Encyclopaedia of Biological Disaster Management: vol. 7. Biological Disaster Management: Major Events and Existing Framework

Biological Disaster Management

Vol. 7

Biological Disaster Management

305

Contents Preface

1. Protection from Global Risks

1

2. The most Probable Scenario of Global Catastrophe

61

3. Methodology of the Analysis of Global Risks

67

4. Errors, Possible only Concerning Threats to Mankind Existence

72

5. Influence an Estimation of Global Risks

90

6. Reasonings on Global Risks

127

7. Possible Rules

153

8. Final Warning: A History of the New World Order

157

9. The Beginning of Monetary Control

222

Bibliography

300

Index

303

Preface The twentieth century witnessed the creation and development of Weapons of Mass Destruction: nuclear, chemical, and biological. While such weapons have been used in major wars, regional conflicts, and terrorism, this chapter will focus on the latter. Weapons of Mass Destruction all have the potential to create mass casualties, public panic, and enormous property destruction. They represent an existing and growing security and safety risk for all the citizens of the world. Terrorists now have an improved ability to collect information, raise money, and disseminate rhetoric. Advanced information technology available through the Internet allows extremists to communicate widely and efficiently. Additionally, publicly available databases serve as repositories for technical information relating to weapons production. Another important factor is that Weapons of Mass Destruction, together with the materials and technology used to make them, are increasingly available. Many of these materials are widely available for legitimate commercial purposes. Moreover, the disintegration of the former Soviet Union has increased concerns about the protection, control, and accountability of Weapons of Mass Destruction, related materials and technologies, and the potential unemployment and proliferation of thousands of scientists skilled in the field. Afinal factor is the relative ease of manufacture and delivery of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Facilities required to produce radiological, biological, and chemical weapons are small and hard to detect, compared with those associated with nuclear weapons. In this book we will discuss about the Biological Disaster and their impacts on the environment, society and coming generations. — Author

Protection from Global Risks

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1 Protection from Global Risks Obviously, if we can find out that there are several simple, clear and reliable ways to confront global catastrophe, we will significantly improve our safety, and a number of global risks will cease to threaten us. On the contrary, if it turns out that all the proposed measures and remedies have their flaws that make them at best ineffective and at worst - dangerous, we need to invent something radically new. It seems that the protection system - at each phase of development of global risk - should perform the following functions: • Monitoring. • Analysis of information and action. • Destruction of the source of threat. That strategy worked well in counterintelligence, counterterrorism and military affairs. Another strategy involves the flight from the source of the threat (of space settlements, bunkers). Clearly, this second strategy is to be applied in case of failure of the first (or simultaneously with it, just in case). Global risks vary in the degree of how they might prevent. For example, is actually to ban a class of dangerous experiments on accelerators, if the scientific community will come to the conclusion that these experiments pose some risk. As the world has only few large accelerators, which are managed quite openly, so that the scientists themselves do not wish to disaster and not have any benefits, it seems very simple to cancel the experiments. In fact, it needs only a general understanding of their risks. That is the most preventable risk - the risk that:

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Waive from actions that lead to certain risk (for example, prohibit the sort of dangerous technologies), it is easy only if certain conditions: • If the dangerous process is created only by human beings. • If these processes are set up in a small number of wellknown places. (How, for example, physical experiments on the huge accelerators) • If people are not waiting for any benefits from these processes. • If the hazardous processes is predictable as to the time of its inception, and in the process of development. • If the dangerous objects and processes are easily recognizable. That is, we easily, quickly and surely know that some dangerous situation has started, and we appreciate the degree of risk. • If we have enough time to develop and adopt adequate measures. Accordingly, the risks that are difficult to prevent, characterized by the fact that: They are difficult to predict, it is difficult to assume their potential. (Even assuming that SETI might be a risk, it was difficult.) • Even if someone is aware of this risk, it is extremely difficult to convince in it anyone else (examples: the difficulties in the knowledge about AI and SETI as a source of risk, difficulties of proof of the Doomsday Argument). • Even in case of public consensus that such risks are really dangerous, this does not mean that people voluntarily abandon this source of risk. (Examples: nuclear weapons.) Last is because: 1. The sources of risk available to many people, and who are these people is not known (you can put on a register of all nuclear physicists, but not of selftought hackers).

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2. The sources of risk is in unknown location and / or easy to hide (biolabs). 3. The risks is established unhuman natural factors, or as a result of interaction of human action and natural factors. 4. The source of danger promises not only risks, but also benefits, in particular, in case of weapon. 5. Time of emergency of the risk is unpredictable, as well as the manner in which it will develop. 6. The dangerous situation is difficult to identify as such, it requires a lot of time and contains an element of uncertainty. (For example, it is difficult to determine that sort of new bacteria is dangerous until it infect someone and had not yet reached such proportions when you can understand that this is epidemic.) 7. The dangerous process evolving faster than we have time to adequately respond to it. Certain risks are preventable, but that should not lead to that they should be dismissed from the account since it does not necessarily mean that the risk will eventually be prevented. For example, the asteroid danger is among the relatively easily preventable risks, but we don’t have real anti-asteroid (and, more importantly, anti-comet) protection system. And while it doesn’t exist, preventable threat remains purely hypothetical, because we do not know how effective and safe will be future protection, whether it appear at all, and if one appears, when.

ACTIVE SHIELDS It was suggested as a means of preventing global risks to create all sorts of active shields. Active Shield is a means of monitoring and influensing on the source of risk across the globe. In fact, this is analogous to the immune system across the globe. The most obvious example is the idea of creating a global missile defense system (ABM). Activity shields means that they may relatively autonomously respond to any stimulus, which lays under the definition of the threat. Protection of the shield completely covers the Earth’s surface. It is clear that an autonomous shield is dangerous because

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of possible uncontrolled behavior, and became an absolute weapon in the hands of those who operate it. As we know from discussions about the ABM, even if the active shield is entirely defensive weapon, it still gives the advantage to attack for the protected side, because it may not fear of retribution. Comparison of active shields with the human immune system as an ideal form of protection, is not correct, because human immune system is not ideal. It provides a statistical survival of a species by the fact that some live beings from the specie lives on average quite long. But it does not provide unlimited individual survival. Everyone was infected by diseases during lifetime, and many died of diseases. For any person could be found disease, which kills him. In addition, the immune system works well when exactly knows the pathogen. If it does not know, it would take time, for pathogen to show up, and another time for the immune system to develop the answer. The same thing happens with computer antivirus programms, which also are an active shield: While they provide sustainable existence of all computers, each computer from time to time is still infected with a virus, and the data is often it lost. In addition, antivirus does not protect against new virus, for which is not yet sent updates, but after a time in which new virus will infect a certain number of computers. If there was threat of gray goo, we understand that this is gray goo, only after it has spread. However, there are immune systems operating on the principle: everything is forbidden, that is not allowed, but they also can be deceived, and they are more likely to autoimmune reactions. In short, the immune system is good only when there is a strong redundancy in the main system. We do not yet have the potential for duplication of terrestrial living conditions and space settlements face a number of policy challenges. In addition, all immune systems have false positives, which are in autoimmune diseases - such as allergies and diabetes - which have a significant contribution to human mortality, on the order of magnitude comparable to the contribution of cancer and infectious diseases. If the immune system is too rigid, it creates autoimmune disease, but if too soft - it misses some risk. Since the immune system

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covers all protected object, the output of its failure poses a threat to all sites (here the principle of the spread of hazards destruction). The terrorist attack on the immune system makes the whole system defenseless. So is AIDS, which is the faster spread, the more it’s immune system fights because he was inside it. Widely are discussed ideas of Bioshield and Nanoshield. These shields involve spraying across the surface of the Earth thousands of trillions of control devices that can quickly verify any agents at risk and quickly destroy dangerous. Further tighten controls on the Internet and spread around the world CCTV monitoring cameras are also kinds of active shields. However, on an example of a global missile defense system could be seen many significant problems with any active shields: 1. They are painfully lagging behind the source of threat in time to develop. 2. They must act immediately throughout the Earth, without exception. The more pinpoint is threat, the denser should be the shield. 3. They have already caused serious political complications. If the shield does not cover the entire surface of the Earth, it could create a situation of strategic instability. 4. Any shield is created on the basis of more advanced technologies than the treat which it controls, and so this new technologies could create their own level of threts. 5. The shield can be a source of global risk in itself, if he starts some autoimmune reaction, that is, it will destroy what it was supposed to protect. Or if the control over the shield will be lost, and it will defend itself against their hosts. Or if its false alarm will cause war. 6. The shield can not be completely reliable - that is, the success of its operation is a probabilistic nature. Then, in the case of a continuing global threat issue of its failure is just a matter of time. 7. The shield should have centralized management, but autonomy on the ground for rapid response. For example, antiasteroid shield will create many new challenges to human security. First, it will provide technology for

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precise control asteroids, which account for the small impacts can be directed to the Earth, and secretly, in the spirit of cryptowars. Secondly, a shield himself can be used for an attack on Earth. For example, if a higher orbit will hang 50 gigatons bomb, ready to rush to anywhere in the solar system, we will not feel more secure. The third, there are suggestions that movement of asteroids over billions of years of good synchronize, and any violation of this balance can lead to the same asteroid will become a constant threat, regularly passing near the Earth. Especially this will be dangerous if humanity after the intervention will fail to postapocaliptic level. • Note that each of dangerous technologies can be a means of own preventing: • Missiles stray missiles through missile defense. • At the places of production of nuclear weapons affixed nuclear strikes. • AI controls the entire world for it has not created the wrong AI. • Biosensors not let tospread biological weapons. • Nano shield protects against nanorobots. Most shield often do something exactly opposite to that for which they were created. For example, is considered (Bellona report, the chapter of IV.1. Three cracks Non-proliferation treaty), that the Non-Proliferation Treaty poorly coping with the black market, but do good job with the proliferation of peaceful atom (i.e. construction in all countries who wish so, research nuclear reactors) that have dual-use technologies. Strong doors that protect the cockpit after the attacks of September 11, will not allow terrorists to infiltrate into the cabin, but if they did there would be (for example, because the pilot himself would be a terrorist), the passengers and stewards will not be able to stop them. If there is a flight control system from the ground, it appears the chance to seize the aircraft using the system by radio. Finally, all shields that were proposed based on the assumption that we have a sort of ideal system, which supervises and controls the other, less perfect system. For example, perfect militia controls the imperfect society. If the police are corrupt, the department of

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its own security controls it, and so on. Obviously, such an ideal system does not exist in reality, since the monitoring system and controlled object made from a single test. One can imagine a multi-hierarchical system boards, but in this case, there is a risk of division between different regulatory systems. Finally, any shield has a blind spot – it cannot control its own management center.

EXISTING AND FUTURE SHIELDS Here, we present a brief, but as far as possible the complete list of shields, which already created or are likely to evolve in the future. 1) Global missile defense system. It suffers from political and technological problems, and is ready only in the embryonic stage. 2) IAEA. It works, but properly. Missed several military nuclear programs. 3) Global fight against drugs. Located in balance with its problem - constrained to some degree, but no more. 4) The system of total surveillance information that could be called Orwell control in honor anti-utopia 1984 of Orwell, where such a system is described vividly. Control system for each person using video cams, chip for identification, tracking of the Internet, interception of telephone conversations. Technically, the system is achievable, but in reality it has deployed only a few percent of what could be done, but it has actively developed. It is already becoming evident and openly discussed the problems of the system related to legitimacy, international, blind zones hackers. In theory, could form the basis for all other control systems, as well as possibly control over the conduct of all human beings enough so as not to appear dangerous bio, nano and AI devices (and not pick already finished dangerous devices in the environment). 5). Mind-control. This system involves implantation into the brain controlling some chips (or the making of thoughts by analyzing encephalogram – we already have results on this road). This may not be as hard as it seems, if we find

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6)

10)

11)

12)

13)

a group of cells, on which are projected internal dialogue and emotional states. Something like this is now lie detector. Such a device could solve the problem even of spontaneous crimes, such as sudden aggression. On the other hand, the potential misuse of such technology is unlimited. If using such a system would be managed by people, it could get wrong command to destroy all of humanity. (The same problem arises with the proposed as a measure against terrorists of the flight control system aircraft from the ground: while it will reduce the risk of capture of a single aircraft, it will create a theoretical possibility at the same time to intercept control over all located in air planes and implement with their assistance massive ram on buildings or nuclear reactors.) Finally, it will not give absolute protection because it can crack, and also because some disaster is not evil intent, but from thoughtlessness. Anti-asteroid defense. A surveillance of potentially dangerous objects exists, but insufficient funds to intercept has not been formally developed. (But Deep Impact probe in 2005 was used for the collision with comet Tempel, leaving the body comets formed crater, and its trajectory is slightly different.) BioSchield. The fight against bioterrorism is currently at the level of intelligence and international agreements to control. There are recommendations for the safe development of biotechnology (ranging from voluntary self-taken restriction in Asilomare 70-ies and in the book Guide for biocontrol; however, a number of proposed restrictions have not yet been adopted.) NanoSchield. In preliminary discussions. There are recommendations for safe design, developed by the Center of Responsible Nanotechnologies. AI-shield. Protection from creating a hostile AI. In Singularity Institute in California (SIAI) is discussed security issues for a strong AI, that is the problem of his friendliness. There are recommendations for safe construction. Regular police and security services.

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We can also describe the time sequence in the response shields in the case of a dangerous situation. The first level of defense is to maintain civilization as a conscious, peaceful, balanced state and in preparing to work on the prevention of risks at all other levels. At this level is important information exchange, open discussions, published in edited volumes, fundraising, advocacy, education and investment. The second is to direct computer control of human beings and dangerous systems, so that the situation of global risk in general could not occur. At this level are the IAEA action, global video surveillance and interception of Internet communications, etc. The third - in quelling the created danger by using missiles and antinanorobts etc. This level, is similar to of ABM systems to protect against weapons of mass destruction. Fourth - to escape from the Earth or hiding in bunkers (although the precautionary principle implies that it would begin to do so even at the same time as the first item). SAVING THE WORLD BALANCE OF POWER The new technologies can disturb military-political balance in the world, providing to one of the sides the unprecedented possibilities. Eric Dreksler describes problem as follows: “In the search for middle way, we could attempt to find the balance of forces, based on the balance of technologies. This would, apparently, enlarge the situation, which preserved the specific measure of peaceful co-existence for a period of four decades. But the keyword here - “apparently”: the future breakthroughs will be too swift and destabilizing so that the old balance could continue existence. In the past the country could experience technological delay by several years and nevertheless support approximate military balance. However, with the rapid replicator and advanced AI, delay on only one day could be fatal”. Briefly stated, the more rapidly the technologies are developed, the less the chances, that they will be located in the equilibrium in the different countries, and also with the forces of restraining and control. The conscious disturbance of balance is also dangerous: attempt of one of the countries explicitly to leave “in the detachment” in the sphere of military super-technologies can provoke its enemies to the

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aggression according to the principle “attack under the threat of the loss of advantage”. POSSIBLE SYSTEM OF CONTROL OVER THE GLOBAL RISKS Any protection from the global risk rests on the certain system of global observation and control. The more dangerous the risk and the greater the number of places in which it can arise, the more total and more effective must be this system of control. Example of the contemporary system of control is the IAEA. Shields also can be control system, or contain it in themselves as special structure. But Shields can act locally and autonomously as immune system, and control system assumes collection and transmission of data to the one united center. The final version of this global control would be “Orwell state”, where from each angle it would look video camera, or chips would be established into the brain of each person, to say nothing of computers. Alas, with respect to video surveillance this is the already almost realized version. But in the houses this can be realized technically at any moment - everywhere, where are the computers with constant Internet. A question is faster not in the observation, but in transfer and, especially, analysis of these data. Without the aid of AI to us it would be difficult to verify entire this information. Attractive appear has the systems of mutual accountability and the civil vigilances, moved as alternative to totalitarian state in the combating of terrorism, where due to the absolute transparency each can control each, but with respect to their possibility there is thus far much obscure. Problems: • In order to be by effective, this system of control it must cover entire terrestial globe without the exception. This is impossible without the certain form of united authority. • Any system of control can be misleading - so to truly effective monitoring system should be multiple redundant. • It is not enough to observe everyone, it is necessary to analyze this entire information in real time that is impossible without AI or totalitarian government apparatus. Furthermore, this top will not be able to control itself, therefore, it will be required the system of its reverse

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accountability either of people or “the service of domestic security”. • Such a system would be contrary to perceptions of democracy and freedom, which emerged in European civilization, and cause fierce resistance until the spread of terrorism. Such a system of total control will cause the temptation to apply it not only against global risk, but also against any kind of law, pending cases, the use of not polite-correct speech and listen to unlicensed music. • Those who control it must have a full and fair representation of all global risks. If it will only biological risks, but not the creation of artificial and dangerous physical experiments, the system will be inferiority. It is very difficult to distinguish a dangerous biological experiments from safe ones - in all cases are used DNA sequencer and experiments in mice. Without reading thoughts of a scientist does not understand that he was conceived. The system does not protect from accidental dangerous experiments. • Since such a system should have delivered all around the world, it can simplify use of any weapons that affects every human being. In other words, the seizure of power over the system of total world control would give authority over all people and make for it easier to do with them anything, including harm. For example, you can send out by mail some medicine and check that all people had swollen it. Those who refused – would be arrested. Thus, a system of total control seems the most obvious way to counter global risks. However, it contains a number of pitfalls that can transform itself into a global risk factor. In addition, the system of total control implies a totalitarian state, which, being equipped with the means of production in the form of robots, may lose the need for human beings at all. CONSCIOUS STOP OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS There are often proposals for stop of technical progress by violent manner, or by appeal to the conscience of scientists in order to prevent global risks. There are various options on how

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to implement this stop and all of them do not work or contain pitfalls: 1. Personal denial of the development of new technologies – have virtually nothing on impact. There will always be others who will do it. 2. Agitation, education, social action or terrorism as a means of forcing people to abandon the development of dangerous technologies - are not working. As Yudkowsky writes: Any strategy that requires unanimous action by all people, is doomed to failure. 3. Waiver of technological innovation on a certain territory, for example, one country, unable to stop the technological advances in other countries. Moreover, if a responsible country abandon development of a technology, the garland move to a more irresponsible countries. 4. World agreement. For example, the IAEA, we know how badly it works. 5. The conquest of the world by force, which could regulate the development of technology. But in the process of the conquest there are greater chances of using Doomsday weapons by the nuclear powers, at risk of loss of sovereignty. In addition, the words of Dreksler: Furthermore, the winning force would itself a major technological power with a huge military power and the demonstrated willingness to use it. Can we trust in this case such force that it suppress their own progress? (Engines of creation.) 6. The peaceful unification of nations in the face of threat, just as the UN emerged in the years of Fascism, and delegated their power to stop progress in those countries that do not want to join this association. This is probably the best option, which brings together the dignity of all previous and mitigate their shortcomings. But it would be feasible only if the overall threat becomes apparent. 7. Nick Bostrom suggested the concept of differential technological development, when projects that increase our security, are stimulated and accelerated, while

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potentially dangerous projects artificially slowing. Thus, controlling the speed of development of different areas of knowledge, we get more secure combination of attack and defense technologies. MEANS OF PREVENTIVE STRIKE It is not enough to have a system of total control - you need to have the opportunity to prevent the risk. Now strike by nuclear forces missile at a point of source of risk is considered as last mean of defense. (Like destroying of biolaboratory, there dangerous virus was recently created.) Here, there is curiously inconsistent with the programs of construction of bunkers for survival - if such a bunker will be secret and invincible, it would be difficult to destroy. Moreover, they must contain a fully equipped laboratory and scholars in the event of disaster. It is therefore possible that a superweapon will be created in a bunker (for example, in the Soviet Union was created underground nuclear plant to continue production of nuclear weapons in the event of a protracted nuclear war.) People who are already inside effective bunker, may be more psychologically inclined to create super weapon to strike on the surface. Consequently, either bunkers will pose a threat to human survival, or means of a preventive strike would destroy all the bunkers, which could be used for human survival after a certain disaster. However strike on the one point in space does not work against any systemic crisis, nor against some dangerous information. Computer virus could not be cured by nuclear strike. As well such strike will not get rid of people of addiction to superdrug. Next, attack is possible as long as a risk has not spread from the point. If a recipe of supervirus run into the Internet, it would be impossible to catch it back. Already, the modern military machine is powerless against net threats such as terrorist networks, giving metastases throughout the world. Similarly, in the future computer virus is not just a threat to the information on the disk: it could make computer-managed factories around the world and invisibly make certain own physical media (say, in the form of microscopic robots or software bookmarks in conventional

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products), and through them again could run into the network (for example, connecting by radio). Finally, the strike (or even the possibility of it) will create a situation of strategic instability. For example, now strike by ballistic missile with a conventional warhead on terrorists location may cause a start of early warning system of likely opponent, and lead to war. Finally, the strike takes time. This time should be less then time from detecting the development of the threat until the moment of its transition into an irreversible phase (for example, if you attack gray goo, it is important to destroy it before it was able to reproduce in billions of copies and spread throughout the Earth). Now the time from detection to strike to any point on Earth is less than 2 hours, and can be reduced to minutes by satellite weapons. (However, the decision-making take more time.) If from the decision moment of writing code of dangerous virus before its launch would take place only 15 minutes, then that speed would be insufficient. And this speed obviously is not enough, if in some place began spraying of dangerous airborne nanorobots. Efficiency of strike on a starting point of a risk will essentially change after the foundation of space colonies (at least purely robotic - there too can be a failure which will transform a colony in “cancer” - that is inclined to unlimited self-reproduction and distribution of “toxins”: dangerous nanorobots, superbombs and other; but the most perspective is namely outer space exploration by means of the self-breeding robots using local materials,). In time, while the signal about danger will pass, say, from the satellite of Jupiter to the Earth, and then from the Earth fighting “fleet” (that is rockets with nuclear warheads) will arrive there and fight with nanorobots to put things in order (to burn down all successively), it would be already too late. Certainly, it is possible to hold “fleet” in an orbit of each satellite of a planet or an asteroid where is capable to self-reproduction robotics colonies, but what if mutation will occur on the fleet? Then the fleet which supervises other fleet is necessary, and floats between satellites of the planets. And then one more interplanetary fleet for the control over them. More shortly, the situation does not look strategically stable, - that is above certain level of the monitoring system start to stir each

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other. Probably, inability to supervise remote colonies leads to that to civilisations is favourable to become isolated on a parent planet - this is one more decision of paradox of Fermi. REMOVAL OF SOURCES OF RISKS ON CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE FROM THE EARTH It is theoretically possible to remove sources of risks from the Earth, first of all it concerns dangerous physical experiments. The problems connected with this approach: • Having received in hands means to create powerful experimental installations far from the Earth, we also will have possibilities quickly to deliver results of experiments back. • It cannot stop some people from similar experiments on the Earth, especially if they are simple. • It will not protect us from creation of dangerous strong AI as it can spread via information. • Even behind orbit of Pluto are possible dangerous experiments which will affect the Earth. • it is difficult to know in advance, which experiments should be made behind orbit of Pluto. • There are no technical possibilities to deliver an large quantity of equipment for orbit of Pluto during the nearest decades, especially without use of dangerous technologies in the form of self-reproduced robots. CREATION OF INDEPENDENT SETTLEMENTS IN THE REMOTE CORNERS OF THE EARTH Creation of such settlements, no less than skills of a survival in the wild nature, hardly will help in a case of really global catastrophe as it would cover all surface of the Earth (if it is a certain unintelligent agent), or find out all people (if it is the intelligent agent). The independent settlement is vulnerable both to the first, and to the second - if only it is not armed secret base but then it passes, more likely, under the type “bunkers”. If it is a question of a survival after very big, but not final catastrophe it is necessary to recollect experience of food

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recollecting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prodrazvyorstka and collective farms in Russia, - the city force dominates over village and selects its surpluses. In case of system crisis the main danger will be represented by other people. Not without reason in the fantastic novel Metro 2033 the basic coin is a cartridge from Kalashnikov’s automatic machine. And till there will be more cartridges than peasants, it will be more favourable to plunder, instead of to grow up. Probably also full dissolution of human in the nature in the spirit of Feral child. However it is improbable, that thus at least some representatives of specie Homo sapiens can go through really global catastrophe. Creation of the file on global risks and growth of public understanding of the problematics connected with them The publication of books and articles on a theme of global risks leads to growth of comprehension of a problem in a society and to drawing up of more exact list of global risks. The interdisciplinary approach allows to compare different risks and to consider possibility of their complex interaction. Difficulties of the given approach: • It is not clear, to whom exactly any such texts are addressed. • Terrorists, the countries derelicts and regular armies can take advantage of ideas about creation of global risks from the published texts that will result to bigger increase in risks, than to their prevention. • Wrong and premature capital investments can lead to disappointment in struggle against risks - just when this struggle actually will be required. REFUGES AND BUNKERS Different sort of a refuge and bunkers can increase chances of survival of the mankind in case of global catastrophe, however the situation with them is not simple. Separate independent refuges can exist for decades, but the more they are independent and long-time, the more efforts are necessary for their preparation in advance. Refuges should provide ability for the mankind to the further self-reproduction. Hence, they should contain not only enough of capable to reproduction people, but also a stock of technologies which will allow to survive and breed in territory

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which is planned to render habitable after an exit from the refuge. The more this territory will be polluted, the higher level of technologies is required for a reliable survival. Very big bunker will appear capable to continue in itself development of technologies and after catastrophe. However in this case it will be vulnerable to the same risks, as all terrestrial civilisation - there can be internal terrorists, AI, nanorobots, leaks etc. If the bunker is not capable to continue itself development of technologies it, more likely, is doomed to degradation. Further, the bunker can be or civilizational, that is keep the majority of cultural and technological achievements of the civilisation, or “specific”, that is keep only human life. For “long” bunkers (which are prepared for long-term stay) the problem of formation and education of children and risks of degradation will rise. The bunker can or live for the account of the resources which have been saved up before catastrophe, or be engaged in own manufacture. In last case it will be simply underground civilisation on the infected planet. The more a bunker is constructed on modern technologies and independent cultural and technically, the higher amount of people should live there (but in the future it will be not so: the bunker on the basis of advanced nanotechnology can be even at all deserted, - only with the frozen human embryos). To provide simple reproduction by means of training to the basic human trades, thousand people are required. These people should be selected and be in the bunker before final catastrophe, and, it is desirable, on a constant basis. However it is improbable, that thousand intellectually and physically excellent people would want to sit in the bunker “just in case”. In this case they can be in the bunker in two or three changes and receive for it a salary. (Now in Russia begins experiment Mars 500 in which 6 humans will be in completely independent - on water, to meal, air - for 500 days. Possibly, it is the best result which we now have. In the early nineties in the USA there was also a project Biosphera-2 in which people should live two years on full self-maintenance under a dome in desert. The project has ended with partial failure as oxygen level in system began to fall because of unforeseen reproduction of microorganisms and insects.) As additional risk

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for bunkers it is necessary to note fact of psychology of the small groups closed in one premise widely known on the Antarctic expeditions - namely, the increase of animosities fraught with destructive actions, reducing survival rate. The bunker can be either unique, or one of many. In the first case it is vulnerable to different catastrophes, and in the second is possible struggle between different bunkers for the resources which have remained outside. Or is possible war continuation if catastrophe has resulted from war. The bunker, most likely, will be either underground, or in the sea, or in space. But the space bunker too can be underground of asteroids or the Moon. For the space bunker it will be more difficult to use the rests of resources on the Earth. The bunker can be completely isolated, or to allow “excursion” in the external hostile environment. As model of the sea bunker can serve the nuclear submarine possessing high reserve, autonomy, manoeuvrability and stability to negative influences. Besides, it can easily be cooled at ocean (the problem of cooling of the underground closed bunkers is not simple), to extract from it water, oxygen and even food. Besides, already there are ready boats and technical decisions. The boat is capable to sustain shock and radiating influence. However the resource of independent swimming of modern submarines makes at the best 1 year, and in them there is no place for storage of stocks. Modern space station ISS could support independently life of several humans within approximately year though there are problems of independent landing and adaptation. Not clearly, whether the certain dangerous agent, capable to get into all cracks on the Earth could dissipate for so short term. There is a difference between gaso - and bio - refuges which can be on a surface, but are divided into many sections for maintenance of a mode of quarantine, and refuges which are intended as a shelter from in the slightest degree intelligent opponent (including other people who did not manage to get a place in a refuge). In case of biodanger island with rigid quarantine can be a refuge if illness is not transferred by air.

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A bunker can possess different vulnerabilities. For example, in case of biological threat, is enough insignificant penetration to destroy it. Only hi-tech bunker can be the completely independent. Energy and oxygen are necessary to the bunker. The system on a nuclear reactor can give energy, but modern machines hardly can possess durability more than 30-50 years. The bunker cannot be universal - it should assume protection against the certain kinds of threats known in advance - radiating, biological etc. The more reinforced is a bunker, the smaller number of bunkers can prepare mankind in advance, and it will be more difficult to hide such bunker. If after a certain catastrophe there was a limited number of the bunkers which site is known, the secondary nuclear war can terminate mankind through countable number of strikes in known places. The larger is the bunker, the less amount of such bunkers is possible to construct. However any bunker is vulnerable to accidental destruction or contamination. Therefore the limited number of bunkers with certain probability of contamination unequivocally defines the maximum survival time of mankind. If bunkers are connected among themselves by trade and other material distribution, contamination between them is more probable. If bunkers are not connected, they will degrade faster. The more powerfully and more expensively is the bunker, the more difficult is to create it imperceptibly for the probable opponent and so it easier becomes the goal for an attack. The more cheaply the bunker, the less it is durable. Casual shelters - the people who have escaped in the underground, mines, submarines - are possible. They will suffer from absence of the central power and struggle for resources. The people, in case of exhaustion of resources in one bunker, can undertake the armed attempts to break in other next bunker. Also the people who have escaped casually (or under the threat of the coming catastrophe), can attack those who was locked in the bunker. Bunkers will suffer from necessity of an exchange of heat, energy, water and air with an external world. The more independent is the bunker, the less time it can exist in full isolation. Bunkers being in the Earth will deeply suffer from an overheating.

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Any nuclear reactors and other complex machines will demand external cooling. Cooling by external water will unmask them, and it is impossible to have energy sources lost-free in the form of heat, while on depth of earth there are always high temperatures. Temperature growth, in process of deepening in the Earth, limits depth of possible bunkers. (The geothermal gradient on the average makes 30 degrees C/kilometers. It means that bunkers on depth more than 1 kilometre are impossible - or demand huge cooling installations on a surface, as gold mines in the republic of South Africa. There can be deeper bunkers in ices of Antarctica.) The more durable, more universal and more effective, should be a bunker, the earlier it is necessary to start to build it. But in this case it is difficult to foresee the future risks. For example, in 1930th years in Russia was constructed many anti-gase bombproof shelters which have appeared useless and vulnerable to bombardments by heavy demolition bombs. Efficiency of the bunker which can create the civilisation, corresponds to a technological level of development of this civilisation. But it means that it possesses and corresponding means of destruction. So, especially powerful bunker is necessary. The more independently and more absolutely is the bunker (for example, equipped with AI, nanorobots and biotechnologies), the easier it can do without, eventually, people, having given rise to purely computer civilisation. People from different bunkers will compete for that who first leaves on a surface and who, accordingly, will own it - therefore will develop the temptation for them to go out to still infected sites of the Earth. There are possible automatic robotic bunkers: in them the frozen human embryos are stored in a certain artificial uterus and through hundreds or thousand years start to be grown up. (Technology of cryonics of embryos already exists, and works on an artificial uterus are forbidden for bioethics reasons, but basically such device is possible.) With embryos it is possible to send such installations in travel to other planets. However, if such bunkers are possible, the Earth hardly remains empty - most likely it will be populated with robots. Besides, if the human cub who has been brought up by wolves, considers itself as a wolf as whom human

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who has been brought up by robots will consider itself? So, the idea about a survival in bunkers contains many reefs which reduce its utility and probability of success. It is necessary to build longterm bunkers for many years, but they can become outdated for this time as the situation will change and it is not known to what to prepare. Probably, that there is a number of powerful bunkers which have been constructed in days of cold war. A limit of modern technical possibilities the bunker of an order of a 30-yearold autonomy, however it would take long time for building decade, and it will demand billions dollars of investments. Independently there are information bunkers, which are intended to inform to the possible escaped descendants about our knowledge, technologies and achievements. For example, in Norway, on Spitsbergen have been created a stock of samples of seeds and grain with these purposes (Doomsday Vault). Variants with preservation of a genetic variety of people by means of the frozen sperm are possible. Digital carriers steady against long storage, for example, compact discs on which the text which can be read through a magnifier is etched are discussed and implemented by Long Now Foundation. This knowledge can be crucial for not repeating our errors. A possible location for shelters are asteroids and comets body in the Koiper belt, of which there are trillions of pieces, and within which is possible to hide. QUICK SPREADING IN SPACE There is an assumption that the mankind will escape, if is divided into parts which separately quickly will occupy space. For example, known physicist S. Hawking agitates for creation of the spare Earth to avoid the risks menacing to a planet. In case of quick spreading any influence which has been carried out in one place, cannot catch up with all mankind. Alas, there are no technological preconditions for the accelerated moving of mankind in space: we have rather vague representations how to create starprobe vehicles and, possibly, we cannot construct them without the aid of AI and robotic manufacture. So, the mankind can start to occupy space only after will overcome all risks connected with AI and nanotechnologies and consequently space settlements

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cannot serve as protection against these risks. Besides, space settlements in the nearest space, within Solar system, will be extremely dependent on terrestrial deliveries and are vulnerable for usual rocket attack. Even if the mankind will start to escape from the Earth with near light speed on superfast starprobe vehicles, it all the same will not secure it. First, because the information all the same extends faster, with a velocity of light and if there will be hostile AI it can get on computer networks even into quickly leaving starprobe vehicle. Secondly, no matter how the starprobe vehicle is fast, the pilotless device can catch up it because it would be easier, faster and more perfect (as it will be created later). At last, any starprobe vehicle takes away with itself all terrestrial supertechnologies both all human lacks and the problems connected with them. It is possible to use METI – i.e. sending signals to stars - to ensure some kind of human immortality, maybe via our own SETI attack (But it needs powerful AI). Or simply sending people DNA information and our knowledge in the hope that someone will find and raise us. Finally, you can start a wave of sóäà êóäøñôåøòïa von Neumann probes - that is, robots, which are distributed in the universe as plants - using the seeds. They could absorb in the beginning Oort cloud comets. However, in these robots is firmly encoded human genom so that such robots tried to recreate the man and his culture at any available celestial bodies. It is believed that random mutations in the works and nanotechnological systems virtually impossible, meaning that such von Neumann probes can indefinitely retain the original setting. On the other hand, such robots will be more demanding resources than robots without additional program to rebuild people, and will lose them in the competition for the development of the universe. It is unlikely to be running only the one wave of von Neumann probes - and likely to be few (if mankind did not come united before). See more about the von Neumann later probes in the chapter on the Fermi paradox. At the same time stem the tide of their distribution center is virtually impossible - because these probes are very small and do not support radio communications with Earth. The only option is to run much faster wave of more efficient replicator, which

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swallow up all the solid bodies, suitable for reproduction replicator in the previous phase. This can be considered as an option for panspermia. Another variant is simply to dissipate in space is very stable living cells and microorganisms spores, so that life has evolved to somewhere again, if Earth would be at risk. ALL SOMEHOW WILL MANAGE ITSELF This position on prevention of global risks is based on belief in congenital stability of systems and on the irrational concept of the decision of problems in process of their receipt. It comprises some obvious and implicit assumptions and logic errors, in the spirit of perhaps, it will not happened. Actually, it is position of the governments of different countries which solve problems only also adhere after they became obvious. If to formulate this position in the spirit of the military doctrine of the USA, it will sound so: analyzing and preventing all risks in process of their receipt, we will create the monitoring system of each concrete risk giving qualitative and quantitative prevalence over each source of risk on each phase of its existence. However already today in a modern technological situation we cannot consider risks in process of their receipt, as we do not know where to search and as risks can appear faster, than we will have time to consider and prepare them for them. For this reason we try to expand forecast horizon, considering hypothetical and probable technologies which are not created yet, but can be quite created, proceeding from current tendencies. Other variant - the picture of the future, named “sustainable development” However it not the forecast, but the project. It is based on the assumption, that technologies will enough develop to help us to overcome energy and other crises, but nevertheless thus technologies will not generate new improbable and risky possibilities. The probability of such outcome of events is insignificant. DEGRADATION OF THE CIVILISATION TO LEVEL OF A STEADY CONDITION Some people hope that threats of global catastrophes will resolve by itself when the mankind, because of shortage of resources

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or the previous catastrophes degrades in some extent. Such degradation is interfaced to difficulties because while all stocks which have remained from a civilisation are not plundered yet, and all weapon is not spent, so there is no benefit to be engaged in primitive agriculture - much easier to plunder neighbours. The competition between the escaped societies will inevitably result in new growth of the weapon and technologies, as though it ideologically choked, and through some hundreds years the civilisation will return on modern level so, will revive also all problems. Or on the contrary, degrades in a direction to even more primitive forms and will die out. PREVENTION OF ONE CATASTROPHE BY MEANS OF ANOTHER Following examples of mutual neutralisation of dangerous technologies and catastrophes are theoretically possible: 1. Nuclear war stops development of technologies in general. 2. Totalitarian AI prevents bioterrorism. 3. The bioterrorism does impossible AI development 4. The nuclear winter prevents global warming. Essence in that large catastrophe does impossible global catastrophe, rejecting mankind on some evolutionary steps back. It is possible in the event that we enter into the long period of high probability of large catastrophes, but small probability of global catastrophes. From the second half of XX-th century we are in this period. Nevertheless, it has not prevented us to successfully come near to the moment when before the creation of many means of global general destruction remained, probably, tens years. In any sense it would be “pleasant” to prove the theorem, that global catastrophe is impossible, because very large catastrophes will not allow us to come near to it. However this theorem would have exclusively likelihood character as some dangerous supertechnologies can appear at any moment, especially AI. Besides, any big failure (but smaller then rejecting back catastrophe) raises sensibleness of people concerning risks. Though here there is a certain stereotype: expectation of repetition of precisely same risk.

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ADVANCE EVOLUTION OF THE MAN One more idea which gives some hope of the survival is the idea that processes of cyber-transformation of human will go faster, than processes of creation of dangerous arms. For example, if to replace the majority of cells of a human body with their mechanical analogues human becomes impregnable to action of the biological weapon. Consciousness loading in the computer will make human in general independent of destiny of the body as probably reserve copying of the information, and these computers can be in size with a mote and can hide in a belt of asteroids. In this case only full physical destruction of Solar system and its vicinities will result in destruction of such “superpeople”. However in what measure such devices will be human, instead of artificial intellect versions, is difficult to tell. Besides, this scenario though is possible theoretically, but is not so probable, so we can’t relay on it. At last, it can simply not be in time as creation of weapons is much easier, than transformation human into cyborg. Other moment consists that cyborgization opens the new risks connected with harm for artificial parts of a human body by computer viruses. The first such event became recently carried out (in the demonstration purposes by experts on safety) attack on cardio stimulator with management on a radio channel in which course it has been reprogrammed on other operating mode, that potentially could lead to death of the patient if experiment was carried out on the live human. Future cyber human will have thousand distantly operated medical devices. P OSSIBLE R OLE OF THE I NTERNATIONAL O RGANIZATIONS IN PREVENTION OF GLOBAL CATASTROPHE We do not know definitely who exactly should be engaged in prevention of global catastrophes. Worse that, many organisations and the private humans are ready to be engaged in it - who against to become the saviour of the world? (However still couple of years back in the world there was no human who would work over a theme of prevention of global catastrophe as an interdisciplinary problem and would receive for it the salary.) We will list different functional genres organisations which could be responsible for prevention of risks of global catastrophe.

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Biological Disaster Management 1) “United Nations”. Heads of the world governments together solve how to cope with risks. So now struggle with global warming. But everyone cannot agree. As a result are accepted the weakest and the conciliatory proposal. The states are not ready to transfer the power in the United Nations. 2) World government. The problem consists in the possibility of its formation. Process creation of the world government is fraught with war that to itself creates global risk. Besides, such government cannot be neutral. From the point of view of one groups it will be the spokesman of interests of other groups. It will be either weak, or totalitarian. The totalitarian government will generate Resistance, struggle against this Resistance is fraught with huge acts of terrorism and creates new global risks. 3) Intelligence service which secretly resist to global risks. So is struggle with terrorists. Problems: privacy conducts to information loss. There is a competition of Intelligence services. The mess of national and universal interests is possible - as Intelligence services serve the state, instead of people in general. Intelligence services owing to the specificity are not ground on scale long-term vision of complex problems and cannot independently estimate, not involving foreign experts, risks of technologies which not existing yet. 4) Secret groups of private humans. Probably, that a certain secret private organisation will set as its purpose to do much good for all mankind. However the intermediate stage would be creation of the (probably, secret) world government. Problems: a competition of rescuers (as can be several such secret organisations, and methods and pictures of the world at all at them are different), necessity of transition to point the world government. Aversion of plots in a society and counteraction by it from Intelligence services. Mixture personal and overall aims. Even Ben Laden thinks, that exactly world caliphate will be the rescue of mankind from the mechanistic and selfish West. Private groups for creation of strong AI also can understand

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that they will receive in the hands the absolute weapon, and to have plans on its application for capture of the power over the world. In any case, the secret society very often means presence of a planned stage of “mutiny” - an obvious or implicit establishment of the power and influence for the whole world, by penetration or direct capture. And, certainly, here it faces a competition of other such societies, and also counteraction of a society and special services. 5) Open discussion and self-organising in a society. Some authors, for example, D. Brin, consider, that alternative to the secret organisations and the governmental projects in prevention of global risks would be self-organising of responsible citizens which would lead to creation of that in English is called Reciprocal accountability - the mutual accountability when actions of supervising services are accessible to the control of those whom they supervise. Problems of such approach are obvious: the society power is not great, and there is no uniform world society, capable to agree - and if these measures will be not accepted just in one country by them are not effective. Also there should be a certain body which these discussions will influence. Besides, as even the small group of people is capable to create secret existential risk than simple trackings neighbours is insufficient. At the moment already the network of the open public organisations studying problems of global risks has formed and financing researches on their prevention. It include Lifeboat foundation, the Center of Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN), the Alliance for Civilisation Rescue, Singularity institute (SIAI), Future of Humanity Institute in Oxford. The majority of these organisations are based in the USA, their budget is less than one million dollars for each, that it is not enough, and they are financed on private donations. Accordingly, result of their activity to the present opiniononly the publication of articles and discussion of variants. Besides, Singularity institute directly is engaged in working out of friendly AI. These organisations communicate,

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Biological Disaster Management exchange resources and employees. On the other hand, practical influence of different welfare funds on a society is not enough. Much more means and attention receive funds which deal with less considerable problems, than mankind rescue. In Russia welfare funds are compromised by suspicions in communications either with a mafia, or with CIA. The best example of influence of a society on governors is reading by governors books though it not always helped. President Kennedy has avoided war during the Caribbean crisis, appreciably because he read Barbara Takman’s book “August 1914” about the beginning of World War we where it is shown how war has begun contrary to will and interests of the parties took K. Sagan and N. Moiseev’s researches about nuclear winter have pushed, probably, the USSR and the USA to disarmament. The future presidents in any case are formed in a certain cultural environment and bear upward the ideas which are got there. Change of an average level of understanding, creation of an information background can quite lead to that governors will indirectly absorb certain ideas. After all there was not from air now a program on nanotechnology in Russia. Someone somewhere has read about them and has thought. 6) Not to stir to system to self-arrange. Probably, that struggle between different saviours of the world will appear worse, than full inactivity. However such strategy to realise it is impossible, as it demands an unanimous consent - that never happens. Always there will be some saviours of the world, and they should find out who among them is the main.

The question at all in that there was an organisation which can and wishes to prevent global risks, and in that the world countries entirely delegated to it such powers that seems to much less probable. Positive and very indicative example is that the mankind has shown ability to unite in the face of obvious and clear danger in different sorts antifascist and antiterrorist coalitions and effectively enough to operate, while the purpose was powerful, the general and clear.

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INFINITY OF THE UNIVERSE AND QUESTION OF IRREVERSIBILITY OF HUMAN EXTINCTION The assumption of infinity of the Universe is quite materialistic. If it so it is possible to expect, that in it arise all possible worlds. Including, it infinitely many worlds inhabited by a intelligent life, and it means that intelligence in the universe will not disappear along with the man. Moreover, from this follows, what even in case of human extinction, sometime and somewhere there will be a world which almost is not differing from the Earth, and in it there will be beings with the same genetic code, as Homo sapiens. From this follows, that people in general never can disappear from the Universe as cannot to disappear, for example, from it, number 137 (as, roughly speaking, genetic code of human is possible to present in the form of one very long number). Among the physical theories assuming plurality of the worlds, it is necessary to allocate concept of Multiverse of Everett (which essence consists in acceptance of that interpretation of quantum mechanics which world division at each possibility of a choice and consequently means, infinite branching of variants of the future), and also a number of other theories. Stronger consequence from these theories is the assumption that all possible variants of the future will realise. In this case definitive global catastrophe becomes impossible event as always there will be a world in which it has not occurred. For the first time it was noted by Everett, who come to conclusion, that Nultiverse (that is an actual reality of all possible quantum alternatives) means personal immortality for human as, from reason whatever it was lost, always will be a Universe variant in which it was not lost during this moment. The known physicist M.Tegmark has illustrated this idea with mental experiment about quantum suicide. Then this idea was developed J. Higgo in the article Does the ‘many-worlds’ interpretation of quantum mechanics imply immortality?. In my comments to translation of the Higgo’s article we write that the validity of the theory about Multiverse is not a necessary condition for the validity of the theory about the immortality connected with plurality of the worlds. It is enough only infinity of the Universe for the validity of many worlds immortality. That is this theory about many

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worlds immortality works and for not quantum finite state machine: for any final beings in the infinite Universe there will be precisely same being with precisely same course of life except that will not die at the last minute. But it at all does not mean fine and pleasant immortality as heavy wound can be alternative of death. Precisely same reasoning can be applied and to all civilisation. Always there will be a future variant in which the human civilisation does not die out and if all possible variants of the future exist it means immortality of our civilisation. However it does not mean that to us prosperity is guaranteed. In other words, if to prove non distructability of the observer from this follows that there should be the certain civilisation supporting it, however for this purpose enough one bunker with all necessary, instead of prospering mankind.

ASSUMPTIONS OF THAT WE LIVE IN “MATRIX” Bases of the scientific analysis of this problem are put in pawn N. Bostrom in its article Simulation argument: Are we live in Matrix?. Many religious concepts can be made pseudoscientific, having entered the assumption that we live in the feigned world, probably, created in the supercomputer forces of a certain supercivilization. It is impossible to deny that we live in a matrix, but it would be possible to prove it, if in our world there were the certain improbable miracles incompatible with any physical laws (for example, in the sky there would be an inscription from supernova stars). However there is a concept that there can be a global catastrophe if owners of this simulation suddenly switch off it (Bostrom). It is possible to show, that the arguments described in article of J. Higgo about many world immortality in this case come into effect. Namely, that we live in a matrix, is probable only in the event that the set of possible simulations is very great. It does probable existence of a significant amount of absolutely identical simulations. Destruction of one of copies does not influence in any way a course of the simulation the same as burning of one of copies of the novel “War and peace” does not influence the relation of characters. (Thus any arguments about a shower, continuity of

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consciousness and other not copied factors do not work, as usually it is supposed, that “consciousness” in simulation in general is impossible.) Hence, full desintegration of simulation does not represent any threat. However if all of us live in simulation, owners of the simulation can throw to us a certain improbable natural problem, at least to count our behaviour in the conditions of crisis. For example, to study, how civilisations behave in case of eruption of supervolcanoes. (And any supercivilization will be interested in calculating different variants of its own previous development, for example, to estimate frequency of prevalence of civilisations in the Universe.) Thus it is possible to assume, that extreme central events will be more often to become objects of modelling, especially the moments when development could stop completely, such as global risks. (And we just live around such event, that, Bayesian logic, raises probability of a hypothesis that we live in simulation.) In other words, in simulations there will be much more often situations of global risk. (It is exact like at cinema show explosions is much more often, than we see them in a reality.) So, it increases our chances to face a situation close to global catastrophe. Thus, as global catastrophe in the world of simulations is impossible, for always there will be simulations where protagonists do not die, so the survival of a handful of people after very big catastrophe will be the most probable scenario. To the question on simulation argument by Bostrom we still will return further. Sometimes hopes are expressed, that if the mankind will come nearer to a self-destruction side kind aliens who watch for a long time us, will rescue us. But on it there are no more hopes, than for lamb which are devoured with lions that it will be rescued by the people making about it a documentary film. GLOBAL CATASTROPHES AND SOCIETY ORGANISATION If global catastrophe occurs, it will destroy any society. Therefore the society organisation matters only on a phase of prevention of risks. It is possible to try to imagine, though this image will be rather utopian, what society is better capable to prevent global catastrophes:

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Biological Disaster Management 1. This society which has one and only one control centre possessing completeness of the power and high authority. However thus there should be the certain feedback which is not allowing it to turn to self-sufficient and selfish dictatorship. This society should possess such self-control that in it could not arise, and in case of appearance, any at once would be found out dangerous (from the point of view of risks of global catastrophes) behaviour or the phenomenon. (The rallied command of the ship could be an example of such society.) 2. This society which is aimed at the survival in long historical prospect (tens and hundreds years). 3. The overwhelming majority of people should realise and accept the purposes and the device of this society, that is to have high moral level. (With the account of what even the small group of terrorists can cause in the future an irreparable damage, support level should be close to 100 %, that, of course, in practice is not realised.) 4. It is society, lead by people (or AI systems), intellectually enough prepared correctly to consider risks which can arise in years and decades. Accordingly, in this society people get the complete education giving fundamental and wide, but not superficial vision of the world. 5. It is society in which the number of the conflicts which participants can want to use the Doomsday weapon is brought to naught. 6. It is society, able to carry out the full rigid control of activity of all groups of humans which can create global risks. However this control should not to turn to the tool of creation of risk, somehow, itself. 7. This society should be ready quickly and effectively take sufficient measures for prevention of any global risk. 8. This society should put considerable resources in creation of a different sort of bunkers, space settlements etc. Actually, this society should consider the survival as the main task. 9. This society should create new technologies in the correct order chosen by it in specially taken away places. It should

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be ready to refuse even from very interesting technologies if is incapable to supervise precisely or at least to measure their risk. 10. This society should arise without world war because the risk in the course of its appearance would move advantage of such society. Thus we do not discuss model of a similar society in terms “democratic”, “market”, “communistic”, “totalitarian” etc. - we believe that these terms are applicable to a XX century society, but not to the XXI centuries. But it seems obvious, that the modern society costs extremely far from all these parametres of a capable society to a survival: 1. On the Earth there is no uniform conventional authoritative centre of the power, but is a lot of wishing for it to be overcome. The feedback in the form of elections and a freedom of speech too ephemeral to really influence decisions, especially, on a global scale. Global world institutes, like the United Nations, are in crisis. 2. The majority of people operates in personal interests or interests of the groups even if it is expressed in words of universal interests. There are a lot of people, also there is a percent of those who not against or even aspires to total destruction. Also in a society competing ideas-meme, which alternatively exclude each other extend: a different sorts of nationalism, Islamism, antiglobalism, cynicism. (Under cynicism we mean widespread enough sum of belief: “all is bad, money rule the world, all we do is only for myself, miracles do not happen, the future has no value, people are stupid crowd etc.) 3. The modern society in much bigger degree is adjusted on reception of the blessings in short-term prospect, than on a survival in the long-term. 4. Proceeding from actions of many heads of the modern states, it is difficult to believe, that they are people who are aimed at a long-term survival of all world. And it in many respects occurs that there is no clear and standard picture of risks. More precisely – that is, is not full and eclipses more important risks (namely, it is a picture where

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5.

6.

7.

8. 9.

10.

11.

asteroids plus global warming are the essence the main risks - however even after a recognition of these risks concern about them is insufficiently). Though there are considerable number of people which can and wish to give clear understanding about risks, but the level of information noise is so that it is impossible to hear them. In a modern society there are many dangerous conflicts in connection with a considerable quantity of the countries, parties and religious-extremist groups. It is difficult even to count all of them. Even very high control in one country is senseless, while there are territories inaccessible to the control in the others. While there are the sovereign states, the full general control is impossible. However when the control appears, it then starts to be used not only for struggle against global risks, but also for personal purposes of those groups which carry out the control - or, anyway, such impression is created (war in Iraq). While the society is divided into the separate armed states, fast acceptance of measures on localization of a threat is impossible (coordination) or is fraught with start of nuclear war. Upon termination of an epoch of “cold” war building of bunkers has rather decayed. The modern society does not realise a survival as the overall objective, and those who about it speak, look like nuts. Modern technologies develop spontaneously. There is no clear representation about the one who, where what and what for technologies develops - even rather easily dicoverable nuclear manufactures. Though process of states association actively goes in Europe, other part of the world is not ready yet to unite peacefully (if it in general is possible). The authority of many international organisations, on the contrary, decreases. (However if somewhere happens large, but not final catastrophe, is probable short-time association in the spirit of an antiterrorist coalition.)

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It is important to underline also, that the classical totalitarian society is not panacea from global catastrophes. Really, totalitarian society can quickly mobilise resources and go on considerable losses for purpose achievement. However the basic problem of such society is an information opacity which reduces degree of readiness and clearness of understanding of occurring events. Examples: Stalin’s error in an estimation of probability of the beginning of war with Germany. Or blindness old-Chinese societies concerning military prospects of gunpowder and information technologies - a compass and a paper which there have been invented. GLOBAL CATASTROPHES AND CURRENT SITUATION IN THE WORLD On the one hand, it seems that political life in the modern world gradually concentrates around prevention of the remote global catastrophes as which possible sources three are considered first of all: expansion ABM, global warming and the Iran nuclear program (and in a smaller measure a number of others, for example, antiasteroid protection, power safety, etc. In addition, the behavior of heads of states during the financial crisis in autumn 2008 can also serve as a model of Earth’s civilization respond to future global catastrophe. In the beginning there was blind denial and embellishment of facts. During the week the situation changed, and those who said, that there cannot be a crisis, began to shout about the inevitability of a terrible catastrophe if they do not urgently allocate 700 billion dollars - a Paulson plan. In doing so, have conducted intensive international meetings, Sarkozy has put forward incredible initiative, and all showed agreement that we need to do something, though not very clearly what. In doing so, it appears that a complete model of events was not available to decision makers.) we believe, that the reader who has attentively familiarised with the text of this book, understands, that though these two problems are considerable and, finally, can increase chances of human extinction, actually our world is farthest from comprehension of scales and even kinds of the coming threats. Despite all conversations, global catastrophe is not perceived as something real, unlike 1960th years when the risk

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of catastrophe directly meant necessity of preparation of a bombproof shelter. It is possible to assimilate a modern condition of complacency only to that pleasant relaxation which as speak, reigned in Pearl Harbour before touch of Japanese. Besides, as global risks falling of asteroids, exhaustion of resources and risk of total nuclear war is realised, but these themes for some reason are not objects of active political debate. It is possible to discuss two themes: why this list of catastrophes is chosen (Iran, ABM and warming) and how the society addresses with that the list of risks which is recognised. However the answer to both questions is one: the basic maintenance of discussions about threats of a modern civilisation consists of discussion in the spirit of is it really real? Does or not Iran make a bomb, and whether is it dangerous? Whether people are guilty in global warming and whether it is necessary to struggle with it? Actually, process of drawing up of this list is also political process in which such factors as a competition of the most convincing and most favourable hypotheses participate.

THE WORLD AFTER GLOBAL CATASTROPHE No matter how laser would be a global catastrophe, clearly, is that all Universe will not be lost in it (if only it not disintegration of metastable vacuum, but even in this case there are parallel Universes). Some kind of intelligent life will arise on other planet, and the more will be such places, the it is more than chances, that this life will be similar to ours. In this sense final global catastrophe is impossible. However if global catastrophe comprehends the Earth then some variants are possible. According to synergetrics positions, the critical point means, that there is a little, a final number, scenarios between which there will be an irreversible choice of a direction of movement. As though there are many possible scenarios of global catastrophe, a quantity of final conditions is much less. In our case it is a question of following variants: 1. Full destruction of the Earth and a life on it. The further evolution is impossible, though, maybe, some bacteria have survived.

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2. People have died out, however the biosphere as a whole has remained, and evolution of other species of animals proceeds. As a variant - separate mutated people or monkeys gradually create new intelligent specie. 3. Grey goo. Certain primitive necrosphera (S. Lema’s term from the novel “Invincible”) from nanorobots has survived. In it there can be an evolution. A variant - self-reproduced factories on manufacture of large robots have escaped, but they do not possess real AI. 4. Postapocaliptic world. The technological civilisation has failed, but the certain number of people has escaped. They are engaged in collecting and agriculture, and factors of anthropogenous threats to existence have disappeared. (However process of global warming can proceed for the account started before processes and to become irreversible.) From this scenario there are transition possibilities to other scenarios - to a new technological civilisation or to definitive extinction. 5. The super-power artificial intellect has established the power over the world. People have died out or are superseded on a history roadside. Thus - attention! - from the point of view of people it can look as the world of general abundance: everyone will receive an unlimited life and the virtual world in addition. However expenses of system on entertainment of people will be minimum, no less than a role of people in management of system. This process - autonomisms of the state from human and decrease in a role of people in it – already goes. Even if the superintelligence will arise thanks to improvement of separate people or their merge, it will not be human any more - anyway, from the point of view of usual people. Its new complexity will move its human roots. 6. The positive outcome - see more in detail the following chapter. People have created such super-power AI which operates the world, as much as possible realising potential of people and human values. This scenario has thin, but an essential difference with that scenario which leaves to people only sphere of virtual entertainments and pleasures.

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Almost each of these variants is steady attractor or a channel of succession of events, that is after passage of a critical point it starts to draw to itself different scenarios. The world without global catastrophe: the best realistic variant of prevention of global catastrophes The genre demands happy end. If global catastrophe would be absolutly inevitable, there is no reason to write this book as the only thing that would remain to people in the face of inevitable catastrophe is to arrange a feast before a plague - make party and drink. But even if chances of catastrophe are very great, we can delay considerably its approach, reducing it annual probability. I (and a number of other researchers) see these chances in such advancing development of systems of an artificial intellect which overtakes development of other risks, but simultaneously this development should is advanced by growth of our understanding of possibilities and risks of AI, and our understanding of, how it is correct and safe to set a problem that is how to create “Friendly” AI. And then on the basis of this Friendly AI to create uniform system of world contracts between all countries in which this AI will carry out functions of the Automated system of the government. This plan assumes smooth and peace transition to really majestic and safe future. And though we do not think that exactly this plan will be easily and faultlessly realised, or that it is really probable, we believe, it represents the best to what we can aspire and that we can reach. It is possible to state an essence in the following theses, first two of which are necessary, and last is extremely desirable: 1) Our knowledge and possibilities on prevention of risks will grow much faster then possible risks. 2) And this knowledge and possibilities of management will not generate new risks. 3) This system arises peacefully and without serious consequences for all people.

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MAXIMIZING PLEASURE IF CATASTROPHE IS INEVITABLE We strive to preserve human life and humanity because it has value. While we may not be accurate knowledge of what creates value of human life, as it is not an objective knowledge, and our agreement, we can assume that we value the number of people, as well as test their pleasure and the possibility of creative selfrealization. In other words, diversity posed by the information. That is a world in which man lives 1000, while suffering the same way altogether (concentration camp), worse than the world where in joy lives 10 000 people engaged in a variety of crafts (Greek policy). Thus, if we have two options for future development, in which the same probability of extinction, we should prefer the option which is more people, less suffering, and their lives more varied, that is best realize human potential. Indeed, we probably would prefer a world where one billion people live within 100 years (and then the world is destroyed), to a world in which lives only a million people in over 200 years. Extreme expression of this is Feast during the Plague. That is, if death is inevitable, and nothing is impossible to postpone it, the best behavior for rational actor (ie. who disbelief in the afterlife) is to begin entertain in the most interesting way. A large number of people aware of the inevitability of physical death, and doing it. However, if death is away for several decades, there is no point in spend all saving on drinking now, but mazimum functions of pleasure requires constant earnings etc. Interesting to wonder what would be a rational strategy for the whole civilization, which would have been aware of the inevitability of death through a period of time. Should it increase the population to give live to more people? Or rather, to distribute to all drugs and implant electrodes in the center of pleasure? Or hide the fact of the inevitability of disaster, as this knowledge will inevitably lead to suffering and premature destruction of infrastructure? Or can be mixed, with no way to zero, but not absolute probability of extinction, where the bulk of resources devoted to feast during the plague, and some - to find out? But the real pleasure is impossible without hope of salvation. Therefore, such a civilization would continue to seek a rational way, even if it surely knew that it doesn’t exist.

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INDIRECT WAYS OF AN ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITY OF GLOBAL CATASTROPHE Indirect ways of an estimation are used not data about the object of research, but different indirect sources of the information, like analogies, the general laws and the top limits. It is a question it is in detail considered by Bostrom in article of “Existential risks”. There are some independent ways of such estimation. PARETO’S LAW Pareto’s Law is in detail considered by G.G. Malinetskim with reference to various catastrophes in the book Risk. Sustainable development. Synergetrics. Its essence consists that frequency (is more exact, a rank in the list) a certain catastrophe is connected with its scale by very simple law: N ( xi

≥ x) ≈ xα

Where a - the important parameter. a = - 0.7 for the case of victims of natural disasters. Pareto’s Law has empirical character, and looks as a straight line on the logarithmic chart with the inclination corner, proportional to a. A typical example of Pareto’s law is the statement like: on 1 point of magnitude growth Earthquake occurs in 10 times less often. (But one point of magnitude is equal to an energy gain in 32 times, and it is called the law of repeatability of Gutenberg-Richter. For big energies the parametre moves, and 1 point of a gain around 7-9 points gives frequency reduction in 20 times that is if Earthquakes in magnitude of 7-7,9 points occur 18 times a year, 8-poins - once a year, and 9-ball – once in 20 years.) Feature of this law is its universality for different classes of the phenomena though value of parametre can differ. However in case of number of victims of natural disasters value of parametre in an exponent is not -1, but – 0.7, that considerably makes heavier a distribution tail. For us in this distribution is interesting, how often in time there could be catastrophes in which the expected number of victims would surpass the present population of the Earth, that is would be an order of 10 billion humans. If we pass law Ïàðåòî with a = - 1, that is ten times stronger event occurs ten times less often, catastrophe (that is reliably eliminating the Earth population) will occur to 10 billion victims about one time for 500 000 years.

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This number has an order of time of existence of specie Homo Sapiens. By other way, if to take a = - 0,7 (that means, that ten times stronger event occurs only in 5 times less often, and also in the assumption, that natural catastrophes with number of victims more than 100 000 humans occur time in 10 years) before catastrophe of scale of all mankind there will be only approximately 30 000 years. It is close in the order of size to that time which has passed from the moment of eruption of volcano Toba - 74000 years agowhen the mankind has appeared on the verge of extinction. We see, that weight of a tail of distribution strongly depends on size of parametre a. However acts of nature do not create a great risk in the XXI century at any reasonable values of a. However we will receive much worst result, if we will apply this law to wars and acts of terrorism. Thus Pareto’s Law does not consider exponential character of techological development. In real cases for each class of events we have the top border of applicability of Pareto’s Law, for example, it is supposed, that there are no earthquakes with magnitude more than 9,5. However set of different classes of events not îãðàíè÷åííî. In detail law of sedate distribution of catastrophes and threat to extinction to mankind is considered in Robin Hansen article Catastrophe, a social collapse and human extinction. He notices, that the important factor is the disorder of survivability of separate people. If this disorder is great: then to destroy all people to the last, is necessary much, on some orders of magnitude, stronger catastrophe, than that which destroys only 99 % of people. HYPOTHESIS ABOUT THE BLACK QUEEN On the basis of paleontological data Van Vallen revealed that lines of extinction of species of animals submits to decreasing exponential law. Such form of lines of a survival actually means that the probability of extinction of an average specie remains approximately constant during his life. As time of a life of separate species in genus Homo makes an order of one million years we can expect the same life expectancy and for people, in assumption that we are a usual biological specie. Hence, the hypothesis about the Black queen does not mean essential risk in the XXI century.

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On the other hand, at the moment we live in 6th big extinction of live organisms this time caused by anthropogenous factors which are characterised by speed of extinction, in 1000 times surpassing natural. If to agree that human too are one of species, it reduces expected time of its existence from one million years to thousand. FERMI’S PARADOX One more not direct way to a probability estimation is based on Fermi’s paradox. Fermi’s paradox consists in a following question: If a life and intelligence is common appearances in the nature why we do not see their displays in space? Theoretically, the life and intelligence could arise somewhere on some billions years earlier, than on the Earth. For this time they could extend on hundred millions light years, at least with the help selfreplicating space probes (named von Neumann’s probes). This volume includes thousands, or maybe millions, galaxies. Mankind could start a wave self-replicating interstellar probes in the next 100 years. It can be microrobots which settle on planets, do there rockets and dispatch them on the Universe with speeds considerable below light-speed - such devices even are not obliged to possess a high-grade universal artificial intellect: the same do any actinia at terrestrial ocean, only in smaller scale. Such process can be started casually, simply at development of the nearest planets with the help of self-replicating robots. Such microrobots will consume first of all a firm matter of planets for the reproduction. For them laws of evolution and the natural selection, similar to that are available in fauna will operate. However we do not observe such microrobots in Solar system, at least because it has survived. Moreover, has survived not only the Earth, but also other solid bodies - companions of distant planets of solar system. We also do not observe any allien radio signals and any traces of astroengineering activity. From here four conclusions (though there were offered more: see the book of Stefan Webb 50 decisions of paradox of Fermi where 50 different variants which are considered as a whole they could be reduced to several more general categories)) are possible:

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1. The intelligent life arises in the Universe extremely seldom, less often, than in volume of sphere in radius in 100 million light years during 5 billion years. 2. We are already surrounded by a intelligent life invisible to us which has anyhow allowed us to develop or has simulated conditions of our life. (Possibility of here enters that we live in completely simulated world.) 3. The intelligent life perishes before has time to start at least primitive a intelligent shock wave from robots-replicators, that is perishes in the analogue of the XXI century. 4. The intelligent life rigidly refuses distribution for limits of a native planet. It can be quite intelligent for it as the remote space settlements cannot be supervised, so, from them threat to existence of a parent civilisation could come. (It is possible, that the intelligence has enough limits of the virtual world, or it finds a way out in the parallel world. However life experience on the Earth shows, that the exit on a land has not stopped expansion to the sea - the life extends in all directions.) As these four hypotheses, on Bayesian logic, have the equal rights before reception of the additional information, and so we can attribute each of them subjective reliability in 1/4. In other words, Fermi’s paradox with reliability in 25 % assumes, that we will die out in the XXI century. And though subjective probabilities are not yet objective probabilities which we would have, if we possess completeness of the information, ours space loneliness is a disturbing fact. (On the other hand if we appear are not lonely, it too will be the disturbing fact, in the light of risks which will be created by possible collision with an alien civilisation. However it will show to us, that, at least, some civilisations are capable to survive.) DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT. GOTT’S FORMULA. In another way for indirect estimation of probability of destruction of mankind is specific and disputable enough appendix of the theory of the probability, named Doomsday argument (DA). we meaningly lower huge volume of existing arguments and counterarguments concerning this theory and we state here only

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its conclusions. In the early 1980th DA was independently and in different forms opened by several researchers. Basic articles on this question have been published in leading natural-science magazine Nature in section of hypotheses. DA leans on so-called Copernicus postulate which says, that the usual observer is, most likely, in usual conditions - on a usual planet, at a usual star, in a usual Galaxy. This principle effectively predicts the most simple facts: he says, that hardly you were born at midnight on January, 1st, or that you hardly live on the North Pole. Though Kopernik’s principle seems axiomatic and almost tautological, it can be expressed in the mathematical form. Namely, it allows to state an estimation of probability of that the observer is in unusual conditions. In particular, it can state a likelihood estimation about how long a certain process, based from what the time it already proceeds, will proceed. (Under assumption it is find in the casual moment of time) - proceeding from the assumption that is improbable, that the observer has casually appeared in the beginning or at the very end of process. There are two basic forms of this mathematical prediction - a straight line named formula Gott in which the direct probability is calculated, and indirect, put forward by B. Carter and J. Leslie in which are calculated Bayesian amendments to aprioristic probability. Both these approaches have tried to apply at once to calculation of expected life expectancy of mankind. The volume of discussions on this question makes several dozens articles, and many seeming obvious refutations do not work. we recommend to the reader to address to articles of N. Bostrom where the part of arguments understands, and also to the book of J. Leslie mentioned already and to Cave’s article. The basic discussion is under construction round, whether it is possible to use in general data about last time of existence of object for a prediction of its future time of existence, and if yes, whether that can be used these data to predict the future number of people and time to “doomsday”. But in both cases it appears, that turning out estimations of future time of existence of mankind are unpleasant. Let’s consider at first Gott’s formula. For the first time it has been published in Nature in 1993. The essence of its underlying reasonings consists that if we observe a certain lasting event during the casual moment of time, most likely, we will get to the middle

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of the period of its existence, and hardly we will get to areas very close to the beginning or by the end. The conclusion of Gott’s formula can be looked in Cave’s article. We will result the formula.

(1 − f ) (1 + f ) T
Where T - age of system at the moment of its supervision, texpected time of its existence, and f - the set level of reliability. For example, if f=0.5 then with probability in 50 % the system will stop to exist during the period from 1/3 to 3 of its present age since the present moment. At f=0.95 the system will exist with probability of 95 % from 0.0256 to 39 present ages. Gott’s formula finds expression in human intuition when, for example, we believe, that if a certain house has staid year very much hardly it will fall in the nearest some seconds. This example shows that we can do likelihood statements about unique events, not knowing anything about real distribution of probabilities. The majority of attempts of a refutation of Gott’s formula is based that the counterexample in which it ostensibly does not work is resulted - however in these cases the principle of is broken that the subject is observed during the casual moment of time. For example, if to take babies or very old dogs (as Cave did) Gott’s formula will not predict expected duration of their life, however young men or old dogs not is people or the dogs taken during the casual moment of time.) Gott’s formula has been checked up experimentally, and yielded correct results for time of radioactive disintegration of atom of unknown type, and also for time of existence of Broadway shows. Concerning the future of a human civilisation Gott’s formula is applied not to time, but to a birth rank as the population varied non-uniformly, and it is more probable to appear during the period with high population density. (However if to apply it by time of existence of a specie anything improbable it will not turn out: with probability in 50 % the mankind will exist from 70 thousand to 600 thousand years.) It is supposed, that we, been born, have made the act of observation of our civilisation during the casual moment of time. Thus we have learnt, that all for mankind history was only approximately 100 billion people. It

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means, that we, most likely, have got to the middle to a piece that is, that very much hardly (from less than 0,1 % of probability) the total number of people will be 100 billion. And it means that chance of that the mankind will extend on all galaxy within many millenia, also is small. However from this also follows, that hardly that we live in last billion born people so, we have, most likely, some more hundreds years to a doomsday, considering the expected population of the Earth in 10 billion humans. For the XXI century the probability of destruction of a civilisation, proceeding from Gott’s formula applied at a rank of a birth, makes 15-30 %, depending on number of people which will live at this time. Strangely enough, this estimation will coincide with previous, on the basis of Fermi’s paradox. Certainly, this question requires the further researches. CARTER-LESLIE DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT Leslie argues a little in some other way, than Gott, applying Bayesian logic. Bayesian logic is based on Bayes formula which connects probability of a certain hypothesis with its aprioristic probability and probability of a new portion of the information that is the certificate which we have got in support of this hypothesis. (I recommend to address in this place to articles N. Bostrom about Doomsday Argument as we cannot state here all problematics in details.) Leslie writes: we will admit, there are two hypotheses about that, how many people will be all from Neanderthal men to “doomsday”: • 1st hypothesis: in total will be 200 billion people. (That is the doomsday will come the next millenium as all on the Earth already lived 100 billion people.) • 2nd hypothesis: in total will be 200 trillion people (that is people will occupy the Galaxy). Also we will admit, that the probability of each of outcomes is equal 50 % from the point of view from some abstract space observer. (Thus Leslie it is supposed, that we live in deterministic world, that is, this probability is firmly defined by properties of

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our civilisation though we may do not know it.) Now if to apply Bayes theorem and to modify this aprioristic probability with the account of that fact that we find out ourselves so early, that is among first 100 billion people, we will receive shift of this aprioristic probability in one thousand times (a difference between billions and billions). That is probability of that we have got to that civilisation to which can die rather early, there were 99,95 %. Let’s illustrate it with an example from a life. We will admit, in the next room is a man who with equal probability reads either the book, or article sits. In the book is 1000 pages, and in article is 10 pages. During the casual moment of time we ask this man, what is the number of page which he reads. If page number is more than 10, we can unequivocally conclude that he reads the book and if number of page is less than 10 here we have that case when it is possible to apply Bayes theorem. Number of page less than 10 can turn out in two cases: • The man reads the book, but he is reading now its beginning, probability of they be 1 % from all cases when he reads the book. • The man reads the article, here again this probability is equal to unit from all cases when he reads article. In other words, from 101 cases when page number can appear less than 10, in 100 cases it will be because human reads article. So, that probability of that he reads article, after reception of the additional information by us about page number became 99 %. Property of the resulted reasonings consists that they sharply increase even very small probability of extinction in the XXI century. For example, if it is equal 1 % from the point of view there from some external observer for us, times we have found out ourselves in the world before this event, it can make 99.9 percent. (In the assumption, that in a galactic civilisation will be 200 billion humans.) From this follows, that, despite abstract character and complexity for understanding of the given reasonings, we should pay not smaller attention to attempts to prove or deny CarterLeslie reasoning, than we spend for prevention of nuclear war. Many scientists try to prove or deny Carter-Leslie argument, and

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the literature on this theme is extensive. And though it seems to me convincing enough, we do not apply that has proved this argument definitively. we recommend to all to whom it seems obvious faulty of resulted above reasonings, to address to the literature on this theme where various arguments and counterarguments are in detail considered. Let’s consider some more remarks which work pro and contra Carter-Leslie argument. Important lack in DA by Carter-Leslie is that time of the future survival of people depends on what we will choose number of people in a “long” civilisation. For example, at probability of extinction in the XXI century in 1 % and at the future number of people in a long civilisation in 200 billion there is a strengthening in 1000 times, that is we have 99,9 percent of extinction in the XXI century. If to use a logarithmic scale, it gives “half-life period” in 10 years. However if to take number of people in a long civilisation in 200* 10**15 it will give chance in one million extinction in the XXI century, that there is 2 ** 20 degrees, and expected a halfdisintegration period only in 5 years. So, it turns out, that, choosing any size of a survival time of a long civilisation, we can receive any way short expected time of extinction of a short civilisation. However our civilisation already has existed before our eyes more than 5 or 10 years. To consider this distinction, we can recollect, that the more people in a long civilisation, the less it is probable according to Gott’s formula. In other words, the probability of that a civilisation will die out early - is high. However, apparently, Carter-Leslie reasoning strengthens this probability even more. Thus it is difficult to tell, whether correctly to apply Carter-Leslie reasoning together with Gott’s formula as here it can turn out so, that the same information is considered twice. This question requires the further researches. Carter-Leslie original reasoning contains also a number of other logic punctures which have been generalized by Bostrom in articles, and the cores from them concerns a problem of a choice of a referential class, and also to doubts that sample is really casual. The volume of reasonings on this theme is so great and combined, that here we only in brief will outline these objections. The problem of a referential class consists in a choice of the one whom exactly we should consider as people to whom concerns

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the given reasoning. If we instead of people take the animals allocated with a brain them will be thousand billions in the past, and we can quite expect their same quantity in the future. We see the decision of a problem of a referential class that, depending on what we choose referential class, corresponding event should be considered as the end of its existence. That is to everyone referent class there are own corresponding “doomsday”. For example, that in the future there will be only some more hundreds billions people, in any way does not stir to that in the future there will be thousand more billions beings allocated with a brain. As a result we receive very simple conclusion: the End of existence of the given referential class is “doomsday” for the given referential class. The second logic error in Carter-Leslie reasoning consists in a sample nonrandomness. The matter is that if we was born before the XX-th century we never would learn about Carter-Leslie reasoning and never could ask a question on its applicability. In other words, here there is an effect of observant selection - not all observers are equivalent. Therefore actually Carter-Lesli reasoning can be applied only by those observers who know about it. However it sharply worsens our chances of a survival, given DA. After all DA it is known only since 1980th years of the XX century, that is 27 years. (Moreover, in the beginning it was known only to narrower circle of people. That is these 27 years can be reduced years to 20.) If to take these 27 years, and to apply to them formula, we will receive 50 % of probability of destruction in an interval from 9 to 81 years since the present moment, that approximately means more than 50 percent for the XXI century. Strangely enough, this estimation not strongly disperses from two previous. It is possible to make the reasoning and in another way. We will consider a time interval during which there are global risks. Thus as a starting point we take 1945, and as a point of casual observation - the moment when we have learnt about possibility of nuclear war as one of global risks - 1980. (As lasting event here we consider the period from the beginning of the period of susceptibility to risk before its termination.) So, at the moment of casual observation this risk already existed within 35 years. Gott’s

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formula gives an interval of 50 % for chances of realisation of risk with 12 till 105 years (from 1980). That this event does not happen till now, brings certain shift in an estimation, but, nevertheless, we can tell, that these of 50 % still operate on the rest from an interval in 90 years since 1980, that is till 2070. In other words, the probability of the termination of a situation with global risks makes more than 50 % in the XXI century. Again we got aproximately the same result. The termination it can be both risk realisation, and transition in certain other no-risk condition about which now is impossible to tell anything. If to take into consideration that the risk density grew in a reality in an interval from 1945 to 70th years it considerably will worsen our estimation. In fact, the Doomsday Argument does not mean the final extinction in the near future. It could be only a sharp decline in population. For example, if the population of the Earth will reduce to a few thousand people (creatures) who survive a million years and then disappear, then still the largest percentage of people ever lived will live in the XX-XXI century when the population was several billion and we likely find ourselves now. It may be then that this is not a catastrophe, but rather simple - reduce fertility, plus the emergence of some posthumans. (But this could be the seed of savages, and a group of survivors in the bunker, or a subset of scientists who can understand the DA - if it is less than the current subset, which is so small.) This gives a chance for experimental measurement of DA. But only by those who are born now. If we will live 100 years and see that amount of people on the Earth has been dramatically reduced, it would be a good confirmation of DA. (True, and manyworld immortality, too.) INDIRECT ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITY OF NATURAL CATASTROPHES If not to consider effects of observant selection, we receive very good chances on survival in the XXI century from any natural (but not anthropogenous) catastrophes - from galactic to geological scales as from the fact that they were not during existence of the Earth and our specie, very small probability of follows that they will occur in the XXI century. As any natural catastrophe has not destroyed human ancestors for the last 4 billion years, it is possible

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to conclude, that our chances of doom the XXI century from natural catastrophes make less than 1 to 40 million. (And with the account of high human survivability and adaptability it is less than that.) Unfortunately, such reasonings are essentially incorrect, as do not consider not obvious effect of observant selection and survivorship bias. Owing to this effect expected future time of existence will be less, than the past. Nevertheless hardly the contribution of observation selection makes more than one order. However for different levels of natural catastrophes we have the different characteristic periods of time. For example, the life on the Earth exists already 4 billion years, and, with the account told, it could exist yet no less than 100 - 400 million years. (Observation selection here consists that we do not know, what share of planets of terrestrial type perishes in the course of their evolution; having assumed, that the share of the escaped makes from 1 to 1000 to 1 to billion, we receive estimations in 100-400 million years as a half-life period.) That is the indirect estimation of probability lifedestroying natural catastrophe would be 1 to 4 000 000 for hundred years. It is negligible small size against other risks. But to time of existence of our specie last natural catastrophe threatening to it, was much closer in time, 74 000 years ago (volcano Toba) and consequently we have expected time of existence only 7 000 years with the account of the greatest possible effect of observation selection. Observant selection here consists in that if people were very little hardy specie which dies out with periodicity of times in some thousand years, we could not notice it as we can notice only that branch of our specie which has lived sufficient term for civilisation formation in which we can ask the given question. 7000 years would correspond with the account of a huge error of such reasonings about 1 % of extinction in the XXI century as a result of natural catastrophes or immanent to an instability specie - and it is the maximum estimation in the worst case. If not to take in calculation observation selection chances of natural catastrophe of any sort, leading to mankind extinction, on the basis of last time of existence it is possible to calculate by means of Gott’s formula (applied by time of existence Homo sapiens), and they will be 1 to 1500 for 100 years, that is 0,066 % .

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At last, there are the third sort of the catastrophe which probability we can indirectly estimate on last time, namely, on time during which there is a written history, that is 5000 years. We can safely assert, that for 5000 years there was no catastrophe which would interrupt written history. Here too it is possible observation selection but it is less probable as here operates more strongly not natural, but anthropogenous factors. That catastrophe which could interrupt written history 3000 years ago, for example, supervolcano eruption in Mediterranian, now could not do it any more. Therefore it is possible to tell safely, that the natural catastrophe interrupting written tradition (such as it was in the past, instead of now) has chances no more than 1 % in the XXI century, considering on Gott’s formula (applying it by all time of existence of written tradition). And as now the written tradition is much stronger, than in the past it is possible to reduce safely this estimation at least twice: to 0.5 %. And even such catastrophe which would interrupt writing in the past, will not interrupt it now and will not kill all people. At last, the effect of observation selection can be shown and in the relation to anthropogenous catastrophes, namely, to global risk of nuclear war. (In the assumption, that general nuclear war would destroy mankind or would reject it so far back, that the writing of books would become impossible.) The effect of observant selection here consists that we do not know what were chances of our civilisation to survive during the period with 1945 till 2008 that is during existence of the nuclear weapon. Perhaps, in nine of ten the parallel worlds it was not possible. Accordingly, as a result we can underestimate global risks. If intensity of change of number of observers would be very great, it would have “pressing” influence on date in which we would find out ourselves - that is we most likely would find out ourselves early enough. See more in detail article of Bostrom and where exact calculations for catastrophes cosmological scales are offered. If the probability of risk of extinction would make 90 % a year then we most likely, would live not in 2007, but in 1946. That we am still live in 2007, gives a certain top limit (with the certain set reliability) on rate of extinction (for historical conditions of the XX-th century). Namely: 5 annual period of “half-decay” can be excluded approximately with probability 99,9 (as for 50 years there have

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passed 10 cycles for 5 years, and 2 in 10 degrees it is 1024. That is for 50 years one thousand share of planets would escape only.) Arguing further in a similar way it is possible to exclude authentically enough periods of “half-decay” of a civilisation smaller, than 50 years. However big ones we cannot exclude. It, certainly does not mean, that the real period of “half-decay” is 50 years, however, if to start from the precaution principle than should be assumed, that it is so. Such half-life period would mean our chances to live till XXII century approximately in 25 %. (And it in the assumption, that level of threats remains invariable from the middle of XX-th century.) Conclusions: various independent methods of indirect reasonings give estimations of probability of destruction of a civilisation in the XXI century in tens percent. It should not calm us in the sense that as if it guarantees to us tens percent of a survival. Because if to consider degree of uncertainty of such reasonings it is category events tens percent which as we have assumed in the beginning, means risks from 1 to 100 %.

SIMULATION ARGUMENT N. Bostrom has developed the following logic theorem named a Simulation Argument (we already mentioned it in a context of risks of sudden switching-off of “Matrix”). Here a course of its reasonings: Proceeding from current tendencies in microelectronics development, it seems quite probable, that sooner or later people will create a powerful artificial intellect. Nanotechnology promise limiting density of processors in billion pieces on gramme of substance (carbon) - with productivity of an order 1020 flops. Nanotechnology will allow to transform coal deposits into the huge computer (as the basic building material for it, probably, is carbon). It opens prospect of transformation of all Earth in computronium - one huge computer. Capacity of such device is estimated in 1040 operations in a second. (That corresponds to transformation of one million cubic kilometres of substance in computronium which will cover all Earth with a layer in 2 metres.) Use of all firm substance

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From here Bostrom does a conclusion that at least one statement from three is true: 1) Any civilisation is not capable to reach the technological level necessary for creation computronium. 2) Or every possible computronium will be not interested absolutely in modelling of the past. 3) Or we already live in imitation in computronium. Thus point 2 can be excluded from consideration because there are reasons on which at least some computroniums will be interesting in what circumstances was their appearance, but are not present such universal reason which could operate on all possible, not allowing them to model the past. The reason of interest to the past can be much, we will name is a calculation of probability of the appearance to estimate density of other supercivilizations in the Universe or entertainment of people or certain other beings. Point 1 means, that or computronium and simulations in it are technically impossible, or that all civilisations perish earlier, than find possibility to create it, that, however, does not mean with necessity extinction of carriers of this civilisation, that is for our case of people, but only crash of technical progress

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and recoil back. However it is not visible the rational reasons yet, doing computronium impossible. (For example, statements that consciousness simulation is impossible as consciousnesses äå is quantum effect, does not work, as quantum computers are possible.) And it is impossible to tell, that computronium is impossible basically as people have night dreams, not distinguishable from within from a reality (that is being qualitative simulation) so, by means of genetic manipulations it is possible to grow up a superbrain which has dreams continuously. Thus, the simulation argument is reduced to sharp alternative: Or we live in the world which is doomed to be lost, or we live in computer simulation. So, the destruction of the world in this reasoning does not mean extinction of all people - it means only the guaranteed stop of progress before computronium will be created. “Guaranteed” means not only that it will occur on the Earth, but also on all other possible planets. That is it means, that there is certain very universal law, which interferes suppressing (on many order of magnitude) to the majority of civilisations to create computronium. Probably, it occurs simply because computronium is impossible, or because modelling of human consciousness on it is impossible. But it can be that it occurs because any civilisation cannot reach level of computronium as faces certain unsoluble contradictions, and is compelled or to be lost, or will be rolled away back. These contradictions should have universal character, instead of to be connected only, say, with the nuclear weapon because then civilisations on those planets in which there is no uranium bark, can steadily develop. The theory of chaos which does systems above certain level of complexity essentially unstable can be an example of such universal contradiction. Another example of a universal law that restricts the existence of systems - is aging. It works so that no one can live 120 years, although each is specific cause of death. We can say that speed up the progress - is aging vice versa. Note that the existence of universal destruction process, giving the upper limit of the existence of all civilizations, the existence of which underlines the Universal DA of Vilenkin and Olum, means much greater pressure on the average of civilization. For example, the upper limit of human life in 120 years, but the mean life expectancy is about 70 years. Universal destruction

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should suppress even the most resilient civilization, and we most likely are the average civilization. Consequently, the process must begin to act on us sooner and with surplus power. The known objection leans against these reasonings is that reality simulation not so necessarily is a copy of that was in the past. (Whether the review of objections to the Simulation Argument in Daniel Medvedev’s article Are we living in the N. Bostrom’s speculation?) And if we are in the designed world it does not allow us to do conclusions about what is the real world. As from a computer game the monster, for example, cannot guess a real world arrangement of people. However that we do not know, what world outside of simulation, does not prevent for us to know, that all of us are in simulation. Here it is important to distinguish two senses of a word “simulation” - as computer model and as that fact, that this model reminds a certain historical event from the past. Thus it is possible to assume, that the majority of simulations are not exact similarity of the past, and the considerable share of simulations does not concern at all the past of that civilisation which then has created them. As well in the literature the majority of novels is not historical novels, and even historical novels not precisely coincide with the past. If we are in simulation, we are threatened with all the same risks of destruction which can happen in reality, plus intervention from authors of simulation who to us can throw certain difficult problems or investigate on us certain extreme modes, or simply take a fun at our expense as we have a good time, looking through films about falling of asteroids. At last, simulation can be simply suddenly switched off. (Simulation can have a resource limit, therefore authors of simulation can simply not allow to create to us so complex computers that we could start our own simulations.) So, if we are in simulation, it only increases the risks which have hung over us and creates essentially new - though there is a chance of sudden rescue from authors of simulation. If we are not in simulation the chance is great, that any civilisations because of catastrophes do not reach creation level computronium which we could reach by the XXI century end. And it means, the probability of certain global catastrophes which will not allow us to reach this level is great. If we adhere Bayesian logic, to us

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followed attribute equal probabilities to independent hypotheses. And then we should attribute to a hypothesis that our civilisation will not reach level computronium 50 % of probability (that means a failure to achieve it or imminent collapse of civilization). This estimation coincides in the order of size with estimations which we have received in other ways. It turns out, that the reasoning on simulation operates in such a manner that it’s both alternatives worsen our chances of a survival in the XXI century, that is it net the contribution negative irrespective of the fact how we estimate chances of one of two alternatives. (My opinion consists that probability of that we are in simulation, is higher than probability of that we a real civilisation to which can be lost, and on many orders of magnitude.) It is interesting to note repeating pattern: the alternative with SETI also has negative net-effect - if extraterrestials are nearby we are in dangers, if they are not exist, we too are in danger as it means, that some factors prevent them to develop. INTEGRATION OF VARIOUS INDIRECT ESTIMATIONS All resulted indirect estimations are executed independently from each other though give identical and unfavourable results, consisting that the probability of human extinction in the XXI century is high. However as these reasonings concern the same reality, there is a desire to unite them in more complete picture. The Bostrom’’s simulation argument exists logically separately from a Carter-Lesli doomsday argument (which else is necessary to connect with Gott’s formula), and accordingly there is temptation to “marry” them. Such attempt is undertaken in work of Istvan Aranyosi The Doomsday Simulation Argument. Them, in turn it is interesting to connect with manyworld immortality in the spirit of Higgo and with influence of effect of observation selection. Interesting such attempt is undertaken in already mentioned article of Knob and Olum Philosophical implication of cosmological inflation. In a counterbalance to Local Doomsday argument in the spirit of Carter-Leslie, they put forward Universal Doomsday argument. Namely, they show, that from this, that we find out ourselves in the early form of mankind, follows, with high probability, that the set of people which is in short-living civilisations, is more, than set of all people who are in all long-

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living civilisations on all Universe, or, in other words, the quantity of long-living civilisations is not enough. It besides means, that chances of our civilisation not to live millions years and not to occupy a galaxy - are rather great, however changes the probable reasons of extinction: namely, it will occur not because of any local reason, concerning only to the Earth, but because of a certain universal reason which more likely would operate on any planetary civilisations. We should be anxious, they write, not an orbit of a concrete asteroid, but that in all planetary systems there are so many asteroids that it does a survival of civilisations improbable; we should be anxious not by that a certain concrete nearest star becomes supernova, but that lethality of supernovas is essentially underestimated. We should notice, that the same conclusion that the set short-living civilisations considerably surpasses set longliving, follows and from a reasoning on simulation Bostromà (above) if in quality short-living civilisations to consider simulations. I believe that the essence of this integration should be that we will find out, that one reasonings block others that is what of them are stronger in logic sense. (It is thus possible, that the subsequent researches can give more exact picture of integration, and will reduce all separate calculations to one formula.) we see such order of capacity of statements (stronger statements cancelling weaker, from above). However we do not mean that all of them are true. a. The qualitative theory of consciousness based on concept about qualia. Qualia is the philosophical term designating the qualitative party in any perception, for example, redness. The nature and reality of qualia are object of intensive discussions. Theories about qualia do not exist yet, there are only a few logic paradoxes connected with it. However, apparently, the theory about qualia can exclude representations about plurality of the worlds and linearity of time. Owing to it such theory, if it be created and proved, would make unauthorized any below-mentioned reasonings. b. A reasoning on immortality of J. Higgo, based on idea about plurality of the worlds. In this case always there will be a world where we and the part of a terrestrial civilisation

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accordingly, will not be lost. The reasoning on immortality Higgo is very strong because it does not depend neither on a doomsday, nor from, whether there are we in simulation or not. Immortality on Higgo does a personal doomsday impossible. Any owner of simulation cannot affect work of reasoning Higgo in any way because always there will be an infinite quantity of other simulations and the real worlds, in accuracy coinciding with given in time present situation, but having with it the different future. However reasoning Higgo leans on self-sampling assumptionthat is idea that we are one of copies of set of the copiesand all subsequent reasonings lean against the same ideasimulation argument, Gott formula, a on Carter-Lesli doomsday argument. Any attempts to deny immortality on Higgo, based on impossibility of consideration of as one of copies of set of the copies simultaneously deny also all these reasonings. c. Bostrom’s simulation argument. It too works in the assumption of plurality of the worlds whereas the subsequent reasonings do not consider this fact. Besides, if we actually are in simulation we do not observe the world during the casual moment of time as simulations, more likely, will be adhered to historically interesting epoch. At last, reasonings in the spirit of DA demand possible continuous numbering of people or time that in case of set of simulations does not work. Therefore any forms DA become invalid, if the reasoning on simulation is true. The reasoning on simulation is stronger than CarterLeslie doomsday argument and Gott’s formula because it works, irrespective of how many still people will be in our real world. Moreover, it essentially washes away concepts about quantity of people and volume, that such the real world as it is not clear, whether we should consider the future people from other simulations, as real. Not clearly also, whether each simulation should feign all world from the beginning up to the end, or only a certain piece of its existence only for several people. d. Gott’s Formula. Gott’s formula confidently works concerning the events which have been not connected

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Biological Disaster Management with change of number of observers, for example, concerning radioactive disintegration, date of a pulling down of the Berlin wall, a prediction of duration of a human life etc. However it gives much softer estimation of the future duration of existence of mankind, than CarterLeslie argument. Gott’s formula is more simple and clear tool for a future estimation, than Carter-Leslie reasoning. At least because Gott’s formula gives concrete numerical estimations, and Carter-Leslie reasoning gives only the amendment to initial probabilities. Further, Gott’s formula is applicable to any referential classes as for any class it gives an estimation of time of end for this class. And in Carter-Leslie reasoning the death of the observer is mentioned usually, and he should be adapted to situations where the observer does not die. Question on, whether it is necessary to apply the amendments given by a reasoning of Carter-Leslie to estimations which has given formula Ãîòòà, demands the further research. e. Carter-Leslie argument. The important condition of argument of Carter-Lesli (in its interpretation Bostrom) is non-existence of other civilisations, besides terrestrial. Besides, it is very difficult to think up real experiment in which it would be possible to check up force of this reasoning. And mental experiments work with certain stretches. f. Fermi’s paradox is too in the bottom of this table as a reasoning on simulation evidently cancels its value: in simulation the density of civilisations can be any, no less than risk of their aggression, depending on whim of owners of simulation.

All told here about indirect ways of an estimation is on the verge between provable and hypothetical. Therefore we suggest not to take on trust made to a conclusion, but also not to reject them. Unfortunately, researches of indirect ways of an estimation of probability of global catastrophe can throw light on our expected future, but do not give keys to its change.

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2 The most Probable Scenario of Global Catastrophe Now we can try to generalise results of the analysis, having presented the most probable scenario of global catastrophe. It is a question not of an objective estimation of real probabilities which we can calculate only concerning falling of asteroids, but about value judgment, that is best guess. It is obvious that such estimation will be painted by personal preferences of the author, therefore we will not give out it for the objective precisely calculated probability. Depending on what will appear the new information, we will correct the estimation. In this estimation we consider both probability of events, and their affinity to us on time. Therefore we attribute small probabilities nanotechnological grey goo which though it is possible technically, but is eclipsed by earlier risks connected with biotechnologies. Precisely also creation of the nuclear Doomsday Machine too demands many years and is economically inexpedient, as the damage of such scale more cheaply and will faster put by means of the biological weapon. These assumptions are made concerning offered threats even with the account of that people will try to resist to them so, how much they can. So, we see two most probable scenarios of global definitive catastrophe in the XXI century, leading to full human extinction: 1) Sudden scenario connected with unlimited growth of an artificial intellect which has unfriendly concerning human of the purpose.

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Biological Disaster Management 2) System scenario in which the leading part is played by the biological weapon and other products of biotechnologies, but also will be used the nuclear weapon and microrobots. Will play also the role distribution of superdrugs, pollution of environment, exhaustion of resources. The essence of this scenario that there will be no one factor destroying people, and will be a shaft of set of the factors, surpassing all possibilities on a survival.

The most probable time of action of both scenarios - 20202040. In other words, we believe, that if these scenarios are realised, more than 50 % chances is that they will occur to in the specified time interval. This estimation occurs from this, that, proceeding from current tendencies, hardly both technologies will ripen till 2020 or after 2040. Now we will try to integrate all possible scenarios with the account of their mutual influence so that the sum was equal 100 % (thus it is necessary to consider these figures as my tentative estimation to within an order). We will estimate the general probability of human extinction in the XXI century, according to words of sir Martin Rees, in 50 %. Then following estimations of probability of extinction seems convincing: • 15 % - unfriendly AI or struggle of different AI destroys people. we attribute AI such high probability because AI possesses ability to find and influence all people without an exception - in áîëüøåé to a measure, than other factors. • 15 % - system crisis with repeated application of the biological and nuclear weapon. • 14 % - something unknown. • 1 % - uncontrollable global warming and other variants of the natural catastrophes caused by activity of human. • 0,1 % - natural catastrophes. • 0,9 % - unsuccessful physical experiments. • 1 % - grey goo - nanotechnologyical catastrophe • 1 % - attack through SETI • 1 % - the nuclear weapon of the Doomsday • 1 % - other.

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The remained 50 % fall to chances of that in the XXI century people will not die out. They see consisting of: • 15 % - Positive technological Singularity. Transition to a new stage of evolutionary development. • 10 % - Negative Singularity in which course people survive, but lose value. Variants: survived in the bunker, a zoo, the unemployed at the TV. The power passes to AI and robots. • 5 % - Sustainable development - the human civilisation develops without jumps in technologies and without catastrophes. It is offered as the best variant by traditional futurologists. • 20 % - Recoil on a stage post-apocaliptic the world. Different levels of degradation. Now we will consider possible influence on these figures of different forms of the doomsday argument. Gott’s formula taken concerning all quantity of people on the Earth, gives not so high chance of extinction in the XXI century - at level of 10 percent, however considerably limits chances of mankind to live a next millenium or bigger term. One more variant of reasonings with use DA and Gott formulas consists in its reflective application - and legitimacy of such application is seriously challenged. Namely, if to apply Gott’s formula to my rank (that is number by date of appearance) in set of all people which know about Gott’s formula or DA it will be soon definitively denied, or chances of a survival in XXI century appear illusive. It is connected by that one of the most extreme and disputable decisions of a problem of referential classes whom concerns DA, consists that it concerns only those people who know about it - and such decision of a problem of referential classes was offered by pioneer of DA B. Carter when for the first time reported about DA at session of the Royal society. Extremeness of this decision that as in the past is a little people who know DA (about ten thousand at the moment), that fact that we find out myself so early in this set, speaks, agrees to the logic of DA, as in the future will be approximately the same amount of people knowing about it. As the number knowing about DA is continuous un-linearly grows, through several decades years it should reach millions. However, it agree to the logic of DA, it is improbable,

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that we have found out myself so early in this time set. Hence, something will prevent that the set knowing about DA will reach such big size. It can be or refutation DA, or that will not be simple people who will be interested in it. As well as many other things can be denied variants DA, this variant, having specified that we am not casual observer DA during the casual moment of time, and certain features a priori inherent to me have led to that we am interested in different unchecked hypotheses at early stages of discussion. Carter-Leslie reasoning does not give a direct estimation of probability but only modifies a priori estimation. However the contribution of this updating can be so considerable, that the concrete size of an a priori estimation of probability doesn’t not important. For example, J. Leslie results the following example of application of a reasoning of Carter-Leslie in the book: a priori probability of extinction in the near future in 1 %, and rupture between number of mankind at “bad” and at the “good” scenario in one thousand times. Then these a priori 1 % turn through Bayes formula in a posteriori 50 %. However if we apply the same assumptions to our a priori probability of extinction in 50 % we will receive chances of extinction in 99.9 %. At last, the third variant of the Doomsday Argument in formulation Bostrom-Tegmark adapted by me to less scale natural processes, does not render essential influence on probability of natural catastrophes in the XXI century as limits degree of underestimation of their frequency to one order, that all the same gives chance of less than 0,1 %. The worst display of effect of observation selection is underestimation of probability of global nuclear war which would lower the maximum frequency of this event from one event of times in several decades years, to one event of times in several years would be absolutely not obligatory. Nevertheless the top border is yet value so here all not so is bad. So, indirect ways of an estimation of probability of global catastrophe or confirm an estimation of an order of 50 % in the XXI century, or sharply increase it to 99 % - - however those variants of reasonings in which it sharply increases, do not possess as much high - 99 % - validity degree. Therefore we can stop on a total estimation in more, than 50 %.

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Much easier is to think out scenarios of global catastrophe than the ways of its prevention. It suggests that the probability of global catastrophe is rather great. Thus all described scenarios can be realised in XXI a century. N. Bostrom estimates probability of global catastrophe as not less than 25 percent. Martin Rees in 30 percent (for 500 next years). In my subjective opinion, it more than 50 percent. Thus its annual probability is more than 1 percent and also grows. The peak of this growth will be on first half of XXI century. Hence, very many depends on us now. At the same time to predict the concrete scenario at the moment it is unreal, as it depends on set of unknown human and random factors. However, the number of publications on themes of global catastrophes grows, files on risks are made, in several years these ideas will start to get into authorities of all countries. Meanwhile, the defensive value nanotechnology is already visible and creation possibility of “grey goo” is clear. The understanding of gravity of risks should unite all people on a transition period that they could unite in the face of the general threat. The analysis of risks of global catastrophes gives us the new point of view on history. Now we can estimate modes and politicians not from the point of view of what good they have made for the country, but from that point of view from which it is visible, how much effectively they prevented global catastrophe. From the point of view of the future inhabitants of XXII century will not be important how well or badly we lived, but how much we have tried in general to survive for our future. In summary it makes sense to express basic unpredictability of global catastrophes. We do not know, whether there will be a global catastrophe, and if yes, how and when. If we could know it where we would fall we wouldn’t have come to that place at all. This ignorance is similar to that ignorance which each human has about time and reason of his death (let alone that will be after death), but human has at least an example of other people which gives statistical model of that, as to what probability it can occur. At last, though people and not very much like to think of death, but nevertheless from time to time everyone thinks about it and somehow considers in the plans. Scenarios of human extinction are practically superseded in the public unconscious. Global

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catastrophes are fenced off from us by a veil as the technical ignorance, connected with our ignorance of real orbits of asteroids and to that similar, and psychological, connected with our inability and unwillingness to predict and analyze them. Moreover, global catastrophes are separated from us by theoretical ignorance - we do not know, whether the Artificial intellect is possible, and in what limits, and we do not know how correctly to apply different versions of the Doomsday Argument which give absolutely different likelihood estimations of time of a human survival. We should recognize that at some level catastrophe has already occurred: the darkness of incomprehensibility shrouding us has eclipsed the clear world of the predicteable past. Not without reason one of the articles of N. Bostromà is called: Technological revolutions: Ethics and a policy in dark. We will need to collect all clearness of consciousness available for us to continue our way to the future.

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3 Methodology of the Analysis of Global Risks The basic part of methodology of the analysis detection and elimination of possible errors in reasonings on global risks or the factors conducting to incorrect estimations and then to incorrect decisions is represented. Then a number of reasons of recommendatory character how it is necessary to carry out the analysis of global risks follows. Our reasonings on global risks are subject to those or other regular errors and distortions which influence final conclusions of these reasonings, and, hence, and on our safety. Errors not quite exact word - in English it is called ‘ cognitive biases’, that it is possible to translate as biases “or” deviations during reasonings , or, if to use the exact psychological term, êîãíèòèâíûå distortions . Êîãíèòèâíûå distortions are natural property of human mind, and in it there is no shade of”fault”which from a school bench is connected with our representation about”errors”. However it is important to know, that as distortions is a natural property of human, arisen evolutionary by everyone is subject to them and can find them in the reasonings. The basic way of correction distortions - experiment - cannot help us in case of global risks. Therefore we should approach much more responsibly to a problem of faultless thinking about them. It is thus important to remember, that any lists distortions are intended for search of errors in the thoughts, instead of for a victory in disputes with other people as in the second case it will result only in accumulation of errors in the system and closeness to the new information.

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Even if the contribution of each of several tens possible errors is small, together they can reject a likelihood estimation of this or that scenario in times and lead to the wrong appendix of means of maintenance of safety. It is not difficult to be convinced of force of these errors - to interrogate the several people knowing the same facts about human history enough, and to ask to give them the confident forecast for the XXI century - and you will see, final conclusions will differ how much: one will be assured of inevitability of exhaustion of oil, others to trust in a celebration, the third to expect a world pandemic; one we will consider probability of application of the nuclear weapon huge, others to believe, that it is extremely improbable. The researcher of global risks should know about these reefs. In this section attempt to make the list of such errors is undertaken. Works of foreign and Russian researchers, and also author’s operating time are used. The base text on a problem is article Judkovsky Regular errors in the reasonings, potentially influencing an estimation of global risks in the collection mentioned already Risks of global catastrophe. The given list does not replace this article in which the mathematical and psychological analysis of some resulted here distortions is resulted. However many descriptions of factors of errors are taken from other literature or are found out by the author. The analysis of possible errors in reasonings on global risks is step on a way to creation of methodology of work with global risks, so, and to their prevention. The aspiration of the different groups investigating alternative scenarios of the future is interesting, to make the the list of intellectual traps. For example, recently there was article about ‘ cognitive biases’, influencing a theory estimation of “peak, that is exhaustion of stocks of oil. The work purpose - to reduce possible distortions in the convenient and structured list. Thus the maximum attention is given completeness of the list, instead of the proof of each separate point. The given list does not apply neither for completeness, nor on accuracy of classification, and its some points can appear are identical to another, but told differently. The detailed explanation of each separate possible error in a risk estimation would occupy all volume of article.

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At the same time it is important to remember, that to errors in reasonings in the same measure peculiar pathological selforganising, as well as to errors and chains of events which lead to real catastrophes. It means, what even the small errors leading to a small deviation of estimations, tend to be hooked one for another, especially at appearance of a positive feedback with them. The fallacy is an intellectual catastrophe. It is easy to track on an example of real failures as erroneous reasonings of pilots of planes led to catastrophes, and even to designate, in reasonings they have made which errors. It is possible to tell, that almost any catastrophe occurs because of human errors. These errors are chronologically built so: after errors in reasonings on possibilities there are errors in designing, in “preflight” preparation, in piloting, in management of a critical situation, in elimination of consequences of failure and in the analysis of its reasons. Our reasonings on global risks basically concern the first stage, to reasonings on possibility and a tentative estimation of those probabilities or other risks. There is no sense to build opposition strategy to global risks before priorities were defined. Accordingly, the errors resulted in given article also concern, first of all, the earliest phase of counteraction to global risks. However they can prove and later, at a stage of designing of mechanisms acceptances of concrete decisions are sewn up also. Nevertheless, in this text the problem about the analysis of errors at later stages of protection against global catastrophe though a number of the reasons of erroneous actions of “operators” is mentioned is not put. Separate question is when such errors can happen. One of these errors occur in the course of discussions in “peace time” when the society solves, it should prepare for which risks. Others are to the full shown in emergencies when people are compelled to estimate quickly their danger and to make of the decision. Roughly speaking, it is accepted to divide all errors into errors of “designer” and “pilot”. Errors of “designer” are made by the big groups of people for many years whereas errors of the pilot are made by one or small group of people within seconds or minutes. It can be incorrect, generally speaking, concerning global catastrophes in case the situation will start to develop so quickly,

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that designing and management will actually develop in one rate. There is also a probability, that some descriptions of errors which we here result, can appear objects of my incorrect understanding - that is too to be erroneous. Also is not present the slightest doubts, that this list is not full. Therefore the given list should be used more likely as a launching pad for the critical analysis of any reasonings on global risks, but not as the tool for statement of the definitive diagnosis. Dangerous illusion consists that errors in reasonings on global risks or are insignificant, or it is easy îáíàðóæèìû and óñòðàíèìû. Roots of this illusion in a following reasoning: Time planes fly, despite all possible errors, and in general a life on the Earth proceeds, value of these errors is insignificant . It is analogy it is incorrect. Planes fly because during their evolution, designing and tests thousand cars have broken. And behind each this failure there were someone’s errors which each time were considered and as a whole did not repeat. We do not have thousand planets, which we can break to understand how us correctly to address with an explosive combination, nuclear and AI of technologies. We cannot use and that fact, that the Earth is still whole for any conclusions about the future (Natural catastrophes and Antropic principle see my article) because cannot be done statistical conclusions in one case. And, of course, especially because the future technologies will essentially change a life on the Earth. So, we are deprived a habitual way of elimination of errors - checks. And, nevertheless, right now it is the most important to us not to be mistaken in mankind history. Probably, that there is a number distortions and logic paradoxes which are shown only in reasonings on global risks and which are not found out by us yet, but completely change all all course of reasonings. Precisely also we do not wish to tell, that all researchers commit all errors listed here. On the contrary, the majority of these errors, possibly, are axiomatic to the majority of researchers - or at all do not seem errors. However there is a chance, that any errors are passed. Under the term we mean distortions here not only logic infringements, but also any intellectual designs which can influence final conclusions and increase risk of global catastrophe. Some

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resulted errors can not lead in current circumstances to any consequences, nevertheless, it is useful to mean them. Possible kinds of errors and distortions are divided into following groups: 1. Errors, possible only concerning global risks owing to their specificity. 2. Errors, possible concerning an estimation of any risks, with reference to global risks. 3. The factors influencing acceptance of incorrect decisions, to be shown in situations of global risk. 4. The Obshchelogichesky errors, able to be shown in reasonings on global risks. 5. The specific errors arising in discussions about danger of uncontrollable development of an artificial intellect (and also specific errors in reasonings about nano - bio-and others ïðîðûâíûõ and dangerous technologies - including in nuclear technologies and astronomies.)

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4 Errors, Possible only Concerning Threats to Mankind Existence There is a tendency to confuse the global catastrophes conducting to extinction of mankind (designated in the Englishspeaking literature the term existential risks) and any other enormous catastrophes which can bring a huge damage rejects a civilisation far back and to exterminate a considerable part of mankind. Criterion of global catastrophes is irreversibility. In Russian while there is no settled short term for the catastrophes conducting to extinction of mankind. There is still a term-tracingpaper - existential risks. (Is more detailed about definition of global catastrophes and their specificity Threats to existence see article Íèêà Bostromà . The analysis of scenarios of human extinction and similar dangers.) Difference between these two kinds of catastrophes - not in number of the lost people and the sufferings tested by them, and the future of a planet after them. If will escape though one tribe in 100 humans through some thousand years on the Earth again there will be states, cities and planes, and the lost civilisation in any sense will be revived under ancient texts. (From ancient Greeks remained, by some estimations, only 1 Aa information, and their influence on culture has appeared huge.) As example of such difference catastrophe in which all mankind dies out, and catastrophe in which it dies out everything, except several humans who then recreate human population as antiquated Ache can serve. From the point of view of the separate human there is no visible difference between two these catastrophes. BOTH in that and in other case it will be lost almost

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for certain, and everything, that to it is valuable, also will be lost. However for mankind as whole it is a difference it is equivalent to a difference between death and very heavy illness. And this difference also consists that illness can be long and painful, and then will end with recover, and the death can be easy, instant, but necessarily irreversible.

UNDERESTIMATION OF UNEVIDENT RISKS Global risks share on obvious and unevident. Unevident risks it is somewhat much more dangerous, because their volume is unknown, their probability, and in connection with them is undertaken nothing. Some unevident risks are known only to a narrow circle of experts which express opposite opinions in an estimation of their reality and probability. These opinions can look for the detached onlooker in an equal measure proved, that forces it to choose between opinions of experts, or proceeding from humanal preferences, or throwing a coin. However unevident risks bear quite real threat and before the scientific community will definitively be defined with their parametres. It forces to pay attention to those fields of knowledge in which relation there are more many questions. In process of growth of our knowledge of the nature and power of technics, the number of the reasons of possible human extinction known to us constantly grew. Moreover, this growth is accelerated. Therefore it is quite intelligent to expect, that there are the major risks about which we know nothing. And those risks about which we physically cannot learn anything while they will not happen are worse from them. Besides, obvious risks are much more convenient for analyzing. There is a huge volume of data on a demography, military potential and stocks of raw materials which can be analyzed in details and in detail. The volume of this analysis can cover that fact that there are other risks about which we very little know and which do not suit the analysis in the numerical form but which too are mortally dangerous (for example, problems with incorrectly programmed AI). It is easy to notice, that at the moment of emergency development, for example, in aircraft, misunderstanding by pilots of that occurs (especially errors in an estimation of height and

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degree of danger of process) has the most terrible consequences. On the contrary, when such understanding is available, the plane manages to be rescued often in absolutely improbable conditions. And though a posteriori causes of catastrophe are obvious to us, for pilots they were during that moment is made are unevident.

GLOBAL RISKS NATIONAL SAFETY Each country spends for national safety of more money, than for the global. However global risks represent the big threat for each country, than national - is simple because if all world, also the country together with it is lost. Thus often those actions which increase safety of the given country at a current stage, reduce general safety. For example, safety of a certain country increases,anyway, according to its management - when it accumulates stocks of the nuclear and bacteriological weapon, but safety of all world as a result of arms race falls. Or, for example, a problem of the Russian Federation is depopulation, and for all world - an overpopulation (no less than for Moscow). Still an example: one American fund realises the project on prevention of global risks and terrorist attacks to America. But for us it is clear, that the first and the second - not one and too. THE ERROR CONNECTED WITH A PROBLEM Long since there is a stereotype of the supporter of “doomsday”, the interpreter of an apocalypse, - as outcast a society of the individual, trying the ridiculous statements to raise the social importance and to compensate, thus, the failures in the finance and private life. Without dependence from the validity or ëîæíîñòè such interpretation of psychological motives of people, it does not influence degree of risks. Only exact calculations can define real weight of risk. Psychological researches have shown, that people in a depression condition give more exact predictions for the future events, than usual people if it does not concern their own life. AN IDENTIFICATION OF GLOBAL CATASTROPHE WITH DEATH OF ALL PEOPLE AND ON THE CONTRARY Extinction of mankind does not mean destruction of all people, and on the contrary. It is easily possible to imagine scenarios when

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the mankind most part perishes from certain epidemic, but one island will escape and for 200 years will restore human population. However if all people are ill with a virus translating a brain in a condition of continuous contemplate pleasure it will mean the civilisation end though the huge majority of people some time will be still live. Or if - in a certain fantastic scenario - aliens win the Earth and will sell people on space zoos. Moreover, all people living at the moment if radical means of prolongation of a life is not invented, will die out to the beginning of XXII century, is equal as the people living in XIX century have now died out. But we do not consider it as global catastrophe because the mankind continuity remains. The present global catastrophe will deprive of us the future.

A STEREOTYPE OF PERCEPTION OF CATASTROPHES WHICH HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF WORK OF MASS-MEDIA Mass-media create a false image of global catastrophe that subconscious impact on estimations can make. Experience ñìîòðåíèÿ television reportings on catastrophes has developed a stereotype, that a doomsday to us will show on CNN. However global catastrophe will mention everyone, and to look reportings there will be nobody. No less than to show. In mass-media disproportionate illumination of risks regularly takes place. For example, it is interesting to compare scales of a possible damage from global warming and a bird flu mutation in a dangerous virus. Not pressing in discussions, we will tell, that often it appears, that the real damage is disproportionate to its information illumination. As human is inclined to unconscious training, and in general quantity of statements which can be apprehended critically, these ideas create a certain information background for any reasonings on global risks (on a level with cinema and science fiction). The possible errors connected by that global catastrophe still never with us occurred a certain scenario as fantastic - but also global catastrophe cannot be something other, than “fantastic” event. The Error, able to arise in connection with neorealization of that fact, that any events it is impossible to identify as global catastrophes in advance, in process - but only a posteriori. Probably,

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nobody learns, that it actually was global catastrophe. Catastrophe becomes global only after death of last human. (However in scenarios of slow extinction people can realise it - or to be mistaken in this respect. The possible example of the similar scenario is described in novel “Ashore” where people slowly die out from consequences of radioactive pollution.) Inapplicability of logic operation of “induction” for reasonings on global catastrophes. The induction as a logic method consists in that, the assumption, that if a certain statement is true during the moments 1,2, 3 … N it is true and at N+1 (or at all N). It does not possess absolute logic reliability, but gives good results at very big N and smooth conditions. For example, all physical laws are based on final quantity of experiments, that is have resulted from an induction. The induction as a logic method has applicability borders. It is inapplicable in situations when the future is not similar to the past. In other words, we cannot, on the basis of that something was in the past always, to tell, that so it will be and in the future. Induction application in type reasonings is especially dangerous: time of this catastrophe was not in the past it never will be in the future. (However an induction as logic procedure is applicable in safety issues: from a point of maintenance of safety thrice periodic repetition of dangerous event - is very significant, whereas from the point of view of the proof of the validity of a certain law - is not present.) Danger of a competition between the different groups of people protecting different models of rescue of the world is thus underestimated. Eventually, each world religion is engaged in rescue of all mankind, and the others to it only stir. So struggle of saviours of the world among themselves can threaten a life on the Earth. It is possible to recollect a joke of Soviet times: War will not be, but there will be such struggle for the world, that from the stone world on a stone does not remain.

UNDERESTIMATION

OF GLOBAL RISKS BECAUSE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL

MECHANISMS OF IGNORING OF THOUGHTS ON OWN DEATH

People are not excited with global risks because they and so have got used to inevitability of humanal death the next decades

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and have developed steady psychological mechanisms of protection against these thoughts. The greatest term of real planning (instead of speculative imaginations) can be defined under long-term real investments of people. Typical reflexion of such planning is house purchase in the mortgage, pension accumulation and education of children - a deadline of these projects - 30 years, with rare exception, and usually it is less 20. However not the fact, that such planning actually is effective; and people in the majority know, that the life is much more unpredictable. In any case, each human has a certain horizon of events, and the event outside of this horizon represents for it purely speculative interest, - and after all the majority of people considers, that global risks will defend from us for many decades.

The errors connected by that the one who investigates global catastrophes as a whole, is compelled to rely on opinions of experts in different areas of knowledge It is often found out, that there is a set of opinions on any problem which look in an equal measure is given reason. A.P.Chehov wrote: If from illness many means are offered, mean, it is incurable. Owing to it the researcher of global risks should be the expert on correct selection and comparison of expert opinions. As it is not always possible, always there is a probability of a wrong choice of a pool of experts and wrong understanding of their results.

The error connected by that as whole give to global risks of less attention, than to risks of catastrophe of separate objects Global risks should be estimated on the same scale, as risks of all other objects making a civilisation. For example, there is no sense to pawn in the plane probability of failure one on one million if all civilisation with set of planes has smaller reliability.

The error connected by that the risk comprehensible to one human or the project, extends on all mankind Ideas such: the Mankind should risk on the one 100-th percent for the sake of this new extraordinary result are vicious because

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so can argue simultaneously many researchers and designers, each of which thus overestimates safety of the project, that in the sum can give very high risk.

Absence of that clear understanding to whom instructions on global risks are turned Whether they are turned to citizens who all the same cannot make anything, to a civil liability of the scientists which existence else it is necessary to prove, to the governments of large world powers or the United Nations which were engaged in by the affairs, or to the commissions and the fund specially aimed at prevention of global risks - whose ability to influence a situation is unknown. Depresses also absence of the regular file on all riskswith which all would agree.

Feature of communication theoretical and practical concerning global risks The question on global risks is theoretical as such event did not occur to time yet. And we do not wish to check up any possibility experimentally. Moreover, we also are not able to do it, because we, researchers, we will not go through global catastrophe. However we should take practical measures that it does not happen. Thus we can observe positive result: namely, that a certain risk has not happened, but it is difficult to establish the reasons why it has not occurred. It is impossible to tell, why there was no thermonuclear war - because it was impossible, or because to us has improbably carried, or it is result of struggle for the world.

The erroneous models of the behaviour connected with by developed features of human behaviour The strategy of humanal survival which have been brought up in us during evolution, means a rule: the one who risks more, that grasps the big territory, receives áîëüøèé authority on flight, becomes the alpha male and, eventually, leaves, probably, áîëüøåå posterity. Those kinds which are ready to offer thousand individuals, directing them in all possible parties, reach that though one individual will get on the new Earths. It is obvious, that this strategy is deadly to mankind as a whole. Even if the mankind

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will risk itself for 1 percent a year, it means almost guaranteed extinction within century. However the separate countries repeatedly risked the destiny, entering in dangerous conflicts.

Erroneous representation that global risks are something kept away and not concerning the near future Actually, chance to be lost in global catastrophe for the young man in current historical conditions, it is possible, above, than from other reasons of humanal or group death rate. Many factors of global risk have already ripened, and others can appear more mature, than we about it know (front lines bio-and research AI-).

The thoughtless relation to the global risks, connected with representations about instantaneousness of death It arises from erroneous representation that in case of global catastrophe destruction will be obligatory easy and painless as though have switched off light. But in a reality, on the contrary, it can be painful and morally (comprehension of the fault and collision with death of relatives), and physically. For example, long, but inevitable extinction from radioactive contamination.

Representation that books and articles about global risks can change a situation considerably Even when members of boards of the companies, making critically dangerous decision, spoke against - to them did not listen. (Before Challenger’s catastrophe there was a human who objected to start, understanding its danger.) especially it is not necessary to expect, that these people will listen or will read at least statements of those who is outside of their party. (It is possible to recollect pertinent here Murphy’s law: Whatever happens, always there will be a human who will tell, that he and knew, that it will occur.)

An inaccuracy of opinion that global risks either are inevitable, or depend on casual factors not subject to human, or depend on far governors, to affect on which it is impossible On the contrary, circulation of certain ideas in a society, namely that global risks are possible and it is necessary to make efforts

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for their prevention, can create a certain background which will indirectly affect those or other mechanisms of decision-making. Besides, already now we approach closely to that boundary when risks depend on our concrete decisions and actions.

Arrogance of the researcher The sensation can cause employment by the analysis of global risks in human, that it does the important issue in the Universe that is why is the supervaluable human. It can lead in certain circumstances to that it will be deafer to the new arriving information. Surrounding people will easily read out this condition of human of the researcher that will compromise a theme in which he is engaged. Also it is not necessary to forget law Ïàðêèíñîíà that each human aspires to reach level of the incompetence. Global level is the highest for all fields of knowledge. Protection against it is concerns global risks neutrally, also as to preparation of frogs.

Intuition as a source of errors in thinking about global risks As global risks concern events which never happened, they êîíòðèíòóèòèâíû. The intuition can be useful to a birth of new hypotheses, but not as a way of preference and the proof. The belief owing to the intuition promotes blinding by the revelations even more. Besides, intuition as display unconscious, can be under the influence of not realised biases, for example, the latent unwillingness to see destruction and destruction - or on the contrary, requirements to see them there where they are not present.

Scientific research of global risks also faces a number of problems Experiment is not way of an establishment of true about global risks for experimental check is what we wish to avoid. In connection with impossibility of experiment it is impossible to measure objectively, what errors influence an estimation of global risks. There can not be statisticans on global risks. The fundamental concept also is inapplicable to theories about global risks.

The errors connected with of little-known logic consequences of absoluteness of global risk Only in case of global risks such paradoxical logic reasonings as the Theorem of the Doomsday (Doomsday Argument), and also

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effects of observant selection, however they are unknown to the majority of people start to operate, and the considerable share of their researchers rejects.

Methods, applicable to management of economic and other risks, are not applicable to global risks They cannot be insured, on them it is impossible to put a bet: there is nobody and will nothing to pay in case of an insurance case. And even their slightest probability is unacceptable. Therefore there is nobody to pay their researches. If these researches are spent within the limits of one country or culture, in them shift from questions of a universal survival to problems of national safety for this generality can be observed.

Difficulties in definition of concept of global risk in connection with an illegibility of its object The illegibility concerns as how to spend mankind borders, and to what to consider as irreversible damage of its potential”.” The boundary question concerns the monkeys-primacies who were not born children, êîìàòîçíèêîâ, criminals, Neanderthal men, intelligent artificial intellects and other possible extreme cases. It is important to remember historical variability of these borders in pair hundreds years ago the savage or the slave was not considered for human even by the formed people, and now consider whales and a dolphin as intelligent beings. Whether there was a destruction of Neanderthal men from their point of view destruction of mankind? Whether we that we were replaced with intelligent robots agree? Whether the death of violent zombiing in hostile religion is better? Has put at all in these questions, and that the answer to them depends on a human arbitrariness that leads to that one groups of people we will consider as” global catastrophe that others will be ready to welcome. It creates possibilities for dangerous confrontation.

Erroneous representation that global risks threaten people, only while people are closed on the Earth, and resettlement in space will automatically remove a problem However the scale of forces and which people on the Earth seize, grows faster, than rates of space expansion. Roughly

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speaking, it means, that when people will occupy Solar system, they will possess the weapon capable repeatedly to destroy of it. If global catastrophe is accompanied by the armed struggle on any phase space settlements become its objects easily. Only having dispersed a spaceship till such speed on which it cannot be caught up, it is possible to count on rescue of fugitives. However if the crisis reasons root in the human nature, flight is useless - people will create dangerous types of weapon both by the ships, and on space colonies. At last, the information contamination, like computer viruses or AI attack, can be transferred with a velocity of light.

Psychological feature of perception of risks human, named neglect in scale Rescue of a life of one child, one million humans, billion or hundred billions causes almost identical prompting to operate, including expressed in readiness to spend money. As a result the most part of money and attention leaves on the projects protecting a smaller part of lives.

Exaggeration values of extrapolation Potential inaccuracy of hope that a curve (that is the growth schedule) will take out. For some people there was religion Moore’s law on doubling of number of transistors on the processor each two years. Alas, all experience of futurology says that extrapolation of curves suits only short-term forecasts. In more applied futurology which the exchange analytics is, it is turned out the huge device of the analysis of behaviour of the curves, repeatedly surpassing linear extrapolation as though these curves were independent live organisms. In particular, the understanding of is developed that fast growth of a curve can mean a close turn of the tendency, “candle”. Nevertheless, even the exchange analytics of curves does not give high-precision results without “base” attraction the analysis of real economy. Especially for the feedback effect account between predictions and future events. Quantity of errors in the futurology, the curves based on extrapolation, hugely. That manure level in London will make movement on a city impossible, and up to forecasts of development of Mars by the end of the XXth century at the beginning of successes of astronautics. Concerning

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global risks there are certain expectations, that progress in technics area by itself will result us in “Golden Age” where global risks will not be. Really, there are hopes, that the future technologies of an artificial intellect become the basic of much faster and effective decision of problems. However if technical progress stops, global risks will not disappear.

Erroneous representation that people as a whole do not want catastrophe and a doomsday A.P.Nazaretjan describes base requirement of people for strong emotions and extreme sensations which induces them to break a high-speed mode of movement of cars, to wage wars, to get mistresses, more shortly, to find adventures. Also it is impossible to underestimate boredom. (The typical example to that is that it would be possible to limit number of car catastrophes, having entered physical restriction of speed of cars yes 50 km/hour, but the majority of drivers on it would disagree.) thus people always “rationalise” these irrational requirements, explaining ostensibly the real reasons.

Vagueness of representations what is the hurting factor in different scenarios of global risk From the childhood the learnt representations about hurting factors of the nuclear weapon, essentially differ from factors of decision-making on its application - and all this difference is obvious. In sphere of global risks superviruses and AI are listed through a comma. But the virus kills directly, and AI in itself cannot cause harm - it can operate different types of weapon only. Example from a life: a situation when human was lost on war, and a situation when it have shot. These two sets are crossed only partially. If human was lost on war, it means many the possible reasons of his death, and not just that have shot it. And on the contrary, if human was lost from fire-arms, it does not mean, that it was lost on war: it can be both household quarrel, and suicide, and catastrophe on hunting. Clearly, that war and a shot - concern two different classes of causes of death: dangerous situations and immediate causes. However concerning global risks such division is spent more vaguely, and the emphasis becomes basically on immediate causes, instead of on a situation of their appearance.

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A future shock: the distortions connected with different horizons of the possible future in representation of different people Allocate five levels of “a future Shock. The concept is entered by futurologist E.Tofflerom. These levels describe not real borders possible which while are unknown to us, and the psychological borders of perception different at different people. To each level of the possible future there correspond the global risks - and ways to them of opposition. Thus all these variants of the future concern their supporters the XXI century. Those who has promoted very far in an estimation of shocks of the future, can underestimate traditional dangers. There is a following classification of shocks of the future: Shock of 0th level - level of the usual technologies used now in a life. (Catastrophe levels: nuclear war, exhaustion of resources.) Shock of 1st level - level of the technologies offered in advanced magazines and at computer exhibitions. (Biological war and application of fighting robots.) Shock of 2 levels - the technologies described to classical science fiction of the middle of the XX-th century. (A deviation of asteroids towards the Earth, intrusion of aliens) Shock of 3 levels - supertechnologies which have appeared on horizon only in the end of the XX-th century: Nanotechnology (a clever dust), AI equal to human, consciousness loading in the computer, full reorganisation of a human body. Shock of 4th level - the concept about Singularity - the hypothetical moment in the future, connected with infinite acceleration of human progress, a certain qualitative transition and change of model of development (risks: are unpredictable). See the head technological Singularity further. The risks of an error connected with a shock of the future, consist that each human modelling the future, has different horizon possible and impossible, defined more likely its psychological comfort, than exact knowledge. The human is more senior, the more difficultly to it to accept the new. On the contrary, the situation blinding future when threats of improbable catastrophes will eclipse usual risks in the opinion of human is possible also. Thus the risks of global catastrophe are available at each level.

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Catastrophe in the form of nuclear war is more clear, than pseudo-friendly AI.

Representation that global catastrophe will be caused by any one reason Usually of global catastrophes think, how about the unitary mass extinction caused either a virus, or asteroid falling, or nuclear war. However there are ways of self-organising of dangerous possibilities which create system effect. For example, the system weakened by one event, can be easy another. Or, for example, two slowly current illnesses, incorporating, can cause swift-flowing as, for example, AIDS and a tuberculosis in human. Different scenarios of convergence are possible, for example, Nanotechnology will simplify creation of nuclear bombs, AI will simplify creation nanotechnologyé, and Nanotechnology will allow to learn secrets of a brain that will approach AI creation. Convergence of risks occurs in parallel to convergence of the key modern technologies named NBIC (nano-bio-info-cogno), that is nanotechnologyé, biotechnologies, systems of an artificial intellect and a science about thinking and a brain.

Underestimation of system factors of global risk System factors are not separate events, like sudden appearance of a supervirus, and certain properties which concern all system. For example, the contradiction between the nature of the modern civilisation based on continuous expansion, and finiteness of any resources. This contradiction is not localised in any one place, and does not depend on one concrete resource or the organisation. Self-reproduced crisis situations which during each moment of time involve in itself all big number of participants of community are real, but do not depend on behaviour of any of them and have no centre.

A type appeal: All of us should struggle for the world If it is too much people and the organisations will make the various not co-ordinated efforts in struggle for planet rescue at the best there will be a situation described by known expression a swan, a cancer and a pike.

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Underestimation of precritical events as elements of coming global catastrophe If as a result of some events the probability of global catastrophe has increased (in other words, vulnerability of mankind to catastrophe) this event itself can be considered as a part of global catastrophe has grown. For example, if as a result of nuclear war separate groups of people they - not numerous and deprived of technologies - will appear survive is much more vulnerable to any other risk factors. It lifts value of those factors which are usually designated as global risks. For example, asteroid falling, in size with (Apophis 99942, flight of the Earth in 2029, diameter about 400 m.) In itself cannot exterminate mankind as explosion will make only an order of 800 megatons that is comparable to explosion of volcano Ñàíòîðèí in ancient Greece, ruined island Crete, and only in 4 times is stronger than explosion of a volcano of Krakatau in 1883, estimated in 200 megatons of a trotyl equivalent. However as connectivity of a modern civilisation has considerably increased, the role kept away - economic and structural consequences different catastrophes has increased also. The huge wave-tsunami from falling Àïîôèñà could lead to the trade termination in Pacific region and to the general economic crisis fraught with transition to the military man - with corresponding increase of irreversible consequences.

The distortion based on idea: It is too bad to be the truth Human can be protected mentally from the most negative scenarios, attributing it smaller probability or in general refusing about them to think. For example, it is easy to imagine any car broken, but it is more difficult to present the future fragments of the car. In other words, instead of avoiding there is nobody events, human avoids thoughts on this event. It is obvious, that the global catastrophe destroying everything, that to us it is valuable, in the greatest measure corresponds to definition “too bad”. Global catastrophe is worse, than death because includes it.

The distortion based on idea: It is too improbable to be the truth We have many historical examples of how something, that was “improbable”, suddenly became possible, and then and ordinary (planes, nuclear bombs, the Internet). Moreover, became

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mortally dangerous. It is necessary to separate “improbable” from physically impossible, but even the last in the future can appear possible.

Ideas about braking of creation and distribution of new technologies as a way of opposition to global risks This idea seems attractive as promise visible result in shortterm prospect in a certain place. But any group of the countries which advances this idea, finally, will lose to other group which secretly or obviously continues to develop dangerous, but effective technology.

Representations that the human adaptability is high and continues to grow beyond all bounds thanks to new technologies It is true, however danger consists that the destructive agencies accessible to people, are improved faster, than protection frames.

Inability of system to simulate Though we cannot investigate global catastrophes experimentally, we can count, that, thanks to successes of computer modelling, we can count some models in virtual space. However this possibility is limited by a number of circumstances. First, all of us equally will not consider factors unknown to us - for example, an arrangement of dangerous comets or feature of physical laws. Secondly, such model cannot be full, as it does not include modelling of that we carry out the modelling certificate. Infinitely big model, as in case of reflexion of two mirrors the friend opposite to the friend otherwise would turn out. It is a consequence of a mathematical principle: the set cannot contain, as an element, itself. That is one business - the future forecast, and another - its forecast with the account of influence which will render the given forecast. Only the model with defined can be calculated. If we investigate the future behaviour of system with an artificial intellect it does not work as the model also should contain AI. Thirdly, our data about the world and modelling principles should be absolutely exact, that too is difficultly achievable. We cannot choose correct model, not having made experiment. To predict possibility of global warming, the correct model is necessary to us. To learn, which model correct, experiment is necessary to us. And this

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experiment will be reliable, only if during it there will be a global warming, differently it will be only interpretation, that is one more model.

Inability of human to present own death Inability of people to present own death conducts to underestimation of situations in which it can occur as also situations only from the point of view of the external observer who has survived. Human cannot present “anything” which will be, according to atheistic concepts, after death. On it the unwillingness to recognise own death rate is imposed. Therefore it is easier to it to represent global catastrophe from the point of view of survived, that accordingly, does it not global.

The approach by a life in the spirit of: After us though a flood In this model of thinking the expected useful result should be received in a certain short time interval in the future. The vivid example is the situation described in the resulted proverb where the utility border coincides with expected life expectancy. However often happens, that it even below it! For example, for the race driver or the addict all expected utility should be received tonight, and that will be further - not important. At normal people expected utility extends on children and grandsons that is fixed, but on it does not extend. Thus, there is a certain psychological horizon of utility, events after which human any more do not excite - anyway, so, that it was ready to make for the sake of them any expenditure. Certainly, it is justified by that they there with all will understand. Moreover, the thought that we will die not one, and together with me will die all mankind the thought can be more attractive, than, that we will die, and others remain to enjoy a life. Partly therefore some sick of AIDS purposely try to infect as much as possible people.

Any ethical position which does not consider a survival of people as an overall objective, more important, than any other purposes The similar position means, that it is possible to risk survival of mankind for the sake of some other purposes. Bostrom defines

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this position through principle: Maximize probability of a positive outcome where the positive outcome is any outcome at which there is no global deadly catastrophe.

Religious outlooks and eschatological cults To studying of problems of global risks stirs that this territory is from time immemorial fixed to religion. Therefore behind any discussions on this theme the unscientific nature loop lasts. Key difference of eschatological cults - concentration on event date and “revelation” or a prophecy as a way of its detection. (In the spirit of extended that calendar, and the world together with it, come to an end in 2012.) such cults often have socially destructive character, inducing people to refuse a life in the “doomed” society and consequently cause animosities in a society.

Uncertainty of values of new terms Describing threats of global catastrophe, we use the terms which values for the present have no unequivocal interpretation, at least owing to that they describe the events which have not happened yet and not created technologies. Sharing of several such terms increases possible values and leads to misunderstanding. If we knew, that such “artificial intellect”, we already could create it. It creates basic uncertainty of value of this term before AI will be created.

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5 Influence an Estimation of Global Risks The superconfidence means the raised conviction in correctness of the picture the worlds and its inability it is essential to change at receipt of the new information. In other words, the superconfidence means inability of human to assume, that he at the moment is mistaken. Therefore in any sense the superconfidence concerns errors about the nature of errors. The superconfidence is fixed by several psychological mechanisms, and it is probable, had evolutionary value. Therefore to find out it in itself and to eradicate it very difficultly. Human showing the big confidence, can apply for the big power in a society. And, possibly, itself devices of human thinking contradicts idea of consideration of set equiprobable: to think that something or is much more habitually, or it is not present. The word “future” is used in a singular, as though it one. At last, once the made choice towards one interpretation becomes the filter which selects the information so that she confirmed this idea.

Excessive attention to slowly developing processes and underestimation of the fast Slow processes are more convenient for analyzing, and on them it is saved up more than data. However systems adapt for slow changes is easier and perish often from the fast. Catastrophe it is more dangerous than fading. Thus slow fading does system vulnerable to fast catastrophes. Working out of new technologies sciences - concerns fast processes. Their prompt development eclipses any processes which will prove after 2030. However it

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does not mean, that it is necessary to refuse the analysis of slow century changes absolutely. Age features of perception of global risks: The youth is inclined to underestimate global risks as they in áîëüøåé to a measure are biologically aimed at a gain of new spaces, instead of on safety. More older humans are inclined to give enough great value of safety, but it is more difficult to them to accept possibility of essentially new technologies. Disputes do not give rise to true about global risks: Discussions between people usually lead to polarisation of opinions. Human who had in the beginning two hypotheses which attributed equal probabilities, reduces the position to one hypothesis opposite to a hypothesis of the opponent. Thus, it narrows the representation about the possible future. See article Yudkowsky about an estimation of risks more in detail. Skill of conducting disputes is harmful: As we already spoke in the foreword, Yudkowsky underlines, that skill of conducting disputes is harmful, as allows to out-argue any opponent, not penetrating in essence in its position. Application of the given list êîãíèòèâíûõ distortions to accuse of them of the opponent is especially dangerous. It can lead to intellectual blindness. Desire of death: Freud has stated idea about aspiration to death which is at everyone. Similar ideas expressed also other scientists. This desire can influence human, forcing it to underestimate or overestimate risks or to aspire to them. It is possible to assume, that any who rejects idea to live 1000, tests certain aspiration to death. It can unconsciously push human to choose the strategy conducting to global risks. The conservatism of thinking connected with natural selection of the steadiest systems of outlook: C.Doukins, the author of the book Selfish gene, considers each separate idea circulating in a society, as a replicator, capable to different speed of self-distribution and names such objects (meme). That it will be protected from them, the human consciousness is compelled to develop original immune system, one of which most effective variants is the system reject all new. The history is full of how obviously useful new ideas were rejected without the visible reasons during the long period. For example, from the offer to use

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nitrogen for anaesthesia in surgery in the end of XVIII century prior to the beginning of real application in 1840th years there have passed almost 50 years, the same concerns also rules to wash hands before operations. However in our century of changes very flexible and free thinking is necessary to consider and accept seriously all variants of global risks. Detection of errors in a reasoning on possibility of a certain concrete catastrophe is not way of strengthening of safety : There are two kinds of reasonings - proofs of safety of a certain system and the proof of its danger. These reasonings logically in the first case it is a question of all chances, whereas in the second - at least about one case. To deny the general statement, enough one counterexample. However the refutation of one counterexample almost does not add the validity to the general statement. For example: to prove danger of a certain plane, it is enough to specify of that in some experiments the covering material has shown propensity to effect of “weariness of metal. However to prove safety of the plane, it is absolutely not enough to find out an incorrectness in carrying out of these experiments on measurement of weariness of metal. Instead it is necessary to prove, that the chosen material will really sustain the given mode of loadings. In other words, if to direct all intellectual efforts to a refutation of various catastrophic scenarios, not giving equal attention to their possibilities and errors in safety system, - that total safety of system will go down. All listed rules should be applied to search of errors in reasonings that a certain catastrophe is impossible, - then it promotes safety. In projects of difficult technical systems always there are technical substantiations of safety where the maximum design failure and ways of its localisation is described. The real proof of safety is strict the proof of that something cannot happen under no circumstances plus - practical experience of use of the given device in all possible modes for a long time. From the point of view of a science we should prove, object existence, and from the point of view of safety -- - to prove, that something does not exist. The duty of the proof of safety lays on

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designers of the plane, instead of on passengers. Therefore the requirement of developers to extraneous experts: prove, that the given risk is real - the damage of the general safety causes. Any of directions of researches in new technologies cannot provide the safety in itself: Because each system aspires to selfpreservation, and conversations on danger of new technologies can lead to closing of new projects. For example, the site Commercial biotechnology reprints basically those articles which deny bioterrorism threats though then itself prints on them refutations. Or the same in a case with reactors. Supporters of the atomic power station will spend the efforts not for search in safety of stations, and on disputes with ecologists and attempts to prove, that the existing design is safe, is can reach attempts to stop up opponents. Erroneous representation that when the problem will ripen then it is possible to start to prepare for it: The most serious problems arise suddenly. The more seriously a problem, the more its energy and - it is possible - faster rate of its development. And the more difficultly to it to prepare. Global catastrophes are powerful problems. Therefore they can develop too quickly that to them to have time to be prepared in process. Besides, we do not have experience which would allow to define harbingers of global catastrophe in advance. For example, catastrophes develop suddenly. Concrete risks are perceived as more dangerous, than described in the general words: For example, “mutiny on a nuclear submarine” looks more, than “large sea catastrophe”. Yudkowsky writes: From the point of view of probability theory, addition of an additional detail to history does by its less probable … But from the point of view of human psychology addition of each new detail does history more and more authentic. Representations that the thinking about global risks - is pessimistic: It leads to that the people thinking of “doomsday”, condemn - so, and deny their ideas. But on a minefield it is necessary to go it is realised: to dance on it blindly is not optimism. Plot theories as an obstacle for the scientific analysis of global risks : Circulating in a society various theories of plots (like Fomenko’s new chronology) have set the teeth on edge. As the

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majority if not all from them, false, and their predictions almost never come true. Often theories of plots too predict certain risks. But they structurally differ from the scientific analysis of risks. The plot theory usually asserts, that the mankind is threatened only with one risk, and this risk is realised by concrete image during the concrete moment of time: For example, the dollar will fail in the autumn 2007. As a rule, the author also knows the recipe as with this risk to struggle. Whereas more correctly to assert, that the mankind is threatened with cascade reaction from several risks, and we do not know, when and that happens. The is worse we predict the future, the it is more dangerous. The main danger of the future - its unpredictability. Plot theories are harmful to a future prediction as narrow representation about set of the future possibilities. Thus they assume superconfidence in own abilities. The good prediction of the future does not predict the concrete facts, and describes space of possible scenarios. And on the basis of this knowledge it is possible to allocate central points of this space and to protect them. Moreover, such “predictions” undermine trust to the sensible ideas laying in their basis, for example, that large act of terrorism can weaken dollar and cause collapse chain reaction. ALSO that Ben Laden too understands it, and on it, probably, counts. Plot theories always mean, that there are certain THEY which with us do something, hide etc. It undermines comprehension of the responsibility for an event in the world and that is not less important, rejects an catastrophe role, as important factor of catastrophic process. Besides, plot theories are incapable to be joined with each other, formulating space of possibilities. And any theory of plot does not recognise itself as that. These theories extend in a society as, self-copied information units. At the same time from this, that the principle of the theory of plots is compromised also the majority of them false, does not follow, that some of such theories, nevertheless, cannot turn out to be true. Even if you cannot catch a black cat in a black room is does not mean yet, that it there is not present. The errors connected with mess of short-term, intermediate term and long-term forecasts: The short-term forecast considers a current condition of system, the majority of discussions concerns

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that on a theme of a policy. Intermediate term considers possibilities of system and current tendencies. Long-term considers only development of possibilities. we will exemplify it the following: Let’s admit, we have a ship with gunpowder on which sailors go and smoke makhorka. It is in short term possible to argue so: one sailors stand highly on a yard, and others sleep, therefore today explosion will not be. But in intermediate term prospect the quantity of gunpowder and quantity of smoking sailors which define probability of explosion because sooner or later any smoking sailor will appear in a wrong place are important only. And in äàëüíåñðî÷íîé to prospect in the account there is only a quantity of gunpowder, and fire somehow yes will be. In the same way and with threat of nuclear war. When we discuss its probability the next two months, for us the concrete behaviour of world powers matters. When we speak about the next five years, to the account there is a quantity of nuclear powers and rockets. When we speak about prospect on tens years, to the account there is only a quantity of the turned out plutonium. Thus in different areas of knowledge the time scale of brevity of the forecast can differ. For example, in the field of coal output of 25 years is a short-term forecast. And in the field of manufacture of microprocessors - 1 year. Features of human emotion of fear: Ability of human to be afraid joins in reply to concrete stimulus in a concrete situation. Our emotion of fear is not intended for an estimation of the remote risks. It is expressed in Russian proverb: While the thunder will not burst, the muzhik will not cross. On the other hand, the fear can suppress thoughts on possible dangers. For example, when human refuses to hand over analyses because is afraid, that at it something will find. Concerning global catastrophes the vicious circle turns out: that the probability of a certain approaching global catastrophe became conventional - should burst “thunder” - that is there should be a certain event, is unequivocal its defining, and, probably, doing it practically inevitable.

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Underestimation of value of remote events (discount rate): Natural property of human is that it gives smaller value to the events which removed in space and have been kept away in time. For example, the flooding which has happened in an antiquity which have ruined one million human, will be equivalent on the importance to modern catastrophe with òûñÿ÷üþ victims in the remote country or to a fire in the next house with several victims. It is known as discount rate - discount level. This discount operates in the relation an estimation of utility and risk of the future events. Thus it has both rational, and irrational character. Rational level of the discount is a discount which is done by the economic subject, preferring to receive, say, 100 dollars today, instead of 105 in a year, - and this the discount is slowly decreasing function from time. On the contrary, the emotional estimation of a situation includes very quickly decreasing level of the discount which decreases in time. It leads to that global catastrophe, for years from the present moment, gets almost zero weight. Conscious unwillingness to know the unpleasant facts: It is shown in a situation, when human postpones a campaign to the doctor not to know the unpleasant diagnosis. Though it reduces its chances to survive in the long-term future, but he wins in the quiet near future - that is here discount level too is shown. Effect of displacement of attention: The more a certain human gives attention to one possible reason of global catastrophe, the less it gives to another and as a result its knowledge gets certain shift towards its specialisation. Therefore revaluation of any one global risk conducts to underestimation of others and also is harmful. The Internet as a source of possible errors: The Internet as sir Martin Rees underlines, we allow to create the newspaper today, by selection only those sites which support a starting point of sight of the subject which then strengthens itself in the chosen position, constantly reading only the adherents. Not saying that on the Internet low level of reliability of the information as the considerable part of a good trustworthy information is in paid editions, for example, articles in Nature on 30 dollars for article, and any human can freely lay out the texts in a network, creating high information noise. Thus more sensational materials extend

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faster, than less sensational. In other words, if earlier the printed matter promoted faster distribution of better texts now the Internet promotes faster distribution of less qualitative, but more importunate in the advertising of sources. On the other hand, the Internet accelerates access to the information and accelerates its search. Beliefs: Difficultly of the beliefs as they it is perceived as authentic knowledge or as an incompetent imperative, but it is easy to notice, how those or other superstitions influence an estimation of risks other people. For example, high breakdown susceptibility in Turkey is connected, in particular, with a principleon all will of the Allah: as destinies of all people are written already down in the book at the Allah it is not important, that you do - day of your death is already appointed. Therefore it is possible to risk somehow. Sir Martin Rees writes, that in Reagan’s administration for environment religious fundamentalist James Uatt who believed answered, that the Apocalypse will come earlier, than oil stocks will be settled, woods will be lost and there will come global warming so to waste resources are almost that our duty. Many beliefs can carry more thin, pseudo-scientific or “scientific” character, as belief in correctness or Einstein’s wrongfulness, danger or safety of this or that risk etc. Beliefs do not mean falsification possibility. To reveal belief it is useful to ask a question: What event or a reasoning would force me to change my point of view to this question?

CONGENITAL FEARS Many people have congenital fears - a dragon, heights, waters, illnesses. It is not difficult to assume, that they will overestimate the events reminding these fears, and to underestimate what are unlike them. An estimation of risks can influence and a posttraumatic syndrome when a certain strong fright was remembered and now all similar things frighten. On the contrary, strong desires can suppress fears, in the spirit of a saying: If it is impossible, but very much it would be desirable, it is possible. For example, human with congenital fastidiousness can overestimate risk of biological war and underestimate risks of falling of an asteroid, and, on the contrary, human, gone through catastrophe,

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will exaggerate risks of falling of an asteroid, and to underestimate biological risks.

THE ERROR RESULTING BECAUSE OF STRUGGLE NOT WITH A SOURCE OF RISK, AND WITH MESSAGES ON RISK The discontent is transferred not on a source of risk, and on human who has informed on it, in the spirit of east rule: to Kill the messenger who has brought a bad message. we repeatedly faced the rigid criticism directed on mine humanal lacks, and charges in “paranoia” when suggested to discuss those or other risks. DIFFICULTY IN DELIMITATION OF OWN KNOWLEDGE We do not know what we do not know. It creates sensation of that we know everything because we know everything, that we know. That is creates false sensation, conducting to intellectual blindness and unwillingness to accept new data. A.Kamju: the Genius is the mind which has realised the limits. But while we completely do not learn the world, we cannot settle the list of global risks. Humour as the factor of possible errors: The joke gives the right to human lawfully to speak a lie. Accordingly, it creates expectation at those who hears unexpected news, that it is a joke. For example, the security guard of embassy in Kenya has called the partner and has informed, that terrorists have approached on collars with a pistol; that has not believed and has switched off communication; the bomb has blown up. As we do not know, in what form to us global threat can come, we can apprehend the message on it, as a joke. It is possible to recollect and Reagan’s joke that nuclear attack to the USSR will begin in 5 minutes which he has told for microphone check before performance that has led to reduction of the Soviet army in alertness. A panic: The hypertrophied reaction to stress leads erroneous and dangerous actions. For example, human can jump out of a window at a fire though fire has not reached yet it. It is obvious, that the panic influences and thoughts of human in a stress condition. For example, one human, in a peace time adhering àõèìñû (a yoga principle about AI live beings), during war

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developed the plan of explosion of dams in AI to flood cities. That is the panic can be long enough condition essentially changing models of behaviour. But also the short-term panic is dangerous, as the situation of global risk can develop very quickly, in hours and even minutes, and strategic decisions should be accepted for this time. Drowsiness and other factors of natural instability of the human consciousness, influencing appearance of errors : On one of versions, Napoleon has lost Waterloo because has been chilled. How it is possible to expect, what the president will make the true decision, being woken among night? Here it is possible to add and basic inability of human precisely to follow instructions, and finiteness of length of instructions which it can understand and execute. Though it concerns first of all errors of operators, it is possible to present, that a condition of time turbidity of consciousness will affect and conclusions of the designer or the composer of a certain instruction, having led is admissible, to an error in the drawing. Propensity of people to struggle with dangers which already were in the past: For example, was a tsunami of 2004, and now all began to build systems of preventions of a tsunami. And next time it will be not a tsunami. Thus with a current time the alarm of people decreases, and the probability of repeated strong Earthquake (but not) - increases. Weariness from catastrophe expectation: The error, consisting that after some catastrophe happens is typical, all start to expect repetition in the near future the second precisely same and after this expectation is not executed, translate this catastrophe in the category it was for a long time and a lie. So was after act of terrorism on September, 11th. At first all waited for repeated attacks to skyscrapers, and building of skyscrapers in the world was braked. Now all about it have forgotten, and building of skyscrapers goes by accelerated tempo. It contradicts that in a reality of catastrophe of such scale can occur to periodicity in many years and consequently after a long time interval their probability really increases. The weariness from catastrophe expectation is expressed and in loss of sensitivity of a society to preventions.

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The expert estimations which have been not based on strict calculations, cannot serve as a measure of real probability : Unlike a situation in the share markets where the average estimation of the best experts is used for a prediction of the future result, we cannot estimate and select our experts on global risks by quantity of the catastrophes guessed by them. Besides, that the rate in an estimation of global risks is very high - survival of mankind is does not lead automatically to that predictions become more exact. In experiments on a prediction the following statistics is found out: Only 73 % of answers on which have made rates 100:1, were true (instead of 99.1 %). Accuracy has increased to 81 % at rates 1000:1 and to 87 % at 10.000:1. For answers on which put 1.000.000:1, accuracy made 90 %, that is corresponding level of trust should generate rates 9:1. As a result, examinees often were mistaken even at the highest levels of rates. Moreover, they were inclined to do very high rates. More than half of their rates was more than 50:1. Similar levels of errors have been found out and in experts. Hynes and Vanmarke (1976) seven world famous geotechnicians about height of a dam which will cause destruction of the base from clay breeds have interrogated, and have asked to estimate an interval of 50 % of confidence round this estimation. It has appeared, that any of the offered intervals did not include correct height. The reason of this error is the superconfidence of expertsfor example because the expert is afraid to lose the status of the expert if will doubt too the opinions. Ignoring any of risks because of its insignificance according to the expert: Even if a certain theory is really unintelligent, it is necessary to waste time and efforts to deny in its clear and convincing image for all in open discussion. Besides, insignificance does not mean impossibility. Insignificance of risk should be result of research, instead of an occasion to refuse research. Besides, the correct understanding of insignificance is necessary. For example, if we accept an estimation 10

for probability of global catastrophe,

as insignificant (namely so estimates CERN risk of catastrophe on the new accelerator) if to make such experiments every day it will give 3 % of chances of extinction within 100 years or the guaranteed extinction within 3000 years.

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Underestimation or revaluation of our ability to resist to global risks: If we underestimate our ability to resist to global risks owing to it we will not undertake those actions which could rescue us. If we overestimate our abilities it to resist, it can lead us to excessive complacency. The Stockholm syndrome: It is a question of effect of loyalty or even love of hostages for the thief. In any sense it can be shown in the philosophical concept which approves death rate of human and limitation of its term of a life 100 years. But if death rate of human is approved, from here one step before approval of death rate of all mankind. Behind errors of the operator there is a wrong preparation: Behind concrete errors of pilots, operators, dispatchers and politicians often there are conceptual errors in their selection and preparation. For example, a connivance to their authority (the case with the well-known Egyptian pilot who by definition could not be mistaken - and has broken the plane) and economy on training. The scientific analysis and spread of knowledge about global risks can be considered as a part of such preparation for humans making of the decision in the future. The group of people can make the worst decisions, than each human separately: Depending on the form of the organisation of group, it can promote or interfere with development of intelligent decisions. A good example - a staff or scientific research institute, a bad example - flight, crowd or the country captured by civil war. Until in the world there is no the uniform conventional group making of the decision on prevention of global risks, the situation is closer to a bad variant more likely. Limitation of number of free registers in mind of human and the model of thinking reflected in each offer: the subjectobject-action - as possible sources of errors: It forces human to concentrate on one aspects of a problem, like, whether will attack AND on, REDUCING THUS (IMMERSING IN AN ATTENTION SHADE) OTHER ASPECTS. Any human cannot capture all world problems in the mind to range them on degree of their danger. Hardly it can also the organisation. Futurology split on different disciplines as though these processes occurred independently: There are some variants of

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thinking about the future, and they have propensity oddly not to be crossed, as though it is a question of the different worlds. - Forecasts approach Singularity. Supercomputers, biotechnologies, and nanorobots. - Forecasts of system crises in economy, geopolitics and wars. - Forecasts in the spirit of traditional futurology about a demography, resources, warming. Special type of forecasts - the big catastrophes: asteroids, supervolcanoes, superflashes on the sun, a magnetic field, plus religious scenarios and fantastic scenarios. A situation when after a smaller problem follows big, but we are incapable it to notice (the Trouble one does not come): Global catastrophe can come as a result of a chain of more and more scale events, however the first of these events can cover for us perception of following risks. The reasons of it can be: 1) Our attention at the moment of failure completely distracts. For example, having got to small failure, the driver starts to go round the car, and here other, rushing car runs into it. 2) affect Influences. 3) human himself makes still the big mistake in the course of correction of the small. For example, when the small pilferer shoots at the policeman to disappear. 4) Misunderstanding of that the first failure creates an unevident chain of causes and effects which can turn out suddenly because of a corner. 5) the First trouble gradually weakens resistibility of an organism to faster and sudden changes. For example, the flu is fraught with a pneumonia, at wrong treatment. 6) Misunderstanding of that both failures can be caused a certain unevident general reason. For example, something has fallen off, human has gone to look - that, and here it has fallen off entirely. 7) Euphoria from overcoming of the first catastrophe can force to lose prudence. (For example, human is torn to leave hospital before, and at it seams disperse.)

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Effect of selectivity of attention: Often the people who are watching certain predictions, for example in economy, have a question: For what reason what should fail just about, all does not fall and does not fall? It is probable, we deal with a specific error in an estimation of risks. Noticing cracks in the base, we speak to ourselves: “So! It just about will fail” and we start to search for other cracks. Certainly, we find them, and it is not difficult to us to connect them in a speculative network. But, being engaged in searches of cracks, we cease to look at support. Our attention becomes selective, we would like to confirm the hypothesis. We get to a vicious circle of selective accumulation of the information only about one aspect of instability of system, ignoring the reasons of its stability, and also other risks connected with this system. Overestimate of some risks, finally, leads also to their underestimation as a society gets immunity to negative forecasts and loses trust to experts. For example, the station of the prevention of a tsunami on Hawaii has appeared before a dilemma: if to warn the population about risk of a tsunami, next time to the prevention will not believe and if not to warn - probably what exactly this time the tsunami will appear dangerous. The Thai service of the prevention in 2004 has decided not to warn people about a tsunami, being afraid to frighten tourists. Subconscious desire of catastrophe: Aspiration of the expert on risks to prove correctness of the forecasts causes in it not realised desire of that predicted catastrophe all the same has happened. It pushes him or to exaggerate harbingers of coming nearer catastrophe, or even to tolerate those events which can result in it. People also can want catastrophes from boredom or owing to the masochistic mechanism of “negative pleasure. Use of messages on risks for attention attraction to itself, money and increase of the social status: This type of behaviour can be defined as syndrome - in honour of the Italian swindler who was giving out for the expert on safety issues. In the sharpest case human invents certain risks because knows, that a society and mass media on them will sharply react. This model of behaviour is dangerous that from the general context the most entertainment risks are pulled out some, instead of less dangerous, but not so sounding risks are shaded. Besides, the society has an

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accustoming to messages on risks, as in a fairy tale on the boy which the Wolf shouted , the Wolf!, and a wolf was not. When the wolf has come actually, anybody to the boy has not believed. Moreover, there is a public allergy on messages on risks, and all messages start to speak in terms of public relations and division of money. Use of a theme of global risks as a plot for entertaining mass media: In critical situations in own way pleasantly, and a small prick it it is possible to receive adrenaline allocation, having looked a documentary film-katasrofu. It leads to that conversations on risks start to be perceived as something frivolous, not concerning a humanal reality and problems, even as something pleasant and desired. A logic error of generalisation on the basis of art fiction : It is described at Bostromà as distortion in the spirit of good history . Regular consumption of entertaining products - films, novels - subconsciously forms model of risk which becomes ripe, threatens, interestingly develops, but then çðåëèùíî is overcome, - and all game goes almost on the equal. Real risks are not obliged to correspond to this model. Even if we try to avoid influence of works of art, the film sits at us in subconsciousness, creating, for example, erroneous representation, that problems with the Artificial intellect it is obligatory war with robots. One of forms of this error consists that in the fantastic novel the usual world undertakes invariable and to it one fantastic detail is added, and then possible consequences of it are considered. Another - that opponents get out equal on force. The third - that the norm of end of history considers a happy end. However in business of prevention of global risks there can be no happy-end - if we have prevented all risks in the XXI century too it is necessary to do and in XXII century and so on. Ideas about opposition to global risks by means of the organisation of the adherents connected by an overall aim - to provide the mankind blessing: This idea is vicious, because always when there are “we”, there are also “they”. Any organisation has the independent group dynamics directed on strengthening and a survival of this organisation. Any organisation has a competitor. In the organisation group dynamics of the herd-tribe is started,

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inducing to struggle for the power and to realise other latent purposes. Struggle of saviours of mankind among themselves is as a result possible. Privacy as a source of errors in management of risks: Researches on the safety conducted in a secret, lose possibility to receive a feedback from consumers of this information and, as a result, can contain more errors, than open sources. Certain tests and catastrophes their value for prevention of the subsequent catastrophes because these results nobody knows depreciates. Intellectual installation on the sharp criticism prevents to find out dangerous catastrophic scenarios: Supercriticality interferes with an initial phase of brain storm on which the bank of possible ideas is typed. As safety often threaten improbable coincidence of circumstances, heavy tails strange ideas can be useful. Roots of critical adjustment can be in that, for example, that criticising can apply for higher social status. An inaccuracy of idea that something it is possible to prove safety theoretically: However unique real criterion - practice. Tens years of non-failure operation - the best criterion of a reality of safety. The history knows weight of examples when devices or the projects which theoretically had high safety, fell because of unforeseen scenarios. For example, a crash of airplane “Concorde”. The American writer M.Krajton in the novel Park of the Jursky period has rapped out it following words: to conclude, that your system of safety is unreliable and cannot provide in all a case isolation of range from environment, it is not so obligatory to me to know, how it is arranged. Underestimation of the human factor: From 50 to 80 % of catastrophes occur because of errors of operators, pilots and other people exercising direct administration by system. Even more considerable share of catastrophic human errors is necessary on maintenance service, preflight preparation and errors at designing. Even the superreliable system can be resulted in a critical condition certain sequence of commands. Human is clever enough to bypass any protection against the fool and to do nonsenses. Therefore we cannot reject any of scenarios of global catastrophe, recognising that people of it will never do.

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An inaccuracy of idea that it is possible to create faultless system, repeatedly having checked up its project and an initial code: But checks bring some number of new errors, and, owing to it, at certain level the number of errors is stabilised. (This level approximately corresponds to a square of number of errors - that is if human does one error on 1000, that, how many it will not check, he will not create faultless “code”more than 1 000 000.) Statistics as a source of possible errors: In the nature of statistics there is a possibility of fulfilment of errors, intended distortions and the false interpretations, connected by that it is not the description of the unitary facts, and generalisation of set by descriptions. Statistics problems are connected, in particular, with way of the sample, different methods of calculation of an average, ways of a rounding off, interpretation of the received results and ways of their visual representation for other people. The error connected with propensity of people to measure to consider or easily accessible for facts: All know, when the nuclear bomb has fallen to Hiroshima but very few people knows, where and when the flu of 1918 the “Spaniard” for the first time is fixed, carried away in 100 times more lives. (On one of versions, on March, 8th, 1918, about Kansas City, the USA). It leads to that one risks are overestimated, and already owing to it other risks are underestimated. Yudkowsky in article about estimations of risks names it the distortion connected with degree of availability of the information. A double error: Many listed factors of sources of errors can result as in revaluation of our abilities to resist to risks, and to underestimation of risk factors. Hence, each error can be shown twice. The analysis of global risks not is creation of forecasts: The forecast contains concrete data about time and a place. But such exact hits are very rare and, more likely, are casual. Moreover, the forecast and the analysis of risks demands different reactions. Unsuccessful forecasts compromise the theme and people who give them. But some people give many forecasts, hoping, that though one will hit the mark also human will become famous. For example, the analysis of risks in aircraft demands improvement of different mechanisms of the plane, and the forecast about an air crash assumes, that people will refuse flight in the given day.

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Knowledge illusion backdating: Sometimes people speak: we knew it from the very beginning and owing to it overestimate the abilities. Owing to it they wait, that other people can easily guess that is already known to us. Concerning global risks we cannot have any knowledge backdating. And concerning many other things usual risks it is. It leads to that seems to us that global risks as are easy for estimating as risks already known to us. In other words, the effect of knowledge backdating concerning global risks leads to their underestimation. See in article about errors Yudkowsky which names this regular error hindsight bias more in detail. Effect of adjustment for information sources: Reading the literature, human can become a conductor of ideas which in it are put by the author. It allows it to a descent to reject concepts of other people. Owing to it it becomes the deaf human to the new information, and its efficiency in the analysis of risks falls. The sensation of own correctness, erudition, skills of conducting disputes - all it strengthens “deafness” of human. As global risksa question first of all theoretical (after all we do not want experimental check) theoretical disagreements tend to be shown in it especially brightly. Acceptance of small process for the beginning of the big catastrophe: For example, the dollar course change for some percent can be perceived as a harbinger of global crash of the American currency. It leads to premature statements in the spirit of: well here, we spoke! - that then when insignificance of changes is found out, undermines belief, first of all, own, in possibility of catastrophe and its prediction. More simple explanation of catastrophe substitutes more difficult: On finding-out of more difficult variant years of the analysis leave, for example, so often happens at the analysis of air crashes. (Not saying that participants aspire to garble immediately the facts if these facts mean their criminal and financial responsibility.) this more difficult explanation does not reach general public and remains as some information background. The later exact definition of causes of catastrophe will be found, the it is impossible to be protected from failure of a similar sort longer. When it is a question of fast processes, such backlog of understanding can become critical.

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Use of apocalyptic scenarios to draw attention to the projects and to achieve their financing: Really, such form of selfadvertisement is extended, and especially it is extended among representatives of a pseudo science that leads to an allergy on such statements. Even if 99,9 % of the people who are thinking out different apocalyptic scenarios, obviously are not right, hypotheses put forward by them, possibly, it is necessary to take into consideration as rates in game are too great, and unknown physical effects can threaten us and before they will be officially confirmed with a science. In other words, total expenses on check almost for certain it is less than false ideas, than a possible damage because, that at least one will appear true. Aspiration of people to establish a certain risk level comprehensible to them: Each human has a representation about norm of risk. Therefore, for example, drivers of more safe cars prefer more dangerous style of driving that smoothes as a whole effect of safety of the car. How the system was safe, human aspires to finish it to the norm of risk. As expected life expectancy of human has an order of 10 000-20 000 days, that, having established for itself norm of risk in 1 to 100 000 in day (on the intuitive representations or in the spirit of all so do), human will not strongly change the expected life expectancy. However in relation to global risks such position would mean 30 % chances of extinction the next 100 years. Thus there are separate “reckless drivers” with much higher norm of risk. Effect of “superconfidence of the young professional: It arises at drivers and pilots at a certain grade level when they cease to be afraid and start to feel, that already all can. Overestimating the abilities, they have catastrophes. The mankind as a whole, probably, is at such stage in relation to supertechnologies. Sensation of invulnerability at the survived: The superconfidence of the young professional is aggravated with effect of observant selection which consists that, for example, won certain term without wounds soldiers start to feel “invulnerability”, and more and more raises the norm of risk. Same can occur and to a civilisation - the longer threats of nuclear war are not realised, the in áîëüøåé it seems to a measure, that it in general is impossible and the more so the risky policy can be spent.

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Revaluation of own professional skills: As global risks cover all spheres of knowledge - from biology to astrophysics and from psychology to a policy, to receive an adequate picture of a situation, any expert is compelled to fall outside the limits the knowledge. As the professional to feel pleasant, human can test propensity to exaggeration of the abilities. It to consult at experts in vital issues. The stereotype of “the saviour of the world as hero-single who is capable of everything, can prevent to co-operate to it with other researchers and to make the valuable contribution. In equal to a measure and representation about an award, secretly rescuing the world, can be incorrect and entirely borrowed of entertaining cinema. The error connected with concentration on measures on prevention of small catastrophe instead of measures on prevention greatest possible: For example, in Jelloustounsky park so successfully prevented fires for many years, that in wood dry trees and as a result there was an enormous fire have accumulated many, it was almost impossible to cope which. Yudkowsky describes an example with building of dams on one river in the USA therefore it was found out, that though the quantity of flooding has decreased, the damage from each separate flooding has increased, and in the sum the annual damage has appeared above, than before building of dams. It has been connected by that after building of dams people felt calmness, and erected more expensive constructions on lower Earths, therefore, when flooding nevertheless happened, it put áîëüøèé a damage. Weariness of the researcher: The enthusiasm of separate people moves waves. Owing to it human who has, let us assume, started to let out a certain bulletin, can, having lost enthusiasm to start to let out its all less often, that from the point of view of the detached onlooker will mean decrease in intensity of events in this area. Especially work of the researcher of global risks is ungrateful - he never will see realisations of the prophecies even if they will come true. And at it never will be confidence, that it actually managed to prevent something. Only at cinema the saviour of the world gets gratitude of all mankind and love of the beautiful actress for the work. We will not forget, that Churchill on elections right after wars though he believed that has deserved re-election.

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To avoid effect, on the American fleet during the Second World War applied regular rotation of the higher structure - one change was at war, and another had a rest ashore. Yudkowsky in this occasion writes: We never heard about heroic preventive measures. Fear of loss of the social status researchers: In our society there is a number that, interest to which is perceived as a symptom of a certain sort of inferiority. People, the interested these questions, automatically are considered (or even niches ) second-grade, mad, by clowns and squeezed out in corresponding ecologically. And other researchers even can aspire to avoid contact to such people and reading of their researches. Themes of UFO, telepathy and other are subjected parapsychology, doubt in a world reality. However it is important to notice, that if at least one message on UFO truly and is inexplicable, it demands alteration of all available picture of the world, and should influence safety issues (And military men accept these messages much more seriously, than scientists). Moreover, those researchers who have lost the status, having shown interest to UFO, etc., have lost together with it and possibility to inform the thoughts to representatives of the power. Military researches in this area are so coded, that is not known, whether there are such researches in general, and accordingly, in what measure it is possible to trust the people speaking on behalf of these researches. In other words, privacy so a certain research organisation, that it ceases to exist for an external world as a black hole which does not let out the beams - especially in the event that the top management of the country knows nothing about it. (The example with German chancellor A.Merkel to which refused to explain is characteristic, that for people go on residence while she it categorically has not demanded are there were employees of security service.) The quantity of the attention, which society can give to risks, certainly: Therefore exaggeration of some risks not less dangerously, than concealing about others as eats that quantity of attention (and resources) which can be spent for the analysis of more dangerous risks. Besides, it creates false calmness at human to whom it seems, that it has made the sufficient contribution to rescue of the Earth, for example, having filled the car spirit.

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Neglect economy: Such expressions as money is only pieces of paper, or bank contributions are only zeroes in computers can be reflexion of widespread opinion, that the economy not so is important, as, say, war or certain more entertainment catastrophes. However the economy is a material embodiment all human activity. For understanding of a role of economy it is important to notice, that crisis of 1929 has put the USA a damage in 2 times, than the Second World War, and crash of the USSR has occurred not as a result of direct aggression, and result structurally-economic crisis. Even and others large extinction biologists connect extinction of dinosaurs not with space catastrophe, and with change of conditions of a competition between kinds. All risks have cost expression. Economic consequences even small catastrophes can have huge cost expression. Acts of terrorism have caused on September, 11th a damage to the American economy in 100 billion dollars, and is possible, the damage will be much more if to consider potential losses from a policy of decrease in interest rates (a bubble in the real estate market), and also billions the dollars, spent for war in Iraq. Thus the price of the destroyed buildings made only a few billions dollars. 7 letters with the Antraxhave caused a damage in 1 billion dollars. So, even small failures we can lead to a huge damage and loss of stability of economy, and economy crash will make system less steady and more vulnerable to even big catastrophes. It can lead to a positive feedback, that is to self-amplifying catastrophic process. In process of economy globalisation, possibility of global system crisis more and more increases. It is final, difficult to believe, that the world will be lost that some large banks have gone bankrupt, but it can that will start a domino effect of the general instability. The errors connected with revaluation or underestimation of value of a moral condition of a society and its elite: One of versions of wreck of Roman empire - degradation of its elite, consisting that people from whom governors of all levels, operated exclusively in humanal short-term interests, in other words, silly and selfishly (that can be connected that they used water from a waterpipe with the lead pipes, negatively influencing a brain). Thus it is supposed, that effective action in the long-term interests

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coincides with interests of a society as a whole, that, generally speaking, not undoubtedly. Other metaphor is comparison of “moral spirit, for example, armies - with ability of molecules there is nobody substance to turn to a uniform crystal (in detail on this theme Lev Tolstoi in “War and peace” argued). On the other hand, ancient Romans complained of degradation of morals still, and till now this process has not prevented development of industrial forces of a society. The error root here can be in the conflict of generations, namely that skilled and old estimate young and cocky, not bringing the age amendment and forgetting, that were same. However in case of modern global risks the huge damage can be put small group, say, terrorists who within the limits of the strategy operate and is effective. Or the conflict of two societies, each of which in itself advances certain positive ideals. And the conflict can be round exact definitions of these ideals, for example, that better: democracy or religion? At last, even human can destroy the world by mistake. While low moral human will be safe, as will while away the term in prison for small theft, and never will receive access to highly dangerous technologies. The error connected by that together to investigate the validity or there is nobody messages on risk, human aspires to prove this idea as it is possible for number of people: One ideas to prove easier, than others. It leads to shift in an estimation of probabilities. Judkovsky writes about it in connection with the regular error connected with degree of availability of the information. The a certain idea is more obvious, the it is easier to transform its bright propaganda film. For example, it is easier to advertise threat from global warming, than from the Artificial intellect because last is hidden. Besides, human can be involved in process ideas to weights that leads to an identification with this idea, to aspiration to make than it is easier and more accessible. Propensity of people to offer “simple” and “obvious” decisions in difficult situations - not having thought: And then to persist, protecting them and selecting under them the argument. It is very difficult to human to “change the mind”. Here it is possible to recollect Murphy’s law: Any challenge has the simple, obvious and wrong decision. Yudkowsky in detail writes about

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importance of that small time interval between the moment of appearance of a question and that moment when human has made a definitive choice in favour of one of answers during which, actually, and there is a thinking. It is psychologically difficult to people to change the mind, because it as though means to recognise itself silly and capable to be mistaken, and it is especially difficult to change the mind, if the position is already announced and became a dispute subject. Public discussion about risks of different researches can lead to that scientists will hide possible risks that their projects have not closed: Yudkowsky writes about this problem, fairly recognising, that does not see its any decision: And if the authorities enter the law on which even the smallest risk to mankind existence is sufficient to close the project; or if becomes norm de facto politicians, that any possible calculation cannot move cargo once the come out assumption then any scientist will not risk more to come out with assumptions. The error connected with wrong correlation of force and safety : Emotionally it seems to us, that technologies share on good, that is strong both safe, and bad - that is weak and dangerous. However, actually, than more strongly a certain tool, the more it is capable to influence the world, - that it is more dangerous, the it is more than ways to direct it on the destruction purpose. The analysis based on the insufficient information, is inclined to estimate technologies emotionally therefore the information on advantages tends to soften perceived risk, - writes Yudkowsky. Clearly as, that new technologies are stronger than old technologiesdifferently would not be to create commercial sense them. Premature investments: If in the middle of XIX century people would understand, that in the XX-th century it are threatened with the nuclear weapon, and millions there are no doubts would be allocated for prevention of this risk, that this money would be spent not to destination, and at the future generations the allergy on such projects would be developed. A possible example: according to some information, the USSR in 80th years has received misinformation that the USA in all develop pilotless flying machines, and has developed the huge program in which result there were such devices as “Bee” - automatic scout planes in

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weight about ton, huge cost and small reliability. As a result the Russian military men were disappointed in äðîíàõ by that moment when in the USA the program of their real creation has been accepted. Other example: till 1939 it was absurd to struggle against the nuclear weapon, and after - already late. Propensity of people to mix that expectation, probable and best outcomes: The reality as it has appeared, frequently presents results, the worst, than the most worst expected outcome, - writes Yudkowsky, describing in article experiment with students where them asked to estimate the most probable and worst time of delivery of degree work. As a result average time of delivery of degree work has appeared worse, than the worst case. Even the clear prevention that people can make such estimation has not led to that examinees have correctly corrected the expectations. Even we though has translated this article and well knew about necessity of the amendment, have all the same fallen a victim of this error, estimating expected terms of an exit of the given book in the press. Namely, we have made the assumption of when this book leaves, and then, having recollected that the reality will be worse than my expectations, we have added to this term three months. Already it is now obvious, that we have underestimated the necessary amendment, and the book leaves even later. Apathy of the passer-by: Global risks are not someone’s humanal responsibility, and it is seductive to argue in the sense that time anybody does nothing in this connection why we should? Moreover, this condition arises unconsciously, is simple as a reflex of imitation group. A typical example: when human lays on sidewalk and by there is a crowd, nobody helps it. But if one human on a footpath in wood sees the laying human, it, most likely, will help it. Yudkowsky allocates this model as the important factor of possible underestimation of global risks. Requirement for end: The concept the psychology, designating aspiration of human as soon as possible to find the answer to disturbing question (need for closure - as it names). This aspiration leads to that human prefers the fast and incorrect decision to longer search of a right answer. And though we cannot search for correct strategy of work with global risks infinitely long - we are limited in time! - we should think well before coming to any conclusions.

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Influence of authority and social pressure of group: This question is in detail considered in the book human and a situation. In particular, well-known experiments where examinees forced to beat the increasing current of other “examinees” (actually stool pigeons, and what current actually did not move) that those “studied”, and examinees reached mortally dangerous pressure in 400 volt in spite of the fact that “victim” begged them to stop. Thus, though the majority of people is assured, that they would not began to do it, in real experiences it was done by 66 % of examinees. As the reasons of such behaviour authority influence, remoteness of a victim and influence of similar behaviour of group was revealed. It is obvious, that the same factors can operate on us when we estimate the risk connected with some factor or technology. If potential its victim are from us far in time and in space if near to us the highly authoritative human expresses in favour of this technology, and also if we are surrounded by group of the people, the holding opposite opinion, all it will influence our choice. Rupture between survey and dot researches, between a tree and wood: Survey researches can offer system scenarios of global catastrophe or discuss consequences of some new discovery, but cannot tell, how make something dangerous. On the contrary, applied researches can state an exact estimation of risks, say, a separate asteroid, but not a total estimation of risks from all reasons. This rupture is swept brightly up in area nanotechnologyé. There is a level of survey design researches where the attention to that is possible first of all is paid and it is necessary to make, that is there is a movement from the declared purpose to different variants of its embodiment. Also there is a level of concrete researches of properties of separate materials. From the point of view of representatives of the first direction behind a tree do not see wood, from the point of view - the first are engaged in superficiality and a fantasy. And both charges can be partly fair. The error connected with an intellectual projection: This error arises, when we attribute to subjects possession properties which actually exist only in our representations about them. An example of such inaccuracy a reasoning like: AI will be kind, therefore it cannot kill me. Whereas kindness is not property of

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AI, and our estimation of its action in relation to us, and a causal relationship here return - we name AI “kind” because it does not kill us. Yudkowsky it defines so: It is a special case of deep, confusing and extremely widespread error, which E. T. Jaynes named an inaccuracy connected with an intellectual projection (mind projection fallacy). Jaynes, the expert on áàéåñîâñêîé reliability theories, has defined an inaccuracy connected with an intellectual projection as the error connected by that knowledge conditions are mixed with properties of objects. For example, the phrase means a mystical phenomenon, that is a property of the phenomenon - but if we rather nobody a phenomenon it is the fact about my condition of consciousness, instead of about the phenomenon.) Representation what to change circumstances follows, destroying their reasons: However the match from which the fire has lighted up, has already gone out. The aspiration to destroy any system, from the state to cockroaches and microorganisms, leads to that this system is optimised for struggle, becomes stronger. And the one who with it struggles, is compelled to get qualities of the enemy to operate with it on one territory. Oblivion of main principle of medicine - do not do much harm! : Other formulation of this principle: When you do not know what to do, - do not do anything. Behind it there is a century experience which says, that rash actions will harm more likely, than will help. Concerning global catastrophes it has that sense, that the attempts hasty prevent them we can to aggravate them. Mess between objective and subjective enemies: When somebody pursues the aims, stirring to my purposes, it my enemy objectively (a tiger who wishes to eat a goat; the opponent in game in chess; the competitor in business). However between people the enemy is the one who aspires to destroy humanally me. This concept is fastened on blood feud. The mess consists that objective enemies start to seem subjective. For example, if to rise before rushing train and to tell, that the train wishes me to destroy. However between people happens also real situations of “subjective” enmity when one wishes to destroy another, not having any others behind it of the purposes. With reference to global risks it means, that people who can destroy the world, will not be humanally malicious to me at all or to look as a fiend. It

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can be fair, noble, beautiful people who will make certain very small and unevident mistake. Predictions or dreams of the catastrophe, actually caused by envy: The vivid example of it is set of forums on the Internet where the people offended by disintegration of the USSR, dream to see crash of the USA and try to discover signs of this process. (But it does not mean, that in the American economy there are no problems.) one of variants of when not realised desires can influence the validity description. Fear of loss of identity: The system does not wish to be transformed deeply as then it will be any more it. It is one of the reasons of struggle against globalisation. Somebody can prefer death to identity loss. That is to prefer global catastrophe of transformation of that world in which he lives. Clear catastrophe can be more attractive than not clear future: As a whole global catastrophe to present easier, than the future, with certain yet not open technologies. (That is here operates the distortion connected with availability of the information.) not clear can cause fear. Wrong application of a philosophical rule “razor Okkama”: We should not cut difficult hypotheses on the basis of razor Okkama. Razor Okkama can be considered through a prism logicians. Then the hypothesis demanding number of independent assumptions, appears less probable. For example, the hypothesis which is based on 10 independent assumptions, will have only 1 to 1024 chance of the validity. However and it it is not not enough, if it is a question of a hypothesis which means risk of extinction of mankind! The top border of possible catastrophe is formed on the basis of last experience: Here that writes Yudkowsky in connection with already mentioned dams: recently gone through flooding, apparently, establish border of losses since which owners believe that should be disturbed …. When dams and embankments are constructed, they reduce frequency of flooding, such in the image, probably, creating the false feeling of safety conducting to reduction of precaution. While building of dams reduces frequency of flooding, the damage from each flooding so increases, that the

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mid-annual damage increases. It seems, that people do not extrapolate from the gone through small dangers on possibility of more serious risks; on the contrary, last experience of small dangers establishes felt top border for risks. The error connected with incorrect carrying over of laws of one system on another growth of complexity of structure as the factor reducing reliability of system. If from a plant it is possible to cut off the most part, not having damaged its ability to highgrade restoration, to kill an animal, it is enough to remove very small slice of an organism. That is, the more difficult the system, the is more in it than vulnerable points. It is necessary to notice, that, in process of increase of processes of globalisation, connectivity and a terrestrial civilisation grows. Decrease in reliability of system of proportionally fourth degree of density of energy. This empirical generalisation (exact value of a sedate indicator can differ depending on different factors) it is possible to find out, comparing reliability of planes and rockets: at the equal sizes, quantity and expenses reliability of rockets approximately in ten millions times is less - appreciably because energy density in engines several times more, and of some other factors. Similar empirical generalisation is true and for statistics of deadly failures of cars depending on speed. It is necessary to notice, that installed power per employee of mankind constantly grows. An ambiguity and a polysemy of any statement as a source of a possible error: From the point of view of authors of regulations of works on the Chernobyl reactor humannel has broken their requirements, and from the point of view of humannel using these regulations, it operated precisely according to its requirements. The regulations demanded to muffle a reactor - but developers considered, that it should be made immediately, and operators - that gradually. Other variant - when automatic system of rescue and the pilot can make a set of actions, each of which separately would rescue the plane, but together they are imposed against each other and lead to catastrophe ( destruction À310 in 1994 in Siberia). It is difficult to reach unequivocal understanding of terms when we do not have experimental experience as in a case with global catastrophes.

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Refusal to consider a certain scenario because of its “incredibility” : However the majority of catastrophes happen as a result improbable coincidence of circumstances. The destruction of “Titanic” is connected with exotic, it is possible to tell, a combination of 24 (!) circumstances. Transition from a deceit to self-deception: The conscious deceit of other people for the purpose of reception of certain benefit, in our context - concealments of risks - can imperceptibly take the form of self-hypnosis. The self-deception can be much steadier, than illusion or inadvertent error. One more variant of such dangerous self-hypnosis - a command to myself we will think of it tomorrow (but tomorrow never comes). Revaluation of own possibilities in general and survival rate in particular: We will simply illustrate it with the citation from article Bostromà about threats to existence: Empirical data about biases in an estimation of risks are ambiguous. It is proved, that we suffer from regular biases when we estimate our own prospects of risks as a whole. Some data show, that people can overestimate own abilities and prospects. Three quarters of all motorists think, that they accurater drivers, than the average driver. According to one research, almost half of sociologists believes that they belong to the best to ten scientists in the area, and 94 % of sociologists think, that they it is better in the work, than their colleagues on the average. Also it has been shown, that people being in depression have more exact predictions, than normal people, except for those predictions which concern hopelessness of their situation. The majority of people thinks, that they with smaller probability are subject to usual risks, than other people. Widespread belief, that public is inclined to overestimate probabilities of risks often shined in the press (such, as catastrophes of planes, murders, poisonings with meal etc.), and recent research shows, that public overestimates a considerable quantity of widespread risks to health concerning itself. Other recent research, however, assumes, that the accessible information will be co-ordinated with the assumption, that public rationally estimates risk (though and with some narrowing because of the expense of cogitative efforts on deduction in mind of the exact information).

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Aspiration to the fine future, covering perception of risks: This phenomenon can be noticed at revolutionaries. Experience of Great French revolution quite could learn, that revolution conducts to civil war, dictatorship and external wars, however Russian revolutionaries of the beginning of the XX-th century fed the same illusions, as their French colleagues 120 years prior to them though, finally, have received similar result. And modern supporters of radical development of technologies have a bias of the same sort - that is belief that new technologies will not result to new types of weapon, to its application, and new technological catastrophes. Psychologically it is connected by that human rejects reflexions about risks as obstacles in a way to the light future. The filters, information stirring to receipt to a management: The information exists not in vacuum, and in concrete system. Value of the information is defined by its novelty and total ability of system to react to it. Therefore it is important to investigate not only statements about global risks, but also how they can extend in a society. G.G.Malinetsky in the book Risk. A sustainable development. The synergetrics writes: One more feature of the information in the conditions of appearance consists that data arriving in a control system pass through a number of filters. The first of them are methods of studying used in a control system and the environment analysis by means of which realisation the entrance information, before to arrive to a management, is eliminated. This filter, as a rule, is adjusted on the past and the present, instead of on possible extreme changes of a situation in the future. The second filter is psychological which essence consists in aversion a management of the information owing to its strategic novelty. The third filter on a way of the arriving information is formed by supervising hierarchy. The new information cannot influence formation of reaction to changes, if heads do not possess the sufficient power officially to recognise an urgency of this information. The fourth filter is connected by that last years the information is considered as the valuable strategic goods of which it is necessary to make thrifty use and not to transfer it under the first requirement.

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We will underline, that in the conditions of any delays in transfer of the initial information not only are immoral. Curiosity can appear more strongly fear of death: At all any information on global risks is useful. For example, if we make a certain dangerous experiment and as a result we will survive, we learn, that this type of experiments is safe. But whether there is this knowledge of that risk to which we have subjected ourselves? Nevertheless, people can risk a life for the sake of knowledge or experiences. It is possible to recollect, that were a victim in crowd curious, observing storm of the white house in 93 year. And, we am assured, to many people it is curious, what “doomsday” will be. Someone can agree on dangerous experiments for the sake of curiosity. System and the regulations: Global catastrophe, as well as any usual technogenic failure, can be not result of any one fatal error, and a consequence of casual fatal coincidence of ten insignificant errors. For smooth functioning of system it is necessary to allow to break regulations on trifles. And during any moment these infringements develop in the suitable image - not extinguished stub, the open tank, the simplified scheme of start - and lead to formation of a chain of events, the leader to catastrophe. There is a following further: we had to take part in investigations (or to study materials) catastrophes and failures in the industry (not nuclear). By their results we for myself have drawn the following conclusion: practically never there are any “unique main” reasons and accordingly “the main thing guilty” (I mean not official conclusions of the commissions, and the actual party of business). As a rule, there is that we for myself conditionally name. All these small sloppiness are made at all on a kind for many years successively and since separately each of them is not capable to lead to heavy consequences owing to it the attention to them does not address. But when all of them occur during one time, in one place and with one people is leads to tragical result. Well and when incident has a public resonance - then usually and appoint the main switchman by a principle: “who has not hidden, we am not guilty”. Effect of “switchman”: Instead of search of original causes of catastrophe search for the switchman therefore the original

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reasons are not eliminated, and it becomes possible once again. Concerning global catastrophe this can have that sense, that instead of finding out and eliminating the laws conducting to it, struggle against private displays will be conducted. The laws conducting to global catastrophe, technical progress, basic impossibility of experimental check, superconfidence of people etc. are., whereas distribution of a genetic code of one taken virus - to private displays of these laws. The minimum perceived risk: There is a minimum perceived risk, that is if the probability of event nobody a threshold less, human perceives it as zero. The assumption has been put forward, that it is caused by that human makes of the decision, proceeding not from real probabilities, possible variants of events pi, and from the representations about them f (pi). For example, a number of experiments shows, that human does not perceive probability less than 10-5, despite very big possible damage. We above explained it recognising that such risk level is imperceptible against daily risk to which human is exposed. New ideas: People and scientists often reject new ideas as it would mean to recognise own wrongfulness. Dynamics of such process is depicted Êóíîì in its theory of scientific revolutions, and, unfortunately, discussions about new ideas are often painted by the same models of behaviour, as struggle for the power in flight of monkeys. Often preventions of new risks have not quite proved character. An example such, costing millions lives - long ideas of Hungarian doctor Ignatsa Phillip Zemmelvejsa (1818-1865) which asserted, that the maternity fever is connected by that doctors do not wash a hand after discovery of corpses. Influence of emotional reaction of a shock: It is known, that catastrophes provoke certain sequence of psychological experiences, each of which influences objectivity of accepted decisions. In the book Psychogeniuses in extreme conditions it is told: … psychological reactions at catastrophes are subdivided into four phases: heroism, a honeymoon , disappointment and restoration thus the period of negation, a panic or a paralysis during the first instants can precede a heroism phase. Each of these stages creates the kind of bias. If global catastrophe it will be so awful that will cause reaction of negation

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in the spirit of begins cannot be, it is any error etc. For example, video shots about act of terrorism have apprehended on September, 11th many as shots from a new Hollywood film. Then there is a stage of superreaction which can create new dangers because of precipitate behaviour. For example, the pilots, taken off to patrol on September, 11th the sky over New York, have been assured, that war with Russian has begun. In the same spirit there was also a statement of the president Bush that we declare war this very day. Then at a stage of euphoria the feeling of danger becomes dull, though actually the dangerous situation yet has not ended. The despondency, on the contrary, is connected not with reduction of an estimation of risk, and with reduction of motivation with it to struggle, probably, connected with scales of losses and inevitability comprehension. Acceptance leads to that catastrophes is forgotten, and the risk is taken for granted. That is at this stage there is also a reduction of an estimation risks, and motivation reduction on its overcoming. Such description concerns experience of catastrophes which have begun and have ended, like Earthquakes, and clinic of a sharp grief at death of relatives. However global catastrophe does not concern such events - more likely if its approach manages to be noticed, it will look as more and more accruing terrible process. Thus important that emotions influences behaviour of people irrespective of, they want it, or not even if they know about this influence, and wish it to avoid. Advertising action is based on it. Besides, if global catastrophe, for example, general epidemic at almost everyone there will be the close people who are dying as a result of it or being in a zone of raised risk begins. In the Hollywood films it is represented usually in that spirit, that the protagonist has time to rescue also the country, and to liberate the beloved from blockages. But on that it and the fairy tale, that so will not be. All people, both making decisions, and executors, in case of global catastrophe will think not only of destinies of a planet, but also about rescue close (and also the countries, native cities and others îáùíîñòåé with which they are connected), and owing to it their choice. Even if they will make decision to offer the relatives and entirely to concentrate on catastrophe prevention,

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the emotional stress from such decision will harm to their objectivity and working capacity. Actually, they will be in a condition of a sharp grief or a shock. G.G.Malinetsky writes: a Number of experts in risk psychology consider, that a share of the heads capable adequately to operate in the conditions of ×Ñ, does not exceed 0,5 %. Problems of selection of experts: As on each separate question we are compelled to rely on opinion of the most competent people in this area, the effective way of selection of such people - or their books is necessary to us. Techniques of selection of experts are usually that: first, their regalia - a citing index, scientific ranks, posts etc. matter. Secondly, it is possible to believe on number of the come true forecasts to define probability of their correctness. The third way consists in to trusting anybody, and to recheck most all another’s calculations. At last, it is possible to select people on that, how much they share your belief - whether they trust in Singularity, Peak, liberal model of economy etc. - it is obvious, that in this case we do not learn anything new, besides, as so it was meant by our selection. And it is obvious, that all the ways long selection of experts contain the reefs. For example, concerning global catastrophes there can not be come true forecasts. Fault and responsibility as factors of prevention of risks: Our mind can to try define the one who exactly is guilty in this or that catastrophe. The fault leans against concepts of a free will, responsibility and the subsequent punishment. However in case of global catastrophe it loses any sense as there will be no neither investigations, nor a punishment, neither advantage of this punishment, nor fear of punishment. On the other hand, concentration on search of the guilty distracts from vision of a complete picture of catastrophe. Actually, we think, that if we will define guilty and we will replace them with more effective executors following time of catastrophe will not be, and to all slovens there will be a good lesson and discipline on manufacture will raise. Obviously, however, that punishment of the guilty is useless, when it is a question of global catastrophes. Probably, it was meaningful to judge winners - that is people who have admitted a certain global risk even if catastrophes as a result have not occurred. It is thus important to enhance the responsibility people for world preservation in which they live.

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Underestimation of forces of inertia as factor of stability of systems: Besides the general reasons about complexity and the feedback mechanisms doing system steady, it is possible to use Gott’s formula (indirect ways of an estimation of risks see the head) for an estimation of future time of existence of system, proceeding from last time of its existence. She allows to express that fact, that if, for example, the bus was not about an hour it is improbable, that it will come the next minute. That is last time of existence of system creates, so to say, time inertia. When it appears, that a certain system is steadier, than it seemed to us, proceeding from our theories, we start to doubt our theories which can be as a matter of fact correct, but be mistaken in dating of events. Thus, stability underestimation conducts to underestimation of risks. The opinions caused by outlook: The error essence consists in the assumption volume that there are the true statements which have been not caused by outlook. All discussions about risks of global catastrophe occur on a platform of certain scientific, cultural and historical outlook which is so obvious to us that seems transparent and is imperceptible. However it is possible, that the representative of other culture and religion will argue essentially in another way and bias of our reasonings also will be obvious to it. Struggle for a scientific priority: For example, concerning global warming there are some the different terms which have been put forward by different authors on purpose to fix the priority on this concept: planetary catastrophe at It is scarlet. Mountain, greenhouse catastrophe at A.V.Karnauhova, runaway global warming in other foreign literature. It leads to that search in one of synonyms does not give out results on another. Besides, it is important to note those difficulties, which are tested by a science with the certificate of unique events, which had final number of observers (in the spirit of the decision of the French academy of sciences that stones from the sky cannot fall.) The error connected with conscious and unconscious unwillingness of people to recognise the fault and scale of catastrophe: And following from this wrong informing of the heads on a situation. Conscious - when, for example, military men

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hide a certain failure that them have not punished, wishing will consult by own strength. When people do not cause firemen, extinguishing a fire until it does not become too extensive. Unconscious - when people trust in that description which reduces scale of failure and their fault. In the organizer of tests of woodpeckers believed, that the reactor, and a tank with cooling water has blown up not - and continued to submit commands on a nonexistent reactor. Possibly, such unwillingness can operate and forward in time, forcing people not to take up responsibility for the future global catastrophes. The regular error connected: It consists that people attribute to themselves áîëüøåå influence on results of collective actions, than actually. Sometimes people exaggerate negative influence. According to Michael Anisimov, for this reason people exaggerate value of own death and underestimate death of all civilisation. The regular error arising in connection with presence or absence of the obvious reason of events: People can concern more tolerantly the events occurring naturally (for example, death from an old age), than to the events having the obvious reason (death from illness), and especially - to the events connected with malice aforethought (murder). In a case with global risks at the moment there is no object or human whom we could accuse that the human civilisation will die out. Michael Anisimov writes: As on horizon it is not visible the bad guy that with it to struggle, people do not test such enthusiasm which they, for example, tested, we protest against Bush. Dependence of reaction on speed of change of size: Human can react more strongly to suddenly arisen threats, than on threats of the same force, but developed gradually. It is scarlet Mountains in the film about global warming results as an example experience with a frog. If a frog to throw in hot water, it there and then will jump out but if to place it in a vessel with cold water and to heat up, it will sit in it, not to cook yet. In the same way and inhabitants of Easter island so slowly reduced trees, that for each generation the problem was not appreciable.

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6 Reasonings on Global Risks The first concerns likelihood process, for example, to radioactive disintegration, and the second to unknown process for example, to card guessing. However global risks concern the phenomena, estimating which we are compelled to state likelihood judgements about processes, which simultaneously both likelihood, and unknown humans. Here we start to speak about degree of confidence of this or that probability. In this case the probability and confidence degree are multiplied. For example, reasonings like terrorists never will want to use the bacteriological weapon because it will put blow and on they protect what interests. The structure of the purposes can be is very difficult or to comprise errors simply. This statement works only in the event that we unitary observed something during the casual moment of time and probability is in that case described by formula Ãîòòà. It gives chance of end for any event in 50 percent in an interval from 1/ 3T to 3T, where T - age of object at the moment of its casual detection. However if we very long observe a certain process it evidently, comes nearer to the end. For example, if we take the casual human it, most likely, will be middle age. However if to take the casual human and then very long to observe, we will unequivocally receive the very old man who can die at any moment. The thinking caused by desire something to prove : Depending on that human wishes to prove, it will select those or other arguments, is frequent. Other name for this model “rationalisation”, that is selection of pseudo-rational arguments under certain initially irrational statement.

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The logic error arising at attempts to prove that it is necessary to do, proceeding only from the description of the facts: If in the first and second parcel of conclusion the facts and in a conclusion there can be only facts contain only. Any reasoning on the purposes should lean against certain representations about the values, set is axiomatic. However it means randomness of such purposes, and their understanding can differ at different researchers of global risks that can conduct to different definitions of catastrophe and representations that will be from it an exit. Besides, any system of axioms allows to formulate indemonstrable statements, and concerning obligations it is easy to be convinced of it: almost any system of base values easily allows to create in itself contradictions that is the basic maintenance of many literary works where the hero a choice between, let us assume, love to a family and to the native land (should make that else the existential choice is called). It is not known, whether the consistent system of values as it will look is possible in general, and whether will be applicable in practice. However work on consistent system of values is important, as it will need to be enclosed in the future cars possessing an artificial intellect. The errors connected with substitution of the analysis of risks by the analysis of those commercial motives who speaks about them: It is possible to argue as follows: if human investigates risks free of charge it the unemployed and if he wishes to receive for it money it parasitizes on public fears if it its direct official duties, to trust it is impossible because it the agent of the state and powders brains to the population. From here it is visible, that the direct communication between money and the analysis of risks is not present, though in some cases it is possible. The explanation through simplification is calledand allows to explain everything, everything. Use so-called authoritative knowledge: The authoritative knowledge was the basic source of data on the world in the Middle Ages when for true searched in Aristotle’s works; have then invented an empirical method. References to opinions of great people should not form the sufficient basis to recognise something safe. Only regularly repeated calculations can specify in it.

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Wrong application of idea that the theory should be considered true, only if it is proved: If to consider a scientific method, as a way of reception of the most authentic knowledge this methodology is true. However from the point of view of safety maintenance the opposite approach is necessary: a certain assumption should be considered dangerous until it is not denied. For example, the new model of the plane is considered dangerous, until then will not be proved yet, by theoretical calculations and test flights in all modes, that it is safe; the same principle underlies clinical testing of new medicines. Not clearly the same as to apply a principle concerning theories about those or other global catastrophes. Perception of the new information through a prism of the old: In the course of perception human only a part of the information a beret from an external world, and the rest completes on the basis of the memory, expectations and associations. Alas, the same is true and for texts, including on global risks. Reading to the review of different people of the same text, it is not difficult to be convinced, that they have apprehended it absolutely differently. Hardly it is connected by that one people were essentially cleverer than others - more likely, that they applied different filters of perception. Moreover, if human has started to adhere to a certain point of view he subscribes for those editions and chooses those articles which confirm it. Thus, at it illusion is created, that the statistics on the data confirming its point of view, grows. It even more strengthens both its filter, and its confidence of these data. An error in a choice of a neutral position: Each human understands in due course, that it is not quite objective, and its point of view has some tendentiousness. To compensate this deviation, he can choose a certain neutral source of the information. The error consists that the people adhering to opposite sights, will choose different neutral points, each of which will be closer to a position of the one who has chosen it. We described a similar error above when resulted results of experiences in which examinees have been warned about a possible error and did on it the amendment - and, nevertheless, all the same underestimated. Possibly, it was necessary to give the amendment not only to key parametre, but also to the amendment.

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Confidence as a source of errors: The more human doubts the point of view, the is more often it changes it under the influence of the new facts, and the it is more than chances, that it will get to more authentic knowledge. If human is too assured of the opinion, it is difficult to it to change it. If it too does not come nearer to true, and goes on a circle. Use completely the erroneous logic: Alas, the situation when human in the reasonings makes mistakes in each line is possible. In this case it could not find the errors even if would like. It can be or one repeating regular error, or such density of different errors which does impossible a faultless reasoning. Even we now do not know for certain, whether we do any regular logic errors at the moment. It can occur more often, than we think- the analysis of scientific texts has shown, that usually people use the reduced conclusions and heuristics receptions - and do not realise it. Prescience and pseudo science mixture: While the hypothesis is in process of a formulation, it yet has not acquired all scientific device and is, more likely, a product of brain storm on a certain theme, probably, carried out collectively by an exchange of opinions in printing editions. And during this moment it is a prescience - however it is aimed at becoming a science part, that is to pass corresponding selection and to be accepted or rejected. The pseudo science can simulate all attributes of scientific character - ranks, references, a mathematical apparatus, - nevertheless, its purpose - not search of authentic knowledge, and visibility of reliability. All statements about global risks are hypotheses which we almost never can check up. However we should not reject them on early phases of maturing. In other words, the phase of brain storm and a phase of critical elimination should not mix up - though both should be present. The error connected with wrong definition of the status : The reality problem (that is generalisations) was the basic in medieval philosophy, and it consisted in a question, what objects actually really exists. Whether there are, for example, birds in general, or there are only separate copies of birds, and all kinds, sorts and families of birds - no more than a conditional invention of human reason? One of possible answers is that objectively there is our ability to distinguish birds and not-birds. Moreover, each

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bird too possesses this quality, and owing to it exist objectively. In reasonings on risks the ambiguity apropos creeps as follows: properties of one object are transferred on a certain class as though this class was object. Then there are reasonings like America wants … or it is peculiar to Russian … whereas behind these concepts there is not a uniform object, and the set, which exact definition depends on the observer. Any discussions about the politician are poisoned by such shift. Arguing on an artificial intellect it is easy to make such mistake as it is not clear, whether there is a speech about one device or about a class of objects. Statements about possibility something and impossibility: The statement about impossibility is much stronger, for enough one object concerns all set of potential objects, and for the validity of the statement about possibility. Therefore statements about impossibility something are false much more often. Assuming any event or coincidence of circumstances impossible, we cause a damage of our safety. In certain circumstances probably all. Thus any discussions about the future catastrophes is always discussions about possibilities. Evidence as a source of errors: The correct conclusion always leans on two parcels, two true judgements. However the analysis of texts shows, that people very seldom use the full form of conclusions, and instead use reduced where only one parcel obviously is called, and another is meant by default. Are held back usually evidence - the judgements, seeming so true and doubtless, that there is need no them to sound. Moreover, it is frequent they are so obvious, that are not realised. It is clear, that such state of affairs is the reason of numerous errors because evidence - not necessarily validity, and that is obvious to one, is not obvious to another. Underestimation of own inaccuracy : As well as any human, we is inclined to be mistaken, that is connected as with the basic unreliability of a human brain connected with the likelihood nature of its work, and with incompleteness of my knowledge of the world and skills of elimination of errors. we can know nothing on 100 % because reliability of my brain is not equal 100 %. we can check up reliability, having solved a series of logic problems average complexities, and then having counted quantity of errors.

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However usually it does not become, and own inaccuracy is estimated intuitively. Precisely also human usually does not measure a characteristic inaccuracy of the judgements about the future though it probably to make experimentally: for example, to write the forecast of the and public life for year or five years and then to compare. The error connected with representation that each event has one reason Actually: There are absolutely casual events. Each event has many reasons (the glass has fallen because it have put with edge because it is made of glass because force of gravitation it is great because a floor firm because the cat disobedient because it should happen sooner or later). Each reason has the reason therefore we have dispersing in last tree of the reasons. Human mind is incapable entirely this tree of the reasons to capture and is compelled to simplify. But the concept “reason” is necessary in a society because it is connected with fault, punishment and a free will. That is here under “causal” acceptance by the free made human of the decision on crime fulfilment means. There is no need to speak about that, how many here the unevident moments. (The basic question: Who is guilty?) And in technics designing: where it is important to find a cause of catastrophe. That is that it is possible to eliminate - so that failures such any more were not. (The basic question: What to do?) The concept the reason less all is applicable to the analysis of the difficult unique phenomena, such as human behaviour and history. The example to that is weight of the confused discussions about those reasons or other historical events. For this reason reasonings in a sort the reason of global catastrophe will be Õ to put it mildly, are imperfect. Necessity of a choice on the basis of belief : If the head receives some the conclusions contradicting each other about safety it makes a choice between them, simply trusting in one of them - for the reasons which have been not connected with the logic. Here too it is possible to recollect the term an existential choice when human should make a choice in a non-formalizable situation. For example, between love and a debt.

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Effect of first and last read book: The order of receipt of the information influences its estimation, and are allocated first and last source. It is one of forms of the inaccuracy connected with availability of the information. Exaggeration of a role of computer modelling: Most two worked models - meteorology and nuclear explosions. Both are made on a huge actual material, with the account of hundreds tests which made amendments to forecasts, and both regularly gave errors. Even the most exact model remains model. Therefore we cannot strongly rely on computer modelling of unique events to what global catastrophe concerns. The proof by analogy as a source of possible errors : Business not only that there can not be analogies to the unique event, which else never happened - to irreversible global catastrophe, but also that we do not know how to draw such analogies. In any case, analogy can illustrate only. Possibly, it is useful to accept analogies when they speak about a reality of a certain threat, but not whenabout safety. The error connected with discrepancy of extrapolation exponentialîé of likelihood function by means of the linear: Likelihood function of destruction of a civilisation - if to consider it process smooth in sense of probability, that is, of course, incorrect - it is possible to assimilate functions of disintegration of radioactive atom which, as is known, is described. For example, if the probability of destruction of a civilisation during the XXI century is equal 50 % as it is assumed by sir Martin Rees in the book Our last hour in 200 years the chance of a survival of a civilisation will be 25 %, and through one thousand years - only 0,1 % - at uniform preservation of the same tendencies. From here it is visible, that it is incorrect to conclude, that time chances of a survival within a millenium makes 0,1 % for one century it will be in only ten times more, that is 1 %. The Same error in less obvious kind arises, if we need to extrapolate the same 50 % of a survival within 100 years on probability of destruction. Linear approximation would give 0,5 % for a year. However the exact value calculated under −

t t0

formula 1 − 2 , makes approximately 0,7 %, that is in 1,4 times above, than intuitive linear approximation gives.

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The St.-Petersburg paradox: This paradox has the direct relation to global catastrophes as shows that infinitely big damage from the extremely rare events has weight, than all other events, however psychologically people are not ready to apprehend it. G.G.Malinetsky so describes this paradox in the book Risk. A sustainable development. Synergetrics”:”we Will consider the following game. The coin is thrown until the eagle for the first time will not drop out. If it was required n throws the prize will make 2n units. That is prizes 2,4,8, … 2n will occur to probability 1/2,1/4,1/8, … 1/2n. The expected prize in this game is infinite:

∑ (1 2 ) ∞

n =1

n

⋅ 2n = ∞ .

It is asked, how many human is ready to pay for the right to enter into such game. The paradox consists that the majority of people is ready to pay for this right no more than 100, and sometimes and 20 units Distinction between danger and risk : The risk is created by accepted decisions, and dangers - circumstances. As the basic source of risk of global catastrophes are new technologies decisions on their development and application define it. However if technologies develop spontaneously and they become similar to natural dangers. The error connected by that if probability nobody events is not computable, to it believe the zero: Whereas the principle of precaution would demand, that we attributed to such events 100 percentage probability. However it would lead to absurd conclusions in the spirit of: the probability of disembarkation of aliens is unknown tomorrow, therefore we should prepare for it how if it was equal to 100 percent. In this case it is possible to use indirect ways of an estimation of probability. Omission of that safety of system is defined by its weakest link: If in a premise there are three parallel doors, one of which is locked by three locks, the second - two, and the third - one the premise is locked on one lock. As do not strengthen two strongest doors, it will change nothing. Hypotheses without consideration: To reject a certain hypothesis, it should be considered in the beginning. But it is

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frequent this sequence it is broken. People refuse to consider those or other improbable assumptions because they reject them. However reliably to reject a certain assumption it is possible, only carefully it having considered, and for this purpose it is necessary to accept it at least for some time seriously. Variety of essentially important processes for us is so combined what to predict them it is impossible, as they can have the different reasons. It can be connected with incomprehensibility of process (for example, Technological Singularity, or, for example, how the theorem the Farm is incomprehensible for a dog), that is is connected with basic qualitative limitation of a human brain. (Such is our situation with a prediction of behaviour of Superintelligence in the form of AI.) • It can be connected with quantum processes which do possible only a likelihood prediction, that is systems (weather forecast, a brain). • It can be connected with supercomplexity of systems in which force each new factor completely changes our representation about a definitive outcome. That concern: models of global warming, nuclear winter, global economy, model of exhaustion of resources. Four last fields of knowledge unite that everyone describes the unique event, which else never was in history, that is is advancing model. • It can be connected that the meant volume of calculations though is final, but it is so great, that any conceivable computer cannot execute it during Universe existence. This kind íåâû÷èñëèìîñòè to be shown in the form of chaotic determined by system. • It is connected also by that though to us the correct theory can be known (along with many other things), we cannot know, which theory is correct. That is the theory, besides correctness, should be easily demonstrable for everything, and it not one too, in conditions when experimental check is impossible. Somewhat in the way of calculation of correctness of the theory, to be exact - measures of confidence of them, the market where or direct rates on a certain outcome become is, or on the price there is nobody

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Biological Disaster Management the goods connected with the forecast, for example, of the price for oil. However the theory influences a market price many other factors: gamble, emotions or not market nature of the object. (It is senseless to be insured against global catastrophe as there is nobody and there is nobody for it will pay off, and owing to it it is possible to tell, that its insurance price is equal to zero.) • One more kind is connected with possibility of realisation of self-coming true or self-denying forecasts which do system essentially astable and unpredictable. • It is, connected with the assumption of own site (selfsampling assumption - see about it N.Bostroma’s book). The essence of this assumption consists that in some a situation we should consider myself as the casual representative from some set of people. For example, considering myself as usual human, we can conclude, that we with probability in 1/12 had chances to be born in September. Or with probability, let us assume, 1 to 1000 we could be born the dwarf. It sometimes allows to do predictions on the future: namely, if in Russia 100 billionaires chances, that we will become the billionaire, make one to 1,5 million, in the assumption, that this proportion will remain. To it results, when we try to apply the assumption of own site to own knowledge. For example, if we know, that only 10 % of futurologists give correct predictions we should conclude, that with chances of 90 % any my predictions wrong. The majority of people do not notice it as for the account of superconfidence and the raised estimation consider itself not as one of representatives of set and as “elite” of this set, the possessing raised ability to predictions. It is especially shown in gamblings and game in the market where people do not follow obvious thought: the Majority of people loses in a roulette, hence, I, most likely, will lose. • The Similar form is connected with an information neutrality of the market. (Told further is considerable simplification of the theory of the market and problems of information value of indicators given to it. However more detailed consideration does not remove the named

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problem but only complicates it, creating one more levelnamely impossibility for the usual human to seize all completeness of knowledge connected with the theory of predictions, and also uncertainty of what of theories of predictions is true. See about information value of the market so-called no trade theorem.) The ideal market is in balance in which half of players considers, that the goods will rise in price, and half - what to become cheaper. In other words, win in game with the zero sum the majority of people, human can only cleverer or informed, than. However the majority of people everything are not cleverer, than, by definition though are not capable to realise it because of psychological bias. For example, the price for oil is at such level that does not give obvious acknowledgement to the assumption of inevitability of the crisis connected with exhaustion of oil, the assumption of limitlessness of oil stocks. As a result the rational player does not receive any information on for what scenario to it prepares. The same situation concerns and disputes: If a certain human has chosen to prove the point of view opposite to yours, and you of anything do not know about its intelligence, erudition and information sources, and also about the objective rating, that is chances 50 on 50, that it is right, instead of you. As objectively to measure the intelligence and awareness extremely difficultly because of desire them to overestimate, it is necessary to consider their being in the spectrum middle. • As in a modern society mechanisms of transformation of any future parametres in market indexes (for example, trade in quotas under the Kiotsky report on emissions of carbonic gas or the rate on elections, war and ò operate. ä, futures for weather) it brings an additional element of basic unpredictability in all kinds of activity. Owing to such trade we cannot learn for certain, whether there will be a global warming, exhaustion of oil, what real threat of a bird flu. • One more reason - privacy. If we try to consider this privacy through different plot theories in the spirit of book

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The psychological aspect of this problem consists that people argue how if any was not. In other words, it is possible to find out some opinions and reasonings on the future in which its basic and multilateral unpredictability is not considered at all, no less than limitation of human ability it is authentic about it to argue. Observant selection: Observant selection is a form of an error when owing to a way of product of experiment its one results are more appreciable, than others. For example, brighter stars in the sky are more appreciable, but it does not mean, that all stars bright. A special case of observant selection is when the different outcome of event observes different number of observers that takes place in case of destruction of the observer in one of outcomes. For example, the soldiers who have gone through of some months of war, are inclined to overestimate the survivability - that is at them the erroneous sensation of own invulnerability is born. Global catastrophes, obviously, concern such class of processes. THE SPECIFIC ERRORS ARISING IN DISCUSSIONS ABOUT DANGER OF UNCONTROLLABLE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLECT The disorder of opinions of safety of AI means absence of real proofs of safety: Experts in computers state many different opinions on the reasons of why, in their opinion, AI is safe. These statements each other, and, means, their considerable part is false. Therefore we can safely result them as examples of errors, not pressing in proofs each separate statement. we have spent on the Internet interrogation among developers of AI, on a theme of that is a guarantee of safety of AI, and have received the following disorder of opinions, with approximately identical number of the people, holding this or that opinion. So, AI is safe, because:

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1) because AI is impossible. 2) because AI can solve only narrow problems, like recognition of images. 3) because when we will make universal AI, we will enter into it Three laws of a robotics of Azimov. 4) Because we know how to use AI in the blessing to people. 5) Because AI will possess superhuman wisdom by definition and will not want to cause harm to people. 6) Because AI it is necessary nothing from people, and we can co-exist peacefully with each other. 7) Because it will be locked in my computer and if something goes not so, we will switch off an electricity. 8) because at AI cannot be the will. 9) AI is impossible without a free will, therefore we should give it freedom. 10) Because AI cannot make anything bad. 11) AI can be dangerous, but, most likely, all will manage. 12) Is not present, AI is dangerous, and all of us are doomed. 13) AI will destroy mankind, and we should aspire to it, as AI is more progressive form of evolution. In a course îïîðîñà it has appeared, that these opinions are distributed more or less in regular intervals. It means, that the information sum of safety of AI which researchers of AI as a whole possess, is equal to zero. The idea that it is possible to create faultless system, repeatedly having checked up its project and an initial code is erroneous: Checks bring some number of new errors, and owing to it at certain level the number of errors is stabilised. It is true and about systems what laws, for example, are. It is not necessary to count, that we can create the arch corrected behaviour for AI, not containing errors. Errors in the critic of AI: R.Penrouz in the book New mind of the king asserts, that AI is impossible, because in a brain there are not computable quantum processes which are necessary for creative thinking and consciousness. On the basis of it often affirms,

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that dangerous AI is impossible. It is represented to me, that the given conclusion is not quite correct for following reasons: 1. The quantum nature of consciousness it is far not sciences. We cannot base safety of mankind on not proved (though also interesting) the theory. 2. It is impossible to prove impossibility something in the nature theoretically. (But possibility to prove it is possiblefor example, a background Neumann has proved possibility of self-reproduced mechanisms.) 3. That AI became dangerous, it does not need to possess neither consciousness, nor ability to creativity. Modern AI can beat any human in chess, not using neither consciousnesses, nor intuitions. That is the intuition is only the useful characteristic reducing speed of search of combinations, but replaced with algorithms. It is enough to tell, that dangerous AI is AI which can beat human in any game. War and earning money are versions of such games. 4. If certain special quantum functions are carried out neuronàìè or microtubes nothing prevents to use them as elements of future powerful AI - for example, in the form of the external coprocessor. Quantum computers are one of realisation variants. Eventually, strong AI can arise not as the computer, and as genetically modified human with (that is connected directly to the computer). And at the worst, if the class of the problems accessible to human is found out, but not accessible to the computer, the situation of direct operation of people for the decision of these problems is possible, thus each of people will not know, its decision will be applied how. So now spam programs, for example, work - they ask people on the site with êëóáíè÷êîé to distinguish estimated figures in the drawing taken from other site, and thus get access to this other site. Thus people use blindly as people do not know, that results of their recognition will be used in other place. Similarly the state employs scientists for weapon working out. 5. The considerable number of the important problems can be solved search, that is by realisation of final number of

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operations. For example, it can be search of all possible combinations of the signs generating the text of the proof of the theorem. In other words, there is an algorithm, allowing to solve any problem. And a question only in its optimisation. Probably, that the decision of those problems on which the destiny of mankind can depend, quite probably search even if there are some problems which search do not dare during Universe existence. 6. If it will be possible to prove, that the consciousness all the same possesses the quantum nature, it will open the new world of possibilities, so also new risks. Representation that is enough 3 laws of a robotics of A.Azimova to solve all problems with safety of AI: It was already repeatedly shown in different researches, that robotics laws are not a guarantee of safety AI in a little considerable measure: 1. These laws are a tautology as from them follows, that AI will be safe, because it will not cause harm. 2. They comprise contradictions which is masterful is beaten by Azimov in its stories - the robot often tests the conflict between 1, 2 and 3 laws and as a result behaves in the dangerous image. 3. These laws concern independent robots, instead of to AI which is not adhered to one mechanism. 4. They lean against intuitive concept of “harm” which is not defined by them and consequently can accept any form. For example: to live harmfully because of it die. 5. These laws are faster wishes - that is that we want from AI, instead of rules by which it could be guided. It is not known, how to place these laws in AI. Erroneous representations that progress in the field of the software is absent: Algorithms of decomposition of numbers on a multiplier improve faster, than hardware maintenance. There is a progress and in other areas, but it less will measure. Eventually, equipment progress is too progress of that our understanding how to make microcircuits less. Erroneous representations that anybody in the world is not engaged such in a theme as AI: It is known some firms and

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people which actively work over creation of universal AI - Numenta, Novamenta, SIAI, a2i2. More detailed review of programs on AI creation see in the head about risks of AI. Erroneous representations that AI are different concrete appendices, like technics of recognition of images: Here there is a substitution of theses. In the given book under AI the Artificial intellect means. That someone extends the workings out under a brand “AI” though they actually it are not, does not follow, that AI is impossible. In the English-speaking literature term GAI General AI is extended - the Universal artificial intellect which is intended for elimination of this ambiguity, also suggest to use the term artificial reason. Unconsciously we humanise AI set of different ways, and it forms our expectations. See in article Yudkowsky in the appendix more in detail. In particular, we perceive AI as object which somewhere is, has accurate borders, the purposes etc. Erroneous representation what enough to disconnect AI from a food that it to stop: This statement is based on the assumption, that programmer Ii will know, when process has gone incorrectlyobviously, incorrect. the second incorrect assumption - about locality of ai. the third - that ai cannot protect the food, either having masked, or having left in a network. the fourth - that the programmer cannot be in collusion with ai (and-or will deceive it). Erroneous representation that, even having extended on the Internet, AI cannot influence an external world in any way: Incorrectly - on the Internet it is possible to earn money and to order any actions in an external world. The contract with people, blackmail and a direct control of mechanisms is besides, possible. Erroneous representation that AI cannot have own desires, therefore it never begins to do to human harm: That AI has earned, before it will put certain problems. In the course of their performance it can realise those or others. These ïîäöåëè can be very dangerous, if on them correct restrictions. The most known example - nobody AI charge to prove hypothesis Ðèìàíà and for the sake of this purpose it transforms all substance of Solar system into computers.

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Erroneous representation that AI will master space, having left the Earth to human: This good wish, but in it already is bitterness of capitulation. There are no bases to think, that AI is obliged also it actually it will do. Erroneous representation that any AI is intelligence, therefore it possesses the purpose X (to substitute necessary), and this blessing: The intelligence is a tool which can be directed on achievement of any purpose. People use the most powerful intelligence to reach the primitive purposes which are peculiar to the alpha male of monkey’s herd - to heat competitors, to achieve an arrangement of females, to get livelihood - and for the sake of all it verses are written, theorems are proved, plots trudge. Therefore presence of intelligence does not mean any unequivocal purpose. (And to think so, means to pass from the facts to obligations that comprises always a logic error.) and especially abstract purpose (to learn the world, for example) cannot be the concrete blessing for all people for all depends on ways of realisation of this purpose. Erroneous representation that modern computers are very limited in the possibilities, therefore AI will be only in the longterm future - through tens or hundreds years: As we do not know, that such AI, we do not know, what exactly should be invented, that it to create, that is why we can not state exact time forecasts. AI can arise and tomorrow - the company a2i2 plans to finish the project in 2008, other projects are guided for 2011 Existing rates of progress in the field of creation of powerful computers are sufficient to create the computers close on productivity to our brain, the next years, and there are no inevitable reasons on which growth of capacity of computers should will be slowed down. Erroneous representation that progress in understanding of work of a brain goes very slowly. Therefore AI will work very slowly: But the slowness of preparatory processes does not mean a slowness of the process. Yudkowsky in article which you will find in the appendix, denies it a difference example between time of working out of the nuclear weapon and speed of processes in a bomb. Erroneous representation that human is capable to do X (to substitute necessary) that never can do AI and consequently AI

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does not represent any threat: X can have in different interpretations of quality of inspirations, intuitions, fast recognition of images, experiences of feelings, comprehension, love. However: 1. We do not know, that can or AI cannot, yet we will not make it. 2. AI can be dangerous, even if it cannot do H.Naprimer, he can win against us in chess, at a stock exchange, or in any other vital game for us. 3. If there is a certain problem which human can solve only, AI can employ or subordinate to itself people for its decision. For example, the modern state employs scientists, and gives everyone a problem fragment on working out, say, a nuclear bomb. Erroneous representation that AI is impossible because he thinks algorithmically, and human: The requirement at AI creation is not necessary. Genetic algorithms, quantum computers, implantation neuronîâ in chips and methods do the requirement conditional. A question on that, human how thinks, is not opened yet. Recently it was possible to learn to play the computer better human in poker (Texas - and after all poker is considered that game in which the intuition is especially important) and it is better to play human a stock exchange (on models). It means, that real people will lose money, facing with computers at a stock exchange or on online tournaments. Probably, that for them the question on, whether possesses the computer consciousness or is the calculator not so is important, as that, how many they have lost. If the computer learns to distinguish images of an external world it can also is effective win disputes, pursue you in wood, shoot on the purposes, do drawings. It is pleasant to human to think, that it is better (more cleverly, more absolutely etc.) the computer because it has an intuition. However time so it is necessary to concern with suspicion this idea as it can be caused emotions. We cannot build the system of safety on the statement which to us is pleasant. AND suddenly we underestimate force of algorithms? Suddenly there is such algorithm which works more powerfully sew intuitions? Erroneous representation that AI will be about same clever, as well as human: There is an erroneous representation that AI

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will possess approximately human abilities, and in the future the society consisting of people and “robots” is formed. However the set of possible human minds, most likely, is only a small part of set in general possible minds. Therefore it is improbable, that, having reached human level, AI on it will stop. Having increased its speed of work, having connected it with thousand other AI, having added a computer faultlessness and memory, we can strengthen in thousand times AI of human level, not making basic discovery. Erroneous representation that AI will be the employee of human equal in rights with the same possibilities and the rights: Here confuse AI and the separate robot. In the event that its possibilities will infinitely surpass human their “equality” will be strong to the detriment of people. As in any equal competition it will beat people. Besides, it can have representations about equality. Erroneous representation that AI will be much: When we speak a virus extends on the Internet, we mean one virus though it has many copies. When we speak about the Internet, we mean one Internet. When we speak about the state (being in it) we too mean one state. As also AI will be one though it can have a set of copies and displays. Even if there will be some kinds of AI among them only one will be the main thing. That is we will face not set of separate intelligent cars, and with one system of inhuman scales more likely; examples of such systems are the science, the state and the Internet. Distinctions in understanding of that, actually, is intelligence: Possibly, to make correct definition of intelligence is already almost to create an artificial intellect. From the point of view of safety such definition to give easier: AI is the car, capable to win human in activity any kind (or even: at least in one kind of the activity, which vital for human, thus we mean under activity by management by processes - that is an information work). That is we define AI through its ability to solve practically problems. We lay aside a question on consciousness, a free will, creativity. This definition basically identically offered Yudkowsky to AI definition as powerful process of optimisation. An erroneous unequivocal identification of AI with separate object: AI is defined by that it does (effectively carries out

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optimisation process), however representation that there is an essence generating these actions, can conduct us to errors. For example, evolution process in Darvinian sense generates more and more effective decisions. However this process does not have any centre which puts the purposes or which can be destroyed. Erroneous representation what enough to hide AI in a black box that it became safe: If we have placed AI in a black box (that is completely isolated it), and then have received results of its work then, there was a bilaterial information interchange, and the black box is not that. If we do not receive any information from a black box, it is equivalent to that in general it not to include. Difficulty here in knowing, that AI has already arisen to understand, that it is time to us to place it in a black box. At last, AI can crack a black box from within, for example, radiating radio signals, or reading out current fluctuations in the power supply system. Erroneous objection of a following sort: In Japan already there was a project on creation AI in 80th years, and it has failed, therefore AI is impossible: In 1880th years there were some projects on plane creation, and they have failed. After that the opinion has extended, that the plane is impossible. That is some unsuccessful attempts with unusable means do not mean basic impossibility. Besides, the project in Japan has not decayed up to the end, and other AI-projects simply less advertised have grown from it. However this bright failure has affected as trust of public to such projects, and on propensity of researchers to promise improbable results. Erroneous representation that AI it is necessary to give a command X (to substitute necessary), and all will be as it should be: Command Õ can be: to love all people, not to cause to people of harm, to obey only me etc. But we cannot check up, how AI realises any command, yet we will not start it. And when we will start, can be late. Erroneous representation in the spirit of: When we will reach efficiency in realisation AI, we will think of its safety: Incorrectly. To check up efficiency AI it is possible, only having started it on a challenge connected with the real world. If from AI left from under the control of safety will think late. Some types

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of AI can be incompatible with standard safety, for example, based on genetic algorithms. Therefore measures on safety maintenance should be built in AI from the very beginning, they cannot be a makeweight on it. And in all other large projects safety is considered from the very beginning. Erroneous representation in the spirit of: It is improbable, that our project on creation AI leaves from under the control: In the world it is a lot of AI-projects and few knowledge of how to measure probability of uncontrollable distribution of AI. It is enough to lose the control over one project. Besides, in a case when the programmer uses strong AI in the purposes, from its point of view it does not look revolt, but from the point of view of other people - is it. Erroneous representation in the spirit of: We can of what does not care, because AI will solve all our problems: Among supporters of powerful AI there is an opinion, that some future problems should not be solved, because when there will be powerful AI, it will find the best and more exact decision of these problems. However before start of powerful AI in the real world to us should set it some circle of problems and correctly to formulate, that we want also that we do not want, it is necessary to think well of it in advance. THE SPECIFIC ERRORS CONNECTED BY REASONINGS ON RISKS OF USE NANOTECHNOLOGYÉ Erroneous representation that Nanotechnology are impossible as it is impossible to create mechanisms to within one atom It not so, - are fibers who are the most different mechanisms: valves, scissors, - and in them it is important and it is defined by a site of each atom. Erroneous representation that nanofactory è is more safe nanoassembler : Nanofactory è are the macroscopical devices making the devices (for example, photolithographic manufacture of microcircuits). Nanoassembler û are devices, capable to make the copies. By means of one it is possible to make another and on the contrary, that is these devices are functionally isomorphic.

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Erroneous representation that Nanotechnology are so far from us in time that it is possible not to think of them : From practical realisation nanotechnologyé we are separated only by missing knowledge. If we had it, we could collect such chain of DNA which, being is started in a bacterium cage, would allow to make operated nanoassembler. Erroneous representations in the spirit of Nanotechnology have thought up only for money-laundering: As such explanation can be applied to everything it explains nothing. Even if someone launders money with the help nanotechnologyé, it does not mean, that nanorobots are impossible. Crash does not mean a pillboxkomov, that it is impossible to earn money on the Internet. Erroneous representation that Nanotechnology are connected only with materials technology, materials : Far not all so think, and workings out in area nanorobots are conducted. Intermediate object between nanorobotàìè and is lithograph of chips which allows to etch any mechanisms from silicon including with mobile parts - technology MEMS (for example, micropendulums for gyroscopes). The basic progress of the law mess goes for the development account nanotechnologyé more and more precision press of semiconductors. Erroneous representation that nanorobots will be weaker than bacteria, because bacteria had billions years to adapt to environment: It is no more true, than the statement, that Planes will be more safe than birds because birds developed during millions years. Human achievements usually surpass biological in any one parametre (to the size, speed, speed). Erroneous representation that if nanorobots were possible, them already would be created by the nature: The nature has not created a wheel, but it is possible and effective. On the other hand the nature has created analogue nanorobots in the form of bacteria which show basic possibility of self-sufficient self-reproduced microscopic devices. Erroneous representation that nanorobots cannot breed in an environment: If bacteria can breed in the nature can and nanorobots - after all they can use all receptions accessible to bacteria.

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Erroneous representation that nanorobots in an environment it will be easy to destroy bomb explosion: For this purpose it is necessary to know precisely where they are. If they have already got into a city to blow up them it will be impossible. After all do not struggle with infectious illnesses by means of bombs. Erroneous representation that nanorobots will consist only of several atoms that is impossible: The name conditionally also does not mean, that the length will be equal to several íàíîìåòðàì. It can be length 1 micrometer and more, is capable to selfreproduction and performance of set of functions. Also it is thus invisible. In this case it will contain billions and even billions atoms. Erroneous representation that nanorobots will be silly and inefficient as in them it is impossible to place the computer: In any cage of human there is DNA in volume about 500 mbyte from which it is made to one million operations a second. It is enough of it for creation enough the strong computer. It shows us an achievable limit of density of calculations though not necessarily in nanorobotàõ DNA computers will be used. Nanorobots can unite in local networks, strengthening the computing productivity repeatedly. E.Dreksler about possible objections of a realizability nanotechnologyé : Further we will result the extensive citation from E.Drekslera, the founder of idea of creation nanorobots in which we will allocate names: Whether will make a principle of uncertainty of quantum physics molecular cars impracticable? Among other things, this principle specifies that it is impossible to define an exact site of a particle during any interval of time. It limits that molecular cars can do, no less than limits that can do something else. Nevertheless, calculations show, that the uncertainty principle imposes few essential restrictions on that, how much easily atoms can be placed on their places, at least, for those purposes which appear here. The uncertainty principle does a site indistinct enough, and actually this vagueness defines the size and structure of atoms. The atom as whole, however, has rather certain site corresponding to rather massive core . If atoms did not keep the position rather well, molecules would not exist. The quantum mechanics it is not required to prove these

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conclusions as molecular cars in a cage show that molecular cars work. Whether will make thermal vibrations of molecules molecular cars disabled or too unreliable that them to use? : Thermal fluctuations will cause the big problems, than an uncertainty principle. However and in this case existing molecular cars directly show, that molecular cars can work and at usual temperatures. Despite thermal fluctuations, mechanisms of copying of DNA in some cages do less than one error on 100 000 000 000 operations. To reach such accuracy, however, cages use cars (such as enzyme of DNA-polimeraza I) which check a copy and correct errors. For assemblers it can be quite necessary similar abilities of check and correction of errors if they are intended to give out reliable results. Whether radiation will destroy molecular cars or to do their unsuitable for use? Radiation of high energy can break chemical bonds and destroy molecular cars. Live cages once again show, that decisions exist: they work within years, restoring and replacing the parts damaged by radiation. However as each separate car such tiny, it represents the small purpose for radiation, and radiation seldom gets to it. Nevertheless, if the system íàíîìàøèí be reliable, it should maintain certain quantity of damages, and the damaged parts should be repaired or replaced regularly. This approach to reliability is well familiar to developers of planes and spaceships. Evolution has not managed to make assemblers. Whether says it what they either are impossible, or are useless? Answering the previous questions, we partly referred to already working molecular cars of cages. They represent the simple and powerful proof of that nature laws allow small groups of atoms to behave as the operated cars, capable to build others. However in spite of that they in a basis remind ribosomes, assemblers will differ from everything, that is in cages; though they consist in usual movements of molecules and reactions, that they do, will have new results. For example, any cage does not make a diamond fibre. Proofs of a realizability of assemblers and others can seem proved but why not to wait and to look, whether is valid they can be developed? Pure curiosity seems the sufficient reason to

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investigate the possibilities opened nanotechnology, but there are also stronger reasons. Nanotechnology will capture the world in limits from ten till fifty years, that is within terms of a life our own or members of our families. That is more essential, the conclusions of the following chapter prompt, that for the politician we “will wait-will look” there would be the expensive: it would cost millions lives, and, probably, lives on the Earth . Our propensity to expect grandiose results only from the grandiose reasons: The boring fact: some electric switches can switch on and off each other. These switches can be made very small and consuming not enough electricity. The Grandiose Consequence: if them to connect correctly, these switches form computers, cars of information revolution... The BORING FACT: a mould and bacteria compete for the food, therefore some a mould have learnt to allocate poisons which kill bacteria. The GRANDIOSE CONSEQUENCE: penicillin, a victory over many bacterial diseases, and rescue of millions lives. Erroneous representation that details íàíîìàøèí will stick together owing to quantum, and other forces: But fibers in live cages do not stick together. Offered a realisation variant nanotechnologyé by means of mechanical robots from wheels not unique. Intermediate variants with the device are possible. Erroneous representation that active nanotechnology the board similar to immune system, will be ideal protection from dangerous nanorobots: Any immune system in a reality, in live organisms, anti-virus in computers, is not absolutely reliable. Besides, there are autoimmune diseases. Active boards see more in detail the head. Erroneous representation that - the visionary, and the presents Nanotechnology consist in something the friend: It was necessary to meet statements from experts in area nanotechnologyé, that nanorobots are imaginations, and the presents Nanotechnology consist in detailed measurement of certain very thin parametres structures. However actually these researches are at different levels. Researches concern “design” level. In the same way, as to it the idea to make a nuclear bomb concerned in due time. That is it is wood level, instead of trees. Eric Dreksler - it is far not the unique seer advanced nanotechnology, connected with molecular

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manufacture and nanorobotàìè. It is possible to name also R.Frejtasa and other employees of the Center responsible nanotechnologyé. DISTORTIONS IN AN ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL RISKS The scale can be estimated influence of errors on reasonings on global risks, having compared opinions of different experts, scientists and politicians of possibility of definitive global catastrophe and its possible reasons. It is easy to be convinced, that the disorder of opinions is huge. One consider total risk insignificant, others are confident inevitability of human extinction. As the possible reasons the set of different technologies and scenarios is called, and different experts offer the sets of possible scenarios and sets of impossible scenarios. It is obvious, that roots of such disorder of opinions - in a variety of movements of thought which, in absence of any visible reference point, appears it is subject to various biases and distortions. As we cannot find a reference point concerning global risks in experiment, it is represented desirable that open discussion about methodology of research of global risks on which basis the uniform and conventional picture of global risks could be generated became such reference point.

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7 Possible Rules A precaution principle: It means preparation for the worst realistic scenario in all situations of uncertainty. Realistic it is necessary to consider any scenario which does not contradict known laws of physics and has precisely probability above there is nobody threshold level. It corresponds to a principle of a conservative engineering estimation. However precaution should not have irrational character, that is should not exaggerate a situation. One of formulations of a principle of precaution sounds so: the precaution Principle is a moral and political principle which asserts, that if a certain action or the politician can cause a severe or irreversible damage to a society, that, in absence of the scientific consent that harm will not be, weight of the proof lays on those who offers the given actions. A doubt principle: The principle of doubt demands to suppose possibility of an inaccuracy of any idea. However the doubt should not lead to instability of a course of thought, blind trust to authorities, absence of the opinion and uncertainty in it if it is proved enough. Open discussion: Important maintenance of open discussion by all kinds of risks. It means consideration of any objection as true sufficient time, that it to estimate before deciding it to reject. Not to reject any objections to a descent and to support presence of opponents. Introspection: The continuous analysis of own conclusions about possible errors from all list.

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Independent repeated calculations: Here independent calculation by different people, and also comparison of direct and indirect estimations enters. An indirect estimation of degree of an error: We can estimate degree of underestimation of global catastrophe, studying that, how much people underestimate similar risks - that is risks of unique catastrophes. For example, spaceships the Space the Shuttle have been calculated on one failure more than on 1000 flights, but the first failure has occurred on 25th flight. That is the initial estimation 1 to 25 would be more exact. Nuclear stations were under construction counting upon one failure in one million years, but Chernobyl failure has occurred approximately after 10 000 stations-years of operation (this number turns out from multiplication of number of stations by that moment for average term of their operation, and demands specification). So, in the first case real stability has appeared in 40 times worse, than the design estimation, and in the second - in 100 times is worse. From here we can draw a conclusion, that in case of unique difficult objects people underestimate their risks in tens times. PROSPECTS OF PREVENTION OF GLOBAL CATASTROPHES The mankind is not doomed not so to extinction. And even if our chances are insignificant, infinitely big future costs that for it to struggle. Definitely positive fact is that ice has got under wayin 2000th years the number of publications on a problematics of global catastrophes of the general character has sharply increased and the uniform understanding of a problem has started to develop. There is a hope, that in the nearest decades the problem of global risks becomes conventional, and the people who have absorbed understanding of importance of these problems, will appear in the power. Possibly, it will occur not smoothly, and after painful shocks, like September, 11th, each of which will raise readership of the literature on global risks and will urge forward discussion. Besides, it is possible to hope, that efforts of separate people and groups of concerned citizens will promote realisation

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of such perspective strategy, as differential development of technologies. Namely, development of Friendly AI will occur advancing rates, than, for example, consciousness loading in the computer which as a result will find huge forces, but will be uncontrollable. Also it is important, that powerful AI has arisen earlier, than will appear strong Nanotechnology - besides can supervise them. Probably, we should reconcile the period superfluous and even the totalitarian control over human activity during this period when the risk will be maximum, and the understanding of concrete threats - is minimum. During this period it will be not clear, which knowledge is really knowledge of mass defeat, and what - a harmless toy. Probably, that to us will simply carry also any risk it is not materialised. On the other hand, probably, that to us will carry less, and the train of large catastrophes will reject a civilisation in the development far back, however human will remain and will find wiser approach to realisation of technological achievements. Probably, that on this way it is necessary to us a difficult choice: to remain for ever at medieval level, having refused computers and flights to stars or to risk and try to become something big. Despite all risk, this second scenario looks for me more attractive as the mankind closed on the Earth is doomed sooner or later to extinction for the natural reasons. Growth of efforts on creation of refuges of a different sort is observed also: in Norway the storehouse for seeds on a case of global catastrophe is constructed. Though such storehouse will not rescue people, the fact of intention is praised to put up money and real resources in projects, return from which is possible only in centuries. The project of creation of a similar refuge on the Moon which even name a spare disk for a civilisation is actively discussed. In this refuge it is supposed to keep not only all knowledge of people, but also the frozen human embryos, in hope what somebody (aliens?) will restore then on them people.

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At the same time, in this book we tried to show, that unreasoned actions on prevention of catastrophes can be not less dangerous, than catastrophes. Hence, at the moment the basic efforts should be concentrated not to concrete projects, and at all on propagation of a “green” way of life, and on growth of understanding of the nature of possible risks, on formation of a scientific consensus that actually is dangerous also what risk levels are comprehensible. Thus such discussion cannot be infinitely long as in certain more abstract areas as then we risk to “oversleep” really approaching catastrophe. It means, that we are limited in time.

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8 Final Warning: A History of the New World Order There is a group of men, who, for over 200 years, have been controlling the destiny of the United States. In 1910, they secretly met on a small island off the coast of Georgia. Their plan: to formulate a program to destroy the financial structure of America. To do that, they pushed Woodrow Wilson into the presidency; and in 1913, Wilson signed into law, the Federal Reserve Act and the Federal Income Tax. In 1921, these international bankers established the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). The U.S. Government took advantage of the CFR’s experience in finance and foreign affairs, and one of their study groups, the Advisory Committee on Post-War Foreign Policy, became part of the State Department in 1941. The secret goal of this study group was to condition the Congress, and the people of this country to accept the establishment of the United Nations (UN). The UN, initiated in 1945, does not seek to promote world peace and cooperation– it was the first step towards a one-world government, which is now referred to as the New World Order. The CFR is a subsidiary of the Round Table Organization, a group of British elitists controlled by the most powerful family in the world– the Rothschilds, who, through an organization known as the Illuminati, have been controlling world events since 1776, and are now poised for the establishment of a one-world government- with them in control. The Illuminati controls world leaders and the money that runs their countries. They can elect a President, and they can kill a President. They can shut-off the

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oil, and plunge the world into war. Even though they operate under the strictest secrecy, their goals have been known for over 2,000 years. After reading this book, you will know why things are the way they are; and when you hear that ‘They’ are responsible for something, you will finally know who ‘They’ are. Learn about the origin and history of the New World Order, and how they are driving an unsuspecting world towards the fulfillment of Bible Prophecy. Now out of print, since it was initially published in 2004 and posted on the Internet, Final Warning has become the most widely circulated book about the New World Order ever written, and stands alone as the ultimate reference work on the subject. THE BIRTH OF TYRANNY When you talk about tracing the origin of an organization which is controlling the destiny of the world, it’s obvious that you have to start at a period which would allow a movement of this magnitude, time to ferment. Changes like the ones which have, and are occurring do not take place overnight. We are dealing with a group which must have been growing for a long period of time, in order to obtain the power and influence necessary to achieve the global control now being exercised. When you think of it in that context, there is such a group. The Illuminati. The leader of the Illuminati was a man named, Dr. Adam Weishaupt, who was born on February 6, 1748, the son of a Jewish rabbi. When his father died in 1753, he was converted to Catholicism by Baron Johann Adam Ickstatt, who turned the early training of the boy over to the Jesuits. Ickstatt, in 1742, had been appointed by the Jesuits to be the curator of the University in order to reorganize it. He had retired in 1765, but still controlled its policies. Although Weishaupt later became a priest, he developed a distinct hatred for the Jesuits, and became an atheist. Given access to the private library of Ickstatt, his godfather, the young man became interested in the works of the French philosophers, and studied law, economics, politics, and history. One such philosopher, Voltaire (1694-1778), a revolutionary who held liberal religious views, had written in a letter to King Frederick II (‘the Great’, a

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Mason): “Lastly, when the whole body of the Church should be sufficiently weakened and infidelity strong enough, the final blow (is) to be dealt by the sword of open, relentless persecution. A reign of terror (is) to be spread over the whole earth, and … continue while a Christian should be found obstinate enough to adhere to Christianity.” It is believed that Weishaupt got his ideas concerning the destruction of the Church from Voltaire’s writings. He studied in France, where he met Robespierre (who later led the French Revolution), and became friends with a few people in the French Royal Court. It is believed, that through these contacts, he was introduced to Satanism. He graduated from the Bavarian University in Ingolstadt, Germany in 1768. He served four years as a tutor until he was promoted to Assistant Instructor. In 1770, he was chosen by Mayer Amschel Rothschild to develop an organization that he could use. In 1772, Weishaupt was made Professor of Civil Law. In 1773, he was made Professor of Canon Law, a post which had been held by the Jesuits for 90 years. They had founded most of the Universities, and kept strict control of them in order to eliminate Protestant influence. In 1773, Weishaupt got married, against the wishes of Ickstatt, who denounced him. Two years later, at the age of 27, he was made Dean of the Faculty of Law. The Jesuits, worried about his quick progression, tried to thwart his influence by secretly plotting against him, and his liberal thinking. Not wanting to become a martyr for his free-thinking ideas, he began focusing on establishing his organization. To confuse his detractors, he based the organizational structure on the one used by the Jesuits, however, his intention was to have a secret coalition of liberalism. He studied the anti-Christian doctrines of the Manicheans, whose teachings revolved around astrology, medicine, and magic. He had been indoctrinated into Egyptian occult practices by an unknown merchant named Kolmer, from Jutland (the area around the border of Denmark and West Germany), who had been traveling around Europe since 1771. He studied the power of the Eleusinian mysteries and the influence exerted by the secret cult of the Pythagoreans. Pythagoras was a 6th century B.C., philosopher who taught that men and women should combine

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their belongings– which became the basic philosophy behind Communism. Weishaupt also studied the teachings of the Essenes, and acquired copies of the Kabala, The Major Key of Solomon, and The Lesser Key of Solomon, which revealed how to conjure up demons and perform occult rituals. He studied the various Masonic writings after meeting a Protestant Freemason from Hanover. At first he thought about creating a superior Masonic-like organization that would be made up of men possessing superior abilities in all fields but concluded that Masonry was too open. Weishaupt was instructed by the Rothschilds (who were also said to be Satanists), to leave the Catholic Church, and unite all the different occult groups. He created the coven known as the ‘Golden Dawn’ which, to this day, is alleged to be the Rothschilds’ private coven. Weishaupt spent five years working out a plan through which all of his ideas could be reduced to a single system which would be used to fight the oppression of religion, thereby loosening social ties. He wanted to replace Christianity with a religion of reason. An initial idea was to form an organization comprised of ‘Schools of Wisdom,’ whose goal was to “make of the human race, one good and happy family.” They were to strive for the perfection of morals, so he thought about naming the group the ‘Perfectibilists,’ but it lacked the air of mystery and intrigue that he sought. In 1774, he published a fictitious article called Sidonii Apollinarus Fragment, which he said, was to prepare the people for the doctrine of reason. Weishaupt wrote: “Princes and nations will disappear without violence from the earth. The human race will then become one family, and the world will be the dwelling of rational men.” He wrote of their aims: “To make the perfecting of reasoning powers interesting to mankind, to spread the knowledge of sentiments, both humane and social, to check wicked inclinations, to stand up for suffering and oppressed virtue ... to facilitate the acquirement of knowledge and science.” On May 1, 1776, under the direction of the newly formed House of Rothschild (and Wessely, Moses, Mendelssohn; and the Bankers, Itzig, Friedlander, and Meyer), who instigated the

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American Revolution to weaken Great Britain, Weishaupt founded the Ancient Illuminated Seers of Bavaria, which became known as the Order of the Illuminati. Weishaupt said that the name was derived from Luciferian teachings, and means, ‘Holders of the Light.’ In Latin, it means, the ‘enlightened ones.’ In layman’s terms, it means ‘to illuminate,’ or ‘to give light.’ It refers to someone who is enlightened, spiritually and intellectually. Satan, when he was an angel, was known as Lucifer, the ‘Bearer of Light,’ and being that the group’s name evolved from this, we can see the underlying nature of its goals. In addition, May 1st was a great day for all communist nations, where it was known as May Day; and it is also known as a special day to witches. There were some earlier groups, with similar names, such as a group known as the ‘Illuminated Ones’ which was founded by Joachim of Floris in the 11th century, who taught a primitive, supposedly Christian doctrine of “poverty and equality.” The Rosheniah, or ‘Illuminated Ones,’ (which was influenced by an earlier group known as the Eastern Ismaelites, after Ismael, the son of Jaaffer; Batiniyeh, ‘internal’ or ‘secret’; or just by their nickname, the ‘Assassins.’) was a group in Afghanistan during the 16th century, who sought the ‘illumination’ from the Supreme Being, who wanted a class of perfect men and women. After reaching the fourth degree, ‘Enlightened One,’ the initiate would receive mystical powers, and when the eighth and final degree was reached, they were told they had achieved perfection. An Afghan scholar said that their purpose was to influence people of importance to establish harmony in the world, and were devoted to fight the tyranny of the Moguls, who were the rulers of India. The group survived until the 1700’s. The Alumbrados (‘enlightened’ or ‘illuminated’) was a mysterious movement in Spain during the 16th and 17th centuries that believed that when a person achieved a certain degree of perfection, they experienced a vision of God, and then entered into direct communication with the Holy Spirit. At this point the soul would enter a state of limbo– not advancing or going back. Once this level was achieved, a person didn’t have to perform any good works or get involved in any religious activity, because they had received the ‘light.’ Once they had received the ‘light,’ they

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would possess superior human intelligence. Their members mainly came from reformed Franciscans, and the Jesuits. Their unusual claims caused them to be criticized and harassed, and the Inquisition issued Edicts against them in 1568, 1574, and 1623. Ignatius de Loyola, founder of the Jesuits, was put in jail for being a member. This condemnation forced the movement into France, where in 1654 they surfaced as the Illuminated Guerinets. The ‘Illuminati’ was the name of an occultic German sect that existed in the 15th century that professed to possess the ‘light’ received from Satan. It was also the name of an organization that was influenced by the writings of Emanuel Swedenborg, which was established in 1760 at Avignon. This Swedenborgian philosophy also produced the Illuminated Theosophists in 1766 at Paris, then later in London, but was short lived. Although it would certainly make for a more interesting story, there is no documentation to suggest that Weishaupt’s Order of the Illuminati is a continuation of any of these groups. However, whether their teachings and philosophy had an influence on him is another question. Most assuredly, there is a spiritual lineage that ties them all together. Starting with only five members (Weishaupt, and his inner circle– his friend Kollmer, Francis Dashwood of the Satanic Hellfire Club, Alphonse Donatien DeSade from whose name we get the word “sadism,” and Meyer Amschel Rothschild), the Illuminati wasn’t fully operational until 1778. Weishaupt wrote: “The great strength of our Order lies in its concealment, let it never appear, in any place in its own name, but always covered by another name, and another occupation. None is fitter than the three lower degrees of Freemasonry; the public is accustomed to it, expects little from it, and therefore takes little notice of it.” He also wrote: “For the Order wishes to be secret, and to work in silence, for thus it is better secured from the oppression of the ruling powers, and because this secrecy gives a greater zest to the whole.” The Order was made up of three degrees: Novice, Minerval, and Illuminated Minerval. It was organized in a manner similar to Freemasonry and the Jesuits. Even though he admired the structure of the Jesuit hierarchy, he wrote that no ex-Jesuits were

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to be admitted, except by special permission. He wrote that they “must be avoided as the plague.” Their rites and ceremonies were similar to that of the Masons. Their aim, he said, was to have a one-world government, to allow the elite to govern the world, thus preventing future wars. One of their early programs was to distribute anti-religious material to criticize clerical leaders, who they saw as obstacles to social progress, and to oppose the “enemies of the human race and of society.” Weishaupt wrote: “How can the weak obtain protection? Only by union, but this is rare. Nothing can bring this about but hidden societies. Hidden schools of wisdom are the means which we will one day free men from their bonds...” All members were required to adopt classical names. Weishaupt was called ‘Spartacus’ (who had been the leader of the slave insurrection in ancient Rome). His right-hand man, Xavier von Zwack, a lawyer to Prince von Salm, was known as ‘Cato’; Nicolai, the bookseller, was ‘Lucian’; Professor Westenreider was ‘Pythagoras’; Canon Hertel was ‘Marius’; Marquis di Constanza was ‘Diomedes’; Massenhausen was ‘Ajar’ Baron von Schroeckenstein was ‘Mohomed’; and Baron von Mengenhofen was ‘Sylla.’ Their headquarters was in Munich, Germany, and known as the Grand Lodge of the Illuminati (or Lodge of the Grand Orient)– code-named ‘Athens.’ Among their other four lodges: Ingolstadt was known as ‘Ephesus,’ Heidelberg as ‘Utica,’ Bavaria as ‘Achaia,’ and Frankfurt was known as ‘Thebes.’ The calendar was reconstructed, and the months known by names reminiscent of the Hebrew language: January was known as ‘Dimeh,’ and February as ‘Benmeh,’ etc. They dated their letters according to the Persian Era, named after the king who began to rule in Persia in 632 B.C., Jezdegerd. Their new year began on March 21st, which some sources say is New Years Day for witches. In 1777, Weishaupt joined the Eclectic Masonic lodge ‘Theodore of Good Counsel’ in Munich, and towards the end of 1778, he came up with the idea of merging the Illuminati and the Masons. Zwack became a Mason on November 27, 1778, and working with a brother Mason, Abbé Marotti, he divulged the secret of the

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Order. By the middle of 1779, the Munich Masonic lodge was under the complete influence of the Illuminati. During the first four years, about 60 active members had been recruited by a committee known as the ‘Insinuators,’ and close to 1,000 had become indirectly affiliated with the Order. Soon, three more lodges were established. Few knew the supreme direction of the Order. Only those within the inner circle, known as the ‘Areopagite’ (meaning ‘Tribunal’), were aware of their true purpose. To all others, Weishaupt said that he wanted a one-world government to prevent all future wars. The book World Revolution (by Nesta Webster) stated: “The art of Illuminism lay in enlisting dupes as well as adepts, and by encouraging the dreams of honest visionaries or the schemes of fanatics, by flattering the vanity of ambitious egotists, by working on unbalanced brains, or by playing on such passions as greed and power, to make men of totally divergent aims serve the secret purpose of the sect.” Foolish, naive people, with money to burn, were especially welcomed. Weishaupt wrote: “These good people swell our numbers and fill our money box; set yourselves to work; these gentlemen must be made to nibble at the bait ... But let us beware of telling them our secrets, this sort of people must always be made to believe that the grade they have reached is the last.” Weishaupt explained: “One must speak sometimes in one way, sometimes in another, so that our real purpose should remain impenetrable to our inferiors.” And what was that purpose? It was “nothing less than to win power and riches, to undermine secular or religious government, and to obtain the mastery of the world.” Initiates were told that the Order represented the highest ideals of the Church, that Christ was the first advocator of Illuminism, and his secret mission was to restore to men the original liberty and equality they had lost in the Garden of Eden. Weishaupt said that Christ exhorted his disciples to despise riches in order to prepare the world for the community of goods that would do away with property ownership.

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Weishaupt wrote to Zwack: “The most admirable thing of all is that great Protestant and reformed theologians (Lutherans and Calvinists) who belong to our Order really believe they see in it the true and genuine mind of the Christian religion.” However, when one of Weishaupt’s followers would reach the higher degrees, their secret was revealed: “Behold our secret ... in order to destroy all Christianity, all religion, we have pretended to have the sole true religion ... to deliver one day the human race from all religion.” Women were also enlisted. He wrote: “There is no way of influencing men so powerful, as by means of women. These should therefore be our chief study; we should insinuate ourselves into their good opinion, give them hints of emancipation from the tyranny of public opinion, and of standing up for themselves...” He also wrote: “This sex has a large part of the world in their hands.” Female members were divided into two groups: one group of society women, to give the organization an air of respectability; and the other group “who would help to satisfy those brothers who have a penchant for pleasure.” The Illuminati also used monetary and sex bribery to gain control of men in high places, then blackmailed them with the threat of financial ruin, public exposure, and fear of death. Internal fighting soon developed because of Weishaupt’s thirst for power. Besides that, because only nominal dues were collected, the Order suffered financially. In 1780, a new member, Baron Franz Friedrich Knigge (17521796), was recruited, and given the pseudonym of ‘Philo.’ Knigge was born on October 16, 1752. He studied law at Gottingen, served in the courts of Hesse-Cassel and Weimar, and was a wellknown writer of romance, poetry and philosophy. He joined the Masonic lodge of Strict Observance, which was dedicated to the elimination of the occult sciences, which were widely practiced. Unable to do that, they were forced to accept it. Knigge achieved the rank of Brother Commander, and had the title of Knight of the Swan. He assisted in the establishment of a new Masonic lodge at Hanau. Because of his developing exposure and interest in the occult, magic and alchemy, he joined the Rosicrucians, a secret organization that dated back to the fourteenth century, and reportedly was an occult group who participated in human sacrifice

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rituals. He later renounced alchemy, and devoted his studies to the development of a form of Masonry that would allow man to regain the perfection they once had before the fall of Adam and Eve. His idea was to reform Masonry, and he was going to make these proposals at the Congress of Wilhelmsbad. However, the Marquis of Constanza (known as “one of the most notorious of the Illuminati”) informed him that the Illuminati had already done that. In order to lure him, Weishaupt portrayed the Order as representing the greatest advancement in science, and dedicated to philosophical advancement. Since this fell in line with Knigge’s thinking, he was drawn into the Order. Knigge was definitely a catch, because he had a talent for organization, and soon became the head of the Westphalia Circle. He was instrumental in pushing for a merger between the Masons and the Illuminati. Weishaupt wrote of him: “Philo is the master from whom to take lessons; give me six men of his stamp and with them I will change the face of the Universe ... Philo does more than we all expected, and he is the man who alone will carry it all through.” Knigge was firmly supported by members of the Areopagite, who felt that Weishaupt’s supreme authority should be delegated to others, and they agreed with Knigge’s proposed modifications for the organization. They were adopted on July 9, 1781. Knigge was able to recruit the most effective propagandists, and from 1780 on, the growth of the Order was very rapid because its expansion was facilitated through its affiliation with the Masonic lodges. Their goal was now to achieve their aims by splitting mankind into opposing ideologies, and for them to fight among themselves, thus weakening national governments and organized religion. An understanding was finally reached between the Masons and the Illuminati, and on December 20, 1781, a combined Order was proposed, which would add to the Illuminati organization, the first three degrees of Masonry. It wasn’t until the Congress of Wilhelmsbad from July 16th to August 29th, 1781 (which was attended by Masons, Martinistes, and representatives from other secret organizations from Europe, America and Asia), that the alliance was official. Those at the meeting were put under oath

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not to reveal anything. Comte de Virieu, a Mason from the Martiniste lodge at Lyons, upon his return home, when questioned about the Congress, said: “I will not confide them to you. I can only tell you that all this is very much more serious than you think. The conspiracy which is being woven is so well thought out, that it will be, so to speak, impossible for the Monarchy and the Church to escape it.” He later denounced the Illuminati, and became a devout Catholic. Because of a movement begun by Dohm’s book Upon the Civil Amelioration of the Condition of the Jews in 1781, and a book by Mirabeau in London, a resolution was passed at the Congress to allow Jews into the Lodges. It was obvious that it was done for financial reasons, because the Illuminati moved their headquarters to Frankfurt, Germany, a stronghold of Jewish finance. As the Order spread throughout Germany, money was contributed from such leading Jewish families as the Oppenheimers, Wertheimers, Schusters, Speyers, Sterns, and of course, the Rothschilds. Gerald B. Winrod wrote in his book Adam Weishaupt: A Human Devil that “of the thirty-nine chief sub-leaders of Weishaupt, seventeen were Jews.” Arguments that the Illuminati was solely of Jewish origin, are completely unfounded. THE HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILD No other name has become more synonymous with the Illuminati than the Rothschilds. It is believed that the Rothschild family used the Illuminati as a means to achieving their goal of world-wide financial dominance. Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1743-1812) was born in Frankfurt-on-the-Main in Germany, the son of Moses Amschel Bauer, a banker and goldsmith. Their name was derived from the ‘red shield’ (‘rotschildt’) that hung over the door of their shop, and had been the emblem of revolutionary Jews in Eastern Europe. A few years after his father’s death, he worked as a clerk in a Hanover bank, which was owned by the Oppenheimers. He became a junior partner, and soon left to take over the business started by his father in 1750. He bought and sold rare coins, and later succeeded in buying out several other coin dealers. In 1769, he became a court agent for Prince William IX of Hesse-Kassel, who was the grandson of George II of England,

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a cousin to George III, a nephew of the King of Denmark, and a brother-in-law to the King of Sweden. Soon Rothschild became the middleman for big Frankfurt bankers like the Bethmann Brothers, and Rueppell & Harnier. After expanding his business to antiques, wineries, and the importing of manufactured materials from England, the Rothschild family began to amass a sizable fortune. Prince William inherited his father’s fortune upon his death in 1785, which was the largest private fortune in Europe. Some of this money had come from Great Britain paying for the use of 16,800 Hessian soldiers to stop the revolution in America, because the money was never given to the troops. In 1804, the Rothschilds secretly made loans to the Denmark government, on behalf of Prince William. In June, 1806, when Napoleon’s troops pushed their way into Germany, Prince William fled to Denmark, leaving his money with Mayer Rothschild. History tells us that Rothschild secretly buried William’s ledgers, which revealed the full extent of his wealth, a list of debtors and the interest required from them, and 600,000 pounds ($3,000,000), to keep Napoleon from confiscating it. Buderus von Carlhausen (Carl Buderus), the Treasury official who handled William’s finances, was given ‘power of attorney,’ and he in turn made Rothschild his chief banker, responsible for collecting the interest on the royal loans. Napoleon announced that all debts being paid to Prince William, were to go to the French Treasury, and offered a 25% commission on any debts that he would collect. Rothschild refused. Developing circumstances soon allowed the Rothschilds to formulate a plan which would guarantee them the financial control of Europe, and soon the world. It began with taking advantage of the outcome of the Battle of Waterloo, which was fought at LaBelle-Alliance, seven miles south of Waterloo, which is a suburb of Brussels, Belgium. Early in the battle, Napoleon appeared to be winning, and the first secret military report to London communicated that fact. However, upon reinforcements from the Prussians, under Gebhard Blucher, the tide turned in favor of Wellington. On Sunday, June 18, 1815, Rothworth, a courier of Nathan Rothschild, head of the London branch of the family, was

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on the battlefield, and upon seeing that Napoleon was being beaten, went by horse to Brussels, then to Ostende, and for 2,000 francs, got a sailor to get him to England across stormy seas. When Nathan Rothschild received the news on June 20th, he informed the government, who did not believe him. So, with everyone believing Wellington to be defeated, Rothschild immediately began to sell all of his stock on the English Stock Market. Everyone else followed his lead, and also began selling, causing stocks to plummet to practically nothing. At the last minute, his agents secretly began buying up the stocks at rock-bottom prices. On June 21, at 11 PM, Wellington’s envoy, Major Henry Percy showed up at the War Office with his report that Napoleon had been crushed in a bitter eight hour battle, losing a third of his men. This gave the Rothschild family complete control of the British economy, and forced England to set up a new Bank of England, which Nathan Rothschild controlled. However, that wasn’t the only angle he used to profit from the Battle of Waterloo. Mayer Amschel Rothschild sent some of William’s money to his son Nathan in London, and according to the Jewish Encyclopedia: “Nathan invested it in 800,000 pounds of gold from the East India Company, knowing it would be needed for Wellington’s peninsula campaign. He made no less than four profits: (1) on the sale of Wellington’s paper (which he bought at 50¢ on the dollar); (2) on the sale of gold to Wellington; (3) on its repurchase; and (4) on forwarding it to Portugal. This was the beginning of the great fortune.” After Napoleon’s defeat, Prince William returned to resume his rule. Buderus was made a Baron, and the Rothschilds were the richest bankers in Europe. In 1817, France, in order to get back on their feet again, secured loans from a French banking house in Ouvrard, and from the Baring Brothers in London. The Rothschilds saw their chance to get a firm grip on the French economy, and on October, 1818, Rothschild agents began buying huge amounts of French government bonds, which caused their value to increase. On November 5th, they were dumped on the open market, creating a financial panic as their value declined. Thus, the Rothschilds gained control of France.

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Mayer Rothschild had established banks in England, France, and Germany. His sons, who were made Barons of the Austrian Empire, were set up to continue and expand his banking empire. Amschel Mayer Rothschild (1773-1855, who in 1838 said: “Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.”) was in charge of the bank in Frankfurt, Germany, which was known as M. A. Rothschild and Sons (which closed in 1901, after the deaths of Mayer Karl and his brother, Wilhelm Karl, the sons of Karl Mayer Rothschild). Salomon Mayer Rothschild (1774-1855) was the head of the bank in Vienna, Austria, known as S. M. Rothschild and Sons (which was closed during World War II after the Nazi occupation). Nathan Mayer Rothschild (1777-1836, who once said: “I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply.”) was the head of the bank in London, England, which was known as N. M. Rothschild and Sons (and has occupied the same premises since 1809, at 2 New Court, St. Swithin’s Lane in London, near the Bank of England and Stock Exchange). Karl Mayer Rothschild (1788-1868) was the head of the bank in Naples, Italy (closed in 1861). James Mayer Rothschild (1792-1868) was in charge of the bank in Paris, France, which was known as Messieurs de Rothschild Freres (whose name was changed to La Banque Rothschild in 1967). This was the beginning of the House of Rothschild, which controlled a fortune estimated to be well over $300,000,000. Soon the Rothschilds spanned Europe with railroads, invested in coal and ironworks, financed England’s purchase of the Suez Canal, paid for oil exploration in Russia and the Sahara Desert, financed the czars of Russia, supported Cecil Rhodes’ diamond operations, aided France in creating an empire in Africa, financed the Hapsburg monarchs, and saved the Vatican from bankruptcy. In this country, through their American and European agents, they helped finance Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, Carnegie Steel, and Harriman’s Railroad. Werner Sombart, in his book The Jews and Modern Capitalism, said that from 1820 on, it was the “age of the Rothschild” and concluded that there was “only one power in Europe, and that is Rothschild.” In 1913, the family fortune was estimated to

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be over two billion dollars. After Mayer Rothschild died on September 19, 1812, his will spelled out specific guidelines that were to be maintained by his descendants: 1) All important posts were to be held by only family members, and only male members were to be involved on the business end. The oldest son of the oldest son was to be the head of the family, unless otherwise agreed upon by the rest of the family, as was the case in 1812, when Nathan was appointed as the patriarch. 2) The family was to intermarry with their own first and second cousins, so their fortune could be kept in the family, and to maintain the appearance of a united financial empire. For example, his son James (Jacob) Mayer married the daughter of another son, Salomon Mayer. This rule became less important in later generations as they refocused family goals and married into other fortunes. 3) Rothschild ordered that there was never to be “any public inventory made by the courts, or otherwise, of my estate... Also I forbid any legal action and any publication of the value of the inheritance.” American and British Intelligence have documented evidence that the House of Rothschild, and other International Bankers, have financed both sides of every war, since the American Revolution. Financier Haym Salomon, who supported the patriots during the American Revolution, then later made loans to James Madison, Thomas Jefferson, and James Monroe, was a Rothschild agent. As explained earlier, during the Napoleonic Wars, one branch of the family funded Napoleon, while another financed Great Britain, Germany, and other nations. Their boldest maneuver came prior to the Civil War. The Rothschilds operate out of an area in the heart of London, England, the financial district, which is known as ‘The City,’ or the ‘Square Mile.’ All major British banks have their main offices here, along with branch offices for 385 foreign banks, including 70 from the United States. It is here that you will find the Bank of England, the Stock Exchange, Lloyd’s of London, the Baltic Exchange (shipping contracts), Fleet Street (home of publishing and newspaper interests), the London Commodity Exchange (to

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trade coffee, rubber, sugar and wool), and the London Metal Exchange. It is virtually the financial hub of the world. Positioned on the north bank of the Thames River, covering an area of 677 acres or one square mile (known as the “wealthiest square mile on earth”), it has enjoyed special rights and privileges that enabled them to achieve a certain level of independence since 1191. In 1215, its citizens received a Charter from King John, granting them the right to annually elect a mayor (known as the Lord Mayor), a tradition that continues today. Both E. C. Knuth, in his book Empire of the City, and Des Griffin, in his book Descent into Slavery, stated their belief that ‘The City’ is actually a sovereign state (much like the Vatican), and that since the establishment of the privately owned Bank of England in 1694, ‘The City’ has actually become the last word in the country’s national affairs, with Prime Minister, Cabinet, and Parliament becoming only a front for the real power. According to Knuth, when the queen enters ‘The City,’ she is subservient to the Lord Mayor (under him, is a committee of 12-14 men, known as ‘The Crown’), because this privately-owned corporation is not subject to the Queen, or the Parliament. There seems to be little doubt that the Rothschilds continue to influence the world economy, and it is known that they are squarely behind the movement to unite all the western European nations into a single political entity, which is just another step towards one-world government. FREEMASONRY Freemasons, or Masons, are members of a secret fraternal order known as the Ancient Free and Accepted Masons, whose goals are, supposedly, to promote brotherhood. One of the major sourcebooks of Masonic doctrine is Morals and Dogma of the Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite of Masonry, written in 1871 by Albert Pike, and considered to be the “Masons guide for daily living.” In it, he writes: “Masonry is a search after Light...” According to early Masonic manuscripts, its origins can be traced back to Adam, who was said to be the first Mason. The apron of Masonry allegedly represents the fig leaves worn by Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden. The knowledge received

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by Adam after eating from the forbidden tree, was carried on by his son Seth, and then Nimrod (who was responsible for the Tower of Babel), the great-grandson of Noah. Dr. Albert Mackey (33rd Degree), in writing his Encyclopedia of Freemasonry, referred to the ‘York manuscript, No. 1’ that contained information from a parchment dating back to the year 1560, which identified Babylon as the originator of Masonry. He also cited the Cooke Manuscript (“The Legend of the Craft,” which was written in 1420, and is said to be the second oldest Masonic manuscript), which reveals that Nimrod taught the craft of Masonry to the workers at the Tower of Babel. When God confused their language, these secrets were said to be lost. When King Solomon was building the Temple, it is taught that Freemasonry was revived. Mackey said that the “Masonic Lodges were initially dedicated to King Solomon, because he was our first Most Excellent Grand Master.” However, Martin L. Wagner revealed in An Interpretation of Freemasonry that the “name Solomon is not the Israelitish king. It is the name in form, but different in its meaning. It is a substitute ... a composite, Sol-omon, the names of the sun in Latin, Indian and Egyptian, and is designed to show the unity of several god-ideas in the ancient religions, as well as with those of Freemasonry.” A story recounted in Masonic tradition, has to do with Hiram Abiff, a Syrian Master Mason, known as the architect of Tyre, who was said to be hired by Solomon to build the Temple. He was killed by three Fellow-Crafts, when he would not reveal the secret Masonic word (so they could get Master’s wages in foreign countries), which was engraved on a gold triangle he wore around his neck. Solomon found the triangle, and had it placed in a secret vault under the Temple. Abiff later became a Christ-like figure to the Masons. Mackey said that “Hiram represent(s) a popular Syrian god against whom the champions of Jehovah (the Jews) strove ceaselessly.” Another Mason, Daniel Sickles, correlates him with an Egyptian god, and Pierson’s Traditions of Freemasonry said that he actually represented all of the pagan sun gods, as does Mackey’s Lexicon of Freemasonry. What this does, is to relate the message that it was the sun god who was the builder of the Temple, which makes this Temple symbolic, and not to be confused

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with the Jewish Temple. Pike said in his Morals and Dogma, that the “Temple of Solomon presented a symbolic image of the Universe; and resembled, in its arrangements and furniture, all the temples of the ancient nations that practiced the mysteries.” In ancient Greece, there were organized groups, or guilds (like our unions), such as the ‘Dionysiacs,’ and in Rome, the ‘Collegium Muriorum,’ who built the temples and stadiums. These groups, who were the forerunners of the Masons, were the draftsmen, builders, carpenters, and craftsmen who erected the huge cathedrals, castles, abbeys and churches during the Middle Ages. Because they ‘lodged’ or lived together during the construction, this is where the term ‘masonic lodge’ was originated. The First Grand Lodge of England met at York in 926, where they adopted handsigns and passwords to identify themselves. Their workplace, or Lodges, was where their initiations, rites, rituals and ceremonies took place. Within their inner circles, witchcraft was practiced. In the 13th century, they formed an association, headquartered at Cologne, with Lodges at Strasbourg, Vienna, and Zurich. They called themselves Free Masons, and had ceremonies for initiation. Near the end of the 16th century, people who weren’t builders, were admitted into the fraternity, and were called ‘Accepted’ Masons. They were usually distinguished members of the community, or in short, a source of funding. Becoming more symbolic, the working masons and builders eventually quit, as did the Accepted Masons, who had become disappointed at what the organization really was.

THE BRUTON VAULT Sir Francis Bacon (1561-1626), an English Lord, the son of Elizabeth I, was recognized as the “founder of Free Masonry ... the guiding light of the Rosicrucian Order, the members of which kept the torch of the true universal knowledge, the Secret Doctrine of the Ages, alive during the dark night of the Middle Ages.” Fluent in many languages, it has been believed by some that he was one of the editors of the King James Version of the Bible, as well as the true author of the plays attributed to William Shakespeare. He had been initiated by a secret society of

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intellectuals dedicated to civil and religious freedom. In his book Instauratio Magna, he wrote of a movement to “reorganize the sciences and restore man to the mastery over nature that he was conceived to have lost by the fall of Adam.” Bacon’s novel, New Atlantis, published in 1627, a year after his death, by his secretary William Rawley, represented his vision for a new “Golden Age.” It was about a crew of shipwrecked sailors who arrived on the shores a mysterious, unknown land, whose people had a much higher developed culture and possessed a technology unlike anything they had ever seen. He talked about buildings a half a mile high, flying machines, underwater vehicles, and a government of philosopher-scientists working in behalf of an enlightened group of people who were committed to learning, and a higher level of achievement. Manly Palmer Hall (1901-1990), founder of the Philosophical Research Society in 1934, and one of the foremost experts in the realm of the metaphysical and the occult, authored over 200 books, and in six decades delivered more than 8,000 lectures. In his 1944 book The Secret Destiny of America, he revealed that even though the New Atlantis had been completed, the entire version was never published. He wrote: “The final (unpublished) chapters revealed the entire pattern secret societies had been working on for thousands of years to achieve the ideal commonwealth in the political world.” It included details for nurturing the “New Order of the Ages,” how this long range “Great Plan” would restore mankind to the original state that was intended to reflect the inner philosophical tradition of Freemasonry, and proposed timetables. In The Secret Destiny of America Hall also wrote: “There exists in the world today, and has existed for thousands of years, a body of enlightened humans united in what might be termed, an Order of the Quest. It is composed of those whose intellectual and spiritual perceptions have revealed to them that civilization has a secret destiny ... The outcome of this ‘secret destiny’ is a World Order ruled by a King with supernatural powers. This King was descended of a divine race, that is, he belonged to the Order of the Illumined for those who come to a state of wisdom than belong to a family of heroes– perfected human beings.”

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The full-length version (which included the missing chapters) was taken to Jamestown in 1635 by his descendant Nathaniel Bacon, where it was buried under the altar of the old brick church. In 1676, it was moved to Williamsburg, Virginia, where it was buried “in a great vault beneath the tower center of the first brick church in Bruton Parish.” The current church, known as the Bruton Parish Church (which was declared a National Historic Landmark), was built in 1715, and within the grounds of its graveyard (the site of the original church), and is where the Bruton Vault is located. It is believed by many serious researchers that Sir Francis Bacon faked his death (actually dying in 1684), and constructed the vault with the help of his Wild Goose Club. It is a 10 ft. by 10 ft. brick vault, possibly part of an underground Freemasonry Lodge that is buried 20 ft. deep, and marked by certain strategically placed encoded memorials in the cemetery above. The reason for the Rockefellers making such an investment to restore the town of Colonial Williamsburg, was the prospect of locating the fabled vault, which had three tunnels leading to it from homes in the area. Fortunately, ownership of the grounds remain in the hands of the Page and Bray families. Deposited along with the unabridged copy of the New Atlantis were other secret documents, including ancient writings that had been in the possession of certain secret societies. One such artifact was the ‘Book of Thoth,’ which had been retrieved from a golden box out of an inner sanctuary in an ancient Egyptian temple. Known as the ‘Sacred Torch,’ the most important document ever given to Man, it is believed that anyone who is able to decipher it will have their consciousness enhanced to the point that they will be able to see the invisible Immortals and enter the presence of the Superior Gods. Manley Hall wrote in his book, The Secret Teachings of All Ages that the Book “was lost to the Ancient World with the decay of the Mysteries, but its faithful initiates carried it sealed to another land. The book is still in existence...” The vault also contains instructions, maps, and documents that lead to 144 sacred burial sites of certain forefathers, patriots and early leaders in our country that in turn contain original writings, diaries and documentation that will prove how history

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has been rewritten today to reflect the biased political views of certain leaders in this country. Hall wrote in The Secret Destiny of America: “Not only were the founders of the United States Government Masons, but they received aid from a secret and august body existing in Europe, which helped them to establish this country for a peculiar and particular purpose known only to the initiated few.” Masonry was not always as it appears today. Many early Christian patriots during the foundational period of American history were part of the predominate York Rite, which promoted values, ethics, and brotherhood among its members. It has been reported that true Freemasonry Lodges were established in the cellars of Episcopalian and Presbyterian Churches. It was the Illuminati infiltration of the American Fraternal Lodges by the Jesuit-spawned Scottish Rite that moved through the ranks like a virus to take them over from within. It is believed that the vault also contains a quantity of gold, an original edition of the supposed Bacon-edited King James Bible, inventions that were ahead of its time, and a device that will enable their codes to be deciphered. There is some evidence to indicate that handwritten copies of certain documents were made during the administration of President Washington and hidden at a remote location in Virginia. According to Colin Dyer in his book Symbolism in Craft Masonry, in 1804, Thomas Jefferson (3rd President) was the last person to examine the contents of this vault. It was believed that the contents were removed and placed in a secret location either at the University of Virginia (founded by Jefferson), or the capitol building in Washington, D.C. However, Manley Hall became a leading proponent for the Bruton Vault as being the location of this sacred repository. His quest to protect it from falling into the wrong hands cost him his life, because he was strangled to death by two members of the Skull and Bones Society– Morgan Brandt and Daniel Fritz. Luckily all of his research notes, documents, maps, books, photos, and artifacts relating to 50 years of work on the vault had already been sent to a secret location in Russia. In The Secret Destiny of America Hall wrote: “America’s true destiny will remain a secret as long as great masses of people have

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no knowledge whatsoever that enlightened humanitarians through thousands of years have in their own and succeeding generations remained united on the high purpose of eventually instituting democratic rule throughout the world. It is necessary to know, too, that it was anciently planned that leadership would fall to America– to a nation established on the Northern continent of the Western Hemisphere ... Long before Columbus, they were aware of the existence of the Western hemisphere, and selected it to be the site of the philosophic empire. The American continent was set apart for establishing here a great democratic nation, centuries before the founding fathers and colonists envisioned the Union...” When President Theodore Roosevelt visited the site, and learned of its significance, he vowed to protect it, and out of appreciation, he was honored by having his image placed on Mount Rushmore. David Rockefeller and Queen Elizabeth have shown a particular interest in the vault’s contents. The contents of the Bruton Vault are priceless, and considered so important that it is referred to as the ‘Seventh Seal.’ A group known as Sir Francis Bacon’s Sages of the Seventh Seal have been the driving force behind the movement to uncover the vault. Though there were unsuccessful attempts in 1938 (which did discover the original church foundations) and 1992, they now believe that a spiral staircase exists beneath the pyramid-shaped monument that marks the centuries-old graves of David and Elizabeth Bray, and leads to the vault, which they refer to as a “Freemasonry library.” Armed with new evidence from their continued research, the group has lobbied the Rev. Herman Hollerith IV, rector of the Episcopal Church, to authorize a new, controlled, archeological dig, to raise the vault, so that its contents can be studied, and protected from forces hostile to the information it contains.

THE GROWTH OF THE MASONIC MOVEMENT Inigo Jones (1573-1652) reorganized the Lodges, introducing the Descartes rationalism, and they were now known as the Free and Accepted Masons. Elias Ashmole, a banker, Rosicrucian, and founder of the Oxford Museum, who became a Mason in 1648, established the three basic degrees:

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1) Entered Apprentice 2) Fellow-Craft 3) Master Mason On June 24, 1717, the four lodges in London were united into a Grand Lodge (sometimes called the Grand Mother Lodge) by three members who met at the Apple Tree Tavern, thus beginning the era of modern Freemasonry. Rather than being a guild of stone masons and builders, they altered their philosophy and became a pseudo-religion who “tried to cooperate with the Church so as to be able to work from the inside, rationalize the doctrine of Jesus and empty it gradually of its mystical content. Freemasonry hoped to become a friendly and legal heir to Christianity. They considered logic and the rules of scientific thinking as being the only absolute and permanent element of the human mind.” By 1725, the movement had spread to France. The members of the Grand Lodge of England brought their fraternity to America. In 1730, Daniel Core was appointed Provincial Grand Master of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, after the first lodge was established in Philadelphia. A lodge was established in Boston in 1733. By the time of the American Revolution, there were 100 Masonic lodges. The Masons were firmly entrenched in the eastern colonies, but since 95% of the population identified themselves as Christians, they had to modify their philosophies to include Christian teachings. The Grand Lodge of the United States was established in 1777, which officially cut all ties to their British counterparts. One writer summed up Masonry this way: “Freemasonry has incorporated bits of other systems in its initiations and higher degrees, such as mystery schools, Mithraism, the Egyptian priesthood, the system of the Pythagoreans, Essenes, Cabalists, Druids, the Orders of the Knighthood, Rosicrucians, Arabic secret societies, and the Knights Templar.” Masonry slowly spread throughout the world: France (171825), Ireland (1725-26), Spain (1726-27), Holland (1731), Germany (1730-33), Africa (1735), Scotland (1736), Portugal (1736), Switzerland (1737), Italy (1733-37), Russia (1731-40), Canada (1745), Sweden (1735-48), Prussia (1738-40), Austria (1742), Poland (1784), and Mexico (1825).

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Originally against the Masonic Order, Benjamin Franklin became a Mason in 1731, at the age of 25. He became the Provincial Grand Master of Pennsylvania in 1734, and was the “appointed spokesman” of the secret societies. As ambassador to France, he was honored there at a major Masonic lodge. It is believed that while he was on a diplomatic trip to Paris to seek financing for the Revolution, he was initiated as a member of the Illuminati. George Washington joined the Fredericksburg Lodge #4 in Virginia, in 1752, and when he was elected President in 1789, he was the Grand Master of the Lodge (the highest official). He took his Oath of Office on a Masonic Bible, as did his Vice-President, John Adams, who was also a Mason. This Masonic Bible from the altar of St. Johns Lodge No. 1 in New York City, which was printed in London in 1767, was later used for other Oaths administered to Harding, Eisenhower, Carter, Reagan and Bush. This Masonic Bible has an introductory section that explains that Masonry is not a Christian fraternity, but in fact supports all religions. Eight of the signers of the Declaration of Independence were also members of the Fredericksburg Lodge. Actually, 51 of the 56 signers were believed to be Masons; however, only 8 were known to be members, while another 24 were suspected of being members. It is also believed that 8 to 10 signers of the Articles of Confederation were Masons. There were 9 Masons that signed the Constitution, while 6 others later became members. Other sources have used the figure of 13, while some have said there were as many as 28 members who signed the Constitution. Because of the disagreement between various books and online sources, representing Masonic and non-Masonic sources, it’s easy to see how erroneous information becomes perpetuated as fact and truth. If the Masons can’t even nail down the specifics of their own history, then the only thing we can hope to do, is to produce as accurate of a picture as possible, based on the facts. Among the ranks of the Masons were: Patrick Henry (not all Masonic researchers agree on this), John Hancock, Paul Revere, John Paul Jones, Alexander Hamilton, Benedict Arnold, John Marshall, Samuel Adams, Anthony Wayne, Francis Marion (‘The Swamp Fox’) and Ethan Allen. In the military, 24 of Washington’s Major Generals, and 30 of his 33 Brigadier Generals were Masons

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(another fact that Masonic researchers do not agree on). It was actually the Masons who instigated and carried out the American Revolution. The secrecy of the Masonic lodges allowed the Colonial patriots to meet and discuss strategy. It was commonly believed that the reason for the Revolution was “taxation without representation,” when actually it was because the Parliament in the 1760’s passed a law that no colony could issue its own money. The colonies had to issue bonds, and sell them to the Bank, who would then loan them money. This forced the colonies to pay interest on their money. The Revolution was ignited by the Boston Tea Party, which was planned during a dinner at the Bradlee home. The participants were from the St. Andrew Lodge in Boston, who dressed up as Mohawk Indians, and went aboard the Dartmouth, which was anchored in the harbor, and dumped its load of tea overboard. The British government responded by closing the port, and sending in British troops. Empress Catherine the Great of Russia, who wasn’t controlled by the International Bankers, refused to send in 20,000 Russian troops against the colonists, when asked by King George III of England. The attack unified the colonies against England. The Supreme Council of Scottish Rite Freemasonry was established in Charleston, South Carolina in 1801, because that area was geographically located on the 33rd parallel. They are an extension of French Freemasonry, and considered liberal. In 1755, the Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite of Freemasonry had expanded to 32 degrees, and then they added a 33rd degree. In 1813, the Northern Supreme Council was established, consisting of 15 states, and was headquartered in Boston. They were an extension of English Freemasonry, and are considered conservative. The Supreme Council, which represented the Southern jurisdiction, relocated to Washington, D.C., and covers the remaining 35 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. protectorates. It is considered the Mother Supreme Council of the World. Among the Presidents who have been Masons: Washington, Jefferson (33rd Degree), Madison, Monroe, Jackson, Polk, Buchanan, Andrew Johnson (32nd Degree and Grand Master), Garfield, McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt, Taft, Harding (32nd Degree), Franklin Roosevelt (32nd Degree), Truman (33rd Degree

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and Grand Master), Eisenhower, Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson (1st Degree), Nixon, Ford (33rd Degree), Carter, Reagan (33rd Degree), and George H. W. Bush, Sr. Many State Governors, U.S. Senators and Congressmen are Masons. The Masonic Bible says that “for well over 150 years, the destiny of this country has been determined largely by men who were members of the Masonic fraternity.” There is about 16,000 Blue or Symbolic Lodges, with a Grand Lodge in every state, which represent more than four million members. There are 150 Grand Lodges in the world, and a worldwide membership of over 6,000,000. Members must be 21 years old; however, sons of members can be initiated at 18. Before consideration, an initiate must prove themselves to be “mentally and physically competent, of good moral character, and believe in the existence of a Supreme Being.” Among their affiliated organizations: The Order of Demolay, The Order of Rainbow for Girls, and The Order of Job’s Daughters, which allow children as young as 11 to become indoctrinated in Masonic teaching. The Order of the Eastern Star, Ancient Arabic Order of Nobles of the Mystic Shrine, and Daughters of the Nile are organizations closely aligned with the Masons. Their literature claims that “Freemasonry is not a religion even though it is a religion in character ... does not pretend to take the place of religion nor serve as a substitute for the religious beliefs of its members ... (and) accepts men, found to be worthy, regardless of religious convictions.” They claim that they exist “to make good men better through its firm belief in the Fatherhood of God, the Brotherhood of Man (and) consists of men bound together by bonds of Brotherly Love and Affection.”

EXAMINING MASONIC TRADITION Any organization which strives to adhere to such a high moral standard certainly should deserve our admiration and respect. However, why have they elicited the criticism that they have? The Vatican has issued many Edicts condemning Masonry: Pope Clement XII in 1738, Pope Benedict XIV in 1751, Pope Plus VII in 1821, Pope Leo XII in 1825, Pope Plus VIII in 1829, Pope Gregory XVI in 1832, Pope Plus IX in 1846 and 1873, and Pope

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Leo XIII in 1884 and 1892. Pope Leo XXIII said that the goal of the Masons was the “overthrow of the whole religious, political and social order based on Christian institutions and the establishment of a state of things based on pure naturalism.” Until 1974, the Roman Catholic Church had forbidden its members to be Masons, and on March 21, 1981, the Vatican warned that “all Roman Catholics who belong to Masonic lodges risk excommunication.” In 1784, and again in 1845, the Bavarian government considered Masonry a danger to the state. In 1814, The Regency of Milan and Governor of Venice echoed these same sentiments. King John VI of Portugal issued orders in 1816, and again in 1824, prohibiting the operation of the fraternity. In Russia, in 1820, Alexander I banished the Order. Many writers in the late 1800’s, such as Archbishop Meurin and Dr. Bataille, said that Masonry was just a cover organization for Satan worship, which occurred within its higher degrees, and was unknown to the ordinary member. In 1921, Dr. James Anderson wrote a booklet on Freemasonry called The Anderson Constitution in which he wrote: “Freemasonry rapidly expanded in Europe. In France, a number of the Masonic sects dabbled with magic and occultism. In Germany some were called Order of the Gold, and Rosy Cross (or Rosicrucians). In England, during the 1880’s, the famous magical society, the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn adopted most of the Masonic grades.” Many Druid ceremonies and witchcraft rites have been incorporated into Masonic rituals. So, are the Masons a Christian organization? The answer is a resounding No! Their literature claims that Jesus was just a man, equal to Mohammed and Krishna, the Hindu god. He is called the “son of Joseph,” not the Son of God. Initiates are told that Masonic rituals are “based on the Bible,” however in Chase’s Digest of Masonic Law it says that “Masonry has nothing whatever to do with the Bible ... it is not founded upon the Bible, for if it were it would not be Masonry, it would be something else.” Chase said that the Bible is just one of the ‘holy books’ of man, equal to the Koran, Hindu Scriptures and others. Its literal meaning was meant only for the ignorant masses.

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At the end of the initiation for the Royal Arch degree, the initiate has the lost name of ‘God’ whispered to him, which is ‘Jebulon.’ Mackey, in his Encyclopedia of Freemasonry, said that “Freemasonry is not Christianity,” and indicates that this name actually represents a composite of the names of the sun god of three religions: ‘Jah,’ the Syrian form of Jehovah; ‘Eel,’ which is Baal; and ‘On,’ the Egyptian sun god. J. D. Buck (32nd degree) wrote in Mystic Masonry (1925): “The only personal God Freemasonry accepts is humanity in toto ... Humanity therefore is the only personal God that there is.” Their Masonic philosophy is that God is whatever you want him to be and is referred to in general terms as the ‘deity’ and the ‘Great Architect of the Universe,’ but in higher degrees, he is identified as a force of nature, usually the sun. Mackey, in his Masonic Rituals said that the elimination of the name of Jesus, and references to Him, in Bible verses used in rituals are “slight but necessary modifications.” Mackey also wrote in his Lexicon of Freemasonry: “The religion then of Masonry is pure theism on which its different members engraft their particular opinions, but they are not permitted to introduce them into the lodge or to connect their truth or falsehood with the truth of Masonry ... A Christian Mason is not permitted to introduce his own peculiar opinions with regard to Christ’s mediatorial office into the Lodge.” No Masonic prayers in monitors, handbooks and guides, end in Jesus’ name, and if it is discovered that they do, the Grand Lodge of that state will revoke their charter. Edmond Ronayne (a Master Mason), wrote on page 74 of the Masonic Handbook (later revised to eliminate the passage): “When a brother reveals any of our great secrets ... or whenever a minister prays in the name of Christ in any of our assemblies, you must always hold yourself in readiness, if called upon, to cut his throat from ear to ear, pull out his tongue by the roots, and bury his body at the bottom of some lake or pond.” According to Morris in The Freemason’s Monitor (or Webb’s Monitor), which omits any reference to the name of Jesus: “Prayer ... should be of a general character, containing nothing offensive to any class of conscientious brethren.”

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Dr. Norman Vincent Peale (1898-1993), author of The Power of Positive Thinking was a 33rd degree Mason and his name appeared in many Masonic publications. In March, 1991, he was featured in the cover story of The Scottish Rite Journal (formerly known as the New Age magazine), and is quoted as saying that “Masonry became an early and essential part of my success.” On Sunday, February 24, 1991, Peale had told the congregation of Robert Schuller’s Crystal Cathedral in California: “Jesus Christ, Buddha and Krishna are examples of great philosophers who taught how to use mind power.” In May, 1991, at a Dallas, Texas seminar for Christian writers, Dina Donahue, a contributing editor for Guidepost magazine (which Peale founded), said that any submission to the publication can never refer to the deity of Jesus, and claim that He is the only means by which salvation can be achieved. He can only be presented in a historical context as a prophet and philosopher. She said that the reason for this was that “Guidepost is an interfaith magazine, and Dr. Peale does not want to offend those who are not Christians.” In Les Sectes et Societies Secretes published in 1863, Le Couteulx de Canteleu wrote that the goal of the Masonic Order “was, is and will always be the struggle against the Church and the Christian religion...” Joseph Fort Newton wrote in The Builders: “Masonry ... is Religion, a worship in which all good men may unite, that each may share the faith of all ... Where else, except in a Masonic lodge, could men of many religions meet, each praying for all and all for one.” Mackey wrote in his Textbook of Masonic Jurisprudence, that Masonry is “undoubtedly a religious institution”; and also in his Manual of the Lodge, he emphatically states that “Masonry is a religious institution.” Buck wrote in Mystic Masonry that Masonry is “a world wide religion ... Masonry is the universal religion only because and so long as it embraces all religions.” High level Masons believe that Lucifer never fell to earth and that Lucifer is really God, and refer to Jehovah by the name of ‘Adonay,’ saying that he is the god of evil because he forces men to be subservient to his repressive dictates. Masonic books given to handpicked members of the 32nd and 33rd Degrees, say that Jesus was an impostor, and that Lucifer is the true God. The Masons have their own Luciferian based calendar. Where ours is

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based on the years before (B.C.) and after (A.D.) the birth of Christ, theirs counts its years with the suffix A.L. means Anno Lucis or ‘Year of Light (Lucifer).’ In Morals and Dogma, Pike wrote: “Every Masonic lodge is a temple of religion; and its teachings are instruction in religion ... Masonry, like all religions, all the Mysteries, Hermeticism and Alchemy, conceals its secrets from all except the Adepts and Sages, or the Elect, and uses false explanations and misinterpretations of its symbols to mislead ... to conceal the Truth, which it calls Light, from them, and to draw them away from it ... The truth must be kept secret, and the masses need a teaching proportioned to their imperfect reason.” He wrote that “every man’s conception of God must be proportioned to his mental cultivation, and intellectual powers, and moral excellence. God is, as man conceives him, the reflected image of man himself.” The next statement reduces the Masonic philosophy to a single premise. Pike writes: “The true name of Satan, the Kabalists say, is that of Yahweh reversed; for Satan is not a black god ... Lucifer, the Light Bearer! Strange and mysterious name to give to the Spirit of Darkness! Lucifer, the Son of the Morning! Is it he who bears the Light ... Doubt it not!” These various passages should settle any arguments concerning the anti-Christian nature of the Masons. Their role in history seemed to be to act as a diluting factor, to lessen the impact of Christianity through tolerance, and to politically work towards the goals established by the Illuminati.

THE MASONIC ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE The Blue Lodge (Symbolic Lodge of Masonry): 1) Entered Apprentice 2) Fellow-Craft 3) Master Mason Albert Pike explained in Morals & Dogma: “The Blue Degrees are but the outer court or portico of the Temple. Part of the symbols are displayed there to the Initiate, but he is intentionally misled by false interpretations. It is not intended that he shall understand them; but it is intended that he shall imagine he understands them. Their true explication is reserved for the Adepts,

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the Princes of Masonry ... It is well enough for the mass of those called Masons, to imagine that all is contained in the Blue Degrees; and whoso attempts to undeceive them will labor in vain.” Lodge of Perfection (Scottish Rite or Ancient and Accepted Scotch Rite): 4) Secret Master 5) Perfect Master 6) Intimate Secretary 7) Provost and Judge 8) Intendant of the Building 9) Master Elect of Nine 10) Elect of Fifteen 11) Sublime Master Elected (Sublime Knights Elect of the Twelve) 12) Grand Master Architect 13) Master of the Ninth Arch (Knight of the Ninth Arch) 14) Grand Elect Mason Council of Princes of Jerusalem: 15) Knight of the East (Knight of the Sword) 16) Prince of Jerusalem Chapter of Rose-Croix: 17) Knight of the East and West 18) Prince of Rose-Croix (Knight of the Eagle) The Consistory (Council of Kadosh): 19) Grand Pontiff 20) Master Ad Vitam (Grand Master of all Symbolic Lodges) 21) Patriarch Noachite (Prussian Knight) 22) Prince of Libanus (Knight of the Royal Axe) 23) Chief of the Tabernacle 24) Prince of the Tabernacle 25) Knight of the Brazen Serpent 26) Prince of Mercy 27) Commander of the Temple 28) Knight of the Sun (Prince Adept)

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The Mother Supreme Council of the World in Washington, D.C., awards all 33rd Degrees. It is the only degree that can’t be earned– it is conferred “because of outstanding service to others which reflects credit upon the Order.” All Illuminati members are 33rd Degree Masons. Red Masonry or York Rite (or Craft Masonry): All Masons go through the first 3 degrees of the Blue Lodge, and must then decide whether they want to enter either the Scottish or York Rites (Capitular Degrees). • Mark Master • Past Master • Most Excellent Master • Royal Arch Mason (Holy Royal Arch) • Royal Master • Select Master • Super Excellent Master • Order of the Red Cross • Order of the Knights of Malta • Order of Knights Templar THE ILLUMINATI GROWS From Bavaria, the Order of the Illuminati spread into the Upper and Lower Rhenish provinces, Suabia, Franconia, Westphalia, Upper and Lower Saxony; and outside Germany into Austria and Switzerland. Soon they had over 300 members from all walks of life, including students, merchants, doctors, lawyers, judges, professors, civil officers, bankers, and ministers. Some of their more notable members were: the Duke of Orleans, Duke

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Ernst Augustus of Saxe-Weimar-Coburg-Gotha, Prince Charles of Hesse-Cassel, Johann Gottfried von Herder (a philosopher), Count Klemens von Metternich, Catherine II of Russia, Count Gabriel de Mirabeau, Marquis of Constanza (‘Diomedes’), Duke Ferdinand of Brunswick (‘Aaron’), Duke Karl August of Saxe-Weimar, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (a poet), Joseph II of Russia, Christian VII of Denmark, Gustave III of Sweden, and King Poniatowski of Poland. By 1783, there were over 600 members; and by 1784, their membership reached nearly 3,000. By 1786 they had numerous lodges across the various German provinces, Austria, Hungary, England, Scotland, Poland, France, Belgium, Switzerland, Italy, Holland, Spain, Sweden, Russia, Ireland, Africa, and America. By the time of the 3rd Masonic Congress in Frankfurt in 1786, the Illuminati virtually controlled all the Masonic lodges, and at this meeting their goals were stated as: “1) Pantheism for the higher degrees, atheism for the lower degrees and the populace; 2) Communism of goods, women, and general concerns; 3) The destruction of the Church, and all forms of Christianity, and the removal of all existing human governments to make way for a universal republic in which the utopian ideas of complete liberty from existing social, moral, and religious restraint, absolute equality, and social fraternity, should reign.” Students who were members of wealthy families, with international leanings, were recommended for special training in internationalism. Those selected by the Illuminati were given scholarships to attend special schools. Weishaupt wrote: “I propose academies under the direction of the Order. This will secure us the adherence of the Literati. Science shall here be the lure.” He also wrote: “We must acquire the direction of education, of church, management of the professorial chair, and of the pulpit.” Today, there are many such schools. Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth, was educated at an Illuminati school in Gordonstown, Scotland, at the insistence of Lord Louis Mountbattan (who became an admiral after the end of World War II, and had an uncle who was a Rothschild relative). Those trained at such schools were placed behind the scenes as experts and advisors to perpetuate Illuminati goals.

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Weishaupt, worried that his control of the Order was diminishing, argued repeatedly with Knigge. While he preferred to work in secrecy, Knigge wanted to move on to more substantial things. In January, 1783, Knigge wrote in a letter to Zwack: “It is the Jesuitry of Weishaupt that causes all our divisions, it is the despotism that he exercises over men perhaps less rich than himself in imagination, in ruses, in cunning ... I declare that nothing can put me on the same footing with Spartacus as that on which I was a first.” He also wrote: “I abhor treachery and profligacy, and I leave him to blow himself and his Order into the air.” On April 20, 1784, Knigge quit, followed by Baron Bassus (‘Hannibal’), Count Torring, Prince Kreitmaier, and others. In July, Knigge signed an agreement promising to return all documents in his possession, and to keep quiet on what he knew about their plans and activities. Some researchers believe that Knigge had also discovered that Weishaupt was a Satanist. He resumed his work as a writer, later becoming an inspector of schools at Bremen, where he died on May 6, 1796. To insure that the activities of the Order would remain a secret, a warning as to the consequences of betraying the Order was including in the ceremony of initiation. They would point a sword at the initiate and say: “If you are a traitor and a perjurer, learn that all our Brothers are called upon to arm themselves against you. Do not hope to escape or find a place of safety. Wherever you are, shame, remorse, and the rage of our Brothers will pursue you, and torment you to the innermost recesses of your entrails.” In October, 1783, Joseph Utzschneider, a lawyer, who had dropped out of the Order in August, presented to the Duchess Maria Anna, a document which detailed the activities of the Illuminati. He was upset because he had been promoted too slow, and was constantly prodded to prove his loyalty. The Duchess gave the information to the Duke. On June 22, 1784, Duke Karl Theodore Dalberg, the Elector Palatinate of Bavaria, after discovering from the information that the goals of the Illuminati were to “in time rule the world,” by overthrowing all civil government, criticized all secret societies, and groups established without government sanction. On March 2, 1785, he issued a

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proclamation identifying the Illuminati as a branch of the Masons, and ordered that their Lodges be shut down. The government began a war against the Order by initiating judicial inquiries at Ingolstadt. In an attempt to preserve the secrecy of their motives, the Areopagite burned many of their documents, however, the government was able to seize many of their papers when they raided the Lodges. After being replaced at the University in February, Weishaupt fled across the border into Regensburg, finally settling in Gotha, where he found refuge with another Illuminati member, the Duke of Saxe-Gotha. In April, 1785, Utzschneider was able to convince three other members to come forward. They were fellow professors at the Marienburg (Marianen) Academy who had doubts about the validity of the organization’s principles when they discovered that they would receive no mystical powers. They were also disgruntled over Weishaupt’s tyranny. Cossandey, Grunberger, and Renner went before the Court of Inquiry on September 9, 1785, where they supplied valuable information, such as membership lists, and revealed their aims and goals, which they consolidated into the following six points: 1) Abolition of the Monarchy and all ordered government. 2) Abolition of private property. 3) Abolition of inheritance. 4) Abolition of patriotism. 5) Abolition of the family, through the abolition of marriage, all morality, and the institution of communal education for children. 6) Abolition of all religion. The purposes of these six points were to divide the people politically, socially, and economically; to weaken countries and create a one-world government. They testified that “all religion, all love of country and loyalty to sovereigns, were to be annihilated...” The government pardoned all public officials and military leaders who publicly admitted membership. Those who didn’t, and were discovered to be members, lost their rank and standing,

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were removed from office, and openly disgraced and humiliated. Weishaupt was preparing to set his plans into motion for the French Revolution, which was slated to begin in 1789. In July, 1785, he instructed Zwack to put their plans in book form. This book contained a history of the Illuminati, and many of their ideas for expansion and future endeavors. A copy was sent by courier (identified as Jacob Lanze) to Illuminati members in Paris and Silesia. However, after leaving Frankfurt, as the courier rode through Regensburg (another source says it was Ratisbon) on horseback, he was struck by lightning and killed. The authorities found the document and turned it over to the government. Another source indicates the possibility that he may have been murdered, and the documents planted on him. Xavier Zwack (‘Cato’), a government lawyer, and one of the Order’s most prominent leaders, whose name was on Renner’s list, had his house in Landshut illegally searched by the police in October, 1785, and his papers seized. He was dismissed from his position. Many books, documents, papers and correspondence were discovered, including over 200 letters written between Weishaupt and the members of the Areopagite, which dealt with matters of the highest secrecy. The following year, more information was taken from the houses of Baron Bassus and Count Massenhausen (‘Ajar’). Among the confiscated documents, were tables which contained their secret codes and symbols, secret calendar, geographical locations, insignias, ceremonies of initiation, recruiting instructions, statutes, a partial roster of members, and nearly 130 official seals from the government, which were used to counterfeit state documents. Needless to say, all of this information shed more light on the Order, and the danger first realized by the government, had now become a national emergency. In 1786, the government gathered all of the confiscated documents, and published them in a book called Original Writings of the Order and Sect of the Illuminati, which was circulated to every government and crowned head in Europe, including France, to warn them of the impending danger. The leaders of the Order who appeared before the government’s Court of Inquiry, testified that the organization was dedicated to the overthrow of church and state. However, these

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revelations, and the publication of their documents, did little to alert the public, because of their unbelievable claims. New measures were taken by government officials. The leaders of the Order were arrested and formally interrogated, then forced to renounce the Illuminati. The final blow came on August 16, 1787, when Dalberg issued his final proclamation against the Illuminati. Anyone found guilty of recruiting members were to be executed, while those who were recruited, would have their property confiscated and then be deported. Zwack, who was banished, sought sanctuary in the Court of Zweibrucken, where he was later appointed to an official position in the principality of Salm-Kyburg. He contributed to the Illuminati movement in Holland. He was later summoned by Dalberg, as the government tried to deal with the problem of fugitives who might attempt to reorganize the Order. Zwack fled to England. On November 15, 1790, another Edict was announced against the members of the organization. Anyone found to be an active member, was to be put to death. The following year, a list of 91 names of alleged members was compiled. They were hunted down, and banished. This harassment didn’t end until 1799, when Dalberg died. The apparent demise of the Order was taken into stride by its highest members, who continued to operate underground. Weishaupt wrote: “The great care of the Illuminati after the publication of their secret writings was to persuade the whole of Germany that their Order no longer existed, that their adepts had all renounced, not only their mysteries, but as members of a secret society.” Weishaupt had a contingency plan ready, and wrote: “By this plan we shall direct all mankind. In this manner, and by the simplest means, we shall set in motion and in flames. The occupations must be allotted and contrived, that we may in secret, influence all political transactions ... I have considered everything and so prepared it, that if the Order should this day go to ruin, I shall in a year re-establish it more brilliant than ever.” To hide their subversive activities, the highest members of the Order began to masquerade as humanitarians and philanthropists. Weishaupt fled to Switzerland, later returning to Germany, where the Duke of Saxe-Gotha gave him sanctuary. The Order moved

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their headquarters to London, where it began to grow again. Weishaupt told his followers to infiltrate the lodges of Blue Masonry, and to form secret circles within them. Only Masons who proved themselves as Internationalists, and were atheists, were initiated into the Illuminati. THE GERMAN UNION Dr. Charles Frederick Bahrdt (1741-1793), an Illuminati member, Mason, and German theologian, who was the professor of Sacred Philogy at the University of Leipzig, took advantage of the Illuminati’s apparent demise by recruiting several of its members for his so-called ‘German Union’ in 1787. Bahrdt, the son of a minister, called his group the German Union for Rooting Out Superstition and Prejudices and Advancing True Christianity. In 1785, Bahrdt had received an anonymous letter, containing the plans for the German Union, which was signed, “From some Masons, your great admirers.” That same year, he was visited by an Englishman who urged him to establish the Union, promising to link it with the British Masonic structure. In 1787, he received another letter containing more details and organizational details. Bahrdt had done some religious propaganda work for Weishaupt, “to destroy the authority of the Scriptures,” and it was commonly believed that it was Weishaupt who was directing the activities of the organization behind the scenes in order to carry on the goals of the Illuminati. The German Union appeared to be a Reading Society, and one was set up in Zwack’s house in Landshut. Weishaupt wrote: “Next to this, the form of a learned of literary society is best suited to our purpose, and had Freemasonry not existed, this cover would have been employed; and it may be much more than a cover, it may be a power engine in our hands. By establishing reading societies, and subscription libraries, and taking these under our direction, and supplying them through our labors, we may turn the public mind which way we will ... A literary society is the most proper form for the introduction of our Order into any State where we are yet strangers.” They planned about 800 such Reading Rooms. The membership initially consisted of 17 young men, and about five of Bahrdt’s friends. Knigge helped him to

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develop the organizational structure, which was divided into six grades: 1) Adolescent 2) Man 3) Elder 4) Mesopolite 5) Diocesan 6) Superior The ‘Society of the 22’ or the ‘Brotherhood’ was its inner circle. In a pamphlet entitled To All Friends of Reason, Truth and Virtue, Bahrdt wrote that the organization’s purpose was to accomplish the enlightenment of people in order to disseminate religion, remove popular prejudices, root out superstition, and restore liberty to mankind. They planned to have magazines and pamphlets, but by 1788, Bahrdt had sunk over $1,000 into the group, and was spending all of his time working on it. Despite his efforts, they still only had 200 members. Near the end of 1788, Frederick Wilhelm, the King of Prussia, worried about the growth of the organization, had Johann Christian von Wollner, one of his ministers, write an opposing view to Bahrdt’s pamphlet, called the Edict of Religion. Bahrdt responded by anonymously writing another pamphlet of the same name to satirize it. In 1789, a bookseller by the name of Goschen, wrote a pamphlet called More Notes Than Text, on the German Union of XXII, a New Secret Society for the Good of Mankind, in which he revealed that the group was a continuation of the Illuminati. The German Union, which represented Weishaupt’s “corrected system of Illuminism,” never really got off the ground because of its openness, which provoked hostile attacks from the government and members of the clergy. Bahrdt left the group and opened up a tavern known as ‘Bahrdt’s Repose.’ The German Union ceased to exist after he died in 1793. THE FRENCH REVOLUTION The Illuminati had secretly spread to France by 1787 (five years after they had planned), through French orator and revolutionary leader Count Gabriel Victor Riqueti de Mirabeau

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(1749-1791, Order name ‘Leonidas’) who had been indoctrinated by Col. Jacob Mauvillon while he was in Berlin on a secret mission for King Louis XVI of France in 1786. Mirabeau introduced Illuminati principles at the Paris Masonic Lodge of the Amis Reunis (later renamed ‘Philalethes’), and initiated Abbé CharlesMaurice de Talleyrand-Perigord (1754-1838, a court cleric in the House of Bourbon). The most trusted members were brought into the ‘Secret Committee of United Friends’ (it is interesting to note that a group of the same name originated in 1771 as an occult group). The initiations took place at the Illuminati’s Grand Lodge, about 30 miles from Paris, in the Ermenonville mansion owned by the Marquis de Gerardin. The famous impostor Saint Germain (17101780, or 1785) presided over the initiation ceremonies. Germain was believed to be a Portuguese Jew, who was a member of the Philalethes Lodge. He was a Mason, a Rosicrucian, and belonged to several other occult brotherhoods. He spoke Italian, German, English, Spanish, French, Greek, Sanskrit, Arabic, and Chinese. He was said to be the son of Prince Rakoczy of Transylvania; raised by the last Medici, Gian Gastone; and was educated at the University of Siena. He told people that he had lived for centuries, and knew King Solomon. He was arrested in London in 1743 for being a Jacobite spy, and he took credit for establishing Freemasonry in Germany. As an impostor, he posed as Comte Bellamarre, Marquis de Montferrat, and Chevalier Schoening. During the initiation, new members were sworn to “reveal to thy new chief all thou shalt have heard, learned and discovered, and also to seek after and spy into things that might have otherwise escaped thy notice ... (and to) avoid all temptation to betray what thou has now heard. Lightning does not strike so quickly as the dagger which will reach thee wherever thou mayest be.” Count Alessandro de Cagliostro (also known as Giuseppe Balsamo), a Jew from Sicily, who was said to be one of the greatest occult practitioners of all time, was initiated into the Illuminati at Mitau (near Frankfurt) in 1780, in an underground room. He later said, that an iron box filled with papers was opened, and a book taken out. From it, a member read the oath of secrecy,

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which began: “We, Grand Masters of Templars...” It was written in blood. The book was an outline of their plans, which included an attack on Rome. He discovered that they had money at their disposal in banks at Amsterdam, Rotterdam, London, Genoa, and Venice. He found out that the Illuminati had 20,000 lodges throughout Europe and America, and that their members served in every European court. Cagliostro was instructed to go to Strasbourg, France, to make the initial contacts necessary for the instigation of the French Revolution. Identified as a Grand Master of the Prieuré de Sion, it is believed that he was the liaison between them and the Illuminati. He was arrested in 1790, in Rome, for revolutionary activities. The French Masons had committed themselves to a plan for overthrowing the government, under the guise of liberty and equality; ending the autocratic regimes, in order to have government by and for the people. Jeremy Bentham and William Petty (Earl of Shelburne) planned and directed the French Revolution, then later directed the plot towards America. In 1788, at the request of Mirabeau and Talleyrand, Johann Joachim Christoph Bode (1730-1793, ‘Amelius’), a lawyer at Weimar, and a Mason, was summoned to France. He had been initiated into the Illuminati at the Congress of Wilhelmsbad, and later took over the Order in the absence of Weishaupt. Bode and Baron de Busche (‘Bayard’), a Dutch military officer in the service of the Landgrave of Hesse-Darmstadt, in order to conceal the purpose of their presence in France, said they were there to investigate the influence of the Jesuits on the secret societies. However, the real reason for them being there, was to further the goals of the Illuminati in France. They operated out of the Lodge of the Amis Reunis, changing its name to ‘Philalethes,’ which means, ‘searchers after the truth.’ The Marquis de Luchet, a friend of Mirabeau, wrote in his Essay on the Sect of the Illuminati in January, 1789: “Deluded people. You must understand that there exists a conspiracy in favor of despotism, and against liberty, of incapacity against talent, of vice against virtue, or ignorance against light! ... Every species of error which afflicts the earth, every half-baked idea, every invention serves to fit the doctrines of the Illuminati ... The aim is universal

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domination.” Intellectuals known as ‘encyclopedists’ were instrumental in spreading Illuminati doctrine. Soon other lodges become aligned with the Philalethes, such as the Nine Sisters; the Lodge of Candor, which included members like Laclos, Sillery, D´Aiguillon; the Lameth Brothers, Dr. Guillotine, and Lafayette; and the Propaganda, which was established by Condorcet, Abbé Sieyes, and Rochenfoucault. Revolutionary leaders in France, such as Maximilien Francois Marie Isidore de Robespierre (1758-1794), who was made head of the Revolution by Weishaupt; Marquis Antoine Nicholas Condorcet (1743-1794), philosopher and politician; Duke de la Rochenfoucault; George Jacques Danton (1759-1794); Marquis Marie Joseph de Lafayette (1757-1834), General and statesman; Jerome Petion de Villeneuve (1756-1794), politician; Philippe, Duke of Orleans, Grand Master of French Freemasonry; de Leutre; Fauchet; Cammille Benoit Desmoulins (1760-1794), D´Alembert; Denis Diderot (1713-1784), encyclopedist; and Jean-Francois de la Harpe (1739-1803), critic and playwright, all joined the Illuminati, who had eventually infiltrated all 266 Masonic lodges by 1789, even though the Masons weren’t aware of it. The Illuminati created situations in order to create dissention among the people. For instance, the Duke of Orleans instructed his agents to buy up as much grain as they could, then the people were led to believe that the King intentionally caused the shortage, and that the French people were starving. Fellow conspirators in the government helped create runaway inflation. Thus the people were manipulated into turning against a king whose reign had strengthened the middle class. The monarchy was to be destroyed, and the middle class oppressed. God was to be replaced by the Illuminati’s religion of reason that “man’s mind would solve man’s problems.” During the first two years of the French Revolution, which started in April, 1789, the Illuminati had infiltrated the Masonic Lodges to such an extent, that they had ceased operation, and instead rallied under the name, “The French Revolutionary Club.” When they needed a larger meeting place, they used the hall of the Jacobin’s Convent. This revolutionary group of 1300 people emerged on July 14, 1789 as the Jacobin Club. The Illuminati

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controlled the Club, and were directly responsible for fermenting the activities which developed into the French Revolution. Lord Acton wrote: “The appalling thing in the French Revolution is not the tumult but the design. Through all the fire and smoke, we perceived the evidence of calculating organization. The managers remain studiously concealed and masked; but there is no doubt about their presence from the first.” In the playing out of a plan which called for the population to be cut down by one-third to one-half, over 300,000 people died, including the execution of King Louis and his family. This was done to insure the stability of the new French Republic. In August, 1792, after the overthrow of the government, the tri-colored banner was replaced by the red flag of social revolution, while the cry of “Vive notre roi d´Orleans” gave way to the Masonic watchword, “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity!” Those who responded with the proper Masonic handsigns, had their lives spared. By November, 1793, as the massacres had spread all over France, the churches had been reorganized along the lines of Weishaupt’s contention that “reason should be the only code of man.” Talleyrand, who became the bishop of Autin in 1788, because of his radical reorganization of the Church, was excommunicated by the Pope. He became a deputy to the National Assembly. The Jacobins controlled the National Assembly, and for all intents and purposes, Mirabeau became France’s leader. In true Democratic spirit, he said: “We must flatter the people by gratuitous justice, promise them a great diminution in taxes and a more equal division, more extension in fortunes, and less humiliation. These fantasies will fanaticize the people, who will flatten all resistance.” The Revolution was considered at an end on July 28, 1794, when Robespierre was guillotined. Thomas Jefferson, who served as minister to France for three years (1785-89), described the events as “so beautiful a revolution” and said that he hoped it would sweep the world. Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton said that Jefferson helped start the French Revolution, and wrote in a letter to a friend, dated May 26, 1792, that Jefferson “drank freely of the French philosophy, in religion, in science, in politics. He came from France in the moment of fermentation, which he had a share in inciting.”

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Jefferson wrote to Brissot de Warville in Philadelphia, in a letter dated May 8, 1793, that he was “eternally attached to the principles of the French Revolution.” In 1987, during a trip to the United States by Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and his wife, where they visited the Jefferson Memorial, she referred to Jefferson as “one of the world’s greatest thinkers.” It is interesting to note, that during the Communist revolution, Nikolai Lenin said: “We, the Bolsheviks, are the Jacobins of the Twentieth Century...” An Illuminist, and member of the revolutionary French National Assembly, Vicomte de Barras, witnessed a 24 year old Napoleon repelling a siege at Toulon in 1793 by English and Spanish military forces. Barras, appointed by the Assembly as the Commander-in-Chief of the French military, in 1795 became a member of the five-man Directorate, which began to govern France, and soon became the most powerful political figure in the country. He chose Napoleon to lead the military forces. However, in 1799, Napoleon (a Knights Templar) broke his ties with Barras, because he feared Barras was attempting to restore the Monarchy. Napoleon eliminated the Directorate, and in 1804, with the support of Talleyrand (who served as his foreign minister), became Emperor. Unwittingly, as a puppet of the Illuminati, his reign brought about the total disruption of Europe, which was needed for the Illuminati to get control and unify it. He ended the Holy Roman Empire, and made his brother Joseph, the King of Naples in 1806. Joseph was replaced by Napoleon’s brother-in-law Murat, when Joseph became the King of Spain in 1808. His brother Louis was made the King of Holland, and another brother Jerome, the King of Westphalia. In 1810, Napoleon confiscated the contents of the Vatican archives, which amounted to 3,000 cases of documents, and took it to Paris. Although most were later returned to Rome, some were kept. By this time, Napoleon had changed the face of Europe, but, he settled his warring ways and ultimately the French Revolution had failed, because Europe had not been fully conquered. The Illuminati immediately took steps to dethrone him, which took five years. In order to get money to Wellington’s English forces, Nathan Rothschild funneled money to his brother James (who handled financial transactions for the French government), in

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Paris, who got it to Wellington’s troops in Spain. In addition, the Illuminati secretly worked to make agreements that shifted national alliances against France. Upon his defeat at Waterloo, Napoleon was again exiled, this time, to the island of Saint Helena in the south Atlantic, which is where he died in 1821. He had written in his will: “I die before my time, killed by the English oligarchy and its hired assassins.” THE ILLUMINATI SPREADS TO AMERICA In 1785, the Columbia Lodge of the Order of the Illuminati was established in New York City. Among its members were Governor DeWitt Clinton, Horace Greeley (politician and editor of the New York Daily Tribune), Charles Dana, and Clinton Roosevelt (the ancestor of Franklin D. Roosevelt). Roosevelt wrote a book called Science of Government Founded on Natural Law, in which he wrote: “There is no God of justice to order things aright on earth, if there be a God, he is a malicious and revengeful being, who created us for misery.” He referred to himself and other members as the “enlightened ones,” and said that the U.S. Constitution was a “leaky vessel” which was “hastily put together when we left the British flag,” and therefore needed revision. In 1786, a lodge was started in Portsmouth, Virginia, where allegedly, Thomas Jefferson was a member; followed by fourteen others in different cities of the thirteen colonies. On July 19, 1789, David Pappin, President of Harvard University, issued a warning to the graduating class, concerning the Illuminati’s influence on American politics and religion. In April, 1793, France sent new ambassador Edmond Genet to America, so he could collect payment for the American debt incurred during the American Revolution. The money was to be used to finance France’s war with England. However, his real reason for being here, was to gain political favor for France, and spread Illuminism, which he did, through the establishment of ‘Democratic Clubs.’ Washington said “they would shake the government to its foundations,” while John Quincy Adams, oldest son of the 2nd President John Adams, who became our 6th President in 1825, said that these clubs were “so perfectly affiliated with the Parisian

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Jacobins that their origin from a common parent cannot possibly be mistaken.” Because of the Illuminati threat, Washington and Adams lobbied Congress to pass the Alien and Sedition Act, which was “designed to protect the United States from the extensive French Jacobin conspiracy, paid agents of which were even in high places in the government.” In a letter from Adams to Jefferson, dated June 30, 1813, he wrote: “You certainly never felt the terrorism excited by Genet, in 1793 ... when ten thousand people in the streets of Philadelphia, day after day threatened to drag Washington out of his house, and effect a revolution ... nothing but (a miracle) ... could have saved the United States from a fatal revolution of government.” Thomas Paine, author and political theorist, helped the Illuminati infiltrate several Masonic lodges. He revealed his loyalty to them when his book The Age of Reason was published in 1794, which dealt with the role of religion in society. Although he believed in God, he could not accept the entire Bible as being fact. A second volume was published in 1796. An unofficial third volume (subtitled: Examination of the Prophecies) also appeared, which seriously questioned the deity and existence of Jesus. In 1937, The Times of London referred to him as “the English Voltaire.” On May 9, 1798, Rev. Jedediah Morse, pastor of the Congregational Church in Charleston, South Carolina preached a sermon at the New North Church in Boston, about the Illuminati: “Practically all of the civil and ecclesiastical establishments of Europe have already been shaken to their foundations by this terrible organization; the French Revolution itself is doubtless to be traced to its machinations; the successes of the French armies are to be explained on the same ground. The Jacobins are nothing more nor less than the open manifestation of the hidden system of the Illuminati. The Order has its branches established and its emissaries at work in America. The affiliated Jacobin Societies in America have doubtless had as the object of their establishment the propagation of the principles of the illuminated mother club in France ... I hold it a duty, my brethren, which I owe to God, to the cause of religion, to my country and to you, at this time, to declare to you, thus honestly and faithfully, these truths. My only aim is to awaken you and myself a due attention, at this

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alarming period, to our dearest interests. As a faithful watchman I would give you warning of your present danger.” Later in July, Timothy Dwight, President of Yale University, told the people of New Haven: “Shall our sons become the disciples of Voltaire (a French writer) and the dragoons of Murat, or our daughters, the concubines of the Illuminati.” To infiltrate the Masonic lodges in Europe, Weishaupt had enlisted the aid of John Robison, who was a long time, high degree Mason in the Scottish Rite, a professor of Natural Philosophy at Edinburgh University in Scotland, a British historian, and Secretary-General to the Royal Society of Edinburgh. When he went to Germany, he was given Weishaupt’s revised conspiracy plans to study, in order to expand the Illuminati’s influence in the British Isles. However, Robison didn’t agree with their principles, and after warning American Masons in 1789, published a book to expose the organization in 1798 called Proofs of a Conspiracy Against All Religions and Governments of Europe, Carried On In the Secret Meetings of Freemasons, Illuminati, and Reading Societies (which presented the Protestant view). He wrote: “I have observed these doctrines gradually diffusing and mixing with all the different systems of Freemasonry till, at last, an association has been formed for the express purpose of rooting out all the religious establishments, and overturning all the existing governments of Europe.” Also, that same year, Abbé Augustin Barruel (French patriot, Jesuit, and 3rd degree Mason) published his Memoires pour servir a l´Histoire du Jacobinisme or Memoirs Illustrating the History of Jacobinism (which presented the Roman Catholic view). Both books sought to warn America about the Illuminati conspiracy, but the warnings were not taken seriously. The January, 1798 edition of the Monthly Magazine contained a letter by Augustus Bottiger, Provost of the College of Weimar, who accused Robison of making inaccurate statements, and said that since 1790, “every concern of the Illuminati has ceased.” Thomas Jefferson, believed to be a member of the Virginia lodge of the Illuminati, and a Mason (who helped the Illuminati to infiltrate the New England Masonic lodges), denied all the allegations, and described Weishaupt as “an enthusiastic

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philanthropist” and called Barruel’s revelations “the ravings of a Bedlamite (Bedlam was the name of a hospital in London for the mentally insane).” During the summer of 1798, Rev. G. W. Snyder, a Lutheran minister, wrote a letter to President Washington and included a copy of Robison’s book, expressing his concern about the Illuminati infiltrating the American Masonic lodges. In Washington’s response, dated September 25, 1798, he wrote: “I have heard much about the nefarious and dangerous plan and doctrines of the Illuminati,” but went on to say that he didn’t believe that they had become involved in the lodges. A subsequent letter by Snyder, requesting a more reassuring answer, resulted in a letter from Washington, dated October 24, 1798, which can be found in The Writings of George Washington (volume 20, page 518, which was prepared under the direction of the U.S. George Washington Bicentennial Commission and published by the U.S. Government Printing Office in 1941). He wrote: “It was not my intention to doubt that the doctrines of the Illuminati and the principles of Jacobinism had not spread in the United States. On the contrary, no one is more satisfied of this fact than I am. The idea I meant to convey, was, that I did not believe that the lodges of Freemasons in this country had, as societies, endeavored to propagate the diabolical tenets of the first, or pernicious principles of the latter. That individuals of them may have done it, or that the founder or instruments employed to have found the democratic societies in the United States may have had this object, and actually had a separation of the people from their government in view, is too evident to be questioned.” Shortly before his death, Washington issued two more warnings about the Illuminati. Around 1807, John Quincy Adams (said to have organized the New England Masonic lodges), who later became President in 1825, wrote three letters to Colonel William C. Stone, a top Mason, telling him that Thomas Jefferson, our 3rd President, and founder of the Democratic Party, was using the Masonic lodges for subversive Illuminati purposes. These letters were allegedly kept

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at the Rittenburg Square Library in Philadelphia, but have mysteriously vanished. Adams also wrote to Washington, saying that Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton were misusing Masonic lodges for Illuminati purposes and the worship of Lucifer (which is recorded in the Adams Chronicles). Benjamin Franklin was also accused of being a member of the Illuminati, but there is no concrete proof of this. Jefferson seemed to be the main focus of everyone’s ire. He was accused by the Federalists of being a Jacobin, and an atheist. There is some evidence to indicate that he did use the Democratic Societies and Jacobin Clubs in his 1796 battle with John Adams for the Presidency. The Rev. Jedediah Morse identified Jefferson as “an Illuminatus.” On July 4, 1812, Rev. Joseph Willard (1761-1827), said in a speech in Lancaster, New Hampshire: “There is sufficient evidence that a number of societies, of the Illuminati, have been established in this land of Gospel light and civil liberty, which were first organized from the grand society, in France. They are doubtless secretly striving to undermine all our ancient institutions, civil and sacred. These societies are closely leagued with those of the same Order, in Europe; they have all the same object in view. The enemies of all order are seeking our ruin. Should infidelity generally prevail, our independence would fall of course. Our republican government would be annihilated...” It has been suggested, that one of the reasons that the British looted and burned Washington in 1812, was to destroy secret documents that would have exposed the treason against the United States, by various people highly placed within the government. When those advocating a strong central government organized the Federalist Party in 1791, the Anti-Federalists, who favored states’ rights, and were against Alexander Hamilton’s (Secretary of Treasury under Washington, 1789-1795) fiscal policies, which they felt benefited the wealthy, rallied under Thomas Jefferson, Washington’s first Secretary of State (1789-93). They became an organized political party after the Constitutional Convention in 1787, led by New York Governor George Clinton (who was later Vice-President under Jefferson and Madison), Patrick Henry of Virginia, and Elbridge Gerry of Massachusetts (a signer of the Declaration of Independence). The Anti-Federalists were made

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up of the low class, farmers, and paper money advocates, who strongly opposed a strong central government as set forth in the U.S. Constitution of 1789, and succeeded in getting the Bill of Rights added. They were against a single, national government, upper class rule, and a weak program for the separation of powers. The Jeffersonian Republicans, so named because of the antimonarchy views of the Anti-Federalists, had power from 18011825. In 1796, the party split into the Democratic-Republicans, organized by New York State Senator Martin Van Buren (who became our 8th President, 1837-41), who concerned themselves with states’ rights, farmers’ interests and democratic procedures; and the National Republicans, led by John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay, and Daniel Webster, who merged with the Federalists in 1820. In 1826, the Democratic-Republicans became known as just plain Democrats, while the National Republicans became identified as only Republicans in 1854. That is how the two-party system was created in this country. PHI BETA KAPPA The fraternity known as Phi-Beta-Kappa was organized in 1776 by students at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia (the second oldest in the country, founded in 1694), as a secret debating club. It was later infiltrated, and used to introduce Illuminati principles to America. Their name was derived from their Greek password and motto, ‘Philosophia Biou Kuberuetes,’ which means, ‘Philosophy is the Guide of Life.’ Open only to university students, their goal was to make philosophy, not religion, the guiding principle of man’s actions. They had secret hand signals and handshakes up to 1831, when it was reorganized and changed from a social organization, to an honorary society for upper classmen with high scholastic standing. During the 1700’s, when it looked as through the fraternity would fold, one of its members, Elisha Parmele, received a grant to establish chapters at Yale in 1780 (Yale Professor of History, Gaddis Smith, said: “Yale has influenced the Central Intelligence Agency more than any other university, giving the CIA the atmosphere of a class reunion.”), and at Harvard in 1781. They

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later grew to have chapters on 270 campuses, and with more than 500,000 members. Among their member have been: Tom Brokaw (NBC commentator), Glenn Close (actress), Francis Ford Coppola (noted film director), Henry Kissinger (U.S. Secretary of State, 1973 to 1977; Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, 1969-75), Kris Kristofferson (singer/actor), Dean Rusk (Presidential advisor), Howard K. Smith (ABC commentator), Caspar Weinberger (U.S. Secretary of Defense, 1981-87), John D. Rockefeller, Jr., Nelson Rockefeller, President George H. W. Bush, President Jimmy Carter, President Bill Clinton, President Franklin Roosevelt, President Woodrow Wilson, Gov. Jeb Bush (from Florida), Sen. Joseph Lieberman (from Connecticut), Byron White (Supreme Court Justice), and Elihu Root (Secretary of State, 19051909; served in the U.S. Senate, 1909-1915; was president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1910-1925). To be fair here, I have to say that the inclusion of Phi Beta Kappa is by no means intended to downplay the academic achievements of its thousands of members, or to give the connotation of it being an evil organization. However, its dubious beginnings, and the fact that many people in influential positions have come from their ranks, it certainly is reason enough to take note. But more than that, when you see their membership cross over into other organizations such as the Bilderbergers, Council on Foreign Relations, and Trilateral Commission; then you begin to see it as a possible breeding ground for people who are favorable to the international agenda that is leading to one-world government. SKULL AND BONES The Skull and Bones organization was founded at Yale University in 1832 by General William Huntington Russell (who later served in the Connecticut State legislature 1846-47) and Alphonso Taft (U.S. Secretary of War in 1876, Attorney General 1886-87, U.S. Minister to Austria 1882-84, U.S. Ambassador to Russia 1884-85, and the father of former president William Howard Taft); and incorporated in 1856 by Russell and Daniel Colt Gilman, under the name ‘The Russell Trust Association.’ Russell had visited

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Germany that year, where he was exposed to the Illuminati, and possibly initiated. He wanted to establish a similar group in America, where their sons could become members of a secret Order that would give them a favored status. It became a black lodge of Freemasonry. In 1873, some Yale students broke into their headquarters, a windowless building called ‘The Tomb’ adjacent to the campus, where they discovered their insignia– the skull and bones, along with some real skulls and bones. They wrote in the Yale newspaper, the Iconoclast: “Year-by-year the deadly evil of the Skull and Bones is growing.” The Russell Trust is endowed by $54 million in alumni grants, and it is the alumni who control the group. Antony C. Sutton, a former Economics professor at Stanford University, wrote a fourvolume series of books on the group, and revealed the names of 30 influential old-line American families who have contributed to its ranks (some of which can trace their lineage back to the 1600’s, when they arrived from England), including Whitney, Lord, Phelps, Wadsworth, Allen, Bundy, Adams, Harriman, Rockefeller, Payne, Davison, and Pratt. Every year, 15 juniors are chosen to be members, and are called ‘Knights.’ Upon graduation, they are called the ‘Patriarchs of the Order.’ Since its inception, over 2500 Yale graduates have been initiated. Its members have assimilated themselves into every area of business and government. Members have included: W. Averell Harriman (governor of New York, and advisor to various Democratic presidents), William P. Bundy (editor of the CFR’s journal Foreign Affairs), J. Hugh Liedtke (co-founder of Pennzoil Oil Corp.), John Kerry (U.S. Senator from Massachusetts), David Boren (U.S. Senator from Oklahoma), William Sloane Coffin (President of SANE/FREEZE, Phi Beta Kappa), William F. Buckley (conservative commentator, editor of the National Review magazine), Gifford Pinchot (father of the environmental movement), Potter Stewart (Supreme Court Justice), William H. Taft (27th President), Archibald MacLeish (founder of UNESCO), Harold Stanley (investment banker, founder of Morgan Stanley), Dean Witter, Jr. (investment banker), Henry Luce (head of Time/ Life magazines), Henry P. Davison (senior partner of Morgan Guaranty Trust), Alfred Cowles (of Cowles Communications),

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Richard Ely Danielson (of the Atlantic Monthly magazine), Winston Lord (Chairman of the CFR, Ambassador to China and assistant Secretary of State in the Clinton administration), Russell Wheeler Davenport (of Fortune magazine), McGeorge Bundy (national security advisor for President John Kennedy), John Sherman Cooper (U.S. Senator from Kentucky), John H. Chafee (U.S. Senator from Rhode Island), Henry Stimson (Secretary of State for President Herbert Hoover), Robert A. Lovett (Secretary of Defense for President Harry Truman), George H. W. Bush. (41st President, Bilderberger, CFR and Trilateral Commission member until 1980), and George W. Bush (43rd President). Nicknamed ‘Bonesmen,’ these establishment elites have become members of the Trilateral Commission and the Council on Foreign Relations, and have achieved high level positions in the Administrations of various Presidents, the Congress, and the government, in various capacities. From these positions, they can use their influence to work towards their common goal of oneworld government. Both the Skull and Bones, and Phi Beta Kappa, are indicative of the way the Illuminati functions. They know that if they can grab, control, and mold young minds, then they will have unwitting pawns to do their bidding, and could be called upon to contribute to their efforts. The early history of the Illuminati was nothing more than a seed that was planted. That is why there was a big emphasis on infiltrating educational institutions with their doctrine. As each class graduated through the educational systems of the world, the more people there were to perpetuate their plans. In time, the Illuminati knew they would have enough of the right people, in the right places, for them to secretly further their goals. CONGRESS OF VIENNA In 1802, Europe was made up of several hundred states, which were dominated by England, Austria, Russia, Prussia and France, which was the most powerful country. In 1804, when Napoleon Bonaparte took over France, his military exploits had led to the complete control of virtually all of Europe. Even today, France has more land than any other country in western Europe. In 1812, when Napoleon moved against Russia; England, Spain and

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Portugal were already at war with France. They were later joined by Sweden, Austria; and in 1813, Prussia joined the coalition to end the siege of Europe, and to “assure its future peace by the re-establishment of a just equilibrium of the powers.” In 1814, the coalition defeated France, and in March of that year, marched into Paris. France’s borders were returned to their original 1792 location, which had been established by the First Peace of Paris, and Napoleon was exiled to Elba, a small island off the Tucson coast of Italy. After the Napoleonic Wars, the Illuminati thought the world would be tired of fighting, and would accept any solution to have peace. Through the Congress of Vienna (1814-15), the Rothschilds hoped to create a sort of League of Nations. From September, 1814 to June, 1815, the four powers of the allied coalition, winners of the Napoleonic Wars, met at the Congress of Vienna, along with a large number of rulers and officials representing smaller states. It was the biggest political meeting in European history. Representing England, was Lord Robert Stewart, the 2nd Viscount Castlereagh; France, with Foreign Minister Charles-Maurice Talleyrand de Perigord; Prussia, with King Friedrich Wilhelm III; and Austria, with Emperor Franz II. Other representatives were: Frederick VI, King of Denmark; Maximilian Joseph, King of Bavaria; Friedrich I, King of Wurttemburg; Napoleon II, King of Rome; Eugene de Beauharnais, Viceroy of Italy; King Friedrich August I of Saxony; Count Lowenhielm of Sweden; Cardinal Consalvi of the Papal States; Grand Duke Charles of Baden; Elector William of Hesse; Grand Duke George of Hesse-Darmstadt; Karl August, Duke of Weimar; the King of Bohemia; the King of Hungary; and emissaries from Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Holland, and other European States. The main concern of the Congress was to redistribute conquered territories, create a balance of power, restore the preNapoleonic order through King Louis XVIII, return the power to families who were ruling in 1789, and to return the Roman Catholic Church to its former power. Discussion revolved around the creation of a Federation of Europe that would establish a group of independent kingdoms which would be tied together through an administrative governing body that would, among other things,

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provide military defense. In their plan, Switzerland was made a neutral state that served as a repository for their finances. In March, 1815, Napoleon left Elba, because the pension promised him by King Louis XVIII was discontinued, and he believed that Austria was preventing his companion, Marie Louise, and his son, the former King of Rome (who became the Duke of Reichstadt in Vienna) from being able to join him. Plus, he was made aware of the growing discontent with the King. Thus Napoleon returned, began the Hundred Days War, and was immediately labeled a “public enemy.” The coalition at the Congress put aside their diplomatic business, and joined in the battle. Shortly before Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo, negotiations at the Congress of Vienna were completed, and the treaty was signed on June 9, 1815. The Second Peace of Paris, in November, exiled Napoleon to St. Helena, an island 1,000 miles off the African coast, where he died in 1821. The Russian czar saw through the planned European Federation, recognizing it as an Illuminati ploy, and would not go along with it. On September 26, 1815, the Treaty of Holy Alliance was signed by Alexander I of Russia, Francis II of Austria, and Frederick William III of Prussia, while the allies were negotiating the Second Peace of Paris. The Treaty guaranteed the sovereignty of any monarch who would adhere to Christian principles in the affairs of State. The Treaty made them a “true and indissoluble brotherhood.” Alexander claimed he got the idea from a conversation with Castlereagh. Castlereagh later said that the Alliance was a “piece of sublime mysticism and nonsense.” Prussia and Austria claimed they went along with it, out of fear of Russian retaliation. Although the Alliance had no influence on matters, it did indicate to other countries that they had banded together against them, and it succeeded in temporarily crushing Europe’s growing liberal movement. Austrian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Klemens Furst von Metternich, the most influential statesman in Europe, and a Rothschild agent, said that the purpose of his idea for a European Federation was only to preserve the social order, and he was convinced that Alexander was insane.

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In actuality, the reason for the Congress of Vienna, was for the Illuminati to create a Federation, so they would have complete political control over most of the civilized world. Many of the European governments were in debt to the Rothschilds, so they figured they could use that as a bargaining tool. The Illuminati, in their first attempt, had come terrifyingly close to gaining control of the world. The head of the family, Nathan Rothschild, awaited the day that his family would get revenge by destroying the Czar and his family, which they did in 1917. In 1916, the Senate Congressional Record (pg. 6781) reproduced a document known as the “Secret Treaty of Verona” which had been signed in November 22, 1822 by Austria (Metternich), France (Chateaubriand), Prussia (Bernstet), and Russia (Nesselrode); and was partially the reason for the establishment of the Monroe Doctrine. Its purpose was to make some changes to the treaty of the Holy Alliance, and Article One stated: “The high contracting powers, being convinced that the system of representative government is equally as incompatible with the monarchical principles as the maxim of the sovereignty of the people with the divine right, engage mutually, in the most solemn manner, to use all their efforts to put an end to the system of representative governments, in whatever country it may exist in Europe, and to prevent its being introduced where it is not yet known.” Without a doubt, this document represented the intentions of the International bankers as they planned increasing domination over a growing world. THE MASONS SEPARATE THEMSELVES FROM THE ILLUMINATI In 1826, Captain William Morgan, a journalist and stonemason from Batavia, New York, who was a high degree mason in a local Masonic lodge, wrote an exposé of the Masonic Order in a book called Illustrations of Masonry, which revealed many of their secrets concerning the first three degrees. Shortly afterward, he was arrested and charged with stealing and indebtedness, and put in jail. The Illuminati tried him in absentia, convicted him of treason, and ordered five men, led by Richard Howard, an English Illuminist, to execute him. When he was released from jail, he was

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warned about the plot, and he attempted to flee to Canada. Howard caught him at the border, and took him to Fort Niagara, where he was held for a couple of days. The Freemasons that accompanied Howard, carried him off in a boat, and drowned him in the Niagara River. This event was verified by the sworn statement of Avery Allen (said to be on file at the New York City Archives), who heard Howard give a report of the incident at a meeting of the Knights Templar at St. John’s Hall in New York City. One of the three men who carried out the assassination, confessed on his deathbed in 1848. Masonic leaders refused to cooperate with the lengthy investigation, which didn’t get anywhere, since many of the police officers were Masons. The general consensus was that Morgan accidentally drowned himself in Lake Ontario. However, the press, religious leaders, temperance and anti-slavery groups, united to condemn the apparent murder. The murder caused over half of the Masons in the northeastern United States to break off their alignment with the Illuminati. The incident led to the creation of the country’s first third party movement, the Anti-Masonic Party (1826-33) in New York. They wanted to stop the aristocratic conspiracy, and prevent all members of Masonic organizations from public service. Anti-Masonic candidates were elected to the New York Assembly in 1827. A State Convention in Massachusetts in 1828 saw the establishment of a committee “to inquire how far Freemasonry and French Illuminism are connected.” The Committee reported at a meeting at Faneuil Hall in Boston (December 30, 31, and January 1, 1829), and passed the following resolution: “Resolved, on the report of the Committee appointed to inquire how far Freemasonry and French Illuminism are connected, that there is evidence of an intimate connection between the high orders of Masonry and French Illuminism.” A National Convention was held in 1830 in Philadelphia, and another in Baltimore in 1831, where they nominated William Wirt, former U.S. Attorney General (under Monroe and John Quincy Adams, 1817-1829), as a Presidential candidate. They were represented by 116 Anti-Masonic delegates from 13 states. The

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movement caught on mainly in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Even though they won quite a few Congressional seats in 1832, Wirt only carried the State of Vermont, while Andrew Jackson, a Mason, won big. The Party was phased out in 1836, because the anti-slavery movement began to overshadow their activities. They merged with the Whig Party (1834-60) in 1838. The Whig Party later assimilated themselves into the Democratic Party, the Liberty Party (1840-48), the Free Soil Party (1848-54), and the Republican Party. Fifty years after Morgan’s disappearance, Thurlow Weed (17971882), owner of the Rochester Telegraph, and Editor of the influential Albany Evening Journal (from 1830-1863), who helped found the Anti-Masonic Party, published information about Morgan’s death. His grave was discovered in 1881 at Pembroke, in Batavia County, in New York. In the grave was a piece of paper that had the name John Brown written on it. Brown was said to be one of the people involved in the killing. A statue was erected in memory of Morgan in Batavia in 1882. THE ILLUMINATI IN THE UNITED STATES In 1829, the Illuminati held a secret meeting in New York, which was addressed by a British Illuminist named Frances ‘Fanny’ Wright, from Scotland, who was an associate of socialist Robert Dale Owen. She had come to America in 1818, then again in 1824. In 1828, she became the co-editor of the New Harmony Gazette with Owen. In 1829, they moved to New York, and called their publication the Free Enquirer. At the meeting, she spoke of equal rights, atheism, and free love, as she promoted a Women’s Auxiliary of the Illuminati. Those present were told that an international movement of subversives was being developed along the lines of Illuminati principles, who would be used to ferment future wars. They were to be known as ‘communists.’ This movement was to be used to make the idea of a one-world government more appealing by bringing chaos to the world through war and revolution, so the Illuminati could step in to create order. In 1843, poet Heinrich Heine, revealed what he knew about this new group, when he wrote a book called Letece, which was

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a compilation of articles he wrote for the Augsburg Gazette from 1840-1843. A passage from that book read: “Communism is the secret name of this tremendous adversary which the rule of the proletariat, with all that implies, opposes to the existing bourgeois regime ... Communism is nonetheless the dark hero, cast for an enormous if fleeting role in the modern tragedy, and awaiting its cue to enter the stage.” Clinton Roosevelt, Horace Greeley (1811-72, Editor of the New York Tribune which he founded in 1841), and Charles Dana (181997, City Editor on the New York Tribune, and later Editor of the New York Sun), prominent newspaper publishers at that time, were appointed to a committee to raise funds for the project, which was being financed by the Rothschilds. Incidentally, Greeley, because of his ambition for high public office, and his anti-slavery stand, helped organize the Republican Party in 1854. In 1872, he ran for the Presidency, against Ulysses S. Grant, on the Liberal Republican ticket. Grant defeated him 3,597,132 votes to 2,834,125. In 1841, Clinton Roosevelt wrote a book called The Science of Government Founded on Natural Law, which was the blueprint of the conspiracy to eliminate the U.S. Constitution, and to communize the country, based on the principles of Weishaupt. It contained the detailed plan for the New Deal and the National Recovery Act that was implemented 92 years later by his direct descendant Franklin D. Roosevelt. The Illuminati operated through a front organization known as the Locofoco Party (1835-45), which was organized by radical Jacksonian Democrats who were strongly influenced by the Working Man’s Party (1828-30), and had labor support. The Working Man’s Party merged into the Equal Rights Party in 1833, which later developed into the Socialist Party in 1901. The Locofocos got their name when they voted down the endorsed candidate for the Democratic Party Chairman, and the gas lights were turned off by Party regulars during the 1835 meeting in Tammany Hall. The matches they used to light candles, in order to continue the meeting, were called ‘locofocos.’ With their political strength concentrated mainly in the Northeast, their goals were to establish an independent treasury and to enact anti-monopoly legislation. They were absorbed into

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the States’ rights movement of Sen. John C. Calhoun of South Carolina, Sen. Henry Clay of Kentucky, and Sen. Daniel Webster of Massachusetts, who joined with the Jeffersonian Republicans and the Anti-Masonic Party to form the Whig Party, which represented farmers, southern plantation owners, and northeastern business interests. Their main complaint was President Andrew Jackson’s refusal to Charter the Second Bank of the United States. They succeeded in electing Gen. William Henry Harrison and Gen. Zachary Taylor to the Presidency, but were stymied by presidential vetoes when they tried to get their legislative projects passed, especially after the re-establishment of the National Bank. The Whigs later merged with the newly formed Republican Party. THE ILLUMINATI LEADERSHIP CHANGES After Weishaupt died on November 18, 1830, at the age of 82, Giuseppe Mazzini (1805-72), an Italian patriot, and revolutionary leader, was appointed head of the Illuminati in 1834. It was believed that Weishaupt rejoined the Catholic Church with a deathbed repentance. While attending Genoa University, Mazzini became a 33rd degree Mason, and joined a secret organization known as the Carbonari (their stated goal in 1818: “Our final aim is that of Voltaire and of the French Revolution– the complete annihilation of Catholicism, and ultimately all Christianity.”), where he became committed to the cause of Italian unity. In 1831, he was exiled to France, where he founded the ‘Young Societies’ movement, which included Giovane Italia (Young Italy), Young England, etc. This group united those who wanted to achieve unification through force. Mazzini moved to England in 1837, then returned to Italy in 1848 to lead the revolution against the Austrians. Again he was exiled. In the 1850’s, he led more revolutionary activities, and through his actions, Italy became united in 1861, as a single kingdom, rather than the republic envisioned by Mazzini. Mazzini, who became known as the ‘Evil Genius of Italy,’ tried to carry on the activities of the Illuminati through the Alta Vendita Lodge, the highest lodge of the Carbonari. From 1814-48, the group known as the Haute Vente Romaine led the activities of most of Europe’s secret societies. In April,

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1836, the head of the Haute Vente, whose pseudonym was ‘Nubius,’ wrote to ‘Beppo’: “Mazzini behaves too much like a conspirator of melodrama to suit the obscure role we resign ourselves to play until our triumph. Mazzini likes to talk about a great many things, about himself above all. He never ceases writing that he is overthrowing thrones and altars, that he fertilizes the peoples, that he is the prophet of humanitarianism...” In 1860, Mazzini had formed an organization called the ‘Oblonica,’ a name derived from the Latin ‘obelus,’ which means: “I beckon with a spit (dagger).” Within this group, he established an inner circle called the Mafia. About 1,000 AD, after the Normans had driven the Arabs out of Sicily, they established a feudal system. Overseers to guard each feudi were chosen from known criminals. Skirmishes between the Barons were fought by these criminals. Although feudal privileges were abolished in 1812, these overseers retained control of the land through leasing arrangements. It was this band of criminals that Mazzini gave the name ‘Mafia’, which was an acronym for Mazzini, Autorizza, Furti, Incendi, and Avvelengmenti. Known as the Mafiosi, they were authorized by Mazzini to commit thefts, arson and murder. It was this organization that came to America during the 1890’s with the beginning of Italian immigration. In 1859, Albert Pike (1809-1891), a lawyer, and leader of the U.S. Scottish Rite Masonry (who was called the ‘Sovereign Pontiff of Universal Freemasonry,’ the ‘Prophet of Freemasonry’ and the ‘greatest Freemason of the nineteenth century’), who was fascinated with the idea of a one-world government, was chosen to coordinate Illuminati activities in the United States. He said they needed to create a political party that would keep the world fighting, until they could bring peace. Pike said it would be done “with tongue and pen, with all our open and secret influences, with the purse, and if need be, with the sword...” Pike was born on December 29, 1809, in Boston, went to Harvard, then later served as a Brigadier-General in the Confederate Army. He was appointed by the Confederacy to be the Indian Commissioner in order to create an army of Indian warriors. He became Governor of the Indian territory, and

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succeeded in creating an army consisting of Chickasaws, Comanches, Creeks, Cherokees, Miamis, Osages, Kansas, and Choctaws. He became known to them as the “faithful pale-face friend and protector.” The savagery of their attacks caused Jefferson Davis, the President of the Confederacy, to disband the Indian army. After the Civil War, Pike was found guilty of treason and jailed, only to be pardoned by President Andrew Johnson on April 22, 1866, who met with him the next day at the White House. On June 20, 1867, Scottish Rite officials conferred upon Johnson, the 4th - 32nd degrees, and he later went to Boston to dedicate a Masonic Temple. The only monument to a Confederate general in Washington, D.C. was erected in Pike’s honor, and can be found between the Department of Labor building and the Municipal Building, between 3rd and 4th Streets, on D Street, NW. Pike was a genius, able to read and write in 16 different languages. A 33rd degree Mason, he was one of the founding fathers, and head of the Ancient Accepted Scottish Rite of Freemasonry. In 1869, he was a top leader in the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. In 1871, he wrote the 861 page Masonic handbook known as the Morals and Dogma of the Ancient and Accepted Rite of Freemasonry. Pike was said to be a Satanist, who indulged in the occult, and possessed a bracelet he used to summon Lucifer, with whom he had constant communication. He was the Grand Master of a Luciferian group known as the Order of the Palladium (or Sovereign Council of Wisdom), which had been founded in Paris in 1737. Palladism had been brought to Greece from Egypt by Pythagoras in the fifth century, and it was this cult of Satan that was introduced to the inner circle of the Masonic lodges. It was aligned with the Palladium of the Templars. In 1801, Issac Long, a Jew, brought a statue of Baphomet (Satan) to Charleston, South Carolina, where he helped established the Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite. Pike, his successor, changed the name to the New and Reformed Palladian Rite (or Reformed Palladium). The Order contained two degrees: 1) Adelph (or Brother), and 2) Companion of Ulysses (or Companion of Penelope). Pike’s right-hand man was Phileas Walder, from Switzerland, who was a former Lutheran

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minister, a Masonic leader, occultist, and spiritualist. His other closest aids were Gallatin Mackey (a Masonic leader), Longfellow, and Holbrook. Pike, along with Mazzini, Lord Henry Palmerston of England (1784-1865, 33rd degree Mason), and Otto von Bismarck from Germany (33rd Mason, 1815-1898), intended to use the Palladian Rite to create a Satanic umbrella group that would tie all Masonic groups together. Because of Mazzini’s revolutionary activities in Europe, the Illuminati had to again go underground. Pike established Supreme Councils in Charleston, South Carolina; Rome, Italy (led by Mazzini); London, England (led by Palmerston); and Berlin, Germany (led by Bismarck). He set up 23 subordinate councils in strategic places throughout the world, including five Grand Central Directories in Washington, DC (North America), Montevideo (South America), Naples (Europe), Calcutta (Asia), and Mauritius (Africa), which were used to gather information. All of these branches have been the secret headquarters for the Illuminati’s activities ever since. In a letter dated January 22, 1870, Mazzini wrote to Pike: “We must allow all of the federations to continue just as they are, with their systems, their central authorities and diverse modes of correspondence between high grades of the same rite, organized as they are at present, but we must create a super rite, which will remain unknown, to which we will call those Masons of high degree whom we shall select (obviously referring to the New and Reformed Palladian Rite). With regard to our brothers in Masonry, these men must be pledged to the strictest secrecy. Through this supreme rite, we will govern all Freemasonry which will become the one International Center, the more powerful because its direction will be unknown.” In another letter, dated August 15, 1871, Pike wrote to Mazzini: “We shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, the origin of savagery, and of the most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to

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Another part of this letter was discovered in 1949, which graphically outlined plans for three world wars and at least two revolutions. The first world war was to enable communistic atheism to destroy the czarist government in Russia. This was accomplished. The second world war was to begin by pitting Great Britain against Germany, in order to destroy Naziism, and advance the cause of Zionism, so that Israel could become a nation. This was accomplished. After this war, Communism was to be made strong enough to begin taking over weaker governments. In 1945, at the Potsdam Conference between Truman, Churchill, and Stalin, Russia was given a chunk of Europe, and that helped to sweep the tide of Communism into China. The plan also called for a third world war, which is to be ignited by firing up the aggression between the Zionists (Israel) and the Arab world, who will destroy each other, bringing the rest of the world into a final conflict. This conflict will be engineered to produce complete social, political, and economic chaos; out of which will emerge an Illuminaticontrolled world government. According to William Guy Carr, a retired Canadian Naval Commander, in his book Pawns in the Game (he also wrote Red Fog Over America), he said that for a short time this letter had been on display in the British Museum Library in London, where he wrote a copy of it. The British Museum has said that they never had such a letter in their collection. It was later discovered that Carr got the information from a book called The Mystery of Freemasonry Unveiled by Jose Maria Caro y Rodriguez, the Archbishop of Santiago, and the Cardinal of Chile. Some researchers believe the second letter to be fraudulent, and had

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been written much later than the first part, since the word ‘Fascism’ was not used until 1921, and the Arab/Jewish problem did not exist until after the 1917 Balfour Declaration. But then again, if they indeed planned and initiated these events, the document could very well be authentic. After Mazzini’s death on March 11, 1872, Pike appointed Adriano Lemmi (1822-1896, 33rd degree Mason), a banker from Florence, Italy, to run their subversive activities in Europe. Lemmi was a supporter of patriot and revolutionary Giuseppe Garibaldi, and may have been active in the Luciferian Society founded by Pike. On July 14, 1889, Pike issued this statement to the 24 Supreme Councils of the world who were meeting in Paris: “That which we must say to the crowd is: ‘We worship a God, but it is the God one adores without superstition.’ To you, Sovereign Grand Inspectors General (33rd Degree Masons), we say this, that you may repeat it to the Brethren of the 32nd, 31st, and 30th degrees: ‘The Masonic religion should be, by all of us initiates of the high degrees, maintained in the purity of the Luciferian doctrine.’ If Lucifer were not God, would Adonay (or ‘Adonai,’ Hebrew for the word ‘Lord’ which refers to Jehovah, the God of Israel, which they avoided using) whose deeds prove his cruelty, perfidy, and hatred of man, barbarism and repulsion for science, would Adonay and his priests calumniate him? Yes, Lucifer is God, and unfortunately Adonay is also God. For the eternal law is that there is no light without shade, no beauty without ugliness, no white without black, for the absolute can only exist as two Gods: darkness being necessary to light to serve as its foil as the pedestal is necessary to the statue, and the brake to the locomotive... ...Thus, the doctrine of Satanism is a heresy; and the true and pure philosophic religion is the belief in Lucifer, the equal of Adonay; but Lucifer, God of Light and God of Good, is struggling for humanity against Adonay, the God of darkness and evil.”

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9 The Beginning of Monetary Control Napoleon said: “When a government is dependent for money upon the bankers, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes ... financiers are without patriotism and without decency...” Karl Marx said in the Communist Manifesto: “Money plays the largest part in determining the course of history.” The Rothschilds found out early, that when you control the money, you basically control everything else. So, while their political plans were being thwarted, they began to concentrate on tightening their grip on the financial structure of the world. In the mid-1700’s the Colonies were prospering because they were issuing their own money, called Colonial Scrip, which was strictly regulated, and didn’t require the payment of any interest. When the bankers in Great Britain heard this, the British Parliament passed a law prohibiting the currency, forcing them to accept the debt money issued by them. Contrary to what history teaches, the American Revolution was not ignited by a tax on tea. According to Benjamin Franklin, it was because “the conditions were so reversed that the era of prosperity ended.” He said: “The Colonies would gladly have borne the little tax on tea and other matters had it not been the poverty caused by the bad influence of the English bankers on the Parliament, which has caused in the Colonies hatred of England and the Revolutionary War.” In 1787, our new Constitution gave Congress the power to “coin money, (and) regulate the value thereof (Article 1, Section 8).”

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After Great Britain tried to destroy and control the currency of our new country, Congress realized the danger of fiat, or paper money created by law. In 1775, paper money had been issued to finance the war, and independent state legislatures passed laws requiring citizens to accept it as legal tender. Since it was created from nothing, and not backed by any precious metal, inflation developed. By the end of the war, it took 500 paper dollars to get one silver dollar. Our forefathers wrote in Article I, Section 10, of the U.S. Constitution: “No State shall enter into any treaty, alliance or confederation; grant letters of marque and reprisal; coin money; emit bills of credit; make any thing by gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts; pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law impairing the obligation of contracts, or grant any title of nobility.” Alexander Hamilton, an Illuminist, and agent of European bankers, had immigrated to the colonies in 1772 from the British colony of Nevis, on the Leeward Islands in the British West Indies. He married the daughter of Gen. Philip Schuyler, one of the most influential families of New York. In 1789 he was appointed Secretary of the Treasury. Hamilton and Robert Morris successfully convinced the new Congress not to take this power literally, enabling the Bank of North America to be established in 1781, which was similar to the Bank of England. At the time, America had a foreign debt of $12,000 (in money borrowed from Spain, France, Holland, and private interests in Germany), and a domestic debt of $42,000. In 1790, Hamilton, who favored Central Banking, urged the Congress to charter a privately owned company to have the sole responsibility of issuing currency, in order to handle the country’s financial situation. His Plan called for Congress to create a Central Banking system, with a main office in Philadelphia, and smaller branches located in important cities throughout the country. It would be used to deposit government funds and tax collections, and to issue bank notes to increase the money supply needed to finance the country’s growth. This Bank of the United States would have a capital stock plan of $10 million, with 4/5’s to be owned by private investors, and 1/5 by the U.S. Government. It would be administered by a President, and 25 Board of Directors,

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with 20 to be elected by the stockholders, and 5 appointed by the government. Central Banking was initiated by international banker William Paterson in 1691, when he obtained the Charter for the Bank of England, which put the control of England’s money in a privately owned company which had the right to issue notes payable on demand against the security of bank loans to the crown. One of their first transactions was to loan 1.2 million pounds at 8% interest to William of Orange to help the king pay the cost of his war with Louis XIV of France. Paterson said: “The bank hath benefit of interest on all monies which it creates out of nothing.” Reginald McKenna, British Chancellor of the Exchequer (or Treasury), said 230 years later: “The banks can and do create money ... And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of governments and hold in the hollow of their hands the destiny of the people.” Hamilton’s elitist views and real purpose for wanting Central Banking came to light, when he wrote: “All communities divide themselves into the few and the many. The first are rich and wellborn, the other the mass of the people. The people are turbulent and changing; they seldom judge or determine right.” In 1791, Jefferson said: “To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. If we run into such debts, we (will then) be taxed in our meat and our drink, in our necessities and in our comforts, in our labor and in our amusements. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labor of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they (will) be happy.” Even though Thomas Jefferson and James Madison (later to be our 4th President, 1809-17) opposed the Bill, Washington signed it into law on February 25, 1791. Alexander Hamilton became a very rich man. He and Aaron Burr helped establish the Manhattan Co. in New York City, which developed into a very prosperous banking institution. It would later be controlled by the Warburg-Kuhn-Loeb interests, and in 1955 it merged with Rockefeller’s Chase Bank to create the Chase Manhattan Bank. When Jefferson (1801-09) became President, he opposed the bank as being unconstitutional, and when the 20 year charter came up for renewal in 1811, it was denied. Nathan Rothschild,

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head of the family bank in England, had recognized America’s potential, and made loans to a few states, and in fact became the official European banker for the U.S. Government. Because he supported the Bank of the United States, he threatened: “Either the application for renewal of the Charter is granted, or the United States will find itself in a most disastrous war.” He then ordered British troops to “teach these impudent Americans a lesson. Bring them back to Colonial status.” This brought on the War of 1812, our second war with England, which facilitated the rechartering of the Bank of the United States. The war raised our national debt from $45 million to $127 million. Jefferson wrote to James Monroe (who later served as our 5th President, 1817-25) in January, 1815: “The dominion which the banking institutions have obtained over the minds of our citizens ... must be broken, or it will break us.” In 1816, Jefferson wrote to John Tyler (who became our 10th President, 1841-45): “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, and then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their father’s conquered ... I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies ... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the Government, to whom it properly belongs.” On May 10, 1816, President James Madison signed the Bill, which created the second Bank of the United States. Inflation, heavy debt, and the unavailability of an entity to collect taxes, were some of the reasons given for its rechartering. The new charter allowed it to operate another 20 years, raised its capital stock to $35 million, authorized the creation of bank branches, and the issuing of notes with denominations no smaller than $5.00. The new bank now had the power “to control the entire fiscal structure of the country.” The bank was run by the Illuminati, through such international banker ‘front men’ as John Jacob Astor, Stephen Girard, and David Parish (a Rothschild agent for the Vienna branch of the family).

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In 1819, the Bank was declared constitutional by Supreme Court Justice John Marshall (a Mason), who said that Congress had the implied power to create the Bank. People began to see how much power the Bank really had, and the voter backlash led to the election of Andrew Jackson as President in 1828. His slogan was: “Let the people rule.” Jackson maintained: “If Congress has the right under the Constitution to issue paper money, it was given them to be used by themselves, not to be delegated to individuals or to corporations.” Jackson said that the control of a central bank “would be exercised by a few over the political conduct of the many by first acquiring that control over the labor and earnings of the great body of people.” During the 1828 presidential campaign, Jackson said in an address before a group of bankers: “You are a den of vipers. I intend to rout you out and by the Eternal God I will rout you out.” He went on to say: “If the people only understood the rank injustice of our Money and Banking system, there would be a revolution before morning.” Jackson said that if such a Bank would continue to control “our currency, receiving our public monies, and holding thousands of our citizens in dependence, it would be more formidable and dangerous than the naval and military power of the enemy...” After fiscal mismanagement by its first President, former Secretary of the Navy, Captain William Jones, the Bank was forced to call in loans and foreclosed on mortgages, which caused bankruptcy, a price collapse, unemployment and a depression. However, the Bank began to flourish under its new President, financier Nicholas Biddle (1786-1844), who petitioned the Congress for a renewal of the Bank’s Charter in 1832, four years before its current charter expired. The Bill for the new Charter passed the Senate, 28-20, and the House 107-85, and everyone knew how Jackson felt. Biddle threatened: “Should Jackson veto it, I shall veto him!” Jackson did veto the Charter, and abolished the Bank in 1832. He ordered the Secretary of the Treasury to remove all Government deposits from U.S. Banks and deposit them in state banks. On January 8, 1835, Jackson paid off the final installment on our national debt, and it was the only time in history that our national debt was reduced to zero, and we were able to accumulate

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a surplus, $35 million of which was distributed to the States. Nicholas P. Trist, the President’s personal secretary, said: “This is the crowning glory of A.J.’s life and the most important service he has ever rendered his country.” The Boston Post compared it to Christ throwing the money-changers out of the Temple. James K. Polk, the Speaker of the House (who later became the 11th President in 1845) said: “The Bank of the United States has set itself up as a great irresponsible rival power of the government.” The Bank continued to operate until 1836, and it was used by Biddle to wreak havoc upon the economy by reducing loans and increasing the quantity of money. Jackson became the first President of the United States to be censured, which was done in March, 1834, “for removing the government’s deposits from the Bank of the United States without the express authorization of the United States Congress.” It is quite obvious that he did it because of the “abuses and corruptions” of the Bank, and the censure was later reversed by the Senate in 1837. The Bankers continued their attempts to revive the Bank. President John Tyler vetoed two bills in 1841 that would have rechartered the Bank of the United States. In 1837, the Rothschilds sent another one of their agents to America. His name was August Belmont (real name, August Schonberg, a cousin of the Seligman family of Frankfurt, Germany). In 1829, as a 15 year-old, he started working for the bank in Frankfurt, and proved himself to be a financial genius. In 1832, he was promoted to the bank at Naples, so he could be fully integrated into international banking. He became fluent in English, French, and Italian. His mission was to stir up financial trouble within the southern banks. He ran a bank in New York City, and established himself as a leading figure in financial circles by buying government bonds, and later became a financial advisor to the President. In 1857, the Illuminati met in London to decide America’s fate. They had to create an incident which would allow the establishment of a Central Bank, and that had to be a war, since wars are expensive, and governments have to borrow to pay for them. Canada and Mexico weren’t strong enough, as evidenced by Santa Anna’s defeat in Texas the year before; England and

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France were too far away, and Russia wasn’t under their control; so they decided to “divide and conquer,” by fermenting a conflict between the North and the South. The North was to become a British Colony, annexed to Canada, and controlled by Lionel Rothschild; while the South was to be given to Napoleon III of France, and controlled by James Rothschild. In order to begin a movement that would lead to the secession of the South from the Union, the Illuminati used the Knights of the Golden Circle, which had been formed in 1854 by George W. L. Bickley, to spread racial tension from state to state, using slavery as an issue. War-time members included Jefferson Davis, John Wilkes Booth and Jesse James (1847-1882, a Mason, who after stealing gold from banks and mining companies, buried nearly $7 billion of it all over the western states in hopes of funding a second Civil War). The Ku Klux Klan, formed in 1867, were the military arm of the Knights. The states which seceded, united into the Confederate States of America, which meant they maintained their independence, and that if the South would win, each state would be like an independent country. Abraham Lincoln informed the people that “combinations too powerful to be suppressed by the ordinary machinery of peacetime government had assumed control of various southern states.” He had coastal ports blockaded to keep supplies from being shipped in from Europe. The Rothschilds financed the North through emissaries August Belmont, Jay Cooke (who was commissioned to sell bond issues, arranging with Belmont to sell Union bonds in Europe), J. and W. Seligman and Company, and Speyer & Co. Judah P. Benjamin (1811-84) of the law firm of Slidell, Benjamin and Conrad, in Louisiana, was a Rothschild agent, who became Secretary of State for the Confederacy in 1862. His law partner, John Slidell (August Belmont’s wife’s uncle) was the Confederate envoy to France. Slidell’s daughter was married to Baron Frederick D´Erlanger, in Frankfurt, who were related to the Rothschilds, and acted on their behalf. Slidell was the representative of the South who borrowed money from the D´Erlangers to finance the Confederacy. Towards the end of 1861, England sent 8,000 troops to Canada, and in 1862, English, French and Spanish troops landed

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at Vera Cruz, Mexico, supposedly to collect on debts owed them by Mexico. In April, 1861, the Russian Ambassador to America had advised his government: “England will take advantage of the first opportunity to recognize the seceded states and that France will follow her.” On June 10, 1863, French General Elie-Frederic Forey, with the help of 30,000 additional French troops, took over Mexico City, and controlled most of the country. Through his representatives in Paris and London, Czar Alexander II in Russia discovered that the Confederates had offered the states of Louisiana and Texas to Napoleon III, if he would send his troops against the North. Russia had already indicated their support for Lincoln, but wanted something more to send their large navy to defend the country. On January 1, 1863, as a gesture of goodwill, Lincoln issued his Emancipation Proclamation to free the slaves, just as the Czar had done with the serfs in 1861. On September 8, 1863, at the request of President Lincoln and Secretary of State William H. Seward, Alexander sent the Russian fleet to San Francisco and New York, and ordered them “to be ready to fight any power and to take their orders only from Abraham Lincoln.” Lincoln said: “The privilege of creating and issuing money is not only the supreme prerogative of Government, but is the Government’s greatest creative opportunity. By the adoption of these principles, the taxpayers will be saved immense sums of interest.” On February and March, 1862, and March 1863, Lincoln received Congressional approval to borrow $450 million from the people by selling them bonds, or ‘greenbacks,’ to pay for the Civil War. They were not redeemable until 1865, when three could be exchanged for one in silver. They were made full legal tender in 1879. Thus, Lincoln solved America’s monetary crisis without the help of the International Bankers. The London Times later said of Lincoln’s greenbacks: “If that mischievous financial policy which had its origin in the North America Republic during the late war in that country, should become indurated down to a fixture, then that Government will furnish its own money without cost. It will pay off its debts and be without debt. It will become prosperous beyond precedent in the history of the civilized governments of the world. The brains and wealth of all countries will go to North

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America. That government must be destroyed or it will destroy every monarchy on the globe.” Bismarck, the German Chancellor, said in 1876 about Lincoln: “He obtained from Congress the right to borrow from the people by selling to it the ‘bonds’ of States ... and the Government and the nation escaped the plots of the foreign financiers. They understood at once, that the United States would escape their grip. The death of Lincoln was resolved upon.” Before the Lincoln administration, private commercial banks were able to issue paper money called state bank notes, but that ended with the National Banking Act of 1863, which prohibited the states from creating money. A forerunner of the Federal Reserve Act, it began the movement to abolish redeemable currency. A system of private banks was to receive charters from the federal government which would give them the authorization to issue National Bank Notes. This gave banks the power to control the finances and credit of the country, and provided centralized banking, under Federal control, in times of war. The financial panic created by the International Bankers, destroyed 172 State Banks, 177 private banks, 47 savings institutions, 13 loan and trust companies, and 16 mortgage companies. Salmon P. Chase, Secretary of the Treasury (1861-64) under Lincoln, publicly said that his role “in promoting the passage of the National Banking Act was the greatest financial mistake of my life. It has built up a monopoly which affects every interest in the country. It should be repealed, but before that can be accomplished, the people will be arrayed on one side and the bankers on the other, in a contest such as we have never seen before in this country.” Lincoln said: “The money power preys upon the nation in times of peace and conspires against it in times of adversity. It is more despotic than monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, more selfish than bureaucracy. I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. Corporations have been enthroned, an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until the wealth is aggregated in the

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hands of a few and the Republic is destroyed ... I feel at the moment more anxiety for the safety of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war.” On April 14, 1865, Lincoln was shot by John Wilkes Booth, and that same evening, an unsuccessful attempt by his fellow conspirators was made on the life of Seward. In 1866, an attempt was made to assassinate Czar Alexander II, and in 1881, the Czar was killed by an exploding bomb. In Booth’s trunk, coded messages were found, and the key to that code was found among the possessions of Judah Benjamin. Benjamin had fled to England, where he died. It was always known that Lincoln’s death was the result of a massive conspiracy. However, nobody realized how deep and far reaching it was. In 1974, researchers found among the papers of Edwin M. Stanton, Lincoln’s Secretary of War, letters describing the conspiracy coverup that were written to Stanton, or intercepted by him. They also found the 18 pages that were removed from Booth’s diary, which revealed the names of 70 people (some in code) who were directly or indirectly involved in Booth’s original plan to kidnap Lincoln. Besides Stanton’s involvement in the conspiracy, Charles A. Dana, Assistant Secretary of War (and member of the Illuminati); and Major Thomas Eckert, Chief of the War Department’s Telegraph Office, were also involved. Journals and coded papers by Colonel Lafayette C. Baker, Chief of the National Detective Police, detailed Lincoln’s kidnap and assassination conspiracy, and subsequent cover-up. The plot included a group of Maryland farmers; a group of Confederates including Jefferson Davis (President of the Confederacy) and Judah Benjamin (the Confederate Secretary of War and Secretary of State); a group of Northern Banking and Industrial interests, including Jay Cooke (Philadelphia financier), Henry Cooke (Washington, D.C. banker), Thurlow Weed (New York newspaper publisher); and a group of Radical Republicans who didn’t want the south reunited with the North as states, but wanted to control them as military territories, and included Sen. Benjamin Wade of Ohio, Sen. Zachariah Chandler of Michigan, and Sen. John Conness of California. All of these groups pooled their efforts, and used actor John Wilkes Booth, a Confederate patriot. The original plan

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called for the kidnapping of Lincoln, Vice-President Andrew Johnson, and Secretary of State Seward. The National Detective Police discovered their plans, and informed Stanton. Planned for January 18, 1865, the kidnap attempt failed. Captain James William Boyd, a secret agent for the Confederacy, and a prisoner of war in the Old Capitol Prison, was used by the National Detective Police to report on the activities of the prisoners, and to inform on crooked guards. He looked similar to Booth, and ironically, had the same initials. Stanton had him released, and Boyd took over the Northern end of the conspiracy, which had been joined by the Police and the War Department. The North wanted to kill Lincoln, while Booth wanted to kidnap him and use him as leverage to get Confederate prisoners of war released. Booth failed twice in March, and then ended up shooting Lincoln at Ford’s Theater. Boyd, warned that he could get implicated, planned to flee to Maryland. He was blamed for attacking Seward, which he didn’t. Boyd was the one who was shot at Garrett’s farm, and identified as Booth. The Police and Stanton discovered that it was really Boyd, after it was announced to the nation that it was Booth. The only picture taken of Boyd’s dead body was found in Stanton’s collection. The body was taken by Col. Lafayette Baker, to the old Arsenal Penitentiary, where it was buried in an unknown place, under the concrete floor. Baker and Detectives Luther and Andrew Potter, knew the case wasn’t closed, and had to find Booth to keep him from talking. They followed his trail to New York, and later to Canada, England and India. He allegedly faked his death and returned to the United States, where in Enid, Oklahoma, he revealed his true identity on his deathbed. The mortician, who was summoned, instead of burying the corpse, had it preserved, and it is still in existence today. Baker broke off relations with Stanton, who was discharged from the Army and as head of the Secret Service in 1866. In 1867, in his book, The History of the U.S. Secret Service, he admitted delivering Booth’s diary to Stanton, and on another occasion, testified that the diary was intact when it was in his possession. This means that Stanton did remove the pages to facilitate a cover-

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up, because the pages were found in his collection. Andrew Johnson, who became President, issued the Amnesty Proclamation on May 29, 1865, to reunite the country. It stipulated that the South would not be responsible for the debt incurred, that all secession laws were to end, and that slavery was to be abolished. Needless to say, the Rothschilds, who heavily funded the south, lost a lot of money. In addition, the cost of the support of the Russian fleet cost the country about $7.2 million. Johnson didn’t have the constitutional authority to give money to a foreign government, so arrangements were made to purchase Alaska from the Russians in April, 1867. It was labeled as ‘Seward’s Folly’ because it appeared that Seward purchased what was then a worthless piece of land, when in fact it was compensation for the Russian Navy. In August, 1867, Johnson, failed in an attempt to remove Stanton from office, and impeachment proceedings were begun against him in February, 1868, by Stanton and the Radical Republicans. Johnson was charged with attempting to fire Stanton without Senate approval, for treason against Congress, and public language “indecent and unbecoming” as the nation’s leader. Sen. Benjamin F. Wade, President pro tempore of the Senate, next in the line of Presidential succession, was so sure that Johnson would be impeached, that he already had his Cabinet picked. Stanton was to be his Secretary of Treasury. The May 26th vote was 35-19, one short of the necessary two-thirds needed to impeach Johnson. Col. Lafayette Baker, who threatened to reveal the conspiracy, was slowly poisoned till he died in 1868. President James A. Garfield, our 20th President, also realized the danger posed by the bankers and said: “Whoever controls the money of a nation, controls that nation.” He was assassinated in 1881, during the first year of his Presidency. In 1877, in Lampasas County, Texas, a group of farmers formed a group called the Knights of Reliance, who were concerned about the financial power being “concentrated into the hands of a few.” Later renamed the Farmers Alliance, it spread to 120 chapters throughout Texas, and by 1887, the movement stretched up to the Dakotas, and as far east as the Carolinas. By the time 1890 rolled around, this Populist philosophy had succeeded in establishing

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itself, and they had elected governors and congressmen. They advocated a progressive income tax; for railroads, communications, and corporations to be regulated by the Federal government; the right to establish labor unions; and government mediation to stabilize falling commodity prices and the initiation of credit programs. They were against the gold standard, and the country’s private banking system, which was centered at Wall Street. They were impressed with Lincoln’s ‘greenbacks,’ because of its ability to adapt in order to meet the credit needs of the economy. They wanted the money supply to be controlled by their elected representatives, and not the money interests of Wall Street. They created the People’s Party, and ran their own independent presidential candidate in 1892. And in 1896, they hitched their wagon to the campaign of Democrat William Jennings Bryan, who lost to McKinley, effectively ending the Populist movement. This political movement created the initial stirrings for what eventually became the Federal Reserve Act. THE FEDERAL RESERVE ACT The end of the Civil War in 1865 ruined the Illuminati’s chances to control our monetary system, as they did in most European countries. So, the Rothschilds modified their plan for financial takeover. Instead of tearing down from the top, they were going to start at the bottom to disrupt the foundation of our monetary system. The instrument of this destruction was a young immigrant by the name of Jacob Schiff. The Schiff family traced their lineage back to the fourteenth century, and even claimed that King Solomon was an ancestor. Jacob Schiff was born in 1847, in Frankfurt, Germany. His father, Moses Schiff, a rabbi, was a successful stockbroker on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. In 1865, he came to America, and in 1867, formed his own brokerage firm with Henry Budge and Leo Lehmann. After it failed, he went back to Germany, and became manager of the Deutsche Bank in Hamburg, where he met Moritz Warburg (1838-1910), and Abraham Kuhn, who had retired after helping to establish the firm of Kuhn & Loeb in New York. Kuhn and Loeb were German Jews who had come to the United States in the late 1840’s, and pooled their resources during

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the 1850’s to start a store in Lafayette, Indiana, to serve settlers who were on their way to the West. They set up similar stores in Cincinnati and St. Louis. Later, they added pawnbroking and money lending to their business pursuits. In 1867, they established themselves as a well-known banking firm. In 1873, at the age of 26, Jacob Schiff, with the financial backing of the Rothschilds, bought into the Kuhn and Loeb partnership in New York City. He became a full partner in 1875. He became a millionaire by financing railroads, developing a proficiency at railroad management that enabled him to enter into a partnership with Edward Henry Harriman to create the greatest single railroad fortune in the world. He married Solomon Loeb’s oldest daughter, Theresa, and eventually bought out Kuhn’s interest. For all intents and purposes, he was the sole owner of what was now known as Kuhn, Loeb and Company. Sen. Robert L. Owen of Oklahoma indicated that Kuhn, Loeb and Company was a representative of the Rothschilds in the United States. Although John Pierpont Morgan (1837-1913), the top American Rothschild representative, was the head of the American financial world, Schiff was rapidly becoming a major influence by distributing desirable European stock and bond issues during the Industrial Revolution. Besides Edward H. Harriman’s railroad empire, he financed Standard Oil for John D. Rockefeller (18391937), and Andrew Carnegie’s (1835-1919) steel empire. By the turn of the century, Schiff was firmly entrenched in the banking community, and ready to fulfill his role as the point man in the Illuminati’s plan to control our economic system, weaken Christianity, create racial tension, and to recruit members to get them elected to Congress and appointed to various government agencies. In 1636, Miles, John, and James Morgan landed in Massachusetts, leaving their father, William, to carry on the family business of harness-making in England. Joseph Morgan (J. P. Morgan’s grandfather), successful in real estate and business, supported the Bank of the United States. Junius Spencer Morgan (J. P. Morgan’s father), was a partner in the Boston banking firm of J. M. Beebe, Morgan, and Co.; and became a partner in London’s George Peabody and Co., taking it over when Peabody died,

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becoming J. S. Morgan and Co. John Pierpont Morgan, or as he was better known, J. P. Morgan, was born on April 17, 1837. He became his father’s representative in New York in 1860. In 1862, he had his own firm, known as J. Pierpont Morgan and Co. In 1863, he liquidated, and became a partner with Charles H. Dabney (who represented George Peabody and Co.), and established a firm known as Dabney, Morgan and Co. He later teamed up with Anthony J. Drexel (son of the founder of the most influential banking house in Philadelphia), in a firm known as Drexel, Morgan and Co. Morgan also became a partner in Drexel and Co. in Philadelphia. In 1869, Morgan and Drexel met with the Rothschilds in London, and through the Northern Securities Corporation, began consolidating the Rothschild’s power and influence in the United States. Morgan continued the partnership that began when his father acted as a joint agent for the Rothschilds and the U.S. Government. During the Civil War, J. P. Morgan had sold the Union Army defective carbine rifles, and it was this government money that helped build his Guaranty Trust Co. of New York. In 1880, he began financing and reorganizing the railroads. After his father died in 1890, and Drexel died in 1893, the Temporary National Economic Committee revealed that J. P. Morgan held only a 9.1% interest in his own firm. George Whitney owned 1.9%, and H. B. Davison held 1.2%, however, the Charles W. Steele Estate held 36.6%, and Thomas W. Lamont (whose son, Corliss, was an active communist) had 34.2%. Researchers believe that the Illuminati controlled the company through these shares. In 1901, Morgan bought out Andrew Carnegie’s vast steel operation for $500,000,000 to merge the largest steel companies into one big company known as the United States Steel Corporation (in which, for a time, the Rockefellers were major stockholders). A speech by Senator Norris which was printed in the Congressional Record of November 30, 1941, said: “J. P. Morgan, with the assistance and cooperation of a few of the interlocking corporations which reach all over the United States in their influence, controls every railroad in the United States. They control practically every public utility, they control literally thousands of corporations, they control all of the large insurance companies.

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Mr. President, we are gradually reaching a time, if we have not already reached that point, when the business of the country is controlled by men who can be named on the fingers of one hand, because those men control the money of the Nation, and that control is growing at a rapid rate.” The House of Morgan grew larger in 1959, when the Guaranty Trust Co. of New York merged with the J. P. Morgan and Co., to form the Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. They had four branch offices, and foreign offices in London, Paris, Brussels, Frankfurt, Rome, and Tokyo. The firm of Morgan, Stanley, and Co. was also under their control. Paul Moritz Warburg (1868-1932), and his brother Felix (18711937), came to the United States from Frankfurt in 1902, buying into the partnership of Kuhn, Loeb and Co. with the financial backing of the Rothschilds. They had been trained at the family banking house, M. M. Warburg and Co. (run by their father Moritz M. Warburg, 1838-1910), a Rothschild-allied bank in Frankfurt, Hamburg, and Amsterdam, which had been founded in 1798 by their great-grandfather. Paul (said to be worth over $2.5 million when he died), married Nina Loeb, the daughter of Solomon Loeb (the younger sister of Schiff’s wife); while Felix, in March, 1895, married Frieda Schiff, the daughter of Jacob Schiff. Their brother Max (1867-1946), a major financier of the Russian Revolution (who in his capacity as Chief of Intelligence in Germany’s Secret Service, helped Lenin cross Germany into Russia in a sealed train) and later Hitler, ran the Hamburg bank until 1938, when the Nazis took over. The Nazis, who didn’t want the Jews running the banks, changed its name to Brinckmann, Wirtz and Co. After World War II, a cousin, Eric Warburg, returned to head it, and in 1970, its name was changed to M. M. Warburg, Brinckmann, Wirtz and Co. Siegmund Warburg, Eric’s brother, established the banking firm of S. G. Warburg and Co. in London, and by 1956, had taken over the Seligman Brothers’ Bank. The Warburgs are another good example of how the Illuminati controls both sides of a war. While Paul Warburg’s firm of Kuhn, Loeb and Co. (who had five representatives in the U.S. Treasury Department) was in charge of Liberty Loans, which helped finance

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World War I for the United States, his brother Max financed Germany, through M. M. Warburg and Co. Paul and Felix Warburg were men with a mission, sent here by the Rothschilds to lobby for the passing of a central banking law in Congress. Colonel Ely Garrison (the financial advisor to Presidents Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson) wrote in his book Roosevelt, Wilson and the Federal Reserve Act: “Mr. Paul Warburg is the man who got the Federal Reserve Act together after the Aldrich Plan aroused such nationwide resentment and opposition. The mastermind of both plans was Alfred Rothschild of London.” Professor E. R. A. Seligman, head of the Economics Department of Columbia University, wrote in the preface of one of Warburg’s essays on central banking: “The Federal Reserve Act is the work of Mr. (Paul) Warburg more than any other man in the country.” In 1903, Paul Warburg gave Schiff a memo describing the application of the European central banking system to America’s monetary system. Schiff, in turn, gave it to James Stillman, President of the National City Bank in New York City. Warburg had graduated from the University of Hamburg in 1886, and studied English central banking methods, while working in a London brokerage house. In 1891, he studied French banking methods; and from 1892-93, traveled the world to study central banking applications. The bottom line, was that he was the foremost authority in the world on central banking. It is interesting to note, that the fifth plank in the 1848 Communist Manifesto had to do with central banking. In 1906, Frank A. Vanderlip, of the National City Bank, convinced many of New York’s banking establishment, that they needed a banker-controlled central bank, that could serve the nation’s financial system. Up to that time, the House of Morgan had filled that role. Some of the people involved with Morgan were: Walter Burns, Clinton Dawkins, Edward Grenfell, Willard Straight, Thomas Lamont, Dwight Morrow, Nelson Perkins, Russell Leffingwell, Elihu Root, John W. Davis, John Foster Dulles, S. Parker Gilbert, and Paul D. Cravath. The financial panics of 1873, 1884, 1893, 1907, and later 1920, were initiated by Morgan with the intent of pushing for a much stronger banking system.

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On January 6, 1907, the New York Times published an article by Warburg, called “Defects and Needs of Our Banking System,” after which he became the leading exponent of monetary reform. That same year, Jacob Schiff told the New York Chamber of Commerce, that “unless we have a Central Bank with adequate control of credit resources, this country is going to undergo the most severe and far reaching money panic in history.” When Morgan initiated the economic panic in 1907, by circulating rumors that the Knickerbocker Bank and Trust Co. of America was going broke, there was a run on the banks, creating a financial crisis, which began to solidify support for a central banking system. During this panic, Warburg wrote an essay called “A Plan for a Modified Central Bank” which called for a Central Bank, in which 50% would be owned by the government, and 50% by the nation’s banks. In a speech at Columbia University, he quoted Abraham Lincoln, who said in an 1860 Presidential campaign speech: “I believe in a United States Bank.” In 1908, Schiff laid out the final plans to seize the American monetary system. Colonel (an honorary title) Edward Mandell House (1858-1938), the son of British financier Thomas W. House, a Rothschild agent who made his fortune by supplying the south with supplies from France and England during the Civil War, was Schiff’s chief representative and courier; and Bernard Baruch (18701965), whose stock market speculating made him a multimillionaire by the early 1900’s, and whose foreign and domestic policy expertise led Presidents from Wilson to Kennedy to seek his advice; were the two who were relied on heavily by Schiff to carry out his plans. Herbert Lehman was also a close aide to Schiff. President Woodrow Wilson wrote about House (published in The Intimate Papers of Col. House): “Mr. House is my second personality. He is my independent self. His thoughts and mine are one. If I were in his place, I would do just as he suggested ... If anyone thinks he is reflecting my opinion, by whatever action he takes, they are welcome to the conclusion.” George Sylvester Viereck wrote in The Strangest Friendship in History: Woodrow Wilson and Colonel House: “When the Federal Reserve legislation at last assumed definite shape, House was the intermediary between the White House and the financiers.” Schiff, who was known as the

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“unseen guardian angel” of the Federal Reserve Act, said that the U.S. Constitution was the product of 18th century minds, was outdated, and should be “scrapped and rewritten.” In 1908, Sen. Nelson W. Aldrich (father-in-law of John D. Rockefeller, Jr. and grandfather of Nelson and David Rockefeller) proposed a bill, in which banks, in an emergency situation, would issue currency backed by federal, state, and local government bonds, and railroad bonds, which would be equal to 75% of the cash value of the bonds. It was harshly criticized because it didn’t provide a monetary system that would respond to the seasonal demand, and fluctuate with the volume of trade. Aldrich was the most powerful man in Congress, and the Illuminati’s head man in the Senate. A member of Congress for 40 years, 36 of them in the Senate, he was Chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee. In the House of Representatives, Rep. E. B. Vreeland of New York, proposed the Vreeland Bill. After making some compromises with Aldrich, and Speaker of the House Joseph Cannon, at a meeting in a hotel room at the Arlington House, his bill became known as the Vreeland Substitute. It called for the acceptance of asset currency, but only in cases of emergency, and the currency would be based on commercial paper rather than bonds. It passed in the House, 184 -145; but when it got to the Senate, Aldrich moved against it, and pushed for further compromises. The Aldrich-Vreeland Bill, called the Emergency Currency Act, was passed on May 30, 1908, and led to the creation of the National Monetary Commission, which was made up of members of Congress. Now, any monetary legislation sent to Congress, would have to go through this group first. The Bill approved by the National Monetary Commission was known as the Aldrich Bill, and formed the legislative base for the Federal Reserve Act. It was introduced as an amendment to the Republican sponsored Payne-Aldrich Tariff Bill, in order to have Republican support. It was based on Warburg’s plan, except it would only have 15 districts; half of the directors on the district level would be chosen by the banks, a third by the stockholders, and a sixth by the other directors. On the National Board: two chosen by each district; nine chosen by the stockholders; and

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seven ex-officio members to be the Governor, Chairman of the Board, two Deputy Governors, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Commerce and Labor, Secretary of Agriculture, and Comptroller of the Currency. Most people were against the Bill, because it finally identified the banking institution as a central bank, and the Democratic Party opposed it in the 1912 Party platform. Aldrich was appointed as head of the National Monetary Commission, and from 1908-10, at a cost of $300,000, this 16-man committee traveled around Europe to study the central banking system. In 1910, Warburg gave a speech entitled, “A United Reserve Bank of the United States,” which called for a United Reserve Bank to be located in Washington, D.C., having the capital of $100 million. The country would be divided into 20 districts, and the system would be controlled by a Board of Directors, which would be chosen by the banking associations, the stockholders, and the government. Warburg said that the U.S. monetary system wasn’t flexible, and it was unable to compensate for the rise and fall of business demand. As an example, he said, that when wheat was harvested, and merchants didn’t have the cash on hand to buy and store a large supply of grain, the farmers would sell the grain for whatever they could get. This would cause the price of wheat to greatly fluctuate, forcing the farmer to take a loss. Warburg called for the development of commercial paper (paper money) to circulate as currency, which would be issued in standard denominations of uniform sizes. They would be declared by law to be legal tender for the payment of debts and taxes. President Theodore Roosevelt said, concerning the criticism of finding capable men to head the formation of a central bank: “Why not give Mr. (Paul) Warburg the job? He would be the financial boss, and I would be the political boss, and we could run the country together.” After a conference was held at Columbia University on November 12, 1910, the National Monetary Commission published their plan in the December, 1910 issue of their Journal of Political Economy in an article called “Bank Notes and Lending Power.” On November 22, 1910, Aldrich called a meeting of the banking establishment and members of the National Monetary Commission,

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which was proposed by Henry P. Davison (a partner of J. P. Morgan). Aldrich said that he intended to keep them isolated until they had developed a “scientific currency for the United States.” All those summoned to the secret meeting, were members of the Illuminati. They met on a railroad platform in Hoboken, New Jersey, where they chartered a private railroad car owned by Aldrich to Georgia. They were taken by boat, to Jekyll Island, off the coast of Brunswick, Georgia. Jekyll Island is in a group of ten islands, including St. Simons, Tybee, Cumberland, Wassau, Wolf, Blackbeard, Sapelo, Ossabow, and Sea Islands. Jekyll Island was a ‘hideaway resort of the rich,’ purchased in 1888 by J. P. Morgan, Henry Goodyear, Joseph Pulitzer, Edwin and George Gould, Cyrus McCormick, William Rockefeller (John D. Rockefeller’s brother), William K. Vanderbilt, and George F. Baker (who founded Harvard Business School with a gift of $5 million) for $125,000 from Eugene du Bignon, whose family owned it for a century. Up until the time it was converted into a public resort, no uninvited foot ever stepped on its shores. It was said, that when all 100 members of the Jekyll Island Hunting Club sat down for dinner at the clubhouse, it represented a sixth of the world’s wealth. St. Simons Island, a short distance away, to the north, was also owned by Illuminati interests. Those attending the meeting at the private hunting lodge were said to be on a duck-hunting expedition. They were sworn to secrecy, even addressing each other by code names or just by their first names. Details are very sketchy, concerning who attended the meeting, but most scenarios agree that the following people were present: Sen. Aldrich, Frank A. Vanderlip (Vice-President of the Rockefeller owned National City Bank), Henry P. Davison (of the J. P. Morgan and Co.), Abraham Piatt Andrew (Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, an Assistant Professor at Harvard, and Special Assistant to the National Monetary Commission during their European tour), Paul Moritz Warburg (of Kuhn, Loeb and Co.), Benjamin Strong (Vice-President of Morgan’s Bankers Trust Co.), Eugene Meyer (a former partner of Bernard Baruch, and the son of a partner in the Rothschild-owned Lazard Freres, who was the head of the War Finances Corporation, and later gained control of the Washington Post), J. P. Morgan, John D. Rockefeller, Col.

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House, Jacob Schiff, Herbert Lehman (of Lehman Brothers), Bernard Baruch (appointed by President Wilson to be the Chairman of the War Industries Board, which gave him control of all domestic contacts for Allied war materials, which enabled him to make $200 million for himself while working for the government), Joseph Seligman (a leading Jewish financier, who founded J. & W. Seligman and Co., who had helped to float bonds during the Civil War, and were known as ‘World Bankers,’ then later declined President Grant’s offer to serve as the Secretary of Treasury), and Charles D. Norton (President of the First National Bank of New York). About ten days later, they emerged with the groundwork for a central banking system, in the form of, not one, but two versions, to confuse the opposition. The final draft was written by Frank Vanderlip, from Warburg’s notes, and was incorporated into Aldrich’s Bill, in the form of a completed Monetary Commission report, which Aldrich railroaded through Congress by avoiding the term ‘central bank.’ No information was available on this meeting until 1933, when the book The Federal Reserve Act: It’s Origins and Problems, by James L. Laughlin, appeared; and other information, which was supplied by B. C. Forbes, the editor of Forbes Magazine. In 1935, Frank Vanderlip wrote in the Saturday Evening Post: “I do not feel it is any exaggeration to speak of our secret expedition to Jekyll Island as the occasion of the actual conception of what eventually became the Federal Reserve System.” The banker-initiated mini-depressions, the last of which had occurred in 1907, helped get Congressional support for the Bill, and on May 11, 1911, the National Citizens League for the Promotion of a Sound Banking System, an Illuminati frontorganization, publicly announced their support for Aldrich’s Bill. However, the Aldrich Bill was destined for failure, because he was so closely identified with J. P. Morgan. So, the Illuminati went to Plan B, which was the second version hammered out at the Jekyll Island summit. The National Citizens League publicly withdrew their support of the Aldrich Bill, and the move was on to disguise it, so that it could get through Congress. Once the new version was ready, they were a little apprehensive about introducing it in Congress, because even if

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it would be passed by Congress, President Taft would veto it, so they had to wait until they could get their own man elected. That man was Woodrow Wilson. The Democrats, with the exception of Grover Cleveland’s election, had been out of power since 1869. Being a ‘hungry’ Party, the Illuminati found them easier to infiltrate. During the late 1800’s, they began the process of changing the Democrats from conservative to liberal, and the Republicans, from liberal to conservative. Wilson graduated from Princeton University in 1879, studied law at the University of Virginia, and received his doctorate degree from Johns Hopkins in 1886. He taught Political Science and History at Bryn Mawr and Wesleyan, and in 1902, became President of Princeton. Because of his support of Aldrich’s Bill, when it was first announced, he was supported by the Illuminati in his successful bid as Governor of New Jersey in 1910. The deal was made through Vanderlip agents, William Rockefeller and James Stillman, at Vanderlip’s West Chester estate. The liaison between the Illuminati and Wilson, would be his prospective son-in-law, William G. McAdoo. Rabbi Stephen Wise, a leading Jewish activist, told an audience at the Y.M.C.A. in Trenton, New Jersey: “On Tuesday the President of Princeton University will be elected Governor of your state. He will not complete his term of office as Governor. In November, 1912, he will be elected President of the United States. In March, 1917, he will be inaugurated for the second time as President. He will be one of the greatest Presidents in American history.” Wise, who made this prophetic statement in 1910, later became a close advisor to Wilson. He had good reason to believe what he said, because the deal had already been struck. Wilson wasn’t viewed as being pro-banking, and the Democratic Party Platform opposed a Central Bank, which was now linked to the Republicans and the bankers. The main problem for the Democrats, was the Republican voting edge, and their lack of money. After the Illuminati made the decision to support Wilson, money was no problem. Records showed that the biggest contributors to Wilson’s campaign were Jacob Schiff, Bernard Baruch, Henry Morgenthau, Sr., Thomas

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Fortune Ryan (mining magnate), Samuel Untermyer, Cleveland H. Dodge (of the National City Bank), Col. George B. M. Harvey (an associate of J. P. Morgan, and editor of the Morgan-controlled Harper’s Weekly, and President of the Harper and Brothers publishing firm), William Laffan (editor of the New York Sun), Adolph Ochs (publisher of the New York Times), and the financiers that owned the New York Times, Charles R. Flint, Gen. Sam Thomas, J. P. Morgan, and August Belmont. All of these men were Illuminati members. The problem of the voter registration edge was a bit more difficult, but that was a project that the Illuminati had already been working on. The Russian pogroms of 1881 and 1882, in which thousands of Russians were killed; and religious persecution and anti-Semitism in Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria in the early 1890’s, began three decades of immigration into the United States by thousands of Jews. By the turn of the century, a half-million Jews had arrived to the port cities of New York, Baltimore, and Boston. It was the Democrats who initiated a program to get them registered to vote. Humanitarian committees were set up by Schiff and the Rothschilds, such as the Hebrew Immigration Aid Society, and the B’nai B’rith, so when the Jews arrived, they were made naturalized citizens, registered Democrat, then shuffled off to other large cities, such as Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit and Los Angeles, where they were given financial help to find a place to live, food, and clothing. This is how the Jews became a solid Democratic voting bloc, and it was these votes that would be needed to elect Wilson to the Presidency. In 1912, with President William Howard Taft running for reelection against Wilson, the Illuminati needed some insurance. They got it by urging another Republican, former President, Theodore Roosevelt (1901-09) to run on the Progressive ticket. Taft had served as Roosevelt’s Secretary of War (1905-09), and was chosen by Roosevelt to succeed him as President. Now, Roosevelt was running again. Advocating the ‘New Nationalism,’ Roosevelt said: “My hat is in the ring ... the fight is on and I am stripped to the buff.” Identified as ‘anti-business’ because of his stand against corporations and trusts, his proposals for reorganizing the government were attacked by the Illuminati-

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controlled New York Times as “super-socialism.” His ‘Bull Moose’ Platform said: “We are opposed to the so-called Aldrich Currency Bill because its provisions would place our currency and credit system in private hands, not subject to effective public control.” Frank Munsey and George Perkins, of the J. P. Morgan and Co. organized, ran, and financed Roosevelt’s campaign. A recent example of the same plan that pulled votes away from Taft, in order to get Wilson elected, occurred in the 1992 Presidential election. In a 1994 interview, Barbara Bush told ABC-TV news correspondent Barbara Walters, that the third-party candidacy of independent H. Ross Perot was the reason that Bill Clinton was able to defeat the re-election bid of President George Bush. The Illuminati was able to get the support of perennial Democratic Presidential candidate, William Jennings Bryan, by letting him write the plank of the Party Platform which opposed the Aldrich Bill. Remember, the second version of the Bill prepared at Jekyll Island was to be an alternative, so public attention was turned against the Aldrich Bill. Wilson, an aristocrat, having socialistic views, was in favor of an independent reserve system, because he didn’t trust the ‘common men’ which made up Congress. However, publicly, he promised to “free the poor people of America from control by the rich,” and to have a money system that wouldn’t be under the control of Wall Street’s International Bankers. In fact, in the summer of 1912, when he accepted the nomination as the Democratic candidate for the Presidency, he said: “A concentration of the control of credit ... may at any time become infinitely dangerous to free enterprise.” According to the Federal Reserve’s historical narrative, the shift in Wilson’s point of view was “a combination of political realities and his own lack of knowledge about banking and finance (and) after his election to the Presidency, Wilson relied on others for more expert advice on the currency question.” Because of the voting split in the Republican Party, not only was Woodrow Wilson able to win the Presidency, but the Democrats gained control of both houses in Congress. DEMOCRAT (Wilson) : 435 electoral votes 6,286,214 popular votes

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PROGRESSIVE (Roosevelt): 88 electoral votes 4,126,020 popular votes REPUBLICAN (Taft) : 8 electoral votes 3,483,922 popular votes Rep. Carter Glass of Virginia, Chairman of the Banking and Currency Committee, met with Wilson after his election, along with H. Parker Willis (who was Dean of Political Science at George Washington University) of the National Citizens League, to prepare a Bill, known as the Glass Bill, which began taking form in January, 1913. Now Plan B was set into motion. Remember, the National Citizens League, headquartered in Chicago, had already announced their opposition to the Aldrich Bill, now the Wall Street banking interests had come out against the Glass Bill, which was actually the Aldrich Bill in disguise. The Wall Street crowd was generally referred to as the ‘money trust.’ However, a 1912 Wall Street Journal editorial said that the term ‘money trust’ was just a reference to J. P. Morgan. The suspicion of the ‘money trust’ peaked in 1912, during an investigation by a House banking subcommittee which revealed that twelve banks in New York, Boston, and Chicago, had 746 interlocking directorships in 134 corporations. Rep. Robert L. Henry of Texas said that for the past five years, the nation’s financial resources had been “concentrated in the city of New York (where they) now dominate more than 75 percent of the moneyed interests of America...” On December 13, 1911, George McC. Reynolds, the President of the Continental and Commercial Bank of Chicago, said to a group of other bankers: “I believe the money power now lies in the hands of a dozen men...” The threat from this powerful private banking system was to be ended with the establishment of a central bank. To avoid the mention of central banking, Wilson himself suggested that the regional banks be called ‘Federal Reserve Banks,’ and proposed a special session of the 63rd Congress to be convened to vote on the Federal Reserve Act. On June 23, 1913, he addressed the Congress on the subject of the Federal Reserve, threatening to keep them in session until they passed it. Wilson got Bryan’s support by making him Secretary of State, and in October, 1913, Bryan said he would assist the President in “securing the passage of the Bill at the earliest possible moment.”

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The Glass Bill (HR7837) was introduced in the House of Representatives on June 26, 1913. The revision mentioned nothing about central banking, which was what the people feared. It was believed that Willis had written the Bill, but it was later discovered that Professor James L. Laughlin, at the Political Science Department of Columbia University, had written it, taking special precaution not to clash with the Bryan plank of the Democratic Party Platform. It was referred to the Banking and Currency Committee, reported back to the House on September 9th, and passed on September 18th. Sen. Robert Latham Owen of Oklahoma, Chairman of the Senate Banking and Finance Committee, along with five of his colleagues, drafted a Bill which was more open-minded to the suggestions of the bankers. A Bill drafted by Sen. Gilbert M. Hitchcock, a Democrat from Nebraska, called for the elimination of the ‘lawful money’ provision, and stipulated that note redemption must be made in gold. It also provided for public ownership of the regional reserve banks, which would be controlled by the government. In the Senate, the Glass Bill was referred to the Senate Banking Committee, and reported back to the Senate on November 22, 1913. The Bill was now known as the Glass-Owen Bill. Sen. Owen, who opposed the Aldrich Bill, made some additional revisions, in an attempt to keep them from completely dominating our monetary system. Sen. Elihu Root of New York criticized some of these revisions, and some points were modified. It was passed by the Senate on December 19th. Since different versions had been passed by both Houses, a Conference Committee was established, which was stacked with six Democrats and only two Republicans, to insure that certain portions of the original Bill would remain intact. It was hastily prepared without any public hearings, and on December 23, 1913, two days before Christmas, when many Congressmen, and three particular Senators, were away from Washington; the Bill was sent to the House of Representatives, where it passed 298-60, and then sent to the Senate, where it passed with a vote of 43-25 (with 27 absent or abstaining). An hour after the Senate vote, Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law, and the Illuminati had

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taken control of the American economy. The gold and silver in the nation’s vaults were now owned by the Federal Reserve. Baron Alfred Charles Rothschild (1842-1918), who masterminded the entire scheme, then made plans to further weaken our country’s financial structure. Although Wilson, and Rep. Carter Glass were given the credit for getting the Federal Reserve Act through Congress, William Jennings Bryan played a major role in gaining support to pass it. Bryan later wrote: “That is the one thing in my public career that I regret- my work to secure the enactment of the Federal Reserve Law.” Rep. Glass would later write: “I had never thought the Federal Bank System would prove such a failure. The country is in a state of irretrievable bankruptcy.” Eustace Mullins, in his book The Federal Reserve Conspiracy, wrote: “The money and credit resources of the United States were now in complete control of the banker’s alliance between J. P. Morgan’s First National Bank, and Kuhn & Loeb’s National City Bank, whose principal loyalties were to the international banking interests, then quartered in London, and which moved to New York during the First World War.” The Reserve Bank Organization Committee, controlled by Secretary of the Treasury, William Gibbs McAdoo, and Secretary of Agriculture David F. Houston (who along with Glass, later became Treasury Secretaries under Wilson), was given $100,000 to find locations for the regional Reserve Banks. With over 200 cities requesting this status, hearings were held in 18 cities, as they traveled the country in a special railroad car. On October 25, 1914, the formal establishment of the Federal Reserve System was announced, and it began operating in 1915. Col. House, who Wilson called his “alter ego,” because he was his closest friend and most trusted advisor, anonymously wrote a novel in 1912 called Philip Dru: Administrator, which revealed the manner in which Wilson was controlled. House, who lobbied for the implementation of central banking, would now turn his attention towards a graduated income tax. Incidentally, a central bank, providing inflatable currency; and a graduated income tax, were two of the ten points in the Communist Manifesto for socializing a country.

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It was House who hand-picked the first Federal Reserve Board. He named Benjamin Strong as its first Chairman. In 1914, Paul M. Warburg quit his $500,000 a year job at Kuhn, Loeb and Co. to be on the Board, later resigning in 1918, during World War I, because of his German connections. The Banking Act of 1935 amended the Federal Reserve Act, changing its name to the Federal Reserve System, and reorganizing it, in respect to the number of directors and length of term. Headed by a seven member Board of Governors, appointed by the President, and confirmed by the Senate for a 14 year term, the Board acts as an overseer to the nation’s money supply and banking system. The Board of Governors, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, and four other Reserve Bank Presidents, who serve on a rotating basis, make up the Federal Open Market Committee. This group decides whether or not to buy and sell government securities on the open market. The Government buys and sells government securities, mostly through 21 Wall Street bond dealers, to create reserves to make the money needed to run the government. The Committee also determines the supply of money available to the nation’s banks and consumers. There are twelve Federal Reserve Banks, in twelve districts: Boston (MA), Cleveland (OH), New York (NY), Philadelphia (PA), Richmond (VA), Atlanta (GA), Chicago (IL) , St. Louis (MO), Minneapolis (MN), Kansas City (KS), San Francisco (CA), and Dallas (TX). The twelve regional banks were set up so that the people wouldn’t think that the Federal Reserve was controlled from New York. Each of the Banks has nine men on the Board of Directors; six are elected by member Banks, and three are appointed by the Board of Governors. They have 25 branch Banks, and many member Banks. All Federal Banks are members, and four out of every ten commercial banks are members. In whole, the Federal Reserve System controls about 70% of the country’s bank deposits. Ohio Senator, Warren G. Harding, who was elected to the Presidency in 1920, said in a 1921 Congressional inquiry, that the Reserve was a private banking monopoly. He said: “The Federal Reserve Bank is an institution owned by the stockholding member banks. The

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Government has not a dollar’s worth of stock in it.” His term was cut short in 1923, when he mysteriously died, leading to rumors that he was poisoned. This claim was never substantiated, because his wife would not allow an autopsy. Three years after the initiation of the Federal Reserve, Woodrow Wilson said: “The growth of the nation ... and all our activities are in the hands of a few men ... We have come to be one of the worst ruled; one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world ... no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the free vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” In 1919, John Maynard Keynes, later an advisor to Franklin D. Roosevelt, wrote in his book The Economic Consequences of Peace: “Lenin is to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency ... By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens ... As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless...” Congressman Charles August Lindbergh, Sr., father of the historic aviator, said on the floor of the Congress: “This Act establishes the most gigantic trust on Earth ... When the President signs this Act, the invisible government by the Money Power, proven to exist by the Money Trust investigation, will be legalized ... This is the Aldrich Bill in disguise ... The new law will create inflation whenever the Trusts want inflation ... From now on, depressions will be scientifically created ... The worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.” Lindbergh supposedly paid for his opposition to the Illuminati. When there appeared to be growing support for his son Charles to run for the Presidency, his grandson was kidnapped, and apparently killed. Rep. Henry Cabot Lodge, Sr. said of the Bill (Congressional Record, June 10, 1932): “The Bill as it stands, seems to me to open the way to vast expansion of the currency ... I do not like to think

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that any law can be passed which will make it possible to submerge the gold standard in a flood of irredeemable paper currency.” On December 15, 1931, Rep. Louis T. McFadden, who for more than ten years served as Chairman of the Banking and Currency Committee in the House of Representatives, said: “The Federal Reserve Board and banks are the duly appointed agents of the foreign central banks of issue and they are more concerned with their foreign customers than they are with the people of the United States. The only thing that is American about the Federal Reserve Board and banks is the money they use...” On June 10, 1932, McFadden, said in an address to the Congress: “We have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks ... Some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are not Government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers ... The Federal Reserve Banks are the agents of the foreign central banks ... In that dark crew of financial pirates, there are those who would cut a man’s throat to get a dollar out of his pocket ... Every effort has been made by the Federal Reserve Board to conceal its powers, but the truth is the FED has usurped the government. It controls everything here (in Congress) and controls all our foreign relations. It makes and breaks governments at will ... When the FED was passed, the people of the United States did not perceive that a world system was being set up here ... A super-state controlled by international bankers, and international industrialists acting together to enslave the world for their own pleasure!” On May 23, 1933, McFadden brought impeachment charges against the members of the Federal Reserve: “Whereas I charge them jointly and severally with having brought about a repudiation of the national currency of the United States in order that the gold value of said currency might be given to private interests...

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I charge them ... with having arbitrarily and unlawfully taken over $80,000,000,000 from the United States Government in the year 1928... I charge them ... with having arbitrarily and unlawfully raised and lowered the rates on money ... increased and diminished the volume of currency in circulation for the benefit of private interests... I charge them ... with having brought about the decline of prices on the New York Stock Exchange... I charge them ... with having conspired to transfer to foreigners and international money lenders, title to and control of the financial resources of the United States... I charge them ... with having published false and misleading propaganda intended to deceive the American people and to cause the United States to lose its independence... I charge them ... with the crime of having treasonably conspired and acted against the peace and security of the United States, and with having treasonably conspired to destroy the constitutional government of the United States.” In 1933, Vice-President John Garner, when referring to the international bankers, said: “You see, gentlemen, who owns the United States.” Sen. Barry Goldwater wrote in his book With No Apologies: “Does it not seem strange to you that these men just happened to be CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) and just happened to be on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, that absolutely controls the money and interest rates of this great country. A privately owned organization ... which has absolutely nothing to do with the United States of America!” Plain and simple, the Federal Reserve is not part of the Federal Government. It is a privately held corporation owned by stockholders. That is why the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (and all the others) is listed in the Dun and Bradstreet Reference Book of American Business (Northeast, Region 1, Manhattan/ Bronx). According to Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution,

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only Congress has the right to issue money and regulate its value, so it is illegal for private interests to do so. Yet, it happened, and because of a provision in the Act, the Class A stockholders were to be kept a secret, and not to be revealed. R. F. McMaster, who published a newsletter called The Reaper, through his Swiss and Saudi Arabian contacts, was able to find out which banks held a controlling interest in the Reserve: the Rothschild Banks of London and Berlin; Lazard Brothers Bank of Paris; Israel Moses Seif Bank of Italy; Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam; Lehman Brothers Bank of New York; Kuhn, Loeb, and Co. of New York; Chase Manhattan Bank of New York; and Goldman, Sachs of New York. These interests control the Reserve through about 300 stockholders. Because of the way the Reserve was organized, whoever controls the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, controls the system, About 90 of the 100 largest banks are in this district. Of the reportedly 203,053 shares of the New York bank: Rockefeller’s National City Bank had 30,000 shares; Morgan’s First National Bank had 15,000 shares; Chase National, 6,000 shares; and the National Bank of Commerce (Morgan Guaranty Trust), 21,000 shares. A June 15, 1978 Senate Report called “Interlocking Directorates Among the Major U.S. Corporations” revealed that five New York banks had 470 interlocking directorates with 130 major U.S. corporations: Citicorp (97), J. P. Morgan Co. (99), Chase Manhattan (89), Manufacturers Hanover (89), and Chemical Bank (96). According to Eustace Mullins, these banks are major stock holders in the FED. In his book World Order, he said that these five banks are “controlled from London.” Mullins said: “Besides its controlling interest in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Rothschilds had developed important financial interests in other parts of the United States ... The entire Rockefeller empire was financed by the Rothschilds.” A May, 1976 report of the House Banking and Currency Committee indicated: “The Rothschild banks are affiliated with Manufacturers Hanover of London in which they hold 20 percent... and Manufacturers Hanover Trust of New York.” The Report also revealed that Rothschild Intercontinental Bank, Ltd., which

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consisted of Rothschild banks in London, France, Belgium, New York, and Amsterdam, had three American subsidiaries: National City Bank of Cleveland, First City National Bank of Houston, and Seattle First National Bank. It is believed, that the Rothschilds hold 53% of the stock of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Each year, billions of dollars are ‘earned’ by Class A stockholders, from U.S. tax dollars which go to the FED to pay interest on bank loans.

HOW OUR GOLD RESERVES HAVE BEEN MANIPULATED The Coinage Act of 1792 established a dollar consisting of 371.25 grains of pure silver, but was later replaced with a gold dollar consisting of 25.8 grains of gold. In 1873, the Coinage Act was passed, prohibiting the use of Silver as a form of currency, because the quantity being discovered was driving the value down. In 1875, after temporarily suspending gold convertibility during the Civil War greenback period, the U.S. was put more firmly on the gold standard by the Gold Standard Act of 1900. From 1900 to 1933, gold was coined by the U.S. Mint, and our paper currency was tied into the amount of gold held in the U.S. Treasury reserves. In July, 1927, the directors of the Bank of England, the New York Federal Reserve Bank, and the German Reichsbank, met to plan a way to get the gold moved out of the United States, and it was this movement of gold which helped trigger the depression. By 1928, nearly $500 million in gold was transferred to Europe. President Franklin D. Roosevelt accepted the advice of England’s leading economist, John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), a member of the Illuminati, who said that deficit spending would be a shot in the arm to the economy. Most of the New Deal spending programs to fight economic depression, were based on Keynes theories on deficit spending, and financed by borrowing against future taxes. In 1910, Lenin said: “The surest way to overthrow an established social order is to debauch its currency.” Nine years later, Keynes wrote: “Lenin was certainly right, there is no more positive, or subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency ... The process engages all of the hidden forces of economic law on the

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side of destruction, and does it in a manner that not one man in a million is able to diagnose.” A Presidential Executive Order by Roosevelt on April 5, 1933, required all the people to exchange their gold coins, gold bullion, and gold-backed currency, for money that was not redeemable in precious metals. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934, known as the Thomas Amendment, which amended the Act of May 12, 1933, made it illegal to possess any gold currency (which was rescinded December 31, 1974). Gold coinage was withdrawn from circulation, and kept in the form of bullion. Just as the public was to return all their gold to the U.S. Government, so was the Federal Reserve. However, while the people received $20.67 an ounce in paper money issued by the Federal Reserve, the Reserve was paid in Gold Certificates. Now the Federal Reserve, and the Illuminati, had control of all the gold in the country. In 1934, the value of gold increased to $35 an ounce, which produced a $3 billion profit for the Government. But when the price of gold increases, the value of the dollar decreases. Our dollar has not been worth 100 cents since 1933, when we were taken off of the Gold Standard. In 1974, our dollar was worth 221/2 cents, and in 1983 it was only worth 38 cents. In 2002, it took $13.88 to buy what cost $1.00 in 1933. Since our money supply had been limited to the amount of gold in Treasury reserves, when the value of the dollar decreased, more money was printed. The first United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, from July 1 to July 22, 1944, which was under the direction of Harry Dexter White (CFR member, and undercover Russian spy), established the policies of the International Monetary Fund. Its goals were to strip the United States of its gold reserves by giving it to other nations; and to merge with their industrial capabilities; as well as their economic, social, educational and religious policies; to facilitate a one-world government. Because of paying off foreign obligations and strengthening foreign economies, between 1958 and 1968, the amount of gold bullion in the possession of the U.S. Treasury dropped by 52%. Of the amount remaining, $12 billion was reserved by law for backing the paper money in circulation. Our money had been

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backed by a 25% gold reserve in accordance to a law that was passed in 1945, but it was rescinded in 1968. The amount of gold slipped from 653.1 million troy ounces in 1957, to 311.2 million ounces in 1968, which according to the Treasury Department, was due to sales to foreign banking institutions, sales to domestic producers, and the buying and selling of gold on the world market to stabilize prices. This was a loss of 341.9 million troy ounces. In August, 1971, gold was used only for world trade, because foreign countries wouldn’t accept U.S. dollars. As of November, 1981, sources had indicated that the gold reserve had dropped to 264.1 million troy ounces. Title 31 of the U.S. Code, requires an annual physical inventory of our gold supply, but a complete audit was never done, so officially, nobody knows what has occurred. After World War II, America had 70% of the World’s supply of loose gold, but today, we may have less than 7%. Sen. Jesse Helms seemed to think that the OPEC nations have our gold, while others believe that 70% of the world’s gold supply is being held by the World Bank, which is dominated by the financial grip of the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers. Some years ago, I had been contacted by a gentleman in Michigan, whose research indicated that counterfeit $5,000 and $10,000 Federal Reserve Notes had been used to steal U.S. gold reserves. Illegal to own, these notes are actually checks which are used to transfer ownership of large amounts of gold without actually moving the gold itself. Using public records, he found the serial numbers of the bills which were originally printed, and discovered that there are now more in existence. It has been reported that 40% (13,000 tons) of the world’s gold is five levels below street level, in a sub-basement of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, behind a 90-ton revolving door. Some of it is American-owned, but most is owned by the central banks of other countries. It is stored in separate cubicles, and from time to time, is moved from one cubicle to another to satisfy international transactions.

THE DESTRUCTIVE MEASURES OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE After March, 1964, Silver certificates were no longer convertible to Silver dollars; and in March, 1968, near the conclusion of the

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Johnson Administration, Silver backing of the dollar was removed. On the 1929 series of notes, it read: “Redeemable in gold on demand at the United States Treasury, or in gold or lawful money at any Federal Reserve Bank.” This was just like the Silver Certificate, which was guaranteed by a dollar in silver that was on deposit. On the 1934 series of notes, it read: “This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private, and is redeemable in lawful money at the United States Treasury, or at any Federal Reserve Bank.” The 1950 series bore the same information, but reduced it to three lines, and reduced the size of the type. In the 1953 series, the wording was totally removed, although the bottom portion contained a promise to “pay the bearer on demand.” However, in 1963, even that message was removed, and our dollars became nothing more than worthless pieces of paper because they no longer met the legal requirements of a note, which meant it had to list an issuing bank, and amount payable, a payee or ‘bearer,’ and a time for payment, which was ‘on demand.’ Since 1933, the Reserve has been printing too much money, compared to the declining Gross National Product (GNP). The GNP is the accumulated values of services and goods produced in the country. If the GNP is 4%, then the money produced should only be about 5-6%, thus insuring enough money to keep the goods produced by the GNP in circulation. Additional social services, which are promised during election year rhetoric to gain votes, increase the Federal Budget, so more money is printed. Then the Government will cut the Budget, establish wage and price controls. The extra money in circulation decreases the value of the dollar, and prices go up. Simply put, too much money in circulation causes inflation, and that is what the Reserve is doing, purposely printing too much money in order to destroy the economy. On the other hand, if they would stop printing money, our economy would collapse. The Reserve is responsible for setting the interest rate that member banks can borrow from the Reserve, thus controlling the interest rates of the entire country. So, what it boils down to, is that the Federal Reserve determines the amount of money needed, which is created by the International Bankers out of nothing.

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Besides the face value, they charge the government 3¢ to produce each bill. The Federal government pays the Reserve in bonds (which are also printed by the Reserve), and then pay the bonds off at a high rate of interest. That interest will very soon become the largest item in the Federal Budget. William McChesney Martin, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and Chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED) during the ‘New Frontier’ years of the Kennedy Administration, testified to the Federal Banking Committee, that the value of the dollar was being scientifically brought down each year by 3-3-1/2%, in order to allow wages to go up. The reasoning behind this, was that the people were being made to think that they were getting more, when in fact they were actually getting less. The Congress has also contributed to this process, by approving Federal Budgets, year after year, which requires the printing of more money to finance the debt, which, by the end of 2003, was over $6,900,000,000,000 ($6.9 trillion). When Wilson was President, the debt was about $1 billion, and in 1974, the debt was about $1 trillion. In 1937, Rep. Charles G. Binderup of Nebraska, realizing the consequences of the Federal Reserve System, called for the Government to buy all the stock, and to create a new Board controlled by Congress to regulate the value of the currency and the volume of bank deposits, thus eliminating the FED’s independence. He was defeated for re-election. Others have also tried to introduce various Bills to control the Federal Reserve: Rep. Goldborough (1935), Rep. Jerry Voorhis of California (1940, 1943), Sen. M. M. Logan of Kentucky, and Rep. Usher L. Burdick of North Dakota. Rep. Wright Patman of Texas (who was the House Banking Chairman until 1975), said in 1952: “In fact there has never been an independent audit of either the twelve banks of the Federal Reserve Board that has been filed with the Congress ... For 40 years the system, while freely using the money of the government, has not made a proper accounting.” Patman, said that the Federal Open Market Committee (who, in addition to the Board of Governors, decide the country’s monetary policy) is “one of the

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most secret societies. These twelve men decide what happens in the economy ... In making decisions they check with no one– not the President, not the Congress, not the people.” Patman also said: “In the United States we have, in effect, two governments ... We have the duly constituted Government ... Then we have an independent, uncontrolled and uncoordinated government in the Federal Reserve System, operating the money powers which are reserved to Congress by the Constitution.” During his career, Patman has sought to force the FED to allow an independent audit, lessen the influence of the large banks, shorten the terms of the FED Governors, expose it to regular Congressional review just like any other Federal agency, and to have only officials nominated by the President and confirmed by Congress to be on the Federal Open Market Committee. In 1967, Patman tried to have them audited, and on January 22, 1971, introduced HR11, which would have altered its organization, diminishing much of its power. He was later removed from the Chairmanship of the House Banking and Currency Committee, which he held for years. On January 22, 1971, Rep. John R. Rarick of Louisiana introduced HR351: “To vest in the Government of the United States the full, absolute, complete, and unconditional ownership of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks.” He said: “The Federal Reserve is not an agency of government. It is a private banking monopoly.” He was later defeated for re-election. During the 1980’s, Rep. Phil Crane of Illinois introduced House Resolution HR70 that called for an annual audit of the FED (which never came to a full vote); and Rep. Henry Gonzalez of Texas introduced HR1470, that called for the repeal of the Federal Reserve Act. The Federal Reserve System has never been audited, and their meetings, and minutes of those meetings, are not open to the public. They have repelled all attempts to be audited. In 1967, Arthur Burns, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that an audit would threaten the independence of the Reserve. In 1979, after dismissing Secretary of Treasury, Michael Blumenthal, President Jimmy Carter offered the position to American Illuminati chief, David Rockefeller, the CEO of Chase Manhattan Bank, as did Nixon, but he turned it down. He also

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turned down the nomination for the Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve Board. Carter then appointed Paul Volcker as Chairman. Volcker graduated from Princeton with a degree in Economics, and from Harvard, with a degree in Public Administration. He was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1952-57), worked at the Chase Manhattan Bank (1957-61), was with the U.S. Treasury Department (1961-65), Deputy Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs (1963-65), Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs (1969-74), and President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank (1975-79). In the Nixon Administration, as the Under Secretary for Monetary Policy and International Affairs, the executive branch official who works most closely with the Federal Reserve, he and Treasury Secretary John Connally helped formulate the policy that took us off the gold standard in 1971, because of the dwindling gold reserves at Fort Knox. Volcker was chosen because he was the “candidate of Wall Street.” He was a member of the Trilateral Commission, and a major Rockefeller supporter. Bert Lance, the Georgia banker and political advisor to Carter who became his Budget Director, and was later forced to resign, contacted Gerald Rafshoon, a Carter aide, and said that if Volcker would be appointed, he would be “mortgaging his re-election to the Federal Reserve.” Lance predicted that he would bring high interest rates and high unemployment. He was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee in August, 1979, replacing Arthur Burns, an Austrianborn economist who was a CFR member with close ties to the Rockefellers. Volcker was against a gold-back dollar, and gold being used as a form of currency. He attempted to tighten the money situation in order to curb the 10% annual growth in the money supply, and to ease the pressure of loan demand. The result was a dramatic increase in interest rates, which climbed to 13-1/2% by September, 1979, and then soared to 21-1/2% by December, 1980. Conjecture could dictate that this economic decline was purposely engineered to cause the political decline of Carter. In response to the rising interest rates, Carter said: “As you well know, I don’t have control over the FED, none at all. It’s carefully isolated from any influence by the President or the Congress. This

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has been done for many generations and I think it’s a wise thing to do.” Even though inflation had skyrocketed to all-time highs, Reagan kept Volcker on. It was Volcker who started the collapse of the U.S. economy. During the 1970’s, many banks had left the Federal Reserve, and in December, 1979, Volcker told the House Banking Committee that “300 banks with deposits of $18.4 billion have quit the FED within the past 4-1/2 years,” and that another 575 of the remaining 5,480 member banks, with deposits of $70 billion, had indicated that they intended to withdraw. He said that this would curtail their control over the money supply, and that led Congress, in 1980, to pass the Monetary Control Act, which gave the Federal Reserve control of all banking institutions, regardless if they are members or not. Alan Greenspan, who became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in 1987, is a member of the Council of Foreign Relations. He has a bachelor’s and master’s degree, and a doctorate in Economics from New York University. He met Ayn Rand, the author of Atlas Shrugged, in 1952, and they became friends. It is from her that he learned that capitalism “is not only efficient and practical, but also moral.” In February, 1995, the seventh increase in the interest rate, within the period of a year, took place. This put Greenspan in the limelight, as well as the Federal Reserve. It was very interesting how the media spin doctors churned out information that totally skirted the issue concerning the FED’s actual role in controlling our economy. In the mid-1970’s, Paper 447, Article 3, from the World Bank, said that the World economy would be fairly stable until 1980, when it would begin falling, in domino fashion. On October 29, 1975, the Wall Street Journal printed a comment by H. Johannes Witteveen, Managing Director of the United Nation’s International Monetary Fund, that the IMF “ought to evolve into a World Central Bank ... to prevent inflation.” Dr. H. A. Murkline, Director of the International Institute University in Irving, Texas, wrote in World Oil: 1976 that he projected that the Federal Government could only hold out till the end of 1981. Dow Theory Letters, Inc. reported that by 1982, the cost of dealing with the national debt “would eat up all the government tax money available.”

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The Robbins Report of January 15, 1978, said: “If Carter introduces Bancor, which will be the yielding of our dollar to the ECU (European Currency Unit), this is what will happen: look for hyperinflation and collapse of all the world’s paper money before 1985.” Julian Snyder said in the International Money Line of February, 1978: “The United States is trying to solve its problem through currency depreciation (debasement) ... it will not work. If the crash does not occur this year, it could be postponed until 1982.” On March 13, 1979, while meeting at Strasbourg, France, the Parliament of Europe, which governs the European Economic Community (Common Market), oversaw the establishment of a new European money system. Known as the ECU, it was backed by 20% of the participating countries’ gold reserves (about 3,150 tons). What little strength our dollar had, came from the fact that all nations buying oil from OPEC, had to use U.S. dollars. Then came the word in March, 1980, from Arab diplomatic sources at the United Nations that the Chase Manhattan Bank was making plans to drop the dollar in lieu of the ECU. Dr. Franz Pick, a well known authority on world currency, said in December, 1979, in the Silver and Gold Report: “The most serious problem we face today is the debasement of our currency by the government. The government will continue to debase the dollar until ... within 12-24, months it will shrink to 1 cent ... at which time Washington will be forced to create the new hard currency ... A currency reform is nothing but a fancy name for state bankruptcy ... A currency reform completes the expropriation of all kinds of savings ... it will wipe out all public and private bonds, most pensions; all annuities, and all endowments.” Against all odds, our economy has continued to hang on, even though financial analysts have continued to forecast disastrous conditions. In 1993, Sen. Bob Kerrey (Democrat, NE) promised to support President Bill Clinton’s Budget Plan, if Clinton would appoint a Committee to study the condition of the American economy. The President established a 32-member bipartisan committee and in August, 1994, they issued their report. According to the committee’s findings, by the year 2012, unless drastic changes are made, we won’t even be able to pay the interest on the national debt. Knowing

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this, the federal government has allowed the trend to continue, almost as if they’re trying to run our economy into the ground. It seems obvious that the destruction of the American economy has been part of a deliberate plot to financially enslave our nation.

THE NEW MONEY Dr. Pick said that late 1983 or early 1984 was the target date for the ‘new money.’ Carl Mintz, a staff member of the House Banking Committee, had said: “I believe it’s in the billions of dollars, and it’s buried in lots of places.” In the late 1970’s, it was believed to have already been printed, and stored at the Federal Reserve Emergency Relocation Facility in Culpepper, Virginia, which is built into the side of a mountain, and would be able to continue functioning during the aftermath of a nuclear or natural disaster; and the 200,000 sq. ft. Federal Reserve underground facility in Mt. Weather, Virginia (near Berryville), which is the primary relocation area for the President, Cabinet Secretaries, Supreme Court Justices, and several thousand federal employees (Congress would be relocated to an underground facility in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia). It is believed, that when our monetary system is finally destroyed, a reorganization will occur within the confines of a world government, and new money will be issued. Rep. Ron Paul, Republican from Texas, who was on the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, wrote about the new money in a letter to Charles T. Roberts, Executive VicePresident of the Hull State Bank in Texas: “In a closed briefing for the members of the House Banking Committee on November 2nd, representatives of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, the Federal Reserve, and the Secret Service described plans for making changes in Federal Reserve Notes beginning in 1985 (although the long range target is 1988) ... These changes, which will probably include taggents, security threads, and colors, and may include holograms, diffraction gratings, or watermarks, will be made in coordination with six other nations: Canada, Britain, Japan, Australia, West Germany and Switzerland. Japan, for example, will begin recalling its present currency in November, 1984, and have it nearly completed within six months ... According to the government, the only reason for the currency changes is to deter

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counterfeiting. Although it was admitted by one spokesman in the group that there would have to be a call-in of our present currency for new currency to work, the spokesmen for the government were adamant in saying that there was no other motive for a currency change...” According to law, only the Treasury Secretary has the authority to change the currency. Over $3 million had been spent under ‘counterfeit prevention’ authority for the development of the new money, which according to the Currency Design Act (HR6005) hearings would be issued by the Federal Reserve Board. It was first reported by the Patterson Organization in Cincinnati, Ohio, that in a July, 1983 market survey in Buena Park, California, people were shown proposed designs for “new U.S. dollar bills.” The variations shown, consisted of each denomination being a different color; Federal Reserve seals replaced with a design utilizing reflective ink; and other optical devices like holograms (a process which produces a threedimensional image which can change color depending on the angle it is viewed), and multilayer diffraction gratings (similar to a hologram); as well as bills containing metal security threads, and planchettes (red and blue colored discs incorporated into the paper, similar to threads) to trigger scanning equipment which would detect its presence, and to sort cash faster. A consumer research firm from Illinois was hired by the Treasury Department to gauge the public’s reactions to the various designs. It was shown that a drastic change would not be accepted, so a process of incrementalism was adopted. It was decided that the Bureau of Printing and Engraving would have a fine metallic strip running through the currency, leaving the basic design intact; however, they later decided to use a clear imprinted polyester strip, woven into the paper, running vertically on the left side of the Federal Reserve Seal. The length of the translucent polyester filament reads “USA100” for $100 bills, “USA50” for $50 bills, and so on; and can only be read if held up to direct light. It was reported that a company called Checkmate Electronics, Inc., which manufactures the equipment needed to scan checks, scanned the new money, and found the strip to contain “machine detectable” aluminum. Their scan produced an indecipherable bar code.

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Though the basic design did not change, there was microscopic type printed around the picture which reads, “The United States of America,” but appeared to only be a line. This currency with oversized, off-center portraits, was introduced in 1996 with the $100 bills, then $50 bills and $20 bills (1998), and culminated with $10’s and $5’s in 2000. The Government discontinued printing any of the old money, and began emptying their vaults to get rid of the old bills. The old money was never recalled, and continued to be circulated. Then in June, 2002, only a few years after the last makeover, the rumors of colored money became a fact, as the Bureau of Engraving and Printing announced that further changes were being made to our money for security reasons. In October, 2003, the new, colored $20 bill (the most counterfeited note), was introduced. The new bill retained the security thread, color-shifting ink, and watermark; but also had the colors of green and peach added to its background, as well as small yellow “20’s” printed on the back. The new $50 and $100 bills will be coming in 2004 and 2005. Some financial experts have theorized that when every denomination is changed over, that the business sector may not want to accept old bills, which would then become worthless, and could create a financial emergency. But Federal officials have said that the old money would be accepted, but scrutinized. It has been suggested that the government could really take advantage of the situation, that in order for people to exchange their old money for new, an exchange rate may be determined which would benefit the economy. For example, it may take two old dollars to exchange for a new one. It is possible that we may be experiencing the final transition to the “new money.” This transitional currency may be just another step in testing the public’s willingness to accept economic change. The Reserve formally had about seven currency sorting machines which counted up to 55,000 bills per minute, but by the end of 1983, they had received 110 new machines which could count up to 72,000 bills per minute. Jane Kettleson, an economic consultant to the U.S. Paper Exchange, said that, “the FED will have the capability to physically replace the entire U.S. currency in circulation in just

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four days time.” The International Monetary Fund has been responsible for the decline of our dollar, and our present economic situation. The first step to initiating this ‘crash’ was the Monetary Control Act of 1980, which instead of a 6:1 ratio, mandated the Federal Reserve to only have one dollar on deposit for every twelve they create. Further plans were made during a meeting of Western leaders at Williamsburg, Virginia, on May 28-30, 1983. International cooperation has been intense to coordinate currency changes among its member governments. In 1985, officials from the Morgan Bank in New York met with the Credit Lyonnais Bank in France. They established the European Currency Unit Banking Association (ECUBA), to get world cooperation for a unified currency, and had support from bankers in Europe, Japan, and the United States. It was an offshoot of the Banking Federation of the European Community (BFEC), which has been engaged in shutting down small banks in order to develop a conglomerate of a few huge banks. In October, 1987, the Association for the Monetary Union of Europe (AMUE), secretly met and recommended that the ECU (European Currency Unit) replace existing national currencies; and that all European Central Banks be combined into one and issue the ECU as the official unified currency (which is scheduled to occur in the year 2000). It is believed that the plan is to have only three central banks in the world: The Federal Reserve Bank, the European Central Bank, and the Central Bank of Japan. In a June, 1989 hearing of the Senate Banking Securities Subcommittee, Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that exchange rates could be fixed in order to solve the problem of uniformity between the currencies of various nations. Many countries have issued new money, such as Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, and Brazil. Of the countries that already had, most currencies had a common 1" square, usually on the left side of the bill. Held over a light, a hologram appears on the spot, barely visible to the naked eye, which cannot be reproduced on a copier. It is believed that this spot is being reserved for a central World Bank overprint. They also contain metallic strips that can be detected when they pass through scanners at airports and international borders.

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On May 10, 1994, when USA Today carried a page one article concerning major changes in the design of the paper currency, which was expected to take place by the end of the year, it was accompanied with a picture of the new $100 bill, featuring a larger portrait of Benjamin Franklin which had been pushed to the right side of the bill, and the Eagle in the center. The line “United States of America” appeared along the top right, and the line “One Hundred Dollars” appeared on the lower left, with the serial number being placed over that. There was a conspicuous open spot on the left side of the bill, very similar to the new currency in other countries, which some researchers feared was being reserved for some future use. The institution of a common world-wide currency may be delayed because of the possibility of moving right to a cashless system, making paper money obsolete. The Visa MagiCard was the first step towards a national debit card. With this card, you could make purchases at any of the 10 million merchants who accepted Visa, and have the amount electronically deducted from your checking account. Financial experts said at the time, that within only a few years, there would be more debit cards than credit cards. Since then, there has been a massive campaign to promote debit cards, and a move to accommodate their use in all areas of life. More and more banks have decided not to return people’s cancelled checks, because of the expense to do so; and it seems likely that there is a plan underway to gradually move away from the use of paper checks. With the existence of debit cards, and the fact that credit cards are so easily attainable, there’s no doubt that we’re being pushed into an electronic economy of Direct Deposit and Automatic Withdrawal. When total saturation has been achieved, then the stage will be set. Sure, it’s really convenient to whip out a piece of plastic to buy things, and to have all your financial affairs handled through the bank’s computer system. But do you realize, that when their plan is complete, you will be nothing more than a number in a computer. Everything you do can be tracked; and with a click of a mouse, or the press of a button, you could be denied access to your own money.

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In a letter to Edward M. House (President Wilson’s closest aide), dated November 23, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt said: “The real truth of the matter is, and you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government of the U.S. since the days of Andrew Jackson.” Henry Ford, founder of the Ford Motor Company, said: “It is well enough that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” In 1957, Sen. George W. Malone of Nevada said before Congress about the Federal Reserve: “I believe that if the people of this nation fully understood what Congress has done to them over the past 49 years, they would move on Washington: they would not wait for an election ... It adds up to a preconceived plan to destroy the economic and social independence of the United States.” THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX With the Illuminati in complete control of our monetary system, they were ready for the next step. They couldn’t touch the money of the people, because the Constitution did not contain any provision for the taxing of income; so they now set into motion a plan to accomplish this, in order to oppress the middle class, and increase the lower class, who would have to depend on the government for their survival. From 1862-72, to support the Civil War effort, Congress enacted the nation’s first income tax: 3% on incomes from $600 to $10,000, and 5% for incomes above that, which was later deemed to be insufficient, and it was increased twice, till it reached a high of 10% on all incomes over $5,000. The tax was criticized because it wasn’t apportioned among the states according to population. The Act of 1862 also provided for a sales tax, excise tax, and inheritance tax; and established the office of Commissioner of Internal Revenue, who was given the power to assess, levy, and collect taxes, and was given the authority to enforce tax laws. In 1868, tobacco and alcoholic beverages were taxed. The income tax was discontinued in 1872, but after heavy lobbying by the Populist Party, it was reinstated in 1894, as part of the Wilson-German Tariff Bill, when Congress enacted a 2%

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tax on all incomes over $4,000 a year. On May 20, 1895, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tax was unconstitutional, because it was not distributed among the states in accordance with the Constitution. Newspapers controlled by the Illuminati denounced the Court’s decision. When the income tax legislation was introduced in the Senate in 1894, Sen. Aldrich had come out against it, saying it was “communistic and socialistic,” but in 1909, he proposed the 16th Amendment to the Constitution, with the support of President Taft, which called for the creation of a progressive graduated income tax. It was ratified in February, 1913, and levied a 1% tax on all incomes over $3,000, and a progressive surtax on incomes over $20,000. Although praised by reformers, conservatives said it was “a first step toward complete confiscation of private property.” According to a 2-volume investigative report called The Law That Never Was, by William J. Benson (who had been a special agent with the Illinois Department of Revenue for 10 years) and M. J. Beckman, on February 25, 1913, shortly before the end of his term, Secretary of State Philander C. Knox ignored various irregularities, and fraudulently declared that the 16th Amendment had been ratified by three-fourths (or 36) of the 48 states. Benson traveled to all the states’ archives, and to the National Archives in Washington, DC, obtaining more than 17,000 pages of documents, all properly notarized and certified by state officials, that proved that the 16th Amendment was never ratified. A 16-page memo dated February 15, 1913, to Knox, from his solicitor, stated that only four states had “correctly” ratified the amendment, that Minnesota had not forwarded their copy yet, and that the resolutions from 33 states contained punctuation, capitalization, or wording different than the Resolution that was approved by Congress. The memo read: “In the certified copies of the resolutions passed by the legislatures of the several states ratifying the proposed 16th amendment, it appears that only four of these resolutions (those submitted by Arizona, North Dakota, Tennessee and New Mexico) have quoted absolutely accurately and correctly the 16th amendment as proposed by Congress. The other thirty-three resolutions all contain errors either of

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punctuation, capitalization, or wording. Minnesota, it is to be remembered, did not transmit to the Department a copy of the resolution passed by the legislature of the state. The resolutions passed by twenty-two states contain errors only of capitalization or punctuation, or both, while those of eleven states contain errors in the wording...” Benson discovered that some word changes and misplaced commas were done by legislative intent. State Legislatures voting to ratify a proposed Constitutional amendment, must use a certified, exact copy, as passed by the Congress. Since this was not done, legally, the Government can only collect an income tax within the guidelines set forth by the Supreme Court in Pollock v. Farmers Loan & Trust Co., 157 U.S. 429 (1895), and all sections of the Internal Revenue Code, based on the 16th Amendment, are not valid. So, of the 48 states: Eight states (Rhode Island, Utah, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania) did not approve or ratify the amendment. Texas and Louisiana were forbidden by their own state constitution to empower the federal government to tax their citizens. Vermont and Massachusetts rejected the amendment with a recorded vote count, but later declared it passed without a recorded vote only after the amendment had been declared ratified by Knox. Tennessee, Ohio, Mississippi, California, and Washington violated their own state constitutions during their ratification procedures. Minnesota had not sent any copy of its resolution to Knox, let alone a signed and sealed copy, as was required by law. Oklahoma, Georgia, and Illinois had made unacceptable changes in the wording, as did some of the above states (in addition to the other unacceptable procedures). When you deduct these 21 states, you only had a proper ratification by only 27 states, far less than the Constitutionallymandated 36.

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Because of his diligence, Benson was arrested and imprisoned on income tax charges, but later released.

WHY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOESN’T HAVE JURISDICTION OVER STATES According to Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution of the United States: “The Congress shall have power ... to exclusive legislation in all cases whatsoever, over such district (not exceeding ten miles square) as may, by cession of particular States and the acceptance of Congress, become the seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like authority over all places purchased by the consent of the legislature of the State in which the same shall be, for the erection of forts, magazines, arsenals, dockyards, and other needful building...” This passage reveals the true intention of our forefathers, which was for the Federal Government to coordinate the efforts of all the States in order to combine their resources when it came to things like trade and defense, since the States were actually like separate countries. Therefore, the Congress only had jurisdiction over the area of Washington, D.C., and non-state territories like Alaska, and Hawaii (before they became states); and the present countries of Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and others; and Federal property such as military bases. This area will be hereinafter referred to as the District (as in the District of Columbia), as it is in the United States Code (see 26 USC 7701(a) (1), and 26 USC 3121(e) (1) ). Since America is a Republic, and not a democracy, the Government has a responsibility to protect the inalienable rights of its citizens, as granted by the Constitution, rather than to grant privileges, known as civil rights, which are decided by the will of the majority. When the sovereign state citizen gave power to the State Constitution, which created State Government; this in turn gave power to the U.S. Constitution, which created the Federal Government; which has, in a sense, incorporated and gave power to the United States Government; which has turned the U.S. citizen into a subject of the U.S. Government. Therefore, the Federal Government has been able to wield its influence over the entire country, rather than just the area referred to as the District.

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This is possible, because, for all intents and purposes, there are two of every state. For example, the official name of Pennsylvania is the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania; but to the U.S. Government, it is known as the State of Pennsylvania. There are even two state flags. One with a gold fringe, which represents the State of Pennsylvania, and martial law under the U.S. Government; and one without the fringe, which represents the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The gold-fringed flag was reserved for use by the General of the Army, where it was present at military headquarters and displayed at court martials. Its use elsewhere, as a government battle flag, was only to be done at the discretion of the President, within his role as the Commander-inChief of the military, to establish the jurisdiction of the military presence. This gold-fringed flag, which is common in many public places, such as courthouses, and schools, is not the national flag which represents our constitutional republic. It is a symbol of federal government jurisdiction. When Franklin D. Roosevelt was inaugurated on March 4, 1933, he called for an emergency session of Congress on March 9th, where the Emergency Banking Relief Act (also known as the War Powers Act, which seized all the country’s constitutional gold and silver coinage) was passed, which gave FDR the power to issue any order, and do anything he felt was necessary to run the country, without restriction, by authority of the Trading with the Enemy Act of October 6, 1917 (which placed all German citizens under the authority of the President, because they were enemies of the U.S.). In 1917, Chapter 106, Section 2, subdivision (c), of the Trading with the Enemy Act, defined the Enemy as someone “other than citizens of the United States…” and in 1933, according to Chapter 106, Section 5, subdivision (b), the Act designated as the Enemy “any person within the United States.” America was under the authority of an emergency war government. According to the book Constitution: Fact or Fiction by Dr. Eugene Schroder (with Micki Nellis), our Constitution was actually nullified on March 9, 1933, when President Franklin Roosevelt declared a national emergency. As recorded in Congressional Record in 1933, Rep. James Buck said: “...the doctrine

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of emergency is the worst. It means that when Congress declares an emergency, there is no Constitution. This means it’s dead.” Senate Report 93-549 (Senate Resolution 9, 93rd Congress, 1st Session) in 1973 said that since 1933 “the United States has been in a state of declared national emergency … A majority of the people of the United States have lived all their lives under emergency rule. For 40 years freedoms and governmental procedures guaranteed by the Constitution have, in varying degrees, been abridged by laws brought into force by states of national emergency...” The Act was never repealed after the World War II, because Roosevelt died; and Truman used the extraordinary powers he gained through the rewriting of the War Powers Act to establish the National Security infrastructure, which included the C.I.A. The “national emergency” technically ended on September 14, 1976, when the 93rd Congress passed H.R. 3884, the National Emergencies Termination Act (50 USC 1601, Public Law 94-412) in response to President Richard Nixon’s abuse of the Trading with the Enemy Act (which was part of Roosevelt’s emergency legislation). Though he had promised an end to the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War, he actually escalated the war by authorizing the secret bombing of Cambodia. And then later, in December, 1972, Nixon ordered American B-52’s to drop over 36,000 tons of bombs over Haiphong and Hanoi. Congress then appointed the Special Committee on the Termination of the National Emergency, headed by Sen. Frank Church (D-ID), who began having hearings in July, 1973. Even though it appeared that the emergency legislation was repealed, the last paragraph said that it didn’t apply to any “authorities under the act of October 6, 1917, as amended.” Chuck Morse wrote in his article “Is the ‘National Emergency of FDR’ Still In Place?” that: “This was a classic example of sleight of hand. In fact, Congress exempted all laws, based on the emergency of 1933 that were already in place. Rather than being based on the authority of the President under a ‘national emergency’ these federal laws would now be codified as a permanent part of the U.S. Federal Code. Included among the codified laws would be Section 5(b) of the Trading with the Enemy

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Act, which classifies the American citizen as an enemy of the government.” The declaration of a National Emergency can legally empower the President to suspend the Constitution. According to Senate Report 93-549, the “President may: Seize property, organize commodities, assign military forces abroad, institute Martial Law, seize and control transportation and communication, regulate operation of private enterprise, restrict travel, and in a plethora of particular ways, control the lives of all American citizens.” President Carter declared a new national emergency in 1979 during the Iranian hostage crisis, and Bill Clinton, during his two terms in office, declared 12 National Emergencies. A 1976 Senate report noted that there were 470 extraordinary grants of power to the President, during times of National Emergency. However, because of Executive Orders 6073, 6102 (gold confiscation), 6111, 6260 and 6262 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, it is believed that the District went bankrupt in 1933, and since then, has undergone various “reorganizations.” The Secretary of Treasury was appointed “receiver” in the bankruptcy (Reorganization Plan, No. 26, 5 U.S.C.A. 903; Public Law 94-564; Legislative History, pg. 5967). Representative James A. Traficant, Jr. of Ohio, according to the Congressional Record (pg. H1303), on March 17, 1993, said: “Mr. Speaker, we are now in Chapter 11. Members of Congress are official Trustees presiding over the greatest reorganization of any bankrupt entity in world history, the United States government…” It was in 1933 that FDR enacted the Social Security Act, which effectively redefined the word “employee” to indicate “government worker.” Then came the Public Salary Tax Act in 1939, which gave the U.S. Government the power to levy a tax on those people who were either government employees, or who lived and worked in a “Federal Area.” A year later, the Buck Act was passed, which gave the U.S. Government the power to create a “Federal Area” so they could levy the Public Salary Tax. Since it was unconstitutional to tax anyone outside of the jurisdiction of the District, this Act, in Section 110(d) and (e), made the land within the territorial boundaries of a State, a “Federal Area.” This, in

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effect, created a paper state, known as a Federal Area, for the purposes of the U.S. Government; and those people who were sovereign state citizens, now found themselves also living in this Federal Area. Now the U.S. Government had to make that citizen one of their subjects by bringing them under the jurisdiction of the District. This was accomplished by deceiving the citizen into entering an adhesion contract with the U.S. Government, such as a Social Security application, an Income Tax form, a Driver’s License application, a Bank Account application, and other similar things. Contrary to what most people believe, it is not mandatory to apply for a Social Security number; however, in order for a sovereign state citizen to be eligible for Social Security benefits, they have to waive the rights given to them under our Republic. Probably, the most incredible example of the adhesion contract is the Income Tax system. In 1884, it was accepted that the “property which every man has is his own labor (and) as it is the original foundation of all other property, so it is the most sacred and inviolable.” Therefore, since ‘wages’ are received as compensation for labor, it can not be legally taxed. ‘Income,’ however, is the process of profiting from a business (someone else’s labor) or investments, and is taxable, as in a Corporation, which is an artificial entity which is given the right to exist by the State. The Constitution only allows the Congress to collect taxes, and that is limited to a uniform excise tax on gasoline, alcohol, tobacco, telephone bills, firearms, and tires, things revolving in one way or another around interstate commerce. The payment of these taxes are voluntary, because they are based on consumption. These funds go directly to the U.S. Treasury to pay the expenses of the country. Because we live in a Republic, the Internal Revenue Service Code, Title 26 USC, could not be passed into law by the Congress, and instead, was passed only as a Resolution, which is a formal expression of intent that was to pertain only to citizens of the District. So, how do they make you a citizen of the District? In the upper left-hand corner of the 1040 Federal Income Tax form is a place to put your preprinted address label, which is designated with the words “label here.” However, to the left of that is the

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word “label,” which seemingly identifies the entire section as a whole. However, the word “label” actually has another legal meaning that has nothing to do with your name and address. According to Black’s Law Dictionary, “label” is defined as: “A slip of ribbon, parchment, or paper, attached as a codicil to a deed or other writing to hold the appended seal.” Since your “seal” is your signature, the “label” is actually a codicil which indicates you are waiving your constitutional right as a sovereign state citizen to become a citizen of the District and its Federal Area. Although the Internal Revenue Service is considered to be a Bureau of the Department of Treasury, like the Federal Reserve, they are not part of the Federal Government (Diversified Metal Products v. IRS et al. CV-93-405E-EJE U.S.D.C.D.I.; Public Law 94564; Senate Report 94-1148, pg. 5967; Reorganization Plan No. 26; Public Law 102-391), and in fact were incorporated in Delaware in 1933. It is pointed out that all official Federal Government mail is sent postage-free because of the franking privilege, however, the IRS has to pay their own postage, which indicates that they are not a government entity. They are in fact a collection agency for the Federal Reserve, because they do not collect any taxes for the U.S. Treasury. All funds collected are turned over to the Federal Reserve. If you have ever sent a check to the IRS, you will find that it was endorsed over to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve, in turn, deposits the money with the International Monetary Fund, an agency of the United Nations (Black’s Law Dictionary, 6th edition, pg. 816), where it is filtered down to the International Development Association (see Treasury Delegation Order No. 91), which is part of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, commonly known as the World Bank. Therefore, it is now clear, that the American people are unknowingly contributing to the coming World Government. The Secretary of the Treasury is the “Governor” of the International Monetary Fund (Public Law 94-564, supra, pg. 5942; U.S. Government Manual 1990/91, pgs. 480-81; 26 U.S.C.A. 7701(a)(11); Treasury Delegation Order No. 150-10); the United States has not had a Treasury since 1921 (41 Stat. Ch. 214, pg. 654); and for all intents and purposes the U.S. Treasury is the IMF

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(Presidential Documents, Volume 29, No. 4, pg. 113; 22 U.S.C. 285288). Chief Justice John Marshall said: “The power to tax involves the power to destroy.” Alan Keyes, the former ambassador to the UN, who ran for President in 2000 said: “We ought to have realized that the income tax is utterly incompatible with liberty. It is actually a form of slavery. A slave is someone the fruit of whose labor is controlled by somebody else. A slave is not somebody with nothing. Rather, he has only what the master lets him have … Under the income tax, the government takes whatever percentage of the earner’s income it wants. The income tax, therefore, represents our national surrender to the government of control over all the money we earn. There are, in principle, no restrictions to the pre-emptive claim the government has.” The income tax was intended to rob the earnings of the low and middle class; or as the saying goes, “the more you make, the more they take.” However, the tax didn’t touch the huge fortunes of Illuminati members. The tax was an indication that the U.S. was heading for a planned war, because they couldn’t go into a war without money. Since the tax provided less than 5% of total Federal revenues, increases were later made to accommodate World War I, FDR’s New Deal, and World War II. In July, 1943, workers in this country were subject to a payroll withholding tax in the form of a “victory tax” that was touted as a temporary tax to boost the economy because of the War, and would later be discontinued. However, the deduction remained because it forced compliance. FOUNDATIONS Under the guise of philanthropy, the Illuminati avoided taxation by transferring their wealth to tax-free foundations. Foundations are either state or federally chartered. The first was chartered by Benjamin Franklin in 1790, in Philadelphia and Boston, from a $4,444.49 fund, to make loans “to young married artificers (artisans) of good character.” In 1800, the Magdalen Society was established in Philadelphia, “to ameliorate that

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distressed condition of those unhappy females who have been seduced from the paths of virtue, and are desirous of returning to a life of rectitude.” In 1846, the Smithsonian Institution was established by the bequest of English scientist James Smithson “for the increase and diffusion of knowledge among men.” The Peabody Education Fund was initiated in 1867 by banker George Peabody, to promote education in the South. Before 1900, there were only 18 foundations; from 1910-19, there were 76; during the 1920’s, 173; the 1930’s, 288; the 1940’s, 1,638; and during the 1950’s, there were 2,839 foundations. United Press International (UPI) reported on July 19, 1969, that the top 596 foundations had an income that was twice the net earnings of the country’s 50 largest commercial banking institutions. According to Rep. Wright Patman, in a report to the 87th Congress, it is because of the existence of foundations, that “only one-third of the income of the nation is actually taxed.” Some of the important foundations are: Ford Foundation (Ford Motor Co.), Rockefeller Foundation (Standard Oil), Duke Endowment (Duke family fortune), John A. Hartford Foundation (Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea), W. K. Kellogg Foundation (the Kellogg Cereals), Carnegie Corp. (Carnegie Steel), Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (General Motors), Moody Foundation (W. L. Moody’s oil, realty, newspapers, and bank holdings), Lilly Endowment (Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals), Pew Memorial Trust (Sun Oil Co. or Sunoco), and the Danforth Foundation (Purina Cereals), which all have assets of well over $100 million. The first Congressional Committee to investigate the tax-free foundations was the Cox Committee in 1952, led by Rep. Eugene E. Cox, a Democrat from Georgia. Its purpose was to find out which “foundations and organizations are using their resources for purposes other than the purposes for which they were established, and especially to determine which such foundations and organizations are using their resources for un-American and subversive activities or for purposes not in the interest or tradition of the United States.” Cox discovered that officers and trustees of some foundations were Communists, and that these foundations had given grants to Communists or Communist-controlled organizations. A former

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Communist official, Maurice Malkin, testified that in 1919 they were trying “to penetrate these organizations (foundations), if necessary take control of them and their treasuries ... that they should be able to finance the Communist Party propaganda in the United States.” During the investigation, Cox died, and the facts were glossed over in a cover-up. Another member of the Committee, Rep. Carroll Reece of Tennessee, the former Chairman of the Republican National Committee, forced another investigation in 1953, to see if foundations were being used “for political purposes, propaganda, or attempts to influence legislation.” The Washington Post called the investigation “unnecessary,” and that it was “stupidly wasteful of public funds.” Reece even referred to a “conspiracy.” The Eisenhower Administration was clearly against the probe. Three of the four who were selected for the Committee, with Reece, were House members who had voted against the investigation. Rep. Wayne Hays of Ohio worked from the inside to stall the investigation. During one 3-hour session, he interrupted the same witness 246 times. He prohibited evidence discovered by two of its investigators from being used. Rene A. Wormser, legal counsel to the Committee, revealed why, in his 1958 book Foundations: Their Power and Influence: “Mr. Hays told us one day that ‘the White House’ had been in touch with him and asked him if he would cooperate to kill the Committee.” Wormser also revealed that the Committee had discovered that these foundations were using their wealth to attack the basic structure of our Constitution and Judeo-Christian ethics; and that the influence of major foundations had “reached far into government, into the policy-making circles of Congress and into the State Department.” Reece’s Special Committee to Investigate Tax Exempt Foundations discovered that many foundations were financing civil rights groups, liberal political groups, political extremist groups, and supporting revolutionary activities throughout the world. The Committee reported: “Substantial evidence indicates there is more than a mere close working together among some foundations operating in the international field. There is here, as in the general realm of social sciences, a close interlock. The Carnegie Corporation, the Carnegie

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Endowment for International Peace, the Rockefeller Foundation and, recently, the Ford Foundation, joined by some others, have commonly cross-financed, to a tune of many millions ... organizations concerned with internationalists, among them, the Institute of Pacific Relations, the Foreign Policy Association (which was “virtually a creature of the Carnegie Endowment”), the Council on Foreign Relations, the Royal Institute of International Affairs and others ... and that it happened by sheer coincidence stretches credulity.” On August 19, 1954, Reece summed up his investigation: “It has been said that the foundations are a power second only to that of the Federal Government itself ... Perhaps the Congress should now admit that the foundations have become more powerful, in some areas, at least, than the legislative branch of the Government.” The investigation ended in 1955, when funding was withheld. THE ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION

THE ROCKEFELLER FAMILY John Davison Rockefeller, Sr. (1839-1937) | John Davison Rockefeller, Jr. (1874-1960) | John Davison Rockefeller, III (1906-78) Nelson Rockefeller (1908-79) Laurance Rockefeller (1910- ) Winthrop Rockefeller (1912-73) David Rockefeller (1915- ) John Davison Rockefeller (1839-1937), grandfather of former Vice-President Nelson Aldrich Rockefeller, and David Rockefeller (head of the Chase Manhattan Bank) was the richest man of his time. He started out in 1859 as a produce merchant, turning to oil in 1865, at the age of 26. In 1870, when Standard Oil of Ohio was incorporated, Rockefeller controlled 21 out of 26 refineries in Cleveland. By 1871, Standard Oil was the largest refining company in the world. In 1879, he controlled over 90% of all refined oil sold in the country, with 20,000 producing wells, and 100,000 employees.

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In 1884, he moved his main office to New York City; and by 1885, Standard Oil virtually controlled the entire oil industry in the United States, and had set up branches in Western Europe and China. The Rockefellers and Rothschilds have been partners ever since the 1880’s, when Rockefeller was able to get a rebate on each barrel of oil he shipped over the Pennsylvania, Baltimore and Ohio railroads, which were owned by Kuhn, Loeb and Co. In 1888, details concerning the Rockefeller Oil Trust began to leak out in the newspapers. In Ohio, at the time, a company within the state could not own stock in a company in another state, which occurred when Rockefeller bought out smaller companies. Using the secret Trust, which was established in 1879, the trustees for the companies that had been taken over, the 37 Standard Oil stockholders, and Standard Oil of Ohio, relayed all out-of-state subsidiary stock to three clerks from Standard Oil. In 1882, the three “dummy” trustees, 42 Standard Oil stockholders, and Standard Oil of Ohio, transferred all its stock to nine trustees, who were controlled by Rockefeller. In March, 1892, the Ohio Supreme Court ordered Standard Oil to withdraw from the Trust, after Ohio and other states outlawed trusts. Rockefeller countered by moving Standard Oil to New Jersey, who allowed their corporations to hold stock in out-of-state companies, thus, Standard Oil of New Jersey became that holding Company. In 1889, Rockefeller helped establish, with a grant of $600,000, the University of Chicago. He promised to support the school for ten years, which he did, donating $34,708,375. In 1901, he incorporated the Rockefeller Institute for Medical Research (now Rockefeller University), with a grant of $200,000. In 1903, he established the Rockefeller General Education Board, which he donated $42 million to, within a two-year period (and $129 million in total). The Board was organized by Fred Gates, the front man for the Pillsbury flour company. In 1909, the Rockefeller Sanitation Commission was established, to which he gave $1 million. Rockefeller’s goal was for Standard Oil to be the world’s only refining company, and to that end, it was alleged that he blew up a competitor’s refinery in Buffalo, New York. He owned large blocks of stock in quite a few newspapers, including the Buffalo

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People’s Journal, the Oil City Derrick (in Pennsylvania), the Cleveland Herald, and the Cleveland News Leader. He had contracts with over 100 newspapers in Ohio, to print news releases and editorials furnished by a Standard Oil-controlled agency, in return for advertisement. He ‘owned’ several New Jersey and Ohio state legislators. Rep. Joseph Sibley, of Pennsylvania, was President of the Rockefeller-controlled Galena Signal Oil Co.; and in 1898, Rep. John P. Elkins, also of Pennsylvania, accepted a $5,000 bribe from Standard Oil. In 1904, Sen. Bois Penrose of Pennsylvania received a $25,000 bribe from Rockefeller, and Sen. Cornelius Bliss received $100,000. Others who received Standard Oil bribes: Sen. Matthew Quay (PA), Sen. Joseph B. Foraker (OH), Sen. Joseph Bailey (TX), Sen. Nathan B. Scott, Sen. Mark Hanna (OH), Sen. Stephen B. Elkins (WV), Rep. W. C. Stone (PA), and Sen. McLaurin (SC). President William McKinley, through Sen. Mark Hanna, was a pawn of Standard Oil and the bankers. The ‘rebates’ Rockefeller received from various railroads, were actually kickbacks. These rebates made it possible for him to keep his prices lower so he could bankrupt his competition. He said: “Competition is a sin.” Standard Oil also made kickbacks, in the form of stock, to railroad people, such as William H. Vanderbilt, who received stock without contributing any capital, as did various bankers who lent money freely to Standard Oil. Willie Winkfield, a Rockefeller messenger, sold evidence of Rockefeller’s bribery to William Randolph Hearst’s New York American, for $20,500, and Hearst revealed the information at election time, in an attempt to get the Rockefeller stooges out of office. In 1905, an exposé by Ida M. Tarbell, called The History of Standard Oil Co., which came on the heels of an 1894 book by Henry Demarest Lloyd, called Wealth Against Commonwealth, began to turn public opinion against Standard Oil. Robert M. LaFollette, Sr., in a speech to the Senate in March, 1908, said that fewer than 100 men controlled the business interests of the country. However, a few years later, through an analysis of the Directory of Directors, it was discovered that through interlocking directorates, less than a dozen men controlled the country’s business interests. Most notable were Rockefeller and

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Morgan. In March, 1910, Sen. Nelson Aldrich of Rhode Island, introduced a Bill of Incorporation for the Rockefeller Foundation, but it came at a time when there was an antitrust suit against Standard Oil, and the Bill was withdrawn. On May 15, 1911, Standard Oil was found to be in violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, and the U.S. Supreme Court ordered, in a 20,000 word decision, the breakup of Standard Oil of New Jersey. The Court said that Standard Oil wanted to establish a monopoly in order “to drive others from the field and exclude them from their right to trade,” and that “seven men and a corporate machine have conspired against their fellow citizens. For the safety of the Republic, we now decree that the dangerous conspiracy must be ended...” Standard Oil was forced to dissolve into 38 separate companies, including Standard Oil of Indiana (Amoco), Standard Oil of Ohio (Sohio), Standard Oil of Louisiana, Standard Oil of New Jersey (Exxon, which is one of the largest corporations in the world, controlling 321 other companies, including Humble Oil and Venezuela’s Creole Oil), Standard Oil of New York (Socony or Mobil); and others such as Continental Oil (Conoco), AtlanticRichfield (Arco), Gulf, Phillips 66, Texaco, and Marathon Oil, which were also Rockefeller-controlled companies. Rockefeller owned 25% of Standard Oil of New Jersey, which meant that he now owned 25% of all 38 Standard Oil subsidiaries. In 1914, the Congressional Record referred to Standard Oil as the “shadow government” and as the extent of its holdings became known, its value tripled. In May, 1913, after three years of Congressional opposition, the New York State Legislature voted to establish the Rockefeller Foundation (which was located in the Time-Life Building), “to promote the well-being of mankind throughout the world.” However, a 1946 report stated that the “challenge of the future is to make this one world.” The endowment to establish the Foundation totaled $182,851,000, and was given in securities, enabling the foundation to disperse over $1 billion, even though it is only third in total assets compared to the Ford and Johnson Foundations. In 1899, with an estimated wealth of $200,000,000, Rockefeller “retired.” But, only in regard to being involved in the day-to-day

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operation of the company. He didn’t officially retire until 1911, when he resigned as President of Standard Oil. He had become America’s first billionaire, yet when he died, he only left a taxable estate of $26,410,837.10, which after Federal and State taxes were levied, left about $16 million. The remainder of his fortune had been left to surviving relatives ($240 million), his sons ($465 million), and his foundations. Rockefeller, said to own 20% of American industry, between 1855 and his death in 1937, gave away nearly $550 million. In 1855, when he was 16, he gave $2.77 of his meager earnings to charity, 1856 ($19.31), 1857 ($28.37), 1858 ($43.85), 1859 ($72.22), 1860 ($107.35), 1861 ($259.97), 1865 ($1,012), 1869 ($5,000), 1871 ($6,860), 1879 ($29,000), 1880 ($32,865), 1884 ($119,000), 1891 ($500,000), 1892 ($1,500,000), 1893 ($1,472,122), 1907 ($39,170,480), 1909 ($71,453,231), 1913 ($45,499,367), 1914 ($67,627,095), and 1919 ($138,624,574). He gave $182,851,480 to the Rockefeller Foundation, $129,209,167 to the General Education Board, $73,985,313 to the Laura Spelman and Rockefeller Memorial Fund, and $60,673,409 to the Rockefeller Institute for Medical Research. John D. Rockefeller, Jr. (1874-1960), who was married to Abby Aldrich, daughter of Sen. Nelson Aldrich, according to a February, 1905 McClure’s magazine article, was part of a corrupt political machine. He continued the charitable tradition of his father. He spent over $40 million to buy up land and convert it to National Parks, donating it to the public. The most prominent of these parks is the Jackson Hole Preserve at the Grand Teton National Park in northeastern Wyoming. In 1926, he reconstructed the colonial town of Williamsburg, Virginia, spending $52.6 million to restore 81 colonial buildings, and rebuild 404 others from original plans, on their original foundations. Over 700 modern homes were torn down in the 83 acre area to bring the 18th century town back to life. He also built 45 other buildings, including three hotels to serve the public, and planted gardens. In 1929, he began building the Rockefeller Center in New York City, a complex of 14 buildings, at a cost of $125 million, which was to surpass the stature of the Dupont’s Empire State Building. The Rockefeller empire is run from the 55th and 56th floors of the RCA building, at 30 Rockefeller Plaza.

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Rockefeller was quoted to have said: “So it may come to pass that someday ... no one will speak of ‘my country,’ but all will speak of ‘our world’.” He pushed his sons into five different areas of influence: John III, into philanthropy; Nelson, into government (4-term Governor of New York, and Vice-President under Ford); Laurance, into business; Winthrop, into oil (also 2-term Governor of Arkansas); and David, into banking (Chairman of the Chase Manhattan Bank and Director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York). The Rockefellers, undeniably the richest family in America, increased their fortune by marrying into other wealthy and influential families. By 1937, there existed “an almost unbroken line of biological relationships from the Rockefellers through onehalf of the wealthiest sixty families in the nation.” Percy Rockefeller (John, Jr.’s cousin), married Isabel Stillman, daughter of James A. Stillman, President of National City Bank, and William G. Rockefeller (another cousin), married S. Elsie Stillman. Ethel Geraldine Rockefeller married Marcellus Hartley Dodge, which linked Standard Oil and National City Bank, to the $50,000,000 fortune of the Remington Arms Company and the Phelps Dodge Corp. J. Stillman Rockefeller (grand nephew of John, Sr.) married Nancy C. S. Carnegie, the grand niece of Andrew Carnegie. Their son was named Andrew Carnegie Rockefeller. Edith Rockefeller (John, Jr.’s sister), married Harold F. McCormick, an heir to the International Harvester Co. fortune. Their son, Fowler, grandson to John, Sr. and Cyrus McCormick (who invented the Reaper), married Fifi Stillman, the divorced wife of James Stillman. Nelson Aldrich Rockefeller, was married to Mary Todhunter Clark, the granddaughter of the President of the Pennsylvania Railroad. They were later divorced. Winthrop Rockefeller married Jeanette Edris, a hotel and theater heiress; and John (Jay) D. Rockefeller IV (one of John, Jr.’s grandsons), the family’s only Democrat (2-term Governor, and later U.S. Senator, of West Virginia), married Sharon Percy, the

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daughter of Sen. Charles Percy, who had been one of the Senate’s most influential members. All together, the Rockefeller family had been joined in marriage to the Stillman, Dodge, McAlpin, McCormick, Carnegie, and Aldrich family fortunes, and its wealth has been estimated to be well over $2 billion. Some estimates even claim it to be as high as $20 billion. To compare, John Paul Getty, Howard Hughes, and H. L. Hunt, had fortunes between $2-$4 billion; and the Duponts and Mellons had fortunes between $3-$5 billion. Ever since the TNEC hearings in 1937, which convened for the purpose of finding out who was controlling the American economy, the Rockefellers had been able to avoid any sort of accounting in regard to their vast assets and holdings. That ended in December, 1974, when Nelson Rockefeller was nominated to be Vice-President. Two University of California professors, Charles Schwartz and William Domhoff, circulated a report called “Probing the Rockefeller Fortune” which indicated that 15 employees working out of room 5600 of the RCA building had positions on the boards of almost 100 corporations that had total assets of $70 billion. This was denied by the family, and in an unprecedented event, a family spokesman, J. Richardson Dilworth, appeared before the U.S. House of Representatives’ Judiciary Committee during the 1975 ‘Hearings into the Nomination of Nelson Rockefeller to be Vice-President of the United States’ to document the family’s wealth, which he said only amounted to $1.3 billion. Part of the Rockefeller’s financial holdings consists of real estate, foremost being the 4,180 acre family estate at Pocantico Hills, north of New York City, which has 70 miles of private roads, 75 buildings, an underground archives, and close to 500 servants, guards, gardeners and chauffeurs. They also maintain over 100 residences in all parts of the world. Besides investments held in personal trusts, the family also holds stock in numerous companies. Some of their major holdings: Chase Manhattan Bank, American Telephone & Telegraph (AT & T), Eastman Kodak, IBM, General Electric, Texas Instruments, Xerox, Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing, Monsanto Chemical, Aluminum Co. of America (Alcoa), Armour, Bethlehem Steel, Chrysler, DuPont, General Motors, International Paper, Polaroid, Sears and Roebuck,

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Standard Oil of California (Chevron), Standard Oil of New York (Mobil), Standard Oil of Indiana, U.S. Steel, International Basic Economy Corp., International Harvester, Quaker Oats, WheelingPittsburgh Steel, Itek, Federated Department Stores, Walgreen Stores, Transcontinental Gas Pipeline, Consolidated Edison, Anaconda Copper Co., General Foods, Pan American World Airways, Colgate-Palmolive, E. I. du Pont de Nemours, W. R. Grace, Inc., Corning Glass Works, Owens Corning Fiberglass, Cummins Engine, Hewlett-Packard, R. R. Donnelly and Son, Dow Chemical, Teledyne, Inc., Warner-Lambert, Westinghouse, International Telephone and Telegraph (IT & T), Motorola, S. S. Kresge, Texaco, National Cash Register, Avon, American Home Products, Delta Airlines, Braniff Airlines, Northwest Airlines, United Airlines, and Burlington Industries. The financial core of the family fortune included the Chase Manhattan Bank, Citicorp (which grew out of the Rockefellercontrolled First National City Bank), the Chemical Bank of New York, First National Bank of Chicago, Metropolitan Equitable, and New York Mutual Life Insurance. By the 1970’s, Rockefellercontrolled banks accounted for about 25% of all assets of the 50 largest commercial banks in the country, and about 30% of all assets of the 50 largest life insurance companies. The Chase Manhattan Bank, however, remains the supreme symbol of Rockefeller domination. Founded in 1877 by John Thompson, the Chase National Bank was named after Salmon P. Chase (Lincoln’s Secretary of Treasury). It was taken over by the Rockefellers in a merger with their Equitable Trust Co., whose President was Winthrop Aldrich, son of Sen. Nelson Aldrich. In 1955, it merged with the Bank of Manhattan (which had been controlled by Warburg; and Kuhn, Loeb and Co), the oldest banking operation in America (founded in 1799 by Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr), which had 67 branches in New York, and $1.6 billion in assets. Although it was only the sixth largest bank (over $98,000,000 in assets), it was the most powerful. In 1961, the Chase Manhattan Bank Plaza was built in downtown Manhattan, at a cost of $125,000,000. It is 64 stories high, with five basement floors, the lowest of which contains the largest bank vault in the world.

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They had 28 foreign branches, and over 50,000 banking offices in more than 50 countries, and had a controlling interest in many of the largest corporations in America. Some of those that were listed in the Patman Report: American National Bank and Trust, Safeway Stores, Reynolds Metals, White Cross Stores, J. C. Penney, Northwest Airlines, Eastern Airlines, TWA, Pan American World Airways, Western Airlines, Consolidated Freightways, Roadway Express, Ryder, Wyandotte Chemicals, Armstrong Rubber, A. H. Robins, G. D. Searle, Sunbeam, Beckman Instruments, Texas Instruments, Sperry Rand, Boeing, Diebold, Cummins Engine, Bausch and Lomb, CBS-TV, International Basic Economy Corp., Addressograph-Multigraph, Aetna Life, American General Insurance Co., Allegheny-Ludlum Steel, National Steel. Men from the Chase Manhattan’s Board of Directors have also sat on the Boards of many of the largest corporations, which have created a system of interlocking directorates. Some of these have been: Allegheny-Ludlum Steel, U.S. Steel, Metropolitan Life, Travelers Insurance, Continental Insurance, Equitable Life Assurance, General Foods, Chrysler Corp., Standard Oil of Indiana, New York Times, Cummins Engine, Burlington Industries, ABCTV, Standard Oil of New Jersey, R. J. Reynolds Tobacco, Scott Paper, International Paper, International Basic Economy Corp., International Telephone & Telegraph, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Anaconda Copper, Allied Stores, Federated Department Stores, R. H. Macy, Colgate-Palmolive, Bell Telephone of Pennsylvania, Consolidated Edison of New York, DuPont, Monsanto, Borden, Shell Oil, Gulf Oil, Union Oil, Dow Chemical, Continental Oil, Union Carbide, and S. S. Kresge. Chase also owned or controlled the Banco del Commerce (with over 100 branches in Columbia and Peru), Banco Continental (with about 40 branches in Peru), Banco Atlantida (with 20 branches in the Honduras), Nederlandsche Crediet (with over 60 branches in the Netherlands), and Standard Bank Group (with over 1,200 branches in 17 African countries). Through a subsidiary, the Chase Investment Corp., they owned a sheep and cattle raising operation in Australia, hotels in Puerto Rico and Liberia, a ready-mix concrete facility in Brazil, a cotton textile mill in Nigeria, a paint factory in Venezuela, a steel mill

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in Turkey, a petrochemical plant in Argentina, a bus line in the Virgin Islands, and bowling alleys in England. Our tax dollars, through the Export-Import Bank, International Monetary Fund, Cooperation for Overseas Investment, and the International Stabilization Fund, are used to give aid to other countries, some who were communist. Millions of dollars were given to Yugoslavia, including hundreds of jets, many of which ended up being given to Castro in Cuba. Chase, and the Export-Import Bank financed 90% of the $2 billion loan to build the Kama River truck complex in Russia, which was equipped with the world’s largest industrial computer system, with the capability of producing up to 200,000 ten-ton trucks a year. A U.S. Government official who toured the facility, reported that V-12 diesel engines were being produced there, and said: “There is only one vehicle in Russia that uses that type of engine, and that’s a Russian battle tank.” Besides the production of trucks, they also have the capability of producing jeeps, military transports and rocket launchers. The repayment period for the loan was twelve years, with a 4-1/2 year grace period. The loan repayment was guaranteed by the U.S. taxpayers through government agencies like the Overseas Private Investment Corp., and the Foreign Credit Insurance Association. Chase Manhattan and the Bank of America lent about $36 million for the Bechtel Corp. to build and equip an international Trade Center in Moscow, which had been arranged by Armand Hammer of Occidental Petroleum, a personal friend of Lenin, and son of one of the founders of the U.S. Communist Party. The Export-Import Bank, and other private American banks also put up all but $40 million for a $400 million fertilizer plant in Russia. In 1967, the International Basic Economy Corp. (with 140 subsidiaries and affiliates), owned by all five Rockefeller Brothers, run by Richard Aldrich (grandson of Sen. Nelson Aldrich), and Rodman Rockefeller (son of Nelson Rockefeller, and a CFR member); and Tower International, Inc., headed by Cyrus S. Eaton, Jr., a Cleveland financier (who was the son of a man who started his career as secretary to John D. Rockefeller, later making his own fortune), joined to promote trade among the Iron Curtain countries. In 1969 the IBEC announced that N. M. Rothschild and Sons of

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London had become a partner. This partnership built a $50 million aluminum production center in Russia, and announced a multimillion plan for Russia and other Eastern European countries, which included the building of large hotels in Bucharest, Sofia, Budapest, Belgrade, Prague, and Warsaw; rubber plants, and a glass plant in Romania. In addition, Tower International made an agreement with the Soviet patent and licensing organization, Licensintorg, to promote Soviet-American trade, which up to that time, was done by Amtorg Trading Corp., the official Soviet agency in America. This gave the Rockefellers and Eatons complete control over what technology was sent to Russia. David Rockefeller, the head of the Chase Manhattan, and the family patriarch, controls many secondary interlocks which contribute to the family’s power and influence. Some of these have been: Firestone Tire & Rubber Co., Honeywell, Inc., Northwest Airlines, Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Co., Allied Chemical Corp., General Motors, Chrysler Corp., International Basic Economy Corp., R. H. Macy and Co., Mutual Benefit Life Insurance Co. of New York, American Express Co., HewlettPackard, Exxon, Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S., Federated Department Stores, General Electric, Scott Paper, AT & T, Burlington Industries, Wachovia Corp., R. J. Reynolds Industries, U.S. Steel Corp., Metropolitan Life Insurance Co., May Department Stores, Sperry Rand Corp., and Standard Oil of Indiana. On July 9, 1968, the New York Times reported on a study by a House Banking Subcommittee, headed by Rep. Wright Patman of Texas, which said: “A few banking institutions are in a position to exercise significant influence, and perhaps even control, over some of the largest business enterprises in the nation.” Just as the Rockefellers have these extensive interlocking connections, other leading bankers, the other 107 directors of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, and members of the Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commission, and Bilderbergers, also have similar connections to these and hundreds of other major corporations. Now you can see how these like-minded individuals have been able to control American industry and business. Though the Rockefeller Foundation is the primary foundation of the family, there are many others operated by them, such as

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the Rockefeller Family Fund, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Martha Baird Rockefeller Fund for Music, Laura Spelman Rockefeller Memorial Fund, John D. Rockefeller III Fund, Rockefeller Institute, Standard Oil (Indiana) Foundation, Esso Education Foundation, American International Foundation for Economic and Social Development, China Medical Board, Agricultural Development Council, Government Affairs Foundation, Sealantic Fund (oversees contributions to religious charities “to strengthen and develop Protestant education” to which John Rockefeller, Jr. contributed $23 million), Jackson Preserve, Inc., Council on Economic and Cultural Development, and the Chase Manhattan Bank Foundation. There are some who believe that the Rockefellers may run close to 200 trusts and foundations. Prior to their appointments, Cyrus Vance (Secretary of State under Carter) and Dean Rusk (Secretary of State under Kennedy) were both Presidents of the Rockefeller Foundation. You have seen how powerful the Rockefeller family is, now let’s look at how the Rockefeller Foundation has used its money. Through interlocking directorates, the Foundation controls the Carnegie Endowment, and the Ford Foundation. While the Carnegie Endowment deals with education, as it relates to international matters; the Rockefeller Foundation concentrates on education, as it relates to domestic issues. It financed and influenced seven major policy-making agencies: Social Science Research Council (who explored the means of controlling people through scientific methods, such as mass media), Russian Institute of Columbia University (who developed methods of conditioning Americans into accepting a merging of the Soviet Union and America under a one-world government), Council on Foreign Relations, National Bureau of Economic Research (who worked closely with the Federal Reserve Board), Public Administration Clearing House (in Chicago), Brookings Institution, and the Institute of Pacific Relations (who was responsible for planning the communist subversion of America). The Rockefeller Foundation provided over $50,000 to fund the Building America textbook series, which played up Marxism, and sought to destroy “traditional concepts of American government.” Over 100 communist organizations contributed material, including

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the writings of over 50 communist writers. The California Legislature said that the books contained “purposely distorted references favoring Communism...” The Foundation contributed money to the pro-communist New School for Social Research in New York City, and funded projects for the communist-staffed Southern Christian Leadership Conference, led by Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. Rep. Cox said that the Rockefeller Foundation has “been used to finance individuals and organizations whose business it has been to get communism into private and public schools of the country, to talk down to America, and play up Russia...” The Foundation also funded the Kinsey Report, which heralded a new era of sexual immorality. The purpose of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, is the “support of efforts in the U.S. and abroad that contribute ideas, develop leaders, and encourage institutions in the transition to global interdependence.” In 1974, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund gave grants to: A.C.L.U. Foundation ($45,000); Atlantic Institute for International Affairs, in Paris ($10,000); Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ($60,000); Columbia University ($9,500); Council on Foreign Relations ($125,000), Foreign Policy Association ($20,000); International Institute for Strategic Studies, in London ($5000); NAACP ($145,000); National Council of Churches of Christ in the U.S.A. ($10,000); National Urban League ($100,000); Trilateral Commission ($50,000); U.N. Association of the U.S.A., Inc. ($25,000); United Negro College Fund, Inc. ($10,000); and the U.S. Conference for the World Council of Churches, Inc. ($2,500).

THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT Andrew Carnegie (1835-1919) came to the United States as a poor immigrant from Scotland in 1848, and never became an American citizen. He built the Carnegie Steel Corporation, which he sold to J. P. Morgan for $500 million, who incorporated the company into the United States Steel Corporation in 1901, enabling Carnegie to retire and concentrate on his philanthropic activities. In 1889, William Torrey Harris, the U.S. Commissioner of Education, told a high-ranking railroad official that the schools were being scientifically designed not to overeducate children. He believed that the schools should alienate children from their parents

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and religion. In 1890, Carnegie wrote eleven essays which were published under the title The Gospel of Wealth. The underlying premise was that the free-enterprise system had been locked-up by men such as himself, J.P. Morgan, and John D. Rockefeller, and that they not only owned everything, but also controlled the government. His worry, was that subsequent generations would realize this, and work against them. His solution was to control the education system, and to create a direct relationship between the amount of education a person had, and how good of a job they could get. Therefore, this created a motivation for children to attend school, where they would be taught only what the social engineers of this country wanted them to know. This was to be accomplished by instituting the educational system developed by Prussia between 1808 and 1819. German Philosopher Johann Gottlieb Fichte (1762-1814) in his “Addresses to the German Nation” (1807-08) said that he did not trust parental influence and preferred education to be carried out in a “separate and independent” environment controlled by the state. Prussia became the first government to have compulsory education, setting up a three-tiered system. The children of the elite, about one-half of one percent, went to schools called academies, and were taught to think and be independent. About 5-1/2% went to Realschulen, where they were partially taught how to think. The other 94% went to Volkschulen, where the idea of being a follower and a good citizen was stressed. This system of education was brought to the United States through the effort of a coalition of big business led by Carnegie, J.P. Morgan, and Rockefeller; major universities like Columbia, Johns Hopkins, the University of Wisconsin, the University of Michigan, and the University of Chicago; and large foundations like Carnegie, Rockefeller, Ford, Mellon, Peabody, Sage, and Whitney. The success in creating an organized compulsory educational system in this country has allowed the elite of this country to prevent each generation from truly understanding how this country is actually run, thus keeping them from doing anything about it. This ‘dumbing-down’ has enabled the government to more easily assimilate the people of this country into a population which can be easily deceived and controlled.

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John Dewey, known as the “Father of American Education,” was a Socialist, and a founding member of the Intercollegiate Socialist Society (who changed their name to League for Industrial Democracy, which he became the President of), and one of the 34 signers of the Humanist Manifesto in 1933. In his My Pedagogic Creed (1897) and The School and Society (1899), he expressed his belief at how the schools should be instrumental in developing a socialist society in America.” His system of ‘progressive education’ would deemphasize academics, and use psychology to do that. The July, 1908 Hibbert Journal quoted him as saying: “Our schools … are performing an infinite significant religious work. They are promoting the social unity out of which in the end genuine religious unity must grow.” With a grant of $27,000,000, Carnegie established the Carnegie Institute of Technology in Pittsburgh, in 1900, which became the Carnegie-Mellon University in 1967, when it merged with the Mellon Institute, which had been founded in 1913. In 1905, he established the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, which, within a 20 year period, gave over $20 million to retiring teachers (and widows) at universities and technical schools in the United States and Canada to support the profession and encourage higher education. In 1904, in the U.S., and 1908 in the United Kingdom, he set up the Carnegie Hero Fund to reward heroic deeds by civilian citizens, and gave out close to $500,000,000. He also established the world renowned Carnegie Hall, and over 2,000 public libraries. He was also a major supporter of the Tuskogee Institute in Alabama, which was founded by Booker T. Washington. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace was established in 1910, to promote international peace and bring about the abolition of war; and the Carnegie Corporation of New York in 1911 (with a grant of $125,000,000), was set up “to promote the advancement and diffusion of knowledge and understanding among the people of the United States by aiding technical schools, institutions of higher learning, libraries, scientific research, hero funds, useful publications, and by such other agencies and means as shall time to time be found appropriate therefore.” With such a history of philanthropic contributions, the Carnegie Endowment,

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on its face, appeared to be innocent. However, its goal of promoting international peace, was just a ruse to disguise its true purpose to promote one-world government. The first three Presidents of the group were: Elihu Root, socialist and former Secretary of State under President Theodore Roosevelt, who was a leading advocate of the League of Nations; he was succeeded in 1925 by Nicholas Murray Butler, the former President of Columbia University; and then Alger Hiss, the communist who helped found the United Nations. Their President during the 1960’s, was Joseph E. Johnson (a member of the CFR), a close friend of Hiss, who was known as the “permanent unofficial Secretary of State.” He worked closely with the Donner Foundation, which financed the Temple of Understanding, an occult organization connected to the Lucis Trust in England (a group of Satan worshipers with ties to the Theosophical Society). Members of the Temple met at the Endowment headquarters in the United Nations Plaza. Among their members: Robert McNamara (Secretary of Defense under Kennedy and Johnson), Eleanor Roosevelt, Thomas Watson (President of IBM), Max Lerner, James Linen (of Time-Life), Norman Thomas, James A. Pike, Ellsworth Bunker, and John D. Rockefeller IV. The 1934 Yearbook of the Carnegie Endowment, said that they were “an unofficial instrument of international policy, taking up here and there the ends of international problems and questions which the governments find it difficult to handle, and ... reaching conclusions ... which officially find their way into the policies of government.” Norman Dodd, who in July, 1953, was appointed as the research director of the Special Congressional Committee to Investigate Tax-Exempt Foundations, said he discovered that the oldest tax exempt foundations were established before the initiation of income taxes, therefore they existed for a different purpose. He examined minutes of the Board of Trustees, and found that for the first year, the members concentrated on whether there was any means more effective than war to alter the life of the people of a nation. They concluded that to get America into an upcoming war, they had to control the diplomatic machinery of the State Department. Dodd discovered that all high-level appointments in

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the State Department took place only after they had been cleared through a group called the Council of Learned Societies, which was established by the Carnegie Endowment. He saw in the minutes of the Carnegie Board, record of a note to President Wilson, requesting that he “see to it that the War does not end too quickly.” Syndicated columnist Joseph Kraft, writing in Harper’s in July, 1958, said that records indicated that the Carnegie trustees hoped to involve the U.S. in a world war to set the stage for world government. Dodd said they wanted “to bring the idea of ‘oneworld’ (government) to the point where it is acceptable to the people of this country. That is the primary aim, and everything that has happened since then is a means to that one end.” Their memos indicated that they believed their efforts were successful, because the war “had brought about a change in the American psyche.” In the archives of the Endowment, Dodd discovered that they felt that the “only way to maintain control of the population was to obtain control of education in the U.S. They realized this was a prodigious task so they approached the Rockefeller Foundation with the suggestion that they go in tandem and that portion of education which could be considered as domestically oriented be taken over by the Rockefeller Foundation and that portion which was oriented to international matters be taken over by the Carnegie Endowment.” Dodd said that “they decided that the success of this program lay in an alteration in the matter in which American history was to be presented.” The Guggenheim Foundation agreed to award fellowships to historians recommended by the Carnegie Endowment, and a group of 20 were assembled, and sent to London, where they were briefed and became founding members of the American History Association. In 1928, the A.H.A. was given a grant of $400,000 by Carnegie to write a 7-volume study on the direction the nation was to take. The secret of its success would be that it would be done gradually. Rene Wormser, legal counsel to Reece’s Committee, said that the Carnegie Endowment was attempting to mold the minds of our children by deciding “what should be read in our schools and colleges.” He also described how the Rockefeller Foundation, the Ford Foundation, the Carnegie Endowment, and

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the Carnegie Corporation jointly sponsor conferences to push the goals of the United Nations. The investigation by Reece’s Special House Committee, found that the Carnegie Corporation financed the writing and publication of the Proper Study of Mankind by Stuart Chase, the book praised by the communist agents Harry Dexter White and Lauchlin Currie, which outlined an “ideal” society in which the individual is suppressed. Over 50,000 copies of the book were distributed by the foundation to libraries and scholars. They also gave a $340,000 grant to print a 17-volume study on American education by Dr. George Counts, which was later called “an educational program for a socialist America.” In November, 1953, Norman Dodd, Director of Research for the House Special Committee investigating the tax-exempt foundations, was told by Roman Gaither, President of the Ford Foundation, “that most of the men who are now running the foundations, formerly worked for the State Department, the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Association, the Marshall Plan or other foreign relief agencies, and that in those capacities, they were working under instructions from the White House to bring about such sociological, economic, and political changes, as would make union with communist Russia easy and comfortable for the American people. Now, in the foundations, we are working toward the same objectives.” He said that the Ford Foundation operated under directives which “emanate from the White House,” and that the “substance of the directives under which we operate is that we shall use our grant-making power so to alter life in the United States that we can be comfortably merged with the Soviet Union.” The Fund for the Republic (one of the six other Ford-controlled foundations), founded in 1953 under the direction of Robert G. Hoffman and Robert M. Hutchins, are known for their attacks on the internal security program of America, and criticism towards the FBI and Congressional committees investigating communism. They were responsible for ending the anti-communist fervor that was sweeping the country. They were also responsible for the establishment of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, in Santa Barbara, California, who developed a Constitution for one-world government. Robert McNamara, an executive with the

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Ford Motor Co., became the Foundation’s President in 1960, later resigning to serve as the Secretary of Defense (1961-68) in the Kennedy and Johnson Administration. He helped lay the foundation for the SALT treaty. In 1968, he became President of the World Bank. McGeorge Bundy, a CFR member, the Chief Advisor for Foreign Affairs for Kennedy and Johnson, became President of the Foundation in 1966. He ushered in an era of social unrest by announcing that the Negro movement, “the first of the nation’s problems,” would be his top priority. THE STOCK MARKET CRASH AND DEPRESSION The Federal Reserve Board held a secret meeting on May 18, 1920, to plan a depression. Large banks began calling in loans, causing stocks to drop from a high of 138.12 in 1919, to a low of 66.24 in 1921. When the value of government bonds plummeted, they were forced to call in even more loans. When thousands of the banks’ customers could not pay their notes, the banks seized their assets. After 1922, profits rose, and with the Federal Reserve’s ability to lend ten times more than their reserves, credit was easily obtained. From 1923 to 1929, $8 billion was sliced off of the deficit. The Reserve expanded the money supply by 62%, and this excess money was used to bid the stock market up to fantastic heights. The media began publicizing that there was an enormous profit to be made from the stock market. This push was planned at a meeting of the International Bankers in 1926, who made the boom possible, and who was going to bring about financial disaster later. In 1928, the House hearings on the Stabilization of the Purchasing Power of the Dollar, revealed that the Federal Reserve Board had met with the heads of various European central banks at a secret luncheon in 1927 to plan what they believed may be a major crash. On February 6, 1929, after Montagu Norman, Chairman of the Bank of England, came to the United States to meet with Andrew Mellon, the Secretary of Treasury, the Reserve reversed its monetary policy by raising the discount rate, and during the next few months, after Paul Warburg had issued a tip in March, 1929, Illuminati members, who knew what the future held, got their money out of the stock market, reinvesting it in gold and silver. In the year before the crash, 500 banks failed.

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Jane A. Bullock : Introduction to Emergency Management, Amsterdam, Butterworth-Heinemann, 2003. Jilovsky, C. : Disasters in Libraries, Prevention and Control, Cooperative Action by Victorian Academic Libraries Ltd, Melbourne, 1994. John D. : The Last Great Subsistence Crisis in the Western World, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1977. Jones S. : Building an Emergency Plan: A Guide for Museums and other Cultural Institutions, Getty Conservation Institute, Los Angeles, 1999 Jordan, William : The Great Famine, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1996. Julia Niebuhr : Handbook for the Recovery of Water Damaged Business Records, Prairie Village, KS, Association of Records Managers and Administrators, 1986. Kahn, Miriam B. : Disaster Response and Planning for Libraries, Chicago, American Library Association, 1998. Keyes K.E. : Emergency Management for Records and Information Programs, ARMA International, Kansas, 1997. Laskin, David : Braving the Elements: The Stormy History of American Weather, New York, Doubleday, 1996. Ling, Ted. : Solid, Safe, Secure: Building Archives Repositories in Australia, National Archives of Australia, Canberra, 1998. Lundquist, Eric G. : Salvage of Water Damaged Books, Documents, Micrographic and Magnetic Media, San Francisco, Document Reprocessors, 1986. McPhee, John : The Control of Nature, New York, Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 1989. Norris, Debra Hess : Disaster Recovery: Salvaging Photograph Collections, Philadelphia, PA, 1998. Odum, Howard T. : Environment, Power and Society, New York, Wiley-Interscience, 1971. Peter Woodrow : Rising From the Ashes, Developing Strategies in Times of Disaster, Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1989. Quarantelli, E.L. : What is a Disaster—Perspectives on the Question, New York, Routledge, 1998.

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Robert A. : Insurance for Libraries: Part I and Insurance for Libraries: Part II, Conservation Administration News, 1994. Saffady, William : Managing Vital Electronic Records, ARMA International, Kansas, 1992. Stephen J. : Fire in America: A Cultural History of Wildland Fire and Rural Fire, New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 1982. Stephen Reyna : The Political Economy of African Famine, Philadelphia, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1991 Stommel, Elizabeth : Volcano Weather: The Story of 1816, The Year Without a Summer, Newport, Seven Seas Press, 1983. Thomas A. : Integrated Pest Management for Libraries, IFLA Publications 40/41, Munich, K. G. Saur Verlag, 1987. Varley, Anne : Disaster, Development Environments, New York, J. Wiley, 1994. Walker, Bridget : Women and Emergencies, Oxford, Oxfam, l994. Waters, Peter : Procedures for Salvage of Water-Damaged Library Materials, Washington, DC, Library of Congress, 1979. Watson, Lyall : Earthwork: Essays on the Edge of Natural History, London, Hodder and Stoughton, 1956. Webster, Noah : A Brief History of Epidemic and Pestilential Diseases, with the Principle Phenomena of the Physical World which Proceed and Accompany Them, Hartford, Hudson and Goodwin, 1799. Worster, Donald : Dust Bowl: The Southern Plains in the 1930s, New York, Oxford University Press, 1979. Zenaida, D. : Women and Children During Disaster: Vulnerabilities and Capacities, Elaine Enarson and Betty Hearn Morrow, 1995.

Index

303

Index Foundation, 14, 21, 27, 234, 251, 276, 279, 281, 284, 285, 291, 292, 293, 295, 296, 297, 298, 299.

A Achievement, 35, 143, 175. Algorithm, 141, 144. Atmosphere, 206.

G

B Biological Weapons, 6. Biosphere, 37. Bioterrorism, 8, 24, 93.

C Commission, 168, 240, 241, 242, 291, 293. Committee, 157, 213, 215, 236, 248, 249, 250, 260, 261, 262, 279, 280, 287, Communism, 160, 293, 298.

204, 207, 209, 243, 261, 282, 164, 240, 252, 263, 296, 189,

172, 241, 254, 264, 297, 215,

196, 247, 259, 274, 298. 220,

D Distribution, 14, 19, 22, 40, 41, 43, 45, 62, 87, 91, 97, 122, 147. Doomsday Argument, 2, 43, 46, 50, 57, 59, 63, 64, 66, 80. Doomsday Weapon, 32.

F Foreign Relations, 157, 207, 209, 252, 253, 259, 262, 281, 291, 292, 293.

Global Catastrophe, 1, 15, 16, 24, 25, 29, 30, 31, 35, 36, 37, 38, 40, 60, 61, 64, 65, 66, 68, 69, 70, 71, 74, 75, 76, 78, 79, 81, 82, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 93, 95, 96, 97, 100, 101, 102, 103, 105, 106, 115, 116, 117, 118, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 132, 133, 134, 136, 137, 152, 154, 155, 158, 160. Global Risks, 1, 3, 10, 11, 16, 23, 26, 27, 28, 31, 32, 34, 36, 49, 50, 52, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 83, 84, 86, 87, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 98, 100, 101, 104, 106, 107, 108, 109, 112, 114, 116, 120, 121, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 152, 154. Global Warming, 24, 26, 34, 35, 36, 37, 62, 75, 87, 88, 97, 112, 125, 126, 135, 137. Government, 10, 26, 38, 157, 163, 164, 168, 169, 172, 175, 177, 181, 183, 190, 191, 192, 193, 195, 197, 198, 199, 200,

304 201, 208, 220, 227, 235, 245, 256, 264, 273, 281, 296,

Biological Disaster Management 202, 209, 222, 228, 236, 248, 258, 265, 275, 284, 297,

204, 212, 223, 229, 239, 250, 259, 266, 276, 286, 298,

205, 214, 224, 230, 240, 251, 260, 269, 277, 290, 299.

206, 215, 225, 233, 241, 252, 262, 271, 278, 292,

207, 217, 226, 234, 243, 253, 263, 272, 280, 294,

H Hitler, 237.

Nuclear Weapons, 2, 6, 13. Nuclear Winter, 24, 28, 135.

O Organisation, 26, 28, 31, 85, 101, 104, 110.

P Powers, 12, 28, 78, 95, 160, 162, 175, 186, 191, 206, 212, 252, 260, 273, 274. Protection, 1, 3, 4, 8, 10, 22, 35, 69, 77, 80, 87, 151, 163.

161, 210, 19, 105,

R

I Institution, 185, 191, 224, 241, 250, 268, 279, 292. Integration, 57, 58. Intelligence, 8, 26, 29, 42, 43, 137, 143, 145, 162, 171, 206, 237.

K

Revolution, 120, 164, 168, 171, 192, 197, 198, 202, 214, 216, 237, 269.

151, 179, 199, 222,

159, 180, 200, 226,

161, 181, 201, 235,

S Stock Market, 169, 239, 299. System Crisis, 16, 62, 111.

Karl Marx, 222.

M

T

Management, 5, 7, 25, 37, 38, 69, 70, 74, 81, 105, 110, 120, 145, 189, 241. Methodology, 67, 68, 129, 152.

Technology, 5, 8, 12, 20, 87, 115, 148, 175, 291, 295. Terrorism, 1, 10, 11, 12, 26, 41, 94, 99, 111, 123, 202.

N

V

Nanorobots, 6, 14, 17, 20, 102, 148, 149, 151. Nanotechnology, 17, 27, 28, 65, 84, 85, 147, 148, 155. Natural Aatastrophes, 41, 50, 62, 64, 70. Nuclear Attack, 98.

37, 53, 151, 51,

Violation, 6, 284.

W Weapons, 2, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 25. World War I, 238, 250, 278. World War II, 170, 189, 237, 257, 274, 278.

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