton’s Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy. France developed into the science center from the mid- and late 18th century to the 1830s, mainly represented by Lavoisier’s Theory of Combustion. Germany took the role of the science center from the 1830s to late 1930s, mainly represented by Einstein’s Theory of Relativity and Planck’s Quantum Theory. Since the late 1930s, the USA has been the center of science, mainly represented by its world-leading strength in natural sciences and high-technology. The transfer of the science center is a relative concept. It is often the case that several centers coexist at the same time. For example, when the center was in Italy, N. Copernicus of Poland published De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium, and Vesalius from Belgium published De Humani Corporis Fabrica. When France and Germany became the science centers in succession, the UK still kept its position as a science center, and produced such important achievements as Dalton’s AtomicMolecular Theory, Farady’s Law of Electro-Magnetic Induction, Maxwell’s Theory of Electromagnetic Field, and Darwin’s Theory of Evolution. The formation of the science center depends on many factors, and is usually related to the development of culture, economy, society and the organizational structure of science. With the globalization and the development of a knowledgebased economy, it is possible that the world science structure will transfer the single science center to multiple ones, enabling those countries with a strong scientific backing to seize the opportunity of a new round S&T revolution.

The National Long-term Plan for Developing Science and Technology (1956–1967) In the spring of 1955, CAS proposed to the central government that a national committee for the S&T development planning be established, and in February of the next year, it took the lead in finalizing the draft of CAS S&T Development Plan in the upcoming 15 years. In January 1956, the late Premier Zhou Enlai asked the State Planning Commission, together with relevant departments, to work out the National Long-term Plan for Developing Science and Technology (1956–1967). He further stressed that: “The most advanced achievements in the world science must be ushered in China’s scientific, national defense, manufacturing and educational departments, as soon as possible, for the benefits of the S&T development badly needed by our national reconstruction. It is expected that, after 12 years, China’s S&T development in those areas might be on a par with those of the Soviet Union and other world powers.” On February 24th, 1956, the Party Central Committee’s Politburo approved the

· 32 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

2 The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization

· 33 ·

Roadmap 2050

inauguration of the Science Planning Committee of the State Council, appointing Yi Chen to be the Director, with Fuchun Li, Moruo Guo, Yibo Bo and Siguang Li as the deputy directors. Jingfu Zhang, Vice President of CAS, was appointed as the secretary-general. The Committee organized and brought together some 600–700 Chinese scientists and some Soviet experts to work out the plan. As a result, the Draft of the National Long-term Plan for Developing Science and Technology (1956–1967) (well-known as “the 12-year plan”) was completed in August of 1956. In December of the same year, the Party’s Central Committee ratified the plan. The plan adopted the principle of “promoting a scientific discipline by a specific research tasks” in line with national economy and national defense, 57 research tasks and 616 research projects in 13 scientific areas had been identified, including 12 key research projects, namely: 1) The peaceful application of atomic energy; 2) the super-high frequency technology, semi-conductor expertise, electronic computers, telecontrol technology, electronic devices & instruments and telemetric control; 3) The technology regarding jet propulsion; 4) Automation of manufacturing processes & precision instruments; 5) The geological prospecting of oil and other scarce resources, search, investigation and positioning of major mineral-producing bases such as hydrocarbon reservoirs etc.; 6) In search of new metallurgical processes by establishing new alloyed systems in line with the actual conditions of the mineral trove in China; 7) The comprehensive utilization of fuels and development of novel processes in organic synthesis for heavy industries; 8) Some key problems in developing new types of power-generating machinery and large-dimension machinery; 9) The key S&T issues and problems concerning a multifarious approach for the integrated development of the big rivers such as the Yangtze, the Yellow River, etc.; 10) Some key science problems arising from the application of chemicals, mechanization & electrification to update Chinese agriculture; 11) The prevention, control and elimination of some fatal diseases (which would harm) people’s health, and 12) Some key problems in the fundamental theories of natural sciences. Required by the late Premier Zhou Enlai, the Emergency Scheme for the Development of Computing Technology, Semi-conductors, Radio Electronics, Automation & Long-distance Control was enacted and put in practice in May 1956, effectively supporting the country’s successful launch of the A-bomb, H-bomb and Man-made satellite. By 1963, 50 research tasks out of the 57, enlisted in the 12-year plan, had been completed, some of which were finished ahead of the schedule and applied to industrial practices. It proved that the 12-year plan had played a key role in concentrating the country’s limited R&D resources on some key and tangible S&T endeavors. As a result, Chinese S&T undertakings saw a burgeoning development. Some emerging scientific disciplines such as: semi-conductors, electronics, computational science, nuclear physics and the know-how on rocket carriers had been set up, which not only filled some research blanks in domestic researches but also greatly reduced the gap of S&T between Chinese and the developed countries, providing a solid S&T backing for the nation’s sustained and steady industrialization.

Roadmap 2050

The National Innovation System & CAS Knowledge Innovation Program (KIP) In December of 1997, CAS submitted a strategic research report, entitled Meeting the Era of Knowledge-based Economy & Constructing a National Innovation System, based on its detailed analysis of the world development of knowledgebased economy as well as the challenges and opportunities China was facing at the time. The report provided fundamental thoughts and scientific grounds for the construction of the national innovation system with Chinese characteristics, and was thus highly acknowledged by the Central government. On February, 1998, the then President Jiang Zemin made a written directive on the report as the follows: “both knowledge-based economy and the awareness of innovation are of paramount importance to the national development in the 21st century. The ongoing financial crisis of the Southeast Asian countries will impede the traditional industries, but will provide a rare opportunity for reshaping the industrial structure. The tentative proposals, in the report, envisaged and contrived by CAS are feasible, and, in addition, the competitive research professionals of CAS are of a strength. I trust that we could support CAS to take the lead and initiate some pilot projects, in an effort to build up a knowledge-based innovation system with Chinese characteristics.” In 1998, the central government decided to give its strategic priority to building up a national innovation system, and, in June of the same year, the State Council approved the pilot projects of the Knowledge Innovation Program. KIP comes into three phases: The initiating phase (1998–2000), the fully implementing phase (2001–2005), and the sustainable development phase (2006–2010). In the enforcement of KIP, CAS clarified its strategic position, mapped out the guidelines for running the Academy, introduced further readjustments of its disciplinary layout, and succeeded in the transfer from the elder generation to the new generation in the course of its R&D staff succession. In addition to the all-round success in restructuring its managerial system and drastic increase in pouring more investments into the CAS infrastructure, the Academy’s innovation capabilities saw a soaring development, and more important S&T innovation and research results emerged. The enforcement of KIP pushed China’s reform on S&T system into a new stage of the national innovation system, promoted its social awareness of innovations, and raised China’s profile in international scientific community.

The Outlined Plan for China’s Mid- and Long-term Science and Technology Development (2006–2020) In February 2006, the State Council formally issued the Outlined Plan for China’s Mid- and Long-term Science and Technology Development (2006–2020). Its drafting work lasted for 3 years and brought together a panel of over 2000 experts and scholars, with Premier Wen Jiabao as the Head of the panel. Based

· 34 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

2.2 New Demands on S&T Innovation in China’s Modernization Process With 2050 in prospect, China will enter into the stage of a moderately developed country bustling with the following developments: Up to 2050, China will be a country highly developed in political civilization. Its socialist democracy and legal system will be greatly improved. Various nationalities of the Chinese nation will be united as one and living in a stable society. Chinese people’s political right and development right will be given into full play. And the national security will be ensured. Up to 2050, China will be a country developed in material civilization. Its gross industrial output value will top the world No.1, with its GDP per capita reaching to the level of the moderate developed country. Its economy keeps growing in a stable and balanced way. Its capability in S&T innovation will be raised to the world level and its people will lead a wealthy, healthy and happy life. Up to 2050, China will be a country highly developed in social civilization. Social fairness and justice will prevail. Its citizens will lead a healthier life in a harmonious society. Sufficient job opportunities will be created for the labor force. Its social security system will be strengthened. Urbanization will be realized. Unbalanced regional developments will be improved. The whole society will be full of vigor and vitality. Up to 2050, China will be a country highly advanced in culture and ethics. Its citizens will enjoy the right of a qualified compulsory education. Higher education will be popularized. And life-long learning will become a way of life. The largest number of vibrant and pioneering talents will be available, and the ethics of patriotism, professional dedication, honesty and kindness will prevail 2 The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization

· 35 ·

Roadmap 2050

on China’s reality and with a view of the world science, the outlined plan makes an all-round arrangement for the national S&T development in the upcoming 15 years, and is considered as an indispensable guideline for future concrete actions in this regard. It highlights the overall objective for S&T development by 2020 as follows: Both the national innovation capability and the S&T capability to ensure socioeconomic progress and national security should be enhanced so as to provide a powerful backing for China’s drive for a better-off society. The comprehensive R&D strength in basic research and frontier technology should be reinforced, some S&T research results up to the world level should be achieved, and every efforts should be made to lift China into an innovation-driven country in the world, so as to provide a solid backing for China to become a S&T power in the mid-21st century. The outlined plan includes eleven priority areas, sixty-two priority research schemes, sixteen designated projects, and research projects in eight frontier technologies and four basic sciences.

Roadmap 2050

in the society. The beauty of Chinese culture and that of the world various nationalities will enhance each other. Up to 2050, China will be a country highly developed in conservation culture. Man and nature coexist harmoniously. The deteriorating ecoenvironment will be effectively under control. It will be a comfortably inhabited place with blue sky, green hills and clear waters. Up to 2050, China will be a country broadly open to the outsiders. It will become an important component to help maintain world peace and justice. Its people will coexist with other peoples of the world friendly and equally. It will be able to take full advantages of the world knowledge to develop itself, and, at the same time, try to make its due contributions to the world. In its historic drive for the ambitious goal, China faces the opportunity of a new round of S&T revolution, while confronts with severe challenges in such fields as energy and resources, eco-environment, population and health, space and ocean, and conventional and non-conventional security, the latter of which are of critical importance to determine, to a greater extent, the success or failure of China’s modernization drive. As such, S&T innovation must be employed to build up the eight basic and strategic systems for socio-economic development towards modernization and a socialist better-off society as well. The eight basic and strategic systems are identified as: the system of sustainable energy and resources, the green system of advanced materials and intelligent manufacturing, the system of ubiquitous information networking, the system of ecological and high-value agriculture and biological industry, the generally applicable health assurance system, the development system of ecological and environmental conservation, the expanded system of space and ocean exploration capability, and the national and public security system. Energy, oil & gas, minerals and water are resources coming from nature. They constitute the material base for China’s modernization. China is among the countries with the lowest per capita possession of natural resources, but its demand on energy and resources keeps growing rapidly. Hopefully, the total demands will return, from 2025 to 2040, to a moderate increase from its rapid growth, but with still a larger increase in total number compared with the present quota. For instance, the total demands on staple mineral products such as steel, aluminum, and copper will be likely to reach to 700 million tons, 15 million tons and 7 million tons around 2025, with an increase of 40%, 45%, and 75% respectively over that in 2008. The total demand on water resources may amount to 650 billion m3 up to 2030, with an increase of 11.7% over 2007. The total consumption of energy may reach to 6 billion tce around 2040, over twice the increase of that in 2008. In terms of the storage and supply of natural resources, the supply has reached to its bottleneck, and the efficiency of energy utilization is low. The severe shortage of oil, gas and mineral resources leads to the excessive dependence on importation, which constituted a major threat to China’s economic security. The emerging problems in water resources, water environment and water disasters will be on a rise. Two thirds of the over 600 · 36 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

2 The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization

· 37 ·

Roadmap 2050

cities nationwide are short of water, and the water supply of over 110 cities are in serious shortage. Meanwhile, the seven major water sections whose water quality is worse than the surface water standard of Grade V account for 20.8%. Therefore, we must employ S&T innovations to develop the system of sustainable energy and resources. On the one hand, efforts must be done to improve the efficient use of energy and resources. On the other hand, efforts must be done to explore strategic resources such as resources in continental shelf and deep earth, and to exploit new energy, renewable energy and replaceable energy. Materials and manufacturing constitute the material base of human civilization. Manufacturing industry is the major industrial player in national economy. In the coming 30–50 years, the demand on materials and manufacturing from energy, information, environment, population and health, and key projects will be on a constant rise. Advanced materials and manufacturing with globalizing, greening and intelligent characteristics will develop rapidly. And a clean, high-efficient and environmental-friendly manufacturing process will be the major pursuit of the world. China has become a big manufacturing country in the world, but is still far from a manufacturing power. Many products still remain in the low rank of international industrial chain. Despite having the biggest output of many fundamental raw materials and industrial products, China still depends on importing from foreign countries for high-performance materials, core components and various giant facilities. Most core industrial technologies are controlled by advanced countries. Our abilities of independent R&D still have a long way to go in catching up with those of the developed countries. The utilization ratio of resources and production efficiency in China is still far lower than those of the advanced international standards. Utilization ratio of secondary resources just equals to one third of the advanced international standards. In addition, the environment in China has been polluted seriously. The amount of greenhouse gases emissions from steel and cement industries accounts for one third of the total emission in the world. Therefore, in order to become a country with strong manufacturing technologies, we must employ S&T innovation to build up the green system of advanced materials and intelligent manufacturing. Efforts must be done to speed up the process of introducing environmental-friendly, intelligent and cyclic renewable technologies in fabricating materials and manufacturing products, to promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure and adjusting the employment structure, and to ensure the effective supporting of materials and equipments for the progress of China’s modernization, and the related clean, high efficient, cyclic renewable utilization. China is now at the middle stage of an industrial society, and will fully step into the information society up to 2050. This process could be roughly divided into two phases: e-society and u-society, and here “u” means ubiquitous and universal. Before 2020, we will mainly develop electronic and digital technologies for the e-society, to fortify a solid foundation for the u-society,

Roadmap 2050

where information service is ubiquitous and universal throughout the country. From 2020 to 2050, China will have completed its transition from e-society to u-society, where anyone, anything, anywhere can interconnect at any time, share information, and work cooperatively. Ubiquitous information network is evolving rapidly and entering the stage of mass adoption. The pervasiveness and universal adoption of information network, together with low power consumption, low cost, higher trustiness, autonomous management and personalization will become the mainstream of information technology in the coming decades. In the transition of human society to a service society, we will see the emergences of new information processing systems and application solutions, and information network will penetrate into every aspect of human activities, influence and alter people’s life style, create new forms of jobs, provide substantial employment opportunities, and raise social productivity. It is necessary to make fundamental and profound breakthroughs, both in information science, and in information device, equipment and software. The strong market demand brought about by the u-society will stimulate information science to advance with a great leap within 20 to 30 years after 2020. China’s information industry ranks the second in the world on output scale. However, it faces the problems of weak innovation capability, inadequate supply of information science and technology, few core intellectual properties, low profit margin, and high informationalization cost. Reviewing China’s development process of information science and technology over the past decades, we see the main lesson be the lack of long-term, and forward-looking strategic plans, thus having lost several opportunities when information technology underwent paradigm changes. Therefore, we must seize the upcoming opportunity of transformative breakthrough and paradigm changes in information science and technology in the first half of the 21st Century, to speed up the growth, raise the application level, and eliminate digital divide. We need to explore a path of sustainable development featuring universal adoption of trustworthy and low-cost IT. A key measure is to speed up the construction of an information net system that is ubiquitous throughout the country and universally shared by every citizen. Demand for agricultural products will rise substantially in China. There will be an increasing demand for food and fiber. Consumptions of dairy and fishery products will be triple in the next 5 decades. China’s agricultural development will face both great opportunities and enormous challenges. The major development opportunities include expanding agricultural market, increasing comparative advantage of agriculture, improving agricultural structure, and agricultural S&T development. Meantime, serious security threats in arable land, water resources and eco-environment, the conflict between small farming and agricultural modernization, trade-off between food safety and rising demand for agricultural multi-functions, and impacts of global climate changes on agriculture are major challenges which China will have to face in the coming decades. Therefore, we must employ S&T innovation to build up the · 38 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

2 The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization

· 39 ·

Roadmap 2050

system of ecological and high-value agriculture and biological industry. Efforts must be done to facilitate smooth transformation of China’s agriculture toward high yield, high quality, high efficiency, and eco-friendly agriculture, which will also improve China’s food safety. The pursuit for a healthier life runs through China’s modernization process. At present, the major threat to health in China is chronic diseases, particularly, cardio-vascular disease, tumor, metabolic disease and neural degeneration disease. The death toll from chronic diseases now is three-quarter of the country’s mortality. Major infectious diseases such as hepatitis have not yet been under control. AIDS is still prevailing. Emerging infectious diseases such as SARS, Influenza A H1N1 and bird flu pose big threat to Chinese people. The issue of food safety becomes a severe problem. The birth defect rate is on a rise. Population control is a tough job. And psychological diseases such as Internet addiction are emerging. In addition, biomedical industry is far from meeting the domestic demands. Almost all advanced medical apparatus and instruments rely on importation. And there are few major drug discoveries. Therefore, we must depend on scientific and technological innovation to build up the generally applicable health assurance system for China’s one billion-plus population. Efforts must be done to transform the therapy-oriented medicine to a system based on predictive intervention, and to combine the frontier life science with the strength of traditional Chinese medicine, and to strive for taking a leading role in the area of health science in the world. Eco-environmental problems have become one of the major bottlenecks impeding China’s modernization process. This manifests prominently that environmental pollution is extending from the land to the coastal waters, from the surface into the underground and from a single pollution to complex pollution. The ecosystem health is worsening, and fragile ecosystems are seriously degraded. Deserts are rapidly expanding, and the desertification land areas cover 2.622 million km2, accounting for 27.3% of the total land area and about 400 million people are affected. Approximately 3.67 million km 2, or about 38% of the total land area, are heavily eroded, and China lost more than 5.0 billion tons of soil each year by water and soil erosion. The number of wildlife species has sharply dropped and the proportion of endangered species generally ranges from 20% to 40%. The urban environmental problems also wide spread, such as urban heat islands, low energy efficiency, complex environmental pollution, deteriorating livability, and frequently occurring natural disasters. Hazards of persistent toxic pollutants are expanding, and emerging pollutants are entering the environment, which will have a more farreaching and unpredictable impact on ecosystems and human health. China will soon become the top emitter of carbon dioxide, and face severe challenges in the negotiations of international convention on climate change. Therefore, we must employ S&T innovation to build up the development system of ecological and environmental conservation for China’s harmonious development between human and nature. Efforts must be done to thoroughly understand the rules

Roadmap 2050

of environment changes, to raise China’s capabilities in eco-environmental monitoring, pollution prevention, ecological restoration and tackling the global climate change, and to enhance its ability of prediction,prevention and mitigation of natural disasters. Related technologies and measures must be developed in order to provide the best solutions. There are huge resources newly acquainted but yet undeveloped in space and ocean, and the modernization progress keeps man expanding into these two territories. For China, as a modern country with the largest population, strong exploration capability in space and ocean is necessary. In the 21st century, the ocean is the largest supportive resource for sustainable development of mankind. The amount of undersea natural gas hydrate is estimated twice as much as that of fossil fuels currently known on the earth. Competition for resources in the high seas tends increasingly fierce. The capacity of exploration in the ocean and submarine realm has become a key factor on future development of a country. However, our scientific research into marine scope remains very limited, and yet the technological means are very weak, which would seriously hamper the China’s ability to protect the nation’s marine rights and interests, to prevent natural disasters, and to defense the country’s security. Knowledge-based marine economy is becoming and will keep moving towards a new growth point of global economics. China owns 3 million km2 maritime territory areas and Exclusive Economic zone with over 6500 islands in-between; and the marine industry has made great progresses and still has huge potential. China has 18,000 km long coastal line. And its coastal provinces gather relatively more developed economic zones, foster 40% of the nation’s population, and contribute nearly 60% of the total GDP. Their sustainable development will play a pervasive and leading role for the development of the region and the whole country as well. What is vaster than the ocean is space. It is a main trend for global space activities to acquire new knowledge of the law governing the universe evolution and matter motion, lead and promote the high-tech innovation, improve the abilities of earth observation, information transmission and navigation positioning, utilize new energy and resources, and expand into a new territory for human activities. Space powers in the world put much emphasis on and invest a huge amount into space activities so as to promote their space capabilities. In spite of the significant progress scored in this field, China is still lagging far behind the countries with advanced science and technology. For instance, the first breakthroughs and great discoveries in space were not made by Chinese. While our Chang’e-1 satellite was orbiting the Moon, the American Probe Voyager had already approached the edge of solar system, with the distance accounted as 43,000 times as that between the Earth and the Moon. The lifespan of China’s spacecrafts is far shorter than that of space advanced countries, which directly prevents us from establishing an independent space application satellite system. Meanwhile, we also should see that there are still great opportunities in space development: the utilization of near space (20–100 km) is nearly vacant, the utilization of the potential · 40 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

2 The New S&T Revolution Provides Historical Opportunities for China’s Modernization

· 41 ·

Roadmap 2050

resources on the Moon and those in solar system remains on the stage of theoretical discussion, and the huge amount of unknown matter and energy can only be generally described with the word “Dark”. Therefore, S&T innovation must be stressed to improve China’s ocean exploration and application ability, ocean resources development and utilization ability, space science and technology ability, and the ability of earth observation and multi-spatial information application, in order to establish the expanded system of space and ocean exploration capability. We must be fully aware that, in the modernization process, man’s concept on national and public security has been largely broadened by globalization and S&T development. The conventional security faces great challenges, and the challenge to unconventional security is on the rise. Once interweaving with each other, they will pose great threats to the sustainable and healthy development of China. Among them, space security, marine security, bio-security and Internet security have a significant impact on China’s modernization. Therefore, we must employ S&T innovation to build up the national and public security system. Efforts must be made to develop both conventional and non-conventional security technologies, and to improve its monitoring, early warning and quickresponse capacities.

Roadmap 2050

3

China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socioeconomic Development

The eight basic and strategic systems for social-economic development lays out scenarios for eight priority areas in China’s modernization process, reflecting the national strategic demand on S&T innovation. Throughout one year’s efforts, we have identified its structure, characteristics, concrete steps and research support needed. With that, we have worked out the S&T roadmap for priority areas.

3.1 The System of Sustainable Energy and Resources The system of sustainable energy and resources of China mainly includes sustainable energy system, development and recycling utilization system of mineral resources, water conservation and efficient utilization system and etc. Its overall objective is to ensure an effective supply and high-efficient use of energy and resources in each stage of the modernization process. It is projected that the energy and resources bottleneck will be relieved by around 2020, the peak demand of energy and resources will be satisfied by S&T innovation of energy and resources by around 2030. Then, by around 2050, the system of sustainable energy and resources with Chinese characteristics will be established, the energy and resources industries will have international competitiveness, and S&T innovation capability will rank the most advanced in the world (Table 3.1). Table 3.1 Characteristics and objectives for China’s sustainable energy and natural resources system to 2050 Category

Sustainable energy system

By around 2020

By around 2030

By around 2050

Total

4.5 billion tce

6 billion tce

6.6 billion tce

Energy structure

Fossil energy: 80%; new and renewable energy: 16%; nuclear power: 4%

Fossil energy: 66%; new and renewable energy: 27%; nuclear power: 7%

Fossil energy: 45%; new and renewable energy: 45%; nuclear power: 10%

Category Sustainable energy system

Mineral cycled use system

By around 2020

By around 2030

By around 2050

Energy saving*

50% (compared with 2005)

60%

40%

Carbon emission**

50% (compared with 2005)

50%

60%

Proven resources ratio: 50%; exploited depth: Solid miner <2,000 m (middle and eastern China)

Proven resources ratio: 50%; exploited depth: <2,000 m (western China)

Proven resources ratio: 70%; exploited depth: <4,000 m

Proven oil and gas resources ratio: 50%, Oil and gas 30%; exploited depth: 8,000 m

Proven oil and gas ratio: Proven oil and gas ratio: 70%, 60%; exploited 60%, 50%; exploited depth: 10,000 m depth: 12,000 m

Recovery ratio: 50%; comprehensive use Use ratio of ratio: 45%; replacement solid miner and recycled ratio: 20%–40%

Recovery ratio: 70%; comprehensive use ratio: 60%; replacement and recycled ratio: 30%–50%

Use ratio of Recovery ratio: 40%; oil and gas replacement ratio: 10%

Recovery ratio: 60%; Recovery ratio: 50%; replacement ratio: replacement ratio: 20% 30%–40%

Total water 600 billion m3 supply

650 billion m3

550 billion m3

Industrial reuse ratio: 50%; the utilization rate of agriculture irrigation water: 65%

Industrial reuse ratio: 65%; the utilization rate of agriculture irrigation water: 75%

Industrial reuse ratio: 85%; the utilization rate of agriculture irrigation water: 85%

80%

90%

100%

Water Water conservation saving and efficient utilization Urban system sewage treatment rate

Recovery ratio: 80%; comprehensive use ratio: 80%; replacement and recycled ratio: 40%–60%

*

Energy saving refers to the declined proportion of energy consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP compared with the previous stage, which is calculated according to the constant price of the year 2005. ** Carbon emission refers to the declined proportion of CO2 emission per ten thousand Yuan GDP compared with the previous stage, which is calculated according to the constant price of the year 2005.

Characteristic Indicators for Energy The total energy consumption refers to the total energy consumption of various sectors of works and the annual consumption of the residents. The total amount of energy-consuming in China was 2.66 billion tce in 2007. The energy structure refers to the composition and proportionate relationships of different energies in total amount of primary energy. The energy structure of the country in 2007 was as follows: fossil energy (coal, petroleum, and natural gas) was 92.7%, hydropower 6.5%, nuclear power 0.8%. National energy efficiency refers to the efficiency of an energy system including not only primary energy input, transmission, processing, conversion, but also

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 43 ·

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.1 (Continued)

Roadmap 2050

secondary energy, the transmission and distribution of primary energy for direct use and end-use sectors etc. In 2005, China’s energy consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP was 1.22 tce. In 2004, China’s carbon dioxide emission of ten thousand Yuan GDP was 3.13t.

Characteristic Indicators for Minerals The proven rate of mineral resources refers to the percentage of the proven mineral resources of potential resource reserves in the earth’s crust. The figure of China is about 30% at present, the depth of exploration is usually less than 500 m. The total recovery rate of mineral resources refers to the percentage of the recycled during mining, ore dressing and smelting, and is a comprehensive evaluation index to reflect the level of development and utilization of resources of mineral products. The total recovery rate of mineral resources in China is only about 30% at present, and is 20% lower than that of the world most advanced level. The comprehensive utilization ratio of mineral resources refers to the ratio of the useful components in the total portion of paragenetic and associated minerals. The comprehensive utilization ratio of mineral resources in China is only about 35% on average at present, and the tailing utilization ratio is less than 10%. There exist severe wastes of resources.

Characteristic Indicators for Oil and Gas Resources The proved rate of oil and gas resources refers to the ratio of the accumulation proved oil and gas resources to the total amount of geological resources. By the end of 2007, the accumulation proved oil resources in China is about 65 billion tons, the proved rate is about 39%; the accumulation proved gas resources is about 25 trillion m3, and the proved rate is about 24.6%. In China, the target strata of current exploration are principally buried in depth ranges shallower than 3500 m in eastern basins, and 4500 m in western basins. The crude oil recovery refers to the ratio of the produced crude oil to the total amount of geological resources. The crude oil recovery varies much in different oil fields in China, with an average value of 30%. In some testing areas in the Daqing Oil Field and the Shengli Oil Field this value may be up to 70%. The substitution rate of unconventional oil and gas refers to the ratio of production of unconventional oil and gas in the year to the total production of oil and gas. Currently, the substitution rate of unconventional oil and gas is still very low in China.

Characteristic Indicators for Water The total water supply refers to the total amount of water supplied by water supply facilities and enterprises. The total water supply reached at 581.9 billion m3 in 2007. The reuse rate of industrial water refers to the ratio of the total reused water to that of the water consumption, within a certain measurable time, during the industrial production process. This figure of China is less than 40%. The utilization rate of irrigation water refers to the ratio of the water utilized by crops in the field to the total amount for irrigation that is withdrawn from the water sources. It reflects the efficiencies of water conveyance and utilization in the field. It is an important indicator for the measuring of field crops’ water use efficiency. And it is able to indicate the status of irrigation facilities, the level of water use management and the level of irrigation technology. The ratio is about 46% in China.

· 44 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

3.1.1 To Establish a Sustainable Energy System within the Context of China’s S&T Roadmap for Energy to 2050 Research priorities should be given to ten key technology developments such as: efficient land traffic technology using non-fossil fuels, clean and high value-added coal technology, electric grid stability technology, bio-fuel and raw material technology, large-scale renewable energy power generation, enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), hydrogen utilization technology, exploitation and use technology of natural gas hydrate, new generation nuclear power and nuclear waste processing technology (mainly including accelerator-driven systems), potential energy technology (including ocean energy, new solar cell and nuclear fusion). Great effort should be made to break through key technological barriers, and to advance relevant technology integration, test demonstration and commercialized application. The concrete strategic steps are as follows: by around 2020, breakthroughs should be made in clean coal technology to establish an industrial system for coal-based energy and chemical engineering, in rail transportation technology and advanced electric vehicles technology to establish a system of commercialized use of electric transportation. While taking the full use of the existing advanced hydropower and EHV power grid, breakthroughs should be made in solar-thermal power, solar PV power and wind power generation technology, in order to set up a technological and industrial system with renewable energy as a major source. By around 2035, breakthroughs in the technology of biomass to liquid fuels should be made and applied to commercial use. Based on the breakthroughs in high-capacity low-loss electric power transmission technology, scattered, unstable renewable energy grid-connected power generation and distributed grid technology, the share of power equipment security protection technology and new grid security protection technology will reach 90%. A new, distributed and independent micro-grid power system with solar power and wind power generation will be initially established. And breakthroughs in the key technology of new nuclear power generation and nuclear waste processing should be made to establish an advanced nuclear power industrial system with Chinese characteristics. By around 2050, breakthroughs in the technology of natural gas hydrate, hydrogen, fuel cell car, deep geothermal power and ocean energy generation should be made in order to shape a diversified energy mix including fossil energy, renewable energy, and nuclear power, and thus establish an innovation-based energy industry system with Chinese characteristics (Fig. 3.1).

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 45 ·

Roadmap 2050

The rate of urban sewage refers to the ratio of the total urban sewage treatment to the total urban sewage treatment. The ratio was about 59% in 2007.

Efficient land traffic technology using non-fossil fuels Clean and high value added use of coal technology Electric network security and stability technology

Coal gasification technology New combustion and power generation technology of coal Efficient utilization technology of low-rank coal Key technology breakthroughs: large-scale coal gasification, new coal combustion, chemical product based on coal and catalyst technology

Fuel cell cars technology New rail transportation technology

Large-scale electric network security technology Key technology breakthroughs: new power electronic devices, massive data processing and transmission and superconducting power technology Network couple technology of renewable energy power generation Key technology breakthroughs: distributed generation system organized in microgrid system, distributed and intelligent distribution networks, distributed energy storage system

Biomass to liquid fuels and raw material technology

Biomass to liquid fuels technology Key technology breakthroughs: fuel oil, alcohol fuel and other fuels Industrial plant and plant selection technology Key technology breakthroughs: seed selection and planting of energy plants, oil-bearing microalgae and aquatic biomaterial Advanced biomass industrialization technology Key technology breakthroughs: manufacture technology of industry plant, biological material, liquid fuel, bulk chemicals, energy transformation technology based on bionics Wind power technology Key technology breakthroughs: high performance-price ratio and high-reliability wind turbine, large-scale use of wind power

Large-scale renewable energy power generation technology

Solar photovoltaic generation technology Key technology breakthroughs: solar cell, photovoltaic generation system, new concept solar cell Solar thermal power generation technology Key technology breakthroughs: trough solar thermal power generation, solar tower power generation, solar thermal power generation with dish concentrators Ocean power generation technology Wave power electricity generation, tidal power generation, tidal current energy generation Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technology Key technology breakthroughs: location, drilling, reservoirs, geothermal resource assessment and environment evaluation Biomass electricity generation technology

Nuclear power technology

Key technology breakthroughs: biomass direct combustion power generation, biomass multi-fuel combustion, and biomass gasification

New energy technology

Roadmap 2050

Key technology breakthroughs: motor driving, cell and power electronics integration

Electric vehicles technology

New nuclear power and nuclear waste processing technology Key technology breakthroughs: generation IV reactor, accelerator-driven systems, and nuclear waste processing technologies Natural gas hydrate development and utilization technology Key technology breakthroughs: resource evaluation, production and utilization, environmental impact, geological security Hydrogen energy utilization technology Key technology breakthroughs: hydrogen energy production and transportation technologies, fuel cells technologies

2008

2020

2035

2050

Fig. 3.1 China’s S&T roadmap for energy to 2050

· 46 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

On the basis of the systematic understanding of the unique evolution history of the lithosphere in China, three major scientific questions including the accumulation process of a large amount of ore-forming materials, the temporal and spacial distribution regularities of ore deposits, and the relationship between the metallogenic models and the mineral exploration models should be solved specifically. The breakthrough on our important technological fields including the prospecting of mineral resources in deep earth, the high-efficient and clean utilization of mineral resources, the substitutes for important scarce mineral resources, and the comprehensive and cycling utilization of mineral resources should be specifically made. The techniques associated with the research and exploration of mineral resources should be intensively agglomerated, experimented, demonstrated and applied. The future strategic arrangements are given below. From present to 2020, the metallogenic regularities and exploration potential of the main metallogenic belts and domains in China should be defined. The breakthrough on the insitu precise analytical techniques of elements for field geological investigation, the airborne geophysical exploration techniques, the high precision techniques for acquiring metallogenic information, and the high resolution geophysical exploration techniques which are able to detect anomalous mineral information down to 2000 m deep in eastern China should be made. The mining, processing and smelting recoveries of mineral resources, and the comprehensive utilization ratio of the paragenetic and associated deposits in key mines should be improved. The pilot research and development on the techniques of making substitutes for scarce mineral resources should be initiated and undertaken. The breakthrough on the techniques for high-efficient recovering and utilizing scrap metals should be made. From 2020 to 2030, the theoretical system on the continental metallogeny of China should be established. The breakthrough on the high efficiency and high-precision geophysical exploration techniques which are able to detect anomalous mineral information down to 2000 m underneath the surface in western China should be made. The high efficiency and clean techniques for recovering useful metals from low grade ore and tailing mud should be developed. The techniques for making insoluble potassium ore to fertilizer should be developed. From 2030 to 2050, the relationship between the earth system and the metallogeny system should be revealed and delineated. The techniques for prospecting mineral resources 3000–4000 m underneath the surface should be developed. A series of core techniques for high-efficient and clean utilization of mineral resources should be developed and established. The techniques for silicate fiber substituting staple metal materials should be 3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 47 ·

Roadmap 2050

3.1.2 To Establish a Development and Cyclic Utilization System for Mineral Resources within the Context of China’s S&T Roadmap for the Solid Mineral Resources to 2050 as well as China’s S&T Roadmap for Oil and Gas Resources to 2050

Metallogeny theory and metallogeny regularities

The background and process of the accumulation of a large quantity of ore-forming materials The temporal and spacial distribution regularities of ore deposits The relationship between the metallogenic models and the mineral exploration models To define metallogenic regularities and exploration potential of the main metallogenic belts and domains in China

To establish the theoretical system on the continental metallogeny of China

The high-efficient and clean utilization of mineral resources

The exploration of mineral resources in deep earth

The airborne gravity and magnetic gradiometry and transient electro-magnetic(TEM) method

The substituting and cyclic utilization of important mineral resources

Roadmap 2050

developed and established (Fig. 3.2).

1200 kW, 0.1–300 Hz ultra low-frequency ground penetrating radar

To reveal and delineate the relationship between the earth system and the metallogeny system

The airborne gravity vector and the large-depth airborne electrical prospecting method 3000 kW, 0.01–1200 Hz ultra low-frequency ground penetrating radar

The large-depth and high resolution gravity–magnetic–electrical–seismic combination survey technique and the 3D joint inversion techniques The geochemical techniques for acquiring mineralization information in depth, advanced drilling techniques and in-situ well survey techniques The breakthrough on the high efficiency and high precision prospecting techniques which are able to detect anomalous mineral information down to 2000 m underneath the surface in eastern China should be made

The breakthrough on the high efficiency and high precision prospecting techniques which are able to detect anomalous mineral information down to 2000 m underneath the surface in western China should be made

The techniques for prospecting mineral resources 3000–4000 m underneath the surface should be developed

The high-efficient and clean utilization of traditional ores The high-efficient and clean utilization of the paragenetic and associated ores The high-efficient and clean utilization of low grade ores and hard-to-be-processed ores The unit energy consumption decreases 20%, the unit quantity of discharged pollutant decreases 30%, the recovery rate at 50% and the comprehensive utilization rate at 45%

The unit energy consumption decreases 30%, the unit quantity of discharged pollutant decreases 50%, the recovery rate at 70% and the comprehensive utilization rate at 60%

The unit energy consumption decreases 50%, the unit quantity of discharged pollutant decreases 80%, the recovery rate at 80% and the comprehensive utilization rate at 80%

The large-scale recovering and re-utilization of the scrap metal materials The large-scale comprehensive utilization of powdered coal ash, coal gangue and tails To produce silicate fiber in large scale, high functional composite material, nanometer material and new type of ceramic material To produce potassic fertilizer from potassium-rich silicates The rate of substituting and cycle utilizing mineral resources at 20%–40%

2008

The rate of substituting and cycle utilizing mineral resources at 30%–50%

2020

The rate of substituting and cycle utilizing mineral resources at 40%–60%

2030

2050

Fig. 3.2 China’s S&T roadmap for the solid mineral resources to 2050

In terms of China’s S&T roadmap for oil and gas resources to 2050, it is necessary, based on a systematic understanding of the distinctive evolution of the complex tectonic background and the the superimposed basins in China, to deepen cognition to the enrichment features of oil and gas resources, to exploit the new domains and new strata, to develop technologies for resources distribution prediction, to enhance greatly oil and gas recovery, to break through a series of key technologies for exploration and production, and to develop advanced instruments and software technologies that we possess independent · 48 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The proved rate reaches to 50% for oil and to 30% for gas, the oil recovery will be enhanced to 40%

today

2025

Improving the theories of basin evolution and oil-gas reservoir formation, developing advanced geophysical instrument, realizing exploration and production on continental shelf and in deep marine basins, possessing efficient production technologies for unconventional oil and gas

The proved rate reaches to 60% for oil and to 50% for gas, the oil recovery will be enhanced to 50%

The proved rate reaches to 70% for oil and to 60% for gas, the oil recovery will be enhanced to 60%

2035 Establishing petroleum geology theories of formation of basin, hydrocarbon and reservoir in deep and ultra-deep marine basins, realize the drilling and production technologies in basin of deep and ultra-deep strata, enhancing greatly unconventional oil and gas recovery

2050 Increasing largely the substitution rate of unconventional oil and gas, performing fully oil and gas exploration and production on continental shelf and in deep and ultra-deep marine basins, enhancing greatly oil and gas recovery in deep basin strata

Fig. 3.3 China’s S&T roadmap for oil and gas resources to 2050

3.1.3 To Establish a System of Protection and Efficient Use of Water Resources within the Context of China’s S&T Roadmap for Water Resources to 2050 Based on a systematic understanding about water resources, water pollution, aquatic ecology, water-related disaster and water management, the current essentials include solving three basic scientific problems, achieving five breakthroughs in key technologies and constructing three synthetic platforms. The detailed schedule is: around 2020, the priorities are enhancing the water use efficiency, improving water quality and ensuring the safety of water supply. The basic scientific problem is the mechanism of compound pollution in river basin; the key technologies to be broken through are to address the issues of efficient 3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 49 ·

Roadmap 2050

intellectual properties. By around 2020, we will improve the theories of basin forming and evolution and oil-gas reservoir formation, create preliminarily the petroleum geology theory of oil-gas reservoir formation in China’s marine carbonate strata, develop advanced geophysical instruments available for complex surface topographies, structures and reservoirs, realize oil and gas exploration and production on continental shelf and in deep and ultra-deep marine basins, and possess efficient production technologies for unconventional gas. By around 2035, we will perfectly understand genetic types of basins and distributions of oil and gas in China, establish systematically petroleum geology theories in deep strata and fairly perfect theories of formation of basin, hydrocarbon and reservoir in deep and ultra-deep marine basins, master the drilling and production technologies in basin of deep and ultra-deep strata, enhance greatly unconventional oil and gas recovery. And by around 2050, we will perform fully oil and gas exploration and production on continental shelf and in deep and ultra-deep marine basins, enhance greatly oil and gas recovery in deep basin strata, participate in common exploration activities in arctic area and in other global public areas (Fig. 3.3).

Water disasters

Aquatic ecology

Water environment

Water resources

1. Research on key and basic problems 2. Innovation and breakthrough of technology 3. Systematic integration of current technology

Water management

Roadmap 2050

use and reuse of water resources, prevention and control of water eutrophication. Three synthetic platforms, including water quality monitoring and assessment, water disaster foresting and information system of water management, will be primarily constructed. Around 2030, the problems of ecological restoration in river basin will be satisfactorily resolved. The key technologies to be broken through are environmental flow regulating at river basin level and 1. Research on key and basic problems 2. Innovation and breakthrough of technology

Multi-technologies become mature and enter in a new phase of demonstration and application

Virtual water strategy and related measures and technology system

1. Evolution rules, maintaining mechanisms of renewability and integrated control of water resources within regions or river basins under a changing context Innovation and breakthrough in technology of underground water control and storage

2. Technology innovation of rainwater utilization and flood water use in urban area 3. Integration and application of technologies of water-saving, water exploitation and water allocation

Technology system of green water resources assessment, exploitation and integrative application

Technology innovation of industrial water saving and reuse

1. Characteristics, mechanism and trend of compound water pollution, non-point source pollution and ground water contamination in key areas

Technologies of assessment, utilization and quality secure for reclaimed water

Technologies of water functional regionalization, drinking water source area assessment and water reclamation

2. Characteristics, mechanism, and integrated remediation of water eutrophication

Environmental and ecological effects of different pollutants and its impact on human health

3. Integration and application of water pollution monitoring, detection and remediation

Technological innovation of water pollution remediation, waste water treatment and reclamation

1. Mechanisms of regional virtuous cycle of water and its functions on regional ecological security

Environmental and ecological effects of large hydraulic engineering

2. Quantitative assessment of ecological water demand and integrated water distribution technology

Innovation of technologies for environmental flow estimation and controls in rivers

3. Integration and application of technologies of water-soil conservation, ecological construction, hydraulic engineering and development-oriented poverty alleviation

Integrated technologies to maintain virtuous water cycle at river basin level Integrated technologies of ecological conservation in source areas of major rivers

Technologies of monitoring, assessment and conservation of river basin ecosystem and wetland ecosystem

Technological innovation of predicting and warning of flood and drought disasters

2. Technologies of adapting and control of flood and drought disasters under the changing climate

Technologies of preventing abrupt flood disaster in river basin

3. Integrated technology system of water disaster monitoring, assessment, forecasting and contingency response

Technologies of forecasting and integrated prevention of geology disasters related to water

Integrated technologies of adaptation and alleviation to the damage caused by climate change Early warning system and quickresponse supporting system of flood and drought disasters

Policies and measures during the transition from supply-based management to demand-based management

3. Information system of water resources analysis, simulation, management and control

Technological breakthrough in highperformance hydrological monitoring equipment and satellite remote sensing

2020

2030

Engineering technology and equipment in preventing geology disasters related to water High-performance hydrological monitoring equipment and simulation platform

Trend of water demand in different sectors under the climate change context

2. Integrated observing and monitoring platform of key elements and process in water cycle

2010

Technologies in monitoring, analysis and remediation of nonconventional pollution Technologies in monitoring, detecting and remediation of ground water pollution

1. Characteristics, mechanism and trend of flood and drought disasters caused by climate change

1. Innovative model of institution, policy and economic instruments in water demand management as well as its impacts evaluation

Cluster development of major technologies and its commercial promotion and popularization

Models and measures of integrated river basin management Refined and humanistic policies and measures of water management

2040

2050

Fig. 3.4 China’s S&T roadmap for water resources to 2050

· 50 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

3.2 The Green System of Advanced Materials and Intelligent Manufacturing The green system of advanced materials and intelligent manufacturing includes three parts: advanced materials, advanced manufacturing process, and green process. The overall objective is as follows: efforts should be made, within a period of 40 years, in the upgrading of manufacturing industries with intelligent and green characteristics; the low life-cycle cost design of materials and related applications considering all factors such as resources and the environment; the high-efficient clean use of energies and resources, and minimizing the impact on the environments; and the transformation from man-machine harmony to highly automated machine in manufacturing. In addition, the effective supply and high-efficient use of materials and facilities in the modernization process should be assured, and a resource-saving and environmental-friendly society be set up (Table 3.2). Table 3.2 Characteristics and objectives for China’s green system of advanced materials and intelligent manufacturing to 2050 Category

Advanced materials

By around 2020

By around 2030

By around 2050

Foreign-trade dependence ratio of fundamental raw materials lower than Materials quality 10%; self-sufficiency rate of high performance advanced materials reach to 60%

With world lead level of manufacturing fundamental raw materials; self-sufficiency rate of high performance advanced materials reach to 90%

Self-sufficiency rate of high performance advanced materials meets the requirement of the country

Basically realizing the design Materials design and control of functional materials characteristics

Realizing the multiscale design and control of main performance for structural materials

Realizing the precise design and control of materials structure, service properties and fabrication

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 51 ·

Roadmap 2050

comprehensive prevention and control of abrupt water disaster. Ultimately, the science and technology system based on demand management for water will be formed in China. Around 2050, the key scientific problem about the evolution rules of water cycling under global change context will be solved. Meanwhile, the key technologies of the remediation and ecological restoration of ground water contamination will be solved. The successful solutions to all these problems will finally result in a virtuous cycle of water. (Fig. 3.4)

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.2 (Continued) Category

Advanced materials

By around 2020

Realizing the accurate monitoring Extending the service of materials damage Materials service life of fundamental and self-repairing; life raw materials for extending the service 50% life of materials substantially

Constructing the designing and controlling system of materials based on life-cycle cost estimation

Renewable cyclic usage of materials

Cyclic usage of important fundamental materials reach to 30%

Cyclic usage of important fundamental materials reach to 50%

Manufacturing level

Dependence ratio of manufacturing technology on foreign countries <30%

Dependence ratio of manufacturing technology on foreign countries <20%

Dependence ratio of manufacturing technology on foreign countries <5%

High dependence of key and important equipment on import will basically be changed.

Research, development and production of key and important equipment will basically satisfy the domestic needs.

China will have the world top-class ability to design and manufacture key and important equipment.

The intelligent control and management system with manmachine harmony will be established.

Production system with intelligent machine and autonomous control will be implemented.

Automated manufacturing with ubiquitous sensing Manufacturing will be extensively intelligentization used to raise the productivity at 10% more.

· 52 ·

By around 2050

The recycling ratio of polymer materials reach to 40%–50%; using ratio of renewable materials reach to 10%

Equipment manufacturing Advanced manufacturing

Green process

By around 2030

Energy saving and carbon reduction

30% increase in energy saving and 20% reduction of carbon emission from manufacturing

50% increase in energy saving and Establishment of low50% reduction of carbon economical carbon emission from manufacturing system manufacturing

High-efficient and clean utilization of resources

30% decrease in raw material loss and 50% cyclic utilization of secondary resources

50% decrease in raw material loss and 70% cyclic utilization of secondary resources

90% decrease in raw material loss and 90% cyclic utilization of secondary resources

Environmental impact

Basic control of environmental pollution in manufacturing

Near zero hazardous waste release and basic control of environmental risk from chemicals

Zero hazardous waste release and neartotal elimination of environmental risk from chemicals

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Category

Green process

Green design of products

By around 2020

By around 2030

Establishment of green design standards for the whole process of major industrial Green design and products. Realization its application of of disassembly products and easy recycling of electricalmechanical products and automobiles

By around 2050

Propagation of whole process green design and cyclic utilization

Characteristic Indicators for Advanced Materials The quality of materials refers to the mechanical, physical, chemical, and processible properties of materials. It represents the capability of satisfying the requirement for usage in industries. Currently, China ranks the top in the production of many basic raw materials such as steel and cement, but its demand on high performance fundamental raw materials still relies on importation. For example, the amount of high quality steels with world levels are less than 20% in China. The service life of materials refers to the time cycle of materials from starting service to the degradation of properties, and finally to losing the value of usage. Nowadays, China hasn’t developed the concept of life-cycle cost of materials yet. There are not any measures to accurately detect and recover the long-term used materials. The cyclic renewable usage refers to the recycle, repair, refabrication of longterm used materials with the aim of reusing materials. The cyclic usage ratio of many basic raw materials in China is lower than that of developed countries. For example, cyclic usage ratio of aluminum in China is less than 30%, while the figure is over 50% in developed countries.

Characteristic Indicators for Advanced Manufacturing At present, the dependence ratio of manufacturing technology on foreign importation is about 50% in China; while it is below 30% in most developed countries. China now is the third largest manufacturer of machine tools in the world, but the key equipments rely highly on importation. Taking the numerical control (NC) machine tool as an example, the production volume of NC machine tools in China has increased by nearly 200 times since the reform and opening up policy in 1978. Homemade NC machine tools hold a half of the domestic market in China, however, almost all the high performance NC machine tools are imported.

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 53 ·

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.2 (Continued)

Roadmap 2050

Manufacturing intelligentization is an emerging manufacturing technology and manufacturing (management) system which integrates such technologies as traditional manufacturing, computers and artificial intelligence together. Nowadays, world manufacturing intelligentization technology develops very fast. Related research has been carried out in China, and some technologies have been put into practice or operation in domestic enterprises.

Characteristic Indicators for Green Process Energy saving and carbon reduction: the total energy consumption of China’s manufacturing process per product of main industries is about 20%–60% higher than that of the developed countries. The green process of high-efficient and cleaner utilization of recourses refers to a sustainable utilization mode of resources (minerals, oil, natural gas, and biomass) processed with high-efficient utilization of raw materials, low-energy consumption, and less waste discharges. Currently, the utilization efficiency of raw materials and secondary resources in China is at a relatively low level when compared globally. For example, the utilization efficiency of complex paragenetic and associated mineral resources only reaches to 30% in China, but 60% in developed countries; the recycling utilization efficiency of secondary metal resources is below 30%, but above 60% in developed countries; and the yearly discharge of industrial wastes is more than 100 million tons. Environmental impact refers to the effect of manufacturing process on the environment and the consequent environmental changes. At present, the amount of industrial waste discharge from metallurgical, chemical, and other industries in China is more than 100 million tons per year. The waste water discharge per GDP is four times higher than that of developed countries. And chemical risk from toxic waste is in a serious situation. Consequently, the sustainable socio-economic development of the country has already been seriously restricted by the environmental problems caused by manufacturing industries. Green design of product emphasizes the environmental impact of the product, seeking a minimal environmental influence during the whole life cycle of the product that includes manufacturing, utilizing, and recycling. This designing strategy takes full consideration of the environmental property of the product, which is expected to have minimum or no harm to human beings. Research regarding green product design has already been carried out for many years abroad, yet it is still at the initial stage in China. In this regard, the research and development should be expedited.

As such, it is necessary to carry out China’s S&T roadmap for advanced materials to 2050, and China’s S&T roadmap for intelligent manufacturing and green process to 2050. In terms of China’s S&T roadmap for advanced materials to 2050, breakthroughs should be made in the following six scientific areas: the upgrade of conventional materials design and the R&D of new materials; green · 54 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 55 ·

Roadmap 2050

processing and manufacturing of materials; the precise design and control of materials structure and service performance; the high-efficient cyclic usage of materials; the integration of materials structural and functional properties; and the analyzing and characterization of materials. By advancing in the above areas, the purpose is to form the systems of materials life-cycle low cost design and related application which consider both the energy and environments. The concrete steps are as follows: by around 2020, the relationship between multi-scale structures and properties, and the evolution law and mechanism of structures and properties in the cyclic reusing of materials should be revealed. Breakthroughs should be made in the following areas: the upgrading of conventional materials properties, energy saving manufacturing and low pollution fabrication technologies of high performance fundamental materials, continuous processing technologies of materials for near-net-shape forming of components, manufacturing technologies of giant and super-giant structural components, fundamental databases of materials properties and expert information systems, manufacturing technologies of low cost but highperformance composite materials, the measurement techniques of materials physical and chemical properties under extreme conditions, and accurate real time macro-analysis technologies. By around 2030, materials structureperformance relationship under extreme conditions should be clarified. The evaluation of materials failure process and prediction of materials service life be achieved. Breakthroughs should be made in the following areas: manufacturing and processing technologies of materials at extreme conditions, materials intelligent manufacturing and processing technologies, technologies of reusing waste materials with low-cost and high value, self-assembly of components and related design methods, integrated design of materials with combined functional properties and structural properties, and real time monitoring and controlling technologies during manufacturing. And the engineering application of new energy, information & biology materials, nano-materials and their structures should be realized. By around 2050, the accurate design & control and the related ecological design of materials structure properties and service properties should be accomplished. Breakthroughs should be made in the following areas: fabrication technologies of materials at molecular or atomic scale, real time macro-analysis and characterization technologies, and self-diagnosis and selfrepair technologies of materials and their structures. The application of low cost intelligent materials, bio-mimetic materials, and environmental-friendly materials should be realized (Fig. 3.5). In terms of China’s S&T roadmap for intelligent manufacturing and green process to 2050, two central scientific problems that need to be solved emphatically are efficient material conversion and engineering scale-up, the massive manufacturing information processing mode and intelligent manufacturing method; while four key technologies that need to be broken through are high-efficient and cleaner utilization of resources, the design for green products, the design and manufacturing for important technical

Upgrading of conventional materials and the R&D of new materials

2020

2030

2050

Aim

Green manufacturing technologies of fabricating high performance raw materials

The development of advanced materials can satisfy the requirement of high technologies, renewable energy and resources, and environment protection

Upgrading of conventional materials Energy saving manufacturing process of low pollution Nano-materials New energy, information and biology materials

New manufacturing and processing technologies of materials

Low cost biomimetic materials Continuous processing technologies of materials for near-net-shape forming of components Manufacturing technologies of giant and super-giant structural components Manufacturing and processing technologies of materials under extreme conditions Materials intelligent manufacturing and processing technologies

Various manufacturing and machining technologies for advanced materials can be widely used, and the low cost intelligent and green fabrication can be realized

Fabrication technologies of materials at molecular or atomic scale

Prediction, design and control of materials service behavior

Fundamental database of materials properties and expert information systems Relation between multi-scale structures and properties

The accurate design and control of materials structure, service behavior, and manufacturing can be realized

Evaluation of materials failure process and prediction of materials service life The material structure-behavior relationship under extreme conditions The technology of accurate design and control of materials structure and service behavior

Materials high efficient cyclic usage technologies

The structures and properties evolution in materials cyclic usage and related control technologies Technologies of reusing waste materials with low-cost and high value Wastes recycling technologies Materials and structures with self-diagnosis and self-repair characteristics

The cyclic usage ratio of important fundamental materials will reach 50%; the systems of materials life-cycle low cost design and related application can be established

Technologies integrating both materials structural and functional properties

Environmental-friendly materials and ecological design

Analyzing and testing technologies for materials properties and structures

Roadmap 2050

2008

Low cost high performance composites

Multi-scale integrated materials/composites of high intelligence and biomimetic materials will become one of the leading materials

Self-assembly of components and related design methods Integrated design of materials with combined functional properties and structural properties Multi-scale integrated materials/composites of high intelligence Measurement technologies of materials physical and chemical properties at extreme conditions Accurate real time macro-analysis technologies Real time monitoring and controlling technologies during manufacturing Real time in-situ analysis and characterization technologies

More and more new scientific achievements will be used in the analyzing, testing and evaluating of materials; real time macro-analysis and characterization technologies will be realized

Fig. 3.5 China’s S&T roadmap for advanced materials and related technologies to 2050

· 56 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Important equipments Information manufacturing

Intelligent manufacturing

Direction and demands

2020

2030

The situation of heavy dependency on import for important equipment is largely changed Development and manufacture of important equipments can basically meet the demands

Information sensing technology for products and manufacturing environments Man-machine harmonious system Autonomous control technology of manufacturing system

High-efficient and cleaner utilization of resources

High-efficient green catalysis Industrial ecosystem integration Recycle utilization of secondary resources and pollution control technology High-value utilization technology of biomass Poly-generation bio-refinery technique Low-cost technologies for CO2 separation and recovery

Green product design and discrete manufacturing industry

Aim

China’s demands on important equipment are met and the quality of equipment achieves world level

World first-class important equipment and manufacturing capability can be possessed

New reaction-medium substitution technology

Green process

2050

Demountable and easy recovery technique for electromechanical, electronic, car and so on Green design and evaluation method for products Re-manufacturing and non-waste machining technology Integration of artery and vein green industry chain technology

The transition of manufacturing system from manmachine harmonious system to autonomous control is realized Loss of raw material decreases by 90%; unit product energy saving reaches 50%; chemical risks are eliminated; zero emission of waste is realized; recycling utilization rate of secondary resources reaches 90%. Green process systems of high-efficiency, cleaner and recycling utilization for resources are established

80% of raw materials and components can be generally recovered; energy is remarkably saved; production systems that integrate artery and vein industry are formed

Fig. 3.6 China’s S&T roadmap for intelligent manufacturing and green process to 2050

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 57 ·

Roadmap 2050

equipments and the intelligent control, in order to promote the commercial application of related technologies. The concrete steps are as follows: by around 2020, the multi-scale mechanism of material conversion and the principle for engineering scaleup will be revealed; the substitution technology of novel reaction medium, the high-efficient green catalysis technology, the resource recycling and process environmental technology, the process quantification and amplification and integration technology for eco-industry and circular economy system, and the demountable and easy-recovery technology for electromechanical, electronic and automobile products, will be emphatically broken through. The advanced

Roadmap 2050

equipment for process intensification and reaction-separation should be developed. Breakthroughs should be made in the predictable maintenance technology for the key and important equipment and the information sensing technology for products and manufacturing environments. By around 2030, the green design and evaluation method of products will be established; breakthroughs should be made in the technologies for the recycling utilization of secondary resources and the pollution control of mass waste, and highvalue utilization for biomass. Product reliability design will be improved, key technologies for co-adaptation between man and machine will be broken through, and the man-machine harmonious system with man as the decision kernel will be established. And by around 2050, the method system for resource multilevel recycling and optimum utilization will be constructed; the green design and life-cycle assessment of products should be widely used. The polygeneration bio-refinery technology, the low-cost technologies for CO 2 separation and recovery, the non-waste machining technology for discrete manufacturing industry, and the integration of green artery and vein industry chain technology will be broken through; the advanced technical system suitable for recycling society and low-carbon economy will be formed. Breakthroughs will be made in the autonomous control technology and the intelligent manufacturing technology will come into being (Fig. 3.6).

3.3 The System of Ubiquitous Information Networking The system of ubiquitous information networking mainly includes universalization of information technology, network capacity and information service capability. Its overall objective is to lead China into an information society with over 40 years’ efforts, making China’s information science and technology closer to those of developed countries at the time (Table 3.3). Table 3.3 Characteristics and objectives for China’s ubiquitous information network system to 2050 Category

Terminal Penetration of information technology Network

· 58 ·

By around 2020

By around 2030

Over 500 million Ubiquitous terminals computers including penetration > 80% over 50% new terminals

Over 600 million Internet users (300 million rural users)

1 billion network users; sensor network widely used in both urban and rural areas

By around 2050 Every citizen owns an information terminal, and every on-line device becomes an information terminal Information network is widely used like the electric power; digital divide to be eliminated

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Category

Wired network

Network capacity

Wireless network

Sensor network

Server-side resources

Capability Online of content information services

By around 2020

By around 2030

By around 2050

Local area network bandwidth > 100 Gbps; user access rate to 1 Gbps

Bandwidth on demand; Post-IP Internet work practical and secure built; metropolitan globally communications quantum secure network based on communication system quantum cryptography

User bandwidth > 100 Mb/s, Mobile Internet booming

Distributed and ad hoc Communication wireless communication integration of air, space, systems with perceptual surface, and sea and cognitive capability

Widely applied in logistics, medical care, environmental protection, disaster prevention etc.

Hundreds of billions of Ubiquitous sensor “dust” sensor terminals

Ubiquitous expertise 85 million domain network services; names, 14 million web Abundant information sites; 60 million servers service resources

Personalized, intelligent information services being the mainstream

Online Chinese 330 billion Chinese web information > 10% pages of worldwide online information

1 TB/person individulized online information

15 trillion annual Scale and revenue in information quality of industry; innovation information capability significantly industry enhanced

Controllable information technology platform established; Data and knowledge information industry industry becomes a pillar with zero growth in industry energy consumption and emissions

Characteristic Indicators for China’s Information Technology Universalization Universalization of terminal devices. An information system mainly consists of servers (for information processing and storage) and the devices directly used by end users. The latter are called terminal devices. Historically, information terminals evolved from character terminal, graphic terminal to network terminal. Network terminal generally refers to all the man-machine interaction units that can access network, including personal computers, mobile phones, network television sets and personal digital assistants. Terminal universalization can be calculated based on families, such as the number of computers possessed per 100 families, etc. The statistics of the terminal universalization in this report is based on per capita possession. According to China Statistics Yearbook 2007, the number of computers per 100 urban families reached to 53.8, while per 100 rural families

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 59 ·

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.3(Continued)

Roadmap 2050

reached to 3.7. There was a huge digital gap. According to the statistics given by the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information, there were 634 million mobile phone users in China by November, 2008. In other words, the total universalization of mobile phones reached to 47.3% per capita. CNNIC reported that, by the end of 2008, the total number of mobile phone end users accessing the Internet had exceeded 117.6 million. Network universalization. Network universalization indicates the number of network end users among the total population. It often coincides with Internet penetration. It is one of the important indicators showing the information utilization level of a country or region. By the end of 2008, China’s network universalization reached to 22.6%, a little more than the world average (21.9%), according to the statistics by CNNIC. Nevertheless, this number is far less than that of the developed countries (70%). By the end of 2008, there were totally 298 million network end users (including 84.60 million rural residents), 270 million of whom were broadband network end users, and 13.572 million CN domain names throughout the country. The above three indicators rank the first in the world.

Characteristic Indicators for China’s Network Capacity Wired network. Wired network refers to those that are connected by twistedpairs, coaxial cables and fiber-optic cables, such as computer networks, cableTV networks and land telephones. The Internet is the world’s largest wired network. The total bandwidth of China’s Internet international exit is 640 Gbps, serving 90% of the total end-users who access the Internet through xDSL, Cable Modem, optical fiber broadband, etc. However, the actual access speed for an individual end user is often less than 200 Kbps, much slower than that in developed countries. The most popular wired network is the cable-TV network, which serves over 160 million end-users. Therefore, an important measure in China’s information progress is to promote the convergence of the three networks of telephones, TV cables, and the Internet. Wireless network. Wireless networks utilize radio wave as media for information transmission. They offer mobility and flexibility to users, and include mobile telecommunication network, computer wireless-access network, radio network, etc. International trends are broadband wireless access, redistribution of radio frequencies, and the convergence of computer, telecommunication, radio/TV networks. China’s mobile telecommunication network (cellular phone network) has the largest user base in the world. It mainly uses the GSM standard (2G) with 25 Mhz bandwidth and 200 KHz carrier frequency interval. The actual access speed of mobile phones on this network is often less than 100 Kbps. China is introducing 3G into the mobile telecommunication network. There are three international standards of 3G, namely WCDMA, CDMA2000 and TD-SCDMA. The TD-SCDMA standard effort was initiated by China, and the TD-SCDMA based 3G network is now under construction by China Mobile Corp. China’s computer wireless access networks are mainly based on the WiFi and WiMax standards. Sensor network. A sensor network consists of randomly distributed sensor terminals, base stations and information monitoring centers. Sensor networks are an important part of future networks, with standardization process already initiated

· 60 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Characteristic Indicators for China’s Information Service Capability Server-side resources. The amounts of domain names, web sites and servers within a country reflect in some respect the network service capability of the country. By the end of 2008, China has a total of 16.82 million domain names, 288,000 web sites and 677,500 PC servers. China is among the world leaders in high performance computer R&D, with Dawning superservers twice ranking top 10 worldwide. However, China’s total server installations, especially per capita server resources, fall far behind international levels. Web contents. Web contents are usually read in web page format, but many more web contents (called deep Web) cannot be accessed by commonly used browsers. By the end of 2008, domestic web pages totaled over 160 million, a 90% increase over 2007. With the spread of Web 2.0 technology, the number of personal web sites grew rapidly in recent years. There were 162 million Chinese blog writers by the end of 2008. Scale and quality of China’s information industry. Electronic information industry has already become one of China’s backbone industries, with its revenue increasing to 5.6 trillion Yuan in 2007, including 1.3 trillion Yuan added value, and 728 billion Yuan from telecommunication service income. According to the National 11th Five-Year Plan for Information Industry Development, information industry is expected to contribute to the GDP by 10% in 2010, with annual revenue reaching to 10 trillion Yuan (including 886 billion Yuan from telecommunication service) and the added value reaching to 2.6 trillion Yuan. To sum up, though China’s information industry is large on scale, it is not strong in quality. It is still weak in innovation and sits downstream of the industry value chain.

In terms of China’s S&T roadmap for information science and technology to 2050, to develop ubiquitous information science and technology and to construct ubiquitous information network, we should plan and carry out work focusing on the following four aspects: universal applications of information technology; upgrades of network and information infrastructure; transformative breakthroughs of information devices, equipment and software; and the establishment of new information science and frontier cross-discipline sciences (Fig. 3.7).

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 61 ·

Roadmap 2050

abroad. China started setting up small-scale sensor networks in the fields of military, public security, environmental monitoring, life and health, and industrial control, and has achieved some initial application results.

Ubiquitous and universal applications of information technology Network and information infrastructure upgrade Innovative breakthrough of information devices, equipments and software Development of new information science and frontier cross-disciplines

Roadmap 2050

Progress of informatization

Network services

To construct the network service architecture and methodology

Internet

Transition from IPv4 to IPv6 in next generation Internet

Sensor network

Cyber Physical Systems

Wireless communication/optical communication

To transit to u-society

e-society

Network service systems for sustainable development

Transition to post-IP future network

Trillions of sensors on the network

Packet switching pure-optical network

4G wireless communication LTE

Network penetration>80%

“Post IP” network architecture; establish energy-saving and trustworthy information infrastructure

Ubiquitous sensor “dust”

Cognitive and ad hoc wireless communication

supercomputing

Exascale supercomputing Personal HPC

Zettascale supercomputing; large-scale optical computing

Microelectronics and new devices

3D devices, 22–11, Nanometer CMOS devices

Continual process of SoC, SiP; Nanometer, self-spin devices

Photonic devices, Molecular devices

Photoelectric and photonic devices

Photonic NoC (Network on Chip)

Integrated photoelectric simulation

Information carrier to be converted to photon

Yottascale supercomputing; universal use of supercomputing

Quantum computing platform, quantum secure communication in urban area

Quantum mini-computers

General quantum computer, Global purpose quantum secure communication

Storage devices

Semiconductor storage to replace disk

Optical far-field/near-field superresolution storage technology

Atom-scale storage

Network sciences

Discovery and analysis of network laws and mechanisms

Formation of cross-disciplines on network

Network sciences to mature

Algorithm and software

Distributed interactive algorithm industrial software design

Network algorithm and algorithm interaction; trusted Computing System

Universalization of Computational thinking

Intelligence and cognition

Natural humancomputer interface

Semantic understanding and emotional understanding

Breakthrough in brain and cognitive sciences, Emergence of new information science

Bioinformatics

Rudimentary biological simulator; Protein structure prediction

Genome sequencing of tens of millions of people; database of human genome variances

Accurate computing of biological phenomena

Social computing

To construct “parallel society”system

Computation of social experiment and decision support

Normalization of social computing

Quantum information

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Fig. 3.7 China’s S&T roadmap for information science and technology to 2050

· 62 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

3.4 The System of Ecological and High-value Agriculture and Biological Industry The system of ecological and high-value agriculture and biological industry includes the following four major components: ensuring food and agricultural safety, sustainable agriculture, intelligent agriculture, and high-value agriculture. The overall objective is to meet the rising demand for total quantity, quality, safety and multi-functions of agricultural goods and services. Though 40 years’ efforts, food and agricultural product quality, food safety, food nutrition and functions will be substantially improved; agriculture will be modernized via IT, digitization and precise technologies; and high-value, ecological, multi-functional and sustainable agriculture will be established. (Table 3.4) 3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 63 ·

Roadmap 2050

By around 2020, technology breakthroughs should be achieved in designing low-cost devices and system, in new perception mechanisms for the physical world, and in semantic retrieval and analysis. Scalable, trustworthy next generation Internet and self-organizing wireless sensor networks, and networks convergence should be promoted. Through advancing microelectronic technology and new information devices via the three paths of evolving, expanding and overleaping Moore’s law, breakthroughs should be made in multicore chips, on-chip optical Internets and large scale optical computing, and exascale supercomputing; progresses will be made in advanced network science, theory of algorithm for distributed interactive simulation, largescale industrial software, natural man-machine interface, protein structure prediction, and parallel society systems. By around 2035, breakthroughs should be made in network information theory, network algorithm theory, and network computing models. Sustainable network service systems, with the design of lowenergy-consumption chips and systems, practical knowledge ontologies and knowledge grids should be established. Post-IP Internet systems, perceptive and cognitive wireless communication systems, and fully optical packetswitching networks should be built. Transformative breakthroughs should be made in quantum and nanometer devices and circuits to realize zettascale supercomputing and reduce software development cost by 50% every two years, and in trustworthy computing systems, emotion understanding technology, and a database of human genome variances be built. By around 2050, pervasive information science should be established to enable computational thinking to become a basic way of thinking in natural, artificial and social systems. Sustainable computing infrastructure and application service should be set up. Following the computing-networking convergence and computing-physical system convergence, major breakthroughs should be made in brain science and cognition science to realize computing-intelligence fusion, and eventually result in a mature information science.

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.4 Characteristics and objectives of China’s ecological and high-value agriculture and biological industry to 2050 Category

By around 2020

By around 2050

Quantity

More than 95% of grain self-sufficient rate; near self-sufficiency of other food and agricultural products

60% increase in per capita availability of meat, egg and dairy products

Double per capita availability of meat, egg and dairy products

Quality

80–100 varieties with high nutrition and unique health promotion functions will be developed; the pollution occurred during production and processing will be under control completely

The ratio of agricultural products with high nutrition and health promotion functions will be increased more than 20%

The agricultural products with high quality, high nutrition and health promotion function will be increased more than 50%

Ecological agriculture pattern

Setting up the different regional pattern with reasonable structure and stable function

Achieving the sustainable Optimizing the ecosystem and positive recycle structure within the main in the agriculture agricultural areas ecosystems

Clean production

Appropriate use of chemical fertilizer and pesticides; starting application of degradable agricultural films

Reducing chemical fertilizer and pesticide uses by 10%–15%; large application of degradable agricultural films

The share of multifunctional, safety, and high efficiency fertilizers will reach 30%; share of biological pesticides will also reach 30%

Utilization efficiency of soil, fertilizer, water and light

To increase light utilization efficiency of rice and wheat to 1.2%; to realize comprehensive utilization efficiency of soil, fertilizer and water 10% higher than that at present

To increase light utilization efficiency of rice and wheat to 1.5%; to realize comprehensive utilization efficiency of soil, fertilizer and water 20% higher than that at present

To increase light utilization efficiency of rice and wheat to 2%; to realize comprehensive utilization efficiency of soil, fertilizer and water 30% higher than that at present

Integrated production and marketing service system

To cover all counties

To cover every To cover all rural villages production and marketing unit

Food safety

Sustainable agriculture

To realize remote sensing evaluation of China and National-wide global yield, and predict monitoring and agricultural hazards evaluation systems in China by national for agro-resources observing and monitoring and production systems, and to establish databases of nationalwide agro-resources Intelligent agriculture

Precision agriculture

· 64 ·

By around 2030

Precision management is applied in 90% of large greenhouses, and 50% of large farms of poultry, livestock and fishery. Precision farming is practiced in 20% of farmlands of state farms in Northeast China and Xinjiang, and demonstrated in HuangHuai-Hai Plain and the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River

To realize remote sensing evaluation of main crop qualities in China, and on-line observing and monitoring of agroresources (water, soil, forestry and grassland) and agro-hazards

To realize on-line monitoring and real-time prediction of nationalwide agro-resources and specific items of global agro-resources.

Precision management is applied in 80% of large farms of poultry, livestock and fishery. Precision farming is practiced in 40% of farmlands of state farms in Northeast China and Xinjiang, and 20% of farmlands in HuangHuai-Hai Plain and the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and demonstrated in other regions.

All large farms of poultry, livestock and fishery realize precision management. Precision farming is practiced in 70% of farmlands of state farms in Northeast China and Xinjiang, and 40% of farmlands in HuangHuai-Hai Plain and the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and 20% of farmlands in other regions

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Category

High-value agriculture

By around 2030

By around 2050

Realization of specific character improvement and of 30% of new varieties has been modified through genetic and molecular enhancement

Creation of “intelligent variety” through molecular design

Molecular design breeding

Establishment of technique system for molecular breeding that is able to improve multiple traits; the number of molecular breeding variety will be increased by ten-fold

Agro-biomass resources

To develop 50–100 new bio-energy varieties and germplasms; produce 20 million tons of ethanol and bio-diesel p.a.

To form a group of To produce 100 million industries related with tons of ethanol and bioagro-biomass; produce diesel p.a. 50 million tons of ethanol and bio-diesel p.a.

The R&D system of high value-added products from bio-based materials will be established.

Industries of nutritious and health promotional products, natural cosmetics and enzymes will be developed

Industrial system for high-value-added conversion of agricultural products will be formed

Full scale of service agricultural sector in major suburb of large and middle size cities

Form scenic, multifunctional and ruralurban integrated service agriculture system

High-value conversion of agricultural products

By around 2020

Initial stage of agriculture system that services for Service agriculture tour, education, culture, etc.

Characteristic Indicators for the Security and Safety of Agricultural Products At present, China has almost reached self-sufficiency in grain production. And the total volume of imports and that of exports for other agricultural products remain virtually balanced. In general, agriculture is based on natural plants and animals that contain natural components, lack of artificial designed breeds containing higher nutritional or functional components, such as high concentration of proteins, high unsaturated fatty acids, and high concentration of vitamins; and lack of special breeds that can protect heart disease, diabetes, anemia disease and ageing. In addition, the process of food production is often contaminated.

Characteristic Indicators for Sustainable Agriculture The ecological agriculture pattern refers to the use of ecological principle to build integrative agricultural production systems with modern science and technology, modern equipment and modern management. The objective is to improve the soil fertility and productivity continually, to coordinate ecological environment protection and resources use, and to achieve high production, high quality, high efficiency and low energy consumption. It mainly includes three kinds of patterns: 1) the good recycling and multistage use pattern which develops from the food chain principle; 2) the reasonable spatial-temporal disposition pattern which develops according to the biotic community succession principle; 3) the regulating and control agricultural pattern according to the ecological economics principles.

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 65 ·

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.4(Continued)

Roadmap 2050

At present, the ecological agriculture of China is still in its initial stage, and has not yet become the main development pattern of rural areas. Furthermore, there are different patterns with the disadvantages of small scale, high labor input, and low level of the industrial production and incomplete technical system. At present, the excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in China is mounting to above 20%. The degradable plastics are in the course of development. The light utility efficiency of rice and wheat is only 1%. The comprehensive utilization efficiency of soil, fertilizer and water is still very low.

Characteristic Indicators for Intelligent Agriculture Some information agriculture programs are available throughout the country, such as field crop yield evaluation and drought monitoring by remote sensing in main agricultural regions, monitoring of the situation of disasters of flooding and snow, and fertilizer recommendation by soil testing. Precision agriculture is demonstrated in main agricultural regions.

Characteristic Indicators for High-value Agriculture Molecular design breeding is a technique for improving complex traits according to preset standards and targets. Based on the understanding of functionality of key genes or quantitative trait locus (QTL), this technique is to create elite germplasm resources as breeding components by integrating approaches like molecular marker assisted selection, whole genome targeted mutagenesis and safe transgenic techniques. Currently, it is possible to transfer a few targeted genes into crop species to improve separate traits and to trace down through molecular markers in this country. Only few varieties obtained by molecular breeding have been released and most of them are in the process of test and verification. “Intelligent variety” individuals are able to respond to environment factors changes and to temporally and spatially regulate their gene expression, translation and modification on whole genome scale. They are also able to regulate or even alter their metabolic pathways to adapt to the environment changes so as to maintain their best growth and developmental status. The goal is to create varieties that will meet human needs with high efficiency in an environmental-friendly manner. Agro-biomass resources. The researches on agro-biomass resources are still at the stage of investigating the distribution of key agro-biomass resources, screening and developing agro-biomass resources and exploiting related processing technologies and equipment. High-value conversion of agricultural products is the R&D process of obtaining high-value-added products using the bio-based products with special components as raw materials through industrial processing. Presently, we just have some simple techniques for processing animal and plant products, but lack the technological system and high-value products. The service agricultural sector is developing in most suburban areas of large and middle sized cities in China.

· 66 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Science & technology of agriculture with modernization and intelligentization

Science & technology of agriculture production and food safety

Agriculture science and technology based on resource saving

Animal germplasm and modern breeding

Plant germplasm resources & modern breeding

2020

2030

2050

Variety with multifunctions — > Molecular design variety — > Intelligent variety Gene and germplasm resources Conventional breeding techniques; molecular marker techniques; safe gene transfer techniques

Molecular design breeding techniques

Whole genome optimization and assembly techniques

New Varieties of pig, cattle, sheep , chicken ,fish, shrimp and shellfish with quick growth, high protein content, high meat yield, high feed transformation or resistance to diseases Cell and molecular technology of Germplasm evaluation, discovery, conservation and application of domestic animals Marker assistant breeding molecular design on disease resistance

Sex control multifunction molecular design breeding

Multifunction molecular design breeding intelligent molecular design breeding

Establishment of agriculture saving land, water and energy Land-saving technology Water-saving technology Energy-saving technology

Large-scale land management system; water-saving society at river basin level; nutrient-saving and effective agro-system; stereo ecological agriculture system

Use of environmental-friendly varieties, creation of nutritional food with intelligent personality, development of functional food with personality, step up a stable agricultural eco-system Standardization system of safe food production Safety Control technology of disease and pest

Development of functional, safe and health food with high value Prediction and precision control

Specific and intelligent manage system of safety Networking of agro-information services, digitization of agro-resources management, precision management of agricultural production, intelligentization of agricultural machines and equipments Networking technology for agro-information services Digitization technology for agro-resources management Precision management technology for agricultural production Intelligentization technology for agricultural machines and equipments

Fig. 3.8 China’s S&T roadmap for agriculture and biological industry to 2050

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 67 ·

Roadmap 2050

In terms of China’s S&T roadmap for agriculture and biological industry to 2050, it will focus on the following aspects: plant germplasm and modern breeding, animal germplasm and modern breeding, resource-saving agriculture, agricultural production and food safety, and intelligent agriculture. The purpose is to solve important and key S&T problems and to carry out experiment, demonstration and application. The concrete steps are as follows: by around 2020, the animal and plant ecological communities as well as the data sharing platform for germplasm resources, particularly special germplasm, should be established in order to facilitate the utilization of germplasm resources of special value and safe transgenic technology and to further develop molecular marker techniques; the early warning and monitoring network of flora, fauna and arable land should be set up to improve the key techniques of resource-saving and high efficiency,

Roadmap 2050

including soil fertility improving technology, water and fertilizer management and new fertilizer use; and the multi-functional information network for agriculture should be available anywhere in the rural areas. By around 2030, the distribution and germplasm resources of flora and fauna should be mapped out across the country, and the breakthroughs should be made in the areas of molecular design breeding technology as well as animal cloning technology. The dynamic warning model and intelligent control system for animal and plant diseases should be set up. Breakthroughs should also be made in key technologies for the production of environmental-friendly and multi-functional animal and plant products. In major agricultural regions, information networking service and digital operation should be achieved for precise and intelligent management. And by around 2050, the overlapping and interaction of molecular breeding techniques and bioinformatics on genome scale will help the optimized assembly of individual genomes for a certain population, facilitate the use of animal and plant functional genes of special value, and assist to create new “intelligent variety” that can quickly respond to environmental changes (Fig. 3.8).

3.5 The Generally Applicable Health Assurance System The generally applicable health assurance system must have the following characteristics: a focus on prevention and control of major chronic diseases, a transition away from therapy-oriented medicine to a medical system based on predictive intervention, and a transition from using single biomedicine to an approach that integrates biology, environment, psychology and society. This type of world-class scientific assurance system will provide biological safety and food safety as well as promote healthy lifestyles. It will include the establishment of a protection system to deal effectively with sudden public health incidents and biological safety issues, and will have securing the physical and mental health of the whole population as its goal. Other goals include creating a large-scale pharmaceutical R&D chain to develop innovative medicines and manufacture sophisticated medical equipment, thereby improving the international competitiveness of China’s biomedical industry, and making China a strong power in the biomedical industry (Table 3.5).

· 68 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Category

Population control and reproductive health

Prevention and cure of major chronic diseases

By around 2020

By around 2030

By around 2050

Life expectancy

75

80

85

Birth defect rate

Below 4%

Below 2%

Below 1%

Population scale (billion)

Around 1.43

Around 1.54

Around 1.5

Method

Therapy-oriented medicine

Active prevention

Health management

Effect

Dramatically increasing early diagnosis rate and reducing death and disability rate

Markedly reducing the rate of occurrence and limiting the progression of disease

Markedly delaying the age of onset of major chronic diseases

Recurrent infectious diseases

Effectively containing recurrent infectious diseases in the Chinese population

Markedly reducing the occurrence, development and negative impact of recurrent infectious diseases

Eliminating known recurrent infectious diseases

Emerging diseases

Establishing a supervision and quick-response system for bird flu and other diseases

Establishing a rapid recognition and control system for emerging diseases

Establishing a defense system for active control of the occurrence and propagation of emerging diseases

Nutrition

Eliminating malnutrition and improving nutrition infrastructure

Establishing nutritional standards for the Chinese population and providing new types of functional foods

Popularizing scientific nutrition methods

Food safety

Establishing a highly effective and accurate food safety supervision system

Implementing safety management throughout the food production process

Implementing safety management throughout the food consumption cycle

Biomedicine

Satisfying the public demand for cheap basic medicines and developing major innovative medicines

Realizing the practical applications of tissue and organ regeneration and carrying out the modernization of traditional Chinese medicines

The biomedical industry becomes strongly competitive in the international market

Medical equipment

Transition from our reliance on importation of high-end medical equipment

Develop independent R&D capacity for developing high-end medical equipment

Satisfying domestic demand for high-end medical equipment

Infectious disease and bio-safety

Nutrition and food safety

Biomedical industry

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 69 ·

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.5 Characteristics and objectives for China’s generally applicable health assurance system to 2050

Roadmap 2050

Characteristic Indicators for Population Control and Reproductive Health According to the 2007 Statistical Bulletin on the National Economy and Social Development of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total population of the China was 1.32129 billion at the end of 2007. As shown in the 2008 World Health Statistical Report, the life expectancies in 2006 for the male and female populations of China were 72 and 73 respectively. Birth defects, commonly named “congenital malformations”, refer to developmental abnormalities occurring in the mother’s uterus, and malformation of parts of the body occurring before an infant’s birth. Some defects like cleft lip, missing hands or feet and hyperdactyly are referred to as malformations, which are apparent when the infant is born. Some abnormalities, like mental retardation, Down’s syndrome and progressive muscular dystrophy may not be visible at birth, but become apparent as the child develops. The infant birth defect rate refers to the proportion of the number of infants with birth defects among the total number of infants born in a country (or a region) in a certain year. As reported in China’s Action Plan for Improving Infant Quality and Reducing Birth Defects and Disabilities (2002–2010), the birth defect rate is about 4%–6% in China, and around 200,000–300,000 infants are born with congenital malformations every year. When combined with the number of infants whose defects only become apparent after months or even years, the total number of infants with birth defects may be as high as 800,000–1,000,000 every year.

Characteristic Indicators for Prevention and Cure of Major Chronic Diseases As stated in the WHO’s report Prevention of Chronic Diseases – A Vital Investment in 2006, the number of people who die of chronic diseases already made up 60% of the total number of deaths. Moreover, this figure is set to increase rapidly, by about 17% in the coming 10 years. The economic costs associated with chronic diseases are significant. The loss of national income caused by early death due to heart disease, stroke and diabetes in China is estimated to reach 558 billion US Dollars in the coming 10 years. According to the Chronic Disease Report of China published in 2006 by the Disease Prevention and Control Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of Health and Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, chronic diseases have become the major cause of death among both urban and rural populations in China, with a death rate of 85.3% and 79.5% respectively, while 60% is typical in many poor counties. During the period from 1992 to 2002, the number of people who are overweight or obese increased by 100 million in China, with an increase in the numbers of overweight and obese adults above 18 years of age reaching to 40.7% and 97.2% respectively. In 2002, the prevalence of diabetes above age 18 reached to 6.1%, 3.7% and 1.8% respectively in China’s big cities, small and medium-sized cities and rural areas. It is estimated that the numbers of patients with diabetes in China has reached to 23.46 million, and around 17.15 million patients suffer from abnormal fasting blood glucose levels. High blood pressure has become the top

· 70 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Characteristic Indicators for Infectious Disease and Biological Safety Recurring infectious diseases. Infectious diseases refer to those which are caused by a pathogen and can be transmitted human to human, animal to animal or animal to human. They do not only harm the life and health of the patient himself, but also cause tremendous harm to the public through their propagation and prevalence. Those infectious diseases with multiple occurrences or a wide range of infection are called recurrent infectious diseases. Strict control and management are implemented in all countries. Stipulations regarding the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases have been formulated in China to keep 35 infectious diseases under control, such as influenza, viral hepatitis, bacillary dysentery, infectious encephalitis, tuberculosis, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, plague, AIDS and infectious atypical pneumonia. Recurrent infectious disease prevention and treatment systems have been set up, which have basically brought recurring infectious diseases under control. Emerging diseases. Diseases that newly emerge among the population are called emerging diseases. In some cases, recurrent diseases, such as bird flu, are also grouped in this category. At present, China is preparing for the establishment of an inspection and control system for emerging diseases.

Characteristic Indicators for Nutrition and Food Safety According to a nationwide nutrition and health survey made in 2002, there has been a remarkable improvement in food quality and nutrient intake for the inhabitants in China. However, severe malnutrition still exists, expressed in the coexistence of shortages in nutrition, nutritional imbalance and the related rapid growth of chronic diseases. The status of food safety and quality is an important mark of the economic development and living standard of a country. According to the white paper Status of Food Safety and Quality in China, the Chinese government has made efforts to improve food quality at source. Food quality has steadily improved as a whole, and food safety status has continued to improve. However, public food safety incidents have occurred from time to time. Thus, it is imperative to establish a more strict, efficient and accurate food safety assurance system.

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 71 ·

Roadmap 2050

health killer of the inhabitants in China. The rate of high blood pressure among patients aged 18 and above in China has reached to 18.8%. In China, there are 160 million people with high blood pressure, 110 million people of which are in the labor force aged between 18 and 59. In 2003, the labor force made up about half of the patients seeking medical advice within a given two week period due to one of the following five chronic diseases: malignant tumors, cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, high blood pressure and diabetes. Combating the harm caused by chronic diseases to the health of Chinese individuals and society as a whole is a most pressing task, and a prevention and treatment system for major chronic diseases must be set up to raise the rate of early diagnosis and reduce morbidity.

Roadmap 2050

Characteristic Indicators for Biomedical Industry According to the Development Report on Biotechnology in China published in 2006, the output of the medical industry makes up only about 2% of the total industrial output and about 7% of the total global medical output. China has a low medical innovation capacity. More than 97% of the medicines are imitations of foreign medicines. Our biomedical industry is not competitive in the world market. High-end medical equipment is primarily sourced by importation, and China’s independent R&D capacity for developing high-end medical equipment remains low.

In terms of China’s S&T roadmap for improved public health to 2050, the key task is to establish a biomedical research system, solve major scientific problems, and make breakthroughs in key technologies. Specifically, by around 2020, a translational research system integrating basic research and clinical applied research should be established. The key problems to be solved are the relationship between inheritance of major chronic diseases in the Chinese population and environmental factors, and mechanisms of propagation and infection of major infectious diseases. Breakthroughs should be made with respect to new methods and technologies for early diagnosis of major chronic diseases, generation of new technology for population control, as well as inspection technology for reproductive health. With respect to rapid, portable and accurate food safety inspection technology for foodborne diseases and food poisoning, we need to establish a technical and diagnostic platform for rapid inspection of common infectious diseases and emerging infectious diseases. Moreover, we have to establish a preliminary R&D system for innovative pharmaceuticals combining Chinese and Western technologies, and make breakthroughs in the field of large-scale stem-cell cultivation and directed-differentiation technology. By around 2030, we must establish a biomedical system that integrates modern life sciences with traditional Chinese medicine. The key scientific problems to be solved include molecular and cellular regulation mechanisms during the course of individual development. Breakthroughs have to be made with respect to large animal transgenic and somatic cloning technologies, reproductive technology for human organs produced in other species and used for organ transplantation, and reproductive health intervention technology. We have to develop new technologies for pharmaceutical and nutrition intervention with respect to the occurrence of major chronic diseases, and set up a high-grade biological safety laboratory, a standard inspection laboratory network, and an advanced food safety supervision network. New technologies of personalized drug therapy will be developed and breakthroughs will be made in the field of modern biotechnology based on synthetic biology. By around 2050, we need to build · 72 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Target: establishing an innovative biomedical system Translational research system

Systematic biomedical system

Comprehensive medical system

Target: realizing population control and reproductive health New population control technology. Reproductive health inspection technology

Reproductive health intervention technology

New auxiliary reproductive techniques

Target: reducing occurrence and impact of major chronic diseases Identification of inheritance factors in chronic diseases among the Chinese population

Large animal transgenic and somatic cloning technology Intervention in chronic diseases

Early diagnosis technique for occurrence of chronic diseases

Regeneration technology for human organs produced in other species and used for organ transplantation

u-clinic research network and biomedical databank In vivo molecular labeling and functional imaging Biological cognition, supervision and treatment for web-addiction

Target: improving biological safety and food safety systems Rapid response technology for infectious diseases, rapid inspection technology for food safety

Biological safety lab network, advanced food safety inspection network

Nutrition & health standard for Chinese population and technical support

Target: improving biological safety and food safety systems Innovative drug R&D system integrating Chinese and Western technologies

New technology for personalized drug therapy

Large-scale stem cell cultivation and directed differentiation

2020

New generation bio-medical technical system

Modern biological technology based on synthetic biology

2030

2050

Fig. 3.9 China’s S&T roadmap for improved public health to 2050

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 73 ·

Roadmap 2050

up a comprehensive medical system that integrates biology, the environment, psychology and society. The key scientific problems to be solved include the basic processes of brain and behavior, and cognitive impairment. Breakthroughs should be made with respect to molecular markers for neurological and mental diseases as well as functional imaging techniques. A biological cognition, supervision and treatment system for web-addiction should be established. We have to establish a nationwide u-clinic research network and biomedical databank, and provide scientific guidelines for a healthy lifestyle that is adapted to the genetic background of the Chinese population. We have to establish a new-generation biomedical system integrating advanced instrumentation technology, nano-scale biomedical technology, minimally invasive technology and combinations of instrumentation with drugs. Refer to Fig. 3.9 for details.

Roadmap 2050

3.6 The Development System of Ecological and Environmental Conservation The development system of ecological and environmental conservation consists of four aspects: response to global climate change, environmental quality of watersheds, the urban environmental quality of cities, and biodiversity & ecosystem. Its objectives are: to principally curtail the degradation of ecological environment in China by around 2020; to accomplish both the restoration of representative degraded ecosystems and the remediation of polluted environments by around 2030; to achieve environmental gracefulness and ecological health, and to reach the medium-level of developed countries (Table 3.6). Table 3.6 Characteristics and objectives for China’s development system on ecological and environmental conservation to 2050 Category

By around 2020

By around 2030

By around 2050

Monitoring system of climate change

To establish basic ground-based and space-based monitoring system with different variables

To establish an integrated climate monitoring system, to meet the needs for climate information from different fields

To accomplish scientific prediction of change of climate

Influence on the Response to relationship global climate between change human and nature in China

To outline the scope and intensity of climate change influences on meteorological disasters, water resources and agriculture

To provide a corresponding and systematic solution scheme on climate change for disaster prevention & reduction, water resources, ecosystem, agriculture and other fields

To effectively implement the main solution scheme on climate change with notable achievements

To provide timely key data and facts supporting diplomatic negotiation on climate change

To propose systematic and scientific views on the tendency of climate change, and its mitigation and adaptation

To sustain China’s active position in negotiation on climate change

Diplomatic negotiation on climate change

· 74 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Category

By around 2020

By around 2030

Significant improvement of environmental quality of key river watershed, reduction of target pollutants over 50%, one grade of river water quality promotion

Essential improvement of water quality of Chinese main rivers, reduction of target pollutants over 80%, water quality reach or near Grade III

Over 90% of rivers in China reach and keep steady in Grade III, basically attain the integrality of river ecosystems

Reduction of target pollutants over 50%, effectively control eutrophication trend, one grade of lake water quality promotion

Reduction of target pollutants over 80%, with a decrease of eutrophic lakes over 70%, water quality of important lakes reach or remain in Grade III

Reduction by over 90% of target pollutants, build up healthy lake systems, to ensure 90% lakes water quality reach or exceed Grade III

Non-point source pollution

Removal of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural non-point source up to 60%, conduct research on emission control of toxic chemicals

Removal of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural nonpoint source up to 80%,removal of toxic chemicals over 50%

Removal of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural nonpoint source up to 95%,removal of toxic chemicals over 75%

Water environment quality

Sewage treatment rate up to 85%, wastewater reuse rate 40%, the attainment rate of water quality to 90%

Sewage treatment rate up to 95%, wastewater reuse rate 60%, the attainment rate of water quality to 95%

Sewage treatment rate up to 100%, wastewater reuse rate up to 80%, the attainment rate of water quality to 100%

Over 70% cities of prefecture level and above (including the capital of the prefectures, autonomous prefectures and leagues) meeting the national air quality standard Level II

Over 85% cities of prefecture level and above (including the capital of the prefectures, autonomous prefectures and leagues) meeting the national air quality standard Level II

Over 95% cities of prefecture level and above (including the capital of the prefectures, autonomous prefectures and leagues) meeting the national air quality standard Level II

Comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste over 75%, and conducting research on remediation of contaminated sites

Comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste over 85%, and remediation rate of contaminated sites up to 40%

Comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste over 95%, and remediation rate of contaminated sites up to 65%

Rivers

Environmental quality of river Lakes basins

Quality of Urban atmospheric environmental environment quality

Solid waste and restoration of contaminated sites

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

By around 2050

· 75 ·

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.6(Continued)

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.6(Continued) Category

Biodiversity and ecosystem

By around 2020

By around 2030

Restoration of degraded ecosystems

Indicators of grassland ecosystem reach the level in the early 1950s; artificial green coverage up to 50% in barren hills, abandoned land and marginal lands

Productivity of grassland in Northern China reaches optimum; maximum green coverage over 90%

Conservation of fragile ecosystems

Desertification land To principally curb reduced by 15%; the trend of ecological natural reserve area degradation in major takes 20% of total areas land

Ex situ conservation and in situ Conservation conservation reaches of endangered 80%, and 50%, species respectively; natural reserve area takes 17% of the total land

Ex situ conservation: 90%; in situ conservation: 70%; construction of ecological corridors

By around 2050

100% restoration rate, and the formation of healthy and stable ecosystem

Desertification land area reduced by 30%

Ex situ conservation to 100%; in situ conservation 90%; achieving the recovery of endangered species

Indicators to Cope with Global Climate Change A climate change monitoring system. The climate change monitoring system is an integrated observation, exploration, experiment and test platform to study the essential factors in the climate system. The purpose to build the climate change monitoring system is to monitor current climate change, and systematically investigate the past and current climate changes and to further the understanding of its intrinsic mechanism. In recent years, China’s climate change monitoring system has been developed by leaps and bounds; however, the frequency in time and space coverage should be strengthened. Impact on the relationship between human and nature. Since the industrialization, human activities have led to an increase in the greenhouse gas emissions and the concentration of aerosol in atmosphere, as well as impacts on the earth’s surface environment to different degrees. This has already resulted in the world-wide climate change. Due to China’s insufficient capacity of scientific assessment of the climate change, it is essential to strengthen the country’s research and to develop programs to cope with the climate change. Diplomatic negotiation on climate change. Climate change has become one of the key diplomatic issues in the international community. Presently, China has signed a series of international treaties on climate change. Comprehensive and accurate scientific data, research results and response programs are urgently needed to deal with international activities and the implementation of treaties in the environmental domain.

· 76 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Rivers. Within the state-controlled sections along the seven Chinese major river systems, the proportion of Grade I-III water was 55% in 2008, Grade V was 20.8%. Within 746 state-controlled sections of surface water, the proportion of Grade I-III water was 47.7%, Grade V was 23.1%. In accordance with the requirements in the State’s 11th Five-Year Plan of Environmental Protection (2006– 2010), the proportion of the water quality better than Grade III must be more than 43% within the state-controlled sections along the seven major river systems. The proportion of the surface water quality worse than Grade V within the statecontrolled sections must be less than 22%. Lakes. Currently, 75% of China’s lakes are suffering from various degrees of eutrophication, while blue algal bloom outbreaks are frequently occurring and water shortage is becoming increasingly serious, which results in a shortage of freshwater resources and increased flooding and drought. All these situations retard the regional development and affect people’s lives. Eutrophication is a water pollution caused by high concentrations of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus. Under natural conditions, lake eutrophication is an extremely slow process. But in the process of industrialization, a large number of industrial wastewater and sewage, as well as the nutrients from arable lands discharged into lakes, reservoirs, estuaries and gulfs. This leads to the proliferation of aquatic organisms, especially algae, which has damaged the ecological balance of water bodies. A large number of dead aquatic organisms sharply lessen the dissolved oxygen in water bodies. This increases the deterioration of water quality and greatly speeds up the process of eutrophication in water bodies. Diffused source pollution. Diffused source pollution refers to pollution, by which pollutants from non-specific points are collected through the run-off process into the receiving water bodies (including rivers, lakes, reservoirs and gulfs). Agricultural diffused source pollution are pollutants from the agrarian activities (such as nitrogen, phosphorus, pesticides and other organic or inorganic pollutants) when they are collected through farmland runoff and leakage. This leads to environmental pollutions in the earth’s surface water and groundwater, which are the most important and most widely distributed diffused source pollution in China, exemplified that the removal of agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus is only carried out in some watersheds.

Indicators for Urban Environmental Quality Up to October 2008, 1459 sewage water treatment plants have been built nationwide in cities, counties and some key towns, with a total processing capacity of 85.53 million tons per day. National urban sewage treatment rate reached 63% while wastewater reuse rate is less than 20%. The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requests that up to 2010 the national urban sewage treatment rate should be over 70%. Policy on Technology of Reuse of Recycling Wastewater issued by the former Ministry of Construction and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China in 2006 stipulates that, in 2010, the direct reuse

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 77 ·

Roadmap 2050

Indicators for Watershed Environmental Quality

Roadmap 2050

rate of recycling water should reach 10%–15% of urban sewage discharge in cities of water shortage in north China, 5%–10% in coastal cities with water shortage in Southern China; in 2015, 20%–25% in cities with water shortage in Northern China and 10%–15% in Southern China’s coastal cities with water shortage; other regions and cities should also launch this project and gradually increase the utilization rate. The attainment rate of water quality for functional areas in urban water environment refers to the average value of the qualified rates of water quality in water zones of various functions, which is the outcome of measuring the monitoring results of surface water in authorized sites of urban downtown area in the light of corresponding water function standards. The attainment rate of water quality for functional areas in costal cities water function areas refers to the weighted mean of the qualified rate of surface water function zones and the qualified rate of offshore sea function zones; the qualified rate of non-costal city water function zones means the average of qualified rates of various surface water function zones. According to The Annual Report of National Urban Environment Management and Comprehensive Improvement in 2007 issued by Environmental Protection Department, the attainment rate of water quality in urban water environment function areas nationwide averages 86.50%. According to The State of Environment in China in 2007 issued by the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection, 60.5% of the cities at prefecture level or above (including the capitals of prefectures and leagues) in China has reached the national air quality specification Level II. In 2007, the volume of the industrial solid wastes was 1.76 billion tons with an increase of 15.9% over the previous year; the rate of multipurpose utilization of the industrial solid wastes was 62.1%, 1.9% higher than the previous year.

Indicators for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Degraded eco-system means that an ecosystem deviates the natural state by human and natural disturbance. Comparing to original ecosystem, degraded ecosystem has low biodiversity, simple structure, poor production and weak adjustment function. Up to now, all types of ecosystems in China are in different degrees of degradation process. Fragile ecosystem is an ecosystem which is sensible to environmental change, and has low capacity of resisting disturbance. Vulnerable ecosystem mainly includes the Tibetan Plateau, Loess Plateau, karst regions and northern grassland areas. Fragile ecosystems covers more than 60% of surface area of China. An endangered species is a population of an organism which is at risk of becoming extinct throughout all or a significant portion of its range. The percent of all kinds of endangered species in China is 20%–40% . In higher plants, the rate of endangered or nearly endangered species is 15%–20%, above the world average. Conservation of endangered species means to conserve the 12%–20% of species which is currently endangered in China.

· 78 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 79 ·

Roadmap 2050

In terms of China’s S&T roadmap for ecological and environmental science to 2050, it focuses on four aspects: 1) to solve core scientific problems, 2) to make technological breakthroughs in key areas, 3) to implement systematic integration of key technologies, and 4) to develop experimental areas for the demonstrations of key technologies and their integration. Key scientific and technological breakthroughs shall cover topics like: 1) changes in environmental quality at different temporal and spatial scales; 2) sustainable technologies for ecosystem restoration and pollution control; 3) three-dimensional monitoring systems for ecosystems and environmental quality. The roadmap contains the following three steps: 1) by around 2020, to understand climate change in China in modern times, and the influence from human activities; to establish earth system models to predict climate changes; to develop sustainable methods for ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation in representative regions; to understand the changes in environmental quality at catchment level; to develop physio-chemical, biological and ecological technologies for pollution control, and systems approach to environmental conservation at catchment level; to understand biogeochemical processes in coastal and urban areas; to understand and identify pollution sources and the impacts of complex contamination on humans and ecosystems. 2) By around 2030, to elucidate the kinetics of climate change in China; to improve earth system models for the prediction of climate changes; to establish holistic approaches to ecosystem restoration and the conservation of endangered species; to develop systems for water quality conservation under different natural conditions; to understand biogeochemical processes at catchment scale; to understand urban metabolism and to develop approaches to regulating urban metabolism; to understand the formation of complex air pollution in cites and mega-cities and their impacts on humans and ecosystems; to develop sustainable technologies for soil pollution control and remediation of contaminated sites in urban and peri-urban areas; to develop knowledge on the fluxes of pollutants between different environmental media and systematic approaches for risk reduction at catchment scale; to develop ecoplanning methodologies for cities and mega-cities; 3) By around 2050, to form a theoretical and physical framework for understanding climate change in China; to establish mature earth system models to predict climate changes; to integrate technologies and to formulate management systems for risk control/reduction at catchment level; to set up integrated demonstration areas (cities in particular) for land and water conservation and to promote sustainable development at regional scale; to achieve the full restoration of degraded ecosystems, and to establish well-defined system to protect endangered species; to develop regional demonstration areas with the optimization of multiple objectives focusing on the sustainable development of cities and mega-cities (Fig. 3.10).

Roadmap 2050

Recognize the basic fact of climate change in modern China

Response to global climate change

Reveal the dynamic mechanism of China’s climate change

Scientific evaluation on the effects of human activity Establish China’s earth system model

Real time short-term climate forecast and long-term climate prediction

Set up climate change forecast and prediction system Reveal time and space changing rules of river basin quality and the water quality evolvement dynamic mechanism of river basin

River basin environment quality

Understand biogeochemical processes of coastal ecosystem

Biodiversity and ecosystem

Build a theoretical and technical system to improve water environment quality which fits China and the characters of key river basin Establish a multi-media pollutants cycle technology

Develop specific targeted physicalchemical, biological and ecological engineering technologies on characteristic watershed pollutant and pollution effect controls

Urban environment quality

Set up the theoretical and physical frame of China’s climate change,well-establish climate change forecast and prediction system, and an earth system model

Develop watershed biogeochemical process controlling technology

Improve the theoretical and technical system for water environment risk control and risk management of China’s watershed, set up a list of water environment quality improvement and comprehensive demonstration area for sustainable development

Understand urban ecosystem process and human stress mechanism

Create urban metabolism controlling method

Explain combined pollution occurrence mechanism along with ecological and health effect

Develop combined air pollution control and water quality safety guarantee technologies

Uncover urban group combined pollution mechanism

Set up urban and urban group designing and planning methods

Develop restoration principles for degraded ecosystem

Establish restoration technology system for degraded ecosystemrestoration

Set up ecosystem conservation technology system

Determine the biodiversity in typical areas

Construct a technical system to conserve endangered species

Improve endangered species’ conservation technology system

2008

2020

Effectively control water shed pollutants, achieve watershed environmental health

Establish experiment areas to optimize urban and urban group multiobjective

2030

Mitigate and adapt to the global climate change, reduce the relevant negative effects

Fulfill the theory, methods and technology system to attain a sustainable developing city

Ensure ecological security, achieve harmonious development between human and nature

2050

Objectives

Fig. 3.10 China’s S&T roadmap for ecological and environmental science to 2050

· 80 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

As to the establishment of the expanded system of space and ocean exploration capability, the key task is to expand the abilities in following five aspects: 1) marine exploration and application ability, 2) marine resource exploration and application ability, 3) space science and exploration ability, 4) space technology ability, and 5) the ability of earth observation and multispatial information application (Table 3.7). Table 3.7 The characteristic and objectives of China’s expanded system of the ocean and space exploration capability to 2050 Category

By around 2020

By around 2030

Extend from West Extend to the entire Area of marine Pacific to East Indian Pacific and Indian exploration Ocean, and two Polar Ocean regions

Exploration depth

Reach down to 7,000 m with Human Occupied Vehicle (HOV), and 11,000 m with Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV)

Marine Realize dynamic investigation Environmental environmental and forecast in the application security coastal regions

Ecological security

Realize real-time observation on ecological key factors in coastal regions

By around 2050

Cover the global oceans

Human Occupied Vehicle down to Drill down to 2,000 m 11,000 m; drill down to beneath submarine floor 1,000 m beneath submarine floor

Realize environmental dynamic forecast in key ocean zones and ocean shipping routes

Establish independent and advantageous global maritime safety system

Forecast and warn significant changes in ocean ecosystem

Establish an integrated management mode for sustainable marine ecosystem

Preliminarily digitize Construct and complete the sea territory Finalize the digitization Digital marine the global oceans and the exclusive of China’s offshore digitization economic zone

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 81 ·

Roadmap 2050

3.7 The Expanded System of Space and Ocean Exploration Capability

Roadmap 2050

Table 3.7(Continued) Category

Marine resource exploration and application

Space science and exploration ability

Space technology ability

Earth observation and multispatial information application ability

By around 2020

By around 2030

By around 2050 Reach 100 million toe annual oil and gas production in the East China Sea and the South China Sea; begin commercial exploitation of gas hydrate and submarine ore deposits

Oil-gas and mineral resources

Investigate and locate the major promising ocean areas of mineralization

Exploit deep-sea oil and gas in large scale; and begin trial commercial production of gas hydrate and submarine ore deposits

Bio-resource

Reach 60 million tons of annual fishery production (including that of freshwater); exploit new marine bioresources and enhance valueadding to products

Increase the annual fishery production amount to 80 million tons, construct new marine bio-industry clusters with high value

Realize the modernization in fishery and marine bio-industry sectors

Marine chemical resource

Realize sea water desalination and mass production of major chemoresources

Solve the freshwater shortage in islands and the like, and realize the mass productions of the rare chemical resources including nuclear fuel

Solve freshwater supply shortage in nearshore regions, and produce chemicals from seawater in a refined, high-value added, and innocuous manner

Sustainable development of coastal zones

Establish a system of diagnosing and evaluating coastal ecosystem

Control the ecosystem degeneration in coastal zones, and plan and manage scientifically the resources in coastal zones

Realize the integrated and scientific management and sustainable development

Distance in deep space

The probe can reach Mars

The probe can reach Jupiter

The probe can reach the border of solar system

Space science satellite

Complete the basic coverage over key space science disciplines

Reach the global advanced level

Rank among the best countries of space science in the world

High spatial resolution observation Ability

Aperture: 2 m Spatial resolution: 0.1˝

Aperture: 4 m Spatial resolution: 0.05˝

Aperture: 10 m Spatial resolution: 0.01˝

Manned spaceflight

Space station with a long-term human residence

Manned lunar landing, and lunar base establishing

Manned landing on Mars

High speed space communication

Inter-satellite and satellite-ground communication data rate: 25 Gbps

Inter-satellite and Satellite-ground communication data rate: 30–40 Gbps

Inter-satellite and Satelliteground communication data rate: 100 Gbps

Spatial and group network covering region

China

Asia

World

Data updating rate

1 year

1 month

1 day

Rapid response ability

4–5 hours

1–2 hours

Quasi real time

Note: Gbps (Gigabit per second)

· 82 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Exploration area. Marine area exploration refers to the use of high-tech instruments to detect and locate major factors of the environment, geology and landform, and mineral deposits at surface, under water, and at bottom. China’s current study on marine science can be carried out within the scope of the world’s oceans, but that on a certain-scale, long-term, systematic ocean dynamic environment detection is limited to the local sea off China’s coast and the Western Pacific. Detection depth. Detection depth mainly refers to the depth that modern high-tech instruments-aided operations can reach efficiently and safely. Major facilities include deep-sea manned and unmanned remote-controlled underwater vehicles and acoustic echo sounder. Currently, China owns 6,000 m unmanned detection equipment, and 7,000 m manned underwater vehicles are being developed. Marine environmental security. The marine environmental security mainly refers to marine safety in a dynamic environment, including marine dynamic environmental impact assessments, monitoring and forecasting capabilities, as well as related hardware and software. China is able to conduct general marine surveys worldwide. However, its capacity in scaled and systematic prospecting and monitoring of dynamic marine structure and variation is only limited to China’s coastal waters and the Western Pacific. Marine ecosystem security. Marine ecosystem security here mainly refers to the environmental protection of marine bio-resources and marine ecosystems, and the required hardware and software with which the safety is ensured. With the establishment of real-time in-situ single-point observation systems on temperature, salinity, flow, and chlorophyll, China is able to conduct general surveys from time to time on near-shore ecological environments for mapping and speculating the ecostructure and its variation patterns. Digital ocean. Digital ocean refers to the use of GIS technology to convert dada into measurable figures, data, and to establish appropriate digital models. At present, China has begun to develop local marine flow field and digital topography.

Characteristic Indicators for Marine Exploration and Utilization Ability Marine oil and gas resources and other deposits. Marine oil and gas resources include mainly the strategic resources such as offshore oil, natural gas, gas hydrates, ocean polymetallic nodules, cobalt-rich crusts, hydrothermal sulfide, and coastal sands. Although China has begun to investigate deep-water oil and gas, gas hydrates and hydrothermal sulfide, it has yet to grasp the deep-water oil and gas, gas hydrates and sulfide resources and resource distribution. Marine bio-resources. Marine bio-resources include various marine organisms, life materials and their components that are currently or potentially useful or valuable to the human beings, such as organisms’ organs, tissues, cells,

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 83 ·

Roadmap 2050

Characteristic Indicators for Marine Exploration and Application Ability

Roadmap 2050

metabolites, and genes etc., and those being sought as important sources in food, medicine, bio-material, bio-products, and bio-energy, etc. In 2008, China’s total aquatic products reached 48.9 million tons, and the total added values from marine fishery and marine bio-medicine sectors were 227.4 billion Yuan. Marine water and chemical resources. Marine water and chemical resources include the freshwater and dissolved materials available from seawater for human use, such as freshwater, salt, bromine, potassium, magnesium, diplogen, and uranium, and so on. At present, China has mastered reverse osmosis and distillation technology etc. Now, the production of seawater desalinization in China is about 31,000 m3/d. Once-through water-cooling technique has entered the level of 10,000 m3/h demonstration phase of industrialization. However, research and development on resources of rare chemical elements are under-developed, and the in-depth exploration and utilization are weak and the technology for large-scale lowinput-for-high-yield operation is scarce. Sustainable development of coastal zones. Coastal zones are the area near shoreline between land and sea, whose inner boundary is at about 10 km landward from the coastline, while the outer boundary is at 10–15 m isobath off the coastline. Coastal zones are the areas of rich resources in changeable and complex environment; and also the base of marine exploration and economic development, and the hub of shipping activities between land and sea, as well as the vulnerable area of frequent delayed disaster and storm surge, typhoon, and other natural disasters. At present, protection of the coastal zones in China has been reinforced by establishing administrative or legislative regulations. However, inappropriate development in these areas has resulted in serious problems in the environment and resources, and hindered the sustainable development of coastal zones.

Characteristic Indicators for Space Science and Exploration Capability Space science satellites are the spacecrafts used to explore the natural phenomena such as physics, astronomy, chemistry, and life science and their laws occurring in solar-terrestrial space, interplanetary space and the universe. NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and ESA (European Space Agency) both have their own comparatively complete space science satellite series. China implemented the first space science program at the beginning of the 21st century – “Double Star Program”, while no space science satellite series has been established yet.

Characteristic Indicators for Earth Observation and Multi-spatial Information Application Ability Spatial and group network covering region refers to the data-collecting ability of the earth observation system and the spatial data centre locations freely accessible to the network. Spatial data updating rate is an important indicator for the Digital Earth Scientific Platform, which can be built based on the users’ demands. With current technology, a global updating takes 18 months. For the most-concerned regions,

· 84 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The Characteristic Indicator for Space Technology Ability High spatial resolution observation ability refers to the ability of observing instruments to distinguish two points in the astronomic, solar and earth observation. Man’s naked eyes can only distinguish two points whose minimum apparent diameter is 1ə (1°=60ə, 1ə=60ɤ). If the diameter is smaller than 1, the two points are too close for man’s naked eyes to distinguish: only a point can be spotted. The spatial resolution will be much higher if using an optical telescope. High spatial resolution ability usually requires a much longer focal length and a bigger aperture of the telescope. Manned spaceflight refers to the ability to carry out activities based on manned spacecraft in outer space. The main objective is that human beings can participate directly in the exploration, development and utilization of the space and celestial bodies (including the Earth). At present, Chinese Manned Space Program is in the first phase of its second step in accordance with a “Three-Step Plan”. Moderate experiments and research will be conducted on earth science, microgravity science, life science, space astronomy and space physics, etc. High speed space communication refers to the data transmission ability between spacecrafts or between spacecrafts and the earth. At present, space laser communication technology is the most rapidly developing technology with the broadest application prospect. It can implement the ultrahigh speed data communications between spacecrafts or between spacecrafts and the ground stations.

As such, it is necessary to carry out China’s S&T roadmap for space science and technology development to 2050 and China’s roadmap for marine science and technology development to 2050. The main concerns of the S&T roadmap for space science and technology development to 2050 are as follows. In the aspect of space science, efforts should be targeted at the following four major science problems in order to implement the space science and exploration programs: 1) the direct exploration of black hole, dark matter, dark energy, and gravitational wave, 2) the origin and evolution of the solar system, 3) the impact of solar activities on the earth environment and its forecast, and 4) the exploration of extraterrestrial life. In the aspect of earth observation and multi-spatial data applications, an advanced earth observation system for monitoring multiple parameters is to be developed, and the Digital Earth Scientific Platform and Earth System Simulation Network Platform are to be constructed. In space technologies, breakthroughs should be 3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 85 ·

Roadmap 2050

the updating takes only a few hours. In general, the updating rate is directly proportional to the frequency of utilization. Quick-response ability is one of the important technological system indicators for an unexpected natural disaster. Specific quick-response ability varies in accordance with different kinds of disasters. For example, quasi real-time is needed for airplane remote sensing when dealing with great earthquakes.

Roadmap 2050

made in key and bottleneck technologies in six important aspects: high spatial resolution ability, ultrahigh precision of spatial and time standards, near space flights, ultrahigh speed flights in deep space and autonomous navigation, high speed communications in space, and human life and activity supporting system in space. The concrete steps are as follows: by around 2020, a space science research system based on space science satellite series is to be established. A comprehensive earth observation system is to be developed, and the Digital Earth Scientific Platform is to be constructed with nation-wide network connection within China. Breakthroughs are to be made in the technologies of man’s long-term life supporting in the space station and multi-spectrum and multi-purpose space telescope with 2 m aperture, and corresponding high speed data transmission. The technologies in the autonomous astronomic navigation are to be mastered preliminarily. Large zero-pressure high altitude balloons and the first generation of the stratosphere airships are to be put into flight in the near space. By around 2030, important research results should be achieved in forming a complete space science research and exploration system to acquire first-hand exploration data, making China to be one of the world powers with advanced space science. A comprehensive earth observation system is to be further improved, and the Digital Earth Scientific Platform is to be constructed so that spatial data centre can be connected by high-speed network within Asia. Manned lunar missions are to be accomplished and a lunar base is to be established. The ultrahigh precision spatial and time standard is to reach the world level. The ultrahigh spatial resolution telescope is to be developed with a 4 m aperture and foldable lens in visible and infrared bands. A deep space interplanetary probe is be developed to execute interplanetary voyage and high precision autonomous navigation, and to explore the planets beyond the Mars. Breakthroughs are to be made in the technologies for the large and medium super-pressure balloons. A balloon station at the Antarctic is to be built up, the sounding rockets are to be regularly launched for the integrated experiments, and the second generation of stratosphere airship is to be developed and standardized for application. By around 2050, great breakthroughs in answering the basic science problems, such as, the universe, solar system, motion law of matter, and origin of life are to be made. High-speed network connection around the world is to be achieved, and the simulation and early prediction of global change and huge disasters are to be carried out. Manned spaceflights are to be extended to the further planets from the lunar base. The unmanned spacecrafts are to fly out of the solar system into the interstellar space. The space ultrahigh spatial resolution interferometric telescope is to be developed with a 10 m aperture. The ultrahigh speed laser communication is to be implemented, and its data rate is to increase by 2 orders higher than the present level. The stratosphere station is to be established on the basis of large super-pressure balloons, a new generation of stratospheric airships is to be developed, and network applications is to be carried out, making man’s access to space more · 86 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Lunar exploration: landing and sample return

Launching planetary scientific laboratory; Mars landing exploration

Planetary exploration beyond Mars

Manned space laboratory and space station

Guarantee of permanent human residence in space

Most optical and other payloads for space and earth observation being at the leading level of the world

Space communication data rate and key platform technologies capable of meeting needs of applications

Space communication data rate and key platform technologies at the advanced level of the world, capable of meeting most application needs

Space communication data rate and key platform technologies at the leading level of the world, capable of meeting almost all application needs

Achieve a partial breakthrough in deep space flight, autonomous navigation, and positioning

Achieving systematic breakthroughs in deep space flight, autonomous navigation, and positioning

Deep space flight, autonomous navigation, and positioning at the advanced level of the world

Mainly making use of domestic application satellite data and foreign satellite data, while making use of a small quantity of earth science satellite data

Making use of domestic application satellite data and foreign satellite data, and the proportion of earth science satellite data increases sharply

Mainly making use of domestic application satellite data and earth science satellite data, and making use of foreign satellite data only as a supplement

Establishing Digital Earth Scientific Platform; initiation of some interdisciplinary research and case studies

Establishing Earth System Simulation Network Platform on the basis of the Digital Earth Scientific Platform

Earth System Simulation Network Platform in full service

2010

2020

2030

Providing strong support for science exploration and space information applications

Some optical and other payloads for space and earth observation payload being at the leading level of the world

Being an indispensable support for the national decision-making

Most payloads for space and earth observation being at the advanced level in the world

Building manned lunar base, embarking on the large-scale exploration with specific lunar equipment

Making significant contribution to human civilization

Being a space power, being able to make some significant and original breakthroughs in fundamental science

Manned Mars exploration

Establishing an integrated space science research system; launching 2–3 science satellites per year

Manned lunar landing

Space science Related space technologies Space application

Establishing a multidisciplinary space science research system; launching series of science satellite

2050

Fig. 3.11 China’s S&T roadmap for space science and technology to 2050

In terms of China’s S&T roadmap for marine science and technology development to 2050, it focuses on two areas (marine resources exploration/ utilization, and marine environment protection/security) in four key directions (physical ocean, marine geology, marine biology, and marine ecology) for 3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 87 ·

Roadmap 2050

affordable and efficient (see Fig. 3.11 for detailed information).

Science Technology

Roadmap 2050

developing three major technologies (of marine monitoring, marine biotechnology, and marine non-bioresource exploration/utilization), so as to solve a series of key scientific problems and master some key technologies. The concrete steps are as follows: by around 2020, to improve largely the marine sciences system of Chinese marine territory and the adjacent regions, to establish the three-dimensional monitoring and digital stimulation systems for near-shore and the Western Pacific regions, to master the technologies of marine organism gene resource application, aquaculture, fishery resource maintenance and sustainable fishing, bio-resources sorting/refining, and seawater desalination and marine chemical materials utilization, and to

To explain much better the roles that the ocean plays in the earth system

To step into the world level in marine science and technology

To be a world power in marine science and technology

To achieve the world top three in marine science and technology

To establish threedimensional monitoring and digital stimulating systems for near-shore and the Western Pacific regions

To set up an fourdimensional assimilation system of monitoring and digital modeling in the crucial regions

To establish an integrated monitoring system for ocean dynamics, environment and ecology of near-shore regions

To develop and master high and new technologies in related to mariculture, fisheries resource maintenance and sustainable fishing, bio-resources sorting/ refining, and seawater desalination and marine chemical materials utilization

To master the technologies such as breeding by molecular design, immunization control of the fish disease, innovation and manufacture of marine drugs and extraction of the rare valuable marine chemical resources etc

To develop facilities and technologies for submarine exploring To develop deep-sea exploration for oil and gas and other deposits

2008

2020

To make much more contributions to sustainable utilization of resources, healthy environment in the ocean and harmonious development of the human society

To make significant breakthroughs in solving some crucial issues of marine science and technology

To improve largely the marine sciences system for Chinese territorial seas, the Exclusive Economic Zone and the adjacent regions

To leap from the advanced role to the leading one

To develop technologies for safety exploration/storage/ transportation of oil and gas, natural hydrate and other deposits in the deep seas

2030

To establish an preliminary monitoring and digital forecasting system of the oceans in the world

To realize advanced farming and ranching of the marine productivity and high-efficient utilization of marine resources To realize high-level technical integration between environmental-friendly fine marine bio-production and gene utilization

To solve a series of critical scientific problems and to master some key technologies, in order to sustain a powerful national coast defense and rational utilization of the marine resources

To establish massive system of equipments and facilities for exploring the resources in the deep seas

2050

Fig. 3.12 China’s S&T roadmap for marine science and technology development to 2050

· 88 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

3.8 The National and Public Security System The main contents of the national safety and public security system include the fields of space, ocean, biology, and information network. The strategic goal is to ensure the ability of entering and peaceful use of space, to protect the marine industry and sea transportation safety, to keep away the biology threat to the people’s livelihood and ecological environment, and to keep the security of information and network in the process of China’s modernization, so as to safeguard national interests, defend state sovereignty, and maintain social stability. In terms of space safety, it’s of most importance to develop the abilities of entering and reentering the space freely, precisely positioning and navigation, information acquisition, transmission and application. By around 2020, break through the key techniques of anti-jamming space vehicle positioning and navigation; flexible new concept micro-satellite and satellite formation flying. Develop the ability of space transportation, service and maintenance. Break through the key techniques of high speed modulation-demodulation and quantum key distribution. Develop the ability of space-to-space, space-toground laser communication with rate above 20 Gbps. By around 2030, break through the key techniques of space based solar energy collection and wireless transmission. In terms of ocean safety, it’s of most importance to develop the abilities of acquisition and transmission of the ocean environment information, to forecast the disastrous weather and monitor sudden affairs, to develop the advanced ocean platform, to keep the defense ability of territorial sea and 3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 89 ·

Roadmap 2050

develop facilities and technologies for submarine expedition, and for deepocean exploration for oil and gas and other deposits. By around 2030, to understand the roles and functions of the ocean in the earth system, to set up an four-dimensional assimilation system of key-area monitoring and digital modeling, to research and develop technologies in breeding by molecular design, in disease prevention and immunization, in marine drugs innovation and manufacture, in rare marine chemical substances abstraction, and in safety exploration/storage/transportation of deep-water oil and gas/natural hydrate/ other mineral deposits. And by around 2050, to rank the world top three in marine S&T development, to establish integrated monitoring systems of nearshore dynamic environmental ecology and systems of global marine monitoring and digital forecasting, to modernize sea farming and ranching, to realize high efficient utilization of seawater chemical substances, high-level technical integration between environmental-friendly fine marine bio-production and gene utilization, to establish equipment building systems for exploring deepsea resources in large scales, in an effort to sustain China’s position as a marine power (Fig. 3.12).

Roadmap 2050

China’s ocean economical zone and the ability of safe transportation in ocean transport corridor. By around 2020, breakthroughs should be made in the key technologies of under-water observation and information transmission, to develop the information fusion technology with satellite remote sensing, ocean shift observing and ocean long-term station observing, to develop the ocean based, adaptive, intelligent defense technologies, as well as the key technologies of early-warning and real-time monitoring of the ocean disaster. By around 2030, efforts should be made to develop the multi-function under-water intelligent information network. In terms of bio-safety, emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases pose serious threats to human health and social stability. Invasion of alien species can cause both immediate and potential hazards to the ecological environment and impact economic development. In particular, bio-terrorism and new types of biological agents represent serious potential threats to individuals and society in general. Thus, in the next several decades, strategic planning should focus on the development of major pathogen detection technologies, the establishment of new systems for monitoring emerging and lethal infectious diseases, the establishment of security assessment systems for evaluating the safety in application of alien species, new biological agents and new biological technologies and the development of new technologies to prevent and control infectious disease and bio-terrorism agents. By 2020, efforts should be made to ensure significant improvements in the prevention and control systems for emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and the public health emergency response system, to establish an initial national bio-safety network consisting of different regional bio-safety laboratories as a bio-safety platform, to clarify the possible mechanisms underlying cross-species spread of pathogens, genetic variation, generation of immune response, and pathogenesis, to develop rapid potent high-sensitivity pathogen detection technologies, new antiviral drugs and vaccines, to assess the effects of important alien species and genetically modified organisms on human health and the environment, and to apply new technologies in the development of bio-safety assessment methods. By 2030, the efforts should be made to ensure that the construction of an early warning system to aid in the prevention of acts of bio-terrorism and invasion of alien species, the establishment of a security assessment system to investigate the consequences of application of new biological agents and new technologies, the significant developments in comprehensive prevention and control technology against harmful alien species, emerging infectious diseases, bio-terrorism agents and new biological agents, and the preparation of strategic national reserves in technologies drugs and vaccines for treatment and prevention of diseases. In the information network security, with the continuous improvement of dissemination scale and speed of network information, actions of individuals or a small number of groups can lead to social unrest or damage to public information infrastructure facilities, and even organize terrorist attacks, which will make a percussive or even destructive impact on society with flexible · 90 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

3 China’s Eight Basic and Strategic Systems for Socio-economic Development

· 91 ·

Roadmap 2050

and unconventional approach in a short time at low cost. Therefore, we must accelerate the construction of network-information-based system for social trend of early warning, analysis, monitoring and emergency response. Around 2020, we will develop the communications structure and protocol architecture to ensure physical network security; research and develop effective methods and technologies, especially Web-based analysis technology of public opinion and security, social computing methods, etc., to prevent harmful web content; build the platform for simulation tests and security analysis. We will initially establish the social trend of early warning monitoring system to achieve emergency management of domestic unexpected social group events and to achieve effective management and decision support of important international security information. Around 2030, we will make breakthroughs in key technologies of network adaptive, self-detection, self-repair, etc.; build intelligent security network; establish the domestic scope sensor grid of social situation and computation experiment platform system; construct a comprehensive control, decision support and parallel management system for economic and social situation of early warning; achieve emergency management and decision support of major emergencies related to financial security, economic security, social security and so on. On this basis, we will establish an early-warning monitoring and decision support system of global economic and social situation.

Roadmap 2050

4

Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

The focus of China’s S&T roadmap for priority areas to 2050 is to address the major S&T initiatives of strategic importance to the country’s modernization process. Thanks to the over one-year’s research, we have strengthened out twenty-two S&T initiatives, which are of importance to either China’s international competitiveness in the scenario of globalization and the knowledge-based economy, or its sustained socio-economic growth, or its national security. Some of them are related to the frontier sciences, which should be planned in advance for the impending S&T revolution. These S&T initiatives of strategic importance have not yet or not sufficiently been laid out in the existing national S&T plans. As such, actions must be taken, at the national level, to mobilize resources to accomplish large undertakings, under China’s unique political and institutional system. Such measure as precursory projects, key research programs, or research priority clusters must be employed for further implementation, scientific plans be worked out, overall plans be made, division of labor as well as cooperation be adopted, and key research projects be tackled. By doing everything we can, breakthroughs in scientific theories and transformative innovation in key technology and system integration are expected to be achieved.

4.1 Six S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s International Competitiveness 4.1.1 New Principles and Technologies of “Post-IP” Network and its Test-beds The Internet is the most profound project in human history and has, ever since, become an indispensable infrastructure in our daily life and production activities. Due to its inherent deficiency in security, service quality and scalability, however, the existing TCP/IP-based Internet is unable to accomplish

4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 93 ·

Roadmap 2050

the goal of offering communication and quality-guaranteed services to everyone with any device at any place. It is, therefore, necessary to develop a new network infrastructure. There are three approaches to developing a new network infrastructure. The first is an evolutionary one, i.e., to develop new protocols based on the existing Internet system. The second is overlay, i.e., to establish various overlay networks on existing IP networks in order to realize various advanced applications. The third is revolution, i.e., to replace the existing Internet with “post-IP” networks. The first two approaches are incremental, making it difficult to fundamentally overcome the limitations of IP networks. With the objective of creating a low-cost and ubiquitous network infrastructure that can meet the demand of China’s information society development, the third approach attempts to inherit the Internet’s fundamental advantages such as openness and neutrality while casting off its technology restraints by taking a clean-slate mindset and starting from the fundamentals of network sciences, network architecture and test-beds. Recently, the USA, Europe, Japan and South Korea have all started the research on “post-IP” networks, such as “Future Internet Design” (FIND) in the USA and “AKARI” in Japan. At present, China has only a demonstrative project, namely, “China Next Generation Internet” (CNGI). Sponsored by China’s National Development and Reform Commission, this project focuses on the transition from IPv4 to IPv6 by following an evolutionary approach. So far, China has not initiated any “post-IP” network research project yet. For this strategically important field, however, China should learn from the experience of the Internet development in the 1970s, and launch, as soon as possible, its research on the principles and technologies of “post-IP” networks by fully utilizing its strategic S&T resources nationwide. To accomplish this task, the following key S&T problems should be solved. The first is to develop network science, i.e., to discover fundamental laws governing local-global interactions in networks, as well as corresponding regulation and control mechanisms. These laws and mechanisms can be used to guide the construction and application of a ubiquitous information network. The second is to design the architecture for such a network to enable unprecedented scalability, service quality and security. The third is to develop low-cost, convenient and efficient network terminals, network knowledge products and services so as to meet the needs of the 1.2 billion users in China. The fourth is to build wide-area ubiquitous network test-beds for the experimentation and validation of innovations in network science, technology, applications and business operations. Within a period of 15 year’s effort, China is expected to be an active and leading player in developing a future Internet system and u-society as well.

Roadmap 2050

Next Generation Internet Demonstrative Project China’s Next Generation Internet Demonstrative Project (CNGI) was initiated, in 2003, by China’s National Development and Reform Commission, together with seven other governmental departments. It has been undertaken by China Telecom and other five major network groups, with the participation of 100 universities, 100 research institutes and more than 70 enterprises. Under the coordination of the central government, the general goal of this seven-year project is to improve and enhance the existing networks and vigorously propel their applications, while solving key technology problems concerning the next generation Internet and its major applications. It is expected that, by 2010 when the project is accomplished, China will build the largest next generation Internet in the world and play an important role in developing its standards, technology and industry. This will promote the advancement of China’s information industry, enhance China’s capability of sustainable development, and benefit national economic and social development. Accessed from: www.cae.cn/swordcms/zxhd.419715.htm

4.1.2 Green Manufacturing of High-quality Raw Materials There is a soaring increase in China’s consumption and Manufacturing of fundamental raw materials, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, synthetic resin, rubber, cement and glass. Currently, China is leading the world in the output of many of these materials. For instance, it manufactured 489 million tons of iron and steel in 2007, accounting for 37% of the world’s total. However, China still faces some major challenges in this aspect. Firstly, the quality and performance of domestically manufactured materials are, in general, not high. The domestic demands for high-performance raw materials are largely fulfilled by imports. For example, in recent years, China has to purchase 30 million tons of highquality steel annually from abroad, and its imported synthesis resin and rubber amount to 50% of the domestic production. Secondly, the manufacturing of these materials causes serious environmental pollution. The raw materials manufacturing industry is reportedly the largest carbon dioxide producer in China’s industrial sectors. Thirdly, these industries consume huge amounts of energy and resources. The cement industry alone exhausts up to 25% of China’s total coal output each year. Finally, technologies and models for recycling utilization of materials remain to be established. Therefore, it is necessary to emphasize and develop low-cost green technologies for producing high-quality raw materials. Besides, full attention needs to be paid to the life cycle cost of the research, manufacturing and service of materials. To attain development, consideration may not only be made on manufacturing materials with superior performance and good processing · 94 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.1.3 Process Engineering of High-efficient, Cleaner, and recycling Utilization of Resources The environmental impact of the manufacturing industry is mainly attributable to the process industries due to their mass consumption of natural resources and energy. Future research and development should be focused on cleaner production and circular economy technologies capable of effectively controlling pollution sources and efficiently utilizing resources, so as to establish a green process engineering system for the high-efficient, cleaner, and recycling utilization of resources. This has been the main trend of the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry across the world. Recently, the USA has worked out a number of S&T roadmaps for green technology development in process chemistry for the next two to three decades, aiming at a 30% reduction in natural resources, energy consumption and pollutant discharging in the next 20 years by increasing the R&D investment for cleaner production technologies. Japan has set forth an “all green” strategy, highlighting pollution source control and environment-oriented technologies so as to cut down the energy consumption per unit of production by 50% and achieve the goal of near-zero risk of chemical substances by using new process and technology alternatives. China has a long way to go in the field of science and technology of green process engineering. Its R&D of the key technologies for cleaner production and a circular economy are still at an initial stage, far from meeting the objectives of energy conservation, emission reduction and resource efficiency. The existing national S&T plans do not pay enough attention to the R&D of key technologies for the source control of environment pollution and the efficient utilization of natural resources. Under this condition, China should speed up its deployment in this regard in the forms such as key research programs. The key S&T problems and priorities in the green process engineering system for the high-efficient, cleaner, and recycling utilization of resources are 4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 95 ·

Roadmap 2050

quality, but also on taking steps to reduce energy and resource consumption as well as environment pollution. In order to implement this important task, the following key technology problems should be solved: to reveal the relationship among the chemical composition, structures and properties of raw materials; to achieve breakthroughs in resource-conserving and environment-friendly technologies, materials design and related technical controlling principles and technologies, and technologies for low-cost and recycling utilization of resources; to explore technologies of low-cost recycling of waste materials, and re-utilization of these materials with value-added and low pollution; and to develop resource processing technologies with better comprehensive performance, reliability and low cost. The aim is to enable China’s fundamental raw materials manufacturing to reach to the world level by 2020, in a bid to satisfy the basic development requirements in all sectors of the country.

Roadmap 2050

as follows: 1) understanding the multi-scale mechanisms, control methods, and the engineering optimization and scale-up principles for material convertion and cycle in the high-efficient and cleaner utilization of resources, making breakthroughs on the key technologies of green process engineering, then developing new techniques, processes, equipment, and integrated technologies; 2) introducing new methods for eco-product design and life cycle assessment, making breakthroughs in resource recycling, environment monitoring, product disassembling and recycling, and low-cost technologies for CO 2 separation and recovery; 3) designing eco-industry systems in multiple scales, performing engineering demonstration and technique integration, and establishing the manufacturing systems with the integration of artery and vein green industry chain technology. It is expected, within the next 20 years, to cut raw material loss in process industry by 50%, to reduce its energy consumption per unit of product by 30%–50%, and to achieve a near-zero discharge of harmful industrial wastes and a comprehensive control over the chemical environment risks in the industrial manufacturing process. It is also expected that the utilization efficiency of secondary resources will be more than 60%. By then, a green process engineering system emphasizing the source control of environmental pollution and the recycling utilization of resources will be established and put into industrial application in light of China’s reality.

4.1.4 Ubiquitous Sensing-Based Informationized Manufacturing Systems With the maturity of such technologies as industrial wireless network, sensor network, radio frequency identification (RFID) and micro electronic mechanic system (MEMS), the capability of human being to control and use information is greatly expended, and here will come the era of “ubiquitous information manufacturing” – a new generation of ubiquitous sensingbased informationized manufacturing and automation technologies with ubiquitous information as their main driving force. The development of new generation automation and u-manufacturing technologies represented by ubiquitous sensing will transform the present “insufficient understanding” of manufacturing equipment and manufacturing process to the future transparent and time-space multidimensional sensing of manufacturing equipment and manufacturing process; and will substantially increase manufacturing efficiency, improve product quality, and reduce production cost and resource consumption. Ubiquitous sensing-based informationized manufacturing which will provide users with more transparent and customized services has become a new direction in manufacturing. We should make research on the new generation informationized manufacturing system in the space under ubiquitous information sensing. The key problems to be solved in ubiquitous sensing-based informationized manufacturing systems are as follows: ubiquitous sensing technology · 96 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.1.5 Exa (1018 ) Supercomputing Technology Supercomputing capability constitutes the core competence of a country in the information age. In particular, the rapid development of life sciences has created strong demand for supercomputing. This technology is expected to lead to major discoveries in life sciences by providing a powerful simulation tool and penetrating computational thinking throughout the research process. Its influence would be as profound as that of the Earth Simulator System developed by Japan in the early 21st century, or of the particle collider in physics. The simulation of life phenomena needs exascale supercomputing. The objective of life simulator research is to develop a network computing system with a speed of 10 18 operations per second, so as to quickly and precisely simulate important life phenomena at three levels of genome, individual, and population. This will greatly promote the progress of many emerging interdisciplinary studies, such as computational biology, bioinformatics, nanoinformatics, brain science and cognition science. The results can be applied in biological detection, cultivation of better crop strains or livestock varieties, new drug discovery and disease prevention, etc. The key technology problem of life simulator research lies in exascale computing. In the face of such challenges as power consumption, efficiency and convenience, the existing computer technology is difficult to perform practical exascale computing. Breakthroughs should be made in integrated circuits, system architecture and programming models. A key science problem in this field is the computability of life phenomena, such as the simulation of a genome, an individual organism or the population health. Thanks to its research basis in computer and life sciences, it is possible for China to develop a life simulator, within the next 10 to 15 years, by initiating a national project to pool research resources across the country.

4.1.6 Molecular Design of Animal and Plant Strains and Products As a major strategy to enhance the quality and quantity of animal and plant strains, genetic improvement is now undergoing a transition from 4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 97 ·

Roadmap 2050

orienting to the needs of manufacturing system; manufacturing information acquisition and processing model; processing method and technology of mass manufacturing information to solve such problems as space-time aggregation of multidimensional information, fusion of multi-source and multi-rate information, and efficient mining and processing of manufacturing information; new manufacturing model and platform technology in the space of ubiquitous information sensing, construction of experiment and verification environment to provide the manufacturing industry with systematized knowledge system and complete set of technical resolutions. With 10 years’ efforts, we will strive to get breakthroughs in applications and technologies and to enable manufacturing industry to increase more than 10% of its production efficiency.

Roadmap 2050

conventional breeding to molecular design breeding in the new century. Centered on transgenic technology, the molecular design of novel varieties has become strategically significant in international competition. In recent years, the productivity of conventional breeding in China has been declining, which hampers the overall development of agriculture in this country. On the contrary, the advance in structural and functional genomics by Chinese scientists has laid a solid foundation for the molecular design of animal and plant strains. The key scientific interests include the following subjects: large scale compilation of elite gene resources from animal and plant germplasm resources; cloning genes controlling important traits and elucidation of the interaction maps of important pathways; establishment and assembly of molecular modules for breeding important traits; establishment of the technique system and infrastructure for molecular design breeding in a standardized large-scale and factory-based manner. In ten years, the initiative is expected to achieve the following goals: - To identify a large number of genes valuable in practical breeding and to significantly enhance China’s innovation capability in this regard; - To move forward from molecular design of important agronomic traits to the level of individual design for important crops like rice and wheat; - To primarily establish the technique system of molecular design breeding, application and extension; - To achieve molecular design and improvement for key traits mainly for important animal species, such as swine, cattle and sheep; - To carry out molecular design researches on the species level.

4.2 Seven S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Sustainability 4.2.1 “4,000 meter transparence underground” program While the possibility of finding new ore deposits located on or near to the ground surface is diminishing, the prediction of mineral resources that are deeply buried or located in overburden areas becomes a new direction of future prospecting. Most of the large or super-large ore deposits known in the world extend deeply underground. Some mineral producing powers are able to reach exploitation depths of 2,500–4,000 m. In particular, South Africa has gone beyond 4,000 m in this regard and is advancing to a new exploitation depth of 6,000 m. To discover a new generation of giant ore deposits, Australia proposed the Glass Earth initiative at the beginning of this century, as an effort to turn “transparent” the top 1,000 m underground Australian continent. Canada also launched a similar major program, aiming at making transparent the upper 3,000 m of strata. At present, the main prospecting problems of China include the · 98 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.2.2 New Renewable Energy Power Systems It is expected that new types of renewable energy will gradually increase their shares in the future energy portfolio. Currently, the main bottlenecks limiting the utilization of renewable energy are high cost, discrete installed capacity, uneven resource distribution, and unstable and small-scale operation. To solve these problems, it is advisable to construct MW- or even GW-level wind power farms and solar energy power plants, locate distributed energy systems nearby the demand side, and develop utilization bases integrating solar energy, wind energy and biomass energy. The key S&T problems in establishing a new renewable energy power system include the followings: for photovoltaic power, R&D priority should be placed on high-efficiency silicon-based solar cells, new types of low-cost solar cells, new concept cells and related materials. As to solar thermal power, the focus is on the technology breakthroughs in the system design of solar power towers, high-temperature parabolic trough vacuum pipes, and Sterling systems in a dish solar power plant. For wind power, it is very important to make breakthroughs in electronic controllers for MW-level wind turbines and their commercialization. For hydrogen energy, key technology breakthroughs lie in high-efficiency, low-cost hydrogen production, high-volume hydrogen storage and fuel cells. For the development of new renewable electricity generation 4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 99 ·

Roadmap 2050

following: a lack of metallogenetic theory and prognosis studies dealing with buried ore deposits, and a lack of technologies and methodologies to precisely determine the location of deeply concealed ore deposits. As a result, the exploitation depths of most current ore deposits are less than 500 m. Therefore there is a great potential for finding ore deposits in overburden areas and in the depth of the strata. Judging from the demands for mineral resources posed by its modernization, China should implement the “Transparent 4,000 m Underground Program,” so as to systematically deploy the research on mineral prospecting theories and technical methods, so as to significantly increase the proven reserves of domestic mineral resources. This initiative should deal with the following key scientific issues: First, to reveal the depth at which an ore deposit comes into being and its controlling factors, the mineralization mechanisms and the preserving conditions of ore deposits, and meanwhile to establish models for the formation of ore deposits with various dimensions; Second, to make breakthroughs in extracting the geochemical information about the mineralization process occurring in deep strata, and in geophysical and drilling techniques for detecting the deeply located ore deposits; Third, to establish a system of prospecting and evaluation methods for determining blind and deeply buried ore deposits, and meanwhile establish corresponding 3-D visualized models. This program aims to make transparent the upper 4,000 m strata of major regions in China by 2040, providing theoretical and technical support for accurately locating the deeply buried mineral resources and those in overburden areas.

Roadmap 2050

systems, it is important to make significance advances in technologies for the renewable electricity grid-connected coupling and for advanced energy storagebased distributed power generation and microgrids. It is expected to develop a large scale distributed power generation, and construct a massive demonstrative project for microgrids and renewable electricity systems by around 2020; to start the intelligent and commercial operation of microgrids in this regard by around 2030; and to set up a regional distribution electricity trading system based on microgrids and large-scale gridconnected operation by around 2050.

Solar (Photovoltaic) Generation Photovoltaics (PV) is a generation technology concerning the application of solar cells for power generation by converting sunlight directly into electricity. The practical applications of PV began in the mid-20th century. PV cells are the basis of PV power generation. More than 100 types of PV cells have been successfully developed during the past 50 years. So far, three types of them have been practically and commercially used, namely, solar cells made from mono-crystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon and amorphous silicon. The photoelectric conversion efficiency of a mono-crystalline silicon solar cell reaches 24.7% experimentally and 15%–18% commercially, and its module prices have dropped to $3-$4 per peak watt. During recent years, the PV cell industry has witnessed rapid development, and its annual output growth rate has reached 43% during the recent 5 years. In 2004, the total world output has reached 1,200 MW and the global accumulative installed capacity has reached 4,330 MW.

Solar Thermal Power Generation A lot of R&D work in this aspect has been carried out all over the world since the late 1970s. Demonstrative solar thermal power plants of tower type, parabolic trough type and dish type systems have been constructed. Parabolic trough solar thermal power generation. Nine trough type solar thermal power plants were built in California between 1985 and 1991, totaling 350 MW in power generation capacity with the largest stand-alone capacity reaching 80 MW and the total power generation efficiency up to 13%–16%. Their construction investments have fallen to about 2,000 $/kW and the cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity is about 5 cents. However, it is still higher than the investment and cost of US coal power stations. Solar tower. In the early 1980s, 7 solar tower demonstrative power plants were built in the world, with their power generation efficiency ranging from 500 to 10,000 kW and the investments from 10,000 $/kW to 30,000 $/kW. In the midto-late 1990s, US Sandia National Laboratory successfully constructed a 10,000 kW second-generation power plant named as “Tower II”, with its construction cost

· 100 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.2.3 Deep Geothermal Energy Power Generation High-grade geothermal energy mainly includes hydrothermal geothermal and hot dry rock. The reserves of hot dry rock are 1,000 times as many as that of hydrothermal geothermal. Since the 1970s, several developed countries have carried out research into hot dry rock. According to an assessment of the U.S. Department of Energy in 2007, the exploitation of merely 2% of the hot dry rock reserves about 3–10 km below ground surface will produce thermal power up to 280,000 EJ* or about 2,800 times of the annual consumption of primary energy in this country. Some developed countries such as Australia and the USA have invested large research funding for the development and demonstration of enhanced geothermal system technology. In China, the proved trove of hydrothermal geothermal resources is 3.2 billion tce, and its prospective reserves could be 130 billion tce. Based on this estimation, reserves of hot dry rock will reach 130 trillion tce, about130 times as many as China’s coal reserves in 2006. In fact, many attributes of geothermal energy are conducive to a sustainable energy future. They include its widespread distribution, baseload dispatchability without storage, small carbon footprint, and low emissions. Therefore, research in this aspect should be initiated in the form of a national key research program, focusing on the technology for deep geothermal power generation based on hot dry rock. This technology is the key for deep geothermal energy development. Many key S&T problems remain to be solved, including the important hydrodynamic thermodynamics and structural mechanics characters of working substance in a deep and complex geological structure. And breakthroughs are expected in such key technologies as drilling, reservoir, geothermal resource assessment and low or medium temperature geothermal energy power with two working substances.

* 1 EJ=1018 J

4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 101 ·

Roadmap 2050

dropping to 5,000 $/kW. Solar thermal power generation with dish concentrators. Several demonstrative projects of dish type solar thermal power generation systems have been built, with a high concentration ratio up to 1,000 ˚C and high power conversion efficiency. Because the mirror should not be too big in diameter, the electricity output of a single device is only tens of kilowatt. It can be an off-grid independent power supply, which can also form a series of parallel-connected high-power stations. Its investment cost is approximately 8,000 $/kW. Although being successfully demonstrated, the three types of solar thermal power generation technologies have not yet been widely put into practice, nor has the stand-alone capacity been kept on expending over the past decade. Only some R&D work has been carried out continuously.

Roadmap 2050

China should strive to make significant advances in related key technologies by around 2020, and to have matured key technologies and the scaling-up commercialization of deep geothermal energy power generation technology by around 2035. And by around 2050, the capacity of this technology should reach to 5%–10% of total China’s power capacity.

An Enhanced Geothermal System An enhanced geothermal system (EGS) produces heat and electricity by harnessing the energy from hot rock deep below the earth’s surface, expanding the potential of traditional geothermal energy by orders of magnitude. EGS is a type of geothermal power production using the high temperatures (200°C or higher) found in rocks a few kilometers below ground surface. Electricity is generated by pumping high-pressure water down a borehole (injection well) into the hot rock. The water travels through fractures in the rock, capturing the heat of the rock until it is forced out of a second borehole as very hot water, which is converted into electricity using either a steam turbine or a binary power plant system. All of the water, now cooler, is injected back into the ground to heat up again in a closed loop. EGS is one of the few renewable energy sources that can provide continuous base-load power with minimal visible and other environmental impacts. A geothermal system has a small ecological/carbon footprint and virtually no emissions, including carbon dioxide. Geothermal energy has significant base-load potential, requires no storage, and, thus, complements other renewables – solar (CSP and PV), wind, hydropower – in a lower-carbon energy future. Some developed countries have supported research for the development of EGS technology for 30 years. Commercial projects are currently either operational or under development in Australia, the USA and Germany. With technology improvements, the economically extractable amount of useful energy in this aspect could be increased greatly, thus making EGS sustainable for centuries. Realizing the potentials of EGS, many countries, such as the USA and Australia, have decided to invest more into research on EGS over the next few years. Furthermore, they also encourage companies to invest in this technology and develop prototype commercial-scale EGS.

4.2.4 A New Nuclear Energy System Although nuclear energy includes fission and fusion, the only commercially available energy in nuclear power plants at present is based on the former. The main problems for the exploitation of fission energy are the limited fuel reserves for fission power plants and the environmental impact of longlife nuclear waste. Developing a new nuclear energy system holds the key to the solution of the energy problem. Possible ways of extending fission development for several thousands of years is to use a fast breeder for better use of the existing fuel and finding a suitable way to processing long-life nuclear waste, · 102 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Nuclear Power Plant Technology Three generations of nuclear fission power plant technology have come into 4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 103 ·

Roadmap 2050

such as by using ADS or other methods. Fusion is a very attractive nuclear energy with unlimited natural resources. The ways to realize the controlled nuclear fusion include magnetic confined fusion (MCF) and inertial confined fusion (ICF). Main developed countries pay a lot of attention to development the new nuclear energy, such as the development of a generation IV (G-IV) fission power plant, including different fast breeders by using helium and Na/ Tb as coolant. The development of G-IV fission power plants will lead to a demonstrative power plant to be operational in the period between 2025 and 2030. The scientific demonstration of MCF has been done for the past 50 years. The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project has been started through international cooperation. National inertial fusion (NIF, a US laser project) is at the end of its construction and will start operation in 2010. A project for processing fission waste also started many years ago and a roadmap for its further development has been blueprinted. Recent efforts for speeding up Chinese nuclear energy in the near future mainly include a new national key project for an advanced large-size pressurewater fission reactor and a high temperature gas cooling reactor, continued implementation of the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) national facility, and the participation (with 10% contribution) of the ITER project. There are urgent needs for China to plan for research into a demo faster breeder, nuclear waste processing and advanced inertial fusion approaches. Through a wide range of international cooperation and further independent development, the development of a fast breeder will be on a faster track. In the meantime, a new project for processing the nuclear waste should be launched. The main methods are nuclear separation and implantation. The accelerator-based implantation and fission-fusion hybrid approaches could be feasible for China. It is expected to develop key technologies and build testing and demo devices in this aspect within 20 years, and to put them into practice by around 2030. Further R&D for new inertial fusion energy should be considered, such as laser fusion, heavy ion accelerator and Z-pinch. Key technologies in this regard are to develop reliable, stable and high efficiency drivers. The key physics here is to understand the properties of high density materials. It should be encouraged to find new ways for sustaining a stable, continuous, long-life and high-efficiency operation with low-radiation requirement materials. Solutions to the commercial utilization of inertial fusion confinement should be found in the long run.

Roadmap 2050

being and the development of a fourth one is now under way. A fission power plant started operation in the 1950s, when the former Soviet Union built a 5 MW testing plant in 1954 and the USA built a 90 MW one in 1957. Based on principle demonstration, such a power plant was considered the generation I (G-I) nuclear fission power plant. In the late 1960s and the early 1970s, based on the G-I model, different configurations were introduced into new power plants. As such, reactors working on pressure water, boiling water and heavy water, with up to 300 MW installed capacity, were built. Most existing fission power plants operational in the world, at that time, were built around these period, and could be called G-II. In the 1990s, in a bid to eliminate the negative public influence of nuclear accidents at the Three Mile Island in the USA and the Chernobyl in the former Soviet Union, the world nuclear research community made significant efforts for safe operation of nuclear fission power plants. The USA announced “Advanced Pressure Water Power Plant User Requirements” and EU released the “Requirements for EU Pressure Water Power Plant Users” during this period. Any fission power plant meeting either of these two requirements is called a G-III power plant. The wellknown G-III power plants are, typically, AP-1000, ERP and Sytem80+. The G-IV fission power plant is a kind of advanced power plant with better safety, better economic competitiveness and non-proliferation of nuclear technology, representing the new development direction for the future. In 2001, headed by the USA, 10 countries set up the “G-IV Nuclear Energy International Forum”. In 2007, 19 countries including China set up the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Steering Group Action Plan to jointly develop a G-IV fission power plant and put it into operation by around 2030.

Nuclear Fusion Fusion refers to a potential source of secure, inexhaustible and environmentfriendly energy. Fusion research started some 50 years ago and significant progress has been made ever since. The difficulty of fusion is to produce hydrogen (D and T) gas under 100 million degrees Celsius to sustain fusion reaction in a controlled manner. After over 30 years of research and development, fusion research in China has entered a new era, which is marked by the successfully construction and operation of the world first fully superconducting tokomak EAST. In 2006, China joined the ITER project. By combining ITER and domestic fusion programs, China has started its plan for mastering the technology for the utilization of fusion power plant in the future.

4.2.5 A Marine Capacity Expansion Plan The ocean is the area of the most superficially known system on the earth surface by far. China is especially lagging far behind in this regard, which has greatly impeded the country’s exploration and utilization of the ocean, as evidenced in the followings: the ability of real-time, long-term, overall and synchronous observation on internal ocean is seriously weak, precise data · 104 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.2.6 Stem Cells and Regenerative Medicine Damage and failure of tissues or organs have been a big issue confronting human health, and the perfect restoration or the substitution of injured tissues or organs has always been a dream of mankind. Stem cells are multi-potent cells which can produce all the tissues and organs of the human body. Current progress in this research field and the prospects of using this technology as a basis for development of regenerative medicine provide the possibilities to make the dream come true. This area is likely to become a new mode of disease treatment, which, alongside medical treatment and surgery, is expected to expedite a medical revolution. Stem cell research is at a stage of rapid development nowadays. Major developed countries have made huge R&D investment in this field. For instance, $3 billion US dollars were invested in California, the USA, in 2004 to set up a regenerative medicine research institute. Immediately after being elected as the US president, Barrack Obama announced that the federal government would strongly support research in the study. Through its early strategic investment, Japan made leapfrog progress in only a decade, becoming a world leader in the field. Although some research progresses have been scored, China is still 4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 105 ·

Roadmap 2050

of observation on marine scope are heavily insufficient, and the integration ability of observational data from outer space, atmosphere, marine surface, marine bottom, and continent, is very low. The major reason of these problems is due to out-dated technologies and poorly-developed observation, research, methodology, and instrumentation platforms. At present, to access the marine field advantage, the USA, the UK, France, Germany, Russia, Japan and other countries build “digital sea” as the goal, putting in a lot of scientific and technological strength and financial resources. China must implement marine development projects as soon as possible to reverse the under-developed situation, and strive to take a leading role in the increasingly fierce competition in the globalization of the ocean. The main aspects of the marine capacity expansion plan should focus on: building a multiple dimensional real-time marine observation and research network (including sky-ocean observation, stationary and mobile underwater observation, deep-ocean work station, surface and underwater buoys and marine submersible vehicles), developing ocean-sky-land data integrating and processing systems (including marine basic databases, marine background and dynamic process models, dynamic simulation, virtual reality and visualization platform), and enhancing the capability of marine development and utilization (including marine resources utilization, marine ecological management, marine navigation safety, marine operation at a specific sea area, and hazard warning). Before 2020, to gradually expand towards all the national maritime territories and the exclusive economic zone; by around 2030, to expand outwards to the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean; and by around 2050, to cover the world’s high seas.

Roadmap 2050

weak and dispersive in terms of its research, lagging far behind the developed countries. Under this condition, it is imperative to make strategic planning in the form of a major research program at the national level. Major S&T problems in stem cell research lie in the self-renewal, directed differentiation and re-programming of somatic cells. How to implant stem cells to the human body in a safe, effective and economical way constitutes the major problem in regenerative medicine. Therefore, the core problems to be solved are the molecular principles of the self-renewal of stem cells, the bottleneck of stem cell propagation, exploration of the molecular regulation network for stem cell differentiation, technical problems regarding directed differentiation of stem cells, principles of re-programming somatic cells, establishing a specific pluripotent stem cell system for patients, solving immunological rejection in tissue and organ transplantation, exploration of the methods for safe implantation of stem cells, development of accurate somatic observation methods, and setup of evaluation methods for the restoration of in vivo functions. The objective is to make China a leading country in the field of stem cell research and regenerative medicine within a decade. To this end, it is expected for China to see clinical application of stem cell treatment in another 10 years, and wide application of stem cell-based regenerative medicine in the third decade.

4.2.7 Early Diagnosis and Systematic Intervention of Major Chronic Diseases China’s existing national research plans against major diseases are focused on therapeutic drugs as well as the prevention and treatment of major infectious diseases rather than chronic ones. The most effective and economical method for prevention and treatment of major chronic diseases lies in early diagnosis and systematic intervention, as determined by their characteristics. For instance, metabolic and neuro-degenerative disorders, as being evidenced by a continuous deterioration of people’s health, are mostly life-long diseases and difficult to be cured completely, with a poor prognosis, a significant danger of complications, and high death and disability rates. Systematic recognition of S&T problems is necessary for their early diagnosis and systematic intervention. At the molecular level, we have to find out the mechanism of interaction among various genes, proteins and small molecules. At the cell, tissue and organ levels, we have to explain the different forms presented by the diseases. At the population level, we have to study pathogenic factors among the Chinese people and their interactions. The followings are the key technologies for realizing early diagnosis of major chronic diseases: the identification of molecular markers for monitoring their occurrence and development, the development and improvement of animal chronic disease models with close relationships to the complicated system of the human body, the detection and authentication of gene polymorphisms · 106 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.3 Two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s National and Public Security 4.3.1 Space Situation Awareness Network(SSAN) The current ability of information acquisition from space could not satisfy the requirement of peaceful use of space and maintain national safety in aspects of swath-width, resolution, transmission rate, and all-weather, all-time, quasireal-time application. So, it is important to expedite the development of space situation awareness network. The space situation awareness network is an integrate technology system of sensing, monitoring, analysis, identification and pre-warning the space object, space environmental characteristics and its variation regularity. It includes the techniques of space situation awareness, space-based information network, information processing and transmitting. Space situation awareness technology mainly includes space object surveillance and space environment monitoring. The following techniques will be emphatically developed for model-building, prediction, prognosis and pre-warning: large aperture telescope, phased array radar, high precision orbit determination, space object identification, and solar inspection, space magnetic radiation detection, ionosphere exploration etc. Space information network technology mainly includes communication links by radio, microwave or laser which connect the information acquisition nodes. Information processing and transmitting technology mainly includes space-based distributed intelligent information processing system which processes the data obtained by various sensors in-orbit and provides the information quickly for users. Through about 10 years, break through the above key technologies. By 4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 107 ·

Roadmap 2050

and corresponding metabolic characteristics in Chinese population, and the introduction of new technologies and methods for early diagnosis. The key technologies for systematic intervention in major chronic diseases include: the development of new technologies and methods for the intervention based on traditional Chinese medicine and on nutrition sciences, and the establishment of a healthy data management system for Chinese people. We strive to realize, within 20 years, the early diagnosis and systematic intervention of major chronic diseases in China, and to carry out effective early supervision of the occurrence and development of chronic diseases based on the characteristics of the Chinese population, thus forming a basic network for intervention in chronic diseases. In this way, we can effectively delay the age at which major chronic diseases tend to occur and reduce their harmful impact on Chinese people.

Roadmap 2050

around 2030, build up an all-weather, all-time, high-resolution space situation awareness network, and realize information quasi-real-time application.

4.3.2 Social Computing & Parallel Management Systems ( PMS) The advent of the open-source intelligence era endows national sovereignty with new connotations, and national security faces great challenges, such as network development may lead to the “gamelization” of the world, that is the individual and non-governmental organizations can “gamely” cause severe damage to a sovereign country, as well as change the political and economic rules of the world. The ferment now in Greece is a strong corroboration. In May 2008, the U.S. government started a plan called “National Cyber Range” (NCR), whose core is the “super secret” “electronic Manhattan Project” implemented by the military, which is estimated to amount to 30 billion U.S. dollars, and strive to win the “Internet space race”. Along with the rapid development of China’s information network, an “Internet Chinese society” begins to take shape. How to conduct effective information collection, real-time analysis, fast and accurate large-scale dissemination and use, have become the major strategic issues connected to national security and competitiveness. Deployment in advance in those related technology issues, like Social Computing and Parallel Management Systems (PMS) is vital. Social Computing mainly makes use of open-source intelligence to do controllable and repeatable experiments on social issues, in order to achieve qualitative and quantitative assessment of the relevant decision-making plans and possible incidents. While Parallel Management Systems(PMS) makes use of the result of Social Computing to simulate and predict the occurrence and development process of real events, and form parallel artificial process, in order to achieve effective management and control of the events. The establishment of Social Computing and Parallel Management Systems(PMS) can achieve parallel interactions between real and virtual societies, which effectively support the Emergency Management in major emergencies and simulative pre-assessment of major policies, as well as researching & developing internet tools more advanced than Google’s, exploring integrated control and management systems more advanced than the ERP to improve production efficiency, management level and industrial competitiveness. After 5 years or so, we should strive to establish a complete scientific basis for Social Computing and Parallel Management Systems, and apply them in the field of public and national security; then after another 10 years, we should build a wide range application for them.

· 108 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.4.1 Exploration of Dark Matter and Dark Energy Cosmology has now entered into a new era of Precise Cosmology, thanks to the tremendous advances in astronomical facilities on the ground and especially in space over the past decade. The so-called “cosmological parameters” that we use to describe the geometry and dynamical evolution of the Universe have reached to a few percent precision in measurement, which helps make many of the remaining scientific problems readily solved in this regard. Unfortunately, however, our understanding of the Universe is still very limited. Recent astronomical observations have shown that the “ordinary matter” that we see and feel only accounts for 4% of the total matter-energy density of the Universe. The remaining 96% are dark matter (22%) and dark energy (74%). So far, we hardly know anything about the nature of dark matter and dark energy. Unveiling such a big mystery will undoubtedly lead to a new revolution in physics, marking a giant step forward in our understanding of the Universe. China should take this opportunity and make its own contributions to this great revolution of physics. To this end, it is imperative for China to construct a few key facilities for dark matter and dark energy studies, including new particle detectors in space or deep underground, as well as some large telescopes in regions like the Antarctica. Together with the new first-hand data acquired, these new facilities would enable China to play a leading role in the world.

4.4.2 Controlling the Structure of Matter Together with the observation of numerous novel states of matter and other quantum phenomena, the quantum mechanics, as one of the two most influential scientific discoveries of the 20th century, have tremendously promoted our understanding of the structure of matter, making fundamental contributions to high-tech development in the 20th century. However, people still remain at the stage of ‘observing’ and ‘explaining’ the unusual phenomena in Nature. Now, we are standing at a completely new starting point of the ‘Control Age’. Based on a precise observation and deep understanding of the microscopic world, the manipulation of atoms, molecules, even electrons, as constituent parts of matter can be materialized step by step. Crystals can be grown atom by atom, molecule by molecule; single electrons, single photons and single spins can be produced, detected and manipulated; new materials can be designed and synthesized according to needs; interactions between microscopic particles can be regulated to affect emergent properties of matter, like superconductivity, superfluidity, colossal magneto-resistance and colossal electro-resistance. The focal points of such a study include: manipulation of single quanta, control of small quantum systems, control of quantum condensates, ultra4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 109 ·

Roadmap 2050

4.4 Four Basic Science Initiatives Likely to Make Transformative Breakthroughs

Roadmap 2050

intense and ultra-fast laser light and its precision measurement, quantum information and quantum computation, as well as the exploration of new materials, new phenomena and new carriers of information. This will be a new leap forward in our understanding of the material world, and subsequent breakthroughs will open a new horizon for the development of energy, information and materials sciences. Its importance is on a par with that of the discovery of quantum mechanics and informatics to the information revolution in the 20th century. China has to seize this strategic opportunity and timely work out a plan for the development of advanced light sources, neutron sources, facilities for creating extreme conditions (ultra low temperature, ultra high pressure, ultra strong electric/magnetic field, etc.) and precise nano-fabrication. By focusing on important strategic directions, selecting the best researchers, and providing sustained support, China is expected to join the rank of advanced countries in this aspect in 5 to 10 years, and to make important original discoveries in another 5 to 10 years, taking up a leading position in the anticipated new technology revolution.

4.4.3 Artificial Life and Synthetic Biology The recent introduction of the concept of “artificial life” and the significant progress in the scientific theory and technology for the emerging discipline of synthetic biology have suggested the great potential of this exciting cuttingedge breakthrough in life sciences. The synthetic research approach recognizes that life is operated dynamically within the harmoniously integrated living organisms. Thus, scientists and engineers have to cross uncharted terrain to develop the solution to the unscripted problems, e.g., origin of life, which are not normally solved through either observation or analysis. Motivated by the milestone successes achieved in the field over the last few years, pioneering scientists have quickly fostered this new research discipline to introduce a new strategy for exploring the origin and evolution of life on the earth with a holistic approach. This strategy offers new hopes for seeking a more comprehensive and integrated unbiased solution, in addition to the historical contributions made by the discoveries of paleontologic fossils, molecular evolution analysis of the “living fossils”, ecological studies of extreme environment that resembles the prehistorical earth conditions, and the search for outer space life. As a scientific discipline, synthetic biology is established on the basis of the theory of bioinformatics and systems biology as well as the techniques of genomics and bioengineering and with the objective of resolving key problems in life sciences, such as the creation of artificial life. This research mainly focuses on elucidating the properties of simple lives, synthesizing single-cell organisms and creating a “cell factory” or “molecular machine” for research and other applications. It also helps to investigate the mechanisms of differentiation and evolution of complex living systems, decipher the interaction between environment and genes in the process of evolution and, finally, understand the programming and reprogramming mechanisms of cells in advanced organisms · 110 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.4.4 A Mechanism of Photosynthesis Photosynthesis is a process by which a photosynthetic organism utilizes solar energy to drive the synthesis of organic compounds and release of molecular oxygen with the inorganic carbon dioxide and water as the basic substrates. Photosynthesis provides, directly or indirectly, the sources of organic compounds, energy and oxygen required for the survival of virtually all life on earth. Breakthroughs in understanding the mechanism of photosynthesis will not only largely improve the conversion efficiency of light energy and boost the productivity of crops and plants but also have a revolutionary impact on solar-powered photobiological production of clean fuels, mimicking the photosynthetic mechanisms and finding the new pathway of harnessing solar energy as well as fulfilling the sustainable development in agriculture and renewable energy supply. Photosynthesis is a light-driven process in which water is split into electrons, protons and oxygen under normal temperature and atmospheric pressure. In the photosynthetic membrane, the efficiency of energy transfer is up to 94%–98% while the quantum yield of light energy conversion in the reaction center is nearly 100%. The key scientific questions in this field are to elucidate the molecular and regulatory mechanisms involved in efficient light energy absorption, conversion and transfer, and the metabolic network and regulatory factors of carbon assimilation. The key technical questions are 4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 111 ·

Roadmap 2050

in order to use these rules in artificial modification of life, e.g., embryonic stem cells and induced pluripotent stem cells. Therefore, breakthroughs in the platform techniques, such as the synthesis and characterization of biological building blocks, the integration of systems biology data to modeling reproduction and metabolism network, are both essential and critical. In addition, much more attention should be paid to issues concerning artificial life research, such as its philosophy and methodology, its ethical, legal and social aspects, as well as its bio-safety and environmental effects. Although initiated only recently, synthetic biology has developed swiftly. In China, it is advisable for the government to make timely planning for studies focusing on optimal and practical aims. In general, a high-throughput platform should be set up promptly for molecular building block synthesis, biological molecule structure resolution and physiological/metabolic network analysis. In addition, reconstruction of designed biological systems (molecular machine or cell factory) should be implemented within the schema of “engineering” and optimized via evolution both in silico and in vivo/in vitro. Thus, a series of creative and original findings should be achieved. Research in this field in China is expected to be among the best in the world in 5 to 10 years. Achievements in this field will not only greatly improve our knowledge about natural laws and rules, but also significantly foster new methods, new techniques and new “strains and germ lines”, which in turn will strongly promote the socio-economic development in this country.

Roadmap 2050

to seek the potential of light energy absorption, conversion and transfer, and specific functional genes involved in the regulation of light energy utilization and conversion, to improve the photosynthetic efficiency of a crop by genetic modification as well as creating and designing of both biological and biomimetic devices for solar energy conversion. Research in photosynthesis has intensively attracted scientists and many governments across the world. As early as in 2002, the USA set the goals for the coming 20 years to significantly increase photosynthetic efficiency of light energy utilization, and designed the accordant roadmap up to 2030. The photosynthetic research in China is generally plagued by a big gap compared to the developed countries. Although the Chinese government has set scientific plans in this area, its support is obviously insufficient. It is necessary to concentrate our resources to tackle this problem directly, thus to make breakthroughs in fundamental research and practical applications. China’s objectives in this field are to improve the efficiency of light energy utilization by 10%–20% within the next 10 years, and to achieve scientific breakthroughs in understanding the molecular and regulatory mechanisms of photosynthesis within the subsequent 10 to 20 years. The long-term goal is to double the efficiency of light energy utilization of some main crops such as rice and wheat (including energy crops) in the following 20 to 30 years. In the field of solar-powered biofuel production, our objectives for the next 10 to 20 years are to increase the efficiency of photosynthetic hydrogen production and microalgae-based biofuels, to design biological solar cells, and to develop novel concepts, technologies, methods and models based on the independent intellectual properties.

4.5 Three Emerging Initiatives of Cross-disciplinary and Cutting-edge Research 4.5.1 Nano-science and Technology With their significant potential impact on future S&T and economic development, nano-science and technology have become a frontier and hotspot area of strategic importance to high-tech contention in today’s world. The core S&T problems in this field include: complicated physical, chemical and biological phenomena in nano-scale; multi-scale and multi-property synergistic effects in the macro-materials or macro-systems with nano-structures; and a nano-system and its connected interface. The studies in this field are given high priority in China. In the 11th Five-year Plan period (2006–2010), for instance, a key program has been conducted on nano research. At present, these studies in China have developed rapidly with an overall academic build-up to the world advanced level. In the future, priority in this field should be given to research into the new phenomena, new effects and new applications in nano-scale in · 112 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

4.5.2 Space Science and Exploration Satellite Series Space science is an interdisciplinary research field dealing with natural phenomena and their laws in physics, astronomy, chemistry, and life sciences which occur in solar-terrestrial space, interplanetary space and the Universe, taking a spacecraft as its main working platform. Space science has rapidly developed and several hundreds of space science satellites and deep space probes have been sent off since the first man-made satellite was launched by the former Soviet Union in 1957. Besides, Several Nobel Prizes have been awarded to scientists who conduct scientific research with space exploration data. Since the blast-off of its first man-made satellite in April 1970, China has grown into a major space country, but not a space power. Especially in the field of space science, it still has a long way to go. Most of the major space countries in the world have a medium or long-term development plan in the field. China has to change its current situation featuring a lack of first-hand exploration data, and strive to establish space science satellite series, promote the leap-frog development of space science and technology, which are regarded as a strategic and precursory high-tech field. Planning for space science satellite series should be made in accordance with research priorities. A spare astronomy satellite series is to be established to boost the research into the origin of the Universe, black holes, dark matter and dark energy. A satellite series for the exploration of solar system (including geo-space) and earth observation is to be established for the research into the sun, planets, solar wind and its interaction with earth and global change. A recoverable satellite series for micro-gravity and space life science is to be established for the studies on laws concerning the motion and activity of matter and life in the space environment and on the origin of life. In order to maintain sustainable development in this aspect, it is advisable to build 1 to 2 satellites per series during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011–2015), and 2 to 3 satellites per series during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016–2020).

4.5.3 Mathematics and Complex Systems The basic task for studies of complex systems or the science of complexity 4 Twenty-two S&T Initiatives of Strategic Importance to China’s Modernization

· 113 ·

Roadmap 2050

physical, biological and engineering fields. Major efforts should be made to make clear such fundamental processes as the growth, assembly, evolution of the materials in nano-scale and their interactions with biological systems. This understanding will be conducive to the cultivation of a capacity for nanomaterials development, nano-structure design and building, and the discovery of related new functions starting from atoms and molecules, so as to promote the application of nano-science and technology in various sectors ranging from communication, energy, manufacturing to health and the environment. With the objective of making leap-frog development in this important field, it is advisable for the government to keep on its support to the studies in the form of a key research program.

Roadmap 2050

is to seek the basic principles behind various kinds of complex systems. Research on complex systems is inter-disciplinary and global in nature, and as a consequence, any essential progress in this field will help solve bottleneck problems in many other areas. Complex systems under study include complex systems formed in the evolution of natural phenomena, social complex systems, engineering complex systems, and the field that deals with a wide arrange of science disciplines, such as mathematics, natural sciences, engineering, economics, management science, the humanities and social sciences. The key research problems include: major open problems in pure mathematics and interdisciplinary studies of mathematics, systems science, along with other areas of natural sciences, engineering and technology, as well as social sciences. More precisely, major efforts should be made in: the study of important mathematical physics equations; multi-scale modeling and computation of complex systems; machine intelligence and mathematics mechanization; theories and methods for stochastic structures and data; collective behaviors of multi-agent complex systems, their control and intervention; complex stochastic networks; complex adaptive systems, etc. Due to its fundamental importance, the Chinese government should provide sustained and steady support for the research of complex systems so as to achieve major accomplishments in this important field.

· 114 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

At the joint session of the general assemblies of CAS and CAE held in June 2008, Chinese President Hu Jintao pointed out that we must “resolutely embark on a road of S&T innovation with Chinese characteristics.” So far, China has blazed a path of development with unique features in many aspects, such as the socialist democratic political system with Chinese characteristics; economic growth where the market plays a primary role under government macroregulation; and cultural development in which the succession of traditional Chinese civilization is combined with the assimilation of outstanding cultural legacies of the world. As to S&T development, however, China is generally a follower and an imitator. Without distinctive features, we have not yet found a path that is in accordance with the laws of S&T development and suited to China’s national conditions. The history of world S&T development shows that the transition from imitation to innovation has been experienced by many countries. Nevertheless, this dramatic change could not occur spontaneously. Those successful in this conversion have taken the initiative in exploring the approaches for these changes in line with their respective reality and development stages. To maintain their success, these countries readjust their national strategic priorities and orientations for S&T innovation, make a systematic and foresighted arrangement of their S&T layout, and reform their institutional mechanisms and systems in a timely manner. The main measures adopted by these countries for such a transition include: - Laying emphasis on basic and frontier studies of vital importance to long-term development and on high-tech innovation of strategic significance for national interests and security when making governmental funding plans; - Putting forth efforts on developing an institutional and cultural setting in favor of innovation and entrepreneurship, selectively nurturing enterprises’ capabilities in technological innovation and competitiveness, and encouraging and supporting innovative activities that meet the country’s development needs and are compatible with the country’s natural endowment; and - Attaching importance to renovating educational philosophy,

Roadmap 2050

5

S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

Roadmap 2050

restructuring the national education system, nurturing a sense of innovation among young people, improving their innovative capabilities and spirit of creativity, and developing a first-class innovative and enterprising workforce. To embark on a road of S&T innovation with its own characteristics, China has to face a strategic transformation from imitation to innovation. Due to its uniqueness in national reality, developmental stage, historical background and cultural context, China should draw experience from, rather than simply copy, the S&T development mode in other countries. While aiming high at science frontiers, S&T innovation should by no means blindly follow the suite of developed countries. Instead, China must take a new development road of its own in light of the development process of its modernization drive. The eight basic and strategic systems for socio-economic development, which is required by China’s modernization drive, clarify the focus of its future S&T development. To achieve the objectives of the eight systems, a roadmap has been worked out for S&T development in major areas. It spells out the strategic priorities, major tasks and possible routes for China’s S&T development to 2020, 2030 (2035) and 2050 respectively. Following the roadmap effectively will enable China to gain the initiative in the new round of S&T revolution and achieve the transition from imitation to innovation, which will provide a powerful support to China’s modernization efforts. To explore a road of S&T innovation with Chinese characteristics, we must adopt the following approaches: relying on domestic efforts and effectively integrating the global innovation resources in line with opening to the outside world; assembling and cultivating talented people via innovation practice in line with the principle of putting people first; integrating the market’s primary role and the government’s macro-regulation based on China’s reality; ensuring division of labor as well as cooperation among stakeholders of the national innovation system in line with deepening reform; and promoting S&T innovation through management innovation in line with comprehensive planning.

To Build up an Innovation-driven Country Innovation here refers to an innovative activity in which the doers choose the objectives on their own, lead its process, enjoy its property rights and utilize its major results. Innovation capacities mainly include the capacities for developing S&T productivity, renovating systems and institutions, cultivating an innovative culture, creating demand and a market, and effectively integrating innovation factors across the world. In the new century, the major powerhouse for socio-economic growth is rapid S&T development and global innovation activities. Building an innovation-driven country has become a major strategic option of many countries, and S&T innovation

· 116 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

5.1 Relying on Domestic Efforts and Effectively Integrating the Global Innovation Resources in Line with Opening to the Outside World As China’s modernization drive is carried out under the scenario of the opening-up and globalization, we must maintain an open attitude towards all the knowledge created worldwide. Making full use of the global innovation resources should serve as a starting point of our innovation and leapfrog growth, and an important foundation for innovation. We must guard against taking innovation as China’s closed efforts from the world reality, and restraining ourselves from being “large and all-inclusive” or “small and all-inclusive.” 5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 117 ·

Roadmap 2050

capacities have become a core factor for developing such kind of countries. An innovation-driven country with Chinese characteristics should be a country with strong innovation capacities, high innovative benefits, a stimulating innovation environment and a large number of innovative talents. Strong innovative capacities mean: - being very capable of making original science innovations, taking the initiative in the rapid S&T progress and revolution, and handling dramatic changes properly; - being competent to make innovations in critical core technologies and to steadily gain the upper hand in the increasingly fierce global competition in the fields of the economy, science and technology and in military revolution; - having a strong ability for systematic integration of innovations as well as for technology introduction, assimilation and re-innovation, and being able to effectively absorb global innovation resources in an open environment; and - developing a scientific and systematic understanding of China’s natural environment and basic reality, and achieving sustainable social progress and harmonious development between man and nature. To have high innovation benefits requires introducing highly efficient and unblocked institutions for technology transfer and an effective mechanism for science communication, enabling the socio-economic benefits of S&T innovations to serve the interests of the people, and making important contributions to the development of advanced culture both in China and around the world. A benign innovation environment requires having advanced laws, policies and institutions fully in place, developing an advanced innovation culture and a social environment that encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, and an energetic innovation system tailored to China’s own features. To have a large number of innovative talents requires continuously fostering the development of innovation professionals so as to bring up the largest number of innovators and entrepreneurs in the world with strong competitive strength and sustainable innovation capacity. They are important for continuously opening new horizons, setting up new industrial sectors and safeguarding and supporting China’s socio-economic development in a sustainable, rapid and healthy way.

Roadmap 2050

Instead, we must continuously conduct foresighted studies to understand the general development trend in the world so as to broaden our strategic vision of S&T development. Focusing on the eight basic and strategic systems for socioeconomic development, we should work out a strategy for various major S&T fields and a clearer roadmap for S&T development. Efforts should be made to enhance international S&T exchanges and cooperation. We have to promote high-level bilateral or multilateral collaborations in an all-round and multi-layered way by adhering to the principle of “self-reliance, win-win cooperation, focusing on frontiers, keeping in view of long-term development, laying stress on key points and emphasizing practical results.” We should absorb various S&T innovation resources across the world, and selectively bring in professionals, intellectual resources, technologies and management so as to upgrade the national innovation capacity, and make China an active participant of international S&T cooperation, a leader and core player in regional S&T cooperation, and an influential member of international S&T organizations. We must be clearly aware that original innovation is the source of a country’s international competitiveness. Key technologies of strategic significance can never be bought from the outside world. In order to dramatically reduce the country’s reliance on imported technologies, upgrade its innovation capacity and gradually gain the strategic initiative in this aspect, we must put into practice the policy mainly relying on our own efforts in real earnest, and make national strategic arrangements on key S&T issues in major areas that have a clear development route and critical bearings on national progress or security. Energetic efforts should also be made to: launch twenty-two S&T initiatives of strategic importance; overcome technological bottlenecks; plan important projects of basic research; strengthen innovation of precursory technologies; intensify the digestion, assimilation and reinvention of introduced technologies; and improve the mechanism for technology transfer, brain flow and knowledge communication, and the industrial commercialization of S&T achievements. While gradually expanding its economic scope, upgrading its industrial structures and increasing its foreign trade volume, China is likely to face the increasingly acute international competition. To address these challenges, preparation should be made to improve the national strategy for intellectual property rights, and to actively take part in the formulation and revision of relevant international statutes. We must pool cutting-edge forces throughout the country to support enterprises in key technology innovations and to raise their international competitiveness so as to help them speed up the transformation of their products from aiming at a low-end market all the way to a high-end one. We have to create innovation-driven business giants noted for international competitiveness. We should also improve China’s comprehensive capacity in technology innovation through fostering a great number of small and mediumsized innovative enterprises. · 118 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

The S&T cooperation agreement concluded in 1974 between CAS and the Max Planck Society (MPS) pioneered China’s efforts to open to the outside world. On January 21, 1978, China and France signed a bilateral agreement on S&T cooperation, and in the same year, an official S&T delegation from China visited the former Federal Republic of Germany. In January 1979, during his trip to the USA, Mr. Deng Xiaoping inked a Sino-US agreement on S&T cooperation, opening the door for international S&T collaboration in China. By 2008, China had forged S&T cooperation ties with 152 countries and regions across the world. It has not only played an active and important role in many international science programs, but piloted a number of scientific initiatives such as the international cooperation programs on traditional Chinese medicine and on new and renewable energy sources. As a member of over 1,000 international S&T organizations, China now boasts 206 of its scientists working as leaders at various levels in 350 of those organizations. With an expanding scope and rising influences, China is regarded as a partner and participant of global S&T cooperation on equal terms. Accessed from: http://kaifangzhan.mofcom.gov.cn

Cooperation between CAS and MPS In 1974, Prof. Reimar Lüst, then President of MPS made his first visit to the People’s Republic of China, hence opening the door to the scientific cooperation between MPS and CAS. With support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation four years later, CAS sent its first batch of visiting scholars to Germany since the beginning of the reform and opening-up of China. Soon in 1985, the two sides decided to establish a Sino-German guest laboratory on cell biology at the CAS Institute of Cell Biology (now part of the Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology under the Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, CAS), representing a novel approach of open and exchange in scientific partnership. In the 1990s, in a bid to promote China’s science reform and to foster young outstanding scholars, CAS established 9 MPS/CAS Independent Junior Research Groups and 15 MPS/CAS Partner Groups by using the experience of the MPS Junior Groups. The researchers with these groups are all promising young scientists recruited internationally. The first Junior Research group was headed by Prof. PEI Gang, who was later appointed the Director of the Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, CAS, and elected a CAS Member in 2001. The first Partner Group also outstood itself in the field of nano-material research with its pioneering work, and its head, Prof. LU Ke, was elected a CAS Member in 2003, the youngest one at that

5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 119 ·

Roadmap 2050

International S&T Cooperation under the Context of Opening-up to the Outside

Roadmap 2050

time. A new type of science institution, the Shanghai Institute for Advanced Studies made its debut in March 2002, aimed at promoting domestic and international multi-disciplinary collaboration and networking, and building up the creative thinking and capacity of young talents. The year 2005 later witnessed the launching of another novel fruit of the bilateral cooperation, the CAS-MPS Partner Institute for Computational Biology in Shanghai. In May 2004, at the occasion of the 30th anniversary of CAS-MPS partnership, President of the People’s Republic of China, Mr. Hu Jintao and then President of the Federal Republic of Germany, Mr. Johannes Rau both highly praised the great achievements scored by the cooperation. President Hu described the partnership as “one of the world’s most successful models of such cooperation” and President Rau commented that the joint initiatives and research projects by the two sides “have set standards for international scientific cooperation.”

5.2 Assembling and Cultivating Talents via Innovation Practice in Line with the Principle of Putting People First Modernization is a century-long dream cherished by the Chinese nation. China’s soaring development is opening up the vastest stage and most diversified opportunities for innovators and entrepreneurs in the world. At the same time, globalization has intensified the competition for top-ranking innovative people. The development of China’s talent pool does not satisfy its demand for building an innovation-driven country or coping with the imminent challenge posed by the new round of S&T revolution. This unsatisfactory situation is manifested in the following ways: 1) The human resource structure is irrational in China, as there is a shortage of leading scientists, elite experts and high-skilled technicians, as well as qualified engineers in enterprises. 2) Institutional barriers impair the effective brain flow, which calls for a new mechanism to ensure the ordered and optimal movement of various talents, and for the improvement of relevant legal statutes and the social security system. 3) China’s education system is unable to fulfill social demand for efficient allocation of education resources. It is still largely examination-oriented with insufficient attention paid to the cultivation of students’ overall quality, creativity and capabilities in handling practical issues. These factors do not help foster innovative talents and entrepreneurs. To address the situation, we must adopt forceful measures to attract and rally talented people via innovative endeavors, and to recognize and bring up talents in innovation practice. By doing so, a batch of world-class experts with both outstanding ability and integrity might make their debut, giving rise to a large and rationally-structured community of high-quality innovators. · 120 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 121 ·

Roadmap 2050

Fostering leading scientists. As leading scientists often determine the orientation and technical routes of innovations, they play a decisive role in the outcome of attempts at innovation. These S&T leaders, to a large extent, constitute the most important resources for a country or an organization, and embody their S&T levels. Based on the strategic research and implementation of the S&T roadmaps for priority areas, we shall sharpen the strategic insights and enhance the organizing ability of S&T experts, thereby nurturing them into strategists. We shall also reinforce the recruitment of high-caliber scientists and engineers amid the current upsurge in which overseas Chinese scientists are rushing back to open new career horizons. In addition, to cultivate leading scientists, we will also beef up the establishment of national talent-training centers. Training qualified engineers for industry. Taking advantage of the industry-academia partnership, colleges and research institutes should be supported to educate technicians or host training programs to update their professional expertise. Senior specialists should be encouraged to join industrial sectors, while enterprises should be promoted to support engineering education in universities and colleges. At the same time, the research sector should set up more internship and post-doctoral programs at enterprises. In this way, a synergistic industry-academia partnership will be formed to jointly foster talents. Energetically upbringing young talents. Full of vigor, potential and passions for innovation, young people have historically achieved major breakthroughs and are the future of S&T development. Therefore, we shall strongly emphasize the cultivation of young talents in accordance with the law of professionals’ development. To this end, we will reshape various national programs for supporting young S&T workers in light of their age groups and growth phases. We shall also strengthen the support of young people in the existing S&T programs, so as to upgrade their creativity and competitiveness and help them rapidly assume the role of innovator. At the same time, we need to assist them to foster a sense of patriotism, mission and social responsibility. Boosting education reform. Concrete efforts should be made to renovate the current exam-oriented schooling mode, update education philosophy, and promote educational equity. Education shall be forward-looking and take into consideration the future structural changes in industry and the job market at different stages of modernization. It should also satisfy the novel demand for talents in the drive to build an innovation-driven country with leapfrog S&T development. Based on this, China should systematically restructure its education and curriculum systems, and renovate the content, methods, techniques and modes of teaching, so as to prepare qualified workers and innovators for China’s modernization. We will also enhance basic education to improve public science and cultural literacy; support vocational education to foster technicians and skilled workers; and promote higher learning to develop a sense of innovation and innovation capacities, and strive to establish a national

Roadmap 2050

system for lifelong learning suited for the knowledge-based economy. Creating an environment for competitive development. An effective way to maintain social justice, competition is also conducive to diverting innovation resources to outstanding talents and making good use of abilities and wisdom of all kinds of people. Therefore, we shall launch a reform of the traditional personnel system. First of all, to ensure the success of this reform, human resources management should follow the principle of rule of law instead of rule of administrators, thereby giving free rein to the essential role of the market in human resources allocation and assuring the rights of employers to make their own decisions. Second, efforts should be made to develop an institutional system that emphasizes competitive selection, puts performance first while pays due attention to fairness, and that is conducive to the effective brain flow and the application of their expertise. It also requires a salary system that objectively and fairly highlights the innovation and market values of scientists. Third, a scientific and impartial evaluation system should be in place. While giving priority to merit-based evaluation, classified assessment should be tailor-made for professionals in different fields, of diversified categories and at various levels. An institution should be introduced to check the qualification and integrity of evaluators. Last but not least, we should wipe away the institutional barriers for brain flow among different regions, sectors or departments, speed up the development of a social security system, and set up a mechanism for the ordered circulation, role change, dynamic flow and optimum distribution of talents, so as to form a scientific and rational macrostructure for talent management.

Three-wave Principle of the S&T Professionals Creativity and age prove to be closely related. At the annual Working Meeting of CAS in 2006, CAS President Yongxiang Lu presented a Three-wave Principle of the S&T Professionals. The first wave refers to young scholars under the age of 35. Generally in the career stage between being doctoral students and five to seven years after receiving doctoral degrees, these people display high innovation enthusiasm and creativity, and dare to challenge authority, and thus become a new vital force for scientific research and a reserve for the innovative backbone of the nation. They should not be simply treated as research assistants. Stressing training, we should encourage them to develop original scientific theories and make technological innovations in key areas. While giving them necessary and sustained support, efforts should be made to attain their growth in a fully competitive environment. In order to bring forth their creativity, benign conditions and an agreeable environment should be

· 122 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Thousand-talent Program Sponsored by the Organizational Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, this program is aimed at competing for strategic scientists and outstanding talents to work for national key innovation programs, key disciplines and laboratories, state-owned enterprises, and national commercial and financial institutions, or to start their own businesses at high-tech development zones and other S&T parks, in line with the strategic goals for national development of China. Within 5–10 years since 2008, this program is to recruit and selectively support top-flight professionals who are able to make breakthroughs at the frontiers of vital technologies, and develop high-tech industries and emerging scientific fields. The program is also to establish a number of innovation bases and high-tech businesses for the high-level returned talents in qualified state-owned enterprises,

5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 123 ·

Roadmap 2050

created via various approaches, such as seed funding, post-doctoral or “contract by project” systems, relaxed requirements for academic titles and positions when filing for research projects, and opportunities for overseas studies or cooperative research. People in this “wave” are likely to consider changing jobs in search of greener pastures. Efforts should be made to set up standardized mechanisms for personnel turnover, appointment and promotion. Outstanding people should be advanced to senior positions in time. The second wave refers to those in the age group from 36 to 55. They are mainstay researchers mostly with senior academic titles. Focusing on upgrading their scholarship and capacities, we should trust them to undertake major S&T tasks. We should also see to it that their arts of leadership in S&T innovation and their strategic viewpoint keep improving, so as to prepare them for academic pacesetters or major research project leaders. Tenured positions might be offered to those of outstanding ability. Top caliber S&T professionals mostly emerge from this “wave.” However, the annual turnover rate in this stage should be kept at 5% to 10%. A rational brain flow will facilitate academic upgrading and personnel structure optimization. The third wave refers to the S&T professionals beyond the age of 55. As most of them have passed the peak period of innovation, their advantages of a good grounding and rich experience should be given into full play. For those on the tenured track, efforts should be made to bring their leading role into full play and enable some of them to become S&T strategists. For the other people, channels should be widened for them to be engaged in such work as technology transfer, training and science popularization. The boundaries of the three “waves” should not be rigidly defined by age. The basic idea behind the principle is to fully tap the potentials of people in different age groups and with various strengths. The objective is to introduce a mechanism for the orderly flow of S&T professionals and their dynamic upgrading and optimization, keeping the team active and rationally structured.

Roadmap 2050

universities, scientific research institutions and national high-tech development zones, so as to promote the partnership between enterprises, universities and research institutions. By tentatively implementing some internationally prevailing mechanisms for scientific research, S&T development and business promotion, this program is expected to compete for a large number of outstanding talents and innovation teams from abroad into high-tech businesses in China. Before this program, China’s large-scale talent schemes mainly included the Hundred-talents Program sponsored by CAS since 1994 and the Yangtze River Scholar Award Program sponsored by the Chinese Ministry of Education. These programs have ever since successfully recruited about 4,000 talented people. Accessed from: http://renshi.people.com.cn/GB/139629/8642222.html

Personnel System Reform under the Knowledge Innovation Program Contact by position: A new employment contract system was adopted within CAS in 1999. Featuring “setting up positions in light of need, recruiting staff to fill those positions, appointment through competition and retaining the best,” the system was introduced into all CAS institutes during the early years of the Knowledge Innovation Program. On the basis of condensing objectives and restructuring the portfolio of academic disciplines, CAS institutes slashed the number of job positions by two thirds with at least 20% of the new jobs open to society. The traditional ranking approach of granting academic titles without consideration of the availability of corresponding job positions was replaced by a new system integrating the two in 2001. Contract by project: A system of fix-term project-based contract was spelled out in CAS Trial Measures Concerning Contract by Project at the Full Implementation Phase of the Knowledge Innovation Programs. Issued in 2001, the document explains that this system is devised for temporary positions for specific research or managerial tasks. People on this track do not take up the job positions authorized by the central authorities. Their personnel files and social insurance are managed by intermediary services, and their wages are covered by the budgets of the relevant projects. This system is applicable to post-doctoral scholars, alleviating the contradiction between the limited size of the authorized payroll and the increasing demand for human resources due to rapid S&T development. A novel salary system: In line with the principle of “putting performance first while paying due attention to fairness,” CAS put forward, in 1999, a triple-structured salary system, which includes base wage, position allowance, and performance premium. In 2000, an annual salary system for legal bodies of CAS institutes was introduced on a trial basis. Under this system, the salary of these legal bodies is made up of two parts: base salary and performance premium. The former depends on job positions and responsibilities and the latter on the accomplishment of objectives and achievements.

· 124 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Source: CAS Bureau of Planning and Strategy. 2007. Considerations on Human Resource Management of CAS (in Chinese). Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 22(5)

5.3 Integrating the Market’s Primary Role and the Government’s Macro-regulation in Line with China’s Reality In the context of a socialist market economy, the allocation of S&T resources in China manifests two characteristics: a diversifying trend of S&T investment, and increasing prominence of the underlying role of the market and the principle of competitive selection. By no means are we to simply follow the rut created during the period of a planned economy, when a rigid plan dominated everything, including S&T research, fund appropriation, and achievements and personnel management. Efforts should be made to correct the tendency of following the approach of the planned economy when implementing the current national S&T programs. Moreover, we need to explore new thoughts and new methods to effectively put into play the macroguiding role of the national S&T programs, and to put into practice the S&T roadmaps for priority areas. In the correlation between S&T progress and socio-economic development, there exists a value chain of innovation. From knowledge innovation to social wealth generation, this chain generally threads the following links: curiosity-driven studies, oriented basic research, applied basic research, high-tech development, product innovation, process innovation, marketing and capital management. Values are realized through the exchanges between these links. Along the chain from free exploration to capital management, the influence from governmental guidance gradually weakens while the underlying role of the market strengthens. We need to renovate the current mode for S&T resources allocation, integrating the guiding functions of the government with the underlying role of the market. To achieve this goal, first, we need to increase the S&T investment from the government. In review of the structural changes of gross domestic 5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 125 ·

Roadmap 2050

Diverting people to other posts: To address the problem of staff members who fail to retain a post during the personnel and logistics reforms within the academy, CAS presented, in 2001, CAS Outlined Action Plan for S&T Workforce and Education Development at the Full Implementation Phase of the Knowledge Innovation Program. The document stipulates that the number of CAS staff without a job position should decrease each year, with an objective of reducing the number by 70% in five years, and all of them should be transferred to new posts within 10 years. At the same time, it also specifies that the elimination rate of those with a contact by employment should be at least 10% every two years.

Roadmap 2050

expenditure on R&D (GERD) in developed countries over the past years, a gradual transition has taken place from the dominance of governmental funding for R&D endeavors to that of enterprises. Its turning point generally occurs at the late period of the second stage of a country’s industrialization or when its ratio of GERD to GDP goes beyond 2%. Currently, China’s industrialization process is roughly in the late years of its first stage while the GERD only accounts for 1.49% of its GDP. Therefore, the government’s S&T appropriation should assume the lion’s share during the current stage and for a relatively long period in the future. Since 1990, however, from the perspective of GERD by source of funds, the proportion of R&D funds from the government has kept decreasing. At present, it only accounts for some one third of the GERD. It is advisable for the government to further increase its appropriations for S&T undertakings, and gradually raise its percentage in this aspect to somewhere between 40% and 50% of total national investments. Second, when making S&T investments, the central government should give priority to the strategic areas having a critical bearing on the overall development of the country and the S&T undertakings that benefit the public welfare and the fundamental research at the disciplinary frontiers, and render S&T support to the eight basic and strategic systems for national socioeconomic development. Via direct government funding, China is to maintain its investment to the prestigious national institutions for scientific research and universities, to optimize its disciplinary portfolio and regional S&T deployment through timely adjustments, and to construct national S&T platforms open to the public. In this way, we will be able to lay a solid basis for sustained and steady S&T development of this country, and to foster a galaxy of innovative talents and entrepreneurs. With the initiation of various national R&D projects, it is hoped to rally and concentrate various S&T resources in search of the solutions to some strategic issues significant for the modernization of China. In addition, we would be able to make breakthroughs in vital technologies, to raise the international competitiveness of China’s enterprises; to solve S&T problems to the benefits of the people’s livelihood and the integration of production, education and research; to tackle the common technical posers baffling the progress of industry; to help the enterprises to consciously assume the role of the main innovation player; to embody the idea of “being pulled by national demand”; and to support the socio-economic development. Third, the S&T investment from local governments should be focused on fostering their core industrial competitiveness and sharpening their regional S&T cutting-edge, integrating various innovation resources, and making efforts to improve an environment for developing innovative clusters. Starting from the national blueprint for regional developmental strategy, developed coastal areas in eastern China should give their priorities to investing into high-tech and basic research crucial for local industrial upgrading and the development of knowledge economies in these areas. In addition, they should also pay more attention to research in the fields of resources, the environment, population and · 126 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

5.4 Ensuring Division of Labor and Cooperation among Stakeholders in the National Innovation System in Line with Deepening Reform More drastic measures should be introduced to reform China’s existing system of macroscopic S&T management, the root cause for many problems hampering its S&T development. With the objective of building an innovation-driven country and following the principle of “innovation, leap-frog development in selected fields, supporting development, and guiding future advancement,” we should spare no efforts to build up a national innovation system noted for accurate positioning, clear division of labor, competitive collaboration and efficient operation. This system should comprise the following components: a technological innovation system that is market-oriented and based on an industry-academia-university consortium with enterprises as the main player; a knowledge innovation system that combines scientific research with higher education; an S&T innovation system for national defense that integrate civil and military technologies; regional innovation systems highlighting different advantages; and a social and network system for S&T services. At present, priority should be given to system development for technology innovation and knowledge innovation with focus on capacity building and the eight basic and strategic systems for socio5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 127 ·

Roadmap 2050

public health. In northeast and central China, the S&T deployment should focus on relevant research realms conducive to the renovation and technical upgrade of the traditional industries and modernized farming practices. On the other hand, these regions should also invest into high-tech and basic research fields pertaining to the local development of knowledge economies. As for northwest region, the authorities should mainly support research activities related to ecoenvironment protection and the rational exploitation of natural resources. Fourth, we should put into play the underlying role of the market in resources allocation. To meet this goal, we need to accelerate the construction of an innovation-friendly market environment; to improve the laws and regulations aimed for promoting innovation and innovative enterprises, including a governmental procurement policy to encourage innovations; and to build an agreeable finance and policy environment for this sake. In addition, we have to set up a scientific and rational mechanism for the deployment of innovation-related resources so that they might funnel to research bodies noted for their superb innovative performance, powerful innovation capabilities and relatively high-level management, and the innovation activities could be fully rewarded in the market. Finally, it is also necessary to foster a community of consumers willing to accept innovative products and services, in a hope to make the innovation results benefit every walk of life in society.

Roadmap 2050

economic development. We should promote the major role of industry in the technological innovation system. Although being identified as the major investor and player of this system, Chinese enterprises still have a long way to go before they can really assume the roles. This is because, in the first place, they pay more attention to technology introduction than its adaptation and re-innovation, with heavy dependence on key know-hows from overseas and less core competencies of technological innovations of their own. Second, the inadequate development of venture capitals and intermediary services fall short in meeting the demand from new innovative endeavors. Third, spin-off firms from universities or research institutes are in urgent need of further development through stock rights diversification and economies of scale. In addition, the current financial and tax systems as well as financial policies fail to give priority to creating a market-oriented environment and inspiring more innovative successes. Furthermore, the imperfect laws and statutes on intellectual properties add to the potential risks of developing new technologies and the uncertainty of returns. Still, supportive services including government procurement, technology import management and financial services need to be greatly enhanced. We should develop a fair, rational and sound environment for market competition by formulating laws on technological innovation and commercial secrets and by promoting an institutional system of intellectual property protection and their technological transfer. The national policy system for innovation shall be improved via the adjustment of strategies and the combination of policies for science, technology and industries. A policy package should be applied to support innovation, optimize resource allocation in enterprises, open new investment and finance channels, improve the taxation system, promote government procurement, accelerate the transfer and spreading of generic technologies, develop new products and markets, and cultivate the capability for sustainable innovation. Efforts should be made to strengthen the partnership among universities, industries and research institutes. Both universities and research institutes should go on with the development and system integration of applied technologies, and the incubation of business, with industrial prospects. They should also consciously forge close links with production factors outside laboratory and realize technology transfer by using social resources. We shall encourage universities, research institutes and enterprises to join forces in setting up technology centers. We should do a good job in nurturing S&T intermediate agencies noted for professional services, social functions, network organization and standardized operation, so as to boost the efficiency of technology transfer and transformation and the flow and integration of innovation stakeholders. We should accelerate the establishment of a knowledge innovation system combining scientific research with higher learning. In a national innovation · 128 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Missions of a National Research Institution After a comprehensive analysis of the missions of national research institutions in developed countries, we can see that they share the following common features: - Conducting fundamental, strategic, and forward-looking or comprehensive research closely in line with national targets; - Paying attention to foresighted strategy studies and taking a leading role in domestic S&T innovation; - Attaching importance to the strategic S&T areas vital to national competitiveness upgrading and adjusting the S&T spectrum according to development needs in a timely manner; - Devoting attention to promoting the links between S&T innovation and the market, and providing knowledge, technologies and professionals for socioeconomic development; and - Giving priority to major S&T problems facing human existence and

5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 129 ·

Roadmap 2050

system, national research bodies are the backbone and pacesetter while universities play a fundamental and energetic role serving as a chief resource and platform of knowledge production. Although they are both assigned the dual function of S&T innovation and talent cultivation, the primary and core mission for national research institutions is S&T innovation while for universities, the focus is on talent training. In line with national strategic demand, we should encourage and support national research institutions to conduct fundamental studies, strategic high-tech development and system integration, projects concerning socioeconomic development in a coordinated and sustainable manner, and national strategic S&T tasks. They should also be promoted to cultivate high-caliber innovation talents. While supporting and guiding universities to do a good job in education, they should be encouraged to carry out the free exploration and render diverse services to the public, so as to push back frontiers of academic disciplines and lay a solid foundation for China’s S&T development. We have to bolster the mutual supplement and promotion, interactive collaboration and common development between universities and research bodies, and support their cooperation in S&T innovation and talent cultivation. By bringing graduate programs at research institutes into the national education system, and bringing S&T research at universities into the national S&T system, we will be able to enhance the partnership of universities and research institutions in addressing issues at the frontline of newly emerging science disciplines or interdisciplinary studies, and to facilitate the interaction of topranking scientists as well as the opening and sharing of major infrastructures for research and education purposes.

Roadmap 2050

development, and providing fundamental knowledge for human progress and sustainable development.

Mission of CAS As a national strategic S&T taskforce, CAS is committed to addressing fundamental, strategic, foresighted and systematic S&T problems that are of vital importance to the national interests and long-term development; fostering highlevel innovative professionals and entrepreneurs; promoting the transfer and commercialization of S&T achievements; taking the role of a national scientific thinktank; improving the international competitiveness of China in S&T undertaking; leading original innovation and S&T progress throughout the country; and supporting the country’s scientific and harmonious development. Regarding research positioning, S&T innovation activities at CAS mainly fall into three categories: basic research, research related to sustainable development, and strategic high-tech research. While being different in characteristics and value orientations, these three are closely related, interconnected and mutually supportive, therefore forming an advantage and a hallmark of the national innovation system. CAS seeks to strengthen such research and development activities that are difficult for universities to perform and as yet hard for enterprises to carry out In basic research, priority will be given to those studies oriented by national development objectives and major scientific goals. They should focus on major scientific issues that might trigger technology innovation and promote industrial development; emerging areas of interdisciplinary nature or at the S&T frontiers; and building an open S&T innovation platform to be shared by the entire S&T community, in particular, by relying on large science facilities. In research related to sustainable development, efforts will be made to: systematically understand the laws of life activities; develop bio-engineering and bio-technology; provide knowledge, technology and methodology for public health improvement and bio-industry development; and systematically enhance understanding of the relationship between the laws concerning resources, ecology and the environment and socio-economic development. This will provide fundamental, guiding and systematic cognition, data accumulation and solutions to major problems constraining China’s sustainable socio-economic development. In strategic high-tech research, exploration will focus on technologies that have a critical bearing on the country’s international competitiveness and national security, including major integrated innovations or systematic solutions, breakthroughs in crucial technologies, and technologies of guiding and strategic significance for China’s future development. Regarding its social functions, CAS strives to be a major advocate, practitioner and communicator for state-of-the-art scientific thoughts and ideas, a leading incubator and promoter for high-tech industries, a key pioneer and innovator for talent training via combining scientific research and education, and a principal fore-

· 130 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

5.5 Promoting Innovation through Management Innovation in Line with Integrated Planning S&T innovation is a social activity fully embodying the creativity of mankind. Therefore its management must follow its own developmental pattern, as well as the laws concerning social, economic and natural evolution. In China, S&T activities have long been taken as a social undertaking, which largely runs counter to the theory of “science and technology is the first productivity,” and practically fetters the sound development of S&T innovations. The 21st century has witnessed soaring S&T development, more diversified S&T innovations, and increasingly renovated S&T innovation patterns. This requires a constant innovation in management. S&T management involves various key links, including strategic planning, policy making, organization and enforcement, resource allocation, and consultation and evaluation. These links are relatively independent to each other, and mutually promotive and 5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 131 ·

Roadmap 2050

runner and vanguard in S&T reform. In terms of talent training, CAS strives to become China’s largest top-flight training center in natural sciences and high-tech development by bring into full play its advantages of closely combining S&T innovation with talent cultivation, giving priority to fostering S&T leaders, pacesetters and professionals with both ability and integrity in various fields, and by fully tapping the potentials of CAS as a national scientific research institution in talent training. Concerning high-tech industry promotion, CAS is to support the national efforts in industrial restructuring and upgrading and high-tech industry development by: giving full play to its role as a source of technology transfer and radiation; forging close cooperative ties with local governments and enterprises; cultivating new technologies and incubating high-tech enterprises; constructing technology transfer platforms to expand the value chain of innovation; and promoting the transfer and commercialization of S&T achievements. In the aspect of being a national think tank in science, the Academic Divisions of CAS, as a collective network of best scientists in China, is to hold up the banner of science and carry forward the scientific spirit. In light of the world trend of S&T development and major strategic demand of the nation, it will join hands with various strategic research systems both within and outside CAS to provide scientific consultation services and present strategic suggestions and foresighted studies independently, as well as disseminate knowledge, technology and scientific ideas and methods. In terms of international cooperation and exchanges, CAS endeavors to become a major representative of the Chinese S&T community in the world and upgrade the international impact of this community. Keeping that in mind, CAS is to effectively absorb and share global innovation resources, promote exchanges and collaborations with research institutes, universities and enterprises across the world, and conduct bilateral and multilateral strategic cooperation on innovation.

Roadmap 2050

restrictive. It is necessary to put them into unified planning so as to achieve overall advancement. At present, top priority should be placed on the macromanagement of S&T innovation. We should establish an efficient macro-management system of science and technology. Currently major problems in China’s S&T macro-management include the followings: Insufficient attention and reinforcement to strategic planning and policy making; unclear division of labor among different managerial departments; heavily overlapping orientation of multifarious S&T programs; dispersed and redundant allocation of limited S&T resources; largely under-funded individual research projects; a lack of necessary autonomy enjoyed by S&T project implementers; and ineffective consultation and evaluation. Further we should clarify and readjust the positioning of stakeholders. Government departments in charge of S&T advancement should strive to be the executive for strategic planning and policy making by focusing their attention on strategy development, policy optimization, and institution improvement and by freeing themselves from the administration of individual projects and tasks. The executive body for organization and enforcement should be the national scientific research institutions, research universities, research institutes under various departments and in various sectors, and enterprises. And the macroscopic allocation of resources should be left to the State financial and personnel administrations. The process of establishing a relatively independent system for S&T consultation and evaluation should be speeded up. To meet this goal, it is also advisable to put into full play the role of such national academic organizations like CAS, CAE, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the China Association for Science and Technology, to provide consultation services for national policy making concerning crucial S&T problems. It is also necessary to accelerate the establishment of a national evaluation procedure over key S&T plans and projects. We should coordinate S&T innovation of different nature across China and accelerate the establishment of a system for classified management. In handling different kinds of S&T endeavors such as fundamental research, strategic hightech research, studies for the public good, and technological development and application, varied management modes and policy orientation have to be introduced in the aspects of planning management, resource relocation, personnel management and evaluation, by breaking through the rigid approach of dealing with different S&T activities with the same management and policy tools. When addressing the strategic S&T problems relevant to the country’s overall development, it is advisable to adopt an approach of “work along both lines,” through the organization and implementation of State key and specially designed projects and through the strategic layouts made by national scientific research institutions. In order to enhance the innovation capabilities of industry and promote technological innovation and technology transfer, it is necessary to · 132 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 133 ·

Roadmap 2050

give a bigger role to the market as a regulator and to enterprises as a main player. Fundamental research at disciplinary frontiers should be conducted independently by universities and research institutions in an innovationfriendly environment and with reinforced stable financial support. We need to bring into full play the role of each element in line with the overall situation, and seek to form a combined force through the integration of government, industry, university, research institution and users. Efforts should be made to strengthen merit-based performance. The efficiency and benefits of scientific research activities should be enhanced through regular assessment in light of the objectives of a program; compressive employment of administration, resources allocation and policy guidance; and optimum distribution of personnel, funding and equipment. Transitions should be made in science evaluation, from the practice laying stress only on research papers and awards to approaches also giving importance to innovative contributions, innovation levels, qualities and development trends; and from a one-sided emphasis on peer review to an equal stress on the contributions of research work to practice and whether it can withstand the test of time. In this way, we could introduce a multi-signal feedback paradigm for S&T evaluation, which embodies the philosophy of harmony and encourages competition, cooperation and innovation-intensive development. When implementing State key and comprehensive S&T projects, we also need to observe their own developmental rules, overcoming such malpractices as “having a division of labor but no cooperation,” “assembling to win projects and dispersing after funds distribution,” and finishing up a project via “piecing together results.” We need to really overcome the barriers of sector protectionism and departmentalism left by the past exercise of the planned economy, so as to ensure the effective fulfillment of national goals. We should strengthen the development of a modernized management system for scientific research institutes. We need to formulate an organization law for scientific research institutions. In line with the principle of “clear responsibility, evaluation in a scientific approach, opening in an orderly manner, standardized management,” and the philosophy of “respecting the autonomy of research institutes and bringing their initiative into full play,” this law should be aimed at establishing: a budgetary and personnel management system suitable for modern S&T innovation activities; a clearly oriented system for science evaluation; an intellectual property right management system noted for creativity encouragement and with due attention to patent protection, technology transfer and management innovation; and an exchange and cooperation system characterized with opening, mobility and dynamic optimization. By classified management, we will help research institutes to grow into national scientific research centers open to the public and staffed with best S&T professionals. It is necessary to foster an innovation-based culture. We need to produce an academic atmosphere of “honesty, tolerance and harmony,” respecting

Roadmap 2050

academic freedom, encouraging academic debates, and advocating criticism. An institutional and cultural environment should be created to encourage innovation and entrepreneurship. Efforts should be doubled to promote public awareness of S&T values embodying “rejuvenating China through science and education” and “innovation for the people’s welfare.” People should be encouraged to take the lead and risk to make innovation. Along this line, we should ensure that the initiatives of innovators and entrepreneurs be inspired, innovative ideas respected, innovational activities supported, and innovational achievements popularized and put into practice. Once being mastered by the people, science will become an invincible spiritual strength; only being translated into a tangible productive force can technology become a powerhouse for socio-economic progress. In the capacity of a national strategic S&T taskforce, CAS must do its best to serve China’s modernization drive. With an objective of raising China’s international competitiveness and supporting its development in a scientific, sustainable and harmonious manner, CAS is obliged to conduct basic, strategic, foresighted and systematic S&T innovations in light of the campaign to construct the eight basic and strategic systems for socio-economic development, so as to lay a solid knowledge foundation and offer a powerful technological backing and driving force for achieving China’s grand plan towards 2050.

Declaration on the Notion of Science (by the Presidium of CAS Academic Divisions) While constantly revealing the laws of the objective world and of mankind itself, science and science-based technology have greatly advanced the productivity of society and brought about changes to people’s modes of production and life in general. They have also tapped man’s power of reason, bringing about such things as epistemology and methodology, the scientific world view, and a wealth of advanced culture that includes the spirit, ethics and integrity of science. As a result, man’s spiritual realm is continuously upgraded. Invariably, discussion about science is always a focus of concern in the S&T community, and even other sectors of society. Since the beginning of the 20th century, it has increasingly received worldwide attention. This is due to, on the one hand, further consideration on science itself and on its relations with natural and social systems. It also reflects the interactions between the rapid progress of S&T and human existence, development and cultures. While science and technology create massive wealth, both material and spiritual, for the mankind, they also have, by challenging the time-honored social ethics, a negative influence. From time to time, people tend to appreciate science from the angle of its physical achievements, while overlooking its cultural implications and social values. In the S&T community, there exist, in various degrees, such regrettable phenomena as an indifferent attitude towards the spirit of science, scientific misconduct and a lack of

· 134 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

1. The Values of Science Science, which is the common heritage of human beings, should serve the wellbeing of mankind. With the common objective of pursuing the truth and benefiting mankind, the scientific community spares no effort in promoting people’s free development and harmony between man and nature, thus reflecting the humane and social concerns of scientific enterprises. By doing this, science not only wins a good reputation, but gains impetus for its own progress. At present, when scientific research has become both a professional and a social endeavor, more efforts should be made to strictly and faithfully observe these values of science. Over the past century, the world has seen a close linkage between scientific research and national objectives, and this is increasingly a strategic requirement for safeguarding the fundamental interests of a country, as well as for promotion of its national competitiveness in the international arena. In this era of economic globalization and the knowledge-based economy, science constitutes a country’s vital knowledge basis for its development, an essential component of its comprehensive national strength and a leading force for its future socio-economic development. From the historical initiative to rejuvenate China through science to the current drive to revitalize the country through science and education, over the past 100-odd years, the Chinese people have been unremittingly pursuing the goal of national rejuvenation through science and democracy. In a country seeking peaceful development, the Chinese S&T community shoulders the responsibility and mission to make innovations for the people and revitalize the nation with science and education. This should also be the core of the values shared by all CAS staff. 2. The Spirit of Science Science is unity of the material and the spirit, and becomes more powerful because of the latter. Being a prime feature of human civilization, the spirit of science originates from the human desire to know the unknown and to seek the truth, as well as the human tradition of being rational and positive. Its connotation has been greatly enriched with the incessant development of scientific practice. Historically, it guided people to free themselves from ignorance, superstition and dogmatism. In today’s world, where science’s material achievements are in full play, the spirit is of more and wider socio-cultural value, becoming spiritual wealth shared by the whole society and a guiding beacon to light the way of man’s advancement. Therefore, its advocacy and promotion have become more imperative. In essence, the spirit of science means pursuing the truth. To persevere in

5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 135 ·

Roadmap 2050

sense of social responsibility. To nurture an agreeable academic environment, institutional norms are needed, but it is more important for us to have a correct notion of science. CAS is the country’s top academic institution in natural sciences, the highest advisory body on S&T development and the national hub for comprehensive research and development of natural sciences and high-technology. It makes public proclamations on the notion of science so as to guide S&T professionals to establish a correct perception of scientific values and thereby encourage them to bring forth the spirit of science, abide by ethical principles for scientists and honor their social duties.

Roadmap 2050

the search for and defense of the truth is the nature of science. The true meaning of the spirit of science lies in an attitude that values existing knowledge, but that is also objectively critical and questioning. It calls on people to be prepared to reject those conclusions and judgments that are seemingly unalterable, but limited by the lack of an in-depth understanding. It also urges people to be ready to accept concepts that seemingly deviate from the conventional norms, but have scientific connotations. In addition, it believes that all scientific knowledge is subject to change and that scientific frontiers are endless. The spirit holds innovation in high esteem and considers it the soul of science. It shows respect for originality, encourages discoveries and knowledge innovation, and promotes inventive application of knowledge. It advocates academic freedom for innovation, tolerance of failures, an environment where everyone is equal in the face of the truth, and self-confidence for innovation. The spirit means a strict and vigorous method. Each and every conclusion must be proved logically by both strict demonstration and completely objective verification if it is to be finally recognized by the scientific community. Without exception, everyone’s research work must undergo strict scrutiny until all disagreements and objections against it are cleared. Afterwards, it has to be subject to successive check-ups. Such a spirit is to be embodied by a tenet of universal applicability. As a system of knowledge, science is universal and has its door open to everyone, regardless of his or her nationality, gender, ethnicity and beliefs. Scientific research follows universally applicable norms, criteria and standards, and it is required to make empirical and logical judgment on anyone’s ideas, presentations and viewpoints. 3. Ethical Principles in the Conduct of Science Scientific research is a creative activity. Only by building it on the solid ground of strict ethical norms and in a harmonious social setting can it develop soundly. As a result of time-honored practice, science is endowed with a profound, refined cultural tradition and institutional system, forming a mechanism of self-purification and a set of ethical norms. However, efforts to achieve personal fame, professional ranking and research resources via misconduct are increasingly rampant. It has therefore become a pressing task for the community of Chinese scientists to strengthen the morality of science and safeguard their social and academic reputation. These ethical principles include: Being honest and keeping promises. This is a precondition and mental foundation for the reliability of scientific knowledge. An S&T professional can never tolerate unfaithful behavior. Everyone in the profession must be honest when designing a project, collecting and analyzing data, publishing research results, applying for positions, or making appraisals. When a mistake is committed, timely public acknowledgement in an appropriate way is required. When appraising other people’s contributions, objective norms must be upheld so as to avoid bias or casual judgments. Being trusting and skeptical. This is based on the accumulativeness and progressiveness of science. The principle of trusting, in the first place, assumes that researchers are using appropriate means in search of knowledge, and their mistakes are due to difficulties in the process of seeking truth. The principle of being skeptical requires scientists to stay alert against possible errors and misconduct in research

· 136 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

Mutual respect. This is an ethical basis for the scientific community and its harmonious development. It lays stress on respect for other’s authorship and, through citation, acknowledgement of and esteem for their research results. It also means to respect the confirmation or questioning of one’s own hypotheses by others. In the case of addressing other people’s inquiries, one must adopt an attitude of impartiality and sincerity. In addition, it demands that collaborators are obliged to respect each other, and value their partners’ capacities, contributions and value orientations. Openness. This has always been emphasized and implemented by the scientific community. Traditionally, it stressed that only publicized discoveries will be scientifically recognized and valid. In the present-day world, where intellectual property protection is emphasized, the scientific community advocates openness with a view to making knowledge public goods that can be shared by the whole of mankind. 4. The Social Responsibility of Science Modern science and technology is penetrating and influencing every corner of social life. As science arouses greater expectations, scientists are undertaking more social duties. The experimentation and applications of modern science and technology concern the whole system of nature and society. The results of applying new discoveries and technologies in society are often unpredictable, which is probably drawing mankind into an inexorable process of development, exerting a direct impact on ethics, society and ecology. In this situation, S&T professionals are required to consciously observe the fundamentals of social and ecological ethics, treasure and respect nature and life, and appreciate people’s values and dignity. At the same time, they are obliged to develop scientific ethics that meet the requirements of the age. Modern science and technology, which is noted for both positive and negative influences, has become highly professional and specialized. S&T professionals are therefore required to avoid the negative impacts in a more conscious way and assume responsibility for appraising the consequences of science and technology, including consideration of all the possible results of their research work. They should change or even stop their work once a disadvantage or danger is found. If they cannot make a decision themselves, they must suspend or put off the research and promptly alert the public. As the development of today’s science has provided guidance to future socio-economic development, S&T workers are required to have a strong sense of historic commitment and social responsibility, and treasure their own professional reputation. They should avoid trying to place scientific expertise over other kinds of knowledge and the malpractice of its inappropriate application. In addition, they have to take steps to avoid the waste and abuse of S&T resources. They should regulate their scientific behavior according to social, legal and ethical dimensions, and make contributions to the correct understanding of science among the general public. Science must be given full play in the current era of reform, innovation and development, and in the current process of rejuvenating the Chinese nation. The

5 S&T Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

· 137 ·

Roadmap 2050

work.

Roadmap 2050

drive has been made powerful by material forces of science and technology that are taken as the primary productivity and spiritual forces of S&T concepts that are considered as advanced culture. CAS is willing, together with its counterparts across the country, to practice the correct notion of science by assuming an S&T professional’s responsibility and making contributions to our historical commitment to building an innovation-driven country and a harmonious socialist society.

CAS Code for Good Scientific Conduct On February 26, 2007, CAS released to the public CAS Code of Good Scientific Conduct, clarifying six basic rules to safeguard good scientific conduct, and defining the connotation of misconduct in science, its identification criteria and procedures for handling it. The six rules are as follows: (1) Upholding the civic morality of the People’s Republic of China. (2) Sticking to the principle of honesty, researchers should tell the truth when making data collections and analyses, and reporting research results. They are responsible for ensuring the effectiveness and accuracy of the data they collect and publish. (3) Following the principle of openness, researchers should make the information concerning the research process and results open to the public unless it is a national secret or protected by patent rights. (4) Maintaining the principle of fairness, researchers should be frank and objective. They should give full credit to the contributions of collaborators and competitors, and admit mistakes and failures. They should not resort to any unethical or unlawful measures to impede their research competitors. (5) Regulations of intellectual property rights are to be observed. When publishing a research result, those who make innovative contributions to it and are responsible for its relevant portions should enjoy the fruits of their authorship. Without their consent, their names should not be removed from the author’s list. The authors should acknowledge the services and support provided by research assistants and other people or organizations. (6) In accordance with the principle of notification and withdrawal, whenever there is a conflict of interests in a case of research, investigation, publication, press release, materials and facilities provision, grant application, employment and promotion, the people involved have the responsibility to disclose the parties (people or organization) that might have interests in it, regardless of whether such interests are direct, indirect or potential. They should also report the impact it might have on the other people in the conflict of interests. If necessary, those people should abstain from such activities.

· 138 ·

Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050