M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 3 3 7 ±3 3 8
S u r v e y in g M e m o r y P r o c e ss e s: In tr o d u c tio n
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M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 3 3 7 ±3 3 8
S u r v e y in g M e m o r y P r o c e ss e s: In tr o d u c tio n
In a fam o us a nd co n trov e rsia l sp e ec h to the in a u gu ra l co n fere n ce on ``P ra ctica l A spe c ts o f M em o ry C on fe ren c e’ ’ , U lric N e iss er (1 9 7 8) arg u e d tha t th e first 10 0 y ea rs o f m e m o ry re sea rch failed to illum in ate h ow m em ory op e rate s in th e rea l w orld . W h ile so m e a pp lie d rese arc h ex iste d at th a t tim e , the m o v e m e n t to w a rd s w ha t is som e tim es c alled ``e ve ry d ay m em ory ’ ’ rap id ly e x pa n d ed a s m a n y to o k u p h is ch a lle n ge . A t ab o u t th e sam e tim e , su rve y a nd m em ory rese a rch e rs sta rte d to disc uss th e lo n g -sta nd in g p ro ble m of ob ta in ing ac cu ra te re p or ts fro m su rv e y resp o n d en ts ab o u t th eir p a st e x pe rie n c es a n d be h av iou rs. B a d de le y (1 9 7 9) w a s ask e d to ta k e p art in on e o f th e e arly g a th e rin g s o f m em ory a n d su rv e y rese arc h e rs (M oss & G o ld stein , 1 9 7 9 ). H e a lm o st d ec lin e d the in v ita tio n b ec au se the re w as so little m e m o ry rese a rch th at d irec tly a d dre sse d th e su rv e y rese arc h e rs’ co n c ern s. H o w ev e r, lik e N e isse r, h e rea lise d th a t m em ory rese arc h sh ou ld b e ap p lic ab le to to p ic s su ch as th e re lia b ility a n d v alidity o f surv e ys. In the fo llo w in g 2 0 y e ars th ere ha s b ee n a sign ific a n t e ffort to u n de rsta n d m e m o ry erro rs in su rv ey s. M e m o ry e rro rs a re ju st on e ty p e o f e rro r th at a rise in surv e y s. It is im p o rta n t to e xa m in e th e se e rro rs in c on te x t a nd w ith h isto rica l p e rsp e ctiv e (O ’ M u irch e arta ig h , 1 9 9 7). In g en e ral, su rv e y re sea rc he rs disting u ish sa m p lin g (in clu din g n on -resp o n se) an d m ea su rem e nt e rror. S am p lin g e rro r h as b ee n stu die d sin c e th e turn of th e (la st) ce n tury an d is no w w e ll d ev e lo p e d in sta tistic al th e o ry. P sy ch o log ica l th eo ry a nd rese arc h h a s fo cu se d m o re o n m ea sure m en t e rro r. T h e first p sy ch o lo gists to w o rk on surv ey s w ere in the 1 9 2 0s an d 1 9 30 s. T he se inc lud e d T hu rston e (1 9 2 8) a nd L ik ert (1 9 3 2). In 1 9 4 8 th e Institu te o f S o c ia l R ese arc h (IS R ) w as fo rm e d a t th e U n iv ersity o f M ic h iga n , co m b in ing in tere sts o f th e S u rve y R e sea rch C e nte r an d th e R e sea rc h C e n te r fo r G ro up D y n a m ics. O th e r un ive rsitie s cre ate d sim ilar o rg a n isatio n s an d g ov e rn m e n t a ge n cie s to o b ec am e inv o lv e d . D u ring th ese y e ars, the p sy ch o log ists w h o co n ce n tra ted o n m e tho d o log y w er e p rim a rily so cia l p syc h olo g ists a n d w ere in te reste d , fo r ex a m p le , in h o w b e st to m e asu re attitu de s. A bo u t th e tim e tha t B ad d e le y (1 9 79 ) d esc rib e d the la c k o f d irec t a pp lic a tio n o f m e m o ry re se arc h to su rv ey p rob le m s, sev e ra l U S g ov e rn m e nt g rou p s b e ga n fun d ing c ollab o rativ e rese a rc h b etw ee n co g nitiv e p syc h olo g ists a nd su rv e y m e tho d o log ists (se e Ja b in e e t a l., 1 9 8 4, fo r so m e of this ea rly w o rk). T h is w a s co u p le d w ith psy c h o lo g ists re c o gn ising ho w p sy ch o lo gy co u ld be a ide d b y jo in t v en ture s (L o ftu s, F ien b e rg & T a n ur, 1 9 85 ). T h e fie ld o f C o g n itiv e A sp e cts o f
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INTRODUCTION
S u rv e y M e tho d o log y , o r C A S M , w as bo rn . R e sea rch c o n tin ue d thro u g h th e 19 8 0 s an d is sum m a rised in se ve ra l b o o ks (e .g . T a nu r, 1 9 9 4) a n d re v ie w article s (e .g . Jo be & M in g a y , 1 99 1 ; Jo b e , T ou ra n ge a u & S m ith , 1 9 9 3 ). T h e C A S M rese a rc h e rs ha v e e x p lo re d a v a rie ty o f top ic s, fo r ex am p le, co n tex t a n d q ue stio n ord e r e ffe c ts, q u estio n w o rd in g , re sp on se alte rn ativ es, ad m in istra tio n m o d e s an d re tros pe c tiv e m em o ry e rrors. T h is spe cia l issu e fo c u ses on th e fin a l of th e se a n d sho w s ho w th is co lla b o ratio n o f c o m m e rc ia l an d g ov e rn m e nt ag e nc ie s w ith a ca d em ic rese a rc h e rs h a s flo u rish ed . T h e co n trib u tio n s fa ll in to th re e b roa d ca te g o rie s: th e struc ture of au to b io g rap h ica l m e m o ry an d re trie va l stra teg ie s, th e tem p or al e stim a tio n o f e ve n ts, a nd th e co lle c tiv e n a tu re o f im p orta nt ev e n ts. A ll of the se a re o f re lev a n ce to surv e y pra c tic e a n d e a ch , in turn , ha s h elp e d m em o ry re se arc he rs to d e v elo p th e orie s an d th e u nd e rsta n d in g of m em ory p ro ce sse s in ev e ryd a y life.
REFERENCES B a d d e le y , A .D . (1 9 7 9 ). T h e
lim i ta tio n s o f h u m a n m e m o ry : Im p lic a ti o n s fo r th e d es i g n
of
r et ro s p e c tiv e s u rv e y s . I n L . M o s s a n d H . G o ld s t ei n (E d s.), T h e r e c a l l m e th o d i n so c ia l s u rv e y s ( p p .1 3 ±3 0 ). L o n d o n : U n iv e rs ity o f L o n d o n In s ti tu te o f E d u c a tio n . Ja b in e , T ., S t ra f, M ., T a n u r, J.M ., & T o u ra n g e a u , R . (E d s .) (1 9 8 4 ). C o g n it iv e a s p e c ts o f s u r v e y m e t h o d o lo g y: B u il d i n g a b r id g e b e tw ee n d i sc i p l in e s . R e p o rt o f th e A d v a n c e d R e s e a rc h S e m in a r o n C o g n itiv e A s p e c ts o f S u rv e y M e th o d o l o g y . W a s h i n g to n D C : N a tio n a l A ca d e m y P re s s . Jo b e , J .B ., & M i n g a y , D .J. (1 9 9 1 ). C o g n it io n a n d s u rv e y m ea s u rem e n t: H i st o ry a n d o v e rv ie w . A p p li e d C o g n it iv e P s y c h o lo g y , 5 , 1 7 5 ±1 9 2 . Jo b e , J .B ., T o u ran g e a u , R ., &
S m i th , A .F . (1 9 9 3 ) . C o n t rib u ti o n s o f s u rv e y re s e ar ch to th e
u n d e rs ta n d i n g o f m e m o ry . A p p li ed C o g n itiv e P s yc h o lo g y, 7 , 5 6 7 ±5 8 4 . L ik e rt, R . (1 9 3 2 ). A te c h n i q u e fo r th e m e a s u re m en t o f at ti tu d e s . A r c h iv e s o f P s y c h o l o g y , 1 9 , 4 4 ±5 3 . L o ftu s, E .F ., F i e n b e rg , S .E ., & T an u r, J . (1 9 8 5 ) . C o g n it iv e p s y ch o lo g y m e e ts th e n a tio n al s u r v e y . A m e ri c a n P s y c h o lo g i st, 4 0 , 1 7 5 ±1 8 0 . M o ss , L ., & G o ld s te in , H . (E d s .) (1 9 7 9 ). T h e r ec a ll m e t h o d in s o c i a l s u r v e y s. L o n d o n : U n i v e rs it y o f L o n d o n In s t itu te o f E d u c a tio n . N ei s se r, U . (1 9 7 8 ). M e m o ry : W h a t a re th e im p o rt a n t q u e s ti o n s ? In M .M . G ru n e b e rg , P .E . M o rris a n d R .N . S y k es (E d s .), P r a c ti c a l a s p e c ts o f m e m o r y (p p .3 ±2 4 ). N e w Y o rk : A c a d e m ic P re s s. O ’ M u irc h e a rta ig h , C .A . (1 9 9 7 ). M e a s u re m en t e rro r i n s u rv e y s: A h i st o ri c al p e rs p e c tiv e . In L . L y b e rg , P . B ie m e r, M . C o llin s , E . D e L e e u w , C . D ip p o , N . S c h w a rz & D . T re w in (E d s .), S u r v e y m e a s u r e m e n t a n d p ro c e s s q u a li ty (p p .1 ±2 5 ). N ew Y o rk : W il e y . T a n u r, J .M . (E d .) (1 9 9 4 ) . Q u es t io n s a b o u t q u e s ti o n s : In q u ir ie s i n t o th e c o g n itiv e b a se s o f s u r v e y s. N e w Y o rk : R u s s e ll S a g e F o u n d a t io n . T h u rs to n e , L .L . (1 9 2 8 ). A t titu d e s c a n b e m e a s u re d . A m e r ic a n J o u r n a l o f S o c io lo g y , 3 3 , 5 2 9 ±5 4 4 . D A N IE L B . W R IG H T G E O R G E D . G A SK EL L
M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 3 3 9 ±3 6 6
S tr a te g ie s fo r E s tim a tin g B e h a v io u r a l F r e q u e n c y in S u r v e y I n te r v ie w s F re d e ric k G . C o nra d U S B u rea u of L a b or S tatistic s
N o rm a n R . B ro w n U niv ersity o f A lb erta , C an a d a
E rin R . C a s h m a n U n iv e rsity of Illin ois, U S A
W h e n p eo p le an sw e r s ur ve y qu e st io n s of th e f or m `` D u r in g the p as t m o nth , h o w m a ny tim e s d id yo u . . . ?’ ’ the ir r es po n se s p ro v id e v a lu a b le da ta f or re se a rc he r s a nd p o lic y m a k e r s . Y e t th e w a y r e s p o n d e n ts p r o d u c e th e ir a n s w e r s to th e s e ` ` b e h a v i o u r a l f r e q u e n c y q u e s t io n s ’ ’ is n o t w e ll u n d e r s to o d . T h is a r tic le de m o n st ra te s th at su rv e y re sp on d e nts c a n u s e a n ar ra y of d is tinc t es tim a tion st ra te g ie s, d e p en d in g o n w h at inf or m a tio n is a va ila ble in the ir m e m o ries . T h e k ind of e ve n t in f o rm a tio n tha t p e o ple u se is re la ted to f a ctor s s uc h as th e re g ula rity o f oc c u rre n c e, s im ila r ity o f o ne ep is o de to th e n e xt, a n d fr eq u e nc y . In a st u dy co n du c te d a s a te lep h on e su rv e y, re sp o n d e n ts ’ v er ba l re p or ts a nd re sp o ns e -tim e pa tte rn s in d ic a te th a t th ey us u a lly an sw e r be h a viou r al f re q ue n c y qu e st io n s by e ith e r r e tr ie v in g a n d c o u n tin g e p is o d e s , r e trie v in g o r e s tim a tin g r a te s o f oc c u rre n c e, or c o n v e rtin g a ge n er a l im p re ss io n of f re q u e n cy into a nu m e r ic a l qu a ntity . T h e th ird st ra teg y s ho u ld be o f p a rtic u la r c on c e rn to s ur ve y re se a rc h er s be c a u s e r e s p o n d e n ts p r o v ide a qu a n tita tiv e e s tim a te w ith o u t a n y r e le v a nt nu m e ric al k n ow le d g e . T h e s et of st ra teg ies a n d th e f a ctor s th a t in f lu en c e the ir us e a r e in te g ra te d in to a st atis tica l m od e l th at c ou ld h elp su rv e y p ra c titio ne rs to im p r ov e d ata q ua lity an d m em o r y re se a rc h er s to b ro a d en th eir pe rs p ec tiv e.
R e q u e s ts fo r re p rin ts sh o u l d b e s e n t to F re d e ri ck C o n ra d , B u re a u o f L a b o r S t a tisti c s, 2 M a s s a ch u se tt s A v e n u e N E , S u it e 4 9 1 5 , W as h in g t o n , D C 2 0 2 1 2 , U S A . E m a i l: C o n ra d _ F @ b ls .g o v W e a re g r at e fu l t o B ri a n H a rris -K o je t in , S te v e M il le r, a n d C ly d e T u c k e r fo r th e ir i n v a lu ab le s ta ti st ic a l a d v ic e . W e th a n k Ji m K e n n e d y , P a u l M u llin , S t a n le y P re ss e r, D a n W rig h t, a n d a n a n o n y m o u s re v ie w e r fo r d i sc u s s in g e a rli e r v e rs io n s o f th e m a n u s c rip t . W e a ls o th a n k D a v id C a n to r, J a m e s D o re e , M a rj F le m is te r, C l y d e T u c k e r, a n d J o n T ru sw e ll fo r lo g is tic a l a n d m e th o d o l o g ic al a s si st a n c e . T h e v ie w s e x p re s s e d h ere a re th o s e o f th e a u th o rs a lo n e an d d o n o t n e c e s sa ri ly re fle c t th e v i e w s o f t h e ir in s titu t io n s . T h is re s e a rc h w a s s u p p o rt e d i n p a rt b y an N S E R C o p e ra ti n g g ra n t a w a rd e d to th e se c o n d a u th o r.
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CONRAD, BROWN, CASHMAN
INTRODUCTION P eo p le e stim ate va rio u s fre qu e nc ie s on a n ev ery d ay b a sis. F o r e x am p le, w he n pe o ple se ek m ed ic al trea tm e n t, the y are ty pic ally ask e d to d e scrib e th e fr e q u e n c y o f th e ir s y m p to m s . W h e n th e y c o n si d e r m o v i n g t o a n e w ne ig hb o u rh oo d , the y m igh t asse ss h ow freq u en tly th ey h av e h e a rd a bo u t c rim e in th at a rea . W he n the y p urc h a se a n ew p ro du c t, o n e c o nsid e ratio n m ig h t be h o w ofte n th ey b eliev e th ey w ill u se the pro d u ct. T h is a rtic le co n ce rn s th e w a y p e o ple estim a te th e fre qu e nc y o f au to bio g ra p hi ca l ev e nt s w h en ask e d a bo u t the ir be h av io u r o n su rve y q ue stio n n aires . W e rep o rt th e re su lts o f a stu dy c o nd u c te d as a te le p ho ne su rv ey in w h ic h re sp on d e nts w e re tim ed a s th ey a n sw ere d qu e stio n s a bo u t the freq u e n cy o f the ir o w n b e ha v io ur. A fte r an sw er in g ea c h qu e stio n , th e y d esc ribe d h o w the y a rriv e d a t th e ir an sw er an d th en ra ted th e re g u la rity a nd sim ilarity o f th e ta rg et ev e n ts. S o -c alled b eh a vio u ral fre q u en c y q u estio ns a re u su ally o f th e fo rm ``D urin g th e la st m o n th h ow m a n y tim es d id y o u p a y to see a m o v ie ? ’ ’ w he re b o th th e tim e fra m e an d ev e nt c ate go ry ca n v ary . T h e resp o n se s to the se qu e stio n s h av e w id esp re a d p o litica l an d ec o n om ic im p lica tio n s, so the re is so c ia l va lu e in un d er sta n din g h o w th ey a re fo rm u la ted . F o r e xa m ple , th e m o nth ly u ne m p lo y m e n t ra tes re p o rte d b y the U S g o v ern m en t a re ba sed , in p art, o n re sp on se s to be h av io u ra l fre q u en c y q u e stio n s o n fed e ral su rve y s. In ad d itio n , the re are go o d m e th o d o lo g ica l re aso n s fo r stu d yin g p erfo rm a n ce on th is ta sk. It is a re lative ly fa m iliar ta sk fo r m o st p e o ple an d it is ca rrie d ou t in n atu ra listic setting s, w ith stim uli (a uto b io g ra ph ica l e ve n ts) th a t h av e p erso n a l m e an in g, y et an sw erin g be h av io u ra l fre q u en cy q u estio ns c an b e stu die d w ith so m e ex p e rim en tal c on tro l. T h ere a re rela tiv e ly d istinc t b od ies o f lite ra tu re o n h o w pe o ple an sw e r be h av io u ra l fre q u en cy q u estio ns in su rv ey situ a tio n s a n d h o w th e y e stim ate fre q u en c y in la b ora tory task s. S u rv ey m e th o d s rese arc h e rs (e .g . B la ir & B u rto n , 19 8 7 ; B u rto n & B lair, 1 9 9 1; M e an s & L oftu s, 1 9 9 1 ; M e n on , 1 99 3 ) h a ve fo cu se d th e ir stud ie s o n th e u se o f tw o re sp o nse stra teg ie s: ep iso d e en u m e ra tio n (c o u n tin g a ll retrie v ed insta nc e s of th e e v en t ca te g o ry w ith in the sp ec ifie d tim e pe rio d ) an d ra te-b a sed in fe re n c es (rec alling tha t th e b eh a v io u r ha p pe n s o n c e a w e e k an d rea so n in g tha t it m u st, the refo re , h av e o cc u rred fo ur tim e s in th e la st m o n th ). C e rta in c o nd itio n s p ro m o te th e use o f o n e stra teg y ov e r a n o th e r a n d th e se h a ve b ee n m a nip u la ted ex p e rim en tally (e .g . B lair & B u rto n , 1 98 7 ). T h is is esse n tia lly , a d ua l-stra te g y vie w in w h ic h re sp o nse s a re b ase d o n e ith e r c o un ts o f re triev e d e piso d es (en u m era tio n ) o r re trie v ed rates o f o c cu rre nc e . In this article w e p rese n t e vid e nc e th at p eo p le u se a d ditio n a l strate gie s for a nsw e rin g the se qu e stio n s b u t th e im po rta nt p oin t is th a t su rv ey re sp on d en ts a re a ssu m e d to b e ca p ab le o f u sin g m u ltip le strate gie s. In co n trast, in div id ua l la b ora to ry stud ies h a v e ten d ed to fo c u s on th e use o f in d iv id u al stra teg ies. F o r e x am p le, T v ersk y a n d K ah n e m a n (1 9 73 ) d em o nstrate d th a t p e op le u se th e e a se o f re trie vin g in stan c es a s a k ey to fre qu e nc y Ð th e
STRATEGIES FOR ESTIMATING FREQUENCY
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av a ila b ility h e uristic . H in tz m a n (19 8 8 ) m o de lled freq u en c y ju d ge m e n ts as a co m pa riso n o f a targ et item ’ s sim ila rity to ex e m p lars in m em ory Ð a sim ila rity p rin cip le. B arsa lo u a nd R o ss (1 9 8 6) pro v id ed e v id e n ce th at sub jec ts re trie ve an d co u n t ca te g or y in stan c es w h e n re p ortin g c ate go ry freq u e nc y Ð a n e nu m era tio n stra teg y . A lth o u gh m a n y m em ory rese arc h e rs h av e n o ted th a t su b je cts m a y estim a te fre qu e n cy in m o re th an o n e w a y (B e g g, M ax w e ll, M itte re r, & H a rris, 1 98 6 ; B ruc e , H o c kle y , & C ra ik , 1 99 1 ; H intz m a n , 1 9 7 6 ; H ow e ll, 1 9 73 ; Jo h n so n, R ay e, W a n g , & T ay lo r, 1 97 9 ; Jo n id e s & Jon e s, 19 9 2 ; Jon id es & N a ve h B en jam in, 19 8 7 ; V o ss, V e re b , & B isan z , 1 9 7 5), th e d a ta from la b o ra tory stu die s p oin t p rim a rily to th e u se o f ind iv id u a l strate gie s. In a se rie s o f lab o ra to ry stud ies th a t a re in m a n y w a y s an a lo g o us to the c urre nt su rv ey -fo rm a t stu d y, B ro w n (1 99 5 ) illu stra te d th a t in d iv id ua l su b je cts u se d m u ltip le stra te g ie s to asse ss the fre q u en c y o f ite m s tha t th ey h ad rec e ntly stu d ie d . H e u sed a co m b in atio n o f ve rb a l p ro to c o ls a n d resp on se tim e s to d iffe re n tia te th e stra teg ie s. In th e cu rren t article , w e pre sen t a stu d y o f h o w re sp o n d en ts a nsw e r b eh a vio ur al fre qu e nc y q u estio ns w h ic h is in ten d e d to in te g rate a nd e x te n d fin d ing s fro m the se tw o b o d ie s o f lite ratu re. W e id en tify a ra ng e o f strateg ie s tha t d iffer in th eir co n d itio n s o f use a s w ell as in th eir u nd e rlyin g pro c esse s, an d w e su g g est tha t resp o nd e n ts use w h ic h e ve r stra teg y is b e st serv ed b y th e av a ila b le info rm a tio n .
THE MULTIPLE STRATEGY PERSPECTIVE O ur ce n tral id e a is tha t p e o ple estim ate fre q u en cy b ase d o n th e c o nte nts o f th eir m e m o ry o r, in the a bse n ce o f re le v an t c on te nt, th e sta te o f th eir m e m o ry . In o rd e r to c o u nt e piso d es, th ey m u st b e ab le to retriev e ep iso de s; in o rd er to infe r freq u en c y b ase d o n ty p ic a l rate o f o c cu rren c e th e y m u st be ab le to retrie v e rate info rm a tio n . W h e n the y c an n ot retriev e this ty p e o f info rm a tio n , the y m a y b e ab le to u se q ua lita tiv e im p re ssio n s o f fre q ue n c y, su c h as ``th a t h a pp e ne d a lo t’ ’ , co n v ertin g the im p re ssio n into a n um e ric al e stim a te. W h en no n e o f th is info rm a tio n is dire ctly av a ila ble , p e op le ca n ev a lua te th e sta te o f the ir m e m o ry to d eriv e freq u en c y in fo rm ation . W e term th is m e m ory asse ssm en t. T h e av a ila b ility h eu ristic (T v e rsk y & K a hn e m an , 1 9 7 3) is a g oo d e xa m p le : T h e m ore d ifficu lt it is to re triev e in sta n c es, the les s freq u en t th ey a re assu m ed to b e. In p rin cip le, o ne c an a lm o st a lw a y s a ssess th e sta te o f o n e’ s m e m o ry, re ga rd le ss o f w h eth e r e pi so de s, rate s, o r o th e r rele v a n t in fo rm atio n c an b e re trie v ed . C on se qu e n tly , w e vie w m em o ry a sse ssm e nt strate g ie s as d e fa u lt p ro ce du re s. T h is v ie w im p lie s th at if o n e co u ld k n o w th e v a lu e o f c ertain v a ria b le s, on e co u ld at le ast ru le o u t the u se o f ce rta in strate gie s. F o r e x am ple , in o rd er to en u m e ra te ep iso de s, on e ne e ds to be a ble to d istin gu ish on e rem em be re d e p isod e from the n e xt. R em em be re d ep iso de s w ill b e rela tiv e ly d istin g u ish a ble if the y o cc u r o n a n irre g ula r sc he d u le an d d o n o t h av e sim ilar c ha rac teristic s. If o n e ca n
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de te rm ine ju st h o w d istin ctiv e o n e e piso de is from a n oth e r, it w o uld b e p o ssible to d e te rm in e w h e the r a n e n um era tion strate g y is fe asib le . W e disc u ss ce rtain va ria b les th at h av e be e n a sso cia te d w ith ev e nt d istin ctive n e ss la ter. F ro m a p rac tic al v iew p o int, th is m ea n s su rve y rese a rch ers m ay b e ab le to de te rm ine w h a t strateg ie s re sp on d en ts are c ap a b le o f usin g a n d to ru le o u t oth e rs b e ca use the n e ce ssa ry in fo rm a tion is la ck ing . T his m a y b e u se fu l, fo r ex a m p le, in ev a lu a tin g re spo n se a c cu ra cy . A n e n um era tion stra teg y is m o re lik ely to lea d to u nd e rrep o rtin g th a n o v erre po rting b ec au se p eo p le a re m o re lik ely to forg e t ind iv idu a l ep iso d es th a n to re c all e piso d e s th at eithe r did n o t ha p pe n or oc c ur re d o u tsid e th e relev a n t tim e inte rva l (S u d m a n & B ra d b urn , 19 7 4 ). A m eth od o lo gic al in te rv en tion th at in cre ase s re po rted fre qu e nc y c an b e assu m ed to b e inc rea sin g resp o n se ac cu ra c y if on e c an b e su re resp o n de n ts are e n um era tin g . H ow e v er, if the e p isod e s a bo u t w h ic h th ey are q ue stio ne d are n ot d istin c tiv e, the n en u m era tio n is un like ly an d the a ssum p tio n s ab o u t ac cu ra c y m a y n ee d to be qu e stio n ed . (N o te, th at w e d o no t ad d ress re spo n se ac cu ra c y in th is article b u t c o nc e ntra te in stea d o n th e p ro ce sse s th at un d e rlie fre q u en c y e stim ate s.) A ltho u g h th e m ultip le strate gy v iew le a ds to c le a r p red ic tio n s a b ou t w he n ce rta in strate g ie s w ill n o t b e u se d , it is le ss d e cisive a bo u t w h en a p a rtic u la r stra teg y w ill be u se d. T h is is b ec au se m o re th a n o ne k in d o f rele va n t in fo rm a tio n m a y b e a v aila ble . F or insta n ce , a film e nth u sia st m igh t k no w tha t he o r sh e go e s to th e m o v ie s tw ice a w e e k (rate in fo rm a tio n) an d m ig h t also be a b le to re c all th e n am e s an d p lo ts o f the last se v era l m o vie s a tten d e d (e p iso d e in fo rm a tio n ); e ith er so u rce of in fo rm a tion co u ld b e su fficie nt fo r a n estim a te, so th e issu e is w h ich sou rc e resp o n de n ts w ill use . F o rtu n ate ly , the re are a n u m b e r o f fac tors kn o w n to affe ct stra te g y ch o ice a n d th e w a y the se fa c to rs ten d to c o m b in e m a k es o ne stra teg y m o re lik e ly to b e u sed tha n an o the r. L a te r in th e article , w e re po rt a statistic a l an aly sis in w h ic h w e ex a m in ed th e c om b ine d e ffec t o f se ve ral va riab le s o n the u se o f p a rtic ula r stra teg ies.
Factors That Affect Strategy Use S ev er al fa cto rs a re k n ow n to a ffec t strate gy u se. B lair a nd B urto n (1 98 7 ) a n d B u rto n a nd B la ir (1 9 9 1) p o in t to the im po rta nc e o f ac tu al fre q u en c y in pre d ic ting stra te g y u se . T h e y fou n d th a t ep iso de s ten d to b e e nu m era ted w h e n fre q u en c y is low ; th at is, w he n th ere a re re lativ e ly few e p iso d e s to rec a llÐ ra te in form atio n te nd s to b e use d w h e n fre q ue n cy is hig h er. F re qu e n cy w a s m a n ip u l ate d b y e lic itin g ju d g e m en ts fo r e ith e r o n e -m o n th o r six -m o n th re fe ren c e p erio ds, th e id e a b e in g th a t fre q ue n c y is gre ate r fo r lo n g e r tim e pe rio d s. T h ey also fo u nd th a t th e tim e allo ca te d to re sp o nd affe cts stra te g y sele ction : m o re tim e le d to m o re ep iso de en u m e ratio n. F in ally , q u e stio n w o rd in g h ad a w ea k effec t o n re sp on se stra teg y : ``H o w ofte n . . . ? ’ ’ p ro d uc e d
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m o re re sp o nse s e xp re ssed a s rate s th a n ``H o w m a n y tim e s . . . ?’ ’ . In th eir d isc u ssion , th e a u th o rs sp ec u la te th at the re gu lar ity an d distin c tiv e ne ss o f ev e n ts m a y a ffe ct strateg y a s w ell (B la ir & B u rto n , 1 9 8 7, p .2 8 7 ; B u rton & B la ir, 1 99 1 , p p .6 4±6 5 ). T h e reg u la rity w ith w h ic h e ve n ts oc c ur h a s sub se q u en tly b e en sh o w n to affe ct h ow resp o n d en ts p ro d uc e b e ha v io ura l freq u e n cies. M e a n s a n d L o ftu s (19 9 1 ) fo u n d th at ac tiv itie s th a t p resu m ab ly o c cu r irre g ula rly , like v isitin g th e d oc tor for a n inju ry, led to freq u en c y jud g e m e nts b a sed o n re ca lle d inc ide n ts m o re th an d id a ctivities lik e v isiting th e a lle rg ist, w hic h p resu m a b ly o cc u r o n a reg u la r sch e d ule . T h e y a lso sh o w e d th a t sim ilar e piso d es (m in o r m ed ica l co n d itio n s) w e re rec a lle d le ss o ften th an d istin c tiv e on es (se rio u s m ed ica l co n d itio n s), altho u g h th ey d id n o t sh o w th at su ch ac tivitie s led resp o nd e n ts to u se rate k n o w le d g e in ste ad o f e n um era ting ep iso de s. T h ey d id n ot m e asu re ev e n t re gu lar ity o r d istin ctive n e ss, an d d id n o t lo ok a t b o th v a ria ble s to g e th e r. M e n o n (1 99 3 ) h a s sy stem a tic ally e xp lo re d th e e ffec ts o f e v en t re g ula rity an d sim ila rity o n strate g y ch o ice . In a series o f stu d ie s, she fo u n d tha t e ve n ts w ere p rim a rily en u m e ra te d w h en e v en t in sta n ce s o c cu rred o n a n irre g ula r b asis a nd w h e n su b jec ts co n sid e red th em to b e d istin c tiv e (lo w in ra te d sim ila rity ). O th er lev e ls of th ese ev e n t c h ara c te ristic s le d to in cre ase d use o f rate kn o w led g e. M e n on ’ s p e rs pe c tiv e d iffers from o ur o w n in tha t she a do p ts a st ri c t d u a l st ra te g y v ie w Ð re s p o n d e n ts e i th e r e n u m e ra te o r u s e ra te info rm a tio n , b u t th ere is n o ro le fo r no n -nu m eric al stra teg ie s su c h a s th o se tha t in v olv e g en e ral im p ressio n s o r m em o ry a ssessm en t. H o w e v e r, lik e M en o n (19 9 3 ), w e giv e co n sid e rab le w eig ht to th e ro le of re gu lar ity an d sim ila rity in stra teg y ch o ice .
Predictions T h e m u ltiple stra te g y p ersp e ctiv e lea d s to se v era l p red ictio ns. First, th e reg u la rity w ith w h ich insta nc e s of an ev e nt o cc u r w ill be rela te d to th e u se o f rate -b a se d strate g ie s a n d (in d ire ctly) to th e u se o f e n um era tio n -ba se d stra teg ies. W e assu m e th a t p eo p le a re lik ely to a c qu ire ra te in fo rm a tio n w h e n e ve n ts o cc u r o n a rela tiv ely reg u la r sc he d u le . If so m e o ne p erfo rm s a ce rta in ac tiv ity e ve ry T h u rsd ay fro m 2 :00 to 3:3 0 , it is lik ely the p erso n w ou ld b ec om e aw a re o f th is. In c o ntras t, it is u nlike ly so m eo n e w o u ld ha v e w e ek ly ra te info rm a tio n av a ila ble for an e v en t th at m ay oc c ur sev e ra l tim e s in o ne w e ek , a nd th e n n ot a g ain fo r sev e ral w ee k s. W e pre dic t, the refo re, tha t strateg ies b a sed o n rate in fo rm a tio n w ill b e u se d m o re ofte n fo r re gu larly o cc u rrin g tha n fo r irreg u la rly o cc u rrin g ev e n ts. S ec o nd , reg u la rity sh ou ld red u c e th e a cc e ssib ility of e v en t insta nc es. T his is b ec au se a re gu la rly o c cu rring ev e nt h a s id en tic al te m p o ra l ch a ra c teristic s e ac h tim e it ta ke s p la c e, so p eo p le m ay p oo rly e n co d e th e se p ara te e piso d es. In o the r w ord s, all e lse b ein g eq u a l, insta nc e s o f reg u la rly o cc urrin g ev e nts sh o u ld b e
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m o re sim ila r to on e a no th er th an in stan c es o f irreg u larly oc c ur rin g e ve n ts. In tu rn , th is im plies th a t insta nc e s o f re g ula rly oc c urrin g ev e nts sh ou ld b e m o re difficu lt to re trie ve th a n in sta n c es o f irre g u larly o cc u rrin g ev e nts, a n d h en c e le ss lik ely to e v o ke en u m e ra tion . T hu s, th ere a re tw o rea so ns for p red ictin g th a t rate ba se d re sp o nse s w ill be m o re co m m o n fo r reg u la rly oc c urring e v en ts: su c h ev e nts p ro m o te th e e n co d in g o f rate in fo rm a tio n a nd the d e co n te x tua lisa tio n o f in d iv id u al e ve n ts. A n u m b er o f a u to b io g ra ph ica l m e m o ry stu d ie s (e .g . B a rclay & W e llm an , 19 8 6 ; B re w e r, 1 9 8 8 ; L in to n , 1 9 82 ; N e isse r, 19 8 6 ; W a g e na a r, 1 9 8 6) h av e de m on strate d th a t ev e n ts ju d g ed to b e sim ila r to m a ny o th ers a re ha rd to re c all an d re co g nise . H ig h ly sim ila r ep iso de s le ad p e o ple to re p rese n t co m m o n fe a tu re s of tho se e p isod e s, b ut n ot fe a tu re s th a t d istin gu ish o n e fro m the n ex t (N e iss er , 1 9 8 1 ; S t ru b e , 1 9 8 7 ). T h e re fo r e, o u r s e co n d p re d ic tio n is th a t en u m e ratio n sho u ld b e ra re w he n in sta n ce s o f a targ e t ac tiv ity c los ely rese m b le on e a n o th e r, an d sh o uld be u se d m ore often as the ep isod e s b e co m e m o re distinc tiv e an d h en c e a re e asie r to re triev e. O u r th ird p red iction co n ce rn s th e tim e s to a nsw e r a fre q ue n c y q ue stio n . In th e cu rren t stud y , re sp on se tim es a re u se d as a m e an s o f co rro bo ra tin g th e sub je cts’ re tro sp e ctive stra teg y re p orts. W e assu m e tha t it ta ke s a fix e d am o un t o f tim e to re triev e on e ep isod e , so th at th e m o re e piso d es re triev e d th e lo n ge r th e re sp on se tim e (B ou sfield , S ed g e w ic k , & C o h e n , 19 5 4 ; B row n , 19 9 5 ). In co n tra st, w e assu m e th a t p eo p le asso c iate rate k n o w le d ge w ith pa rtic u lar ev e nt ca teg o rie s a n d (a s a re su lt) it is direc tly retriev a b le . It sho u ld ta k e no m o re tim e to re triev e a rate o f o nc e a d ay th an o f o n c e a m o nth , all else be ing e q ua l. O u r th ird pre d ic tio n , th ere fo re , is tha t resp o n se tim e s sho u ld in c re a se w ith estim a ted fre qu e nc y w h en re sp on d e nts e n um e ra te ep isod e s, b u t th e re sh ou ld b e n o re la tion be tw ee n re sp on se tim e a n d e stim ated freq u en c y w h e n th ey use a ra te. S im ilarly , th ere is no re a so n, a p rio ri, w h y re spo n se tim e s s h o u ld b e re l a te d to e st im a te d fr e q u e n c y w h e n re s p o n d e n ts u s e he u ristic s lik e a va ila b ility. In su m m a ry , w e a re pre d ic tin g th a t e nu m era tio n w ill b e rela tiv e ly co m m o n w h e n e v en t in stan c es are distin c tiv e a n d o cc u r a t irre g u la r in te rv als, a nd tha t ra te-b a sed resp on se s w ill b e p re v ale n t w h en th e e ve n ts o c cu r a t re g ula r in terv a ls. W e are also p re dic tin g th at re spo n se tim e s w ill in cre a se w ith re po rted freq u en c y w h e n pe o ple en u m era te , a n d th at the y w ill no t w h e n pe o ple rely on ra te -ba se d stra teg ies. N ote tha t, a lth o ug h w e a ssum e th a t re sp on d en ts h a ve m ultiple stra teg ies a v aila ble to th em , w e h a v e fo c use d o ur p re dic tio n s o n en u m e ra tio n an d ra te-b a sed stra teg ies. T h e re is little em p iric al ev id en c e ab o u t w h a t o th e r stra teg ies re sp on d en ts m ig ht u se to a n sw er freq u en c y qu e stio n s on su rv e y s. In lig ht o f th is, o u r stu dy h a s a n ex p lora to ry ch a ra c ter to it a s w ell. W e de sign e d th e stu d y to id e n tify the se a dd itio n al strate gie s a nd to e x am ine w h ic h fac to rs (a m o n g sim ilarity , reg u la rity , re p orte d fre q ue n cy , an d resp o n se tim e ) are rela te d to the ir use .
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METHOD Design T h e stud y w a s co n d uc te d a s a tele ph o n e surv e y. T h re e ex p erie nc e d in terv iew e rs ask e d 1 0 6 re sp on d en ts to estim a te th e fre qu e nc y of 10 a uto b io g rap h ica l e ve n ts 1 an d to ra te th e re gu lar ity an d sim ila rity o f th o se ev en ts. T he resp o n d en ts w ere co n tac ted fro m a sam ple o f 2 5 0 telep h o ne n u m b e rs. T h e se n u m be rs w ere ran d o m ly d raw n from a na tio n a lly re pr ese n ta tiv e sa m p le , ba sed o n ru ral an d m e tro p o lita n are as o f the U n ite d S ta tes a n d stra tified b y C en su s reg io n an d p op u latio n. If p ote ntial re spo n d en ts d e cline d to p a rtic ipa te, in terv ie w e rs d id n o t attem p t to p e rsu a d e the m to ta ke pa rt. E a ch in terv ie w w as a u dio ta p e d w ith th e resp o n d en t’ s c o nse n t.
Procedure T h e resp o nd e nt s w e re p re se n te d w ith fo u r ta sk s. F irst th e y w e re a sk ed to a nsw e r 1 0 b eh a vio u ral fre q ue n cy qu e stio n s (se e T a b le 1). T he y w e re to ld to thin k sile n tly b efo re an sw er in g , a n d to tak e a s m u c h tim e a s th ey n ee d e d, b u t to resp o n d as soo n a s the y h ad m ad e u p th e ir m ind . S ec o nd , a fte r an sw e rin g e ac h q ue stio n , th e re spo n d en ts w ere ask ed to ex p la in h o w th e y c a m e u p w ith th e an sw e r; th a t is, th ey w e re a ske d fo r a retros pe c tiv e p roto co l (E ric sso n & S im o n, 2 1 99 3 ). T h e inte rv iew e rs o cc a sio n a lly p rob e d if the y felt th e p ro to co l w as n o t info rm a tiv e . In th e th ird task , th e inte rv ie w ers p re sen ted th e 1 0 ev e nts in the T a ble 1 q ue stio n s an d ask e d re spo n d e nts to rate th e re g ula rity of ea ch o n a 4 -p o int sca le. R esp o nd e n ts w e re to ld th at if th ey e n g ag e d in a n e v en t o n a rou tine sch e d ule it w as V ery R e g ula r (4); if th ey n ev e r en g ag e d in it o n a ro utin e sc he d u le it w a s V e ry Irre gu la r (1 ). T h e in term ed iate re sp on se o p tio n s w e re S o m e w h at R e gu la r (3) a n d So m e w ha t Irreg u la r (2). T h e resp o nd e nt s w e re ex p lic itly instru cte d n o t to c o nfu se (in )fre qu e n t ev en ts w ith (ir)reg u la r e v en ts. T h e fo u rth ta sk req u ire d resp o n d en ts to ju dg e th e sim ilarity o f th e ev e nts o n a 4 -po in t sc ale. T h e y w ere told th at if th eir e x pe rien c es w e re v irtu a lly th e sam e ea c h tim e th e y e ng a ge d in a b eh a vio ur th e n th e y sh ou ld rate it V ery S im ila r (4); if e ac h en c ou n ter w ith th e ev e n t se em ed lik e a to tally u n iq u e e x pe rie n c e, th en it sho u ld re ce iv e a V e ry D iffere n t (1 ) ra tin g . F o r sim ila rity ra tin g s be tw e e n th ese ex trem e v a lu e s resp o n d en ts w e re g ive n th e o p tio n o f So m e w ha t S im ila r (3 ) an d So m e w ha t 1
T h e e v e n t c a te g o rie s w e re c h o s e n to v a ry in t h e s im il ari ty a n d re g u l a rity o f th e ir in d i v i d u a l
in s ta n c e s o n in tu itiv e g ro u n d s ; h o w e v er, t h i s w a s n o t s y s te m a tic a lly c o n tro ll e d o r e v a lu a te d , a n d is n o t d is c u s s e d fu rt h e r. 2
W e c o ll e c te d ret ro sp e c tiv e a s o p p o s e d to c o n c u rre n t p ro t o c o ls in o rd er to o b t a in s tra te g y rep o rts
th a t d i d n o t a ffe c t th e tim e o f th e re sp o n s e i n th e firs t ta s k . A lth o u g h re tro sp e c tiv e p ro to co ls ca n b e a le s s d ire c t m e a s u re o f m e n t a l p ro c e s s , t h e y d o n o t in te rfe re w it h th e p ri m ar y ta s k a s c o n c u rr en t t h i n k a lo u d m et h o d s c a n (S c h o o le r, O h l s so n , & B ro o k s, 1 9 9 3 ).
346
CONRAD, BROWN, CASHMAN TABLE 1 Stimulus Questions D u r in g th e la s t m o n t h , h o w m a n y ti m e s d id y o u . . . 1 . c o n d u c t a tra n s a c tio n w it h a n A u to m a te d T e lle r M a c h in e ? 2 . p e rf o rm a tra n sa c t io n w ith a te ll e r i n a b a n k ? 3 . s h o p i n a g ro c e ry st o re ? 4 . s h o p i n a d e p a rt m e n t s to re ? 5 . p u rc h a se g a s fo r y o u r ca r? 6 . p a y to h a v e y o u r ca r re p a ire d ? 7 . re c e iv e s u b s c rip ti o n m a g a z in e s b y m a il ? 8 . re c e iv e c a ta lo g u e s b y m a il? 9 . e a t ic e c re a m ? 1 0 . e a t s p i c y fo o d ?
D iffe re n t (2 ). W e se ttle d o n th e n u m b e r o f p o ints an d th e p a rticu la r v erb a l lab e ls fo r b o th th e re gu larity a n d sim ila rity sca le s a fte r p ilot testin g th e ratin g ta sk s. T h is ap p ro ac h to assig nin g sim ila rity a n d reg u la rity ra tin g s to stim ulu s e ve n ts diffe rs fro m o th ers in th e litera ture . In pa rtic u lar, M e n on (1 9 93 ) c ollec ted ra tin g s fro m in d e pe n d en t ju d g es a n d e stab lishe d a se t of stim u li th at w ere rate d e ith e r hig h o n b oth re gu lar ity a nd sim ila rity, lo w o n b oth , o r h ig h o n on e a nd lo w o n th e o the r. A pa rtic u la r e ve n t w as th e n co n side re d fix e d in th ese ch a ra c te ristic s fo r all resp o n de n ts. T h is w as e ffec tive u n de r M e no n ’ s a p pro a ch in p a rt be c au se he r stim u lu s e v en ts w e re relativ ely fin e-g rain e d (e.g . sn a ck in g, w a sh in g o n e ’ s ha ir) a n d h e r su b jec ts w e re o f re lative ly u n iform d e m o g rap h ics (u n de rgr ad u ate stu d e n ts ). O u r sti m u lu s e v e n t s w e r e so m e w h a t m o re c o m p lic a t e d ( e .g . pe rfo rm ing a tra n sac tio n w ith a te lle r in a ba n k ), a n d o ur re sp o n de n ts m o re div e rse de m o g ra ph ica lly (a stra tified , na tio n a l sa m p le ). T h is m ea n s th at in o u r sam p le , tw o d iffere n t re spo n d en ts m ig ht e xp e rien ce e ve n ts q u ite d iffe re n tly . C o n side r a so c ial sec u rity rec ipie n t w h o de p o sits h er c h eq u e at the b an k ea c h m o n th w h e n it arrive s an d inte rac ts w ith th e sa m e teller e a ch tim e . T h is e v en t w o u ld b e q uite reg u lar a n d sim ilar. In c on trast, a bu sy p ro fe ssio n a l w h os e sa la ry is direc tly d ep o sited a nd w h o se tran sa ctio n s a re prim a rily w ith a n au tom a te d te lle r m a ch in e, w o uld b e lik e ly to in tera ct w ith a h um an te ller irreg u larly (a lth o u g h e ac h inte rac tio n m ay be sim ilar to th e n ex t). U n d e r o ur ap p ro a c h, a n ev e nt’ s re gu lar ity an d sim ila rity w e re ba sed o n w ith in -su b jec t ju d g em e nts. T h is m e a nt th a t on e re sp on d e nt co u ld jud g e a n e ve n t to b e V ery R eg u la r an d a n o th e r re sp o n de n t c o uld ra te th e sam e e v en t V e ry Irre g u la r, a n d sub se q ue n t a n aly ses co u ld ta ke into a cc o un t su ch ind ivid u a l d iffere nc e s. F o r th is rea so n, av e rag e re g u la rity a nd sim ilarity ra tin g s a re n o t pa rtic u la rly im p o rtan t in o ur a n aly ses. T h ree d iffe ren t ra nd o m ord e rs o f th e ev e nts w e re g en era ted fo r ea c h re sp o n de n t, on e fo r e lic itin g th e fre q u en c y rep o rts a nd retro spe c tiv e p roto c o ls, on e fo r th e re g ula rity ra tin g ta sk , an d on e fo r th e sim ila rity ra tin g ta sk. A sing le
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347
refe ren c e p e rio d o f o ne m o n th w a s u se d for the fre q u en c y q u estio n s. O u r p ilo t stud y ind ica ted tha t re sp on d e nts fo u nd it d isru p tiv e to sh ift refe ren c e p e rio d s b etw ee n q ue stio n s a nd tha t ze ro re sp on se s w ere rela tiv e in freq u en t ac ro ss th e ev e n ts fo r th is tim e fram e . R e spo n se C o d in g. T h e au th ors liste n e d to a su b set o f tap e d in terv ie w s an d d ev e lo p ed a p re lim in a ry tax o n om y fo r the re sp on se strate gie s th at w e re ev id en t in th e p roto co ls. T w o g ro up s of tw o c o de rs th en classified th e c om p le te se t o f p ro to co ls, rea ch in g e ac h co d in g de c isio n b y c on se n su s w ith in a g ro u p , an d ex p a nd in g the c o din g tax o n o m y a s n e ed e d . B e ca u se th e g ro up s co n siste n tly d isa g re e d o n h o w to c od e o n e ev e n t (rec eiv in g su bsc ription m a g az ine s) it w a s elim in a te d from fu rth e r a n aly sis. In a first p ass at co d in g th e p roto co ls, th e in te rg ro u p relia bility fo r the n in e re m a inin g ite m s w as .7 5 . A ll disc rep a nc ie s w ere the n reso lve d thro u g h disc ussio n be tw ee n th e g ro u p s so th a t sub se q ue n t an a ly se s w ere ba se d o n co m p le te ag re em en t. T he fin a l se t o f stra teg ies is p re se nte d in T a b le 2 . R e spo n se T im es. T h e d ura tio n o f e ac h tap e d resp o n se w as m e asu re d from co m ple tio n o f the q u e stio n b y th e in te rv ie w er to in itiatio n o f th e sp o ke n fre qu e n c y by th e re sp o n d e n t. R e sp on se tim e s in c lu d e d th e d u ratio n s o f ex tran e o us sp ee c h p rio r to th e ac tu al fre qu e n cy , fo r e xa m p le , q u a lifiers suc h as ``I’ d sa y a bo u t . . .’ ’ a n d v erb a lisa tio n s of resp o n de n ts’ th in k ing , su c h a s ``W ell I do it tw ic e a w e e k, so . . .’ ’ . T h e d u ratio n s w e re m ea su red b y bo th g ro u p s of c od e rs. A s th e ir m e a sure m e n ts w e re h igh ly c o rrelate d (r = .9 7, P < .0 1, n = 9 50 ), o nly o n e se t of tim e s w a s fu rth e r a n aly sed . A bo u t 9 % o f the se
TABLE 2 Major Response Categories and Percentage of Observations R e s p o n s e S t ra te g y
P e r c e n t a g e o f O b s e rv a tio n s
N o n -ze r o R e s p o n se s 1 . E p is o d e E n u m e ra tio n
27
2 . R a te R e trie v a l
15
3 . R a te E s tim a t io n
12
4 . R a te an d A d ju s tm e n t 5 . G e n e ra l Im p re s s io n 6 . U n c o d a b le
9 18 18 n = 6 60
Z er o R e s p o n s e s 7 . A t te m p te d E n u m era ti o n
15
8 . R a te R e trie v a l
80
9 . U n c o d a b le
5 n = 2 65
348
CONRAD, BROWN, CASHMAN
ob se rv ation s w e re ex c lud e d b ec au se re spo n d en ts a sk ed fo r c la rific a tio n o r w e re disru p te d b efo re resp o n d in g .
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION T h e o v era ll resp o n se ra te w a s 42 % w h ich is so m ew h at lo w fo r m o st su rv ey s. H o w e ve r, th e re sea rch p ro c ed u re c o uld ha v e b ee n at le a st p artially re sp on sib le : 14 % o f th os e co n ta cted w ere w illin g to b e in te rv iew e d b u t n o t w illin g to be tap e 3 re c o rde d . It is p o ssib le tha t so m e o f th o se p eo p le w h o w e re co n tac ted b u t de c lin e d to p articip ate co u ld ha v e b e en p e rsua d ed to tak e pa rt; h o w ev e r, to re d u ce in terv iew tim e a nd asso c iated co st, the in terv ie w e rs w ere in stru c te d n o t to e ng a ge in suc h ``c o n ve rsio n ’ ’ ac tiv itie s.
Response Strategies R e sp o nse stra te g ie s w e re classifie d se p ara tely fo r freq u en c y rep o rts o f ze ro (2 6 % ) an d a ll o th er v a lu e s (7 4% ). L o o k in g first a t th e n on -z e ro re sp on se s, 1 8 % of th e p ro to co ls w e re u n co d a b le . A to tal o f 9 6 % o f th e re m a in in g d ata w a s assig n ed to on e o f fiv e resp o n se stra teg y ca teg o ries: e piso d e e n u m e ration , rate re triev a l, ra te estim a tio n , rate a nd ad ju stm e nt, g e ne ral im p re ssio n . T o a ce rtain ex te nt, a ll b ut ep iso de en u m e ra tio n re ly o n in fo rm atio n a b ou t th e g e ne ra l e v en t ca teg o ry, rath er th a n in d iv id u al e piso d e s, a nd so m ig h t b e re d u ce d to a sing le ra te strate g yÐ a nd this is w h a t is ty p ic a lly d on e (e .g . B u rto n & B la ir, 19 9 1 ; H u b b a rd , 1 9 92 ). H o w e v e r, th e p roto co ls sug g e ste d th at th e u n de rly in g p ro ce sse s w e re differe nt, so th e five d istinc tio n s w e re m a in ta in e d . T h e re m a in in g 4 % o f th e c o da b le p ro to co ls w e re a ssig n ed to the c a te g ory o f ite m e nu m era tio n (in pa rtic u lar, listin g th e c a ta lo gu e s ty pic ally rec e ive d in a n sw e ring th e c ata log u e qu e stio n ). T h ese are n o t co n sid ere d furth er be c au se th ey w e re rare a nd div erg e d fro m th e p he n o m e n on o f in te re st in th a t resp o nd e nt s w e re no t co n c ern e d w ith ev e nts b u t ra th e r w ith ite m s. B a sed on re p or ts in th e litera ture , w e ex p ec ted e v id e n ce in th e pro toc o ls o f bo th e piso d e e nu m era tio n a n d o f so m e k ind o f rate strate gie s, an d b o th w e re ob se rv ed : 2 7% o f th e p ro to c o ls w ere co d e d as ep isod e e nu m era tio n a nd 3 6 % w e re co d ed a s so m e ty p e o f ra te -b ase d stra teg y . A n ex a m p le o f a n e p iso d e en u m e ratio n p ro to co l, in re sp on se to th e qu e stio n a b ou t g a s p u rc h ase s, is ``T h ree . T o d ay a n d . . . a b ou t ten d a ys ag o o n a job . . . an d o n e oth e r tim e w h e n I w a s pra ctica lly e m p ty .’ ’ W e su b div id ed th e ra te -b a sed resp o n se s in to rate re triev a l (1 5 % ), ra te e stim atio n (12 % ), a n d rate a nd ad ju stm en t (9 % ). B y rate
3
T h e k in d o f re s p o n s e-t im e m e th o d o lo g y p ro m o te d b y B a s si li (1 9 9 3 ; B a s si li & F le tc h e r, 1 9 9 1 )
w o u ld b e o f so m e h e lp u n d er t h e s e c irc u m s ta n c e s b ec a u s e it ti m e s te le p h o n e re s p o n s es ``li v e ’ ’ a s o p p o s e d t o m e a s u r in g re c o r d e d r es p o n se s . H o w e v e r, o u r p ro c e d u re in v o lv e d c o d i n g re tro s p e c tiv e st ra te g y re p o rt s w h ic h re q u ir es a p e rm a n e n t re c o rd o f th e re p o rt. F o r th is re a s o n w e ta p e re co rd e d th e in te rv i e w s.
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retrie v al w e are re fe rrin g to rate in fo rm atio n sto red so m e tim e p rio r to th e inte rv ie w , e .g . ``F ou r. I g o g ro ce ry sh op p in g o n F rid a y s.’ ’ R a te e stim atio n refe rs to th o se o b ser va tio n s fo r w hic h re sp o nd e n ts co m p u te ra te in fo rm atio nÐ a s o pp o se d to re trie vin g itÐ w h ile an sw e rin g th e q u e stio n. A ra te estim a tio n p ro to co l re fe rred to the re sp on d en t’ s k n ow led g e tha t the e ve n t o cc u rre d reg u la rly b u t w ith a n un c erta in freq u en c y , th a t fre q ue n c y w as so m eh o w co n stru c ted in the re sp o n se p ro c ess. A n ex a m p le , in re sp o n se to the au to m a te d telle r m ac h in e q u estio n, is ``E igh t . . . L ast w e e k I w e n t tw ic e so . . . in th e la st m o n th th at w ou ld be eig h t.’ ’ R e sp on d e n ts w e re c on sid ere d to u se th e rate a n d ad ju stm en t strate gy w h e n the y relie d o n rate in fo rm a tio n (w e d id no t d istin gu ish b etw ee n retriev e d an d estim a ted rate s fo r th is stra te g y) a n d a dju sted u p o r do w n to ac co u n t fo r ex c ep tio ns to th e rate . A n ex a m p le fro m th e q ue stio n ab o u t gro ce ry sh op p ing is: ``E igh t . . . O n c e a w e ek , reg u larly , an d fo u r m ore tim e s fo r . . . sp on ta ne o u s ite m s.’ ’ In a dd itio n to ep iso de en u m era tio n a n d th e se v era l ra te -b ase d stra te g ie s, w e o bse rv ed e vid e nc e in 1 8% o f th e pro to co ls th a t re sp on d en ts re lie d o n g en e ra l im p ressio n s. T h e k e y c h ara c te ristic o f g en er al im pre ssion rep o rts is tha t resp o n d en ts u se a c o arse se n se o f m a gn itu de to infe r a sp ec ific fre q u en c y . T h is w as u su ally in d ic at ed b y so -ca lle d va g u e q u an tifie rs (W r ig h t, G ask e ll, & O ’ M u irch e artaig h , 19 9 4 )Ð m ag n itu d e term s tha t h av e q u an tita tiv e im p lic a tio n s b ut a re n o t ex p lic itly n um e ric al, fo r e xa m p le ``a ll th e tim e’ ’ , o r ``a lo t’ ’ . C on sid er th e fo llo w in g re po rt in resp o n se to the q u estio n a bo u t ba n k te lle r tra n sac tion s. ``E ig h t . . . W e ’ re in th e p ro ce ss o f b u yin g a h ou se so I’ v e b ee n g oin g the re a lot.’ ’ T h is stra teg y is fu n da m e n tally differe n t fro m e nu m era tio n (an d its v a ria nts) an d ra te-b ase d re sp o nd in g (an d its v a ria n ts) in th a t resp o n de n ts w ho lac k an y nu m eric al fre q u en c y in form atio n c an p rov id e a nu m erica l resp o n se b y co n ve rting th eir im pre ssio ns o f fre q u en c y to a n u m b er. T u rn in g n ow to th e z e ro re sp on se s, 2 6 % o f all re p or te d fre q ue n c ie s w ere ze ro . O f the se , 5 % w ere un c o da b le. T h e pro to co ls for th e re m a inin g 2 1% o f the resp o n ses in d ic ate d th a t re sp on d e n ts u se tw o stra teg ies to d eterm in e tha t tha t th e y ha v e no t e ng a ge d in an a c tiv ity o ve r a g iv e n tim e fram e . In p artic u lar, th e pro toc o ls co n ta ine d ev id e nc e o f a tte m p ted e nu m era tio n an d rate re trie v a l. P ro to c o ls w e re co d e d fo r atte m p ted e n u m e ra tio n if th e re w a s ev id en c e th a t a m em or y sea rch fa ile d to lo ca te an y ep iso de s w ithin the tim e p eriod . F o r e xa m p le , a p roto co l p ro vid e d in re sp o nse to th e ic e cre am q ue stio n w a s, ``Z e ro . . . T ry in g to re m e m b e r if m y w ife h a d b o u gh t a n y th is m o n th . S he h asn ’ t.’ ’ T h e se w ere a pp a ren t fo r 1 5 % o f ze ro re sp o nse s. F o r 8 0% o f ze ro re sp o nse s, re sp o nd e n ts in dic ate d th a t th ey n e ve r en g a ge in th e ac tiv ity o r sim p ly kn e w the y ha d n ot d o ne so in th e pre v io u s m on th . T he se p ro to c o ls w e re co d e d for ra te re trie v a l. F o r ex a m p le , in an s w e rin g th e q ue stio n a b o ut A T M a ctiv ity , o ne re sp on d e nt re p or te d ``N on e . . . I d on ’ t u se the m .’ ’
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Regularity and Similarity Ratings C o n siste n t w ith fin din g s rep o rted b y M e no n (1 9 93 ), reg u larity an d sim ila rity ha d cle ar effe cts o n th e ch o ice o f re spo n se stra te g y. M e a n re gu lar ity a n d sim ila rity ra tin g s fo r the m ajo r resp o n se stra teg ies are p rese n te d in T a b le 3 . L o o k in g first at n o n -ze ro resp o n ses , re g ula rity v arie d w ith th e fiv e re spo n se 4 stra teg ies, F (4 ,4 24 ) = 17 .4 1 , P < .0 1 , M SE = 1 2 .8 5 . W h en resp o n d en ts en u m e rate d ep isod es, th e y ju d g ed e v en ts to b e le ss re gu lar th a n w he n the y re triev e d ra tes, F (1 ,4 2 4 ) = 5 4 .8 5, P < .0 1 , M SE = 4 0 .4 9 , c o nfirm in g ou r first p red ictio n . M o re o ve r, re gu larity ra tin g s on tria ls e x hib itin g e p isod e en u m e ra tion w ere lo w e r th a n fo r a ll o th e r strate gie s, F (1 ,4 2 4 ) = 6 2 .5 8, P < .0 1 , M S E = 46 .2 0 , b y a S c h effe te st. T h is last e ffe ct u n d ersc ore s th e ide a th at e v en ts a re en u m era te d p rim a rily w h e n th ey o c c ur o n a n irre g u lar b a sis. F ina lly , fre qu e n cy re p orts re lie d o n ge n era l im p re ssio ns w h en e v en ts w e re le ss re g ula r th a n fo r th e th ree strate gie s in v o lv in g ra te s, F (1,4 24 ) = 1 3 .5 4 , P < .0 1 , b y a S c he ffeÂtest. It see m s, th e re fo re , th a t like en u m e ration , g e n era l im p re ssio n s a re u se d in th e ab se n ce of rate in fo rm a tio n . H o w ev e r, a s is de scrib e d in the n e xt se ctio n, the freq u en c y co n ditio ns u n de r w hic h en u m e ra tion a nd g e ne ral im p ressio n s are u se d are diffe re n t. S im ila rity sho w e d m u ch the sa m e p atte rn as re gu larity. O v era ll, sim ila rity va rie d w ith resp o n se stra te g y, F (4 ,4 2 3 ) = 4 .3 9 , P < .0 1 , M SE = 3 .0 4 . In p articu lar, sim ila rity rating s fo r e p iso d e e n um e ratio n w ere lo w e r th an fo r ra te retriev a l,
TABLE 3 Mean Regularity and Similarity Ratings for the Major Response Strategies R e s p o n se S tr a t e g y
R e g u la r ity *
S i m i la r ity * *
1 . E p is o d e E n u m e ra tio n
2 .3 9
2 .8 6
2 . R a te R e tri e v a l
3 .6 6
3 .5 4
3 . R a te E s ti m a tio n
3 .4 3
3 .3 1
4 . R a te a n d A d j u s tm e n t
3 .6 5
3 .4 3
5 . G en e ra l Im p re ss io n
2 .9 1
3 .1 1
6 . A tte m p te d E n u m e rat io n
1 .8 5
2 .4 6
7 . R a te R e tri e v a l
1 .4 0
2 .1 6
N o n -z er o R e s p o n s es
Z e ro R es p o n s e s
*
1 = v e ry irr eg u la r, 4 = v e ry re g u la r
* * 1 = v e ry d iffe re n t, 4 = v e ry s im il a r
4
A ll A N O V A re su lt s re p o rt ed h e re a re b a s e d o n m o d e ls t h a t in c lu d e a s u b je c t te rm a n d a n i te m
te rm as c la s s ifie d v a ria b le s . T h e s u b j e ct t e rm i s in c lu d e d to a c c o u n t fo r re p e a te d m e as u re s e ffe c ts a n d th e i te m t erm is in c lu d e d to ac c o u n t fo r i te m e ffe c ts . A ll c o n t ra sts re p o rte d o n th e b a s is o f A N O V A a re p l an n e d u n le s s o t h e rw is e n o te d .
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351
F (1 ,4 2 3 ) = 1 2 .5 4 , P < .0 1 , M S E = 8 .7 0 , c o n firm in g t h e s e c o n d p r e d ic t io n . S im ila rity ra tin g s w ere low e r fo r ep iso de e n um era tio n tha n fo r all o f th e o th e r stra teg ie s, F (1 ,4 2 3 ) = 1 6.4 2, P < .0 1, M S E = 1 1.3 9, b y a Sc h effeÂte st, c on sisten t w ith th e id e a th at en u m era tio n is u sed p rim arily w h e n e piso d es a re q u ite d issim ila r a n d , co n se qu e n tly , d iffe ren tiated in ep isod ic m em o ry . B o th ev e nt c h ar ac te ristic s v aried w ith th e stra teg ies ob se rv ed fo r ze ro resp o n ses. E v en ts w e re ju d g ed le ss re g ula r fo r ra te re trie va l th an for attem pte d en u m e ra tio n , F (1 ,1 4 4 ) = 5 .2 5 , P < .0 5 , M S E = 2 .4 8 , th o ug h b o th m e a n ra tin g s are v ery lo w (1.4 0 a nd 1 .8 5 , re spe ctiv ely ). K n ow in g th a t the ev e nt o f in tere st h a s n o t o cc u rre d in th e re fere n ce p eriod , resp o n de n ts m a y w e ll be m a p pin g the ir b e lie f tha t th e e v en t c o uld h ap p en in a g ive n m o n th o nto th e re gu la rity ra tin g sca le . B y this v ie w , th e m o re p lau sib le it is th at a n ev en t m ig h t oc c ur, th e m o re re g u la rly it is ju d g ed to o cc u r. S im ilarity ra tin g s a re lo w in ge n era l, b ut lo w er fo r rate retrie v al (2.1 6 ) th a n fo r a ttem p ted e n um e ratio n (2 .4 6 ), F (1 ,1 4 1 ) = 4 .3 9 , P < .0 5, M S E = 3 .0 4 . O n e e xp la na tio n is th at re sp o nd e nts tre at th e lo w e n d o f th e sim ila rity sca le a s a ``u n iqu e n ess’ ’ sca le w h e re lo w e r v alu e s are m o re un iq ue : ev e n ts th at a re k n ow n n ev e r to o cc u r w o u ld b e ex trem e ly u n iq u e (lo w sim ila rity ) if th e y w ere so m e h o w to o c cu r, an d e v en ts th at c an p lau sib ly o cc u r w ou ld sh are so m e ch a ra c te ristic s w h e n th e y d o in fac t ta ke p la c e, m a k in g th e m less u n iq u e (hig h er sim ilarity). R e g ula rity a nd sim ilarity w e re co rrela ted a cro ss th e e n tire d ata set; th a t is fo r b oth n o n -z e ro an d z e ro resp o n ses (r = .4 8 , P < .0 1 , n = 9 3 6 ). A ltho u g h o n e ca n im a gin e sc en a rios in w h ich reg u larity a nd sim ilarity a re ind e p en d en t, th eir co rrela tio n is c o nsiste nt w ith o ur e a rlier co n ten tio n th at e v en ts th at o c cu r o n a reg u la r sch e d ule a re ex p e rie n ce d m uc h th e sa m e fro m o ne ep isod e to th e n e xt: ev e n if the y diffe r in all o th er c h ara cteristics, e a ch o cc u rren c e o f a reg u la rly o cc u rrin g e v en t is te m p o rally sim ila r to th e n ex t.
Frequency A no th er fac to r th a t h as be e n sh o w n to affec t w h ich e stim a tio n strateg ie s resp o n d en ts c h oo se is th e a p pro x im a te le v el of an e v en t’ s fre q ue n cy . In p artic u lar, sub jec ts a re m o re lik e ly to en u m e ra te low -freq u e nc y tha n h ig h freq u en c y e ve n ts in arrivin g a t fre q u en c y rep o rts, p re su m a bly b e ca u se th e e ffo rt o f re trie v in g ind iv idu a l ep isod e s inc rea se s w ith the n u m b e r of e p iso d es (B la ir & B urto n , 19 8 7 ; B u rto n & B la ir, 1 9 9 1; M ea n s & L o ftu s, 1 99 1 ). T h is is rep lic ate d in th e cu rre nt stu d y. M ea n freq u e nc ies an d tim e s for fiv e stra teg ies are p rese nte d in T a ble 4 . O v e ra ll, freq u en c ies v a ry w ith stra teg y , F (4 ,4 25 ) = 10 .9 9 , P < .0 1, M S E = 1 1 53 .0 9 . In a d dition , freq u en c y fo r e p iso d e e n um era tio n is lo w e r tha n fo r ra te re trie v al, F (1 ,4 25 ) = 1 6 .2 7 , P < .0 1 , M S E = 17 0 7 .4 0 a n d fo r all o th e r stra teg ie s, F (1 ,4 2 5 ) = 4 1.1 8, P < .0 1, M S E = 4 3 21 .4 3 , by a S c h effeÂte st. T h e o b serv a tio n th at re sp o nd e n ts p rim arily e nu m era te lo w -freq u en c y e v en ts (2.3 o cc u rren c es pe r m on th o n a ve rag e ) m ay w e ll be re la te d to th e p rese nc e o f
352
CONRAD, BROWN, CASHMAN TABLE 4 Mean Frequency and Response Times for the Major Response Strategies R e sp o n s e S t ra te g y
F req uency
T im e (in s e co n d s )
1 . E p i so d e E n u m e ra tio n
2 .3
4 .5 2
2 . R a t e R et rie v a l
7 .8
4 .3 6
3 . R a t e E s tim a ti o n
1 1 .1
7 .2 8
4 . R a t e a n d A d ju s tm e n t
1 1 .9
6 .6 7
5 . G e n e ra l Im p re s s io n
1 2 .3
6 .1 7
6 . A t te m p t e d E n u m e ra ti o n
0
3 .8 7
7 . R a t e R et rie v a l
0
1 .5 8
N o n -z e r o R e s p o n s e s
Z e r o R e s p o n s es
co n tex tua l in fo rm a tio n for th ese ev e n ts. In o rde r to re trie ve e ve n ts, the re m us t b e som e in form atio n to d isting u ish o n e ev e n t from a n oth e r. C o n tex t c an p la y ex a ctly su c h a d isting u ish in g ro le. B e c au se of the ir re p etitio n , h ig h -fre q u en c y ev e nts m a y b ec o m e d e co n tex tua lise d (B a hrick & K aris, 1 9 8 2 ; L in ton , 19 8 2 ; S tru b e, 19 8 7 ) an d so c a nn o t ea sily b e retriev e d . R e sp on d e nts u sed ge n era l im p re ssio n s to re p o rt the hig h est av e ra g e e stim ates (1 2 .3 o cc u rre n ce s p er m o n th ). T his is co n sisten t w ith a fin d in g b y B ruc e (B ruc e & R e e d, 19 8 8 ; B ruc e & V a n P e lt, 1 9 8 9) co n c ern ing estim a tes o f e v en t fre q u en c y o n a b icy c le trip . T h e re la tion sh ip b etw ee n g e n era l im p ressio n s a n d h ig h fre q u e n c y e stim a te s c a n b e e x p lain e d if w e a ssu m e th a t re p e ate d oc c urre n ce s a llo w re sp o n de n ts to d ire ctly , a lb e it im p re cise ly , e n co d e th e fac t th a t p articu lar ep iso d es are fre qu e n t. F o r e x am p le , the fre q ue n cy sto re d fo r a re p e ate d ev e nt m igh t b e ``a lot’ ’ . In freq u e ntly o cc u rrin g e v en ts w o u ld be le ss lik ely to le ad to the im p ressio n th a t th e b eh av io ur is ra re, b ec au se th e re is sim p ly le ss o p po rtun ity to form this im p ressio n . B e ca u se re sp on d en ts d o no t h av e pre c ise ra te in fo rm a tion a v aila ble w he n the y u se a g e ne ra l im pre ssio n stra te g y (th e se e ve n ts re ce ive th e se co n d lo w e st re g u larity rating s), a ll th ey ca n do is co n ve rt th e ir im p re ssio n tha t fre q u en c y is h ig h to a re lative ly la rge n um b er. F ig u re 1 p re se nts the p erc en ta ge s o f d iffe re nt freq u en c y re sp o nse s fo r e p iso d e en u m e ratio n, ra te re trie v al, rate e stim atio n, a n d g en er al im p re ssion stra teg ies. T h e p rim a ry th in g to n otice is th e p e ak s: w h e n resp o nd e n ts e nu m era te d e p iso d es (F ig . 1 a) th eir e stim ate s w e re usu a lly sm a ll w ith th e n um b er o f la rge r e stim ates dro p pi ng o ff q u ick ly . T h e p ea k s for ra te re triev a l (F ig . 1 b ) an d rate estim a tio n (F ig . 1d ) stra te g ies p rim a rily re fle ct w e e kly a ctivity : T h e p ea k s a t fou r, eig ht, an d tw e lv e (o v er the tw o stra te g ie s) su g g est th a t resp o n d en ts h a d a cc e ss to w e e k ly ra te in form atio n an d the n m u ltip lied th ese w ee k ly ra tes by fo u r (th e nu m b er o f w e e ks in a m on th) . A lth o ug h rate re trie v al an d rate e stim a tio n bo th
353
F re q u e n c y o f re p o rte d v a lu e s fo r fo u r s tra te g i e s : (a ) e p is o d e e n u m e ra tio n , (b ) ra te re t ri e v a l , (c ) g e n e ra l im p r es s io n , a n d
(d ) ra te e s tim a tio n .
FIG. 1.
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s h o w e v id e n c e o f c o n v e r ti n g w e e k ly i n f o r m a t io n t o m o n t h l y f i g u r e s , re sp o n de n ts’ v e rb a l pro toc o ls sug g est th at the u n de rly in g ra tes h av e d iffe ren t orig ins fo r the se tw o strate gie s. R e triev e d ra tes a re so n a m e d be c au se the y a pp e a r to b e sto re d ; estim a te d rate s a p p ea r to b e th e re su lt o f p a rtia l en u m e ratio n. T h is distin c tio n is fu rth e r sup p o rted by th e rea c tio n tim e d ata pre se nte d in th e n ex t sec tio n . W h en re spo n d en ts a nsw ere d on th e b a sis of th eir g en e ral im p re ssio n s (F ig . 1c ) th eir estim a te s w e re o ften d ivisib le b y fiv e . T his h a s the a pp e ara nc e o f ro u n di ng (H u tte nlo ch e r, H e d ge s, & B rad b u rn, 1 9 90 ). It w o u ld m ak e sen se fo r re sp o n de n ts usin g th e g en e ra l im p ressio n stra teg y to p ro d uc e ro u n d ed e stim ates be c au se th ey n e ed to co n ve rt the ir im p re ssio n s, w h ich are q u alitativ e , in to nu m b ers; o n e w a y to d o this is to re po rt a p roto ty p ica l q u an tity fo r th e a v aila ble ve rb al d e scrip tio n , fo r e xa m p le , q u an tify in g an im p re ssio n o f ``pre tty o ften ’ ’ a s ``1 0 ’ ’ . In th is d o m a in (as in m an y o th ers) su c h p ro to typ ica l v a lu e s ten d to b e div isib le b y fiv e . O n e re aso n th a t a resp o nd e n t w o uld m ap an im p re ssion to su c h a v alu e is tha t h e o r sh e is p ro b ab ly m o re like ly to thin k o f a p ro to ty p ic al th a n a no n -pr oto typ ic al q ua n tity . M o reo v er to p ro v ide a n on -p roto typ ica l q ua n tity , sa y 11 , w o u ld im p ly a le v el o f p rec isio n th a t a p ro to ty p ica l v a lue w ou ld n o t ne c essa rily c on v ey ; b ec a use th e co n v ersio n fro m a n im p re ssion to a n um b er is in h e ren tly im p re c ise , re sp o nd e nts m ay be m o re in clin ed to rep o rt th e ro un d e d va lu e.
Response Times N o t o n ly d o fre q u en c y rep o rts v a ry w ith re sp o nse strate gie s, b u t th e y are rela te d to resp o n se tim e s in d iffe re nt w ay s fo r th e v a rio u s stra teg ie s. R esp o ns e tim e s ha v e b ee n ex a m in ed in b eh a vio u ral fre qu e nc y stu die s in re latio n to a cc u ra c y (B u rto n & B la ir, 19 9 1 ) an d as a n in d ica to r o f effo rt (M e no n , 19 9 3 ). In th e cu rre nt stu d y, re spo n se tim es p ro v ide d e tail ab o u t h ow th e d iffe re n t stra te gie s are ex e cu te d. In pa rtic ula r, w e p re d ic ted th at a s fre q ue n c y re p o rts b a sed o n en u m e ratio n in c re ase , th e laten c ies for th o se re p or ts sho u ld inc rea se, b u t fre q u en c y a n d tim e sh ou ld no t be asso c iate d fo r ra te-b a sed rep o rts. A s p re dic te d , th e tim e to rep o rt a freq u en c y usin g th is stra teg y in c rea se s w ith 2 th e siz e o f th e fre qu e nc y (r = .2 5, P < .0 1). A lso a s p re d ic ted , th ere is n o re latio nsh ip b e tw e e n resp o n se tim e an d fre qu e n cy w h e n resp o n d en ts a n sw ere d by re triev in g a rate . R eg re ssio n eq u a tio n s, in w h ich resp o n se tim e is a fu n ctio n of estim a ted ra te, a re pre se nte d fo r fiv e stra te g ie s in T ab le 5 . T h e d iffe re nc e s be tw e e n th e fun c tio n s for th ese tw o strate g ie s ind ica te th at, fo r en u m era tio n , a no tic e a ble am ou n t o f tim e is asso c iate d w ith th e re triev a l of e ac h a d d itio na l ep iso de (ab o u t .8 4 sec o n ds, u sin g th e slo pe of the reg re ssio n eq u atio n fo r en u m e ratio n a s a n e stim a te ), b u t fo r rate re trie va l, tim e d oe s no t c h an g e w ith th e siz e o f ra te s; the inv a ria n ce o f tim e w ith fre qu e nc y fo r ra te-b a sed re spo n ses sug g es ts th at ac c ess to ra te in fo rm a tio n re q uire s a fix e d n u m b e r o f m e n ta l
355
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TABLE 5 Regression Equations for Response Time as a Function of Estim ated Frequency R e sp o n s e S t ra te g y
2
E q u a tio n
r
P
E p is o d e E n u m era ti o n
t im e = 2 .6 4 + .8 4 (re p o rte d fre q u e n c y )
.2 5
< .0 0 0 1
R a te R e tri e v a l
t im e = 4 .2 3 + .0 2 (re p o rte d fre q u e n c y )
.0 0
n .s.
G e n e ra l Im p re ss i o n
t im e = 6 .0 8 + .0 1 (re p o rte d fre q u e n c y )
.0 0
n .s.
R a te E s ti m a tio n
t im e = 5 .5 6 + .1 5 (re p o rte d fre q u e n c y )
.1 4
< .0 0 1 3
R a te a n d A d j u s t m e n t
t im e = 5 .9 7 + .0 7 (re p o rte d fre q u e n c y )
.0 4
n .s.
T i m e i s m e a s u re d in s ec o n d s .
o pe ratio n sÐ p resu m ab ly a sin gle retrie v al. T h ere w as a lso n o re latio nsh ip b etw ee n re spo n se tim e a n d th e m a g nitud e o f th e re po rted freq u e nc ies w h e n resp o n d en ts u sed th e ir g e ne ral im p ressio ns. C lea rly , ge n er al im p ressio n s a re n o t b ase d on en um era tio n . T h e p atte rn fo r th is stra teg y co u ld in dic a te th a t im p ressio n s are retriev e d fully form ed . A ltern a tiv e ly , it c ou ld su gg e st th a t th e resu lt o f asse ssin g o n e’ s m em ory is a g en e ral im p ressio n . W e c an n ot d istin gu ish b etw ee n th e se in te rp reta tio ns o n the b asis o f th e c u rre n t d a ta . W h en resp o n d en ts b a sed the ir e stim ates o n ra te e stim a tio n , the ir re sp on se 2 tim e in cr ea sed w ith th e siz e o f th e estim a tes (r = .1 4, P < .0 1 ) alth o u gh th e rela tio ns hip d o e s n o t a pp e a r to b e as stro n g a s it is fo r ep isod e en u m e ra tion (th e slop e o f th e re gre ssion e q u atio n is .1 5). M ed ian re sp on se tim e s (fo r no n -ze ro resp o n ses) a re p lotted a ga inst rep o rte d fre q u en c y fo r ep iso d e e nu m era tio n an d rate e stim atio n in F ig . 2 . If the re w e re le ss th a n fiv e o b serv ation s fo r a p a rtic u la r freq u en c y , th a t v a lu e w a s o m itted from th e p lot. B oth cu rv e s sh o w a lin ea r rela tio ns hip b etw e en tim e a nd fre q ue n cy , altho u g h th e c urv e fo r rate estim a tio n is c le a rly sh a llo w e r th an th e c u rve fo r en u m e ration . O n e e xp la na tio n fo r a slo p e o f in term e d iate ste e pn e ss is th a t ra tes a re e stim ate d by e nu m era tin g e piso d es fo r a p ortion of th e re fere n ce p e rio d , for ex a m p le a w ee k ; the re sp o nd e nt the n g en e ra lises to th e co m p le te tim e p eriod m u ch as w o u ld be th e c a se w ith rate retrie v al. It is th e ex trap o latio n pa rt of th e stra teg y tha t w o uld w e ak e n th e rela tio ns hip b e tw e e n fre q u en c y an d tim e re la tiv e to tha t o b serv e d for pu re en u m e ra tio n , b ec au se it is p ossib le fo r a sin g le m e n ta l o pe ratio n (p re sum ab ly m u ltip lic a tio n ) to pro d uc e a re la tiv e ly la rg e fre q u en c y re po rt. N o re latio n sh ip b etw e e n fre q u e n cy a n d tim e is e vid e n t for ra te a n d ad ju stm en t. T h ere fo re , rate a n d a d ju stm e n t m ay rese m b le ra te retrie v al m o re tha n ra te estim ation (w he re th ere w a s a p o sitiv e relatio n ship be tw ee n tim e an d freq u en c y ). In bo th ra te a n d ad ju stm en t an d ra te re triev a l, the inf orm ation o n w hic h re sp o n de n ts ba se th e ir estim a tes is k n ow n to th e m a p riori a n d is n o t estim a ted thr ou g h pa rtia l en u m e ratio n . H ow e v er, be c au se resp o n ses b a sed o n rate a n d a dju stm e nt w ere g e ne ra lly slo w er tha n th o se b ase d o n ra te retrie v al, ad ju stin g th e ra te se em s to req u ire e x tra tim e . T h is su gg e stio n is stre n gth e n ed b y
356
CONRAD, BROWN, CASHMAN
FIG. 2.
M e d ia n re s p o n s e ti m e as a fu n ct io n o f re p o rte d fre q u e n c y a n d re s p o n s e s tr at e g y .
th e o b serv atio n th a t re g u la rity a nd sim ila rity ju dg e m e n ts fo r th e tw o stra te gie s a r e a b o u t t h e s a m e , i n d i c a t in g t h a t t h e y a r e u s e d u n d e r c o m p a ra b l e circu m stan ce s. A h o m o g en e ity o f slo pe s te st c o n firm s th at the relatio ns hip b e tw e e n tim e a n d fre q u en c y v arie s w ith resp o n se stra teg y , F (4 ,3 6 8 ) = 7 .7 4 , P < .0 1 , M S E = 70 .5 3 . In p a rticu la r, th e reg ress io n lin e fo r ep iso de en u m era tio n w a s stee p er th an tha t fo r ra te r e tr ie v a l a n d g e n e r a l im p r e s si o n , F (1 ,3 6 8 ) = 2 0 .5 6 , P < .0 1 , M S E = 1 87 .4 1 . T h e lin e for ra te e stim ation w a s a lso stee p er th an th at fo r rate
STRATEGIES FOR ESTIMATING FREQUENCY
357
retrie v al, F (1 ,3 6 8 ) = 6 .2 0, P < .0 5 , M SE = 5 6 .4 7 , b y a S c he ffeÂte st, bu t n o t a s stee p as the e piso d e e n um e ration line , F (1 ,3 68 ) = 1 4 .0 5 , P < .0 1 , M S E = 1 2 8.0 4, b y a S c h effeÂte st, su p p or tin g th e ide a th at the rate e stim atio n stra te gy is in de e d a h yb rid of ep isod e e nu m era tio n a nd ra te re trie va l strate gie s. T h ese re su lts su gg e st tha t resp o nd en ts m a y set a th re sh old fo r tim e sp e n t e n u m e rating a n d o nc e th is is ex c ee d e d, th e y e x tra p ola te. R e g ard less o f th e rep o rte d fre q u en c y , ra te re trie va l is fa ste r th a n e p isod e en u m e ra tio n , F (1 ,3 6 8 ) = 1 2 .3 5 , P < .0 1 . T his esse n tia lly re plica tes a pa tte rn fou n d b y M e n on (1 9 9 3) in w hic h fre q u en c y re sp o n ses fo r reg u lar ite m s w ere faste r th a n th o se for irreg u lar item s. A n d it is a lso c o n siste nt w ith th e fin d in g b y B urto n an d B la ir (1 9 9 1) th at in du c in g re spo n d en ts to u se m o re tim e in resp o n d in g inc rea se s the in cid en c e of e n um e ra tio n . B u t a le sso n of th e cu rren t stud y is tha t o ve ra ll tim e te lls o nly p art o f the sto ry . In arrivin g a t a strate g y, resp o n d en ts a re p rob a b ly in flu en c ed by th e n u m b e r of disc rete , tim e -c on su m in g step s the y w ill n e ed to e x ec u te in ord er to re sp o nd . F in a lly , th e tw o stra teg ies ob se rve d fo r z ero fre qu e nc ie s ha v e d iffe ren t resp o n se tim e s. R a te re trie va l resp o n ses w e re faster th an a tte m p te d en u m e ra tio n, F ( 1 ,1 0 3 ) = 3 0 .7 7 , P < .0 1 , M S E = 7 8 .3 5 . A s i m p l e m o d e l f o r a t te m p te d en u m e ra tio n is th at resp o n d en ts sea rch fo r a rep o rtab le e p iso d e fo r a re aso n ab le am o un t o f tim e a n d a b an d o n th e se arc h (re po rt ``z ero ’ ’ ) a fter th a t. B ase d o n th e reg ress io n e qu a tio n fo r (n o n -ze ro ) ep isod e en u m era tio n , tim e to e n um e rate on e ep iso de is ab o ut 3.5 se co n d sÐ in th e sam e ba llp a rk a s the m e an re sp on se tim e o f 3 .9 se co n d s fo r attem pte d e nu m era tio n . O n e rea d in g is th at su b jec ts’ th re sh old is the tim e re q uire d to e nu m e ra te o ne ite m . R ate retrie v al re sp on se s w ere p artic u larly fast fo r z e ro rep o rts; fa ster, in fa c t, th at n o n -ze ro rep o rts b ase d o n the sa m e strate gy . T h is d iffere nc e co u ld arise if no n -ze ro rep o rts d em an d e x tra tim e w h en a rate e x pre sse d in o n e tem p ora l u n it, sa y w e ek s, is a p plie d to a refe ren c e p erio d e xp re sse d in o the r un its, say a m o n th ; in c on trast, n o suc h ex trap o latio n is re q uired in o rd er to k no w th a t a n e v en t n e v er o cc u rs a n d, the refo re , rep o rt z ero .
A Multivariate Approach to Strategy Choice E a c h o f th e v a ria ble s w e h a ve e x am in e d in th e p re vio u s sec tio n s (reg u la rity, sim ila rity , re po rte d freq u en c y , an d re sp o n se tim e) is re la ted to resp o n d en ts’ ch o ice of estim a tio n stra te g y. O n e p ro b le m w ith lo o k in g at th ese re latio nsh ip s ind ivid u a lly is tha t it is h a rd to se e h ow th e y jo in tly lea d a resp o n de n t to u se a p artic u lar stra teg y o n a pa rtic u la r o c ca sio n. F o r ex a m p le, lo w reg u larity lea d s resp o n d en ts to e n u m e ra te w h e n freq u en c y is lo w ; ho w ev e r, low reg u larity lea d s resp o n d en ts to use th e ir g en e ral im p re ssio ns w h en fre q u en c y is hig h . T h is rela tiv e ly sim p le e xa m ple in v olv es tw o v ariab les a n d tw o stra teg ie s. T h e p attern s b ec o m e h ard er to de sc rib e w he n th e y in v o lv e th re e o r fo u r v ariab les an d as m a n y strate gie s. In ord e r to se e h ow p artic u lar pa tte rns o f se v era l v ariab le s
358
CONRAD, BROWN, CASHMAN
are a sso c ia te d w ith the use o f m u ltip le strate gie s w e p e rform ed a d isc rim in an t an a lysis. O u r p rim a ry p u rpo s e w a s to de scrib e the c om b in a tio n s o f v ariab les th a t are re late d to resp o n de n ts’ u se of d iffe ren t stra teg ies, no t to p red ict h ow in div id ua l re sp o n de n ts w o uld a nsw er p a rticu la r q ue stio n s. In fac t, tw o o f th e v a ria ble s in th e an a ly sis (resp o n se tim e an d rep o rte d freq u en c y ) w ere m e asu re d a s p art o f th e re sp o n se p ro ce ss a n d co u ld no t b e use d fo r pre di ctio n p u rpo se s. T h e id e a w a s to fo rm e qu a tio n s fro m v a ria b les su c h a s reg u larity, sim ilarity, rep o rted fre q ue n cy , an d resp o n se tim e s, a n d use th ese e qu a tio n s to te ll u s w h at stra te gy w as m o st lik ely to ha v e b ee n in v olv ed in a n sw e rin g ea c h q u estio n. It w a s th e n p o ssib le to ev a lua te th e ag ree m e n t be tw ee n the strate gy c lassific a tio n s o f th e d isc rim in an t an a lysis a n d th o se o f ou r c o de rs. G oo d a gre e m e nt w o u ld sug g e st th a t th e d isc rim in an t e q u a tio n s c re d ib ly d e sc rib e th e re la tio n sh ip s b e tw e e n th e se va ria b les a n d strateg y ch o ice . R e ca ll tha t th e c od e rs ju d ge d w h a t strate g y w a s use d to a n sw er a qu e stio n so le ly fro m th e c o nte nt o f th e pro to co l, w h ere a s th e eq u atio n s cla ssifie d a n o bse rv atio n sole ly o n the b a sis o f th e d isc rim in a tin g va ria b les, blin d to th e co n te n t o f the p roto co l. In th e in te re st o f sim p lic ity , th e an a ly sis w as lim ited to th re e strate gie s: en u m e ratio n, ra te re trie va l, a n d g en e ral im p re ssio n . T h e se th re e ap p ea r to in v o lv e th e m o st d istin ct un d erly in g o p era tion s, w he re as rate estim a tio n a n d rate an d a dju st strate gie s a re ba sica lly v a ria n ts o f en u m e ra tio n an d /or ra te retriev a l. T h e d iscrim in a n t fu nc tion s w ere d ev e lo p ed u n de r th e a ssum ptio n th a t a ny o f th e th re e strate gie s co u ld o c cu r w ith eq u al p rob a b ility . T h e fu n ctio n s w ere cre a te d to differe ntia te b etw e en th ese strate gie s o n th e ba sis o f fiv e d isc rim in ating v ariab les: reg u la rity, sim ilarity, fre qu e n cy , re spo n se tim e , an d an in dic ato r va riab le th at w a s eq u al to 1 if th e e stim a te w a s d iv isible by five an d 0 if it w a s n ot. T h e last va ria b le w a s c rea ted b ec au se resp o n de n ts ap p ea re d to ro un d th eir estim a te s to m u ltip les of fiv e w h e n the y re lie d o n ge n era l im p re ssio ns. T w o d isc rim in a n t fu n ctio n s e m e rg e d fro m th e a n aly sis. T h e y w ere th e n u se d to cla ssify th e stra te g y fo r e ac h ob se rv a tio n . T h e re su lts ag re ed w ith th e c od e rs’ ju d g em en ts o n 6 5% o f the o b serv a tio n s. A s w e h av e alre ad y n o te d , re gu lar ity an d sim ilarity are c orre lated . W e m ig h t, th ere fo re , b e a b le to rem o v e o n e o f th e se va ria b le s w itho u t sac rific in g c la ssific a tio n po w e r. S im ila rly , the in dic ato r va ria b le th a t is co n ce rne d w ith div isib ility b y fiv e is ba se d on fre q ue n cy an d so th o se tw o v a ria b le s a re n ot in d ep e n de n t. T h e re fo re, th e fu n ction s m ig h t b e fu rthe r sim p lifie d b y re m o v ing o n e o f the se . T o co n stru c t m o re p a rsim on io u s fu n c tio n s, w e p e rfo rm e d a ste p -w ise d isc rim in a n t a na ly sis. T h is re su lte d in tw o disc rim ina n t fu n ctio ns th a t in clu d ed reg u larity, resp o n se tim e a nd d iv isibility b y fiv e : s tra te gy = .2 2 re g ula rity + .2 7 r es p on se tim e + .8 7 d iv is ib le by f iv e s tra te gy = .9 8 re g ula rity ± .3 1 re sp o n se tim e ± .3 3 d ivisi ble b y five .
STRATEGIES FOR ESTIMATING FREQUENCY
359
T h e first fu n ction is c lea rly d riv e n b y div isib ility b y fiv e w ith m od e rate co n trib u tio n s fro m th e o th e r d isc rim in atin g v aria ble s. It sh ou ld, th e re fo re, d isc rim in ate th e use o f g en e ral im p re ssio n s from th e o th er strate gie s b ec au se o f the ro u n din g th a t is ty p ic al w h en usin g th is k ind o f n o n-n u m e rica l in form atio n. T h e se c on d fu n c tio n is do m in a te d by reg u la rity w ith m o d era te co n trib u tio n s from th e oth e r tw o te rm s. T h is fu n ctio n sh ou ld b e e ffe ctiv e at d iscrim in a tin g b etw ee n rate re trie v al a nd e p iso d e e n um e ration b ec a u se th ey a re o n op p o site en d s o f th e re g ula rity ra ng e (rate retriev a l is hig he st, ep isod e e nu m era tio n is low e st). T he m o d e rate re sp o n se tim e effe c t in b o th fu n ctio n s sh o u ld h e lp to d isting u ish b e tw e e n th e u se o f g e ne ra l im p re ssio n s o n the on e h a n d, a n d e p isod e en u m e ra tio n an d rate retriev a l on th e oth er. T h e av e rag e resp o n se tim e fo r g e ne ra l im pr essio n s is 6.1 7 sec o n d s an d th e a v er ag e tim es fo r ep iso d e en u m e ra tio n an d ra te re trie va l are 4.5 2 a nd 4 .5 6 sec o n ds re sp ec tiv e ly . T h e se re d uc e d fu nc tion s w e re alm ost a s e ffec tiv e a t cla ssify in g stra teg y fo r ea c h re spo n se a s w ere th e m ore c o m p lic a te d fu n ctio ns: th e a g re e m e n t b etw ee n the fun c tio n s a n d c o de rs w as 6 4 .4 % . T h e a g re e m e nt fo r e ac h of th e stra teg ies is p re se nte d in T ab le 6. W e in terp ret th is a s a rea so n ab le lev e l o f ag re em en t b ec au se th e fun c tio n s in v olv e on ly th ree d isc rim ina ting v ariab le s an d still a g re e 2 w ith th e co d ers on a b ou t tw o third s o f th e o b serv a tio n s. A c te st on T a ble 6 co n firm s th at th is p attern of a g re em en t w o uld n o t b e ex p e cted by ch a nc e 2 ( c = 1 54 .9 4 , P < .0 01 ), su p p o rtin g ou r im p re ssion tha t th e se d isc rim ina n t fun c tio n s suc c e ssfu lly d iffe ren tiate am on g the se stra te g ies. T h e d isc rim ina n t a na lysis illustra te s th at se v era l fac tors sim ulta ne o usl y a ffec t resp o n d en ts’ strate gy u se. It se e m s lik ely th a t resp o n d en ts w e igh th e av a ila ble info rm a tio n a n d se ttle o n o ne o r m o re stra teg ie s to p u rsu e . C o n side r a n e v en t tha t o c cu rs irreg u la rly a n d o ften . B ec au se of the ev e nt’ s irre gu la rity , th e resp o n d en t is no t lik e ly to a do p t a ra te stra te g y; h o w ev e r h e o r sh e m a y b e a ble
TABLE 6 Classification Results from Discriminant Analysis P r e d ic te d S tr a te g y G e n e ra l C o d e d S tr a te g y E n u m e ra t io n
R a te R e tri e v a l
G e n e ra l Im p re ss i o n s
N u m b e r o f C a s es 162
92
108
E n u m e r a ti o n 11 7
R a t e R e t ri e va l
Im p r e s s io n s
37
8
7 2%
2 3%
5%
18
57
17
2 0%
6 2%
19%
32
17
59
3 0%
1 6%
55%
T o p e n tri e s in e a c h c e ll are n u m b e r o f c a s e s ; b o tt o m e n trie s a re p e rc e n ta g e o f ca s e s in r o w .
360
CONRAD, BROWN, CASHMAN
to re ca ll an d c ou n t d istin ct e p iso d es . B ec a us e th e ev e n t o c cu rs fre qu e n tly , th e re sp o n de n t is lik e ly to ha v e the im p re ssion tha t it o cc u rs freq u en tly . A ssu m in g it is q uic k er to c o n ve rt a n im p ressio n to a n u m b e r th an to e n um e rate a larg e nu m b er o f e piso d es, th e re sp on d en t w o u ld b a se h is o r h er e stim a te o n a ge n era l im pre ssio n.
A TAXONOMY OF STRATEGIES T h e m u ltip le stra te g y v ie w is d ep icte d in te rm s o f th e un d er ly ing pro c esse s fo r 5 ea ch stra te gy in F ig . 3 . F ro m o u r pe rspe c tiv e , stra teg y se lec tio n is restricte d b y th e c o nte nts o f m e m o ry , b ut n o t d icta te d b y th em . A strate gy m a y b e se le cte d w h e n th e rele va n t info rm a tio n is av a ila ble , a lth o u gh in sev e ral situ a tio n s o th e r stra teg ies m a y be a p plica b le a s w ell. H o w ev e r, a g ive n stra te gy w ill d e fin itely no t be sele cted w h en th e re q uisite info rm a tio n is u na v aila ble . T h is p o sitio n im p lie s th a t re sp o n d e n ts m u st o f te n c h o o se b e tw e e n se v e r a l c o m p e tin g stra teg ies. It is lik e ly th at task d em a nd s (e .g . tim e av a ila ble fo r a resp o nse , im po rta nc e of a n ac cu ra te re spo n se ), c on te xt (e.g . p rev iou s stra te g ie s), a n d th e ea se w ith w h ic h d iffere n t typ e s of rele va n t in fo rm atio n c an b e re ca lle d, all in flu en c e the stra te gy se le c tio n p ro ce ss. A t th e h ig he st lev e l w e d istin g u ish b e tw e en en u m e ratio n stra te g ies a n d all oth e r strate gie s. T his reflec ts o u r be lie f th at the re is a fun d a m e n ta l d iffe ren c e be tw e e n u sin g rem em b ere d ep isod e s an d u sin g g e ne ric, ev e nt-typ e info rm atio n a s th e ba sis of a fre q ue n cy rep o rt. T w o o f th e strate gie s w e e xp lo re d ap p e ar u nd e r th e 6 ``E n u m e ra tion ’ ’ h e ad in g : ep iso de en u m e ra tio n a nd rate e stim atio n. T h e first o f th e se is th e sim p le re triev e a n d co u n t stra te g y. It y ie lds th e low e st freq u en c y re p o rts a n d is u sed for th e m os t d istin gu ish a ble an d le a st reg u la r e v en ts. T h e se co n d strate g y, ra te estim a tio n , ap p e ars u nd e r E n um e ra tio n in F ig . 3 be c au se th e rela tio n sh ip b etw ee n rea c tio n tim e s a n d fre qu e nc y rep o rts im plies th a t re sp on d en ts re triev e ind ivid u al e piso d es fro m a sam ple p ortio n o f th e re fe ren c e pe riod an d th en ex tra po late to th e en tire pe rio d . T h e strate g y se em s to be pre ferre d for ev e nts of m o d era te re g ula rity a n d sim ilarity , a nd it p ro d uc es la rge e stim ates. T h e se fa cto rs, in c o m b ina tio n , m ay lea d re sp on d e nts to sto p en u m e ratin g be for e th ey h a ve re triev e d a ll ep iso d es. It is d iffic ult to re c all ep iso de s tha t a re n o t h igh ly distin c tiv e an d re sp o nd e n ts m ay sen se th a t th ere is a la rge n u m b e r o f suc h e piso de s to re trie ve ; th e re g u la rity o f th e e v en ts g iv e s re sp o n de n ts lic en c e to ab a n do n th eir e nu m era tio n an d e xtrap o la te to th e fu ll re fe ren c e p erio d . T h e rig ht side o f F ig . 3 , N o n -e n u m era tio n , is su bd iv id e d in to strate gie s tha t re ly on D ire c t R e triev a l p ro ce sse s a n d th o se th at rely o n so m e typ e of M em o ry 5
T h is i s q u it e s im il a r to th e t ax o n o m y th a t h a s e m e rg e d fro m la b o ra to ry w o r k (B r o w n , 1 9 9 5 ),
a lth o u g h th e c u rre n t ta x o n o m y is a n e x te n s io n in th a t it i n c l u d e s ra t e st ra te g i e s. 6
W e d id n o t o b s e rv e a n e n u m e ra te a n d a d ju st s tra te g y h e re e v e n t h o u g h o n e o f u s (B ro w n , 1 9 9 5 )
h a s o b s e rv e d s u c h a s tr at e g y in a l a b o ra to ry a n al o g u e t o t h i s s tu d y .
361
FIG. 3.
A t ax o n o m y o f st ra te g ie s fo r a n s w e rin g b e h av io u ra l fr eq u en c y q u e s ti o n s .
362
CONRAD, BROWN, CASHMAN
A sse ssm en t. D ire c t R etriev a l stra teg ies op e rate o n in fo rm a tio n tha t is e nc o de d in 7 re sp o n de n ts’ m em or y b efo re th ey h e ar th e q ue stion . T h is store d in fo rm a tio n ca n b e Q ua n tita tiv e o r Q ua litative . T h e k in d o f qu a ntita tive in fo rm atio n th a t is sto red is rate inf orm ation , fo r ex a m ple the k n o w le d ge th a t ``I pu rc h ase g a s 8 sev e ral tim es a w e ek ’ ’ . B o th the rate re trie va l a nd rate an d ad just stra te gie s see m to rely on retriev e d k n o w le d g e o f th is typ e , a nd b o th a re a p plied to re g ula r an d sim ila r ev e nts. H igh re gu lar ity is a p rere q uisite fo r th e a v ailab ility o f rate in fo rm a tio n a n d h ig h sim ila rity d isco u ra ge s ep isod e e n um e ra tion (M e n on , 19 9 3 ). In c o ntra st to stra te g ie s th at u se sto red qu a ntita tive in form atio n, a ge n era l im p res sio n strate g y c o u ld re ly o n sto re d , q u alitativ e c h a ra c terisa tio n s o f fre q u en c y, su ch a s ``I d o it a ll th e tim e ’ ’ . F rom th is p e rsp ec tiv e , th e stra te g y ha s tw o p a rts: a sto red im p ressio n m u st b e re trie v ed an d , o n ce it is retrie v ed , th e im pre ssio n m u st b e c on v erte d in to a n ac tu al n u m b e r. T h is co n v ersio n p roc ess strik es u s a s a p ossib le loc u s fo r th e k ind s o f re spo n se sc ale e ffe cts re p orte d b y S ch w a rz an d h is c ollea g u es (e.g . M e no n , R ag h u bir, & S ch w a rz, 1 9 95 ; S c h w arz & B ien ia s, 1 9 9 0 ; S c h w arz & H ip p ler, 1 98 7 ; S ch w a rz, H ipp le r, D eu tsc h , & S tra c k, 1 9 85 ). B a sic ally, the fin d in g is th at w h e n su rv e y re sp on d en ts a re ask e d to re p o rt fre q u en cy ju d g em en ts u sin g fix e d resp o n se ca teg o ries, the siz e of th o se ca teg o rie s affe c ts the a v era ge e stim a tes. F or e x am ple , m o re pe o ple rep o rt lo w 1 fre q u en c ie s o f telev isio n w atc h in g w h e n th e sc ale ra ng e s fro m ``u p to 2 ho u r’ ’ to 1 1 ``m or e tha n 2 2 ho u rs’ ’ th an w h e n it ra n ge s from ``u p to 2 2 h ou rs’ ’ to ``m or e tha n 1 4 2 ho u rs’ ’ (S c hw a rz & H ipp ler, 1 9 8 7; S ch w arz et a l., 1 9 85 ). O u r v ie w is tha t w ith o ut a p re c ise m e tric to d riv e th e c on v e rsio n o f an im pre ssion to a n um b er, re sp o n de n ts m ay a ssig n ex trem e im p re ssio n s lik e ``rare ly ’ ’ a nd ``all th e tim e ’ ’ to th e ex tre m e c a te g orie s, re ga rd less o f the n u m e ric a l la b e ls fo r tho se c ateg o ries, an d e stim ate s th ey c o n sid e r to b e ty p ic a l to th e m id d le c a te g or y, a ga in , w itho u t re g a rd to th e la be l. T h e fa r rig ht bra n c h in F ig . 3 is title d M e m ory A sse ssm en t. T h e stra teg ies in th is c lass are d istin g uish ed fro m th e o th ers in th a t th e y y ie ld freq u en c ies on th e ba sis of ju d g e m e nts a bo u t m em ory p roc e sses a nd states , rath er tha n c o nte n t, a n d th e se ju dg e m e n ts a re m a d e a t th e tim e o f re sp on d in g. In ad d itio n to th e av a ila b ility h eu ristic (T v e rsk y & K a h n em an , 1 9 73 ), o th e r strate gie s in th is cla ss 7
T h i s i s al s o tru e , o f c o u rs e, f o r a l l s tra te g ie s i n v o l v i n g e n u m e ra tio n , a s in d i v i d u al e p i so d e s a re
d i re ct ly ret rie v e d . 8
R a te re trie v a l co u ld , in p rin c ip le , b e su b d iv id e d in to t h o s e c a s e s in w h ic h t h e re s p o n d e n t re tri e v e s
a ra te th a t is e x p re s s e d in th e s am e u n its a s th e r efe re n c e p e rio d , an d th o s e in w h i ch a ra te is re t rie v ed w h ic h i s a s so c ia te d w it h a u n it t h a t is s m a ll er th a n th e re fe ren c e p e rio d an d is t h e n m u lt ip lie d to e x te n d to th e c o m p le te ti m e fra m e . T h is is s i m i la r to t h e d e c o m p o s itio n s tra t eg ie s (A rm s tro n g , D en n is to n , & G o rd o n , 1 9 7 5 ) t h a t h a v e b e e n o b s e rv ed b y B rad b u rn , R ip s , a n d S h e v e l l (1 9 8 7 ) a n d B la ir a n d B u rt o n (1 9 8 7 ). B ec a u s e t h e s e tw o v a ria n ts o f ra t e re t rie v al re ly o n th e sa m e u n d e rly in g p ro c e ss e s (w it h th e ex c e p t io n o f t h e e x tra p o l a tio n st e p ), a n d a re a p p l ie d u n d e r i d e n ti ca l s im il ar it y , re g u la rit y , a n d fre q u e n c y c o n d it io n s , w e h a v e n o t d is ti n g u i sh e d b e tw e e n th e m i n t h i s t a x o n o m y .
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m ig ht tak e stoc k o f th e fa m iliarity o f e ve n ts (W h ittle sea , 1 9 9 3) an d th e sim ila rity of w h at is rem em b ere d to w h a t is b e in g ask e d a bo u t (H in tz m a n , 1 98 8 ; Jo ne s & H e it, 1 9 9 3 ). W e h a ve n ot d ire ctly o b serv e d m em o ry a ssessm e nt stra teg ies in o u r stu d y, an d , d esp ite co m p e llin g e xp e rim en ta l ev id en c e for th e ir u se, o the r re sea rc he rs in the a re a rep o rt th e sa m e c u riou s ab se n ce of the se strate gie s (e.g . B lair & B u rto n, 1 98 7 ). O n e re aso n fo r th is a bse n ce m ig h t b e th e lim its o f v e rb a l p roto co lsÐ th e p rim ary d a ta fo r ide n tify ing stra te g ie s in o ur stu d y a n d m o st oth e r stud ie s o f b eh a vio ur al fre q ue n c y (B la ir & B u rto n , 1 98 7 ; B u rto n & B la ir, 1 9 9 1; M ea n s & L o ftus, 1 9 9 1; M en o n, 1 9 9 3). A c cu ra te v e rba l re p orts a b ou t a m e n ta l p roc e ss req u ire th a t w o rk in g m e m o ry b e in v olv ed in th e p roc e ss (E ric sso n & S im o n, 1 99 3 ). B e ca u se m em o ry a sse ssm e n t d o es no t inv o lve tran sfe rrin g in fo rm a tio n from lo n g -te rm m em ory into w ork in g m em ory Ð it inv o lv e s jud g e m e n ts a bo u t the sta te o f lon g -term m e m o ry Ð p e op le c an n ot v e rba lly re p o rt a b o ut th e stra teg y (N isb e tt & W ilso n , 1 9 7 7; W ilso n , 19 9 4 ). T his ra ise s th e p o ssib ility tha t so m e o f the u n c od a ble re spo n se s (1 8 % of th e n o n-z e ro resp o n ses) w e re b ase d o n m e m o ry asse ssm e n t. In a dd itio n , so m e o f th e v erb al rep o rts th at w e a ssoc iate w ith g e n e ra l im p re ss io n re sp o n se s c o u ld im p l ic a te m e m o ry as se s sm e n t, alth ou g h w e c an n o t te st th at he re .
CONCLUSIONS P eo p le c an an sw e r qu e stio n s ab o ut th e fre qu e nc y o f the ir be h av io u rs u sin g a v ariety o f stra teg ies b u t th e set o f stra teg ies th a t is u sef ul o n a n y o ne o c ca sio n is lim ite d b y w h at in fo rm atio n is a v aila b le. O u r m u ltiple strate gy pe rsp ec tiv e m ak e s cle ar w h a t stra te g ies ca n no t b e u sed w h e n th e n ec es sary in fo rm a tion is la ck ing . O ne p ra c tica l c o nc e rn ra ised b y th is is th e fac t th at p eo p le a re a b le to p ro vid e n um eric al resp o n ses w h e n th ey lac k nu m erica l in fo rm a tio n Ð th at is, w he n the y k no w v irtu ally n o thin g a b o ut the a ctu al q ua n titie s inv o lve d . O f th e no n -ze ro resp o n ses, 1 8% w ere b ase d o n g e ne ral im p re ssio n s. If o u r p ro p os al ab o u t th e w a y p eo p le pro d u ce th e se e stim a tes is rig ht, the n it d o es n o t b o de w e ll fo r the qu a lity o f th ese estim a te s. B e ca u se p e op le c an m a p th e ir im p re ssio n s to w ha te ve r n um eric al in form a tio n is av a ila b le (su ch as a re sp o nse sc a le ) o r to p roto ty p ica l v alu es (su c h as n u m b e rs d iv isib le by fiv e), it is un lik ely th a t th e ir e stim a te s a re a s ac c ura te a s su rve y spo n so rs a ssum e th ey a re. T h e lo g ic a l ne x t ste p is to stu d y th e ac c ura cy ra n ge s fo r th e strate gie s w e h av e id e n tified in th e c urre n t stu d y. W e ha v e b e g un to a d d re ss th e issu e o f w h at stra teg y is use d w h e n th e info rm a tio n req u ire d fo r sev e ra l stra teg ies is av ailab le . O ur d isc rim in an t a n aly sis p r o v id e s s o m e o f t h e fl a v o u r o f p la u s ib l e d e c is io n r u le s u n d e r t h e s e circ um stan c es. H ow e ve r, w e n ee d an e xp licit m o de l o f h o w resp o n de n ts ac tua lly c ho o se strate g ie s w h e n the y a re a ske d a fre q ue n c y q u estio n. T h is w o uld p ro v ide a m o re c om p le te the o retica l a cc o u n t o f the estim a tio n p roc e ss a n d c ou ld b e v a lu a ble to su rve y pra ctition e rs.
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In co n jun c tio n w ith th es e ad d itio na l re sea rc h ac tiv itie s, ou r fin d in g s c a n h elp su rv ey p rac titio n ers in tw o w a y s. F irst, it m a y b e p o ssib le to d ev e lo p in terv e n tio ns tha t he lp to re d uc e erro r fo r pa rtic ula r stra te gie s. F o r ex a m ple , if re sp o n de n ts are lik ely to en u m e ra te w he n the y an sw e r a p a rticu la r qu e stio n the n th e in terv e n tio n sh o u ld b e de sign e d to h elp th e m re ca ll m ore ep iso d es, in m o re d e ta il (e .g . F ish e r & Q u ig le y , 1 9 9 2 ); if re s p o n d e n ts u s e th e ir g e n e ra l im pre ssio ns, th e inte rv e ntio n m ig ht p ro v ide h elp fu l n u m e ric a l re fe re nc e s (e .g . B ro w n , 1 9 95 ). T h e p artic u la r in te rv en tio n w o u ld b e de term in e d b y th e stra te g y th a t is m o st lik ely g iv e n th e p a tte rns o f p red ictiv e v ariab le s. S e c on d , if it is p o ssible to in fe r w h at stra te g ie s re sp on d e nts ha v e use d , th e surv e y p rac titio n e r c an a d ju st th e pu b lish e d freq u en c y statistic s fo llo w in g th e lo g ic o f sea so n al (e.g . B ell & H illm er, 1 9 84 ) o r q ua lity (A rm k n ec ht & W ey b a ck , 19 8 9 ) ad justm e n t. If on e ca n estab lish th e d irec tio n an d m a g nitud e s o f e rrors fo r pa rtic u lar strate gie s in p a rtic u la r su rv e y d om ain sÐ po ten tially b y p re te stin g a sm a ll su b sam p le for w h om v e rifica tio n d ata a re a v ailab leÐ the n the d ata a n aly st ca n in c rem en t or d e cre m e nt th e rep o rted e stim a tes a c co rd ing ly. T h e g oa l o f brin gin g m em o ry rese a rc h to b e ar o n surv e y s is to im p ro v e d ata qu a lity fo r th e surv e y p rac titio n e r a nd to p ro du c e m ore re alistic th eo ries for th e psy c ho lo g ist. T h e cu rren t stu d y is on e ste p in sa tisfy in g th e se g oa ls. H ow o fte n ha s inte rd isc ip lin ary w ork o f th is k in d a c tua lly fo rg e d n e w kn o w led g e? T ha t all de p en d s o n h o w y ou g o a b o ut a nsw e ring the q ue stio n .
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B u rt o n , S . (1 9 8 7 ). C o g n i tiv e p ro c e s se s u se d b y s u rv e y re s p o n d en ts to a n s w e r
b e h av io ra l fre q u e n cy q u e s tio n s. J o u r n a l o f C o n s u m e r R e s e a r c h , 1 4 , 2 8 0 ±2 8 8 . B o u s fie ld , W .A ., S e d g e w ic k , C .H .W ., & C o h e n , B .H . (1 9 5 4 ). C e rta in te m p o ra l c h a ra c te ris t ics o f t h e re c a ll o f v e rb a l a s s o ci a te s . A m e r ic a n J o u r n a l o f P s y c h o lo g y , 6 7 , 1 1 1 ±1 1 8 .
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B ra d b u rn , N .M ., R i p s , L .J ., & S h e v e l l, S .K . (1 9 8 7 ). A n s w e rin g a u to b i o g ra p h ic al q u e s ti o n s : T h e im p ac t o f m e m o ry a n d in fe re n c e o n s u rv e y s. S c ie n c e, 2 3 6 , 1 5 7 ±1 6 1 . B re w e r, W .F . (1 9 8 8 ). M e m o ry fo r ra n d o m ly s a m p l ed a u t o b io g rap h ic a l ev e n t s . In U . N ei s se r & E . W i n o g ra d (E d s .), R e m e m b e r in g r e c o n s id e re d (p p .2 1 ±9 0 ). N e w Y o rk : C am b rid g e U n i v e rs it y P re s s . B ro w n , N .R . (1 9 9 5 ). E s tim a tio n st ra te g ie s a n d t h e ju d g m e n t o f e v e n t f re q u e n c y . Jo u rn a l o f E x p er i m e n ta l P s y c h o lo g y : L e a rn in g , M e m o ry a n d C o g n it io n , 2 1 , 1 5 3 9 ±1 5 5 3 . B ru c e, D ., H o c k le y , W .E ., & C ra ik , F .I.M . (1 9 9 1 ). A v a ila b ility a n d c a te g o ry -fre q u e n c y in fo rm a tio n . M e m o r y & C o g n it io n , 1 9 , 3 0 1 ±3 1 2 . B ru c e, D ., & R e a d , J .D . (1 9 8 8 ). T h e h o w a n d w h y o f m e m o ry fo r fre q u e n c y . In M .M . G ru n e b e rg , P .E . M o rris , & R .N . S y k e s ( E d s.), P r a c ti c a l a sp e c ts o f m e m o r y : C u r r e n t r e s e a r c h a n d i ss u e s , V o l . 1 , M e m o ry in e v er y d a y li fe (p p .3 1 7 ±3 2 2 ). N ew Y o rk : Jo h n W i le y & S o n s . B ru c e, D ., & V a n P e lt , M . (1 9 8 9 ). M e m o ri e s o f a b i c y c le t o u r. A p p l ie d co g n i tiv e P s y c h o lo g y, 3 , 1 3 7 ±1 5 6 . B u rto n , S ., & B l a ir, E . (1 9 9 1 ). T as k c o n d it io n s , re s p o n s e fo rm u la ti o n p ro ce s s e s , a n d re s p o n s e a cc u ra c y fo r b e h a v i o ra l fre q u e n c y q u e s ti o n s i n s u rv e y s . P u b l ic O p in io n Q u a rt e rly , 5 5 , 5 0 ±7 9 . E ri c ss o n , K .A ., & S im o n , H .A . (1 9 9 3 ). P r o to c o l a n a ly s is : V e r b a l r e p o r ts a s d a t a , R e v is e d E d itio n . C a m b ri d g e , M A : M IT P re s s . F i sh e r, R .P ., & Q u i g l ey , K .L . (1 9 9 2 ) . A p p l y i n g c o g n it iv e th e o ry in p u b l ic h e a lt h in v e s t ig a t io n s: E n h a n c in g fo o d re c al l w i th t h e co g n i tiv e in te rv ie w . I n J.M . T a n u r (E d .), Q u es t io n s a b o u t q u e s tio n s : In q u ir ie s i n t o th e c o g n it iv e b a si s o f s u r v e y s (p p .1 5 4 ±1 7 2 ). N e w Y o rk : R u ss e ll S a g e F o u n d a t io n . H in tz m a n , D .L . (1 9 7 6 ). R e p e titio n an d m e m o r y . In G .H . B o w e r ( E d .), T h e p sy c h o l o g y o f l e a r n in g a n d m o ti va ti o n ( V o l. 1 0 , p p .4 7 ±9 1 ). N ew Y o rk : A c a d e m ic P re s s. H in tz m a n , D .L . (1 9 8 8 ). J u d g m en ts o f fre q u en c y a n d re c o g n itio n m e m o ry i n a m u l tip le -t ra ce m e m o ry m o d e l . P s y c h o lo g ic a l R e v ie w , 9 5 , 5 2 8 ±5 5 1 . H o w e ll , W .C . ( 1 9 7 3 ). R e p re s en ta t io n o f fre q u e n c y i n m e m o ry . P s y ch o lo g i ca l B u ll et in , 8 0 , 4 4 - 5 3 . H u b b ard , M . ( 1 9 9 2 ). L a b o ra to ry ex p e rim e n t s t e st in g n e w q u e s ti o n in g t ec h n iq u es . In C .F . T u rn e r, J.T . L e s s le r, & J.C . G fro e re r (E d s .), S u r ve y m e a su r e m en t o f d r u g u s e : M e th o d o lo g i c a l s tu d ie s (p p .5 3 ±8 4 ). W a sh in g to n , D C : U S G o v e rn m e n t P rin ti n g O ffi c e. H u t te n l o c h e r, J ., H e d g e s , L ., & B ra d b u rn , N . (1 9 9 0 ). R e p o rts o f e la p se d ti m e : B o u n d i n g a n d ro u n d i n g p ro ce s s e s in e s ti m a tio n . J o u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n ta l P s y ch o lo g y , 1 6 , 1 9 6 ±2 1 3 . J o h n s o n , M .K ., R a y e , C .L ., W a n g , A .Y ., & T a y l o r, T .H . ( 1 9 7 9 ). F a c t a n d fa n ta s y : T h e ro l e o f a cc u ra c y a n d v a ria b ility i n c o n fu s in g i m a g in a ti o n s w i th p e rc e p t u a l e x p e ri e n c es . J o u r n a l o f E x p er i m e n ta l P s y c h o lo g y : H u m a n L e a r n in g a n d M e m o ry , 5 , 2 2 0 ±2 4 0 . J o n e s , C .M ., & H ei t, E . (1 9 9 3 ). A n e v a lu a tio n o f th e t o t a l s im i la rit y p ri n c i p l e: E f fec t s o f s im i la rity o n fre q u e n c y ju d g m e n t. J o u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n ta l P s y c h o lo g y : L e a r n in g , M e m o r y a n d C o g n itio n , 1 9 , 7 9 9 ±8 1 2 . J o n id e s, J ., & J o n e s , C .M . (1 9 9 2 ). D ire c t c o d in g fo r fre q u e n c y o c c u rre n ce . J o u r n a l o f E x p e ri m en ta l P s y c h o lo g y : L e a r n i n g , M e m o r y a n d C o g n it io n , 1 8 , 3 6 8 ±3 7 8 . J o n id e s, J ., &
N a v e h - B en ja m in , M . (1 9 8 7 ). E s tim a ti n g fre q u e n c y o f o cc u rre n c e . J o u r n a l o f
E x p er i m e n ta l P s y c h o lo g y : L e a rn in g , M e m o ry a n d C o g n it io n , 1 3 , 2 3 0 ±2 4 0 . L i n t o n , M . (1 9 8 2 ). T ra n s fo rm a ti o n s o f m e m o ry i n e v e ry d a y l ife . In U . N e is s e r (E d .), M e m o r y o b s e rv e d : R e m e m b e r in g i n n a t u r a l c o n te x t (p p .7 7 ±9 1 ). S a n F ra n c is c o : W .H . F re e m an . M e a n s, B ., & L o ftu s , E . (1 9 9 1 ). W h e n p e rs o n a l h is t o ry re p e a ts i ts e lf. D e c o m p o s in g m e m o ri es fo r re c u rri n g e v e n t s . A p p l ie d C o g n it iv e P s y c h o lo g y , 5 , 2 9 7 ±3 1 8 . M e n o n , G . (1 9 9 3 ). T h e e ffe c ts o f a c ce s s ib ility o f i n fo rm a ti o n in m e m o ry o n ju d g m e n ts o f b e h a v i o ra l fre q u e n c ies . Jo u rn a l o f C o n s u m e r R e s e a rc h , 2 0 , 4 3 1 ±4 4 0 . M e n o n , G ., R a g h u b ir, P ., & S ch w a rz , N . (1 9 9 5 ). A n a cc e s s ib ility ±d i a g n o s t ic ity fra m e w o rk fo r b e h a v i o ra l fre q u en c y ju d g m e n ts : T h e u s e o f re s p o n s e a lt ern a ti v e s v e rs u s ra te o f o c c u rre n c e a s so u rc e s o f in fo rm a t io n . J o u r n a l o f C o n s u m e r R e s ea r c h , 2 2 , 2 1 2 ±2 2 8 .
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N ei s se r, U . (1 9 8 1 ). J o h n D ea n ’ s m em o ry : A c a s e s tu d y . C o g n it io n , 9 , 1 ±2 2 . N e i s s e r , U . ( 1 9 8 6 ). N e s t e d
stru ctu re
in
a u t o b i o g ra p h i c a l m e m o r y . I n
D .C . R u b i n
( E d .),
A u t o b io g ra p h ic a l m e m o r y (p p .7 1 ±8 1 ). N e w Y o rk : C a m b rid g e U n i v e rsi ty P re s s . N is b e tt , R ., & W il s o n , T . (1 9 7 7 ). T e l lin g m o re th a n w e c a n k n o w : V e rb a l re p o rt s o n m e n t a l p ro c e ss e s . P s y c h o lo g i c a l R e v ie w , 8 4 , 2 3 1 ±2 5 9 . S c h o o le r, J .W ., O h l s so n , S ., & B ro o k s, K . ( 1 9 9 3 ). T h o u g h ts b e y o n d w o rd s : W h e n la n g u a g e o v e rsh a d o w s i n s i g h t. J o u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n ta l P s y ch o lo g y : G en e r a l, 1 2 2 , 1 6 6 ±1 8 3 . S c h w a rz , N ., & B ie n ia s , J . (1 9 9 0 ). W h a t m e d ia te s th e im p a c t o f re s p o n s e a l te rn at iv e s o n fre q u e n cy r ep o rts o f m u n d a n e b e h a v io rs ? A p p lie d C o g n itive P s y c h o l o g y, 4 , 6 1 ±7 2 . S c h w a rz , N ., & H i p p le r, H . (1 9 8 7 ). W h a t re s p o n se s c al e s m a y te ll y o u r re s p o n d e n ts: In fo rm a tiv e f u n c tio n s o f re s p o n se a lt er n a tiv e s. In H . H ip p l er , N . S c h w ar z, & S . S u d m an (E d s .), S o c ia l i n f o r m a tio n p r o c e s s in g a n d s u r ve y m e th o d o lo g y (p p .1 6 3 ±1 7 8 ). N e w Y o rk : S p ri n g e r-V erla g . S c h w a rz , N ., H i p p le r, H ., D e u ts c h , B ., & S t ra c k , F . (1 9 8 5 ). R e s p o n se c a te g o rie s : E ffe c t s o n b e h av io ra l re p o rts a n d c o m p a ra ti v e ju d g m e n t s. P u b li c O p in io n Q u a r te r ly , 4 9 , 3 8 8 ±3 9 5 . S tru b e, G . ( 1 9 8 7 ). A n s w e rin g s u rv e y q u e s tio n s : T h e r o le o f m e m o ry . In H . H ip p le r, N . S c h w a rz , & S . S u d m a n (E d s .), S o c i a l in fo r m a t io n p r o c e s s in g a n d s u r v e y m e th o d o lo g y (p p .8 6 ±1 0 1 ). N e w Y o rk : S p rin g e r-V e rla g . S u d m a n , S ., & B ra d b u r n , N . (1 9 7 4 ). R e sp o n s e e f fe c ts in su r v e ys . S a n F ran c is c o : J o s se y -B a s s. T v e rsk y , A ., &
K a h n e m a n , D . (1 9 7 3 ). A v a i la b i lity : A
h e u ri s tic fo r j u d g in g fre q u e n c y a n d
p ro b a b il ity . C o g n itiv e P sy c h o l o g y, 4 , 2 0 7 ±2 3 2 . V o s s , J .F ., V e re b , C ., & B is a n z , G . (1 9 7 5 ). S ti m u l u s fre q u e n c y ju d g m e n ts an d l at e n c y o f s ti m u l u s f req u e n c y ju d g m e n ts as a fu n c t io n o f c o n s ta n t an d v a ri a b l e re sp o n s e c o n d itio n s . J o u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n ta l P s y c h o lo g y : L e a r n in g , M e m o r y a n d C o g n itio n , 3 , 3 3 7 ±3 5 0 . W a g en a a r, W . ( 1 9 8 6 ). M y m e m o ry : A st u d y o f a u t o b io g rap h i ca l m e m o ry o v e r s i x y e a rs . C o g n i tiv e P s y ch o lo g y , 2 4 , 6 6 6 ±6 7 8 . W h ittle s e a , B .W .A . (1 9 9 3 ). Ill u s i o n s o f fa m il ia rity . J o u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n ta l P s y c h o l o g y: L e a r n i n g , M e m o ry a n d C o g n itio n , 1 9 , 1 2 3 5 ±1 2 5 3 . W il s o n , T .D . (1 9 9 4 ) . T h e
proper
p ro t o c o l : V a l i d i t y
and
c o m p l e t e n e s s o f v e rb a l re p o rt s .
P s y ch o lo g i ca l S c i e n c e , 5 , 2 4 9 ±2 5 2 . W ri g h t, D .B ., G a sk e ll, G .D ., & O ’ M u irc h e a rt ai g h , C .A . (1 9 9 4 ). H o w m u c h is `Q u ite a b i t’ ? M a p p in g b e tw e e n n u m e ric a l v a lu es a n d v ag u e q u a n ti fie rs . A p p li e d C o g n it iv e P s y ch o lo g y, 8 , 4 7 9 ±4 9 5 .
M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 3 6 7 ±3 8 1
C h a n g e s in th e S u b je c tiv e P r o p e r tie s o f A u to b io g r a p h ic a l M e m o r ie s w ith th e P a s sa g e o f T im e W illia m J. F rie d m a n a n d P a tric ia A . d e W in sta n le y O b e rlin C olle ge , O h io, U SA
T his st u d y w a s a n in v e st ig a tio n of h o w th e su b je c tiv e pr o pe rtie s o f au tob io g ra p hic al m e m or ie s c ha n g e o v e r tim e. O v e r th e 25 w e e ks a fte r T ha n k s giv in g , u n de rg r ad u ate s ra te d th e qu a lity o f th e ir m e m o ries fo r T h an k sg iv ing d in ne r o n th re e g lo ba l sc ale s an d si x o th e r sc a le s r ef er rin g to sp e cific k ind s o f in fo r m a tio n (c o nv e rs atio n s, pe o ple , fo od , a n d clo th in g ). G lo b a l ra tin g s d ec lin ed r ap idly in th e f irst 12 w ee k s b u t sh o w ed little c h a n g e in th e su b se q ue n t 1 2 w e e k s. T h e hig h e st ra tin gs an d th e le a st d e c line w er e f ou n d f o r in fo r m a tion th a t c o u ld b e re c on st ru c te d fr om g e ne r al kn o w le d g e o f T ha n k s giv in g s ( fo o d a n d p eo p le p re se n t). R a tin gs fo r n on -s c he m a tic in f or m a tion sh ow e d p atte rn s o f d e c lin e co n si ste n t w ith p re v io u s s tu die s a n d w ith h um an s’ a bility to d is c rim in a te th e te m p o ra l d ist an c e s o f p as t ev e n ts.
INTRODUCTION P sy ch o log ists h av e lo ng kn o w n th at th e ac cu ra c y of m e m o ries b ec om es p oo re r w ith th e pa ssa g e of tim e . L a bo ra tory re se arc h ha s re p ea ted ly d em o nstra te d forg e ttin g ov e r inte rv a ls ran g in g fro m m inu te s to d a ys (e.g . R ub in & W e nz e l, 1 99 6 ; W ix ted & E b b ese n , 1 9 9 1), an d stu die s o f au to bio g rap h ic a l m e m o ry (e.g . L in to n , 19 7 5 ; R u bin & W en z el, 1 9 96 ; W a g e na aa r, 1 9 86 ) sh o w d e clin es in ac c ura cy o v e r m o n th s a n d y e ars. T h e re is a lso e v id e nc e th a t fo rg e tting b y su rv e y resp o n d en ts sh o w s sim ila r e ffe cts of the p assa g e o f tim e (S ud m an & B rad b u rn, 1 97 3 ). B u t fa r le ss is k n o w n a bo u t c h an g e s in the sub jec tiv e c h ar ac te ristic s o f m e m o ries, suc h as the ir p e rce ive d viv id n e ss o r c om p le te n e ss. T h e pre sen t stu d y is d e sign e d to ad d to o ur k n o w le d ge o f h o w ju d g em en ts o f th e q u ality o f au to bio g rap h ic a l m e m orie s c ha n g e w ith th e pa ssa g e of tim e in th e w e ek s an d m o n th s a fte r ev e n ts o c cu r. Info rm a tio n ab o ut ch a ng e s in th e su b jec tiv e q u ality of m e m o ries w ith th e p assa g e of tim e is im po rtan t fo r su rve y re sea rc he rs, b e ca u se resp o n de n ts
R e q u e s ts fo r re p ri n t s sh o u l d b e se n t to W illia m J . F ri e d m a n , D e p art m e n t o f P s y c h o lo g y , O b e rlin C o lle g e , O b e rli n , O h io 4 4 0 7 4 , U S A . W e w o u ld li k e t o th a n k P a m e la T o n g , E m i ly P e c k h a m , a n d Ju li a n n a K a n g fo r t h e ir a ss i st a n c e in c o l le c tin g t h e d a ta , J u d i B e i n s te i n M i lle r fo r s ta ti st ic a l a d v ic e , a n d G o rd o n W il lis fo r h is c o m m e n ts o n a n ea rl ie r v e rs io n o f th is p a p e r.
Ó
1 9 9 8 P s y ch o lo g y P re s s L td
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pro b a bly en g ag e in m e tac o gn itiv e p ro ce sse s to d ec id e w h e the r th e ir m e m o rie s m e e t so m e criterion o f co n fid e n ce (W illis, R oy sto n , & B erc ini, 1 9 9 1). M em ories ju d g ed to b e v iv id or c om p le te a re m o re lik e ly to be rep o rted th a n th o se in w hic h re sp o n de n ts h a v e little co n fid e n ce . T he m o re re sea rc h ers k no w ab o u t th e tim e co u rse o f th e su b jec tiv e q u a lity o f m e m o ries, th e b e tte r th ey c an de c ide w h a t re ten tio n in te rv als a re to le rab le in the ir surv e y s an d the m o re ac cu ra tely the y ca n m o d el th e c on trib u tio n o f lo w c on fid en c e to o m issio n s a t d iffe ren t re te n tio n in terv a ls. A n o the r k ind o f info rm a tio n freq u e ntly req u ire d in su rv ey s is w h en e ve n ts oc c urre d . L o ftu s an d M a rbu rg e r (19 8 3 ) n ote th at he alth a n d c rim e surv e ys o fte n re q u ire re sp on d en ts to ju dg e w h eth er an e ve n t o cc u rre d d u rin g so m e b o u nd e d te m p o ra l inte rv al (e .g . ``D u rin g the p ast 6 m on th s, d id a ny o n e try to ro b y ou b y usin g fo rc e o r th rea ten ing to h a rm yo u ? ’ ’ [L o ftus & M a rb urg e r, 19 8 3 , p .1 1 5 ]). T h u s im p ro v em en ts in o u r u n de rstan d in g o f h ow pe o ple ju dg e the tim e s o f pa st ev e nts c a n c on tribu te to o ur k n o w le d g e o f h ow th ey resp o n d to su rv ey q ue stio ns. In th e pre se n t stu d y, w e ho p ed to a dd re ss a q ue stio n th at is u n an sw ere d in th e litera ture on m em o ry fo r tim e: w he th er c ha n ge s o v er tim e in the q u ality o f m e m o ries c ou ld p ro vid e in form ation th a t a llo w s p e o ple to ju d ge h ow lo n g a g o som e ev e nt o cc u rre d , in c irc um stan c es in w hic h th ey la ck a de q ua te in fo rm a tio n ab o ut w he n in tim e it o cc u rred . R e ce nt fin d in g s sh ow tha t in situ atio ns in w hic h sub je cts a re u n ab le to lo c alise ev e nts in tim e , d iffe ren tiated an d p a rtially v e rid ica l ju d g em en ts o f distan c es in the p ast c an still be m a d e fo r e ve n ts fro m th e pa st sev e ral m o n ths, bu t th a t te m p o ral d iffe ren tia tion is po o r be y on d a b ou t tw o to fo u r m o n th s (F ried m an , 1 9 9 6). If a sim ilar fu nc tion is fo u n d fo r th e su b jec tiv e q u a lity of m em orie s, this m ig h t b e th e in fo rm atio n th at su bje cts u se to m a ke distan c e ju d g em en ts, as som e th e o rie s o f m e m o ry fo r tim e im ply (F ried m a n , 1 9 9 3). In ad d itio n , to the ex ten t tha t im pre ssio n s o f d ista n c e co n trib u te to ``forw a rd te lesc o p in g ’ ’ (B ra d b u rn , R ip s, & S h ev e ll, 1 98 7 )Ð th e te nd e nc y to u n d ere stim ate th e a g es o f m or e d ista n t ev e n ts an d im p o rt to o -d ista n t ev e nts in to te m p o rally bo u n d ed in terv a ls (see Frie dm a n, 1 9 9 3)Ð tim e c ha n g es in th e qu a lity o f m e m o ries m ay b e re le v an t to u n d erstan d in g th at ph e n om e no n as w e ll. A nu m b er o f a u th o rs h a v e sug g es te d w a ys in w hic h au to b io g rap h ica l m e m o ries se e m to ch a n ge w ith th e pa ssa g e o f tim e . F o r ex a m ple , C on w a y (1 9 9 0) p ro po s ed th a t m o st m em or ie s rem ain viv id fo r so m e p e rio d of tim e b u t lo se th is q ua lity w h e n sim ila r, la te r e v en ts o cc u r. A re late d v ie w is B rew e r’ s (1 9 8 6, 19 9 6 ) su g ge stion th a t a uto b io g ra ph ica l m em or ie s re m ain rea so n ab ly ac cu ra te co p ies o f e ve n ts fo r so m e pe riod o f tim e a fte r th ey oc cu r, b u t w ith th e pa ssa g e o f tim e , sc he m a -b ase d p ro c e sses b e co m e m o re im p o rtan t in re m e m be rin g ev e nts. S im ilarly , T ho m p son , S k o w r on sk i, L a rsen , a n d B e tz (19 9 6 , p .8 ) a rg u e th a t ``m em o r y f o r e v e n ts c h a n g e s o v e r tim e fro m b e in g la rg e ly re p ro du c tiv e to b ein g la rg e ly re co n struc tiv e .’ ’ A m o ng the few fin d ing s rele va n t to c h an g e s o v e r tim e in th e q u ality o f au to bio g ra p h ica l m em o rie s are resu lts fro m T h o m p son ’ s (1 9 82 ) stud y o f
CHANGES IN PROPERTIES OF MEMORIES
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m e m o ry fo r p erso n al e v en ts (a nd see T ho m p son e t a l., 1 9 9 6, fo r a sum m ary o f su bse q u en t stu d ie s). T h o m p so n a sk ed co lle g e stud e n ts to rec o rd e ve n ts in th eir o w n a n d th eir ro o m m a te s’ liv e s ov e r a 14 -w e ek p e rio d . E a c h d a y fro m M o nd a y thro u gh T h u rsd ay a n u n usu a l ev e n tÐ o n e th a t w ou ld n o t b e ex p ec ted to h a p pe n m o re th an o nc e p e r se m e sterÐ w as re co rde d fo r o ne ’ s se lf a n d o n e’ s ro om m a te. A t th e en d o f th e re co rd in g p e rio d , su b jec ts an d the ir ro o m m a te s w ere p rese nte d w ith the ev e n ts a n d a sk ed to ra te h o w w ell th e y re m e m b e re d th em o n a 1 ±7 sc ale (1 = ba re ly at a ll, 7 = p erfec tly ). T h e re sults (re plo tte d in F ig . 1 in th e resu lts sec tio n ) sh o w ed an e x po n e n tial de c lin e in m e m o ry ra tin gs, w ith a rap id d ec lin e o ve r the first tw o to fo u r w ee k s an d a m ore g ra d u al d ec lin e th e rea fte r. T h e sa m e p attern em erg e d in the late r stu d ie s u sin g this m eth od (T ho m pso n e t a l., 1 9 9 6). T h e p rese n t stud y w a s in te n d ed to p ro v id e sim ilar in fo rm a tio n a b ou t h o w su bje ctiv e pro p e rties o f m e m o rie s c ha n ge w ith th e p assa ge of tim e. W e also attem p ted to a dd to T h om p so n’ s (1 9 8 2 ; T h o m p so n e t al., 1 9 96 ) fin d in g s in sev e ral w a ys. F irst, w e teste d m o re d iffere ntia te d in fo rm a tio n ab o u t th e qu a lity o f m em o rie s. In stea d of a sin g le , g lob a l ra tin g , w e a sk ed fo r 1 2 d iffe ren t jud g em e nts. T hre e w ere o v e ra ll rating s, a d ap te d fro m Jo h nso n , F o ley , S ue n g as, an d R ay e ’ s (1 9 88 ) stu d y o f re a l a n d im ag in ed ev e n ts. C o rrela tio n s be tw ee n th e thre e m ea su re s allow us to asse ss th e re lia b ility of g lob a l m e m o ry rating s. W e also in clu de d q ue stio n s a b ou t the q u ality o f m em or ie s for se v er al spe c ific asp e cts o f th e rem em b ere d ev e nt, su c h as p e op le , c on v ersa tio n s, a n d c lo th in g. T h e se d ata c a n tell u s w he the r th ere is a sing le tim e p a tte rn o r d iffere nt pa tte rn s for d iffe ren t k in ds o f in fo rm atio n . F urth erm ore , so m e of the asp e cts w ere am en a b le to rec o n stru c tio n , an d oth e rs w e re n ot. C o m p a riso n o f sch e m a -rela te d an d oth er m e m o ries c an she d lig ht on th e c o ntrib utio n o f re co n struc tiv e p ro c esse s to th e q u ality o f m em o rie s. T his issue co u ld o n ly b e e x am in e d ind irec tly in T h o m p so n ’ s stu d ies (b y u sin g g lo b a l ra tin g s of 6 o r 7 to e stim ate m e m o ry fo r d eta il, a n d th e a c cu rac y o f m e m o ry for p eo p le a n d lo ca tio n to estim a te th e c on tribu tion o f re c on stru ction ). S ec o nd , w e in clu d ed rete ntio n in te rv als of u p to a b o ut 1 0 w e ek s lo n g er tha n tho se in T h o m p so n ’ s (1 9 8 2) stu d y . T h is is sig n ific an t for un d ersta n din g th e fun c tio n re lating rating s o f th e q ua lity of m e m o ries to e la p se d tim e , b e ca u se it is n o t c le a r fr o m T h o m p so n ’ s f in d in g s w h e th e r ra t in g s h a v e a p p ro a c h e d asy m pto tic le ve ls a t h is lo ng e st reten tio n in te rv al, ab o u t 1 4 w e ek s. T h o m p so n et a l. (1 9 9 6 ) d id re p ort m e m o ry ratin gs fro m six su b je c ts for lo n g er in terv a ls, ran g in g u p to 90 0 d ay s. B u t th e a u tho rs no te th a t th e sh a pe o f th e fu n ction c ou ld h av e be en in flu en c ed b y th e ra n ge o f a g es o f ev e nts, b e ca u se su b jec ts m ig h t h av e co m pa red th e q u a lity of m em or ie s o f th e ran g e o f a ge s sa m p le d. In o u r stud y , few su bje cts w e re tested are m o re th a n o n e tim e, so re lativ istic use of th e sca le w a s un lik ely . T h ird , w e u se d a targ e t e v en t tha t is esp e cia lly distin ctiv e ; T h a nk sg ivin g d in n er. A lth o u g h T h o m p so n a nd co lle a g ue s re qu ire d th e ir sub je cts to re po rt u nu su a l ev en ts, the re qu ire m e nt fo r se ve ral ev e nts p e r w ee k m ad e it like ly tha t
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m a n y o f th e ev e n ts tha t su bje cts se lec ted w e re relate d to la te r e v en ts th at m ig h t ha v e in terfe red w ith th e targ et e v en ts. F e w e ve n ts rese m b le T h an k sg ivin g din n er, so o ne w ou ld e x p ec t le ss in terfere n ce b y su b seq u en t ex p e rie n ce s. In ad d itio n , be c au se surv e ys o ften sam p le a m ix o f e v en ts ran g in g fro m th e m u n d an e (e.g . filling pre scrip tio n s) to th e h ig h ly salien t (e .g . h o sp ita l sta y s), it is use fu l to see w he th er a fu n ction sim ilar to T h om p so n’ s is fou n d fo r a n e v en t m o re im p o rta n t to re spo n d en ts th a n m o st o f th o se re p o rte d b y h is su b jec ts.
METHOD Subjects and Procedure P articip an ts w er e u n d erg ra du a te s a t a lib e ral a rts co lle g e in th e U nite d S ta te s. O v e r a p e rio d o f n e arly six m o n th s, stu d e nts w ere a pp ro ac h ed in d in in g h alls a n d in th e sn a ck b ar an d a sk ed to fill o u t a b rie f m em o ry su rv e y . A to ta l o f 5 2 8 surv e y s w ere co m p le ted . O n 5 3 o f th e fo rm s, resp o n de n ts in d ica te d h av in g pa rtic ip ated in th e stud y b efo re. O n 3 6 of the fo rm s, resp o n d en ts fa ile d to an sw e r th e qu e stio n ab o u t fo rm e r pa rtic ip a tio n . D a ta w e re co lle c ted a t 1 7 tim e s in th e 2 5 w ee ks fo llo w in g T h a n ksg iv in g (2 3 N o v e m b e r, 1 9 9 5 ), w ith th e e x ce p tio n o f th e in terv a l o f w in te r b rea k . T e stin g w a s a t a p pro x im ate ly w e e kly in terv a ls fo r a b o ut the first tw o m on ths a n d biw ee k ly in te rv als the rea fter. T h e m ea n nu m b e r of d ay s a fte r T h an k sg ivin g (ra n g es in p a re n th e se s) for th e 17 tim e s w e re : 5 (5 ), 7 (7), 1 4.8 7(1 4 ±15 ), 20 .0 2 (1 9 ±21 ), 47 .9 7 (4 7 ±4 8 ), 69 .2 8 (6 0 ±7 1 ), 7 7 .3 6 (7 6±7 8 ), 8 3 (8 3), 8 9.7 7 (8 7 ± 9 1 ), 9 8 . 7 3 (9 7 ±1 0 0 ),1 0 4 .6 5 (1 0 1 ±1 0 5 ) , 1 1 1 .8 6 (1 1 1 ±1 1 2 ), 1 1 7 .0 0 (1 1 5 ±1 1 8 ), 13 2 .0 3 (1 3 2±1 3 3), 14 5 (14 5 ), 1 5 9(1 5 9 ), an d 1 75 (1 7 5). T h e n u m b e rs o f fo rm s co m ple te d at th e 1 7 te stin g tim e s w ere : 3 0 , 4 3, 5 2 , 5 9 , 3 0, 3 9 , 2 8 , 25 , 26 , 1 5 , 20 , 29 , 28 , 3 0 , 2 8 , 2 4 , a nd 2 2.
Survey Instrument T h e m a in d ata c om e fro m a T h a nk sg iv in g m em o ry su rv ey . A ll su b je c ts tes te d after 7 F e b rua ry , 1 9 96 , also c o m p le ted a sim ilar fo rm pe rta in in g to ``a d inn e r [a tte n d ed ] o v er W in ter b re a k . . . [or] w in te r e v en t’ ’ , an d w ere ask e d to in dic ate th e ty pe a n d d ate o f the e v en t. T h e o rde r o f th e tw o fo rm s w as co u nte rb a lan c ed . O n th e T h an k sg iv in g m e m o ry surv e y, resp o n d en ts w ere a ske d the ir na m e , th e da te , an d w he the r the y h a d pa rtic ipa ted in th e stu dy b efo re . T h e y th en m ad e ch e ck m a rk s ind ica ting the ir re sp o nse s to th e 13 q u estio n s liste d in T ab le 1 . A ll bu t qu e stio n 13 h ad b elo w th em pla ce s for the resp o n ses : 1 , 2, 3, 4 , 5 , 6 , o r 7 . Q u e stio n s 1±3 a n d 10 ±1 2 w e re a d ap te d fro m Jo hn so n e t a l.’ s (1 98 8 ) M e m o ry C h a rac teristic s Q u e stio n na ire. T h e first th ree are g lo ba l ra tin g s o f m em o ry fo r th e e v en t. Q u estion s 1 1 a n d 1 2 a llo w us to a dd re ss p o ssib le re h e arsa l e ffe cts. Q u e stio n 1 0 (c o nc e rn in g ad eq u a cy o f th e m e m o ry ) w a s n ot in clu de d in o u r an a lyse s, b ec au se pa rtic ip a nts rep o rted th at o ur ve rsio n of the q u estio n w a s
CHANGES IN PROPERTIES OF MEMORIES
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TABLE 1 The Survey Instrument P l e a s e R a t e Y o u r M e m o ry o f T h a n k s g i v in g D in n e r 1 . M y o v e ra ll m e m o ry fo r th e d i n n e r i s ``1 ’ ’ d im to ``7 ’ ’ s h a r p . 2 . T h e o v e ra ll v iv id n e s s o f m y m e m o ry i s `` 1 ’ ’ v a g u e to ``7 ’ ’ v e r y vi v id . 3 . M y m em o ry fo r th e d in n e r is ``1 ’ ’ s k et c h y to ``7 ’ ’ v er y d et a i le d . 4 . H o w w el l d o y o u re m e m b er th e c o n v e rs a tio n s th at y o u h ad o v e r t h e c o u rs e o f th e e v en in g ``1 ’ ’ n o t a t a ll t o ``7 ’ ’ v e r y w el l. 5 . F o r h o w m a n y o f y o u r c o n v e rs a tio n s d o y o u re m e m b e r a t le a s t s o m e d et a ils ``1 ’ ’ n o n e to ``7 ’ ’ a l m o s t a ll. 6 . R a te y o u r m em o ry f o r w h o w a s p re s e n t ` `1 ’ ’ v a g u e to ``7 ’ ’ v e r y c le a r . 7 . H o w w e l l d o y o u re m e m b e r w h a t y o u w e re w e a rin g fro m ``1 ’ ’ I h a v e n o m e m o ry o f w h a t I w a s w e a r in g t o ``7 ’ ’ I k n o w e x a c tly w h a t I w a s w e a r in g ? 8 . H o w m u c h d o y o u re m e m b e r ab o u t w h at o th e r p e o p le w e re w e a rin g ? ``1 ’ ’ v e r y l ittle to ``7 ’ ’ I c a n r em e m b e r w h a t m o s t p e o p le w e r e w ea r in g . 9 . M y m em o ry fo r th e fo o d th a t w a s s e rv ed is ``1 ’ ’ s k et c h y to ``7 ’ ’ v er y v iv id . 1 0 . D o y o u h av e a n y d o u b ts a b o u t th e a d e q u a c y o f y o u r m e m o ry fro m ``1 ’ ’ a g re a t d e a l o f d o u b t to ``7 ’ ’ n o d o u b t w h a ts o e v e r. 1 1 . S in c e th e d in n e r (a n d o t h e r t h a n n o w ), h o w m a n y t im e s h a v e y o u th o u g h t a b o u t th e e v e n t fr o m ``1 ’ ’ n e v e r to `` 7 ’ ’ m a n y ti m e s . 1 2 . S in c e th e d in n e r (a n d o th e r th a n n o w ), h o w m a n y t im e s h a v e y o u ta l k e d ab o u t t h e e v en t fro m ``1 ’ ’ n e v e r to `` 7 ’ ’ m a n y ti m e s . 1 3 . D id y o u h a v e T h a n k s g iv in g d in n e r w ith fa m i ly _ _ _ _ in O b e rl in _ _ _ _ O th e r _ _ _ _ .
am b ig u o u s. In the rem a in in g qu e stio n s ca llin g for n u m erica l rating s, p artic ip an ts jud g ed h ow w ell th ey rem em be re d sp ec ific asp ec ts o f th e T h an k sgiv in g d in n e r, inc lud in g c o nv e rsa tio ns, p eo p le , fo o d, an d c lo thin g .
RESULTS Thanksgiving Survey T ota l-m e m o ry R a tin g s. T h e m e an of th e n in e item s re q uiring ra tin g s of th e q ua lity o f m e m o ries (Q u e stio n s 1 ±9 ) w a s u sed a s a first ind e x of to tal-m e m o ry p erfo rm a n ce . T h ese n in e ite m s ha d a C ro n ba c h ’ s a lp h a re lia b ility o f 0 .9 0 . F igu re 1 sho w s th e to ta l-m e m o ry ra tin g s p lo tte d a s a fu n ction o f the n um b er o f w ee k s afte r T h a nk sg ivin g tha t the su rve y w a s c om p le tee d . T ota l rating s ap p ea red to d ec lin e m o st ra pid ly ov e r a bo u t the first 12 w e e k s, w ith no sy stem a tic d ec lin e the rea fter. A po w er fu n ctio n w ith an e xp o n en t o f ± 0 .1 1 fits w e ll th e c u rve fo r 2 tota l m em or y sh o w n in F ig . 1 , S E = .0 2 , R = .7 6 . In th is an d sev e ra l of the c urv e s to b e p res en ted , th ere is a d ip in rating s a t a bo u t 1 4 w ee k s th at w e h a v e b ee n u na b le to e x pla in , o th e r tha n b y c h an c e differe n ce s in so m e p a rtic ip a nts’ u se o f the sc ale , m a gn ifie d b y th e sm a ll sa m p le size fo r o n e of th es e po ints. T o co n du c t a sig n ific an c e te st th a t m ee ts th e a ssum ptio n of in d ep e nd e n ce , w e teste d th e fit
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FIG. 1.
M e a n ra tin g s a s a fu n c tio n o f w e e k s si n c e th e e v e n t fo r a ll n in e m e m o ry i te m s (T o t al
m em o ry ) o n th e T h an k sg iv in g s u rv e y , a n d o v e ra ll m e m o ry in T h o m p s o n ’ s (1 9 8 2 ) s tu d y .
of a p o w er fun c tio n to in d iv id u al su b jec ts’ d ata ra the r th a n the m e an s for ea c h te sting tim e . O nly su bje cts w h o re p orted n o t h a v in g p artic ipa te d b efo re w e re in c lu d e d in th is a n aly sis. P o w e r fu nc tio n s sim ila r to tho se th at fit the gro u p d ata w e re sign ific a n t be y on d th e .0 0 01 le ve l b y m u ltip le re g ressio n in th is a nd th e sub se q u en t an aly ses . F ig u re 1 a lso in c lu d e s a p lo t o f m e m o ry rating s fro m T h o m p so n’ s (1 9 8 2 ) dia ry stud y . A p o w e r fu nc tio n w ith a n e xp o n en t o f ± 0 .1 8 pro v id e s an e x ce llen t 2 fit to th e se d ata , R = .9 9 . T h e sm o o th e r c u rv e an d b e tte r fit in T h o m p so n’ s d ata are v e ry lik e ly d u e to the fa ct th a t rete ntion inte rv a l w as a w ith in -su b jec t va ria b le in h is stu d y, an d to p a rtic ipa n ts’ a bility to lea rn to u se th e sc ale co n siste n tly b y m a k ing m an y jud g e m e n ts. T h e tw o c u rve s sh o w n ea rly id en tica l v a lue s a t re te n tio n in t erv a ls o f a b o u t o n e -h a lf w e ek , a n d b o th su g g e st de c ele rating ra te s of d ec line w ith th e p a ssag e o f tim e (re fle c te d in the ex p o ne n ts of ± 0 .1 1 an d ± 0.1 8). B u t as th e d iffe re n ce s in th e ex p o ne n ts su g ge st, ra tin g s in T h o m p so n ’ s stud y d e cline m o re ra pid ly an d a p pro a ch a n a sym p tote tha t is lo w e r in v a lu e th an th os e in th e p res en t stu d y . Ite m C luste rs. M u ltidim e nsio na l sc a lin g (M D S ) a sse ssed the dim e n sion a l stru c tur e o f th e in te rco rre la tion s a m o n g th e n in e sca le ite m s. A m etric
CHANGES IN PROPERTIES OF MEMORIES
373
m u ltid im e n sio n a l a n aly sis, u sing th e S P S S v ersio n of th e A L S C A L p ro gra m , y ie lde d a on e -d im en sion a l so lu tion w ith a stress va lue o f 0 .1 9 (S tre ss F o rm u la 1 ; 1 K rusk a l & W ish , 19 7 8 ) a n d a cc o u nte d fo r 8 8 % o f the v a ria n c e. T h e tw o d im e n sio n a l s o lu tio n sh o w e d a n im p ro v e m e n t o v e r th e o n e -d im e n sio n a l so lu tio n , w ith a stre ss va lu e o f 0 .0 6, a n d a cc o u n te d fo r 9 8 % o f th e v arian c e. T h e sc a tte r p lot o f th e lin e ar fit for d isp a rity v e rsu s d ista n ce sho w e d a n ap p ro p ria te ly sm o o th a n d inc rea sin g lin ea r fu nc tion . F ig u re 2 is a g rap h ica l d ep iction o f th e co n fig u ra tio n o f ite m s fro m the tw o -d im e n sion a l so lutio n. B a se d on th e c lu sterin g o f ite m s sho w n in F ig . 2 , fiv e in d ic e s w e re g ro up e d tog e th e r fo r fu rth er a n aly sis. F o od a nd p eo p le ra tin g s (Q u e stio n s 9 a nd 6 ) w ere co m bin e d in to o n e in d e x, w h ic h w e refe r to a s sch e m a -rela te d ev e nts, be c au se the se ite m s o f in fo rm a tio n se em esp e cia lly su sce p tib le to rec o n stru c tio n for a T h a nk sg iv in g d inn e r. S h a rp n e ss, v iv id n es s, a n d de tail (Q ue stion s 1 ±3 ) w ere co m bin e d in to a no th er in d e x, w h ic h w e ca lle d g lob a l m e m o ry . Q ua lity o f m e m o ry for c o nv e rsatio ns an d nu m b er o f co n v ersa tio n s rem em b ere d (Q u e stio n s 4 an d 5) w e re c o m b in e d in to a th ird in d e x c a lle d c o nv e rsatio ns . R ating s o f o th e rs’ clo th ing (Q u e stio n 8 ) an d rating s o f o n e’ s o w n c lo thin g (Q ue stio n 7 )
FIG. 2
1
C lu s te rs o f t h e n in e m e m o ry ra ti n g s i n a t w o -d im e n si o n a l sc a l in g s o lu ti o n .
O u r d a ta w e re t o o s k e w e d to m e et a ss u m p tio n s o f fa c to r a n a ly s is . I n a d d i tio n to th e m e tr ic M D S
a n a l y s is re p o rt e d h e re , w e c o n d u c te d a n o th e r M D S a n a ly s is a s su m in g o rd in al , ra t h e r th a n in te rv a l, s c al e s. T h is p ro d u c ed t h e s a m e re s u l ts b u t is n o t re p o rte d i n d e t a il b e c a u s e o u r s am p le s iz e w a s m a rg i n a l fo r th is te c h n i q u e .
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FRIEDMAN AND deWINSTANLEY
re p re sen ted th e fo u rth a n d fifth in dic es, resp e ctiv ely . A ltho u g h m e m o ry fo r oth e rs’ c loth in g fell in th e se c on d q ua d ran t w ith co n v ersa tio n rating s, th e distan c e b e tw e en c lo th ing rating s a nd c on v er sation rating s w a s sim ila r to th e distan c e s b e tw e e n c on v e rsation s a nd a ll oth e r in dic es; thu s, w e d e cid ed n o t to gro u p oth ers’ c lo th ing w ith co n v ersa tio n s. F ig u r e 3 sh o w s t h e f iv e n e w d i m e n s io n s Ð sc h e m a , g lo b a l m e m o r y , co n ve rsa tio n s, su bje ct’ s c loth in g, a n d o th e rs’ c lo th in g Ð p lo tte d b y w e e ks sinc e T h a n ksg ivin g . T his fig u re re ve als q u ite d iffe ren t fun c tio n s. S ch e m a ha d th e hig h est v alu es a n d th e lea st d e clin e o f an y of the m e a sure s, p o w e r ex p o ne n t = ± 2 0.0 7, S E = .0 1 , R = .7 5 . T he cu rv e fo r g lo ba l m em or y sh o w s lo w e r m e m o ry ra tin g s at ea c h re te n tio n in te rv a l b u t is sim ilar in sh ap e to the c u rve for sc he m a , 2 ex p on e n t = ± 0.1 1, S E = .0 2, R = .5 7 . S u b je c t’ s c lo th in g h ad v alu e s a p p ro a c hin g th o se o f sc h em a an d g lo ba l m em ory fo r th e sh orte st rete ntio n inte rv als, bu t it sho w e d th e g re atest d ec lin e w ith th e p a ssag e of tim e, e x p on e n t = ± 0.2 2 , 2 SE = .0 4 , R = .6 8. C o n ve rsa tio n s w e re th e fou rth b e st rem em b e re d at sho rt re ten tio n inte rv a ls, an d ra tin g s ag a in d ec lin ed su b sta n tia lly w ith th e p assa g e o f 2 ti m e , e x p o n e n t = ± .1 4 , S E = .0 3 , R = .6 7 . F i n a ll y , o th e r s ’ c l o t h i n g w a s distinc tiv e in b ein g th e w orst re m e m b e red Ð ratin gs fell n ea r th e m id p o in t o f
FIG. 3.
M e a n rat in g s fo r th e f iv e i te m c lu st e rs a s a fu n c ti o n o f w e e k s s in c e t h e e v en t.
CHANGES IN PROPERTIES OF MEMORIES
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the sca le ev e n a t th e sh o rte st re te n tio n in terv a l. H o w ev e r, it a lso sho w e d fu rth e r d ec lin e w ith the p assa g e o f tim e , a nd its tim e c ou rse g e ne ra lly fo llow e d a n 2 ex p o ne n tia l de c ay fu nc tio n , e xp o n e nt = ± 0 .1 5 , S E = .0 4 , R = .5 1 . R e lia bility o f G lo b a l R a tin g s. W e ex a m in ed th e c orre la tio n s b e tw e en th e thre e g lo b al rating s sca les to see w h e th e r g lob a l ratin gs o f the q u a lity o f m e m o ry , sim ila r to th ose u se d in T h o m p so n ’ s stu d ie s (1 9 82 ; T h om p so n e t al., 1 99 6 ), a re re lia b le. D e sp ite the d iffe ren t term s use d (d im /sh a rp , v ag u e /v iv id , an d sk etch y /v ery de tailed ), th e th ree w ere stron g ly c orre lated . R a tin gs o n Q u estio n 1 w ere h ig h ly c o rrelate d w ith th o se o n Q u estio n 2 (r = 0 .8 6 ) an d Q ue stio n 3 (r = 0 .8 9 ). Q u e stio n s 2 a n d 3 w e re also h igh ly c orre lated (r = 0 .8 6). T his pa tte rn su gg e sts tha t th e d iffe ren t g lob a l-m e m o ry q ue stio n s w e re ta p pin g a sim ila r q ua lity o f m em or ie s. Influe n c es on M e m o ry R a tin g s. In a d d ition to ask in g su b je cts to rate th eir m e m o ry fo r T h a nk sg iv in g o n 1 0 ite m s, w e a sk ed su b jec ts to ra te th e nu m b er o f tim es th at the y talk ed a bo u t th e ev e nt, th e nu m b er o f tim e s th a t th e y th o ug h t ab o u t th e e ve n t, w h eth er th ey h ad p artic ipa te d in th e su rv ey b efo re, an d th e loc atio n o f th e e ve n t. T h e im p a ct o f the se v a ria ble s on th e m e m o ry ra tin g s w a s asse sse d usin g a n o n-p a ram etric c orre lation p roc e d ure (Sp e a rm a n’ s R h o ). A lth o u gh w e w o u ld h a v e p refe rred to u se the m o re po w e rfu l p ara m e tric statistic s, se ve ral o f the m e m o ry ind ice s w e re e x tre m e ly sk e w ed . T h e sta n da rd erro r o f th e sk ew ra n ge d fro m ± 1 .6 3 for sch e m a ra tin g s to .8 0 fo r ra tin g s o f o th e rs’ c loth in g. T h u s, w e c o n sid e red the n on -p a ra m e tric tests a p ru de n t ap p ro ac h . T a b le 2 sho w s S pe a rm a n’ s R h o co rrelatio n c oe ffic ie nts. In o rd e r to u se S pe a rm a n’ s R ho to co rrela te th e p la c e o f the ev en t w ith the m e m o ry in dic es,
TABLE 2 Correlation Coefficients P la c e
P a r ti c ip a te
T a lk e d A b o u t
Th o ug ht A bo u t
(1 = H o m e , 2 = O th e r )
(0 = N o , 1 = Y es )
4 3 7 ±4 3 8
4 3 8 ±4 3 9
4 3 1 ±4 3 2
4 9 0 ±4 9 1
T o ta l M e m o ry
0 .5 3 ²
0 .5 5 ²
S u b j e ct ’ s C lo th in g
0 .3 6 ²
0 .3 4 ²
±0 .0 2
0 .0 4
O th e r’ s C l o t h i n g
0 .3 9 ²
0 .4 0 ²
0 .0 6
±0 .0 3
S c h e m a -re l a te d
0 .3 4 ²
0 .3 4 ²
±0 .0 6
±0 .0 4
C o n v e rs ati o n s
0 .5 0 ²
0 .5 3 ²
0 .0 5
±0 .0 9 * *
G lo b a l M em o ry
0 .4 8 ²
0 .5 0 ²
0 .1 5 * * * *
±0 .1 5 * * * *
M em o r y In d ic e s N
0 .0 8 *
±0 .0 9 *
S p e a rm an ’ s c o rre l a tio n s b e tw e e n th e m e m o r y in d ic e s a n d th e p l a ce o f t h e e v e n t s, w h e th e r s u b je c ts p a rt ic ip a te d i n th e s u rv e y , an d n u m b e r o f tim e s s u b je c ts ta lk e d a b o u t a n d t h o u g h t a b o u t th e e v e n t . T w o -ta il e d s ig n if ic a n c e l e v e l s fo r a ll a n al y s e s , ² P < .0 0 0 1 , * * * * P < .0 0 1 , * * * P < .0 1 , * * P < .0 5 , * P < .1 0 .
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w e first dic h o to m ise d th e v a ria ble , g ro up ing fo r c o m p a riso n s th e la st tw o ca teg o rie s (i.e . sch o o l an d o th er). F o r all c orre lation s (e x ce p t th e o n es in v o lv in g pa rtic ip atio n ), o nly th e d a ta fro m su b je cts w h o ind ica ted th a t th ey ha d n o t pre v io u sly pa rtic ip a te d in th e su rv ey w ere use d . F re q ue n c y of ta lk in g ab o u t an d thin k in g a bo u t T ha n k sg iv ing w e re bo th asso c iated w ith h ig h e r ra tin g s fo r to ta l m e m o ry a n d ea c h o f th e fiv e item clu sters. P lac e w h e re T h a n ksg iv in g w as c ele bra ted w as a v e ry w e ak in flu en c e o n m e m o ry ratin g s, b u t th e sig n ific an t co rrela tio n fo r g lo b a l m em ory sh o w ed tha t pa rtic ip an ts w h o c ele b ra ted th e h o lid a y in a n a ty p ica l lo ca tio n re p o rte d h igh e r ra tin g s o f th eir m e m o ry . Fin ally , p rev io u s pa rtic ip ation in the su rv ey h a d little in flu en c e o n m e m o ry ra tin g s, w ith su bje cts w h o re p orted h av in g co m p le te d qu e stio n n aires b e fo re sho w in g slig h tly lo w e r ra tin g s o n se v era l in dic es. It m a y be th at th ere w as an e x ag g e ration in th e a m ou n t o f de c lin e in th e qu a lity o f m e m o ries b y su bje c ts w h o w ere c u ed to the pa ssa ge of tim e b y th eir p rev io us pa rtic ip atio n .
Winter Holiday Survey A to tal o f 1 6 1 p artic ip an ts co m ple te d a sim ilar q u estio n na ire fo r a w inte r ho lid a y e ve n t a n d p ro v ide d a d a te fo r th e e v en t. E v en ts w ere g ro u p ed in to 1 0 re ten tio n in terv a ls ra n g in g fro m 6 to 1 9 w e e ks. F igu re 4 sh ow s th e to ta l-m e m o ry sco re s fo r the w inte r ho lid a y surv e y a n d th e T h a nk sg ivin g surv e y a s a fu n ctio n of n um b er o f w e ek s sin c e th e ev e nt. W ith o n ly a b ou t ha lf a s m an y sub jec ts p e r da ta p o int, th e cu rv e fo r the w in te r h o lid a y da ta is m o re erra tic th a n th e c u rve fo r th e T h a nk sg iv in g su rv e y . H o w e v e r, it a p pe a rs th at th ere is little d iffe ren c e be tw e e n th e tw o c urv e s. M a n y h o lid a y ce le bra tio n s o c cu r in ab o u t th e fiv e w e e k s follo w in g T h a n ksg iv in g , b ut few oc c ur fro m N ew Y e ar th rou g h to th e m idd le o f M a y , w he n th e stud y en d ed . T he re fo re , o ne m ig h t su p p os e th a t if la te r ho lid a y s in te rfe re w ith e arlier o n es a nd if in te rfe ren ce is th e so u rc e o f d e clin es in m e m o ry ra tin g s, th e T ha n ksg iv ing c urv e sh o u ld fall be lo w th e w inte r h o lid a y cu rv e. T h e re is no e vid e nc e th at this is so. W e a lso use d th e w in ter h o lid a y d a ta to c he c k th e ro b u stne ss o f th e m u ltid im e nsio n a l sc alin g so lu tio n th a t e m erg e d fro m th e T h an k sg iv in g da ta. T h e so lu tion for th e w in ter ho lida y su rv ey re su lted in th e clu sterin g o f the item s in to the sa m e five g rou p s. A ga in th e tw o -d im e n sio n al so lu tio n (stre ss = .0 7 , 2 2 R = .9 8 ) w a s su pe rior to th e o n e -d im en sion a l so lu tio n (stres s = .2 3 , R = .8 4 ).
DISCUSSION T h is stu d y w as d esig ne d to p ro v id e in fo rm ation a bo u t c ha n g es in the q u a lity o f m e m o ries for T h a nk sg iv in g d inn e r o v er a pe rio d of ab o u t six m o n th s fo llow in g th e e ve n t. P articip a nts m ad e th re e g lo ba l ra tin g s a n d a lso ju d g e d th eir m e m o rie s fo r se v era l sp e cific a sp ec ts of th e d inn e r. T h e re sults sh ow e d ex p o ne n tia l de c lin e s in the q u ality o f m e m o rie s ov e r th is in terv a l, just a s p ast stud ies usin g
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377
M e a n ra tin g s fo r to ta l m e m o ry i n t h e w in te r h o l id ay s u rv e y a n d t h e T h a n k s g iv in g s u rv e y a s
a fu n c ti o n o f w e e k s s in c e t h e e v en t.
sim ila r re ten tio n in te rva ls (e .g . S u dm a n & B rad b u rn , 19 7 3 ; a nd se e R ub in & W e n ze l, 1 9 96 ) h a ve sh ow n e x po n e ntia l d e cline s in pro p o rtio ns of e ve n ts rec alled o r rec o g n ise d . T he e xp o n e nts o f p ow e r fun c tio n s d esc rib in g th e tem po ra l p a tte rn in th e pre se nt stu d y w e re a bo u t ± 0 .1 0 fo r th e c o m p o site of all rating s a nd fo r th e m e an o f th e glo ba l rating s. T h ese e xp o n e nts are so m e w ha t sm a lle r th a n the ex p o ne n t d esc rib in g ov e ra ll m em o ry for d aily e v en ts in T h o m p so n ’ s (1 9 82 ) stu d y , ± 0 .1 8 . T h e sm a lle r e x po n e nts in th e p re se n t stu d y m a y re flec t a co n trib ution o f sch em at ic k n o w le d g e a bo u t T h an k sg ivin g to p artic ipa n ts’ c o nfid e nc e in th e c om p le ten e ss of th e ir m em orie s. A se p ara te p lo t o f th e tim e co u rse of m em ory fo r fo o d an d for th e p e o ple p re se nt sh ow e d rela tiv e ly hig h ratin g s thro u g ho u t th e tim e p eriod sa m p led a nd less d e cline tha n o th e r d im e nsio n s, ex p o ne n t = ± 0.0 7. W e pre su m e th a t m o st su b jec ts c ou ld rec o nstru c t m u c h o f th e in fo rm a tio n a b ou t th e m en u a n d w h o w as p re se nt from eith er ty pic al T h an k sg iv in gs o r re m e m b e rin g th at th e y c eleb ra te d the e ve n t w ith the ir frie n ds a t co lleg e . T h e e xp o n en ts fo r n o n-s ch e m a tic in fo rm ation in th e p re se nt stu d y a ll fe ll in th e ra ng e o f ± 0 .1 4 to ± 0.2 2, a ll qu ite sim ila r to th e v a lu e o f - 0 .1 8 fou n d in T ho m pso n ’ s (1 9 8 2 ) stu d y .
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D esp ite th e d iffere nc e s be tw ee n T h o m p so n ’ s an d o ur g lob a l ratin g s in ra te o f d ec lin e , th e g e ne ral sim ila rity in th e tim e co u rse is strik ing g iv e n th e m an y d iffe ren c es b etw ee n th e tw o stud ies. It ap p ea rs th at th e o v era ll qu a lity o f m e m o rie s fo r pe rso na l e ve n ts d ec line s ra pid ly in th e w ee k s fo llo w in g th eir o cc u rre n c e a nd th at th e cu rv e s h a ve flatten e d su b stan tially b y ab o u t 1 2 w e e k s. T he se fin d in g s su g g est th a t w h e n p eo p le resp o n d to su rv e y q ue stio n s ab o u t life e ve n ts, th ey a re lik e ly to b e e sp ec ially co n fid e n t in th e ir m e m o ries fo r e v en ts from th e pa st w ee k , an d th at d e clin e s in c on fide n c e m a y b e su b stan tial in th e e nsu in g w e e ks. H o w e ve r, it is like ly th at the re is little fu rth er d e cre ase from thre e m o n th s to six m o n th s in c o nfid en c e in m e m o rie s fo r ev e nts. T h e te m p o ral pa tte rn s fo u n d fo r q u ality o f m em orie s in th is a n d T h om pso n ’ s (1 98 2 ) stud y a re g e ne rally co n siste n t w ith th o se fou n d for th e om issio n of ev en ts in su rve y s of co n su m e r p u rch a se s o r sic k d ay s. S u d m a n an d B rad b u rn (1 97 3 ) rep o rte d th a t the p ro p ortion o f d oc u m e n te d e v en ts in th e p ast th a t are a c tu a lly rep o rte d d e clin es in a m a n n er d e scrib ed b y e x po n e n ts b e tw e e n ab o u t ± .0 5 to ± .1 0 fo r re ten tio n in terv a ls ra ng ing u p to th ree m o nth s to nin e m on th s. In a ll c ase s th e re is a p eriod o f rap id d e cline , w ith slo w e r ra tes o f de c lin e th ere af te r. T he se fu n ctio ns m ay b e h e lp fu l w h e n su rve y rese arc h ers n ee d to asse ss the co st in m isse d or po o rly re m em be re d ev e nts o f sa m pling ta rge t e ve n ts from d iffe ren t d ista nc e s in the p ast: th e c o st d o es n o t inc re ase lin ea rly w ith in cre asin g ly lon g rete ntio n in terv als. T h e fin din g s o f th e p re se nt stu d y a re also n o ta b le b ec au se th ey pro v ide info rm ation a b ou t th e c u es th a t resp o nd e nt s co u ld use w h en a n sw erin g q ue stio n s a bo u t th e te m p o ral d ista nc e s of p a st e ve n ts. W h e n re sp on d e nts a re a ble to rec o n stru c t the tim e s o f p ast ev e n ts, th e fu nc tio n re latin g e stim a ted tim e to th e true re ten tio n in terv a l is u sua lly lin e ar (e .g . th e ne w s e v en t c o nd ition in F r ie d m a n & H u tte n l o c h e r ’ s , 1 9 9 7 , stu d y ) . H o w e v e r , w h e n d e p r iv e d o f info rm ation th at ca n a llo w the re co n stru ctio n o f th e tem po ra l lo c atio n s o f p ast e ve n ts, p o w e r fun c tio n s p ro v id e a b etter fit th an lin ea r fu n ction s (F rie dm a n , 1 9 96 ). T h ese p ow e r fun c tio n s an d tho se de scr ib in g d e clin e s in th e q u ality o f m e m o rie s in th e p rese n t stu d y a ll sh o w a sim ila r tim e c ou rse ; rela tiv ely ra pid c ha n ge ov e r a p e rio d o f a b o ut tw o to th re e m on th s, w ith little ch a ng e th ere af te r. T hu s, th e pre sen t fin d ing s in dic ate th a t te m p o ral ch a n ge s in th e pe rce iv ed q u ality o f m e m orie s p ro v ide a p lau sib le m e c ha n ism fo r a llo w in g p eo p le to ju dg e the d ista nc e s o f e v en ts in the p ast. If ch a ng e s in the q u alitie s of m em orie s d o e x pla in th e tem p ora l p ro p erties o f d ista nc e -b ase d tim e ju d ge m e n ts, the y m ay a lso b e a p artia l e x pla na tion o f th e p h en o m e n o n of fo rw ar d te le sc o pin g . T h e re lativ e la c k of d iffere n tia tio n o f th e v iv id ne ss or c om p le te n e ss o f m em or ie s old er th a n se ve ra l m o n ths m a y lea d to a c o m p re s sio n o f s u b je c tiv e d is ta n c e s fo r o ld e r e v e n ts, a s F rie d m a n a n d H u tte n lo c he r (1 9 97 ) fo u nd in th eir stu d y of m em o ry for th e tim es of te lev ision storie s. H o w e v e r, th e q ua lity -of-m em ory fu n ction c an n o t p ro vid e a g en e ral a cc o u nt o f fo rw ar d te lesc o p in g , be c au se th ere is g o o d e vid e nc e th at g u ess in g
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w ith in a p ro b ab le ra n ge of d ate s an d oth er n o n-d istan c e p roc e sses c o ntrib u te to it (H utten lo ch e r, H e d ge s, & B ra db u rn, 1 9 9 0; H u tte n lo c h er, H ed g es, & P roh a sk a, 1 98 8 ; K e m p , 1 9 88 ; R u b in & B ad d e le y , 1 98 9 ; W rig h t, G a sk e ll, & O ’ M uirch e arta ig h , 1 9 9 7). A no the r find ing o f the pre se nt stud y is th at p articip a nts w ere ab le to d iffe re n tia te b etw ee n th e q u a lity o f d iffe re n t asp e c ts o f th eir m em o ry fo r T h a nk sg iv in g d inn e r. T h is w as ev id en t from th e m u ltid im e nsio n a l sca lin g so lu tio n an d fro m a n e xa m in a tio n o f th e tim e fu n ctio n s o f th e d iffe ren t c lus te rs o f ite m s. F ive c lus te rs e m e rg e d from th e sca lin g : a c lu ste r co n sistin g o f the th ree g lo b al m e m o ry ra tin g s, o ne c o nsistin g of fo od an d p e op le p res en t (w h ic h w e b eliev e m ain ly in v o lv e d sc h em atic in fo rm a tio n ), a pa ir o f ite m s re la tin g to co n v ersa tio n s, a n item m e a sur in g w ha t th e pa rtic ipa n t w o re, an d a n item co n c ern ing w h a t o th e rs w o re a t th e d inn e r. T h e c lu sterin g o f the g lo ba l item s sh ow s th a t su bje c ts ca n re lia bly a sse ss th e o ve rall q u ality o f the ir m e m o ry fo r a n ev e n t. B u t the e xiste nc e o f o th e r clu sters sh o w s th a t se v era l o th er p a rtia lly ind e pe n de n t asp e cts o f th e m e m o ry ca n be jud g e d. M ost inte restin g w a s th e fin d ing th at ra tin g s of m em or y fo r foo d a n d fo r p eo p le w e re c lose ly relate d an d sep a rab le fro m a n o th e r see m in g ly p erc ep tu a l ite m of in fo rm atio n: w h at o the rs w ere w ea ring . T h is fin din g w as p rob a b ly n o t d u e to d istinc tive en c o din g p ro c esse s a t th e tim e o f th e d in n er b u t to the u se o f sc he m a tic in form atio n a t th e tim e o f re ca ll. It is n o ta b le tha t th e fo od ±p e op le c lu ster sh ow ed th e h ig he st rating s a nd the lea st d e cline o ve r tim e. T h is is co n siste n t w ith th e ex p e cta tio n tha t in fo rm a tio n tha t ca n be rec o n stru c te d w ill b e m uc h m o re d ura ble tha n info rm a tio n th at m u st be re trie ve d fro m a sp e cific in stan c e. T ho m p son et a l. (19 9 6 ) a nd B rew e r (1 9 86 , 19 9 6 ) h av e arg u e d th a t th e re is a sh ift w ith th e p assa g e o f tim e fro m re p rod u c tiv e , de tailed m e m o ries to rec o nstru ctio n s o f ev e n ts. O ur d ata sh ow th at this tren d is a lso tru e o f th e co n fid e n ce tha t p e op le h av e in th eir m e m o ry fo r d iffe re n t asp e cts o f ev e n ts. H o w e v e r, it sh o u ld b e n ote d tha t e v en rating s o n th e sch e m a tic ite m s de c lin e so m e w h at ov e r a b o ut th e first 1 2 w ee k s, fo llo w e d b y a n ap p are n t le v ellin g -o ff. T h is sh o w s th a t su b je cts are n o t re ly in g e ntire ly o n rec o n stru c tio n in th e ir ra ting s o f m em ory fo r fo o d an d p eo p le ; spe ci fic m em o rie s also co n trib u te to im p re ssio n s o f th e q u ality o f th is info rm a tio n . T h e re m a in in g ty pe s of in fo rm a tion , c o nv e rsatio ns a nd clo th in g , w ere u nlike ly to b en e fit m uc h fro m re c on stru ction a t th e tim e o f re ca ll. A s sug g e ste d ea rlie r, th is m a y b e w h y th e e xp o n en ts d e scribin g th ese c urv e s w e re c lo ser in v alu e to th e o n e from T h o m p so n ’ s (1 98 2 ) d ia ry stud y , w h e re m o st in fo rm a tio n sh ou ld also h av e b ee n d ifficu lt to re co n stru c t. It a p p ea rs tha t the q u ality o f m e m o ry fo r no n -sch e m atic in fo rm a tio n d e clin es rap idly in th e first tw o m on th s an d th at the fu nc tion p lotte d o v er ab o u t six m o n ths is w e ll d e scrib ed b y ex p o ne n ts of ± 0 .1 5 to ± 0.2 0 . B e c au se e lap se d tim e is a co rrela tio n al va riab le, w e c a nn o t te ll w hy q u ality o f-m em or y ra tin g s de clin e in th e w ee k s a nd m o nth s fo llo w in g an e v en t. B u t
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the re a re se ve ral rea so n s to d o u bt th a t sp e cific inte rfe re nc e b y la te r, sim ilar e ve n ts is re sp on sib le. F irst, c o nsid er ab le d e cline s w e re fo u nd in the w ee k s b etw ee n T h a nk sg iv in g an d th e w in ter h olida y s. D u rin g th is tim e stu d e nts w ere o n c am pu s an d oc c up ied w ith fin ish in g the ir se m e ster’ s w o rk ; few w ou ld h a ve e xp e rie n ce d e v en ts sim ilar to T h an k sg ivin g d in n e r. S e co n d , th e re w a s no e vid en c e th at c e le b ratio ns d urin g th e w in ter ho lida y s in la te D ec em b er an d e a rly Ja nu a ry in flu e n ce d su b se q ue n t T h an k sg iv in g ra tin g s. A co m pa riso n b etw e en th e tim e fu nc tio n fo r T h an k sg iv in g rating s a nd th e a na lo go u s plo t for w in te r h olida y ratin g s pro v ide s n o su g g estio n th at T h an k sg ivin g ra tin g s w e re d ispla ce d d o w n w a rd a fte r th e w in te r h o lid ay s. If sp e cific inte rfe re nc e is n o t re sp on sib le fo r d ec lin e s in th e q ua lity o f m em o rie s w ith the pa ssa ge o f tim e , w e a re le ft w ith th e p o ss i b il iti e s t h a t m o r e g e n e r a l in te r f e re n c e , f o r e x a m p l e b y d a i ly e xp e rie n ce s, is resp o n sib le or tha t m e m o rie s ind e p en d en tly c h an g e a s th e y ag e . In a d ditio n to ra tin g th e q u ality o f th e ir m e m o ries, su bje cts re p o rte d ho w freq u en tly th e y th o u g ht a b ou t a nd ta lk e d ab o u t T h an k sg ivin g d in n er. B oth m e a sur es w ere m o d e rately p ositiv e ly c o rre late d w ith th e q u ality -o f-m e m ory ratin g s. T h o m p so n (1 9 8 2; a n d se e T h om p son e t a l., 1 9 96 ) a lso fo un d tha t ho w freq u en tly su b je c ts tho u g h t a bo u t o r ta lk e d a b o ut an ev e nt w as p ositiv e ly rela ted to m e m o ry ratin g s. It m ay b e tha t rea c tiv atio n of m e m o ries co u nte ra c ts th e e ffe cts of g e ne ral in terfere n ce o r intrinsic , tim e -lin k ed p ro ce sse s. H o w ev e r, the se re su lts co u ld a lso b e du e to the fa c t tha t stro ng e r m em o rie s are m ore lik ely to b e th o ug h t ab o u t an d d isc u sse d, o r ev e n th at stren g th is so m etim e s u sed to infe r re h e arsa l fre qu e n cy . In c o nc lusio n , rating s o f th e q u ality o f m em orie s d e cline o ve r th e six m o n ths a fte r a n e ve n t in a m a n n er w e ll d esc rib e d b y p o w e r fu n ctio ns w ith e xp o n e nts ran g in g fro m ± 0 .0 7 to ± 0 .2 2 . T h e v alu es of th e e x p on e n ts de p en d o n th e a spe c ts of th e e v en t th at su b jec ts re c all. Item s o f in fo rm a tio n th at c an b e re c o nstru cted sho w flatter fu n ction s th a n do item s o f in fo rm a tio n tha t are sp ec ific to th e e ve n t. T h e fu nc tio n s o b ta ine d h ere a nd in pre v iou s stu d ie s sh o w th at qu a lity o f m e m o ries co u ld b e th e c ue th at su b je cts u se w he n d ire ctly ju d g in g th e ag e s o f m e m o ries. O ur resu lts h a v e im p lic a tio n s fo r su rve y rese arc h ers c o nc e rne d w ith ho w m e m o ry co n fide n ce ch a ng e s w ith tim e, th e e ffe cts o f th e fre qu e n cy of th in kin g a b ou t a n e ve n t, an d th e kin d s o f tem po ra l in form atio n a v ailab le to re sp on d e nts. T h e re sults also sug g e st th at sc he m a a n d n o n-sc h em a in fo rm a tio n m a y b e ju d g e d by differe nt pro c esse s a nd th at su rv e y s sho u ld b e co n struc ted to in su re a de q u ate sam pling o f b oth typ e s o f in form atio n.
REFERENCES B ra d b u rn , N .M ., R i p s , L .J ., & S h e v el l, S .K . (1 9 8 7 ). A n s w e rin g a u to b i o g ra p h ic a l q u e s t io n s : T h e im p a c t o f m e m o ry a n d in fe re n ce o n s u rv e y s . S c ie n c e, 2 3 6 , 1 5 7 ±1 6 1 . B re w e r, W .F . (1 9 8 6 ) . W h a t i s a u to b io g ra p h i ca l m em o ry ? In D .C . R u b in (E d .), A u to b i o g r a p h ic a l m e m o r y (p p .2 5 ±4 9 ). C a m b rid g e : C a m b rid g e U n i v e rs it y P re s s .
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B re w e r, W .F . (1 9 9 6 ). W h a t i s rec o ll e ct iv e m e m o ry ? In D .C . R u b in (E d .), R e m e m b e r in g o u r p a s t: S t u d ie s in a u to b i o g ra p h ic a l m e m o r y (p p .1 9 ±6 6 ). N e w Y o rk : C a m b rid g e U n i v e rs it y P re s s . C o n w a y , M .A . (1 9 9 0 ). A u t o b io g r a p h i c a l m e m o r y : A n in tr o d u c ti o n . M i lto n K ey n e s, U K : O p en U n iv e rs it y P re s s . F ri ed m a n , W .J . (1 9 9 3 ). M e m o ry fo r th e t im e o f p a s t e v en ts . P sy c h o l o g ic a l B u ll et in , 1 1 3 , 4 4 ±6 6 . F ri ed m a n , W .J . (1 9 9 6 ). D is ta n ce a n d l o c a ti o n p ro c es s e s i n m e m o ry fo r th e tim e s o f p a s t e v e n ts . In D .L . M e d in (E d .), T h e p s y c h o lo g y o f le a r n in g a n d m o tiv a ti o n (V o l. 3 5 , p p .1 ±4 1 ). O rla n d o , F L : A ca d e m ic P re s s . F ri ed m a n , W .J ., & H u tt en lo c h e r, J . (1 9 9 7 ). M e m o ry fo r th e t im e o f ``6 0 M in u t e s’ ’ s to rie s a n d n e w s e v e n ts . J o u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n ta l P sy c h o lo g y : L ea r n i n g , M e m o r y a n d C o g n i tio n , 2 3 , 5 6 0 ±5 6 9 . H u t te n l o c h e r, J., H e d g e s , L .V ., & B ra d b u rn , N .M . (1 9 9 0 ). R e p o rt s o f e la p s e d tim e : B o u n d in g a n d ro u n d i n g p r o c e s se s i n e st im a ti o n . J o u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n t a l P s y c h o lo g y: L e a rn in g , M em o r y , a n d C o g n itio n , 1 6 , 1 9 6 ±2 1 3 . H u t te n l o c h e r, J ., H e d g e s , L .V ., & P ro h a s k a , V . (1 9 8 8 ) . H ie ra rc h ica l o r g a n iz a tio n i n o rd er ed d o m a in s: E s tim a ti n g th e d a te s o f e v e n t s . P s y c h o lo g i c a l R e v ie w , 9 5 , 4 7 1 ±4 8 4 . J o h n s o n , M .K ., F o l ey , M .A ., S u e n g a s , A .G ., & R a y e , C .L . (1 9 8 8 ). P h e n o m en a l c h a ra c te ris tic s o f m e m o rie s fo r p e rc e iv e d a n d i m ag in e d a u to b i o g ra p h ic a l e v e n ts . J o u rn a l o f E x p e r im e n ta l P s y c h o lo g y : G e n e r a l, 1 1 7 , 3 7 1 ±3 7 6 . K e m p , S . ( 1 9 8 8 ). D a t in g re c e n t a n d h is to ric a l e v e n t s. A p p li e d C o g n it iv e P s y c h o lo g y , 2 , 1 8 1 ±1 8 8 . K ru s k a l, J ., & W is h , M . (1 9 7 8 ). M u ltid i m en si o n a l s c a l in g . S a g e U n iv e rs ity P re s s S er ie s o n Q u a n tita tiv e A p p l ic a tio n i n t h e S o c ia l S ci e n c e s , n o . 0 7 ±0 1 1 . B e v e rl y H il ls , C A : S ag e . L i n t o n , M . (1 9 7 5 ). M e m o ry fo r re a l w o rl d e v e n ts . In D .A . N o rm a n & D .E . R u m e lh a rt (E d s.), E x p lo ra tio n s in c o g n it io n (p p .3 7 6 ±4 0 4 ) . S a n F ra n c is c o : F re e m a n . L o ftu s , E .F ., & M a rb u rg e r, W . (1 9 8 3 ). S in ce t h e e ru p t io n o f M t . S t . H e le n s, h a s a n y o n e b e at e n y o u u p ? I m p ro v i n g t h e a c c u ra c y o f re tro s p e c tiv e re p o rts w i th l a n d m a rk e v e n ts . M em o r y a n d C o g n itio n , 1 1 , 1 1 4 ±1 2 0 . R u b i n , D .C ., & B a d d e le y , A .D . (1 9 8 9 ). T el e sc o p in g i s n o t t im e c o m p re s s io n : A m o d e l o f th e d a t in g o f a u to b i o g rap h ic a l e v e n ts . M e m o r y a n d C o g n i tio n , 1 7 , 6 5 3 ±6 6 1 . R u b i n , D .C ., & W e n z el , A .E . (1 9 9 6 ). O n e h u n d re d y e a rs o f fo rg e ttin g : A q u a n t ita ti v e d e sc ri p t io n o f re te n t io n . P s yc h o lo g ic a l R ev i e w , 1 0 3 , 7 3 4 ±7 6 0 . S u d m a n , S ., & B ra d b u rn , N .M . (1 9 7 3 ). E ff ec t s o f t im e an d m e m o ry fa ct o rs o n r es p o n se su rv ey s . J o u r n a l o f th e A m e r ic a n S t a t is tic a l A s s o c i a t io n , 6 8 , 8 0 5 ±8 1 5 . T h o m p s o n , C .P . (1 9 8 2 ). M e m o ry fo r u n iq u e p e rs o n a l e v en ts : T h e ro o m m a t e s t u d y . M e m o ry a n d C o g n itio n , 1 0 , 3 2 4 ±3 3 2 . T h o m p s o n , C .P ., S k o w ro n s k i, J.J., L a rs e n , S .F ., & B e tz , A . (1 9 9 6 ). A u to b i o g r a p h ic a l m e m o r y : R e m e m b er in g w h a t a n d re m e m b e r in g w h e n . M a h w a h , N J : L a w re n ce E rlb au m A s s o ci a te s In c . W a g e n a a r, W .A . (1 9 8 6 ). M y m e m o ry : A s t u d y o f a u to b io g ra p h ica l m e m o ry o v e r si x y e a rs . C o g n itiv e P s y c h o l o g y, 1 8 , 2 2 5 ±2 5 2 . W i llis, G .B ., R o y s t o n , P ., &
B erc i n i , D . (1 9 9 1 ). T h e u s e o f v e rb al re p o rt m e th o d s i n th e
d e v e lo p m e n t an d te s tin g o f s u rv e y q u e s ti o n n ai re s . A p p li e d C o g n it iv e P sy c h o l o g y , 5 , 2 5 1 ±2 6 7 . W i x t ed , J .T ., & E b b es e n , E .B . (1 9 9 1 ). O n t h e fo rm o f fo rg et ti n g . P s y ch o lo g i ca l S c i en c e , 2 , 4 0 9 ± 41 5. W ri g h t, D .B ., G a s k e ll, G .D ., & O ’ M u ir ch e art a ig h , C .A . (1 9 9 7 ). T e m p o ra l e s ti m at io n o f m a jo r n e w s e v e n ts : R e -e x a m i n in g t h e a c c e ss i b ility p ri n c ip le . A p p li e d C o g n it ive P sy c h o l o g y, 1 1 , 3 5 ±4 6 .
M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 3 8 3 ±4 0 6
T h e S tr u c tu r e o f A u to b io g r a p h ic a l M e m o r y a n d th e E v e n t H isto r y C a le n d a r : P o te n tia l Im p r o v e m e n ts in th e Q u a lity o f R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e p o r ts in S u r v e y s R o b e rt F . B e lli U n ive rsity o f M ic h ig a n , U S A
T his p a p e r r e vie w s th e lite ra tu r e o n th e st ru ctu re of a uto b io g r ap h ic a l m e m o ry a nd po ints to th e u se o f e v en t hist o ry c ale nd a rs as a su r ve y m e th o do log y th a t r e flec ts th is s tr u c t u r e . A u to b i o g r a p h ic a l m e m o r y s tr u c tu r e is c h a r a c te r is e d a s a n hie ra rc h ic a l n e tw o rk th a t in clu de s ex ten d ed , s um m a ris e d, a nd sp e c ific e ve n ts , an d th at p e rm its re trie v al o f p a st e ve n ts th ro ug h m ultip le p a th w ay s tha t w o rk to p± do w n in th e h ie r ar ch y , se q ue n tially w ithin life th e m es th at un ify e xte n d e d e ve n ts , an d in p ar a llel ac r o s s life th em es th at inv o lv e co n te m p or a ne o us an d se q ue n tia l e v e n ts . T r a d itio n a l s u r v e y q u e s tio n s t e n d t o s e g m e n t r e l a te d a s p e c t s o f au tob io g ra p hic al e v e n ts fr om o ne a n o the r , a n d do n o t r ef le c t th e in te rr e la te d n e s s of e ve n ts as in d ic a te d w ithin th e st ru c tu re o f a u to bio g r a ph ic a l m em or y. In c on tra st , ev e n t h is to ry c ale n d a rs d o p ro m o te se q ue n tia l a n d p a ra lle l r etriev a l w ith in th e au tob io g ra p hic al m e m o ry n etw o r k . B y r e flec tin g th e str u ctur e of au tob io g ra p hic al m e m or y , th e u se of e v e nt hist or y c a le nd a rs h a s c o n s id er a ble p ote ntia l in a ss is ting re sp o nd e n ts to r ec o n str u ct th e ir p e rs on a l pa s ts m o re c o m p le te ly an d a c cu ra tely , m a xim is in g th e q u a lity o f re tro sp e ctiv e r ep o rts.
INTRODUCTION T h e qu a lity o f surv e y re sea rch is fu n d am en tally d e p en d en t on th e va lid ity o f resp o n d en t rep o rts, inc lud in g th e ab ility o f resp o n de n ts to a cc u ra te ly re p ort o n the ir p ast b e ha v iou rs, o r ev e n ts th a t th e y h av e w itn e sse d. S u rve y re sea rch e rs h av e be e n aw a re th at p sy ch o log ica l rese a rc h o n au tob io g ra p h ic a l m em o ryÐ tha t is, m e m o ry of o n e’ s p erso n al p astÐ is re lev an t to th eir go a ls o f un d e rsta n din g erro rs th a t ha v e be en o b serv e d in the ir re sp o n de n ts’ re tro sp e ctive re po rts (e.g . S ch w a rz & S u d m a n, 19 9 4 ). E rro rs ha v e b ee n fo u n d in pe o ple ’ s re p o rting o f w ha t, w he n , an d h o w often ev e n ts h av e h a pp e ne d (Jo b e , T o u ra n g ea u , & S m ith, 1 9 9 3 ). B as e d o n u n d e rs ta n d in g th e n a tu r e o f a u to b io g ra p h ic a l m em o ry , ex p lan a tio n s for th es e e rro rs h a v e b e en so u g ht w ith th e ultim ate g o al o f im p rov in g th e a c cu rac y o f su rv ey rep o rt.
R e q u e s ts fo r re p rin ts sh o u l d b e s e n t to R o b e rt F . B el li, In s ti tu te f o r S o c ia l R e s e a rc h , U n iv er si ty o f M i ch ig a n , A n n A r b o r, M I 4 8 1 0 6 -1 2 4 8 , U S A . E m a il : b b e ll i@ u m ic h .ed u
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1 9 9 8 P s y ch o lo g y P re s s L td
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I llu stra tin g l im ita tio n s in a u to b io g ra p h ic a l re c a ll, s u rv e y re p o rts h a v e re v e ale d g ross u nd e rre p o rtin g o f e v en distinc tiv e e v en ts su c h a s h o spita lisa tio n s (C a nn e ll, F ishe r, & B a kk e r, 1 96 5 ), m o to r v e hic le a cc ide n t in ju rie s (C ash & M o ss, 1 9 7 2), a n d p e rio d s of u ne m plo y m e n t (M a th io w e tz , 1 9 86 ). L en g th o f re ten tio n in terv a l a nd d ura tio n o f ev en t ha v e b ee n sh o w n a s fa cto rs a ffe c tin g un d er re p o rting . F o r e x am p le, C a n ne ll e t al. fo u nd th at re spo n d en ts failed to re p o rt on ly 3 % o f h osp italisation s w h e n a ske d w ithin 1 to 1 0 w ee k s o f th e ev e n t, bu t fa ile d to rep o rt 42 % o f h o sp ita lisa tio n s w h en a sk ed 1 y ea r a fte r the e v en t; C a n n ell e t a l. a lso fo u n d th a t un d e rrep o rtin g oc c urre d m o st o fte n fo r sho rtdu ra tio n h osp ita l stay s (1 ±4 d a ys) . W ith re sp ec t to re m e m b e rin g w h en e ve n ts ha p pe n e d, re sp o n d en ts ten d to re p ort e ve n ts as ha v in g o cc u rre d m ore rec e ntly th a n in a ctu a lity, a p h e no m en o n k n o w n a s fo rw a rd te le sc o pin g (e .g . B ac h m a n & O ’ M a ll e y , 1 9 8 1 ; T h o m p s o n , S k o w r o n s k i, & L e e , 1 9 8 8 ). I n e x p la in in g te lesc o p in g , re se arc h ers h a ve su g g este d p ro c esse s th at in vo lv e eithe r b iase s in te m p o ra l rep re sen ta tio n (B rad b u rn, R ip s, & S h ev ell, 1 9 87 ; B ro w n , R ip s, & S h ev e ll, 1 98 5 ) o r a rtifa cts of be ing ask e d to rep o rt w ith in b o un d ar ie s th at are im po se d b y ask ing te m p o ra l refe ren c e p erio d q ue stion s (H utten lo ch e r, H e d ge s, & B ra d b urn , 1 9 9 0; R ub in & B a d d ele y, 19 8 9 ). F in a lly , a cc u rac y in rep o rtin g ho w o ften e v en ts h ap p en e d ha s b e en fo u nd to b e a c om p le x in te rpla y o f su c h va ria b les as th e fre qu e n cy , sim ila rity , an d reg u la rity o f e ve n ts, th e le ng th o f th e re ten tio n in te rv al, th e u se of c lose d o r o p en -e n de d qu e stio n s, a n d w h e th e r re sp o n de n ts en g a ge in e n um e ration o r estim a tio n p roc e sses o r som e co m b in a tio n of th ese re triev a l stra te g ie s (B row n , 1 9 9 5 ; B u rto n & B la ir, 19 9 1 ; M e n on , 19 9 3 ; M e n on , R a g hu b ir, & S c hw a rz, 1 99 5 ). A l t h o u g h s u c h w o r k h a s b e e n in f o r m a t iv e , i t h a s la r g e ly i g n o r e d psy c ho lo g ic a l stu d ie s th a t h av e fo c us ed on the co n ten t of a uto b io g rap h ica l kn o w led g e an d h o w su ch k n o w le d g e is o rg an ise d an d struc tu red (B arsa lou , 19 8 8 ; C o n w ay , 19 9 6 ; L into n , 1 9 8 6). T h is psy c ho lo g ic a l w o rk ha s c on c e ntra te d on th e in v arian c es th at a re fo u nd in th e re m e m b e ring p roc e ss as p e o ple re c o nstru ct th e ir p erso na l p a st. T h ese in v arian c e s sp ec ify th at c erta in ty p e s o f au to bio g ra p h ica l m em o rie s are the m a tica lly a nd tem p ora lly stru ctu re d w ith in a n hie ra rc h ic al o rde rin g . Fu rthe r, re triev a l o f ep iso d ic in fo rm a tio n co n ce rnin g w h a t ha s ha p pe n e d in th e p a st h as be e n sh ow n to be fa cilita ted by u sin g m e m o rie s fro m hig h er-o rde r le v e ls a s cu e s (C o n w a y & B ek e ria n , 1 9 87 ). A ltho u g h a n y p a rt ic u l a r r e tr ie v a l u s u a ll y fo llo w s o n e p a rt ic u la r p a th w a y th ro u g h t h e au to bio g ra p h ica l m em or y h iera rc h y, th e ric h ne ss o f c u es th at are a v aila ble w ith in the a u to bio gra p hic a l m e m o ry stru ctu re p o te n tiate s th e a b ility to in c rea se th e q u ality a n d co m p le te n ess of re tro sp ec tiv e re po rts, b y e nc o u rag in g th e ac tiv a tio n of m ultip le p a th w a y s a t on e tim e. T h is p a p er w ill illu strate th a t o u r p rese nt u n de rstan d in g o f the struc ture o f au to bio g ra p h ica l kn o w led g e c an b e u se d to im pro v e the q u ality of surv e y re sp o n de n ts’ re tro sp e ctive rep o rts of w ha t, w h en , a n d h o w often ev e n ts ha p pe n e d. In illu strating th is p o ten tial, the re w ill b e sp ec ia l co n c en tration o n
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an alre ad y d e ve lo p ed te c hn iq ue in surv e y m eth od o lo gy kn o w n a s th e e v en t h isto ry c alen d a r (C asp i e t a l., 19 9 6 ; F ree d m a n e t a l., 1 98 8 ; K e ssle r & W e th in g to n , 1 9 9 1 ). A lth o u gh d e fin itiv e stu d ies h a ve y e t to b e c o nd u c te d tha t d ire ctly c o n tra st th e e ffec tiv e ne ss o f e v en t histo ry c ale nd a rs in c om p arison to stan d ard su rve y q u estio ns, the u se of e v en t h isto ry ca len d ars ha s b ee n sh o w n to lea d to h ig h-q u ality re tro sp ec tiv e re p orts ev e n a fte r re ten tion in terv a ls o f sev era l y ea rs. R e m a rk a b ly , u tilisatio n of e v en t histo ry c a le n da rs relies o n th e u se o f bo th the m a tic a nd tem po ra l in fo rm a tio n w h ich h as b e en sh o w n to b e so vital as a n asp e ct o f th e stru c tu re of au tob io g ra p h ic a l k n o w led g e. T h u s, th e su cc ess o f th e ev e n t histor y ca le n d ar is la rge ly trac ea b le to th e use o f m an y fa ce ts o f au to bio g rap h ic a l m em o ry struc tu re to im p ro v e the q ua lity of retro sp ec tiv e rep o rts. In ad d itio n to d isc u ssin g th e e v en t h isto ry c a len d ar, I w ill d e vo te atten tion to h o w th is m e tho d o log y ca n po te ntially b e im pro v e d b y an e ve n g re a te r re lia n ce o n tem po ra l an d th em atic cu e s av a ilab le w ithin th e org a nisa tio n o f a u to b io gra ph ic al k no w led g e . T h is p ap e r is d iv id e d in to tw o m ajo r se ction s. T he first se ctio n w ill c o n c e n tr a te o n w h a t is k n o w n a b o u t th e str u c t u re o f a u to b io g r a p h ic a l k no w led g e . T h e sec o n d sec tio n w ill illu strate the im plica tion s o f th is stru c tu re tow a rd s im p ro v ing the q ua lity o f re tro sp e ctiv e rep o rts in su rv e y s.
AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL MEMORY STRUCTURE A uto b iog ra ph ic al m e m o ry m ay b e b est de scrib e d a s in v olv ing th e rem e m b ra n ce s o f e v en ts th at ha v e b e en p erso n a lly ex p erie n ce d (N e isse r, 1 9 8 6). P erso n a lly e x pe rien c ed ev e n ts a re stru c tu re d in a u to b io g ra ph ica l m e m o ry b y h ie rarc h ic a lly o rd er ed ty p es o f m em o ries fo r e v en ts th at v ary in the ir sc o pe an d sp ec ific ity , a n d th is struc tu re is o rg an ise d a lon g te m po ra l an d the m a tic pa thw a y s w hic h gu id e th e re triev a l p ro ce ss.
Types of Memories A lth o u gh th ere h av e be e n slig htly div e rge n t v ie w s re g ard ing th e va rio u s ty pe s o f m e m o ries th a t p eo p le re co v e r w h e n rem em b e rin g the ir p erso n al p a st (e.g . B arsa lo u , 1 9 8 8; B re w e r, 19 8 6 ; C o n w ay , 19 9 6 ; L in to n , 1 9 8 6), a su m m a ry o f th is litera tu re re ve a ls th re e m a in ty p es. T h e m o st g e ne ral ty p es of m em o ry , w h ic h co m prise s the top a n d m id dle o f th e h ie rarc hy , is fo r e x te n de d e ve n ts. M em o rie s for ex ten d ed ev e nts rev ea l th e te m p o ra l n atu re o f a u to b iog ra ph ica l m em o ry , a s su ch e ve n ts a re e x te n de d in tim e fo r p erio ds a s lo n g as m an y ye a rs to as sh o rt a s just a fe w da y s. C o m p rising th e m id d le of the hie ra rch y are m em orie s fo r su m m a rise d ev e nts, w h ic h e m p h asise th e th e m a tic a sp ec t o f a uto b io g rap h ica l m e m o ry . In re m e m be rin g su m m a rise d ev e n ts, ind iv idu a ls are c on sid erin g th e co m m o n th em es tha t u n de rlie ev e nts of th e sa m e k ind . F in ally, th e m o st d e ta ile d typ e of m em o ry a t th e bo ttom o f th e hie ra rc hy is for sp e cific e ve n ts. M em o rie s o f sp ec ific e ve n ts inc lud e th e pe rc ep tua l a nd e p iso dic info rm a tio n th at p ro v id e s
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a se nse o f `re liv in g’ ’ a p a rtic u la r ep isod e as it o rigin a lly oc c urre d . A s th e re m e m b ering o f a spe c ific ev e nt in vo lv es re c on struc ting d e ta ils fro m a sing le ev e nt, the tim e -spa n o f the se e ve n ts is o f sh ort d u ratio n, fro m m an y se co n d s u p to a nd in clu din g sev e ra l ho u rs (C o n w ay , 19 9 6 ). E x te n d ed E v en ts. A t th e to p o f th e h iera rc hy , e x te n d ed ev e nts c om prise th e m o st fu nd a m e n ta l o rga n isa tion a l stru c tu re s, w h ich n e st all o th e r ty p e s o f au to bio g ra p h ica l m e m o rie s. E x ten d e d ev e nts m a y sp a n m a n y y e ars (e.g . ``W h e n I w o rk at X ’ ’ ) o r b e fairly sh ort in d u ration , p erh a ps e xte nd in g fo r ju st a fe w da y s (e .g . ``trip to W ash in g to n , D C ’ ’ ), a nd th ey h av e ide n tifiab le be g in n in gs a n d en d ing s (if n o t c on tinu in g in to th e p re se nt), alth ou g h th e ex a ct en d po in ts m a y b e fu z z y rath er th a n ex ac t. In a d d itio n, e xte nd e d e ve n ts a re o ften c h ara cte rise d b y be in g disc on tinu o u s in th e ir flo w , in w hic h o th e r ac tiv itie s a re in te rsp erse d (B a rsalo u , 1 9 8 8 ). F o r e x am p le , on e d o esn ’ t w o rk a t ``X ’ ’ fo r 2 4 h o u rs a d ay . A d d itio n ally , ex ten d ed e ve n ts a re n ested w ith in o n e a no th er (B a rsa lo u , 19 8 8 ; N e isse r, 1 9 86 ), suc h tha t a la rg er e x te n d ed e v en t (e.g . ``first jo b as la w ye r’ ’ ) co n tain s o th er sm a lle r e x te n de d ev e nts (e.g . ``p e rio d o f tra in in g’ ’ ). M o re o v er, an y p a rtic u la r e xte n d ed e v en t c o nsists of a te m po ra l o rde rin g o f th o se e le m e n ts th a t it c on tain s, su ch a s the e x te n de d ev e n t o f ``sec on d m arriag e ’ ’ co n sistin g o f a te m p o ra l seq u e nc e o f sm a lle r e xte nd e d e ve n ts su ch a s ``fallin g in lo ve ’ ’ , ``livin g to g e th e r’ ’ , an d ``g e ttin g m arried ’ ’ . A c c o rd in g to so m e th e o rists (C o n w ay , 1 9 96 ; C o n w ay & R ub in , 19 9 3 ; L in ton , 1 9 8 6; S ch o o le r & H errm a n n , 1 99 2 ), ce rtain ex ten d e d e ve n ts se rv e a s th e p rim a ry org a nisa tio n al u n its to a u to b io g ra ph ica l k no w led g e an d are also q u a lita tiv ely d if fe re n t f ro m o th e r ex t en d e d ev e n ts . T h e se m o re p rim a ry ex te nd e d e v en ts, w h ich w ill be refe rre d to a s lifetim e p e rio d s (C o n w ay , 19 9 6 ), rep re sen t m a jor th em atic div isio n s in o n e’ s a u to b io g ra ph y th a t are p articu la rly n o tew o rth y in d ete rm in in g o n e ’ s co n c ep t o f s elf (e .g . w ife , psy c ho lo g ist, so n, stu de n t, e tc .), a nd th e c ha n ge s in th is co n ce p t o f w h o o n e is a cro ss th e lifesp a n (se e F ig. 1 fo r a n illu stration o f C o nw a y ’ s m o de l). A s ex te nd e d e v en ts, lifetim e p eriod s e n co m p ass a ce rta in bo u n d ed p erio d o f tim e (e .g . ``w he n I liv e d w ith `X ’ ’ ’ ), an d n est o the r e v en ts to w h ic h th ey in d ex . L ife tim e s p e rio d s are also rela ted b y sha ring h igh e r-ord e r th e m e s su ch a s a re latio nsh ip s th e m e a nd a w or k th em e (C o n w ay , 1 9 9 6; L into n , 1 9 86 ). W ith in a th em e, the life tim e p e rio d s a re se qu e n tia lly o rde red b y tim e, suc h tha t ``w h en I liv ed w ith `X ’ ’ ’ (w ith in re la tio n sh ip s the m e) pre c ed e s ``w he n I w a s m a rrie d to `Y ’ ’ ’ . A cro ss the m e s, m o re tha n o n e lifetim e pe rio d m a y o v e rla p du rin g th e sa m e p erio d o f tim e , de p en d in g on w h ich h ig h er-o rd e r the m e s are go v er nin g o n e’ s sen se o f se lf a t tha t m o m e nt in tim e . F o r e xa m p le , th e re m a y be o v erlap o f b ein g a fa th e r d u rin g ``w h en I w a s m a rrie d to `Y ’ ’ ’ w ith b ein g a co g nitiv e p sy ch o log ist d urin g ``w h e n I w ork e d at `Z ’ ’ ’ . M o re ov e r, life tim e pe rio d s, an d esp e cia lly th e th em es o f w hic h th ey a re a pa rt, are no t on ly ba se d o n a ctu al e xp e rien ce , b u t are also go v e rne d b y sh a red c ultu ra l no rm s
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FIG. 1.
A n illu s tra ti o n o f C o n w a y ’ s (1 9 9 6 ) m o d e l o f h ie ra rc h i c a l au to b io g ra p h ic a l k n o w le d g e s tru c tu r es . C o p y ri g h t Ó 1 9 9 6 b y C a m b rid g e U n i v e rs ity P re s s . R e p r in te d w it h p e rm is s io n .
th a t la r g e ly d e t e r m in e th e w a y s in w h ic h t h e e v e n t s o f li fe w i ll b e ex p e rie n ce d an d in terp rete d. Su m m a rised E v en ts. A m e m o ry fo r a su m m arise d e ve n t re fers to a class o f ev e n ts o f th e sa m e k ind , reflec te d in ph rase s suc h a s ``I w atc he d T V a lot’ ’ o r ``I u sua lly ate lu nc h w ith m y d ad ’ ’ B a rsa lou (19 8 8 ) fo u nd th a t m ost of th e statem en ts in th e ve rb a l re p orts o f pe o p le w ho w e re sto p p ed o n th e ca m pu s o f E m o ry U n iv ersity d u ring a n au tu m n se m e ste r (a nd w h o ag re ed to rela te th eir ex p e rie n ce s fro m th e p a st su m m e r) w e re in th e fo rm of sum m a rised e v en ts. T h e
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pro m in e n ce o f sum m arised ev e n ts in th ese re p o rts su gg e sts th eir im p ortan t role in b e in g a b le to efficie ntly co m m u n ica te to o the rs (an d p e rh a p s to efficie ntly re m e m b er on e se lf) th e sp e cific s o f w h at ha p p en e d d u rin g o n e’ s p e rso n al p ast. In C o n w a y’ s (C o n w a y, 19 9 2 , 1 9 96 ; C o n w ay & R u b in , 1 9 9 3) m o d e l (see F ig. 1), sum m arised e v en ts to g e the r w ith the sh o rte r-te rm e x te n d ed e v en ts (w hic h are no t lifetim e p e rio d s) be lon g to a cla ss o f m e m o ries d ep ictin g g en e ral ev e nts, w h ich a re c o n sid e red a b a sic lev e l o f rep rese n tation (se e R o sch , 1 9 7 8, reg a rdin g ba sic lev e l fo r c ate g orisa tio n ). A s a b asic le ve l o f rep rese n tation , su m m a rise d ev e nts are n o t too ge n era l, w h ich w o u ld lea d to a n ina b ility to c on v ey an y th in g spe c ific ab o u t th e p a st, n o r to o sp ec ific, in w h ic h th e flo w o f p a st e v en ts c ou ld no t b e a de q u ate ly e xp re ssed . S u m m a rise d e ve n ts a re a bstra ctio ns of th e ty p ica l a spe c ts o f sim ila r ev e nts, a n d th u s, b y th e m s e lv es , p ri m a rily re p re s e n t th e m a tic k n o w le d g e a b o u t r e c u r r i n g te m p o r a l p a t te r n s o f e x p e ri e n c e . L i n t o n ( 1 9 8 2 ) d i s c u s s e d a sum m arised ev e n t as a se m a n tic m e m o ry th at fo rm s in th e re pe tition o f tw o or m o re sim ila r e ve n ts, w ith th e e piso d ic in fo rm a tio n fo r an y o n e e v en t be c om in g lost a nd o n ly the ge n er alised in fo rm a tio n fro m th e se m a n tic m e m o ry be in g re tain ed . N e isse r (1 9 81 ) in tro d u c ed the term rep iso dic m em o ry to re fer to th e rep re sen ta tio n of re p ea ted e p iso d es , w ith th e id e a th a t re m e m b e re d de tails m a y re flec t in fo rm atio n in re piso dic m e m o ry a nd n o t b e v erid ic al c o nc e rnin g an y sp e cific e ve n t (a lth o ug h th e re m e m b e rer be lie v e s in th eir ve rid ic ality ). In th e w id e r p ictu re, th e te m p or al org a n isa tio n of e xte nd e d ev en ts is p e rm ea te d to sum m arised e ve n ts, as su m m a rise d ev e n ts a re n e ste d w ith in e xte nd e d ev e nts. F o r ex a m p le, a n u n de rg rad u ate ’ s su m m e r m a y b e re pre se nte d a s a n e xte nd e d ev e nt tha t ne sts sm a lle r e xte n d ed ev e nts su ch a s a n ea rly su m m er job , a pe riod o f va c atio nin g , a n d a la te r p e rio d o f stay ing at h om e w ith o n e’ s p a ren ts; ea c h o f th e sm a lle r e xte nd e d e ve n ts n est re p re se n ta tio n s o f su m m arise d ev e nts suc h a s lu n c he s w ith c o -w o rk e rs d u rin g th e jo b a n d e v en in g h ike s du rin g th e v ac atio n (B a rsalo u , 1 9 88 , p .2 2 5 ). S p e cific e ve n ts. A t th e b o tto m o f the h iera rc h y are m e m o ries fo r sp ec ific ev e nts. R ic h ne ss of au to bio g ra p hic a l m e m o ry is g ain e d in th e rem em b e rin g o f spe c ific e v en ts, w h ich m a y c o n ta in p erc e p tu a l a nd c on te xtu al info rm ation tha t pro v id es a sen se o f re liv in g a p ast e v en t. E x te n d ed in tim e , spe cific e v en ts, su c h as ``tim e I m e t A n g e la’ ’ , ``saw a p la y ’ ’ , o r ``filled o u t an ap p lic atio n’ ’ , are be st ch a rac terised as b ein g c on tinu o u s in th eir tim e co u rse an d spa n nin g m inu tes u p to m a n y h o u rs. W ith in th e h iera rc h y , sp ec ific ev en ts m a y b e in de x e d b y ex te nd e d a n d/o r su m m a rised e ve n ts. In C o n w a y ’ s (1 99 2 , 1 99 6 ) m od e l (see F ig. 1 ), th e p erc ep tu al a nd co n te x tua l in fo rm a tio n (te rm e d as ev en t-sp ec ific kn o w le d g e) o f sp ec ific ev e n ts ex ists a s a n un d iffere ntiate d p o o l of im a g es a n d de tails. T h e se de tails b ec o m e org a n ise d du rin g th e re co n struc tiv e re m em be ring p roc e ss by a ttac h ing to th e th em atic a n d te m p o ra l kn o w le d g e stru ctu re s o f hig h er-o rd er e v en ts. In th is v ie w , a n y
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p artic u lar e p iso d ic d etail m ay b e re co n stru c te d w ithin th e bo u n ds o f m o re tha n o ne sp ec ific ev e nt. A nd e rso n a n d C o n w ay (19 9 3 ) ex p lore d th e o rg a n isa tio n o f e v en t-sp ec ific d etails w ith in sp e cific a u to b io g ra ph ica l m e m o ries, suc h as re m e m b er in g th e ``tim e I m et A ng e la’ ’ . T he y disc ov e red tha t c e rta in d istin ctive d eta ils (e.g . ``da n cin g w ith A n g ela ’ ’ ) e nc o ura g e d the rec o gn itio n o f a sp e cific m em ory as a w ho le, w h e rea s a g re ate r n u m b e r o f d eta ils co u ld be re m e m b ere d w h en p e op le rec alled ev e nts in fo rw a rd c hro n o lo g ic a l ord e r. T he se resu lts su g ge st tha t the m a tic a n d tem p ora l in fo rm ation w ill struc tu re sp e cific ep iso de s in m u ch th e sam e w a y as th ey are use d to stru ctu re th e h igh e r-or de r ex te nd e d a n d su m m a rised ev en ts. A s for rem em be ring spe c ific ev e nts, th e d istin ctiv e d etails are ind ice s to spe c ific m e m o ries fro m h ig he r-o rde r stru c tu re s, w h e rea s o nc e ind e xe d , th e c hro n o lo g ica l o rd e rin g o f d e ta ils aid s in rem em b erin g m o re o f w ha t h ad h ap p en e d .
Thematic and Temporal Pathways A s w e h a ve se en in th e p rev iou s se c tio n ou tlin in g ty p es o f a uto b io g rap h ica l m e m o ries, the m a tic a n d te m p o ra l k n ow le d ge se rve a s the b asic o rg a n isin g p rin cip les tha t u n de rlie a ll lev els of au to bio g rap h ic a l m e m o ry stru ctu res. F o r ex a m p le , e xte n de d a nd su m m a rise d e ve n ts are n este d w ith in h igh e r-o rd e r ex ten d e d e v en ts b o th th em atica lly (in refe re nc e to p a rtic ula r p e rs on s a nd ty p e s o f e ve n ts) a n d te m p o rally (in re fere n ce to b ein g p lac e d w ithin a p artic u lar p o in t in tim e on th e b a sis o f life role s an d th e seq u e n ce o f e v en ts). T ak e n a s a w ho le, the te m p o ra l a n d th em atic o rg an isa tio n of a u to b io g ra ph ica l kn o w led g e se rv es a s p oin ts o f a ssoc ia tio n a m o n g th e se v ario us m em ory ty p e s w ith in a ric h n e tw o rk o f re trie va l p ath w ay s th at co m prise th is k no w led g e . In an y p artic u la r retrie v al, h ow e v er, on ly so m e o f th e av a ila b le p ath w a y s are lik ely to b e use d . In de sc rib in g th e re trie va l o f a u to b io gra ph ic al m em o rie s, rese a rc h e rs h av e h ig h lig h ted o n e p ro ce ss a s b ein g top -d o w n in w h ic h th e th e m a tic an d te m p o ra l info rm a tio n o f h igh e r-o rd e r stru ctu re s c u e th e re m e m b e rin g o f m ore spe c ific info rm a tio n (B a rsalo u , 19 8 8 ; C o n w a y & B ek eria n, 19 8 7 ). In a dd itio n , h o w e v er, p eo p le n a v iga te th ro ug h a u to b iog ra p hic al k n o w le d g e in o th er w a y s, su c h a s w he n the y o rd e r a se q ue n c e o f ex te nd e d ev e nts, o r w h en th ey re triev e from p ara lle l e v en ts (B a rsa lo u , 1 9 88 ). T op -d ow n R e trie va l. In C o n w ay ’ s m o d el (A nd e rson & C o n w a y , 1 99 3 ; C on w a y, 1 9 9 6; C o n w a y & B ek e ria n , 1 9 8 7 ; C o n w ay & R u b in , 19 9 3 ), lifetim e p eriod s h o ld th e k e y in co n tain ing v ario us ty p e s o f the m a tic a nd te m p o ra l k no w led g e co n ce rn in g su ch thin g s a s p eo p le, asp iration s, an d sig n ific an t ev e nts. S u ch th em atic an d tem p or al k n o w le dg e , in a b roa d se n se, se rv es to in de x m a n y g en e ra l e v en ts tha t are a sso cia te d w ith p a rtic u la r life tim e pe rio d s. F o r ex a m p le, ``liv in g w ith `X ’ ’ ’ co n tain s th em atic a n d te m p o ra l info rm atio n a b o ut th e
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re latio nsh ip w ith `X ’ w h ic h w ill ind e x the m em ory fo r ``ho lida y in Ita ly w ith `X ’ ’ ’ . In a dd itio n , g en e ral e v en ts co n ta in th em atic an d te m p o ral in fo rm a tio n th a t ind e x es m e m o ries o f m o re sp e cific ev e nts, su ch as ``d in ne r w ith `X ’ o n o u r la st n igh t in R o m e ’ ’ . F urth er, th is m od e l co n side rs th is hie ra rc h ic al o rg an isa tio n as co n sistin g of a u to bio g ra ph ica l m em o ry o rg an iza tio n p a ck e ts (A -M O P s) tha t are tied to th e th e m a tic c o nte n ts o f sp ec ific life p e rio d s. T h u s, a lth ou g h o n e lifetim e p erio d (``livin g w ith `X ’ ’ ’ ) ca n b e c o nte m p o ran e o us w ith a n o th e r lifetim e pe rio d (``w h e n I w o rk e d a t `Y ’ ’ ’ ), the th e m a tic c o nte nts of the se re sp e ctive lifetim e pe rio d s w ou ld c o nsist of sep a rate A -M O P S th at w o u ld in de x th e ir o w n k ind s o f life e ve n ts. E v ide n ce tha t fa vo u rs top -d ow n retriev a l w ith in A - M O P s is p ro v ide d b y re sp on se -tim e stu d ies an d in th e an a lyse s of th e pro to co ls o f su b je c ts re trie vin g spe cific e v en ts. In o n e re sp on se -tim e stu d y, C o n w ay a n d B e ke rian (1 98 7 ) fou n d fa ste r re sp o n se tim e s in the retrie v al o f spe c ific e v en ts, w h ic h w ere cu e d b y ge n era l ev e nts, in a c o nd itio n in w h ich life tim e pe riod s w ere u se d a s p rim e s in co m pa rison to a no -p rim e c o nd itio n . F u rth e r, the y a lso fo u nd th at th e se h igh e rord e r a u to b io gra p hic a l m e m o ry p rim e s a n d cu es sp e ed e d re trie va l in c o m p ariso n to o th er ty pe s o f p rim e s a nd c u es th a t w ere b ase d o n sem an tic c a te g o rie s o r ac tiv itie s. T h ese re sults su pp o rt th e hy p o the sis tha t hig h er-o rde r a uto b io g rap h ica l m e m o ries fa cilita te th e re trie va l o f spe c ific e v en ts, a s p red ic te d by to p-d o w n re triev a l m o d e ls. In a n o th e r resp o n se-tim e stu d y, B row n (1 9 9 0; B ro w n, S h e ve ll, & R ip s, 19 8 6 ) d em o n stra te d th at th e re sp o nse tim e s fo r p olitic a l an d n o np o litica l pu b lic e v en ts w as de p en d e nt on w hic h c on tem p o ra n eo u s p e rio d s p eo p le h a d in m ind . S u bje cts w e re a sk ed to so rt p ub lic e v en ts e ith e r as o cc u rrin g in o n e of tw o U S P resid en tial a dm inistratio ns (C arter o r R e a ga n ), o r in on e o f tw o lifetim e pe rio ds (stud e nt in h ig h sc h oo l o r co lleg e ). S ub jec ts w e re se le cte d suc h th at the y w ere in hig h sch o o l du rin g th e C a rte r a dm inistratio n, a nd in co lle g e d u rin g th e R e ag a n ad m in istra tio n . B row n fo un d tha t p olitic al e ve n ts w e re so rte d m o re qu ic kly in to P re sid e n tia l ad m in istra tio n p erio ds th a n the y w e re sorted in to life tim e p e rio d s, b u t th at n on p o litica l e v en ts w ere so rte d m o re q u ic k ly into lifetim e th a n a d m inistratio n p erio ds. A lth o ug h ad d ressin g m o re dire ctly th e re la tio n sh ip b e tw e e n p ub lic a n d p erso n al e v en ts rath er tha n th e s tru c tu re o f a u to b io g ra p h i c a l m e m o ry p e r s e , B ro w n ’ s re su lts a re sug g es tiv e tha t life tim e p erio ds in de x d iffe ren t a sp ec ts o f th e a uto b io g rap h ica l m e m o ry ba se , c on sisten t w ith th e m o de l th a t a u to b iog ra ph ic al k no w led g e co n sists o f A -M O P s. V e rb al p ro to c ol a n aly ses are a lso su p p ortive o f to p±d o w n re trie v al. In o n e stu d y , C o n w a y (19 9 6 , see C o n w ay ’ s fig u re 3.3 ) p rese n te d su b jec ts w ith cu e w o rd s (e .g . c ha ir, re sta u ran t) w ith ex p lic it in struc tio n s to use th em in re trie vin g spe c ific ev e nts. P ro to co ls rev e ale d su b jec ts w ork in g th rou g h life tim e p erio ds an d g en e ral e ve n ts b efo re re p or tin g th e de tails o f sp ec ific ev e n ts. S im ila r resu lts w e re fou n d w ith su b jec ts ag ed in the ir la te 20 s o r e arly 3 0s w h o w e re a ske d to
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rep o rt d e ta ils of sp e cific e ve n ts th a t oc cu rred w h ile th ey w e re 1 8 y e ar s o ld (C o n w a y & B e k erian , 1 9 8 7 , p .1 3 1). Se q u en c in g a n d P a rallel R etriev a l. In ad d itio n to to p-d o w n retriev al, th ere are re triev a l stra teg ies th at in v olv e the c hro n o lo g ica l seq u e nc ing o f e ve n ts w ith in an d ac ro ss the m e s. T h e se re trie va l strate gie s ap p ea r to b ec o m e a pp a ren t w he n in d iv id ua ls are a sk ed to re p o rt o n the ir a u to b iog ra p hic al p a st fo r a n ex ten d e d p e rio d o f tim e , su ch a s in B arsa lo u ’ s (19 8 8 ) stu d y, w he n sub je cts w ere ask e d to re p o rt ab o u t th e p ast su m m e r. T h e to p -do w n p ro ce ssin g ob se rve d b y C on w a y (1 9 9 2, 1 99 6 ; C on w a y & B ek e ria n , 1 9 8 7 ) m a y b e m o re ap p ar en t w h e n ask in g a bo u t sin g le spe ci fic ep iso de s. T h u s, th e n atu re o f th e req u e st pro b ab ly affe cts the retriev a l strate g ie s th a t are em plo ye d . R e trie v als g o ve rne d b y th e re c all of c hro n o lo g ica l ev e nts c o m p le m en t C on w a y’ s (1 9 9 2, 1 9 9 6; C o n w ay & B e ke ria n , 19 8 7 ) e m p h asis th at th e m a tic co n ten t g o ve rn s a uto b io g rap h ica l retriev al. In B arsa lo u ’ s (1 98 8 ) stu dy , alth ou g h su bje cts w e re instru cte d to rec a ll e ve n ts o n the b asis o f w ha t first co m es to m in d, m o st p eo p le sta rte d th e ir re p orts a t th e b eg inn in g of th e su m m e r, w o rkin g ch ro n o lo g ic a lly thro u g h ex ten d ed e v en ts tha t o cc u rre d a t th e first p art o f th e su m m e r. A s B a rsalo u’ s su bje cts w ere like ly to b e asso c ia ted w ith E m o ry U niv er sity (th e y w e re re cru ite d on c am p us), th e bo u n da ry b etw ee n sp rin g an d su m m e r w ou ld b e a pa rtic u la rly n o ta b le tra n sition in d aily a ctiv ities w h ic h w ou ld co inc id e w ith th e be g in nin g o f su m m er (an d th e en d o f th e reg u lar sc ho o l term ). A s fo u n d in o the r w o rk , w hic h h as sh ow n th a t e ve n ts tha t o c cu r a t tra n sitio n p o ints a re m o re m em or ab le th an o the r e ve n ts (P ille m er, G o ld sm ith, P an ter, & W h ite, 1 98 8 ; R o b in so n , 19 8 6 ), su b je c ts be g in nin g the ir re po rts a t th e start of sum m e r inv o lve s th e u se o f th e m a tic info rm a tion a bo u t c ha n ge s in ac tiv itie s tha t are asso c ia ted to a tem po ra l lo ca tion . In a sim ilar v e in , M e an s, N ig a m , Z arro w , L o ftu s, an d D o n ald so n (1 98 9 ) fo u n d tha t sub jec ts’ free re c alls o f h e alth e ve n ts fo r th e pa st y e ar o fte n in c lu d ed th e ch ro n olo g ic a l o rd erin g o f ev e n ts th at pe rtain ed to th e sa m e he a lth co n d ition . T h u s, b oth th e th e m a tic info rm a tio n o f ty p e o f co n d ition an d th e c hro n o lo g ica l o rd e rin g o f e ve n ts w ere u sed in re m e m b e rin g the se p a st e v en ts. T h e tem p or al seq u en c ing o f e xte nd e d e v en ts as o bse rv ed b y B arsa lou (19 8 8 ) ind ica tes th e pre do m ina n c e o f a h o riz o nta l ra th er th an to p±d o w n p ro ce ss. Y e t, a s the re o ften w as a n in term ix in g o f su m m a rised a nd sp ec ific ev e n ts in sub je cts’ rep o rts, to p ±do w n p ro c essin g w a s also oc cu rrin g in th es e retriev a ls. In ad d itio n to se qu e nc in g , B a rsalo u o b serv e d th at sub jec ts a t tim e s fo llo w e d p a ralle l trac k s o f ev en ts in w h ic h o n e c hro n o lo g y o f e xte n de d e v en ts d ea lin g w ith o ne th e m e (e.g . pro jec t a t sc ho o l) w a s fo llow e d in th e p roto c o l b y a se c on d c h ron o lo gy tha t w as co n tem p ora n eo u s w ith the first b ut de alt w ith a d iffe re n t the m e (e.g . ac tiv itie s w ith fa m ily m e m b e rs). Sim ila rly , M ea n s e t a l. (1 9 89 ) fou n d th at w ork rela te d e v en ts w e re a t tim e s u se d a s ju n ctu res to re m e m b er h e alth e ve n ts. T h is jum pin g a c ro ss th e m a tic tra ck s sug g es ts an in terrela tio n sh ip am o n g th e m a tic a lly
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diffe re n t e xte n de d e v en ts th a t is n o t ca p ture d b y th e n otio n o f A -M O Ps, w h ich , in c o m p a riso n , c o n s id er s e x te n d e d e v e n ts as b e in g la rg e ly th e m a tic a lly en c ap su late d . B a rsalo u (19 8 8 ) co n te nd s th at th e ex ten d ed ev en ts b o th w ithin a n d ac ro ss th e m e s are in terrela ted b y th e log ic o f g o a l a tta in m e n t (se e F ig. 2 fo r a n illus tra tio n ). F o r e x am ple , w ith in a w o rk the m e , the a ctiv ities o f on e ’ s first jo b (e .g . A ssista n t Pro fesso r a t `X ’ ) m ay e n ab le on e to d e v elo p skills for a se co n d jo b (e.g . A sso c iate P ro fe ssor at `Y ’ ). A c ro ss th e m e s, o n e’ s first jo b (w o rk th e m e ) m a y b e w h e re o n e m ee ts on e ’ s spo u se (re la tio n sh ip th em e), o r losin g on e ’ s jo b m a y co n trib ute to a n ev e ntu al d ivo rc e. T h u s, th e lo g ic o f g o al a tta inm en t is ba se d o n th e a spira tio n s o f the se lf, a n d suc ce sse s a n d setb ac k s in m e e tin g the se
FIG. 2.
A n illu s tr ati o n o f B a rs a lo u ’ s (1 9 8 8 ) n o tio n th a t lo g i c o f g o a l a tt a in m en t st ru ct u re s in te rre la te e v e n ts b o th w i th in a n d a c ro s s e x t en d e d ev e n ts . C o p y rig h t Ó 1 9 8 8 b y C a m b rid g e U n iv e rs ity P re s s . R e p ri n t e d w ith p e rm is si o n .
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asp iratio ns. T h e im p o rtan c e o f go a l attain m e n t in au to bio g rap h ic a l m e m o ry is sh are d by C o nw a y (1 9 9 2, 1 9 96 ; C on w a y & R u b in , 1 99 3 ) w h o a rg ue s tha t a u t o b io g ra p h ic a l th e m e s e m e rg e fr o m c h a n g e s to th e s e lf -c o n c e p t a n d asp iratio ns a nd fea rs th a t su rrou n d c o n ce p tio n s o f p ossib le selv e s (c f. M ark u s & N u riu r, 1 9 8 6). In a v iv id d e m on stratio n o f g oa l attain m e n t, R o b ins on (19 9 2 ) fin d s tha t v erb a l re p orts o f first e x pe rien ce m em o rie s, su c h as th e first tim e on e d riv es a c ar o r the first ro m an tic rela tio n sh ip , are filled w ith d esc rip tio n s of h o w the se ev en ts h ad sh ap e d th e c o nc e p tio n of se lf. In c om b ina tio n w ith to p ±do w n re triev a l, th e n o tio n s o f se q ue n cin g an d p ara lle l re trie v al o utline the e xiste nc e of n u m e ro us in te rc o nn e cted th em atic an d tem po ra l p a th w a y s tha t ca n b e u se d to re m e m be r sp ec ific a uto b io g rap h ica l ev e n ts. A ltho u g h o n ly a sm a ll p o rtio n o f a v aila ble p a th w a ys w ill be use d in an y o ne re trie va l, e nc o u rag in g in d iv id u als to use th e cu es th a t are a va ila b le in m u ltip le, in terc o nn e cte d p a th w a y s in cr ea ses th e p o te n tia l o f m a x im isin g th e q ua lity a n d co m ple ten e ss o f rem em b e re d e v en ts. T h is p ote ntia l of im pro v in g th e q u a lity o f au to b io g ra p h ic a l re m e m b e rin g , th ro u g h th e e n co u r a g em e n t o f resp o n d en ts to e x am in e m o re fully th e in te rc o nn e c tio n s th at ex ist w ith in th eir au to bio g rap h ic a l ne tw o rk s, ha s y e t to b e fu lly a p pre cia ted b y su rv e y rese a rc h ers. T h e ne x t se c tio n w ill a d d re ss this issue m ore fu lly .
AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL MEMORY STRUCTURE AND SURVEYS T ra d ition a l sta n d ard ised su rve y inte rv ie w s th a t a sk fo r re tro sp ec tiv e re po rts co n sist o f a set of d isc rete q u e stio n s, u sua lly ab o u t sp e cific ev e nts, th at are sep a rate d by to p ic . T h e U n iv ersity of M ic hig an ’ s P a ne l S tu d y of In co m e D yn a m ics, a su rv e y o f fam ily e co n o m ics, in itially a sks qu e stio n s a b ou t h o usin g (e.g . ``H av e y ou m o ve d a n y tim e sin ce the sp ring o f 1 9 9 6? . . . W h a t m o n th an d y ea r w a s th at? ’ ’ ), th en sw itc he s to em p lo y m e n t (e.g . ``In w h a t m on th a nd y ea r d id y o u sta rt w o rkin g in y o ur p re sen t po sitio n ?’ ’ ), an d th e n a sk s q ue stion s a bo u t tim e a w a y fro m w o rk (e .g . ``D id y o u m iss a n y w o rk in 1 9 9 6 b ec au se yo u w ere sick ? . . . H ow m u ch w o rk d id yo u m iss? . . . W h e n w a s th at? . . .’ ’ ). A s an o th e r ex a m p le , the U niv e rsity of M ich ig an ’ s H ea lth F ield S tu d y , a surv ey b a sed o n th e N ation a l H ea lth In terv iew S urv e y, at o n e p o int a sk s ab o ut h o sp ita lisat io n s (e.g . ``Sin ce Ju ly 1 , 1 9 96 , ha v e y ou b e en a p atien t in a h o sp ita l ov e rn ig h t? . . . H o w m a n y d iffere nt tim e s d id yo u sta y in a ny h o spita l o v ern igh t o r lo n ge r sinc e Ju ly 1 , 1 9 96 ? . . .’ ’ ), th en a b ou t h e alth visits (e.g . ``H o w m a n y tim e s ha v e yo u g o ne to a ho sp ital e m e rge n c y roo m a bo u t y ou r o w n h e alth sinc e Ju ly 1, 1 9 96 ? . . . H o w m a n y tim e s h av e y o u se en or ta lke d to a m e dic al do c to r or assista nt a b o ut yo u r o w n h e alth a t a d o cto r’ s office o r at a n H M O sinc e July 1 , 1 9 9 6? . . .’ ’ ), the n ab o u t sp e cific h ea lth se rv ic es (e .g . ``H av e y o u ha d a teta nu s sh o t d u rin g th e pa st ten y e ars? ’ ’ ), a n d the n a b o ut in juries (``H o w m a n y in ju rie s, ac cid e n ts, o r p oiso n ing s h av e y ou h a d sin c e July 1 st, 1 99 6 th at req u ire d y o u to b e se e n by a m e d ic a l d o cto r o r a ssista nt? ’ ’ ).
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In te rm s o f th e stru ctu re of a u to bio gra p hic a l m em o ry , a n d m o re spe cifica lly , w ith reg a rd to the n um b er o f cu e s tha t ca n b e m ad e av a ila b le b y e n co u ra gin g m u ltip le re trie v al ro u tes, tra d itio n al su rv e y qu e stio n ing m e th o ds a re fo u n d w a n tin g . O n th e p o sitiv e sid e, su rv e y q u estio n n a ire s ge n era lly d o e n co u ra g e to p ±d ow n re triev al. A s surv e y re sea rch e rs a re a w a re o f th e n e ed to o rd e r qu e stio n s in w ay s th a t fac ilitate sm oo th tran sitio n s a nd op tim ise flo w (S u d m a n & B ra d bu rn , 1 9 8 2), in m o st c ase s the ge n era l c o nte x t is in tro d u ce d be fo re m o re spe c ific qu e stio n s a re ask e d . M o re n eg a tiv e ly , ho w e ve r, th ere is little o r n o en c ou ra g em en t for se q ue n cin g an d p ara lle l re trie v al. S e q ue n cin g is e n co u rag e d in situ atio ns tha t a sk fo r th e rem em b erin g o f e x te n de d e v en ts, a nd altho u g h surv e y qu e stio n s at tim es d o a pp e ar in te re ste d in su ch e v en ts (n o te th e q u estio n s on tim e o ff fro m w o rk an d ho sp italisa tion s q u ote d e arlier), th e ir inte nt a pp e ars to fo c u s m o re o n d iscre te p oin ts in tim e rath er th an o n a c o n tin uo u s stre a m o f ev e nts. W o rse still is th e to ta l lac k of e n co u ra ge m e n t fo r p a ra llel retriev a l, tha t is, th e re m e m b er in g o f in terc o n ne c te d a sp ec ts o f on e ’ s p e rs on a l p ast tha t asso c iate th e m e s to o n e a n oth e r. A s su rv e y qu e stio n n aires ty p ic a lly m o v e fro m to p ic to to p ic , resp o nd en ts are e n co u rag e d to seg m en t th eir p ath s in to un its tha t are larg ely u n re late d to o n e an o the r. T a ke n tog e the r, th e la ck of u se o f cu es a v a il a b le in th e st ru c t u re o f a u to b io g r a p h ic a l m e m o ry m a y b e la rg e ly re sp o n sib le fo r th e e rrors th a t h a v e b e en se en in resp o n d en ts’ attem p ts to rep o rt w h a t, w h en , a n d h o w o fte n e v en ts ha v e ha p pe n ed .
Event History Calendars A diffe re n t ap p roa ch to ask in g surv e y qu e stio n s inv o lv e s th e u se o f ev en t h isto ry c a le n d a rs , w h ic h h a v e c o n s id e ra b le p o te n t ial in u tilis in g th e to p - d o w n , seq u e ntial, an d pa rallel c u es tha t a re av a ila b le in the stru ctu re o f a uto bio g rap h ica l m e m o ry . In co n tra st to tra d itio na l su rve y q u estio n s tha t e m p h asise ev e nts a s d iscre te o cc u rren c es, w ith the e v en t h isto ry c a len d ar, resp o nd e n ts are en c ou ra g ed to c o nsid er v a rio u s e ve n ts th at co n stitu te th eir p erso n al p asts a s co n tain ed w ithin b roa d e r th e m a tic strea m s o f ev en ts. N ot o n ly ca n resp o n de n ts no te th e inte rrela tio nsh ip o f ev e nts w ith in th e sam e th e m e s (top -d ow n a n d seq u e ntial retriev al) b ut, d e pe n d in g on w hic h th e m e s a re re pre se nte d b y th e ca len d ar, resp o n d en ts c an a lso n ote th e in te rrela tio n sh ip s a m o n g e ve n ts tha t ex ist w ithin d iffe ren t th e m e s (p a rallel retriev a l). P io n ee red b y rese a rc h e rs inte re ste d in life h isto ries (e.g . Fre ed m a n et al., 19 8 8 ), th e u se o f e v en t h isto ry c alen d a rs h as b e en ba se d o n th e n otion th a t life histor ie s c on sist o f tra jec to rie s a nd tra n sitio ns (E lde r, 1 9 8 5 ). L ife tra jec torie s are lon g -term ex ten d e d pa tte rn s tha t refle ct m ajo r do m ain s su ch a s w o rk , liv in g arra n ge m e n ts, an d re latio n sh ips, a n d a s suc h a re c on c e ptu ally sim ilar to the m es as d iscu sse d in the litera ture on a u to b iog ra ph ica l m e m o ry . T ran sitio n s are em b ed d ed w ith in tra je c to ries a n d re pre se nt p o in ts in tim e in w h ic h a bru p t ch a ng e s oc cu r, su c h a s g e ttin g m a rrie d or d iv o rce d , or fin d in g th a t first job .
EVENT HISTORY CALENDARS
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T ra n sitio ns a re th e refo re be g inn in g a n d en d p oin ts o f lifetim e p e riod s o r o the r sign ific a nt ex ten d ed ev e nts. In a dd ition , the d y na m ic a sp ec t o f th e life c ou rse ev o lve s a s a n in terp la y am o ng traje cto rie s a n d th e ir tran sition s, w h ic h are inte rd e p en d en t o n on e an o the r. A g a in , th is in terd e pe n de n c e is reflec te d in au to bio g rap h ic a l m em ory as th e in te rrela tio n sh ip a m o n g th em atic ally d iffe ren t ex ten d e d e v en ts. E v e nt history c ale n d ars, th e n , w e re first d ev e lo pe d a s a tte m p ts to assist resp o n d en ts in rec a lling th eir dy n am ic p a sts. C o n sid er th e life histo ry c ale nd a r o f F re ed m an e t al. (1 9 88 ). A s d e pic te d in F ig . 3 , th is c a le n da r p rese n te d fiv e the m e s th at e x am in e d p la c es of re side n c e, p erso n s resid in g w ith an d th eir rela tio ns hip s, sc h oo lin g, w o rk , a n d m ilitary serv ice . E a ch the m e w as re p rese n te d b y its o w n rele va n t tim e lin e s tha t co v ere d a 1 0 -ye a r p e rio d . R e spo n d en ts w ere ask e d to re po rt th e m o n th a nd y ea r o f all e ve n ts in clu din g c erta in sp ec ific e v en ts (e.g . birth s o f o ffsprin g ) a nd th e be g in nin g a n d e nd p o in ts of ex ten d e d e ve n ts (e.g . m a rria g es, co h a bita tio ns). S u pe rfic ially , the life h isto ry ca le n d ar m irro rs the k ind s o f in form ation th a t w ill b e a v aila ble in th e rem em be rin g of lifetim e p eriod s, a s it re pre sen ts th o se the m e s th a t are like ly to b e sha re d b y m e m b e rs o f a c ultu re . M o re im p ortan tly , th e life histo ry ca len d ar e nc o u ra g e s a n e xte nsiv e u se o f th e a u to b io g ra ph ica l m e m o ry n e tw o rk an d th e m ultip le pa ths a ssoc ia te d w ith to p -d o w n , se q u en tia l, a nd p ara lle l re trie v al strateg ies. T o p -d o w n R e triev a l. O rg a n ise d b y th e m e s, th e life h isto ry c a le n d a r en c o ura g es top -d o w n retrie v al. F o r e x am p le , th e first tim elin e, d e aling w ith p la ce s o f re sid e n ce , e nc o u ra g e s re sp on d e nts to rep o rt in w h a t p lac es (e .g . c ities, tow n s) the y h av e liv ed (a nd w h e n), a task th at fo r m o st resp o nd e nt s is d o n e q u ite ea sily , p erh a ps b ec au se th e fo c u s is o n retrie v ing lifetim e p erio ds. A n o th e r tim elin e de a lin g w ith m a rita l e ve n ts a n d co h a bita tio n a sks fo r rep o rtin g o f th e p erso n s w ith w h ic h o n e is in v olv ed . A n o th e r ex a m p le th a t req u ire d m o re d eta iled in fo rm a tio n in v o lv e d the re p o rtin g o f w o rk h isto rie s, in w h ic h resp o n d en ts w ere a ske d to rep o rt o n th e n um b er of w e e kly h ou rs w o rk ed . T h e en c o ura g em en t o f to p-d o w n retriev al w ith the w o rk h isto ries w o u ld h av e b ee n en h a nc e d if, in a dd itio n to w ee k ly ho u rs, resp o nd e n ts h ad b e en a sk ed ex p lic itly to re po rt the ir lifetim e p erio ds re g ard in g th e p lac e s in w h ic h the y w ere w ork in g. T h e life tim e p erio ds co u ld se rve as a retrie v al c u e fo r re m e m b ering w e ek ly w o rk h ou rs. Se q u en c in g a n d P a ra lle l R e trie va l. In c om p arison to trad itio n a l sta nd a rd ise d su rv e y te c hn iq u es, th e life h isto ry c a le n da r e x ce ls in e nc o ur ag ing re triev a l thro u gh c u es o b tain e d b y na v iga tin g thro u g h se q u en tial pa th w ay s w ith in th e m e s an d p ara lle l p ath w a ys a cro ss th e m e s. A s ad m in istere d b y Fre ed m a n e t a l. (1 9 8 8), the life h isto ry ca len d ar em ph a sised se q ue n tia l retrie v al, as in terv iew e rs w ere instru cte d to e lic it th e c hro n olo g ica l re triev a l o f ev e nts w ith in th e first p rese nte d the m e (p lac es o f re side n c e), an d th en m ov e o n to oth er th e m e s in th e o rde r o f
FIG. 3.
T h e tru n ca t ed a n d re d u c e d re p ro d u c ti o n o f t h e lif e h i st o r y c a l en d ar u se d i n th e S tu d y o f A m e ri c an F a m ilies a n d d i sc u s se d b y F r ee d m a n et a l. (1 9 8 8 ). C o p y rig h t Ó 1 9 8 8 b y t h e A m e ri c an S o ci o l o g ic a l A s s o c ia t io n . R e p rin te d w it h p e rm is s io n .
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ap p ea ra nc e o n th e c ale nd a r. C h e ck s w e re m ad e to e n sure th at n o g ap s oc c urre d in th e re p orting o f e v en ts. A s fo r p a ra llel re trie v al, resp o n d en ts m ay h av e spo n tan e o us ly c oo rd ina ted re sp o nse s fro m th o se tim e lin e s th at h a d alrea d y b ee n an sw e red to th os e re sp o nse s g iv en in th e la ter sta g es o f the in te rv iew . In fac e-to fa c e inte rv ie w in g , th e visu al pre se nta tio n o f e ac h th em e a lo n g th e sa m e tim e dim e n sio ns fa cilita ted e xa m in in g p a ra lle l tra ck s o f ev e n ts. M e m ory re sea rch e rs (B a rsalo u , 1 98 8 ; N e iss er, 1 9 8 8) h av e no ted tha t spa tia l p e rc e p tio n s a n d m e ta p h ors a re u sed to rep re se nt tim e (e.g . ``th o se d ay s a re b eh ind m e’ ’ ) a n d th e c a le n da r’ s spa tia l re p re se n ta tio n of tim e pro v id ed a cle ar m e an s to e xa m in e th o se e v en ts tha t w ere re p o rte d to h av e oc c urre d ea rlie r, at the sa m e tim e , a n d la ter tha n o th e r e v en ts. T h us, fo r ex a m p le , re sp o n de n ts w h o w e n t to w ork p arttim e fo llo w in g th e b irth o f a ch ild c o u ld see w h eth er th ey ha d a pp ro p ria te ly c o o rd i n a te d th es e e v e n ts in th e ir re p o rts . A d d itio n a lly , in te r v ie w e r s, in ex a m in in g re p orts fo r in co n sisten cie s, co u ld q ue ry re spo n d en ts a b ou t th e ac cu ra c y of a cro ss-th em e re p o rts th a t a p p ea red o u t o f th e o rdin a ry . F o r ex am p le, a re sp o n de n t w ho re p o rte d b o th w o rk in g a n d g o in g to sc ho o l fu ll-tim e at th e sam e tim e co u ld b e ask e d to clarify th e ac cu ra cy o f th e se resp o n se s. B a rsalo u ’ s (19 8 8 ) n otion re g ard ing th e lo g ic o f g oa l a tta inm e n t ca ptu re s th e in terrela tio n sh ip o f e x te n d ed ev e nts b oth w ith in a nd ac ro ss th em es d u e to th e lo g ic a l a sso cia tio n of o n e e x te n de d ev e nt (e.g . b irth an d in fa nc y of `X ’ ) w ith o th er ex ten d e d ev e n ts tha t a re e ith er co n tem p ora n eo u s (e .g . w o rk in g pa rt-tim e at `Y ’ ) or tha t o c cu r la te r (e .g . `X ’ a tte nd s `Y ’ e lem en tary sch o o l). T h u s, th e lo g ic o f g o al a tta in m en t, a v ailab le in b o th se q ue n tia l an d p ara lle l re triev a l, pro v id es in form atio n reg a rd in g th e rela tiv e tem po ra l ord e rin g o f ev e nts. R e c on stru ctive m od e ls of e v en t d atin g a re ba se d o n the n o tio n th a t th e co n ten ts o f re m e m b er ed e x p erien c es co n tain c lue s re g ard ing w h e n th ey h a d oc c urre d (F rie d m an , 1 99 3 ; T ho m p son , S k o w ro n sk i, L a rse n , & B e tz, 1 9 96 ). T h e se re co n stru c tiv e m o d els are sup p o rte d by ev id en c e th at g re a te r p re c isio n in d a tin g p ast e ve n ts oc c urs fo r m em orie s in w h ich th ere ex ists a g re a te r de g ree o f c on te nt o r m em or ab ility (B a rtle tt & S n elu s, 1 98 0 ; B ro w n e t al., 19 8 5 ; T h o m p so n e t al., 1 98 8 ). T h e tem po ra l seq u en c ing o f ev e nts a sso cia te d by th e lo g ic o f g o al attain m e n t ca n also serv e a s in fo rm a tio n tha t w ill fa c ilitate th e attain m en t o f a m o re p rec ise rec o n stru c tio n o f w h e n e v en ts h a d ha p pe n e d. A d d itio n ally , th e m u ltip le cu e s g en e ra te d in ev e n t h isto ry ca le nd a rs ca n p ro m o te the re m e m b e ring of oth erw ise fo rg otten ev e nts th a t w ill a ffec t th e a c cu r a cy a n d c o m p le te n e ss in r ep o r tin g w h a t e v e n ts h a d h a p p e n e d (A nd e rson & P ic he rt, 1 9 7 8; F ish e r & Q u ig le y , 1 9 9 2 ). F in ally , th e rep o rtin g o f h o w o f t e n e v e n ts h a d o c c u rr e d t ra n s p ir e s i n d ir e c tl y fr o m r e s p o n d e n t s re m e m b ering w h a t ha d h ap p en e d ac ro ss the re ca ll p e rio d d em a rc a te d b y th e tim e line s, a n d in w h ich th e nu m b er of e ve n ts p e r u n it tim e c a n b e e stab lish e d b y th e r e s e a r c h e r a ft e r th e d a t a a r e c o l l e c te d . G a in in g ` ` h o w - o f t e n ’ ’ in fo rm a tio n th ro ug h th e ev e n t h istory ca le nd a r co n trasts w ith trad itio n a l surv e y qu e stio n s, w h ic h d ire ctly a sk for re po rts of th e n u m b e r of e ve n ts
EVENT HISTORY CALENDARS
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w ith in a g ive n re fere n ce p e rio d , a nd w hic h o ften p ro v id e a de a rth of cu e s to h elp re sp o n de n ts re m e m b e r th e o c cu rre nc e o f th ese ev e n ts. R e spo n se q u a lity . O f c o u rse , a rg um en ts c on c ern in g th e e ffic a cy o f e v en t h isto ry ca len d ars are v ac u o us un le ss the re is ev id en c e th a t th e ir use le ad s to ac c ura te re p or tin g of p a st ev e nts. F ree d m a n et a l. (1 9 88 ) w e re ab le to c om p are the retro spe c tiv e re p orts o f sc h o ol a tte nd a n ce an d w ee k ly w o rk h o u rs in the life h isto ry c alen d ar a ga inst a co n cu rre nt re p o rt ga the red w ith sta nd a rd in te rvie w in g tha t ha d ta ke n p la c e fiv e y ea rs ea rlie r. In e x am in in g th e sa m e m o n th o f the p rio r co n c urre n t re po rt, 8 7 % o f resp o n d en ts g av e id e n tic al an sw e rs to b oth inte rv ie w s reg a rd in g fu ll-tim e , pa rt-tim e , or n o sc ho o l a tten d a nc e . R e spo n d en ts retro sp ec tiv e ly rep o rted the m se lv es a s b ein g sligh tly b u sier in th eir e m p loy m e n t statu s in c om p ariso n to the c o nc u rren t re p ort. Ide n tic a l an sw er s reg a rdin g w ork in g fu ll-tim e , p art-tim e, o r n ot w ork in g w e re p rov id ed b y 7 2 % o f resp o n d en ts, w h ich im pro v ed to 8 3 % w he n c ollap sin g full- a nd p a rt-tim e w o rk. In a n o the r ap p lica tio n o f a life h isto ry c ale nd a r, C a sp i e t al. (1 9 9 6) fo u n d at lea st 9 0% a gre em e nt b etw ee n retro sp ec tiv e re p orts o f a c tiv itie s fo r a g iv en m o n th o n the life h istory ca le nd a r a n d c o nc u rren t rep o rts o b ta in ed th re e y e ars ea rlier w ith liv ing a rra n ge m en ts, c o ha b ita tio n , sc ho o ling , e m plo ym en t, a n d jo b tra in in g. T h e h ig h le v els o f a gre em e nt to th e m o n th in b o th o f the se ex a m p les of a life h isto ry c alen d ar g ain a d dition a l im p ac t w h e n o ne co n sid e rs th at th e resp o n de n ts in b oth stu d ie s w e re in e arly a d ulth oo d w h e n b e in g su rv ey e d . S pe c ific ally, F ree d m a n et al.’ s (1 9 8 8) fiv e-y ea r re tro sp ec tiv e re p o rt in v olv ed 2 3 -ye a r-o ld resp o n d en ts re po rtin g o n e v en ts tha t h a d o cc urre d w h ile the y w e re 18 y e ar s o ld ; C asp i et a l.’ s (1 99 6 ) re sp o n d en ts w ere 2 1 y ea rs o ld w h e n th e y pro v ide d retro sp ec tiv e rep o rts o f e ve n ts tha t h a pp e n ed w h e n th ey w e re 18 y ea rs o ld. Y ou n g ad u lth o o d is m a rke d b y a n u m b e r of tran sitio n s in life ev en ts, a n d le ve ls o f a g ree m e n t a re lik ely to h av e be e n c o m p rom ised b y th is flu idity . H ow e v e r, the re c an n o t b e c e rta in ty th at the ev e nt h isto ry ca le n da r m e tho d o log y im p ro v e s the q u ality o f re tro spe c tiv e rep o rts in co m p a riso n to o the r su rv ey in g tec h niq u es, as no su c h dire ct c o m p ariso n s h av e b ee n m a d e. N ev e rth e le ss, in c o m p arin g ind irec tly th e h ig h le ve ls o f ag re em en t rep o rte d w ith th e u se o f ev e nt h isto ry ca len d ar s for re ten tio n in terv a ls of se v era l y ea rs (C asp i e t a l., 1 9 9 6; F re ed m an e t al., 1 9 88 ) a ga in st th e lac k of re p orting w ith tra ditio na l surv e y q ue stio n s o f ev e n ts a t th e sa m e or g re a ter lev els o f d istin c tiv e ne ss afte r a on e -y e ar re te n tio n inte rv a l (C an n e ll et a l., 1 9 65 ; C a sh & M o ss, 1 9 72 ), the ev e n t h isto ry c ale nd a r m e tho d o log y g iv e s th e stro n g im p re ssio n th a t its u se p ro m o te s the a b ility o f resp o n d en ts to a cc u ra tely pe e r fu rth e r ba c k in to th eir p erso n al p asts. P o ten tial A p plic ation s. F o r th e m o st p a rt, e ve n t h isto ry ca len d ar s h av e b ee n u sed in situ atio n s in w hic h re spo n d en ts w e re ask e d to rep o rt o n m a jo r life ev e n ts (C a spi e t a l., 1 9 9 6 ; F re ed m an e t al., 19 8 8 ; F u rsten b e rg , B ro o k s-G un n , & M org a n , 1 98 7 ; K essler & W e thin g to n , 1 9 9 1; L y ke tsos e t al., 1 99 4 ) su ch a s
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re side n c e c h an g e s, m a rriag e s an d co h a bita tio n, b irth s an d d ea ths, em p lo y m en t an d sc h oo lin g c ha n ge s, fe lo n y c rim e s, an d p e rio d s o f se riou s p hy sic al a n d m e n ta l illne sse s. In p rinc iple , p o te n tia lly les s distinc tiv e ev e nts su c h as h e alth visits to p hy sic ia n s, ch a ng e s in d a y-c a re arran g em e n ts for ch ild re n , a n d co n sum e r p u rch a ses c an also b e m e asu re d u sing ev e n t h isto ry c ale n da rs. O f co u rse, w ith m un d a ne e v en ts, th e le n gth o f tim e u se d to g a th e r retro spe c tiv e re p o rts w ill n e ed to b e ad ju sted to re fle ct w h a t p ote n tia lly c an be re co v e ra b le, a n d th is d e p e n d s o n th e d e g r e e to w h ic h th e e v e n ts o f in te r e st l a c k distinc tiv e n ess. F o r m u n d an e c on su m e r p u rch a se s, su c h as visits to re stau ra n ts, a re ca ll p e riod o f a fe w m o n th s o r so m a y be rea so n ab le , b u t n o t m u ch b ey o n d th is. In a d dition to rec a ll p e rio d s, th e u nits o f m e asu re m e n t ne e d to b e co n side red . W ith v e ry le ng thy re ca ll p e rio d s, su c h as a p eriod o f m a n y y e ars w ith life h isto ry ca len d ars, usin g m o nth s as th e u nit of m ea su rem en t is rea so n ab le . W ith sh orte r re c a ll p eriod s, p erh ap s o n e or a few y ea rs, w e e ks m a y a d eq u a te ly serv e a s u n its; da y s c an serv e a s o p tim al u n its w ith e ve n sh o rte r re ca ll pe riod s su c h a s a m on th or tw o . In su m m a ry , th e re is c o nsid e ra b le fle xib ility in u sin g e v en t h isto ry ca len d ars as th e le n g th o f re ca ll p eriod s a nd u nit siz es c an be ad ju ste d to m ee t th e de m a n ds o f th e kin d o f ev e nts tha t re sea rc he rs a re in te re ste d in m e asu ring . A n im p ortan t c o nsid er ation in th e use of e v en t h isto ry c ale n da rs is w h e th e r th e re are m ultip le tim eline s, e ac h refle ctin g an a u to b iog ra p hic al th em e, th a t are a p p ro p ria te to u se a n d w h i c h w ill e n c o u ra g e r e trie v a l o f in st a n c e s o f in terd e p en d e nc e a m o n g th e se th em es. A s h a s be e n n o ted , th e stru ctu re o f au to bio g ra p h ica l m e m o ry c an b e c on sid ere d as re flec tin g m an y h iera rc h ica l la y e rs o f e x te n de d e v en ts tha t a re n e ste d w ith in on e a no th e r, all a dh e ren ts w ith in th e sam e th em e (e.g . B arsa lo u , 1 9 88 ). In a dd itio n , the re a re a n u m b e r of the m e s, ea ch w ith its o w n h iera rch ic al stru ctu re , w h ich also c o nta in p oin ts o f a sso cia tio n w ith the h iera rch ies of o th er th em es . T hu s, the m e s w ill b e reflec te d in v ario us le v e ls o f th e h ie ra rch y , a n d o n e ne ed no t u se o n ly hig h -ord e r tim eline s (e .g . see k in g to e x am in e lifetim e the m e s in lo n g-te rm rela tio n sh ip s su ch as ``livin g w ith `X ’ ’ ’ ) in o rd e r to be n efit fro m th em e in te rd ep e nd e n ce . In stea d , a re sea rch e r ca n restrict p en e tra tio n to lo w e r-le ve l ev e nts th a t c an be refle cte d in sh orte r tim e line s (e.g . `` `X ’ s infa n cy ’ ’ ). A s o n e e xa m p le , c on side r h ea lth e ve n ts. R e sea rc he rs ha v e o ften b ee n in tere sted in h ea lth u tilisatio n an d g ain in g a cc u ra te re p o rts o f su ch e v en ts a s ho sp italisa tion a n d visits to p h ysic ian s’ o ffic es. A lth o u gh n o t d ire ctly id en tifie d as a n a uto b io g rap h ica l th em e, th e statu s o f on e ’ s h e alth c ertain ly c an ha v e a s m u c h im pa c t in so m e p eo p le’ s liv e s a s th e ir re la tio n sh ips, liv ing a rran g em e n ts, an d w o rk h isto rie s. In te rm s o f e x te n de d ev e nts, e xte nd e d p e rio d s of illn ess, in jury re c u pe ration , an d h o sp ita lisa tio n s co u ld ad h e re to a he a lth statu s the m e , an d ea c h co u ld b e reflec ted in sep ar ate tim e line s. S p e cific e v en ts suc h a s surg e rie s a nd h e alth v isits a lso a re th em atica lly re la ted a uto b io g rap h ica l ev e nts.
EVENT HISTORY CALENDARS
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A s h e a lth v isits a re o fte n a sso c ia te d w ith o th e r h e a lth e v e n ts su c h a s h osp ita lisation s, in p ro v idin g tim e lin es fo r b o th typ e s of ev e n ts resp o n de n ts ca n be en c ou ra ge d to co o rdin a te w h e n ea ch typ e o f ev e nt h ad oc c ur re d . In term s o f o th e r the m e s, tim e o ff fro m w o rk , a nd ca re of c h ild re n ca n b e affe cte d by th e statu s of o n e’ s h ea lth . In c on stru ctin g a n e v en t h isto ry c a le n da r, in te re st in g ain in g ac c ura te in fo rm a tion o n ra the r m u n da n e e v en ts su ch as h ea lth v isits w ill ind ica te th e u se o f re c all p e rio d s of fairly sh o rt d u ration (a y e ar or tw o). N ev e rth e le ss, th e re is co n sid era ble o pp o rtu nity to see k m u ltip le cu e s fro m th e o nse t an d reso lutio n o f a n um be r o f d iffere n t e xte n d ed an d sp ec ific e ve n ts in rec o nstru c tin g h ea lth -rela te d ev e nts usin g an e v en t h isto ry ca len d ar m e th o d o lo g y .
Enhancements to Event History Calendars T h e re is n o d o u b t th at the e ffic ac y o f e v en t h isto ry c a len d ars c an b e en h an c e d b y furth er d ev elo p m e n t. T w o p articu la r m e tho d s sh o w th e g rea test po ten tia l, usin g lan d m a rk s to a id the da tin g o f p ast e v en ts, a nd en c o ura g in g pa ra lle l retrie v al. B oth m eth o ds rely o n a m ore e x te n sive u se o f te m p o ral a n d the m a tic c u es tha t w ou ld oth erw ise b e u sed o nly spo n ta ne o usly a nd e rra tic a lly by resp o n d en ts. L an d m a rks. Pa rticu lar lan d m a rk e v en ts are so n ote w orth y th at resp o n de n ts are a b le to lo ca te the se e ve n ts e ith er ex a ctly o r n ea rly ex a ctly in tim e, a n d the y ca n b e u se d a s an ch o rs to lo c a te w h en o the r e ve n ts ha p p en e d (L o ftu s & M arb u rge r, 1 9 8 3). M ea n s et al. (19 8 9 ) n o ted the sp o n ta n eo u s u se of lan d m ark s in th e d a tin g o f h ea lth e v en ts in a p ilo t stud y w ith v o lun te er sub je cts. T h e au th ors n o te (1 9 89 , p.2 5 ) th at lan d m a rk e v en ts su ch a s ``h o lid a ys , w ed d ing s, p artie s, job c h an g e s, a n d m a jo r h e alth ev e nts’ ’ w e re u se d to da te h ea lth v isits fo r a 1 2 -m o nth pe rio d . T he re is n o d o ub t th a t in the u se o f e v en t histo ry ca len d ars, resp o n d en ts sp o nta n eo u sly g en e ra te the ir o w n la n d m a rks. H o w ev e r, re c all q ua lity is lik e ly to b e e n h an c ed if, in the a d m in istratio n of th e ca len d ar, lan d m a rk s a re syste m a tic a lly in tro d u ce d . A s o n e ex a m p le , in th e u se o f a 1 2 m o n th e v en ts h isto ry c a le n da r, K e ssler a nd W e thin g ton (1 99 1 ) u sed h o lid ay s a s p re -ind ic ate d lan d m a rk s an d fou n d h ig h reliab ilities in e v en t rep o rtin g b etw ee n sp ou se s. Im p orta ntly , th e use o f la n d m a rks ap p ea rs n o t on ly to assist in e v en t d atin g, b ut a lso to im pro v e th e a b ility to re m e m b e r w ha t h ap p e n ed , an d h o w ofte n , b y assistin g in th e d ise nta ng lin g o f sum m a rise d ev e n ts. A s a b strac tio n s of re pe a te d ev e n ts, su m m arise d e v en ts a re o ften c ha ra cte rise d as b e in g b len d ed re p re se n ta tio n s o f sp ec ific e v en ts, in w h ic h a ny distinc tiv e e piso d ic in form atio n th a t ca n d isting u ish on e p a rticu la r ep iso de fro m a n o th e r is n ot re ta ine d (L in to n, 1 98 2 ; M ea n s & L o ftu s, 1 9 91 ; M e an s et a l., 19 8 9 ). In this m a nn e r, su m m a rised ev e nts, alth ou g h im p o rta n t in th at th e ir rec all p ro m o te s a n u nd e rstan d in g of th e
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co n siste n cie s tha t p re se nt th em se lv e s in o u r w orld , a re se en as b ein g the b a ne o f surv e y rese arc h ers. F or e x am p le , M e an s e t al. (1 9 89 ; M ea n s & L o ftu s, 19 9 1 ) no te d th at re cu rre nt h e alth v isits fo r th e sa m e h ea lth p ro ble m , w hic h are lik e ly to be re p re se n te d a s su m m a rise d e ve n ts, w e re re c alled le ss w e ll th a n no n -rec u rren t he a lth v isits. H o w ev e r, a stu d y co n d itio n th a t inc lud e d a ssistin g resp o n d en ts to ge n era te p ers on a lly m e an in gfu l la n dm a rks a lo n g a 1 2 -m o nth ca len d ar led to a n in c re a se d ab ility a m o n g resp o n d en ts to rem em b e r d istinc tive e p iso d ic in fo rm a tio n w ith re cu rre nt v isits, im p ro v in g th e ac c ura cy o f resp o nse . In assisting resp o n d en ts to use la n dm a rks, re se arc he rs sh ou ld n o te tha t la n d m a rks c a n b e c yc lic o r lin e ar in n atu re (T h om p son e t al., 1 9 96 ). C y c lic la n d m a rks are th o se tha t re p ea t a fte r c ertain in terv a ls o f tim e, su c h a s a y e ar. A n n u a l ce leb ra tio n s su ch a s h o lid ay s, b irth d ay s, a n d an n iv ersa rie s a re ex a m ple s of c y clic la n dm a rks w h o se da tes w ill o fte n b e k no w n . L ine a r la n d m a rks, o n th e oth e r h an d , a re on e -tim e oc c ur re n ce s. P erso n s m a y re m e m b e r su c h n o te w orth y da te s a s w h e n the y le ft for a E u ro p ea n v a ca tion , o r d a te s in w h ich resid en c e m o v es w ere m a de . F irs t ex p e rie n ce s ca n a lso p ro v ide lin ea r la n dm a rks, su ch a s th e d a te th at on e e nte red a ne w jo b, th e tim e th a t o ne first d rov e a c ar alo n e, o r th e o cc u rre n c e o f n a tu ral d isaste rs (P illem e r e t al., 1 9 88 ; R o bin so n, 1 99 2 ). B irth , d e ath s , a n d m a rr ia g e s a re lin e ar la n d m a rk s, a lth o u g h th e ir la t er a n n u a l re m e m b ra n ce s a re c yc lic la nd m a rk s. F in ally , rese a rc h ers m ay a lso w a n t to re m in d resp o n de n ts a b ou t sea so n al ch a ng e s th a t m ay b e a sso cia te d w ith th eir life ro u tine s, suc h a s a ca de m ic c a le n da rs (a utu m n se m este r, sp rin g se m e ster, sum m er) tha t p rov ide in form a tio n on d istin c tiv e pe rio d s o f a ctiv ity (R o b in son , 19 8 6 ). W h eth e r o ne en c ou ra ge s th e u se o f c y clic lan d m a rk s m a y de p en d o n th e le n g th o f re ca ll. C y clic la nd m a rk s a re lik e ly to lo se th e ir distinc tiv e n ess a s re c all pe rio d s in clu de m ore c yc les. S ca le e ffe c ts in au tob io g ra p h ic a l re ca ll in d ic ate tha t pe o ple w ill at tim e s be b e tte r ab le to lo c ate an e v en t o n sm a lle r tim e sca les (e .g . m o n th o f o cc u rren c e) th an o n larg er tim e sc ales (e.g . ye a r o f o c cu rre nc e ; se e F rie d m a n, 19 9 3 ). T h u s, a lth o ug h a c y clic lan d m a rk su c h a s a h o lid ay m a y h elp re sp o n de n ts loc a te in w h ich m o nth an e v en t o c cu rred , c on fu sio n m a y a rise a s to w h ich y e ar, a s th e c y clic la nd m ark d oe s no t pro v ide an y d istinc tive in fo rm a tio n co n ce rn in g th e ye a r. T h us, it m a y b e b est to fo cu s o n lin e ar la n dm a rk s fo r lo ng e r re c a ll pe riod s. P a ra lle l R etriev a l. T h e e ffe ctiv en e ss o f la n d m a rks la rge ly de p en d s o n the ir effe ctive n ess in c on ju rin g u p a sso cia te d info rm a tio n tha t re side s in oth er th em es or d o m a ins of o n e ’ s au tob iog ra p hic al e x pe rie n c e. F or e x am p le , o n e m a y b e a ble to re co n struc t th at n o tifica tion o f a life -th re ate n in g d ise ase c am e sh o rtly b efo re th e c ele bra tio n o f o ne ’ s c h ild ’ s b irth d ay b e ca u se th e b irth da y c e le b ratio n h a d be e n so m e w h at ta inte d b y th e n ew s. S im ilar ly , the rem em bra n c es o f e ve n ts in on e p artic u lar the m e m ay c o nju re u p rem em b ra n c es in o th e r th e m e s, b o th in te rm s o f w ha t ev e nts h ap p e n ed an d w he n . A ltho u g h re sp on d e nts a re lik e ly to
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en g a ge in p ara lle l retrie v al sp o n tan e ou sly, th e q u ality o f re p ort m ay b e e ve n m o re en h a nc e d b y stru c tu ring th e in te rv ie w in g to e n co u rag e the use o f p a ra lle l retrie v al. S tru ctu ring th e oc c ur re n ce o f p a ra lle l retrie va l m a y b e ac c om plish ed e ith e r follo w in g or d u rin g the co m p le tio n o f th e c ale nd a r. E nc o ur ag ing p a ra lle l retrie v al c a n be d o n e b y e ng a g ing th e re sp on de n t in a c alen d a r rev iew in w h ic h the oc c ur re n ce an d tim in g o f e v en ts in th e v ario u s th e m e s c a n b e cro ss-c he ck e d ag a in st ea c h o th er, a n d m o difica tio n s to th e c ale nd a r en trie s ca n ac co m pa n y an y ad d itio n s o r ch a ng e s tha t the re spo n d en t m a y su g ge st (K essle r & W eth in g to n, 1 99 1 ). P a ra llel retriev a l c a n a lso b e en c o ura g ed b y direc tly fo c usin g th e resp o n d en ts’ a tte ntio n o n th e th em es an sw e red first in th e c ale n da r w h ile the y are w o rk in g o n th o se th em es p re se n ted la ter in th e in terv iew (F ric ke , S y ed , & S m ith, 19 8 6 ). T o be m o st e ffe c tiv e in th e u se o f th is strate gy (an d also to en c o ura g e sp o n tan eo u s p ara lle l re trie v al), th e th em es pre se nte d first m u st b e o ne s tha t a re like ly to be relate d to sub se q ue n t th em es. F ree d m a n e t al. (19 8 8 ) h ad the ir first tim elin e d ev o ted to c h an g e s in re sid e n ce . N o t on ly is th is tim e lin e o ne th at is relativ ely e asy fo r resp o n de n ts to a n sw er, an d o ne th at w ill a ssist in m o tiv a tin g th e re sp on d e nt to p ro vid e re sp on se s fo r o th e r tim e lin e s, b u t p lac es o f resid en c e is a lso in terre late d w ith o th er th e m e s su c h a s the relatio ns hip s th at on e h as h ad a n d th e w o rk a rran g em e nts th at ex ist ac ross th e re ca ll p erio d . A s a fin al th o u g ht, g iv e n th at au to b io g rap h ic a l k n o w le d ge is d ep e nd e n t o n co n c ep tion s o f the se lf, re se arc h ers m ay b e ab le to c ap ita lise o n the se selfco n c ep tion s w h ile e nc o u rag ing p a rallel re trie v al. P ro v id in g resp o n de n ts w ith lab els o f th e ro le s th a t the y ha d a ssu m e d d u rin g differ en t p e rio d s o f th e ir liv e s m a y se rv e as cu e s re g ard ing th e v a rio u s in terrela tio n sh ip s am o ng th e m e s. A s ex a m p le s, resp o nd e n ts m ay b e rem in de d o f w o rk -rela ted ev e nts tha t ha d o cc u rre d sh o rtly a fte r b e co m ing a pa ren t, or ch e ck s ca n b e m a d e tha t th eir b ec o m in g a su pe rv iso r a t w o rk w a s co n te m po ra ne o us w ith b e co m ing a sp o u se.
CONCLUSION R ec en t w o rk o n th e stru ctu re of a uto b io g rap h ica l m em or y su g ge sts th at th e rec all o f retro sp ec tiv e re po rts in surv e y s ca n b e im p rov e d b y usin g the m ultip le cu e s a n d p ath w ay s th a t a re a v aila ble w ith in th e a u to bio gra p hic a l m e m o ry n etw or k. T rad itio n a l su rv ey q ue stio n s d o n o t ca pitalise o n th e se a v ailab le c u es, as the y ten d to se g m e n t th e v a rio u s th em e s o f re sp on d en ts’ p a sts. E v en t h isto ry c a le n d a rs , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , e n c o u r a g e re sp o n d e n ts t o a p p re c ia te th e inte rre late dn e ss o f v ario us th e m e s w h ich se rve to cu e m em orie s b oth w ithin an d a cro ss the se th e m e s. G iv en th e p o ten tial o f e v en t h isto ry ca le n d ars fo r im p rov in g th e a cc u rac y a n d c o m p lete ne ss o f su rv ey rep o rt, surv e y re sea rch e rs sh ou ld seriou sly co n side r the ir u se . D ire ct c o m p ariso n s in th e q ua lity o f resp o n de n t rep o rts be tw ee n tra d itio na l su rv e y qu e stion s a n d e v en t h isto ry c a len d ars a re la ck in g. Ind ire ct co m -
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pa riso n s, ho w e v er, do in dic ate th a t im p ro v em en ts a re like ly w ith ev en t h isto ry ca len d ars. In a dd itio n , th e b en e fits o f c ale n da rs ou g h t to b e m a x im ise d w ith va rio u s en h an c e m e nts ba se d o n w h at is k no w n to fa cilita te p e o ple ’ s a b ilities to ac c ura te ly re m e m b e r the ir p a sts. H o w ev e r, ad d itio n al re sea rc h n ee d s to b e c o n d u c t ed th a t d ire c tl y c o m p a re s th e q u a lity o f re s p o n s es g a in e d w ith tra ditio na l surv ey q u estio ns a n d e v en t histor y c alen d a rs, a nd w hic h also co m pa res th e c osts o f e ac h m eth od o lo gy , c on side rin g suc h a sp ec ts as th e tra in in g o f in terv iew e rs, inte rv ie w in g tim e, a n d th e c od in g a nd a na ly ses o f da ta . A sse ssin g c osts is im po rta nt be ca u se red u c tio n o f su rv ey erro rs is a lm o st alw ay s a sso c ia te d w ith so m e in c rea se in c osts (G ro v e s, 1 9 89 ). T h e u ltim ate suc c ess o f ev e nt h isto ry c ale n da rs w ill be ju dg e d b y w he the r im p ro v em en ts in re tros pe c tiv e rep o rts are sh ow n to b e co st-effe ctive in su rve y a dm in istratio n. F o r ex a m p le, e x p lo rato ry c o gn itiv e w o rk h a s sh o w n th at re tro sp e ctive rep o rts o f m u n d an e die ta ry ev e nts c an b e d ra m a tic a lly im p ro ve d by u sin g te ch n iqu e s tha t en c ou ra g e g rea te r ac c ess to c ue s tha n is typ ica l in su rv e y q u estio ns, b u t a t co n sid era ble c o st in in terv iew in g tim e (F ishe r & Q u ig le y , 1 9 9 2). O n th e o th e r ha n d, a n y im p rov e m e n ts in ac cu ra cy in th e u se o f e ve n t h isto ry ca len d ars w ill te n d to offse t suc h c o st in c rea se s, a s v a lid e stim ates o f p op u lation ch a ra c te ristic s ca n b e o b ta in e d w ith few e r resp o n de n ts th a n th o se n ee d ed w ith tra d itio na l surv e y q u e stio ns. In su m m ary , the po te ntial d eg ree o f im p ro v em en t in th e qu a lity of su rv ey re po rt ap p ea rs w ell situ a te d to e nsu re co st-c o n ta inm e n t, pa rtic u larly w h en th e surv ey top ics se ek the rep o rtin g o f th o se p ast ev e nts tha t ha v e a ffec ted p eo p le’ s liv e s in se ve ra l d iffe ren t w ay s.
REFERENCES A n d e rso n , R .C ., & P ic h e rt, J .W . (1 9 7 8 ). R e c a ll o f p re v io u s ly u n re c a ll ab le i n fo rm a tio n fo ll o w i n g a s h ift in p e rs p e c t iv e . J o u r n a l o f V e r b a l L e a rn in g a n d V e r b a l B e h a v io r, 1 7 , 1 ±1 2 . A n d e rso n , S .J ., & C o n w a y , M .A . (1 9 9 3 ) . In v e s ti g a t in g t h e s tru ct u re o f s p e c i fic a u to b i o g rap h i c al m e m o rie s . J o u r n a l o f E xp e r im e n ta l P sy c h o lo g y: L e a r n in g , M e m o r y , a n d C o g n itio n , 1 9 , 1 ±1 9 . B a c h m a n , J .G ., & O ’ M a lle y , P .M . (1 9 8 1 ). W h e n fo u r m o n th s eq u al a y e ar: In c o n s i st e n c ie s in s t u d e n t r ep o rts o f d ru g u se . P u b l ic O p in io n Q u a r t er ly , 4 5 , 5 3 6 ±5 4 8 . B a rs al o u , L .W . ( 1 9 8 8 ). T h e c o n t en t a n d o rg a n i za t io n o f a u t o b io g r ap h ic a l m e m o ries . In U . N e is s e r & E . W i n o g r ad (E d s .), R e m e m b e rin g r e co n si d e r e d : E c o l o g ic a l a n d tr a d i tio n a l a p p ro a ch e s to th e s t u d y o f m e m o r y (p p .1 9 3 ±2 4 3 ). N e w Y o rk : C a m b ri d g e U n iv e rs ity P re s s. B a rtle t t, J .C ., & S n e lu s , P . (1 9 8 0 ). L ife s p a n m e m o ry fo r p o p u l ar s o n g s . A m er i ca n J o u rn a l o f P s y ch o lo g y , 9 3 , 5 5 1 ±5 6 0 . B ra d b u rn , N ., R ip s, L .J ., & S h e v el l, S .K . (1 9 8 7 ). A n sw e rin g a u t o b io g ra p h ic a l q u e s tio n s: T h e i m p a c t o f m e m o ry a n d in fe re n c e o n s u rv e y s . S c ie n ce , 2 3 6 , 1 5 7 ±1 6 1 . B re w er , W .F . (1 9 8 6 ). W h a t is a u to b i o g rap h ic a l m e m o ry ? In D .C . R u b in (E d .), A u t o b io g r a p h ic a l m e m o ry (p p .2 5 ±4 9 ). N ew Y o rk : C a m b rid g e U n iv e rsi ty P re s s. B ro w n , N .R . (1 9 9 0 ). O rg a n i z at io n o f p u b l ic e v e n ts in lo n g -t e rm m e m o r y . J o u r n a l o f E x p er i m e n ta l P s y ch o lo g y : G en e r a l, 1 1 9 , 2 9 7 ±3 1 4 . B ro w n , N .R . (1 9 9 5 ). E st im a ti o n s t ra te g i e s a n d t h e ju d g m e n t o f e v e n t fre q u e n c y . Jo u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n ta l P s y c h o lo g y : L e a r n in g , M e m o r y, a n d C o g n it io n , 2 1 , 1 5 3 9 ±1 5 5 3 .
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B ro w n , N .R ., R i p s , L .J ., & S h e v e ll , S .K . (1 9 8 5 ). T h e s u b je c t iv e d a t es o f n a tu ra l e v e n t s in v e ry -lo n g te rm m e m o ry . C o g n it iv e P sy c h o l o g y , 1 7 , 1 3 9 ±1 7 7 . B ro w n , N .R ., S h e v e ll , S .K ., & R ip s, L .J . (1 9 8 6 ). P u b l ic m e m o rie s a n d th ei r p e rs o n a l c o n te x t. In D .C . R u b in (E d .), A u to b i o g ra p h ic a l m e m o ry (p p .1 3 7 ±1 5 8 ). N e w Y o rk : C a m b ri d g e U n i v e rs it y P re s s . B u rto n , S ., & B l a ir, E . (1 9 9 1 ). T as k c o n d it io n s , re s p o n s e fo rm u la ti o n p ro ce s s e s , a n d re s p o n s e a cc u ra c y fo r b e h a v i o ra l fre q u e n c y q u e s ti o n s i n s u rv e y s . P u b l ic O p in io n Q u a rt e rly , 5 5 , 5 0 ±7 9 . C a n n e ll , C .F ., F i sh e r, G ., & B a k k e r, T . (1 9 6 5 ). R e p o rtin g o f h o s p ita li z ati o n in th e H e al th In t er v ie w S u rv e y . V ita l a n d H e a l th S t a t is ti cs (P H S P u b li c at io n N o . 1 0 0 0 , S e rie s 2 , N o . 6 ). W a sh in g to n , D C : U S G o v e rn m en t P r in t in g O ffic e . C a s h , W .S ., & M o s s, A .J . (1 9 7 2 ). O p t im u m re c a ll p eri o d fo r re p o rt in g p e rs o n s in ju r ed i n m o to r v e h ic le a cc i d e n ts . V it a l a n d H e a l th S ta tisti c s (D H E W P u b lic a ti o n N o . H S M 7 2 ±1 0 5 0 , S eri e s 2 , N o . 5 0 ). W a s h in g to n , D C : U S G o v e rn m en t P ri n t in g O ffic e . C a s p i , A ., M o ffi tt, T .E ., T h o rn to n , A ., F re e d m an , D ., A m e l l, J.W ., H a rrin g to n , H ., S m e ij er s, J ., & S il v a , P .A . (1 9 9 6 ). T h e li fe h i st o ry c al e n d a r: A re s e a rc h a n d c li n ic a l a s s e ss m e n t m e t h o d fo r c o l le c tin g ret ro s p e c tiv e e v e n t-h is to ry d a ta . In t e rn a tio n a l J o u rn a l o f M e th o d s in P s y ch ia tr ic R e s e a rc h , 6 , 1 0 1 ±1 1 4 . C o n w a y , M .A . (1 9 9 2 ). A s tru c tu ra l m o d e l o f a u t o b io g r ap h ic a l m e m o ry . In M .A . C o n w a y , D .C . R u b in , H . S p i n n le r, & W .A . W a g e n a ar (E d s .), T h e o r e tic a l p e r s p ec t iv e s o n a u to b io g ra p h ic a l m em o r y (p p .1 6 7 ±1 9 3 ). D o r d re c h t, N e th e rlan d s: K lu w e r. C o n w a y , M .A . (1 9 9 6 ). A u to b i o g rap h i c a l k n o w le d g e a n d a u to b i o g ra p h ic al m e m o rie s . In D .C . R u b i n (E d .), R e m em b e r in g o u r p a st : S tu d ie s in a u to b io g r a p h ica l m e m o r y (p p .6 7 ±9 3 ). N e w Y o rk : C a m b ri d g e U n iv e rs ity P re ss . C o n w a y , M .A ., & B e k er ia n , D .A . (1 9 8 7 ). O rg a n iz a tio n in a u to b i o g ra p h ic al m e m o ry . M em o r y & C o g n itio n , 1 5 , 1 1 9 ±1 3 2 . C o n w a y , M .A ., & R u b in , D .C . (1 9 9 3 ). T h e s tru ct u re o f a u t o b io g ra p h ic a l m e m o ry . In A .E . C o l lin s , S .E . G a th erc o le , M .A . C o n w a y , & P .E .M . M o rris (E d s .), T h e o r ie s o f m em o r y (p p .1 0 3 ±1 3 7 ). H o v e , U K : L a w re n c e E rl b a u m A s s o ci a te s L td . E l d e r, G .H . J r. (1 9 8 5 ). P e rs p e c ti v e s o n t h e life c o u rs e . In G .H . E l d e r J r. (E d .), L i fe co u rs e d y n a m i cs (p p .2 3 ±4 9 ). It h a c a , N Y : C o rn e l l U n i v e rs it y P re s s . F i sh e r, R .P ., & Q u i g l ey , K .L . (1 9 9 2 ) . A p p l y i n g c o g n it iv e th e o ry in p u b l ic h e a lt h in v e s t ig a t io n s: E n h a n c in g fo o d re c al l w i th t h e co g n i tiv e in te rv ie w . I n J.M . T a n u r (E d .), Q u es t io n s a b o u t q u e s tio n s (p p .1 5 4 ±1 6 9 ). N ew Y o rk : R u s s e l S a g e . F re e d m an , D ., T h o rn to n , A ., C a m b u r n , D ., A lw in , D ., & Y o u n g -D e M a rc o , L . (1 9 8 8 ). T h e l ife h i st o ry c a le n d a r: A t e c h n iq u e fo r c o l le c tin g re tro sp e c tiv e d a ta . In C .C . C lo g g (E d .), S o c io lo g ic a l m et h o d o l o g y (V o l. 1 8 , p p .3 7 ±6 8 ). S an F ra n c is c o : J o ss e y -B a s s. F ri ck e , T .E ., S y e d , S .H ., & S m ith , P .C . (1 9 8 6 ). R u ra l P u n ja b i s o ci a l o rg an iz a ti o n a n d m a rri a g e tim i n g s tra te g ie s i n P a k is ta n . D e m o g r a p h y , 2 3 , 4 8 9 ±5 0 8 . F ri ed m a n , W .J . (1 9 9 3 ). M e m o ry fo r th e t im e o f p a s t e v en ts . P sy c h o l o g ic a l B u ll et in , 1 1 3 , 4 4 ±6 6 . F u rs te n b er g , F .F . J r., B ro o k s -G u n n , J ., & M o rg a n , S .P . (1 9 8 7 ). A d o le s c en t m o t h e r s i n la te r li fe . N ew Y o rk : C a m b rid g e U n iv e rsi ty P res s . G ro v e s , R .M . (1 9 8 9 ). S u rv e y e r ro r s a n d s u r v e y c o s ts . N e w Y o rk : W ile y . H u t te n l o c h e r, J ., H ed g es , L ., & B ra d b u rn , N .M . (1 9 9 0 ). R e p o rts o f e la p s ed tim e : B o u n d in g a n d ro u n d i n g p r o c e s se s i n e st im a ti o n . J o u r n a l o f E x p e r im e n t a l P s y c h o lo g y: L e a rn in g , M em o r y , a n d C o g n itio n , 1 6 , 1 9 6 ±2 1 3 . J o b e , J .B ., T o u ra n g e a u , R ., &
S m i th , A .F . (1 9 9 3 ). C o n trib u tio n s o f s u rv ey
re se a rc h
to a n
u n d e rs t an d in g o f m e m o ry . A p p li e d C o g n it iv e P s yc h o lo g y , 7 , 5 6 7 ±5 8 4 . K e ss l er, R .C ., & W e th in g to n , E . (1 9 9 1 ). T h e re lia b il ity o f l ife ev e n t re p o rts i n a c o m m u n ity s u rv e y . P s y c h o lo g ic a l M e d i ci n e , 2 1 , 7 2 3 ±7 3 8 . L i n t o n , M . (1 9 8 2 ). T ra n s fo rm a ti o n s o f m e m o ry i n e v e ry d a y l ife . In U . N e is s e r (E d .), M e m o r y o b s e rv e d : R e m e m b e r in g i n n a t u r a l c o n te x ts (p p .7 7 ±9 1 ). S an F ra n c is c o : F re e m an .
406
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L in to n , M . (1 9 8 6 ). W a y s o f s e a rc h in g a n d th e c o n te n ts o f m e m o ry . In D .C . R u b in (E d .) , A u t o b io g ra p h ic a l m e m o r y (p p .5 0 ±6 7 ). N e w Y o rk : C a m b rid g e U n i v e rsi ty P re s s . L o ftu s, E .F ., & M a rb u rg er, W . (1 9 8 3 ) . S i n c e th e e ru p t io n o f M t. S t . H e le n s , h a s a n y o n e b ea t en y o u u p ? Im p ro v in g th e a cc u ra c y o f re t ro s p e c tiv e re p o rts w it h la n d m a rk e v e n ts . M e m o r y & C o g n itio n , 1 1 , 1 1 4 ±1 2 0 . L y k e ts o s , C .G ., N e s ta d t, G ., C w i, J., H e i th o ff, K ., & E a t o n , W .W . (1 9 9 4 ). T h e life c h a rt in te rv ie w : A s ta n d a rd iz e d m e th o d t o d e s c rib e t h e c o u rs e o f p s y c h o p a th o lo g y . In te r n a ti o n a l J o u r n a l o f M e th o d s in P s y c h i a t ri c R e s e a r c h , 4 , 1 4 3 ±1 5 5 . M a rk u s , H ., & N u riu s , P . (1 9 8 6 ). P o s s ib le se l v e s . A m e r ic a n P sy c h o l o g i st , 4 1 , 9 5 4 ±9 6 9 . M a th io w e tz , N . (1 9 8 6 ) . T h e p ro b le m o f o m is si o n s a n d t e le s c o p in g e rro r: N e w e v i d e n c e fro m a s t u d y o f u n e m p lo y m e n t . P r o ce e d in g s o f th e S e c ti o n o n S u r v e y R e s e a r c h M e t h o d s . W a s h in g t o n , D C : A m e ric a n S t at is ti ca l A s s o ci a tio n . M e a n s , B ., & L o ftu s , E .F . ( 1 9 9 1 ). W h e n p e rs o n a l h is to ry re p e a ts itse lf: D e c o m p o s in g m e m o ries fo r r ec u rrin g e v e n t s . A p p l ie d C o g n i tiv e P s y ch o lo g y , 5 , 2 9 7 ±3 1 8 . M e a n s , B ., N ig a m , A ., Z a rro w , M ., L o ftu s , E .F . & D o n a l d s o n , M .W . (1 9 8 9 ). A u to b i o g rap h i c al m e m o ry fo r h e a lth -re la te d e v e n ts . V it a l a n d H e a lth S ta tist ic s (D H H S P u b lic a t io n N o . P H S 8 9 1 0 7 7 , S e ri es 6 , N o . 2 ). W a s h in g to n D C : U S G o v e rn m e n t P rin ti n g O f fic e . M e n o n , G . (1 9 9 3 ). T h e e ffe c ts o f a c c e s si b i lilty o f i n fo rm a ti o n i n m e m o ry o n ju d g m e n t s o f b e h av io ra l fre q u e n ci e s. Jo u rn a l o f C o n s u m e r R e s e a rc h , 2 0 , 4 3 1 ±4 4 0 . M e n o n , G ., R a g h u b ir , P ., & S c h w a rz , N . (1 9 9 5 ). B e h a v io ra l fre q u en c y ju d g m e n ts: A n a c c e s s ib ility ± d ia g n o s ti ci ty fra m e w o rk . J o u r n a l o f C o n s u m e r R e s e a r c h , 2 2 , 2 1 2 ±2 2 8 . N ei s se r, U . (1 9 8 1 ). J o h n D ea n ’ s m em o ry : A c a s e s tu d y . C o g n it io n , 9 , 1 ±2 2 . N e i s s e r , U . ( 1 9 8 6 ). N e s t e d
stru ctu re
in
a u t o b i o g ra p h i c a l m e m o r y . I n
D .C . R u b i n
( E d .),
A u t o b io g ra p h ic a l m e m o r y (p p .7 1 ±8 1 ). N e w Y o rk : C a m b rid g e U n i v e rsi ty P re s s . N ei s se r, U . (1 9 8 8 ). W h a t is o rd i n a ry m e m o ry th e m e m o ry o f? In U . N ei s se r & E . W in o g ra d (E d s .), R e m e m b e r in g re c o n s i d e r e d : E c o l o g ic a l a n d t r a d it io n a l a p p r o a c h es t o th e s tu d y o f m e m o r y ( p p .3 5 6 ±3 7 3 ). N e w Y o rk : C a m b rid g e U n i v e rs it y P re s s . P il le m e r, D .B ., G o ld s m ith , L .R ., P a n te r, A .T ., & W h ite , S .H . (1 9 8 8 ). V e ry lo n g -te rm m e m o rie s o f t h e firs t y e a r i n c o l le g e. J o u r n a l o f E x p e ri m en ta l P s yc h o lo g y: L e a r n i n g , M e m o r y , a n d C o g n itio n , 1 4 , 7 0 9 ±7 1 5 . R o b in s o n , J .A . ( 1 9 8 6 ). T e m p o ra l re fe re n c e s y s te m s a n d a u to b i o g rap h ic a l m e m o ry . In D .C . R u b in ( E d .), A u t o b io g r a p h i c a l m e m o ry (p p .1 5 9 ±1 8 8 ). N ew Y o rk : C a m b ri d g e U n iv e rsi ty P re ss . R o b in s o n , J .A . (1 9 9 2 ). F irs t ex p e rie n c e m e m o rie s : C o n te x t s a n d fu n ct io n s i n p e rs o n a l h i st o ri e s. In M .A . C o n w a y , D .C . R u b i n , H . S p i n n le r, & W .A . W a g e n a a r (E d s .), T h e o r et ic a l p e r s p e c ti v es o n a u to b i o g r a p h ic a l m e m o r y (p p .2 2 3 ±2 3 9 ). D o rd re ch t, N e th e rla n d s : K lu w er . R o s c h , E . (1 9 7 8 ). P rin c ip le s o f c a te g o ri z at io n . In E . R o s ch & B .B . L l o y d (E d s .), C o g n itio n a n d c a te g o r i za ti o n (p p .2 5 ±4 9 ). H il ls d a le , N J : L a w r en c e E rlb a u m A s so c ia te s In c . R u b in , D .C ., & B a d d e le y , A .D . (1 9 8 9 ). T el e sc o p in g is n o t t im e c o m p re s s io n : A m o d e l o f t h e d a ti n g o f a u to b i o g ra p h ic al e v e n ts . M e m o r y & C o g n i tio n , 1 7 , 6 5 3 ±6 6 1 . S c h o o le r, J.W ., & H e rrm a n n , D .J . (1 9 9 2 ). T h e re is m o re t o e p i so d ic m e m o ry th a n ju s t e p i so d es . In M .A . C o n w a y , D .C . R u b i n , H . S p i n n le r, & W .A . W a g e n a a r (E d s .), T h e o r et ic a l p e r s p e c ti v es o n a u to b i o g r a p h ic a l m e m o r y (p p .2 4 1 ±2 6 1 ). D o rd re ch t, N e th e rla n d s : K lu w er . S c h w a rz , N ., &
S u d m a n , S . ( E d s .) (1 9 9 4 ). A u to b i o g r a p h i c a l m e m o r y a n d t h e v a li d i t y o f
r e tr o s p e c ti v e r e p o r ts . N e w Y o rk : S p rin g e r-V e rla g . S u d m a n , S ., & B ra d b u rn , N .M . (1 9 8 2 ). A sk i n g q u e s tio n s : A p r a c tic a l g u i d e to q u e s ti o n n a ir e d e s ig n . S a n F ran c is c o : J o s s e y -B a s s. T h o m p s o n , C .P ., S k o w ro n s k i, J.J ., L a rs e n , S .F ., & B e t z , A .L . (1 9 9 6 ). A u to b io g r a p h i ca l m e m o r y : R e m e m b e r in g w h a t a n d re m e m b e r in g w h e n . M a h w a h , N J: L a w re n c e E rl b a u m A s s o c iat es In c . T h o m p s o n , C .P ., S k o w ro n sk i , J .J ., & L e e , D .J . (1 9 8 8 ) . T el e sc o p in g i n d a tin g n a tu ra lly o c c u rri n g e v e n t s . M e m o ry & C o g n it io n , 1 6 , 4 6 1 ±4 6 8 .
M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 4 0 7 ±4 2 6
``D o n ’ t K n o w ’ ’ R e sp o n s e s in S u r v e y s : I s W h a t I K n o w W h a t Y o u W a n t to K n o w a n d D o I W a n t Y o u to K n o w It? P a u l B e a tty N a tio n al C en te r fo r H ea lth S ta tistic s, U S A
D o u g la s H e rrm a n n Ind ia na S tate U n ive rsity, U S A
C a th y P u sk a r B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tistics, U SA
Je ffre y K e rw in W e sta t, U S A
R es po n se s to su rv e y q u e s tion s a re as su m e d to b e b a se d o n w h at r e sp on d e nts c an ac tua lly d r aw f ro m m e m or y . F or e x a m p le , if re sp o n d e n ts r ep o rt en g ag ing in so m e b eh a v io u r a c e rtain nu m b e r of tim e s, w e a ss um e th at a s ub st a ntiv e a n sw e r re fle cts w h at th e y r e ally k no w . C o nv e rs ely , w he n re sp o nd e n ts s ay tha t th ey `` do n ’ t k n o w ’ ’ ( D K ) th e an sw e r , it is b e liev e d th a t th e ir r es po n se r ef le c ts a la ck of m e m o r y r e le v a n t to th e q ue s tio n . H o w e ve r , s ur v ey r e sp o nd in g is n o w un d er st oo d to b e a h ig h ly c o m p le x p ro c es s. I n th is a rtic le , w e p ro p os e a fr am ew o rk to ac c o un t fo r th e k in d o f r e po rts m a d e b y r e sp on d en ts to a s ur ve y . T he f ra m e w or k h o ld s th at r es p o n de n t r e po rts ar e ba se d o n th re e fa c to rs : w h a t th e r es p on d en t a c tu a lly k no w s (th e p er so n ’ s `` c og n itiv e s ta te ’ ’ ); w he th e r th e re sp o nd e n t b e liev e s th a t th e p ote ntia l a n s w er m e e ts th e re q uire m e n ts of th e qu e st io n (a n ` `a de q u ac y jud g em en t’ ’ ) ; an d w h eth er the re sp o nd e nt c h oo se s to pr ov ide th is a n sw e r (the p e r so n’ s `` co m m u n ic a tive in te n t’ ’ ) . S u b se qu e ntly , th e ar tic le ex a m in e s h o w r e le v an t f in d in g s in th e lite r atur e s u pp o rt th e f ra m e w o rk , an d th e n ev a lu a te s the a s su m p tion s m ad e a bo u t c o gn itive s ta te s in ligh t of th e re su lts o f tw o e x pe r im e n ts . T h e lite r atur e a nd re se a rc h p r es en ted d e m o n st ra te th a t su rv e y re sp on d in g ca n b e ac c o u n te d fo r b y a fr a m e w o r k tha t as su m e s re sp o nd in g is b a se d o n c er ta in k e y c o g nitive pr oc e ss es .
R e q u e s ts f o r re p ri n t s s h o u ld b e s e n t t o D o u g la s H e rrm a n n , In d ia n a S t a te U n iv e rs ity , D e p a rtm e n t o f P s y ch o lo g y , T e rre H a u t e, In d ia n a 4 7 8 0 9 , U S A .
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1 9 9 8 P s y ch o lo g y P re s s L td
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INTRODUCTION T ra dition a lly , rese a rc h e rs h av e a ssu m e d th at re sp on se s to su rv ey q ue stio n s are ba se d o n w h a t re sp o nd e nts c a n ac tua lly d raw fro m m e m o ry . T h at is, if a re sp o n de n t re p orts en g ag in g in som e b e ha v iou r a c ertain n um b er o f tim e s, w e a ssu m e t h a t a su b s ta n tiv e a n s w e r re fle c t s w h a t th e y re a lly k n o w ; a n d co n se qu e ntly , w h en a re sp o nd e nt p rov id es a ``d o n ’ t k n o w ’ ’ (D K ) re sp on se , it re flec ts a lac k of m e m ory re le v an t to the q ue stio n . W e rea liz e no w th at su rve y re sp on d ing is a p ote n tia lly c om p le x p roc ess in v o lv in g c og n itiv e sta g e s su ch as co m p re h en sion , re triev a l, ju d ge m e n t, a n d re sp o n se (T ou ran g e au , 1 9 8 4; T o ura n ge a u & R a sin ski, 1 9 88 ; W illis, R o y sto n , & B e rc in i, 1 9 9 1). Id ea lly , resp o n de n ts p rov id e a sub sta ntiv e re sp o nse w h e n the y kn o w the a n sw er to the q u estio n, a nd p ro vid e a D K re sp o nse w h en th ey d o n ot. H o w e ve r, a pp lyin g w h at w e h av e lea rne d a b ou t th e re sp o nse p ro ce ss, w e se e th a t the re is n o t ne ce ssa rily d irec t c orre spo n d e nc e b etw ee n w h a t a resp o n d en t kn o w s an d w ha t a resp o n d en t re p or ts. W e p rop o se th a t w h a t a re sp o nd e nt rep o rts is d riv en by th re e fa c to rs:
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W h at th e re spo n d en t ac tu ally k n ow s, or the ``c og n itiv e sta te ’ ’ . W h eth er th e re spo n d en t be lie v e s th at th e po ten tial an sw e r m ee ts th e req u ire m en ts o f the q ue stion , o r an ``a de q ua c y ju d ge m e n t’ ’ . W h eth er th e resp o n d en t ch o ose s to p ro v id e th is an sw e r, o r th e ``co m m u nic ative in te n t’ ’ .
W e e x p la in e ac h o f th e se fa cto rs in tu rn, as a b a sis fo r b u ild ing a larg e r fra m ew o rk fo r un de rsta n din g th e b asis su rv ey re sp o nd in g , e sp ec ially as it b ea rs on D K resp o n ses a n d gu e ssin g . T h is fra m e w or k, w h ich w e refe r to as th e R e sp o nse B asis F ram ew o rk , w ill b e th e b asis fo r th e e x pe rim e nt w e d iscu ss in th e sec o n d h a lf o f th e pa p er.
THE RESPONSE BASIS FRAMEWORK Cognitive States W e su g g est th a t info rm a tion o n w hic h re sp on d en ts dra w to a n sw er surv e y qu e stio n s c an be c la ssifie d in te rm s of fo u r c og n itiv e re c a ll state s (B ea tty & H e rrm an n , 19 9 5 ; H a she r & G riffin, 19 7 8 ; H errm an n , 1 98 6 , 1 9 95 ; R e d er, 19 8 7 a,b , 1 98 8 ). T h ese sta tes a re: 1 . A va ila b le: T h e req u este d in fo rm a tio n is kn o w n an d av a ila b le w ith n o ap p are n t e ffort. 2 . A cc ess ib le: T h e re q ue sted in fo rm atio n is k n ow n b u t is no t in sta ntly av a ila b le Ð effo rt from resp o n de n t or inte rv ie w er p ro b in g m ay b e re qu ire d fo r re c a ll.
``DON’T KNOW’’ RESPONSES IN SURVEYS
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3. G en era tab le: T h e req u e ste d in fo rm a tio n is n o t e x ac tly k n o w n , bu t th e re s p o n d e n t h a s e n o u g h in fo r m a t io n i n m e m o r y to m a k e a re a s o n a b le ap p ro x im ation . 4. Ig no ran t: T h e req u este d in fo rm a tio n is n o t kn o w n , a nd th ere is no b asis to ap p ro x im ate th is in fo rm a tio n . O bv io us ly , c o g nitive sta te p la y s an im p o rtan t role in d e te rm in ing w h a t a resp o n d en t sa y s h e or sh e k n ow s in re sp on se to a q ue stio n . In th e first c o gn itiv e state (a va ila b le ), th e resp o n de n t k n ow s th e a nsw e r to th e q u estio n, b y de fin ition ; in the fou rth c o gn itiv e sta te (ig n o ran t), th e re sp o nd e nt d o es n ot k no w o r a t b e st, co u ld on ly gu e ss w ild ly . In th e tw o in te rm e d iate sta te s, th e resp o nd e nt h a s info rm a tio n th a t c o uld be use d to a nsw e r th e q u estio n . B u t th e c o g nitive sta te is o nly th e ba sisÐ th e ac tu al re sp on se is d e te rm in e d by sev er al o the r fa cto rs (E isen h o w e r, M a thio w e tz , & M o rg an stein , 1 9 91 ; G ro ve s, 1 9 89 ).
Adequacy Judgements A n a de q u ac y ju d ge m en t is n ec essa ry w h e n a po ten tia l re sp o nse co n tain s u nc e rta inty , e stim ation , o r gu e ssin g Ð i.e. w h en th e re sp on d en t’ s k n ow led g e falls in on e o f th e ``in term ed iate ’ ’ co g n itiv e states, a cc e ssible o r g en e rata ble (T o u ran g e au , 1 98 4 ; Job e & H e rrm an n , 19 9 6 ). In th ose sta tes, a resp o nd e n t ca n p ro v ide so m e info rm a tio n , b u t it m a y no t be c le ar w h e th e r th is in fo rm a tio n m e ets th e req u ire m en ts o f th e qu e stio n . C o n sid e r, fo r e x am ple , a q u estio n tha t ask s ``In the las t se v en d a ys, h o w m a n y tim e s d id yo u d rink o ran g e ju ic e? ’ ’ T h e resp o n d en t m a y no t b e a b le to re m e m be r this info rm a tion e x ac tly , b u t m a y kn o w tha t (s)h e u su ally d rink s juic e w ith b re a kfa st e v ery da y , an d be in c lin e d to a n sw e r ``s ev en tim e s’ ’ . B e c au s e th e re s p o n d e n t k n o w s th is is o n ly a n ap p ro x im ation , a de cisio n is re q uire d : w o uld it b e be st to a d m it th at (s)h e litera lly d oe s no t k n o w , o r w o u ld p rov id in g th e ``b est’ ’ p o ssible a nsw e r b e p re fera b le? T h is d e cisio n w ill b e b a sed o n a ju d g em e nt o f th e lev e l of p re c isio n tha t is ca lled for. N o te th at this d ec isio n m a y be qu ite d ifficu lt if the su rv e y q ue stio n a sks for c o m p lic a te d in fo rm a tion , or p ro v id e s in su fficien t g u id a n ce a s to th e le ve l o f ce rta inty th at q ua lifie s as a leg itim ate an sw e r. R esp o n de n ts w ith eq u a l le v els o f ce rta inty a b ou t th eir a n sw er co u ld m a k e d iffere n t de c isio n s a bo u t the a d eq u ac y o f th e resp o n se. S o m e m ay fe e l th a t a D K re spo n se is m o re litera lly co rrec t; o the rs m a y fe el th a t D K s sho u ld b e a vo id ed , a n d th at an y su bsta ntiv e a n sw er is b e tte r th a n n o n e, ev e n if it p rob a b ly is n o t co rrec t.
Communicative Intent W h e th e r o r no t re spo n d en ts fe el th at th ey h a ve su ffic ie nt k n ow le dg e to p ro v ide a n ad e q ua te an sw e r to the surv ey qu e stio n , th e y m a y o r m ay no t a c tu a lly c h oo se to rep o rt it (D e M aio , 19 8 4 ; H ip p ler, S c hw a rz, & S u dm an , 1 9 87 ; S u c hm an & Jo rd a n, 1 99 0 ). W e refe r to the d ec isio n of w h at to re po rt a s c o m m un ic ative inte nt. S o c ia l
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de sirab ility m a y be o n e influ e nc e o n c om m u n ica tiv e in te n t. F o r e x am ple , su rv e y qu e stio n s m ay a sk re spo n d en ts to rev e a l th a t th e y h av e p o or e x erc ise ha b its, en g ag e in risk y be h av iou r su ch as d ru g use , a n d so o n . A re sp on d en t m a y b e ca p ab le o f pro v id in g a n an sw e r tha t (s)h e be lie v es to be c o m p lete ly ac ce p ta b le, bu t ch o o se n o t to rep o rt it o u t o f em b arra ssm e n t o r la c k o f tru st in co n fide n tia lity (T u rn er, 1 9 8 2). O ne w ay to av o id re po rting su ch in fo rm atio n w o u ld b e to p lea d ig n o ran c e a n d sim ply re po rt th a t on e d oe s n o t k n o w . M o tiv a tio n m ay a lso be a fa c to rÐ th e re sp o nd e nt m a y re a lise th a t a nsw e rin g th e qu e stio n is p ossib le b ut tha t pro v id in g an ad e qu a te resp o n se w o u ld b e tim e co n sum in g a n d m en tally ta xin g (C a nn e ll & H en so n, 1 9 74 ). P lea d ing ig no ran c e co u ld o cc u r fo r tha t re a so n a lso . O n th e o the r h an d , it is p ossib le tha t a re spo n d en t m a y re a lly no t kn o w th e an sw e r to a q u estion , b ut fe el tha t a dm itting ig n ora n c e is so m e h ow un d esira b le , a n d th e re fo re p ro vid e an un tru th fu l su b stan tive resp o n se.
Response Paths and Response Errors W e have sugg ested that c ognitive states, ad equacy judgem ents, an d co m m unica tive inten t collectively determ in e w h ether a resp onden t pro vide s a substan tive re spo nse , a superficia l re sp onse, or a D K respon se. Pre vio us m od els and fram ew ork s do sh ow tha t resp onses m ay b e depen dent on cog nitive states, adequ acy judg em e nts, an d com m un icative intent (o r equivale nt concep ts) (e.g . C annell, M iller, & O kse nberg, 1981; M u llin, C onrad, Sand er, & H e rrm an n, 1 994; see Jobe & H errm ann , 19 96, fo r m o re detailed disc ussio n). H ow e ver, those fram ew ork s do not sh ow ho w the cogn itive states m en tioned ea rlier can le ad to diffe ren t re sp o nse o utco m e s (w hich w e call ``resp onse pa th s’ ’ ). A lth ou gh cognitive state necessa rily influe nces the likeliho od of sub stantive resp onses and D K s, Fig. 1 sh ow s th at any cog nitive state can lead to either response outcom e. R esp onse p aths are sho w n a s a rrow s, con necting the re spo nden t’ s c ognitive state (left side) w ith the response outco m e (rig ht side). P aths are labe lled by th eir origin s and endp oin ts; thus the path from the first cogn itive state (``availab le’ ’ ) to a D K is ``1 D ’ ’ , w hile the path to a su bstantive response is ``1R ’ ’ , and so on. N ote that som e o f these path s represent truthful re spo nse s, w hile o thers repre sent erro rs. R e sea rc he rs o bv io u sly d e sire tru th ful re spo n ses . If resp o n de n ts h av e th e kn o w led g e th a t th e surv e y qu e stio n c alls fo r, w h ic h is a lw a y s th e c ase in th e ``a v a ilab le’ ’ co g nitive sta te , th e m o st d esira ble o utc o m e w ou ld b e a tru th fu l sub sta ntiv e re sp o nse (H ip ler & S c hw a rtz , 19 8 9 ). S im ilarly , if resp o n de n ts d o n o t ha v e an y b asis fo r an sw e rin g , a s in th e ``ig n ora n t’ ’ c o gn itiv e state , th e id ea l ou tc om e w o u ld b e a D K . H o w e ve r, re spo n d en ts’ an sw e rs do n o t n e ce ssar ily re flec t w h a t th e y re ally k n ow (B ra d b urn , R ip s, & S h e ve ll, 19 8 7 ). If resp o n de n ts do n ot p ro vid e inf orm ation tha t th ey c o uld pro v id e , this is a n e x am p le o f a n erro r of o m issio n w h ich is la be lle d ``O ’ ’ on F ig . 1 (e .g . see P a th 1D ). If re sp o n de n ts p rov id e u ntru th fu l info rm a tion , this is erro r of co m m issio n , w hic h is lab e lle d ``C ’ ’ o n F ig. 1 (e .g . se e Pa th 4 R ).
FIG. 1.
S t a te -re s p o n s e m ap p in g fo r fo u r c o g n itiv e s ta te s .
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C o m m u n ic ativ e in ten t ca n b e a n im p ortan t d e te rm in a nt o f b oth k in d s o f erro rs. N eg a tiv e c o m m u n ica tiv e in te ntÐ i.e . a de sire to tell le ss th a n th e tru th th ro u gh eithe r co m m issio n o r o m issio n Ð co u ld arise fro m lo w m o tiv a tio n (K ro sn ick , 1 9 9 1), so cial d e sira b ility (D eM a io, 1 98 4 ), c o nfid en tiality c o nc ern s, (G fro e re r, G u stin, & T u rn er, 1 99 2 ), or o th er fa cto rs. In fa c t, c om m u n ica tiv e in ten t is the o n ly re aso n ab le ex p lan a tio n fo r e rro rs of o m issio n an d c o m m issio n in the ``ex tre m e’ ’ c og n itiv e sta te s (``a va ilab le’ ’ an d ``ig n or an t’ ’ ). In tho se sta tes, it is sim p le to see th e p a ths th at m e et re sea rc he rs’ o bje ctiv es (1 R , 4D ) a n d th o se th a t d o no t (1 D , 4 R ). G e n e ra lly , h o w e ve r, k no w le dg e ab o ut p erso n al b eh a vio u r is n o t so ab so lu te Ð a ns w ering q u estio ns e ith er req u ire s n o te w orth y e ffort (th e ``a c ce ssible ’ ’ state ) o r u se o f a n e stim ation stra teg y (th e ``ge n e ra tab le ’ ’ sta te). F re q ue n c y o f v isits to a d o cto r’ s o ffice or o the r co m m o n ac tiv itie s m ay n o t b e kn o w n e x ac tly , alth ou g h in a ll lik elih o o d re spo n d en ts h a v e som e rele va n t in fo rm a tio n ab o u t th e m in m e m o ry . T h ey m u st m ak e a ju d ge m e n t ab o u t w h e th e r th e ir im p rec ise info rm ation ju stifie s a n an sw er to th e q ue stio n (S c h le n ke r, 19 8 6 ). T h u s, re spo n d en ts w ith e x ac tly th e sam e de g ree o f k no w le dg e co u ld m a k e d iffe ren t d e cisio ns a b ou t w h ich re spo n se o p tio n is ap p ro p ria te . N o te tha t pa th s 2 R , 2 D , 3R , a nd 3 D c o u ld all b e co n sid e red tru th ful resp o nse s d ep e n din g on th e resp o n de n t’ s ad e qu a c y ju d g em en t. If a re sp on d en t b e lie ve s th a t on ly pre c ise info rm a tio n sh ou ld b e rep o rted , th en a D K m ig h t be c orre ct. O n the o th e r ha n d, a n oth e r re sp o nd e nt m igh t thin k tha t a ``b e st gu e ss’ ’ is pe rfec tly re aso n a ble fo r p u rp o se s of a surv e y re sp o nse . W e sum m arise th e ro le o f co g n itiv e sta te s, ad e qu a c y ju d ge m en ts, a n d co m m u n ic a tiv e in ten t in re sp on d in g to su rv e y q ue stion s in F ig . 2. T h e p roc ess be g ins w ith th e fo rm u la tio n o f a po ten tial resp o n se to the q u estio n . In c o gn itiv e sta tes 1 an d 4 , c om m u n ica tiv e in te n t d e te rm in es w h eth er this resp o n se is pro v id ed . T h ose w ith tru th ful inte nt p ro vid e eithe r an a nsw e r o r a leg itim ate D K , an d tho se w ith u ntru thfu l co m m u n ic a tiv e in ten t c an c om m it eithe r e rro rs o f om ission w ith a D K (p lea d in g ign o ran c e ) o r co m m issio n (a n un tru th fu l su b s ta n ti v e re s p o n s e ; a su p e rfi c ia lly s u b st a n t iv e a n s w e r f o r w h ic h t h e re sp o n de n t ha s n o in fo rm a tio n ). W he n rele va n t in fo rm a tio n is n eith e r p rec ise ly kn o w n n o r u n k no w n , a s in c o gn itiv e sta te s 2 an d 3, th e a de q u ac y ju dg e m e n t pre c ed e s th e d ec ision of co m m u n ic a tiv e in te n t. If a resp o n de n t c on sid e rs a re sp o n se to b e ad e q ua te , th en a su b stan tive re sp on se is tru th fu l; a n d if th e re sp o n de n t do e s n o t, th en a D K is tru th fu lÐ a t lea st b ase d o n th e resp o n d en t’ s un d er sta n din g o f th e q u estio n re qu irem e nts.
ACCEPTING AND NOT ACCEPTING DK RESPONSES T h e R e s p o n s e B a s is F ra m e w o rk , if v a lid , sh o u ld b e a u se fu l to o l fo r un d er sta n din g h o w resp o n de n ts c ho o se b e tw e en pro v id in g su bsta n tiv e an sw e rs an d D K s. R e sea rc h ers m ay k e ep th is R esp o ns e B a sis fra m ew o rk in m in d w he n
FIG. 2.
D e c is io n m o d e l fo r e x p re s s io n o f p o te n tia l re s p o n se .
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de c idin g w h e th e r to en c ou ra g e o r disc ou ra g e D K re sp o nse s. So m e re sea rch e rs m a y w a n t sub stan tiv e re spo n se s on ly if re sp on d e nts a re v e ry c o nfid en t o f th e ac cu ra c y o f th e ir an sw e rs, w h e rea s oth ers m a y fee l th at ev en a w ild g u e ss is lik ely to ha v e so m e v alu e an d is p refe rab le to a D K . S o m e rese arc h ers fav o u r disc o ura g in g D K re sp on se s to fa c tu a l q u e stio n s, n o t o nly b ec a use th ey re d uc e effe ctive sa m p le siz es (S c hu m a n & P re sser, 19 8 1 ), b u t a lso b e ca u se se v era l stu d ies h av e sh o w n th at va lua b le info rm a tio n m igh t ha v e b ee n o b tain ab le if re sp o n de n ts h a d e x erte d a dd itio n al e ffo rt (C a nn e ll, O k se nb e rg , & C on v e rse, 19 7 9 ) o r if in terv iew e rs ha d p ro be d th e m in g re a te r d e ta il (M artin, 19 8 6 ). Y e t oth e r rese a rch e rs h av e po in te d o u t lim ita tio n s of re sp o n de n ts’ a bility to re c all in fo rm a tio n a nd th e p o te n tia l for resp o nse d istortio n (H e rrm a n n, 1 9 8 6, 1 9 93 , 19 9 5 ; B ra db u rn et al., 19 8 7 ). R e sea rc he rs m a y u se sev era l te c h niq ue s to in flue n ce h o w ea sy o r diffic u lt it is fo r re sp on d en ts to pro v ide D K re spo n ses , b ase d o n th eir d ata req u ire m en ts. If a D K resp o n se is o ffe re d e xp licitly to a re spo n d en t, th is c rea tes a ``filter’ ’ (b e c au se it filte rs sub je cts a w a y from su bsta n tiv e re sp o nse s). F ilte rin g c an b e do n e in v ary in g d e gre e sÐ fo r e xa m p le , a ``full filte r’ ’ allo w s a re sp o nd e nt to sa y th a t (s)he kn o w s n o th in g a b ou t a to p ic b e for e th e q u estio n is e v en a sk ed , w h e re as a ``q u asi-filte r’ ’ sim p ly pre sen ts ``D K ’ ’ as a leg itim ate a n sw e r to th e qu e stio n . In o the r c ase s (a n on -filte re d fo rm ), th e D K op tion is n o t ex p lic itly sta ted (S ch u m an & P re sse r, 1 9 81 ). B u t ev e n h e re , resp o n d en ts are lik e ly to pro v id e D K s som etim e s. R e se arc h ers c a n a dd ress su ch re sp on ses by a cc e p tin g th e m , o r b y fu rth er p ro be s or m em ory c ue s. It is a m atte r of d eg re e h o w e asy o r difficu lt it ca n b e to p rov id e a D K .
Error Control Strategies F ilters a re u se d un d er th e assu m ptio n th at p rese n tin g D K s as a leg itim ate altern a tiv e w ill e n co u rag e m o re resp o nd e n ts to u se th em as a n ``ou t’ ’ . T h e m o re ex tre m e th e filte r, th e m ore pe o ple w ill pre su m a b ly re po rt D K . T h u s if a re se a rc h er on ly w a nte d su bsta ntiv e an sw e rs from re sp on d e nts w h o w e re ce rtain th a t th e y w ere p ro v id in g v ery a c cu rate resp o n ses, (s)h e m igh t c on sid er u sin g fu ll filters a nd n ev e r p ro bin g D K s. T h is stra te g y is a n attem pt to re du c e e rrors o f co m m issio n . A n alte rn a tiv e stra teg y w o u ld be to a v oid e x plic it m e ntion o f D K a s a re sp o n se o p tio n , a nd in ste a d to rep e ate dly p ro b e all D K s. T h is stra teg y w ou ld en c ou ra g e resp o n d en ts to g iv e sub stan tiv e an sw e rs u n d er w id e circ um sta n ce s, w h e th er th ey w e re pre cise a n sw e rs o r w ild g u ess es. T h is strate gy w o u ld be a n attem p t to re d uc e erro rs of o m ission . C o llec tiv ely , w e refe r to th ese re sea rch d esig n d ec isio n s a s ``e rro r c o ntro l stra teg ies’ ’ . It is im p orta nt to p o in t o u t tha t th e ch o ic e o f a stra teg y in ev itab ly in v o lv e s tra de -o ffs. F o r e x am p le, su p po se a rese arc he r w an ts to e lim in a te erro rs of co m m issio n a nd d e cid e s to le gitim ize D K th ro u g h filtere d q ue stio n s. T h is
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d e sig n d e cisio n c o u ld a lso in a d v erte n tly c o nv in ce re sp o n de n ts th at th e ir k no w led g e is insu ffic ien t to justify an sw e rin g th e qu e stio nÐ re sp on d en ts w h o m a y o th erw ise h av e pro v id e d sub stan tive in fo rm a tio n . A lte rn ativ e ly , th e filte rs co u ld e n co u ra ge le ss m o tiv a te d resp o n de n ts to ta k e D K as a n ``e a sy o u t’ ’ . T h us, this attem pt to de c re a se erro rs o f co m m issio n , if too ex trem e, c o uld in c rea se erro rs of o m issio n . A ltern a te ly , rese arc h ers m ay d ec id e to p ro b e a ll D K re sp on se s in a n a tte m p t to co n v ert th em to su b stan tiv e re sp on se s. H o w e ve r, re spo n d en ts so m e tim e s an sw e r su rve y qu e stio n s w h en th e y h a ve little b asis to do so (S ch u m an & P resse r, 1 9 81 ; B ish o p , T u ch fa rbe r, & O ld e nd ic k, 1 98 6 ). T h is erro r co n tro l stra teg y c o u ld in ad v e rte n tly e n co u ra ge m ea n in gle ss resp o n ses b y sign a llin g tha t D K is u n ac c ep tab le. T h u s, the a ttem p t to d ec rea se erro rs o f o m issio n c ou ld inc rea se erro rs o f c o m m issio n.
Implications of the Response Basis Framework T his the oretica l fra m ew o rk ha s sev eral im plic atio ns fo r surve y research design. It sugg ests, first of all, the im p orta nce of carefu lly selectin g e rror c ontrol stra te gie s, w ith a fu ll un dersta nd ing of th e p otentia l trad e-offs inv olved in attem p ts to m in im ise e rrors o f om ission and c om m issio n. T h e fram e w ork ca lls for resea rc hers to c arefully c on side r th eir d ata n eed s (e .g . ho w sure sho uld respon de nts b e of the ir an sw ers in o rd er to prov id e substantiv e respo nses?). T h ese d ecision s nee d to be pa rtia lly b ased on an u nde rstand in g of the cog nitive states that respo nd ents tend to fa ll into. F or ex am p le, if respo nses ten d to b e ``a cce ssible’ ’ in m em o ry re ga rd in g a ce rtain top ic (bu t no t instantly ava ilab le), it m ay b e p ossib le to o btain high -q ua lity data throu gh prim ing m em o ries to aid rec all o r o th er prob in g. If re spon ses te nd to be ``ge ne ratab le ’ ’ , resea rc hers m ig ht re w o rk qu estion s so th at th ey m ea su re sim p ler c on cep ts. D ecisio ns reg arding th e exten t o f filterin g cou ld be b ased o n an u nde rstand in g of re sp on den ts’ c og nitive sta te s. T h e R e spo n se B asis F ram ew o rk a lso su gg e sts th at re se arc h ers sho u ld b e a s ex p lic it a s p o ssib le in d efin ing th e le ve l of p rec isio n tha t q u alifie s as a n ``ad eq u a te’ ’ re sp o nse . W e b e lie ve th a t v ery often resp o n de n ts p articip ate in su rv e y s w itho u t a c le a r u n de rsta n d in g o f ho w pre cise th eir a n sw ers sho u ld b e, an d m ak e su c h d ec ision s a rb itrar ily . A s w e ha v e sh ow n , re spo n d en ts w ith th e sam e le v el o f k no w led g e co u ld c o n ce iv a b ly c h o ose d iffe ren t resp o n se p a th s, w ith b o th b e lie vin g tha t the y a n sw e red c o rrec tly . In stru ctio ns in d ic a tin g tha t ``be st e stim ates a re a c ce p ta b le’ ’ o r ``if y ou ca n ’ t re m e m b e r e x ac tly , just sa y so ’ ’ m a y be q u ite u se fu l. A lso , th e fram e w o rk su g ge sts the im p o rta n c e of c o nsid er in g c om m u n ica tiv e inte nt in a n sw e rin g . R e sea rch e rs c a n m a x im ise tru thfu l c o m m un ic ative in ten t b y k ee p in g th e re sp on se b u rd en re a so na b le (C a n n ell e t a l., 1 98 1 ) an d p a yin g atten tion to p ro ce d u re s fo r c o lle cting d a ta on se nsitiv e top ic s (G fro ere r et al., 1 99 2 ; W illis, S irke n , & N a tha n , 1 99 4 ).
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Validating the Response Basis Framework T h e fo llo w ing ex p erim e n ts a re a p re lim ina ry a tte m p t to v a lid ate so m e co n ce p ts ex p resse d in th e fram e w o rk fo r u nd e rstan d in g ho w re spo n d en ts d eriv e the ir an sw e rs to su rv ey q u estio n s. If th e fra m e w o rk is to be a u sefu l to o l fo r g u idin g de c isio n s ab o u t c orre ct resp o n ses, g u e ssing , a n d D K s, it is im p ortan t to sh o w th a t it is p ossib le to id e n tify the co g n itive sta tes of re sp o n de n ts. U ltim ate ly , it is also im po rtan t to sh o w th at th e re sp on d e nt’ s le v el of kn o w le d g e, a lon g w ith pe rc eiv ed crite ria for ad e q ua te resp o n ses an d c o m m u nic ative in ten t, ca n b e ap p lie d to p red ict resp o n d in g . T h e fo c us o f th e se e x p erim e nt s is to test so m e o f th e assu m p tio n s o f th e R e sp o nse B a sis F ra m ew o rk Ð in p articu lar, tho se re ga rd in g c o gn itiv e state s (th e o th e r a ssu m p tio n s o n ad e qu a cy ju dg e m e n ts a n d co m m u n ic a tiv e in ten t w ill b e te ste d in futu re re sea rc h ). E x p e rim en t 1 inv e stig ate d w h eth er su b jec ts c o u l d id e n tif y w h ic h c o g n i tiv e sta t e s w e re in v o k e d b y v a r io u s s u rv e y qu e stio n s, a n d w he th er th e re p o rte d co g n itive sta te w o uld v a ry in e xp e c te d pa tte rn s. E x p e rim en t 2 in ve stig a te d fu rthe r w he th er the fo u r co g n itive state s ca n be vie w e d as a sc ala r o f kn o w a bility (i.e . lik e lih o o d tha t a resp o n d en t kn o w s, or is c a pa b le o f k n o w in g , th e in fo rm a tio n req u e ste d b y a surv e y qu e stio n ). T his e xp e rim en t ex a m in ed h o w ra tin g s of ``co n c ep t kn o w a bility ’ ’ fo r on e g rou p of sub jec ts c o va rie d w ith th e c o gn itiv e state s o f a no th er gro u p of su b je c ts.
EXPERIMENT 1 T h e first in v estig atio n ex a m in ed ho w re p orts of c o g nitive sta te v a ry w ith re sp ec t to se ve ral o the r im p o rta n t v aria ble s. S u b je c ts a n sw e re d sta nd a rd qu e stio n s fro m w e ll kn o w n su rv ey s re ga rd ing b oth th e m se lve s, a n d so m eo n e else livin g w ith th e m . R e sp on d e n ts g en e ra lly d raw o n d iffe re nt typ e s of k no w led g e a n d b e lie fs w h e n pro v id in g pro x y rep o rts ra th e r th a n se lf-re p orts (B la ir, M e n o n , & B ick a rt, 19 9 3 ; W e lle n s, 1 9 9 2). W e w o u ld ex p ec t tha t resp o n d en ts g en e rally h av e m o re pre c ise k n o w le d ge a b o ut th e ir ow n b e ha v io urs th an th o se o f o th e rs, so pro x y re sp o n ses m ay req u ire d iffe re nt retriev a l p ro ce sse s. E ve n w h e n a p ro xy h as th e ne c essa ry in form atio n a bo u t a n oth er p erso n , it m ay req u ire m o re e ffo rt to a cc e ss th is in fo rm a tio n . F urth e rm o re , w e e x p ec t th at pro x y re sp on d e nts w o uld ne e d to ge n era te re sp o nse s m ore o ften , a n d a lso m ore freq u e ntly b e u n a ble to pro v id e a re a so na b le re spo n se. C o g n itive sta te s sh o u ld a lso va ry w ith e x pe c te d fam ilia rity o f in fo rm a tio n to surv e y re sp on d en ts. F o r e x am ple , e m p lo y m e n t d e ta ils a re g en er ally m o re fa m iliar to p e op le th a n th e ir ex p en d itu re s. A c co rd in g ly , th e d istrib u tio n o f re p o rte d co g n itive state s w a s e xp e c te d to d iffe r as a fu n ctio n o f th e k in d o f in fo rm a tio n , o r kin d o f su rv ey , th at is pre se nte d to resp o nd e n ts. T h u s, su b jec ts w o u ld b e e x pe c ted to en g ag e in m o re d irec t re triev a ls a n d re co n stru c tiv e
``DON’T KNOW’’ RESPONSES IN SURVEYS
417
retrie v als an d le ss g u essin g w h en a n sw e rin g q u estion s ab o ut em p lo y m e n t tha n w he n an sw e rin g qu e stio n s ab o u t e x pe n d itu res . In th is e xp e rim e nt, w e w e re p rim a rily in tere sted in sh o w in g th a t a ctu a l su rv e y q ue stio n s req u ire d su b jec ts to dra w in fo rm atio n fro m the en tire ran g e o f co g n itiv e sta te s, a n d fu rth e rm o re th at su bje cts c ou ld disting u ish w h a t state rep rese n ted th e ir ow n le ve l o f k n o w le d ge . F o r co n sisten c y, w e in stru c te d su bje cts to a n sw er th e q u estion if at a ll p ossib leÐ thu s e nc o u ra g in g su b stan tiv e resp o n ses e v en if su bje c ts m ig h t be in th e ``ig n or an t’ ’ sta te . W e in d ic a te d tha t g ue ssin g w as a cc e pta ble , b ut th a t w e w a nte d to k n o w w h en th e y w e re gu e ssin g, an d w h e th e r the g u e ss h ad a b a sis (an ed u ca ted g u e ss) o r d id n o t h av e a rea so na b le b asis (a w ild g u ess ).
Method Su b jec ts. E ig h t a du lt m ale s a n d six a du lt fe m a le s pa rtic ip a ted in th e ex p e rim en t w ith ou t re im b u rsem en t. A ll su bje c ts w e re em p lo y ed a nd liv ing in a h ou se h old w ith an o the r em p lo y e d in div idu a l. M a teria ls. A 2 0 -qu e stio n in terv iew w as c on stru cte d to a sk su b je c ts a bo u t asp e cts o f th eir re c e nt em p lo y m e n t a nd e xp e nd itu re s. T e n e m p loy m e n t qu e stio n s an d ten ex p en d itu re qu e stio n s w e re e x tra cte d fro m the D e pa rtm e n t o f L ab o r’ s C urre n t P o p ula tio n S u rv e y a n d C o n su m e r E x p en d itu re In terv ie w S u rv ey , resp e ctiv ely , fo r u se in th e ex p erim e n t. T h e C u rre nt P o p u la tio n S u rv ey , w h ic h h elp s d ete rm in e e m p lo ym en t a n d un e m p lo ym en t statistic s, in clu d es qu e stio n s su ch a s ``H o w m a n y h ou rs p er w e e k d o y ou u su ally w ork a t th is jo b ? ’ ’ . T h e C on su m er E xp e nd itu re S u rve y , w h ich h e lp s d e term in e th e C on su m er P ric e Ind e x , in clu de s q u estio ns su c h a s ``S in c e th e first o f Ju ly ha v e yo u p urc h ase d an y c lo thin g , e ith e r fo r m e m b e rs of y o ur h o u seh o ld o r for so m e o n e o u tsid e yo u r h ou se h old ?’ ’ . T h e q u estio n s w e re o rga n ised into tw o se ts, o n e fo r self rep o rtin g an d o ne fo r p rox y rep o rtin g, w ith th e C u rren t P op u la tio n S u rv e y qu e stio n s p re c ed in g th o se from the C on su m er E x p en d iture S u rv e y . P ro c ed u re . E a c h sub jec t c o m p le te d th e inte rv ie w for him se lf o r h erse lf an d the n fo r an o th er em p lo y e d m em be r o f th e h o u seh o ld. Su b jec ts first re sp o nd e d to the q u estio n re ad b y th e in te rv ie w er an d th e n rep o rte d w h ich of fou r an sw e rin g p ro c esse s the y u se d to re trie ve the in form a tio n n e ce ssary for a nsw e ring th e q ue stio n . T he se a n sw e rin g p ro ce sse s w e re d irec t re ca ll, re co n stru ctio n , e d uc a te d g ue ssin g, a n d w ild g ue ssin g, w h ich co rre sp on d a p p ro x im a tely to th e c o gn itiv e states d e scrib ed e arlier. F o r the sub je cts, w e de fine d th e se a s follo w s: 1. D ire c t R e ca ll: Y o u re m e m b er q uic kly (see m in g ly w ith o u t e v en th in kin g ) an d y o u a re c ertain tha t yo u r re sp o nse is co rrec t.
418
BEATTY ET AL.
2 . R e co n struc tio n : It ta ke s so m e tim e for y o u to re m e m b e r. T o g e n era te a re sp o n se, y o u se a rc h y o u r m em o ry a nd pie ce bits o f in fo rm a tio n to ge th er. O n c e y o u rem em be r, y o u are c e rta in th at y o ur resp o n se is c orre ct. 3 . E d u ca ted G u e ss: Y o u h av e som e ge n era l kn o w led g e o r e xp e rien ce o n w h ic h y ou b a se y o ur re sp on se b u t a re n o t c ertain th at y o u r re spo n se is co rre ct. 4 . W ild G u ess: Y o u h a v e n o ba sis fo r y ou r resp o n se a n d a re v e ry u n su re tha t yo u r resp o n se is co rre ct. If su b jec ts re sp o n de d th a t th e y d id no t k no w th e a n sw er to a q u estio n, th e y w e re en c ou ra g ed to p ro v ide a n a nsw e r n ev e rth e le ss, an d to in d ic a te th eir c o gn itiv e sta te.
Results T h e p e rce nta g e o f q u estio n s a nsw ere d w ith a p articu la r p roc e ss w e re c om p u te d fo r ea ch su bje ct. T a b le 1 p rese nts the n u m b e r o f re sp on se s to e ac h q u estio n a s a fu n c tio n o f re sp o nse statu s (se lf o r p rox y ), su rv ey ty pe (e m p lo ym en t o r ex p en d itu re s), a n d an sw er in g p roc e ss (dire ct rec a ll, rec o n stru ctio n , e du c a te d gu e ss, o r w ild g u ess). A n a na ly sis of va rian c e w a s pe rform e d w ith rep e a te d m e a sure s o n all th re e ind e pe n d en t va ria b les. T h is a n aly sis fo u nd a sig n ifica n t m a in e ffec t fo r a n sw e rin g p ro ce ss [F (3 ,3 9 ) = 9 4 .2 3 , P < .0 0 1 ], a nd sig n ifica n t in tera c tio n s b etw ee n a n sw e rin g pro c ess an d su rv ey ty p e [F (3 ,3 9 ) = 30 .1 5 , P < .0 01 ] an d b etw e en an sw e rin g p ro ce ss a n d resp o n se statu s [F (3,3 9) = 5.8 3 , P < .0 5]. S u b jec ts re p orted the use o f d ire ct rec all fo r a m a jo rity o f th e q ue stio ns, re g a rdle ss o f resp o n se sta tu s o r su rv e y ty pe . S u b je c ts re po rte d th e u se of m o re ed u ca ted an d w ild gu e ssin g an d less rec o nstru ction w he n p rox y re p o rtin g tha n w h e n self re p ortin g. T h e su b je c ts re po rted th e use o f m o re re co nstru ctio n , ed u ca ted g u essin g, an d w ild gu e ssin g w he n an sw erin g q u e stio n s a b ou t ev e ryd a y ex p en d itu re s th a n w h e n a n sw erin g q u estio n s ab o ut e m p loy m e n t.
Discussion T h e re sults su g g est th at sub je cts a n sw e re d su rve y q u e stio ns o n th e b a sis o f diffe re n t co g n itive sta te s: th e se sta tes c o va ried w ith th e self/pro x y sta tu s of th e sub je ct an d th e e xp e c te d fa m ilia rity o f th e info rm a tio n . A d m itte d ly , o u r su b jec ts co u ld on ly rep o rt th e ir be lie fs ab o u t th e ir co g nitiv e sta te sÐ re p o rts th at c o uld b e sub je ct to e rro rÐ b u t th ese re po rts v a ry ac ro ss the ra n ge of p o ssible c o gn itiv e sta tes in a v ery rea so n ab le m an n e r. A su b sta n tia l p ro p ortio n o f su b jec ts b a sed m an y of th e ir a n sw ers o n a n ed u ca ted gu e ss o r a w ild g ue ss (ra ng in g from 5 .7 % to 4 9 .7 % fo r a to ta l o f bo th kin d s o f g u esse s a n d b oth k in ds o f surv e y s). A lso as ex p e cted , su b je c ts rep o rtin g as p ro xie s fo r a n oth e r pe rso n m a nifeste d a g rea te r g u e ssin g rate (18 .5 % fo r th e
TABLE 1 Proportion of Respondents Reporting Cognitive Strategies Used to Answer Survey Questions Drawn from the Current Population Survey and the Consumer Expenditure Survey SELF
PROXY
M em ory
G u e ss i n g
M e m o ry
D
R
E
W
D
R
G u e s s in g E
W
100
0
0
0
10 0
0
0
0
93
7
0
0
10 0
0
0
0
3 . F o r w h o m d o e s (n a m e ) w o rk ?
100
0
0
0
86
14
0
0
4 . O n th is jo b , i s (n a m e ) c o v e re d
100
0
0
0
71
7
7
14
21
50
29
0
14
21
36
29
35
86
7
7
0
100
0
0
64
29
7
0
64
29
7
0
50
36
14
0
14
7
71
7
100
0
0
0
79
14
7
0
93
7
0
0
79
14
7
0
5 .7
0
7 0 .7
1 0 .6
C u rr e n t P o p u la ti o n S u r ve y 1 . D id (n a m e ) d o a n y w o rk a t al l la s t w e e k , n o t c o u n tin g w o rk a ro u n d th e h o u s e ? 2 . D o e s ( n a m e) o p e ra t e (h is /h e r) o w n b u s in e ss o r fa rm ?
b y a u n io n o r e m p l o y e e a ss o c ia ti o n c o n tra c t? 5 . H o w m u ch d o e s (n a m e) u s u a lly e ar n p er w e e k a t th is jo b b e fo r e d e d u c tio n s? In c l u d e an y o v e rtim e p ay , c o m m is s io n s, o r ti p s u su a ll y re c ei v e d . 6 . D o e s (n a m e ) u s u a l ly w o rk . . . h o u rs o r m o re a w e e k a t th is jo b ? 7 . H o w m a n y h o u rs p e r w e ek d o e s (n a m e) u s u a l ly w o rk at th is jo b ? 8 . H o w m a n y h o u rs d id (n a m e ) w o rk la s t w e e k a t t h i s jo b ? 9 . D id ( n a m e) l o s e a n y ti m e o r ta k e a n y t im e o ff l a st w e ek fo r a n y re a s o n s u c h a s il ln e ss , h o li d a y , o r sl a ck w o rk ? 1 0 . D id ( n a m e) w o rk a n y o v e rti m e o r a t m o re t h a n o n e jo b l a st w e e k ? O v e ra ll p ro p o rt io n s o f c o g n itiv e
8 0 .7
1 3 .6
1 3 .5
5 .0
s tra te g ie s u s e d O v e ra ll p ro p o rt io n s m em o ry v s .
9 4 .3
5 .7
8 1 .3
1 8 .5
g u e s s in g (C o n tin u ed o v e rle a f)
419
TABLE 1 (Continued) SELF
PR OXY
M em ory
G u es s in g
M e m o ry
D
R
E
W
D
R
G u e s si n g E
W
1 00
0
0
0
79
14
0
7
0
8
46
46
25
0
38
38
71
29
0
0
57
14
14
14
4 . W h a t d id (h e /s h e) b u y ?
43
43
14
0
15
38
23
23
5 . In w h a t m o n th d i d (h e /s h e)
50
36
14
0
23
31
31
15
6 . H o w m u c h d i d i t c o st ?
50
29
14
7
8
8
38
46
7 . S in c e th e fi rs t o f (Ju ly ) h a s
79
14
7
0
50
21
14
14
33
17
33
17
0
25
0
75
1 00
0
0
0
93
0
7
0
0
43
50
7
0
0
43
57
2 1 .9
1 7 .8
7 .7
3 5 .0
1 5 .1
2 0 .8
2 8 .9
C u s t o m e r E x p e n d i tu r e S u r v e y 1 . S in c e th e fi rs t o f (Ju ly ) h a s (n a m e) p u rc h a s e d o r re n t e d a n y v i d e o ca s s e tt es , t ap e s , a n d d i sc s fo r y o u r h o u s e h o l d o r a s a g ift to s o m eo n e o u ts id e y o u r h o u s e h o ld ? 2 . W h at w as the cost o r w h at w as th e to ta l re n ta l e x p e n s e s in c e th e 1 s t o f (J u ly ), e x c lu d in g th e c u rre n t m o n th ? 3 . S in c e th e fi rs t o f (Ju ly ), h a s (n a m e) p u rc h a s e d a n y c lo th in g , e it h e r fo r m e m b e rs o f y o u r h o u s e h o ld o r fo r s o m e o n e o u ts id e y o u r h o u se h o ld ?
p u rc h as e (s e le c t o n e ite m fr o m # 4 )
(n a m e) p u rc h a s e d a n y m a g a z in e s n o t in c l u d e d i n a s u b s cri p ti o n ? 8 . W h a t w a s t h e to ta l e x p e n s e fo r t h e m ? 9 . S in c e th e fi rs t o f (Ju ly ) h a s (n a m e) p u rc h a s e d d in n e rs , o t h e r m e a ls o r s n a c k s in re st a u ra n ts , c af et e ria s , c a fe s, d ri v e -i n s , o r o t h e r s u ch p l a ce s ? 1 0 . W h a t w a s t h e u su a l m o n t h l y e x p e n s e fo r t h e s e p u rc h as e s? O v e ra ll p ro p o rti o n s o f c o g n itiv e
5 2 .6
s tra te g ie s u s e d O v e ra ll p ro p o rti o n s m e m o ry v s . g u e s s in g
420
7 4 .5
2 5 .5
4 0 .1
4 9 .7
``DON’T KNOW’’ RESPONSES IN SURVEYS
421
C urre n t P o p u lation S u rv e y qu e stio n s to 4 8 .9 % fo r the C o n sum er E x p en d iture S u rv e y q u estio n s) th an rep o rts a bo u t on e se lf (5.7 % fo r th e C urre n t P o p ula tio n S u rv e y q u e stio n s an d 25 .5 % fo r th e C o n sum e r E x pe n ditu re S u rve y q ue stio n s). In a d ditio n, a hig h er p e rce n ta g e o f an sw ers fo r e x pe n d itu re qu e stio n s inv o lv e d ed u ca ted a nd w ild g ue ssin g (2 5 .5 % fo r self resp o nse s a nd 4 9 .7 % fo r p ro x ies), c o m p a re d to em p lo y m e n t q u estio n s (5 .7 % fo r se lf re sp on se s an d 1 8.5 % fo r pro x ie s), su g g esting th at in d ivid u als a re m o re kn o w led g ea b le a bo u t the ir e m p lo ym en t th a n th eir ex p en d iture s. T h u s, su b jec ts a p pe a r to m ak e use o f a v ariety o f co g n itiv e sta te s w h ile an sw e rin g q u estio ns, an d it ap p ea rs tha t su bje cts are a ble to d istin g uish a m o n g th eir c o gn itive sta te s in a m an n e r tha t reflec ts o ur e xp e cta tio n s o f h ow th ey sh ou ld v a ry w ith re sp ec t to re sp o n se statu s an d info rm a tio n fam iliarity .
EXPERIMENT 2 B ase d o n th e re su lts of the first ex p erim e n t, it see m e d po ssible th a t p e op le c ou ld ind ica te o n a ratin g sc ale th e co g n itiv e state lik ely to b e e lic ite d b y su rv e y q ue stio n s, a nd tha t su c h ra tin g s c o uld pre d ic t an sw ers th a t re sp on d e nts w ou ld g iv e to surv e y q u estio n s. E x p erim en t 2 a ske d o ne gro u p o f su bje cts to ra te th e k no w a b ility of su rv e y q u estio ns, a n d the n u se d the se ra tin g s to p red ict th e resp o n d in g b y a n o the r g ro u p o f su b jec ts (th o se w h o resp o n d ed in E x p erim en t 1 ). B e c au se th e a m ou n t of k no w led g e a p erso n ha s is o ften d ire ctly re late d to the ir in tere st in th e k n o w le d ge , th e d esig n of th e sec o nd e xp e rim e nt in clu d ed a co n d itio n to asse ss w he the r su bje cts w ere ac tu a lly rating th eir kn o w led g e state o r sim p ly th e ir inte re st in a to p ic . A c co rd ing ly , E x p erim en t 2 a lso o b ta in e d rating s of th e im p o rta n c e of th e to pic s a dd re ssed by qu e stio n s, th e reb y p erm ittin g statistic al an a ly sis o f w h e the r a nsw e rin g stra teg y is b a sed o n k no w a b ility reg a rd le ss o f im p o rtan c e.
Method Su b jec ts. A to tal o f 76 su b je c ts w e re re cru ite d at G eo rg e W ash in gto n U niv er sity , G e o rge M a son U n iv ersity, a nd U n ion S ta tio n to p artic ipa te in th is p art of the stud y . P a rtic ip a n ts w e re p aid $ 10 fo r th eir tim e (fo ur su b je c ts w h o ca m e to the C o lle c tio n P ro ce d u res R ese ar ch L a b a t th e B u re au o f L ab o r S ta tistic s w e re p aid $ 1 5 fo r tim e a n d trav e l) a nd sign e d fo rm s, b efo re p artic ipa ting , a ssu rin g th em th a t a ll in fo rm a tio n c o lle cte d w o u ld b e he ld in stric t co n fid e n ce in ac co rd an c e w ith th e B u re au o f L a b or S tatistic s’ co n fid e n tia lity p olicie s. M a teria ls a n d P ro c ed u re . A ll su bje cts w e re g iv e n tw o q ue stion n aire s, on e for se lf a n d o n e fo r p ro x y re sp on se , c o nta in in g 1 0 qu e stio n s ex trac ted from th e C E a n d te n q ue stion s e x tra cte d fro m the C P S . S u b jec ts w e re ask e d to p e rfo rm o ne o f tw o ta sk s; 4 0 su bje c ts w e re a sk ed to e stim a te ho w like ly it is th a t p e op le
422
BEATTY ET AL.
kn o w ce rta in k ind s o f in fo rm a tion ab o u t the m selv es a nd the ir sp o use s, a n d 3 6 sub je cts w e re ask e d to estim a te h o w im po rta n t it is th at pe o ple k n ow ce rtain kin d s of in fo rm atio n a b ou t the m se lv es a n d th eir sp ou se s. S u b jec ts a n sw ere d th e self q ue stio nn a ire first a n d th e n th e p ro x y q ue stion n a ire . S u b je c ts pro v id e d the ir an sw e rs in th e fo rm o f a n u m b e r u sin g a 5 -po in t L ik er t sca le, w ith 1 b e in g e ith e r ``n o t at a ll lik ely ’ ’ o r ``n o t a t a ll im p o rtan t’ ’ , to 5 b e in g eithe r ``e x tre m ely lik ely ’ ’ or ``ex trem e ly im p o rta nt’ ’ .
Results T h e m e an rating s o f the lik e lih o o d o f k no w in g re q ue sted in fo rm a tion fo r se lf an d pro x y are sho w n in T a b le 2 . T h e k no w a b ility ratin gs a n d im p o rtan c e ra tin g s w e re c orre lated w ith th e p ro p ortio n of an sw e rs b ase d o n d ire ct re c all o r re c o nstru ctio n (``m e m o ry re sp on se s’ ’ ), a s op p o sed to ed u ca te d o r w ild g ue sse s fo r b o th se lf re p orts an d p ro xy re po rts (ba se d on T a b le 1 ). K n o w ab ility co rre la te d .7 3 0 w ith se lf-re p orte d m em o ry resp o nse s to the tw o su rv e ys; th e TABLE 2 Mean Ratings of Knowability and Likeability of Knowledge Needed to Answer the Questions in Table 1 K n o w a b i lity
L ik e a b i lity
S el f
P ro xy
Self
P r o xy
1
4 .6 3
3 .9 8
4 .1 4
3 .8 3
2
4 .6 8
4 .7 0
4 .0 6
4 .1 7
3
4 .6 0
4 .4 5
4 .4 7
4 .4 7
4
3 .7 3
3 .8 0
4 .4 4
4 .4 7
5
3 .6 8
3 .7 0
4 .6 4
4 .3 1
6
4 .6 5
4 .1 3
4 .2 2
4 .0 3
7
4 .3 8
4 .1 3
4 .1 9
4 .1 1
8
4 .1 0
3 .4 8
3 .8 1
3 .7 5
9
4 .3 3
4 .2 0
4 .0 3
3 .8 9
10
4 .4 5
4 .0 8
4 .1 4
3 .9 4
1
4 .2 0
3 .4 0
2 .7 2
2 .5 0
2
2 .6 8
2 .2 5
2 .5 3
2 .5 6
3
3 .8 5
3 .2 5
3 .1 4
2 .8 3
4
3 .2 8
2 .7 0
2 .6 7
2 .4 2
5
2 .5 5
2 .0 8
2 .1 1
1 .9 4
6
2 .9 8
2 .1 3
3 .3 1
2 .9 4
7
3 .5 5
2 .5 0
2 .3 1
1 .8 9
8
2 .0 8
1 .9 0
2 .2 8
2 .1 9
9
3 .7 0
2 .9 5
2 .7 8
2 .7 2
10
2 .4 0
2 .0 8
3 .3 1
3 .1 7
CPS
CE
``DON’T KNOW’’ RESPONSES IN SURVEYS
423
sam e c orre lation w ith p ro xy rep o rts w as .7 5 5 . In co n trast, im p o rta n ce ra tin g s co rrela ted .3 7 1 w ith se lf-re po rte d m e m o ry resp o n ses to th e tw o su rve y s; th e sam e c orre lation w ith p rox y rep o rts w as .3 7 3 . H o w e ve r, w h en im po rta nc e is p artia lled o ut o f co rrela tio n s o f kn o w ab ility rating s, th e pa rtia l co rrela tio n s rem ain esse n tia lly u nc h an g ed (.7 0 9 for self rep o rts; 8 7 7 fo r p ro x y re po rts) an d w he n kn o w ab ility is p artialled o u t o f c o rre lation s o f im po rtan c e ra tin gs, th e p artia l c orre lation co e fficie n ts rev e rse sig n su b sta n tia lly (± .2 8 9 fo r self re p orts; ± .7 33 fo r p rox y re p o rts). T hu s, k n o w ab ility u n d erlie s im p orta nc e ra tin g s b u t im p orta nc e d oe s n o t un d er lie kn o w ab ility ratin gs. E x a m in atio n of th e p ro x y an d self d ata in d ica ted tha t th e kn o w ab ility rating s w e re c o rre late d m o st stro ng ly w ith th e ed u ca te d g u esse s o f se lve s a nd w ith the w ild g ue sse s o f p rox ies. T h is p attern w as n o t e vid e nt in th e se lf im p o rtan ce rating s b u t w a s ev ide n t in th e p ro x y im p o rta nc e ra tin g s.
DISCUSSION T h e resu lts su p po rte d th e g en e ral h y po th ese s ab o u t k n o w a b ility a n d im po rtan c e. T h e pro b a bility o f g u e ssin g w as re late d to b oth k no w a bility a nd im p o rta n c e, b u t m o re stro n gly to k n o w ab ility . F in a lly , th e se tw o m ea su res o f q u estio n to pic rev e al th a t k n ow a b ility a nd im p o rta nc e v a ry a cro ss differ en t top ic s, su gg e stin g tha t m o re rese a rc h sho u ld e x am ine th e d iffere n ce s in the pro c ess o f qu e stio n an sw e rin g elicite d b y differe nt q u estio nn a ire s.
Cross Experiment Comparisons T h e re su lts o f E x p erim e nts 1 a nd 2 su pp o rt the assu m p tio ns o f the R e spo n se B asis F ra m e w o rk as th e y p e rta in to co g nitiv e sta tes. S u b je cts w ere a ble to d isting u ish at le a st fo ur c o gn itiv e sta tes th at c orre spo n d to the fram ew o rk an d are relate d to resp o n din g . S p e cific ally , th e re sea rch ex a m in e d h o w sub je cts’ co g n itiv e states rela ted to oth er su bje cts’ pe rce iv ed lik elih oo d th at: (1 ) th e to pic o f a q u estio n w o u ld b e kn o w n to a pe rso n (i.e . k n o w ab ility); a n d (2 ) tha t th e top ic w o uld b e reg a rde d a s im p orta n t to a p erso n . E x p erim e n t 1 su p po rted th is tax o no m y of c o g nitive sta te s. In E xp e rim e nt 2 , it w as hy p o the sised th at a s k no w a b ility in c rea se d, an sw erin g b a sed o n inf orm ation in m e m o ry w ou ld inc rea se an d w ild gu e ssin g w o uld de c rea se . A s ex p ec ted , th e resu lts sho w e d th at in cre as es in qu e stio n -top ic kn o w ab ility an d im p o rta n c e w e re c o rre late d w ith a d e cre ase in gu e ssing a n d an in cre ase d p re v ale n ce o f m e m o ry re sp o nse s. F u rth e rm o re, th e p artia l co rrela tio n c o efficie nts sh o w ed th a t th e re spo n se stra te g y d e pe n d ed o n k n o w a b ility a n d n o t o n im p o rt a n c e . W h e n th e i n flu e n c e o f im p o rta n c e w a s r e m o v e d fr o m th e co rrela tio n s b etw ee n k no w a b ility an d lik e lih o o d o f m e m o ry resp o n ses, th e p artia ls w ere esse n tia lly the sa m e as th e first-o rd e r c o rrela tio ns. A lte rna tiv e ly , w he n th e in flu e nc e o f kn o w ab ility w a s pa rtia lle d o u t o f th e c orre la tio n s b etw ee n im p orta nc e a n d lik e lih o o d o f m e m ory use , th e lik elih o od of d ire ct re trie v al an d
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ed u ca ted g ue ss shifted fro m b e in g p o sitiv e to n eg a tiv e . A sim ila r p a tte rn o f re su lts w a s fou n d fo r p rox y re spo n ses a s fo r se lf re sp o nse s (sho w n in T ab le 1), altho u g h th e p ro xy re sp o nse s rev e a le d a g re a te r inc lina tio n to w ild g u essin g (b a se d o n a lac k o f kn o w a bility ). T hu s, k n ow a b ility ra tin g s a c tu a lly re flec t lik ely de g ree o f k n o w led g e, ra th er th an the rate r’ s asse ssm e n t o f the q u estio n top ic ’ s im po rta nc e .
Conclusions T h e pre sen t fram e w o rk also assu m es th at jud g e m e n ts o f the ad e q ua c y o f a re sp o n se a n d th e c o m m itm en t to c o -o p e ra te w ith surv e y re se arc he rs are a s im po rta nt to pre d ic ting a resp o nse as are th e c o gn itiv e state s. A lth o ug h th is artic le re v ie w s ev id en c e su pp o rtin g the role o f ad e qu a c y ju d ge m e n ts a n d co m m u n ic a tiv e in ten t, fu tu re rese arc h w ill b e n ec e ssary to e v alu ate a ssum ptio n s ab o ut th ese tw o fa cto rs o f the fram ew o rk . T h e fram ew o rk a n d the sup p o rtin g re sea rch ha v e im p lic a tio ns fo r re spo n se ru le s fo r su rv e ys. S u b je c ts in this rese arc h w e re told th at an y re sp o nse w ou ld be ad e qu a te, im p ly in g th a t D K re sp o nse s sho u ld b e a vo id ed . T he y also re p o rte d th a t th e ir resp o n se s to so m e o f th e surv e y qu e stio n s w ere ba se d on a w i ld g u e ss a t b e st. In a c tu a l su rv ey s ettin g s, in te rv ie w e rs m a y in fa c t disc o ura g e D K resp o n ses (see , for e x am p le, G illjam & G ran b erg , 1 9 93 ); re su ltin g in sub sta ntiv e re sp o nse s b a sed on e x tre m e ly sca n t in fo rm a tio n . T h is re se a rc h su g ge sts th at if re sp on d en ts b e lie v e th a t w ild g ue sse s a re ad e qu a te, th e y m ay p ro vid e th em as su b stan tiv e re sp o n ses. R e sea rch e rs sho u ld se riou sly co n sid er w he th er it is w o rth w hile to a llo w su c h re sp o n ses, o r w h eth er it w o u ld b e p refe rab le to e xp lic itly en c ou rag e D K s rath er th a n w ild g ue ssing . F u rth e rm o re , a lth o u g h w e d id n o t e x p lo re th is sc e n a rio in t h e p re se n t ex p erim en ts, resp o n de n ts m a y a lso p rov id e D K s w he n sub sta n tiv e re spo n ses are pre fe ra b le to re se arc he rs, e ith er b e ca u se th ey b eliev e tha t th e ir c o gn itiv e sta te is in su ffic ie n t to ju stify a n sw erin g, o r tha t th e y lac k m o tiv a tio n to pro v id e a re sp on se . A ltho u g h m ore re sea rc h is cle arly n e ce ssary , the e x pe rim e n ts th a t w e h av e co n du c ted th us fa r su g g est th a t u n d ersta nd in g c o gn itiv e sta tes is use fu l fo r un d er sta n din g w h eth er re sp o n de n ts pro v ide su b stan tive resp o n se s b ase d o n m e m o ry , g u esse s, or w ith no rea l b asis fo r resp o nd in g . S u rv ey re se a rch er s ca n m a k e n u m e ro us de sign d e cisio ns th a t c a n in flue n ce th e ty pe o f re spo n ses pro v id ed , in c lud ing the u se o f filte rs, p rob e s, sp ec ify in g the ac ce p tab ility o f gu e sse s, a n d d e sign in g q u e stio n na ires th at m in im ise the b urd e n to m ain tain re sp o n de n t m o tiv ation . T he se d ec ision s ca n b e g u id e d b y a th eo ry a c co u n tin g fo r th e ro le o f c o gn itiv e state s, ad e qu a cy ju d g em en ts, an d c o m m un ica tive in ten t in d ete rm in in g re sp o n se o u tc o m e s, a nd the tra d e-o ffs in v o lv e d w ith v a rio u s erro r co n trol stra teg ie s. W ith c on tinu e d v a lid a tio n , the fram ew o rk m ay fill the n ee d fo r stron g e r th eo ry in th is a rea .
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M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 4 2 7 ±4 5 4
C o lle c tiv e M e m o r ie s o f G e r m a n s a n d J a p a n e se A b o u t th e P a st H a lf-c e n tu r y H o w a rd S c h u m a n a n d H iro k o A k iy a m a U n ive rsity o f M ic h ig a n , U S A
B aÈ rb e l K n aÈ u p e r F re ie U n iv e rsitaÈ t B e rlin , G e rm a n y
W e inv e st ig a te the c o lle c tive m em or ie s of tw o sa m p le s d ra w n in 1 9 91 , o n e f ro m th e fo rm e r W es t G e rm an y a n d o n e fro m Y o ko h am a, Ja pa n . In the e ar ly 1 9 9 0 s su ch s am ples in c lu d e d m a n y m e m b e rs o f W or ld W a r II co h or ts an d a lso c oh o rts b o r n l o n g a f te r th a t w a r h a d e n d e d . W e c o n si d e r th e r e la tio n o f a g e , co n c ep tu a lise d a s b irth c o h o r t, to the s alie n ce o f m e m o ries of n a tion a l a n d w or ld ev e n ts th a t w e r e m en tio n ed a s im p o rta nt in re sp o ns e to a q u ite g en e ra l op e n en d e d q u e st io n a bo u t th e p as t ha lf- ce n tu ry . T he re la tio ns a re sim ilar a c ro ss th e tw o c o un trie s in so fa r as ex ter na l e ve n ts lik e W or ld W a r II m ig h t ha v e h ad si m ila r im p a cts o n ea c h p o pu la tio n , w h ile e a ch co u ntry is d is tinc tiv e w ith r e ga rd to ev e nts th at es p e c ia lly im p ing e d u p o n it. H yp o th e se s a b ou t th e im po r ta n ce o f ad o le sc e n ce an d ea rly a d ulth o od to th e im p rin tin g o f m e m o rie s ar e g e ne ra lly co n fir m e d , b u t s e v e ra l ty p e s o f e v id en c e su g ge st th e n e ed to e x te n d th e de lim itin g ag e s to ea r lier th a n the m id - te e ns a n d la ter th an th e m id- tw e n ties . O th er e v id e n c e in dic ate s th e d e si ra bility o f dist in g u ish in g b e tw e e n re c en t e v e nts th a t ar e th e fo c u s o f m e d ia atte n tio n a n d ea rlie r e v en ts th at de p e nd m or e f ully on au to b io g ra p hica l m e m o ry .
R e q u e s ts fo r re p rin ts sh o u l d b e s e n t to H o w a rd S c h u m a n , 2 5 5 P o p h a m R o a d , P h ip p s b u rg , M a in e 0 4 5 6 2 , U S A . E m ai l: h s c h u m a n @ u m ic h .e d u T h e n a m e s o f t h e c o -a u th o rs , H i ro k o A k iy a m a a n d B aÈ rb e l K n aÈ u p e r, a re l is te d a lp h a b e ti c al ly ; t h e y c o n tri b u te d e q u a lly an d im p o r ta n t ly to t h is p a p e r. O u r re se a rc h a ls o d re w o n t h e a d v ic e , co o p e ra ti o n , a n d g o o d w i ll o f a n u m b e r o f p e o p l e in G e rm a n y , J a p a n , a n d t h e U n ite d S t a te s , fo r w h i c h w e a re e x t re m el y g ra te fu l. In G e rm an y , o u r q u e s tio n s w e re a d d e d to a s u rv e y h e a d e d b y P ro fe s so r W e rn e r W e i d e n fe ld a n d m o re d i re ct ly s u p e rv is e d b y F e li x L u tz ; o u r o w n p a rti c ip a tio n w a s a rra n g e d b y H an s J uÈ rg e n H ip p l er a n d N o rb e rt S c h w a rz . In J a p a n th e s u rv e y w a s h e a d e d b y P ro fe s s o r H iro s h i A z u m a a n d m o re d ire c tly su p er v i se d b y K e ik o T a k a h a sh i, w it h o u r o w n p a rti ci p a tio n fac i lita te d b y T o n i A n t o n u c c i a n d H iro k o A k iy a m a. T h e t ran s la ti o n o f o p en -e n d e d re s p o n s e s fro m J ap a n es e w a s d o n e b y D a v i d C ry s ta l an d N ao k o M o ri y o s h i; th e G e rm an tra n sl a tio n w a s b y B aÈ rb e l K n aÈ u p e r. F l o ri e n B o u w m e es te r h e lp e d d e v e l o p th e c o d es a n d a s s is te d in o t h e r w a y s w i th t h e J a p a n e s e d a ta . H e lp fu l c o m m e n ts o n a n e a rlie r d ra ft w e re p ro v id e d b y D a v i d G ra ff, H o rst -A lfre d H e in ric h , B a rry S c h w a rtz , a n d a n a n o n y m o u s re fe re e fo r M e m o r y. S u p p o rt fo r th e p re s e n t a n a ly s is c a m e p ri m a ri ly fro m a g ra n t fro m th e N a t io n a l In s ti tu te o f A g i n g (A G 0 8 9 5 1 ), w ith ea rl ie r s u p p o rt fr o m th e N a ti o n a l S c ie n c e F o u n d at io n (S E S -8 4 1 0 0 7 8 ).
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1 9 9 8 P s y ch o lo g y P re s s L td
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SCHUMAN, AKIYAMA, KNAUPER
I n ad d itio n , w e c o n si d er sp e c ia l typ e s o f m e m or ie s , s u c h a s th e e x te nt to w h ic h G e r m an s m e ntio n th e an n ih ila tio n o f Je w s d u ring W o r ld W a r I I an d Ja p an e se m en tio n the a to m ic b o m b in g o f H iro sh im a . N e ith e r e v e nt ap p ea r s o fte n in c o lle ctiv e m e m o rie s o f th e w a r , b ut ins te a d pe r so na l su ff er in g a s a r es ult of the w a r ’ s im p a c t o n o n e’ s o w n life is e sp e c ia lly pr o m in e nt in th e m em or ie s of W or ld W a r II c o h o rts. T h is find in g p o in ts u p th e d iffe re n ce be tw ee n w h at ob se r ve rs c h a ra c te rise as ` `c olle c tiv e m e m o ry ’ ’ a n d w h at s a m ple s ur ve y s in d ic a te a r e the a c tu a l m e m o ries o f th e g e n e ra l p ub lic .
INTRODUCTION G e rm an y an d Jap a n sh are a u n iq u e histo ry: a llies d u rin g W o rld W ar II, d e spite ra c ia l b e lie fs th a t in e ac h c ase m igh t ha v e e xc lud e d th e o the r; in itial suc c ess o f an ex tra o rd in a ry n atu re in th e e arly m o n th s o f th e w ar, fo llo w ed by to tal d e fea t an d o c cu p a tio n b y th eir e n em ie s; sub se qu e n t c re a tio n o f d e m o c ra tic co n stitu tio na l re gim es, h ea v ily in flu en c ed b y the id eo log ies o f th e se fo rm e r e ne m ie s; an d fin ally, ph o en ix -lik e e m e rg e n ce fro m p o st-w a r sh am b les in to e co n o m ic po w e rho u se s, th ou g h still co n stra ine d p olitica lly an d m ilita rily b y th e ir p rev io us w a r-tim e h isto rie s. T h ere are a lso la rge d iffere n ce s b etw ee n th e tw o co u ntries, no t on ly cu ltu ra lly b u t e ve n in re la tion to W orld W ar II. In p artic ula r, a s B u ru m a (1 9 9 4) e m ph a sises, G e rm a n an d Jap a ne se pe rsp ec tiv e s on W o rld W ar II h av e be e n influ en c ed by tw o v e ry differ en t w ar-tim e e ve n ts w ith lo ng -la stin g re v e rbe ration s. F or G erm a ns, th e de lib e ra te a n d sy stem a tic a n n ih ilation o f Jew s in larg e p a rts o f E u rop e cre ate d a ``c o lle ctive m e m o ry ’ ’ o f ha v ing b ee n v ic tim i se r s th a t is d if fic u lt to o v e rc o m e a n d w h ic h le a d s to re p e a t e d ad m on ish m e n t to d o ``th e lab o u r o f m o u rn in g ’ ’ (``T ra ue ra rb eit’ ’ , M itsc he rlic h & M itsc h e rlic h , 1 9 7 5 ). F o r Ja p a n e se , o n th e o th e r h a n d , th e d om in a n t co lle c tiv e m em ory is o ften sa id to b e o f th e m se lv e s as v ic tim s of th e first u se of th e ato m ic b o m b : ``T o th e m ajo rity o f Ja p an e se, H iro sh im a is the su p re m e sym b o l o f th e P a cific W a r’ ’ (B u rum a, 1 99 4 , p .9 2 ). O n e c on trast tha t B u ru m a co n sid ers b u t ap p ea rs to re je ct is th at o f e n du rin g differe n ce s in n ation a l ch a rac ter, fo r ex a m p le , B en ed ic t’ s (1 9 46 ) d istin ctio n b e tw e en ``g u ilt’ ’ a n d ``s ha m e ’ ’ c u ltu resÐ the fo rm e r ap p lyin g m ore to G e rm a n y a nd the la tte r to Jap a n , so th at pu b lic co n fessio n w o u ld b e e nc o ur ag e d b y G e rm a n s b u t av o ide d by Ja pa n e se. B o th th e sim ila rities a n d th e d iffe ren c e s o f th e tw o p e op le s m a ke a co m pa rison o f th eir salien t m e m o rie s o f c o nsid e rab le inte rest to d a y w h en ea c h po p u lation still in c lu d e s su bsta ntia l p ro p or tio ns th a t ex p e rie nc e d the e v en ts o f W o rld W ar II at d iffe ren t a ge s a n d a lso su b stan tial p rop o rtio n s b orn w e ll afte r th e e nd of th e w ar. A cc o un ts su c h as B u ru m a ’ s (1 9 94 ) d raw m a in ly o n co n ve rsa tio n s w ith po litica l an d inte lle ctu al figu re s, p lu s o bse rv a tio ns b a sed o n film s, b o o ks, a n d o th e r c ultu ral o b jec ts. H o w w e ll th e y reflec t th e co lle c tiv e m e m o ries o f the larg er p u b lic in e ac h co u n try is im p o ssib le to tell. F o r th is pu rp os e, sam p le su rv e y da ta a re e ssen tia l.
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W e u se th e te rm ``co llec tiv e m e m o rie s’ ’ in the p lu ra l, as d istin ct fro m th e sing u la r form th at d ate s fro m H alb w a ch s (1 9 5 0/1 9 8 0) a nd is c o m m on tod a y in so cial scie nc e w ritin g . T h e p lura l ``m e m ories’ ’ ind ica tes tha t o u r re sea rch elicits the m e m o rie s o f sa m p le s o f in d ivid u als, w h e rea s m o st stu d ies o f co llec tiv e m e m o ry a re c on c ern e d w ith h o w ``o b jec ts’ ’ o f m e m o ry a re rep re sen te d in so m e co llec tiv e fo rm , a s in statu es, la ng u ag e , film s, o r o th e r sy m b o ls (e.g . P e n ne b ak e r & B a na sik , 1 99 7 ; S c hu d so n , 1 99 2 ; S ch w a rtz , 1 9 8 2). A t th e sam e tim e , re te n tio n o f th e w o rd ``c o lle ctiv e’ ’ refle cts o u r co n tinu e d foc u s o n n atio n a l co llec tiv itie s b y th e q u estio ns w e a sk a n d th e th eo re tic al po p u lation w e a tte m p t to rep re sen t for e a ch c ou n try . In th is w ay o u r rese a rc h rem ain s c o nn e c te d to so c ia l scie nc e w riting th at d ea ls w ith ``g ro up , in stitu tio n a l, an d cu ltu ra l re c o lle ction s o f th e p ast. . . .’ ’ (S ch u d son , 19 9 2 , p .3 ; see also S ch w artz , 1 9 82 .)
THEORETICAL ISSUES O ur re sea rch w as in itially g u id e d b y p a st w o rk th at em p h asise d th e sign ifica nc e o f a d ole sce n ce a nd e arly ad u lth o o d a s an im p orta n t lo cu s o f m e m o rie s g en e rally, inc lud in g in d ivid u al m em o rie s o f n ation a l an d w o rld e v en ts. In soc iolo g y th e m a jor im p etu s fo r th is p e rspe ctiv e o n th e life c o urse w as first d ev e lop e d b y K arl M an n h eim (1 9 2 8 /1 9 52 , p .2 9 1 ) w ith reg a rd to ``m o d e s of b e ha v io r, fee ling s, an d tho u g h t’ ’ . A sy stem atic e ffort to tes t M a nn h e im ’ s id e as a s the y m ig ht a pp ly sp ec ific ally to m e m o rie s w as m a d e b y S ch u m a n a n d S co tt (1 98 9 ) u sin g a U S n ation a l sa m p le , an d th ere is a lso ea rlie r rela ted w o rk b y R o b e rts a n d L an g (19 8 5 ). In p sy ch o lo gy th e im p orta nc e o f the se sa m e y ea rs fo r m e m o ry w a s d ev e lo p ed in d ep e nd e n tly b y R u b in, W e tzle r, an d N e be s (1 9 86 ) a n d F itzg e rald (19 8 8 ). W e a tte m p t to re p lic a te the se pa st fin d in g s in G erm a ny a n d Ja pa n , a n d to d o so w ith c on sid era b le p re c isio n at sev e ral p o in ts w ith reg a rd to th e co n ne c tio n o f a sp e cific c oh o rt to a pa rtic u la r ev en t, n o tin g a lso h o w th e critic a l a ge from w hic h a m e m o ry o rig in ates c a n v a ry d ep e n d in g on th e n atu re o f the ev e n t. S ec o nd , w e a ssess th e d e g re e to w h ic h a c o lle ctiv e m e m o ry su ch as th e H olo ca u st or H iros him a th at h as b e en a ttrib ute d to v irtu ally a w h ole so cie ty is ac tua lly sa lie nt in th e m em o rie s re p orte d b y re pre se nta tiv e sa m p les o f th ese sam e so c ieties. T h is w ill also ra ise a rela te d issu e : th e co n ne c tio n b etw ee n ch a rac terisatio n s o f a p a st ev e n t thro u gh m e d ia a c co u n ts, co m m e m o ration s, o r o th e r cu ltu ra l c o nstru c tio n s an d the e xte nt to w hic h o rd in a ry p eo p le ad o p t th e sam e ch ara cte risa tio n . T h ird , w e e x plo re th e fo rce s th a t d isting u ish m em orie s o f e a rlier ev e nts from m e m o ries o f v ery rec en t ev en ts. S p ec ific ally , w e hy p o th e sise th a t m e m orie s o f ea rly n ation a l e ve n ts a re lik e ly to d ep e nd m o re h ea v ily o n pe rso na l e x pe rien c e, w he rea s m e m o ries o f re ce nt n ation a l e ve n ts c an b e d u e la rg e ly to an em ph a sis b y the m ed ia o n w ha t is h a pp e n ing ``n o w ’ ’ . T h is also c o rre sp o nd s ap p rox im a tely to the d iffere n ce b e tw e e n e piso d ic o r au tob io g ra p h ic a l m e m o ry a n d se m a ntic o r fac tua l m e m o ry . P e rson a l e x p erie nc e an d m e d ia e m p h asis a re c ertain ly n o t m u tua lly ex c lu siv eÐ a re c en t e ve n t em ph a sised b y the m ed ia ca n also h av e w id e
430
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au to bio g ra p h ica l im p a ctÐ b ut w e b eliev e th a t the b ala nc e o f th e tw o fo rc es in 1 cre a tin g m em or ie s is like ly to v ary be tw ee n ea rlie r a n d re c en t ev e nts.
THE DATA FROM JAPAN AND GERMANY T h e G e rm a n an d Jap a ne se surv e y s w e d ra w o n w e re u n de rtak en se p ara te ly a n d th e re w ere en o u g h d iffere nc e s be tw e e n th em to req u ire c au tio n in d irec t co m pa rison . (T h e differe n ce s o c cu rred b e ca u se o u r q u estion s w e re a d d ed to la rge r surv e y s d irec ted by oth ers, a n d h a d to b e ad a p ted to th e e x ig e nc ie s o f th o se surv e ys a n d to the p o p ula tio ns u n d er stu d y.) T h ere fo re, w e re po rt th e in itia l re su lts o f ea ch inv e stig atio n se pa ra te ly in its o w n term s . H o w e ve r, the re a r e fu n d a m e n t a l s im i la r iti e s in b o th t h e o v e ra ll s t ru c t u r e o f th e tw o in v e stig atio n s a nd in th e ir resu lts, so a t p o ints alo n g th e w a y a n d m ore fully after pre sen ting th e fin d in g s fo r ea c h co u ntry , w e d iscu ss b o th sim ila rities a n d diffe re n ce s b etw ee n th e tw o c ou n trie s an d d ra w c on c lu sio n s a b ou t co lle c tiv e m e m o ries m ore g en e ra lly .
The Events Questions B o th su rve y s sta rte d from th e o p en -e nd e d q u estion u se d in 1 9 85 by S c h u m a n an d S co tt (1 9 8 9, p.3 63 ) to stu d y A m erica n m e m o ries o f th e pa st ha lf-c e ntu ry : T h e re h a v e b e e n a lo t o f n a tio n a l a n d w o rld e v e n ts a n d ch a ng e s ov e r th e pa s t 50 y e a rsÐ sa y , f ro m a b o ut 1 9 3 0 r ig ht u p u ntil tod a y. W o u ld y o u m e ntio n o ne o r tw o s u ch e v en ts o r c h a n ge s th a t s e em to y o u to h a v e b e en e sp e c ia lly im p o rtan t. T h e re a r en ’ t a n y righ t o r w ro n g a ns w er s to th e q u es tio n Ð ju st w h a te ve r n a tion a l or w or ld e v e nts o r c h an g es o v e r th e p a st 50 y e a rs th a t c o m e to m in d a s im p o rtan t to y o u .
1
2
H e re w e fo llo w T u l v i n g (1 9 7 2 , 1 9 8 3 ) i n tre a t in g ep is o d i c a n d a u to b io g ra p h ica l m e m o ry a s
e ss e n tia ll y th e sa m e . C o n w a y (1 9 9 0 ) p o in ts o u t th a t fa c tu a l k n o w le d g e a b o u t o n e ’ s s e lf (e .g . k n o w i n g o n e ’ s d a te o f b irth ) c an b e c o n s id e re d a fo rm o f a u to b i o g ra p h ic al m em o ry , b u t fo r t h e p u rp o s e o f th e p re s e n t a rti cl e th e im p o rta n t d is ti n c ti o n is b e tw e en k n o w le d g e re m em b e re d in t e rm s o f p e rs o n a l e x p e rie n c e a n d k n o w le d g e in th e fo rm o f l ea rn e d in fo rm a t io n n o t t ie d to m e m o rie s o f p e rs o n a l e x p e rie n c e i n a p a rt ic u la r tim e a n d p l ac e . W e id e n fe l d a n d L u t z (1 9 9 4 ) d is t in g u is h ``e x p eri e n t ia l’ ’ fro m ``a c q u ire d ’ ’ a t titu d e s , a so m e w h a t s im il a r d is t in ct io n in th is c o n te x t to e p is o d ic v e rs u s s e m a n t ic . 2
A s is e v id e n t fro m th e w o rd i n g , t h e ti m e p e rio d w a s n o t i n t e n d e d to b e ex a c tly 5 0 y e a rs , b e c a u se in
1 9 8 5 th a t w o u ld h a v e m a d e 1 9 3 5 th e p re c is e s t ar tin g p o i n t , w h e re a s th e b e n c h m a rk o f ``a b o u t ’ ’ 1 9 3 0 ’ ’ w as a ls o in c lu d e d i n th e q u e s ti o n . T h e a u t h o rs h a d w is h e d to a ll o w re sp o n d e n t s to i n c lu d e m e m o ra b le e v e n ts fro m t h e e arl y 1 9 3 0 s (e sp e c ia ll y t h e D e p re s s io n a n d re la t ed p o litic a l h a p p e n i n g s ) w i th o u t w o rry in g a b o u t t h e e x a c t s ta rt in g y ea r. N o t e a l so th a t th e w o rd in g o f th e q u e s tio n i s in te n d e d t o a l lo w , b u t n o t re q u ire , re s p o n d e n t s to ch o o s e e v e n ts th at h a d a d ire c tl y p ers o n a l im p a c t. A la t e r sp li t-s am p le e x p e rim e n t w as c a rrie d o u t in th e U n ite d S ta t es to d e t erm i n e w h e th e r o m i ttin g t h e p o s s ib ly p e rs o n a lisi n g w o rd s ``to y o u ’ ’ a t th e e n d o f th e m a in q u e s tio n w o u ld a ffe c t th e k in d o f e v e n t s ch o se n (S c h u m a n & R i eg e r, 1 9 9 6 ). O f 2 6 e v e n ts m e n tio n e d , o n ly tw o s h o w e d a s ig n i fic a n t d iffe re n c e b e tw e en e x p e rim e n t a l fo rm s (P < .0 5 , b a s e d o n N s o f 4 5 5 a n d 4 5 9 ) , b o th e v en ts b e in g in fre q u e n t i n c h o ic e o v e ra ll, a n d n o e v e n t s h o w e d a s i g n ifi ca n t a g e b y fo rm in te ra c tio n . T h e e x p e ri m en t s u g g e s ts th a t th e b a s ic q u e st io n f o rm u la ti o n is r o b u s t , n o t c h a n g e d im p o rt an tl y b y m in o r d i ffe ren c e s i n w o rd i n g .
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
431
[I f on ly on e m en tio n a sk ] I s th er e a n y o th e r n a tio n al o r w o rld e ve n t or ch a n ge o v e r th e p as t 50 ye a rs th a t yo u f ee l w a s es pe c ia lly im p or ta n t? [A fte r e v e n ts a r e n am ed :] W h a t w as it a b ou t . . . th at m a ke s it se e m e sp ec ially im p o rtan t to y o u ?
T h e re q ue st to n am e im p ortan t e ve n ts a n d ch a ng e s m a y a p p ea r at first to a sk for ju dg e m en ts, ra th e r th a n m e m o rie s. H o w e ve r, th e q u estio n ta p s m e m o ries in the sen se o f w h a t is m os t sa lie nt or a cc essib le to resp o n d en ts, w h at ``c om e s to m in d’ ’ m o st rea d ily w h en th ey try to re c all p ub lic ev en ts o f th e p a st h alf-c e ntu ry w ith o u t an y g uid an c e o the r th a n th e su b je c tiv e w o rd ``im p o rta n t’ ’ . E vid e n ce from p ast re sea rc h w ith the sa m e q u estio n po in ts to th e im p ortan c e o f m e m o ry to th e ta sk (S ch u m a n & S c o tt, 19 8 9 ) an d is co n siste n t w ith oth e r e v id e n ce a bo u t w ha t is m e m o ra b le in pe rson a l live s (R u b in, R a hh a l, & P oo n , 1 9 9 6). F u rth e r 3 ev id en c e w ill b e p re sen ted h ere . W h en th e q u estion w a s a d ap ted fo r th e G e rm an su rv ey in 1 9 9 1, th e 5 0 -y ea r p eriod w as u p d ate d an d state d to b e fro m ``ab o u t 1 9 40 ’ ’ . T a ke n lite rally th is w ou ld elim in ate th e e a rly y ea rs o f N a z i ru le , a lth o u gh it in clu d e s a lm o st th e en tire W o rld W a r II p eriod , as w ell a s th e sy stem a tic e ffort to a nn ih ilate th e Jew s. H ow e v er, as in th e e arlie r U S stu d y , th e w o rd ``a b ou t’ ’ (G erm a n : ``e tw a ’ ’ ) b efo re 1 9 4 0 a llo w e d re sp on d e nts fre ed o m to re ac h b ac k in to th e 19 3 0 s an d sev e ral refe rre d to H itler’ s ac c essio n to po w e r in 1 9 3 3. T h e fu ll G e rm a n w o rdin g 4 is g iv en in th e A p p en d ix. A d iffe ren t p ro ble m p re se nte d itself w h e n th e o rig in a l E n g lish qu e stio n w a s ad a p te d for th e Jap a n ese su rv ey . T h e ch ron olo gy use d in th e W e st is no t so w ell k no w n in Jap an , an d in ste a d it w a s n e ce ssar y to refe r to ``th e b eg in n in g o f th e S h ow a E ra ’ ’ , th e start o f th e re ig n of E m p e ro r H iro hito [lite rally 1 9 26 ], in d esc rib in g th e p erio d to b e c o nsid e re d . T his pla ce d th e fo rm a l starting p o in t b ac k e v en ea rlie r th a n 1 9 30 b ut, a s w ill b ec o m e ev id en t, few if a n y resp o n de n ts refe rre d to th e p re -W o rld W ar II p erio d. T he o rig in a l Jap a n ese q u estion is also inc lud e d in th e A p p e nd ix , an d b ac k tra nsla tio n s in to E n g lish sh o w hig h co n sisten c y w ith the o rig in al. 3
W h e n a c o m p re h en s iv e l is t o f e v e n ts s u c h a s W o rld W a r II w a s p re s e n t ed to a s a m p le o f
A m e ric a n s , th e ir c h o ic e s o f w h i ch w er e m o st i m p o rta n t n o lo n g e r s h o w e d th e re la ti o n s to c o h o rt d e s c rib e d l at e r h e re (u n p u b li sh e d d a ta ). In th is c as e , o n l y j u d g em e n t w a s i n v o l v e d , n o t m e m o ry . 4
T w o p ro b l em s o c cu rre d w i th th e G e rm a n tra n sl a tio n . F irs t, th e fo l lo w -u p `` W h y ’ ’ q u e st io n
o m i tte d t h e G e rm a n fo r th e w o rd ``s e e m s’ ’ a n d m a y e m p h a s is e m o re t h a n th e o rig in a l E n g l is h a p u re ly p e rso n a l e x p la n a tio n fo r c h o o s in g a n e v e n t. I t i s p o ss i b l e th a t th is in c re a se d th e p ro p o r tio n o f p e rs o n a l e x p la n a tio n s, b u t th e e x p e rim e n t re p o rt ed i n fo o t n o te 2 p r o v id e s so m e re a s s u ra n c e o n th is p o in t, a s d o e s t h e f ac t th a t a g re a t m a n y G e rm a n s g av e im p e rs o n a l e x p la n a tio n s fo r c h o o s in g m a n y e v e n ts (s e e la t er m e n t io n o f t h e la rg e d iffe re n c e b e t w e e n p e rs o n a l e x p la n a tio n s fo r W o rl d W a r I I a n d fo r R e u n ifi ca tio n ). A se c o n d d i ffe re n c e b e tw e e n t h e G e rm a n a n d o rig in a l A m e ric a n q u e st io n s is th a t th e `` w h y ’ ’ q u e st io n w a s a s k e d b e fo re t h e i n t erv ie w e r h a d t rie d t o o b t a in a s e c o n d e v en t w h en o n ly o n e h a d b e e n g iv e n s p o n ta n e o u s ly . It is d o u b t fu l t h a t th is h a d a n y su b st a n t iv e e ffe c t, b u t i t m a y h a v e a ffe c te d t h e p ro p o rt io n o f p e o p le w h o g a v e a t l e a st tw o e v e n t s .
432
SCHUMAN, AKIYAMA, KNAUPER
In m a k in g c o m p a riso n s b e tw e en G erm an a n d Ja pa n e se resp o nse s (or be tw e e n eithe r an d ea rlie r rese arc h on the U n ited S tate s), w e h a ve k ep t in m in d th e diffe re n ce s in th e start d ate g iv en to re spo n d en ts, b ut th e p rac tic al effe ct o f th is w ill b e se e n to b e n e glig ible . T h e e n d in g da te o f ``to d a y ’ ’ g iv e n in th e tw o co u ntrie s w a s alm o st id e n tic al, a s b o th su rve y s w ere ca rrie d o u t in e a rly 19 9 1 : th e Jap a ne se surv e y ra n fro m D e ce m be r, 1 9 90 , in to F e b ru a ry, 1 99 1 ; th e G e rm a n 5 surv e y fro m Ja n ua ry , 1 9 91 , in to M a rch , 1 9 9 1.
Sampling Considerations T h e G erm an d a ta w e re g ath ere d as p art o f a fac e -to -fac e su rv e y o f W e st G e rm an y (F R G ) b y th e In stitu t fuÈ r D e m o sk o pie A lle n sb ac h . T h e sa m ple em p lo y ed qu o ta s fo r lo ca tio n (b y state an d siz e o f c o m m un ity ), a ge , ge n d er, e m p lo y m e n t st a tu s , a n d o c c u p a ti o n , a n a p p r o a c h A l le n s b a c h h a s u s e d suc c essfu lly for a n um b e r of y ea rs. N o resp o n se rate is p o ssible fo r th is qu o ta-ty pe sa m p le . H o w ev e r, w e co m p are d th e sa m p le re su lts a g ain st ce n su s da ta for 19 9 1 for ag e , g e nd e r, e d u ca tio n , an d state o f resid en c e, a nd th e co rre spo n d en c e w a s n e arly p e rfe c t b y ag e , ge n de r, a n d sta te , a nd w ith so m e ov e rin c lusio n by se ve ral p erc en ta ge po in ts o f th e un iv ersity e du c a te d a n d un d er in c lu sion o f the lea st e d u ca ted Ð a c o m m on o u tc o m e o f a lm o st all c ro sssec tio n su rv e y s. O u r fin al G erm a n sa m p le siz e is 7 28 , a fter o m ittin g a sm all 6 nu m b er of ca se s (2 4 ) w ith m issin g da ta o n the E v en ts qu e stio n . W e sho u ld em p ha sise tha t w e m ak e n o atte m p t to ge n era lise o u r re su lts to w ha t w a s fo rm e rly E ast G e rm an y (G D R ), w h ic h ha d a q u ite d iffe re nt po st-w ar h isto ry fro m W e st G e rm a ny (se e, fo r e xa m p le , W e id e n feld & L u tz, 1 99 4 ). T h e Ja p an ese sa m p le th a t p rov id ed su bsta ntiv e resp o n se s to o u r q u estio n s 7 co n sists of 84 3 re spo n d en ts d raw n fro m th e G re ater Y ok o h am a are a. T h e 5
O n e o th e r d iffe re n c e b e tw e e n th e G e rm a n an d J a p a n e s e q u e s tio n s w a s in q u e s tio n n a ire l o c a ti o n .
O u r c o ll ec t iv e m e m o ri e s q u es t io n s in th e G e rm a n s u rv e y c a m e a t a lm o s t th e b e g in n i n g , a s w as m o s t d e s ira b le . T h e c o l le c tiv e m e m o rie s q u e s tio n s in th e Ja p a n e s e su rv ey c a m e a t th e v e ry e n d o f th e in te rv i e w , b u t th e res t o f t h a t s u rv e y d e a lt w it h m a t te rs e n t ire ly u n re la te d to m e m o ri e s o f th e p a st , p ri m ar ily is s u e s o f s o c ia l rel a tio n s a n d m en ta l h e a lth . T h e m a in d is a d v a n t ag e o f h a v in g o u r q u e st io n s a t th e e n d o f w h a t w a s a l o n g in te rv ie w co n si s tin g o f a g re a t m a n y c l o s e d q u e s ti o n s , w a s th a t m a n y re sp o n d e n t s w e re tire d a n d si m p l y s a id ``d o n ’ t k n o w ’ ’ to o u r o p e n -e n d e d q u e s ti o n s , as n o te d la t e r. 6
B e ca u s e o f l im it a tio n s o f re s o u rc e s w e h a d n o t em p lo y ed th e fu ll o rig in a l G e rm a n s a m p le
(N = 2 0 1 6 ), b u t d re w fro m it ra n d o m ly a n a p p ro x im a te 4 0 % s u b s a m p le to u s e fo r a ll tr an s la ti o n , c o d in g , a n d a n a ly si s . W e al s o o m i tt ed c o m p le te l y th e s m a ll n u m b e r o f re s p o n d e n ts (n = 2 1 ) le s s th a n 1 8 y e a rs o f a g e, b o t h to a ll o w f o r th e m o re u s e fu l c o n tro l o f e d u c a t io n a n d to m a k e th e fin d in g s c o m p a rab le to p re v io u s p u b l is h e d a n a ly se s w ith A m e ric a n d a ta . (C a s e s m is s in g o n s o m e o t h e r, b u t n o t al l, v a ri ab le s re m a in in th e s a m p l e , b u t w h e n th e e v e n ts q u e s ti o n is c ro s s- ta b u la te d w ith a g e, th e sa m p le s iz e b e c o m e s 7 0 6 .) 7
Y o k o h a m a ci ty itse lf h a d a n e s tim a te d p o p u la ti o n i n 1 9 9 4 o f 3 .3 m illio n , n o t c o u n ti n g
su rro u n d in g to w n s . W e h a v e a g a in o m itte d fro m o u r s a m p le a ll re s p o n d e n ts u n d e r 1 8 y e a rs o f a g e a n d a ls o o m itte d a s p e c ia l su p p l em e n ta ry s am p le o f m o th e rs , w h o a re n o t p a rt o f o u r ta rg e t p o p u la t io n .
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
433
Ja p a n e s e s a m p l e h a d b e e n c o n s tru c te d u sin g d is p r o p o rt io n a te st ra t ifi e d p r o b a b ili ty s a m p lin g w ith i n a g e /g e n d e r c a te g o rie s i n o rd e r to in c re a se rep rese n tation fro m o lde r a ge gro u p s. D e v ia tio n s fro m th e n atio n a l p o p ula tio n b y g en d er w ere sligh t, bu t th e sam p le is o v e rw eig hte d a t th e o lde r a g e en d (6 0 an d ab o v e). T h is d o e s n o t bia s o u r prim ary in tere st in asso c ia tio n s w ith ag e itse lf, a nd ha s th e a d va n tag e o f in c rea sin g th e sta b ility o f re su lts fo r o lde r a d ults w he n sh ow in g p e rc e nta g es b y a g e. H o w e ve r, w h e re w e p re se n t u n iv a ria te resu lts inte n d ed to pro v ide a p p ro xim ate rep re se nta tion o f th e Ja p an e se na tion a l p op u latio n, w e h a v e re w eig h ted the d a ta to reflec t th e a g e d istrib u tio n fo r th e en tire c ou n try, as sh o w n late r in T a b le 2 . Jap a n is a h ig h ly h o m o g en e ou s c ou n try , a n d th is h o m o g e ne ity also ap p lie d to its e x p erie nc e du ring W o rld W a r II a nd m u ch su b seq u e nt h isto ry . T h e G re a te r T o k y o±Y o k o ha m a m e tro p o litan a re a a lon e c o n stitute s a p p ro x im a te ly a qu a rte r o f the to tal Ja p an e se p o pu lation (Jap a n S tatistica l A sso c iation , 1 99 7 ), an d o u r resu lts a re q u ite lik e ly a lso g en e ralisab le to m u c h o f u rb a n Jap a n, w h ich in 19 9 5 w as said to m ak e u p 7 8 % o f th e to ta l p op u latio n (U n ited N a tion s Sta tistica l Y ea rb o o k, 1 9 95 , T a b le 9 ). In ad d itio n , no n e of th e re la tio n s w e fo un d fo r o u r G erm an sa m p le differ ed sig nific a n tly b etw e en larg e c ities, sm a ll citie s, an d ru ra l are as, a n d it m a y b e th at th e sam e w o uld h o ld fo r Ja p an if su c h an a n aly sis c ou ld 8 b e c arried o u t.
Coding, Classification, and Analysis F o r b oth th e G erm an an d Ja pa n e se da ta, resp o n se s w ere first tra n slate d into E n g lish a nd the n co d ed , usin g c a te g orie s de riv e d fro m a pre lim ina ry re v ie w of a sam p le o f a nsw e rs in e a ch c o un try . C o din g w as g e n era lly straig h tfo rw ard , an d reliab ility c h ec ks fo r th e m ain e v en ts y ield ed ag re em en t o f m o re th an 90 % b etw ee n in d e pe n d en t co d ers. O ur m a jo r in d e p en d en t v a ria b le is a ge , a s w e a re e spe cia lly in tere sted in th e effe cts o f life ex p erie nc e s o ve r th e p ast h alf-c en tury . W e h a ve tran sfo rm e d ag e into 1 3 c ateg o ries, e a ch a fiv e-y e ar sp an ex c ep t at the be g inn in g (1 8 ±2 4 ) an d en d (80 & o ve r) o f th e ag e d istrib ution , an d w e u se th ese to p lot th e m e m o ries fo r ea c h p o pu la tio n , th u s a llo w ing g rap h ic a lly fo r no n -lin e arity . W e assu m e tha t 8
T h e e s tim a te d re s p o n s e ra te fo r t h e to t a l J a p a n e se s a m p le w a s 7 2 % . H o w e v e r, th e fu ll sa m p le fo r
th e J a p a n e s e p ro je c t in c lu d e d 5 0 9 re s p o n d e n t s w h o d id n o t a n sw e r o u r q u e s t io n s Ð th a t is , th e y s h o w u p s im p ly a s m is s in g d a ta o n o u r q u e st io n s a n d in m o s t c a se s in te rv ie w ers in d ic a t ed th a t t h e y a n s w e re d ``d o n ’ t k n o w ’ ’ . A s w e a ls o n o te d t h a t so m e i n t e rv i e w e r/P S U s h a d h ig h e r re s p o n se ra te s th a n o t h e rs , w e re p e a te d th e m a in re s u lts fo r th e % M e n tio n s c o lu m n i n T a b le 2 fo r o n ly th o se P S U s w ith re s p o n s e ra te s a b o v e 7 0 % . T h e n e w re s u l ts d iffe r b y le s s th a n 2 % fro m t h o s e in th e ta b le , w h i c h s tro n g ly in d ic a t es t h a t t h e n o n -re s p o n s e c a n b e t re a te d a s e s s e n ti a lly ra n d o m e rro r. It is a ls o lik e ly th a t t h e s m al le r n u m b e r o f J ap a n es e m e n ti o n s o f s e c o n d e v en ts th an t h e G e rm an s a m p le is d u e to th e s a m e re a s o n : m o re re lu c ta n ce o n th e p a rt o f b o th re s p o n d en ts a n d in te rv i ew e rs to t ry to o b ta i n a s e co n d e v en t. (S c h u m a n & S c o tt , 1 9 8 9 , re p o rt t h a t th ei r U S s a m p l es a ls o h a d a h ig h p ro p o rtio n o f re s p o n d e n t s (3 3 % ) g iv in g o n ly o n e e v en t.)
434
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virtu ally a ll o f the a ge e ffe cts re p orte d h e re a re d u e to c oh o rt e x p erie nc e , n ot to 9 th e ag e in g p ro ce ss a s su ch . In a d ditio n to ag e , w e h av e tak e n in to ac c ou n t po ssib le effe cts d u e to g en d er, e du c atio n , a n d, fo r G e rm a n y, u rb an ±rura l 10 lo c a tio n. T h e m ain oth er v ariab le s u se d a re b ase d on the co n te n t o f th e re p o rte d m e m o rie s a nd w ill b e d e ve lop e d as w e p ro ce e d.
RESULTS Collective Memories in West Germany in 1991 T h e ev en ts m e n tio n e d m os t o fte n b y G e rm a ns a re p re sen te d in T a ble 1 , w hic h in c lu d e s a ll ev e nts g iv e n by a t le ast 3 % o f th e sam p le a n d a lso in d ic a te s th e ap p ro xim a te d ate a t w h ic h ea ch ev e nt o cc u rre d . T h e p e rc e nta g es g iv ing ea c h ev e nt as 1 st m en tio n o r 2 n d m e n tio n a re sh o w n in th e tab le, w ith th e pe rce n ta g es ad d ing to 1 00 fo r e a ch c o lu m n . M o re im p o rta nt fo r m o st o f o u r an a lysis, th e pe rc en tag e o f th e to ta l N (7 2 8) th at g av e a n ev e n t (re ga rd le ss o f w h e th e r m e n tio n ed 1 st o r 2 n d) is p rov id ed in th e ne x t c o lum n. F o r ex a m p le, 50 .7 % o f th e G e rm an re sp o n de n ts g av e R e u nifica tio n as eith er th e ir 1 st o r 2 n d m en tion , w h ic h im p lie s th a t 4 9 .3 % o f th o se g iv in g a n y e v e n t d id n o t m e n tio n R e u n ifica tio n a t a ll. T w o c a te g o rie s d o m in at e th e G e rm a n re sp o n se s: W o rl d W a r II a n d R e u n ifica tio n , w ith th e fo rm e r m o re fre q u en t for first m e n tio n s an d th e la tte r m u c h m or e so for se co n d m e n tio n s an d a lso fo r % M e ntio ns o v era ll. A s m o st re sp o n de n ts g av e tw o d iffe ren t e ve n ts, the y w ere n o t forc ed to ch o o se be tw e e n W o rld W a r II an d R eu n ific ation . Y et o f th o se w h o ga v e tw o ev e n ts, o ne o f w h ich w a s e ith e r W o rld W a r II o r R eu n ific a tio n , on ly 15 % m en tio ne d bo th. T h e re st m e n tio ne d o ne o f th e o th er six e v en ts liste d in T a ble 1, or g a ve an in fre q u en t ev e nt co d e d a s ``O the r’ ’ (e .g . sev e n re sp on d en ts in th e to tal sa m ple m en tion e d as e sp ec ially im p o rtan t a so cc e r ch am p ion sh ip g a m e ). R ela tio n s to C o h o rt. W e e x am in ed th e a sso c ia tio n s of ea c h o f th e six ev e nts to c o ho rt (rep res en ted by a g e in 1 9 9 1), w ith e d uc a tio n , g e nd e r, a n d 9
T h e re i s a c c u m u la ti n g e v i d e n c e th a t, e x c e p t at e x tre m e o ld a g e , th e a g ei n g p ro c es s a m o n g a d u l ts
d o e s n o t p ro d u ce p a rt ic u l a r e ffe c ts s u c h a s a n in c re a si n g ly c o n s e rv a tiv e o u t lo o k . (S e e D a v i s, 1 9 9 2 ; D an ig e lis & C u tle r, 1 9 9 1 ; K ro sn ic k & A l w in , 1 9 8 9 ; T y l er & S ch u lle r, 1 9 9 1 .) 10
A g e w a s a l re ad y p re c o d e d in to c a te g o rie s in th e G e rm a n d a ta w e re c e iv e d , a n d w e th en m a tc h e d
th o s e c a te g o rie s in d i v i d i n g th e J a p a n e s e d a ta i n t o a g e g ro u p s . T h e re su lt in g a g e c a te g o rie s a re q u i te c lo s e to th o s e u s e d b y S c h u m a n a n d S c o tt (1 9 8 9 ). F o r t h o s e w h o p re fe r c o h o rt b i rth d at e s, t h e X -a x is la b e l s in o u r fig u r es w o u ld re ad : b o rn b e fo re 1 9 1 2 , 1 9 1 2 ±1 9 1 6 , 1 9 1 7 ±2 1 , 1 9 2 2 ±2 6 , 1 9 2 7 ±3 1 , 1 9 3 2 ± 3 6 , 1 9 3 7 ±4 1 , 1 9 4 2 ±4 6 , 1 9 4 7 ±5 1 , 1 9 5 2 ±5 6 , 1 9 5 7 ±6 1 , 1 9 6 2 ±6 6 , 1 9 6 7 ±7 3 . N o te th at t h e J ap a n es e sa m p le is o ld e r o n a v e ra g e th a n th e G e rm a n s am p le , p rim a ril y b e c a u s e o f th e o v e rsa m p lin g n o te d e arl ie r, b u t t h i s is c o n tro lle d w h e n w e m a k e d e t ai le d c o m p a ris o n s (e .g . b e tw e e n F ig s . 1 a n d 2 ). F o r b o th th e G erm a n an d Ja p a n e s e d a t a, th e o ld e s t a g e g ro u p (8 0 y e a rs o f ag e a n d o v e r) s h o u ld b e re g a rd e d w ith s p e c ia l c a u tio n , a s it c o v er s a w id e ra n g e o f y e a rs a n d is m o re lik e ly th an y o u n g e r a g e c at e g o rie s to in c lu d e so m e p e o p l e w i th s e ri o u s p h y s ic a l o r m e n t al d e fic i ts .
435
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES TABLE 1 Most Frequently Mentioned Events and Changes: German Sample % 1 st M e n ti o n
% 2 n d M e n t io n
% M e n t io n s
R e u n ifi c a tio n (1 9 9 0 )
2 6 .6
2 4 .0
5 0 .7
W o rld W a r II (1 9 3 9 ±4 5 )
3 2 .1
5 .6
3 7 .8
D iv is io n o f G e rm an (1 9 4 5 )
8 .4
5 .9
1 4 .3
G u l f W a r (1 9 9 0 ±9 1 )
3 .3
7 .1
1 0 .4
E c o n o m ic M i ra cl e b e g u n (1 9 4 8 )
2 .5
4 .5
7 .0
E n d o f C o ld W a r (1 9 8 9 )
3 .3
3 .2
6 .5
F o u n d in g o f F R G (1 9 4 9 )
3 .6
2 .3
5 .9
E u ro p e a n C o m m u n ity (1 9 6 7 )
2 .5
1 .5
4 .0
O th e r
1 7 .7
1 9 .8
N o 2 n d M e n ti o n
Ð N
1
1
2 6 .0
1 00
1 00
(7 2 8 )
(7 2 8 )
E a c h ro w re p re s e n t s a d i c h o to m y o f th o s e m en ti o n in g th e e v e n t a t a ll d iv id e d b y t h e to ta l n u m b e r
o f re sp o n d en ts (7 2 8 ) m en ti o n in g a t l e as t o n e e v e n t .
u rb a n ±ru ra l lo ca tio n c o ntro lle d , u sin g lo gistic re gre ssio n w ith a n d w ith o ut a q ua d ratic te rm fo r a g e, an d a lso m u ltip le c lassifica tio n a n aly sis (A n d rew s, M org a n , S o nq u ist, & K lem , 1 9 73 )Ð the form er m ore a pp ro p ria te g iv e n th e d ic h oto m ise d e ve n ts, th e latter co n v en ien t fo r stu d yin g n o n-lin ea rity in d e ta il. T h e tw o typ e s o f a n aly sis y ie ld e ssen tially th e sa m e re su lts, a nd ne ith e r ed u c atio n n o r ge n de r n or u rb an ±ru ra l lo c ation is g en e rally re la te d to m e n tio nin g 11 a p articu la r e ve n t. A s th e asso c iation o f a g e to m e n tio n in g an ev e nt is in n o ca se c h an g e d im p o rta n tly b y c on tro lling fo r e d uc a tio n a n d g e nd e r in eithe r th e G erm an o r Ja pa n e se d a ta (n o r by u rb an ±ru ral lo ca tio n in th e G erm an d a ta ), w e w ill p re sen t th e a g e rela tio n s g ra ph ic ally in th e sim p le fo rm of the pe rce n tag e g iv ing a pa rtic u lar ev e nt fo r ea ch o f ou r 1 3 a g e c ate go rie s. F ig u re 1 re p orts th e c ro ss-ta b ula tio n o f % M e n tio ns o f W o rld W a r II an d R eu n ific ation b y ag e . A s e x pe c ted , the y sh o w v e ry c le a r rev e rse a ssoc iatio ns. O ld e r p eo p le ten d to c h o ose W o rld W a r II: u sin g the m id -p oin t (ag e 77 ) o f th e p ea k a ge ra ng e fo r the W o rld W ar II cu rv e, the se resp o n d en ts w e re 2 5 y e ars o ld 11
E d u c a tio n i s re la te d p o s it iv e ly (P < .0 5 ) to m e n tio n i n g th e tw o m o re i n t er n a ti o n al e v e n ts , E n d o f
th e C o ld W ar a n d C re a tio n o f th e E u ro p e a n C o m m u n it y , b u t n o t to t h e o th e r e v e n t s. T h is i s q u i te d i ffe re n t fr o m w h a t a re m o re c le a rly s em a n ti c m e m o rie s (k n o w le d g e a b o u t th e w o rld ), w h e re e d u c a tio n i s a m a j o r c o rre la te in v i rtu a lly al l c a s e s (J e n n i n g s , 1 9 9 6 ; S c h u m a n , B e ll i, & B is c h o p i n g , 1 9 9 7 ). G e n d e r is re la te d to t h e m e n t io n o f o n ly o n e e v e n t : m e n a re si g n ifi c a n tly m o r e li k e l y to m e n t io n th e fo u n d in g o f t h e F e d er al R e p u b l ic o f G er m a n y (F R G ). U r b a n ±ru ra l lo ca t io n is s ig n i fic a n tly re la te d to m e n tio n s o f W o r ld W a r II (ru ra l g iv e s lig h tly m o re m e n t io n s ) a n d D iv i s io n o f G e rm an y ( u rb a n g iv e s li g h tl y m o re ).
436
FIG. 1.
W o rl d W a r II , R e u n ifi c at io n , a n d t h e E u ro p e a n C o m m u n it y fo r G er m a n s.
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
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w he n G e rm an y be g an th e w ar b y in v ad in g P o lan d an d w ere e n te rin g th eir thirtie s w h en th e w ar e nd e d . Y o un g e r p e o ple , e spe c ially 1 8 to 2 4 y e ar o ld s, ten d to m en tio n R eu n ific a tio n, w h ic h h ad o cc u rred o ffic ia lly in 19 9 0 , th e y e ar b e fore the su rv ey , a n d h ad b e en fo resh a d o w e d a t th e en d o f 1 9 89 b y th e o p e nin g o f th e B erlin W a ll. If w e trea t th e pe ak fo r th e o lde r co h o rt a s re lia b ly e sta b lish e d, d esp ite th e sm a ll nu m be r of c ase s (3 7 ), this ex ten d s th e c ritica l ag e p e rio d b ey o nd th e m id-tw en ties, an d o f co u rse th e p e ak fo r th e yo u n ge r c oh o rt m a y b e less th a n the 1 8 to 2 4 ra n ge th a t d efine s th a t e nd of o u r sa m p le ’ s ag e ra n ge . (T h e third e v en t in F ig. 1 , E u ro p e, is d iscu sse d la te r.) O f th e re m a inin g e v en ts in T ab le 1, bo th o f the tw o m o st rec en t e v en tsÐ G u lf W a r a n d E n d o f th e C old W a rÐ sh o w sig n ifica n t re lation s in the sam e d irec tio n as R eu n ific a tio n, w ith d isp ro p o rtio n ate m en tio n s b y y o un g e r G e rm a ns. T w o ev e n ts fro m th e ea rly p o st-w a r y ea rs, th e ``E c on o m ic M ira cle’ ’ (w h ich is o fte n d ated fro m th e 19 4 8 cu rre nc y refo rm b u t w h ich e x te n d ed fo r a d e ca d e o r m ore ) an d the fou n d in g o f th e F e de ra l R e pu b lic o f G e rm a ny (in 1 9 49 ), bo th sh o w no n sign ific a nt tren d s to b e m en tion e d m o re o fte n by o ld e r G erm an s. T h e la st e v en t liste d in T a b le 1 rev e als a cu rviline a r re la tion to a g e, as sh o w n in F ig. 1: th e E u rop e a n C om m u n ity , w h ich w as initia te d in 1 9 57 as th e E E C an d the n d e v elo pe d m o re fu lly in a p olitic a l d ire ctio n in 1 9 6 7. T h e E C is m en tio ne d d isp ro po rtion a te ly b y G e rm a n s of a rou n d 4 0 y e ars o f a ge in 19 9 1 Ð c o h orts tha t w ere in th eir la te te en s in the m id -six tie s (P < .0 6 fo r th e a dd e d q u ad ra tic term in a lo g istic reg ress io n w ith e d uc a tio n , se x , a n d urb a n±ru ral lo ca tio n c o ntro lle d ). H ere it w o uld b e h elp ful if w e h a d a co n ten t a na ly sis o ve r tim e o f m a ss m e dia an d p erh ap s sc ho o l te ac h in g to d e te rm in e th e d a te of m a x im u m p u blic a tte n tio n o n th is e v en t. O ne o the r e v en t in T ab le 1, D ivisio n o f G erm an y , fa ils to sho w m u ch sig n o f a relatio n to c o ho rt, w h ich se e m s o d d a s the d ivisio n oc c ur re d a t th e en d o f W o rld W ar II a n d the refo re sho u ld ha v e ha d its m ajo r im p ac t o n th e o ld e r co h o rts. H o w ev e r, D iv isio n is th e co m ple m e n t of R e u n ifica tio n a n d the refo re m a y w e ll h av e b e en b ro ug h t to m in d for yo u n ge r p e o ple b y the sa lie n ce o f R eu n ific ation . W e d ivid ed th e sa m p le into tw o p arts: th e Y o u n g (a ge s 1 8 to 5 4 ) an d the O ld (a g es 5 5 an d u p ), w ith the d istin ctio n th e a p pro x im ate p o in t in F ig . 1 at w h ic h th e tw o line s c ro ss. W e the n fou n d th a t 5 1 % of th ose in th e Y ou n g ca teg o ry w h o c h ose D iv isio n a lso g av e R e un ific atio n a s a no th er resp o n se, w he rea s on ly 2 6 % o f th ose in th e O ld ca teg o ry w ho ch o se D ivisio n g av e R eu n ific ation as w e ll (P < .0 2 fo r the differe nc e , F ish e r’ s E x a ct T e st). T h us, m e n tio n o f D iv isio n o f G erm a ny is tied m o re c lo se ly to th e sa lie n ce o f R eu n ific ation fo r y o u n ge r G erm an s tha n for o lde r G e rm an s. M u c h m o re dra m atic th an th e official R e u nific a tio n o f G erm an y w as th e fall o f th e B erlin W all a little m o re th an a y e ar p rio r to o u r su rv ey . W e c o de d sep a rate ly a n y m e n tio n o f th e W all, re g ard less of w h e the r it o cc u rre d as p art o f an o the r c o da b le an sw e r o r n o t. W e the n d istin g uish e d b etw ee n th o se w ho sp ok e o nly o f th e c rea tio n of th e W a ll (n = 5 0) a n d th ose w h o sp o k e o n ly o f its
438
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de stru ctio n (n = 5 0 ), o m ittin g 1 7 ca se s w h ere b oth w ere m en tion e d o r th e re fe ren c e w a s am big u o us. F or the 1 0 0 re sp on d en ts w h ere th e re fe ren c e w a s cle ar, th e rela tio n to a g e is h igh ly sig n ific a nt ( t = ± .2 5, P < .0 1 ), a nd d e spite th e sm a ll n u m b er o f ca se s a d istinc t pa tte rn is ev id e nt. O f th o se w h o w ere 4 0 ±4 9 in 19 9 1 (w h ic h m e a ns a g es 10 to 1 9 w he n the W a ll w a s e rec ted in 1 96 1 ), 8 9 % m e n tio n the b u ild in g o f the W all a nd o nly 1 1 % m e n tio n its fall. O f th o se ag e d 18 ±2 9 in 19 9 1 a nd th u s just a y e ar y o u ng e r w h en th e W a ll c a m e d o w n at the e n d of 1 98 9 , 7 3 % m e n tio n its d estru c tio n a n d o n ly 27 % its c rea tio n . R esp o n de n ts ov e r a g e 5 0 a re n o t d istin c tiv e in th eir m e n tio n of e ith er cre a tio n (5 6 % ) o r de stru ctio n (44 % ) o f the W a ll. T h ese re su lts p ro v ide furth er e vid e nc e o f th e spe c ific ity o f th e ag e a t w h ic h a v ery dra m a tic e v en t h a s its m ax im u m im p ac t o n m e m o ry . T he ea rly p ea k for a ge s 10 to 1 9 fo r the b uildin g of the W a ll fits a sug g es tio n b y S ch u m a n a n d S co tt (19 8 9 , p p .3 6 6±3 6 7 ) reg a rdin g m em orie s o f Joh n K e nn e dy ’ s a ssassin a tio n an d de ta ile d e v id e nc e in S c hu m an a nd C o rn in g (1 9 9 7) th at visu ally d ram atic ev e n ts a re lik ely to im prin t a y o un g er a ge gro u p th a n w ill e q ua lly im p o rta n t bu t m o re a b stra ct e ve n ts. P e rson a l C o n n ec tio n s. T w o -th ird s (6 8% ) o f th o se 5 5 ye a rs o f ag e an d ov e r ga v e a c le a rly p e rso n al re as on w h e n e x pla in in g th e ir c h oic e o f W o rld W a r II, e.g . ``I lo st m y le ft a rm the re’ ’ ’ ``I a lw ay s fe are d a ir-ra id w arn in g s’ ’ ; ``I lo st m y bro th er in the w a r’ ’ . A m o ng th o se un d e r ag e 55 , the p erc e n ta g e g ivin g a p e rs o n a l re a s o n f o r h a v i n g m e n t io n e d W o rl d W a r II ( e .g . ` `L o s t m y gra n d fa the r’ ’ ) is m u c h lo w er , alth ou g h still n o t trivia l in pro p or tio n (2 4 % ). H o w e ve r, th e p rop o rtio n o f pe rso n al re fe ren c es (e.g . ``V isits o f relativ es are po ssib le a g ain ’ ’ ) w h en e x pla in in g th e im p ortan c e o f R eu n ific atio n is m u c h sm a lle rÐ ju st 4% Ð w h ic h sug g e sts th a t pe rson a l co n ten t m a y b e le ss esse n tia l fo r m ak in g a n e v en t m e m o ra ble if it is q uite re ce n t. T h e re w er e n o p e rso na l co n ne c tio n s at all for m e n tio n s o f th e G u lf W a r, a lth o u gh so m e resp o n de n ts d id ex p ress an x ieties a b o ut it d ev e lop ing in to a la rg er c on flict. M e m o ries of re ce n t dra m a tic p u b lic ev e n ts ca n d raw o n c u rre n t o r rec en t m ed ia a c co u n ts. E arly ev e nts a re m or e lik e ly to de p en d o n p erso n al e xp e rie n ce s tha t h av e sta y ed a liv e fo r a n in d iv id u al an d th u s rec u r as m em o rie s w ith little o r n o e xte rn a l stim ula tio n . G e rm a n G u ilt. A c co rd in g to B uru m a (19 9 4 ), m a n y G e rm a n s fe el a g rea t de a l of gu ilt ov e r th e N a zi e ra g en e rally an d o v er th e a nn ih ila tio n o f the Je w s in pa rtic u lar. H o w e ve r, w o rd s c le arly c on n o tin g g uilt o ve r th e N a zi p erio d w e re seld o m a p pa re nt in the se re sp o n ses . S o m e re sp on d en ts d id re fe r to H itle r a s cra z y o r w ere o th erw ise c on d e m n a to ry o f th at tim e (5 % o f th e sa m p le , a n d sho w in g n o rela tio n to a g e), b ut as th is d id n o t in v o lv e pe rso na l sta te m e n ts o f re sp o n sib ility, it c ou ld b e se e n m o re as a w a y o f d ista nc ing o ne se lf fro m th e N a z i era th a n as a sig n o f pe rso na l g uilt. M o re o v er, a s K oo n z (19 9 4 , p .2 6 1 ) em p ha sises , ``G er m a ns g en e rally h ad n ot suffe red un d e r N a zi ru le u ntil th e tid es
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
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o f w ar tu rn e d’ ’ , so th ose w h o liv ed th ro u gh th a t pe riod as a du lts h ad little p erso n al re aso n to b e critic a l, w ha tev e r th e ir p o st-w a r lea de rs m a y h av e told the m a b o ut N az i crim e s. O nly 7 o f the 7 28 G e rm a n re sp on d e n ts m e n tio n e d Je w s at a ny p o in t in th eir an sw e rs, u sua lly b y refe rrin g to th e ir a nn ih ila tio n (``J ud e nv e rnic h tu n g ’ ’ ) d urin g the N az i e ra. A g ain st th e p o ssib ility th a t o u r q ue stio n s m a y h a v e so m e h o w fa ile d to ta p the im p o rta n c e o f this p a rtic u la r m e m o ry , w e n o te th at 1 7 resp o n de n ts m e n tio n ed th e first la nd in g o n th e m o on a s im p o rta n tÐ n o t a re ce nt e v en t, n o r 12 o ne c lo se r in pe rso n al term s th an th e d estru ctio n o f th e Jew s. If w e div id e th e sm all n u m b e r w ho d o m e n tio n th e killin g o f Je w s by o u r Y ou n g (1 8±5 4 ) an d O ld (55 a n d u p ) c ateg o ries, a ll se ve n o f th e resp o n de n ts co m e fro m th e Y o u n g a g e g ro up (P = .0 5 by F ish er’ s E x ac t T est). G e rm a n s u nd e r 5 5 a t the tim e o f o u r su rve y w e re less th a n 1 0 y e ars old in 1 9 45 an d in m o st c a ses n ot ev e n b orn at th a t po in t. T h is fits o th e r a cc o u nts th a t ind ica te tha t stro n g reg ret a m o n g G erm a n s te n d s, w h e n it oc c urs, to ch a ra cterise th o se to o y ou n g to h a ve ha d a n y d ire c t in v o lv e m en t in th e N a z i p erio d, m u ch m o re tha n tho se w h o a ctu ally liv e d th ro u g h the p e rio d th em se lv e s a nd o f c ou rse in so m e ca se s m a y h a v e p a rtic ip a te d to o n e d e gre e o r a no th er in it (B ro w n in g , 1 9 9 2). O ld e r ad u lts w e re m uc h m o re lik ely to d w ell in the ir m e m o ries o n th e ir o w n su ffe rin g u n de r bo m b in g , sh o rta ge s o f fo o d , a nd e ne m y o cc u p atio n, ra th er tha n o n the suffe rin g o f oth e rs, e sp ec ially o the rs w h o se fate m igh t a d d th e p ain o f 13 g uilt to th a t o f d efe at. T h u s, w ith reg a rd to W orld W ar II, ou r q u estio ns ap p ea re d to stim u late m e m o ries o f a u to b iog ra p hic al ex p er ie n ce , w he re as m u c h o f th e p o st-w a r em p ha sis on N az i crim e s ha s in v o lv e d a k ind of lea rn ing tha t c rea te s se m a n tic m e m o ries. A c on c e rn w ith N a z i crim e s b ec a m e a m a tte r o f p u blic d isc ussio n o nly in the 1 96 0 s, first a t a m o re in te lle c tu a l le ve l, inc lud in g d e ba tes a m o n g h isto ria n s a bo u t the n a tu re a n d un iqu e n ess o f th e ``F in a l S o lu tio n ’ ’ (M iller, 1 99 0 ). S till la te r th e re w as w ide r po p u lar in v o lve m e n t, in p art b e ca u se o f th e m a d e-fo r-te lev ision se ries ca lle d H o loc a u st, w h ich a llo w e d e asy id e n tifica tio n w ith sto ck figu re s fro m th e p a st. A c co rd in g to B uru m a (1 9 9 4, p .8 8 ), w h e n it w a s sh ow n in 1 9 79 the se rie s w a s se en b y h a lf the a du lt p o p ula tio n o f W e st G erm an y . H e q u o te s a n a rtic le b y H e inz H o eh n e in D e r S p ie g el: A n A m e ric an tele v isi on s er ie s , m a d e in a triv ia l st yle, p ro du c e d m o r e f or co m m e r cia l th a n fo r m o ra l r ea s on s, m o re fo r e nter ta inm en t th an f o r e nlig h te n m en t, 12
H ei n ri c h (1 9 9 6 ) u s e d th e s a m e S ch u m an a n d S c o tt (1 9 8 9 ) o p e n -e n d e d e v e n t q u e st io n in a s e lf-
a d m i n i st e re d su rv e y in 1 9 9 5 a n d re p o rt s th a t 1 0 % o f W e s t G e rm a n s m e n t io n e d Je w s . T h is m a y b e p a rt ly b e c a u s e h i s tra n s l at io n o f th e fo ll o w -u p ``w h y ’ ’ q u e s ti o n w a s s o m e w h a t b et te r, b u t ev e n m o re li k e ly b e c a u s e h is o p e n q u e s tio n w a s p re c e d e d b y a c lo se d q u es t io n co n ce rn in g re sp o n s ib il ity fo r d e a l in g w it h th e a n n ih il at io n o f J e w s . M o re o v e r, e v en if t h e tr u e fig u re i s s o m e w h e re b e t w ee n 1 % a n d 1 0 % , it w o u ld st ill b e q u i te sm a l l. 13
T h e re is n o s ig n o f a re la ti o n b e tw e e n m e n tio n s o f J ew s a n d e it h e r e d u c a tio n o r s e x .
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a c c om plis h e d w h at h u nd re d s of b oo k s, p la y s, film s , an d telev isi on p ro g ra m s , th ou sa n d s o f d o c u m e n ts, an d all th e c o n c e n tratio n ca m p tria ls h av e fa ile d to d o in th e m o r e th a n th re e d e c a de s s in c e the e nd of th e w a r : to in f or m G e r m a ns ab o u t c r im e s a g ain st Je w s c o m m itte d in th eir n a m e , so th a t m illio n s w er e em o tio n ally to uc h ed an d m o v ed .
Y e t w ith o u t q u estio nin g th e im m e d ia te e m o tio n a l p o w e r o f su ch a film , it is do u b tfu l th at a vic ario us ex p e rie n ce o f th is k ind ca n h av e a d e ep an d la stin g im pa c t o n m em ory fo r a la rge r p ub lic . It is p ossib le fo r in d ivid u als in all co u ntrie s to e m e rg e fro m a d a rk e n ed th e a tre w ith te a rs in th eir e y es, y e t w ith in a fe w h o urs o r da y s to h av e la rg ely fo rg o tte n th e e x pe rie n c e in a w ay th at w ou ld no t ha v e h ap p en e d if th e ir tea rs h a d flow e d o u t o f d irec t in vo lv em e nt in a rea llife ev e nt. U n lik e W orld W a r II, re ce n t ev e n ts suc h a s R eu n ific atio n an d th e G u lf W a r do se e m to h av e b ee n m e n tio n ed fre qu e ntly o n th e b asis o f se m a ntic m e m o ries, as in d ica te d b y th e fin d ing th at th e y seld o m p ro d u c ed e xp la n atio n s th at in v o lv e d pe rso n al ex p er ie n ce . T h is lea d s ag a in to th e h y p o th e sis th at m en tio n o f re ce n t pu b lic e v en ts (as w ell as m e m o ries o f e arly e ve n ts by c u rren t co h o rts) are usu a lly le ss d ep e nd e n t on e p iso dic m e m o ry . O f co u rse , w he re rec en t e v en ts d o in v o lv e im po rta nt p erso n al ex p e rie nc e , this sh ou ld serv e to su sta in th e m e m o ry of th e e v en t in fu tu re y e ars.
Collective Memories in Yokohama, Japan, in 1991 E v e n ts th a t w e re m e n tio n ed b y m o re tha n 3 % of Y o k o h am a re sp on de n ts are pre se nte d in T ab le 2 . W orld W a r II w a s b y fa r the m ost freq u en t, g iv en b y 14 w e ll o v er h alf th e Y o k o ha m a resp o n de n ts, alth ou g h c e rta in ly n o t a ll. The G u lf W ar , w h ich h ad o cc u rred ju st a few m o n th s b efo re th e su rve y be g an , w a s a d ista n t sec o nd fo r th e Ja p an e se . T hird w ere re fere n ce s to th e Im p e ria l S y ste m . G e rm a n R e u n ific ation , w h ic h in clu de d m en tio ns of th e fa ll o f th e 14
J ap a n e s e re s p o n d en ts m e n t io n i n g w h a t A m e ric an s a n d E u ro p e a n s c a ll W o r ld W a r II s o m e tim e s
re fe rre d to it a s th e ``G re at e r E a st A s ia n W a r’ ’ o r th e ` `P a c ific W a r’ ’ . B u ru m a (1 9 4 4 , p .4 7 ) s ta te s th at th e ``G re a te r E as t A s ia n W a r’ ’ is a s s o c i at e d w i th th e i d e a t h a t p rio r to 1 9 4 1 ``J a p a n w a s fig h tin g a w ar to li b e ra te A si a fro m B o l sh e v i s m a n d w h it e c o lo n i a lism ’ ’ , a n d h e im p lie s th at p e o p le w h o e m p lo y t h e te rm s till h o ld t o t h i s b el ie f. H e a ls o c la i m s th a t ``. . . o n l y J a p a n e s e o f a li b e ra l d is p o s it io n c al l W o r ld W a r II th e P a c if ic W a r’ ’ . O f th e 5 2 9 re s p o n s es c o d e d a s m e n tio n in g W o rld W ar II, 5 8 re fe rre d to it as t h e ``G re a te r E a s t A si a n W a r’ ’ , a n d th e se p e o p le w e re l a rg e ly (a n d si g n ifi c a n tly ) th e o l d e s t i n o u r s a m p le Ð al l b u t th re e w e re b o rn b e fo re 1 9 4 1 . H o w e v e r, i t is n o t c le a r th a t th is u s a g e h a s a c o n t in u i n g p o l itic a l s ig n ific a n ce , fo r t h e c o n te n t o f th e ir re sp o n s e s is m o st ly a b o u t s u ffe ri n g d u ri n g W o rld W ar II, j u s t as a re th e re s p o n s e s th a t u s e th e te rm W o rld W a r II. N o t a s in g le o n e c o n t a in e d p o li tic a l co n te n t o f th e ty p e su g g e s te d b y B u ru m a o r re fe rre d to p re -1 9 4 1 co n flic t s. R e fe re n c e s to th e ``P a c ifi c W a r’ ’ a re n o t d is tin c tiv e i n a g e a t a ll , n o r d o e s t h e ir u sa g e i n c lu d e o b v io u s p o li tic a l v ie w s o f a n y k in d . T h u s w e h a v e n o e v i d e n c e fo r th e p o litic a l c o n n o ta ti o n s o f t h e te rm s e m p l o y e d to re fe r to th e w a r, a lt h o u g h w e a re li m ite d in th e d eg re e t o w h ic h w e a re a b l e to e x p l o re th is is s u e w it h o u r d a ta .
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
441
B erlin W a ll in 1 9 89 , ca m e ne x t, fo llo w e d b y th e 1 9 7 3 A ra b b o yc o tt of oil (kn o w n in Ja p an as ``th e O il S h o c k’ ’ ), an d fin a lly a ca te g o ry im p o ssible to 15 d a t e w i th a n y p r e c is io n , E n v i ro n m e n ta l is su e s. W h en the Y oko ham a p erc en ta ge s a re a d ju ste d to re fle c t th e co u ntry -w id e a ge d istrib u tio n (th e la st co lu m n in T a ble 2 ), th e pe rc en tag e m en tio n in g W o rld W a r II g oe s d o w n b y ab o u t 1 0 % a n d a ll o the r resp o n ses g o up b y 1 % to 3 % , w h ich d ec re ase s th e g ap be tw e e n th e m o st re m e m be red ev e nt a nd all o th ers, b u t d oe s no t ch an g e b asic co n clu sio n s. T h e p rop o rtio ns o f first v e rsus sec o n d m e n tio ns for m o st e ve n ts are n o t ve ry d iffe re n t, e x ce p t tha t w h e n W o rld W ar II is m e n tio n ed it is a lm o st a lw a ys g iv e n first, te stify in g fu rth er to its im p o rta n ce in th e m ind s o f th o se w ho g ive it a t a ll. In th e U n ited S ta te s, a la rg e r p ro p o rtio n o f W o rld W ar II re sp on se s, a q u arter, w ere g iv en a s se c on d m e ntion s (S ch u m a n & S c o tt, 19 8 9 ). E v en afte r ad ju stin g
TABLE 2 Most Frequently Mentioned Events and Changes: Japanese Sample % 1 s t M e n t io n W o rld W a r II (1 9 4 1 ±4 5 )
% 2 n d M en ti o n
% M en ti o n s
1
W e ig h t e d
6 0 .3
2 .5
6 2 .8 %
5 3 .1 %
G u l f W a r (1 9 9 0 ±9 1 )
8 .1
5 .4
1 3 .5 %
1 6 .4 %
E m p e ro r (1 9 8 9 )
5 .0
3 .9
8 .9 %
1 0 .2 %
G e rm an U n i ty (1 9 9 0 )
4 .7
3 .1
7 .8 %
1 0 .2 %
O il S h o c k (1 9 7 3 )
2 .4
1 .5
3 .9 %
5 .1 %
E n v i ro n m e n ta l
1 .5
1 .9
3 .4 %
4 .5 %
O th e r
1 8 .0
2 7 .0
N o 2 n d M e n ti o n
Ð
5 4 .7
N 1
10 0
10 0
(8 4 3 )
(8 4 3 )
2
E a c h ro w re p re s e n t s a d i c h o to m y o f th o s e m en ti o n in g th e e v e n t a t a ll d iv id e d b y t h e to ta l n u m b e r
o f re sp o n d en ts (8 4 3 ) m en ti o n in g a t l e as t o n e e v e n t . 2
P e rc e n t ag e s o f % M en ti o n in g a n e v e n t re w e ig h te d to re fl ec t th e a g e d is tr ib u tio n in th e J ap a n es e
p o p u l at io n b a se d o n th e 1 9 9 0 c en s u s . S o u rc e : N ip p o n : A c h a r te d s u r ve y o f J a p a n , 1 9 9 4 , p u b l is h e d b y K o k u se i -sh a , T o k y o , 1 9 9 5 . T h e o ri g in a l a g e d at a co m e fro m th e B u re a u o f S t a tisti c s , M a n a g em e n t a n d C o o rd in a tio n A g en c y .
15
T h e n e x t th re e ev e n ts in o rd e r w o u l d b e E c o n o m ic P r o s p erit y , m e n t io n e d b y 2 .9 % , E n d o f th e
C o ld W a r (2 .6 % ), a n d th e S a l es T ax o f 1 9 8 9 (2 .5 % ). J a p an e s e in 1 9 9 1 m i g h t w e ll h a v e b e e n a s im p re ss e d w it h J a p a n ’ s p o s t- w a r e c o n o m ic p ro s p e rity a s w e re t h e G erm a n s w it h th e ir o w n , b u t th e J a p a n es e p ro p o rtio n i s si g n ifi c an tl y s m a ll e r (P < .0 1 ) a n d t h e re a l so s e e m s to b e le s s o f a s in g l e te rm li k e `` ec o n o m ic m i ra c le ’ ’ i n J ap a n to ch a ra c te ris e i ts re m a rk ab le ec o n o m ic d e v el o p m e n t. O n th e o t h e r h a n d , th e J ap a n es e e m p h a s is o n t h e 1 9 7 3 o il cri s is is n o t m a tc h e d i n th e G e rm a n s a m p le , w h e re o n ly 2 o u t o f t h e 7 2 8 re s p o n d e n t s m e n t io n e d t h a t e v e n t , e v e n th o u g h G erm a n s w e re a ls o g re a tly a ffe c te d b y t h e 1 9 7 3 A ra b b o y c o tt .
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SCHUMAN, AKIYAMA, KNAUPER
th e Y o ko h a m a p erc en tag e s to fit the c o un try -w id e ag e d istrib u tio n , th e 5 3% w h o m e n tio n W o rld W ar II is c on side rab ly h ig h e r th a n th e eq u iv ale nt p erc e nta ge in th e U n ite d S tate s in 1 9 8 5, w h ich w a s 2 9 % . Im p orta nt as the w a r w a s to A m er ic an s, c iv ilia ns w ere n ev er bo m be d , th e c o u ntry o cc u pie d, o r th e p o lity 16 tra nsf orm ed a fte r th e w a r. T h e a sso cia tio n s of a ge w ith m e ntion s o f W o rld W a r II, th e G u lf W a r, a n d th e 17 O il C risis a re sh o w n in F ig. 2 . T h e rela tio n o f W o rld W a r II m e n tio n s to a g e is pa rtic u larly strik in g : ap p ro x im ate ly 9 0 % of th o se in th eir 7 0 s m e n tio n th e w a r eithe r 1 st o r 2 nd in im p o rta nc e , w ith th e p e rc e n ta g e d e clin in g to less th a n 3 0 % am o ng th os e u n d er 4 0 y ea rs o f a ge . T h e re su lts in d ic a te th e c o n tin uin g sa lie nc e of W orld W ar II in th e c o lle ctive m e m orie s o f o ld e r Jap an e se , w h ile th e sh a rp d ec lin e in m e n tio n s o nc e p ast th e W o rld W a r II c o h o rts in d ic a te s th e dim in ish m e n t o f su ch co llec tiv e m em o rie s as n ew c o h orts re p la c e the rem na n ts of th e W orld W ar II g en e ration . T h e o the r tw o e ve n ts sh o w n in F ig . 2 also re v e al cle ar an d re a d ily in terp rete d ag e re la tio n s. T h e G u lf W a r, h a v ing ju st e nd e d , is giv en prim a rily by th e 18 yo u n g er p eo p le in th e sam p le , an d ra re ly by th o se o ve r 5 0 . Ind e e d, it is re p o rte d a lm o st a s fre q u en tly by th o se u n d er 45 (b orn after 1 9 45 ) a s is W o rld W a r II. It sh o uld b e em p h asised th a t th e ag e re la tio n s fo r the tw o w ars w e re ne ith e r c re a te d n or c o nstra ine d b y th e o rig in a l q ue stio n w o rdin g . T h e q u e stio n ne v er re fers to ``m e m o rie s’ ’ , bu t sim p ly to m e ntion in g im p ortan t e v en ts o r ch a ng e s, an d th us W o rld W a r II w a s c om p letely w ithin th e sco p e o f the q u e stio n re g a rdle ss o f a re sp on d en t’ s a g eÐ a s a va ila b le in p rin cip le to th o se a ge d 1 8 a s to th o se ag e d 80 . Y e t d esp ite th e o v e rw h e lm ing sig nifica n ce o f W o rld W ar II to Jap a n ’ s su b se qu e nt h isto ry , few e r th a n h a lf o f Ja p an e se u n d er 4 0 y e ars o f ag e m e n tio n it as a n e sp ec ia lly im po rta nt ev e n t. T h e th ird ev en t sh o w n in F ig . 2 is th e o nly o n e fro m T a b le 2 tha t is ne ith e r ea rly n o r rec e nt in tim e : th e 19 7 3 ``O il S h oc k ’ ’ . It rev e als a lm o st pre cise ly th e ag e relatio n w e w o u ld e x p ec t, b ase d o n th e assu m p tio n th a t an e ve n t ha s its la rge st im p a ct o n tho se w h o ex p er ie n ce it du ring th eir y o u th . T h e ``O il S h o ck ’ ’ is m en tion e d prim a rily b y th o se a ro un d 4 2 y e ars o f ag e , w h ic h im p lie s ag e 2 4 a t
16
S c o tt a n d Z a c (1 9 9 3 ) re p o rt th at 4 5 % o f B rit o n s m e n ti o n e d W o rld W a r II, a lt h o u g h th at s a m p le
a ls o h a s li m ita t io n s th a t m a k e g en e ra li sa tio n to t h e e n tire p o p u la ti o n a li ttle u n c e rta in . B rita i n w a s h e a v ily b o m b e d , b u t n o t to th e s a m e ex te n t as Ja p a n , a n d it f ac e d th e th re a t o f i n v a s io n b u t n o t th e a ct u a l ity , h en c e t h e B ri tish fig u re fa ll in g b et w e en th e J a p an e s e a n d A m e ric a n v a lu e s s e e m s p la u s ib le . H o w e v e r, al l o f t h e s e fig u re s n o d o u b t d e p e n d o n th e sa l ie n c e o f c o m p e ti n g e v e n ts , s u c h a s R e u n ifi ca t io n fo r G e rm a n s, s o c o m p a ris o n s a c ro s s c o u n trie s a re m o re u s e fu l w ith in a g e c a te g o rie s , a s w e d o a t a la te r p o i n t (F ig . 4 ), a n d e v en th e n m u st b e c o n s id e re d in th e c o n te x t o f o t h e r e v e n ts . 17
G r ap h s o f U n ifi c at io n a n d E n v iro n m e n t a re m u c h li k e th o s e fo r th e G u lf W a r, e x c e p t th a t th e
E n v i ro n m e n t a ls o s h o w s a w e a k c u rv il in ea rit y s im il ar to th e O il C r is is (d is c u ss e d la t er) . T h e re la ti o n o f a g e to m en ti o n s o f th e E m p e ro r i s p re s en te d in F ig . 3 . 18
A l th o u g h th e l o g is ti c re g re s si o n y ie ld s a s ig n ific a n t q u a d ra t ic t e rm (P < .0 3 ), it is s l ig h t a n d le s s
v i si b l e t h a n th e h i g h ly s i g n ifi ca n t (P < .0 0 0 1 ) a n d v e ry v i si b l e l in ea r t re n d .
443
FIG. 2.
W o rl d W a r II, th e G u l f W a r, a n d t h e O il C ris is , b y a g e fo r J a p an e s e .
444
SCHUMAN, AKIYAMA, KNAUPER
th e tim e th e A ra b sta tes sud d e n ly a n d d ra stic a lly re du c ed th e flo w o f o il to th e W e st a n d Ja p an . Jap an is alm o st to tally de p en d e n t o n im po rts fo r o il, a n d th u s th e b oy c ott m a d e a lastin g im pre ssion o n m a n y Ja p an e se in th eir te e ns a n d tw e ntie s at th e tim e Ð m o re so th an on o lde r Jap a n ese Ð as re fle c te d in th e cu rv ilin ea r relatio n in Fig . 2 . F ig u re 3 p re sen ts th e o n e e v en t ab o ut w hic h w e w ere in itially u n c erta in : re sp o n ses co n c ern ing the Im p erial S yste m . T o th e e xte nt th a t th is is a tra ditio na l asp e ct o f Ja p an e se so c iety , o n e m ig ht h a ve e x pe c ted it to b e m e n tio n ed m os t often b y o lde r Ja pa n e se, the m ore so b e ca use th e ba se lin e da ta w e u se d in o u r qu e stio n re ferre d e x plicitly to th e b eg in nin g o f E m pe ro r H iro hi to ’ s reig n in 1 9 2 6. H ow e v er, th e late E m p e ror ’ s le ng th y te rm in al illn e ss in 1 9 88 a n d th e a sc en sio n to th e th ro n e o f E m p ero r A k ih ito too k p la c e le ss th a n tw o y ea rs p rio r to ou r su rve y a nd th us co n stitute d a v e ry re c en t ev e n t, 19 oc c urrin g in de e d in th e sa m e y ea r as the fall o f th e B e rlin W a ll. Fig u re 3 in d ic a tes th a t it w as rec en c y rath e r tha n trad itio n th a t le d to m o st o f th e m e m o ries re p o rte d b y the Y o k o h am a sam ple , for th e rela tio n is in ve rse ly a n d 20 sig n ific an tly rela ted to a g e. T h us the c h an g e s in the Im pe ria l S y stem h a d m o st im p ac t o n y o un g er Jap a n ese , m u ch as did rec e nt in tern a tio na l e ve n ts suc h as G erm an R e u n ific ation an d th e G u lf W ar. M o reo v er, e v en am o ng o ld e r re sp o n de n ts, no t a sin g le a nsw e r spe ak s o f th e 1 9 26 en th ron e m e n t o f H iro hito or o f the ea rly ye a rs o f h is re ig n ; m o st of th e re sp on se s re fer to E m pe ro r H iro hi to ’ s d e ath o r to th e tran sitio n fro m his era to th e n ew o n e (``the c h an g e fro m S ho w a to H eise i’ ’ w as a freq u en t resp o n se). T h e C o n te n t o f W o rld W a r II M en tio ns. A s w ou ld b e ex p ec ted , ag e w a s stro n g ly re late d to w h e the r m en tion s o f W o rld W ar II in c lud e d so m e re fere nc e to p erso n al or fam ily in v olv em e n t in the w a r, e .g . ``I w as in the bo m b in g a n d fa c e d d ea th d irec tly ’ ’ . Y o un g e r p e op le w h o re ferre d to th e w a r te n de d to spe a k in m o re g en e ral w ay s ab o ut its p o sitive ou tco m e s, suc h a s pe ac e , d em oc rac y , o r pro sp e rity .
19
E m p e ro r H i ro h it o su c c u m b e d o v e r a n e x te n d e d p e rio d o f ti m eÐ c o lla p s in g o n 1 9 S ep te m b e r,
1 9 8 8 , b u t n o t d y in g u n til 7 Ja n u ary , 1 9 8 9 Ð a n d th e m e d ia re p o rte d e v e ry d a y o n h is c o n d i tio n , p re s e n t in g m a n y m ed ic a l d e t ai ls th a t w o u l d n o t o rd in a ril y b e p u b l is h e d i n th e W e s t (F ie l d , 1 9 9 1 ). A cc o rd in g t o F ie l d ( 1 9 9 1 , p .i x ), th e p e rio d w a s ``liv e d w ith a p a rt ic u la r in te n s i ty b y m o s t J a p an e s e ’ ’ , a n d w ith m u c h co n ce rn th ro u g h o u t t h e n at io n o v e r h o w to a v o id o rd in a ry b u s in e s s a n d s o c i al a ct iv itie s t h a t m ig h t s e e m d is re s p e c t fu l. 20
T h e re is a h in t o f c u rv i li n e a ri ty , w it h an a p p a re n t p e ak o f m e n t io n s a m o n g th o s e 3 0 to 3 4 , b u t
th e tre n d d o e s n o t a p p r o a c h s t at is ti ca l si g n ifi ca n c e , is d i ffic u lt to i n t erp re t, a n d m u s t b e re g a rd e d a s in d i st in g u is h ab le in t h is s a m p le fro m c h a n c e v a ria tio n . H o w e v e r, w e s h o u ld n o te th a t t h e m o re lite ra l c o h o rt e ffe c t i n fe rre d fro m M a n n h e i m ’ s e m p h a s i s o n a d o l e sc e n c e a n d e a rly a d u l th o o d i s le s s a p p a re n t h e re, w i th th e p e a k m e n t io n s a l ittle o ld e r ( 3 0 ±3 4 ) th a n e x p e c te d , a l th o u g h t h e n u m b er o f c as e s o n w h ic h t h a t p o i n t is b a s e d i s q u ite s m a ll (n = 3 7 ).
445
FIG. 3.
M e n t io n s o f Im p e ria l S y s te m , b y a g e fo r J a p a n e s e . (B a s e N s a re s a m e as F i g . 2 .)
446
SCHUMAN, AKIYAMA, KNAUPER
H iro sh im a a s a S ym b o l of th e W a r. A s n o te d ea rlie r, B u ru m a (1 9 9 4 ) cla im s th a t H iro shim a is ``th e su p re m e sy m bo l of the P ac ific W a r’ ’ fo r th e Jap a n ese . W e c o un te d the nu m be r o f m e n tio ns o f H iro s him a by an y on e in th e sam p le , in clu d in g th o se w ho d id n o t use the n am e o f the c ity (or o f N ag a sak i) bu t sim p ly refe rred to th e dro p pin g o f a n ato m ic b o m b . O n ly 2 0 resp o n de n ts re fe rre d in a ny w ay to H irosh im a, a nd th is in clu de s tw o som ew h a t am b ig u o u s ca se s. T hu s o n ly a b o ut 2 % of th e Y o k o h am a sa m p le m e n tio ne d th e d ro p pin g of an ato m ic bo m b o n Ja pa n , a n d the p e rce n ta g e rise s to o n ly 3.7 % w h e n w e lim it th e b a se to th e 5 2 9 resp o n d en ts w h o m e n tio ne d W o rld W a r II in a n y w a y at a ll. M u c h o f Jap a n (in clu d in g Y ok o h am a) w as v e ry h ea v ily b om b ed d u rin g W o rld W a r II, an d by 1 94 5 ``60 p erc en t of th e g rou n d are a o f th e c o un try ’ s six ty la rg e r citie s an d to w n s ha d b e en b u rn t ou t’ ’ (K e eg a n , 19 9 0 , p .5 7 7). T h u s it is n o t su rp rising th a t th e m a n y refe ren c es to su fferin g d urin g W o rld W a r II w o u ld b e ba se d on pe rso n al e x pe rie n c e o f b o m b in g in a pa rtic ula r loc a lity suc h a s Y o k o ha m a, n o t o n th e sy m b o lic sig n ific an c e of H iro sh im a . In th is ca se it is im p ortan t to d istin g uish b e tw e e n tho se w h o a tte m p t to rep rese n t pu b lic v iew s an d th e larg e r pu b lic th at is b e in g rep re se nte d. (It d id se em lik ely th a t re sp on d e nts w h o m e ntio ne d H iro sh im a w o u ld b e yo u n ge r Jap a n ese ; th o se w h o se v iew of th e w ar m us t b e ba sed in cre asin g ly o n va rio u s fo rm s o f co n tin u ing pu b lic em ph a sis, ra the r th an on p erso na l e x pe rien c e. H o w ev e r, th e sm a ll n u m b er o f resp o n de n ts w h o m e n tio n H iro sh im a a re n o t d istin c tiv e in ag e , u n lik e G e rm a ns w h o m e n tio n th e de stru c tio n of Je w s, n or in ed u ca tion o r ge n de r.) T h e L eg a cy o f D e fea t. In co d in g W o rld W ar II m e ntio ns, w e n o te d sp ec ific re fe ren c es to Ja p an h av ing b e en d efe ate d in th e w ar in 15 % o f th e resp o nse s. T h is is a m uc h h ig h er rate th a n fo r G e rm an s, w h ere m e n tio n s o f d efe at oc c ur in le ss th an 2 % o f W o rld W a r II resp o n se s. T h e Ja pa n e se±G erm a n d iffere n ce is hig h ly sig n ifica n t (P < .0 0 1 ). T h e relatio n of Jap an ese refe ren c es to d e fea t an d a ge is w e ak ly a nd n e arly sig n ific an tly (P = .0 6 ) cu rv ilin ea r: d e fea t is m en tio n ed m ore o fte n b y tho se 1 8 to 34 a nd also by tho se 55 an d ov e r. T h is c a n b e se e n as c o n sisten t w ith B u ru m a ’ s (1 9 9 4) su g g estio n tha t a re a listic ac c ou n t o f th e w a r, in c lu d in g its c au se s a n d ou tc om es, te n d s to b e lo ca te d am o ng th e v ery o ld a nd the v ery y o un g Ð th e o ld be c au se th ey w e re bo rn b e fo re th e h e ig h t o f c ha u v in istic p ro pa g an d a a nd th e yo u n g b e ca u se th ey w ere b o rn a fte r it h a d p a ssed . It is d ifficu lt to te st this ide a m o re de fin itiv e ly , b ut w h a t is e ve n c le a re r in ou r d a ta is the find in g th a t de fe at is re fe rre d to inc rea sing ly a s the e d u ca tio n o f resp o n de n ts rises (w ith ag e co n trolled ): 8 % , 8 % , 14 % , 1 5 % , 25 % , a nd 2 4 % , re sp ec tiv e ly, a s o n e m o v e s fro m th ose w ith o nly e lem en tary sch o ol ed u ca tio n to th o se w ho h a v e a co lle g e de g ree o r m o re y e ars o f sch o o lin g . (G erm an m en tion s o f de fea t are to o few to sho w rela tio n s to a ge o r ed u ca tio n .)
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
447
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT GERMAN AND JAPANESE COLLECTIVE MEMORIES W h e re e x te rn al e v en ts o cc u rre d th at sh o uld h av e h ad sim ila r im p ac ts on G e rm a n an d Jap a n ese liv es, pre v io u s tab les a nd figu res su g g es t q u ite sim ila r e ffec ts in ter m s o f sa lie n t m e m o rie s o f w h a t w e re im p o rtan t n a tio n a l a n d w o rld h ap p en in g s ov e r th e p ast h a lf-c en tu ry . F ig u re 4 b rin gs to g eth e r tw o su ch e ve n ts for c lose r e x am in a tio n. E ac h co u n try fe lt th e e n orm ou s im pa c t o f W o rld W a r II, inc lud in g to w a rd s its en d th e c o nsta n t b o m b ing o f c itie s a n d th e a fte rm a th o f w id e sp rea d fea r an d su fferin g . F o rty -five y ea rs late r, e ac h c ou n try to o k th e ro le o f d ista n t o b serv e rs o f the G ulf W a r, p resse d to h elp th e U S e ffo rt b u t n o t b ec o m in g d irec tly in vo lve d a s co m ba tan ts. F igu re 4 sho w s q u ite sim ila r m e m o ry cu rv es b y a ge fo r th es e tw o e v en ts in th e tw o co u ntrie s, w ith W o rld W a r II m e n tio n ed e sp ec ially b y old e r p eo p le a n d the G u lf W a r b y th o se in th e ir yo u th . M e n tio n s o f W orld W a r II d ispla y a n in te re sting n o n-lin e a r stru ctu re, alth ou g h m o re cle arly fo r Jap a ne se th an for G e rm an s (w he re th e p erc en ta ge s are less re lia b le b ec a use o f sm a ller b ase N s). T h e g rap h c an b e se en a s h av ing tw o m a in pla te a us, join ed b y a stee p in c lin e in th e m id -ag e ran g e an d w ith a d ip fo r the o ld e st m e m b e rs of th e sam ple . T h e w a r h ad e nd e d so m e 4 5 ye a rs ea rlie r an d the lo w p la tea u fo r yo u n g er p eo p le c on sists esse n tia lly of a ll th o se w h o w ere b orn a fte r 1 9 4 5 or w e re v e ry yo u n g ch ild re n a t th at tim e Ð th u s the y d id n o t h av e d ire ct e xp e rie n ce o f th e w a r itse lf a nd in m o st c a ses fail to m en tio n it a s esp e cia lly im p o rta n t. A ste ep rise th e n o cc u rs a s co h o rts are inc lud e d tha t p ro g ress ed th ro u g h ch ild h o o d an d e arly ad o le sc en c e du ring th e w a r y ea rs. N e x t, the hig h pla te a u fo r old er p e op le c o nsists o f re sp on d en ts w ho w e re a ll y ou n g ad u lts d urin g W o rld W a r II. F in ally, th e dip fo r tho se 8 0 a n d o ve r fits th e M an n h eim hy p o th e sis th a t th e se old e st pe o ple , w h o w e re a lre ad y b e yo n d th eir late 2 0 s w he n W o rld W ar II sta rte d in 19 39 , sh o uld b e a little le ss affe cte d b y th e w ar ex p erien c e; ho w e v er, th e n u m b e r in th is o ld e st a ge c a te g ory (N = 4 1 ) is sm a ll a n d th ey m a y also pre se n t sp ec ial p rob lem s o f m em o ry lo ss. T o the e x te n t th a t th ere is an y thin g furth er to ex p la in ab o u t c o un try d iffe re n ce s in F ig. 4 , it h as to d o m ain ly w ith th e so m e w h at hig h er pe rc en tag e s o f W o rld W ar II m e m o ries fo r o ld e r Jap a n ese tha n for o lde r G erm a ns, alth ou g h the le ve ls a re m uc h th e sam e fo r y o u th in th e tw o c o un trie s. It is lik ely th at th e low e r pe rc en tag e by o lde r G erm an s is du e to th e c o m p e tin g sa lie n c e o f m e m o ries o f th e re ce nt reu n ific a tio n. T h e lo gic o f o ur q ue stio n , w h ic h ca lle d fo r m e n tio n in g tw o im p o rta nt ev e nts, d id no t m ak e W o rld W a r II a nd D iv isio n o r R eu n ific ation m u tua lly e x clu siv e, b ut th e y m a y h av e ten d ed to b e m utu a lly ex c lu siv e in th e m e m o ries o f G e rm an resp o n de n ts. O f c o urse , e ve n w he re le ve ls o f m en tio n s o f th e sa m e ev e n t a re q u ite sim ila r b y G e rm a n s a n d J ap a n e se , th is d o e s n o t n e c e s sa rily p o in t to id e n tic a l m o tiv a tio n s. In th e c ase o f th e G ulf W ar, a lth ou g h o b je c tio ns to w ar as suc h w as the m o st fre qu e n t re aso n g iv en in b o th co u ntrie s, G erm a n s m o re o fte n
448
FIG. 4.
W o rl d W ar II a n d G u l f W a r m e n t io n s b y G e rm an s a n d Ja p a n e s e , b y a g e. (B a s e N s a re s a m e a s F i g . 1 fo r G er m a n s an d F ig . 2 fo r J a p a n e s e .)
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
449
ex p resse d p o ssible an x iety a bo u t th e e n la rge m en t o f the w a r to in clu d e G erm an y (28 % ), p e rha p s fitting th e ir c lose r p rox im ity to th e G ulf, as a g ain st the p a ra lle l resp o n se (7 % ) fo r Jap a n ese . O n th e o the r h an d , Ja p an e se m ore o fte n c ite d th e p ossib le e ffec ts o f th e G u lf W ar o n o il p rice s (1 2 % ) th an d id G er m a ns (4 % ), co n sisten t w ith th e m o re fre q ue n t Ja pa n e se m e n tio n s o f th e 1 97 3 o il c risis. It is also inte restin g to n o te th at five G e rm a n s lik e ne d Iraq ’ s H u ssein to H itler; n o Jap a n ese d re w a ny sim ila r p ara lle l. O ur d a ta o n the re aso n s p eo p le g iv e fo r m en tio n in g a n e ve n t are also v alu a ble in p oin tin g u p th e rela tio n to tim e o f th e distin ctio n be tw e e n e piso d ic an d sem an tic m e m o rie s. W o rld W ar II d iffers fro m m o st la te r e ve n ts in th e hig h d eg ree to w hic h m em or ie s co n ce rnin g it are a u to b iog ra p hic al ra the r th a n a m a tte r o f a bstra ct lea rn ing a b o ut th e p ast. Su c h p erso n ally e xp e rie n ce d e arly ev e n ts ca n e m e rge fro m m e m o ry w ith little o r n o he lp from e x te rn al stim u li, w he rea s m a ny re ce n t ev e nts like th e G u lf W a r a re like ly to b e rem e m b ere d m a inly b e ca u se of th e ir salien c e in th e m e d ia . T h is su g ge sts th e hy p o the sis tha t rec en t e ve n ts th a t are n ot d ire c tly e xp e rie n tia l w ill sho w le ss sh arp c oh o rt e ffe cts tha n e arlier e v en ts, b ec au se th e ne a rly u n ive rsa l ex p o su re to th e m a ss m ed ia w ill b e th e p rim a ry c au sa l fa cto r, n o t th e ea rlie r de ep e r en c od in g th a t is c on n ec te d to the self (C on w a y, 19 9 7 ). F igu re 4 p ro vid es som e p relim in a ry e v id e nc e : fo r G erm an s th e ab so lu te v a lu e o f th e line a r slo p e fo r W o rld W ar II is m o re tha n tw ic e as g rea t a s tha t for th e G ulf W a r, an d fo r Jap a n ese the ra tio is m o re tha n thre e to o n e. T h u s, d istin ct co h o rt e ffe c ts a re g rea ter fo r th e e arlie r tha n fo r th e m o re re c en t ev en t. W e a re n o t sug g e stin g th at rec en t ev e nts ca n n ot be ev e ry b it a s p erso n a lly m e an in g ful a nd th ere fore a s lik e ly to y ie ld au tob io g ra p hic a l m em o rie s a s ea rlie r ev e n ts. In 1 94 5 , W o rld W ar II, th e n a ``re ce n t’ ’ e v en t, w o u ld do u b tle ss h av e p ro d u c ed m an y e p isod ic m e m o ries. W ha t w e a re sug g e stin g is th at fo r e ve n ts n ot p e rso n a lly im p o rta n t in a n au tob io g ra p h ic a l se n se , rec e nc y w ill ten d to be a n ec essa ry fa cto r in h av in g the m b rou g h t to m in d in resp o n se to a g en e ra l in q uiry lik e o ur E v en ts q ue stio n s. It is strik in g th a t ev e n a n e ve n t as ``o b jec tiv ely ’ ’ sign ific a nt a s W orld W a r II w as m en tio ne d as e spe c ia lly im p o rta n t b y on ly ab o u t a q u arter o f y o u th fro m th e tw o c ou n trie s. W h en w e tu rn to e ve n ts le ss fre q ue n tly m e n tio n ed tha n W o rld W ar II an d th e G ulf W a r, th ere a re tw o c o ho rt e ffe cts th at a re o f p artic u la r the o retica l im p orta nc e b e ca u se o f th eir c u rv ilin e arity: T h e E uro p e an C o m m u nity fo r G erm an s (see F ig . 1 ) a n d th e 1 97 3 oil c risis fo r Ja pa n e se (see Fig . 2 ). T h e rela tiv e ly lo w m e n tio n of th ese e ve n ts b y v ery yo u n g pe o ple (e.g . Jap an e se u nd e r a g e 30 in 19 9 1 ) c an re a dily b e a ttrib u te d to th e fa ct th a t th e y w e re to o y ou n g to h av e b e en aw a re of suc h e v en ts w h e n th e y o cc u rred . H ow e v er, lac k o f m e n tio n b y o ld er p eo p le (e .g . Ja p an e se a g e 6 0 a nd a b ov e in 1 9 91 , alth ou g h n ea rly 2 0 y e ar s y o u ng e r in 1 9 73 ) ca n n ot b e e x p la in e d by th eir un a w are n ess o f the ev e nt a t th e tim e it o cc u rre d . T h u s the se re su lts pro v ide furth er e vid en c e fo r the u niq u e im po rtan c e of a d ole sce n ce a n d ea rly a d ultho o d a s a p e rio d d urin g
450
SCHUMAN, AKIYAMA, KNAUPER
w h ich c ollec tive m e m o ries o f p ub lic e ve n ts ten d to be im p rin ted . A t th e sa m e tim e , w e n e ed to e x te n d th e critic al ag e ra ng e fo r c o lle ctiv e m e m o rie s in bo th dire ction s: to in clu d e la te r c h ild h oo d fo r ev e nts tha t are sim p le an d d ra m a tic, suc h a s th e b u ild ing o f the B e rlin W a ll, an d to in c lu d e th e late tw e n tie s o r ev e n ea rly th irtie s fo r e v en ts tha t a re m o re a bstra ct a nd c om p le x . T h ere are a lso sev e ral sm a ll b ut ap p are ntly re lia b le differe n ce s be tw e e n o u r G e rm an an d Jap a ne se re su lts th a t a re intrig uin g b e ca u se th ey sug g es t su b tle va ria tio ns in th e w a y the tw o c o un tries ex p er ie n ce d w h at w a s bro ad ly th e sa m e ev e nt. T h ese b etw e en -c ou n try diffe ren ce s ra ise a ga in the issu e d isc u sse d at th e be g inn in g o f this artic le: th e rela tio n b etw e en ``c o lle ctiv e m em o ry’ ’ , a s pro m u lg a te d b y in tere sted e lite s a nd o rg an isa tio n s, a n d th e c ollec tiv e m e m o rie s of o rd in a ry in div id ua ls. F irst, w e n ote d th e h igh e r pro p ortion o f m en tion s o f a n ``e co n o m ic m ira cle ’ ’ or its e qu iv ale nt by G e rm a n s tha n b y Jap a n ese , ev e n th o u gh bo th co u n tries re c o ve red in a relativ ely sh o rt tim e from W o rld W ar II d e va statio n to b ec om e m a jo r ec o n om ic po w e rs o n th e w o rld sce n e . O u r te nta tiv e e x p la n atio n is th at th e G e rm an ec o no m ic d e ve lo p m e nt, b e gin nin g w ith the 1 9 4 8 c urre n cy re fo rm , w a s m o re ra pid a nd d ram atic, a t le a st p artly d u e to th e b en efits th a t flo w e d fro m th e M a rsh all P la n , a n d th a t th is w a s e spe c ially tru e in te rm s o f the im p a ct o f de v elo p m e n t o n pe r ca p ita c o n sum p tio n , w h ic h re m ain ed m u c h lo w e r in po st21 w a r Ja p an th a n in W est G e rm an y . In ad d ition , this m a y also b e a ca se w he re a co lle c tiv e m e m o ry em b ed d ed in th e la n g u ag e in the fo rm o f th e term ``e co n o m ic m irac le’ ’ (W irtsch a ftsw u n de r’ ’ ) h a s c o n tin u ed to m a k e th e ea rly e co n o m ic re c o ve ry m o re a cc essib le to in d iv id ua l G e rm an m e m o ries in la te r ye a rs a n d th u s affe cte d resp o n se s to o u r E v en ts qu e stio n s (c f. S ch u d so n, 1 9 9 2), w ith e ve n th e in tern a l allitera tio n o f th e G e rm a n te rm a n aid to its u se an d m e m o ry (cf. R u b in , 19 9 5 ). S e c on d , th e Jap a n ese w ere m u c h m o re lik ely th a n th e G erm an s to m e n tio n th e 1 9 7 3 oil c risis, alth ou g h b o th c o u ntries relied h e av ily o n im p orted o il a t tha t po in t in tim e. H ow e v er, ``o f a ll the in du stria l co u n trie s, [Ja pa n ] w as th e o n e m o st d ep e nd e n t on o il a s a sou rc e o f to ta l en e rg y ’ ’ (Y erg in , 1 99 1 , p.6 28 ), a n d th e re w ere re alistic d iffe ren c e s in th e de g re e to w h ich the tw o c o un tries w e re be in g h arm ed b y the em b arg o a n d th e sh arp esc a la tio n in oil price s. In a d dition , ord in ary Ja p an e se m a y h av e b ee n a ffec ted b y th is ev id en t fu lfilm e n t o f ea rlie r elite p ro no u n c em en ts a bo u t th eir c o un try’ s la c k of n atu ra l re sou rc es an d its 21
O n J a p a n ’ s l ag in p e r c ap it a l c o n s u m p tio n , a s c o m p a re d t o i ts m o r e r ap id p ac e i n p e r c a p i ta
g ro s s d o m e s ti c p ro d u ct (G D P ), s e e D e n is o n an d C h u n g (1 9 7 6 ). O n th e e ffe c t o f th e M a rs h a l l P la n , se e t h e c o m m e n t b y W es t G e rm a n y ’ s fo rm er C h a n c e l lo r, H e l m u t S c h m id t (1 9 9 7 ). U n fo rtu n at e ly it h a s p ro v e n d iffi cu lt to l o c a t e m o re d i re c t e v id e n c e b a se d o n a cl o s e c o m p ari s o n o f G e rm a n a n d Ja p a n e s e p o s t- w a r e c o n o m ic d e v e l o p m e n t. T h e re a re m a n y s e p a ra t e st u d ie s o f e a c h c o u n t ry b y e co n o m ic h i st o ri a n s , b u t ap p a re n tly n o c lo s e c o m p a ris o n o f th e tw o . W e s h o u ld a c k n o w le d g e th a t o n th is p o i n t , a s w e ll a s o n th e tw o p o in ts t h a t fo llo w , o u r in te rp re ta ti o n s re m a in m o re s p e c u la ti v e th a n w e w o u ld p re fe r.
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
451
ex trem e vu lne rab ility to a n y c u t-o ff o f im p o rtsÐ th e p ro no u n ce m en ts cre atin g a k in d o f p erm an e n t co lle c tiv e m e m o ry w aitin g to b e ac tua ted . In de ed , the p a nic in Ja pa n resu ltin g fro m th e o il c risis sp re a d to a v arie ty o f oth er p rod u c ts, lea din g to w ide sp rea d h oa rd in g a nd to sh o rta g e s n o t dire ctly re lated to oil (T su c h iy a , 1 98 6 ; Y e rg in, 1 9 9 1, p .6 1 6). T h ird , Ja p an e se re fer to th e d e fea t o f th e ir co u n try in W o rld W a r II m o re o fte n tha n G e rm a n s re fer to th eir de fe at. It is d ifficu lt from a W este rn stan d p o in t to se e th e co m p le te loss of th e w a r by th e tw o co u n trie s to h av e b ee n ve ry d iffe re n t, a lth o ug h G e rm a ny ’ s situa tio n w as no t a s u niq ue , a s it h ad b ee n d efe ate d in W o rld W ar I just a q ua rte r o f a c en tu ry e a rlier. B u t the m ore fre q u en t m e n tio n s o f d efe a t b y Jap a n ese m ay be a n e xa m p le o f h o w th e fo rm a l p u b lic ex p ressio n o f a co lle c tiv e m e m o ry th ro ug h so cieta l co m m e m o ration h e lp s sh ap e ind ivid u a l m e m o ries (c f. S c h w artz , 19 9 7 ). 1 5 A u gu st, the da y Jap an su rren d ere d in 1 9 4 5, is ce leb ra ted a nn u ally as a w a y of h o n ou rin g th o se Jap a n ese k illed in the w a r a n d it h as b e co m e k no w n in som e q u arters in Jap a n a s th e ``A n niv e rsa ry o f D efe at’ ’ . N o th ing e q u iva len t o cc u rs in G erm an y e ith e r o n a n a nn u al b a sis o r w ith th a t re fere n ce . F in a lly , w h e n w e turn a g ain to c o nsid er m e m o ries of cru c ia l h ap p en in g s w ith in th e W orld W a r II p e riod , th e lim itation s o f an e lite-sp o n so re d co llec tiv e m e m o ry in the fa ce o f p o w e rfu l au to bio g ra p hic a l m e m o ries b e co m e cle ar fo r b oth co u n trie s, alb eit for tw o q u ite differe n t e v en ts. T o th e n aiv e o u tsid e o bse rv er, e sp ec ially so m e o n e w ho thin k s o f co lle c tiv e m em ory in te rm s o f im p orta nt po litic a l sym b o ls, th ere m igh t w e ll b e th e a n tic ipa tio n o f he a rin g freq u en tly the w o rd ``H o loc a ust’ ’ o r its eq u iva len t m en tion e d b y G e rm a n s, an d ``H iro sh im a’ ’ o r its eq u iva le nt b y Jap a n ese . Y et th ere are fe w su ch m en tion s in the tw o sam p le s: o n ly 7 o u t o f 7 2 8 G e rm a n s re fer in an y w ay to Jew s a nd on ly 2 0 o ut o f 8 4 3 Ja pa n ese re fer to H iros him a, N ag a sak i, or th e a to m ic b o m b . A t th e sam e tim e, in e ac h co u n try larg e n um be rs d o ta lk ab o ut W orld W a r II an d esp e cia lly ab o u t th e ne g ativ e c on se q ue n ce s it h a d fo r th e m se lve s a nd th eir fam ilie s. If w e ha d on ly th e G e rm a n re su lt, w e m ig ht b e tem pte d to sp ec u la te o n h ow d iffic u lt it is to re po rt m em orie s tha t ch a rac terise on e ’ s n atio n a s v ictim iser. H ow e v e r, o ur Ja p an e se sam ple se ld o m m e ntion e d H irosh im a , d e spite th e fac t tha t th e term ide n tifies th em a s v ic tim s, no t as vic tim ise rs. W h en w e ta k e th e tw o fin d in g s to g eth e rÐ th e pa u city o f re fere nc e s e ith e r to th e H olo ca u st o r to H iro sh im a Ð w e c a n co n n ec t b o th resu lts to a p erv a siv e fin din g o f c ro ss-s ec tio n su rv e y s a ro un d th e w o rld : ord ina ry in div id ua ls (``the g e n era l p u blic’ ’ ) are u sua lly m u c h m ore co n ce rn ed w ith th e im p a ct of ev e n ts o n th eir ow n pe rso na l liv e s th an th e y are w ith the ev e nts an d sy m bo ls th at oc c up y m uc h of th e 22 atten tion o f in telle ctu als, p o litic a l le ad e rs , an d a ca d em ic inv e stig ato rs. 22
In th e lo n g ru n , el ite -s p o n s o re d c o lle c ti v e m e m o rie s m ay n e v er th e l e ss w i n o u t , o n ce th e
g e n e ra tio n s h a v in g e v e n d i st a n t c o n n e ct io n to W o rld W a r II h a v e d is a p p e a re d c o m p l e te ly , th o u g h b y th a t p o i n t n o n e o f t h e m e m o rie s m a y c ar ry m u ch m e a n i n g fo r o rd in ar y p eo p le .
452
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REFERENCES A n d re w s, F .M ., M o rg a n , N .J., S o n q u is t, J .A ., & K le m , L . (1 9 7 3 ). M u ltip l e c la s s ific a ti o n a n a ly s is . A n n A rb o r: In st itu te fo r S o ci a l R e s e arc h . B e n e d ic t, R . (1 9 4 6 ). T h e ch r y s a n th e m u m a n d t h e sw o r d : P a t te r n s o f J a p a n es e c u l tu r e. N ew Y o rk : H o u g h to n M iffli n . B ro w n in g , C . (1 9 9 2 ). O r d in a r y m e n : R e se r v e p o li ce b a t ta lio n 1 0 1 a n d th e f in a l so lu ti o n in P o la n d . N e w Y o rk : H a rp e rC o l lin s. B u ru m a , I. (1 9 9 4 ). T h e w a g e s o f g u i lt: M e m o ri es o f w a r i n G e r m a n y a n d J a p a n . N e w Y o r k : F a rra r S tra u s G i ro u x . C o n w a y , M .A . (1 9 9 0 ). A u to b io g r a p h i c a l m em o r y : A n in tr o d u c ti o n . M i lto n K ey n e s, U K : O p e n U n iv e rs ity P re s s . C o n w a y , M .A . (1 9 9 7 ). T h e in v e n to ry o f e x p e ri e n c e: m e m o r y a n d i d e n tif y . In J .W . P e n n eb a k er, D . P a e z, & B . R im e (E d s .) C o ll e ct ive m e m o r y o f p o litic a l e v e n t s: S o c ia l p s y c h o lo g i ca l p e r s p e c ti ve s ( p p .2 1 ±4 5 ). H il ls d a l e, N J : E rlb a u m . D an ig e lis, N .L ., & C u tl e r, S .J. (1 9 9 1 ). C o h o rt tre n d s i n a t titu d e s a b o u t la w a n d o rd e r: W h o ’ s l e a d i n g th e c o n s e rv a tiv e w a v e ? P u b li c O p in io n Q u a r te r ly , 5 5 , 2 4 ±2 9 . D av is , J .A . (1 9 9 2 ). C h a n g e a b l e w e a th e r in a c o o li n g c lim a te a to p th e lib e ra l p la te a u : C o n v e rs io n a n d re p la c e m en t in fo rt y -t w o g e n e ra l so c ia l s u r v e y it e m s, 1 9 7 2 ±1 9 8 9 . P u b li c O p in io n Q u a r te r ly, 5 6 , 2 6 1 ±3 0 6 . D en is o n , E .F ., & C h u n g , W .K . (1 9 7 6 ).
E c o n o m i c g ro w th a n d its so u rce s . In H . P a tric k a n d H .
R o s o v s k y (E d s ) A s ia ’ s n ew g ia n t: H o w t h e J a p a n es e e c o n o m y w o rk s (p p .6 3 ±1 5 1 ). W a sh in g to n D C : B ro o k in g s In st itu te . F ie l d , N . (1 9 9 1 ). In th e r ea lm o f a d y i n g E m p e r o r: A p o r tr a it o f J a p a n a t c e n t u r y ’ s e n d . N e w Y o rk : P antheo n B o ok s. F it z g e ra ld , J .M . (1 9 8 8 ). V i v i d m e m o rie s an d th e re m in is c en c e p h e n o m e n o n : T h e ro l e o f a s el f n a rra ti v e . H u m a n D e v e lo p m e n t, 3 1 , 2 6 1 ±2 7 3 . H al b w a c h s, M . (1 9 5 0 /1 9 8 0 ). T h e c o l le c ti ve m e m o r y . N e w Y o rk : H a rp e r. H ei n ri c h , H .A . (1 9 9 6 ). Z e it h i s to r is c h e E re ig n is s e a l s K ris t a llisa tio n sp u n k te v o n G e rer at io n e n . R ep li k a t io n e in es M es s in s tru m e n te s . Z u m a -N a c h ric h te n , 3 9 . Ja p a n S ta ti st ic a l A ss o c ia ti o n (1 9 9 7 ). 1 9 9 8 J a p a n S ta ti st ic a l Y e a rb o o k . J a p a n : A u t h o r. Je n n in g s , M .K . (1 9 9 6 ). P o li tic a l k n o w l e d g e a c ro ss tim e a n d g e n e ra t io n s . P u b l ic O p in io n Q u a r te r ly, 6 0 , 2 2 8 ±2 5 2 . K ee g a n , J. (1 9 9 0 ). T h e S ec o n d W o r ld W a r . N e w Y o rk : V ik in g . K o o n z , C . (1 9 9 4 ). B et w e en m e m o ry a n d o b li v i o n : C o n c e n trat io n c a m p s i n G e rm a n m e m o ry . In J .R . G i llis (E d .) C o m m e m o r a ti o n s : T h e p o litic s o f n a t io n a l i d e n tity (p p .2 5 8 ±2 8 0 ). P ri n c e to n , N J : P rin c e to n U n i v e rs it y P re s s . K ro s n ic k , J .A ., & A l w in , D .F . (1 9 8 9 ). A g i n g a n d s u s c e p t ib ility to a tt itu d e c h a n g e . J o u r n a l o f P e r so n a l ity a n d S o c ia l P s y c h o lo g y , 5 7 , 4 1 6 ±4 2 5 . M a n n h e im , K . (1 9 2 8 /1 9 5 2 ). T h e p ro b l em o f g en e ra ti o n s . In K . M a n n h e im , E s s a y s o n th e s o c io lo g y o f kn o w le d g e (p p .2 7 6 ±3 2 2 ). L o n d o n : R o u t le d g e & K e g a n P a u l. M il le r, J . (1 9 9 0 ). O n e b y o n e b y o n e : F a c in g t h e H o lo ca u st . N e w Y o rk : S im o n & S ch u st e r. M it s ch e rli ch , A ., & M it sc h e rlic h , M . ( 1 9 7 5 ). T h e in a b il ity t o m o u rn : P ri n c i p l es o f c o ll e c tiv e b e h a v io r . N e w Y o rk : G ro v e P re s s. P e n n e b ak e r, J .W ., &
B a n as i k , B .L . (1 9 9 7 ). O n th e c re a ti o n a n d
m a in te n a n c e o f c o l le c ti v e
m e m o rie s . In J.W . P e n n e b a k e r, D . P ae z , & B . R im e ( E d s.), C o lle c ti v e m e m o r y o f p o litic a l e v e n ts : S o c ia l p s y c h o lo g ic a l p e r sp e c tiv e s (p p .3 ±1 9 ). H illsd a le , N J : E rl b a u m . R o b e rts , C .W ., & L an g , K . (1 9 8 5 ). G en e ra ti o n s an d id e o l o g ic a l c h an g e : S o m e o b s er v a ti o n s . P u b l ic O p in io n Q u a r te r ly , 4 9 , 4 6 0 ±4 7 3 . R u b in , D .C . (1 9 9 5 ). M e m o ry in o r a l tr a d it io n : T h e c o g n i ti ve p s y ch o lo g y o f e p i c , b a ll a d s , a n d c o u n t in g -o u t r h y m es . N e w Y o rk : O x fo rd U n iv e rs ity P re s s .
COLLECTIVE MEMORIES R u b in , D .C ., R a h h a l, T .A ., &
P o o n , L .W . (1 9 9 8 ). T h i n g s l e a rn e d
in e a rl y
453
a d u lth o o d
a re
re m em b e re d b e st . M em o r y a n d C o g n it io n , 2 6 , 3 ±1 9 . R u b i n , D .C ., W e tz le r, S .E ., & N e b e s , R .D . (1 9 8 6 ). A u t o b io g r ap h ic a l m e m o ry ac ro s s th e life s p a n . In D .C . R u b in (E d .), A u to b i o g ra p h ic a l m e m o ry ( p p .2 0 2 ±2 2 1 ). C a m b rid g e : C a m b ri d g e U n i v e rs it y P re s s . S c h m id t, H . (1 9 9 7 ). M il es to g o : F ro m A m e ric a n p l a n to E u ro p e a n U n i o n . F o r ei g n A f fa ir s, 7 6 , 2 1 3 ± 22 1. S c h u d s o n , M . (1 9 9 2 ). W a t e rg a te i n A m er i ca n m e m o r y : H o w w e r e m em b e r , f o r g e t, a n d re c o n s t ru c t th e p a st . N e w Y o rk : B a s ic B o o k s. S c h u m a n , H .R ., B el li , F ., & B is c h o p in g , K . (1 9 9 7 ). T h e g e n er at io n a l b a si s o f h is to ric a l k n o w le d g e . In J .W . P e n n e b a k e r, D . P a e z , & B . R i m e (E d s.), C o lle c ti v e m e m o r y o f p o litic a l e v e n ts : S o c ia l p s y c h o lo g ic a l p e r sp e c tiv e s (p p .4 7 ±7 7 ). H il ls d a l e , N J : E rlb a u m . S c h u m a n , H ., & C o rn in g , A . (1 9 9 7 ). C o lle c ti v e k n o w le d g e in R u s si a : F r o m t h e G r e a t P u r g e to g l a s n o s t. P ap e r p re s e n te d a t th e A m e ri c an A s s o c ia tio n fo r P u b l ic o p in io n R e se a rc h , N o rfo lk , V irg in ia , M a y . S c h u m a n , H ., &
R ie g e r, C . (1 9 9 6 ) . A n
exp erim ent on
a sking
a b o u t c o l le c t i v e
m e m o ri e s .
U n p u b li sh e d m e m o . A n n A rb o r: In st itu te fo r S o c ia l R e s ea rc h . S c h u m a n , H ., & S c o tt, J . (1 9 8 9 ). G e n e ra tio n s a n d c o ll ec t iv e m e m o rie s . A m er i ca n S o c io lo g ic a l R e v i ew , 5 4 , 3 5 9 ±3 8 1 . S c h w art z , B . (1 9 8 2 ). T h e so c ia l c o n te x t o f c o m m e m o ra tio n : A s t u d y o f c o l le c ti v e m e m o ry . S o c ia l F o rc e s , 6 1 , 3 7 4 ±4 0 2 . S c h w art z , B . (1 9 9 7 ). C o lle c tiv e m e m o ry a n d h is to ry : W h y A b ra h a m L i n c o ln b e c a m e a s y m b o l o f ra c ia l e q u a li ty . S o c io lo g ic a l Q u a r te r ly , 3 8 , 4 6 9 ±4 9 6 . S c o tt, J ., & Z a c , L . (1 9 9 3 ). C o lle c tiv e m e m o ries in B rit ai n a n d th e U n ite d S ta t e s. P u b lic O p in io n Q u a r te r ly, 5 7 , 3 1 5 ±3 3 1 . T s u c h iy a , K . (1 9 8 6 ). M id d l e E a s te rn o il a n d th e J a p an e s e e c o n o m y . In H . H a x , W . K ra u s, & K . T s u c h iy a (E d s .), S tr u c tu ra l c h a n g e : T h e c h a ll e n g e t o in d u s tr ia l so c ie t ie s (p p .2 9 ±4 1 ). B e rl in : S p rin g e r-V erl a g . T u lv in g , E . (1 9 7 2 ) . E p is o d ic a n d s em a n ti c m e m o ry . In E . T u lv in g & W . D o n al d s o n (E d s.), O rg a n i za t io n o f m e m o ry (p p .3 8 1 ±4 0 3 ). N e w Y o rk : A c a d e m i c P re s s. T u lv in g , E . (1 9 8 3 ). E le m e n ts o f e p is o d i c m e m o ry . N e w Y o rk : O x fo rd U n iv e rs ity P re s s . T y le r, T .R ., & S c h u lle r, R .A . (1 9 9 1 ). A g i n g a n d a tt itu d e ch a n g e . Jo u rn a l o f P er s o n a li ty a n d S o c ia l P s y c h o lo g y , 6 1 , 6 8 9 ±6 9 7 . U n i te d N a ti o n s (1 9 9 5 ) . U n ite d N a t io n s s ta tisti c a l y e a r b o o k , fo r tie t h is s u e. N ew Y o rk : A u th o r . W e i d e n fe ld , W ., & L u t z , F .P . ( 1 9 9 4 ). T h e d iv id e d n a tio n : H i s to ric a l c o n s c io u s n es s in p o s tu n ifi c at io n G e rm a n y . G e rm a n P o li tic s a n d S o c ie ty , 3 3 , 1 1 7 ±1 4 5 . Y e rg i n , D . (1 9 9 1 ). T h e p r i ze : T h e e p i c q u es t f o r o il , m o n e y, a n d p o w e r. N e w Y o r k : S im o n & S c h u s te r.
APPENDIX German Question Wording: In d e n le tze n 50 Ja hr en , a lso se it e tw a 1 94 0 , h a t es e in e R e ih e n a tio na ler u n d intg ern a tio n ale r V e raÈ n d eru n ge n ge g eb e n . K oÈ nn ten S ie m ir b itte ein o d er z w e i d ie ser E re ign isse o d e r V eraÈ n de ru n ge n n e nn e n , die Ih n en be so n d ers w ic h tig e rsc h ien e n sin d . A u f d ie se F ra g e g ib t e s k e in e r ic h tig e n o d e r f alsc h e n A ntw o rte n , e s ge h t u n s g an z be so nd e rs da ru m , z u erfa hre n , w elc h e w ich tig e n n ation a len o de r in tern a tio n ale n E reig n isse Ih ne n in d en S inn k o m m en . W a s m a ch t d as E re ign is b eso n d ers w ich tig fuÈ r Sie ?
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G a b e s in d iese r Z eit irg e nd e in a n de re s n ation a les od e r in tern a tio n ales E re ign is od e r ein e V e raÈ n d eru n g, d ie fuÈ r S ie b e son d e rs w ic htig w a r? U n d w as m ac h t d iese s E re ig nis b eso n d ers w ic h tig fuÈ r S ie ?
Japanese Question Wording:
M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 4 5 5 ±4 6 5
F o r w a r d T e le sc o p in g : T h e Q u e s tio n M a tte r s V in c e n t P ro h a sk a L e hm a n C o lleg e , T h e C ity U niv er sity o f N e w Y ork , U S A
N o rm a n R . B ro w n U niv ersity o f A lb erta , C an a d a
R o b e rt F . B e lli U n ive rsity o f M ic h ig a n , U S A
F o rw a rd tele sc op ing , th e r ep o rtin g or da tin g o f e v e nts a s b e in g m or e re c en t th an th e y a c tu a lly w e re , is o fte n o b se rv e d in s u rv ey s a n d p ro d u ce s in ac c ur a te d ata . W e be lie v e th a t s om e fo rw a rd tele sc o ping o c cu r s w h e n th e q ue st io n fo r m a t a llo w s pe o ple to re s p o n d w ith ou t ex ten si v e r etrie va l o f te m p o ra l inf o rm a tio n co n ce r ning th e ta rg e t e v e nts. W e c o lle c te d tw o typ e s o f da ta . T he f irst , th e typ e u su ally co lle c te d b y su rv e y r es ea r ch e rs , in v olv ed v isits to m e dic al do c to rs . A s is c o m m on in s ur ve y r es e ar ch , th e a ctu al d a te s o f the e v e n ts w e re n o t ve r ifia ble . T h e s ec o nd ty p e in v olv ed s tu d en ts ’ pa r ticip atio n in la b o ra to ry r e se ar c h st ud ies . H e re , th e ac tua l d a tes w er e v er ifia b le . W e d em o n st ra te th at m o dify ing the q u es tion s as k ed pr od u c ed d iffe re n ce s in the a m o u n t o f f o rw a rd te le s co p in g in p a rtic ipa n ts ’ re sp o ns es .
INTRODUCTION ``H a v e y ou b ee n tre a te d b y a m ed ica l d o cto r d u rin g th e la st six m o n ths? ’ ’ ``O n w ha t d ate d id y o u bu y y ou r h om e c o m p u ter? ’ ’ ``S inc e th e b e g in n in g o f th is y e ar, h av e y o u b ee n th e v ictim o f a c rim e? ’ ’ ``W h en d id y o u la st try to sto p sm o k in g? ’ ’ Q ue stio n s su ch as th ese are co m m o n ly a ske d on a v a rie ty o f surv e y s to asc e rta in th e p re v a le n ce a n d fre q u en c ie s o f su c h ev en ts, an d to m a k e de c isio n s ab o u t th e a llo c atio n o f n ee d ed re sou rce s. Su c h qu e stio n s are also o f in tere st to m e m o ry re sea rch e rs, e sp ec ially th o se c on c ern e d w ith h o w tem po ra l in fo rm a tio n is rep re se nte d an d re trie v ed . P rio r in v e stig ato rs ha v e fou n d th at pe o ple ’ s
R e q u e s ts fo r re p rin ts s h o u ld b e s e n t to V in c e n t P ro h a s k a, D e p a rt m e n t o f P s y c h o l o g y , L e h m an C o lle g e , 2 5 0 W . B e d fo r d P a rk B lv d ., B ro n x , N Y , 1 0 4 6 8 ±1 5 8 9 , U S A . E m a i l: v i n c e n tp @ a lp h a .l eh m a n .c u n y .e d u T h is re se a rc h w a s s u p p o rte d b y a n o p e ra ti n g g ra n t fr o m th e N a tu ra l S c ie n c es & E n g in e e rin g R e s e arc h C o u n c il o f C a n ad a a n d b y a g ra n t fro m
th e N at io n a l In st itu te o f M e n t a l H e a lth
#R 24 M H 4 974 7 .
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1 9 9 8 P s y ch o lo g y P re s s L td
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re sp o n ses to th ese qu e stio n s o fte n c o nta in a p a rtic u la r fo rm o f e rror ca lle d ``fo rw a rd te lesc o pin g ’ ’ . Fo rw ard te lesc o p in g is th e re p orting o f e ve n ts a s h a vin g oc c urre d m o re re ce n tly tha n th e y a c tua lly o c cu rred . F o r ex a m p le , if a resp o n d en t say s ``Y es’ ’ to visitin g a d o cto r du rin g th e la st six m on ths, w h en a ctu ally th e la st visit w a s e ig h t m o nth s a go , o r rep o rts c o m p letin g a m a jo r h o m e re p a ir d u rin g M a y , w h e n th e re p a ir w a s ac tua lly c o m p lete d d u rin g A p ril, th e re p o rt h a s b ee n fo rw ar d te le sc op e d. F o rw ard tele sco p ing e rrors a re c o m m on w h en e v er p e o ple an sw e r q ue stion s ab o ut w he n a uto b iog ra ph ic al e v en ts o c cu rred (e .g . C oh e n & Jav a , 19 9 5 ; H u tte n lo ch e r, H ed ge s, & P ro ha sk a , 1 9 8 8 ; L o ftu s & M a rbu rg er, 19 8 3 ; M ea n s & L o ftu s, 1 9 9 1 ; N eter & W a ks be rg , 1 9 6 4; R u b in & B a d d eley , 19 8 9 ; T h o m p so n , S k o w ro n sk i, & L e e, 1 9 88 ). O u r h y p oth esis is th at th e d e g re e of fo rw a rd te le sc o pin g is asso c ia ted w ith th e fo rm o f th e q ue stion tha t re sp o n de n ts a re ask e d. W e m o re fu lly de v elo p th is h yp o th esis la te r, afte r co n sid ering th e ev id en c e of fo rw ard tele sc op in g an d the ro le o f re co n struc tio n in an sw e rin g qu e stio n s ab o u t th e tim e of e ve n ts. T h e co m m o n e v id e nc e o f fo rw a rd te le sco p in g c on sists o f d iffe ren c es in th e nu m b er o f re po rts be tw e e n g ro up s . F or e xa m p le, L o ftus a nd M arb u rge r (19 8 3 ) ask e d p e op le w h e the r th ey h ad b ee n th e v ictim s o f crim e s d urin g a six -m o n th re fe ren c e p e rio d . O n e g ro u p w as g iv en a n ex p lic it la nd m ark o n w h ic h th e re fe ren c e p erio d b eg a n (th e e rup tion o f M t. S t. H e len s o r N e w Y e ars D ay ) w h ile th e o th er w as n ot (i.e. ``d u rin g th e la st six m on ths’ ’ ). T h e g rou p w itho ut th e la n d m a rk rep o rte d m o re in sta nc e s o f crim e v ictim isa tio n . L o ftus an d M a rb u rg e r co n clu d ed tha t w ith o u t th e p rese n ce of a lan d m ark , e ve n ts th at ac tu a lly oc c urre d be fo re th e re fe re nc e p e rio d w ere fo rw ar d te le sc op e d in to it. N e ter a n d W a k sb erg (1 9 64 ) c o m p a red p e o ple ’ s rep o rts o f m a jo r ho u se ho ld re p a irs an d pu rch a ses u sin g eithe r un b o un d e d o r b o u nd e d re fere nc e p erio d s. T h e sam e re sp on d en ts w ere in terv ie w e d in se p ara te w av e s o f d ata c o lle ctio n tha t oc c urre d six m o n ths ap a rt. In th e u n bo u n d ed c on d itio n , th ey w ere sim p ly to ld to in d ic a te e ve n ts sin c e th eir last in terv ie w . In th e b o un d e d co n dition , th e in terv iew e r first re a d th e ite m s rep o rte d at th e la st in te rv iew , a nd th en ask e d fo r ne w ite m s. N e te r a nd W a k sb erg fo u n d th at m o re ite m s w ere re p orte d in th e un b o u n de d in te rv ie w s. T h ey co n clu d ed th a t in th e u n bo u n de d in terv iew s, pre v io u sly re p orte d item s w e re b e in g fo rw a rd te le sc o pe d in to th e c u rren t re fe ren c e p erio d . F in ally , B ac h m a n a n d O ’ M alley (1 9 81 ) ask e d h ig h sc h oo l stu d e nts a bo u t th e ir dru g u se o v er re fere n ce p e rio d s o f d iffe ren t len g th s (e.g . th e pa st y ea r, th e pa st m o n th ). B ac h m a n a n d O ’ M a lle y fo u nd tha t sh o rte r refe re n c e p erio ds pro d uc e d relativ ely h ig h e r usa g e ra tes. A lth o ug h the y co n clu d ed th at lo ng e r re fe ren c e pe riod s le d to u n d ere stim atio n o f d rug u sag e , th e y a lso no te d tha t fo rw ar d te lesc o pin g o f e arlie r e v en ts o f dru g u sag e c o uld b e in flatin g th e estim a tes in th e sh o rter p erio ds. T h e in te rp re ta tio n o f e v ide n c e o f fo rw ard tele sc o p in g is p ro b le m a tic, ho w e v er. O bse rv e d d iffe re n ce s in th e nu m b er of re p orts a c ro ss d iffe ren t
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refe ren c e p erio ds m ay or m a y n o t in dic ate th e p rese n ce o f fo rw a rd te le sco p in g. A s S ud m an an d B ra d b urn (1 97 3 ) no te d, it is p o ssible th a t p e op le a re fo rge ttin g ea rlie r e v en ts a n d b e in g m or e ac cu ra te in th e sh o rte r an d m ore re ce n t re fere n ce p eriod s (th e e x pla na tio n fav o ure d b y B a ch m a n & O ’ M alley , 1 9 81 ). In o rde r to d eterm ine th e p re sen c e of fo rw ard te le sc op in g , v erific a tio n o f p eo p le ’ s re p orts is n ec essa ry . F o rtun a tely , so m e rec e n t stu d ie s h a ve b e en a ble to e x am in e fo rw a rd telesc o p in g u sin g ev e n ts w h o se d ate s ca n b e v erifie d . In a ve rific atio n stu d y , H u tten lo ch er et al. (1 9 8 8) p ro v ide d e v id e nc e fo r g rea te r ac c u ra c y in sh o rte r re fe re n c e p e rio d s. H u tte n lo c h e r et a l. a sk e d u niv ersity stu de n ts to list film s th e y h a d a tten d e d a t th e ir u niv e rsity ’ s film so cietie s. T w o re fe re n ce p e rio d s w e re use d , the e n tire a ca d em ic ye a r a nd th e m o st re ce n t ac ad e m ic q u arter. R e sults sh o w e d th at stu d en ts a sk ed o n ly ab o ut th e m o st re c en t qu a rte r rep o rte d a tte n din g m o re film s d urin g th at q ua rte r th a n d id stud e nts a sk ed a bo u t th e en tire y ea r. W ith ou t v erifica tio n d a ta, th is fin d ing c ou ld b e in terp rete d as ev id en c e of fo rw ar d te le sc o pin g in th e sh orte r re fe ren c e pe rio d. H ow e v e r, H u tte n lo c he r e t al. fo u n d w h en c o m p a rin g rep o rts to ac tu al film d ate s tha t the d iffe re n ce in the n u m b e r o f rep o rts b etw ee n th e g ro u p s w a s n o t d ue to telesc o p in g . T h at is, fo rw a rd te lesc o p in g w as p res en t in b o th g rou p s, b u t p artic ipa n ts in th e sh o rte r re fe ren c e p erio d c o nd itio n re p orte d m o re ev e n ts tha t ac tua lly o c cu rre d d u rin g th a t re fere n ce p erio d . H u tte nlo c he r et al. co n clu d ed tha t the sh orte r refe ren c e p e rio d led p e o ple to c o nd u c t a m ore tho ro u g h sea rch o f m e m o ry for the targ et e ve n ts. In a sim ilar v e in , R u b in an d B ad d e le y (1 9 89 ) co lle c ted re po rts of pe o ple ’ s atten d a n ce at a se m in a r series a n d co m pa red re po rts to th e a tte n da n c e re co rd s for the sem in a rs. A g a in forw a rd tele sco p ing w a s ob se rv ed . A no th er ty p e o f v erifia b le e v ide n ce o f fo rw ard te le sco pin g w as co lle c ted b y T ho m pso n et a l. (19 8 8 ) w h o ask e d p eo p le to ke e p d ia ries. A t a la ter tim e w h e n p eo p le rep o rte d the d a te s o f the ev e nts fro m m em ory , th e d ia rie s w ere c o nsu lted to a sc e rta in th e ac tua l d ates of th ose e ve n ts. T h o m p so n et a l. also o bse rv ed fo rw a rd te lesc o pin g o f e v en t da tes. H utten lo ch e r e t al. (19 8 8 ) p rov id ed a n e x pla na tio n o f fo rw ard te le sc o pin g b ase d on tw o fac to rs. T h e first w a s inc re asin g in ac c u rac y of in form ation in m e m o ry w ith e la pse d tim e . B a dd e ley , L ew is, a n d N im m o -Sm ith (1 97 8 ) ha d p re v io u sly d em o nstrate d tha t the a c cu rac y o f p eo p le’ s m e m o ry (ab so lu te e rro r) for w h e n e v en ts o cc u rre d d ec rea se d w ith ela pse d tim e . T h e sec o nd w a s refe ren c e p e rio d b o un d ar ie s. In the H u tte n lo c he r e t a l. m o d e l, info rm ation a bo u t o ld e r e v en ts is less p rec ise th an in fo rm a tio n ab o u t m o re re c en t e v en ts. T h us, the re is a gre a te r p rob a b ility th a t o ld e r e ve n ts w ill b e te lesc o p ed . B e c au se e ve n ts tha t o c cu rred o u tsid e th e e arly bo u n d ary of th e refe ren c e p e rio d (th o se th at ca n b e forw a rd te le sc op e d in to it) a re o ld e r th an ev e n ts insid e th e e a rly bo u n da ry (th o se tha t c an b e ba ck w a rd telesc o p ed ou t o f it) th e re su lt is n e t fo rw a rd telesc o p in g o v er an y refe re nc e p eriod . N et fo rw ard te le sc op in g w ill inc rea se o ve r p e rio d s in w h ich th e m o st re ce n t b o un d ar y is the pre sen t (b e ca u se th e re ca n
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ne v er b e b ac kw ard te le sco pin g o f fu ture e v en ts). R u b in an d B a d de ley (1 9 8 9 ) pro v id ed a sim ila r e xp la na tio n . In b oth th e H u tte n lo c he r e t a l. a n d R u bin a n d B a d d ele y m od e ls, n et fo rw ar d telesc o p ing is a lw ay s g o in g to o cc u r, de sp ite th e fa c t t h a t s o m e d e g r e e o f b a c k w a rd te l e sc o p i n g a l so o c c u rs . B a c k w a r d te lesc o p in g is a w e ak e r effe ct tha n forw a rd te le sc o pin g b ec au se of th e g re a te r im pre c isio n in d a tin g o ld er e v en ts th a n m o re re ce n t e v en ts, w h ich lea d s to a gre a te r te nd e n cy to fo rw ar d tele sco p e o lde r e v en ts in to the re fere n ce pe riod tha n to b a ck w ard telesc o p e m ore rec e nt e ve n ts o u tsid e of th e re fe re nc e pe rio d . W h y is fo rw ard te lesc o pin g a pro b lem ? O n a p ra ctica l le ve l, th e p re sen c e o f fo rw ar d te le sco pin g c a lls into q ue stio n the a cc u ra c y of the su rve y d ata o n w hic h m a n y d e cisio ns a b o ut re sou rc e a llo c a tio ns a re m a d e. P ub lic p erc e ptio ns a n d go v er nm en ta l p o lic y m ay b e b ase d on inflate d d a ta be c au se of forw a rd te le sc o p in g e rro rs . O n a th e o r eti ca l le v e l o f m o re c o n c e rn to m e m o ry re se a rc h ers, th e p re sen c e o f forw a rd tele sc op in g e rrors ra ise s q ue stio n s a bo u t th e rep re sen tatio n o f te m p o ra l in form atio n in m em or y an d the p roc e sse s tha t pe o ple u se to re c on stru ct te m p o ra l in form atio n. O u r sta rtin g p rem ise is th at w h e n a ske d a n y tem p ora l q u estio n ab o u t au to bio g ra p h ica l m em o ry, pe o p le e ng a ge in re c on stru ction to form an an sw e r (F ried m a n, 1 9 9 3; T h o m p so n , S k ow ro nsk i, L arse n , & B e tz , 1 9 9 6). H o w ev e r, th e re p re sen tatio n of the te m p o ral in fo rm atio n o n w h ich re co n stru c tion is ba se d is hie ra rc h ic ally org a nise d (H u tte n lo c he r et a l., 1 98 8 ). W e m a inta in tha t th e sp e c i fic q u e s tio n a sk e d w ill b e a n im p o rt a n t fa c t o r in t h e a m o u n t o f re c o nstru ctio n in w h ich resp o nd en ts e n ga g e, be c au se p e op le on ly re co n struc t to a lev e l o f d eta il su ffic ien t to form a n ap p rop ria te resp o n se . T h us, w h en p e o ple are a sk ed : ``H a v e y ou be e n tre ate d b y a m e d ic al do c to r in th e la st six m o n th s? ’ ’ th e y re trie ve ch a rac te ristic s of th e ev e nt an d m a tc h th em ag ain st ch a ra c te ristic s of th e re fere nc e p e rio d . F o r e xa m p le , p eo p le m ig h t c o nsid er h o w co ld it w as o n th e ir la st d o c to r visit, o r w h a t the y w e re w ea ring , o r w h e th e r it w as d urin g a n ac ad e m ic se m e ster. If th e se ch a rac teristic s m atc h th e re fe ren c e pe riod (c o ld ov e r th e la st six m o n ths, be in g in sch o o l, etc .), th e y c an resp o n d ``Y es’ ’ an d sto p re c o nstru ctin g at th at po in t. T he re is n o n ee d to rec o nstru ct a n e x ac t c alen d a r da te . In c on tra st, a q u estio n suc h a s: ``O n w ha t d ate w e re yo u la st tre a te d b y a m e d ic a l d oc tor? ’ ’ c o m p e ls resp o n d en ts to th ink ca refu lly ab o u t w h en th e ta rge t ev e nt h a p pe n e d an d re co n stru c t an e x ac t d ate . W h en fa ce d w ith th e d ate qu e stio n , resp o n d en ts m a y b e m o re lik e ly to e x ec u te a m ore ex ten siv e re trie va l attem p t to estim a te th e d a te. T h u s, m o re co n tex tu al info rm a tio n a ssoc iate d w ith re m e m b ering the la st e v en t is lik e ly to co m e to m in d . W e be lie v e th at w h e n pe o ple spe n d le ss effo rt in re c o nstru ctin g th e tem p ora l in fo rm ation ab o ut ev e nts, th e y w ill b e m o re in a cc u rate in th e ir re p or ts an d , th u s, th ey w ill ha v e a g re a te r te n d en c y to fo rw ard te lesc o p e tho se re p or ts, c o nsiste nt w ith th e b o u nd a ry m od e l of te le sco p in g first a d va n c ed by H u tte n lo c h er e t a l. O n e stu dy b y L o ftu s, K lin g e r, S m ith , a n d F ie d le r (1 99 0 ), sou g h t to red u c e th e am o un t o f o bse rv ed fo rw ard tele sco p ing in p eo p le’ s re p orts. In a n e xte nsio n o f
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N ete r a n d W a k sb erg ’ s (1 9 6 4) p roc e d ure , th ey fou n d th at forw a rd tele sc op in g o f rep o rts o f h ea lth p roc e du re s ov e r a tw o-m o nth refe ren c e p e rio d w ere re d u ce d w he n p artic ip a nts w e re first a sk ed a b ou t th e sam e he a lth p ro ce d ure s o v er a six m o n th refe ren ce pe riod . W e su g g es t th a t th e ir pro c e du re m a y h a ve e n co u ra ge d p eo p le w h o rec e iv e d th e six-m o nth p erio d first to e n g ag e in a m ore e xte nsiv e retrie v al o f info rm ation in th e tw o -m o n th pe rio d in co m pa riso n to tho se w h o o nly a nsw ere d for th e tw o -m o n th p eriod . A n sw erin g ab o u t th e six -m o nth p e rio d first m ay ha v e ind ica ted to re sp o nd e nts th e im p o rta n ce of p re cise ly estim a tin g for th e tw o -m o n th pe rio d , le a din g to a m ore c om p le te re c on stru ction to d eterm ine w h e th e r a n e v en t h a d ind e e d o cc u rre d w ithin th e p ast tw o m o n ths. It sh ou ld b e re m em b ere d, h o w e v e r, th at fo rw ard te le sc op in g is still q uite lik e ly to o cc u r, as p rior inv e stig a to rs h av e de m o n stra te d, ev e n w h e n p eo p le e n ga g e in ex ten siv e rec o nstru c tio n, b u t o ur hy p o th e sis is th at it w ill o c cu r les s o fte n tha n w he n p eo p le’ s resp o n ses c an b e b a sed o n le ss e xte nsiv e re trie va l. T o te st o ur h y po th esis w e c o nd u c ted tw o e xp e rim en ts. T h e m ajo r differe nc e b etw ee n the m is th at E x pe rim en t 1 a ske d ab o u t an e ve n t (a v isit to a m ed ica l d oc tor) fo r w hic h th e tru e da tes c o uld n o t b e v erifie d . H o w ev e r, E xp e rim en t 2 ask e d a b o ut e ve n ts (stu de n ts’ p a rtic ip a tio n in rese a rc h stu d ies) for w h ich the tru e d ates co u ld be v e rified . O th e r diffe ren ce s b e tw e e n th e ex p er im en ts a re d iscu sse d later.
EXPERIMENT 1 In E xp e rim en t 1, w e e x plo red forw a rd tele sco p ing u sin g a m e th o d o lo g y co m m o n to su rve y re sea rc h. P a rtic ip a nts w e re ask e d e ith er a ``Y e s/N o’ ’ o r ex ac t d ate q u estio n a bo u t b e in g tre ate d b y a m ed ic al d o c tor. T w o d iffe re n t re fere n ce p eriod s, tw o m o n ths an d fo u r m o n th s w ere u sed . O u r p re d ic tion w a s th at le ss telesc o p in g w ou ld b e o b serv e d w h e n p a rtic ip a n ts re co n stru c te d a n e x ac t d a te a s a re sp on se .
Method P a rtic ipa n ts. P a rtic ip a nts w e re 20 5 u n de rg rad u ate stu de n ts at th e U n iv ersity o f A lb erta , w ho w ere e n rolle d in In trod u c to ry P sy c h olo g y d u rin g th e sp rin g 19 9 5 sem este r. P ro c e d u re . D u rin g c la ss o n 3 1 M a rc h , 1 9 9 5 , e a c h p a rtic ip a n t w a s ran d o m ly g ive n a fo ld ed a n d stap led she e t o f p ap e r. E a ch she et co n ta in ed on e o f th re e qu e stio n s a bo u t visits to m e d ic al d o c to rs. T h e 2-M o n th g ro up ’ s qu e stio n w as: ``In the last T W O m o nth s h a ve y o u b ee n tre ate d o r ex a m in ed b y a p hy sicia n ?’ ’ T h e 4 -M o n th g ro u p’ s q ue stio n w a s th e sam e bu t w ith ``F O U R m o n th s’ ’ rep lac in g ``T W O m o n th s’ ’ . T h e D ate g ro u p ’ s qu e stio n w a s: ``O n w ha t d ate w e re y ou last ex a m in ed by a p h ysic ian . P lea se b e a s ex a ct as p o ssib le , b u t estim a te th e d a y (or th e m o n th) if n ec essa ry ’ ’ . B ec a us e pa rtic ipa n ts w ere te ste d
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o n th e las t d a y of M a rc h , w e w e re ab le to u se p a rtia l re sp o n ses a n d ap p ro xim a tion s, su ch a s ``F e b ru a ry’ ’ or ``Ja n ua ry 1 5 o r 1 6’ ’ . T o ke e p th e to ta l nu m b er o f re fere n ce a n d d ate g ro u p s sim ilar th e re w e re tw ic e as m a n y sh ee ts w ith th e da te q u estio n.
Results T h e p erc en tag e s o f ``Y e s’ ’ re sp on se s in th e 2 - an d 4 -M o nth g ro u p s a n d th e pe rc en tag e s o f d a te s th at fe ll w ith in ea c h refe ren c e p eriod are p res en ted in T a ble 1. A ch i-sq ua re a na ly sis rev e ale d th at th e 2 -M o nth g ro up g av e m o re ``Y e s’ ’ re sp o n ses (57 % ) th an the D a te g rou p ga v e rep o rts th at fe ll w ith in th e tw o -m o n th 2 re fe ren c e p erio d (3 5 % ), c (1, N = 15 5 ) = 7 .4 5 , P < .0 1 . H ow e v er, th e d iffe ren c e 2 be tw e e n th e 4-M o n th (6 2 % ) a n d D a te (49 % ) w as n o t sig n ific an t, c (1 , N = 15 0 ) = 2 .2 6 . It is in tere stin g to n ote tha t th e pe rce n tag e o f p eo p le w h o a n sw e re d ``Y e s’ ’ did n o t c ha n g e w ith th e ch a ng e in th e le n g th of th e re fe re n ce p erio d . T h at is, 57 % a nsw e red ``Y es’ ’ in th e tw o -m o nth ref ere nc e pe riod a nd 6 2 % a n sw ere d ``Y e s’ ’ in th e fou r-m o n th re fere n ce pe riod , a n in c re a se o f o nly 5% d esp ite a 50 % inc rea se in th e re fere n ce p erio d. In co n tra st, in th e D ate g ro u p th e pe rc en tag e of p a rtic ip a nts w h o re p orte d b e in g tre a te d rose from 3 5% d urin g th e la st tw o m o n ths to 49 % du rin g th e las t fo u r m o nth s, a n in cre as e o f 14 % .
Discussion O u r h y p oth esis, th a t th e d a te q u estio n w o u ld re su lt in le ss forw a rd te le sc op in g th a n the y e s/n o qu e stio n , w as sup p o rte d in th e tw o -m o n th refe ren c e p eriod . T h e re are sev e ral p o ssible re aso n s w h y the sa m e p a tter n o f re su lts w as n o t ob se rv ed in th e fo u r-m o n th refe re n ce pe rio d . O ne re aso n m ay be d u e to the u se of stud e nts a s p artic ip a nts. T he en d of th e fo u r-m o n th pe riod co in cid ed w ith th e en d o f th e p rio r se m e ster, th us p ro v idin g a firm bo u n d ary th at m a y h av e a tte n u a te d th e 4 -M on th g ro u p ’ s ten d e n c y to fo rw a rd te le sc o p e . A n o th e r po ssib ility, c o nsisten t w ith ou r h y p o th e sis, is tha t th e D a te g ro u p ’ s m o re
TABLE 1 Experiment 1 R e fe r e n c e P e r io d C o n d itio n 2 - M o n th , n = 5 4
T w o m o n th s 5 7%
4 - M o n th , n = 5 0 D a te , n = 1 0 1
F o u r m o nths
6 2% 3 5%
4 9%
P e rc e n t a g e o f p a rti ci p a n ts in d ic a tin g th e y h a d b ee n e x a m in e d b y a m e d i ca l d o c to r w i th in t h e re s p e c ti v e re fe re n c e p e ri o d .
FORWARD TELESCOPING AND QUESTION FORMAT
461
ex ten siv e retriev a l led to th e ir rem em b erin g m ore e v en ts in th e lo ng e r re fere n ce p eriod . F in ally, a th ird p o ssibility , also c o nsiste nt w ith o ur hy p o th e sis, is th a t th e tw o - an d fou r-m o n th re fere nc e p e riod s w ere n o t su fficien tly d iffe re nt to a llo w p artic ipa n ts to d istin g u ish th e fa m ilia rity o r a va ila b ility o f th e ev e n t. T h at is, p artic ipa n ts m a y h av e sim p ly ju d g e d w h e th e r a m e d ic a l tre atm en t w as re c en t an d thu s w ith in ra n g e (w h eth er th e ra n ge w as tw o - o r fou r-m on th s), o r n o t re c en t an d thu s o u t o f ran g e. Inte rp re tatio n s of E x p e rim en t 1 su ffe r fro m all o f th e p rob le m s inh e ren t in d ata tha t c an n o t b e v erifie d th at w e re d isc u sse d ea rlie r. F o r ex am p le, the re c ou ld h av e b ee n d iffe ren ce s in d o cto r v isits b e tw e en th e g ro u p s o f w h ic h w e h ad n o k no w led g e . B ec au se w e d id n o t h a ve ac c e ss to pa rtic ipa n ts’ a c tu a l m ed ica l rec o rd s, n o a tte m p t c o uld b e m ad e to c ollec t d ire c t e vid en c e o f d iffe ren tial telesc o p in g b etw ee n the refe ren c e p e rio d s. E x pe rim en t 2 w as d e sig n ed to circ um v en t th is lim ita tio n .
EXPERIMENT 2 In E x p erim e n t 2 , th e e ve n ts w e u sed w e re stu d en ts’ pa rtic ip ation in rese arc h stud ies du rin g an a c ad em ic sem este r. P a rtic ip a n ts re p o rte d eithe r th e nu m b er o f tim es th e y ha d p a rtic ip a te d in rese arc h stu die s (the y c ou ld h av e p a rtic ip a te d o nc e , tw ic e, o r n o t a t all) o r th e ex a ct da tes o n w hic h th ey ha d p a rtic ip a ted . T h e d ata w ere c o llec te d th re e m o n th s after th e se m e ster b e g an an d a tw o-m on th refe ren c e pe rio d w a s u sed so th at fo rw a rd telesc o p in g e rrors w o u ld b e p ossib le. A s w e w e re ab le to a sce rtain w he n stu de n ts p artic ipa te d fro m atte n d an c e she e ts, w e w e re a b le to v erify p a rtic ip a n t’ s re po rts.
Method P a rtic ipa n ts. P a rtic ip a nts w e re 1 43 un d erg ra du a te stu d en ts a t L e h m a n C olleg e , T h e C ity U n iv e rsity o f N e w Y o rk , w h o w e re e nro lled in tw o sec tio n s o f G en e ra l P sy c ho lo g y d urin g th e a u tu m n 1 99 5 se m e ste r. T his co u rse co n tain s a rese arc h req u irem en t a n d on e o f the w a y s tha t stud e n ts ca n (an d m o st o ften d o ) fulfil th is re q uire m e nt is to p artic ip ate in tw o re sea rch stud ie s. P ro ce d u re . R e se a rc h stu d ie s w e r e a v a ilab le fo r stu d en t p a rtici pa tio n thro u gh o u t th e sem este r, fro m 1 1 S ep te m b er to 12 D ec em b er, o n v ario us d ate s an d tim e s, a n d stud e n ts se lec te d th e stu d ie s, d ate s, an d tim e s th e y p re fe rred . A t the e nd of th e ir c lasse s, o n 6 D e ce m be r, e x ac tly th re e ca le n da r m on th s a fte r cla sses b eg an , stu d en ts w e re g iv en o n e o f tw o q ue stio n s a b ou t th eir p a rtic ip a tio n in re sea rch stu die s. T he form at w a s th e sam e a s in E xp e rim en t 1; e ac h p artic ipa n t w a s g iv e n a fo ld ed sh ee t o n w hic h o n e o f th e tw o p o ssible qu e stio n s w as p rin te d. T h e R e fe ren c e P e riod g ro u p w e re sim p ly ask ed to in d ic ate th e n um b er o f stud ies in w h ic h the y p a rtic ip a te d d u ring th e last tw o m o nth s. T h e D ate g ro u p w as ask e d for th e ex a ct d ate (s) o n w h ich th e y pa rtic ipa ted . B e c au se
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w e w ere in te rested in forw a rd te le sco p in g, w e a rra n ge d tha t m a ny stu die s w e re av a ila b le fo r pa rtic ip ation in S e p te m b e r (i.e. e arlie r th an th e re fe re n ce p e rio d ) an d tha t th e tw o in stru c tors re m in d ed stu d en ts ab o u t th is req u ire m e n t thro u gh o u t th e ea rly p a rt o f th e se m e ster.
Results F irst, w e co m pa red the p e rce n tag e o f ``Y es’ ’ re sp o nse s by th e R efe ren c e P e rio d gro u p to th e pe rce n tag e o f d ate s re po rte d b y th e D a te g rou p th a t fe ll into th e tw o -m on th refe ren c e p eriod . T he se d a ta a re pre sen te d in T a ble 2 . A c hi-sq ua re 2 an aly sis fo u n d n o s ig n ifica n t d iffe re n c e b e tw e e n th e g ro u p s, c (2 , N = 14 3 ) = 2 .6 . H o w e v e r, e v id e nc e o f fo rw a rd tele sco p ing w a s o b se rv e d w ith in th e R e fere n ce P e rio d g ro u p . S p ec ific ally , a lth o ug h th e D ate g ro u p w as e v en ly div id e d b etw ee n tho se w ho rep o rte d o n e (4 0% ) a nd th ose w h o re po rte d tw o (4 % ) d a te s, in th e R e fe ren c e Pe riod gro u p m o re p articip a nts (5 3 % ) re p or te d 2 co m ple tin g tw o stu d ie s th an rep o rte d co m ple tin g o n ly o n e (2 9% ), c (2 , N = 83 ) = 1 6 .3 , P < .0 0 5 . T h ese d a ta a lso a llo w ed u s to e x am in e d iffere nc e s in th e a cc u rac y o f rep o rts be tw e e n th e tw o gro u ps b y m a tch ing p artic ip an ts’ re po rts to a tte nd a n c e sh e ets. F o r th e R e fe re n ce P erio d g ro u p, c orre ct resp o n se s w o u ld be ``Y e s’ ’ resp o n ses a n d re c o rde d p artic ipa tion w ithin the tw o -m o nth re fe re nc e p eriod . S im ilarly, fo r th e D a te c on d itio n, th e rep o rte d d a te sim ply h a d to be c o rre c t a s to w he th er it w a s w ith in o r ou tsid e the tw o-m on th refe ren c e p e rio d . T h ese d ata a re pre sen ted in T a ble 3 . T h e R e fere n ce Pe rio d g rou p w as sig nifica n tly m o re like ly to b e in c orre c t, 2 eithe r w h e n re p ortin g tha t th ey h ad p articip ate d tw ic e , c (1 , N = 68 ) = 4 .4 , P < .0 5 , 2 or on c e, c (1, N = 4 8) = 4.2 , P < .0 5 . S p e cifica lly , 8 2% o f the p a rtic ip a te s w h o said the y h ad p artic ip a te d in tw o stud ies du rin g th e tw o -m o n th re fe re n ce p erio d w e re in co rrec t. In c on trast o n ly 5 8 % o f tho se w h o g a ve tw o d a tes w ith in the tw o m o n th re fere n ce p e rio d w e re in c orre ct. S im ila rly 58 % o f tho se w h o said th ey h a d pa rtic ip ated o nc e d u rin g th e tw o -m o nth re fe re n ce pe rio d w ere in co rre ct, w hile on ly 2 9 % of th o se w h o ga v e o ne d a te w ithin th e tw o -m o n th refe ren c e p eriod w e re in c o rre c t. T h e m o st co m m o n erro r w as fo rw ard tele sco p ing ; tha t is, stu de n ts said
TABLE 2 Experiment 2 R e s p o n se C o n d it io n
T w ic e
O nce
N o ne
R e fe re n ce P e ri o d , n = 8 3
5 3%
2 9%
18%
D a te , n = 6 0
4 0%
4 0%
20%
P e rc e n ta g e o f p a rt ic ip a n ts in d i ca t in g th ey h a d p a rtic i p a te d in re se a rc h s tu d i e s w it h i n th e tw o -m o n th r ef ere n c e p e rio d .
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463
TABLE 3 Experiment 2: Accuracy by Condition and Responses
R e fer en c e P e rio d Ð s a id T W O
C o r re c t
In c o r r e c t
8 (1 8 % )
3 6 (8 2 % )
D a t eÐ 2 d a te s i n p e rio d
1 0 (4 2 % )
1 4 (5 8 % )
R e fer en c e P e rio d Ð s a id O N E
1 0 (4 2 % )
1 4 (5 8 % )
D a t eÐ 2 d a te s : 1 i n , 1 o u t o r 1 d a t e i n
1 7 (7 1 % )
7 (2 9 % )
the y h ad pa rtic ip a ted w ithin th e tw o -m o n th pe riod (in O c to b e r or N o v e m b e r), w he n ac tua lly th ey h ad p artic ip ate d e a rlie r (in Se p te m b er).
Discussion Inc rea se d forw a rd te le sc op in g b a se d o n a c o m p a riso n o f re p or te d an d ac tua l info rm a tio n b y th e g rou p a ske d th e ea sie r q ue stio n w as o b serv e d. Ind irec t ev id en c e o f fo rw a rd te lesc o p in g w as o b se rve d w ith in th e R e fere n ce P erio d g ro u p (i.e . m ore ``T W O ’ ’ re sp on se s), bu t n ot b e tw e en th e gro u p s (i.e. th ere w ere n ot m o re ``Y e s’ ’ re sp o n ses from the R efe ren ce P e rio d g ro u p th a n da tes w ithin the re fe re n ce p erio d by th e D ate g ro u p ). W e th ink th is lac k o f a b etw ee n -gro u p s d iffe re n ce is d u e to the fa ct th at the re w as a h igh le ve l o f pa rtic ip a tio n in th e ev e n t in q u e stio n . U n lik e th e e ve n t u tilise d in E xp e rim en t 1 , v isitin g a d o cto r fo r a rou tine c h ec k -up , p articip ation in a re se arc h stud y w a s, in a se n se, a c ou rse req u ire m en t, so ou r rate of p o sitive re spo n ses fro m b o th g ro up s w as h ig h.
GENERAL DISCUSSION O ur sta rtin g pre m ise , tha t p eo p le u se rec on stru ction w h e n a n sw erin g qu e stio n s ab o u t th e tim e o f a u to b io gra ph ica l e ve n ts, is a w id e ly a cc e p te d o ne . In d ee d , th is p re m ise is a cc ep ted in reg a rd to the d atin g o f p ub lic ev e nt s as w e ll (e .g . B ro w n, 1 9 9 0 ; B u rt & K e m p , 1 9 9 1 ). F u rth e rm o re , th e p re m i se th at m e m o ry is h ie rarc h ic a lly o rga n ise d also is w ell ac c ep ted (e .g . B a rsa lou , 1 98 8 ; B e lli, th is issu e; B ro w n , 1 9 9 0; C on w a y , 1 9 9 6; H u tte n loc h er e t a l., 1 9 8 8 ). F ina lly , B ad d ele y e t a l. (1 9 7 8), H u tte n lo c h er et al. (1 9 88 ), a nd R ub in a n d B ad d ele y (19 8 9 ) d em o nstra ted th at fo rw ard te le sc op in g is rela te d to the in cre asin g ina cc u ra cy of m em o ry w ith e la p sed tim e . O ur sp e cific h y p oth e sis, b ase d o n th e se th ree starting p re m ises, w a s th a t th e q ue stio n fo rm at w ou ld in flu e n ce th e am o un t of forw a rd te le sc op in g o b serv e d in p eo p le ’ s rep o rts. W e b e lie ve tha t th e m ore diffic u lt q ue stion (``R e po rt th e ex ac t d ate’ ’ ) le d re spo n d en ts to e n ga g e in a m o re tho ro u gh re c o nstru ctiv e pro ce ss, resu ltin g in a b e tte r lo c ation of th e e v en ts in tim e a n d g rea te r rela tiv e ac c ura cy . T h e sim ple r q u estion s (``W ere yo u tre ate d? ’ ’ ``H o w m an y tim e s did yo u
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pa rtic ip ate? ’ ’ ) led re spo n d en ts to sim p ly in fer th e e ve n ts’ re c en cy , ra th e r tha n attem p t to pre cise ly lo ca te e ac h in tim e. T h e fo cu s o f th e p re sen t stu d y w a s on a uto b io g rap h ica l e v en ts w ith re lative ly lo w fre q u en c ie s of o cc u rre n c e. A sk ing th e m o re difficu lt q u estio n a bo u t h igh e rfre q u en c y e v en ts (e .g . ``R ep o rt th e e x ac t da tes d u rin g th e la st tw o m o nth s tha t yo u : p u rc h a sed g a so lin e for yo u r c ar; ate be e f fo r d in n e r; ex er cised ’ ’ ) m ig h t pro d uc e to o h ig h a d em a nd o n p e op le an d lea d to less ac cu ra te re su lts. In d e ed , M e a n s an d L o ftus (1 9 9 1) sho w e d tha t p e op le’ s stra teg ies for an sw erin g qu e stio n s c h an g e d de p en d ing on th e freq u en c y o f the e v en ts. H ow e v er, the ir stu d y also d em o nstrate d th a t th e m a nn e r in w h ich p eo p le a re q u e stio ne d co u ld in c re a se a cc u rac y e v en w ith h ig h-freq u e n cy ev e nts. F ina lly, fo rw ard te le sc op in g also is ob se rve d w h e n p e op le a re ask e d to rep o rt tem p or al in form a tio n a bo u t disc rete p u b lic e ve n ts a n d w e b e lie ve it lik ely th a t resu lts sim ilar to tho se o f th e pre se nt stud y w o uld b e o b serv e d in th is do m ain as w e ll. A s the m o d e ls o f H u tten loc h er e t a l. (1 9 8 8) a nd R ub in an d B a dd e ley (1 9 8 9 ) in d ic a te, so m e fo rw a rd te le sc o pin g is a lm o st a lw a ys go in g to o c cu r in p e o ple ’ s re p o rts, a n d w ill co n tin u e to b e a pro b lem fo r surv ey rese a rch e rs w h en e v er the y ca n no t v e rify re sp o nd e n ts’ rep o rts. M o reo v er , th ere a re situ a tio n s fo r w h ich th e da tin g q ue stio n m ig ht n ot n e ce ssa rily le a d to m o re a c cu rate re sp on se s. F o r ex a m p le, a skin g p eo p le to d a te fre qu e n tly o cc u rrin g m un d a ne e v en ts m igh t lea d to un d e r-re po rting be c au se th e relev a n t ev e n t in sta nc e s a re ra p id ly fo rg otten . N o n e the less, o u r da ta su gg e st th at ask in g resp o n d en ts to pro v id e a m o re p re cise re sp o n se reg a rdin g th e tim ing o f e v en ts w ill e n co u rag e a m o re th o ro u g h re c o nstru ctio n w h ic h w ill re d u ce forw a rd te le sco p in g. T h u s, b y m ak in g p e o ple w o rk a little h ard e r in d e term in ing w h e n ev en ts h a d oc c urre d , su rv ey re sea rch e rs w ill lik ely ga in m o re a cc u ra te d a ta .
REFERENCES B a c h m a n , J .G ., & O ’ M a lle y , P .M . (1 9 8 1 ). W h e n fo u r m o n th s eq u al a y e ar: In c o n s i st e n c ie s in s t u d e n t r ep o rts o f d ru g u se P u b li c O p in io n Q u a r te r ly , 4 5 , 5 3 6 ±5 4 8 . B a d d e le y , A .D ., L e w is , V ., & N im m o -S m i th , I. (1 9 7 8 ). W h e n d i d y o u l a st . . .? In M .M . G ru n e b e rg , P .E . M o rris , & R .N . S y k e s (E d s.), P r a c tic a l a s p e c ts o f m e m o r y . N e w Y o r k : A c a d em i c P re ss . B a rs al o u , L .W . ( 1 9 8 8 ). T h e c o n t en t a n d o rg a n i za t io n o f a u t o b io g r ap h ic a l m e m o ries . In U . N e is s e r & E . W in o g ra d (E d s .), R e m e m b e r in g r e c o n s id er e d . N e w Y o rk : C am b rid g e U n iv er si ty P r es s . B e lli, R .F . (t h i s i s su e ). T h e s tr u c tu re o f a u to b i o g rap h i c a l m e m o ry an d th e e v e n t h is to ry ca l e n d a r: P o t e n t ia l im p ro v e m e n ts in th e q u a li ty o f re tro s p e c tiv e re p o rts in s u rv e y s . M e m o r y , 6 . B ro w n , N .R . (1 9 9 0 ). O rg a n i z at io n o f p u b l ic e v e n ts in lo n g -t e rm m e m o r y . J o u r n a l o f E x p er i m e n ta l P s y ch o lo g y : G en e r a l, 1 1 9 , 2 9 7 ±3 1 4 . B u rt , C .D .B ., & K e m p , S . (1 9 9 1 ). R e tro s p e c tiv e d u ra ti o n es t im a tio n o f p u b li c e v e n t s. M e m o r y & C o g n i tio n , 1 9 , 2 5 2 ±2 6 2 . C o h e n , G ., & J a v a , R . (1 9 9 5 ). M e m o ry fo r m e d ic a l h is to ry : A c c u rac y o f re c a ll . A p p li e d C o g n i tiv e P s y ch o lo g y , 9 , 2 7 3 ±2 8 8 . C o n w a y , M .A . (1 9 9 6 ) . A u to b io g ra p h i c al k n o w le d g e a n d a u to b i o g rap h i c a l m e m o ri e s. In D .C . R u b in ( E d .), R e m em b er in g o u r p a s t: S tu d i e s i n a u to b io g r a p h i c a l m e m o r y (p p .6 7 ±9 3 ). N e w Y o rk : C am b rid g e U n iv e rsi ty P re ss .
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F ri ed m a n , W .J . (1 9 9 3 ). M e m o ry fo r th e t im e o f p a s t e v en ts . P sy c h o l o g ic a l B u ll et in , 1 1 3 , 4 4 ±6 6 . H u t te n l o c h e r, J ., H e d g e s , L .V ., & P ro h a s k a , V . (1 9 8 8 ) . H ie ra rc h ica l o r g a n iz a tio n i n o rd er ed d o m a in s: E s tim a ti n g th e d a te s o f e v e n t s . P s y c h o lo g i c a l R e v ie w , 9 5 , 4 7 1 ±4 8 4 . L o ftu s , E .F ., K li n g e r, M .R ., S m i th , K .D ., & F ie d le r, J . (1 9 9 0 ). A ta le o f t w o q u e s ti o n s : B e n e fit s o f a sk in g m o re th an o n e q u e s tio n . P u b l ic O p i n i o n Q u a rt e rl y, 5 4 , 3 3 0 ±3 4 5 . L o ftu s , E .F ., & M a rb u rg e r, W . (1 9 8 3 ). S in ce t h e e ru p t io n o f M t . S t . H e le n s, h a s a n y o n e b e at e n y o u u p ? Im p ro v in g t h e a c cu ra cy o f re tro sp e c tiv e re p o rts w i th la n d m a rk e v e n ts . M e m o ry & C o g n itio n , 1 1 , 1 1 4 ±1 2 0 . M e a n s, B ., & L o ft u s , E .F . ( 1 9 9 1 ). W h e n p e rs o n a l h i s to ry re p e a ts itse lf : D e c o m p o si n g m e m o rie s fo r re c u rri n g e v e n t s . A p p l ie d C o g n it iv e P s y c h o lo g y , 5 , 2 9 7 ±3 1 8 . N e te r, J ., & W a k s b e rg , J . ( 1 9 6 4 ). A st u d y o f r es p o n s e err o rs in e x p e n d i tu re s d a ta fro m h o u s e h o l d in te rv ie w s . J o u r n a l o f A m e ri c a n S ta ti s tic a l A s s o c i a t io n , 5 9 , 1 8 ±5 5 . R u b i n , D .C ., & B a d d e le y , A .D . (1 9 8 9 ). T el e sc o p in g i s n o t t im e c o m p re s s io n : A m o d e l o f th e d a t in g o f a u to b i o g rap h ic a l e v e n ts . M e m o r y & C o g n i tio n , 1 7 , 6 5 3 ±6 6 1 . S u d m a n , S ., & B ra d b u rn , N .M . (1 9 7 3 ). E ffe c ts o f t im e a n d m e m o ry fa c to rs o n re s p o n se i n su rv ey s . J o u r n a l o f A m e r ic a n S ta t is ti c a l A s s o c ia t io n , 6 3 , 8 0 5 ±8 1 5 . T h o m p s o n , C .P ., S k o w ro n s k i , J .J ., L ar se n , S .F ., & B e tz , A .L . (1 9 9 6 ) . A u t o b io g r a p h i c a l m e m o r y : R e m e m b er in g w h a t a n d re m e m b e r in g w h e n . H i llsd a le : L aw re n c e E rlb au m A ss o c ia te s In c . T h o m p s o n , C .P ., S k o w ro n s k i, J .J ., & L ee , D .J . (1 9 8 8 ). T e l e sc o p i n g in d a tin g n a tu ra lly o c c u rrin g e v e n ts . M em o r y & C o g n it io n , 1 6 , 4 6 1 ±4 6 8 .
M E M O R Y , 1 9 9 8 , 6 (4 ), 4 6 7 ±4 7 4
H o w M e m o r y R e se a r c h c a n B e n e fit fr o m C A S M D a n ie l B . W rig h t U n ive rsity o f B ristol, U K
E liz a b e th F . L o ftu s U niv ersity o f W a sh ing to n, U SA
R es ea r ch o n c og n itiv e a s pe c ts o f s ur ve y m e th o do lo g y ( C A S M ) h a s h elpe d su rv e y r es e ar c he rs to un d er st a n d the pr o ce ss e s in v o lv ed in r es po n din g to s ur v ey q u e s tio n s . T h e s u r v e y s itu a tio n , a n d th e m e th o d s e m p lo y e d b y C A S M re se a rc h er s, c a n also b e us ed to b e n ef it c og n itiv e p s yc h o lo gy . I n p a r ticu lar , th e si ze an d c o ve r ag e o f sa m p le su rv e y s, a n d th e tec h niq ue s u se d to e xa m ine h o w re sp o nd e n ts u n de r st an d su rv e y q u es tion s , c ou ld b e o f m u c h v a lu e fo r e x p lo ring so m e a s p e c ts o f m e m o ry re se a rc h . W e giv e so m e e xa m p le s w h er e this is be ing do n e a n d u rg e o th e r s to fo llo w su it.
INTRODUCTION A pp ly ing p sy ch o lo gic al th e ories an d m eth o ds to un d e rsta n d the re sp on se p ro c esse s in surv e y s h a s b ee n on e of th e suc c esse s o f th e in cre as in g a pp lic a tio n o f m e m o ry rese arc h to re a l w o rld pro b le m s. T h e p a pe rs in this sp e cial issu e are testam en t to th is. T h e ``c o g n itive a sp ec ts o f su rv ey m eth o do lo g y’ ’ (C A S M ) p ro g ra m m e s h a ve jo ine d c og n itiv e a n d s oc ia l p sy c h o log ists w ith su rv e y rese arc h e rs an d so c ial sta tisticia ns . B o th o f u s h a ve h a d th e p le asu re o f ta kin g p art in th is c o lla bo ra tio n . H e re , h o w ev e r, w e tak e a m o re e g oistic sta n ce a s m e m o ry re sea rch e rs. It is c le ar, a nd th is h a s b e en by de sign , th at m uc h C A S M rese arc h h as tak e n p la ce to b e ne fit surv e y rese a rch ers (fo r e x am p le, Jab in e, S tra f, T an u r, & T o u ran g e au , 1 9 8 4; M o ss & G o ld ste in , 1 9 7 9; T a n ur, 1 9 9 2). B u t this is rea lly a tw o -w a y stre et. W e sho u ld also b e a sk in g w h at b en e fits c o gn itiv e rese arc h , a nd in p a rtic ula r m em or y re sea rc h, c an a ch iev e fro m th is co lla b ora tio n . W e thin k th e be n efits fa ll in to tw o c ate go rie s. F irst, p sy ch o lo gy the o ries c an b e ex p lo re d in a d iffere nt se ttin g. S o m e rese arc h e rs h a ve g o ne to g re at len g ths to d esc rib e ho w v a lid ating lab o ra to ry fin d ing s in o the r settin g s is v ita l to assu re the g e ne ra lity of th e re sults o f lab o ra to ry rese arc h . W e a g re e w ith th is, bu t in a d d ition fee l tha t th e su rv e y is a
R e q u e s ts fo r r ep rin ts s h o u l d b e se n t t o D a n i e l B . W rig h t, D e p a rtm e n t o f E x p e rim e n ta l P s y c h o lo g y , 8 W o o d la n d R o ad , U n iv e rsi ty o f B ri st o l , B ris t o l B S 8 1 T N , U K . E m a i l: D .B .W ri g h t@ B r is to l.a c.u k
Ó
1 9 9 8 P s y ch o lo g y P re s s L td
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va lu ab le situ atio n , in its o w n rig ht, fo r ex p lo rin g so m e m em o ry p he n om e n a. It is th e sim ilaritie s b etw e en th e surv e y in terv ie w an d m an y lab o rato ry situ atio n s tha t allow hy p o th e se s to be e x am ine d in th is re la tive ly co n tro lle d e n viro nm e n t. T h e re a re o f co u rse differe n ce s b e tw e e n th e tw o . F o r som e h yp o the se s a la b o rato ry is b etter su ite d, b u t fo r o the rs a surv e y is b e tte r (a nd for so m e , ne ith e r is a pp ro p ria te). W e disc uss w h e re m e m o ry rese a rch e rs m ig h t w a n t to tak e ad v an ta ge o f th e d iffere nc e s an d use su rve y s for th eir rese arc h . T h e se co n d be n efit is th a t m em o ry re sea rc he rs ca n u se so m e o f th e te c h niq ue s th at are o fte n em p lo y ed in C A S M rese arc h . M u ch C A S M re se arc h ha s fo cu se d on h o w p eo p le in te rp ret q u estion s a n d th e stra te g ies p e o ple use to a n sw e r q u e s tio n s. S o m e o f th is C A S M e n e rg y c a n b e d ire c te d to th e m e th o d o lo g ica l p rob lem s th a t w e cu rren tly fac e in m e m o ry re sea rc h. F o r ex a m p le, m e m o ry rese a rch e rs no w re g ula rly a sk sub je cts a bo u t m e ta-c o gn itio n s: ``re m e m b e r’ ’ v e rsus ``k n ow ’ ’ , h o w clea r th e ir m e m o ry is, w h eth e r th ey h av e life pe rio d s o f am n esia , e tc . Q u estio ns o f this typ e c an b e d iffic u lt fo r sub jec ts to an sw e r. W e de sc rib e so m e p ro m isin g lin es o f rese a rc h ex p lo ring th e re spo n se pro c esse s inv o lve d .
EXPLORING MEMORY IN SURVEYS Im a g in e th e fo llow in g: A st ra n g er r in g s yo u r d o o rb e ll, ide n tifies h e rs elf a s w o rk in g f or a su rv e y c o m pa n y , a n d a sk s if y o u w ou ld m in d an s w e r in g so m e qu e st io n s. Y o u a gr e e a n d w elc om e the in te rv iew e r in to y o u r h o m e . T h e in te r view e r r ea d s th e q u es tio ns f ro m a c lip bo a rd a n d r ec o rd s yo u r r e sp o n s es .
N o w im a gin e th is situ atio n: A st ra n g e r w a lk s u p to y o u in a un iv e rs ity c af e te ria , s ay s tha t sh e is do in g p s yc h olo g y re se a rc h , an d as k s if y o u w o uld m in d ta king pa r t in a s tu d y. Y o u ag re e a n d go to a p sy c ho log y la b o ra tor y. S h e a s k s y o u a se r ie s o f q ue st io n s, a n d th en p r es en ts y o u w ith a f ew si m p le tas k s to d o, w h ile sh e r ec o rd s yo u r r e sp on se s .
T h e first situ atio n re fe rs to a n e x p erie nc e a re spo n d en t m igh t h a ve in a fac e-to fa c e surv e y , w h ile th e se co n d re fe rs to a n e x pe rie n c e a sub jec t in a lab o rato ry stu d y m ig h t h av e . A lth ou g h the situa tio n s see m differe n t, a t th e c ore th ey are sim ila r. In ea ch th e v olu n tee r pro v id e s in fo rm a tio n in resp o n se to th e ta sk de m an d s. T h is sim ilarity is p art o f th e rea so n w h y w e fee l th at th e su rve y m ig h t pro fita b ly b e use d m o re fre q ue n tly fo r e x plo ring co g nitive hy p o th e ses (see also Job e & M ing a y, 1 9 9 1; Job e , T o u ra n g ea u , & S m ith , 19 9 3 ; L o ftus, F ie nb e rg, & T a nu r, 19 8 5 ). H o w e ve r, th ere are so m e differe n ce s b etw ee n su rv e y s an d th e ty p ica l la b o rato ry stu d y. O n e is th e sa m p le siz e u su ally use d in ea c h. P sy ch o lo g ists
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o fte n stru gg le to re c ru it en o ug h su bje cts for the ir stu d ie s, a n d still, a s sev era l p ap e rs h av e sh ow n (fo r e xa m p le , C o h en , 1 96 2 , an d se v era l sin c e), o fte n fa il to ac h ie v e satisfa c to ry p ow e r. U sing a su rv e y co m pa n y , w h o h a v e m ec h an ism s in p la ce fo r rec ru itin g la rg e nu m b ers o f re spo n d en ts, se em s an ob v io us so lutio n. T h e m o st c om m o n arg u m e n t a ga in st th is is the pric e. T ru e, if y o u w a n t a sm all sam p le , say 1 00 o r le ss, it is n o t g o in g to b e c ost effe ctive . H o w ev er, fo r la rg e r sam p le s it w ill o fte n b e m o re co st effec tiv e th a n h av in g a p sy ch o lo gy rese arc h assistan t d o it. M u c h p syc h olo g ica l re sea rc h re q uire s la rg e sa m p les, p artic u larly w h e n eith er th e e stim ate d effec t siz e of th e c ritic al c om pa rison is sm all or if it is im p orta nt to e stim a te th e siz e o f th e e ffec t fa irly p re cise ly . C o n sid e r W rig h t, G ask e ll, an d O ’ M u irch e artaig h (19 9 7 ). T he y w ere in tere sted in B ro w n , R ips, an d S he v ell’ s (19 8 5 , p .1 4 1) a cc e ssib ility p rinc ip le w hic h sta te s th a t ``th e m ore y ou k n ow , th e m o re rec e n t th e e v en t w ill se e m .’ ’ W rig h t e t a l. tested th is b y ask in g p e op le to sa y w h e n M arg a ret T h a tc h er resig ne d as P rim e M in iste r o f the U n ite d K in g do m . If B ro w n e t al. w ere rig h t, p e op le un d ere stim a tin g th e ela pse d tim e (i.e . fo rw a rd te le sc o pin g th e da te) sh ou ld h a ve cle are r m em orie s o f th e ev e n t th an th o se ov e restim atin g th e ela p se d tim e (i.e . b a ck w a rd telesc o p in g ). B e ca us e the re are sev er al rea so ns w h y so m e on e c ou ld e ith e r u nd e r or o v er e stim ate th e ela pse d tim e, th e effe ct c o uld b e sm all an d the refo re ov e r 2 00 0 p eo p le w e re qu e stio n ed in o rde r to ac h ie v e sa tisfa c to ry p ow e r. T h e resu lts d id n o t su pp o rt the ac ce ssib ility p rin cip le; pe o ple w h o u nd e restim a te d th e e lap se d tim e d id no t h av e c le are r m e m o rie s. B ec a use o f the sa m p le size , W rig h t e t al. w ere a b le to a rgu e th at if a n y effec t w a s p re se nt, it w as m in u te. T h e re is n o th in g p articu la rly spe c ia l a bo u t th e su rv ey p ro c ess th at en a ble s larg e sa m p le s to be c o lle c te d . M o x ey an d S a n ford (1 9 9 3) , fo r e x am p le , w ere inte re ste d in th e m e an in gs o f va rio u s v e rba l q u an tifie rs. B e ca u se de fin in g so m e v erb al q u an tifie rs c o uld a lter h o w p e op le de fin e sub se q u en t o n e s, M ox e y an d S an fo rd h ad to use a b etw ee n -su b je cts d e sig n . T o a tta in a p o w e r sim ilar to stud ies usin g w ithin -su bje ct d esig n s, the y q u estio n e d a p pro x im a te ly 1 50 0 p eo p le , usin g stu d e n ts fro m th eir in tro d u cto ry p sy c ho lo gy c o urs e. In g e n era l, w he n it is n ec es sary to u se b etw ee n -su bje cts d e sign s, larg e n um b ers o f su b je cts are o fte n n ee de d . A ltho u g h it is p ossib le to qu e stio n tho u sa nd s o f p eo p le in lab o ra to ry se ttin g s, a s M o xe y a nd S a n fo rd d id , it is o fte n m o re co st-effe ctiv e to o bta in a la rge sa m p le fro m a su rv ey c o m p an y . T h e se c on d d iffe ren c e b e tw e en su rve y s an d lab o rato ry stu d ie s is h o w rep rese n tative th e sa m p le is o f p o p ula tio n o f in tere st. F o r m a ny surv e y s a rep rese n tative sam ple is n e ce ssar y be c au se th e aim of th e su rve y is to e stim ate v alu es fo r th e en tire p o p ula tio n. M an y lab o rato ry stu d ie s p u rpo se fully use a s h om o g en e ou s a sa m p le as p ossib le, so as to m in im ise w ith in- co n ditio n v arian c e. H ow e v e r, w h en a n atu ra lly o c cu rrin g va ria b le , lik e a p e rson ’ s a g e, is of in tere st, the n a m o re d ive rse sam ple is ne ce ssa ry . T h is is som etim es d o ne b y try ing to
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m a tc h old er m e m b e rs o f a su bje ct pa n el w ith a stu d e nt sam p le , b ut this ca n 1 cre a te difficu ltie s. C o n side r S ch u m an a n d S c o tt’ s (1 9 89 ) stud y o f g en e ration a l differe n ce s in w h a t p eo p le th in k a re im po rtan t e v en ts. T h e y h yp o the sise d th a t ev e n ts o cc ur rin g du rin g a pe rso n ’ s a d o le sce n c e o r ea rly a d ulth oo d w ou ld b e the m o st im p orta n t. U sin g a tele ph o n e su rv e y , ab o ut 1 4 0 0 p eo p le w e re ask e d w h at th e m o st im po rta nt ev e nts w e re du ring th e p re v io us 5 0 y ea rs. R esu lts sh o w ed th a t p e o ple w h o w e re y o u ng a d ults d u rin g th e V ietn am W a r, W orld W a r II, o r th e D e p re ssio n w ere m ore lik e ly to rep o rt th e se ev en ts th an p e op le from o th e r co h or ts, su p p orting S c hu m an n & S co tt’ s h yp o the sis. F o r th is rese a rch , it w a s ne c essa ry to h av e co m pa ra ble sam p le s o f p e op le fro m e a ch o f sev e ra l ag e ba n ds so th a t th es e d iffe re n c e s co u ld n o t b e a ttrib u te d to d iffe re n t s a m p lin g pro c ed u res. S urv e y c o m p a n ie s are in p lac e to pro v ide th is se rv ice . T h e third d iffe ren c e is the m ate ria ls th at c an be u se d in a su rv e y c om p are d w ith a la bo ra tory . T he n o rm a l o p era tio n of th e su rv e y in terv ie w m ay b e to o re stric tive fo r so m e re sea rch . F o r ex a m p le, it is o fte n n e ce ssa ry to sh o w p e o ple vid e o c lip s o f to -b e-re m e m b e red ite m s, or to re c o rd p rec ise re sp on se tim es (o r ph y sio lo g ic a l m ea su res). A ltho u g h som e in stru m en ts co u ld b e b ro ug h t in to re sp o n de n ts’ h o m e s, this co u ld b e d iffic u lt. T he typ ica l fa ce -to-fa ce surv e y in terv iew u se s o nly o ral q ue stion s w ith a few sh o w ca rd s, w h ich g en e rally co st ex tra . T ele p ho n e in te rv iew s are e v en m o re re stric tiv e . T h ere h as be e n a n in c re a se in co m p ute r assiste d in terv ie w in g (C A I), inc lud in g so m e fa scin a tin g w a y s o f d isp la y in g d a ta w ith n ew m u ltim e d ia tec h n o lo g y . T h is allo w s m o re fle xib ility , a lth o u gh a t pre sen t m o st su rv ey co m p an ies do n o t ta ke fu ll a d va n ta g e of th e p o ssib ilities. A n oth er a spe ct w o rth c on side rin g is w he th er th e surv e y co m pa n y ca n im p le m e n t ex p erim en tal d e sig n s, w h at su rv e y re sea rch e rs o fte n ca ll ``sp lit-b allo t’ ’ de sign s, an d m o re sp e cific a lly if ra nd o m a llo c a tio n c an b e do n e w ith in in te rvie w w o rk lo a d s.
USING THE CASM APPROACH IN MEMORY RESEARCH T h e re ha s be e n a n inc rea se d u rin g th e p a st de c ad e in m em o ry rese arc h e rs a skin g sub je cts ab o u t th eir m em o rie s. T h is in v o lve s sub jec ts n o t ju st d e scrib in g th e co n ten ts o f th eir m e m o rie s, b u t d esc rib ing ``m e ta-c o gn itio n s’ ’ a bo u t th e co n ten ts. F o r ex am p le , su b je c ts m ay b e a sk ed w h eth er th ey ``re m em be r’ ’ som e th in g, o r just ``k n o w ’ ’ so m eth in g . T h is cla ssific ation , o rig ina lly fro m T u lv in g (1 9 85 ), h as sp a rk ed g re at d e ba te am o n g rese arc h ers ab o ut w h a t the se sta tes o f a w are ne ss are (see , fo r e xa m p le , D o n a ldso n , 1 99 6 ). T h is d e ba te h as, in 1
H a v in g a ra n d o m s a m p l e o f y o u n g e r a n d o ld e r a d u l ts a ll o w s t h e re s e a rc h e r to c o m p a re y o u n g
p e o p l e w i th o ld e r p e o p le , in g e n e ra l. O fte n m at c h i n g i s u s e fu l s o th at s o m e as p e c t, li k e g e n e ra l h e a lt h , c a n b e c o n tro lle d fo r. C o m p a ris o n s a re th e n b et w ee n y o u n g an d o ld e r p e o p le , c o n d it io n a l o n g e n e ra l h e a lt h , a n d n o t in g en e ra l.
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a se n se, b ee n p asse d on to su b je cts w h o h a ve to m ak e the se ju d g em e nts. T h ere are ju stifie d co n ce rn s ab o ut h o w su b jec ts u se the se re sp o nse s. In m u ch C A S M re sea rch , effo rt is m a d e to e nsu re tha t resp o n d en ts in te rp ret the m ea n in g o f th e p h ra se s in th e sa m e w ay a s e ac h o th e r (re liab ility ) a n d as th e rese arc h e rs in ten d (v alid ity ). S ev e ral su rv ey o rg an isation s, b oth in go v ern m en t an d in a ca d em ic rese a rc h in stitu tion s, h a ve set u p c og n itiv e la bo ra to rie s to h elp u nd e rsta n d ho w p eo p le a nsw e r su rv e y qu e stio n s (se e W illis, R o ysto n , & B e rcin i, 1 99 1 , fo r ex a m p le ). O fte n pe o ple are sim p ly ask ed w h a t d iffere nt p h rase s m e a n, o r are ask e d to ``th in k a lou d ’ ’ w h ile an sw e rin g , o r ju st a fte r an sw e rin g , a q ue stio n (se e E ric sso n & S im o n , 19 8 4 , fo r th e u se o f in tro sp ec tio n an d retro sp ec tio n in co g nitiv e p syc h o log y ). T h is te c hn iq ue is u se d , for ex a m p le , w ith su rv e y s on th e freq u en c y o f p a st b e ha v io urs to se e if re spo n d en ts are try in g to rec all e ac h relev a n t e p iso d e o r a re try in g to estim a te the fre qu e nc y o f th e b eh a vio ur in so m e oth er w a y . F or ``re m e m be r’ ’ /``k n ow ’ ’ ju d ge m en ts, do pe o p le in te rp ret th es e in a sim ila r m a n ne r to e ac h o th er a n d d o es th is m ap on to th e de fin ition s of th e se te rm s in th e litera tu re ? G ard in er, R am po n i a n d R ic ha rd so n -K la ve h n (in p re ss) c o nd u c te d a stud y to se e h o w pe o ple w ere u sin g th es e p h ra se s. A fte r a ``rem e m b er’ ’ / ``kn ow ’ ’ stud y o n m e m ory fo r w o rd s (G a rd in e r, R ich a rd so n -K la v e h n & R am po n i, 19 9 7 ), su b jec ts w ere a sk ed to ju stify so m e o f th eir re sp on se s. T h is is v e ry sim ila r to so m e of th e re tro sp ec tiv e ``th in k-a lo ud ’ ’ te c h niq u e u se d in co gn itiv e lab o ra torie s. S u b jec ts’ rep o rts sh ow ed th at th ey d id u se th e se resp o n ses fo r q u alita tive ly differe n t ty p es of m em o ry , th us sup p o rtin g T u lv in g ’ s cla ssific ation . A no the r te ch n iq u e tha t is u sed in C A S M rese arc h to asse ss h o w w o rds are u sed , is to a sk p eo p le to rate a giv e n sc e na rio . F o r ex a m p le, S ch w a rz an d co llea g u es (1 9 8 8; se e a lso G a sk ell, O ’ M u irc h ea rta ig h, & W rig ht, 19 9 4 ) a ske d p eo p le h o w o ften the y g ot ``rea lly a nn o y ed ’ ’ . T he y u sed o ne o f tw o sets o f resp o n se a lte rn a tiv e s. T h e first set co n ce n tra ted at lo w fre qu e n cie s, su gg e stin g tha t b e in g ``re ally a n no y e d’ ’ w as a ra re e ve n t. A se co n d set c o n ce n tra ted at hig h freq u en c ies, su gg e stin g th at the ev en ts w o uld b e m u c h m o re freq u e nt, an d the refo re , o n a ve rag e , le ss a n no y in g. T he ir resp o n de n ts w ere th en a sk ed to ra te a sce n ario fo r th e a m o u nt o f a nn o y a nc e . T ho se in th e low -freq u e nc y c on d itio n g av e lo w er ra tin g s fo r th e sc e na rio , im p lyin g th a t th eir d efin itio n o f a ``re a lly an n o yin g ’ ’ ev e nt w as m or e sev e re th an th ose in th e h igh -freq u e nc y co n d ition . H en rich s an d C o n w ay (1 99 7 ) w e re in ve stiga tin g h ow ``rem em b er’ ’ an d ``kn o w ’ ’ re spo n se p attern s v aried ov e r the co u rse o f le a rn in g n e w v o ca b u la ry. S u bje cts w e re tau g h t d e fin itio n s fo r n o n -w o rd s o v er se ve ral trails, a nd te ste d afte r e ac h tria l. O v e r tim e , th e y b eg a n to ``k no w ’ ’ m o re d efinitio n s an d ``re m e m be r’ ’ le ss, su g ge sting th at the se de fin itio n s w ere b ec o m in g p a rt o f sem an tic m e m o ry . H e nric h s an d C o n w a y w ere a w are o f the c on tro ve rsy a bo u t h ow su b je cts u se ``rem e m b er’ ’ an d ``k n o w ’ ’ resp on se s. A fte r th e te st, su b je cts w ere p re sen ted w ith so m e m e m o ry d e scrip tio n s, an d a sk ed w he the r th es e w ere
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``re m e m b e r’ ’ o r ``k n o w ’ ’ re sp o n ses. H en rich s an d C on w a y the n re-a n aly se d th e da ta e xc lud in g th e p eo p le w h o ga v e re spo n ses in co n siste n t w ith th e a uth o rs’ be lie fs, a n d fou n d th a t th e tra nsitio n fro m ``rem e m b er’ ’ to ``k n o w ’ ’ w a s ev e n m o re p ro no u n c ed . M u c h of th e C A S M rese a rch in vo lv es a sk ing p e op le tw o d iffe ren t typ e s o f qu e stio n s, o r th e sa m e q u e stio n in tw o d iffere n t co n tex ts, an d se ein g w he th er th e re sp o n se p a tte rns d iffer fo r the tw o gro u ps . L oftu s, K ling e r, S m ith, a nd F ie dle r (1 9 9 0) , for e xa m p le, w e re in tere ste d in th e be st w a y to a sk pe o ple ab o u t the ir m e d ic a l tre atm en t o v er a se t tim e pe rio d . T h e y ask e d p eo p le if, for ex am p le, th e y h ad ha d a b loo d p re ssure re a din g. M e d ic al re c o rds ex iste d to c he c k ac cu ra c y. S om e resp o n de n ts w e re ask e d if th ey h a d ha d o ne in the last six m o n th s an d th en ask e d if th e y h a d ha d o n e in th e la st tw o m o nth s. O th e r re sp o n de n ts w e re a sk ed the se qu e stio n s bu t in the o p po site o rd er. T h e e stim ates fo r th e q u estio n ask e d sec o nd , re g a rd less of w h ic h c on d itio n th e resp o n de n ts w e re in , w ere m o re a c cu ra te c o m p are d w ith the sa m e q ue stio n in th e o th e r co n ditio n. L o ftus e t a l. arg u e d th at th is w as b e ca u se, w h e n ask ed m ultiple qu e stio n s in w h ich tw o tim e -fra m es a re m en tion e d, resp o n d en ts rea lise tha t th e in terv iew e r m e an s tha t sp e cific tim e . S up p o se y o u h a d y o ur b loo d p re ssu re tak e n th re e m o n th s a go , a nd are a sk ed if y ou ha v e h ad it ta k en in th e la st tw o m o n th s. In na tu ral lan g u ag e , pe o ple o fte n a ssum e this w o u ld m e a n in a b o ut th e last tw o m o n th s. B ec au se y o u a re a h e lp fu l resp o n de n t, a n d y ou h a v e in fo rm atio n tha t yo u thin k th e in te rv ie w e r w o u ld w a n t to k n o w , yo u w o u ld te ll th e in terv ie w e r ab o ut th is ex p erie nc e . H o w e v e r, if y o u are first ask e d w ith a six -m o n th re fere nc e pe rio d an d th e n a ske d w ith the tw o -m o n th refe ren c e p erio d, y o u kn o w th at th e qu e stio n refe rs to th e sp ec ific tim e p erio d. T h e c urre n t are a o f m o st fe rv e n t d eb a te in m e m o ry re sea rc h is w h e th e r pe o ple ``re co v e r’ ’ a cc u ra te m em o rie s of the ir c h ild h oo d th a t th ey p rev iou sly d id no t re m e m b e r (see , fo r e x am ple , L in dsa y & R e a d , 1 9 94 ; L o ftu s, 19 9 3 ). It is cla im ed tha t p rior to ``re co v e rin g ’ ’ th ese m e m o ries, m an y o f th e se p eo p le h av e ex te nd e d g a ps in th eir m e m o ries o f c h ild h oo d . T h ese ga p s are a lle g e d to b e w h e n th e pe rso n w a s be in g se v ere ly trau m atise d (u sua lly c h ild sex u a l a bu se ). If a m e n ta l h e alth w o rk e r su sp e cts so m eo n e h a s b ee n se v ere ly trau m a tise d , the y ofte n ask the p erso n if th ere a re larg e pa rts of (u su ally) h e r ch ild h o o d th at sh e do e s n o t rem em b e r. W ha t is th e reliab ility o f th is q ue stio n , p artic u la rly co n sid ering tha t it m ig ht ha v e ju st fo llo w ed q ue stion s a bo u t c h ild h oo d life ev e nts (p o o r m e m o ry fo r w h ic h m ig h t h av e raise d th e m en ta l h e alth w o rk e r’ s susp ic io n to a sk th e q u estio n )? W in kie lm an , S c h w arz , a n d B e lli (in p ress; se e a lso B e lli e t a l., in pre ss) ask e d un iv ersity stu d en ts if th ey h ad a m n e sia c ga p s for the ir ch ild h o o d a fter a skin g th e m to re ca ll m e m o rie s o f ch ild h o o d. In o ne ex p er im en t (E x p . 1), su b jec ts eithe r re ca lle d fo ur or tw e lve m em o rie s. A lth o ug h the pe o p le in the tw e lv e m e m o ries c o nd ition re ca lled a pp ro x im ate ly th re e tim e s a s m a n y m e m o ries, the y w e re m o re lik ely to sa y tha t th e y h a d am n esiac g a ps. In fa c t, o ve r h alf o f th e
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p eo p le in th is co n d itio n said th ey h a d th e se g ap s. W in kie lm a n et a l. e x pla in e d this so m e w ha t pa rad o x ica l re su lt, th at p eo p le w h o re ca ll m ore m e m o ries c o m e to b elie v e th ey h a v e m o re m em ory g ap s, as b ein g d u e to the diffic u lty of th e task . A lth o u gh m ost o f th eir sub je cts co u ld re ca ll tw elv e e v en ts, the y fo u n d it d ifficu lt. T h is led th e m to th ink th at the y h a d po o r m e m o ries. T h e p e op le rec alling o nly fo u r e ve n ts fo un d th e task m u c h sim p ler. T h e un relia bility of th e resp o n ses to this qu e stio n ra ises do u b t fo r its u se a s a d ia g n o stic c rite rio n fo r eith er ch ild h o o d se xu a l a bu se o r a n y fo rm o f disso cia tiv e d isord e r. T h is is p art ic u lar ly im p o rta n t co n sid e rin g th a t m a n y m e n ta l h e a lth p ro fe ssio n a ls rou tine ly a sk clien ts to tell th e m a b ou t th e ir c h ild ho o d .
FINAL REMARK S u rv e y d a ta u n d erlie m u c h scie n tific rese arc h a nd in fo rm ev e ryth in g from b usin ess le ad e rs m a rk e tin g co n su m e r go o d s to g o ve rn m e n t m in isters d ec idin g o n fo re ign p o lic y. T h e re lia b ility o f the se da ta, o n w h ich im p orta nt d ec isio n s are m a d e, is pa ram o u nt. U nd e rsta n d in g h o w p e o ple re spo n d in th ese surv e y s is o bv io u sly va lu ab le. W e ha v e c h ose n to en d this sp ec ia l issu e by stressin g h o w this c o lla b o ra tiv e res ea rc h c a n a lso b en e fit c o g n itiv e p syc h o lo g ists. O u r u n d er sta n d in g of c o g n itiv e p ro c es ses h a s b e en a d v a nc e d g rea tly b y th e co n trib u tio n s o f la b o ra tory -b ase d re se arc h . H o w e ve r, w e b e lie ve th e re is o fte n m o re to b e a cc o m plishe d by b e in g o pe n to su rve y m e th od o log y a nd a lter na tiv e m e tho d s o f g a th e rin g d ata .
REFERENCES B e ll i, R .F ., W in k i e lm an , P ., R e a d , J .D ., S c h w a rz , N ., & L y n n , S .J. (in p re ss ). R e c a llin g m o re c h i ld h o o d e v en ts le a d s to j u d g m e n ts o f p o o r er m e m o ry : Im p lic a tio n s fo r t h e re c o v e red /fa ls e m e m o ry d e b a t e . P s y c h o n o m ic B u lle t in & R e v ie w . B ro w n , N .R ., R ip s , L .J., & S h e v e ll , S .K . (1 9 8 5 ). S u b je c ti v e d a te s o f n a tu ra l e v e n ts in v e ry lo n g te rm m e m o ry . C o g n it iv e P sy c h o l o g y , 1 7 , 1 3 9 ±1 7 7 . C o h e n , J . (1 9 6 2 ). T h e s ta ti s tic a l p o w er o f a b n o r m a l -s o ci a l res e a rc h : A re v ie w . J o u r n a l o f A b n o rm a l a n d S o ci a l P s y c h o lo g y , 6 5 , 1 4 5 ±1 6 3 . D o n a ld s o n , W . (1 9 9 6 ) . T h e ro l e o f d e c is io n p ro c e s s es in re m e m b e rin g a n d k n o w in g . M e m o ry & C o g n itio n , 2 4 , 5 2 3 ±5 3 3 . E ri c ss o n , K .A ., & S im o n , H .A . (1 9 8 4 ). P ro to c o l a n a l y si s: V e r b a l r e p o r ts a s d a ta . C am b rid g e, M A : M IT P re s s. G a rd i n e r, J .M ., R am p o n i , C ., & R ic h a rd s o n - K l a v e h n , A . (in p re ss ). E x p er ie n c es o f re m e m b erin g , k n o w i n g , a n d g u e s s in g . C o n sc i o u s n e ss a n d C o g n it io n . G a rd in e r , J .M ., R ic h a r d s o n -K l a v e h n , A ., &
R a m p o n i , C . (1 9 9 7 ) . O n
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e x p e rie n ce s a n d ``d i re c t a c ce s s to m em o ry s y s te m s ’ ’ . P s y c h o lo g ic a l S c ie n c e , 8 , 3 9 1 ±3 9 4 . G a sk e ll , G .D ., O ’ M u i rch ea rt a ig h , C .A ., &
W rig h t , D .B . (1 9 9 4 ). S u rv e y q u e s tio n s a b o u t th e
fre q u e n c y o f v a g u e ly d e fin e d e v e n ts : T h e e ffe c ts o f re sp o n s e a lt er n a ti v e s . P u b l ic O p in io n Q u a r te r ly, 5 8 , 2 4 1 ±2 5 4 . H e n ri ch s , C ., & C o n w a y , M .A . (1 9 9 7 ). C h an g e s in m e m o ry aw a re n e ss d u rin g a n d a ft er re p ea t ed le a rn i n g . P a p e r p re s e n t e d a t t h e B P S C o g n itiv e S e c ti o n A n n u a l C o n fe re n c e, B ris to l, U K .
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Ja b in e , T .B ., S tra f, M .L ., T a n u r, J .M ., & T o u ra n g e a u , R . (E d s .) ( 1 9 8 4 ). C o g n itive a s p e c ts o f s u rv e y m e t h o d o lo g y: B u i ld in g a b r i d g e b e t w e en d is c ip lin es . W a s h in g to n D C : N a tio n a l A c a d e m ic P re s s . Jo b e , J .B ., & M i n g a y , D .J. (1 9 9 1 ). C o g n it io n a n d s u rv e y m ea s u rem e n t: H i st o ry a n d o v e rv ie w . A p p li e d C o g n it iv e P s y c h o lo g y , 5 , 1 7 5 ±1 9 2 . Jo b e , J .B ., T o u ran g e a u , R ., &
S m i th , A .F . (1 9 9 3 ) . C o n t rib u ti o n s o f s u rv e y re s e ar ch to th e
u n d e rs ta n d i n g o f m e m o ry . A p p li ed C o g n itiv e P s yc h o lo g y, 7 , 5 6 7 ±5 8 4 . L in d sa y , D .S ., & R ea d , J.D . (1 9 9 4 ). P s y c h o t h e rap y a n d m e m o rie s o f ch il d h o o d s e x u a l ab u se : A c o g n i tiv e p e rs p e c ti v e . A p p lie d C o g n itiv e P sy c h o l o g y , 8 , 2 8 1 ±3 3 8 . L o ftu s, E .F . (1 9 9 3 ). T h e re a li ty o f re p re s se d m e m o rie s . A m e r ic a n P s y c h o lo g is t, 4 8 , 5 1 8 ±5 3 7 . L o ftu s, E .F ., F ie n b e rg , S .E ., & T an u r, J .M . (1 9 8 5 ) . C o g n it iv e p s y c h o l o g y m e e ts th e n a t io n a l s u r v e y . A m e ri c a n P s y c h o lo g i st, 4 0 , 1 7 5 ±1 8 0 . L o ftu s, E .F ., K li n g e r, M .R ., S m it h , K .D ., & F ie d le r, J . (1 9 9 0 ). A ta le o f t w o q u e s ti o n s : B e n e fit s o f a s k in g m o re th an o n e q u e s ti o n . P u b l ic O p in io n Q u a r t er l y, 5 4 , 3 3 0 ±3 4 5 . M o ss , L ., & G o l d s te i n , H . (E d s .) (1 9 7 9 ). T h e r e ca ll m e th o d i n so c ia l su r v e ys . L o n d o n : In s ti tu te o f E d u c a ti o n . M o x e y , L .M ., & S a n f o rd , A .J. (1 9 9 3 ). P rio r e x p e c ta t io n a n d t h e in te rp re ta tio n o f n a tu ra l la n g u a g e q u a n t ifie rs . E u r o p e a n J o u r n a l o f C o g n it iv e P sy c h o l o g y , 5 , 7 3 ±9 1 . S c h u m a n , H ., & S c o tt, J. (1 9 8 9 ). G e n er at io n s a n d c o ll ec t iv e m e m o rie s . A m e r ic a n S o ci o l o g ic a l R e v ie w , 5 4 , 3 5 9 ±3 8 1 . S c h w a rz , N ., S tra c k , F ., M uÈ lle r, G ., & C h a s s e in , B . (1 9 8 8 ) . T h e ra n g e o f re s p o n s e al te rn at iv e s m a y d e te rm i n e th e m ea n in g o f th e q u e s tio n : F u rth er e v id e n c e o n i n fo rm a tiv e fu n c tio n s o f re sp o n s e a l te rn at iv e s. S o ci a l C o g n itio n , 6 , 1 0 7 ±1 1 7 . T a n u r, J .M . (E d .) (1 9 9 2 ) . Q u es t io n s a b o u t q u e s ti o n s : In q u ir ie s i n t o th e c o g n itiv e b a se s o f s u r v e y s . N e w Y o rk : R u s s e ll S a g e F o u n d a t io n . T u lv in g , E . ( 1 9 8 5 ). H o w m a n y m e m o ry s y s te m s a re th e re ? A m e r ic a n P s y c h o lo g is t, 4 0 , 3 8 5 ±3 9 8 . W il lis, G .B ., R o y s t o n , P ., &
B e rc i n i, D . (1 9 9 1 ) . T h e u s e o f v e rb a l re p o rt m e th o d s i n th e
d e v el o p m e n t a n d t e st in g o f s u rv e y q u e s ti o n n aire s . A p p lie d C o g n itiv e P s yc h o l o g y , 5 , 2 5 1 ±2 6 7 . W in k ie lm a n , P ., S c h w a rz , N ., & B e lli, R .F . (i n p re s s ). T h e ro le o f ea s e o f re trie v a l a n d a tt rib u t io n in m e m o ry ju d g m e n ts : J u d g in g y o u r m e m o ry as w o rs e d e sp it e re c a llin g m o re e v e n ts . P s yc h o lo g ic a l S c ie n c e. W ri g h t, D .B ., G a s k e l l, G .D ., & O ’ M u i rc h ea rt a ig h , C .A . ( 1 9 9 7 ). T e m p o ra l e s tim a t io n o f m a jo r n e w s e v e n t s : R e -e x a m in in g t h e a c c es s ib il ity p rin c ip le . A p p lie d C o g n itiv e P s y c h o l o g y, 1 1 , 3 5 ±4 6 .
