Teacher Supply: The Key Issues (Continuum Empirical Studies in Education)

Teacher Supply

Also available from Continuum: Theory of Education - David Turner Philosophy of Education - Richard Pring Markets and Equity in Education - Geoffrey Walford Private Education - Geoffrey Walford Analysing Underachievement in Schools - Emma Smith

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues Stephen Gorard, Beng Huat See, Emma Smith and Patrick White

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www.continuumbooks.com © Stephen Gorard, Beng Huat See, Emma Smith and Patrick White 2006 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers. Stephen Gorard, Beng Huat See, Emma Smith & Patrick White have asserted their right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as Authors of this work. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN: 0-8264-8770-X (hardback) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. Typeset by Ben Cracknell Studios I www.benstudios.co.uk Printed and bound in Great Britain by Biddies Ltd., King's Lynn

Contents

Preface List of tables List of figures Glossary of terms and acronyms

vi vii x xi

Introduction 1 An international crisis for the teaching workforce? 2 Reconsidering the indications of a crisis

1 3 21

On becoming a teacher 3 Deciding to become a teacher 4 Who enters teacher training? 5 Who succeeds in teacher training?

35 37 55 77

Describing the teaching workforce 6 Who are the teachers? 7 Which teachers are missing?

93 95 Ill

International perspectives on teacher quality 8 The views of the employers 9 Can we require 'highly qualified' teachers? The experience of the USA

133 135

Conclusion 10 Strengthening the teaching workforce

157 159

143

References

173

Index

191

Preface

This book emerges from a series of studies on issues of teacher supply, quality and retention, undertaken by the authors since 2000. The work was variously funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Teacher Training Agency, the General Teaching Council for Wales and the University Council for the Education of Teachers. This book is the first full account of the challenging findings that have emerged. These have already attracted attention from the media (e.g. The Times Educational Supplement, 24 September 2004, p. 1) and policy-makers (e.g. Memorandum to the House of Commons Education and Skills Committee, Teacher Retention and Recruitment,

Volume II, 2004, pp. 199-218). The evidence is drawn from a range of sources including: • reanalysis of all job vacancies, numbers and qualifications of schoolteachers in England and Wales over a decade; • value-added analysis of all teacher-training institutions in England; • a survey of the career intentions of 2,000 students in England and Wales; • focus-group interviews with trainee teachers in England and Wales; • international comparison of teacher shortages in all countries participating in PISA 2000; • consideration of the impact of No Child Left Behind on ensuring the provision of 'highly-qualified' teachers in the USA. From these various components of national and international evidence on teacher supply, quality and retention, the authors draw together a range of practical, research and policy-relevant conclusions.

List of tables

Table 2.1 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3.5 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 4.3 Table 4.4 Table 4.5 Table 4.6 Table 4.7 Table 4.8 Table 4.9 Table 4.10 Table 4.11 Table 4.12

School response rates to PISA 2000, by country Percentage of teachers and non-teachers, by UCAS tariff point scores Background characteristics differing between teachers and others Choice factor differences between teachers and others Perceptions of teaching which explain differences in career choice Percentage reporting the influence of financial incentives on their choice of career Percentage of students on PGCE courses, according to institution's RAE rating, 1998-2001 Percentage of accepted applicants, UK, 1994-2001 Percentage of PGCE students by level of first degree, England, 1998-2001 combined Percentage of entrants by initial degree and subject specialism, 1998-2001 combined Graduates and postgraduate teacher trainees with first or upper-second-class degrees, 1996-2001 Percentage of female PGCE applicants, UK, 1994-2001 Percentage of PGCE students among teaching sectors by sex, England, 1998-2001 Percentage of female PGCE applicants, by age category, UK, 2001 Percentage of PGCE students across subject areas, England, 1998-2001 combined Percentage of PGCE students training by sector, England, 1998-2001 Percentage of PGCE students by teaching sectors and level of first degree, England, 1998-2001 combined Percentage of PGCE students by ethnic group, England, 1998-2001 combined

28 40 43 45 46 48 59 59 66 66 67 68 68 69 72 72 73 74

viii

Table 4.13 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 5.7 Table 5.8 Table 5.9 Table 5.10 Table 5.11 Table 5.12 Table 5.13 Table 5.14 Table 5.15 Table 5.16 Table 5.17 Table 6.1 Table 6.2

List of tables

First-year ITT students in Wales, by disability status, December 2000 75 Percentage success in gaining QTS, according to sex, England, 1998-2001 78 Percentage success in gaining a teaching post, according to sex, England, 1998-2001 78 Distribution of students achieving QTS, according to level of first degree, England, 1998-2001 79 PGCE students with QTS and in a teaching post, according to level of first degree, England, 1998-2001 79 Percentage gaining QTS and a teaching post, by ethnic group, England, 1998-2000 80 Success rates of PGCE students, according to disability, England, 1998-2001 combined 81 Percentage of students attaining QTS by subject areas, England, 1998-2001 combined 82 PGCE students with QTS and in a teaching post, according to subject specialism, England, 1998-2001 83 Outcomes from ITT courses, PGCE students, England 1998-2000 combined 84 Percentage of PGCE students gaining QTS and a teaching post, according to TTA quality, England, 1998-2001 combined 84 Percentage of PGCE students obtaining QTS according to their OFSTED grading, England, 1998-2001 combined 85 Percentage of PGCE students obtaining QTS according to the OFSTED grading for their institution, England, 1998-2001 combined 86 Percentage of PGCE students gaining QTS, according to RAE rating of institution, England, 1998-2001 86 Percentage of PGCE students in teaching post, according to RAE rating of institution, England, 1998-2001 87 Number of first-year PGCE students per institution, 1998-2001 88 Percentage of PGCE entrants with first or upper-secondclass honours degree, by institution, 1998-2001 89 Percentage of PGCE students attaining QTS, by institution, 1998-2001 90 Qualified teachers in England, by sector, 1997-2005 (thousands) 97 Characteristics of the teacher population, England 2004 98

List of tables

Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5 Table 6.6 Table 6.7 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3 Table 7.4 Table 7.5 Table 7.6 Table 7.7 Table 7.8 Table 7.9 Table 7.10 Table 7.11 Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 8.3 Table 8.4 Table 9.1 Table 9.2 Table 10.1 Table 10.2

ix

Qualified teachers in LEA-maintained schools, Wales, 1998-2004 98 Provision for secondary education in maintained 99 schools (Wales) Pupilrteacher ratios, regions of the UK, 2002/03 102 PTRs in schools in Wales by type and sector 1996/7-2002/03 103 The ethnic composition of the teaching workforce, England 2003-05 108 Vacancy rates, primary sector, in England 1997-2005 113 Vacancy rates, secondary sector, in England 1997-2005 113 Teacher vacancies in maintained schools, Wales 1990/1 to 2001/02 114 Vacancy rates in LEA maintained schools in Wales, 1998-2004 114 Percentage vacancy rates by Government Office region, 2001-03 115 Is teacher supply better, worse or same as previous year? 115 Percentage of vacancies unfilled by school type, 2001 116 FT secondary classroom vacancy rates, in England 1997-2005, by subject 118 Resignations of LEA full-time permanent resigning teachers, all sectors, England and Wales, 1994-2001 122 Destinations as a percentage of those resigning, all sectors, England and Wales, 1994-2001 123 Turnover rates as a percentage of LEA full-time permanent teachers, all sectors, England and Wales, 1994-2001 124 Reports of teacher shortages and turnover hindering student progress, by country 137 Number of schools reporting problems with teacher shortages, Spain 139 Number of schools reporting problems with teacher shortages, Sweden 140 Number of schools reporting problems with teacher shortages by type, UK 140 Percentage teacher qualifications, according to school 'quality', Wisconsin 151 Number of classes in the core academic subjects being taught by 'highly qualified' teachers, California, 2003 153 Funding per full-time equivalent student, real-terms indices, 1995-2005 168 Maths degrees awarded and ITT intake targets, England and Wales, 1995/6 to 2000/01 170

List of figures

Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5 Figure 4.6 Figure 4.7 Figure 6.1 Figure 6.2 Figure 6.3 Figure 6.4 Figure 6.5 Figure 6.6 Figure 6.7 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.2 Figure 7.3 Figure 10.1

First year students on ITT courses by sector, Wales, 1996/7 to 2000/01 56 Enrolments on ITT by course type, Wales, 1994/5 to 2000/01 57 ITT recruitment in England and Wales (1995 and 2001) 58 ITT intake targets for maths, science and technology, England and Wales, 1997/8 to 2000/01 61 ITT intake targets and recruitment, 2003/04 62 Enrolments on ITT courses by sex, Wales, 1994/5 to 2000/01 69 Postgraduate ITT applicants by age and outcome, UK, 2001 70 Pupil and teacher numbers in maintained secondary schools in England, 1990-2004 96 Full-time pupils in schools in Wales 1990-2000, by age 97 Full-time equivalent pupil:teacher ratios in maintained schools, England, 1947-2002 100 Full-time equivalent pupil:teacher ratios by school type 103 Average class sizes and PTRs, 2004 104 Distribution of full-time teachers by age and gender, March 2000 106 Changes in the proportion of male and female teachers, secondary level, 1994-2004 107 Teacher vacancies in maintained secondary schools in England, by number, 1985-2004 112 Wastage rates for full-time teachers, England and Wales 1989/90 to 1999/2000, by age group 126 Wastage rates for full-time teachers, England and Wales 1989/90 to 1999/2000, by sector 127 Teacher vacancies and number of schools in England 1985-2004 169

Glossary of terms and acronyms

AGR - Association of Graduate Recruiters: an independent organization dedicated to supporting employers in all aspects of graduate recruitment in the UK. AUCL - The Association of University and College Lecturers: professional union for further and higher education lecturers. AYP - Adequate Yearly Progress: status under USA No Child Left Behind legislation which indicates that a school or a group of students have met certain accountability targets. BBC - British Broadcasting Corporation. BERA - British Educational Research Organization: professional organization whose aim is to sustain and promote a vital research culture in education. CTC - City Technical College: independent all-ability non-fee-paying schools for pupils aged 11-18. They offer a wide range of vocational qualifications and part of their role is to innovate in the development, management and delivery of the curriculum. DES - Department of Education and Science: former name of the Department for Education and Skills. DfE - Department for Education: former name of the Department for Education and Skills. DfES - Department for Education and Skills, previously the Department for Education and Employment (DfEE). EBR - Employment Based Route: work-based pathways to Qualified Teacher Status, such as the Graduate Teacher Programme; a programme of on-the job training allowing graduates to qualify as a teacher while they work. FTE - Full-Time Equivalent: the proportion of a nominal full-time individual that a non-full-time individual is judged to constitute. For comparison and funding purposes, numbers of part-time individuals are often converted to full-time equivalents.

xii

Glossary

GCSE - General Certificate of Secondary Education: national examinations taken at the end of compulsory schooling, usually at age 16. GTC(W) - General Teaching Council (Wales): a professional body for teaching, provides an opportunity for teachers to shape the development of professional practice and policy, and to maintain and set professional standards. GTTR - Graduate Teacher Training Registry: the UK central organization which accepts and processes applications to postgraduate teaching courses. HE - Higher Education: a post-compulsory phase of education, usually undertaken in universities or colleges. HEFCW - Higher Education Funding Council for Wales: responsible for the funding of higher education in Wales. It administers funds made available by the National Assembly for Wales to support education, research and associated activities at twelve higher education institutions. It also provides funds for prescribed higher education courses at further education colleges. HEI - Higher Education Institution: establishment where higher education is undertaken. HERO - Higher Education and Research Opportunities: website providing a gateway to universities, colleges and research organizations in the UK. HESA - Higher Education Statistics Agency: the central source for UK higher-education statistics. HOUSSE - High Objective Uniform State Standard Evaluation: part of the USA No Child Left Behind legislation under which states must demonstrate that their teacher workforce is highly qualified. IES - Institute of Employment Studies: undertakes research and consultancy for a wide range of UK and international organizations and policy bodies in all aspects of public employment policy and human resource practice. ITT - Initial Teacher Training (or Initial Teacher Education and Training (ITET)): most people need to take an ITT course in order to gain Qualified Teacher Status. LEA - Local Education Authority: a type of council which has responsibility for providing education to pupils of school age in its area. NAHT - National Association of Head Teachers: a professional union for headteachers. NafW - National Assembly for Wales: consists of 60 Members elected throughout Wales. The Assembly has delegated many of its powers to the First Minister, who leads the Welsh Assembly government.

Glossary

xiii

NASUWT - National Association of Schoolmasters/Union of Women Teachers: teacher union representing teachers and headteachers throughout the UK. NCLB - No Child Left Behind: American high-profile federal legislation designed to raise standards in schools. NES - New Earnings Survey: an annual sample survey of the earnings of employees in the UK. NFER - National Foundation for Educational Research: a not-for-profit organization which undertakes research, development and dissemination activities in the fields of education and training. NQT - Newly Qualified Teacher: teacher who has recently completed a programme of initial teacher training. NUT - National Union of Teachers: teacher union representing teachers and headteachers throughout the UK. NVQ - National Vocational Qualification: work-related, competencebased qualifications. OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: an international organization whose aim is to help governments tackle the economic, social and governance challenges of a globalized economy. ONS - Office for National Statistics: organization responsible for producing a wide range of economic and social statistics in the UK. OFSTED - Office for Standards in Education: government agency responsible for inspecting publicly funded schools in England. OU - Open University: the UK's largest university for part-time and distance-learning higher education, offers supported open learning materials for undergraduate and postgraduate qualifications in many subjects. PGCE - Post-Graduate Certificate in Education: postgraduate-level Initial Teacher Training qualification. PISA - Programme for International Student Assessment: an internationally standardized assessment administered to 15-year-olds in schools. PRP - Performance Related Pay: financial incentives that are offered to experienced teachers, aimed at encouraging and rewarding good teaching. PTR - Pupil Teacher Ratio: calculated by taking the full-time equivalent number of all pupils (where a part-time pupil counts as one half) and dividing it by the number of full-time equivalent teachers employed (calculated by looking at the number of hours worked by teachers). QTS - Qualified Teacher Status: the professional status you need to obtain to teach in state-maintained schools in England and Wales. QTS is normally awarded after successful completion of an Initial Teacher Training course.

xiv

Glossary

RAE - Research Assessment Exercise: assesses the quality of research in universities and colleges in the UK. RAND - The RAND Corporation is a non-profit research organization carrying out research that seeks to address the challenges facing public and private sectors around the world. The name RAND is a contraction of the terms research and development. SCITT - School Centred Initial Teacher Training: UK school-based teacher training course leading to Qualified Teacher Status. SHA - Secondary Heads' Association: UK professional association for leaders of secondary schools and colleges. SSB - Shortage Subject Bursaries: additional funding provided for trainee teachers in mathematics, science, information technology, design and technology, modern foreign languages, music, RE, English and Welsh (in Wales). STRB - School Teachers' Review Body: reports to the Prime Minister and to the Secretary of State for Education on the statutory pay and conditions of schoolteachers in England and Wales. TES- The Times Education Supplement, weekly UK education newspaper.

TTA - Teacher Training Agency (the Training and Development Agency for Schools (TDA) from September 2005): responsible for raising standards in schools in England by attracting able and committed people to teaching and by improving the quality of teacher training. UCAS - Universities and Colleges Admissions Service: central agency for processing applications for undergraduate courses including degree level Initial Teacher Training courses. UCET - Universities Council for the Education of Teachers: a national forum for the discussion of matters relating to the education of teachers and to the study of education in the UK university sector. UNESCO - the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization: functions as a 'laboratory of ideas' to forge universal agreements on emerging ethical issues, as well as serving as a clearing house for the dissemination and sharing of information and knowledge.

INTRODUCTION

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1

An international crisis for the

teaching workforce?

Outline

How developed countries train, recruit and retain their school teachers is an area of considerable interest in education today. When we started writing this book, concern in the UK and elsewhere was chiefly over unfilled teaching posts, poorly qualified trainees and tales of teachers leaving the profession in droves. These issues exercised considerable influence over government policy, staffroom discussions, the pages of academic journals and the mass media. As we completed the book, concern over teacher shortages abated somewhat. It has been replaced by fears that there are now too many teachers for the jobs available, but that there are not enough headteachers and school leaders, that rules for student funding will interrupt the supply of new teachers and that new workload agreements will lead to a greater unmet demand for teachers. Sometimes, all of these stories would appear in the newspapers at the same time. The teaching workforce appears to lurch from one crisis to another. To what extent is any of this concern justified, and what can be done about it? And to what extent is this concern not justified? This book draws together recent UK and worldwide research into issues of teacher supply, recruitment and retention, and seeks to challenge many of the myths and controversies which surround the issue. In this first chapter we present the traditional account of a teaching workforce in crisis, with shortages and poor quality prevalent. The chapter starts with a consideration of the problems in the UK over the last decade or so, looking at problems in recruiting teachers, teacher shortages and poor quality of teachers, before continuing to look at some of the reasons advanced for this crisis, and some of the policies introduced to try to solve it. In the following chapters we introduce the datasets used in this book, reconsider the complete trajectory of teaching from career choice to retirement and extend our analysis to all developed countries, before outlining some of the implications of our reinterpretation.

4

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

• There is widespread and growing concern about the supply, age and quality of the teaching workforce in the UK, and worldwide. • A variety of reasons have been suggested for these problems, including increased workload, poor student discipline and the low status of teaching as a career. • However, the most common policies implemented to address the problems are financial, offering incentives for training and recruitment.

Teacher recruitment When a Labour government came to power in the UK in 1997 it made an immediate commitment that 'education will be at the heart of government'. There were already signs that problems existed in terms of getting sufficient teachers into service, and concern about the quality of some of the trainees that were recruited. In the UK, most teachers are trained through either a dedicated first degree, often termed a Bachelor of Education (BEd), or a post-graduate professional training course, leading to a Post-Graduate Certificate in Education (PGCE). In 1998 recruitment to both routes was lower than in 1997. PGCE applications for teachers specializing in mathematics were down 22 per cent on the previous year in England and Wales. The intake was more than 6 per cent below the government targets, even though the targets themselves had been reduced (Haughton 1998). Science recruitment was down 15 per cent, and even a less obvious shortage subject, such as geography, was down by 14 per cent. In England, both the Teacher Training Agency (TTA) and the Graduate Teacher Training Registry (GTTR) reported continued difficulties in getting graduates to apply for Initial Teacher Training (ITT) over the following years, with recruitment in some specialist subject areas well below targets (Cassidy 2000). Recruitment of teacher trainees was still a problem and still failing to meet targets a year later (Schoolsnet 2001), and until at least 2003, perhaps especially for the new employment-based teacher-training routes and School Centred Initial Teacher Training (SCITTS) (Shaw 2003). Foreign languages became a shortage area to add to the perennial maths and science. Some commentators believe that the introduction of top-up fees for students will reduce recruitment further, especially in shortage subjects (Paton and Lucas 2005). In addition to these outright shortages, a marked drop in acceptance rates onto training courses from 1998 onwards was taken as evidence that insufficient good-quality or suitable people were applying (Smithers and Robinson 2000a). Intriguingly, in the mid-1990s, high acceptance rates had also been taken to mean a decline in the quality of candidates (House of Commons 1997a). The TTA argued that this implied that 'candidates who

An International Crisis for the Teaching Workforce"? 5 might not previously have secured a place may now be doing so' (House of Commons 1997b, Appendix 8, para 10). Teaching was also not attracting enough men to replace those retiring (School Teachers' Review Body 2001). One study showed that men were less likely to be accepted for PGCE courses than women, and predicted that the total number of male secondary teachers might fall to below 50,000 (Howson 2000). There have been reports of a serious loss of potential teachers before, during and after training. Government figures showed that only 71 per cent of those who completed teacher-training courses went directly into teaching in state schools (Howson 2001a). For example, of the 940 history PGCE students in the 1995/6 cohort, only 660 were still in teaching by 2000. A report for the National Union of Teachers (NUT) showed that even where the government was training enough teachers, there would still be a shortfall because of such dropout (Woodward 2001). This study found that 12 per cent of postgraduates did not complete their course and 30 per cent of trainees did not make it into the classroom, and of those who did 18 per cent left during the first three years. In fact, over half of all trainees were lost in these early stages. England and Wales are, apparently, being starved of teachers. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that these recruitment problems have been accompanied by reports of an insufficiency of teachers within state-funded schools. Teacher numbers

Advertised vacancies for teacher posts rose annually from the mid-1990s until 2001. The number of subjects designated as being in shortage increased over the same period. The number of unfilled places for teachers in schools had increased 71 per cent since 1997. By January 2001, in spite of the huge amount of public money injected to boost recruitment, teaching vacancies in secondary schools continued to increase, doubling the 2000 figures. Even where the vacancy rate in teaching is comparable to those of other occupations, the consequences of such vacancies in teaching can be more serious because 'the work cannot be left until later' (House of Commons 1997b, Appendix 13, para 19). Unlike in the late-1980s, the high vacancy rates did not correspond with a decline in pupil:teacher ratios. The pupil to teacher ratio was by then the highest it had been since 1976. This was seen as the beginning of a 'crisis' in teacher supply. In England and Wales the most serious shortages were in secondary-level maths, science, modern foreign languages and technology (DfEE 1998a), but English language, which previously had no problems with getting teachers, was also considered a shortage subject (School Teachers' Review Body 2001). In Wales, the schools inspectorate, Estyn, reported additional shortages in Welsh language, IT, geography, RE, art and music (Joint Submission to the School Teachers' Review Body 2002).

6

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

One commentator reported that 'the teacher recruitment crisis in Wales is laid bare today as an authoritative report reveals that schools all over the country are struggling to fill posts' (Rees 2002, p. 1). Comments to the media from the Chief Inspector of Schools in England, for 2001, suggested that the teacher 'shortage' was the worst for nearly 40 years (BBC News 2001a). According to a newspaper survey, official figures from 100 Local Education Authorities (LEAs) showed that vacancies amounted to 3,500 full-time posts (Smithers 2001a). Headlines appeared proclaiming that the 'Country has "run out" of teachers' (Dean 2000a). Schools were being forced to go on four-day weeks due to lack of staff (Woodward 2001), and pupils were being sent home because there were no teachers to teach them (Hutchins2001). Academics have also generally written as though teacher shortages are a well-established empirical phenomenon (e.g. Grace and Lawn 1991, Reid and Caudwell 1997, Bird 2002, Kyriacou et al. 2002). Studies of teacher shortages, both past and present, invariably point to the difficulties of recruiting and retaining teachers as the reasons for the prevailing problem (Lyons 1981, Hillman 1994, Robinson and Smithers 1998). The same issues appear in other developed countries (Ingersoll 2001, see also Chapters 8 and 9), and have been the subject of discussion by policy-makers and academics for some time (Shankler 1992). Teachers leaving

Other than lack of recruits, a further factor contributing to the reported teacher crisis in the UK has been an increase in resignations. This is apparently a problem set to worsen because the teaching population is reported as ageing, leading to a retirement 'time bomb' (Howson 2001b). Compared to 1990 there are now more teachers under the age of 30, but there are also more teachers in their 50s who would be expected to retire soon. By 1999, more teachers were leaving than entering the profession, resulting in a net loss of 14,300 practitioners in England and Wales (School Teachers' Review Body 2001). A general perception was that teachers were leaving due to dissatisfaction with the profession. More than 40,000 teachers below the age of 40 and a further 26,000 aged between 40 and 50 quit from 1993 to 1999 (Dean 2001). In one report several local authorities reported evidence of the rising number of teachers leaving the authority (Mansell and Coulter 2000). Bournemouth LEA reported a 16 per cent rise in the number of teachers leaving the authority in the summer of 2000 alone, and in Wolverhampton there had been a worrying increase in the numbers leaving the profession. What is even more worrying is the evidence that the teachers who left the profession were not very likely to return (Gilford and Tenenbaum 1990, Ross 2000). Government figures showed that returners to full-time teaching

An International Crisis for the Teaching Workforce?

7

which accounted for 50 per cent of recruitment in 1992 had fallen to 39 per cent in 2001. Headlines reported that 'Staff crisis worsens as thousands quit' (Dean 2001), while teachers were leaving the profession in droves (House of Commons Hansard Debates 2000). At time of writing there are plans to raise the pension age for teachers from 60 to 65. While this may have the undesirable impact of retaining more tired teachers it may also be off-putting to new entrants (Kirkman and Stewart 2003). Teacher quality

As if all of the above were not enough, over the same period there have been increasing complaints about the quality of the teachers that are available - in addition to concerns about their unrepresentativeness in terms of age, ethnic or sex distribution. It has been argued that government statistics do not necessarily reveal the real scale of the problem because of the deployment of 'underqualified' teachers. Concerns have been expressed that 'insufficient high quality entrants were being attracted in comparison to other professions' and 'the quality of entrants was low in shortage subject areas' (House of Commons 1997a, 1997b, BBC News 2001a). Roper (2002) reported that schools were finding it increasingly difficult to recruit 'suitably' qualified staff for permanent posts, especially those in the shortage subject areas (Report of Sir Gareth Roberts' Review 2002). Headteachers were increasingly relying on foreign teachers with poor command of English (Smithers 2001b). In a survey by the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT), seven out of ten vacancies in secondary schools in a London authority had apparently been filled by people without the necessary qualifications (Levenson 2001, Joint Submission to the School Teachers' Review Body 2002). This dependence on supply teachers has serious implications for the quality of lessons delivered. About 25 per cent of lessons taught by supply teachers were regarded as unsatisfactory by the Office for Standards in Education (OFSTED) (House of Commons 2000). Only a quarter of Key Stage 3 teachers have maths qualifications, and up to 45 per cent of those teaching 11-14 year-olds have limited knowledge of maths and little or no training. Most of these teachers did not study their specialist subject beyond A-level (Henry and Thornton 2001). In physics, one-third of teachers did not have a physics degree while another third had not even passed physics A-level (Canovan and Ward 2002). The introduction of employment-based routes into teaching has not helped. An OFSTED report suggests that school-based teacher trainees have only a very narrow experience of teaching and teaching strategies. They find it difficult to teach high-ability students and sixth formers, and have limited subject knowledge (Slater 2005). This leads to twice as many unsatisfactory lessons as for standard trainees.

8

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

The reasons for the crisis?

Several possible reasons have been suggested for this apparently unsatisfactory state of affairs in England and Wales. Some of these are outlined below. The following section looks briefly at some of the more recent policy responses. It is important, in light of the evidence presented in following chapters, that readers are aware that we are simply repeating reports of this 'crisis' in teacher supply. We do not entirely accept it. Pay Perhaps the most obvious possible reason is financial. Put simply, some commentators claim that teachers are not paid enough to attract both suitable numbers and high-quality students. According to OFSTED, '40% of teachers were leaving the profession before completing three years in the classroom because their salaries offered them little hope of getting on the property ladder' (BBC News 2001b). A study conducted by the University of Hertfordshire found that 60 per cent of newly qualified teachers had considered leaving due to poor pay (Mansell 2000). One in ten of the newly qualified teachers who actually left their jobs cited the high cost of living as the reason. One teacher said, 'I would like to teach in Hertfordshire again, but I couldn't do it on my wages. My rent alone accounted for more than half my wages, and that was for a one-bedroom flat more than 20 miles away from the school'. There have been calls for funding to be made top priority, arguing that higher salaries were justified, as they would be likely to make teaching more pleasurable and rewarding and, consequently, contribute to higher-quality education (Judd 2003). Teachers are not generally paid the same as some similar graduate professions (Dolton et al. 1990). In September of 1997/8, the six teacher unions made a joint submission to the teachers' pay review body calling for large pay increases (BBC News Online 1998). An NAHT member said: I would certainly quite strongly disagree with those who say that salaries are not important. I do not understand, for the life of me, why teachers are unique, in the whole of the employment field in this country, and should be expected not to be concerned about the sort of salary levels they should be receiving (House of Commons 1997a, para 35, p. xii). The document spelt out the range of shortage subjects and pointed out that not only was the starting salary almost 12 per cent below the average for graduates, but that teachers' pay rose by an average of only 31 per cent after five years, compared to 63 per cent for other graduate professions. Although an increasing number of incentives were then launched to boost

An International Crisis for the Teaching Workforce? 9 recruitment, these have been viewed as neither effective nor appropriate in tackling the current teacher-supply problem (Thompson et al. 1988, Bullock and Scott 1989). In 2000 when it was reported that applications to teacher training had dropped by more than 8 per cent on the previous year, the unions asked for a substantial pay increase to 'combat teacher shortages' (Dean 2000b). In the words of Dunford, General Secretary of the Secondary Heads' Association (SHA): 'we need fewer initiatives and more pay if we are to turn around the continuing failure to meet recruitment targets' (ibid.). Clearly pay was seen as such an important contributory factor that the unions called for an independent inquiry into teachers' pay (Thornton 2001) similar to the Houghton inquiry 30 years previously. In 2001, the government's reluctance to increase teachers' pay above the rate of inflation was again blamed for the shortage of teachers. Five main teachers' unions accused the government of placing an 'inappropriate emphasis on the use of these so-called targeted recruitment incentives' (School Teachers' Review Body 2001). According to the unions, the key cause of the problem in recruiting and retaining teachers was still the relatively poor general position of teachers in terms of salary compared to other graduate professions. The Smithers and Robinson Report (Schoolsnet 2001) commissioned by the NUT recommended that teachers' salaries be made more attractive and competitive and called for substantial extra funding to be made available to schools. According to Smithers, One of the arguments on better salary was that people had gone into teaching as a vocation, and it has become a much more industrial process where they (teachers) were judged by output. If the criteria and targets of industry were going to be applied to them, they were looking for a commensurate salary. Another important factor that was putting potential teachers off teaching was the cost of postgraduate training, because it usually entails an extra year at university. Teacher trainees had to incur an additional year of maintenance loan and debt. This problem was intensified by the introduction of tuition fees and the phasing out of the maintenance grant in England. Entrants to many other professions are not generally required to pay for their training (Naylor and Schaefer 2002, p. 1). The House of Commons (1997a) pointed to the performance of the economy as a key contributing factor in the problem of recruitment and retention. Generally, it was felt that many other professions had a more attractive image, better pay and working conditions. Employers in other professions also paid for their employees' training. When the graduate job market was good, competition for graduates was more intense. In 1997, the Association of Graduate Recruiters (AGR) found that information

10

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

technology posts were the most difficult to fill because employers were willing to pay good salaries to computer science and mathematics graduates - hence the difficulty in recruiting computer science and mathematics teachers. In the House of Commons, Blunkett, the Secretary of State in 1998, acknowledged the difficulty, especially of getting young people to take up these subjects at A-level. Teaching was already taking 50 per cent of all UK maths graduates. The difficulty in recruiting an adequate number of shortage subject teachers in times of high employment had been blamed for the declining quality of teacher trainees. In the words of Nigel Gates, former National Chairman of the Association of University and College Lecturers (AUCL): But, as the number of applicants declined, admissions tutors . . . may well be forced into accepting students, that under ideal circumstances, they would prefer to reject (House of Commons 1997b, Appendix 3, para 5). This declining quality was seen by some as 'the start of a vicious circle that then discourages others from coming into the profession', in the words of Jane Benham, Head of Teacher Supply and Recruitment: It's something to do with the subject perception; physics is seen as a difficult subject, therefore it might not be so easy to get a good degree at university, therefore you do not get enough people doing it at A level, so you do not get enough people going into university and coming out into teacher training, so you do not get enough people in the schools (House of Commons 1997b, p. 10). On the other hand, there are several reasons why the link between pay and teacher supply is not as sure as sometimes portrayed. In some respects even the basic issue of poor pay for teachers is not established. The salary figures used by the NUT from the Smithers and Robinson Report (see above) were based on a group of better-qualified graduates on special recruitment programmes with major graduate employers (National Employers' Organization for School Teachers 2001). These accounted for only one in eight of all graduates entering employment. In other words, the figures substantially overstated the average salaries of new graduates. Moreover, the starting salary quoted for teachers was based on figures outside London with no London allowance, while the figures used as evidence for the disparity were based primarily on average starting salaries among Londonbased employers. Other salary surveys, such as those conducted by Barclays Bank and the Higher Education Careers Services Unit, indicate that graduates actually enter a wider range of jobs, often on salaries £2,000 or more below the

An International Crisis for the Teaching Workforce? 11 figures used by Smithers and Robinson (School Teachers' Review Body 2001). Another discrepancy in the teachers' unions' submission was the use of two different data sources in their comparison of teachers' pay. The unions compared teachers' earnings from the Review Body's survey with those of non-manual earnings data from the New Earnings Survey (NES), even though the NES also published data on teachers. It would make more sense if they had used data from the same source that used the same methodology. Using the same data source, it would have been found that teachers' earnings were actually 110 per cent of non-manual earnings for the year 2000. In fact, teachers' earnings compared to non-manual earnings were higher in 2000 than at any time between 1982 and 1990 (National Employers' Organization for School Teachers 2001). Perhaps teachers are not so badly paid after all, certainly compared to the general workforce and perhaps also compared to general graduate employment. In one poll, eight out of ten teachers reported that they enjoyed a comfortable lifestyle and 'most own their own detached or semi-detached home' (Passmore 2002). In July 2000 when asked about the major issues that most concern their members, none of the four representative members of the teachers' unions mentioned pay or salary (House of Commons 2000). It was the poor salary progression or perceived lack of an attractive career structure and lack of fringe benefits rather than salary per se that were seen as a deterrent. Studies of why people leave teaching suggest that pay and status do not feature highly, but that lack of promotion opportunities is important (Smithers 1990, Lock 1993). Of 25 OECD countries in 2003/04, UK teachers were among the highest paid, and pay for new teachers has increased more rapidly there than elsewhere, with UK teachers having among the best promotion prospects (Paton 2005a). The importance of pay and the economic cycle as a determinant of teacher supply is discussed further in Chapter 10, in light of the evidence presented throughout this book. Morale According to Furlong (2005), in the period of 'New' Labour since 1997 teacher education has not been accorded the key political significance that it had under the previous administration. The nurturing of professional individuals is no longer seen as relevant, especially in initial training. The state (at least in England and Wales) is intervening more and more to prescribe what an effective teacher is, and how they must be trained. This affects the status and morale of teachers. However, concerns about morale are not new. In 1990, the House of Commons Select Committee published a report on the supply of teachers for the 1990s, and there was cross-party agreement that state-school teaching had lost much of its attractiveness.

12

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

In the course of our inquiry we received a great deal of evidence of low morale in the teaching force. This is one of the most significant factors in any current analysis of the teaching profession. It has major implications for the future, in particular for the task of matching supply and demand for teachers in the 1990s . . . In putting forward proposals to ensure the necessary supply of teachers for the 1990s we have come to the conclusion that the priority must be to consider the low morale in the teaching force (House of Commons 1990a, Vol. I, p.vii). The negative image of teachers has often been cited as one of the main reasons why people do not want to go into teaching. This not only has implications for recruitment, but retention as well. In the Select Committee on Education First Report (House of Commons 1997a), the negative portrayal of teaching by the media and the public was given as an important factor putting off many would-be teachers. Evidence submitted by the NUT, Universities Council for the Education of Teachers (UCET) and AUCL pointed to the 'low status in the community', 'constant vilification in the public domain' and 'frequent well-publicised attacks on, and vilification of the teaching profession', all of which made teaching unattractive. Headlines like Crackdown on bad teachers' (Guardian, 16July 1997), 'Shephard expels scruffy teachers from classroom {The Times, 19 February 1997), 'Recruitment crisis hits more subjects', 'But where are the teachers?', 'How many posts stay vacant for lack of applicants?', and the widespread coverage of the mass exodus of teachers following the government's changes to the pension and early retirement regulations had all given teaching a poor image. Potential recruits might have thought there must be something very wrong with the profession if people were leaving in masses. Workload

Interviews with sixth formers, PGCE students and undergraduates indicate that extra money alone would not attract people into teaching. It may appeal to those who are contemplating teaching, but may not have gone in for training were it not for the extra money (Revell 2000a). Reports claimed that there were other issues to be addressed to make the profession more generally attractive - among them are the workload and poor working conditions (Leach and Barnard 2000). Workload has long been a major source of concern for some commentators (School Teachers' Review Body 2001). Headlines such as 'Workload fuels the jobs crisis' (Revell 2001), 'Workload, pay and pupil behaviour top the agenda at this year's annual meetings' (Thornton 2002a), 'It's not just about money' (Ward and Thornton 2002) testify to the increasing complaints about teachers' workload. In one newspaper survey, workload was cited as the biggest single

An International Crisis for the Teaching Workforce ? 13 issue facing schools (Revell 2001). The article succinctly described teaching as a profession: where 60-hour weeks and weekend working are the norm. No one should be surprised at the recent recruitment crisis. Kids see the reality every day, so why on earth would they want to join the treadmill? Ministers think the answer lies with pay, but people leaving the profession don't give pay as the main attraction in their shiny new job. They cite opportunities for flexible working and creativity. In a survey conducted by Exeter University in 2002 just under half of trainees surveyed were concerned about the 'eternal paperwork', a quarter with workload and long hours and a fifth about poor salaries (Thornton 2002b). Only a third of these students expected to be teaching after 10 years. In a similar earlier study by the University of Hertfordshire, almost 80 per cent of the teachers who qualified in the previous five years and who were still in a teaching post had considered leaving, giving excessive workload as the main reason (Mansell 2000). In Cheshire, four out often teachers surveyed in 2000 said they wanted to quit within five years. The main reasons given were excessive paperwork and the unhelpful attitude of parents (Mansell and Coulter 2000). Work-related factors such as over-auditing, inspection, curricular restrictions and lack of parental support are driving potential teachers away (Barnard 2000a, Richards 2000, Thornton and Dean 2000). However, in 1997 the IES estimated that classroom teachers worked on average between 45 and 50 hours a week in term time (House of Commons 1997b, Appendix 5), and not at all in the statutory holidays. Similar figures were given by the School Teachers' Review Body Tenth Report (2001). Neither suggest that this is excessive compared to other occupations, and both indicated that the working hours of teachers were lower than that of managers, administrators and other professionals who were more likely to

put in extra time with no additional pay. And the school holidays remain considerably longer than in comparable occupations, such as nursing, social work or accountancy. Perhaps the problem lies more in what goes on in those hours of work. Discipline Teaching involves chasing absent pupils and dealing with difficult pupil behaviour - another factor which puts people off teaching. In the minutes of evidence to the Education and Employment Committee, Chris Woodhead, the then Chief Inspector of Schools in England, acknowledged that 'bad discipline is enormously important as regards teaching morale inside schools' (House of Commons 2000). One teacher who left after six years as a secondary science teacher remarked:

14

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

The worst time was when a parent came in and threatened me because I had given his daughter detention. I had been threatened by children, but that wasn't so worrying (BBC News 2001b). In a study conducted by Ross (2000), one of the teachers explained: During my time at the school I was assaulted by a pupil which I found extremely traumatic. The head was extremely unsupportive and after initially being told that the boy would be expelled, the decision was then changed, the boy and the incident became a large debate within the school. I became depressed and became aware that I had to leave. Newspaper headlines like 'Pupils threaten one in six teachers' (Thornton and Dean 2000) do little for recruitment to the profession. The article was a report of a survey by Teacherline which suggested that as many as 85,000 teachers in England and Wales had experienced threats or verbal aggression from pupils over a two-year period. This means that it is not sufficient, under current arrangements, for a teacher to be pedagogically competent. They need also to be able to feel happy about discipline. This may not affect overall figures for recruitment, but could have a major influence in determining the relative desirability of posts in different schools. Responses Recent responses, intended to solve some of the problems outlined in this chapter, have included high-profile national advertisements in a range of media, the introduction of financial incentives aimed at attracting more high-quality trainees, sizeable 'golden hello' payments for those who successfully complete their induction teaching period in priority subjects and the Fifth Report of the 2003/04 Session of House of Commons Select Committee on Education and Skills (House of Commons 2004). Many of the current initiatives are not new in conception and date back to at least the 2nd Report from the Education, Science and Arts Committee, Session 1989-1990: The Supply of Teachers far the 1990s (House of Commons 1990a). The report recommendations included, among other things, bursaries for training in shortage subjects, grants for in-service training, virtual participation in professional development, taster courses for potential teachers and returners, employment-based training routes, national advertising and publicity to make teaching appear attractive, flexible working arrangements and affordable accommodation in London. Two of the stated strategic aims of the TTA, since its establishment in 1994, have been to recruit sufficient able and committed people to the teaching profession, as well as to improve the quality of training for teachers in England (Teacher Training Agency 2004a). In 1998 the government

An International Crisis for the Teaching Workforce? 15 announced a £130-million package to tackle shortages in maths and science. Thus, the much talked-about 'golden hello' scheme came into being. Shortly after this, the government published the Green Paper, Teachers: Meeting the Challenge of Change (DfEE 1998a). Among the measures proposed were: • £1 billion to reform the salary system in schools. This involved the introduction of a two-tier salary structure separated by a new performance threshold. • Access to a higher pay scale to be made available to teachers who perform well, from September 2000. • A fast-track scheme where outstanding teachers could hope to earn up to £40,000. • £5,000 incentive for those training for PGCE maths or science. • £250,000 to establish a network of regional advisers to coordinate and revitalize local recruitment activities. • Setting up a National College for School Leadership. • Provision of better support for teachers in the classroom by providing classroom assistants and access to new technology and facilities. Government initiatives on workload included a report by the government's Better Regulation Task Force in April 2000 and the subsequent action plan generally regarded as a positive basis for tackling the workload burdens of heads. The DfEE/Cabinet Office report, Making a Difference: Reducing School Paperwork, of December 2000 was intended to lead to a further streamlining and reduction of the demands on schools. Performance-related pay

As part of the government's plan to modernize the teaching profession, a system of performance-related pay (PRP) was introduced. This includes a scheme to reward teachers who demonstrate 'excellent performance', and so improve the retention of good teachers in the classroom who would otherwise not have had the chance of going beyond their maximum salary scale (DfEE 1998a). Previously, good teachers might either have been progressively promoted out of the classroom into leadership roles, or sought alternative employment. Retaining such teachers as teachers ought to improve the quality of teaching (Marsden and French 1998). The arrangements also saw the introduction of the 'fast track' scheme, which provides an opportunity for teachers 'with exceptional ability' and some new entrants to advance quickly through the pay scale to the threshold (DfEE 1999a). The performance of schools as a whole can also be rewarded under the School Performance Award Scheme. While PRP was presented to teachers as an example of a successful private-sector pay award system, the research is not clear how successful it

16

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

has actually been in the private sector nor how usefully the policy can be borrowed by the public sector (Cutler and Waine 2000). The initial response from many teachers and their unions was negative. Even though teachers were invited to respond to the proposals in the Green Paper as part of a consultation process (DfEE 1999b), many complained about not being consulted, and the mid-week term-time consultation workshops held in 1999 were seen as a smokescreen, because teachers generally could not attend them (Forrester 2000). Perhaps these unfavourable perceptions were also influenced by the initial negative responses from the teaching unions and the media (Barnard 1999, de Gruchy 1999, Rafferty 1999). The main criticism of the scheme was its assumption that if the teachers' salaries are tied to their output they are more likely to perform efficiently, because in education any outcome is multi-dimensional, and so difficult to measure. Nigel de Gruchy, General Secretary of the National Association of Schoolmasters/Union of Women Teachers (NASUWT) argued that exam scores are not reliable measures of the quality of teachers (House of Commons 2000). He explained that 'the result of any given pupil output is a combination of the teachers who have gone beforehand and the other teachers in the school operating in different subjects'. Such a system of measurement and reward may also have undesirable side effects, with teachers encouraged to concentrate their efforts on pupils who are on the borderline of passing examinations at the expense of the less able pupils. Some commentators drew comparison with the failed payment by results scheme in the nineteenth century. In times of economic boom where there is strong competition for graduates in the labour market, government reforms which put greater pressure on the already stretched teachers can be counterproductive. PRP could, therefore, demoralize teachers and induce dysfunctional behaviour, because the implication is that those who did not apply or who applied but were unsuccessful were less than competent. Critics, therefore, argue that it undermines the collegiate culture in schools (Forrester 2000, Revell 2000b, Sission and Storey 2000). In response to these and other fears, the government decided to give the money for funding threshold pay directly to heads in the form of direct grants (Barnard 2001). But because schools are responsible for their own budgets, headteachers may be unable or reluctant to fund the award. Training incentives

By 2000, another financial incentive was the (re) introduction of shortage subject bursaries for PGCE students. Graduates entering ITT were also exempt from paying tuition fees. These measures were intended to attract people who, for financial reasons, would otherwise not have chosen teaching as a career. Financial support is prioritized for students on PGCE courses

An International Crisis for the Teaching Workforce? 17 since this is the route taken by most secondary schoolteachers where the teacher shortage is the most pronounced. The DfEE hoped that the combination of trainee salaries and the performance pay scheme would help make teaching a more attractive career. Schools got £13,500 to cover trainees' salary in addition to the £4,500 paid to local authorities to cover training costs. John Howson, a training consultant, who had been calling for a trainee salary for five years, welcomed the news when the training salaries were first announced (Barnard 2000b). He said: 'I would expect to see a 20 per cent rise in recruitment as a result of this'. However, its long-term effect is unclear. Other commentators warned that by focusing on subject-based training, more prevalent on the PGCE route, incentives could mean the demise of the four-year BEd courses (McTaggart 2000). Undergraduates who were left out of the new deal thought the policy was unfair and discriminatory. One student claimed that she chose the four-year BA(Ed) in primary education because she was sure she wanted to be a teacher and the four-year course would allow her more time to reflect on her experience and evaluate her teaching skills. She argued that the incentives should be job satisfaction, not financial gains (Booy 2000). Even those students on the PGCE scheme who benefitted from the deal were not impressed. Many thought the scheme was shortsighted and that it would attract those 'who would take the nine-month course to buy some time while deciding what they want to do with their future' (Bonehill and Boissiere 2000). They suggested that the government should instead help trainees pay off the £6,000 of their student loans at the end of the newly qualified teacher year. At the time of writing, the picture for incentives is mixed. All students face a regime of variable tuition fees, met by loans, and this may discourage students from taking the fourth year in HE necessary for traditional teacher training. On the other hand, the TTA have announced a combination of attractive bursaries and golden hellos for student teachers in England from September 2006 (Teacher Training Agency 2005). Other home countries are likely to produce schemes that are just as attractive in relation to their devolved higher education (HE) finance. Trainees in the primary sector and in non-shortage areas in the secondary sector will receive a £6,000 bursary. Trainees in shortage subjects will receive a £9,000 bursary. Most trainees will then receive a further £2,500 after successful induction as a teacher, while new teachers of maths and science will receive £5,000. It is interesting to consider why financial motivation plays such a key role both in successive Select Committee recommendations and the education policy of successive administrations, given that pay and salaries are not generally identified as the main factor affecting teacher supply. One possible explanation could be that money is relatively easy to control and to legislate about. Improving image and morale more directly would require changing people's behaviour and perceptions. Improving morale and teacher

18 Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

motivation entails structural and organizational changes that are difficult to implement, and take time to produce results. Governments who can only be certain of being in office for four to five years do not have the luxury of time to play with. If the government or even the unions want to be seen to be doing something that benefits the teaching profession, and whose results can be seen in the short term, then monetary incentives seem to be the easiest to manipulate. Structure of the book

Having outlined the recent crisis in teacher supply in the UK, it is interesting in the succeeding chapters to examine the impact on teacher recruitment, quality and retention of the explanations proffered and the policy responses to them. Do potential teachers report being put off by the workload? Does teacher recruitment improve in years when other graduate opportunities are scarce? Do fewer teachers resign in years following a real-terms increase in teacher pay? And so on. What we need is a greater knowledge about how to attract graduates into teaching when the demand arises, how to attract higher-quality graduates and how to attract more graduates able to teach shortage subjects. As Johnson and Birkeland (2003) pointed out, for government initiatives to be effective there needs to be a clear and complete understanding of teachers' concerns about the profession. In order to understand more about this apparent crisis in teacher supply, and its solution, we need to examine as much evidence as possible about teacher numbers and quality over as long a period as possible — both historically and over the lifetime of potential teachers. The next chapter briefly describes the datasets available to us for these purposes, and our approach to their analysis. Chapter 3 looks at why people become teachers and, more importantly for policy, why they do not. It does so by considering the general student population, and identifying the important determinants influencing individuals' career decisions. This also helps to explain the under-representation of certain groups of people in teaching. In addition, we look at the factors influencing students' decision to go into teaching or not, to see if these were largely to do with financial inducements or other career characteristics. Chapter 4 describes the kinds of people who enter teacher training, and presents trends over time in terms of their numbers. Chapter 5 looks at the outcomes of teacher training, both in terms of attaining qualified teacher status, and in obtaining a subsequent teaching post. It looks also at differential success rates in terms of individual characteristics and the institutions they attend. Chapter 6 presents trends in the composition of the teaching workforce, and their relationship to the number of schools and pupils. Chapter 7 returns to an examination of the teachers who are 'missing' - in terms of unfilled posts, teacher turnover

An International Crisis for the Teaching Workforce? 19 and resignations. In light of what others have claimed about the crisis in teacher supply for the UK, the results are surprising. Chapter 8 moves our consideration of the available evidence to a wider international perspective, looking at the results of an OECD comparative study into the demand for teachers. Chapter 9 focuses chiefly on the situation in the USA, and developments since the No Child Left Behind legislation. Chapter 10 considers the implications for research into teacher supply, presents a summary of the evidence presented so far, some alternative explanations for the crises reported in this chapter and elsewhere, and makes a limited number of policy recommendations, based on the findings presented in this book.

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2

Reconsidering the indications of a crisis

Despite the accounts of crises in the teaching workforce described in Chapter 1, preparing a true description of their nature is a complex task. As we will show here and in subsequent chapters, calculating a shortage in the number or quality of teachers is not an easy undertaking. This chapter describes the various national and primary datasets we used to provide the evidence base for this book, along with some of the various techniques needed for their analysis. • The datasets used in this study are the most comprehensive and highest quality available. Nevertheless, some datasets contain large amounts of missing data, and in others, the absence of individual identifiers makes analysis of important trends impossible. Changes in the way data has been officially collected and presented over time add to the problems of time-based analyses. • The nomenclature employed by different organizations when describing and assessing patterns in the teacher workforce can present difficulties. Particular issues arise over the meaning and application of terms such as teacher 'wastage', 'turnover' and 'vacancy'. • These, and other, limitations mean that considerable care must be used when making claims about teacher supply.

Sources of information used in the book All students

An important and original source of data for this book was a survey of 1,845 undergraduate and postgraduate students in four higher-education institutions in South-west England and South Wales, ranging from the more prestigious Russell Group universities to independent colleges of higher education. Four main subject groups (arts and humanities, social sciences, mathematics and science and vocational) were used to represent the broad

22

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

range of students. 'Vocational courses' included education, law, accountancy, business studies and sports and leisure management. Entire courses, as represented by those students present at core lectures, were asked to participate in the study. Among these, the overall response rate was 82 per cent. The sample was selected after a reanalysis of all available and historical statistics relating to teacher supply and retention in England and Wales, as well as the annual census data for university admissions (See 2005). These figures suggested that our sample was a good representation of both the overall student population and the teacher-trainee population in 2002. The main value of this survey was that it included trainee teachers undergraduate and postgraduate - along with other professional trainees on courses such as social work, as well as undergraduates considering teacher training, students who had considered and rejected teacher training and students who had never seriously considered teaching as a career. Their evidence forms the basis for Chapter 3. A self-administered questionnaire survey was used to identify the important factors that influenced these students' decisions about whether or not to become teachers. The instrument was designed and piloted following a series of preliminary interviews (email and focus group) with both potential and trainee teachers. The survey gathered details about students' retrospective life histories and their reported career decisions, plans and motivations, placing the latter within the context of their longerterm educational and career trajectory. The survey was supplemented by small group interviews with the different types of students, the results of which are presented throughout the book. In addition to the student survey, contextual information about the wider student population was obtained from the Universities and Colleges Admissions Services for the UK (UCAS) and the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). UCAS administers applications to undergraduate courses offered by higher-education institutions (HEIs) in the UK. Data was available, at www.ucas.ac.uk, for all successful applicants to undergraduate courses for the years of entry 1994 to 2001 and was disaggregated by sex, institution and subject group. While HESA has little data for public download, many data sets retrieved from other locations are compiled using HESA data (www.hesa.ac.uk/, see also Gorard 2005). Trainee teachers

The TTA provided us with individual data on all teacher trainees in England in their first and last years of training for the years 1998 to 2001. These figures were used chiefly to help characterize the trainee teacher population, consider limited trends over time and identify the likely determinants of successfully achieving Qualified Teacher Status (QTS) and a subsequent teaching post (Smith and Gorard 2006). This last objective meant that we

Reconsidering the Indications of a Crisis 23 could only use records with a complete training record, and required a focus on the one-year PGCE programmes, as illustrated in Chapters 4 and 5. This is a pragmatic compromise rather than a choice on the part of the researchers. In each year there were between 17,000 and 18,000 such students, totalling 72,881 over the four years, and analysis of these records is labelled as having TTA as the source. These records provided information about trainees' sector and subject of study, as well as individual characteristics such as sex, ethnicity, initial degree classification and the outcomes of their ITT courses. The latter led to two outcome variables - achievement of QTS and success in securing a teaching post after completing the course. This employment data is obtained annually by the TTA from the HESA First Destination Survey, which is designed to establish employment status six months after completing a course of study. Teaching posts were considered in all sectors, whether in schools maintained by the state or not. The census date is 3 January of each year, and the HE sector return rate for the annual surveys is between 80 and 85 per cent. Other sources of information included the TTA 2002 Performance Profiles (www.canteach.gov.uk/), which were helpful in assessing the overall quality of applicants and entrants to ITT, and the GTTR, which produces Annual Statistical Reports about postgraduate ITT courses and applicants (www.gttr.ac.uk). In addition to examining the characteristics of intending teachers, we were also able to consider whether these characteristics vary between different types of ITT institutions. In order to do this, we defined two different aspects of institutions. The first characterized institutions according to the outcome of their most recent inspection by the OFSTED, while the second looked at the institution's research profile, as defined by their score in the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE). Both categories are described in more detail below. OFSTED carries out a regular programme of inspection for ITT providers. Each inspection lasts around two weeks, spread over the academic year. The inspection data forms part of the TTA Performance Profiles available from the TTA website (Teacher Training Agency 2003). Inspectors award grades for management and quality assurance, training and trainees' standards. Full inspections result in institutions being graded for standards, and training in each of the individual curriculum subjects used in preparing secondary schoolteachers. Each item is graded from 1 to 4 and measures aspects of the ITT course such as trainees' subject knowledge and teaching standards, as well as the institution's course design and mode of delivery. This data is then used to provide an aggregate overall quality rating in the range A to E. The overall 'institutional quality ratings' are used by the TTA to provide information to prospective students, and as a basis for some funding decisions, including the allocation of student numbers.

24

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

The RAE 2001 assessed the quality of research in universities and colleges in the UK (HERO 2004). Each department or submission was given a rating in the range 1 to 5 according to the proportion of submitted work judged to reach national or international levels of excellence. In our analyses we collapse these categories to four: • Institutions or departments of education judged to produce work that is largely of national or international quality (4 to 5*), including mostly pre-1992 universities. • Institutions or departments of education judged to produce some work of national quality (3a and 3b), including mostly post-1992 universities. • Institutions or departments of education making no submission or judged not to produce work of national quality (1 or 2). This group includes several traditional colleges of higher education. • Institutions and partnerships that offer SCITTs, occupying a middle ground between traditional PGCE and employment-based schemes, and run by accredited training groups. Students on the SCITT programme remain in schools for around 90 per cent of their time.

Teachers in service

The Office for National Statistics (ONS atwww.statistics.gov.uk/) is one of the richest sources of official data in the UK, holding data on its own website, providing links to other sources and publishing Statistical Bulletins. This website was particularly useful for sources of information not directly related to education, such as population projections and migration patterns. Where possible, the original sources of data accompany any figures and tables included in our analyses. However, where original sources are not stated, then ONS is listed as the first point of contact. Data reported by the ONS as originally collected by government departments are attributed to the original source. This means that data collected by the UK Department of Education under various prior names, such as DfEE and/or DES, is attributed to those rather than the current Department for Education and Skills (DfES). The DfES publishes Statistics of Education: Teachers in England

and Wales. The National Assembly for Wales (NAfW), including Statistics for Wales, contains data for direct download as spreadsheets (www.wales.

gov.uk/index.htm), and also publishes Statistical Briefs. Data were used from the series represented by the School Teachers' Review Body (STRB) (2000a) and the School Teachers' Review Body Eleventh Report (2002). The UCET website contains summaries of on-going and past research in the area (www.ucet.ac.uk/). The STRB (www.teacherneLgov.uk/ management/payandperformance/pay/teacherspaySTRB/) publishes a

Reconsidering the Indications of a Crisis 25

Statistical Annex as part of their annual report to government on teacher pay and conditions. International data sources: PISA 2000

The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) was designed as a large-scale comparative study of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-old students in 32 countries (OECD 2001a). First conducted in 2000, PISA was repeated in 2003 and is planned to take place every three years subsequently (Adams 2002). At the time of writing, only the complete dataset for PISA 2000 is available. School-level data was collected via the PISA School Questionnaire, completed by the principal, headteacher or head administrator at each institution (OECD 2001b). The dataset includes items relating to headteachers' perceptions of teacher recruitment and retention, and some of the results are presented in Chapter 8. A total of 5,416 schools in 25 OECD countries were included in our analysis. All EU countries were represented, as were nations such as Korea and Japan that are perceived by some commentators as having 'world-class' education (Reynolds and Farrell 1996), and also nations such as New Zealand and the USA where 'crisis accounts' of falling educational standards echo many current concerns of policy-makers in the UK. The two dependent variables presented are 'teacher shortage/ inadequacy' and 'teacher turnover'. Both provide information on the perceptions of headteachers about the extent to which either of these two phenomena 'hindered' the learning of 15-year-old students in their school. For the purpose of the study, a variety of school characteristics were identified to act as independent variables. These included school size, location, student to teacher ratio and the extent to which schools admitted students on the basis of academic ability. International data sources: the United States of America

Each of the 50 American states is required to provide regular updates to the US Department of Education on the progress that each state is making to comply fully with the recent No Child Left Behind legislation. One consequence of this is that a range of school and district performance and demographic data is publicly available both from the US Department of Education and from the individual states (US Department of Education 2005a, 2005b). The data used in Chapter 9 was retrieved from the Department of Education website for our case study states of Wisconsin and California, as well as from the US Department of Education. We use this to explore the characteristics of the teacher workforce for both states, and consider the likelihood that they will be able to comply with No Child Left Behind's requirements for 'highly qualified' teachers by the end of the

26

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

2005/06 academic year. For different states, the quality and scope of publicly available data varies considerably. California maintains a comprehensive database containing district and school-level contextual and performance information that has been collected over several years (California Department of Education 2005a). The data currently available from the Wisconsin website was less wide ranging (Wisconsin Department of Education 2005). Indicators and their limitations

The definitions of terms generally adopted throughout are those used by the UK School Teachers' Review Body (2002), by the DfES for the pupilrteacher ratio and by the TTA for qualifying success. The most important of these definitions are outlined below. The remainder of the section is devoted to exploring some problems raised by these definitions and the data used to operationalize them. Vacancies

'Vacancies' refer to advertised vacancies for full-time teaching appointments of at least one term's duration. Vacancy rates can be expressed as a percentage of teachers in post, including full-time regular teachers in (or on secondment from) maintained schools, plus full-time regular dividedservice, peripatetic, remedial centre and 'miscellaneous' teachers. As all teaching posts must be advertised at some point, high vacancy rates do not, however, necessarily indicate any shortage of teachers, and it is possible for considerable teacher unemployment to coexist with vacant posts. Data on teacher vacancies must, therefore, be examined more closely before it is possible to identify exactly which types of teaching staff are required to address any shortfall. It is important to be aware that an alternative definition of hard-to-fill 'vacancies' is sometimes used. This counts 'vacancies' as posts that have not been filled three months after they were first advertised. This is, perhaps, more in line with the conventional use of the term, and confusion of the two definitions may have led to misinterpretations of the teacher supply situation in the media. In the following chapters, the term 'vacancies' refers to the first kind, unless made explicit. Unfortunately, changes in the ways in which official data on teacher vacancies are reported inhibit the analysis of long-term trends. For example, data on teacher vacancies in maintained secondary schools for 1985 to 1990, published in the Department of Education and Science (DES) Statistical Bulletin, were for England only. Those for 1991 to 1993 were from the Department for Education (DFE) Statistical Bulletin, while those for 1993 onwards were from DfEE First Release, School Teachers' Review Body and

Reconsidering the Indications of a Crisis

27

the DfES Statistics of Education: Teachers in England and Wales. DfEE vacancy

rates for classroom teachers by subject in 1994 exclude sixth-form colleges, whereas later figures include them. Similarly, in 1998 DfEE data on teacher vacancies ceased to distinguish between vacancy rates for single science and combined science. In the academic year 1997/8 a new form (Stats 3) replaced the one previously used (618G) in Wales to collect data on teacher vacancies. Some of the change shown in the data for this year may be an artefact of the change in the instrument used to collect the relevant data, rather than reflecting any real changes. Wastage

'Wastage' is a measure of all teachers leaving full-time service in the publicly maintained sector during a school year. It is important to note, however, that some of these teachers may not actually leave teaching, but will either continue into part-time service or move to a different sector (such as further or higher education or independent schools). Furthermore, there is often confusion between turnover (including resignations and retirement) and wastage (premature departure). Even if we include only those who leave the profession prematurely, excluding those who retire or leave for health reasons, wastage rates alone do not provide an accurate picture of the number of teachers leaving. The DfES/STRB definition includes teachers moving between positions in schools and colleges within the state sector, if that move involves moving between institutions teaching different age ranges of students (e.g. from a primary school to a secondary school). It also includes moves from schools to further and/or higher education colleges and vice versa. In terms of resourcing, such changes in the staffing structure of a state education system would not normally be considered 'wasteful' and so it is important not to conflate 'wastage rates', as technically denned,

with wastage of resources. It should also be noted that, theoretically at least, high 'wastage rates' can exist in a situation where no teachers at all are leaving state education. Turnover

'Turnover' is measured by calculating the proportion of teachers not in fulltime service in the institution in which they were working in the previous academic year. This includes all retirements, resignations, wastage (as denned above) and transfers to other institutions (including those in the same sector). When examining 'turnover' rates within the teaching profession the following considerations must be borne in mind. First, in addition to including all wastage, these figures include resignations of teachers moving to jobs in similar institutions. As movement within any profession is both expected and necessary for its continuation, a high

28

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

'turnover rate' is not necessarily a cause for alarm. Promotions within the profession, for example, often mean a change of institution, and geographic mobility (for whatever reason) also necessitates such movements. So although 'turnover rates', like figures on wastage, include those leaving the profession, high proportions in either category do not necessarily, or simply, translate into teacher loss. The PISA 2000 data, used in Chapter 8, is based on headteachers' reports of whether teacher shortages or turnover had hindered the learning of students in their institution. It is not clear how the respondents were meant to assess this. One interpretation is that the responses represent perceptions of whether a problem with either issue exists in any institution. There are several further limitations to this international dataset, and concerns have been expressed about the extent to which its results can be applied to different educational contexts (Prais 2003). Most notably, the initial institutional response rates varied considerably (Table 2.1). Little reliable Country

Korea Sweden Iceland Austria Russian Federation Italy Finland Spain Portugal Germany France Luxembourg Switzerland Canada Norway Ireland Greece Denmark Japan Australia New Zealand Belgium United Kingdom United States Netherlands

Number of schools (total)

144 154 126 212 239 170 155 180 147 197 156 22 276 1,096 166 136 151 208 135 230 145 120 334 120 93

Initial school response rate ( %)

100 100 100 99 99 98 97 95 95 95 95 93 92 88 86 86 84 84 82 81 78 69 61 56 27

Table 2.1 School response rates to PISA 2000, by country

Reconsidering the Indications of a Crisis 29 information is available regarding the characteristics of those institutions that participated and those that were approached but refused. PupiLteacher ratios The DfES calculate pupihteacher ratios (PTRs) as: 'the full-time equivalent of all the pupils (where a part-time pupil counts as one half) and dividing it by the full-time equivalent of the number of teachers employed (calculated by looking at the number of hours worked by teachers)' (DfES 2002a, p. 7). Outcomes of ITT Differences in the scope and detail of official reports can make tracking the trends in the outcomes of ITT problematic. Recruitment rates and acceptance rates can be very different measurements, because prospective trainees can withdraw after initially accepting an ITT place or can withdraw during training. In addition, while the GTTR gives the number of applications and acceptances, excluding those from the Open University (OU) and SCITTs, the TTA Performance Profiles collect numbers of firstyear undergraduate and PGCE students for England only, but do not include applications to OU PGCE courses and some SCITT courses. Indeed, as ITT applications are updated and revised from month to month, data on the

same topic for the same year may differ, depending on which version is used. In Wales, the Statistical Report from the National Assembly provides information on the numbers of students on full-time ITT courses only, excluding those on part-time courses. This means that alternative sources of information such as from the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales (HEFCW) had to be sought. However, issues of incompatibility were still present. For example, while the English figures provided a breakdown of ITT students by sex and subject, the Welsh figures did not. Individual level variables There were several limitations with the individual student level records we received from the TTA. In particular, these records were not individually identified, which meant that we were unable to use the datasets from different years to trace the progress of individual students. This means that the same student could appear more than once, and so bias our estimates of institutional effectiveness in terms of part-time or undergraduate students. For example, a student who began a three-year ITT course in October 1998 would appear in that year's records as being in the first year of his or her study. That student may have left the course during their second year (when they would not appear on the database anyway, as the records only include

30

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

first and final year students, for a reason unclear to us) and would not be identifiable anyway in the final year's record. We have no idea, therefore, whether that student was successful or not. One possible solution would be to consider the dataset for only one year (such as 2000/01). However, this also leads to problems. In any one year, not all students would be due to complete their course so these would have to be removed. Some students will have commenced their course in a previous year, but the 2000/01 records would not show peers in their same cohort who had not continued to this final year (for whatever reason). Again, using the original dataset would bias our results by making multi-year courses appear more effective with almost no failure or dropout. Ideally, we would have needed to use the previous datasets for as many years as possible to identify students in prior years who 'should' have completed in 2000/01. We were unable to do this because the records were not individually identified (except by teacher number, and this number is, of course, only awarded to those who are successful). We were only able to use the data for the one-year full-time PGCE students, which avoided all of the above problems. Our most detailed, individual-level analysis of ITT omits undergraduate BEd courses, which is not a desirable situation. Despite the compromise, there were still several concerns about missing data. For example, we considered two models based separately on success rates in reaching QTS, and in obtaining a subsequent teaching post. However, the measure for the latter contains many missing values (around 13 per cent not known), and ignoring these cases or treating them as not having a teaching post both seem likely to create considerable bias in the results. As the PGCE is a postgraduate qualification, each student's initial degree classification is potentially a more accurate source of information than students' A-level or other performance. Not all applicants to HE have Alevel qualifications. However, unlike A-level results, there is no system of standardizing degree classification across institutions. This means that we cannot be certain that a first-class degree from institution A is equivalent to a first-class degree from institution B. This makes using degree class as a benchmark for prior attainment problematic. Subjects of study

The different approaches to classifying and reporting individual subjects of study proved problematic when analysing patterns in this area. For example, the DfES statistics for English language teachers include drama, and those for languages include all modern foreign languages but exclude Welsh and Classics. The DfEE Review Body, on the other hand, includes Welsh and Classics. The GTTR's broad classification includes English, Welsh, modern languages and Classics under the umbrella term Languages. While

Reconsidering the Indications of a Crisis 31 the DfEE Review Body includes business studies, computing and home economics under design and technology, it is not clear if this also includes information technology. In the GTTR annual statistical report, design and technology, information technology and computing were treated as three different subjects. While design and technology and home economics were classified under specialist subjects, information technology was classified as a science subject, and business studies as one of the social sciences. For social studies, while the GTTR classify it as a single subject and social sciences as a group of subjects, including business studies, economics, geography and social studies, the TTA Performance Profiles refer to social science/social studies as a separate subject. Analytic approaches

Most of the data used in this book is numeric, while non-numeric data is used to illustrate the views of individuals or the reasons why individuals acted in a certain way. The overall approach could be termed 'new political arithmetic' (Gorard with Taylor 2004). The evidence is generally presented in 'biographical' order, from considering becoming a teacher, through training and employment to retirement. Most of the numeric data represents populations, such as all new teacher trainees in England and Wales in any year, while the remainder comes from a representative partial census in the form of a bespoke survey. Since none of the cases have been selected or allocated at random, traditional statistical approaches based on standard errors are irrelevant (Gorard 2003). In our political arithmetic approach, data are presented as summaries for as many years as possible, and geographically disaggregated where appropriate. The identification of trends, patterns, changes and differences is based on judgement, with the aid of quasi-effect size calculations where needed (Gorard 2006). Some of the datasets were also used for modelling, to help identify patterns within them and the variables that might be linked to the outcomes of educational participation and processes. Most notably, logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise removal of predictor variables was used to predict/explain individual students' intention to be a teacher or not (dichotomous). The model presented in Chapter 3 used all available background variables, students' prior education, the factors reported as influencing their career choice, their perceptions of teaching and their knowledge of financial incentives, as likely predictors. The model is 'hierarchical', entering explanatory variables into the model in life order from birth (e.g. family background) through initial education (e.g. where they lived at age 16) to the present (e.g. subject being studied at university). In this way, each step can only work with the variance left unexplained from previous steps. The final step adds variables for awareness of financial incentives and other recent policies to encourage teacher recruitment.

32

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Other complex models include both logistic regression and multi-level linear regression using the TTA data for all PGCE students over four years. Here we were conducting value-added analyses of success or otherwise in teacher training, both in terms of achieving QTS and a subsequent teaching post. Our purpose was to uncover both the likely determinants of individual success in training, and the extent of the role of the training route or institution in enabling that success. These models are not presented in any detail because, as explained in Chapter 5, the variables held by the TTA about each individual have a minimal relationship to success, and there is no evidence of an institutional impact at all. How do we decide on a teacher shortage?

In its simplest form a teacher shortage is a situation where supply cannot meet demand, and would refer to the number of teachers available against the number of pupils. The problem with such an indicator is the definition of an acceptable PTR. PTRs are subject to manipulation by governments seeking credence for particular policies, and to internal manipulation by school management. Class sizes may fluctuate regardless of whether actual numbers of teachers and pupils increase or not. Changes in teaching methods, the introduction of new curricula, the creation of new posts, changes in funding per pupil, changes in school numbers and changes in the degree of school-based teacher training are all policy measures that have implications for teacher demand and supply. The use of indicators is made even more complex by variations between regions and between schools. There are several important indicators of teacher supply. Establishing whether there is a teacher shortage and how it might be more accurately characterized depends on a considered interpretation of these indicators. The most commonly used measure of teacher shortages is the number of vacant posts expressed as a percentage of the total number of posts (House of Commons 1997a). Figures of rising vacancies have been widely used as evidence of teacher shortage (see Chapter 7). Alternatives include teacher and pupil numbers, recruitment and retention figures, completion rates and quality of PGCE students. According to the NUT (House of Commons 1997b, Appendix 13), further indicators of teacher demand include public perception of the profession, the number of vacancies in schools, the number of applicants to promoted posts, recruitment to initial teacher training courses, vacancies in headteacher posts and the state of the economy. They claim that if every single indicator is negative then there is a teacher shortage. Some might argue that the failure to provide every child with appropriately qualified teachers constitutes a teacher shortage. This definition is problematic because the term 'qualified' is controversial. It is

Reconsidering the Indications of a Crisis 33 not clear whether it refers to academic qualification, experience or skills. Is a person with the required subject qualification but no teaching experience regarded as 'qualified'? Would a person with experience and skills in teaching a particular subject but who does not have the required subject qualification be considered 'qualified'? At present, teachers trained overseas are not automatically entitled to qualified teacher status in the UK. Does this really mean that these teachers are unqualified? We also face a problem here that is seldom acknowledged, but which is very common in social science research (Gorard 2006). The population data we use in this book is of the highest quality available, with complete coverage, for many years, including teachers and non-teachers, and with many and varied individually associated measures of social, economic, educational and family background. However, the categories and indicators used require considerable judgement (so that two researchers would not necessarily code every case in the same way by ethnic group or occupational class, for example). The definitions of indicators and categories tend to change over time, and to have different meanings over place. Even with the high response rates possible with official figures, as many as 20 per cent of cases can be missing, and could bias the results. The combination of these and other 'errors' in the data can then propagate as we conduct our analyses. This means that small differences over time and place are generally not considered important - any difference worthy of note has to be large enough, or sufficiently sustained over time, to overcome the likely errors in the data. We repeat two important points. The problems with the available data do not stem from random selection and so cannot be addressed by traditional techniques such as confidence intervals. Secondly, there is no alternative dataset that we could use to eliminate these problems. Nor is there an alternative dataset available to those commentators cited in Chapter 1 claiming that there is a crisis in teaching supply. The data they use is similar, or often inferior, to that presented here. In fact, many of the datasets used to bolster the crisis account are markedly inferior. In our opinion, the analysis presented here is the most complete and wide-ranging yet conducted.

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ON BECOMING A TEACHER

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3

Deciding to become a teacher

This section comprises three chapters. Our aim here is to describe the trajectory someone follows in order to become a teacher. In Chapters 4 and 5, we will consider the process of training to teach - who starts teacher training and how successful they may be. We begin here by looking at students' views of why they might, or indeed might not, choose to become a teacher in the first place. This chapter is based on our survey of 1,845 higher-education students, and subsequent interviews (See 2005). The aim of this survey was to help us understand why people choose to become a teacher. In addition to considering the perspectives of students who have decided to become teachers, we also contacted those who have no desire to enter the teaching profession. In this, our study is unusual and provides a useful comparison to the views of those already entering or intending to enter teacher training. Most of the existing literature in this area is based on research with prospective and actual teachers, giving no account at all of those people who have considered and rejected teaching as a career or who did not consider teaching at all. Such research is in danger of giving a distorted view of the decision to become a teacher, based in part on retrospective justification for a decision already made. So, in this chapter we investigate why some people become teachers and, equally importantly, why others do not. We consider the influence that demographic and background factors,

the values people attach to a job and individuals' perceptions of teaching have on their career choice-making process. • Earlier background characteristics, such as parental occupation and students' degree classification are able to predict who will, or will not, enter the teaching profession with around 78 per cent accuracy. • While all students were able to identify both positive and negative aspects of a career in teaching, students who then chose to become teachers were more likely to be motivated by intrinsic factors such as job satisfaction and the opportunity to share their knowledge.

38

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

• Students who do not wish to become teachers are more likely to be motivated by extrinsic factors such as salary and job status, and more likely to report having had negative personal experiences of school. • For those already interested in becoming a teacher, their perceptions about teaching and the values they looked for in a career were more important determinants of participation than financial incentives. Financial incentives do appear to have limited impact in attracting students who had already considered the profession. They had little appeal for those who had never seriously considered teaching.

Introduction

Policies to increase teacher supply in the UK have generally proposed that teacher numbers (and perhaps quality) can be increased through better pay and other financial incentives to recruitment (DfEE 1998a). Such measures are largely based on a 'universal' human capital theory of motivation, which may not adequately explain the under-representation in teaching of men and of people from certain social classes and ethnic groups. Evidence from previous studies suggests that peoples' choice of career is, to a large extent, influenced by their socio-economic and cultural background and by a lifelong view of what is 'appropriate' for them (Gorard and Rees 2002). Such social determinants differ from economic and practical motivations in being longer term and, therefore, less amenable to a shortterm technical fix. They have not so far been explored in previous studies on teacher shortages. For these reasons, in this chapter, we examine the influence of socio-economic background, as determined by parents' occupations and educational qualifications, sex, ethnicity and type of school attended, each of which might be regarded as formative of an individual's values and norms. In addition, we include geographical mobility, whether individuals had close family members and friends who are/were teachers, and the extent to which current financial inducements in teacher training had an impact on teacher trainees' decision to go into teaching, in an overall explanatory model. Besides these social determinants, an individual's decision about whether or not to enter teaching may also be influenced by what they value in a job and their perceptions of teaching. According to Kyriacou et al (2002), if we are able to identify those factors that individuals consider to be important in their choice of career, and highlight the features of a teaching career that match these, we might then hope to persuade better-qualified students to consider teaching. Indeed, as Johnson and Birkeland (2003) have noted, an understanding of individuals' experiences in this area is essential, otherwise policy-makers and practitioners will continue to introduce what they believe to be promising recruitment and retention strategies with no

Deciding to Become a Teacher

39

clear evidence of their effect. Once we have some idea of the determinants of becoming a teacher we can begin to consider the likelihood of increasing the supply of teachers overall, improving their quality and remedying any specific shortages. To attract and retain new teachers, a comprehensive strategy that addresses the full range of potential teachers' concerns is required. Such an approach should also be able to target under-represented groups such as men, ethnic minority groups and those in shortage subjects. This involves a consideration of the career choices made by prospective and potential teachers, as well as by those who have rejected the possibility of teaching. The views of the latter are key in acting as a corrective to the majority of relevant research in this area based only on consideration of teachers and potential teachers - for example, Reid and Caudwell (1997), Bloomfield and Selinger (1994), Fraser etal. (1998) and Heafford andjennison (1998). Some studies on teacher supply have been concerned with student teachers' reasons for not taking up teaching posts. These studies focused on the motivations of those who had previously made a tentative decision to become schoolteachers. Few studies have investigated individuals' reasons for not choosing teaching as a career in the first place. Even fewer studies have looked into the barriers to entering teaching (Wellington 1982, Smithers and Hill 1989, Finch 1986). The views of undergraduates who have yet to take up teacher training and who might be attracted by the incentives are usually not sought in research in this area, even by those evaluating policies explicitly aimed at this group (but see Lai et al. 2005). This could easily give a very misleading impression about why individuals do not become teachers. In general, the majority of the educational participation literature is based, for very pragmatic reasons, on studies of existing participants, often in the same institution as the researcher. This can give misleading results about the causes of non-participation (Gorard and Rees 2002). Non-participants in any educational endeavour are, ironically, routinely excluded from research intended to uncover the reasons for their non-participation. The following section describes the findings from our survey and begins by considering the role that background characteristics may play in helping determine why an individual chooses, or does not choose, to become a teacher. Why do some people choose teaching as a career while others do not? We begin with a description of some of the characteristics of the respondents in terms of their academic qualifications, family background and so on, before describing their perceptions of some of the positive and negative aspects of being a teacher. The survey respondents (see Chapter 2) were classified into three groups based on their responses to questions about their career decisions so far:

40

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

• Likely teachers - those who have considered teaching, and still wanted to be teachers, whether they have experienced some initial training or not (550 cases, or 30 per cent of the sample). • Marginal teachers - those who have seriously considered teaching, but have decided not to teach, whether they have experienced some initial training or not (621 cases, or 36 per cent of the sample). • Non-teachers - those who have never really considered teaching, would not want to teach and who, by definition, have not experienced any initial teacher training (674 cases, or 37 per cent of the sample). For simplicity, in the discussion that follows the respondents are divided into two groups: those reporting the firm intention to become a teacher (confirmed teachers), and those who did not (non-teachers). Several differences between the characteristics and attitudes of confirmed teachers and non-teachers emerged from our survey. In general, nonteachers tend to come from better-educated and higher social class family backgrounds. For example, students who were not interested in a career in teaching were slightly more likely to have parents who are or were teachers (31 per cent), compared with those who were intending to teach (27 per cent). In addition, non-teachers were more likely to have mothers who held professional/managerial posts (47 per cent), compared with confirmed teachers (39 per cent), while teachers-to-be were more likely to have fathers from lower supervisory semi-routine or routine occupations (20 per cent, compared to 13 per cent for non-teachers). Our results also show that the parents of students not wishing to pursue a career in teaching were more likely to hold qualifications at NVQ level 3 equivalent or above (such as two A-levels), than the parents of intending teachers. More female students (39 per cent) expressed an interest in teaching than their male counterparts (33 per cent). Additionally, teachers were generally less well-qualified than their peers (Table 3.1). For example, 57 per cent of those who indicated an interest in teaching achieved UCAS tariff point scores of below 280, compared to only 38 per cent of non-teachers. Prospective teachers were also more likely to have, or to expect to have, slightly lower degree results. For example, 58 per cent of likely teachers had achieved or expected to achieve a 2:i or above, compared with 64 per cent UCAS tariff point scores (old point system) Confirmed teacher

0-280 (0-22) 281-320 (23-6) 321-620 (27-51) Number of cases

57 22 21 370

Non-teacher

38 30 33 699

Overall

44 27 29 1,069

Table 3.1 Percentage of teachers and non-teachers, by UCAS tariff point scores

Deciding to Become a Teacher

41

of non-teachers (although this difference is small in relation to the likely bias caused by sampling and measurement error). In general, most students were able to suggest several positive features of a career in teaching, regardless of whether they themselves intended to become teachers at this stage or not. The opportunity to use their academic subject knowledge (83 per cent), a continuing interest in their undergraduate subject (71 per cent) and the chance to 'give something back' to society (84 per cent) were considered to be important positive features of a career in teaching by all respondents. In our study, non-teachers were between three and four times as likely as prospective teachers to view all of the above factors as being true of teaching as a career but, at the same time, felt these things to be irrelevant to them. It was clear that they wanted something else from their future career. In contrast, those reporting to be seriously considering teaching were twice as likely to report that the above factors were very important in helping form their career choice. These results differ somewhat from previous large studies of attitudes to teaching, perhaps because they reflect the views of a wider range of students including those definitely not wishing to become teachers. For example, Hobson et aVs (2004) survey of 4,393 trainee teachers identified 'working with young people' as an appealing feature of a teaching career (although different reasons were given for different routes through training). In the same way, most students were able to suggest several rather negative aspects of a career in teaching, again, regardless of whether they themselves intended to become teachers at this stage or not. Among these were concerns about poor pupil discipline (80 per cent), the heavy workload (84 per cent), poor pay (75 per cent) and a generally unrewarding career structure (80 per cent). Interestingly, and in contrast to the pattern for the reported positive aspects of teaching, some of these negative aspects were more likely to be reported by those who were seriously considering a career in teaching. For example, 83 per cent of confirmed teachers were concerned about poor pupil discipline, 95 per cent about the heavy workload and 94 per cent thought that the career structure was unrewarding. However, respondents included many already on teacher training courses who had teaching practice experience; this may at least partly explain their more negative, indeed perhaps more realistic, perceptions of teaching. Nevertheless, in general, these potentially negative aspects of teaching were not, in themselves, detractors. For example, there was no clear difference between confirmed teachers and others in their reporting of poor pay conditions. While 82 per cent of respondents felt that teacher salaries were not comparable to those in 'other professions', this factor was more important for those not intending to teach (where 42 per cent rated pay as a very important consideration) than for likely teachers (where only 21 per cent rated pay as very important). Clearly, these judgements are being made post hoc to some extent, but there is a suggestion that perceptions

42

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

of poor teacher pay put some people off teaching while at the same time not deterring others who may have other, more intrinsic, motivations for becoming a teacher. Finally, teachers' working conditions were considered unattractive by 82 per cent of all respondents, while teaching was seen as a high status profession by only 33 per cent. There were no clear differences here between the perceptions of those intending to become a teacher and those who did not. Several other aspects of teaching as a career were clearly differentiated in terms of the intention of respondents to teach or not. Those likely to become teachers more often reported that teaching offered good career prospects (63 per cent compared with 25 per cent of non-teachers), that the introduction of performance-related pay now meant better promotion opportunities (42 per cent compared with 24 per cent of non-teachers) and that teaching offered enough stimulus to ambition (29 per cent compared with 7 per cent of non-teachers). Non-teachers, on the other hand, were more likely to believe that teaching was a 'dead end' job (13 per cent compared with 3 per cent of likely teachers), with little scope for personal initiative (17 per cent compared with 6 per cent of likely teachers) and little intellectual stimulation (22 per cent compared with 5 per cent of likely teachers). Perhaps, most interestingly, those who did not want to teach were nearly five times more likely to report that their own experience as a pupil had left them with a negative perception of teaching (33 per cent compared with 7 per cent for likely teachers). In summary, the responses to our survey suggest an emerging profile of students who were likely to choose to become teachers. For example, compared with their non-teacher peers, these students had less well-qualified parents who were less likely to hold professional/managerial posts, and were themselves more likely to have lower UCAS entry scores and achieve, or expect to achieve, lower first-degree classifications. While all students were able to identify both positive and negative aspects of a career in teaching, prospective teachers were less likely to be deterred from teaching by concerns over poor pay or fears that teaching offered little intellectual stimulus. These likely teachers appeared to have had more positive personal experiences of being pupils at school and saw teaching as affording good career prospects and sufficient scope for personal initiative and ambition. A teaching trajectory?

To help explain the 'trajectory' that individuals follow in making their career decision, a logistic regression analysis was used to select the characteristics that were strongly related to students' choices to become a teacher. In this model, groups of variables were entered in three distinct phases (see Chapter 2). The first phase looked at the role of background factors in helping determine whether one chooses to become a teacher or not. The

43

Deciding to Become a Teacher

second examined the extent to which other factors, such as job satisfaction or length of holidays, could explain the likelihood of one deciding to teach. The third added variables related to financial incentives to becoming a teacher. Each phase is described in turn. Background characteristics and the decision to go into teaching

The analysis was robust in revealing that the background characteristics that explain most of the differences between groups were an individual's sex, ethnicity, academic achievements and mother's education background (Table 3.2). The coefficients in the table give an indication of how likely someone is to be a teacher or a non-teacher. The patterns shown in this phase reflect those identified in the descriptive analysis of the survey that were described in the preceding section. For example, a male was, ceteris paribus, only 10 per cent as likely as a female to be a confirmed teacher rather than a non-teacher, and those who described themselves as white were almost twice (1.8 times) as likely as those who described themselves as non-white to be teachers than non-teachers. Background characteristics

Coefficients

Sex • Male • Female

0.1 -

Ethnicity • White • Non-white

1.8 -

Mother's qualifications • No qualification • O-level • A-level • Degree and higher • Don't know & no response

1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 -

Entry • • • •

qualification A-level A-level and vocational Access Unclassifiable

1.6 0.8 0.9 -

Degree result • 2:i and above • 2:ii and below • Don't know and no response

2.0 3.9 —

Table 3.2 Background characteristics differing between teachers and others

44

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Those whose mothers have an A-level equivalent or higher qualification were less likely (0.8) to become teachers than those whose mothers' qualifications were unknown. In general, those with less-educated parents were more likely to choose teaching as a career. Those gaining or expecting a degree graded at 2:ii or below are more likely to become teachers than either those with a 2:i or above or those for whom no degree result is known. While a degree is now almost a requirement for teacher status, it is generally the least qualified of those eligible who are most likely to become teachers. Analysis of other demographic characteristics also showed that a student's decision whether to teach or not was related to their subject of study at university. For example, social science students were two and a half times more likely than science and mathematics students to choose teaching as a career. Vocational students in courses other than education were, unsurprisingly, the least likely to have considered teaching. This finding is consistent with that of the Institute for Employment Studies, which found that those in financial subjects, economics, science or law had a lower propensity to enter teaching (House of Commons 1997b, Appendix 5). When all of the variables retained in this phase are considered, the percentage of variation between confirmed and non-teachers explained by the model is 78 per cent (compared to a figure of around 55 per cent by chance). This means that knowing only the five values from Table 3.2, we could 'predict' whether any individual in the eligible group (higher education students) was intending to be a teacher or not with 78 per cent accuracy. Even though the model will fit our data better than any future data, this is a remarkably high figure based only on a student's sex, ethnicity, mother's education and own qualification and degree result. Career choice factors and the decision to go into teaching

Career choice factors refer to those characteristics people look for in a job, and their perceptions of teaching as a career. These were withheld from our model in the first phase because they provide a current snapshot rather than a reliable retrospective account, and because the causal model linking choice factors and revealed choice is unclear. The second logistic regression analysis shows that we can predict/explain with 91 per cent accuracy who are likely to be teachers once these career choice factors are included in the model. Table 3.3 lists the career choice factors that explained any differences between those wanting to teach and those who did not. The factors are presented in descending order beginning with those that explained the most difference between confirmed teachers and non-teachers. These factors were the chance to share knowledge, job satisfaction, length of holidays and the chance to continue their interest in their subject. The coefficient for 'chance to share knowledge' tells us that those who indicated

Deciding to Become a Teacher 45 that this factor was quite important in their decision about whether or not to teach, were 3.4 times more likely to want to be teachers than those who did not think it was important. Similarly, those who indicated that the 'chance to share knowledge' was very important were 3.42 or nearly 12 times more likely to be teachers than those who thought it was not. Table 3.3 shows that confirmed teachers differed from non-teachers in the values they attached to their job. While confirmed teachers were more likely to report being motivated by intrinsic factors, such as job satisfaction, the desire to share knowledge and continuing their interest in their subject, non-teachers were more likely to value extrinsic factors such as salary, good working conditions, job status, promotion opportunities and intellectual stimulation. Other factors motivating confirmed teachers included job security and the length of holidays. These differences suggest that financial incentives, if properly applied, might have persuaded some non-teachers to consider teaching as a career. Analysis by subject group indicates that social science students and teacher trainees were more likely than mathematics, science and 'other' vocational students (such as law and business studies students) to consider intrinsic factors to be very important motivators for a career in teaching. Additionally, female students, preponderant in these subjects, were more likely than male students to regard these intrinsic factors as being important in influencing their career choice. Mathematics, science and vocational students, on the other hand, were more likely than teacher trainees and social science students to regard extrinsic motivations, such as j o b status and public perception of job and salary, as being very important. This might explain why students from some subject groups were less likely to want to teach, and this is consistent with Smithers and Hill's (1989) study which found that mathematics and science students were less likely to regard such Factors influencing career choice

Chance to share knowledge Job satisfaction Length of holidays Chance to continue interest in own subject Job security Salary Working conditions Status of job Promotion opportunities Intellectual stimulation.

Coefficients

3.4 3.1 2.3 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

Note, these choice factors were rated in importance on scale from 1 to 3 (most important) Table 3.3 Choice factor differences between teachers and others

46

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

intrinsic motivation as important in their career decision. They were also more likely to perceive teaching as offering intrinsic rewards and personoriented satisfaction than extrinsic reward. Mixed science and arts students, on the other hand, were more likely to be people-oriented, hence more likely to be attracted to teaching. There were no differences between white and non-white students. The three important perceptions of teaching that explained most of the differences between confirmed teachers and non-teachers were job satisfaction, teachers' workload and career prospects (Table 3.4). Those who perceived teaching to be rewarding were 4.5 times as likely to be confirmed teachers as those who did not know or did not answer, and 4.52 or more than 20 times as likely as those who disagreed with the statement. Therefore, we might conclude that teaching appealed to confirmed teachers because they believed that teaching could offer them the values they looked for in a job. For example, confirmed teachers were more likely to perceive teaching as a rewarding career than their non-teacher counterparts. They tended to have a more positive perception of teaching and were more likely to perceive teaching as offering job security, good career prospects and promotion opportunities. They were also more likely to agree that teaching would offer the intellectual stimulation that they looked for in a job. While there is a danger of an element of tautology creeping into the analysis here, the same pattern also appears when the model is run with only that subsample of undergraduates who have yet to make an explicit choice by

Factors influencing career choice

Teaching is rewarding Teachers' workload is heavy Teaching has good career prospects Teaching offers greater job security Teaching allows use of academic knowledge Teachers are underpaid Better opportunities for promotion in teaching today Teaching is lifestyle choice Teaching is no longer a 9-5 job Teachers' salaries are comparable Teaching is high-status profession Teaching does not offer enough intellectual stimulation Own experience in school gives negative perception

Coefficients

4.5 3.5 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4

Note: these choice factors were rated in level of agreement on a scale from 1 to 3 representing disagree to agree. Table 3.4 Perceptions of teaching which explain differences in career choice

Deciding to Become a Teacher

47

entering teacher training, but who still express a firm intention of becoming a teacher. Teacher trainees and social science students were the most likely to have a positive perception of teaching, while mathematics, science and 'other' vocational students were the least likely. For example, mathematics, science and other vocational students were more likely than teacher trainees to perceive teaching as lacking in career prospects and promotion opportunities, and to be a 'dead-end'job. Mathematics and science students were also more likely than teacher trainees to report that teaching did not offer enough intellectual stimulation or stimulus to ambition. In general, confirmed teachers tended to have had a positive experience of school while those who reported having a negative perception of school, as a result of their own experiences, were less likely to want to teach. In all, teaching did not appeal to non-teachers because they were less likely to perceive it as offering them the things they looked for in a job. Some negative perceptions, however, did not necessarily deter those who were interested in teaching. Confirmed teachers were, in fact, more likely than others to agree that teachers' workload was heavy and that teachers were underpaid. However, if negative perceptions of teaching involved matters that were important to individuals' career decisions, then they could pose an important barrier to entering the profession. For example, nonteachers were more likely to rate career prospects and promotion opportunities as being very important in their career choice, but were less likely to believe that teaching could offer these. A majority of students agreed that teachers were underpaid and only 35 per cent saw teaching as a high-status job, but non-teachers were more likely to rate these factors as very important in the career choice. This suggests that negative perception of teachers' pay and their job status might not deter those who were committed to teaching but was a deterrent to those who did not wish to teach. Using these reported perceptions of teaching as predictor variables, the accuracy of our model rises from 78 to 91 per cent. Financial incentives to teaching

Students were also asked about their awareness of, and the importance of, financial incentives for teaching, such as training bursaries and golden 'hellos', when deciding upon a career. When their responses were entered into the logistic regression model, the accuracy of predicting who were likely to be teachers and non-teachers only increased from 91 to 92 per cent. This shows that confirmed teachers were, unsurprisingly, more aware of financial incentives affecting their probable career path. But it also suggests that financial incentives do not dramatically change individual career plans, once earlier predispositions are taken into account. As determinants of

48

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Category Likely Marginal Non-teacher teacher teacher

Offer of training salaries Promise of shortage subject bursaries Exemption of tuition fees 'Golden handcuff deal

78 40 75 32

78 54 76 60

36 24 36 33

Table 3.5 Percentage reporting the influence of financial incentives on their choice of career career choice, financial incentives were not as important as the values people attached to a job and their perceptions of teaching. Indeed, they did not appear to have much influence in persuading non-teachers into teaching these were people who had already made up their minds about their career paths and would be unlikely to be persuaded otherwise. Those who reported that they were most likely to be persuaded by these incentives were the marginal teachers - those who had seriously considered teaching, but decided not to teach (see above and Table 3.5). Two incentives that were likely to influence people's career choice were the offer of training salaries and exemption from fees. Shortage subject bursaries (SSBs) appeared to be the least effective mainly because they apply only to a subset of cases. However, SSBs and exemption from fees did not even seem to be effective in persuading mathematics and science students into teaching. This group of students were the most likely to be influenced by the 'golden handcuff deal and the least likely to be influenced by the general offer of training grants. There were no differences in the reaction to financial incentives by male and female students. Exemption of fees appeared to be the most effective in influencing the career decisions of non-white students. These findings have (sometimes negative) implications for policies to increase ITT recruitment of ethnic minorities and those in shortage subjects. Training grants and SSBs were the two incentives that were the most familiar to students. While training salaries made it easier for some students to leave their current job, it certainly did not act as a 'carrot' to those who had not considered teaching before. Many of the students involved in this study had applied for courses before the schemes were announced, while others suggested that they would have gone into training anyway, though much later, if financial circumstances would have allowed. This point was clearly illustrated by PGCE students in the focus group interviews. English students: Anna:

I umm . . . I mean the thing is because I applied really early on the course really really early on and I

Deciding to Become a Teacher

Michelle:

Nina:

Hannah:

Jemma: Nicola:

49

knew that I wanted to do it, and I'd already taken a year to work to try to save some money up and so actually it's a surprise when the training salaries were announced. Like me I applied before the salary was introduced. I am like Anna, I applied to do the course and, and was accepted on the course before the training salary was announced so it was a nice surprise - and exactly the same I didn't entirely anticipate how much it probably would cost to do it, and I'm living at home. I mean I'm actually not even paying rent but I'm driving a car everyday and you know, so the little expense I didn't even anticipate before. I think because I sort of applied late on and I hadn't really thought about the training salary didn't really you know haven't been keeping up with that so I wasn't sure, but I guess I just knew that because it's what I really wanted to do that I would have the support of my parents I guess so I knew that I'd be able to struggle through this with my parents. Just being in that lucky situation and you know . . . I had the promise of that support from my mum and dad as well which because I didn't know when I was going to get this training salary because I live in the Isle of Man and they have different rules and everything, but I was just so relieved when I did . . . I would have just done it a lot later. I would have done it like 10 years down the line if they haven't offered the salary. I would have done it later as well. (Agreement from Jemma and Edward.)

History students: Nick: Anthony: Nick: Tom: Andy:

I suppose the question to ask about our motivation is which of us was motivated by the £6,000 grant. I personally wasn't. I wasn't because I applied before. In retrospect, the same, I didn't realise when I applied because I want to teach, but now knowing how much it cost. . . Same here. I applied before. It didn't attract me, I only come in before . . .

50

Charlotte:

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

I probably would perhaps have waited for two or three years until my children are older and I wouldn't need to pay childcare.

The mathematics students that were interviewed had also applied before the policy came into place, and for some it did make it easier for them to take up training: Marnie: Toby: Fran:

Interviewer:

I applied before. So did I. (There was general agreement - students nodding their heads.) I was going to apply about three or four years ago. I actually got the application form, decided where I was going to apply to and I was earning about £14,000 at that time, not a huge amount of money but then the grant that I would have got for doing the PGCE was £1,000 and I thought that was stupid, I'm going to run into so much debt, what's the point, you know, I'll put it off and I'll try something else. So I tried another couple of jobs umm, and then when I decided that I was going to reapply definitely at the time they said you'd get £2,500 and then when they say you'll get £6,000 it all coincided with me applying, I said great really good, really good. So you had already made the decision even before these policies came into being, but that policy did help you?

Fran and Catherine: Oh yeah . . . With regard to financial incentives, 84 per cent of students who responded to the survey were aware of the offer of training grants. Of those going into teaching, compared with 47 per cent of those not going into teaching, 75 per cent were aware of the existence of SSBs. Approximately 31 per cent of all students were aware of the 'golden handcuff deal, but interestingly only 28 per cent of PGCE students had heard of this incentive. While, in the view of some prospective teachers, 'if the financial help available was made clearer and more readily available, more people may be interested in teaching as a career', the offer of training salaries, SSBs and the exemption from fees appeared to be less likely to have an influence on those who had decided that they did not want to teach. For example, while 91 per cent of intending teachers indicated that the offer of training salaries

Deciding to Become a Teacher 51 was likely to influence their career decision, this was true for only 45 per cent of non-teachers. For SSBs, the proportion of students influenced favourably by the scheme was 56 per cent among intending teachers and 33 per cent for non-teachers. Part of the reason for the relatively low numbers here, compared with the responses for teacher training grants is that the SSB, by definition, applies only to students training to teach in shortage subject areas. Exemption from fees was reported to have a big influence on career decision-making for 87 per cent of those intending to become teachers, while only 46 per cent of non-teachers indicated that the exemption of fees might influence their career choice. This suggests that those who are not going into teaching have already made their career plans, so the offer of financial incentives is less likely to make a difference to their decision. However, 62 per cent of undergraduates believed that the offer of training salaries could make a difference to their career decision. Approximately the same proportion of undergraduates also indicated that the exemption from fees in teacher training might have an influence on their career choice. This suggests that financial incentives may persuade slightly more than half of the student population in the sample to go into teacher training, but are more effective for those who already have an interest in teaching as a career. Lack of publicity regarding these incentives was a major issue. Some comments made by students with regards to these incentives included: There should be more publicity if the incentives were to be effective. Many of us have not heard of these incentives at all. We are not aware of their existence. 2nd-year Language and Communication student I have considered teaching in the secondary sector but still undecided whether to go into teaching or not. The reason for my indecision is the lack of information available. I don't have any clue of what to do. 2nd-year Accountancy student This was part of a more general complaint about lack of information on teaching as a potential career: Throughout my degree course, no one actually came to persuade us to go into teaching. 3rd-year Law student

52

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

I am interested in teaching but not sure how to get into it, whether my law degree is enough, and what kind of qualifications I would need. 3rd-year Law student Had no information about teaching, rather get a job. 3rd-year Accountancy student Have not been given any information regarding being teacher. 3rd-year Maths student There also seemed to be some confusion over the nature of these incentives as illustrated by the following: Although financial incentives exist, perception of hard/impossible to obtain any of them at all. Only very few people got any money. 2nd-year Maths student I am interested in teaching but because financial incentives are not offered to FE training, I could not afford to take it up. 3rd-year Social Policy student In Wales, where this last student was based, FE teacher trainees were given the training grants at that time. While the role of financial incentives in encouraging prospective teachers into the profession has received widespread coverage, the results from our study suggest that as determinants of career choice, financial incentives may not be as important in attracting people to teaching as the perceptions people already hold about teaching and the values that they attach to a job. Where financial incentives did appear to be effective was in encouraging students who had considered but perhaps rejected teaching as a career - the confirmed and the marginal teachers - rather than in persuading those with little interest in becoming a teacher to join the profession. Conclusion Our regression analysis shows that early characteristics are able to 'predict' whether people are likely to go into teaching or not with at least 75 per cent accuracy. Adding those factors associated with their initial schooling such as the type of school they go to and their university entrance qualifications only increases the prediction accuracy to over 76 per cent (i.e. 76 per cent of cases are allocated to either the teacher or non-teacher group, simply on the basis of their background). When variables associated with their current circumstances, such as the degree results they achieved or expect to achieve,

Deciding to Become a Teacher

53

where they live now and their geographical mobility in terms of the number of moves they have made since birth were included, the accuracy of prediction increases to over 78 per cent. However, when factors associated with their perceptions of teaching were added, this rises to 91 per cent. By including the impact of financial incentives in teacher training, the accuracy of predictions goes up to 92 per cent. This is an important finding, indicating how important early factors are in determining the likelihood of people going into teaching. Other important variables were the factors influencing students' career choice and their perceptions of teaching. Financial incentives, on the other hand, have relatively little influence (in this initial life model) on whether people choose to go into teaching or not. The chapter concludes that the key determinants of an individual's likelihood to teach are their family background, the factors they value in a job and their perceptions of teaching. Financial incentives, although effective in getting those already interested in teaching to take up training, are limited in their appeal. Those who were committed to teaching were more likely to be motivated by intrinsic rewards such as job satisfaction and the opportunities to share their knowledge. Those who had never seriously considered teaching, on the other hand, were more likely to be motivated by extrinsic rewards, such as salary, and to report having had a negative personal experience of school. Negative perceptions of teachers' pay and their job status did not appear to deter those who were committed to teaching but was a potential deterrent to those who had no inclination to teach. In the following chapter, we continue our biography of those who do choose to teach by considering the impact of teacher training programmes.

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4

Who enters teacher training?

Introduction

As explained in Chapter 1, part of the concern about teacher numbers relates to the training process and the loss of potential teachers before, during and after their training. Changes over time in teacher training recruitment figures certainly have implications for teacher supply, since intake into ITT is the most important source of new teachers, and some commentators have cited falling enrolments in ITT as evidence of the teacher supply crisis (Slater 2000a). This chapter uses the secondary datasets described in Chapter 2, including the individual records of all postgraduate trainees in England from 1998 to 2001, to illustrate trends in the number and type of trainee teachers. It follows on from the last chapter by showing who actually applies for teacher training, and who is accepted. The following chapter considers the success of these teacher trainees, both in terms of obtaining a teaching qualification and a subsequent teaching post. • In 2003/04 recruitment to ITT in England and Wales was at its highest ever recorded level. The quality of postgraduate trainees was high, with the majority holding an upper second or first class degree. • Teacher training was an increasingly popular option for graduates, and nearly half of all applicants to postgraduate ITT were rejected. The number of people considering teaching as a career was not the major problem with teacher supply. • There was a relatively small pool of maths and science graduates. A larger proportion of these enter teaching than might be expected, but the supply of such graduates was either decreasing or not rising fast enough to meet the demands of the labour market.

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Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

The number of trainees

Although there are a growing number of alternative sources of teacher supply, such as the Employment Based Route, SCITTs or Graduate Teacher Programme, the numbers involved in these schemes were small when we conducted our analyses and at time of writing, and were concentrated in the primary school sector. Over 98 per cent of the supply of home-qualified teachers to the maintained secondary sector in England and Wales, where the shortage appears most marked, passed through the traditional undergraduate BEd and postgraduate PGCE ITT courses (DfEE 2001a). In England, overall annual recruitment to secondary ITT increased from 8,919 entrants in 1990/1 to 15,509 in 1994/5 and then to 15,970 in 1997/8 (DfEE, 2001b). Thereafter, it fell to 13,870 in 1999/2000 before rising to 18,300 in 2003/04. There are now more recruits than ever before. In Wales, recruitment fell very slightly from 898 in 1994/5 to 878 in 1996/7. Over the following four years, in contrast to the situation in England, secondary recruitment in Wales rose year on year to 1,160 in 2000/01. It remained almost static for a year (1,140 in 2001/02) before rising to 1,200 in 2003/04, again the highest ever level. We consider later some of the reasons for these fluctuations, which are more closely related to the number of training places on offer than to either the number of applicants or the number of teachers that are needed.

Source: HESA

Figure 4.1 First year students on ITT courses by sector, Wales, 1996/7 to 2000/01

Who Enters Teacher Training?

57

Enrolments on primary ITT courses have consistently outnumbered those on secondary courses but the trend over a four-year period in Wales has been of convergence (Figure 4.1). In 1996/ 7 secondary trainees made up less than 39 per cent of all ITT enrolments but by 2000/01 this had increased to nearly half (48 per cent) of all new trainees. Overall recruitment to training for both sectors combined has grown steadily since 1997, and is now at its highest recorded level. Figure 4.2 shows ITT enrolments in Wales for the academic years 1994/5 to 2000/01, separated into the two main routes - postgraduate (PGCE) and undergraduate (BEd). During this period the overall number of enrolments started to fall in 1997, reached its lowest point of 2,180 in 1998/9 and then rose to 2,360 in 2000/01. However, the concurrent increase in PGCE and decrease in first-degree enrolments meant that the proportionate difference between these two routes changed. Whilst in 1994/5 there were 950 enrolments on first-degree ITT courses and 1,330 on PGCEs, in 2000/01 there were 1,530 of the latter and only 830 of the former. Thus, first-degree students fell from making up 42 per cent to 35 per cent of all ITT enrolments over the period observed. Again, the reasons for this trend towards training to teach via PGCE courses, discussed below, relate to the availability of training places rather than applicants. In England, the number of students following the PGCE route increased substantially in 2001 (from 18,257 in 2000 to 21,827 in 2001). The main reason for this increase appears to be the introduction of a new initiative,

Source: NAfW/HESA Figure 4.2 Enrolments on ITT by course type, Wales, 1994/5 to 2000/01

58

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

the Employment Based Route (EBR). This route was not available prior to 2001, and attracted 2,350 students in its first year. Between 1995 and 2001 secondary ITT recruitment in England and Wales increased for most specialist curriculum subjects (Figure 4.3). Technology, English and geography made impressive gains in recruitment over this period but numbers for maths, science and modern languages declined. Although there was an increase in ITT recruitment in maths and science between 2000 and 2001, numbers were still below the 1995 levels. Since all sciences are grouped as one subject, the decrease in physics and chemistry may be masked to some extent by a healthier situation for biology. The problem was greater in England than it was in Wales. From 1999/2000 to 2000/01, enrolment increased or remained constant in most areas of the curriculum in Wales and all shortage subjects either increased or maintained their recruitment levels. The only exceptions were the relatively minor (in numerical terms) subjects of drama and catering, both of which experienced decreased enrolments. Ignoring the growth of the new SCITT and EBRs, the proportions of students attending different types of training institution have remained similar over time. For PGCE students, perhaps the most pronounced trend is a reduction in the overall proportion attending the highest research rated institutions. Institutions with RAE 2001 ratings of 4, 5 or 5* trained 45 per cent of PGCE students in 1998 and 1999 but only 36 per cent by 2001. The proportion of trainees based at departments with RAE ratings of 3a and 3b

Source: School Teachers' Review Body (1999, 2000a, 2000b, 2001, 2002) Figure 4.3 ITT recruitment in England and Wales (1995 and 2001)

Who Enters Teacher Training? 59

Institution

1998

RAE (4-5*) RAE (3a and 3b) RAE (1,2 or not submitted) SCITTS EBR

45 33 18 4

1999

2000

2001

45 34 17 5

41 38 16 6

36 35 14 5 11

Source: TTA

Table 4.1 Percentage of students on PGCE courses, according to institution's RAE rating, 1998-2001 fluctuated from 33 per cent to 38 per cent between 1998 and 2001, whilst there was a steady decline in the number and proportion of students attending institutions with the lowest research ratings. Of those students following a course based in HE, the vast majority do so in institutions with a nationally or internationally excellent track record of research in education. This proportion remains very similar over the four years presented here. Teacher training is an increasingly popular option for graduates. Table 4.2 shows a rising trend of applications for PGCE courses in the UK, with a growth of over 26 per cent over the period 1994 to 2001. This suggests that the major problem of teacher supply is not the number of people considering teaching as a career, an issue discussed in the previous chapter. Nor, as we show in future chapters, is the problem largely one of teachers leaving their posts for whatever reason. The principal current 'wastage' is

of initial applicants, with nearly half of all applications for postgraduate teacher training being rejected. In 2001,18,672 applicants were denied places on postgraduate ITT in the UK, representing 46 per cent of all applicants and, as such, a very large number of potential teachers. Unless nearly half of all applicants are genuinely unsuitable for training (in which case there may be a problem with the application guidelines) this represents an obvious area for growth (if required). If even a proportion of these unsuccessful applicants are suitable in terms of any absolute criteria, then any existing problems of

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Applications 32,389 33,831 33,920 33,612 31,555 32,914 36,065 40,895 Acceptances 17,733 17,209 18,332 19,297 18,394 19,007 21,230 22,223 % acceptances 55 51 54 57 58 58 59 54 Source: Adapted from Graduate Teacher Training Registry (2001, 2002) Table 4.2 Percentage of accepted applicants, UK, 1994-2001

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Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

teacher supply stem largely from the number of places available for training rather than any wider lack of interest in training. Because of the absence of suitably disaggregated data, an analysis of applications and acceptance at the subject level could not be prepared. Such analyses might well reveal that the problem is one of over-application in some popular subject areas, but this situation should not be assumed before a proper investigation is conducted. Additionally, no data were available on the number of unsuccessful applicants who reapply (either to the same or different institutions). What is evident from the data that are available, however, is that a large number of individuals who are interested in training to teach are being denied the opportunity to do so. In a field where 'crises' in recruitment are often identified, this appears an odd situation indeed. Despite the high proportion of unsuccessful applicants, the number of students enrolled on postgraduate teacher training courses actually rose by over 25 per cent between 1994 and 2001. While the proportion of applicants accepted each year varied between 51 and 59 per cent, acceptances rose gradually in absolute terms. As can be seen in Table 4.2, the increases neither occurred every year nor were of similar magnitudes, but a general increase was evident over the seven-year period. The fact that the number of acceptances fluctuates and does not always appear to follow a clear trend year on year is almost certainly because it largely reflects the number of places made available by a centrally administered system of targets. Surprisingly, it has little or no relationship to either the number or the quality of applicants. The influence of targets

The numbers for ITT recruitment alone, however, do not show whether teacher supply can meet demand. It is necessary to look also at the extent to which governments' targets are met (House of Commons 1997a, para 13), using these targets as an indication of demand. The formula used for setting targets is discussed below, prior to an examination of the extent to which the targets have been met. The Department for Education and Employment (DfEE, as it then was) published an explanatory paper on the model and assumptions they used in setting targets (DfEE 1998b). Targets were based largely on demographic projections of the likely number of schools and pupils; according to the DfEE 'the number of teachers needed, minus the number in post and those known to be returning to teaching, will give the number to be trained nationally'. However, according to earlier accounts from the same government department, the demand for teachers was only partly based on a target ratio of pupils to teachers (DES 1972), and partly on the number of teachers that could be afforded (DES 1983).

Who Enters Teacher Training?

61

Important questions remain, therefore, about how ITT intake targets were actually set. There have been suggestions that targets were based solely upon how many new teachers could be afforded, rather than on a realistic prediction of demand (House of Commons 1997a, 1997b) but other plausible explanations have also been proposed. A considerable reduction of targets in 1996 and 1997, even in the face of rising pupil numbers, was seen by some as indicative of the lack of government confidence in being able to increase the number of teachers, with the target being 'held down by the anticipated difficulty of meeting it' (Smithers and Robinson 2000a, p. 6). This reduction may also have represented an effort to undo a 'mistake' made in 1995 when there was an unexplained, and maybe unwarranted, upward revision of targets (House of Commons 1997a, para 15). The indicative targets for 1997, issued in 1994, appeared to be in line with the long-term trend, and if the long-term projection for 1997 had been considered when targets were set for 1995, there might not have been the controversial reductions in the following two years. The reduction in targets may have been, therefore, not so much an indication of the difficulty in recruiting but an attempt to bring targets back into line with long-term projections. In several subjects, including maths, science and technology, the intake targets for ITT were reduced even further after 1997/98 (Figure 4.4). The

Sources: Intake targets - DfEE and NAfW Figure 4.4 ITT intake targets for maths, science and technology, England and Wales, 1997/8 to 2000/01

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Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

science target fell from around 3,500 in 1995 to just over 3,000 in 1996 to nearly 2,500 by 1999. The technology target also declined from a high of nearly 2,500 in 1995 to nearly 2,000 by 2001. For maths the target was reduced from 2,300 in 1995 to just under 1,700 in 1997 rising back to 2,000 by 2001. In 1997, despite the huge reduction in maths, for example, only 63 per cent of the target was met. What is strange about the reductions in intake targets in these years is that they were implemented against the backdrop of an increasing student population in secondary schools, rising pupil:teacher ratios and increased teacher vacancies. The number of full-time equivalent (FTE) pupils in secondary maintained schools in England and Wales had risen from 3.24 million in 1997 to 3.5 million in 2002 (School Teachers' Review Body 2002). DfEE and Welsh Office projections showed then that the number was likely to increase to 3.56 million by the year 2005 (School Teachers' Review Body 2001). From 2001-02 to 2003-04 recruitment showed significant improvement over the previous academic years. All subjects showed an increase in numbers recruited, with the exception of English, drama and Welsh (School Teachers' Review Body 2002, 2004). However, for most subjects the intake was still below target, despite the introduction of new financial incentives such as training grants and shortage bursary schemes. In fact, even though the targets for specific shortage subjects had been reduced, targets in these areas have not been met in any of the subsequent years. While targets are being met, and sometimes substantially exceeded for recruitment to English,

Source: School Teachers' Review Body (2004) Figure 4.5 ITT intake targets and recruitment, 2003-04

Who Enters Teacher Training? 63

history, geography, PE and art, there is a considerable shortfall in maths, science, modern languages, RE, technology and, to a lesser extent, music (Figure 4.5). These figures provide some backing for the notion that the targets in these subjects were reduced not because of lack of demand but because there was no way that they could have been met. In Wales, enrolment on first-degree ITT courses (BEd) exceeded targets in every year from 1993 to 1999 (Welsh Office 1999). Of course, enrolment targets should be set with future graduations in mind, but it is noteworthy that completions consistently fall below both enrolments and targets. It may be the case that enrolment targets are set with an expected drop-out rate already factored into the equation and such a shortfall may be expected. Indeed, any targets must account for trainee attrition if they are to be realistic. However, it is not clear whether this is the case or not, as we found no clear information on this aspect of target-setting procedures. In contrast to enrolments on BEd courses, PGCE enrolments in Wales have rarely exceeded or even met the targets. Although the completion rates, averaging 79 per cent from 1993 to 1999, were higher than for BEd courses there was a widening shortfall between target enrolments and projected completions. Even if all overall and subject-specific teaching recruitment targets were being met, there might still be shortages in some regions. This is because the DfEE did not take into consideration regional differences in its calculation of recruitment targets. A report by the Education Management Information Exchange at the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) suggested that their simple national-level calculus might be partly responsible for the continued teacher shortages in some regions because 'such a view seems to assume that those trained teachers will fill automatically the teaching vacancies wherever they appear. The regional data suggest otherwise' (Dean 2000a, p. 4). Another problem for the shortage subject targets lies in the absolute size of the relevant graduate cohort. According to HESA, between 1997 and 2001 the total number of graduates (including postgraduates, first-degree and other undergraduates) rose from 431,900 to 470,300 (an increase of 9 per cent). Graduations from the physical sciences, engineering and technology declined by approximately 10 per cent from 1997 to 2001, while mathematical science graduates showed an increase of 10 per cent during the same period (from 5,000 in 1997 to 5,500 in 2001). There are several issues here. The first is that rather than increasing at the same rate as the demands of the labour market, the number of graduates in some shortage subjects is either not rising fast enough or actually decreasing. The second is the reluctance of these graduates to go into teaching. The underlying problem, however, is the difficulty in getting students to opt for these subjects at higher levels in school and university. The relatively small pool of individuals continuing to study these shortage

64

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

subjects inevitably leads to fierce competition for their expertise once they have gained qualifications in these scarce skills. According to the TTA, more than two-thirds of employers had difficulty recruiting graduates of the right calibre between 2000 and 2001. The problem was particularly acute among organizations recruiting maths and science graduates (School Teachers' Review Body 2002). It would seem, then, that the teaching profession might not be experiencing specific recruitment difficulties, but only those affecting graduate employers more widely, with a shortage of graduates in particular subjects leading to greater competition for the small pool of available talent. To achieve the PGCE secondary maths intake target for 2001/02, for example, would mean recruiting nearly half of all maths students graduating in 2001 (School Teachers' Review Body 2001). According to the then Secretary of State for Education, four out of ten maths graduates would need to become teachers if existing training targets were to be met, and to aim higher might not be practicable given the attractive alternatives available to such students (Howson 2001c). Similarly, to meet PGCE targets in modern foreign languages and RE over 40 per cent of the UK graduate output in these subjects would be needed each year (Schoolsnet 2001). The career aspirations of graduates are also a factor. A study by Donnelly (2002) showed that only about 20 per cent of science and mathematics undergraduates seriously considered teaching as a career. A decade ago the proportion was about one third. The problem of attracting more teachers in shortage areas is about more than any perceived unattractiveness of teaching as a career or poor pay, however. Graduate physicists are 'more attracted to those jobs where they can fully use and develop their physics skills and knowledge'. They are not attracted to the prospect of having to teach across the sciences. The root of the problem remains that the number of people being taught to graduate level in these shortage subjects is relatively low. Increasing the number of science and maths graduates, or even the number taking these subjects post-16, is not necessarily an easy task. In a report reviewing the supply of scientists for the Treasury, it was found that schoolchildren had greater difficulty in getting high marks in science and maths than for other subjects (Canovan 2002). One of the reasons was the 'parlous state' of science teaching in schools described in the report. The report also found that, to protect their league table positions, some schools were discouraging their students from doing 'hard' science subjects at GCSE and A-level. In the words of the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee's chair, 'school science can be so boring it puts young people off science for life'. The Committee also remarked that GCSE coursework was 'boring and pointless' and 'stultifying', adding that 'it kills the interest which may have been kindled at primary school' (Canovan, 2002, p. 6). Unstimulating science teaching may contribute to a decline in the number of students

Who Enters Teacher Training"? 65

going on to study science at A-level and degree level. Similar comments may be made about maths. With fewer graduates in a competitive job market, the number going into teaching is likely to be affected. Although graduate-level study is now required to teach National Curriculum subjects in schools, the number of students being taught to graduate level in several of these subjects has not risen accordingly. Taking into account the fact that the teaching profession must compete with other industries recruiting graduates, the number entering ITT in recent years might be considered healthy. To improve on this would, presumably, require a weakening of the requirement for specialist graduates in all areas, a considerable increase in the proportion of undergraduates in shortage areas or, more radically, a dismantling of the National Curriculum. Who are the trainees?

Given that there seems to be no overall shortage of applicants for teacher training, the following section considers where there are specific shortages by subject or sector, or under-representation of particular social groups. Because we have no access to relevant data, we cannot examine the extent to which social groups are equally represented in teacher training once their prior qualifications are taken into account. Our research into participation in higher education more widely suggests that underrepresentation is, in any case, very difficult to establish (Gorard 2005). Therefore, any comments that follow are intended only to argue the desirability, ceteris paribus, of a teaching force that reflects the more general make-up of the school population. Prior qualifications

Particular concerns have been expressed about the quality of entrants to undergraduate ITT courses. The mean A-level scores of applicants to undergraduate courses in all subjects was 18.8, while that for ITT undergraduates was 13.6 (House of Commons 1997a). In some cases, students on BEd courses entered through the 'clearing' process, having no A-level points or equivalent, because they had failed their qualifications. The situation for postgraduate enrolments is better. Postgraduate students, by definition, generally have a degree or its equivalent. A clear majority of recent entrants to PGCE courses held a second-class honours degree of some kind, with more than half of these having earned an upper second or better. Fewer than 6 per cent of postgraduate ITT students held a first-class degree. The proportion of students (England only) completing PGCEs with a first or second-class degree increased from 82 per cent in 1998 to 92 per cent in 2002 (DfES 2004), a trend that was in line with the proportion of these degree classes awarded over the same period. Our

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues Year

1st 2.i 2.ii 3rd Pass Unknown

1998

1999

2000

5 46 37 4 4 4

6 46 37 4 3 4

6 47 37 4 3 3

2001

6 46 36 4 4 5

Source: TTA

Table 4.3 Percentage of PGCE students by level of first degree, England, 1998-2001 combined individual PGCE data show that there has been very little improvement over recent years in student teacher qualifications before completing training (Table 4.3). The distribution of PGCE students with the highest degree levels is similar across different types of institution, although the proportion of students with an upper-second-class degree or higher is greater in the 4-5* RAE Subject

Primary English Maths Science IT Design and technology MFL Geography History Art Music PE RE Business studies Classics Drama Economics Social sciences

First

Upper second

Lower second

Third

Pass

Not known

4 7 10 8 4 5 6 3 6 9 5 3 4 3 14 5 4 5

49 57 29 38 35 31 47 46 61 44 46 44 47 39 49 58 46 61

38 31 32 36 40 41 33 44 31 38 37 46 39 45 24 32 43 31

2 1 13 9 9 9 3 4 1 5 3 2 4 4 5 1 4 1

3 1 10 6 7 8 4 1 1 1 6 1 3 5 0 3 3 1

3 3 5 4 6 6 9 3 1 3 3 4 3 6 9 1 0 2

Note: cells containing zero represent less than 0.5 per cent Table 4.4 Percentage of entrants by initial degree and subject specialism, 1998-2001 combined

Who Enters Teacher Training? 67 rated centres. For example, in 2001, 60 per cent of PGCE students in RAE 4-5* institutions had an upper second or above, compared to 49 per cent of students in centres who made no submission to education in the 2001 RAE, or else achieved a 1 or 2 rating. Table 4.4 confirms that the largest proportion of students entering PGCE training did so with second-class degrees. It also shows that, in most subjects, the majority of these graduates held upper seconds. However, there was some variation according to subject specialism. For example, over 10 per cent of maths students began the PGCE with a first-class degree, but there were equally large numbers enrolled on teacher training with both thirdclass and pass degrees. The distribution of initial degree classification according to subject specialism was different for English and history graduates with relatively few holding first or third-class degrees but around 60 per cent with upper-second-class degrees. TTA figures for England show that the proportion of secondary maths PGCE students with an upper-second-class degree or better increased from 33 per cent in 1996/7 to 37 per cent in 1998/9 and to 38 per cent by 2000 (Table 4.5). Entrants to mathematics ITT courses were twice as likely as the average to have a third-class degree or lower (House of Commons 1997a, para. 49). For science the figures were slightly higher with 42 per cent for the 1998/9 cohort holding an upper second or better. For almost all subjects, the proportion either remained the same or had improved slightly. Contrary to anecdotal reports, the quality of home-trained teachers newly entering UK schools has not been declining. In fact the quality of teachers in all subjects has improved, as measured in terms of these qualifications. However, for all subjects, the percentage of trainee teachers with uppersecond-class degrees or better is substantially lower than the percentage of graduates with such a qualification in the same subject. As predictable from the survey results in Chapter 3, teaching tends to attract lower levels of qualifications than other professions - and presumably has always done so. Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Maths Maths PGCE graduates students 48 48 50 51 54 56

33 33 37 36 38 -

Science Science PGCE graduates students 52 53 54 54 57 57

41 43 42 44 45

Source: TTA Performance Profiles and HESA Table of Qualifications obtained Table 4.5 Graduates and postgraduate teacher trainees with first or upper-secondclass degrees, 1996-2001

68

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

% Female

62

64

65

67

68

69

69

68

Source: GTTR (2001, 2002) Table 4.6 Percentage of female PGCE applicants, UK, 1994-2001 Sex

Examining the rates of applications disaggregated by sex reveals that, at the UK level, many more female than male students apply to take PGCE courses (Table 4.6). In 1994, for example, 20,236 applications were made by females compared to only 12,153 by males, a ratio of 62:38. The percentage of female applications increased steadily to 68 per cent by 1998. Thus, the general trend of a rise in the number of applications over the period (see above) was accompanied by a slight increase in the proportion of female applicants. Between 1998 and 2001 the proportion of female PGCE trainees (in England) also increased slightly to 71 per cent, suggesting that despite the imbalance in the sex of applicants the acceptance process actually worsens the situation. In addition to there being more female students on the PGCE courses overall, there were also proportionally more female students training to be primary schoolteachers and this number has increased slightly from 1998 to 2001. For example, in 2001 fewer than 60 per cent of all female PGCE students were training to be secondary schoolteachers, compared with over 80 per cent of their male counterparts (Table 4.7). Female PGCE students were generally better qualified than their male peers, with a larger proportion of them starting ITT with an upper-secondclass degree or higher - around 49 per cent of female students compared with 41 per cent of males. Male students were more likely than females to have a pass or a third-class degree. There was no systematic difference in the type of institution in which male and female students chose to study.

Sector

1998 %

1999 %

%

2000 %

%

2001 %

%

%

male female male female male female male female Primary 15 Secondary 84 1 Middle

36 62 1

15 83 2

37 61 2

19 80 1

40 59 2

17 81 2

39 59 2

Source: TTA

Table 4.7 Percentage of PGCE students among teaching sectors by sex, England, 1998-2001

Who Enters Teacher Training'?

Age % female

69

20-2 23-4 25-6 27-8 29-30 31-5 36-40 41-5 46-50 51+ 77

73

69

65

62

63

67

62

54

40

Source: GTTR (2001, 2002)

Table 4.8 Percentage of female PGCE applicants, by age category, UK, 2001 Females predominate applications for every age group up to and including the small group aged 46 to 50 (Table 4.8). The proportional difference between the two sexes tends to decrease with the age of the applicants, but the absolute number of applicants (of both sexes) also decreases with each advance to the next age category. This means that the impact of the sex balance on total application numbers decreases with advancing age. The most important age categories in terms of teacher supply are the first three ages from 20 to 26 which accounted for 59 per cent of all applications to UK PGCE courses in 2001. It is also in these three age categories where there is the greatest imbalance in the sex of applicants. In fact, female applicants from these youngest three categories account for 44 per cent of all applicants for 2001. In Wales, between 1994/5 and 2000/01, many more women than men enrolled on all ITT courses (including BEd). Overall, the discrepancy in favour of females accepted onto teacher training courses is greater than both the imbalance in the number of applicants and the difference when considering PGCE enrolments only. In the academic year 2000/01, women

Source: NAfW/HESA Figure 4.6 Enrolments on ITT courses by sex, Wales, 1994/5 to 2000/01

70

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

made up 74 per cent of all enrolments (Figure 4.6). There has been a slight decrease in the number of men enrolling in ITT. The proportionate difference between male and female enrolments is even more pronounced when data on first-degree ITT enrolments are examined in isolation. In 1994/5 men made up almost 25 per cent of enrolments on first-degree ITT courses, compared to only 18 per cent in 2000/01. Age In 2001 most applicants to postgraduate teacher training (the only ITT route for which figures were available) were aged 20 to 22 years (Figure 4.7). Younger applicants not only accounted for a disproportionate number of applications but also had a more favourable acceptance rate. The number of applicants declines with each subsequent age band as does the acceptance rate. It should be noted that these bands (which are not our creation - the data were only available in this form) are not of equal size and can lead to misinterpretation. Acceptance rates for the relatively small number of older applicants were very low. In the age range 31 to 40 there were 5,954 applicants in total, but 2,273 of these were not accepted for a PGCE place - an acceptance rate of just over 60 per cent. This is intriguing, because 2001 was apparently at the peak of a widely reported teacher supply crisis, and this age group is the most under-represented in teaching as a whole (see Chapter 6). Applicants

Source: GTTR (2002) Figure 4.7 Postgraduate ITT applicants by age and outcome, UK, 2001

Who Enters Teacher Training? 71 aged 51 and above actually have a greater chance of being refused a place than being offered one. There are several potential explanations why older applicants are deemed undesirable by selectors, including a systemic form of ageism, or the poorer quality of older applicants. This is a valuable area to investigate any possible increase in supply. It could be the case that older applicants tend to have lower qualifications or less desirable curricula vitae than younger ones. However, this might have more to do with individuals' social and historical circumstances than their suitability for teacher training. As higher education institutions often apply different entry criteria for mature applicants to undergraduate courses, it may be timely to investigate the extent to which similar policies are (or could be) applied with respect to both post- and undergraduate ITT. The mean age of students on the one-year PGCE course remained stable at 28 to 29 from 1998 to 2001. With a mean age of 31, students attending the SCITT programmes were slightly older. The more successful PGCE programmes, in terms of TTA quality category rating and RAE outcome, tended to recruit younger students. Perhaps this is related to their prior qualifications, as students with an honours degree (29) were on average younger than those with a pass degree (33) or those whose qualification was not specified. There was very little difference in the age distribution of students according to the sector in which they were training to teach (all have a mean of 29, with standard deviation of 7). Much larger was the difference in ages of entrants to various subject specialisms. There was a gap of almost 10 years in the mean age of students training to be PE teachers compared to those training to teach ICT or design and technology - the mean age of PE trainees was about 24 years, whereas for ICT trainees it was around 34 years. Subject specialism

The TTA have identified six subject areas as priorities for recruiting more well-qualified trainees. These are mathematics, science, modern foreign languages, English or drama, design and technology and ICT (and Welsh in Wales). Students wishing to train and to teach in these areas are likely to attract substantial 'golden hello' payments, as well as help in repaying student loans. In addition, new six-month enhancement courses are being piloted to attract graduates with mathematical or science-based degrees into teaching maths and physics (Teacher Training Agency 2004b). The proportions of students training to teach the various subject areas were similar from 1998 to 2001 (Table 4.9). Around one third were training for primary level teaching, and the next largest proportions of students specialized in the core National Curriculum subjects of science, English and modern foreign languages. Overall, almost 50 per cent of female

72

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Subject

Percentage of all trainees

Primary English Maths Science ICT Design and technology Modern foreign languages Geography History Art Music PE RE Business studies Classics Drama Economics Social sciences

32 10 6 12 2 3 9 5 5 5 3 4 3 2 0 1 1 1

Source: TTA

Table 4.9 Percentage of PGCE students across subject areas, England, 1998-2001 combined secondary trainees were concentrated in these three areas. There has been a small rise in the number of primary, ICT and design and technology trainees, and a corresponding fall in the numbers of students training to teach modern foreign languages, history, RE and art. Two new specialisms were introduced in 2001, Citizenship and the Employment-based route. Therefore, between 1998 and 2001, the proportion of students who had trained in the priority subjects has shown little improvement, despite the introduction of the incentives outlined above. The proportion of the PGCE cohort training to teach secondary English decreased from 11 per cent in 1998 to 9 per cent in 2001, for example.

Level Primary Secondary Key Stage 2/3

1998

1999

2000

2001

30 69 1

31 68 2

34 65 2

33 65 2

Source: TTA

Table 4.10 Percentage of PGCE students training by sector, England, 1998-2001

Who Enters Teacher Training? 73

Sector There has been a slight increase in the number of students training to teach in the primary sector and a concurrent decrease in the proportion training to teach in secondary schools (Table 4.10). This is in contrast to the apparent level of demand, which is greater in the secondary sector and in specified shortage subjects. Table 4.11 shows that the distribution of undergraduate degree classifications is similar among students studying to become teachers in the primary and secondary sectors. Thus, 53 per cent of primary and 51 per cent of secondary have a first or upper-second-class degree, while only 44 per cent of middle-school trainees have an upper second or better. Although this difference is small, it may reflect the nature of the intake to the relatively few institutions offering the latter course. In addition, there were some differences in the prior attainment of the trainees. For example, while English and history graduates tended to enter ITT with upper-second-class degrees, mathematics graduates had a greater variety of degree levels in the range first to third class (see above). Ethnicity

The issue of ethnic minority participation in ITT has figured prominently in recent policy initiatives to improve the recruitment and retention of teachers (DfES 2003). The TTA's target, for example, is to increase the national intake of trainees with a minority ethnic background from 7 per cent to 9 per cent by 2005-06 (Teacher Training Agency 2004c). Additionally, from September 2002 all newly qualified teachers must demonstrate that they have high expectations for all students and that they can plan and manage lessons that cater for students from a range of backgrounds, in particular those from the different minority ethnic groups. The proportion of all students on PGCE courses from any non-white ethnic minority group was reported as 7.3 per cent in 1998 and 7.5 per cent Degree

First Upper second Lower second Third Pass Unknown

Primary

4 49 38 2 3 3

Secondary Key Stage 2/3

6 45 36 5 4 4

4 40 42 6 7 2

Source: TTA

Table 4.11 Percentage of PGCE students by teaching sectors and level of first degree, England, 1998-2001 combined

74 Ethnic Group

White Black Caribbean Black African Black other Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Asian other Other Missing

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues Percentage of all trainees

87.0 0.9 0.9 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.4 5.3

Note: for students who began their PGCE training in October 2001, 17 ethnic groups were defined in the data collection stage; as opposed to 10 groups for data collected from the 1998-2000 cohorts. Source: TTA

Table 4.12 Percentage of PGCE students by ethnic group, England, 1998-2001 combined in 2001 (Table 4.12). The annual changes are very small in comparison to variations both in non-response and in the coding categories for this variable. However, this figure was higher than the 5 per cent of teachers teaching in maintained schools in England who described themselves as being from an ethnic group other than 'white' in January 2004 (DfES 2004), and only slightly lower than in the population of England as a whole. In light of the same problems, and the small number of cases in some categories, the overall distribution of ethnic groups among teacher trainers appears to be in line with their distribution in the population, especially after taking into account prior qualifications (see Chapter 6). There was slight variation in the institutions students chose to study at, according to their stated ethnic group. For example, a higher proportion of students from the Bangladeshi community studied at 4-5* RAE-rated institutions, and fewer trained at SCITTS. There is very little variation among the distribution of students from the various ethnic groups, the quality of training institutions they attend and the sector in which they choose to teach. In 2000/01, the overwhelming majority of students in their first year of ITT in Welsh educational institutions described themselves as 'white'. Of the 1,940 students providing information on their ethnicity, only 20 were from ethnic minorities. Ten described themselves as 'Asian', an additional ten as from ethnic groups other than 'Asian' or 'Black', and none described themselves as 'Black' (adapted from HESA data, Office for National Statistics 2002). In 1998, 2 per cent of the overall population of Wales were from

Who Enters Teacher Training1? 75

non-white minority ethnic groups and in 2000/01, 4 per cent of first-year higher-education students were from minority ethnic groups (HESA/Statistics Wales 2003). The equivalent number of trainee teachers in their first year of ITT in the academic year 2000/01 was less than 1 per cent. This is despite the arrival in Wales of a considerable number of students domiciled in England, where ethnic minorities are more prevalent (14 per cent of first-year HE students). Therefore, while the absolute numbers are small, and 18 per cent of the cohort did not respond to the question, it seems that teaching training in Wales under-represents those from ethnic minorities. Disability

The TTA is keen to widen the appeal of teaching to those who experience some form of disability. Among PGCE students in England from 1998 to 2001, less than 3 per cent reported experiencing a disability. The most common type of disability was 'unseen' in nature, such as diabetes, asthma or dyslexia. The number of students with disabilities made up less than 4 per cent of all first-year teacher trainees in Wales in 2000/01 (Table 4.13). This compares with 5 per cent of first-year HE students with disabilities in the same year (HESA/Statistics Wales 2003). The Labour Force Survey data for the United Kingdom shows that just under 30 million of the working-age population are economically active (i.e. either in work or looking for work). There are 6.8 million people with disabilities of working age, but nearly half (48.8 per cent or 3.4 million) are economically inactive (Office for National Statistics 2001, p. 73). If around 11 per cent of the economically active population of the UK have a disability, it can be tentatively concluded that people with disabilities are under-represented amongst teacher trainees in Wales. Conclusion

Recruitment to ITT has generally increased over recent years, despite, or perhaps because of, a general perception that there was a shortage of teachers in England and Wales. Most people do not choose teaching as a Disability status No known disability Dyslexia Other disability

Number of students Percentage 2,280 30 50

97 2 2

Source: HESA (adapted from ONS 2002). Table 4.13 First-year ITT students in Wales, by disability status, December 2000

76

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

career. A very large proportion (perhaps 45 per cent) of those applying to become a teacher are not accepted for training. A reasonable proportion (perhaps 15 per cent) of those accepted for training do not obtain QTS. According to DfEE, 17 per cent of 1999/2000 postgraduate trainees in England and Wales did not complete their course (DfEE 2001b). Up to a further 30 per cent of those completing training did not take up a teaching post. Although unable to distinguish between undergraduate and postgraduate trainees, it is estimated that, as a result of such in-course and subsequent wastage, approximately 40 per cent of those who entered training did not become teachers. A subsequent study by Smithers and Robinson (2001) confirmed that 40 per cent of final-year students did not make it to the classroom. Such wastage at each stage of the process exacerbates any recruitment problems. Wastage continues after entering the profession. Smithers and Robinson found that 18 per cent of trainees left during their first year of teaching. This meant that over half of those who trained to be teachers were lost by the end of the first year. According to a former Secretary of State for Education, almost 23 per cent of newly qualified teachers (NQTs) left teaching within three years of taking up their first post (Morris 2001). This means that less than one quarter of those initially wanting to be teachers, and less than one twelfth of those who seriously consider teaching as a career, are trained and still teaching after three years. These points are taken up again in Chapter 7.

5

Who succeeds in teacher training?

Introduction

In this chapter, we consider which characteristics of students are related to success in gaining Qualified Teacher Status (QTS) and a subsequent teaching post, and which factors relate to the 'effectiveness' of institutions in successfully training teachers. The data used are official statistics on ITT in the UK, England and Wales, supplemented by the individual records of all postgraduate teacher trainees in England over four years. We describe the relationship between the successful outcomes of ITT, the type and 'quality' of institutions that offer training and the characteristics of students who choose to train to teach. For example, we consider whether students who follow school-based programmes are more successful than those who train in research-active university departments, or whether students with the highest initial-degree classifications are more successful in achieving QTS. Such evidence could be used to help improve the performance of all routes and institutions and, in particular, those deemed less successful in these terms. Of course research of the nature described here cannot help but draw parallels with the school effectiveness and school improvement research tradition, in which the variation in school outcomes is partitioned between the individual, the school and the residual 'error' term (Sammons et al. 1996). The lessons learnt about the characteristics of relatively successful schools in these terms are then used to inform subsequent school improvement measures (Stoll and Fink 1996). Such research first identified areas of possible good practice through large-scale secondary data analysis, before pinpointing the actual elements of good practice through in-depth work in an appropriate subset of institutions. In fact, our study did not achieve this end, and for a reason that was initially rather surprising. There is almost no variation in outcomes, and what little there is cannot be systematically related to the perceived qualities of either the institutions or of their student intakes.

78

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

• The vast majority of trainees gain QTS, and then secure a teaching post, regardless of sector, prior qualifications, subject specialism, sex, ethnicity or disability. • The institution at which students train is largely unrelated to their chances of success. External indicators of the quality of institutions, such as OFSTED or RAE ratings, are unrelated to the proportion of trainees gaining QTS and securing a teaching post. Outcomes We showed in Chapter 4 that around 70 per cent of the trainees on PGCE courses in England were female, and that females were more successful in applications to teacher training. They are also more successful in completing their course, and achieving QTS than their male peers (Table 5.1). Around 82 per cent of enrolled males attain QTS in any year compared to 89 per cent of females. This difference is partly explicable in terms of the superior level of prior entry qualifications for females, but differentiated outcomes continue. For example, 91 per cent of female students with an upper-secondclass degree gained QTS, compared with 85 per cent of males with the same level of qualification. However, once an individual had been awarded QTS, the likelihood of obtaining a teaching post is about the same for both sexes, having improved for males after 1998 (Table 5.2). Younger students are more likely to be successful in gaining QTS than older trainees. Between 1998 and 2001 the mean age of successful students was 28 compared with 31 for those who were unsuccessful. Around 90 per Sex Female Male

1998

1999

2000

2001

89 83

88 83

88 81

89 83

Source: TTA

Table 5.1 Percentage success in gaining QTS, according to sex, England, 1998-2001

Sex Female Male

1998 91 89

1999

2000

2001

96 95

95 95

95 94

Source: TTA

Table 5.2 Percentage success in gaining a teaching post, according to sex, England, 1998-2001

Who Succeeds in Teacher Training! 79

cent of trainees aged 28 and below achieved QTS, compared with around 80 per cent of those aged 29 and over, for example. However, as with the difference by sex reported above, once students had obtained QTS then there was remarkably little difference in the likelihood of obtaining a post. The mean age of QTS trainees who subsequently secured a teaching post was 28, compared with only a marginally higher 29 for those who were not employed as teachers six months later. Over the same period, students starting a PGCE with a first or second-class honours degree were very successful in attaining QTS (nearly 90 per cent). Perhaps unsurprisingly, students with a lower class of degree, or with an alternative qualification, were somewhat less successful (Table 5.3). However, once attaining QTS the differentiation by prior qualification disappears (Table 5.4). All newly qualified teachers (via this route) have around 95 per cent likelihood of securing a teaching post within six months. In fact, one of the most noticeable things about these tables of prior qualification is how little variation there is. With regard to ethnicity, even allowing for the proportion of missing cases and the small numbers of some groups, it seems clear that students reporting themselves as 'White' were more likely to attain QTS than all Degree First 2.i 2.ii Third Pass Unknown

1998

1999

2000

2001

87 90 87 78 78 77

87 89 86 76 80 77

88 89 86 82 82 75

89 90 87 81 82 81

Source: TTA

Table 5.3 Distribution of students achieving QTS, according to level of first degree, England, 1998-2001 Degree First 2.i 2.ii Third Pass Unknown

1998

1999

2000

2001

92 91 91 90 90 88

94 96 96 95 94 93

94 96 95 94 95 96

94 95 95 95 94 95

Source: TTA

Table 5.4 PGCE students with QTS and in a teaching post, according to level of first degree, England, 1998-2001

80

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

other ethnic groups. The difference is especially great in comparison to those reported as 'Black African' or 'Chinese' (Table 5.5). The success rates of most minority groups have fluctuated between 1998 and 2001 and the combined rate for all non-white groups fell slightly from 79 per cent in 1998 to 77 per cent in 2000. However, the success rate of 'White' students also declined during this period (from 88 to 87 per cent), as did the overall rate for all groups (from 87 to 86 per cent). The small size of these changes, the relatively short period observed and the high proportion of missing cases means that these changes should be interpreted cautiously and not viewed as robust evidence of a serious decline either in general or for any particular groups. Once qualified, the rate of gaining a teaching post is much closer across all groups. Again, the rates have fluctuated across the observed period but were generally higher for all ethnic groups in 2000 than in 1998. Using the notion of an achievement gap (Gorard 2000), we calculate the gap between white and all non-white students in gaining QTS as 5 per cent in 1998, and 6 per cent in 2000. The gap between white and all non-white newly trained teachers in gaining a post was 2 per cent in 1998, and only 1 per cent in 2000. Overall, therefore, the gap between white and minority ethnic groups has closed. We consider below the extent to which the remaining differences are explicable in terms of other factors, such as prior qualification. Students with a known disability were a significant minority of the PGCE population (around 3 per cent between 1998 and 2001). With a qualification Ethnic group White All non-white Black Caribbean Black African Black other Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Asian other Other Missing Total

1998 QTS

1999 QTS

2000 QTS

1998 in post

1999 in post

2000 in post

88 79 77 68 78 83 80 74 69 83 82 85 87

87 77 78 71 87 77 83 74 76 72 77 84 87

87 77 74 71 74 82 77 71 66 79 80 83 86

91 88 89 91 94 87 89 83 88 87 86 89 91

96 95 92 97 100 97 92 95 91 94 94 95 96

95 93 95 91 100 94 87 87 96 95 94 95 95

Source: TTA

Table 5.5 Percentage gaining QTS and a teaching post, by ethnic group, England, 1998-2000

Who Succeeds in Teacher Training? 81

rate of 82 per cent, they were slightly less successful in gaining QTS compared to the overall rate of 86 per cent. However, once qualified they are as likely to gain a teaching post (93 per cent) as students with no known disability (94 per cent). The difference in obtaining QTS is small for students with conditions such as dyslexia, diabetes or hearing or visual impairments. However, students with mobility difficulties, mental health difficulties or multiple disabilities were far less likely to be successful in gaining QTS (Table 5.6). Students with a known disability are also more likely to take longer to complete the PGCE course. It has to be remembered, however, that the numbers of cases involved were small and therefore sensitive to minor variations. There is very little difference between the primary and secondary sectors both in QTS success rates and the chances of securing a teaching post. Between 1998 and 2001, primary trainees had an 87 per cent success rate in attaining QTS, and a 95 per cent rate of securing a teaching post. Secondary trainees had rates of 86 per cent and 93 per cent, while students preparing to teach Key Stages 2 and 3 had rates of 89 per cent and 92 per cent, respectively. This is one of the many characteristics that were found, perhaps surprisingly, to make no difference when considering the possible determinants of success in teacher training (see below). From 1998 to 2001, consistentiy high proportions of students were also awarded QTS, regardless of their subject specialism. Success rates were slighdy lower in mathematics, science and IT, but the differences were small and ranged from 80 per cent to 94 per cent (Table 5.7). For example, for the 2001 cohort, 82 per cent of mathematics trainees were awarded QTS, compared with 87 per cent of English trainees. PE trainees remain consistently successful in achieving QTS over the four years, whilst art Type of disability

% of all sample

All students Dyslexia Blind/partially sighted Deaf/hearing impairment Wheelchair user/mobility difficulties Personal care support Mental health difficulties An unseen disability, e.g. diabetes, asthma Multiple disabilities Other

0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.1 0.2 2.7

% gaining QTS

87 85 83 86 62 100 53 84 69 82

Source: TTA

Table 5.6 Success rates of PGCE students, according to disability, England, 1998-2001 combine

82 Subject

Primary English Maths Science IT Design and technology MFL Geography History Art Music PE RE Business studies Classics Drama Economics Social sciences Total

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues % QTS

87 87 83 84 83 84 86 90 89 89 87 93 85 84 87 89 86 91 87

Source: TTA

Table 5.7 Percentage of students attaining QTS by subject areas, England, 1998-2001 combined trainees appear to have had more variable success - from 94 per cent of the cohort achieving QTS in 1998 to 80 per cent in 2001. However, in general, the proportions of students achieving QTS did not change appreciably in the period studied. There is some variation in the proportion of students with QTS who then take up a teaching post. Students with PGCEs in art, classics, geography and history appear to be slightly less likely to take up a teaching post than their peers. However, the variation is small and it appears that consistently high numbers of graduates with a PGCE secure a teaching post, regardless of their subject specialism (Table 5.8), In the absence of standardized outcome measures, it is difficult to see how a direct comparison can be drawn between success rates in different subjects. When it comes to securing a teaching post, the proportion of successful PGCE students training in England showed an overall rise between 1998 and 2001. In 1998 the overall success rate was 91 per cent. This climbed to 96 per cent in 1999 before falling back to 95 per cent in 2000, where it remained the following year. Figures from Wales in 2004 show that trainees following first-degree ITT courses, such as BEds, generally have a lower

Who Succeeds in Teacher Training? 83

Year Primary English Maths Science IT Design and technology MFL Geography History Art Music PE RE Business studies Classics Drama Economics Social sciences Citizenship Total

1998

1999

2000

2001

92 94 95 90 93 95 90 84 85 85 90 89 89 91 97 93 99 90 91

97 97 95 95 94 95 93 96 95 92 97 96 97 96 85 97 97 97 96

96 96 95 95 96 98 94 94 95 91 96 95 93 95 78 95 90 93 95

94 98 96 95 96 95 94 92 94 95 95 96 95 94 94 94 97 94 94 95

Source: TTA

Table 5.8 PGCE students with QTS and in a teaching post, according to subject specialism, England, 1998-2001 success rate in obtaining QTS and a first teaching post (74 per cent) than those taking PGCEs (84 per cent). For those PGCE students for whom we have complete individualized data, only around 8 per cent did not successfully complete their ITT course. Of these, most cited unspecified personal reasons, other than health, death or financial difficulty, as their particular problem (Table 5.9). Only 1 per cent of trainees actually fail PGCE courses, rather than dropping out. There is little evidence from these self-reports that finance is any considerable barrier to completion. Amongst the very small number of students who stated that they left for financial reasons there were no robust patterns in relation to characteristics such as

ethnicity, disability, institution or prior degree. Outcomes by institution As explained in Chapter 2, we grouped the ITT institutions according to their rating in the 2001 RAE exercise, and the individual training programmes according to their TTA quality category and OFSTED

84

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Outcome

Percentage

Successful completion Academic failure Transferred to other HEI Health reasons Death Financial reasons Other personal reasons Written off after lapse of time Exclusion Gone into employment Other Unknown

91.6 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 4.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0

Note: cells containing zero represent less than 0.05 per cent. The figures are for completed cases. Source: TTA

Table 5.9 Outcomes from ITT courses, PGCE students, England 1998-2000 combined inspection ratings. The TTA rating of the programme attended makes little difference to achieving QTS, and a similarly high proportion of students were successful across categories A to C (Table 5.10). As the majority of students train on programmes graded in this range, it is fair to say that for most students the course they attend has little impact on their chances of qualifying. Programmes rated as category D and E account for less than 0.2 per cent of the PGCE cohort. These programmes are somewhat less successful in awarding QTS, although the small numbers of students involved make interpretation difficult. However, students who followed Institution quality as judged by TTA Category A Category B Category C Category D Category E

Percentage QTS

Percentage in teaching post

87 87 88 82 69

93 94 94 97 97

Note: 7 per cent of cases missing. Fewer than 80 students attended institutions rated D or E. Source: TTA

Table 5.10 Percentage of PGCE students gaining QTS and a teaching post, according to TTA quality, England, 1998-2001 combined

Who Succeeds in Teacher Training"? 85 programmes graded poorly by OFSTED (and so awarded a lower TTA quality category) were just as likely to secure both QTS and a teaching post as their peers on programmes that were judged as being of higher quality. This is because the weaker programmes were actually more successful in terms of students obtaining a subsequent teaching post. One possible explanation may be that some early employment-based routes into teaching appeared to have a higher failure rate than university-based courses because, in effect, the course failure and the teaching failure occur together. As explained in Chapter 2, there is a range of criteria used by OFSTED to assess the quality of PGCE courses. Trainees' skills in subject knowledge, teaching standards and the ability to assess pupils are tested by OFSTED using assessments that are separate from those administered by the institution in which they study, and which have no impact on their success as trainees. The results of the individual tests are then aggregated and courses are awarded grades (from 1 to 4) for each of these three areas, according to the distribution of the individual scores. The grades awarded by OFSTED bear little relationship to the success of trainees in attaining QTS. Table 5.11 shows the percentage of PGCE students gaining QTS according to the OFSTED grading in each of the three areas. Leaving aside the almost negligible number of Grade 4 students, trainees graded 3 in subject knowledge, teaching standards and ability to assess pupils are at least as likely to obtain QTS as those graded 1 in these areas. It may be that a Grade 3 (or 4) is sufficient for students to pass, and this is simply a threshold effect. Another possibility is that these OFSTED grades are incorrect. And a third is that institutions are passing students almost irrespective of quality. The situation is clarified somewhat in Table 5.12, which shows that students are equally likely to obtain QTS regardless of the reported quality of the course they are enrolled on. Students in institutions graded 3 in both course design and delivery and admissions and selection of students are at least as likely to obtain QTS as those graded 1 in these areas. Most Trainees' grade QTS and Subject QTS and Teaching QTS and Ability knowledge standards to assess pupils Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4

87 87 89 78

88 86 86 85

87 87 88 -

Note: the cell 'Grade 4' may contain as few as 5 cases Source: TTA

Table 5.11 Percentage of PGCE students obtaining QTS according to their OFSTED grading, England, 1998-2001 combined

86 Institutions' grading Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues QTS and Course design/delivery

QTS and Accuracy QTS and of assessing trainees Admissions/selection

87 87 88 80

87 87 88 84

87 87 83 -*

Note: the cell 'Grade 4' may contain as few as 5 cases Source: TTA

Table 5.12 Percentage of PGCE students obtaining QTS according to the OFSTED grading for their institution, England, 1998-2001 combined dramatically, students who studied in an institution graded as 3 or 4 by OFSTED for their accuracy of assessing trainee teachers were no less likely to gain QTS than their colleagues in an institution graded 1 or 2. It is important to recall that the decision to award QTS is in the hands of the institution, and that the OFSTED inspections are the closest thing to quality moderation that takes place. This suggests either considerable inaccuracy in OFSTED grading, or else that institutions graded 3 and 4, not able to judge the quality of trainees, could be making mistakes when awarding QTS at the same rate as institutions graded 1 or 2. This is less likely to be a threshold effect than evidence of a quite serious problem in one or both of these bodies. A large proportion of PGCE students (over 40 per cent) were studying in research-active institutions which gained a grade 4, 5 or 5* in the RAE 2001, and 77 per cent of trainees were based in departments with nationally recognized excellence in some areas of research (3 and above). Despite some of the publicly expressed fears of the TTA and the British Educational Research Association (BERA), most teacher trainees were, at that time, educated in a highly research-active department. Around 87 per cent of all students were successful in achieving QTS, and there is little variation between the research-active and less active or inactive departments. Like

Institution rating 1998 1999 2000 2001 RAE (4-5*) RAE (3a and 3b) RAE (1,2 or not submitted) SCITTs Employment-based route

86 88 87 89 -

87 86 87 87 -

88 85 86 86 -

88 85 87 92 91

Source: TTA

Table 5.13 Percentage of PGCE students gaining QTS, according to RAE rating of institution, England, 1998-2001

Who Succeeds in Teacher Training'? 87 OFSTED and TTA ratings, RAE grades are unrelated to the proportion of successful students (Table 5.13). The same pattern emerges when looking at the success of QTS trainees in obtaining their first post (Table 5.14). The vast majority (94 per cent) were successful in gaining a teaching post, and there is little variation in terms of research activity. It is not the case that the more prestigious departments with high RAE scores are any more successful in qualifying their students or placing them in jobs. The more successfully the institution is rated in RAE terms, the more students it trained on high-quality-rated ITT courses. There is, therefore, a strong relationship between TTA/OFSTED grades and RAE scores, but not between these and student outcomes. None of the more research-active institutions came into the lowest TTA-quality category. None of the SCITTs, which are not research active (in terms of submitting to the RAE), were categorized as offering the highest-quality teacher training courses. In fact the majority of the small number of students following the SCITTs route were training on programmes rated as category C. Students in the highest RAE-rated institutions were more likely to follow the secondary PGCE route. Or, in other words, institutions which are generally more research active were more likely to offer secondary PGCE courses. Nevertheless, students studying the primary or secondary route were just as likely to achieve QTS regardless of the type of institution in which they trained. Regardless of the institution type and the sector in which an individual has trained to teach, once they have gained QTS, they are equally likely to secure a teaching post. The differential effectiveness of institutions

This section considers the effectiveness of the 127 institutions offering PGCEs in England, in terms of securing the successful outcomes of ITT awarding QTS and their trainees' success in securing a teaching post. When Institution rating RAE (4-5*) RAE (3a and 3b) RAE (1,2 or not submitted) SCITTs

1998

1999

2000

2001

90 91 91 91

94 97 96 98

94 96 95 96

95 95 94 94

Note: No data is available for employment-based routes as candidates are already in employment Source: TTA

Table 5.14 Percentage of PGCE students in teaching post, according to RAE rating of institution, England, 1998-2001

88

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

comparing outcomes such as QTS, which depend to some extent on academic ability, it is useful to consider the nature of the intake to each of the different types of institution. For example, institution type A may have a similar proportion of trainees achieving QTS as institution type B but institution type A may also tend to attract graduates with lower degree classifications. In such a case it could be argued that institution type A is more effective at training students to achieve QTS. However, it needs to be remembered that there are difficulties with using an unstandardized measure such as degree classification as a fair measure for prior attainment. The awarding of degrees and of QTS is largely under the control of the institutions themselves, who are funded per capita and therefore in a marketlike situation in terms of attracting and retaining students. There is so little variation between institutions in the awarding of QTS or gaining a teaching post that there is, as far as it is possible to tell, no 'institutional effect' on the success of individual trainees. We conducted logistic regression analyses with both QTS and gaining a teaching post as the predicted variables, and using all of the individual-level characteristics of the students and their institutions as predictors. Because the rate of success in the predictor variables is so flat, no robust model emerged. We also constructed two multi-level models with linear regression analyses, using the same variables, with the same result. The individual-level characteristics of students could 'explain' or predict less than 10 per cent of the limited variation in success or failure in teacher training. Once these characteristics were taken into account, there was no systematic or sustained variation between institutions (Smith and Gorard 2004). Of course, there is some volatility in scores over years, and within certain sparsely populated categories. Institution

1998

1999

2000

2001

University of Birmingham University of Cambridge Homerton, Cambridge University of Newcastle UC Northampton Manchester Metropolitan Univ. ofHuddersfield Institute of Education Sheffield Hallam Canterbury Christ Church

214 161 390 277 62 712 83 874 271 393

333 177 426 269 63 850 93 903 303 488

346 178 417 276 72 852 96 894 300 518

369 543 307 65 840 113 896 303 555

Note: the figures for Homerton appear under University of Cambridge from 2001 Source: TTA

Table 5.15 Number of first-year PGCE students per institution, 1998-2001

Who Succeeds in Teacher Training1? 89 Table 5.15 shows the annual variation in the student numbers admitted to ten large teacher-training institutions, used as exemplars in this section. Over the four years studied, numbers have increased considerably in many of these institutions, and no institutions have witnessed a decrease in the long term. This is largely due to the overall increase in funded places (see Chapter 4), although another large provider (the Open University) ceased recruiting for its primary PGCE over the same period, leading to some redistribution of planned places. Table 5.16 shows the percentage of entrants having a first or uppersecond-class degree in the same ten large teacher training institutions. This proportion varies considerably between institutions. In 1998, for example, 70 per cent of PGCE entrants to the University of Cambridge had a first or upper second compared to only 26 per cent of entrants to the University of Huddersfield. There is equivalently large variation in the scores for some institutions over time, such as the change from 38 per cent in 1999 to 74 per cent in 2000 for the University College of Northampton. Most of the institutions recruited similar proportions of students with high degree classifications each year, however, usually varying by only a few per cent. The picture is generally one of little change over time, with the proportions of entrants with higher degree classifications congruent with the status or reputation of the institutions running the courses. Averaged over the years 1998 to 2001, and ignoring small institutions with fewer than 50 students per year, the ten training institutions in Tables 5.15 and 5.16 are among the most and least successful in terms of QTS qualification. They represent the top six and bottom four extremes of the 127 training institutions, but the difference in the proportion of trainees Institution University of Birmingham University of Cambridge Homerton, Cambridge University of Newcastle UC Northampton Manchester Metropolitan Univ. of Huddersfield Institute of Education Sheffield Hallam Canterbury Christ Church

1998

1999

2000

2001

56 70 68 53 44 50 26 59 46 51

56 74 71 53 38 47 47 61 50 51

57 66 76 55 74 49 40 58 49 55

51 73 47 56 53 39 66 52 53

Note: in any year, up to 10 per cent of entrants do not record prior qualifications Source: TTA

Table 5.16 Percentage of PGCE entrants with first or upper-second-class honours degree, by institution, 1998-2001

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Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Institution 1998 1999 2000 2001

University of Birmingham University of Cambridge Homerton, Cambridge University of Newcastle UC Northampton Manchester Metropolitan University of Huddersfield Institute of Education Sheffield Hallam Canterbury Christ Church

93 94 92 94 92 89 81 82 84 86

92 90 88 89 97 89 71 80 79 77

95 92 92 93 96 91 83 78 80 83

92 95 -

91 94 91 90 78 92 88

Source: TTA

Table 5.17 Percentage of PGCE students attaining QTS, by institution, 1998-2001 achieving QTS is not large (Table 5.17). The University of Huddersfield, which in this period has one of the lowest raw-score QTS rates, had a pass rate of 90 per cent in 2001, which is roughly the same as that of the University of Newcastle, which had one of the highest raw-score QTS rates. When one considers that the prior qualifications of students tend to be higher in the institutions with the higher raw-score outcomes then any semblance of an institutional effect disappears. There is a difference between a very large centre like Manchester Metropolitan (around 90 per cent success rate) and another like the London Institute of Education (around 80 per cent success rate) which is larger than the variation between years within institutions. And it is also true that the rate of success at MMU is higher than at IoE despite MMU having a slightly lower quality intake in terms of first degree. In simple value-added terms relating prior attainment to QTS, therefore, the London IoE fares worse than MMU. But overall, the relationship between prior and subsequent qualification is not this straightforward, either when comparing across institutions, or within one institution but across years. Disparities, such as that between MMU and IoE, are neither large enough nor common

enough among the 127 cases for there to be an institutional effect. Conclusion

Teacher supply is not just about numbers; it is also about quality. There have been concerns that 'insufficient high quality entrants were being attracted in comparison to other professions' and 'the quality of entrants was low in shortage subject areas' (House of Commons 1997a, BBC News 2001a). But DfEE figures showed that in England and Wales, between 1990 and 2000, the proportion of students completing PGCEs with a first or secondclass degree had increased from 82 per cent to 92 per cent (DfEE 2000a,

Who Succeeds in Teacher Training? 91 DfEE 2001a). This was in line with the overall rise in the proportion of students obtaining these degree classes over the same period. The DfEE has also asserted that 'standards of training vary widely among institutions' (DfEE 1998a, para 105), and this is reflected here in the OFSTED gradings, the prior attainment of the trainees and other characteristics of both the institutions (RAE grade, for example) and of the students within them. Rather surprisingly, however, the outcomes of ITT vary little between institutions and routes. Between 80 and 90 per cent of trainees were awarded QTS, and around 95 per cent of all successful trainees for whom data was received, were teaching within six months of qualifying, irrespective of their prior attainment or the perceived qualities of their training institution. This varies little according to whether they chose to train in a highly research-active institution, whether they followed a school-based training programme or whether they began their training with a first-class or with a pass degree or no degree at all. There is so little variation in the results, and little of what there is can be explained by individual characteristics and even less by institutional characteristics, that it is fair to say that there is no ITT institutional effect. Of course, this conclusion takes no account of the possibility of 'distinctions' awarded with QTS, the type of post that successful trainees may find themselves in or their retention and progression in later career. There may well be institutionally related differences in these, although our data is necessarily silent on them. It is also worth recalling the slightly lower success rate (and entry qualifications) of those from ethnic minorities. The numbers are small, and no firm conclusion should be drawn yet, but the situation is definitely worth monitoring. Because of concerns over the quality of ITT, safeguards have been put in place to help ensure that courses produce well-trained and competent teachers. These safeguards have contributed to the existence of the TTA quality categories which themselves are derived from the results of OFSTED inspections of training provision. These OFSTED inspection criteria are intended to help identify institutions that are differentially effective in training new teachers. However, the results from this study bring into question the effectiveness of using such criteria when it comes to grading institutions according to their success in training teachers. For example, institutions or courses awarded a Grade 3 for the category 'institution's accuracy of assessing trainees', conferred QTS on the same proportion of students (87 per cent) as institutions that were awarded a Grade 1 in this category. These findings lead us to draw several possible conclusions. One is that the information that best predicts QTS outcome may not be included in the datasets we were given. While this is always possible, it is difficult to ascertain what data this might be and also how it might be obtained. One

92

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

of the lessons from work on school effectiveness is that the addition of further variables to the explanatory models actually shrinks rather than enhances the apparent institutional effect. For example, knowledge of the first language spoken by trainees might show that this is a relevant factor to success, and therefore it might reduce the apparent difference in effectiveness between Manchester Metropolitan University and the London Institute of Education (where more students may be from overseas). Therefore, although it is always possible to suggest further research, we do not feel that this is the most plausible avenue to explore. Another conclusion is that ITT institutions are all very effective at allocating QTS to deserving and competent trainees, regardless of their background characteristics and levels of prior attainment. However, this would imply that the OFSTED inspections of ITT are ineffective, fail to properly assess the quality of ITT courses, allocate success or failure incorrectly or, at best, are only weakly related to identifying what makes a competent teaching professional. If so, this suggests that considerable time, effort and money could be saved by abolishing these inspections and reforming OFSTED in the process. This is likely to be a popular conclusion but, while it cannot be ruled out, an equally plausible alternative is present. This third conclusion is that ITT institutions are rewarding very high numbers of students with an unstandardized qualification that simply fails to differentiate between more and less competent professionals. The institutions are in charge of their own certification, and are under pressure to attract students. There is no system of national moderation of results and the only way of comparing the quality of institutions in a national context currently lies in the inspections. These inspections report that institutions vary considerably in quality, most significantly in their ability to recognize good teaching, but the institutions' outputs do not reflect this variability, with all routinely passing nearly 90 per cent of candidates. If, as suggested in this book, we are in a period where the overall numbers of teachers are not a concern but where concern for quality is paramount, then this possible conclusion would have important implications for a way forward. Commentators concerned to improve the quality of the teaching workforce might be better advised to focus on creating nationally moderated standards for the certification of trainees than to pursue other agenda, such as the promotion of research-based teaching. As we have seen, most student teachers already train in institutions where there is at least a nationally excellent level of research. Of course, pushing for a second track of research funding for ITT departments is of immediate financial benefit to the departments themselves, whereas pushing for greater standardization and rigour in the certification of teachers may not be. The allure of this may be encouraging teacher organizations to follow a less effective path to improvement.

DESCRIBING THE

TEACHING WORKFORCE

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6

Who are the teachers?

This section consists of two chapters. Using a variety of national datasets, as described in Chapter 2, this chapter presents a picture of the teacher workforce in the UK. These are the individuals who decided to be a teacher, as described in Chapter 3, and were successful in gaining a teaching post after the process of training described in Chapters 4 and 5. Our analysis looks at the available characteristics of the teaching workforce in terms of sex, age, ethnicity, trends over time, the number of pupils, differences between regions, sectors and subject specialism. These patterns are also compared to the more general population to illustrate ways in which teachers are, and are not, representative of it. Chapter 7 looks in more detail at the teachers deemed 'missing' from the system. • In England, there are now more teachers in service in each school sector than there have been in any previous year for which data is available. In addition, the rate of increase in teacher numbers at least matches that of pupil numbers. • Pupilrteacher ratios are, therefore, close to their historic lowest point. • Areas with higher teacher vacancy figures, such as Inner and Outer London and the south-east of England, operate with correspondingly low pupil:teacher ratios but (paradoxically) larger class sizes. While this suggests that neither pupil:teacher ratios nor vacancy rates are good indicators of class size, it does show that the deployment of teachers in schools is likely to be an institutional, management or administrative issue rather than one to be solved by national policy. • There is no evidence of the increased use of unqualified teachers. • While teachers aged 30 to 39 are under-represented in the profession, the repetition of this situation over different periods suggests that there is little danger of a recruitment 'time bomb'.

96

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Pupil numbers

One of the most basic determinants of the number of teachers needed in any education system is the number of young people of school age. Between 1970 and 1980 there was an increase in secondary school pupil numbers from approximately 2.9 million to 3.9 million in England and Wales which, of course, led to a demand for more teachers. In England, between 1980 and 1991 pupil numbers declined to under 2.9 million, the lowest level since 1970, but then increased to 3.3 million by 2002 (Figure 6.1). In Wales, the number of school age pupils also increased, but over the 1990s numbers had begun to level off before declining slightly in 2000 (Figure 6.2). The increase from 460,513 students in 1990 to 486,910 in 2000 represents a rise in school rolls in Wales of around 6 per cent. However, because of variations in school size and local geography, an increase in the number of students does not automatically translate into a proportionate increase in demand for teachers. As is discussed below, teacher demand and supply is subject to regional and subject-area variation, and such factors can often outweigh the trends observed in aggregated national data. Teacher numbers

DfEE figures show that the number of full-time equivalent qualified teachers in England (figures for Wales were not available prior to 1991) between

Source: DfES (2002b) and DfES (2004) Figure 6.1 Pupil and teacher numbers in maintained secondary schools in England, 1990-2004

Who are the Teachers?

97

Source: GTCW (2002) Figure 6.2 Full-time pupils in schools in Wales 1990-2000, by age 1970 and 1980 increased from 161,200 to 232,500, the highest level ever recorded at that time (DfEE 2000a). Between 1985 and 1998 the number of full-time secondary school teachers in England and Wales fell by 21 per cent (National Statistics 2000), although since 1997-8, the number of teachers in all sectors in England has grown substantially (by 9 per cent in 2005) (Figure 6.1, Table 6.1). By 2005 there were substantially more teachers in all sectors of schooling than in any year for which we have complete data, and the rate of teacher increase is at least matching that of pupils. These are not the conditions for a teacher shortage. What appears to have happened is that by 1990 there were, in a sense, too many teachers for the number of pupils, and their numbers were allowed to decline to a low of 178,800 for the secondary sector in 1994, by which time pupil numbers were beginning to rise again Sector

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Nursery/Primary 200.0 198.4 200.0 203.6 206.9 207.5 205.8 204.6 205.0 Secondary 193.8 193.6 196.2 198.5 203.2 209.6 212.4 216.5 220.4 All teachers 412.8 410.8 415.3 421.3 429.8 437.1 438.4 442.1 446.8 Note: 'All teachers' also includes, for example, tertiary teachers Source: National Statistics First Release SFR 17/2005 Table 6.1 Qualified teachers in England, by sector, 1997-2005 (thousands)

98

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

after plateauing in the late-1980s and early-1990s. At this stage, the rate of growth in pupil numbers was greater than that of teacher numbers. Of course, if there had been 'too many' teachers to start with then this would not be cause for alarm, but this differential growth may have been one stimulus to the 'crisis account' described in Chapter 1. As teacher demand is determined in part by targets for pupil:teacher ratios, then in order to maintain any pupilrteacher ratio, in a climate of rising pupil numbers, more teachers would be needed. This may explain the increasing numbers of teacher vacancies, and, perhaps, the beginning of the recent 'crisis'. Since 1999, however, the growth rate of teachers has been greater than that of pupils, and demographics suggest that the growth in pupil numbers will start to reduce, and that pupil numbers will actually decline in the next decade. We are already beginning to see signs that rather than there being a shortage there is actually an over-supply of teachers (see Chapter 7). Although overall teacher numbers may be rising, an increasing dependence on foreign and unqualified teachers and the use of non-regular teachers has often been cited as signs of a teacher-supply crisis (Smithers and Robinson 2000b, Slater 2004). Despite these fears over numbers of unqualified teachers, Table 6.2 shows that the vast majority of teachers are qualified, in that they have Qualified Teacher Status. Of the remaining regular teachers, most will have qualifications both in their subject area (if relevant) and in teaching, but are likely to have received their training overseas. Given that successful accredited training in the EU, USA or British Commonwealth does not, currently, confer QTS, we can see that fears about Category

Total

Full-time QTS Part-time QTS Overseas trained or otherwise not QTS All regular teachers On employment-based route to QTS Occasional service Total teachers

369,700 43,300 12,300 431,700 6,300 15,100 446,800

Source: National Statistics First Release SFR 17/2005 Table 6.2 Characteristics of the teacher population, England 2004 Sector Primary Secondary

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

13,233 13,487 13,517 13,636 13,623 13,569 13,474 12,483 12,783 13,031 13,291 13,439 13,519 13,767

Source: National Statistics First Release SDR 56/2005 Table 6.3 Qualified teachers in LEA-maintained schools, Wales, 1998-2004

Who are the Teachers'? 99 high proportions of genuinely unqualified teachers are unfounded. Equally, one cannot criticize those on an employment-based training route to QTS for not yet actually possessing QTS. It is not clear what proportion of the 15,100 occasional teachers in England would be deemed to be qualified, but this group is anyway only 3 per cent of the total workforce. A similar pattern of growth in teacher numbers across all sectors has taken place in Wales (Table 6.3), where overall the number of full-time equivalent teachers has increased since at least 1996/7. For example, in the secondary sector, the number of teachers grew by over 10 per cent between 1998 and 2004, even though the number of pupils was actually declining over much of the same period. Given that the data in Table 6.3 relates to 'qualified' teachers, and excludes not only assistants and temporary teachers but also teachers trained overseas or in other sectors, we can see that there is no absolute shortage of teachers in Wales - quite the reverse. By March 2005, there were 38,220 registered teachers in Wales, including 3,110 who did not have a post (GTC Wales 2005). One reasonable explanation for the crisis accounts accompanying these figures is that demand had grown even faster than teacher supply, perhaps because of policies leading to smaller classes or smaller schools (see below). Despite a growth in pupil numbers since the early 1990s, the number of secondary schools in Wales has remained constant (Table 6.4). Therefore, the number of teachers per school has actually increased over this period. Similar patterns appear for other sectors. The final row of Table 6.5 shows the number of pupils per teacher (or the pupihteacher ratio, PTR). This suggests that despite the crisis of teacher shortages in Wales, and reports of schools having to close for part of the week due to the non-availability of staff, the PTR does not change much over time. At the peak of the 'crisis' in 2001 the PTR was the same as it had been in 1996, just before the crisis, and slightly lower than in 1980, long before the crisis. The issue of pupil:teacher ratios merits further consideration.

1980

1990

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

No. of pupils 239,641 185,193 200,288 201,852 204,158 207,916 210,396 212,02' FTE teachers 14,440 12,026 12,397 12,228 12,384 12,471 12,692 12,95! No. of schools 239 230 229 228 229 228 229 22' Pupils:school 1,003 805 875 885 892 912 919 93' Teachers:school 60 52 54 54 54 55 55 5' Pupikteacher 17 15 16 17 17 17 17 li Source: Composite data analysed from a number of sources as explained in methods Table 6.4 Provision for secondary education in maintained schools (Wales)

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Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Pupilrteacher ratios

The DfES calculate the PTR by taking the full-time equivalent of all the pupils (where a part-time pupil counts as one half) and dividing it by the fulltime equivalent of the number of teachers employed (calculated by looking at the number of hours worked by teachers) (DfES 2002a, p. 7). Figure 6.3 shows the PTRs for primary and secondary schools in England from 1947 to 2002. As Smithers and Robinson (1991) note, from the mid1950s until the late-1980s (the latest point for which they had data) the PTR, calculated from aggregate data, decreased steadily, on almost a yearon-year basis. From 1990, however, the PTR began to increase slightly until, after reaching a mini-peak in 2000, falling for two consecutive years. In 2003 the PTR for primary schools was 23 and for secondary schools it was 17. From the mid-1970s onwards, trends in PTR have been extraordinarily similar in both the primary and secondary sectors. The only exception has been in independent schools which have a near-fixed number of places and which, once these are filled, do not need to concern themselves with those pupils not being placed. In 2005, PTRs remained near their historical low point. Nevertheless, expectations change over time, and so the increase in PTR from 1990 onwards, after more than 30 years of steady decline, will have been one stimulus to the recent teaching 'crisis'. By comparison, OECD

Note: Data is collected in January each year. The origin of this graph is not zero. Source: Adapted from DfES (2002a) Annual School Census Figure 6.3 Full-time equivalent pupil:teacher ratios in maintained schools, England, 1947-2002

Who are the Teachers'?

101

(2000) figures show that secondary PTRs in the UK (17) are lower than in most developed and developing countries, including Canada (22), New Zealand (21), Korea (23) and the Netherlands (19). The example of Korea is particularly intriguing, because Korea is an example of a successful Pacificrim economy whose education system has been held up by some commentators as a model for improvement in the UK. The DiES (2002a) caution that 'while the number of teachers employed relative to the number of pupils enrolled will have an effect on class sizes, not all teachers will necessarily be in the classroom at any one time' (p.7). By its very nature, aggregate data disguises variation within the system. Smithers and Robinson (1991, p. 103) also note that although class size is an important issue in relation to the staffing of schools, it is not '. . . principally a teacher supply problem. It is, in part, a matter of policy, and, in part, a management problem to be resolved by management action'. This suggests that solutions to any perceived 'problems' with teacher recruitment and retention do not necessarily have to come from the 'supply' end of the equation. Changing the organization of schooling can have direct impacts on the requirements (or demand) of the system itself (see below and Chapter 10). Therefore, solutions to any perceived 'problems' with teacher recruitment and retention do not necessarily mean that there is a need for more teachers. In Wales, an examination of the data for the 1980s and 1990s shows that the mean PTR for maintained secondary schools has remained constant for some time. In fact, it was at exactly the same level in the academic year 2000-01 as it was in 1980-1, the earliest year for which PTR data was available. Apart from 1990-1, when it fell to 15, the aggregate PTR has remained at around 17, and actually dropped below 16 in 2004 (National Statistics 2004). Disaggregated to the school level, it is clear that most schools have a PTR of between 16 and 18. By 2002, the school population in Wales had fallen slightly from 499,400 in the previous year to 498,100 - a trend which looks set to continue (National Statistics 2002). The PTR is very similar in all economic regions of the UK, but is slightly lower in Scotland and Northern Ireland (Table 6.5). Despite some accounts of the 'crisis' in teacher supply, the PTR is no higher in London and the south-east of England than elsewhere. In fact, PTRs are highest in Yorkshire and the Humber and the East Midlands, but neither region has been identified by commentators as facing any particular problems in recruiting teachers. Examining data for all school types in England, it is interesting to note that PTRs follow approximately the same trends in most sectors, with the exception of nursery schools and institutions in the independent sector (Figure 6.4). During a period of rapid expansion in the nursery sector, the average PTR followed approximately the same trend as the other sectors, moving steadily downwards over the second half of the twentieth century.

102

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Area Primary Secondary Non-maintained Total

North-east North-west Yorkshire and Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South-east South-west England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK

22 22 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 18 19 22

17 16 17 17 17 18 17 17 17 17 16 13 14 16

11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 10

18 18 19 19 18 18 18 17 18 18 18 15 16 18

Note: Non-maintained schools include CTCs and Academies Source: National Statistics Table 6.5 Pupil:teacher ratios, regions of the UK, 2002/03 It differs, however, in two important respects. The DiES (2002a, pp. 12-13) states that 'the reason for the low pupil:teacher ratio between 1969 and 1972 was a sharp increase in the number of teachers employed in nursery schools'. But whilst this explains the sharp decrease in the nursery PTR from 1969 to 1970 it sheds no light on the increase from 1972 to 1973. This seems most likely to be due to changes or errors in the data collection processes in these years. Independent schools are, of course, not affected by most aspects of government policy relating to education, and more importantly, are isolated from fluctuations in the supply of pupils caused by demographic change. State provision, in contrast, must attend to the task of finding places for all students, and so changes in the size of yearly cohorts may be reflected in changes in PTRs. A similar pattern across different school types in Wales is shown in Table 6.6. Again, the PTRs are very similar over time, but with an overall trend towards improved figures for nursery and primary sectors, and in schools overall. This is peculiar, because these years also include the years of the purported crisis in teacher supply. Rather than represent a crisis, these figures portray teacher supply at least remaining in line with pupil numbers. Another peculiarity lies in the similarity of the trend in each row. During this period, there were many and various policies to assist teacher supply for specific sectors and subjects (see Chapter 1). But as far as we can see, there is no evidence of these policies having any differential impact on different

103

Who are the Teachers'?

Source: Adapted from DfES 2002b Figure 6.4 Full-time equivalent pupihteacher ratios by school type sectors, or even subjects. Whatever is driving teacher supply, it is more general over time and place than are any of these policies. In summary, the long-term trend for PTRs has been downwards. Although there has recently been some variation between home countries and sectors, the last recorded levels were well below those in other developed countries, and well below historical levels. Class sizes

Pupil: teacher ratios, as aggregated data, do not necessarily reflect the actual deployment of teachers within schools (DfES 2002a). Indeed, some commentators in Mansell and Bloom (2002) suggest instead that class sizes are good indicators of teacher shortage, often providing better estimates than teacher vacancies or PTRs. For example, in 2002, despite a drop in Sector

Nursery Primary Secondary Special Independent All

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

19 23 16 7 10 19

18 23 17 7 10 19

18 22 17 7 10 19

17 22 17 7 10 19

17 22 17 7 10 18

17 21 16 7 10 18

17 21 17 7 10 18

Source: Schools in Wales - General Statistics 2001 Table 6.6 PTRs in schools in Wales by type and sector 1996/7-2002/03

104

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

teacher vacancies, there were still infant classes of more than 30 pupils. This was seen by them as evidence of government failure to improve teacher supply. In England, average class sizes in secondary schools increased from 20.7 in 1990 to 22.2 in 2000, before falling slightly to 22.0 in 2002 and 21.8 in 2004. Wales has also experienced an increase in class sizes from 20.2 in 1995 to 21.0 in 2000. As a measure of teacher supply, the rise in class sizes suggests a growing problem. In practice, however, the issue is more complex than this because class sizes, like pupil: teacher ratios, are not always evenly distributed between regions. One might also assume that class size would be related, however, imperfectly, to the pupil:teacher ratio. It is. In fact, the correlation in any year between average regional class sizes and average PTR is between -0.8 and -0.9 (Pearson's R). The relationship is the reverse of the one expected. Areas with more pupils for every teacher, such as the east of England in 2004, tend to have smaller class sizes. Areas with the lowest number of pupils for every teacher, such as inner London in 2004, tend to have the largest class sizes (Figure 6.5). A similar pattern appears in other years. The 2000 data show that areas with higher teacher vacancy figures, such as inner and outer London and the south-east, operate with correspondingly low pupil: teacher ratios but (paradoxically) larger class sizes. Areas with low teacher vacancies, such as north-east and south-west England, operate with higher ratios but smaller class sizes. This shows that neither vacancy rates nor pupil:teacher ratios are good indicators in themselves of class size. The relationship between

Source: National Statistics Figure 6.5 Average class sizes and PTRs, 2004

Who are the Teachers'? 105 the three depends to a large extent on the local organization of schools and the nature of their pupil and teacher intake. At first glance it seems reasonable to expect schools with large class sizes to have high pupil: teacher ratios because they have experienced the highest teacher vacancies and most difficulties in getting teachers, and vice versa. However, these schools also had more teachers than comparable schools in other regions. By contrast, the east of England and the East Midlands had smaller classes than would be expected given the staffing levels. According to NASUWT, the gap between class sizes and staffing in otherwise similar authorities occurred because 'teachers were doing less teaching and more administration' (Slater 2002), a view that is supported by the education chair of the Local Government Association: 'in some schools senior staff are spending far too much time doing administrative tasks which could be done by non-teaching staff and too little time in the classroom' (p.16). This is clearly an administrative or management issue to be resolved by management action, rather than a national policy or demographic problem. The composition of the teaching population Age distribution

The age profile of teachers in England and Wales in the year 2000 is shown in Figure 6.6, and it is important to note that a strikingly similar pattern emerges for all years for which we have data. The largest proportion of the profession is aged between 45 and 54 years. It is, perhaps, unsurprising that there are relatively few teachers under the age of 25, as only those individuals who enrolled on ITT courses almost immediately after leaving postcompulsory or higher education would achieve QTS and be able to enter the profession before that age. As some young people take 'gap' years between their various stages of education, and some individuals do not decide to enter the teaching profession until later in life, the proportionally small representation of under-25s in the profession as a whole should not necessarily be interpreted as evidence of a recruitment problem. It is interesting, however, that interviews with headteachers, conducted as part of a study in the late 1980s, revealed that ITT graduates in this age group, preferably with a PGCE qualification, were the applicants most sought after by those making appointments (Smithers and Robinson 1991). There are several plausible explanations for the small proportion of teachers in the 55 to 59 and 60+ age groups. In particular, early retirement has been available to teachers for some time and the relatively small number of teachers aged 55 and over may be predominantly accounted for by early retirements and/or retirements due to ill-health (the legislation on retirement was changed in the late-1990s, see Chapter 7).

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Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Source: DfES, Database of Teacher Records Figure 6.6 Distribution of full-time teachers by age and gender, March 2000 What are less clear are the reasons for the relatively low proportions of teachers in the 30 to 34 and 35 to 39 age groups. These two groups, combined, account for only slightly more than 20 per cent of all teachers. This could, of course, be explained by historical trends in recruitment to the profession but, as previously mentioned, new entrants are not all graduates in their twenties beginning their first career. Some graduates of ITT courses previously worked in other areas of the labour market or may be mature entrants to higher education. Applicants such as those in their thirties are also the least likely to be offered places on ITT courses. The age profile illustrated in Figure 6.6, then, is unlikely to be solely the product of historical trends in the recruitment of new entrants to the profession. Indeed, if all previous years showed a similar age profile as the year 2000, the most obvious explanation for the observed pattern would be based on teachers leaving the profession in their thirties, perhaps for maternity and child-rearing. The data offers some evidence to support this, as, while the proportion of male teachers aged 25 to 29 is almost identical to those aged 30 to 34, the proportion of female teachers aged 30 to 34 is much smaller than those who are aged 25 to 29. Indeed in 1999/2000, 58 per cent of those who left or moved to part-time service were under 40 years of age, many of whom were women (School Teachers' Review Body 2002). The issue of teacher turnover is considered in Chapter 7. However, the fact that the distribution of teacher ages in Figure 6.6 is similar in all such analyses is sufficient to show that fears of a recruitment 'time bomb' as predicted by Howson (2001b) and others are unwarranted.

Who are the Teachers'?

107

Sex distribution

There are more female than male teachers in both the primary and secondary sectors and, as shown in Chapter 4, the figures for trainee teachers are at least as unbalanced. Therefore, the profession is likely to become more female dominated over time. Between 1985 and 1998 the number of female full-time primary teachers in England and Wales increased by 13 per cent (from 134,000 to 151,000) while the number of male teachers declined by 21 per cent. Similarly, in the secondary sector, the number of full-time male teachers fell by more than 31 per cent (to 88,000), with most of the decline among both sexes occurring during the 1980s (National Statistics 2000, p. 53). By 1999, the overall number of teachers had increased by 1,500 to 189,300. However, most of this increase resulted from a rise in the number of women in the profession and a corresponding drop in the proportion of men (Figure 6.7). Women have always outnumbered men in primary schools but the proportion of women in the secondary sector has also increased, so that by 1999 they made up 53 per cent of fulltime secondary teachers compared with 46 per cent in 1985 (Social Trends 2000). This has important implications for teacher supply, as women are more likely to take breaks in their career for child-rearing (see Chapter 7). More importantly, there are more men than women taking degrees in shortage subjects such as mathematics, science and technology, so this increase in the number of women in teaching is proportionately less likely

Source: National Statistics (2000) Figure 6.7 Changes in the proportion of male and female teachers, secondary level, 1994-2004

108

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

to increase the number of teachers in these shortage subjects. In order to increase the number of teachers in shortage subjects, it is therefore crucial to make teaching attractive to men, or to encourage women to take mathematics, science and technology courses at school and university. With over 70 per cent of the intake to teacher training female (see Chapter 4), the profession is becoming increasingly feminised. Reversing that trend by increasing the number of men who train to become teachers is seen as a key priority by both the TTA, who reported a 15 per cent increase in recruitment of men into primary teacher training in 2003/04 (Teacher Training Agency 2004d) and by commentators who argue that schools, and primary schools in particular, need more male teachers to provide positive male role models for children who may otherwise be brought up in exclusively female environments (Hayes 2002, Berliner 2004, Mills et al. 2004). Ethnicity

As shown in Chapter 4, there is a larger proportion of teacher trainees (7 to 8 per cent) who are of minority ethnic origin than there are in the current teaching workforce (Table 6.7). Members of ethnic minority groups are represented in the teaching population in very nearly the same proportion as they are in the overall population. The exception to this is members of the Asian community. It is this group, which comprises the Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and 'other' categories in the census, that might need further encouragement to see teaching as a worthwhile profession.

Ethnicity White Mixed Asian Black Other Response rate

2001 population census

2003

2004

2005

92 1 .4 2 1 -

95 1 2 2 1 78

95 1 2 2 1 82

95 1 2 2 1 85

Note: The full population census occurs every decade and 2001 is the most recent dataset at time of writing. The First Release data for 2005 only give figures for the teaching workforce from 2003 onwards. Source: National Statistics First Release SFR 20/2005 and Census 2001 Table 6.7 The ethnic composition of the teaching workforce, England 2003-05

Who are the Teachers'?

109

Conclusion

In spite of what has been portrayed in the media, teacher numbers in 2000 were not at their lowest ever level (Slater 2000b). In fact the number of FTE (full-time equivalent) qualified secondary teachers in England in 2000 had risen by over 2 per cent since 1995. The purported 'crisis' at the turn of the century in England and Wales was not the result of a falling number of teachers. Rather it may have reflected concern over a growth in pupil numbers leading to a slight rise in the pupihteacher ratio, and so to a demand for teachers as expressed in the number of teacher vacancies (see Chapter 7). However, this situation was temporary, with the growth rate of teacher numbers generally greater than that for pupils, and pupil:teacher ratios still at a historic low. There is also no evidence of an increasing use of 'unqualified' or 'unsuitably' qualified teachers. A study by Roper (2002) of 536 secondary mathematics teachers reported a remarkable decrease in the use of unqualified staff to teach mathematics in comprehensive maintained schools since the Cockcroft Committee study by the Department of Education and Science in 1981. No other similar large-scale study has been conducted since. Therefore, it is not possible to draw conclusions on whether the situation today is better or worse than in the recent past, even though Smithers and Robinson (2000b) reported that schools were finding it increasingly difficult to recruit 'suitably' qualified teachers to permanent posts. It must be emphasized that their research is based on anecdotal accounts from headteachers, not necessarily borne out by statistics. It is also the case that some foreign teachers are considered 'qualified' only if they have QTS status, so that a foreign teacher who might be highly experienced in teaching mathematics, for example, may still be considered and reported as 'unqualified'. There have been suggestions that teacher shortages have been masked by the use of non-regular teachers (Hodgson 2002, Smithers 2002). Nonregular teachers here refer to supply teachers, teachers on short or parttime contracts and temporary teachers. Some have argued that an increase in their numbers is evidence of a teacher-supply problem (Smithers and Robinson 2000a). In their report Coping with Teacher Shortages they concluded that the reason why shortfalls in recruitment to teacher training did not show up in unfilled vacancies was the increasing use of non-regular teachers. They acknowledged that the use of temporary contracts did not always necessarily mean difficulty in finding suitable candidates. These were used 'to cover extended absences or to create necessary flexibility' (p. 13). This concurs with a recent study by Bird (2002) which suggests that the problem was the reluctance of headteachers to commit themselves to permanent appointments. Therefore, one cannot conclude that the use of non-regular

110

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

teachers was necessarily evidence of a shortage of teachers. The issue of which teachers are in short supply is covered in the next chapter.

7

Which teachers are missing?

In previous chapters we have considered who decides to become a teacher, who succeeds in completing teacher training and gains a teaching post and the resulting characteristics of the teaching force in England and Wales. In this chapter we use the most complete datasets available to us in order to look at which teachers are missing. We estimate any unmet demand for teachers largely in terms of vacancies, teacher turnover and wastage rates. • The number of 'vacancies' and 'wastage' and 'turnover' rates are poor indicators of the demand for teachers. High levels of vacancy and turnover can indicate a thriving profession with high levels of career mobility. • 'Hard to fill' vacancies tend to reflect the regional dispersion of teaching staff rather than any national shortages. There are many unemployed and otherwise employed trained teachers in the UK. • Retirement rates have generally fallen over the last decade, with the only rise linked to a specific change in legislation. There is no retirement time bomb or mass exodus of disillusioned teachers.

Vacancy rates

Advertised vacant posts for teachers are perhaps the most widely used measure of teacher shortages (see Chapter 2 for a definition). Obviously, vacancy figures alone do not tell the full story. A more accurate picture would be revealed by the relative ease or difficulty of filling vacancies. Smithers and Robinson (2000b) have argued that, while increasing use of non-regular teachers (supply teachers and teachers on short-term, part-time or temporary contracts) may be evidence of difficulty in filling vacancies, more revealing would be reported ease or difficulty in filling posts. Anecdotal reports suggested that the teacher supply situation was indeed getting worse because of increasing difficulties in filling vacancies (Dean 2000c), albeit with regional and subject variations.

112

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Smithers and Robinson (2000b) found that the main reasons schools gave for difficulty of filling posts were too few applicants (47 per cent), their poor quality (33 per cent) and mismatched subject specialism (8 per cent). Although their research was one of the largest studies in this area and has been widely quoted, one has to be cautious in drawing conclusions from it for two reasons. First, headteachers were asked how difficult it was to fill part and full-time posts. Answers to such questions can be very subjective as there is no commonly shared view on what would constitute 'difficulty' in this area. Many interviewed voiced their frustration at not being able to get enough applicants to make a good choice, although how many applicants, and of what quality, would be considered sufficient is not clear. One headteacher, for example, almost rejected a candidate because she was given a poor reference though she proved to be a competent teacher, and was given the job only because the headteacher took the risk. Other headteachers might have considered her 'unsuitable' and not made an appointment. Such reported difficulties in filling vacancies and appointing what were perceived as 'unsuitable candidates' were taken as evidence of a teacher shortage. In addition to these problems, few respondents made comparisons to previous years. It is, therefore, difficult to conclude that the general situation is getting worse. Headteachers with different lengths of service might have

Source: DfEE (2002b) Statistics of Education - Teachers in England and DfES (2004) Statistics of Education - Schools in England, DfES (2004) Statistical First Release School Workforce in England. SRF 09/2004

Figure 7.1 Teacher vacancies in maintained secondary schools in England, by number, 1985-2004

Which Teachers are Missing1? 113 very different perspectives both in relation to what they expect from 'good' candidates and how the current situation compares to the past. To remedy such deficiencies we present here simple figures for the n u m b e r of advertised vacancies in recent times. In England, the lowest level of teacher vacancies in the last two decades (at around 0.3 per cent of teaching posts) was experienced between 1991 and 1995, after a period of relatively high teacher vacancies between 1985 and 1990 (Figure 7.1). The much talked about 'crisis' in teacher supply towards the end of the 1990s is represented by the sharp increase in vacancies from 1997 onwards. Between 1998 and 2001 teacher numbers rose by 3.9 per cent while pupil numbers increased by 5.1 per cent and this period saw one of the most dramatic increases in teacher vacancies, from 970 to 2,590 (or around 1.4 per cent of teaching posts). However, it is important to recall in what follows that this increase followed an era of exceptionally low vacancies, and that even at the peak in 2002 vacancies were still lower than in 1991. By 2002, teacher vacancies started to ease - falling to 2,440. The drop was due in part to the narrowing of the gap between teacher and pupil numbers, with teacher numbers increasing by almost 4 per cent between 2000 and 2002 while pupil numbers increased by only 2.5 per cent. Tables 7.1 and 7.2 show the vacancy rates in England over nine years, 1997-2005, broken down by sector and level of appointment. They show the same pattern for both the primary and secondary sectors - starting from a relatively low rate, increasing to a peak rate in 2001 and then declining. A similar pattern appears for headteachers and deputy headteachers, but the peak appears in 1998/9. The links between vacancy numbers and rates across different sectors, and to a lesser extent across different levels of appointment, suggest a Category

1997

1998

1999 2000 2001 2002

2003

2004

2005

All vacancies 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 Head/Deputy 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 Total Number 1,090 1,390 1,370 1,420 2,110 1,800 1,110 780 740 Source: National Statistics First Release SFR 17/2005 Table 7.1 Vacancy rates, primary sector, in England 1997-2005 Category

1997

1998

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

2004

2005

All vacancies 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 Head/Deputy 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 Total Number 730 970 940 1,250 2,590 2,450 2,050 1,630 1,540 Source: National Statistics First Release SFR 17/2005 Table 7.2 Vacancy rates, secondary sector, in England 1997-2005

114

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

common determinant. For example, the primary vacancies cannot be caused chiefly by demand subjects such as maths and science, since subject specialisms are mainly relevant to secondary school teachers alone. Therefore, subject shortages are a less plausible explanation for the linked secondary vacancies as well. Before deciding a separate set of determinants to explain the same pattern in both sectors it is parsimonious to consider a more general explanation first (see below). In Wales, the number of teacher vacancies fell dramatically between the academic years 1990/1 and 1995/6 (Table 7.3) Just as it did in England, and for both the primary and secondary sectors. In a five-year period vacancies decreased to just over one-fifth of their 1990/1 level (unfortunately, data for intervening years are not published). In the academic year 1997/8 a new form (Stats 3) replaced the one previously used (618G) in Wales to collect data on teacher vacancies. Some of the change shown in the data between the years 1996/7 and 1997/8 may, then, be an artefact of a change in the instrumentation used to collect the relevant data, rather than a reflection of any real change. Overall, vacancies in Wales, at around 0.4 per cent of teaching posts, are considerably lower than in the recent past, and lower than in England, but show no clear trend over time. Category

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Secondary 159 Primary/Nursery 240 Both sectors 399

53 35 88

38 61 99

60 105 165

77 49 126

42 26 68

60 39 99

77 31 108

82 43 125

Source: Stats3 survey of LEAs (formerly 618G). Data collected in January each year. Revised form used from January 1998. NafW annual Stats3 survey (formerly 618G) Table 7.3 Teacher vacancies in maintained schools, Wales 1990/1 to 2001/02 Category Vacancy rate secondary % Vacancy rate primary % Number of primary head/ deputy vacancies Number of secondary head/deputy vacancies

1998 1999 2000

2001 2002 2003 2004

-

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

-

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

7

4

5

5

6

7

7

38

12

26

14

22

23

24

Source: National Statistics First Release SDR 56/2005, NAfW annual Stats3 survey (formerly 618G) Table 7.4 Vacancy rates in LEA maintained schools in Wales, 1998-2004

Which Teachers are Missing? 115 As Table 7.4 shows, there is some relationship between the trends in demand for all teachers and for school leaders. However, the growth in demand for teachers at the turn of the century (the 'crisis' era) was not matched by an equivalent increased demand for school leaders. The problem of teacher vacancies in Wales is, like England, largely one of general subject and class teachers rather than school leaders. All economic regions of England and Wales reported an increase in vacancy rates between 1995 and 2001, with the biggest increase in the London, south-east and east of England regions. Estimates for the hardestto-fill vacancies show the same pattern. Vacancies in Wales were lower than any economic region of England, but from 2001 onwards while vacancy rates in England fell, those for Wales continued to rise until 2003 before falling to 74 in 2004 (National Statistics 2004). Table 7.5 shows that the problem is most obviously one for London. As Cunningham (2000) shows for London, teachers are often drawn to teach in a particular place, despite the purportedly national nature of the profession. We return to this point later. In Wales, a recruitment survey carried out by the General Teaching Region Wales North-west Yorkshire and Humberside East Midlands South-west North-east West Midlands East of England South-east Outer London Inner London

2001

2002

2003

0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.1 3.1 4.4

0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.6 3.2

0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.6

Source: STRB 2001 and 618G survey and National Assembly for Wales Stats3 survey Table 7.5 Percentage vacancy rates by government office region, 2001-03 Situation Better Worse Same Can't answer Total

All LEAs in England London LEAs only 15 20 39 31 105

9 4 4 11 28

Source: Smithers 2001a, p. 1 Table 7.6 Is teacher supply better, worse or same as previous year?

116

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Council for Wales (GTC Wales 2001) showed that only a third of schools had any vacancies at all in January 2002 when the survey was carried out. There were at most two vacancies in any school, suggesting that the problem was not as bleak as was originally thought. According to Smithers (2001a), most local education authorities reported that the teacher supply situation was as bad or worse in 2001 as in previous years, and that vacancies were correspondingly harder to fill. Closer analysis of the data, however, shows that of the 105 English LEAs involved, only 20 reported that the situation was worse than the year before (Table 7.6). And of these, one LEA had no vacancies, and one had only one. On what basis these LEAs were claiming that the situation was worse than before is unclear. One of the dangers of questions about perceptions, such as this, is that respondents try to reply for others as well as themselves, influenced perhaps by media accounts (Dean 2000c). Perhaps some of these LEAs were simply feeding back the 'crisis' accounts to the same media. Altogether 54 of 105 LEAs said the situation was better or the same. Of the 39 LEAs which indicated that the situation had remained the same, 8 had no vacancies at all. Only 4 out of the 28 authorities in London reported that their situation had worsened, while 9 indicated that it had got better. Again, rereading the figures suggests that the vacancy problem is not as bleak as sometimes reported. Table 7.7, portraying the more important hard-to-fill vacancies (see Chapter 2), suggests that finding teachers is more of a problem for some kinds of secondary schools than others. One explanation for this is that there is variation in the perceived desirability of working in each of these types of institution. Secondary-modern schools have the highest vacancy rate, whilst independent (fee-paying) schools have the lowest. The former are likely to have poor reputations in comparison to their local grammar schools, and when viewed in terms of both intake and school performance tables. The latter have traditionally been seen as 'high status', although the reality may differ somewhat from public perceptions (Gorard 1997). Such an explanation is reinforced by the unprompted comments of PGCE students during our focus group sessions. One of the reasons several trainee teachers gave for not taking up offers in certain schools was that School type

Secondary modern Comprehensive Selective Sixth-form colleges Private

Percentage

21 18 16 12 5

Source: STRB 2001 Table 7.7 Percentage of vacancies unfilled by school type, 2001

Which Teachers are Missing? 117 they did not want to jeopardize their professional development in the crucial, first few years. For example: My decision was exactly the same as well because I already thought that I would work in a kind of inner-city comprehensive because I went to a school like that myself and I'd always wanted to go back to that kind of environment. But having done my teaching practice in a school in Newport, which was quite challenging, I realized that for my first post I just wanted to be able to develop as an English teacher, not as a manager of behaviour and that really . . . my kind of ideal kind of shifted through the course. (Female PGCE English student) I think the emphasis is on good schools and bad schools and it's a lot of getting into good schools. (Male PGCE English student) I think as well in terms of career development we're all being sort of reminded all the time of the need to look at professional development and how you're going to develop. But I think for a lot of people that puts them off going into schools which they think they might find really difficult because you think well am I going to be able to hack it, am I going to be able to develop or am I just going to spend the whole time banging my head up against the brick wall. (Female PGCE English student) . . . in the end I was in a position where I had two offers, one was from a very inner-city kind of school and one which I found much more suburban and in outer London and in the end exactly the kind of thing . . . I came to the conclusion that do I want to work in this challenging environment and you know kind of me going into like, oh do I want to be in my first two years in slightly more secure environment where you know I can develop in a more professional way, I think I just, it's a purely selfish reason I didn't take the money of inner city but it was for my own sanity I thought I'd rather start my career in a safe environment and handle the situation there. (Female PGCE English student) However, this explanation is clearly incomplete since selective (grammar) schools have around the same level of vacancies as comprehensives. Part of

118

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

the explanation could also be about where minority schools, such as selective and secondary moderns, are. As we have seen, vacancy rates differ between regions as does the mix of types of schools. Wales, for example, has almost no diversity of schooling as no LEAs allow selection, there are no CTCs, Academies or specialist schools. Wales also has the lowest vacancy rate of any region. Patterns such as these should, like the link across sectors in the same regions, be taken into account when considering plausible explanations for changes in vacancy rates (see below). Vacancy rates are also not uniform across all specialist subjects for secondary schoolteachers. Almost all subjects in England and Wales registered increases in vacancy rates between 1995 and 2001 with the exception of history, geography and physical education (School Teachers' Review Body 2001, 2002). In 2001 all subjects registered an increase in vacancies over the previous year. Shortages in traditional shortage subjects, like mathematics, science and information technology remained high. Even subjects like English, history and physical education, which were not previously considered shortage subjects, showed increases in vacancy rates. However, between 2001 and 2005 vacancy rates for almost all subjects fell, just as they did for primary schoolteachers, thus contradicting the predictions of an impending crisis. Subject Maths ICT All sciences Language English Drama History Social sciences Geography RE DT Commercial/business Art, craft and design Music PE Careers Other All

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.4

0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.8 0.7 0.5

0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.5

1.2 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.7

2.1 2.8 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.8 0.8 4.3 1.7 1.5

1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.7 0.8 2.5 2.2 1.4

1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.0 1.4 0.6 1.3 0.6 0 1.8 1.2

1.4 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.6 0 1.6 0.9

1.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0 1.5 0.8

Source: National Statistics First Release SFR 17/2005, DfES annual 618G survey Table 7.8 FT secondary classroom vacancy rates, in England 1997-2005, by subject

Which Teachers are Missing? 119 Table 7.8 shows the vacancy rates for teachers in maintained secondary schools in England, disaggregated by subject. The figures for Wales, where they are available, are similar (See et al. 2004). The vacancy rates represent the proportion of unfilled, FTE posts for each subject, expressed as a percentage. In some cases, changes in these rates appear alarming, but need to be considered in conjunction with the absolute numbers involved. For example, in 2001, Careers was the subject area with the highest vacancy rate, at 4 per cent. However, this represented a recruitment shortfall of only nine teachers in the whole of England, as the total number of careers teachers required is small compared to other subjects. Hardly a crisis. In contrast, figures for the same year show that 407 vacancies were unfilled in the sciences, even though the vacancy rate was just 1.5 per cent. There are no subjects in which vacancy rates are rising year on year. All subjects reached a peak rate in 2001/02, and then declined somewhat. As noted before, we need an explanation for these changes that is not subject specific, not sector specific, nor specific to the level of appointment. Ignoring subjects with low absolute numbers (which tend to be more volatile) the highest vacancy rates in any year after 1999 are for maths, ICT and sciences. Schools report considerable difficulty in filling posts, particularly in physics and chemistry (Smithers and Robinson 2000b), but the scale of the problem in science may be masked by what Smithers and Robinson called the 'biologicalisation' of science (the grouping together of biology, physics and chemistry). The lowest vacancy rates tend to be for history, geography, PE, art, craft and design, always below the overall vacancy rate. The vacancy rate for language teachers is no higher now than it was in 1997. With the exception of languages and careers, the trends for all subjects correlate at above +0.9 (Pearson's R). By 2001 nearly all mainstream school subjects had been declared shortage subjects, which is another way of saying that there were no shortage subjects in particular, merely an increase across the board in terms of advertised vacancies. Summary Although much of the data considered here was labelled as reporting 'unfilled vacancies', it is important to realise that it complies with the STRB definition and, therefore, refers to all advertised vacancies. All of these posts could have been successfully filled. As all labour market movements within the teaching profession will be registered, the data are partly a measure of teacher turnover between posts (see next section). In addition, the level of advertised vacancies can be affected by changes in the law or practice of filling posts. Any remaining vacancies that are impossible to fill may not necessarily mean that there are too few teachers per se, but can indicate a mismatch between the teachers available for work and the types of posts needed to be

120

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

filled. It is possible for relatively high levels of teacher vacancies to coexist with a relatively high level of unemployment among trained teachers. For example, it was reported that in 1999 there were 16,000 trained teachers registered as seeking jobs, many more were unemployed but not receiving Jobseeker's Allowance, and more again were doing other jobs when they would have preferred to be teaching. This concurs with a report in The Times Educational Supplement (TES) that there were many trained teachers who were either seeking jobs or unemployed (Magill 2002). This group represents an important source of teachers that has hitherto been untapped. Therefore, the problem of vacancies is partly one of regional dispersion, rather than total numbers and of quality (as judged by the number of teachers not able to get jobs). Further explanations for the patterns of teacher vacancies are considered in Chapter 10, after a consideration of those leaving their posts and those leaving the teaching profession entirely. Teacher wastage and turnover rates

Teacher supply and demand is determined both by the number of teachers coming in (see Chapter 4) and the number leaving the service. In 1997/8 the number who left service in England and Wales was 37,700, while the number who entered was 34,700. Compounding this apparent problem was the fact that almost 47 per cent of teachers taking early retirement were under 55 years in age. These figures provided an impetus for the panic about teacher numbers described in Chapter 1. A widespread perception was that this trend persisted after 1998, with an increasing number of teachers leaving full-time service resulting in a net loss of teachers (Dean 2000d). In 2002, both DfES and the National Employers' Organization reported an increasing number of teachers leaving the profession and this was seen as contributing to a teacher supply crisis. The reasons given for this were various, including poor pay, workload, increasing bureaucracy and so on. We

investigate these claims using the wastage and turnover figures. Wastage

'Wastage' is denned in terms of teachers who leave full-time service in the maintained sector during the school year (School Teachers' Review Body 2002). Some of these may not leave teaching at all, but either continue into part-time service, move to the further or higher-education sectors or teach in fee-paying institutions. The number of teachers who leave the service entirely include those who retire, resign due to ill-health, seek alternative employment, look after young children and a variety of other situations. This definition of 'wastage' is, therefore, slightly misleading, as it runs counter to popular uses of the term. Teachers moving to the further or higher-education sectors, or to special or fee-paying schools, are counted as

Which Teachers are Missing? 121 'wastage'. It is unlikely, however, that students in such institutions (or their parents) would define their tutors as such. In the case of employment in post-sixteen institutions, teachers are merely moving from one sector of state-funded education to another. Although independent schools are not state-funded, they could be argued to be providing a public service and teachers working in these institutions are responsible for the education of a substantial proportion (approximately 7 per cent) of UK-domiciled pupils. Most independent schools require their teachers to have been professionally trained, and there is no alternative 'private' route to QTS. Another group of teachers leaving the profession, and thus defined as 'wastage', are those who move from teaching and take on other roles in the education system. Educational psychologists, for example, are required to have several years of classroom experience before they can begin their further training. Those aspiring to take on this role are recorded as wastage once they leave their teaching role, despite their training and service being a necessary prerequisite for beginning their continued professional development as psychologists. Another example of wastage are those teachers who leave to work for local education authorities or national government departments. It would be difficult to argue that the local or national administration of education might not benefit from the employment of some staff with classroom experience. The same argument could be made for employees of examination boards. There are no particularly remarkable trends in wastage rates in data for the years 1990/1 to 2000/01. Although the proportion of teachers leaving the profession rose year on year from 1992/3 to 1997/8, the change in legislation affecting figures in 1998/9 obscures the extent to which this may, or may not, have continued over the following two years. It should be noted, however, that the wastage rate at its peak in 1997—8 (10.3 per cent) was only marginally higher than in 1990/91 (10.2 per cent). Turnover 'Turnover' is defined as teachers in full-time service in the maintained sector who are not in full-time service in the same establishment the following year (School Teachers' Review Body 2002). It constitutes all retirements and resignations and includes wastage and transfers to other institutions within the same sector. Turnover rates do not necessarily reflect the number of teachers actually leaving the teaching profession, but there is a tendency for commentators to confuse turnover with wastage. Because teachers must resign from their post before they can take up another, it means that, theoretically, turnover rates can increase although the number of teachers remains the same. To some extent, therefore, high turnover can be seen as a symptom of a vibrant and healthy teaching profession.

122

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

The turnover rate for full-time (secondary) teachers in England and Wales dropped from 9 per cent of those in post in 1991 to 7 per cent in 1993, and rose to 11 per cent in 1997 before dropping back to 8 per cent in 1998. Thereafter, it increased to 13 per cent in 2000,14 per cent in 2001, and settled to below 13 per cent in 2002 (National Employers' Organization for School Teachers 2002, School Teachers' Review Body 2004). In Wales, the turnover rate was slightly lower, rising from 7 per cent in 1993 to 11 per cent in 1997. It fell to 6 per cent in 1998 before rising to 8 per cent in 2000, 7 per cent in 2001 and 8 per cent again in 2002. The high turnover rate in both home countries in 1997 was partly due to the changes in Teachers' Pension Scheme in April 1997 and September 1997, which resulted in more teachers taking early retirement in 1997 and 1998 than in previous years. The subsequent decrease in early retirements, thus, resulted in a lower turnover rate in subsequent years (see below). Until 1998 the number of teachers leaving full-time service in England and Wales was consistently higher than the number who entered. From 1998 onwards, however, despite an increasing number of teachers leaving full-time service, inflows have been higher than outflows. It should be noted that the data are accompanied by the following warning, specifying that 'the wastage rate for those aged 50+ in 1997 and 1998 reflects the increase in early retirements brought about by changes to the Teachers' Pension Scheme in April 1997 and September 1997. The subsequent decrease in early retirements resulted in a much lower wastage rate in 1999' (National Empoyers' Organization 2002). Table 7.9 portrays an annual increase in the number of teachers resigning. These data were commonly interpreted as further evidence of the 'crisis' described in Chapter 1. However, apart from the blip over 1997/8, Teacher resignations

1994

1995 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Total 25,170 26,260 27,260 34,860 25,830 34,840 46,190 47,930 resignations Known 23,950 24,830 25,810 32,610 23,360 31,230 42,310 43,120 destinations Percentage 95 95 95 94 90 90 92 90 known about Percentage 55 57 56 58 48 48 43 41 leaving education Source: Adapted from National Employers' Organization (2002, Table 4) and School Teachers' Review Body (2004) Table 7.9 Resignations of LEA full-time permanent resigning teachers, all sectors, England and Wales, 1994-2001

Which Teachers are Missing? 123 two other points should be noted. The percentage of resigning teachers whose destination we know about declines over time, making it increasingly more difficult to judge trends. Additionally, the percentage of resigning teachers leaving education/teaching is dropping even faster. This means that a large proportion of the increased number of resigning teachers is explained simply by teachers moving to other posts. Since teachers have to resign to move to another school, much of the growth in resignations represents more movement between schools. This is not, in itself, a bad thing and could be considered indicative of a thriving profession. This is confirmed by the figures in Table 7.10, showing an increasing proportion of those leaving posts simply taking another post in LEA service. By 2001, over half of resigning teachers were moving jobs within LEA service, and a further 3 per cent were taking other jobs within education, including those in independent schools such as CTCs, in other sectors such as sixthform colleges and higher education or even overseas. None of these can really be considered wastage. Amongst resigning teachers who moved to positions outside LEA schools but within the UK education system, the most common destination, for every year between 1994 and 2001, was an independent (fee-paying) school. In 1994 only 43 per cent (430 of 1,010) of resignations leading to employment in non-LEA institutions were comprised of those taking posts in the independent sector, but by 2001 this had risen to 67 per cent (1,200 of 1,780) (National Employers' Organization 2002). Part of this increase is explained by the increase in the proportion of schools deemed independent of LEA control (Gorard et al. 2003).

Teacher destination

1994

Within LEA 38 service Other education 3 Ot h er Other employment Retirement 37 6 Maternity 5 Other Not known 5 Total

1995 1996

1997

1998

1999 2000

36

37

36

44

43

3 Ot h er

3 Ot h er

3 4

4 6

38 5 5 5

35 6 7 5

37 5 6 6

17 6 9 10

2001

49

52

4

3

6

6

3 4

17 6 9 10

15 5 8 8

13 4 9 10

25,170 26,260 27,260 34,860 25,830 34,840 46,190 47,930

Source: Adapted from National Employers' Organization (2002) and School Teachers' Review Body (2004) Table 7.10 Destinations as a percentage of those resigning, all sectors, England and Wales, 1994-2001

t

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

During the same time period those moving to employment in further or higher education institutions rose in number from 210 to 320, but fell proportionately from 21 to 19 per cent. The proportion of teachers leaving LEA schools to work in sixth-form colleges varied from a high of 70 per cent of leavers in 1994 to a low of just 40 per cent in 199*7. Also of significance are those who left teaching for employment outside education or for non-employment. The number of primary and secondary teachers who left teaching for other employment and non-employment in England and Wales increased from 1,950 in 1994 to 10,580 in 2002. Not only does such a trend suggest an increasing propensity for those quitting the profession to be leaving education completely, it represents more than a fivefold increase in this type of resignation in just eight years. While this may appear rather alarming, those who left education constituted a decreasing proportion of the total who resigned. Most (and an increasing proportion of) resignations were the result of people switching schools or moving to other LEAs. In 2002, in the secondary sector in England and Wales such teachers made up 60 per cent of all who resigned. The trends are even clearer in Table 7.11, and the School Teachers' Review Body (2004) confirms that these trends and patterns continue. The increase in the absolute number of resignations is partly accounted for by the simple increase in teacher numbers over time (see Chapter 6), and mostly by an increase in teacher mobility between similar jobs in schools. Retirement rates have fallen since 1997, and some retirement, like the everpresent maternity leave, is in any case inevitable. The School Teachers' Review Body (2002, 2004) surveys of teacher resignations and recruitment Turnover rate Within LEA service Other .education Other employment Retirement Maternity Other Not known Total

1994 1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

3

3

3

4

4

4

6

7

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

3 1 1 0 8

3 0 1 1

3 1 1 1

4 1 1 1

2 1 1 1

2 1 2 1

2 1 2 1

2 1 2 1

9

9

12

9

9

13

13

Note: Cells with zero represent turnover of less than 0.5 per cent Source: National Employers' Organisation (2002) and School Teachers' Review Body (2004) Table 7.11 Turnover rates as a percentage of LEA full-time permanent teachers, all sectors, England and Wales, 1994-2001

Which Teachers are Missing? 125

show that between 1991 and 2002 the proportion of full-time permanent teachers in the secondary sector (for England and Wales) retiring for age reasons remained reasonably stable at between 0.3 and 0.5 per cent. Those retiring for health reasons showed a substantial drop from 1997 to 1998, partly due to the redefinition of ill health introduced on 1 April 1997. From that date retiring teachers must be regarded as permanently unfit to teach, not just unable to teach in the foreseeable future. One possible cause for concern in the future is a continuation in the so far limited growth of teachers moving to an unspecified 'other' destination. This could constitute evidence of an increasing tendency towards a particular direction for resigning teachers, but is more likely to be created by problems with data collection (such as item non-response). The proportions are relatively small but large enough to be greater than those accounted for by maternity, and so certainly not negligible. A more worrying immediate concern is the relatively high proportion of women under the age of 40 who left the profession or moved to part-time service (DiES 2003). The most important question is how many of these women (some of whom left for childcare reasons) will return. Studies in the United States, for example, suggest teachers who leave the profession are unlikely to return, and that the small proportion of teachers who returned after a career break did not contribute significantly to the overall supply (Kennedy 1992). Some commentators have claimed that most returners never teach full-time again (Ross 2002), but earlier official figures suggest that returners to teaching represent an increasingly important source, rising from 30 per cent of total entrants in the early 1980s to near 50 per cent by 1990 (DES 1990). Regional variation

As with vacancies, the highest turnover rate for maintained (secondary) schools is in Greater London, where it was 17 per cent in 2000 and 16 per cent in 2002 (School Teachers' Review Body 2002, 2004). In the same year, and again as with vacancies, Wales experienced the lowest turnover rate at 8 per cent in both 2000 and 2002. In general, female teachers have a marginally higher turnover rate than males. Vacancies and turnover are related, since any resignation is likely to lead to an advertised vacancy for a replacement. Where teachers are simply choosing to move jobs then neither increased vacancy nor turnover rates are indications of any crisis. We can estimate the wastage rate from the figures forming Table 7.11 by taking the overall turnover rate and deleting within LEA service changes and those for whom the destination is not known. This shows that, in round figures, the wastage rate in 1994 was 5 per cent of teachers in post and in 2001 it was still 5 per cent. The rate rose to 7 per cent in 1997 due to the pension changes, but dropped to 4 per cent for the two succeeding years. Once these

126

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

figures are evened out, there is remarkably little change over time, and certainly no indications of a crisis of teachers leaving the profession in droves. The effect of the pension policy change can be seen clearly when the data is disaggregated by age group (Figure 7.2). The wastage rate for teachers aged 50+ rises from 1996 to 1998 before falling sharply between 1998 and 1999, while the figure for those under 50 actually rises slightly in that year (note that the figures for wastage calculated by DfES differ in scale from those above). However, with that single dramatic fall accounted for, no other clear trends emerge. Indeed, the wastage rate for teachers younger than 50 - a key indicator - was fractionally lower in 2000 (8 per cent) than in 1991 (8.1 per cent). However, it will be some years before sufficient data is available to allow an assessment of the longer term trends for the over 50s. The effect of the change in pensions legislation is, again, evident in Figure 7.3. What is also noticeable is the extent to which the wastage rates between the nursery and primary and secondary sectors are correlated (Pearson's R=+0.82). There are many reasons why it would be reasonable to expect differences in wastage rates between (as well as within) sectors. Working conditions vary according to the age of pupils taught and, at an aggregate level, the social and educational backgrounds of teachers vary, in certain respects, according to

Source: DfES, Database of Teacher Records Figure 7.2 Wastage rates for full-time teachers, England and Wales 1989/90 to 1999/2000, by age group

Which Teachers are Missing"?

127

the sector they are employed in (see preceding chapters). What is unclear, however, is why the changes in wastage rates for the three sectors tend to be in the same direction over the course of any given year, and why such a high correlation exists between both the direction and magnitude of the changes. This suggests the influence of factors affecting the whole teaching profession, such as the changes in pension regulations, rather than factors affecting only one sector, such as changes in classroom conditions. Despite the alarms about an overall decline in teacher numbers, earlier DfEE figures showed that inflows had actually been higher than outflows. In 1999/2000 the number of full-time qualified teachers who left the secondary maintained sector in England was 11,600, whilst inflow was 13,500 (DfEE data includes England only from 1999/00 onwards). One reason is that the increase in outflow was due to a higher number of people moving from full-time service to part-time service. According to the STRB figures on England and Wales, there was also an increase in the number of teachers who have moved to schools in other LEAs or non-LEA institutions. This may explain why the popular perception runs counter to that of the official statistics. In other words, an increasing number of teachers were leaving schools, but not necessarily the profession. Many were still in teaching.

Source: DfES, Database of Teacher Records. Figure 7.3 Wastage rates for full-time teachers, England and Wales 1989/90 to 1999/2000, by sector

128

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Similar events were also experienced in the USA where movement of teachers from one school to another accounted for half of the turnover the schools experienced (Ingersoll 2001). 'Natural' wastage due to retirement or maternity accounted for the next largest group. Total resignation and turnover rates can thus give a misleading impression of the state of the teaching profession. Those teachers moving from their present school to a similar one do not, presumably, present a major problem for the profession and cannot be reasonably considered as constituting wastage. Retirements, whether due to ill health or reaching the normal retirement age, are usually unavoidable, as is maternity. It is only other types of resignation that can either be considered a problem or become the subject of any strategies to increase retention in the teaching profession. Increased devolution to the four home countries of the UK has led to an apparent rise in wastage of teachers at every stage. The number of teachers trained in Wales, for example, who find work in England is rising every year. These cases are viewed in Wales as wastage because while their training is paid for from the budget of the National Assembly for Wales these teachers do not teach in Wales (although they may do in the future, of course). A much smaller proportion are trained in the other home countries and then teach in Wales. The cross-border movements are unbalanced partly because of the specific requirement of the Curriculum Cymraeg, which means that teachers trained in Wales are considered suitable to teach in England but not vice versa. There are also many more schools in England than there are in Wales and, consequently, more employment opportunities. The extent to which this issue of 'outflow' is deemed a problem is debatable. Previous to devolution, when England and Wales were in many respects treated as a single financial and administrative unit, a degree of movement between these countries would not have been viewed as a major problem unless it was causing a great imbalance in supply and demand. Summary

An increase in turnover rates does not necessarily mean that more people are leaving the profession. Because teachers have to resign from a post before they can take up another, turnover rates can increase although, theoretically, the number of teachers may remain the same, or may even be higher in a period of school mergers and closures or local authority reorganizations. Such trends probably explain the increase in turnover rate. The increase in outflow is explained by the higher number of people moving from full-time service to part-time service. Increased change of this type with no net losses may be considered symptomatic of a healthy internal labour market within the profession. However, a high and growing turnover rate does have accounting implications for the vacancy rate. The higher the turnover, the higher the vacancy rate will appear in any snapshot figure,

Which Teachers are Missing? 129 without necessarily reflecting the difficulty with which posts were filled, or obtained. Prognosis

Following the purported crisis leading up to 2001, there was some good news suggesting that the crisis was passing, or indeed had never come to pass. Applications for teacher training were reported to have increased in 2003, by 14 per cent for secondary and 19 per cent for primary courses in England, and by 6 per cent and 14 per cent in Wales (Thornton 2003). By 2004, despite a drop in the number of pupils and in the number of available teaching jobs, the numbers of trainee teachers was still increasing (Abrams 2004, Paton 2005b). TTA figures showed a record number of student teacher numbers, with over 41,000 starting in 2004 - the highest since at least 1975 (Lee 2004). There are more older applicants and those seeking a change of career to replace those missing in the middle age bands. Teaching is so popular that 11 per cent of graduates now consider teaching, making it the third most popular graduate job. The quality, as well as the number, of new teachers has also increased. In some areas there are no shortages, in others there is oversupply. While the relative shortage in London and south-east England remains, this is less of a problem than in many other occupations. In fact, 93 per cent of all organizations report recruitment difficulties, which are especially acute in nursing, medicine and social work (Revell 2003). Additionally, a recent OECD (2005a) study showed that teachers in the UK are relatively highly paid and face rapid promotion prospects compared to their counterparts in other countries (see Chapter 8). However, rather than portraying this as good news the dominant account is still of crisis. There are now concerns that the supply of trained teachers is far greater than demand (Lee 2004), with so many teachers being trained that it is difficult to find school placements for them (Paton 2004). More than one quarter of all new primary teachers are reported as not being able to find a job in England. There has been a drop of 43,000 in the number of primary pupils (Paton et al. 2004) with over 100 primary schools per year shutting in England as a consequence (Lepkowska 2005a). One LEA reported over 100 applicants for one primary teaching post, and over 60 applicants is common in other LEAs (Lucas and Stewart 2005). From an apparently critical shortage of teachers in 2001, we have moved to an apparently critical oversupply of teachers by 2003-04. Of 604 dismissals in one area in 2003, nearly all were attributable to falling pupil rolls (Arkin 2003). In addition, concern has moved to the distribution of teachers between types of schools, with reports that school performance data is leading to an exodus of high-quality teachers from schools in challenging circumstances (Lepkowska 2005b, see also above). But even as the oversupply of teachers

130

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

is mourned, people are already beginning to look ahead to a new era of shortages (Garner and Russell 2005). The introduction of up to £3,000 in 'variable' top-up fees in HE from 2006 in England does not currently exempt PGCE students in the same way as did the annual £1,500 fee it replaced. Will students in their fourth year be prepared to borrow more for their fees? If not then the supply of teachers is, once again, under threat (Lepkowska 2005c). The new entitlement to a day per week out of the classroom for training in each new teacher's induction year makes new recruits more expensive than some experienced teachers, and they find it harder to get jobs. The growth in primary trainees and low vacancy rates mean many qualified teachers now apparently work as classroom assistants, on half the pay (Bloom 2005). These new crises may have no more substance than the teacher shortage of 1997-2001. Indeed, there are still reports of shortages with one large LEA unable to find enough headteachers for their primary schools and so having to share (Stewart 2005). At time of writing both shortage and oversupply of teachers co-exists, with the same journalist reporting both in separate stories in the same issue of the same newspaper (Paton 2005c, Stewart and Paton 2005). Conclusion

The media reports cited in Chapter 1 have suggested that an increasing number of teachers are leaving the profession, and this is seen as contributing to a teacher supply crisis. The reasons given for this are various, including poor pay, workload, increasing bureaucracy and so on. But our analysis shows that, contrary to what the media portrayed, the majority of teachers who left their posts (or 'resigned') did not leave teaching, but moved to other schools within the state sector. One of the biggest studies ever conducted on teacher loss found that the majority of those who left the maintained sector (38 per cent) were leaving for teaching in another secondary school (Smithers 1990). Ill health and early retirement accounted for the next largest proportion of resignations (22 per cent). In comparison, those leaving for alternative employment, including training for a new job, made up just over one-tenth (11 per cent) of all teacher movement. A similar study by Ross (2000) found that the majority of teachers (53 per cent) leaving teaching posts in six London LEAs were moving to other teaching posts. Only 20 per cent of resigning teachers were leaving for work outside teaching, while 14 per cent were planning to take a career break and 11 per cent were retiring. The indicators of teacher supply and demand in the UK seem to have been misunderstood or perhaps misused by media, policy and even academic commentators. There was no especial crisis at the turn of the century, and there is none now. There is no retirement time bomb, no mass

Which Teachers are Missing? 131

exodus of disillusioned teachers, no drop in teacher quality or qualifications, no worsening shortage and no lack of new trainees. The next section of the book looks overseas to compare this situation with the problems of teacher supply in other countries.

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INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVES

ON TEACHER QUALITY

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8

The views of the employers

This section of the book consists of two chapters. So far in the book, we have focused on the situation in England and Wales. It is interesting to consider the extent to which there are problems of teacher supply more generally. The OECD's recent research initiative has highlighted teacher supply and demand as an area of international concern (OECD 2005a). This chapter considers the views of headteachers, principals and school administrators on teacher recruitment and retention, using data collected from 25 countries as part of the PISA 2000 study. Chapter 9 focuses on the USA. We show how there is some variation between countries in terms of perceptions of the impact of teacher shortages, inadequacy and turnover. Surprisingly, however, differences between schools in terms of perceived problems with teachers are not related to the size, location and other characteristics of the schools. • Headteachers in all developed countries express considerable concern over levels of teacher turnover and shortages, and report that these problems hinder student progress. • However, the lack of variation within countries between the types and locations of schools apparently suffering from poor teacher supply suggests that the headteachers may be reporting their beliefs about a more general situation rather than a problem in their own schools.

Introduction

In 2000, the OECD and UNESCO revisited the debate surrounding teacher supply and demand with the publication of Teachers for Tomorrow's Schools (OECD/UNESCO 2000). The OECD followed this report by initiating a large-scale investigation into teacher recruitment, retention and quality, under the title Attracting, Developing and Retaining Effective Teachers (OECD

2005a). The context for this activity was the assertion that amongst OECD member nations 'policies aimed at attracting, recruiting, retaining

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and developing teachers have become a central concern' (OECD 2002, p. 5). For example, survey data from the OECD Survey of Upper Secondary Schools indicates that school principals report 'serious concerns' with the recruitment of well-qualified teachers to shortage subjects such as mathematics, languages and science (OECD 2004). The problems associated with an aging teacher workforce, concerns that too many teachers do not hold full teaching certification and fears about whether teachers are equipped with the skills and knowledge for the teaching demands of a modern society have all helped ensure that teacher issues are firmly on the policy agenda of many OECD member nations. Recruiting and retaining highly qualified teachers is central to these nations' vision of what reform of the profession should entail. Teacher quality, it seems, is the 'single most important school variable influencing student achievement' (OECD 2005a). Policy initiatives aimed at improving the quality of the teacher workforce vary according to the public-service traditions of the nations involved, but common directions have included: an emphasis on teacher quality; more flexible approaches to teacher education; the transformation of teaching to a knowledge rich profession; and efforts to make schools more responsible for the management of their teaching personnel. Some countries, such as Spain, report few problems with the numbers of individuals interested in becoming teachers (Vallejo et al. 2003). Others, such as the Netherlands, report growing shortages of teachers just like the UK (Gray and Behan 2005), and have increased the number of alternative routes into the profession and have promoted teaching as a possible second or temporary career choice (Ministry of Culture, Education and Science 2004). As we show in the next chapter, the USA has responded to the challenge of ensuring that every one of its teachers is 'highly qualified', by instigating a programme of accountability-based reform that emphasizes teachers' subject content knowledge over their pedagogical skills. While such studies of policy initiatives can offer us some insight into the concerns and priorities that affect different countries, they tell us little about the realities of working in individual schools. Those charged with recruiting and retaining teachers are primarily concerned with their immediate local circumstances. This chapter looks at the ways in which practitioners view contemporary concerns in the area of teacher recruitment, retention and quality. The main questions addressed are: • Do headteachers perceive teacher shortage or turnover as hindering students' learning? • Are these areas related to the different characteristics of schools and their geographical locations?

The Views of the Employers 137 As outlined in Chapter 2, the data used for this analysis was retrieved from the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (OECD 2001a). A fuller discussion of the results for each country can be found in White and Smith (2005). Teacher shortages and turnover Table 8.1 shows the percentage of school leaders in each country who reported that teacher shortages or turnover were hindering student progress and attainment in their schools. In general, the problems of Country

Shortages (%) Turnover (%)

Korea Sweden Iceland Austria Russian Federation Italy Finland Spain Portugal Germany France Luxembourg Switzerland Canada Norway Ireland Greece Denmark Japan Australia New Zealand Belgium United Kingdom United States Netherlands

41 66 65 26 72 59 65 30 48 68 36 50 33 57 62 53 69 42 58 58 55 47 64 43 80

15 81 68 52 84 73 68 52 72 72 47 68 49 62 57 58 88 31 42 69 61 74 62 69 74

Shortages or turnover (%) 45 88 79 61 91 84 81 58 79 78 54 67 61 79 76 74 87 50 70 78 68 76 73 58 82

Note: Results are presented in descending order of the response rates shown in Chapter 2 Source: PISA 2000 Table 8.1 Reports of teacher shortages and turnover hindering student progress, by country

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shortage and turnover are strongly related (linear correlation of R=+0.6), although a few countries such as Korea and Austria apparently have substantially more of one problem than the other. What is clear, from the final column showing the percentage reporting at least one of the two problems, is that concern over the teacher workforce is an international phenomenon among developed countries. Headteachers in nearly all schools in Sweden, Greece and the Russian Federation have reported problems. Even in Korea and Denmark, where the problems are less, around 50 per cent of schools have reported either a problem of teacher shortage or high turnover to such an extent that student learning is hindered. At this aggregated level, teacher turnover is an even more widespread problem for schools than shortages, but there is greater variation in reports of turnover - from 15 per cent in Korea to 88 per cent in Greece. Overall, however, the differences in the final column are not much larger than the differences in the overall response rates between countries. It is also interesting to note that the situation in the UK is unremarkable in terms of either indicator. If there is indeed a crisis of teacher supply, as portrayed in Chapter 1, then a similar crisis appears in Belgium, Portugal, Germany and Australia, for example, and a worse crisis appears in Greece, Sweden, the Russian Federation, Italy and Finland. We have shown in preceding chapters that the situation in the UK has been exaggerated by commentators, and that the aggregated reports of concerns by school leaders can give a misleading impression - witness the UK education authority reporting that teacher vacancies were now harder to fill, despite not actually having any vacancies to fill. School characteristics and teacher shortages/turnover

There was little consistent difference in any country between the size of schools reporting problems with teacher supply and those not reporting it. The largest difference was in Australia, where the average school size measured in the number of students was 900 for schools without a reported shortage of teachers, and 722 for all others (effect size 0.5). It may be that larger schools tend to be in areas, such as cities, where it is easier to recruit staff, or it may be that larger schools simply have greater resources to provide temporary cover for missing teachers in ways that do not hinder student progress. The largest difference in terms of teacher turnover was reported in Ireland. The average school size here was 491 for schools without a reported problem of turnover of teachers, and 603 for all others (effect size 0.5). The direction of difference is the reverse of that for teacher shortage. Larger schools in Ireland, and elsewhere, were more likely to report problems caused by teacher turnover. Perhaps the explanation is simply that larger schools have proportionately more turnover and so, on

tttt

139

completing the questionnaire, their headteachers were more likely to recall a recent incident. There was little consistent difference in any country between the pupilrteacher ratio (PTR) of a school and its reporting of teacher supply problems. The two largest differences in terms of shortages were in Belgium and the UK. In Belgium, the average PTR of schools reporting no special problem of teacher shortage was 10, and the PTR of schools reporting a problem was 8 (effect size 0.5). In the UK, the situation was reversed. The average PTR of schools reporting no special problem of teacher shortage was 15, and the PTR of schools reporting a problem was 16 (effect size 0.5). Given that these examples give reverse directions of difference, the differences are small in absolute terms, and the survey response rates of Belgium and the UK were 69 per cent and 61 per cent, it seems that the level of PTR is not strongly related to reported problems of supply. Belgium operates with a much lower PTR than the UK. The largest difference in terms of teacher turnover was in Spain. Schools reporting no special problem of teacher turnover operated with an average PTR of 17, whereas schools reporting a problem had PTRs of 12 (effect size 1.0). Given the high survey response rate in Spain, this difference is robust. However, the direction of the difference means that the problem might be less serious. Unless there is a particular reason for the scale of differences of PTRs in the participating schools, such as special educational needs provision, it is of less concern that it is schools operating with many more teachers per student who report the greater problems with staff turnover. Once again, there was little consistent difference in any country between the area of location of a school and its reporting of teacher supply problems. In both Spain and Sweden, schools located in small towns and villages with populations of less than 15,000 people were more likely to report experiencing difficulties with teacher shortages, compared to schools situated in more heavily populated areas (Tables 8.2 and 8.3). In Sweden, for example, headteachers of 58 schools located in villages or small towns reported teacher shortages as hindering student progress, compared to an expected 48 schools assuming that shortages were evenly distributed across locations. Both Spain and Sweden had high response rates, so it is reasonable to assume that in some instances schools in more isolated locations appear School location

Village/small town Town City

Expected number

Observed number

13 18 23

18 22 14

Source: PISA 2000 Table 8.2 Number of schools reporting problems with teacher shortages, Spain

140 School location

Village/small town Town City

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues Expected number

Observed number

48 33 18

58 28 13

Source: PISA 2000 Table 8.3 Number of schools reporting problems with teacher shortages, Sweden to have greater problems with teacher recruitment. Less densely populated areas will have fewer potential applicants already residing within travelling distance of any particular school. Teachers may generally be reluctant to move to rural areas for employment, or concerned that schools in sparsely populated areas may be especially vulnerable to staff cuts or closures. There are also the employment opportunities for spouses and partners to consider, as well as the education and social life of children. Compared to other countries in the European Community, both Sweden and Spain have low population densities, 22 inhabitants per km2 for Sweden in 2001 and 80 for Spain. The average for 15 EU nations in 2000 was 119, with Germany at 231 and the Netherlands at 474 inhabitants per km2. However, low population density by itself is not a sufficient explanation for these differences, because they do not appear for Finland, with only 17 inhabitants per km2 in 2001 (Eurostat 2004), or Australia with only three (Statistics Canada 2004). What is surprising is the lack of a relationship between problems associated with location and with school size (see above). There was no relationship between location and schools' reports of teacher turnover problems. In terms of types of school reporting teacher shortages, the biggest difference was in the UK (Table 8.4). Headteachers in schools that selected students by ability, such as grammar schools, were considerably less likely to report teacher shortages as a problem (cross-product ratio 3.3). This is some slight evidence of a school effect on teacher supply, but it is important to recall that the UK had only a 60 per cent response rate and that the headteachers are not reporting shortages per se but whether shortages have an impact on student learning. There was no relationship between academic selection and schools' reports of teacher turnover problems. School type Shortage No shortage

Not selective Selective

171 38

68 50

Source: PISA 2000 Table 8.4 Number of schools reporting problems with teacher shortages by type, UK

The Views of the Employers

141

Conclusions

This international comparison has shown that there is widespread concern about teacher shortages and teacher turnover in most developed countries so much so that most school leaders believe these problems to be hindering the progress of their students. Greece, Sweden, the Russian Federation, Italy, Finland and the Netherlands have among the highest rates of reported problems. The situation in the UK, dealt with in preceding chapters, is unremarkable in international terms. Very little of the variation either within or between countries is linked to the available data on school characteristics, such as location, size and selection by ability. This is interesting, as it provides no evidence to suggest that there is a 'school effect' in the teaching labour market. Reported problems are also unrelated to other national characteristics, such as being part of the euro economy, or local unemployment rates. This is a point taken up again in Chapter 10. Of course, as the figures presented here are reports of the views of headteachers, we cannot say to what extent these perceptions of teacher problems are supported by more prosaic data on teacher numbers, retention and quality. As we have shown in previous chapters, there is little clear justification for the most widespread concerns about teacher numbers in the UK. Perhaps the same caution applies to some of these other countries as well. In the next chapter we look in more detail at the situation in the USA.

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9

Can we require 'highly qualified' teachers? The experience of the USA

Previous chapters have suggested that concerns about the quality and effectiveness of teachers are at least as widespread, and perhaps as little justified, as concerns about simple teacher shortages. In this chapter we consider how the USA is addressing the issue of teacher quality by holding schools and school districts accountable for ensuring that all teachers of core subjects are 'highly qualified' by the end of the 2005-06 school year. Part of the hugely important No Child Left Behind Act, this 'highly qualified' teacher requirement links billions of dollars of federal funding to ensuring that schools and school districts develop strategies to ensure that they meet these targets. Here we consider how successful this mandate has been and whether any lessons can be applied to other countries, such as the UK. What emerges is a case study of the difficulties faced by even the apparently simple policy of requiring high-quality teachers by law. • A shortage of high-quality teachers has been seen in some circles as a long-time feature of US education. • An apparently influential, and controversial, nationwide policy of requiring highly qualified teachers in the USA has actually been implemented in markedly different ways in different states. • There is some doubt whether states will manage to comply with legislation in time, and considerable difficulties in establishing whether they have managed to do so or not.

Introduction

Over 20 years ago, the US government published a searing indictment of the state of the American public school system. The document was called A Nation at Risk and it forcefully condemned the 'rising tide of mediocrity' that was eroding the nation's schools:

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If an unfriendly foreign power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war (National Commission on Excellence in Education 1983). It was to become one of the most influential US education reform documents of the twentieth century (Ravitch 2003). Along with stagnating levels of pupil performance in American public schools, it was the quality of the teaching profession that excited the most attention. The authors of the report were particularly concerned that teachers were being drawn disproportionately from the lowest quartile of graduating high-school and college students, and that in certain shortage subjects, such as mathematics, science and English, teachers were simply not qualified to teach at all. Among its recommendations was a call to strengthen the teaching profession by raising its standards for training, entry and professional development one aspect of this was the requirement that prospective teachers take fewer courses in education and more in the subjects they expect to teach. According to some commentators, little has changed in the two decades following the publication of A Nation at Risk (Koret Task Force on K-12 Education 2003). Teachers are still being drawn from the bottom ranks of college graduates, and while teacher salaries may have risen in real terms since the early 1980s, they still lag behind that of other professions (Hoxby 2003, Hanushek and Rivkin 2004, Manzo 2005). In 2000, only 63 per cent of grade 7-12 (equivalent to the UK National Curriculum Years 8-13) mathematics teachers nationwide had both a major qualification in their field and full teacher certification. In the state of Nevada only 38 per cent of teachers met this requirement (Blank et al. 2004). In addition, in 2000/01 each of the 21 states participating in the PRAXIS Pre-professional Skills Testing Programme for prospective teachers set their pass rates for the test well below the test's median score (US Department of Education 2003). When 59 per cent of candidates did not pass at least one part of the Massachusetts teacher licensing basic competency test in 1998, the calls for a reform of the teaching profession intensified (Peterson 2003). In 2002 the US government passed into law No Child Left Behind (NCLB): a piece of legislation that has provided the federal government with a mandate for education reform on an unprecedented scale. It links government funding to strict improvement and accountability policies for America's public schools. For the nation's public school teachers, No Child Left Behind means complex systems of performance and accountability measures aimed at addressing concerns over teacher quality and increasing the number of highly qualified teachers in America's schools. Through an examination of the early impact of this piece of legislation and an exploration of two state's efforts to comply fully with this new federal mandate, this chapter considers how close the American public school

Can we Require 'Highly Qualified' Teachers? 145 system will come to its goal of having every child taught by a highly qualified professional by the end of the 2005/06 school year. No Child Left Behind

Much of the attention already given to NCLB has focused on its mandate to raise the achievement levels of all students (Smith 2005). However, the Act also legislates for reform in the way in which teachers are trained and recruited. As it applies to teacher quality, No Child Left Behind has two key objectives. The first is to ensure that every teacher is highly qualified in the subjects they teach. The second is to reduce the barriers to becoming a teacher by 'retooling' traditional teacher education programmes and opening up alternative routes into the profession (US Department of Education 2004). Both have proved to be controversial. According to NCLB, every teacher of core academic subjects, English, reading or language arts, mathematics, science, foreign languages, civics and government, economics, arts, history and geography, must be highly qualified by the end of the 2005/06 academic year. By the term 'highly qualified' the legislation stipulates that the teacher must have obtained 'full state certification as a teacher (including certification obtained through alternative routes to certification) or passed the State teacher licensing examination, and holds a licence to teach in such a State' (US Department of Education 2002a, p. 4). For new teachers, employed after the start of the 2002/03 academic year, this means that they must possess at least a relevant bachelor's degree and, for elementary school teachers, must pass a state test in subject knowledge and teaching skills in all areas of the basic elementary school curriculum. New secondary schoolteachers must either pass a state academic test or must successfully complete, for each of their teaching areas, an academic major, graduate degree or coursework equivalent to an academic major. Veteran teachers (those hired before the start of the 2002/03 school year) must meet the same criteria as newly qualified teachers or must demonstrate competence in all of the subjects that they teach according to a High Objective Uniform State Standard Evaluation, or HOUSSE (US Department of Education 2002b). Each state is free to develop their own HOUSSE criteria but must address teachers' skills in both subject-matter knowledge and teaching practice as well as provide coherent information about the teacher's attainment of content knowledge in the subjects they teach (Centre on Education Policy 2005). It is quite clear that the emphasis throughout HOUSSE, and indeed all aspects of the Highly Qualified Teacher requirements, is that teachers must prove that they have sufficient content knowledge for the subjects that they teach. This presents obvious difficulties for secondary-school science teachers who may have a physics major but may be additionally required to teach chemistry classes, and indeed NCLB does offer some flexibility here

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(US Department of Education 2004). But the situation for elementary, middle-school and special education teachers is even more complex. Here teachers are expected to teach a range of core subjects and most possess a general elementary or special education teaching certificate rather than an individual subject major. The expectation under NCLB is that they must demonstrate content knowledge for each subject they teach in order to be deemed 'highly qualified'. Conceivably, this could result in them either having to take state tests to demonstrate competency for each of their subjects or otherwise meet the criteria through HOUSSE. The HOUSSE criteria differ, with some states adopting more rigorous versions than others. In Colorado, a state that has been praised for embracing the spirit of NCLB in its HOUSSE plan (Walsh and Snyder 2004), veteran teachers do not really have a HOUSSE option at all, they must demonstrate content knowledge either by undertaking content-focused professional development or pass a subject-matter test. In Pennsylvania, veteran teachers will have to achieve 'highly qualified' teacher status in the same way as new teachers: through academic coursework or state tests (Keller 2005). California, on the other hand, has adopted a points system for meeting HOUSSE requirements whereby a veteran teacher can potentially accumulate 90 per cent of the required points by having assumed leadership and service roles (Walsh and Snyder 2004). In California, a teacher with five year's teaching experience can gain 50 HOUSSE points out of the 100 needed to become NCLB compliant. This differs markedly from some other states who have adopted a similar HOUSSE points system, such as Alabama, where a teacher with five years' teaching experience would earn only 10 HOUSSE points (Education Trust 2003, Education Commission of the States 2004a). Producing high-quality teachers

At the start of the 1999/2000 school year, there were almost 3.5 million teachers teaching in public and private schools in the USA, a number that has risen by almost 1 million since 1988. The number of new entrants to the profession every year has remained similar, at around 15 per cent (National Centre for Educational Statistics 2005). Of these new entrants, approximately 60 per cent had followed the traditional undergraduate route into teaching, with a major in education (Newman 2002). Others major in another field, perhaps an arts or science discipline, and take the additional education courses that are required in order to obtain a state licence to teach. Each state is responsible for setting its own licensing standards, and procedures and requirements do vary. For example, the number of credits of prescribed education coursework that are required for obtaining a state license can range from 18 to 40, depending on the state (Darling-Hammond 2000). Obtaining a secondary-school teaching license in Maryland requires

Can we Require 'Highly Qualified' Teachers'? 147 27 credit hours of education coursework and 36 credit hours of content coursework (Walsh 2001). In Nevada, secondary teachers are required to have a Bachelor's degree and complete 22 credit hours in professional secondary education (Nevada Department of Education 2005). These differing criteria also mean that a teacher who is licensed in one state will not be able to practise in another until they obtain the necessary state license, although some mid-Atlantic states are in the process of developing regional teacher licenses (Jacobsen 2005a). In addition to the undergraduate route, 47 out of the 54 states and territories (including the District of Columbia and the territories of Puerto Rico, Guam and the Virgin Islands) offer at least one alternative route into teaching. In fact, nationwide there are around 89 alternative routes available, and while all require a bachelor's degree, only around 60 per cent require any teaching practice (US Department of Education 2004). Some estimates of the value of having a good teacher can be quite staggering - such as having three consecutive years of good teachers (those placed in the 85th percentile or above in terms of quality) might overcome the average achievement deficit between low-income students and others (Hanushek 2002, Hanushek and Rivkin 2004). Value-added studies in Tennessee have estimated that, at the extreme, 5th grade students who had experienced highly ineffective teachers for three years were likely to score around 50 percentile points below their peers of comparable previous achievement who had been taught by highly effective teachers for the same period (Rivers and Sanders 2002). The key issue, though, is how to identify and obtain good teachers, especially when research does not find any 'systematic link between teacher characteristics and student outcomes' (Hanushek and Rivkin, 2004, p. 7). Uncertainty over the most effective way to develop a teacher workforce underlies much of the controversy that has surrounded No Child Left Behind's Highly Qualified Teacher requirements, and no other area seems to have excited such debate as the issue of teacher certification. This has divided opinion between those who favour a move towards a decentralized teacher licensing system governed by choice, where prospective teachers can enter the profession by a variety of pathways, and those who advocate that teacher preparation should include training in teaching methods and pedagogy and should remain largely within the schools of education. Proponents of the decentralized system favour pathways into teaching that are free from the education coursework requirements of many of the traditional routes (Walsh 2001). They argue that the current system whereby prospective teachers without undergraduate coursework in education have to cover additional education programmes, often up to a year in length, before becoming eligible for state certification, acts as a deterrent to highly able individuals who might otherwise enter teaching. It is a system which allows 'too many poorly qualified individuals into the classroom while

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creating barriers for the most talented candidates' (US Department of Education 2002b, p. 12). Deregulators place the emphasis on teachers having high verbal skills and subject expertise rather than the pedagogic skills supposedly taught in schools of education. They criticize traditional routes into teaching for failing to provide teachers with sufficient subject knowledge to enable them to teach their subject effectively (Finn 2003). On the other hand, those defending the existing centralized system contend that the current certification process already assesses prospective teachers for their skills in content knowledge and verbal ability, as well as their teaching ability, and that state tests are already effective in ensuring that only high-quality teachers are admitted to the profession (DarlingHammond 2000). According to them, the policy objectives of No Child Left Behind for improving teacher quality essentially mean the 'dismantling of teacher education systems and the redefinition of teacher qualifications to include little preparation for teaching' (Darling-Hammond and Younge 2002, p. 13). That NCLB's focus is almost exclusively on subject-matter knowledge while appearing to sideline pedagogy and other professional knowledge and skills excites particular concern (Cochran-Smith 2005, Kaplan and Owings 2003). 'We should not confuse a highly qualified taker of tests about teaching with a highly qualified classroom teacher' (Berliner 2005, p. 208). Both perspectives cite a research base that provides some backing for their preferred approach, and both criticize the other for the lack of scientific rigour in the studies they use to support their claims (Walsh 2001, Darling-Hammond and Younge 2002). Unfortunately, the evidence base on which both sides base their claims is unclear, with a lack of experimental studies, and the confusion of different outcome measures and definitions of certification (Archer 2002). No Child Left Behind in practice

Unlike the UK and many other industrialized countries, the USA has a decentralized system of education, with much of the control over schools devolved to school districts which act on behalf of the state. There is no national assessment system and no national curriculum. From the perspective of many state and local educators, the NCLB provisions constitute an 'unprecedented federal intrusion into their authority to establish policies and programmes appropriate to their respective communities' (McDermott and Jenson 2005, p. 45). In the USA, federal funds only contribute around 7-8 per cent of total public-school funding; the remainder is split between the state (typically around 48 per cent) and local taxes (around 45 per cent), although these proportions vary (Education Trust 2002). With No Child Left Behind it is, according to the Chair of the Utah Education Committee, a case of '7% of money dictating

Can we Require 'Highly Qualified' Teachers? 149 100% of policy' (Dayton 2005). In theory, states could forgo their federal funding and so be exempt from many of NCLB's mandates. While there is a suggestion that some states and school districts are considering doing this, it is likely that any shortfalls in this funding will have a disproportionate impact on disadvantaged students - the main recipients of such funds (McDermott andjenson 2005). In September 2003, each state was required to submit to the US Department of Education a detailed workbook outlining the steps they would take to ensure full compliance with No Child Left Behind's requirements for teacher quality by the end of the 2005/06 academic year. This workbook would serve as a baseline for measuring states' progress and states were required to report in the following areas: • state certification and licensing requirements for new teachers, including those that enter through traditional and alternative routes; • state-wide pass rates on recent state assessments of graduates from teacher preparation programmes; • the numbers of teachers on waivers or emergency and temporary permits; • information on teacher standards and their alignment with student standards; • criteria for identifying low performing schools of education. While the US Department of Education reports that states have made good progress towards reaching compliance in some of these areas, several issues arise concerning the data-collection process, teacher certification and testing, and the employment of teachers on temporary teaching licences or waivers (US Department of Education 2004, US Department of Education 2005b). Putting it more strongly, the Education Trust, an organization dedicated to the closing of achievement gaps in public schools, writes that while some states have provided honest accounts of their progress towards compliance with NCLB, others have reported figures that 'border on farce and veer into tragedy' (Education Trust 2003, p. 1). For example, 9 states failed to report even the most basic information on the proportion of classrooms taught by highly qualified teachers in time for the 2003 deadline, 15 states and territories did not require a content-specific bachelor's degree for initial certification and 20 either did not assess academic content for individuals seeking initial teacher certification or had no state-wide testing at all (US Department of Education 2004). In addition, since 2003, only a minority of states have set suitable and demanding criteria for their HOUSSE (Walsh and Snyder 2004, Centre on Education Policy 2005) and others have been criticized for weak HOUSSE plans for veteran teachers (Olson 2004). Such criticisms include having plans that exempt veteran teachers from coursework commitments or allow

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Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

them to gain credit for activities that have little connection with the subject they teach, such as serving on committees (Jacobsen 2005b). According to the Education Commission of the States (2004b), while almost all states have testing procedures in place for newly qualified elementary teachers, not one state has fully established an annual measurable objective to meet the goal for 'highly qualified' teachers in every classroom. Most worryingly perhaps, according to the Education Commission of the States, in March 2004 no state was on track to meet the Highly Qualified Teacher requirement by the 2005-06 deadline (Education Commission of the States 2004c). In contrast to the concerns raised by the US Department of Education and interest groups like the Education Trust, the majority of states report that they are on track to meet the 2005-06 deadline with at least four out of five classes in the core subjects already being taught by teachers who are 'highly qualified' (Keller 2003, 2004). This leads to a conflicting picture, and one of the reasons for this apparent lack of clarity is NCLB's failure to provide uniform licensing requirements and to leave the decision about what constitutes a 'highly qualified' teacher to the states. The apparent mismatch between the federal and state determinations of what it means to be 'highly qualified' was highlighted recently when federal officials overruled the Highly Qualified Teacher status of most of the elementary teachers in Utah and North Dakota (Keller 2005). Despite having many years of teaching experience and, for the majority of teachers, an elementary education major from a state institution, the state's teaching credential was deemed insufficient to meet the standards of NCLB. The dispute was later settled with federal officials announcing that these teachers were now considered 'highly qualified' (Davis 2005). In order to understand better the likelihood of states meeting No Child Left Behind's requirements, we focus on two very different states: Wisconsin and California. Wisconsin is relatively affluent and reported having the highest proportions of highly qualified teachers in the nation in 2003. California - a state with more diverse social and economic characteristics reported among the lowest proportions of highly qualified teachers. Highly qualified to teach in Wisconsin Following their submission of the September 2003 teacher-quality workbook, Wisconsin proclaimed itself the 'best in nation' for teacher quality. The state reported that 99 per cent of all classes, and 97 per cent of classes in high poverty districts, were being taught by Highly Qualified Teachers (Education Trust 2003). Wisconsin is considered a 'high standards' state that has a strong set of education requirements for future teachers. For example, highschool teachers must have a major in the subject they plan to teach, while middle-school teachers must have at least a minor in their subject areas,

Can we Require 'Highly Qualified' Teachers? 151 and trainee teachers must take basic skills tests for entry to teacher preparation programmes (Education Week 2005, Walsh and Snyder 2004). Teacher education is a four and a half to five year process. All prospective teachers must spend at least 18 weeks on teaching practice, and from September 2004 student teachers must pass a content examination before entering their final semester of training (University of Madison-Wisconsin 2005). These standards are strictly enforced. In 1994 no new elementary or high-school teachers were hired without a licence in their field, compared with Louisiana where 31 per cent of all new entrants were unlicensed (Darling-Hammond 2000). Perhaps because of these strict entry requirements, Wisconsin does not require a content-specific bachelor's degree nor, until recently, did it employ any content-related testing of its prospective teachers (US Department of Education 2003). Neither did Wisconsin develop a separate HOUSSE plan, arguing that all of its elementary, middle and high-school teachers already met the grade. The Wisconsin Department of Education provides little information on its website about the progress of individual schools towards achieving compliance with No Child Left Behind's Highly Qualified Teacher requirements. The teacher-level information that is available shows that high proportions of Wisconsin's teachers have college degrees, and that this varies little among the type of school in which they teach (Table 9.1). In 2003-04, 35 of Wisconsin's schools were identified for improvement, corrective action or restructuring, and under the terms of No Child Left Behind were determined not to have made Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP, similar to being placed in 'special measures' in the UK). These schools employ around 3 per cent of Wisconsin's total teacher workforce, almost all of whom hold at least a bachelor's degree qualification. Similarly, in 2003/04 almost all maths and science teachers had at least a bachelor's degree, as reported by the state (Wisconsin Department of Teacher qualification

Less than a Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree 6-year specialist degree Doctorate Other qualification

Non-AYP schools

0 55 42 0 1 1

AYP schools

0 57 42 0 0 0

Note: Cells containing zero represent figures of less than 0.5%, N=61,253 Source: Wisconsin Department of Education 2005 Table 9.1 Percentage teacher qualifications, according to school 'quality', Wisconsin

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Education 2005). However, according to the Schools and Staffing Survey undertaken by the National Centre for Educational Statistics in 1999-2000, only 75 per cent of grade 7-12 mathematics teachers and 82 per cent of science teachers had a major in their field. The numbers for those with a major and certification were the same for mathematics but lower (77 per cent) for science (Blank et al. 2004). This disparity between the figures reported by the state and those cited by external organizations underlines some of the difficulties in obtaining reliable high-quality data on the numbers of NCLB compliant teachers in all schools, regardless of the state. While prospective teachers in Wisconsin have been required to take content-related examinations since September 2004, there were no such requirements in place for teachers qualifying before this date (US Department of Education 2004). The state's assertion that almost all of its teachers were 'highly qualified' in 2003 and the reiteration of this through their HOUSSE plans has increased the criticism levied against Wisconsin for abusing the flexibility that it has been granted under NCLB for assessing the content-knowledge requirements of veteran teachers by 'claiming simply that all certified teachers have met them' (Education Trust 2003, p. 7). With respect to its HOUSSE criteria, Wisconsin is accused of 'making the conceptual leap of equating the question of whether teachers have sufficient subject matter knowledge . . . with the question of whether they have completed an accredited teacher education programme' (ibid.). Moreover, according to the Education Commission of the States (2004b), Wisconsin is fully on track to comply with NCLB in only one of the three additional reporting areas: new tests for elementary schoolteachers. Uncertainty over whether the state's subject-matter competency tests will equally apply to veteran teachers and confusion over the states' definition of 'highly qualified' mean that Wisconsin is considered to be only partially on track for these remaining two areas (Education Commission of the States 2004a). Highly qualified to teach in California

California is the most populous state in the USA, with approximately 9,000 public schools and around 300,000 teachers teaching over 6,000,000 students, almost a quarter of whom are English language learners (National Centre for Educational Statistics 2005). With its rising living costs contrasted against purportedly blighted urban schools and state-wide budget deficits, it has been described as a 'poster state' for many of the problems facing those who wish to train, recruit and retain good teachers (Quality Counts 2003). A recent report by the RAND Corporation charts an apparently slow decline of the state's educational fortunes. What had been regarded as one of the best education systems in the USA 30 years ago now has among the lowest performing students, the poorest school facilities and teacher salaries which have not increased in real terms since 1969 (Carroll et al. 2005). The

Can we Require'Highly Qualified'Teachers'? 153 current struggle to support education at the minimum levels mandated by the state's constitution point to a state requiring long-term solutions and 'serious school finance reform' (Slack 2005, p. 23). In 1996, California had implemented an ambitious $1.6 billion a year programme to reduce class sizes from 30 students to 20 in kindergarten through to the third grade. One consequence of the class-size reduction programme was a dramatic increase in the recruitment of inexperienced and uncertified teachers, resulting in large gaps in the distribution of qualified teachers between schools attended by low-income or non-white students and others (Jepsen and Rivkin 2002). As a result, in 2000 only 50 per cent of grade 7-12 mathematics teachers had both a major in their field and state certification (Blank et al. 2004). In order to meet the mandates of NCLB, California has invested large sums in programmes to recruit and train teachers. In addition to a well-funded teacher induction programme, California increased the amount it spends on programmes to recruit teachers from around $14 million in 1998 to $160 million in 2000 (Carroll etaL 2005).

To be termed 'highly qualified' in California, a teacher of core academic subjects must have a bachelor's degree, a state credential or have held an intern certificate/credential for no more than three years and demonstrated core academic subject-matter competence (California Department of Education 2004). In order to comply fully with the NCLB mandate, California has instigated a complex HOUSSE system for its veteran teachers. Using HOUSSE, a teacher must obtain 100 points from a range of activities including teaching experience, professional development, academic coursework and leadership and service to the profession (Education Commission of the States 2004a). California has received some criticism for its HOUSSE plans; the National Council for Teacher Quality awarded it an 'F' grade (Walsh and Snyder 2004). In its September 2003 Consolidated State Application, California estimated that around 48 per cent of classes in core academic subjects were taught by 'highly qualified' teachers, while in 'high poverty' schools, the School type

All schools in state High-poverty schools Low-poverty schools Elementary schools Secondary schools

Percentage of core academic classes taught by 'highly qualified' teachers

52 40 60 49 53

Table 9.2 Number of classes in the core academic subjects being taught by 'highly qualified' teachers, California, 2003 Source: California Department of Education 2005a, p. 37

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figure was 35 per cent. However, according to the state's Consolidated Performance Report for the 2003/04 school year, this data was not 'entirely consistent with the requirements established by NCLB' and make it 'unfeasible' to generate baseline estimates of teacher quality that are based on this data (California Department of Education 2005b, p. 36). This resulted in revised baseline estimates for teacher quality being established early in spring 2004 (Table 9.2). These new estimates represent a rather low starting point from which the state has to meet its targets for compliance with No Child Left Behind's Highly Qualified Teacher requirements. To comply with No Child Left Behind, the state would have to reduce the number of these underqualified teachers at a rate of 60 per cent a year (Futernick 2003). As for the other three areas in which states must reach compliance, California appears to be on track to comply with NCLB in two of them: these are denning Highly Qualified Teachers, and developing tests for elementary schoolteachers. Uncertainties with California's HOUSSE mean that it was only rated as partially on track for the third area: subject-matter competency. In its October 2003 census, California estimated that only 45 per cent of teachers who teach in schools that failed to make AYP were NCLB compliant, compared to 60 per cent of the teachers in schools who made AYP. Around 90 per cent of teachers have teaching credentials, while over a third possess a Master's degree or higher. The proportion of teachers who are teaching on emergency certificates or waivers is negligible. The concern among many commentators is that it is teachers with less experience and with fewer teaching credentials who are disproportionately teaching in California's poorest and non-white schools (Quality Counts 2003). However, the evidence available to us from the state's publicly available database only offers limited support for this contention - at least when school success is determined according to NCLB's AYP targets. The only indicator on which there are clear differences in 'teacher quality' between schools that do and do not make AYP is in the number of classes taught by NCLB compliant teachers (there is no disaggregated data readily available that cites the numbers of teachers who are NCLB compliant). Discussion

On one reading the No Child Left Behind Act offers equity because it tries to ensure that all pupils, including those who have traditionally done less well in school, achieve minimum competency levels in key subjects and are taught by teachers who are 'highly qualified'. However, the definition of 'highly qualified' is linked only to an individual's knowledge of the subjects that they teach as denned by content tests that can be overly complicated and confusing (Berliner 2005). There are no provisions under NCLB's Highly Qualified Teacher criteria to link teacher performance directly to

Can we Require 'Highly Qualified' Teachers'? 155 student achievement, or to assess classroom performance. Indeed some alternative routes into teaching do not require that prospective teachers spend any time in teaching practice at all (US Department of Education 2004). More fundamentally, the evidence base underpinning many of the key aims of NCLB's 'highly qualified teacher' provisions is unclear. It is not clear what qualities make a good teacher. High verbal skills and strong subject knowledge may be among them, but any list is unlikely to be exhaustive. The research evidence is also unclear about the value of a teaching certificate, or the effectiveness of alternative routes into teaching. There is also concern that the Highly Qualified Teacher provisions will be 'brought down by the burden of NCLB's internal compromises and ambiguity and by state's unwillingness to cede control no matter how important the cause' (Walsh and Snyder 2004, p. 1). Some educators are unhappy with the level of federal influence in education and even question the constitutionality of the reform. Different states have very different criteria for meeting compliance, and whether they will all succeed in delivering a 'highly qualified' teacher into every class during the coming months remains to be seen. Equally interesting will be the extent to which the federal government will actually be able to determine how reliable the states have been in their estimations. Does the Department of Education have a mandate to check the teaching credentials of every compliant teacher, or will they rely on the states' estimates? The sanctions for non-compliance are also unclear. Some states are busy reassuring teachers that if they are not NCLB compliant by the 2005/06 deadline this does not mean that they will be fired (California Department of Education 2005b). What might be the consequences for school districts who fail to comply and who might face the loss of millions of dollars of federal funding? Even at this late stage, it is still unclear whether by the end of the 2005/06 school year every child will be being taught by a 'highly qualified' teacher. It is also far from established that highly qualified teaching is strongly linked to highly effective teaching. Despite being enacted in law, it is not easy to require teacher quality.

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CONCLUSION

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10

Strengthening the teaching workforce

On the basis of the key findings to emerge from the book, this final chapter presents a summary of lessons learned for the future conduct of research on teacher supply, some suggested explanations for the results in the substantive chapters of the book and an outline of some of the implications for policy-makers and those who employ and train our teachers. Some implications for research on teacher supply

Our reconsideration of the notion of teacher shortages in this book gives rise to some more general ideas about the research that has been, or could be, done in this area. In some ways, these are the same sorts of ideas as might arise from a review of evidence in any area of education research. In too many cases, such as in academic reports of a teacher supply crisis in Chapter 1, the conclusions drawn by the researchers are not sufficiently supported by the evidence presented in their favour. Put simply, the research conclusions are often not warranted (Gorard 2002). How can an authority with no teacher vacancies validly claim that it is now harder for them to fill vacancies than it was previously, for example? Similarly, a snapshot of the ages of teachers cannot be used to justify conclusions about changes over time. Evidence of the situation in one geographical area alone cannot be used to makes claims about whether this situation is better or worse than in other areas. The views of the teachers themselves cannot be used to justify conclusions about why people do not become teachers. And so on. Of course, such evidence might be indicative, and so considered useful, if more direct evidence is impossible to collect. But in each case, the researcher has a duty to consider other plausible explanations for the same evidence, and then support the simplest possible explanation. Put another way, they should consider, if their conclusions were actually untrue, how else they might explain their evidence. The researcher also has a duty to test any other plausible explanations for their evidence, partly by seeking a wider range of evidence. In all of the examples given, such evidence is easily available. We have shown that

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considerations of changes over time are relatively straightforward, using freely available large-scale data. We have shown in Chapter 3 that students not intending to be teachers are happy to try and explain why teaching is not for them. Our experience is that surveys are better at collecting quite simple 'facts' than at understanding individuals' attitudes or motivations. The evidence resulting from the former is generally more suited to auditing teacher supply and demand. If PISA 2000 had asked headteachers about the actual levels of teacher shortage and turnover in their own school over a specified period then the results would be more helpful than the beliefs and impressions reported in Chapter 8. There is at present insufficient data publicly available at the level of the individual to inform policy-making. More research is needed if decisions relating to teacher recruitment and retention policy are to be grounded in empirical evidence. However, this does not necessarily mean that many new large-scale projects need to be commissioned. There are relatively simple ways in which the bodies presently concerned with organizing and administrating recruitment and training could aid and/or conduct the collection and analysis of data in these areas. A centralized strategy for the collection and analysis of all sources of data in the area could do much to ameliorate the problems inherent in the present situation. Relevant bodies (such as HESA, GTTR, GTC, TTA and UCAS in the UK) would need to liaise regarding the collection and presentation of important datasets. Ideally, a central database would be created into which, where possible, historical records (in addition to current and future datasets) could be incorporated. When such a database has been established, policy decisions can be made in the light of a comprehensive knowledge of the existing situation in teacher recruitment and retention. Analyses of supply and demand would be much simpler than is the case at present, and any strategies could be defended in terms of a complete and coherent evidence base. This would allow longitudinal analyses of all student trajectories both teacher and non-teacher. A more careful and proportionate use of numbers, the reuse of largescale datasets, awareness of changes in operational definitions over time and place, the mixing of such data with in-depth approaches, greater scepticism about bad news, the inclusion of currently excluded groups in research and the possibilities of experimental designs to uncover how to improve problem situations - these all form part of more general advice on the conduct of education research. Our own experience of giving evidence to the UK House of Commons Select Committee is that views expressed by 'expert' witnesses are often partial and not based on primary evidence, although taken as evidence by listeners. When summarised, the distinction between what actors in these events believe and what can be demonstrated transparently and repeatedly by the available evidence tends

Strengthening the Teaching Workforce 161 to become blurred. Both witnesses and consumers of evidence need training to help them distinguish between the two situations. Nearly all of the figures for teacher supply in common use are currently based only on those who have already decided to become teachers. This is true even of research purporting to find out why people become teachers. Seeking, as well, the views of those who do not become teachers, or have never even considered a career as a teacher, is more expensive in research terms, but provides an illuminating perspective on how we might expand the size or quality of the teaching workforce. Researchers need to take a lifelong view of an individual's decision whether to become a teacher or not, and to realize that many of the commonly used indicators of the nature of the teaching workforce are not, in themselves, evidence of teacher shortages. Summary of the evidence presented so far

Teacher supply has reportedly faced a series of crises in England and Wales since 1990. These have ranged from complaints of there not being enough teachers (1990s), to having poor-quality teachers (2001/02), to having too many trained teachers (2003/04) and back to threats of not enough trainees because of changes to funding (2005 at time of writing). The number of potential sources of data on teacher numbers has grown in the UK in the last decade, and the datasets used in this book are the most comprehensive available. However, there remain several problems in getting a clear picture of teacher supply issues. A disproportionate number of prior studies have relied on small-scale work or self-reporting of perceptions rather than audits of teacher supply. Larger datasets are generally missing a considerable amount of data, and in other datasets an absence of individual identifiers makes analysis of important trends impossible. Most publicly available data is actually aggregated, not individual. Different datasets lead to confusions and contradictions. There are changes over time in the dates and methods of recording data, in key definitions and in the bases for geographical aggregation. These changes lead to considerable difficulties in drawing comparisons. International comparisons are correspondingly harder for many of the same reasons, but complicated by the diversity of contexts and indicators. To a large extent, the decision to become a teacher is a long-term one. Earlier background characteristics, such as parental occupation and the student's prior qualifications, are able to predict who will and will not decide to enter the teaching profession with around 78 per cent accuracy. Once these differences are taken into account, the students who decide to become teachers are more motivated by intrinsic factors such as job satisfaction and the opportunity to share their knowledge. Students who did not wish to become teachers are more likely to be motivated by extrinsic factors such as

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salary and job status, and are also more likely to report having had more negative personal experiences of school. They are unlikely to be swayed by short-term financial incentives which have, in the main, attracted the 'usual suspects'. Those responsible for teacher supply will, therefore, have to decide whether it is the marginal teachers they are attempting to recruit, who may be tempted by adverts about 'using their head' and golden hellos, or those like our non-teachers who might require a more radical reprofessionalization of teaching careers. In many ways, the crisis reported in Chapters 1 and 8 cannot be sustained by the best figures available. Recruitment to teacher training in England and Wales is at an historic high, and the prior qualifications of trainees are improving over time. Teacher training is an increasingly popular option for UK graduates, and the vast majority of postgraduate trainees have a first or second-class degree. The number of people considering teaching as a career is, therefore, not a major problem for teacher supply, and nearly half of all applicants to postgraduate ITT in the UK are rejected in a rather unsystematic way, dependent chiefly upon the vagaries of places at individual institutions with varying qualities of intake. A more centralized national system of allocating training places to applicants, rather than leaving decisions in the hands of institutions, might overcome this variation in quality, which currently means that some of those rejected are better qualified than some of those accepted. The main problems of teacher supply are the perennial ones of regional disparities and some shortage subjects. There is a relatively small pool of maths and science graduates, from which trainees are recruited. A very large proportion of these enter teaching but the supply of such graduates is not rising fast enough to meet the demands of the labour market in general. Two obvious solutions present themselves. First, teachers can be recruited who have expertise in the shortage area but no formal named qualification. Almost any graduate from a numerate discipline, such as economics, has the potential to teach primary and everyday maths, for example. Second, since the major employer of graduates in shortage areas is teaching itself, the claim that these National Curriculum areas are essential to schooling because of the labour demands for people with these skills is partly circular. The teacher shortage could be remedied simply by reducing the need for teachers in shortage subjects. It is not clear that all pupils need to learn the full range of mathematics, rather than arithmetic, for example. It is not clear that requiring all pupils to learn the full range of mathematics up to the age of 16 is making that subject more attractive, or supplying employers with employees happy to work with numbers. Similar arguments can be mounted in relation to the teaching of science in the current system. Most teacher trainees qualify and obtain a post, irrespective of their prior qualifications, subject specialism, sex, ethnicity or disability. Few fail, and

Strengthening the Teaching Workforce 163 most who do not complete do not cite financial factors as the reason. In one sense then, the training system is efficient and fair, mostly weeding out those who have unrealistic ideas of the challenge presented by teaching in practice. In another sense, though, the system is inequitable. Students with poor entry qualifications, rated as poor at teaching by external inspections, and trained in institutions judged unable to make fair assessments of student quality, have as much chance of qualification and a teaching post as everyone else. If the quality of teachers is to be improved, as is demanded in the USA, then such iniquities need to be addressed first. A central admissions system handling all applications and allocating national training places on merit, coupled with more rigorous moderation of subsequent qualification, would help. Perhaps, though, a more radical approach is possible. Why does teacher training have to be so widespread in comparison to other forms of professional training? It could take place in fewer but larger regional centres, emphasizing the national structure of the profession, leading to efficiency savings, ensuring a higher level of consistency in outcomes and making it easier to link high-quality research with training. Such an approach might even lead to an improvement in the quality of education research. There is no evidence of the increased use of unqualified teachers (although the role of less-qualified teaching assistants is an interesting anomaly in the UK). The total quantity of qualified teachers is certainly not a problem. In England, there are now more teachers in service in each school sector than there have been for any previous year for which full data is available. Pupil numbers are set to decline. Pupil:teacher ratios are close to their historic lowest point, with little evidence of important regional variation. Where there are regional disparities, perhaps a more rational system of incentive pay could be used. At present, teachers are paid more (through the London allowance, for example) to teach in areas that are more popular to live in, and which have proportionately more teachers than anywhere else. This approach is anomalous and could be reversed. Schools outside these popular areas with large numbers of pupils per teacher do not necessarily have larger class sizes. For example, areas with higher teachervacancy figures, such as London and the south-east, operate with low pupil:teacher ratios but larger class sizes. While this suggests that neither pupil:teacher ratios nor vacancy rates are good indicators of class size, it does show that the deployment of teachers in schools is likely to be an institutional management or administrative issue rather than one to be solved by national policy. The number of vacancies is a poor indicator of the demand for teachers. Vacancies refer to all advertised posts, regardless of how difficult these are to fill. A high level of vacancies can indicate a thriving profession with high levels of career mobility. Even so, vacancies are lower than a decade ago. Even when 'hard to fill' vacancies are considered, any problems tend to reflect the regional and subject dispersion of teaching staff rather than any

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national shortages. There are many unemployed and otherwise employed teachers in the UK Pupihteacher ratios are not much better as an indicator of teacher demand, because they cannot be simply converted into class sizes and they hide considerable sectoral variation (and even between schools in some regions and sectors, McCreth et al. 2001). Wastage and turnover are similarly poor indicators of problems in teacher supply. They can include staff leaving for jobs in other schools or other sectors of the education system, those moving to work in other home countries and those who merely change their working hours. Retirement rates have fallen. While there is some suggestion that teachers aged in their thirties are under-represented in the profession, the consistency of these figures over time presents little evidence of a purported recruitment 'time bomb'. There is no mass exodus of disillusioned teachers. Reported problems with teacher supply appear in all developed countries, apparently to the extent that student progress and attainment is hindered. However, more detailed analysis of these reports suggests that the headteachers involved may be reporting their beliefs about a more general situation rather than a problem in their own schools. A shortage of high-quality teachers has been seen in some circles as a long-time feature of US education. But the response, an apparently influential and controversial nationwide policy of requiring highly qualified teachers in the USA, has actually been implemented in markedly different ways in different states. There is some doubt whether states will manage to comply with the legislation in time, and considerable difficulty in establishing whether they have complied or not. The reports of teachers and headteachers as used in other studies have the disadvantages, compared to the data presented here, of being less complete. Their lower response rates would tend to exaggerate the views from schools with problems, and they are snapshots rather than trends in nature. Headteachers complain about having only five or six decent applicants for each post, averaged across all subjects including shortage subjects, and in all areas including those with a population density of less than 0.2 persons per hectare (Brace 2002). This seems a remarkably high figure to us. How then can we explain the recurring stories of a teacher supply crisis? Alternative explanations for the teacher supply crisis No crisis

One of the simplest explanations for the crisis would have to be that it never happened. Because of competing views on the indicators of teacher supply and demand, there have been disagreements, both in the past and in recent years, between teacher representatives and the government over whether

Strengthening the Teaching Workforce 165 there was a teacher supply 'crisis' at all (Grace 1991, House of Commons 1997a, 1997b, 2000). Our preferred explanation of the figures we have presented is that there never was a general crisis to the extent portrayed in Chapter 1, and we use the remainder of this chapter to explain why. Class sizes

Perhaps the 'crisis' in the 1990s was partly the result of government policy to reduce class sizes and improve pupilrteacher ratios, which inevitably increased the demand for teachers. Average class size in maintained secondary schools dropped from 22.1 in 1978 to 20.7 in 1990. If class sizes and pupil:teacher ratios had remained at the 1980 figure, the situation for teacher numbers would be quite different. The lesson learned should be that policies, such as a reduction in class sizes, needing advanced planning for increased teacher recruitment cannot be implemented within the lifetime of one administration. Changes in many areas of the educational system can have implications for teacher demand and supply (revised curricula, introduction of new methods of teaching or changes in subject emphasis, for example). According to Williams (1979), when planning for any changed or expanded educational programme a high priority must be to secure the required number of teachers. The difficulty lies in ensuring that any changes take effect in time to achieve the intended objective. He suggests a timescale of five to six years between changes in recruitment to teacher training courses and the time when the teachers will be needed, but this is generally beyond the lifespan of any political administration. However, perhaps policy-makers need to move away from concern with crisis accounts of teacher supply in England, Wales and other developed countries. There are more important policy issues than teacher supply, both in education and beyond, and little evidence that their 'new' policies have done much to change the situation for teacher recruitment over the past decade. Solutions to any perceived problems with the demand for teachers do not necessarily have to come from the supply end of the equation. Changing the organization of schooling can have more direct impacts on the requirements (or demand) of the system itself. Decisions regarding acceptable PTRs or average class sizes are arbitrary in nature, rather than based on empirical evidence regarding effectiveness or equity. As previously noted, aggregate data on class sizes disguises not only variation between individual institutions but also differences between subject areas and age groups. PTRs are perhaps a better indicator of the present distribution of teachers, but used in isolation this data reveals little about how teachers and their tasks are distributed within institutions.

t

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

Targets

In its calculation of recruitment targets, using the formula which is publicly available, the DfEE/DfES does not take into consideration regional differences, claiming that 'the number of teachers needed minus the number in post and those known to be returning to teaching will give the number to be trained nationally' (Dean 2000a, p. 4). It is assumed that trained teachers will automatically fill available teaching vacancies wherever they appear. If this is not true then even if overall teaching recruitment targets are met, there would still be shortages in some regions. If targets have to be used, regional issues need to be incorporated and UK funding needs to be truly national. We should move away from the absurd situation where the National Assembly for Wales sees teachers trained in Wales and teaching in England as money wasted, and vice versa. Routes

Gilroy (1998) has argued that the trend away from a university-based teacher education towards employment-based routes was an important cause of the recruitment 'crisis' experienced in recent years. He explained that by handing over the one-year secondary initial teacher education course to schools, at least 80 per cent of students' time would be school-based - an equivalent to four days per week. This meant a 'considerable shift of funds' from universities and colleges to the schools (Clarke 1992). Bullock and Scott (1992) believed that the articled and licensed schemes which involved experienced secondary schoolteachers more extensively in the training of new teachers would have implications in terms of demands on teacher time and a higher teacher:pupil ratio. Teachers were concerned that they were spending too much time with student teachers at the expense of pupils. Consequently, some schools withdrew their partnership with their universities. This started a chain of events whereby students might apply to courses but were rejected because no schools could be found to place them in for the school-based training (Hutchings et al. 2000). The net results are fewer universities running initial teacher education courses, and fewer students being accepted on to courses. The withdrawal of the relatively large programme previously run by the Open University is an example of this (see Chapter 5). On the other hand, this is not a very plausible or complete explanation. The expansion of school-based experience for traditional HE courses long predated the purported crisis in supply, and the more recent growth of fully school-based courses has, until now, been insufficient to explain such an apparently major national problem as reported in Chapter 1.

Strengthening the Teaching Workforce

167

It's the economy

One of the most popular lay explanations for changes in teacher supply is based on the economic cycle, which is part of the justification for attempted solutions based on financial incentives. It is widely believed that the failure to meet recruitment targets in the late 1990s was the result of a buoyant economy, resulting in high employment (Opinion 2000, Slater 2000b). High teacher vacancies are generally attributed to an employment market with high rates of employment, particularly graduate employment, in which teaching is thought to be a less attractive career so that fewer graduates enter teaching (Lydon 1999). According to Smithers (Schoolsnet, 2001, p. 1) 'teaching can attract applications when opportunities elsewhere are limited. But as soon as the economy picks up, teacher training struggles to fill its places'. In times of economic recession, on the other hand, teaching becomes a more attractive proposition and vacancy rates fall (Howson 2002). A number of academic and policy studies have also claimed that the state of the graduate labour market can affect the proportion of graduates going into training in general (Hughes and O'Connell 1995, Dolton 1990, House of Commons 1997b). If the findings of these studies were true, we would expect to see an increase in the number of teachers during a period of economic recession. However, teacher numbers actually declined after 1992, while the economy was faltering. In the past ten years or so, the lowest number of teacher vacancies was in the period between 1993 and 1997. This was also the period with the lowest number of teachers. Therefore, general graduate employment cannot explain changes in teacher vacancies (and it also fails to explain regional variations in teacher vacancies). In fact, real GDP is unrelated to the overall figures for teacher supply in both the UK and the USA (Dolton et at. 2003). There is now a growing recognition that the problem is an enduring one, rather than cyclical, and related to economic performance (Home 2001). Levels of funding

A more direct factor influencing the increase in teacher vacancies up to 2001 is the increase in school funding. It is estimated that about 85 per cent of the school budget is allocated to staffing costs (Johnson 2001). The number of teacher posts in any school is, in part, dependent on how many teachers the school can afford to pay for. Table 10.1 shows how the funding per pupil changed in real terms between 1995/6 and 2005/06 for maintained secondary schools in England. Funding per pupil fell between 1995 and 1997, the period of lowest teacher vacancies. From 1997 to 2001 pupil funding increased. This coincided with the period when teacher vacancies also started to rise. In 2001 there was a sudden annual increase of

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107 per cent in teacher vacancies (more than doubling), even though the number of teachers had started increasing faster than pupil numbers. Vacancies are, therefore, the natural accompaniment of the recent increase in funding. With more money, schools can create more posts. Consequently there is an increase in the demand for teachers, which is translated into advertised vacancies. As we have seen, these vacancy figures are more likely to cause public alarm than the underlying PTRs. Therefore, we are in the paradoxical situation that the current crisis may be as much a product of increased funding per pupil as of increased pupil numbers. Those bemoaning the shortage of teachers may have fallen into the trap of bemoaning an increase in money to schools - hardly a crisis. The number of schools

Another part of the explanation for the changes in teacher vacancies lies in school numbers. Interestingly, the period between 1991 and 1995 coincided with the early impact of the 1988 Education Reform Act, which saw the introduction of policies such as school choice and pupil-led funding. These policies were partly an attempt to reduce surplus places in some schools. By Year 1995/6 1996/7 1997/8 1998/9 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 (provisional) 2003/04 (planned) 2004/05 (planned) 2005/06 (planned)

Schools Schools (1995-2001) (1997-2005) 100 100 98 99 102 110 -

100 101 105 112 119 122 128 131 137

FE -

100 107 113 117 118 121 124 126

Note: The 1997-2005 real-terms index for schools funding per pupil has been calculated using April 2003 gross domestic deflators and shows the percentage increase in real-terms spending compared with the base year of 1997. The realterms index for FE funding per full-time student has been based on 100 in 1998-9, and calculated using April 2003 GDP deflators and projections. Figures are only comparable within columns, not within rows. Source: DfES (2002) Departmental Annual Report, 4235 DfES-AnnRpt [fO3] Sect 3 Table 10.1 Funding per full-time equivalent student, real-terms indices, 1995-2005

Strengthening the Teaching Workforce

169

closing very small schools with surplus places there was greater efficiency in the deployment of staff, since teachers were then more likely to be in larger schools with a higher pupil:teacher ratio (Fidler et at 1993). Fewer, but larger schools led to fewer teacher vacancies year on year from 1990 to 1996, partly explaining the high PTRs and low teacher vacancies during this period (Figure 10.1). However, after 1996, as the number of schools continued to decline, teacher vacancies increased. Between 2000 and 2001 the rate of decline in the number of schools increased again, partly explaining the drop in teacher vacancies in 2002. Two factors may be at play here. One is that the decline in the number of schools in England has slowed down, the other is that pupil funding has increased as shown above. The specialist graduate population

Another limitation on teacher supply, given the insistence of training institutions on named subject specialisms for all secondary and even many primary places, is the number of students pursuing 'shortage subjects'. There has been increasing competition between sectors of industry for a diminishing share of graduates in subjects such as maths and sciences. According to the Higher Education Statistics Agency, the overall number of graduates (including postgraduates, first-degree and other undergraduates) increased from 432,000 to 470,000 (by 9 per cent) between 1997 and 2001. Over the same period the number of graduates in the physical sciences,

Source: DfEE (2000a, 2000b, 2001a), DfES (2004) Statistical First Release - School workforce in England. SRF 09/2004 Figure 10.1 Teacher vacancies and number of schools in England 1985-2004

170

Teacher Supply: The Key Issues

engineering and technology declined by approximately 10 per cent, for example. A second issue is the reluctance of such graduates to go into teaching. Donnelly's study (2002) claims that only about 20 per cent of science and mathematics undergraduates seriously consider teaching as a career. A decade ago the relative proportion would be about one-third. Graduate physicists are 'more attracted to those jobs where they can fully use and develop their physics skills and knowledge' (Cooper 2001, p. 3). They are not attracted to the prospect of having to teach across the combined sciences. Table 10.2 compares total UK domiciled maths graduates with the teacher-supply targets and recruitment from 1995 to 2001. Many studies use the number of first-degree students in UK universities, including overseas students (Donnelly 2002, Institute of Physics 2001), even though the latter do not generally contribute to the teaching force in the UK Table 10.2 shows that the number of home maths graduates fluctuates at between three and three and a half thousand, with the lowest in 1997. In 1996, the target for recruiting from this relatively small number of individuals was a fantastic 85 per cent. The equivalent of over half of the entire graduate cohort in maths actually entered teacher training. The target has been reduced, not because of lowering demand, but because it is clearly unlikely ever to be met. Given that the number of people being trained in these shortage subjects is not enough for teacher supply, and that teaching has to compete with other industries for the employment of graduates, the number being recruited over these years can be considered remarkable. According to the Teachers' Training Agency, more than two-thirds of employers had difficulty recruiting graduates of the right calibre between 2000 and 2001 (School Teachers' Review Body 2002). The problem is particularly acute among organizations recruiting maths and science graduates. Even meeting the 1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Maths degrees, 3,280 home students ITT target 2,380 Targets as % of 73 degrees awarded ITT recruitment 1,888 Recruitment as % 58 of degrees awarded

3,181

2,962

3,154

3,378

3,315

3,490

2,700 85

2,370 80

2,270 72

1,810 54

1,980 60

2,065 59

1,741 55

1,538 52

1,191 38

1,390 41

1,390 42

1,660 47

Source: DfEE/DfES, Welsh Office/National Assembly for Wales, HESA Table 10.2 Maths degrees awarded and ITT intake targets, England and Wales, 1995/6 to 2001/02

Strengthening the Teaching Workforce 171 PGCE targets in modern foreign languages and religious education requires that over 40 per cent of the UK graduate output in these subjects enter teaching each year (Schoolsnet 2001). But this pressure is largely circular. We need the specialist graduates to provide the teachers, and we need the teachers to grow the number of specialist graduates. But if most maths graduates enter teaching, as they do even discounting those teaching outside the maintained sector or in HE, then this weakens the extended argument that we need more maths teachers, because maths is a key school subject, because widespread high-level maths skill (rather than arithmetic) is important for the economy and society in general. Similar arguments can be made about school-level science, religious studies, literature and, indeed, almost any curriculum subject. Conclusion

More people consider teaching as a career than those who apply for training. While research conducted with teachers suggests that intrinsic motivation of the kind appealed to by recent TTA adverts in the UK is important for them, research of the kind we report in Chapter 3 suggests that those who consider but reject teaching as an option have more prosaic concerns, about money, career prospects and pupil discipline. There are more applicants for teacher training than places available, and no evidence that those turned away by some institutions are inferior in potential to those accepted by others. If targets and funded places were increased, then more students would be available for training, whenever needed. There are always trained teachers seeking jobs but unable to find them. If there were greater respect for the experience of mature applicants, then the shortfall of teachers aged 30 to 40 could be overcome almost immediately. There are teachers fully capable of teaching in shortage subjects for compulsory age groups, but who have a degree whose title (such as economics or engineering) does not match the title used in the National Curriculum (such as maths). Much of teachers' time is used in bureaucratic and managerial tasks, and there are some indications that teachers in shortage subjects are more likely to be promoted 'out' of the classroom to management roles. Areas with high PTRs still manage to generate the smallest average class sizes, and keeping the number and type of schools to a minimum in urban areas can lead to a more efficient use of teachers. At each stage, therefore, from career choice to the deployment of teachers in classrooms, there is considerable slack in the system. The key issue in teacher supply concerns running this system as efficiently as possible. There is no great crisis, either passing or looming, and so no need for further major and headline-grabbing policy initiatives.

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Index A-levels 7, 10, 30, 40, 44, 64-5 Academies 118: see also City Technology Colleges (CTCs) achievement gap 149 age 4, 6, 7, 68-71 distribution 95, 105-6, 129 Association of Graduate Recruiters (AGR) 9-10 Association of University and College Lecturers (AUCL) 10, 12 background: see also class cultural 38 educational 37, 126 family 39, 42, 43, 48, 53 social 126 socio-economic 38 Barclays Bank 10 ' biologicalisation' 119 Blunkett, David 10 British Educational Research Association (BERA) 86 bureaucracy 13, 120 bursaries 16-17: see also loans shortage subject (SSB) 48, 50-1, 62 California 152-4 career aspirations 64 break 107, 130 choice 44-7 decisions 18,51 structure 41-2 trajectory 22

Chief Inspector of Schools 6,13 child-rearing 106, 107, 120, 125: see also maternity Citizenship 72 City Technology Colleges (CTCs) 118, 123; see also

Academies and specialist schools class: see also background occupational 40 social 38,40 class sizes 95, 101, 103-5, 163, 165 Cockcroft Committee 109 completion rates 32 cross-border movement 128 'crisis' 7, 8, 18, 60, 100, 109, 113, 119 accounts 5, 116, 129 Curriculum Cymraeg 128 debt 9: see also loans, student disability 75, 80-1, 162 discipline 13-14 dissatisfaction 6 dyslexia 81 economic cycle 11,167 Education and Employment Committee 13 educational background 126, educational psychologists 121 Employment Based Route (EBR) 14, 58, 72 error, measurement 41 Estyn 5

192

Index

ethnicity 7, 38, 39, 48, 73-5, 79-80,108, 162 Exeter University 13 experimental designs 148, 160 fast-track 15 fees tuition 9, 16-17 variable 'top-up' 130 feminisation 108 financial benefit 92 difficulty 83 gain 17 incentives 14, 15, 17-18, 31, 38, 43, 45, 47-53 support 16-17: see also bursaries funding per capita 88 school 9, 167-8 student 3 General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) 64 General Teaching Council Wales (GTCW) 115-16 golden handcuff 48,50 hello 14, 15, 17, 71 graduate employers 10 employment 11 labour market 9, 167 professions 8,9 Graduate Teacher Programme 56 Graduate Teacher Training Registry (GTTR) 3, 29, 30 Grants 49: see also bursaries in-service training 14 training 48, 50-2, 62 Green Paper 15, 16 gross domestic product (GDP) 167 Higher Education Careers Services Unit 10-11

Higher Education Funding Council Wales (HEFCW) 29 Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) 22-3, 63, 169 Houghton enquiry 9 House of Commons 9 House of Commons Science and Technology Committee 64 House of Commons Select Committee on Education and Skills 11-12, 14, 17, 160 human capital theory 38 ill-health 105, 120, 128, 130 redefinition 125 image 17 negative 12 Institute for Employment Studies 13,44 institutional effect 88, 92, 141: see also school effect job satisfaction 17, 37, 43-5: see also motivation, intrinsic Labour Force Survey 75, Labour government 4 language, first 92 loans 17: see also bursaries maintenance 9 student 17 Local Education Authority (LEA) 125, 127, 129-30 Local Government Association 105 longitudinal analysis 160 maternity 106, 128: see also childrearing missing cases 80 moderation, national 92 morale 11-12, 17-18 motivation intrinsic 37, 41, 45-6, 161 extrinsic 38, 45, 161-2 financial 17 multi-level models 32, 88

Index

National Assembly for Wales (NAfW) 24, 166 National Association of Headteachers (NAHT) 7-8 National Association of Schoolmasters/Union of Women Teachers (NASUWT) 16, 105 National College for School Leadership (NCSL) 15 National Curriculum 65, 71-72, 148, 162, 171 National Employers' Organisation (NEO) 120 National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) 63 National Union of Teachers (NUT) 5, 9, 12, 32 New Earnings Survey (NES) 11 Newly Qualified Teachers (NQTs) 76 No Child Left Behind 19, 25-6, 143-55 Non-participants 37,39 non-response 125 Office for Standards in Education (OFSTED) 7, 8, 23, 78, 83, 85-7 Open University 29, 89, 166 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 19, 100-1, 129, 135-6 over-supply 129, 161 parents 40 pay 8-12, 17: see also salary

by results 16 low 8,41,47,120 performance-related (PRP) 12, 15-16 pensions 12, 122 age 7 policy change 126 personal experience 38-9, 42, 47

193

political arithmetic 31 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 25, 28-9, 135, 160 promotion 42 property ladder 8 pupil discipline 41 numbers 96-9, 129 pupil:teacher ratios (PTRs) 5, 26, 29, 32, 62, 95, 98-105, 109, 139, 164-5, 168-9 qualifications prior 65-70, 78-80 qualified teacher status (QTS) 22-3, 30, 32, 77-83, 89-92, 98-9, 105, 109, 121 quality teacher 3-4,7,67,90-2,112, 129, 143-155,161 training 14 RAND Corporation 152 recruitment 'time bomb' 95, 106, 130, 164 regional variation 7, 63, 101, 125-128, 163 regression: see also multi-level models linear 88 logistic 31-2, 42-7, 52 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) 23, 66-7, 71, 74, 78, 83, 86-7 research-based teaching 92 resignations 19, 122-4, 128 response rates 22, 33: see also nonresponse retirement 5, 12, 111, 125, 128: see also resignations early 105, 122, 130 'time bomb' 6, 111 Russell Group 21

194

Index

salary 8-11, 13, 15, 17, 38, 162: see also pay

higher 8 poor 11 sampling 22,41 School Centred Initial Teacher Training (SCITT) 4, 24, 29, 56, 58, 71, 74, 87 school choice 168 effect 141 effectiveness 77 location 25, 139 nursery 101-2, 126 size 25, 96, 138 School Performance Award Scheme 15 schools independent 101-2, 116, 120-1, 123 special 120 specialist 11 School Teachers Review Body (STRB) 13, 24, 119,124-5, 127 Secondary Heads Association (SHA) 9 Secretary of State for Education 64,76 sex distribution 7, 107-8 sixth-form colleges 124 students 7 special educational needs (SEN) 139 measures 151 standardized outcome measures 82 status 53 high 47 low 12,47 subject knowledge 7, 23, 41 shortage 4, 8, 14, 17, 18, 39, 63-4, 118, 136, 144, 169-70

specialist 7,71-2,95,112 vocational 22 targets, recruitment 4, 9 60-5, 73, 166, 171 taster courses 14 teachers head 3, 25, 28, 112-13, 140, 164 non-regular 109-10, 11 'underqualified' 7, 109, 147 unqualified 33, 109, 163 Teachers' Pension Scheme 122 Teacher Training Authority (TTA) 3-4, 14, 17, 22-3, 31, 32, 64, 67, 73, 86-7,129,170-1 Teacherline 14 Times Educational Supplement (TES) 120 Treasury 64 turnover 12, 18, 21, 25, 27-8, 121-25, 137-41 UNESCO 8 Universities Council for the Education of Teachers (UCET) 12 Universities and Colleges Admissions Services (UCAS) 22,42 USA 128, 143-55 US Department of Education 25 vacancies 21,26-7,32,95,111-20 'hard to fill' 163 unfilled 3, 18, 119 wages 8: see also pay wastage 21, 27, 28, 59, 76, 111, 120-1, 125-7: see also turnover Welsh Office 62 Wisconsin 150-2 working conditions 9, 12, 42 workload 12-13, 15, 41, 46-7, 120