Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice Volume 3

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice Series Editors: Jafar Jafari Department of Hospitality and Tourism, University of Wisconsin-Stout, Menomonie, WI 54751, USA. Tel (715) 232 2339; Fax (715) 232 3200; Email [email protected] Liping A. Cai Purdue Tourism and Hospitality Research Center, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907, USA. Tel (765) 494 8384; Fax (765) 496 1168; Email [email protected] Recognizing the increasing gap between what is researched in academic community and what is practiced in industry, this series aims to bring together academic and industry leaders in their respective fields to discuss, exchange, and debate issues critical to the advancement of tourism. The book series intends to not only create a platform for academics and practitioners to share theories and practices with each other, but more importantly, to serve as a collaborative venue for meaningful synthesis. Each volume will feature a distinct theme by focusing on a current or upcoming niche or ‘‘hot’’ topic. It shows how theories and practices inform each other; how both have evolved, advanced, and been applied; and how industry best practices have benefited from, and contributed to, theoretical developments. Volume editors have both strong academic credentials and significant consulting or other industry engagement experiences. Chapter contributors will be identified through professional conferences and trade conventions. In general, the book series seeks a synergy of how concepts can inform actions, and vice versa. The book series will inspire a new generation of researchers who can translate academic discoveries to deliverable results valuable to practitioners. Forthcoming volumes in this book series Tourism as an Instrument of Development: A Case Study Eduardo Fayos-Sola, ed.

Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice Volume 3

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

CHRISTIAN SCHOTT Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

United Kingdom  North America  Japan India  Malaysia  China

Emerald Group Publishing Limited Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK First edition 2010 Copyright r 2010 Emerald Group Publishing Limited Reprints and permission service Contact: [email protected] No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying issued in the UK by The Copyright Licensing Agency and in the USA by The Copyright Clearance Center. No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of information contained in the text, illustrations or advertisements. The opinions expressed in these chapters are not necessarily those of the Editor or the publisher. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-0-85724-619-6 ISSN: 2042-1443 (Series)

Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Howard House, Environmental Management System has been certified by ISOQAR to ISO 14001:2004 standards Awarded in recognition of Emerald’s production department’s adherence to quality systems and processes when preparing scholarly journals for print

This volume is dedicated to my son, Sebastian, who was born during this book’s journey from an idea to completion, and his children and childrens’ children.

Contents

Acknowledgments 1. Tourism and Climate Change: Interrelationships and Implications Christian Schott, Andy Reisinger and Taciano L. Milfont

xiii 1

Introduction

2

Implications and the Psychology of Climate Change

8

Conclusion

17

About this Volume

21

PART I: CONTEXTUALIZING CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM 2. A Review of the Current Science of Climate Change Ernesto Rodrı´guez-Camino

27

Introduction

28

Climate Change Research

29

Conclusion

47

3. Climate Change and Tourism: Facing the Challenges Luigi Cabrini

49

Introduction

49

Tourism in the Era of Global Climate Change

50

Conclusion

64

Acknowledgments

64

viii

Contents PART II: ISSUES AND ACTIONS IN SUPPLYING TOURISM PRODUCTS IN THE ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE

4. Tourism Transport, Technology, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Paul Peeters

67

Introduction

68

Transport Technology and Tourism Development

70

Conclusion

87

Acknowledgments

90

5. The Hospitality Sector: Corporate Social Responsibility and Climate Change Piotr Zientara and Paulina Bohdanowicz

91

Introduction

92

The Pros and Cons of Corporate Social Responsibility

95

Conclusion 6. The Cruise Sector and Its Environmental Impact Ross A. Klein

109 113

Introduction

114

Believe What We Say, not What We Do

119

Conclusion

128

7. Case Study: Environmental Sustainability in New Zealand’s Budget Accommodation Sector Stephanie Haskell and Jonathan Tunnell

131

Introduction

132

YHA Initiatives

133

Conclusion

140

8. Case Study: Climate Change Mitigation in the Rental Transport Sector Lynn Briggs Introduction

143 143

Contents

ix

KEA and Sustainability

145

Conclusion

153

9. Case Study: Green Light for the Hospitality Sector Wouter Staal

155

Introduction

155

Seeing the Green Light

156

Conclusion

162

PART III: DESTINATIONS, TOURISTS, AND NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS: ISSUES AND ACTIONS 10. Tourism and Climate Change: Public and Private Sector Responses in New Zealand Douglas G. Pearce and Christian Schott

165

Introduction

166

New Zealand’s Responses to Climate Change

170

Conclusion

186

Acknowledgments

186

11. Australia’s Tourism Carbon Footprint: A Production-based Approach Larry Dwyer, Peter Forsyth, Serajul Hoque and Ray Spurr

187

Introduction

188

Measures of Tourism’s Carbon Footprint

190

Conclusion

200

Acknowledgments

202

12. Tourists’ Cyber Tales, Climate Change, and New Media Peter M. Burns, Lyn Bibbings and Agnes Wrobel Introduction

203 204

x

Contents Blogs and Bloggers’ Perspectives

208

Conclusion

220

13. Case Study: Raising Awareness about Climate Change in Canada Rachel Dodds and Sonya Graci

223

Introduction

223

The Icarus Foundation

226

Conclusion

233

PART IV: ISSUES AND ACTIONS IN ADAPTING AND INNOVATING TOURISM PRODUCTS AND DESTINATIONS 14. Climate Change and Adaptation at Regional and Local Scale Andreas Matzarakis

237

Introduction

237

Weather, Climate, and Tourism

239

Conclusion

257

Acknowledgments

259

15. Climate Change and Tourism in the Eastern Baltic Sea Region Timofey Agarin, Jens Jetzkowitz and Andreas Matzarakis

261

Introduction

262

The Eastern Baltic Sea Region

273

Conclusion

280

16. Logan’s Run: California and Los Angeles in 2050 Ian Yeoman and Mariska Wouters

283

Introduction

284

A Scenario of Metropolis Los Angeles

286

Conclusion

296

Contents 17. Case Study: Moving to Carbon Clean Destinations Terry DeLacy and Geoffrey Lipman

xi 299

Introduction

300

GreenEarth.travel

300

Conclusion

310

18. Epilogue: Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change Christian Schott

313

References

319

About the Authors

363

Acknowledgments

As is true for most academic endeavors of this scale, the evolution of this book has not always been without challenges. The journey from idea to completion has been accompanied by many people and was ultimately made possible through the support of family, colleagues, and research assistants. The most important person during this process has been my wife, Joanna. Her patience, support, and help throughout this time is greatly appreciated. Additionally, numerous colleagues from different parts of the world have made important contributions by sharing their time and expertise to review chapters. Their disciplinary backgrounds are as diverse as the chapters in this book, and I would like to thank each of them for their valuable comments and suggestions: Becken, Susanne: Lincoln University, New Zealand Burns, Peter: University of Brighton, United Kingdom Butler, Dick: University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom Chang, Liang-Han: National Penghu University, Taiwan Chang, Wen-Chuan: Taiwan Hospitality and Tourism College, Taiwan Chapman, Ralph: Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand de Freitas, Chris: University of Auckland, New Zealand Erdogan, Nazmiye: Baskent University, Turkey Higham, James: University of Otago, New Zealand Huan, Tzung-Cheng (T.C.): National Penghu University, Taiwan McKercher, Bob: Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong Prideaux, Bruce: James Cook University, Australia Reisinger, Andy: Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Scott, Daniel: University of Waterloo, Canada Shaw, Gareth: University of Exeter, United Kingdom Stewart, Emma: Lincoln University, New Zealand Yeh, Shih-Shuo: University of Waikato, New Zealand Yeoman, Ian: Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

xiv

Acknowledgments

Other people have also made valuable contributions to the book by proofreading and formatting. I would like to acknowledge their part and thank them for their assistance: Ella Street, Erica Inkster, Heike Scha¨nzel, Janine Schroth, and Tricia Lapham. Finally, I want to thank the coordinators of this book series, Jafar and Liping, for their valuable guidance, feedback, and comments.

Chapter 1

TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE Interrelationships and Implications Christian Schott, Andy Reisinger and Taciano L. Milfont Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Abridgement: This chapter contextualizes the interrelationships between tourism and climate change and thus provides an introduction to this volume. It commences with a brief but comprehensive overview of the key issues identified by climate change research, including an update since the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as well as a brief discussion of the latest rounds of climate change negotiations. The pursuing discussion is informed by these points and explores climate change’s indirect and induced impacts on tourism and possible ramifications. Both of these parts highlight behavioral change as a critical factor to both adaptation and mitigation thus motivating the psychological contribution in an effort to shed light on the obstacles to behavioral change. In the concluding section, the chapter synthesizes the discussion grounded in multiple disciplines into a set of research themes that the volume subsequently begins to address. Keywords: behavioral change; climate change science; indirect impacts; transdisciplinary research; psychology

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 1–24 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003004

2

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

INTRODUCTION As the body of literature on climate change and its multifaceted implications expands, it is increasingly evident that the climate change challenge appears to be a version of Hardin’s ‘‘tragedy of the commons’’ (1968). Tourism is a sector reliant on many of its activities taking place in this public domain. Complex economic and commercial imperatives confront environmental, social, and cultural ideals, with only the varying strengths of regulatory frameworks for protection. This complexity places tourism operators in a challenging environment, particularly since stated preferences by tourists about the environmental or social sustainability of their activities do not always match their actual preferences as revealed by their spending priorities. This chapter will explore and synthesize some key imperatives for and obstacles to action on climate change in the tourism industry. While many of the imperatives originate from the field of natural science that deals with climate change projections and their impacts, most of the obstacles have their roots in human behavior and decision making within complex systems. Psychology has a major contribution to offer to further the understanding of those obstacles, and by implication, the measures required to negotiate them. However, this valuable perspective is currently virtually ignored in the tourism literature on this topic. This chapter will first provide a brief overview of the current state of climate change research to emphasize the scale of the issue and the severity of the likely impacts (for a more detailed review of current climate change science see Chapter 2 by Rodrı´ guez-Camino). Next it discusses how some of the key climate change impacts and mitigation options may affect and interrelate with tourism. This section seeks to explore some of the indirect and induced interrelationships between climate change and tourism that have thus far not been examined in any depth (for a summary of the key direct interrelationships between tourism and climate change see Chapter 3 by Cabrini). Both of these sections emphasize the need for more action and highlight the crucial role of developing a better understanding of the barriers to action and their roots. Among the many disciplines that could widen and deepen our understanding of these barriers, and illuminate options for overcoming them, the chapter highlights insights from human psychology to facilitate their use in further research into the complex interrelationships between tourism and climate change. The chapter closes by calling for more transdisciplinary work to be conducted and by synthesizing the issues raised in the chapter into research themes that are informed, where appropriate, by the multidisciplinary nature of the challenge.

Interrelationships and Implications

3

Global Challenge and Current State of Knowledge Climate change is now widely recognized as one of the defining challenges of the 21st century (Ban 2008; Brown 2007; Rudd 2007). This is due to the additional pressures that climate change will exert on already stressed natural resources and increasing natural hazards in many regions, and the attendant need to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which in turn would limit the rate and magnitude of further warming. The latter requirement will create its own economic, environmental, cultural, and social challenges for virtually all countries and economic sectors due to the scale and urgency of this issue. The most recent comprehensive summary of current knowledge on climate change is provided in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Released in four volumes in 2007, this report covers the scientific basis of climate change including: future projections (IPCC 2007a), an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change, the vulnerability of sectors and regions to those impacts as well as their potential to adapt (IPCC 2007b), and the potential technological options, costs, and policies to reduce net GHG emissions from human activities (IPCC 2007c). The fourth volume is a Synthesis Report that summarizes and integrates the key findings from the first three volumes (IPCC 2007d). The Fourth Assessment Report makes a compelling case, based on a comprehensive assessment of thousands of scientific articles from the peerreviewed literature, that it is very likely that most of the warming over the past 50 years has been due to the emission of GHGs from human activities, and that for continued GHG emissions at or above current levels further warming and other climatic changes over the 21st century are very likely to be greater than changes already observed during the 20th century. Additional future changes depend on the amount of further GHG emissions. But even for scenarios that include very rapid emissions reductions, additional warming of at least 21C above preindustrial levels now appears all but unavoidable due to the build-up of GHGs concentrations already in the atmosphere. If no major steps to reduce emissions are taken, warming by 2100 could range between about 2.51C and more than 61C relative to preindustrial levels, with attendant changes in rainfall patterns, rising sea level, and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones (IPCC 2007d). Impacts of those changes on natural and human systems are expected to be wide ranging, including impacts on water security, ecosystems, food production, coastal regions, and human settlements and health. The capacity to adapt to these changes is unevenly distributed across the world

4

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

and within societies, with the poorest and those already under stress from nonclimate pressures least able to cope with additional climate changerelated stresses. Climate change is thus thought to make it more difficult in some regions to achieve and retain Millennium Development Goals, particularly those related to the eradication of poverty and hunger, environmental sustainability, and health (UN 2000). In contrast, some regions and sectors could also benefit from modest amounts of warming. Examples of this include agriculture in some mid- and many high-latitude regions that are expected to experience more beneficial conditions, the health sector in regions that currently experience significant incidences of winter illnesses, as well as some Northern and Southern Hemisphere regions due to a potential poleward shift of tourist flows in search of pleasant ‘‘summer holidays’’. Overall, however, the latitudinal gradient implicit in many of these ‘‘positive’’ impacts would result in increasing inequity of the global distribution of natural resources and exposure to hazards (IPCC 2007b). The disparity in cereal production between developed and developing countries presents a case in point as it is expected to increase as a result of climate change, even when factoring in climate change adaptation at the farm level (Easterling, Aggarwal, Batima et al 1994). Similarly, many developing countries that rely heavily on tourism for foreign income could experience the most detrimental impacts on the industry from climate change (Perch-Nielsen 2010). Rising sea levels and the deteriorating health of coral reefs associated with increasing sea surface temperatures are already making a noticeable impact on small tourism-dependent island nations such as the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and Kiribati in the Pacific (Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Program 2010). In both countries the coral reefs and coastal zones, now under threat, constitute one of the main attractions on those islands. The costs of adapting to climate change are difficult to estimate. A variety of recent reports estimated funding required in the range of US$10–100 billion per annum before 2020 (for a summary see Mueller 2008), but these figures could still underestimate the true costs due to the ‘‘adaptation deficit’’ that is accumulating in countries already struggling to integrate projected climate trends and variability in their current infrastructure developments and planning (Parry, Arnell, Berry et al 2009). But even with improved adaptation efforts, unmitigated climate change is likely to eventually exceed adaptive capacity in many sectors and regions; and some systems such as large-scale ecosystems are unlikely to be able to adapt to even moderate changes (IPCC 2007b, 2007d).

Interrelationships and Implications

5

In light of these concerns, more than 130 countries now agree that climate policies should aim to limit global warming to 21C relative to preindustrial conditions (Meinshausen, Meinshausen, Hare et al 2009). Such a level of warming would not avoid all impacts and substantial adaptation to the unavoidable changes would still be necessary, but it would reduce the risk of large-scale impacts for many sectors and regions. Sea levels in particular would continue to rise for many centuries, even if warming was limited to 21C, potentially reaching more than 1 m due to thermal expansion of the oceans alone, with additional contributions from melting glaciers, ice caps, and the polar ice sheets (IPCC 2007d). Given that the world has already warmed by about 0.51C between preindustrial times and 1980–1999, limiting warming to 21C above preindustrial levels would require global carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) GHG emissions to peak before 2020 and decline to about 50% of 1990 emissions levels by the year 2050 (IPCC 2007c). Net CO2 emissions would need to reduce to near zero by the end of the 21st century if the warming of the global climate system is to be halted, let alone reversed, given the very long lifetime of this GHG in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007c; Moss, Edmonds, Hibbard et al 2010; Solomon, Plattner, Knutti and Friedlingstein 2009; van Vuuren, Meinshausen, Plattner et al 2008). The economic potential to achieve rapid emissions reductions exists and could be realized by a portfolio of climate policies and technologies across the energy, transport, building, agriculture, forestry, and waste sectors. Tourism is not specified in the IPCC assessment but instead represented in numerous core sectors with the greatest GHG relevance in the building sector (mainly through energy efficiency, but also use of local renewable energy sources such as solar hot water heating) and transport. However, other sectors are also heavily linked to tourism through co-benefits of emissions reductions. These include habitat restoration resulting from mitigation actions in the forestry and agriculture sectors that would also benefit nature-based forms of tourism such as ecotourism, as well as benefits from green branding and ecolabeling related to actions in the waste and energy efficiency sectors. No single technology will be able to achieve significant emissions reductions on its own, but existing technologies, if supported by adequate policies to overcome a variety of barriers, could limit global GHG emissions below year 2000 levels by the year 2030 at a price of carbon of up to $100/ tCO2-e (IPCC 2007c). Further technology development and diffusion would lower costs and enable deeper emissions reductions beyond 2030 to allow eventual stabilization of GHG concentrations by the end of the 21st century (IPCC 2007c). Examples in the energy sector include the development of advanced renewable energy sources such as solar and wave power and the

6

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies in combination with bioenergy. Further reductions in energy demand through advanced housing design and more compact urban form are also key tools in reducing emissions, as is the development of less carbon-intensive forms of transport through hybrid and electric vehicles and second-generation biofuels. Reducing the rate of deforestation particularly in tropical regions would also make a significant contribution to overall emissions reductions and reduce mitigation costs in other sectors (IPCC 2007c). Apart from technological advances, the IPCC importantly mentioned that behavioral changes and management choices can also contribute to GHG emissions reductions (IPCC 2007c, Summary for Policymakers). However, behavioral responses to date have had a negligible impact on long-term emissions trends. This suggests that a far more sophisticated understanding of the drivers of human behavior, including their responses to different types of policy interventions, is needed if behavioral change and management choices are to be incorporated into climate change mitigation strategies (discussed below). Moreover, implementing policies to achieve technological and behavioral change requires significant political will and would create winners and losers within societies, and could result in significant wealth transfers between countries depending on how regional- and country-specific emissions targets are set. This is reflected in the wide range of alternative proposals and their varying ethical foundations that have been advanced to allocate emissions targets to different countries and country groups (Gupta, Tirpak, Burger et al 2007; Ho¨hne and Moltmann 2008). A Brief Update on Recent Scientific Findings The IPCC assessment reviewed above provides a snapshot of knowledge up to the year 2007. More recent publications have contributed additional weight to some areas of research. Perhaps the most important area concerns the potential rate and magnitude of future sea level rise. The IPCC provided projections for sea level rises of 18–59 cm by 2090 (relative to average sea level in 1980–1999), but warned that these model-based projections did not consider the possible acceleration of the loss of polar ice. Accelerated flow of glaciers that drain the polar ice sheets have been observed in both Greenland and West Antarctica (Alley, Fahnestock and Joughin 2008; Das, Joughin, Behn et al 2008; Joughin, Das, King et al 2008; Nick, Vieli, Howat and Joughin 2009; Rignot, Koppes and Velicogna 2010; Stearns, Smith and Hamilton 2008; Velicogna 2009), but are not captured by current ice sheet models. As a result, the range given in the IPCC assessment should be

Interrelationships and Implications

7

regarded as lower bound rather than best estimate of future changes (IPCC 2007a). Based on different lines of evidence, a raft of more recent studies now suggest that sea levels could rise anywhere between 0.5–1.5 m by 2100, but even a rise as high as 2 m cannot be ruled out entirely (for summaries see Allison, Bindoff, Bindschadler et al 2009; Levin and Tirpak 2009; Pfeffer, Harper and O’Neel 2008; Steffen 2009). Given the increasing and large investment in infrastructure, including those in tourism-related facilities and major ports around the world’s coastlines, the potential for accelerated sea level rise clearly has major implications for adaptation planning and the need for emissions cuts from a risk management perspective. At the same time, global GHG emissions during the first decade of the 21st century have risen faster than assumed in most business-as-usual emissions scenarios. These high emission rates imply that the window of opportunity to reduce GHG emissions consistent with a long-term goal of stabilizing concentrations at 450 ppm CO2-e is closing rapidly. In fact some researchers argue that this window of opportunity has already closed (Anderson and Bows 2008; Meinshausen and Hare 2008; Sheehan 2008; van Vuuren and Riahi 2008). An increasing set of model simulations is now exploring the implications of further delays in emissions reductions, and find that such delays inevitably increase global costs as well as increasing the risk of greater climate change (den Elzen, van Vuuren and van Vliet 2010; van Vliet, den Elzen and van Vuuren 2009). Several recent publications emphasize that there is a limit to the total cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 that are consistent with goals to limit warming to 21C above preindustrial levels, which presents an increased urgency to initiate emissions reductions in the very near future in order to remain within such an overall emissions budget (Allen, Frame, Frieler et al 2009; Meinshausen et al 2009). Negotiation Outcomes and Challenges Negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have sought to deliver a new global agreement that would address mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, as well as technology and finance (UNFCCC 2007). The so-called Bali Action Plan, launched in December 2007, was anticipated to conclude with a new legally binding agreement two years later in December 2009 in Copenhagen and to either extend or replace the Kyoto Protocol, whose first commitment period concludes in 2012. The Copenhagen negotiations fell well short of these expectations, despite an unprecedented attendance by heads of state and senior ministers from many countries. The Copenhagen Accord was a

8

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

political agreement negotiated in the margins of the official meeting by a limited group of countries, albeit including most of the world’s largest emitters such as the United States of America, China, and Brazil. The Accord agrees that global efforts should limit warming to 21C above preindustrial levels. To achieve this outcome, the Accord contains provisions for binding economy-wide emissions targets by developed countries subject to international verification and mitigation actions by developing countries that are reported biennially and, if they were supported by international finance, are also verified internationally. However, the emission reductions to date consist only of voluntary pledges by individual countries, and are thus not necessarily connected with the overall emissions reductions needed to actually achieve the 21C limit. Indeed, even if all emissions targets offered to date were achieved, warming by the year 2100 would be closer to 3.51C than 21C (Rogelj, Hare, Nabel et al 2009; Rogelj, Nabel, Chen et al 2010). It remains to be seen whether the ongoing negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change during 2010 can strengthen emission targets to make them consistent with at least the longterm 21C limit stated in the Accord, and whether its political promise can be turned into a legally binding agreement under the UN framework. It is also worth noting that the Alliance of Small Island States has called for global warming to be limited to 1.51C above preindustrial levels, given that 21C and attendant sea level rise would still place a major question mark over the long-term existence of low-lying small island states, including their long-term viability as destinations for tourism that provides a major source of foreign income for these countries (AOSIS 2008). Other elements of the Accord include measures to reduce deforestation and forest degradation, and significant immediate financial support by developed countries for developing countries of $30 billion during the 2010– 2012 period to support adaptation and mitigation measures. By 2020, the Accord envisages mobilizing as much as $100 billion annually in support of climate change responses by developing countries. Investments and support of this order of magnitude could make a critical contribution to climateproofing key economic sectors and activities of developing countries, including tourism activities that are critical to many developing economies.

IMPLICATIONS AND THE PSYCHOLOGY OF CLIMATE CHANGE The interrelationship between climate change and tourism has received increasing attention over the last decade. However, despite some efforts to

Interrelationships and Implications

9

adopt a wider perspective, the main thrust of the tourism literature focuses on a few topics, including the likely macro level impacts of climatic change on tourism flows (Amelung, Nicholls and Viner 2007; Go¨ssling and Hall 2006b; Hamilton and Tol 2007; Lise and Tol 2002; Maddison 2001; Mather, Viner and Todd 2005), the impacts of climate change on the ski tourism sector (Elsasser and Bu¨rki 2002; Galloway 1988; Ko¨nig and Abegg 1997; Scott, McBoyle and Mills 2003), tourism’s contribution to climate change (Becken, Frampton and Simmons 2001, 2003; Becken and Hay 2007), mitigation options available (Becken and Hay 2007; Go¨ssling and Hall 2008; Peeters 2007a, 2007b), and GHG offsetting (Becken 2004; Go¨ssling, Broderick, Upham et al 2007). More recently research on global environmental change and tourism has also placed a strong focus on climate changerelated issues, but in a specific environmentally focused context (Go¨ssling and Hall 2006b). However, the breadth and depth of the diverse interrelationships and implications of climate change and, linked to this, tourism as an economic sector, social phenomenon, and psychologically and culturally important activity, have only been touched on. There have been a number of departures from the outlined research thrust, but they have tended to be isolated exceptions. The wide-ranging implications of climate change for this complex industry will have different levels of significance in different settings and contexts due to varying levels of environmental vulnerability, political structures, social fabric, and health care provisions, to name but a few, as well as the many characteristics of tourists and tourism activities taking place. In fact, the complexity of the relationship and the many factors that influence the type and severity of issues raised by climate change can be best summarized by Wall and Mathieson’s (2006) conceptual framework. However, irrespective of the differences that will undoubtedly exist, possible direct, indirect, and induced implications under the more extreme scenarios and over longer periods of time can be argued to include water supply, food security and nutrition, health, increased poverty, widening gap between affluent and poor, near-term development versus long-term sustainability, and migration. Implications Water Supply. Supply of water and competition for these supplies between different economic sectors as well as, on a microscale, between tourists and local residents is expected to become a greater issue in areas that are forecast to experience reduced rainfall and increased water shortages such as Africa, Australia, Central America, and parts of South and Central Asia, as well as

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

many small islands (IPCC 2007a, 2007d). This will undoubtedly have implications for the current patterns of water consumption and regional policies that govern water abstraction and usage, for example by hotels and golf courses, and the generation of drinking water, as well as a greater emphasis on whether and how wastewater is treated. In turn, the recycling of wastewater can raise cultural issues and create challenges in combining imperatives of local sustainability with tourists’ expectations of unlimited resource use during their stay, particularly in ‘‘luxury holidays’’. Food Security and Nutrition. Crop yields are widely expected to change under altered climatic conditions, in part due to the above point about water (Easterling et al 2007; Rosenzweig and Parry 1994), which in the case of many developing countries will be to their detriment. This relative decrease in yield will likely be worse in vulnerable areas where large-scale tourism infrastructure has been developed at the expense of agricultural land, which means that less arable land is now available. Many examples of widereaching changes in land use exist: including the rice fields in Thailand that were filled in to pave the way for more hotels and golf courses. This will make it more difficult and costly to procure food and beverage supplies for tourists as for the local population, while at the same time increasing the vulnerability of local populations to variations in tourism income due to the inability to extract alternative value out of local land resources. Health. As the risk of severe heat stress increases in certain regions and diseases and bacteria spread or increase in prominence (such as Malaria in Africa; Patz, Campbell-Lendrum, Holloway and Foley 2005), tourists are expected to either demand ‘‘adequate’’ protection and care facilities or to simply avoid regions affected by these issues. As a result tourist-focused hospitals and health care centers will become more important than ever; for both tourists as well as the local communities. It is likely that more facilities may be built in an effort to retain tourism as an economic sector. However, tourism to destinations suffering from elevated risk of these health issues is likely to be relatively small scale under scenarios of severe climate change. Increased Poverty. The poor are likely to become comparatively poorer as a result of numerous changes including access to food and water (Smith 2006) and potentially also as a result of emissions cutting efforts that would reduce air traffic and thus impact economic sectors that rely on global connectedness through transport networks, such as tourism. While there will also be new opportunities to generate income, it appears unlikely that these

Interrelationships and Implications

11

will outweigh the loss of income opportunities in developing countries in particular for rural and subsistence populations. Gap between Affluent and Poor. Parallel to the likely increase in poverty is the likelihood of the gap between the affluent and the poor increasing further (Tol, Downing, Kuik and Smith 2004) as the poor are less (financially) equipped to mitigate and to invest in adaptation measures to protect their livelihood and home. Decreased volumes of tourism in developing countries as a result of changing tourist flows would exacerbate the issue as will a lack of adaptation measures in terms of a destination’s attractiveness in the eyes of potential tourists. Near- vs. Longterm Sustainability. Investments in tourism infrastructure in the form of hotels and airports have long life spans and payback periods, which increases the need to ensure that such developments are climate-proofed with regard to rising sea levels, changes in rainfall and storminess. However, such climate proofing can come at a significant near-term opportunity cost of foregone development options. This creates a challenging dilemma for local planning whether the near-term economic benefits, including employment, poverty reduction, and potential up-skilling of local populations, outweigh the longer term difficulties of tourism investments potentially becoming unviable in a changing climate or requiring more expensive upgrades later. Migration. According to estimates based on scenarios of abrupt climatic change up to 100 million people could be forced to migrate due to environmental disasters (Schwartz and Randall in Wright 2007). In the Pacific Ocean, entire island nations are projected to become uninhabitable over time due to sea level rises, as mentioned earlier. Some of these islands are popular tourist destinations and their inhabitants are dependent on tourism for income. As sea levels rise, large-scale migration of the inhabitants is likely to occur. Parallel to the forced migration from affected islands, the flow of migrant tourism workers is likely to adjust to any changes in the flows of tourists triggered by the effects of climate change, particularly if access to opportunities to generate income changes drastically. This is likely to intensify the pressure on certain regions that are expected to be less negatively affected by climate change and their tourism industry, which may even benefit from some changes. While such regions may experience less direct climate change impacts that can be considered as negative, they are likely to face other challenges in the form of indirect and induced implications of global climatic change such as increased migration.

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

Undoubtedly, there are more, in particular indirect and induced, impacts of climate change for tourism and vice versa. However it is beyond the scope of this chapter to formulate more implications. Instead the chapter will explore possible ramifications of the points presented, before turning its attention to the psychology of climate change. Key ramifications raised by these points include, for example, that the dominant value structures, and in particular the economic growth paradigm, will likely have to be challenged. This will lead to a new set of implications for tourism as an important driver of many economies, but also with regard to the noncommercial guises of tourism as a predominantly recreational activity and important aspect of society. Furthermore, in a carbon-intensive world that looks similar to the more extreme scenarios contemplated by researchers and the IPCC it is indeed perceivable that in realization of the ineffectiveness of voluntary measures, policies such as carbon rationing or unilateral trade barriers might be put into place by individual countries that would dramatically alter access to, as well as the overall scale of, tourism. The UK government’s decision to increase the country’s departure tax for climate change reasons is an example of fiscal unilateral action. Such measures taken in the name of sustainability could have major implications for some of the countries most vulnerable to climate change that critically rely on tourists for their foreign income. While the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change recognizes that the poorest and most vulnerable countries should be protected from flow-on effects from mitigation actions taken in developed countries, understanding and quantifying such flow-on effects and deciding on appropriate means to mitigate such adverse effects is fraught with technical difficulties as well as political sensitivities. Other ramifications of more extreme emissions and climate change scenarios, with or without radical policies to mitigate GHG emissions, are likely to include that tourism experiences will become more localized in order to reduce emissions linked to transport. Such a shift to a low carbon or even carbon-neutral tourism industry is also likely to include a great increase in slow tourism such as cycling, walking, and train travel, and could potentially go as far as making virtual tourism common place to provide a touristic experience while avoiding transport-related GHG emissions. Burns and Bibbings (2007) argue that the technological advances in televising information (resolution, interactivity, and the whole notion of digital co presence) are making virtual tourism a more credible possibility. Such a shift toward localizing tourism experiences will render artificial tourism environments, such as the Dubai ski-dome, more attractive (but clearly only if the high energy and water consumption can be met by renewable supply). Such

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artificial tourism spaces could well become the only means by which large parts of the populations of developed countries can gain access to these types of specialized tourism experiences; due to reduced snow cover in mountain areas and the necessity to travel less. But these contrived and inauthentic experiences in artificially created environments, or even virtual forms of tourism, will further challenge the much debated concept of authenticity in tourism (Cohen 1979, 1988; MacCanell 1973; Wang 1999); perhaps the meaning of what a ‘‘touristic experience’’ represents will have to be adjusted. The above overview highlights some of the dilemmas that transpire from exploring the process of bridging tourism theory and practice in the context of climate change. However, the initial challenge to initiating the necessary mitigation and adaptation actions, as discussed in the first part of the chapter, is to understand and overcome the reasons for insufficient action and the attitude-behavior gap, which has been observed widely in environmentally focused studies (Boulstridge and Carrigan 2000; Reiser and Simmons 2005; Schott 2006). Because numerous commentators on the topic of climate change have emphasized that behavioral change is essential in addressing the implications of climate change, either through voluntary individual or collective action, the chapter will now discuss the psychology of climate change in an attempt to shed light on the psychological barriers to action. Psychological Barriers Most of the environmental problems, including climate change, have their roots in human behavior. Indeed, global environmental problems are ultimately really global symptoms of individual and collective actions (Walsh 1988). Not surprisingly, several publications have highlighted the role of psychology in dealing with these issues (Corral-Verdugo, Garcı´ aCadena and Frı´ as-Armenta 2010; Gifford 2008a, 2008b; Oskamp 2000; Schmuck and Schultz 2002; Schmuck and Vlek 2003; Vlek and Steg 2007). While the scientific evidence for climate change and other environmental problems has been accumulating, there is inertia in solving these problems. Psychology can help understand human failure to become aware of global environmental issues and to act appropriately on these issues. The psychological literature has identified specific barriers or constraints preventing people from becoming aware of climate change and from acting on this awareness (Swim, Clayton, Doherty et al 2009; Milfont 2010). For example, Swim et al (2009) discuss several structural and psychological barriers that can restrict actions for mitigating climate change. Structural

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

barriers include institutional barriers (constraints related to benefits and regulatory restrictions), cultural barriers (social expectations of successful lifestyles), barriers in the physical environment (cold climate and building facilities), economic barriers (financial constraints imposed on poor households and small business), and informational barriers (lack of useful knowledge on most effective mitigation actions). By and large, these structural barriers are outside one’s influence. Swim et al (2009) also present a sequence of 12 specific psychological barriers that can restrict actions for mitigating climate change: ignorance, uncertainty, mistrust/reactance, denial, judgmental discounting, place attachment, habit, perceived behavioral control, perceived risks from behavioral change, tokenism/rebound effect, social comparison, and belief in solutions outside human control. In a more parsimonious account, Milfont (2010) identified five specific psychological barriers. These barriers are seen as inadvertent characteristics of climate change (Pawlik 1991) that influence people’s evaluations of this issue. These characteristics can help in understanding the human failure to become aware of global environmental changes. One, psychophysiological barriers: The physical ‘‘signals’’ of changes in temperature due to climate change are weak in value if compared with variation in temperature due to daily, seasonal, and regional variations. That is, the current physical signals of climate change are overall below the common perceptual thresholds of discernability and are thus harder to notice than other environmental problems. These psychophysiological barriers to perceiving the physical signs of climate changes are deemed to change, as the consequences of changes in the climate soon become very noticeable. Two, temporal barriers: There is a great temporal delay between human actions and their perceptible influence on environmental systems, which means that the consequences of human actions go beyond a single generation. Indeed, the review of current climate change knowledge indicates that current actions will influence how the world will develop over the next centuries (Collins, Colman, Haywood, Manning and Mote 2007). Conversely, mitigation actions will entail costs to current generations but the main benefits would be accrued only by future generations. Another temporal barrier refers to individuals’ temporal orientations. Research has shown that environmental issues entail a conflict between short-term and longterm interests (Joireman, Van Lange and Van Vugt 2004), and the future-oriented individuals (those who are aware of and concerned about the future consequences of their actions) tend to care and act more to address environmental issues than present-oriented individuals (Milfont and Gouveia 2006).

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Three, judgmental barriers: There are cognitive biases that originate from judgmental heuristics (mental strategies or cognitive shortcuts) (Tversky and Kahneman 1974). When making judgments about uncertain outcomes (for example, when judging the importance and implications of climate change), people tend to use such heuristics. Instances or occurrences of global warming and climate change (or natural disasters produced by those) cannot be easily brought to mind, and as a result its probability of occurrence is underestimated due to a cognitive bias. Another cognitive bias refers to the tendency to evaluate hazards as more threatening when such hazards are perceived as unknown (Slovic 1987). Risks from climate change (floods, sea rise) are by and large known and thus underestimated (Weber 2006). Thus, natural disasters caused by climate change are underestimated because of their low frequency of occurrence as well as because of their familiarity. Four, geographical barriers: Environmental consequences of global warming and climate change operate across temporal social distances, but are also carried across spatial social distances. People’s maladaptive behaviors have negative consequences for generations living away, apart in both place and time. Research has shown that there is a tendency to perceive environmental problems as more worrying when they take place at greater distances. This bias in evaluating environmental problems in distinct geographical places has been referred to as ‘‘environmental hyperopia’’ (Uzzell 2000) or ‘‘spatial optimism’’ (Gifford, Scannell, Kormos et al 2009). As a result of this bias, people are typically more concerned about environmental problems at the global and international level than they are at the local and regional level. Freury-Bahi (2008) has shown, for example, that participants’ perceived risk of climate change increased as a function of both the spatial distance and number of people under consideration. Climate change was rated as a greater risk for humanity than for inhabitants of the country, inhabitants of the town, and for oneself (humanityWcountryW townWoneself ). Five, social barriers: Underlying the use of natural resources is the dilemma between individual and public interests: to act serving one’s own interests or to act serving the needs of the group or wider society (Hardin 1968). Broader environmental problems such as climate change involves both resource dilemmas and public good dilemmas (Gifford 2008a, 2008b; Van Vugt 1998). The resource dilemmas are situations that require individuals’ cooperation to preserve a valuable resource (such as rain forest), while public good dilemmas are situations that require individuals’ cooperation to create a valuable good (creation of a community center for edible gardening). Environmental issues are usually the result of a large

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

number of individual acts of destruction, so individualistic orientations tend to produce negative outcomes in such dilemmas. Supporting this, research has shown that individuals who place higher priorities in individualistic, selfcentered value orientations tend to be less concerned about environmental issues than those who place higher priority on altruistic, other-centered value orientations (Coelho, Gouveia and Milfont 2006; Milfont, Duckitt and Wagner in press; Milfont, Sibley and Duckitt 2010; Schultz, Gouveia, Cameron et al 2005). These five barriers can be used to understand human failure to tackle environmental issues. In fact, psychological (but also structural) barriers need to be addressed for significant behavioral change to occur. But how can this be achieved? It seems clear that in order to address these barriers one needs to understand and use human psychology. A starting point is to identify specific cognitive and psychological constraints, but in order to achieve change a focus on motivation to action is essential. Van Vugt (2009) has recently presented a framework to achieve this goal. He identified four main foci of interventions to protect the environment that are in line with four core human motives. Thus, he argues for the need to understand and accept specific human motives and use them when devising interventions to tackle environmental issues. The interventions and their related motives are: information (understanding as the core motive), identity (belonging), institutions (trusting), and incentives (self-enhancing). The understanding motive refers to the need to understand the physical and social environment. A constraint to fulfill this motive is that global environmental changes are uncertain. Interventions should thus focus on the use of information to reduce environmental and social uncertainty. The belonging motive refers to our need for positive social identity. A constraint to fulfill this motive is that resource competition between communities increases overuse of the natural resources. Interventions should focus on fostering identity to improve and broaden an individual’s sense of community. The trusting motive refers to our need to build trusting relationships. A constraint to fulfill this motive is that authorities are not always seen as legitimate and fair. Interventions should focus on institutions to increase acceptance of common rules. The self-enhancing motive refers to our need to improve ourselves and increase our resources. A constraint to fulfill this motive is that economic incentives undermine intrinsic motivation to conserve. Interventions should focus on incentives to punish overuse and reward responsible use. Although theoretical, this framework can lead to empirical and practical outcomes. For example, tourism organizations may use the understanding

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motive of tourists to provide them with relevant information about the impact of their behaviors during the trips and holidays, and the future consequences of their actions to the destination. One could also consider the low-lying coastal and small island countries as a case study in which their specific needs and belonging motive lead them to create a formal group (Alliance of Small Island States) to fight for their interests. Another example refers to the ineffectiveness of voluntary measures and the need for institutional and governmental policies, such as carbon rationing, to generate action. Widespread support for such necessary policies would require a focus on the trusting motive by community members. This framework thus provides an interesting benchmark for interweaving human psychology and specific areas of intervention that foster actions tackling climate change, which is relevant for tourism.

CONCLUSION The chapter illustrates that the complex interrelationships between climate change and tourism, including the role of human behavior and its key drivers, are still little understood. Tourists often state that they want to do ‘‘the right thing’’. Tourism operators and regulators need to respond to those ideals through the services and standards they offer. At the same time, spending priorities and actual behavior often do not conform to the tourists’ stated attitudes––the attitude-behavior gap. Ultimately, tourist decision making is not only based on economic rationale but also crucially on what constitutes a good holiday, according to many conscious and subconscious social, cultural, and environmental factors. If tourism is to remain viable while responding to climate change through both emissions reductions and adapting to a changing climate, and associated changes in its regulatory environment, it is crucial that a better scientific understanding of the various dilemmas that the sector faces, and the often competing drivers that create those dilemmas, is developed. The Research Themes Many disciplines and fields of study have a crucial role to play in building a more comprehensive understanding of the issues involved and the actions required by the private sector, the public sector, tourism consumers, host communities, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Research that is

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

transdisciplinary in nature is therefore essential when dealing with a phenomenon that cannot be dissected into convenient disciplinary boundaries. Bearing in mind this need to engage and collaborate with other disciplines, the following research themes emerge from the chapter’s discussion of the current climate change science, the implications for tourism, and the psychological perspective on the topic. 1. Diversification of geographical and disciplinary perspectives: Most research on climate change in the context of tourism has been conducted by environmentally focused researchers from northern Europe, North America, and New Zealand. But vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options are shaped by local socioeconomic and cultural contexts, as well as by the adaptive capacity of local people and institutions. Understanding local responses and options to adapt local tourism activities to the impacts of climate change will require intensified place-based research conducted by researchers that are appropriately equipped to understand these place-specific factors. This will be aided by drawing on the lessons generated by the growing literature on place-based vulnerability in other sectors (Ford, Keskitalo, Smith et al 2010; O’Brien, Eriksen, Nygaard and Schjolden 2007; Smit and Wandel 2006; van Aalst, Cannon and Burton 2008). In line with this, a much wider engagement of researchers from other disciplinary backgrounds is also essential to unravel some of the complex implications and interrelationships between tourism and climate change (Burns and Bibbings 2007; Dubois and Ceron 2006). 2. The role of regulation and standards versus voluntary actions: The literature suggests that voluntary responses to climate change are often critical in the creation of an initial engagement with the issue, but in themselves rarely achieve a significant deviation from business-as-usual pathways (IPCC 2007c). Tourism operators already commit to a variety of voluntary environmental and performance standards, but their effectiveness in reducing the sector’s GHG has been limited. Little is known about what mix of voluntary measures, standards, and regulations could be most effective in allowing tourism to contribute to broader climate change objectives while recognizing its challenging position at the interface of economic pressures, competing consumer demands, and existing voluntary standards as well as regulatory controls. Perhaps a way forward would be to use theoretical models, such the one proposed by Van Vugt (2009), to try and reconcile individuals’ needs and rights with necessary regulations. 3. The role of social norms in changing behavior: As the insights from psychology have illustrated, social norms can play an important role in

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fostering change and embedding new standards of behavior. For example, drawing on evidence showing that human behaviors are significantly affected by social norms, two recent studies have used normative messages when addressing the widely established initiative of persuading hotel guests to reuse towels instead of requesting fresh ones daily, hence reducing water and electricity use (Goldstein, Cialdini and Griskevicius 2008; Schultz, Khazian and Zaleski 2008). This suggests that there is a rich field at the intersection between psychology and tourism that could assist in identifying and overcoming barriers to successful adaptation to climate change, as well as implementation of emission reduction opportunities. Equally, other interventions proposed by Van Vugt’s (2009) framework should be explored in the context of tourism to evaluate their applicability and effectiveness. 4. Lifecycle assessments and green branding: Some segments of the tourism market are moving toward green branding to provide a point of difference. However, the complexity of lifecycle assessments suggests that the difference between green branding and green-wash often rests on important details. Examples include potentially counterproductive effects of ‘‘buy locally’’ purchasing strategies (Saunders, Wreford and Catagay 2006; Mueller 2007), or the lifecycle GHG balance of first-generation biofuels (Searchinger, Heimlich, Houghton et al 2008). Specifically, technological advances that rely on high-powered batteries to reduce GHG emissions (such as hybrid engine technology) are of great interest to tourism but need to be analyzed in this context to assess whether any net emissions savings can be achieved when also considering the behavioral response to green technology. The development of more transparent and widely applicable green branding standards of relevance to tourism companies could harmonize approaches and help define best practice. The growing literature on carbon offsets, their effectiveness and social sustainability could provide a helpful starting point in this area (such as the Gold Standard Foundation). 5. Merging climate change into sustainability and development perspectives: There is a growing recognition that integration of climate change into development plans is a prerequisite for its effective recognition, in both developed and developing countries. Treating climate change as a separate concern is generally less effective. Better understanding of how tourism developments can be climate-proofed through synergies with, rather than compromises against, near-term growth and development objectives will be crucial to allow the effective implementation of sustainability strategies.

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

6. Fostering collaboration and communication: The interdisciplinary nature of tourism research and practice suggests that steps to increase collaboration and communication are critical to promoting effective climate change responses. This applies not only to opening up new research collaborations between academic disciplines and areas of study, but also to increased communication between the public and private sector as well as NGOs. These collaborations may lead to the implementation of case studies and best practice demonstrations that advance the common goal of maintaining tourism as a viable and sustainable industry in the face of the need to contribute to rapid emissions reductions while adapting to unavoidable climate changes. Importantly, platforms are needed that also allow issues and challenges arising from practitioners attempting to convert theory into practice to be shared, as this type of action research can offer a great deal of insight into some of the complexities inherent in the topic. 7. Toward a differentiated analysis of tourism in the context of climate change: The state of knowledge regarding interrelationships between tourism and climate change has reached a stage where researchers need to refine their topics beyond umbrella terms such as tourism and tourists. While some differentiation between different sectors occurs in the tourism literature, future research needs to not merely examine the (air) transport, (hotel) accommodation, and snow-dependent sectors, but explore how other tourism (sub) sectors interrelate with climate change. Equally, tourists or tourism consumers are terms that need to be broken down further to reflect the tremendous diversity represented by this term. There will clearly be significant differences in how different types of tourists respond to the challenge of climate change. While this list of research themes points to a number of important gaps in the existing knowledge, it should not be interpreted to mean that concrete actions to reduce emissions and adapt to inevitable climate changes have to await further research. By contrast, the vast material covered in this introduction makes it clear that there is ample basis for concrete steps by practitioners to deal with climate change and on which robust response strategies can be built. Equally, the material highlights that it is now time for researchers to create transdisciplinary research teams that can build upon the already existing and highly relevant body of knowledge in many different but highly complementary disciplines. The research themes do not seek to compete with or challenge research frameworks contributed by other authors (Burns and Bibbings 2007; Dubois and Ceron 2006), but to complement their

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work and help chart research directions that will provide much needed advances in understanding the challenge that has been described as the pivotal one of the 21st century, and likely beyond.

ABOUT THIS VOLUME This volume seeks to take the initial steps in addressing the identified research themes by providing a platform for knowledge exchange between different disciplines and for learning from both theory and practice in the context of tourism and climate change. The different disciplinary perspectives presented in this volume include anthropology, climatology, climate change studies, economics, environmental sustainability, hospitality, policy and planning, psychology, scenario planning, and transport studies. While it was also attempted to provide insights on the topic from diverse parts of the world, this proved more challenging than anticipated and as a result the contributions originate from nine developed countries across three continents. The academic and case study chapters in this volume are arranged into four parts: a contextualization of tourism and climate change science, a section examining issues and actions in the supply of tourism products in this era of climate change, a section discussing issues and actions in different countries and with different tourism consumers, while the final section of the volume explores adaptation and innovation actions and identifies resultant issues. Section One: Contextualizing Climate Change and Tourism In Chapter 2 climatologist Ernesto Rodrı´ guez-Camino presents a comprehensive overview of the current state of knowledge about climate change by summarizing the extensive work of the IPCC. The chapter outlines the challenges that climate change presents for humankind by examining both the causes and effects. In Chapter 3, Luigi Cabrini positions the existing knowledge about climate change and the different future scenarios in the context of tourism by drawing on the work conducted by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). His contribution illustrates the role of tourism as both a vector and a victim and emphasizes some of the key challenges that climate change will present for tourism as an economic sector and for specific tourist destinations. He concludes the chapter by reinforcing the need for adaptation as well as mitigation and by outlining the climate change-related initiatives led by the UNWTO.

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

Section Two: Tourism Supply in the Era of Climate Change Paul Peeters’ contribution in Chapter 4 is the first in a series of chapters that adopt a sector or subsector perspective to deepen our understanding of the interrelationships between tourism and climate change. Peeters examines the transport sector to assess the possibility of technological innovation delivering the levels of GHG emission reductions required to avert serious climate change. He discusses different modes of transport and their impact on climate change while consistently considering contextual factors that impact on the net emission savings. In the following chapter (Chapter 5) Zientara and Bohdanowicz shift the sectoral focus to accommodation by examining the European hotel sector. The chapter explores climate changerelated actions by hotel chains in Europe while also identifying issues that arise from the discussed initiatives. Zientara and Bohdanowicz frame this analysis within the broader concept of corporate social responsibility and thus highlight that climate change mitigation needs to be integrated into broader sustainability focused frameworks of action. In Chapter 6, Ross Klein discusses the role of cruise tourism in the context of climate change by reviewing the environmental record of the North American cruise tourism sector, with a particular focus on GHG-related impacts. Distinguishing between the different ship-based sources of pollution, he also explores options for this rapidly increasing type of tourism to mitigate its impact on climate change. The volume then presents three case study chapters. The case studies discuss a variety of mitigation initiatives in tourism while also highlighting the issues faced by practitioners when converting GHG mitigation theory into practice. The first case study (Chapter 7) documents the extensive mitigation initiatives implemented by the New Zealand Youth Hostels Association in its nationwide network of hostels and the obstacles identified by the organization. The second case study (Chapter 8) also presents a New Zealand-based tourism business, KEA Campers, and discusses the initiatives and diverse challenges experienced by a campervan operator in seeking to lower the company’s GHG emissions. The last chapter in this section (Chapter 9) is a case study contributed by Philips Hospitality that discusses innovation in emissions reducing lighting technology for the hospitality sector and elaborates on a number of successful European initiatives. Section Three: Destinations, Tourists and NGOs In Chapter 10, Pearce and Schott adopt a destination perspective in exploring the public and private sector responses to the implications of climate change

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from the perspective of a tourism-dependent island nation––New Zealand. In line with the earlier highlighted need for greater collaboration the chapter examines collaborative public–private sector responses and draws out the most critical direct and indirect implications of climate change for New Zealand. Chapter 11 focuses on economics-based methods for estimating the tourism industry’s GHG footprint by using the example of Australia. Dwyer, Forsyth, Hoque, and Spurr also include tourism-related activities in their estimation method and propose a production-based approach for sectorbased GHG footprint analysis. In contrast to this quantitative perspective, Chapter 12 is based on a qualitative methodology and explores the level of concern about climate change exhibited during discussions in cyber communities. Burns, Bibbings, and Wrobel refer to the technique as cyberethnography and support their analysis by segmenting cyber-community members into different types based on the level and nature of concern about climate change. Chapter 13 adds the practical perspective to this section by presenting a case study about a Canadian NGO concerned about climate change in the context of tourism. With this grassroots initiative Dodds and Graci illustrate the successes as well as constraints of alerting consumers to the complexities of climate change and its interaction with tourism. Section Four: Adapting and Innovating Tourism Products and Destinations In Chapter 14, Matzarakis highlights some of the recent advances in climatology that are valuable for tourism academics and practitioners alike. He promotes the need for more refined measures when assessing the impact of climate on humans and presents the Climate-Tourism-InformationScheme (CTIS) as an option before suggesting a range of adaptation techniques available in response to heat stress conditions as forecast by the CTIS, using the example of Spain. Chapter 15 deals with the future of tourism in the Baltic States under conditions of climatic change. In this chapter, Agarin, Jetzkowitz and Matzarakis develop regional climate forecasts for the Baltic States and explore destination development strategies to adapt and potentially benefit from climatic changes. As a means of demonstrating the severity of climate change-related issues facing humankind and the future of tourism Yeoman and Wouters propel the reader to the year 2050 in Chapter 16. They apply scenario planning to the urbanized area of Los Angeles and seek to develop a picture of what the implications of longer term climatic change projections could look like in the context of tourism. Chapter 17 concludes this section with a case study of GreenEarth.travel and its innovative initiatives in mitigating tourism-related GHG

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

emissions. The example of the Tourism Earth Lung initiative in Sri Lanka is presented and discussed as an option for other developing countries. Finally, Chapter 18 draws the volume’s diverse contributions together and provides some concluding words about the issues and actions emerging from this analysis of the interaction between tourism and climate change and the related implications.

PART I CONTEXTUALIZING CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM

Chapter 2

A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Ernesto Rodrı´ guez-Camino Spanish Meteorological Agency, Spain

Abridgement: The observed increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases since the industrial period, due to human activities, is very likely causing the warming of the climate system. Anthropogenic warming and rising sea levels will continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized, different types of adaptation measures are needed to cope with the inevitable change. At the same time mitigation measures aiming at decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing carbon sinks must be taken in order to reduce the potential extent of global warming. This chapter covers the main aspects of the current understanding of the physical basis of climate change, including the directly measured observations and estimated projections for the 21st century. Causes and effects of climate change are also addressed. Finally, the main uncertainties of climate projections and a few general considerations on the different ways to respond to the climate change issue are discussed. Keywords: impacts; adaptation; mitigation; uncertainties; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 27–48 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003005

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

INTRODUCTION Climate change is probably one, if not the most serious problem that mankind faces. The United Nations (UN) Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, in his opening remarks to the UN Climate Change Summit Plenary (September 2009) stated that ‘‘climate change is the pre-eminent geopolitical and economic issue of the 21st century’’. It is also an extraordinarily difficult issue due to the complex network of anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and responses to climate change, and their linkages. To make the problem more complicated, political actions addressing climate change have to take other closely related challenges in the socioeconomic domain into consideration, such as sustainable development and equity issues. The term climate change in this chapter refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Once the problem and the consequences of climate change are recognized different, parallel lines of action can be followed in response to it. Firstly, one should act directly on the causes of climate change. As the warming of the climate system is very likely caused by the steady increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the beginning of the industrial era, mitigation strategies must be pursued to aim at reducing GHG emissions and expanding and enhancing carbon sinks. Secondly, as there is an already committed warming due to the past emissions and to the big inertia of the climate system, one should address effects of climate change by adapting the different ecosystems and socioeconomic sectors that are sensitive to climatic conditions. Finally, other instruments, such as development and adoption of new technologies and financial tools, can help to address the problem. A good knowledge of the physical basis of climate change, including observations and scenario projections, is the very first step to studying the impacts it has on different sectors and the subsequent planning of adaptation. This chapter will introduce the most comprehensive and authoritative reports on climate change as produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and discuss the observed climatic changes, their causes, and future projections. The response of societies to climate change by adapting to its impacts and by reducing GHG emissions (mitigation) will

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also be briefly addressed before projection uncertainties are reviewed and conclusions are drawn.

CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Due to the high complexity of the climate change issue, policy makers need an objective source of information about the causes of climate change, its potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences, and the adaptation and mitigation options to respond to it. To meet this need, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program established the IPCC in 1988. The IPCC does not conduct any research nor monitor climate-related data or parameters. Instead, its role is to assess, on a comprehensive, objective, open, and transparent basis, the latest scientific, technical, and socioeconomic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they need to deal objectively with policy related scientific, technical, and socioeconomic factors. They should be of high scientific and technical standards, and aim to reflect a range of views, expertize, and wide geographical coverage. The IPCC provides its reports at regular intervals and they immediately become standard works of reference, widely used by policymakers, experts, and students. The findings of the First IPCC Assessment Report of 1990 played a decisive role in leading to the UNFCCC, which was opened for signature in the Rio de Janeiro Summit in 1992 and entered into force in 1994. It provided the overall global policy framework for addressing the climate change issue. The IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995 provided key input for the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The Third Assessment Report of 2001 as well as Special and Methodology Reports provided further information relevant for the development of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 provided key input for the negotiations of a post-Kyoto agreement under the UNFCCC. Most of the information summarized in this chapter comes, unless otherwise stated, from the three volumes (IPCC 2007a, 2007b, 2007c) corresponding to the three working groups of the last Fourth Assessment Report IPCC report and its Synthesis Report (IPCC 2007d). Detailed information on the IPCC organization and its reports is available at http://www.ipcc.ch. The UN Environment Program (2009) guide also provides a popular and simplified view of the last IPCC assessment report.

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

Observed Climate Change and its Causes Climate change is not a subject of speculation. It is directly measured by observations. In the words of the IPCC (2007a:5), the current ‘‘warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea levels’’ (Figure 1). The IPCC (2007a) stated that 11 of the 12 years (1995–2006) ranked among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). The global surface temperature time series, compiled jointly by the Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre (Brohan, Kennedy, Harris, Tett and Jones 2006) and updated graphics in (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/), allows for the previous statement to be extended: 13 of the 14 years (1995–2008) rank among the 14 warmest since systematic observation began. The warming trend over the previous century was reported as 0.61C (0.4– 0.81C) in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report published in 2001. The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007 increases the value up to 0.741C (0.57–0.951C) for the trend in the previous century (the uncertainty ranges refer to 90% confidence intervals). The temperature increase is widespread across the world but is most evident in the northern Polar Regions. Warming of the climate system has been detected on the Earth’s surface and up in the atmosphere, as well as in the upper few hundred metres of the oceans, hence the land has warmed faster than the oceans. Sea levels across the globe have risen in a way consistent with the warming—since 1961 at an average of 1.8 (1.3–2.3) mm/yr, and since 1993 at 3.1 (2.4–3.8) mm/yr. For the 20th century, the average rate was 1.7 (1.2–2.2) mm/yr (IPCC 2007a). The expansion of water as it warms, and the melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the polar ice sheets are all contributing to the rise, with the expansion due to warming being the biggest contributor. The extent to which decreases in snow and ice have been observed are also consistent with the warming of the climate. Satellite data recorded since 1978 show the annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% (2.1–3.3%) each decade, with larger decreases in summer (IPCC 2007a). Mountain glaciers and average snow cover have declined in both hemispheres. According to the information evaluated by the IPCC, from 1900 to 2005 precipitation increased significantly in parts of the Americas, northern Europe, and northern and central Asia, but declined in the Sahel (transition belt between the Sahara desert to the north and the slightly less arid savanna

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Figure 1. Changes in Temperature, Sea Level, and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Source: IPCC (2007a) reproduced by permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is Figure SPM.3 in the publication Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (dark gray) and satellite (lighter gray, from about 1990) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March–April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961–1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal average values whereas circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c)

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to the south), the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of southern Asia. The IPCC also states that it is likely (with probability of occurrence higher than 66%, to use the IPCC terminology) that the global area affected by drought has increased since the 1970s (IPCC 2007a). Additionally, cold days, nights, and frosts have become less frequent over most land areas in the past 50 years, and hot days and nights have become more frequent. The IPCC considers that it is likely that heat waves have become more common over most land areas that heavy precipitation events have increased over most areas, and that since 1975 extreme high sea levels have increased worldwide (IPCC 2007a). According to the IPCC, ‘‘most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (with probability of at least 90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations’’ (2007a:10). It is likely that there has been significant human-caused warming over the past 50 years, averaged over each continent except Antarctica. Over that period the combined effect of natural variations in solar radiation and volcanic eruptions would have produced cooler temperatures, not warmer. There has in fact been a cooling influence on the atmosphere caused by aerosols, some of them caused naturally, for instance by volcanic eruptions, and some by human activities, principally emissions of sulfate, organic and black carbon, nitrate, and dust. These aerosols reflect some of the sun’s rays back to space or absorb some of them, in either case preventing them from reaching the surface of the Earth. Discernible human influences extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns (IPCC 2007a). The observed patterns of warming, including greater warming over land than over the ocean, and their changes over time, are only simulated by models that include anthropogenic forcing. Simulations of the 20th century climate produced with an ensemble of models using only natural forcing (due to solar activity and volcanoes) and on the other hand with an ensemble of models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings show that only the band of simulations including the anthropogenic forcing matches reasonably the observed evolution of mean global temperature. Moreover, both bands of simulations (with and without anthropogenic forcing) tend to clearly diverge over most of the continents mainly during the last decade (Figure 2). The ability of coupled climate models to simulate the observed temperature evolution on each of the six continents provides stronger evidence of human influence on the climate.

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Projections of Climate Change Coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), the most complex and realistic representations of the climate system currently available, are the basic tools in conjunction with GHG and sulfate aerosols emission scenarios to study and simulate climate evolution for impact, adaptation, and mitigation purposes. AOGCMs can be described as a numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for its most relevant properties. The atmosphere and ocean general circulation model components are threedimensional, time-dependent models that include a representation of the equations of motion, equation of thermodynamics, perfect gas equation, and conservation equations for air and water on a sphere. In addition to atmosphere and ocean components, the term AOGCM is often applied to computer models that include land surface and sea ice model components. The model components are coupled in the sense that fluxes are regularly exchanged between the different model components as they march forward in time. AOGCMs provide a relatively comprehensive representation of the climate system. AOGCMs are applied, as a research tool, to study and simulate the climate, but also for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal, and interannual climate predictions. Future GHG emissions are the product of very complex dynamic systems, determined by driving forces such as demographic development, socioeconomic development, and technological change. Their future evolution is highly uncertain. Scenarios are alternative images of how the future may unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties. They assist in climate change analysis, including climate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. The possibility that any single emissions path will occur as described in scenarios is highly uncertain. The IPCC’s (2000) ‘‘Special Report on Emissions Scenarios’’ (SRES) explores alternative development pathways considering no implementation of climate policies to mitigate climate change. This will cause a continuous growth of global GHG emissions over the next few decades. The IPCC projects an increase in global GHG emissions from 25 to 90% between 2000 and 2030 (there is a wide margin of uncertainty because of the very different assumptions made in each socioeconomic scenario considered by the IPCC). It expects that fossil fuels, oil, coal, and gas to continue to dominate the

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energy mix until beyond 2030, regardless of the scenario. Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates will cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during this century that would be larger than those observed during the 20th century. The SRES take into account demographic, economic, and technological factors and their resulting GHG emissions. The emissions projections based on these different assumptions are widely used in forecasting future climate change, vulnerability, and impacts. As there are no objective ways of determining the probability of one scenario over another one, the IPCC assumes that all scenarios are equally likely (IPCC 2000). AOGCMs estimate that for the next two decades a global warming of about 0.21C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. This projection is consistent with observed values in previous decades of about 0.21C per decade, strengthening confidence in near-term projections. Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.11C per decade would be expected, due mainly to the slow response of the oceans. According to IPCC (2007a), in the near-term warming differs very little between emissions scenarios because a significant fraction of the warming over the next two to three decades will be due to emissions that have already occurred, whereas in the longer term future (toward the end of the 21st century), different GHG emission levels have an increasing influence on the amount of warming. For example, the best estimate for the low-emission scenario (B1, following SRES nomenclature) is 1.81C (likely range is 1.1–2.91C), and the best estimate for the high-emission scenario (A1FI) is 4.01C (likely range is 2.4–6.41C) (Figure 3). Other projected changes include wind-pattern changes, precipitation, and some changes in weather extremes and sea ice. Regional-scale changes

Figure 2. Global and Continental Temperature Change Source: IPCC (2007a) reproduced by permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is Figure SPM.4 in the publication Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. Comparison of observed continental and globalscale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings. Decadal averages of observations are shown for the period 1906–2005 (black line) plotted against the center of the decade and relative to the corresponding average for 1901–1950. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50%. Darker-gray shaded bands show the 5–95% range for 19 simulations from five climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Lighter-gray shaded bands show the 5–95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings

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Figure 3. Multimodel Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming Source: IPCC (2007a) reproduced by permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is Figure SPM.5 in the publication Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the 71 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The lower line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The vertical bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the gray bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints

include mostly warming over land and highest at the northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic, contraction of the area covered by snow, increases in the depth at which most permafrost will thaw, and a decrease in the extent of sea ice, increase in the frequency of extremes of heat, heat waves and heavy precipitation, a likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity, a poleward shift by storms outside the tropics, increases in precipitation in high latitudes, and likely decreases in most

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subtropical land regions. Likely ranges for the global average in rising sea levels at the end of the 21st century (2090–2099) are also provided by the IPCC based on model projections. For example, the likely range for the lowemission scenario (B1) is 0.18–0.38 m, and the likely range for the highemission scenario (A1FI) is 0.26–0.59 m (IPCC 2007a). However, it should be taken into account that many of the processes related to accelerated glacial melt around the polar ice sheets are not included in current models. Therefore, significantly faster rising sea levels than projected by models could eventuate and IPCC estimations should be considered only as a lower boundary for rising sea levels (Pfeffer et al 2008). The climate could also experience changes that are abrupt or irreversible. These abrupt changes in climate have also been named ‘‘tipping points’’, making use of the idea that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have large, longterm consequences for a system. For example, a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system (Lenton, Held, Kriegler et al 2008). Abrupt climate change on time scales of a decade or so is frequently thought of as involving ocean circulation changes. Based on current model simulations, it is very likely that the Atlantic part of the large-scale ocean circulation driven by global density gradients (the so-called Meridional Overturning Circulation) will slow down during the 21st century. Nevertheless, temperatures in the region are projected to increase. It is very unlikely that this circulation will undergo a large abrupt transition during the 21st century, although longer term changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation cannot be assessed with confidence (IPCC 2007a). On longer time scales, ice sheet and ecosystem changes may also play a role. If a large-scale abrupt change in climate were to occur, its impact could be significant. Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land and/or the thermal expansion of seawater over very long time scales could cause sea levels to increase by meters, with the greatest impacts on coasts, river deltas, and islands, implying major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas. Complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels by 7 m and could be irreversible. Figure 4 shows a map of potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system. They could be triggered this century and would undergo a qualitative change within this millennium. Observed and Projected Effects of Climate Change Human-caused warming over the last three decades has had a discernible global influence on the changes observed in many physical and biological

Figure 4. Tipping Elements in the Climate System

Source: Lenton et al (2008) reproduced by permission of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. Potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system overlain on global population density. Subsystems indicated could exhibit threshold-type behavior in response to anthropogenic climate forcing, where a small perturbation at a critical point qualitatively alters the future fate of the system

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systems. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Nevertheless, it must be stressed that isolating climate change impacts from changes resulting from other drivers encounters serious difficulties. According to the IPCC (2007b), of the more than 29,000 observational data series, from 75 studies that show significant change in many physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a response to warming. However, it must be taken into account that the scarcity of information from many regions of the world prevents the appropriate documentation of many impacts, which does not necessarily mean there have been none. Changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground have with great certainty increased the number and size of glacial lakes, increased ground instability in mountain and other permafrost regions, and led to changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems. There is also great certainty that some hydrological systems have also been affected through increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier and snow-fed rivers, and effects on thermal structure and water quality of warming rivers and lakes. In terrestrial ecosystems, earlier timing of spring events and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges are with very great certainty linked to recent warming. In some marine and freshwater systems, shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton, and fish abundance are with high confidence associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels, and circulation (IPCC 2007b). Recent studies compiled in Fourth Assessment Report have enabled a more systematic understanding of the timing and magnitude of impacts by systems and sectors from the point of view of vulnerability related to differing amounts and rates of climate change. Certain systems and sectors are likely to be especially affected by climate change (IPCC 2007b). They include: terrestrial ecosystems including tundra, boreal forest, and mountain regions because of sensitivity to warming; Mediterranean-type ecosystems because of reduction in rainfall; and tropical rainforests where precipitation declines; coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and salt marshes, due to multiple stresses; marine ecosystems including coral reefs due to multiple stresses; and the sea ice biome because of sensitivity to warming. Also impacted, according to the IPCC report (2007b), will be: water resources in some dry regions at midlatitudes and in the dry tropics, due to changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration, and in areas dependent on snow and ice melt; agriculture in low-latitudes, due to reduced water availability; lowlying coastal systems, due to threat of sea level rise and increased risk from

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extreme weather events; and human health in populations with low adaptive capacity. The report continued to identify regions that are likely to be especially affected by climate change (IPCC 2007b). They are: the Arctic, because of the impacts of high rates of projected warming on natural systems and human communities; Africa, because of low adaptive capacity and projected climate change impacts; small islands, where there is a high exposure of populations and infrastructures to projected climate change impacts; and Asian and African mega deltas, due to large populations and high exposure to rising sea levels, storm surges, and river flooding. Within other areas, even those with high incomes, some people (such as the poor, young children, and the elderly) can be particularly at risk, and also some areas and some activities. World climate changes will have a direct impact on many tourism activities and destinations that could have far reaching implications, not just for the tourism industry but also for other related economic sectors. Two examples can be mentioned to illustrate this impact: seaside and mountain tourism. Coastal regions seem likely to suffer damage from beach erosion, higher sea levels, sea surges, and storms, directly affecting touristic activities. On the other hand, winter sports in mountain regions will probably diminish. The season will shorten, causing demand pressures on highaltitude resorts that in turn could raise environmental pressures and cause further damage. Tourism will also suffer from indirect impacts on other sectors closely related with tourism such as water resources and human health; editor’s note: for more detailed discussions of the likely impacts of climate change on tourism see Chapters 1 and 3. The concept of climate change can be approached not only from the viewpoint of vulnerability, either for sectors or for regions, but also from that of climate response. In this latter case, some regions have a climate that is especially responsive to global change. Figure 5 shows the distribution of a Regional Climate Change Index based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability (Giorgi 2006). This comparative index is designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot-Spots. In particular, the characterization of climate response-based Hot-Spots can provide key information to identify and investigate primary processes of regional climate change. The two most prominent Hot-Spots emerging from this analysis are the Mediterranean and north-eastern Europe regions. The greatest contribution of the Mediterranean region to this index is given by a large decrease in

Figure 5. Regional Climate Change Index for 26 Regions

Source: Giorgi (2006) reproduced by permission of American Geophysical Union. Based on 20 coupled AOGCMs and 3 IPCC Emission Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1)

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mean precipitation and an increase in precipitation variability during the dry (warm) season. The main contributions of north-eastern Europe to the Regional Climate Change Index are from a large increase in dry (cold) season precipitation, a large change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change and an increase in precipitation interannual variability. Responses to Climate Change Societies can respond to climate change by adapting to its impacts and by reducing GHG emissions (mitigation). Whereas in the first option, adaptation, the response addresses the effects of climate change; in the second, mitigation, the response addresses the causes of climate change. Adaptation measures will always be required due to the inertia of the Earth climate system and also because of the ecosystems and socioeconomic systems. Even if the concentrations of GHGs and aerosols were held fixed at the current values, the climate system would continue to respond, resulting in a warming trend of 0.11C per decade over the next two decades. This socalled committed climate change is due to the strong coupling between atmospheric processes to the oceans and their thermal inertia. Societies have a long record of managing the impact of weather- and climate-related events. Nevertheless, additional adaptation measures will be required to reduce the adverse impacts of projected climate change and variability, regardless of mitigation action undertaken over the next few decades. Moreover, vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by other stresses such as poverty, rapid population growth, limited technological development, unequal access to resources, and food insecurity (IPCC 2007b). Some planned adaptation is already occurring mainly in the context of the current climate variability, but more extensive adaptation is required to reduce vulnerability to the projected climate change. Adaptation capacity is intimately connected to social and economic development but is unevenly distributed across and within societies. Comprehensive estimates of cost and benefits of adaptation at the global level are still limited in number. However, based on the growing number of studies, it can be stated with high confidence that there are viable adaptation options that can be implemented in sectors sensitive to climate change at low cost and/or with high benefit– cost ratios (IPCC 2007b).The IPCC states that GHG emissions have grown since preindustrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 (IPCC 2007c). With the current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will

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continue to grow over the next few decades. However, different types of studies indicate that there is high agreement and much evidence of substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that could offset the project growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels. No single technology can provide all of the mitigation potential in any sector. In order to stabilize the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, emissions would need to peak and decline thereafter. The lower the stabilization level, the more quickly this peak and decline would need to occur. Mitigation efforts over the next two or three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization level. Besides, postponing emission reductions is potentially very costly. It implies more emissions now leading to greater and more rapid temperature increases and, therefore, greater impacts and adaptation costs; locking in high-carbon infrastructure and delaying clean technological development; and more drastic cuts in emissions are required later on. Greater near-term emissions lock us into greater climate change requiring greater costs from climate impacts and more investment in adaptation. Furthermore, they lead to a faster rate of climate change with greater challenges for adaptation (Stern 2007). Climate Change Projections Downscaled for Impact Studies There is an increasing need for detailed, high-resolution regional information regarding climate evolution. Such information is needed by scientists in disciplines that require climate information, policy makers, and by those assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Although climate change projections must necessarily be undertaken with global models, such models will never have sufficient spatial detail for all applications due to the limited availability of computing resources. Therefore, techniques are needed for downscaling global climate projections and producing fine-scale regional climate information. The generation of downscaled climate change projections is a prerequisite for evaluating impacts to climate sensitive socioeconomic sectors and ecological systems. The final objective of such evaluation is to design strategies of adaptation for each socioeconomic sector to the unavoidable effects of climate change. State-of-the-art climate models have resolutions ranging from 150 to 300 km. In order to accommodate projections produced by global climate models at regional or even local features, a variety of downscaling techniques can be applied. These techniques adapt global model outputs

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to the physiographic characteristics of a certain region or point. All downscaling techniques make use of the projections provided by global models, adding small-scale details associated to finer information such as on orography and land use. Most downscaling techniques can be grouped into two methods: statistical algorithms and nested regional climate modeling. Both methods have their strengths and weaknesses. Statistical, also called empirical, downscaling is based on the idea that regional climate may be thought of as being conditioned by two factors: the large-scale climatic state and regional/local physiographic features (topography, land-sea distribution, and land use). From this viewpoint, regional or local climate information is derived by first determining a statistical relationship between large-scale climate variables (or predictors) and local variables (or predictands) based on present day climate. Then the predictors from a future climate simulation produced by a global model and the previously obtained statistical relationship are used to estimate the corresponding future local climate characteristics. A range of statistical downscaling models, from regressions to neural networks and analogues, has been developed for regions where sufficiently good data sets are available for model calibration. One of the primary advantages of these techniques is that they are computationally inexpensive, and thus can easily be applied to output from different global models. Another advantage is that they can be used to provide local information, which can be most needed in many climate change impact applications. The major theoretical weakness of statistical downscaling methods is that their basic assumption is not verifiable, for example, that the statistical relationships developed for present day climate also hold under the different forcing conditions of possible future climates. In addition, data with which to develop relationships may not be readily available in remote regions or regions with complex topography. Another caveat is that these empirically based techniques cannot account for possible systematic changes in regional forcing conditions or feedback processes. For further reading on different statistical downscaling methods, their strengths and weaknesses, and their use to generate local and regional climate scenarios see Wilby, Charles, Zorita et al (2004). Dynamical downscaling is based on the use of nested regional climate models (RCMs) driven by time-dependent lateral meteorological conditions and surface boundary conditions provided from global models. The basic strategy is to use the global model to simulate the response of the global circulation to large-scale forcings and the RCM to account for smaller scale forcings not resolved by global models (such as complex topographical

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features and land cover inhomogeneity) in a physically based way, and to enhance the simulation of atmospheric circulations and climatic variables at fine spatial scales. RCMs can currently provide high resolution (up to 10 to 20 km) and multidecadal simulations, and are capable of describing climate feedback mechanisms acting at the regional scale. A number of widely used limited area modeling systems have been adapted to, or developed for, climate application. More recently, RCMs have begun to couple atmospheric models with other climate process models, such as hydrology, ocean, sea ice, chemistry/aerosol, and land-biosphere models. Two main theoretical limitations of this technique are the effects of systematic errors in the driving fields provided by global models, and the lack of two-way interactions between the regional and global climate. Depending on the domain size and resolution, RCM simulations can be computationally demanding, which has limited the length of many experiments to date. For further reading on the dynamical downscaling method and on their use to generate regional climate scenarios, see Mearns, Giorgi, Whetton et al (2003). Both downscaling methods should be viewed as complementary, each approach having distinctive strengths and weaknesses. The IPCC (2001, 2007a) concludes that both methods are comparable for simulating current climate. No single downscaling method is superior to the others for all regions, variables, and seasons (Haylock, Cawley, Harpham, Wilby and Goodess 2006). Therefore, a variety of downscaling methods should be applied to explore the uncertainties coming from this additional step in the generation of downscaled projections. Uncertainty of Climate Change Projections All IPCC reports have paid special attention to the treatment of uncertainties and their quantification. The process of generation of climate change projections is characterized by inherent uncertainty coming from a number of sources. Uncertainty in predictions of anthropogenic climate change arises hierarchically in all steps toward a climate downscaled projection. Due to the lack of predictive capacity for changes in solar irradiation (apart from the 11-year cycle) and for volcanic eruptions, this natural forcing is the very first source of uncertainty. The specification of future emissions of GHGs, aerosols and their precursors is also highly uncertain. Future emissions are the product of very complex dynamic systems, determined by driving forces such as demographic development, socioeconomic development, and technological change. Scenarios are alternative

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images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties. The possibility that any single emissions path will occur as described in scenarios is highly uncertain. Besides, for a given emissions scenario, various biogeochemical models are used to calculate concentrations of constituents in the atmosphere and explore this source of uncertainty. Various radiation schemes and parameterizations are required to convert these concentrations to radiative forcing. The response of the different climate system components, such as the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, chemical status of atmosphere and ocean, is calculated in a comprehensive climate model. In addition, the formulation of and interaction with the carbon cycle in climate models introduces important feedbacks that produce additional uncertainties. Uncertainty in the true signal of climate change is introduced both by errors in the representation of Earth system processes in models and by internal climate variability. The effects of internal variability can be quantified by running models many times from different initial conditions, provided that simulated variability is consistent with observations. The effects of uncertainty in the knowledge of Earth system processes can be partially quantified by constructing ensembles of models that sample different parameterizations of these processes. However, some processes may be missing from the set of available models, and alternative parameterizations of other processes may share common systematic biases. Since the ensemble is strictly an ‘‘ensemble of opportunity’’, without sampling protocol, the spread of models does not necessarily span the full possible range of uncertainty, and a statistical interpretation of the model spread is therefore problematic. The use of very large ensembles with multiple options for parameterization schemes and parameter values has proved that the sampling of projections based on the standard multimodel Fourth Assessment Report approach is somehow restrictive and cannot span the full range of plausible model configurations (Stainforth, Aina, Christensen et al 2005). Finally, downscaling methods add another factor of uncertainty in regional climate change that should be explored using different downscaling techniques. Chapters 10 and 11 in IPCC (2007a) include a detailed discussion of uncertainties and their quantification. The IPCC also points out key uncertainties in connection with projections of future climate changes that should always be taken into account when using model projections (IPCC 2007d). Modeled carbon cycle and cloud feedbacks and

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oceanic heat uptake are highly uncertain. Aerosol impacts on the magnitude of the temperature response, on clouds, and on precipitation remain uncertain. Also, the confidence in projections is higher for some variables (temperature) than for others (precipitation), and it is higher for larger spatial scales and longer time averaging periods. Additionally, future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass are a major source of uncertainty that could increase sea level projections. The uncertainty in the penetration of the heat into the oceans also contributes to future sea levels uncertainty. Equally, large-scale ocean circulation changes beyond the 21st century cannot be reliably assessed because of uncertainties in the melt water supply from the Greenland ice sheet and model response to the warming. Understanding of low-probability/high-impact events and the cumulative impacts of sequences of smaller events is generally also limited. Ultimately, projections of climate change and its impacts beyond about 2050 are strongly scenario- and model-dependent, and improved projections would require improved understanding of sources of uncertainty and enhancements in systematic observation networks. Abrupt climate changes can also take place when a critical threshold of the climate system is crossed. Climate change due to human activities may have the potential to push components of the Earth system past critical states into qualitatively different modes of operation, implying large-scale impacts on human and ecological systems. Some examples that have received recent attention include the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, dieback of the Amazon rainforest or decay of the Greenland ice sheet. Abrupt climate changes have received relatively little attention in the last IPCC report as some of the potential tipping points have not yet been convincingly established in the literature. Also there are substantial gaps in their knowledge and subsequent modeling capacity.

CONCLUSION This chapter summarizes the main features of the physical aspects of climate change. Both observed and projected impacts and scenarios in the 21st century have been presented. Estimated projections for the amount of change depend critically on the evolution of GHG emissions to the atmosphere. Climate change is currently taking place due to the added past GHG emissions since industrial revolution started and the consequent

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increase of GHG concentration in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic warming and rising sea levels will continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if GHG concentrations were to be stabilized, different types of adaptation measures are needed to cope with the inevitable change. The different activity sectors have to design their alternative strategic plans to adapt their activity as a function of a range of warming scenarios. The stabilization of global temperature at one or another value will depend on the degree of commitment of the international agreements aiming to limit global emissions of GHGs. Adaptive capacity is intimately connected to social and economic development, but is unevenly distributed across and within societies. Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all impacts of climate change. Adaptation is necessary both in the short-term and longer term to address impacts resulting from the warming that will occur even for the lowest stabilization scenarios. Sustainable development will be inextricably linked to climate change mitigation and adaptation and in reducing vulnerability. Climate change will also interact at all scales with problems related with global environment and natural resources, like water, soil, and air pollution, health hazards, disaster risk, and deforestation. Their combined impacts may be compounded in the future unless there are integrated mitigation and adaptation measures. On the other side, the mitigation of climate change can create synergies and avoid conflicts with other dimensions of sustainable development. For example, improving energy efficiency and developing renewable energies can improve energy security and reduce local pollution. Reducing deforestation will benefit biodiversity, and afforestation can restore degraded land, manage water runoff, and benefit rural economies, if it does not compete with food production. Similarly, sustainable development practices can enhance both the ability to adapt to and to mitigate climate change, as well as reduce vulnerability to it. Finally, the policies and instruments available to governments for addressing the climate change issues should take into account not only other environmental concerns, but also their cost effectiveness and the ethical aspects. Of special concern among these ethical aspects are the equity issues, such as the projected exposition of many millions of people in Africa, increasing water stress and reduction yields from rain-fed agriculture, the reduction of freshwater availability and the risk from sea-flooding at heavypopulated mega delta regions in Asia, the rising sea levels exacerbating inundation, storm surge, erosion, and other coastal hazards in small island states, etc. Special focus should be placed on the most vulnerable countries and within countries where poor and vulnerable communities live.

Chapter 3

CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM Facing the Challenges Luigi Cabrini World Tourism Organization, Spain

Abridgement: This chapter presents the relationship between climate change and tourism, how they influence each other, as well as how the industry addresses this challenge. The tourism industry has recognized its contribution to global climate change and the need for addressing the problem by applying mitigation policies. Climate change is already defining new realities for consumers, business, and government decisionmaking. Therefore, adaptation measures are also required, especially in tourism that is highly sensitive to climate variability. The need of awareness as well as preparedness at local level has been highlighted by UNWTO, which is spearheading initiatives within the industry under the common framework of the UNFCCC. Keywords: Davos process; adaptation; mitigation scenarios; energy efficiency; poverty alleviation

INTRODUCTION The increase in the average air and ocean temperatures, the decrease in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere due to the melting of snow and ice, and the rising sea levels are examples that support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) statement that ‘‘warming of the climate system is unequivocal’’ (IPCC 2007a:5). Experts have found that the current concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 49–64 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003006

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gas (GHG), and thus the major cause of climate change, far exceeds preindustrial values. The IPCC concluded that the observed increase in global average atmospheric temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (W90% probability) the result of increasing GHG concentrations from human activities. The tourism industry is especially sensitive to climate variability and change (Becken and Hay 2007; Go¨ssling and Hall 2006a; Scott 2006; UNWTO 2003). Tourism in many regions relies on the climate, which defines the length and quality of tourism seasons. Extreme events, such as heat waves, tropical cyclones, heavy precipitations, or droughts, are likely to become more frequent and intense, and can play an important role in destination choice (IPCC 2007b). Climate change also has a direct impact on resources at destinations. They are therefore faced with the necessity to develop adaptation strategies in order to maintain their economic viability and competitiveness. At the same time, tourism activities contribute to the emission of GHGs. The stakeholders therefore have to participate in the global mitigation efforts.

TOURISM IN THE ERA OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE The concern of the tourism community regarding the challenge of climate change has visibly increased over the last few years. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and several partner organizations convened at the First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Djerba, Tunisia, in 2003. The Djerba Declaration recognized the complex interlinkages between the tourism industry and climate change, which established a framework for future research and policy making on adaptation and mitigation. The climate affects a wide range of environmental resources that are critical attractions for tourism, such as snow conditions, wildlife productivity and biodiversity, and water levels and quality. The climate also has an important influence on environmental conditions, which can deter tourists. These include infectious diseases, wildfires, insects or water-borne pests (e.g., jellyfish, algae blooms), and extreme events such as tropical cyclones. In a 2008 report, UNWTO, United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) identified four broad categories of climate impacts that affect tourism destinations, their competitiveness and sustainability.

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The first category is direct climatic impacts. Climate is a principal resource for tourism, as it codetermines the suitability of locations for a wide range of activities. It is a principal driver of global seasonality in tourism demand, and has an important influence on operating costs, such as heating– cooling, snow-making, irrigation, food and water supply, and insurance expenses. Thus, changes in the length and quality of climate-dependent tourism seasons (sun-and-sea or winter sports holidays) could have considerable implications for competitive relationships between destinations and therefore the profitability of tourism enterprises. The second category is indirect environmental change impacts. A wide range of climate-induced environmental changes will have profound effects on tourism at the destination and regional level. Changes in water availability, biodiversity loss, reduced landscape aesthetic, altered agricultural production, increased natural hazards, coastal erosion and inundation, damage to infrastructure, and the increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases will all impact tourism to varying degrees. The third category of impacts is concerned with mitigation policies on tourist mobility. Seeking to reduce GHG emissions, national or international mitigation policies are likely to have an impact on tourist flows. They will lead to an increase in transport costs and may foster environmental attitudes that lead tourists to change their travel patterns (shift transport mode or destination choices). There has been a substantial amount of recent media coverage on this topic, especially in relation to air travel. Long-haul destinations can be particularly affected, and officials in Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the Caribbean have expressed concern that mitigation policies could adversely impact their national tourism economy (Bartlett 2007; Caribbean Hotel Association and Caribbean Tourism Organization 2007). The fourth category is indirect societal change impacts. Climate change is thought to pose a risk to future economic growth and to the political stability of some nations (Barnett 2001; German Advisory Council on Global Change 2007; IPCC 2007b; Stern 2007). According to the Stern Report on the Economics of Climate Change, although a global warming of only 11C might benefit global gross domestic product, greater climate change would eventually damage economic growth at the global scale. This leads to the stark conclusion that unmitigated climate change could cause a reduction in consumption per capita of 20% later in the 21st century or early 22nd century. Any such reduction of global gross domestic product due to climate change would reduce the discretionary wealth available for tourism purposes and thus have negative implications for its anticipated future growth.

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However, there has been no in-depth interpretation of the Stern Report (2007) for the tourism industry. The integrated effects of climate change will have far-reaching consequences for tourism businesses and destinations. Changes in temperatures and other important features of climate will manifest themselves differently across the regions of the world, generating both negative and positive impacts. These impacts will vary substantially by market segment and geographic region. The implications of climate change for any tourism business or destination will also partially depend on the impacts on their competitors. A negative impact in one part of the tourism system may constitute an opportunity elsewhere. Consequently, there will be winners and losers at the business, destination, and national level. There is a limited understanding of how regional climates may change. However, by region the IPCC predicts a more significant warming than the global annual mean throughout the African Continent in all seasons, and drier subtropical regions warming more than the moister tropics (IPCC 2007a). Warming is expected to be largest in northern Europe in winter and in the Mediterranean region in summer. The risk of summer drought is likely to rise in Central Europe and in the Mediterranean area. The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten, and snow depth is likely to decrease in most of Europe. Intense precipitation events in parts of South and East Asia are very likely to increase their frequency, while heat waves in summer are expected to be of longer duration, more intense and more frequent in East Asia. In North America, the most significant warming is likely to occur in northern regions in winter and in the southwest in summer. Snow season length and snow depth are very likely to decrease in most of North America, except in the northernmost part of Canada where maximum snow depth is likely to increase. Warming in South America is likely to be similar to the global mean warming while it is expected to be larger in Central America. It is uncertain how annual and seasonal mean rainfall will change over northern South America, including the Amazon Forest. It is very likely that extremes of high daily temperatures will be more frequent in Australia and New Zealand; and extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase in most of the region. Warming in the Arctic and the Antarctic is very likely to be more significant than the global annual mean. Arctic sea ice is very likely to decrease in its extent and thickness. However, changes in the Arctic Ocean circulation are uncertain. Sea levels are expected to rise during the century around the small islands of the Caribbean Sea, Indian Ocean, and northern Pacific Oceans. This rise in sea levels is not expected to be geographically homogeneous (IPCC 2007a; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008).

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A summary assessment of the most at-risk destinations for the mid-tolate 21st century is shown in Figure 1. Due to the very limited information available on the potential impacts of climate change in some regions, this qualitative assessment must be considered with caution. However, studies that have explored the potential impact of altered climate conditions for tourist demand suggest that the geographic and seasonal redistribution of tourist demand may be very large for individual destinations (Berritella, Bigano, Roson and Tol 2006; Hamilton, Maddison and Tol 2005a; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008). A gradual shift in preferred destinations to higher latitudes and to higher elevations in mountain areas is very likely to occur. Tourists from temperate nations that currently dominate international travel will be likely to spend more holidays in their home country or nearby, adapting their travel patterns to take advantage of new climatic opportunities closer to home. Tourism seasons are expected to be altered with possibly more tourists traveling in shoulder seasons, or in winter seasons, as the climate will be more appealing. These changes in travel patterns may have important implications, including proportionally more tourist spending in temperate nations and proportionally less spending in warmer nations, which are currently frequented by tourists from temperate regions. The effects of climate change are likely to alter major intraregional tourism flows where climate is of vital importance, including Northern Europe to the Mediterranean and the Caribbean, North America to the Caribbean, and to a lesser extent Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia. However, when considering tourism on a global scale the effect of climate change on demand is expected to be limited as there is no evidence to suggest that it will directly lead to a significant reduction in the global volume of tourists. Tourism’s Contribution to Climate Change Tourism uses energy in several activities including transportation and accommodation. As in many other sectors of the economy, most energy use in tourism is based on fossil fuels. Climate change is caused by GHGs emitted into the atmosphere, primarily through the burning of fossil fuels. Therefore, the tourism industry is not exempt from contributing to the process of global warming as recognized by the UNWTO. CO2 is the GHG that contributes the most to climate change, accounting for an estimated 60% of the warming caused by GHG emissions (Simpson, Go¨ssling, Scott, Hall and Gladin 2008). The reported amount of CO2 emissions attributed to tourism varies considerably depending on, among

Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008)

Figure 1. Geographic Distribution of Major Climate Change Impacts Affecting Destinations

54 Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions

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others, the definition of what constitutes the industry. According to the UNWTO’s definition, tourism refers to ‘‘y the activities of persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not related to the exercise of an activity remunerated from within the place visited’’. Applying this definition, emissions from tourism, including the three main subsectors—transportation, accommodation, and activities— were estimated to represent close to 5% of global CO2 emissions in 2005 (UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008). Of the total CO2 emissions contributed by tourism in that year, transport generated around 75%, with approximately 40% being caused by air transport alone. CO2 is not the only cause of climate change as other GHGs and the so-called radiative effect also make significant contributions to global warming. However, there are no precise calculations of these additional impacts. Table 1 shows the estimated emissions from global tourism in 2005, including international and domestic tourist trips, as well as same-day visitors.

Table 1. Estimated CO2 Emissions from Global Tourism in 2005 Activity Type Air transport Car transport Other transport Accommodationf Other activities Total tourism emissions Total worlda Share (%)

CO2 (MT)b 515c 420d 45d 274d 48e 1,302d 26,400 4.9

Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008). a Annual fossil CO2 emissions (including those from cement production), according to IPCC (2007a). b Million metric tons. c Degree of certainty with respect to the data and underlying assumptions is 710%. d Degree of certainty with respect to the data and underlying assumptions is 725%. e Degree of certainty with respect to the data and underlying assumptions is +100%/50%. f Internationally, more than 80 different accommodation categories can be identified, including hotels, hostels, motels, pensions, bed and breakfast, self-catering accommodation, bungalows, vacation homes, holiday villages, campsites and farms, to give just some examples (Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008).

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Mitigation Policies and Measures Tourism-related emissions are projected to continue to grow under ‘‘business-as-usual’’ conditions. Mitigation is thus of particular importance. Mitigation policies need to consider several dimensions, such as the need to stabilize the global climate, the right of people to rest, recovery, and leisure, and attaining the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Agreed by all 191 member states of the United Nations in 2000, the eight MDGs set a series of time-bound targets for the 21st century aimed at solving urgent problems affecting billions of people around the world. UNWTO states that tourism, which has become one of the most dynamic economic sectors, is in a very good position to contribute to the MDGs, especially the first one on halving the number of people living in extreme poverty by 2015. Although tourism in least developed countries is still limited, it is growing at a faster pace than in developed countries (see Figure 2). It is already a principal export for many developing countries and Least Developed Countries, and the most significant source of foreign exchange after oil. Its economic potential to contribute to the reduction of poverty in developing countries has been increasingly recognized in recent years. However, the achievement of the MDGs is only possible through the close collaboration of public and private sectors and the civil society, and if all stakeholders work together. Climate change mitigation relates to technological, economic, and sociocultural changes that can lead to reductions in GHG emissions. As the emission reductions required for tourism to contribute meaningfully to the broader targets of the international community are substantial, mitigation should ideally combine various strategies such as voluntary, economic, and regulatory instruments. These can be targeted at different stakeholder groups, including tourists, tour operators, accommodation managers, airlines, manufacturers of cars and aircraft, as well as destination managers. Instruments could also be applied with different emphasis in different countries, so as not to jeopardize the development and poverty reduction opportunity offered by tourism in developing countries. It is possible to distinguish four major mitigation strategies for addressing GHG emissions from tourism (Becken and Hay 2007): One, reducing energy use: This is one of the most essential aspects of mitigation. It can be achieved by changing destination development, management practices, as well as altering transport behavior (increase energy awareness, incentives for customers that use less than average energy,

Source: UNWTO (2010)

Figure 2. International Arrivals and Receipts (US$) for Developing and High Income Countries

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more use of public transport, or shift from car and aircraft to rail and coach). Tour operators can play a key role in this process, as they bundle products and can have considerable influence on generating demand for less carbon-intensive journeys by creating attractive products that meet tourists’ needs and desires. Two, improving energy efficiency: The use of new and innovative technology can significantly reduce emissions and energy demand (i.e., eco-design with passive energy conservation efforts). Three, increasing the use of renewable energy: The substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources is particularly important in island destinations, where energy supply based on fossil fuels is expensive and at risk of supply interruption (i.e., use of photovoltaic panels to provide renewable energy that can be produced independently of fossil fuel supplies). Four, sequestering CO2 through carbon sinks: Within the tourism industry, this is currently practiced through carbon compensation or carbon offsetting, which means that an amount of GHG emissions equal to that caused by a certain activity will be reduced elsewhere (i.e., through reforestation.). In order to estimate how emission pathways in tourism might evolve in the future, a team of experts developed several scenarios considering different mitigation options including the business-as-usual scenario, the technical-efficiency scenario, and the modal-shift/length-of-stay scenario. In the case of the first scenario (which takes into account the UNWTO’s Tourism 2020 Vision forecast of an average 4% annual growth of international tourist arrivals up to 2020), it is estimated that CO2 emissions in global tourism may experience a growth of 161% by 2035. Results of the mitigation scenarios developed are presented in Table 2. Increasing length of stay would save a significant amount of emissions while retaining the total number of guest nights. Further analysis should be carried out on social policies that would contribute to this change in current length of stay trends. Aviation efficiency and growth reduction has important impacts on emission reductions (14% if aviation fuel efficiency is increased to the theoretical limits, and up to 43% if passenger-kilometer are restricted to current levels). Thus, aviation policies are likely to play a crucial role in mitigation. If the maximum assumed technological efficiencies were achieved for all transport modes, accommodations, and activities, this may result in 38% lower emissions. In the case of reducing energy use by a combination of transport modal shifts, shorter haul destinations and

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Table 2. Possible Emission Pathways Based on Mitigation Scenarios ‘‘Technical-efficiency’’ scenario:  Reduction in aviation energy consumption per person-kilometer (pkm) of 50% versus 32% in the ‘‘business-as-usual’’ scenario

 Additional 2% per year reduction in car transport emissions per pkm over the ‘‘business-asusual’’ scenario

 Additional 2% per year reduction in other transport emissions per pkm over the ‘‘businessas-usual’’ scenario

 Additional 2% per year reduction in accommodation emissions per guest night over the ‘‘business-as-usual’’ scenario

 Additional 2% per year reduction in activities emissions per trip over ‘‘business-as-usual’’ scenario

‘‘Modal-shift/length-of-stay’’ scenario:  No further growth in number of trips and pkm in aviation  Growth in rail and coach of 2.4–5% per year to keep growth in the number of trips constant with the ‘‘business-as-usual’’ scenario

 0.5% per year increase in average length of stay instead of a 0.5% reduction per year in the ‘‘business-as-usual’’ scenario Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008).

increasing average length of stay may result in emission reductions of up to 44%. Under the most effective mitigation projection, using a combination of technological efficiencies and energy reduction, the business-as-usual scenario emissions in 2035 could be reduced by 68% as seen in Figure 3 (UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008). To mitigate the contribution of tourism to climate change is a crosscutting issue in many of the programs and initiatives supported by UNWTO. For instance, it coordinates the Hotel Energy Solutions project, which seeks to deliver training, information, and technical support to help small- and medium-sized hotels across the 27 European Union countries to increase their energy efficiency and use of renewable energy. The project aims to achieve an increase of 20% in energy efficiency and of 10% in usage of renewable energy technologies. UNWTO also hosts the secretariat of the Tour Operators’ Initiative for Sustainable Tourism Development, which seeks, among other objectives, to encourage initiatives and efforts to achieve sustainable tourism development across all sectors of the tourism industry.

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions 3500

Mton CO2

3000 2500 -38%

2000

-44%

1500

-68% -

1000 500 0 Baseline

‘Business-asUsual’

2005

2035

‘Technical Efficiency’

‘ModalShift/Length of Stay’

‘Combined’

2035 Mitigation Scenarios

Figure 3. Current Tourism Emissions and Projections for Different 2035 Emissions Scenarios Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008)

Adaptation in the Tourism Industry In order to minimize the risk and to capitalize upon the opportunities triggered by climate change, all tourism businesses and destinations will need to adapt in an economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable manner. Although the capacity of tourism to adapt to climate change is relatively high due to its dynamic nature, it varies substantially both within and between stakeholder groups, depending on financial resources, technical knowledge, and capacity to move into the most favorable areas. Due to tourists’ relative freedom to avoid destinations impacted by climate change or to shift the timing of travel to avoid unfavorable climate conditions, tourists have the greatest adaptive capacity (depending on money, knowledge, and time). Large tour operators, who do not own the infrastructure, are in a better position to adapt to changes at destinations because they can respond to clients’ demand and provide information to influence their choices. Suppliers of services and operators at specific destinations have less adaptive capacity, while communities and operators with large investment in immobile capital assets have the least adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable destinations will require assistance to adapt. The UNWTO particularly supports the least developed countries and small island developing states (SIDS), where persistent poverty and environmental needs are anticipated to exacerbate the adverse consequences of climate change. Adaptive capacity is relatively low in these countries due to limited

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financial resources and technical knowledge. Considering their high dependency of many SIDS on tourism, in order to implement adaptation measures and disseminate good practices, the UNWTO assists in the integration of tourism also as a means of economic diversification into national adaptation strategies through a series of adaptation pilot projects (Maldives) funded by the Global Environmental Facility. The pilot projects are expected to deliver replicable outputs, considering that SIDS and other coastal destinations have similar challenges and face the same major issues including shoreline and beach erosion, reduced water availability, interrupted supply chains, coral bleaching, and physical damage to property due to extreme climatic events. The aim of the projects is to enhance the resilience of the tourism industry to climate change through demonstrating adaptation initiatives that will enhance the sustainability of the natural resources and the capacity of operators and tourism-dependent communities to respond to these challenges. The Davos Process To achieve an efficient and coordinated response to climate change, a close cooperation between international organizations and all the stakeholders involved in tourism is required. Responding to this need and building on the outcomes of the 2003 Djerba Conference, the Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism held in Davos, Switzerland, in October 2007, was a milestone event. Convened by UNWTO, UNEP, and WMO, with the support of the World Economic Forum and the Swiss Government, the conference gathered 450 participants from over 80 countries. Participants included private sector organizations and companies, 22 international organizations, research institutions, nongovernmental organizations, and the media, which attended the event with the aim of ‘‘responding in a timely and balanced way to climate change imperatives in the tourism sector’’ (Davos Declaration 2007). The Davos Declaration acknowledges the reality of climate change, as well as its strong connection with tourism. It recognizes the importance of tourism in the global challenge of climate change and encourages the industry to progressively reduce its GHG emissions contribution through a longterm strategy within the UN framework. The conference called for urgent adoption of mitigation policies and adaptation strategies to encourage sustainable tourism and travel patterns that take into account climate responsiveness. A range of specific actions to be taken by all stakeholders in the industry were set out. Governments, international organizations, tourism

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industry, consumers, research, and communication networks were encouraged to implement these recommendations and to use the UNWTO’s online Climate Change and Tourism Information Exchange Service as a platform to register the pledges and activities toward adaptation and mitigation on an ongoing basis (Davos Declaration 2007; UNWTO 2008a). The importance for the tourism industry to identify consensus measures to address climate change without losing sight of all other priorities, especially poverty alleviation and tourism’s contribution to the MDGs, was reiterated at the Ministers’ Summit on Tourism and Climate Change held in London, on November 13, 2007, and at the UNWTO General Assembly held in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, on November 23–29, 2007. The participants to the Ministers’ Summit on Tourism and Climate Change welcomed the initiatives taken by the tourism industry and strongly endorsed the Davos Declaration, as well as urged all stakeholders to follow its recommendations. In addition, it was stated that there is an urgent need for tourism to adapt to climate change and to mitigate GHG emissions in line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities included in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNWTO 2008a). The key messages arising from this intense debate were transmitted by the SecretaryGeneral of UNWTO to the United Nations Climate Change Summit in Bali on December 12, 2007. The next steps within the United Nations framework included the World Climate Conference-3 that took place in early September 2009, and the UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen (December 2009) where UNWTOled initiatives in the tourism industry (Figure 4). A number of other awareness events and capacity-building initiatives are organized in order to widely spread the knowledge and to stress the importance of taking measures to address climate change. For instance, the seminar on ‘‘Tourism in the Mediterranean: Adapting to Climate Change’’, co-organized with UNEP and held in Cagliari, Italy, on June 8–10, 2009, was designed for decision makers and experts to proactively address the issue of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Another example is the European Travel Council–UNWTO Symposium on ‘‘Tourism & Travel in the Green Economy’’ (September 14–15, 2009, Gothenburg, Sweden), which addressed the issue of how climate change is shaping sustainable consumption and production. The goals of the symposium were to provide clear information to tourism stakeholders on how the follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol will affect the industry, as well as to show possible solutions, at destination level and in the tourism supply chain, to the problems imposed by climate change.

• First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Djerba

2003

• UN Climate Conference in Poznan

• Workshop in Colombia

• Conference in Egypt

• Ministerial Meeting in London

• Seminar in Oxford

2008

• UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen

• Gothenburg Symposium

• World Climate Conference-3 in Geneva

• Cagliari workshop for Mediterranean

2009

Figure 4. Main Events within the Davos Process

• UN Climate Change Summit Bali

• UNWTO General Assembly in Cartagena

• Ministerial Summit in London

• 2 nd International Conference in Davos

2007 • Millennium Development Goals

2015

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CONCLUSION People’s lifestyles, economies, health, and social wellbeing are affected by climate change. All nations and economic sectors will have to face the challenges of climate change. Tourism is not an exception, and indeed it is considered to be a highly climate-sensitive industry due to its close connections to the environment and climate itself. However, it not only suffers from the effects of climate change, but also contributes to it through the emission of GHG, mainly CO2, to the atmosphere. This demands adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at preventing and adapting destinations to the consequences of climate change and at reducing their share of GHG. Although the tourism industry has been adapting its operations to climate change worldwide, using a broad range of technological, educational, and managerial measures, much more needs to be done. The importance for the industry to identify measures to address climate change should not however jeopardize its role in contributing to the achievement of the MDGs, especially poverty alleviation (UNWTO 2008a). A meaningful and effective response to the challenge of climate change must be integrated within the broader agenda of sustainable development.

Acknowledgments Special thanks go to the experts in climate change and tourism (eCLAT network) for their research on which this chapter is based. Alejandro Calvente, Collaborator, Department of Sustainable Development of Tourism (UNWTO) has assisted in the preparation of this chapter.

PART II ISSUES AND ACTIONS IN SUPPLYING TOURISM PRODUCTS IN THE ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Chapter 4

TOURISM TRANSPORT, TECHNOLOGY, AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS Paul Peeters Breda University of Applied Sciences, The Netherlands Technical University Delft, The Netherlands Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands

Abridgement: Technological development from horse-drawn carriages to the new Airbus A380 has led to a remarkable increase in both the capacity and speed of tourist travel. This development has an endogenous systemic cause and will continue to increase carbon dioxide emissions/energy consumption if left unchecked. Another stream of technological research and development aims at reducing pollution and will reduce emissions per passenger-kilometer, but suffers from several rebound effects. The final impact on energy consumption depends on the strength of the positive and negative feedback in the technology system of tourism transport. However, as the core tourism industry including tour operators, travel agencies, and, accommodation has a strong link with air transport, it is unlikely that technological development without strong social and political control will result in delivering the emission reductions required for avoiding dangerous climate change. Keywords: transport; technology; energy efficiency; system dynamics; travel time budget

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 67–90 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003007

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INTRODUCTION The impact of tourism on climate change is dominated by the emissions of tourism transport. About 75% of all emissions are accounted for by the transportation of tourists between their homes and destinations (Dubois, Ceron, Peeters and Go¨ssling 2010; Peeters and Dubois 2010; UNWTOUNEP-WMO 2008:298). In terms of radiative forcing, the measure that directly determines the atmospheric temperature on earth this share could rise to between 81 and 91% (Scott, Peeters and Go¨ssling 2010). Furthermore, it has become clear that the growth of tourism’s contribution to climate change has mainly been caused by growth in tourism transport, particularly in terms of longer distances (Peeters and Dubois 2010). These growing emissions are at odds with global climate policies that require strong emission reductions to avoid dangerous climate change (see an overview of this issue in Scott et al 2010). In 2005, 40% of all touristkilometers traveled were by air, 41% by private car, and the remainder by train, coach, ferries, and cruiseships. In terms of trips the share of air transport is just 17%, with 49% by car, and 34% by other modes of transport (UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008). It is clear that faster transport modes are used over longer distances. Therefore, emissions and radiative forcing caused by these trips follow a different distribution, as shown in Table 1. Clearly, mitigation policies should primarily address the contribution of air transport. The objective of this chapter is first to explore the role of transport technology in tourism’s growth and concomitant emissions. This role can be divided into that of transport technology translating into transport quality (like speed, cost, and comfort) and that of improved transport energy

Table 1. Shares of Emissions and Radiative Forcing of Tourism Transport in 2005 Transport Mode

Air Car Other

CO2 Emissions (MT)

53% 43% 5%

Contribution to Radiative Forcing (RF) (W/m2) RF (excluding cirrus)

RF (including maximum cirrus)

67% 30% 3%

89% 10% 1%

Source: Authors own calculations based on data from UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) updated with figures for radiative forcing from Lee et al (2009).

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efficiency and reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per passengerkilometer (pkm). The dual role of technology is subsequently evaluated by enlisting conceptual models from the field of system dynamics (Forrester 1961; Sterman 2000). Conceptual models, in this case causal loop diagrams (CLDs), will be drawn to illustrate basic relationships between technology, economy, tourism, transport, and energy efficiency/emissions. Some systemic causes for processes underlying current and forecasted emission growth are then identified before energy efficiency enhancing technologies for the main transport modes are discussed in more detail. For a brief introduction to CLDs see Figure 1. A CLD consists of variables and connectors indicated by arrows. The direction and sign of the arrow (+ or ) means that an increase in the independent source variable, keeping

Figure 1. Example and Nomenclature of Causal Loop Diagrams Some Conventions Apply to CLDs: Positive Relationships are Indicated with Arrows with a ‘‘+’’ Sign; Negative Relationships are Indicated by Arrows with a ‘‘’’ Sign; Reinforcing Feedback Loops are Indicated with a ‘‘+’’; Balancing Feedback Loops are Indicated with a ‘‘’’; a Loop Follows the Direction of the Arrows and Can be Clockwise or Anticlockwise

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all other variables equal, will always cause an increase (in form of a ‘‘+’’ sign) or a decrease (in form of a ‘‘’’ sign) in the dependent variable. Technology’s role in solving environmental problems is strongly debated. On one hand, technology critics such as Ju¨rgen Habermas pose the argument that technology is the root cause of unsustainable development, while others view technology to be at the heart of any move toward sustainable development (Mulder 2009). The dual role of transport technology in the development of tourism shows both sides of this discussion. Improved speed, cost, and comfort will stimulate the growth of transport and increase emissions, but are countered by new technology that improves energy efficiency. An interesting balancing feedback loop of the (promise of) technological achievements is that it may impede political action outside the technological domain, which is discussed in the concluding section.

TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT The role of transport technology is unequivocal. ‘‘Each new breakthrough in transport technology y has enabled the traveler to go further, at greater speed, for a cheaper price, and in greater comfort and safety’’ (Prideaux 2000:53). Tourism historians even used transport modes to distinguish between different historical periods (as in Babeau 1885). It is generally assumed that better transport leads to higher volumes of tourists in terms of more trips (Bieger, Wittmer and Laesser 2007). At the destination level this is likely because destinations compete with each other and improved access will generate competitive advantages. However, for global tourism (all destinations together), the accumulated competitive advantage of improved access will be near zero (where one destination gains, the other will lose). This latter observation is important, as insight into the global system is needed to understand tourism’s relationship with the global challenge posed by climate change. To assess the issue a distinction is made between tourism volume measured in number of trips and transport volume measured in pkm. Based on several studies it appears that, on a global scale, the number of trips/annum/capita is linearly related to gross domestic product (GDP)/ capita (Bigano, Hamilton, Lau, Tol and Zhou 2004; Dubois et al 2010; Peeters and Dubois 2010). This means that the global number of trips can be defined as a function of GDP/capita and global population, as shown in

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Figure 2. CLD Representing the Basic Forces in Transport Systems

the upper right hand part of the CLD in Figure 2. With the number of global trips known, the next question is how much tourism transport it will generate in terms of distance traveled. The distribution of distances determines important characteristics of tourism in terms of domestic and international share, the distribution of tourists over the world, and the transport modes used. The basic behavioral hypotheses used to draw the three primary reinforcing causal loops in Figure 2 are: a significant part of a population has the aspiration to increase their range (to travel longer distances), on a population level the total amount of time spent for actually traveling from home to destinations and back is more or less constant

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(travel time budget), and the average amount of money spent on transport per year on a population level is a constant share of income. The first hypothesis means that at least a part of the global population has an aspiration to travel longer distances, or in other words, tends to increase the distance traveled when opportunities arise. That distances do increase is clearly shown by the strong growth of the share of long-haul trips during the past decades (UNWTO 2008b), a growth that is often taken for granted in projections such as in WTO (2000). However, it appeared difficult to find empirical evidence to prove an intrinsic desire of (a part of all) tourists to increase their travel distances. Statements may be assumed from the professional world like ‘‘desire to see the world’’ (Francis 2008) as a loose indication. A study published in 2000 reveals that the decision to change from normal to long-haul holidays ‘‘seems to supply a new and rewarding sense of self’’, ‘‘because long-haul travel is imagined as providing for the accumulation of experience, which is used to re-narrate and represent self-identity’’ (Desforges 2000:936, 942). Another indirect proof may be derived from the fact that income elasticities for short-haul air travel are lower than for long-haul air travel (Graham 2000), meaning that, if given a chance, people tend to spend more on long-haul than on short-haul travel, thus increasing their travel range. Finally, the nearest proof for the hypothesis is given by Nicolau and Ma´s (2006), who found that tourists with an interest in better climate or discovering new places are more prepared to travel longer distances then those seeking tranquility or cultural experiences. In conclusion, the search for longer distances seems to be valid for at least a part of all tourists. The idea of a travel time budget, the second hypothesis, states that the amount of average time spent on transport is more or less constant at the population level. It was first proposed in the 70s, but has since been developed (Gru¨bler 1990; Hupkes 1977, 1982; Metz 2008; Peters 2006; Scha¨fer 1998, 2000; Scha¨fer and Victor 2000). Of course these ideas encountered critique as well (Levinson and Kumar 1995; Mokhtarian and Chen 2004; van Wee, Rietveld and Meurs 2006). Most of these critics discuss what is a definition of ‘‘constant’’. Unfortunately some confusion exists about the definition of travel time budget, as most critics seem to believe that a large individual diversity of travel times cannot be combined with a constancy of average travel time at the higher aggregate level of a population. The average travel time budget per day per capita is some 75 minutes and appears to be valid between 1975 and 1995 for citizens living in places like New Delhi suburbs, Tanzania and Ghana villages, Singapore, United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, and the Netherlands (Scha¨fer

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2000). A constant population level of travel time budget was also found for cities such as Tianjin (China, 1965/66), Kazanlik (Bulgaria, 1965/66), Sao Paolo (Brazil, 1987), Paris (France, 1976), and Warsaw (Poland, 1993) (Scha¨fer and Victor 1999). The third hypothesis, which proposes that travel money budget is a constant share of income, is based on Scha¨fer’s work (1998, 2000; Scha¨fer and Victor 1999, 2000). From these studies it appears that total travel money budget is about 10% of total income. However, in this case the constancy holds only true for GDP/capita above US$5,000 (the income refers to the year 1985; in 2010 dollars the amount would be about double). Below this threshold the share appears to be much lower. This constancy is also based on a wide geographical and temporal range of data. Whether the constant travel time and money budget hypotheses also apply to tourism has not been researched, but these apply to different daily travel motives such as commuting, work-related business trips, and leisure (Scha¨fer 2000). Figure 2 shows the CLD for the tourism transport model. Essentially this diagram depicts the full transport system consisting of different transport modes. Clearly all feedback loops point at growth of transport volumes (measured in pkm). Endogenous drivers are the development of GDP and population volume (upper right corner of the model), together determining the total number of trips. The average distance is determined by both travel time and money budgets. If people have more money they will be able to acquire more kilometers within the constant time budget. This is valid for the whole population, but not for the individual as they can temporarily change the amount of time and money spent on travel. From ‘‘average distance’’ a reinforcing loop boosts the distances traveled (travel time loop). Again, this loop is valid on the level of a population, the whole world, and considers multiyear timescales. If the average distance increases, this will increase the total volume of transport, induce investments in both infrastructure and transport vehicles that, after some time delay (indicated by the double strikethrough lines in the arrows), will improve the speed and thus the average speed. It might seem counter intuitive that more volume can create a higher speed in the system, because, on short-term timescales, volumes that are too high will create congestion and travel delays. However, on a longer timescale the business reaction will be to add infrastructure that will create shortcuts and generally higher quality infrastructure, such as an upgrade from a regional road to a trunk road. For railways, airlines, and bus companies the reaction to higher demand generally is to add capacity, which, when service frequencies are increased, may considerably improve travel times.

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Another reinforcing loop runs through cost of transport. With an increase in speed, operational costs generally reduce because productivity is increased faster than per hour operational costs, allowing for a higher number of kilometers to be sold (e.g., compare rail cost given by Litman (2007) and air transport cost by Tsoukalas, Belobaba and Swelbar (2008)). The existence of this cost reduction loop is also shown by the historical development of travel cost for different modes in the USA (Gru¨bler 1990:236). Airlines consistently reduced costs between 1930 and 1990, while railway costs reduced between 1875 and 1980, but slowly increased after that, most likely caused by the decline of rail transport volumes creating overcapacity and lower efficiency. A final reinforcing loop runs through a shift from slow to fast transport modes and is initiated by the money budget and thus (substantially) increases the speed of tourists. An increase in average travel distance will increase the share of faster modes (Scha¨fer 2000:20 for the USA and Peeters, van Egmond and Visser 2004 for the European Union (EU)). The balancing loop is the ‘‘max speed loop’’ governed by the practical maximum speed on the network, which varies for different transport systems. For walking it is something like 6 km/hr; for running it may be 10– 12 km/hr; and for cycling it may reach an average of almost 30 km/hr for a fit cyclist on an infrastructure that is free of obstacles and traffic lights. For the private car an average of 100 km/hr may be reached when covering relatively large distances as in travel between home and destination. Rail will show a lower average than the car except when origin and destination are near stations of an intercity or high-speed rail line. Air transport’s average speed is limited by the current sound barrier of about 1,000 km/hr maximum cruising speed, though practical speeds are much lower due to time delays for check-in and airport access. For example, Scha¨fer and Victor (1999) give an average gate-to-gate transport speed of 600 km/hr. The balancing max speed loop will act in a way that the system will seek to reach this maximum speed goal, but will never reach it. The diagram shows that new transport systems will be successful only if they offer a higher average speed and at the same time reduce the cost to a competitive level, meaning that the whole transport system is naturally set to achieve ever higher speeds. The next speed revolution may be in supersonic air transport or in space travel. ‘‘There is a significant portion of the public y, who are favorably disposed towards engaging in some form of commercial space tourism flight activity’’ (Crouch, Devinney, Louviere and Islam 2009:451). Space tourism is often thought of as a form of tourism offering a short stay in space itself, but its main asset may

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be to travel between any places on the globe in a matter of hours (Tkatchova 2006).

Pollution-Saving Technological Change Many studies approach the role of technology in reducing environmental impacts by looking at technologies that enhance fuel efficiency and/or reduce emissions per seat-kilometer (skm) (Chapman 2007; Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICCEPT) 2002; IEA 2008; IPCC 2007c; Rajan 2006; Scha¨fer, Heywood, Jacoby and Waitz 2009; World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) 2004; Yang, McCollum, McCarthy and Leighty 2009). However, for the environment the total amount of emissions is the only important outcome, not fuel efficiency or low emission factors. Only a few of the studies mentioned above also consider behavioral changes like modal shift or reduced transport volumes (Gilbert and Perl 2008; IEA 2008; IPCC 2007c; Yang et al 2009). Unfortunately in many cases volume growth outpaces the improvement in efficiency. This is most clearly the case in air transport, where a 70% improvement in fuel efficiency of jet aircraft between 1960 and 2000 (Penner, Lister, Griggs, Dokken and McFarland 1999) did not prevent an increase of CO2 emissions with a factor of over 10 (Sausen and Schumann 2000:33). Why does this happen? Figure 3 shows the existence of rebound effects (see also van Dender 2009). Such rebounds occur when better technology makes a product cheaper causing consumption to increase, thereby reducing the overall beneficial effect of the better technology on pollution. New technology may also remove social norms preventing the use of a product because of its unwanted pollution and thus boost demand for it. Figure 3 shows the main efficiency enhancing loop, and a rebound through the emissions loop. The pollution-saving technology model for tourism transport shown in Figure 3 starts with investment in efficiency enhancing technology that will reduce energy consumption per skm. As this will reduce cost per skm as well, transport volume (pkm) increases. More transport generates funds that can be directed at further improving technology, creating a reinforcing loop that improves efficiency, but not necessarily reduces total emissions as the transport volume loop is also reinforcing. Which of the two loops has the most impact depends on the specifics of the transport system described by the model. A third relevant loop in this system is the attitude loop, a balancing one because an increase in environmental pressure will tend to

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Figure 3. Pollution-Saving Conceptual Model

increase the willingness to invest in pollution-saving technology, which improves efficiency. A General Transport Pollution-Saving Technology Model The amount of energy required to move a person over a certain distance depends on the physical properties, way of use of the vehicle, and on the properties of the energy conversion. The resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions depend on the energy source or fuel used. The physical properties are governed by the laws of physics, while the energy conversion is the domain of the laws of thermodynamics. It is important to realize that humanity will not be able to change these laws (i.e., perpetual motion simply does not exist). Every movement requires energy input and due to the laws of physics the amount of energy per unit distance and weight (pkm) increases

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with speed because energy is required to accelerate and to overcome friction and drag (Scha¨fer et al 2009:103). Generally, all other things being equal, the energy requirement increases proportional to the square of the speed. A zero drag vehicle is not possible as it always has to move through the air and/or overcome tires-to-tarmac (car) or wheels-to-steel (rail) friction. Still, modern cars have a relatively low overall efficiency (the amount of energy dissipated at the wheels divided by the energy content of the fuel burnt) of about 10– 12% (Smil 2008:265). The conversion of energy is governed by the laws of thermodynamics, which indicate that an internal combustion engine’s maximum efficiency will be about 50%. Current practical efficiencies are in the order of 20–30% (Scha¨fer et al 2009:104), but will never reach the ideal 50%. Air transport is confronted with stronger constraints because the same aerodynamic forces that lift the aircraft also cause induced (lift related) drag. Induced drag is inversely proportional to the wing aspect ratio (the ratio between span and average chord of a wing): the larger the aspect ratio the lower the induced drag (Prandtl 1924; Torenbeek 1982). Only an infinite aspect ratio (and thus wingspan) will reduce the induced drag to zero, but this will increase wing area to infinite as well and thus introduce an infinite friction drag. Practically the aspect ratio is limited to about 40 (for glider planes) and economically at about 12 for airliners, with an increase to about 15 in case fuel prices reach about $1/kg (Peeters 2000). The prospects for very low energy consumption of aircraft are thus practically restricted because speed is required to stay aloft, generating both induced and friction drag. The role of speed and other performance components (e.g., the time to accelerate from 0 to 100 km/hr, spaciousness, comfort, and air conditioning) of transport systems determines the final fuel efficiency. In general it appears that transport systems’ environmental impacts show a positive relation with speed (Peeters, van Asseldonk, van Binsbergen et al 1996). Figure 4 shows the CLD for the energy efficiency enhancing technology model. The efficiency loop represents the link with the general pollutionsaving model in Figure 3. Added to this is the physical limits loop that balances the development of efficiency improvements as a function of the ratio to physical limits of technology. The efficiency will never go below these limits regardless of technology. To make this model work it will be necessary to both define the minimum energy consumption per skm, and the relation between the fractional distance to this minimum of the actual energy efficiency and the rate of change of efficiency. There are two ways to implement this relationship. The ideal one would be to model the whole complex relationship between cost and development time as a function of

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Figure 4. Conceptual Model of Energy Efficiency Enhancing Technology

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the distance to the minimum energy efficiency. However, due to lack of detailed data on cost of technology development, time to develop technology from the lab to commercial application, etc., a global statistical approach has been followed. Based on historical data of energy efficiency development, a relation between the minimum energy intensity (EI) and the rate of change per year can be fitted to an exponential growth function (the variable linked to the model with an arrow indicated with F from ‘‘Function’’; see the example for air transport in Figure 6). By adding sensitivity of the exponential growth equation to investments in technology the development may speed up or slow down depending on changes in policies or attitudes. Strong or Weak Technology Schumacher (2009) defines weak technology as technology unable to reach a zero environmental impact situation, while strong technology completely removes impacts. For transport energy consumption all technology is weak as it is physically impossible to move without using energy. However, when translated to emissions, opportunities exist to reach a state of zero emissions (but generally not zero impacts). This section shows the opportunities for strong emission technology for the main transport modes (air, rail, and road). For these modes it also explores the physical limits to energy efficiency and the technological development decay when nearing this limit. Aviation. Most studies present technological trends in terms of a constant annual percentage of efficiency gain. The IPCC special report assumes values between 1.2 and 2.2% efficiency increase per annum (Penner et al 1999). Other authors use the same method and arrive at comparable rates (Green 2003; Lee 2003; Lee, Lukachko, Waitz and Scha¨fer 2001; Pulles, Baarse, Hancox, Middel and van Velthoven 2002). All these studies base the efficiency improvements on historical data. Figure 5 shows the EI per available skm for new aircraft at the year of first delivery. The data for the jets have been taken from Lee et al (2001) and Peeters, Middel, and Hoolhorst (2005). The solid line represents a sigmoidal regression model fitted to the data given by Lee (2001). The EI of the new Airbus A380 is based on the 12% reduction with respect to the B747-400, cited by Bickerstaff (2005). The B787 is taken 20% below any aircraft within the B787 seat capacity class (as indicated by Boeing (2009); the A330-300 has been found as this undefined competitor). The A350 is based on data presented by Finnair (Ihama¨ki 2009).

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It is most likely that aircraft technology is both nearing technical and physical limits. Technical limits relate to the maximum obtainable levels of aircraft lift/drag and weight ratios, and maximum energy density of fuel. Physical limits relate to thermodynamic laws imposing limits on the overall engine efficiency of turbo-jets, which is bound by the product of thermal efficiency (power to the gas stream divided by energy content of the fuel) and the propulsive efficiency (the thrust times flying speed divided by the power to the gas stream; Penner et al 1999). Thermal efficiency can be improved by increasing the overall pressure and temperature ratio in the engine, but levels off at 70%, while the thermal propulsive efficiency is best improved by increasing the bypass ratio (the amount of air flow that passes through the fan, but not through the hot core of the turbine engine divided by the total air flow). The latter is clearly bound by the increase in size and weight of the engine and has currently reached 77%. It may be boosted further to about 90% (Penner et al 1999). This means that the overall efficiency is theoretically bound to 63% (70% times 90%). Current engines reach 40%, leaving a

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maximum of 30% improvement. For aerodynamics and aircraft structure the limits are also both physical and technical. The physical limits, for example, comprise the inevitable amount of induced drag when using a finite wing (a wing with a practically confined span regarding the maximum space at airports; see discussion in Dalhuijsen and Slingerland 2004) and of skin friction drag when moving shapes through the air. Technical limits are posed by the maximum wingspan and the accuracy of the shape of wing sections. Furthermore, economic forces play a role as aircraft manufacturers optimize their new designs for low operational cost within operational limits as range, takeoff, and landing performance (Kroo 2004; Raymer 1992; Torenbeek 1982). Just reducing fuel consumption per payload is not a goal, but a means to achieve economic efficiency. Therefore, if the theoretical minimum EI is approached, it will become increasingly costly and timeconsuming to further reduce actual EI. Figure 6 shows the rate of improvement of EI as function of the ratio between actual EI and the physical EImin, assuming a condition of zero for the case EI ¼ EImin and using the data given in Figure 5. The best fit in Figure 6 was found for a theoretical minimum EI of 0.2 MJ/skm. However, at rates of change projected by the sigmoidal regression, this value will only be reached at the

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end of this millennium (the year 3000). In 2100, EI may reduce by 40% with respect to the best aircraft in 2010. Road Transport. The development of car energy efficiency differs considerably from the aircraft case. Where aircraft designers have to cope with strong constraints for safety, space, weight, and requirements for payload-range and takeoff and landing performance, car designers also have to meet strong psychological requirements from the market regarding maximum speed, acceleration, and the sensation of power and comfort. Therefore, it is not surprising that time series for energy consumption per car kilometer give a wide scatter and lack clear trends (CBS 2009; EPA 2008b; Gallacho´ir, Howley, Cunningham and Bazilian 2009; Meyer and Wessely 2009; Sprei, Karlsson and Holmberg 2008). Compared to the T-Ford, the current 10 liters per 100 km (for the United States) shows a reduction by 33% or only 0.4%/year on average. For the more recent history several time series have been published showing the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars. In most countries, gains in energy or CO2 emissions efficiency have only been achieved until approximately 1990. For example, the Dutch passenger car fleet average CO2 emissions per pkm reduced by 12% between 1980 and 1990, after which the reduction abruptly stopped up to 2007 (CBS 2009). The cars newly purchased in Ireland between 2000 and 2006 did not gain any energy or emission efficiency, while for all of the EU countries together a fuel consumption reduction of 10% was reached within these years (Gallacho´ir et al 2009). Gains are reported for Austria, where petrol and diesel cars reduced fuel consumption by 16% and 23%, respectively, between 1990 and 2007. The overall fuel consumption of new cars has been reduced by 25% because there was a strong shift from petrol to the higher efficiency diesels (Meyer and Wessely 2009). The average car fleet EI stayed constant over 1990–2004 in the International Energy Agency (IEA) countries (IEA: EU plus Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, Canada and USA; IEA 2008:448). For the purchase of new cars the IEA shows a rather diverse picture for the period 1990–2004. There are no gains for the USA, Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands, but strong reductions in France, Italy, Japan, and medium reductions in Germany, Sweden, and the UK (IEA 2008:459). A stepped pattern is found for new cars bought in Sweden, a decrease over 1975–1985, stable between 1985 and 1995, and decrease again until 2002 (Sprei et al 2008). Sprei et al (2008) analyzed the achievements of technology and found that about one-third of the potential technological improvements were not used for reducing fuel consumption and concomitant CO2 emissions, but for

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increasing car performance, weight, and comfort. This leads to a more precise measure of technological achievements in energy efficiency by relating it to the empty weight of cars (Figure 7). Similar developments of weight increases and rather slow EI improvements were seen in other parts of the world (Zachariadis 2006). For Europe a study found a relatively strong improvement of CO2 emissions per vehicle kilometer, while both car weight and engine power increased (Zervas 2010), confirming the trend observed in the United States. Theoretically, the ultimate combustion engine efficiency is 50%, while engines’ current average is 15–30% (Scha¨fer et al 2009:104). So without alternative power systems cars may reduce energy consumption per weightkilometer by not more than 50%. In many countries of the world governments try to improve fuel efficiency by setting standards (An and Sauer 2004). These vary widely from just 25 miles per gallon (MPG) for the USA in 2007, through 35 MPG for the state of California (2015) and 49 MPG in Japan (2010), to 52 MPG in the EU (2012). This provides evidence of a very strong cultural element in car fuel efficiency. In relation to tourism transport it should be considered that most distances are relatively large, large amounts of luggage is taken (including objects like skis and bicycles), or heavy caravans are pulled, all requiring relatively heavy, high-powered cars. So even if average fleet standards are met, it remains to be seen if cars and vans used for tourism will meet these standards.

Rail Transport. Scientific information about the development of energy efficiency technology for rail transport is scarce. Even the mitigation report of the IPCC (IPCC 2007c) bases its very short rail section (less than one page out of 851) entirely on the information given on http://www.railwayenergy.org (see also Ahrens 2004), a website dedicated to rail energy efficiency technology maintained by International Union of Railways (UIC). Many reduction options given on the website are short-term operational ones with a promise to reduce energy consumption by 10–25% (Lukaszewicz 2004). Very cost-effective measures are also possible as shown by the case of the Dutch railways (NS) that optimized brake energy recuperation settings, saving 1% of the company’s total electricity use with a payback time of just four weeks (Meerman 2004). From these anecdotal samples it can be concluded that energy efficiency has not been very high on the agenda of railway companies. At the same time this means that opportunities to improve energy efficiency are unknown though most likely large and relatively cheap.

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An important advantage for electric rail transport is that decarbonizing electricity production is much cheaper than decarbonizing combustion engines-based transport. The share of emissions that can be abated at a cost of less than $50/ton CO2 is about 30% for road transport and 12% for air transport, while for electricity production the share is 75% (based on data from IPCC 2007c; see also Peeters and Dubois 2010). Furthermore, electric rail systems are better suited for using sustainable energy sources like solar, hydro, and wind. As electric trains are coupled to the grid, there is no necessity of in-vehicle energy storage and less need for storage on average. Storing and recovering electricity on a vehicle level is expensive and causes efficiency losses. A large-scale storage system may be needed, but that will generally be cheaper. The Swiss Railways have their own hydro plants that power their rail system and have been running on almost zero emissions for over a decade (SBB 2007). The energy consumption of the trains themselves is relatively low, reducing the demand for sustainable electricity compared to battery-powered cars. Based on figures given by the French national railway company SNCF (Laurencin, Le Moal and Henry 2004), a traditional Corail train uses only 0.05 MJ/skm, while a Honda Civic Diesel 2.2i-CTDi (a very fuel-efficient car) uses 0.50 MJ/skm (Gilbert and Perl 2008:150), 10 times as much. The much faster French TGV has an energy consumption of approximately 0.13–0.16 MJ/skm. An electric car like the four-seat Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution MIEV has an average energy consumption of 0.17 MJ/skm. Note that this is comparing the 80s (rail) technology with the 2010’s (car) technology. Moreover, the electric car system will suffer from energy losses for battery use and is still not a car with current average performance of power, speed, and range, which are specifically relevant for the tourism market. For diesel trains the same kind of technology as for diesel road transport is in principle available. But rail traffic generally takes a much less dynamic course, and because weight and space restrictions are much less constraining than for road transport, there is a tradition to use diesel-electric engines. These engines exhibit the same kind of advantages as hybrid cars like running the diesel engine at its highest efficiency rating and the possibility of recovering braking energy. It is difficult to find the mechanism determining the development of new technology. In rail transport, and certainly electric rail transport, the energy efficiency that can be attained depends on the interplay of infrastructure and railway operation (the infrastructure must be electrified to drive electric, it must be connected to a grid powered by low carbon electricity production, and it needs a modern traffic guidance and safety system and the ability

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to recuperate braking energy). Therefore not only energy costs, but also institutional factors such as political will, may play a role as governments will likely keep a large stake in what are traditionally monopolies like rail infrastructure and operations. Alternative Energy Sources A much discussed technology to reduce GHG emissions is to shift toward nonfossil energy sources. A large share of rail tracks in Europe and increasingly in Asia are electrified (UIC 2007) and use electricity partly generated with hydro, wind, solar, or nuclear power. The electric car could be another application using electricity from the grid instead of petrol or diesel. However, for this application batteries are required that are still expensive, weighty, take relatively long times to charge, may pose a chemical resource and waste problem, and do not provide a range desirable for tourism trips (Nagelhout and Ros 2009). For aircraft an electric option is rather remote (Peeters 2000:section 5.6; Snyder 1998). Though technically feasible, it will require the combination of several technological revolutions like super-cooled electric engines (to prevent them from becoming too heavy), the use of high-speed propellers, and a solution for storing liquefied hydrogen. Until recently the hydrogen economy has been seen as the most viable longterm solution (Azar, Lindgren and Andersson 2003; Smil 2003). Hydrogen is a fuel, not an energy source, and has an advantage as it burns without generating CO 2. It has a high energy density by weight and can be used in fuel cells to generate electricity, emitting just water vapor. Disadvantages are the low energy density by volume (even in liquefied form), the fact that it cannot be used as a direct replacement for petrol or diesel, and the energy required to produce and to liquefy hydrogen. Hydrogen can be produced by hydrolysis of water using electricity, or by dehydrating coal or natural gas. The efficiency of hydrolysis is somewhere between 50 and 80%, but most likely at the lower end; and dehydrating fossil fuels still produces CO2 emissions. Another mainstream solution is the use of biofuels for road and air transport. At first inspection biofuels seem to be zero GHG emissions, but due to the production and cultivation processes GHGs are still emitted, which can even be in greater amounts than just using fossil fuel (see the case of algae given by Wilson 2009). Biofuels are also rather space intensive. To illustrate this, one Boeing 747-400 flight over 10,000 km consumes about 32,000 gallons of biofuel (141,000 liters or 112 tons), corresponding to 52 ha

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of Jatropha plantations (based on data given by Smith 2009). In 2005, global consumption of jet fuel was 232 MT (Lee, Fahey, Forster et al 2009). Replacing conventional fuels with biofuels consequently translates into area requirements of more than one million km2 (Jatropha). Note that this area would grow by a factor of two within the next 15 years due to the strong growth in air transport. For comparison, one million km2 corresponds roughly to the size of Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium combined. Finding such an immense area for energy crop cultivation would be incredibly difficult politically in the light of current high population densities and projected growth of the world population. A more space efficient solution might be the use of algae. Algae will deliver about eight times as much fuel per hectare as Jatropha (Smith 2009). As algae grow in water basins it is possible to grow them in any location that has sun and water, even salt water (on coastal wastelands). However, on a life cycle basis algae do not deliver much reduction of GHGs, and actually may cause about 30% more emissions than kerosene (Wilson 2009). The large land, water, nutrients, and process energy requirements will make it difficult to supply all car and air transport fuel in the world, certainly at the growth rate expected in most business-as-usual scenarios (Scha¨fer et al 2009), while at the same time space needs to be reserved for food, leisure, nature, and build-up areas for a global population growing to between 12.5 and 16 billion people (van Vuuren, de Vries, Beusen and Heuberger 2008) by the end of this century. Curiously almost none of the papers about biofuels give information about the overall efficiency of photosynthesis. The theoretical maximum efficiency for plants is estimated to be 3.7% for ‘‘C4 plants’’ like maize (Dismukes, Carrieri, Bennette, Ananyev and Posewitz 2008). For algae an energy conversion rate of 3–9% is expected. However, for the whole process up to the liquid fuel an efficiency of 0.5–1.0% for algae seems to be the best attainable estimate (Dismukes et al 2008:239). Even with algae, space issues remain. For example, replacing all gasoline in the United States would require a space equal to the current space used for all corn crop in the country (based on Dismukes et al 2008:figure 1).

CONCLUSION This chapter investigates the role of technological development in the context of GHG emissions from tourism transport. It considers if technology is able to solve the growing discrepancy between the current

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strong growth of tourism transport-related CO2 emissions and the strong reductions required to avoid dangerous climate change. The role of technology in tourism’s contribution to GHG emissions is diverse. Pollution-saving technological change may improve energy efficiency (EI) and reduce the amount of GHG emissions per unit energy, but at the same time the development of transportation technology dedicated to improving range, speed, capacity, comfort, etc. has a strong impact on transport volumes, even for a given number of tourist trips, thus resulting in an increase in emissions. Furthermore efficiency improvements lead to rebound effects like the reduction of operational (fuel) costs and thus increase of transport volume. These three factors may explain why tourism’s overall emissions (and certainly air transport’s emissions) have been growing faster than the overall number of trips. It has been shown that efficiency measures can never deliver strong (pollution solving) technologies (Schumacher 2009), as 100% efficiency is not feasible due to the laws of physics. As avoiding dangerous climate change requires very strong absolute emission reductions of 80% within 20–40 years, while energy consumption easily doubles or, in the case of tourism, triples within the same time span, efficiency improvements of 90– 99% might be required, which is impossible for most technologies, specifically for transport generating most emissions growth. Strong technology for zero emission energy sources will have to play an important role. The best opportunities seem to exist for electric rail transport where the combination of electrical power, renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydro, and the relatively high energy efficiency of rail systems themselves have already created zero emission rail systems in, for example, Switzerland and Sweden (SBB 2007; SJ 2010). While rail transport has favorable energy efficiency compared to other long distance transport modes used in tourism, it has been found that many opportunities for improvements still exist. Less clear is when and how these will be developed and used. Political will, market forces, and safety considerations seem to be strong forces in the system, making energy efficiency just one of many design constraints. For air transport the development of fuel efficiency is directed by operating economics and aircraft performance constraints. Inefficient aircraft designs are penalized not only by higher direct operating cost, but also by weaker performance, and therefore aircraft development has followed a long path of continuously improving fuel efficiency. But it has also been found that fuel efficiency is reaching its physical limits and current jet aircraft may not become much more fuel efficient. In addition, the development of aircraft technology is also slowing down. The operational

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use of aircraft, a nontechnical parameter, may have a large impact on the final energy efficiency of air transport. Where low cost carriers generally fly with as many seats per aircraft as possible in a one class layout, many other carriers decrease seat numbers to allow for luxury travel, specifically on long-haul aircraft (see seat layouts on seatguru.com showing British airways highest comfort Boeing 747-400 with just 291 seats, while Air France’s highest density 747-400 flies with 447 seats). But here too, a strong rebound effect exists, as high density seating allows for very low prices, boosting transport volume. This has been shown by the fast emergence of low cost carriers, who are very fuel efficient but have also maintained growth in air transport, even during economic crises. For cars a clear efficiency improving technological development has been found, though in this case the overall efficiency of the car (energy per vehicle kilometer) may still deteriorate over time. This is caused by the large role of noncommercial and psychological arguments in the market for cars. Generally people buy larger and heavier cars than they really need. Therefore the vehicle efficiency (energy per vehicle kilometer) of newly sold cars can be decreasing while technologically the car still becomes more efficient, as was shown by the continuous improvement of efficiency per kg of empty car weight, while at the same time fuel use per pkm remained almost constant (Figure 7). Alternative fuels and energy (hydrogen, renewable electricity, and biofuels) have all been shown to be both promising and problematic. The hydrogen economy will only be effective in reducing CO2 emissions if renewable energy sources are very abundant, which they are currently not. Biofuels suffer from both efficiency and land use problems and electricity could be used far more effectively for electric rail than for road transport due to cost and technological limitations of battery technology. The latter is specifically important for tourism transport with its typically long distances. The intense discussions about biofuels, electric cars, and aircraft engine efficiency improvements may hamper more effective policies, as Edgerton observes ‘‘Calling for new technologies to be developed, in the old-fashioned futuristic way, is a cover for inaction now’’ (Edgerton 2008:1031). Most obvious is the role of transport speed in the development of the distances tourists cover and thus the environmental pressure caused by tourism transport. The tourism transport technology dynamic system has been shown to be inherently favoring developments toward increasing speed and transport volume (measured in kilometers traveled). Though aircraft have not become much faster since the introduction of jet aircraft, there is mounting evidence that space travel may be the next phase in increased

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travel speed. This development is most likely devastating for any environmental policy, including climate change mitigation, as it will induce previously unheard of transport volumes. Finally, the issue remains as to whether the tourism sector has the power to reduce its emissions substantially by transport technology alone. Only air transport can be considered to be a full part of the tourism industry (about 80% of all civil aviation is for tourism, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008), while the automotive and rail industries serve mainly other transport sectors like commuting and daily travel. This biased link between the core tourism industry (tour operators, travel agencies, and accommodation) and one single transport mode (air transport) creates biased ideas about the role of transport in tourism, blocking nontechnological solutions as modal shifts and reduced distances per trip. Concluding, it may be stated that technological developments will not reduce the total emissions of tourism transport as the impacts of better efficiency are countered by higher transport volumes. Only in combination with strong social pressure and political action will the emission reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change be reached.

Acknowledgments The author would like to express his gratitude to Wil Thissen and Els van Daalen (Technical University of Delft), Jaap Lengkeek (Wageningen University), Eke Eijgelaar (Breda NHTV University for Applied Sciences) and an anonymous reviewer for their very valuable comments.

Chapter 5

THE HOSPITALITY SECTOR Corporate Social Responsibility and Climate Change Piotr Zientara University of Gdan´sk, Poland

Paulina Bohdanowicz Leeds Metropolitan University, United Kingdom

Abridgement: Hospitality, constituting an essential component of the tourism industry, is a sector characterized by many feasible opportunities to cut carbon dioxide emissions and to reduce the use of resources. Hence this chapter, drawing on the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR), focuses on the way the hospitality sector copes with climate change. Its principal aim is to show what international hospitality companies, which are regarded as pioneers of CSR-inspired environmentalism, have done to mitigate the effects of global warming. In doing so, the chapter critically examines innovative measures and instruments introduced by top hotel chains within their CSR programs with an aim of reducing their carbon footprint. It lays emphasis on the practical dimension, highlighting the nature and effectiveness of concrete initiatives, and the issues that arise during the implementation process. The chapter concludes by providing specific managerial-policy guidelines, thereby contributing to the dissemination of best practice, and suggestions for

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 91–111 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003008

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions further research. Keywords: corporate social responsibility; hospitality; carbon dioxide reduction; best practice; corporate environmentalism

INTRODUCTION It is rarely in dispute that the issue of environmental protection, with climate change at the forefront, is not only a subject of widespread public interest, but also one of the most important challenges facing mankind. The emergence of the concept of sustainable development, which is about ensuring that humanity ‘‘meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’’ (Kates, Parris and Leiserowitz 2005:10), alongside the fast-growing popularity of corporate social responsibility (CSR), which implies, among other things, that businesses should behave ethically vis-a`-vis the environment, is testament to a profound shift in societal approach to ecological issues. Consequently, the imperative to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, by doing such things as switching to renewable sources of energy and installing state-ofthe-art energy-efficient equipment, has come to occupy a prominent position in the responsible-business agendas of most multinationals operating in different segments of the global economy (Duncan 2009). This is also true of the hospitality sector in general and top hotel chains in particular. There is little doubt that international hospitality companies, due to their global reach and considerable financial resources, are well placed to propagate green ideals and to deal with climate change. In fact, many of them were first to introduce comprehensive CSR programs, in which environmental protection (alongside employee wellbeing and community development) took center stage (Holcomb, Upchurch and Okumus 2007). Interestingly, such firms as Scandic and Wyndham even embedded CSR and, by implication, ecological issues in the center of their business models (Bohdanowicz and Zientara 2008). This means that environmentalismunderpinned CSR determines all managerial decisions and operations. Wyndham, for example, views CSR not as a stand-alone program to implement or a policy to follow, but as ‘‘a way of living, working and playing that embodies our vision and values, celebrates our diversity and supports a balance of professional and personal needs’’ (Wyndham 2008:n.p.). Since an unspoiled environment is also an important component of service quality and a significant factor behind the attractiveness of any destination, it is in the interest of hospitality companies to ensure the

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long-term environmental sustainability of tourist activity (Bowe 2005; Charter for Sustainable Tourism 1995; International Hotels Environment Initiative 1996; Kalisch 2002; Kirk 1998; Knowles, Macmillan, Palmer, Grabowski and Hashimoto 1999; Mowforth and Munt 1998; Sharpley 2000). This implies that the way hotel chains deal with environmental concerns is likely to affect their competitiveness (Dow Jones Sustainability Index 2009; Holcomb et al 2007). In this context it is important to stress that, from an ecological perspective, hotels, which consume significant amounts of energy and water, as well as turn over large quantities of waste (Bass Hotels and Resorts 2000; Erdogan and Baris 2007), stand out among other commercial buildings. Hospitality is a sector with many feasible opportunities to cut CO2 emissions and to reduce the use of resources. Thus, the aim of this chapter is to discuss selected international hotel companies’ measures and instruments aimed at reducing their carbon footprint and at mitigating the effects of climate change. The principal idea is to provide managerial policy guidelines and to disseminate best practice. The structure of the chapter is as follows. The initial section provides a context in which to place the issues under consideration. It focuses on the debate over the science and economics of climate change and highlights the rationale of concrete scientific arguments as well as the pros and cons of putative policy recommendations. The subsequent section briefly discusses the premises of and the controversy over the concept of CSR and shows what the tourist and tourism industry, of which the hospitality sector is an integral part, intends to do to tackle climate change. A brief methodology section ensues, and then the chapter proceeds to examine selected international hotel chains’ measures and initiatives aimed at reducing their carbon footprint. Great emphasis is laid, on the one hand, on the innovative character of concrete solutions and, on the other, on practical aspects of the implementation process. The chapter concludes by making a case for a holistic approach to decarbonization efforts and by providing a number of managerial policy recommendations. Climate change has recently become the focus of growing public and policy interest (Carter, De Freitas, Goklany, Holland, and Lindzen, 2006; Cline 1992; Dawson 2008; Duncan 2009; Economist 2007; House of Lords 2006; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007a; Lomborg 2001; Nordhaus 2007; Stern 2007; Svensmark and Calder 2007a, 2007b). It is worth mentioning that one of the first politicians of stature to raise the alarm about global warming was Margaret Thatcher. In 1989, when her adviser Crispin Tickell pointed out to her that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere was rising and that it was a greenhouse gas (GHG), she alerted the world in

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a speech to the United Nations. Two decades later, it is hardly in dispute that GHG emissions constitute one of the major factors behind global warming (IPCC 2007a). Rising temperatures, in turn, are likely to damage the environment, to precipitate the extinction of certain fauna and flora species (for instance, coral reefs), to provoke extreme weather events (such as coastal flooding), to prompt the spread of diseases (such as malaria), to affect negatively cereal yields, and, last but not least, to reduce the value of the global economy (Duncan 2009). All this has led many scientists and activists to argue that climate change poses a serious threat to humanity and as such requires an urgent coordinated response (Stern 2007). This would include a drastic reduction of the emissions of GHGs in general and CO2 in particular, which would entail a profound transformation of energy production and accordingly a shift from fossil fuels to carbon-free renewables (Economist 2007; World Coal Institute 2007). However, given that both the science and economics of climate change are a subject of vigorous and heated academic debate (Dawson 2008; Lomborg 2001; Nordhaus 2007; Stern 2007; Svensmark and Calder 2007a, 2007b), this is a highly controversial issue. While some scientists claim that global temperature changes, rather than being a result of human activity, are brought about by natural forces (Carter et al 2006; Svensmark and Calder 2007a, 2007b), others point out that even if manmade climate change is indeed occurring, its scale is not as great as many believe. On the other hand, some economists see global warming as a market failure (Stern 2007), whereas again others, referring to the Austrian approach to environmental problems, view it as a case of an interpersonal conflict over the use of resources (Cordato 2004). Equally doubts have been cast over the methodology employed to measure the scale and the socioeconomic impact of climatic change (Dawson 2008; Lomborg 2001; Nordhaus 2007; Stern 2007). For instance, Stern’s (2007) estimates, according to which by 2010 the damage caused by climate change might diminish the value of the world economy by between 5 and 20% (compared to a world without global warming), have been questioned (Nordhaus 2007). Likewise, the methodological approach used by the IPCC (2007a) to prepare different emissions scenarios, which predict what might happen if global temperature increases, for instance, by 11C (rice yields will decrease by 10% in certain places in Asia) or 41C (millions of people will be exposed to malaria and affected by coastal flooding), have faced criticism (Dawson 2008). Thus, it is suggested that the science of climate change, notwithstanding noteworthy progress, is not yet settled (Economist 2009b). Nonetheless, irrespective of the validity of particular arguments, most

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commentators agree that many innovative solutions exist, which, while relatively costly in the short term, bring considerable benefits both in terms of CO2 emissions reduction and cost efficiency in the long run. For instance, Accenture, a consultancy, saved US$8 million in 2008 by using telepresence systems (e.g., videoconferences) for internal communication purposes, thereby avoiding journeys that would have generated 2,000 tons of CO2 (Economist 2009a:67). Hence, decarbonization can go hand in hand with cost reduction, which in turn, enhances a firm’s competitiveness. Given the highly competitive business environment, this is an important benefit.

THE PROS AND CONS OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY CSR, which is also referred to as corporate citizenship, corporate sustainability, corporate responsibility, or responsible business, is about producing public benefit (Business in the Community 2009). In other words, companies should justify their existence in terms of their (environmentally friendly) services to a wider public rather than mere profit (Crook 2005). To extend the argument further, CSR has to do with the attitude that firms adopt toward such stakeholders as workers, consumers, the broader society, or even future generations. Thus, on the one hand, great emphasis is placed on dealing fairly with employees, suppliers, and customers, and, on the other, on supporting local communities, giving donations to charitable causes and critically promoting decarbonization and environmental sustainability (Dow Jones Sustainability Index 2009; Franklin 2008; Lewis 2003; McIntosh, Thomas, Leipzinger and Coleman 2003). All in all, businesses are expected to behave ethically and ecologically sound (which is thought to affect their longterm competitiveness positively; see also Porter and Kramer 2006). However, this concept has also faced criticism. One school of thought points out that businesses are responsible, above all, to their owners rather than to society and other stakeholders (Clarkson 1995; Donaldson and Preston 1995). Others suggest that CSR undermines, through shifting the focus from profit maximization to responsible performance, the fundamental principle of the free market economy (Henderson 2001) or show that some CSR-inspired schemes (such as fair trade coffee) are counterproductive and harmful (Economist 2006). Critically, some researchers argue that most companies pursue CSR activities and then publicize their efforts with the aim of improving their corporate image (Esrock and Leichty 1998; Jenkins

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and Yakovelva 2005). Such an attitude has to do more with public relations and brand management than true commitment to good causes and environmental sustainability (Bohdanowicz and Zientara 2008). This bears directly on the very quintessence of CSR: Is it about proving that a business, having wholeheartedly embraced the philosophy of social responsibility, is genuinely committed to doing good or is it about showing that a business, aware that it pays to have a positive and ecofriendly image, is involved in right things? (Holcomb et al 2007). This is not to demean or to make a case against the very rationale of CSR. Rather, this is to suggest that one should not unquestioningly accept all its tenets. It follows that managers, while devising CSR programs, should follow, above all, scientific evidence and common sense rather than political correctness and activist pressure. In fact, the above critical remarks serves as a reminder that in today’s complex, multifaceted reality it is essential to carefully weigh up the pros and cons of certain initiatives and to make an indepth analysis of the potential consequences of concrete policy choices. It is of importance since nowadays no large company can afford to pay scant regard to its environmental impact and to the wellbeing of its employees (Bohdanowicz and Zientara 2009; Franklin 2008). Consequently, as mentioned in the introduction, the imperative to reduce CO2 emissions features prominently in the responsible-business agendas of most international firms. This is also true of the tourism industry (Bohdanowicz 2007; Bohdanowicz and Zientara 2008; Holcomb et al 2007; Kalisch 2002), of which the hospitality sector is a vital constituent. Tourism and Climate Change According a 2009 report by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the tourism industry represents 10% of global gross domestic product (US$5.8 billion) and 8% of employment worldwide (230 million jobs). The industry is thought to contribute 5% of the total human-made CO2 emissions, of which 2% is attributed to aviation (Chiesa and Gautam 2009). It is important to note that aviation-related emissions are predicted to increase at a pace of at least 2.7% per annum for the next 15–20 years, while the respective increase for the remainder of tourism is believed to be at the level of 2.5% annually until 2035 (Chiesa and Gautam 2009). More importantly, accommodation carbon emissions, which are calculated as the product of tourism volume (guest nights), energy use per guest night and energy source or emission factors per energy unit for power and heat, are estimated (globally) at 284 MT, which is less than 5% of the global building

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emissions. Accommodation carbon emissions are forecast to grow at 3.2% per year, reaching 728 MT by 2035 (Chiesa and Gautam 2009): an estimated increase of 156% by 2035. The biggest growth in emissions is likely to occur in the Asia-Pacific region, where the share of emissions will go up by 10% in the next 30 years (from 29% in 2005 to 40% in 2035). North America and Europe will contribute about 50% to global accommodation emissions in 2035 (down by 10% as compared to 2005) (Chiesa and Gautam 2009). Developing countries whose economies will be particularly hard hit by the negative consequences of global warming might be able to devote far less (already scarce) financial resources to the development of tourismfacilitating infrastructure (i.e., roads and airports). This is because of slower economic growth and, simultaneously, the necessity to earmark capital for preventing and fixing climate-change-caused damage. There is little doubt, therefore, that global warming is likely to affect, in various ways and on different geographical scales, the prospects and operation of the entire tourism industry. The increasingly visible consequences of global warming are also bound to play a part in shaping customers’ attitudes and expectations. Symptomatically, as transpires from specialist reports and surveys (see, for instance, World Travel Market Global Trends Report 2008), tourists express a strong desire for social and environmental responsibility in their choice of destination (as well as authentic travel experience and fair trade practices). In other words, they are increasingly willing to ‘‘trade up for sustainability’’ (WTTC 2009:7). This implies that there is a growing awareness among rich country citizens of the need to protect the environment in general and to cope with climate change in particular (note that, according to a survey by Harris Interactive, 67% of Americans believe the activities of human beings are contributing to an increase in global temperatures (cited in Environmental Leader 2008). It follows that customers who not only decide how and where they spend their free time, but also whom they pay for this, increasingly expect tourism-related businesses to take concrete measures in this context. Consequently, the industry aspires to reduce total CO2 emissions in 2035 by no less than 50% from their 2005 levels (WTTC 2009). It set itself an interim target of reducing CO2 emissions by 30% by 2020 on the assumption that there is an international agreement on global emissions reduction, or by 25% by 2020 in the absence of such an agreement. Moreover, there is broad consensus that tackling climate change effectively requires close collaboration between various tourism actors. This is done through national and international initiatives, such as Global Partnership for Sustainable Tourism

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Criteria, the World Economic Forum Multi-stakeholder Programme and the International Tourism Partnership, which deal with issues relating to emissions’ measuring and the setting of standards. Specifically, the industry has decided to focus its efforts on five sustainability themes (WTTC 2009:9): accountability and responsibility; local community growth and capacity building; educating customers and stakeholders; greening supply chains; and finally innovation, capital investment, and infrastructure. As for the first item, plans are afoot to produce a rigorous but practical internationally agreed framework of standards to measure progress against GHG emission targets. This will take the form of a transparent mechanism for reporting emissions by sector (with each organization taking responsibility for measurement and independent verification), which will constitute the core of an industry-wide carbon accountability system. Regarding point two, the industry intends to support efforts to develop a funding mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation through such initiatives as the United Nations Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries Program (UN REDD; see also Economist 2009c). Furthermore, customers will be encouraged through a variety of schemes to reduce their use of energy (point three). In point four, a range of practical tools that can be used by small- and medium-sized businesses to measure and share their CO2 emission levels will be developed. Finally, the fifth point relates to action being taken to encourage the aviation and hospitality sectors to reduce their emissions. In particular, hospitality comes across as a sector with many viable opportunities to cut emissions. In doing so, it can draw on a number of concrete measures. These include developing environmental management/ sustainability systems to track and reduce energy, water and waste consumption, using new technologies (such as light-emitting diodes also known as LED lighting, solar thermal heating, or low-flow fixtures) to reduce energy and water usage, using recycled materials, and using local food and beverages (WTTC 2009); editor’s note: for a case study dealing with new lighting technologies see Chapter 9. Also, energy efficiency certification programs such as Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM) and United States Green Building Council’s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (U.S. GBC LEED) for new and existing buildings can be used to embed longterm carbon value into a product or building. For example, energy efficiency certification, coupled with a forward look at increasing mandatory efficiency standards, can provide some property value accrual for capital expenditure

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on efficiency, as well as making it more likely that building owners will invest in these measures to ensure that the value of their property remains high. In light of the above analysis, it is fair to say that with their global reach and significant financial resources international hotel companies have a special role to play in tackling global warming. It is of particular interest to see what they have done in the area of climate change mitigation. Yet, before moving on to an analysis of their actions, it is necessary to present the methodology. Study Methods and Findings To address the research problem, a content analysis technique (Neuman 2003) was employed. While gathering data, the authors visited selected hotel chains’ websites and analyzed their CSR-related content as well as (in some cases) contacted managers (by email) responsible for the implementation of relevant CSR programs. In this context, it has to be stressed that the methodology is not devoid of certain limitations. As the following analysis is essentially exploratory in character, the method does not seek to be particularly rigorous. The principal source of information for each hotel chain is the hotel chain itself (via its website), which from a certain point of view, might raise some concerns over objectivity (the authors did not verify or specifically research this information). Nevertheless, given the chapter’s main premises and purpose, this does not constitute a serious weakness that might considerably affect the quality of the discussion. In recent years, the vast majority of top hotel chains (often seen as pioneers of corporate environmentalism) have put into place comprehensive CSR-inspired programs, such as Omtanke (Scandic), Global Sustainability (at Hilton Worldwide) and we care! (at Hilton in Europe in 2006–2008), Spirit to Preserve (Marriott International), Responsible Business (Rezidor Hotel Group), or Green Partnership Programme (Fairmont Hotels & Resorts) in which the issue of climate change features saliently (still, and this needs to emphasized, much depends on concrete organizational solutions: in some firms activities aiming at carbon footprint reduction are also carried out by separate sustainability departments). Wolfgang Neumann, initiator of Hilton’s we care! Program stated in 2006: It is clear that current debate about climate change has highlighted the need for action from all of us. As more and more people look to book according to their conscience and beliefs, it is inevitable that hoteliers will need to demonstrate

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Results of the study presented below show what selected hotel companies have already done (or what they plan to do) to deal with implications of climate change. As mentioned in the introductory section, special emphasis is placed on the innovative character of solutions and the practical aspects of the implementation process. First of all, it is important to note that most international hotel chains have set themselves specific targets in the area of GHG emissions reduction. For instance, InterContinental Hotel Group intends to cut its CO2 emissions by 25% by 2017, Marriott International by 20%, and Hilton Worldwide by 20% in 2009–2014. Scandic aims to operate on a carbon-neutral basis by 2025, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts aspires to reduce GHG emissions to 20% below 2006 levels by 2013, and Wyndham intends to offset a portion of its carbon footprint, equal to 68 tons of CO2 via a partnership with Native Energy. All these reductions are expected to be achieved through a combination of the following measures: one, reducing the amount of energy used by installing technologically advanced energy-efficient appliances and environmental management systems; two, switching to renewable and/or lowcarbon sources of energy (solar, hydro, and wind power); three, buying locally grown food so as to reduce transport-related CO2 emissions; four, purchasing carbon offsets from other organisations; and five, raising ecological awareness among staff and customers by involving them in creative ecologically friendly undertakings (and also encouraging them to switch off lighting and TV sets when leaving their rooms and to turn off the taps when they see water dripping). Marriott International. To reduce and offset its global environmental footprint, which is estimated at 2.9 MT of CO2 emissions, Marriott (2009), in collaboration with Conservation International, developed a comprehensive strategy. It focuses on the following areas: water, waste, and energy reduction; the supply chain; buildings; employee and guest engagement; and community involvement (Marriott 2009). As for resource and waste reduction, Marriott is committed to reducing its fuel and water consumption by an additional 25% per available room over the next 10 years, installing solar power at up to 40 hotels by 2017, and expanding

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existing reduce, reuse, recycle programs. In this context, Marriott points out that over the last decade its hotels worldwide have replaced 450,000 light bulbs with fluorescent lighting, introduced linen reuse programs, and installed 400,000 low-flow showerheads and toilets. The American Environmental Protection Agency conferred its 2008 Sustained Excellence Award to Marriott and placed the ENERGY STAR label on more than 250 of its hotels (the most of any hotel company). In 2006, the combined efforts of the management and employees allowed the reduction of energy use by 8.6 GWh, equivalent to 70,000 tons of GHG emissions. In regards to greening its supply chain and buildings, the company plans to engage its main suppliers to offer greener products and to empower its hotel development partners to choose and design new hotels according to the Green Building Council’s LEED standards by the end of 2009. Also, in a bid to engage and raise green awareness, Marriott offers its employees on business travel the option of using hybrid rental vehicles. Of special interest is the Spirit to Preserve the Rainforest Program, which aims to prevent deforestation, thus echoing the basic premise of the aforesaid UN REDD program, (officially started on November 6, 2009 in Tanzania) and is unique in hospitality sector. It was launched in 2008 to help protect the 1.4 million acre (589,000 ha) Juma Sustainable Development Reserve. Marriott and its customers will contribute to a fund to be administered by Amazonas Sustainable Foundation (for meetings or stays of 10 rooms or more booked during selected dates, participating Marriott hotels around the world contribute funds equal to 5% of the total cost of the group’s guest rooms, while guests can Green Their Hotel Stay and offset their carbon footprint by making a voluntary donation to the foundation). The foundation, together with the State of Amazonas, will monitor and enforce the protection of the reserve. The project is expected to provide 500 inhabitants of the reserve with jobs, education, and health care.

Rezidor Hotel Group. Rezidor Hotel Group’s (2009) efforts to reduce its carbon footprint are conducted within the framework of the Responsible Business Program. The company’s overall decarbonization strategy consists in reducing energy use and shifting to renewables, as well as in complementing these activities by carbon offsetting. In 2007, more than 50% of the company’s hotels took some energy-saving measures. These encompassed the installation of sensors and motion detectors as well as low-energy demand equipment, upgrading of heating and ventilation systems, and energy audits. The Radisson SAS Royal Hotel in Brussels, for instance,

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installed new energy-efficient chillers that not only provide return on investment (due to energy savings), but also are ozone-friendly and silent. In 2007, 279,128 CO2 equivalents were emitted from all the company’s operations, which implies that compared to 2006, its carbon footprint increased in absolute terms (Rezidor Hotel Group 2009). A strong growth in new hotels, especially in countries outside Western Europe, might go some way toward explaining this increase. Yet, when measured by room nights, Rezidor’s carbon footprint went down by 5% in 2007 compared to 2005, and 15% of its hotels, most of which are located in Scandinavia, obtained a third-party environmental certification. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the company attempts to raise ecological awareness among its employees and customers by involving them in various green undertakings. For example, some Rezidor Hotels offer all guests the possibility to offset the carbon emissions associated with their trip through its specially designed loyalty program. The Radisson SAS Hotel A˚lesund was the first hotel in the group to hold a carbon neutral event for guests. It was coordinated with a ceremony during which the hotel received the prestigious Nordic Swan ecolabel, one of the world’s most respected ecolabels and marks of quality control in the area of environmental sustainability (the hotel donated the money to the Carbon Neutral Company, which, in turn, financed a solar electrification project in India and a tree planting project in Uganda). In a similar vein, in September 2007, employees of the Radisson SAS Hotel in Edinburgh went to Dumfries and Galloway to work on a native woodland reforestation project. InterContinental Hotels Group. To reduce its carbon footprint, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) (2009) worked with a UK-based sustainability consultancy, Best Foot Forward. The main idea behind the cooperative was to footprint IHG hotels so as to provide IHG managers with a snapshot of their establishments’ carbon impact on the environment. In this context, the Chase the Extraordinary campaign needs to be mentioned. It is an initiative aimed at engaging all IHG employees at every level in the hotel and introduce them in person to new IHG decarbonization (and, generally, environmental) measures, which include moving to energy-saving light bulbs (which in America saved 130.1 million kWh of electricity worth over US$2.28 million annually and avoided the emission of around 90,610 tons of CO2) and installing technologically advanced, more energy-efficient appliances (InterContinental Grand Stanford in Hong Kong, for instance, replaced its diesel boilers with a modern electric hybrid plant, which led to the reduction of 64 tons of CO2 per year).

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Additionally, the ESCAP Enviro Program was put into place. It is a management tool to measure and internally benchmark the environmental performance of its hotels by energy usage, water consumption, and waste production (in 2008, it was in place in 74% of their owned and managed hotels). This Internet-based system allows individual hotels to enter data on a monthly basis, which can then be reported over time. The benchmarking results of particular establishments are easily understood by the use of a dashboard display system for key indicators. A particularly important aspect of ESCAP Enviro is its ability to export data as equivalents to; for example, when highlighting good environmental performance to guests, hotels are able to describe water savings in terms of the number of Olympicsized swimming pools, washing machine loads, or toilet flushes. This offers a vivid illustration of the human side of IHG’s ecological activity. The company also developed an IHG environmental standard for hotel design and construction. Hilton Hotels. In 2006–2008, within the framework of the we care! Program (which originally was an initiative aimed at enhancing environmental sustainability but did not explicitly specify CO2 reduction as a target), Hilton Hotels reduced energy consumption by 15%, water consumption by 8%, and CO2 emissions per guest night by nearly 8% (in continental Europe in 2006–2008) (Tjolle 2009). This prevented a total of 28,600 tons of CO2 from being emitted in the atmosphere and helped the company save US$16 million (note that Hilton’s main decarbonization efforts fall under the purview of Global Sustainability Initiative and related reduction goals). During the same period Hilton Hotels’ ecofriendly boilers, chillers, and heat exchanges were installed, and water purification and recycling projects were implemented where feasible. Like IHG, Hilton put into place an environmental management system called Hilton Environmental Reporting (HER) (Bohdanowicz 2007). It was an IT system through which Hilton Hotels from Europe reported their resource consumption (energy, water) and operational factors such as guest nights sold and food covers sold on a monthly basis (note, however, that later HER was replaced by LightStay—which is a global sustainability tool used by all Hilton Worldwide brands) (Hotel Online 2010). This information was then used to construct performance indicators for individual hotels and to compare their performance with the average in a country and in the European Hilton portfolio. The following indicators have been available for each hotel since 2005: energy in kWh per guest night, energy in kWh per square meter of floor area, water in liters per guest night, kilograms of unsorted waste per

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guest night, kilograms of laundry per guest night, and kilograms of CO2 emitted per guest night. The per-guest-night indicators were constructed on the basis of year-to-date information, while energy in kWh/m2 was an annual estimate. There were also league tables for each country and operational regions showing the percentage change in energy consumption per guest night and square meter of the area in the months of the current year as compared to the same months of 2005, which was regarded as the base year for the first phase of the we care! Program. At times, a comparison of performance by hotels with similar characteristics was performed. In addition, the performance on an individual basis was sometimes compared to the benchmark established by the International Tourism Partnership (ITP) Environment Bench. However, hotels located in Scandinavia and labeled with the Nordic Swan continue to be verified against the benchmarks established by the Nordic Swan label. What needs to be stressed is the fact that Hilton, like Marriott, Rezidor Hotel Group, and other hospitality companies attempt to involve and educate both employees (or team members in the Hilton parlance) and guests. The idea is, as the Marriott or Rezidor cases have already demonstrated, to raise and to promote environmental awareness (with global warming at the forefront) among staff and customers through active participation and genuine empowerment. Thus, for instance, within the framework of we care!, a mountain bike was promised and delivered to each Hilton employee at the best performing hotel in each operational region over the course of three years. In addition, green teams, in charge of preparing and executing (detailed and concrete) action plans, were set up in all Hilton Hotels and three ecoLearning e-courses were launched at Hilton University (in 2006–2008, 4,000 employees completed them). Such measures, intended to instigate a permanent modification in team members’ attitudes toward environmental protection in general and climate change in particular, imply that hotel companies’ strategies bear all the hallmarks of a holistic approach. Scandic Hotels. This is also true of Scandic and Fairmont Hotels & Resorts. Scandic, like Wyndham, made CSR (and its Omtanke Program) the center piece of its business model (for more, see Bohdanowicz and Zientara 2008). In other words, it holistically integrated social responsibility and, by implication, environmentalism into—to use Franklin’s (2008) term–its corporate DNA. Scandic’s employees are called, like Hilton’s, team members (this aims, among other things, to enhance corporate esprit de corps and increase employees’ organizational commitment). Yet, Scandic

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stands out among other hotel chains for its creativity and ambitiousness. Not only does it employ typical measures aimed at carbon footprint reduction (such as switching to renewables or state-of-the-art energyefficient appliances), but also explores innovative and/or bold solutions. For example, in February 2007, it entered into an exclusive, longterm partnership with Jamie Oliver, a British TV chef. The idea is to simultaneously offer Scandic customers a unique culinary experience and critically to promote organic food-based cuisine (the company actively promotes organic agriculture and environmentally friendly natural produce). Moreover, Scandic cooperates only with those taxi and car rental firms that use hybrid, electric, biodiesel-fueled, and ethanol-fueled vehicles and only serves its own filtered water dispensed at its hotels in smart recyclable and reusable bottles (for which Scandic was given the Environmental Initiative of the Year Award in 2008). Fairmont Hotels & Resorts. Finally, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts (2009), like Scandic or Wyndham, claims that its green philosophy has become a core company value, and it has developed a similar holistic strategy. The company not only invests in technological solutions aiming at resource use efficiency, but also ensures that all its employees receive green education and are personally involved in a variety of environment protection activities. Fairmont’s ecological efforts are guided by the Green Partnership Programme (Fairmont Hotels & Resorts 2009), which constitutes the center piece of the company’s environmental policy and provides a detailed explanation of how to minimize negative impacts on the environment. The company has been involved in a number of renewable energy and carbon offsetting projects since the mid-2000s. Specifically, Fairmont’s sustainability efforts encompass such activities as recycling, organic waste diversion in the hotel’s kitchens, retrofitting energy-efficient lighting, purchasing green power, employing sustainable energy technology, participating in antideforestation undertakings, and complying with all environmental legislation and ecological standards. In the late 90s, for instance, the comprehensive energy-efficiency projects implemented in 6 out of 20 Fairmont Hotels resulted in energy cost savings of over US$4 million. Its joint hotel and community schemes—known as Eco-Innovation signature projects—are designed to encourage all individuals to get involved and to think globally and act locally (it is worthwhile to note that this is also the theme of Local Agenda 21 introduced as a result of the Rio Conference in 1992). These projects, carried out for instance in California (clean air awareness) and Hawaii (coral reef protection), combine the travel experience

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with interactive learning and environmental awareness raising. Likewise, under the leadership of their corporate environmental affairs division and hotel-based Green Teams, 26,000 Fairmont employees were transformed into environmental ambassadors, who are supposed to help protect the habitat and natural resources of the places in which Fairmont Hotels are situated. Also worth mentioning is the fact that Fairmont cooperates with associations such as the United States Environmental Protection Agency (ENERGY STAR Program), the Hotel Association of Canada (Green Key Eco-Rating Program), the Pembina Institute for Appropriate Development, and the World Heritage Alliance. Discussion This is not to say, however, that there are no drawbacks or pitfalls facing hotel chains while seeking to mitigate the impacts of climate change. In fact, even though the conception and implementation of the above-mentioned actions and initiatives might appear unproblematic and uncontroversial, they might potentially constitute a daunting challenge. This is due to a variety of reasons of predominantly psychological and economic character. From a psychological point of view, it is important to realize that most people are change averse (Magd 2003). In other words, individuals tend to resist change since it usually involves additional effort and, at the same time, prompts certain fears and concerns. It seems reasonable to expect, therefore, that some employees and managers, especially those who do not believe that climate change is a human-made phenomenon or who simply do not care about the environment, will be unwilling to truly engage themselves in activities aimed at reducing their hotel’s carbon footprint. They might openly question the rationale of the entire undertaking, pointing out that they cannot see any reason why they should help save money for a company, which is wealthy anyway. This implies that it could be particularly difficult to elicit genuine commitment (and a certain degree of single-mindedness) from them. In this context, one should also remember that raising green awareness in an ideologically uncritical and lopsided manner risks producing a backlash. Accordingly, some employees might start to perceive internal ecological campaigns and responsible behavior encouragement as a sort of corporate indoctrination (if not an intrusion into their private lives) and/or might even resent taking part in certain (somehow inconvenient) environmentally friendly actions such as going to the countryside to plant trees (there is also evidence that employees’ original enthusiasm for greenery tends to fade relatively quickly). In addition, assorted problems with coordination

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across various departments and establishments located in different parts of the world might arise. As it has been argued, the commitment on the part of staff is a key prerequisite of any environmental program’s success. From an economic perspective, it is evident that once all the easy actions bearing low or no cost (such as switch-off office campaigns or green chefs, which encourages activating the kitchen equipment only if and when needed) have been implemented, the introduction of further initiatives aimed at climate change mitigation is comparatively costly in the short or medium term. To put it differently, companies that seek to considerably reduce their carbon footprint need to invest heavily in new technology and energyefficient equipment. It is true that this is bound to bring real savings in the long run, but in the short term requires considerable financial resources, which is likely to pose a real challenge for smaller businesses or companies beset by financial difficulties (of course, human involvement is not costly per se; however, once all the low hanging fruits are collected, the investment becomes significant and results become meaningful). The same goes for compliance with strict environmental standards (which likewise entails higher short-term spending). One of the implications is that government assistance might be called for, albeit not without certain caveats, in the form of, for instance, tax breaks and/or specific subsidies. Equally significant, owing to its potential impact on a company’s profits and, by implication, on the payment of a dividend, investment in technological solutions that bring savings over a longer period of time might be viewed unfavorably by those stakeholders (i.e., shareholders) mainly interested in short-term gains. However, due to the specificity of the hospitality industry, things are far more complicated. Hospitality is characterized by the existence of different stakeholders who, as a rule, have divergent priorities and interests. Currently, it is possible to distinguish between three main actors on the hotel market: owners of hotel properties, hotel operators, and hotel distributors. A hotel property owner simply possesses the hotel building, an operator runs it, while the distributor is responsible for marketing and managing the reservations system (typically for a group of hotels). The relationships between these key stakeholders assume different forms and have considerable impacts on the operational schemes of a particular facility. If a hotel is owned and operated by the same company, a decrease in operational costs (through, for example, a reduction of water and energy consumption) can be, and usually is, one of the management’s top priorities. However, if the building is owned by one company and rented by the operator, it might be hard to reconcile the interests (and objectives) of both stakeholders in respect to resource

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utilization and modernization (or renovation) of the building systems. Besides, the owner of the hotel property may also own the operator company, but may decide to outsource management of the facility to another company. Many distributors are simultaneously employed in the hotel operators business, while individual operators often set up alliances in order to enhance the effectiveness of their marketing and sales schemes (and to reduce costs). In sum, these potentially conflicting priorities of different stakeholders might also affect the conception and implementation of decarbonization initiatives. That said, the experience of the top hotels presented in this section shows what might be done to address these potential difficulties. Hence, it is possible to come up with a number of concrete managerial policy guidelines that can be applied while devising and implementing corporate strategies and CSR-inspired programs aimed at reducing carbon footprints. Consequently, sustainability managers in charge of executing this task should: one, adopt a holistic attitude and, apart from introducing standard decarbonization measures (such as installing energy-efficient lighting or purchasing green power or carbon offsets), get hotel employees and guests involved in creative (and learning-oriented) undertakings that raise ecological awareness and highlight the need to cope with climate change (they might consider, like Scandic or Fairmont, making CSR-inspired environmentalism an explicit core value or a center piece of the business model); two, ensure that the program is well thought out and sets unambiguous but achievable objectives (targets); three, provide employees with genuine support and make sure that the program is not a one-off project but a continuous effort (in the spirit of corporate environmentalism); four, keep the program fun, encourage the spirit of competition, and monitor employee perceptions of and reactions to it; five, develop and put into place environmental (sustainability) management IT systems (such as ESCAP Enviro or LightStay) that, using meaningful indicators (such as energy in kWh per guest room or energy in kWh per square meter of floor area), monitor and show (in an understandable and, ideally, vivid manner) the environmental performance of particular establishments; six, persuade their suppliers (subcontractors, collaborators) to pay attention to environmental issues and to comply with green legislation (for instance, cooperate with those taxi and car-rental firms that use hybrid, electric, or biofueled vehicles and with those developers that, while designing and constructing new buildings, abide by strict environmental standards and use innovative and technologically advanced solutions); and seven, cooperate with external organizations and institutions that have valuable expertise and experience in innovative projects

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(such as Marriott’s rainforest protection initiative) that aimed at carbon footprint reduction.

CONCLUSION Throughout this chapter the authors have attempted to show, with a view to disseminating best practice, what the hospitality industry in general and selected top hotel chains in particular have already done (and what they plan to do) in order to address the implications of climate change. The chapter has focused on specific companies, because all of them have developed and put into place highly innovative and original schemes. Fundamentally, it transpires that the decarbonization strategies pursued by the top representatives of the hospitality sector bear all the hallmarks of a holistic approach. In practice, this means that apart from employing such measures as installing energy-efficient appliances or switching to renewable or low carbon energy sources, all the hotel corporations place (to varying degrees) great emphasis, on the one hand, on raising environmental awareness among employees and guests (by getting them involved in in-house education programs and creative ecofriendly initiatives) and, on the other hand, on cooperating with external entities (such as green nongovernmental organizations or independent institutes). However, as has been highlighted in the final part of the previous section, the implementation of such holistic programs is not void of certain difficulties and, therefore, can potentially constitute a veritable challenge. It follows that the managers responsible for this task risk being confronted with such problems as change aversion on the part of staff, high initial costs of investment in ecofriendly technologically advanced equipment, or poor interdepartmental coordination. They might also find out that some employees regard green awareness raising as corporate indoctrination and are hardly willing to voluntarily take part in certain environmental activities. In addition, they ought to allow for the existence of potentially hard-toreconcile interests and priorities of different hospitality sector stakeholders, which might make it problematic to carry through certain CSR-inspired decarbonization projects. Nonetheless, evidence from the top hotel companies presented in this chapter provides proof that it is possible to effectively address these difficulties. The reason that the holistic aspect has been stressed repeatedly is because of its critical, implication-laden importance. By raising ecological awareness

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and instigating change in human attitudes and behaviors, international hospitality companies serve par excellence the public interest. After all, installing a more energy-efficient appliance, be it in a hotel or in a factory for that matter, contributes, however marginally, to reducing the global carbon footprint, but also brings concrete savings in the long run, thereby helping to minimize costs that is in the very interest of any for-profit business. Yet, when hotel guests and employees, having participated in creative ecological undertakings, start putting into practice green ideals at home (e.g., by replacing old-type light bulbs with new low-energy ones or using a bike instead of a car), hospitality-corporations-led ecofriendly education is likely to make a long-lasting positive impact on the environment and the condition of the planet (and thus is in the interest of all). Additionally from a managerial perspective, employee engagement holds the key to the successful implementation of CSR-inspired initiatives. Of course, the very fact that a company goes to great lengths to protect the environment and to reduce its carbon footprint might, in the eyes of an increasing number of talented and ecologically minded graduates, act as a draw card and persuade them to apply for a job, which is particularly significant in the context of the global struggle for talented employees. There is little doubt that despite certain criticisms, which are far from baseless, CSR is likely to be increasingly embraced by businesses operating in different sectors all over the world. This is because nowadays more and more people simply expect companies to behave ethically and ecologically. If they fail to do so, they might be punished by citizen consumers who can urge, through the Internet social networks, their friends to boycott the products and services of corporate offenders. One can justifiably argue that CSR has a special role to play in the hospitality sector whose success rests to a large extent on the state of the environment and the quality of the service provided. Hence, many hospitality companies (such as Scandic) are often regarded as models of environmentalism-oriented CSR. However, to recap, one has to realize that CSR, to be truly effective, needs to be embraced wholeheartedly. At the same time managers in charge of implementing concrete initiatives should follow, above all, scientific evidence and common sense rather than political correctness and activist pressure. It is true that the science and economics of climate change is far from being unambiguously settled and that much depends on the global agreements. Yet, the fact remains that a lot can be achieved thanks to innovative individual initiatives (such as rainforest protection or reforestation projects). The tourism industry as a whole has set itself ambitious goals in the area of CO2 emission reductions. It is important to reiterate that both

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tourist activity and emission volumes are expected to increase in the next two to three decades. This implies that decarbonization efforts will need to be intensified so as to reverse unfavorable trends. In the light of the above analysis, it is fair to say that international hotel companies are well prepared to face this challenge (although, arguably, some of the decarbonization tools they have employed of late need to be refined further), and that generally, hospitality (which has indeed made progress since the early 90s in this respect) compares favorably with other sectors of the economy. The authors hope that this chapter offers informative insights of interest to practitioners and theoreticians alike. Its principal objective is to disseminate best practice and to prompt further research into the issues under consideration. Hence, for example, researchers might consider investigating the cost effectiveness of concrete mitigating measures by calculating their impact on a company’s (or an individual establishment’s) financial performance in the short and long terms. It might also be informative to see whether CSR-inspired programs really contribute to changing employees’ and guests’ attitudes to environmentalism in general and climate change in particular. It could also be of value to examine what smaller independent hotels and hospitality establishments (which usually pay far less attention to CSR-inspired environmentalism than their bigger and less financially constrained counterparts) have done in the area of climate change mitigation. It is legitimate to claim that the challenge of climate change and the implications of CSR are bound to remain the focus of public and managerial interest in the near future. Indeed, climate change and social responsibility are likely to occupy a central place on the agendas of politicians and managers alike since, to cope effectively with climate change, coordinated action is needed both at governmental and corporate levels. A failure to impose adequate carbon pricing, which forces fossil fuel plants to pay for the environmental cost of the carbon they generate, is likely to slow the propagation of carbon-free and/or low-carbon sources of energy, thereby making it harder for hotels and other businesses to honor their green commitments). In this sense, this chapter makes a contribution to a fastgrowing literature and topical policy debates.

Chapter 6

THE CRUISE SECTOR AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Ross A. Klein Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada

Abridgement: The cruise sector promotes itself as a responsible steward of the ocean environment and claims its policies and practices protect the marine ecology. As such, it would argue that its activities do not significantly contribute to global warming and climate change. However, there is disconnect between what the cruise sector says it does and what cruiseships actually do in relation to the environment. This chapter looks at the sector’s environmental practices and how it contributes to climate change. This is both directly through greenhouse gases and indirectly through degradation of the marine environment, as well as the prospects for the sector to voluntarily take responsibility for its part of the problem. Despite a poor record on voluntary efforts, the chapter calls on the cruise sector to embrace initiatives that bring its behavior in line with its public pronouncements about environmental responsibility. Keywords: cruise sector; environmental impacts; ship-based pollution; environmental violations

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 113–130 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003009

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INTRODUCTION The cruise sector says it is a responsible steward of the ocean environment and claims its policies and practices protect the marine ecology. As such, it would argue its activities do not significantly contribute to climate change. However, there is contradiction between what the cruise sector says it does and what cruiseships actually do in relation to the environment. Cruiseships’ impacts on the marine environment have implications for those who depend on the oceans for their livelihood, and have serious wide-ranging implications as many of the practices contribute to the problem of climate change. Some of these impacts are direct, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, while others are less direct insofar as they are related to degradation of the environment below the ocean surface. Some argue the cruise sector may benefit from climate change as sea levels rise and new areas (such as the Northwest Passage of Canada between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans) become accessible (Dawson, Maher and Slocombe 2007). Others suggest melting ice may have a negative impact on cruise tourism in these areas as distribution of sea ice presents challenges to navigation (Stewart, Howell, Draper, Yackel and Tivy 2007). In either scenario, the marine environment is under siege. Increasingly common are news stories of dying coral reefs, of dead zones in coastal oceans (more than 95,000 square miles), and of forms of sea life becoming extinct or seriously threatened (Diaz and Rosenberg 2008). It has been acknowledged that the health of the marine environment is directly related to climate change, in that a changing climate negatively impacts the marine environment, but likewise degradation of ocean and coastal environments exacerbate climate change as oceans become less able to serve as a carbon sink (Nellemann, Corcoran, Duarte et al 2009). It is in this context that the cruise sector continues to expand with little sign of slowing. At the end of 2008, members of the Cruise Line International Association (CLIA), a trade organization and lobbyist representing 98% of cruiseline capacity serving North America, collectively had 189 ships with accommodations for close to 300,000 passengers plus a further 125,000 crew members. Over 13 million people took a cruise on CLIA-member cruiselines in 2008. Worldwide the number is closer to 18 million and the number of ships exceeds 260 (CLIA 2008). The cruise sector regularly claims to be a responsible steward of the ocean around the Americas, but its behavior has brought more than US$50 million in fines since 1998 (CruiseJunkie 2009), undermining such claims. While boasting profits of billions of dollars and paying virtually no corporate income taxes in the United States or in other host countries, cruiselines

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appear to place increased profit above environmental protection. They have been adept at avoiding legislation and regulations that would force them to clean up their act through significant spending on lobbyists in Washington, DC ($22 million since 2000; $5.8 million in 2008 alone) and on strategic contributions to US federal and state election campaigns (Klein 2005). Contributions to political campaigns elsewhere are more difficult to track. This chapter looks at the pollution of air and water, generated by cruiseships. The first section looks at the cruise sector’s record with regard to environmental practice. This is followed by a discussion that identifies and explicates cruiseships’ waste streams and their impact on the environment. The final section returns to the issue of climate change and discusses the sector’s lack of focus or concern about the problem. A Brief History of the Sector The cruise sector has grown phenomenally since the emergence of leisure cruising some 40 years ago. Passenger numbers in North America more than doubled between 1970 and 1980: from 600,000 to 1.4 million. They increased fivefold in the 20-year period from 1980 to 2000: from 1.4 million to close to 7 million. Between 2000 and 2008, passenger numbers grew another 89% to 13.2 million (CLIA 2008). This pattern of growth in the cruise sector is expected to continue. More than 26,000 berths were added by 10 new ships built in 2008, which on an annual basis adds more than one million passengers. Another nine new ships were delivered in 2009, contributing more than 23,000 berths. A further 12 ships with 33,000 berths will be delivered in 2010, and in 2011 at least seven new ships with 16,000 berths are planned. Taken together, new construction over four years (2008 through 2011) will add 38 new ships with more than 100,000 berths. On an annual basis this results in approximately five million additional passengers. The size of ships has also increased dramatically. In their early days, ships could accommodate 750–1,000 passengers, but new purpose-built cruiseships are increasingly taking on larger proportions. By the late 1990s, new ships launched by Carnival and Royal Caribbean were accommodating more than 3,300 passengers. These were soon eclipsed in 2006 by Royal Caribbean’s 160,000-ton Freedom of the Seas with the capacity for 4,370 passengers and over 5,700 people in total including crew. More recently this was overtaken by Royal Caribbean’s Oasis of the Seas introduced in December 2009, weighing 220,000 tons and accommodating more than 7,000 passengers (at capacity) and carrying a complement of close to 2,000 crew members. It is staggering to compare this to the ships Royal Caribbean and

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Carnival started with—Song of Norway at 18,000 tons and 724 passengers, and Mardi Gras at 27,300 tons and 1,024 passengers. Environmental Violations The cruise sector has had a very rocky record in terms of environmental pollution. The takeaway message from this record is that voluntary improvements and trust-based verification measures are insufficient to protect air and water quality from this ever-expanding sector. As will be noted below, the majority of environmental violations occur in Alaska. This is because Alaska is the only jurisdiction in the world that regularly and effectively monitors cruiseship emissions and enforces its pollution regulations. Environmental concern about cruiseships first emerged in the 80s. By the early 90s this concern led to surveillance by the US Coast Guard. Initially the US government reported violations to the country where offending ships were registered, but it saw no change. In October 1992, the US government ‘‘y told the International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environmental Committee meeting that it had reported Marine Pollution (MARPOL) violations to the appropriate flag states 111 times, but received responses in only about 10% of the cases’’ (Lloyd’s List 1993:3). Consequently, the United States began stricter enforcement for pollution violations in 1993. Between 1993 and 1998, it charged 104 ships with violations involving illegal discharges of oil, garbage, and/or hazardous wastes (United States Government Accountability Office 2000). The largest fine, $9 million, was levied against Royal Caribbean International in 1998. The following text (www.cruisejunkie.com/envirofines.html for a more comprehensive list) provides an overview of the environmental conduct of cruise companies. The issue of pollution from cruiseships became widely known when Royal Caribbean pled guilty in July 1999 to 21 counts of dumping oil and hazardous chemicals and lying to the US Coast Guard (Frantz 1999). With plea agreements in Miami, New York City, Los Angeles, Anchorage, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, the company agreed to pay $18 million in fines (Department of Justice 1999; Rosenberg and Doscher 1999); it was also fined $3.5 million by the state of Alaska (New York Times 2000). Just one year earlier Royal Caribbean Cruise Limited paid $9 million in fines to settle cases initiated four years before in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Miami. Despite the fines, there were subsequent violations. Royal Caribbean Cruise Limited’s Celebrity Cruises were charged by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for air pollution violations in the waters of Juneau, Seward, and Glacier Bay in the summer of 1999 (Bellisle 2000), and

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was fined for violating Alaska’s state smoke opacity standards in Juneau between mid-July and mid-August 2000 (InforMARE 2001). In 2007, Royal Caribbean International was cited by Alaska for violation of visible air emissions standards by two ships (Golden 2008b), and both Royal Caribbean and Celebrity Cruises were cited twice for air quality violations in 2008 (Golden 2009). However, Royal Caribbean Cruise Limited violations do not only relate to air emissions. In June 2001, Celebrity Cruises’ Mercury illegally discharged treated wastewater at Juneau without required permits. In December 2003, two Royal Caribbean ships were cited for 12 violations of Hawaii’s Memorandum of Understanding (CruiseJunkie 2009). In 2006, Celebrity Cruises’ Mercury was fined $100,000 by the Washington State for dumping 500,000 gallons of untreated wastewater into Puget Sound 10 times over nine days in 2005 (McClure 2006, 2007). In addition, Alaska cited Royal Caribbean for two wastewater violations in 2008 and one in 2009 (CruiseJunkie 2009), including discharge of 20,000 gallons of wastewater into Chatham Strait in Southeast Alaska by Rhapsody of the Seas (Klein 2008). These discharges are contrary to a public assurance made by the company’s CEO on September 24, 2003, responding to environmental action campaign Oceana, in which he stated that the company discharges its sewage and gray water ‘‘only when we are 12 or more miles from the shore and moving at least six knots’’ (Fain 2003). Royal Caribbean is not the only cruise sector violator. Carnival Corporation’s Holland America Line was fined $2 million in 1998 for a 1995 incident in which it pumped oily bilge water overboard in Alaska’s Inside Passage 13 times in 10 days (U.S. GAO 2000). The corporation’s ships were also cited for violating Alaska’s state smoke opacity standards: both Carnival Cruise Lines and Holland America Line were charged for violations in 1999 (Bellisle 2000), and again in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004 (www.cruisejunkie.com/envirofines.html). In July 2006, Holland America Line’s Zuiderdam had a generator malfunction that caused the ship to spew black smoke and soot over three blocks in Skagway, Alaska (CruiseJunkie 2009). In 2009, Holland America Line was cited twice for violating Alaska’s smoke opacity standards; its sister line, Princes Cruises, was cited once. Both cruiselines were also cited for violations in 2008 (CruiseJunkie 2009; Golden 2009). On other violations, Carnival Cruise Lines’ Holiday discharged 768,000 gallons of gray water (nearly 40,000 gallons per week for 20 weeks) into the port of San Pedro, CA. In May 2001 Holland America Line’s Westerdam discharged gray water while docked in Juneau. In February 2002, Carnival

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Corporation’s Cunard Line’s Carnonia was detained and fined $410,000 by Brazilian authorities after nearly 8,000 gallons of heavy fuel oil spilled into Guanabara Bay near Rio de Janeiro. In August 2002, Holland America Line’s Ryndam discharged approximately 40,000 gallons of sewage sludge into Juneau Harbor and subsequently was fined $2 million (CruiseJunkie 2009). In April 2002, Carnival Corporation pled guilty to numerous occasions, from 1996 through 2001, of discharging oily waste into the sea from their bilges by improperly using pollution prevention equipment and for falsifying the Oil Record Book on six ships to conceal its practices. The plea agreement imposed a $18 million fine and required the company to have environmental officers on all its ships. It was also required to file compliance reports with the court (Klein 2005). Within a year the company was back in federal court after a probation officer reported the company failed to develop, implement, and enforce the terms of the environmental compliance program (Dupont 2003; Perez 2003). Then in July 2004, the former vice president for environmental compliance of Holland America Line, pled guilty to certifying environmental compliance audits that were never performed (Klein 2007). Several months before, in March 2004, Holland America Line notified the United States and Netherlands governmental authorities that one of its chief engineers had admitted to improperly processing oily bilge water on Noordam for at least the past three months (Klein 2005). However, there were other violations as well, including in November 2006, when Carnival Corporation’s P&O Australia’s Pacific Sky illegally dumped 500,000 liters of oil in Vanuatu waters. The Sunshine Coast Daily reported on November 13 that deep holes were dug, lined with thin plastic, and then filled with oil and raw sewage. The site was within 1 km of a village and school, and was just above a river used for drinking, washing, and swimming. The motivation for the illegal dump was that it would cost $30,000 to properly dispose of the waste at approved facilities in the region, whereas dumping it illegally cost them less than $200. The corporation also has a poor record in Alaska. In 2008, Carnival Corporation’s Princess Cruises received 30 notices of violation and its Holland America Line received eight notices of violation for violating its wastewater permit. In 2009, Princess Cruises received 54 notices of violation and Holland America Line received eight. In addition, both Holland America Line and Princess Cruises were cited for multiple air quality violations in 2008 (Golden 2009) and 2009 (CruiseJunkie 2009). Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) has also had its share of environmental violations. In 2000 and 2001 it was cited for violating Alaska’s smoke opacity standards (CruiseJunkie 2009). Also in 2001, NCL’s Norwegian Sky

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discharged sewage for 20–30 minutes, leaving a waste stream of up to threequarters of a mile, while the vessel was en route from Juneau to Ketchikan and within three miles of the Alexander Archipelago (Lloyd’s List 2001). In 2000, the Justice Department subpoenaed records from NCL after its parent company, Star Cruises, reported it had uncovered questionable practices prior to its ownership of the company (Doscher 2000). The Coast Guard was already pursuing its own investigation (Joshi 2002) after a former officer on NCL’s Norway had gone to the US EPA in 1999 with piping diagrams and videotaped evidence of oil dumping by the ship. EPA began an investigation, but months into it, senior Norwegian officials were faxed an anonymous letter warning that the former officer had tipped off the EPA. Its agents already had come across other disturbing information. The Norway had few of the legally required records for its wastes and had apparently routinely dumped sewage and hazardous waste into the ocean for years (Adams 2002). In July 2002, NCL pled guilty to discharging oily bilge water between May 1997 and May 2000, and for falsifying discharge logs (Department of Justice 2002). The company was fined $1 million and ordered to pay $500,000 toward environmental service projects in South Florida (Adams 2002). Like Royal Caribbean, NCL did not appear to learn from these experiences. In February 2003, passengers aboard the Norwegian Wind photographed crewmembers throwing garbage and plastic overboard while the ship was en route from Hawaii to the Fanning Islands (Kubota 2003). The case, which received wide media attention, was investigated but not prosecuted. Then in May 2003, the Norwegian Sun was cited by the state of Washington for an illegal discharge of 16,000 gallons (40 tons) of raw sewage into the Strait of Juan de Fuca, a documented Orca whale habitat. NCL did not deny the discharges, but argued the state lacked jurisdiction over the discharge. The state dropped its case (Associated Press 2003). NCL also had several violations of its Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Hawaii (CruiseJunkie 2009) in 2005 and 2007, and in 2008 and 2009 was cited by the state of Alaska for violating its wastewater discharge permit (Golden 2008c; CruiseJunkie 2009). Also in 2008, the cruiseline was cited for a violation of Alaska’s air quality standards (Golden 2009).

BELIEVE WHAT WE SAY, NOT WHAT WE DO Despite its environmental record, the cruise sector presents itself as environmentally concerned, responsible, and reformed after all the pollution

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incidents in the 90s and early 2000s. They attempt to disarm critics with statements such as, ‘‘We visit some of the most pristine areas of the world and our income depends on them staying that way, so why would we pollute?’’ This exact statement has been made several times in radio interviews and in public forums where this author has appeared with representatives of the International Council of Cruise Lines (ICCL). On the surface, it is a compelling argument, but as can be seen, is contradictory to the cruise sector’s actual behavior. There are two additional examples that effectively illustrate the inherent contradiction. In April 2002, representatives from environmental organizations, the city of Monterey, the state of California, and the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary met in Monterey Bay with cruiselines planning to visit Monterey and told them that if they could not refrain from dumping pollution into the bay, they were not welcome. Crystal Cruises was among the four cruiselines that sent a letter to the city signed by its Vice President Joseph Valenti that read ‘‘Crystal Harmony will observe a no-discharge policy in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary y This policy will apply to all wastewater, ballast water, water discharged through the oily water separator, and all forms of solid waste’’ (Madigan 2003). In late February 2003, it was learned, through the California State Water Resources Control Board’s review of ship’s logs, that Crystal Harmony had in fact discharged 34,078 gallons of gray water, 264 gallons of treated sewage, and 2,118 gallons of processed bilge water into Monterey Bay. When asked why they had not reported the discharge when it occurred, Valenti defended the silence by saying the company had only broken its promise. It hadn’t violated any laws (Laidman 2003). The ICCL President Michael Crye also dismissed the violation, telling a news reporter the ship’s discharge occurred 14 miles from the coast so it was not illegal (Fletcher 2003). The people of Monterey expressed their extreme displeasure with these discharges. On March 18, 2003, the Monterey City Council voted to bar all Crystal cruiseships from entering the port of Monterey for 15 years and barred the Crystal Harmony forever (Madigan 2003). Several weeks after the July 1999 plea agreement between the Department of Justice and Royal Caribbean, the CLIA, formerly known as the ICCL, made a commitment on July 27 to standards for waste management. CLIA assured all those concerned that ‘‘y member lines have strengthened their own environmental policies and procedures, and closely monitor onboard activities to ensure these standards are maintained. The internal procedures are designed to meet existing and comprehensive federal, state, and international standards designed to prevent discharges from all commercial

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vessels’’ (ICCL 1999:1). CLIA restated its environmental commitment two years later in June 2001 with ‘‘New Mandatory Environmental Standards for Cruiseships’’. The standards were announced while the Alaska State Senate was in a special session considering legislation that would authorize monitoring of cruiseships emissions and the enforcement of environmental standards. It also followed two new cruiseships violations in Alaska waters in May 2001; Norwegian’s Norwegian Sky discharged sewage for 20–30 minutes while the Alexander Archipelago and Holland America’s Westerdam discharged 100 gallons or more of gray water while docked in Juneau (Klein 2003a:108). As demonstrated, the commitment did not end environmental violations. In 2009, CLIA CEO Terry Dale was quoted in the New York Times stating that ‘‘all our members must have environmental policies and practices in place’’ (Conlin 2009). Yet, CLIA’s member lines, including Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian, continue to violate environmental laws as evidenced by violations in Alaska during the 2008 and 2009 cruise season. While the CLIA commitments and supposed mandatory standards set protocols for performance, there are no criteria for verification and enforcement, nor are there any regulatory targets or pollution levels. Furthermore, no member cruiseline has ever been publicly sanctioned, nor had its membership in CLIA withdrawn for environmental violations. Cruiseship Pollution Cruiseships are not the most environmentally friendly form of transportation. On average cruiseships emit three times more carbon emissions than aircrafts, trains, and passenger ferries: Carnival, which comprises 11 cruiselines, said in its annual environmental report that its ships, on average, release 712 kg of CO2 per km y This means that 401 g of CO2 is emitted per passenger per kilometer, even when the boat is entirely full. This is 36 times greater than the carbon footprint of a Eurostar passenger and more than three times that of someone traveling on a standard Boeing 747 or a passenger ferry (Starmer-Smith 2008:4). However, the problem is greater than just CO2. A moderate-sized cruiseship on a one-week voyage with 2,200 passengers and 800 crewmembers is estimated to generate up to 210,000 gallons of human sewage (this

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would fill approximately six large swimming pools), one million gallons (the equivalent of 30 swimming pools) of gray water (water from sinks, baths, showers, laundry, and galleys), and 8 tons of garbage (the weight of a school bus) (Copeland 2008). Waste from cruiseships may increase algal blooms, potentially increasing the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2. However, the larger impact on the environment and climate are unknown, for example, the extent to which plankton depends on other elements in the ocean ecosystem. This is of particular concern, given that coral reefs support over one million plant and animal species, and they are susceptible to, among other sources, persistent organic pollutants (including sewage) from cruiseships (Nellemann et al 2009). The cruise sector frequently claims its pollution is only a small part of the problem, given the proportionately larger number of other ocean-going vessels and that these vessels too produce waste. While this may be true for waste streams, such as oily bilge water and emissions from burning fuel, it is not the case with other pollutions. With its large number of passengers and crew, wastes such as sewage, gray water, solid waste, and air emissions from incinerators are substantially greater on cruiseships than on other ships. A Congressional Research Service report estimates that 24% of the solid waste generated by vessels worldwide (by weight) comes from cruiseships (Copeland 2008:5). In addition, because cruiseship operations tend to concentrate in the same geographic locations and along the same sea routes, their cumulative impact on local areas can be significant. Add to this the potential for, and reality of, accidental discharges. The environmental impacts of cruiseships are a serious concern. Water Pollution Black water, otherwise known as human sewage, is the waste from cruiseships’ toilets and medical facilities. A cruiseship produces more than eight gallons of sewage per day per person (EPA 2008a:2-1), cumulatively as much as 45,000 gallons per day, and over 300,000 gallons on a one-week cruise. The black water contains harmful bacteria, pathogens, disease, viruses, intestinal parasites, and harmful nutrients. If not adequately treated, they can cause bacterial and viral contamination of fisheries and shellfish beds. In addition, nutrients in sewage, such as nitrogen and phosphorous, promote algal growth. Algae consume oxygen in the water which can be detrimental or lethal to fish, coral, and other aquatic life (EPA 2008a: 2-8:11). The consequent reduction of biodiversity in the oceans can have negative implications for the capacity of the marine environment to serve as

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a carbon sink, and directly impact climate change (Nellemann and Corcoran 2006). Treated sewage can be discharged within three miles of the US shoreline. It is not regulated beyond three miles. In other jurisdictions, discharge of untreated sewage is prohibited within four miles of the coastline, although the regulations are not consistently enforced. Sewage from cruiseships has traditionally been treated by a type II marine sanitation device (MSD). Type II MSDs are the most common type of wastewater treatment systems on cruiseships and consist of flow-through devices that break up and chemically or biologically disinfect waste before discharge. Type II MSDs are supposed to produce effluent containing no more than 200 fecal coliform for 100 milliliters and no more than 150 milligrams per liter of suspended solids. Whether MSDs achieve that standard was called into question in 2000 when the state of Alaska found that 79 of 80 samples from cruiseships were out of compliance. According to the Juneau port commander for the Coast Guard, the results were so extreme that it might be necessary to consider possible design flaws and capacity issues with the Coast Guard-approved treatment systems (McAllister 2000). The problems identified in 2000 with MSDs continue today (EPA 2008a). The cruise sector in recent years has adopted the use of advanced wastewater treatment systems (AWTS, an advanced form of type II MSD) on many ships, most often ships visiting Alaska’s Inside Passage, where such systems are required for continuous discharge in state waters. A ship with an AWTS avoids the need to travel outside Alaska State waters to discharge treated sewage. Installation of AWTS for ships visiting other waters with less stringent or no regulation has been at a much slower pace. AWTS are a vast improvement over MSDs, yielding what the sector refers to as drinking-water-quality effluent. However, this terminology must be treated with skepticism. Such water cannot be recycled for onboard human consumption, nor can it be used in the laundry because sheets and towels apparently turn gray. Both the EPA and Alaska have found that even the best systems still had difficulty with a number of constituents. The AWTS does not adequately address nutrient loading, which means they pose similar problems as MSDs with regard to nitrogen and phosphorous. They are not consistently effective with copper, nickel, zinc, and ammonia as well (Alaska DEC 2004:29) and have exceeded Alaska Water Quality Standards for concentrations of chlorine and tetrachlorethylene; 60% of ships permitted to discharge in Alaska waters violated discharge limits in 2008, logged 45 violations involving seven pollutants (Golden 2008a). In 2009, 72% of ships permitted to discharge in Alaskan waters violated Alaska discharge limits during the season, racking up 66 violations involving nine pollutants.

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Most type II MSDs and AWTS filter solids from sewage as part of treatment. This yields on average 4,000 gallons of sewage sludge per day (National Marine Sanctuaries 2008:43). Cumulatively it adds up quickly. In some cases (about 1 in 16 ships with an AWTS), sewage sludge is dewatered and then incinerated. In other cases sludge is dumped at sea. Discharge of sludge is normally permitted beyond three or four miles of shore. The sludge has a high oxygen demand and is detrimental to sea life. It poses the same problem as sewage, but in a more concentrated form. One option is to require sewage sludge to be dewatered and incinerated onboard. However, incineration creates an air quality problem (not related to greenhouse gases [GHG]) and the ash must be disposed of somewhere. Dumping the ash overboard raises new problems. Another option is to require sewage sludge to be held onboard and offloaded for treatment in port. The problem with dumping ashes or sludge at sea is that it negatively impacts the health of the marine environment and the ability for the oceans to serve as a carbon sink. Gray water is wastewater from sinks, showers, galleys, laundry, and cleaning activities aboard a ship. It is the largest source of liquid waste from a cruiseship: as much as 90 gallons per day per person, over half a million gallons per day for a ship such as Freedom of the Seas. Like sewage, gray water can contain a variety of pollutants. These include fecal coliform bacteria, detergents, oil and grease, metals, organics petroleum hydrocarbons, nutrients, and food waste, as well as medical and dental waste (Copeland 2008). The greatest threat posed by gray water is from nutrients and other oxygen-demanding materials (Copeland 2008:4). Gray water was until recently largely unregulated in the United States. However, effective from February 6, 2009, cruiseships must meet treatment standards for gray water as well as 25 other types of incidental vessel discharges from ballast water to deck runoff when operating within three miles of the US shoreline. Gray water is unregulated in jurisdictions outside the United States. A study by VTT Technical Research Center in Finland found that wastewater from cruiseships contributes annually into the Baltic Sea 356 tons of nitrogen and 119 tons of phosphorus (Seatrade Insider 2009a), both of which have a negative impact on the health of the marine environment. A cruiseship produces a large volume of nonhazardous solid waste. This includes huge volumes of plastic, paper, wood, cardboard, food waste, cans, glass, and the variety of other wastes disposed of by passengers. It was estimated in the 90s that each passenger accounted for 3.5 kg of solid waste per day (Herz and Davis 2002). With better attention to waste reduction, this volume has been cut nearly in half in recent years. But the amount is still

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significant, more than 8 tons in a week from a moderate-sized cruiseship (Copeland 2008). Glass and aluminum are increasingly held onboard and landed ashore for recycling when the itinerary includes a port with reception facilities. Food and other waste that is not easily incinerated is ground or macerated and discharged into the sea. These ‘‘y food wastes can contribute to increases in biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, and total organic carbon; diminish water and sediment quality; adversely effect marine biota; increase turbidity; and elevate nutrient levels’’ (EPA 2008a:5–11). They may be detrimental to fish digestion and health and cause nutrient pollution (Polglaze 2003). Under MARPOL, no garbage can be discharged within three miles of shore. Between 3 and 12 miles garbage can be discharged if it is ground-up and capable of passing through a one-inch screen. Beyond 12 miles, most food waste and other garbage can be discharged at sea. A typically large cruiseship will generate an average of 8 metric tons of oily bilge water for each 24 hours of operation (National Research Council 1995). According to Royal Caribbean’s 1998 Environmental Report, an average of 25,000 gallons of oily bilge water on a one-week voyage was generated. This water collects in the bottom of a vessel’s hull from condensation, water-lubricated shaft seals, propulsion system cooling, and other engine room sources. It contains fuel, oil, wastewater from engines and other machinery, and may also include solid wastes such as rags, metal shavings, paint, glass, and cleaning agents. The risks posed to fish and marine organisms by oil and other elements in bilge water are great. In even minute concentrations oil can kill fish or have numerous sublethal effects such as changes in heart and respiratory rates, enlarged livers, reduced growth, fin erosion, and various biochemical and cellular changes (Copeland 2008). Research also found that by-products from the biological breakdown of petroleum products can harm fish and wildlife and pose threats to human health if these fish and wildlife are ingested. Within 12 nautical miles of the US coastline, ships are prohibited from discharging bilge water unless it has been passed through a 15 parts per million (ppm) oily water separator and does not cause a visible sheen, the same standard as contained in MARPOL. Beyond 12 nautical miles, oil or oily mixtures can be discharged in the US Exclusive Economic Zone if the undiluted oil content is less than 100 ppm (a figure higher than the 15 ppm permitted by MARPOL). A ship also produces a wide range of hazardous waste. These include photoprocessing chemicals, dry cleaning waste, used paint, solvents, heavy

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metals, expired chemicals and pharmaceuticals, waste from the print shop, hydrocarbons and chlorinated hydrocarbons, and used fluorescent and mercury vapor light bulbs and batteries (EPA 2008a:6-2:3). Although the volume produced by a ship may be relatively small (less than 1,000 liters in a typical week), the toxicity of these wastes makes them a serious concern. Hazardous wastes must be carefully managed in order to avoid their contamination of other waste streams (gray water, solid waste, bilge water, etc.). The cruise sector appears to comply with regulations applying to hazardous waste, but it is impossible to know with certainty given limited oversight by almost all jurisdictions around the world. Air Pollution There are two sources of GHG air emissions from cruiseships: incinerators and engines. Each presents its own set of issues. While the focus here is on pollution from the cruiseships themselves, others point out that cruise tourists contribute to GHGs in their transportation to and from the ship, as well as in their activities ashore. These additional sources can be significant (Amelung and Lamers 2007). Cruiseships incinerate and burn a variety of wastes, including hazardous wastes, oil, oily sludge, sewage sludge, medical and biohazardous waste, outdated pharmaceuticals, and other solid wastes such as plastics, paper, metal, glass, and food. A cruiseship may burn 1–2.5 tons per day of oily sludge in these incinerators and boilers (California Cruise Ship Environmental Task Force 2003). The emissions from onboard incineration and its ash can include furans and dioxins, both found to be carcinogenic, as well as nitrogen oxide, sulfur oxide, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, particulate matter, hydrogen chloride, toxic and heavy metals such as lead, cadmium, and mercury, and hydrocarbons (Bluewater Network 2000). In contrast to incinerator use on land, which is likely to be strictly monitored and regulated, incinerators at sea operate with few regulations. MARPOL Annex VI bans incineration of certain particularly harmful substances, including contaminated packaging materials and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). There are no national or international standards limiting emissions from ship incineration. Air emissions from ship engines are an obvious source of pollution, because many ships burn bottom-of-the-barrel bunker fuel. Typically what remains of the crude oil after gasoline and the distillate fuel oils are extracted through distillation. An estimated 60,000 people died worldwide in 2002 as a result of underregulated shipping air emissions, and that number is estimated to grow by 40% by 2012 due to increases in global shipping

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traffic (Corbett, Winebrake, Green et al 2007). According to the US EPA, ocean-going ships each year emit 870,000 tons of nitrogen oxide, a key contributor to smog and GHG. Conventionally a cruiseship’s environmental impact is likened to the impact of 12,000 automobiles (Oceana 2003). A study published in 2007 raises an even greater alarm. It found that bunker fuel on average has almost 2,000 times the sulfur content of highway diesel fuel used by buses, trucks, and cars and that one ship can make as much smog-producing pollution as 350,000 cars (Waymer 2007). While sulfur is not directly related to GHGs, it is of concern given its impact on human life and the marine environment. A number of ships began using gas turbine engines in the late 90s and early 2000s, well before the spike in fuel costs in 2007. These gas turbines are considerably better than conventional cruiseship engines in terms of sulfur and nitrous oxide emissions, but produce significantly higher volumes of CO2. Most bunker fuels today average 3% sulfur content. New international standards will require a reduction of ship fuel sulfur content to 0.5% in 2020 or 2025. In contrast, California requires use of marine gas oil, or marine diesel oil with a sulfur content of no more than 0.5% by weight in all diesel engines within 24 nautical miles of the coast (sulfur content of marine gas oil drops to 0.1% sulfur in 2012). Use of lower sulfur fuel reduces particulate matter by 58%, sulfur by 99.6%, and oxides of nitrogen by 11% (Klein 2003b). Cruiselines resist low-sulfur fuels because of the cost. The North American Emission Control Area, announced by the United States and Canada and approved by the International Maritime Organization in 2009, would reduce sulfur content to 0.1% in 2015, but is opposed by the cruise sector because it would add $15–20 to the cost of a cruise per passenger per day (Seatrade Insider 2009b). Another way in which air emissions can be curtailed is by imposing reduced speed limits as cruiseships approach ports. In February 2009, the Port of San Diego moved forward with a vessel speed reduction program (Port of San Diego 2009). Cruise and cargo ships are asked to voluntarily reduce their speed when entering and leaving San Diego Bay to 15 knots for cruiseships when traveling in an area that extends 20 nautical miles out to sea from Point Loma to 12 knots for cargo ships. According to port officials, studies have shown a significant reduction in emissions of oxides of nitrogen, oxides of sulfur, diesel particulate matter, and CO2 when speed is reduced (California EPA 2009). Similar programs in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have reportedly saved more than 100 tons of nitrogen oxide from going into the air in the first three months of implementation (Port of Los Angeles 2005). Cold ironing provides another option to grapple with the

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problem of air emissions from engines. It allows for ships to turn off all engines while in port and to plug into shore side power. Cold ironing was first introduced in 2001 in a partnership between the port of Juneau and Princess Cruises and is slowly propagating to other locations, including the ports of Vancouver, Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Seattle. Cold ironing should be encouraged, if not required, worldwide. An initiative, which appeared at first to have potential, was introduced in June 2007 by Holland America Line. It announced a pilot project that used a saltwater air emission scrubber on its Zaandam. The scrubber was supposed to reduce emissions, chiefly sulfur. However, at the end of the summer cruise season in the Pacific Northwest, it was learned that the scrubber system was actually contributing to an increase in GHGs. This system, which uses seawater pumped through the stacks to chemically scrub sulfur and other contaminants from ship emissions and then dumps the water back overboard, was actually contributing to an increase in GHGs. Research out of Sweden and the United Kingdom indicates ‘‘that when sulfuric acid is added to seawater by scrubbers, carbon dioxide is freed from the ocean surface. Each molecule of sulfuric acid results in release of two molecules of carbon dioxide as the ocean attempts to retain its alkaline balance’’ (Montgomery 2007).

CONCLUSION The first part of this chapter looked at the cruise sector’s environmental record. While the sector claims to be a good steward of the ocean environment, its behavior reflects a different image. The problem is that the sector’s public announcements cannot be trusted. Sadly, to date the sector has not directly addressed their contribution to climate change. Instead, it has increased incinerator use to reduce solid waste and has resisted efforts to burn cleaner fuel and to reduce its production of GHGs with claims that the initiatives cost too much. This is not to say that the sector has not taken steps to conserve fuel, but these initiatives have been motivated more by economic realities (fuel conservation saves money) than concern about climate change. For example, Costa Cruises, like other cruiselines such as the Royal Caribbean, uses silicone-based coatings on its ships’ hull to enhance hydrodynamic performance and reduce the growth of microorganisms on the hull surface (Costa Cruises 2009; Royal Caribbean Cruises Limited 2009). The goal is saving fuel. If the goal were reduction of GHGs,

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then cruiselines would respond positively, in fact embrace calls for use of low-sulfur fuel. The second part of this chapter discussed the environmental impacts of cruiseships. Some, such as air emissions from engines and incinerators, directly contribute to GHGs and impact climate change. Others, such as black water, gray water, oily bilge, and nonhazardous waste, are also a concern given their deleterious effect on the marine environment. As discussed by Nellemann et al (2009), ‘‘maintaining or improving the ability of oceans to absorb and bury CO2 is a crucial aspect of climate change mitigation’’ (p.6), especially given that some 93% of the earth’s CO2 is stored and cycled through the oceans. There is need for greater focus on the ways that cruiseships contribute to marine pollution and how they can adopt measures to reduce the release of pollutants into the seas. It is not only a concern about protecting coral reefs, but reducing the flow from cruiseships of everything from sewage and wastewater to oily bilge water and food waste. Climate change poses a mixed bag for the cruise sector as some ports may be negatively impacted by rising ocean levels while other ports and areas may become more easily accessible. The exact nature of these changes is difficult to predict, given the lack of scientific consensus. Regardless, there is little doubt that cruise tourism and the cruise sector contribute to climate change. One set of concerns is the GHGs that are produced by burning fuels and incinerator use, as well as through other modes of transportation used by cruise passengers to get to and from the point of embarkation/ disembarkation and for tours taken while ashore. The effects associated with the ship itself can be mitigated by shifting to cleaner fuels (something resisted by cruiseships because of associated costs) and by use of effective scrubbers on smokestacks for both engines and incinerators. Though there are costs associated with such measures, the cruise sector earns significant profits. Carnival Corporation alone has earned between $1.8 and 2.4 billion in each of the past five years. The costs are surmountable given the economic health of the major cruise corporations. A second set of concerns relates to pollutants flowing from cruiseships into the marine environment. The largest volume and most notable are treated sewage and wastewater. However, there are also significant volumes of food waste, oil contained in oily bilge water, and solid waste. Technology exists for further reducing the deleterious impact of each of these waste streams. However, they cost money and therefore affect the cruiseline’s profitability. For example, more effective sewage treatment systems would require additional space and would displace a number of revenue-generating

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passenger cabins. It is time the cruise sector took the question ‘‘why would we pollute the pristine environment of the oceans when our livelihood depends on it remaining pristine’’ more seriously and significantly increased its efforts to reduce air and water pollutants generated by cruiseships. Protecting the marine environment has an immediate value of bringing cruise sector behavior in line with its claims. In addition, reducing the release of pollutants from its ships into the environment, both air and water, reflects a positive step by the sector to address the problem of climate change. While it is tempting to recommend that individual governments and international governing bodies legislate and regulate ocean-going vessels more effectively, the urgency for change suggests it is more expedient for the cruise sector to voluntarily adopt measures that significantly reduce pollution from its ships. Despite the fact that voluntary approaches for greater environmental responsibility have in the past been found to be ineffective (OECD 2003), the sector could be motivated by greater pressure from nongovernmental organizations, higher expectations from consumers, and an inherent threat by governments that legislation will be forthcoming if voluntary actions are not taken.

Chapter 7

CASE STUDY: ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY IN NEW ZEALAND’S BUDGET ACCOMMODATION SECTOR Stephanie Haskell Catchlight Design Ltd, New Zealand

Jonathan Tunnell New Zealand Youth Hostels Association, New Zealand

Abridgement: The Youth Hostels Association (YHA) of New Zealand has been widely recognized and awarded for its leading environmental and sustainability initiatives in the tourism industry. The concern for the environment is an important part of YHA’s organizational culture since its beginnings in the 30s when the first youth hostels were opened in New Zealand. In 1992 an Environmental Charter adopted by the International Youth Hostel Federation (IYHF) was quickly implemented by YHA New Zealand. Since then a large number of sustainability initiatives have been put in place throughout the whole network of 56 hostels. This case study details these initiatives as well as the challenges that YHA New Zealand faces in this context. Keywords: hostel accommodation; sustainability; triple-bottom-line; efficiency; New Zealand

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 131–141 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003010

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INTRODUCTION The Youth Hostels Association (YHA) of New Zealand is a registered charity. It is a membership-based organization with governance vested in the national board. YHA New Zealand has a network of 56 hostels throughout the country from the far north to right down south to a proposed ecofriendly hostel and learning center on Stewart Island, for which YHA is currently fundraising. Twenty-five of these hostels are owned and operated by YHA New Zealand. The rest consists of 31 associate partnerships with independently owned and operated hostels that operate under the YHA brand and follow its standards of quality and consistency, including its comprehensive and award-winning sustainability initiatives. The YHA New Zealand National Office is situated in Christchurch. From there a full-time sustainability coordinator is responsible for building capability within the association and coordinating sustainability initiatives. YHA New Zealand is a member nation of the not-for-profit International Youth Hostel Federation (IYHF), which operates under the brand name Hostelling International (HI). HI consists of over 80-member associations in countries all around the world. In 1989, an IYHF survey revealed that guests staying in youth hostels were very interested in environmental issues (YHA 1993). As a result of this survey IYHF developed and formally adopted an Environmental Charter at its 1992 biennial conference, which YHA New Zealand resolved to adopt and implement at its 1992 Annual General Meeting. This committed the association to conserving energy, salvaging recyclable waste, using recycled products, minimizing pollution, using environmentally friendly materials and consumer products, supporting the protection of wildlife habitats, and developing hostels as sustainable living centers as reported in its 1993 Annual Report (YHA 1993). YHA New Zealand was one of the first national member associations of IYHF to formally adopt its Environmental Charter and reported in the 1996 Annual Report that its progress was foremost among the then 64 associations of the IYHF (YHA 1996). For YHA New Zealand working toward implementation of the IYHF Environmental Charter seems to have been a natural choice, as concern for the environment is an integral part of its organizational culture since the early hosteling days in the 30s when YHA New Zealand was founded by Cora Wilding. Cora believed that outdoor living, clean air, appreciation of natural beauty, and country life among other healthy pursuits could only make New Zealand a better place (Sargison 2007). These beliefs continue today in the association, in which many members of regional branches were instrumental in supporting early hostels and

Environmental Sustainability in NZ’s Budget Accommodation Sector 133 activities through voluntary work. These members provide a link to the association’s history and assist in furthering its aims and philosophy toward caring for the environment. The long-standing concern for the environment has naturally progressed in the past decade into concern for the world climate. YHA is committed to combating climate change within all aspects of its business, as the hard reality is that every aspect of hostel accommodation operations has an impact on the environment, something that the association believes it cannot ignore. To have continued success as a tourism business in New Zealand is to be inextricably tied to the country’s clean green image in alignment with the government’s 100% Pure New Zealand brand. YHA has formalized its commitment to environmental sustainability within its mission statement and sustainable development policy (http:// www.yha.co.nz/Sustainability/). The mission is: ‘‘To deliver services to members which enrich their understanding of others and the environment by providing quality accommodation and travel experiences’’. YHA is committed to sustainable development, which is defined as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. This commitment is expressed through triple-bottom-line reporting considering not just its economic performance but also its social and environmental performance. It is the responsibility of the sustainability coordinator to ensure that the triplebottom-line principles are communicated and understood across YHA. Senior management is responsible for ensuring that appropriate measures are established, recorded, maintained, and reported. Some of these measurements include a regular staff climate survey that evaluates staff satisfaction as part of the association’s social performance and carbon emissions measurements for its environmental performance. Sustainability is all pervasive in YHA’s policy, procedures, longterm strategy, and systems.

YHA INITIATIVES To meet the association’s goal of reducing its environmental impact, in particular to reduce its carbon emissions, a large number of sustainability initiatives have been incorporated into hostel operations. Some of these form part of the organization’s minimum standards and have been implemented throughout its network. The details of these initiatives are outlined below.

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The time frame for the initiatives presented in this chapter is between 1993 and 2009. There are many more initiatives that are being planned, but for this case study only the initiatives that are already in place are detailed. It should also be made clear that for most of YHA New Zealand’s sustainability initiatives, they are undertaken in the 25 YHA-managed hostels in the network. The associate hostels are strongly encouraged to follow these initiatives and are required to meet minimum standards in areas like recycling in order to be part of the YHA network. Energy Conservation and Waste Reduction YHA is working to maximize energy efficiency using green and renewable energy sources in order to minimize its carbon emissions and other harmful impacts of its activity. Achievements in reducing energy consumption include: replacement of all light bulbs throughout the hostel network with energy-efficient bulbs, insulation of all hot water cylinders, trial and use of the Quantum solar-assisted hot water heating system in the Nelson, Christchurch City, Queenstown Lakefront, and Wellington City hostels, use of more energy-efficient heat pumps, recladding of the Wellington City hostel to incorporate double glazing on windows, and installation of heat recovery systems in the Wellington City and Auckland International hostels saving up to 40% of energy needed to supply their hot shower water. For the 2009–10 financial year the energy reduction target has been set at a further 4% reduction for all of the YHA-managed hostels. YHA New Zealand believes that it is vitally important to show a commitment to combating climate change and conserving electricity is a major part of this. As a result YHA is continuing to work on this, hostel by hostel, throughout the network as and when they have the funding to do so. When the New Zealand Government launched its new recycling brand Love NZ––Recycle with Care in 2008, the award-winning YHA Wellington City hostel was chosen to showcase the brand to the public and media. This is recognition of YHA New Zealand’s comprehensive and industry leading recycling schemes in place throughout the entire hostel network. All YHAmanaged hostels have recycling facilities for plastic, glass, tin, aluminum cans, batteries, fluorescent tubes, paper, and cardboard. The associate hostels are able to recycle most of these as well. All associate hostels must sign an agreement with YHA New Zealand to stipulate minimum standards around recycling. Recycling facilities in the hostels are located prominently in the kitchen areas, lounge areas, and increasingly within the guest rooms as well.

Environmental Sustainability in NZ’s Budget Accommodation Sector 135 In hostels without separate recycling bins in guest rooms, the cleaning staff separate recyclables before disposing of nonrecyclable waste to landfill. The YHA Christchurch City hostel increased its amount of recycling by 100% when staff implemented initiatives to separate recyclables from guest room rubbish. At YHA’s National Office in Christchurch the marketing and sales department also works hard to reduce waste to landfill. In 2008, a membership card manufactured from renewable cornstarch was introduced and membership kits became fully recyclable.

Reducing Carbon Emissions YHA New Zealand entered into a partnership with Landcare Research to participate in and promote the Certified Emissions Measurement and Reduction Scheme (CEMARS). CEMARS enables YHA to measure its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in compliance with ISO 14064-1 (international specification with guidance for quantification and reporting of GHG emissions and removals), understand its carbon liabilities, and put in place management plans to reduce emissions in the organization and more widely through the supply chain. Knowing the association’s carbon footprint is the first step to taking action to reduce GHG emissions and hence impacts on climate change to lead to cost savings and potential market opportunities (CarboNZero 2009). Five facilities with the highest emissions or specific emission issues have been initially incorporated into this scheme. They are YHA Wellington City, YHA Auckland International, YHA Christchurch City, YHA National Office, and YHA Greymouth. The advantage of the CEMARS scheme is that it provides a framework to collect accurate data on its carbon emissions and gives a clear benchmark from which to compare in years to come. YHA New Zealand has been measuring carbon emission data since 2004, but this data have never been third-party audited or all inclusive. Early data collection, for example, did not measure the amount of waste to landfill but under the CEMARS system waste to landfill is now being measured. Having a third-party accreditation on the five hostels incorporated into the scheme will ensure that accuracy of measurement takes place. The same system will be applied across the other 20 YHA-managed hostels. The year 2009 was the benchmark year for YHA New Zealand’s carbon emission reduction scheme. The sustainability coordinator is confident that over the next five years the association will be able to show a reduction in its emissions, and progress toward its goal of ultimately being carbon neutral. It has been

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acknowledged that this is a longterm target, but YHA New Zealand has now put in place a solid foundation from which to achieve this.

Organic Waste and Water Conservation YHA New Zealand is committed to taking responsibility for the tons of organic waste generated by the hostels each year to assist in reducing its environmental impact. Solutions have been found for over 70% of organic waste in the YHA-managed hostels. Worm farms deal with food waste in a number of the hostels and composting areas have been set up in hostels that have the outdoor space. Other methods used include an organic waste processor at the YHA Lake Tekapo hostel and collection of food waste for animals occurs at the three Christchurch YHA locations (two hostels and the National Office). This is the most convenient and least labor-intensive method of collecting organic waste. The association’s goal is zero organic waste to landfill. Backpacking guests who use the hostel kitchens are shown through prominent signage, as well as with staff encouragement, where to put all their food scraps and wastage. It is therefore made very easy for all hostel guests to recycle. Water is a precious commodity. YHA New Zealand is therefore committed to minimizing its excess use. Not only will this help to preserve this resource for future generations, but by decreasing the consumption of water in the hostels the association can also reduce its extremely large water costs. The accommodation industry as a whole is generally an excessive user of water due to multiple guest showers, toilet, and laundry use. YHA New Zealand installed low-flow showerheads in YHA Auckland International hostel as an initial trial. This initiative reduced the average flow rate from 14.8 to 9 liters per minute, a 45% reduction in water volume. Guests at the Auckland hostel were surveyed and stated that they had not noticed any perceivable difference in the quality of their showers. These low-flow showerheads are now being installed throughout the YHA hostel network to save millions of liters per year. Consumption savings with low-flow showerheads are twofold, as not just water is saved but also energy. All YHA-managed hostels additionally have CleverFlush water saving devices installed in every toilet. This can reduce the amount of water needed to flush each toilet by up to 12,000 liters per year. Guests while staying at YHA hostels are encouraged through signage to minimize the use of water while cooking and washing. YHA New Zealand has made some important strides toward water conservation in the past few years and realizes that there are

Environmental Sustainability in NZ’s Budget Accommodation Sector 137 still many other areas that need to be addressed in order to further save water. Community Support Another area in which YHA New Zealand is helping to combat climate change is by being actively involved in a number of community and environmental projects. Each of the YHA-managed hostels works with local environmental groups to make a difference to its own local environment and community. Over 4,000 native trees and shrubs have been planted in the Coes Ford reserve in Christchurch as part of the Green Footprint Project which YHA New Zealand set up in conjunction with Landcare Research, Selwyn District Council, and the Waihora Ellesmere Trust. The purpose of the Green Footprint Project is to provide overseas tourists using the hostel network the opportunity to invest in a local biodiversity project. It has proven so successful that a part-time coordinator is now based in Wellington with initial funding support from the Ministry of Environment’s Sustainable Management Fund. The person coordinates the planting of trees at two sites in the Wellington area, at the Wellington Zoo, and at Queen Elizabeth Park. YHA New Zealand now intends to annually increase the number of trees planted at all three green footprint sites. Various YHA hostels throughout the country have worked closely with their community partners, for example, with the Karori Wildlife Sanctuary in Wellington and providing assistance in the natural regeneration of Matakohe-Limestone Island, Whangarei, and Pigeon Island, Queenstown, among many other projects of this kind over the 75-year history of the association. It has sponsored many environmental initiatives over the years including a successful 9-year partnership with the Department of Conservation to organize and promote the YHA Young Conservationist Awards. The association currently is a sponsor of the Queenstown Lakes District Zero Waste Awards. Currently YHA New Zealand has a special community project of its own. The association is raising money to build an ecohostel on Stewart Island incorporating a 60 m2 open plan educational learning center that is being designed primarily to meet the needs of New Zealand school groups. The intention is that the YHA hostel will help ensure that some of New Zealand’s most beautiful and ecologically diverse lands remain accessible to young people now, and in the future. YHA New Zealand members and staff (both past and present) believe very strongly in preserving

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the beautiful natural environment in New Zealand so it is a very easy and natural fit for the association to get involved in community-based environmental projects. YHA Wellington has had a strong relationship with the Bachelor of Tourism Management program at Wellington’s Victoria University for many years. As part of their studies students of Tourism Management have the opportunity to learn about developing a sustainable property. The YHA Wellington hostel is used as an exemplar in this area with students visiting the hostel to learn about its sustainable building features. Chris Sperring, the YHA Wellington Hostel Manager, also presents further talks to the class and awards a prize to the best paper presented on the topic of developing a sustainable tourism property. Through this relationship with the university, YHA Wellington gives something back to the community by freely providing knowledge on how to be a sustainable business. At the same time it has proven to be an excellent way to recruit future staff into the hostel as these students have developed a strong interest in sustainability and fit well into the culture of the association. Procurement YHA New Zealand develops positive working relationships with preferred suppliers who share YHA New Zealand’s commitment to sustainability, and purchasing goods and services that minimize the impact on people and the environment. The association believes this type of relationship to be very important to help to combat climate change. Sustainability is therefore incorporated into YHA New Zealand’s procurement policy and processes. A recent example is that YHA New Zealand has negotiated a supply contract with Corporate Express who supplies stationery, general office supplies, and cleaning products. As part of this partnership, Corporate Express was required to demonstrate its ongoing sustainability commitment. As part of the contractual agreement YHA stipulated that all chemicals purchased from Corporate Express must carry a third-party environmental certification before the association will agree to use them exclusively. For stationery and general office supplies, recycled and unbleached supplies will be purchased wherever possible. All YHA-managed hostels are now required to buy their office and cleaning supplies from this one supplier and only the most environmentally friendly products are allowed to be purchased. All of the associate hostels will be encouraged to use this supplier as well.

Environmental Sustainability in NZ’s Budget Accommodation Sector 139 Challenges Like any business aiming to have a sustainable and carbon neutral operation, YHA New Zealand faces a number of issues in order to achieve its goals. Perhaps the biggest challenge the organization faces is obtaining the capital required to fund the larger sustainability projects, especially in the areas of energy efficiency and building. YHA is a registered charity operating a budget accommodation network in a highly competitive market, alongside other accommodation providers who operate on a commercial model. The association thus has limited capital funds and every dollar spent on energy efficiency, like the installation of solar hot water heating systems must be calculated against the opportunity cost of other developments. Nevertheless, YHA remains 100% committed to environmental conservation and sustainability. It is written into its charitable aims and objects at the very core of the association and in its triple-bottom-line reporting system. However, it looks to financial grants from the government to help fund its larger projects. In 2009, the association was successful in attaining funding from the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) to install a solar hot water heating system in the YHA Nelson hostel. However, this is only one hostel in the network. Sustainability coordinator Jonathan Tunnell and Property Manager Stuart MacWilliam, who has specialist expertize in energy conservation, have already commenced scoping plans to install more solar hot water heating systems in other hostels for which the association will continue to apply for funding from EECA to offset some of these costs. YHA New Zealand support EECA’s initiatives and wish that the New Zealand government would place a greater priority on energy efficiency as one way of helping keep New Zealand 100% pure. For instance, the government could allocate more funds toward energy efficiency projects including solar hot water heating systems and encourage businesses and homeowners to generate their own electricity using photovoltaic cells and micro wind turbines. It is YHA New Zealand’s vision that all hostels throughout the network in time achieve carbon neutrality. Central to that is a reduction in electricity consumption. Laundry facilities (a large part of total energy costs in the accommodation sector) are another area within YHA that require a significant outlay in capital funds to make the facilities more sustainable. Many washing machines are older models that use more water and energy than newer models, but obviously the capital outlay in replacing all of these at once is excessive. As these machines reach the end of their normal life they are replaced with machines that use less water and are more energy efficient.

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For instance, the YHA Mt Cook hostel’s laundry currently requires a complete refurbishment at a cost of nearly NZ$50,000 (US$35,000), which will result in significant water and energy reductions. The return on investment for this project is over six years which is a lengthy payback period for a registered charity. For recycling, a continuing challenge for YHA New Zealand are the local bodies in some, more often rural, parts of New Zealand which do not yet have effective recycling facilities or collection routes in place. This makes it much more difficult for the hostels located in more remote areas to recycle their waste. Sending the waste to another town that does have recycling facilities means that the carbon emissions saved by recycling are lessened due to the kilometers traveled to get to the recycling facilities. There are also still issues for organic or food waste collection in some parts of the YHA network, especially in the Auckland and Queenstown hostels, as there seems to currently be insufficient local infrastructure in place to deal with the organic waste streams in these locations. This also highlights the differences between the rural and urban hostels in the network. An answer that can be found for one location cannot be applied to all, and this keeps the sustainability coordinator and other YHA staff members very busy to find local solutions in each of the areas where its large network of hostels are located.

CONCLUSION YHA New Zealand has won many awards for its sustainability efforts in the tourism industry. Since 2006 it has received multiple honors in the Sustainable Business Network Awards, with YHA Wellington City picking up the National Trail Blazer award in the not-for-profit category for two years’ running in 2007 and 2008. The YHA National Office, YHA Christchurch Central, YHA Auckland City, YHA Mt Cook, and YHA Wanaka hostels have all also won regional awards in the not-for-profit category. Qualmark recently launched the Qualmark Enviro accreditation in which tourism businesses are awarded a bronze, silver, or gold rating, alongside Qualmark’s traditional star quality rating award. In the mid 2009 only YHA New Zealand hostels (YHA Wellington City, YHA Arthur’s Pass, and YHA Franz Josef) had achieved the gold standard in the backpacker category. For the nine Qualmark Enviro-Silver ratings awarded throughout the country’s backpackers, eight of these are YHA hostels.

Environmental Sustainability in NZ’s Budget Accommodation Sector 141 YHA Wellington City recently won the best large hotel/accommodation provider award in the prestigious 2009 Virgin Holiday Responsible Tourism Awards. These awards recognize all types of tourism operators worldwide that are making a significant commitment to the culture and economies of local communities and are providing a positive contribution to biodiversity conservation (Virgin Holidays Responsible Tourism Awards 2009). It is a significant win for YHA New Zealand to showcase its commitment to sustainability on an international stage. These awards are recognition of its industry leading sustainability initiatives and reporting systems. It is important for YHA New Zealand that it actually ‘walks the talk’ to combat climate change and leads the charge in this area within the country’s tourism industry. In summary, for nearly 80 years members of YHA New Zealand have expressed interest in and concern for this country’s natural environment. This environmentalism remains at the forefront of the association’s culture and values. It is embedded in the association’s industry leading triplebottom-line business reporting system, in the charitable aims and objectives, and cultivated by the sustainability coordinator, who is responsible for directing a range of sustainability initiatives throughout the large network of backpacker hostels across New Zealand. YHA New Zealand acknowledges that there is a significant amount of further work to be done to help to combat climate change. There is a commitment throughout the entire association to doing everything that it possibly can to neutralize its impact on the environment and to ultimately becoming carbon neutral. With the New Zealand brand image 100% Pure New Zealand at the top of mind of many international tourists to these shores, YHA New Zealand has aligned itself to meet their expectations. YHA New Zealand is confident that the rest of the New Zealand tourism industry will do the same.

Chapter 8

CASE STUDY: CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN THE RENTAL TRANSPORT SECTOR Lynn Briggs KEA Campers, New Zealand

Abridgement: Since 1995, award-winning New Zealand campervan and motorhome manufacturing, rentals, and sales company KEA Campers have ‘‘done the right thing’’ as much as possible. In 2007, the film An Inconvenient Truth made headlines, sustainability became the word on everyone’s lips, and KEA together with their peers in the New Zealand tourism industry suddenly realized that the country might not be as clean and green as they had been led to believe. This case study covers the achievements and challenges faced by KEA in trying to minimize their impact on the natural environment. Keywords: motorhomes; campervans; carbon offsetting; carbon emissions; New Zealand

INTRODUCTION KEA Campers was founded in 1995 on the North Shore of Auckland (NZ) by a German immigrant and a New Zealand builder. Today KEA is an international operation with over 1,000 rental campervans and motorhomes and 14 depots across New Zealand, Australia, and Southern Africa, as well as two manufacturing plants and shares in a fiberglass and coach building company. The company has won multiple New Zealand tourism awards and is a member of the New Zealand Tourism Hall of Fame. KEA’s management Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 143–153 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003011

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have long been aware that the European market is generally concerned about the environment and most (around 80%) of the company’s business has traditionally come from this region. Environmental awareness has always been present in the design of KEA’s vehicles and the operation of the business, and its directors ensure the company also has a focus on recycling, buying environmentally friendly products, and reducing waste (Table 1).

Table 1. KEA’s Environmental Initiatives to Date  KEA’s rental fleet is made up entirely of modern diesel vehicles. All vehicles are less than 2.5

        



    

years old, which means they are powered by the industry’s most efficient and environmentally friendly engines—reducing carbon emissions as much as possible, and utilizing the latest, most fuel-efficient technology as soon as it comes to market All KEA vehicles are certified to the latest international emissions control standards KEA’s VW base vehicles are recyclable to a minimum of 85% and reusable to a minimum of 95% by mass The campervan/motorhome component of the vehicles (everything except the chassis) is made in New Zealand All of KEA’s rental vehicles have diesel engines that are more fuel efficient. Diesel engines also produce less greenhouse gas emissions than petrol engines Particle filters in all the VW vehicles eliminate 85% or more of the diesel particle matter or soot from the exhaust gas of their diesel engines KEA uses long-life oils, which means the oil only needs to be changed every 15,000– 20,000 km KEA recycles vehicle waste oil Vehicle batteries are recycled All KEA campervans and motorhomes have solar panels fitted on the roof which charge the house batteries to power lights, fridges and water pumps, enhancing the life of the house batteries and reducing the need to use 240 V power Tyres are sent back to the manufacturer to be reduced to ‘‘crumb’’ that can be used to make other products such as rubber mats, hoses, carpet underlay, horse jumping arenas, or children’s playground surfacing Water filters in motorhomes reduce the waste of purchasing bottled water Timber for all interior joinery in the campervans and motorhomes comes from renewable plantations and is extremely light weight All campervans have waste water holding tanks KEA is heavily involved with the New Zealand Motor Caravan Association’s Dump Station Scheme and has sponsored the introduction of many dump stations throughout New Zealand KEA has recently started operating its Auckland transfer coach, which does in excess of 80,000 km per annum, on 100% biodiesel (used vegetable oils collected from restaurants and chicken cooking/processing operations), with a view to proving the viability of the introduction of biodiesel to the rental fleet at a later stage.

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As a vehicle rental provider, KEA’s customers hire campervans in order to drive. There is no easy solution to the issue of emissions reduction for a campervan operator, as business is generated by the customer using the campervan. Due to the nature of the business it is no surprise that 94% of KEA’s emissions are from customers’ fuel use. Campervan businesses rely on both vehicle manufacturers and fuel companies to reduce emissions by any significant level. While the operators can also make small improvements, it is ultimately the vehicle manufacturers and governments that need to lead the way. The financial crisis has led motor manufacturers to focus more on fuel consumption and on how to power vehicles.

KEA AND SUSTAINABILITY Like the rest of the industry, KEA recently realized that New Zealand tourism was not as clean and green as once believed and that the company would need to act in order to retain their environmentally aware customer base, which is primarily from Europe. As a result, a decision was made to increase the amount of environmental action the company was taking. As a tourism industry leader, KEA’s management were determined to set an example for the industry and for other New Zealand businesses. In doing so, KEA decided it would: develop a ‘‘Sustainability Policy’’; become benchmarked by a sustainability organization; involve all their staff; have their own green slogan, a green website, and green messages on the backs of all their vehicles; and educate their customers on how to travel by campervan in an environmentally friendly way. Although devising the policy was easy, its implementation was not. The initiative needed credibility. As a result KEA spoke to an environmental organization, which had gained attention internationally, about becoming benchmarked. The benchmarking process was relatively straightforward, in fact almost too straightforward! KEA already had a sustainability policy, so all that was required was to record KEA’s energy consumption and waste production. Interestingly, it was not a requirement of the benchmarking process to mention KEA’s campervans. However, KEA felt that the benchmarking organization should be more concerned about how to decrease the environmental impact of the 400-strong KEA NZ vehicle fleet and less concerned about its head office. Seeking an alternative, KEA contacted CarboNZero, which had also worked with various New Zealand organizations such as Meridian Energy

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(a New Zealand electricity company) and Grove Mill (a New Zealand winery). KEA was impressed with CarboNZero’s scientific approach to the carbon emission problem and their willingness to make a difference. CarboNZero advised KEA on how to measure the emissions from their campervan fleet, and the emissions were benchmarked so that they could aim to reduce them in the future. However, this benchmarking approach turned out to be a challenge for KEA from a business perspective. First, KEA was already using the most modern fuel-efficient vehicles available. As such, they could not achieve drastic improvements in this area by updating their fleet or buying more efficient vehicles; these did not yet exist. Second, sustainability, to KEA, was and still is not just about being environmentally friendly, but also about being able to sustain the business in the years ahead. KEA’s business model is such that after a maximum of 2.5 years, the rental vehicles are sold mostly to private owners. These buyers have specific demands of a campervan or motorhome, and one of these is a reasonable amount of engine power. KEA could look at reducing the engine power of their vehicles to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but this would reduce the appeal of the vehicles to the end consumer; and that would not be economically sustainable. As a premium rental operator, KEA also found customers were much more interested in renting the larger motorhomes that consumed more fuel. KEA reached the conclusion that reducing the emissions of their vehicles would largely depend on external factors that were beyond their control, such as the introduction of biodiesel throughout New Zealand, and further innovation and technological advances by the suppliers (vehicle manufacturers). From the perspective of educating their customers, there was only a certain amount that KEA (and KEA customers) could achieve within the current infrastructure. The industry faced a number of obstacles in terms of environmental challenges, including a lack of black and gray water dump points, and no consistent signage or centralized information on dump point locations and recycle points. KEA would look poorly organized if it pushed hard for customers to recycle, when there were no recycling points to do this. Going Carbon Neutral KEA reasoned that instead of just measuring improvements and showing that the company was improving its environmental performance over time, it could be a true industry leader, take a stand, and ‘‘go carbon neutral’’. The necessary data had already been collected and its management knew that their vehicle fleet traveled approximately 14 million kilometers, emitting

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4,500 tons of carbon over the course of a year. With carbon credits costing US$18 (NZ$25) a ton at that time, it would cost KEA approximately US$79,550 to completely offset the fleet’s emissions for a year. From a marketing perspective, this would gain the company huge credibility and from its customers’ perspective they would be safe renting a KEA Camper, with the knowledge that the emissions caused by their driving were offset by KEA. The marketing department was excited at this prospect, as this would be both welcomed by customers and set a benchmark for the industry; and if the whole country ended up going carbon neutral, KEA would be seen as an industry leader. In an attempt to assess the feasibility of this idea, the company enlisted the assistance of an expert on climate change and an advisor to the government in this area. He raised some very interesting questions for KEA. For example, if KEA paid to offset their emissions, would this create a perception that they were buying their way out of the problem. At the same time, even if KEA’s emissions decreased over time (which was always the intention), there was no guarantee of the price of carbon credits in the future. A couple of years later, the company might have only 4,000 tons of carbon to offset, but the price might be US$70 a ton, which would cost a great deal of money to offset. Once KEA had made the decision to go ‘‘carbon neutral’’, they could not easily backtrack due to the public relations implications. The last question related to the previous government’s (Labour-led) proposed fuel tax. What would KEA’s customers think if they had paid to rent a KEA Camper in the knowledge that their travel around the country had been offset, to then realize that they were expected to pay a similar carbon tax on the fuel they were buying? They could (rightly) assume they were paying twice for their emissions. Around that time, KEA discovered that carbon credits were being sold on the New Zealand online auction website TradeMe. The company bid but missed out on the auction. Afterwards, it contacted Meridian Energy (the vendor) and submitted a tender for 6,000 tons of carbon credits. The tender was accepted because very few New Zealand companies had bid. KEA started talking with CarboNZero about measuring their carbon emissions and found that there were many levels of emissions they could measure. However, there were many questions to address. What about the vehicles themselves, how would KEA be able to measure and potentially offset the CO2 emissions from the manufacturing process? What about freight to get the chassis from the offshore manufacturer to New Zealand, who would pay for that and what if they chose to offset and one of the component suppliers also offset for the same component—would this not be

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paying for the same thing twice? What about the emissions KEA’s rental customers generated while they were traveling around the country? Where would the company draw the line? KEA started thinking that paying money for carbon credits to offset their ‘‘unavoidable’’ emissions was not the right way to go. Therefore, they explored what else they could do to lessen their greenhouse gas emissions. Planting trees was one alternative. Lots of people were doing it, and it would be a tangible way to help offset CO2 emissions. So the question arose, how many trees would it take for KEA to offset their emissions? According to the Office of Sustainability at Tufts University (2009) an average 25-year-old pine tree absorbs 6.82 kg of CO2 per year. Which means it would take approximately 146.5 trees to offset 1 ton of CO2. Multiply that by 4,500 tons of emissions would mean that 659,250 trees would be required. It should be noted that the amount of CO2 a tree can offset differs significantly depending on the species of tree and the region in which it is growing (Save the Planet 2009). In any case, that amounts to a lot of trees and it would be safe to assume that this would require an area considerably larger than a rugby field. As a result, tree planting did not appear to be a practical option either. Thinking outside the box, KEA had yet another idea. The company could spend the money they would have used to purchase carbon credits on something worthwhile, tangible, and sustainable for their business by buying a wind turbine. It worked out that if they bought one reasonably sized turbine, it would produce enough energy to offset their emissions. Not only would this be visible proof of their commitment to the environment but it could also contribute excess electricity to the National Grid and thus produce a revenue stream that would contribute to costs. KEA contacted NZ Windfarms Ltd., who were very interested in talking about the proposal. But this too had its challenges. First, buying a wind turbine is not an easy process. Second, there would be a costly process to recognize these carbon credits. So even if the company was producing enough (renewable) energy to offset its carbon emissions, it could not ‘‘officially’’ call itself carbon neutral without having any carbon credits certified. All this left KEA’s management confused and concluding that there was a serious lack of understanding among the general public, in the business community, and at a political level about climate change and carbon credits. Combined with mass hysteria, this lack of understanding was dangerous as it could potentially challenge KEA’s economic sustainability. KEA felt that the company was trying to come up with answers when they did not really

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know what the questions were. As a next step, the company stopped trying to guess what customers wanted and conducted a customer survey.

KEA’s Consumer Research Over the course of several months during the high season, from November 2007 to February 2008, KEA surveyed every New Zealand rental and received a total of 616 responses. It should be noted that the results were only of people who actually traveled by campervan and thus did not include the real ‘‘greenies’’ who might not even get on a plane to travel to New Zealand, let alone hire a campervan. It would be interesting to conduct similar research in the key origin markets. Of the 616 responses KEA received (one for each rental hire), 26% were from Germany, 19% from the United Kingdom, and 33% from the Netherlands, Switzerland, and other parts of Europe. New Zealanders and Australians accounted for only 12% of the total respondents, and the remainder were made up of people from the United States/Canada (4%), and the rest of the world (Asia, the Middle East, South Africa) (6%), as shown in Figure 1. The age groups of the respondents are displayed in Figure 2.

Figure 1. Survey Responses by Country of Origin

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Figure 2. Respondents’ Age Groups

Figure 3. Consideration given to the Environmental Impact of Travel

The survey included the following questions (Figure 3): ‘‘When you were planning your trip, how much consideration did you give to the environmental impact of your travel?’’ German and British respondents, perhaps not surprisingly, were more likely to say that they considered their environmental impact as the ‘‘most important’’ factor in their decision making, or that they took it seriously when planning their trip. But the results were not entirely consistent with KEA’s expectations, even among

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Figure 4. Environmental Impact of Travel as Reported by European Respondents

just European countries. Among Germans, and especially among the British, there was also a proportion who said they gave ‘‘very little’’ or ‘‘no’’ consideration to their environmental impact when planning their travel (Figure 4). It was interesting that those in the age bracket of 26–40 years (33% of the total number of respondents) from almost every country were more likely to say they gave ‘‘very little’’ or ‘‘no’’ consideration to their environmental impact than those in higher age brackets. The survey also asked ‘‘If you were offered the option to offset the carbon emissions from your campervan trip, would you be interested?’’. 62% responded ‘‘yes’’ and 37%, a significant proportion, responded ‘‘no’’. For those who responded that they would be prepared to pay, the most popular amount was US$37 (NZ$50) in total (Figure 5). Next, KEA asked those who said that they would be prepared to pay how they would like to see this money spent (Figure 6). Just over 38% of respondents said they would like to see the money go toward alternative energy generation, 23.5% said tree-planting projects, and 21.7% said conservation projects (for instance saving endangered NZ wildlife). Finally, KEA asked its customers if they would be willing to pay a little more per day for their hire if the company were certified carbon neutral. Additionally, KEA asked whether their customers would be more likely to choose KEA over other campervan companies if the company were carbon neutral. About 80% of people responded ‘‘yes’’ to both questions.

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Figure 5. Amounts Respondents Are Willing to Pay for Emissions Offsetting

Figure 6. Suggestions about How Offsetting Funds Should Be Spent

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Interesting comments in this context include the following: ‘‘It is up to the citizens of New Zealand to take care of this problem’’ (several commented that ‘‘it’s not our problem’’); ‘‘We paid extra for the plane to travel carbon neutral’’; ‘‘If we paid money we would want to be well informed of what it was going towards’’ (several comments); ‘‘It should be included in our rates’’ (from a New Zealand respondent). The results of this research did not give KEA any clear answers but they did certainly highlight the fact that the number of customers concerned about the environment was not as large as they had originally thought. It was also evident that there was a lot of confusion in the marketplace about carbon credits.

CONCLUSION It is ‘‘back to the drawing board’’ for KEA. The company went full circle from what they had done all along, to ‘‘big bang’’ ideas, and ultimately back to where they had started. The company’s view is that there is no quick fix or easy option for one company to tackle this issue on their own; action needs to be industry-wide. When business decisions are made, it is important to look further than the short-term cost or benefit and to view this as an opportunity to do something positive, as well as to push the boundaries and come up with innovative ideas. It is also a chance to find like-minded suppliers and bring current suppliers on board to this way of thinking. Certifications or ecolabels are successful where they encourage companies to improve and make changes for the better, as long as the paperwork does not take over, because most New Zealand tourism companies are small and find that they do not have the resources for large amounts of paperwork. KEA would like to commend those companies in the tourism industry that are making a real effort to ‘‘do their bit’’. Every little bit helps, and KEA will certainly be continuing with activities regarding waste reduction and making the company and their campervans as energy-efficient and environmentally friendly as possible. KEA’s management looks forward to working with the rest of the industry on environmental initiatives and to hopefully, one day, being able to move forward with clear direction on the issue of greenhouse gas emissions.

Chapter 9

CASE STUDY: GREEN LIGHT FOR THE HOSPITALITY SECTOR Wouter Staal Philips Hospitality, The Netherlands

Abridgement: This chapter examines what the hospitality sector can do to reduce its own carbon footprint as well as that of its guests. In particular, it addresses the issue of lighting and certain consumer-oriented products used in hotels and other public places by examining solutions designed to reduce carbon emissions, cut operating costs, and create a pleasant ambience. These moves toward a low carbon experience for both business and leisure tourists are set against the stipulations of current legislation, barriers to change, as well as international initiatives to make travel greener. Keywords: energy efficiency; LED lighting; hospitality sector; mitigation; energy-saving lighting

INTRODUCTION While the impact of air and road travel on the environment has been high on the agenda for business and leisure tourists for some time, accommodation is another matter. Few hotels currently boast their green credentials as a differentiator, yet accommodation accounted for 21% of global emissions from leisure-related tourism in 2005, according to a report by the United Nations World Tourism Organization and the United Nations Environment Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 155–162 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003012

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Program (UNWTO-UNEP 2008). Business travel only adds to this statistic. The main culprits of emissions in hotels are lighting and electrical power consumption from TVs. The Spanish Government (ICEAN) estimated that up to 42% of the electricity costs in a hotel can be influenced by lighting. There is much the industry can do to provide solutions that not only promise to counter climate change, but also significantly reduce operating costs. It is a potential win–win situation that the hospitality sector cannot afford to ignore. Indeed, many hotel chains and other hospitality providers are already working hard to develop sustainability programs as well as source products and services that can support them in realizing their aims. Yet, despite a globally increasing sense of responsibility for a sustainable world, it would appear that for many a trip away from home also provides a holiday from a green conscience. According to the Hotel News Resource (2007), 60% of tourists fail to pack their green habits when they travel. Perhaps it is simply a case of passing the buck. In a survey of 2,000 customers conducted by the UK hotel chain Travelodge, almost 90% of respondents said they believed that hotels and tourism companies have a responsibility to operate in a way that protects the environment (Kyriakidis and Felton 2007). Additionally, the European Commission Action Plan on Energy Efficiency sees tourism as the industry with the largest energy-saving potential. Jointly, the UNWTO and other public and private organizations aim to achieve a 20% increase in energy efficiency for the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) hotel market by 2013 (UNWTO, UNEP, International Hotel & Restaurant Association, European Renewable Energy Council and French Environment and Energy Management Agency 2010). This chapter will examine some of the challenges facing the hospitality sector in reaching this milestone, looking at green solutions to attract environmentally aware guests, and review ways it can start to make concrete savings at the same time as playing its part in preserving the planet.

SEEING THE GREEN LIGHT Lighting alone accounts for 19% of the world’s electricity consumption (International Energy Agency 2006), creating a significant opportunity to cut emissions and bills; 40% of that consumption could be saved simply through innovative lighting technology. Many hotels are now equipped with systems that require guests to insert their key card to activate power throughout the room. However, even the greenest guests, perhaps nervous

Green Light for the Hospitality Sector 157 about returning to an unfamiliar room in the dark, have found ways to bypass this system. A credit card can be inserted into the power slot while guests retain the room key, allowing them to return to a fully lit room with the TV on. A European lighting survey conducted by Philips revealed that around 70% of the lighting installed in hotels is energy inefficient, and could be replaced by better alternatives which are already available. Other Philips research reveals that an achievable energy saving of 40% in all the lighting installed in Europe could save well over US$33 billion (h24 billion) in energy costs per annum. This equates to 85 MT of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per annum, 355 million barrels of oil per annum, or the annual output of 120 power plants per annum (2 TWh/annum). So what is holding back the adoption of energy-saving initiatives? Resistance to Change While Thomas Edison is widely credited with inventing the incandescent light bulb, his patent for ‘‘Improvement in Electric Lights’’ filed on October 14, 1878 was preceded by several decades of experiments by earlier inventors. Today those fortunate enough to have instant access to lighting generally take it for granted, oblivious to the fact that without it our entire developed-world lifestyle would be impossible. What is also interesting is that, for over 120 years, the energy-guzzling incandescent lamp (also known as general light source or GLS) has been the workhorse of the lighting world. While technological progress in other areas (such as TVs, communication, semiconductors, aviation, to name a few examples among thousands) has been exponential, the basic lighting technology until recently had moved on surprisingly little since Edison first saw the light, perhaps because it had not needed to. However, as the dangers of greenhouse gas emissions become ever clearer, the incandescent bulb has been put firmly in the spotlight. Incandescent lamps account for about 7% of global energy consumption and give rise to 3% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. They are inefficient in use, wasting 95% of the energy they consume as heat. All this has been recognized at a very high level; the EU’s ‘‘Energy using Products’’ directive outlines a phased withdrawal of GLS lamps between 2009 and 2016, and governments around the world have taken similar measures (EU 2009). However, the move has not been popular among many consumers. They complain about the type of light emitted by alternatives to GLS lamps, so many rushed to stockpile incandescent bulbs before the first phase of the ban became effective on September 1 2009.

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What’s the Alternative? So where does this leave the hospitality sector? It is difficult when consumers are demanding green initiatives from hotels, on the one hand, while expecting the kind of light they have been used to all those years, on the other. The good news for the hospitality sector is that there are attractive alternatives to GLS lamps that will satisfy consumer demand for lighting that can be controlled, as well as complying with legislation. Until recently, compact fluorescent lamps were the energy-saving standard to replace GLS technology. Such a typical lamp in the United States saves over $30 in electricity costs as well as 2,000 times its own weight in greenhouse gas over its lifetime. Now, however, light-emitting diode (LED) or solid-state lighting has quickly become the new frontrunner. The technology not only delivers energy efficiency, but also reduces the total cost of ownership, since the lifetime of a light source is extended by 3–5 times compared to a compact fluorescent lamp and 15 times more than a GLS lamp. What is more, the additional benefits of lighting effects, such as the wellknown sparkle produced by incandescent or halogen lamps (a halogen lamp works on the same principle as an incandescent lamp, but the bulb is filled with an inert gas as well as halogen that increases the lifetime of the bulb and prevent the bulb glass from darkening), is virtually replicated by LED. The size and flexibility of LEDs mean they can be used to create ambience and atmosphere in ways that were previously considered impossible. So while compact fluorescent lamps have proven their worth as an interim solution, the shining light of the future for the hospitality sector is very much LED technology, and with 120-year-old technology already being phased out, the time is certainly right for innovation in the lighting industry. Actions Addressing Climate Change A number of hotels throughout Europe have already taken the decision to review their lighting. For example, the Hilton family of hotels set out to achieve 20% energy savings for all its hotels between 2009 and 2014, as well as reducing CO2 emissions and the volume of waste generated by the same amount (Hotel News Resource 2008). The Hilton Amsterdam is at the forefront of this initiative. It opted for energy-saving light bulbs because of the immediate savings they could deliver (Philips 2009). Guests’ initial reactions suggest that the new lamps are being well received, and the hotel is reporting savings of 80% in terms of energy consumption (Philips 2009). With a lifespan of 45,000 hours (compared with a service life of just 4,000

Green Light for the Hospitality Sector 159 hours for a 35 W halogen bulb), the LED lights will have paid for themselves within a year, and will then continue to deliver savings for many years to come. Another advantage is that the bulbs need changing only every five years instead of every five months, which reduces maintenance costs. Because the lights give off less heat, the rooms will require less cooling, so there is even potential for further savings. The Sol Melia´ hotel chain, with 85,000 rooms in 30 countries, is Europe’s third largest. As part of the group’s SAVE initiative to minimize its environmental impact, energy-efficient lighting solutions were investigated. The challenge for the chain’s newest hotel, the Gran Melia´ Palacio de Isora in Tenerife (which opened in July 2008), was to find alternatives for conventional halogen lamps in the bedrooms. SpotLED luminaires proved the ideal solution; they have reduced the consumption of each light source from 35 to 12 W, representing energy savings of 66% and a 463 kg/year reduction in CO2 emissions per room. Thanks to an average lifetime of 50,000 hours, the lighting requires little or no maintenance. Lighting installed in the central dome in the ceiling of each bedroom has further reduced consumption by 88%, and cut CO2 emissions by an additional 4,269 kg/year. The Palacio de Isora Hotel’s 20 communal areas now almost all use LED lighting, and both functional and decorative lighting solutions are equipped with a control system that can be used to create different lighting scenarios. There is also a touch screen in each of the main rooms to control the lighting and maximize energy savings. There are other ways of realizing significant savings through lighting, especially in large buildings that consist of many different areas, such as corridors, stairwells, and communal meeting areas, which have to be lit when someone uses the space and are consequently often lit all the time. The obvious solution is sensors to switch lights on only when they detect the presence of people or register unacceptably low levels of light coming in from outside. Yet currently, only 1% of buildings are equipped with such controls, representing a huge opportunity for change. The solution is a natural hit with hotels where the ‘‘key-in-slot’’ solution had failed to deliver the expected energy and cost savings. Stand-alone controls have automatic movement detectors and daylight-linking sensors, which deliver big energy savings. Intelligent systems detect people entering an area and automatically switch on lights in response, turning them off again when no one is detected. Obviously, initiatives are not just limited to lighting. There are many other easy ways to reduce energy wastage. The typical hotel room TV is often left on when guests leave the room and the SmartPower feature in

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Philips TVs enables the backlighting intensity to be reduced. This feature not only provides a more pleasant viewing experience, but also reduces power consumption by as much as 50%. Additionally, a special energy-saving mode switches the TV to standby mode (with extremely low power consumption of under 1 W) when it is not in use. Calculations show that these combined features generate energy savings that equate to cost savings of approximately $36,000 over a total lifetime of seven years across 100 rooms. Another example is the cup of tea or coffee enjoyed by countless hotel guests in their room. It comes at a cost, with millions of liters of water boiled unnecessarily each year. By something as simple as a kettle with a water-level indicator clearly showing when the device has just enough water for one or two cups, this can make a significant difference. Boiling the water needed for a cup of tea or coffee, rather than a full kettle, can save up to 66% in energy use. Knowing Where to Look Despite the positive stories and examples cited above, the hospitality sector has a long journey ahead. It is true that major refurbishment projects may well adhere to ISO 14001 environmental management principles or the Leadership in Energy and Design green building rating system, but there is often a lack of realization that smaller projects can also yield energy and GHG emissions savings. One of the main challenges in terms of sustainability is to raise awareness to a level where people are prepared to take action. This is especially true of lighting. Despite all the obvious benefits of switching to energy-efficient lighting sources mentioned earlier in the case study, the rate of conversion is still too low. In buildings in the EU, the conversion rate is currently 7% a year, which means that it would take almost 15 years before inefficient lighting sources are replaced completely. A perception among some people is that energy-saving light bulbs are more expensive, which is driving some resistance to their large-scale installation. Yet, in terms of total cost of ownership they can yield dramatic savings. They typically use around 80% less energy than incandescent bulbs, do not give off large amounts of excess heat that then has to be extracted via air conditioning systems, and need changing less frequently. Although the total cost of ownership for lighting like LEDs is much lower and the payback period is relatively short, people can still be reticent about switching because the initial cost is higher. This is of course a false economy. Taking the example of a fluorescent lamp, it may typically cost $4 as

Green Light for the Hospitality Sector 161 opposed to $0.70 for a conventional GLS lamp, but over its lifetime it can save up to $82 in running costs. Unfortunately, across the hospitality sector there is a lack of appreciation of the difference energy-efficient lighting can make. Of course the total cost of ownership will vary from country to country, depending on the cost of electricity from the grid. In France, where energy prices (at around $0.20/ kWh) are far lower than in most of the rest of Europe, potential energy savings are less of an incentive. In Denmark, conversely, where it costs twice as much, there is an even stronger case for being green (from an economic perspective alone). But it would appear that, unless governments can agree on cross-border incentives to promote green tourism, some countries are always going to lag behind. Misguided Priorities Lighting is often not high enough on the agenda in the hospitality sector. The headquarters of hotel chains may well have dedicated departments for aspects like furniture or TVs, but they will not have one for lighting. Even creative specifiers often do not consider lighting to be a main priority. So if the manager of a 200-bed hotel is told that it is possible to save $41,000 a year only by switching to energy-efficient lamps, that person might not believe it. The annual saving of $41,000 is based on an 80% occupancy rate and energy costs of $0.20/kWh, representing a significant saving on operational expenses and yielding additional revenue per available room (RevPAR). Hoteliers are correct in thinking that large installations such as heating and air conditioning systems are where big savings can be made. But, they are wide off the mark if they think they cannot deliver the same magnitude of savings through efficient use of lighting, TVs, and other inroom equipment. By carrying out a full analysis of the current consumption of lamps and other electrical equipment, room-by-room and floor-by-floor, it is possible to sketch an accurate picture of where savings can be made, as well as which products can best help realize them. Looking ahead, it is undoubtedly one of the most pressing tasks to create more awareness and communicate to those in a position of influence that more attention should be paid to this matter. It is not just in hotels where tourists rack up their carbon footprint by leaving the lights on. Lighting at airports plays a crucial role in passenger and staff safety, as well as making it easier for those arriving and departing to navigate their way through terminals. However, the need for ubiquitous lighting is compounded by the fact that airports often have high ceilings, and

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are lit 24 hours a day. Issues of accessibility can mean that changing a lamp means closing off an area and arranging special access equipment. Airports also have dedicated areas such as check-in, baggage reclaim, and, of course, perimeter areas where appropriate lighting facilitates a seamless transition though the airport and to/from car parks and drop off areas. It is for these reasons that major international airports such as Amsterdam, Munich, Paris (Roissy), and Barcelona are now turning to energy-saving, highperformance lighting solutions. Munich airport, as an example, has replaced its old luminaries to achieve the same lighting level while now generating savings of $400,000–550,000 per year.

CONCLUSION Green initiatives in the hospitality sector are developing into a core business strategy. Hotel guests that are keen to sleep with a clear conscience will increasingly seek out accommodation that enables them to (at least partly) neutralize their carbon emissions. The good news is that technological solutions to support this quest are readily available, and EU legislation is coming into force in support. Solid-state lighting or LED technology is one such response, offering high-quality, low-maintenance and environmentally friendly lighting with a low total cost of ownership. However, this needs to be supported by greater awareness of the benefits of adopting these solutions. The hospitality sector as a whole needs to seize the growing demand for carbon neutral experiences by adopting such alternatives and making sure guests know about them. Philips is leading the way in providing solutions to support the hospitality sector in achieving its goals, with a dedicated business unit and a clear focus on helping reduce emissions and lower operating costs. Especially in light of the large number of possibilities with LEDs, this is an area where great strides forward can be made in the coming years.

PART III DESTINATIONS, TOURISTS, AND NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS: ISSUES AND ACTIONS

Chapter 10

TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE Public and Private Sector Responses in New Zealand Douglas G. Pearce and Christian Schott Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Abridgement: While the need to respond to the wide-ranging challenges posed by climate change has been widely emphasized, there is still a relative lack of attention being given to the type, scale, and nature of responses that are taking place in different economic sectors and parts of the world. This chapter provides a review of the tourism-related responses to the implications of climate change in the context of New Zealand. This is a country where tourism is a very important sector of the economy that depends heavily on the credibility of its green and unspoilt destination image. However, due to its relative isolation in the South Pacific, New Zealand requires most international tourists to travel long distances, which results in considerable greenhouse gas emissions. The chapter outlines the private and public sectors’ responses to these challenges with particular attention to their collaboration. Keywords: New Zealand; tourism public sector; tourism private sector; mitigation; tourism strategy

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 165–186 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003013

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INTRODUCTION Over the past decade international research has highlighted the important, complex, and reciprocal relationships between tourism and climatic change. This research has drawn attention to both the impact which tourism may have on climate change and the consequences of a changing climate on the tourism industry. In response to the climate change related issues which have been identified, policymakers, operators, and tourists have been called on to adopt a range of mitigation measures (Becken and Hay 2007; Peeters 2007b). However, relatively little work has yet been done in examining actual responses to such calls. This chapter seeks to contribute to reducing this gap by considering responses taken by the tourism public and private sectors in New Zealand. In particular, attention is given to the nature and scope of those responses and to the public–private sector cooperation involved. New Zealand provides an appropriate focus for such a study given the challenges faced by the country. Tourism in New Zealand is a significant sector of the economy, one that depends heavily on the image and reality of a clean, green environment but also one where the patterns of demand are such that international travel to and from New Zealand generates high levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from long-haul air travel. To set the public and private sector responses in context, the chapter begins by outlining the basic characteristics of tourism in New Zealand, the country’s GHG emissions profile, and the expected impacts of climate change. Tourism in New Zealand Over the past three decades tourism has developed into a significant sector of the New Zealand economy. In the year ended March 2009 tourism expenditure amounted to US$15.8 billion (NZ$21.7 billion) of which $8.7 billion was generated by domestic and $7.1 billion by international tourists. The expenditure on inbound international tourism represented 16.4% of total export earnings. Tourism’s contribution (direct and indirect) to gross domestic product was 9.1%, and the sector directly and indirectly supported almost 10% of fulltime equivalent jobs in the country’s workforce (Statistics New Zealand 2009). The five leading markets for New Zealand’s 2.4 million international tourists are Australia (41%), the United Kingdom (11%), the United States of America (8%), China (5%), and Japan (4%) (Ministry of Tourism 2009a). These figures illustrate effectively that New Zealand depends heavily on long-haul markets with 99% of all arrivals being by air, according to Ministry of Tourism (2009c) statistics. Even travel from

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New Zealand’s nearest major market, Australia, involves at minimum a three hour flight. Significant numbers of New Zealanders also travel overseas. Almost two million trips abroad were made by the country’s four million residents in the year ended June 2008 (Reid and Pearce 2008). Virtually all outbound travel is also by air, with almost half of all departures to Australia, followed by Fiji (4.8%), the United Kingdom (4.6%), and the United States of America (4.6%) (Ministry of Tourism 2009b). Domestic travel nevertheless remains significant. Most domestic travel occurs by car within the tourist’s home region but lower airfares have also led to an increase in travel by plane. Travel by international tourists within New Zealand is often characterized by a high level of touring (Figure 1), with international tourists undertaking sightseeing tours of both the North and South Islands (Forer 2005). This contrasts with the pattern of single-destination holidays commonly associated with sun-sand-sea tourism that is prominent in many of the world’s key tourist destinations. While tourists come to New Zealand for a variety of reasons, major attractions are the country’s rich and varied natural scenery and associated opportunities to engage in a wide range of nature-based and adventure activities. Half of all international tourists, for instance, visit a national park during the course of their stay. Additionally, the recent growth in international tourist arrivals (1.4 million in 1998; 2.4 million in 2009) has been strongly supported by the award-winning 100% Pure New Zealand marketing campaign by Tourism New Zealand, which promotes a green and unspoilt image of the country. As a result, many tourists to New Zealand have high expectations in terms of the clean green image promoted by the country and of the activities that they engage in. New Zealand’s GHG Emissions and Expected Climate Change Impacts New Zealand’s obligation under the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce the country’s average net emissions of GHGs to 1990 levels over the period 2008–12 (Ministry for the Environment 2009a). Obligations beyond 2012 are not clear at the time of writing. However, as illustrated in Figure 2, total emissions have increased steadily since 1990. The agricultural sector contributes about half of all New Zealand’s GHG emissions (predominantly methane) and the energy sector contributes 43%. The largest increase in emissions (mostly carbon dioxide (CO2)) relative to 1990 was generated by the energy sector. The tourism sector (which includes transport within New Zealand) is estimated to generate about 6% of all New Zealand’s GHG emissions (NZTS2015 2007), and transport (primarily road transport)

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Figure 1. Road Flows by International Tourists in 2005 Source: Ministry of Tourism (2007)

accounts for 45% of this sector’s total emissions (Ministry for the Environment 2007a). However, emissions from international air travel are excluded from this figure while travel to and from New Zealand is estimated to account for 90% of all CO2 emissions generated by international tourists (NZTS2015 2007). Becken (2002) calculated that on average tourists arriving by air into New Zealand traveled 12,915 km and that tourists from the United Kingdom generated 2.4 tons of CO2 per tourist one way (this has recently been revised to 3.7 tons of CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) GHG by Landcare Research who incorporated a radiative forcing multiplier). In the same context, Smith and Rodger (2009) note that in 2005 total CO2-e emissions attributable to air

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Gg CO2 equivalent

80,000

75,000

70,000

65,000

60,000 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

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Figure 2. New Zealand’s Total GHG Emissions 1990–2007 Source: Ministry for the Environment (2009b)

travel to and from New Zealand by international tourists was 7,893 Gg (or kilo tons) while outbound New Zealand tourists, including return travel, generated 3,863 Gg. The authors stress that CO2-e values are strongly driven by tourist origin (or destination) rather than tourist numbers. In 2005, for example, Australians constituted 37% of total arrivals but generated only 13% of CO2-e emissions. Conversely, Europeans made up 18% of all arrivals but accounted for 43% of CO2-e emissions attributable to international air arrivals. Smith and Rodger also note (2009:3444) ‘‘the contribution of international air travel to New Zealand’s GHG emissions is y considerably larger than the world average’’ (approximately 10% compared to world averages estimated to range from 3.5% to 6.8%). Significant levels of energy use and emissions also result from domestic travel, accommodation, and activities within the country, though these vary by segment and sector (Becken and Simmons 2002; Becken et al 2001, 2003). The expected environmental changes triggered by climate change have recently been assessed by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (in Ministry for the Environment 2008). The changes that scientists are ‘‘very confident’’ will occur in New Zealand are: increases in mean temperatures; fewer frosts and more high temperature episodes; increase in sea levels of 18–59 cm on average between 1990 and 2100; and increase in ocean temperatures similar to increases in air temperature. And scientists are ‘‘confident’’ for the following to also occur: heavier and more frequent

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extreme rainfalls especially where mean rainfall increases are predicted; shortened duration of seasonal snow; and continuing longterm reduction in ice volume and glacier length.

NEW ZEALAND’S RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE Given the pervasive nature of climate change issues and the structure of tourism in New Zealand, it is not surprising that responses to these issues can be viewed from a variety of perspectives and at different scales and that an array of initiatives and actions have been introduced. These initiatives include specific climate change legislation, broader tourism strategies, and specific measures taken by tourism businesses. While a number of adaptation initiatives are taking place around the country (particularly dealing with water resource management, flood water management, and coastal erosion), there is little evidence of concerted adaptation action in the context of tourism. For tourism, the focus of both the public and private sectors appears to be solidly on mitigation rather than adaptation. This is likely to be a result of the statement that ‘‘many indications are that New Zealand is going to be less affected than many other countries by the physical impacts of climate change’’ (Ministry of Tourism 2008:18). The public sector’s overall approach to climate change adaptation overwhelmingly takes the form of information provision and education of the New Zealand public and local government about climate change and its likely impacts, with the advice to prepare for these challenges. While the public sector’s attention to adaptation is increasing, for example in the form of more detailed information about likely impacts and related adaptation advice for the agricultural and forestry sectors, tourism is neglected in this context. The only noteworthy reference to climate change adaptation for the tourism sector is in the 2008 New Zealand Tourism and Climate Change Plan (Ministry of Tourism 2008), which states a need to identify adaptation measures as one of the eight focus points outlined. When the plan expands on this, there is a lack of specific information and of suggestions for action. Instead, the plan merely emphasizes the need to identify adaptation issues, options, timings, and costs. This lack of concerted adaptation action is counter to the recommendation by Stern (2007) that adaptation policy is crucial in dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change and that governments play an important role in providing a policy framework to guide effective

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adaptation. However, Stern also recognizes that adaptation is underemphasized in many countries. A few possible explanations for this observation present themselves. The first is the above-mentioned expectation that the physical climate change impact on New Zealand will not be severe, particularly in comparison with many other countries, leading to the conclusion that adaptation is not of grave concern to the tourism industry. Second, it is perceivable that the New Zealand government does not want to urge tourism operators to allocate their limited financial resources to something that is not yet fully understood (for example in terms of what needs to be adapted and how). Or, third, there may be reluctance to invest in something that does not have the same customer-focused image benefits that mitigation is expected to provide, and could at worst project a negative image to international markets by acknowledging that New Zealand tourism will be impacted significantly enough by climate change to warrant adaptation measures. In any case, adaptation does not feature prominently as a response. As a result this chapter will now focus on reviewing New Zealand’s mitigation responses. National-Scale Responses to Climate Change Under the Labour-led coalition (1999–2008) the government recognized climate change as a longterm strategic issue for the country and, in response, initiated a series of whole-of-government programs. While these programs were driven by a concern for the direct environmental impacts that climate change could have on New Zealand, there was also recognition of the wideranging indirect implications if no action was taken, ‘‘New Zealanders rely on our clean green brand to obtain premium prices for primary exports and our tourism—our two largest sources of earnings. That brand is at risk from trade barriers and political consequences if we fail to take action’’ (Ministry for the Environment 2007b). However, the National-led coalition, which came into power in November 2008, has not given the same priority to climate change issues and indeed has recently revised relevant pieces of legislation. These changes highlight the importance of politics to policy responses. Given the ongoing nature of these changes, the emphasis in this chapter is on outlining the situation up to 2009. Under Labour the government devised a number of strategies, initiatives, and policies aimed at mitigating GHG emissions. The government’s vision of a low-emission energy system was set out in the New Zealand Energy Strategy (Ministry of Economic Development 2007) and accompanied by an action plan supporting the energy efficiency, energy conservation, and

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renewable energy objectives set out in the New Zealand Energy Strategy. Both of these documents are being reviewed and updated by the Nationalled government at the time of writing. Irrespective of different political agendas, both of New Zealand’s major parties (Labour and the National Party) have identified a need for an instrument that has the ability to make a noticeable impact on net GHG emissions and incorporates most sectors of its economy. As its central mitigation instrument the Labour-led government opted for an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) under the Climate Change Response Amendment Act 2008, which came into force on September 26 2008. The act introduced a price on GHG emissions, thus providing an incentive for New Zealanders and New Zealand businesses to reduce emissions and enhance forest sinks. Under the scheme emission units could be traded within New Zealand and internationally. The different sectors, such as forestry, agriculture, and liquid fossil fuels, were to be introduced gradually into the ETS over a period of five years through to 2013. The ETS covers all liquid fossil fuels (petrol, diesel, aviation gasoline, jet kerosene, light fuel oil, and heavy fuel oil) used in New Zealand, but importantly for tourism, excludes emissions produced by international aviation and marine transport; as consistent with the Kyoto Protocol. Under the scheme small- and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), which constitute the majority of tourism businesses in New Zealand, will not be required to trade emission units as they will not be directly involved in the ETS. However, SMEs will be impacted by the indirect effect of the ETS as the costs of emissions are passed through the economy, such as increases in fuel and electricity prices. In a submission to a select committee in February 2008, the Tourism Industry Association of New Zealand (TIANZ 2008b) expressed a number of concerns about the Labour-designed ETS outlined above. These concerns included the design of the ETS as well as the implications of introducing such a scheme. Specifically, the following points were raised: there was a lack of consultation and identification of the longterm impacts of emissions trading for industries; concerns over the impact of associated energy price increases on tourism SMEs as well as larger businesses and the fact that New Zealand businesses will experience a competitive disadvantage relative to other destinations that are not subject to such schemes; concern about the fact that tourism becomes subject to the implementation of the ETS several years earlier than other sectors such as agriculture (included in 2013); the expectation that the ETS might create a financial disincentive for SMEs to move toward carbon neutral certification; and a perceived lack of quantification of pledged support to help SMEs adjust to the new scheme.

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Since the National-led coalition took office in late 2008 a number of climate change related initiatives and policies that were passed under Labour have been reviewed and/or amended. This is largely due to the National Party’s policy direction that appears to support a more ‘‘balanced’’ approach to addressing the challenges of climate change. In other words, the new government pursues a line in which concern for the natural environment is on par with (or some would argue subordinate to) economic growth. The amendments made to the ETS include later entry dates for various sectors (agriculture enters the scheme in 2015 rather than in 2013 as proposed by Labour), increased financial support for trade-exposed emission intensive industries and agriculture (thresholds for financial support based on intensity and not absolute levels), and the phaseout of these support schemes has been reduced from an 8% decrease per annum to a mere 1.3% decrease in financial support per annum. The National-led coalition believed that longer transitional and support periods were needed in response to the economic recession. Critics of the amended ETS lament that major polluters will receive financial support at the expense of New Zealand taxpayers and that in particular the agricultural sector is receiving unfair protection and financial support. At the time of writing it does not appear as if the tourism sector was to receive any direct support under the amended scheme. Judging from the actions by the new government there is then evidence to suggest that the inherent links between the economy and the environment as well as the economic rationale for committed mitigation and adaptation action, as identified in the Stern review (2007), are not fully recognized by the National-Party-led coalition. For further details about the ETS and revisions to key climate change documents since the time of writing visit http://www.climatechange.govt.nz. National Strategies and the Tourism and Climate Change Plan Over the last decade, consecutive national tourism strategies have placed an increasing emphasis on the sustainable development of tourism and the country as a whole. The New Zealand Tourism Strategy (NZTS) 2010, produced jointly by government agencies and the tourism sector in 2001, emphasized the need to secure and conserve a longterm future. In addition to economic, social, and cultural dimensions, the strategy recognized the need to pay increasing attention to environmental sustainability because domestic and international tourist numbers continue to grow and ‘‘the natural environment is fundamental to the New Zealand brand and many tourism products’’ (NZTS 2001:27). While progress was seen in such areas as

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implementation of the Green Globe proposed practices, the strategy also acknowledged that the country might struggle to meet its commitments under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol regarding CO2 emissions. The strategy aimed ‘‘to have all operators and organizations recognizing the value of the natural environment and actively protecting, supporting and promoting its sustainability as part of what they do’’ (NZTS 2001:30). To this end, the first of the key recommendations was that the relevant government agencies and the TIANZ ‘‘on behalf of private sector operators, develop and promote resource use efficiency initiatives and environmental management systems to achieve agreed international benchmarks (including carbon neutrality) by 2010’’ (NZTS 2001:30). The 2001 document was updated and superseded in 2007 by the launch of the New Zealand Tourism Strategy 2015 (NZTS 2007), again a joint public– private sector undertaking. The overall vision of the new strategy is that ‘‘in 2015, tourism is valued as the leading contributor to a sustainable New Zealand economy’’ (NZTS 2007:6). Four major outcomes were identified, the third being: ‘‘The tourism sector takes a leading role in protecting and enhancing the environment’’. The strategy advocates ‘‘a whole-of-New Zealand approach’’ making the case that:

A sustainable tourism sector cannot be achieved in isolation. The tourism sector is so intimately woven into New Zealand’s economy and across New Zealand’s communities that we need a nationwide commitment to sustainability. This requires all areas of government and all economic sectors to play their part and to acknowledge the connections that exist between us y This needs to encompass all the work being done across government to address climate change including the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. A clear national framework, articulating a national direction and national priorities, will provide certainty and context for the tourism sector (NZTS 2007:11).

Climate change is thus considered in the wider context of environmental sustainability and there is more specific mention of it in the 2015 strategy than in the preceding document. However, while the need to be environmentally sustainable is broadly made, the challenge regarding climate change is presented not so much in terms of directly reducing any

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adverse impacts tourism might have on the climate but more in terms of how the perception of this issue would affect tourist arrivals (NZTS 2007): International concern about climate change is increasing, particularly in our key markets in the United Kingdom and Europe. This may start to affect visitor arrivals in New Zealand y We need to respond to our visitors’ concerns and provide them with options for reducing and mitigating their carbon emissions. We must also demonstrate best-practice management within New Zealand (p. 12). Consequently, the strategy draws attention to the need to reduce carbon emissions as well as to improve the general environmental performance of tourism businesses. In terms of reducing carbon emissions it identifies the need to ‘‘work with Air New Zealand and other airlines to provide tourists with options to minimize and mitigate the carbon emissions they generate travelling to and within New Zealand’’ (NZTS 2007:44). Options listed to reduce tourists transport use within the country include: promoting holidays based in just one region (to discourage GHG emissions-intensive circuit travel, Figure 1); encouraging the use of lower impact forms of transport (e.g., coaches instead of planes) and public transport, biking or walking; providing more fuel-efficient transport fleets; and the introduction of carbon offsetting mechanisms. To meet the expectations created by the 100% Pure New Zealand campaign, the 2015 strategy, as with the previous one, emphasizes the need for a national approach to addressing environmental issues. Such an approach will involve a wide range of stakeholders, including tourism operators and tourism sector associations and such government agencies as the Ministry for the Environment, Department of Conservation, Ministry of Transport, and Local Government New Zealand. Specific actions are directed at international tourists and tourism operators. The key actions relating to tourists are to understand their environmental aspirations and how they view New Zealand’s environmental policy, to incorporate this information in marketing activities and product development, and to help consumers make informed choices aligned with environmental values, for example through increased awareness of environmental accreditation schemes. No direct mention of domestic tourists is made here, although measures aimed at international tourists would largely also apply to New Zealand holidaymakers. Other parts of the strategy stress the need to meet the

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expectations of domestic tourists and ensure travel within the country is affordable. Retaining more New Zealand holidaymakers within the country would not only bring economic benefits but also reduce emissions associated with outbound air travel. However, as noted above, domestic travel also produces significant levels of GHG emissions (Becken and Simmons 2002; Becken et al 2001, 2003), and as a result more explicit attention to addressing this is needed. With regard to operators, carbon emission reduction initiatives focus on increasing the energy efficiency of tourism transport operations, for example, by encouraging the use of biofuels, adopting best-practice standards for fuel-efficient vehicles, and developing options to offset carbon emissions. Other actions to improve the energy efficiency, energy conservation, and the use of renewable energy throughout the sector are encouraged through working with the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, using the highest-possible energy-efficient building standards and adopting energy management and new technologies. Steps to reduce and manage waste, by both tourists and operators, are also outlined in the 2015 strategy. Improving New Zealand’s environmental performance was also one of the six priorities identified in the Tourism Industry Election Manifesto released by the TIANZ in the lead up to the November 2008 general elections. This document outlines how the national tourism sector organization saw the key priorities for New Zealand tourism over the next election term and what actions it seeks from Government. While recognizing that the industry must take responsibility in running its businesses in a more sustainable manner and provide environmentally friendly products, the manifesto also asserted: y the tourism industry cannot deliver on New Zealand’s 100% Pure brand promise on its own. The government must ensure that a vision and funding are available to enable key agencies such as the Ministry for the Environment and Department of Conservation to work with local government and the tourism industry. The focus should be on practical and visionary initiatives to protect and enhance New Zealand’s environment (TIANZ 2008a:12). A more specific Tourism and Climate Change Plan was developed by a working group of people from the tourism industry and relevant government agencies in late 2008 (Ministry of Tourism 2008). The plan’s two aims are for the New Zealand tourism sector (a) to attain a sustainable growth path and

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remain competitive internationally in light of climate change risks, and (b) to actively and credibly contribute to reducing the severity of climate change. In the plan a need was identified to treat climate change as part of the overall strategy for tourism rather than as a stand-alone issue. Hence, the following responses were formulated into four interlinked sections: maintain effective messaging and positioning in key markets; enable and ensure a well judged response by tourism businesses; respond effectively to concerns about GHG emissions generated by air travel; and establish a forward research agenda. Particular weight is given to the first of these, addressing consumer concerns and attitudes, especially in light of the 100% Pure New Zealand brand strategy. This plan further emphasizes that the public sector’s concern is more strongly focused on consumer attitudes toward how New Zealand addresses the challenges of climate change, than dealing with the direct impacts of climate change on the natural environment. Tourism Public Sector and Collaborative Responses The need for sound environmental practices is thus well-established and acknowledged in New Zealand and more specific issues associated with tourism and climate change are being explicitly recognized by both the public and private sectors. The national tourism strategies provide a good framework within which these matters can be addressed. The question now is to what extent are these policies being implemented and to what extent have the initiatives outlined been adopted? Clearly there is much more work to be done and continuous effort will be required over the longterm to ensure the sustainability of the industry, although a variety of steps have already been undertaken or are currently being put in place, at times in collaboration with the tourism industry. The first set of responses relates to initiatives by the public sector to improve environmental management among tourism businesses. To encourage the adoption of best practice, the Ministry for the Environment and the Ministry of Tourism have produced a set of sustainability guides directed at different groups of operators, for example, fresh water and marine activities, tourist attractions, and transport operators, which was distributed by TIANZ. These good practice guides vary in emphasis from one sector to another and take a broad-based approach to sustainability. However, they do incorporate specific measures that will assist in mitigating tourism’s impacts on the environment through the reduction of carbon emissions and increased energy and fuel efficiency. Transport operators, for example, are encouraged to develop, adopt, and review a sustainability

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policy for their business, to monitor fuel and energy consumption, and to look for opportunities to optimize travel routes to reduce mileage, fuel use, and vehicle maintenance needs. Marine operators are advised to select more efficient four stroke outboard motors, to tune engines regularly and to regulate cruising speeds. Further ways of improving energy efficiency are being explored through the Tourism Energy Efficiency Programme, part of the national Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy 2007. A pilot program was launched in mid-2008 as a partnership between TIANZ and the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority. In the first phase detailed energy audits of 10 accommodation businesses and three transport operators were undertaken to develop energy audit models and to provide advice and mentoring to help identify changes that could be made. The aim of the pilot was to provide practical and in-depth information that can be shared with the industry and fed into accreditation schemes (Qualmark Enviro, see more detail below) and the Sustainable Tourism Adviser in Regions program. Initial results reported savings of at least 20% through such basic measures as replacing inefficient lamps, reducing shower flow rates, installing time switches on showers and heaters, insulation, and turning off computers (Bradshaw and Wilkinson 2008). Due to the success of the pilot, the Tourism Energy Efficiency Programme was extended into a national program in May 2009. Other public–private sector partnerships include the earlier mentioned Sustainable Tourism Adviser in Regions Program, which evolved from the regionally based Sustainable Tourism Charter and funds experts to provide one-to-one sustainability advice (including but not focused on energy efficiency) to businesses. Additionally, the integration of a larger proportion of environmental criteria in the national tourism quality assurance scheme (Qualmark) and the creation of a separate Qualmark (Enviro) award are noteworthy examples. Qualmark is a public–private sector partnership between Tourism New Zealand and the New Zealand Automobile Association. It is New Zealand’s only official tourism quality assurance scheme. Qualmark is recognized by the NZTS2015 (2007) as an important instrument in enhancing New Zealand’s reputation as a world class destination, which is one of the four strategy goals. The role of the recently-launched Qualmark Enviro label is also recognized as important in this context and creates a strong link to another of the four strategy goals–– the tourism sector’s role in protecting and enhancing the environment. The purpose of the Qualmark scheme is to provide quality assurance to international and domestic tourists by assigning a one-to-five star rating to accommodation or ‘‘endorsing’’ tourist activities, services, or transport.

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While Qualmark initially introduced an environmental component in 2002, this only applied to some categories and accounted for about 2% of Qualmark criteria in the case of the accommodation sector. In 2008 the environmental component was augmented to represent 5% (accommodation categories) or 8% (tourist activities, services, and transport) of the Qualmark criteria. Even though the environmental categories were not developed to specifically address climate change, but to foster a more environmentally sustainable tourism industry, one of the five categories assesses energy (including liquid fossil fuels) and another assesses waste management, both of which are relevant to GHG emissions. Meeting the base line on all criteria, including the environmental criteria, is a requirement for achieving a star rating or endorsement. In addition, the new Qualmark Enviro program and label has been developed to reward environmental high performers by assigning Qualmark Enviro-Bronze, Enviro-Silver, or Enviro-Gold to a business depending on the extent of environmental performance. The Qualmark Enviro label is designed to be displayed alongside the general quality assurance label (Qualmark). Initiatives to promote businesses that achieved Qualmark Enviro accreditation include being listed at the top of the accommodation directory hosted on the Tourism New Zealand website (http://www.newzealand.com/travel). It is understood that the Qualmark Enviro ecolabels are not intended to compete with the most established tourism ecolabel in New Zealand, Green Globe, but rather for the two labels to complement each other. Green Globe is a for-profit ecolabel and its point of difference in relation to Qualmark Enviro is based around its exclusive focus on sustainable tourism accreditation, its emphasis on environmental management, and its global representation in 52 countries (Green Globe NZ 2008). While Green Globe has a comparatively strong presence in New Zealand, one of its key challenges is consumer awareness, which was found to be small (on average 8%) across all tourist markets with a pronounced lack of awareness by domestic tourists (Schott 2006). As such, Qualmark Enviro may be useful in generating greater domestic awareness of environmentally minded accreditation labels per se and ultimately in creating the opportunity for both schemes to benefit from those businesses that display both labels (thus indirectly raising awareness of the other scheme). Tourism Private Sector Responses No comprehensive and systematic data are available about the extent to which tourism businesses throughout New Zealand have adopted

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environmental management practices or are attempting to mitigate their GHG emissions. However, case study material and other research do provide some indication of what is being done and why, even if the extent of these practices has not been fully established. For instance, as an attempt to raise awareness of these issues a panel discussion on sustainability was held as part of TIANZ’s 2008 annual conference. Additionally, the examples presented below shed some light on both the actions by some businesses and the issues facing them. Kea Campers (http://nz.keacampers.com/), one of the country’s leading campervan operators, has an explicit responsible tourism policy and has won multiple industry awards. The company operates a fleet of dieselpowered vehicles that meet EURO4 emission standards and are replaced regularly. Their campervans are manufactured in New Zealand, incorporate lightweight timber from renewable plantations, and have solar panels. While carbon offsets have been explored by Kea, the scope and timescale considerations of buying sufficient credits to achieve carbon neutrality do not appear practical to the company, and they have found evidence of mistrust about these programs among their clients. No one solution is thought to exist for mitigating environmental problems. Instead Kea is taking a series of small initiatives in the shape of a policy of ongoing improvement, which includes keeping things simple, involving staff, surveying clients, and being a fast adopter of new technology. Editor’s note: for a more detailed case study of KEA Campers, see Chapter 8. Adventure South (http://www.advsouth.co.nz/) is a small cycle tour operator that has a long record of environmental certification, being the first New Zealand company to achieve full Green Globe certification in 2003 and the first New Zealand company to receive CarboNZero certification (a New Zealand program that verifies carbon neutrality) in 2007. Environmental initiatives taken include driver training to improve fuel efficiency, an expanded and modified fleet to allow vehicle selection fit for purpose, and to eliminate the need for trailers. The director of this SME indicates that the company’s environmental policy and commitment were driven by social conscience and not as a marketing strategy, however, he adds that the company was keen to maximize any marketing advantage, but none was yet evident. He also pointed out that the cost of accreditation was expensive, asserting that his clients expected the operator to provide their environmental engagement at no added premium. The Youth Hostel Association’s Wellington hostel (http://www.yha. co.nz/Hostels/North+Island+Hostels/Wellington/) is another example of a committed grassroots initiative. In 10 years the city hostel has more than

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doubled in size, and in 2006 recorded an average occupancy of 78%. Handin-hand with this expansion has been a concerted drive to improve the hostel’s energy efficiency, which has resulted in both cost savings and improved customer satisfaction according to the hostel manager. Key components in the initiative to conserve energy and minimize GHG emissions were started in the 1990s: installation of an atmospheric heatexchange system to assist in water heating, an automated space heating system which saves energy by providing even, radiant heating when required, and the installation of an ECO GFX which transfers the heat from warm waste water into the incoming cold water to reduce the need for prolonged water heating. Along with other YHA hostels nationwide the Wellington hostel is also a supporter and participant of the Green Footprint Project, which is an annual tree planting initiative of trees purchased by its guests over the duration of a year. Editor’s note: for a more detailed case study of Wellington City’s hostel association, see Chapter 7. Recently completed research on environmental management among tourism operators in the Nelson Tasman region of New Zealand’s South Island provides a broader picture of such practices among tourism SMEs. Grubb (2007) surveyed 61 businesses (30 accommodation and 31 activities) and found almost all accommodation providers and just over half of the activity operators had adopted some form of energy consumption minimization measure, especially energy-efficient lighting and appliances. About two-thirds of each group had also taken steps to reduce vehicle emissions, for example, through better tuning and more efficient use of their vehicles. The four most effective environmental practices identified by the respondents were those relating to waste management, energy use minimization, contributions to conservation and environment, and interpretation. Lower bills were found to be the most significant factor influencing the adoption of energy-saving measures. Energy-saving measures topped the list of the practices that SMEs wanted to adopt more widely. Grubb (2007) found the major barrier to doing this was the capital cost of installing equipment for solar power and heating. In a more general study of 43 small accommodation providers, Hall (2007) reports that climate change was found to be only a minor consideration in terms of daily management and planning although potentially significant over the longer term. These businesses were also opposed to directly bearing any compliance costs associated with government initiated climate change adaptation or mitigation schemes. While the responses of SMEs are important (they are estimated to account for more than 85% of tourism businesses in New Zealand), the actions of the larger businesses are perhaps even more crucial, especially those in the transport

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sector given that this is where the largest proportion of carbon emissions are generated (Becken and Simmons 2002; NZTS2015 2007). Significant steps are also being taken in this field. InterCity, which operates a nationwide coach network, has committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2010 (TIANZ 2008a). It already meets EURO3 standards relating to both fuel efficiency and carbon emissions and builds all its vehicles in New Zealand to meet its standards. However, it is the airline industry whose actions are particularly crucial, given the country’s dependence on long-haul air travel. Air New Zealand (http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/about-us/), the national carrier which is majority-owned by the government, has taken a series of initiatives to reduce carbon emissions and improve its environmental performance; its stated goal is to become the world’s most environmentally sustainable airline. Air New Zealand seeks to reduce its CO2 emissions by more than 100,000 tons within five years and in June 2008 reported it was on track to achieving this, having delivered 91,000 tons in reduced emissions within the first three years of its fuel-saving program. Initiatives taken by Air New Zealand include the ongoing replacement of its fleet with more fuelefficient aircraft, such as replacing 747s with 787-9 jets, which are said to use 20% less fuel than other similar aircraft. Air New Zealand was also the launch-customer for the aerodynamic enhancement package on its fleet of Boeing 777-200ER aircraft as well as being an early adopter of new blended winglets, which are expected to reduce CO2 emissions by 18,400 tons annually for the company’s five Boeing 767-300ER aircraft. The company has also taken a number of operational measures, such as reducing weight on aircraft (simple steps such as digitalizing flight manuals), more accurate fuel loadings, optimizing flight speeds, improved descent profiles, and new flight and navigational technologies to reduce fuel use. A test flight from Auckland to San Francisco in September 2008 using GPS technology for example saved 1200 gallons of jet fuel and emitted 12 tons CO2 less. Air New Zealand is also actively exploring options for alternative fuels so that by 2013 biofuels make up 10% of the airline’s annual needs. A successful 12-hour test flight from Auckland to Los Angeles, which used a mix of 50% second generation biofuel (Jatropha oil) and 50% traditional Jet A1, took place in December 2008. The postflight report found that the biofuel’s properties offer performance improvements over Jet A1 including a 1.2% saving in fuel, which would result in a 4.5 tons reduction in CO2 emissions on a 12-hour flight. Other initiatives include the introduction of a facility in 2008 for domestic and international tourists to purchase carbon credits to offset their travel emissions; the offsets are used to purchase wind farm credits. And already in 2005, the company launched the

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Air New Zealand Environmental Charitable Trust, created for the ‘‘protection, promotion and preservation of the natural environment, flora and fauna of New Zealand’’ (Air New Zealand 2008). The first phase is a 100-acre native reforestation and pastoral tree planting project, to which Air New Zealand passengers are invited to donate money. Donations to the Trust are presented as a less costly alternative to purchasing carbon offsets. Climate Change Responses and the Future of New Zealand Tourism As this review has shown, the tourism sector in New Zealand is responding to issues of climate change in a variety of ways. Given the scale and nature of the challenge facing New Zealand and the relative recentness of most of the responses, it is too soon to judge whether the policies and measures outlined are successful, to evaluate the extent to which the measures recommended are being taken up, let alone assess the impact these policies and measures are having. This is especially the case with the National Party’s amended ETS legislation and the Tourism and Climate Change Plan. What is clear is that with the exception of some of the air transport measures, the responses from the tourism sector have generally been couched in broader terms of sustainability and the need to be (and be seen to be) environmentally responsible, rather than as a reaction to climate change per se. This is evident in the national tourism strategy, in the Green Globe and Qualmark Enviro ecolabels, and in the measures taken to educate and inform operators as well as in the individual actions taken by tourism businesses. These responses appear to be motivated by a mix of genuine environmental concern, increasing awareness that the ethical and environmental concerns of consumer markets are shifting, and that these shifts may have an economic impact on the tourism sector as in some instances savings may be achieved by adopting environmentally friendly practices. This sustainability focused approach is based on the notion that both the impacts triggered by tourism as well as the factors and processes affecting tourism are of an interrelated nature. It also reflects a broader concern for the credibility of New Zealand’s clean, green image, which is actively promoted by the 100% Pure New Zealand destination marketing campaign, and the recognition that tourism in New Zealand is heavily reliant on the country’s natural resources and features. While such a broad-based and integrated approach has its strengths and there is a need for all operators to play their part, there is also a risk that the central challenges associated with climate change, those resulting from emissions produced by international air travel, by both inbound and outbound tourists, are not being addressed

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sufficiently given their overall significance. Measures such as reducing energy consumption in the accommodation sector or improving fuel efficiencies in domestic transport will all contribute. However, as Smith and Rodger (2009) clearly illustrate, it is mitigating the effects of international air travel that is crucial and an area where effective solutions for reducing emissions are not readily found. They concluded from the analysis of carbon emission offsets for aviation-generated emissions that, ‘‘We have been unable to identify an offsetting option that is physically realistic, or politically realistic, within New Zealand’s geographic boundaries’’ and that ‘‘Carbon emissions from aviation are an international issue requiring an international solution’’ (p. 3446). The international dimension arises out of issues associated with taxing fuel for international travel and questions of taxing tourists in the market or at the destination. Moreover, international transport currently lies outside the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. While Air New Zealand has been proactive in exploring energy-saving measures and aviation issues are set out in the Tourism and Climate Change Plan, broader national climate change-related debates and initiatives largely concentrate on other sectors. New Zealand’s main initiative at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, for example, is expected to focus on reducing emissions from agriculture, which is by far the largest contributor to New Zealand’s GHG emissions. In terms of tourism, attention appears to be directed most immediately to possible shifts in environmental consumer attitudes and related travel preferences, as well as the effects this will have on the country’s industry (Ministry of Tourism 2008). According to Tourism New Zealand research on UK respondents (who had previously visited New Zealand) 20% stated that they try not to travel long distances by air because of the impact travel may have on the environment (Tourism New Zealand 2007). These findings indicate that the travel attitudes of consumers from the UK (New Zealand’s second largest market) are changing. A similar trend has previously been observed in the food miles’ initiative that saw UK supermarkets label products with the distance a product has traveled. A key issue in this debate is likely to be the overall GHG footprint of each tourist, which in the case of European tourists to New Zealand will remain sizeable even if aircrafts reduce their GHG emissions and tourists minimize their emissions during their stay in New Zealand. Changing attitudes may also be compounded by the increase in departure taxes (Air Passenger Duty) for flights from the UK, which are levied on flights between the UK and other countries, with the explanation that the taxes will reduce the GHG emissions generated by aviation by decreasing demand for flights (HM Revenue and Customs 2009).

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No mention of the intended use of the additional revenue could be found. The departure tax increased on November 1, 2009 to $89 (d55) for economy and $179 (d110) for higher classes on a flight from the UK to New Zealand and increases again from November 1, 2010 to $138 for economy and $276 for higher classes. It appears that this tax amount is for a one-way flight, which means that a return flight between the UK and New Zealand will cost substantially more as a result of this tax. Any attempt to assess the impact of changing attitudes and any new taxes is complicated by the effects of the global economic recession. In the year ended October 30, 2009, international arrivals to New Zealand dropped by 1%, or 24,400 fewer tourists, while 3.3% fewer trips abroad were made by New Zealand residents (Ministry of Tourism 2009b). However, it is worth noting that the pattern of change was far from uniform. Arrivals from the UK fell by 10.6%, those from South Korea by 37.9%, while arrivals from Australia rose by 9.7%. The overall decrease, and especially the decline in long-haul tourists, will, of course, result in reduced total GHG emissions from international air travel. Not surprisingly, this dimension has not been highlighted in industry reactions. Rather, the concern has been with the economic aspects of this decline. The national tourism marketing response to the recession has been a targeted campaign to boost travel from Australia, New Zealand’s nearest market, not because of the lower emissions such travel generates but because this was where the best opportunities were seen to lie in terms of available marketing dollars and the competitive advantages New Zealand has in the Australian market in recessionary times. A related development is the increasing marketing as well as public-sector sponsored research attention focusing on the Chinese tourist market, which has established itself as the fastest growing market over the last few years and is now New Zealand’s fourth largest source market. New Zealand can be reached from most Chinese cities by traveling about half the distance required to reach New Zealand from European cities, which renders the Chinese tourist market not only attractive in terms of the continuous growth in arrivals, but also in the context of GHG emissions produced by tourists traveling to New Zealand. This then provides a valuable opportunity for New Zealand to adapt to the indirect impacts of climate change by modifying the mix of tourist markets with greater investment in the Chinese and other Asian markets. Ultimately, more research on tourism in the context of climate change is needed to gain more insight into the relationships between tourism and climate change, with tourism as both vector and victim, to gain a better understanding about changing consumer attitudes to international air travel as well as new tourism opportunities for New Zealand in the face of a

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changing economic, political, and natural climate. It is also important to conduct research on the effectiveness and issues raised by different policy instruments, such as the ETS in New Zealand’s case.

CONCLUSION In summary, the public and private sectors in New Zealand have been active over the last few years in developing a more sustainable tourism industry, including efforts to address climate change issues and mitigate GHG emissions. Given the country’s dependence on long-haul travel, its clean and green positioning as a tourist destination, and with the forecasts of increasing severity of global climate change, it is likely that the challenges New Zealand faces will only intensify in coming years. As the reaction to the current economic recession has shown, there is no indication that the New Zealand tourism industry will move away from a growth strategy. The NZTS2015 (2007) forecasts 3.4 million international arrivals in 2015 compared to 2.4 million in 2008. Further, current and foreseeable technological advances do not appear to provide sufficient solutions, particularly in terms of mitigating air transport emissions, to ensure that growth will be environmentally sustainable and make a real contribution to addressing the implications of climate change.

Acknowledgments We would like to thank Erica Inkster and Ella Street for their assistance in gathering and compiling material for this chapter.

Chapter 11

AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM CARBON FOOTPRINT A Production-based Approach Larry Dwyer and Ray Spurr University of New South Wales, Australia

Peter Forsyth and Serajul Hoque Monash University, Australia

Abridgement: This chapter explores the issues in estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the tourism industry and related activities in Australia. A production-based approach is employed and its rationale is explained. The scope of tourism consists of the economic activities of tourism-characteristic and tourism-connected sectors as defined in the Australian Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). The GHG emissions have been estimated for 2003–04, the latest year for which detailed industry GHG emissions data are available in a form suitable for this type of estimate. Tourism’s GHG emissions are compared with other industries in the Australian economy. The policy implications of the results are discussed. It should be possible to adopt a broadly similar method for any destination with a TSA, enabling tourism stakeholders to play an informed role in assessing appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies for their destination. Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions; Tourism Satellite Account; production-based method; Australia; carbon footprint

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 187–202 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003014

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INTRODUCTION Countries worldwide have obligations to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), an international environmental treaty, with the goal of achieving ‘‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’’ (UNFCCC 2009). Kyoto imposes national caps on the emissions of Annex I (developed) countries. In order to meet the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, Annex I countries in particular are required to prepare policies and measures for the reduction of GHGs in their respective countries. Under Kyoto, industrialized countries have agreed to reduce their collective GHG emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990, with varying reductions agreed to by the signatories. Another round of negotiations took place in Copenhagen in December 2009. The Copenhagen Accord recognizes the scientific case for keeping temperature rises below 21C, but does not contain commitments for reduced emissions that would be necessary to achieve that aim. It is as yet too early to determine fully the results of this meeting but there appears to be a lack of political will globally to develop meaningful strategies to reduce carbon emissions from industrial activity. Most GHG emissions produced from within any given destination are included under Kyoto accounting rules. However, there are GHG emissions being produced by destination-based firms within the destination that are not included under the Kyoto rules. While the Kyoto Protocol includes emissions from international aviation in principle, in reality, this extends presently only to an obligation from parties to monitor these emissions. There are also GHG emissions that are produced in other countries as part of their production of goods and services, which are subsequently imported for consumption by tourists in a destination. Individual countries do not assume any responsibility under the Kyoto agreement for the carbon footprint from goods produced outside of their jurisdiction. Most tourism-related activities require energy directly in the form of fossil fuels or indirectly in the form of electricity often generated from petroleum, coal, or gas. This consumption leads to the emission of GHGs, mainly CO2. The tourism industry, alongside other sectors, is expected to play its role in reducing GHG emissions wherever possible. As the United Nations World Tourism Organization and United Nations Environment Program (UNWTO-UNEP) has recently stated, ‘‘The tourism sector has an

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important place in that (Kyoto) framework, given its global economic and social value, its role in sustainable development and its strong relationships with climate’’ (2008:13). Among the tourism-specific strategies emphasized by UNWTO are the mitigation of GHG emissions, the adaptation of tourism businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions, the application of existing and new technologies to improve energy efficiency, and securing financial resources to assist regions and countries in need. Tourism stakeholders are expected to play their role in the required strategy formulation and implementation to reduce tourism’s carbon footprint. For efficient resource allocation, policies to mitigate and to adapt to climate change need to be based on as much detailed information as possible regarding the emissions of GHG associated with tourism activity (Forsyth, Dwyer and Spurr 2007). It is common nowadays to speak of an industry’s carbon footprint (United Kingdom Carbon Trust 2010). A carbon footprint is essentially an accounting measure referring to the amount of GHG emissions (carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e)) associated with the production and consumption of goods and services at the level of an individual firm, industry, or an entire economy. Consistent with the management adage ‘‘what gets measured gets managed’’, if the tourism industry is to play its role alongside other industries in the quest to reduce GHG emissions, tourism’s carbon footprint must be estimated. Measurements of tourism’s carbon footprints can be developed at many levels: for individual tourists, individual operators, industry sectors, regions, entire destinations, and internationally. Tourism’s footprint has been estimated globally (UNWTO 2007a), as well as for particular destinations and by type of tourist. The measurement process is not a straightforward one. Various data challenges are involved and different approaches may be employed. This study uses the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) to measure tourism economic activity and links this activity with data on GHG emissions to enable the footprint to be constructed. The advantage of using a TSA to define the scope is that destination managers in different countries can follow an internationally recommended method (United Nations Statistics Division, Statistical Office of the European Communities, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Tourism Organization 2008). Even within a TSA-based approach different results are obtained according to whether a production-based or expenditure-based approach is used. While the former focuses on the supply side to estimate industry output and its associated GHG emissions, the latter estimates the footprint arising from the expenditures by

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non-Australian-based and domestic tourists on tourism in Australia (Forsyth, Hoque, Spurr et al 2008). This chapter will focus on the production-based approach to estimate a carbon footprint for the Australian tourism industry. It begins with a summary of some studies that have attempted to estimate the carbon emissions from tourism activities in various destinations, including an attempt by the UNWTO to estimate the emissions on a global scale. It then sets out to estimate the carbon emissions of tourism as defined by the destination TSA. The chapter will then compare this estimate with that of other Australian industries. It is argued that the production-based approach employed in this study can form the basis for estimating the carbon footprint of any tourism destination that has a TSA, and offers the opportunity of generating consistent and comparable estimates for other countries.

MEASURES OF TOURISM’S CARBON FOOTPRINT A report by the UNWTO (2007a) represents the first attempt to calculate direct emissions of CO2 from three main tourism subsectors––transportation, accommodation, and activities—as well as the contribution to radiative forcing (i.e., including all GHGs) for the year 2005. In that year all forms of transport generated the largest proportion of CO2 emissions (75%) from global tourism, with just under 40% of the total being caused by air transport alone. Aviation, in particular, is a relatively large generator of GHGs with high per tourist emissions, especially for long trips. Long-haul travel by air between the five UNWTO world tourism regions represents only 2.7% of all trips, but contributes 17% to global tourism-related emissions. In contrast, trips by coach and rail account for 34% of all trips, but contribute only 13% of all emissions. Apart from the transport sector, the UNWTO (2007a) study concluded that tourism is not a major direct producer of GHGs globally. Emissions from accommodation and activities were estimated to be substantially lower than transport emissions, but still form one-quarter of tourism-related emissions (Table 1). While indicative of tourism’s relative global carbon intensity, the UNWTO qualifies its findings. CO2 emissions do not capture the full GHG emissions from economic activity of tourism or any other industry. Moreover, the estimates relate to direct emissions only. Tourism is also an indirect producer of GHGs through its purchases of goods and services that use fossil fuels. A full accounting of tourism’s global carbon footprint would

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Table 1. Emissions from Global Tourism in 2005 (Including Same Day Tourists) Activity Type

CO2 (MT)

Percentage

Air transport Other transport Accommodation Other activities Total Total world (all industries) Share (%)

517 468 274 45 1,307 26,400 4.95

39.6 35.8 16.6 8.0 100.0

Source: Adapted and Reprinted with permission from UNWTO (2007a). MT: million metric tons.

require an estimation of both the direct and indirect carbon emissions. Carbon footprints are likely to vary greatly between destinations, reflecting climate, culture, energy sources, available technology, activities undertaken, and the country of origin of the tourists. Thus, each destination should be treated individually. Researchers have attempted to measure the CO2 emissions associated with individual destinations. Therefore, the estimates are available for New Zealand (Becken and Patterson 2006; Patterson and McDonald 2004), Wales (Jones and Munday 2007), and Canada (Jackson, Kotsovos and Morissette 2008). While valuable, each of these studies has its limitations. In particular, they focus only on some sectors of tourism. Little attempt has been made to define the scope of the industry in a comprehensive way. It must be emphasized that a comparison of tourism’s carbon footprint with other industries is not straightforward but depends on the economic activities that are included in the measurements. The simplest and most direct way to compare the carbon footprints is to estimate the direct production of GHG emissions from tourism output, using a national TSA, and then to link this up with estimates of GHG emissions by industry production. The TSA enables the estimation of the percentage of output from each industry that is tourism related. Tourism GHG emissions can then be estimated by applying this percentage to the output of each sector. The use of TSA to define the scope of the industry is the essence of what is called the production-based approach to measuring tourism’s carbon footprint. TSAs, which exist in over 70 destinations worldwide (Libreros, Massieu and Meis 2006), can be used to define the scope of tourism to estimate its output and hence its associated GHG emissions. A TSA provides

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macroeconomic aggregates that describe its size and the economic contribution, such as output, direct gross value added, and direct gross domestic product, consistent with similar aggregates for the total economy, and for other productive economic activities (Spurr 2006). The TSA documents the outputs and value added in the various sectors that comprise tourism. The activities of these sectors generate GHG emissions. If the relationship between industry production and GHG emissions is known, then it is possible to calculate the emissions that are due to tourism, as measured by the TSA.

A Production-Based Measure of Tourism Carbon Footprint The inclusions and exclusions of the production-based approach are shown in Table 2. In the Australian TSA, sectors of tourism characteristic are defined as those that would either cease to exist in their present form, or would be significantly affected if tourism were to cease. For an industry to be characteristic, at least 25% of its output must be consumed by tourists. Tourism-connected industries are those for which a tourism-related product is directly identifiable and where the products are consumed by tourists in volumes that are significant for them and/or for the producer (United Nations Statistics Division, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Tourism Organization 2008). In the Australian TSA six sectors are classified as characteristic, and 13 are classified as connected as shown in Table 3 (Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2009). All the remaining products and sectors are classified as all other goods and services or all other sectors, respectively. Table 2. Production-based Approach: Inclusions and Exclusions Includes  GHG emissions directly produced by

Excludes

 GHG emissions of non-Australian-based tourism sectors airlines (inbound and outbound services)  GHG emissions from Australian-based  GHG emissions from production of airlines (inbound and outbound services) imports directly purchased by tourists  GHG emissions from imports used as inputs in producing goods and services for sale to the Australian tourism industry

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Table 3. Tourism-Characteristic and Tourism-Connected Sectors in Australia Tourism-Characteristic Sectors      

Travel agency and tour operator services Taxi transport Air and water transport Motor vehicle hiring Accommodation Cafes, restaurants, and food outlets

Tourism-Connected Sectors             

Clubs, pubs, taverns, and bars Other road transport Rail transport Food manufacturing Beverage manufacturing Transport equipment manufacturing Other manufacturing Retail trade Casinos and other gambling services Libraries, museums, and arts Other entertainment services Education Ownership of dwellings

Source: ABS (2009).

Using the Australian TSA, the authors have estimated the direct GHG emissions associated with the tourism production. The carbon footprint has been estimated for 2003–04, the latest year for which detailed GHG emissions data are available in a form suitable for this type of estimate. The estimates of GHG emissions were based on the Monash Multi-Regional Forecasting Model-Green (MMRF-GREEN) database (Adams 2006) and Department of Climate Change (DCC) statistics on industry GHG emissions (DCC 2006, 2007a, 2007b, 2007c). The emissions associated with each tourism industry were assumed to be in the same proportion to total emissions as the ratio of tourism output to total output for that industry. Thus, if tourism-related output is 30% of the total output of an industry, 30% of that industry’s GHG emissions are attributed to tourism. CO2-e, as measured by the DCC, is used in these estimates. The direct emissions of GHGs from tourism sectors are estimated to be 10.5 MT. Some aggregative results are shown in Table 4. The second column of Table 4 shows the percentage of tourism output contributed by various industry sectors. These figures are based on the Australian TSA for 2003–04 (ABS 2007). The dominant tourism sectors in terms of output are accommodation services and shopping. ‘‘All other industries’’ are much larger but comprise a substantial number of tourismrelated industries including petrol refining, education, health, and business services. The third column shows the GHG emissions associated with each

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Table 4. GHG Emissions Intensity by Tourism Industry Sector, Australia, 2003–04 Tourism Sector

Domestic air transport Nonair transport Accommodation services Food and drink Shopping All other tourism characteristic and connected sectors Total

GHG Emissions (MT CO2-e)

% of Tourism GHG Emissions

GHG Emissions Intensity (MT CO2-e/$ ’000 Output)

9.68

5.947

56.68

1.01

5.84 11.94

0.695 0.967

6.62 9.22

0.19 0.13

8.16 11.58 52.80

0.298 1.018 1.568

2.84 9.70 14.94

0.06 0.14 0.05

100.00

10.493

100.00

0.17

% of Tourism Output

Source: Estimates based on ABS (2007), Adams (2006), and Forsyth et al (2008). Note: MT CO2-e represents million tons of CO2 equivalent gases. GHG emissions intensity per AUD$1,000 of output is measured in tons. Nonair transport includes road transport, rail transport, water transport, and other transports; food and drink include animal food (meat and dairy), other food and drink; shopping includes textile, clothing and footwear, wood products, paper products, chemical products, nonmetal and mineral products, and trade; and all other tourism characteristic and connected sectors include petrol refining, other equipment, communication services, ownership of dwellings, business services, government administration and defense, education, health, other government, and other services.

industry. Total direct emissions are 10.493 MT. Domestic air transport contributes 5.947 MT GHG emissions, which equals 56.68% of all tourismrelated direct GHG emissions. Shopping and accommodation services contribute 1.018 and 0.967 MT GHGs to the Australian economy, respectively. Column three shows the proportion of tourism-related direct GHG emissions by industry. For transportation-related industries the proportion of direct GHGs that they emit exceeds their share of industry output. For example, domestic air transport contributes less than 10% of tourism output but over 50% of the GHG emissions. In contrast, accommodation services and shopping contribute proportionately less GHG emissions than their contributions to total tourism output. To facilitate comparisons between industries, the final column of Table 4 estimates GHG emissions of tourism sectors per AUD$1,000 (US$930) of output. The tourism sectors that emit most GHGs per AUD$1,000 of output

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are domestic air transport followed by nonair transport, shopping, and accommodation services. The estimates of GHG emissions per AUD$1,000 of output (1.01 tons for domestic air transport and 0.06 ton for food and drink) are consistent with a recent study of Canada’s tourism carbon footprint. In that study, Jackson et al (2008) estimated energy use and GHG emissions for two tourism sectors in Canada, air transportation, and food and beverage services. They found that air transportation directly generated 1.03 tons of GHG emissions for every CAD$1,000 (US$995) of tourism output (in nominal terms) in 2002, while food and beverage services produced 0.03 ton of GHG emissions for every CAD$1,000 of output. The TSA production-based approach facilitates domestic and international comparisons of carbon footprint because the estimates of GHG emissions in Table 4 are directly comparable to the GHGs of other industries. However, because transport is vital, particularly road and international air transport, to Australian tourism this figure understates its contribution to GHG emissions. In particular, the estimates exclude two important types of emissions. Listed in Table 2 as inclusions, these are emissions from tourist use of motor vehicles and emissions associated with international air travel supplied by non-Australian-based airlines. Both of these items are appropriate inclusions in estimates of the carbon footprint of Australian tourism. First, the production of fuel used by motor vehicles creates emissions, as does the consumption or use of the fuel for transport. Since rental cars form an important mode of transport for both domestic and international tourists the emissions of GHGs from this activity adds to tourism’s carbon footprint. In addition, households that use motor vehicles for tourism-related purposes generate GHGs in this activity. While tourism use of household motor vehicles is not strictly part of the tourism industry, when defined in production-based terms, they have been identified and included in this study because of the importance of this source of tourism-generated GHGs. Second, the production of international airline services by Australian-based airlines generates GHGs. These GHG emissions result from fuel used as input to the international operations of Australian-based airlines as well as the use of other inputs such as catering services and other on ground activity. A full accounting of the GHG emissions associated with Australian tourism should include these two sources of GHG emissions. Table 5 provides the results of a production-based calculation of Australia’s tourism carbon footprint. The first row lists the direct emissions from tourism sectors, which is 10.5 MT following from Table 4. These direct emissions comprise only 19.3% of the total (direct plus indirect) emissions.

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Table 5. Production-based Carbon Footprint (CO2-e Emissions in Million Tons (MT), 2003–04) Source

Kyoto

Non-Kyoto

Australian International Foreign sourced aviation Kyoto emissions Australian- emissions based airlines emissions

Total GHG (Kyoto+ Non-Kyoto) Emissions

% Share of Total Direct and Indirect GHG Emissions

Direct emissions from tourism sectors

10.5

10.5

19.30

Emissions from tourism-related private motor vehicle use

11.1

11.1

20.40

4.7

4.7

8.64

4.7

26.3

48.35

18.8

34.56

Emissions from international aviation Total direct GHG emissions Indirect emissions from tourism inputs

21.6 18.8

Emissions from imports

8.1

8.1

14.89

Emissions from transport of imports

1.2

1.2

2.21

9.3

28.1

51.65

9.3

54.4

100.00

Total indirect GHG emissions

18.8

Total direct and indirect GHG emissions

40.4

4.7

Source: Adapted from Forsyth et al (2008) with permission from STCRC.

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Direct emissions include emissions from private motor vehicle use for tourism-related purposes that are currently identified as part of household production in the national accounts. Including this amount increases the direct GHG emissions that fall under the Kyoto agreement to 21.6 MT. Total direct emissions are 21.6 MT. The third column includes direct GHG emissions from Australian supplied international aviation. These are Australian sourced emissions, though they currently are not counted for Kyoto measurement purposes. International air services emissions (4.7 MT) are regarded as ‘‘non-Kyoto’’ given that countries including Australia do not actually report on them at the present time. The fourth column includes GHG emissions from foreign producers, either from aviation services, or in the production of goods that Australia imports to supply the tourism industry. The fifth column provides the total GHG emissions for each row. Total direct GHG emissions are 26.3 MT that is 48.35% of total (direct plus indirect) emissions. These are expressed as percentages in the final column. See Forsyth et al (2008) for methods of measurement of the GHG emissions from the different sources. To provide an even wider understanding of the contribution of tourism to GHG emissions it is also helpful to extend the analysis to include indirect emissions. Tourism GHGs include not only those associated with its production but also with the intermediate products that are purchased by the industry to produce the goods and services in order to meet tourist needs. The following section presents a wider production-based approach to measure tourism carbon footprint. Indirect GHG emissions include those associated with the production of firms that provide inputs to tourism. This acknowledges that tourism GHGs include not only those associated with tourism production but also with the intermediate products that are purchased by tourism to produce the goods and services to meet tourist needs. Measuring indirect output involves tracing the flow-on effects of businesses’ intermediate purchases that are used directly in producing products and measuring the additional output that these purchases generate. For example, the intermediate purchases of the accommodation, cafes, and restaurants sectors would include items such as carpets, furniture, electricity, tablecloths, and food purchased from other industries or from imports. In turn, these other industries make intermediate purchases from others industries (or from imports) in order to produce the items they sell to the accommodation, cafe, and restaurant sectors. The sequence continues, until all intermediate purchases can be directly accounted for as tourism-related output or imports. These effects are important to consider because the overall carbon footprint of the tourism industry depends upon the total (direct plus

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indirect) effect on output from tourism activity. Indirect GHG emissions are associated with GHGs generated in producing inputs used by the tourism industry (18.8 MT), emissions from imports (8.1 MT), and emissions from transport of inputs (1.2 MT). As noted above, an input–output model was employed to calculate the indirect GHG emissions from tourism sectors (Adams 2006). Total indirect GHG emissions are 28.1 MT. Thus in 2003–04 total (direct and indirect) GHG emissions are estimated at 54.4 MT (26.3 MT plus 28.1 MT). The format of Table 5 acknowledges that different GHG emissions associated with tourism must be treated differently under international obligations. Some of the emissions from Australian tourism are produced in Australia, and included under Kyoto accounting rules. Kyoto relevant emissions are 40.4 MT. However, there are GHG emissions from Australian firms producing in Australia that are not included under Kyoto rules; the main example of this is GHG emissions from Australian airlines’ international services. It is uncertain how aviation will be handled in a post-Kyoto (or postCopenhagen) framework. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is playing a valuable role in developing an equitable framework for regulation of the aviation sector (ICAO 2008), but the outcomes of the Copenhagen meeting did not give rise to anything by way of global or individual targets for countries. Australia, like other signatories of the Kyoto Protocol, has a responsibility for its Kyoto emissions and has committed to reduce them. The Australian government has committed to a target of reducing emissions by 60% below 2000 levels by 2050 (Department of Energy, Resources and Tourism 2008). However, it has no specific commitments to reduce GHG emissions from international aviation. The international aviation components are largely unattributed at the present but remain as a significant risk to Australian tourism. Although these have been categorized above as non-Kyoto, ongoing negotiations may result in their inclusion within an international emissions regime. Either way, given Australia’s distance from markets, it is important that the magnitude of this component (and future risk) be examined. Mitigation policies should be enacted to meet the challenges of climate change as they will have serious consequences for long-haul travel. Emissions from import of goods and services to Australia are the responsibilities of other countries, but would affect the competitiveness of Australian tourism if their prices were to change due to implementation of climate change mitigation policies in supplier countries. Based on the TSA definition of tourism production, Table 6 compares tourism carbon footprint with that of other Australian industries. Indirect

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Table 6. Tourism Production vs. ‘‘Nontourism’’ Sector Direct CO2-e Emissions by Economic Sector, Australia, 2003–04 Economic Sector

GHG Emissions (MT)

Share (%)

Electricity and gas supply Agriculture, forestry, fishing Household (transport) Metal products Road transport Tourism Mining Petroleum, coal, and chemical Accommodation, cultural and personal Oil and gas extraction Nonmetallic mineral products Household (nontransport) Mining nonenergy Air transport International air transport—Australian-based airlines Food, beverages, tobacco Water transport Wood, paper, and printing Railway transport Government administration and defense Water, sewerage and drainage Other transport, services and storage Education, health, and community services Wholesale and retail trade Machinery and equipment Communication Textile, clothing, footwear, and leather Finance, insurance, property, and business Other manufacturing

194.00 130.06 44.50 33.88 26.92 26.30 23.06 18.82 15.96 15.03 10.35 9.72 5.86 4.79 4.70

34.96 23.44 8.02 6.10 4.85 4.74 4.16 3.39 2.88 2.71 1.86 1.75 1.06 0.86 0.85

Total

554.95

3.50 2.22 2.15 1.69 1.57 1.33 1.23 1.15 0.86 0.48 0.46 0.45 0.20 0.02

0.63 0.40 0.39 0.30 0.28 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.15 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.004 100.00

Source: Estimates based on ABS (2007), Department of Climate Change (2007a), and Adams (2006). Note: Tourism production includes private motor vehicle use and Australian-based international aviation; Tourism is not an ANZSIC economic sector and, to avoid double counting, is not counted in the total.

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emissions for other industries are not currently available and thus Table 6 shows direct emissions only. Total direct emissions from the Australian economy are 554.95 MT. The great bulk of its direct GHG emissions are associated with electricity and gas supply, agriculture, forestry, and fishing. With direct GHG emissions of 26.3 MT, tourism is ranked as the sixth in terms of emissions. Tourism-related emissions comprise 4.7% of total GHG emissions. Interestingly, GHG emissions associated with tourism exceed those associated with mining and petroleum, and coal and chemical production. Depending on what items are included and excluded from tourism industry production, it ranks anywhere from fifth to seventh in respect of the GHG emissions from industry production. More details are provided in Forsyth et al (2008).

CONCLUSION GHG emissions are a major cause of global warming, which is expected to have profound effects on the destination competitiveness on all continents. The focus of this chapter has been on the carbon intensity of tourism in a particular destination, Australia. As with other industries, tourism generates GHGs directly when it sells goods and services to tourists and indirectly when it purchases inputs that require energy in their production. The production-based approach employed in this study can form the basis for estimating the carbon footprint of any destination that has a TSA and thus offers the opportunity of generating consistent and comparable estimates for different countries. The carbon footprint of tourism can provide important information to policy makers as to its GHG emissions, the breakdown of emissions by sector, including international benchmarking, and the emissions associated with different tourist segments. Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions can be distinguished as demonstrated above. To fully understand the implications of tourism for GHG emissions it is argued that it is also necessary to consider the indirect effects in the production of goods and services for tourism consumption, including those occurring from the production elsewhere, imported into the destination for tourism-related use. An estimation of tourism’s carbon footprint represents a starting point for the development of industry strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change (Climate Action Network 2009). Only if the full extent of GHG emissions is known can national and state government address the issue of whether or not the industry as a whole (and its constituent sectors) is pulling

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its weight alongside other industries in meeting Australia’s obligations under the Kyoto protocol. If tourism industry stakeholders are to play their role in reducing their GHG emissions alongside other industries as part of a comprehensive post-Kyoto global climate change response framework, estimates of overall emissions and the emissions by industry sector are essential to inform debate on policy. Given the responsibilities of all Kyoto signatories to reduce their GHG emissions, the measures of carbon footprints are an essential base to determine areas that can be addressed, and strategies that can be implemented to reduce emissions while maintaining competitiveness. As stated earlier, a carbon footprint is essentially an accounting measure to determine how GHG-emissions-intensive an industry is. It is not an impact model and hence cannot be used to estimate the changes in GHG emissions that would occur following a shock to tourism demand. Economic modeling is required to estimate the impacts of different industry interventions, including different variants of the government’s proposed emissions trading scheme (the so-called Climate Pollution Reduction Scheme) on overall GHG emissions. To measure these impacts, it is necessary to specify what further changes in GHG emissions are associated with changes in tourism due to the changing composition of the industry following introduction of the scheme, and after all interindustry effects have been played out. Variants of the Climate Pollution Reduction Scheme will have different impacts on tourism. For example, if major emission intensive export industries are shielded from the scheme, as is currently being proposed, this will impact more severely on the Australian economy than if these industries are not given such treatment. The net result of these industry interactive effects can only be determined through economic modeling (Dwyer, Forsyth, Madden and Spurr 2000; Dwyer, Forsyth and Spurr 2003, 2004). The authors are presently using a computable general equilibrium model to assess the impacts on the tourism industry from Australia’s proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (Hoque, Forsyth, Dwyer et al 2009). The estimates provided here for the Australian tourism carbon footprint are, to the authors’ knowledge, the most accurate to date given the available data. It would be feasible to expand on, and further develop, this carbon footprint in several directions. One involves the development of carbon footprints for Australia’s states and territories using state-based TSAs that have been developed separately by the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre (2009). Another possible approach would involve updating the work presented here by taking into account changes in the outputs of the tourism industry reflected in more recent national TSAs. Recent information

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on emission-intensities of industries, and improvements in efficiency would be more difficult to obtain, though projections can be made, enabling a more up-to-date estimation. The approach would also facilitate the measurement of the carbon footprint over time. Trends in emissions can be identified whether in aggregate, by industry sector, or by tourist market. Another area for research is to explore any differences between the production-based approach as employed here and an alternative expenditure-based approach that estimates GHG emissions from tourist expenditure perspective. Researchers also need to consider how improved measurements may be derived and the data necessary for this. In another study, the authors have used the Australian TSA to provide both production-based and expenditurebased estimates of Australia’s tourism carbon footprint. Some work in this direction has already commenced but more is needed (Forsyth et al 2008). The measurement of tourism’s carbon footprint, based on a TSA defining the scope of the tourism industry, has relevance for any destination concerned to develop its industry in a sustainable way. The approach discussed in this chapter can provide estimates of the carbon footprint for tourism industries worldwide, facilitating international comparisons and providing inputs to policy formulation.

Acknowledgments The research for this chapter was undertaken for the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre (STCRC), Australia. A more substantial version was published as a technical paper (Forsyth et al 2008). Permission from the STCRC to publish the present chapter is acknowledged. The authors wish to thank Drs. Thiep Van Ho and Daniel Pambudi for their input into the wider project involving tourism and climate change.

Chapter 12

TOURISTS’ CYBER TALES, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND NEW MEDIA Peter M. Burns and Agnes Wrobel University of Brighton, UK

Lyn Bibbings Oxford Brookes University, UK Abridgement: Cyberethnographic accounts of behavior are just emerging as a legitimate and useful way of exploring new forms of communication including the digital co-presence found in cyber communities. The chapter represents the first known account of such a research approach applied to issues of climate change in online travel communities as manifested through travelblogs. The research undertook observations of five online websites where experiences are shared and issues discussed. This first round of findings revealed no discussions on the topic of travel and climate change, which the researchers imputed to mean a lack of interest in the topic. A further round of observations was conducted on a site with a more nuanced approach to travel (though not an overtly green site). This revealed sufficient data for frame analysis: budding green, ironic cynics, reluctant cynics, candourants, and rational cynics. The findings suggest that the tourism and climate change issue as seen by these tourists is confused, paradoxical, and cynical. The main conclusion is that there must be greater efforts in creating public understanding of science so as to change behavior in ways favorable to diminishing greenhouse gas emissions. Keywords: cyberethnography; climate change concern; typology; cyber communities; new media Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 203–221 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003015

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INTRODUCTION Climate change is a major threat for society. Its anthropogenic roots should no longer be considered controversial. However, mixed messages from the media and mixed policies from governments have moved together to form an almost perfect storm of confusion about climate change issues. Such confusion causes barriers to the public understanding of climate change and its implications as captured by a UK government report ‘‘there is a solid foundation of knowledge on climate change being created among the population but significant areas of confusion, ambivalence and potential ‘denial’ are still worryingly prominent’’ (Anable, Lane and Kelay 2006:32). Many actors and networks, taking a variety of positions, are involved in communicating climate change information thereby adding to the liquidity of the knowledge base. Tourists are one group of people who have to consider the climate change issue as they become increasingly aware that tourism is a significant greenhouse gas-emitting sector. Tourism, however, cannot simply be diminished, interrupted, or substituted. It is intricately bound up in the global economy and just as intricately threaded through the global psyche as it has shifted from a simple outcome of capitalized leisure to a social necessity in advanced economies. Tourist-generating countries and their destinations are mutually dependent in the sense that flows of tourists in need of recreation (so that they return home as productive citizens) are accompanied by flows of money that have the potential to make a major contribution to the economic wellbeing of the tourist receiving systems. However, confusion in climate change issues arises not only from various contradictions within the tourism value chain, but also from print, broadcast, and digital media coverage. Such coverage creates inconsistencies between values and attitudes, which in turn results in direct resistance to change, behavioral vacillation, or the rabbit-caught-in-the-headlights syndrome. As a result, citizen consumers are so frightened of the consequences of their actions that they simply wait for inevitable crisis to strike. The purpose of this chapter is to report the findings of research undertaken to investigate what ordinary tourists were choosing to say about their travel experiences and whether they linked these to issues of climate change. The chapter begins by setting the context for the study and briefly discusses the relationship between tourism and climate, and climate change, and the importance of the attitude of individual tourists in changing global travel behavior. The influence and power of the media in shaping individual and societal attitudes to issues such as climate change are discussed in recognition of the link between behavior and attitude. For long-lasting

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change to take place behaviors have to be consistent with attitudes. The research, which used cyberethnography to access, observe, and evaluate the views and perceptions of tourists who posted their unsolicited comments on climate change in relation to individual tourist experiences on travelblogs, is described and discussed. The chapter concludes by reflecting on the research process, the findings, and further work needed to understand the relationship between climate change and tourism. Climate Change and Tourism The tourism industry and climate change stand in a contradictory relationship. On the one hand, tourism contributes significant amounts to global carbon emissions (Peeters and Go¨ssling 2006) but on the other hand, it seems impossible for destinations and the global economy to do without the economic and social benefits generated by it. The United Nations World Tourism Organization indicates, ‘‘the tourism sector is a non-negligible contributor to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions derived especially from the transport and accommodation of tourists’’ (UNWTO 2007a:4). The organization furthermore argues, ‘‘tourism emissions from three main sub-sectors are estimated to represent between 4% and 6% of global emissions in 2005’’, and reveals ‘‘that in 2005 transport generated the largest proportion of CO2 emissions (75%) from global tourism, with approximately 40% of the total being caused by air transport alone’’ (UNWTO 2005:13). There is a caveat to these data in that the UNWTO is discussing emissions generated directly by tourism whereas when it talks of tourism being more than 10% of global GDP it is taking into account direct, indirect, and induced elements. There is an interdependent relationship between tourism and climate. The UNWTO emphasizes this somewhat obvious point ‘‘With its close connections to the environment and climate itself, tourism is considered to be a highly climate-sensitive economic sector’’ (2007a:4), which means that if the climate at the destination does not fulfill the conditions, tourism demand will simply shift or disappear completely. Burns and Bibbings cite the Secretary-General of the UNWTO (2005) who makes the rather obvious point ‘‘favorable climatic conditions at destinations are key attractions for tourists. It is especially true for beach destinations and conventional sunand-sea segment, which is still the dominating form of tourism’’ (2009:36). Stern (2007), on the other hand, reveals that an increase of temperature might have quite positive benefits for tourism in destinations in higher latitude regions. These tourist-generating regions that might now be

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repositioned as receiving areas with short winters and pleasant weather conditions as the climate is changing. The complex relationship between tourism, climate change, and weather can therefore be noticeable in both directions. An increase in temperature can thus either downsize tourist arrivals or attract them depending on the destination. Insightful perceptions of the dependency between tourism and climate change is a precondition of adaptation. The discrepancy between the social and economic necessity of tourism, on the one hand, and the required change in global travel behavior, on the other, is causing a real dilemma: woe betide the politician in origin countries who suggests that tourists should no longer fly to parts of the world utterly dependent on tourism, and equally damned is the politician who humbly accepts limits to tourism due to transport restrictions. Tourism is a profoundly important economic sector for most countries and regions of the world, as for many not to have tourism is not an option. In the end however, the global scale of tourism comprises a series of local transactions, and consumption comes down to the single household and individual consumer: tourism is hence reliant on the attitudes and values of those consumers. The experiences that form the essence of tourism and tourist motivation cannot be removed from society. Poor countries and rich alike are dependent on it in different ways (either for the foreign exchange in investment or for the psychological well-being of populations). The ‘‘Holy Grail’’ of planners and environmentalists will be able to seek innovative ways in which tourism can still provide peak experiences but with a much lower carbon footprint. Matzarakis, de Freitas and Scott (2004) in discussing the work of Peeters, Go¨ssling, Ceron et al (2004) argue that if tourism is to stay sustainable, its environmental effects cannot exceed a critical threshold level. This can, however, only happen when attitudes and behavior toward all forms of travel and mobility alter. As yet, such attitudes and behaviors are not properly understood. Communication and the Power of Media While effective communication about climate change can lead to positive behavioral changes, the focus needs to be on the media that are most influential on societal attitudes. Generally speaking, it is not scientists or politicians who influence individual behavior but rather newspapers, television, radio, and the news media. The amount of information is diversified and will not always be consistent. Moreover, the tone and rhetoric used by the media will influence values and behavior. In the climate change debate, scientists,

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politicians, and the public are largely interdependent on the media and therefore stand in a close relationship with each other. In a case study, conducted by Boykoff and Boykoff (2007), print and broadcast media coverage on climate change in the period from 1989 to 2004 was analyzed. It appeared that three journalistic norms were broken as the differences in scientific language and reader’s interest could not be matched. Complex scientific findings often expressed in probabilities were dramatized or downplayed in order to gain readers’ attention and pandered to the existing values of the audience as perceived by the media generators leading to misunderstanding and confusion. Boykoff and Boykoff (2007) point out the failures of the media to disseminate un-sensationalized knowledge and their role in the social construction of climate change knowledge. A study commissioned by the Energy Saving Trust 2007 (Segnit and Ereaut 2007) of daily media coverage associated with climate change within the United Kingdom resulted in similar findings. Segnit and Ereaut reported ‘‘the uncertain and contrary field of climate change’’ (2007:6) and went on to identify the role of a small number of major players who influence the public domain by their way of communicating. Through a categorization of media in major groups, they analyze how communication of climate change, between March and July 2007, could have been improved and which language should be utilized in order to change public behavior in relation to climate change. According to Boykoff and Boykoff (2007) scientifically reliable information, such as published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), gained little attention by the media as these kinds of findings are expressed in scientific language and are not media friendly. Thus, a gap appears between scientific findings and media reports. Public perception is manipulated as the media, with their not-so-hidden political agendas and standpoints, mediate between scientists and the public. Fox News is particularly virulent in its attacks on climate change findings (Mediamatters 2006). Segnit and Ereaut (2007) also refer to the scientific findings reported by the IPCC and found that a shift toward consensus in climate change is taking place. This shift is the result of a change in language, which uses more measured rhetoric rather than hyperbole and alarmism. This means that the barrier to change is not set too high, does not cause too much despair and allows and encourages societal activity and control. Page (2005) identifies how behavioral changes against climate change can be made and the contexts within which individuals are most likely to change their behavior. Page finds that where resistance to change is the greatest, the smaller the differences between values, attitudes, and behavior. If changes

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want to be achieved, the dissonance between values, attitudes, and behavior has to be eliminated so as to reduce resistance to change. As indicated above, the complex field of climate change is vulnerable to confusion. As a result a clear and consistent structure can remove misconception. Similar analytical work has been conducted by Anable et al who note, ‘‘knowledge and attitudes about climate change or environmental issues often fail to be translated into changes in travel behavior to mitigate its effects’’ (2006:9). They refer to the attitude–behavior gap and argue that if changes in travel behavior are to be achieved, then attitudes and behaviors have to be consistent. Controversies are still emerging about the extent to which climate change is an important issue for people and how climate friendly behavior can be encouraged. Segnit and Ereaut point out that the major players in communications should encourage communities in order to get the opportunity to address people directly, they argue ‘‘by harnessing the latent power of locality, interested organizations could begin to close the gap between the official consensus on climate change and the public’s willingness to do something about it’’ (2007:39). In a small group the feeling of having the power to act and to achieve changes becomes more accessible and achievements are rather visible. Therefore, generating discussion and taking collaborative action in a community can have a major impact on a behavioral change. The findings of Anable et al also concur with the community aspect and reveal ‘‘any travel behavior change strategy will be more effective if it targets change at the community level’’ (2006:3).

BLOGS AND BLOGGERS’ PERSPECTIVES With the context of problems stemming from the confluence of climate change and its public commentators, the investigation aimed to see what ordinary tourists were choosing to say (as opposed to how they respond to questions) on the issue of their travel and its impact on climate change. The method (described in more detail below) could loosely be described as nonparticipant observation drawing on the emerging anthropological methodology of cyberethnography. A particular characteristic of the study was the observation of new media (such as open access web-based travel diaries, personal commentaries, and travelblogs). These observations enabled new insights into unmediated and unprompted commentaries about climate change in relation to tourist personal experiences. This research is important because it leads to an assessment about the extent to which climate change is an issue important enough to be posted and talked about

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on digital travelogues. Evaluating attitudes and behaviors toward climate change is particularly important as positive environmental behavioral changes can only be achieved if the gap between attitude and behavior is closed (Anable et al 2006; Page 2005). Public online travel diaries present a way where tourists describe their experience during their travel and provide a means to find possible comments about climate change. These travelblogs are a form of digital community. Magid and Collier who analyze social networks note ‘‘Trying to define social networking is very much like trying to pin down a moving target, because it’s evolving so quickly. In its earlier phase, social networking was either blogging (having anonline journal or being an amateur commentator) or socializing (finding friends and connecting with them)’’ (2006:2). Blogs, in general, provide a platform to share information, exchange opinions, and socialize without corporeal co-presence. The Education Subject Centre also noted ‘‘The phenomenal growth in blogging is indicative of the relative ease in creating a web-based diary to share personal expertise and knowledge’’ (2008:13) and pointed out that the ease of using such blogs also explains the rapid growth of the blogosphere. Blogs are also referred to as social networking sites and their characteristics are still emerging and being explored through the medium of digital co-presence (Zhao 2003). Silverstone (2005) draws on Urry (2002a) to reveal that digital co-presence implies that users of the computer technology are much more connected than mere keystrokes would imply. Cyberspace, as Kuntsman (2004) suggests, requires ‘‘rethinking y the concepts culture and location y it also demands a re-examination of the idea of ‘the field’’’. These travelblogs provided the ‘‘field’’ where attitudes and behaviors concerning climate change and tourism were exposed by tourists-as-bloggers. The aim of the study was threefold. They are to evaluate open access webbased travel diaries and personal commentaries in relation to narrative comment on climate change; to acknowledge Becken’s (2004) approach to analysis of interviews with tourists on their perceptions of climate change and carbon offsetting by using the results to segment tourists into categories to provide frames that characterize the views of these tourists; and to contribute to mitigating and adapting tourism’s contribution to climate change through greater understanding of the tourist. Study Methods The publicly accessible online travel diaries (travelblogs) are a means by which tourists communicate their travel experiences. They also provide an

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investigative cyber-arena (or proxy set of informants) where comments on travel and climate change become data that help plug the attitude–behavior knowledge gap. The research drew on the tenets of a traditional ethnographical approach in order to write the culture of social experience and cultural systems (Goulding 2005) of what can be classified as a cyber community. A cyberethnographical approach, described by Churchill (2005) as ‘‘the writing of the culture(s) of the computer mediated, tele-sociality of the physically disconnected’’ gathers web-based data in order to gain insight into groups and what they are thinking (Allen 2007). The term virtual ethnography has also been coined (Teli, Pisanu and Hakken 2007) to describe fieldwork in a computer-mediated setting. Naples and Bojar describe cyberethnography as the ‘‘observation and analysis of organizational political presence online, to develop not only out of observation but also out of participation’’ (2002:238) and therefore include the observational aspect, which is a way to gather data from online travelblogs and is hence relevant for the purpose of the investigation. At the heart of the investigation was the idea of capturing unprompted narrative data about climate change and travel. Overtly green blogs were deliberately avoided. The narratives posted were expected not to be biased by expert knowledge or openly stated green attitude toward climate change. This would make an additional independent study for another time. Gajjala (2004) raises another aspect of possible interference in content during a cyberethnographical approach when observers start to post comments or ask questions themselves. The investigators were sensitive to that issue and chose not to contribute to the emerging online discussions so as to maintain the integrity of the unmediated data. Brooker (2005) brings up a third issue, the time dimension, noting that cyberethnography has the capacity to monitor how ideas in relation to a certain current topic build up over time compared to old posts and hence identifying trends in the narrative. The research was thus designed to not influence the observed. Any intervention could create possible behavioral change, which would have compromised the data and insights into the extent to which climate change is an issue in self-directed travelblog narratives. Thus, the design of the observation method emphasized that participants were not aware that they were taking part in an observational project. The researchers created two variables: how often climate change was mentioned and the actual content and how the argument of climate change was framed (positively, negatively, with cynicism, etc.). The four websites chosen were: travelpod.com; wayn.com; travellerspoint.com; and travelblogs.com.

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Frame analysis, which provided the analysis instrument, is a method used to describe and evaluate how people understand phenomena in specific contexts and how their awareness toward a particular issue is framed (Segnit and Ereaut 2007). Becken’s (2004) work on how tourists perceive climate change and the extent to which they would be willing to mitigate their carbon emissions provides an extremely useful tool. Becken’s approach to analyzing the interview results was to segment tourists into five groups by their responses reflecting different combinations of answers to two key questions. These then formed frames that characterized the perceptions of tourists in each group that she labeled ‘‘green tourists’’, ‘‘skeptics’’, ‘‘resisters’’, ‘‘uniformed willing’’, and ‘‘undecided’’. This mode of analysis was the adapted model for the primary research findings from the present project. The different context and medium of this study led to segmentation of respondents into groups that characterized their comments and resulted in a new typology being drawn that framed respondents as ‘‘budding green’’, ‘‘ironic cynics’’, ‘‘reluctant cynics’’, ‘‘candourants’’, and ‘‘rational cynics’’. Devising data collection is still in its infancy in cyberethnographical modes, but criteria were devised relating to the researchers’ desire for lack of overt greenness (avoiding ready green converts) and political neutrality (avoiding hard left and right viewpoints), which eventually resulted in four websites listed above being chosen. In choosing individual blogs, the first step was to go by continent––Africa, Antarctica, Asia, Central America, Caribbean Europe, Middle East, North America, Oceania, and South America––from which one country was chosen to represent a geographic region. This method laid the foundation for facilitating data covering a broad range of possible insights, especially given that some countries might be more sensitive about climate change than others, not only in terms of vulnerability (flooding coastal zones or melting snowfields) but also in terms of pro- or anti-climate change political culture (for instance, northern Europe as opposed to the United States). The travelblogs from individual participants were additionally chosen by the 10 latest blogs posted so that the blog was newsworthy and up-to-date regarding the issues of climate change being disseminated in news media. Therefore, the participant’s blogs observed had to fulfill the criterion of the geographic region and they had to be contemporary. This approach led to a total of 307 online individual travelblogs being observed. The time dimension plays a significant role in researching public awareness on climate change and tourism. The issue is fluid with new perspectives and news coverage constantly emerging creating a situation

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where change is anticipated. Therefore, the researchers chose a crosssectional study or snapshot at one point in time (Cooper and Schindler 2008:144). Finally, constraints in budget and time contributed to a closed observation period (between March 13 and 17, 2008). These dates were not bound to any particular event related to climate change and did not have a significance for the purpose of this project. As with the observation object, the posted travelblogs were fixed, they were not vulnerable to any changes, and the observation was therefore more flexible than the ones depending on time. A longer period of time could distort or change public awareness concerning the climate change as new issues emerged (Segnit and Ereaut 2007). This observation was unproblematic and after every travelblog observed, a record was taken. Study Limitations It is traditional to discuss limitations at the end of a research publication. However, an issue arose that needs contextualizing at this earlier stage. As will be seen below, what could be seen as a serious limitation (or a major finding) arose: the 307 weblogs observed revealed no significant interest whatsoever in climate change issues. This came as a complete surprise to the investigators who, in setting up the research, confidently hypothesized that climate change would be on the minds of the traveling public and that there would be commentary on the issues and paradoxes arising from tourist mobility and the resulting carbon footprints, even if such postings were in the form of guilt, denial, or blatant sarcasm. What the researchers did not expect was no reaction, which was completely at odds with the heavy news coverage that climate change had received in the lead up period to the research observation window. This meant that insufficient data were generated to undertake a frame analysis of tourists’ views, or indeed to draw any conclusions about how tourists were blogging about climate change issues apart from the obvious and rather ‘‘big’’ finding that the choice was not to mention it, or that it was not on the bloggers’ minds. A third possibility exists that bloggers are aware of the speed with which the blogosphere can spiral out of control with virulent personal attacks on those airing controversial views and so chose to stay silent so as not to disturb the blog’s atmosphere. The lesson learnt for the researchers was that academics’ hypotheses about people’s attitudes can be misguided. The lack of climate change discussion came as a shock exposing the researchers to be naive in their assumptions. The limited findings are reported as part of the present chapter.

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In response to the null data, the researchers decided to broaden the observation to include one more site that was still not overtly green but where it could be assumed that tourists contributing blogs would be green aware, i.e., a website that supports taking an overtly pro-environmental stance with a propensity to take requisite actions to back this stance (responsibletravel, transitionsabroad, rezhub, gogreentravelgreen, etc.). Lonely Planet (inside-digital.blog.lonelyplanet.com/) fulfilled the criteria of a suitable site where more complex travel experiences were exchanged with a thoughtful but not necessarily green orientation. Twenty-one travelblogs from Lonely Planet were observed that revealed sufficient data for analysis. It is acknowledged that while the research entailed a rather small sample, it did test a novel method of research and analysis dealing with the new media of postmoderns, generation Y and their attitudes.

Analysis and Findings The observation of 307 individual online public travel diaries (weblogs) showed that very little attention was being paid to climate change issues and did not generate sufficient data for frame analysis. Terms such as climate change, climate variability, or global warming were hardly mentioned at all. There were, however, a few instances that are reported here. A post from a blogger called ‘‘Helen’’, included the phrase: ‘‘We went with his brother to see a charity screening of the Inconvenient Truth––the Al Gore movie about climate change (NOT global warming)’’. It does not, however, give any further evidence on the blogger’s personal attitude toward climate change or if it is of any personal importance. The blogger does not mention if she wants to see the movie because of her personal interest in climate change, or as an ordinary form of entertainment. It might on the other hand be argued, that Helen knows that there is a difference between climate change and global warming as emphasized in brackets. As the literature revealed, people often confuse the two expressions that results in climate change being addressed as something banal or perishable, e.g., confused with weather. A second blog, also from Helen says, ‘‘I have decided to get together a football ‘team’ to watch the World Cup games with. Guttingly, Ben will be in Europe during the World Cup doing more research for his thesis (on climate change)––so unfair’’. This narrative does not give any indication for a possible position toward climate change. Although the blogger talks about climate change in her blogs, the use is rather unconscious and not addressed as main subject of the blog.

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However, one blog did generate comment about climate change. ‘‘KerryandLee’’ traveling through Russia on the Trans-Mongolian & Trans-Siberian Railway mentioned a stalagmite. This was picked up by ‘‘Walshie’’ with the remark ‘‘What a fantastic time you’re having! And great reading. Ah yes, but would Lee’s mum appreciate what happens to your stalagmite in the summer? With global warming permafrost ain’t what it used to be’’. This reveals something about the opinion of one of the tourist’s mother who is apparently concerned about climate change. Assumingly Walshie him- or herself also knows something about global warming according to the last sentence where he/she mentions that through warmer summers the permafrost loses its consistency and therefore harms the stalagmite. In conclusion, the tourists themselves––‘‘KerryandLee’’––however do not talk about any deviations in climate and consequently it cannot be concluded if they have an attitude toward climate change. In place of talking about climate change, most of the blogs address topics as the weather or history of the destination, like the one from ‘‘Philandchloe’’. A blogger by the name ‘‘travelwithMARIA’’ traveling through Germany, talks about food, which is also one of the topics that are common in the travelblogs besides friends and family, themes like major characteristics of the destination or special incidents that occurred during trip were addressed. Frame Analysis Given the paucity of data in the original intended sample, frame analysis was applied to the Lonely Planet data. The results of the allocation of comments to the appropriate frames revealed the percentages given in Table 1. For 37% of tourists climate change has become such a big issue that they actually start thinking to change their present behavior. They are consequently categorized as budding green. The willingness may be a positive sign on the one hand, but on the other hand, people might just say that they are thinking to change their behavior or actually making a change but in fact not changing behavior. There is also another relatively large group (25%), the so-called ironic cynics who are taking climate change as something serious while making jokes about mitigation and the implementation of laws and expressing their comments in an exaggerated way. This does not show that these bloggers think climate change is something funny, rather that they express anger and disappointment in an ironical way. The group that saw climate change as an issue, the ‘‘reluctant cynics’’ and the ‘‘candourants’’ group both accounted for 16% and simply acknowledged the fact that the global climate is changing. It cannot be concluded that the ones

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Table 1. Frame Descriptors and Allocations Frame Number F1

F2 F3 F4

F5

Frame

Budding green

Frame Descriptor

Climate change is present, it is posing a threat and therefore thinking environmentally, making a contribution and putting ideas into action is important Ironic cynics Climate change is present, but there is not much we can do about it Reluctant Climate change is present, maybe we can do cynics something about it Candourants Climate change is present and it is posing a threat and it needs to be talked about openly Rational cynics Climate change is here but old habits die hard, and it is too awkward to change travel habits

Percentage of allocation 37

25 16 16

7

seeing climate change as an issue are also willing to change their behavior; they therefore make up part of the ‘‘reluctant cynics’’ group. The ‘‘candourants’’ acknowledged that climate change has severe impacts on the environment, but in the same way as the ‘‘reluctant cynics’’ do not say anything about an urgency to act. There is finally a small remaining group, 7% that does not pay attention to a behavioral change due to climate change and is as a result called ‘‘rational cynics’’. This group makes no effort to reduce their tourism carbon footprint in light of climate change evidence and make efforts to rationalize their unchanged behavior. ‘‘Budding green’’ group showed intent to act in response to climate change but the intentions are not yet necessarily transformed into actions. The comments revealed wishes, desires, and also demands like ‘‘Short haul flights should be heavily taxed’’ or ‘‘the richest nations need to reduce their per capita CO2 rates’’, like the strategy suggested by Dubois and Ceron (2006). The comments all demonstrate a clear knowledge of wider issues and technicalities, such as the role of CO2. This group also recognized the urgency that people need to start acting now and appealed for a superior organization that sets directives and encourages those to start changing immediately. Some bloggers also expressed statements of doubt or concern

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like ‘‘I love to travel, but am not sure it is the responsible thing to do at this point in history’’ and ‘‘Once more those who have a lot will be able to use this lot to make a lot more, and those who have little will have only less’’ which showed an approach of desire to change and furthermore a concern about third world countries who will suffer the most from climate change, as identified by Stern (2007). A number of the most positive posts were those encouraging others and suggesting solutions like ‘‘don’t fill up the kettle when you’re boiling water–– just put in what you need, recycle your plastics, cans, paper y etc., share a bath or shower with someone else (;B)) y etc.’’ or ‘‘getting yourself as wellinformed as possible, you set a positive example, you encourage and facilitate that example in your community, you take note of the small successes’’ showing a profound knowledge about climate change initiatives and even in parts matching the solutions concerning the community aspect identified by Segnit and Ereaut (2007). One comment ‘‘Being an eco-friendly traveler, I decided not to fly’’ was a clear decision to change behavior: to stop flying. Finally, comments like ‘‘signing Kyoto won’t save the world but it’s a good step to being included in the global movement towards governmental change against climate change’’ illustrated a feeling of confidence and belief that superior authorities are working toward climate change mitigation. Comments in this group acknowledged climate change as something happening with an urgent need to adapt and mitigate. Although the approaches were different, the willingness to act was noticeable. However, with the exception of the blogger who decided not to fly, no comments implied evidence of a behavioral change. So it cannot be concluded if the bloggers only encourage others to act or if they act themselves. It is evident that the willingness to act exists but needs to be supported by clear and consistent guidelines from organizations dedicated to climate change and legislation. ‘‘Ironic cynics’’ are a group that is framed by black humor and cynical remarks. The comments were categorized by fear, irony, anger, and even aggression. Cynical comments from bloggers relating to climate change did not exhibit less knowledge than comments by the first group, but comments by ironic cynics are in a more direct manner ‘‘there might well be benefits in travelling y but travelling with the full conscious knowledge that what you are doing is effectively murdering the possibility of life for future generations y I’m not sure how you can really describe that as beneficial y.’’ This identifies that the bloggers are actually concerned about what is happening or even angry that nothing is being done although the situation is serious. Other comments, express views of personal opinions like ‘‘Al Gore’s

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documentary on climate change, An Inconvenient Truth, is designed to make you uncomfortable. After all, the discomfort is minimal to that which we will experience when the planet fries up or freezes up. Doomsdayist? Not necessarily’’. After all the bloggers’ comments were occasionally extremely personal like ‘‘You would have stayed in your little shell without these forms of transport and would now not be concerned about environmental issues as much’’. The ‘‘ironic cynics’’ group acknowledged that climate change is an issue but found it extremely hard to hold back their comments and expressions of excitement. The reason for this is the frustration that nothing actually seems to be happening. The ‘‘ironic cynics’’ definitely see climate change as an issue but seem to have lost confidence in politicians and in the top-down approach, which is mentioned by Segnit and Ereaut (2007). ‘‘Reluctant cynics’’ made only comments on climate change, without making any particular personal statement or judgment. Comments like ‘‘Carbon offsetting is one viable option’’ and ‘‘Climate change isn’t uniform all over the world and the effects wouldn’t be uniform either’’ were all grouped as reluctant cynics because they show a basic knowledge, are neutral, do not illustrate an intention to act, but express themselves in mildly cynical ways. Although the bloggers mentioned that it is an important issue, there was no remark on the need to proceed against climate change. Moreover, all comments that brought up doubt or bloggers that were unaware and therefore discussed questions as ‘‘I am unsure about whether it wouldn’t actually be more environmentally friendly to fly instead of taking the train’’ and ‘‘I was just wondering how many people here think man can do anything about the real effects of a warming world we are seeing and how many believe we can have no relevant impact at all’’ were also grouped reluctant cynics as it cannot be imputed if behavioral changes are considered. This group made the most basic comments on climate change and demonstrated no particular technical ease with the concept. They also expressed no particular attitude or behavior in their travel habits or plans. The characteristic of the ‘‘candourants’’ (an invented word for a group that generally expresses itself through candor) is that they are attaching more emphasis to climate change than the reluctant cynics. Comments like ‘‘For me the scientific evidence is very strong for the link, especially based on computer modeling and simulation’’, ‘‘What you should do is study the scientific method and learn to separate science from belief systems. It’s difficult for many to do, but needed’’, and ‘‘climate change cannot be stopped, the rate of acceleration can be slowed but it would seem that that is all’’ show an understanding of climate change and also see it as an issue. It is

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remarkable that the comments in this group do not mention anything about an altering behavior although they acknowledge climate change as an approaching threat that cannot be stopped. ‘‘Rational cynics’’ represented only by 7%. Climate change is not a sufficiently important issue in order to change their current traveling behavior. Comments like ‘‘unfortunately planes are just quicker y.’’ and ‘‘The only reason I fly in Europe is cost, trains are just so much more expensive!’’ show that acting in a climate friendly way is inconvenient and implies the investment of more time and money. The implications to act in a climate friendly manner are not incurred and present behavior is continued as usual. It does not, however, mean that environmental concerns do not exist at all. Although the plane journey is seen as a convenient means of transportation because of the time saving factor the comment ‘‘I do realise there is something unsustainable in the way I catch domestic flights like I might a taxi. Hmmm’’ revealed a noticeable doubt about neglecting any climate friendly behavior. The extensive research of 307 online private travel diaries showed that tourists do not choose to talk about climate change. The bloggers’ main focus in their narratives was rather put on friends, family, and photographs they posted, with the intention to give an update of their trips for the addressees. These findings therefore support the literature noted earlier (especially Boykoff and Boykoff 2007). The vast amount of information concerning climate change is not processed in an appropriate way by the media. Content is partly changed, left out, or presented in a wrong way (dramatic or alarmist). Through inappropriate wording and rhetoric style, pressure is created and people might feel forced to act instead of changing their behavior by themselves and because they want to. The analysis of individual travelblogs has not revealed any positive behavior in the context of climate change and the main outcome from the first tranche of research was that climate change does not seem to be issue for the contributors. The limited findings on the initial travelblogs shifted the focus to another travelblog Lonely Planet with results in the five different frames. The ‘‘budding green’’ expressed desires, wishes, and demands concerning climate change. It however also became apparent that feelings of concern and doubt emerged, as guidelines from institutions are not clear enough and need to be more consistent. Thus, this group expressed the demands for required achievements in order to help to mitigate climate change. The style of language characterized the group of the so-called ‘‘ironic cynics’’. Not only expressions of irony but also anger, fear, and aggression were identified in the comments of this group. Thoughts were not expressed in this way in

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order to amuse themselves, but rather to express their anger and to actually point to the urgency of the issue. These results also supported parts of the findings in the literature, according to Segnit and Ereaut (2007) who identify that people lost confidence in politicians and should be approached more bottom-up than top-down. The ‘‘candourants’’ and ‘‘reluctant cynics’’ groups showed a lot less intensity in the way they expressed urgency for the actual change. Compared to the ‘‘reluctant cynics’’, the ‘‘candourants’’ bloggers saw climate change much more as a threat and also attached meaning to threatening effects. Although neither set of comments contained the will to act against climate change and therefore did not attach any attention to mitigation strategies, knowledge on climate change was available and urgency to act was present. The fifth group, the ‘‘rational cynics’’ know that their specific behavior may harm the environment but did not demonstrate any interest to change. It can be concluded that climate change effects may not be threatening enough and therefore a behavioral change is not necessary yet. The application of this basic form of cyberethnography clearly showed how people deliberately use the Internet to communicate with each other. The observation of the communication of bloggers (and the community of bloggers) concerning climate change revealed that the Internet is a new means of people interacting and sharing similar ideas and views. This new media is therefore providing knowledge exchange through communication and was identified as a means that might help mitigate climate change. Further research results, however, revealed that if tourists chose to talk about climate change, it was only a minority. Although a number of people recognized the approach of mitigation strategies, most of them did not mention any change to their behavior. However, a quantitative amount of knowledge demonstrated an existing willingness to engage in environmentally friendly behavior. The findings of the literature review were confirmed in several points, such as the acknowledgement that humans are responsible for climate change and that it is them and their behavior that lead to high carbon emissions, that the consequences from climate change will have enormous impacts in the future, that the effects for developing countries are greater, that as a result developed countries will have to reduce emissions and that action is required because the consequences cannot be overcome otherwise. The research on normal (not specifically green) travelblogs showed that tourists chose not to talk about climate change in any meaningful way. Findings from the ironic cynics align with media confusion and lack of political leadership. There is overwhelming sense of irony tinged with helplessness and a general sense of lack of interest and of willingness to act.

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Such research with the acknowledged limitations does not lend itself to generalizations, but these snapshots seem to be building up a picture to support existing literature on climate change communication, which generally argues that confusion is the reason for tourists’ lack of knowledge, and as a result generates a rather reserved behavior. Lack of knowledge between causes and effect of climate change, people do not form clear attitudes toward it nor do they change their behavior. The transition from attitudes to change in behavior therefore fails with the result of not addressing the issue on the travelblogs. The literature also showed that media such as television, the Internet, and newspapers have a great influence on people’s framing arguments on climate change and it is actually the tone and rhetoric that leads to confusion.

CONCLUSION The intention of this project was to investigate how tourists communicate climate change issues in their travel diaries and to reveal any insights that hold, or could encourage beneficial actions from tourists. Through the literature in combination with the empirical findings, it can be concluded that tourists are not touched emotionally enough to act against climate change, which is not sold as interesting or necessary. Tourists are rather told to ‘‘do their bit’’, which for them sounds like a duty and just results in the opposite of the desired action, ending up as no action at all. Therefore, a sophisticated investigation in communication and language might bring much greater improvements to the way in which scientific and meteorological research can be brought to bear on behavior regarding mitigation and adaptation attitudes and actions. The initial null result that revealed very few green issues addressed in online public travelblogs was extremely surprising. In the first place, researchers expected that results would be more multifaceted. However, no dialogue found on the climate change topic revealed something very interesting in itself. The extension of the research nevertheless then provided sufficient evidence for analysis and exhibited very diverse debates. Although the findings in the literature revealed that there is a shift toward consensus, the findings illuminated that there is still massive need for what is commonly called public communication of science. As for the current discussion on climate change, the findings have added important information about the extent to which tourists pay attention to

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climate change. The research has revealed that tourists do not choose to discuss climate change when unprompted. It also demonstrated cyberethnography as a useful tool given that the Internet presents huge potential to develop further cyber communities and to help bloggers address the community aspect, which was also concluded from the findings. Areas for further work include a deeper understanding of the relationship between climate change and tourism, which remains conflicted and barely understood.

Chapter 13

CASE STUDY: RAISING AWARENESS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE IN CANADA Rachel Dodds and Sonya Graci Ryerson University and The Icarus Foundation, Canada

Abridgement: This chapter discusses the creation of The Icarus Foundation, a not-for-profit organization that was founded in 2007 to address the issues of climate change and tourism in Canada. As Canada’s first nongovernmental organization in this area, the role of the foundation will be described and current initiatives undertaken will be outlined. Challenges to starting a nongovernmental organization in Canada will also be discussed, such as lack of funding, an unmotivated tourism industry, relaxed government regulations, concern about climate change, and its impacts on the tourism industry. The Icarus Foundation began and continues to operate with skeletal staff and the manpower of a few individuals, precariously facing the potential to become extinct if action and support are not provided. Keywords: Canada; The Icarus Foundation; nongovernmental organization; activism; mitigation

INTRODUCTION Tourism is one of the world’s largest, fastest-growing, and labor-intensive industries and has a high capacity of redistributing wealth within Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 223–234 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003016

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participating countries through job creation, increased services, amenities, and infrastructure. Due to the large and rapidly expanding nature of the industry, tourism is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (United Nations World Tourism Organization-United Nations Environment Program 2008). Taking into account tourism’s current economic contributions, its potential growth and the impact of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the environment, it is becoming increasingly necessary to identify and implement mitigation and adaptation strategies. In order to motivate the tourism industry in Canada to take action on climate change, The Icarus Foundation, a not-for-profit organization, was founded in 2007. The foundation focuses on working with the industry and developing practicalbased mitigation strategies in order to move the climate change agenda forward. This chapter examines the creation of The Icarus Foundation as well as the opportunities and challenges faced by developing a nongovernmental organization (NGO) in Canada that focuses specifically on climate change issues within the tourism industry. The chapter will provide an overview of the organization followed by an analysis of the key issues facing The Icarus Foundation and its objective to assist Canada becoming a low carbon destination. Tourism is one of Canada’s leading growth sectors, fourth in its economic contribution to the country’s gross domestic product. Approximately 30 million nonresident tourists entered Canada in 2007, which add to the approximately 34 million Canadians traveling within the country. International and domestic business and leisure tourists spent a total of US$67.3 billion (CAD$70.6 billion) in Canada in 2007 alone. Foreign tourists account for 23% of total Canadian tourism expenditures, making it an important export industry (Canadian Tourism Commission 2007; Tourism Industry Association of Canada 2007). This rapid growth, however, has also brought negative impacts and threats. In addition to tourism consuming natural resources such as water and energy (A´lvarez Gil, Burgos Jime´nez and Ce´spedes Lorente 2001; Bohdanowicz 2005; Go¨ssling, Peeters, Ceron et al 2005; Graci and Dodds 2008; Kirk 1995), climate also has an important influence on operating costs for the industry. A change in climate will result in the need for more heating and/or cooling, snowmaking in regions such as British Columbia, which base their economy on the ski industry and may suffer from warmer climates, the need for irrigation due to a lack of rainfall, the effect on agriculture and water supply due to a change in weather patterns, and the rise in insurance costs due to the increase in natural disasters. Climate change not only affects tourism but also the economy in general in Canada. It is one of the few industries that must move its consumers to the point of consumption. Due to

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Canada’s vast size, flying is common even for seemingly short trips (for example, Toronto to Montreal is a one hour flight versus a six-hour drive). Additionally, although the majority of Canada’s population lives close to the United States border, many of its attractions such as national parks, glaciers, and wildlife require flying in order to visit them (such as Northern Territories and Northern provinces). Transportation to and within Canada uses vast quantities of fossil fuel. Tourism, like most industries, has enjoyed yearly growth due to the availability of cheap energy. One external threat is limited oil resources and the reality that oil prices will continue to rise as the production of existing oil reserves may soon peak. As outlined in the United Nations World Tourism Organization-United Nations Environment Program (UNWTO-UNEP 2008) and United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO 2007b) reports, there are both direct and indirect effects of climate change. Climate is a principal resource for tourism, determining both the suitability and appeal of locations for specific tourist activities as well as defining the season in which those activities can occur. Studies indicate that a shift of attractive climatic conditions for tourism toward higher latitudes and altitudes is very likely, and some of Canada’s tourism sector might benefit from longer seasons, while others (notably winter destinations) might suffer from reduced and unpredictable snowfalls and winter conditions. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) has forecast that weather patterns are likely to become more extreme and less predictable with an increase in storm intensity, hotter days, intense precipitation, and severe droughts in midlatitude continental interiors. As a consequence, the tourism industry will face increased costs associated with the repair of damaged infrastructure, emergency preparedness, insurance costs, backup water/power systems, and business interruptions. There are also indirect effects on tourism that are related to climate change. Researchers (Bows, Anderson and Peeters 2007; Go¨ssling et al 2005; Hall and Higham 2005; Peeters 2007a; Scott, Jones and Abi Khaled 2005) all note that since climate is a major determinant of the characteristics of ecosystems, its rapid change will result in habitat change and loss. Issues such as decreased water, increased hazards, erosion, and flooding are all possible. Mountain, island, and coastal destinations are considered particularly sensitive to climate-induced environmental change, as they are nature-based market segments. Many of the species Canada features in its tourism marketing (such as whales, otters, caribou, and polar bears) are already endangered, and rapid changes in their habitat increase their risk of extinction. Habitat change, such as the warming of Canada’s boreal forest, is encouraging the spread of new

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disease and pests. For example, the pine beetle in British Columbia has reduced rare valuable timber inventories and blighted the landscape and aesthetics of the boreal forest sought by tourists. Over the past few years, awareness of and concern about the dangerous effects of the rise in global average temperature have gained significant ground around the globe. According to Globespan, two-thirds of Canadians in 2007 rated climate change as a ‘‘very serious’’ problem, up from 57% in 2006. Concern is escalating due to a lack of government action and leadership. Demand studies indicate that the consumer wants more focus on the environment in their travel as well. Results from a recent Conference Board of Canada survey (Redekop 2007) found that nearly seven in 10 of 2,046 survey respondents were willing to pay US$9 or more for every $900 paid in their air fares if the funds collected were used to develop government approved forms of green energy in Canada (Redekop 2007). Residents of Quebec and British Columbia were more willing to pay into such a fund than residents of other provinces, and approximately 17% of British Columbia residents and 14% of Quebec residents were willing to pay more than $37 for every $900 paid in airfare. Only 8% of Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan residents were willing to pay more than $37 above their regular airfare to help develop green forms of energy. Out of Canadians planning a trip overseas, 14% would contribute more than $37 per $900 in their airfare to help develop green forms of energy (Redekop 2007). Despite this awareness, there has been little pressure placed on the industry by the government to implement climate change initiatives. The result, therefore, is a piecemeal approach to climate change mitigation. Ideally, it is the role of the federal government to lead the movement toward climate change action by developing a comprehensive climate change strategy related to tourism and assisting the industry in developing and implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Tourism Industry Association of Canada and other industry bodies have held policy meetings that discuss climate change. Yet, there has been little pressure exercised at the federal government level and on the industry to make substantial progress on this issue.

THE ICARUS FOUNDATION The Icarus Foundation was initiated in order to address the need to mitigate the impacts of tourism-induced climate change in Canada. The Icarus

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Foundation was started by six individuals in 2007 with extensive experience in both tourism and the environment. The founders who were concerned that insufficient attention was being given to the direct and indirect effects of climate change in relation to tourism in Canada agree with Francesco Frangialli, former Secretary-General of the UNWTO, that tourism is both a victim and vector of climate change and must play its part in the global reduction of the GHGs recognized as accelerating climate change. The mission of The Icarus Foundation is therefore to be the catalyst that helps Canada become a low carbon tourism destination. Its goals are to measure, monitor, and reduce the carbon footprint of Canada’s tourism industry and, thereby, contribute to the reduction of Canada’s GHG emissions; educate destinations, industry associations, tourism suppliers, and visitors about the overall contribution made by tourism to global warming and help reduce their individual and collective contribution to GHG emissions and use of fossil fuels; advocate the vision of Canada as a genuine ‘‘carbon neutral’’ travel destination; help the Canadian tourism industry adapt to the impact of climate change on its operations; identify and promote examples of best practice within the tourism sector in Canada and communicate positive stories to visitors; and become a recognized authority on all matters directly related to tourism and its contribution to climate change. The model of The Icarus Foundation is to work in partnership with industry, government, and academics. It is the involvement and motivation of all interested parties that will change the way climate change is managed in Canada’s tourism industry. Putting Theory into Practice It is the principle of The Icarus Foundation to be a practical-based NGO that focuses on partnership development to move the climate change agenda forward in the tourism industry. Despite many challenges, several initiatives have been implemented in the short 2 years that it has been in existence. To start a new NGO is a very difficult task, especially with regard to receiving funding. The Icarus Foundation has run on skeletal funding for the last 2 years and has been fueled by the passion of the founding members. Many of the initiatives have been developed on a pro-bono basis from the founding members or worked on with minimal funding. Since its inception in 2007, a Board of Directors has been formed, consisting of representatives from industry and academia from across Canada. However, the challenges facing The Icarus Foundation in the time of economic crises has limited the number of initiatives that can be

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implemented. In addition, considering that Canada is very relaxed in terms of developing climate change mitigation strategies and policy, it has not been motivating for the industry to move this task forward. The industry does not want to invest financially in The Icarus Foundation. It is only keen to participate in discussions about climate change. Despite the challenges in funding and industry support, the foundation has implemented and continues to implement a number of initiatives that highlight the issue of climate change in the Canadian tourism industry. One of the first initiatives was to issue a challenge to the industry to acknowledge their impact on climate change. The discussion paper ‘‘The Climate Change Challenge—Implications for the Tourism Industry’’ (Icarus Foundation 2008) was sent to all major tourism industry associations and organizations. The paper summarized the causes and effects of global warming, asserting that failure to address the multiple risks associated with climate change, be they physical, regulatory, financial, reputation, or operational, will undermine Canada’s competitive position in international tourism. Furthermore, failure to grasp the indirect effects of climate change (i.e., rising energy costs, changing consumer demand, ecosystem degradation, security issues, and regulations) might also impede tourism’s growth and progress. The second project was to determine opportunities and challenges with regard to climate change. This research used qualitative in-depth interviews with key stakeholders in the Canadian tourism industry to assess various issues surrounding climate change impacts. These included challenges and threats, mitigation and adaptation strategies, barriers or challenges hindering implementation of climate change strategies, and tools and incentives needed to mitigate climate change threats. The research compared the opinions of four different stakeholder groups regarding opportunities and challenges with regard to climate change in Canada’s tourism industry. They were deputy ministers of tourism, the Tourism Industry Associations, the CEO’s of provincial tourism marketing bodies, and directors of other governmental departments (Industry Canada, Parks Canada, and Environment Canada). A total of 24 interviews were conducted and the results were published in an academic journal and can be found on The Icarus Foundation website (see Dodds and Graci 2009 for further information). In 2008, The Icarus Foundation decided to embark on working with industry to develop practical-based solutions for mitigating climate change impacts. The underlying assumption was that it would be focused on moving the agenda forward. In order to do this, the foundation decided to specialize in applying sustainability concepts to major tourism events in Canada.

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The first part of this endeavor was to develop Green Meetings and Festival guides to provide guidance with examples of successful greening initiatives and a strategy for implementation. The guide was published on The Icarus Foundation website and disseminated to several stakeholders. The second element to this initiative was to work with a major Canadian festival to assist it in becoming a carbon neutral event. The Icarus Foundation partnered with Pride Toronto, Canada’s largest festival with over one million tourists. In 2009, the initiative received funding from the Ontario Trillium Foundation to measure the current environmental impact of the festival and to develop a 3-year strategy to implement sustainability throughout all aspects of the festival and organization. The goal is to make Pride Toronto carbon neutral by 2015. Toronto will also be hosting the World Pride event in 2015, which will attract over three million tourists. The impact of greening Pride Toronto activities will be immense as it will address all aspects from festival events, to the office, and the supply chain. It will also act as a pilot for other major events and festivals in Canada. The Icarus Foundation has also been instrumental in working on a number of research and industry collaborations. Several research projects have been conducted to examine potential mitigation and adaptation strategies. All reports are available on the website. The foundation has also been present at numerous conferences, workshops, and speaking engagements, educating industry and community on tourism’s impact on climate change. Key Issues Facing Canada Through the work of The Icarus Foundation, the tourism industry and related communities have become educated and aware of the issues surrounding climate change and tourism. Although there are not any measurable indicators at this time, the foundation has received a high profile in the industry. However, the reality in Canada, as identified through several consultations and attempts at funding projects related to climate change and tourism, is that climate change is not considered a priority among the regulating bodies. In a study conducted with the Canadian tourism industry, when asked to rank how important respondents considered climate change to be in determining the industry’s future viability, the response was ‘‘very important’’ (mean ¼ 7.5/10 where 10 ¼ extremely important and 0 ¼ not at all important), and 96% of respondents believed climate change to be a critical issue as tourisms’ product is dependent on the environment. Substantiating this figure were a number of major threats and challenges

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associated with climate change and tourism. Respondents noted numerous general threats, including rising sea levels, less snow and shrinking glaciers due to warming weather, and increased erratic weather patterns. Respondents also noted issues specific to tourism, such as climatic factors affecting winter sports and affecting the nature/adventure product. Other threats stated were related to mitigation policies (e.g., increased oil prices), and the belief that this would result in a lack of competitiveness for Canada’s tourism industry due to a lack of mitigation efforts and the country’s dependence on flying. Although many tourists come from the United States and do drive, many others come from abroad, thus requiring flights to reach Canada. Due to the size of the country, tourists also rely on flights to see many regions. Respondents felt that Canada’s image as a ‘‘pristine, green and outdoor’’ destination may lose its appeal if government and industry are not seen to be doing its part with regard to mitigating environmental effects. Some provinces have committed to increasing tourism revenues (such as British Columbia), and concern was raised about how this can be accomplished without increasing detrimental effects. Despite this knowledge, however, the respondents were lacking in terms of what they could specifically do in terms of their own organizations and Canada as a whole. The tourism industry in Canada is looking for leadership in relation to climate change but does not want to take the leadership role itself. Despite the obvious expressed concern of stakeholders about climate change, few tourism organizations were addressing this challenge with concrete measures. Although climate change was considered to be an important issue, mitigation strategies to reduce GHGs have been piecemeal in their approach. Out of 24 interviews from representatives across Canada, no organization or government had endeavored to estimate the proportion of GHGs contributed by tourism (in province or sector) to Canada’s overall emissions. The majority of initiatives were based on education and awareness-building as more conferences are being implemented by industry on the topic of climate change. Most provincial and federal ministries, government associations, and provincial tourism associations have also set up committees to talk about climate change, although no specific deliverables have been set. One provincial ministry has put forth SMART tourism guidelines. The guidelines were formed from principles based on sustainable development, and are now used to assess project funding and some other programs for coastal awareness and energy efficiency. These projects, however, are still in their infancy and have not directly focused on climate change mitigation. They instead address sustainability issues in general.

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Thus far, the industry appears to be leading the way in terms of initiatives. Nonregulatory programs do exist, such as the Hotel Association of Canada’s Green Key program that now includes almost 800 hotels. However, there are multiple concerns of poor rigor in the calculations of GHG emissions and concerns that mitigation strategies are not addressed within the program. Within industry, there is a code of ethics for sustainable tourism and a tool kit was developed by the Tourism Industry Association of Canada/Parks Canada, and the Canadian Tourism Commission to assist industry with sustainable tourism practices. Neither of these initiatives, however, are enforced or measured, nor are they specifically climate change related. In addition, not all respondents are moving toward voluntary initiatives. Many marketing associations felt such initiatives were not within their mandate and were leaving it to the provinces and federal government to develop policies and legislation regarding climate change. The Cruise Line Industry Association claimed they were not concerned at all (Dodds and Graci 2009). In terms of government, very little is being done in regards to addressing issues related to climate change in the tourism industry. In summary, many ministries, destination marketing organizations, and industry associations have not established a plan to address climate change, as they noted it should be the role of Industry Canada, a federal agency with the ability to influence policy and regulation related to climate change. Several respondents noted that silos have developed between provinces, and they believe it is the role of national government to ensure that a cohesive, comprehensive strategy be developed that creates dialogue between all parties. The issue of silos and lack of plans could be due to the lack of understanding about climate change impacts or skills on how to mitigate such impacts. Therefore, a partnership approach should be implemented and has been advocated by The Icarus Foundation. Moving Forward: What’s Needed? It is due to a number of issues such as the lack of leadership that much discussion has taken place but little action. The lack of funding from industry and governments to pursue climate change mitigation strategies in regards to the tourism industry has meant that The Icarus Foundation has been limited in the work that it can conduct. As mentioned earlier, funding has been a major problem within the organization. Funding to staff an executive director has not been available, which has resulted in the inability

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to pursue several other pertinent initiatives. Although consumer, industry, and government attitudes and perceptions toward climate change are shifting, there remains a high level of misinformation and confusion on the topic. It is generally perceived that Canada’s tourism product is not affected by climate change because of the vast wilderness within the country. However, with recent news items from Europe and especially the UK pressuring tourists not to fly, Canada must consider the potential negative consequences of it, as air travel is a vital factor in exploring a country of its size. In Canada, although climate change is becoming an increasingly important issue to many stakeholder groups, there is little regulation, let alone action related to climate change in general. Many authors state regulation (Becken and Hay 2007) and policy initiatives are the answer to mitigating or reducing emissions and adapting to climate change impacts, but unless Canada accepts its responsibility for reaching its targets as part of the Kyoto agreement, national regulation is impossible. To further climate change mitigation action in Canada, partnerships between government and industry are needed to promote knowledge sharing. The Icarus Foundation has endeavored to foster this partnership. However, the foundation has faced numerous barriers in doing this. It is critical that issues of climate change mitigation and adaptation are dealt with in a holistic and communicative approach that balances tourism development with other activities. Climate change does not occur in isolation from other vulnerabilities and adaptations. Tackling other vulnerabilities that are not directly related to climate change is necessary to ensure that comprehensive and integrated actions occur that have the ability to be implemented. In order for this to occur, several initiatives are required. First, a cohesive and holistic national strategy for tourism that includes mitigation strategies for climate change is necessary. Such a strategy should not look at climate change in isolation but instead examine elements that will lead to a competitive, sustainable tourism industry across many levels (accessibility, environment, culture, and market readiness). Second, a partnership approach should be taken that encourages industry, multiple levels of government, academia, and NGOs to work together to develop priorities, initiatives, and strategies to move forward. The role and mission of The Icarus Foundation is to facilitate this partnership that would lead to action in the industry. Third, improving education and awareness on climate change and its potential impacts both at the industry level and among the public is needed to ensure stakeholders have a thorough understanding of the issues. This is also the role of The

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Icarus Foundation and will continue to be. However, without proper funding the regularity of reports, speaking engagements, and education will not be as pertinent. The Icarus Foundation can play a key role in developing an accountable, flexible, and participatory approach in ensuring that the tourism industry is moving forward in addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change.

CONCLUSION As the topic of climate change in general has hit the mainstream media and become more apparent on television, especially since 2007, people are beginning to push tourism suppliers to investigate destinations that will allow them to feel like they are not harming the environment. Most research has focused on impacts and issues of climate change. Yet little research is currently published on the awareness level of destinations and their ability to mitigate these effects. In Canada, as in many other countries around the world, there is a lack of regulation on climate change and its effects on the tourism industry. The future of Canada’s tourism is inextricably linked with the changing climate. Increased volatility and unpredictability in climate combined with a warming trend in Canada will impact operations and affect costs in many sectors relying on natural resources (notably winter sports, outdoor recreation, and adventure travel) as well as urban environments. The dependency of this sector on fossil fuels for transportation to and within a destination causes tourism to be a major contributor to GHG emissions. As a consequence of the increasing global concern about the negative impact of climate change, consumer perceptions and behavior are also subject to considerable change and volatility. Global climate change now presents a significant economic, financial, and political risk to the future viability of a healthy tourism industry. The Icarus Foundation’s work in regard to climate change and tourism has spurred positive actions in the industry and discussion among several industry leaders. The challenge, however, is how to take the agenda further and to develop the tools required to implement the actions identified as necessary. On little funding, the Foundation has established a membership model, held consumer events, written a guide for greening festivals and events, and is undertaking research on the municipal tourist boards and their level of action and understanding regarding climate change. However,

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without proper funding and support specific actions will be slow to materialize. While Canada’s tourism community has been sluggish in responding to this issue, some organizations can still take leadership. Bold vision and multiple actions concurrently executed are needed at all levels— national, provincial, community, and enterprise. It is the role of The Icarus Foundation to spur that movement toward leadership.

PART IV ISSUES AND ACTIONS IN ADAPTING AND INNOVATING TOURISM PRODUCTS AND DESTINATIONS

Chapter 14

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION AT REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALE Andreas Matzarakis University of Freiburg, Germany

Abridgement: Climate change will affect tourism at several temporal and spatial levels. This chapter focuses on the quantification of effects and the development of strategies to reduce extremes and frequencies as well as thresholds in tourism areas. Knowledge about possibilities for mitigation and adaptation of current and expected climate conditions requires interdisciplinary approaches and solutions. Several examples are presented, including the effects of trees against climate change and extreme events (heat waves), behavior adaptations, urban and regional planning measures, bioclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean and human–biometeorological conditions under climate change conditions, and user-friendly computer tools for the quantification of urban bioclimate conditions. Keywords: climatology; Climate-TourismInformation-Scheme; adaptation; microscale; Mediterranean

INTRODUCTION It is common knowledge that weather and climate affect human beings. Hippocrates, 2,500 years ago, wrote about regional differences in climate and its relationship to health. Apart from the weather and climate, other Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 237–259 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003017

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factors such as geographic location, topography, landscape, vegetation, and fauna are factors that influence decisions regarding areas to be visited for tourism (Becken and Hay 2007; Matzarakis and de Freitas 2001; Matzarakis et al 2004, 2007). It is well established that the weather/climate and tourism/ recreation are interconnected in diverse ways (Amelung, Blazejczyk and Matzarakis 2007; Lecha and Shackleford 1997; Shackleford and Olsson 1995) and, as such, tourists, tour organizers, travel agencies, tourism planners, and stakeholders need to be reliably informed and educated about the role of weather and climate in tourism (Matzarakis et al 2004). It can be distressing if people have to cancel a weekend trip due to weather reasons or spend all their time on holiday indoors because of rain or windstorms (Abegg 1996). Also travels to climate-stressed locations may result in health problems (such as those caused by heat stress, ultraviolet (UV)-radiation, air pollution, or heatstroke) (Matzarakis 2006; Scott, de Freitas and Matzarakis 2009). Knowledge of the weather conditions and information about climate can assist tourism in reducing negative effects on the economy (Bigano, Goria, Hamilton and Tol 2005; Wall and Badke 1994). General knowledge of climate parameter thresholds and their appropriateness for tourism constitute important information about several possibilities for tourism and recreation use, for instance information about frequent high sun load or strong winds. Climate extremes, such as heat waves or storms, are the most relevant here because of the possible damage to infrastructure and human life. A useful climate advisory service will help to prepare and protect tourists and groups at risk (retirees, sick people, and children) against the dangers mentioned earlier (Amelung et al 2007; Matzarakis and de Freitas 2001; Matzarakis et al 2004; Matzarakis, de Freitas and Scott 2007). Since the discussion about climate change and its implications for tourism is still ongoing, an additional aim of this chapter is to quantify expected bioclimatological and related tourism climatological factors (Matzarakis 2006). This can be performed by the use of the Climate-TourismInformation-Scheme (CTIS), which includes the most relevant and reliable parameters and tourism climatological factors (Lin and Matzarakis 2008; Matzarakis 2007a). The quantification of climate can be done by the use of existing climate data or by use of regional modeling based on climate simulations for the present or for the future. Ways to present results and ways on how to quantify them in a tourism climatological manner for expected future climatic conditions will be presented by illustrating the case of Palma de Mallorca up to 2050.

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The current discussion on climate change issues in the context of tourism is focused on the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies (United Nations World Tourism Organization 2003; World Travel and Tourism Council 1999). However, information about climate change is presented in the form of changes in mean air temperature or changes in precipitation amounts for future climatic periods from global to regional scales. More relevant though, is the quantification of extreme events and not only the trend of climatic variables. In the context of tourism, there is also a lack of different spatial and temporal scales. The effects of climate change will occur based on events (heat waves, droughts, and floods) and will take place at the local level where humans live and spend their time during the day and the year. Recent adaptation possibilities are focused on the climate protection issue (Go¨ssling and Hall 2006b; Go¨ssling et al 2005; Scott et al 2009). One aim of this chapter is to describe, in a clear manner, how weather, climate, and related weather extremes can affect decision making about destination choice and how existing weather and climate information can be accessed. In addition, the consideration of climate information for the tourism industry and local authorities in planning and protection of infrastructure will be shown. Finally, adaptation possibilities for individuals are given as well as low cost possibilities for the protection of humans and regional and local planning advices are presented in a relevant tourism climatological manner.

WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND TOURISM Two factors which affect tourism are weather and climate, and as such the relationship between them and tourism has been the focus of research in the last decade (Amelung et al 2007; Matzarakis and de Freitas 2001; Matzarakis et al 2004, 2007). For tourism climatology purposes, methods used in applied climatology and human biometeorology can be employed to address many issues in climate and tourism (Davies 1968; Fergusson 1964; Go´mez Martı´ n 2004; Harlfinger 1991). Some useful definitions for an integrated analysis and assessment of weather and climate in tourism include the following: weather is the present combination of atmospheric elements (physical condition of the atmosphere) at a specific time and location, and the resulting processes (timescale: days, weeks, months); climate is the typical representation of atmospheric and weather processes at a location or

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particular region over a long time period. It is characterized by the distribution of frequencies, mean, and extreme meteorological values (timescale: 30 years, a climatological normal period); tourism is the entirety of the relationships, phenomena, and experiences that arise from traveling and overnight stays of people in locations or areas other than their usual residence. These three definitions imply different temporal and spatial scales and they assume complex interactions among the three terms. Weather and climate have the following three characteristics in relation to tourism (adapted from Abegg 1996). The first is, that weather and climate present potential limiting factors in tourism. Their characteristics can rarely disrupt human activities absolutely, but they constitute a very important financial factor if viewed in the context of tourism. This implies that some regions of the world have minimal tourism potential, since their climatic conditions do not allow opportunities for it. Decision makers within the mass tourism industry are much less likely to invest in such kinds of areas, since this does not yield significant profit. Tourists who nevertheless visit these regions have to deal with high costs (of transport costs, for example) or physical inconvenience (body strain). Financial loss can also be caused by weather variations and changes. Rainy summers or less snowy winters can have negative consequences for tourism. The characteristic is that weather and climate are critical factors in tourists’ decision making. They shape both the tourism supply and demand. They influence, among other things, the choice of destination or the kind of activities to be carried out. The climatic factors play a significant role in the three phases of a tour: before, during, and after. The meteorological conditions also affect the design/construction of the daily schedule while on holiday. And finally, trips to climatically stressed areas of the earth can result in health problems (like heat stress, UV-radiation, air pollution, and heatstroke). A purposeful climate advisory service can be helpful for the protection of tourists and particularly groups at risk (elderly people, sick people, and children). Facets of Climate in Tourism Many of the factors creating the popular tourism triple ‘‘S’’ product (sun, sand, sea) are dependent on weather and climate (Figure 1). An additional factor that can be added to this diagram is snow, the main decision factor for winter tourism. This diagram shows the relevance and importance of weather and climate factors and parameters in the tourism industry. It is not one parameter or factor, for instance air temperature or precipitation, which

Figure 1. Climate Factors Important for Tourism Source: Matzarakis (2006). Published with kind permission of Taylor and Francis

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acts as the main driver of the facets of climate in tourism. Additional factors, such as the temporal and spatial resolution of these factors, are of importance as well. It is less relevant for tourism purposes to focus just on one single specific value of a factor, such as mean summer air temperature of a region with a high vertical extension in topography (Lin and Matzarakis 2008; Matzarakis 2006). For this analysis the chapter uses the most relevant parameters, including the above-mentioned climate facets in tourism and recreation (physical, thermal, and aesthetic) that describe the so-called climatic tourism potential (de Freitas 2003; Matzarakis 2006, 2007a). Thereby, threshold values of meteorological parameters are defined for tourism purposes. Table 1 shows the facets of climate in tourism and the temporal and spatial variability of them. In order to be able to assess the climatic tourism potential, air temperature and precipitation are not sufficient. For example, winter sports enthusiasts and winter tourists desire snow as well as sunshine and beneficial thermal conditions on their holidays. The thermal facet of climate is a complex index, which is based on the human energy balance and can describe the effect of climate both for cold and for warm conditions (de Dear and Pickup 1999; Fanger 1972; Gagge, Fobelets and Berglund 1986; Matzarakis 2007b; Spagnolo and de Dear 2003). In general, physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) describes the effect of the thermal surroundings on the human body based on the energy exchange between humans and the thermal environment (global and long-wave radiation, air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed) on humans. Former indices include only air temperature and humidity, and in some cases also wind speed, but have the disadvantage of not considering all variables affecting humans. The main advantages of PET are that it can be used for cold and hot conditions and is expressed in 1C, which is easier to understand (Fanger 1972; Ho¨ppe 1999; Matzarakis and Mayer 1997; Matzarakis, Mayer and Iziomon 1999; VDI 1998). The thermal environment expressed in terms of PET is calculated by the radiation and energy balance model RayMan (Matzarakis et al 2007). Matzarakis and Mayer (1996) produced a grade of physiological stress on human beings (Fanger 1972; Mayer 1993) into corresponding PET ranges (Table 2). They are valid only for the assumed values of internal heat production and thermal resistance of the clothing. Depending on the objectives of the evaluation, these meteorological parameters can be measured or calculated in a grid-net by numerical models (Matzarakis et al 1999). The approach used is more complex and more valuable in comparison to Mieczkowski (1985). It includes the full spectrum

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Table 1. Facets of Climate in Tourism and Their Temporal and Spatial Variability Facet of Climate

Temporal Variability

Spatial Variability

Aesthetic Sunshine/cloudiness Visibility Day length

Higha High Less and seasonal

High High Latitude

Physical Wind

High

High (elevation, weather) High High High Low High High High (elevation, latitude) Low Low

Rain Fog Snow Ice Severe weather Air quality Ultraviolet radiation Odors Noise

High High (region and season) Low b Low, season High High High (time of the day) Low High

Thermal High (from short time to From microscale (urban Integrated effects of air year); depending on time structure to valleys) to temperature, wind, solar of the day and changes of macroscale radiation, humidity, longmeteorological conditions (continents). High wave radiation, metabolic vertical variability rate, clothing Source: Adapted from de Freitas (2003). a High means that temporal/spatial variability of the factor changes significantly. b Low means that for temporal/spatial changes the factor is not changing or modified.

of thermal comfort and discomfort issues (Matzarakis 2007b). The other two facets, the aesthetical and physical, can be obtained by simple extraction of parameters and factors from data records, for instance, snow height and daily sunshine duration (Matzarakis 2007a). Furthermore, approach presented in this chapter combines meteorological- and tourism-related components. Thus, besides the two variables most frequently used in impact assessment studies (air temperature and precipitation), also PET (Ho¨ppe 1999), cold stress (PETo01C), heat stress (PETW351C), thermal comfort (181Co PETo291C), sunshine/cloud cover conditions in terms of the number of days with a cloud cover (o5 octas), vapor pressure (W18 hectopascal (hPa)), wind velocity (W8 meters per

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Table 2. PET Ranges for Different Grades of Thermal Perception Physiological Stress PET 41C 81C 131C 181C 231C 291C 351C 411C

Thermal Perception Very cold —————————————— Cold —————————————— Cool —————————————— Slightly cool —————————————— Comfortable —————————————— Slightly warm —————————————— Warm —————————————— Hot —————————————— Very hot

Grade of Physiological Stress Extreme cold stress —————————————— Strong cold stress —————————————— Moderate cold stress —————————————— Slight cold stress —————————————— No thermal stress —————————————— Slight heat stress —————————————— Moderate heat stress —————————————— Strong heat stress —————————————— Extreme heat stress

Source: Adapted from Matzarakis and Mayer (1996). Internal heat production: 80 W, heat transfer resistance of the clothing (clothing insulation): 0.9 clo.

second (m/s)), relative humidity (W93%), precipitation (o1 mm) as well as precipitation (W5 mm), and snow cover (W10 cm) (Lin and Matzarakis 2008; Matzarakis 2007a) are considered. Although the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2007) defines the ski potential by a minimum snow cover of 30 cm, for analysis the chapter uses a snow cover greater than 10 cm as adequate and sufficient for low mountain ranges from a climatic tourism point of view (Beniston 1997; Breiling and Charamza 1999; Kulinat and Steinecke 1984). Hence, in general, the definitions of the several threshold values do not necessarily correspond to the universal meteorological threshold values and are adjusted to applied tourism climatology. For example, under meteorological aspects, a stormy day is given by a wind strength of at least 8 beaufort (Bft), which corresponds to a wind velocity greater than 17.2 m/s, while in tourism climatology a wind velocity of 8 m/s (5 Bft) is perceived as unpleasant and uncomfortable (Besancenot 1989; Go´mez Martı´ n 2004). All the above-mentioned factors have been included in an information scheme in order to describe these factors in a high temporal resolution.

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Climate Data for Tourism To get information concerning climate change and tourism conditions, results from regional climate models have been used. Two climate periods, the climate normal period from 1961 to 1990 and for future conditions from 2021 to 2050 have been chosen. The period 2021–2050 has been selected because of the different timescales of processes for tourism and reaction times. The simulations are based on emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001, 2007a). Here, the A1B scenario, which is a realistic, worst-case scenario, has been applied. A1B scenario is based on rapid economic growth and a global population that reaches nine billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. Quick spread of new and efficient technologies (balanced emphasis on all energy sources) is considered as well as a convergent world in which income and way of life converge between regions and extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide take place. For tourism purposes, the results of global climate models make less sense because of their spatial resolutions of more than 100 km; hence, regional models are more relevant. Such models have become highly sophisticated numerical constructs over the past years, embodying a detailed description of physical processes and addressing multidecadal time frames on grids of typically 15–50 km mesh size (Hohenegger, Brockhaus and Scha¨r 2008). Numerous studies have been devoted to their development, tuning, intercomparison, and improvement (Christensen, Carter, Rummukainen and Amanatidis 2007; Frei, Christensen, De´que´ et al 2003; Giorgi and Mearns 1999; Hagemann, Machenhauer, Jones et al 2004; Jacob, Baring, Christensen et al 2007; Vidale, Lu¨thi, Frei, Seneviratne and Scha¨r 2003). The climate version of the local model has been used; it is based on the ‘‘LM’’ model of the German Weather Service for operational weather forecast. It is based on the primitive hydrothermo dynamical equations describing compressible nonhydrostatic flow in a moist atmosphere without any scale approximations. A basic state is subtracted from the equations to reduce numerical errors associated with the calculation of the pressure gradient force in case of sloping coordinate surfaces. The basic state represents a time-independent dry atmosphere at rest that is prescribed to be horizontally homogeneous, vertically stratified, and in hydrostatic balance. The basic equations are written in advection form and the continuity equation is replaced by a prognostic equation for the perturbation pressure (the deviation of pressure from the reference state). The model equations are solved numerically using the traditional finite difference method. The

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climate version of the local model can calculate, for example, the horizontal and vertical wind components, air temperature, air pressure and perturbations, air humidity, wind speed, and cloud water content and cloudiness. The resolution used for this study is 18 km. Based on regional climate simulations, an analysis for tourism can be performed and maps and other relevant material like the CTIS can be generated. Furthermore, adaptation possibilities can be performed as well, using regional climate simulations. Climate information at the meso- and microscale can be examined based on the model results. Meso- and microscale include climate and meteorological processes that take place in small areas such as coastal and valley phenomena and conditions. Therefore, the mesoscale is more connected to the regional level and the microscale to the local level. Model results cannot be the basis for mitigation strategies but for adaptation possibilities. For local climate simulations and modifications, air temperature and air humidity cannot easily be modified or changed, but wind speed and wind direction as well as global and long-wave radiation fluxes. To enable adaptation possibilities in the framework of this study, modifications of the thermal bioclimate by modifying the wind conditions and the global radiation have been performed. The results can build the basis for microscale modification or manipulations of the climate in tourism areas (Matzarakis and Endler 2009). Climatological and weather information can be derived from measurements and models. The planning of tourism climatological information is needed because of the limitation of weather prediction for long periods of time. During the holiday time weather information (based on weather forecasts) builds a valuable possibility in order to inform tourists and protect them, for instance information based on the UV index or information about heat waves. The adaptation for weather and extreme events is known and can be applied very easily. For climate change, the effects and adaptation possibilities are not easy to quantify. Based on future climate trends and with consideration of existing information, destinations can be analyzed and quantified. Recently, results for future climate conditions have been presented in the form of maps, for the period 2071–2100 or for the last decade of the 21st century. The results mostly cover changes in air temperature and precipitation only. On the one hand, these two parameters are relevant for tourism purposes, but future conditions to the end of this century are not as appropriate because of the different reaction times and frames of tourism. Tourism requires information that is in the near future and not in 50 or 70 years in the future. On the other hand, the air temperature and precipitation

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represent only two factors in the tourism facets of climate. Therefore, additional factors being presented and shown in the previous sections in different spatial and temporal scales are of high importance. Thermal Facet of Climate in Tourism Future climate conditions generated by the local model have been analyzed for the A1B scenario, thereby only the thermal facet of climate (PET) in tourism is considered and presented in maps. The maps cover the area of Europe. Two periods, 1991–2000 and 2091–2100, have been chosen in order to show the highest differences in the PET. Figure 2 presents the mean annual PET for the period 1991–2000. The values show that it varies from 31C in northern Scandinavia to higher than 351C in the Mediterranean area. The second coldest region is located in the Alps followed by the other high-altitude mountains in the examined area. Annual conditions in the thermal comfortable range (PET between 18 and 231C) can be found in the latitudes between 48 and 361N. Cooler conditions (PET less than 181C) can be obtained in low-altitude areas in the biggest part of Europe and in the North and Baltic Sea countries. Higher than 231C (light to strong heat stress) can be detected in southern Spain and Portugal as well as some parts of Cyprus and southern Italy. In summary, the maps show more or less the present conditions. For expected climate change conditions, the PET (Figure 3) shows the change from present conditions (1991–2000) to conditions between 2091 and 2100. In no area of Europe can a cooling be detected. The lowest increase of PET is about 21C and the highest about 91C. The highest changes are detected in the Alps and southern European countries, especially in higher altitude areas. The changes in southern Europe cover more than one physiological stress level according to Table 2. For the summer months (June, July, and August) the changes are much higher (Figure 4). The differences between 1991–2000 and 2091–2100 show the highest values in the range of 101C covering two levels of physiological stress. In comparison to other studies, the results are similar (Matzarakis and Amelung 2008; Tinz and Jendritzky 2003). It is noteworthy that in comparison to the changes in the annual mean air temperature shown for the end of the 21st century and the applied A1B scenario are much less than the PET and range from 2 to 6.51C. For a more detailed approach combining the physical and thermal facet of climate, the PET and precipitation conditions for the periods 1961–90 and 2021–50 for the region of Palma de Mallorca, Spain, have been analyzed.

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Figure 2. PET for Europe for the Period 1991–2000

The results are shown in frequency diagrams of PET and precipitation conditions in a monthly resolution. Figure 5 shows the PET conditions for the period 1961–90. The PET based on the monthly frequencies shows clearly that very cold conditions do not exist in Palma, whereas the heat stress conditions can be found only in the summer months. During July and August, 50% of the days per month show heat stress. The mean annual PET is 20.41C, the highest maximum is 44.31C, and the lowest PET value is 3.01C. For the expected conditions in the period 2021–50 (Figure 6) the PET conditions show a different picture with lower cold and higher heat stress conditions. The mean annual PET increases to about 1.51C, as do the minimum and maximum conditions. During the summer months, extreme heat stress increases on about 20% of the days. The days with PET W351C are increasing from 41 to 47 days per year. Moreover, precipitation frequency diagrams have been applied based on classes of daily precipitation amounts. The classes include days with no

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Figure 3. Annual Difference of PET Distribution for Europe (Period 2091–2100 to 1991–2000)

precipitation, days with precipitation less than 1 mm (what can also be counted as days with no precipitation), days with 1.1–3 mm, 3.1–5 mm, 5.1–10 mm, 10.1–15 mm, 15.1–20 mm, and days with 20 mm rain, which represent the specification of heavy rain. For tourism the value of day’s precipitation at W5 mm represents a relevant value of a ‘‘really rainy day’’, conditions not pleasant for outdoor activities. For the period 1961–90, the results (precipitation W5 mm) show an amount of 17 days and for 2021–50 only 14 days. In general, the results show that there is a decrease of precipitation in Palma of more than 10% for the entire year, and the decrease is higher in winter than in summer (Figure 8). In Figures 7 and 8, additional factors are considered, which are also representing the aesthetic and physical facet of climate in tourism. So, the number of days with sultriness (amount of vapor pressure W18 hPa) increases from 55 to 84. The amount of foggy days show no change and also the days with high amount of clouds (more than

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Figure 4. Differences (June, July, and August) of PET for Europe (Period 2091–2100 to 1991–2000)

5 octas) and high wind conditions (with wind speed W8 m/s) are not changing significantly. It can be assumed that the highest changes, based on the used A1B scenario, lie in the change of thermal bioclimate (expressed here with PET), in the changes of rain conditions, and in more warm-humid (sultry) days. The frequency diagrams show of course a very detailed picture of the examined parameters, for example PET (Figures 5 and 6) or precipitation (Figures 7 and 8), giving a more comprehensive and user-friendly picture for tourism operators, industry, and tourists. Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme for Mallorca To cover all the facets of climate in tourism, the most relevant factors of aesthetic, physical, and thermal components have been included. The CTIS was designed to integrate and simplify climate information for tourism (Lin

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Figure 5. Frequency Distribution of PET for Mallorca (1961–1990)

Figure 6. Frequency Distribution of PET for Mallorca (2021–2050)

and Matzarakis 2008; Matzarakis et al 2007). The CTIS contains detailed climate information that can be used by tourists to anticipate thermal comfort, aesthetical, and physical conditions for planning their holidays. The CTIS diagram includes the selected factors and criteria for the thermal,

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Figure 7. Frequency Distribution of Precipitation for Mallorca (1961–1990)

Figure 8. Frequency Distribution of Precipitation for Mallorca (2021–2050)

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aesthetic, and physical components of weather importance for tourists. Thermal components include thermal stress (PETW351C), cold stress (PETo01C), and thermally acceptable (PET between 18 and 291C). Aesthetic components include cloudiness (cloud cover o5 octas) and fog (relative humidity W93%). The physical factors include wind (wind speed W8 m/s), long rain (precipitation W5 mm), dry days (precipitation o1 mm), and sultriness (vapor pressure W18 hPa). Information for each component is presented as a percentage occurrence for 10-day periods (decades). The CTIS provides frequency classes and frequencies of extreme weather events for all seasons on a 10-day or monthly timescale (Matzarakis et al 2007). This method is preferred for analyzing climate stations or grid points. Since the results presented here are based on models and thus subject to the models’ uncertainties, a temporal resolution finer than 1 month is not considered to be useful. Each colored column describes the corresponding frequency of any parameter or factor. A frequency of 100% indicates that each day in a month is characterized by the respective condition listed on the right hand side. A frequency of 50% corresponds to an occurrence of the indicated condition during 15 days, 10% to 3 days of the considered month, etc. Considering the second row, heat stress occurs from June to September with an average frequency between 20 and 40% meaning that approximately 6–12 days are characterized by heat stress. The CTIS for Palma de Mallorca for the periods 1961–90 and 2021–50 are shown in Figures 9 and 10. The results show that the expected changes are in the days with thermal acceptability, increase in heat stress and sultriness conditions. Marginal changes in cold stress conditions and fewer changes in all the other parameters and factors are depicted. The information provided by the CTIS allows not only climatic destination analysis to be conducted; additional information based on regional climate modeling can determine possible changes and, in discussion with specific scientific disciplines, actions can be taken. In addition, specific kinds of tourism possibilities based on CTIS can be accessed, quantified, and periods with occurrences of specific extremes (for example, heat waves or periods of strong wind) can be detected. This way, both tourists and the tourism industry can be prepared and adapted in order to avoid negative implications. The maps and figures shown above give a clear and detailed picture of present and expected conditions for climate change in tourism. Differences for any region of Europe can be extracted from the maps. The frequency diagram presents a very detailed picture about the temporal conditions (in a monthly resolution based on daily climate data) of the frequencies in an

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Figure 9. CTIS for Mallorca (1961–1990)

Figure 10. CTIS for Mallorca (2021–2050)

amount of days. The CTIS gives integral and user-friendly information of the most relevant climate facets and factors in tourism and builds the basis of the climatic quantification of a tourism destination. CTIS can be produced very easily with relevant data from weather services or climate networks. Software modules, such as RayMan or CTIS, exist and are freely available to produce the information needed. Data can be demanded and relevant results can be produced in order to provide the information in mass media or in main places or information screens in tourism locations (Zaninovic´ and Matzarakis 2009). Required data for CTIS can also be obtained from regional climate models, giving destinations the possibility to prepare for future climate conditions (Matzarakis 2006). Adaptation Possibilities However, the results only quantify the changes and do not cover or show any possibilities for mitigation and adaptation. Because tourism areas are

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generally more accurately analyzed at the local than at the global level, some adaptive measures are applicable for improving the thermal comfort of tourists. Since air temperature and humidity cannot be changed or modified from the climatological perspective, wind speed and global radiation are two important factors for tourists adapting to the changing climate. First, the global radiation can be modified by producing shade in tourism areas, for tourists spending their time in sunny or shady conditions. For this purpose, the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt), which includes the global radiation, reflexion of solid surfaces, thermal radiation of solid surfaces, and the longwave radiation of the atmosphere is modified for simulations of thermal bioclimate. For someone who is indoors, the mean radiant temperature is at the same level as the air temperature. For someone standing in the sun at a beach, the mean radiant temperature can reach values that are more than 301C higher than the air temperature (Ta). The mean radiant temperature builds one of the most relevant parameters influencing thermal bioclimate during summer. The simulations have been made for air temperature being equal to the mean radiant temperature in order to validate the highest influences of global radiation. Figure 11 shows the PET distribution for the period 1961– 90 and 2021–50, and in the condition, where mean radiant temperature is at the same level like obvious air temperature. A clear shifting of the PET conditions to higher PET values is shown for 2021–50. The PET simulations with Ta ¼ Tmrt show a decrease in the high temperature conditions and an increase in the light cold stress and thermal comfort conditions. For warm conditions, it can be assumed that the reduction of global radiation produces a more appropriate climate for tourists protecting them from heat stress. In this context, it has to be mentioned that the reduction of global radiation is followed by a reduction of the UV-radiation and protection of tourists. This can be achieved by the use of umbrellas or big-leaf trees producing shadow during summer and allowing the sun to pass through during the winter. The second possibility is a light modification of the wind in terms of reducing or increasing it by 1 m/s. The results are shown in Figure 12: an increase of the wind produces a decrease in heat stress during summer; a decrease of the wind by 1 m/s results in an increase in heat stress. So, a light modification of wind is very valuable in terms of adaptation of people spending their time at the coast. For cold conditions this effect is different, and a reduction of wind speed decreases cold stress and an increase of wind speed makes the thermal comfort conditions more uncomfortable. Both possibilities show that the modification of global radiation, which can be done with simple measures like green areas and tree plantings, build an

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Figure 11. Frequency Distribution of PET (1961–1990 and 2021–2050)

Figure 12. Frequency Distribution of PET (1961–1990 and 2021–2050). The graph incorporates wind speed modifications of 71 m/s

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adaptation possibility for the creation of more comfortable conditions for humans during tourism in other warmer climates than at home. Reductions in wind speed can be done by specific trees; an increase in wind speed in screen level can be achieved by planting trees with a high crown area. The results shown here are examples. They cover only a small part of adaptation possibilities and are focused on micro and local climatic possibilities. Based on Scott et al (2009), adaptation possibilities in the tourism industry are comprised of a complex mix of adaptations undertaken by diverse stakeholders at a range of different spatial and temporal scales. Scott et al (2009) propose adaptation measures which are sensitive to climate, have a high or low variability, and can be changed. Here included is the need for coping strategies that affect diverse kinds of tourism. For example, sun, sand, and sea tourism is more affected or more depending on climate change than urban tourism. Included is also the adaptive capacity of tourists with a high potential and a low potential for resorts and tourism operators. An additional factor is the response to climate changes, where, for instance, marketing can react fast or changes in destinations can be applied in a short time, but responses take a very long time for investments in infrastructure and/or policy issues. Finally, several types of adaptation have to be considered, from behavioral (like adjusting clothing changing activity, adjustment of visit time of a destination, or changing the destination) to technical possibilities (like snowmaking, air conditioning to shore defense actions, from desalination to management possibilities including pricing, marketing, and product/market diversification or relocation). An adaptation possibility for a specific region does not have to be applicable for another region. The micro and local climate can have different (valley winds or urban climate formation) influences on adaptation and mitigation possibilities. Further research on climate change and tourism should be emphasized in the quantification of climate and climate extremes in an interdisciplinary manner, including the private sector and nongovernmental organizations. Several effects of climate change should be discussed which consider the uncertainties of climate and other modeling limitations.

CONCLUSION As discussed in this chapter, the adaptation possibilities to weather, climate, and climate extremes are manifold. Weather and climate are not the same;

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weather and extreme events have short-term impacts, whereas the climate has longterm consequences. Based on climate records and weather forecasts, tourism (from the side of tourists and the industry) can benefit. The question is not only how climate change affects tourism, but also how tourism affects climate change. The former influences the latter, but conversely tourism contributes 5% to total CO2 emissions. Most areas of the world will be affected by climate change, and tourism numbers are likely to change because of unpleasant conditions for tourists or damage created by climate change and other related impacts. Popular areas like the Mediterranean will not be visited as frequently because of heat stress during summer months or drought and related water shortage. Further, extreme events like hurricanes can damage infrastructure and influence tourism supply. Climate acts not only as a resource for driving tourism, but can also have adverse effects for tourism, in the case of extreme events and other related issues like damages. Weather and climate are important factors in tourism, which influence its other factors. Climate is usually described by air temperature and rain conditions and sometimes also by the number of sunshine hours at a location. The data or conditions provided here are presented in a monthly resolution, but weather and climate have a high monthly variability. Nevertheless, some parameters like air temperature or rain are less representative in the spatial and temporal variability of a region and do not cover all the facets of climate. For an integral assessment of climate (and weather) for tourism, several issues in terms of mean, extremes, and frequencies can be included for climate information. This can be in the quantification of pleasant and unpleasant conditions for tourists in terms of thermal comfort or discomfort, rain conditions, dividing them into several classes but also snow conditions. Fog and wind can also generate relevant factors. All this can be included in an information scheme presenting the climate information in an easily understandable manner for end users. Specific factors relevant to a region can be included or not. Based on the existing climate information and with consideration of the climate simulation of regional models, adaptation possibilities can be constructed. Climate adaptation can be performed where tourism takes place, starting from the initial decision making that takes place at the origin, right through to the arrival back home from the destination. But at the origin the adaptation is more a mitigation issue. The adaptation in tourism areas can be influenced by behavior and infrastructure measures. Tourism authorities can also play an important role in providing information and protection measures for tourists and infrastructure. This can be done by measurements and simulations based

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on climate scenarios, such as the examples presented in this chapter. Interdisciplinary approaches from regional to local planning, architecture, and medicinal climatology (spa resorts) can be helpful and provide valuable information for tourism. Adaptation measures do not have to be complex and expensive as shown in the examples by planting relevant trees that can provide UV reduction and reduce thermal stress for humans. On the other hand, a small modification in wind conditions can modify the thermal bioclimate and reduce thermal stress during summer. The possibilities are manifold and require the cooperation of science and tourism authorities and industry, including not only climate facets of tourism but also the economic sectors.

Acknowledgments Thanks to Christina Endler and Olaf Matuschek for preparation of the data and the creation of maps and figures.

Chapter 15

CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM IN THE EASTERN BALTIC SEA REGION Timofey Agarin European Center for Minority Issues, Germany

Jens Jetzkowitz Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research, Germany

Andreas Matzarakis University of Freiburg, Germany

Abridgement: The chapter discusses the effects of climate change on tourism development in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania by combining these countries into a single Eastern Baltic Sea Region. The chapter explores the current situation and investigates the trends that will affect the economic development if the present climate conditions are situated in historical context. The first part discusses how destinations can be better managed if they are informed by the scholarship on ecological modernization and updated by a coevolutionary approach to climate change. This discussion proceeds with an analysis of the impact climate change has on tourism following different scenarios of current and future climate conditions. The development of tourism in the Baltic countries is then assessed with references to sustainable development. Overall the chapter demonstrates how destinations can cope with the changing preferences of tourists even in the face of highly unpredictable climatic developments. Keywords: climatology; ecological modernization; coevolution; tourism development; Baltic States

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 261–281 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003018

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INTRODUCTION Over the past decades, the discourse on climate change increasingly embraced the rhetoric of re-adaptation of economic growth and industrial development to the new environmental challenges. The efforts to combine economic rationale with an ecological ethos were warmly greeted by scholars and practitioners alike and became widely known as ecological modernization. Originally introduced in the early 80s, ecological modernization came to signify the policy approaches aimed at reducing economic scarcity, while at the same time correcting the environmental impact of contemporary practices of production and consumption (Prittwitz 1993; Simonis 1989). While industrial production is undoubtedly the most complex issue with regard to climate change, consumption inevitably exercises a similarly significant impact on ecological change in nature. Therefore, it is remarkable that for a long time the literature on tourism development failed to tackle the issues related to the impacts of climate change on tourism and relate these to broader debates on ecological modernization. Being recognized as an important industry of today’s economy, tourism considerably affects the social, political, and economic status of the receiving regions and in turn is determined by the weather conditions. Early climate impact research already drew attention to the possible consequences of climate change on tourist flows (Wall and Badke 1994), but it was only in 2003 that the international community addressed the relationship of tourism and climate change in depth. The ‘‘First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism’’ in Djerba, Tunisia, drew attention explicitly to the strategies available for international tourism to respond to climate change and mitigate its contribution (Matzarakis and de Freitas 2001; Matzarakis et al 2004, 2007; WTO 2007). Needless to say, it is difficult, if not impossible, to predict whether and how tourist flows will change under the conditions of human-induced climate change. While human influence on the environment, and especially climate change, is beyond reasonable doubt (IPCC 2007a), humanity must be prepared to confront its impact on climate in the long run. Inevitably, tourist flows will change according to economic opportunities and social expectations of tourists. Just as important for these changes are the policies regulating travel and most crucially anticipating their impact on climatic conditions. Because future tourism development is predicated upon the contingency of social, political, economic, and climatic opportunities, the research on tourism development to date has avoided any commitment to a single concept of sustainable development. Previous research has underlined

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that there are different, partially self-excluding options for development of solutions that can lead to sustainable use of destinations (Clarke 1997; Farrell and Twinning-Ward 2004; Hunter 1997; Simpson 2001; Stauffacher 2006). This chapter attempts a first step in this direction by discussing tourism development in the Eastern Baltic Sea Region (EBSR) and outlining the options for the industry to cope with the alteration of climatic conditions. This chapter’s analysis starts with the basic assumption that inbound tourism is highly dependent on perceived climatic conditions and that these can change. The chapter unpacks neither the nexus of relationships between climate and tourism, nor that of social and economic relations embedded in this industry. Instead, its development is addressed as a social practice with either desirable or nondesirable consequences, which are either avoidable or unavoidable (Urry 2003). From this epistemic background, the discussion of tourism development strategies is embedded in the corpus of knowledge about the relations between climate change and tourist movements and is applied to the EBSR countries, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. An outline of ecological modernization, as is interpreted in the scholarship on coevolution in the first part of the chapter, allows an analysis of the Baltic area from the perspective of tourism climatology in the second part. Here different scenarios of current and future climate development are presented, which are likely to impact tourism development. It is from this background that the chapter addresses tourism development and policy in the Baltic States. The analysis of the current situation and investigation of the trends for future development is then placed in its historical context. In conclusion, both analyses are controlled for their potential to contribute to sustainable destination development. This allows the chapter to sketch different strategic options for future tourism development in the EBSR, arguing in favor of a multistakeholder decision-making process ensuring an appropriate response to the anticipated climate change. In this sense, the chapter outlines how destinations could cope with the changing tourist flows even in the face of highly unpredictable developments, such as climatic alterations. Ecological Modernization and Climate Change It is publicly acknowledged today that climate change is a fact and it is mainly caused by human behavior (IPCC 2007a). However, although climate change is mainly conceived in terms of changing weather conditions over a long period of time, it will also impact peoples’ incentives to travel to their chosen destinations. The second order changes, meaning those

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resulting not from direct human action but mediated through other factors, in this case through climate change will inevitably impact tourists’ preferences when it comes to experiences of biodiversity, estimations of attractiveness of nature and landscapes, considerations with regard to supply of fresh water, as well as the predictability of weather events. Although critical scrutiny of research on climate change reveals that one cannot potentially anticipate neither its extent, nor the complexity of its impact on a range of social processes, there is no room for pessimism either. By adopting an ecological modernization perspective, this chapter makes clear how climate change can be used positively in developing tourism in the EBSR. The literature on ecological modernization has so far addressed the adaptation of economic processes to the needs of societies, as well as to the commitment for mitigating global warming. In doing so, however ecological modernization sits in the larger debate on society: nature coevolution. Although initially forming a part of biosciences to describe selective pressures exhorted on each other’s development by the biotic agents (Thompson 1994), the term coevolution came to be more widely used to describe correlated changes between the human, including social, and nonhuman, including natural, worlds (Jetzkowitz 2007; Norgaard 1994). A coevolutionary approach allows one to amalgamate the perspectives on social and climate change and to sketch the strategies for the anticipatory adaptation to changes in the circumstances, which are likely to occur. That is to say, coevolutionary research allows to flesh out the approaches toward sustainable development in general, and tourism in particular, by prompting the awareness of knowledge about the interactions between businesses on the one hand, and their societal and ecological surroundings on the other. As such, the coevolutionary approach allows researchers and practitioners alike to balance the outcomes of anticipated activities. While coevolutionists consider their approach to planning to be a necessary supplement for deeper understanding of sustainable development, they neither treat it as a figure of an abstract discourse, nor anticipate it as a mere alternative to current practices. Instead, coevolutionists conceive of sustainability as a regulative idea that becomes reality only if those shaping societal and economic knowledge are fully aware of the anticipated consequences of their actions (Costanza, Cumberland, Daly, Goodland and Norgaard 1997). Addressing environmental conditions on a par with social processes that will be likely deployed for mitigation of climatic changes reveals two major implications for assessment of structural and functional impact of climatic change. First, an analysis of strategic options for shaping the future requires basic knowledge about possible environmental changes. This needs to be

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complemented by an outline of anticipated actions that could be expected from societies coping with the ecological change. Societies thus need to be understood in terms of populations with specific patterns of interaction, routines, and traditions, forming important context for individuals’ calculating the possibilities of future development (Fischer-Kowalski and Weisz 1999; Parsons 1977). Second, a coevolutionary approach departs from treating society–nature interactions in static terms or as one-sided relationship, and emphasizes that any new situation is likely to generate nonanticipated opportunities for social learning processes. In sum, the coevolutionary approach does not treat the effects of technological and institutional development as conceptually separable outcomes of innovation in just one area of human activity. Instead, it treats all developments only with respect to their overall cumulative effect on change of potential risks. Of course, one might contend that the coevolutionary approach to climate change tows the conservative line of avoiding risks at all costs. In part, this is due to the fact that developments that need be considered to arrive at a balanced prediction of cumulative effects are hard to calculate. To avoid these pitfalls, this chapter links sustainable destination management to overall societal development. The coevolutionary approach does not treat climate change as a factor exogenous to and determining social behavior, but sees humans as participant actors who develop strategies of coping with changes and impact the process of change. Climate change is likely to increase the associated ecological risks, but is also likely to reveal novel mitigation strategies while putting off some of the previously developed approaches. In this sense, a coevolutionary approach carries good and bad messages to policy makers working toward mitigation of climate impact on societies. The bad news is that the current policies seeking to improve the environmental situation without challenging the assumptions about human-nature interface inherently reproduces social practices, which have proven to have a destructive impact on environment. In other words, if one is to treat climate change as an outcome of previous social practices than any modification of existing routines could do nothing but perpetuate current problems. On the positive side, however, the development of environmentally friendly economic practices in industries such as tourism will result in a positive impact on other areas of social activity. Therefore, economic processes embedded in the discourse on tourism development and destination management need to assess a range of the aspects that inform preferences of tourists when it comes to issues related to their choice of destination.

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Policy makers’ discourse on tourism development and destination management has increasingly emphasized financial benefits resulting from incoming tourism (WTO 2007). Unlike other sectors of the economy, the tourism industry does not produce material goods. However, like other service industries, it seeks to attract consumer by offering ‘‘the best value for money’’. This defining aspect of this industry leads scholarly literature on the issue to treat tourism as an important asset for economic development and growth of wellbeing across societies experiencing scarcity of other resources (Azarya 2004). Similar to other service industries tourism could profit from streamlining toward specific goals, such as development and application of innovative technologies, improvement of techniques, redistribution of know-how, and the like (Decelle 2004). Therefore, it is unsurprising that tourism development and destination management literatures promote understanding of destinations as economic actors sui generis, finding themselves in constant competition for clients. Ecological modernization theory has offered a possible solution to the dilemmas of destinations: increasing profitability while at the same time avoiding serious environmental impacts triggered by increasing arrivals (Hajer 1995; Mol and Spaargaren 2000; Spaargaren and Mol 1992). An orthodox theory of ecological modernization suggests that policy regulations help solve environmental problems, while at the same time making industries more competitive (Simonis 1989; Spaargaren and Mol 1992). This view can be particularly useful to generate an understanding of how destinations could adapt to yet unclear consequences of shifts in tourist preferences in the face of climate change. The ecological modernization literature addressing market driven incentives to implement environmentally friendly innovations provides an additional nodal point to study tourism development (Jackson and Roberts 1997; Ja¨nicke 2008; Murphy and Gouldson 2000). In most cases, it is argued that mitigation strategies encouraging technological and organizational change blend into environmental discourse for instrumental purposes, and hence fail to support innovations that would make the industry more environmentally friendly in the longer run. Ecological modernization theory suggests that potential growth in ecological commitment of industries is unlikely should there be no longterm economic incentives for action (Mol 1995, 2001). In many industries, tourism included, ecological reason has begun to challenge the dominant economic rationale. Underlying the same market competition mechanisms as other ‘‘products’’, destinations compete for potential customers and thus are unwilling to experiment with technologies and services that have not proven to bring economic gain. The ecological

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modernization debate can inform the expectations of technological and operational improvements that literature on mitigation of climate change advocates so strongly. Even when there are no binding regulations on tourism development, climate change in itself provides sufficiently pressing incentive to market and manage destinations in an environmentally equitable manner. To an extent, destination re-branding as suiting particular environmental expectations follows the same economic rationale, which is common in the tourism management literature to date (Balakrishan 2009). However, destination management seems to be at odds with the ecological modernization theory insofar as destination re-branding neither challenges environmentally unfriendly practices, nor aims at creating policy regulations to mitigate environmental impacts of tourism (Mol 1995). This chapter contends that from the coevolutionary point of view, policy-driven regulations have little effect in terms of causing ecological behavior to appear in the circumstances where sanctions are likely to be avoided. Climate change, on the other hand, is a constraint for destination management that cannot be left unaddressed. As such, it is bound to provide local stakeholders, particularly local entrepreneurs, civil society activists, and regional policy makers, with novel, and, importantly, unexpected incentives that have not yet been incorporated into the ecological modernization literature, but have been broadly debated from a coevolutionary perspective. The constraints of climate change have already resulted in growing attention being paid to multistakeholder solutions, particularly by those scholars and activists favoring a deliberative approach to policy making (Dryzek 1997). However, even such solutions have been continuously accused of tokenism for failing to revisit the (nonrealistic) expectation of potentially unlimited economic growth (Norgaard 1995). In this respect, coevolutionists argue that ecological modernization fails to provide anything but partial solutions to hotspots of environmental decline or develop supplies of income where there is lack of resources in the first place. Among the issues featuring in this debate are the examples of continuous use of natural resources for short-term profit and/or immediate monetary gains, such as where land use is at odds with ecosystem preservation or when technological development in a manufacturing industry does not spill over into technological development in the extracting sector of economy. Coevolutionists for their part argue that greater integration of decisionmaking processes, along the entire line from recovery of resources to communication about their value, will gain greater importance when nonhuman factors will increasingly constrain the existing social practices. For example, changes in climatic conditions will make it impossible to continue with the

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destination management as is carried out today and will inevitably force stakeholders to undertake longterm planning of destination development. However, as is well established, climate change is taking place. Hence, coevolutionary scholars do not need to wait for climate change to exercise a profound impact on humans, but can already envisage the alternative social practices today. Climate Change and Tourism The idea of limitless growth hampers the tourism industry’s capacity to change its modus operandi to the same degree, as does the idea of climate determinism. This posits climate to be not only a framework condition for human existence, but as a central determinant for individual and societal wellbeing. Some scholars subscribing to climate determinism treat weather conditions as the natural limitations for the human activity and for potential intellectual developments, suggesting that climate change will decisively impact human development (von Storch and Stehr 2000). All estimations of future natural developments resulting from human actions must remain tentative in the face of unpredictability of complex relationships among human activity, its impact on climatic conditions, and the response in terms of natural events. Issues such as regional competition for cheaper energy supplies, conflicts among states over water resources, and social instability resulting from economic volatility are examples of this. Such issues already prompt tourists to investigate destinations that are more secure, requiring changes in marketing of resorts engaged in such conflicts (Hall 2005; Laws 1995; Ritchie and Crouch 2003). In addition, the perception of cultural and natural heritage of a destination, availability and quality of local infrastructure, strength of the origin economy, and socioeconomic push- and pull-factors, all need to be factored into the analyses of tourism development in any single region (Ritchie and Crouch 2003; Urry 2002b). Taking these aspects of tourism development into account, de Freitas (2003) suggests that human perceptions of climatic conditions result largely from individual sensitivity to a range of climate variables. Some of these are ‘‘physical’’, such as rain and snow; others are ‘‘thermal’’, such as air temperature and other synergetic effects; while some are ‘‘aesthetic’’, such as clear blue skies (Matzarakis 2006). Although continuously emphasizing a broad range of predictors, the scholarship on tourism development is persistent in pointing to weather stability as an important factor in this industry. Quite naturally, different weather conditions allow for different

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activities (Smith 1990), prompting the assessment of tourists’ preferences for destinations, based on Mieczkowski’s (1985) tourism climate index. However, as Limb and Spellman (2001) demonstrate, neither the temperature, nor this index provide a full account of individual preferences with regard to the choice of destination. The studies relying on air temperature alone have failed to predict tourism demand for the development of certain destinations, while human perception of a comfortable climate has become increasingly popular as predictors of tourist behavior (Go¨ssling and Hall 2006b; Matzarakis 2006). The increasingly interdisciplinary analysis of climate change has resulted in a range of forecasts about the anticipated changes in tourism development. In an effort to increase the predictability of tourist behavior, some previous studies (Amelung et al 2007; Scott, McBoyle and Schwartzentruber 2004) use indices that bring together the human mechanisms of thermoregulation and the circulatory system, making sense of relations between individual thermal comfort and health. The assessment of the consequences thermal comfort has on the comfort perception of tourists at the destination is often done without including several important parameters, such as short- and long-wave radiation, wind-shield factor and the like. Notably, the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2000, 2001) reports the change in climate using a simple index, constructed of the data on air temperature and relative humidity. The panel limits the validity of its findings by excluding meteorological and thermophysiological variables, such as wind speed, radiation fluxes, data on perspiration and body coverage, although there are a host of synoptic, climatological and astronomical data to amend the findings appropriately (Matzarakis et al 2007; Verein Deutscher Ingeneure 1998). In order to avoid the pitfalls of earlier research, this chapter explores the perceptions of the atmospheric environment by humans through analyses of a thermal index based on the energy balance of the human body, the physiologically equivalent temperature or PET (see Matzarakis et al 1999; Ho¨ppe 1999). The PET allows one to use a biometeorological and tourism climatological perspectives on the thermal perceptions to address several shortcomings in the estimates of the previous studies (Verein Deutscher Ingeneure 1998). In order to estimate the median temperature equivalents, comparable physiological temperature is calculated for an average person, characterized by a work metabolism of 80 W of light activity in addition to basic metabolism, amended by 0.9 clo of heat resistance as a result of clothing. Controlling for the range of temperatures that might occur in various environments, PET calculations are based on an assumption for the

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indoor reference climate: Mean radiant temperature equals air temperature (Tmrt ¼ Ta); air velocity (wind speed) is fixed at v ¼ 0.1 m/s; water vapor pressure is set to 12 hPa (approximately equivalent to a relative humidity of 50% at Ta ¼ 201C). Hence, PET reflects on potential human wellbeing by taking several crucial factors into consideration. It accounts for thermal complex, which comprises the meteorological elements having thermophysiological effects on human wellbeing. The PET allows for a reasonable margin of probability to speculate anticipated climate change. From the tourism climatological perspective, the PET is accepted as an equivalent of the air temperature required to reproduce the core and skin temperatures of an average person in a standardized indoor setting. The definite advantage of the PET is that it assesses weather conditions through the lens of physiological sensation at the expense of physical perception and psychological cognition, allowing the judgment of thermal wellbeing. In other words, PET permits the analysis of the relationship between both the atmospheric environment and individual thermal comfort. The computation of PET includes the following steps. First, the calculation of the thermal conditions of the body with Munich Energy Balance Model for Individuals is made for a given combination of meteorological parameters. Second, the calculated values for mean skin temperature and core temperature are inserted into the model and solve the energy balance equation system for the air temperature Ta (with v ¼ 0.1 m/s, VP ¼ 12 hPa and Tmrt ¼ Ta). The air temperature resulting from these calculations is equivalent to PET that allows for the evaluation of thermal conditions in a physiologically significant manner. With respect to this, Matzarakis and Mayer (1996) transferred ranges of Predicted Mean Vote for thermal perception and grade of physiological stress on human beings (Fanger 1972) into corresponding PET ranges (Table 1). The PET can be calculated with the radiation and bioclimatic model RayMan, suitable for adding up of the radiation fluxes and thermal indices, such as PET in simple and complex environments (Matzarakis et al 2007). The historical data used in this study have been retrieved from the CRU CL 1.0 historical dataset, containing 0.51 1961–90 mean monthly gridded data, assembled by the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK (New, Hulme and Jones 1999, 2000). The CRU CL 1.0 gridbased dataset is based on the dataset of 1961–90 climatologically normals, which was produced by numerous weather stations around the world. The station data were interpolated to obtain a 0.51 latitude  0.51 longitude grid-based dataset, covering the entire landmass of the earth except

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Table 1. PET for Different Grades of Thermal Perception and Physiological Stress PET 41C 81C 131C 181C 231C 291C 351C 411C

Thermal Perception Very cold —————————————— Cold —————————————— Cool —————————————— Slightly cool —————————————— Comfortable —————————————— Slightly warm —————————————— Warm —————————————— Hot —————————————— Very hot

Grade of Physiological Stress Extreme cold stress —————————————— Strong cold stress —————————————— Moderate cold stress —————————————— Slight cold stress —————————————— No thermal stress —————————————— Slight heat stress —————————————— Moderate heat stress —————————————— Strong heat stress —————————————— Extreme heat stress

Source: Matzarakis and Mayer (1996). Internal heat production: 80 W, heat transfer resistance of the clothing (clothing insulation): 0.9 clo.

Antarctica (ocean space was not included). The mean monthly data of air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed of each grid of the globe have been included from the historical datasets. The mean monthly sunshine fraction has been manipulated to allow for cloud cover during the calculation of the global radiation. The mean radiant temperature of each grid of the globe has been calculated on the basis of the possible global radiation and the mean monthly cloud cover with help of the RayMan model. The mean radiant temperature and the PET have been calculated in one run based on the given input parameters––air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover (Matzarakis et al 2007). The dataset of future climatic conditions was based on an integration of the Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 model enforced with the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Johns, Gregory, Ingram et al 2003). The HadCM3 model produces gridded data with a spatial resolution of 2.51 latitude  3.751 longitude, which is significantly coarser than that of the CRU 1.0 dataset. The HadCM3 dataset consists of monthly averages for

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four time slices: 1961–90, 2010–39, 2040–69, and 2070–99. As a result, the climate projections data are uncertain to a marginal degree (Amelung 2006; Hulme, Jenkins, Lu et al 2002). All variables that were needed for the analysis of PET were available from the CRU 1.0 and HadCM3 datasets (air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) or could be calculated from them (for example, by deriving the mean radiant temperature). The calculated PET grid values for existing datasets have been processed using empirical downscaling in order to achieve a higher spatial resolution. PET has been used as dependent variable. Its values have been recalculated into a higher spatial resolution (1 km) through the use of geostatistical methods: independent variables included latitude, longitude, and elevation (Matzarakis et al 1999). For this purpose, this analysis deploys the digital elevation data of the GLOBE dataset (Hastings, Dunbar, Elphingstone et al 1995). The PET calculation for the scenarios listed is the same for the historical datasets, as well as for the present and the future. The resultant computation shows the spatial distribution of PET across Europe for the month of July between 1961 and 1990. Figure 1 clearly indicates that during the summer months, especially in July, thermal comfort was attainable in the countries of northern Europe only, as well as in the

Figure 1. Spatial Distribution of PET for Europe, July 1961–90

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high-lying areas such as the Alps. At the same time, along the northern areas of the Mediterranean, PET values range from 301C and higher, suggesting that extreme heat stress occurs across the most of the area. For the countries to the south of the Mediterranean, PET values are even higher, starting with 351C, the temperature qualified as ‘‘strong’’ and ‘‘extreme’’ heat stress (Matzarakis, Georgiadis and Rossi 2007). Taking advantage of the information on climate perceptions as is reflected in PET, one can make clear predictions of the human behavior concerning thermal comfort issues with reference to tourism development in the future. Some destination managers have already asserted that in the future a destination boasting a greater range of weather conditions to allow a variety of touristic activities will be able to sustain its leading market position over all other competing destinations (Go¨ssling, Peeters, Ceron et al 2005; Hamilton, Maddison and Tol 2005a, 2005b; Maddison 2001). Particularly, the complex relationships between the thermal factors that determine tourist flows make PET an appropriate index for estimation of the influence perceptions resulting from the climate change will have on destinations. This tourism-climatological analysis of the EBSR pays attention to the thermal complex measured by PET and includes meteorological factors such as air temperature and humidity, wind velocity, and short- and long-wave radiation. All these are acknowledged to affect humans thermophysiologically and also impact individual choice of destinations (Hunter 1997; Jetzkowitz 2007; WTO 2007).

THE EASTERN BALTIC SEA REGION The advance of climate change will play a decisive and, what is important here, a more predictable role than any other human-induced modification in environmental conditions across the range of the world’s regions. While the redirection of traditional tourist flows from southern Europe toward northern Europe have been the focus of some tourism climatological research, EBSR has been largely neglected in the studies of climate impact on tourism development. Relatively small states Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania cover the territory of approx 175,104 km2 and are home to some 7.2 million people. The climatic changes to affect Europe as a whole in the coming decades are going to cause alterations in regional weather conditions and, as a result thereof, will change the structure of tourist flows in the EBSR. The Baltic States are located between 59.5 and 53.541N on the

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eastern coast of Baltic Sea and are likely to become one of the few regions in Europe where climate change may result in advantageous changes in tourist flows. Tourism in the Eastern Baltic Region Over the past two decades, the Baltic States have undergone a precipitous transition from Soviet socialism to liberal democracies, allowing for much broader tourism development. While the Soviet centralized economy planned effectively everything, including the recreation of its citizens, the development of tourism at that time remained very limited. However, it provided for stable tourist flows, considerable investment funds into required infrastructure, and promotion of the Baltic republics as one single destination region. Effectively, it was on this basis that the Baltic States’ tourist industries were able to develop facilities that had previously catered to the tourists from the East into resorts that would appeal to western European tourists after regaining independence in 1991. In the years following independence, the Baltic States experienced a significant shift in tourist flows. Now, tourists from the former Soviet Union stayed away due to lack of cash, and were slowly substituted by groups from Western European countries, who brought much-needed hard currency with them. Naturally, the capital cities were the major attraction; providing both the necessary infrastructure and services amid the turmoil of economic transition. To an extent, the cash flow was sufficient not only to help the initial tourism development, but also (as in Estonia) to provide a crucial impetus for economic growth altogether (Worthington 2001). Indications that the Baltic States were to join the European Union (EU) also provided a powerful attraction for investors in the tourism industry. The peripheral geographic position of the Baltic States and their meager international connections limited the opportunities for international tourism, until low-cost airlines such as Easyjet and Ryanair moved into the Baltics in 2004 and local air-carriers increased connections to many western European regions. EU accession secured economic investment for the Baltic States, but also steady streams of tourists from southern and central Europe, complementing visits by the Scandinavian, German, and Russian tourists who were traditionally attracted to the region (Table 2). In the wake of the EU accession, all three states enforced policies for tourism development to consolidate strategies for the years to come. This legislation was elaborated with assistance of, or directly by, the Ministries of Economics in the respective states, indicating a direct prioritization of

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Table 2. Major Tourist Markets for the Baltic States by Accommodated Tourists (in ‘000) Origin

Other Baltic States Germany Finland United Kingdom Sweden Russian Federation Norway Denmark From other states Total

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

N

%

N

%

N

%

76 109 799 62 108 53 41 15 185 1,453

5 8 55 4 7 4 3 1 13 100

126 123 90 56 45 40 20 15 209 730

17 17 12 8 6 6 3 2 28 100

26 123 22 21 5 53 4 6 209 473

6 26 5 4 1 11 1 1 44 100

Source: Based on the information provided by the Statistics Departments, Governments of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (2005).

tourism as an important branch of the economy. All in all, incoming tourism had developed constantly over the years since independence was regained, contributing greatly to the development of the service sector, diversifying the occupational structure in all three countries, and exercising considerable impact on the GDP growth. The overall positive impact of tourism on the economic transition of the Baltic economies exerted the most profound effect on the infrastructural development of the metropolitan areas. While the transfer of tourismmanagement technologies from the West might have reached the capitals and the major towns, crucial facilities for accommodating the incoming tourists are still absent in the rural areas, as they were in the earlier stages of transition (Juska, Poviliunas and Pozzuto 2005). Where development of urban tourism followed different patterns throughout the region, the countryside in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania proceeded down the same road: service, infrastructure, and crucially, and accessibility ensured that areas outside of the towns remained of limited attraction to foreign tourists. In contrast to urban areas, where only a minority of tourists stay longer than a weekend, although even this secures constant revenues for local entrepreneurs, areas in the countryside are in much greater need of financial support and make much wider use of the capital left by the occasional tourists (Juska et al 2005; Mu¨ristaja 2003). That is why particularly tourism

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along transportation routes, in the national parks, and in remotely located countryside areas has a significant impact on the development of facilities outside of the capital areas. Difficult to access, badly managed, scarce in accommodation, such locations offer mainly access to pristine nature and cultural-historical heritage, both of which require major investment. However, some of the tourism facilities have effectively been restyled to present the countryside as an alternative to urban, vibrant, and cashintensive short-stay tourism, appealing to those seeking natural beauty, cultural landscapes with spacious plains, tree-covered marsh lands, and tranquil coastal line (Bunkse 1999). Agricultural and rural tourism are often seen as an object for conservation, resulting in limited opportunity for sustaining the economic development of these areas. Only a recent phenomenon here, agrotourism is still proving slow to develop, essentially resulting in further paucity of infrastructure and meager opportunities for locals to earn much needed cash. The potential of rural areas for incoming tourism and hence financial rejuvenation become particularly apparent after a series of minor investments resulted in growing numbers of arrivals to national parks and natural sights (Kaltenborn, Vistad and Stanaitis 2002; Taff 2005). While these might diversify the set of products offered to tourists by the region as a whole in the long run, there is a clear lack of strategic approach to tourism development. This ultimately requires a fundamental reconsideration of the role this industry will play once climatic change affects the region and will lead to change of the reasons for visitations. Climate Change Predictions for the Region PET allows one to simulate the changes in weather based upon the alterations in a range of constituent factors, indicating that climate change will significantly affect the EBSR (Table 3). These are remarkable when contrasted with the current distribution of PET for the EBSR, ranging from 15 to 211C. These temperatures indicate the levels of slight cold stress and thermal comfort in the thermophysiological terms. Based on the results of the climate scenarios calculated, the biggest change in thermal perception is an increase of 71C during the summer months. However, it falls short of reaching thermal stress levels for the domestic population or tourists, with the changes lying in the range of one to two thermophysiological strain levels (Matzarakis and Mayer 1996). This, however, does not preclude the occurrence of extreme weather events (heat waves, for example) in the future, which could affect people’s health, local perceptions of quality of life,

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Table 3. Seasonal PET for the EBSR for the Base (1961–90) and IPCC (2071–2100) Scenarios Base

A1F A2A B1A B2A

Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

6.7 15.3 0.9 6.9 0.5 8.1 3 10 3.4 11.3

6.3 0.4 12.7 5.1 11.9 4.2 9.9 2.8 10.1 2.2

19.9 13.4 28.1 18.7 26.5 18.4 24.9 16.5 24.8 17

6.2 1 12.8 7.6 11.2 6.6 9.3 4.1 9.7 5.2

and ultimately tourist visitations. While it is possible that the heat waves could affect people residing in the EBSR in the future, this would particularly hold true for the urban areas, where the urban heat island will be strengthened during summer nights. With respect to the tourism climatological aspects certain features, such as thermal comfort conditions, are likely to increase in the EBSR allowing greater possibilities for tourism and recreation. Thermal comfort builds one of the main factors in tourism and recreation, although there are also other important factors. These include sunshine duration, cloud coverage, and particularly the conditions of precipitation in the form of the sum and amount of days with high-duration rain (Matzarakis 2006). Various scenarios were used to determine the meteorological parameters needed to predict PET values. While the future climatic conditions cannot be predicted with any degree of confidence, one can certainly account for the possible distorting effects of socioeconomic and/or technological development, which determine the amounts of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change explored possible changes in socioeconomic conditions, technology transfer, globalization, equity in the world and population to develop a set of scenarios of expected climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, 2001). These allow the estimation of GHG emissions and its atmospheric concentrations to explore the response of the climate system. Among the four main Special Report on Emission Scenarios, the B scenarios tend to account for regional mitigations strategies and the A cases anticipate global

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actions to counter climate change. Of the scenarios used in the model, A1F and A2A represent cases of rapid climate change, while the B1A and B2A stand for more moderate levels of change. Specifically, A1F predicts changes in a world of rapid economic growth, where new and more efficient technologies will have been introduced rapidly; A2A presents a world with an emphasis on family values and local traditions; B1A anticipates dematerialization and introduction of clean technologies; and finally B2A expects an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability. (Figure 2) Over the years, research on climate change and tourism demonstrated ambivalent results. On the one hand, the studies suggest that a changing climate will influence destination choices (Bigano et al 2005; Maddison 2001;

Figure 2. Spatial Distribution of PET for Baltic Area for June, July, August 1961–90

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Lise and Tol 2002). On the other, however, not only the preference for destinations is likely to change, but also the preferences themselves (Hamilton et al 2005b). In general, scholars agree on the fact that the tourist movement will be considerably restructured under the conditions of climate change. The recent modeling studies have drawn the conclusion that climate change is expected to lead to a ‘‘poleward shift’’ of tourism (Agnew and Viner 2001). This will lead to increasing numbers of international arrivals in some of the northern countries, but it will similarly shift the travel patterns of the residents of the same regions. For example, as the summers in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are predicted to become warmer, many Balts will prefer to stay at home for their holidays. But so will many international tourists, who will travel to the EBSR from the Nordic countries that will likewise be affected by climate change. Relative to the baseline predicted without climate change, domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (Berritella, Bigano, Roson and Tol 2004; Hamilton 2005; Hamilton et al 2005a). In light of the coevolutionary approach, the impact of climate change on the future of tourism development in the EBSR should be assessed beyond the rim of this tentative outline. Several other criteria might be just as important for tourism. Sustained biodiversity and changes in the coastal areas are likely to result from the radical change in climate conditions around the ESBR. This in turn, is likely to reduce incentives for inbound tourists to extend the area of visitations beyond the urban areas in the Baltic States. An increasing temperature should be considered only as one criterion among others that could prompt tourists to rethink their travel choices in favor of the EBSR as a tourist destination. As the calculations show in the Table 3, the changes in PET for the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) will be significant when compared to the base data from the 1961–90. Within the given time scope, maximal and minimal PET are going to increase somewhere between 3 to 61C, irrespective of the scenario used. The scenario B, presuming that local action to tackle the impact of climate change will be taken, indicates the increase of mean temperatures from 6.3 to 101C, while the A scenarios, predicating global action suggest the increase of 121C during springs. Similarly, the increase of summer temperatures is expected to range from 20 to 281C, reaching critical levels for heat stress for the entire EBSR. The data illustrate clearly that the weather and climate in general are indeed just one factor amid others affecting tourists’ choices for the place of travel while other factors could be mobilized in the proactive destination management (Ritchie and Crouch 2003). From this perspective, a strategic approach to destination management could capitalize on this region’s clean

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environment as an asset and promote its image as a sustainable destination. A strategic approach to its management would start already with identification of the target groups attracted not to the existing natural resources of the region, but to products with a low carbon footprint available throughout the EBSR. The choice of a target group for tourism in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will need to focus on ‘‘the concept of yield to assess [tourists’] sustainability’’ (Becken and Simmons 2008), and develop options for tourists’ longterm sojourn and their choice for green products while in the region. From this background, a coevolutionary perspective allows one to conclude that the major priority of destination management in the EBSR lies with the promotion of prolonged stays for the tourists who are arriving in the region. In that case, tourists will be able to combine stays in the urban areas with trips into the countryside, the process that in turn will lead to development of new combinations of products attractive for additional visitations. Ultimately, if the impact of climate change on tourism in the EBSR is mitigated in a timely fashion, cooperation between providers of resources across the three states should gain priority (Bimonte 2008). Once the networking between the Baltic States is used as an asset to guarantee and support tourists’ access to infrastructural resources, the EBSR will have developed a sensible asset distinguishing it from other destinations with similar climatic conditions. It seems then that in order to provide for a reasonable balance of pull factors for tourism in the region, the rural alternative, historical, and cultural tourism must be developed, particularly by means of interstate cooperation. Furthermore, tourism management should also involve the coordination of rural and regional tourism throughout the Baltic States, specifically to the regions providing attractive resources for historical, cultural, and natural tourism. As can be observed to date, the overuse of resources in the capitals and towns has been at the expense of a balanced development of the regional economy, overemphasizing the sluggishness of the rural areas, and rendering them far less attractive for tourism, particularly outside of the warmer months of the year. While the weather conditions are likely to change in the course of the upcoming decade, so will the economic incentives for tourism development outside the urban areas.

CONCLUSION An overall trend observed in the tourism industry indicates a greater demand for small-scale, rural, and nature-related tourism (Lohmann and

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Aderhold 2009), suggesting significant opportunities for sustainable tourism development in the Baltic States as elsewhere. Timely compliance with global demands would increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of the region on the European tourism market, as well as improving the quality of life under conditions of sustainable development. It would also ensure that the expectations placed on the industry by Baltic tourism development strategies were met in the form of steady economic revenues, and, more decisively, would comply with Agenda 21 for the Travel and Tourism Industry, which stresses the mutual benefits of tourism in rural areas (World Travel and Tourism Council, World Tourism Organization and Earth Council 1996). The cross-disciplinary approach offered in this chapter provides a way of dealing with the fundamental problem human development faces with respect to uncertainty, as resulting from the unpredictable consequences of human actions. While analyzing decision making and particularly development of responses to change in natural conditions, social scientists are best advised to cooperate with representatives of generalized areas of social concern (Stauffacher 2006). However, the outline of sustainable tourism development in the three Baltic States only represents a first step in a policy process. From this chapter’s perspective, further, in-depth research is required on the effects of different scenarios of climate change and the impact it will have on opportunities for ecological modernization of the regional economies in general and tourism in particular. While, similarly to what one of the Baltic policy makers mentioned, the chapter places focus exclusively on the prospects of regional economic development, research on tourism development under the aegis of ecological modernization requires greater attention to the social processes underway in the societies in which the economic sector is embedded (Granovetter 1985). The next step of research will require consideration of the relationship between social and ecological systems in the region, and analyses of the strains environmental change has already placed on the economic opportunities of Baltic tourism entrepreneurs. This essential background information will ensure an accurate prediction of future developments of the Baltic tourism industry linked to inevitable climate change. So far, one can anticipate that tourism planning in the EBSR is likely to be economically successful and sustainable, if decision making follows the knowledge-based path and opt for specific solutions.

Chapter 16

LOGAN’S RUN California and Los Angeles in 2050 Ian Yeoman Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Mariska Wouters Local Government, New Zealand

Abridgement: Los Angeles and California are leading tourism brands and destinations, but what is the future given warmer climates, rising sea levels, water shortages, peak oil, and the continuing trend of urbanization? Studies predict that urban Los Angeles will have a climate that will be unbearable to future tourists and the rural landscape of California will undergo radical reshaping. Does this mean that Los Angeles will be akin to the fiction film Logan’s Run? This chapter considers metropolis Los Angeles and the Californian hinterland in 2050. It portrays the future as a reversal of fortunes where ecotourism is an exclusive experience for the mega rich and tourism for the middle classes is restricted to an urban environment and controlled mass tourism excursions. Keywords: science fiction; Los Angeles; urbanization; scenario

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 283–297 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003019

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INTRODUCTION California is the world’s ninth largest economy and an iconic tourism destination where Mickey Mouse, great wines, Hollywood, and possibly the best surfing in the world can be found. But what does the future hold given warmer climates, rising sea levels, water shortages, peak oil, and the continuing trend of urbanization? Los Angeles and California, as leading tourism brands and destinations, are interconnected and dependent upon each other, whether it is international tourists using Los Angeles as a gateway or Los Angeles’ own key market, or the residents of California. The only certainty about climate change is that some change is inevitable, Scott et al (2004) climate change study of US cities and tourism through 2030–80 found that tourism in Los Angeles would be marginally better off in the winter months, but overall would move from ‘‘excellent’’ to ‘‘marginal/ unfavorable’’, as the climate would become unbearable for tourists. If so, how will Los Angeles change? Would the city in 2050 be something akin to Logan’s Run (Nolan and Johnson 1967), as portrayed in the classic science fiction film, where life is controlled and managed within a domed complex? This chapter takes a futuristic scenario perspective on what tourism in urban Los Angeles could be and the relationship to California’s hinterland in 2050. An extreme futures viewpoint is used to demonstrate to readers what change is possible and what the implications would be. Central to this chapter is the identification and discussion of the key drivers of change, such as peak oil, food supply, urbanization, and climate change. By adopting such an approach, it is hoped that the reader can envisage what the future could be. However, one thing is certain that the future will be different compared to 2010. Tourists to California spent US$97.6 billion in 2008, which supports 924,000 jobs in the state, with international tourists representing 19% of all expenditure. Californians are the mainstay of tourism in the state, comprising 86% of domestic trips (visits by US citizens), whereas the top out-of-state domestic markets are Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Oregon, and Washington. In the Los Angeles area, the economic value of tourism is $13.8 billion or 14% of tourism expenditure in California. In addition, 25.6 million tourists take an overnight holiday in Los Angeles and it is the second most visited city in the United States after New York for international tourists (Los Angeles Convention and Visitor Bureau 2008). Los Angeles is an iconic destination with many well-known attractions in a relatively concentrated space, whether it is Disneyland, Hollywood, Beverley Hills, Museum of Contemporary Art, or Malibu beach. The future

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of tourism in California and Los Angeles is set out by the California Travel Tourism Commission in the ‘‘2007–2013 Strategic Marketing Plan’’ (CTTC 2007) focusing on key markets of greater California, United Kingdom, Germany and Japan; and tourism products of winter sports, food and wine tourism, culture, and adventure tourism. Looking to 2050, markets and products will be different as envisaged in the forthcoming scenario. Future Cities Since the time of the Industrial Revolution, cities have often been blamed for causing environmental problems. Yet although the concentration of people, enterprises, motor vehicles, and waste in cities is often seen as a ‘‘problem’’, high densities and large population concentrations can also bring a variety of advantages for meeting human needs and for environmental management. Urbanization offers an opportunity for the future, as Dodman (2009) points out that the economies of scale, proximity, and agglomeration mean that it is cheaper to provide the infrastructure and services needed to minimize environmental hazards; the concentration of enterprises means that it is less costly to enforce environmental legislation; and the relative proximity of homes and businesses can encourage walking, cycling, and the use of mass transport in place of private motor vehicles (Dodman 2009). From a tourism perspective, given the critical debate about climate change and the future of natural resources, such as water and food, could a future city exist that would be akin to the popular science fiction film Logan’s Run (Nolan and Johnson 1967)? The film depicts a dystopian future society in which population and the consumption of resources are managed and maintained in equilibrium by the simple expedient of demanding the death of everyone upon reaching a particular age, thus avoiding the issue of overpopulation. The book’s story follows the actions of Logan, a Deep Sleep Operative or ‘‘Sandman’’ charged with enforcing the rule, as he tracks down and kills citizens who ‘‘run’’ from society’s lethal demand only to himself ultimately ‘‘run’’. It is not suggested here that everyone has to die by the time they reach the age of 30, as depicted in the film, but instead the chapter presents a scenario of closed self-sufficient cities being built in order to become more sustainable. Such a scenario is not beyond imagination, as Hodson and Marvin (2009) conclude that cities have usually sought to guarantee their reproduction by seeking out resources and strategies of selfsufficient infrastructures. Future cities have an agenda in an era of scarcity of resources and climate change. World cities are developing networks and coalitions, which are

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defining the terms and shape of these responses (Hodson and Marvin 2009). They are developing fixes that appear to be prioritizing two scales of infrastructure connection: disengagement from national and regional infrastructure and the re-prioritizing of city-based enclosed resources, while at the same time seeking to ensure continued intra- and inter-urban connections through new urban agglomerations of sociotechnologies. Such strategies are embedded within a wider issue of ensuring strategic protection and seeking to guarantee the longer reproduction of the city.

A SCENARIO OF METROPOLIS LOS ANGELES As a consequence of this trend toward urbanization and the impacts of climate change, a scenario maybe employed in order to bring the main points of climate change and tourism to light; the drivers behind the scenario are identified in the pursuing discussion. In this scenario, there is a realization that the rapid growth of tourism as predicted by the UN World Tourism Organization in 2010 was unsustainable. No longer could it be justified both on moral grounds and in terms of resources for consumers to overindulge themselves with holidays. Although tourism is the world’s largest industry and China is the world’s leading destination, things have changed, as climate change policies are embedded in international trade agreements. It all started in 2015 when the government realized that emission reduction targets could not be met and the Middle East countries decided to stop selling oil to the West. So it was necessary to encourage people to travel less and this in turn required a public policy intervention to help households and individuals change their lifestyle. By 2025, we have seen a major attitudinal change toward travel and tourism. In fact transport is only allowed if it is green, clean, and generates a low carbon footprint. For example, new cleaner technologies have made road-based car transport viable for a relatively short distance of up to 200 kilometers. Car distances beyond that point are heavily taxed. Public transport, electric and low energy, is efficient and widely used. This efficiency is typified by Los Angeles. Visiting this metropolis hub means hotels are sustainable, which includes self-contained power generation from solar panel cells. The hub has an excellent IT infrastructure needed for a thriving financial services industry. Corporate meetings are now confined to virtual worlds ever since the introduction of telepresencing in 2028, a system which combines videoconferencing and virtual reality to create three dimensional, high speed, fluid

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interaction across different geographical locations. Business people even have their own hologram to give that physical presence. The metropolitan hub has invested heavily in conference and exhibition space, combined with an efficient land-based transport system making it an ideal association meetings destination. In 2050, association meetings are still important for face-to-face situations, as not everything can be done by telepresencing. Technology in this scenario lets the world deal with change and overcome many of the environmental and economic challenges of climate change and energy policy. In this scenario it is about transporting people from A to B in mass numbers, thus reducing the need for individual journeys. Across the United States, urban hubs have organized themselves to minimize travel and carbon footprints. For example, Los Angeles is now a UNESCO tourism colony with award-winning features such as the skyscraper Botanical Gardens. The city’s green credentials stretch from the connectivity of its Urban Light Rail System, connecting the airport with business and leisure districts, making the city center a car free zone, to the novel use of Segways for the elderly and infirm tourists. Globally, competition is increasing between cities and not countries, and the winners in the competitive environment are those able to link high value-knowledge assets with a desirable workforce, good quality of life, and appropriate public assets, such as cultural and educational resources. That’s one of the reasons why cities are changing and Los Angeles metropolis hub is at the forefront. However, cities have grown up at the expense of rural communities. The rail network is practically nonexistent outside Los Angeles. Many rural communities have become isolated and unsustainable due to the lack of tourists, combined with immigration toward urban hubs. Some microclimate rural communities do survive and position themselves as garden adventure playgrounds for urban day trippers. Over the last 40 years there has been much change to the Californian tourism product. The Napa Valley, once the cornerstone of the state’s wine and tourism industry, is no more. Food tourism has virtually disappeared as genetically modified and replicator foodstuffs, along with vitamin supplements, have become the norm for today’s Californians. The Channel Islands National Park survives as an exclusive destination for the mega rich who are searching for an authentic ecotourism experience. Other islands, such as Catalina Island, had to be abandoned due to the high cost of transport. Walt Disney theme park is still the icon for many Californians, as hedonism and fun are the key drivers in today’s mass tourism market. Air travel is relatively expensive as it is still dependent upon carbon fuels, meaning it is heavily taxed at 80% and vulnerable to oil shocks. This has

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meant that plans to expand Los Angeles Airport were curtailed in 2020 with investment being switched to rail networks and urban hubs. Tourism in California is predominantly a city-based product, with rural destinations offering an exclusive experience for those who can afford to travel to the islands and hinterland. In this scenario, resource use is now a fundamental part of the tax system and people are more careful in their use of resources. So is this what it could look like? Scenario Drivers Peak Oil and Affordability of Air Travel. Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline (Roberts 2005). The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related production sites. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly— until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or soon after, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming countries (Yeoman, Lennon, Greenwood et al 2007). Climate Change and the Ecosystem On the 27 February 2009, Governor Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency due to drought conditions as statewide reservoir storage was extremely low; snowpack water content was 39% below average (Department of Water Resources 2009). Basically, the water supply conditions were dire. Is this an example of what was to come? Projected climate change scenarios (Hayhoe, Cayan, Field et al 2004) mean longer and more extreme droughts resulting in shortages, competition, poor quality, and unreliability of water. Water quality is degraded, making it difficult and costly to make drinkable. Business and irrigated agriculture are adversely affected, ecosystems are strained, risking sensitive and endangered plants, animals, and habitats. Groundwater levels decline and many rural communities who are dependent on small water systems or wells run short of water.

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Hayhoe et al (2004), modeling the impact of climate change and emission pathways on California, observe increases in extreme heat and heat-related mortality. In particular, Los Angeles sees temperatures rising between 1.51 to 51C and 3.51 to 91C in different scenarios. The implications of the scenario modeling see the number of heat wave days dramatically increase and with it heat-related deaths. Rising temperatures, exacerbated in some simulations by decreasing winter precipitation, produce substantial reductions in the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, with cascading impacts on California’s winter recreation, stream flow, water storage, and supply. As a consequence, the ski season will be shortened and a lot more unpredictable. Water-based sporting activity will be curtailed as riverbeds run dry. Food Supply. If 11 million people live in Los Angeles in 2050, the impact on the food supply chain will be enormous. Based upon this trend, food security, the potential to produce enough food so that people in California can lead healthy and productive lives will be significantly stressed. The future status of agricultural production is especially critical, as vital resources such as arable land, clean water, adequate energy, and abundant biodiversity are rapidly depleted throughout California and the world. Of the 2.3 billion acres of land in the United States, only 460 million acres (or 20%) is considered suitable for agricultural production (Pimentel and Pimentel 2008). California has a fair amount of that fertile land, and ranks first in agricultural production in the country. However, a loss of agricultural land, and subsequent decrease in production is imminent if current population trends continue. Essentially, the US population, including California’s, is increasing geometrically, while arable land per capita is simultaneously decreasing. This fertile land is lost to urbanization and industrial spread, transportation systems, and wind and water erosion. Pimentel and Pimentel (2008) project that by 2050, per capita agricultural land will be reduced to approximately half of what it is today. With a decreased supply and increased demand for food, food prices are expected to increase by three to five times the current prices. So, even if the total US dollar value of sales does not decline as a direct result of the increased demand for diminished supply, the land area devoted to farms—and the number of farms—may be half of what it is today. This change in the farming system will have a major impact on the economy of California and its people. All told, California stands to lose a substantial amount of available farmland, at a substantial economic loss, if the population continues to grow. In fact, if the current rate of land loss continues, in less

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than 33 years approximately half of California’s cropland will no longer be available for production. In addition, the growing numbers of humans place ever greater demands on other natural resources, including water, energy, and the natural environment, which are vitally important to agricultural production. So, what is the future? Maybe in 2050 the Replicator as seen on Star Trek: The Next Generation will come true. The Replicator is used primarily to provide food and water on board starships, thus eliminating the need to stock most provisions. Any physical structure can be recreated as long as the desired molecular structure is on file, but it cannot create antimatter, dilithium, latinum, or a living organism of any kind.

Environmental Taxation. Growing concern about climate change has brought environmental issues to the forefront of the policy agenda in many European countries. Taxes, charges, tradable permits, and other economic instruments can play an important role in achieving cost-effective control of greenhouse gas emissions, but their potential scale and revenue contribution raise many wider economic and fiscal policy implications. A number of European countries introduced carbon taxes during the 1990s. Sweden is the country whose carbon tax has been judged the most successful. The country’s carbon dioxide emissions dropped 20% between 1991 and 2000 after implementing the plan. The tax is credited with spurring a significant move from fossil fuels to biomass and as a major reason for steering society toward climate-friendly solutions. It made polluting more expensive and focused people on finding energy-efficient solutions (Miller, Vandome and McBrewster 2009). The increasing use of environmental taxes, emissions trading, and other economic instruments have been partly driven by a recognition of the limitations of conventional environmental regulation. Fullerton, Leicester and Smith (2008) note that to make a serious impact on some of the major environmental problems now facing policy makers, acid rain, global warming, traffic congestion, and environmental policy cannot be approached purely as technical issues to be resolved merely by requiring the use of specified abatement technologies, setting emissions limits and using taxation to curb demand. The United States imposes virtually no green taxes. Most programs to reduce pollution rely on mandatory standards such as the Clean Air Act’s New Source Performance Standards for stationary polluters and the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for automobiles.

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Urban Land Transport Systems. Transport and communications are fundamental to development. The construction and maintenance of roads, ports, and inter-urban railways, and the like, determine to a large extent whether cities will succeed economically. According to the UN-HABITAT (2008), two-fifths of the world’s fastest growing cities have benefited from diversification and improvement of regional transport systems, in terms of infrastructure and technology. Investments in transport not only increase the overall productivity, but also contribute toward a reduction in socioeconomic disparities across space and people. Connectivity through the development of infrastructure has been vital for the growth of cities in close proximity to larger urban centers. A considerable number of small and intermediate cities grew as bedroom communities, residential suburbs, or satellite cities, offering the amenities of urban life (proximity, convenience, and diversity) without the disadvantages, such as air pollution, congestion, and crime. Investments in transport have effectively reduced the ‘‘commuter territory’’ in many places, linking metropolitan and subregional spaces and interconnecting various urban settlements in neighboring geographic locations. Congestion in Los Angeles is one of the worst in the United States and the city’s rapid transit systems have not kept pace with the growth of the city (Ewing 1997). According to the US Census Bureau (Metro 2008), the percentage of commuters who use public transportation in Los Angeles County is 7%, far lower than in other major American cities: 30% of San Franciscan workers use public transport, 25% within Chicago, and 54% in New York City. With the region’s growing population, the city will not be able to support itself without future investments in transportation.

Urbanization and Immigration. Projections by the California Department of Finance (2009) Government are projecting California’s population will reach 60 million people by 2050, with the 40 million mark being passed in 2012 and 50 million in 2032. The projections reveal that Hispanics are now expected to constitute the majority of Californians by 2042, with Whites comprising 26%, Asians, 13% and Blacks 5%. Los Angeles will continue to be the largest county, topping 13 million by 2050. This city is the primary receiving county for immigrants to California, with approximately 300,000 legal immigrants settling in Los Angeles in 2000, with immigrants coming from over 85 countries. It is estimated that there are 12 million illegal immigrates in the US, with California accounting for 3 million who are mainly from Mexico (State of California 2009; Yeoman 2010).

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Assault on Pleasure. There is hardly any aspect of the modern world that does not attract some form of moral or political debate. Today one of the debates revolves around the relationship between state and the individual, where the former is increasingly regulating social order and restricting the individual’s choice of lifestyle. In a free society where the individual should have choice, the range of options is declining. Authorities are increasingly intervening to restrict options and to prohibit activities, including smoking, gambling, and even eating certain foodstuffs. From a consumer’s perspective, political correctness has reached the point at which people have to worry about what they do and how they behave. Society appears to be worrying about all sorts of things and debating issues such as how much people drink, what gifts children should receive, whether flying should be allowed, what products should be advertised, and the size of our carbon footprint. To a certain extent this phenomenon of excessive worrying is actually taking the fun out of pleasure in commercial activity as a result of regulations and the extent to which red tape and rising insurance premiums impact on choice––resulting in tourism businesses being unable to operate viably. These issues lead to the new puritanical society and a trend which Yeoman (2008) refers to as ‘‘Assault of Pleasure’’, which, if followed to its natural conclusion, will result in overindulgence in tourism being restricted, curtailed, or banned, because it will be deemed to be bad for the environment and society. Preserving the Rural Environment for Sustainable Living. In 1964, the US Congress enacted and the President signed ‘‘An Act to establish a national wilderness preservation system for the permanent good of the whole people’’: The Wilderness Act. In ringing phrases, the law states the national policy ‘‘to secure for the American people of present and future generations the benefits of an enduring resource of wilderness’’. The goal is to assure that an increasing population, accompanied by expanding settlement and growing mechanization, does not occupy and modify all areas within the United States and its possessions, leaving no lands designated for preservation and protection in their natural condition. An April 2001 nationwide Los Angeles Times (reported in Campaign for America’s Wilderness 2003) poll shows just how strongly the American people share the congressional purpose set forth in the Wilderness Act. Rivard, Poitevin, Plasse, Carleton and Currie (2000) highlight that the isolation of Canada’s national parks away from human development has resulted in species richness, extirpations, and introductions driven by policy structures that support this isolation. As a consequence, Canada’s ecosystems have being

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conserved. Isolation as a preserving mechanism for ecosystems seems to be the most effective tool in conservation management (Piessens, Honnay and Hermy 2005; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Daily, Pfaff and Busch 2003). Green Technologies. Green technology is the application of the environmental science to conserve the natural environment and resources, and to curb the negative impacts of human involvement, whether it is sewage treatments, solar power, or electric cars. Green technologies are being applied in almost all fields in society. Green building technologies and applications encompass everything from the choice of building materials to where a building is located. Green chemistry includes the invention, design, and application of chemical products, and processes to reduce or to eliminate the use and generation of hazardous substances. Today, one of the best examples of green technologies is the hybrid car that combines a gasoline power train with supplementary electric motors, which runs the car at idle and low speeds. Green technology can also be applied in hotel bedroom applications, for instance, using ecofriendly televisions allowing the hotels to save money and lessen energy consumption while still providing a high-quality viewing experience for the guest. Philips’ Smart Power2 consumes nearly 50% less power than normal LCD HDTVs and includes a light sensor that measures room lighting levels and dims the backlights to provide viewing comfort at the lowest power levels tolerable or with Power Lite toilet. This toilet features dual flush technology and an ecofriendly 0.8gallon flush option that saves as much as 6,000 gallons of water annually over a traditional 1.6-gallon toilet (Greer 2009). Implications: A Reversal of Fortunes It seems that the world in 2050 will be very different to 2009. The theme of reversal of fortunes occurs as tourism returns to a mass tourism experience for the middle classes and luxury as an ecotourism experience is only available to the upper classes. Tourism in California, as seen in the California Travel and Tourism Commissions (CTTC 2007) five year plan 2007–13, will be completely different compared to 2050. Overseas markets, such as Japan, Germany, Korea, and the United Kingdom, would virtually disappear due to the high cost of international air travel. Out of state tourists numbers from New York, Illinois, and Texas who normally fly to the state would drop dramatically as well. Reasons for traveling to California, such as change of scenery, romance, escaping, and freedom would no longer be valid as climate change would have fundamentally

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closed rural tourism to the middle classes of America. At the heart of the change would be the disappearance of California’s unique lifestyle and culture that is focused on a casual, laid-back vibe of freedom of expression, and an active outdoor focus. California as a brand ‘‘Find Yourself Here’’ would no longer be relevant. Products such as winter sports, food, and wine tourism would virtually disappear from the landscape, as the main focus of tourism becomes urban based. In strategic terms, tourism in California ceases to be a sustainable proposition after the oil shocks of 2015, resulting in an urban tourism experience shaped by the connectivity of transport structures and catchments. Policy interventions by government drive this scenario, based upon a proposition of what sustainable transport should be and the consequences of overdependence on oil, especially when there is little alternative to jet fuels (Yeoman et al 2007). The resultant policy shift will see the demise of the California Travel and Tourism Commission and the strengthening of the Los Angeles Convention Bureau as urban centers become the economic powerhouses in 2050. One of the key implications of the scenarios is the end of rural tourism in California due to the lack of access to rural areas. However, tourism in California would lead to greater social exclusion of tourists without the means to pay for exclusive experiences. In this scenario, ecotourism is a luxury experience only accessible to those who can afford it, which is counterintuitive when dealing with the topic of community tourism. The scenario notes that the Channel Islands National Park can only survive as an ecodestination based upon exclusiveness for the mega rich. Therefore, the relationship between city and rural tourism changes in this scenario, no longer are rural communities needed to supply cities with food and other resources, as cities become more self-reliant. Relating this scenario to world tourism means international tourism would disappear as a consequence of the decline and lack of accessibility to aviation. It would be expected that international tourism in Africa and other developing countries deprived of access to developed markets, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States, would be more. Therefore, tourism could no longer be counted as an economic engine of growth for places like South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, and Namibia. In these countries, it would be expected that their economies would not be able to trade, climate change would be disruptive, and populations would starve. International tourism is now defined by regional rather than intercontinental travel, because of the scarcity of international aviation and dependence on land-based transport systems.

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One of the storylines in the scenario is a realization that change is necessary: governments change the supply structures of the tourism industry through legislation and conservation measures, whereas consumers’ behaviors and attitudes change toward the environment. As a consequence, tourism is no longer a right or expected privilege. Individuality and the paradox of choice have been striking features of world tourism in the last decade (Yeoman 2008). As consumers’ wealth and the experience economy grew––most of the world became involved in tourism, whether it was ‘‘Incredible India’’ or ‘‘I ! New York’’. A reversal of fortunes occurs based upon the restrictions placed on tourist access. As a consequence, this leads to the return of mass tourism and centralized control––a Marxist approach to society rather than individuality. In the scenario, tourism becomes a manufactured experience rather than an authentic one. The cultural experience of food and wine tourism changes considerably. No longer is the rural backdrop available, but a Star Trek Replicator that generates food from a history bank of molecular structures. Food changes as culture moves from an authentic experience to a manufactured one. As is, tourism for the masses through Walt Disney in Los Angeles, a theme park of fun, dreams and fantasy––something that is not about ‘‘time on your own’’, ‘‘enrichment’’, ‘‘reflection’’, and ‘‘self actualization’’. It could be reasoned that Los Angeles will just be another Las Vegas with lap dancers, retail therapy, and gaming: a monoculture found in any city. In 2050, luxury tourism will be an ecotourism experience, maybe the only way the masses will access such an experience will be through the Star Trek holodeck (a simulated reality facility located on starships and starbases in the fiction Star Trek universe). Who knows! The scenario highlights how the convention and meetings industries will evolve and adapt to using technologies and videoconferencing techniques, such as telepresencing with a high value virtual reality dimension, which supersedes face-to-face meetings for ordinary transactions. However, it is noted that face-to-face meetings are still very important. But as seen in the scenario, Los Angeles is a super state with a high-density population, so business tourism would be about serving this community. What is the role of Los Angeles as an urban destination in 2050? It would not be an urban gateway for international and domestic tourists anymore, as air transport nodes would be minimal. It would be a contained city focusing on the day tripper, hence the need for hotel accommodation and related services would decline. Local residents and commuters would be main users of attractions and infrastructure. Does this mean tourism is more defined as leisure as the blur between tourism and residents diminishes? With a large

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population concentration, crime and safety becomes an issue especially if resources are scarce. How would residents (tourists) feel about their city and nighttime activity? In the worst-case scenario, would Los Angeles become the new Johannesburg with a series of suburbia gate fenced ghettos (Sandton) and shantytowns (Soweto)? Such a dark proposition is not favorable for a creative destination. In 2050, where space is a premium, city planners would be under extreme pressures to protect green open spaces for urban development. Test cases and encroachment will become the norm. Urban zoos and performing circuses will probably have a reversal of fortune as tourists visit attractions they could not go on holiday to. Los Angeles will construct a series of mega indoor attractions for tourists to reminisce past experiences such as skiing and golf. As Los Angeles’ climate will be too hot for many outdoor activities, even the once famous California surf will succumb to an indoor water world, similar to Seagaia Ocean Dome in Japan. It is envisioned (or hoped) that green technologies will mitigate the environmental cost of such constructions. However, tourism in 2050 would be a manufactured experience. This discussion does not suggest that Los Angeles will present a bad experience, but that it faces many challenges. Scott et al (2004) study of climate change in US cities states that Los Angeles moves from a position of ‘‘excellent’’ to ‘‘marginal/unfavorable’’ is a warning of what is to come. The role of planning must be to ensure that its density and economies of scale brings a major opportunity to reduce energy demand and minimize pressures on surrounding land and natural resources. A well-planned and wellregulated Los Angeles in this scenario could mitigate the consequences of climate change through technological innovation, the harmonization of green spaces, and the coordination of leisure activity. This is a creative city, with fantastic museums, a nightlife that is the envy of the world, a history associated with Hollywood, and a celebrity destination. Combined with the use of green technologies, transport systems, icon cultures, and urban parks, a sense of belonging and comfort needs to be created within a future Los Angeles.

CONCLUSION This chapter contributes to the debate about climate change by ‘‘shocking’’ the reader of the implications of change. Would you want to holiday in this world? Maybe a Metropolis Los Angeles could be a Logan’s Run.

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A dystopian future society in which population and the consumption of resources is managed and maintained in equilibrium by the simple expedient of demanding the death of everyone upon reaching a particular age, thus avoiding the issue of overpopulation. This would be a world that does not have a rural experience (except for the exclusive few), no stories to tell about good food and wine, breathtaking views, icon landscapes, special moments, and mountains to ski down. A world of manufactured experiences rather than a natural wonderland. This is a story about the future. It is not a forecast but a construct based upon likely trends, critical uncertainties, and a creative imagination that encourages thinking. A number of stresses or triggers have been discussed in the chapter, namely peak oil, urbanization, immigration, climate change, and food supply. If combined and taken to the extreme, this would lead to an Urban Metropolis in 2050, resulting in the death of tourism in California as it is known today. Alternatively, is not Las Vegas the world’s most successful tourism destination? Therefore, all of the above conclusions are without fear.

Chapter 17

CASE STUDY: MOVING TO CARBON CLEAN DESTINATIONS Terry DeLacy Victoria University, Australia

Geoffrey Lipman GreenEarth.travel, Belgium

Abridgement: GreenEarth.travel is an integrated, holistic destination strategy to assist the tourism industry move into the new green economy. This approach has evolved over the last 15 years through a number of strategies initiated by the authors in their policy, management, and research activities. This has involved development of Agenda 21 for Travel and Tourism, Green Globe, Earthcheck, Earthlung, and most recently GreenEarth.travel. The GreenEarth.travel approach has been developed while the authors worked on sustainable destination strategies for Sri Lanka, Turks and Caicos, and Sharm el Sheikh in Egypt. GreenEarth.travel includes a general set of criteria to guide development of destinations that seek to move to a green economy. The criteria identify key components that need to be addressed to put a destination onto a carbon clean pathway. The plan offers a structured, creative approach both to adapt to climate change risks and to take advantage of the opportunities provided by the broader ‘‘green economy’’ change gathering momentum globally. Keywords: destinations; adaptation; carbon clean tourism; sustainability criteria; green economy

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 299–312 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003020

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INTRODUCTION The world is moving toward a ‘‘green economy’’. It is understood that this is a longterm-measured shift from now to 2050. It has to start fast with tough targets to stabilize the earth’s temperature at reasonable levels. It will have dissimilar levels of intensity for different countries in respect to their social and developmental reasons and to trade and poverty coherence. It is also known that if actions are taken now, the cost and the pain will be tough but bearable; that the cost and consequence will increase exponentially with every procrastination; and that we have no alternatives. Travel and tourism can play a key role in this shift. It is vulnerable to climate change risks, through direct and indirect impacts and as a result of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its operations. It is also a significant socioeconomic driver for gross domestic product, jobs, and investment, with particular value added for poor countries and small island developing states. A warming earth will leave destination ecosystems and infrastructure vulnerable to decay and destruction, with consequent loss of amenities for tourists and economic benefits for residents. As climate change bites, tourism demand patterns will inevitably alter. As the global community addresses climate change risks and moves toward a new green, carbon clean, economy destinations are challenged to adapt to this new reality to remain sustainable. They need an integrated approach to enhance their resilience to climate change risks. Each destination must collectively mitigate GHG emissions from the myriad of operations involved in the tourism industry and ensure its governance, management, and public–private partnerships are flexible and attuned to the adaptive responses needed to deal with future risks. The destination must also consider the implications in terms of changing demand and supply, as well as promotion and brand; and most importantly, take a leadership role and seize the opportunities presented by the emerging green economy. This case study chapter introduces a destination sustainability approach that the authors have been involved with, GreenEarth.travel, to help destinations meet the climate change challenge. Firstly the approach is contextualized, then the framework described, and case studies reviewed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the possible ways forward for destinations in the new green economy incorporating the approach identified. GREENEARTH.TRAVEL The world is entering into a new, green economy. For example, environmentally friendly investments form a key part of many 2008–09

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global financial crises recovery programs. As reported in the OECD Observer (2009), Korea launched the world’s first ‘‘green new deal’’ stimulus package planning over US$38 million in spending on various green projects; China is completing a $440 billion package to support wind and solar energy, as well as investing in tourism infrastructure; the Obama Administration aims to create 450,000 ‘‘green collar’’ jobs; and Germany wants its total renewable workforce to reach 900,000 in 2030. A range of recent global studies and reports (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007d; Simpson et al 2008; UNWTO-UNEP 2008; World Economic Forum 2009; World Travel and Tourism Council 2009) highlight challenges the tourism industry faces from climate change risk. For example, the International Panel on Climate Change (2007d) stated in its fourth report that tourism’s close connections to the environment and climate make it a highly climate-sensitive industry, similar to agriculture, insurance, energy, and transportation. The United Nations World Tourism Organization, in association with United Nations Environment Program, World Meteorological Organization, and the World Economic Forum convened a conference on tourism and climate change in October 2007. The resultant Davos Declaration Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges, stated in part: given tourism’s importance in the global challenges of climate change and poverty reduction, there is a need to urgently adopt a range of policies that encourage truly sustainable tourism and travel patterns that reflects a ‘‘quadruple bottom line’’ of environmental, social, economic, and climate responsiveness. Furthermore, tourism must rapidly respond to climate change, within the evolving UN Bali framework, and reduce its GHG contribution if it is to grow in a sustainable manner. This will require action to:  Mitigate its GHG emissions, derived especially from transport and

accommodation activities.  Adapt tourism businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions.  Apply existing and new technology to improve energy efficiency.  Secure financial resources to help poor regions and countries.

The declaration called for actions from governments and international organizations, the tourism industry and destinations, consumers, and research and communications networks. In particular, it called on destinations to strive to conserve biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and landscapes in ways which strengthen resilience to climate change and ensure a longterm sustainable use of the environmental resource base of tourism, especially those that serve as Earth Lungs (carbon sinks), sequestering GHGs through

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forest management and other biological programs, or that protect coastlines (such as mangroves). The United Nations World Tourism Organization, other UN organizations, international nongovernmental organizations, industry, and private organizations are developing approaches and strategies to respond. For example, a partnership led by the UN Foundation has developed the Global Sustainable Tourism Criteria (sustainabletourismcriteria.org) as a benchmark for tourism enterprises to mitigate GHG emissions among a range of sustainability best practices. A number of company members of the World Travel and Tourism Council have signed onto a strategy toward a lower carbon pathway: In order to realize our vision and create a low climate risk industry we intend to build on the targets set by progressive business leaders and current science, by setting ourselves the aspirational target of reducing total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by no less than 50% from 2005 levels by 2035. As an interim target we intend to reduce our CO2 emissions by 30% by 2020, assuming there is an international agreement on global emission reduction, or by 25% by 2020 in the absence of such an agreement (WTTC 2009:8). Consumer attitudes and resultant demand for ‘‘green’’ products is changing, with consequent implications for the need (and benefit) for destinations to address climate change risks. Numerous trends, such as the Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability market (2009), the eco- and geotourism market (Tourtellot and Tourism Industry Association of America 2003), are driving independent tourists, their tour operators, and travel agent intermediaries to require operators and destinations to deliver greener, more carbon clean products and experiences. This is especially true in the business events and incentive market where businesses are required ethically, and increasingly legally, to report on and reduce carbon emissions from their operations (DeLacy and Bergin 2009). Within this context, destinations need to respond positively to these challenges and position themselves to take advantage of ‘‘first mover’’ opportunities. Tourism stakeholders in a destination, both in the public and private sectors, must balance four fundamental considerations. These include climate, sociocultural, economic, and environmental considerations. These measures represent the metrics of a new generation of tourism, which

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ensures sustainable growth in the interests of both the destination and its tourists. It is referred to as ‘‘the quadruple bottom line’’, believing that climate has added a new overriding dimension to the traditional ‘‘triple bottom line’’. One approach to support destinations in this endeavor is GreenEarth.travel. GreenEarth.travel Criteria A general set of criteria (Table 1) guides development of destinations that seek to move to a green economy. The criteria identify key destination components that need to be addressed to put it onto a carbon clean pathway. They recognize that each destination will have to address the criteria in their own specific, top-down and equally importantly, bottom-up way. The criteria provide a common framework for countries, communities, companies, and tourists to grow the industry over time decoupled with an increase in GHG emissions. They have been designed so that any destination can follow a clear path to low carbon operations, based on its own geographic, socioeconomic, and environmental realities. The destination then becomes part of the GreenEarth Community, whose aim it is to lead tourism into the green economy. The GreenEarth.travel approach has been designed to use globally recognized systems and measures for sustainable/responsible growth and development of the tourism industry. It aligns public, private, and civil society stakeholders in a common, climate neutral framework. It positions a destination at the forefront of industry change and builds community interest, brand equity, and competitiveness. Lead Case Study: Sri Lanka The Earth Lung concept was initiated in mid-2007 by the Sri Lanka Ministry of Tourism and Board in collaboration with GreenEarth.travel. It was recognized as an innovative leadership initiative at the UNWTO Davos Summit, with potential as a basis for a global system. Sri Lanka has a vibrant tourism industry, built on its unique culture and nature. Foreign exchange earnings from tourism are important to its economy and its prospects for growth. Tourism is one of the four key pillars supporting the country’s economy, as it secures much needed foreign exchange earnings, employment opportunities, and revenue––over one million people are employed in tourism (DeLacy, Jago, Truong and Lipman 2007). Despite challenging internal and external factors that have affected

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Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Table 1. GreenEarth.travel Criteria

GreenEarth Community A destination with an integrated climate, sustainability, and green economy strategy implemented through public/private collaboration incorporating: Commitment To grow smart tourism––carbon clean, green, ethical and quality, following the quadruple bottom line of sustainable development––environment, social, economic and climate Roadmap With clear milestones, for continuous reduction in GHG emissions from all tourism related activity––at least equal to national commitments in international climate change agreements Detailed plan With methods, tools, and accreditation system, for companies to measure energy/water use and GHG/waste, and systematically meet efficiency targets Strategy To implement the Global Sustainable Tourism Criteria for companies and consumers, to introduce new green technology, to promote biodiversity and to integrate into visitor, supplier, and community awareness and promotion programs Membership In the GreenEarth.travel community with a pledge to initiate its program immediately, to progressively transform to the green economy, and to provide an annual report on progress Criteria Green economy governance

Adapting policies/regulations, engaging stakeholders, accessing finance, promoting technological innovation, ensuring capacity building, aligning marketing and branding Green energy Programs for fossil fuel reduction and conversion to infrastructure renewable energy Green air and sea Carbon offsets to local GHG reduction and sustainability access projects and increasingly efficient technology Green land transport Efficient public transport systems and policies to progressively replace energy inefficient private vehicles with GHG efficient ones Green tourism Measuring and benchmarking energy/water use and GHG/ operations solid waste emissions, and implementing verified green best practice Green new Planning regulation for sustainable, energy-efficient design development Green waste Best-in-class solid and liquid waste disposal, recycling/ management treatment systems Green community Engagement in planning processes, in decent work and in programs benefit sharing, as well as by educating and engaging visitors Green conservation Via ecosystem protection and best practice planning and management of the natural resources of the region

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the optimum performance of the industry, the resilient Sri Lankan tourism industry has continued to grow. This has been a key contributor to protecting and preserving natural and cultural heritage and uplifting the country’s disappearing traditional performing arts and crafts. The national and wildlife parks and numerous historical sites are maintained by the revenue generated from tourism. Artisans’ and craftsmen’ livelihoods are dependent on the industry’s backward linkages and support rural farmers and fishermen; and this income and government taxes contribute to health care and education. Tourism is also increasingly contributing to poverty reduction and gender equality. Being an island destination, access is generally by air and the majority of tourists take a long-haul flight. Western Europe accounts for over 40% of arrivals, while South Asia accounts for 30%. Other significant contributors are East Asia (13%), North America (6%), and Australasia (5%). The average duration of stay is 10 days (DeLacy et al 2007). Sri Lanka houses a large, complex, tropical forest system, with approximately 30% forest cover (Food and Agriculture Organization 2007). The forests consist primarily of montane forests, lowland rainforests, moist and dry monsoon forests, riverine forests, and mangroves comprising some two million hectares. These forests store approximately 21 tons of CO2 per ha for a total of 40 million tons of carbon (Food and Agriculture Organization 2007). Around 20% of global GHG emissions (about six billion tons per year), currently come from clearing the world’s forests; around 13 million hectares. This is second only to the emissions produced from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity, and equates to more than all of the world’s emissions from transport (Griffiths and Jarvis 2005). To stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 will require significant emission reductions globally, and this can only be achieved either by reducing energy production emissions or by capturing and storing such emissions. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the related Kyoto Protocol recognized that a range of Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities can play a vital role in decreasing the net emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere. About a third of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere since the industrial revolution were derived from land-cover changes, and currently about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are absorbed and accumulated in terrestrial ecosystems. Thus, management and monitoring of the terrestrial carbon cycle is an essential component in tackling climate change (Watson and Noble 2005). Deliberate biological mitigation of GHG emissions through LULUCF activities can occur through three strategies: one, conservation of

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existing carbon pools, such as avoiding deforestation; two, sequestration by increasing the size of carbon pools, for instance, through afforestation and reforestation; and three, substitution of fossil fuel energy by use of modern biomass. The Kyoto Protocol introduced several mechanisms for developed countries to implement their emission reduction targets. One of them, the Clean Development Mechanism is defined in the Kyoto Protocol (Article 12) as a mechanism for North-South cooperation. Its objective is to ‘‘assist parties included in Annex 1 (developed countries) in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitations and reduction commitments under Article 3’’ and to support ‘‘sustainable development’’ in developing countries. The Clean Development Mechanism allows a developed country to implement a project that reduces GHG emissions or, subject to constraints, remove GHGs by carbon sequestration in the territory of a developing country (a non-Annex 1 Party). The resulting certified emission reductions can then be used by the Annex 1 Party to help meet its emission reduction target. A range of LULUCF activities associated with appropriate Carbon Offset Programs can play a vital role in decreasing the net emissions of carbon into the atmosphere, including those resulting from tourism. As a key component of its Tourism Earth Lung initiative Sri Lanka commits to using its LULUCF and associated Carbon Offset Program activities to become, over time, a carbon neutral destination. To achieve this, a strategy will be developed where all stakeholders of Sri Lankan tourism, both in the public and private sectors, the people of Sri Lanka, and the destination’s tourists collaborate and create a carbon neutral destination. Sri Lanka has a tourism industry based on its unique culture and nature. The country also has an extensive and varied forest system and intends to bring these together in its roadmap for carbon clean Sri Lankan tourism. This is at the heart of its Earth Lung concept. Like many countries, Sri Lanka has suffered from deforestation. But it also has a program of afforestation and reforestation, which provides an ever-increasing carbon sink. Its vast tea and rubber plantations store carbon. The country also has the capacity to establish biofuel projects. It is determined to bring these LULUCF activities together with appropriate carbon offset programs to bear on addressing climate change and in particular, to chart Sri Lankan tourism on its new, carbon clean path. The roadmap will also include other appropriate mitigation tools, such as alternative energy and biofuels, to achieve a carbon clean tourism. The strategy will comprise of two distinct, yet interlocking streams. The supply-side initiative is where a research, development, and action program

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is instituted. This consultative initiative will result in a comprehensive carbon neutral strategy for the Sri Lankan tourism industry and its stakeholders (both local and foreign). Second, the demand side initiative, to be conducted in parallel, is to leverage the supply-side program. This is intended to ensure that the visiting public is aware that they, aside from enjoying the vibrant tourism experience, are positively contributing to a sustainable industry. The importance of the issue of climate change both for the world in general and for Sri Lanka in particular requires a pragmatic approach. Tourists are naturally suspicious of attempts to seduce them and expect, as such, a high degree of transparency and sincerity when dealing with matters of global importance. As a consequence, Sri Lanka will have to commit to communicating its strategy and intentions to the public and its stakeholders in the most transparent manner. The tourism value chain is multifaceted with many independent components. In order for the strategy to be successful and genuine, the supply-side program will embrace value chain elements, such as airlines and the distribution sector into its consideration and strategy. Sri Lanka will need to implement a longterm program to develop and implement its new roadmap to a carbon clean tourism future. This will involve developing strategies for mitigation, adaptation, and developing the required technical skills and financing to link the industry to, and around Sri Lanka, with storing carbon in LULUCF activities. The country will also need to put in place a program of research, development, and action to achieve this commitment, with workshops to ensure the strategy is based on good science. It will also need to engage international carriers and tour operators, international tourism, development and environment agencies of nongovernmental organizations, the local Sri Lankan tourism, forestry, environment, energy, development, and research community. Evolving Case Studies Other exploratory initiatives in the context of green destinations should also be mentioned here. For example, in late 2007 the government of the Turks and Caicos Islands requested advice from GreenEarth.travel on greening its island destination. Turks and Caicos have a vibrant tourism industry built around its beautiful island, beach and marine environment, and lifestyle. Being an island destination, access is generally by air. The United States accounts for approximately 70% of arrivals, while Europe accounts for 10%. Tourism is one of the key pillars supporting the country’s economy. As Turks and Caicos tourism is based around its beautiful natural beach and

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marine environment, it is a key contributor in protecting and preserving this natural heritage by creating great value for its conservation. However, the associated developments have also put great pressure on the same coastal and marine ecosystems. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and its tragic and devastating consequences were a wake-up call for the global community, dramatically drawing attention to the vulnerability of tropical coastal ecosystems and the dangers of undermining the services they provide to humankind. This was further emphasized by the catastrophic hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma caused much publicized and extensive damage to coastal areas. The lessons learnt in terms of loss of life, damage sustained, and approaches to reconstruction and mitigation are critically relevant to future management of the coast in a context of increasing severe weather events, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and other potential consequences of global warming. When the mangrove forest is destroyed, the natural sheltering belt against storms, flood waves, flooding, and coastal erosion is also gone. Notwithstanding the fact that mangrove ecosystems have tremendous value for coastal communities and associated species, they are being destroyed at alarming rates (United Nations Environment Program and World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) 2006). Over the last 50 years, about one-third of the world’s mangrove forests have been lost. Human threats to mangroves include the overexploitation of forest resources by local communities, conversion into largescale development, such as agriculture, forestry, salt extraction, urban development and infrastructure, and diversion of freshwater for irrigation. Global climate change, specifically changes in temperature, CO2, precipitation, hurricanes and storms, and sea level, will further threaten the resilience of mangroves. Yet, mangroves are a crucial component in reducing the climate change vulnerability of coastal destinations. Mangroves dissipate the energy and size of waves as a result of the drag forces exerted by their multiple roots and stems. It is estimated that a wave’s energy may be reduced by 75% in the wave’s passage through 200 meters of mangrove (UNEP-WCMC 2006). Mangroves, as with all forests, fix and store significant amounts of carbon and play an important role in carbon sequestration. One reported estimate is that mangroves sequester 25.5  106 tons of carbon a year (UNEP-WCMC 2006). In the Turks and Caicos Islands, mangrove forests occur as narrow fringes along the most sheltered coasts or in small stands at protected creek mouths (Salamanca 2007). The area of true mangrove forests throughout the islands is relatively small compared to the total area of wetlands. The

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flourishing tourism industry and the resultant construction of new road networks, widening of old access trails, and the building of condominiums, hotels, marinas, and other amenities have impacted on the mangrove ecosystem. The advice provided to the Turks and Caicos government involved the production of a new roadmap for the growth of its tourism industry, a roadmap that sees its tourism as carbon clean (DeLacy and Lipman 2008). This would involve implementing a series of mitigation, adaptation, technical, and finance measures. Implementing these measures will not be simple. There are a complex set of issues to be navigated, such as scientific, technological, environmental, economic, political, policy, investment, financial, communication, and marketing issues. The roadmap will involve appropriate mitigation strategies to be implemented across the tourism value chain from aviation, road, and sea transport, to accommodation and attractions. As well, the Turks and Caicos roadmap involves comprehensive restoration of its mangrove forests. Its mangrove restoration activities will be combined with appropriate Carbon Offset Programs to act as carbon sinks. This will allow tourists’ air travel GHG emissions to be offset and help in assisting in charting Turks and Caicos tourism on to a new carbon clean path. The roadmap also includes mitigation strategies for the accommodation and attractions within the destination. Carbon-efficient design and construction standards, refurbishment methods, and operational management protocols will be used. Renewable energy, ranging from cost positive solar water heating solutions through to solar, wind and wave energy-based systems will all be investigated to achieve carbon clean Turks and Caicos tourism. Public–private partnerships will be established to develop model carbon efficient tourism establishments and local destinations. In 2008, the Egyptian Prime Minister, following discussions with GreenEarth.travel, expressed his support for a green economy approach to Sharm el Sheikh. Subsequently, a scoping plan to achieve this goal was commissioned by the Minister of Tourism, in which GreenEarth.travel participated. This resort destination is situated on the southern Sinai Peninsula. In 2008, it had nearly 300 resorts with approximately 40,000 beds centered on beach, reef, diving, and desert activities. Sharm has focused on attracting the high volume lower priced tourism market, which has helped it to maintain high, all year round hotel occupancy rates of approximately 75%. Consumer surveys commissioned by the ministry (Egyptian Ministry of Tourism Internal Report 2007) indicated current environmental issues (such as waste and rubbish, sanitation and hygiene, sea and beach pollution, overcrowding of dive sites) are affecting tourists’

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perception of Sharm which could be detrimental to achieving longterm tourism growth. The Sinai is very dry, as in 2009 it had not rained for 5 years. Water supply is from desalination plants driven by diesel plants. Electricity supply is also from diesel. Consequently, the embedded carbon in the energy and water is comparatively high. Travel to Sharm, mostly by medium-haul air, is also carbon intensive. On top of this, Sharm does not have sanitary landfills for solid waste nor any onshore receival and treatment site for liquid wastes for the tour and dive boat fleet. The scoping plan to guide Sharm onto an Earth Lung pathway addressed this range of climate change and other environmental issues.

CONCLUSION The authors involvement in these carbon clean destination initiatives have underscored our belief in the value of the GreenEarth.travel criteria in differing types of destinations––large and small islands, coastal zones, and desert resorts. Each of these has its own tourism profile and potential for adaptation and mitigation. For example, issues such as reef protection, mangrove conservation, and regeneration and solar/wind energy generation emerge, which are quite different from the tropical forest sequestration/ conservation of Sri Lanka. The applicability of the criteria in each case has been analyzed and the conclusion has been drawn that they can form a useful framework for driving change toward a green economy and for routinely analyzing progress. The destination-wide approach to addressing the risks from climate change and seizing the opportunities offered by a new green economy has potential. The concept of bringing together both the demand and supply sides into one strategy is attractive to both the public and private components of the tourism industry. Based on this, the approach of ‘‘A 3601 Green Economy Scope’’ has been framed—which creates a strategic plan that plugs into broader national and local strategic development initiatives for climate, infrastructure, information and communications technology, financing, competitiveness, branding and sustainability (Figure 1). The plan is developed in close coordination with leaders in the public and private sectors in a destination, country, community, or city. It uses globally recognized systems and measures for sustainable and responsible growth and development of the tourism industry. It seeks to align public, private, and civil society stakeholders in

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Phase 1 Green Economy Game-plan

1 Situation Scope / Stakeholder View 1

Stakeholder View 2

6 Brand / Multimedia Promotion

2

360°

Trend Alignment / Vulnerability Review

Green Economy Scope

5 QBL Sustainability / Smart Travel Options

3

4

Supply Chain Vision

Demand Side Vision

Figure 1. A 3601 Green Economy Scope

a common, climate neutral, framework and position the destination at the forefront of tourism change. It builds community interest, brand equity, and competitiveness. It also helps to attract investment into sustainable tourism and provide a pathway to the new green economy. The end result is a 3601 Green Economy Strategy for transforming tourism in the destination. The eight-step approach places a heavy emphasis on multistakeholder engagement throughout the process. It is consistent with the GreenEarth.travel criteria, as well as other leading international sustainable tourism guidelines and it will have a strong promotion/branding component. The resultant strategic plan to be implemented over time involves a range of components including: climate neutral tourism plan, green technology, green operations, eTourism platform, green investment, competitive positioning, and brand and promotion. Implementing an effective destination-wide sustainability strategy is difficult. It requires large investment, public–private partnership, leadership, holistic government approaches, knowledge, training, overcoming freerider issues, cultural change (to name but a few). It also requires considerable funding up front before any gains can be realized. Experience in supporting destination

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sustainability for more than 15 years suggests that words are much more prevalent than action. Tourism is an industry where quality service and sensitivity to market demand dominates. Its culture is not one based on science, engineering, public policy, hazard risk management, or something similar. Consequently, actions based around environmental issues generally, and reducing GHG emissions in particular, are harder to gain traction than ones around marketing. Nevertheless, there is certainly an enhanced propensity for action from both the business sector and destinations. The tourism industry has shown considerable resilience to past shocks and disasters and has adapted to them all. It will inevitably adapt to the risks posed by climate change, but the challenge for each and every destination is how it can best adapt to it. Based on this coverage, GreenEarth.travel offers destinations a structured, creative approach to not only adapt to climate change risks but take advantage of the opportunities provided by the broader green economy change, which is gathering momentum globally.

Chapter 18

EPILOGUE Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change Christian Schott Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

This volume sought to both widen and deepen understanding of the complex relationship between tourism and climate change by compiling a collection of chapters with diverse disciplinary backgrounds. Additionally, through the use of case studies this volume bridges the gap between theory and practice by illustrating the realities of implementing climate-change-focused initiatives and strategies in the context of tourism. To present the different contributions in sections with similar foci, this volume is structured into four thematic sections with each containing at least one supporting case study. Section one establishes a scientifically based contextualization of tourism and climate change; the second examines initiatives and issues that arise in the supply of tourism products in this era of climate change; the third discusses issues and actions related to different countries and tourism consumers; and the fourth explores adaptation and innovation actions and identifies resulting challenges. The first observation that emerges, which has also been highlighted by other books on this topic (Becken and Hay 2007; Go¨ssling and Hall 2006c; Hall and Higham 2005; Peeters 2007b), is a pressing need for extensive further research into the interrelationships between tourism and climate change. This need is accentuated by the fact that the necessity for important implication-laden decisions to be taken is becoming ever more urgent. As is

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and Practice, Volume 3, 313–317 Copyright r 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 2042-1443/doi:10.1108/S2042-1443(2010)0000003021

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demonstrated by this volume, the understanding of the complexities of these interrelationships remains limited, and as a result a greater engagement of other disciplines and the participation of a wider range of stakeholders is required to both widen and deepen our knowledge of tourism as a victim and a vector in the context of climate change. In order to provide direction to this need for further research, Schott, Reisinger and Milfont proposed a number of key research themes in Chapter 1 and underscored this with a call for more transdisciplinary research by, for example, including valuable insights from psychology. Indeed, the value of engaging noncore tourism disciplines in the tourism and climate change debate is evident throughout the volume, as important insights are offered by, for example, meteorology in proposing a refinement of the commonly applied human-related indicators of climate impacts on tourism (Chapter 14), or by economics in demonstrating the benefits of a production-based approach using Tourism Satellite Accounts for estimating a country’s tourism greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint (Chapter 11), or anthropology by enlisting cyberethnography to explore tourists’ levels and types of concern about climate change (Chapter 12). However, a need to provide more detailed accounts of the interrelationships between tourism and climate change in the context of different tourism sectors and subsectors is also evident and equally important in building a solid research-informed platform on which to base decisions. Contributions with a sectoral focus include Chapter 6, which deals with the cruise tourism sector’s contribution to climate change; Chapter 5 about mitigation initiatives in the European hotel sector; Chapter 4, which examines the transport sector’s capacity to significantly reduce its GHG emissions, and case study chapters 7, 8, and 9 about the realities of addressing the challenges of climate change in a specific business context. Key conclusions that emerge from this volume and provide a platform for future research are manifold and will not be reviewed in detail here. Instead key findings and discussion points will be synthesized. These include Peeters’ argument that technology by itself cannot generate the GHG emission reductions required to avert serious climatic change (Chapter 4). In fact, several authors (Schott et al in Chapter 1, Peeters in Chapter 4, Zientara and Bohdanowicz in Chapter 5, and Burns et al in Chapter 12) argue that behavioral change is crucial to achieving tangible mitigation results, and therefore the factors influencing behavioral change need to be better understood. In the context of a review of mitigation initiatives in the European hotel sector, Zientara and Bohdanowicz highlight that behavioral change is not only required from consumers of tourism products, but also from employees, in particular in such labor-intensive sectors as

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accommodation (Chapter 5). While highlighted in the context of the accommodation sector, this is a point of relevance for the entire tourism industry because employees can act as ambassadors of environmental education and action, as well as powerful implementers of such ideas; equally, a lack of employee support for such initiatives will have a notable impact on a business’ ability to meet its goals. However, the tourism industry faces the challenge of having to educate, train, and ultimately convince a large number of employees of the benefits of such initiatives and processes, while at the same time suffering a comparatively high employee turnover. Klein argues in Chapter 6 that some sectors of the industry, such as cruise tourism, have been overlooked in the context of GHG emissions and that ‘‘green washing’’ is commonplace in this sector. Again, parallels from this study can be drawn with other sectors, in particular with regard to the rapid increase in tourism ecolabels, including those with particular focus on GHG emissions and mitigation. In Chapter 8, a campervan business discusses the perceived weaknesses of some ecolabel criteria and illustrates the complexities facing a business wanting to offset its GHG emissions; for instance, costly and time-consuming bureaucratic processes are highlighted by KEA Campers, as is the lack of integration of different initiatives with (New Zealand) legislation that might see a tourism operator or consumer pay twice to offset the same emissions (Chapter 8). On a similar note, the New Zealand Youth Hostels Association (NZYHA) documents its experience of achieving recognition for a strong environmental business ethos by a variety of means while also discussing the challenges it faces. For an association with a strong commitment to environmental issues, such as NZYHA, environmentally focused awards can provide recognition within the business environment as well as present an excellent vehicle for communicating leadership in environmental issues to potential and actual consumers. The significance of indirect impacts on a destination emerges as an important theme in Chapter 10 by Pearce and Schott who examine New Zealand’s public and private sector responses to the climate change challenge. The predicament facing island nations, who are reliant on longhaul tourist air travel, is discussed with the conclusion that indirect impacts of climate change in terms of changing travel preferences in key European markets triggered by carbon taxes and concern for GHG emissions has the potential to be a greater threat to New Zealand than the short-term direct impacts of climate change, as outlined in a global context in Chapter 2 by Rodrı´ guez-Camino and Chapter 3 by Cabrini. While many initiatives to mitigate GHG emissions exist in New Zealand, the key challenge of the

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country’s reliance on air travel cannot readily be solved. It is perceivable that destinations will increasingly compete on the amount of carbon emitted to reach a certain destination due to both departure taxes, which increase in line with the distance that will be traveled (from United Kingdom airports, for instance), and a growing carbon-conscience among tourists. For instance, nature-based destinations that require roughly half as many flight hours from the United Kingdom compared to New Zealand, such as Chile, may gain market share from New Zealand. The implications for remote tourism-dependent island nations (the Maldives, the Seychelles, numerous South Pacific island nations) that are additionally considered vulnerable to the direct natural impacts of a changing climate are particularly sobering. As Agarin et al discuss in Chapter 15 in the context of the Baltic States, the direct, indirect, and induced impacts of climate change on tourism may also provide new opportunities for certain regions, but as conjectured in an extreme 2050 scenario by Yeoman and Wouters (Chapter 16), all destinations will ultimately have to adjust and adapt to altered patterns of tourism consumption, whether perceived as beneficial or detrimental. Equally, technological innovation (Staal for Philips Hospitality in Chapter 9) and innovation at destination level (DeLacy and Lipman in Chapter 17) will be critical factors in this adjustment process as we progress further into this era defined by climate change. Developing effective methodologies to quantify a sector’s contribution to a country’s total GHG emissions (Dwyer et al in Chapter 11) will provide important tools to achieve comparability across different countries and sectors, thus allowing for more informed decisions to be made, particularly at the strategic levels of government. However, Chapters 12 by Burns et al, 13 by Dodds and Graci, and 8 by Briggs note that tourists’ and managers’ levels of concern about climate change do not appear to be as high as some would expect. This raises the question as to whether this observation is due to a lack of awareness about the causes and effects of climate change, or whether this is an indication that people understand the basic science but do not consider the information to be alarming; or whether a large part of the population (tourism supply and demand) are skeptical of climate change and challenge the inferences proposed by many climate scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As the debate and accusations between different camps in relation to climate change sciences and climate change projections continue and are fueled by the media, progress will be hindered and opportunities lost. Resolving these issues will continue to be a challenge for academics and practitioners alike and will require collaboration between these stakeholders

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as well as with the public sector, nongovernmental organizations, and destination communities. The importance of ongoing research into the interrelationships between climate change and tourism cannot be stressed enough and will provide the basis for discussion and action to ensure that tourism can maintain its ability to spread its positive impacts.

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About the Authors

Timofey Agarin oEmail: [email protected] is a Research Fellow at the European Centre for Minority Issues in Flensburg, Germany. His work focuses on central-eastern European states and their relations with national and transnational nongovernmental organizations. His research interests include cooperation between civil society groups and the government across the postsocialist states in the context of global environmental change. Lyn Bibbings oEmail: [email protected] combines her academic role as Principal Lecturer at Oxford Brookes University with tourism industry responsibilities as a Non-Executive Director of Tourism South East in the United Kingdom. She is past chair of the Association for Tourism in Higher Education, Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and is a Director and Fellow of the Tourism Society. Her present research is looking at behavioral and cultural attitudes toward climate change in the tourism sector. Paulina Bohdanowicz oEmail: [email protected] is a Sustainability Manager at Hilton Worldwide and holds the position of a Visiting Fellow at the International Centre for Responsible Tourism at Leeds Metropolitan University in the United Kingdom. Her area of interest includes corporate social responsibility and environmental issues in the hotel and tourism industry, with a particular focus on energy aspects, benchmarking, and ecocertification. Lynn Briggs oEmail: [email protected] is Marketing Manager of KEA Campers for the Australia and New Zealand region. She is particularly interested in sustainability from a communications and change management perspective believing that in order for a business to truly adopt a sustainable business model, change must begin with a company’s values and culture as well as be firmly supported by senior management. Peter M. Burns oEmail: [email protected] is Professor and founding Director of the Centre for Tourism Policy Studies at the University of Brighton in the United Kingdom and an Academician of the Academy of Social Sciences. He has authored articles and books on tourism, society, and the developing world. He has worked as a consultant with UNWTO and the World Bank and is presently policy adviser to the World Travel and Tourism Council on climate change.

364

About the Authors

Luigi Cabrini oEmail: [email protected] is the Director of the United Nations World Tourism Organisation’s Sustainable Development Program in Madrid (Spain). In this role, his mission is to promote the sustainable development of tourism in line with the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism with special focus on the Millennium Development Goals. Luigi is the author of various articles, speeches, and conference papers in the area of tourism and sustainability. Terry DeLacy oEmail: [email protected] is Professor in Sustainable Tourism at Victoria University in Melbourne, Australia. He leads a research program on tourism and climate change. He was previously CEO of the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Center in Australia where he led the development of the Earthcheck sustainability benchmarking system that underpins the Green Globe certification system. Working with Geoffrey Lipman he has coordinated the development of the GreenEarth.travel approach for destinations. Rachel Dodds oEmail: [email protected] is an Associate Professor in the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Ryerson University in Canada. She was a co-founder of The Icarus Foundation and provides consulting on sustainable tourism worldwide. She has authored numerous publications on sustainable tourism, corporate social responsibility, islands and urban sustainability. Larry Dwyer oEmail: [email protected] is Qantas Professor of Travel and Tourism Economics in the Australian School of Business at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. He is President of the International Association for Tourism Economics and has authored many journal publications, books and government reports on the topics of tourism economics, tourism policy and planning, and tourism management. Peter Forsyth oEmail: [email protected] is Professor of Economics at Monash University in Australia. Most of his research has focused on applied microeconomics, with particular reference to transport/aviation economics, tourism economics, and the economics of regulation. Recent work has included research on climate change policies for aviation and tourism and using computable general equilibrium models to assess the economic impacts of tourism, as well as in analyzing tourism and aviation policy issues. Sonya Graci oEmail: [email protected] is an Assistant Professor at the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Ryerson University in Canada. She is also a co-founder of The Icarus Foundation and Director of Accommodating Green, a consultancy which provides

About the Authors

365

expertise to communities and businesses worldwide on sustainable tourism development and implementation. Her research primarily focuses on sustainable tourism development, partnerships, stakeholder management, and community capacity development. Stephanie Haskell oEmail: [email protected] is Business Development Manager at Catchlight Design Ltd in Christchurch, New Zealand. With a background in marketing, brand development, and copywriting, she is especially interested in the field of green marketing in which businesses market their services in alignment with a shift in consumer attitudes toward a greater concern for the environment. Serajul Hoque oEmail: [email protected] is a Research Fellow in the Department of Economics at Monash University in Australia with affiliation to the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Center (STCRC), Center for Economics and Policy in Australia. His main area of expertise is the application of large scale, multisectoral and multiregional computable general equilibrium models for policy analysis, especially in relation to tourism. Jens Jetzkowitz oEmail: [email protected] is Senior Researcher at the Institute of Socio-Economics of the Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) in Germany. He currently works as part of a research group investigating ecosystem services. His research interests include environmental and cultural sociology as well as comparative studies, focusing on the coevolution of ecosystems with human styles of living and acting. Ross A. Klein oEmail: [email protected] is Professor of Social Work and Adjunct Professor of Tourism at Memorial University of Newfoundland in Canada. He is an international authority on the cruise industry and its environmental record. He has written four books on the cruise industry and authored six reports for nongovernmental organizations concerned about cruise tourism and the environment. He is also an Associate of the International Centre for Responsible Tourism. Geoffrey Lipman oEmail: [email protected] is a Principal at Schuman Associates in Brussels, Belgium, Advisor to the Secretary General UNWTO and the World Economic Forum and Adjunct Professor of Tourism at Victoria University, Australia. His previous roles include Assistant Secretary General UNWTO, founding President of World Travel and Tourism Council, and Executive Director IATA. He has established many initiatives, including Agenda 21 for the Travel and Tourism Industry, Green Globe, ST-EP, Earth Lung, and is leading GreenEarth.travel. Andreas Matzarakis oEmail: [email protected]. deW is a Professor at the University of Freiburg in Germany. His research

366

About the Authors

focuses on urban climatology, biometeorology, tourism climatology, and climate impact research. He established and continues to maintain the urban climate website. He is Vice President of the International Society of Biometeorology and chairs its Commission on Climate, Tourism and Recreation. He has developed several tools in applied climatology, including RayMan software, Climate Mapping Tool, and the Climate-TourismInformation-Scheme. Taciano L. Milfont oEmail: [email protected] is Lecturer in the School of Psychology at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. His research interests are in applied psychology and primarily center on the role of psychology in helping to solve current environmental issues. He is a pioneer in the field of environmental psychology in New Zealand and has published extensively in this area. He is also an editorial board member for the Journal of Environmental Psychology. Douglas G. Pearce oEmail: [email protected] is Professor of Tourism Management at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. His interest in climate change is an extension of ongoing research on tourism planning, development, and destination management. Most recently his research focused on tourism distribution channels in New Zealand. He is a former Vice President of the International Academy for the Study of Tourism and serves on the editorial boards of a number of journals. Paul Peeters oEmail: [email protected] is Associate Professor at Breda University of Applied Sciences in the Netherlands. His key research interest is the impact of tourism on climate change and his publications cover a wide range of topics such as air transport technology, global and regional tourism and climate scenarios, system dynamic approaches to tourism, and tourism transport mode choice and modal shift. Andy Reisinger oEmail: [email protected] is Senior Research Fellow in the Climate Change Research Institute at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. His research focuses on impacts and adaptation options to climate change across sectors, with a focus on adaptation policies and risk-management. Previously, he was responsible for managing the production of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and worked as Senior Adviser on climate change policy to the New Zealand government. Ernesto Rodrı´ guez-Camino oEmail: [email protected] is a Senior Meteorologist at Spain’s Meteorological Agency (AEMET) in Madrid. He is an expert in atmospheric numerical modeling and heads the Climate Assessment and Modeling Section for Spain. His research interests include atmospheric modeling, surface processes, treatment of heterogeneity in

About the Authors

367

surface processes, climate change scenarios, and the treatment of uncertainty in climate change projections. Christian Schott oEmail: [email protected] is Senior Lecturer in Tourism Management at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. He has a wide-ranging interest in Sustainable Tourism with a particular focus on the environmental impacts of tourism, ecolabels, and climate change. This has seen him involved in several academic and consultancy research projects in New Zealand and abroad. Other current research interests of his are tourist motivation, youth and self development. Ray Spurr oEmail: [email protected] is the Director of the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Center (STCRC), Center for Economics and Policy in Australia, and a Senior Research Fellow at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. His research interests include tourism economics, especially in relation to estimating the economic contribution of tourism and modeling of the impacts of tourism and tourism change on the economy, and tourism policy and planning. Wouter Staal oEmail: [email protected] is the Marketing Manager for Philips Hospitality in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region and based in Eindhoven in the Netherlands. He started working for Philips three years ago, and has held several international marketing roles after having gained initial marketing experience at Nike. Throughout his career the hospitality industry has always been at the forefront of his work and research interests. Jonathan Tunnell oEmail: [email protected] is Sustainability Coordinator at the Youth Hostels Association of New Zealand. He is based in Christchurch, New Zealand, and has worked in the field of environmental management for over five years. He is passionate about the integration of environmental sustainability with economic sustainability in order to add value to an institution’s financial bottom line. Mariska Wouters oEmail: [email protected] is Policy Analyst in Social Development working in the New Zealand local government sector. She is based in Wellington, New Zealand, and her research interests include public participation in decisionmaking and valuing community projects through measuring social capital and economic benefits. She also has a long-standing research interest in the environmental impacts of tourism in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic environments. Agnes Wrobel oEmail: [email protected] has completed her degree in International Tourism Management at the Centre for Tourism Policy Studies, University of Brighton (a joint degree with the International University Bad-Honnef in Germany). In addition to working on a project

368

About the Authors

examining cyber communities’ concern about climate change, she investigated internal corporate attitudes to sustainability messages at Lufthansa in Brussels as part of her studies. Ian Yeoman oEmail: [email protected] is Futurist and Associate Professor of Tourism Management at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. He previously worked as a scenario planner for VisitScotland and is presently involved in a number of projects examining the future of tourism in New Zealand and Holland. His recent books include ‘‘Demography and Tourism’’, ‘‘Tomorrow’s Tourist’’, and ‘‘Revenue Management: A Practical Pricing Perspective’’. Piotr Zientara oEmail: [email protected] is currently a Lecturer at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Gdan´sk in Poland as well as Lecturer in Management at the European School of Hospitality, Tourism and Entrepreneurship. His research interests include human resource management and corporate social responsibility in the hospitality industry and tourism. His other interests include industrial relations and regional development.