%HULFKWH]X 7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ 6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOV...
10 downloads
448 Views
13MB Size
Report
This content was uploaded by our users and we assume good faith they have the permission to share this book. If you own the copyright to this book and it is wrongfully on our website, we offer a simple DMCA procedure to remove your content from our site. Start by pressing the button below!
Report copyright / DMCA form
%HULFKWH]X 7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ 6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ 7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ 7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO3URGXFWV 9,&+*/ %HXUWHLOXQJXQG¹EHUZDFKXQJGHU5HVLVWHQ]VLWXDWLRQEHLXQG QDFKGHU=XODVVXQJYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
,QKDOWVYHU]HLFKQLV
6WHIDQ6FKHLG *HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ 5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
*HVLQH+DKQ 7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO3URGXFWV9,&+*/
&KULVWLQH6FKZDU] %HXUWHLOXQJXQG¹EHUZDFKXQJGHU5HVLVWHQ]VLWXDWLRQEHLXQGQDFKGHU=XODVVXQJYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
* HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJ YRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ 6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLW YRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
6WHIDQ6FKHLG %XQGHVDPWIÙU9HUEUDXFKHUVFKXW]XQG/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLW%9/ %HUOLQ .RUUHVSRQGHQ]DQ'U66FKHLG%9/$EW7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHO5HI5ÙFNVWÁQGHSKDUPDNRORJLVFK ZLUNVDPHU6WRIIH0DXHUVWUD¼Ht%HUOLQ 7HOHPDLO6WHIDQ6FKHLG#EYOEXQGGH
%9/5HIHUDW $XIJDEHQVFKZHUSXQNWH /HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLW LP=XODVVXQJVYHUIDKUHQ +|FKVWPHQJHQ05/ IU5FNVWlQGHYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ )HVWOHJXQJYRQ:DUWH]HLWHQ 3UIXQJYRQDQDO\WLVFKHQ.RQWUROOPHWKRGHQ ´ GHVN UHYLHZµ $QZHQGHUVLFKHUKHLW Å 8VHU6DIHW\´ 8QEHGHQNOLFKNHLWIUGHQ$QZHQGHU =LHOWLHUVLFKHUKHLW 7R[LNRORJLVFKH8QEHGHQNOLFKNHLWIUGDV=LHOWLHU
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HFKWOLFKHU.RQWH[W
¾
92(* 1U )HVWOHJXQJYRQ5FNVWDQGVK|FKVWPHQJHQ0D[LPXP 5HVLGXH /LPLWV05/ IUSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPH 6WRIIHLQ/HEHQVPLWWHOQYRPWLHULVFKHQ8UVSUXQJV
¾
5LFKWOLQLH(*XQG92(* 1U (XURSlLVFKH=XODVVXQJVYHUIDKUHQIU7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHO GH]HQWUDOLVLHUWH]HQWUDOLVLHUWH9HUIDKUHQ
¾
$U]QHLPLWWHOJHVHW] 1DWLRQDOH=XODVVXQJVYHUIDKUHQ
6W6FK
)HVWOHJXQJYRQ 5FNVWDQGVK|FKVWPHQJHQ 0D[LPXP5HVLGXH /LPLWV05/
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
05/%DVLF/DZ
HXUOH[HXURSDHX/H[8UL6HUY/H[8UL6HUYGR"XUL 2-/(13')
6W6FK
05/ :KDW DUH WKH\ IRU" 0D[LPXPUHVLGXH OLPLWVDUH WKH SRLQWV RIUHIHUHQFH IRU 9 WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RIZLWKGUDZDO SHULRGV IRU YHWHULQDU\ PHGLFLQDO SURGXFWV WREH XVHG LQ IRRGSURGXFLQJ DQLPDOV 'LU(&&5 9 WKH FRQWURO RIUHVLGXHV LQIRRG RIDQLPDO RULJLQ LQWKH 0HPEHU 6WDWHV DQGDWERUGHU LQVSHFWLRQ SRVWV 'LU(&
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
6WUXFWXUHRIWKH5HJXODWLRQ 7\SHVRI5HIHUHQFH9DOXHV 7LWOH, *HQHUDO3URYLVLRQV 6FRSH DQG'HILQLWLRQV ¾ 7LWOH,,0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV05/ &KDSWHU,5LVN$VVHVVPHQWDQGULVN PDQDJHPHQW 6HFWLRQVXEVWDQFHVIRUXVHLQ903V 6HFWLRQVXEVWDQFHVQRWLQWHQGHGIRUXVHLQ903V &KDSWHU,,&ODVVLILFDWLRQ RISKDUPDFRORJLFDOO\ DFWLYH VXEVWDQFHV
¾ 7LWOH,,,5HIHUHQFHSRLQWVIRUDFWLRQ
6W6FK
0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV
2SLQLRQE\WKH(0($
¾ 6XEVWDQFHV,QWHQGHGIRUXVHLQ903 ¾ $FWLRQE\3KDUPDFHXWLFDOFRPSDQ\VHHNLQJ0$ $UWLFOH 6XEVWDQFHIRUXVHLQ903IRUIRRGSURGXFLQJDQLPDOV LQWKH(8VKDOO EHVXEMHFWWRDQ RSLQLRQRIWKH(0($ RQWKHPD[LPXPUHVLGXHOLPLW ([FHSWLRQ$&RGH[$OLPHQWDULXV05/LVDYDLODEOHZLWKRXWREMHFWLRQ IURP(8&RPPXQLW\'HOHJDWLRQ $UWLFOH (0($WRFDUU\RXWVFLHQWLILFULVNDVVHVVPHQWDQGGUDZXSULVN PDQDJHPHQWUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV
2SLQLRQE\WKH(0($
¾6XEVWDQFHV1RW LQWHQGHGIRUXVHLQ903 ¾$FWLRQE\&RPPLVVLRQRU06UHTXHVWIRU05/ $UWLFOH 6XEVWDQFHDXWKRULVHGDV903LQDWKLUGFRXQWU\ QRDSSOLFDWLRQSXUVXDQW WR$UWLFOH 6XEVWDQFHLVLQFOXGHGLQ903WREHXVHGSXUVXDQWWR$UWLFOHRI 'LUHFWLYH(&FDVFDGH QRDSSOLFDWLRQSXUVXDQWWR$UWLFOH $UWLFOH 6XEVWDQFHVFRQWDLQHGLQELRFLGDO SURGXFWV XVHGLQDQLPDOKXVEDQGU\DVGHILQHGLQ'LUHFWLYH(&&ODVVLILFDWLRQ RIVXEVWDQFHVLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWK$UWLFOH
6W6FK
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV &ODVVHVRIVXEVWDQFHV
&RPSDUDEOHWR$QQH[HVDQGRI5HJXODWLRQ
$PD[LPXPUHVLGXHOLPLW 2QWKHEDVHRIRSLQLRQRI(0($ 9RWHE\&RPPXQLW\LQ&RGH[$OLPHQWDULXV
$SURYLVLRQDOPD[LPXPUHVLGXHOLPLW ,QFRPSOHWHGDWDEXWQRJURXQGVIRUVXSSRVLQJDUHOHYDQWULVN
7KHDEVHQFHRIDPD[LPXPUHVLGXHOLPLW 1RWQHFHVVDU\IRUSURWHFWLRQRIKXPDQKHDOWK
$SURKLELWLRQRQWKHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIDVXEVWDQFH :KHUHDQ\UHVLGXHPD\FRQVWLWXWHDKD]DUG ZKHUHQRILQDOFRQFOXVLRQFRQFHUQLQJKXPDQKHDOWKZLWKUHJDUGWR UHVLGXHVRIDVXEVWDQFHFDQEHGUDZQ
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
:KRDUHWKHSDUWLHVLQYROYHGFRQFHUQHG" 5HJXODWRUV (XURSHDQ0HGLFLQHV$JHQF\(0($ (XURSHDQ)RRG6DIHW\$XWKRULW\()6$ (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ 0HPEHU6WDWHVRIWKH(8 1DWLRQDO &RPSHWHQW$XWKRULWLHV 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO,QGXVWU\ 9HWHULQDULDQDQG3URGXFHUV &RQVXPHU
6W6FK
´ 0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWVµ ² 3URFHGXUHIRU903
$SSOLFDQW
(0($ &200,66,21
6FLHQWLILF 6WXGLHV +D]DUG ([SRVXUH
5LVN $VVHVVPHQW 0DQDJHPHQW2SWLRQV 5HJXODWLRQ
$UWLFOH D G
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
05/%DVLF*XLGHOLQHV
KWWSHFHXURSDHXHQWHUSULVHSKDUPDFHXWLFDOVHXGUDOH[YROBHQKWP
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV ² 'DWD5HTXLUHPHQWV
+D]DUG $VVHVVPHQW
([SRVXUH$VVHVVPHQW
7R[LFRORJLFDO'DWD $FXWHVXE FKURQLFWR[LFLW\ 5HSURGXFWLRQ'HYHORSP7R[ 0XWDJHQLFLW\&DUFLQRJHQLFLW\ ,PPXQRORJLFDOHIIHFWV QHXURWR[LFLW\LIDSSOLFDEOH +XPDQGDWDLIDYDLODEOH
3KDUPDFRNLQHWLFV %DVLF$'0( &RPSDUDWLYHPHWDEROLVP ´ WR[LFRORJLRFDOµ YV IRRGVSHFLHV 5HVLGXHGHSOHWLRQGDWD 7RWDO5HVLGXH 0DUNHUUHVLGXHWLVVXHV
3KDUPDFRORJLFDO'DWD 3KDUPDFRG\QDPLFV SULPDU\VHFRQGDU\
$QDO\WLFDO0HWKRGV ´ 5HJXODWRU\PHWKRGµ
0LFURELRORJLFDO'DWD (IIHFWVRQKXPDQJXWIORUD
6W6FK
0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV
² +D]DUG$VVHVVPHQW
&ODVVLFDO &RQFHSW +D]DUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ +D]DUG &KDUDWHULVDWLRQ 12(/ ([WUDSRODWLRQWRKXPDQ$', 12(/[ $FFHSWDEOH'DLO\,QWDNH$',
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV
² +D]DUG$VVHVVPHQW
'LIIHUHQWW\SHV RI+D]DUGV DQG$',V
3KDUPDFROKD]DUG
$',3+$50
7R[LFRORJKD]DUG
$',72;,&2/
0LFURELRORJKD]DUG
$',0,&52%,2/
2YHUDOO $',
7KH FRQFHSW RI$5I'LV QRW XVHG
6W6FK
0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV
² +D]DUG$VVHVVPHQW
6WHSVWREHWDNHQ 5HYLHZHQWLUHGDWDEDVHIRUSKDUPDFRORJLFDODQG WR[LFRORJLFDOHIIHFWVDQGLGHQWLI\WKHFULWLFDOHIIHFWV HQGSRLQWV 'HWHUPLQHIRUHDFKFULWLFDOHQGSRLQWWKH12$ (/ /2$ (/ DVWKH KLJKHVW GRVHDWZKLFKWKHUHLVQR VWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHHIIHFWVVHHQ LQWHVWDQLPDOVDQGFRQWUROVH[SHULPHQW0DNHXVHRI GRVHUHVSRQVHUHODWLRQVKLSZKHUHSRVVLEOH ,GHQWLI\WKHRYHUDOO 12$ (/ IRUWKHPRVWVHQVLWLYHHIIHFW LQWKHPRVWVHQVLWLYHVSHFLHVORZHVW12$ (/ DVWKH EDVLVIRUWKH$',
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
'RVH5HVSRQVH5HODWLRQVKLS
12$ (/ /2$ (/
5HVSRQVH
'RVH
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV
² +D]DUG$VVHVVPHQW
12$ (/
IROG
$',
IROG
6SHFLHV 'LIIHUHQFHV
+XPDQ 9DULDELOLW\
6W6FK
0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV
² +D]DUG$VVHVVPHQW
$IHZZRUGVRQWKH0LFURELRORJLFDO$', +D]DUGVUHODWHGWRXVHRIDQWLELRWLFV 9 'LVUXSWLRQRIFRORQLVDWLRQEDUULHUIXQFWLRQRILQWHVWLQDOIORUD 9 ,QFUHDVLQJWKHSRSXODWLRQRIUHVLVWDQWEDFWHULDDFTXLVLWLRQRI UHVLVWDQFHLQFUHDVHLQWKHSURSRUWLRQRIOHVVVHQVLWLYHRUJDQLVPV 9 'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI12(&IRUERWKHQGSRLQWVXVLQJ0,&GDWDDQGRWKHU LQIRUPDWLRQ 9 7KH12(&LV32'IRUD´ PLFURELRORJLFDOµ $',LQKXPDQVVDIHGRVH WRFRYHUPLFURELRORJLFDOKD]DUGV
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
'DWD5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU 'HULYLQJ WKH 05/
6W6FK
'DWD5HTXLUHPHQWV )LYHW\SHV RILQIRUPDWLRQ QHHGHG
¬
$FFHSWDEOH'DLO\,QWDNH$',
¬
&RPSDUDWLYHPHWDEROLVPVWXGLHV
¬
7RWDOUHVLGXHGHSOHWLRQVWXGLHVLQWDUJHWVSHFLHV
¬
6SHFLILFPDUNHUUHVLGXHGHSOHWLRQVWXGLHVLQWDUJHW VSHFLHV
¬
$QDO\WLFDOPHWKRGVVXLWDEOHIRUUHVLGXHFRQWUROYDOLGDWLRQ
FULWHULDGLVFXVVHGODWHU
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
¬ $FFHSWDEOH'DLO\,QWDNH$', 9 (VWLPDWHRIWKHUHVLGXHWKDWFDQEHLQJHVWHGGDLO\RYHUD OLIHWLPH ZLWKRXWDQ\DSSUHFLDEOHKHDOWKULVNHJ *ORVVDU\RI´ 9ROXPHµ 9 &HQWUDOKHDOWKEDVHGJXLGDQFHYDOXHLQWKH´ FKURQLFµ H[SRVXUHDVVHVVPHQWRIYHWHULQDU\GUXJUHVLGXHVDQG DVVHVVPHQWVLQRWKHUDUHDVRIIRRG VDIHW\ 9 05/VDUHHVWDEOLVKHGVXFKWKDWWKHPD[LPXPSRVVLEOH LQWDNHRIUHVLGXHVGRHVQRWH[FHHGWKH$',ZKHQ903 DUHXVHGDFFRUGLQJWRODEHOLQVWUXFWLRQV DUHXVHGDFFRUGLQJWRODEHOLQVWUXFWLRQV
6W6FK
¬7RWDO5HVLGXHV ¾ 5HVLGXHGHILQLWLRQLQFOXGHVDOOUHVLGXHVDFWLYH VXEVWDQFHV DOVRPHWDEROLWHVGHJUDGDWLRQSURGXFWV $QG ¾ $OOGUXJGHULYHGUHVLGXHVDUHDVVXPHGWRKDYHWKH VDPHKD]DUGSRWHQWLDODVSDUHQWFRPSRXQGLQWKH DEVHQFHRIHYLGHQFHWRWKHFRQWUDU\ 7KHUHIRUH ¾ $EDVLFUHTXLUHPHQWLVWKHFRQGXFWRIVWXGLHVWKDW GHPRQVWUDWHWKHWRWDOGUXJGHULYHGUHVLGXHV
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
¬0DUNHU5HVLGXH 0DUNHUUHVLGXHVHOHFWHGWRHQDEOHUHVLGXHFRQWURO 3URSHUWLHVRIWKHPDUNHUUHVLGXH ¾ FRPSRQHQWRIWKH755RUFKHPLFDOGHULYDWLYHWKHUHRI RIWHQVLPSO\ SDUHQWFRPSRXQG ¾ UHODWLRQVKLSWRWKHWRWDOUHVLGXHLVNQRZQ RIWRWDO ¾ SK\VLFDOFKHPLFDOPHWKRGVDUHDYDLODEOHWRDQDO\VHWKH PDUNHUUHVLGXH´ UHJXODWRU\PHWKRGµ ¾ ´ FROGµ PDUNHUUHVLGXHVWXG\LQWKHWDUJHWDQLPDOQHHGHG
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
'DWDUHTXLUHPHQWV &KHFNOLVW 9 $', 9 (VWDEOLVKHGFRPSDUDELOLW\RIPHWDEROLVP WDUJHWYV WR[ VSHFLHV 9 7RWDOUHVLGXHGDWD 9 0DUNHUUHVLGXH 9 0DUNHUUHVLGXHGHSOHWLRQGDWD
6W6FK
([SRVXUH$VVHVVPHQW
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
([SRVXUH$VVHVVPHQW² &DOFXODWLRQV
([SRVXUHHVWLPDWH3RLQWHVWLPDWH ([SRVXUHJGD\ &RQVXPSWLRQ ILJXUH [ IRRGEDVNHW NJ
3UHVHQFH 3UREDELOLW\
[
7RWDO5HVLGXH &RQF JNJ
6W6FK
5LVN&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ ² 05/&DOFXODWLRQV
,WHUDWLYH 5HFDOFXODWLRQ
7RWDO5HVLGXHV (GLEOH 7LVVXHV DWW;
)RRG%DVNHW 'DLO\,QWDNHDWW; ,QWDNH!$',
,QWDNH$', 32'IRU 05/
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5LVN&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ ² 05/&DOFXODWLRQV 7RWDO5HVLGXHV )RRG%DVNHW
´ .LQHWLF $SSURDFK´
$',
W$', 32'IRU 05/
6W6FK
5LVN&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ ² 05/&DOFXODWLRQV )RRG%DVNHW 5HVLGXHV
´ .LQHWLF $SSURDFK´
W$', 7RWDO5HVLGXH )RRG%DVNHW $',
$', 0DUNHU 5HVLGXH&RQF JNJ
05/ &RQF0DUNHU5HVLGXH LQ7LVVXH DWW$',
05/
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
)RUZKLFKWLVVXHVDUH05/FDOFXODWHG" 7DUJHWWLVVXHVIRU05/VDOOHGLEOH WLVVXHVSURGXFWVIURPWUHDWHGDQLPDOV /LYHU .LGQH\ 0XVFOH0XVFOH6NLQ )DW)DW6NLQ ,QM6LWH
EXWDOVR PLON HJJV KRQH\
6W6FK
+RZLVWKH$',GLYLGHGEHWZHHQWDUJHWWLVVXHV" )RRG %DVNHW 5HVLGXHV
0DUNHU5HVLGXH &RQFHQWUDWLRQ
,QWDNH$', )DW
0XVFOH
/LYHU
.LGQH\
7RWDO)RRG %DVNHW 5HVLGXHV J3HUVRQ'D\
.LGQH\ 05/ JNJ
/LYHU 0XVFOH )DW 7LPH
W$', 6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
7KH7LVVXH'LVWULEXWLRQ&RQFHSW7'& :K\LVLWXVHG"
9 7LVVXHGLVWULEXWLRQFRQFHSWPHDQVWKDW05/VDUHDOORFDWHG
IROORZLQJWKHDFWXDOUHVLGXHGLVWULEXWLRQREVHUYHGLQWKH GLIIHUHQWLQWDUJHWWLVVXHVWLVVXHVZLWKKLJKHVWUHVLGXHVJHWWKH KLJKHVW05/DQGYLFHYHUVD
9 ,IWKLVFRQFHSWLVIROORZHGHDFKWDUJHWWLVVXH05/LVD
PRQLWRUIRUGHSOHWLRQRIUHVLGXHVIURPDOORWKHUHGLEOHWLVVXHV WREHORZWKH$',DQGFDQVHUYHDVWLVVXHIRUFRQWURORI UHVLGXHV
9 ,QDGGLWLRQWKHZLWKGUDZDOSHULRGVIRUHDFKHGLEOHWLVVXHZLOO DSSUR[LPDWHO\EHWKHVDPH
6W6FK
05/LQPLONHJJVKRQH\ 9 ,ISURGXFWXVHGLQODFWDWLQJFDWWOHOD\LQJKHQVRUEHHV 05/VQHHGHGLQPLONHJJVDQGKRQH\ 9 &HUWDLQSRUWLRQRIWKH$',LVUHVHUYHGIRUWKHVH FRPPRGLWLHVHJ GHSHQGLQJRQWKHVXEVWDQFH DQGDQWLFLSDWHGXVHV 9 7KHFDOFXODWLRQIRUPLONDQGHJJVLVDQDORJRXVWRWKH FDOFXODWLRQIRUWLVVXHV´ NLQHWLFDSSURDFKµ 9 7KHFDOFXODWLRQIRUKRQH\FDQEHPDGHGLUHFWO\RQ WKHEDVLVRIWKH$',HTXLYDOHQWDYDLODEOH
UDGLRODEHOOHGGDWDQRWUHTXLUHG
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
'XDOXVHDQGDJJUHJDWHH[SRVXUH 9 &5(& 1R´ 7KHVFLHQWLILFULVNDVVHVVPHQW VKDOOFRQFHUQ>«@UHVLGXHVWKDWRFFXULQIRRGRISODQW RULJLQRUWKDWFRPHIURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWµ 9 )RUVRFDOOHGGXDOXVHVXEVWDQFHVLHVXEVWDQFHWKDW DUHXVHGDVSHVWLFLGHVRUELRFLGHVRUWKDWPLJKWRFFXU LQGULQNLQJZDWHU DJJUHJDWHH[SRVXUH ZLOOEH FRQVLGHUHG 9 7KHFRPELQHGH[SRVXUHIURPWKHVHVRXUFHVZLOOEH VXEWUDFWHGIURPWKH$',WKXVORZHULQJWKHSRUWLRQRI WKH$',DYDLODEOHIRUYHWHULQDU\XVHV
6W6FK
05/FDOFXODWLRQ 6XPPDU\
)RRGEDVNHW RI
$', JNJEZ
J PXVFOH JOLYHU J NLGQH\ IDW J OPLON JHJJV J KRQH\
05/ JNJ
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
05/FDOFXODWLRQ 6XPPDU\ 6WHS
'HWHUPLQHWKHWLPHSRLQWZKHQWRWDOUHVLGXHLQIRRG EDVNHWDUHEHORZ$',W$',
6WHS
$OORFDWHDSRUWLRQRIWKH$',WRHDFKWDUJHWWLVVXHV LGHDOO\EDVHGRQ7'&FRQFHSW
6WHS
&KRRVHD0DUNHU5HVLGXHVXLWDEOHIRUUHVLGXH PRQLWRULQJ DQGHVWLPDWHDQ05/LQHDFKWDUJHWWLVVXH
6WHS
&KHFNLIWKHHVWLPDWHG05/VDUHIXOO\LQFRPSOLDQFHZLWK WKH$',LHLIWKH70',EDVHGRQIRRGEDVNHWFRQVXPSWLRQ ILJXUHVDQGUDWLRPDUNHUWRWDOUHVLGXHV LV $',
6W6FK
05/FDOFXODWLRQ 6XPPDU\
5HVLGXH,QWDNH70',
70',
Q
&[)5 $', L
& &RQFHQWUDWLRQ0DUNHU5HVLGXH7LVVXH ) )RRG&RQVXPSWLRQ)DFWRUHJNJ0XVFOHNJ /LYHUNJ.LGQH\NJ)DW 5 5DWLR0DUNHU7RWDO5HVLGXH Q 1XPEHURIWLVVXHVPXVFOHOLYHUNLGQH\IDWPLONHJJV KRQH\
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
([WUDSRODWLRQRI05/V &5(& 1R PD[LPXP UHVLGXH OLPLWVHVWDEOLVKHG IRU D SKDUPDFRORJLFDOO\ DFWLYH VXEVWDQFH LQDSDUWLFXODU IRRGVWXII >PD\ EH XVHG@IRU DQRWKHU IRRGVWXII GHULYHG IURPWKH VDPH VSHFLHVRU PD[LPXP UHVLGXH OLPLWVHVWDEOLVKHG IRU DSKDUPDFRORJLFDOO\ DFWLYH VXEVWDQFH LQRQH RU PRUH VSHFLHV IRU RWKHU VSHFLHV´
6W6FK
([WUDSRODWLRQRI05/V ««DQG9ROXPHDOORZV05/VWREHH[WUDSRODWHG ZLWKLQFODVVHVRIDQLPDOV 6SHFLHVIRUZKLFK05/VKDYH EHHQVHW
([WUDSRODWLRQVWR
0DMRUUXPLQDQW
$OOUXPLQDQWV
0DMRUUXPLQDQWPLON
$OOUXPLQDQWPLON
0DMRUPRQRJDVWULF PDPPDO
([WUDSRODWLRQWRDOOPRQRJDVWULF PDPPDOV
&KLFNHQDQGHJJV
3RXOWU\DQGSRXOWU\HJJV
6DOPRQLGDH
$OOILQILVK
(LWKHUDPDMRUUXPLQDQWRUDPDMRU +RUVHV PRQRJDVWULF PDPPDO
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
'HFLVLRQWKDWQR05/LVQHFHVVDU\
05/QRWQHFHVVDU\IRUWKHSURWHFWLRQRIKXPDQKHDOWKEHFDXVH XVHRIWKHVXEVWDQFHLQIRRGSURGXFLQJDQLPDOVZRXOGQRWUHVXOW LQUHVLGXHVRIFRQFHUQ &DQGLGDWHV 5HVLGXHVZHOOEHORZ$',DWÅ ]HUR´ ZLWKGUDZDOWLPH SRRURUDEVHQWDEVRUSWLRQ UDSLGO\DQGH[WHQVLYHO\GHWR[LILHGRUH[FUHWHG 6XEVWDQFHLVRIHQGRJHQRXVRULJLQ 6XEVWDQFHLVDQRUPDOFRPSRQHQWRIWKHGLHWLQKXPDQV 6XEVWDQFHELRORJLFDOO\LQHUW
6W6FK
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI0D[LPXP5HVLGXH/LPLWV &ODVVHVRIVXEVWDQFHV &RPSDUDEOHWR$QQH[HVDQGRI5HJXODWLRQ
$PD[LPXPUHVLGXHOLPLW 2QWKHEDVHRIRSLQLRQRI(0($ 9RWHE\&RPPXQLW\LQ&RGH[$OLPHQWDULXV
$SURYLVLRQDOPD[LPXPUHVLGXHOLPLW ,QFRPSOHWHGDWDEXWQRJURXQGVIRUVXSSRVLQJDUHOHYDQWULVN
7KHDEVHQFHRIDPD[LPXPUHVLGXHOLPLW 1RWQHFHVVDU\IRUSURWHFWLRQRIKXPDQKHDOWK
$SURKLELWLRQRQWKHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIDVXEVWDQFH :KHUHDQ\UHVLGXHPD\FRQVWLWXWHDKD]DUG ZKHUHQRILQDOFRQFOXVLRQFRQFHUQLQJKXPDQKHDOWKZLWKUHJDUGWR UHVLGXHVRIDVXEVWDQFHFDQEHGUDZQ
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
(QWU\RI05/LQ5HJXODWLRQ &200,66,215(*8/$7,21(& 1R« RI>«@RQSKDUPDFRORJLFDOO\DFWLYHVXEVWDQFHVDQGWKHLUFODVVLILFDWLRQ UHJDUGLQJPD[LPXPUHVLGXHOLPLWVLQIRRGVWXIIVRIDQLPDORULJLQ
6W6FK
$QDO\WLFDOPHWKRGV
6HWWLQJRI05/VUHTXLUHVDYDLODELOLW\RI DQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGVWRPRQLWRUUHVLGXHVQR 05/ZLWKRXU DQDO\WLFDOPHWKRG 7KHUHZLOOEHDVHSDUDWHSUHVHQWDWLRQRQ YDOLGDWLRQRIWKHDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGV
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5,6.0$1$*(0(17 6HWWLQJ RIZLWKGUDZDO SHULRGV LQWKH PDUNHLQJ DXWKRULVDWLRQ SURFHGXUH
6W6FK
:LWKGUDZDO3HULRG /HJLVODWLYH%DFNJURXQG
',5(&7,9((&QHZ'LUHFWLYH(& $ZLWKGUDZDOSHULRGLV
³7KHSHULRGQHFHVVDU\EHWZ HHQWKHODVW DGP LQLVWUDWLRQ RIWKHYHWHULQDU\P HGLFLQDOSURGXFW WRDQLP DOVXQGHUQRUP DOFRQGLWLRQV RIXVHDQGLQ DFFRUGDQFHZ LWKWKHSURYLVLRQVRIWKLV'LUHFWLYH DQGWKH SURGXFWLRQRIIRRGVWXIIVIURP VXFK DQLP DOVLQRUGHUWRSURWHFWSXEOLFKHDOWKE\ HQVXULQJWKDWVXFKIRRGVWXIIVGRQRWFRQWDLQ UHVLGXHVLQTXDQWLWLHVLQH[ FHVVRIWKHP D[ LP XP UHVLGXHOLP LWVIRUDFWLYHVXEVWDQFHVODLGGRZ Q SXUVXDQWWR5 HJXODWLRQ((& 1 R ´
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
:LWKGUDZDO3HULRG /HJLVODWLYH%DFNJURXQG
7ZRFXUUHQWZD\VWRREWDLQDZLWKGUDZDOSHULRG 'HFHQWUDOLVHGSURFHGXUH PXWXDOUHFRJQLWLRQ $SSOLFDQWVHHNVDSSURYDOLQD06$IWHUDSSURYDO WKDW06UHIHUVDSSOLFDWLRQWRRWKHU(&FRXQWULHV 'LUHFWLYH(&DVDPHQGHGE\'LUHFWLYH (& &HQWUDOLVHGSURFHGXUHEDVHGRQGLUHFWHYDOXDWLRQ IURPWKH(0($&903OHDGLQJGLUHFWO\WRVLQJOH PDUNHWLQJDXWKRULVDWLRQYDOLGWKURXJKRXWWKH(8 &5DVDPHQGHGE\&5
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
%DVLF5HVLGXH6WXG\5HTXLUHPHQWV
:LWKGUDZDOSHULRGVDUHGHWHUPLQHGIURPUHVXOWV RIUHVLGXHGHSOHWLRQVWXGLHV LQWKHLQWHQGHG VSHFLHVWDUJHWVSHFLHV DQGDUHFRQGXFWHGXQGHU VLPXODWHGILHOGXVH FRQGLWLRQV ZLWKWKHLQWHQGHGSURGXFW VDPHURXWH RIDGPLQLVWUDWLRQGRVDJHDQGGXUDWLRQRI WUHDWPHQW 'HSOHWLRQRIUHVLGXHVHJPDUNHUUHVLGXH LQ PHDWPLONHJJV HWFPXVWEHPRQLWRUHGIURPWKH WLPHRIWUHDWPHQW XQWLODWOHDVW WKHWLPHZKHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQVIDOOEHORZ05/V
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
$OWHUQDWLYH$SSURDFKWRHVWDEOLVK:LWKGUDZDO 3HULRGVDOOFRPPRGLWLHV ¾ 7REHXVHGZKHQGDWDGRQRWSHUPLWXVHRI VWDWLVWLFDODSSURDFK ¾ 2QHW\SLFDODSSURDFKWRWKHSUREOHP6HOHFWLRQRI WLPHSRLQWZKHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIUHVLGXHVLQDOO VDPSOHVDUHEHORZWKHUHOHYDQW05/V ¾ $GGLWLRQRID³VDIHW\VSDQ´ WRFRPSHQVDWHIRU XQFHUWDLQWLHVGXHWRELRORJLFDOYDULDELOLW\ RIWLPHSHULRGWRUHDFK05/LQDOO VDPSHOV IRUWLVVXHVHJGHSOHWLRQKDOIOLIH[W
6W6FK
,QMHFWLRQ6LWHV 6SHFLILF3URSHUWLHVRI,QMHFWLRQ6LWH5HVLGXHV ¾ 'HSOHWLRQRIUHVLGXHVFDQEHYHU\VORZDQG HUUDWLFDQGRIWHQPXFKKLJKHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQV WKDQLQQRQLQMHFWLRQVLWHWLVVXHV ¾ 0HWDEROLVPGHJUDGDWLRQRIUHVLGXHV DWLQMHFWLRQ VLWHVRIWHQGLIIHUHQWIURPRWKHUHGLEOHWLVVXHV ¾ 6RPHWLPHVZLGHDQGXQHYHQGLVSHUVLRQRI UHVLGXHV IURPWKHSRLQWRILQMHFWLRQDQGVSHFLILF VDPSOLQJWHFKQLTXHLVQHFHVVDU\WRDFFXUDWHO\ VDPSOHGHWHUPLQHWKHUHVLGXHV ¾ ,QMHFWLRQVLWHUHVLGXHV WHQGWREHQRQFRPSOLDQW ZLWKZLWKGUDZDOSHULRGVIRURWKHUHGLEOHWLVVXHV
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
&903*XLGHOLQHRQ ,QMHFWLRQ6LWH5HVLGXHV
¾ (0($&903³*XLGHOLQHRQ,QMHFWLRQ6LWH 5HVLGXHV(0($&9032FWREHU ¾ %DVLFDVVHVVPHQWSULQFLSOH7KHLQMHFWLRQVLWHLV WUHDWHGDV³QRUPDO´ PXVFOHDQGWKHZLWKGUDZDO SHULRGWREHVHWRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH05/IRU PXVFOHLIWKHUHLVDPXVFOH05/ ¾ )RUVXEVWDQFHVZLWKQR05/IRUPXVFOHWKH LQMHFWLRQVLWHLVWUHDWHGDVPXVFOHDQGWKH ZLWKGUDZDOSHULRGLVVHWZLWKUHIHUHQFHWRWKH $',DQGWKH³IRRGEDVNHW´ KHUHWKHJ PXVFOHSRUWLRQLVVXEVWLWXWHGE\JLQMHFWLRQ VLWH
6W6FK
&903*XLGHOLQHRQ ,QMHFWLRQ6LWH5HVLGXHV
FROOHFWLQMHFWLRQVVLWHDQG GHWHUPLQHWKHUHVLGXHV
<(6
05/IRU PXVFOH "
05/EDVHG
12 $',EDVHG
FRPSDUH PDUNHU UHVLGXHFRQFHQWUDWLRQ ZLWK 05/IRU PXVFOH
FRPSDUH IRRGEDVNHW UHVLGXHV LQFOJ LQMHFWLRQ VLWH ZLWK $',
ZLWKGUDZDO SHULRG LQMHFWLRQ VLWH
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
&903*XLGHOLQHRQ ,QMHFWLRQ6LWH5HVLGXHV
6DPSOLQJLQDWLQMHFWLRQVLWHV &RUH6DPSOH3ULPDU\6DPSOH &\OLQGHUVKDSHGVDPSOHWDNHQDWWKHFHQWUHRIWKH LQMHFWLRQVLWHLQFOWKHQHHGOHWUDFNDUHDRIGUXJ UHOHDVHDQ\DUHDRIWLVVXHUHDFWLRQ 6DPSOHFDJDPRXQWVLPFPFLUFOHFP GHHSVFFPFLUFOHFPGHHS 6XUURXQGLQJ6DPSOH4XDOLW\&RQWURO6DPSOH WDNHQIURPWLVVXHVXUURXQGLQJWKHFRUHVDPSOHWR FKHFNUHOLDELOLW\RIVDPSOLQJ6XJJHVWHGDPRXQW FDJLISRVVLEOH
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
6SHFLILF$VSHFWVIRU(JJV (JJV 1RVSHFLILFJXLGHOLQHVDYDLODEOHQRUHFRPPHQGHGVWDWLVWLFDO PHWKRG :LWKGUDZDOWLPHPXVWFRQVLGHUSK\VLRORJLFDOHJJGHYHORSPHQW SRVVLEOHODJSKDVHRIGHSOHWLRQDIWHUWUHDWPHQW VDPSOHVKDYH WREHFROOHFWHGRYHUDVXIILFLHQWO\ORQJSHULRGPLQGD\V 3URGXFWVZLWKRXW05/ IRUHJJV ¬ OD\LQJKHQV QRWDOORZHGWREHWUHDWHG ¬ SUHOD\KHQV FDQEHRQO\WUHDWHGXQWLODGHILQLWHXSSHUDJHOLPLW ¬ (VWLPDWLRQRIXSSHUDJHOLPLW VHWDQWLFLSDWHGSRLQWRIOD\ZHHNVRIDJH PLQXVWLPHRIWKHIDVWHJJGHYHORSPHQWGD\V PLQXVZLWKGUDZDOSHULRGIRUWLVVXHVHJGD\V PLQXVWUHDWPHQWSHULRGHJGD\V
6W6FK
6SHFLILF$VSHFWVIRU(JJV
5HVLGXHIRUPDWLRQDQGGHSOHWLRQLQHJJ\RON ,QRQSKRUHLQIHHGIRUGD\VSSP
5HVLGXHVJNJ
7UHDWPHQW3HULRGGD\V
'HSOHWLRQ3HULRG
'D\V
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
6SHFLILF$VSHFWVIRU)LVK )LVK 9 0HWDEROLVPHOLPLQDWLRQ RIGUXJFRUUHODWHGZLWKZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUH 9 :LWKGUDZDOSHULRGLVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHDQG WHPSHUDWXUH DQGLVH[SUHVVHGLQGHJUHHGD\V 9 &DOFXODWHG E\ PXOWLSO\LQJ WKH WRWDOQXPEHU RIGD\V QHHGHG WRUHDFK VDIH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ E\ WKH PHDQ GDLO\ ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUH LQGHJUHHV &HOVLXV 9 )RULQVWDQFHDZLWKGUDZDOSHULRGRIGHJUHHGD\VLV FRUUHVSRQGLQJGD\VDWDZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHRI GHJUHHV&HOVLXV
6W6FK
6SHFLILF$VSHFWVIRU+RQH\ +RQH\ 9 1RGHFUHDVHRIUHVLGXHVDVDUHVXOWRISKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV UHVLGXHVWKDWJRLQWRKRQH\ODUJHO\UHPDLQWKHUH 9 5HGXFWLRQRIUHVLGXHVPDLQO\GXHWRGLOXWLRQHIIHFWV IXQFWLRQRIKRQH\\LHOG DQGSRVVLEO\FKHPLFDOGHFD\ 9 7KHVHYDULDEOHVODUJHO\XQSUHGLFWDEOHVHDVRQDO JHRJUDSKLFDOGLIIHUHQFHVHWF DQGQRWGLUHFWO\UHODWHGWR DVSHFLILDEOHSHULRGRIWLPH 9 7KHUHIRUHWKHRQO\IHDVLEOH:3LQKRQH\LVD³QLO³ :3 ZKLFKLVVXSSRUWHGE\DUDQJHRIVXLWDEOHVWXGLHV GHPRQVWUDWLQJWKDWUHVLGXHVDUHEHORZ05/VXQGHU YDULRXVYDULDEOHFRQGLWLRQVRIJRRGEHHNHHSLQJSUDFWLFH
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
$QDO\WLFDOPHWKRGV
6HWWLQJRI05/VDQGHVWDEOLVKPHQWRI ZLWKGUDZDOSHULRGVUHTXLUHVDYDLODELOLW\RI DQDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGVWRPRQLWRUUHVLGXHV QR05/ZLWKRXU DQDO\WLFDOPHWKRG %DVLFYDOLGDWLRQFULWHULDIRUPHWKRGVDUH SUHVHQWHGKHUHDIWHU
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV ,WLV QRW SRVVLEOH WRVHW PD[LPXP UHVLGXH OLPLWV ZLWKRXW DQDQDO\WLFDO FRQWURO PHWKRG ´ 9ROXPH ´ 9 ´ $SSOLFDQWV VKRXOG >«@PDNH DYDLODEOH DYDOLGDWHG DQDO\WLFDO PHWKRGZKLFK FDQ VHUYH DVDEDVLV IRU RIILFLDO UHVLGXH PRQLWRULQJ DQGVXUYHLOODQFH UHJXODWRU\ PHWKRG ´ 9 ´ 7KLV PHWKRG VKRXOG GHWHUPLQH WKHPDUNHU UHVLGXHRQZKLFK WKH 05/VDUH EDVHG´ 9 $PHWKRG LV UHTXLUHG IRU DOOWDUJHW WLVVXHV LQFOPLONHJJV KRQH\LI DSSOLFDEOH
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 9DOLGDWLRQ ¾ 0HWKRGYDOLGDWLRQSHUIRUPHGE\DSSOLFDQWV VHHNLQJ HVWDEOLVKPHQWRI05/VWKHZRUNLVGRQHLQWKHLURZQ ODEVFRQWUDFWVODEV ¾ (0($SHUIRUPLQJD´ GHVNUHYLHZµ RIYDOLGDWLRQ SDUDPHWHUVWRDVVHVVLWVVXLWDELOLW\IRUGHWHFWLQJTXDQWLI\LQJ UHVLGXHVDWFRQFHQWUDWLRQRILQWHUHVW05/ ¾ 0HWKRGVDUHPDGHDYDLODEOHWR&RPPXQLW\UHIHUHQFH ODERUDWRULHV&5/V DQGQDWLRQDOUHIHUHQFHODERUDWRULHV ZKHUHWKH\DUHSXWLQWRSUDFWLFH UHYDOLGDWHGIXUWKHU DGDSWHG WRPHHW WKH QHHGV RIWKHVH ODERUDWRULHV
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 9DOLGDWLRQ
9DOLGDWLRQFULWHULD DFFRUGLQJ WRÅ 9ROXPH ´ 6SHFLILFLW\ $FFXUDF\
0HWKRG 9DOLGDWLRQ &ULWHULD
3UHFLVLRQ /LPLWRI'HWHFWLRQ /LPLWRI4XDQWLILFDWLRQ 3UDFWLFDELOLW\$SSOLFDELOLW\ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\,QWHUIHUHQFH
6WDELOLW\RIDQDO\WH
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 9DOLGDWLRQ
7HVWPDWHULDOV %ODQNWLVVXHV Å VSLNHG´ ZLWK WKH WHVW VXEVWDQFH 25 &HUWLILHG UHIHUHQFH PDWHULDOV LI DYDLODEOH 25 ,QFXUUHG WLVVXHV IURPWUHDWHG DQLPDOV LI DSSOLFDEOH
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 6SHFLILFLW\
6SHFLILFLW\ $ELOLW\WRDQDO\VH DQDQDO\WHXQHTXLYRFDOO\LQ SUHVHQFHRIRWKHUFRPSRQHQWVDV«« 9 FKHPLFDOO\ UHODWHG FRPSRQHQWV 9 KRPRORJXHVDQDORJXHV RU PHWDEROLWHV 9 DOVR QDWXUDOO\ RFFXUULQJ DJHQWV PD\ LQWHUIHUH
3UDFWLFDO ZRUN 9 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH QXPEHU RIEODQN VDPSOHV 9 DOVR EODQN VDPSOHV ©VSLNHG ª ZLWK SRVVLEO\ LQWHUIHULQJ FRPSRXQGV
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV $FFXUDF\
$FFXUDF\ $JUHHPHQWEHWZHHQPHDVXUHGYDOXHDQGYDOXHDFFHSWHGHLWKHU DV´ WUXHYDOXHµ RUD´ DFFHSWHGUHIHUHQFHYDOXHµ
3ULQFLSDO OLPLWDWLRQV 9 6\VWHPDWLF HUURUV ELDV 9 5DQGRP HUURUV LHRFFDWLRQDO ORZ UHFRYHU\
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV $FFXUDF\
$FFXUDF\ $FFXUDF\H[SUHVVHGDV 9 ´ 5HFRYHU\µ ´ VSLNHGµ VWDQGDUGV 9 ´ 7UXHQHVVµ FHUWLILHGUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOV
3UDFWLFDO ZRUN PXWXDOO\ LQGHSHQGDQW VDPSOHV IRUWLILHG DW [[05/ [[05/ [[05/
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV $FFXUDF\
$FFXUDF\ &DOFXODWHG DV 0HDVXUHG9DOXH 7DUJHW9DOXH
$FFHSWHG /LPLWV &RQWHQW 0DVV IUDFWLRQ JNJ !JNJ
/LPLWV DQG DQGUDQJH IRU PRVW 05/V
)RUODUJHQXPEHUV RIPHDVXUHPHQWV WKH DFFXUDF\ DSSURDFKHV WKH V\VWHPDWLF HUURU
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 3UHFLVLRQ
3UHFLVLRQ &ORVHQHVV RIDJUHHPHQW EHWZHHQ UHSHDWHGDQDO\VLV PHDVXUHRIWKHGLVSHUVLRQRIUDQGRPHUURUV 5HSHDWDELOLW\ LQWUDDVVD\RULQWUDGD\YDULDELOLW\ZLWKLQDVKRUWWLPH :LWKLQODERUDWRU\UHSURGXFLELOLW\ LQWHUDVVD\RUEHWZHHQGD\YDULDELOLW\LQRQHDQGWKHVDPH ODERUDWRU\ 1RWQHFHVVDU\IRU05/DSSOLFDWLRQV
5HSURGXFLELOLW\ SUHFLVLRQEHWZHHQODERUDWRULHVXVXDOO\DSSOLHGWR VWDQGDUGL]DWLRQRIPHWKRGRORJ\
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 3UHFLVLRQ
3UHFLVLRQ 5HSHDWDELOLW\ $PHDVXUH IRU UHSHDWDELOLW\ LV WKH UHODWLYHVWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ RU FRHIILFLHQW RIYDULDWLRQ &9
3UDFWLFDO ZRUN VHULHV RIUHFRYHU\ DQDO\VHVQ OHYHO LQFO [WR[05/
$FFHSWHG /LPLWV &RQWHQW 0DVV IUDFWLRQ JNJ !JNJDQGJNJ !JNJDQGJNJ !JNJ
&9
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 3UHFLVLRQ
3UHFLVLRQ :LWKLQODERUDWRU\UHSURGXFLELOLW\ :LWKLQODERUDWRU\UHSURGXFLELOLW\&9VVKRXOGQRWH[FHHGOHYHOV FDOFXODWHGE\+RUZLW] HTXDWLRQ&9 ORJ&
3UDFWLFDO ZRUN VHULHV RIUHFRYHU\ DQDO\VHVQ OHYHO LQFO [WR[05/ GLIIHUHQW RSHUDWRUVGLIIHUHQW HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV«
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 3UHFLVLRQ
$FFHSWHG/LPLWV 5HSUHVHQWDWLYHZLWKLQODERUDWRU\&9VIRUTXDQWLWDWLYHDVVD\VDUH &RQWHQW0DVVIUDFWLRQ &9 JNJ JNJ
5XOH IRUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVORZHUWKDQJNJWKH&9VVKRXOGEH DVORZDVSUDFWLFDEOHSRVVLEOHZLWKRXWH[FHHGLQJWKH&9VJLYHQE\ WKH+RUZLW] HTXDWLRQ
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV $FFXUDF\ 3UHFLVLRQ 9DOLGDWLRQ 5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDFFXUDF\ DQGSUHFLVLRQ
,Q D F F X U D WH LP S UH F LV H
,Q D F F X UD WH E X W S UH F LV H
$ F F X U D WH E X W LP S UH F LV H
$FFXUDWH$1'3UHFLVH
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV /LPLWRI'HWHFWLRQ
/LPLWRI'HWHFWLRQ/2' /RZHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQWKDWFDQEHGLVWLQJXLVKHGIURP EDFNJURXQGEXWQRWQHFHVVDULO\TXDQWLILHG 3UDFWLFDO:RUN 9 $ULWKPHWLF PHDQ RIFRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQEODQNVDPSOHV Q SOXVWKUHH WLPHV WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ 9 2WKHU PHWKRGV RIFDOFXODWLRQ SURYLGLQJ VXEVWDQWLDOO\ WKH VDPH VWDWLVWLFDO FHUWDLQW\ PD\ EH XVHG
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV /LPLWRI4XDQWLILFDWLRQ
/LPLWRI4XDQWLILFDWLRQ/24 7KH OLPLW RITXDQWLILFDWLRQ VKRXOG QRW EH JUHDWHU WKDQ KDOI WKH 05/WKH ORZHVW OLPLW WREH Å IXOO\´ YDOLGDWHG LV ô [ 05/
$FFHSWHG/LPLWV 7KHOLPLWRITXDQWLILFDWLRQLVWKHORZHVWDPRXQWRIDQDO\WHLQD VDPSOHZKLFKFDQEHTXDQWLWDWLYHO\GHWHUPLQHGZLWKVXLWDEOH SUHFLVLRQDQGDFFXUDF\
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV /24/2'
9DOLGDWLRQ²/2'/24 %DFNJURXQG /24 YDOLGDWHG ô 05/
/2' PHDQ%*6'
%DFNJURXQGQRLVH
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV
6WDELOLW\
6WDELOLW\RIWKH$QDO\WH VKRXOG EH WHVWHG LQVROXWLRQ GXULQJ DQDO\VLVVWRUDJH HJZRUNLQJ VROXWLRQV LQPDWUL[ GXULQJ VDPSOH SUHSDUDWLRQVWRUDJH LQH[WUDFW GXULQJ VWRUDJHDQDO\VLV
3UDFWLFDO:RUN ([DPSOH$QDO\WHLQPDWUL[IRUWLILHG EODQN VDPSOHV DW OHYHO RILQWHUHVW XQGHU VWRUDJH FRQGLWLRQV & $QDO\VLV DW WLPHDIWHU ZHHNZHHNV« DVORQJDV UHTXLUHG HJZHHNV
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 6XVFHSWLELOLW\
6XVFHSWLELOLW\WR,QWHUIHUHQFH $Q\ YDULDWLRQZKLFK FRXOG DIIHFW WKH DQDO\WLFDO UHVXOWV ««QRQVSHFLILF LQIOXHQFHV RQWKH DQDO\WLFDO UHVXOWV RIFHUWDLQ H[SHULPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV HJ VWDELOLW\ RIUHDJHQWVS+WHPSHUDWXUH FRPSRVLWLRQ RIWKH PDWUL[ HWF
6W6FK
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV 3UDFWLFDELOLW\ $SSOLFDELOLW\
3UDFWLFDELOLW\ $SSOLFDELOLW\ 3UDFWLFDELOLW\ 5HIHUV WRWKH VFRSH RIWKH PHWKRG DQGLV GHWHUPLQHG E\ UHTXLUHPHQWVVXFKDVDYDLODELOLW\ RIVWDQGDUGVUHDJHQWV DQG HTXLSPHQWVDPSOH WKURXJK SXWWLPH RU FRVWV $SSOLFDELOLW\ 5HIHUVWRWKHVSHFLHVWKHPDWULFHVHJOLYHU PDWUL[ FRQGLWLRQVFRQFHQWUDWLRQUDQJHHWFIRUZKLFKPHWKRGFDQEH DSSOLHGDVGHVFULEHGRUZLWKPLQRUPRGLILFDWLRQV $SSOLFDELOLW\VKRXOGEHGHPRQVWUDWHGIRUDOOPDWULFHV IRUZKLFK05/VH[LVW
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU $QDO\WLFDO 0HWKRGV &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH
&DOLEUDWLRQFXUYH $W\SLFDOO\ FDOLEUDWLRQFXUYH 9 DW OHDVWHTXDO\ VSDFHG FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQFO© ª 9 'HVFULSWLRQRIZRUNLQJ UDQJH 9 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RIWKHPDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOJRRGQHVV RIILWLQWHUFHSWVORSH
3UDFWLFDO ZRUN OHYHOV RIFRQFHQWUDWLRQV² ² ² ² [05/
6W6FK
6XPPDU\RI9DOLGDWLRQ7RROV
/,0,76
63(&,),&,7<
$&&85$&<
'(7(&7,21
48$17,),&$7,21
5(3($7$%,/,7<
6XVFHSWLELOLW\
:,7+,1 /$%25$725< 5(52'8&,%,/,7<
6WDELOLW\
35(&,6,21
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
)UHTXHQWO\XVHGPHWKRGV 0HWKRGVQHHGWRPHHWFULWHULDIRUFRQILUPDWRU\PHWKRGV 7\SLFDOPHWKRGROLJLHV /&RU *&ZLWK PDVVVSHFWURPHWULF GHWHFWLRQ /&IOXRUHVFHQFH /&'$' /&899,6 'HYHORSPHQW RIVFUHHQLQJ PHWKRGQRWUHTXLUHG 6DPHFULWHULD IRU PHWKRGV XVHG LQUHVLGXH WULDOV
6W6FK
/D\VGRZQUXOHVIRU
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ YDOLGDWLRQ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RIDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGVIRUGUXJUHVLGXHV 05/DQGEDQQHGFRPSRXQGV
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
8VHU6DIHW\ (0($&903'UDIW*XLGHOLQHRQ 8VHU6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\ 0HGLFLQDO3URGXFWV
6W6FK
/HJDO%DVLV 'LUHFWLYH´VDIHW\ GRFXPHQWDWLRQ VKDOO VKRZWKHSRWHQWLDO ULVNV ZKLFK PD\ UHVXOW IURP WKHH[SRVXUH RIKXPDQ EHLQJV WR WKHPHGLFLQDO SURGXFWIRU H[DPSOH GXULQJ LWV DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ WR WKHDQLPDO´ DQG³WKHGRVVLHUVKDOO LQFXOGH D WKRURXJK GLVFXVVLRQ RIDQ\ ULVNV IRU SHUVRQV SUHSDULQJWKHPHGLFLQDO SURGXFWRU DGPLQLVWHULQJ LW WR DQLPDOVIROORZHG E\ SURSRVDOV IRU DSSURSULDWH PHDVXUHV WR UHGXFH VXFK ULVNV´ 6LQFH -XO\ &903*XLGHOLQH RQ 8VHU 6DIHW\
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
*HQHUDO3ULQFLSOHV 9 8VHUVDIHW\DVVHVVPHQWLVUHTXLUHGIRUDOOYHWHULQDU\ SURGXFWVWREHPDUNHWHG 9 8VHUVDIHW\LVDVVHVVHGLQWKHFRQWH[WRIJUDQWLQJ PDUNHWLQJDXWKRULVDWLRQ 9 8VHUVDIHW\LVSURGXFWVSHFLILF DQGFRQVLGHUVDFWLYH LQJUHGLHQWV DQGDOORWKHUH[FLSLHQWV SUHVHQWLQWKH IRUPXODWLRQ 9 8VHUVDIHW\UHODWHVWRDOOSHUVRQV LQFKDUJHRIWUHDWLQJWKH DQLPDOVDQGWKRVHKDQGOLQJWKHSURGXFWVDQGWUHDWHG DQLPDOVYHWHULQDU\VXUJHRQVQXUVHVIDUPHUVIDUP ZRUNHUVDQLPDOKDQGOHUVSHWRZQHUVDQGFKLOGUHQHWF
6W6FK
*HQHUDO3ULQFLSOHVFRQWG
9 8VHUVDIHW\DVVHVVPHQWLQYROYHVWZRPDMRUDVVHVVPHQW VWHSV LGHQWLILFDWLRQFKDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIUHOHYDQW KD]DUGV DQG WKHDVVHVVPHQWRIOLNHOLKRRGRIH[SRVXUH IURPDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIWKHSURGXFWDQGFRQWDFWZLWK WUHDWHGDQLPDOV 9 8VHUVDIHW\LVJHQHUDOO\PDQDJHGE\ DYRLGDQFHRI XQQHFHVVDU\H[SRVXUH ZLWKDGYLFHRQVDIHVWRUDJH KDQGOLQJDQGGLVSRVDORIWKHSURGXFWZDUQLQJSKUDVHVLQ WKHSURGXFWOLWHUDWXUHVKRXOGSUHYHQWULVNVXQGHU IRUHVHHDEOHFLUFXPVWDQFHVRIXVH
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
'DWDUHTXLUHPHQWV 8VHUVDIHW\DVVHVVPHQWLVPDLQO\EDVHGRQVFLHQWLILF LQIRUPDWLRQFRPSLOHGLQ3DUW$6DIHW\'RFXPHQWDWLRQ RI WKHPDUNHWLQJDSSOLFDWLRQGRVVLHU 6HFWLRQVRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQGRVVLHUWKDWDUHSDUWLFXODUO\ UHOHYDQWWRXVHUVDIHW\DUH ¾3KDUPDFRNLQHWLFV$'0( ¾*HQHUDOWR[LFRORJ\W\SHDQGVHYHULW\RIKD]DUGV ¾6LQJOHGRVHWR[LFLW\ KD]DUGVRIILQDOSURGXFWE\HJ GHUPDORULQKDODWLRQH[SRVXUH ¾5HSURGXFWLYHWR[LFLW\VLJQLILFDQFHRIWHVWUHVXOWVLQ YLHZRIXVHUVDIHW\
6W6FK
7R[LFLW\'DWD 7KH WR[LFLW\GDWDVKRXOGSURYLGHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKH SRVVLEOHDGYHUVHHIIHFWVZLWKDYLHZWROLNHO\H[SRVXUH VFHQDULRV ¾%RWKORFDODQGV\VWHPLFHIIHFWVQHHGWREHWDNHQLQWR DFFRXQW ¾7KHV\VWHPLF HIIHFWVIRUDFWLYHLQJUHGLHQWV ¾)RUORFDOWR[LFLW\WKHIRUPXODWHGWHVWDUWLFOHV ¾7KHGRVHUHVSRQVHUHODWLRQVKLSV12$(//2$(/ ¾7R[LFLW\VWXGLHVVKRXOGLGHDOO\XVHWKHVDPHURXWHVRI H[SRVXUHDQGGXUDWLRQDVLQWKHDQWLFLSDWHGH[SRVXUH VFHQDULRV
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0LQLPXP7R[LFLW\'DWD5HTXLUHPHQWV 0LQLPDOUHTXLUHGWR[LFLW\GDWDDFFRUGLQJWR(0($&903 5HOHYDQWURXWHRI H[SRVXUH
0LQLPDOUHTXLUHGLQIRUPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJ IRUWKHZKROHSURGXFWDFWLYH IRUDFWLYHLQJUHGLHQWV LQJUHGLHQWVSOXVH[FLSLHQWV
2UDO
$FXWHRUDOWR[LFLW\
'HUPDO
6NLQLUULWDWLRQ 6NLQVHQVLWLVDWLRQ 3KRWRWR[LFLW\
3DUHQWHUDO LHVHOI LQMHFWLRQ
$FXWHSDUHQWHUDO WR[LFLW\ ORFDOV\VWHPLF
,QKDODWRU\
5HVSLUDWRU\LUULWDWLRQ 5HVSLUDWRU\VHQVLWLVDWLRQ
2FXODU
H\HLUULWDWLRQ
$OOUHOHYDQWWR[LFLW\GDWDDQG KXPDQGDWDZKHQDYDLODEOH LQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKH UHTXLUHPHQWVIRUGRVVLHU SDUWV,,,$WKURXJK,,,$
H\HLUULWDWLRQ
,IWKHWHVWDUWLFOHLVLUULWDWLQJWRWKHVNLQLWLVDVVXPHGWKDWLWLVDOVRLUULWDWLQJWRWKHH\HVDQGQRH\H LUULWDWLRQWHVWKDVWREHSHUIRUPHGIRUVNLQLUULWDWLQJWHVWDUWLFOHV
6W6FK
([SRVXUH6FHQDULRV 7KHH[SRVXUHVFHQDULRFRPSULVHVDGHVFULSWLRQRI ¾WKHW\SHRIXVHU ¾WKHURXWHVRIH[SRVXUH ¾WKHFRPSRQHQWVRIDSURGXFWWRZKLFKWKHXVHULV H[SRVHG ¾WKHOLNHOLKRRGRIH[SRVXUH ¾7KHW\SHUDWHH[WHQWGXUDWLRQLQWHUYDODQGIUHTXHQF\ RIH[SRVXUH
6W6FK
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0DQDJHPHQW2SWLRQV 7KHJXLGHOLQHGLIIHUHQWLDWHVEHWZHHQQRQSURIHVVLRQDODQG SURIHVVLRQDOXVHUV 1RQSURIHVVLRQDOXVHUV SHUVRQLQWKHJHQHUDO SXEOLFFRQVXPHUVFDQFRPHLQWRFRQWDFWZLWKWKH903 7KHULVNVKRXOGEHDFFHSWDEOHIRUXQSURWHFWHGQRQ SURIHVVLRQDOVRUZLWKRQO\YHU\OLPLWHGSURWHFWLRQ 3URIHVVLRQDOXVHUVHJYHWHULQDULDQIDUPHUEUHHGHUHWF :KHQWKHUHLVDQXQDFFHSWDEOHKLJKULVNIRUWKH XQSURWHFWHGSURIHVVLRQDOXVHUPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFHWKHULVN WRDQDFFHSWDEOHOHYHOFDQEHSURSRVHG
6W6FK
*HVXQGKHLWOLFKH%HZHUWXQJYRQSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPHQ6XEVWDQ]HQt/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLWYRQ5ÙFNVWÁQGHQYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0DQDJHPHQW2SWLRQV ([DPSOHV 2SWLRQVZKHQULVNLVXQDFFHSWDEO\KLJKIRUXQSURWHFWHG SURIHVVLRQDOPD\EH ¾ UHVWULFWXVHUFDWHJRU\HJRQO\YHWHULQDULDQVH[FOXGLQJ JURXSVDWULVNHJVHQVLWL]HGSUHJQDQWHWF ¾ UHVWULFWPRGHRIDSSOLFDWLRQHJSRXURQLQVWHDGRIVSUD\LQJ ¾ UHVWULFWILHOGRIXVHHJRXWGRRUXVHRQO\ ¾ FKDQJHIRUPXODWLRQHJUHDG\WRXVHUDWKHUWKDQFRQFHQWUDWH ¾ UHSODFHVXEVWDQFHVRIFRQFHUQZLWKOHVVGDQJHURXVRQHVHWF ¾ PRGLI\SDFNDJLQJHJUHGXFHGSDFNVL]HPRGLILFDWLRQRI ODEHOOLQJPRGLILFDWLRQRIPHDVXUHVIRUWKHSURWHFWLRQRI XVHUVHJJHQHUDOFRQWUROVOLNHYHQWLODWLRQRU33(
6W6FK
7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\ IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 3URGXFWV9,&+*/
*HVLQH+DKQ )HGHUDO2IĥFHRI&RQVXPHU3URWHFWLRQDQG)RRG6DIHW\%9/ %HUOLQ &RUUHVSRQGHQFHWR'U*+DKQ%9/5HI0DXHUVWUD¼Ht'%HUOLQ*HUPDQ\ 7HOHPDLOJHVLQHKDKQ#EYOEXQGGH
3UHVHQWDWLRQ
+LVWRU\ 3URFHVV .H\LVVXHV &RQFOXVLRQVDQGRXWORRN
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO3URGXFWV9,&+*/
+RZGLGLWVWDUW" (8 (YDOXDWLRQRI7$6 /RFDOWROHUDQFHRILQWUDPDPSURGXFWV 86$7$6JXLGHOLQHIRUQHZDQLPDOGUXJV 7$6DQGGUXJHIIHFWLYHQHVVVWXGLHVIRU DQWLPLFURELDOPDVWLWLVSURGXFWV 3URWRFROIRUFOLQLFDOHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQG7$6 WULDOV -3 *XLGHOLQHVIRU7R[LFLW\6WXGLHVIRU UHJLVWUDWLRQRIQHZDQLPDOGUXJV
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
+RZGLGLWVWDUW" 'LIIHUHQFHVLQWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRU7$6 WHVWLQJLGHQWLILHG
± ([WHQVLYHXVHRISKDUPWR[EDFNJURXQG LQIRUPDWLRQ(8 ± 'UXJWROHUDQFHWHVWLQJDQGWR[LFLW\WHVWLQJLQ WKHWDUJHWVSHFLHV)'$ ± 6WXG\SURWRFROVH[WHQVLYHOLVWRILWHPVWREH WHVWHG)'$ ± 6SHFLDOVWXGLHVHJUHSURGXFWLYHVDIHW\-3 86
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
+RZDQGZKHQGLGLWVWDUW" 0DQGDWHIURP9,&+6& 'HYHORSLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\KDUPRQL]HGJXLGDQFHIRU 7$6VWXGLHVIRUYHWHULQDU\SURGXFWVLQFO SKDUPDFHXWLFDOVDQGELRORJLFDOV $JUHHRQWKHPLQLPXPUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUWKH VDIHW\GDWDSDFNDJHZLWKDQREMHFWLYHWRDVVXUH ZHOOEHLQJRIWKHWDUJHWDQLPDO 6SHFLHVVSHFLILFIRUPXODWLRQVSHFLILFJXLGHOLQHV LIFRQVLGHUHGQHFHVVDU\
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
7KHSURFHVV 9,&+:*VWDUWHGZRUNLQ1RY :*FRQVHQVXVDFKLHYHGLQ6HSWVWHS &903DGRSWLRQIRUUHOHDVHIRUFRQVXOWDWLRQLQ 1RYVWHS :*FRQVHQVXVLQ-XQHVWHS &903DSSURYDOLQ6HSWVWHS 'DWHFRPLQJLQWRHIIHFW-XO\
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO3URGXFWV9,&+*/
7DEOHRIFRQWHQW
,1752'8&7,21 ± 2EMHFWLYH ± %DFNJURXQG ± 6FRSH 0$5*,12)6$)(7< 678',(6 ± 6WDQGDUGV ± $QLPDOV ± ,933DQG5RXWHRI $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ ± 'RVH)UHTXHQF\DQG 'XUDWLRQRI$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ ± 6WXG\'HVLJQ ± 9DULDEOHV ± 6WDWLVWLFDO$QDO\VLV 6WXG\5HSRUWV
27+(5/$%25$725< 6$)(7<678'<'(6,*16 ± ,QMHFWLRQ6LWH6DIHW\ 6WXGLHV ± $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ6LWH6DIHW\ 6WXGLHV IRU'HUPDOO\ $SSOLHG7RSLFDO3URGXFW ± 5HSURGXFWLYH6DIHW\ 6WXGLHV ± 0DPPDU\*ODQG6DIHW\ 6WXGLHV 7$5*(7$1,0$/6$)(7< '$7$)520),(/'678',(6 5,6.$66(660(17,1 $1,0$/6$)(7< (9$/8$7,21 */266$5<
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
&RPSDULVRQWR(87$6JXLGHOLQH
0XFKORQJHU ,QIRUPDWLRQJLYHQLQPRUHGHWDLO ([KDXVWLYHOLVWRIYDULDEOHV 6SHFLDOVWXGLHVUHSURGXFWLYHVDIHW\PDPPDU\ JODQGVDIHW\ )OH[LELOLW\PDLQWDLQHG
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
$LPRI7$6VWXGLHV 7RSURYLGHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHVDIHW\RIWKH,933 LQWKHLQWHQGHGVSHFLHVXQGHUWKHSURSRVHG FRQGLWLRQVRIXVH 7RHVWDEOLVKDPDUJLQRIVDIHW\XQOHVVH[SRVXUH LVORZ 7RLGHQWLI\DGYHUVHHIIHFWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK RYHUGRVHVDQGRULQFUHDVHGGXUDWLRQRIXVHLI SRVVLEOH
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
6FRSH $QLPDOVSHFLHV &DWWOHVKHHSJRDWVZLQHKRUVHV &DWVGRJV 3RXOWU\FKLFNHQWXUNH\V )RURWKHUVSHFLHVQDWLRQDORUUHJLRQDOJXLGDQFH VKRXOGEHIROORZHG
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO3URGXFWV9,&+*/
0DUJLQRI6DIHW\VWXG\ 6WDQGDUG ,QFRQIRUPLW\ZLWKWKHSULQFLSOHVRI*/3 &RQFHSWRI*03 DVDSSURSULDWHIRUQHZDQLPDO GUXJV $QLPDOV +HDOWK\\RXQJPDWXUHDQLPDOVXQOHVVWKH SURGXFWLVIRUXVHLQ\RXQJLPPDWXUHDQLPDOV $GGLWLRQDOVWXGLHVLQVHQVLWLYHVXESRSXODWLRQVLI LGHQWLILHG $QLPDOZHOIDUHFRQVLGHUDWLRQLVHVVHQWLDO
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
0DUJLQRI6DIHW\VWXG\ ,933DQGURXWHRIDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ &RPPHUFLDOIRUPXODWLRQ &RPSDUDWLYHEULGJLQJ VWXGLHVLIQHFHVVDU\ 'RVLQJVKRXOGIROORZWKHSURSRVHGXVH FRQGLWLRQV ,IPXOWLSOHURXWHVDUHSURSRVHGWKHRQHPRVW OLNHO\WRFDXVHDGYHUVHHIIHFWVVKRXOGEH VHOHFWHG
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0DUJLQRI6DIHW\VWXG\ 'RVHOHYHOV 8QOHVVRWKHUZLVHMXVWLILHGE\SKDUPWR[SURSHUWLHV RIWKH$3,DQGWKHSURSRVHGXVHRIWKHSURGXFW ± ;DQGWZRPXOWLSOHVRIWKHXVHGRVHLQPRVW FDVHV;DQG; ;GHILQHGDVWKHKLJKHVWGRVHWKDWZLOOEHVWDWHGLQWKH SURGXFWOLWHUDWXUH
5HFRPPHQGDWLRQEDVHGRQDVFLHQWLILFVXUYH\LQWKH 9,&+UHJLRQV(886DQG-DSDQ
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
0DUJLQRI6DIHW\VWXG\ )UHTXHQF\DQGGXUDWLRQ 8QOHVVRWKHUZLVHMXVWLILHGDWOHDVWWLPHVWKH UHFRPPHQGHGGXUDWLRQRIXVHXSWRPD[GD\V VLQJOHXVH FRQVHFXWLYHLQWHUYDOVDVGHWHUPLQHG E\WKHSKDUPDFRORJLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHSURGXFW GDLO\XVH;WKHSURSRVHGGXUDWLRQ LQWHUPLWWHQWXVHWUHDWPHQWVDWWKHUHFRPPHQGHG LQWHUYDO )RUSURGXFWVLQWHQGHGIRUXVHORQJHUWKDQPRQWKV GXUDWLRQXSWRPRQWKVRUORQJHULIDSSURSULDWH
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO3URGXFWV9,&+*/
0DUJLQRI6DIHW\VWXG\ 6WXG\GHVLJQ 5DQGRPLVDWLRQDQGEOLQGLQJ PRVWLPSRUWDQW WR DYRLGELDV $WOHDVWDQLPDOVJURXSIP 3RWHQWLDOLPSDFWRIJURXSKRXVLQJ WREH FRQVLGHUHG 3HUVRQQHOFROOHFWLQJGDWDLQFOXGLQJJURVVSRVW PRUWHPUHVXOWVVKRXOGEHPDVNHG
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
0DUJLQRI6DIHW\VWXG\ 9DULDEOHV 3K\VLFDOH[DPLQDWLRQVDQGREVHUYDWLRQV &OLQLFDOSDWKRORJ\WHVWVWREHVHOHFWHGGHSHQGLQJRQWKH QDWXUHRIWKH,933DQGWKHLQWHQGHGSRSXODWLRQ 1HFURSV\DQGKLVWRSDWKRORJ\
± 1HZ$3,$OODQLPDOVLQDOOGRVHJURXSV ± 2WKHUV$VDPLQLPXPDQLPDOVRIWKHKLJKHVWDQGFRQWUROJURXS GHWHUPLQH12$(/LIOHVLRQVDUHIRXQG $OWHUQDWLYHVFKHGXOHVXEVHWVRIDQLPDOVVHOHFWHGDWUDQGRP SULRUWRWKHVWXG\ ,933VZLWKZHOOGRFXPHQWHGEURDGPDUJLQRIVDIHW\PD\EH GLVSHQVHGIURPSRVWPRUWHPH[DP
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0DUJLQRI6DIHW\VWXG\ 6WDWLVWLFV 8VHRIGHVFULSWLYHVWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGV 3UHVHQWDWLRQRIUHVXOWVLQWH[WWDEOHVDQGRU JUDSKV 6WDWLVWLFDOPRGHOVVKRXOGEHVHOHFWHGEDVHG XSRQWKHVWXG\GHVLJQDQGWKHQDWXUHRI UHVSRQVHYDULDEOHV 6WDWHPHQWRIVLJQLILFDQFHOHYHOVLV UHFRPPHQGHG &OLQLFDOVLJQLILFDQFHRIVWDWLVWLFDOO\QRQ VLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHG
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
,QMHFWLRQ6LWH6DIHW\VWXGLHV ;GRVHGXUDWLRQURXWHDQGPD[YROXPH 6DOLQHFRQWURODWWKHVDPHYROXPH $SSUWLPHUHTXLUHGWRUHWXUQWRFOLQLFDOO\ DFFHSWDEOHFRQGLWLRQV ,9URXWH± H[WUDYHQRXVDGPLQLVWUDWLRQWREH FRQVLGHUHG &OLQLFDOVLJQVVLJQVRIORFDOLQIODPPDWLRQ &.DQG$67KLVWRSDWKRORJ\LIFOLQLFDOVLJQV LQGLFDWLYHRILQMHFWLRQVLWHUHDFWLRQV
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO3URGXFWV9,&+*/
$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ6LWH6DIHW\VWXGLHVIRUWRSLFDO SURGXFWV 'RVDJHDVSURSRVHG $SSUWLPHUHTXLUHGWRUHWXUQWRFOLQLFDOO\ DFFHSWDEOHFRQGLWLRQV &OLQLFDOVLJQVORFDOVLJQVRILQIODPPDWLRQ +LVWRSDWKRORJ\LIFOLQLFDOVLJQVLQGLFDWLYHRI DSSOLFDWLRQVLWHUHDFWLRQV 2UDOGRVLQJVWXG\DWWKHPD[SURSRVHGGRVHLI DFFLGHQWDOLQJHVWLRQLVOLNHO\WRRFFXU
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
5HSURGXFWLYHVDIHW\VWXGLHV 7RLGHQWLI\DGYHUVHHIIHFWVRQPDOHIHPDOH UHSURGXFWLRQSHUIRUPDQFHDQGYLDELOLW\RI RIIVSULQJ $WOHDVWKHDOWK\LQWDFWDQLPDOVSHUVH[SHU WUHDWPHQW 8VXDOO\DQG;GRVH 'DWDGHULYHGIURPODEDQLPDOVPD\EH FRQVLGHUHGLISKDUPDFRNLQHWLFSURILOHVDUH FRPSDUDEOH 7KHDEVHQFHRIVWXGLHVLQWKHWDUJHWVSHFLHV VKRXOGEHUHIOHFWHGLQWKHSURGXFWOLWHUDWXUH *HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
0DPPDU\JODQGVDIHW\VWXGLHV ,933VLQWHQGHGIRUODFWDWLQJQRQODFWDWLQJ DQLPDOV (YDOXDWLRQRIDFXWHLQIODPPDWRU\HIIHFWV*/3
± ODFWDWLQJDQLPDOVLQHDUO\WRPLGODFWDWLRQ ± ;GRVHTXDUWHUIUHTXHQF\DQGGXUDWLRQDVSURSRVHG ± 3DUDPHWHUV 3K\VLFDOH[DPLQDWLRQ46&&EDFWHULDOFXOWXUH 0LON\LHOGFRPSRVLWLRQDQGDSSHDUDQFH ± 2QHJURXSGHVLJQ3DUDOOHOJURXSGHVLJQ
(YDOXDWLRQRIFKURQLFLQIODPPDWRU\HIIHFWVRI ,933VIRUQRQODFWDWLQJDQLPDOV*/3*&3
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
7$6GDWDIURPILHOGWULDOV &RQGXFWHGLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWK*&3 (YDOXDWHSRWHQWLDODGYHUVHHIIHFWVDWWKH LQWHQGHGGRVDJHUHJLPHLQDEURDGWDUJHW SRSXODWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDOGDWD PD\EHXVHGZKHUHGLVHDVH DQGKXVEDQGU\FRQGLWLRQVDUHVLPLODU 2EVHUYDWLRQDQGFDXVDOLW\GHWHUPLQDWLRQRI DGYHUVHHYHQWV
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
7DUJHW$QLPDO6DIHW\IRU9HWHULQDU\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO3URGXFWV9,&+*/
&RQFOXVLRQDQGRXWORRN &RQVHQVXVGRFXPHQWFRQVLGHUHGDVDEDODQFH RIWKHGLIIHUHQWYLHZVRIWKHDJHQFLHV 0LQLPXPUHTXLUHPHQWVIRU7$6HYDOXDWLRQ 6KRXOGPLQLPL]HDQLPDOWHVWLQJ 6KRXOGDYRLGGXSOLFDWLRQRIVLPLODUVWXGLHVLQ HDFKVWXGLHV $QLPDOZHOIDUHVKRXOGEHQHILW
*HVLQH+DKQ $XJXVW
%HXUWHLOXQJXQG¹EHUZDFKXQJ GHU5HVLVWHQ]VLWXDWLRQ EHLXQGQDFKGHU=XODVVXQJ YRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
&KULVWLQH6FKZDU] %XQGHVDPWIÙU9HUEUDXFKHUVFKXW]XQG/HEHQVPLWWHOVLFKHUKHLW%9/ %HUOLQ .RUUHVSRQGHQ]DQ'U&6FKZDU]%9/5HI0DXHUVWUD¼Ht%HUOLQ 7HOHPDLOFKULVWLQHVFKZDU]#EYOEXQGGH
%HXUWHLOXQJXQG¹EHUZDFKXQJGHU5HVLVWHQ]VLWXDWLRQEHLXQGQDFKGHU=XODVVXQJYRQ7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
%9/%HULFKWH]X7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOQ
.RQVHTXHQ]HQGLHVLFKDXIJUXQGGHU'DWHQVLWXDWLRQDXVGHP 3RVWPDUNHWLQJHUJHEHQN|QQHQ
±
(LQVFKUlQNXQJHQLQGHU)DFKLQIRUPDWLRQ
±
$XIODJHQHUWHLOXQJ
±
6WXIHQSODQYHUIDKUHQEHLEHJUQGHWHP9HUGDFKW